英美煙草 (BTI) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello and welcome to the BAT 2019 Preliminary Results Presentation.

    您好,歡迎來到 BAT 2019 初步結果展示。

  • (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)請注意,此通話正在錄音中。

  • I will now hand over to Jack Bowles, the Chief Executive.

    我現在將移交給首席執行官傑克鮑爾斯。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家,早安。

  • I'm Jack Bowles, Chief Executive, and with me this morning to present our full year 2019 results is Tadeu Marroco, our Group Finance Director.

    我是首席執行官 Jack Bowles,今天上午與我一起介紹我們 2019 年全年業績的還有我們的集團財務總監 Tadeu Marroco。

  • Before I start the presentation, I will take it that you have all seen and read the disclaimer on Page 2 and Page 3. As usual, at the end of the presentation, there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions.

    在我開始演示之前,我假設你們都已經閱讀並閱讀了第 2 頁和第 3 頁的免責聲明。和往常一樣,在演示結束時,您將有機會提問。

  • Last March, we set out 3 clear priorities to transform our business.

    去年 3 月,我們制定了 3 個明確的優先事項來轉變我們的業務。

  • I am pleased to say that we have made good progress over the last year.

    我很高興地說,我們在過去一年中取得了良好的進展。

  • We delivered value growth from our combustible business, gaining share globally with enhanced profitability.

    我們通過可燃物業務實現了價值增長,通過提高盈利能力在全球範圍內獲得份額。

  • We are driving a step change in New Categories by launching new products and entering new markets, providing potentially reduced risk products to close to 11 million consumers.

    通過推出新產品和進入新市場,我們正在推動新品類的重大變革,為近 1100 萬消費者提供可能降低風險的產品。

  • Lastly, in September, we announced some important organizational changes, which are largely completed.

    最後,在 9 月,我們宣布了一些重要的組織變革,這些變革已基本完成。

  • We have removed a net of 2,300 roles and recruited an additional 350 managers across the organization, creating the capabilities and resources to continue investing in new categories.

    我們已經刪除了 2,300 個職位,並在整個組織中額外招聘了 350 名經理,從而創造了繼續投資新類別的能力和資源。

  • This marks a significant first step in the journey towards making BAT a stronger, simpler, faster organization better equipped for the future.

    這標誌著 BAT 朝著更強大、更簡單、更快的組織邁出了重要的第一步,為未來做好了準備。

  • And this is just the beginning of our journey.

    而這僅僅是我們旅程的開始。

  • Our purpose is clear, we aim to build a better tomorrow by reducing the health impact of our business through offering a greater choice of enjoyable and less risky products.

    我們的目標很明確,我們的目標是通過提供更多令人愉悅且風險較低的產品選擇來減少業務對健康的影響,從而建立更美好的明天。

  • Our 2019 results reflected a strong operational performance across all our key financial and strategic objectives.

    我們 2019 年的業績反映了我們所有關鍵財務和戰略目標的強勁運營業績。

  • As you will have seen from this morning's announcement, reported results were impacted by a number of adjusting items, the majority of which were noncash.

    正如您從今天上午的公告中所看到的那樣,報告的結果受到許多調整項目的影響,其中大部分是非現金的。

  • To help you better understand the key drivers of the strong operational performance, we will focus on constant currency adjusted results for the balance of the presentation, unless stated otherwise.

    為了幫助您更好地了解強勁運營業績的關鍵驅動因素,除非另有說明,否則我們將重點關注演示文稿餘額的不變貨幣調整結果。

  • I am delighted to say that we delivered another year of high single-figure earning growth.

    我很高興地說,我們又實現了高個位數的收入增長。

  • Revenues and profit were both at the upper end of our guidance range while group value and volume share both grew.

    收入和利潤均處於我們指導範圍的上限,而集團價值和銷量份額均有所增長。

  • Operating margin increased alongside significant investment in New Categories.

    營業利潤率隨著對新品類的大量投資而增加。

  • Our strong New Category revenue growth was achieved despite the impact of the U.S. vapor category slowdown.

    儘管受到美國蒸汽類別放緩的影響,我們仍實現了強勁的新類別收入增長。

  • This demonstrates the strength of our long-term multi-category strategy.

