Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

下午好。我叫艾瑪，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Etienne Marcus, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

財務和投資者關係副總裁 Etienne Marcus，您可以開始會議了。

Good afternoon. and welcome to our first quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. On the call with me today are David Overton, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; David Gordon, our President; and Matt Clark, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

下午好。歡迎來到我們的 2023 財年第一季度財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官戴維·奧弗頓 (David Overton)；我們的總裁大衛·戈登；和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Matt Clark。

Before we begin, let me quickly remind you that during this call, items will be discussed that are not based on historical fact and are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in forward-looking statements as a result of the factors detailed in today's press release, which is available on our website at investors.thecheesecakefactory.com and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today's date and the company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我快速提醒您，在本次電話會議期間，將討論不基於歷史事實且被視為 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述的項目。實際結果可能會產生重大影響由於今天的新聞稿中詳述的因素，與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的內容不同，新聞稿可在我們的網站 investors.thecheesecakefactory.com 和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。本次電話會議上做出的所有前瞻性陳述僅在今天發表，公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

In addition, during this conference call, when discussing comparable sales, we will be referring to comparable sales on an operating week basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. We will also be presenting results on an adjusted basis, which excludes impairment of assets and lease terminations and acquisition-related expenses. An explanation of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our press release on our website as previously described.

此外，在本次電話會議期間，在討論可比銷售額時，除非另有特別說明，否則我們將指的是按營業周計算的可比銷售額。我們還將在調整後的基礎上呈現結果，其中不包括資產減值和租賃終止以及與收購相關的費用。如前所述，我們在網站上發布的新聞稿中解釋了我們使用非 GAAP 財務指標以及與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標進行調節的情況。

David Overton will begin today's call with some opening remarks, and David Gordon will provide an operational update. Matt will then review our first quarter results and provide a financial update. Following that, we'll open the call to questions.

David Overton 將以一些開場白開始今天的電話會議，David Gordon 將提供運營更新。然後馬特將審查我們的第一季度業績並提供財務更新。之後，我們將開始提問。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David Overton.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給大衛奧弗頓。

Thank you, Etienne. We entered 2023 with positive momentum and carried forward that trend to deliver a solid first quarter with our top and bottom line performance in line with expectations. First quarter consolidated revenues increased 9.1% over the prior year to $866 million. Despite the record rainfall in California, our largest market, The Cheesecake Factory restaurants comparable sales increased 5.7% and versus prior year and 14.9% versus 2019, and North Italia comparable sales increased 9% versus prior year and 30% versus 2019.

謝謝你，艾蒂安。我們以積極的勢頭進入 2023 年，並延續了這一趨勢，實現了穩健的第一季度，我們的頂線和底線業績符合預期。第一季度綜合收入比上年增長 9.1%，達到 8.66 億美元。儘管我們最大的市場加利福尼亞州的降雨量創歷史新高，但 The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳的可比銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 5.7%，與 2019 年相比增長了 14.9%，而意大利北部的可比銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 9%，與 2019 年相比增長了 30%。

Demonstrating the strength and the resilience of our broader portfolio, we delivered positive first quarter comparable sales growth across all of our concepts. The extensive and growing appeal of our differentiated concept supports our belief that we are uniquely well positioned to capitalize on the continued favorable consumer demand for experiential dining.

為了展示我們更廣泛的產品組合的實力和彈性，我們在第一季度實現了所有概念的積極可比銷售增長。我們差異化概念的廣泛和日益增長的吸引力支持我們的信念，即我們處於獨特的有利地位，可以利用消費者對體驗式餐飲的持續有利需求。

Execution within the restaurants 4 walls was outstanding with our operators driving solid flow-through to support profitability. This, combined with input costs consistent with our projections resulted in adjusted net income margin of 3.5% for the quarter at the high end of our guidance.

餐廳 4 牆內的執行非常出色，我們的運營商推動穩固的流通以支持盈利能力。再加上符合我們預測的投入成本，導致本季度調整後的淨利潤率為 3.5%，處於我們指導的高端。

On the development front, we opened 2 FRC restaurants during the first quarter, including Flower Child. While we continue to experience some delays in openings due to supply chain challenges and permit approval delays, at this time, we still expect to open as many as 20 to 22 new restaurants in fiscal year 2023, including 5 to 6 Cheesecake factories, 5 to 6 North Italia and 10 FRC restaurants, including 3 to 4 Flower Child locations. Additionally, we anticipate 2 to 3 Cheesecake Factory restaurants to open internationally under licensing agreements.

在發展方面，我們在第一季度開設了 2 家 FRC 餐廳，包括 Flower Child。雖然由於供應鏈挑戰和許可審批延遲，我們繼續經歷一些開業延遲，但此時，我們仍預計在 2023 財年開設多達 20 至 22 家新餐廳，包括 5 至 6 家芝士蛋糕工廠，5 至6 家意大利北部和 10 家 FRC 餐廳，包括 3 到 4 家 Flower Child 餐廳。此外，我們預計將有 2 到 3 家 Cheesecake Factory 餐廳根據許可協議在國際上開業。

As we look ahead, we remain intently focused on delivering exceptional food quality, service and hospitality, the hallmarks of our success to drive long-term profitable sales growth. At the center of our execution capability are our people, the driving force of our company who enable us to deliver delicious, memorable experiences for our guests every day.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於提供卓越的食品質量、服務和款待，這是我們成功推動長期盈利銷售增長的標誌。我們執行能力的核心是我們的員工，他們是我們公司的驅動力，使我們能夠每天為我們的客人提供美味、難忘的體驗。

To that end, we are honored to have been named to Fortune Magazine's 100 Best Companies to Work For list for the tenth consecutive year. This recognition is a testament to our strong culture industry-leading training and commitment to our employees. We believe these attributes will continue to differentiate us as an employer of choice.

為此，我們很榮幸連續第十年入選《財富》雜誌 100 家最適合工作的公司名單。這一認可證明了我們強大的文化、行業領先的培訓和對員工的承諾。我們相信這些屬性將繼續使我們成為首選雇主。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to David Gordon to provide some additional details on our operations and marketing.

有了這個，我現在將電話轉給大衛戈登，以提供有關我們運營和營銷的一些額外細節。

Thank you, David. Our extensive and innovative menu and unwavering commitment to deliver excellent service and hospitality has made The Cheesecake Factory one of the most differentiated restaurant concepts in the casual dining industry for over 45 years.

謝謝你，大衛。 45 年來，The Cheesecake Factory 豐富而創新的菜單以及對提供優質服務和款待的堅定承諾使它成為休閒餐飲行業最具差異化的餐廳概念之一。

A key contributor to our success has been our distinct competitive advantage in staffing. Our ability to attract, train and retain highly dedicated staff members and best-in-class operators. We believe maintaining our industry-leading position in staffing is foundational to achieving our longer-term growth objectives. Our staffing levels remained healthy during the quarter. Applicant flow was robust, and our industry-leading attrition rates further improved.

我們成功的一個關鍵因素是我們在人員配備方面的獨特競爭優勢。我們吸引、培訓和留住高度敬業的員工和一流操作員的能力。我們相信，保持我們在人員配置方面的行業領先地位是實現我們長期增長目標的基礎。本季度我們的人員配備水平保持健康。申請者流量強勁，我們行業領先的流失率進一步提高。

In fact, in the first quarter, our hourly attrition declined by nearly 25% versus the prior year. We believe our retention trends were a key contributor to the sequential and year-over-year improvement in Net Promoter Scores and service and food quality levels for The Cheesecake Factory restaurants.

事實上，在第一季度，我們的每小時人員流失率與去年同期相比下降了近 25%。我們認為，我們的保留趨勢是芝士蛋糕工廠餐廳淨推薦值以及服務和食品質量水平連續和逐年提高的關鍵因素。

Importantly, North Italia's attrition levels are nearing Cheesecake industry-leading levels, despite not having the national presence and brand recognition that Cheesecake Factory enjoys, which we believe affirms the effectiveness of the practices and programs we've implemented over the past few years. As we think about further accelerating the growth of North Italia, the ability to leverage well-trained tenured managers and staff will facilitate our efforts to scale into new and existing markets.

重要的是，儘管沒有 Cheesecake Factory 享有的全國影響力和品牌知名度，但意大利北部的流失率接近 Cheesecake 行業領先水平，我們相信這肯定了我們在過去幾年中實施的實踐和計劃的有效性。當我們考慮進一步加速意大利北部的發展時，利用訓練有素的終身管理人員和員工的能力將有助於我們努力擴展到新的和現有的市場。

As you heard from David, our sales trends across our portfolio of concepts remain strong, and we continue to see stable guest purchasing behaviors. To this point, The Cheesecake Factory off-premise sales for the first quarter totaled 23% of sales for the third consecutive quarter. Additionally, we do not see any material changes in on-premise incident rates over the past year, with incident rates remaining above 2019 levels and daypart mix not changing materially.

正如您從大衛那裡聽到的那樣，我們概念組合的銷售趨勢依然強勁，我們繼續看到穩定的客人購買行為。至此，The Cheesecake Factory 第一季度場外銷售額連續第三個季度佔銷售額的 23%。此外，我們沒有看到過去一年內部事件發生率有任何重大變化，事件發生率仍高於 2019 年的水平，時段組合沒有發生重大變化。

Fox Restaurant Concepts also continued to drive strong results, with annualized AUVs of $7.9 million. We remain confident in the developing concepts in our portfolio and their ability to contribute to our growth.

