世邦魏理仕集團 (CBRE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 CBRE earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

問候並歡迎參加 2024 年 CBRE 第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Shandy Luthra. Thank you, you may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹您的主持人 Shandy Luthra。謝謝您，您可以開始了。

Good morning, everyone and welcome to CBRE's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Earlier today, we posted a presentation deck on our website that you can use to follow along with a prepared remarks and an excel file that contains additional supplemental materials.

大家早安，歡迎參加世邦魏理仕 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天早些時候，我們在網站上發布了一個演示文稿，您可以使用它來跟進準備好的發言以及包含其他補充資料的 Excel 文件。

Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, including without limitations, statements concerning our business outlook, our business plans and capital allocation strategy, and our earnings and cash flow outlook. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those projected.

今天的演示包含前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於有關我們的業務前景、我們的業務計劃和資本配置策略以及我們的盈利和現金流前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述是對未來事件的預測、預期或其他陳述。這些聲明涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果和趨勢與預測有重大差異。

For a full discussion of the risks and other factors that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to this morning's earnings release and our SEC filings. We have provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on our call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures together with explanations of these measures in our presentation deck appendix.

有關可能影響這些前瞻性陳述的風險和其他因素的全面討論，請參閱今天上午的收益報告和我們的美國證券交易委員會文件。我們在簡報附錄中提供了電話會議上討論的非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表，以及對這些指標的解釋。

Also, in our press release, we have provided historical non-GAAP financial information for the new segments which we will begin reporting with Q1 2025 results. We will provide more details, including historical quarterly financial information by lines of business based on the new segments prior to releasing our Q1 results.

此外，在我們的新聞稿中，我們提供了新部門的歷史非 GAAP 財務信息，我們將從 2025 年第一季度的業績開始報告。在發布第一季業績之前，我們將提供更多詳細信息，包括基於新部門按業務線劃分的歷史季度財務信息。

I'm joined on today's call by Bob Sulentic, our Chair and CEO; and Emma Giamartino, our Chief Financial Officer. Throughout their remarks, when Bob and Emma cite financial performance relative to expectations, they are referring to actual results against the outlook we provided on our Q3 2024, earnings call in October, unless otherwise noted.

今天的電話會議與我一起參加的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Bob Sulentic；以及我們的財務長 Emma Giamartino。在整個演講過程中，當 Bob 和 Emma 提到相對於預期的財務表現時，他們指的是與我們在 10 月的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議上提供的展望相比的實際結果，除非另有說明。

Also, as a reminder, our resilient businesses include facilities management, project management, property management, loan servicing, evaluation, and recurring investment management fees. Our transactional businesses comprise of property sales, leasing, mortgage origination, carried interest and incentive fees in the investment management business, and development fees. Finally, unless otherwise noted, whenever we cite growth rates, we are referring to the percentage change versus the 2023 fourth quarter in US dollars.

另外，需要提醒的是，我們的彈性業務包括設施管理、專案管理、物業管理、貸款服務、評估和經常性投資管理費。我們的交易業務包括房地產銷售、租賃、抵押貸款發放、投資管理業務中的附帶權益和激勵費用以及開發費用。最後，除非另有說明，每當我們引用成長率時，我們指的是相對於 2023 年第四季的美元百分比變化。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給鮑伯。

Thank you, Shandy, and good morning, everyone. Q4 of 2024 was CBRE's best quarter ever for core earnings and free cash flow with broad strength across our business. We also made significant progress in executing our strategy, positioning the company to continue to deliver double-digit earnings growth on an enduring basis. First, we acquired Industrious, the premium flex workplace provider.

謝謝你，Shandy，大家早安。2024 年第四季是世邦魏理仕核心獲利和自由現金流表現最好的一個季度，整個業務表現強勁。我們在執行策略方面也取得了重大進展，使公司能夠繼續長期實現兩位數的獲利成長。首先，我們收購了優質彈性工作場所提供者 Industrious。

This advances our ability to meet office occupier and landlord demand for flexibility and an elevated experience. The industrious transaction also became the catalyst for us to consolidate all our building management businesses into one segment called building operations and Experience. This move allows us to build expertise and scale advantage across many areas that area common to the operation of buildings.

這提高了我們滿足辦公室佔用者和房東對靈活性和高級體驗的需求的能力。這項努力的交易也成為我們將所有樓宇管理業務整合為「樓宇營運與體驗」一個部門的催化劑。此舉使我們能夠在建築運營的許多常見領域建立專業知識和規模優勢。

Jamie Hadari, industrious CEO who has exceptional strategic, operational, and entrepreneurial skills, is leading this segment as its CEO. We also completed the combination of CBRE project management with Turner & Townsend. This creates a large, uniquely positioned program and project management business with multiple avenues for resilient revenue growth in areas like infrastructure, energy and data centers.

傑米·哈達裡 (Jamie Hadari) 是一位勤奮的首席執行官，擁有卓越的策略、營運和創業技能，他擔任該部門的首席執行官。我們也完成了世邦魏理仕專案管理與Turner & Townsend的合併。這將創建一個龐大且具有獨特定位的專案和專案管理業務，並在基礎設施、能源和資料中心等領域提供多種途徑實現收入的彈性成長。

Finally, we took two additional steps to upgrade our senior leadership team. First, we gave our COO Vikram Kohli, whose capabilities are evident in the major impact he had on our business in 2024, additional responsibility as CEO of our advisory business. Second, we named Adam Gallistel, who will join Seaberry in April, and Andy Glanzman as co-CEOs of our investment management business.

最後，我們採取了另外兩個措施來升級我們的高階領導團隊。首先，我們任命首席營運官維克拉姆·科利 (Vikram Kohli) 為諮詢業務的首席執行官，他的能力在 2024 年對我們業務的重大影響中得到了充分體現。其次，我們任命 Adam Gallistel（將於 4 月加入 Seaberry）和 Andy Glanzman 為我們投資管理業務的聯合執行長。

As leader of GIC's America's Business, Adam Gallistel an exceptional track record and prominent industry profile, while Andy has proven to be a strong operational leader who has overseen CBRE Investment Management's strategic evolution. With all these moves in mind, we have reorganized the company into four business segments.

作為 GIC 美國業務的領導者，Adam Gallistel 擁有卓越的業績記錄和突出的行業形象，而 Andy 已被證明是一位強大的營運領導者，他監督了 CBRE 投資管理的策略演變。考慮到所有這些舉措，我們將公司重組為四個業務部門。

Two of the segments, building operations and experience and project management are entirely comprised of resilient businesses. Together, they generated $1.4 billion of SOP in 2024, and they are growing organically at a double-digit rate. In both segments, we have tremendous opportunities to scale our position in huge, fragmented, and under penetrated markets.

其中兩個部門，建築運營和體驗以及專案管理完全由彈性業務組成。2024 年，他們共創造了 14 億美元的 SOP，並且以兩位數的速度有機成長。在這兩個領域，我們都擁有巨大的機會來擴大我們在龐大、分散且滲透率較低的市場中的地位。

Our advisory segment, which includes leasing, capital markets, valuations, and loan servicing, is a cornerstone of our business. It is responsible for producing large profits, high margins, strong cash flow conversion, and abundant data and market intelligence that is valuable across our company. Our real estate investment segment, which includes our investment management and development businesses is underappreciated.

我們的顧問部門包括租賃、資本市場、估價和貸款服務，是我們業務的基石。它負責產生對整個公司來說都很有價值的巨額利潤、高利潤率、強勁的現金流轉換以及豐富的數據和市場情報。我們的房地產投資部門（包括投資管理和開發業務）被低估了。

This segment has significant embedded profits, and we expect it to become one of the leading contributors to our long-term growth. Additionally, it is an ongoing source of compelling investment opportunities for CBRE. Our confidence in CBRE's future has never been higher, as evidenced by our considerable share repurchases since the end of the third quarter. Despite the strong appreciation of our shares over the last year, we believe the market is undervaluing our business relative to both its growth profile and dramatically enhanced resiliency.

該部門具有可觀的內含利潤，我們預計它將成為我們長期成長的主要貢獻者之一。此外，它也是世邦魏理仕持續提供引人注目的投資機會的來源。我們對世邦魏理仕的未來充滿信心，自第三季末以來我們大量的股票回購就證明了這一點。儘管我們的股價在過去一年大幅上漲，但我們認為市場低估了我們的業務相對於其成長狀況和大幅增強的彈性。

Now, Emma, will discuss the quarter's highlights and our outlook for 2025. Emma.

現在，艾瑪將討論本季的亮點以及我們對 2025 年的展望。艾瑪。

Thank you, Bob. We exceeded expectations with a record quarter across almost every metric. Our resilient businesses, which are facilities management, property management, project management, loan servicing, valuations, and recurring investment management fees, grew net revenue 16% in the quarter and 14% for the year while delivering operating leverage.

