Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Crown Holdings' fourth-quarter 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加皇冠控股 2024 年第四季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, sir, and you may begin.

現在，我想將電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Clothier 先生。謝謝您，先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Elle, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you do not already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com.

謝謝你，Elle，早安。和我一起參加今天電話會議的還有總裁兼執行長 Tim Donahue。如果您尚未收到收益報告，您可以在我們的網站 crowncork.com 上查看。

On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2023 and subsequent filings.

在本次電話會議中，與收益發布一樣，我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果變化的因素的其他資訊包含在新聞稿和我們的 SEC 文件（包括 2023 年的 10-K 表格和後續文件）中。

Earnings for the quarter were $3.02 per share, including a $2.32 per share gain from the sale of Eviosys compared to a $0.27 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.59 compared to $1.24 in the prior year quarter. Net sales for the quarter were up 2% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a 4% increase in global beverage can volumes and increased food can volumes, offset by lower volumes in transit packaging.

本季收益為每股 3.02 美元，其中出售 Eviosys 收益為每股 2.32 美元，去年同期每股收益為 0.27 美元。調整後每股收益為 1.59 美元，去年同期為 1.24 美元。本季淨銷售額與去年同期相比成長了 2%，其中全球飲料罐銷量成長了 4%，食品罐銷量也有所增加，但運輸包裝銷量下降抵消了這一影響。

Segment income was $428 million in the quarter, compared to $382 million in the prior year, reflecting higher beverage can volumes in Americas and European Beverage, increased volumes in North American food, partially offset by macroeconomic headwinds impacting the Transit business.

本季分部營收為 4.28 億美元，而去年同期為 3.82 億美元，反映出美洲和歐洲飲料的飲料罐銷量增加，北美食品銷量增加，但部分抵消了宏觀經濟逆風對運輸業務的影響。

During the fourth quarter, the company received $338 million from the sale of Eviosys and recorded a gain of $275 million. For the year, the company delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $1.94 billion compared to the record $1.82 billion from 2023. The improvement was driven by 5% global beverage can growth and strong operational performance in all of our beverage businesses. The company delivered $814 million of free cash flow after contributing $100 million to annuitize the US and Canadian pension plans and making an estimated tax payment of $50 million related to the Eviosys sale.

第四季度，該公司透過出售 Eviosys 獲得了 3.38 億美元，並實現 2.75 億美元的收益。今年，該公司調整後的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 19.4 億美元，而 2023 年則達到創紀錄的 18.2 億美元。這一成長得益於全球飲料罐 5% 的成長和我們所有飲料業務的強勁營運表現。在向美國和加拿大退休金計畫年金化投入 1 億美元並支付與 Eviosys 出售相關的約 5,000 萬美元稅款後，該公司實現了 8.14 億美元的自由現金流。

The company returned $336 million to shareholders in 2024, $119 million in dividends and $217 million in share repurchases. With our record EBITDA, combined with the net debt reduction of $878 million, we reduced net leverage to 2.7 times at year end.

該公司在 2024 年向股東返還了 3.36 億美元，其中包括 1.19 億美元的股息和 2.17 億美元的股票回購。憑藉創紀錄的 EBITDA，加上 8.78 億美元的淨債務減少，我們在年底將淨槓桿率降低至 2.7 倍。

First-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per diluted shares are projected to be in the range of $1.20 to $1.30 a share, with full-year range projected to be $6.60 to $7 per share. The adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes net interest expense of approximately $355 million to $360 million, depending on the timing of share repurchases, exchange rates at current levels with the euro at $1.03 for the dollar, full-year tax rate of approximately 25%, depreciation of approximately $310 million, noncontrolling interest expense to be approximately $150 million. Dividend to noncontrolling interests are expected to be approximately $130 million.

預計 2025 年第一季調整後每股攤薄收益在 1.20 美元至 1.30 美元之間，全年調整後每股攤薄收益預計在 6.60 美元至 7 美元之間。調整後的全年獲利預期包括約 3.55 億美元至 3.6 億美元的淨利息支出（取決於股票回購時間）、當前歐元兌美元 1.03 的匯率、全年稅率約為 25%、折舊約為 3.1 億美元、非控制權益支出約為 1.5 億美元。預計非控股股東的股息約為 1.3 億美元。

We currently estimate 2025 full-year adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $800 million after $450 million of capital spending. At the end of '25, we would expect net leverage to be closer to our targeted leverage ratio of 2.5 times.

我們目前估計，在 4.5 億美元資本支出後，2025 年全年調整後自由現金流約為 8 億美元。到 25 年底，我們預期淨槓桿率將更接近我們的目標槓桿率 2.5 倍。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. As reflected in last night's earnings release and as Kevin just summarized, operating performance in the fourth quarter was well ahead of last year's fourth quarter, owing to stronger performances across our global beverage can businesses.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早安。正如昨晚的收益報告所反映的那樣，以及凱文剛才所總結的那樣，由於我們全球飲料罐業務表現強勁，第四季度的營運業績遠遠超過去年第四季。

Fourth-quarter beverage segment income improved 17% compared to last year due to a 4% increase in global shipments, high utilization across the network and continuous improvements in our manufacturing performance. In total, adjusted earnings per share were well ahead of last year even after accounting for the higher tax rate.

第四季飲料部門營收較去年同期成長了 17%，這得益於全球出貨量成長了 4%、整個網路利用率很高以及製造效能的持續改善。總體而言，即使考慮到較高的稅率，調整後的每股盈餘仍遠高於去年。

Americas Beverage reported an 8% income improvement over a very strong prior year fourth quarter on the back of a 5% shipment increase in the segment. North American volumes advanced 7% in the quarter with Brazil up 4%. For the full year, North American volumes were up 7% and Brazil 10%. We significantly outperformed the North American market again in 2024, which we believe, for the full year, was up about 1%. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect our North American volume performance to be largely in line with the market. In Brazil, we expect mid-single-digit growth in 2025.

美洲飲料公司報告稱，由於該部門出貨量增加了 5%，營收較去年第四季成長了 8%。本季北美銷量成長 7%，其中巴西銷量成長 4%。全年來看，北美銷量成長 7%，巴西銷量成長 10%。2024 年，我們的表現再次大幅超越北美市場，我們認為，全年北美市場將上漲約 1%。展望 2025 年，我們預期北美銷售表現將與市場基本保持一致。我們預計 2025 年巴西的成長率將達到中等個位數。

European Beverage volumes increased 8% in the fourth quarter, with shipments notably strong across the Mediterranean and in the UK. This led to significantly higher income in the segment compared to a soft prior year. For the full year, volumes improved 7% over 2023, leading to a record income performance for the segment. We continue to see the conversion to the aluminum can as the package of choice for beverages in Europe, and we expect 2025 to be another record year of earnings on the back of strong demand.

第四季歐洲飲料銷售成長了 8%，其中地中海地區和英國的出貨量特別強勁。與疲軟的前一年相比，這導致該部門的收入大幅增加。就全年而言，銷量較 2023 年增長了 7%，從而創下了該部門的收入表現紀錄。我們繼續看到鋁罐成為歐洲飲料的首選包裝，我們預計，在強勁需求的推動下，2025 年將是另一個創紀錄的獲利年份。

Income performance in Asia Pacific remained firm in the fourth quarter, leading to a 27% increase for the full year. Volumes in the fourth quarter were down 4%, mainly a result of our prior year actions to improve revenue quality. While consumer purchasing power across the region remains subdued, our cost reduction programs have positioned this segment well for future income improvement. Based on current demand forecasts, we expect the segment will be in line to better in 2025 compared to 2024.

第四季亞太地區營收表現維持穩健，全年營收成長27%。第四季的銷售量下降了 4%，這主要是由於我們去年採取措施提高收入品質所致。儘管該地區消費者的購買力仍然低迷，但我們的成本削減計劃已為這一領域未來的收入提高做好了準備。根據目前的需求預測，我們預計 2025 年該領域的表現將比 2024 年更好。

In line with our expectations, income in Transit Packaging was down as global industrial activity remains sluggish. We remain focused on tightly managing the business and generating cash-on-cash returns. Unlevered free cash flow in this business once again exceeded $250 million. The current outlook for 2025 is for flat to marginally up income performance, with the first six months reflecting current conditions.

