Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Crown Holdings first quarter 2025 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

早安，歡迎參加皇冠控股 2025 年第一季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在我想將電話轉給資深副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, [Elle] and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings releases, it's available on our website at crowncourt.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements.

謝謝你，[Elle]，早安。和我一起參加今天電話會議的是總裁兼執行長 Tim Donahue。如果您尚未收到財報，請造訪我們的網站 crowncourt.com 取得。與財報發表會一樣，本次電話會議中我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與此類陳述有重大差異。

Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including our Form 10-K for 2024 and subsequent filings. Earnings for the quarter were $1.65 per share compared to $0.56 per share in the prior year quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.67 compared to $1.02 in the prior year quarter.

有關可能導致實際結果發生變化的因素的更多信息，包含在新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括我們 2024 年的 10-K 表格和後續文件。本季每股收益為 1.65 美元，而去年同期每股收益為 0.56 美元。調整後每股收益為 1.67 美元，而去年同期為 1.02 美元。

Net sales in the quarter were up 3.7% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting a 1% increase in global beverage can volumes, 16% increase in North American food can volumes, the pass through of higher raw material costs partially offset by lower volumes in transit packaging.

本季淨銷售額與去年同期相比成長 3.7%，其中全球飲料罐銷量成長 1%，北美食品罐銷量成長 16%，原料成本上漲部分被運輸包裝銷售下降所抵銷。

Segment income was $398 million in the quarter compared to $308 million in the prior year, reflecting higher beverage game volumes in Americas and European beverage, increased volumes in North American food, and improved manufacturing performance in the beverage businesses.

本季分部營收為 3.98 億美元，而去年同期為 3.08 億美元，這反映了美洲和歐洲飲料銷量的增加、北美食品銷量的增加以及飲料業務製造績效的提高。

The company returned $233 million to shareholders in the first quarter of 2025, including $203 million of share repurchases after returning $336 million in the full year of 2024. The company had a strong first quarter with year on year improvements in segment income, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow.

該公司在 2024 年全年向股東返還 3.36 億美元後，於 2025 年第一季向股東返還 2.33 億美元，其中包括 2.03 億美元的股票回購。該公司第一季表現強勁，分部營收、調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流均較去年同期改善。

As we look forward, the potential impact of tariffs creates a wide range of possibilities, including potential slowdown in consumer industrial activities. With all of this in mind, we're raising our guidance for the full year adjusted EPS to $6.70 to $7.10 and project the second quarter EPS to be in the range of $1.80 compared to $1.90.

展望未來，關稅的潛在影響將帶來多種可能性，包括消費工業活動可能放緩。考慮到所有這些因素，我們將全年調整後每股收益預期上調至 6.70 美元至 7.10 美元，並預計第二季每股收益將在 1.80 美元至 1.90 美元之間。

Our adjusted earnings guidance for the full year includes modest changes in certain assumptions. We now expect net interest expense to be approximately $360 million. Exchange rates assume a [EUR108] to the dollar. Non-controlling interest expense to be $160 million and dividends to non-controlling interest are expected to be approximately $140 million.

我們調整後的全年獲利預期包括對某些假設的適度調整。我們現在預計淨利息支出約為 3.6 億美元。匯率假設為 [EUR108] 兌美元。非控制權益支出為 1.6 億美元，非控制權益股利預計約 1.4 億美元。

Remaining unchanged are assumptions for a full year tax rate of approximately 25% and depreciation of approximately $310 million. Also unchanged, we currently estimate 2025 full year adjusted free cash flow to be approximately $800 million after $450 million of capital spending. And at the end of '25, we expect net leverage to be approximately 2.5 times. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

保持不變的是全年稅率約為 25% 且折舊約為 3.1 億美元的假設。同樣保持不變的是，我們目前估計，在 4.5 億美元的資本支出後，2025 年全年調整後的自由現金流約為 8 億美元。到 25 年底，我們預計淨槓桿率將達到約 2.5 倍。說完這些，我會把電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, Kevin. As always, a sea of numbers. Good morning to everyone. As reflected in last night's earnings release and as Kevin just summarized, Crown got off to a tremendous start in 2025 with segment income up 29% over the prior year. First quarter beverage cans segment income improved 24% over the prior year, led by higher-than-expected shipments in the Americas and Europe.

謝謝你，凱文。一如既往，數字的海洋。大家早安。正如昨晚的收益報告所反映的以及凱文剛才總結的那樣，皇冠在 2025 年取得了良好的開端，其分部收入比上一年增長了 29%。第一季飲料罐部門營收較上年同期成長 24%，主要得益於美洲和歐洲的出貨量高於預期。

Outstanding manufacturing performance globally, including some additional benefits from the prior year's Asian capacity, optimization program also contributed to the excellent results. In total, earnings per share were significantly ahead of last year, reflecting a quarter in which we executed very well.

全球範圍內出色的製造業績，包括上一年亞洲產能的一些額外優勢以及優化計劃，也促成了優異的業績。整體而言，每股盈餘大幅高於去年同期，反映出我們本季表現非常出色。

America's beverage reported a 25% income improvement over a very strong first quarter last year. This was led by higher-than-expected quarterly volumes in North America and Brazil, up 2% and 11%, respectively. The segment also benefited from high utilization rates as we build inventory for what looks to be a strong summer selling season and a tightening supply situation.

美國飲料公司報告稱，其收入較去年第一季的強勁增長了 25%。其中，北美和巴西的季度銷量分別成長 2% 和 11%，高於預期。由於我們為強勁的夏季銷售季節和緊張的供應情況建立庫存，該部門也受益於高利用率。

With little direct tariff impact in this business, we'll keep an eye on consumer demand as the segment strives to achieve income of $1 billion. European beverage volumes improved 5%, with growth noted throughout Eastern and southern Europe and the Gulf states, leading to a more than 30% increase in segment income in the quarter.

由於該業務受關稅的直接影響很小，我們將密切關註消費者需求，因為該部門力爭實現 10 億美元的收入。歐洲飲料銷量成長了 5%，東歐、南歐和海灣國家都成長，導致本季該部門營收成長了 30% 以上。

The conversion to the aluminum beverage can from other substrates continues and almost feels as if it is accelerating, leading to what we expect will be a very tight supply situation for the segment in the summer as well. Again, we expect very little direct tariff impact to this business.

從其他材質向鋁製飲料罐的轉變仍在繼續，而且感覺好像正在加速，這導致我們預計夏季該領域的供應也將非常緊張。再次，我們預期關稅對這項業務的直接影響很小。

Income in Asia Pacific advanced 12% in the quarter, reflecting two important items, the continuing benefits of our efforts to improve revenue quality and our ongoing cost reduction programs. These offset the volume impact from the closure of an underutilized regional facility.

本季亞太地區的營收成長了 12%，反映了兩個重要因素：我們努力提高收入品質以及正在進行的成本削減計畫帶來的持續效益。這些措施抵消了因關閉未充分利用的區域設施而對產量造成的影響。

We do expect the Asia Pacific region to be more sensitive to current global trade tensions. So, we continue to watch consumer demand there closely. As expected, transit performance was down in the first quarter as subdued industrial demand continues, most notably impacting the higher margin equipment and tools business.

我們確實預計亞太地區對當前的全球貿易緊張局勢將更加敏感。因此，我們繼續密切關注那裡的消費者需求。正如預期的那樣，由於工業需求持續低迷，第一季運輸業績下滑，最明顯的影響是利潤率較高的設備和工具業務。

In our view, the transit business is the business that could be most affected by tariffs, both directly and indirectly. For 2025, we have estimated Crown's potential income exposure to be below $30 million in total, below $10 million of direct exposure, and the indirect exposure that is lower spending by our customers given uncertainties in the business environment to be below $20 million.

我們認為，過境業務是受關稅直接和間接影響最大的業務。我們估計，到 2025 年，皇冠的潛在收入風險總額將低於 3,000 萬美元，直接風險將低於 1,000 萬美元，而由於商業環境的不確定性，客戶支出減少的間接風險將低於 2,000 萬美元。

It is important to note that these are just rough estimates at this time and only our best effort to estimate the range of risk that may or may not occur. These estimates are included in the revised guidance shown in last night's earnings release.

值得注意的是，這些只是目前的粗略估計，並且只是我們盡最大努力估計可能發生或可能不會發生的風險範圍。這些估計值包含在昨晚收益報告中顯示的修訂指南中。

First quarter volumes in North American food advanced 16% on the back of increased demand from vegetable and pet food customers. When combined with improving two-piece food can manufacturing performance and a flatter tinplate steel environment in 2025, income and other increased $21 million in the quarter.

由於蔬菜和寵物食品客戶的需求增加，北美食品第一季銷量增加了 16%。結合兩片式食品罐製造性能的提高和 2025 年更加平穩的馬口鐵鋼材環境，本季收入和其他收入增加了 2,100 萬美元。

Reflecting on the first quarter, the beverage can businesses are off to a very good start with the momentum carrying through to the end of April. On a global business, we continue to generate improving margins necessary in our view, considering the amount of capital and manufacturing know-how required to efficiently run beverage can lines at high speeds.

回顧第一季度，飲料罐業務開局良好，這一勢頭持續至四月底。在全球業務中，考慮到高效運行高速飲料罐生產線所需的資本和製造技術，我們認為我們將繼續提高必要的利潤率。

Both 2023 and 2024 were record EBITDA performances for the company, and 2025 is poised to set another record. While the world may feel a bit uncertain, we are well positioned in our markets, and we are reminded in times like these that it is good to be in the can business.

2023 年和 2024 年，該公司的 EBITDA 業績均創下歷史新高，而 2025 年預計再創紀錄。儘管世界可能感覺有點不確定，但我們在市場上佔據了有利地位，在這樣的時刻，我們意識到從事罐頭生意是件好事。

Operationally in the first quarter of '25 was outstanding. To summarize, segment income was up $90 million, trailing 12 months. EBITDA is now above $2 billion for the first time, with EBITDA margins up 260 basis points in the quarter, a significant increase in North American food can volumes led by pet foods, improved cash flow from operating activities now positive in the first quarter.

