Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to The Cheesecake Factory Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Etienne Marcus, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

午安.我叫艾瑪，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 The Cheesecake Factory 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）財務與投資者關係副總裁 Etienne Marcus，您可以開始會議了。

Good afternoon, and welcome to our third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. On the call with me today are David Overton, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; David Gordon, our President; and Matt Clark, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼執行長 David Overton；大衛‧戈登，我們的總統；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Matt Clark。

Before we begin, let me quickly remind you that during this call, items will be discussed that are not based on historical facts and are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in forward-looking statements as a result of the factors detailed in today's press release, which is available on our website at investors.thecheesecakefactory.com and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today's date, and the company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，讓我快速提醒您，在本次電話會議中，將討論的項目並非基於歷史事實，而是被視為1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能會產生重大影響。由於今天新聞稿中詳述的因素，該聲明與前瞻性陳述中明示或暗示的內容有所不同，該新聞稿可在我們的網站Investors.thecheesecakefactory.com 以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中查閱。本次電話會議中所做的所有前瞻性陳述僅代表今天的情況，本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的責任。

In addition, during this conference call, when discussing comparable sales, we will be referring to comparable sales on an operating week basis, unless specifically stated otherwise. We will also be presenting results on an adjusted basis, which excludes impairment of assets, lease terminations and acquisition-related expenses. An explanation of our use of non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures appear in our press release on our website as previously described.

此外，在本次電話會議中，在討論可比較銷售額時，除非另有說明，我們將指的是按營業週計算的可比較銷售額。我們也會在調整後的基礎上公佈業績，其中不包括資產減損、租賃終止和收購相關費用。如前所述，我們網站上的新聞稿中對我們使用非公認會計原則財務指標以及與最直接可比較的公認會計原則指標的調節進行了解釋。

David Overton will begin today's call with some opening remarks, and David Gordon will provide an operational update. Matt will then review our third quarter results and provide a financial update. Following that, we'll open the call to questions. With that, I'll turn the call over to David Overton.

大衛·奧弗頓 (David Overton) 將在今天的電話會議上發表一些開場白，大衛·戈登 (David Gordon) 將提供最新的運營情況。然後，馬特將審查我們的第三季業績並提供財務更新。接下來，我們將開始提問。這樣，我會將電話轉給大衛·奧弗頓。

Thank you, Etienne.

謝謝你，艾蒂安。

Third quarter consolidated revenues increased 5.9% over the prior year to $830 million, led by comparable sales growth The Cheesecake Factory restaurants of 2.4% versus the prior year and 12.6% versus 2019, exceeding the Knapp-Track and Black Box casual dining indices for both time periods. Our strategy will always revolve around what we do best, delivering exceptional service and hospitality and delicious, memorable experiences for our valued guests. We believe our position as an experiential dining leader will continue to differentiate us in the industry and drive profitable sales growth over the long term. And with the improved restaurant staffing levels, our best-in-class operators have been able to increase their focus on consistently executing our strategy. We believe this contributed to third quarter comparable sales at The Cheesecake Factory, increasing sequentially despite the softening sales environment and importantly, traffic at The Cheesecake Factory meaningfully outperformed the broader casual dining industry.

第三季合併收入較上年增長5.9%，達到8.3 億美元，其中The Cheesecake Factory 餐廳的可比銷售額增長較上年增長2.4%，較2019 年增長12.6%，超過了Knapp-Track 和Black Box 休閒餐飲指數時段。我們的策略將始終圍繞著我們最擅長的事情，為我們尊貴的客人提供卓越的服務和熱情好客以及美味、難忘的體驗。我們相信，我們作為體驗式餐飲領導者的地位將繼續使我們在行業中脫穎而出，並推動長期盈利的銷售成長。隨著餐廳人員配備水準的提高，我們一流的經營者能夠更加專注於持續執行我們的策略。我們相信，這對The Cheesecake Factory 第三季度的可比銷售額做出了貢獻，儘管銷售環境疲軟，但仍持續增長，重要的是，The Cheesecake Factory 的客流量顯著優於更廣泛的休閒餐飲行業。

On the development front, we opened 2 Cheesecake Factory restaurants to strong demand during the third quarter and subsequent to quarter end 2 FRC locations. We continue to make progress against our pipeline and construction is ongoing on all of our restaurants we had previously planned to open this year. However, consistent with the trends seen throughout the industry, we continue to experience challenges beyond our control, particularly with permitting delays, pushing some of our opening dates to late December. In order to adhere to our proven development process and ensure new restaurants open well positioned to succeed, we have strategically decided to move some of our openings into the first quarter of next year. As such, we now expect to open as many as 16 new restaurants in 2023 and 4 to 6 new restaurants in the first quarter of 2024. Thus, between 16 openings for this year and 4 to 6 for next quarter, we are effectively at the 20 to 22 new restaurant openings we had previously anticipated earlier this year. The new restaurant openings for 2023 include as many as 5 Cheesecake Factories, 4 North Italia and 7 FRC restaurants, including 1 Flower Child location.

在開發方面，我們在第三季開設了 2 家 Cheesecake Factory 餐廳，並在季度末開設了 2 家 FRC 餐廳，以滿足強勁的需求。我們繼續在管道方面取得進展，我們之前計劃今年開業的所有餐廳的建設正在進行中。然而，與整個行業的趨勢一致，我們繼續遇到超出我們控制範圍的挑戰，特別是允許延遲，將我們的一些開業日期推遲到 12 月底。為了堅持我們行之有效的發展流程，並確保新餐廳的開幕能夠成功，我們策略性地決定將部分新餐廳移至明年第一季。因此，我們現在預計2023 年將開設多達16 家新餐廳，2024 年第一季將開設4 至6 家新餐廳。因此，今年新開16 家餐廳和下季新開4 至6 家餐廳之間，我們實際上處於我們此前預計今年早些時候將有 20 至 22 家新餐廳開業。 2023 年新開幕的餐廳包括多達 5 家 Cheesecake Factory、4 家 North Italia 餐廳和 7 家 FRC 餐廳，其中包括 1 家 Flower Child 餐廳。

Last week, our fifth location in Mainland China opened, including this location, we now expect 2 Cheesecake Factory restaurants to open internationally under licensing agreements in 2023. Despite the ongoing permitting challenges, we continue to accelerate our development activity and build our pipeline. At this time, our expectations for 2024 are to take another measurable step towards achieving our objective of 7% annual unit growth. I'm also excited to share that last week, we announced plans to develop our third bakery production facility in Charlestown, Indiana. Upon completion, the facility will produce the Cheesecake Factory's cheesecakes and Signature bakery products for our restaurants and other retailers in addition to providing anticipated distribution efficiencies. Our vertically integrated bakery is a distinct competitive advantage with our desserts driving the strong affinity for The Cheesecake Factory brand as illustrated by our industry-leading dessert sales.

上週，我們在中國大陸的第五家分店開業，包括這家分店，我們現在預計2023 年將根據許可協議在國際上開設2 家Cheesecake Factory 餐廳。儘管面臨持續的許可挑戰，我們仍將繼續加快我們的開發活動並建造我們的管道。目前，我們對 2024 年的期望是朝著實現年度銷售成長 7% 的目標邁出又一個可衡量的步驟。我還很高興與大家分享，上週，我們宣布計劃在印第安納州查爾斯敦開發我們的第三個麵包店生產設施。完工後，該設施除了提供預期的分銷效率外，還將為我們的餐廳和其他零售商生產芝士蛋糕工廠的芝士蛋糕和招牌烘焙產品。我們的垂直整​​合麵包店具有明顯的競爭優勢，我們的甜點推動了 The Cheesecake Factory 品牌的強烈親和力，正如我們行業領先的甜點銷售所證明的那樣。

Looking ahead, we will continue to leverage our competitive strength, including the scale of our business, our differentiated brands, best-in-class operators and balance sheet to drive shareholder value and market share gains. With that, I will now turn the call over to David Gordon to provide some additional details on our operations and marketing.

展望未來，我們將繼續利用我們的競爭優勢，包括我們的業務規模、差異化品牌、一流的營運商和資產負債表，來推動股東價值和市場份額的成長。現在，我將把電話轉給大衛·戈登，以提供有關我們運營和行銷的一些其他詳細資訊。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Since the start of the year, our operating team's training and development have been firmly centered on the fundamentals of the restaurant industry, great food, great service and great ambience as well as on reinforcing the operational standards that Cheesecake Factory has been built on. We believe these to be foundational for running successful restaurants and delivering consistent performance. This year's General Managers Conference content was designed with the same principles of focus in mind. The theme was cultivating excellence, and we held several informative programs, panels, speaker-led trainings and leadership seminars focused on hospitality, leadership, executing and performance management with the intent that our general managers take these insights and learnings back to their restaurants to improve operational execution, celebrate wins and further develop their people. As David alluded to earlier, we believe our increased focus on consistent execution and operational excellence is yielding positive results across multiple key areas. Let me just share a couple. First, we have seen measurable improvements in guest satisfaction. Our internally measured Net Promoter Score metrics across both the dine-in and off-premise are consistently exceeding pre-pandemic levels. In addition, our volume of reviews on third-party sites has not only increased since the start of the year, but the aggregate rating of these reviews has meaningfully improved and continued to trend incrementally more positive.