Fox Restaurant Concepts 也繼續取得強勁業績，年化 AUV 為 790 萬美元。我們對我們投資組合中的發展概念及其為我們的增長做出貢獻的能力充滿信心。

Turning to marketing. As I've previously shared, we've been developing a rewards program for The Cheesecake Factory. The overarching objective is to leverage data analytics and insights to more effectively engage with our guests on a one-on-one basis and drive incremental sales. We initially launched a pilot of the rewards program last June in Houston, followed by a second pilot launch in Chicago last November. We've had strong operational execution, and as a result, have accomplished our pilot goals, with our acquisitions and member activity rates exceeding our expectations.

轉向營銷。正如我之前分享的那樣，我們一直在為 The Cheesecake Factory 制定獎勵計劃。總體目標是利用數據分析和洞察力，以一對一的方式更有效地與我們的客人互動，並推動增量銷售。我們最初於去年 6 月在休斯敦啟動了獎勵計劃試點，隨後於去年 11 月在芝加哥進行了第二次試點。我們擁有強大的運營執行力，因此實現了我們的試點目標，我們的收購和會員活動率超出了我們的預期。

We purposefully have taken a very measured and deliberate approach in designing Cheesecake Rewards to ensure it is consistent with our marketing strategy while targeting our desired financial objective of driving profitable sales growth. At this time, we're planning for a midyear national launch of our new rewards program.

在設計 Cheesecake Rewards 時，我們有目的地採取了一種非常謹慎和深思熟慮的方法，以確保它符合我們的營銷策略，同時實現我們期望的推動盈利銷售增長的財務目標。目前，我們正計劃在年中全國推出我們的新獎勵計劃。

And with that, I will now turn the call over to Matt for our financial review.

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給馬特進行我們的財務審查。

Thank you, David. Let me first provide a high-level recap of our Q1 results versus our expectations I outlined last quarter. Total revenues of $866.1 million were at the midpoint of the range.

謝謝你，大衛。首先讓我對我們第一季度的業績與我上個季度概述的預期進行高層次的回顧。 8.661 億美元的總收入處於該範圍的中點。

Adjusted net income margin of 3.5% was at the high end of the range. We continued to diligently manage G&A and depreciation, which combined as a percent of sales were flat with prior year. And we returned $25.6 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends and stock repurchases.

調整後的淨利潤率為 3.5%，處於區間的高端。我們繼續努力管理 G&A 和折舊，它們佔銷售額的百分比與上一年持平。我們以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 2560 萬美元。

Now turning to some more specific details around the quarter. First quarter sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $656 million an 8% increase over the prior year. Comparable sales increased 5.7% versus the prior year and 14.9% versus 2019. It is worth noting that as a result of fiscal 2022 having 53 weeks, the strong sales week between Christmas and New Year's Day shifted into the fourth quarter of 2022 from the first quarter of 2023. Due to this calendar shift, that high volume sales week was replaced with an average sales week in the first quarter, negatively impacting our first quarter revenues by approximately $10 million in comparison to the first quarter of fiscal 2022.

現在轉向本季度的一些更具體的細節。 The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳第一季度的銷售額為 6.56 億美元，比上年增長 8%。可比銷售額較上年增長 5.7%，較 2019 年增長 14.9%。值得注意的是，由於 2022 財年有 53 週，聖誕節和元旦之間的強勁銷售週從第一季度轉移到 2022 年第四季度2023 年季度。由於這一日曆轉變，第一季度的高銷量週被平均銷售週所取代，與 2022 財年第一季度相比，我們第一季度的收入受到了約 1000 萬美元的負面影響。

Sales for North Italia were $63.3 million, a 20% increase over prior year, supported by comparable sales growth of 9% versus prior year. Comparable sales versus 2019 increased 30%. For FRC, excluding Flower Child, sales totaled $68.6 million up 17% from the prior year, and sales per operating week were $152,200. FRC, including Flower Child, average weekly sales were $118,800 and External bakery sales were $14.9 million during the first quarter of fiscal 2023.

意大利北部的銷售額為 6330 萬美元，比上年增長 20%，這得益於比上年 9% 的可比銷售額增長。可比銷售額與 2019 年相比增長了 30%。對於 FRC，不包括 Flower Child，銷售額總計為 6860 萬美元，比上年增長 17%，每個營業周的銷售額為 152,200 美元。 FRC，包括 Flower Child，在 2023 財年第一季度平均每週銷售額為 118,800 美元，外部麵包店銷售額為 1,490 萬美元。

Now moving to year-over-year expense variance commentary. Cost of sales increased 10 basis points, driven by slightly higher commodity inflation than menu pricing. Labor decreased 130 basis points, predominantly driven by pricing leverage and slightly lower medical insurance expenses. Other operating expenses increased 50 basis points, mostly driven by deleverage related to the revenue impact from the fiscal calendar shift. G&A remained flat as a percentage of sales.

現在轉向年度費用差異評論。銷售成本增加了 10 個基點，原因是商品通脹率略高於菜單定價。勞動力減少了 130 個基點，主要是受定價槓桿和略微降低的醫療保險費用的推動。其他運營費用增加了 50 個基點，主要是由於財政日曆轉變對收入的影響而導致的去槓桿化。 G&A 佔銷售額的百分比保持不變。

Preopening costs were $3.1 million in the quarter compared to $1.8 million in the prior year period. We opened 2 restaurants during the first quarter versus no new openings in the first quarter of 2022. And in the first quarter, we reported a pretax charge of $3.4 million related to impairment of assets and lease termination expense and FRC acquisition-related items. First quarter GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.56. Adjusted net income per share was $0.61.

本季度開業前的成本為 310 萬美元，而去年同期為 180 萬美元。我們在第一季度開設了 2 家餐廳，而 2022 年第一季度沒有新開餐廳。在第一季度，我們報告了與資產減值和租賃終止費用以及 FRC 收購相關項目相關的稅前費用 340 萬美元。第一季度 GAAP 每股攤薄淨收益為 0.56 美元。調整後的每股淨收益為 0.61 美元。

Now turning to our balance sheet and capital allocation. The company ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $355 million, including a cash balance of about $116 million and approximately $239 million available on our revolving credit facility. Total debt outstanding was unchanged at $475 million in principal. CapEx totaled approximately $38 million during the first quarter for new unit development and maintenance.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和資本配置。公司在本季度末的可用流動資金總額約為 3.55 億美元，其中包括約 1.16 億美元的現金餘額和約 2.39 億美元的循環信貸額度。未償債務總額本金保持在 4.75 億美元不變。第一季度用於新設備開發和維護的資本支出總額約為 3800 萬美元。

During the quarter, we completed approximately $12.4 million in share repurchases and returned just under $13.2 million to shareholders via our dividend. While we will not be providing specific comparable sales and earnings guidance, given the operating environment continues to be very dynamic, we will provide our updated thoughts on our underlying assumptions for the second quarter and full year 2023.

本季度，我們完成了約 1240 萬美元的股票回購，並通過股息向股東返還了近 1320 萬美元。雖然我們不會提供具體的可比銷售和收益指導，但鑑於經營環境仍然非常活躍，我們將提供我們對 2023 年第二季度和全年基本假設的最新想法。

For Q2, based on our quarter-to-date performance, most recent trends and assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions, we anticipate total revenues to be between $870 million and $890 million. Next, at this time, we expect effective commodity inflation of high single digits for Q2. We are modeling net total labor inflation of about mid-single digits when factoring in the latest trends in wage rates, channel mix as well as other components of labor.

對於第二季度，根據我們季度至今的表現、最新趨勢並假設沒有重大運營或消費者中斷，我們預計總收入將在 8.7 億美元至 8.9 億美元之間。接下來，此時，我們預計第二季度的有效商品通脹將達到高個位數。當考慮到工資率、渠道組合以及勞動力的其他組成部分的最新趨勢時，我們正在模擬大約中個位數的淨總勞動力通脹。

Based on these assumptions, we anticipate net income margin of approximately 4.75% for the second quarter of fiscal 2023, at the midpoint of the revenue range I previously outlined, and this includes the elevated year-over-year commodities.

基於這些假設，我們預計 2023 財年第二季度的淨利潤率約為 4.75%，處於我之前概述的收入範圍的中點，其中包括同比增長的大宗商品。

Now for the full year. Based on our year-to-date performance, more recent trends and assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions, we continue to anticipate total revenues for fiscal 2023 to be approximately $3.55 billion. We currently estimate total inflation across our commodity baskets, total labor and other operating expenses to be in the mid-single-digit range, moderating throughout the year. And given our unique growth expectations, we are estimating preopening expenses to be approximately $24 million.

現在是全年。根據我們年初至今的業績、最近的趨勢並假設沒有重大的運營或消費者中斷，我們繼續預計 2023 財年的總收入約為 35.5 億美元。我們目前估計，我們商品籃子的總通貨膨脹率、總勞動力和其他運營費用處於中等個位數範圍內，全年都在放緩。鑑於我們獨特的增長預期，我們估計開業前的費用約為 2400 萬美元。

As we have said earlier, our goal is to effectively offset inflation with menu pricing to support our margin objectives. Assuming we do so and consumer trends remain consistent and there are no other material exogenous factors, we continue to expect full year net income margin of approximately 4% at the revenue level I provided.

