Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to today's Coca-Cola Europacific Partners Q4 and Full Year 2021 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I must advice you that this conference call is being recorded today. I'd now like to hand the conference over to Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Strategy, Sarah Willett. Please go ahead, Sarah.

您好，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加今天的可口可樂歐洲太平洋合作夥伴第四季度和 2021 年全年業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）我必須告訴您，今天正在錄製這次電話會議。我現在想將會議交給投資者關係和企業戰略副總裁 Sarah Willett。請繼續，莎拉。

Thank you all for joining us today. I'm here with Damian Gammell, our CEO; and Nik Jhangiani, our CFO. Before we begin with our opening remarks on our preliminary results for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. A reminder of our quarterly statements. This call will contain forward-looking management comments and other statements reflecting our outlook. These comments should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in today's release as well as the detailed cautionary statements found in reports filed with the U.K., U.S., Dutch and financial authorities. A copy of this information is available on our website at www.cocacolaep.com.

感謝大家今天加入我們。我和我們的首席執行官 Damian Gammell 在一起；和我們的首席財務官 Nik Jhangiani。在我們開始就我們 2021 年第四季度和全年的初步結果發表開場白之前。請注意我們的季度報表。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性的管理層評論和其他反映我們前景的聲明。這些評論應與今天發布的警告語言以及提交給英國、美國、荷蘭和金融當局的報告中的詳細警告聲明一起考慮。此信息的副本可在我們的網站 www.cocacolaep.com 上找到。

Prepared remarks will be made by Damian and Nik and accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions.

準備好的評論將由 Damian 和 Nik 發表，並附有幻燈片。然後，我們會將電話轉至您的問題。

Unless otherwise stated, metrics presented today will be on a comparable and FX-neutral basis throughout. They will also be presented on a pro forma basis, thus reflecting the results of CCP, and our Australian Pacific and Indonesian business unit, API, as if the Coca-Cola Amatil transaction had occurred at the beginning of this year rather than in May when the acquisition completed. Following the call, a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Damian.

除非另有說明，否則今天提出的指標將始終保持可比和外匯中性的基礎。它們也將在備考基礎上呈現，從而反映 CCP 以及我們的澳大利亞太平洋和印度尼西亞業務部門 API 的結果，就好像可口可樂 Amatil 交易發生在今年年初而不是 5 月收購完成。通話結束後，我們將盡快在我們的網站上提供完整的成績單。我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Damian。

Thank you, Sarah, and many thanks to everyone joining us today. So first, I'd like to begin with a few of our key messages. I'd like to start by thanking all of our highly engaged colleagues at CCEP for their continued hard work and commitment to our business and, most importantly, to our customers and to each other, as we continue to navigate through the effects of COVID-19.

謝謝你，莎拉，非常感謝今天加入我們的每一個人。首先，我想從我們的一些關鍵信息開始。首先，我要感謝 CCEP 的所有高度敬業的同事，感謝他們持續的辛勤工作和對我們業務的承諾，最重要的是，在我們繼續應對 COVID- 19.

2021 was indeed an extraordinary year for CCEP. Solid top line recovery, the largest FMCG value creator, value share gains, operating margin expansion and a remarkable free cash flow generation speak to a strong performance in 2021. Our results also reflect the successful integration of Coca-Cola Amatil, a fantastic business acquisition at the right time. And basing our dividend on the now large business, we're very pleased we paid our largest ever dividend in 2021.

2021年對於CCEP來說確實是不平凡的一年。穩健的收入復甦、最大的快速消費品價值創造者、價值份額增長、營業利潤率擴張和顯著的自由現金流產生表明 2021 年的強勁表現。我們的業績還反映了可口可樂 Amatil 的成功整合，這是一次了不起的業務收購在正確的時間。基於我們現在龐大的業務的股息，我們很高興我們在 2021 年支付了有史以來最大的股息。

So we are well placed as we look to 2022 and beyond. In the near term, we expect to see further volume and mix recovery, whilst managing our key levers of pricing, promotional spend and on driving inefficiencies, with the aim of mitigating inflationary pressures and protecting our margins. Our aim at CCEP is to be smart and sustainable through our people-centric, data-driven and digitally-enabled approach. Disciplined investment in these areas as well as in our portfolio will support our long-term growth ambitions, and all supported by an even stronger relationship with the Coca-Cola Company and all of our other valued brand partners.

因此，我們在展望 2022 年及以後處於有利地位。在短期內，我們預計銷量和組合將進一步復甦，同時管理我們的定價、促銷支出和推動效率低下的關鍵槓桿，以減輕通脹壓力並保護我們的利潤率。我們在 CCEP 的目標是通過我們以人為本、數據驅動和數字化的方法實現智能和可持續發展。在這些領域以及我們的投資組合中進行有紀律的投資將支持我們的長期增長雄心，所有這一切都得到了與可口可樂公司和我們所有其他重要品牌合作夥伴更牢固的關係的支持。

At CCEP, we have a simple, but vital purpose to refresh Europe and now API and critically to make a difference for all our communities and our stakeholders. And we have a simple focus around great people, great service and great beverages, all done sustainably for a better shared future.

在 CCEP，我們有一個簡單但至關重要的目標，即更新歐洲和現在的 API，並至關重要地為我們所有的社區和利益相關者帶來改變。我們只關注優秀的人才、優質的服務和優質的飲料，所有這些都是為了更美好的共同未來而可持續發展的。

So now I'd like to touch on each of these areas as we look back on 2021. As you know, the well-being and safety of our colleagues is our #1 priority. At CCEP, we continue to break down barriers to inclusion. Our colleagues celebrated Pride, Black History Month and International Disability Day across many of our sites. In fact, we were named as 1 of the GB's most admires companies, an accolade acknowledging our DNI credentials.

所以現在我想在回顧 2021 年時談談這些領域中的每一個。如您所知，我們同事的福祉和安全是我們的第一要務。在 CCEP，我們繼續打破包容性障礙。我們的同事在我們的許多站點慶祝驕傲、黑人歷史月和國際殘疾人日。事實上，我們被評為英國最受尊敬的公司之一，這是對我們 DNI 資質的認可。

In New Zealand, we were thrilled to be named Employer of Choice, the only company to receive the gold award in 3 consecutive years. In France, we were recognized by the Top Employers Institute, and across CCEP, we were recognized as a great place to work in our first global engagement and culture survey. Great service has always been a critical element for our customer growth story and engagement. Supporting our customers through the reopening of [Orica] has been a key priority.

在新西蘭，我們很高興被評為最佳雇主，這是唯一一家連續 3 年獲得金獎的公司。在法國，我們獲得了傑出雇主協會的認可，並且在整個 CCEP 中，我們在我們的第一次全球參與度和文化調查中被公認為是工作的好地方。優質的服務一直是我們客戶成長故事和參與度的關鍵要素。通過重新開放 [Orica] 來支持我們的客戶一直是重中之重。

New Zealand were crowned Candler Cup champions, the annual global Coca-Cola system bottler competition, and despite the ongoing challenges, we maintained high levels of customer service in the high 90s and continue to invest in capacity to support our growth and our crucial revenue growth management initiatives.

新西蘭在年度全球可口可樂系統裝瓶商比賽中加冕 Candler Cup 冠軍，儘管面臨持續挑戰，我們仍保持 90 年代高水平的客戶服務，並繼續投資產能以支持我們的增長和關鍵的收入增長管理舉措。

This includes placing around 130,000 cold drink equipment units, increasing our canning capacity and efficiency and accelerating our in-sourcing plans. Our focused and creative Euro football, Halloween and Christmas activation generated great excitement for our customers, our colleagues and our consumers. And on digital, we hit record revenues with our B2B platform and launched several new platforms via our venture's arm.

這包括放置大約 130,000 台冷飲設備，提高我們的罐裝能力和效率，並加快我們的內購計劃。我們專注且富有創意的歐洲足球、萬聖節和聖誕節活動為我們的客戶、同事和消費者帶來了極大的興奮。在數字方面，我們的 B2B 平台創紀錄的收入，並通過我們的合資企業推出了幾個新平台。

We were also extremely privileged to make, move and sell the best beverages in the world. Both Coca-Cola Zero Sugar and Monster continued to outperform across all of our markets. Our new taste, new look, a new campaign for Coca-Cola Zero Sugar in Europe and Australia has been a great success, with full year value share gains of 80 basis points in Europe and 260 basis points in Australia.

我們也非常榮幸能夠製造、運輸和銷售世界上最好的飲料。可口可樂零糖和 Monster 在我們所有的市場中都繼續表現出色。我們的新口味、新面貌、可口可樂零糖在歐洲和澳大利亞的新活動取得了巨大成功，全年價值份額在歐洲和澳大利亞分別增長了 80 個基點和 260 個基點。

What The Fanta, created great excitement for the brand, with value share up 70 basis points, our Monster innovations have supported impressive growth driven by solid distribution and innovation. Overall, versus 2019, we've delivered value share gains of nearly 200 basis points, and our energy portfolio volume has grown by a really impressive 36%. We are very excited about Costa Coffee, and we are readily expanding this great brand outside of Great Britain. And Topo Chico continues to be an exciting opportunity, now launched in 6 of our European markets already with the #2 value position.

芬達為品牌創造了極大的興奮，價值份額提高了 70 個基點，我們的 Monster 創新支持了穩固的分銷和創新推動的令人印象深刻的增長。總體而言，與 2019 年相比，我們實現了近 200 個基點的價值份額增長，我們的能源投資組合數量增長了 36%，令人印象深刻。我們對 Costa Coffee 感到非常興奮，並且我們很容易將這個偉大的品牌擴展到英國之外。 Topo Chico 仍然是一個令人興奮的機會，現已在我們的 6 個歐洲市場推出，價值排名第二。

Now to sustainability, which remains a huge priority for all of us at CCEP. In 2020, we committed to ambitiously reducing our absolute greenhouse gas emissions across our entire value chain by 2030, a target that is embedded in our long-term incentive plans and with the aim to reach Net Zero emissions by 2040. We achieved carbon-neutral status at 2 of our manufacturing sites, and of course, we are working closely with our suppliers to further reduce their emissions.

現在談談可持續發展，這仍然是我們 CCEP 所有人的重中之重。 2020 年，我們承諾到 2030 年雄心勃勃地減少整個價值鏈中的溫室氣體絕對排放量，這一目標已納入我們的長期激勵計劃，旨在到 2040 年實現淨零排放。我們實現了碳中和我們兩個生產基地的狀態，當然，我們正在與我們的供應商密切合作，以進一步減少他們的排放。

We continue to challenge our commitments, bringing them forward where possible, as evidenced by us achieving our 50% recycled PET commitment, a full 2 years early. In Australia and Indonesia, we are investing in new PET recycling facilities. These collaborations are a step forward towards creating a circular economy for PET and will contribute further accelerating our journey towards the ultimate goal of using 100% recycled or renewable plastic.

我們繼續挑戰我們的承諾，在可能的情況下將它們向前推進，我們提前整整 2 年實現了 50% 回收 PET 的承諾就證明了這一點。在澳大利亞和印度尼西亞，我們正在投資新建 PET 回收設施。這些合作是朝著為 PET 創建循環經濟邁出的一步，並將進一步加快我們實現使用 100% 回收或可再生塑料的最終目標的進程。

Now turning to our performance highlights. We continue to win with our customers, having created more absolute value sales growth compared to any of our peers. The NARTD category continues to be robust, growing in value terms by approximately 3% in Europe and over 10% in API. We have grown our value share, both online and in-store and doubled their in-store growth as we extend back to 2019.

現在轉向我們的性能亮點。與我們的任何同行相比，我們繼續與客戶共贏，創造了更多的絕對價值銷售增長。 NARTD 類別繼續保持強勁，在歐洲價值增長約 3%，在 API 增長超過 10%。隨著我們回到 2019 年，我們已經增加了在線和店內的價值份額，並且他們的店內增長翻了一番。

And critically, in Sparkling, we grew both volume and value share last year. So a very solid top line performance. The 4.5% increase in comparable volume obviously reflects reopening of away-from-home and increased consumer mobility given the easing of restrictions and the soft prior year comparables. I am particularly pleased that our continued focus on revenue growth management has driven growth in revenue per case above pre-pandemic levels, a really impressive result given the mix headwinds we have continued to face. We are moving at pace to accelerate our digital transformation, which I'll come back to shortly. We remain focused on efficiency and are on track to deliver the programs and combination benefits that we shared with you last year, and we remain committed to not returning to our pre-pandemic cost base.