正如我們預期的那樣，由於全球工業活動持續低迷，運輸包裝業務的收入下降。我們將繼續專注於嚴格管理業務和創造現金回報。該業務的無槓桿自由現金流再次超過2.5億美元。目前對 2025 年的預期是收入表現持平或略有上升，前六個月反映的是當前狀況。

Volume in North American food improved significantly compared to a soft prior year fourth quarter with the demand increase balanced across pet food, vegetables and soups. We expect income in the nonreportable businesses to be up about 10% in 2025.

與去年第四季的疲軟表現相比，北美食品的銷售量大幅提升，寵物食品、蔬菜和湯類的需求均有所成長。我們預計到 2025 年非報告業務的收入將成長約 10%。

Operationally, 2024 was a strong year. So to summarize, segment income was up almost $100 million, and we generated significant free cash flow. Asian production capacity has been rightsized. The sale of our remaining 20% interest in Eviosys was completed. We reduced future balance sheet risk by annuitizing almost all of the US and Canadian inactive defined benefit pension obligations. More than $300 million was returned to shareholders, and after all of that, net leverage was reduced to 2.7 times.

從營運角度來看，2024 年是強勁的一年。總而言之，分部收入增加了近 1 億美元，我們產生了大量自由現金流。亞洲的生產能力已得到適當調整。我們在 Eviosys 剩餘的 20% 權益的出售已經完成。我們透過將幾乎所有美國和加拿大的非活動固定收益退休金債務年金化來降低未來資產負債表風險。向股東返還了3億多美元，除此之外，淨槓桿率還降至2.7倍。

Looking forward, the company has a world-class manufacturing team, capable to serve the needs of a diverse set of global customers from an optimized footprint. We serve a well-balanced portfolio of attractive growing categories. The balance sheet is strong. We generate significant cash flow and are well positioned to continue to create and return value to our shareholders.

展望未來，公司擁有世界一流的製造團隊，能夠以優化的覆蓋範圍滿足全球不同客戶的需求。我們提供均衡、具吸引力的不斷成長的類別組合。資產負債表強勁。我們產生大量現金流，並有能力繼續為股東創造和回報價值。

And with that, Elle, we are now ready to take questions.

好了，Elle，現在我們可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Phil Ng, Jefferies.

(操作員指示) Phil Ng，傑富瑞 (Jefferies)。

Congrats on another very strong quarter. I guess, first out, Tim, Americas has been really strong, especially in the back half of 2024. What's driving some of the outperformance? Is continuous improvement manufacturing element of that?

恭喜您又一個非常強勁的季度。我想，首先，提姆，美洲市場一直非常強勁，尤其是在 2024 年下半年。哪些因素推動了其優異的表現？持續改善製造要素是其中之一嗎？

And when we look at to '25, what are some of the puts and takes off of a record year? You gave us some outlook on demand, but how do you kind of see earnings shaking out this year? And what are some of your customers saying at this point?

當我們展望 25 年時，創紀錄的一年有哪些進展和亮點？您給了我們一些關於需求的展望，但您認為今年的獲利情況會如何？那麼您的一些客戶現在怎麼說呢？

Yes. So I'll deal with the first part of the question first, Phil. I had a look at this. I know last year, the fourth quarter was the strongest quarter we had. The fourth quarter this year came within $5 million of being the strongest quarter. And certainly, the back half of both years, much stronger than we've traditionally experienced in the past, a lot of that due to continuing growing business in South America, that is Colombia and Brazil; their season a little different than our season; and again, exceptionally strong demand around the holiday season here in North America.

是的。因此我將首先處理問題的第一部分，菲爾。我看過這個。我知道去年第四季是我們表現最強勁的一個季度。今年第四季的銷售額距創歷史新高僅差 500 萬美元。當然，兩年下半年的表現都比我們過去經歷的要強勁得多，這很大程度上歸功於南美（即哥倫比亞和巴西）業務的持續增長；他們的季節與我們的季節略有不同；而且，北美假日期間的需求異常強勁。

I'm always a bit surprised. I was a little surprised the outperformance we had here in Q4 compared to the guidance we gave you previously was principally due to how strong North America was here -- or the Americas was here and specifically North America in the fourth quarter. We did not anticipate that we would exceed last year's record fourth quarter, and we did that.

我總是有點驚訝。與我們先前給出的指引相比，我們第四季的出色表現讓我有點驚訝，這主要是因為北美的表現非常強勁——或者說美洲的表現，特別是第四季度的北美。我們沒有預料到我們會超越去年第四季的紀錄，但我們做到了。

Looking ahead, as we said, we think demand for the company having outperformed the industry over the last several years, each of the last several years, we think we're largely in line, as we've stated before, with market performance. So if you will, if the market give yourself a range of minus 1% to plus 2%, depending on how promotions go and how strong or weak the consumer is or how strong or weak the consumer perceives he is, the market could be anywhere in that range, minus 1% to plus 2% in our view. Others may have a different view, but that would be our view.

展望未來，正如我們所說，我們認為該公司的需求在過去幾年中一直優於行業，我們認為，正如我們之前所說的，我們在過去幾年中的每一年都與市場表現基本一致。因此，如果市場給出一個-1%到+2%的範圍，這取決於促銷的進展情況、消費者的強弱或消費者認為自己的強弱，那麼市場可能處於這個範圍內的任何位置，我們認為是-1%到+2%。其他人可能有不同的看法，但這就是我們的看法。

We have modeled -- so you know we have modeled North American volume to be flat in the numbers that Kevin has provided you. So we're not stepping out on a ledge assuming the consumer is going to be exceptionally strong.

我們已經建模—所以您知道，我們已經建模出北美的銷售量與 Kevin 提供給您的數字持平。因此，我們不會冒險假設消費者將會異常強勁。

Now we'll talk about tariffs, and I'll ask you to allow somebody else to ask that question since you asked yours already. We'll talk about tariffs and the potential impact that tariffs may have on demand. The other puts and takes, obviously, there will be a little PPI give back to the customers when those contracts cycle. The majority of those are April, some in July, a few in January. And as you can tell by our margins, certainly, our margins are very strong and contracts are set very well, but there does come a time when the customers deserve to get some of the money back when costs come down.

現在我們來談談關稅，既然你已經問過了，我請求你允許其他人來問這個問題。我們將討論關稅以及關稅可能對需求產生的影響。至於其他的投入和產出，顯然，當這些合約循環時，會有少量的 PPI 回饋給客戶。其中大部分是在四月，有些在七月，少數在一月。從我們的利潤率就可以看出，我們的利潤率確實很高，合約也制定得很好，但總有一天，當成本下降時，客戶應該能收回部分資金。

And while PPI is not a perfect proxy for our cost, and we've talked about this before, labor never comes down. You can reduce labor content, but labor rate never comes down, and certainly, the coatings guys have found a sweet spot in how they can drive value. And we've not seen a lot of giveback from the coating suppliers to us over the last several years. So while not a perfect proxy, it is the methodology used within the contracts, and we adhere to contract. So that will be just a couple of the puts and takes.

儘管 PPI 並不能完美地衡量我們的成本，而且我們之前也討論過這個問題，但勞動成本從未下降過。你可以減少勞動量，但勞動率永遠不會下降，當然，塗料專家已經找到如何提高價值的最佳點。過去幾年來，我們並沒有看到塗料供應商給我們太多的回報。因此，雖然它不是一個完美的代理，但它是合約中使用的方法，我們遵守合約。這只是其中的一些情況。

I don't know if I've answered your question. I think I did.

我不知道我是否回答了你的問題。我認為我已經這麼做了。

Yes, that's great. And then, Tim, just from a cash flow standpoint, cash flow was strong. Your balance sheet is pretty close to your leverage target. So my question is what are you going to do with all that cash? Is it buybacks? Do you see any opportunities on bolt-ons? Just kind of help us think through how you're going to deploy that capital and unlock value for shareholders.

是的，太棒了。然後，提姆，僅從現金流的角度來看，現金流是強勁的。您的資產負債表非常接近您的槓桿目標。所以我的問題是你要用這些現金做什麼？是回購嗎？您是否看到任何關於附加裝置的機會？只是幫助我們思考如何部署這些資本並為股東釋放價值。

Well, I think, Phil, let's start with $800 million, and I'll make it as clear as I can. $800 million, back off a couple of hundred million for dividends to minority partners and dividends to the public shareholders, that leaves you with about $550 million to $600 million. And as we sit here today, the modeling that Kevin has done, we're assuming 50/50 debt reduction and share repurchase. And that can change depending on where the markets take us here in 2025, and depending on how you all in the buy side determine you want to value us.

