Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Crown Holdings Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加皇冠控股 2023 年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，此通話正在錄音。現在我想將電話轉給東道主高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Jackie, and good morning, everyone. With me today -- with me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you do not already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including in our Form 10-K for 2022 and subsequent filings.

謝謝你，傑基，大家早上好。今天和我一起參加今天電話會議的是總裁兼首席執行官蒂姆·多納休 (Tim Donahue)。如果您還沒有收益發布，可以在我們的網站 Crowncork.com 上獲取。在這次電話會議上，就像在財報發布中一樣，我們將做出一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與此類聲明存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果發生變化的因素的更多信息包含在新聞稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中，包括我們 2022 年的 10-K 表格及後續文件中。

Second quarter diluted earnings were $1.31 a share compared to $2.43 in the prior year second quarter, which included $0.60 per share net from the sale of our Kiwi business. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.68 per share in the quarter compared to $2.10 in 2022. Net sales in the quarter were down 11% from the prior year, reflecting higher sales unit volumes in Americas Beverage offset by the pass-through of approximately $300 million of lower raw material costs, lower unit volumes in most other businesses and $25 million from the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar.

第二季度稀釋後每股收益為 1.31 美元，而去年第二季度為 2.43 美元，其中包括出售新西蘭業務的每股淨收益 0.60 美元。本季度調整後每股收益為 1.68 美元，而 2022 年為 2.10 美元。本季度淨銷售額較上年同期下降 11%，反映出美洲飲料銷量增加，但被約 3 億美元的轉嫁金所抵消。原材料成本下降，大多數其他業務的單位銷量下降，美元走強的影響減少了 2500 萬美元。

Segment income at $414 million in the quarter compared to $432 million in the prior year and reflects the benefit from contractual recovery of prior year inflationary cost increases in European beverage and cost reduction initiatives in transit packaging, offset by lower overall net volumes.

本季度的部門收入為 4.14 億美元，而上一年為 4.32 億美元，反映了上一年歐洲飲料通脹成本增加的合同回收以及運輸包裝成本削減舉措帶來的收益，但被總體淨銷量下降所抵消。

Operating cash flow was $293 million for the 6 months of '23 compared to $196 million in the prior year. The operating cash flow at this point of the year was the highest in the last 10 years and the approximate $100 million improvement in operating cash flow reflects our efforts to reduce elevated inventory levels from year-end. The results in the second quarter were as expected. We expect third quarter adjusted EPS to be in the range of $1.70 to $1.80 per share. We expect full year EBITDA to grow between 8% and 12%. We expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.30 per share with higher transactional foreign exchange expense and lower equity earnings being the difference from our previous guidance.

2023 年 6 個月的運營現金流為 2.93 億美元，而去年同期為 1.96 億美元。今年此時的運營現金流量是過去 10 年來最高的，運營現金流量改善了約 1 億美元，這反映了我們為從年底開始降低高庫存水平所做的努力。第二季度業績符合預期。我們預計第三季度調整後每股收益將在 1.70 美元至 1.80 美元之間。我們預計全年 EBITDA 將增長 8% 至 12%。我們預計全年調整後每股收益將在每股 6.10 美元至 6.30 美元之間，交易外匯費用較高，股本收益較低，這與我們之前的指導存在差異。

Our full year adjusted earnings include the following, which is in line with our previous guidance. Net interest expense of $400 million in 2023 compared to $270 million in 2022, a $0.40 of incremental noncash pension and postretirement costs, average common shares outstanding to be approximately 120 million and the full year tax rate to be between 24% and 25%. Depreciation of approximately $345 million compared to $301 million in 2022. Noncontrolling interest expense to be approximately $135 million and dividends to noncontrolling interest of approximately $120 million. Free cash flow is projected to be $500 million with capital spending of $900 million. We expect the majority of our free cash flow to go to debt reduction until we get within our targeted leverage ratio range of 3 to 3.5x levered.

我們的全年調整後收益包括以下內容，這與我們之前的指導一致。 2023 年淨利息支出為 4 億美元，而 2022 年為 2.7 億美元，非現金養老金和退休後成本增量為 0.40 美元，平均已發行普通股約為 1.2 億股，全年稅率為 24% 至 25%。折舊約為 3.45 億美元，而 2022 年為 3.01 億美元。非控股權益費用約為 1.35 億美元，非控股權益股息約為 1.2 億美元。自由現金流預計為 5 億美元，資本支出為 9 億美元。我們預計我們的大部分自由現金流將用於減少債務，直到我們達到 3 至 3.5 倍槓桿的目標槓桿率範圍內。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

這樣，我會將電話轉給蒂姆。

Kevin, thank you, and good morning to everyone. Trends were similar to the first quarter, so our prepared remarks will be limited before we open the call to questions. As reflected in last night's earnings release and as Kevin just summarized, second quarter performance was in line with expectations. As beverage in the Americas and Europe and transit packaging continue to perform well, offsetting below-the-line foreign exchange losses and lower equity earnings.

凱文，謝謝你，祝大家早上好。趨勢與第一季度相似，因此在我們開始提問之前，我們準備好的言論將受到限制。正如昨晚的財報所反映的那樣，正如凱文剛剛總結的那樣，第二季度的業績符合預期。由於美洲和歐洲的飲料和運輸包裝繼續表現良好，抵消了線下外匯損失和較低的股本收益。

Kevin also briefly noted our efforts to reduce raw and finished beverage inventories from year-end levels. The initial results of which are evident on the cash flow statement. And as important, inventory carrying risk that we experienced in the second half of 2022 has been mitigated this year. In Americas Beverage, unit volume growth was 1.5% in the quarter, with North America up 2.5% and Latin America flat versus the prior year. After a weak April, promotional activity in North America accelerated in May and June, and we remain optimistic about the prospects for improved volumes in the back half of the year.

凱文還簡要介紹了我們為減少年末水平的原料和成品飲料庫存所做的努力。其初步結果在現金流量表上顯而易見。同樣重要的是，我們在 2022 年下半年經歷的庫存持有風險今年已得到緩解。在美洲飲料領域，本季度單位銷量增長 1.5%，其中北美增長 2.5%，拉丁美洲與上年持平。經歷了四月份的疲軟之後，北美地區的促銷活動在五月和六月加速，我們對下半年銷量改善的前景保持樂觀。

And while still very early in the third quarter, volumes to date in July are also strong versus the prior year. Based on customer commentary, we estimate that the North American market was down in the 3% to 5% range for both the second quarter and for the 6-month period. Accordingly, we revised the volume growth assumption for the full year to approximately 7% given the market decline in the first half.

雖然仍處於第三季度初期，但 7 月份迄今為止的銷量也較去年同期強勁。根據客戶評論，我們估計北美市場第二季度和前 6 個月的下跌幅度為 3% 至 5%。因此，鑑於上半年市場下滑，我們將全年銷量增長假設修正至 7% 左右。

Income performance was strong in the quarter with volume growth and the April 1 PPI increases almost fully offsetting Bowling Green insurance recoveries of $20 million in the 2022 second quarter and the impact of lower activity levels designed to bring down inventory levels. Construction on the Mesquite, Nevada facility is nearing completion with commercial startup scheduled for late August. Unit volumes in European Beverage declined 5% in the second quarter, with weakness in Greece, Italy and Spain, offsetting growth in France, Turkey and the U.K. More importantly, we have made significant progress in restoring investment justifying margins to this segment which you will continue to see in second half performance. The construction of the Peterborough plant in the U.K. is nearing completion with commercial shipments expected in August and October from lines 1 and 2, respectively.

本季度收入表現強勁，銷量增長，4 月 1 日 PPI 上漲幾乎完全抵消了 Bowling Green 保險在 2022 年第二季度收回的 2000 萬美元以及旨在降低庫存水平的活動水平降低的影響。內華達州梅斯基特工廠的建設已接近完成，計劃於 8 月底投入商業運行。第二季度歐洲飲料的單位銷量下降了 5%，希臘、意大利和西班牙的疲軟抵消了法國、土耳其和英國的增長。更重要的是，我們在恢復該細分市場的投資合理利潤方面取得了重大進展，您將繼續看下半年表現。英國彼得伯勒工廠的建設已接近尾聲，預計 1 號線和 2 號線分別將於 8 月和 10 月進行商業發貨。

Similar to the first quarter, beverage can volumes in Asia Pacific declined double digits. We did see recovery in Cambodia, but Vietnam remains soft. The cumulative effects of inflation, combined with slowing economies are contributing to lower consumption across Southeast Asia. We do expect second half income performance to improve over the prior year, albeit against easy comps and be weighted more towards the fourth quarter.

與第一季度類似，亞太地區的飲料罐銷量下降了兩位數。我們確實看到了柬埔寨的複蘇，但越南仍然疲軟。通貨膨脹的累積效應加上經濟放緩，導致整個東南亞的消費下降。我們確實預計下半年的收入表現將比去年有所改善，儘管與輕鬆的比較相比，並且對第四季度的權重更大。

Transit Packaging had another solid quarter with income up 20% over the prior year, with margins improving across all product lines as reductions to overheads and SKUs combined with price cost management have more than offset the impact of lower volumes. With 2023 income performance expected to be the highest ever, the business is well positioned to deliver even more as industrial activity improves in future years.

