Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today's Coca-Cola Europacific Partner's Q4 and FY 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I must advise you that this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, Sarah Willett.

    你好,謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加今天的可口可樂歐洲太平洋合作夥伴第四季度和 2022 財年業績電話會議。 (操作員說明)我必須通知您,正在錄製此電話會議。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和公司戰略副總裁 Sarah Willett。

  • Please go ahead, Sarah.

    請繼續,莎拉。

  • Sarah Willett - VP of IR

    Sarah Willett - VP of IR

  • Thank you all for joining us today. I'm here with Damian Gammell, our CEO; and Nik Jhangiani, our CFO. Before we begin with our opening remarks on our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022, a reminder of our cautionary statements.

    感謝大家今天加入我們。我和我們的首席執行官 Damian Gammell 一起來的;和我們的首席財務官 Nik Jhangiani。在我們開始就第四季度和 2022 年全年的業績發表開場白之前,請提醒我們的警示性聲明。

  • This call will contain forward-looking management comments and other statements reflecting our outlook. These comments should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in today's release as well as the detailed cautionary statements found in reports filed with the U.K., U.S., Dutch and Spanish authorities. A copy of this information is available on our website at www.cocacolaep.com.

    此次電話會議將包含前瞻性的管理層評論和反映我們前景的其他聲明。這些評論應與今天發布的警示性語言以及在向英國、美國、荷蘭和西班牙當局提交的報告中找到的詳細警示性聲明一起考慮。該信息的副本可在我們的網站 www.cocacolaep.com 上獲得。

  • Prepared remarks will be made by Damian and Nik and accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions.

    準備好的評論將由 Damian 和 Nik 發表,並附有幻燈片。然後我們會將電話轉給您的問題。

  • Unless otherwise stated, metrics presented today will be on a comparable and FX-neutral basis throughout. Any growth rate will be also presented on a pro forma basis. With the full year financial year of Coca-Cola Europacific Partners behind us, please note that pro forma growth rates will no longer be relevant when talking about FY '23 and beyond.

    除非另有說明,否則今天提供的指標將始終基於可比和外匯中性的基礎。任何增長率也將在備考基礎上呈現。隨著可口可樂歐洲太平洋合作夥伴的全年財政年度過去,請注意,在談論 23 財年及以後時,預計增長率將不再相關。

  • Following the call, a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website. And finally, before I turn over the call to our CEO, Damian, if you live in GB, please not worry about the recent news coverage about the much loved brand and one of my personal favorite Lilt. It is not disappearing, but being rebranded as Fanta pineapple and grapefruit. So on that positive note, over to you, Damian.

    電話會議結束後,將盡快在我們的網站上提供完整的成績單。最後,在我將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Damian 之前,如果您住在英國,請不要擔心最近有關這個備受喜愛的品牌和我個人最喜歡的 Lilt 品牌的新聞報導。它並沒有消失,而是被更名為芬達菠蘿和葡萄柚。所以在積極的方面,交給你了,達米安。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Sarah, and many thanks to everyone joining us today. Before we start with our key messages, I'd particularly like to thank all of my colleagues at CCEP for their incredible commitment and hard work throughout what was our first full year as Coca-Cola Europacific Partners. And indeed, what a great year it has been. I am delighted with our financial performance achieving strong top and bottom line growth with revenue and profits both ahead of 2019 levels, value share gains and a very impressive free cash flow generation.

    謝謝莎拉,也非常感謝今天加入我們的每一個人。在開始我們的關鍵信息之前,我要特別感謝我在 CCEP 的所有同事,感謝他們在我們作為可口可樂歐洲太平洋合作夥伴的第一個完整年度中所做的令人難以置信的承諾和辛勤工作。事實上,這是多麼美好的一年。我很高興我們的財務業績實現了強勁的收入和利潤增長,收入和利潤均超過 2019 年的水平,價值份額收益和非常可觀的自由現金流產生。

  • This has allowed us to pay a record dividend to our shareholders. As a diverse and sustainable bottler, we firmly believe we are well placed for growth in 2023 and beyond. We also operate within a resilient and growing category with great brands that our consumers continue to love. We will continue to invest and innovate in these brands and their packaging supporting a solid growth platform for all our customers.

    這使我們能夠向股東支付創紀錄的股息。作為一家多元化和可持續發展的裝瓶商,我們堅信我們有能力在 2023 年及以後實現增長。我們還在一個有彈性和不斷增長的類別中運營,擁有我們的消費者繼續喜愛的偉大品牌。我們將繼續對這些品牌及其包裝進行投資和創新,為所有客戶提供穩固的增長平台。

  • We are confident in the future and are fully committed to the higher midterm objectives announced at our Capital Markets Day in November. And finally, we are very proud of our strong relationship and alignment with the Coca-Cola Company, and all other valued brand partners.

    我們對未來充滿信心,並完全致力於實現我們在 11 月資本市場日宣布的更高的中期目標。最後,我們為我們與可口可樂公司以及所有其他重要品牌合作夥伴的牢固關係和一致性感到非常自豪。

  • So this slide and graphics will be familiar. We have a clear but vital purpose to refresh Europe and API and critically to make a difference for all our communities and our stakeholders. And we have a clear focus around great people, great service, great beverages, all done sustainably for a better shared future.

    所以這張幻燈片和圖形會很熟悉。我們有一個明確但重要的目標,即更新歐洲和 API,並至關重要地為我們所有的社區和利益相關者帶來改變。我們明確關注優秀的人才、優質的服務、優質的飲料,所有這些都以可持續的方式進行,以實現更美好的共享未來。

  • So now I'd like to touch on each of these areas as we look back at 2022. CCEP's ambition for growth and sustainability depend on our great people and the well-being and safety of our colleagues remains our number 1 priority as a company. We finished 2022 with a world-class safety performance. We are committed to encouraging all our employees to live happy, healthy lives so that they're engaged at work and able to perform at their best.

    現在,當我們回顧 2022 年時,我想談談這些領域中的每一個。CCEP 的增長和可持續發展的雄心取決於我們優秀的員工,而我們同事的福祉和安全仍然是我們公司的首要任務。我們以世界一流的安全性能結束了 2022 年。我們致力於鼓勵所有員工過上快樂、健康的生活,以便他們能夠投入工作並發揮最佳表現。

  • I'm pleased many of you got to see this for yourselves during the market and plant tours as part of our recent capital markets event in London. We now offer a new employee assistance program or EAP in all markets, providing all our employees with access to counseling, advice or specialist information.

    作為我們最近在倫敦舉行的資本市場活動的一部分,我很高興你們中的許多人在市場和工廠參觀期間親眼目睹了這一點。我們現在在所有市場提供新的員工援助計劃或 EAP,為我們所有的員工提供諮詢、建議或專家信息。

  • We accelerated our diversity and inclusion progress, and this continues to be recognized externally, too. I am pleased that we are recently included on the 2023 Bloomberg Gender Equality Index for the third year running. This demonstrates our commitment to gender diversity and equality and fostering an inclusive culture for everyone at CCEP.

    我們加快了多元化和包容性進程,這也繼續得到外部認可。我很高興我們最近連續第三年被列入 2023 年彭博社性別平等指數。這表明我們致力於性別多樣性和平等,並為 CCEP 的每個人培養包容性文化。

  • We continue to encourage a culture of innovation and improve our digital tools in the workplace and we were awarded gold at the U.K. Employee Experience Awards in recognition of our program.

    我們繼續鼓勵創新文化並改進我們在工作場所的數字工具,我們在英國員工體驗獎中獲得了金獎,以表彰我們的計劃。

  • Great service remains a key priority and is a critical driver of our performance. Once again, we were the largest creator of value in the retail channel for our customers within FMCG in Europe and in NARTD and API according to Nielsen. And in Australia, we were the largest value creator within the alcohol category to gaining over 250 basis points of value share in the RTD space.

    優質服務仍然是重中之重,也是我們業績的關鍵驅動因素。根據尼爾森的數據,我們再次成為歐洲 FMCG 以及 NARTD 和 API 客戶零售渠道最大的價值創造者。在澳大利亞,我們是酒精類別中最大的價值創造者,在 RTD 領域獲得了超過 250 個基點的價值份額。

  • I'm extremely proud of the way we successfully navigated supply chain challenges throughout the year and importantly, continue to invest ensuring our products were available on shelf and online and maintaining our high levels of customer service. This year, we installed 4 new lines and upgraded 2 existing lines, helping us to meet the growing consumer demand for our beverages whilst also delivering a range of sustainability benefits.

    我為我們全年成功應對供應鏈挑戰的方式感到非常自豪,重要的是,繼續投資確保我們的產品在貨架上和網上都有售,並保持我們高水平的客戶服務。今年,我們安裝了 4 條新生產線併升級了 2 條現有生產線,幫助我們滿足消費者對我們飲料不斷增長的需求,同時還提供一系列可持續發展優勢。

  • For example, our new state-of-the-art can line in Moorabbin, Victoria, is able to make up to 1,700 tons per minute in a variety of formats, including mini cans, while also using less water and less energy than our existing lines.

    例如,我們在維多利亞州 Moorabbin 新建的最先進的易拉罐生產線每分鐘可生產 1,700 噸各種形式的產品,包括迷你易拉罐,同時使用的水和能源也比我們現有的更少線。

  • In recognition of world-class customer service and execution, the Netherlands were the runner up in the annual global Coca-Cola Bottler competition, the Candler Cup. And we've seen some great activation, particularly around the World Cup and throughout the really important festive periods of Ramadan and Christmas.

    為表彰世界一流的客戶服務和執行力,荷蘭在一年一度的全球可口可樂裝瓶大賽 Candler Cup 中獲得亞軍。我們已經看到了一些很好的激活,特別是在世界杯前後以及整個齋月和聖誕節這些非常重要的節日期間。

  • On digital, we continue to accelerate our B2B platforms hitting record revenues of EUR 2 billion in 2022. That was up 50% versus 2021. And finally, through our ventures program, we recently partnered with 2 universities who will be undertaking academic research into direct air capture at our sites to help us reduce carbon emissions on our journey to net zero.

    在數字方面,我們繼續加速我們的 B2B 平台,到 2022 年收入將達到創紀錄的 20 億歐元。與 2021 年相比增長了 50%。最後,通過我們的風險投資計劃,我們最近與兩所大學合作,它們將直接開展學術研究在我們的站點進行空氣捕獲,以幫助我們在實現淨零排放的過程中減少碳排放。

  • We are extremely privileged to make, move and sell the best beverages in the world, and we continue to recruit new shoppers across our portfolio. In fact, in Europe, over 75% of households purchased from an NARTD portfolio in 2022, that's up 70 basis points versus last year. You will recall that we rolled out a new taste, new look and a new campaign for Coca-Cola Zero Sugar across our markets throughout 2021. This has been a great success, driving volume growth of 10% in 2022 or an impressive 23.5% when you compare it to 2019.

    我們非常榮幸能夠製造、運輸和銷售世界上最好的飲料,並且我們將繼續在我們的產品組合中招募新的購物者。事實上,在歐洲,超過 75% 的家庭在 2022 年購買了 NARTD 產品組合,比去年增加了 70 個基點。您會記得,我們在整個 2021 年為零糖可口可樂推出了新口味、新外觀和新活動。這是一個巨大的成功,推動 2022 年銷量增長 10%,或在 2022 年達到令人印象深刻的 23.5%您將其與 2019 年進行比較。

  • Coca-Cola creations were also a great success in 2022 with more excitement and new flavors to come this year. Within flavors, new Fanta flavor launches and the latest What the Fanta campaign continues to drive excitement for our consumers, particularly over Halloween.

    可口可樂的創作在 2022 年也取得了巨大成功,今年將推出更多令人興奮的新口味。在口味方面,新芬達口味的推出和最新的 What the Fanta 活動繼續讓我們的消費者興奮不已,尤其是在萬聖節期間。

  • We also launched Sprite Lemon plus, with added caffeine, in Australia with really promising early results. Monster continued to gain share through innovation with more flavors launched in the Juice and Ultra ranges during 2022.

    我們還在澳大利亞推出了添加咖啡因的 Sprite Lemon plus,早期效果非常好。 2022 年,Monster 繼續通過創新獲得市場份額,在 Juice 和 Ultra 系列中推出了更多口味。

  • In coffee, we launched a new Costa Frappé range. And in Australia, Suntory's Minus 196 double lemon, a brand that has proved really popular in Japan, continued to deliver solid growth.

    在咖啡方面,我們推出了全新的 Costa Frappé 系列。在澳大利亞,三得利的 Minus 196 double lemon 這一在日本非常受歡迎的品牌繼續實現穩健增長。

  • And all of this will continue to be done more sustainably. Our This is Forward commitments were extended to our API markets in 2022, resulting in a unified action plan for CCEP. We continue to make great progress against our commitments and are taking action where it matters most.