謝謝你，鮑伯。我們幾乎所有指標都創下了新高，超出了預期。我們的彈性業務包括設施管理、物業管理、專案管理、貸款服務、估值和經常性投資管理費，這些業務在本季度的淨收入增長了 16%，全年增長了 14%，同時實現了營運槓桿。

Resilient businesses contributed nearly 60% of our total SOP for the year, essentially matching 2023. This relative contribution by our resilient businesses is notable in a year when our transaction revenue grew considerably, yet capital markets activity is still well below peak levels. In our advisory segment, results were driven by record leasing revenue and a continued rebound in capital markets. Globally, leasing revenue grew 15%, with notable strength in APEC in the Americas.

韌性業務貢獻了我們全年總 SOP 的近 60%，基本上與 2023 年持平。在我們的交易收入大幅成長但資本市場活動仍遠低於高峰水準的一年裡，我們的彈性業務的相對貢獻是顯著的。在我們的諮詢部門，業績受到創紀錄的租賃收入和資本市場的持續反彈的推動。全球範圍內，租賃收入成長了15%，美洲地區的APEC表現特別突出。

US office leasing delivered 28% revenue growth, office occupiers are increasingly comfortable making long-term decisions, give an improved return to office momentum and a healthy economic outlook. The durability of office leasing growth was a prominent question as recently as October when we last reported earnings. While New York led most of the office leasing and recovery in 2024, other markets accelerated substantially in the fourth quarter.

美國辦公室租賃收入成長28%，辦公室佔用者越來越願意做出長期決策，辦公室報酬率提高，經濟前景健康。就在我們去年 10 月報告收益時，辦公室租賃成長的持久性還是一個突出的問題。雖然紐約引領了 2024 年大部分辦公室租賃和復甦，但其他市場在第四季也大幅加速。

Gateway Markets comprised of New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, DC, and Boston, grew approximately 30% in aggregate. Other large markets like Dallas, Atlanta, and Seattle grew even faster, and certain smaller Midwest markets, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis, picked up considerably. This gives us confidence that office leasing will continue to increase as activity has spread broadly.

由紐約、舊金山、洛杉磯、芝加哥、華盛頓特區和波士頓組成的門戶市場整體成長了約 30%。達拉斯、亞特蘭大和西雅圖等其他大型市場成長速度更快，而克利夫蘭、匹茲堡和明尼阿波利斯等某些較小的中西部市場也大幅成長。這使我們相信，隨著活動的廣泛開展，辦公室租賃將繼續增加。

Retail leasing also exhibited solid growth, while industrial leasing was essentially flat. Turning to global property sales, revenue growth accelerated to 35%. Growth is strong across all asset classes globally, with the notable increase in office sales in the US and EMEA, albeit off a low base of activity. Our mortgage origination business was up 37%, led by a 76% increase in origination fees, partly offset by lower escrow income.

零售租賃也呈現穩健的成長，而工業租賃基本上持平。轉向全球房地產銷售，營收成長加速至35%。全球所有資產類別均呈現強勁成長勢頭，其中美國、歐洲、中東和非洲地區的辦公室銷售額顯著增長，儘管活動基數較低。我們的抵押貸款發放業務成長了 37%，其中發放費增加了 76%，但託管收入的下降部分抵消了這一增長。

We saw a strong pick up in loan origination volume across financing sources, most notably from the GSEs and banks. While acquisition financing is increasing, refinancing continued to lead the recovery, making up almost 60% of the total volume for the quarter. Overall, advisory SOP rose 34% with an improved margin on that revenue. In the GWS segment, net revenue grew 18%.

我們看到各融資來源的貸款發放量強勁成長，最明顯的是政府支持企業和銀行的貸款發放量。雖然收購融資正在增加，但再融資繼續引領復甦，佔本季總額的近 60%。整體而言，諮詢 SOP 成長了 34%，營收利潤率也有所提高。在 GWS 部門，淨收入成長了 18%。

Facilities management net revenue increased to 24% with broad-based strength in both the enterprise and local businesses. We are seeing a good balance of new clients and expansions across enterprise sectors, especially technology, industrial data centers, and healthcare. Local revenue growth was led by the UK and the Americas. The Americas has emerged as the local business's second largest region, up from the fourth largest in 2023.

設施管理淨收入成長至 24%，企業和本地業務均表現出色。我們看到企業領域（尤其是技術、工業資料中心和醫療保健）的新客戶和擴張之間取得了良好的平衡。當地收入成長主要由英國和美洲推動。美洲已成為當地企業的第二大地區，而 2023 年該地區也為第四大地區。

This is a direct result of executing our strategy to increase share in the US, a market that is still barely penetrated. Our project management business saw solid net revenue increase with particular strengths in North America and the UK, led by real estate and infrastructure. For the full year 2024, project management net revenue grew 10%, with operating leverage driving faster SOP growth.

這是我們實施增加美國市場份額策略的直接結果，美國市場目前還未被充分開發。我們的專案管理業務淨收入穩定成長，尤其在北美和英國表現強勁，以房地產和基礎設施為主導。2024年全年，專案管理淨收入成長10%，營運槓桿推動SOP更快成長。

This growth was dominated by Turner & Townsend, which achieved 19% revenue growth for the year, supporting our view that the aggregate project management business will achieve accelerated growth when combined. The GWS, SOP margin improved for the full year, reflecting our cost efforts and focused on contract profitability.

這一成長主要由 Turner & Townsend 主導，該公司全年收入成長了 19%，這支持了我們的觀點，即整體專案管理業務合併後將實現加速成長。全年 GWS、SOP 利潤率有所提高，反映了我們在成本控制方面的努力以及對合約獲利能力的關注。

In our RAI segment, SOP increased to $150 million in Q4, led by our development business. As expected, we had significant monetization's in the quarter, including several data center development sites. This is one of our development business' strongest quarters and reflects our distinct capabilities as a land acquirer and developer, as well as our proactive decision to invest in areas benefiting from secular tolling when others were on the sidelines.

在我們的 RAI 部門，由於開發業務的推動，SOP 在第四季度增加至 1.5 億美元。正如預期的那樣，我們在本季度實現了顯著的貨幣化，其中包括幾個資料中心開發站點。這是我們開發業務表現最強勁的一個季度，反映了我們作為土地收購者和開發商的獨特能力，也反映了我們在其他人觀望時主動決定投資於受益於長期收費的地區的決定。

Within our investment management business, Q4 operating profit declined, partly driven by a ramp up of costs in anticipation of increased capital raising. We raised over $10 billion in 2024, with half of it coming in the fourth quarter. AUM ended 2024 at $146 billion essentially flat for the year. Market sentiment continues to improve, with many investors positioning their portfolios to capture opportunities in the latter half of 2025.

在我們的投資管理業務中，第四季的營業利潤下降，部分原因是預期增加融資導致成本增加。我們在 2024 年籌集了超過 100 億美元，其中一半是在第四季度籌集的。截至 2024 年，AUM 為 1,460 億美元，與當年基本持平。市場情緒持續改善，許多投資者調整投資組合，以抓住 2025 年下半年的機會。

Before turning to our outlook, I'll comment on cash flow and capital allocation. Free cash flow exceeded expectations, increasing to more than $1.5 billion for the year, and free cash flow conversion reached almost 100%, surpassing our 75% to 85% target range. We deployed approximately $2 billion of capital in 2024 across M&A, real estate, co-investment, and share repurchases.

在談到我們的展望之前，我將對現金流和資本配置發表評論。自由現金流超出預期，全年增加至 15 億美元以上，自由現金流轉換率幾乎達到 100%，超過了我們 75% 至 85% 的目標範圍。2024 年，我們在併購、房地產、共同投資和股票回購領域投入了約 20 億美元的資金。

This is in line with our strategy to invest in resilient businesses that augment CBRE's gross profile, expand our total addressable market and generate high risk adjusted returns. Besides several notable M&A transactions, we capitalized 29 development projects for the year, including 12 and Q4. Our significant efforts to build the pipeline over the past few years, while many investors were on the sidelines, has positioned our development business to break ground on more than 50 projects in 2025, almost double the number in 2024.

這符合我們投資於有韌性企業的策略，這些企業可以增強世邦魏理仕的整體形象，擴大我們的整體潛在市場，並產生高風險調整後的回報。除了幾項值得注意的併購交易外，我們今年還資本化了 29 個開發項目，其中包括 12 個和 Q4。過去幾年，在許多投資者袖手旁觀的情況下，我們付出了巨大努力來建設項目，這使我們的開發業務能夠在 2025 年開工超過 50 個項目，幾乎是 2024 年的兩倍。

We estimate that we have more than $900 million of embedded net profits in our development in process portfolio and pipeline as we capitalize a second large portfolio of development assets in the 4th quarter, this time focused on industrial assets. Our in process and pipeline portfolio currently stands at more than $32 billion with outstanding balance sheet equity co-investment of approximately $800 million.