自今年年初以來，我們的營運團隊的培訓和發展一直牢牢圍繞著餐飲業的基礎、美味的食物、優質的服務和良好的氛圍，以及加強芝士蛋糕工廠賴以建立的運營標準。我們相信這些是經營成功餐廳和提供一致績效的基礎。今年總經理會議的內容在設計時也遵循了同樣的重點原則。主題是培養卓越，我們舉辦了多項資訊豐富的專案、小組討論、演講者主導的培訓和領導力研討會，重點關注酒店、領導力、執行和績效管理，目的是讓我們的總經理將這些見解和學習帶回他們的餐廳，以改善營運執行、慶祝勝利並進一步發展員工。正如大衛之前提到的，我們相信我們對一致執行和卓越營運的日益關注正在多個關鍵領域產生積極的成果。讓我分享幾個。首先，我們看到客人滿意度顯著提高。我們內部測量的堂食和店外淨推薦值指標始終超過大流行前的水平。此外，自今年年初以來，我們在第三方網站上的評論數量不僅有所增加，而且這些評論的整體評級也顯著提高，並繼續呈現出越來越積極的趨勢。

Second, our enviable staffing position continues to improve. Our industry-leading retention rates are now running above pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, our already high staff engagement scores improved significantly from a year ago. These improvements have supported the continued moderation in wage inflation, which is now trending below pre-pandemic levels. As David mentioned earlier, we believe these operational improvements contributed to both comparable sales and traffic outperforming the industry in the latest quarter.

其次，我們令人羨慕的人員配置狀況持續改善。我們行業領先的保留率現在高於大流行前的水平。此外，我們已經很高的員工敬業度得分比一年前有了顯著提高。這些改善支持了薪資通膨的持續放緩，目前薪資通膨趨勢低於疫情前的水平。正如大衛之前提到的，我們相信這些營運改善有助於在最近一個季度的可比銷售額和流量方面超越行業。

Now turning to sales trends. The Cheesecake Factory off-premise sales for the third quarter totaled 21% of sales, just below second quarter levels, consistent with historical seasonality of lower off-premise mix during the summer months, potentially indicating a return to more normal seasonal patterns. On-premise incident rates remained above 2019 levels with no material change to daypart mix. However, incident rates continue to normalize on a year-over-year basis as we lap the heightened spending from the prior year. North Italia third quarter comparable sales increased a solid 8% from the prior year and 28% versus 2019. The 4-wall margins for the adjusted mature North Italia locations was 12.5%, down from 15.4% in the previous quarter. North Italia margins were impacted by seasonally lower sales and higher utility costs, which were exacerbated by record high temperatures in the Southwest where North Italia has a higher level of concentration. We just rolled out a 3.7% menu price increase in October in part to support our margin objectives for this concept.

現在轉向銷售趨勢。 Cheesecake Factory 第三季的場外銷售額佔總銷售額的21%，略低於第二季的水平，與夏季月份場外銷售組合較低的歷史季節性相一致，這可能表明回歸到更正常的季節性模式。內部事故率仍高於 2019 年的水平，時段組合沒有重大變化。然而，隨著我們克服了前一年增加的支出，事故發生率繼續逐年正常化。 North Italia 第三季可比銷售額較上年同期穩定成長 8%，較 2019 年成長 28%。調整後的成熟 North Italia 地點的 4 牆利潤率為 12.5%，低於上一季的 15.4%。義大利北部的利潤率受到季節性銷售下降和公用事業成本上升的影響，而義大利北部集中度較高的西南部創紀錄的高溫又加劇了這種情況。我們剛剛在 10 月推出了 3.7% 的菜單價格上漲，部分原因是為了支持我們這個概念的利潤目標。

We remain excited about the potential growth trajectory of various concepts within FRC's portfolio, including culinary dropout. We just opened our newest culinary dropout in Charlotte, North Carolina to strong demand with average sales of $175,000 over the first couple of weeks. We now have 9 locations open, averaging over $200,000 per week so far this year. Culinary dropout strong cash-on-cash returns positions this concept as one of the more promising experiential concepts within FRC's portfolio given the attractive unit economics. We are testing the geographic portability and currently have plans to open another location this year in Atlanta as well as another 2 to 3 locations a year over the next 2 years across the Southeast, Texas and Southern California.

我們對 FRC 投資組合中各種概念（包括烹飪退出）的潛在成長軌跡仍然感到興奮。我們剛剛在北卡羅來納州夏洛特開設了最新的烹飪店，以滿足強勁的需求，前幾週的平均銷售額為 175,000 美元。目前，我們已開設 9 家門市，今年迄今平均每週收入超過 20 萬美元。考慮到具有吸引力的單位經濟效益，烹飪領域的強勁現金回報使這一概念成為 FRC 投資組合中最有前景的體驗概念之一。我們正在測試地理可移植性，目前計劃今年在亞特蘭大開設另一個地點，並在未來 2 年內每年在東南部、德克薩斯州和南加州開設另外 2 至 3 個地點。

Before I turn the call over to Matt, let me provide a brief update on our rewards program. As a reminder, our overarching objective is to leverage data analytics and insights to engage more effectively with our guests and drive incremental sales while maintaining our restaurant level margins. While we are just now entering our fifth month of the program following the national launch of Cheesecake Rewards on June 1, we continue to be encouraged by the level of member activity and engagement we are seeing. As we have previously stated, we're taking a very deliberate approach as we expand the program and therefore, do not anticipate seeing a measurable impact to sales for the first year or so. That being said, early demand continues to exceed our internal expectations and member satisfaction scores are over-indexing, reinforcing our belief that we are on the right path.

在將電話轉給馬特之前，請允許我簡要介紹我們的獎勵計劃。提醒一下，我們的首要目標是利用數據分析和洞察力更有效地與客人互動並推動增量銷售，同時保持餐廳水平的利潤。繼 6 月 1 日在全國範圍內推出 Cheesecake Rewards 後，我們剛剛進入該計劃的第五個月，但我們所看到的會員活動和參與度繼續令我們感到鼓舞。正如我們之前所說，我們在擴展該計劃時採取了非常審慎的方法，因此預計第一年左右的銷售不會產生明顯的影響。話雖如此，早期需求繼續超越我們的內部預期，會員滿意度評分也過高，這增強了我們的信念：我們正走在正確的道路上。

During the fourth quarter, we will be testing additional acquisition tactics and activation campaigns to better understand the key elements of our various strategies that resonate well with rewards members and are the most effective in increasing membership enrollment and engagement and driving frequency. And with that, let me turn the call over to Matt for our financial review.

在第四季度，我們將測試額外的獲取策略和激活活動，以更好地了解我們各種策略的關鍵要素，這些策略與獎勵會員產生良好共鳴，並且在增加會員註冊、參與度和駕駛頻率方面最有效。接下來，讓我將電話轉給馬特，以進行我們的財務審查。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Let me first provide a high-level recap of our third quarter results versus our expectations I outlined last quarter. Total revenues of $830.2 million increased 5.9% over last year despite finishing just under the low end of the range. Adjusted net income margin of 2.3% was also just short of the guidance we provided, predominantly driven by the lower sales. G&A and depreciation combined as a percent of sales were slightly better than expectations. And we returned $27.7 million to our shareholders in the form of dividends and stock repurchases. Over the past 12 months, our financial results have substantially stabilized, forming a foundation we believe we can build from. Over that period, our total revenues were $3.46 billion, with adjusted net income margin of 3.5% and adjusted EPS of $2.44.

讓我先對我們第三季的業績與我上季概述的預期進行簡要回顧。總收入為 8.302 億美元，比去年增長 5.9%，儘管最終收入略低於該範圍的低端。調整後淨利率為 2.3%，也略低於我們提供的指引，這主要是由於銷售額下降所致。一般管理費用和折舊總計佔銷售額的百分比略優於預期。我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還 2,770 萬美元。在過去 12 個月中，我們的財務表現已大幅穩定，為我們相信我們的發展奠定了基礎。在此期間，我們的總收入為 34.6 億美元，調整後淨利潤率為 3.5%，調整後每股收益為 2.44 美元。

Now turning to some more specific details around the quarter. Third quarter sales at the Cheesecake Factory restaurants were $628.1 million. Comparable sales increased 2.4% versus the prior year and 12.6% versus 2019. Sales for North Italia were $62.4 million, a 15% increase over prior year, supported by comparable sales growth of 8% versus prior year. Comparable sales versus 2019 increased 28%. Other FRC sales totaled $58.6 million, up 12% from the prior year, and sales per operating week were $121,900. Flower Child sales totaled $32.2 million, up 11% from the prior year, and sales per operating week were $80,000 and external bakery sales were $17.4 million during the third quarter of fiscal 2023.

現在轉向本季的一些更具體的細節。 Cheesecake Factory 餐廳第三季銷售額為 6.281 億美元。可比銷售額比上年增長 2.4%，比 2019 年增長 12.6%。北義大利的銷售額為 6,240 萬美元，比上年增長 15%，這得益於可比銷售額比上年增長 8%。與 2019 年相比，可比銷售額成長了 28%。其他 FRC 銷售額總計 5,860 萬美元，比上年增長 12%，每個營業週的銷售額為 121,900 美元。 2023 財年第三季度，Flower Child 銷售額總計 3,220 萬美元，比上年增長 11%，每個營業週銷售額為 8 萬美元，外部烘焙銷售額為 1,740 萬美元。

Now moving to year-over-year expense variance commentary. With the cumulative menu pricing we have implemented over the past 12 months to help offset inflation, we continue to realize measurable year-over-year improvement across several key line items in the P&L. Specifically, cost of sales decreased 170 basis points, primarily driven by higher menu pricing than commodity inflation. Labor decreased 110 basis points, predominantly driven by pricing leverage, improved staffing levels and slightly lower medical insurance expenses. Other operating expenses decreased 10 basis points, mostly driven by pricing leverage, lapping some elevated utilities and to-go costs and partially offset by marketing costs, including the rewards program launch. G&A increased 10 basis points and depreciation decreased 10 basis points as a percent of sales. Preopening costs were $6.7 million in the quarter compared to $4.3 million in the prior year period. We opened 2 Cheesecake Factory restaurants during the third quarter versus 3 restaurants in the third quarter of 2022. Higher preopening costs for the quarter were mostly driven by delays in opening dates and the mix of concepts. And in the third quarter, we recorded a net expense of $1.5 million primarily related to FRC acquisition-related expenses. Third quarter GAAP diluted net income per share was $0.37. Adjusted diluted net income per share was $0.39.