25 年第一季的營運表現非常出色。總而言之，過去 12 個月，該部門收入成長了 9,000 萬美元。EBITDA 首次超過 20 億美元，本季 EBITDA 利潤率上升了 260 個基點，以寵物食品為主導的北美食品罐頭銷量大幅增加，第一季經營活動產生的現金流改善為正。

And we returned more than $200 million to shareholders with minimal impact to our leverage versus year end. Lastly, we want to thank our more than 23,000 associates globally for their hard work and dedication they display each day in supporting Crown's customers.

我們向股東返還了超過 2 億美元，而與年底相比對我們的槓桿率的影響卻微乎其微。最後，我們要感謝全球超過 23,000 名員工，感謝他們每天為支持 Crown 客戶所付出的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

As important, I want to congratulate the entire Crown family as together we have surpassed $2 billion in EBITDA for the first time. And with that, [Elle], I think we are now ready to take questions.

同樣重要的是，我要祝賀整個皇冠家族，因為我們的 EBITDA 首次超過了 20 億美元。好了，[Elle]，我想我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, BofA

（操作員指示）美國銀行 George Staphos

Thanks so much. Hi everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Hope everyone's well on your side of the phone. So Tim, can you talk to whether your customers are changing any of their normal behavior going into a, the seasonal peak period and what I'm really trying to Is there any anticipatory buying on their part ahead of maybe higher aluminum?

非常感謝。大家好。早安.謝謝你的詳細資料。希望電話那頭的每個人都一切安好。那麼提姆，你能談談你的客戶是否在進入季節性高峰期時改變了他們的正常行為，以及我真正想問的是，在鋁價可能上漲之前，他們是否有任何預期購買？

I know you said it wasn't a direct impact from what you see, but can you, give us a bit of color on how you're seeing that play out and that, one or two follow-ons.

我知道您說過，從您所看到的情況來看，這並不是直接影響，但是您能否向我們稍微介紹一下您如何看待這一結果，以及後續的一兩個影響。

Yeah, George on the beverage can side there, the inventory, let's say the inventory that whether it's empty cans or even filled product that our customers hold is pretty short. I mean, we are Often times, we deliver cans within a pretty tight window. Their demand is a pretty tight window, and they take the cans, they put them through a can washer, and they fill them, oftentimes within 15 to 30 minutes from our delivery.

是的，喬治，在飲料罐方面，庫存，比如說，無論是空罐還是裝滿的產品，我們的客戶持有的庫存都很短缺。我的意思是，我們經常在很短的時間內交付罐頭。他們的需求非常緊迫，他們拿起罐子，用洗罐機清洗，然後​​裝滿，通常在我們交貨後 15 到 30 分鐘內完成。

So, I don't think on the beverage side we've seen any of that. And in fact, we've seen the LME come down quite a bit since the spectre of tariffs was announced, and it's been bouncing around a little, but I think the LME is much cheaper today than it was earlier in the year.

所以，我認為在飲料方面我們還沒有看到任何這樣的情況。事實上，自從關稅威脅公佈以來，我們已經看到倫敦金屬交易所的價格大幅下跌，並且一直在波動，但我認為目前倫敦金屬交易所的價格比今年早些時候便宜得多。

Now, having said that, it's offset a bit by the Midwest premium, but I don't, they have a lot of levers to pull the beverage guys. I think on the food can side perhaps in North America there may have been some pre-buying, ahead of what they thought would be, the tariff implications on two piece steel, as well as anybody.

現在，話雖如此，它被中西部的溢價所抵消了一點，但我不這麼認為，他們有很多槓桿來拉動飲料商。我認為，在食品罐方面，北美可能已經進行了一些預購，超出了他們的預期，對兩片鋼罐的關稅影響以及任何其他產品的影響也存在。

As you know, as well as anybody, George, most of the two piece steel used for food cans in the United States comes from the European suppliers, as the US suppliers are not capable and seem unwilling to invest to supply the full needs of US manufacturers. So, I don't think we've seen a lot of that happen yet.

喬治，您和其他人都知道，美國食品罐使用的兩片鋼材大部分來自歐洲供應商，因為美國供應商沒有能力而且似乎不願意投資來滿足美國製造商的全部需求。所以，我認為我們還沒有看到很多這樣的事情發生。

I think -- we, I'll save the other answer for a different question perhaps, but I think we're -- Kevin and I spent a lot of time talking to the teams, trying to understand if there was any pre-buy that was going on. We didn't, we didn't get the feeling that there was a lot of pre-buy.

我認為——我們，我可能會把另一個答案留到另一個問題上，但我認為我們——凱文和我花了很多時間與團隊交談，試圖了解是否有任何正在進行的預購。我們沒有，我們沒有感覺到有很多預購。

And if we want to sit here and make ourselves feel better and hedge the first quarter a little if we, if the first quarter was $50 or $60 million better than we anticipated, could have $5 or $7 million been related to that? Yeah, but boy, the overwhelming majority of the beat against what we were expecting is just a strong volume and really good execution.

如果我們想坐在這裡讓自己感覺好一點，並對第一季進行一些對沖，如果第一季的業績比我們預期的要好 5000 萬或 6000 萬美元，那麼其中可能包括 500 萬美元或 700 萬美元？是的，但是，與我們預期相反的絕大多數節拍只是強勁的音量和非常好的執行力。

Appreciate all that detail, Tim. That's good to hear. One more question on behavior change. But really more at retail, are you seeing any signs of willingness either by the brand owners or the retailers to promote more? Is that maybe what you're seeing on the food side if you can parse it and then my last question and I'll turn it over.

感謝你提供的所有細節，蒂姆。聽到這個消息真好。還有一個關於行為改變的問題。但實際上，在零售業中，您是否看到品牌所有者或零售商願意進行更多促銷的跡象？如果您能分析一下，這也許是您在食品方面看到的情況，然後是我的最後一個問題，我會把它翻過來。

I recall there being some view that in '25 there'd be some margin compression from PPIs in Europe. It didn't seem like it was much of an effect but just wanted to check in on that and see what effect, if you can relay that might have had and will have in '25. Thank you and good luck in the quarter.

我記得有觀點認為，25 年歐洲的 PPI 會壓縮利潤率。它似乎並沒有造成太大的影響，但我只是想檢查一下，看看有什麼影響，如果你能轉述一下，這可能會產生什麼影響，並且會在 25 年產生影響。謝謝您，祝您本季好運。

I would say on the food can side; I don't think there's any tremendous promotional activity going on. I think we are -- what we are seeing is that one of our large pet food customers coming out of COVID was exceptionally bullish on what they believed their opportunities to be, and I think we're starting to see those opportunities manifesting themselves to the benefit of the customer that we supply and our large customer and pet food.

我想說，在食品罐方面，我認為沒有任何大規模的促銷活動。我認為我們看到的是，我們的一個大型寵物食品客戶在擺脫 COVID 之後，對他們認為的機會異常樂觀，我認為我們開始看到這些機會顯現出來，為我們提供服務的客戶以及我們的大型客戶和寵物食品帶來好處。

And then some of the vegetable guys that we supply, some of them are less seasonal than others, packing a variety of vegetable products, southern vegetables especially, and they're doing quite well. So, I think it's customer mix, could be a little pre-buy in there, but I think it's largely customer mix that's going in our favor.

然後，我們供應的一些蔬菜供應商，其中一些的季節性不如其他人，他們包裝各種蔬菜產品，特別是南方蔬菜，他們的生意相當好。所以，我認為這是客戶組合，可能有一點預先購買，但我認為主要是客戶組合對我們有利。

Any comparisons to there in any too, we should remember that, but please go ahead, Tim.

任何與那裡的比較，我們都應該記住這一點，但是請繼續，蒂姆。

Yeah, and then on the European question, George, I think, listen, I think we, as we began the year, we expected to see some headwinds on what you would describe as PPI or CPI in the various formulas we have throughout Europe. I think that's been overwhelmed by volume and I guess I'll get to it now. I was going to save this for another question, but it begs the answer now.

是的，然後關於歐洲問題，喬治，我認為，聽著，我認為，在年初的時候，我們預計在整個歐洲的各種公式中，你所描述的 PPI 或 CPI 會面臨一些阻力。我認為數量已經太多了，我想我現在就可以開始處理了。我本來想把這個問題留到下次再問，但現在我需要答案。

I think what we're saying, as I said in the prepared remarks, is that we expect a really strong summer selling season. We think the conversion from other substrates is accelerating. I know it's too early to call, it's only one or two quarters of data, but for example, I had the European team give us by country, leaders of consumption versus can growth, and in all cases, canned growth is 2 to 3, sometimes 4% greater than consumption of liters.

我想，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們預計夏季銷售旺季將會非常強勁。我們認為其他基質的轉化正在加速。我知道現在下結論還為時過早，這只是一兩個季度的數據，但例如，我讓歐洲團隊按國家/地區提供消費量與罐裝飲料增長情況，在所有情況下，罐裝飲料的增長速度都比升裝飲料的消費量高出 2% 到 3%，有時甚至高出 4%。

And so either we're selling a lot of small cans or there's a substrate shift happening, and I think it's a substrate shift ongoing and accelerating. So, I think to the extent that we were concerned with PPI, that PPI is going to be there, but I expect that it's going to be overwhelmed by volume gains.

因此，要么我們銷售大量小罐裝飲料，要么正在發生基質轉變，我認為基質轉變正在持續並且正在加速。因此，我認為，就我們對 PPI 的擔憂而言，PPI 將會存在，但我預計它將被交易量的成長所淹沒。

Thank you very much, Tim.

非常感謝，提姆。

Thanks George.

謝謝喬治。

Philip Ng, Jefferies LLC

Philip Ng，Jefferies LLC

Hey guys, congrats on another really strong quarter. Tim, you gave us some color on why you think, you haven't seen any pre-buy, in America, but any color on how trends are shaping up in March and April, just kinda get a read on what you're seeing out there. Have you seen any slow down in orders and whatnot?