我們估計，隨著我們在第四季度利用第二大開發資產組合（這次的重點是工業資產），我們在流程組合和管道開發中的嵌入淨利潤超過 9 億美元。目前，我們在製品和在研產品組合總額已超過 320 億美元，其中未償還資產負債表股權共同投資約 8 億美元。

And as Bob, mentioned, we also continue to see significant unrecognized value in CBRE shares. This led us to repurchase more than $800 million worth of shares since the end of the third quarter. We have high conviction in our growth prospects and believe our ability to consistently generate double-digit organic earnings growth justifies the premium through cycle multiple.

正如鮑伯所提到的，我們也繼續看到世邦魏理仕股票中存在大量未被確認的價值。這導致我們自第三季末以來回購了價值超過8億美元的股票。我們對我們的成長前景充滿信心，並相信我們持續實現兩位數有機獲利成長的能力證明了周期倍數的溢價是合理的。

Looking ahead, we expect another year of strong free cash flow generation, approximating last year's total of $1.5 billion. We anticipate free cash flow conversion within our 75% to 85% target range this year as a benefit from bonus timing we saw in 2024 reverses. Absent material M&A, we expect to end the year with net leverage below one term, but are willing to lever up to two terms for the right M&A opportunities.

展望未來，我們預計今年的自由現金流將保持強勁，接近去年的 15 億美元總額。我們預計今年的自由現金流轉換率將在 75% 至 85% 的目標範圍內，這得益於我們在 2024 年逆轉所看到的獎金時機。在沒有重大併購的情況下，我們預計今年年底的淨槓桿率將低於一個期限，但為了獲得合適的併購機會，我們願意將槓桿率提高到兩個期限。

Turning to our outlook, we expect to easily set a new peak in 2025, with core EPS projected to be in the range of $5.80 to $6.10. This would represent more than 16% growth at the middle of the range, supported by mid-teens SOP growth across our resilient lines of business, momentum in leasing, and a continued rebound in capital markets. It is notable that we're expecting this level of earnings when transaction activity is more muted than in other cyclical recoveries.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年核心每股盈餘將輕鬆創下新高，預計在 5.80 美元至 6.10 美元之間。這將代表中間範圍超過 16% 的成長率，這得益於我們各個有彈性的業務線的中等水平的 SOP 成長、租賃的勢頭以及資本市場的持續反彈。值得注意的是，當交易活動比其他週期性復甦更低迷時，我們預期收益將達到這一水準。

We're again guiding to a wide range this year because of uncertainties around the level of currency headwinds and the trajectory of interest rates. We've embedded a currency translation headwind of 1% to 2% in our consolidated outlook. Absent this headwind, expected core EPS growth would be in the high teens. Turning to our segments, we are providing guidance under our new as well as the old segment structure as shown on slide 8, to help investors transition their coverage.

由於貨幣逆風水準和利率軌跡存在不確定性，我們今年再次將預期範圍擴大。我們在綜合展望中考慮了 1% 至 2% 的貨幣換算逆風。如果沒有這個不利因素，預計核心每股盈餘成長率將達到百分之十幾。談到我們的分部，我們將根據新的和舊的分部結構提供指導（如幻燈片 8 所示），以幫助投資者轉變他們的覆蓋範圍。

Note that all percentage growth rate estimates for the segments are in local currency. In our advisory segment, we expect low to mid-teens SOP growth driven by solid leasing revenue growth and a steady capital markets recovery, both of which will underpin margin expansion. In our building operations and experience segment, we expect above trend mid-teens revenue growth, supported by locals further expansion in the US and a full year contribution from industrious.

請注意，所有分部的百分比成長率估計都是以當地貨幣計算的。在我們的顧問部門，我們預計，在穩健的租賃收入成長和資本市場穩步復甦的推動下，SOP 將實現低至中等幅度的成長，這兩者都將支撐利潤率的擴大。在我們的建築營運和體驗部門，我們預計收入成長率將高於趨勢的中十幾歲，這得益於當地公司在美國進一步擴張以及勤奮的全年貢獻。

We anticipate continued operating leverage resulting from 2024 cost initiatives which will drive high teens SOP growth. In project management, we foresee significant opportunities in the US and UK across infrastructure and traditional real estate. Combining the Turner & Townsend and CBE project management businesses requires a complex integration. As such, in the first year, we are anticipating strong but slightly below trend SOP growth in the low to mid-teens.

我們預計，2024 年成本計畫將帶來持續的營運槓桿，從而推動 SOP 實現高成長。在專案管理方面，我們預見美國和英國在基礎設施和傳統房地產領域將面臨巨大的機會。合併 Turner & Townsend 和 CBE 專案管理業務需要複雜的整合。因此，在第一年，我們預計 SOP 成長率將保持強勁，但略低於趨勢水平，約為 15% 至 20%。

Finally, in real estate investments, we expect to improve on 2024's SOP. Investment management operating profit will likely be flat with 2024, which benefited from a large incentive fee that will not repeat. In the development business, we see continued elevated data center activity and have positioned the portfolio to benefit from the secular tailwind, with data center site monetization’s expected to contribute more than half of this year's development profits.

最後，在房地產投資方面，我們預計 2024 年的 SOP 將有所改善。投資管理營業利潤可能與2024年持平，這得益於不會重複的高額激勵費。在開發業務方面，我們看到資料中心活動持續升溫，並已將投資組合定位為受益於長期順風，其中資料中心站點貨幣化預計將貢獻今年開發利潤的一半以上。

As to the seasonal distribution of earnings, Q1 will once again be our smallest quarter in the year. However, the quarter should see core EBITDA increase at a high teens rate, and it should contribute a low double-digit percentage of our full year core EPS. We also expect another strong fourth quarter in 2025, which should account for a similar portion of our full year core EPS as it did in 2024.

就收益的季節性分佈而言，第一季將再次成為我們今年收益最小的季度。然而，本季核心 EBITDA 應會以高十幾個百分點的速度成長，並且應為我們全年核心 EPS 貢獻低兩位數的百分比。我們也預計 2025 年第四季將再次表現強勁，其占我們全年核心每股收益的比重應與 2024 年相似。

In addition, we know that our restructuring efforts are largely behind us, and we are seeing the benefit of margin expansion across the company. As a reminder, we announced a major efficiency program in GWS in early 2024 to rapidly bring costs in line with revenue. This highly successful initiative resulted in an increase in one-time cash adjustments in 2024 that will not recur in 2025.

此外，我們知道我們的重組工作已基本完成，而且我們看到了整個公司利潤率擴大的好處。提醒一下，我們在 2024 年初宣布了 GWS 的一項重大效率計劃，以迅速使成本與收入保持一致。這項極為成功的措施導致 2024 年一次性現金調整增加，而這種現像在 2025 年不會再出現。

M&A related amortization and integration costs will continue, but we are highly focused on minimizing other cash adjustments. Therefore, going into 2025, we expect to meaningfully narrow the delta between our gaps and core earnings. With an improved market backdrop, we are poised to benefit from all the work we've done to create a resilient, growth-oriented enterprise capable of sustaining double-digit growth in 2025 and beyond.

與併購相關的攤銷和整合成本將繼續存在，但我們高度重視減少其他現金調整。因此，進入 2025 年，我們預計我們的差距和核心收益之間的差距將顯著縮小。在市場背景改善的情況下，我們有望從所做的所有工作中受益，從而創造一個具有彈性、以成長為導向的企業，能夠在 2025 年及以後維持兩位數的成長。

Now I'll hand it back to Bob, for closing remarks. Bob?

現在我將發言權交還給鮑勃，請他作結束語。鮑伯？

Thank you, Emma. I'll conclude with some thoughts on our participation in the data center sector for two reasons. First, we're receiving many questions on this topic, given the amount of activity in the sector. And second, our work with data centers clearly demonstrates how our strategy plays out in practice.

謝謝你，艾瑪。最後，我想談談我們參與資料中心領域的一些想法，原因有二。首先，考慮到該領域的活動量，我們收到了許多有關此主題的問題。其次，我們在資料中心的合作清楚地展示了我們的策略在實踐中如何發揮作用。

A foundational element of that strategy is to focus financial and operational resources in areas benefiting from secular tailwinds. And we have brought this focus to the data center sector, growing its contribution to core EBITDA from 3%, three years ago to almost 10% in 2024. Over that time, our total data center profit has increased over 2.5 times.

該策略的一個基本要素是將財務和營運資源集中在受益於長期順風的領域。我們將這一重點放在資料中心領域，對核心 EBITDA 的貢獻從三年前的 3% 成長到 2024 年的近 10%。在此期間，我們資料中心的總利潤成長了 2.5 倍以上。

Emma, commented that our development business is capitalizing on its competency in acquiring, improving, and monetizing land sites to take advantage of the data center opportunity. As a reference point, we did this with industrial land to great effect coming out of the pandemic. CBRE participates meaningfully in the data center sector across multiple other lines of business as well, including project management, facilities management, brokerage, and to a lesser degree, investment management.