    這證明了我們長期多品類戰略的實力。

  • Our strong focus on cash generation has supported delivery against our priority to reduce the leverage -- or to reduce leverage.

    我們對現金產生的強烈關注支持了我們優先降低杠桿或降低杠桿的交付。

  • We have announced a 3.6% increase in the dividend, in line with our 65% payout ratio and our commitment to delivering shareholder returns and dividend growth in sterling terms.

    我們宣布將股息增加 3.6%,這與我們 65% 的派息率以及我們以英鎊計算股東回報和股息增長的承諾一致。

  • This means we have delivered on all the commitments we set out last year.

    這意味著我們已經兌現了去年做出的所有承諾。

  • In recent years, a key pillar for our value creation has been our approach to sustainability.

    近年來,我們創造價值的一個關鍵支柱是我們的可持續發展方法。

  • The known health effects of the cigarettes we sell remain our biggest challenge.

    我們銷售的捲煙對健康的已知影響仍然是我們面臨的最大挑戰。

  • However, with the investments we are making to grow our New Category business, we have now close to 11 million people using noncombustible products across 45 countries, including a leading 3.5 million consumers in the EU alone, and this continues to grow.

    然而,隨著我們為發展新類別業務而進行的投資,我們現在在 45 個國家/地區有近 1100 萬人在使用不可燃產品,其中僅在歐盟就有領先的 350 萬消費者,而且這一數字還在繼續增長。

  • Within our agricultural supply chain, we aim to deliver a positive social impact wherever we operate.

    在我們的農業供應鏈中,我們的目標是在我們經營的任何地方產生積極的社會影響。

  • We strive for excellence in the management of our environmental footprint and have made some good progress.

    我們在環境足跡管理方面追求卓越,並取得了一些良好進展。

  • Since 2010, we have reduced overall carbon emission by 24%, water withdrawal by 34% and reduced waste to landfill by 60%.

    自 2010 年以來,我們的總碳排放量減少了 24%,取水量減少了 34%,垃圾填埋場減少了 60%。

  • Finally, we strive to operate to a high corporate governance standard.

    最後,我們努力以較高的公司治理標準運營。

  • The broad range of external recognitions we have achieved over the years is a testament to our progress to date.

    多年來,我們獲得的廣泛外部認可證明了我們迄今為止取得的進步。

  • BAT was awarded the Organizational Impact Award in the SEAL 2019 Business Sustainability Awards, putting us in the world's top 50 sustainable companies.

    BAT 在 SEAL 2019 商業可持續發展獎中獲得了組織影響獎,使我們躋身全球可持續發展公司 50 強。

  • 2019 also marks the 18th consecutive year that BAT has been included in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

    2019 年也是 BAT 連續第 18 年被納入道瓊斯可持續發展指數。

  • And in 2019 was the only company in our industry to have been included in the World Index.

    2019 年是我們行業中唯一一家被納入世界指數的公司。

  • In summary, we have made a lot of progress.

    總之,我們已經取得了很大進展。

  • However, we are aware that there is more to do, and I look forward to telling you more in our Capital Market Day in March.

    但是,我們知道還有更多工作要做,我期待在 3 月的資本市場日上告訴您更多信息。

  • We are delivering on our 3 priorities, and our results today reflect the good progress we have made in building a better tomorrow.

    我們正在實現我們的三個優先事項,我們今天的成果反映了我們在建設更美好的明天方面取得的良好進展。

  • It is clear that these results benefit from a very strong performance in combustible, the continued growth in our new category products and an organization that is already faster, more efficient and simpler.

    很明顯,這些結果得益於可燃物的強勁表現、我們新類別產品的持續增長以及已經更快、更高效和更簡單的組織。

  • Starting with the value growth in our combustible business.

    從我們可燃物業務的價值增長開始。

  • Revenue grew strongly, driven by value share gains, strong brands, good pricing and improved geographical mix.

    在價值份額增長、強大的品牌、良好的定價和改善的地域組合的推動下,收入強勁增長。

  • Cigarette and THP volume was down 4.4%, reflecting the effect of the previously announced one-off stock reduction in Russia and lower industry volumes in a number of low market values, including Egypt and Venezuela.