好吧，菲爾，我想，讓我們從 8 億美元開始，我會盡可能說清楚。 8 億美元，再減去幾億美元用於支付少數合夥人的股息和公眾股東的股息，剩下大約 5.5 億到 6 億美元。今天，根據凱文所做的模型，我們假設債務減少和股票回購的比例為 50/50。這可能會根據 2025 年市場的發展而改變，也取決於買方如何評估我們。

We continue to believe that we are significantly undervalued given a pristine balance sheet and high cash flow generation and a low share float. But we'll see how we're valued, and we'll make a decision as to whether we adjust that 50/50.

我們仍然認為，鑑於良好的資產負債表、較高的現金流量產生率和較低的流通股數，我們的估值被嚴重低估。但我們會看看我們的估值如何，然後決定是否要調整 50/50 的比例。

And Tim, will you front-load that buyback? Or it's going to be pretty spread out for the year, just given where stock price is at?

提姆，你會預先支付回購費用嗎？或者說，考慮到股票價格的現狀，全年來看，其分佈會相當分散？

Phil, look, I think the share price is at a good price now, Phil. I would expect through the first half of the year for us to do something close to the 50/50 that Tim was talking about.

菲爾，你看，我認為現在的股價很不錯，菲爾。我希望我們在今年上半年能夠實現蒂姆所說的 50/50 的目標。

Christopher Parkinson, Wolfe Research.

克里斯多福·帕金森（Christopher Parkinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

It's Andrew, actually, on for Chris. Real quick, I want to kind of understand the sustainability of momentum in Europe. Obviously, you've had a couple of really strong quarters. How are you thinking about that going into '25, and sort of what are the puts and takes in the region?

實際上是安德魯 (Andrew) 代替克里斯 (Chris)。我想快速了解歐洲的發展動能是否可持續。顯然，你們已經經歷了幾個非常強勁的季度。您如何看待 25 年這一情況，以及該地區的利弊？

Well, I think it has real traction in Europe. There are, I'm going to use a term, any number, which is kind of a meaningless term, but there are any number of various packaging directives being floated about by individual countries, by the European Union, et cetera, that either directly or indirectly affect the aluminum beverage can. We believe the aluminum beverage can continues to be the best position drinks package to accomplish everything that the -- let's just call them the greens, that the greens want to accomplish.

嗯，我認為它在歐洲確實很受歡迎。我要使用一個術語，任何數字，這是一個毫無意義的術語，但各國、歐盟等都推出了各種包裝指令，這些指令直接或間接地影響鋁製飲料罐。我們相信，鋁製飲料罐仍然是實現綠色目標的最佳飲料包裝——我們就稱之為綠色目標吧。

I think that for the most part, we can always do better, but recycling rates are certainly much higher in Europe. So we feel very good about that. We need to get recycling rates higher in the United States, but we feel very good about the rates in Europe. And we would continue to expect to see conversion from glass and other substrates to the can. But I think, if you look at glass performance in Europe versus can performance in Europe, you can see what's happening. And I don't expect that to slow down.

我認為在大多數情況下我們總是可以做得更好，但歐洲的回收率肯定要高得多。因此我們對此感到非常高興。我們需要提高美國的回收率，但我們對歐洲的回收率感到非常滿意。我們將繼續期待看到從玻璃和其他基材到罐頭的轉變。但我認為，如果你看看歐洲的玻璃表現和歐洲的罐頭表現，你會看到正在發生的事情。我並不認為這股趨勢會減緩。

Got it. And any commentary on Asia on a go-forward basis in terms of volumes, especially?

知道了。您對亞洲未來銷售有何評論？

Yes. So I think we're up significantly this year, but that's really just clawing back what we gave away in the last couple of years, and that was rightsizing the cost base production capacity into what we believe is a new volume framework until the consumer regains some strength.

是的。因此，我認為我們今年的產量大幅成長，但這實際上只是收回過去幾年我們放棄的產量，即將成本基礎生產能力調整為我們認為的新產量框架，直到消費者恢復一些實力。

So the consumer is still a little weak in Asia, in principally all of the Asian countries. We continue to do well in Cambodia. Vietnam is a little softer than we would like. We've modeled the decline in our volumes in China, but an increase in Southeast Asia.

所以亞洲的消費能力還是有些弱，主要是所有亞洲國家。我們在柬埔寨繼續表現良好。越南比我們所希望的要軟一些。我們的模型顯示，中國市場的銷售量有所下降，但東南亞市場的銷售量卻增加。

We've got some other contractual things we're working through, but we think the business is marginally up. Maybe it's income-wise, it's up 2% to 3%, 4% next year compared to this year. So we'll certainly hold on to the gains we've made and cost base is really in a good place for when volume returns for it to flow through to the bottom line.

我們還有一些其他合約事宜正在處理，但我們認為業務略有成長。也許從收入角度來看，明年的收入將比今年增加 2% 到 3%，甚至 4%。因此，我們肯定會保持已經取得的收益，而且成本基礎確實處於一個良好的位置，以便銷售回升時能夠流到底線。

Ghansham Panjabi, RW Baird.

甘沙姆·潘賈比、RW·貝爾德。

Going back to your comments on North American volumes, I think you said the industry estimated plus 1% last year and then you're assuming flat for this year. So if we kind of go back to the 1998 through 2018 sort of paradigm where volumes for the industry are flattish for an extended period of time, what is the --

回到您對北美銷量的評論，我認為您說去年業界預計增長 1%，而您假設今年將持平。因此，如果我們回到 1998 年至 2018 年的範式，即該行業的銷量長期持平，那麼--

Flattish is generous, Gansham, right? I think you could argue they were down over that period, right?

弗拉蒂什很慷慨，甘沙姆，對吧？我想您可以說它們在那段時期內處於下滑狀態，對嗎？

I rounded up, yes. What does that do to your margin profile for that segment in context of being at record margins in 2024?

我四捨五入，是的。在 2024 年利潤率創紀錄的背景下，這會對該部門的利潤狀況產生什麼影響？

Well, it doesn't have to do anything. It really depends on the behavior of the participants. We've talked previously about the value proposition that we offer to our customers, all of us in the aluminum beverage can world offer to our customers. It is a package that cost a lot of capital to install, to run. The incredible amounts of talent and discipline in the factories, we all possess it, we all deliver that quality and service to our customers. We deserve to get paid for it.

嗯，它不需要做任何事。這確實取決於參與者的行為。我們之前談過我們向客戶提供的價值主張，我們所有鋁飲料罐行業從業者都向客戶提供這樣的價值主張。它是一個需要花費大量資金來安裝和運行的軟體包。工廠裡有大量的人才和紀律，我們都擁有這些，我們都提供客戶優質的產品和服務。我們應該得到報酬。

Now post post the COVID boom, we had a number of independent one-liner guys think that they could just step in and make cans. And I don't want to say they failed miserably, but they didn't do too well. And so three of them are gone now.

現在，在新冠疫情爆發後，我們有很多獨立的單行傢伙認為他們可以介入並製造罐頭。我不想說他們失敗得很慘，但他們做得確實不太好。現在他們三人已經走了。

I think the other participants that we still have remaining in the market, two of them are can companies in other parts of the world. They're going to succeed. So the competitive profile is certainly different in the marketplace than it would have been three or four years ago, and we all have to learn how to compete in that environment.

我認為我們市場上仍有其他參與者，其中兩家是世界其他地區的公司。他們將會成功。因此，現在的市場競爭狀況與三、四年前相比肯定有所不同，我們都必須學會如何在這樣的環境中競爭。

But it's incumbent upon us to hold price, to do better in manufacturing so that we can keep more of the manufacturing improvements that we make for our shareholders. We can't just be in business to return all the value from our hard work to somebody else's shareholder group. So nothing solves your problems like volume growth, right?

但我們有責任保持價格，在製造方面做得更好，這樣我們才能為股東保留更多的製造改進。我們做生意不能只是為了把我們辛勤勞動所得的全部價值回饋給別人的股東群體。那麼沒有什麼能像增加銷售量那樣解決你的問題，對嗎？

On the other hand, most of us did fairly well for a large period of time. So if you took 1998 to 2018, we all did fairly well in terms of cash generation. Margins did grind down, but we generated cash, we didn't spend a lot of capital and we returned that value to shareholders. We have to find the sweet spot in all of that as an industry, and no one company can do it themselves, Ghansham.

