Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Crown Holdings First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加皇冠控股 2023 年第一季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised this conference is being recorded.

請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

我現在想將電話轉給高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Marcia, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you do not already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com.

謝謝你，瑪西婭，早上好。與我一起參加今天電話會議的是總裁兼首席執行官蒂姆·多納休 (Tim Donahue)。如果您還沒有收益發布，可以在我們的網站 Crowncork.com 上獲取。

On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release, in our SEC filings and our Form 10-K for 2022 and subsequent filings. First quarter earnings were $0.85 a share compared to $1.74 a share in the prior first quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20 in the quarter compared to $2.01 in 2022. Net sales in the quarter were down 6% from the prior year reflecting higher unit sales volumes in Americas Beverage, offset by lower unit volumes in most other businesses.

在這次電話會議上，就像在財報發布中一樣，我們將做出一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與此類聲明存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果發生變化的因素的更多信息包含在新聞稿、我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及我們 2022 年及後續文件的 10-K 表格中。第一季度每股收益為 0.85 美元，而上一季度每股收益為 1.74 美元。本季度調整後每股收益為 1.20 美元，而 2022 年為 2.01 美元。本季度淨銷售額較上年下降 6%，反映出美洲飲料單位銷量增加，但被大多數其他業務單位銷量下降所抵消。

The pass-through of approximately $100 million of lower raw material costs and $36 million from the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar. Segment income at $320 million in the quarter compared to $383 million in the prior year, and reflects the benefit of contractual recovery of prior year's inflationary cost increases in European beverage, cost reduction initiatives in transit packaging offset by $60 million of year-over-year steel repricing in North American tinplate businesses. That is $48 million of gains in Q1 of 2022 versus $12 million of losses in Q1 of 2023.

原材料成本下降帶來約 1 億美元的轉嫁效應，美元走強的影響帶來約 3,600 萬美元的轉嫁效應。本季度的部門收入為 3.2 億美元，而上一年為 3.83 億美元，反映了上年歐洲飲料通脹成本增加的合同回收效益，運輸包裝成本削減舉措同比抵消了 6,000 萬美元北美馬口鐵企業的鋼材重新定價。也就是說，2022 年第一季度的收益為 4800 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季度的損失為 1200 萬美元。

We have better than expected first quarter and we remain optimistic for 2023. We reaffirm full year guidance as follows. We expect EBITDA to grow 8% to 12%, and we expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $6.20 and $6.40.

我們第一季度的業績好於預期，我們對 2023 年保持樂觀。我們重申全年指引如下。我們預計 EBITDA 將增長 8% 至 12%，全年調整後每股收益將在 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。

Second quarter adjusted EPS is expected to be in a range of $1.60 and to $1.70 per share. Our full year adjusted even guidance includes the following, which remains unchanged from our previous guidance. Net interest expense of $400 million in 2023 compared to $270 million in 2022. $0.40 of incremental noncash pension and postretirement costs, average common shares outstanding to be approximately 120 million and the full year tax rate to be between 24% and 25%.

第二季度調整後每股收益預計在 1.60 美元至 1.70 美元之間。我們的全年調整後均勻指引包括以下內容，與我們之前的指引保持不變。 2023 年淨利息支出為 4 億美元，而 2022 年為 2.7 億美元。非現金養老金和退休後成本增量為 0.40 美元，平均已發行普通股約為 1.2 億股，全年稅率為 24% 至 25%。

Depreciation of approximately $350 million compared to $301 million in 2022. Noncontrolling interest to be approximately $140 million, and dividends to noncontrolling interest are expected to be around $110 million. Free cash flow is projected to be $500 million with capital spending of $900 million. We expect the majority of free cash flow to go to debt reduction until we get within our target leverage ratio range of 3 to 3.5x.

折舊約為 3.5 億美元，而 2022 年為 3.01 億美元。非控股權益約為 1.4 億美元，非控股權益股息預計約為 1.1 億美元。自由現金流預計為 5 億美元，資本支出為 9 億美元。我們預計大部分自由現金流將用於減少債務，直到槓桿率達到 3 至 3.5 倍的目標範圍。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

這樣，我會將電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everybody. I'll be brief, and then we'll open the call for questions. As reflected in last night's earnings release, and as Kevin just summarized, first quarter performance was better than expected on the back of stronger results in European Beverage and Transit Packaging. Compared to the prior year, net results were impacted by prior year steel repricing and higher interest and retirement benefit expenses. Global beverage can volumes were down 2.5% to the prior year and reflect the impact of an inflation-weary consumer as well as economic slowdowns in some markets.

謝謝你，凱文，祝大家早上好。我會簡短髮言，然後我們將開始提問。正如昨晚的財報所反映的那樣，正如凱文剛剛總結的那樣，由於歐洲飲料和運輸包裝業務的強勁業績，第一季度的業績好於預期。與上一年相比，淨利潤受到上一年鋼鐵重新定價以及利息和退休福利費用增加的影響。全球飲料罐銷量比上年下降 2.5%，反映出消費者厭倦通脹以及部分市場經濟放緩的影響。

From 2019 through the end of 2023, we will have added more than 25 billion units or 30-plus percent of annualized beverage can capacity globally, from which to serve local and regional customers. Our Americas and European beverage can platforms are well positioned to continue to serve our customers' diverse and growing needs. As discussed with you in February, and as Kevin just reiterated, we expect capital expenditures to approximate $500 million in 2024 with resulting incremental cash flows being used to delever and return cash to shareholders.

從 2019 年到 2023 年底，我們將在全球範圍內新增超過 250 億個飲料罐產能，佔年度飲料罐產能的 30% 以上，為當地和區域客戶提供服務。我們的美洲和歐洲飲料罐平台處於有利地位，可以繼續滿足客戶多樣化且不斷增長的需求。正如 2 月份與您討論的那樣，正如 Kevin 剛剛重申的那樣，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出約為 5 億美元，由此產生的增量現金流將用於去槓桿化並將現金返還給股東。

In Americas Beverage, unit volume growth was 6% in the quarter, with North America up 4% and Brazil up 23% off an easy comp from Q1 of 2022. While promotional activity was lighter than anticipated in North America, we remain optimistic that summer selling season promotions will begin during the second quarter. We estimate the North American market was down 2% during the quarter with the entirety of the decline found in imported cans, that is domestic producers were flat in total. Importantly, from April 1, the formulaic PPI increases are reflected in our selling prices, beginning the recovery of cost increases experienced over the past year.

在美洲飲料領域，本季度單位銷量增長 6%，與 2022 年第一季度相比，北美增長 4%，巴西增長 23%。雖然北美的促銷活動比預期要少，但我們對今年夏天仍持樂觀態度銷售季促銷活動將於第二季度開始。我們估計北美市場在本季度下降了 2%，其中進口罐頭的整體下降，即國內生產商總體持平。重要的是，從4月1日起，公式化的PPI漲幅反映在我們的銷售價格中，開始恢復過去一年的成本增長。

During the quarter, the second line at our new plant in Martinsville, Virginia, began commercial shipments, and we expect the first line in Mesquite, Nevada to commence shipments in July, followed by the second line in October. During the first quarter, our Brazilian beverage can customers filed for bankruptcy protection, and we have adjusted our Brazilian sales outlook for the balance of the year to reflect this specific customer situation. We believe the registered collateral provides adequate security for our receivable balance.

本季度，我們位於弗吉尼亞州馬丁斯維爾的新工廠的第二條生產線開始商業發貨，我們預計內華達州梅斯基特的第一條生產線將於 7 月開始發貨，隨後第二條生產線將於 10 月開始發貨。第一季度，我們的巴西飲料罐客戶申請破產保護，我們調整了今年剩餘時間的巴西銷售前景，以反映這一特定客戶情況。我們相信註冊抵押品為我們的應收賬款餘額提供了足夠的擔保。

Income in the segment is still expected to improve meaningfully for the full year. And as discussed previously, will be weighted towards the back half. Unit volumes in European Beverage declined high single digits during the quarter, with notable weakness experienced in Spain, Turkey and the U.K., primarily due to the impact of the earthquake in Turkey, retail price increases as well as customers managing their working capital by deferring their purchase of cans closer to the summer selling season.

預計全年該部門的收入仍將顯著改善。正如前面所討論的，將向後半部分加權。本季度歐洲飲料的單位銷量出現高個位數下降，西班牙、土耳其和英國的銷量明顯疲軟，這主要是由於土耳其地震的影響、零售價格上漲以及客戶通過推遲交貨來管理營運資金。購買罐頭接近夏季銷售季節。

Importantly, our efforts to restore margin with more appropriate contractual recovery mechanisms are underway, with the first quarter registering notable sequential improvement from the second half of 2022. We expect the business to continue to perform well with improvement expected year-over-year in each of the remaining 3 quarters of the year.

重要的是，我們正在努力通過更適當的合同回收機制來恢復利潤率，第一季度較 2022 年下半年出現顯著的環比改善。我們預計該業務將繼續表現良好，各方面預計將同比改善。今年剩下的3個季度。

Beverage can volumes in Asia Pacific declined double digits, with declines noted in almost each market. The impact of higher retail prices, inflation in general, and slowing economies all contributed to lower overall demand. We do expect the segment's income to approach prior year levels, albeit weighted towards the back half of the year.

亞太地區的飲料罐銷量下降了兩位數，幾乎每個市場都出現了下降。零售價格上漲、總體通脹和經濟放緩的影響都導致總體需求下降。我們確實預計該部門的收入將接近去年的水平，儘管是在今年下半年進行加權。

Income in Transit Packaging improved almost 30% over the prior year as benefits from the overhead reduction program initiated last year, coupled with the mix benefit of selective pruning of lower-margin SKUs and accounts more than offset like-for-like volume declines. Margins were improved across commodity product lines and in equipment.