艾瑪評論說，我們的開發業務正在利用其獲取、改善和貨幣化土地的能力來利用資料中心的機會。作為參考，我們在工業用地方面採取了這種做法，並在疫情結束後取得了顯著效果。CBRE 也積極參與資料中心領域的其他多個業務線，包括專案管理、設施管理、經紀業務以及投資管理（但程度較小）。

Turner & Townsend has more than 150 data center projects underway and has completed over 500 of these projects in the last decade. Data center revenue for Turner & Townsend has increased 50% annually in each of the last three years. Our facilities management group manages over 700 data centers within this business, we fortified our technical services capabilities with last year's acquisition of direct line global, which serves a large base of hyperscale clients.

Turner & Townsend 目前正在進行 150 多個資料中心項目，並在過去十年中完成了 500 多個此類項目。Turner & Townsend 的資料中心收入在過去三年中每年增長 50%。我們的設施管理集團管理著該業務範圍內的 700 多個資料中心，我們透過去年收購為大量超大規模客戶提供服務的 direct line global 增強了我們的技術服務能力。

In our advisory business, we arranged $9 billion of sales lease, and financing transactions for North American data centers last year. While total data center inventory in the market has nearly doubled in the past four years, our data center profit growth has outpaced this market expansion and is poised for continued strong growth.

在我們的顧問業務中，我們去年為北美資料中心安排了 90 億美元的銷售租賃和融資交易。雖然過去四年來市場上的資料中心總庫存幾乎翻了一番，但我們的資料中心利潤成長已經超過了市場擴張的速度，並有望繼續保持強勁成長。

With that Operator, we'll open the line for questions.

有了這位接線員，我們將開通熱線來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Anthony Paolone, JP Morgan.

（操作員指示） 安東尼·保隆 (Anthony Paolone)，摩根大通。

Thank you and good morning. First question relates to capital markets. Can you talk about just, -- your guidance around a more muted sort of recovery there versus, kind of what you're seeing right now today, trying to understand like if this volatility in rates over the last couple of months has actually paused things or if you're just being prudent kind of with the more muted rebound.

謝謝，早安。第一個問題涉及資本市場。您能否談談，您對經濟更為溫和的復甦的指導，與您今天所看到的相比，試圖了解過去幾個月利率的波動是否真的已經暫停，或者您是否只是對更為溫和的反彈持謹慎態度。

So, Tony, thanks for the question. I want to step back and say when we look at our transaction activity for the year, just like we did in 2024, we look at leasing and capital markets combined, because we can get to our outlook with across a broad range of scenarios and a broad range of rate outlooks. And then the other comment I want to make on rates specifically in capital markets is that -- this is a much smaller portion of our business.

東尼，謝謝你的提問。我想退一步說，當我們回顧今年的交易活動時，就像我們在 2024 年所做的那樣，我們會綜合考慮租賃和資本市場，因為我們可以透過廣泛的情景和廣泛的利率前景來了解我們的前景。然後，我想就資本市場利率特別提出的另一個評論是——這只是我們業務的一小部分。

Than would be implied by the number of questions we get asked about this business. So moving to capital markets specifically, what we saw in Q4 is transaction activity picked up across the board, but we're still far below peak levels we're 40% of, 2021, and we're not back at 2019 levels. We expect to continue to pick up in 2025 we're very early in the year, but in the first six weeks of the year we're seeing 20% growth in in US sales activity, but we are being cautious because we don't know what the trajectory of rates will be through the remainder of the year.

這從我們被問到的有關這項業務的問題數量就可以看出來。因此，具體到資本市場，我們在第四季度看到交易活動全面回升，但仍遠低於 2021 年高峰的 40%，而且還沒有回到 2019 年的水準。我們預計 2025 年利率將繼續回升，雖然現在還處於年初，但在今年前六週，我們看到美國銷售活動增長了 20%，但我們持謹慎態度，因為我們不知道今年剩餘時間利率的走勢如何。

On the financing side, we saw very strong growth in the fourth quarter. We're expecting that to continue, and one of the important components of financing is that there's still a tremendous amount of refinancing ahead of us. Maturity in 2025 will be at the same level of 2024, so that will drive our loan origination revenue, above our sales revenue.

在融資方面，我們看到第四季非常強勁的成長。我們預計這種情況將持續下去，融資的一個重要部分是我們面前仍有大量的再融資。2025 年的到期日將與 2024 年的到期日相同，因此這將使我們的貸款發放收入高於銷售收入。

But to tie it all together, you've got to think about our leasing and capital markets revenue in combination. And as long as the economy remains healthy and it's growing, our leasing revenue is going to grow. There's an upside to our numbers if rates come down more than everyone's expecting at the moment.

但要把所有這些結合起來，你必須綜合考慮我們的租賃和資本市場收入。只要經濟保持健康並持續成長，我們的租賃收入就會成長。如果利率下降幅度超過目前大家的預期，那麼我們的數字就存在上漲空間。

Okay, thank you. Thanks for that. Then if I on that note, zoom out a bit for my follow up to just the advisory segment more broadly, how much for the growth in SOP that you expect there is from like say revenue versus some margin expansion, trying to understand that like, how much come from each?

好的，謝謝。謝謝。那麼，如果我就這一點，稍微擴大一點範圍，以便更廣泛地跟進諮詢領域，您預計 SOP 的增長有多少來自於收入與利潤率的擴張，試圖了解每個方面分別有多少增長？

So on the top line, we're expecting low double-digit revenue growth and then we're expecting margin expansion on top of that.

因此，就營收而言，我們預計收入將實現低兩位數成長，並且我們預計利潤率也將擴大。

Okay, thanks for the color.

好的，謝謝你的顏色。

Michael Griffin, Citi.

花旗銀行的麥可‧格里芬 (Michael Griffin)。

Great, thanks. I appreciate all the color you guys have given on the project management business and the growth opportunity there. Obviously, I know there's going to be some integration aspect of the Turner & Townsend, part of that business in 2025, but as you look ahead to maybe '26 and beyond, does the Turner & Townsend growth run rate of 20%, make sense for that business because I mean it seems like there's a pretty large tam there. So maybe how should we think about kind of long-term organic growth potential with the integration of that business?

太好了，謝謝。我感謝你們對專案管理業務及其發展機會的詳盡介紹。顯然，我知道 Turner & Townsend 的部分業務在 2025 年會有一些整合，但當你展望 2026 年及以後時，Turner & Townsend 20% 的增長率對於該業務來說是否合理，因為我的意思是那裡似乎有一個相當大的規模。那麼，我們該如何看待該業務整合帶來的長期有機成長潛力？

Michael, this is Bob. The we don't expect that business to grow 20% on an enduring basis, but we do expect it to grow in the mid-teens. Turner & Townsend's portfolio of projects and the capability that they bring to the table, is in areas that grow faster than what our legacy business grows. So they are obviously based on our opening comments, very big in data centers. They're very big in infrastructure, very big in green energy and in, traditional energy.

邁克爾，這是鮑伯。我們並不期望該業務能夠長期維持 20% 的成長速度，但我們預計其成長率將達到 15% 左右。Turner & Townsend 的專案組合及其帶來的能力，是那些比我們傳統業務成長更快的領域的。因此，它們顯然基於我們的開場評論，在數據中心中非常大。他們在基礎設施、綠色能源和傳統能源領域都擁有很大的影響力。

They do, they're very big in manufacturing etcetera. Areas that that have lots of tailwinds. What our legacy business did was much more focused on Tenant finish projects for our occupier clients that would be attendant to the campuses they have and so forth. We also did some data center work, and we also did some more complex work, but Turner & Townsend tilts us heavily in the in the areas that are growing more rapidly.

是的，他們在製造業等領域規模很大。擁有大量順風的地區。我們傳統業務的重點更多是為我們的佔用客戶完成租戶裝修項目，這些項目將會服務於他們所擁有的校園等等。我們也做了一些資料中心的工作，也做了一些更複雜的工作，但 Turner & Townsend 讓我們更傾向於那些成長更快的領域。

So we expect that business combined to grow in the mid-teens. The Turner & Townsend piece was growing at closer to 20%, but when you combine the two and Turner & Townsend that leads it, we see it as a mid-teen's grower and we're confident in its ability to do that. We also think there'll be some M&A opportunities that come out of that business.

因此，我們預期綜合業務量將達到十五六倍的成長率。Turner & Townsend 板塊的增幅接近 20%，但是當你將兩家公司以及領先它的 Turner & Townsend 結合起來時，我們認為它的增幅將達到十幾歲的中段，我們對它的能力充滿信心。我們也認為該業務將會帶來一些併購機會。

Thanks Bob. I appreciate the color there. And then Emma, I just kind of want to go back to your comments around your development opportunities. It seems like you're pretty optimistic about the industrial portion of that, but if it seems like industrial leasing at least this past quarter was flat sequentially, should we take this as you're getting ahead of an expected recovery and should we, do you expect an inflection point in fundamentals, maybe toward the back half of this year?