    所有這一切都將繼續以更可持續的方式進行。我們的 This is Forward 承諾在 2022 年擴展到我們的 API 市場,從而為 CCEP 制定了統一的行動計劃。我們繼續在兌現承諾方面取得重大進展,並在最重要的地方採取行動。

  • In Europe, we launched tethered closures on our PET bottles in 7 markets with more to follow in 2023. This new design, which includes a lighter weight neck, is estimated to save at least 1 gram of plastic per bottle, equating to approximately 15,000 tonnes of CO2 and over 9,000 tonnes of plastic a year by 2024.

    在歐洲,我們在 7 個市場推出了 PET 瓶的繫繩封口,並在 2023 年推出更多。這種新設計包括重量更輕的瓶頸,據估計每瓶可節省至少 1 克塑料,相當於約 15,000 噸到 2024 年每年減少 CO2 和 9,000 多噸塑料。

  • In Australia and Indonesia, we invested in new PET recycling facilities. These collaborations are a step forward towards creating a circular economy for PET and we'll continue to further accelerating our journey towards the ultimate goal of using 100% recycled or renewable plastic.

    在澳大利亞和印度尼西亞,我們投資了新的 PET 回收設施。這些合作是朝著創建 PET 循環經濟邁出的一步,我們將繼續進一步加快實現使用 100% 回收或可再生塑料的最終目標的進程。

  • Four more of our production facilities became carbon neutral in 2022, totaling 6 to date across different markets. Our progress continues to be recognized and we are proud to have retained our coveted CDP and MSCI ratings for the 7th consecutive year. CCEP was also recognized for sustainability leadership within the Coca-Cola system by winning the prestigious 2021 J. Paul Austin Award.

    到 2022 年,我們又有四個生產設施實現了碳中和,迄今為止在不同市場共有 6 個。我們的進步繼續得到認可,我們很自豪能夠連續 7 年保持令人垂涎的 CDP 和 MSCI 評級。 CCEP 還贏得了著名的 2021 年 J. Paul Austin 獎,因其在可口可樂系統中的可持續發展領導地位而受到認可。

  • And finally, I have the pleasure in sharing that CCEP recently became a member of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, an important partnership as we continue our efforts to transition to a circular economy.

    最後,我很高興與大家分享 CCEP 最近成為艾倫麥克阿瑟基金會的成員,這是我們繼續努力向循環經濟轉型的重要夥伴關係。

  • So all in all, a great year of progress. Turning now to our 2022 performance highlights. We're really pleased with our top line performance. The continued recovery of away-from-home and further growth in the home channel helped drive a 9.5% increase in comparable volumes. Our continued focus on revenue growth management and in particular, our efforts to actively manage headline pricing and optimize promotions across our broad pack offering, drove solid revenue per unit case growth of 6%. This is ahead of pre-pandemic levels but below realized cost inflation, reflected in our margins as we continue to prioritize relevance and affordability of our brands for the consumer.

    總而言之,這是進步很大的一年。現在轉向我們 2022 年的業績亮點。我們對我們的頂級表現非常滿意。離家業務的持續復甦和在家渠道的進一步增長幫助推動可比銷量增長 9.5%。我們繼續關注收入增長管理,特別是我們積極管理標題定價和優化我們廣泛包裝產品的促銷活動,推動每箱收入穩步增長 6%。這高於大流行前的水平,但低於已實現的成本通脹,這反映在我們的利潤率上,因為我們繼續優先考慮我們品牌對消費者的相關性和可負擔性。

  • We continue to win with our customers, and this momentum is evidenced by our NARTD value share gains and value creation. Our continued focus on driving efficiencies which Nik will cover in more detail shortly, helped drive solid operating profit growth of 12.5%. This all resulted in an impressive adjusted free cash flow generation of EUR 1.8 billion enabling us to pay a record dividend to our shareholders. And as mentioned earlier, we've made great progress on sustainability initiatives. And I'd now like to hand over to Nik to talk in more detail to the financials. Nik?

    我們繼續與客戶共贏,我們的 NARTD 價值份額收益和價值創造證明了這一勢頭。我們繼續專注於提高效率,Nik 將在稍後詳細介紹這一點,這有助於推動營業利潤實現 12.5% 的穩健增長。這一切都產生了令人印象深刻的 18 億歐元的調整後自由現金流,使我們能夠向股東支付創紀錄的股息。如前所述,我們在可持續發展計劃方面取得了很大進展。我現在想交給 Nik 來更詳細地討論財務問題。尼克?

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • Thank you, Damian, and thank you all for joining us today. Let me start by taking you through our financial summary. We delivered total revenue of EUR 17.3 billion, an increase of 15.5% and our COGS per unit case increased by 9%, both of which I'll come back to shortly.

    謝謝你,達米安,感謝大家今天加入我們。讓我首先向您介紹我們的財務摘要。我們交付了 173 億歐元的總收入,增長了 15.5%,我們的每箱 COGS 增長了 9%,我很快就會回來討論這兩個問題。

  • We delivered comparable operating profit of EUR 2.1 billion, up 12.5%, reflecting our solid top line growth, the benefit of our ongoing efficiency programs and our efforts on managing discretionary spend. In line with our guidance, our comparable effective tax rate increased to approximately 22% from 21% in 2021. This is largely due to differences in the mix of taxable profits across our different territories and the reassessment of our uncertain tax positions. This resulted in comparable diluted earnings per share of EUR 3.39, up 14%.

    我們實現了 21 億歐元的可比營業利潤,增長 12.5%,反映了我們穩健的收入增長、我們正在進行的效率計劃的好處以及我們在管理可自由支配支出方面的努力。根據我們的指引,我們的可比有效稅率從 2021 年的 21% 上升至約 22%。這主要是由於我們不同地區的應稅利潤組合存在差異以及對我們不確定的稅收狀況的重新評估。這導致可比稀釋每股收益為 3.39 歐元,增長 14%。

  • Free cash generation continues to be a core priority, and we delivered an impressive EUR 1.8 billion on an adjusted basis during 2022, and I'll cover that in more detail in a few moments. And finally, on shareholder returns, we paid a total 2022 dividend per share of EUR 1.68, up 20% versus 2021. In absolute terms, this equates to total dividends paid of approximately EUR 760 million, which as Damian mentioned, is the largest payment in our company's history.

    產生自由現金仍然是一個核心優先事項,我們在 2022 年期間交付了令人印象深刻的 18 億歐元(經調整),我將在稍後詳細介紹。最後,在股東回報方面,我們在 2022 年支付了每股 1.68 歐元的總股息,比 2021 年增長了 20%。按絕對值計算,這相當於支付的股息總額約為 7.6 億歐元,正如達米安所說,這是最大的一筆支付在我們公司的歷史上。

  • So now if I turn to our revenue highlights. The strong growth in our revenue was driven by both an increase in volume and importantly, our revenue per case. Unsurprisingly, the most significant improvement has been in our away-from-home volumes given last year's base was still impacted by lockdown restrictions. That said, we are pleased that our away-from-home volumes have broadly returned to 2019 levels, with traction in immediate consumption and the rebound in tourism.

    所以現在如果我轉向我們的收入亮點。我們收入的強勁增長是由銷量的增長和重要的每箱收入推動的。不出所料,考慮到去年的基數仍然受到封鎖限制的影響,最顯著的改善是我們的外出量。也就是說,我們很高興我們的出門在外的人數已大致恢復到 2019 年的水平,即時消費受到牽引,旅遊業出現反彈。

  • GB has been the standout here with away-from-Home volumes in double-digit growth versus 2019 and Iberia with strong recovery to slightly above 2019 levels as well. Strong trading in the home channel continued, benefiting from the increased at-home occasions as well as continued growth in online grocery with volumes up 4% versus 2021, or up 6.5% versus 2019. So volumes were slightly softer in the fourth quarter, up 1.5%, impacted by some customer disruption in Germany as well as tougher prior year comps.

    GB 在這裡表現突出,與 2019 年相比,離家出走量實現了兩位數增長,Iberia 也強勁復甦,略高於 2019 年的水平。家庭渠道的強勁交易繼續保持強勁,這得益於家庭活動的增加以及在線雜貨的持續增長,其銷量比 2021 年增長了 4%,比 2019 年增長了 6.5%。因此,第四季度的銷量略有疲軟,上升1.5%,受德國一些客戶中斷以及上一年更嚴格的補償的影響。

  • Excluding this customer disruption, volume growth in the home channel would have been positive in the fourth quarter versus the minus 1% detailed in the release. I am pleased that we were able to resolve this customer negotiation during the quarter. And as Damian referenced earlier, our priority is and will continue to be, to lead the category for sustainable value creation for all our customers.

    排除這一客戶中斷,第四季度家庭頻道的銷量增長將是積極的,而發布中詳述的是負 1%。我很高興我們能夠在本季度解決這個客戶談判。正如 Damian 之前提到的,我們的首要任務是並將繼續是,為我們所有的客戶引領可持續價值創造的類別。

  • Moving now to revenue per unit case, which grew by 6% for the full year, reflecting the strong growth in away-from-home, but also a testament to our revenue growth management initiatives with positive headline price, pack and brand mix. Unsurprisingly, pricing took a bigger role in 2022 compared to previous years, given the inflationary environment, and we successfully implemented both our first and second round headline pricing strategies across all markets, and I'll update on 2023 shortly.

    現在轉向每箱收入,全年增長 6%,反映了外出業務的強勁增長,但也證明了我們的收入增長管理計劃具有積極的標題價格、包裝和品牌組合。不出所料,鑑於通脹環境,與往年相比,定價在 2022 年發揮了更大的作用,我們成功地在所有市場實施了第一輪和第二輪標題定價策略,我將在 2023 年進行更新。

  • Revenue by segment is also referred to here. You can see more detailed commentary by geography in the release, but at a headline level, Great Britain and Iberia were the stand outs, but with both Europe and API ahead of 2019 levels on a revenue basis.

    此處還提到按部門劃分的收入。您可以在新聞稿中看到更詳細的地理評論,但在標題層面,英國和伊比利亞是最突出的,但歐洲和 API 在收入基礎上都超過了 2019 年的水平。

  • So moving now to COGS per unit case, which increased by 9%, slightly ahead of our 8.5% guidance. This difference was primarily driven by higher concentrate costs as a result of our incidence pricing model. This is, as you know, directly linked to our revenue per unit case growth, which was stronger than anticipated as a result of our successful RGM and second round pricing initiatives.

    因此,現在轉向每單位案例的 COGS,增加了 9%,略高於我們 8.5% 的指導。這種差異主要是由於我們的發病率定價模型導致的濃縮物成本增加所致。如您所知,這與我們的單位案例收入增長直接相關,由於我們成功的 RGM 和第二輪定價計劃,這比預期的要強。

  • As expected, we saw commodity inflation in the low 20s, in line with our guidance, reflecting higher aluminum and rPET pricing as well as the impact of higher gas and power pricing on our conversion costs, this past being more second half weighted.

    正如預期的那樣,我們看到大宗商品通脹處於 20 年代的低位,符合我們的指導,反映了更高的鋁和 rPET 定價以及更高的天然氣和電力定價對我們轉換成本的影響,過去下半年加權更多。

  • Now moving to OpEx and our efficiency programs. We have now delivered over 90% of our full year '21 to '23 program, which ultimately will amount to approximately EUR 375 million of benefits in total. We will deliver the final EUR 30 million during 2023. And in November, we announced a new efficiency program aiming to deliver EUR 350 million to EUR 400 million of incremental savings by full year 2028. As a reminder, these benefits will be weighted towards 2024 and beyond.

    現在轉向運營支出和我們的效率計劃。我們現在已經交付了 21 年到 23 年全年計劃的 90% 以上,最終總收益將達到約 3.75 億歐元。我們將在 2023 年交付最後的 3000 萬歐元。11 月,我們宣布了一項新的效率計劃,旨在到 2028 年全年實現 3.5 億至 4 億歐元的增量節省。提醒一下,這些收益將集中在 2024 年超越。

  • You can now see on this slide that as a percent of revenue, our OpEx continued to decline in 2022, reflecting our extremely disciplined focus on driving efficiencies throughout the cost base more than offsetting our underlying cost inflation as well as the increase in our volume-related costs and of course, TME which has naturally increased to support our top line growth. Importantly, our OpEx has declined not only compared to last year, but more importantly, around 200 basis points lower as a percentage of revenue compared to 2019.

    您現在可以在這張幻燈片上看到,作為收入的百分比,我們的運營支出在 2022 年繼續下降,這反映出我們極其嚴格地專注於在整個成本基礎上提高效率,而不是抵消我們的潛在成本通脹以及我們數量的增加-相關成本,當然還有 TME,它自然會增加以支持我們的收入增長。重要的是,我們的運營支出不僅與去年相比有所下降,更重要的是,與 2019 年相比,佔收入的百分比下降了約 200 個基點。

  • Going forward, we will continue to manage costs very tightly, but do anticipate further inflationary pressures in areas like labor and haulage as well as a certain element linked to volume growth this year.