由於去年啟動的管理費用削減計劃帶來的收益，加上選擇性削減利潤較低的 SKU 和賬戶的綜合效益，運輸包裝業務的收入比上年增長了近 30%，足以抵消同比銷量下降的影響。商品產品線和設備的利潤率均有所提高。

As expected, headwinds from prior year inventory repricing gains, coupled with weak aerosol demand offset the benefit of higher food can sales driving income and other well below the prior year. During the quarter, we made provision to rightsize head counts in our U.K. can-making equipment business to reflect lower expected activity.

正如預期的那樣，去年庫存重新定價收益的不利因素，加上氣霧劑需求疲軟，抵消了食品罐頭銷量增加帶來的收益和其他遠低於去年的收益。在本季度，我們為調整英國製罐設備業務的員工人數做出了準備，以反映較低的預期活動。

So in summary, a solid start to the year and overall ahead of plan. Looking ahead, we expect the second quarter will continue to reflect improving results in European Beverage in transit with Americas Beverage beginning to show improvement by the third quarter. It's still early in the year, so we maintain our earlier guidance range of 8% to 12% EBITDA growth despite the outperformance in the first quarter.

總而言之，今年有一個良好的開端，總體上提前了計劃。展望未來，我們預計第二季度將繼續反映出歐洲飲料運輸業績的改善，而美洲飲料在第三季度開始出現改善。現在還處於今年年初，因此儘管第一季度表現出色，但我們仍維持之前 8% 至 12% EBITDA 增長的指導範圍。

And with that, Marcia, I think we are now ready to take questions.

瑪西婭，我想我們現在準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We have the first question coming from the line of Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho.

我們的第一個問題來自瑞穗的克里斯托弗·帕金森。

Can you just hit a little bit more on your specific performance in North America? I appreciate the market-driven remarks. But in terms of just what you're seeing in various substrates across energy, seltzer, nonalcoholic to be clear, CSD versus beer, and as well as the ready-to-drink launches. If you could just break things down and articulate how you see those substrates developing throughout the year? And what that means for Crown, specifically? That would be greatly appreciated.

您能多介紹一下您在北美的具體表現嗎？我很欣賞這種以市場為導向的言論。但就你在能源、蘇打水、非酒精飲料、碳酸飲料與啤酒以及即飲飲料等各種基質中所看到的情況而言。您是否可以將事情分解並闡明您如何看待這些基材全年的發展？這對於皇冠來說意味著什麼？我們將不勝感激。

So I think that in North America, specifically, we're not very big in beer. We have a significant craft beer presence in Canada, but in the United States, not very big in beer. We do supply some beer. So I'm going to stay away from beer for the time being. I think you're going to continue to see ready-to-drink energy drinks. Those new launches, those new lines continue to grow, albeit of smaller bases than the bigger products that move volume.

所以我認為，特別是在北美，我們的啤酒規模並不是很大。我們在加拿大擁有重要的精釀啤酒業務，但在美國，啤酒業務規模不大。我們確實供應一些啤酒。所以我暫時不喝啤酒了。我認為您會繼續看到即飲能量飲料。這些新產品的推出、新產品線仍在繼續增長，儘管其基數比那些銷量較大的產品要小。

So for example, carbonated soft drink teas, sparkling water. I think we'll see sparkling water do okay. Carbonated soft drinks, I think, is going to be largely centered around the level of promotional activity we see over the balance of the year. And as Kevin said, we remain optimistic and albeit a little ahead of our earlier forecast here in Q1, but not adjusting our full year estimate only because until we see some sign of larger promotional activity, it's really hard to step up -- step out and adjust the full year. We'll get a chance to do that again in July if we need to. But I think everything revolves around CSD promotions, and we better start seeing that by the middle of May before the Memorial Day holiday and straight through to the middle of June ahead of the July 4th holiday.

例如，碳酸軟飲料茶、蘇打水。我想我們會看到蘇打水效果不錯。我認為，碳酸軟飲料將主要集中在我們今年剩餘時間裡看到的促銷活動水平。正如凱文所說，我們仍然樂觀，儘管比我們之前對第一季度的預測稍稍領先，但不會調整我們的全年預測，只是因為在我們看到更大規模促銷活動的跡象之前，真的很難採取行動。並調整全年。如果需要的話，我們將有機會在七月再次這樣做。但我認為一切都圍繞 CSD 促銷活動展開，我們最好在陣亡將士紀念日假期之前的 5 月中旬開始看到這一點，並一直到 7 月 4 日假期之前的 6 月中旬。

That's helpful. And just turning over to the Asian market. One of, what I presume to be one of your regional customers, has been citing the fact that underlying demand growth has been very, very healthy, but obviously, there's a bit of a destock going on between the fourth quarter and the first quarter. So if you could just hit on the underlying demand trends in that marketplace. What that meant for the first quarter versus what it means for the remainder of the year would also be incredibly helpful?

這很有幫助。並剛剛轉向亞洲市場。其中一位（我猜是你們的區域客戶）一直指出，潛在需求增長非常非常健康，但顯然，第四季度和第一季度之間存在一定程度的去庫存。因此，如果您能夠抓住該市場的潛在需求趨勢。這對第一季度意味著什麼，對今年剩餘時間意味著什麼，也會非常有幫助嗎？

Yes. So I think we have 2 different issues in Asia. One, as we described for you in February, the Cambodian market is exceptionally weak. A big part of their economy relates to the textile industry, with exports to Europe and elsewhere around the world, and that industry is struggling. And as the Cambodian consumer, and certain industries in Cambodia struggle, can sales are down. .

是的。所以我認為我們在亞洲有兩個不同的問題。第一，正如我們在二月份為您描述的那樣，柬埔寨市場異常疲軟。他們的經濟很大一部分與紡織業有關，向歐洲和世界其他地方出口，但該行業正在苦苦掙扎。隨著柬埔寨消費者和柬埔寨某些行業的困境，罐頭銷量下降。 。

The issue you referred to, with the one customer you're referring to has to do with the inventory, the filled good inventory that was built ahead of Chinese New Year. The sell-through at Chinese New Year was not as strong as they and others had hoped. So there still is a fair amount of filled inventory in the system that has to be cleared out. The slowness of the Chinese New Year and the wedding season in certain countries in Asia, largely a result of a stressed consumer. And so we'll see where that takes us. But I think we will see -- as we get into the back half of the second quarter into the third quarter, we'll start to see some recovery in most of those markets, specifically Vietnam.

您提到的問題，對於您提到的一位客戶來說，與庫存有關，即在農曆新年之前建立的庫存充足的庫存。農曆新年的銷售量並不像他們和其他人所希望的那麼強勁。因此，系統中仍然有相當數量的已填充庫存需要清理。亞洲某些國家的農曆新年和婚禮季進展緩慢，很大程度上是由於消費者壓力大所致。所以我們會看看這會帶我們去哪裡。但我認為我們會看到，當我們進入第二季度後半段到第三季度時，我們將開始看到大多數市場（特別是越南）出現一些復甦。

We have the next question coming from the line of Ghansham Panjabi from Baird.

下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

I guess, first off, maybe you can give us a sense as to beverage can volumes in Europe as an industry. I know you broke that out for yourself, your geographic mix is a little bit different with Turkey, et cetera. So just give us some color in Continental Europe in terms of what you've seen.

我想，首先，也許您可以讓我們了解歐洲飲料罐行業的產量。我知道你自己已經說過了，你的地理組合與土耳其等有點不同。因此，請根據您所看到的情況向我們介紹一下歐洲大陸的情況。

And then some of your customers that have been reporting have pointed towards the consumer there just being increasingly cautious in terms of spending and so on and so forth, trading down, et cetera. How do you see the year unfolding for that region for you?

然後，一些報告的客戶指出，那裡的消費者在支出等方面變得越來越謹慎，降價購買等等。您如何看待該地區這一年的發展？

So I think I agree with everything you just said, Ghansham. I think beer has been exceptionally weak to start the year in Europe. Let's put the earthquake in Turkey aside. Let's just deal with the balance of Europe. And for the most part, we're on the perimeter. We're not really up through the center of the heart of Europe. So when we say the perimeter, we mean U.K., Spain, Italy, Greece, et cetera. So -- but beer has been exceptionally weak. I think the consumer, specifically the U.K. consumer, is struggling with food inflation the rate of inflation and the size of inflation over the last couple of years for food in the U.K. is exceptionally high.

所以我想我同意你剛才所說的一切，Ghansham。我認為歐洲的啤酒今年年初表現異常疲軟。我們先把土耳其地震放在一邊。讓我們只處理歐洲的平衡問題。大多數情況下，我們都在外圍。我們並沒有真正到達歐洲的心臟地帶。因此，當我們說周長時，我們指的是英國、西班牙、意大利、希臘等。所以——但啤酒的表現異常疲軟。我認為消費者，特別是英國消費者，正在與食品通脹作鬥爭。過去幾年英國食品的通脹率和通脹規模異常高。

And then lastly, as I pointed out, we are seeing customers trying to defer their purchases of cans as long as they can closer to the summer to manage their own working capital and their own interest costs. But so putting all that aside, I do think we're going to have a reasonable summer. We'll cycle through this working capital issue, and we'll have a reasonable summer. We'll see if we have enough -- if they try to buy all the cans in the summer that they should have bought some in February, March and April, they wait to buy them all.