現在轉向同比費用差異評論。透過我們在過去 12 個月中實施的累積菜單定價來幫助抵消通貨膨脹，我們繼續在損益表中的幾個關鍵項目上實現可衡量的同比改善。具體而言，銷售成本下降了 170 個基點，主要是由於菜單定價高於商品通膨。勞動力下降了 110 個基點，主要是由於定價槓桿、人員配置水準改善和醫療保險費用略有下降。其他營運支出下降了 10 個基點，主要是由於定價槓桿、部分公用事業和外運成本上升所致，並部分被行銷成本（包括獎勵計劃的推出）所抵消。 G&A 佔銷售額的百分比上升了 10 個基點，折舊下降了 10 個基點。本季開業前成本為 670 萬美元，而去年同期為 430 萬美元。我們在第三季開設了 2 家 Cheesecake Factory 餐廳，而 2022 年第三季則開設了 3 家餐廳。本季開業前成本較高的主要原因是開業日期延遲和概念混合。第三季度，我們錄得 150 萬美元的淨支出，主要與 FRC 收購相關支出有關。第三季 GAAP 攤薄後每股淨利為 0.37 美元。調整後攤薄每股淨利為 0.39 美元。

Now turning to our balance sheet and capital allocation. The company ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $300.5 million, including a cash balance of about $64 million and approximately $236.5 million available on our revolving credit facility. Total debt outstanding was unchanged at $475 million in principal. CapEx totaled approximately $37 million during the quarter for new unit development and maintenance. During the quarter, we completed approximately $14.6 million in share repurchases and returned just over $13.1 million to shareholders via our dividend. While we will not be providing specific comparable sales and earnings guidance, we will provide our updated thoughts on our underlying assumptions for Q4 2023 and full year 2024 revenue and net income margin.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和資本配置。該公司本季末的可用流動資金總額約為 3.005 億美元，其中包括約 6,400 萬美元的現金餘額和約 2.365 億美元的循環信貸額度。未償債務總額本金維持 4.75 億美元不變。本季新設備開發和維護的資本支出總計約為 3,700 萬美元。本季度，我們完成了約 1,460 萬美元的股票回購，並透過股息向股東返還略高於 1,310 萬美元。雖然我們不會提供具體的可比較銷售和獲利指引，但我們將提供 2023 年第四季和 2024 年全年收入和淨利潤率基本假設的最新想法。

For Q4, based on our quarter-to-date performance, most recent trends and assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions, we anticipate total revenues to be between $870 million and $890 million. This essentially assumes a continuation of the trends since the end of September, which notably reflect a meaningful improvement versus 2019 sales levels as compared to our Q3 results. Next, at this time, we expect effective commodity inflation of low single digits for Q4 as our broad market basket continues to stabilize. We are modeling net total labor inflation of about mid-single digits when factoring in the latest trends in wage rates, which, similar to our commodities continues to normalize as well as channel mix and other components of labor. Based on these assumptions, we anticipate net income margin to be about 4.25% at the midpoint of the sales range. This reflects higher preopening expense to support our planned restaurant openings, which we expect to be approximately $10 million in the quarter.

對於第四季度，根據我們本季迄今的業績、最新趨勢，並假設沒有重大營運或消費者中斷，我們預計總收入將在 8.7 億美元至 8.9 億美元之間。這基本上假設自 9 月底以來的趨勢持續存在，這明顯反映出與我們第三季業績相比，2019 年銷售水準出現了有意義的改善。接下來，隨著我們廣泛的市場籃子繼續穩定，我們預計第四季度的有效大宗商品通膨將達到低個位數。當考慮到工資率的最新趨勢時，我們正在對大約中個位數的淨總勞動力通膨進行建模，與我們的大宗商品以及通路組合和勞動力的其他組成部分類似，工資率繼續正常化。基於這些假設，我們預期淨利潤率約為 4.25%，處於銷售範圍的中點。這反映了為支持我們計劃的餐廳開業而增加的開業前費用，我們預計本季約為 1000 萬美元。

With regard to development, as David Overton highlighted earlier, we plan to open as many as 16 new restaurants this year across our portfolio of concepts with as many as 9 openings in the fourth quarter. And we now anticipate approximately $150 million to $160 million in CapEx to support this year's and some of next year's unit development as well as required maintenance on our restaurants. Note the initial cash outlay for the third bakery production facility will be negligible in 2023.

關於發展，正如 David Overton 之前所強調的那樣，我們計劃今年在我們的概念組合中開設多達 16 家新餐廳，並在第四季度開設多達 9 家新餐廳。我們現在預計資本支出約為 1.5 億至 1.6 億美元，用於支持今年和明年的部分單位開發以及餐廳所需的維護。請注意，到 2023 年，第三個烘焙生產設施的初始現金支出將可以忽略不計。

Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, as previously mentioned, the macroeconomic backdrop continues to be uncertain. However, we want to provide some initial perspective for next year. Based on our year-to-date performance, more recent trends and assuming no material operating or consumer disruptions, we anticipate total revenues for fiscal 2024 to be between approximately $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion. Total inflation across our commodity baskets and total labor is currently estimated to be in the low to mid-single-digit range. Based on these assumptions, we anticipate net income margin to be approximately 4% to 4.5%. With regard to development, as David stated earlier, our expectations for 2024 are to take another measurable step towards our objective of 7% annual unit growth. Given the dynamic environment, we continue to face, we are planning to provide additional details on our next earnings call in February. And we would anticipate approximately $175 million to $200 million in CapEx, including required maintenance on our restaurants. This assumes an evenly distributed mix of restaurant openings across the Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child and FRC concepts.

展望 2024 財年，如前所述，宏觀經濟背景仍存在不確定性。然而，我們希望為明年提供一些初步的看法。根據我們今年迄今為止的業績、最新趨勢，並假設沒有重大營運或消費者中斷，我們預計 2024 財年的總收入約為 36 億美元至 37 億美元。目前，我們的商品籃子和勞動力總通膨率估計處於中低個位數範圍內。基於這些假設，我們預期淨利率約為4%至4.5%。關於發展，正如 David 之前所說，我們對 2024 年的期望是朝著年度銷售成長 7% 的目標再邁出可衡量的一步。鑑於我們繼續面臨的動態環境，我們計劃在二月份的下一次財報電話會議上提供更多詳細資訊。我們預計資本支出約為 1.75 億至 2 億美元，其中包括餐廳所需的維護。假設 Cheesecake Factory、North Italia、Flower Child 和 FRC 概念餐廳的開業數量均勻分佈。

Additionally, the range includes our preliminary estimate for the initial phase of development for the third bakery production facility. As we are still in the early stages of this development, I will discuss our initial thoughts, and we will provide additional detail in the coming quarters as the project plans materialize. At this time, we do not expect to incur significant outlays for this project in 2023 or 2024 as we anticipate most of the CapEx to come in 2025 and 2026 in preparation of opening a facility in early 2027. To reiterate David's earlier remarks, we are pleased to be moving forward with this differentiated capital investment, which we believe will support the future growth of the bakery and enhance our long-term profitability.

此外，該範圍還包括我們對第三個烘焙生產設施的初始開發階段的初步估計。由於我們仍處於開發的早期階段，我將討論我們的初步想法，並且隨著專案計劃的落實，我們將在未來幾季提供更多細節。目前，我們預計 2023 年或 2024 年該項目不會產生大量支出，因為我們預計大部分資本支出將在 2025 年和 2026 年進行，為 2027 年初開設設施做準備。重申 David 之前的言論，我們很高興推動這項差異化的資本投資，我們相信這將支持麵包店的未來成長並提高我們的長期獲利能力。

In closing, we have made significant financial and operational progress over the past 4 quarters coming out of not only the pandemic but unprecedented supply chain and labor challenges and the highest level of inflation in 50 years. Our efforts have resulted in a solid position from which we can continue our trajectory of sales growth and margin expansion moving forward. Specifically, the return of predictability to the core operating model and stabilizing guest traffic even inclusive of the macro headwinds and some degree of consumers returning to 2019 behaviors of the lofty spending patterns of the past couple of years, gives us confidence in our ability to make meaningful additional steps in 2024 towards our longer-term goals in the key areas of value creation, growing comparable restaurant sales, expanding restaurant operating margins and accelerating accretive unit growth. And with that said, we'll take your questions.

最後，我們在過去 4 個季度取得了重大的財務和營運進展，不僅克服了大流行病，還克服了前所未有的供應鏈和勞動力挑戰以及 50 年來最高水準的通貨膨脹。我們的努力為我們奠定了堅實的基礎，使我們能夠繼續保持銷售成長和利潤擴張的軌跡。具體而言，核心營運模式的可預測性回歸以及客流量的穩定（甚至包括宏觀不利因素）以及一定程度的消費者在2019 年回歸過去幾年的高額消費模式行為，讓我們對自己的能力充滿信心。2024 年，我們將採取有意義的額外措施，實現我們在價值創造、增加可比餐廳銷售額、擴大餐廳營業利潤和加速單位增長等關鍵領域的長期目標。話雖如此，我們將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Andry Barish with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Andry Barish 與 Jefferies 的線路。

Just wanted to clarify some of the commentary on the same-store sales improving sequentially. Was that referring to during the quarter, the monthly progress? Or as you looked at the full 3Q versus 2Q, I was just a little confused there. And then continuing kind of into October, as you mentioned, with the quarter-to-date assumptions driving your 4Q estimate?

只是想澄清一些關於同店銷售額連續改善的評論。這是指該季度、每月的進度嗎？或者當你查看完整的第三季與第二季時，我只是有點困惑。然後繼續到 10 月份，正如您所提到的，季度至今的假設推動了您對第四季度的估計？

Sure, Andy. This is Matt. to be hopefully clear, the third quarter followed roughly the industry trends, albeit better in every period than the indices that most people track, both in terms of comp and I think meaningfully in terms of traffic. The traffic was pretty darn stable, but it was sequentially down slightly, right, from July to August to September. And then what we're referring to is really from sort of the end of September through the current time period, those trends have seen a measurable improvement relatively. So I think that's also relatively consistent with what you may have heard in the industry as well. But again, I think outpacing.