    展望未來,我們將繼續非常嚴格地管理成本,但確實預計勞動力和運輸等領域以及今年與銷量增長相關的某些因素會出現進一步的通脹壓力。

  • So turning to free cash flow in more detail, a hugely important metric for us and for you as well. We generated EUR 1.8 billion of adjusted free cash flow in full year 2022 and this slide lays out the key components.

    因此,更詳細地轉向自由現金流,這對我們和您來說都是一個非常重要的指標。我們在 2022 年全年產生了 18 億歐元的調整後自由現金流,這張幻燈片列出了關鍵組成部分。

  • Recognizing the importance of targeted investment, we spent approximately EUR 600 million in CapEx, excluding leases, on supply chain, digital and other technologies as well as cold drink equipment. And as you know, working capital remains a core focus for us, and I'm really pleased that we delivered yet another year of significant benefits. This included a notable improvement in API as we rolled out our proven working capital initiatives in that region.

    認識到有針對性的投資的重要性,我們在供應鏈、數字和其他技術以及冷飲設備上投入了約 6 億歐元的資本支出(不包括租賃)。如您所知,營運資金仍然是我們的核心關注點,我很高興我們又一年取得了顯著收益。這包括 API 的顯著改進,因為我們在該地區推出了經過驗證的營運資本計劃。

  • For example, we have now aligned API's annual incentives to Europe so that incorporates free cash flow as a targeted measure, which has naturally encouraged more focus on delivering improvements. This has helped drive approximately EUR 120 million of working capital improvements in API since the acquisition, taking the cumulative amount, including Europe to approximately EUR 1.2 billion since 2017, a remarkable performance.

    例如,我們現在已將 API 的年度激勵與歐洲保持一致,以便將自由現金流作為一項有針對性的措施,這自然會鼓勵更多地關注交付改進。自收購以來,這幫助推動了 API 約 1.2 億歐元的營運資本改善,使包括歐洲在內的自 2017 年以來的累計金額達到約 12 億歐元,表現出色。

  • Finally, you will see our reported free cash flow also includes the benefit of a VAT tax refund in Spain amounting to approximately EUR 250 million. We have excluded this from the adjusted free cash flow to allow for better comparability, given the unusual nature of this item.

    最後,您會看到我們報告的自由現金流還包括在西班牙獲得的增值稅退稅收益,總額約為 2.5 億歐元。鑑於該項目的不尋常性質,我們已將其排除在調整後的自由現金流之外,以實現更好的可比性。

  • And now to our leverage and balance sheet. We ended 2022 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.5x demonstrating the pace of deleveraging since we closed the Amatil transaction in May 2021. Given our strong focus on driving cash and working capital improvements, we remain confident that we will reach the top end of our target leverage range of 2.5x to 3x by the end of 2023, while remaining fully committed to our strong investment-grade ratings.

    現在到我們的槓桿和資產負債表。截至 2022 年,我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 之比為 3.5 倍,這表明自我們於 2021 年 5 月完成 Amatil 交易以來去槓桿化的步伐正在加快。鑑於我們非常注重推動現金和營運資本的改善,我們仍然有信心我們將達到頂峰到 2023 年底,我們的目標槓桿率範圍將達到 2.5 倍至 3 倍,同時繼續完全致力於我們強大的投資級評級。

  • We have a strong and flexible balance sheet. And as a reminder, we won't need to refinance any of our existing debt for another 2-plus years, which is certainly helpful in the current volatile rates environment.

    我們擁有強大而靈活的資產負債表。提醒一下,我們不需要再為現有債務再融資 2 年多,這在當前波動的利率環境下無疑是有幫助的。

  • Moving now to API and an update on some of our portfolio initiatives. We have now exited beer and cider in Australia as planned, and the majority of the proceeds have been received from the sale of our CCEP-owned NARTD brands as well. And we have a more streamlined portfolio in Indonesia, focused on our core Sparkling and tea categories, which has allowed us to manage our supply chain more efficiently and deliver even better service to our customers across key calendar events like Ramadan and the Chinese New Year.

    現在轉到 API 並更新我們的一些投資組合計劃。我們現在已經按計劃退出了澳大利亞的啤酒和蘋果酒業務,大部分收益也來自於出售我們 CCEP 擁有的 NARTD 品牌。我們在印度尼西亞擁有更精簡的產品組合,專注於我們的核心起泡酒和茶類,這使我們能夠更有效地管理我們的供應鏈,並在齋月和中國新年等重要日曆活動期間為我們的客戶提供更好的服務。

  • Indonesia is a hugely exciting and attractive market for us, and so we're really pleased to announce the purchase of the Coca-Cola Company's 29.4% minority stake in our Indonesia business, increasing CCEP's ownership to 100%. This was for a total consideration of EUR 282 million, and please note that this price includes a significant amount of cash on the local balance sheet and represents KO's fair share of that cash. While this transaction will be EPS accretive, it will have a minimal impact at the group level for full year 2023. This now simplifies our ownership structure while demonstrating our commitment to the future of this exciting market.

    印度尼西亞對我們來說是一個非常令人興奮和有吸引力的市場,因此我們非常高興地宣布購買可口可樂公司在我們印度尼西亞業務中 29.4% 的少數股權,將 CCEP 的所有權增加到 100%。總對價為 2.82 億歐元,請注意,此價格包括當地資產負債表上的大量現金,代表 KO 在該現金中的公平份額。雖然這項交易將增加每股收益,但它對 2023 年全年集團層面的影響微乎其微。這現在簡化了我們的所有權結構,同時表明我們對這個令人興奮的市場的未來的承諾。

  • In fact, the more time Damian and I spend in Indonesia, the more excited we get about the opportunities ahead. This is a market with a fantastic growth opportunity in the NARTD category of over 10% a year. We've already seen promising results from some of our portfolio initiatives, evidenced by a 7% increase in revenue per unit case versus 2019 and so we're looking forward to the longer-term value creation opportunities that this market offers as we continue to reshape our route to market to be fit for purpose.

    事實上,達米安和我在印度尼西亞度過的時間越多,我們對未來的機會就越興奮。這是一個 NARTD 類別每年增長超過 10% 的絕佳增長機會的市場。我們已經從我們的一些投資組合計劃中看到了可喜的結果,與 2019 年相比,每箱收入增加了 7% 就是證明,因此我們期待著這個市場提供的長期價值創造機會,因為我們將繼續重塑我們的市場路線以適應目的。

  • So let me move on to guidance for full year 2023, which now reflects our view of the current market conditions. We expect revenue growth of 6% to 8% and COGS per unit case growth of approximately 8% both of which I'll talk to more on the following slide. With our continued focus on OpEx management, we will look to deliver operating profit growth of 6% to 7%. From a phasing perspective, we anticipate low single-digit operating profit growth in the first half, reflecting the COGS per unit case comp. Please note that these growth rates are all provided on an FX-neutral basis. And whilst too early to provide specific FX guidance, for modeling purposes, we do expect to see a translational FX headwind on for the year at current rates.

    因此,讓我繼續討論 2023 年全年的指導意見,它現在反映了我們對當前市場狀況的看法。我們預計收入增長 6% 至 8%,每件商品的 COGS 增長約 8%,我將在下一張幻燈片中詳細討論這兩者。隨著我們對運營支出管理的持續關注,我們希望實現 6% 至 7% 的營業利潤增長。從階段性的角度來看,我們預計上半年的營業利潤將出現較低的個位數增長,這反映了每箱商品的銷售成本。請注意,這些增長率都是在外匯中性基礎上提供的。雖然現在提供具體的外匯指導還為時過早,但出於建模目的,我們確實預計以當前匯率計算,今年會出現轉化性外匯逆風。

  • We will, of course, continue to update you as the year progresses. On interest, we do expect a small increase versus 2022, given the impact of higher rates on our floating note exposure at around 10% of our debt, as well as the loss of interest income associated with the net cash outflow from the Indonesia minority buyout. As I referred to last year, we do anticipate an upward trend on our effective tax rate driven by known tax rate increases. We, therefore, expect our ETR to increase to around 23% this year, with the U.K. tax rate increase from 19% to 25% effective from April this year, being the main driver.

    當然,隨著時間的推移,我們會繼續為您更新。在利息方面,我們確實預計與 2022 年相比會有小幅增長,因為較高的利率對我們的浮動票據敞口的影響約為我們債務的 10%,以及與印度尼西亞少數股權收購的淨現金流出相關的利息收入損失.正如我去年提到的那樣,我們確實預計在已知稅率增加的推動下我們的有效稅率將呈上升趨勢。因此,我們預計今年我們的 ETR 將增加到 23% 左右,英國稅率從今年 4 月起從 19% 增加到 25%,這是主要的驅動因素。

  • We will continue to update you on our expected ETR, including our assessment of any uncertain tax positions as the year progresses. We will continue to maintain our progressive dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%. And finally, we expect to deliver free cash flow of at least EUR 1.6 billion after our capital expenditures, which this year are expected to be in the range of 4% to 5% of revenue, excluding lease payments.

    我們將繼續向您更新我們的預期 ETR,包括隨著時間的推移我們對任何不確定稅收狀況的評估。我們將繼續保持大約 50% 的累進派息率。最後,我們預計在我們的資本支出之後將提供至少 16 億歐元的自由現金流,預計今年佔收入的 4% 至 5%,不包括租賃付款。

  • So let me now provide a bit more color on our revenue and COGS guidance. First to revenue. In terms of shape, revenue growth will be mainly price mix-led, driven by our anticipated headline price increases in 2023, combined with the annualized impact of last year's second round of pricing. We will also continue to focus on driving promotional efficiency, all of which will help us to offset some of the inflationary pressures that we are still seeing across the industry.

    因此,現在讓我為我們的收入和 COGS 指導提供更多色彩。首先是收入。就形態而言,收入增長將主要由價格組合主導,受我們預期的 2023 年整體價格上漲以及去年第二輪定價的年化影響所推動。我們還將繼續專注於提高促銷效率,所有這些都將幫助我們抵消我們在整個行業中仍然看到的一些通脹壓力。

  • Our main priority is to remain affordable and relevant to the consumer and as such, we continue to manage the business for the longer term with overall realized pricing tracking below inflation to date. We have great brands, which our consumers love and on the back of ongoing investment and innovation in brands, product and packaging, our category and brands continue to support a solid growth platform for all our customers.

    我們的首要任務是保持消費者負擔得起並與消費者相關,因此,我們繼續長期管理業務,總體實現的定價跟踪低於通貨膨脹率。我們擁有深受消費者喜愛的偉大品牌,並且在品牌、產品和包裝方面的持續投資和創新的支持下,我們的品類和品牌繼續為所有客戶提供穩固的增長平台。

  • The NARTD category remains resilient to date. Ultimately, we believe we can at least maintain or grow our share of the category, led by our great brands and best-in-class capabilities and execution, all underpinning our guidance of 6% to 8% revenue growth this year, and our customers will continue to share in our success, too.

    迄今為止,NARTD 類別仍然具有彈性。最終,我們相信,在我們偉大的品牌和一流的能力和執行力的帶領下,我們至少可以保持或增加我們在該類別中的份額,所有這些都支持我們今年 6% 至 8% 的收入增長指導,以及我們的客戶也將繼續分享我們的成功。

  • We've made structural changes to our business in recent years, which has positioned us more favorably from a volatile macroeconomic environment. As you know, approximately 40% of our volumes come from the more inelastic away-from-home channel, which is naturally somewhat more resilient in challenging times. And in the home channel, we've made bold strategic decisions in recent years, targeting value over volume and improving the underlying profitability of the channel. We've step changed our recommended price pack architecture to address different consumer needs and now confidently play across a spectrum of package formats and recommended price points.

    近年來,我們對業務進行了結構性調整,這使我們在動蕩的宏觀經濟環境中處於有利地位。如您所知,我們大約 40% 的交易量來自更缺乏彈性的離家渠道,這在充滿挑戰的時期自然更具彈性。在家庭頻道方面,我們近年來做出了大膽的戰略決策,以價值而非數量為目標,並提高了頻道的潛在盈利能力。我們已經逐步改變了我們推薦的價格包架構以滿足不同的消費者需求,現在可以自信地在一系列套餐格式和推薦價位上發揮作用。

  • We also continue to actively manage our headline pricing and optimize our promotions through smart RGM. So we feel good about our category and our leadership position within it. And despite what we see as a very dynamic external environment, recent trading has not indicated any significant changes in the underlying consumer demand.