Transit Packaging 的季度收入比上年增長了 20%，所有產品線的利潤率均有所提高，因為管理費用和 SKU 的減少與價格成本管理相結合，足以抵消銷量下降的影響。預計 2023 年的收入表現將達到有史以來的最高水平，隨著未來幾年工業活動的改善，該業務有望實現更多目標。

In summary, performance in the second quarter was on plan, a solid first half with improvement expected in most businesses in the second half leading to significant year-over-year improvement in segment income and EBITDA in the third and fourth quarters.

總而言之，第二季度的業績符合計劃，上半年表現強勁，預計下半年大多數業務將有所改善，從而導致第三和第四季度的部門收入和 EBITDA 同比大幅改善。

Turning to the balance sheet. At the midpoint of the year, leverage is just under 4x. With improved EBITDA expected in the second half, again, against easy year-over-year comps, we expect to close 2023 leverage well within our stated range of 3 to 3.5x. And just before we open the call, we ask that you limit yourselves to 2 questions so that as many of you as possible will have an opportunity.

轉向資產負債表。今年年中，槓桿率略低於 4 倍。由於預計下半年 EBITDA 將有所改善，與輕鬆的同比比較相比，我們預計 2023 年的槓桿率將遠在我們規定的 3 至 3.5 倍範圍內。在我們開始通話之前，我們要求您只回答兩個問題，以便盡可能多的人有機會回答。

And with that, Jackie, we are now ready to take questions, please.

傑基，我們現在準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from George Staphos of Bank of America.

（操作員指令）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

This is actually Cashin sitting in for George. We had conflicting calls this morning. So firstly, I guess, why do you expect volumes to ultimately recover here? And I guess, what are your customers telling you right now? And relatedly, is there anything or an underlying trend that worries them or you about the longer-term volume outlook from here?

這實際上是卡辛在代替喬治。今天早上我們接到了相互矛盾的電話。首先，我想，為什麼您預計這裡的成交量最終會恢復？我想，您的客戶現在告訴您什麼？與此相關的是，是否有任何事情或潛在趨勢讓他們或您對這裡的長期銷量前景感到擔憂？

Well, I mean you're -- what region are you just asking the question about and then I'll answer the question. I guess you're talking about North America.

嗯，我的意思是你——你只是問關於哪個地區的問題，然後我會回答這個問題。我猜你說的是北美。

Yes. I guess North America would be helpful. Yes.

是的。我想北美會有所幫助。是的。

Yes. Well, I mean you're saying once volume going to recover. I think for us, we were up 2.5%. The market was down. Listen, I think the April was exceptionally weak. We were down high single digits in April. We were up high single digits in May and June. We're up high single digits already in July. So I think the trend here, we have 3 solid months in a row. I think we're going to continue to see high single digits for the balance of the year. I think as we've described previously, the market -- the customers have a new model right now. The model is they're going to drive value for their constituents with price over volume.

是的。嗯，我的意思是你是說一旦成交量恢復。我認為對我們來說，我們上漲了 2.5%。市場下跌。聽著，我認為四月特別疲軟。 4 月份我們的業績出現了高個位數的下滑。 5 月和 6 月，我們的業績實現了高個位數增長。七月份我們已經實現了高個位數增長。所以我認為這裡的趨勢是，我們已經連續三個月了。我認為今年剩餘時間我們將繼續看到高個位數的增長。我認為正如我們之前所描述的，市場——客戶現在有一個新的模式。該模型是他們將通過價格超過數量來為其選民帶來價值。

And it seems to be working for them. We don't control how they manage their business, nor should we really tell them how to manage their business. But they're all doing quite well. And listen, we can't complain. We're up and we're going to continue to be up even more in the back half of the year. I'm not sure it's a -- I'm not sure being down 3% to 5% is the new normal in the business. I think you're going to see a flatter overall market in the second half of the year, and as I said, will be up.

這似乎對他們有用。我們無法控制他們如何管理他們的業務，我們也不應該真正告訴他們如何管理他們的業務。但他們都做得很好。聽著，我們不能抱怨。我們已經上漲了，並且在今年下半年我們將繼續上漲。我不確定下降 3% 到 5% 是否是行業的新常態。我認為下半年整體市場將會更加平坦，正如我所說，將會上漲。

Got it. And just secondly, could you review just what your profit target is there for this year and for '24. Are you guys still on track to get back to 2021 levels in Europe by the end of '24?

知道了。其次，您能否回顧一下今年和 24 年的利潤目標。你們是否仍有望在 24 年底前將歐洲恢復到 2021 年的水平？

Yes. So as we said last year, I mean as we said a few calls ago, we thought we'd be 50% of the way back to 2024 this year. I think what we said on the last call is we'd be 75% of the way back this year. I think if you were to look at 6 months to date here in June 2023, it's probably very close to 2021 levels through 6 months even with currency a touch weaker than where we were a couple of years ago. So we're well on our way back to 2021 levels this year. So I think the trend is in the performance to date, and we feel really good about the second half of the year. We're not coming off of that estimate. We're going to be well on our way back this year, at least 75%. And really, as we sit here today, it's pretty early, but we're pretty confident in getting all the way back, if not even more next year.

是的。正如我們去年所說，我的意思是，正如我們在幾次電話會議前所說的那樣，我們認為今年 2024 年的進度將達到 50%。我認為我們在上次電話會議上所說的是今年我們將實現 75% 的目標。我認為，如果您查看 2023 年 6 月至今的 6 個月，您會發現這 6 個月內的水平可能非常接近 2021 年的水平，即使貨幣比幾年前略弱一些。因此，今年我們有望回到 2021 年的水平。所以我認為趨勢體現在迄今為止的表現上，我們對今年下半年的感覺非常好。我們不會放棄這個估計。今年我們將順利回歸，至少達到 75%。事實上，當我們今天坐在這裡時，時間還很早，但我們非常有信心能夠一路回來，甚至明年甚至更多。

Our next question is from Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Can we just dissect the second half in North America, specifically the U.S. volume growth outlook as well? Just in terms of what you're thinking about how your outlook changes with promotional activity in CSD, no promotional activity in CSD as well as the momentum, which I believe you're benefiting from on the energy drink platform as well as some pretty lucrative ready-to-drink ramps. So just any color on how the market should be thinking about your growth target would be very, very helpful.

我們能否剖析一下北美下半年，特別是美國的銷量增長前景？就您而言，您的前景如何隨著 CSD 的促銷活動而變化，CSD 沒有促銷活動以及勢頭，我相信您正在從能量飲料平台以及一些相當有利可圖的平台上受益即飲坡道。因此，任何有關市場應如何考慮您的增長目標的顏色都會非常非常有幫助。

Yes. So I think we're -- the first quarter was a little lighter than we expected, although we didn't have big numbers in the first quarter. April was a big disappointment, as I mentioned. And as I've said, May and June really quite strong and July -- we're only 20 days into it, but July also strong to date. We're looking at the back half of the year, especially with new capacity coming up back half of the year, roughly 10% higher than the back half of last year, which -- if you recall, the back half of last year was also not very strong. So again, we've mentioned against easy comps a few times here.

是的。因此，我認為第一季度的業績比我們預期的要淡一些，儘管第一季度的數據並不多。正如我提到的，四月令人非常失望。正如我所說，5 月和 6 月確實非常強勁，而 7 月——我們才進入 20 天，但 7 月迄今為止也很強勁。我們正在關註今年下半年，特別是今年下半年新增產能，大約比去年下半年高出 10%，如果你還記得的話，去年下半年是也不是很強。再說一遍，我們在這裡多次提到了反對簡單的比賽。

And so that will be one reason. But I think the business well positioned, and I think we are starting to see more promotional activity, specifically around carbonated soft drinks, the teas, energy drinks, some of the other -- I don't want to call them nutraceuticals but enhanced waters, obviously growing rapidly, but on a much smaller bases. The only way you get these volume numbers is through carbonated soft drinks, alcohol to a lesser extent for us because we're not big in alcohol in the United States and then sparkling water. So we are starting to see those promotions perhaps a bit more limited than we'd like to see, but they are making promotions at this point.

這就是原因之一。但我認為業務定位良好，而且我認為我們開始看到更多的促銷活動，特別是圍繞碳酸軟飲料、茶、能量飲料和其他一些飲料——我不想稱它們為營養保健品，而是強化水，顯然增長迅速，但基礎要小得多。獲得這些數量的唯一方法是通過碳酸軟飲料，對我們來說酒精含量較小，因為我們在美國的酒精含量並不高，然後是蘇打水。因此，我們開始看到這些促銷活動可能比我們希望看到的要有限一些，但他們目前正在進行促銷活動。

Got it. And just for my second question, shifting down hemispheres. Could you just talk a little bit more about the Brazilian market? I mean, presumably, there's going to be some easier comps, but at the same time, it still seems like the market is challenging and there are other dynamics, customer dynamics, which you mentioned on your last call, glass recycling trends so on and so forth. Can you just give us the kind of updated thought process on that market how you see it evolving in the second half and probably more importantly, your view of it in the intermediate to long term as we head into '24 and onwards?