另一方面，我們大多數人在很長一段時間內都表現得相當好。因此，如果從 1998 年到 2018 年，我們的現金創造能力都相當不錯。利潤率確實下降了，但我們產生了現金，我們沒有花費太多資本，並將價值回饋給了股東。作為一個行業，我們必須在所有這些方面找到最佳平衡點，沒有一家公司能夠獨自做到這一點，Ghansham。

Got it. And then if you switch to transit, just given the elongated downturn, two-year manufacturing recession globally, et cetera, I know you're taking costs out of the system, but what else are you looking at in terms of the some of the pocket variances to kind of get you through this period before volumes hopefully inflect higher at some point?

知道了。然後，如果您轉向運輸，考慮到長期的經濟低迷，全球兩年的製造業衰退等等，我知道您正在從系統中削減成本，但您還在考慮哪些口袋差異方面的其他因素，以幫助您度過這段時期，然後在某個時候運輸量有望回升？

Yes. So I mean, there are things we do in that business that you don't see or we don't report. We have consolidated some facilities. We don't necessarily call them out because the cost is relatively inexpensive. That is, if it's $5 million, it's a lot. Sometimes it's below $5 million. So we are doing that. I hesitate to do a whole lot more. We took a lot of cost out. And at some point, industrially, we're going to have a bounce back. I don't know when that is, and I've gotten it wrong in the past. So I don't really want to call it again.

是的。所以我的意思是，我們在這個行業中所做的事情是你看不到的或我們沒有報告的。我們整合了一些設施。我們不一定會叫他們出來，因為成本相對便宜。也就是說，如果是 500 萬美元，那這可是一大筆錢。有時低於500萬美元。所以我們正這麼做。我猶豫著是否要做更多的事。我們節省了很多成本。到了某個時候，從工業上來說，我們將會實現反彈。我不知道那是什麼時候，過去我也曾經弄錯。所以我真的不想再打這通電話了。

I do think the first six months of this year are going to be more of the same, and we're hopeful that we get some uptick in the back half of the year. We are starting to see some green shoots in the protective space. What we really need to see is capital equipment orders tick up, and we haven't seen that yet. But I think the cost base is in pretty good shape. The amount of volume we and others have lost in that space, and I guess if you looked at other industrial companies you cover, depending on what industrial applications they're in, they may have similar experience as well.

我確實認為今年上半年的情況將大致相同，我們希望下半年能有所改善。我們開始看到防護空間內的一些綠芽。我們真正需要看到的是資本設備訂單增加，但我們還沒有看到這一點。但我認為成本基礎狀況相當良好。我們和其他公司在該領域的損失量，我想如果你看看你所涵蓋的其他工業公司，根據他們所從事的工業應用，他們可能也有類似的經驗。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Tim, you might need to take some honey or something, good luck fighting whatever you got there.

提姆，你可能需要吃點蜂蜜或別的東西，祝你好運，無論你得到什麼。

Yes. I don't know what I did here, George, but I haven't been able to get rid of it.

是的。喬治，我不知道我在這裡做了什麼，但我無法擺脫它。

You're in Florida for crying out loud. But anyway, good luck as well this weekend. Listen, if you could talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in Europe in terms of the volume outlook. It sounds positive. At the end of the day, we're not going to hold you to anything specific, but do you have the opportunity given your answer, I think, to Ghansham or somebody else's question in terms of the green trends there to see mid-single digit or better growth? You had teed up the question on tariffs, so I will take that one kindly as well in terms of what you see as the puts and takes there.

天哪，你居然在佛羅裡達。但無論如何，祝這個週末好運。聽著，如果您可以再多談談您對歐洲銷量前景的看法的話。聽起來很正面。歸根結底，我們不會要求您做任何具體的事情，但我認為，根據您對 Ghansham 或其他人關於綠色趨勢的問題的回答，您是否有機會看到中等個位數或更好的增長？您已提出有關關稅的問題，因此，我將根據您所見，就其中的利弊，友好地回答您的問題。

And then lastly, I think the answer is no, but I'll ask the question anyway. Do you see, given the balance sheet positioning, given where you're at, given the cash flow, to do anything beyond what you have been doing in terms of normal capital allocation for productivity, for growth? Do you have another couple of years left to grow into your capacity across your major regions?

最後，我認為答案是否定的，但我還是會問這個問題。考慮到資產負債表的定位、目前的情況和現金流，您是否認為除了正常的資本配置以外，還需要採取什麼措施來提高生產力和實現成長？你們是否還有幾年的時間來提升你們在主要地區的業務能力？

Okay. So mid-single-digit growth in Europe, yes. Can we grow into the capacity we have installed over the next couple of years without significant capital being spent? For the most part, yes. We've got a line we're going to install in Thailand in the near term. It's a joint venture with a very large global energy company and they want us to expand the footprint there, but that's within the envelope that Kevin has described.

好的。是的，歐洲的成長率是中等個位數。我們是否可以在不投入大量資金的情況下在未來幾年內發展到已安裝的產能？大部分情況下是的。我們將在近期在泰國安裝一條生產線。這是與一家大型全球能源公司的合資企業，他們希望我們擴大在那裡的業務，但這在凱文所描述的範圍內。

I think the envelope, we've described $450 million, George. If you want to think about $400 million to $500 million, that envelope beyond $250 million to $300 million of maintenance will cover any necessary growth, but I don't really see the need right now to spend a lot of money in any of the major beverage regions. I think we're pretty well set.

喬治，我認為信封上寫的是 4.5 億美元。如果你想考慮 4 億到 5 億美元，那麼超過 2.5 億到 3 億美元維護費用的那部分資金將可以覆蓋任何必要的增長，但我現在並不認為有必要在任何主要飲料地區投入大量資金。我認為我們已經準備好了。

And I guess your last question was tariffs. Is that correct?

我想你的最後一個問題就是關稅。那正確嗎？

That is correct.

正確。

So I think the biggest impact from tariffs is likely to be the impact that the consumer is going to feel if there is an inflationary impact from tariffs. So indirect to us. I'm going to say almost all of the aluminum, it is all, I think, but almost all of the aluminum we buy in the US is domestically sourced. Our aluminum that we buy in other regions in North America does not come from the US. So we're not seeing any of that. There will be other direct materials that do come from the US to Canada and Mexico, coatings and the like, and we'll have to work through that.

因此，我認為關稅的最大影響可能是消費者在關稅引發通膨時將感受到的影響。對我們來說太間接了。我要說的是，我想幾乎所有的鋁都是如此，但我們在美國購買的幾乎所有鋁都是國內採購的。我們在北美其他地區購買的鋁不是來自美國。所以我們沒有看到任何這些。還會有其他直接材料從美國運往加拿大和墨西哥，如塗料等，我們必須解決這些問題。

And on a sales point of view, what we make in Mexico stays in Mexico. Almost 99%, 98% stays in Mexico. So we don't expect our Mexican customers to feel the pinch of having to export their product from Mexico into the US. I think everything we make in Canada in beverage stays in Canada. Maybe there's some exported Canadian beer back to the US, but that's always what it's been, and they generally sell for premiums anyway.

從銷售角度來看，我們在墨西哥生產的產品仍留在墨西哥。幾乎99%、98%的人留在了墨西哥。因此，我們不希望我們的墨西哥客戶感受到將產品從墨西哥出口到美國的壓力。我認為我們在加拿大生產的所有飲料都留在加拿大。也許有些加拿大啤酒出口回美國，但情況一直都是這樣的，而且它們一般都以高價出售。

There are food cans and aerosol cans that move across the border from the US into Canada. And to my knowledge, there is not a sizable food can or aerosol can manufacture in Canada. So I would expect that we're going to have to pass those costs on. So I think -- largely, George, I think it's a -- from where we sit on tariffs, it feels like it's an indirect exposure that we have if the consumer feels the pinch from inflation further and dials back their purchasing habits.

有一些食品罐頭和氣霧罐從美國跨越邊境運往加拿大。據我所知，加拿大還沒有大規模的食品罐或氣霧罐製造業。所以我預計我們必須轉嫁這些成本。因此我認為——喬治，在很大程度上，我認為——從我們對關稅的看法來看，如果消費者進一步感受到通貨膨脹的壓力並減少購買習慣，這感覺就像是我們面臨的間接風險。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲。

Maybe just back on the tariff topic, and maybe another way to ask this is, we saw significant aluminum and midwest premium inflation at the beginning of 2022. How did your customers react during that time period? And let's say that tariffs lead to premium inflation again, do you think there'd be any reason they would react differently this time?

