Crown Holdings Inc (CCK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Crown Holdings Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Kevin Clothier, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sir, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到 Crown Holdings 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，此會議正在錄製中。我現在想把電話轉給高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kevin Clothier 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Nicole, and good morning. With me on today's call is Tim Donahue, President and Chief Executive Officer. If you don't already have the earnings release, it is available on our website at crowncork.com. On this call, as in the earnings release, we will be making a number of forward-looking statements. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to vary is contained in the press release and in our SEC filings, including Form 10-K from 2021 and subsequent filings. Earnings for the quarter were $0.74 per share compared to a loss of $7.95 in the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，妮可，早上好。總裁兼首席執行官蒂姆·多納休 (Tim Donahue) 與我一起參加今天的電話會議。如果您還沒有收益發布，可以在我們的網站 crowncork.com 上找到。在這次電話會議上，就像在收益發布中一樣，我們將發表一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與此類陳述存在重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果發生變化的因素的更多信息包含在新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，包括 2021 年的 10-K 表格和後續文件。本季度每股收益為 0.74 美元，而去年同期為虧損 7.95 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.17 compared to $1.66 in the quarter. Net sales in the quarter were down 1% from the prior year as global beverage can growth of 3% and the pass-through of higher raw material costs were offset by foreign currency and as expected, lower volumes in the Transit Packaging business. Segment income was $292 million in the quarter compared to $357 million in the prior year, primarily due to timing of costs associated with higher inventory levels, lower cost absorption from planned inventory reductions and higher energy prices in Europe.

調整後每股收益為 1.17 美元，而本季度為 1.66 美元。本季度淨銷售額較上年同期下降 1%，原因是全球飲料罐增長 3%，原材料成本上漲的轉嫁被外幣抵消，而且正如預期的那樣，運輸包裝業務的銷量下降。本季度分部收入為 2.92 億美元，上年同期為 3.57 億美元，這主要是由於與較高庫存水平相關的成本時間安排、計劃中的庫存減少帶來的較低成本吸收以及歐洲較高的能源價格。

As outlined in the release, we project EBITDA to grow between 8% and 12% in 2023. The projection assumes better results in our global beverage can and Transit Packaging businesses, offset by lower results in North American tinplate business, the result of Q1 inventory gains not recurring in 2023.

正如新聞稿中所述，我們預計 2023 年 EBITDA 將增長 8% 至 12%。該預測假設我們的全球飲料罐和運輸包裝業務取得更好的業績，但被北美馬口鐵業務的業績下降所抵消，這是第一季度庫存的結果收益不會在 2023 年再次發生。

As stated in the earnings release, first quarter adjusted earnings per diluted share are projected to be in the range of $1 to $1.10 with the full year projected to be between $6.20 and $6.40 per share. The adjusted earnings guidance includes net interest expense of $400 million in 2023 compared to $270 million in 2022, $0.40 of incremental noncash pension and poach retirement costs. Average common shares outstanding of approximately $120 million. Exchange rates at current levels with the euro at 1.07 to the dollar and full year tax rate between 24% and 25%. Depreciation of approximately $350 million compared to $301 million in 2022. Non-controlling interest to be in the range of $140 million. Dividends to noncontrolling interests are expected to be approximately $110 million.

如收益發布所述，第一季度調整後每股攤薄收益預計在 1 美元至 1.10 美元之間，全年預計在每股 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。調整後的收益指引包括 2023 年 4 億美元的淨利息支出（2022 年為 2.7 億美元）、0.40 美元的增量非現金養老金和挖角退休成本。平均已發行普通股約為 1.2 億美元。當前水平的匯率為 1.07 歐元兌 1 美元，全年稅率在 24% 至 25% 之間。折舊約 3.5 億美元，而 2022 年為 3.01 億美元。非控股權益將在 1.4 億美元左右。非控股權益的股息預計約為 1.1 億美元。

We currently estimate 2023 full year free cash flow of approximately $500 million with approximately $900 million in capital spending. We expect a net $100 million improvement in working capital, which is driven by lower inventory, partially offset by continued investment to support beverage can growth. We expect the majority of free cash flow to go towards debt reduction until we get within our stated leverage range of 3 to 3.5x. With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

我們目前估計 2023 年全年自由現金流約為 5 億美元，資本支出約為 9 億美元。我們預計營運資本將淨增加 1 億美元，這是由庫存減少推動的，部分被支持飲料罐增長的持續投資所抵消。我們預計大部分自由現金流將用於減少債務，直到我們達到規定的 3 至 3.5 倍槓桿率範圍內。有了這個，我會把電話轉給蒂姆。

Thank you, Kevin, and good morning to everyone. Before reviewing our fourth quarter results, we want to briefly update you on the company's situation in Turkey. For those of you not aware, twin earthquakes, the first registering 7.8 magnitude and the second at 7.5 struck southern Turkey on Monday. Across the region, several thousand buildings have collapsed, resulting in significant loss of life, with brutal winter weather further complicating rescue and recovery efforts. The epicenter of the first quake was only 50 miles from our beverage can plant in Osmaniye. And we at Crown feel truly blessed that all employees are alive and accounted for.

謝謝你，凱文，大家早上好。在回顧我們的第四季度業績之前，我們想簡要介紹一下公司在土耳其的最新情況。對於那些不知道的人，週一發生了雙地震，第一次地震為 7.8 級，第二次地震為 7.5 級襲擊了土耳其南部。在整個地區，數千座建築物倒塌，造成大量人員傷亡，嚴酷的冬季天氣使救援和恢復工作更加複雜。第一次地震的震中距離我們在 Osmaniye 的飲料罐廠只有 50 英里。我們在 Crown 感到非常幸運，因為所有員工都還活著並且受到重視。

Electricity has been restored to the plant and with no damage to the physical plant structure, equipment or inventory, we have resumed shipments to those customers able to receive deliveries. The company is currently coordinating shelter for displaced employees and their families. And we have every confidence that the global Crown family will again rise up to support their fellow associates in Turkey. As reflected in last night's earnings release, performance in the fourth quarter was a bit ahead of our previous expectations due primarily to firm global beverage can demand, cost reduction activities within transit and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. Compared to the prior year fourth quarter, lower cost absorption from planned inventory reductions, higher cost inventories related to the timing of customer sales, higher energy costs and inflation, all weighed on income results.

工廠已恢復供電，工廠結構、設備或庫存沒有受損，我們已恢復向能夠接收貨物的客戶發貨。該公司目前正在為流離失所的員工及其家人協調收容所。我們完全相信，全球皇冠家族將再次挺身而出，支持他們在土耳其的同事。正如昨晚發布的財報所反映的那樣，第四季度的業績略高於我們之前的預期，這主要是由於全球飲料罐需求堅挺、運輸成本削減活動以及美元疲軟。與去年第四季度相比，計劃庫存減少導致的成本吸收減少、與客戶銷售時間相關的成本庫存增加、能源成本增加和通貨膨脹都對收入結果造成壓力。

Looking ahead to 2023, we expect significant improvement in segment income as higher beverage can volumes, contractual cost recovery and benefits of cost reduction activities will more than offset the significant 2022 steel repricing benefits realized within our North American tinplate operations. Below the line, as Kevin described, we will face headwinds from higher interest and pension costs.

展望 2023 年，我們預計分部收入將顯著改善，因為更高的飲料罐產量、合同成本回收和成本削減活動的收益將超過我們北美馬口鐵業務實現的 2022 年鋼鐵重新定價的顯著收益。正如凱文所描述的那樣，在這條線之下，我們將面臨更高的利息和養老金成本帶來的阻力。

As Kevin also noted, capital expenditures for 2023 are currently estimated at $900 million. And looking forward, we project $500 million of capital expenditure in 2024. The commercialization of our various beverage and food can capacity expansions are described in last night's release. Turning to the operating segments. In Americas Beverage, unit volumes advanced 4% in the fourth quarter, with the gain found primarily in Central and South America as North American volumes were up only modestly. Volume advances were offset by lower cost absorption, the result of planned inventory reductions and the timing effect of higher cost inventories. We estimate that the North American market, that is Canada and the United States was down 8% in the fourth quarter, with much of the decline found in fewer imported cans year-over-year.

正如凱文還指出的那樣，目前估計 2023 年的資本支出為 9 億美元。展望未來，我們計劃在 2024 年進行 5 億美元的資本支出。昨晚的新聞稿中描述了我們各種飲料和食品罐容量擴張的商業化。轉向經營部門。在美洲飲料市場，第四季度單位銷量增長 4%，增長主要出現在中美洲和南美洲，因為北美銷量僅小幅增長。銷量增長被較低的成本吸收、計劃庫存減少的結果和較高庫存成本的時間效應所抵消。我們估計，北美市場（即加拿大和美國）在第四季度下降了 8%，其中大部分下降來自同比減少的進口罐頭。

While only 5 weeks into the new year, we remain confident in our outlook for 10% North American volume growth in 2023. Volume growth, combined with contractual inflation recovery leads us to expect income in the segment to be up significantly in 2023 with flatter performance in the first half and the gain to prior year spread over the back half. Our North American growth assumption assumes an overall flat market. Unit volumes in European Beverage increased 2% in the fourth quarter with growth noted in Greece, Jordan and Turkey. As previously discussed, the impact of higher inflation and energy costs, coupled with timing of higher cost inventories, negatively affected income in the segment. For 2023, we expect to begin to claw back margins about halfway back to 2021 levels as low to mid-single-digit volume increases, coupled with the benefits of renewed contract terms and recovery of prior costs accelerate income performance beginning in the second quarter.