知道了。對於我的第二個問題，半球向下移動。您能多談談巴西市場嗎？我的意思是，大概會有一些更容易的比較，但與此同時，市場似乎仍然充滿挑戰，還有其他動態、客戶動態，您在上次通話中提到過，玻璃回收趨勢等等等等。您能否向我們介紹一下該市場的最新思維過程，您如何看待該市場在下半年的演變，或許更重要的是，您對進入 24 世紀及以後的中長期市場的看法？

Listen, I think we've said before, we and others view the Brazilian market very favorably over a medium and long term. We're not going to get overly excited about volume performance in a market in any 1-, 3- or 6-month period. I think if you start looking at periods of time and whether you want to describe those periods of time of 3 to 5 years, any 3- to 5-year period, you lop off and compare, you're going to see significant growth in that market. Obviously, the market is much larger today than it was in the past. So perhaps the growth percentages are not as large, but the volume growth is still as large or larger and remain significant for a beverage can business. In the context of when you need to have capacity to deliver growth of 1 billion or 2 billion units to the market, how many lines it takes and how much equipment it takes.

聽著，我想我們之前已經說過，我們和其他人對巴西市場的中長期前景非常看好。我們不會對任何 1、3 或 6 個月期間市場的成交量表現過於興奮。我認為，如果你開始研究一段時間，無論你是否想要描述 3 到 5 年的時間段，任何 3 到 5 年的時間段，你都會停下來進行比較，你會看到顯著的增長那個市場。顯然，今天的市場比過去大得多。因此，也許增長率沒有那麼大，但銷量增長仍然一樣大或更大，並且對於飲料罐業務來說仍然很重要。當您需要有能力向市場提供 10 億或 20 億台的增長時，需要多少條生產線以及需要多少設備。

So I do think, again, the back half of the year, comps are a little easier in Brazil as we look at the back half of this year compared to last year. But I don't think there's anything we're seeing. I think Brazil was up a little bit in the second quarter. We were up tremendously in the first quarter, although the first quarter of '22, again, was very weak, but up tremendously in the first quarter, up a little bit about 0.75% here in the second quarter, and I think we're expecting a fairly strong performance in Q4 as they go into their carnival season.

因此，我確實認為今年下半年巴西的比賽會比去年容易一些。但我認為我們沒有看到任何東西。我認為巴西在第二季度有所上升。我們在第一季度取得了巨大的進步，儘管 22 年第一季度再次非常疲弱，但在第一季度取得了巨大的進步，在第二季度上漲了約 0.75%，我認為我們正在隨著他們進入狂歡季，預計第四季度會有相當強勁的表現。

So I think the customer situation we described in Q1, the customer is in the bankruptcy process, for one of a better term, their workout process. They are pulling cans, they're delivering cans. Their volumes are fairly strong right now. They're paying for those cans in a relatively short period of time. And I don't think they've ceded any market share in the near term. So we're very positive on Brazil right now.

因此，我認為我們在第一季度描述的客戶情況是，客戶正處於破產過程中，或者更好的說法是，他們的鍛煉過程。他們在拉罐頭，他們在運送罐頭。他們的交易量目前相當強勁。他們在相對較短的時間內支付了這些罐頭的費用。我認為他們在短期內不會放棄任何市場份額。所以我們現在對巴西非常樂觀。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Mike Leithead with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

First question on Transit Packaging. I think this is one of the best earnings quarter since you've acquired the business, and I assume demand isn't that great so I assume it's mostly cost. So can you just give us some sort of thoughts around what you think this business' earnings potential is now? Or just kind of how much operating leverage it should have to a volume or economic improvement?

關於運輸包裝的第一個問題。我認為這是自收購該業務以來最好的盈利季度之一，而且我認為需求不是那麼大，所以我認為主要是成本。那麼您能否給我們一些關於您認為該業務目前盈利潛力的想法？或者只是應該對銷量或經濟改善擁有多少運營槓桿？

That's a good question. I -- listen, I think if we look at volume in the second quarter, probably down on the order of 12% or 13%. Now you got to understand that the business is very diverse. So some of the commodity lines might be down 15%. Tooling was flattish in the quarter and tooling -- you make more money in tooling than you make in the commodity lines. But -- and as I said in the first quarter, think about 1/3 of that volume decline being us walking away from customers and/or SKUs, which were not very pro. In fact, the business we walked away from had no impact on profitability.

這是個好問題。我——聽著，我想如果我們看看第二季度的銷量，可能會下降 12% 或 13% 左右。現在您必須了解業務非常多樣化。因此，某些商品系列可能會下跌 15%。模具在本季度表現平平——模具行業賺的錢比商品線賺的錢多。但是，正如我在第一季度所說，銷量下降的 1/3 是因為我們放棄了客戶和/或 SKU，而這些並不是很專業。事實上，我們放棄的業務對盈利能力沒有影響。

So we've simplified the business and done some other things around the cost structure by walking away from unprofitable lines. And as you rightly point out, profit growth in the quarter and year-to-date and as expected for the balance of the year, largely around cost, but also around good price cost management on how we're recovering indexed hot-rolled steel and also paper. So the team doing a very good job.

因此，我們簡化了業務，並圍繞成本結構做了一些其他事情，放棄了無利可圖的業務。正如您正確指出的那樣，本季度和年初至今的利潤增長以及今年剩餘時間的預期，主要圍繞成本，但也圍繞我們如何恢復指數化熱軋鋼材的良好價格成本管理還有紙。所以團隊做得非常好。

Now with respect to the future, what is the leverage of the business as industrial activity returns, we -- I'm not going to sit here and make a prediction, but I do think the cost structure of the business and the way the new management team is managing the business gives us far greater confidence then we do have that leverage. And if we were to think about 5% or 10% volume growth with industrial activity returning there's no reason to believe that, that doesn't all fall to the bottom line, but I'm not prepared to step out and give you a huge number at this point. That's just -- I don't think that will be appropriate right now. But I -- but we agree with you, there is leverage in the business as you look forward.

現在就未來而言，隨著工業活動的回歸，業務的槓桿作用是什麼，我們——我不會坐在這裡做出預測，但我確實認為業務的成本結構以及新的方式管理團隊管理業務給了我們比我們擁有的槓桿更大的信心。如果我們考慮隨著工業活動的恢復而實現 5% 或 10% 的銷量增長，就沒有理由相信這一點，這並沒有全部落入底線，但我不准備走出去給你一個巨大的此時的編號。只是——我認為現在不合適。但我——但我們同意你的觀點，正如你所期待的那樣，業務中存在槓桿作用。

Fair enough. And then second, Tim, just in the release, you talked about using increased cash flow next year to pay down some debt and return back to shareholders. Could you maybe just give us a bit more of your updated thoughts on where you think leverage ends this year and just where you still want to get to into next year?

很公平。其次，蒂姆，就在新聞稿中，您談到了明年使用增加的現金流來償還一些債務並回報股東。您能否向我們提供更多關於您認為今年槓桿率將達到什麼水平以及明年您仍希望達到什麼水平的最新想法？

So I think we'll -- as I said, we'll be well within the range. If you want a much closer number. I'd say we're -- depending on where the euro finishes the year because we do have euro debt and that translates the debt a little bit, think about we'll end this year about 3.2, 3.25x. I think that's pretty -- we feel pretty safe in saying that as we sit here today. We've always described our range as 3 to 3.5. I think we've said it in the last couple of calls, just given where the financing markets are and the cost of debt, we probably would feel more comfortable, and we have heard from some of our larger shareholders who would also feel more comfortable if we were at the lower end of that range or even slightly below the lower end of our range before we begin to return cash -- excess cash to shareholders.

所以我認為我們會——正如我所說，我們會完全在這個範圍內。如果你想要一個更接近的數字。我想說，我們 - 取決於歐元今年結束時的情況，因為我們確實有歐元債務，這會稍微轉化債務，想想我們今年結束時的增長率約為 3.2 至 3.25 倍。我認為這很好——當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們感到很安全。我們總是將我們的範圍描述為 3 到 3.5。我想我們在過去幾次電話會議中已經說過了，考慮到融資市場的情況和債務成本，我們可能會感到更舒服，而且我們從一些大股東那裡聽到了他們也會感覺更舒服如果在我們開始向股東返還現金之前，我們處於該範圍的下限，甚至略低於該範圍的下限，那就是多餘的現金。

Now having said that, next year, capital expenditures, no doubt will be far lower than they are this year and free cash flow should be higher. And so we should be able to achieve both of those. That is bringing the leverage down to 3 or even slightly below 3 and contemplating returning the excess to shareholders at that point. But as I said on the last call, just given where borrowing rates are today, the differential in value accretion to shareholders between paying down debt and buying back stock is far narrower today than it has been over the last several years.

話雖如此，明年的資本支出無疑將遠低於今年，而自由現金流應該會更高。所以我們應該能夠實現這兩點。這會將槓桿率降至 3 甚至略低於 3，並考慮屆時將多餘的部分返還給股東。但正如我在上次電話會議上所說，考慮到目前的借貸利率，償還債務和回購股票之間為股東帶來的價值增值的差異現在比過去幾年要小得多。

Jackie, do we have any more questions? Have we lost the operator, Tom. Give us a moment, we'll see if we can find the operator for you.

傑基，我們還有什麼問題嗎？我們失去接線員了嗎，湯姆？請給我們一點時間，我們看看能否為您找到接線員。

Our next question is from Michael Roxland from Truist Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Michael Roxland。

Last call, you said you expected to see some type of recovery in Vietnam, in 2Q and 3Q as well. I guess what's been driving the persistent weakness there?