    我們還繼續通過智能 RGM 積極管理我們的標題定價並優化我們的促銷活動。因此,我們對我們的類別和我們在其中的領導地位感到滿意。儘管我們認為外部環境非常動態,但近期交易並未表明潛在消費者需求發生任何重大變化。

  • Moving now to COGS. And clearly, these comments are based on what we know today. We expect COGS per unit case to increase by approximately 8% weighted more to the first half given the comps from last year as previously disclosed. This reflects higher concentrate costs tied to our revenue per unit rate growth, which as we mentioned earlier, will be the main driver of revenue growth this year.

    現在轉到 COGS。很明顯,這些評論是基於我們今天所知道的。考慮到之前披露的去年的比較,我們預計上半年每單位案例的 COGS 將增加約 8% 的權重。這反映出與我們的單位收入增長率相關的更高的精礦成本,正如我們之前提到的,這將是今年收入增長的主要驅動力。

  • You'll notice on this chart that concentrate now accounts for approximately 45% of our total COGS versus the 50% previously indicated, given the inflationary pressures we saw in 2022 through the commodities line. We now anticipate commodity inflation of approximately 10% versus mid-teens previously communicated as we've seen some respite in spot prices for certain raw materials such as aluminum. That said, our indirect exposure to the higher energy and transport costs continue to drive inflation through our conversion cost line, accounting for approximately half of our total commodities exposure.

    您會在這張圖表上註意到,考慮到我們在 2022 年通過商品線看到的通脹壓力,現在集中約占我們總 COGS 的 45%,而之前顯示為 50%。我們現在預計大宗商品通脹率約為 10%,而此前曾表示為 15% 左右,因為我們已經看到某些原材料(如鋁)的現貨價格出現一些喘息。也就是說,我們對更高能源和運輸成本的間接敞口繼續通過我們的轉換成本線推動通脹,約占我們商品總敞口的一半。

  • From a hedging perspective, I'm pleased to say that we're now approximately 85% hedged for 2023 and approximately 45% for 2024. Of course, we will continue to see other inflationary pressures within COGS such as labor, gas and power, mainly through the manufacturing line. Clearly, all this guidance is based on what we know today, given that there is still some volatility, particularly in our indirect non-hedged commodity exposure, we will continue to update you as the year progresses. And on that note, I'll pass back to Damian, who will share a bit more on what you can expect from our portfolio this year. Damian?

    從對沖的角度來看,我很高興地說,我們現在對 2023 年進行了約 85% 的對沖,對 2024 年進行了約 45% 的對沖。當然,我們將繼續看到 COGS 中的其他通脹壓力,例如勞動力、天然氣和電力,主要通過生產線。顯然,所有這些指導都是基於我們今天所知道的,鑑於仍然存在一些波動,特別是在我們的間接非對沖商品敞口方面,我們將隨著時間的推移繼續為您更新。關於這一點,我會轉達達米安,他將分享更多關於您今年對我們的投資組合的期望。達米安?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Nik. And indeed, we have plenty to look forward to with some great plans in place with all our brand partners. We will continue to invest in Coca-Cola Zero Sugar with some fantastic activation plan around the FIFA Women's World Cup in Australia and New Zealand.

    謝謝你,尼克。事實上,我們有很多值得期待的地方,我們所有的品牌合作夥伴都制定了一些偉大的計劃。我們將繼續投資可口可樂零糖,並圍繞澳大利亞和新西蘭的 FIFA 女足世界杯推出一些精彩的激活計劃。

  • In Flavors, we'll continue the excitement with What The Fanta, launch Kirks Orange in Australia, and refresh Sprite across Europe with a new irresistible taste. And our smooth campaign will drive consumers to try our great tasting Costa ready-to-drink range.

    在口味方面,我們將繼續 What The Fanta 帶來的興奮,在澳大利亞推出 Kirks Orange,並以令人難以抗拒的新口味在歐洲更新雪碧。我們順利的宣傳活動將促使消費者嘗試我們美味的 Costa 即飲系列。

  • Innovation will continue to be a core driver of our growth in energy. We will launch even more flavor extensions and the first ever energy coffee offering in Australia with Monster Java Loca Moca and Mean Bean. And of course, we're extremely excited to be launching our Jack & Coke assortment in GB, Spain and the Netherlands.

    創新將繼續成為我們能源增長的核心驅動力。我們將在澳大利亞推出更多口味擴展和首款能量咖啡產品,包括 Monster Java Loca Moca 和 Mean Bean。當然,我們非常高興能夠在英國、西班牙和荷蘭推出我們的 Jack & Coke 系列。

  • Hopefully, many of you are able to sample this at our recent Capital Markets event. If not, watch out, it will be here soon. Before we close, I wanted to take this opportunity to recap the new objectives we set as part of our capital markets event in November. We have a lot to do. But as we build on our current momentum, I'm confident that we have the right strategy to deliver on these ambitious targets.

    希望你們中的許多人能夠在我們最近的資本市場活動中對此進行採樣。如果沒有,請注意,它很快就會出現。在我們結束之前,我想藉此機會回顧一下我們在 11 月的資本市場活動中設定的新目標。我們有很多事要做。但隨著我們在當前勢頭的基礎上再接再厲,我相信我們有正確的戰略來實現這些雄心勃勃的目標。

  • So finally, to recap our key messages. 2022 was another successful year for CCEP, with strong revenue growth, share gains and further value creation for our customers. This, alongside our continued focus on driving efficiencies, drove solid bottom line growth and free cash flow, enabling us to pay a record dividend to our shareholders. Importantly, we continue to accelerate our sustainability investments and invest in our ongoing digital transformation. We are operating in a dynamic environment, but as the leader in what is a resilient and growing category, we are confident in our plans for 2023 and are firmly committed to our ambitious midterm objectives.

    最後,回顧一下我們的關鍵信息。 2022 年是 CCEP 又一個成功的一年,收入增長強勁,份額增加,並為我們的客戶進一步創造價值。這一點,連同我們對提高效率的持續關注,推動了堅實的底線增長和自由現金流,使我們能夠向股東支付創紀錄的股息。重要的是,我們繼續加快我們的可持續發展投資,並投資於我們正在進行的數字化轉型。我們在充滿活力的環境中運營,但作為具有彈性和不斷增長的類別的領導者,我們對 2023 年的計劃充滿信心,並堅定地致力於實現我們雄心勃勃的中期目標。

  • And of course, the foundation of success is great alignment and partnership we have with the Coca-Cola Company and our other brand partners.

    當然,成功的基礎是我們與可口可樂公司和我們其他品牌合作夥伴的高度一致和夥伴關係。

  • So to close, I'd like to once again thank all of my colleagues at CCEP, can rightly be very proud of what we all achieved in 2022. So thank you very much, Nik and I will now be happy to take your questions. Over to you all.

    最後,我想再次感謝我在 CCEP 的所有同事,我們可以為我們在 2022 年所取得的成就感到自豪。非常感謝,Nik 和我現在很樂意回答您的問題。交給你們了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edward Mundy。

  • Edward Brampton Mundy - Equity Analyst

    Edward Brampton Mundy - Equity Analyst

  • Damian, Nik, just got one question then. So you saw some pretty strong revenue per case in Q4. Could you talk about progress in pricing so far year-to-date and the cadence of pricing through 2023, given your joint value creation model with key customers.

    Damian、Nik,那時只有一個問題。因此,您在第四季度看到每箱收入相當可觀。考慮到您與主要客戶的聯合價值創造模式,您能否談談今年迄今為止的定價進展以及到 2023 年的定價節奏。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So we've been really pleased, I suppose, going back a number of years of CCEP at our focus around revenue growth management and our NSR per case realization. And I think even during COVID, was one of the highlights of being able to deliver strong NSR per case growth. On top of that, we've seen our customers also expand our margins as well, which I think is great for our business and for theirs. So clearly, we're in the middle of negotiating pricing for 2023. We've successfully landed it in a number of our markets. So we're very pleased with that. We've got the flow-through of our pricing from the second half of '22. It was unusual for us to go back to the market for a second price increase. And that's something that will remain an option as we look at 2023, again as well.

    是的。所以我們真的很高興,我想,回到 CCEP 的許多年,我們專注於收入增長管理和每個案例的 NSR 實現。而且我認為即使在 COVID 期間,這也是能夠實現每個案例增長的強勁 NSR 的亮點之一。最重要的是,我們已經看到我們的客戶也擴大了我們的利潤率,我認為這對我們的業務和他們的業務都有好處。很明顯,我們正在談判 2023 年的定價。我們已經成功地將其投放到我們的許多市場。所以我們對此非常滿意。我們已經了解了 22 年下半年的定價流程。我們回到市場進行第二次提價是不尋常的。展望 2023 年,這仍將是一個選項。

  • So as we see how the year turns out. Clearly, it's something that we look at again. Overall, I'm quite pleased with where we are today as we're in February, some of our markets, Iberia, Nordics and Australia are already done. France is clearly under negotiation at the moment. But we had a great '22 in France. And clearly, we looked at being the best value creator for our customers within FMCG in France with a good balance between price mix and volume. But we also know that those cost headwinds that Nik outlined at the beginning remain in '23, and so it's critical for us to kind of price against that going forward.

    因此,當我們看到這一年的結果時。顯然,這是我們再次審視的事情。總的來說,我對我們今天的處境感到非常滿意,因為我們在 2 月份,我們的一些市場、伊比利亞、北歐和澳大利亞已經完成。法國目前顯然正在談判中。但我們在法國度過了一個偉大的 22 年。很明顯,我們希望通過在價格組合和數量之間取得良好的平衡,成為法國快速消費品行業客戶的最佳價值創造者。但我們也知道,尼克在開始時概述的那些成本逆風仍然存在於 23 年,因此對我們來說,對未來的價格進行定價至關重要。

  • But again, I come back, I suppose what's good is we've seen our volume hold up. We've recruited more households. We've gained market share and our customers, in most cases, have expanded their margins. And I think that's a pretty good formula for long-term value creation for us and our customers. So more to come on pricing as we go through '23. And obviously, it's something we'll update as we get through the first quarter.

    但是,我又回來了,我想好的是我們已經看到我們的交易量保持不變。我們招募了更多的家庭。在大多數情況下,我們已經獲得了市場份額,我們的客戶也擴大了他們的利潤。我認為這是為我們和我們的客戶創造長期價值的一個很好的公式。隨著我們經歷 23 年,還有更多關於定價的內容。顯然,這是我們將在第一季度結束時更新的內容。

  • Edward Brampton Mundy - Equity Analyst

    Edward Brampton Mundy - Equity Analyst

  • As opposed -- as part of the same question as opposed to taking a second question. I think in the April remarks, you indicated that recent trading has not really indicated any significant changes in underlying consumer demand and volumes are holding up. Why do you think consumption for your products is holding up so well?

    相反——作為同一個問題的一部分,而不是提出第二個問題。我認為在 4 月份的評論中,您表示最近的交易並沒有真正表明潛在的消費者需求有任何重大變化,而且交易量正在保持。為什麼您認為您的產品消費量保持得如此之好?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • I can't say, they taste great. I think that's the first reason. And I think it's a robust category. And I think we've invested as have our partners, particularly the Coca-Cola Company and Monster sustainably over a number of years. And I think that solidifies that consumer preference. I think on top of that, I think Monster and the Coke Company continued to improve their marketing and product innovation. So if you look at our brands on shelf now in Europe, Australia, in Indonesia, I think they look fresh, they look young. They taste great. We've innovated a lot around sugar-free. I think that continues to open up the category to new users. We've broadened our portfolio. So if you look at where we're now playing, we're participating in more categories.

    我不能說,它們味道很好。我認為這是第一個原因。我認為這是一個強大的類別。而且我認為我們和我們的合作夥伴一樣進行了多年的可持續投資,尤其是可口可樂公司和 Monster。我認為這鞏固了消費者的偏好。我認為最重要的是,我認為 Monster 和可口可樂公司繼續改進他們的營銷和產品創新。所以如果你看看我們現在在歐洲、澳大利亞、印度尼西亞貨架上的品牌,我認為它們看起來很新鮮,看起來很年輕。它們味道很好。我們圍繞無糖進行了很多創新。我認為這會繼續向新用戶開放該類別。我們擴大了我們的產品組合。所以如果你看看我們現在在哪裡玩,我們會參加更多的類別。

  • So on top of that, I'd say, as a bottling business, we continue to drive better execution and customer service. So it's hard to pick one single element. I also think that we did a good job in '22, managing price realization with affordability. I remember on some of our calls last year, there was a question around what are we taking enough price. I think we were pretty consistent saying that we wanted to balance the midterm with the short-term cost headwinds, and I think we took the right level of pricing, which allowed us to continue to promote our brands and keep them accessible for our consumers.