雖然距離新年只有 5 週，但我們對 2023 年北美銷量增長 10% 的前景仍然充滿信心。銷量增長，加上合同通脹復甦，使我們預計該部門的收入將在 2023 年顯著增長，表現更平緩上半年和前一年的收益分佈在後半年。我們的北美增長假設假設市場總體平穩。第四季度歐洲飲料銷量增長 2%，其中希臘、約旦和土耳其出現增長。如前所述，更高的通貨膨脹和能源成本的影響，加上更高成本庫存的時機，對該部門的收入產生了負面影響。到 2023 年，我們預計利潤率將開始回落到 2021 年水平的一半左右，因為從第二季度開始，中低個位數的銷量增長，加上續簽合同條款的好處和先前成本的恢復加速了收入表現。

Beverage can volumes in Asia Pacific advanced 2% in the fourth quarter as growth in most Southeast Asian countries was partially offset by economic weakness in Cambodia. The carrying cost of higher cost inventory ahead of customer sales continue to weigh on income performance, which we expect will continue into the first quarter of 2023. However, we do expect income in the segment to advance in 2023 as comps in the back half of the year become much easier. When adjusted for currency and the divestiture of the Kiwi plan business, fourth quarter segment income in the Transit Packaging business was within $3 million of the prior year. The benefits of the previously announced overhead reduction program, coupled with positive price almost entirely offset high single-digit volume declines. Continued benefits from the overhead reduction program, combined with a more favorable steel cost price relationship is expected to drive mid- to high single-digit income improvement in 2023. The North American tinplate and can-making equipment businesses closed out an exceptional performance in 2022 with another firm performance in the fourth quarter.

由於大多數東南亞國家的增長被柬埔寨的經濟疲軟部分抵消，第四季度亞太地區的飲料罐銷量增長了 2%。客戶銷售之前較高成本庫存的賬面成本繼續影響收入表現，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年第一季度。但是，我們確實預計該部門的收入將在 2023 年作為下半年的收入增長這一年變得容易多了。根據貨幣和 Kiwi 計劃業務的剝離進行調整後，運輸包裝業務第四季度的分部收入與上一年相比在 300 萬美元以內。先前宣布的管理費用削減計劃的好處，加上積極的價格幾乎完全抵消了個位數的高銷量下降。間接費用削減計劃的持續受益，加上更有利的鋼鐵成本價格關係，預計將在 2023 年推動中高個位數收入增長。北美馬口鐵和製罐設備業務在 2022 年取得了出色的業績第四季度再次表現強勁。

Segment results in 2023 will be down compared to '22, mainly the result of inventory repricing benefits realized in the first 2 quarters of '22, not recurring in 2023, coupled with continuing weak aerosol can demand. As Kevin described, target leverage, given the existing business portfolio remains in the range of 3 to 3.5x. And we are committed to applying excess free cash flow towards reducing leverage to that range. Over the last 2 years, we have returned in excess of $1.9 billion to shareholders in the form of quarterly dividends and share buybacks.

2023 年的部門業績將低於 22 年，這主要是由於 22 年前兩個季度實現的庫存重新定價收益（2023 年不再出現）以及氣霧劑罐需求持續疲軟的結果。正如凱文所描述的那樣，鑑於現有業務組合仍保持在 3 到 3.5 倍的範圍內，目標槓桿率。我們致力於將多餘的自由現金流用於將槓桿率降低到該範圍。在過去 2 年中，我們以季度股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了超過 19 億美元。

In summary, and looking ahead to '23, we remain confident in our ability to reaccelerate EBITDA growth in 2023. Contractual terms will allow us to begin to recover significant inflationary increases, our inventory positions have largely been rightsized at year-end '22, renewed European contracts with more appropriate terms, initiated significant overhead cost reduction activities within transit packaging and have or will commercialize significant new beverage and food can capacity in the United States and Europe to continue to serve our customers' growing requirements. And just before we open the call to questions, we ask that you limit yourselves to 1 or 2 questions, so that others may have the opportunity to ask their questions before we run out of time.

總而言之，展望 23 年，我們對我們在 2023 年重新加速 EBITDA 增長的能力充滿信心。合同條款將使我們能夠開始恢復顯著的通脹增長，我們的庫存頭寸在 22 年底時已基本調整，以更合適的條款續簽歐洲合同，在運輸包裝中啟動顯著的間接成本削減活動，並且已經或將在美國和歐洲將大量新的飲料和食品罐容量商業化，以繼續滿足我們客戶不斷增長的需求。就在我們開始提問之前，我們要求您將自己限制在 1 到 2 個問題內，這樣其他人就有機會在我們時間用完之前提出他們的問題。

And with that, Nicole, we are ready to open the call to questions.

有了這個，妮可，我們準備好開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of George Staphos of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 George Staphos。

My 2 questions, Tim, you mentioned that you remain confident in the 10% growth outlook for North America for this year, and we appreciate that. Can you remind us about what is making you most comfortable about that outlook, either by end market or whatever you would be able to share? And talk to how the risks may be to the upside or to the downside on that 10% relative to where you were and what you were speaking to last quarter.

我的兩個問題，蒂姆，你提到你對今年北美 10% 的增長前景充滿信心，我們對此表示讚賞。您能否通過終端市場或您能夠分享的任何內容提醒我們，是什麼讓您對這種前景感到最滿意？並談談相對於你上個季度所處的位置和你所說的內容，這 10% 的風險可能是上行還是下行。

The second question is on cash flow. Kevin, can you talk to us about some of the other key line items we need to consider in getting to or at least evaluating your $500 million free cash flow target? Is there anything that you need to put in for pension? Recognizing the pension expense is noncash, nonetheless, it does reflect balances that you need to amortize anything in there for pension funding, et cetera.

第二個問題是關於現金流。凱文，你能和我們談談在達到或至少評估你的 5 億美元自由現金流目標時我們需要考慮的其他一些關鍵項目嗎？您需要為養老金投入什麼嗎？認識到養老金支出是非現金的，但是，它確實反映了您需要攤銷其中任何用於養老金等的餘額。

Okay. So George, on growth, I think the upside or downside to the 10% projection revolves around what the market is going to do. As we said, we are confident with the 10%, assuming a flat market in '23. If the market is up, we'll do a little better. If the market is down, then our customers may not pull as many cans. But the entirety of our growth centers around those customers who have continued to grow principally in the carbonated soft drink and sparkling water categories as well as some of the energy and other nutritional type drinks. That growth for us is principally centered on their growth and/or Crown gaining a greater percentage of that customer's volume from where we stood last year.

好的。所以喬治，關於增長，我認為 10% 預測的上行或下行取決於市場將要做什麼。正如我們所說，假設 23 年市場持平，我們對 10% 充滿信心。如果市場上漲，我們會做得更好。如果市場不景氣，那麼我們的客戶可能不會拉那麼多罐頭。但我們的全部增長都圍繞著那些主要在碳酸軟飲料和蘇打水類別以及一些能量和其他營養型飲料方面繼續增長的客戶。對我們來說，這種增長主要集中在他們的增長和/或 Crown 從我們去年的立場上獲得了更大比例的客戶數量。

Kevin provided a sea of numbers already. I'm not sure how you digested all that already. But to the extent he can give you any more numbers, go ahead, Kevin.

凱文已經提供了大量的數字。我不確定你是如何消化所有這些的。但就他能給你更多的數字而言，繼續吧，凱文。

Okay. George, in terms of pension, we don't expect a material difference from where we were this year. Remember, this year included some recovery from the U.K. pension plan that we had. So if you exclude the U.K. pension plan, it should be in line, not much different from there. In terms of the other line items, if you think about -- there's a fair amount of taxes paid that we have, anywhere between call it $250 million and $280 million depending on how much income we make. We'll have to pay in taxes, and interest paid is obviously up as a result of the P&L being up but...

好的。喬治，就養老金而言，我們預計與今年相比不會有實質性差異。請記住，今年我們從英國的養老金計劃中獲得了一些復甦。因此，如果你排除英國的養老金計劃，它應該是一致的，與那裡沒有太大區別。就其他項目而言，如果你考慮一下——我們支付了相當多的稅款，根據我們的收入多少，可以稱之為 2.5 億美元到 2.8 億美元之間。我們將不得不繳納稅款，而且由於損益表的增加，支付的利息顯然增加了，但是......

Just some modest severance related to the overhead reduction.

只是一些與管理費用減少相關的適度遣散費。

Yes. So I mean that's generally the thesis, George.

是的。所以我的意思是這通常是論文，喬治。

And working cap, you said, would be $100 million source to you this year?

你說，工作上限今年對你來說將是 1 億美元的來源？

Yes.

是的。

Next question is from the line of Mike Leithead of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mike Leithead。

Great. And maybe it's appropriate to throw in a quick [go birds]. First, on the leverage side, you talked about recommitting to the 3 to 3.5x. I guess when do you expect to kind of get there this year? And I guess given the interest rate and kind of the macro backdrop, does that change at all how you think about the leverage? Do you want to get closer to the bottom end before you reaccelerate repurchases? Just kind of flesh out how you're thinking about that.

偉大的。也許快速 [go birds] 是合適的。首先，在槓桿方面，你談到重新承諾 3 到 3.5 倍。我想你今年什麼時候能到達那裡？我想考慮到利率和宏觀背景的種類，這是否會改變您對槓桿的看法？在重新加速回購之前，是否想更接近底端？只是充實一下您的想法。

Yes, really a thoughtful question. Thank you. So we -- I think if you take the midpoint of the EBITDA range we provided you, if you take the $500 million of cash flow that we're going to generate, less the dividends we pay to the common shareholder and the dividends to the minority partner, I think if you flush all that, you probably get yourself down to around 3.2, 3.25, something like that by the end of the year.