嘿夥計們，祝賀你們又一個非常強勁的季度。提姆，你向我們解釋了為什麼你認為你在美國沒有看到任何預購，但對於三月和四月趨勢如何形成的任何解釋，只是對你在那裡看到的情況有所了解。您是否發現訂單量有所放緩或其他情況？

No, so I, as we said in the prepared, we might have even said it in the, I think Kevin's quote in the release and in our prepared remarks, the firmness that we felt in demand throughout the first quarter we've seen carried through to the end of April.

不，所以，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們甚至可能在發言中說過，我認為凱文在發布會上和我們準備好的發言中說過，我們在整個第一季度感受到的需求堅定性一直持續到四月底。

And it does feel like, and I know I said it a couple of times in the repair prepared marks, both as it relates to North America and Europe, it does feel like we're going to have a tight supply situation in both geographies this summer. I'm not ready to say that south of the border. I'm not ready to say it out in Southeast Asia, but in our big beverage can businesses in Europe and North America, it feels like things are going to be tight.

而且我確實感覺，而且我知道我在修復準備標記中說過幾次，無論是與北美還是歐洲有關，確實感覺今年夏天我們在這兩個地區都會面臨供應緊張的情況。我還沒準備好在邊境以南說這些。我還沒準備好在東南亞公開表態，但是我們在歐洲和北美的大型飲料罐業務中，感覺情況將會變得緊張。

It feels like it feels like we're going to have a good summer. So I know it's early. We've tried to be cautious with the guidance we've given you. There are some reasons to be cautious with tariffs, but it feels like it's going to be a strong season and. I'm not yet ready to say that there's the reinitiation of substrate shift in North America yet, but I certainly am prepared to say it in Europe.

感覺我們將會度過一個美好的夏天。所以我知道還早。我們盡力謹慎地向您提供指導。有一些理由需要對關稅保持謹慎，但感覺這將是一個強勁的季節。我還沒準備好說北美已經重新啟動了基質轉移，但我肯定準備在歐洲說這一點。

Okay. And then the last quarter you gave us a view of how you're thinking about North America performance for crown versus the market in '25 and '26, kind of expected to be in line with the market in '25 in North America and perhaps a little faster in '26. Any update on that front in terms of, I believe you got some CST contracts that could be up for renewal on that time frame. Any color on that front?

好的。然後在上個季度，您向我們介紹了您對北美皇冠汽車表現與 25 年和 26 年市場表現的看法，預計 25 年皇冠汽車的表現將與北美市場保持一致，26 年可能會更快一些。關於這方面有什麼更新嗎？我相信您已經獲得了一些可以在該時間段內續約的 CST 合約。前面有顏色嗎？

So I think that We'll be materially in line when I say materially whether we're 0.5% above or a 0.5% below in 25% with the market, and in '26, based on what we see now, we should be ahead of the market. I think same as we've said before.

因此，我認為，當我說我們在 25% 的時間內是比市場高 0.5% 還是低 0.5% 時，我們將實質上保持一致，而在 26 年，根據我們現在看到的情況，我們應該領先於市場。我認為就像我們之前說的一樣。

And then just last one for me on the transit side, results were actually really stable, from Q4 to Q1, I think implicit in your guidance you're baking in some potential softness from tariffs and whatnot. I'm curious to hear what you're seeing on the quoting and order side of things. Have you seen any slowdown in activity, anything that's pushed out from a timing perspective on the transit side of things thus far?

最後，對我來說，關於運輸方面，結果實際上非常穩定，從第四季度到第一季度，我認為您的指導中隱含著您考慮到了關稅等因素帶來的潛在疲軟。我很好奇想聽聽您在報價和訂單方面看到的情況。到目前為止，您是否發現活動有任何放緩，或者從時間角度來看，在運輸方面有任何延遲？

Yeah, that's just an absolutely excellent question. We are seeing a multitude of quoting opportunities. Quoting is very high. Actual orders for equipment and other longer lead time items is a little slower than we'd like to see.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題。我們看到了大量的報價機會。引用率非常高。設備和其他較長交貨期物品的實際訂單比我們希望看到的要慢一些。

And I think that's a function of customers across a wide variety of industries being very careful with their capital budgets because they're uncertain as to what's going to happen in the economy in general as we look out [69, 1215] months, so.

我認為這是因為各行各業的客戶都非常謹慎地使用他們的資本預算，因為他們不確定在未來 [69, 1215] 個月內整個經濟將會發生什麼。

The opportunity for us is a as you point out, we think quite high. We, we've significantly reduced the cost footprint across the entire organization globally, which has helped us maintain firmer profitability perhaps than you would have expected from a business that has been, I think, improperly characterized in the past as being overly cyclical.

正如您所指出的，我們認為我們面臨的機會相當大。我們大幅降低了全球整個組織的成本足跡，這有助於我們保持更穩健的獲利能力，或許比你對一個過去被錯誤地描述為過度週期性的業務的預期還要高。

I think it's a lot less cyclical than it used to be, but having said that, it is still is certainly more cyclical than cans. But the opportunity for us when industrial demand returns and customers get more comfortable with their capital budgets and they're willing to redeploy capital to reduce their long-term costs by making the back end of their processes more efficient, that is by taking labor out, we see the opportunity as being quite robust now.

我認為它的周期性比以前要小得多，但話雖如此，它仍然比罐頭更具週期性。但是，當工業需求回升，客戶對其資本預算更加滿意，並願意重新部署資本，透過提高流程後端的效率（即減少勞動力）來降低長期成本時，我們認為現在的機會相當強勁。

In the interim, what's happening, they're taking labor out of the back end right now because they don't see the need for the labor. But as they see demand pick up in their own businesses, they have two choices, try to automate the back end of the line or bring the labor back, and we're hopeful that they continue on the auto automation path.

在此期間，他們正在從後端抽調勞動力，因為他們認為沒有必要。但隨著他們看到自己企業的需求回升，他們有兩個選擇，嘗試實現生產線後端的自動化或將勞動力帶回來，我們希望他們繼續走自動化道路。

Do you have any supply chain stuff with equipment, with tariffs and whatnot?

你們有涉及設備、關稅等的供應鏈材料嗎？

So we, as we said, we estimate the direct impact of tariffs being below $10 million, and most of that fill, I want to tell you that most of that is equipment that we make for customers in Europe that gets distributed in the US and or components that we make for ourselves that we then assemble in the US, but the components are made in Europe.

因此，正如我們所說，我們估計關稅的直接影響低於 1000 萬美元，其中大部分是我們為歐洲客戶生產的設備，然後在美國分銷，或者我們為自己生產的零件，然後在美國組裝，但這些零件是在歐洲製造的。

Most of that is internal but still subject to tariffs, and that would be as we sit here and look at the balance of the year, assuming That the 90 day holiday on tariffs comes off and so we start feeling that in June, July. That's the less than $10 million.

其中大部分是內部的，但仍然要繳納關稅，當我們坐在這裡看看今年的餘額時，假設90天的關稅假期結束，那麼我們將在6月、7月開始感受到這一點。這還不到 1000 萬美元。

Okay, thank you so much.

好的，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ghansham Panjabi, Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc.

Ghansham Panjabi，羅伯特·W·貝爾德公司

Thank you, operator. Good morning everybody.

謝謝您，接線生。大家早安。

Morning. Gotcha.

早晨。明白了。

Morning. I guess, Tim, going back to the America's beverage segment specific to profitability, I know that in North American volumes we're up 2%, Brazil up 11%, but the incrementals were just, phenomenal, 50% almost incremental margins in that segment, can you give us a bit more color as to what drove that?

早晨。提姆，我想回到美國飲料部門具體的盈利能力，我知道北美的銷量增長了 2%，巴西增長了 11%，但增量非常驚人，該部門的利潤率幾乎增加了 50%，您能否給我們詳細介紹一下推動這一增長的因素？

And then secondly, one Q is a smaller kind of tail quarter, it's dangerous to sort of linearized trends from the first quarter because a lot can happen between now and the end of the year. So what gives you confidence specifically as it relates to your comment about the strong summer selling season?

其次，第一季是尾部較小的一個季度，從第一季開始對趨勢進行線性化是危險的，因為從現在到年底可能會發生很多事情。那麼，對於您關於夏季銷售旺季的評論，是什麼讓您充滿信心呢？

All good questions. So, Ghansham, what I would say is that as you start running, as you start adding incremental units to factories that are pretty well loaded to begin with, it's all gravy as you start, it's like a spillover effect, and we are running well, right? We've, as we and others have brought back, brought up a number of large multi-line, multi-sized factories over the last several years.

這些都是很好的問題。所以，甘沙姆，我想說的是，當你開始運轉時，當你開始向一開始就裝載得很好的工廠添加增量單元時，一開始一切都會很順利，就像溢出效應一樣，我們運轉得很好，對吧？正如我們和其他人所恢復的那樣，在過去幾年中，我們已經建立了許多大型多生產線、多規模的工廠。

We are through learning curve on each of those plants and we're running real well. There's always one-offs here and there, but I don't think there were, there's nothing remarkable to talk about in terms of a one-off. I think these are just volume, incremental volume and running well.

我們已經完成了每個工廠的學習曲線，並且運作得非常好。這裡那裡總是有一次性的事情，但我不認為有，就一次性的事情而言，沒有什麼值得談論的。我認為這些只是數量、增量和運作良好。

I will say that we do believe we were appropriately cautious and appropriately strategic as to how much capital we invested and where we invested and with which customers we invested. So I think we're seeing the benefit of that. As to your second question, yeah, listen, we -- our point is absolutely correct. You can't take the first quarter and just assume the rest of the year is going to look like the first quarter.

我想說的是，我們確實相信，對於我們投資了多少資金、在哪裡投資以及與哪些客戶投資，我們都採取了適當的謹慎和適當的策略。所以我認為我們看到了它的好處。至於你的第二個問題，是的，聽著，我們──我們的觀點是完全正確的。你不能根據第一季的情況，就假設今年剩餘時間的情況與第一季的情況相同。

We generally always try to be a bit cautious as we look out for the balance of the year when we're talking to you in April or May. And we had a really big first quarter. I don't think you want to, I think we're going to have a pretty good second quarter, but in no way should you model the second quarter growth over last year to be similar to what the growth in the first quarter was over the prior year.