    因此,最重要的是,我想說,作為一家裝瓶企業,我們將繼續推動更好的執行和客戶服務。所以很難選擇一個單一的元素。我還認為我們在 22 年做得很好,以可負擔性管理價格實現。我記得在我們去年的一些電話中,有一個問題是我們要付出多少代價。我認為我們一致表示我們希望在中期與短期成本逆風之間取得平衡,而且我認為我們採用了正確的定價水平,這使我們能夠繼續推廣我們的品牌並讓我們的消費者能夠接觸到它們。

  • So yes, I suppose what I feel good about is it's not one standout action. I think it's a myriad of good decisions over a number of years and a category that people continue to enjoy on a daily basis. And I think that's part of its resilience. And I think you also see that we're looking to connect much more on the digital platforms on social media. I think some of the new assets, particularly around brand Coke and Coke Zero whether it's on the gaming side or on music continue to kind of build out that preference. So a bit of a long answer, Ed, but there's a lot in there, and I think it's reassuring for our investors that, that's over multiple years. It's not just one thing we did in '22.

    所以是的,我想我感覺良好的是這不是一個突出的行動。我認為這是多年來做出的無數正確決定,也是人們每天繼續享受的一個類別。我認為這是其韌性的一部分。我想你也看到我們正在尋求在社交媒體的數字平台上建立更多聯繫。我認為一些新資產,特別是圍繞品牌可口可樂和可口可樂零,無論是在遊戲方面還是在音樂方面,都會繼續建立這種偏好。所以有點長的答案,埃德,但裡面有很多,我認為這讓我們的投資者放心,這已經持續了多年。這不僅僅是我們在 22 年所做的一件事。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Serotta from Morgan Stanley.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Eric Serotta。

  • Eric Adam Serotta - Equity Analyst

    Eric Adam Serotta - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. So just a quick housekeeping item and then a question. In terms of the customer dispute, and I apologize if you answered this already, but what's the state of that? Has that been resolved? And if so what was the timing on that?

    偉大的。謝謝。所以只是一個快速的內務管理項目,然後是一個問題。關於客戶糾紛,如果您已經回答了這個問題,我深表歉意,但那是什麼情況?已經解決了嗎?如果是這樣的話,時間是什麼時候?

  • And then the main question I had was looking at cash flow. Nik, you've spoken about the further opportunity in the past and you gave some pretty healthy midterm guidance. Can you talk a bit about where API is in working capital metrics versus the rest of the portfolio and the scope for both API and the rest of the portfolio to free up additional cash over the next few years?

    然後我遇到的主要問題是現金流量。 Nik,你在過去談到了進一步的機會,並且你給出了一些非常健康的中期指導。你能談談 API 在營運資本指標中與投資組合的其餘部分相比的位置,以及 API 和投資組合的其餘部分在未來幾年釋放額外現金的範圍嗎?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • So Eric, I might take the first question. So that customer situation was resolved in Q4. So we've come into 2023 in a good place. It was mainly in Germany but that's now resolved. So -- and it really impacted Q4 early December. But as you saw in our results, we still had a very, very strong Q4 on the back of that. So I'll hand over to Nik to talk about free cash flow.

    埃里克,我可能會回答第一個問題。因此,客戶情況在第四季度得到解決。所以我們在一個好地方進入了 2023 年。它主要在德國,但現在已經解決了。所以 - 它確實影響了 12 月初的第四季度。但正如您在我們的結果中看到的那樣,我們仍然有一個非常非常強勁的第四季度。所以我會交給 Nik 來談談自由現金流。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • Yes. And we did call out -- actually, when you exclude the impact of that disruption actually Q4 was in a nice level of growth. So as Damian said, it had quite a short-term impact of about 5 to 6 weeks. On free cash flow, listen, I think we've hopefully demonstrated our commitment on that key metric. And as I highlighted, we've delivered over EUR 1.2 billion in benefits from working capital and only since the acquisition of API, which we all seem to forget, it was only about 1.5 years ago, we were able to deliver about EUR 120 million of benefits by taking some of the actions that we took here in Europe.

    是的。我們確實呼籲 - 實際上,當你排除這種中斷的影響時,實際上第四季度處於良好的增長水平。因此,正如 Damian 所說,它具有大約 5 到 6 週的短期影響。關於自由現金流,聽著,我認為我們已經有望證明我們對這一關鍵指標的承諾。正如我強調的那樣,我們已經從營運資本中獲得了超過 12 億歐元的收益,而且僅在收購 API 之後,我們似乎都忘記了這一點,僅僅在大約 1.5 年前,我們能夠交付約 1.2 億歐元通過採取我們在歐洲採取的一些行動來獲得好處。

  • So from an angle of where are we, I think there is some more opportunity, both in Europe and API differences in terms of where we would get that. On Europe, I would say our focus is going to be over the next couple of years as we roll out our collaborative demand and supply planning, how do we look at the optimal inventory levels and how that might then translate into some unlocking of cash benefits.

    因此,從我們在哪裡的角度來看,我認為在歐洲和 API 方面存在更多機會,我們將在哪裡獲得這些機會。在歐洲,我想說我們的重點將放在未來幾年,因為我們將推出協作需求和供應計劃,我們如何看待最佳庫存水平,以及如何將其轉化為一些現金收益的釋放.

  • In API, I think it's a continuation of some of the work that we've done in Europe around all 3 elements of receivables, payables and inventory. And some of it is some of the housekeeping, some of it is around terms renegotiation and looking at what's fit for purpose relative to competition in those markets as well. And I think that's factored in, as we said, into our midterm guidance of at least EUR 1.7 billion.

    在 API 中,我認為這是我們在歐洲圍繞應收賬款、應付賬款和存貨這三個要素所做的一些工作的延續。其中一些是一些內務管理,一些是圍繞條款重新談判以及研究相對於這些市場的競爭而言什麼適合目的。正如我們所說,我認為這已納入我們至少 17 億歐元的中期指導中。

  • Clearly, you'll see we guided towards at least EUR 1.6 billion for 2023. And I think that's just a couple of drivers as we step back up to normalized levels of CapEx. Clearly, the type of benefit that we've seen in the earlier years on working capital will probably not be as strong, given what we've delivered. And then obviously, as we also look at the elements around how we deliver on new targets for efficiency programs, there will be some restructuring cash as well. But we feel really good about that number as well and we'll continue to update you during the course of the year, both for '23 and beyond.

    很明顯,你會看到我們指導 2023 年至少達到 16 億歐元。我認為這只是我們回到正常化資本支出水平的幾個驅動因素。顯然,考慮到我們已經交付的成果,我們早年在營運資金方面看到的那種收益可能不會那麼強勁。然後很明顯,當我們也在研究如何實現效率計劃新目標的要素時,也會有一些重組現金。但我們對這個數字也感覺非常好,我們將在這一年中繼續為您更新,包括 23 年及以後。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. I just want to ask a bit about API because volumes -- there's a lot of pricing, but volumes did come in a bit light -- I mean, down. So I'd just love some color on volumes there and kind of the outlook and how that changes from here?

    偉大的。我只想問一點關於 API 的問題,因為數量——有很多定價,但數量確實有點少——我的意思是,下降了。所以我只是喜歡那裡的捲上的一些顏色和前景以及它如何從這裡改變?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Sorry, Lauren. On API, was that the question?

    對不起,勞倫。在 API 上,這是個問題嗎?

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, the API volume.

    是的,API 卷。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So we're pretty happy with the full year volumes coming out of API. If you're looking at Q4, in particular, I think it was again a strong quarter for Australia and New Zealand and Indonesia, if we exclude some of the SKU rationalization work that we've been working on. So as you recall, as part of the strategic review post the acquisition, we've been working with the Coke Company to be much more choiceful around what categories we want to participate in, in Indonesia. We've really landed on 2, no surprise Sparkling being our number one priority and secondly, tea.

    是的。因此,我們對 API 全年的銷量感到非常滿意。如果你特別關注第四季度,如果我們排除我們一直在進行的一些 SKU 合理化工作,我認為這對澳大利亞、新西蘭和印度尼西亞來說又是一個強勁的季度。因此,正如您所記得的那樣,作為收購後戰略審查的一部分,我們一直在與可口可樂公司合作,以便在我們想要參與的印度尼西亞類別中做出更多選擇。我們真的排在第 2 位,毫無疑問,起泡酒是我們的第一要務,其次是茶。

  • And beyond that, we've exited a number of higher volume categories but very, very low or negative margin categories, predominantly water cups and some SKUs in other categories that really were not generating value. So that certainly was the right decision when we look at our business for the medium term, but obviously impacted volumes.

    除此之外,我們已經退出了一些銷量較高但利潤率非常低或為負的類別,主要是水杯和其他類別中的一些 SKU,它們確實沒有產生價值。因此,當我們從中期來看我們的業務時,這當然是正確的決定,但顯然影響了銷量。

  • But beyond that, I think there were some comps in Q4, if you go back to Europe from December '21, where we really started to see a bigger reopening. We had the (inaudible) issue we talked about. But I think if you just look at the full year, we're pretty happy with the volume momentum that we've seen coming into '23. And if you look at, I mean, market metrics for January in Europe, in particular, we see quite a healthy start to the year in '23 as well. So I'm pretty happy with our volume performance overall.

    但除此之外,我認為第四季度有一些補償,如果你從 21 年 12 月回到歐洲,我們真的開始看到更大的重新開放。我們遇到了我們談到的(聽不清)問題。但我認為,如果你只看全年,我們對 23 年的銷量勢頭感到非常滿意。如果你看一下,我的意思是,特別是歐洲 1 月份的市場指標,我們也看到了 23 年的健康開端。所以我對我們的整體銷量表現非常滿意。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. So just I guess a clarifying on API fourth quarter, ex the SKU rationalization, give a sense for what volumes would have looked like? And then in terms of looking forward, definitely saw the great comment in the press release about current trading conditions.

    好的。所以我想澄清一下 API 第四季度,例如 SKU 合理化,讓我們了解銷量會是什麼樣子?然後在展望方面,肯定會看到新聞稿中關於當前交易條件的精彩評論。

  • I guess there's a view that Europe escaped the worst because it was a warm weather, warm weather winter, so less pressure on European consumers broadly in terms of what their wallet needed to cover, but a concern that sort of the realities of inflation are still kind of yet to -- but that's still yet to really materialize in terms of consumer behavior. So how are you thinking about that? I know right now, things seem fine. And I'm just curious on your view of the European consumer as we move forward?

    我想有一種觀點認為歐洲逃過了最壞的情況,因為天氣溫暖,冬天天氣溫暖,所以歐洲消費者在錢包需要支付的方面普遍面臨的壓力較小,但人們擔心通貨膨脹的現實仍然存在有點尚未 - 但就消費者行為而言,這仍未真正實現。那你怎麼想的?我現在知道,一切似乎都很好。我很好奇你對歐洲消費者的看法,因為我們向前邁進了?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. So back to your question on API, I think if you look at it, the average of the year would have been pretty much where Q4 would have come in, but we're not going to give specifics around the value of the SKU rationalization. But -- and if you look at our Australia and New Zealand businesses maintained single-digit growth in those periods. So nothing beyond really what happened in our Indonesian SKU decision.

    是的。所以回到你關於 API 的問題,我想如果你看一下,今年的平均水平幾乎就是第四季度的水平,但我們不會具體說明 SKU 合理化的價值。但是——如果你看看我們在澳大利亞和新西蘭的業務在那些時期保持了個位數的增長。因此,除了我們的印度尼西亞 SKU 決策中真正發生的事情之外,沒有什麼比這更重要的了。

  • On European consumer, we continue to be mindful of the challenges they're facing. So I think you've outlined quite nicely what we're continuously looking at in terms of the impact of inflation under spending. We haven't seen that impact our category yet. We clearly have something we're mindful of. It's reflected in our pricing strategy for '23. It's reflected in our promo strategy. We continue to earn the right to price, I think, is our model that whether it's through innovation or marketing that we've got to justify to all our consumers if they need to pay more for our brand.

    在歐洲消費者方面,我們繼續關注他們面臨的挑戰。所以我認為你已經很好地概述了我們在通貨膨脹對支出的影響方面不斷關注的問題。我們還沒有看到這會影響我們的類別。我們顯然有一些我們注意的事情。這反映在我們 23 年的定價策略中。這反映在我們的促銷策略中。我認為,我們繼續贏得定價權是我們的模式,無論是通過創新還是營銷,如果他們需要為我們的品牌支付更多費用,我們必須向所有消費者證明其合理性。

  • So we're very mindful of it. We haven't seen it yet. We've clearly seen some retailers repositioned and focus on their own brands. That's clearly something that we've seen in the second half of '22. I believe that will continue into '23. And that's on the back of those challenges that you've outlined. But so far, we see a very solid consumer. We recruited a lot of new households last year.