    捲菸和 THP 銷量下降 4.4%,這反映了俄羅斯先前宣布的一次性庫存減少以及包括埃及和委內瑞拉在內的一些低市值的行業銷量下降的影響。

  • Excluding these effects, BAT group volume was down around 3%, in line with global industry volume.

    排除這些影響,英美煙草集團的銷量下降了約 3%,與全球行業銷量一致。

  • Looking into 2020, we expect global industry volume to be down around 4%, with the increase reflecting large excise-driven industry volume declines in Indonesia and in Turkey.

    展望 2020 年,我們預計全球行業銷量將下降 4% 左右,增長反映了印度尼西亞和土耳其由消費稅驅動的行業銷量大幅下降。

  • In combustibles, our strategic brand portfolio continues to perform very well, delivering revenue growth of 5.6% in 2019.

    在易燃品方面,我們的戰略品牌組合繼續表現出色,2019 年收入增長 5.6%。

  • Total combustible volume and value share were up 20 basis points.

    可燃物總量和價值份額上升了 20 個基點。

  • This was driven by strategic brands portfolio volume share gain of 70 basis points, benefiting from migration in Brazil and value share gains of 40 basis points.

    這得益於戰略品牌組合的銷量份額增長 70 個基點,受益於巴西的移民和價值份額增長 40 個基點。

  • This now marks the eighth consecutive year of group volume share growth, reflecting a strong track record of superior consumer insights and innovation.

    這標誌著集團銷量份額連續第八年增長,反映了卓越的消費者洞察力和創新的強勁記錄。

  • Our U.S. Strategic Brands continue to strengthen their position with growth in all key value metrics.

    我們的美國戰略品牌通過所有關鍵價值指標的增長繼續鞏固其地位。

  • We gained share at the corporate level, in premium and with adult smokers aged 21 to 30 years old.

    我們在公司層面、保費和 21 至 30 歲的成年吸煙者中獲得了份額。

  • At 44%, our leading ASU30 share is now ahead of our corporate share of 35%, demonstrating the strong outlook of the business.

    我們領先的 ASU30 份額為 44%,現在領先於我們公司 35% 的份額,顯示出強勁的業務前景。

  • The growth in the New Category revenue was driven by a multi-category, multi-market approach.

    新品類收入的增長是由多品類、多市場的方法推動的。

  • We grew more than 20% globally in each category and delivered double-digit growth across all geographic regions.

    我們在每個類別的全球增長超過 20%,並在所有地理區域實現了兩位數的增長。

  • It is worth noting that New Categories revenue growth, excluding U.S. vapor, was up 39%.

    值得注意的是,不包括美國蒸汽在內的新類別收入增長了 39%。

  • This is in line with guidance given at the half year before the U.S. vapor market contracted.

    這與美國蒸汽市場收縮前半年給出的指導一致。

  • In vapor, we strengthened our global position and delivered constant currency revenue growth of 23% despite the turbulence in the market.

    儘管市場動盪,我們還是加強了我們的全球地位,並實現了 23% 的恆定貨幣收入增長。

  • We saw the category return to sequential growth in key markets in Q4 2019.

    我們看到該類別在 2019 年第四季度在主要市場恢復了連續增長。

  • We welcome the FDA recent actions to clarify U.S. vapor market regulation and support regulation that seeks to provide quality products for adult consumption.

    我們歡迎 FDA 最近採取行動澄清美國蒸汽市場監管並支持旨在為成人消費提供優質產品的監管。

  • We are well positioned ahead of the PMTA deadline in May and look forward to its enforcement.

    我們在 5 月的 PMTA 截止日期之前處於有利位置,並期待其執行。

  • We estimate a potential of GBP 1.5 billion of revenue to become contestable in the U.S. post the deadline.

    我們估計,在截止日期後,美國有可能獲得 15 億英鎊的收入。

  • We are in a very strong position and we expect the benefit to materialize in 2021.

    我們處於非常有利的地位,我們預計收益將在 2021 年實現。

  • Turning now to THP.

    現在轉向THP。

  • The category grew at a slower rate than previous years, with Japan and South Korea still representing over 60% of the total market.