當我們在四月或五月與您交談時，我們通常總是盡量謹慎一些，因為我們會專注於今年的平衡。我們第一季的表現確實非常出色。我認為你不會想這樣做，我認為我們將會有一個相當不錯的第二季度，但你絕不應該將去年第二季度的成長與去年第一季的成長進行比較。

And but it does feel like demand is, demand is really high right now. Now, having said that, we got a lot of cans we got to sell. You got to get through the second and third quarter, the next five or six months. There are a lot of cans that need to leave the warehouse and get through the entire distribution system through to the consumers, be consumed. And then we start rebuilding inventory in Q4 for the following season. So there's a lot to happen as you rightly point out.

但確實感覺現在的需求確實很高。現在，話雖如此，我們有很多罐頭需要出售。你必須度過第二季度和第三季度，以及接下來的五六個月。有很多罐頭需要離開倉庫，透過整個分銷系統到達消費者手中，被消費。然後我們將在第四季開始為下一季重建庫存。因此，正如您正確指出的那樣，還有很多事情要做。

Okay, great. And then my second question, just kind of going through the earnings season and listening to comments out of your customers across. Let's say the consumer product group ecosystem, they're throwing out tremendous numbers as relates to cost increases specific to tariffs and so on.

好的，太好了。我的第二個問題是，回顧財報季，聽聽客戶的評論。假設消費品集團生態系統，他們拋出了大量與關稅等成本增加相關的數字。

Obviously, they've outlined mitigation strategies against that and we'll try to take up some price but just in your conversations with customers, do you sense anything different in terms of how they approach, their own promotional cadence and so on and so forth as the year unfolds in context of, obviously, a huge increase in costs.

顯然，他們已經概述了針對這種情況的緩解策略，我們將嘗試承擔一些價格，但在與客戶的交談中，您是否感覺到他們在處理方式、他們自己的促銷節奏等方面有什麼不同，因為隨著時間的推移，成本顯然大幅增加。

Yes, I mean, when you, I mean, let's as it relates to our business, the tariff impacts, not, notwithstanding the LME or the Midwest premium, just the spectre of tariff impacts from bringing in primary aluminum from Canada, and I think it's pretty well documented that that's about, perhaps it's $0.01 a can, and it sounds like a lot but it can be absorbed through to the consumer without a lot of pain.

是的，我的意思是，當你，我的意思是，就我們的業務而言，關稅的影響，儘管有倫敦金屬交易所或中西部溢價，但只是從加拿大進口原鋁的關稅影響，我認為有充分的證據表明，這大約是，也許是每罐 0.01 美元，聽起來很多，但它可以被消費者吸收，而不會帶來太多痛苦。

Food can side a little bit, the food can customers, a lot of these customers are family businesses with great brands, and they have a perhaps a little bit less leeway to operate in that environment and steel tariffs, there's been steel tariffs now for seven or eight years through a couple of administrations, and they're not happy with it and they need to find a way to deal with it through their supply chains through to the retailers.

罐頭食品有點偏向一邊，食品罐頭的客戶，很多客戶都是擁有知名品牌的家族企業，在這種環境下，他們的經營自由度可能稍微小一些，而且鋼鐵關稅已經實施了七八年，歷經幾屆政府，鋼鐵關稅已經實施了，他們對此很不滿意，需要找到一種方法，通過他們的供應鏈到零售商來解決這個問題。

But food can still offer an incredibly economic way for families to feed themselves with healthy nutritious foods. So, we're all going to have to deal with this and but we are not --other than tin plate steel that comes in from Europe and primary aluminum which comes in for the non-recycled piece, which comes into the United States, our industry not overwhelmingly impacted by trade flows from China and or other locations.

但食物仍然可以為家庭提供一種極其經濟的方式來獲取健康營養的食物。因此，我們都必須應對這個問題，但除了來自歐洲的鍍錫鋼板和進入美國的不可回收原鋁外，我們的行業並沒有受到來自中國或其他地區的貿易流的巨大影響。

And it's it feels like it can be absorbed without through to the consumer without massive increases. I mean, remember the customers, our customers took prices up a few years ago in response to the LME hitting $4,000, the LME is certainly backed off a long way from $4,000, and they haven't really reduced those selling prices a whole lot, so.

感覺它無需透過消費者就能被吸收，而且不會大幅增加。我的意思是，記住客戶，幾年前，我們的客戶為了應對倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 價格達到 4,000 美元而提高了價格，而倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 的價格肯定已經從 4,000 美元回落了很遠，而且他們並沒有真正大幅降低銷售價格，所以。

Okay. Got it. Thanks so much.

好的。知道了。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stefan Diaz, Morgan Stanley

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬·迪亞茲

Hello, good morning, Tim. Good morning, Kevin. Thanks for taking my questions and congrats on a strong quarter. So maybe just to start, so we had, roughly $0.40 beat in one Q, 10% guide up at the midpoint. Is this just conservatism or, what are some of the puts in the back half that you're seeing or is this just the headwinds that you outlined, in your transit business due to, tariffs? Thanks.

你好，早安，提姆。早安，凱文。感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀本季業績強勁。因此，也許只是開始，所以我們在一個季度中大約超過了 0.40 美元，中間點上漲了 10%。這僅僅是保守主義嗎？還是您認為下半年會出現哪些不利因素？或者這僅僅是您在運輸業務中概述的由於關稅而遇到的阻力？謝謝。

Yeah, I would have, I'm assuming that had we not spent some time on tariffs and what the potential impact on tariffs could be specifically in the transit business that you would have met a forecast for the balance of the year that didn't look like the one we generated with a lot more skepticism than you are viewing the one we did put out there.

是的，我會的，我假設如果我們沒有花時間研究關稅以及對關稅的潛在影響，特別是在運輸業務中，那麼您會對今年的餘額做出預測，而這個預測看起來並不像我們生成的預測，而您對我們發布的預測持懷疑態度。

I think we tried to be thoughtful around what the impact could be and we tried to provide a forecast that encapsulated what we think we know, understanding that things are fluid and they're changing rapidly and we don't really know if the 90 day holiday here that he's given everybody is going to be extended or what's going to happen. So it's just, it was our best effort to provide you with something that we thought was thoughtful.

我認為，我們試圖認真考慮可能產生的影響，並試圖提供一個預測，概括我們認為我們知道的情況，了解事情是不斷變化的，而且它們在迅速變化，我們真的不知道他給大家的 90 天假期是否會延長，或者會發生什麼。所以，我們只是盡最大努力為您提供我們認為周到的東西。

Great, that's helpful. And then, last quarter I think you guided to roughly like $275-ish, $300 million-ish share repurchases. You were purchased a little over $200 in one queue. Maybe one, is this still the right range, to expect where sharer purchases might end up.

太好了，很有幫助。然後，我認為上個季度您指導的股票回購金額約為 2.75 億美元至 3 億美元左右。您在一個隊列中就購買了 200 多美元。也許首先，這仍然是正確的範圍，可以預測共享購買的最終結果。

And then maybe quickly if I could just sort of slip in one more, I think last quarter you said FX was roughly a $0.10 headwind, given, dollar weakness, what are you sort of assuming for FX now? Thanks.

然後，如果我可以再插播一點，我想上個季度您說過，考慮到美元疲軟，外匯對美元的影響大約是 0.10 美元，您現在對外匯有何假設？謝謝。

So, I think you're spot on in terms of share repurchases. We'll purchase somewhere around $300 million maybe slightly less than that. And then on FX, we originally assumed, and I'll give you EUR as the reference at [$103]. We're at forecasting now at [$108], clearly a lot of volatility in the FX market right now.

所以，我認為你關於股票回購的說法是正確的。我們的採購金額約為 3 億美元，甚至可能略低於這個數字。關於外匯，我們最初假設，我會以歐元作為參考[103美元]。我們現在預測的價格為[108美元]，顯然目前外匯市場波動很大。

If we were to assume the FX rates stay the same between, stay at [$114], which is where the EUR is today, it's probably a benefit to loss of another $0.05. So we have encapsulated some FX gains in our forecast.

如果我們假設外匯匯率維持在[114美元]之間，也就是歐元目前的水平，那麼再損失0.05美元可能也是有好處的。因此，我們在預測中已經包含了部分外匯收益。

Thank you, I'll turn it over.

謝謝，我會轉過來的。

Chris Parkinson, Wolfe Research

沃爾夫研究公司的克里斯·帕金森

Great, thank you so much for taking my question. Just you've done a lot over the last couple of years in the US, Asia, and even Europe just to further improve your operational performance and leverage, a lot of your new lines on an ongoing basis.

太好了，非常感謝您回答我的問題。過去幾年裡，你們在美國、亞洲甚至歐洲做了很多工作，進一步提高了營運績效和槓桿率，並且持續推出了許多新生產線。

Can you just give us an update by geography on how you think there are, those are going at this juncture, given it's been a few years and how much is perhaps left for improvement, or do you feel you've already hit your stride? Thank you.

您能否按地區向我們介紹一下目前的情況？考慮到已經過了幾年，您認為目前這些方面還有多少需要改進？或者您覺得自己已經達到最佳狀態了？謝謝。

Oh well, Chris, they. I want to make sure I don't say this, and I insult our manufacturing teams, but I think there's always room for improvement. Our manufacturing teams are always looking for ways to continuously improve.

哦，好吧，克里斯，他們。我想確保我不會說這樣的話，而且我會侮辱我們的製造團隊，但我認為總是有改進的空間。我們的製造團隊一直在尋找持續改進的方法。

Having said that, the performance they've demonstrated over the last several years has been nothing short of what we would characterize as remarkable given the amount of work required to integrate new factories and new lines, new sizes, changeovers of size, changing customer demands, whether it's size and design and at the same time expanding margins in the process.