是的，確實是一個深思熟慮的問題。謝謝。所以我們——我認為如果你取我們提供給你的 EBITDA 範圍的中點，如果你取我們將產生的 5 億美元現金流，減去我們支付給普通股股東的股息和支付給普通股股東的股息少數合夥人，我認為如果你把所有這些都沖掉，你可能會在年底前降到 3.2、3.25 左右。

Just given the seasonality of the business and our borrowing requirements on a seasonal basis, I would expect that much of the decline into the range as it does for many packaging companies whose principal businesses is in the Northern Hemisphere. We won't feel comfortable that we're within that range until the year -- until we get into the -- late into the fourth quarter as we collect receivables and the business winds down before the build of business into the next year.

考慮到業務的季節性和我們季節性的借貸需求，我預計下降幅度很大，就像許多主要業務在北半球的包裝公司一樣。我們不會感到舒服，直到今年 - 直到我們進入 - 進入第四季度末，因為我們收集應收賬款並且業務在明年業務建立之前結束。

I don't -- you can do the math there. I think it's pretty close to what I've said. I think the real thoughtful part of your question is what is the appropriate level of leverage within that range, just given the current global economic environment we're in, the central banks around the world, what their motives are to curb inflation, and just the cost of the debt and the relative dilution, let's just call it relative dilution that comes from higher cost debt, then the free money we all experienced for the last several years.

我不——你可以在那裡做數學。我認為這與我所說的非常接近。我認為你的問題中真正深思熟慮的部分是在這個範圍內適當的槓桿水平是多少，只是考慮到我們目前所處的全球經濟環境，世界各地的中央銀行，他們抑制通貨膨脹的動機是什麼，只是債務成本和相對稀釋，我們就稱它為較高成本債務帶來的相對稀釋，然後是過去幾年我們都經歷過的免費資金。

So I think to your question, I think 3 to 3.5 is a fairly large range and 0.5 a turn in absolute terms is worth $1 billion of debt. So as you think about refinancing and refinancing at advantageous rates, obviously, the less absolute amount of debt you have to refinance, theoretically, the better absolute rates you can get for a long-term period of time. So I would say, in this environment, you'd feel more comfortable in the 3 to 3.25x range as opposed to the range as wide as 3 to 3.5, but we give you a range, because it's all subject to review as facts and circumstances change over time.

所以我認為對於你的問題，我認為 3 到 3.5 是一個相當大的範圍，絕對值每轉 0.5 相當於 10 億美元的債務。因此，當您考慮以優惠利率再融資和再融資時，顯然，從理論上講，您需要再融資的債務絕對數額越少，您在長期內可以獲得的絕對利率就越高。所以我想說，在這種環境下，你會覺得在 3 到 3.25 倍的範圍內比 3 到 3.5 倍的範圍更舒服，但我們給你一個範圍，因為它都需要作為事實和情況會隨著時間而改變。

Great. Appreciate that answer. And then second, real quickly for Kevin. I apologize if I missed this at all the numbers you threw out there. But can you quantify how big the headwind is for steel in the first quarter? And then secondly, real briefly on pension, is that just spread out through the year, or is it lumpy in a quarter? Or how should we think about that?

偉大的。欣賞這個答案。其次，對凱文來說真的很快。如果我錯過了你扔在那裡的所有數字，我深表歉意。但是你能量化一季度鋼鐵的逆風有多大嗎？然後其次，關於養老金，它只是在一年中分散開來，還是在一個季度內波動？或者我們應該如何考慮？

I'll take it, Mike. So the pension will be equally spread through the year. So that incremental $0.40, you can think about an incremental $0.10 per quarter. On the steel repricing headwind, I think last year, in the first -- principally in the first quarter, a little bit into the second quarter, we had $35 million to $40 million of gain. The year-over-year impact, '23 versus '22 is a little more than that because you've got to decline -- a low double-digit decline in steel prices this year. So if you had $35 million to $40 million gain last year and you've got $15 million to $20 million loss this year, the year-over-year impact in the first -- principally in the first quarter, a little into the second quarter, totaling somewhere between $50 million and $60 million headwind.

我會接受的，邁克。因此，養老金將在全年平均分配。因此，增加 0.40 美元，您可以考慮每季度增加 0.10 美元。關於鋼鐵重新定價的逆風，我認為去年，在第一個——主要是在第一季度，稍微進入第二季度，我們獲得了 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元的收益。與去年同期相比，'23 與 '22 的影響比這要大一點，因為你必須下降——今年鋼鐵價格出現兩位數的低跌幅。因此，如果你去年有 3500 萬到 4000 萬美元的收益，而你今年有 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元的損失，那麼第一季度的同比影響主要是第一季度，第二季度略有影響，總計在 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元之間。

Next question is from the line of Ghansham Panjabi of Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ghansham Panjabi。

On your comments on inventory level adjustments, did that fully play out in the fourth quarter? Or is there any sort of spillover into the first quarter as well?

關於您對庫存水平調整的評論，這在第四季度是否完全發揮作用？還是第一季度也有任何溢出效應？

No. So Ghansham, what I said, we're largely rightsized. We still have a little bit in Mexico, and we have a chunk in Asia, which is probably going to -- first quarter in Asia is going to cost us a handful or a touch more in terms of income until we flush it through.

不，所以 Ghansham，正如我所說，我們在很大程度上是正確的。我們在墨西哥還有一點點，我們在亞洲有很大一部分，這可能會 - 亞洲第一季度將花費我們少量或更多的收入，直到我們將其沖刷乾淨。

Okay, got you. And then in terms of the EBITDA guidance, I mean, 8% to 12%. Can you just give us more numbers in terms of -- I mean there's so much going on with the contractual recovery, cost savings, et cetera. Can you just give us the dollar amounts associated with that in terms of what you're embedding for 2023 EBITDA guidance?

好的，明白了。然後就 EBITDA 指導而言，我的意思是，8% 到 12%。你能不能給我們更多的數字——我的意思是在合同恢復、成本節約等方面發生了很多事情。您能否根據您為 2023 年 EBITDA 指南嵌入的內容向我們提供與此相關的美元金額？

Yes. So I kind of want to stay away from too much, but I think -- if you think about -- as we sit here today, we take care of the easy ones. You've got -- FX is flat. We're talking about EBITDA, so we don't have to talk about depreciation increases. I think between volume and price, you're well over $200 million, and you've got some cost reduction principally in transit, but also in Europe and Asia, probably in the 25% to 30% range, then a little bit more than that, adding for the overhead reduction in transit we'll have higher benefit -- higher bonus accrual. We hit these numbers, the folks might get a bonus in '23 as opposed to getting very little in '22. Not sure I really want to give any more than that on a public call, Ghansham, but that's -- think about price cost and volume being in the range of $200 million to $250 million cost reductions and overhead restructuring benefits being in the range of $50 million. And then I guess the only thing I'd say that $200 million to $250 million inclusive within there is the $50 million to $60 million headwind I described for you for tinplate. So some pretty big numbers year-on-year.

是的。所以我有點想遠離太多，但我認為——如果你想一想——當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們會處理簡單的問題。你有 - FX 持平。我們談論的是 EBITDA，所以我們不必談論折舊增加。我認為在數量和價格之間，你已經遠遠超過 2 億美元，而且你主要在運輸方面降低了一些成本，而且在歐洲和亞洲，可能在 25% 到 30% 的範圍內，然後比那，再加上運輸中減少的間接費用，我們將獲得更高的收益——更高的應計獎金。我們達到了這些數字，人們可能會在 23 年獲得獎金，而不是在 22 年獲得很少的獎金。 Ghansham，我不確定我是否真的想在公開電話會議上提供更多，但那是 - 考慮價格成本和數量在 2 億至 2.5 億美元的範圍內，成本削減和間接重組收益在 50 美元範圍內百萬。然後我想我唯一要說的是 2 億到 2.5 億美元，其中包括我為你描述的馬口鐵的 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元逆風。所以一些相當大的數字同比。

Next question is from the line of Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Angel Castillo。

I was wondering, you talked a little bit about your kind of 1Q expectations. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more color as to what's embedded by region in your assumptions for volume as well as kind of EBITDA and comment what that bridge looks like.

我想知道，你談到了你對第一季度的期望。我希望你能給我們更多的顏色，說明你對體積和 EBITDA 的假設中按區域嵌入的內容，並評論這座橋的樣子。

Yes. I mean what we gave you -- again, Angel, we gave you so many numbers. I'm not sure I can give you anymore. But if we look at -- I think the big headwind in the first quarter is the steel repricing benefits we had last year and the steel cost this year, summing to $50 million to $60 million, I would say, for the most part, when you get through that $50 million to $60 million and some higher start-up costs in the first quarter, because we've got a number of lines coming up in the first quarter that pretty much everything else is flat in the first quarter. But you've got the earnings estimate, and you can work through the earnings estimate, and you can probably come up with a -- you got $50 million to $60 million headwind on steel and everything else, you'd probably get yourself a total of $75 million EBIT headwind in the first quarter, principally centered around, as I said, the steel and the start-up costs.

是的。我的意思是我們給了你什麼——再一次，安吉爾，我們給了你這麼多數字。我不確定我能不能再給你。但如果我們看看——我認為第一季度的最大阻力是我們去年獲得的鋼鐵重新定價收益和今年的鋼鐵成本，總計 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元，我想說的是，在很大程度上，當你在第一季度獲得了 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元和一些更高的啟動成本，因為我們在第一季度有很多線路出現，第一季度幾乎所有其他東西都持平。但是你已經有了盈利預測，你可以通過盈利預測來計算，你可能會得出一個——你在鋼鐵和其他方面有 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元的逆風，你可能會得到一個總計第一季度 7500 萬美元的息稅前利潤逆風，正如我所說，主要集中在鋼鐵和啟動成本上。

And then we start to return to better earnings and better acceleration in the second quarter. But I would say that on the Americas Beverage business, first and second quarter in total, largely flat to the prior year. European beverage will be down in the first quarter, will be up in the second quarter. Asia will be down in the second quarter -- down in the first and second quarter, start to return to growth in the third and fourth quarters. I think we expect Transit Packaging to be up in every quarter. And obviously, the tinplate business is down significantly in the first quarter, as we described, down a little bit in the second and then up in the third and fourth quarter.