    該類別的增長速度低於往年,日本和韓國仍佔整個市場的 60% 以上。

  • Improved consumer satisfaction for this category will be the key for its future success, given the satisfaction gap relative to cigarettes.

    鑑於相對於捲菸的滿意度差距,提高這一類別的消費者滿意度將是其未來成功的關鍵。

  • Nevertheless, we continue to see good opportunities for THP in specific markets, mainly in markets where low cigarettes strength delivery levels and where there are fewer tobacco and nicotine other alternatives.

    儘管如此,我們繼續在特定市場看到 THP 的良好機會,主要是在捲菸強度較低的市場以及煙草和尼古丁其他替代品較少的市場。

  • As a result, our priority is to focus on improving the satisfaction level of our products and to prioritize our investment in selected markets where we identified the greatest opportunities for category growth.

    因此,我們的首要任務是專注於提高我們產品的滿意度,並優先考慮我們對選定市場的投資,在這些市場中我們確定了類別增長的最大機會。

  • Modern Oral is a small but exciting new category that is growing rapidly where it is present, with 70% of the global volume outside of the U.S. We are a global leader -- global category leader with a volume share of 47%, with strong marketing and supply chain capabilities.

    Modern Oral 是一個小而令人興奮的新品類,在其存在的地方迅速增長,佔全球銷量的 70% 來自美國以外。我們是全球領導者——全球品類領導者,銷量份額為 47%,市場營銷強勁和供應鏈能力。

  • So we are committed to deliver a better tomorrow and we are excited by the opportunities in New Categories.

    因此,我們致力於創造更美好的明天,我們對新類別的機會感到興奮。

  • The regulatory environment is dynamic, as shown by the recent actions in Russia and Mexico and the FDA's intervention on vapor.

    監管環境是動態的,最近在俄羅斯和墨西哥採取的行動以及 FDA 對蒸氣的干預就表明了這一點。

  • With short-term visibility a challenge, it is important to be agile and responsive.

    由於短期可見性是一項挑戰,因此保持敏捷和響應能力非常重要。

  • Annual growth rates are difficult to predict.

    年增長率很難預測。

  • Yet, we are clear on our ambition to achieve GBP 5 billion revenue for New Categories in '23/'24.

    然而,我們很清楚我們的雄心是在 '23/'24 為新類別實現 50 億英鎊的收入。

  • We must retain the investment flexibility to allocate resources as necessary.

    我們必須保留投資靈活性,以便在必要時分配資源。

  • This allows us to be in a position of strength to invest in the business or to adapt to developments whilst delivering on our financial targets.

    這使我們能夠有能力投資於業務或適應發展,同時實現我們的財務目標。

  • We are committed to delivering 3% to 5% revenue growth and continued margin expansion, with the benefits of Quantum providing both the capabilities and efficiencies to support additional investment as required.

    我們致力於實現 3% 至 5% 的收入增長和持續的利潤增長,而 Quantum 的優勢提供了支持所需額外投資的能力和效率。

  • We are committed to delivering high single-figure adjusted EPS growth and continued strong cash generation to drive further deleverage and dividend growth.

    我們致力於實現高個位數的調整後每股收益增長和持續強勁的現金產生,以推動進一步的去槓桿和股息增長。

  • Looking into 2020.

    展望2020年。

  • While vapor markets are showing sequential recovery, they are yet to return to the level reached prior to the U.S. vapor slowdown.

    雖然蒸汽市場正在呈現連續復甦,但它們尚未恢復到美國蒸汽放緩之前達到的水平。

  • While we cannot predict the duration and extent of the coronavirus, we have already seen some impact in our duty-free business and the first signs of New Category supply disruption at retailer level.

    雖然我們無法預測冠狀病毒的持續時間和範圍,但我們已經看到我們的免稅業務受到了一些影響,並且零售商層面出現了新品類供應中斷的初步跡象。

  • Whilst these factors are unpredictable, this will make first half New Category revenue growth difficult, given the likelihood of growing out of stock and delayed new product launches.

    儘管這些因素是不可預測的,但這將使上半年新品類的收入增長變得困難,因為可能會出現缺貨和新產品發布延遲的情況。

  • Nevertheless, we do not expect this to impact our ability to deliver on our financial guidance.