謝謝鮑勃。我很欣賞那裡的色彩。然後艾瑪，我只是想回到你關於你的發展機會的評論。看起來您對其中的工業部分非常樂觀，但如果看起來至少在過去一個季度工業租賃環比持平，我們是否應該將此視為您正領先於預期的複蘇，您是否預計基本面會出現一個拐點，也許在今年下半年？

Michael, I'm going to take that one. What's happened forever in the development business is that when the very best time comes around to acquire sites for future development opportunities, because there's not going to be big deliveries because rental rates are going to recover over the next several years, many, many of the participants in the market go to the sidelines. Capital sources get, are afraid to invest, and developers can't acquire sites and start projects because they can't raise capital. I was just at a conference offsite this weekend and there was a lot of talk about that.

邁克爾，我要選擇這個。開發行業中永遠存在這樣的情況：當獲得未來開發地塊的最佳時機到來時，由於未來幾年租金水平將會回升，因此不會有大量土地交付，許多市場參與者都會退出市場。資金來源得不到滿足，不敢投資，開發商因為籌到不到資金而無法拿地、啟動計畫。這個週末我剛參加了一個場外會議，會議中有很多關於這個主題的討論。

We have a business that because of its track record, We can do a good job of raising capital right now, but we also lubricate the raising of third-party capital by putting more of our own capital into those projects at this juncture. So last year, we talked about it quite a bit. We on balance sheet capitalized two big portfolios, one office portfolio and one industrial portfolio. We, -- excuse me, one multi-family portfolio and one industrial portfolio.

我們擁有一家企業，由於其良好的業績記錄，我們現在可以很好地籌集資金，但在這一關鍵時刻，我們也將透過向這些專案投入更多自有資本來促進第三方資本的籌集。所以去年我們討論了很多這個問題。我們在資產負債表上資本化了兩個大投資組合，一個是辦公室投資組合，一個是工業投資組合。我們——對不起，一個多戶型投資組合和一個工業投資組合。

We think those projects We are going to harvest at a time when there's very little new product coming on, when rental rates will have recovered and when vacancies are down, we believe those projects will create great profit opportunities for us. There's smaller investments we've made in other projects that we think will have the same dynamics when they harvest. We're going to start 50 projects in Tramel Crow Company this year. We think they're going to harvest at a great time.

我們認為，當新產品上市很少、租金率回升且空置率下降時，我們將收穫這些項目，我們相信這些項目將為我們創造巨大的獲利機會。我們對其他項目進行較小規模的投資，我們認為這些投資在獲得回報時也會有同樣的動態。我們今年將在 Tramel Crow 公司啟動 50 個專案。我們認為他們將會在一個好時機收穫。

And that's really the strategy in that business. We have very seasoned developers they're very good at land acquisition. They're very good at land development, which allows us to get land lifts on things like industrial at the right time and data centers at the right time. But we believe that business is positioned to do very, very good things for CBRE as evidenced by Emma's comment that we see $900 million of embedded profit in what we have underway in the business now.

這確實就是該行業的經營策略。我們擁有經驗豐富的開發商，他們非常擅長土地收購。他們非常擅長土地開發，這使我們能夠在合適的時間獲得工業等領域的土地使用權，並在適當的時間獲得資料中心的土地使用權。但我們相信，這項業務將為世邦魏理仕帶來非常非常好的事情，正如艾瑪的評論所證明的那樣，我們看到目前正在進行的業務中隱藏著 9 億美元的利潤。

Great, that's it for me thanks for the time.

太好了，對我來說就這樣了，謝謝你的時間。

Julian Bowman, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安鮑曼 (Julian Bowman)。

Hi, thank you for taking my question. There was mention of the investment management division being sort of one of the more underappreciated, parts of the business and where there's maybe the most opportunity, I'd love to dig in a little bit on that. And also when we sort of think about the guidance for 2025 being flat. I guess just trying to understand what the drivers of that are, is it more on the sort of cost side, affecting the SOP growth? Is it top line, is FX having a meaningful impact, just sort of trying to unpick that.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。有消息稱，投資管理部門是業務中比較被低估的部分，也可能是機會最多的地方，我很樂意對此進行深入探討。而當我們考慮 2025 年的預期將持平時。我只是想了解其中的驅動因素是什麼，它是否更多地是在成本方面影響 SOP 的成長？這是營收情況嗎？

Julian, we think the entire real estate investment segment of our business is underappreciated. It includes Trammel Crow Company, our development business. I just commented on that. Why do we think that our investment management business is underappreciated? It's a big business. It's generated tremendous returns for our clients over the last decade. We have a number of funds that are very high-performing funds, a logistics fund here in the US, a core fund in the US, a core fund in Europe, value-added funds in the US and Asia.

朱利安，我們認為我們業務的整個房地產投資部分都被低估了。其中包括我們的開發業務 Trammel Crow Company。我剛才對此發表了評論。為什麼我們認為我們的投資管理業務被低估了？這是一筆大生意。在過去的十年裡，它為我們的客戶創造了巨大的回報。我們有許多業績非常出色的基金，包括美國的物流基金、美國的核心基金、歐洲的核心基金、美國和亞洲的增值基金。

A secondaries fund in the UK, all of which has performed have performed extremely well. There were other funds that we would like to start that we have not been in a position to start because we didn't feel that we had the experience in our leadership to do that. With the changes we've made to our leadership team, bringing Adam Gallistel, in to be our Chief Investment Officer and elevating Andy Glanzman, who's been on a rapid rise in his career in that business.

英國的一檔S基金，全部表現極為出色。我們原本想啟動其他基金，但由於我們覺得我們的領導層缺乏這方面的經驗，所以我們還未能啟動這些基金。我們對領導團隊進行了調整，任命亞當·加利斯特爾 (Adam Gallistel) 為首席投資官，並提拔了在該行業中事業上升迅速的安迪·格蘭茲曼 (Andy Glanzman)。

And with our balance sheet strength that we now have, we believe we'll be able to do additional funds to fill out holes that we have in our offering right now, and we believe we'll be able to scale the funds that we have in place, again, by using co-investments to attract other capital. We don't think that's fully appreciated in the market, and we expect to see a lot of growth coming out of that business and our development business over the next several years.

憑藉我們目前資產負債表的實力，我們相信我們將能夠籌集額外資金來填補我們目前提供的資金中的漏洞，並且我們相信我們將能夠擴大我們現有的資金規模，再次透過共同投資來吸引其他資本。我們認為市場尚未充分認識到這一點，我們預計未來幾年該業務和我們的開發業務將大幅成長。

And I want to just comment on your question around flat SOP year over year two components one is. Remember that in 2024 we had a large incentive fee in our highly successful US logistics fund. If you remove that incentive fee from 2024, we would be at high teens SOP growth in 2025, which is a great outcome this early in the recovery.

我只想就你關於 SOP 同比持平的問題發表一下看法，第一個是兩個組成部分。請記住，2024 年我們在非常成功的美國物流基金中獲得了一大筆激勵費。如果從 2024 年起取消該激勵費，到 2025 年，我們的 SOP 成長率將達到百分之十幾，這對復甦初期來說是一個很好的結果。

The other thing is this is a huge year for we expect this to be a huge year for capital raising, and it already is, -- in January. We expect to raise a near record amount of capital for our investment management business which will position us very well, to deliver really strong returns and strong growth in 2026 and beyond.

另一件事是，今年是重要的一年，我們預計今年將是融資重要的一年，而今年一月就已經如此了。我們預計為我們的投資管理業務籌集到接近創紀錄的資金，這將使我們處於非常有利的地位，在 2026 年及以後實現真正強勁的回報和強勁的成長。

That's extremely helpful. I guess maybe turning to share repurchase activity. The, -- it's been really encouraging the update, since the end of the third quarter, I guess just zooming out, how do you think about share repurchase activity fitting into your strategy, in '25, and how do you see that sort of balancing against the acquisition outlook, and sort of opportunities you see out in the market right now?

這非常有幫助。我想也許會轉向股票回購活動。自第三季末以來，更新的資訊確實令人鼓舞，我想只是放大來看，您如何看待股票回購活動適合您在 25 年的策略，以及您如何看待這種與收購前景的平衡，以及您現在在市場上看到的機會？

So as you alluded to on the last call, we both declared that we believe our shares are significantly undervalued. We still think that's the case given the growth trajectory of our business over the near and long term, and so we took advantage of that over the past, four or five months. Moving into 2025, as we've always said, we're going to continue to prioritize M&A.

因此，正如您在上次電話會議中提到的那樣，我們都表示，我們認為我們的股票被嚴重低估了。考慮到我們業務的近期和長期成長軌跡，我們仍然認為情況確實如此，因此我們在過去四、五個月中充分利用了這一點。邁入 2025 年，正如我們一直所說，我們將繼續優先考慮併購。

We have a strong pipeline. It's very challenging to time M&A, and it's all about, the timing of conversion and finding really great businesses that, are going to help accelerate our strategy. So we'll continue to prioritize M&A if we get towards the latter half of the year and, a number of those don't come to fruition, we'll fill in with buybacks.