然後我們開始在第二季度恢復更好的收益和更好的加速。但我要說的是，就美洲飲料業務而言，第一季度和第二季度總體上與去年同期基本持平。歐洲飲料一季度會下降，二季度會上升。亞洲將在第二季度下降——在第一和第二季度下降，在第三和第四季度開始恢復增長。我認為我們預計 Transit Packaging 每個季度都會增加。顯然，正如我們所描述的，馬口鐵業務在第一季度大幅下降，第二季度略有下降，然後在第三和第四季度上升。

And just to clarify, that was kind of from an EBITDA perspective, right? So from a volume standpoint...

澄清一下，這是從 EBITDA 的角度來看的，對吧？所以從體積的角度...

Segment income perspective.

分部收入觀點。

Segment income, yes. So what about from a volume perspective kind of embedded in that by region?

分部收入，是的。那麼從按地區嵌入其中的數量角度來看呢？

Listen, the Americas Beverage business is going to be up in every quarter. And mainly as a result of the North American volume increase, while we also expect some increase in Mexico and Brazil, we had a pretty good performance in Brazil in the fourth quarter. I think Brazil perhaps off to a little slow start here in January, but we expect Brazil to do better this year than we did last year. European beverage will be down in the first quarter as we start to bring on capacity in Italy, Spain and even the U.K. As the year progresses, we'll begin to accelerate volume performance in Europe.

聽著，美洲飲料業務每個季度都會增長。主要是由於北美銷量增加，同時我們也預計墨西哥和巴西會有一些增長，我們在第四季度在巴西的表現相當不錯。我認為巴西 1 月份的起步可能有點慢，但我們預計巴西今年的表現會比去年好。隨著我們開始在意大利、西班牙甚至英國增加產能，歐洲飲料在第一季度將下降。隨著時間的推移，我們將開始加速歐洲的銷量表現。

Asia, I think, Southeast Asia and China has reopened. Southeast Asia doing well with the exception of Cambodia right now. Q1 down, and then I think we start to see volume start to accelerate Q2, Q3 as the year goes on. And I think from the standpoint of [Signode], compared to the prior year volumes down in the first and second quarter, easier comps in the third and fourth quarter. And then I think in North American tinplate, we expect food volumes to be up each quarter and aerosol can volumes to be down each quarter.

亞洲，我認為，東南亞和中國已經重新開放。目前東南亞除柬埔寨外表現良好。第一季度下降，然後我認為隨著時間的推移，我們開始看到第二季度、第三季度的銷量開始加速。而且我認為，從 [Signode] 的角度來看，與去年第一季度和第二季度的銷量下降相比，第三季度和第四季度的銷量更容易。然後我認為在北美馬口鐵中，我們預計每個季度食品量都會增加，而氣霧劑罐量每個季度都會下降。

That's very helpful. And you talked about your inventories maybe a little bit more rightsized with some nuances across some regions. Could you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing across your customers, kind of the supply chain distributors, retailers? What are you kind of hearing from customers in terms of their inventories and the overall kind of levels of destocking that you kind of anticipate here as we think about the beginning of 2023?

這很有幫助。你談到你的庫存可能會在某些地區有一些細微差別。你能給我們更多關於你在你的客戶，供應鏈分銷商，零售商中看到的東西的顏色嗎？在我們考慮 2023 年初時，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼關於他們的庫存以及您在這裡預期的整體去庫存水平的信息？

The beverage world, the customers don't carry a lot of inventory, right? It's -- we deliver just in time. They fill and they ship. And I don't think at the end of the year or even as we sit here today, there's any significant -- especially the large CSD water and beer companies, I don't think there's any real large backlog of inventories in their possession. And the retailers only have so much space to store. So I think the channels are set up for a pretty good year this year. The cost of aluminum is down significantly over -- from the first quarter last year until now on the order of $1,000 to $1,500 a ton. So the hope is -- and we've seen some green shoots of promotions, buy 2 get 2, buy 2 get 1. So the hope is that we see some more promotional activity, and we do even better than we've outlined for you.

飲料世界，客戶不會攜帶大量庫存，對吧？這是——我們準時交貨。他們裝滿然後發貨。而且我不認為在今年年底，甚至當我們今天坐在這裡時，沒有任何重要的 - 特別是大型 CSD 水和啤酒公司，我不認為他們擁有任何真正的大量積壓庫存。零售商只有那麼多的存儲空間。所以我認為今年的渠道設置非常好。鋁的成本大幅下降——從去年第一季度到現在每噸 1,000 至 1,500 美元。所以希望是——我們已經看到了一些促銷活動的萌芽，買 2 送 2，買 2 送 1。所以希望我們看到更多的促銷活動，我們做得比我們概述的還要好你。

Next question is from the line of Aaron Viswanathan of RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Aaron Viswanathan。

When you look at North America, you guys have been talking about 10% volume growth for a little while. Have you seen any kind of downside to that? We have seen it in some categories. There was some greater destocking in September and December. Maybe you can just give us an update on what you're hearing from your customers as far as -- and again, what gives you that confidence in that 10%? And then could you also provide us with like maybe a '24 outlook on new capacity, what that should provide?

當你看看北美時，你們一直在談論 10% 的銷量增長。你有沒有看到任何缺點？我們已經在某些類別中看到了它。 9 月和 12 月的去庫存量有所增加。或許您可以向我們提供有關您從客戶那裡聽到的最新消息——再一次，是什麼讓您對這 10% 充滿信心？然後你能不能給我們提供一個關於新產能的 24 世紀展望，應該提供什麼？

Well, so I think the third quarter and as you rightly point out, the month of September was really disappointing. The fourth quarter as we talk about North America, we were on track to have a pretty good volume performance in the fourth quarter. And then the last week of the year, the holiday week, things basically shut down. Now having said that, and only 5 weeks into the year, things are really off to a strong start. So -- but as I said, we're only 5 weeks in, so don't you read too much into that, but all signs point to -- what we're hearing from the customers, all signs point that we should have a pretty firm performance this year.

嗯，所以我認為第三季度，正如你正確指出的那樣，9 月份真的令人失望。第四季度，當我們談論北美時，我們有望在第四季度取得相當不錯的銷量表現。然後是一年的最後一周，也就是假期週，一切基本上都停擺了。話雖如此，今年才過去 5 週，事情確實有了一個良好的開端。所以 - 但正如我所說，我們只有 5 週，所以你不要讀得太多，但所有跡像都表明 - 我們從客戶那裡聽到的，所有跡像都表明我們應該今年表現相當堅挺。

And as I said, our confidence with our number considering the backdrop of a flat market is entirely centered on carbonated soft drink and sparkling water, some energy guys where they have penetrated more retail outlets and they're growing and/or we've gained a greater share of that customer as compared to where we were last year.

正如我所說，考慮到市場平坦的背景，我們對我們的數字的信心完全集中在碳酸軟飲料和蘇打水上，一些能源公司已經滲透到更多的零售店並且他們正在增長和/或我們已經獲得與去年相比，該客戶的份額更大。

I think we -- we said in the prepared remarks that CapEx looking at $500 million next year. We obviously have a fair amount of capacity coming online in North America and Europe this year. And so we will have increasing capacity next year to absorb further growth as those lines come through learning curve and produce more cans.

我認為我們——我們在準備好的評論中說過，明年的資本支出將達到 5 億美元。顯然，今年我們在北美和歐洲有相當數量的產能上線。因此，隨著這些生產線通過學習曲線並生產更多罐頭，明年我們將增加產能以吸收進一步的增長。

And then on Europe, there's a segment income recovery effort, I guess, underway. Maybe you can just give us an update on how you're thinking about how that segment evolves and maybe get back to 2019 levels or 2018 levels in '24? Or how are you thinking about [segmenting] from there?

然後在歐洲，我猜正在進行部分收入恢復工作。也許您可以向我們提供有關您如何考慮該細分市場如何演變的最新信息，並可能回到 24 年的 2019 年水平或 2018 年水平？或者您如何考慮從那裡進行[細分]？

Okay. I'm sorry. Again, in the prepared remarks, we expressed our belief that with some modest volume growth this year and the renegotiation of numerous contracts where we more appropriately reset base pricing plus pass-throughs for inflationary items and recovered some past inflation that we expect the '23 segment income to be halfway back to '21. That is, if you took '21 and '22, we should be somewhere in between.

好的。對不起。同樣，在準備好的評論中，我們表示我們相信，隨著今年銷量的適度增長和大量合同的重新談判，我們更適當地重新設定基本定價加上通貨膨脹項目的轉嫁，並恢復了我們預計 23 年的一些過去通貨膨脹部門收入將回到 21 年的一半。也就是說，如果你選了 21 年和 22 年，我們應該介於兩者之間。

Next question is from the line of Christopher Parkinson of Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Christopher Parkinson。

This is John on for Chris. Can you please break out the various substrates that led to some weakness in the fourth quarter? And then what specific substrates give you optimism in 2023?

這是約翰替克里斯。您能否分解導致第四季度出現一些疲軟的各種因素？那麼在 2023 年，哪些具體的底物讓您感到樂觀？

I'm assuming you're specifically talking about beverage and North American beverage, am I correct?

我假設您是專門談論飲料和北美飲料，對嗎？

Yes, that is correct.

對，那是正確的。

Yes. So listen, we were up -- in North -- in the Americas, we were up 4%, which was double-digit growth in Central and South America and a little bit less than 0.5% in North America. We had previously thought we might be up 2% to 3% in North America. As I said, we were tracking for that, and basically, across all product lines or all end markets that we support in our North American beverage business, shipments -- I don't want to say they shut down the last week of the year. But certainly, the holiday week between Christmas and New Year's shipments were very light. The pull from customers was very light, but that was across the board. I wouldn't necessarily ascribe it to any one end market versus another.