    儘管如此,我們預計這不會影響我們實現財務指導的能力。

  • So in summary, we are performing well, delivering on our 3 priority areas.

    總而言之,我們在三個優先領域的表現都很好。

  • The opportunities in New Categories remain exciting.

    新類別的機會仍然令人興奮。

  • As we consolidate our New Category brands, we are committed to investing further than building the capabilities required.

    隨著我們鞏固我們的新品類品牌,我們致力於進一步投資而不是建立所需的能力。

  • Consumer and market insights clearly demonstrate that our multi-category strategy is key to deliver long-term sustainable growth.

    消費者和市場洞察清楚地表明,我們的多品類戰略是實現長期可持續增長的關鍵。

  • This is central to our ambition to create a better tomorrow.

    這是我們創造更美好明天的雄心的核心。

  • I will now hand over to Tadeu, who will take you through 2019 in a bit more details.

    我現在將移交給 Tadeu,他將詳細介紹 2019 年。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • Thank you, Jack.

    謝謝你,傑克。

  • As we said at the beginning of the presentation, in 2019, we have again delivered on our financial commitments and we have done this while continuing to invest significant additional resource in our future.

    正如我們在演講開始時所說的那樣,在 2019 年,我們再次兌現了我們的財務承諾,我們做到了這一點,同時繼續為我們的未來投入大量額外資源。

  • Margin improvement of 50 basis points was delivered alongside an incremental GBP 500 million market investment in new categories.

    利潤率提高了 50 個基點,同時增加了 5 億英鎊的新品類市場投資。

  • Strong free cash flow after dividends of GBP 1.9 billion exceeded our guidance of GBP 1.5 billion.

    19 億英鎊股息後的強勁自由現金流超過了我們 15 億英鎊的指引。

  • This underscores our ability to sustainably grow the dividend, maintain a 65% dividend payout ratio and simultaneously reduce our leverage by 0.4x at constant rates.

    這凸顯了我們可持續增長股息、維持 65% 的股息支付率並同時以恆定利率將我們的槓桿率降低 0.4 倍的能力。

  • Total revenue grew 5.6%, ahead of our guidance range of 3.5%, driven by the strong performance in combustibles and our growth in New Categories.

    總收入增長 5.6%,高於我們 3.5% 的指導範圍,這得益於可燃物的強勁表現和我們在新類別的增長。

  • Profit growth of 6.6% was also at the top end of our guidance range, with growth in revenue and operating margin driven by strong performance across our markets.

    6.6% 的利潤增長也處於我們指導範圍的高端,收入和營業利潤率的增長受到我們市場強勁表現的推動。

  • There was a good performance across the regions.

    各地區表現良好。

  • In APME, total revenue grew by more than 5%, driven by good price/mix and growth in New Categories.

    在 APME 中,總收入增長超過 5%,這得益於良好的價格/組合和新類別的增長。

  • Value share increased by 30 basis points, led by gains in Japan.

    在日本增長的帶動下,價值份額增加了 30 個基點。

  • Profit from operations grew nearly 8%, with strong growth in Japan and the Middle East alongside additional investments in New Categories.

    運營利潤增長近 8%,日本和中東地區增長強勁,同時對新品類進行了額外投資。

  • In AMSSA, revenue was up over 9% and value share increased 20 basis points, with a particularly strong performance in South Africa, returning to volume, revenue and profit growth with a reduction in illicit trade.

    在 AMSSA,收入增長超過 9%,價值份額增加 20 個基點,其中南非表現尤為強勁,隨著非法貿易的減少,銷量、收入和利潤恢復增長。

  • Profit from operations grew 10%, driven by growth in Brazil, Canada, Chile, Nigeria and Mexico.

    在巴西、加拿大、智利、尼日利亞和墨西哥的增長推動下,運營利潤增長了 10%。

  • In ENA, revenue grew 5%, driven by strong pricing across the region.

    在 ENA,收入增長了 5%,這得益於該地區強勁的定價。

  • Cigarette value share was marginally higher with strong performance from Romania, Ukraine and Russia.