正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是通過菜單定價有效抵消通貨膨脹，以支持我們的利潤率目標。假設我們這樣做並且消費者趨勢保持一致並且沒有其他重大外生因素，我們繼續預計全年淨利潤率在我提供的收入水平上約為 4%。

With regard to development, as David Overton highlighted earlier, we plan to open as many as 20 to 22 new restaurants this year across our portfolio of concepts, with approximately 80% of openings occurring in the second half of the year. And we continue to anticipate approximately $165 million to $175 million in CapEx to support this year's and some of next year's unit development as well as required maintenance on our restaurants.

關於發展，正如 David Overton 之前強調的那樣，我們計劃今年在我們的概念組合中開設多達 20 至 22 家新餐廳，其中大約 80% 的開業發生在下半年。我們繼續預計資本支出約為 1.65 億美元至 1.75 億美元，以支持今年和明年的部分單位開發以及我們餐廳所需的維護。

In closing, our first quarter operating performance was the most aligned with our pre-pandemic trends to date, both on the top and bottom line. Specifically, our total sales, most key business drivers and overall profitability were all in line with our expectations. Importantly, our absolute sales trends remain solid and consistent with historical seasonality despite the ongoing noise and volatility impacting year-over-year comparisons still related to the pandemic environment.

最後，我們第一季度的經營業績與我們迄今為止大流行前的趨勢最一致，無論是在頂線還是底線。具體而言，我們的總銷售額、大多數關鍵業務驅動因素和整體盈利能力均符合我們的預期。重要的是，我們的絕對銷售趨勢保持穩定並與歷史季節性一致，儘管影響同比比較的持續噪音和波動仍然與大流行環境有關。

And although environment remains dynamic with our solid top line performance, input costs gradually normalizing to more predictable levels and the strategic steps we have taken, we believe we are well positioned to return to generating our historically consistent operational and financial results. We are working hard to build on this momentum despite the macroeconomic uncertainty and believe the strength of our concepts and operating teams will continue to differentiate us through the balance of 2023 and beyond as has been the case for over 4.5 decades.

儘管我們穩固的頂線業績、投入成本逐漸正常化到更可預測的水平以及我們採取的戰略步驟，但我們相信我們已做好充分準備，能夠恢復我們歷史上一致的運營和財務業績。儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性，但我們仍在努力鞏固這一勢頭，並相信我們的理念和運營團隊的實力將在 2023 年及以後繼續使我們脫穎而出，就像過去 4.5 年的情況一樣。

With that said, we'll take your questions. Operator?

話雖如此，我們將回答您的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Sharon Zackfia 與 William Blair 的對話。

I guess I'm curious, you did mention weather in the quarter. I don't know if it's possible to kind of quantify what you saw at Cheesecake Factory because if I do the math correctly, it seems like comps might have been more in the low single-digit range in the second half of the quarter. And I'm just curious if that's a weather-impacted dynamic and if you think underlying trends are healthier than that.

我想我很好奇，您確實提到了本季度的天氣。我不知道是否有可能量化您在芝士蛋糕工廠看到的情況，因為如果我計算正確，似乎本季度後半段的收入可能更多地處於較低的個位數範圍內。我只是好奇這是否是受天氣影響的動態，以及您是否認為潛在趨勢比這更健康。

Sharon, it's Matt. I would say, just taking a step back, maybe more 20,000 feet, just the year-over-year comp, what you said is factually true. However, we saw significant variability last year in sales. Sometimes with the reopening trends, they moved to levels that we, at that time, said were not sustainable given that there had been some pent-up demand and I think increased buying per capita in the restaurants. And in other times, like in June and July where the industry saw it really received down because there was a significant case counts. So I think it is factually true, but it's a little bit of a, I think, narrow lens.

莎倫，我是馬特。我會說，只是退後一步，也許更多 20,000 英尺，只是年復一年的比較，你說的是事實。然而，我們發現去年的銷售額存在顯著變化。有時隨著重新開放的趨勢，它們會達到我們當時所說的不可持續的水平，因為存在一些被壓抑的需求，而且我認為餐廳的人均購買量有所增加。而在其他時候，比如在 6 月和 7 月，行業看到它確實受到了影響，因為案件數量很大。所以我認為這是事實，但我認為它有點狹隘。

When we look at performance versus historical seasonality, kind of pre-pandemic levels, 2018, 2019, the quarter was pretty consistent. And so on an absolute basis, we felt really good about the predictability. We came in slightly above the midpoint of expectations for us. What I would say about the weather is that's probably what kept us maybe from being a little bit more towards the high end of our own expectations, right? Because a lot of that weather came in California, and it came in the second half of the quarter after our call. which obviously at that point in time had not been considered at all. So I think we feel good about the stability and predictability that we did see.

當我們比較業績與歷史季節性，即大流行前的水平，2018 年、2019 年時，該季度非常一致。因此，在絕對基礎上，我們對可預測性感到非常滿意。我們的成績略高於對我們的期望中值。關於天氣，我想說的是，這可能是阻止我們更接近我們自己期望的高端的原因，對嗎？因為很多天氣都來自加利福尼亞，而且是在我們打電話後的本季度後半段。顯然當時根本沒有考慮到這一點。所以我認為我們對我們確實看到的穩定性和可預測性感到滿意。

And then on loyalty, when you launch that, is there going to be any kind of concerted marketing behind the launch of loyalty. And you mentioned it exceeded expectations. I'm wondering were the expectations sign-ups? Or was it also some sort of increased frequency or spend post sign-ups?

然後關於忠誠度，當你推出忠誠度時，忠誠度的推出背後是否會有任何形式的協調營銷。你提到它超出了預期。我想知道是期望註冊嗎？還是它也是某種增加頻率或在註冊後花費的東西？

Sharon, this is David Gordon. So to the second half of your question, it was increased our expectations around acquisitions and sales penetration, both. So we're happy thus far, certainly with the acquisition side, but as importantly, the actual use of the program whether that was the use of the reservation component or some of the published offers that we had rolled out during the pilot time both exceeded our expectations, which is why we feel good about a national launch coming up, hopefully, here in June. And as far as the marketing goes -- as far as the marketing goes, we'll be doing some national search engine optimization, marketing and awareness marketing, along with some in-restaurant marketing as well for the launch.

莎倫，這是大衛戈登。因此，對於您問題的後半部分，我們對收購和銷售滲透率的期望有所提高。所以到目前為止，我們很高興，當然是在收購方面，但同樣重要的是，該程序的實際使用，無論是預訂組件的使用，還是我們在試點期間推出的一些已發布的報價，都超過了我們的期望，這就是為什麼我們對即將在 6 月舉行的全國發布會感到滿意。就營銷而言——就營銷而言，我們將進行一些全國搜索引擎優化、營銷和意識營銷，以及一些餐廳內營銷以及發布。

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Long with Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自 Joshua Long 和 Stephens 的台詞。

Encouraged to hear the consistency in the model. You mentioned many times in your prepared comments about no real changes to consumer trends, consistent traffic, utilization across daypart, all very encouraging given the challenging macro backdrop. But just curious, as you think about that and take into consideration your outlook for commodity inflation, labor inflation, how does that inform your outlook for pricing over the course of the year? You had started taking up prices in the back half of last year. I think you were running about 10% for this quarter. And so just curious if your philosophy or outlook has changed as you've got a little bit more visibility into 2023?

鼓勵聽到模型的一致性。您在準備好的評論中多次提到消費者趨勢沒有真正的變化、持續的流量、整個時段的利用率，在充滿挑戰的宏觀背景下，所有這些都非常令人鼓舞。但好奇的是，當你考慮到這一點並考慮到你對商品通脹、勞動力通脹的前景時，這對你全年的定價前景有何影響？你們從去年下半年就開始漲價了。我認為您本季度的運行率約為 10%。所以很好奇，隨著您對 2023 年有了更多的了解，您的理念或觀點是否發生了變化？

Josh, this is Matt. It's obviously a very pertinent question, an area of focus and continues to be. We'll be reading the tea leaves, so to speak, and all of the data, I think, on a real-time basis, I think that was one of the big learnings actually from last year is that you need to be a little bit more nimble and agile and things happen. So it depends, right, I guess, is my point, if it stays the same or if it changes. So it's not, I think, a static answer. It's more of a dynamic one.

喬希，這是馬特。這顯然是一個非常相關的問題，一個重點領域，並將繼續如此。我們將閱讀茶葉，可以這麼說，所有的數據，我認為，在實時的基礎上，我認為這是去年的重要學習之一，就是你需要一點點更加靈活和敏捷，事情就會發生。所以這取決於，對，我想，是我的觀點，它是保持不變還是改變。所以我認為這不是一個靜態的答案。它更像是一個動態的。

I think our perspective is that with the incremental pricing we took in December, we got close to the inflation over the sort of pandemic cycle, if you will, still left us maybe 1% or 2% behind the industry, which is where we strive to be for competitive reasons. Certainly, the cost environment, I think, has been a favorable outcome so far this year. And some of the underlying trends could continue to support improved performance in the back half of the year.

我認為我們的觀點是，通過我們在 12 月採取的增量定價，我們已經接近那種大流行週期的通貨膨脹，如果你願意的話，仍然讓我們落後於行業 1% 或 2%，這是我們努力的地方出於競爭原因。當然，我認為今年到目前為止，成本環境一直是一個有利的結果。一些潛在趨勢可能會繼續支持今年下半年的業績改善。

And as always, we'd rather take less pricing. So that would inform us if it continues to be that way. Our goal this year is to offset this year's inflation with this year's pricing. And so that math will continue to be a guiding factor as we go throughout the back half of the year.