上次通話時，您表示預計越南在第二季度和第三季度也會出現某種形式的複蘇。我想是什麼導致了那裡持續疲軟？

I think the economy has slowed tremendously there. I think if they had estimated GDP or -- let me say it this way, GDP over the last several years has been running between 7% and 10%, and the rest of it this year was for 6% or 7%, they're probably now estimating GDP in Vietnam closer to 1% and a very stretched consumer. The introduction of some very strict drunk driving laws and -- so I think our customers are trying to understand how they're going to deal with some of the changing dynamics in that marketplace. It will come back. It's just -- they've got some excess inventory -- excess field inventory that they carried over from Chinese New Year that didn't get fully absorbed in the February, March time frame, and they're working through it. But again, it's a big market. It's a growing market. And as I've said, when we talk about Brazil, we don't tend to get overly excited about investments we make in a market that we think has great future potential when there are volume disruptions in any 3- or 6-month period.

我認為那裡的經濟已經大幅放緩。我想如果他們估計了GDP，或者——讓我這樣說，過去幾年的GDP一直在7%到10%之間運行，而今年剩下的部分是6%或7%，他們’我們現在估計越南的 GDP 接近 1%，而且消費者的壓力非常大。引入了一些非常嚴格的酒後駕駛法律，所以我認為我們的客戶正在嘗試了解他們將如何應對該市場中的一些不斷變化的動態。它會回來的。只是——他們有一些過剩的庫存——他們從農曆新年結轉的過剩現場庫存在二月、三月的時間範圍內沒有得到完全吸收，他們正在解決這個問題。但話又說回來，這是一個很大的市場。這是一個不斷增長的市場。正如我所說，當我們談論巴西時，當任何 3 或 6 個月期間出現數量中斷時，我們不會對我們在一個我們認為具有巨大未來潛力的市場進行的投資感到過度興奮。

Got it. And then just quickly, I think in last call you also mentioned you're seeing some customers defer or trying to defer purchase of cans is closer to the summer and to better manage their working capital and to try to minimize their own interest costs. Has there been any improvement on that? That was referencing obviously, I think the U.K. Has there been any improvement in that?

知道了。然後很快，我想在上次電話中您也提到您看到一些客戶推遲或試圖推遲購買罐頭，因為臨近夏季，以便更好地管理他們的營運資金並儘量減少自己的利息成本。對此有什麼改進嗎？這顯然是指，我認為英國在這方面有任何改進嗎？

So I think the reference there was Europe specifically or Europe in general, the U.K. specifically, you're right, a little bit of improvement in the U.K., but I think what I would say is that we've been exceptionally focused on improving margins in that region, and we are not chasing volume at lower margins. And that's probably how I should say it and leave it at that.

因此，我認為參考的是歐洲或整個歐洲，特別是英國，你是對的，英國略有改善，但我想我想說的是，我們一直特別注重提高利潤率在該地區，我們並不追求較低利潤的銷量。我大概應該這樣說，然後就這樣吧。

Our next question is from Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

Could you perhaps going back to the promotional question in North America, just sort of frame the level of activity you're seeing now versus maybe last year? And what's typical, just given the warmer months, et cetera, relative to the history. I'm just trying to get a sense as to how sensitive your earnings outlook for the back half of the year would be to the expectation that promotional activity would be higher. What's the best way for us to think about that?

您能否回到北美的促銷問題，將您現在看到的活動水平與去年相比進行一下比較？相對於歷史而言，考慮到溫暖的月份等等，這是典型的。我只是想了解一下您今年下半年的盈利前景對促銷活動將會增加的預期有多敏感。我們思考這個問題的最佳方式是什麼？

That's a good question. Let me -- I'll answer the last part of that question last because I'm going to try to think while I'm talking, which is always dangerous. As we've described before and Ghansham, you know this very well, you've covered the industry for a very long time. Promotional activity in -- specifically in carbonated soft drinks, for the last 20 years, centered on the, let's call it, the March to August, September time frame and discounting ranging from 12 packs being offered at 4 for $10 or 5 for $10. Till last year, they almost didn't promote at all, and they were charging $9 for a 12-pack and third and fourth quarter last year, almost no promotions whatsoever.

這是個好問題。讓我——我將最後回答這個問題的最後一部分，因為我會在說話時嘗試思考，這總是很危險的。正如我們之前和 Ghansham 所描述的，您非常了解這一點，您已經報導該行業很長時間了。過去 20 年的促銷活動，特別是碳酸軟飲料，主要集中在 3 月至 8 月、9 月期間，折扣範圍從 12 包 4 包 10 美元或 5 包 10 美元不等。直到去年，他們幾乎沒有任何促銷活動，12 件裝的售價為 9 美元，去年第三和第四季度，幾乎沒有任何促銷活動。

This year, the promotions we're seeing are buy 1 get 1 on some of the sparkling water brands. So think about sparkling water being offered at $6 a 12-pack so you're getting 2 for $6, which is like a $3 12-pack, that's not awful. On the carbonated soft drinks, there's still -- nondiscounted pricing is still running about $8.79 to $9.29 a 12-pack depending on where you are. And they're now offering buy 2 get 1 free. So that's -- that comes out to, what, $6 a 12-pack. So certainly higher than what we've seen historically, how much volume will they drive with that. They're going to drive more volume with that and then if they don't discount but that may be their new model.

今年，我們看到一些氣泡水品牌的促銷活動是買一送一。想像一下，蘇打水每 12 美元一包，價格為 6 美元，所以你可以花 6 美元買到 2 瓶，這就像 3 美元一包的 12 美元一樣，這還不錯。碳酸軟飲料的非折扣價格仍然在 8.79 美元至 9.29 美元/12 包之間，具體取決於你所在的地區。他們現在提供買 2 送 1。所以，結果是，12 件裝 6 美元。因此，他們將帶來多少銷量，這肯定比我們歷史上看到的要高。他們將以此來推動更多銷量，然後如果他們不打折，那可能就是他們的新型號。

Their new model might be that their input costs have been elevated, and they're not prepared to sell product that at lower value. And their hope is probably that the consumer is going to get used to this and the consumer will get used to paying $6 a 12-pack as opposed to $2.50 for 12-pack as they have in the past. And ultimately, volume will return at these higher price points. And so we have to be prepared as well within our system to deal with that. I think that we have seen a lot more consumer activity over the last several months, and we can see that from the amount of cans that our customers are taking.

他們的新模式可能是他們的投入成本已經提高，並且他們不准備以較低的價格銷售產品。他們的希望可能是消費者會習慣這一點，並且習慣於支付 6 美元/12 件裝，而不是像過去那樣支付 2.50 美元/12 件裝。最終，銷量將在這些較高的價格點上恢復。因此，我們必須在系統內做好應對這一問題的準備。我認為過去幾個月我們看到了更多的消費者活動，我們可以從客戶拿走的罐頭數量中看到這一點。

But -- and so as I said, April was really weak. May was mid-single digits. June was high single digits. July, as I said, to date, high single digits. And so we are seeing some activity, and we're seeing customers pull cans. To the point of how sensitive our earnings in the back half of the year is if volume doesn't materialize, if I had to put a band on it. Well, Kevin gave you the range for EBITDA, 8% to 12%. I think we're comfortably in that range right now with our forecast. I think if the volume did not materialize, we'd be at the lower end of that range. That's probably the easiest way to say that. And that's a pretty big number. Maybe it's too big of a number to come down, but still within the range.

但是——正如我所說，四月真的很弱。五月為中個位數。六月份的數字高達個位數。正如我所說，迄今為止，七月的數字很高。所以我們看到了一些活動，我們看到顧客拉罐子。如果銷量沒有實現，如果我不得不對其施加限制的話，那麼我們下半年的收益有多敏感。嗯，凱文給了你 EBITDA 的範圍，8% 到 12%。我認為我們的預測目前處於這個範圍內。我認為，如果銷量沒有實現，我們將處於該範圍的下限。這可能是最簡單的說法。這是一個相當大的數字。也許這個數字太大了，無法降低，但仍在範圍之內。

Okay. Perfect. That's helpful. And then if we switch to Europe, I mean there's a ton of indications that European consumer spending has weakened sequentially and so on this year in particular. What's the backdrop in terms of how your customers are responding to that dynamic? And are they making any adjustments as they look out to the back half of the year? I assume tourism is a positive in Europe this summer, but it looks like the core consumer there is very, very weak.

好的。完美的。這很有幫助。然後，如果我們轉向歐洲，我的意思是，有大量跡象表明歐洲消費者支出已連續疲軟，尤其是今年。您的客戶如何應對這種動態的背景是什麼？展望下半年，他們是否會做出任何調整？我認為今年夏天歐洲的旅遊業是積極的，但看起來那裡的核心消費者非常非常疲弱。

Yes, I think there's no doubt, Europe is in recession. You look at some of the purchasing manager indexes for the various countries, and they're well below 50. They're in the 42 to 44 range, which are exceptionally low, and these are some of the bigger economies there. And as you rightly point out, the core consumer, whether it's the U.K., France, exceptionally weak, I don't want to call them poor, but they are stretched just to make ends meet basic food supplies energy. Now having said that, the can is still a relatively economical way to deliver beverages or food or any other product, and the business is holding up well.