我們擁有強大的管道。確定併購時機非常具有挑戰性，關鍵在於轉換的時機以及尋找真正有助於加速我們策略的優秀企業。因此，如果進入今年下半年，我們將繼續優先考慮併購，而其中一些未能實現，我們將透過回購來填補。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的羅納德‧坎登 (Ronald Kamdem)。

Hey, congrats on a great 2024. Just two quick ones, if I look at the global workplace solution, so the facilities management and project management, looks like 2024 margin was sort of well above what you guys expected. So I guess I'm curious as you're thinking about ford love an update on what the pipeline is looking at this point of the year and what more opportunities for margin expansion there may be there.

嘿，恭喜你度過美好的 2024 年。我只想說兩個問題，如果我看一下全球工作場所解決方案，那麼設施管理和專案管理似乎 2024 年的利潤率遠高於你們的預期。所以我很好奇，當您考慮福特時，想知道今年這個時候福特的管道情況如何，以及還有哪些利潤率擴大的機會。

So there's two components of your question. I'll start with the margin piece. So in 2024 and in the beginning of the year, you'll recall that we talked about our initiative to rapidly bring our costs in line with revenue in that business, and we were highly successful in getting those costs out in 2024 and resulted in solid margin expansion for the full year.

你的問題包含兩個部分。我先從邊注部分開始。因此，您會記得，在 2024 年和年初，我們談到了我們的舉措，即迅速使我們的成本與該業務的收入保持一致，並且我們在 2024 年非常成功地消除了這些成本，並實現了全年利潤率的穩步增長。

The benefit of those impacts is not, has not entirely been realized in 2024. So we'll can see continued margin expansion in GWS and now the new BOE segment in 2025. From a pipeline perspective, our pipeline is very strong, in enterprise, as I mentioned, in my remarks, it's across sectors, technology, healthcare, we're seeing, a bunch of renewals within, financial services.

這些影響的好處在 2024 年尚未完全實現。因此，我們將看到 2025 年 GWS 和新的 BOE 部門的利潤率持續擴大。從通路角度來看，我們的管道非常強大，在企業領域，正如我在發言中提到的，它涵蓋各個領域，包括技術、醫療保健，我們也看到金融服務領域出現了大量更新。

And so we're very optimistic about the organic growth within our enterprise business and then in local we have a really strong pipeline and a lot of growth to come in in the US market, which, as I, -- as we've mentioned a number of times, really is barely penetrating the US market and so we expect to continue to see a ton of growth there.

因此，我們對企業業務的有機成長非常樂觀，而在本地，我們擁有非常強大的管道，並且在美國市場還有很大的成長空間。

Great. And then my second question just staying on the building ops and experience, sort of segment and so forth, if I sort of, think about the combination of those businesses just would love a little bit more color on, just the competitive dynamics in that business and sort of what CBRE's sort of like up, is as you as you sort of go forward thanks.

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題只是停留在建築運營和經驗上，有點像細分市場等等，如果我考慮一下這些業務的組合，我會更詳細地了解該業務中的競爭動態以及 CBRE 的情況，謝謝。

Yeah, well, let me start by describing how we think about the opportunity to operate buildings around the world and then talk specifically about what we're doing here and why we combined those businesses. First of all, we think the opportunity is defined by the base of commercial real estate buildings that exist around the world. Now, obviously, there's a whole lot less penetration in places like China. Then there is in places like the UK, but it is an enormous base of buildings, and it includes all kinds of asset classes, industrial, office, multi-family, hospitals, warehouses, manufacturing facilities.

是的，好吧，首先讓我描述一下我們如何看待在世界各地運營建築的機會，然後具體談談我們在這裡所做的事情以及我們為什麼要合併這些業務。首先，我們認為機會是由世界各地現有的商業房地產建築基礎決定的。現在，顯然在中國等地的滲透率要低得多。還有像英國這樣的地方，但它有龐大的建築群，包括各種資產類別，工業、辦公、多戶住宅、醫院、倉庫、製造設施。

When you look across that base of assets, the management of that base of assets is very, very fragmented. Even though we manage 7 billion square feet, that's just a small, small piece of that portfolio. When you manage all those different classes of assets, there's some very common things that go on procurement, building engineering, maintaining records on the maintenance of the building and then responding to the, -- what you find in those records about preventative maintenance, accounting for the operations of the building. There's all kinds of commonality whether you're managing a hospital or a complex warehouse.

當你審視該資產基礎時，會發現該資產基礎的管理非常非常分散。儘管我們管理著 70 億平方英尺的面積，但這只是整個投資組合中很小的一部分。當你管理所有這些不同類別的資產時，會發生一些非常常見的事情，例如採購、建築工程、保存建築維護記錄，然後響應——你會在這些記錄中找到有關預防性維護的信息，以核算建築的運營情況。無論您管理的是醫院還是複雜的倉庫，都存在著各種共同點。

We think by bringing these businesses together, that we'll generate some strong synergies and strong learning across that kind of horizontal element to that portfolio buildings. Then we're building on top of that very specific capabilities as we mentioned in our opening comments., we managed 700 warehouses, we manage a huge number of complex distribution centers around the world, a huge amount of office space.

我們認為，透過將這些業務整合在一起，我們將在投資組合建構的這種橫向要素中產生強大的協同效應和強大的學習能力。然後，正如我們在開場白中提到的那樣，我們在此基礎上建立非常具體的能力，我們管理 700 個倉庫，我們管理著世界各地大量複雜的配送中心和大量辦公空間。

We're a very, very big manager of hospitals, and we have specific expertise in on a, in a vertical sense in each of those types of buildings. What we think we'll do by bringing this all together is grow our knowledge, grow the -- synergies across them, be able to scale our capabilities, and by the way, add experience to the mix with industrious and Jamie Hadari and really grow that business faster than it's been growing already, and it's already been growing well into the double digits. We also think we'll end up with a capability.

我們是大型醫院的管理者，從垂直角度對每種類型的建築都有特定的專業知識。我們認為，透過將所有這些整合在一起，我們可以成長知識，增強協同效應，擴大我們的能力，順便說一句，還可以透過勤奮和 Jamie Hadari 的經驗，真正使業務增長得比現在更快，現在我們的業務已經實現了兩位數的增長。我們也認為我們最終會獲得一種能力。

That's different than has been seen in the market before. I would say it's one of the areas of our future for CBRE that we're most ambitious about.

這與之前市場上見到的情況不同。我想說這是 CBRE 未來發展中我們最雄心勃勃的領域之一。

Thanks so much. That's it for me.

非常感謝。對我來說就是這樣了。

Stephen Sheldon, William Blair.

史蒂芬謝爾頓，威廉布萊爾。

Hey, thanks. Just wanted to follow up on industrial leasing I think you mentioned flat industrial revenue in the fourth quarter, and I think that would maybe reflect some stabilization versus prior quarters. So specifically, how are you thinking about the outlook for industrial leasing in 2025 and are you seeing early signs of things there may be starting to pick up.

嘿，謝謝。我只是想跟進工業租賃的問題，我想您提到了第四季度工業收入持平，我認為這可能反映出與前幾季相比有所穩定。那麼具體來說，您如何看待 2025 年工業租賃的前景，以及您是否看到了可能開始回升的早期跡象。

We are expecting to see some pick up this year in industrial leasing, not huge, there is still some sub-lease space or underutilized space with the big with the big users of industrial that needs to be worked throughout there. If that didn't exist, it would, the leasing would grow faster. But we are, we expect to see industrial grow in the low single digits this year, and we expect vacancies to be down by the end of the year, new deliveries to be down by the end of the year.

我們預計今年工業租賃將有所回升，但幅度不會很大，仍有一些轉租空間或未充分利用的空間，大型工業用戶需要在那裡進行開發。如果不存在這種情況，租賃就會成長更快。但我們預計今年工業成長率將維持在個位數低位，我們預計到今年年底空置率將下降，新交付率也將下降。

And so as you get beyond 2025, we expect to see, leasing pick up and by the way, the opportunity for delivering new space in the market through our development business to be really strong.

因此，到了 2025 年以後，我們預計租賃業務將會回升，而且透過我們的開發業務在市場上提供新空間的機會也將非常強勁。

Got it, that's helpful. And then on the, -- if you think about talent within advisory services, I guess how are you kind of managing headcount. In this environment, are you, have you been able to grow capacity, grow producer head count, how much competition is out there for talent at this point? Is that getting, more elevated or, just curious what you're seeing from a talent perspective and how that's playing into the capacity you have, things recover.

明白了，很有幫助。然後，如果您考慮諮詢服務中的人才，我想您是如何管理員工人數的。在這種環境下，您是否能夠提高產能、增加生產人數，目前人才競爭有多激烈？這是不是變得更高尚了，或者只是好奇您從人才角度看到了什麼，以及這如何發揮您的能力，事情是否會恢復。

There's always competition for talent, and it's a talent business, and there's always competition for talent. I, that discussion comes and goes over the years, and you think, oh my gosh, it's more competitive than it's ever been before. I would say it's about like it's been before. We compete very effectively because, particularly given what's happened in the last couple of years, the performance of CBRE, the stability of our whole business, the prominence of our brand, our ability to invest in the business.