    由於羅馬尼亞、烏克蘭和俄羅斯的強勁表現,捲菸價值份額略高。

  • Profit from operations was up 3% with good results in Germany, Turkey, Romania and Poland, offset by the impact of the stock reduction in Russia and additional investments in New Categories.

    德國、土耳其、羅馬尼亞和波蘭的經營利潤增長了 3%,但被俄羅斯庫存減少和對新類別的額外投資的影響所抵消。

  • Turning to our largest region, the U.S. Performance was strong, with revenue and profits from operations up over 4% and 6%, respectively.

    談到我們最大的地區,美國表現強勁,運營收入和利潤分別增長超過 4% 和 6%。

  • This was driven by the combustible business, which grew revenue nearly 4%, reflecting good pricing and the reduction in discounting supported by data analytics.

    這是由可燃業務推動的,該業務的收入增長了近 4%,這反映了良好的定價和數據分析支持的折扣減少。

  • This more than offset volume, which was down 6% on a shipment to wholesale basis.

    這遠遠抵消了出貨量,批發量下降了 6%。

  • This was against an industry down 5.3%.

    這與一個行業下降了 5.3% 相比。

  • Looking into 2020, we expect industry volumes to be down around 5%, a slight improvement on 2019.

    展望 2020 年,我們預計行業銷量將下降 5% 左右,比 2019 年略有改善。

  • This reflects the benefits of a reduction and the impact from the growth of vapor, largely offset by the impact of legislation raising the minimum age to purchase all tobacco products to 21.

    這反映了減少的好處和蒸汽增長的影響,這在很大程度上被立法將購買所有煙草產品的最低年齡提高到 21 歲的影響所抵消。

  • Profit from operations grew more than 6%, driven by good revenue growth and cost savings, offset increased market investment behind New Categories.

    在良好的收入增長和成本節約的推動下,運營利潤增長了 6% 以上,抵消了新類別背後市場投資的增加。

  • Following the acquisition of Reynolds and the license synergies, mainly procurement, R&D and overheads of over $400 million have been delivered a year ahead of schedule.

    在收購 Reynolds 和許可協同效應之後,主要是採購、研發和超過 4 億美元的管理費用已提前一年交付。

  • Operating margin was up 100 basis points to 48.5%.

    營業利潤率上升 100 個基點至 48.5%。

  • In U.S. vapor, Vuse grew value share and we claimed the #2 brand position in the market, strongly outperforming the industry in the second half.

    在美國蒸汽中,Vuse 的價值份額增長,我們在市場上佔據了第二大品牌的地位,下半年的表現遠超行業。

  • In the second half, Vuse grew value share over 8 percentage points to 21.2%, driven by the success of Alto with value share up over 12 percentage points to 15.4%.

    下半年,Vuse 的價值份額增長超過 8 個百分點至 21.2%,這得益於 Alto 的成功,價值份額增長超過 12 個百分點至 15.4%。

  • Closed systems now represent 6% of the U.S. vapor markets.

    封閉系統現在占美國蒸汽市場的 6%。

  • Outside the U.S., we strengthened our leadership position in vapor.

    在美國以外,我們加強了我們在蒸汽領域的領導地位。

  • In ENA, vapor revenue was up 30%, driven by Vype, which grew revenue 110%.

    在 ENA,在 Vype 的推動下,Vype 的收入增長了 30%,收入增長了 110%。

  • We are growing volume and value sharing in all the established vapor markets, including the U.K., France and Germany.

    我們在所有成熟的蒸汽市場(包括英國、法國和德國)的銷量和價值共享都在增長。

  • In newer vapor markets, Vype became a market leader in Hungary, the #1 brand in Belgium and is showing strong early progress in Spain.

    在較新的蒸汽市場,Vype 成為匈牙利的市場領導者,比利時排名第一的品牌,並在西班牙顯示出強勁的早期進展。

  • Finally, we completed the acquisition of Twisp in South Africa in Q4.

    最後,我們在第四季度完成了對南非 Twisp 的收購。

  • This strengthens our network across stores and e-commerce channels and give us market leadership in vapor in South Africa.