至關重要的是，在 Sparkling，我們去年的銷量和價值份額都有所增長。所以一個非常穩固的頂線表現。可比數量增長 4.5% 顯然反映了在放寬限制和去年可比數據疲軟的情況下，外出重新開放以及消費者流動性增加。我特別高興的是，我們對收入增長管理的持續關注推動了每個案例的收入增長超過了大流行前的水平，鑑於我們繼續面臨的混合逆風，這是一個非常令人印象深刻的結果。我們正在加快步伐加快我們的數字化轉型，我稍後會談到這一點。我們仍然專注於效率，並有望交付我們去年與您分享的計劃和組合收益，我們仍然致力於不回到大流行前的成本基礎。

And as I mentioned earlier, I'm very pleased that the integration of API is very well advanced. In the digital space, our transformation journey continues. In online grocery, we continue to see share gains, as I mentioned, our B2B portal, myccep.com, had a record delivering EUR 1.1 billion in revenue, around 20% of our away-from-home business.

正如我之前提到的，我很高興 API 的集成非常先進。在數字領域，我們的轉型之旅仍在繼續。在網上雜貨方面，我們繼續看到份額增長，正如我所提到的，我們的 B2B 門戶網站 myccep.com 創造了創紀錄的 11 億歐元收入，約占我們非家庭業務的 20%。

Our direct-to-consumer platform, new Coca-Cola, celebrated its first birthday extending its personalized cans to Christmas and Valentine's Day. StarStock launch an online marketplace in GB, and we launched Wabi, a B2B ecosystem platform in Portugal in partnership with the Coca-Cola Company as we continue to explore and progress new models that make it easier for our customers to do business with us.

我們的直接面向消費者的平台新可口可樂慶祝了它的第一個生日，將其個性化罐頭擴展到聖誕節和情人節。 StarStock 在英國推出了一個在線市場，我們與可口可樂公司合作在葡萄牙推出了一個 B2B 生態系統平台 Wabi，我們將繼續探索和開發新的模式，讓我們的客戶更容易與我們開展業務。

We are delivering efficiencies in supply chain, and we are making it easier for our colleagues to work flexibly and efficiently with many digital tools. So a great year of progress, with a lot more to come. And on that note, I'd now like to hand over to Nik to talk in more detail to the financial results. Over to you, Nik.

我們正在提高供應鏈的效率，並讓我們的同事更容易使用許多數字工具靈活高效地工作。一年取得了巨大的進步，未來還會有更多。關於這一點，我現在想請 Nik 更詳細地討論財務結果。交給你了，尼克。

Thank you, Damian, and thank you all for joining us today. Let me start by walking you through with our financial summary. We delivered total revenue of EUR 14.8 billion, an increase of 7.5% on a full year pro forma comparable basis. Our COGS per unit case increased by 1.5%. And as you are aware, typically around 85% of our total COGS is variable.

謝謝你，達米安，謝謝大家今天加入我們。讓我先向您介紹我們的財務摘要。我們實現了 148 億歐元的總收入，在全年備考可比基礎上增長了 7.5%。我們每箱的銷貨成本增加了 1.5%。如您所知，通常我們總銷貨成本的 85% 左右是可變的。

This includes our concentrate purchases and finished goods, which have naturally increased in line with our incidence model, reflecting the improvement in revenue per unit case. Commodities have been adverse, driven by higher aluminum and PET prices. But remember, we went into the year with more solid hedge coverage. And finally, approximately 15% relates to manufacturing and D&A, both of which are largely fixed. As expected, we saw a positive impact from the favorable recovery of fixed manufacturing costs given higher volumes.

這包括我們的集中採購和製成品，這與我們的發生率模型自然增加，反映了每單位案件收入的改善。受鋁價和 PET 價格上漲的推動，商品一直不利。但請記住，我們進入這一年時的對沖覆蓋範圍更廣。最後，大約 15% 與製造和 D&A 有關，這兩者在很大程度上是固定的。正如預期的那樣，由於產量增加，我們看到固定製造成本的有利復甦帶來了積極影響。

We delivered operating profit of EUR 1.9 billion, up 23.5%, reflecting our solid top line growth, the benefit of our ongoing efficiency programs and our efforts on managing discretionary spend. On a comparable basis, accounting for the timing of the API acquisition, we delivered operating profit of EUR 1.8 billion, up 46%. We're pleased that both our revenues and pro forma operating margins in the second half of the year approached the pro forma second half performance metrics of 2019.

我們實現了 19 億歐元的營業利潤，增長了 23.5%，這反映了我們穩健的收入增長、我們正在進行的效率計劃的好處以及我們在管理可自由支配支出方面的努力。在可比基礎上，考慮到 API 收購的時間，我們實現了 18 億歐元的營業利潤，增長了 46%。我們很高興下半年的收入和備考營業利潤率均接近 2019 年下半年的備考業績指標。

This not only demonstrates the resilience of our business, but also puts us in a solid position as we enter 2022. Our comparable effective tax rate declined to just under 21% from 24% last year. The reduction is driven by a reassessment of our uncertain tax positions and release of tax reserves that are no longer required.

這不僅證明了我們業務的彈性，而且在我們進入 2022 年時也使我們處於穩固的地位。我們的可比有效稅率從去年的 24% 下降到略低於 21%。減少的原因是對我們不確定的稅收狀況的重新評估以及不再需要的稅收儲備的釋放。

As I referred to at the half year, we indicated a future expectation of an upward move on our effective tax rate, driven mainly by anticipated increases in corporate income tax rates. I will touch on this in a bit more detail shortly.

正如我在半年提到的那樣，我們表示未來預期我們的有效稅率會上升，主要是由於預期的企業所得稅率上升。稍後我將更詳細地討論這一點。

Our performance resulted in a comparable diluted earnings per share of EUR 2.83, accounting for the timing of the API acquisition up 54.5%. Free cash flow generation continues to be a core priority, and, once again, we delivered an impressive performance of approximately EUR 1.4 billion, and I will share more details on that in a few moments.

我們的業績導致每股攤薄收益為 2.83 歐元，佔 API 收購時間的 54.5%。產生自由現金流仍然是核心優先事項，我們再次實現了約 14 億歐元的驕人業績，稍後我將分享更多細節。

And finally, on shareholder returns, we paid a full year dividend of EUR 1.40 a share in December, maintaining our dividend payout ratio of circa 50%, in line with our policy.

最後，在股東回報方面，我們在 12 月份支付了每股 1.40 歐元的全年股息，將股息支付率維持在 50% 左右，符合我們的政策。

In absolute terms, this is the largest dividend we have paid, reflecting the earnings of our enlarged business, but also, importantly, our confidence in being able to continue to navigate our business effectively.

絕對而言，這是我們支付的最大股息，反映了我們擴大業務的收益，但更重要的是，我們對能夠繼續有效地駕馭我們的業務充滿信心。

Now if we move to revenue highlights, where I will focus on the full year given that Q4 drivers are quite similar. The revenue increase was driven by both an increase in volume, as Damian referred to earlier, and importantly, our revenue per unit case growth. Revenue per unit case grew by 3% versus 2020, reflecting positive pack and channel mix following the reopenings in the away-from-home channel, positive brand mix and favorable underlying rate increases, and encouragingly up 1.5% versus 2019.

現在，如果我們轉向收入亮點，鑑於第四季度的驅動因素非常相似，我將重點關注全年。正如 Damian 之前提到的，收入增長是由銷量增長推動的，更重要的是，我們的單位案例收入增長。與 2020 年相比，每箱收入增長了 3%，這反映了離家渠道重新開放後的積極包裝和渠道組合、積極的品牌組合和有利的基本費率增長，與 2019 年相比增長了 1.5%，令人鼓舞。

Solid trading in the home channel continued benefiting from increased at-home occasions as well as continued growth in online grocery, with volumes up 2% versus 2019.

家庭渠道的穩健交易繼續受益於家庭活動的增加以及在線雜貨店的持續增長，交易量與 2019 年相比增長了 2%。

Revenue by segment is also referred to here. You can see more detailed commentary by geography in the release, but at the headline level, full year performance has been similar across Europe and API, with great Britain and New Zealand being the standouts, with revenues ahead of 2019.

此處還提到了按部門劃分的收入。您可以在新聞稿中看到更詳細的地理評論，但在標題級別，歐洲和 API 的全年表現相似，英國和新西蘭是佼佼者，收入超過 2019 年。

Now moving to our efficiency programs. As a reminder, we announced EUR 200 million to EUR 225 million of efficiency savings in Europe, and AUD 145 million or EUR 90 million for API. We also communicated combination benefits of EUR 60 million to EUR 80 million weighted towards 2022 and beyond. These preannounced efficiency savings and combination benefits equate to EUR 350 million to EUR 395 million in total and remain on track.

現在轉到我們的效率計劃。提醒一下，我們宣佈在歐洲節省 2 億至 2.25 億歐元的效率，並為 API 節省 1.45 億澳元或 9000 萬歐元。我們還傳達了 2022 年及以後的 6000 萬歐元至 8000 萬歐元的綜合收益。這些預先宣布的效率節約和綜合收益總計相當於 3.5 億歐元至 3.95 億歐元，並且仍在正常進行。

So far in line with the indicative dates on the slide, we have so far delivered approximately 65% of these commitments. This includes the permanent savings from the 2020 mitigation programs in Europe and API such as less travel and meetings and more efficient trade marketing spend as well as the more structural efficiencies from Europe's accelerate competitiveness and API's Fighting Fit programs. These included structural headcount changes across field sales, central supply chain and support functions and the closure of 3 plants in Europe during 2020 to address duplication, increase efficiency and scale and simplify how we work.

到目前為止，與幻燈片上的指示性日期一致，我們迄今已兌現了大約 65% 的承諾。這包括歐洲和 API 的 2020 年緩解計劃帶來的永久節省，例如更少的差旅和會議、更有效的貿易營銷支出，以及歐洲的加速競爭力和 API 的 Fighting Fit 計劃帶來的更多結構性效率。其中包括現場銷售、中央供應鍊和支持職能部門的結構性人員變動，以及 2020 年在歐洲關閉 3 家工廠以解決重複問題、提高效率和規模並簡化我們的工作方式。

As we move into 2022, the next wave of these programs will take effect. We will also start to unlock more of the combination benefits from areas such as procurement and supply chain. These ongoing programs, along with our continuous efforts on discretionary spend optimization are helping us to protect profits and margins in the short term while ensuring that we will be fit and competitive for the longer term.

隨著我們進入 2022 年，下一波這些計劃將生效。我們還將開始從採購和供應鍊等領域釋放更多的組合優勢。這些正在進行的計劃以及我們在可自由支配支出優化方面的持續努力正在幫助我們在短期內保護利潤和利潤，同時確保我們在長期內保持健康和競爭力。

Now as we communicated last year, we committed to rebasing our cost base versus pre-pandemic levels. And you can see that here as a percent of revenue, our OpEx is lower now, not only compared to last year, but more importantly, compared to 2019. Going forward, we will continue to manage very tightly, but we do anticipate some volume-related increases in OpEx given that roughly 1/3 of our OpEx is variable in nature. And as that recovery continues, focused investment in TME will be needed to support that recovery, and we are naturally seeing upward inflationary pressures in areas like labor and haulage.

現在，正如我們去年溝通的那樣，我們承諾將我們的成本基礎與大流行前的水平相比較。您可以在這裡看到，作為收入的百分比，我們的運營支出現在較低，不僅與去年相比，更重要的是，與 2019 年相比。展望未來，我們將繼續非常嚴格地管理，但我們確實預計會有一些數量鑑於我們大約 1/3 的 OpEx 在本質上是可變的，因此與 OpEx 相關的增長。隨著這種複甦的繼續，將需要對 TME 進行集中投資以支持這種複蘇，我們自然會看到勞動力和運輸等領域的通脹壓力上升。

So let me now turn to free cash flow in a bit more detail, a hugely important metric for us. Despite the challenging backdrop, we generated nearly EUR 1.4 billion of free cash flow in 2021. Based on full year 2022 (inaudible) consensus estimates for free cash flow, our free cash flow yield equates to around 7%. On this slide, you can see the key components of the full year 2021 free cash flow, and I will call out a few items in particular.