最後，正如我所指出的，我們看到客戶試圖推遲購買罐頭，只要他們能夠在接近夏季的時候管理自己的營運資金和利息成本。但拋開所有這些，我確實認為我們將會度過一個合理的夏天。我們將循環解決這個營運資金問題，我們將度過一個合理的夏天。我們會看看我們是否有足夠的——如果他們試圖在夏天購買所有他們應該在二月、三月和四月購買的罐頭，他們就會等待全部購買。

We'll see if we have enough hands for all of them, but it should be a reasonable summer through the end of the third quarter. We're going to do -- let's be clear. The most important thing that we were looking to accomplish this year in Europe was to adjust the contracts to appropriately recover our costs and derisk our position in the contract. We don't sell to the consumer. We do not have any pricing power with the consumer. We need to get it from our customers or we don't get it. And I think we've accomplished that.

我們將看看我們是否有足夠的人手來應對所有這些人，但到第三季度末這應該是一個合理的夏天。我們要做的——讓我們說清楚。今年我們在歐洲希望完成的最重要的事情是調整合同，以適當收回我們的成本並消除我們在合同中的地位風險。我們不賣給消費者。我們對消費者沒有任何定價權。我們需要從客戶那裡得到它，否則我們就得不到。我認為我們已經做到了這一點。

So the first goal is to make money. Well, the first goal is obviously to serve your customers. The second goal is to make money. And if we don't make money, we're not going to be good with the first goal. So I think we've accomplished adjusting the contracts. We're going to have a good year despite whatever the volume happens here.

所以首要目標就是賺錢。嗯，第一個目標顯然是為您的客戶提供服務。第二個目標是賺錢。如果我們不賺錢，我們就無法實現第一個目標。所以我認為我們已經完成了合同調整。不管這裡的銷量如何，我們都會度過美好的一年。

Okay. Got it. And then for my second question, going back to North America. I mean, obviously, 1Q is a very small quarter. There's a lot of complexity on the horizon, et cetera, as it relates to the outlook for the consumer in the U.S. Are customers -- have they rebased our expectations for volumes just based on your conversations with them for 2023 relative to initial plan? Or did they see the year sort of unfolding pretty much in line at this point?

好的。知道了。然後我的第二個問題，回到北美。我的意思是，顯然，第一季度是一個非常小的季度。即將出現很多複雜的情況，等等，因為這關係到美國消費者的前景。客戶是否僅僅根據您與他們的對話，相對於最初的計劃，重新確定了我們對 2023 年銷量的預期？或者他們認為這一年的發展在這一點上幾乎是一致的？

Yes. So I think if they were being honest, they may tell us that they oversourced cans among Crown and the other can suppliers. I think we kind of feel we know where they're at. But again, it's largely dependent upon promotions, right? We've seen some promotions but few and far between and not at levels, which drive the consumer to stock up on cans and consume more of the products that our customers are selling. So they are -- as they were last year, they are -- I don't know if they're satisfied, but they're reporting lower volumes and higher profits, and that's a formula that works.

是的。因此，我認為，如果他們誠實的話，他們可能會告訴我們，他們在皇冠和其他罐頭供應商中過度採購了罐頭。我想我們感覺我們知道他們在哪裡。但同樣，這在很大程度上取決於促銷，對吧？我們已經看到了一些促銷活動，但數量很少，而且幅度不大，這促使消費者囤積罐頭並消費更多我們客戶銷售的產品。所以他們——就像去年一樣——我不知道他們是否滿意，但他們報告的銷量較低，利潤較高，這是一個有效的公式。

So we understand that. We understood it as the year unfolded last year, we understood it better, and we understand it from where we're at today. So we have to deal with that changing dynamic in our end markets.

所以我們理解這一點。我們從去年開始就理解了這一點，我們更好地理解了它，我們從今天的情況也理解了它。因此，我們必須應對終端市場不斷變化的動態。

The next question comes from the line of Mike Leithead from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Great. First question, Tim, just 2 real quick on North American beverage. First, can you just talk about what gives you confidence in the summer promotional activity hopefully occurring in this year versus not really occurring last year? And second, do you still expect to be up 10% in North America this year?

偉大的。第一個問題，蒂姆，我想簡單介紹一下北美飲料。首先，您能否談談是什麼讓您對今年有望發生的夏季促銷活動（而不是去年真正發生的活動）充滿信心？其次，您預計今年北美市場的漲幅是否仍為 10%？

Well, I think what we said, Mike, was that if the market is flat, we will be up 10%. And I think we were pretty clear that if the market is down, we probably don't make 10%. If the market's up, we're probably a little better than 10%. So let's see where the market takes us. We were always more heavily weighted in volume growth towards the second and third quarters as more capacity came up. So I don't think we're behind our original expectations with 4% in Q1. Although we're going to need to see some promotions to drive more sales at the retail level.

邁克，我認為我們所說的是，如果市場持平，我們將上漲 10%。我認為我們非常清楚，如果市場下跌，我們可能賺不到 10%。如果市場上漲，我們的收益可能會略高於 10%。因此，讓我們看看市場將我們帶向何方。隨著產能的增加，我們在第二季度和第三季度的銷量增長中始終佔據更大的權重。因此，我認為第一季度的增長 4% 並沒有落後於我們最初的預期。儘管我們需要看到一些促銷活動來推動零售層面的更多銷售。

And your confidence in promotional activity, or maybe it's from customer conversation......

還有你對促銷活動的信心，或者也許是來自於與客戶的對話……

I'm not confident because they have their own business model, and it's not for me to describe where -- well, I can describe, I guess, I don't really understand it as well as they do. They understand their business model better than I do and what they understand better than I do is the consumer. So I wouldn't say I'm confident, I'm optimistic that they will look to drive more volume. But there's -- somewhere in between those 2 words, there's a difference, optimistic and confidence.

我不自信，因為他們有自己的商業模式，這不是我能描述的——好吧，我可以描述，我想，我並不像他們那樣理解它。他們比我更了解他們的商業模式，他們比我更了解消費者。所以我不會說我有信心，我對他們將尋求增加銷量持樂觀態度。但是，在這兩個詞之間，有一個區別：樂觀和自信。

The next question comes from the line of George Staphos from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的喬治·斯塔福斯。

This is actually [Kash] sitting in for George this morning. Just going off some of the prior questions. I guess, is there a way to discuss the exit rate on volume and margin coming out of 1Q, particularly in the regions where you have some pricing resets?

這實際上是[卡什]今天早上代替喬治做的。只是解決一些之前的問題。我想，有沒有辦法討論第一季度的銷量和利潤退出率，特別是在定價重置的地區？

Yes. So I think if we look at North America, January and February were better than March. And as we sit here today in April, April is not very strong either. So that's why I said earlier, we're going to need to see some promotions as we get to the first couple of weeks of May through the first couple of weeks of June. I think Europe is starting to -- exceptionally weak in January, February, looked better in March, and I think we expect Europe to be a little better as we -- each month as we go through.

是的。所以我認為，如果我們看看北美，一月和二月的情況要好於三月。當我們今天坐在這裡的四月時，四月也不是很強勁。這就是為什麼我之前說過，從五月的前幾周到六月的前幾週，我們需要看到一些促銷活動。我認為歐洲正在開始——一月、二月特別疲軟，三月看起來更好，而且我認為我們預計歐洲會比我們每個月都好一點。

Brazil, they're going into their winter months. So you would naturally expect Brazil to be a little softer. But we had a -- the market in Brazil in Q1 and '22 was down like 25%. So it was an easy comp. So -- and then the markets in Asia are all different. I think, as I said earlier, we'll -- with the exception of Cambodia, we expect most of the markets to regain some strength towards the end of the second quarter.

巴西，他們即將進入冬季。所以你自然會期望巴西會軟一些。但巴西市場在第一季度和 22 年下降了 25%。所以這是一個簡單的比較。所以，亞洲的市場都是不同的。我認為，正如我之前所說，除柬埔寨外，我們預計大多數市場將在第二季度末恢復一些實力。

Got it. Appreciate that color. And then just, I guess, given you exceeded the top end of your guidance for the first quarter, I mean, ultimately, why are you keeping kind of the full year EPS guide here? And what ultimately gives you confidence on that?

知道了。欣賞那個顏色。然後，我想，鑑於您超出了第一季度指導的上限，我的意思是，最終，您為什麼要在這裡保留全年每股收益指導？最終是什麼讓您對此充滿信心？

Well, I think you put a forecast together for the full year, there's a lot of moving parts, and we're more than just 1 business in 1 geography, right? We have a number of businesses which we believe serve the company and the shareholders well in terms of balancing out risk and generating significant cash flow as opposed to being too reliant on 1 product, which may be too up or too down in any 1 period.

好吧，我認為你對全年進行了預測，有很多變化的部分，而且我們不僅僅是 1 個地區的 1 家企業，對吧？我們相信，我們擁有許多業務，在平衡風險和產生大量現金流方面能夠很好地為公司和股東服務，而不是過於依賴一種產品，該產品在任何一個時期內可能會過度上漲或過度下跌。

Having said that, we've just spent the last 20 minutes discussing our expectation, now our confidence level in promotional activity in the largest market we're in, and a little early in the year to really step out and raise the forecast. So as I said, until we see some indication of larger promotional activity in the North American market, just too early to adjust the forecast. We'll get a chance to do that again in July if we have to.

話雖如此，我們剛剛花了最後 20 分鐘討論我們的預期，現在我們對我們所在的最大市場的促銷活動的信心水平，並在今年早些時候真正邁出一步並提高預測。正如我所說，在我們看到北美市場出現更大規模促銷活動的跡象之前，調整預測還為時過早。如果有必要的話，我們將有機會在七月再次這樣做。

The next question comes from the line of Phil Ng from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

Tim, sorry, I missed the part of the first part of the call, I had some technical issues. But did you give us an update on your outlook for volumes for the various markets for 2023? You sound optimistic, but obviously, volumes are a little softer to start the year. How do you manage that risk? I know 3Q last year was a big surprise in terms of how demand kind of fell off and you had excess inventory and costs. Like how are you kind of better managing that in a very choppy demand backdrop?