    這加強了我們跨商店和電子商務渠道的網絡,並使我們在南非的蒸汽市場處於領先地位。

  • In THP, Q4 saw the launch of our 3 new glo variants: glo Pro, the first product to use induction heating technology; glo Nano, a design upgrade in place of glo Mini; and glo Sens, a hybrid product.

    在 THP,第四季度我們推出了 3 款新的 glo 變體: glo Pro,第一個使用感應加熱技術的產品; glo Nano,替代 glo Mini 的設計升級;和 glo Sens,一種混合產品。

  • glo Pro has shown good initial traction with consumers, driven by the benefits of its induction technology, with consumers highlighting the more satisfying product experience, boost function and faster ramp-up as key benefits.

    glo Pro 在其感應技術優勢的推動下,已在消費者中表現出良好的初始吸引力,消費者強調更令人滿意的產品體驗、增強功能和更快的加速提升是關鍵優勢。

  • Regarding glo Sens, after an encouraging launch, we have seen less traction in consumer uptake than we had anticipated.

    關於 glo Sens,在令人鼓舞的推出之後,我們發現消費者接受的牽引力比我們預期的要小。

  • We are improving our in-market execution, broadening device penetration, improving trial to conversion rates and implementing plans to drive better consumer uptake.

    我們正在改進我們的市場執行、擴大設備滲透率、提高試用轉化率並實施計劃以提高消費者的接受度。

  • Overall, THP revenue grew by 23% with consumables volume up 32%.

    總體而言,THP 收入增長了 23%,消耗品數量增長了 32%。

  • In Japan, we reached a record BAT volume share of total nicotine of 19.2% in January.

    在日本,我們在 1 月份達到了 19.2% 的 BAT 總量份額,創下歷史新高。

  • THP category growth in Japan has fallen from 67% in 2018 to 6.5% in 2019 due to market saturation.

    由於市場飽和,日本的 THP 類別增長率從 2018 年的 67% 下降到 2019 年的 6.5%。

  • In addition, competitive intensity has increased with the proliferation of new product launches.

    此外,隨著新產品的推出,競爭強度也有所增加。

  • These market dynamics looks set to continue as we move into 2020, with THP category growth in Japan expect to moderate further.

    隨著我們進入 2020 年,這些市場動態似乎將繼續下去,日本的 THP 類別增長預計將進一步放緩。

  • Despite this, glo's latest weekly total nicotine share is now up to 5.2%.

    儘管如此,glo 最新的每週總尼古丁份額現在高達 5.2%。

  • Elsewhere in ENA, the THP category is still small, with concentration in just 3 markets representing 57%.

    在 ENA 的其他地方,THP 類別仍然很小,僅集中在 3 個市場,佔 57%。

  • We are making steady progress from a low base.

    我們正在從低基數穩步推進。

  • glo has demonstrated particular traction in Eastern Europe in generally lower tar markets.

    glo 在東歐普遍較低的焦油市場表現出特別的吸引力。

  • Category share in the capital cities of Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine is now at 10%, 32% and 10%, respectively.

    俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦和烏克蘭首都城市的類別份額現在分別為 10%、32% 和 10%。

  • Moving on to Modern Oral.

    繼續現代口語。

  • In ENA, which accounts for 2/3 of the category worldwide, our Modern Oral revenue was up over 240%.

    在佔全球該類別 2/3 的 ENA 中,我們的現代口語收入增長了 240% 以上。

  • In Sweden, Lyft is the leading modern oral brand with a 58% share of category.

    在瑞典,Lyft 是領先的現代口腔品牌,佔有 58% 的品類份額。

  • And in Norway, BAT is the fastest-growing company modern oral with a category share of 71%.

    而在挪威,BAT 是增長最快的現代口腔公司,類別份額為 71%。

  • After only 6 months of launch, we are pleased with the performance of Velo in the U.S., having achieved 10% volume share of the modern oral category and 29% share of the growing under 6-milligram category.

    推出僅 6 個月後,我們對 Velo 在美國的表現感到滿意,在現代口腔類別中取得了 10% 的銷量份額,在 6 毫克以下類別中取得了 29% 的份額。

  • In 2019, the under 6-milligram segment reached 34% of the category, up 6 percentage points.