因此，現在讓我更詳細地談談自由現金流，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的指標。儘管背景充滿挑戰，但我們在 2021 年產生了近 14 億歐元的自由現金流。根據 2022 年全年（聽不清）自由現金流的共識估計，我們的自由現金流收益率約為 7%。在這張幻燈片上，您可以看到 2021 年全年自由現金流的關鍵組成部分，我將特別指出一些項目。

As you might recall when the pandemic first hit our markets, we moved at speed to review all sources and uses of cash to preserve maximum flexibility. As we said this time last year, we expected to maintain CapEx in 2021 at 2020 levels given the continued uncertainty. Recognizing the importance of targeted investment, and now including API since May, we spent nearly EUR 420 million, excluding leases, on supply chain, digital and other technologies as well as cold drink equipment. And despite the backdrop, we delivered an impressive reported working capital inflow of EUR 270 million in 2021, driven by Europe, taking up cumulative improvements to well over $1 billion since 2017, a very strong performance and importantly, more to come.

您可能還記得，當大流行首次襲擊我們的市場時，我們迅速審查了現金的所有來源和用途，以保持最大的靈活性。正如我們去年這個時候所說，鑑於持續的不確定性，我們預計 2021 年的資本支出將維持在 2020 年的水平。認識到有針對性的投資的重要性，現在包括 API，自 5 月以來，我們在供應鏈、數字和其他技術以及冷飲設備上花費了近 4.2 億歐元（不包括租賃）。儘管有這樣的背景，但在歐洲的推動下，我們在 2021 年實現了令人印象深刻的 2.7 億歐元營運資金流入，自 2017 年以來累計增加超過 10 億美元，這是一個非常強勁的表現，重要的是，未來還會有更多。

And now to our leverage and balance sheet. As you know, we entered this crisis from a position of strength, having delevered quickly post merger, driven by our strong free cash flow generation. We ended 2019 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.7x, in line with our target leverage range of 2.5 to 3x. Leverage peaked at approximately 5x upon closing the Amatil transaction in May. But given our strong focus on cash and working capital improvements, we are confident that we will return to our target leverage range by full year 2024, while remaining fully committed to our strong investment-grade ratings. As you will see here, we closed full year '21 at 4.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

現在是我們的槓桿和資產負債表。如您所知，在我們強大的自由現金流產生的推動下，我們在合併後迅速去槓桿，是從實力地位進入這場危機的。 2019 年底，我們的淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 2.7 倍，符合我們 2.5 至 3 倍的目標槓桿範圍。在 5 月份完成 Amatil 交易後，槓桿率達到了大約 5 倍的峰值。但鑑於我們對現金和營運資本改善的高度關注，我們有信心到 2024 年全年將回到我們的目標槓桿範圍，同時繼續完全致力於我們強大的投資級評級。正如您將在此處看到的，我們以 4.3 倍的淨債務與調整後的 EBITDA 結束了 21 年全年。

Our deleveraging will be through a combination of using the higher combined cash flows of our now enlarged business and a continued strong focus on being disciplined around our investments, and of course, working capital improvements that I mentioned earlier. There's not only more opportunity for driving working capital improvements in Europe, but having also aligned API's annual incentives to Europe to incorporate free cash flow work is underway to apply the best practices to API as well. So looking now to full year 2022. Our guidance today reflects current market conditions, which do remain uncertain.

我們的去槓桿化將通過結合使用我們現在擴大的業務的更高綜合現金流和繼續大力關注我們的投資，當然還有我之前提到的營運資本改善。不僅有更多的機會推動歐洲的營運資本改善，而且還將 API 的年度激勵措施與歐洲相結合，以納入自由現金流工作，以將最佳實踐應用於 API。因此，現在展望 2022 年全年。我們今天的指導反映了當前的市場狀況，這些狀況仍然不確定。

First to revenue. From a volume perspective, although we saw a solid recovery in 2021, volumes do still remain below 2019 levels, mainly driven by our away-from-home channel performance. So we expect to see continued momentum in this channel, supporting volume and mix recovery. We continue to optimize our recommended pricing and work with our customers to optimize our range and pack architecture. And we continue to leverage data analytics, customer and consumer insights to drive smart RGM initiatives to expand the category and continue to create value for our customers.

首先是收入。從銷量的角度來看，雖然我們看到 2021 年出現了穩健的複蘇，但銷量確實仍低於 2019 年的水平，這主要受我們的非家庭渠道表現的推動。因此，我們預計該渠道將繼續保持勢頭，支持成交量和混合復甦。我們將繼續優化我們的建議定價，並與我們的客戶合作優化我們的產品系列和包裝架構。我們繼續利用數據分析、客戶和消費者洞察力來推動智能 RGM 計劃，以擴大類別並繼續為我們的客戶創造價值。

Given the inflationary backdrop, pricing will need to take a bigger role in 2022 compared to previous years. As you know, we have been able to achieve price increases in previous years, typically representing, at some points, at least half of our revenue per unit case growth across headline price and optimizing our promotional spend. To date, we are executing our pricing strategies successfully across many of our markets, except, for example, France, where the negotiation is currently ongoing. This all translates into revenue growth guidance on a comparable and currency-neutral basis of between 6% and 8%, with about half coming from volume and the other half coming from price and mix.

鑑於通脹背景，與往年相比，定價在 2022 年將需要發揮更大的作用。如您所知，我們已經能夠在前幾年實現價格上漲，通常在某些時候代表我們在標題價格和優化促銷支出方面每單位案例收入增長的至少一半。迄今為止，我們在許多市場上都成功地執行了我們的定價策略，例如目前正在進行談判的法國除外。這一切都轉化為在可比和貨幣中性基礎上 6% 至 8% 的收入增長指導，其中大約一半來自銷量，另一半來自價格和組合。

Now to COGS, a chart you've all seen before, and the moving parts which I spoke to earlier when referring to 2021 still very much intact as we look at '22. So for '22, I don't think we're immune to the dynamic macro and uncertain inflationary environment. As we have seen it today, we expect elevated commodity inflation, reflecting our latest hedging position of approximately 57%, up from approximately 45% in October. This is weighted, meaning we're almost fully hedged for the first quarter, about 60% for the second quarter, with the remainder coverage in the second half.

現在到 COGS，一張你們以前都看過的圖表，以及我之前談到 2021 年時談到的活動部分，當我們看到 22 年時，它們仍然完好無損。所以對於 22 年，我認為我們不能倖免於動態的宏觀和不確定的通脹環境。正如我們今天所看到的，我們預計商品通脹會上升，這反映了我們最新的對沖頭寸約為 57%，高於 10 月份的約 45%。這是加權的，這意味著我們在第一季度幾乎完全對沖，第二季度約為 60%，其餘部分在下半年進行。

So we will continue to closely monitor the appropriate trigger levels to lock in more of our unhedged exposures depending on market conditions. We currently expect commodity inflation to be in the high single-digit range for 2022. This translates, with other factors as I mentioned earlier, to our latest view on COGS per unit case for the full year of an increase of around 5%. Clearly, this guidance is based on what we know today. Given the level of uncertainty, we will continue to update you more as the year progresses.

因此，我們將繼續密切監控適當的觸發水平，以根據市場情況鎖定更多未對沖的風險敞口。我們目前預計 2022 年商品通脹將處於高個位數範圍內。這與我之前提到的其他因素一起轉化為我們對全年每單位商品銷貨成本的最新看法，即增長約 5%。顯然，這個指導是基於我們今天所知道的。鑑於不確定性的程度，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續為您提供更多更新。

Continuing with the remaining guidance on operating profit, we are guiding to a range of 6% to 9% growth versus 2021, again, on a comparable and currency-neutral basis. This will be delivered through a combination of expected volume and mix recovery. While managing our key levers of pricing, promotional and discretionary spend and efficiencies. Given the uncertain inflationary backdrop, we are not discounting a second round of pricing and further promotional spend optimization, while, of course, ensuring that we remain competitive in order to protect the broader health and affordability, but also our strong position within the NARTD category.

繼續對營業利潤的其餘指導，我們再次在可比和貨幣中性的基礎上指導與 2021 年相比增長 6% 至 9% 的範圍。這將通過預期數量和混合回收的組合來實現。同時管理我們的定價、促銷和可自由支配支出和效率的關鍵槓桿。鑑於不確定的通脹背景，我們不會打折第二輪定價和進一步的促銷支出優化，當然，同時確保我們保持競爭力以保護更廣泛的健康和負擔能力，以及我們在 NARTD 類別中的強勢地位.

And lastly, the effective comparable effective tax rate for full year 2022 will be 22% to 23%, which is based on enacted tax legislation, and assumes no significant change in our assessment of uncertain tax positions at this stage. We will, of course, continue to update you as the year progresses.

最後，2022 年全年的有效可比有效稅率將為 22% 至 23%，這是基於已頒布的稅收立法，並假設我們現階段對不確定稅收狀況的評估沒有重大變化。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們會繼續為您提供最新信息。

And then finally, a reminder on our key objectives based on the medium term, which all remain very much intact. We will continue to maintain our competitive and progressive dividend payout ratio at around 50%. This year, we will revert to 2 interim dividends as was our standard cadence pre the pandemic.

最後，提醒我們基於中期的關鍵目標，這些目標都保持完好。我們將繼續將具有競爭力和累進的派息率維持在 50% 左右。今年，我們將恢復到 2 次中期股息，就像我們在大流行前的標準節奏一樣。

As detailed in the release, we are simplifying the mechanism across the 2 payments. The first will be calculated as 40% of the prior year full year dividend, with the second being paid with reference to the current year annualized total dividend payout ratio. And with that, I'm going to hand back to Damian. Damian?

如發布中所述，我們正在簡化 2 次付款的機制。第一項將按上一年度全年分紅的40%計算，第二項按當年年度化總分紅率支付。有了這個，我將交還給 Damian。達米安？

Thank you, Nik. I just wanted to now touch on the Amatil transaction, an exciting transaction that firmly underpins those medium-term objectives, giving us even greater confidence in our revenue and operating growth ambitions, simply a great move at the right time. Since closing the deal in May, we've made excellent progress on the integration of API. We have our key talent in place. We are bringing our people, systems and processes together to allow us to collaborate and operate as one. And we are already and continue to share learnings and best practices across all of our markets. The investments and solutions that we've been making in our European IT infrastructure are now being leveraged and scaled at API. And we are bringing excellent segmented channel profitability analysis in API back to Europe to identify further headroom for growth opportunities in our business.

謝謝你，尼克。我現在只想談一談 Amatil 交易，這是一項令人興奮的交易，它堅定地支持了這些中期目標，讓我們對我們的收入和運營增長目標更有信心，這只是在正確的時間採取的偉大舉措。自 5 月完成交易以來，我們在 API 集成方面取得了出色的進展。我們擁有關鍵人才。我們正在將我們的人員、系統和流程整合在一起，以使我們能夠作為一個整體進行協作和運作。我們已經並將繼續在我們所有的市場中分享經驗教訓和最佳實踐。我們在歐洲 IT 基礎設施中所做的投資和解決方案現在正在 API 中得到利用和擴展。我們正在將 API 中出色的細分渠道盈利能力分析帶回歐洲，以確定我們業務增長機會的進一步空間。

Close to our hearts, we are, of course, working on aligning our sustainability commitment across CCEP. And finally, and very importantly, we are already driving system value creation with the Coca-Cola Company to better align our portfolio and focus more on our core brands. We continue to remain externally focused throughout this process as we know the success of this integration will be determined in the market and with our customers. So with that in mind, we've recently reached an agreement with the Coca-Cola Company to transfer the ownership of our CCEP owned NARTD brands in Australia, New Zealand and Fiji, subject to Overseas Investment Office Approval in New Zealand. This will drive better alignment with our franchise partner to maximize value creation for our customers and for the system.