蒂姆，抱歉，我錯過了通話第一部分的部分，我遇到了一些技術問題。但您是否向我們介紹了 2023 年各個市場銷量展望的最新情況？您聽起來很樂觀，但顯然，今年年初的銷量有點疲軟。您如何管理該風險？我知道去年第三季度的需求下降以及庫存和成本過剩是一個很大的驚喜。比如，在需求波動很大的背景下，您如何更好地管理這一點？

Yes. Listen, Phil, the first thing I'll say, not to be defensive, but I may be defensive. Volume in the third quarter fell off, but it fell off for the entire industry, not just for Crown, right? And I don't think we're the only...

是的。聽著，菲爾，我要說的第一件事是，不要防守，但我可能會防守。第三季度的銷量有所下降，但整個行業的銷量都在下降，而不僅僅是皇冠，對嗎？而且我不認為我們是唯一...

100% agree.

100%同意。

We aren't the only guys to misunderstand that. Having said that, if I sound optimistic -- okay. Optimistic is, as we said earlier, optimistic is different than confident. I'm optimistic because it's -- it'd be very difficult to run a business if you weren't optimistic. They're so many good people in the organization working too hard and doing too many good things. And our customers are some really good people that are promoting their products and doing some really good things.

我們並不是唯一誤解這一點的人。話雖如此，如果我聽起來很樂觀的話——好吧。正如我們之前所說，樂觀與自信不同。我很樂觀，因為如果你不樂觀，經營一家企業就會非常困難。組織中有很多優秀的人，他們工作太努力，做了太多好事。我們的客戶都是一些非常好的人，他們正在推廣他們的產品並做了一些真正的好事。

So you always remain optimistic that we're going to find the right formula between price and volume, and we're going to drive more volume, which benefits our business. And the customers are going to find a way to mix the price and volume to drive their business. And -- but the year is not without risk. As we just said to the last question, why haven't we raised guidance? Well, because the year is not without risk. But I think -- as I said, I think we expect -- in Asia, we expect the market to turn the corner late in the second quarter into the third quarter.

因此，您始終保持樂觀態度，認為我們將找到價格和銷量之間的正確公式，並且我們將推動更多銷量，這對我們的業務有利。客戶將找到一種將價格和銷量結合起來的方法來推動他們的業務。而且——但今年並非沒有風險。正如我們剛才對最後一個問題所說，為什麼我們沒有提出指導意見？嗯，因為今年並非沒有風險。但我認為——正如我所說，我認為我們預計——在亞洲，我們預計市場將在第二季度末到第三季度出現轉機。

I think Brazil -- fortunately for us, the customer bankruptcy that occurred happened at the end of March. So they'll have the winter months that are typically the slower selling months to work through their issues, their prepetition and get everything resolved before they get into the heavier requirements that they may have in late in the third quarter, fourth quarter ahead of Carnival. So that's helpful in Brazil. And I think we have a pretty well-balanced portfolio in Brazil. We have a variety of customers. We're not weighted towards 1 customer. So we're still confident in Brazil. We're going to have a year-over-year increase in Brazil.

我認為巴西——對我們來說幸運的是，客戶破產發生在三月底。因此，他們將在通常是銷售較慢的冬季月份來解決他們的問題、準備工作並解決所有問題，然後再進入第三季度末、第四季度狂歡節之前可能遇到的更重的要求。 。所以這對巴西很有幫助。我認為我們在巴西擁有相當平衡的投資組合。我們有各種各樣的客戶。我們不偏向 1 個客戶。所以我們對巴西還是有信心的。我們在巴西的銷量將同比增長。

Europe, I think we're going to start to see volumes firm up. It was exceptionally weak in January and February. It got a little better in March, but albeit still down. But I think you're going to start to see customers pulling more volume, and we'll get into the summer tourism season, and we should do quite well.

歐洲，我認為我們將開始看到銷量堅挺。一月和二月特別疲軟。 3月份情況有所好轉，但仍然下降。但我認為你將開始看到客戶拉動更多的銷量，我們將進入夏季旅遊旺季，我們應該做得很好。

North -- brings us back to North America, which is the one that you all care so much about and focus on so much. Listen, I said earlier, we're -- in a flat market, we're up 10%. I could -- I drive a pretty old car, but I'll bet my car on that. But if the market is not flat, we're not going to be up 10%. And so we'll see where the market takes us. We're going to do better than the market, but that doesn't give me any great comfort. I'd like to see some promotional activity. So we'll see. I think it's just too early to say what the fillers are going to do with promotions, we'll know better in a few weeks.

北方——讓我們回到北美，這是你們都非常關心和關注的地區。聽著，我之前說過，在市場平穩的情況下，我們上漲了 10%。我可以——我開一輛很舊的車，但我會用我的車打賭。但如果市場不平穩，我們就不會上漲 10%。因此，我們將看看市場將我們帶向何方。我們會做得比市場更好，但這並沒有給我帶來任何很大的安慰。我想看看一些促銷活動。所以我們拭目以待。我認為現在說填充物將如何進行促銷還為時過早，幾週後我們就會知道得更多。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then from a cost standpoint, you called out [$60 million] still headwind in 1Q. Is that largely flushed out by 2Q? And I know late last year, you had some high-cost inventory in the international markets for (inaudible). I just want to make sure if that's flushed out at this point in the year as well.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後從成本的角度來看，您稱第一季度仍處於不利地位 [6000 萬美元]。到第二季度就基本消失了嗎？我知道去年年底，國際市場上有一些高成本庫存（聽不清）。我只是想確定這一點是否在今年的這個時候也被淘汰了。

Yes. So I mean, obviously, anything that was left in Europe got flush through with the repricing of contracts, and you saw those numbers looking better than Q3 and Q4 last year. Asia probably had a handful in the first quarter, but that's done. And then we still probably have a handful in the other businesses, the North American tinplate businesses, which will come through here in the second quarter, and that will be behind us.

是的。所以我的意思是，顯然，歐洲剩下的任何東西都隨著合同的重新定價而完成，你會看到這些數字看起來比去年第三季度和第四季度要好。亞洲在第一季度可能有一些，但那已經過去了。然後，我們在其他業務中可能仍然有少數，北美馬口鐵業務，這些業務將在第二季度完成，這將在我們身後。

The next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Gabe Hajde。

I wanted to dial in to Brazil, I guess, first. You mentioned up 23% versus down 25% last year. So let's call it, you're kind of back to flat base.

我想，我想先撥通巴西。您提到增長了 23%，而去年則下降了 25%。這麼說吧，你又回到了平底狀態。

Well, I said the market was down 25%. I think we were down 20% last year, up 23% this year. So more or less in line with 2 years ago. You're right.

嗯，我說市場下跌了 25%。我認為我們去年下降了 20%，今年增長了 23%。所以或多或少與2年前一致。你說得對。

Okay. And we have this customer issue down there. It seems like most of your customers are still pushing a decent amount of price, at least from what we can ascertain and the consumer is a little bit pressured. But I wasn't clear, Tim, about your expectations, I guess, for the market down there. Do you see that evolving? And I appreciate that we're really talking about September, October summer selling season and what your customers choose to do. But is it possible that we have 2 years of -- 2 consecutive years of down demand in Brazil for and...

好的。我們在那裡遇到了這個客戶問題。看來您的大多數客戶仍在推高價格，至少從我們可以確定的情況來看，並且消費者有點壓力。但我不清楚，蒂姆，你對那里市場的期望。你看到這種情況在演變嗎？我很高興我們真正談論的是九月、十月夏季銷售季節以及您的客戶選擇做什麼。但巴西的需求是否有可能連續兩年下降……

Anything's possible. I mean you're in an environment where unemployment and inflation are high and interest rates are high, and anything is possible. I think our estimate for Brazil is they're up a couple of percentage points for the full year, which means sequentially as we go through the year here, they'll come off the large increase in Q1 and be a little lower. Now I think we were up much more than the market in Q1, and that has to do with mix of customers versus specifically being weighted to 1 or 2 customers as some of the others were. But I think in total, we still expect to be up in Brazil.

一切皆有可能。我的意思是，你正處於一個失業率和通貨膨脹率很高、利率很高的環境中，一切皆有可能。我認為我們對巴西的估計是全年增長幾個百分點，這意味著隨著我們在這裡度過這一年，它們將擺脫第一季度的大幅增長，並略有下降。現在我認為我們在第一季度的漲幅比市場要高得多，這與客戶的混合有關，而不是像其他一些客戶那樣專門權衡 1 或 2 個客戶。但我認為總的來說，我們仍然預計在巴西會有所上升。

The market will be up a couple of percent, 2% to 3% in our view at this point. We should be up more than that. But anything is possible, Gabe. I mean it's a growing market, and it's a big market. We and others have done exceptionally well over time there, and we remain invested. And we continue to expect that market will do well in the future.

我們認為目前市場將上漲幾個百分點，2% 到 3%。我們應該比這更多。但一切皆有可能，加布。我的意思是這是一個不斷增長的市場，而且是一個很大的市場。隨著時間的推移，我們和其他人在那裡做得非常好，並且我們仍然投入。我們仍然預計未來市場將表現良好。

Understood. But is there anything you need to -- Crown's system, again, depending on whatever the outcome is with this 1 specific customer that would make you advantage or disadvantage to service other customers down in Brazil to capture that growth.

明白了。但是，您是否需要做任何事情 - 皇冠的系統，再次取決於該特定客戶的結果，這將使您在為巴西的其他客戶提供服務以實現增長時處於優勢或劣勢。

Listen, I think most of the business in Brazil is under contract. I don't really want to describe the other guys, but what I said is we have an exceptionally well-balanced customer portfolio in Brazil. So to the extent that if the customer who filed bankruptcy, loses a little bit of volume and it gets picked up by others, we'll get some share of the -- that the others pick up.