當然，安迪。這是馬特。希望澄清的是，第三季大致遵循了行業趨勢，儘管在每個時期都比大多數人追蹤的指數更好，無論是在比較方面還是在流量方面我認為都有意義。流量非常穩定，但從七月到八月再到九月，流量略有下降，對吧。我們所說的實際上是從 9 月底到當前時間段內，這些趨勢相對有了可衡量的改善。所以我認為這也與您在業界聽到的情況相對一致。但我再次認為超越。

Got you. Helpful. And then just one other on wage inflation. I think, again, just some clarification on noting it's moving below pre-pandemic levels and then your guide, I think, incorporates kind of low to mid-single digits. How does the move to $20 in California next spring kind of factor into that thinking? And is that right that number is below kind of the 2018, 2019 levels, I guess?

明白你了。有幫助。然後是另一個關於工資通膨的問題。我想，再次澄清一下，注意到它正在低於大流行前的水平，然後我認為你的指南包含了低到中個位數。明年春天加州漲到 20 美元是如何影響這種想法的？我猜這個數字是否低於 2018 年、2019 年的水準？

Yes, Andy, this is Matt again. That is correct. Like the actual inflation in average wages is running below sort of that whole time period, 3, 4 years leading up to the pandemic. Obviously, a lot of that was also driven by government-mandated pressures as you allude to the California coming legislation. And even inclusive of that, I would say the expectations for wages remains relatively stable and probably at or below pandemic. And I think we'll evaluate the market dynamics that play out. Obviously, none of our restaurants will be included in that wage mandate. But obviously, there could be some ripple effect. Today, in the urban areas, we tend to see that many of the QSR locations are already paying in that range. and people are making choices based on that. Certainly, more in the deep suburbs, there's probably going to be some increases, but we have fewer restaurants there. So I think we'll look at it holistically and then see what makes sense. And if we have to address that as part of our overall inflation basket, we'll certainly have to consider that with respect to pricing decisions.

是的，安迪，這又是馬特。那是對的。就像平均薪資的實際通膨率低於整個時期，也就是疫情大流行前的三、四年。顯然，當你提到加州即將出台的立法時，其中很大一部分也是由政府施加的壓力所推動的。即使包括這一點，我想說，工資預期仍然相對穩定，可能等於或低於大流行病水平。我認為我們將評估正在發生的市場動態。顯然，我們的任何一家餐廳都不會被納入該薪資規定範圍內。但顯然，這可能會產生一些連鎖反應。如今，在城市地區，我們往往會看到許多快餐店的支付價格已經在這個範圍內。人們正在基於此做出選擇。當然，在更遠的郊區，價格可能會增加，但那裡的餐廳較少。所以我認為我們會從整體上看待它，然後看看什麼是有意義的。如果我們必須將其作為整體通膨籃子的一部分來解決，那麼我們肯定必須在定價決策方面考慮這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Sharon Zackfia with William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自莎朗·扎克菲亞和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

I guess 2 questions. Just quickly, if you could give us kind of price mix traffic for the quarter, that would be helpful. And then secondarily, on development, I mean, it sounds like you want to defer to give us number of what's kind of embedded in that initial look at '24, and I know it's a wide range, but can you talk about kind of what you're doing internally to kind of, I guess, better buffer the outlook on development that is given versus what you were going to achieve in kind of this difficult to execute environment where permitting and so many other things seem to be much more challenging than 2019.

我猜有2個問題。很快，如果您能為我們提供該季度的價格組合流量，那將會很有幫助。其次，關於開發，我的意思是，聽起來您想推遲向我們提供 24 年最初的預覽中嵌入的內容的數量，我知道範圍很廣，但您能談談具體內容嗎？我想，你在內部所做的事情是為了更好地緩衝所給出的發展前景，而不是在這種難以執行的環境中要實現的目標，在這種環境中，許可和許多其他事情似乎比其他事情更具挑戰性2019.

Sure, Sharon. Good questions, both of them. This is Matt. I'll take the first, and then David Gordon can touch on the development side. So specifically, pricing was at 9.5%, mix was a negative 6.1% and then traffic was a negative 1.0%. So the traffic piece represented a pretty good improvement over the last quarter. And I think about 200 basis points better than what we saw in the industry and pretty stable. As I noted in my response to Andy, it was very, very stable throughout the quarter. So that gives us a good baseline. And David Gordon will touch base on the development.

當然，莎倫。兩個問題都問得好。這是馬特。我會選擇第一個，然後大衛戈登可以談談開發方面。具體來說，定價為 9.5%，混合為負 6.1%，然後流量為負 1.0%。因此，流量部分較上季有了相當大的改善。我認為比我們在行業中看到的要好大約 200 個基點，而且相當穩定。正如我在給安迪的回覆中指出的那樣，整個季度都非常非常穩定。這給了我們一個很好的基線。大衛·戈登將談及進展。

Sharon, this is David. I think as we talked about previously, a lot of the earlier COVID issues on development were more around supply chain and getting heavy large pieces of equipment into the restaurants, et cetera. That really has abated. And as you said, most of the issues today are more around permitting and dealing with local municipalities and their pace is not what it once was, a lot of new people and new positions. So what we try to do is increase our funnel and have more sites in the pipeline to be able to maneuver around that and hit the targets that we are planning to set for next year. I think we feel good about what we said to continue towards that path to 7% unit growth, and we have a good funnel for next year. And hopefully, the municipalities will get a little bit better, and we'll see permitting start to increase at a little bit faster pace because at this point, that's really the only thing that's slowing us down. I think this was a good business decision for us to decide to push some of these to Q1 to ensure that we hit the time line, but also that operationally, they're able to open at a good cadence, don't put too much negative pressure on the business and that we're really opening at a cadence that's best for the operators.

莎倫，這是大衛。我認為正如我們之前談到的，許多早期的新冠疫情發展問題更多地圍繞著供應鏈以及將重型大型設備運送到餐廳等方面。這確實有所減弱。正如你所說，今天的大多數問題更多地圍繞著許可和與當地市政當局打交道，他們的步伐已經不像以前那樣了，有很多新人和新職位。因此，我們試圖做的是擴大我們的漏斗，並在管道中擁有更多站點，以便能夠圍繞這一點進行操作並實現我們計劃明年設定的目標。我認為我們對我們所說的繼續朝著 7% 單位增長的道路感到滿意，並且我們明年有一個良好的漏斗。希望各市政當局會變得更好一點，我們會看到許可證開始以更快的速度增加，因為在這一點上，這確實是唯一讓我們放慢腳步的事情。我認為這對我們來說是一個很好的商業決策，決定將其中一些項目推遲到第一季度，以確保我們按時完成任務，而且在操作上，他們能夠以良好的節奏開放，不要投入太多對業務造成負面壓力，而且我們確實以對運營商最有利的節奏開業。

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Long with Stephens.

你的下一個問題來自約書亞·朗和史蒂芬斯的對話。

Matt, curious as a follow-up on that pricing comment, it was 9.5% price in the quarter and then what appears to be some stabilization on the food cost and labor cost side of the equation. Curious if you could talk about your forward pricing plans and kind of how you think about maybe the comp construct from a pricing perspective as we go forward into 4Q and in 1Q?

馬特（Matt）很好奇，作為該定價評論的後續行動，該季度的價格為 9.5%，然後食品成本和勞動力成本方面似乎有所穩定。好奇您能否談談您的遠期定價計劃，以及當我們進入第四季度和第一季時，您如何從定價角度考慮補償結構？

Sure, Josh. I think it is relevant. And certainly, as we see inflation stabilizing, our objective is to return to a more normal sort of level and cadence of the pricing that we take, which is typically 2x a year, 1.5% to 2% each time. So notably, in the third quarter for Cheesecake Factory, we took 2%, but that was lapping over a I believe, 4.25%. And so on a run rate basis, we dropped off 2.25 points. And then keep in mind, for the fourth quarter, we're going to lap the incremental catch-up that we did at the beginning of December. So the weighted average for the fourth quarter, [Etienne], what is...

當然，喬許。我認為這是相關的。當然，隨著我們看到通膨趨於穩定，我們的目標是恢復到更正常的定價水平和節奏，通常是每年兩次，每次 1.5% 到 2%。值得注意的是，在第三季度，Cheesecake Factory 的份額為 2%，但我相信這已經超過了 4.25%。因此，在運行率的基礎上，我們下降了 2.25 個百分點。然後請記住，在第四季度，我們將追趕 12 月初的增量。那麼第四季的加權平均值，[艾蒂安]，是…

7% to 7.5%.

7％至7.5％。

Okay. 7% to 7.5%. And then going into next year, it's going to be more in the range of like 4%, right? And then we'll see how all the pieces come together, but it feels like that's going to be in a more normal range at that point. And again, our objective is really only to take enough pricing to offset inflation.

好的。 7％至7.5％。然後進入明年，這個數字會在 4% 左右，對嗎？然後我們會看到所有的部分是如何組合在一起的，但感覺那時會處於更正常的範圍內。再說一次，我們的目標實際上只是採取足夠的定價來抵消通貨膨脹。

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then as a follow-up, could appreciate the volatility in the underlying industry trends. It seems like that's normalize to your point and from what we're hearing from peers, which is encouraging. But curious, as you think about just the operational muscles and execution capabilities you and your team have, can you talk a little bit more about just how the volatility played out through the quarter in terms of restaurant-level margins. I mean, that's been an overarching goal of yours as you execute against it. But just curious what can you adjust or make a point at improving upon despite the volatile operating environment that maybe just gets captured in the consolidated number that we see. I mean you mentioned traffic was relatively steady. That helps out at all? Just looking for some additional color there.