是的，我認為毫無疑問，歐洲正處於衰退之中。你看一下不同國家的一些採購經理指數，它們遠低於 50。它們在 42 到 44 的範圍內，這是非常低的，而且這些都是那裡的一些較大的經濟體。正如你正確指出的那樣，核心消費者，無論是英國、法國，都異常疲軟，我不想稱他們為窮人，但他們只是為了維持基本的食品供應和能源而捉襟見肘。話雖如此，罐頭仍然是一種相對經濟的運送飲料、食品或任何其他產品的方式，而且業務發展勢頭良好。

I'm going to assume that the -- we're down 5% in the quarter. I'm going to assume the market is not down as much as we are. We operate on the periphery of Europe that is we described to you before, U.K., Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, couple of plants in the middle, but we're not so big in the middle up through Germany and the Scandinavian countries. I would imagine that the market will do better than we did and as I said earlier, we're not chasing volume right now. We're really focused on improving margins. So while the consumer is weak, and again, our customers are adjusting their buying patterns to deal with a weaker consumer. I don't think the market is as weak as you might think it is for beverage cans. I just think our strategy might be a little different than others right now, and we're focused on improving margins.

我假設本季度我們下降了 5%。我假設市場的跌幅沒有我們那麼嚴重。我們在歐洲外圍開展業務，正如我們之前向您描述的那樣，英國、西班牙、意大利、希臘、土耳其，在中間有幾家工廠，但我們在德國和斯堪的納維亞國家的中間並沒有那麼大。我認為市場會比我們表現得更好，正如我之前所說，我們現在不追逐成交量。我們確實專注於提高利潤率。因此，儘管消費者疲軟，但我們的客戶正在調整他們的購買模式，以應對消費者疲軟的情況。我認為飲料罐市場並不像您想像的那麼疲軟。我只是認為我們現在的策略可能與其他策略略有不同，我們專注於提高利潤率。

Our next question is from Arun Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

So I guess just back to the volume question, I guess, in North America. So if I heard you correctly, I think you said maybe you're up 2% to 3% in the quarter. And this year, you're still seeing an overall down market mainly driven by maybe some weakness on the alcohol side and some improvements on the CSD and water side. So as you look into next year, would you characterize the market so poised to get back to maybe a 2% to 4% growth rate. I know that you can't really tell the beverage companies what to do. But how do we kind of get back to that level of growth?

所以我想回到北美的銷量問題。因此，如果我沒聽錯的話，我認為您說的可能是本季度上漲 2% 到 3%。今年，您仍然會看到整體市場下滑，主要是由於酒精方面的疲軟以及碳酸軟飲料和水方面的一些改善所致。因此，當您展望明年時，您是否會描述市場有望恢復 2% 至 4% 的增長率。我知道你不能真正告訴飲料公司該怎麼做。但我們如何才能回到這種增長水平呢？

So I think the -- again, really, really good question. I think the back half of this year, we probably have a -- especially in the fourth quarter an easier comp this year than we had last year. So I think if we were down -- and remember, these are my estimates. We don't have published data when I estimated the quarter in 6 months, down 3% to 5%. I'm really looking at what our customers have said publicly. And I think there's only one larger CSD company that's reported so far, and they were in the 4% to 4.5% decline range and I'm just going from other anecdotal comments or information that's out there. But I do feel kind of confident in that range of decline.

所以我認為這個問題非常非常好。我認為今年下半年，我們可能會比去年更容易，尤其是在第四季度。所以我認為如果我們的業績下滑——請記住，這些是我的估計。當我估計 6 個月後的季度下降 3% 至 5% 時，我們沒有公佈數據。我確實在關注我們的客戶公開發表的言論。我認為到目前為止，只有一家較大的 CSD 公司有報導，它們的下跌幅度在 4% 到 4.5% 之間，我只是從其他軼事評論或信息中得出的。但我確實對這種下降幅度充滿信心。

I think we'll see that range of decline narrowed in the back half of the year and perhaps be flat or even slightly up just because the Q4 numbers last year were not very good. If we were -- I think last quarter, Arun, we probably tried to guide you from 2% to 4% down to 1% to 3% in the future. And it doesn't have to be, listen, for a beverage can company to be successful, it doesn't have to be 3%. We can be exceptionally successful managing our business with 1%, 2% growth, especially of the much larger base that we have as an industry today than we've had in the past. And you've got a couple of things. You always look at share of stomach. And then when we think about share of stomach, how much of that share of stomach growth is going to come from substrate change from other substrates to the cans. I think we all agree -- we all believe and perhaps some of you agree that the can is well positioned environmentally from a substrate point of view.

我認為我們會看到今年下半年下降幅度收窄，並且可能持平甚至略有上升，只是因為去年第四季度的數據不太好。如果我們——我想上個季度，阿倫，我們可能會試圖引導你在未來從 2% 到 4% 下降到 1% 到 3%。聽著，飲料罐公司要想成功，不一定非得是 3%。我們可以非常成功地管理我們的業務，實現 1%、2% 的增長，特別是我們今天作為一個行業擁有比過去更大的基礎。你有幾件事。你總是看胃的份額。然後，當我們考慮胃的份額時，胃增長的份額有多少將來自於從其他基質到罐頭的基質變化。我想我們都同意——我們都相信，也許你們中的一些人也同意，從基材的角度來看，罐頭的定位非常環保。

The question is how long before the consumer feels more confident to step back out there and spend a little bit more money on something that's a nice treat, a quite refreshing treat. And that -- some of that has to do with consumer confidence. Some of that has to do with our customers' pricing, but the customers clearly have a model now that's very successful for them. But as I said, we don't have to be a 3% to 4% growth for it to be successful. We can be exceptionally successful at 1%. There are some market share shifts happening right now. Perhaps we're not -- we're participating in a little bit of that, not as much as others. But I think responsibly, we're going to have a pretty good year this year, and we're going to have a very good year next year. I don't know how else to say it right now. It's a little early to talk about next year. But as we sit here today, we feel pretty good about the next 18 months.

問題是，消費者多久才會更有信心回到那裡，花更多的錢買一些美味的東西，一種相當清爽的享受。其中一些與消費者信心有關。其中一些與我們客戶的定價有關，但客戶現在顯然擁有一個對他們來說非常成功的模型。但正如我所說，我們不必實現 3% 到 4% 的增長才能取得成功。我們可以在 1% 的情況下取得非凡的成功。目前市場份額正在發生一些變化。也許我們沒有——我們只是參與了其中的一點點，而不是像其他人那樣多。但我負責任地認為，今年我們將會有一個非常好的一年，明年我們也會有一個非常好的一年。我現在不知道還能怎麼說。現在談論明年還為時過早。但當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對未來 18 個月感覺非常好。

Okay. And yes, no, I would agree that there is definitely a robust outlook even at a low single-digit growth rate. So I guess on that note, right now, you're guiding 8% to 12% EBITDA growth for 2023. Is that really the target that you think is possible? I mean given that you're able to achieve that with maybe even more muted volume growth than you thought I know some of it is coming from restructuring at transit and some other drivers recovery in Europe. But should we expect kind of a 8% to 12% EBITDA growth rate as your internal targets and what you're trying to achieve on an annual basis? Because right now, the consensus for next year is up maybe 5% or 6%, which makes me a little conservative. So I just want to get your thoughts on that.

好的。是的，不，我同意，即使增長率僅為低個位數，前景也絕對強勁。因此，我想在這一點上，您目前指導 2023 年 EBITDA 增長 8% 至 12%。您認為這真的是可能的目標嗎？我的意思是，考慮到你能夠實現這一目標，其銷量增長可能比你想像的還要溫和，我知道其中一些來自運輸業的重組和歐洲其他一些驅動因素的複蘇。但我們是否應該將 8% 到 12% 的 EBITDA 增長率作為您的內部目標以及您每年想要實現的目標？因為現在，明年的共識可能會上漲 5% 或 6%，這讓我有點保守。所以我只是想听聽你對此的想法。

Well, listen, we if you were sitting in Kevin Clothier's office, and if you looked at all the papers he is looking at, you'd see a number for EBITDA growth this year that's comfortably within the 8% to 12% range. Our -- the high end of our initial range was predicated on 10% growth in North American beverage, which revolved around a flat market. We've now revolved -- revised that to 7%. But I would say that and we've said it already, both Transit and European beverage are ahead of where we thought they'd be through 6 months. Pretty confident that they're going to remain ahead of initial plan for the full year. So that will offset that. And we remain comfortably within that 8% to 12% range. Again, I think it's a little early to talk about next year.

好吧，聽著，如果您坐在 Kevin Clothier 的辦公室，如果您查看了他正在查看的所有文件，您會看到今年 EBITDA 增長的數字，舒適地在 8% 到 12% 的範圍內。我們的初始範圍的高端是基於北美飲料 10% 的增長，而該市場圍繞著一個平坦的市場。我們現在已經調整了——將其修改為 7%。但我想說的是，我們已經說過了，全順和歐洲飲料都領先於我們 6 個月的預期。他們非常有信心他們將在全年保持領先於最初的計劃。這樣就可以抵消這一點。我們舒適地保持在 8% 到 12% 的範圍內。再說一遍，我認為現在談論明年還為時過早。

I don't know if I really want to say that -- I don't really want to comment on whether the number is 5% or 6% or 8% to 12% next year. It's a little early. But there are some things we're doing really well across most of the businesses. And let's just briefly talk about them, and there's always things that can go the other way. But we have reset the cost profile in transit packaging. We've reset the way we sell product in transit packaging and that business is exceptionally well positioned from a much lower cost base and a better manufacturing mindset to deal with lower volumes as we're doing this year and really benefit from a return to better industrial activity in the future. That's number one.