話雖如此，考慮到整合新工廠和新生產線、新尺寸、尺寸轉換、不斷變化的客戶需求（無論是尺寸和設計）以及同時擴大利潤率所需的工作量，他們在過去幾年中表現出的表現堪稱卓越。

So, I point that out because I think what they've done has been remarkable. It's been a large part of the margin expansion that we've experienced over the last several years, but we all know there's always ways to get better. We have, what do we have?

所以，我指出這一點是因為我認為他們所做的非常了不起。這是我們過去幾年經歷的利潤擴張的很大一部分，但我們都知道總有辦法變得更好。我們有，我們有什麼？

17 plants in Europe and across Europe and the Middle East or 14 or 15 plants, and I'm sure there's one or two that we know we can make better and there's some that are just absolutely tremendous. So you know there's always opportunity to improve, but I think that we have really done a good job.

在歐洲和整個歐洲及中東地區有 17 家工廠，或者說有 14 或 15 家工廠，我確信其中有一兩家我們知道可以做得更好，而且有些工廠絕對是非常棒的。所以你知道總有改進的機會，但我認為我們確實做得很好。

I think, as I said last year numerous times, I think the, our team in Asia Pacific, having gone through a period of tremendous growth, really embraced the notion that we are a manufacturing company first. And we are going to make cans for profit. We're just not going to make cans for growth.

我認為，正如我去年多次說過的那樣，我們的亞太團隊在經歷了一段巨大的增長期後，真正接受了我們首先是一家製造公司的理念。我們將生產罐頭來獲利。我們不會為了成長而生產罐頭。

And so cost reduction efforts, appropriate downsizing where needed, customer pruning where required to get proper returns on the capital that we deploy, again. I think they've just done a tremendous job.

因此，我們努力降低成本，在需要的地方適當縮減規模，在需要的地方精簡客戶，以便再次獲得我們部署的資本的適當回報。我認為他們已經完成了一項了不起的工作。

Thanks for that and just as a quick follow up, I wholeheartedly understand that you don't necessarily want to get ahead of yourself just given the macro and the ever evolving, situations. But when we think about buy backs, and the cadence for the balance of the year and your, cash conversion, perhaps could you just give us a little insights on your thought process in terms of, how you're evaluating that for the, balance of 2025 Thank you.

謝謝你，作為一個快速的跟進，我完全理解你不一定想超越自己，只是考慮到宏觀和不斷變化的情況。但是，當我們考慮回購、今年餘額的節奏和現金轉換時，也許您能否就您的思考過程給我們一些見解，說明您如何評估 2025 年餘額。謝謝。

You're welcome. So we, as Kevin said, we $200 million accomplished early in Q1 and you probably should consider another, roughly another $100 million for the balance of the year, but I think we want to be mindful of the environment we're in. I think we have a long-term leverage target of 2.5, we're not really that far away from that. I'm not overly concerned.

不客氣。因此，正如凱文所說，我們在第一季初完成了 2 億美元的投資，你可能還應該考慮在今年餘下的時間裡再完成大約 1 億美元的投資，但我認為我們要留意我們所處的環境。我認為我們的長期槓桿目標是 2.5，距離這個目標其實並不遙遠。我並不太擔心。

I think we have some investors, or we have other investors who are not invested in us that would like to see us at that level or lower than that level. So you want to make the company as attractive to as many investors as possible to drive value. And we have a significant amount of debt that we do need to refinance over the next year or two. So we're mindful of all these things.

我認為我們有一些投資者，或者我們有其他沒有投資我們的投資者，他們希望看到我們處於那個水平或低於那個水平。因此，您希望讓公司對盡可能多的投資者俱有吸引力，以推動價值成長。我們有大量債務需要在未來一兩年內再融資。所以我們對所有這些事情都很留意。

It's just a, I think we're fortunate that we have improving operations, we have high demand for our products, we have an improving balance sheet and we have a lot of cash flow that we can address all of these simultaneously.

我認為我們很幸運，我們的營運正在改善，我們的產品需求很高，我們的資產負債表正在改善，而且我們擁有大量現金流，我們可以同時解決所有這些問題。

Helpful color. Thank you very much.

有用的顏色。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi Group

安東尼·佩蒂納裡（Anthony Pettinari），花旗集團

Good morning. Tim, you referenced, tight supply situation for the summer in Europe and America's Bev, and I'm wondering if there are things you're doing to in your system to de bottleneck extra cans and more broadly as you see accelerated substrate, shift and maybe think about '26 and beyond, are there regions where capacity additions may ultimately be required to meet, your customers' needs?

早安.提姆，您提到了歐洲和美國飲料夏季供應緊張的情況，我想知道您是否正在系統中採取措施來消除多餘罐頭的瓶頸，更廣泛地說，隨著您看到基質加速轉移，也許會想到 26 年及以後，是否有地區最終需要增加產能來滿足客戶的需求？

Can you just talk generally about how much runway you have before you maybe start to bump into?

您能否大致談談在開始發生碰撞之前您擁有多少跑道？

Yeah, listen, I didn't mean to chuckle when you asked the question the bottlenecking the -- these are, we're always trying to become more efficient and the bottleneck. The problem you have when we get into the season, there's no time to get creative and thoughtful about how you're going to do this. You're just running cans and so we'll, we're obviously we understand where the those bottlenecks are we'll get to it when the season slows down.

是的，聽著，當你問到瓶頸問題時，我並不是想笑——這些都是我們一直在努力提高效率和瓶頸。當我們進入賽季時，你面臨的問題是，沒有時間發揮創造力和思考如何做到這一點。你只是在運行罐子，所以我們顯然知道這些瓶頸在哪裡，當季節放緩時我們會解決它。

But when you're in the season, you're just making cans and you're trying to be thoughtful about how you fill orders and put the odors in the right locations with the right run lengths and etc.to generate as many cans as possible, but it's really hard to do in season.

但是當你處於旺季時，你只是在製作罐頭，你會試圖認真考慮如何填寫訂單，並將氣味放在正確的位置，以正確的運行長度等，以生產盡可能多的罐頭，但這在旺季真的很難做到。

The second part of your question. Yeah, given the ongoing substrate shift that we believe is happening in Europe, there may be more capacity required. We are adding some capacity in Greece right now and we'll continue to evaluate the other markets around the continental Europe and the Middle East as we go forward.

你的問題的第二部分。是的，鑑於我們認為歐洲正在發生的基板轉移，可能需要更多的產能。我們目前正在希臘增加一些產能，我們將繼續評估歐洲大陸和中東的其他市場。

Okay, that that's helpful. And then you talked about, relatively minimal impact from tariffs to your Bev Can business, but I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about your Mexican business, to what extent they're seeing any impact or maybe percentage of your, volumes that are going to the domestic Mexican market?

好的，這很有幫助。然後您談到，關稅對您的 Bev Can 業務的影響相對較小，但我想知道您是否可以談談您的墨西哥業務，他們受到的影響程度如何，或者您銷往墨西哥國內市場的銷量佔比是多少？

And then conversely in Canada, you have, I think, an exposure to Canadian beer. We read about consumers their kind of favoring domestic brands increasingly. Just wondering if you could talk about, Mexico and Canada in the context of tariffs and if it kind of moves the needle.

相反，在加拿大，我認為你會接觸到加拿大啤酒。我們了解到消費者越來越青睞國內品牌。只是想知道您是否可以談論墨西哥和加拿大在關稅方面的狀況，以及這是否會產生影響。

Oh absolutely, thank you for the question. I, so our Mexican beverage can business almost exclusively the cans we sell are filled and distributed in Mexico. Very few cans that our customers fill in Mexico get exported to the United States. So we don't have that impact, that direct impact from tariffs. We don't, again, we don't see a much of a direct impact on tariffs to our Mexican business.

哦，當然，謝謝你的提問。因此，我們的墨西哥飲料罐業務幾乎全部是我們在墨西哥銷售的罐子並進行分銷。我們的客戶在墨西哥裝滿的罐子很少出口到美​​國。因此，我們不會受到關稅的直接影響。我們再次強調，我們沒有看到關稅對我們的墨西哥業務產生太大的直接影響。

What we do worry about in a geography like Mexico would be the indirect impact that is consumer demand. I think that in any market where disposable income is less, and there could be a variety of products that become more expensive, especially if Mexico institutes retaliatory tariffs against the US for the US, for those products that have to come into the US from the US into Mexico.

在墨西哥這樣的地區，我們真正擔心的是消費者需求帶來的間接影響。我認為，在任何可支配收入較少的市場中，各種各樣的產品都可能變得更加昂貴，特別是如果墨西哥對美國徵收報復性關稅，對於那些必須從美國進入墨西哥的產品。

And it makes it more expensive for Mexican citizens, and you do worry how much of their remaining disposable income will be used to purchase soft drinks and or beer. So, for us in Mexico, indirect is almost nothing that our customers feel come to the US.

這使得墨西哥公民的生活成本更高，你確實擔心他們剩餘的可支配收入中有多少將用於購買軟性飲料和啤酒。因此，對於我們墨西哥人來說，間接性幾乎與我們的客戶來到美國時的感覺無關。

Canada, I think, as you rightly point out, we have two very well run facilities, one in Toronto, one in Calgary, supplying soft drinks and beer to the extent that Canadians want to consume more Canadian beer as opposed to US imports that will benefit us. I don't -- if there's large tariff impacts for Canadian beer that's exported into the US, I don't see that as a large impact to our Canadian business.

加拿大，我認為，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們有兩個運作良好的設施，一個在多倫多，一個在卡加利，供應軟性飲料和啤酒，以至於加拿大人願意消費更多的加拿大啤酒，而不是美國進口啤酒，這將使我們受益。我不認為——如果關稅對出口到美國的加拿大啤酒產生重大影響，我認為這不會對我們的加拿大業務產生重大影響。

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 Arun Viswanathan

Hey guys, sorry about that. Congrats on a very strong quarter. Definitely nice to see that, I guess a few questions here. So first on the guidance, going back to your commentary, so if you said that tariffs in total were about $30 million for the year, maybe tax affect that and you get about $0.15 to $0.20. Is that the right way to think about it?