和往常一樣，我們寧願採取更少的定價。因此，如果情況繼續如此，這將通知我們。我們今年的目標是用今年的定價來抵消今年的通貨膨脹。因此，數學將繼續成為我們整個下半年的指導因素。

Very helpful. I appreciate that. And one follow-up, if I can. In terms of the development outlook for the year, encouraged to see that. Can you talk about just the timing, cadence and the ability to get stores opened up in the current environment? And within that, is the plan still to work towards bringing Flower Child into the fold? I think in prior calls, we've talked about just kind of the progression of that relationship and probably bringing them in the brand into default from a infrastructure, logistics development perspective and kind of what that can do for the brand going forward?

很有幫助。我很感激。如果可以的話，還有一個後續行動。就今年的發展前景而言，令人鼓舞的是看到了這一點。您能談談在當前環境下開店的時機、節奏和能力嗎？在那之中，計劃是否仍在努力將 Flower Child 納入其中？我認為在之前的電話中，我們只是討論了這種關係的進展，並可能從基礎設施、物流發展的角度將它們帶入品牌違約，以及這對品牌未來能做些什麼？

Thanks, Josh. This is David Gordon. And we feel good, confident about those 20 to 22 openings throughout the year. The cadence will probably be that we'll open a few in Q2, a few more in Q3 and then the bulk of them will be in the fourth quarter sort of typical for the industry. But some of the supply chain challenges that were more pertinent last year have subsided for the most part. We feel very prepared for that amount of openings. The permitting is getting a little bit easier over time. So we're pretty confident in that number.

謝謝，喬希。這是大衛戈登。我們對全年的 20 到 22 個職位空缺感覺良好、充滿信心。節奏可能是我們將在第二季度開放一些，在第三季度再開放一些，然後其中大部分將在第四季度出現，這對行業來說是典型的。但去年更為相關的一些供應鏈挑戰在很大程度上已經消退。我們為這麼多的職位空缺做好了充分的準備。隨著時間的推移，許可變得越來越容易。所以我們對這個數字非常有信心。

And at Flower Child, we continue down the integration path this year. Our teams here at the office, along with all the FRC teams are working through the plan that we constructed early on in the year, and we're on target to really be fully integrated by the end of the year, which was our goal at the onset and we would be the operating and opening all those restaurants utilizing the power of Cheesecake Factory and also all the supply chain components, IT components, all fully integrated along with most of the HR, which already has been. We did a lot of that work throughout the pandemic.

而在 Flower Child，我們今年繼續沿著整合之路前進。我們在辦公室的團隊以及所有 FRC 團隊正在執行我們年初制定的計劃，我們的目標是在年底前真正完全整合，這是我們的目標一開始，我們將利用 Cheesecake Factory 的力量運營和開設所有這些餐廳，以及所有供應鏈組件、IT 組件，所有這些都與已經集成的大部分人力資源一起完全集成。在整個大流行期間，我們做了很多這樣的工作。

And Josh, this is Matt. Just one follow-up to the Flower Child point. I think it dovetails well with the financial performance. All along, our objective had been to prepare the brand for enhanced growth in conjunction with hitting the return hurdles on a consistent basis. And the team at Flower Child has done an amazing job utilizing some of the scale benefits David was talking about improving some of the costs in the supply chain, making some investments to improve the efficiencies of the restaurants. And we look at that and it really marries well with the initiative that we have to enable that growth.

喬希，這是馬特。只是對 Flower Child 點的一個跟進。我認為這與財務業績非常吻合。一直以來，我們的目標一直是讓品牌為加速增長做好準備，同時始終如一地克服回報障礙。 Flower Child 的團隊在利用 David 談到的降低供應鏈成本的一些規模效益方面做得非常出色，他們進行了一些投資以提高餐廳的效率。我們著眼於這一點，它確實與我們實現這種增長所必須採取的舉措很好地結合在一起。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自 Brian Harbor 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Yes. Maybe just first, could you comment on the delivery business lately. And you're one of the few that, of course, still just has one delivery partner. Would it make sense at any point to consider adding other delivery partners?

是的。也許只是首先，你能評論一下最近的送貨業務嗎？當然，您是少數仍然只有一個送貨合作夥伴的人之一。在任何時候考慮添加其他交付合作夥伴是否有意義？

Brian, this is David Gordon. Thanks for the question. Our total off-premise still remains very stable and strong at 23%, as we stated earlier for 3 quarters in a row now. And delivery has maintained 10% of that sales all throughout those quarters and remained incredibly consistent. We believe that we continue to execute incredibly well with DoorDash. They give us all the data analytics that we could possibly want. We have an ongoing relationship where we're meeting quarterly and going over performance metrics. And of course, we feel we have just a very strong deal structure when it comes to our commission and marketing support.

布賴恩，這是大衛戈登。謝謝你的問題。正如我們之前連續 3 個季度所說的那樣，我們的總場外業務仍然非常穩定且強勁，為 23%。在整個這些季度中，交付量一直保持著銷售額的 10%，並且保持著令人難以置信的一致性。我們相信我們將繼續在 DoorDash 上表現出色。他們為我們提供了我們可能想要的所有數據分析。我們有一個持續的關係，我們每季度開會並審查績效指標。當然，在我們的佣金和營銷支持方面，我們認為我們擁有非常強大的交易結構。

So we also would prefer to have just for ease of execution and consistency of execution, one partner, the complexities of having 2, 3, 4 partners in managing the incoming orders, which I know some others have moved to is not somewhere that we need to go because of the consistent sales and allows us to execute at a very high level, which I think allows us again to take market share because the operators can do such a good job and part of the reason that we're still maintaining that 23% overall off-premise sales.

因此，我們也更願意僅僅為了便於執行和執行的一致性，一個合作夥伴，擁有 2、3、4 個合作夥伴來管理傳入訂單的複雜性，我知道其他一些人已經轉移到這不是我們需要的地方去是因為持續的銷售，讓我們能夠在一個非常高的水平上執行，我認為這讓我們再次佔據市場份額，因為運營商可以做得很好，部分原因是我們仍然保持 23總體場外銷售額百分比。

Okay. And then maybe just a question on the cost side. OpEx is something that's still kind of been higher, at least on a year-over-year basis, Matt, I know you kind of called out the calendar shift impact. Is there anything else you think that's kind of impacting that, whether it's repairs and maintenance? Or do you think that will be kind of a greater source of -- could it be a source of leverage as we go through the rest of the year?

好的。然後可能只是成本方面的問題。 OpEx 仍然有點高，至少在同比基礎上是這樣，馬特，我知道你有點提到了日曆轉變的影響。您認為還有什麼其他因素會對此產生影響，無論是維修還是維護？或者你認為這將是一個更大的來源 - 它可以成為我們今年剩餘時間的槓桿來源嗎？

Brian, this is Matt. That's a good question. And Etienne and I have been talking about that line specifically because it does stand out as having a little bit more pressure us. And really, it comes down to 2 areas that I do think based on the absolute dollar trends we're seeing start to moderate. The first one is utilities. So I know that we saw the nat gas market capitulate here but the way that it rolls through all of the bills and the electric system, et cetera, it does take a couple of months. So compared to last year and even on our sort of quarter-to-quarter, in the first quarter did remain elevated, although we are starting to see that move, and I do think that, that will be a tailwind for us on a relative basis.

布賴恩，這是馬特。這是個好問題。艾蒂安和我一直在專門談論這條線，因為它確實給我們帶來了更多壓力。實際上，根據我們看到的美元絕對趨勢開始緩和，我認為這歸結為 2 個領域。第一個是實用程序。所以我知道我們看到天然氣市場在這裡投降，但它通過所有賬單和電力系統等等的方式，確實需要幾個月的時間。因此，與去年相比，甚至與我們的季度環比相比，第一季度確實保持高位，儘管我們開始看到這種趨勢，而且我確實認為，這將對我們相對有利基礎。

And as you said, R&M is the other one. It will be a sort of a dynamic year, as I said earlier, doing all of the comparisons because of the changes in the rate of inflation in different categories last year was so unprecedented and really, that piece of it didn't start until the second quarter. So I think, again, on a comparable basis, we're going to see some moderation of those expenses. But trailing into the first quarter of the year definitely will be the highest inflationary component for us compared to the rest of the year.

正如你所說，R&M 是另一個。這將是充滿活力的一年，正如我之前所說，由於去年不同類別通貨膨脹率的變化是前所未有的，因此進行了所有比較，實際上，直到第二季度。因此，我再次認為，在可比的基礎上，我們將看到這些支出有所減少。但與今年餘下時間相比，今年第一季度對我們來說肯定是通脹最高的部分。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自 Brian Bittner 和 Oppenheimer 的對話。

Matt, a question on the guidance. Is the same-store sales growth outlook still roughly 7% for the full year as kind of a building block within your '23 revenue guidance? And I ask that because it appears like you slightly tweaked the full year AUV targets, they were $13 million. Now they're $12.5 million to $13 million. So I'm not sure if that implies a minor tweak to the same-store sales outlook as well.