也許回到關稅話題上，也許另一個問法是，我們在 2022 年初看到鋁和中西部溢價通膨顯著。您的客戶在那段時間內有何反應？假設關稅再次導致保費上漲，您認為他們這次會做出不同的反應嗎？

Well, the customers, in 2022, reacted by pushing the price of a 12-pack of soda from $3 to $9, where they got themselves to $9 along the way. And that had some demand implications, but by and large, they recovered or over-recovered their costs. They made a lot of money on their top line.

好吧，2022 年，顧客們的反應是將一包 12 瓶裝蘇打水的價格從 3 美元提高到 9 美元，而價格也一路漲到了 9 美元。這對需求產生了一些影響，但總體而言，他們收回了或超額收回了成本。他們透過自己的產品賺了很多錢。

And consumers, more or less, found their way to continue to buy beverage cans. How high can you push a 12-pack of soda? I don't know, but the Midwest premium, well, there are customers who buy their own metal, so for them it's on their account. And then for those customers where we procure the metal, it's passed through. But I would expect we're going to see significant Midwest premium increases, yes.

而消費者或多或少也找到了繼續購買罐裝飲料的方法。您能將一罐 12 瓶裝的蘇打水推多高？我不知道，但是對於中西部地區的溢價，嗯，有些客戶會自己購買金屬，所以對他們來說，這是他們自己的帳戶。然後，對於那些我們採購金屬的客戶來說，它就被傳遞了。但我預計我們將會看到中西部地區的保費大幅上漲，是的。

Okay. Great. Yes, that's helpful. And then maybe we could just spend some time in your other businesses in Americas, Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. What are you seeing as far as the consumer there? What's driving the strength in those regions? And maybe you could expand a little bit on your expectations for 2025?

好的。偉大的。是的，這很有幫助。然後我們也許可以花一些時間了解您在美洲、巴西、墨西哥和哥倫比亞的其他業務。您對那裡的消費者有何看法？是什麼推動了這些地區的發展？能否稍微詳細說明一下您對 2025 年的期望？

Yes. So listen, you've always heard us say, and I always feel like I'm repeating myself, it's only the can business. We're not making airplane engines for jets, so it's not as complicated as we want to make it. But Brazil is a market. I've said it before, you can have ups and downs and hiccups along the way, but if you look at it over a three- to five-year period and you draw a graph, it's always growing. The trend line is up.

是的。所以聽著，你總是聽我們說，而我總覺得我在重複自己，這只是罐頭生意。我們不是為噴射機製造發動機，所以它並不像我們想像的那麼複雜。但巴西是一個市場。我之前說過，一路走來，你可能會有起有落，有坎坷，但如果你以三到五年的時間回顧並畫出圖表，你會發現它總是在增長。趨勢線向上。

And so we had a down year in Brazil late '22, early '23, and we bounced back nicely. I think they are -- the Brazilian economy is sorting its way through inflation and unemployment. They always have -- their statistics are certainly shockingly high compared to ours. But in their environment, it's always been high. So they're used to that.

因此，2022 年末和 2023 年初，我們在巴西經歷了低迷，但我們很快就恢復了正常。我認為是的——巴西經濟正在努力解決通貨膨脹和失業問題。他們一直都是如此——與我們的相比，他們的統計數據確實高得令人震驚。但在他們的環境中，這個數字一直很高。所以他們已經習慣了。

And again, the fourth quarter, first quarter are the big seasons for them. So we continue to expect Brazil is going to do well over the medium to long term. There could be hiccups along the way, but as we've said, we don't get too excited. It's an investment we've made, and we believe in the market.

再說一次，第四季、第一季是他們最重要的季度。因此，我們仍然預期巴西在中長期內將會表現良好。一路上可能會出現一些小問題，但正如我們所說的，我們不會太興奮。這是我們所做的投資，我們相信市場。

Colombia, we have a very -- it's a one-line plant, but it's a large line. It's a high-speed line. We do have a partner there who takes a significant amount of cans, and we had another global customer that also takes a significant amount of cans, and we run that plant well from a manufacturing standpoint. The plant was built in '96, and I've said it before, I don't know where the sweet spot is from a manufacturing standpoint for a facility and the workforce, but we are feeling a really good sweet spot right now in Colombia. The performance that the team there has generated has been nothing short of excellent over the last 12 months. So again, a one-line plant, but sold out and doing very well.

哥倫比亞，我們有一個非常——它是一條單線工廠，但它是一條大型生產線。這是一條高速線路。我們在那裡確實有一個合作夥伴，他需要大量的罐頭，我們還有另一個全球客戶，他也需要大量的罐頭，從製造的角度來看，我們把那個工廠經營得很好。工廠建於 1996 年，我之前說過，我不知道從製造的角度來看，設施和勞動力的最佳點在哪裡，但我們現在在哥倫比亞感覺了一個非常好的最佳點。在過去 12 個月裡，該團隊的表現可謂十分出色。再次強調，這是一家單線工廠，但已銷售一空，而且業績非常好。

Mexico. This is principally the business we acquired 10 years ago. We make all the beverage products, if you will. We make beverage cans. We make beverage bottles only. No bottles for any other product other than beverages, principally beer and soda. We make bottle caps and we make aluminum roll-on closures for the aluminum bottle. So again, largely sold out, doing well.

墨西哥。這主要是我們十年前收購的業務。如果您願意，我們可以生產所有飲料產品。我們生產飲料罐。我們只生產飲料瓶。除飲料（主要是啤酒和蘇打水）外，禁止使用任何其他產品的瓶子。我們生產瓶蓋，並為鋁瓶生產鋁製滾珠封蓋。因此，再次，基本上已經售罄，表現良好。

We might have a little mismatch this year whereby we gained a customer last year. We lose a little bit from one customer this year. So it's a little mismatch. But by and large, again, a really solid business. I think as Kevin likes to remind me, it's more than $1 billion business in Mexico. So it is a large business. We don't talk about it. We jump right from the US down to Brazil, but in between for Crown, there's a business in excess of $1 billion, and we call that Mexico.

我們今年可能會出現一點不匹配的情況，因為去年我們獲得了一個客戶。我們今年失去了一位客戶。因此有點不匹配。但總體來說，這仍是一家非常穩健的企業。我認為，正如凱文喜歡提醒我的那樣，墨西哥的生意額超過 10 億美元。所以這是一門大生意。我們不談論它。我們從美國直接跳到巴西，但對於 Crown 來說，在美國和巴西之間有一個價值超過 10 億美元的業務，我們稱之為墨西哥。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

Congrats on the strong results here. So I guess, first off, just curious on your take on pricing and returns. We've been hearing that there's a little bit of overcapacity in certain parts of North America, especially maybe the Midwest, and there's been some changes in ownership in some plants. So just wanted to get your take on how pricing maybe could transpire over the next year or so.

恭喜您取得的優異成績。所以我想，首先，我只是好奇您對定價和回報的看法。我們聽說北美某些地區，特別是中西部地區，出現了產能過剩的情況，而且一些工廠的所有權發生了變化。所以只是想聽聽您對未來一年左右定價可能如何變化的看法。

Yes. Listen, when you think about regionally where the overcapacity might exist in the US, we -- especially the large suppliers we all operate from a North American platform, and I don't think -- listen, I don't know, but it be surprising to me if anybody has a regional pricing in North America. Now if there's overcapacity and there's a new entrant there that's causing a problem, okay, they're causing a problem.

是的。聽著，當你考慮到美國可能存在產能過剩的區域時，我們——特別是大型供應商，我們都在北美平台上運營，我不認為——聽著，我不知道，但如果有人在北美有區域定價，我會感到驚訝。現在，如果出現產能過剩的情況，並且有新進入者出現並造成問題，那麼，他們確實會造成問題。

And when you're talking about a business -- a market that's 120 billion cans, and if you're going to get excited about 600 million cans in Indiana or wherever in the Midwest you're talking about, and you're going to allow that to dictate your pricing architecture for the rest of the 120 billion cans in your marketplace, then you need to change a whole bunch of people in the industry before you're going to have a successful industry.