人才總是存在著競爭，這是一個人才產業，人才總是存在著競爭。我認為，這些年來，這種討論不斷出現，你會想，天哪，現在的競爭比以往任何時候都要激烈。我想說它就像以前一樣。我們的競爭非常有效，因為，特別是考慮到過去幾年的情況，世邦魏理仕的業績、我們整個業務的穩定性、我們品牌的知名度、以及我們對業務的投資能力。

The leadership that our new advisory CEO, Vikram Kohli; brings to the table, and his, savvy around the technology that supports that business has been helpful to us in attracting people. So I would say, we've got capacity in that business. We can grow our revenues without adding headcount. We are likely to add some headcount and do some recruiting, and you should expect the dynamics around that recruiting, the economics around that recruiting to be about what they've been, maybe a little better.

我們新任顧問首席執行長 Vikram Kohli 的領導力；他對支持該業務的技術的精通幫助我們吸引了人才。所以我想說，我們在這個業務上有足夠的能力。我們無需增加員工就能增加收入。我們可能會增加一些員工並進行一些招聘，你應該預期招聘的動態和經濟狀況將與以前差不多，甚至可能更好一些。

Some of our competitors aren't in a position to be as aggressive as they've been in the past on recruiting. So that situation is sorting out pretty nicely for us right now.

我們的一些競爭對手在招募方面不再像過去那麼積極。所以目前這種情況對我們來說解決得相當順利。

Got it. That's helpful. Great results.

知道了。這很有幫助。效果非常好。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

Great, thanks. Emma, I guess in terms of the guidance of the 580 to the 610. How much of that incorporates sort of the potential $2 billion of sort of capital deployment that you did in 24, if you were to deploy that same amount of $25 meaning are all incremental buybacks, I guess incremental to that earnings or have you factored in some benefits from M&A and or buybacks?

太好了，謝謝。艾瑪，我想這是關於 580 到 610 的指導。其中有多少包含了您在 24 年所做的潛在 20 億美元資本部署，如果您要部署相同數量的 25 美元，這意味著所有都是增量回購，我猜是增量收益，還是您是否考慮過來自併購和/或回購的一些好處？

So the short answer, and I want to provide a longer answer, the short answer is there's no incremental buybacks or M&A in that guide. So anything that we do above what we've already reported on will be incremental to our EPS this year, but I do want to talk more broadly about our outlook, again, it is a wide range like we provided last year, but I want to provide some more context around it.

所以簡短的回答，我想提供一個更長的答案，簡短的回答是該指南中沒有增量回購或併購。因此，我們在已經報告的內容之外所做的任何舉措都將對我們今年的每股收益產生增量影響，但我確實想更廣泛地談談我們的展望，再次重申，這是一個像我們去年提供的那樣廣泛的範圍，但我想提供更多背景信息。

So at the mid-point, if you look at this outlook, we believe it's very strong. If you take out the FX headwind, we're at a high teens EPS growth rate. Which is a really strong outcome in a year when we're early in a recovery, but we're not expecting the acceleration that you'd see when interest rates drop to near zero. Our resilient lines of business in aggregate, we're expecting to grow around 15% organically, which is a really fantastic outcome.

因此，從中間點來看，如果你看一下這個前景，我們認為它非常強勁。如果消除外匯不利因素，我們的每股盈餘成長率將達到 10% 左右。在我們處於復甦初期的一年裡，這是一個非常強勁的結果，但我們預計不會出現利率降至接近零時那樣的加速。總體而言，我們的業務線具有很強的韌性，預計有機成長率約為 15%，這是一個非常棒的結果。

And then there's an upside to what we're expecting. So to get towards the higher end of the range, more development monetization’s could drive that increase sales activity, and we're also doing a lot of work around our interest expense. So we're doing a bunch of balance sheet hedging which I expect should positively impact our EPS in the latter half of the year.

然後我們就會看到我們所期待的事情有一個好的面向。因此，為了達到更高的目標，更多的開發貨幣化可以推動銷售活動的增加，而且我們也在利息支出方面做了很多工作。因此，我們正在進行一系列資產負債表對沖，我預計這將對我們下半年的每股盈餘產生正面影響。

The downside would be around the slowdown in the economy, which would drive leasing growth a little bit slower than we're expecting. No one expects that to be the case. And so if you step back and you look at our entire outlook, we have more confidence that we'll be at the upside, the higher end of our range, than the downside.

不利因素在於經濟放緩，這將導致租賃成長速度比我們預期的略慢一些。沒人想到會發生這樣的事。因此，如果你退一步來看看我們的整個前景，我們更有信心，我們將處於上行趨勢，即範圍的高端，而不是下行趨勢。

Great, thanks for that extra color, I guess, I don't know, Bob, or just, I was curious on the comments you made about office leasing and that said you pays 28% gain in the US. I guess my question was just more around the volume of improvement versus you know say doing a short-term renewal pay CB1 rate, but a 10-year deal where the company's got confidence pays you guys a lot more. So was the upside more driven by more volume or just length of lease or both?

太好了，謝謝你的額外介紹，我想，我不知道，鮑勃，或者只是，我對你對辦公室租賃的評論很好奇，而且你說你在美國支付了 28% 的收益。我想我的問題更多的是關於改進的幅度，而不是像你說的短期續約那樣支付 CB1 率，但如果公司有信心簽訂 10 年期合同，則會支付給你們更多的錢。那麼，上漲的動力更多是來自於銷量的增加，還是只是租賃期限的延長，或者兩者兼而有之？

Well, we saw volume increase, Steve, across many markets. I think, -- I would argue there was a pretty profound shift in what was going on in office leasing toward the back half of last year. So it had been a, let's call it a Park Avenue phenomena, that was really driving this thing, leases in New York, there's big fees around leases in New York well. What we saw in the back half of the year was pretty strong growth. In all the gateway markets, and upward rental pressure in the Park Avenue type locations except for really Boston and San Francisco.

嗯，史蒂夫，我們看到許多市場的銷量都有所增加。我認為，去年下半年辦公室租賃的情況發生了相當大的變化。所以，我們稱之為“公園大道現象”，這才是真正推動紐約租賃發展的因素，紐約的租賃費用很高。我們看到今年下半年的成長相當強勁。在所有門戶市場中，除波士頓和舊金山外，公園大道類地段的租金都面臨上漲壓力。

We saw strong growth in other, markets like Dallas and Atlanta, and Seattle, and even beyond that, in the next year of cities, Minneapolis and Pittsburgh. So we saw something different happen. We spent a lot of time with our clients, and what our clients said is their view of their use of office space is kind of stabilized. And it wasn't down as far as we thought, they were down about 8% per employee.

我們看到其他市場也出現了強勁成長，例如達拉斯、亞特蘭大和西雅圖，甚至第二年明尼阿波利斯和匹茲堡等城市也出現了成長。因此我們看到了一些不同的事情發生。我們花了很多時間與客戶在一起，客戶說他們對辦公空間使用的看法已經比較穩定了。但降幅並沒有我們想像的那麼大，每位員工的降幅約為 8%。

We thought it might be settling lower than that. And the ones that weren't certain about how much office space they were going to use. Suggested that it was more likely they would use more rather than less. And so I do think we're seeing a little bit of a return to the mean post-COVID. I don't think we're going to go all the way back to where we were in 2019, but it also appears based on empirical evidence that we're going to go further back than we thought we were before.

我們認為穩定溫度可能會低於這個水平。還有一些人不確定要使用多少辦公空間。這表明他們更有可能使用更多而不是更少。因此，我確實認為，我們看到了疫情過後略微向均值的回歸。我認為我們不會完全回到 2019 年的水平，但根據經驗證據，我們似乎將比之前認為的倒退得更遠。

And so that's really what you're seeing come through our numbers and that's what is causing us to View 2025 the way we do in terms of the growth of the business. I mean, you might want to add to that.

這確實是您透過我們的數字所看到的，這也是我們在業務成長方面對 2025 年做出展望的原因。我的意思是，你可能想補充一點。

And specifically to your question on term versus volume, it was a mix of all of it. So rent was like Bob, said relatively flat year over year. We saw some increases in in New York and other markets and from a rent perspective. But we said the big drivers were average square footage per lease, which is a big deal that increased significantly and then term obviously increased as well, so it was a good mix.

具體來說，對於您關於期限與數量的問題，這是所有這些的混合。因此租金就像鮑伯所說的那樣，同比相對持平。從租金角度來看，我們看到紐約和其他市場有所上漲。但我們表示，最大的驅動因素是每份租賃的平均面積，這是一個很大的數字，它大幅增加了，而且租賃期限也明顯增加了，所以這是一個很好的組合。

Great. Thanks, that's it for me.

偉大的。謝謝，對我來說就這樣了。

Alex Kramm, UBS.

瑞銀的亞歷克斯·克拉姆（Alex Kramm）。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Just, I think it was mostly GWS or BOE related, but can you just remind us about your exposure to the US government. I know that you do that the J&J acquisition last year to scale up that business. So with all this talk about doge etc. Just wondering how you think about any sort of risk or maybe even near-term opportunities as all that is reviewed.