是的。所以聽著，我們在北美 - 在美洲，我們增長了 4%，這是中美洲和南美洲的兩位數增長，北美略低於 0.5%。我們以前認為我們在北美可能會增長 2% 到 3%。正如我所說，我們一直在跟踪這一點，基本上，我們在北美飲料業務支持的所有產品線或所有終端市場，出貨量——我不想說他們在今年的最後一周關閉.但可以肯定的是，聖誕節和新年之間的假期週出貨量非常少。來自客戶的拉力很小，但這是全面的。我不一定將其歸因於任何一個終端市場與另一個終端市場。

Next question is from Adam Josephson of KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Adam Josephson。

Tim, one on Brazil. My understanding is last year, cans lost some share to returnable bottles for economic reasons. The Brazilian economy had a rough go of it and there was some trading down going on. You mentioned the year is off to a bit of a slow start there, but you're expecting a recovery thereafter. Can you just talk about how you're expecting cans to do relative to returnable bottles? As distinct from last year, are you expecting the economy to get better? What exactly are you expecting regarding Brazil this year?

蒂姆，一個是關於巴西的。我的理解是去年，出於經濟原因，易拉罐失去了一些可回收瓶的份額。巴西經濟經歷了一段艱難時期，一些交易正在下滑。你提到今年開局有點緩慢，但你預計此後會出現復甦。你能談談你期望罐頭相對於可回收瓶子的表現如何嗎？與去年不同，您是否預計經濟會好轉？您對今年的巴西有何期待？

Yes. So we were -- I mean, I'll give you -- if you want the exact number for Brazil, I'll give it to you. I don't know what you guys do with all this data, but I think we were up 13% or 14% in the fourth quarter in Brazil. So tremendous performance in the fourth quarter. The first quarter of last year was really weak. So even though we're off to a slower start here in the first quarter, we're fairly confident in Brazil having a good performance this year. I think our -- I think if I was to go back or you were to go back and look at last year's transcript, we probably see that we in the market -- I think we were down about 20%. The market was down about 25% in the first quarter of last year.

是的。所以我們——我的意思是，我會給你——如果你想要巴西的確切數字，我會給你。我不知道你們如何處理所有這些數據，但我認為巴西第四季度增長了 13% 或 14%。如此巨大的表現在第四季度。去年第一季度真的很疲軟。因此，儘管我們在第一季度的開局較慢，但我們對巴西今年的良好表現充滿信心。我認為我們 - 我認為如果我要回去或者你要回去看看去年的成績單，我們可能會看到我們在市場上 - 我認為我們下跌了大約 20%。去年第一季度市場下跌了約 25%。

Having said that, the performance over the last 3 quarters last year, I think we ended up down 1.5% for the full year. So we almost clawed back the entire first quarter shortfall. I think we're where at, I think most fillers and most consumers in a market like Brazil prefer the aluminum beverage can over glass, okay? The glass guys might want to tell you otherwise, but I think history over the last 10, 15, 20 years, will tell you otherwise.

話雖如此，去年最後三個季度的表現，我認為我們全年下跌了 1.5%。所以我們幾乎收回了整個第一季度的缺口。我認為我們所處的位置，我認為像巴西這樣的市場中的大多數填料和大多數消費者更喜歡鋁製飲料罐而不是玻璃，好嗎？玻璃人可能想告訴你其他的事情，但我認為過去 10 年、15 年、20 年的歷史會告訴你事實並非如此。

And so we're pretty confident that the flexibility of cans to produce numerous sizes with numerous decorations to promote the product on the shelf is far superior than the bottle. And I think, as we've said before, you can get all hung up looking at 6 months, 1 year performance in Brazil. I think if you look at a period of time, 3 to 5 years, and I don't care when you want to start that period of time and when you want to end it, you take 3- and 5-year chunks of time. You're going to see can penetration rates higher and you're going to see absolute level of can volumes higher. And we continue to believe the Brazilian market is going to be a tremendous market for the aluminum beverage can.

因此，我們非常有信心，罐頭可以生產多種尺寸和多種裝飾以在貨架上推廣產品的靈活性遠遠優於瓶子。而且我認為，正如我們之前所說的那樣，您可能會在巴西看到 6 個月、1 年的表現時完全掛斷電話。我想如果你看一段時間，3 到 5 年，我不在乎你想什麼時候開始這段時間，什麼時候結束，你需要 3 年和 5 年的時間塊.你會看到罐頭滲透率更高，你會看到罐頭體積的絕對水平更高。我們仍然相信巴西市場將成為鋁製飲料罐的巨大市場。

Got it. And back to North America. So I think some of the energy drink customers, the beer companies, were still implementing price increases late last year and even into early this year. Embedded in your expectation of a flat market, are you expecting much of a return to promotional activity in the summertime, are you not? What exactly are you expecting in terms of price increases, promotions, neither? I'm just trying to understand how you think the market might evolve this year as distinct from whatever. I know you said you think the market was down 8% in the fourth quarter. I don't know if you said what you think it did for the full year, but how are you thinking this year will be different from last year?

知道了。然後回到北美。所以我認為一些能量飲料客戶，啤酒公司，在去年年底甚至今年年初仍在實施價格上漲。出於對市場平穩的預期，您是否期待夏季促銷活動的回歸，不是嗎？在價格上漲、促銷方面，您究竟有什麼期望？我只是想了解您認為今年的市場可能會如何演變，與以往不同。我知道你說過你認為第四季度市場下跌了 8%。我不知道你是否說過你對全年的看法，但你認為今年與去年有何不同？

So I think CMI doesn't published the data anymore. But if I had to -- Tom Fischer and I were looking at this the other day, if we had to try to give you a view as to the full year, I'd tell you that perhaps the market was down in the order of 6% -- 5%, 6%. And I think it all related to fewer imported cans. I think domestically produced cans were probably up 1% and imported cans down 6% or 7%, leading to an overall 5% or 6% decline.

所以我認為 CMI 不再發布數據了。但如果我不得不——湯姆費舍爾和我前幾天正在研究這個，如果我們不得不試圖給你一個關於全年的看法，我會告訴你，也許市場下跌的順序是6%——5%，6%。我認為這一切都與更少的進口罐頭有關。我認為國產罐頭可能上漲 1%，進口罐頭下降 6%或 7%，導致整體下降 5%或 6%。

Do you agree with that, Tom?

你同意嗎，湯姆？

Yes, yes.

是的是的。

So as I said earlier, we've started to see some evidence of promotions. And so Adam, I now live in Florida, we got the office down in Florida. So I've seen some promotional activity in the Tampa area, but I'm not all over the country, but we have started to see 2 for 2s or buy 2 get 2, buy 2 get 1. We're starting to see more activity in the carbonated space. And on the sparkling water side, they never really took their prices up as high as the CSD guys, but they are beginning to promote a bit more as well. And -- but I think that we're -- it's kind of like when you give benefits to people, you never take them back. When you put inflation into the system, it never goes back. So while the rate of inflation is slowing, there's still inflation on a higher base.

所以正如我之前所說，我們已經開始看到一些促銷活動的證據。所以亞當，我現在住在佛羅里達州，我們在佛羅里達州設立了辦公室。所以我在坦帕地區看到了一些促銷活動，但我不在全國各地，但我們已經開始看到 2 送 2 或買 2 送 2，買 2 送 1。我們開始看到更多碳酸化空間中的活動。在蘇打水方面，他們從來沒有真正將價格提高到 CSD 人的價格，但他們也開始促銷更多。而且 - 但我認為我們 - 這有點像當你給人們好處時，你永遠不會收回他們。當你將通貨膨脹引入系統時，它永遠不會倒退。因此，雖然通貨膨脹率正在放緩，但通貨膨脹率仍然較高。

So the consumers are faced with higher and higher cost, even though the rate of that inflation year-over-year is slower. I think only people in Washington and Wall Street can try to tell us inflation is better right now. You cannot tell that to the people in Iowa and Ohio and Oklahoma, the people that are out there working every day, trying to make a living. So for most of us on the call today, we can absorb this. For many people around the country, this is this is a week-to-week situation, and things are more expensive. Now having said that, drinking canned beverages is a small pleasure and people like to give themselves the enjoyment of small pleasures. And I think we will see some moderation in the rate of increase in the costs of canned beverages. And I think we'll see some promotions. And I think the -- our estimate of an overall flat market is -- our current estimate or our current belief that the higher base level of cost that people are feeling at some level is offset by promotional activity at another level.

因此，儘管通貨膨脹率逐年放緩，但消費者面臨著越來越高的成本。我認為只有華盛頓和華爾街的人才能告訴我們通脹現在好轉了。你不能把這些告訴愛荷華州、俄亥俄州和俄克拉荷馬州的人們，這些人每天都在外面工作，試圖謀生。因此，對於今天接聽電話的我們大多數人來說，我們可以吸收這一點。對於全國各地的許多人來說，這是一周又一周的情況，而且東西更貴了。話說回來，喝罐裝飲料是一種小樂趣，人們喜歡給自己帶來小樂趣的享受。我認為我們會看到罐裝飲料成本的增長速度有所放緩。我認為我們會看到一些促銷活動。我認為——我們對整體市場持平的估計是——我們目前的估計或我們目前的信念，即人們在某種程度上感受到的較高基本成本水平被另一個層面的促銷活動所抵消。

And so that may be that those people at the lower end of the economic spectrum are buying less, but the people in the middle and the higher end are buying more as promotions come in. It doesn't have to be equally across the board for all folks depending on their economic situation.