馬特，關於指南的問題。全年同店銷售增長前景是否仍約為 7%，作為您 23 年收入指導中的一個組成部分？我問這個是因為你似乎稍微調整了全年 AUV 目標，它們是 1300 萬美元。現在他們是 1250 萬到 1300 萬美元。所以我不確定這是否也意味著對同店銷售前景的微小調整。

Brian, it's Matt. No, it's really the same. I mean, I think we used the words nearly $13 million before. So $12.5 million to $13 million, I mean I think it's more vernacular. Just on the outlook, because at least in our perspective, and I think the facts speak to this, the comps are so funny on a year-over-year basis. I think a better way to think about our expectations is in taking on looking at a little bit more of a long-term historical seasonal perspective and applying that going forward, right? And so we obviously model out a variety of different ways. We do the bottom up by restaurant, where we're looking at the individual restaurants and their local conditions. We do a top down. But in aggregate, it's really looking at the current conditions and saying, if things continue on a normalized basis, that gets us to the guide that we're providing.

布賴恩，是馬特。不，真的一樣。我的意思是，我認為我們之前使用了將近 1300 萬美元這個詞。所以 1250 萬到 1300 萬美元，我的意思是我認為它更白話。就前景而言，因為至少在我們看來，而且我認為事實說明了這一點，這些比較與去年同期相比非常有趣。我認為考慮我們的期望的更好方法是更多地從長期的歷史季節性角度來看待並將其應用到未來，對嗎？所以我們顯然模擬了各種不同的方式。我們按餐廳自下而上，查看各個餐廳及其當地情況。我們做一個自上而下的。但總的來說，它實際上是在審視當前情況並說，如果事情在正常化的基礎上繼續下去，這會讓我們達到我們提供的指南。

Okay. And just my follow-up is on the margins. Last call, I think you pointed out that you anticipated second half commodity inflation to be in that roughly 4% range. I'm curious if that stays the same today? Have you seen any movements there? And you also said that you anticipated restaurant margins to be somewhere in kind of the low 14% range to get you to that 4% net profit margin. Is that still a consistent way you're thinking about the margins?

好的。只是我的後續行動處於邊緣。最後一次通話，我想你指出你預計下半年商品通脹將在大約 4% 的範圍內。我很好奇今天是否保持不變？你看到那裡有什麼動靜了嗎？你還說，你預計餐廳利潤率會在 14% 的低範圍內，從而使你達到 4% 的淨利潤率。這仍然是您考慮利潤率的一貫方式嗎？

Yes, Brian. So in the second half, I think that's right. it's kind of the mid-14s for the year. It will move a little bit up and down, right? So if you did that same math, Q2 is going to be a higher restaurant margin, it always is, Q3 lower again, and Q4 a little bit higher. On the commodities front, our outlook really hasn't changed, right? So if you think about we kept the net income at the same level. I mean it does feel and look a little bit like things were getting better. But I think it's just too early to make a definitive call.

是的，布萊恩。所以在下半場，我認為這是對的。這是今年的 14 歲中期。它會上下移動一點，對吧？因此，如果你做同樣的數學計算，第二季度餐廳利潤率將更高，而且一直如此，第三季度再次降低，第四季度略高。在大宗商品方面，我們的前景真的沒有改變，對吧？因此，如果您考慮一下我們將淨收入保持在同一水平。我的意思是它確實感覺和看起來有點像事情正在好轉。但我認為現在下定論還為時過早。

So you're seeing some progress in categories like eggs, obviously, chicken remains decent, but do you have some risk, I think, still in categories like ground beef, right? So to us, I would just keep it there. And if things get better, that will be good and maybe we'll take a little bit less pricing too, right? So it kind of nets out against each other.

所以你看到雞蛋等類別取得了一些進展，顯然，雞肉仍然不錯，但我認為你是否有一些風險，仍然是碎牛肉等類別，對吧？所以對我們來說，我會把它放在那裡。如果情況好轉，那會很好，也許我們也會降低定價，對嗎？所以它有點互相攻擊。

So I think the big picture message here is we executed to our plan in the first quarter, right? The environment has returned after really 3 black swan events in 3 years to where you can have a little bit more predictability. We have the best operators in the business, and we think that the environment will enable us to execute in the back half of the year as well.

所以我認為這裡的大局信息是我們在第一季度執行了我們的計劃，對嗎？在 3 年內真正發生 3 次黑天鵝事件後，環境已經恢復到您可以有更多可預測性的地方。我們擁有業內最好的運營商，我們認為環境也將使我們能夠在今年下半年執行。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自 Brian Vaccaro 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

Matt, on The Cheesecake Factory comps, could you just run us through the traffic, price and mix reflected in 1Q?

Matt，在 The Cheesecake Factory comps 上，你能告訴我們 1Q 中反映的流量、價格和組合嗎？

I will. But first of all, note that we said 3 Brians in a row. It seems like a statistical anomaly. But anyway, Brian Vaccaro, sure. So for Cheesecake Factory, pricing was a little bit over 10%. Traffic was a positive 1%. Mix was a negative 5.7%. Of the mix piece, just keep in mind, about half of that is just the way that we account, right, as everybody knows, for the to-go business. And so it was -- traffic was basically flattish year-over-year in an aggregate basis.

我會。但首先，請注意我們連續說了 3 個 Brian。這似乎是一個統計異常。但無論如何，Brian Vaccaro，當然。所以對於 Cheesecake Factory，定價略高於 10%。流量為正 1%。混合為負 5.7%。在混合部分，請記住，其中大約一半只是我們對待辦業務的會計方式，正如眾所周知的那樣。事實就是這樣——總的來說，流量同比基本持平。

Okay. That's great. And I was going to ask you about mix specifically. Is it possible to help parse that out between like set aside the channel mix dynamics and try to isolate dine-in mix? And if you're seeing any changes specifically within the dine-in mix?

好的。那太棒了。我打算專門問你關於混音的問題。是否有可能幫助解析兩者之間的關係，比如擱置頻道混合動態並嘗試隔離堂食混合？如果您發現堂食組合有任何變化？

Sure. So of that, about half of it is the whole channel deal. The other piece, I would say, is attributable to the dine-in and predominantly because in last year's February and March, consumer behaviors, we just saw some outsized purchasing behavior. So this is right in line with our expectations. And I think as David Gordon noted earlier, all of our incident rates and purchasing behaviors per person remain measurably above the 2019 levels, but we do expect to see some bumpiness during the year, depending on what was happening in sort of the COVID trend. So it's about 50-50 in the first quarter with respect to those 2 components.

當然。因此，其中大約一半是整個渠道交易。我想說的另一部分歸因於堂食，主要是因為在去年 2 月和 3 月的消費者行為中，我們剛剛看到一些超大的購買行為。所以這正好符合我們的預期。我認為正如 David Gordon 之前指出的那樣，我們所有的事故率和人均購買行為仍明顯高於 2019 年的水平，但我們確實預計這一年會出現一些顛簸，這取決於 COVID 趨勢中發生的情況。因此，第一季度這兩個組成部分約為 50-50。

All right. And then I wanted to shift back to labor, if we could. And I think you said lower medical benefits. I think that's what you called out in Q1. Could you quantify that for us? And also, maybe more importantly, I heard your comments about improved staffing and lower attrition. I know last year, there's a lot of pressure from outside hiring, training and overtime costs. Any way to ballpark how much lower those costs were here in the first quarter?

好的。然後，如果可以的話，我想轉回勞動。我想你說的是較低的醫療福利。我想這就是你在第一季度所說的。你能為我們量化一下嗎？而且，也許更重要的是，我聽到了您關於改進人員配備和降低人員流失的評論。我知道去年，外部招聘、培訓和加班費帶來了很大壓力。有什麼方法可以估計第一季度這些成本降低了多少？

Yes. So the Group Medical was better. I would tell you, it wasn't a huge driver of the labor piece. I mean it may be $1 million. I think that the biggest factors are around getting the attrition levels back to pre-pandemic or close to it. I mean it was a significant move from the teams that did measurably help to lower training over time and just general productivity. I don't have a specific number, but really the entire difference I would attribute to sort of efficiency of labor net of just that $1 million of Group Medical.

是的。所以集團醫療更好。我會告訴你，它不是勞動力的巨大驅動力。我的意思是可能是 100 萬美元。我認為最大的因素是讓人員流失水平恢復到大流行前或接近大流行前的水平。我的意思是，這是團隊的一項重大舉措，可以顯著幫助減少隨時間推移的培訓和一般生產力。我沒有具體的數字，但實際上我將全部差異歸因於 Group Medical 僅 100 萬美元的勞動力淨效率。

Okay. And then last one, if I could just squeeze it in. Just on The Cheesecake Factory segment margins, Matt, I ran the quick math on Q1. And it looks like the segment was still down about 90 bps, maybe versus the first quarter of '19. And I know you took more pricing in February, but has that allowed Cheesecake margins to get back to pre-COVID levels maybe more -- in more recent months? And if not, maybe just remind us what's the bridge towards fully recovering those margins in '23?