我不知道我是否真的想說——我真的不想評論明年這個數字是5%還是6%還是8%到12%。時間有點早了。但在大多數業務中，我們在某些​​方面做得非常好。讓我們簡單地談談它們，總有一些事情可以朝相反的方向發展。但我們已經重置了運輸包裝的成本概況。我們已經重新調整了運輸包裝中銷售產品的方式，並且該業務憑藉更低的成本基礎和更好的製造理念，處於非常有利的位置，可以像我們今年所做的那樣處理較低的產量，並且真正受益於更好的回歸未來的工業活動。這是第一。

Number two, as we've said, we have reestablished more appropriate margins that justify investment in our European beverage can business, and we're well on our way to getting back to the target that we've established. So those 2 businesses, they are doing quite well. And I think within the Americas Beverage business, whether it's the United States, whether it's Mexico, whether it's Brazil, some of the businesses may move around. But in total, these businesses are well positioned to continue to do well from a cost base and a manufacturing footprint that we believe is well positioned to deliver value to us as we service customers.

第二，正如我們所說，我們已經重新建立了更合適的利潤率，證​​明了對我們歐洲飲料罐業務的投資是合理的，而且我們正在努力回到我們既定的目標。所以這兩家企業做得很好。我認為在美洲飲料業務中，無論是美國、墨西哥、巴西，有些業務可能會轉移。但總的來說，這些業務處於有利位置，可以從成本基礎和製造足跡中繼續表現良好，我們相信這些業務可以在我們為客戶提供服務時為我們提供價值。

Asia is a little choppy now. I think we're still confident in the long-term view that Southeast Asia is going to be a growing market. So I think I don't -- there's always things that can go wrong. We don't know where currency is going to take us. We don't know if the economy we're feeling right now is a bubble up and eventually will pop. We don't know that. But I don't really want to get into next year. I can tell you that we've made a lot of changes to our industrial infrastructure and our cost profile, which will allow us to weather storms and really benefit as markets settle down and the consumers return to buying more product.

亞洲現在有點動盪。我認為，從長遠來看，我們仍然對東南亞將成為一個不斷增長的市場充滿信心。所以我想我不會——總有可能出錯的地方。我們不知道貨幣將帶我們走向何方。我們不知道我們現在感受到的經濟是否存在泡沫並最終會破裂。我們不知道這一點。但我真的不想進入明年。我可以告訴你，我們已經對工業基礎設施和成本狀況做出了很多改變，這將使我們能夠經受住風暴，並隨著市場穩定下來和消費者重新購買更多產品而真正受益。

Our next question is Phil Ng of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題是 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

Phil. All right, Jackie. We seem to have lost Phil for a moment. Do you have another question?

菲爾.好吧，傑基。我們似乎暫時失去了菲爾。你還有其他問題要問嗎？

All right. It looks like he also queued up. Let me just go ahead and try this other line. Hello, Phil, can you hear us?

好的。看來他也排隊了。讓我繼續嘗試另一條線。你好，菲爾，你能聽到我們說話嗎？

Yes, I can hear you. Can you hear me?

是的，我能聽到你的聲音。你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you, Phil. Go ahead, sorry.

是的，我們能聽到你的聲音，菲爾。繼續吧，抱歉。

Sorry about that. I missed parts of the call. You talked. Can you give us a little more color on Europe, how the start-ups and your capacity coming along? Do you expect some contribution in the back half. The reason why I asked because your comments earlier, down a little more customers certainly in the macro backdrop. So I just want to get a little more flavor in terms of how you're thinking about the back half and would some of that capacity coming on?

對於那個很抱歉。我錯過了部分通話內容。你說了。您能給我們多介紹一下歐洲的情況嗎？初創企業和您的能力如何？你期待後半場有所貢獻嗎？我之所以問，是因為你之前的評論，肯定是在宏觀背景下客戶多下來了一點。所以我只是想了解一下您對後半部分的看法，以及是否會增加一些能力？

Yes. I think in response to Ghansham's question, we talked about volumes in Europe in a fairly weak core consumer. Tourism is up this year in Europe and potentially that's offsetting a weaker core consumer. But as I said, we've been exceptionally focused on driving margin recovery as opposed to chasing every last can, and we'll continue with that strategy. We need to earn appropriate margins before we consider investing further in a market like that. Now having said, we're going to -- well, the first thing I'd say is the back half of last year, the comps are ridiculously easy.

是的。我認為在回答甘沙姆的問題時，我們討論了歐洲核心消費者相當薄弱的銷量。今年歐洲的旅遊業有所增長，這可能會抵消核心消費者疲軟的影響。但正如我所說，我們一直非常專注於推動利潤率恢復，而不是竭盡全力，我們將繼續執行這一策略。在我們考慮進一步投資這樣的市場之前，我們需要獲得適當的利潤。現在話雖如此，我們要——嗯，我要說的第一件事是去年下半年，比賽非常簡單。

Having said that, we're going to trounce the back half of last year. So Q3, Q4 this year are going to be multiples of Q3, Q4 last year. So some of that will come from better price cost management. Some of that comes from additional sales out of Italy and Spain as the new capacity comes up and then we'll work our way through the start-up costs in Peterborough as we wind down Braunstone and move it into Peterborough. So -- but the back half of this year in Europe is going to look nothing like last year. It's going to be multiples better than where we were last year.

話雖如此，我們將擊敗去年下半年。因此，今年第三季度、第四季度將是去年第三季度、第四季度的倍數。因此，其中一些將來自更好的價格成本管理。其中一些來自意大利和西班牙隨著新產能的增加而增加的銷售，然後當我們逐步關閉布勞恩斯通並將其搬到彼得伯勒時，我們將努力解決彼得伯勒的啟動成本。所以，但歐洲今年下半年的情況將與去年完全不同。這將比去年​​好幾倍。

Okay. So you feel pretty good about the capacity coming on at a timely backdrop, just given some of the macro challenges in Europe?

好的。因此，考慮到歐洲面臨的一些宏觀挑戰，您對及時出現的產能感到非常滿意？

Well, listen, Phil, when you make investments, you know you're making an investment for the long term. If you told me I was going to spend a couple of hundred million dollars to build a beverage can plant and I was really worried about the next 3 months or 6 months, you would never do it. These are 50-year investments, and we believe in the product. We believe in the sustainability of the product. We ultimately believe in those countries and those regions we're investing in. And really importantly, we believe in our customers to market their products to consumers and our consumers to want those products. And that's how you make the investment.

好吧，聽著，菲爾，當你進行投資時，你知道你正在進行長期投資。如果你告訴我我要花幾億美元建造一家飲料罐廠，而我真的很擔心接下來的 3 個月或 6 個月，你永遠不會這麼做。這些都是 50 年的投資，我們對產品充滿信心。我們相信產品的可持續性。我們最終相信我們正在投資的這些國家和地區。真正重要的是，我們相信我們的客戶向消費者推銷他們的產品，並且我們的消費者想要這些產品。這就是您進行投資的方式。

And as I said, I've said a number of times, we're not going to get overly concerned in any 3- or 6-month period. These are long-term investments. I think we manage our cost profile exceptionally well that we can overcome short-term disruptions, but I'm not going to comment on what I think the consumer is going to do over 3 or 6 months, but I will tell you, we're -- we feel good about the investments we've made and the future of the business.

正如我所說，我已經說過很多次了，我們不會在任何 3 個月或 6 個月的時間內過度擔心。這些都是長期投資。我認為我們對成本狀況的管理非常好，我們可以克服短期干擾，但我不會評論我認為消費者在 3 或 6 個月內會做什麼，但我會告訴你，我們' re--我們對我們所做的投資和業務的未來感到滿意。

Got you. Makes sense, Tim. And then from an Asia perspective, you kind of pointed out how the background has been choppy. The earnings profile has been pretty steady here. Can you give us a little perspective on how you're thinking about the back half and how that progression will look? It sounds like you're expecting some sort of a pickup in the fourth quarter.

明白你了。有道理，蒂姆。然後從亞洲的角度來看，您指出了背景是如何起伏不定的。這裡的盈利狀況一直相當穩定。您能給我們介紹一下您對後半部分的看法以及進展情況嗎？聽起來您預計第四季度會出現某種回升。

Yes. The only thing I'd correct you, you said the earnings profile has been steady. It has not been steady in Asia. We're down significantly, not only in Q2 but year-to-date.

是的。我唯一要糾正你的是，你說盈利狀況一直很穩定。亞洲的情況並不穩定。我們的業績大幅下滑，不僅在第二季度，而且今年迄今也是如此。

But I'm just talking about sequentially -- over the last 2 to 3 quarters, it's been relatively steady from these drop levels...

但我只是按順序談論 - 在過去的 2 到 3 個季度中，這些下降水平相對穩定......

Q3 will be similar to last year's Q3 and Q4 should be better than last year's Q4. But for the full year, we're going to be down to touch. We'll be down in Asia, just only because Q2 came in much weaker than we thought it would. And again, the back half of this year has easier comps than the back half of last year. But as I said, Q3, similar to last year, Q4 better than last year.

第三季度將與去年第三季度類似，第四季度應該會好於去年第四季度。但對於全年來說，我們將保持密切聯繫。我們在亞洲的表現將會下降，只是因為第二季度的表現比我們想像的要弱得多。再說一次，今年下半年的比賽比去年下半年要容易。但正如我所說，第三季度與去年類似，第四季度比去年更好。

Our next question is from Anthony Pettinari of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安東尼·佩蒂納里。

This is actually Bryan Burgmeier sitting in for Anthony. You're talking about outperforming the U.S. can industry by like 10% on volume growth. I think the first half has been a little bit below the 10% mark, which is maybe a little surprising given the weakness of U.S. beer. And do you think once Mesquite is online, that outperformance can expand in the second half? And then also was the Mesquite start-up delays a little bit?