所以這可能是那些處於經濟範圍低端的人購買得更少，但隨著促銷的到來，處於中高端的人購買得更多。大家根據自己的經濟情況。

Next question is from the line of Kyle White of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的凱爾懷特。

The contractual recovery and inflation within the beverage business, do those benefits principally begin in 1Q or is a major reset period for you later in April? Just how should we think about the timing of those benefits?

飲料業務的合同恢復和通貨膨脹，這些好處主要是在第一季度開始還是在 4 月下旬對您來說是一個重要的重置期？我們應該如何考慮這些好處的時機？

Depending on customer and depending on contract and when the contract was renegotiated, it could be January 1, April 1 or July 1. But the large majority, especially in North America -- in North American beverage centered around April 1. On the food can side in North America, more centered on January 1. So thinking about food cans, while there is a significant or a low double-digit decline in tinplate pricing, the price of cans to our customers is almost the same, because we're passing through the PPI to them on January 1. So there is no increase to them. The steel price decline offsets the PPI that they're getting.

根據客戶和合同以及重新談判合同的時間，可能是 1 月 1 日、4 月 1 日或 7 月 1 日。但絕大多數，特別是在北美 - 北美飲料集中在 4 月 1 日左右。在食品罐頭上北美一側，更集中在 1 月 1 日。因此，考慮食品罐頭，雖然馬口鐵價格有顯著或低兩位數的下降，但我們客戶的罐頭價格幾乎相同，因為我們正在通過通過 PPI 在 1 月 1 日給他們。所以他們沒有增加。鋼鐵價格的下跌抵消了他們獲得的 PPI。

Got it. Yes, that makes sense. And then it's been a couple of years since you did the Board-led capital allocation and portfolio review. What's your view of the portfolio now? Do you like the diversification with transit and food and beverage end markets? Or do you see more shareholder value being created by being a pure-play beverage can company?

知道了。是的，這是有道理的。自從您進行董事會主導的資本分配和投資組合審查以來，已經過去了幾年。您現在對投資組合有何看法？您喜歡運輸和食品飲料終端市場的多元化嗎？或者您是否看到作為一家純粹的飲料罐頭公司創造了更多的股東價值？

Yes. I knew this question was coming.

是的。我知道這個問題來了。

I had to get it in.

我必須把它弄進去。

Let's -- no, I know you did. Thank you for the question. Let's be real clear. I think after today, there are 2 beverage can companies that have reported. You're going to see a report from another beverage can company over the next couple of weeks and the other private -- European private beverage can company that has entered the United States. You probably saw their recent rating agencies reports. I think the beverage can world, if we're all being very honest, we all understand it's an expensive business, but it's a business with exceptional upside, and we're prepared to invest the money in the business. But the cash flow performance of all the beverage can businesses in 2022, not very positive. I think you're going to see cash flow performance in other packaging businesses, be they food or industrial or a combination of both, where they've got positive cash flow in 2022. And we happen to be pretty close to breakeven on free cash flow, which what I'm trying to explain to you is the combination of our food and industrial packaging business is generating significant cash flow, offsetting the continued investment in the beverage can business.

讓我們——不，我知道你做到了。感謝你的提問。讓我們說清楚。我想今天之後，有2家飲料罐公司報告了。在接下來的幾週內，您將看到另一家飲料罐公司的報告，以及另一家已進入美國的私人——歐洲私人飲料罐公司的報告。您可能看過他們最近的評級機構報告。我認為飲料可以世界，如果我們都非常誠實，我們都知道這是一項昂貴的業務，但它是一項具有非凡優勢的業務，我們準備將資金投資於該業務。但2022年所有飲料罐企業的現金流表現，都不是很樂觀。我認為你會看到其他包裝業務的現金流表現，無論是食品行業還是工業行業，還是兩者兼而有之，它們在 2022 年將獲得正現金流。而且我們恰好接近自由現金收支平衡流動，我想向你解釋的是我們的食品和工業包裝業務的結合產生了大量現金流，抵消了對飲料罐業務的持續投資。

Now we do believe beverage cans will generate significant cash flow in the future, but you need cash flow to pay your bills. And it's a fantasy to think that cash flow is not important as some investors like to tell us from time to time. And so I think we like the diversification of cash flows. We like cash. With cash, we can pay dividends. With cash, we can buy back stock. With cash, we can make more investments in beverage.

現在我們確實相信飲料罐在未來會產生可觀的現金流，但你需要現金流來支付你的賬單。認為現金流並不像一些投資者不時告訴我們的那樣重要是天方夜譚。所以我認為我們喜歡現金流的多元化。我們喜歡現金。有了現金，我們就可以支付股息。有了現金，我們可以回購股票。有了現金，我們就可以對飲料進行更多的投資。

However, having stated that, we are all about trying to increase shareholder value. I'm a shareholder, just like many of you on the call. I own a lot of shares. I'm all about trying to make more shareholder value. But I'm also all about making cash flow, so we can accomplish all the things we need to accomplish to satisfy the wide variety of investors that we have and the reasons why they invest in a company like Crown.

然而，話雖如此，我們都在努力增加股東價值。我是股東，就像你們中的許多人一樣。我擁有很多股份。我只想努力為股東創造更多價值。但我也致力於創造現金流，因此我們可以完成我們需要完成的所有事情，以滿足我們擁有的各種投資者以及他們投資像 Crown 這樣的公司的原因。

So listen, we've got a couple of new board members. We welcome their input. We think our interests are exactly aligned with their interest, that is to drive further shareholder value by the company for the benefit of shareholders. And we'll see where that takes us.

所以聽著，我們有幾個新的董事會成員。我們歡迎他們的意見。我們認為我們的利益與他們的利益完全一致，即為了股東的利益通過公司進一步推動股東價值。我們將看看它會把我們帶到哪裡。

Next question is from the line of Phil Ng of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Phil Ng。

Well, Tim, you stole my thunder. I was going to ask you about free cash flow. But it's good to see free cash flow is going to certainly accelerate going to 2024. You've talked about a CapEx number close to $500 million which is pretty on par of D&A. Is that a level of CapEx that you think is sustainable for, call it, the next few years starting 2024? And with all that cash, what are you going to do with that cash flow?

好吧，蒂姆，你搶了我的風頭。我正要問你關於自由現金流的問題。但很高興看到自由現金流肯定會加速到 2024 年。你談到了接近 5 億美元的資本支出數字，這與 D&A 相當。從 2024 年開始的未來幾年，您認為這是可持續的資本支出水平嗎？有了這麼多現金，你打算用這些現金流做什麼？

So Phil, let's assume -- and it's a little hard, but let's just go back to -- this question has been asked a number of times over the last several years. And my standard responses, let's hope we get the opportunity to spend more capital. That means there is more growth. We'll -- we had an acceleration -- let's just deal with the North American beverage can market. We had an acceleration of can volumes from about $90 billion to $115 billion to $120 billion from 2019 to 2022, which required an immense amount of capital by the can makers to meet the customer requirements and the consumer demand. I'm hopeful we'll have that period of time occur again in the near future.

所以 Phil，讓我們假設——這有點困難，但讓我們回到過去——這個問題在過去幾年裡被問過很多次。而我的標準回答是，希望我們有機會花費更多的資金。這意味著會有更多的增長。我們將 - 我們有一個加速 - 讓我們只處理北美飲料罐市場。從 2019 年到 2022 年，我們的罐頭產量從大約 900 億美元加速到 1150 億美元到 1200 億美元，這需要罐頭製造商投入大量資金來滿足客戶要求和消費者需求。我希望我們能在不久的將來再次出現那段時間。

And if so, we are prepared to invest ever increasing amounts of capital to meet that customer demand depending upon the economics of contracts we can enter into to get proper returns on those investments. Short of that, if from time to time, there are lower growth expectations or lower conversions from one substrate to another, we are prepared to reduce capital to appropriate maintenance levels and incremental volume growth in a region like Southeast Asia, for example, where I think we're going to continue to have volume growth opportunities. But -- so that's the answer around capital.

如果是這樣，我們準備投入越來越多的資金來滿足客戶的需求，這取決於我們可以簽訂的合同的經濟性，以獲得這些投資的適當回報。除此之外，如果不時出現較低的增長預期或從一種基材到另一種基材的轉化率較低，我們準備將資本減少到適當的維持水平，並在東南亞等地區實現增量增長，例如，我在那裡認為我們將繼續擁有銷量增長的機會。但是——這就是圍繞資本的答案。

It could be -- I think as we sit here today, we're looking at $500 million for '24 and $500 million for '25. It's hard to think that we're going to need to go significantly above $1 billion over that 2-year period. And then we'll see where post-'25 takes us. So that leads to your second part of your question, what am I going to do about cash flow? We're going to get debt down to where we think it's appropriate, given borrowing rates. And we'll continue to assess the level of the dividend. And then obviously, once you're through that, the excess cash flow -- the best way we found to deploy the excess cash flow is to reduce the share flow.

它可能是——我認為當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們正在為 24 年的 5 億美元和 25 年的 5 億美元尋找資金。很難想像我們需要在 2 年期間大幅超過 10 億美元。然後我們將看到 post-'25 將我們帶向何方。所以這就引出了你問題的第二部分，我將如何處理現金流？考慮到借貸利率，我們將把債務降至我們認為合適的水平。我們將繼續評估股息水平。然後很明顯，一旦你完成了，多餘的現金流——我們發現配置多餘現金流的最好方法是減少股票流量。

That's super helpful. On Europe, can you remind us how you're set up now? I mean you guys have done a lot of good work contractually renegotiating on this. I just want a better understanding how you derisk as it relates to energy. Have you kind of restructure it where it's more of a pass-through? And when we think about lower energy prices this year in Europe, is that a good guide going forward? And just lastly, you've clawed back half of the shortfall. When do you expect to kind of fully recoup that? Is that a 2024 event or is that going to take a little more time?