好的。然後是最後一個，如果我能把它擠進去的話。就在芝士蛋糕工廠的細分市場利潤率上，馬特，我在第一季度進行了快速數學計算。看起來該細分市場仍下跌約 90 個基點，可能與 19 年第一季度相比。我知道你在 2 月份採取了更多的定價，但這是否讓芝士蛋糕的利潤率在最近幾個月回到了 COVID 之前的水平？如果沒有，也許只是提醒我們在 23 年完全恢復這些利潤率的橋樑是什麼？

Yes. And your math is correct. That's correct. We took a little bit higher-than-average pricing again in the first quarter. And keep in mind that as we noted, not just with the other OpEx, but the commodity inflation ran in the low double digits, right? So we expect it to not quite be there in the first quarter. I think the -- where we're at now with all of these pieces will enable us to be in the ballpark of where we want to be. There are a lot of variables that can change during that, right, sales levels, commodities can change, et cetera. But I think we're enabled to at least to be within striking distance for the past 3 quarters of the year.

是的。你的數學是正確的。這是正確的。我們在第一季度再次採用了略高於平均水平的定價。請記住，正如我們指出的那樣，不僅是其他運營支出，而且商品通脹率也處於低兩位數，對嗎？所以我們預計它不會在第一季度出現。我認為——我們現在所處的所有這些部分將使我們能夠達到我們想要達到的目標。在此期間有很多變量可以改變，對，銷售水平，商品可以改變等等。但我認為我們至少能夠在今年過去的三個季度內保持在驚人的距離之內。

Your next question comes from the line of Drew North with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自 Drew North 與 Baird 的對話。

Great. A lot of my questions have been asked already, but I'll follow up on unit development. It seems as though construction and permitting continues to be a challenge. So I guess my question is just your level of confidence of getting those 20 to 22 openings this year? And while recognizing you may not be looking to give specific guidance, wondering if you could just speak directionally about how the development pipeline is shaping up for next year? And if there's anything you're seeing from a build cost or real estate availability perspective that would make you look at the year differently than your longer-term algorithm?

偉大的。我的很多問題已經被問到，但我會跟進單元開發。似乎施工和許可仍然是一個挑戰。所以我想我的問題只是你對今年獲得 20 到 22 個職位空缺的信心程度？雖然認識到您可能不希望提供具體指導，但想知道您是否可以直接談談明年的開發管道是如何形成的？如果您從建築成本或房地產可用性的角度看到任何東西，會讓您以不同於您的長期算法的方式看待這一年？

Drew, this is David Gordon. We feel very confident about that 20 to 22 number for this year. And as we stated previously, a 7% overall unit growth is still something that we have great confidence in as we look towards next year. would still remain confident that, that 7% unit growth number is attainable and a target that we'll be working towards. We, as I said a little bit earlier, have not seen the same type of pressures on the supply chain and the permitting side. Things seem to be continuing to be a little bit easier as every month goes by, which is why we have that confidence in this year.

德魯，這是大衛戈登。我們對今年的 20 到 22 個數字充滿信心。正如我們之前所說，在我們展望明年時，7% 的整體單位增長仍然是我們充滿信心的事情。仍然會相信，7% 的單位增長率是可以實現的，也是我們將努力實現的目標。正如我之前所說，我們還沒有看到供應鍊和許可方面臨同樣類型的壓力。隨著每個月的過去，事情似乎繼續變得容易一些，這就是我們對今年充滿信心的原因。

And Drew, this is Matt. Just one on the financial piece. We, as along with everybody else, have definitely seen CapEx inflation. For the most part, it's been kind of paralleled by the unit volume expansion with the pricing I think that in aggregate, it really depends on the geography, but in aggregate, we are hitting the return levels that we need to, to keep pace with our long-term expectations of 7% unit growth.

德魯，這是馬特。只是一個關於財務的部分。我們和其他人一樣，肯定看到了資本支出膨脹。在大多數情況下，單位數量的擴張與定價並行，我認為總的來說，這確實取決於地理位置，但總的來說，我們正在達到我們需要的回報水平，以跟上我們對 7% 單位增長的長期預期。

Your next question comes from the line of John Ivankoe with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 John Ivankoe。

I know there's obviously been some -- a lot of comments around comps and the difficulty of kind of reading and accurate year-over-year. But I was hoping in the second quarter of '23, it would be relatively normal versus the second quarter of '22. And I just wanted to see exactly what comp guidance -- if I missed this, I really apologize. What comp guidance that you were inferring for the second quarter of '23? To us, it looks something like flat or maybe low single-digit positive.

我知道顯然有一些 - 很多關於 comps 的評論以及某種閱讀和準確年復一年的困難。但我希望在 23 年的第二季度，與 22 年的第二季度相比會相對正常。我只是想看看究竟是什麼 comp 指南——如果我錯過了這個，我真的很抱歉。您在推斷 23 年第二季度的指導方針是什麼？對我們來說，它看起來像是持平或低個位數的正數。

And on that basis -- to clarify that. And on that basis, it looks like traffic year-over-year still pretty meaningfully down in second quarter '23 versus '22. And if that is the case, where you are seeing pockets of customer weakness? Who is the customer that is coming less to you year-over-year? And is it a geography type of store type of customer? Is it in certain dayparts? If you could just elaborate on that, it would be helpful.

並在此基礎上-- 澄清這一點。在此基礎上，看起來 23 年第二季度與 22 年第二季度的流量同比仍然大幅下降。如果是這樣，您在哪裡看到客戶弱點？與去年同期相比，來您這裡的客戶是誰？它是地理類型的商店類型的客戶嗎？是在某些時段嗎？如果你能詳細說明一下，那將會很有幫助。

Sure, John. This is Matt. So the first thing just kind of to clarify is, we're not giving specific year-over-year comps. We're just providing an aggregate revenue, but that's the framework is essentially looking at where we were in the first quarter, more particularly around historical seasonality and applying that to the second quarter and the full year. And the reason is when we actually look at the comps for Q2 last year, they were pretty distorted. And in April, specifically, I mean, compared to, say, July, there was about a 10% delta in the comp, right? So I mean that's a huge difference.

當然，約翰。這是馬特。所以首先要澄清的是，我們沒有給出具體的同比比較。我們只是提供總收入，但這個框架本質上是在查看我們在第一季度的情況，尤其是圍繞歷史季節性，並將其應用於第二季度和全年。原因是當我們實際查看去年第二季度的比較時，它們非常扭曲。在 4 月份，具體來說，我的意思是，與 7 月份相比，補償中有大約 10% 的增量，對嗎？所以我的意思是這是一個巨大的差異。

So I think you're going to continue to see -- and I think that was reflected really if you look at Black Box and KNAPP-TRACK. I mean we tend to outperform, but we tend to follow the curve. So I mean, our opinion is that based on our specific performance, we're going to continue to see some of that bumpiness and it's not normal on a year-over-year basis.

所以我認為你會繼續看到 - 我認為如果你看一下 Black Box 和 KNAPP-TRACK 就會真正反映出來。我的意思是我們往往跑贏大盤，但我們傾向於跟隨曲線。所以我的意思是，我們的觀點是，根據我們的具體表現，我們將繼續看到一些顛簸，而且這在同比基礎上是不正常的。

And really kind of looking at the first quarter, as I noted, our traffic was pretty close to flat. So in aggregate, that feels good. I think mathematically, you're right that what we're modeling out is probably a little bit of negative traffic in the second quarter. I think that's pretty consistent with all of the reports that I've heard. And it's not really specific in general. I think that's really just a comparison issue more so than an absolute sales pattern.

正如我所指出的那樣，真的有點看第一季度，我們的流量非常接近持平。所以總的來說，這感覺很好。我認為從數學上講，你是對的，我們正在建模的是第二季度可能有一點負面流量。我認為這與我聽到的所有報告非常一致。一般來說，它並不是很具體。我認為這實際上只是一個比較問題，而不是絕對銷售模式。

And I think the one thing that -- we've said this before, and it does continue to be true. The very urban locations are probably the areas with the most opportunity still. But generally, we see pretty consistent performance across our dayparts and across our geographies.

我認為有一件事——我們之前已經說過，而且它仍然是正確的。非常城市化的地區可能仍然是機會最多的地區。但總的來說，我們在各個時段和各個地區看到了相當一致的表現。

We used to talk about years ago of kind of when weakness would ever show up in a comp, it would be on the shoulders middle of the afternoon, late at night, Monday through Wednesday, that type of thing. Are those type of historical patterns coming back and maybe that's what's making '23 versus '22 still look unusual?

幾年前，我們曾經談論過，弱點何時會出現在比賽中，它會出現在下午、深夜、週一到週三的肩膀上，那種事情。那些類型的歷史模式會回來嗎，也許這就是讓 23 年與 22 年看起來仍然不同尋常的原因？

No, I don't think so. I mean I was just looking at our stat pack today and I mean all of the stat pack line up pretty consistently, within 0.5% of the mix of the total for each category. I really think if we go back and we look at the percentage movements by month last year, there was a lot of variability. It is a very big changes between February to March, March to April and then through to July, it was just a very big movement.

不，我不這麼認為。我的意思是我今天只是在看我們的統計數據包，我的意思是所有統計數據包的排列非常一致，在每個類別的總數混合的 0.5% 以內。我真的認為，如果我們回頭看看去年按月計算的百分比變動，就會發現存在很大差異。從二月到三月，三月到四月，然後到七月，這是一個非常大的變化，這只是一個非常大的運動。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Bernstein with Barclays..

你的下一個問題來自 Jeffrey Bernstein 與 Barclays 的合作。

Great. Two questions. The first one, just on the outlook as we think about a potentially slowing macro. I'm just wondering where you'd say your confidence is greater, whether it be maintaining the sales momentum with the leverage you potentially have or perhaps the margin gains that you've recaptured? I'm just wondering where you feel like you'd be better positioned to hold onto if trends were to slow as we move through the year? And then I had one follow-up.