    所以我們非常注意它。我們還沒有看到它。我們清楚地看到一些零售商重新定位並專注於自己的品牌。這顯然是我們在 22 年下半年看到的事情。我相信這將持續到 23 年。這是在您概述的那些挑戰的背後。但到目前為止,我們看到了非常穩固的消費者。我們去年招了很多新住戶。

  • But yes, I suppose we're still mindful that some of those challenges haven't gone away. And we're making sure that when we do take decisions around price and promo that we do so with that context. And then we'll see where we go as we come into the summer. It's been a good winter and relatively speaking. And obviously, spring it on its way in Europe. So let's see what that brings.

    但是,是的,我想我們仍然注意到其中一些挑戰並沒有消失。我們確保當我們圍繞價格和促銷做出決定時,我們會在這種情況下這樣做。然後我們將看到我們進入夏天時的去向。相對而言,這是一個不錯的冬天。顯然,它會在歐洲流行起來。那麼讓我們看看它帶來了什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla from Crédit Suisse.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Sanjeet Aujla。

  • Sanjeet Aujla - European Beverages Analyst

    Sanjeet Aujla - European Beverages Analyst

  • Nik, Damian. Just coming back to the 6% to 8% organic revenue guide, I think at the Capital Markets Day, you outlined an expectation for the category to grow high single digit in value, mainly driven by pricing. So just against that context, are you embedding in any volume declines in your 6% to 8% outlook for '23?

    尼克,達米安。回到 6% 到 8% 的有機收入指南,我想在資本市場日,你概述了對該類別的價值增長高個位數的預期,這主要是由定價驅動的。因此,就在這種情況下,您是否將 23 年 6% 至 8% 的前景納入任何銷量下降?

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • No, we're not. I mean, again, we've given you a range there for a specific reason. It's early in the year, but we actually do expect volume to grow. And I think, as I also highlighted, we want to at least maintain, if not grow our share as well. So our focus is on getting that right balance between the 2 elements that might be a little different in terms of shape versus what you saw in 2023.

    沒有,我們沒有。我的意思是,我們再次出於特定原因為您提供了一個範圍。今年年初,但我們確實預計銷量會增長。而且我認為,正如我還強調的那樣,我們希望至少保持(如果不是增加)我們的份額。因此,我們的重點是在這兩個元素之間取得適當的平衡,這兩個元素的形狀可能與您在 2023 年看到的略有不同。

  • And part of that goes back to some of those pricing comments that Damian made earlier in terms of what we did in 2022 that has that carry-on impact, what we've already landed and then obviously, what's to come during 2023 as well. So that's the way we've looked at it. So just to be clear, we are looking at volume growth as well on the back of obviously very strong 9% volume growth in 2022.

    其中一部分可以追溯到 Damian 早些時候就我們在 2022 年所做的事情所做的一些定價評論,這些評論具有持續影響,我們已經登陸,然後顯然,2023 年也會發生什麼。這就是我們看待它的方式。所以需要明確的是,在 2022 年明顯非常強勁的 9% 銷量增長的背景下,我們也在關註銷量增長。

  • Sanjeet Aujla - European Beverages Analyst

    Sanjeet Aujla - European Beverages Analyst

  • Got it. That's very clear. And just a quick follow-up on commodities. When you look at spot commodities today, are they below where you've hedged for '23? Or any color you can give us there would be really helpful.

    知道了。這很清楚。並且只是對商品的快速跟進。當您查看今天的現貨商品時,它們是否低於您為 23 年進行對沖的位置?或者您可以給我們的任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • So it will vary, obviously, depending on the commodity and those move up and down. So for instance, we were well covered on something like sugar, and I don't think that pricing has actually moved against us. It's been well positioned. Aluminum, we were obviously layering on. So if you look at an average price, it's probably there or thereabouts. We'll continue to see how the rest of the year plays out, where we still have an opportunity because we've kept about 20% open depending on the commodity type, right? Because we're about 85% hedged.

    因此,很明顯,它會有所不同,具體取決於商品以及上下波動的商品。因此,例如,我們很好地覆蓋了糖之類的東西,而且我認為定價實際上並沒有對我們不利。它的位置很好。鋁,我們顯然在分層。所以如果你看一個平均價格,它可能在那里或附近。我們將繼續觀察今年剩餘時間的表現,我們仍然有機會,因為我們根據商品類型保持了大約 20% 的開放,對吧?因為我們對沖了大約 85%。

  • I think we've done a good job locking in on gas and power on the direct spend side, which was obviously the biggest concern. Now the element that's residual is really around that conversion cost element and the supplier pass through. So when you really look at the COGS unit case, and I'm just giving you literally a broad perspective right now, we've guided to that circa 8% overall on COGS per case. You could be looking at a point up or down depending on how things trend and we'll continue to update you on those.

    我認為我們在直接支出方面鎖定了天然氣和電力方面做得很好,這顯然是最大的擔憂。現在剩餘的元素實際上是圍繞轉換成本元素和供應商傳遞的。因此,當您真正查看 COGS 單位案例時,我現在只是給您一個廣闊的視角,我們已經將每個案例的 COGS 總體指導為大約 8%。您可能會根據事情的趨勢查看一個向上或向下的點,我們將繼續為您更新這些信息。

  • But more importantly to your question, I think we're looking beyond '23 as well. And what do we do for '24 and '25 and that's where I think you'll start seeing some of that bigger benefit starting to come through.

    但對於你的問題更重要的是,我認為我們也在關注 23 年後的情況。我們為 24 和 25 做了什麼,我認為你會開始看到一些更大的好處開始出現。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mitch Collett。

  • Mitchell John Collett - Research Analyst

    Mitchell John Collett - Research Analyst

  • Damian. I'd also like to ask about commodities. Your hedge coverage for '23, 85% is quite a lot above where you were this time last year when I think you were 57% covered. And I think you also said, Nik, that the coverage for '24 is 45%. So I guess, first, can you just comment on why the coverage is higher. I appreciate it would be through a period of unprecedented volatility and although I know it's early to talk about '24, given that you're 45% covered, I wondered if you'd be able to make any comment at all on the likely headwind or tailwind for '24 from commodities?

    達米安。我還想問一下商品。你對 23 年 85% 的對沖覆蓋率比去年這個時候高出很多,當時我認為你覆蓋了 57%。我想你也說過,Nik,'24 的覆蓋率是 45%。所以我想,首先,您能否評論一下為什麼覆蓋率更高。我很高興這將經歷一段前所未有的動盪時期,儘管我知道現在談論 24 年還為時過早,但鑑於您已覆蓋 45%,我想知道您是否能夠對可能的不利因素發表任何評論還是 24 世紀大宗商品的順風?

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • Yes. So I mean, to your question around why we covered more, I think we saw leaving things open for as long as it was and the fact that it was rising and there continues to be uncertainty where we saw opportunities, and we've always talked about the fact that we've put in triggers in place and don't just try and take our number up from, let's say, 40% to 80% in one go.

    是的。所以我的意思是,對於你關於為什麼我們覆蓋更多的問題,我認為我們看到事情一直保持開放狀態,而且它正在上升,並且在我們看到機會的地方仍然存在不確定性,我們一直在談論關於我們已經設置好觸發器這一事實,而不是僅僅嘗試一次性將我們的數字從 40% 提高到 80%。

  • So I feel good about our approach. It's been measured. It's been looked at carefully across each of the commodity types. Looking at -- is there backwardation? Is there a contango effect? Should we lock in some now? Or should we wait? And I think it puts us in a much better position in terms of what we control to be able to understand then how we need to be thinking about, obviously, pricing and back to Damian's point, over a multiyear period again, right?

    所以我對我們的方法感覺很好。是測出來的對每種商品類型都進行了仔細研究。看看——是否存在現貨溢價?有contango效應嗎?我們現在應該鎖定一些嗎?還是我們應該等待?而且我認為這使我們在我們控制的方面處於更好的位置,以便能夠理解我們需要如何考慮,顯然,定價並再次回到 Damian 的觀點,在多年的時間裡,對吧?

  • So -- and that also helps us as we look at '24 with the coverage that we have, and we're just under 50% covered there, which gives us the opportunity to continue to look at the market. Based on what I see today and if those trends continue, clearly, you would expect that to be a tailwind in '24. Quantum, hard to quantify right now.

    所以——這也有助於我們在 24 年的時候看到我們的覆蓋率,我們的覆蓋率不到 50%,這讓我們有機會繼續關注市場。根據我今天所看到的,如果這些趨勢繼續下去,很明顯,你會預計這將成為 24 世紀的順風。量子,現在很難量化。

  • Mitchell John Collett - Research Analyst

    Mitchell John Collett - Research Analyst

  • Understood. If I can follow-up, just how specifically if you do move to a tailwind, how would you expect pricing and promo and I guess revenue growth management more generally to behave if you start to get a tailwind from inputs?

    明白了。如果我可以跟進,如果你確實轉向順風,你會如何期望定價和促銷,我猜如果你開始從投入中獲得順風,收入增長管理會更普遍地表現?

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • Well, I think it comes back to a point that Damian made earlier, right? We've had a very disciplined approach to how we think about revenue growth management initiative and we want to balance and get that spectrum from affordability to mainstream to premiumization, and that's back to, again, pack diversification through the various channels.

    好吧,我認為這又回到了 Damian 之前提出的觀點,對吧?我們對如何考慮收入增長管理計劃採取了非常有紀律的方法,我們希望平衡並獲得從負擔能力到主流再到高端化的範圍,然後再回到通過各種渠道實現多元化。

  • So I think we always have that promotional mechanic to play with as we look at what might be happening. But keep in mind, you're looking at one element which is commodities. There's other elements that drive inflation as well, right, that we need to be looking at across the levels of our P&L. So it's not like suddenly everything turns into a deflationary environment. We haven't seen that in terms of wage inflation, haulage, logistics, et cetera. So you've got to look at it holistically as opposed to just the commodity space.

    所以我認為在我們觀察可能發生的事情時,我們總是可以使用促銷機制。但請記住,您正在查看一種元素,即商品。還有其他推動通貨膨脹的因素,對,我們需要在損益表的各個層面進行研究。所以這並不是突然間一切都變成了通貨緊縮的環境。在工資上漲、運輸、物流等方面,我們還沒有看到這一點。所以你必須從整體上看它,而不僅僅是商品空間。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. And I think just to build on Nik's comment, I mean we're also looking at in most of our markets, circa 40% of our revenues coming from outside of retail. And I suppose that's quite a different dynamic to most CPG businesses. So we do enjoy diversification not just on the package side, which we've been really focused on over a number of years to make sure if you go into a supermarket or convenience store, most of our markets, you're going to see a lot of different pack sizes from minis all the way up to value packs that allows us to play a lot better with pricing on that affordability mindset, but also on premiumization, which we haven't walked away from.

    是的。而且我認為只是為了建立 Nik 的評論,我的意思是我們也在關注我們的大多數市場,大約 40% 的收入來自零售以外。我認為這與大多數 CPG 企業的動態完全不同。因此,我們不僅在包裝方面享受多元化,多年來我們一直專注於此,以確保如果您進入超市或便利店,我們的大多數市場,您會看到許多不同的包裝尺寸,從迷你包一直到超值包,這使我們能夠更好地根據可負擔性思維定價,但也可以在高端化方面發揮更大作用,而我們並沒有放棄這一點。

  • So despite some of those consumer challenges, there are a lot of consumers who are still happy to trade off. So we want to make sure we capture that. So you'll still see glass packaging, premium mini cans and smart promo pricing. For example, in Australia, our promo percentage discount has gone from 50% to 40%. We've actually gone below that in some periods and not seen a drop off, so that's encouraging. And then on the other side, we've got our away-from-home business, which was our challenge during COVID for all the reasons we know.

    因此,儘管存在一些消費者挑戰,但仍有許多消費者樂於權衡取捨。所以我們要確保我們捕捉到這一點。所以您仍然會看到玻璃包裝、優質迷你罐和智能促銷定價。例如,在澳大利亞,我們的促銷折扣百分比已從 50% 變為 40%。我們實際上在某些時期已經低於該水平並且沒有看到下降,所以這是令人鼓舞的。然後在另一方面,我們有我們的外出業務,這是我們在 COVID 期間面臨的挑戰,原因我們都知道。

  • But clearly, having 40% of your revenues coming from outside retail gives us a lot more levers and tools to deal with some of those commodity headwinds and other inflationary points, including labor, which we can't forget that clearly, we're seeing labor inflation also increase in Europe, and that's something that we're mindful of keeping our employees engaged and committed to our business.

    但很明顯,40% 的收入來自外部零售,這為我們提供了更多的槓桿和工具來應對其中一些商品逆風和其他通脹點,包括勞動力,我們不能忘記這一點,我們正在看到歐洲的勞動力通貨膨脹率也在上升,這是我們注意保持員工參與並致力於我們的業務的事情。

  • So we've got a lot of tools, and I think we've demonstrated and Nik said a disciplined approach to using them, but they're well in place now after a number of years of really focusing on it.