當您談論一個企業——一個擁有 1200 億罐飲料的市場——並且如果您對印第安納州或中西部任何地方的 6 億罐飲料感到興奮，並且您要讓它決定您市場上剩餘 1200 億罐飲料的定價架構，那麼您需要在行業中改變一大批人，然後才能擁有一個成功的行業。

I think we have a successful industry. And I think it's very healthy that the one liners have kind of fleshed themselves out. I don't wish ill on anybody, but I hope the lessons -- there are failure lessons. People have a long memory before they try to enter a market like the can-making market, again, with a lot of capital not understanding the requirements, not only from an engineering standpoint, but from a daily workforce standpoint what it takes to make cans.

我認為我們的行業很成功。我認為，俏皮話的不斷充實是非常健康的。我不希望任何人遭遇不幸，但我希望從中學到教訓——失敗的教訓。人們在試圖進入像罐頭製造市場這樣的市場之前，會記憶猶新，同樣，許多資本不僅從工程的角度不了解要求，而且從日常勞動力的角度也不了解製造罐頭所需的條件。

And the multinationals that are here, we do that really well. You're always really surprised when you hear people think that they can -- your people say they can do something as well as somebody else having never done it before. So I don't feel good about the fact that some of these guys are going bankrupt, but I hope that lesson is long for anybody else considering it.

對於位於這裡的跨國公司來說，我們在這方面做得非常好。當你聽到人們認為他們可以做到時，你總是感到非常驚訝——你的人說他們可以做某事，就像其他人從未做過的那樣。因此，對於其中一些人破產的事實，我感到不太高興，但我希望這個教訓對其他任何考慮這個問題的人來說都是長久的。

Okay. Appreciate that. And then I also just want to ask about your thoughts on Asia Pacific. We've had some challenges for the consumer there as well, but -- and then changes in different laws and regulations that affected your business a little while ago. So do you feel like you kind of stabilized in that region? And maybe what's your outlook for how we should grow there?

好的。非常感謝。然後我也想問您對亞太地區的看法。我們也遇到了一些針對消費者的挑戰，但是—不久前不同的法律法規的變化對您的業務產生了影響。那麼，您是否覺得您在該地區已經穩定下來了？您對我們應該如何在那裡發展有什麼看法？

Yes. Listen, I think we're stabilized. You're always back to -- a market like Asia Pacific, specifically Southeast Asia, it's been a growth market for us for so long. But at some point, you transition from your focus being on growth to your focus being on income growth.

是的。聽著，我想我們已經穩定了。你總是回到——像亞太地區這樣的市場，特別是東南亞，它長期以來一直是我們的成長市場。但在某個時候，你的焦點會從成長轉變為收入成長。

And I think we've made that transition now. We are focused on generating good returns. I think we have high teens returns now in the market. A lot of cash flow. That is our capital needs in the region are not very high any longer, so there's a lot of cash flow. And I think that transition is well underway.

我認為我們現在已經完成了這一轉變。我們專注於創造良好的回報。我認為我們現在的市場報酬率很高。大量的現金流。也就是說，該地區的資本需求不再很高，因此有大量的現金流。我認為這一轉變正在順利進行中。

We are well positioned to accommodate growth if and when the consumer gets healthy. But for the time being, we're making really good returns, and we're generating a lot of cash. And I think we're probably still a year away before we see the consumer in Asia really feel healthy again.

如果消費者恢復健康，我們就能適應成長。但就目前而言，我們的回報確實不錯，而且產生了很多現金。我認為可能還需要一年的時間我們才能看到亞洲消費者真正恢復健康。

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities.

富國證券的 Gabe Hajde。

You mentioned adhering to contracts, which I think is a principal thing to do, Tim. So I was curious if there was anything unique about contracts that you all entered into? I know that you guys were trying to include different escalators for freight and aluminum premium along the way, and that's like a decade-long process. But were they shorter term in nature or anything like that, meaning contracts are struck from 2019 to 2023 time frame such that there's more to come up for renewal? I think last time, you said you kind of feel good through '27. But just if you're willing to put a number on a portion of your North American business that's contracted in '25 and '26?

您提到遵守合同，我認為這是一件主要的事情，蒂姆。所以我很好奇，你們簽訂的合約是否有什麼獨特之處？我知道你們一直在嘗試為貨運和鋁保價引入不同的升級措施，這是一個長達十年的過程。但它們的期限是否是短期的，或者類似的，這意味著合約是在 2019 年至 2023 年的時間範圍內簽訂的，因此還有更多的內容需要續約？我想上次你說過你對 27 年感覺很好。但是您是否願意對 25 年和 26 年北美業務的收縮部分給出一個數字呢？

Yes. So I will confirm what we've said before. We don't see any major contract renewals coming due until the end of '26, going into '27. We believe, as I said earlier, we're going to be largely in line with the market in '25. I didn't say it earlier, but I think as we sit here today, we believe we're going to be ahead of the market in '26, but we have plenty of time to reconfirm that as we go through the year. So that would suggest to you that, and we believe, we have business in '26 under contract that begins in '26, but we'll come back and address that in July and October.

是的。因此我將確認我們之前所說的話。我們預計在 26 年末至 27 年期間不會有任何重大合約續約。我們相信，正如我之前所說，到 25 年，我們將基本上與市場保持一致。我之前沒有這麼說，但我認為，當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們相信我們將在26年領先於市場，但隨著今年的到來，我們有足夠的時間來重新確認這一點。所以，這向您表明，我們相信，根據從26年開始的合同，我們在26年有業務，但我們會在7月和10月回來解決這個問題。

Understood. And you called out North America, Brazil for volumes on the fourth quarter and full year. Could you tell us what Mexico was? It sounds like it was good. You picked up some business, and then maybe in '25 in reversed back out, but just --

明白了。您還提到了北美和巴西第四季和全年的銷售。你能告訴我們墨西哥是什麼嗎？聽起來不錯。你接手了一些生意，然後可能在 25 年又倒閉了，但只是--

I think Mexico we were down a couple of percent in the fourth quarter. It looks like we're down 2.5% in the fourth quarter. It looks like the industry was down 3.5%. These are estimates and/or information we get from the can association in Mexico.

我認為墨西哥第四季的銷售額下降了幾個百分點。看起來我們第四季下降了 2.5%。看起來該行業下降了 3.5%。這些是我們從墨西哥罐頭協會獲得的估計和/或資訊。

Understood. One quick last one, hopefully, maybe, Kevin. It looked like D&A was $10 million below in the fourth quarter. And I think the number you gave us was $310 million for depreciation. Again, amort was running a bit light in the fourth quarter. By my math, that's about a $0.15 bump in '25 guide. And then if I build up from free cash flow, I'm getting to like [19, 60] number for EBITDA, any comments there?

明白了。最後一個問題，希望是，也許吧，凱文。看起來第四季的折舊和攤銷前利潤 (D&A) 低於 1000 萬美元。我認為您給我們的數字是 3.1 億美元的折舊費。再次，阿莫特在第四節表現有點疲軟。根據我的計算，這比 25 年指南上漲了約 0.15 美元。然後，如果我從自由現金流開始計算，我的 EBITDA 就會達到 [19, 60] 這個數字，有什麼評論嗎？

So Gabe, just in terms of depreciation, or amortization, we exclude the amortization from our guide. So I don't see that as the bump. Your EBITDA around 19, 60 is within the range of where we're at, so I would confirm that. Depreciation around $310 million. We're still spending more in terms of capital than depreciation, so you would expect depreciation to go up year on year as a result.

因此，Gabe，僅就折舊或攤銷而言，我們將攤銷排除在指南之外。所以我不認為那是什麼障礙。您的 EBITDA 約為 19,60，在我們現在的範圍內，所以我想確認這一點。折舊約3.1億美元。我們的資本支出仍然多於折舊支出，因此，你可以預期折舊費會逐年增加。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

It's Anojja Shah, sitting in for Josh. I wanted to ask a question on transit. I know you need to see sustainable improvement in industrial activity to see real improvement there. But in the past, you talked about the secular trend of companies wanting to automate the back end of their manufacturing process, the parts through warehousing and distribution. Have you seen any benefit from that, yet that may be being obscured right now? Or is that just not something that is benefiting you?

他是阿諾賈·沙阿 (Anojja Shah)，代替喬許 (Josh)。我想問一個關於交通的問題。我知道你需要看到工業活動的可持續改善才能看到真正的改善。但在過去，您談到了公司希望實現製造流程後端自動化（即透過倉儲和配送實現零件的自動化）的長期趨勢。您是否看到了其中的任何好處，但現在可能被掩蓋了？或者這對你來說根本沒有好處？

No, I would tell you that, yes, we've seen benefit. Not only third-party customers have utilized the back-end automation services of Cigna. We at Crown did with an automated warehouse in our new plant in the UK, really quite amazing. If you ever get a chance to go over there, we'd love to show it to you. I think in large part, that's being masked or offset by the -- I don't want to say dearth of equipment orders, but the very low level of equipment orders for standard strapping and wrapping equipment that we traditionally have seen in the past.