偉大的。兩個問題。第一個，只是關於我們考慮可能放緩的宏觀經濟的前景。我只是想知道你會說你的信心在哪裡更大，是通過你可能擁有的槓桿來保持銷售勢頭，還是你已經重新獲得的利潤收益？我只是想知道，如果隨著我們這一年的發展趨勢放緩，您覺得自己在哪裡可以更好地堅持下去？然後我進行了一次跟進。

Yes, Jeff, that's a really good question. I think it's very pertinent. This is Matt. I mean ultimately, our objective is always twofold, right? You want to try to protect or in our case, recapture margins and you want to protect traffic. I think, big picture, if we can have a more normalized situation this year, whether we $3.5 billion or $3.6 billion if we accomplish the margin objective and then we grow off of that base, we're going to be in a really good spot, right? I mean it will be a strong earnings and cash flow position.

是的，傑夫，這是一個非常好的問題。我覺得非常中肯。這是馬特。我的意思是最終，我們的目標總是雙重的，對嗎？您想嘗試保護或在我們的情況下重新奪回利潤，並且您想保護流量。我認為，總體而言，如果我們今年能有一個更正常的情況，無論我們是 35 億美元還是 36 億美元，如果我們實現利潤率目標然後我們從這個基礎上增長，我們將處於一個非常好的位置， 正確的？我的意思是這將是一個強勁的收益和現金流狀況。

And so to that end, based on what we're seeing today with the underlying labor market, in the commodities piece, it certainly feels like the margin profile lines up a little bit better than what we saw kind of coming out of the financial crisis. compared to the sales piece, right? And the ability for strong operating companies like ourselves to execute on that and to produce the bottom line that we're targeting feels like the environment has set up a little bit better for that side of the equation.

因此，為此，根據我們今天在基礎勞動力市場上看到的情況，在大宗商品方面，肯定感覺利潤率狀況比我們看到的金融危機後的狀況要好一些.與銷售片相比，對吧？像我們這樣強大的運營公司有能力執行這一點並產生我們所針對的底線，感覺環境已經為等式的那一邊建立了更好的一點。

Understood. And then just following up on that margin comment. I think earlier you said you guys are kind of keen to get back to a certain restaurant margin. I think you said the mid-14s for the portfolio in '23. And it seems like your strategy would be to price to do so. So whatever would be necessary to get there. Like you just said, I guess, you're keen to get back to a certain margin. But is there any concern that new pricing with the limitation being the food at home now falling below food away from home and maybe a slowing macro that you'd be hesitant to take that incremental price and therefore, let the margin be below to hopefully preserve some traffic? Or is that really the bottom line that you are keen to price to hit a certain margin?

明白了。然後只是跟進該保證金評論。我想早些時候你說過你們有點渴望回到一定的餐廳利潤率。我想你說的是 23 世紀 14 年代中期的投資組合。看起來你的策略是定價這樣做。因此，到達那裡需要什麼。就像你剛才說的，我猜你很想回到一定的利潤率。但是有沒有人擔心新定價的限制是家裡的食物現在低於遠離家鄉的食物，而且可能是一個放緩的宏觀經濟，你會猶豫接受這個增量價格，因此，讓利潤低於希望保持一些流量？或者這真的是您希望定價以達到一定利潤率的底線嗎？

Well, I think -- again, this is Matt. So it's always both, right? And we try not to prioritize too much one over the other. I think at this point, we've taken the pricing that we needed to do that, right? So now it's about providing absolute guest satisfaction and making sure that it's worth it. It is -- I think because of the unprecedented level of inflation and the curves that we saw, it gets a little bit tricky to think about year-over-year at any point in time versus kind of looking period-to-period or quarter-to-quarter.

好吧，我想——再一次，這是馬特。所以總是兩者兼而有之，對吧？我們盡量不要把一個優先於另一個。我認為在這一點上，我們已經採取了這樣做所需的定價，對嗎？因此，現在的重點是提供絕對的客人滿意度並確保其物有所值。這是 - 我認為由於前所未有的通貨膨脹水平和我們看到的曲線，在任何時間點考慮同比與類似的周期或季度相比有點棘手-到季度。

So now we may be lapping, I think, some of the rapid grocery store inflation. But those prices haven't come down, right? So they're just less inflationary. And if you stack it over time, we have priced less than the grocery stores have still to this day, right? So I think we're in a good position. I think we're poised to continue to strive to hit that margin target and if commodities are a little bit less, it will allow us to take a little bit less pricing. But I think we're balancing it pretty well right now.

所以我認為，現在我們可能正在應對雜貨店的一些快速通貨膨脹。但這些價格並沒有下降，對吧？所以它們的通貨膨脹率較低。如果隨著時間推移，我們的價格低於雜貨店的價格，對吧？所以我認為我們處於有利位置。我認為我們已準備好繼續努力實現該利潤率目標，如果大宗商品少一點，我們就可以降低定價。但我認為我們現在正在很好地平衡它。

Understood. So the pricing you've taken most recently allows you to hit what I think you previously projected, which would be 10% of the Cheesecake in the first half, and an easing to 6% and 5% in the third and fourth quarter, respectively. Is that what we should be modeling?

明白了。所以你最近採用的定價可以讓你達到我認為你之前的預測，這將是上半年芝士蛋糕的 10%，第三季度和第四季度分別降至 6% 和 5% .那是我們應該建模的嗎？

I think that's close. I think it might be 7 and 6 or something like that, but you're within 1%. And yes, we've already taken that.

我認為這很接近。我認為它可能是 7 和 6 或類似的東西，但你在 1% 以內。是的，我們已經接受了。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Tower with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自 Jon Tower with Citi 的專線。

Curious if you could dig into the loyalty program a little bit. Curious if you could shed light on how we should think about it from the way it's structured? Is it going to be a spend-based program, a frequency-based program? What sort of rewards can consumers expect? And what -- aside from driving frequency and some incremental spend, what else are you looking to gain from this?

很好奇您是否可以深入了解忠誠度計劃。想知道您能否闡明我們應該如何從它的結構方式來思考它？它會是一個基於支出的項目，一個基於頻率的項目嗎？消費者可以期待什麼樣的回報？還有什麼 - 除了驅動頻率和一些增量支出之外，您還希望從中獲得什麼？

Jon, this is David Gordon. Thanks for the question. I think there's really 3 components to the program. The first will be published offers, right, which would be things like access to reservations complementary slice of cheesecake on a member's birthday, those type of activities to support acquisition and just ongoing engagement. Then we would have unpublished offers that will be given throughout the year, and those are really designed to drive, as you mentioned, those incremental visits.

喬恩，這是大衛戈登。謝謝你的問題。我認為該程序實際上有 3 個組成部分。第一個將是發布優惠，對，這將是諸如在會員生日時獲得預訂補充芝士蛋糕，支持獲取和持續參與的此類活動。然後，我們將在全年提供未發布的報價，正如您提到的那樣，這些報價確實旨在推動那些增量訪問。

And then some key marketable moments. So that may be something around our -- what we used to be our traditional Treat or Treat Promotion around Halloween or National Cheesecake Day. And the program will be designed to be unique. So it won't be a points-based program. It won't be a spend-based program, more of a surprise and delight. We do know that access to reservations is an important component for people at Cheesecake Factory. We've historically been known for our long waits and we think that's a benefit that will certainly drive acquisition.

然後是一些關鍵的適銷對路的時刻。所以這可能是我們周圍的事情——我們過去是在萬聖節或全國芝士蛋糕日前後進行傳統的招待或招待促銷活動。該程序將設計得獨一無二。所以它不會是一個基於積分的程序。這不會是一個基於支出的計劃，更多的是驚喜和喜悅。我們確實知道，獲得預訂是 Cheesecake Factory 員工的重要組成部分。我們歷來以漫長的等待而聞名，我們認為這是一個肯定會推動收購的好處。

And we've seen so far very good usage of something that doesn't cost us anything on the margin side to be offering reservations to folks. So that's all along, our goal is to not have this program impact restaurant-level margins. And thus far, that's what we're seeing. So we'll be doing it in the unique Cheesecake Factory in fashion and the way we do most things. And hopefully, we'll be gathering enough data to be able to market specifically to guests to drive perhaps different time periods. So if you're only coming for lunch, we can talk to you and make sure that we offer you something and one of those marketable moments around dinner, et cetera. So we're excited to get started in June and use that data in a way that we haven't been able to before since we never had a traditional CRM program.

到目前為止，我們已經看到很好地利用了一些東西，這些東西不會讓我們在保證金方面付出任何代價來為人們提供預訂。所以一直以來，我們的目標是不讓這個項目影響餐廳層面的利潤。到目前為止，這就是我們所看到的。因此，我們將在獨特的 Cheesecake Factory 中以時尚和我們做大多數事情的方式來做這件事。希望我們能夠收集到足夠的數據，以便能夠專門針對客人進行營銷，以驅動可能不同的時間段。因此，如果您只是來吃午飯，我們可以與您交談，並確保我們為您提供一些東西，以及晚餐前後的那些適銷對路的時刻之一，等等。因此，我們很高興能在 6 月開始使用這些數據，這是我們以前從未有過傳統 CRM 程序以來無法做到的。

Got it. So to think about it from a high level in terms of spend, it doesn't sound like it will be super costly, but would this be additive to the current marketing spend that you have, which is fairly low relative to the peer set?