這實際上是布萊恩·伯格梅爾（Bryan Burgmeier）代替安東尼。您所說的銷量增長超過美國罐頭行業 10% 左右。我認為上半年略低於 10% 大關，考慮到美國啤酒的疲軟，這可能有點令人驚訝。您認為一旦 Mesquite 上線，這種優異表現會在下半年擴大嗎？另外，Mesquite 的啟動是否也有一點延遲？

So Mesquite has been delayed. We had -- we'd initially hoped that we'd be up already now. We had some electrical component panels, et cetera, delays from suppliers and -- but we are targeting late August start-up as we get components that we need, it's been a little disappointing. Most of the supply chain for these things are starting to ease, but there still are some issues out there. I think the growth we see in the back half of the year, some of it around the start-up in Mesquite, some of it around the acceleration of Martinsville through its learning curve, but largely around the promotional activity that our customers that we see our customers having begun to make in May, June and here in July, and we expect to carry through the end of the third quarter as it relates the business that we have under contract and the capacity that we available to service that.

所以梅斯基特被推遲了。我們最初希望我們現在就已經起床了。我們有一些電氣元件面板，等等，供應商的延誤，但我們的目標是八月底啟動，因為我們得到了我們需要的元件，這有點令人失望。這些東西的大部分供應鏈都開始緩解，但仍然存在一些問題。我認為我們在今年下半年看到的增長，其中一些是圍繞梅斯基特的初創企業，一些是圍繞馬丁斯維爾通過其學習曲線的加速，但主要是圍繞我們看到的客戶的促銷活動我們的客戶已於 5 月、6 月和 7 月開始生產，我們預計將持續到第三季度末，因為這關係到我們根據合同所擁有的業務以及我們可提供的服務能力。

Got it. Thanks for the detail. Last question for me. We don't talk about nonreportable too much, but it was a bit weaker than we expected in the quarter. Can you maybe remind us why nonreportable is kind of unwinding so much this year? And do you think maybe on an EBIT basis, do we start to get back to the 2021 levels?

知道了。謝謝你的詳細信息。對我來說最後一個問題。我們不會過多談論不可報告的問題，但該季度的情況比我們預期的要弱一些。您能否提醒我們為什麼今年不可報告的情況如此放鬆？您認為在息稅前利潤的基礎上，我們是否會開始回到 2021 年的水平？

Well, the big difference, and you saw it in Q1 was the inventory carrying gains that we took from '21 into '22 at much higher tinplate prices. That doesn't recur this year. The other thing that's happening and we've been pretty open about it, 2 things. One, aerosol can volumes for the entire North American market, and I'm assuming for Europe, although we're not in Europe any longer. But aerosol cans exceptionally weak double digits. And when I say double digits, I mean, well over 10% volume decline across most aerosol can products year-on-year, which is a preview of the economy.

嗯，最大的區別，你在第一季度看到的，是我們從 21 年到 22 年以高得多的馬口鐵價格獲得的庫存持有收益。今年這種情況不會再發生。另一件正在發生的事情，我們對此一直持開放態度，有兩件事。第一，氣霧劑罐在整個北美市場的銷量，我假設在歐洲，儘管我們已經不在歐洲了。但氣霧罐的兩位數表現卻格外微弱。當我說兩位數時，我的意思是，大多數氣霧罐產品的銷量同比下降了 10% 以上，這是經濟的預演。

If you -- we historically look back, we always say that as we follow our aerosol can volumes, we can predict what the economy is going to look like over the next 6 or 8 months. So -- but aerosol has been weak now for 6 or 8 months. And then secondly, we noted to you at the end of the first quarter, we took a head count reduction charge in our global beverage can making equipment business. And that business is now slower than it has been in the last several years as companies digest and start up much of the new capacity they brought up. And so that businesses -- the equipment supply business is lower than it has been in the past. But I think -- I don't have '21 in front of me. I'm not sure how far below '21, we are in the business year-to-date. I do think that as we look to the back half of this year, the back half of this year, in total will look very similar to the back half of last year in that business.

如果我們回顧歷史，我們總是說，當我們跟踪氣霧罐銷量時，我們可以預測未來 6 或 8 個月的經濟狀況。所以——但是氣溶膠已經疲軟六到八個月了。其次，我們在第一季度末向您指出，我們在全球飲料罐製造設備業務中採取了人員減少費用。隨著企業消化並啟動大部分新產能，該業務現在的速度比過去幾年要慢。因此，設備供應業務比過去要低。但我想——我面前沒有21歲。我不確定今年迄今為止我們的業務距 21 年還有多遠。我確實認為，當我們展望今年下半年時，今年下半年該行業的整體情況將與去年下半年非常相似。

Our next question is from Kyle White of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的凱爾·懷特。

In the U.S., now that you have Martinsville ramping up and Mesquite about to start, are you happy with your current footprint in the U.S.? Is there room for improvement here to drive operating rates higher? Or are they in a good spot, just given the current demand backdrop?

在美國，現在馬丁斯維爾 (Martinsville) 正在崛起，梅斯基特 (Mesquite) 即將啟動，您對目前在美國的足跡感到滿意嗎？這裡是否有改進的空間來提高開工率？或者考慮到當前的需求背景，它們是否處於有利位置？

Listen, I think we -- I got to be careful I say this, I don't -- it's not my position to talk about what others do. I think we were always -- how do I say this? We probably didn't announce as much capacity as all of you wanted us to 2 or 3 years ago. I would say that we were very measured in the capacity and the expansion that we announced and that we affected, and we're happy with our footprint, given a more measured approach to capacity expansion over the last couple of years as opposed to the market in total. I would say that where we sit today with our infrastructure in North America and where we see gains, market share gains transpiring over the next 18 months throughout the industry that we're satisfied with our footprint geographically and size-wise. So remember, we're not just all making 12-ounce cans anymore. We all have a variety of sizes and different geographies. And I would say that we're quite satisfied with our platform.

聽著，我認為我們——我必須小心地說，我不——談論別人所做的事情不是我的立場。我想我們一直都是——我該怎麼說呢？兩三年前我們可能沒有宣布像大家希望的那樣多的容量。我想說的是，我們對我們宣布的和我們影響的產能和擴張非常謹慎，而且我們對我們的足跡感到滿意，因為過去幾年我們對產能擴張採取了比市場更謹慎的方法總共。我想說的是，我們今天在北美的基礎設施所處的位置，以及未來 18 個月整個行業的市場份額增長，我們對我們在地理和規模方面的足跡感到滿意。所以請記住，我們不再只生產 12 盎司罐頭。我們都有不同的規模和不同的地理位置。我想說我們對我們的平台非常滿意。

Got it. That makes sense. And then on Transit, I think you said volumes in the quarter were down 12% to 13%, which is relatively expected given the global backdrop. Just curious how that progressed throughout the quarter? Are you seeing any deceleration in demand as you go into the second half? I know you'll start lapping some easier comps, but just curious how things are progressing going into the back half?

知道了。這就說得通了。然後關於 Transit，我想您說過本季度的交易量下降了 12% 至 13%，考慮到全球背景，這是相對預期的。只是好奇整個季度進展如何？進入下半年，您是否發現需求有所放緩？我知道你會開始進行一些更簡單的比賽，但只是好奇進入後半部分的情況進展如何？

Yes. So I would have -- I know exactly where your question is because I agree with you. I would have expected volumes to decline through the quarter in the second quarter, and they didn't. I think our team in transit is really cautious going into the back half of the year on volume. I think, however, they're going to do better than that. The back half of the year, comps are a little easy. They're not as easy as some of the other businesses. But the business is holding up better than your question implies. The business is holding up better than our fears and it's probably holding up a little better right now through July than even the transit team had put forward only because I -- Kevin and I think they've been cautious.

是的。所以我會——我確切地知道你的問題在哪裡，因為我同意你的觀點。我原本預計第二季度的銷量會下降，但事實並非如此。我認為我們的運輸團隊在進入今年下半年的數量方面非常謹慎。不過，我認為他們會做得更好。今年下半年，比賽有點容易。它們並不像其他一些業務那麼容易。但該業務的表現比您的問題所暗示的要好。業務的表現比我們的擔憂要好，而且從現在到 7 月，它的表現可能比運輸團隊提出的要好一些，只是因為我——凱文和我認為他們一直很謹慎。

Now they've probably been cautious rightly so because we don't really know what's going to happen. But the business is holding up better. We've talked about it before. The business is really different than the business was 10 or 15 years ago. It's just a -- it's a much more diverse business, much more end markets that they serve, not so dependent upon the metals inventory. So some of the markets as we've said before, some of the markets that we serve are certainly cyclical but the business has been very stable, just given the diversity of its end market supply and customer supply. So I understand the point. We understand the point. We as well keep waiting for even a bigger slowdown, but it seems to be holding up very well.