嘿夥計們，很抱歉。恭喜本季業績表現強勁。很高興看到這一點，我想這裡有幾個問題。首先，關於指導意見，回到您的評論。如果您說今年的關稅總額約為3000萬美元，那麼稅收可能會影響到這個數字，最終約為0.15美元到0.20美元。這樣想對嗎？

And the related question I had there was that you did provide some Q2 guidance as well. And so if we put that in and assume the midpoint of the full year, we're only getting for to about $3.40 for this for the back half versus, $370 to $380 current consensus.

我所問的相關問題是，您也提供了一些第二季的指導。因此，如果我們把這個數字放進去，並假設全年的中點，那麼下半年的價格只能達到 3.40 美元左右，而目前的普遍預期是 370 至 380 美元。

So, there's obviously a big shortfall. I appreciate the uncertainty in the environment right now, but it does imply kind of a pretty large drop off especially for Q4. So, maybe you can just help square some of those thoughts out if you can. Thanks.

因此，顯然存在著很大的缺口。我知道現在的環境存在不確定性，但這確實意味著會出現相當大的下降，尤其是在第四季。因此，如果可以的話，也許您可以幫助理清一些想法。謝謝。

Yeah, I think that the $30, roughly $30 million or less than $30 million we described was specifically related to transit. There always is in answering Anthony's question, there always is a little bit of concern in a market like Mexico or perhaps Southeast Asia that the indirect impact of tariffs and or inflation.

是的，我認為我們描述的 3000 萬美元、大約 3000 萬美元或不到 3000 萬美元與交通運輸有關。在回答安東尼的問題時，人們總是有點擔心墨西哥或東南亞等市場會受到關稅和通貨膨脹的間接影響。

We don't really see recessions impacting our business, but certainly inflation impacts our business. So to the extent that, global trade tensions create inflationary environments in a market like Mexico or Southeast Asia. You could be concerned with demand.

我們確實沒有看到經濟衰退影響我們的業務，但通貨膨脹肯定會影響我們的業務。因此，全球貿易緊張局勢會在墨西哥或東南亞等市場造成通膨環境。您可能會擔心需求。

So you know it's a forecast. I, what I would say, Arun, if you want to look at it differently, if you take the midpoint of our second quarter guidance, and if we hit the third quarter and fourth quarter of last year, then we'd be at the high end of the range that Kevin gave you.

所以你知道這是一個預測。我想說的是，阿倫，如果你想換個角度來看，如果你採用我們第二季度指引的中點，如果我們達到去年第三季度和第四季度的水平，那麼我們將處於凱文給你的範圍的高端。

So there's a variety of ways to look at the guidance we've given you. I would hope that that the investor and analyst community would understand that we're trying to be thoughtful and we don't want you to think with such skepticism that we have our head in the sand and we haven't considered the environment that we live in right now.

因此，您可以透過多種方式來查看我們給您的指導。我希望投資人和分析師群能夠理解，我們正在努力深思熟慮，我們不希望你們帶著懷疑的態度去想，認為我們是在逃避現實，沒有考慮到我們現在所處的環境。

Okay, I appreciate that. And then, I guess similar question on free cash flow, obviously very strong performance. You noted Q1 also strong, stronger than normal I imagine normal seasonality even so with positive. So, do you see upside to free cash flow as you move through the year? What are some headwinds that would prevent that?

好的，我很感激。然後，我想關於自由現金流的問題也類似，顯然表現非常強勁。您指出第一季也很強勁，比正常情況要強勁，我想正常的季節性即便如此也還是積極的。那麼，您是否認為隨著時間推移，自由現金流將會出現上漲？有哪些不利因素會阻礙這一進程？

And then similarly as you move into next year, it sounds like, substrate shift should continue. So, does that portend continued free cash flow growth as well? Should free cash flow kind of grow in line with EBITDA? Thanks.

然後同樣，當你進入明年時，聽起來，基質轉移應該會繼續。那麼，這是否也預示著自由現金流將持續成長？自由現金流是否應該與 EBITDA 同步成長？謝謝。

Yeah, so I don't want to talk about next year. Let's get ahead of ourselves, but I would say it this way. I'd say as we sit here today, we don't see any downside to that cash flow number we've given you. It's early in the year and I know you're looking at the numbers and you're -- if you, if your results in Q1 were $40 million or $50 million better than you thought they were going to be, how does that not flow to cash flow? It's a fair question. We won't be below the $800 million, I don't think.

是的，所以我不想談論明年。讓我們先說說自己的想法，但我想這樣說。我想說，今天我們坐在這裡，我們沒有看到我們給你的現金流數字有任何不利之處。現在是年初，我知道你正在看這些數字，如果你第一季的業績比你預期的要好 4000 萬美元或 5000 萬美元，那麼這怎麼不會轉化為現金流呢？這是一個公平的問題。我認為我們的支出不會低於 8 億美元。

Okay, great. And just lastly, any footprint, you'd consider. You said tight stuff in North America, tight supply and demand for North American Bev Can. Does there need to be any actions taken there? I know there's been a lot of actions back and forth, additions and reductions over the last couple of years. So, maybe it's best to leave it alone, but what are your thoughts on supply demand, especially in some of these tighter markets?

好的，太好了。最後，您會考慮任何足跡。您說的是北美的貨源緊張，北美飲料罐的供應和需求都很緊張。那裡需要採取什麼行動嗎？我知道過去幾年來我們採取了很多反覆的行動，有增加也有減少。所以，也許最好不要管它，但您對供需有何看法，特別是在一些較為緊張的市場中？

Yeah, be careful how I say this. Listen, I think the can industry enjoyed a an environment over the last several years in which the balance between a global consumer companies that buy from us and the can companies. If it was way out of balance before, not in our favor, we gained a little favor back, but it's still not a 50/50 relationship and, the hope is that we're all mindful of supply demand dynamics and we're all mindful that our responsibility is to provide the best returns to our stakeholders.

是的，請小心我說話的方式。聽著，我認為過去幾年來罐頭行業一直處於一種良好的環境中，即從我們這裡購買產品的全球消費公司和罐頭公司之間保持著平衡。如果之前的情況嚴重失衡，對我們不利，那麼我們會獲得一點回報，但這仍然不是 50/50 的關係，希望我們都留意供需動態，我們都留意我們的責任是為利益相關者提供最佳回報。

And my hope would be that before we embark on another rapid capacity expansion program that we all keep that in mind as we go through the next several cycles of contract renegotiations, and that's not meant to tell anybody anything. That's just meant to tell you how we view capital deployment as being responsible to you, our stakeholders.

我希望在我們開始另一個快速產能擴張計劃之前，我們都能在接下來的幾個合約重新談判週期中牢記這一點，這並不意味著要告訴任何人任何事情。這只是想告訴您我們如何將資本部署視為對您（我們的利害關係人）負責。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Michael Leithead, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的邁克爾·萊特黑德。

Great thanks good, Morning guys. Just one for me, morning, 11% Brazil growth this quarter, obviously quite strong. Can you help us understand what drove that number? Was it business mix, category mix, just how you triangulated that performance this quarter and how you think you performed relative to the market there?

非常感謝，大家早安。早安，我只想說一句，巴西本季的經濟成長率為 11%，顯然相當強勁。您能幫助我們了解造成這數字的原因嗎？是業務組合、類別組合，還是您如何衡量本季的表現以及您認為您相對於當地市場的表現如何？

Yeah, sure. I think the market probably 3% or 4%. I would characterize for you our growth in the first quarter largely related to customer mix. If you know anything about the Brazilian market, there are 4 to 5 large customers. There's a variety of small customers, but those large customers make up the large majority of the Brazilian can market and we're aligned with a customer that did quite well and promoted product quite heavily through the carnival season.

是的，當然。我認為市場可能上漲 3% 或 4%。我認為我們第一季的成長主要與客戶結構有關。如果你對巴西市場有所了解，你就會知道有 4 到 5 個大客戶。有各種各樣的小客戶，但這些大客戶構成了巴西罐頭市場的絕大部分，我們與一位在狂歡節期間表現相當出色並大力推銷產品的客戶保持一致。

In Q1, I think that we do not, and you should not expect that we're going to be up 11% each quarter in 2025 in Brazil, but we should be ahead of the market, which I assume the market for the full year in the 2% to 3% range. Now, having said that, we're going into the winter season, but as we get to September and we start to see orders for the summer pack and the following carnival season in '26, we'll have a little bit more clarity.

在第一季度，我認為我們不會，你也不應該期望我們在 2025 年巴西的每個季度都會成長 11%，但我們應該領先於市場，我預計全年市場將在 2% 到 3% 的範圍內。現在，話雖如此，我們即將進入冬季，但隨著進入 9 月份，我們開始看到夏季套裝和 26 年狂歡節季節的訂單，我們會更加清楚。

But, as we've always told you, we're, we've been, we have been, and we remain very bullish on the future of the cans market in Brazil.

但是，正如我們一直告訴您的那樣，我們過去、現在和現在仍然對巴西罐頭市場的未來感到非常樂觀。

Great. Thanks, Tim.

偉大的。謝謝，蒂姆。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Hi, it's Anojja Shah sending in for Josh. Good morning. Good morning. I may have missed this, but did you actually get the volume growth number in Q1 for Europe?

你好，我是 Anojja Shah，替 Josh 轉達的。早安.早安.我可能錯過了這一點，但你真的得到了歐洲第一季的銷售成長數字嗎？

I bet you I did not, but, Mr. Fisher is looking at me right now. He's holding up five fingers, so I think 5%.

我敢打賭我沒有，但是，費雪先生現在正在看著我。他舉起五個手指，所以我認為是 5%。

Okay, thank you. And a large European beer brand last week announced that it's exploring adoption of reusable packaging in their mix. Are you seeing more of this in Europe now as people prepare to address EPR requirements? And if so, can sort of be technically categorized as reusable since they're infinitely recyclable?