知道了。這很有幫助。我很感激。然後作為後續行動，可以了解潛在產業趨勢的波動性。從您的觀點以及我們從同行那裡聽到的情況來看，這似乎是正常的，這是令人鼓舞的。但好奇的是，當您考慮您和您的團隊擁有的營運能力和執行能力時，您能否多談談本季餐廳利潤率的波動性如何影響。我的意思是，當你執行它時，這一直是你的首要目標。但只是好奇，儘管營運環境不穩定，但您可以調整或改進哪些方面，這可能只是在我們看到的綜合數字中得到體現。我的意思是你提到流量相對穩定。這樣有幫助嗎？只是在那裡尋找一些額外的顏色。

Yes. That's an interesting question, and I think it's actually really helpful to understand kind of the consistency of the business. I mean I think I may have alluded to this before, but week-to-week, the P&L the pro forma from the Cheesecake Factory and all of our concepts looks like it's supposed to, right? All of the elements of that are much more predictable, whether the revenue lines are up or down, the level of flow-through from the concept is at or better than we would have expected it to be. As noted, the wage inflation continues to run slightly better than planned. The commodities that we've been able to secure with our supply chain continue to run slightly better than planned. So we monitor all of that week to week. And that volatility has significantly decreased, right? So all of those trends point to the ability to manage the business better. We are seeing overtime and training return back to pre-pandemic levels or slightly better. So those are underpinnings of financial progress and improvements. And I think sort of notably, if you think about the third quarter and the revenue piece, it was probably 1% to 2% of mix that was the gap. We had anticipated a return to normalization. It was slightly more than anticipated, but not material. And really the difference in the profitability is just a flow-through on that. We've adjusted our Q4 outlook for that appropriately. And yet if you do the math, we're probably right in line with where we thought we would be from a profitability standpoint. So I think that really speaks to the levers that we're pulling and the ability to execute at these sales levels and still get to the profit margin targets that we're expecting. Q4, we're expecting that our profit margins relative to year-over-year are going to expand. We would expect Q1 to expand on top of that. So the trajectory reflects that underlying consistency in operational execution quarter-to-quarter.

是的。這是一個有趣的問題，我認為了解業務的一致性實際上非常有幫助。我的意思是，我想我之前可能已經提到過這一點，但是每週，芝士蛋糕工廠的損益表和我們所有的概念看起來都應該如此，對吧？所有這些要素都更可預測，無論收入線是上升還是下降，概念的流量水準都達到或優於我們的預期。如前所述，薪資通膨繼續略好於計劃。我們透過供應鏈確保的商品運作狀況持續略好於計畫。所以我們每週都會監控這一切。而且波動性已顯著降低，對吧？因此，所有這些趨勢都表明更好地管理業務的能力。我們看到加班和訓練恢復到疫情前的水平或稍好一些。因此，這些是財務進步和改進的基礎。我認為值得注意的是，如果你考慮第三季和收入部分，差距可能是混合比例的 1% 到 2%。我們原本預計會恢復正常化。這比預期略多，但並不重要。事實上，獲利能力的差異只是其中的一個體現。我們已為此適當調整了第四季的前景。然而，如果你算一下，從獲利能力的角度來看，我們可能與我們認為的情況相符。因此，我認為這確實說明了我們正在使用的槓桿以及在這些銷售水平上執行的能力，並且仍然達到我們預期的利潤率目標。第四季度，我們預計我們的利潤率將年比將會擴大。我們預計第一季將在此基礎上擴大。因此，該軌跡反映了季度與季度營運執行的基本一致性。

Your next question comes from the line of Jon Tower with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自喬恩·塔爾（Jon Tower）與花旗銀行的對話。

Great. And maybe just following up on the mix conversation. Curious if you can elaborate a little bit more on what's going on there. I believe it might have to do a little bit with the delivery business relative to the on-premise business shifting around a little bit. But if you could elaborate and then I've got a follow-up as well.

偉大的。也許只是跟進混合對話。很好奇您能否詳細說明那裡發生的事情。我認為這可能與相對於本地業務的交付業務的一些變化有關。但如果你能詳細說明一下，我也會有後續行動。

Sure, Jon, it's Matt. About 2%, I mean, give or take, is associated with the to-go business, which continues to be stable, but down slightly on a mix percentage compared to last year. And the other thing that we're seeing, I think, is very consistent with the others in the industry. Compared to last year, just slightly less alcohol attachment, maybe a little bit less appetizer attachment but compared to 2019, it's still at or above every one of the categories we look at. And I think also from a daypart perspective and a mix of check, it's very consistent, right? So those attributes are sort of the guest performance works and feels a lot like 2019 to us.

當然，喬恩，是馬特。我的意思是，無論給予還是接受，大約 2% 與外賣業務相關，該業務繼續保持穩定，但與去年相比，混合百分比略有下降。我認為，我們看到的另一件事與業內其他人非常一致。與去年相比，酒精含量略少，開胃菜的含量可能略少，但與 2019 年相比，它仍然處於或高於我們所關注的每個類別。我認為從時段的角度和檢查的組合來看，它非常一致，對吧？所以這些屬性有點像客座表演作品，對我們來說感覺很像 2019 年。

Got it. Okay. And then just going back to the discussion earlier regarding loyalty and the plans for, I believe, there's some plans you have to increase customer acquisition strategies in the fourth quarter here. Just curious if you could delve a little bit deeper into that. Are you anticipating perhaps getting a little bit more promotional or giving away more sizes of Cheesecake to incent people to jump into the program. I'm just curious to hear how you're thinking about going about getting folks into the program.

知道了。好的。然後回到之前關於忠誠度和計劃的討論，我相信，您必須制定一些計劃來增加第四季度的客戶獲取策略。只是好奇您是否可以更深入地研究這一點。您是否期望得到更多的促銷或贈送更多尺寸的起司蛋糕來激勵人們加入該計劃。我只是想知道您如何考慮讓人們加入該計劃。

Sure, Jon. This is David. This is David Gordon. Well, the good news is when it comes to acquisition, we really have seen a high level of activity and guests are very encouraged to join the program to begin with. Just as a reminder, it's made up of published offers, which everybody gets when they join and that would be access to reservations, a slice, as you mentioned, a complementary slice on their birthday. And originally, there was a complementary slice upon signing up. We ended that part of the promotion at Labor Day. And then there's unpublished offers, and that's a little bit more about what you're talking about as we look at the fourth quarter and doing some segmentation and trying to understand if we can drive guest behaviors to certain dayparts, certain days of the week with potential promotion. And that might be a slice of Cheesecake on a potential order basket of a certain size or it could be a small discount for a lunch offering. Those are all the things we're going to test in Q4 and measure their effectiveness to ensure that as we work towards next year that we're spending our marketing dollars in a very targeted way and getting the best ROI in each one of those promotions.

當然，喬恩。這是大衛。這是大衛·戈登。好消息是，在收購方面，我們確實看到了高水準的活動，並且非常鼓勵客人加入該計劃。提醒一下，它由已發布的優惠組成，每個人在加入時都會獲得這些優惠，並且可以進行預訂，正如您所提到的，在生日時可以補充一塊。最初，註冊時有一個補充部分。我們在勞動節結束了這部分促銷活動。然後還有未發布的優惠，這更多是關於您所談論的內容，因為我們著眼於第四季度並進行了一些細分，並試圖了解我們是否可以將客人行為驅動到某些時段、一周中的某些日子潛在的晉升。這可能是一定大小的潛在訂單籃中的一片起司蛋糕，也可能是午餐的小折扣。這些是我們將在第四季度測試並衡量其有效性的所有內容，以確保在我們明年努力時，我們以非常有針對性的方式花費行銷資金，並在每項促銷活動中獲得最佳投資回報率。

I know it's early in the program, but can you comment on any sort of changes in frequency for the customers that have jumped into the program so far?

我知道現在還處於該計劃的早期階段，但是您能否評論一下到目前為止已加入該計劃的客戶的頻率變化？

We haven't talked about any of those numbers yet. I think that we feel good on continuing to expand the program. I think that's something. And we're also very happy. We were able to measure NPS sentiment for rewards members versus non-reward members. And we see between a 10% to 20% higher score in overall NPS on rewards members. So that would lead to promising results of guests wanting to come back, feeling good about the hospitality and the service they're getting as a rewards member to hopefully drive incrementality there as well.

我們還沒有討論過這些數字。我認為我們對繼續擴大該計劃感到滿意。我認為這是一些事情。我們也很高興。我們能夠衡量獎勵會員與非獎勵會員的 NPS 情緒。我們發現獎勵會員的整體 NPS 分數提高了 10% 到 20%。因此，這將帶來希望回來的客人的良好結果，並對他們作為獎勵會員所獲得的款待和服務感到滿意，並有望推動那裡的增量。

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Silberman with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lauren Silberman。

I wanted to follow up on the commentary regarding the improvement in trend exiting September and into October relative to '19. What do you think is driving the improvement?

我想跟進有關 9 月和 10 月相對於 19 年趨勢改善的評論。您認為是什麼推動了這種改進？

Lauren, this is Matt. I think some of it has to do with seasonality. We touched on that in the script. Others have commented on that. I do think that sort of the mix of on-premise off-premise has shifted slightly, right? So you see seasonally the summer is a little bit lower in off-prem, that comes back in the fall. So I think you get a little bit of a pickup there. I think school calendars have shifted, right? I mean we actually saw this trend starting to develop pre-pandemic. I mean this sounds cliche, but everybody my age remembers going back to school the day after Labor Day. And today, I think half the country goes back on August 1. So I really think a lot of what you're seeing now is with schools back to normal, whatever their schedules are with the off-premise on-premise, all of those factors, and frankly, I think too we're executing at a high level. I mean I think some of it is just our performance. As David Gordon touched on, we have a very strong NPS. Our operators are fully staffed. So I think we're able to turn tables. I think we're able to do the things that we need to do. And it's incrementally a couple of percent makes a difference. But I think those are the 2 things that I would call out.