聽著，我認為巴西的大部分業務都是簽訂合同的。我不想描述其他人，但我想說的是，我們在巴西擁有非常平衡的客戶組合。因此，如果申請破產的客戶損失了一點銷量，並且被其他人接手，我們將獲得其他人接手的一些份額。

So we'll lose some share of what the bankrupt customer loses in the marketplace, and we'll pick up some share of what the others pick up. So I don't -- there is -- in our forecast, as I said in the prepared remarks, we did adjust our full year sales forecast in Brazil and income accordingly to account for the customer bankruptcy and for what we believe is a reasonable time to work -- for them to work through their issues. We'll lose some, and we'll pick them up. As it relates specifically to that customer pluses and minus, maybe we're a little bit on the minus side, but we still expect to be up more than the market for the year.

因此，我們將失去破產客戶在市場上損失的一些份額，而我們將從其他人獲得的東西中獲得一些份額。因此，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，在我們的預測中，我們確實相應地調整了巴西的全年銷售預測和收入，以考慮到客戶破產以及我們認為合理的情況。工作時間——讓他們解決問題。我們會失去一些，但我們會撿起它們。由於它與客戶的優點和缺點特別相關，也許我們有點偏於缺點，但我們仍然預計今年的漲幅將超過市場。

Okay. On Transit, you talked about having other diversified businesses. You guys crossed it relative to our model. The $60 million of cost out that you talked about, you're still on track for that apparently or are you ahead of that pace a little bit here to start the year? And then could you be a little more specific on the volumes? I think you talked about pruning some lower margin business and something to the effect of volumes were down commensurate (inaudible).

好的。在 Transit 上，您談到了其他多元化業務。你們相對於我們的模型交叉了它。您談到的 6000 萬美元的成本支出，您顯然仍在實現這一目標，還是您在今年年初就已經領先了一點？那麼您能更具體地介紹一下卷數嗎？我認為您談到了修剪一些利潤率較低的業務，並且銷量相應下降（聽不清）。

So I think -- I don't know if we said it, we probably realized $10 million or $12 million of the $60 million last year. We'll get -- let's say, we get another $40 million this year and maybe there's a little bit $5 million or so spills into next year, but we are well ahead of our target to get the full $60 million. And that's going exceptionally well. And combined with that, we went through a process to reorganize those products, which we believe were the products we wanted to sell versus just trying to make everything for everybody. And so I think if volumes were down 10% to 12%. In Q1, I'd say 1/3 of that was due to pruning of customers and SKUs and 2/3 of that was market.

所以我想——我不知道我們是否說過，去年我們可能實現了 6000 萬美元中的 1000 萬美元或 1200 萬美元。我們會——比方說，今年我們會再獲得 4000 萬美元，也許明年還會有 500 萬美元左右的資金溢出，但我們遠遠領先於獲得全額 6000 萬美元的目標。進展非常順利。與此相結合，我們經歷了一個重新組織這些產品的過程，我們相信這些產品是我們想要銷售的產品，而不是試圖為每個人製造一切。所以我認為如果銷量下降 10% 到 12%。在第一季度，我想說其中 1/3 是由於客戶和 SKU 的修剪，其中 2/3 是由於市場。

The next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari from Citi Group.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Anthony Pettinari。

It's actually Bryan Burgmeier filling in for Anthony. Maybe just big picture, it seems like the theme of this call has been volume is a little bit worse than expected. You called out the customer issue in Brazil. Maybe what are some of the better-than-expected items that have allowed you to reiterate the guide for the full year. Is it solely the 1Q be? Is there maybe a little bit of upside to Europe? If you can just maybe hit out some of those big picture things that allow you to keep the guidance.

實際上是布萊恩·伯格梅爾（Bryan Burgmeier）頂替了安東尼。也許只是大局，看來這次電話會議的主題是音量比預期的要差一點。您指出了巴西的客戶問題。也許有哪些好於預期的項目讓您能夠重申全年指南。僅僅是第一季度嗎？歐洲可能有一點好處嗎？如果你可以的話，也許可以提出一些讓你保持指導的大局。

Yes. So Bryan, that's a good question. And whether in the prepared remarks or to this point in the call, if we haven't made this clear, I apologize. But we are doing much better in Europe in Transit, not only in the first quarter, but our outlook for the full year for Europe in Transit better than we initially anticipated when we put the budget together and communicated to you in February. We've obviously adjusted, as I said earlier, our sales forecast for Brazil, and a bigger slowdown in Asia than we expected.

是的。布萊恩，這是一個很好的問題。無論是在準備好的發言中還是在通話中，如果我們沒有明確說明這一點，我深表歉意。但我們在歐洲運輸方面的表現要好得多，不僅是在第一季度，而且我們對歐洲運輸全年的展望也比我們在 2 月份匯總預算並與大家溝通時的最初預期要好。正如我之前所說，我們顯然已經調整了對巴西的銷售預測，並且亞洲的銷售放緩幅度超出了我們的預期。

And so they are offsets as well as we've made a little hedge in our internal guidance as it relates promotional activity here in North America.

因此，它們是抵消，我們在內部指導中做了一些對沖，因為它與北美的促銷活動有關。

So -- but I would say the -- all of the negatives are -- Kevin doesn't give us off COVID, we'll be talking to you again in July. But Kevin is doing his best to try to kill us here. I apologize for that. All of that, all of the three negatives that I described more than offset by the improved results that we see continuing in Europe in Transit over the original forecast.

所以——但我想說的是——所有的負面因素是——凱文沒有向我們透露新冠病毒，我們將在七月再次與你交談。但凱文正在竭盡全力試圖殺死我們。我對此表示歉意。所有這一切，我所描述的所有三個負面因素都被我們看到的歐洲交通運輸比最初預測持續改善的結果所抵消。

Got it. That's really helpful. And maybe just zooming in on Europe a little bit. You mentioned volumes have been firming up. I think on the last call, you said margins for '23 could get back to half of the '21 level? Is there a new target that we should have in mind? Is it maybe just too early in the year to update that?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。也許只是稍微放大一下歐洲。您提到成交量一直在堅挺。我想在上次電話會議上，您說過 23 年的利潤率可能會回到 21 年水平的一半？我們是否應該考慮一個新的目標？今年更新這個可能還為時過早嗎？

No, it's not too early, and I knew somebody was going to bring this up. And so why don't we say -- instead of halfway back, why don't we say 75% of the way back. We're going to do a lot better in Europe than we initially anticipated. .

不，現在還不算太早，我知道有人會提出這個問題。那麼為什麼我們不說——而不是半途返回，為什麼我們不說 75% 的返回呢？我們在歐洲的表現將比我們最初預期的要好得多。 。

The team did an exceptional job. So again, as I said earlier -- and not to sound whatever it sounds like, but the goal is to -- we've got to make money, right? The goal is to make money. And the only way to do that is to properly price. So I think the team did an excellent job redoing the contracts and it's important that they were redone. We're putting a lot of money into the system into Europe and into the Americas to support our customers' growing needs in the future. We need to make sure we're healthy enough to do that in the future. And I think the team did an excellent job.

該團隊做得非常出色。再說一次，正如我之前所說的——並不是聽起來像什麼，但我們的目標是——我們必須賺錢，對吧？目標是賺錢。而做到這一點的唯一方法就是適當定價。所以我認為團隊在重做合同方面做得非常出色，重做合同很重要。我們正在歐洲和美洲的系統中投入大量資金，以支持客戶未來不斷增長的需求。我們需要確保我們足夠健康，以便將來能夠做到這一點。我認為團隊做得非常出色。

The next question comes from the line of Mike Roxland from Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Just one quick question, Tim, for you. Can you mind talking about the competitive landscape? And have you seen any increased pricing actions, maybe discounting maybe from some of your larger private peers, particularly as their balance sheets have become increasingly stretched?

蒂姆，我只想問你一個簡單的問題。您能介意談談競爭格局嗎？您是否看到任何增加的定價行為，也許是來自一些較大的私人同行的折扣，特別是在他們的資產負債表變得越來越緊張的情況下？

Well, I think you're specifically talking about one competitor only, although you could consider the other one a private company as well, even though they're public. I think the one company is used to operating with leverage. The other one, the more private one that you're alluding to, is used to operating with far less leverage, and they've communicated that they want to get their leverage down.

好吧，我認為您只是專門談論一個競爭對手，儘管您也可以將另一家公司視為私營公司，即使它們是上市公司。我認為一家公司習慣於利用槓桿進行運營。另一家，即您所提到的更為私密的一家，習慣於以低得多的槓桿率進行運營，並且他們已表示希望降低杠桿率。

So many -- as we said to you in February -- I believe we said to you in February, so many of the contracts -- so much of the business is under contract for the next several years. We don't see large pricing risk over the next couple of years, albeit the marginal business is obviously going to become more competitive as the market is a little bit slower than it was 2 years ago. So we'll just see where that takes us.

如此之多——正如我們在二月份對你們所說的——我相信我們在二月份對你們說過的，如此之多的合同——如此多的業務在未來幾年都簽訂了合同。我們認為未來幾年不會出現大的定價風險，儘管邊際業務顯然會變得更具競爭力，因為市場比兩年前要慢一些。所以我們就看看這會帶我們去哪裡。

Got you. And can you -- any way to quantify, like when you say the marginal business become more competitive. How much of your book roughly is that marginal business? Or just broadly up percent just to get a sense of so much -- is 85%, 90% of the contract and 10% qualifies marginal that could become more competitive?

明白你了。你可以用任何方式來量化，就像你說邊際業務變得更具競爭力一樣。你的書中大約有多少內容是邊際業務？或者只是粗略地提高百分比只是為了了解這麼多 - 85%、90% 的合同和 10% 的資格邊際是否可以變得更具競爭力？

Yes. I think there -- that's not too -- without getting too specific, that's not too unreasonable.