不，我會告訴你，是的，我們已經看到了好處。不僅第三方客戶利用了 Cigna 的後端自動化服務。我們 Crown 在英國的新工廠裡建立了自動化倉庫，這真的相當了不起。如果您有機會去那裡，我們很樂意帶您去那裡參觀。我認為，在很大程度上，這被掩蓋或抵消了——我不想說設備訂單的缺乏，而是我們過去傳統上看到的標準捆紮和包裝設備的設備訂單水平非常低。

Okay. And then for a few quarters now, you've been talking about manufacturing improvements and excellent manufacturing performance. Can you give a bit more detail on this? Are there things that are being done now that weren't being done before? Or is it more about strong volumes and operating leverage?

好的。在過去的幾個季度裡，您一直在談論製造業的改進和卓越的製造性能。能否詳細說明一下這一點？有哪些事情現在正在做而以前沒有做過？或更多與強勁的銷售和經營槓桿有關？

Well, you hit it with the last thing, right? Volume cures all your ills. I probably have said that before. And it happens in two ways: a lot more volume, you just generate more income naturally, more absorption. But when you're running more volume, the workforce is certainly more focused on trying to be as efficient as possible so they can run more volume.

嗯，你用最後一樣東西擊中了它，對嗎？數量可以治癒你的所有疾病。我可能以前就說過這句話。它以兩種方式發生：交易量大幅增加，你自然就會產生更多收入，吸收量也更多。但是，當你運行更多的產品時，員工肯定會更專注於盡可能提高效率，以便能夠運行更多的產品。

But largely, we're talking about efficiency and spoilage, asset utilization. More cans out the back end of the line with less labor hours, less line hours. And I'm always hesitant to do this, but we did change out the Vice President of Manufacturing in our North American beverage business over the last 18 months, and that has had a tremendous impact in performance in North America.

但整體來說，我們談論的是效率、損耗和資產利用率。生產線後端生產的罐子越多，勞動時間就越少，生產線時間也越短。我總是猶豫不決是否要這麼做，但在過去的 18 個月裡，我們確實更換了北美飲料業務的製造副總裁，這對北美的業績產生了巨大的影響。

Anthony Pettinari, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Tim, you talked about substrate substitution having a really good runway in Europe, which we've definitely seen from your results. Is it fair to say the vast majority of that is glass into cans rather than plastic?

提姆，你談到了基質替代在歐洲的良好發展，我們確實從你的結果中看到了這一點。是否可以說其中絕大部分是玻璃罐而不是塑膠罐？

And then I'm curious, when you look at US, Mexico, Brazil, how much runway does substrate substitution have, especially on the kind of glass to can side? Are we in the kind of later innings in the US? Or just how we should think about that?

然後我很好奇，當你看看美國、墨西哥、巴西時，基材替代有多少跑道，特別是在玻璃到罐側方面？我們是否正處於美國後期的局面？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

So I think you're right that the biggest substrate shift in Europe is glass to can. And principally, that can be around cost with some environmental as glass is heavier in brakes, obviously, than cans. I do think the proliferation of plastic has slowed in Europe, I think there's still a long way to go, conversion of plastic to can, United States, there's almost no glass left in soft drink, and cans have a 65% to 70% share in beer already. So I think in the US, the glass-to-can transition is, I don't want to say it's complete, but it's substantially complete.

所以我認為你說得對，歐洲最大的基材轉變是從玻璃到罐頭。原則上，這可能與成本以及環境有關，因為玻璃在煞車時顯然比罐子更重。我確實認為歐洲的塑膠擴散速度已經放緩，我認為還有很長的路要走，從塑膠到罐頭的轉化，美國，軟性飲料中幾乎沒有玻璃了，罐頭在啤酒中的份額已經達到 65％ 到 70％。因此我認為在美國，從玻璃到罐的轉變，我不想說它已經完成，但它基本上已經完成。

And if you think about PET, there's a huge runway for PET. I've never been a big believer, and I know a lot of investors and analysts don't like when I say it. I'm not a big believer in flat water converting from PET to cans. But I do believe there's runway for CSD to convert from PET to cans. But that's going to take a government and/or some other push for the marketers of those drinks to want to move away from PET to can.

如果你考慮一下 PET，你會發現 PET 有著巨大的發展空間。我從來都不是一個堅信的人，而且我知道很多投資人和分析師不喜歡我這麼說。我不太相信將 PET 瓶裝淡水換成罐裝會更好。但我相信碳酸飲料能夠從 PET 瓶裝轉換為罐裝瓶裝，這還有很長的路要走。但這需要政府和/或其他方面的推動，讓這些飲料的營銷商願意從 PET 包裝轉向罐裝包裝。

Brazil in beer, we're 65%, 70% cans now. Soft drinks are still 80% PET in that market. And in Mexico, levels are much lower. I think the can is probably, Tom, when you think about 25% for beer right now in Mexico. So there's a lot of room in Mexico from glass to can. And on soft drinks, there's also room both from glass and PET to come back to the can. But that market probably takes a little bit longer just because of disposable income.

目前，巴西的啤酒有 65% 到 70% 是罐裝啤酒。該市場上的軟性飲料仍有80%由PET製成。而在墨西哥，水平則低得多。湯姆，當你想到現在墨西哥的啤酒價格為 25% 時，我想這個罐子很可能就是啤酒。因此，墨西哥從玻璃到罐頭都有很大的發展空間。對於軟性飲料而言，玻璃和 PET 材料也有回歸罐裝的空間。但由於可支配收入的原因，該市場可能需要更長的時間才能發展起來。

Got it. Got it. That's extremely helpful. And then just switching gears. In your discussion on tariffs, I don't think you mentioned transit. Is there a meaningful impact there or any kind of, I don't know, percentage of goods that kind of cross borders or anything we should keep in mind?

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後就換檔了。在您討論關稅時，我認為您沒有提到運輸。這是否會產生重大影響，或者，我不知道跨境貨物的百分比，或者我們應該注意的任何事情？

Yes. I think the opportunity is that with more appropriate tariff levels on China, perhaps even higher than the President recently announced we protect the domestic transit business as well as the domestic food can and domestic aerosol can business. So there's an opportunity there. We'll see.

是的。我認為機會在於對中國徵收更合適的關稅水平，甚至可能高於總統最近宣布的水平，以保護國內運輸業務以及國內食品罐頭和國內氣霧罐業務。因此，這是一個機會。我們將會看到。

One thing that's not talked about a lot, and the Can Manufacturers Institute just wrote a letter to President Trump, and we're hopeful he undertakes it seriously, but the 232 tariffs implemented in 2018 had the negative knock-on effect of customers and others circumventing the 232 tariffs on tinplate and just importing filled goods from China. So when you buy your peaches or you buy your vegetables, you're getting Chinese corn. You're not getting corn growing in the United States by United States farmer under USDA regulations. You don't know what you're getting. So in a lot of ways that could be helpful. We'll see where it goes.

有一件事很少被談論，罐頭製造商協會剛剛致信川普總統，我們希望他能認真對待，但 2018 年實施的 232 項關稅產生了負面的連鎖反應，客戶和其他人繞過了對馬口鐵的 232 項關稅，直接從中國進口了填充商品。因此，當你購買桃子或蔬菜時，你買到的是中國玉米。你不會得到美國農民按照美國農業部法規在美國種植的玉米。你不知道你得到了什麼。因此從很多方面來說這都是有幫助的。我們將拭目以待。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho.

瑞穗的埃德萊恩·羅德里格斯 (Edlain Rodriguez)。

Tim, in terms of your volume, I would look for North America. I think you said that you expect to just track the market going forward. But are there any circumstances where you might outgrow the market? I mean, can anything be happening that would allow you to outgrow the market there?

提姆，就你的數量而言，我會尋找北美。我覺得您說過您希望追蹤未來的市場走勢。但是否存在你的業務規模可能超過市場規模的情況呢？我的意思是，是否有什麼事情可以讓你超越那裡的市場？

Well, I don't -- the answer is yes. Let's say that the end markets that are within our portfolio that we serve -- for example, we have a very strong position in carbonated water -- if that outperforms CSD, then yes, we'll do a little better than the market. We do have a growing energy presence. So if the labels that we supply in energy and/or the labels we supply in the other alcoholic other than beer perform better than beer, then we have the opportunity potentially to outperform the market. But as we said, the guidance we're giving you is predicated on us performing in line with the market.