勞倫，這是馬特。我認為其中一些與季節性有關。我們在劇本中談到了這一點。其他人對此發表了評論。我確實認為這種內部部署和外部部署的混合已經發生了輕微的變化，對嗎？因此，您會發現，從季節性角度來看，夏季場外的溫度較低，但會在秋季恢復。所以我認為你在那裡得到了一些幫助。我認為學校日曆已經改變了，對嗎？我的意思是，我們實際上看到這種趨勢在大流行前就開始發展。我的意思是，這聽起來很陳腔濫調，但我這個年紀的每個人都記得在勞動節後的第二天回到學校。今天，我認為全國有一半的人會在 8 月 1 日返校。所以我真的認為你現在看到的很多情況都是學校恢復正常，無論他們的日程安排如何，校外校內校內，所有這些坦率地說，我也認為我們的執行程度很高。我的意思是，我認為其中一些只是我們的表現。正如大衛·戈登所說，我們有非常強大的淨推薦值。我們的操作人員配備齊全。所以我認為我們能夠扭轉局面。我認為我們能夠做我們需要做的事情。逐漸增加幾個百分點就會產生影響。但我認為這是我要指出的兩件事。

That's helpful. And then just shifting to margins, as I always visit how you're thinking about recapturing restaurant margins as we think to 2024, what are you embedding for restaurant margin relative to pre-COVID and any puts and takes we should consider?

這很有幫助。然後轉向利潤率，因為我總是會問你們如何考慮到2024 年重新奪回餐廳利潤率，相對於新冠疫情之前，你們對餐廳利潤率的嵌入是什麼，以及我們應該考慮的任何看跌期權和賣出選擇權？

Yes. As we've said, our objective is to get Cheesecake Factory back to 2019 to begin with. We obviously have had some headwinds in that journey outside of our 4 walls. And I think we've made very good pragmatic long-term decisions to recapture it over time rather than all at once. I feel like the journey that we're on will get us there, right? And our objective is to continue to expand the 4-wall margins. As I said, I think Q4 over Q4 is going to be better. I think Q1 over Q1 is better. And so continuing that progression will get us there. It's hard to put a specific time frame on it. Obviously, we gave a range of net income. So it implies there was potentially a range of 4-wall margin performance. But that remains, I think, a very achievable near-term goal for Cheesecake Factory.

是的。正如我們所說，我們的目標是讓 Cheesecake Factory 回到 2019 年。顯然，我們在四面牆之外的旅程中遇到了一些阻力。我認為我們已經做出了非常務實的長期決定，隨著時間的推移而不是一次性奪回它。我覺得我們正在進行的旅程將會到達那裡，對嗎？我們的目標是繼續擴大四壁利潤。正如我所說，我認為第四季會比第四季更好。我認為 Q1 比 Q1 更好。因此，繼續這一進步將使我們實現這一目標。很難為其設定一個具體的時間範圍。顯然，我們給了一個淨收入範圍。因此，這意味著可能存在一定範圍的 4 牆裕度表現。但我認為，這對 Cheesecake Factory 來說仍然是一個非常可實現的近期目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Mullan with Piper Sandler.

你的下一個問題來自 Brian Mullan 和 Piper Sandler 的對話。

Just another one on restaurant margins, but just at North Italia. On the last call, you talked about seeing an opportunity to drive improvements there. Can you just remind us what some of those initiatives are and where you are in that process? I know in the prepared remarks, I think you just referenced taking price, but anything on the operations side to consider as well?

這只是餐廳邊緣的另一家餐廳，但就在義大利北部。在上次通話中，您談到看到了推動改進的機會。您能否提醒我們其中一些舉措是什麼以及您在過程中處於什麼階段？我知道在準備好的評論中，我認為您只是提到了定價，但是營運方面還有什麼需要考慮的嗎？

Sure, Brian. This is Matt. I think a couple of things that we're really focused on. I mean you did note price for us that is part of that plan. And we look at being about 1 cycle behind Cheesecake, right? So this would probably be the last notable price increase. And certainly, we think that's actually going to close the gap in totality. But aside from that, we remain focused on a couple of key areas operationally. One of those being food efficiencies, so that's an area that Cheesecake Factory best practices and systems have been deployed over time to North Italia, and we see a really good opportunity to lower food costs over time by bringing those standards up to where the Cheesecake Factory is and implementing the systems that we have there.

當然，布萊恩。這是馬特。我認為有幾件事是我們真正關注的。我的意思是，您確實為我們記下了價格，這是該計劃的一部分。我們看到大約落後 Cheesecake 1 個週期，對吧？因此，這可能是最後一次顯著的價格上漲。當然，我們認為這實際上會縮小整體差距。但除此之外，我們仍然專注於幾個關鍵的營運領域。其中之一是食品效率，因此芝士蛋糕工廠的最佳實踐和系統已經在意大利北部部署了一段時間，我們看到了一個非常好的機會，通過將這些標準提高到芝士蛋糕工廠的水平，隨著時間的推移降低食品成本是並實施我們在那裡擁有的系統。

The second one that we're focused on is really bringing new restaurants up to speed over time, a little bit more faster, right? So the mature margin is one thing, but if you can bring the early stages of the restaurants up faster, it sets up for success in the longer term as well. And the third one is really doing a lot of side-by-side restaurant comparisons. Now that the portfolio or the fleet, if you will, is in the low 30s for North, we have a much better idea of looking at sales volumes and geographies and understanding what the appropriate operating metrics can be and comparing those and our field leadership team is really laser-focused on the ability to do that.

我們關注的第二個問題是隨著時間的推移，真正讓新餐廳加快步伐，更快一點，對嗎？因此，成熟的利潤率是一回事，但如果你能讓餐廳的早期階段更快地發展起來，它也為長期的成功奠定了基礎。第三個確實是進行了大量的並排餐廳比較。現在，如果您願意的話，North 的投資組合或機隊處於 30 多歲左右，我們可以更好地了解銷量和地理位置，了解適當的營運指標，並將這些指標與我們的現場領導團隊進行比較真正專注於做到這一點的能力。

And I think actually a fourth one that I'd mention is not direct, but it's an indirect margin driver, which is sales. If you look at the North comp store sales, they remain exceptionally strong. We're growing traffic. We're growing our off-premise business. So there's really no better way to improve margins than to grow sales and that may go without saying, but I just wanted to add it on.

我認為實際上我提到的第四個因素不是直接的，而是間接的利潤驅動因素，即銷售。如果你看看北比較商店的銷售情況，你會發現它們仍然異常強勁。我們正在增加流量。我們正在發展我們的場外業務。因此，確實沒有比增加銷售額更好的提高利潤率的方法了，這可能是不言而喻的，但我只是想補充一下。

Brian, this is David. I would just add 2 things to Matt's terrific answer there. One is that we continue to leverage our scale of supply chain and look for opportunities to purchase products that perhaps are in our broader basket that we can also use in North Italia, while still keeping it unique and special, and we've had some good gains there. And just back to the sales point, I think the team has done a terrific job on understanding and maximizing reservations for sales. And part of that has been the expertise that Cheesecake has brought over the past 4 years to North and our ability to ensure that we're not just turning tables fast, but we're maximizing the tables that are in the restaurants as much as we can to get the most productivity out of them.

布萊恩，這是大衛。我只想在馬特的精彩回答中添加兩點。一是我們繼續利用我們的供應鏈規模，尋找機會購買可能屬於我們更廣泛的籃子的產品，這些產品我們也可以在意大利北部使用，同時仍然保持其獨特性和特殊性，我們已經有了一些好的產品那裡有收穫。回到銷售點，我認為團隊在理解和最大化銷售預訂方面做得非常出色。其中一部分是 Cheesecake 在過去 4 年為 North 帶來的專業知識，以及我們確保我們不僅能快速翻桌，而且能最大限度地利用餐廳的餐桌的能力。可以從他們身上獲得最大的生產力。

So I guess, Brian, the answer is we're doing a lot, and we have high expectations for the concept going forward.

所以我想，布萊恩，答案是我們正在做很多事情，並且我們對未來的概念抱有很高的期望。

And maybe could segue, just Flower Child. Is the plan still to bring this brand under the Cheesecake Factory umbrella by the end of the year? And if yes, can you talk about some of the benefits of doing that? And do you expect that to impact the growth trajectory? And maybe over what time period would we start to see that accelerate?

也許可以繼續，只是花童。年底前是否仍計劃將品牌納入 Cheesecake Factory 旗下？如果是的話，您能談談這樣做的一些好處嗎？您預計這會影響成長軌跡嗎？也許在什麼時間內我們會開始看到這種加速？

Sure, Brian. We are on track with Flower Child, bringing that fully under our umbrella for this year. We're looking forward to accelerating the pace of openings next year. We would anticipate over time that it too would be a 20% grower year-over-year. The portability of the concept continues to be very promising. It's doing well in new markets, very strong infrastructure and the teams there that's very focused on developing management to enable that growth. And I think we anticipate some of the same scale advantages that we have with the other concepts with Flower Child, whether that's supply chain, some of our HR infrastructure, et cetera. But thus far, we've seen good availability of sites. Landlords are excited about the concept. We continue to feel it's differentiated in its space. And certainly, the guest demand and the traffic has been fantastic.

當然，布萊恩。我們正在與《Flower Child》合作，今年將其完全納入我們的保護範圍。我們期待明年加快開業步伐。我們預計隨著時間的推移，它也將同比增長 20%。這個概念的可移植性仍然非常有前途。它在新市場、非常強大的基礎設施以及非常注重發展管理以實現成長的團隊中表現良好。我認為我們預計與 Flower Child 的其他概念具有相同的規模優勢，無論是供應鏈、我們的一些人力資源基礎設施等等。但到目前為止，我們已經看到網站的可用性良好。房東們對這個概念感到興奮。我們仍然覺得它在空間上與眾不同。當然，客人的需求和客流量都非常好。

Brian, just one piece on that. This is Matt. In addition to a key initiative for us for this year, although we don't carve out the segment yet for Flower Child, we are on track to get to the margin target that we need to be at to make it a growth vehicle, which is in that mid-teens level. So we feel really good overall about the trajectory of Flower Child.