當然，在我們內心深處，我們正在努力在整個 CCEP 中調整我們的可持續發展承諾。最後，非常重要的是，我們已經在與可口可樂公司一起推動系統價值創造，以更好地調整我們的產品組合併更多地關注我們的核心品牌。在整個過程中，我們將繼續保持外部關注，因為我們知道這種整合的成功將取決於市場和我們的客戶。因此，考慮到這一點，我們最近與可口可樂公司達成協議，轉讓我們 CCEP 在澳大利亞、新西蘭和斐濟擁有的 NARTD 品牌的所有權，但須經新西蘭海外投資辦公室批准。這將推動與我們的特許經營合作夥伴更好地保持一致，從而最大限度地為我們的客戶和系統創造價值。

Alongside this, we continue to progress our previously announced plans to exit beer and apple cider in Australia. From a timing perspective, we anticipate these changes will complete substantially by the end of the first half. In NARTD, to provide a sense of scale, the 5 Australian brands equate to roughly 13% of Australian volume, and the 5 New Zealand brands about 9% of New Zealand volume.

除此之外，我們繼續推進我們之前宣布的退出澳大利亞啤酒和蘋果酒的計劃。從時間的角度來看，我們預計這些變化將在上半年結束時基本完成。在 NARTD 中，為了提供規模感，5 個澳大利亞品牌約佔澳大利亞銷量的 13%，5 個新西蘭品牌約佔新西蘭銷量的 9%。

There will not be any impact to the associated volumes or revenues. However, they will transition to the broadly 50-50 instance-based concentrate model. This will equate to an approximate EBIT impact of AUD 25 million per annum. So roughly half of that given the expected timing this year. We will receive AUD 275 million on completion. And given the scale of our beer and cider portfolio in Australia, the overall impact to the API segment of these moves is relatively small. These are, however, important changes to enable us to give greater focus on NARTD and our ready-to-drink alcohol and spirits business.

不會對相關的銷量或收入產生任何影響。但是，他們將過渡到廣泛的基於 50-50 個實例的集中模型。這相當於每年約 2500 萬澳元的息稅前利潤影響。考慮到今年的預期時間，大約是其中的一半。完成後我們將獲得 2.75 億澳元。鑑於我們在澳大利亞的啤酒和蘋果酒產品組合的規模，這些舉措對 API 部分的總體影響相對較小。然而，這些都是重要的變化，使我們能夠更加關注 NARTD 和我們的即飲酒精和烈酒業務。

Indonesia is undoubtedly 1 of the most important opportunities for the Coca-Cola company globally, and we see a clear pathway to the long-term transformation opportunity. The key to unlocking this is having great people in place. Led by Jorge, our new General Manager, who joined us from 1 of the Mexican Coca-Cola bottlers, beyond Jorge, we are also progressing well with a wider leadership team, including transferring talent from some of our European markets.

印度尼西亞無疑是可口可樂公司在全球範圍內最重要的機遇之一，我們看到了通往長期轉型機遇的明確途徑。解鎖這一點的關鍵是讓優秀的人到位。在我們的新任總經理 Jorge 的帶領下，他從 Jorge 以外的 1 個墨西哥可口可樂裝瓶商加入我們，我們的領導團隊也更廣泛，包括從我們的一些歐洲市場轉移人才，我們也取得了良好的進展。

Pivotal to Indonesia's success is to developed the Sparkling category. It's where we have differentiation, distinctiveness and our right to win. Alongside this, we will continue to build our solid foundations with the ready-to-drink tea category. We need to simplify the business by focusing on the core, supported by the appropriate pack and price architecture to drive consumer relevance. And we also see opportunities to improve our route-to-market and supply chain capabilities to support our in-market execution. As Ramadan is only around the corner, we already have exciting plans in place. This is a key occasion in the calendar, representing about 1/3 of our annual Sparkling sales. It's great that our consumers enjoy our drinks with their friends and family during this period. So converting more of the seasonal penetration into year-round performance has to be a clear opportunity for us. We will share more on our plans in due course.

印度尼西亞成功的關鍵是開發了起泡酒類別。這是我們擁有差異化、獨特性和獲勝權的地方。除此之外，我們將繼續在即飲茶品類領域打下堅實的基礎。我們需要通過關注核心來簡化業務，並得到適當的包裝和價格架構的支持，以提高消費者的相關性。我們還看到了改善我們的市場路徑和供應鏈能力以支持我們的市場執行的機會。由於齋月即將來臨，我們已經制定了激動人心的計劃。這是日曆中的一個關鍵時刻，約占我們年度起泡酒銷售額的 1/3。很高興我們的消費者在此期間與他們的朋友和家人一起享用我們的飲品。因此，將更多的季節性滲透轉化為全年業績對我們來說必須是一個明顯的機會。我們將在適當的時候分享更多關於我們的計劃。

And finally, talking of wider excitement, we've got plenty to look forward to. We will continue to invest in Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, with a great new gaming promotion and marketing campaign, Real Thrills, Real Magic. Other examples across our portfolio extend to exciting new flavor variations, mystery with our next What The Fanta, campaign, the continued rollout of Costa to new markets as well as many new packs. For example, in France, we are launching water refillable glass bottle across many of our core brands. This move will simplify bottle management for our HoReCa customers and wholesalers whilst reducing our carbon footprint.

最後，談到更廣泛的興奮，我們有很多期待。我們將繼續投資可口可樂零糖，推出全新的遊戲促銷和營銷活動 Real Thrills, Real Magic。我們產品組合中的其他例子包括令人興奮的新口味變化、我們下一個 What The Fanta 活動的神秘感、Costa 繼續向新市場推出以及許多新包裝。例如，在法國，我們正在為我們的許多核心品牌推出可再填充玻璃瓶。此舉將為我們的 HoReCa 客戶和批發商簡化瓶子管理，同時減少我們的碳足跡。

So 2021 really was an extraordinary year, and we are well placed for 2022 and beyond, alongside the Coca-Cola Company and our other brand partners. And as I started by thanking our engaged and committed colleagues, I wish to end on the same note as we look to the future. Thank you for your time today. Nik and I will now be happy to take your questions, and I'll hand back to you, operator. Thank you.

因此，2021 年確實是不平凡的一年，我們與可口可樂公司和我們的其他品牌合作夥伴一起為 2022 年及以後做好了準備。當我開始感謝我們敬業和忠誠的同事時，我希望在我們展望未來時以同樣的方式結束。謝謝你今天的時間。 Nik 和我現在很樂意回答您的問題，我會轉交給您，接線員。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Charlie Higgs from Redburn.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Charlie Higgs。

I've got a question on the pricing environment. I was just wondering if you could comment on what you're seeing across your markets, whether you're seeing branded competitors and private label behaving rationally. And then, please, could you just clarify the point on pricing in France when you say the negotiations are still ongoing? I think in previous years, we've had quite extended negotiations in France and a bit of disruption. So if you could just clarify that point, please?

我有一個關於定價環境的問題。我只是想知道您是否可以評論您在整個市場中看到的情況，您是否看到品牌競爭對手和自有品牌行為合理。然後，當您說談判仍在進行中時，能否澄清一下法國定價的問題？我認為，在前幾年，我們在法國進行了相當長時間的談判，並受到了一些干擾。所以，如果你能澄清這一點，好嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Charlie. I think what we're seeing is kind of what we talked about as we closed out '21 is that we're seeing certainly pricing ahead of the kind of normal cadence that we've seen in previous years. And I think that's clearly on the back of the inflationary pressures that Nik outlined, and I suppose they're across all industries in all categories.

是的。謝謝你，查理。我認為我們所看到的就是我們在 21 年結束時所說的那樣，我們看到的定價肯定超過了我們在前幾年看到的那種正常節奏。我認為這顯然是基於 Nik 概述的通脹壓力，我想它們遍及所有類別的所有行業。

So we are seeing higher-than-normal pricing coming into the market. And whether you define that as rational or not, but that's what we're seeing. Clearly, from our perspective, and I'll let Nik talk about France, in particular, we're quite pleased with where we are coming into '22. As we've called out before, we're managing the challenges on inflation, I think, with a view both to protect '22, but most importantly, to protect our franchise for the mid- to long term. So I think we've got a lot of levers to play with at CCP. I think we've built some really strong capability in RGM.

因此，我們看到市場上的定價高於正常水平。無論您是否將其定義為理性，但這就是我們所看到的。顯然，從我們的角度來看，我會讓 Nik 談談法國，特別是，我們對進入 22 年的情況感到非常滿意。正如我們之前所說，我認為我們正在應對通脹挑戰，既要保護 22 年，又要保護我們的中長期特許經營權。所以我認為我們在 CCP 有很多方法可以發揮作用。我認為我們已經在 RGM 中建立了一些非常強大的能力。

So as we look at our strategy this year, you'll see, obviously, above average pricing. You'll see more mix coming through, particularly as away-from-home continues to reopen across all of our markets. And obviously, we're benefiting from volume coming back into our business as the pandemic eases. So we've probably got a few more tools to play with. And obviously, we've got a very diverse channel mix compared to a lot of other FMCG who are really retail-focused. So I think all of that plays out well for CCEP. And I'll just hand over to Nik now to just share a bit more color on France?

因此，當我們審視我們今年的策略時，你會看到，顯然，定價高於平均水平。你會看到更多的組合出現，尤其是在我們所有市場繼續重新開放的情況下。顯然，隨著大流行的緩解，我們正從業務量恢復中受益。所以我們可能還有更多的工具可以使用。顯然，與許多其他真正專注於零售的快速消費品相比，我們擁有非常多樣化的渠道組合。所以我認為所有這些對 CCEP 來說都很好。我現在就交給 Nik 來分享更多關於法國的色彩嗎？

Yes. Charlie, I think as we've continued to say, we've created a lot of value for all our retail customers since our formation back in 2016 as European, and as we continue under Europacific, which includes France as well. So -- and I think, quite honestly, we're very focused on making sure that continues. So in France, the legal deadline for the customer negotiations is the 1st of March, so nothing new there. Yes, you're right, we have encountered disruptions in France and other markets in the past. But I think our teams continue to have very productive discussions with the retailers.

是的。查理，我認為正如我們繼續說的那樣，自 2016 年我們在歐洲成立以來，我們為所有零售客戶創造了很多價值，並且隨著我們繼續在包括法國在內的歐洲太平洋地區繼續運營。所以 - 我認為，老實說，我們非常專注於確保這種情況繼續下去。所以在法國，客戶談判的法定截止日期是 3 月 1 日，所以沒有什麼新鮮事。是的，你是對的，我們過去曾在法國和其他市場遇到過中斷。但我認為我們的團隊繼續與零售商進行富有成效的討論。

So I think we look forward to a positive outcome. I think France has just been 1 of the more challenging markets from a pricing perspective. But with today's reality of really exceptional inflationary pressures, I don't think France is immune. So I don't think it's an option to really hold our headline price. I think our brand equities are strong. So our consumer kind of acceptance should be there. And that's what our retailers and us should be focused in on in terms of that joint value creation going forward as well.

所以我認為我們期待一個積極的結果。我認為從定價的角度來看，法國祇是更具挑戰性的市場之一。但鑑於當今通脹壓力非常大的現實，我認為法國也不能倖免。所以我不認為真正保持我們的標題價格是一個選擇。我認為我們的品牌資產很強勁。所以我們的消費者接受度應該在那裡。這也是我們的零售商和我們在未來共同創造價值方面應該關注的重點。

Your next question comes from the line of Simon Hales from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗的 Simon Hales。

I wonder, could I just sort of probe a bit further on your hedging position on COGS between '22 a little bit more, then perhaps where you are on some of the specific raw materials? I know you've shared in the past, perhaps where you are hedged in relation to things like aluminum. I just wonder where you are now on that. And just to clarify, overall, in terms 5% COGS per case expectation that you've got. I assume that is based on current spot prices just holding from here on the unhedged part.

我想知道，我能否進一步探討一下您在 22 年之間對 COGS 的對沖頭寸，然後也許您在某些特定原材料上的位置？我知道您過去曾分享過，也許您在鋁之類的東西方面受到了對沖。我只是想知道你現在在哪裡。並且只是為了澄清，總體而言，就您所擁有的每個案例預期 5% 的銷貨成本而言。我假設這是基於當前現貨價格僅持有未對沖部分。

Yes. Great question, Simon. So I think if you look, as I said, our average hedge coverage is just under 60% and over 90% for Q1 and about 60% for Q2. So in a much better position for half 1. When you look across the commodities, again, if you look at, again, where we're seeing the most volatility, which is around [Ali], we're probably in those same ratios for Q1 and Q2. So clearly, second half more open as we continue to believe there should be some triggers that look at that price coming down.