    所以我們有很多工具,我認為我們已經展示了 Nik 所說的一種使用它們的有紀律的方法,但經過多年的真正關注,它們現在已經到位了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Charlie Higgs from Redburn.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Charlie Higgs。

  • Charlie Higgs - Research Analyst

    Charlie Higgs - Research Analyst

  • Damian, Nik, I've got a question on Indonesia, please. And I mean, clearly quite a big impact on the Q4 volumes. But could you maybe just give an update on Indonesia. How is the reception been to the whole product and SKU trim, how you're feeling ahead of Ramadan this year where you normally see that starting uptick? How is the route to market development going? And then maybe if you can just maybe talk a bit more about the sale of the stake to the Coca-Cola Company. Does it confer any other benefits other than just simplifying ownership structure and the reduced minority charge?

    Damian、Nik,請問我有一個關於印度尼西亞的問題。我的意思是,顯然對第四季度的銷量產生了很大的影響。但是你能不能介紹一下印度尼西亞的最新情況。整個產品和 SKU 裝飾的反響如何,您對今年齋月的感覺如何,您通常會看到開始上漲?市場開拓之路如何?然後也許你可以多談談將股份出售給可口可樂公司的問題。除了簡化所有權結構和減少少數股權之外,它是否帶來任何其他好處?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Charlie, so I was in Indonesia in early January. It was my first market visit after the new year and I continue to feel great about that business. So I think the changes that you called out in Q4 on a relative scale are quite minor for the group. I think we've made the right choices around people. So we've got a team led by Jorge there that continues to look at that business for the medium to long term strategically.

    查理,一月初我在印度尼西亞。這是我在新年後的第一次市場訪問,我仍然對這項業務感覺良好。所以我認為你在第四季度提出的相對規模的變化對於這個團隊來說是相當小的。我認為我們圍繞人做出了正確的選擇。因此,我們在那裡有一個由 Jorge 領導的團隊,該團隊繼續從中長期戰略角度審視該業務。

  • So we're very happy with what we've done on that side. We've made some good decisions around portfolio management with the Coca-Cola Company. And as I mentioned earlier, being much more choiceful around where we believe we can create the right to win in Sparkling and in tea, we haven't done that yet. So that's work in progress. We have made some good decisions that really allow us to run our supply chain better.

    所以我們對我們在這方面所做的事情感到非常滿意。我們在可口可樂公司的投資組合管理方面做出了一些不錯的決定。正如我之前提到的,在我們認為我們可以創造在起泡酒和茶中獲勝的權利方面有更多選擇,我們還沒有做到這一點。所以這是正在進行的工作。我們做出了一些正確的決定,真正讓我們能夠更好地運行我們的供應鏈。

  • So ultimately, putting less through our supply chain is helping us improve customer service. It's helping us to be more productive on our lines, which over time help us manage capital better. So I'm very happy with that. And clearly, we're well set up for Ramadan. And this week, actually, we have a big MIT across Indonesia to continue to get everybody into the market for that period. So I think, again, we're set up for a great Ramadan.

    因此,最終,減少我們供應鏈中的投入有助於我們改善客戶服務。它幫助我們提高生產線的生產力,隨著時間的推移,這有助於我們更好地管理資本。所以我對此很滿意。顯然,我們已經為齋月做好了準備。實際上,本週我們在印度尼西亞有一個大型麻省理工學院,以繼續讓所有人在那個時期進入市場。所以我認為,我們再次為一個偉大的齋月做好了準備。

  • And then obviously, beyond that, we are looking at what choices we can make on our route to market, and that's probably something that we'll be able to come back to in the second half of this year. So we've been running some tests, we've been doing some modeling around what changes we could make. But as you can appreciate, those type of changes are significant. We believe there are moves that we can do to create better value for us and indeed for our customers. And that's something we'll probably finalize in the first half of this year and talk a bit more in the second half.

    然後顯然,除此之外,我們正在研究我們可以在進入市場的道路上做出哪些選擇,這可能是我們今年下半年能夠重新考慮的事情。所以我們一直在運行一些測試,我們一直在圍繞我們可以做出的改變做一些建模。但正如您所理解的那樣,這些類型的更改意義重大。我們相信,我們可以採取一些措施為我們乃至我們的客戶創造更好的價值。這是我們可能會在今年上半年完成的事情,並在下半年進行更多討論。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • And Charlie, on your question around ownership. I mean I think it was, I think, twofold. I mean, one, I think it comes back to Damian's point around, we feel really great about that business. And that minority stake was something we'd always looked at as an opportunity to take 100% at the right time.

    查理,關於你關於所有權的問題。我的意思是我認為這是雙重的。我的意思是,第一,我認為這又回到了達米安的觀點,我們對這項業務感覺非常好。我們一直將少數股權視為在正確的時間獲得 100% 股權的機會。

  • So for us, this was a great time in terms of some of the changes we've been able to make and what we're looking at going forward. But I think it also comes back to probably the Coca-Cola Company feeling good around our ability to run this operation well, and hence, their own view of being able to sell that balance stake to us. So I think it works for both sides.

    所以對我們來說,就我們已經能夠做出的一些改變以及我們正在展望的未來而言,這是一個美好的時光。但我認為這也可能會回到可口可樂公司對我們能夠很好地經營這項業務的能力感到滿意,因此,他們自己認為能夠將剩餘股份出售給我們。所以我認為這對雙方都有效。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Ottenstein from Evercore ISI.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

  • Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Great, 2 questions, please. One, I'd like to follow up on your comment that retailers are putting maybe a little bit more focus on their own brands. Can you please remind us what the -- whether -- first of all, whether that is a general comment or a comment in terms of beverages, roughly what the kind of private label -- your private label exposure is in key markets and a little bit more detail in terms of what you mean by focus.

    太好了,請問 2 個問題。第一,我想跟進你的評論,即零售商可能會更加關注他們自己的品牌。你能否提醒我們 - 首先,無論是一般性評論還是飲料方面的評論,大致是哪種自有品牌 - 你的自有品牌在主要市場的曝光度很小關於焦點的含義的更多細節。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Robert, it's a general comment across multiple categories. So I think it's not just in beverages. In fact, in beverages, the private label share is lower than it is in most of other categories. So I think over a number of years, in Europe and in Australia and New Zealand, we've demonstrated the value creation of brands in beverages. So typically, what you'll see across all of our markets is that the private -- our retailer brand share within beverages is lower than at least in other categories. So I think that's a good starting point for us.

    羅伯特,這是跨多個類別的一般性評論。所以我認為這不僅僅是在飲料中。事實上,在飲料中,自有品牌的份額低於大多數其他類別。所以我認為多年來,在歐洲、澳大利亞和新西蘭,我們已經證明了飲料品牌的價值創造。因此,通常情況下,你會在我們所有的市場中看到的是私人——我們的零售商品牌在飲料中的份額至少低於其他類別。所以我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的起點。

  • It is obviously part of our proposition to offer value, and therefore, they do it across all categories. So beverages is one of many, many categories that they've -- that they have. It's always been around. So this is nothing new. So I think we should also understand that retailer brands in Europe, in particular, have been part of the landscape for many, many years. And typically, in terms of value share, it differs by market, but it's obviously significantly lower than where we sit and so far, we've gained share. So I think this is not a new phenomenon. So that really kicked off.

    提供價值顯然是我們主張的一部分,因此,他們在所有類別中都這樣做。所以飲料是他們擁有的許多類別之一。它一直存在。所以這不是什麼新鮮事。所以我認為我們也應該明白,尤其是歐洲的零售商品牌,多年來一直是這一領域的一部分。通常,就價值份額而言,它因市場而異,但它顯然明顯低於我們所處的位置,到目前為止,我們已經獲得了份額。所以我認為這不是一個新現象。所以那真的開始了。

  • Over a number of years, we saw kicking up a bit in the second half of last year as some of those inflationary pressures came into our markets and retailers responded. But despite that, we gained share in the second half of the year. So I think our value creation story, the smart RGM, good customer service and the continued investments, the margin story on our brands is very, very strong for our retailers.

    多年來,隨著一些通脹壓力進入我們的市場並且零售商做出反應,我們看到去年下半年有所回升。但儘管如此,我們在下半年獲得了份額。所以我認為我們的價值創造故事、聰明的 RGM、良好的客戶服務和持續的投資,我們品牌的利潤故事對我們的零售商來說非常非常強大。

  • So I think ultimately, that's what drives growth, and that's what we're focused on. Fully recognizing that they will continue to have to manage some of their value propositions for their business, and that's something that we've seen. But again, it's nothing really new but it does kind of peak and trough, particularly when you get some of the more macro headwinds for consumers. But so far, we feel pretty good about where we are. But obviously, it's something we keep a close eye on.

    所以我認為最終,這就是推動增長的因素,也是我們關注的重點。充分認識到他們將繼續必須為他們的業務管理他們的一些價值主張,這是我們已經看到的。但同樣,這並不是什麼新鮮事,但它確實有點高峰和低谷,特別是當你為消費者帶來一些更多的宏觀逆風時。但到目前為止,我們對自己的處境感覺還不錯。但顯然,這是我們密切關注的事情。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • And Robert, just to add one point to Damian's comments, is around when you do look at NARTD, there are certain subcategories that have much more private label penetration. So if you take a look at juices or waters, they already have a high share. But keep in mind, that's not typically where we're playing.

    羅伯特,只是為了對達米安的評論補充一點,當你看 NARTD 時,就會發現某些子類別的自有品牌滲透率更高。所以如果你看一下果汁或水,它們已經佔有很高的份額。但請記住,那通常不是我們玩的地方。

  • And in fact, we've exited some of those. So the categories, from a value perspective, that we're a lot more focused in on, we're not necessarily seeing the same level of pressures. But as Damian said, we're constantly monitoring that to ensure that we remain relevant to a broad consumer base.

    事實上,我們已經退出了其中的一些。因此,從價值的角度來看,我們更加關注的類別,我們不一定會看到相同程度的壓力。但正如達米安所說,我們一直在監控這一點,以確保我們與廣泛的消費者群體保持相關性。

  • Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Sure. Can you -- I mean, -- you guys have been doing this for a long time, just in terms of historical perspective, what happened in prior downturns and let's just say for Sparkling, I mean did private label go for maybe 5% of the market to 10%? Can you put just kind of some rough ballparking of sort of worst-case scenarios or what you've seen and what -- which markets are most exposed?

    當然。你能不能——我的意思是,——你們已經做了很長時間了,就歷史的角度來看,在之前的經濟低迷時期發生了什麼,我們就說 Sparkling,我的意思是自有品牌可能佔了 5%市場到10%?你能不能粗略地概括一下最壞的情況,或者你所看到的以及什麼——哪些市場最容易受到影響?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I mean it's not that extreme historically. So I think what you'll see is typically -- and again, as you said, it still differ by market. So you may see private label on a volume side picking up a point to share, which overall on the value side would be a lot lower, given their pricing.

    是的。我的意思是歷史上並沒有那麼極端。所以我認為你會看到的通常是 - 正如你所說的那樣,它仍然因市場而異。因此,您可能會看到自有品牌在數量方面獲得了一個共享點,考慮到它們的定價,在價值方面總體而言會低很多。

  • Clearly, they also faced some of the same commodity headwinds that we faced. So we're also seeing private label pricing move as well because of all of the commodity impacts that Nik outlined, they face the exact thing. So we're also seeing that happening. So you're looking in that range, and I suppose it's pretty consistent across our markets. But if I look back and we have looked back and we've seen what's happened in previous years where consumer spending has been challenged, you're looking at a small share move, Robert, nothing too dramatic.

    顯然,他們也面臨著我們所面臨的一些相同的商品逆風。因此,由於 Nik 概述的所有商品影響,我們也看到自有品牌定價也發生了變化,他們面臨著確切的事情。所以我們也看到了這種情況。所以你正在尋找那個範圍,我想它在我們的市場中非常一致。但如果我回顧過去,我們已經回顧過去,我們已經看到了前幾年消費者支出受到挑戰的情況,羅伯特,你看到的是一個小的份額變動,沒有什麼太大的變化。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • And again, just on that pricing, keep in mind that as a relative level that COGS impact is significantly higher for them, so their absolute pricing has had to move a lot more. So just keep that in mind as well.

    再一次,就定價而言,請記住,作為相對水平,COGS 對他們的影響要高得多,因此他們的絕對定價必須移動得更多。所以請記住這一點。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • And obviously, it doesn't impact that 40% plus revenues that I talked about earlier in outside of retail. So again, compared to other CPGs we've got 80%, 90% of the revenue locked in retail, we're well balanced. So I think that also gives us confidence to deal with that going forward.

    很明顯,它不會影響我之前在零售業之外談到的 40% 以上的收入。因此,與其他 CPG 相比,我們有 80%、90% 的收入鎖定在零售中,我們很平衡。所以我認為這也讓我們有信心處理未來的問題。

  • Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • That's great perspective. And then just my last question. Could you please give us an update on your digital initiatives and to what extent you're implementing, kind of a micro targeting of coolers and displays and other sort of ways that that's improved your execution?