是的。我認為，這並不算太具體，這也不算太不合理。

Okay. Got you. Appreciate that. And just one quick follow-up on the bankruptcy issue in Brazil. Just can you provide some more color on that customer? And what gives you the confidence that you should be able to recoup most of the receivables that you have outstanding with them?

好的。明白你了。感謝。這只是巴西破產問題的一個快速後續行動。您能為該客戶提供更多信息嗎？是什麼讓您有信心能夠收回大部分未清應收賬款？

So we have registered collateral in one of their large new breweries, land and building. So I don't really want to talk about what the customer is going to do. They haven't filed their plan yet. But a variety of things can happen when they file their plan. They can try to run the business as is going concern. They can sell 1 or 2 breweries. They can sell the whole company. There's a variety of things they can do. We believe that large new brewery where we have collateral is a brewery that they or somebody else will be more than happy to run and make beer in. So our hope is that they remain an independent-going concern, and we have a broader customer base that we continue to supply in the market. We'll see where it goes. But I think from a collateral standpoint, as I said, we have comfort where we sit right now.

因此，我們在他們的一家大型新啤酒廠、土地和建築物中註冊了抵押品。所以我真的不想談論客戶要做什麼。他們還沒有提交計劃。但當他們提交計劃時，可能會發生各種各樣的事情。他們可以嘗試按照持續經營的方式經營業務。他們可以出售 1 或 2 家啤酒廠。他們可以出售整個公司。他們可以做各種各樣的事情。我們相信，我們擁有抵押品的大型新啤酒廠是他們或其他人會非常樂意經營和生產啤酒的啤酒廠。因此，我們希望他們仍然是一家獨立的企業，並且我們擁有更廣泛的客戶群我們繼續在市場上供應。我們會看看它會去哪裡。但我認為，從附帶的角度來看，正如我所說，我們現在坐的位置很舒服。

The next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo。

I just wanted to follow up on the strength that you're seeing in Transit. In particular, you updated on what you're seeing now in Europe and how that -- maybe has impacted your outlook for Transit, I think you talked about mid- to single-digit improvement year-over-year. in terms of earnings. Could you just update us on what that kind of looks like based on the strength that you're seeing for 2023?

我只是想跟進您在 Transit 中看到的實力。特別是，您更新了您現在在歐洲看到的情況以及這可能如何影響您對交通的前景，我認為您談到了同比中位數到個位數的改善。就收入而言。您能否根據您所看到的 2023 年的強勁勢頭向我們介紹一下最新情況？

You're talking about Transit in total or specific to Europe?

您是在談論整個交通還是特定於歐洲的交通？

Transit in total. Sorry.

總計過境。對不起。

Okay. I'm sorry. The only thing I was going to say is Europe is a smaller part of the business. But I think currently, what we're seeing is commodity volumes a little softer. I think we still expect commodity volumes to pick up off of easier comps when we get to Q3 and Q4. Equipment volumes currently pretty strong.

好的。對不起。我唯一想說的是，歐洲只佔業務的一小部分。但我認為目前我們看到的是大宗商品數量略有疲軟。我認為，當我們進入第三季度和第四季度時，我們仍然預計大宗商品銷量將從較容易的比較中回升。目前設備數量相當強勁。

The order book is still really healthy, more than 1 year sales in the backlog. The tools are a little soft right now, but we expect that to pick up. So that's the volume picture. I think the more important thing is we are well ahead of plan, as I said earlier, on the cost out. And from a material margin standpoint, we're managing very well raw material inputs and pricing to the customer.

訂單仍然非常健康，積壓的銷售量超過一年。目前這些工具有點軟，但我們預計這種情況會有所改善。這就是體積圖片。我認為更重要的是，正如我之前所說，在成本方面，我們遠遠超出了計劃。從材料利潤的角度來看，我們對原材料投入和客戶定價進行了很好的管理。

And so the business, Angel, I'm glad you brought it up, because the business largely described by many as cyclical. Some of the end markets it supplies are no doubt cyclical. This business is so diverse. It's remarkably stable. And with the exception of the COVID year in 2020, if you adjust for currency, with almost no capital invested each year or this business have been remarkably stable since we acquired it. And this year, we'll do quite well.

所以，天使，我很高興你提出這個問題，因為這個行業在很大程度上被許多人描述為周期性的。它提供的一些終端市場無疑是周期性的。這個業務是如此多樣化。它非常穩定。除了 2020 年的新冠疫情年份之外，如果根據貨幣進行調整，每年幾乎沒有資本投資，或者自我們收購以來這項業務一直非常穩定。今年，我們會做得很好。

My sense is that if you adjust for currency and the divestiture of the business that we had last year that by the end of this year, we're up 10% over what the income was 2 years ago. So it's -- that's adjusted for currency. So obviously, currency has an impact. But I think the business is stable, and the cash flows that it generates are remarkable for the level of capital required to be invested.

我的感覺是，如果根據匯率和去年我們剝離的業務進行調整，到今年年底，我們的收入將比兩年前增長 10%。所以這是根據貨幣進行調整的。顯然，貨幣有影響。但我認為該業務很穩定，其產生的現金流相對於所需投資的資本水平而言是顯著的。

So it is a contributor to the company. It's a contributor to delevering, a contributor to return of cash to shareholders. So I think we're really positive on where the business sits today. We've got a new management team since last year in the third quarter. And a lot of changes, and I think there's even more improvement that we can make in the business.

所以它是公司的貢獻者。它是去槓桿化的貢獻者，是向股東返還現金的貢獻者。所以我認為我們對目前的業務狀況非常樂觀。自去年第三季度以來，我們有了一個新的管理團隊。還有很多變化，我認為我們可以在業務方面做出更多改進。

Very helpful. And then I just wanted to touch on (inaudible) allocation, given the amount of uncertainty and how much maybe edges on what happens in time half, I recognize there may be some limitations as to what you can say. But I think in the past, you've talked about leverage and perhaps returning cash to shareholders once you get into that 3 to 3.5x kind of net leverage range. Given the uncertainty, would you want to be more solidly kind of at the lower end of that? Or once we reach the 3.5 turns, should we anticipate that free cash flow will start to flow through to buybacks and returning cash to shareholders? How are you kind of thinking about that from a risk standpoint?

很有幫助。然後我只是想談談（聽不清）分配問題，考慮到不確定性以及一半時間內發生的事情可能有多少邊緣，我認識到你可以說的可能有一些限制。但我認為在過去，您談到了槓桿，一旦您進入 3 至 3.5 倍的淨槓桿範圍，也許就會向股東返還現金。考慮到不確定性，你想在低端表現得更加紮實嗎？或者，一旦達到 3.5 倍，我們是否應該預期自由現金流將開始流向回購併向股東返還現金？從風險的角度來看，您對此有何看法？

I think given where the financing markets are generally. And that means the rate of what it's going to cost us to refinance, coupled with an incredible number of issuers that have to refinance over the next couple of years that we'd be well served to be towards the lower end of that range that we previously discussed.

我認為考慮到融資市場的總體狀況。這意味著我們再融資的成本率，再加上未來幾年必須再融資的發行人數量令人難以置信，我們最好能達到我們預期的範圍的下限。之前討論過。

So I think Kevin made it -- said in his prepared remarks that we're going to apply cash generated this year with delevering, and we'll pick up next year and see where we go. We do have a bond that comes due in September of '24. Having said that, we can meet that with internal cash flow. But when you think about the refinancing towers that we and others have over the next couple of years, and it would be prudent to be at the lower end of that range.

所以我認為凱文做到了——在他準備好的講話中表示，我們將利用今年產生的現金進行去槓桿化，明年我們將繼續前進，看看我們會走向何方。我們確實有一筆債券將於 2024 年 9 月到期。話雖如此，我們可以通過內部現金流來滿足這一點。但是，當你考慮我們和其他人在未來幾年內擁有的再融資塔時，謹慎的做法是處於該範圍的下限。

Now that's one answer. The other answer is that based on where interest rates are today, the accretion dilution analysis is much closer on paying down debt versus buying back stock than it has been in the past when rates were well below historical norms.

現在這就是一個答案。另一個答案是，根據目前的利率水平，與過去利率遠低於歷史正常水平時相比，增值稀釋分析更接近於償還債務與回購股票。

The next question comes from the line of Kyle White from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的凱爾·懷特。

I think last quarter, the beverage cans business, you were cycling through some lower cost absorption in some of the regions given planned inventory reductions. I think it was mostly in Europe and Asia Pacific. Is this behind you? Or do you have inventory as well as now where you would like?

我認為上個季度，飲料罐業務，由於計劃減少庫存，一些地區的成本吸收率較低。我認為主要是在歐洲和亞太地區。這是你身後嗎？或者您現在有庫存嗎？

I think with the exception of Asia, we're where we'd like to be. As we described earlier, Asia came out of Chinese New Year. The customers came out with far too much filled good inventory, and we still have a little bit too much inventory in Asia that we're working aggressively to bring down. So there will be some absorption and shortfall in Q2. That's why I earlier said that, Asia, we expect to be more or less -- well, I don't want to say on top of, but more or less close to last year in total for the year, but weighted towards the back half of the year.

我認為除了亞洲以外，我們已經達到了我們想要達到的目標。正如我們之前所描述的，亞洲走出了中國新年。客戶的庫存量過多，而我們在亞洲的庫存量仍然有點過多，我們正在積極努力降低庫存量。所以第二季度會有一些吸收和缺口。這就是為什麼我之前說過，亞洲，我們預計今年的總量或多或少會接近去年，但會偏向後面半年。

Got it. That makes sense. And then in North America, just how is the ramp-up of Martinsville going and then as well as the expected startup for the Nevada plant? And then more importantly, how should we think about absorption cost of utilization after those plants are fully ramped? Do you have the volume throughput for these plans in your overall network? Or do you need to see some underlying market growth in the United States is full absorbent?