布萊恩，只是其中的一篇。這是馬特。除了我們今年的一項關鍵舉措之外，儘管我們尚未為 Flower Child 開闢該細分市場，但我們有望實現使其成為成長工具所需的利潤率目標，這處於十幾歲左右的水平。所以我們對《Flower Child》的發展軌跡整體感覺非常好。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Farmer with Gordon Haskett.

你的下一個問題來自傑夫·法默（Jeff Farmer）和戈登·哈斯克特（Gordon Haskett）的對話。

You guys did touch on it, but when it comes to menu price increases in 2024, what you guys are contemplating, how are you looking at the trade-off between either protecting or growing margin and any potential traffic headwinds that could come with that pricing?

你們確實談到了這個問題，但是當談到 2024 年菜單價格上漲時，你們正在考慮什麼，你們如何看待保護或增加利潤與該定價可能帶來的任何潛在流量阻力之間的權衡？

Jeff, it's Matt. It's always the art and science, right? I mean I think we're looking at what the industry is doing. We tend to want to be in the middle of the pack with pricing. That's been our historical perspective. Typically, we only price to protect against inflation. If you take the average in the industry, their inflation is similar to ours, so that's going to kind of mean the same answer, right? So we're not going to be way off path either way. I think we've seen better than industry traffic. It feels like a relatively normal year. We have great operational execution, right? NPS is typically a leading indicator in our industry of where we're going. And I think that's why we launched rewards, right, as a means to drive incremental visitation. So it's always going to be a balancing act, certainly, it feels like next year could be more normal with respect to pricing though, as we commented before.

傑夫，是馬特。這始終是藝術和科學，對嗎？我的意思是，我認為我們正在研究這個行業正在做什麼。我們傾向於在定價方面處於中間位置。這就是我們的歷史觀點。通常，我們定價只是為了抵禦通貨膨脹。如果你採用行業平均水平，他們的通貨膨脹率與我們相似，所以這意味著相同的答案，對嗎？因此，無論哪種方式，我們都不會偏離正軌。我認為我們看到的比行業流量更好。感覺是比較正常的一年。我們有很好的營運執行力，對吧？ NPS 通常是我們產業發展方向的領先指標。我認為這就是我們推出獎勵的原因，對吧，作為推動增量訪問的一種手段。因此，這總是一種平衡行為，當然，就像我們之前評論的那樣，明年的定價可能會更加正常。

All right. And just a quick bookkeeping. I think you qualitatively called it out or mentioned it, but could you just provide the commodity and wage inflation levels you saw in Q3?

好的。只是快速記帳。我認為您定性地指出或提到了這一點，但您能否提供您在第三季度看到的商品和工資通膨水平？

What was the specific commodity? I think wages were around 4% to 5%. And then we saw 2% to 3% on the commodities.

具體商品是什麼？我認為工資大約是4%到5%。然後我們看到商品價格上漲了 2% 到 3%。

Your next question comes from the line of Jim Sanderson with Northcoast Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Jim Sanderson。

I wanted to talk about unit growth. And if you could provide some more feedback on how to look at store closures to net against the new unit openings for the 7% growth rate you mentioned for 2024 and then the 16 new units for 2023.

我想談談單位成長。如果您能提供更多回饋，說明如何根據您提到的 2024 年 7% 成長率以及 2023 年 16 個新店開業情況來考慮門市關閉的淨值。

Jim, this is Matt. So typically, we evaluate restaurants on an annual basis for where their cash flow is, the life of the lease, all of the normal attributes. And I think we've probably averaged about 1 closure a year. So I just don't think that's a significant driver of where we think aggregate unit growth will be. And if we are closing a location, it's going to be net accretive to us in any event. And so I think I would just kind of say 7% is going to be gross and net, roughly the same, give or take a unit a year kind of thing.

吉姆，這是馬特。因此，我們通常會每年評估餐廳的現金流狀況、租賃期限以及所有正常屬性。我認為我們可能平均每年關閉一次。因此，我認為這並不是我們認為總銷售成長的重要驅動因素。如果我們關閉一個地點，無論如何它都會為我們帶來淨增值。所以我想我想說 7% 是毛額和淨額，大致相同，每年增加或減少一個單位。

All right. Just a quick follow-up. Could you provide a little bit more detail on the same-store sales trend for North Italia breaking it out by traffic and mix and pricing going into fourth quarter.

好的。只是快速跟進。您能否提供有關北義大利同店銷售趨勢的更多詳細信息，按進入第四季度的流量、組合和定價進行細分。

We haven't done the mix versus traffic versus anything, but we do provide the prices Jim. Okay. It's about 8% and 5% comp.

我們還沒有對流量與任何東西進行混合，但我們確實提供了價格，吉姆。好的。大約是 8% 和 5% 的比較。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Vaccaro with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自布萊恩·瓦卡羅 (Brian Vaccaro) 和雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的對話。

So just 2 quick ones for me. I'm sorry if I missed it, but what was the off-premise sales mix at Cheesecake Factory in the quarter?

所以對我來說只有兩個快速的。如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但是芝士蛋糕工廠本季的場外銷售組合是怎樣的？

Brian, this is David Gordon. It was 21% same as it was...

布萊恩，這是大衛戈登。與原來相同的是 21%...

Okay. Great. And then, Matt, on the menu pricing comments at Cheesecake Factory, did I hear correctly, you plan to take around 2% in February, so you'd be settling into the [4] range basically moving into the early part of '24? Just wanted to clarify.

好的。偉大的。然後，馬特，在 Cheesecake Factory 的菜單定價評論中，我沒聽錯的話，你計劃在 2 月份採取大約 2% 的價格，所以你基本上會進入 [4] 範圍，基本上進入 24 年初？只是想澄清一下。

We haven't finalized that number, but we do feel like 1.5 to 2 on a regular basis is kind of where it's heading back to. And the only thing I would say is it depends on geography, right? As we noted, just to carve out, and I think some others have done this. We're going to look at California and what the FAST Act impact is, right? So it may not be the same everywhere, and it may not add up exactly that way, but we feel like those are some guardrails for use today.

我們還沒有最終確定這個數字，但我們確實覺得常規情況下 1.5 比 2 是它正在回歸的方向。我唯一想說的是這取決於地理位置，對嗎？正如我們所指出的，只是為了開拓，我認為其他一些人已經這樣做了。我們將看看加州以及 FAST 法案的影響是什麼，對吧？所以各地可能不一樣，加起來也可能不完全一樣，但我們覺得這些是今天可以使用的一些護欄。

Your next question comes from the line of David Tarantino with Baird.

你的下一個問題來自大衛·塔倫蒂諾和貝爾德的台詞。

Matt, I think your guidance for next year as you gave it assumes margin expansion and maybe I missed this, but could you maybe explain how you're going to deliver that margin expansion? And I think your comments suggested pricing and inflation should be roughly match. So I guess, what is the key driver of the margin expansion in that scenario?

馬特，我認為你給出的明年指導假設是利潤率擴張，也許我錯過了這一點，但你能否解釋一下你將如何實現利潤率擴張？我認為你的評論表明定價和通貨膨脹應該大致匹配。所以我想，在這種情況下利潤率擴張的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

Yes. So a couple of things. One, I think that it does imply that we think we'll be in positive territory for comps, and we think there could be some leverage opportunity. I think in the Q1 specific scenario, certainly, we're lapping really heightened commodity inflation there, too, as well. So I think that there's just some natural progression. Right now, on a sequential basis, just from a pure operational standpoint, we're driving some incremental profitability in the range of 25 to 50 basis points. So there's some of that's the 4 wall. We target getting a little bit of leverage off of G&A as well. So I think within that range, David, is particularly at the high end of the sales range, you're going to get a little bit more from the 4-wall piece of it than at the low end, which is relatively close to where we are today. So it's a combination of those factors.

是的。有幾件事。第一，我認為這確實意味著我們認為我們將處於比較積極的領域，我們認為可能存在一些槓桿機會。我認為，在第一季的具體情況下，當然，我們也正在經歷商品通膨的真正加劇。所以我認為這只是一些自然的進展。目前，僅從純粹營運的角度來看，我們正在連續推動獲利能力成長 25 至 50 個基點。所以其中有些是第四堵牆。我們的目標是從一般管理費用中獲得一點槓桿作用。所以我認為在這個範圍內，大衛，特別是在銷售範圍的高端，你會從它的 4 壁部分中獲得比低端更多的東西，低端相對接近於哪裡我們今天。所以這是這些因素的結合。

Great. And what sort of traffic assumption are you making for next year when you set either the revenue or the margin target?

偉大的。當您設定收入或利潤目標時，您對明年的流量做出什麼樣的假設？

Well, I think we're kind of looking at a combination of traffic and mix, right? Because they sort of, they've been going a little bit of hand in hand, and I think it's important to accommodate for both of that. Looking at some of the industry outlooks that we've gotten from some of our advisers as well as some of the other guidance, I think it feels prudent today to expect that those 2 combined are negative, probably in the low single-digit range.

嗯，我認為我們正在考慮流量和組合的結合，對吧？因為他們在某種程度上一直在攜手並進，我認為兼顧這兩點很重要。看看我們從一些顧問那裡得到的一些行業前景以及其他一些指導意見，我認為今天謹慎地預計這兩者的總和是負面的，可能在較低的個位數範圍內。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Bittner with Oppenheimer.

你的下一個問題來自布萊恩·比特納和奧本海默的對話。

I wanted to ask about net income margin guidance, specifically for the fourth quarter. I think you said net income margin is in a 4.25% range. And I'm just wondering the path to get there because I think if you assume a normalized tax rate, it would suggest like 200 basis points of operating margin improvement, and that would be against a comp that I think is implied to be like 2%-ish at the midpoint of your revenue range. So is that the right way you're thinking about 4Q? Or is there a big tax benefit coming in 4Q that we should be modeling?