    這是偉大的觀點。然後是我的最後一個問題。您能否向我們介紹一下您的數字計劃的最新情況以及您正在實施的程度,冷卻器和顯示器的微觀定位以及其他改善執行的方式?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Yes. I think we outlined some of those initiatives on our Capital Markets event in November. We continue to invest behind digital analytics. It's driving a lot of a good decision-making. I suppose a couple of areas that I get excited about with the team in particular, is promo efficiency. So we're being much more targeted around promos and what works, what drives value for us, for our customers, what drives household penetration. We've added a lot of households last year.

    是的。我認為我們在 11 月的資本市場活動中概述了其中一些舉措。我們繼續投資於數字分析。它推動了很多好的決策。我想我對團隊感到特別興奮的幾個方面是促銷效率。因此,我們更加專注於促銷以及有效的方法,為我們和我們的客戶帶來價值的因素,推動家庭滲透的因素。去年我們增加了很多家庭。

  • So I think that's working. We've taken on board some of the learnings from our Australian business back into Europe around looking at some post code analytics to understand really where we're doing really well and potentially where we see share opportunities and then tailor making our proposition to those particular assets, whether that's display, as you called out, coolers, merchandising frequency, promo frequency are indeed advertising in and around the store.

    所以我認為這是有效的。我們已經將我們澳大利亞業務的一些經驗帶回歐洲,通過查看一些郵政編碼分析來真正了解我們在哪些方面做得非常好,以及我們可能在哪些方面看到了共享機會,然後針對這些特定問題量身定制我們的建議資產,無論是展示,正如你所說的,冷卻器,商品銷售頻率,促銷頻率確實是在商店內外做廣告。

  • So there's a lot of different initiatives. We're also continuing to drive over EUR 2 billion of revenue through our online B2B portal, which I think is one of the biggest globally now. And we're adding more services to that for our retailers. So they can continue to use that for a number of initiatives beyond ordering. So a lot happening across the board, Robert, and it's something that we'll continue to invest in. And honestly, we've made great progress. But in many ways, we're still at the beginning. I think every conversation I have with the team, there's a new idea coming up. There's a new initiative. So it's a very exciting part of our business. And I think we're leading, but I think honestly, we still have a long way that we could go.

    所以有很多不同的舉措。我們還通過我們的在線 B2B 門戶繼續推動超過 20 億歐元的收入,我認為這是目前全球最大的門戶之一。我們正在為我們的零售商增加更多服務。因此,他們可以繼續將其用於訂購以外的許多舉措。羅伯特,全面發生了很多事情,這是我們將繼續投資的事情。老實說,我們取得了很大進展。但在很多方面,我們仍處於起步階段。我認為我與團隊的每一次談話都會產生一個新想法。有一個新的倡議。所以這是我們業務中非常令人興奮的部分。我認為我們處於領先地位,但老實說,我們還有很長的路要走。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Cooper from Consumer Edge.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Consumer Edge 的 Brett Cooper。

  • Brett Young Cooper - Senior Analyst & Managing Partner

    Brett Young Cooper - Senior Analyst & Managing Partner

  • I wanted to ask a question more holistically on what's pressured the business as it relates to margins. So I think 2022 gross margins are down roughly 300 basis points from pro forma 2019 levels. Seems like we have ongoing pressure into 2023. And I appreciate the rationale for not fully covering inflation. But on a EUR 17 billion revenue business, it's growing. Recovery of that margin is significant to profit and cash flow. So I was hoping you could scope the drivers of that decline and then your thoughts on the ability to recover those drivers over time? And then just finally, a clarification as to whether recovery of those margins are embedded in your long-term targets?

    我想更全面地問一個問題,即與利潤相關的業務給企業帶來的壓力是什麼。因此,我認為 2022 年的毛利率比 2019 年的備考水平下降了大約 300 個基點。似乎我們在 2023 年面臨持續的壓力。我很欣賞沒有完全涵蓋通貨膨脹的理由。但在 170 億歐元的收入業務中,它正在增長。該利潤率的恢復對利潤和現金流量具有重要意義。所以我希望你能確定這種下降的驅動因素,然後你對隨著時間的推移恢復這些驅動因素的能力有什麼想法?最後,澄清這些利潤率的恢復是否包含在您的長期目標中?

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • Yes. Great question, Brett. And I think as we've highlighted a couple of times, we want to do this in the right way looking at both what we need to do in the short term, but also what is the midterm objective. So the first piece of data that I would give you that there's nothing that's structurally different in our market or environment that would not allow us to get to those margin percentages, right? For us, right now, it's been about very much growing absolute cash margins. And I think we've demonstrated, hopefully, very strong results there.

    是的。好問題,布雷特。而且我認為,正如我們已經多次強調的那樣,我們希望以正確的方式做到這一點,既要考慮我們在短期內需要做的事情,又要考慮中期目標是什麼。所以我要給你的第一個數據是,在我們的市場或環境中沒有什麼結構上的不同不會讓我們達到這些保證金百分比,對吧?對我們來說,現在,絕對現金利潤率一直在大幅增長。而且我認為我們已經展示了,有希望地,非常強大的結果。

  • So we definitely plan to get back. We will do that in a balanced way. Is that built into our long-term algorithm? Well, part of it is built in when you just think about what we want to continue driving on an efficiency basis. And part of it is back to the point that Damian made earlier that we have been disciplined since we formed Coca-Cola Europe Partners and now Europacific around smart RGM, looking at opportunities of optimizing promo, looking at pack diversification, the away-from-home channels coming back nicely. We're now back at about flat levels from a volume angle in that channel, a couple of markets still have an opportunity to get back to '19 levels.

    所以我們絕對計劃回來。我們將以平衡的方式做到這一點。這是否內置於我們的長期算法中?好吧,當您考慮我們希望在效率基礎上繼續推動什麼時,它的一部分是內置的。部分原因是達米安早些時候提出的觀點,即自從我們成立可口可樂歐洲合作夥伴和現在圍繞智能 RGM 建立歐洲太平洋以來,我們一直受到紀律處分,尋找優化促銷的機會,考慮包裝多樣化,遠離 -家庭頻道很好地回來了。從該渠道的成交量角度來看,我們現在回到了大致持平的水平,一些市場仍有機會回到 19 年的水平。

  • So we are focusing on that, but I think we've got to look at it in stages. And right now, we want to continue ensuring that we are relevant, play across the spectrum in terms of the affordability and the premiumization and continue to grow more at-home occasions and at the same time, look at what we can do to get more growth in the away-from-home channel and improved profitability in those channels as well.

    所以我們專注於此,但我認為我們必須分階段進行研究。現在,我們希望繼續確保我們的相關性,在可負擔性和高端化方面發揮作用,並繼續增加更多在家的場合,同時,看看我們能做些什麼來獲得更多離家渠道的增長以及這些渠道的盈利能力也有所提高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take our next question. Our last question comes from the line of Matthew Ford from Exane BNP Paribas.

    我們將回答下一個問題。我們的最後一個問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Matthew Ford。

  • Matthew Ford - Research Analyst

    Matthew Ford - Research Analyst

  • Nik, my question is just on the away-from-home volume performance in Q4. So on the release, I think you mentioned that away-from-home volumes in Q4 were 4.5% below 2019 levels. And this seems like a little bit of a slowdown from, I think, 2% above in Q3 and something similar in Q2. So I was just wondering what were the drivers of that kind of sequential slowdown? And are you seeing those trends kind of continue into the first 1.5 months of Q1?

    尼克,我的問題只是關於第四季度的外出交易量表現。所以在發佈時,我想你提到第四季度的外出量比 2019 年水平低 4.5%。我認為,這似乎比第三季度高出 2% 和第二季度類似的情況有所放緩。所以我只是想知道這種連續放緩的驅動因素是什麼?您是否看到這些趨勢會持續到第一季度的前 1.5 個月?

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Well, to kind of give a short answer. No, we don't see them -- that, as you call, we don't see a slowdown actually. I mean, I think on some of the comps, obviously, in the quarter, things will move around. But what we've seen consistently over the full year is a strong reopening of away-from-home across all of our markets. And I think from an outlet level, we're above 90% outlets that have reopened post-COVID. So that's good.

    好吧,給一個簡短的答案。不,我們沒有看到它們——正如你所說,我們實際上沒有看到放緩。我的意思是,我認為在某些方面,很明顯,在本季度,事情會發生變化。但是我們在全年中始終看到的是我們所有市場的離家出走的強勁重新開放。我認為從門店層面來看,我們超過 90% 的門店在 COVID 後重新開業。所以這很好。

  • We're now seeing traffic continue to improve, tourism has come back. So people are flying again. So a lot of the drivers, particularly in markets like Spain, with tourism, et cetera, have come back very strong. So we see that as a positive going into '23. So we see that growing ahead of where we were. And so nothing that we've seen away-from-home to cause any concern at the moment.

    我們現在看到交通繼續改善,旅遊業已經恢復。於是人們又飛起來了。因此,許多驅動因素,特別是在西班牙等市場,以及旅遊業等,都非常強勁地回歸。所以我們認為這是進入 23 年的積極因素。因此,我們看到它的增長領先於我們所處的位置。因此,目前我們在外地看到的任何事情都不會引起任何擔憂。

  • Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

    Manik H. Jhangiani - CFO

  • And just to disaggregating that a little bit, I mean, essentially, you're looking at flat in Q4. But if you actually look at some of the markets like Iberia, GB, France, those have continued to see good growth, right? So I think we'll continue to monitor and you remember, again, you're looking at numbers that are quite different in terms of a base when you're looking at Q4 because it's a smaller away-from-home quarter to begin with, right, relative to Q2 and Q3. So -- and to Damian's point, we -- nothing that we're seeing in Q1 to date that would indicate a continuation of that trend.

    只是稍微分解一下,我的意思是,從本質上講,你在第四季度看到的是持平。但如果你真的看看伊比利亞、英國、法國等一些市場,它們會繼續保持良好的增長,對吧?因此,我認為我們會繼續監控,你再次記住,當你查看第四季度時,你正在查看基數方面截然不同的數字,因為它是一個較小的離家季度,對,相對於 Q2 和 Q3。所以——就達米安的觀點而言,我們——到目前為止,我們在第一季度沒有看到任何跡象表明這種趨勢會持續下去。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference back to Damian Gammell for his closing remarks. Damian, please go ahead.

    謝謝。我現在想將會議交還給 Damian Gammell 作閉幕詞。達米安,請繼續。

  • Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

    Damian Paul Gammell - CEO & Executive Director

  • Thank you, operator. And again, thank you, everybody, for joining us today. So hopefully, you -- we've shared with you our full year 2022, a great set of results. And again, I want to take this opportunity to thank everybody who works with us at CCEP and what they do every day to make this business great and continue to grow. As Nik highlighted, we are in a dynamic environment, and we've talked to that quite a bit today in the Q&A, but we do operate in a very resilient and very much a growing category. I think over a number of years, we've made the right decisions of CCEP to build a great platform, providing creation for our shareholders and our customers. This has been clearly bolstered by the acquisition of API.

    謝謝你,運營商。再次感謝大家今天加入我們。所以希望你——我們已經與你分享了我們 2022 年全年的一系列偉大成果。再次,我想藉此機會感謝在 CCEP 與我們一起工作的每一個人,以及他們每天所做的一切,使這項業務變得偉大並繼續發展。正如 Nik 強調的那樣,我們處於一個動態的環境中,我們今天在問答中已經談了很多,但我們確實在一個非常有彈性且不斷增長的類別中運作。我認為多年來,我們做出了 CCEP 的正確決定,建立了一個偉大的平台,為我們的股東和客戶提供了創造。 API 的收購明顯加強了這一點。

  • And as Nik called out, was our first full year with API. And indeed, we're traveling out there, just to meet and have a Board meeting there in March. So we're looking forward to getting back into that market again. So we are confident about the future and delivering on those midterm objectives we laid out with you in November. Finally, we remain very committed to delivering great service and value creation for our customers, and that remains our priority in 2023. So again, thank you. Look forward to speaking to you again at Q1. Have a great rest of the day, everybody. Thank you very much.

    正如 Nik 所說,這是我們使用 API 的第一年。事實上,我們正在那裡出差,只是為了在 3 月份在那裡開會並召開董事會會議。所以我們期待再次回到那個市場。因此,我們對未來和實現我們在 11 月份與您制定的中期目標充滿信心。最後,我們仍然非常致力於為我們的客戶提供優質的服務和價值創造,這仍然是我們 2023 年的首要任務。再次感謝你們。期待在 Q1 再次與您交談。祝大家今天休息愉快。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • That concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

    我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連接。