嘿，大家早安。只是，我認為這主要與 GWS 或 BOE 有關，但您能否提醒我們您對美國政府的了解。我知道您去年收購了強生公司，以擴大業務規模。因此，在談論了 doge 等等之後，我只是想知道您如何看待任何類型的風險，或者甚至是短期機會，因為所有這些都經過了審查。

Alex, we don't have a lot of government exposure. J&J was an important acquisition that did give US government exposure but think about where the exposure was. It's hospitals and defense. It's in areas that We wouldn't expect a lot of downward pressure. And more importantly, it's just a little teeny piece of our business that gives us exposure to expand, no matter how big the government is, it's very huge compared to what we're doing with them now.

亞歷克斯，我們與政府的接觸並不多。強生公司的一項重要收購確實為美國政府帶來了風險，但想想這個風險在哪裡。它是醫院和防禦。我們預計這些領域不會出現太大的下行壓力。更重要的是，這只是我們業務的一小部分，它讓我們有機會擴展業務，無論政府有多大，與我們現在與它們合作的業務相比，這都是非常巨大的。

So we expect that to be an expansion opportunity. The other thing that, comes to mind quickly in our business, whenever the government slows down, we've got a big business in Washington DC on the advisory side. We don't own space in Washington DC. We're doing, -- we're not doing office development in Washington DC, but we do a lot of leasing in Washington DC.

因此我們預計這將是一個擴張的機會。在我們的業務中，我很快想到的另一件事是，每當政府放慢腳步時，我們在華盛頓特區就會有一家大型顧問公司。我們在華盛頓特區沒有自己的空間。我們沒有在華盛頓特區進行辦公室開發，但我們在華盛頓特區做了很多租賃業務。

So if there's churn in that market because of downsizing or exiting spaces to go into smaller spaces, we think the churn probably will help our business there. Now, it's not going to be big enough that it's going to be a needle mover for a whole company, but that's one of the good size markets we have. And we expect some churn there that might be helpful to our business. We just had our, all of our, advisory, local market leaders from around the country in Dallas for a meeting this week.

因此，如果由於縮小規模或退出空間進入更小的空間而導致該市場出現客戶流失，我們認為這種客戶流失可能會對我們在那裡的業務有所幫助。現在，它的規模還不足以推動整個公司的發展，但這是我們擁有的規模較大的市場之一。我們預計，一些客戶流失可能對我們的業務有幫助。本週，我們剛剛在達拉斯與來自全國各地的所有諮詢顧問和本地市場領導人舉行了會議。

And I met with the woman that runs our DC business, and she was feeling like the churn might be a good thing for them. So a lot of uncertainty about what's going to go on there, but we're not concerned that there's going to be any meaningful downward impact on our business anywhere.

我和負責我們 DC 業務的一位女士見了面，她覺得員工流失對他們來說可能是件好事。因此，對於那裡會發生什麼存在著許多不確定性，但我們並不擔心這會對我們的業務產生任何重大的負面影響。

Fair enough. Thank you for that. And then I understand that capital markets are becoming a smaller and smaller piece of your revenue and earnings space but maybe given that it's the beginning of the year. How do you think about the ultimate potential for that business? I heard you talk about. Slightly below 2019 and obviously much below 2021, but obviously the economy and your footprint has grown.

很公平。謝謝你。然後我了解到資本市場在你的收入和獲利空間中所佔的比例越來越小，但也許考慮到現在是年初。您認為該業務的最終潛力如何？我聽見你說話了。略低於 2019 年，顯然遠低於 2021 年，但顯然經濟和你的足跡已經成長。

So how, -- what's your latest thought about the ultimate, I guess t when we get into a much bigger environment and what's the latest thoughts on how that flows to the bottom line? Thanks.

那麼，當我們進入更大的環境時，您對最終結果的最新想法是什麼？謝謝。

So if you step back and you think about prior recoveries, I think -- you're talking to what the growth rate should be over the next couple of years as we go through the recovery. We saw strong growth last year. Like I said, we're seeing on the sales side 20% growth in the early part of this year, that should continue through the first half of this year, but then you get into the second half and you're up against some challenging costs.

因此，如果你退一步思考之前的復甦，我想——你會談論在我們經歷復甦的未來幾年中成長率應該是多少。去年我們實現了強勁成長。正如我所說的，我們看到今年年初銷售方面成長了 20％，這種趨勢應該會持續到今年上半年，但進入下半年，你就會面臨一些具有挑戰性的成本問題。

And again, we have to remind everyone you're not seeing this flood of activity like you would see when the economy is challenged, and rates drop significantly and none of us expect that to happen this year. But you could see the steady growth continues through this year and the next year and we'll get, it'll take a few years to get back to, prior peak levels. Coming out of prior downturns, even when we've had, interest rates drop significantly, it's taken five years plus to get back to peak levels of capital markets activity

再次，我們必須提醒大家，你們並沒有看到像經濟面臨挑戰時那樣的大量活動，利率大幅下降，我們誰也不認為這種情況會在今年發生。但你可以看到今年和明年將繼續保持穩定的成長，並且需要幾年時間才能恢復到之前的峰值水平。在走出先前的經濟衰退時，即使利率大幅下降，也需要五年以上的時間才能恢復到資本市場活動的高峰水平

So once we get back there, the steady state growth in that business is around a mid to high single digit, -- mid-single digit range, but we have a long way to get, we have a good amount of growth, until we get back to that level of growth.

因此，一旦我們回到那裡，該業務的穩定狀態增長率將在中高個位數左右，-中個位數範圍，但我們還有很長的路要走，我們有相當多的增長，直到我們回到那個增長水平。

Good, thank you.

很好，謝謝。

Jade Ramani, KBW.

傑德·拉瑪尼（Jade Ramani），KBW。

Thank you very much. I was wondering if you could comment on a few discrete earnings items including integration, cost reduction, charges, tax rate, and share count. On the cost and add back side, I think those items were around $350 million half of which came in for two. So just wondering if that's an ongoing. I if there'll be some increase due to resegmentation.

非常感謝。我想知道您是否可以對一些單獨的收益項目發表評論，包括整合、成本削減、費用、稅率和股份數量。就成本和附加價值而言，我認為這些項目的價值約為 3.5 億美元，其中一半來自兩項。所以只是想知道這是否是一個持續的過程。我認為重新劃分會導致數量增加。

Second would be tax rates, which came in at 18%, and I noticed some tax and audit charges if there's anything there you would like to mention. And finally, share repurchase, you said $800 million since 3Q, which I think implies, most of that was actually so far in 2025. I estimated around $2 million shares, repurchased in 4Q. So if you could comment on those 3 items, please. Thank you.

第二是稅率，為 18%，我注意到有一些稅收和審計費用，如果您想提一下的話。最後，股票回購，您說自第三季以來已經回購了 8 億美元，我認為這意味著其中大部分實際上是在 2025 年左右。我估計第四季回購的股票價值約為 200 萬美元。因此，請您就這 3 項內容發表評論。謝謝。

So starting with the adjustments, Jade, I provided a good amount of color in, my opening remarks. We announced, as you recall in early 2024 that we were, going through a cost reduction initiative within our GWS segment to rapidly bring those costs in line with our revenue. That program was highly successful, but it is now complete and so going into 2025. Those restructuring costs that you see in our adjustments should largely go away.

所以從調整開始，Jade，我在我的開場白中提供了大量的色彩。您還記得，我們​​在 2024 年初宣布，我們正在 GWS 部門內實施一項成本削減計劃，以迅速使這些成本與我們的收入保持一致。該計劃非常成功，但目前已經完成並將進入 2025 年。您在我們的調整中看到的那些重組成本應該基本上會消失。

M&A integration costs and amortization will of course continue as we continue to do M&A but we are very focused on bringing those one-time restructuring costs down to near zero in 2025. On the tax front, you'll recall that in Q1 2024 we had a large tax benefit, and for the full year that drove our tax rate below, what we typically see to 18% in 2025 we expect our tax rate to return to its normalized levels of 22%.

隨著我們繼續進行併購，併購整合成本和攤銷當然會繼續，但我們非常專注於在 2025 年將這些一次性重組成本降至接近零。在稅收方面，您會記得，在 2024 年第一季度，我們獲得了巨額稅收優惠，並且全年稅率都低於我們通常看到的 2025 年 18% 的水平，我們預計我們的稅率將恢復到 22% 的正常水平。

On the share[ repurc evercore has]front, we did $500 million worth of share repurchases in the fourth quarter, and the remainder was in in January and February.

在股票回購方面，我們在第四季度回購了價值 5 億美元的股票，剩餘的股票是在一月和二月回購的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and I'm now to call back over to CEO, Bob Sulentic; with closing remarks.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束，現在我將話題轉回給執行長 Bob Sulentic；並致結束語。

Thank you, everybody, and we'll talk to you again when we report first quarter results.

謝謝大家，當我們報告第一季業績時我們會再次與大家討論。

This concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your live at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束，您可以立即斷開直播。感謝您的參與。