這非常有幫助。關於歐洲，你能提醒我們你現在的安排嗎？我的意思是你們在合同重新談判方面做了很多出色的工作。我只是想更好地了解您如何降低與能源相關的風險。你有沒有對它進行重組，讓它更像是一個傳遞？當我們考慮今年歐洲較低的能源價格時，這是一個很好的未來指南嗎？最後，您已經彌補了一半的不足。您預計什麼時候可以完全收回成本？那是 2024 年的活動還是需要更多時間？

Phil, so in terms of your last question, in Europe, we expect to get back to the 2021 level by the end of '24. Largely, this is rightsizing the contracts that required energy recovery within the contracts. The lower prices that we're seeing now in energy, Phil, we've gone out and we've hedged a fair amount of the energy exposure that we had this year to eliminate any volatility. So embedded in the numbers that we've given you, takes that into consideration.

菲爾，關於你的最後一個問題，在歐洲，我們預計到 24 年底將回到 2021 年的水平。在很大程度上，這是對需要在合同範圍內回收能源的合同進行合理調整。我們現在看到的能源價格較低，Phil，我們已經走出去，我們已經對沖了今年我們擁有的相當數量的能源風險敞口，以消除任何波動。所以嵌入我們給你的數字中，考慮到這一點。

So if you think about the lower energy prices, a potential upside, probably -- maybe on a minor level, but if you think about it, by the time we get into '24, we're rightsizing the rest of the contract, so we could get that as a pass-through. So if it stayed at a lower level, that would pass through to the customers, but allow us to get back to our income level that we like.

因此，如果你考慮到較低的能源價格，一個潛在的上行空間，可能 - 可能是一個較小的水平，但如果你考慮一下，到我們進入 24 世紀時，我們正在調整剩餘的合同，所以我們可以將其作為傳遞。因此，如果它保持在較低水平，那將傳遞給客戶，但讓我們回到我們喜歡的收入水平。

Next question is from the line of Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

I wanted to ask on transit. And if you could just help us think about some of the profit outlook and some of the key kind of year-on-year drivers for 2023, especially in the context of a weaker kind of macro, kind of where the book-to-bill sits entering the year, kind of the magnitude and cadence of some of the restructuring savings, and how those would layer in?

我想問一下轉機。如果您能幫我們想想 2023 年的一些利潤前景和一些關鍵的同比驅動因素，尤其是在宏觀經濟較弱的情況下，比如訂單到賬單進入今年，一些重組節省的規模和節奏如何，這些將如何分層？

Yes, sure. So I think as we described earlier, from a volume perspective, we'll expect volumes to be down in the first half of the year. And we expect volumes to recover in the second half of the year. Largely, the comps actually become easier in the third and fourth quarter from a volume perspective. I think we're doing a real good job in the business as to holding price or put a different way, recovering our costs. Significant overhead reduction program that we announced and implemented in the second quarter last year where we're looking to take out in excess of 600 heads. These are heads above the factory floor.

是的，當然。所以我認為，正如我們之前所描述的，從銷量的角度來看，我們預計今年上半年銷量會下降。我們預計銷量將在今年下半年恢復。很大程度上，從數量的角度來看，第三和第四季度的比賽實際上變得更容易了。我認為我們在保持價格或換一種方式收回成本方面做得非常好。我們在去年第二季度宣布並實施了重大的間接費用削減計劃，我們希望減少 600 多人。這些是工廠車間上方的頭部。

And I think through the end of December, we're at least 2/3 of the way through that process. We recognized a fair amount of value last year and that in the fourth quarter, and we're going to continue to accelerate the savings each month. If you thought about it, it's $2 million to $3 million a month of overhead savings at least you're going to have. So the backlog principally in our automation business, that is equipment and tools. But automated packaging technologies continues in about the $280 million range. So it's on the order of a full year's worth of equipment that we sell is the backlog. And from time to time, we still struggle with supply chain for motors and circuit boards and things like that. But the situation is beginning to ease and as we get more supply from those -- the guys who supply those integrated parts, we can finish assembly and ship products.

我認為到 12 月底，我們至少完成了該過程的 2/3。我們在去年和第四季度認識到了相當大的價值，我們將繼續每個月加速節省。如果您考慮一下，每月至少可以節省 200 萬到 300 萬美元的管理費用。因此，積壓主要在我們的自動化業務中，即設備和工具。但自動化包裝技術仍保持在約 2.8 億美元的範圍內。因此，我們銷售的一整年設備的訂單是積壓的。時不時地，我們仍然在為電機和電路板之類的供應鏈而苦苦掙扎。但情況開始緩和，隨著我們從那些供應集成零件的人那裡獲得更多供應，我們可以完成組裝和運送產品。

So actually, as we sit here today, the outlook for that business is quite strong this year despite -- from an income perspective, despite what you might think about a softening industrial economy. We think that the need for back-end automation lowering cost with automation, we think we're really well positioned in that business to benefit from.

所以實際上，正如我們今天坐在這裡，儘管從收入的角度來看，儘管你可能認為工業經濟正在走軟，但今年該業務的前景相當強勁。我們認為後端自動化的需求通過自動化降低成本，我們認為我們在該業務中處於有利地位，可以從中受益。

And I guess along -- one just on -- I mean, is there an actual expectation of the volumes recovering? Or is it purely easy comps that frame the kind of current outlook?

而且我猜 - 一個剛剛 - 我的意思是，是否有實際的銷量恢復預期？還是構成當前前景的純粹簡單的組合？

No, I think -- we think that as we get towards the fourth quarter, not only the easier comps from the third and fourth quarter, but we start to see volumes start to reaccelerate in the fourth quarter.

不，我認為——我們認為，隨著第四季度的臨近，不僅第三和第四季度比較容易，而且我們開始看到第四季度銷量開始重新加速。

Next question is from the line of Mike Roxland of Truist Securities.

下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Tim, I wonder if you could just talk about the cadence of volume growth you expect in North America in 2023. Obviously, you're confident in terms of achieving a 10% volume growth. But I just want to get a sense of the case, particularly with your new capacity (inaudible) beginning.

蒂姆，我想知道你是否可以談談你預計 2023 年北美銷量增長的節奏。顯然，你有信心實現 10% 的銷量增長。但我只是想了解一下情況，尤其是在你的新能力（聽不清）開始的時候。

No, that's a good question. I'm hesitant to say anything, but you guys scratch the surface. You guys scratch everything. So -- but as we said, we're 5 weeks in and things are really good. If I had to take a look at the month of January, we're up somewhere between 5% and 10%, and we're going to bring a lot more capacity on -- beginning this month with the second line in Martinsville. And Bowling Green is back up and running, full steam ahead as compared to last year at this time when it was down from the tornado. And we bring Mesquite up, beginning in the middle of the year. So you should expect volume growth to accelerate second, third quarter. But I'm not -- what we're trying to tell you is that we have volume growth right now as well. We're not waiting for all that capacity to come up, things are pretty good right now.

不，這是個好問題。我很猶豫要不要說什麼，但你們只是觸及表面。你們什麼都刮。所以——但正如我們所說，我們已經進行了 5 週，一切都非常好。如果我不得不看一下 1 月份，我們的增長率在 5% 到 10% 之間，我們將增加更多的產能——從本月開始在馬丁斯維爾的第二條生產線。與去年此時從龍捲風中倒下時相比，鮑靈格林已經恢復運轉，全速前進。我們從年中開始種植 Mesquite。因此，您應該預計第二、第三季度的銷量增長會加速。但我不是——我們想告訴你的是，我們現在也有銷量增長。我們不是在等待所有的容量出現，現在情況非常好。

Got it. And then just one quick follow-up. Can you talk about what has changed internally regarding how you vet your customers' growth forecast and their demand for cans? Now I realize you're close to your customers, but I'm just trying to get a sense of what's changed with your interactions with your customers, the diligence that gives you more -- and diligence. What gives you more confidence regarding their forecast now relative to the way that you did things historically?

知道了。然後只是一個快速跟進。您能否談談在內部如何審查客戶的增長預測和他們對罐頭的需求方面發生了什麼變化？現在我意識到你離你的客戶很近，但我只是想了解你與客戶的互動發生了什麼變化，為你帶來更多的勤奮——以及勤奮。相對於你過去做事的方式，什麼讓你對他們現在的預測更有信心？

So I think -- I want to -- what I will say is we had a little blip perhaps in our understanding of the market last year as we headed into the summer months and into the third quarter. I will tell you that the disappointing thing for Kevin and myself is that we had that blip, because we're not a fly at 30,000-feet operation. We're -- Kevin and I are and everybody [shorts] every day. Somebody once asked me what I do as a CEO, and I told him I chase people all day long. And so I think part of the problem with the success that we had in the North American beverage business over the last several years, we kind of took it for granted that the customers' forecast were accurate. And perhaps at some level, we didn't realize the customers were concerned with supply chain, and they were overestimating. So we're back to square one, chasing people all day long and doubting people. And that doesn't mean doubting our customers, that means staying on top of our team internally to make sure we don't have that happen again.