知道了。因此，從高層次的支出角度考慮，這聽起來並不昂貴，但這是否會增加您當前擁有的營銷支出（相對於同行而言相當低）？

Our goal would be able to keep it within the marketing spend and continue to be relatively low to the peer set, yes.

我們的目標是能夠將其保持在營銷支出之內，並繼續保持相對較低的水平，是的。

Got it. Okay. And then just shifting to development. Just thinking about this year, it seems pretty back half weighted. I think you said 80% of growth coming in the second half of the year. When looking beyond this year, and I'm not asking for guidance per se on numbers, but are we going to get back to a more normalized cadence of openings in 2024 and '25, to the extent you guys can shed some light on that?

知道了。好的。然後轉向開發。只是想想今年，它似乎已經減半了。我想你說過 80% 的增長將在下半年實現。展望今年以後，我並不是在尋求數字本身的指導，但我們是否會在 2024 年和 25 年恢復到更加正常化的開張節奏，你們是否可以闡明這一點？

Well, I think we can always hope that that's going to be the case. But for the past 25 years, the pretty typical cadence has been the back half of the year. So I wouldn't expect it to be -- I wouldn't expect it to be that much different. Who knows. Our pipeline, I think, is strong. We'd love to be able to shift some forward. But as we have more color around that, we'll certainly share that with you.

好吧，我認為我們總是可以希望情況會如此。但在過去的 25 年裡，非常典型的節奏是下半年。所以我不希望它——我不希望它有那麼大的不同。誰知道。我認為，我們的管道很強大。我們希望能夠向前推進一些。但由於我們有更多的顏色，我們一定會與您分享。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Sanderson with Northcoast Research.

你的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Jim Sanderson。

Just wanted to review briefly store count and unit growth goals. I think that compared to fourth quarter, I didn't see a lot of real net unit growth. I wanted to make sure I understood how the stores will flow into actual net growth by quarter.

只是想簡要回顧一下商店數量和單位增長目標。我認為與第四季度相比，我沒有看到很多實際淨單位增長。我想確保我了解商店將如何按季度流入實際淨增長。

Yes, Jim, this is Matt. It's a good question. We actually had 2 closures in the first quarter. So that's why it would look like it didn't net. We obviously, on an annual basis review of the portfolio and base decisions like that on timing of leases and cash flow outlook. And so it was just sort of a normal trimming and it usually happens at that time of year. So we're targeting the new openings, but we did have the 2 closures that would, on a total basis net against that.

是的，吉姆，這是馬特。這是個好問題。我們實際上在第一季度關閉了 2 次。所以這就是為什麼它看起來像沒有網的原因。顯然，我們每年都會審查投資組合和基本決策，例如租賃時間和現金流量前景。所以這只是一種正常的修剪，通常發生在一年中的那個時候。所以我們的目標是新開張，但我們確實有 2 次關閉，從總體上看，這會與此相反。

I think as David Gordon noted, it's a couple in the second quarter, 2% to 3% in the third, something like that, is what we're thinking. And then the balance would be in the fourth quarter.

我認為正如大衛戈登指出的那樣，第二季度是一對夫婦，第三季度是 2% 到 3%，我們正在考慮這樣的事情。然後餘額將在第四季度。

Okay. So the bulk of that will still be incremental to the fiscal year?

好的。那麼其中大部分仍將增加到財政年度？

Yes.

是的。

Very good. Second question, if I could. I just wanted to make sure I understood the commentary on the flattish percentage of sales for G&A. Is that expectation baked into your second quarter guidance? Meaning, I think there was a dip down in G&A as a percentage of sales last year. Is that going to take place in the second quarter? Is that typical?

非常好。第二個問題，如果可以的話。我只是想確保我理解關於 G&A 銷售額百分比持平的評論。您的第二季度指導中是否包含這種期望？意思是，我認為去年 G&A 佔銷售額的百分比有所下降。這會在第二季度發生嗎？那是典型的嗎？

Yes. And that's really more about the leverage of the sales. We tend -- second quarter tends to be a little bit of the peak of average weekly sales. So it's not so much that the dollar spend changes, but to get just a little bit of leverage. So it should flow kind of similarly based on that.

是的。這實際上更多地是關於銷售的槓桿作用。我們傾向於 - 第二季度往往是平均每週銷售額的高峰期。因此，與其說是美元支出發生了變化，不如說是為了獲得一點槓桿作用。所以它應該基於此類似地流動。

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman with Credit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Lauren Silberman。

I understand there's noise across channels that was looking at on-premise traffic, can you talk about where you're running relative to 2019? And presumably on-premise traffic is not fully back to pre-COVID so any color in terms of which dayparts or days might be running below are back to pre-COVID?

我知道在查看內部流量的渠道之間存在噪音，你能談談你相對於 2019 年的運行情況嗎？並且據推測，本地流量並未完全恢復到 COVID 之前的狀態，因此根據以下哪個時段或日期可能運行的任何顏色都恢復到 COVID 之前的狀態？

Sure, Lauren, this is Matt. It's been really consistent. So that again, that is true. We've sort of been in that 85% to 87% level of on-premise traffic for a while. It's almost identical to where we were in the fourth quarter is where we were in the first quarter. It's really not differentiated much based on day of week or stat pack. So it just seems to be kind of peanut buttered across that for lack of a more technical term.

當然，勞倫，這是馬特。這真的很一致。所以，這又是真的。一段時間以來，我們一直處於 85% 到 87% 的本地流量水平。這幾乎與我們在第四季度的情況與我們在第一季度的情況相同。根據星期幾或統計數據包，它確實沒有太大區別。因此，由於缺乏更專業的術語，它似乎有點像花生醬。

Okay. And then I just have another one on loyalty. It seems like the loyalty is targeted at dining occasions. Is that fair? Is there any component to drive and potentially reward both on-premise and off-premise?

好的。然後我還有另一個關於忠誠度的問題。忠誠度似乎是針對用餐場合的。這公平嗎？是否有任何組件可以驅動和潛在地獎勵內部和外部？

Sure, Lauren, this is David Gordon. It's actually both. We'd love to continue to drive dine-in traffic. But throughout the pilot period, we did test some marketing and promotions, specifically around online ordering, and we've been working with DoorDash to be able to integrate rewards members into the DoorDash platform which will allow us to make offers available to DoorDash members as well.

當然，勞倫，這是大衛戈登。其實兩者兼而有之。我們很樂意繼續推動堂食流量。但在整個試點期間，我們確實測試了一些營銷和促銷活動，特別是圍繞在線訂購，我們一直在與 DoorDash 合作，以便能夠將獎勵會員整合到 DoorDash 平台中，這將使我們能夠向 DoorDash 會員提供優惠出色地。

Great. And then just a final one, a follow-up on the mix trends you spoke about. Is there any sense of how we can think about when that starts to expect to normalize? Just thinking about the -- I guess, you guys have a better sense of the lapping of when attachment rates started to peak.

偉大的。然後是最後一個，跟進你所說的混合趨勢。是否有任何關於我們如何考慮何時開始預期正常化的感覺？想想——我想，你們對附件率何時開始達到頂峰的時間有更好的了解。

Well, we've had 3 quarters in a row, Lauren, and this is Matt, of 23% off-premise. So as a percentage, it seems like it's kind of been consistently in that range. And the average weekly sales seem to be growing at the same pace as pricing. So I think plus or minus percent based on seasonality. We do tend to see that the middle of the year months are a little bit less as a percentage. I think that's just based on consumer behavior and something that the whole industry sees. But sort of in that ballpark seems to be the stride that we've been in for almost a year now.

好吧，我們已經連續 3 個季度了，勞倫，這是馬特，23% 的非前提。所以作為一個百分比，它似乎一直在這個範圍內。平均每週銷售額似乎與定價同步增長。所以我認為根據季節性加減百分比。我們確實傾向於看到年中月份的百分比略低。我認為這只是基於消費者行為和整個行業所看到的東西。但在那個球場上似乎是我們近一年來所取得的進步。

Your final question today comes from the line of Dennis Geiger with UBS.

您今天的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Dennis Geiger。

I wanted to ask one more on underlying sales trends. I know you mentioned as some choppiness in the year ago period. But could you speak at all to sort of the recent months 2Q to-date sales if you compared it versus '19, presumably, that could take out some of the 2022 noise, if that's a fair way to think about it?

我想再問一個關於潛在銷售趨勢的問題。我知道你提到過一年前的一些波動。但是，如果您將最近幾個月的第二季度迄今為止的銷售額與 19 年的銷售額進行比較，您能否說說這可能會消除一些 2022 年的噪音，如果這是一種公平的思考方式的話？

Sure. Again, I think for us, the way that we built up our forecast is based on looking at that sort of 2018 and 2019 seasonality perspective and applying that to the Q2 and balance of the year outlook. We've seen very steady sales in the first quarter of the year. And we feel good that the predictability of the business has enabled us to give a good perspective on the second quarter.

當然。同樣，我認為對我們來說，我們建立預測的方式是基於對 2018 年和 2019 年季節性觀點的研究，並將其應用於第二季度和年度餘額展望。我們看到今年第一季度的銷售額非常穩定。我們感到很好的是，業務的可預測性使我們能夠對第二季度給出一個好的看法。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連接。