是的。好問題，西蒙。因此，我認為，正如我所說，我們的平均對沖覆蓋率略低於 60%，第一季度超過 90%，第二季度約為 60%。因此，對於 1 年而言處於更好的位置。當你再次查看大宗商品時，如果你再次查看我們看到波動最大的地方，也就是 [Ali] 附近，我們可能處於相同的比率對於第一季度和第二季度。很明顯，下半年更加開放，因為我們仍然認為應該有一些觸發因素會導致價格下跌。

When you asked the question around that 5%, that 5% would normally assume us getting to about that circa 80% hedge level that we would normally go into the year at, right? So if you remember our policy, typically, we try and go in, in the current year at 80% and typically keep about 20% open as we go through.

當你問關於 5% 的問題時，這 5% 通常會假設我們達到了我們通常會進入今年的大約 80% 的對沖水平，對吧？因此，如果您還記得我們的政策，通常情況下，我們會嘗試在本年度以 80% 的速度進入，並且通常會在我們完成時保持大約 20% 的開放。

So that's what that will be based on. So if you actually went to 100% covering its spot, which is not normally what we would do, you'd see a slightly higher impact. But we'll update you as we go through the year on that.

所以這就是它的基礎。因此，如果你真的去 100% 覆蓋它的位置，這通常不是我們會做的，你會看到稍微更高的影響。但是我們會在這一年中更新您。

Your next question comes from the line of Fintan Ryan from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Fintan Ryan。

Just in terms of your free cash generation for 2021, if you think around 2022, could you give us a sense of the bridge, particularly with regards to CapEx and working capital? And are you still confident of delivering the at least EUR 1.25 billion free cash for 2022 and beyond?

就您 2021 年的自由現金產生而言，如果您考慮到 2022 年左右，您能否給我們一個橋樑的感覺，特別是在資本支出和營運資本方面？您是否仍然有信心在 2022 年及以後交付至少 12.5 億歐元的自由現金？

Yes. Well, listen, I think, Fintan, as you've probably seen, for the last several years, we've had a very strong focus on free cash flow, and you've seen our delivery of the numbers, and I think 2021 was no exception.

是的。好吧，聽著，我想，Fintan，正如你可能已經看到的那樣，在過去的幾年裡，我們非常關注自由現金流，你已經看到了我們交付的數據，我認為 2021也不例外。

So our midterm objective of at least EUR 1.25 billion as a floor still remains very much intact. I would say to you, if you look at 2022, I think the key drivers there would be clearly a positive impact from EBITDA growth on the top line. when you've got obviously cash investments in CapEx. I think Damian might have continued to stay very focused and disciplined around that.

因此，我們至少 12.5 億歐元的中期目標仍然保持不變。我想對你說，如果你看看 2022 年，我認為主要驅動因素顯然會來自 EBITDA 增長對收入的積極影響。當您在資本支出中獲得明顯的現金投資時。我認為達米安可能會繼續保持非常專注和自律。

Clearly, that will be an area that we will continue to want to invest in for growth. But then we will also continue to see working capital improvements coming through. So if I actually look at it. Yes, that floor of the EUR 1.25 billion is there, but there is no reason why we actually wouldn't be growing relative to our 2021 delivery as well. But obviously, as we go through the year, we'll provide more updates on that.

顯然，這將是我們將繼續投資以實現增長的領域。但隨後我們還將繼續看到營運資金的改善。所以如果我真的看它。是的，12.5 億歐元的底線已經存在，但我們沒有理由相對於 2021 年的交付量實際上不會增長。但顯然，隨著我們度過這一年，我們將提供更多更新。

And just in terms of -- just a follow-up, in terms of the CapEx requirements, I think you mentioned during the year that you had some supply chain issues with Monster Energy. I note that in Q4, their growth is just 11% and below what you delivered for the year. Is that Monster Energy something that you'd be actively looking to in-source in those CapEx funds?

就資本支出要求而言，我認為您在這一年中提到您與 Monster Energy 存在一些供應鏈問題。我注意到，在第四季度，它們的增長率僅為 11%，低於您當年的表現。 Monster Energy 是您積極尋求在這些資本支出基金中內購的東西嗎？

Absolutely. So we're very focused with both our supply chain team and with our partners at Monster to make the right investments to be able to really support a lot more in-house manufacturing to support that growth that's coming. So that's probably a multiyear plan, but that's very much baked into how we think about 2022, in particular.

絕對地。因此，我們非常關注我們的供應鏈團隊和 Monster 的合作夥伴，以進行正確的投資，以便能夠真正支持更多的內部製造，以支持即將到來的增長。所以這可能是一個多年計劃，但這在很大程度上融入了我們對 2022 年的看法，尤其是。

So our guidance range typically of that circa 4% to 5% of CapEx of NSR still stays very much intact, and we'll manage that tightly.

因此，我們的指導範圍通常約為 NSR 資本支出的 4% 至 5%，仍然保持完好無損，我們將對此進行嚴格管理。

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Edward Mundy。

Just a question on the revenue guidance of 6% to 8%, which you hopefully have split roughly 3% to 4% volume and 3% to 4% price. If we unpick that, first of all, on the volume side, I guess what we've seen is the at-home channel has been incredibly resilient despite the reopening and the way from home is still 16% down from pre-pandemic levels. If you think about 2022 being another year of pretty decent recovery, why shouldn't we see growth closer to the 4.5% sort of delivered this year on the volume side?

只是一個關於 6% 到 8% 的收入指導的問題，希望您將其分成大約 3% 到 4% 的數量和 3% 到 4% 的價格。如果我們首先取消選擇這一點，在數量方面，我想我們所看到的是，儘管重新開放，但在家中的渠道仍然具有令人難以置信的彈性，而且離家出走的方式仍比大流行前的水平下降了 16%。如果您認為 2022 年又是一個相當不錯的複蘇年，為什麼我們不應該看到今年在銷量方面的增長接近 4.5% 呢？

And then on the revenue per case price mix side, you've just delivered 5.5%, I think, in Q4, which seems more pack mix and primary optimization orientated rather than headline pricing. Why shouldn't we see more than 3% to 4% as we go into 2022, especially if some of the pricing gets realized?

然後在每箱價格組合方面的收入方面，我認為，在第四季度，您剛剛交付了 5.5%，這似乎更多地以包裝組合和主要優化為導向，而不是標題定價。進入 2022 年，為什麼我們不應該看到超過 3% 到 4% 的增長，尤其是在一些定價得以實現的情況下？

Thanks, Ed. Good questions, as always. Clearly, as we look at that guidance, we've taken a view that we see recovery coming in away from home, but with still some degree of hesitation on HoReCa in particular. We're taking a view also around summer tourism still a bit away in terms of what the behavior of consumers is really going to be. So we've kind of reflected that when we looked at our volume. You're right. I think what we're seeing is a solid performance in retail. That's continued solid performance and online.

謝謝，埃德。好問題，一如既往。顯然，當我們查看該指南時，我們認為我們看到復蘇正在遠離家鄉，但仍對 HoReCa 持一定程度的猶豫。我們也正在考慮夏季旅遊，就消費者的實際行為而言，還有一段距離。因此，當我們查看我們的交易量時，我們已經反映了這一點。你是對的。我認為我們看到的是零售業的穩健表現。這是持續穩定的表現和在線。

As '22 moves forward, we are seeing good recovery, particularly in Northern Europe, as restrictions kind of close out in markets like Belgium, the Netherlands. If you look at our GB numbers in Q4, I mean, I think they stand out, and I think GB, for those of us living in the U.K. know that as the restrictions came down earlier there, it's kind of given a pathway for other markets in Europe for what we can expect, and I suppose that's what we're seeing in Q1.

隨著 '22 年的發展，我們看到了良好的複蘇，尤其是在北歐，因為比利時、荷蘭等市場的限制措施即將結束。如果您查看我們在第四季度的 GB 數據，我的意思是，我認為它們很突出，而且我認為 GB，對於我們這些生活在英國的人來說，知道隨著那裡的限制較早出台，這為其他人提供了一條途徑我們可以期待的歐洲市場，我想這就是我們在第一季度看到的。

So we'll obviously monitor that as we go through the year and update. On the price mix, again, we're taking a view on really our headline pricing will be ahead of previous years for sure in '22. There will be a mix benefit. But again, that goes back to how quick when we see HoReCa and away-from-home getting back to pre-pandemic levels. We haven't seen that full year '22 yet, and that's reflected in those assumptions. So that's how we're looking at it.

因此，我們顯然會在一年中進行監控並進行更新。在價格組合方面，我們再次認為，我們的整體定價在 22 年肯定會領先於往年。會有一個混合的好處。但是，這又回到了當我們看到 HoReCa 和遠離家鄉的人恢復到大流行前水平時的速度。我們還沒有看到 22 年全年，這反映在這些假設中。這就是我們的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Great. I actually wanted to follow up on that point on HoReCa recovery because -- I guess, assuming that HoReCa is still not yet at 2019 levels this year, how would you maybe break that down between outlet openings or outlet closures, like I say is the way to say it, versus foot traffic? Because I -- my thought has been that you've been gaining share within HoReCa by some of your efforts with customers and your enhanced data and service capabilities.

偉大的。我實際上想跟進 HoReCa 復甦的這一點，因為 - 我想，假設今年 HoReCa 仍未達到 2019 年的水平，你將如何在出口開放或出口關閉之間分解它，就像我說的那樣怎麼說呢，與人流量相比？因為我 - 我的想法是，通過您與客戶的一些努力以及增強的數據和服務能力，您在 HoReCa 中獲得了份額。

So I'm just -- I'm surprised and I am trying to gauge how conservative it may or may not be to be thinking about HoReCa is still subdued versus 2019, given that there is strategic investments you've been making in the channel?

所以我只是 - 我很驚訝，我試圖衡量考慮到與 2019 年相比，HoReCa 仍然低迷，考慮到您在渠道中進行的戰略投資，它可能會或可能不會保守?

Yes. Thanks, Lauren. Yes, we're certainly extremely well positioned for the recovery in HoReCa. And we've had some nice customer wins actually throughout 2021. So I think you're absolutely spot on that we're in a good position from a share perspective going into '22. What we're seeing from Australia, New Zealand right across to Europe is that the outlet reopenings are stronger than we originally anticipated.

是的。謝謝，勞倫。是的，我們確實為HoReCa 的複蘇做好了充分準備。實際上，我們在整個 2021 年都贏得了一些不錯的客戶。所以我認為你絕對可以看到，從 22 年的份額來看，我們處於有利位置。我們從澳大利亞、新西蘭到歐洲看到的是，門店的重新開業比我們最初預期的要強。

So I think it obviously differs by market, but we're seeing a lot of outlets reopen. And in some markets, you might have single-digit closures that they just haven't come back for a variety of reasons. So what we are seeing is footfall being the biggest challenge, so -- particularly in cities. I'm not surprised with -- we're still in most of our markets in Europe and Australia, New Zealand, not quite work from home, but come back to the offices, but it's obviously quite slow. So we are seeing, particularly in the bigger cities, outlets reopening, but footfall a bit lower than pre-pandemic levels.

所以我認為這顯然因市場而異，但我們看到很多商店重新開業。在某些市場中，您可能會有個位數的關閉，但由於各種原因他們沒有回來。所以我們看到的是客流量是最大的挑戰，所以——尤其是在城市。我並不感到驚訝——我們仍然在歐洲和澳大利亞、新西蘭的大部分市場，不是完全在家工作，而是回到辦公室，但顯然速度很慢。因此，我們看到，特別是在大城市，門店重新開業，但客流量略低於大流行前的水平。

And I think as we go through the year, I think a lot of companies are now talking about being more proactive about getting their people back to the office 3 days a week, and that will certainly bring back to those city centers a lot more life and energy. But that will take a bit of time. And I suppose that's why we're probably slightly conservative because that journey is starting now. Certainly, the U.K. is leading, and we see other markets following.