知道了。這就說得通了。然後在北美，馬丁斯維爾的產能擴張進展​​如何，以及內華達工廠的預期啟動情況如何？更重要的是，在這些工廠全面投產後，我們應該如何考慮利用的吸收成本？您的整個網絡中是否有這些計劃的吞吐量？或者您是否需要看到美國的一些潛在市場增長已完全吸收？

So we are -- we had an excellent startup in Martinsville. I would say, with the exception of the start-ups we've had in Brazil, historically, this might have been one of the better start-ups we've ever had. And Mesquite is still on schedule to start up Line 1 in July. So -- and we need Mesquite to start up well because we have a fairly large customer commitment in the Southwest that we would prefer not to be freighting cans all over God's green earth to get them there. So that will be quite helpful.

所以我們——我們在馬丁斯維爾有一家出色的初創公司。我想說，除了我們在巴西擁有的初創企業之外，從歷史上看，這可能是我們擁有過的最好的初創企業之一。 Mesquite 仍按計劃於 7 月啟動 1 號線。因此，我們需要豆科灌木能夠順利啟動，因為我們在西南部有相當大的客戶承諾，我們不希望將罐頭貨物運送到上帝的綠色地球上。所以這會很有幫助。

We do have, as others do a little slack in the system right now. And so as we always do, we balance where we make cans based on the cost per 1,000 and where the customers need cans. But as I said in the prepared remarks, we are well positioned to support our customers' needs, and that's the #1 goal to support our customers' needs. I would say that over the last several years, we were running far too tight and far too exposed to any one problem in the system that could have happened that would have caused us to not meet a customer requirement. We have the luxury right now of having a little bit of slack as perhaps some others do. But the #1 goal is to make sure we're prepared to satisfy and serve the customers through the summer months, and I think we're there.

我們確實有，就像其他人現在在系統中做得有點鬆懈一樣。因此，我們一如既往地根據每 1,000 個罐頭的成本和客戶需要罐頭的地點來平衡生產罐頭的地點。但正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們有能力支持客戶的需求，這是支持客戶需求的第一目標。我想說的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們運行得太緊，太容易受到系統中任何可能發生的問題的影響，從而導致我們無法滿足客戶的要求。我們現在很幸運，可以像其他一些人一樣，有一點懈怠。但第一目標是確保我們準備好在整個夏季滿足和服務客戶，我認為我們已經做到了。

The next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

I guess first question is just on volumes. When you think about, say, being maybe up 10% this year in a flat market, when you look out, I guess, in the beverage can markets in general, do you now view them back to historical levels, say, 1% to 3% growth? Or is it 2% to 4%? And considering it would be maybe 2% to 4%, do you expect that your volumes in '24 would be kind of within that range? Or would you be down just given the tough 10% comp that you face in '24?

我想第一個問題只是關於數量。當你想到今年在平坦的市場中可能上漲 10% 時，我想，當你觀察整個飲料罐市場時，你現在是否認為它們回到了歷史水平，比如 1% 到 1%？ 3%的增長？還是2%到4%？考慮到可能是 2% 到 4%，您預計 24 年的銷量會在這個範圍內嗎？或者考慮到你在 24 年面臨的 10% 的艱難補償，你會感到沮喪嗎？

So starting with the premise that the market is flat this year and we're up 10%. I think we'll also be up -- if the -- I do agree with you that we're going to return to -- I've been more saying this than everybody else for the last couple of years that eventually, we're going to go back to history, right? So I think we'd be quite happy with a 120 billion can market, if it grew 1% to 3% every year. That's the business we're used to. We know how to run a business like that. We know how to keep our costs down to drive more value in a business like that.

因此，首先假設今年市場持平，而我們上漲了 10%。我認為我們也會上升 - 如果 - 我確實同意你的觀點，我們將回到 - 在過去的幾年裡，我比其他人都更常說這一點，最終，我們'我們會回到歷史，對嗎？因此，我認為，如果罐頭市場每年增長 1% 至 3%，我們就會對 1200 億美元的市場感到非常滿意。這就是我們習慣的生意。我們知道如何經營這樣的企業。我們知道如何降低成本，從而為此類企業帶來更多價值。

And it -- while it doesn't require -- well, it's not exceptional growth. It doesn't require any capital. We generate a lot of cash, we pay down debt and return it to shareholders. It's an old tried and true model that works real well.

雖然它不需要——嗯，但這並不是非凡的增長。它不需要任何資本。我們產生大量現金，償還債務並將其返還給股東。這是一個久經考驗的真實模型，效果非常好。

So we're okay with that. I think that using your numbers, if we return to a 1% to 3% growth market in '24, we'll also be up more than that in '24 because of the Mesquite plant and some of the new business we have in the Southwest. I'll leave it at that because I don't really know where we're going to end this year, what promotions are going to look like this year and then what our customers might say about depending on how this year ends, what they might say about what their promotional intentions are for 2024.

所以我們對此沒有意見。我認為，根據你的數據，如果我們在 24 年恢復到 1% 到 3% 的增長市場，我們的增長也將比 24 年更高，因為豆科植物工廠和我們在西南。我就這樣吧，因為我真的不知道今年我們會在哪裡結束，今年的促銷活動會是什麼樣子，然後我們的客戶可能會說些什麼，這取決於今年的結束方式，他們會做什麼可能會說出他們 2024 年的促銷意圖。

Okay. And just also another longer-term question on free cash flow then. So assuming that you are in a kind of more modest growth environment, 1% to 3% going forward, what does your CapEx kind of revert to normalize? Does the $900 million come down to, say, $700 million? And then...

好的。這也是關於自由現金流的另一個長期問題。因此，假設您處於一種更為溫和的增長環境中，未來增長 1% 到 3%，那麼您的資本支出會恢復正常嗎？ 9 億美元是否可以歸結為 7 億美元？進而...

We've already said in February, and we reiterated it today that we believe CapEx next year is $500 million. And in a market with 1%, 2%, 3% in North America and maybe the same in Europe. We have a platform that we believe is sufficient right now to support their growing and diverse needs over the next couple of years. The only growth capital we would see in the system would be some smaller expansion projects in Asia if they are warranted.

我們已經在 2 月份說過，並且今天重申，我們相信明年的資本支出為 5 億美元。北美市場的這一比例為 1%、2%、3%，歐洲的比例也可能相同。我們相信我們現在擁有的平台足以支持他們在未來幾年不斷增長和多樣化的需求。如果有必要的話，我們在該系統中看到的唯一增長資本將是亞洲的一些較小的擴張項目。

So $500 million would be next year's number. And as we sit here today, I would expect $500 million way too early to give you a number for 2025, but it's hard to understand how it would be more than that in 2025.

因此，明年的數字將是 5 億美元。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我預計 5 億美元的資金還為時過早，無法為您提供 2025 年的數字，但很難理解 2025 年的數字會如何增加。

Sure. But just to clarify that, that would imply that free cash flow is closer to $900 million and plus as you move forward. Is that right?

當然。但澄清一下，這意味著自由現金流接近 9 億美元，並且隨著您的發展，還會增加。是對的嗎？

All else being equal, yes. All else being equal.

在其他條件相同的情況下，是的。其他條件相同。

The one thing we have $100 million of inflow in this year's number from working capital. So clearly, that's not something we'll get over here. But your number is not far off.

有一件事是，今年我們有 1 億美元的營運資金流入。很明顯，這不是我們在這裡要解決的問題。但你的數字並不遙遠。

The next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

And I wanted -- maybe a follow-up on that last question on market growth. I think previously, you talked about a potential for a mid-single-digit global market growth this year. It sounds like you might be airing kind of lower on that at this juncture. But could you help just frame kind of how you think about the global market at this point?

我想要——也許是關於市場增長的最後一個問題的後續行動。我想之前您談到了今年全球市場實現中個位數增長的潛力。聽起來你此時此刻的播放量可能會較低。但您能幫忙描述一下您目前對全球市場的看法嗎？

Yes. I think that given the challenges we see in one of the specific Asian markets, Cambodia, and Asia getting off to a much slower start than we had initially anticipated. We probably bring our overall growth. Even if we hit, let's say, the U.S. market is flat and we're up to 10%, even if we hit 10% in North America, we're going to be closer to flat to 2% for the full year based on some of the slowness we've seen starting in Asia and even the early slowness in Europe. That's correct.

是的。我認為，考慮到我們在特定亞洲市場之一看到的挑戰，柬埔寨和亞洲的起步比我們最初預期的要慢得多。我們可能會帶來我們的整體增長。即使我們達到，比方說，美國市場持平，我們的增長達到 10%，即使我們在北美達到 10%，我們全年的增長也將接近持平，達到 2%。我們在亞洲看到了一些緩慢的情況，甚至在歐洲也出現了早期的緩慢情況。這是正確的。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just following up. In Transit, you obviously see a strong start to the year and cost driven kind of offsetting some of the volume and market issues that you talked about. How do we think about as you get through some of these kind of more significant cost actions and they layer through the system this year, backlog on the equipment side and visibility to volumes kind of returning to growth in '24. Just what are you seeing in the forward-leading indicators in that business, don't think about the growth trajectories where some of the more significant cost actions aren't just big of a tailwind again.

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是跟進。在運輸方面，您顯然會看到今年的強勁開局，成本驅動型抵消了您談到的一些數量和市場問題。當您完成一些此類更重要的成本行動時，我們如何考慮，它們今年將貫穿整個系統，設備方面的積壓以及數量在 24 年恢復增長的可見性。只是您在該業務的前瞻性領先指標中看到了什麼，不要考慮增長軌跡，其中一些更重要的成本行動不僅僅是再次帶來巨大的推動力。

Yes. So as I said earlier, the business is far more diverse than most people understand. It's not as cyclical as want to discuss. The end markets might be, but the business is not. But I think we'll have a cost structure now that I think we've got some proper management manufacturing management techniques into the business. We've got a cost structure it's exceptionally competitive.