好的，謝謝。一家大型歐洲啤酒品牌上周宣布，正在探索在其產品中採用可重複使用的包裝。當人們準備滿足 EPR 要求時，您是否在歐洲看到更多這樣的情況？如果是這樣，那麼從技術上來說，它們是否可以歸類為可重複使用，因為它們可以無限回收？

Listen, I think what we're, we always endeavor to do is increase collection rates and the re recycled content and there are a wide variety of initiatives that various countries in Europe and the European Union have put forward with respect to the sustainability of packaging products, including cans, including whether or not they want refillable containers, reusable containers, recycled content of containers.

聽著，我認為我們一直在努力提高收集率和可回收利用的內容，歐洲各國和歐盟已經針對包裝產品的可持續性提出了各種各樣的舉措，包括罐頭，包括他們是否需要可再填充的容器、可重複使用的容器、容器中的可回收內容。

And we're working exceptionally hard to try to get to 90% across the board in Europe and there comes a time I think we get to 90% we can characterize our products as reusable, refillable, but as you might imagine, the can is not a refillable container, right? So we need to collect and recycle as many units as possible.

我們正在非常努力地嘗試使整個歐洲的覆蓋率達到 90%，我認為，當我們達到 90% 時，我們就可以將我們的產品描述為可重複使用、可再填充的，但正如您可能想像的那樣，罐子並不是一個可再填充的容器，對嗎？因此我們需要收集和回收盡可能多的單位。

Great, thank you. And then just a question on the North America market. I know you said your volumes are up 2%, but any sense of how the market was in Q1 and if you have it, the split between alcoholic and non-alcoholic?

太好了，謝謝。然後只是關於北美市場的一個問題。我知道您說過您的銷量成長了 2%，但您知道第一季的市場狀況嗎？如果有的話，酒精飲料和非酒精飲料的份額如何？

Yeah, well, we don't get all the information anymore. Not all of the can companies report data to our -- and not all the can companies are members of the association we belong to. So I'm guessing we were up 2% in North America. I bet you the market could have been up 3%. It just feels like the market was a little stronger than we initially thought it was going to be, so I tell you 3%.

是的，我們不再能獲得所有資訊了。並非所有罐頭公司都向我們報告數據——也並非所有罐頭公司都是我們所屬協會的成員。所以我猜測我們在北美的銷量成長了 2%。我敢打賭市場可能會上漲 3%。感覺市場比我們最初想的要強勁一些，所以我告訴你是 3%。

I do think that if mass beer was down, I think it's being replaced with cans being used for other alcoholic products. So I think soft drinks perhaps up a little bit more than soft drinks and energy. I'm giving you this off the top of my head because we don't get all data again. But I think soft drinks and energy up more than alcohol as the other flavored alcohol drinks offset the decline in mass beer.

我確實認為，如果大眾啤酒銷量下降，我認為它將被用於其他酒精產品的罐裝啤酒所取代。所以我認為軟性飲料可能比軟性飲料和能量飲料的漲幅要大一些。我臨時給你這個訊息，因為我們沒有再次獲得所有數據。但我認為軟性飲料和能量飲料的銷量比酒精飲料的銷量更高，因為其他口味的酒精飲料抵消了大眾啤酒銷量的下降。

Great, thank you. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over

太好了，謝謝。這非常有幫助。我會把它翻過來

Jeff Zekauskas, JP Morgan.

摩根大通 (JP Morgan) 的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Thanks very much. If you were one of your customers, would you build inventories in the United States given the raw material patterns?

非常感謝。如果您是您的客戶之一，考慮到原材料模式，您會在美國建立庫存嗎？

On the beverage cans side, absolutely not. They've managed to optimize their supply chain to where we deliver just in time, and they fill, and they deliver just in time to the retail, and I don't know why they would build unless they have already designs on mass promotions which can only be done at lower prices. I don't see why they would do that. I think they cans are available.

從飲料罐方面來看，絕對不是。他們已經成功優化了他們的供應鏈，我們能夠及時交貨，他們也能夠及時將貨物送到零售商那裡，我不知道他們為什麼要建造這個工廠，除非他們已經設計好了只能以較低價格進行的大規模促銷。我不明白他們為什麼要這麼做。我認為這些罐子是可用的。

Listen, the supply chain may get tight, but generally what that means when supply gets tight is that customers that are under contract get cans. Customers that are not under contract, they struggle to get cans. So I don't think you'll see that in beverage.

聽著，供應鏈可能會變得緊張，但一般來說，當供應緊張時，這意味著簽訂合約的客戶會得到罐頭。對於沒有簽訂合約的客戶來說，他們很難獲得罐頭。所以我認為你不會在飲料中看到這種情況。

And on the food side, they might take some cans in early, but they typically take cans early all year anyway because that's how we have to make them because they feel so much more during the pack season than is able to be produced during the pack season.

在食物方面，他們可能會提早收一些罐頭，但他們通常全年都會提早收罐頭，因為這就是我們必須生產它們的方式，因為它們在包裝季節的感覺比包裝季節能夠生產的要多得多。

Your margins were very strong in the first quarter. Were they unrepresentatively high, that is, were there positive, price raw material variances that might have been temporary, or is this something which could be a steady state for the year?

你們第一季的利潤率非常高。它們是否高得不具代表性，也就是說，是否存在正的原物料價格差異，這可能是暫時的，還是這可能是全年的穩定狀態？

Well, I'll take the North American food business to start and I'll come back to beverage. So, in North American food last year, we had a metal repricing headwinds, probably of $8 million to $10 million that we did not face this year. It was basically benign. It was 0. The pricing environment was flat so that year on year, that's a tailwind just because of the cost we had last year that we didn't experience this year.

好吧，我將從北美食品業務開始，然後再回到飲料業務。因此，去年在北美食品領域，我們遇到了金屬重新定價的阻力，大概是 800 萬到 1000 萬美元，而今年我們並沒有遇到這樣的阻力。它基本上是良性的。是 0。定價環境持平，因此與去年相比，這是一個順風，因為我們去年的成本是今年沒有遇到的。

So you would argue that if you're in a flat environment going forward, all things being equal that we don't have a plus or a minus going forward next year, and that from that on the beverage can side. Listen, I think we passed through, we passed through a lot unrepresentatively high.

因此，您可能會爭辯說，如果未來環境平穩，所有條件相同，那麼明年我們不會有正數或負數，從飲料罐方面來看也是如此。聽著，我認為我們經歷了，我們經歷了很多不具代表性的高點。

I hope the answer to that is no, but you're always concerned that especially you sometimes become concerned if your margins are higher than others. Do they have incentive to try to get to your margin level or they have incentive to try to drag you down?

我希望答案是否定的，但你總是擔心，特別是當你的利潤率高於其他人時，你有時會擔心。他們是否有動力去嘗試達到您的利潤水平，或者他們是否有動力去嘗試拖累您？

And I will say that the margins expanded in Q1 and they expanded in an environment where the aluminium was higher, so we're passing through higher aluminum and at the same time we generated higher margins. You typically see higher margins when we're passing through lower aluminum costs, so.

我想說的是，第一季的利潤率有所擴大，而且是在鋁價上漲的環境下擴大的，因此，我們正在經歷鋁價上漲，同時我們的利潤率也更高。當我們降低鋁成本時，通常會看到更高的利潤率。

You listen, the plants are running full. We've run a lot of inventory because we expect a strong summer selling season. So utilization is high, profit and inventory is quite high, and we're running well. I hate to say it's too high because I could have told you it was too high last year.

你聽，植物們都旺盛生長著。由於我們預計夏季銷售旺季將來臨，因此我們儲存了大量庫存。因此利用率很高，利潤和庫存也相當高，而且我們運作良好。我不想說它太高了，因為我可以告訴你去年它就太高了。

And just in the America's beverage business, we're almost 250 basis points higher than we were in Q1 last year, and Q1 last year, I'll bet you it was 100 or 200 basis points higher than it was in '23. So it's a, Jeff, it's a good question. It's just one of those questions you hate to answer because you never know how high you can go if you don't keep pushing and we're pushing.

光是在美國飲料業務中，我們的業績就比去年第一季高出近 250 個基點，而我敢打賭，去年第一季的業績比 23 年高出 100 或 200 個基點。所以，傑夫，這是一個很好的問題。這只是那些你不願意回答的問題之一，因為如果你不繼續努力，你永遠不知道你能走多遠，而我們正在努力。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Edlain Rodriguez, Mizuho

羅德里格斯（Edlain Rodriguez），瑞穗

Thank you and good morning, everyone. I mean, Tim, like the other segment, of course driven by food camps has been bounded, very strongly. How should we think of that of income in that segment going forward? Should we think of that $25 million to $30 million as like a good run rate for the rest of the year?

謝謝大家，早安。我的意思是，提姆，就像其他部分一樣，當然受食品營的推動，已經受到了非常強烈的限制。我們該如何看待該部分未來的收入？我們是否應該認為這 2500 萬到 3000 萬美元是今年剩餘時間的良好運行率？

Well, I think if I wanted to give you a number, Edlain, I'd tell you to think about $100 million for this year. So why don't we don't we do that, and I think we'll see, we expect to see some growth in Q2 versus Q2 last year, and we'll see how the balance of the year plays out.

好吧，艾德萊恩，如果我想給你一個數字，我會讓你想想今年是 1 億美元。那我們為什麼不這麼做呢？我想我們會看到，我們預計第二季與去年第二季相比會有所成長，我們將看看今年的平衡。

So much of that business is tied to the food can pack in the third quarter that it's sometimes hard to tell you how Q3 is going to go until we know how well the crops come in and the business is a little bit less cyclical or seasonal, I should say seasonal than it used to be only because pet foods are more stable than seasonal, and pet foods are an increasingly bigger part of that business. But think about $100 million for the year.