所以我想——我想——我要說的是，當我們進入夏季和進入第三季度時，我們對去年市場的理解可能有一點點波動。我會告訴你，讓凱文和我自己感到失望的是我們遇到了那個曇花一現，因為我們不是在 30,000 英尺高空操作的蒼蠅。我們 - 凱文和我以及每個人每天都[短褲]。曾經有人問我做CEO是做什麼的，我告訴他我整天追人。因此，我認為過去幾年我們在北美飲料業務取得成功的部分問題是，我們理所當然地認為客戶的預測是準確的。也許在某種程度上，我們沒有意識到客戶關心供應鏈，他們高估了。於是又回到原點，整天追人，懷疑人。這並不意味著懷疑我們的客戶，這意味著在我們的團隊內部保持領先地位，以確保我們不會再次發生這種情況。

Next question is from the line of Gabe Hajde of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Gabe Hajde。

I had a question about, I guess, utilization or capacity and just -- I know you won't speak to what you guys are running at. But just from an industry standpoint, it looks like we're sort of in the maybe the high 80s exiting 2022. And I think, obviously, you guys had renewed a lot of contracts. Domestically, the industry has. So do you feel like you're -- and the industry is in a comfortable spot from a contract perspective maybe until the middle of the decade? Historically speaking, high 80s, low 90s wasn't a great spot for the beverage can industry and perhaps things have changed to the extent that there are more sizes -- size requirements and maybe label changeovers and things like that? Just how you're thinking about optimal utilization rates for the industry.

我想我有一個關於利用率或容量的問題，只是 - 我知道你不會談論你們正在運行的內容。但從行業的角度來看，看起來我們可能處於 2022 年的 80 年代高點。而且我認為，很明顯，你們已經續簽了很多合同。在國內，行業有。那麼，您是否覺得自己 - 從合同的角度來看，這個行業可能會處於一個舒適的位置，直到本世紀中期？從歷史上看，80 後和 90 後並不是飲料罐行業的好地方，也許情況已經發生了變化，有更多的尺寸——尺寸要求，也許標籤轉換等等？您是如何考慮行業的最佳利用率的。

Yes. So you bring up a good point, different sizes -- change over to different sizes and the complication, sometimes it's running different sizes, will reduce capacity from manufacturers rated speeds to what is actually achievable when you bring down a size and you bring back up another size. I think that you're right to point out, we would prefer utilization to be in the 92% to 95% range. I would say that we're at least at that level. I can't comment on the other manufacturers in the marketplace.

是的。所以你提出了一個很好的觀點，不同的尺寸 - 改變到不同的尺寸和復雜性，有時它運行不同的尺寸，將降低製造商額定速度的容量到當你降低尺寸並恢復時實際可實現的速度另一個尺寸。我認為您指出的是正確的，我們希望利用率在 92% 到 95% 的範圍內。我會說我們至少處於那個水平。我無法評論市場上的其他製造商。

But I will say that much of the decline that we had last year will -- more than [all] of the decline was related to imported cans. So the domestic produced cans were actually up last year. So I don't know if the industry is as low as you think it is right now. And I think there's been some capacity realignment or the announcement of some capacity realignment by 1 or 2 of the other manufacturers. So I think we're not in as bad a shape as in the industry as you think we are.

但我要說的是，我們去年的大部分下降將 - 超過[全部]下降與進口罐頭有關。所以去年國產罐其實是漲的。所以我不知道現在這個行業是否像你想像的那樣低。而且我認為其他 1 或 2 家製造商已經進行了一些產能調整或宣布了一些產能調整。因此，我認為我們的行業狀況並不像您認為的那樣糟糕。

But I -- we'd rather be 92% to 95%, as you point out. And now the contracts, a lot of -- again, I can't comment on the competition, but so many of the contracts are out several years. We're not in the near term too concerned with where the market is today. We'd be more concerned with where the market is a few years from now.

但我 - 正如您指出的那樣，我們寧願達到 92% 到 95%。現在的合同，很多——再說一次，我不能對競爭發表評論，但是很多合同已經好幾年了。我們在短期內不太關心今天的市場情況。我們會更關心幾年後的市場情況。

Okay. And I kind of segue to the next question. A lot of those imported cans, some of them, a decent chunk, maybe 1/3 were coming from the Middle East. And so the logical part of me says to the extent they were able to find their way into North America, they could certainly maybe find their way into Europe. I think you guys are talking about low to mid-single-digit growth. What we heard from our competitor was mid- to high single-digit growth. Still a decent amount of capacity coming there. Is that a concern or something that you guys are chasing people down for as you look at the European market? And then I think we did see an announcement of a second, I guess, Chinese-sponsored plant over in Europe. Any thoughts on that?

好的。我有點繼續下一個問題。很多進口罐頭，其中一些，相當大的一塊，可能有 1/3 來自中東。因此，我的邏輯部分說，就他們能夠找到進入北美的方式而言，他們當然可以找到進入歐洲的方式。我認為你們正在談論中低個位數的增長。我們從競爭對手那裡聽到的是中高個位數的增長。那裡仍有相當數量的容量。當你看歐洲市場時，這是一個問題還是你們正在追逐人們的東西？然後我想我們確實看到了第二個公告，我猜，中國在歐洲贊助的工廠。對此有什麼想法嗎？

Well, any time you export cans or customers or companies want to import cans, there's a significant freight component to that. They are not competitive to [our] locally produced cans. So somebody has to absorb freight cost, whether that's the customer and/or the company that's -- the can company that's importing to support their business. So we're not overly concerned with cans being imported in from the Middle East into Europe or the United States, unless customers want to pay that incremental freight costs. And I don't think they want to do that.

那麼，任何時候您出口罐頭或客戶或公司想要進口罐頭時，都會有一個重要的貨運部分。它們與 [我們的] 本地生產的罐頭相比沒有競爭力。因此，有人必須承擔運費，無論是客戶和/或公司——進口以支持其業務的罐頭公司。因此，我們並不過分關注從中東進口到歐洲或美國的罐頭，除非客戶願意支付增加的運費。我認為他們不想那樣做。

The European market, listen, it continues to grow. We don't happen to be where the Chinese -- the new Chinese -- rumored Chinese plant is going. We don't happen to be very large in that region. It is for a specific customer. And in the near term, we don't see that impacting us. Again, I can't comment on how it may impact others, but we don't see that impacting us.

歐洲市場，聽著，它繼續增長。我們並不碰巧是中國人——新中國人——傳聞中的中國工廠要去的地方。我們碰巧在那個地區不是很大。它是針對特定客戶的。在短期內，我們認為這不會影響我們。同樣，我無法評論它如何影響其他人，但我們認為這不會影響我們。

Our last question is from the line of Anthony Pettinari of Citi.

我們的最後一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

I just had a question on specialty cans. I think at the Investor Day, you had guided to a 25% specialty can mix in North America by the end of '22. So I'm just wondering where you stand there now and where you think that could go once the announced capacity adds are completed? And maybe just broadly, if you've seen any sort of change in competitive intensity specifically for specialty sizes?

我只是有一個關於特種罐的問題。我想在投資者日，你已經指導到 22 年底在北美有 25% 的專業可以混合。所以我只是想知道你現在站在哪裡，以及你認為一旦宣布的容量增加完成後會去哪裡？也許只是廣泛地，如果您看到專門針對專業規模的競爭強度發生任何變化？

Yes. So I think -- I don't know if we're at 25% or we're at 23.5% or 24%, but we're in that range. And I think the market will continue to demand more specialty cans as opposed to the standard 12-ounce can, whether that's 16-ounce cans or smaller portion sizes or sleek -- slim 12-ounce cans versus the standard 12-ounce can. All of the capacity we're putting in has multiple -- or multi-sized capability, be it taller cans, shorter cans, fatter cans, skinnier cans.

是的。所以我認為——我不知道我們是在 25% 還是在 23.5% 或 24%，但我們在這個範圍內。而且我認為市場將繼續需要更多的特種罐而不是標準的 12 盎司罐，無論是 16 盎司罐還是更小的份量或光滑的 - 纖細的 12 盎司罐與標準 12 盎司罐。我們投入的所有容量都具有多種或多種尺寸的能力，無論是更高的罐頭、更短的罐頭、更胖的罐頭、更瘦的罐頭。

So as the market demands or requires different sizes, we're well positioned to support our customers with those sizes. I would point out that -- and again, I always hope that somebody is looking at this. And while our specialty can mix might be slightly below some others in the marketplace, I don't think our margin profile is lower than theirs.

因此，隨著市場需求或需要不同的尺寸，我們可以很好地為這些尺寸的客戶提供支持。我要指出的是——再一次，我總是希望有人在關注這個問題。雖然我們的專業可以混合可能略低於市場上的其他一些，但我認為我們的利潤率並不低於他們的。

So I think we do a pretty good job managing the business -- the portfolio of customer business we have and running our industrial infrastructure to maximize income regardless of the size of the cans we're making.

所以我認為我們在管理業務方面做得很好——我們擁有的客戶業務組合和運行我們的工業基礎設施以最大化收入，無論我們製造的罐頭大小如何。

Great. Great. I appreciate that, and that's very helpful. Just one -- maybe one quick one last one. Kevin, is there like a rule of thumb on EPS sensitivity to changes in the euro and maybe interest rates?

偉大的。偉大的。我很感激，這非常有幫助。就一個——也許是一個快速的最後一個。凱文，關於每股收益對歐元和利率變化的敏感性是否有經驗法則？

On the euro, a 0.1 move typically is a point -- is a $0.02 change in EPS. On interest rate sensitivity, I don't have that in front of me.

就歐元而言，0.1 的變動通常是一個點——即 EPS 的 0.02 美元變化。關於利率敏感性，我面前沒有。

Why don't we reflect on that? And we'll try to give you a better feel for that in April. It's kind of -- you can go through the 10-K and look at our data as to whether it's fixed or floating, and you can apply rates to that. But as Kevin said, I don't think we have that with us right now.

我們為什麼不反省一下呢？我們將在 4 月份嘗試讓您對此有更好的感受。這有點——你可以通過 10-K 並查看我們的數據，看看它是固定的還是浮動的，你可以對其應用利率。但正如凱文所說，我認為我們現在還沒有。

So Nicole, I think you said that was the last question. I want to thank everybody for joining us. That will conclude the call today, and we'll speak with you again in April. Bye now.

妮可，我想你說過這是最後一個問題。我要感謝大家加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束，我們將在 4 月再次與您交談。再見了。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。