是的。正如我之前所說，業務遠比大多數人理解的要多樣化。它並不像要討論的那樣週期性。終端市場可能是，但業務不是。但我認為我們現在將擁有一個成本結構，因為我認為我們已經在業務中採用了一些適當的管理製造管理技術。我們的成本結構極具競爭力。

And as the economy -- the economy is going to make the turn at some point, whether that's early '24 or mid-'24, I'm not an economist, but business is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from the economic turn. And I think that one of the benefits we're seeing in that business right now is with things slowing down a little. Some of the supply chain issues that we've struggled with in the equipment business over the last couple of years are starting to ease which is allowing us to do a couple of things, obviously, complete orders and get them out the door, but reassess our own supply chain to further protect ourselves from stresses in the future.

隨著經濟——經濟將在某個時候發生轉變，無論是 24 年初還是 24 年中期，我不是經濟學家，但企業處於非常有利的位置，可以從經濟轉變中受益。我認為我們現在在該業務中看到的好處之一是事情放緩了一點。過去幾年我們在設備業務中一直困擾的一些供應鏈問題開始緩解，這使我們能夠做一些事情，顯然，完成訂單並將其送出大門，但重新評估我們自己的供應鏈，以進一步保護我們自己免受未來的壓力。

So as I said earlier, we're -- for a business where we invest no money, we're exceptionally positive on the outlook for the business.

正如我之前所說，對於一家我們不投資的企業，我們對該業務的前景非常樂觀。

The next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Your accounts payable dropped $450 million sequentially, which is unusual for the first quarter. What's behind that? And are your payables and accrued liabilities higher by the end of the year-over-year or lower? Can you talk about that line?

您的應付賬款連續下降了 4.5 億美元，這在第一季度是不尋常的。這背後是什麼？到年末，您的應付賬款和應計負債是高於還是低於？你能談談那條線嗎？

So 2 things behind that, one of which is the cost of raw materials are obviously lower right now than they were last year. So as we're bringing materials into prepare inventories for the season, they cost less, and then therefore, the payable is less. .

這背後有兩件事，其中之一是原材料成本現在明顯低於去年。因此，當我們將材料放入本季準備庫存時，它們的成本就會降低，因此應付款項也會減少。 。

And then the other thing we've been working real hard to bring inventory levels down. So we're not ordering as much as we would have ordered last year. We're far more cautious on the outlook and what our customers are telling us for the outlook than we were at this time last year. So the cost and the actual level of inventories, therefore, the purchases we're making is far lower than we would have been making at this point last year. and the value of inventory and the level of inventory even lower, trying to drive it lower than where we finished the year at the end of December.

另一方面，我們一直在努力降低庫存水平。因此，我們的訂購量沒有去年那麼多。與去年同期相比，我們對前景以及客戶對前景的看法要謹慎得多。因此，成本和實際庫存水平，我們的採購量遠遠低於去年此時的採購量。庫存價值和庫存水平甚至更低，試圖使其低於 12 月底的年終水平。

So by the time we get to the end of this year, some of that will be dependent on pricing in the market for raw materials as well as our outlook for 2024, specifically Chinese New Year throughout Asia and Carnival in Brazil as those markets are more weighted towards the winter -- our winter months than the typical Northern Hemisphere markets.

因此，到今年年底，其中一些將取決於原材料市場的定價以及我們對 2024 年的展望，特別是整個亞洲的農曆新年和巴西的狂歡節，因為這些市場更與典型的北半球市場​​相比，我們的冬季月份更加偏向冬季。

So what I should take away from your comments is that, that's a representative number for the year. Maybe it's a little bit higher, maybe it's a little bit lower. But given where raw materials are that's where your payables and liabilities are running.

因此，我應該從您的評論中得出的結論是，這是今年的代表性數字。也許它高一點，也許它低一點。但考慮到原材料在哪裡，你的應付賬款和負債就在哪裡。

Yes. I mean it might tick up a little bit. We're trying to drive inventory values down to take risk out of our system. We and others carried far too much risk into the third and fourth quarters last year as sales did not materialize. And we're very focused on not carrying that risk anymore in the future. So we're going to be a little bit more cautious as to how much we carry.

是的。我的意思是它可能會上漲一點。我們正在努力降低庫存價值，以消除系統中的風險。由於銷售未能實現，我們和其他人在去年第三和第四季度承擔了太大的風險。我們非常注重未來不再承擔這種風險。因此，我們對於攜帶的數量會更加謹慎。

The next question comes from the line of Cleve Rueckert from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的克利夫·魯克特 (Cleve Rueckert)。

I just have 2 questions. I'll ask them separately because they're not really related, but just to start off, I want to be a little bit more direct about the guidance and all the discussion that we've had around promotional activity. If that promotional activity does not materialize, is the guidance range still achievable?

我只有 2 個問題。我會單獨詢問他們，因為它們並沒有真正相關，但首先，我想更直接地了解我們圍繞促銷活動進行的指導和所有討論。如果促銷活動沒有實現，指導範圍還能達到嗎？

The range is achievable. That's why -- I mean it's a pretty wide range. I think if you -- the top end and the bottom end, there's probably like $70 million of swing in there. And as I said earlier, even with -- optimistic as opposed to extremely confident in promotional activity, even with that with the outperformance against original target in Europe in Transit, it will more than offset some of the internal caution we placed against what we see as perhaps less or delayed promotional activity from where we would have liked to have seen at the beginning of the year. So the range is achievable.

範圍是可以達到的。這就是為什麼——我的意思是它的範圍相當廣泛。我想如果你——高端和低端，那裡可能有大約 7000 萬美元的波動。正如我之前所說，即使對促銷活動持樂觀態度，而不是極其有信心，即使在歐洲過境方面表現優於最初目標，這也將抵消我們對我們所看到的情況所提出的一些內部警告我們希望在年初看到的促銷活動可能會減少或延遲。所以這個範圍是可以實現的。

Yes. I just wanted to make sure that was clear. I mean I sort of got some tidbits of conservatism, but it's pretty clear that promotional activity would represent upside to the plan for the balance of the year.

是的。我只是想確保這一點清楚。我的意思是，我得到了一些保守主義的花絮，但很明顯，促銷活動將代表今年剩餘時間的計劃的好處。

Well, it would present it may end -- it would -- yes, it would represent the high end of the range. Maybe it takes a little higher than the high end of the range, but let's just stay within the range.

嗯，它會表明它可能會結束——它會——是的，它將代表該範圍的高端。也許它需要比範圍的高端稍高一些，但讓我們保持在範圍內。

Yes. Okay. All right. That's clear. I just wanted to more direct and explicit about it. And then just looking a little bit longer term, and this is a question that's come up with some of our conversations with the industry and investors over the past couple of weeks. I'm just wondering, like bigger picture, whether you're seeing your customers filling capacity investments, keeping pace with that 30% capacity increase that you were talking about over the last 3 to 4 years or whether some of the investment that's required to absorb that capacity is being delayed such that -- not on purpose necessarily, but it's just fading your investment a little bit, such that you would have a longer tail of growth to absorb some of the slack in the system that you're experiencing.

是的。好的。好的。很清楚。我只是想更直接、更明確地表達這一點。然後從長遠來看，這是我們在過去幾週與行業和投資者進行的一些對話中提出的一個問題。我只是想知道，從更大的角度來看，您是否看到您的客戶正在填補產能投資，與您在過去 3 到 4 年中談論的 30% 的產能增長保持同步，或者是否需要一些投資吸收能力被延遲，這不一定是故意的，但它只是稍微削弱了你的投資，這樣你就會有更長的增長尾巴來吸收你正在經歷的系統中的一些閒置。

No, I mean -- I don't want to speak too much towards our customers. But our customers have more than enough capacity installed to meet let's just say that the North American beverage can market has about 130 billion or -- whatever the number is somewhere between 130 billion and 135 billion cans of capacity, maybe it's 128 billion or something. Our customers have more than enough can filling capacity installed in their plants to absorb that. They -- the can companies run 24/7. Most of our customers do not run 24/7. They run 5 to -- listen, the -- if they had to dial up more ships, they could dial up more ships to fill more product. That's not the issue.

不，我的意思是——我不想對我們的客戶說太多話。但我們的客戶已經安裝了足夠的容量來滿足北美飲料罐市場大約 1300 億罐的需求，或者——無論這個數字在 1300 億到 1350 億罐容量之間，也許是 1280 億罐之類的。我們的客戶在他們的工廠中安裝了足夠多的罐頭灌裝能力來吸收這種影響。他們——罐頭公司 24/7 運行。我們的大多數客戶都不是 24/7 運行的。他們運行 5 是為了——聽著，——如果他們必須撥出更多的船，他們可以撥出更多的船來裝滿更多的產品。那不是問題。

Yes. Okay. All right. So it's really more of a market question than anything structural or investor...

是的。好的。好的。所以這實際上更多的是一個市場問題，而不是任何結構性或投資者問題......

Yes. Marcia, do you have any more questions or is that it?

是的。瑪西婭，您還有其他問題嗎？就是這樣嗎？

That's all for the questions. Speakers, you may proceed.

這就是問題的全部內容。各位發言者，可以繼續了。

Yes. Thank you, Marcia. I guess that will conclude the call today. thank everybody for joining us, and we'll talk to you again in July. Bye now. .

是的。謝謝你，瑪西婭。我想今天的電話會議就到此結束。感謝大家加入我們，我們將在七月再次與您交談。再見了。 。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。