嗯，我不知道——答案是肯定的。假設我們所服務的投資組合內的終端市場——例如，我們在碳酸水中佔據非常強勢的地位——如果它的表現優於碳酸水，那麼是的，我們的表現將比市場好一點。我們的能源影響力確實在不斷增強。因此，如果我們提供的能量飲料標籤和/或除啤酒以外的其他酒類標籤的表現優於啤酒，那麼我們就有機會超越市場。但正如我們所說，我們給您的指導是以我們與市場保持一致的表現為前提的。

That's great. And in terms of your business in Asia, I mean, from everything you've seen down there, when do you expect to see volume returning to your business there?

那太棒了。就您在亞洲的業務而言，從您在那裡看到的一切來看，您預計什麼時候那裡的業務量會恢復？

Well, as we sit here today, we're thinking that we're going to see positive volumes in Southeast Asia in 2025 offset by some volume downturn in China as we walk away from unprofitable business. I think longer term, though, I think I said earlier, we still believe the consumer is about 12 months out before they get comfortable to really return to consumer buying habits that we saw pre-pandemic.

好吧，今天我們坐在這裡，我們在想，到 2025 年，隨著我們逐漸擺脫無利可圖的業務，東南亞的銷量將會出現正增長，但中國銷量將出現一定程度的下滑。不過，我認為從長遠來看，我想我之前就說過了，我們仍然相信消費者需要大約 12 個月的時間才能真正恢復到疫情前的消費者購買習慣。

Mike Roxland, Truist Security.

Truist Security 的 Mike Roxland。

Congrats on a strong quarter and finish to the year. Just one quick question for me. You mentioned North American food can is doing better. What's driving that? Because it had a little bit of problem that for a few quarters. So what's driving that improvement in performance? And should we expect those trends to persist?

恭喜您本季取得了強勁成績並順利結束今年。我只想問一個簡單的問題。您提到北美食品罐頭的表現較好。是什麼原因導致的呢？因為它在過去幾個季度出現了一些小問題。那麼，推動性能提升的因素有哪些呢？我們是否應該預期這些趨勢將會持續下去？

Yes. So just so we're clear, within that nonreportable, we have food cans, aerosol cans and vacuum closures in the United States as well as the beverage can equipment business, which is based out of the UK. Food cans has been relatively stable to up for the last six to eight quarters. Even if volume has been a little sideways, the performance in food cans has been good. We've seen a market downturn in beverage can equipment orders as the beverage can growth story has subsided a bit here globally, and we're shipping less equipment as the other equipment supplier.

是的。因此，我們要明確的是，在非報告業務中，我們在美國擁有食品罐、氣霧罐和真空封蓋業務，以及位於英國的飲料罐設備業務。過去六到八個季度，食品罐頭銷售相對穩定，呈現上漲趨勢。即使銷售量略有波動，食品罐頭的表現仍然良好。我們看到飲料罐設備訂單市場出現下滑，因為全球飲料罐成長動能略有減弱，而且與其他設備供應商相比，我們的設備出貨量也減少了。

And aerosol cans have been a bit subdued, although that has bottomed and it looks to be it's going to be a better year next year, but two things. I think volume in the fourth quarter last year was pretty soft and volume returned this year. We have a very well-balanced portfolio. We have a significant pet food presence as well as a leading vegetable presence. So those customers just doing quite well in the fourth quarter.

氣霧罐的銷售量一直有些低迷，儘管已經觸底，而且看起來明年的銷量會更好，但有兩件事。我認為去年第四季的銷量相當疲軟，今年的銷量有所回升。我們的投資組合非常均衡。我們的寵物食品業務量龐大，蔬菜業務也處於領先地位。因此這些客戶在第四季的表現相當不錯。

We'll take one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

A couple sort of modeling questions quick and a bigger picture question, Tim, to the extent you have a view on it. So first of all, I mean, we can do the calculation for ourselves, Kevin, but FX, what do you expect that will be in terms of your forecast for the year from an earnings per share standpoint given where we sit right now? Pension, is there any benefit from the work that you did last year in terms of the earnings outlook for this year?

提姆，就您對此的看法而言，有幾個快速的建模問題和一個更大的問題。首先，我的意思是，凱文，我們可以自己計算一下，但 FX，考慮到我們目前的情況，從每股盈餘的角度來看，您對今年的預測是什麼？退休金，您去年所做的工作對今年的收入前景有什麼幫助嗎？

And then, Tim, the bigger picture question again, to the extent that you have a view, where do you see innovation, especially in the alcoholic and near beer side? I recognize you're not being necessarily in beer, you are trying to grow in other end markets. What appetite, what momentum do you see out of that customer base and the likelihood that they're going to continue to use cans or to grow their use of cans, '25, '26 and thereabouts?

然後，提姆，更大的問題又來了，就你的觀點而言，你認為創新在哪裡，特別是在酒精和近啤酒方面？我知道你們不一定要主營啤酒業務，你們正在嘗試拓展其他終端市場。您認為該客戶群的需求和發展動能如何？在 25、26 年左右，他們繼續使用罐頭或增加罐頭使用量的可能性有多大？

Thanks, George. So George, in terms of FX, the rates of -- the dollar strengthened considerably in the fourth quarter. If we look at year on year, the impact of translation, it's probably impacting the projection by about $0.10, which is already baked into our guide. From a pension perspective, pension, as you know, we annuitized the US, largely US and Canadian pension plan. And I would expect improvement in the neighborhood of like $0.08, I think, is the number of the improvement.

謝謝，喬治。喬治，就外匯而言，美元匯率在第四季大幅走強。如果我們逐年查看翻譯的影響，它可能對預測產生約 0.10 美元的影響，這已經包含在我們的指南中。從退休金的角度來看，如您所知，我們將美國退休金，主要是美國和加拿大的退休金計劃進行了年金化。我預計改進幅度會在 0.08 美元左右，我認為，這是改進的數字。

And then, George, just dealing with the other question around innovation, we're fortunate that there's no shortage of folks out there looking to develop and market brands. And you look at price points in the marketplace, what the consumer is prepared to pay higher price points for lends you to energy and alcoholic, not the CSD and certainly not to flat water.

然後，喬治，只需處理有關創新的另一個問題，我們很幸運，那裡不乏尋求開發和行銷品牌的人。看看市場上的價格點，消費者願意支付更高價格購買的是能量飲料和酒精飲料，而不是碳酸飲料，當然也不是淡水。

So I would expect we're going to continue to see a variety of flavored vodka based and other alcoholic-based years -- flavors like tequila, et cetera, as opposed to the malts that were the original alcoholics that came out. And I think we're going to continue to see a variety of energy and/or other quasi energy, nutraceutical infused drinks that are potentially -- or viewed as potentially performance enhancing.

因此，我預計我們將繼續看到各種口味的伏特加酒和其他以酒精為基礎的​​酒，例如龍舌蘭酒等，而不是最初的麥芽酒。我認為，我們將繼續看到各種能量和/或其他準能量、營養飲料，它們具有潛在的——或被視為具有潛在的提高運動表現的潛力。

But I think that the upshot to that is that traditionally -- well, I'll say it this way. I think the upshot to that is those drinks are largely offered in the can. And the products that they -- so it's either incremental and/or the products that they are cannibalizing are offered in can or other substrates. So it's a a certain pickup for us, and it doesn't mean we're cannibalizing the can. It could be that we're picking up total share of stomach as a substrate within the can.

但我認為，這樣做的結果是，傳統上——好吧，我會這樣說。我認為結果是這些飲料大多以罐裝形式提供。他們提供的產品要么是增量產品，要么是他們正在蠶食的產品，這些產品都是以罐頭或其他基質形式提供的。所以這對我們來說肯定是一種收穫，但這並不意味著我們要蠶食整個市場。這可能是因為我們拾取了罐子裡全部的胃作為基質。

Okay. So Elle, I think you said that was the last question. So thanks to everybody for joining us. We'll speak to you again in April after the completion of the first quarter. Bye now.

好的。所以 Elle，我想你說這是最後一個問題。感謝大家的參與。第一季結束後，我們將於四月再次與您交談。再見了。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you, everyone, for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。