我認為隨著這一年的過去，我認為很多公司現在都在談論更加積極主動地讓員工每週 3 天回到辦公室，這肯定會給那些市中心帶來更多的生活和能量。但這需要一點時間。我想這就是為什麼我們可能有點保守，因為這段旅程現在開始了。當然，英國處於領先地位，我們看到其他市場緊隨其後。

But obviously, as we get through the first half of '22, we'll have a better line of sight on the second half of the year in terms of where will that HoReCa away-from-home footfall land. And I suppose from that perspective, we've kind of taken a slightly conservative view, but we can update you as we go through the first half of the year.

但顯然，隨著我們度過 22 年上半年，我們將在下半年有更好的視野，即 HoReCa 的客流量將在哪裡登陸。我想從這個角度來看，我們的觀點有點保守，但我們可以在今年上半年向您更新。

Okay. Great. And then I was just curious on the supply constraints that you called out in Australia. Anything more specific you could share on that front? And is it in particular package size? And do you just think about some of the strategic imperatives you've got in that market in terms of pursuing package diversity, is supply going to be an impediment to that this year? Or is there a progress on that front built into the outlook?

好的。偉大的。然後我只是對你在澳大利亞所說的供應限制感到好奇。您可以在這方面分享更具體的內容嗎？它是特別的包裝尺寸嗎？您是否只考慮過在追求包裝多樣性方面您在該市場中的一些戰略要求，供應是否會成為今年的障礙？或者前景中是否有這方面的進展？

No. I mean our Australian business had a great year last year. I mean if you look at the full year, Peter and the team have done a fantastic job. And certainly, that business comes into '22 with a lot of momentum. Some of the challenges were driven by that success actually.

不，我的意思是我們的澳大利亞業務去年過得很好。我的意思是，如果你看看全年，彼得和團隊做得非常出色。當然，該業務進入 22 年時勢頭強勁。一些挑戰實際上是由這種成功驅動的。

So primarily, in Q4, across all categories in Australia, there was some practical issues around shortages of pallets, believe it or not, and some logistics challenges, but they were very short-term, Lauren. So we -- I think when I look at what the team did, I think we navigated those challenges a lot better than some of our competitors and peer companies. But that was an industry-wide challenge in Australia that we've now got through. And obviously, that's peak season, right? It's summer down there. So that added to that kind of bottleneck. But it wasn't that material in our business and certainly not something that we would see in '22.

因此，主要是，在第四季度，在澳大利亞的所有類別中，無論您信不信，都存在一些圍繞托盤短缺的實際問題，以及一些物流挑戰，但它們是非常短期的，勞倫。所以我們 - 我認為當我看到團隊所做的事情時，我認為我們比我們的一些競爭對手和同行公司更好地應對了這些挑戰。但這在澳大利亞是一個全行業的挑戰，我們現在已經克服了。顯然，那是旺季，對吧？下面是夏天。所以這增加了這種瓶頸。但這在我們的業務中並不是那麼重要，當然也不是我們在 22 年會看到的東西。

Okay. Great. And then final thing, if I can squeeze it in, is just on the pricing -- price/mix outlook. I just wanted to clarify, I think you've said your -- the guidance does not assume second rounds of pricing. And I was curious if France pricing is in the guidance at all or not yet?

好的。偉大的。最後一件事，如果我能擠進去的話，就是定價——價格/組合前景。我只是想澄清一下，我認為您已經說過您的指導不假設第二輪定價。我很好奇法國的定價是否在指導中？

So our current assumption that we've laid out does not include a second round of pricing, but we have not discounted that or put that on the back burner yet, and we'll continue to evaluate the need for that, particularly also as we continue to think about optimizing our promo spend, which I think we've managed that lever quite well during '21 as well. France, obviously, in terms of what we're planning, as I discussed earlier, is in our numbers. And as I said, we expect that we want to continue driving a joint value creation focus with our retailers and brands going forward as well. So that's in -- current.

因此，我們目前提出的假設不包括第二輪定價，但我們還沒有打折或擱置它，我們將繼續評估對此的需求，尤其是當我們繼續考慮優化我們的促銷支出，我認為我們在 21 年也很好地管理了這一槓桿。顯然，正如我之前討論的，就我們的計劃而言，法國是我們的人數。正如我所說，我們希望繼續推動與我們的零售商和品牌共同創造價值。這就是當前的。

And just on that, Lauren. I mean we're -- like every company in this environment, we're doing a lot of scenario planning with our GMs looking at second price increases where and when could they come.

就在這一點上，勞倫。我的意思是我們 - 就像在這種環境中的每家公司一樣，我們正在與我們的 GM 進行大量的情景規劃，以尋找第二次漲價的時間和地點。

So we've been going through that really since last year as we looked into the some of the inflation we had on them. So we'll continue to model that. But obviously, we manage the business, it's a great category. It's a resilient category. We want to make sure that we keep our consumers with us as well. So we'll take that views as we go through the year.

因此，自去年以來，我們一直在經歷這一切，因為我們研究了我們對他們造成的一些通貨膨脹。所以我們將繼續建模。但顯然，我們管理業務，這是一個很棒的類別。這是一個有彈性的類別。我們想確保我們也讓我們的消費者和我們在一起。因此，我們將在這一年中接受這些觀點。

And we are fortunate, as Nik called out, that we have quite a sizable amount of promotional investment that we can look at before we get to the second price increase. So we look at both of those, but I would say with the pragmatic view on the health of the business and the health of the category and our momentum. So more to come on that as we go through the year.

正如 Nik 所說，我們很幸運，在我們進行第二次提價之前，我們可以進行大量的促銷投資。因此，我們會同時考慮這兩個方面，但我會以務實的觀點來看待業務的健康狀況、品類的健康狀況和我們的發展勢頭。隨著我們這一年的到來，還有更多的事情要做。

That sounds great. Now it all seems very measured and balanced in a volatile environment.

聽起來不錯。現在，在動蕩的環境中，這一切似乎都非常有節制和平衡。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Ottenstein from Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein。

Great. And congratulations on navigating through a really tough environment. Just wondering if -- just kind of building on some of the other questions around pricing and taking the other side of the equation. Can you talk a little bit about the state of the consumer in a number of markets. We read about really pretty punishing increases in the cost of fuel and home heating in the U.K.

偉大的。並祝賀你在一個非常艱難的環境中航行。只是想知道是否 - 只是建立在有關定價的其他一些問題上並採取等式的另一面。你能談談一些市場的消費者狀況嗎？我們讀到了英國燃料和家庭取暖成本的大幅上漲。

So I'd like to get a sense of what sort of elasticities you're thinking about, revenue management strategies that you may have now that you didn't have in the past to help recover the input costs given what is happening with the consumer and maybe give us a little bit of a sense of what wage growth looks like in your key markets?

因此，我想了解您正在考慮什麼樣的彈性，您現在可能擁有的收入管理策略，而您過去沒有這些策略來幫助恢復考慮到消費者正在發生的事情的投入成本也許讓我們對你們主要市場的工資增長情況有所了解？

Thanks, Robert. I think a year like this is certainly a year where consumers and customers will remember how we treat them. And I think that's the right mindset to have. And I think we've got to take into account that a lot of our consumers are suffering from inflation pressures across a range of different categories, but also on essentials like, as you said, fuel, energy. So we're very mindful that -- we want to keep our consumers with us for the long term. And I think we're lucky that we've created a number of opportunities through our RGM strategies to navigate our cost pressures without penalizing our consumers. And I think that's critical for our customers. And I think that's why we've laid out a combination of pricing for sure, mix and volume. And I'm kind of wrapping around that, some smart RGM strategies around promo spend, pack sizes, et cetera.

謝謝，羅伯特。我認為這樣的一年肯定是消費者和客戶會記住我們如何對待他們的一年。我認為這是正確的心態。而且我認為我們必須考慮到，我們的許多消費者都在承受各種不同類別的通貨膨脹壓力，而且正如你所說的燃料、能源等必需品。所以我們非常注意——我們希望讓我們的消費者長期與我們在一起。而且我認為我們很幸運，我們通過 RGM 戰略創造了許多機會，以應對我們的成本壓力，而不會懲罰我們的消費者。我認為這對我們的客戶至關重要。我認為這就是為什麼我們制定了定價、組合和數量的組合。而且我有點圍繞這個問題，圍繞促銷支出、包裝尺寸等的一些智能 RGM 策略。

So we want to make sure that we keep our consumer franchise healthy and growing, and it's been growing through the pandemic, particularly in the home market, and it's been growing for a number of years, and I think that's what makes this business great. It's a resilient category, but you've got to make sure as, we are with the Coke company that we maintain affordability in the category for our consumers and brand relevance.

因此，我們希望確保我們的消費者特許經營權保持健康和增長，並且它在大流行中一直在增長，特別是在國內市場，而且它已經增長了很多年，我認為這就是使這項業務變得偉大的原因。這是一個有彈性的類別，但您必須確保，我們與可口可樂公司合作，我們為消費者和品牌相關性保持該類別的可負擔性。

And that's our main priority, while being very conscious of protecting our P&L. So we'll manage both of those dynamics clearly to '22, but we are very mindful of that. It's not just about the price of the coke in Europe, it's -- there's a lot of other things that are going up and they're essential, right? So I think we've got to be -- and we are very mindful of being pragmatic around our pricing strategy and keeping our consumer franchise healthy. It's pretty much standard across all the markets, Robert. I mean we see there's a slight variance above inflationary pressure, particularly driven by energy and fuel is pretty consistent across all of our businesses. We are seeing the category continue to perform. It's a great category. It's had great '21. We gained share in a growing category. We see it growing again this year.

這是我們的主要優先事項，同時非常注意保護我們的損益表。因此，我們將在 22 年清楚地管理這兩種動態，但我們非常注意這一點。這不僅僅是關於歐洲可樂的價格，還有很多其他的東西正在上漲，它們是必不可少的，對吧？所以我認為我們必須——而且我們非常注意在定價策略上保持務實，並保持我們的消費者特許經營權的健康。羅伯特，這幾乎是所有市場的標準。我的意思是，我們看到通脹壓力略有不同，特別是在能源和燃料的推動下，我們所有的業務都非常一致。我們看到該類別繼續表現出色。這是一個很棒的類別。 '21 很棒。我們在不斷增長的類別中獲得了份額。今年我們看到它再次增長。

And I suppose what hurt us in the '20 and '21 particularly as a bottler with the biggest share in away-from-home across the system, obviously, that's something that will come back in 2022. And I suppose that helps us on the mix side as we kind of look at that balance between price/mix and volume. And that's how we're looking at it.

我想在 20 年和 21 年傷害了我們，特別是作為一個在整個系統中在離家服務中佔有最大份額的裝瓶商，顯然，這將在 2022 年回歸。我想這有助於我們混合方面，因為我們有點看價格/混合和數量之間的平衡。這就是我們看待它的方式。

And I suppose I characterize that it's a year to take care of our consumers and our customers, but also take care of our P&L., and then that's what we're focused on.

我想我認為這是照顧我們的消費者和客戶的一年，但也要照顧我們的損益表，這就是我們關注的重點。

And just maybe can you talk a little bit about what's going on with B brands and private label? And whether -- you guys are generally the premium player in all your markets, whether you feel that you are better positioned today to deal with any kind of customer down-trading than maybe you were in the past?

或許你能談談 B 品牌和自有品牌的情況嗎？以及是否——你們通常是所有市場中的高端玩家，你們是否覺得自己今天比過去更有能力應對任何類型的客戶降價交易？

Yes. I mean obviously, the inflationary pressures applied to private label and -- well, to all of our competitors. So -- and obviously, we're keeping a close eye as we always do on what's happening in the market on pricing across all the ranges from our brands right away through to private label.

是的。我的意思很明顯，通脹壓力適用於自有品牌，以及——嗯，適用於我們所有的競爭對手。所以 - 顯然，我們一直密切關注市場上發生的事情，從我們的品牌到自有品牌的所有範圍內的定價。

So we do anticipate, in line with the overall pressures that they'll flow through to private label as well. So -- and I think that maintains, I suppose, our premiumness, but again, at a level that we believe our brands deserve and the consumers will support. And I think, like in any year, if we saw the drifting, we would take actions to look at that, but we haven't seen that yet.