我想詢問淨利潤率指引，特別是第四季的淨利潤率指引。我想你說淨利潤率在 4.25% 的範圍內。我只是想知道實現這一目標的途徑，因為我認為如果你假設一個標準化的稅率，它會建議營業利潤率提高 200 個基點，而這將與我認為暗示的 2 個基點的比較相悖。 %- ish 位於收入範圍的中點。那麼您對 4Q 的看法是正確的嗎？或者我們應該對第四季度是否有重大稅收優惠進行建模？

Brian, this is Matt. This is where the sequential modeling with the year-over-year pricing, I think, always gets a little bit hung up in the modeling, right? Because think about the components we're talking about. As Etienne noted, the pricing for the quarter is going to be 7% to 7.5%. And yet, the inflation for wages are going to be low to mid-single digits, and the inflation for commodities are low single digits, right? So effective pricing over effective inflation in our key categories creates a pretty significant margin pickup for 4-wall, and remember that because we were really behind on pricing last year. So we ended up taking that 3% roughly on December 1. And so we're lapping that benefit that we didn't get in the fourth quarter of last year. And I think that's the big difference.

布萊恩，這是馬特。我認為，這就是逐年定價的順序建模在建模中總是有點困難的地方，對吧？因為想想我們正在討論的組件。正如 Etienne 指出的那樣，本季的定價將為 7% 至 7.5%。然而，薪資通膨率將低至中個位數，大宗商品通膨率也將低至個位數，對吧？因此，在我們的關鍵類別中，有效定價相對於有效通膨而言，為 4-wall 創造了相當顯著的利潤回升，請記住這一點，因為去年我們在定價方面確實落後了。因此，我們最終大約在 12 月 1 日獲得了 3% 的收益。因此，我們正在享受去年第四季沒有獲得的收益。我認為這就是最大的區別。

And when we think about next year, the 4% to 4.5% net income guidance, as David Tarantino said it implies margin expansion, but can you shed some light on what the tax rate assumption is in that range so we can think about, how to think about...

當我們考慮明年4% 至4.5% 的淨利潤指導時，正如大衛·塔倫蒂諾所說，這意味著利潤率擴張，但您能否透露稅率假設在該範圍內的情況，以便我們可以考慮如何想一下...

It will be low double digits. 10% to 12% would be what we would expect. That's what's in our model right now.

這將是低兩位數。 10% 到 12% 是我們所期望的。這就是我們現在模型中的內容。

Your next question comes from the line of Katherine Griffin with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行凱瑟琳·格里芬的電話。

I wanted to just follow up on some of the commentary about kind of normalizing spending pattern, normalizing seasonality. Are you seeing anything discernible among higher income cohorts just since I think we've heard from a couple of players that you're seeing higher income and maybe a little bit more sensitive on alcohol mix and expressing check management that way. So just curious sort of how you can contextualize anything on income cohorts as it relates to your comments on normalizing patterns?

我想跟進一些關於支出模式正常化、季節性正常化的評論。您是否在高收入群體中看到了任何明顯的東西，因為我認為我們從一些玩家那裡聽說您看到了更高的收入，並且可能對酒精混合和以這種方式表達檢查管理更加敏感。所以只是好奇你如何將收入群體的任何內容與你對正常化模式的評論相關聯？

Katherine, this is Matt, and welcome to the call. We don't track like on a week-to-week or month-to-month in terms of the research that we're doing. We do see, on an annualized basis, that our relative cohort distribution and spending patterns are pretty stable. I mean, we have such a broad demographic appeal that I don't think we have that sort of same approach or thought pattern as I think maybe some other segments that are more narrow in our industry. So we don't look at it quite the same way as the others do in that regard.

凱瑟琳，我是馬特，歡迎來電。就我們正在進行的研究而言，我們不會像每週或每月那樣進行追蹤。我們確實看到，按年計算，我們的相對人群分佈和支出模式相當穩定。我的意思是，我們擁有如此廣泛的人口吸引力，以至於我認為我們沒有與我們行業中其他一些更狹窄的細分市場相同的方法或思維模式。因此，在這方面，我們看待它的方式與其他人不同。

Okay. And then I wanted to ask a little bit just about some of the other concepts. Given your comments on culinary dropout, I guess I'm curious if you can add a little bit more color on the components of the unit economics that are attractive enough to give you confidence to move forward with growing that brand? And if there's anything unique about customer profile, just given your comments on sort of where you see geographic portability.

好的。然後我想問一些其他的概念。鑑於您對烹飪退出的評論，我想我很好奇您是否可以在單位經濟學的組成部分上添加更多色彩，這些元素足夠有吸引力，足以讓您有信心繼續發展該品牌？如果客戶資料有什麼獨特之處，請就您在哪裡看到的地理可攜性發表評論。

Sure. Katherine, this is Matt. I'll give you a little bit on the numbers and then David Gordon can touch on sort of the attributes of the concept. But we think it can deliver roughly 2:1 sales to CapEx. I mean that's been the historical performance and continues to be close to what we're achieving today. And the margin profile has been in the mid to upper teens today coming out of the pandemic. So putting those together, you're definitely going to be above 30% and hopefully, much better than that on a sort of 4-wall margin returns. So we feel good about the overall economics, and it's been pretty consistent also across the portfolio so far. So as we noted, we'll test that portability. But very strong sales and very solid margins, right, what's exactly what you look for.

當然。凱瑟琳，這是馬特。我會給你一些關於數字的信息，然後大衛·戈登可以談談這個概念的一些屬性。但我們認為它可以為資本支出帶來大約 2:1 的銷售額。我的意思是，這是歷史性的表現，並且繼續接近我們今天所取得的成就。疫情過後，今天的利潤率已達到十幾歲左右。因此，將這些加在一起，您的回報率肯定會高於 30%，並且希望比 4 壁利潤回報率好得多。因此，我們對整體經濟狀況感覺良好，而且到目前為止，整個投資組合也非常一致。正如我們所指出的，我們將測試這種可移植性。但非常強勁的銷售和非常可觀的利潤，對吧，這正是您所尋找的。

Yes. I don't know much to add. I think the sales really make it the most promising. And as we have moved into new geographies, we see those same consistent high levels of sales. And again, it's a made from scratch concept. It has a bit of a higher bar mix than we would traditionally have a Cheesecake Factory, maybe skews to a little bit younger demographic, not as broad as Cheesecake Factory, but we think it has great appeal and is a terrific concept. And thus far, we'll continue to monitor closely as it moves into some of those new markets next year.

是的。我不知道太多要補充的。我認為銷量確實使它成為最有前途的。當我們進入新的地區時，我們看到了同樣持續的高銷售水平。再說一遍，這是一個從頭開始的概念。它的酒吧組合比我們傳統上的芝士蛋糕工廠要高一些，可能會偏向年輕一點的人群，不像芝士蛋糕工廠那麼廣泛，但我們認為它具有很大的吸引力，並且是一個很棒的概念。到目前為止，我們將繼續密切關注它明年進入其中一些新市場的情況。

Your last question today comes from the line of Brian Harbour with Morgan Stanley.

你今天的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布萊恩哈伯 (Brian Harbor)。

Just on your comments about inflation next year, do you think that labor inflation is sort of like higher end of that, maybe commodities a bit lower? How would you handicap the prospects for combined inflation to be low single digit, if it were, in fact, to be more favorable within your range?

關於您對明年通膨的評論，您是否認為勞動力通膨有點像高端通膨，也許大宗商品通膨略低一些？如果綜合通膨實際上在您的範圍內更為有利，您將如何將綜合通膨前景限制在低個位數？

Brian, this is Matt. I think there's still some work to be done on the commodity front. I mean, as you know, beef remains a little bit challenging, some ups and downs recently, but definitely a pressured headwind going into next year. So I think we want to see where we can get with that before being too specific Certainly, the labor environment is promising today. And I think our brand reputation helps quite a bit with that and our ability to attract and retain employees. They're getting their hours and their tips and all of those kinds of things. But I think we put them together on purpose because there are moving parts and there's still some time before we get there. So we feel good about that low to mid range, and we'll see where it plays out in the next 3 or 4 months.

布萊恩，這是馬特。我認為在商品方面還有一些工作要做。我的意思是，如您所知，牛肉仍然有點具有挑戰性，最近有一些起伏，但絕對是明年的壓力逆風。因此，我認為，在過於具體之前，我們希望先看看我們能做到什麼程度。當然，今天的勞動力環境是有希望的。我認為我們的品牌聲譽對我們吸引和留住員工的能力有很大幫助。他們得到了自己的時間和小費以及所有這些東西。但我認為我們是故意把它們放在一起的，因為還有一些活動部件，而且距離我們到達那裡還有一段時間。因此，我們對中低範圍感覺良好，我們將看看它在未來 3 或 4 個月內的表現。

Okay. And just North Italia, was your comment that the pricing you just took, were you behind on pricing there? And so essentially, were you saying that, that will put margins at a level that's somewhat comparable to Cheesecake as we get into 4Q and beyond?

好的。就北義大利而言，您的評論是您剛剛採取的定價是否落後於那裡的定價？從本質上講，您是說，當我們進入第四季度及以後時，這將使利潤率達到與起司蛋糕相當的水平嗎？

That's right, Brian. I mean, basically, they're one cycle behind Cheesecake Factory. And so when we just look at sort of cumulative pricing versus cumulative inflation, we were just 2, 2.5 points behind what we needed to do to catch up. That's correct.

沒錯，布萊恩。我的意思是，基本上，他們比起司蛋糕工廠落後一個週期。因此，當我們只考慮累積定價與累積通膨時，我們只落後了 2、2.5 個百分點才能趕上。這是正確的。

This concludes our Q&A and today's conference call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答和今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的出席。您現在可以斷開連線。