現在他們的謹慎態度可能是正確的，因為我們真的不知道會發生什麼。但業務表現較好。我們之前已經討論過。現在的行業與 10 或 15 年前相比確實有所不同。這只是——這是一個更加多樣化的業務，他們服務的終端市場要多得多，而不那麼依賴金屬庫存。因此，正如我們之前所說，我們服務的一些市場肯定是周期性的，但鑑於其終端市場供應和客戶供應的多樣性，業務一直非常穩定。所以我明白了這一點。我們明白這一點。我們也在等待更大幅度的放緩，但它似乎保持得很好。

And the next question is from Gabe Hajde of Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Gabe Hajde。

Tim, there was a presentation out on the investor part of your website detailing out quite a bit of the cash flow characteristics of the transit business and maybe even, I think, the North American food can business and talking about some of the dynamics in there. I'm just curious, I know it's tough in this forum to maybe go into a lot of detail, but just maybe the intent of that presentation or what you're trying to let investors understand with that presentation. And then the cash flow characteristics of Transit specifically. Is there anything unique about it in terms of, I guess, repatriating that cash or where it generates a lot of its cash flow relative to the rest of your business?

蒂姆，您網站的投資者部分有一個演示，詳細介紹了運輸業務的相當多的現金流特徵，我認為甚至可能包括北美食品罐頭業務，並討論了其中的一些動態。我只是很好奇，我知道在這個論壇上可能很難詳細說明，但也許只是該演示文稿的意圖或您試圖通過該演示文稿讓投資者理解的內容。然後具體是全順的現金流特徵。我想，在匯回現金或相對於您的其他業務產生大量現金流方面，它有什麼獨特之處嗎？

Second part of the question, really easy. Almost no complications whatsoever in repatriating cash in Transit, certainly far less than in other businesses. We don't have any significant -- we might have one -- I don't think we have any minority interest positions in transit. So all the cash is ours. And much of the business is in greater than 50% of the business is in the United States. And almost all of the businesses in countries where we don't have any restrictions whatsoever. I think that it's probably been a while since we had a fulsome investor presentation. So we just thought it would be helpful if we put one together posted on the website, whether it's used in conferences or it's available to investors to (inaudible).

問題的第二部分，非常簡單。 Transit 匯回現金幾乎沒有任何復雜性，當然遠低於其他企業。我們沒有任何重大的——我們可能有——我認為我們在運輸過程中沒有任何少數股東權益。所以所有的現金都是我們的。而且大部分業務都在美國，超過 50% 的業務都在美國。幾乎所有的業務都在我們沒有任何限制的國家/地區進行。我認為我們可能已經有一段時間沒有進行過精彩的投資者介紹了。因此，我們只是認為，如果我們將一個內容放在一起發佈在網站上，無論是在會議中使用還是可供投資者使用（聽不清），都會有所幫助。

So be it the point about reminding ourselves and everybody else is to the cash flow characteristics of certain businesses, you need cash to run a business. And I know everybody got real excited about don't worry about cash flow. You're a growth company over the last several years. And whenever I hear an investor say, don't worry about cash flow, it makes me wonder which pension plan is investing their money with that guy because that's a bad thing. Cash flow is always important. And so whether it's food and aerosol cans or Transit Packaging, these businesses have well-established industrial footprints, which require very little capital to maintain and run and generate the cash that they generate.

因此，提醒我們自己和其他人的一點是，對於某些企業的現金流特徵，您需要現金來經營企業。我知道每個人都對不用擔心現金流感到非常興奮。在過去的幾年裡，您是一家成長型公司。每當我聽到投資者說，不要擔心現金流，我就會想知道哪個養老金計劃將他們的錢投資在那個人身上，因為這是一件壞事。現金流永遠很重要。因此，無論是食品和氣霧罐還是運輸包裝，這些企業都擁有完善的工業足跡，只需很少的資本來維護、運營和產生現金。

Food and aerosol from time to time, especially food, as the business has grown more from human food consumption to pet food, we've made some investments for pet food, and we're a very large supplier to the North American pet food market and we do quite well there, and that's where the investment has been focused on food can. On Transit, we're talking about 1.5% of sales in annual capital to maintain or marginally grow the business. And as we said, when we acquired the business several years ago, the capital needs are not very great in that business that any growth in that business would come from bolt-on acquisitions. So -- and so it's not a capital-intensive business. I think if you somewhere in the annual report, we probably show long-lived assets for that business. The long-lived assets as a percentage of revenue is very low. It's -- it is a business that's more of a service business than our other businesses, but it's still manufacturing at heart. So listen, cash flow is important. We just -- we think it's important that everybody understand where we generate the cash.

時不時的食品和氣霧劑，特別是食品，隨著業務更多地從人類食品消費發展到寵物食品，我們對寵物食品進行了一些投資，我們是北美寵物食品市場非常大的供應商我們在那裡做得很好，這就是投資集中在食品罐頭的地方。在 Transit 上，我們討論的是年資本中銷售額的 1.5% 用於維持或小幅增長業務。正如我們所說，當我們幾年前收購該業務時，該業務的資本需求並不是很大，該業務的任何增長都將來自補強收購。所以——所以這不是一個資本密集型業務。我認為，如果您在年度報告中的某個地方，我們可能會顯示該業務的長期資產。長期資產佔收入的百分比非常低。這是一個比我們其他業務更多的服務業務，但它的核心仍然是製造業。所以聽著，現金流很重要。我們只是——我們認為讓每個人都了解我們產生現金的地方很重要。

Understood. Right. I think it's a good business.

明白了。正確的。我認為這是一門好生意。

And -- the only thing I'd say, Gabe, is that we have been growing the beverage can business over the last several years. So the cash flow in that business has been depressed. But obviously, expecting a significant step down in capital over the next couple of years in that business. So that business is going to return to generating a lot of cash as well.

加布，我唯一想說的是，過去幾年我們一直在發展飲料罐業務。因此該業務的現金流一直受到抑制。但顯然，預計未來幾年該業務的資本將大幅減少。因此，該業務也將恢復產生大量現金。

Okay. Second one, two-part, I apologize. One of the things that I'm sort of scratching my head on a little bit, and we saw this play out, obviously, over the past, I don't pick a number 24 months in terms of where inventories were at. But from your perspective, is there anything that you can tell us as it relates to your customers' inventory or maybe finished stock inventory. And the reason why I'm asking is because, obviously, there's I don't want to say a disconnect, but a timing difference between sell-in and sell-through for the beverage can business, specifically talking about North America. So we're looking at Nielsen data, and I appreciate again on the beer side, it's not as big for Crown. But it seems like I said, there's this growing chasm in there.

好的。第二部，分為兩部分，抱歉。其中一件讓我有點摸不著頭腦的事情，我們看到了這一點，顯然，在過去，我不會根據庫存情況選擇 24 個月的數字。但從您的角度來看，您有什麼可以告訴我們的，因為這與您客戶的庫存或成品庫存有關。我之所以問這個問題，是因為，顯然，我不想說脫節，而是飲料罐業務的售入和售出之間存在時間差異，特別是在北美。所以我們正在研究尼爾森的數據，我再次欣賞啤酒方面的數據，這對皇冠來說沒有那麼大。但似乎就像我說的，那裡存在著越來越大的鴻溝。

And again, I know there are some share shifts. So anything that you can tell us in terms of where you think inventories might be for the system? And then the second part, is, obviously, with some of the noise going around with North American beer customer, Mexico has been the beneficiary. Can you talk about your ability to participate in that? I think Modelo has been called out as a pretty big winner, but just anything around Mexican beer.

再說一遍，我知道存在一些份額變化。那麼您可以告訴我們您認為系統庫存可能在哪裡嗎？第二部分顯然是，隨著北美啤酒客戶的一些噪音，墨西哥一直是受益者。您能談談您參與其中的能力嗎？我認為莫德羅被認為是一個相當大的贏家，但與墨西哥啤酒有關的任何東西都是如此。

So I would say, specific to both North America and Europe, I don't believe our customers have any excess inventory in hand. In North America, they almost carry no inventory. We deliver just in time. The cans roll in on 15-minute intervals, they go into the can washer, they fill them and then they ship them out, the customers don't carry a lot of inventory. We have seen customer inventory in Southeast Asia, post-Chinese New Year and even in Brazil, a little bit post Carnival being a little higher than we've typically seen.

所以我想說，具體到北美和歐洲，我不相信我們的客戶手頭有任何多餘的庫存。在北美，他們幾乎沒有庫存。我們準時交貨。罐子每隔 15 分鐘滾動一次，進入洗罐機，裝滿，然後運出，客戶不會攜帶大量庫存。我們看到東南亞、農曆新年後甚至巴西的客戶庫存（嘉年華後略高於我們通常看到的水平）。

And that might have led to lower demand from our customers as they work down their inventories in those regions. But as it relates to North America, there's no inventory issue at our customer level. On the beer situation, we do have a very big or a very large Mexican beverage can business. We service a wide variety of customers, including beer, I would suggest that the beer customer that you're describing that ships into the United States is not one of our larger customers. It is a larger customer for somebody else.

這可能會導致我們的客戶在減少這些地區的庫存時需求下降。但由於涉及北美，我們的客戶層面不存在庫存問題。在啤酒方面，我們確實有一個非常大或非常大的墨西哥飲料罐業務。我們為各種各樣的客戶提供服務，包括啤酒，我建議您所描述的運往美國的啤酒客戶不是我們的大客戶之一。對於其他人來說，這是一個更大的客戶。

Thank you, speakers. At this time, we don't have any questions on queue.

謝謝各位發言者。目前，我們在隊列中沒有任何問題。

Okay. Then Jackie, thank you very much. I guess that concludes the call today. Thank all of you for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in October. Bye now.

好的。那麼傑基，非常感謝你。我想今天的電話會議就到此結束了。感謝大家加入我們，我們期待十月份再次與您交談。再見了。

Thank you, everyone. That concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

謝謝大家。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。