因此，我們確實預計，這與他們將流向自有品牌的整體壓力一致。所以 - 我認為這維持了我們的優質，但同樣，我們相信我們的品牌應該得到消費者的支持。我認為，就像任何一年一樣，如果我們看到漂移，我們會採取行動來看待它，但我們還沒有看到。

Well, it's early in the year. I mean, as we'll see as these cost pressures come through what's happening. But overall, we're seeing prices going up across all of our markets. I mean, that's what we're seeing from private label to other competitors. But let's see, but that's what we're seeing at the moment.

嗯，今年年初。我的意思是，正如我們將看到的，這些成本壓力來自正在發生的事情。但總的來說，我們看到所有市場的價格都在上漲。我的意思是，這就是我們從自有品牌到其他競爭對手所看到的。但是讓我們看看，但這就是我們目前所看到的。

Your next question comes from the line of Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mitch Collett。

My question is, in GB and New Zealand, you've said that revenue is already tracking ahead of 2019. Can you maybe comment on what's driving your success in those 2 markets? And given both will probably have still an away-from-home headwind, would you expect to build on that in those 2 markets in '22 as away-from-home comes back? And is there an opportunity to take what you've done in those markets successfully and move it into some of your other geographies?

我的問題是，在英國和新西蘭，你說收入已經在 2019 年之前跟踪。你能否評論一下是什麼推動了你在這兩個市場取得成功？鑑於兩者可能仍將面臨遠離家鄉的不利因素，您是否希望在 22 年在這兩個市場上再接再厲，因為遠離家鄉的回歸？是否有機會成功地將您在這些市場所做的事情轉移到您的其他一些地區？

Thanks, Mitch. It sounds like you've been listening in one of my management meetings, as I've always put New Zealand and GB out there. I mean, Chris and the team in New Zealand have done a phenomenal job over multiple years. I mean I think that's a business that we've talked about. The Amatil transaction will be super successful if it helps us transform Europe.

謝謝，米奇。聽起來你一直在聽我的一次管理會議，因為我總是把新西蘭和英國放在外面。我的意思是，克里斯和新西蘭的團隊多年來做得非常出色。我的意思是我認為這是我們已經討論過的業務。如果能幫助我們改造歐洲，Amatil 交易將非常成功。

And I think putting New Zealand out there as a benchmark, it's something that we're doing. And while New Zealand has been, obviously, in lockdown from a visitor's perspective, it had a very good year last year overall in terms of the domestic business, and the team down there did a good job managing reopening away-from-home and retail, and that brought the business back ahead of 2019.

我認為把新西蘭作為一個基準，這是我們正在做的事情。雖然從遊客的角度來看，顯然新西蘭一直處於封鎖狀態，但去年在國內業務方面整體表現非常好，那裡的團隊在管理離家重新開放和零售方面做得很好，這使該業務在 2019 年之前重新開始。

I think GB is another success. And I think the team in GB -- we did very well in retail, in online. We did well with our big customers, and I think that certainly supported our growth. And then on top of that, we've seen GB, as I said, lead the way in Europe in terms of reopening. And as GB goes, we see other markets following, to be honest. So maybe a quarter behind because they were a quarter later lifting restrictions. But obviously, [borrowers] was a bit more bullish, and we benefited from that in the second half of last year. and you Can see that in our numbers and particularly in Q4.

我認為GB是另一個成功。我認為英國的團隊——我們在零售和在線方面做得很好。我們在大客戶方面做得很好，我認為這肯定支持了我們的增長。最重要的是，正如我所說，我們已經看到 GB 在重新開放方面在歐洲處於領先地位。隨著 GB 的發展，老實說，我們看到其他市場也在跟進。所以可能落後四分之一，因為他們在四分之一之後解除了限制。但顯然，[借款人] 更加看好，我們在去年下半年從中受益。您可以在我們的數據中看到這一點，尤其是在第四季度。

So we'd expect other markets to follow suit as we go through '22. We haven't seen restrictions being lifted in Belgium, the Netherlands recently, and we see that in our sales already. We see Germany coming out of some restrictions. And then obviously, as we get into Easter key trading period, we've got Ramadan coming up in Indonesia, so we're well set for that.

因此，我們預計在 22 年其他市場也會效仿。我們最近沒有看到比利時和荷蘭取消限制，我們已經在我們的銷售中看到了這一點。我們看到德國擺脫了一些限制。然後很明顯，當我們進入復活節關鍵交易期時，印度尼西亞即將迎來齋月，所以我們已經做好了準備。

And obviously, that's our biggest selling period of the year. So yes, definitely New Zealand, GB are the standouts. And some of the dynamics that have driven that performance are rapid but in other markets. And clearly, that's what we're looking to accelerate.

顯然，這是我們一年中最大的銷售期。所以是的，新西蘭，GB 絕對是佼佼者。推動這種表現的一些動力是快速的，但在其他市場。顯然，這就是我們希望加速的。

And Mitch, just to give you some numbers, if you look at it from an angle of '21 performance relative to '19, away-from-home was down about mid-teens, right? But as Damian said, if you look at both GB and Pacific, GB was down about 4% relative to that mid-teens and then the Pacific, including New Zealand, was down about 1%.

米奇，只是給你一些數字，如果你從 21 年相對於 19 年的表現來看，離家在 19 歲左右下降，對吧？但正如 Damian 所說，如果你同時查看英國和太平洋地區，英國相對於 10 歲中期下降了約 4%，然後包括新西蘭在內的太平洋地區下降了約 1%。

So clearly, a great dynamic of what used to come depending on the speed of that reopening and recovery. So clearly, that should have a positive impact as that happens, but we'll update you as Damian rightfully said, as the year progresses we'll see how that moves.

很明顯，過去的變化很大，取決於重新開放和恢復的速度。很明顯，這應該會產生積極的影響，但正如 Damian 正確所說的那樣，我們會為您提供最新信息，隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這將如何發展。

Really helpful. I do have 1 unrelated follow-up, if that's okay, which is I think you gave the percentage of cost savings you'd achieved in '21, are you able to comment on what percentage you will have baked into the 6% to 9% operating profit guidance for '22?

真的很有幫助。我確實有 1 個不相關的後續行動，如果可以的話，我認為你給出了 21 年實現的成本節約百分比，你能評論一下你將在 6% 到 9 中獲得多少百分比'22 的營業利潤百分比指導？

I knew you were going to ask that. So yes, we achieved just under 65% to date. And I would say we're probably looking at being able to achieve somewhere between 15% to 18% in 2022, which is baked in. We'll update you through the year.

我知道你會問這個。所以是的，到目前為止，我們實現了不到 65%。我想說的是，我們可能正在考慮能夠在 2022 年實現 15% 到 18% 之間的某個目標，這是已經確定的。我們將在全年為您提供最新信息。

Your next question comes from the line of Sanjeet Aujla from Credit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Sanjeet Aujla。

Just a follow-up on the hedging comments. Nik, I think you said in your remarks 1 of the questions that you think there could be a potentially a more favorable window to lock in a great hedging profile. Can you just talk a little bit about what the potential triggers might be -- and is the potential second price increase entirely conditional on further escalation in input costs? Or is there something else that potentially triggers that?

只是對對沖評論的跟進。 Nik，我認為您在評論 1 中提到了您認為可能存在一個更有利的窗口來鎖定一個很好的對沖配置文件。你能談談潛在的觸發因素是什麼嗎？潛在的第二次價格上漲是否完全取決於投入成本的進一步上升？還是有其他可能觸發它的東西？

Thank you. Maybe I'll just take the second and then back to Nik on the hedging. Yes, I think the second price increase is something that we review based on the cost pressures that we see coming through the year. I think that would be the primary trigger for that.

謝謝你。也許我會選擇第二個，然後再回到 Nik 進行對沖。是的，我認為第二次漲價是我們根據我們看到的全年成本壓力來審查的。我認為這將是主要的觸發因素。

So as we look at our hedging position, as we look out towards the end of the year, I mean, that's primarily what would trigger that action. We've got great momentum. We're in a great place for our customers. We've got great brand plans with the Coke Company with Monster.

因此，當我們審視我們的對沖頭寸時，當我們展望年底時，我的意思是，這主要是觸發該行動的原因。我們的勢頭很好。對於我們的客戶來說，我們處於一個很好的位置。我們與可口可樂公司和 Monster 制定了偉大的品牌計劃。

So clearly, that's our priority as we look at Q1, Q2. But we'll keep an eye on that cost pressure. And if that mandates that we need to go back for a second price increase, we always have that option.

很明顯，這是我們在看第一季度和第二季度時的首要任務。但我們會密切關注這種成本壓力。如果這要求我們需要再次提價，我們總是有這樣的選擇。

Yes. And back to your question on hedging, as I said, we're well positioned Q1, probably good into Q2, but we've set triggers based on intelligence from our banking partners from CEPG in terms of what those trends could be for the second half of the year. We've put in those triggers in terms of orders so that we know they can be fulfilled quickly if we move in that direction, and we'll continue to monitor that, right, to be able to lock in a favorable prices versus locking in at current spot today.

是的。回到你關於對沖的問題，正如我所說，我們在第一季度處於有利位置，可能在第二季度表現良好，但我們已經根據來自 CEPG 的銀行合作夥伴的情報設置了觸發器，這些趨勢可能會在第二季度出現半年。我們已經在訂單方面設置了這些觸發器，以便我們知道如果我們朝這個方向前進，它們可以快速完成，我們將繼續監控這一點，正確的，以便能夠鎖定有利的價格而不是鎖定在今天的當前位置。

Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Bonnie Herzog。

All right. Damian and Nik. Maybe a couple of follow-up questions to some previous ones. I guess, first, curious to hear if you guys see upside on your top line, either from stronger-than-expected volume and/or price mix as the year progresses, would you let this broadly flow through to your bottom line?

好的。達米安和尼克。也許是對之前一些問題的一些後續問題。我想，首先，很想知道你們是否看到隨著時間的推移，銷量和/或價格組合強於預期，你們的收入是否有上升空間，你會讓這廣泛地流向你的利潤嗎？

Or would your plan be to reinvest any potential upside into your business? And then maybe a quick 1 for you, Nik, on COGS guidance and visibility. You've touched on this a lot, but -- it's interesting, you didn't give a range, which does suggest your visibility at this point must be pretty good, although it is quite early in the year. So I guess I really just wanted to understand that point and then maybe how conservative your guide on COGS might be?

還是您的計劃是將任何潛在的收益再投資於您的業務？ Nik，關於 COGS 指導和可見性，然後可能會為您提供一個快速的 1。你已經談了很多，但是——有趣的是，你沒有給出一個範圍，這確實表明你在這一點上的能見度一定很好，儘管現在還很早。所以我想我真的只是想了解這一點，然後你的 COGS 指南可能有多保守？

I'm conservative. I don't think that's the case.

我很保守。我認為情況並非如此。

So just on your first comment on it. I mean I think we're fully funded, let's put it that way as we look from the capital side, as Nik called, from a capacity, technology, digital, people. So we've got a great investment plan for '22. So I don't really see the need for more coming in '22.

因此，就您對它的第一條評論而言。我的意思是我認為我們的資金充足，讓我們從資本方面來看，正如 Nik 所說，從能力、技術、數字和人員來看。所以我們為 22 年制定了一個很棒的投資計劃。所以我真的不認為 22 年需要更多。

I mean clearly, we look as we go through the year on what we look at '23, but I think, at the moment, we feel pretty good about our investment lineup, both with our brand partners with KO with Monster, in particular. And from our perspective, against that revenue guidance that we've given today. So we'll update during the year, but it's not something that we see happening in 2022 to be almost.

我的意思很清楚，我們在 23 年的情況下看待這一年，但我認為，目前，我們對我們的投資陣容感覺很好，尤其是與我們的品牌合作夥伴 KO 和 Monster。從我們的角度來看，與我們今天給出的收入指導相反。因此，我們將在年內進行更新，但這並不是我們認為 2022 年會發生的事情。

Yes. So definitely drop to the bottom line as that top line continues to recover, which we remain very mindful of. On the hedging question, yes, I could have provided a range, but as I indicated, when you're looking at it from an angle of where we're sitting today and where we would have typically gone in around that circa 80% coverage, then we'd be at kind of that top end of that 5% versus the 4% to 5% that we provided. So clearly, if spot prices do not abate and continue to be where they are today, then you're seeing an impact for that circa 20%, which could add probably somewhere between 0.5 point to 70 bps in terms of that guidance, but we'll update you as we go along. It's probably too early to give you a clear indication on that.