由於大部分業務都與第三季度的食品罐頭包裝息息相關，因此有時很難預測第三季度的進展情況，直到我們知道農作物的收成情況以及業務的周期性或季節性有所減弱，我應該說季節性比以前更強，因為寵物食品比季節性更穩定，而且寵物食品在該業務中所佔的比例越來越大。但想想一年要花 1 億美元。

Okay, makes sense. And one last one. I think in the prior answer, you kind of said like if you look at the second half versus like last year if you do the same, you'll be at the high end of the of your guide. What would have to happen for you to be below last year's second half? I mean like can you see anything out there that could prevent you from exceeding or at least mid the second half of last year?

好的，有道理。最後一個。我認為在之前的回答中，您說過，如果您看一下下半年，與去年相比，如果您做同樣的事情，您將處於指南的高端。什麼情況會導致您的業績低於去年下半年？我的意思是，您能否看到有什麼因素可以阻止您超過或至少達到去年下半年中期的水平？

Well, a lot of things that can happen, right? I mean, you want to ask a CEO what can go wrong. I spent my whole life worrying about what can go wrong. I don't mean to say it that way, but if you don't run a business that way, then you're taking your eye off the ball. But listen, I think that let's talk about what could go wrong and why we think the range we've given you is achievable and the opportunity for the high end of the range is also achievable.

嗯，很多事情都可能發生，對吧？我的意思是，你想問執行長什麼地方可能出錯。我一生都在擔心會發生什麼錯誤。我並不是這個意思，但如果你不這樣經營企業，那你就是在分心。但是聽著，我認為我們應該討論一下哪些地方可能出錯，以及為什麼我們認為我們給您的範圍是可以實現的，並且高端範圍的機會也是可以實現的。

We talked about earlier that indirect tariff exposure on the beverage can side, in our view, largely, only exposed in markets like Southeast Asia and or Mexico where the economies are a little bit more fragile, disposable income not as great as it as it is in North America and Europe for consumers. Now we'll see how that goes, but you're not talking about huge numbers here, right?

我們之前談到，飲料罐方面的間接關稅風險，在我們看來，主要只在東南亞和墨西哥等市場存在，這些市場的經濟比較脆弱，消費者的可支配收入不如北美和歐洲那麼高。現在我們來看看情況如何，但你在這裡談論的不是巨大的數字，對嗎？

People are still going to consume. And then the other, if the summer selling season does not turn out to be as robust as I've indicated, our confidence to be in North America and Europe, it could drag you down a few cents. But boy, it really feels like both regions are going to be strong just as we sit here today at the end of April.

人們仍然會消費。另一方面，如果夏季銷售季沒有像我所說的那麼強勁，我們對北美和歐洲的信心可能會下降幾美分。但是，就在四月底的今天，我們坐在這裡，真的感覺這兩個地區都會變得強大。

And then lastly, we tried to be very mindful and I don't know if we've been overly cautious or not as cautious as we should have been with respect to direct and indirect tariffs on our transit business, but we put a number out there. And it could be too high of a number, or it could be too little of a number, but we'll see how the rest of the year goes.

最後，我們盡量保持謹慎，我不知道我們是否過於謹慎，或者在運輸業務的直接和間接關稅方面不夠謹慎，但我們給了一個數字。這個數字可能太高，也可能太低，但我們會看看今年剩餘時間的情況如何。

We think we've given you a range. We do think the higher end of the range is achievable, but we're going to see how the balance of the year plays out. We're going to see how tariffs play out, and we're going to see how consumer demand plays out into our strong selling season. But let's not forget, we have a lot of cans. We and the rest of the members of the industry need to sell over the next five months.

我們認為我們已經給了你一個範圍。我們確實認為該範圍的較高端是可以實現的，但我們將觀察今年的平衡情況如何。我們將觀察關稅如何發揮作用，我們將觀察消費者需求如何在我們的強勁銷售季節中發揮作用。但別忘了，我們還有很多罐頭。我們和該行業的其他成員需要在未來五個月內進行銷售。

No, makes sense. Good caller. Thank you.

不，有道理。好的來電者。謝謝。

Okay, are we going to take one more, we'll take one more question, please?

好的，我們再回答一個問題好嗎？

Gabe Hajde, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Gabe Hajde，富國證券有限責任公司

Good morning.

早安.

Good Morning Gabe.

早上好，加布。

I'm going to try to ask for a third time, maybe specifically sort of what you know and feel like you have under your belt appreciating like you said, second half, a lot can happen. The sequential EPS increase of $0.13 to $0.23 and the Q2, I think in Q1, in 2023, it was like $0.48, in 2024 it was $0.79.

我將嘗試第三次詢問，也許具體詢問您所了​​解的內容以及您感覺自己已經掌握的知識，就像您所說的那樣，後半部分，很多事情都可能發生。每股收益連續成長 0.13 美元至 0.23 美元，第二季度，我認為在 2023 年第一季度，每股收益為 0.48 美元，2024 年為 0.79 美元。

Seems pretty small, the leap, and so, to the extent you're willing to the bridge on America's EBIT improvement, volume maybe productivity improvements, anything like that we should be mindful of as we think about the second quarter.

看起來這個飛躍相當小，所以，就你願意在美國息稅前利潤改善、產量或許是生產率提高等方面進行努力而言，當我們考慮第二季度時，我們應該留意任何類似的事情。

Listen, I think, I think I'm probably not prepared to do that because there's too many people listening, but what I tell you, it all comes down to volume as we get through the summer, right? We're not only looking to sell cans, we're looking to rebuild the inventory and keep utilization rates real high.

聽著，我想，我想我可能還沒準備好這樣做，因為聽的人太多了，但我告訴你，隨著我們度過夏天，一切都取決於音量，對吧？我們不僅希望銷售罐頭，還希望重建庫存並保持較高的利用率。

The easiest way to rebuild inventory is if your customers take cans, so your sales are high and you have to rebuild the inventory for the next quarter, and it all comes down to customer pull.

重建庫存最簡單的方法是，如果您的客戶拿走罐頭，那麼您的銷售額就會很高，您必須為下一季重建庫存，而這一切都取決於客戶的拉動。

Okay. I have two last ones. I'll try to squeeze them in quick. When there's consolidation with your customers, can you talk about how long it may take to bring that new customer on to maybe your contracts and things like that, and do you typically get the benefit of those incremental cans in like the acquisition year or does it take a little bit to flow through?

好的。我還有最後兩個。我會盡力盡快把它們擠進去。當您與客戶進行整合時，您能否談談需要多長時間才能讓新客戶加入您的合約等，您通常會在收購年等獲得這些增量罐的好處嗎？還是需要一點時間流通？

And then on the cash flow side, is there a specific working capital assumption built in there, Kevin? Are plants more expensive to build or lines more expensive to add versus even two, three years ago and Q1 CapEx $33 million, I'm assuming timing, but anything in there that we should be mindful of?

然後在現金流方面，是否存在一個具體的營運資本假設，凱文？與兩三年前相比，建造工廠的成本是否更高，或者增加生產線的成本是否更高，第一季的資本支出為 3300 萬美元，我假設時間是這樣的，但其中有什麼我們應該注意的嗎？

Well, a lot of questions there. Let's try to remember them all, so. Capital, I think that, largely timing game we're running flat out. It's hard to tell the plants to dedicate resources to another area, the factory for needs for new capital.

嗯，有很多問題。讓我們試著記住它們。資本，我認為，很大程度上，我們正​​在全力以赴地進行時間遊戲。很難告訴工廠將資源投入另一個領域，即工廠需要新資本。

We're just, we're running flat out right now in the big markets and but largely timing. I think we'll start to spend more money as we go through the year. Kevin, you want to take the working capital and then Gabe will reminded me of the first question because I forgot.

我們只是，我們現在正在大市場上全力以赴，但主要是時機問題。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會開始花更多的錢。凱文，你想拿營運資金，然後加布會提醒我第一個問題，因為我忘了。

Yeah, working capital is going to run somewhere, call it $75 million dollar outflow this year.

是的，營運資金將會流向某個地方，今年的流出金額為 7,500 萬美元。

So yeah, they, and part of that question was our plants more expensive to build? Absolutely. I mean, I'll just give you, numbers, what we might have envisioned the all-in cost of a new two-line can plant building and equipment. If it used to be $170 million it might be over $250 million now or more.

是的，他們提出的問題之一是我們的工廠建造成本更高嗎？絕對地。我的意思是，我只會給你一些數字，也就是我們預想的新建雙線罐頭廠的建造和設備的全部成本。如果以前是 1.7 億美元，那麼現在可能已經超過 2.5 億美元甚至更多。

So yes, much more expensive construction steel, labor, all kinds of things permitting, all kinds of things. You had a first question that I've forgotten. I apologize. Please ask again.

所以是的，建築鋼材、勞力、各種許可證等等都要貴得多。您問的第一個問題我已經忘記了。我很抱歉。請再詢問一下。

Consolidation with your customers you typically see the impact of that.

透過與客戶進行整合，您通常會看到其影響。

I think the you ask a question and the answer is all of the above. It really depends on what commitments the acquired or the target business has had with it with its suppliers. And it may depend on the contracts that the acquiring company has with its suppliers. So I'd say all of the above, but If we're already supplying the target, then we have the artwork.

我認為您提出的問題和答案都是以上所述。這實際上取決於被收購企業或目標企業對其供應商所做的承諾。這可能取決於收購公司與其供應商簽訂的合約。所以我想說以上所有，但如果我們已經提供了目標，那麼我們就有藝術品。

If we're not supplying the target, it doesn't take very long to get the artwork and then get qualified at that new customer. So I, the answer is all of the above.

如果我們不提供目標，那麼獲取藝術品並獲得新客戶的認可並不需要很長時間。所以，我的答案是以上所有。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Gabe.

謝謝你，加布。

Thank you. Well, I think that was the last question. Thank you very much and that will conclude the call. We thank all of you for joining us and we look forward to speaking with you again in July. Bye now.

謝謝。嗯，我認為這是最後一個問題。非常感謝，本次通話到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與，並期待七月再次與你們交談。再見了。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you everyone for joining. You may disconnect and have a great day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您可以斷開連接並度過美好的一天。