是的。因此，隨著該頂線繼續恢復，肯定會跌至底線，我們仍然非常注意這一點。關於對沖問題，是的，我本可以提供一個範圍，但正如我所指出的，當你從我們今天所處的位置以及我們通常會在大約 80% 覆蓋率附近的角度來看它時，那麼我們將處於 5% 與我們提供的 4% 到 5% 的高端。很明顯，如果現貨價格沒有減弱並繼續保持今天的水平，那麼您會看到大約 20% 的影響，就該指導而言，這可能會增加 0.5 點至 70 個基點，但我們會在我們進行時更新您。現在給你一個明確的指示可能還為時過早。

Okay. Fair enough.

好的。很公平。

Back to the point, that's also, Bonnie, that's probably something that would trigger what we need to do in terms as we look at promo spend optimization pricing, et cetera, et cetera.

回到正題，邦妮，這可能會觸發我們在查看促銷支出優化定價等方面需要做的事情。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wilmer from ABN ODDO..

您的下一個問題來自 ABN ODDO 的 Eric Wilmer。

I was wondering if the prospects of rising interest rates could have consequences for your bond refinancing strategy and agenda, especially in a scenario where interest rates reach a certain level that they may start to materially impact your EPS, for example, through earlier refinancings or strategy focused on different maturities, et cetera.

我想知道利率上升的前景是否會對您的債券再融資策略和議程產生影響，尤其是在利率達到一定水平的情況下，它們可能開始對您的每股收益產生重大影響，例如，通過早期的再融資或戰略專注於不同的期限等。

So I guess I'm wondering how should we look at your strategy to protect EPS from a bond refinancing perspective?

所以我想我想知道我們應該如何看待您從債券再融資的角度保護每股收益的策略？

Yes. Great question, Eric. So we continue to assess various opportunities, both from an angle of our fixed versus floating portfolio as well as opportunities that we see a window to look at extending our maturity profile. I think we're in a great position right now from an angle of debt maturities. We actually don't have to go out to market really until at the earliest mid- to late 2023. And that also would be more around refinancing given the fact that we actually are looking to continue to deleverage and our cash flows are strong.

是的。好問題，埃里克。因此，我們將繼續評估各種機會，無論是從我們的固定投資組合還是浮動投資組合的角度，以及我們看到一個窗口來擴展我們的成熟度概況的機會。我認為從債務到期的角度來看，我們現在處於一個很好的位置。實際上，我們最早要到 2023 年中後期才能真正進入市場。鑑於我們實際上正在尋求繼續去槓桿化並且我們的現金流強勁，這也將更多地涉及再融資。

So both those are very much on our agenda from an angle of, is there an opportunity in the shorter term to move towards some floating as well as lengthening maturity. But I think, right now, as we look at that outlook, I would actually say you'll continue to see with the deleveraging and our current portfolio that interest line continues to come down and actually help us on the EPS perspective.

因此，從以下角度來看，這兩個問題都非常重要，是否有機會在短期內實現一些浮動和延長成熟度。但我認為，現在，當我們審視這種前景時，我實際上會說你會繼續看到去槓桿化和我們目前的投資組合，利息線繼續下降，實際上在每股收益方面對我們有所幫助。

Our last question for today comes from the line of Carlos Laboy from HSBC.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Carlos Laboy。

I'm going to take the hook, I think Nik mentioned that regarding revenue growth management and dealing with inflation, you probably have a few more tools to play with. I was hoping you could expand on that. And -- it may be related to that question, maybe not. But can you link for us revenue growth management to how you're reviewing package evolution and ESG?

我要上鉤了，我認為 Nik 提到關於收入增長管理和應對通貨膨脹，你可能還有更多工具可以使用。我希望你能對此進行擴展。而且——它可能與那個問題有關，也可能不是。但是，您能否將我們的收入增長管理與您如何審查軟件包演變和 ESG 聯繫起來？

And the reason I'm asking is, given Coke's new global refillable targets, how is your focus maybe changing or evolving regarding how you use refillable package sets to supplement what you're doing on revenue growth management?

我要問的原因是，鑑於可口可樂新的全球可再灌裝目標，您的關注點可能如何改變或演變，即您如何使用可再灌裝包裝套裝來補充您在收入增長管理方面所做的工作？

Thanks, Carlos. And, yes. On revenue growth management broadly, I think what you've seen in our numbers on a net revenue per case over '19 gives us confidence that we're certainly in the right path in terms of leveraging a number of tools, but ones that we've talked before around pack size, premiumization of some of our brands, better promo analytics so we can spend our promo investments smarter with our customers.

謝謝，卡洛斯。是的。在廣義上的收入增長管理方面，我認為您在我們的數據中看到的 19 年每個案例的淨收入讓我們相信，在利用多種工具方面，我們肯定走在正確的道路上，但我們之前已經討論過包裝尺寸、我們的一些品牌的高端化、更好的促銷分析，這樣我們就可以更明智地與客戶一起使用我們的促銷投資。

So we're getting much better at just understanding what really works on promo, what drives penetration, share and value for us and our customers. So all of those tools will become even more relevant as we get into '22, given some of the headwinds we have that we've talked about today. So I think we're well placed. And it's evolving, right? We're nowhere near where I think we'll be by the end of '22 or into '23. But certainly, it's supporting our business, and we've seen that in our NSR per case.

因此，我們在了解促銷活動的真正作用、推動滲透、分享和對我們和我們客戶的價值方面做得更好。因此，考慮到我們今天談到的一些不利因素，隨著我們進入 22 世紀，所有這些工具將變得更加相關。所以我認為我們處於有利位置。它正在發展，對吧？我們離我認為到 22 年底或 23 年的目標還很遠。但可以肯定的是，它支持我們的業務，我們已經在每個案例的 NSR 中看到了這一點。

And so more to come on that. And we're also looking at the refillable opportunity. I mean we have a refillable big part of our business as refillable already across CCEP. So you're looking at the high teens. So when you look at the targets that the Coca-Cola Company laid out clearly, we very much support that. And we see it as an opportunity to obviously meet our ESG goals, particularly carbon reduction.

還有更多的事情要做。我們也在尋找可再填充的機會。我的意思是，我們的業務中有很大一部分是可再填充的，因為 CCEP 已經可以再填充了。所以你正在尋找高青少年。因此，當您查看可口可樂公司明確制定的目標時，我們非常支持這一點。我們認為這是一個明顯實現我們的 ESG 目標的機會，尤其是碳減排目標。

So it's going to play a big role in our portfolio to achieve that goal. But we also see it as a way to create value. So I think, as you know, in a lot of markets, refillable has been used as an affordability strategy. In Europe, it tends to be more premium and HoReCa, glass positioning. So it can also support your ESG and your net revenue goals. And I think that's what we're looking at is, how do we really play refillable in that space?

因此，它將在我們的投資組合中發揮重要作用，以實現這一目標。但我們也將其視為創造價值的一種方式。所以我認為，如你所知，在許多市場中，可再填充已被用作一種負擔能力策略。在歐洲，它往往更偏向於高檔和HoReCa，玻璃定位。因此，它還可以支持您的 ESG 和您的淨收入目標。我認為這就是我們所關注的，我們如何在那個空間真正發揮可再填充的作用？

And then also in Indonesia, clearly, we will look at it from an affordability perspective and can that drive more brand relevance by getting to some price points potentially that consumers are happier to pay in Indonesia. So Indonesia is probably a more traditional deal refillable.

然後在印度尼西亞，顯然，我們將從可負擔性的角度來看待它，並且可以通過達到消費者更願意在印度尼西亞支付的某些價格點來提高品牌相關性。所以印度尼西亞可能是一個更傳統的可補充交易。

Certainly, Europe, we see it play a role in a more RGM lens, let's put it that way. And it's something that we're exploring. We're working with suppliers around refillable technology. I think 1 of the big benefits of putting a target, I'd like the Coca-Cola Company did, I think it will allow us to engage even more with suppliers and getting to what I call 2.0 refillable technology. And for those of us who have been in the system a while or in the industry a while, the refillable technology hasn't really moved on compared to the rest of the supply chain. And I see that as a big opportunity. And I think putting out that target gives suppliers confidence that refillable is going to be part of the system's future and should encourage them to work with us to develop better technology in that space, which over time will have the carbon footprint but also should help margins. So a lot going on in that space, Carlos.

當然，歐洲，我們看到它在 RGM 鏡頭中發揮作用，讓我們這麼說吧。這是我們正在探索的東西。我們正在與供應商合作圍繞可再填充技術。我認為設定目標的一大好處是，我希望可口可樂公司做到這一點，我認為這將使我們能夠與供應商進行更多的接觸，並獲得我所說的 2.0 可再填充技術。對於我們這些已經在系統中或行業中一段時間的人來說，與供應鏈的其他部分相比，可再填充技術並沒有真正發展。我認為這是一個巨大的機會。而且我認為提出這個目標讓供應商相信可再填充將成為系統未來的一部分，並且應該鼓勵他們與我們合作在該領域開發更好的技術，隨著時間的推移，這將產生碳足跡，但也應該有助於提高利潤率.卡洛斯，這個領域發生了很多事情。

I would now like to hand the conference back over to Damian Gammell for his closing remarks. Damian, please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交還給 Damian Gammell 做閉幕詞。達米安，請繼續。

Thank you. Again, a big thank you to everybody joining us this morning and this afternoon. Just to recap. We had really strong performance in 2021. And I just want to reiterate my thanks to our customers, but also clearly to all of my colleagues at CCEP for a terrific year in '21 and their ongoing commitment and passion for our business. So that gives us a great platform to build off, and we're very well placed for 2022. As we've talked about today, we are dealing with the near-term inflation pressures. We've got lots of strategies and tools in place to allow us to navigate that. And clearly, we'll continue to update you as we go through 2022.

謝謝你。再次，非常感謝今天上午和下午加入我們的每個人。只是回顧一下。我們在 2021 年的表現非常出色。我只想再次感謝我們的客戶，同時也明確感謝我在 CCEP 的所有同事在 21 年的出色表現，以及他們對我們業務的持續承諾和熱情。因此，這為我們提供了一個很好的發展平台，我們為 2022 年做好了準備。正如我們今天所談到的，我們正在應對近期的通脹壓力。我們有很多策略和工具可以讓我們導航。顯然，我們將在 2022 年繼續為您提供最新信息。

Fundamentally, it's a great category. It's a great business. It's growing. It's resilient. It's creating a lot of value for our customers and for our shareholders, and we see that continuing through '22 and beyond.

從根本上說，這是一個很棒的類別。這是一項偉大的事業。它正在增長。它有彈性。它為我們的客戶和股東創造了很多價值，我們認為這種情況會持續到 22 年及以後。

And clearly, we'll get the benefit of a stronger away-from-home business in '22, and we're really excited about that after the last couple of years. It is all about our consumers and our customers. So we've got a really exciting portfolio of brand plans, particularly with the Coca-Cola Company and Monster.

很明顯，我們將在 22 年從更強大的離家業務中受益，在過去的幾年之後，我們對此感到非常興奮。這一切都與我們的消費者和我們的客戶有關。所以我們有一個非常令人興奮的品牌計劃組合，特別是與可口可樂公司和 Monster 的合作。

So a lot of innovation, a lot of excitement coming through our business. And clearly, we'll continue our journey to be a smarter bottler and the most sustainable bottlers. So as Nik laid out, we'll continue to invest in our business, to be focused around our people, our digital journey, our brands and obviously, our sustainability agenda, which remains core to everything we do at CCEP. So thank you, and again, I look forward to talking to you later in 2022, and have a great day, everybody. Thank you.

因此，我們的業務帶來了很多創新和興奮。顯然，我們將繼續我們的旅程，成為更智能的裝瓶商和最可持續的裝瓶商。因此，正如 Nik 所說，我們將繼續投資於我們的業務，專注於我們的員工、我們的數字化旅程、我們的品牌，當然還有我們的可持續發展議程，這仍然是我們在 CCEP 所做的一切的核心。所以，謝謝你們，我期待在 2022 年晚些時候與你們交談，祝大家度過美好的一天。謝謝你。

That concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們都可以斷開連接。