    2019年,6毫克以下的細分市場達到34%,上升了6個百分點。

  • Having focused our initial launch rollout in the eastern states to test and learn, we are pleased to see significantly higher share performance in this area.

    將我們在東部各州的首次發布集中進行測試和學習後,我們很高興看到該領域的股票表現顯著提高。

  • We are in constraint with manufacturing capacity of 2 billion pouches.

    我們受限於 20 億袋的製造能力。

  • We have yet to fully activate the national support plans, and we'll redeploy the learnings from the initial launching states.

    我們還沒有完全啟動國家支持計劃,我們將重新部署從最初啟動國家的經驗教訓。

  • In Atlanta, where all the 3 categories are present, we see a strong development of modern oral and vapor with very little traction for THP.

    在亞特蘭大,所有 3 個類別都存在,我們看到現代口服和蒸汽的強勁發展,而 THP 的吸引力很小。

  • In the last 6 months, our U.S. business has grown share of total nicotine in Atlanta faster than nationally.

    在過去 6 個月中,我們的美國業務在亞特蘭大的總尼古丁份額增長速度快於全國。

  • Moving on to operating margin, which was up 50 basis points.

    繼續經營利潤率,上升了 50 個基點。

  • The 300 basis points incremental New Category investment was focused on developing and launching new products, platforms and digital capabilities.

    新增 300 個基點的新類別投資專注於開發和推出新產品、平台和數字功能。

  • This helped us drive robust New Category growth in 2019 and has also strengthened our platform to support growth in the years to come.

    這幫助我們在 2019 年推動了強勁的新品類增長,也加強了我們的平台以支持未來幾年的增長。

  • This incremental investment was more than offset by the 390 basis points of margin support.

    這一增量投資被 390 個基點的保證金支持所抵消。

  • This was driven by pricing and improved geographic mix, gross margin expansion, SKU rationalization.

    這是由定價和改進的地域組合、毛利率擴張、SKU 合理化推動的。

  • Looking into 2020 and beyond, the benefits of Quantum means that we'll be able to continue to invest for the future and deliver margin expansion.

    展望 2020 年及以後,Quantum 的優勢意味著我們將能夠繼續為未來投資並實現利潤增長。

  • Our key highlights of the group's performance in 2019 was its strong cash generation, resulting in the leverage of 0.5x at current rates and 0.4x at constant rates in line with our guidance.

    我們對集團 2019 年業績的主要亮點是其強勁的現金產生,根據我們的指導,按當前利率計算的槓桿率為 0.5 倍,按固定利率計算為 0.4 倍。

  • Free cash flow, after dividends of GBP 1.8 billion at constant rates, was driven by operating cash flow conversion of 97%, ahead of our medium-term target of 90% or more.

    在按固定利率計算 18 億英鎊股息後,自由現金流受到 97% 的經營現金流轉換率的推動,超過了我們 90% 或更多的中期目標。

  • At constant rates, adjusted net debt fell GBP 0.8 billion, driven by our strong cash flow.

    在我們強勁的現金流的推動下,按固定利率計算,調整後的淨債務減少了 8 億英鎊。

  • This was despite GBP 0.4 billion of other cash and noncash items, mainly hedging, and the recognition of a higher lease liability on adoption of IFRS 16, which added GBP 0.6 billion to net debt.

    儘管存在 4 億英鎊的其他現金和非現金項目,主要是對沖,並且在採用 IFRS 16 後確認了更高的租賃負債,淨債務增加了 6 億英鎊。

  • At current rates, adjusted net debt reduced by a further GBP 0.9 billion to GBP 41.7 billion due to FX translation, resulting from the strengthening of sterling against the U.S. dollar.

    按當前匯率計算,由於英鎊兌美元走強導致外匯換算,調整後的淨債務進一步減少 9 億英鎊至 417 億英鎊。

  • In 2020, gross CapEx is expected to be around GBP 650 million, in line with adjusted depreciation.

    2020 年,資本支出總額預計約為 6.5 億英鎊,與調整後的折舊一致。

  • We expect operating cash conversion to be in excess of 90% and remain committed to a 65% dividend payout ratio, with growth in sterling terms alongside continued leverage of the balance sheet.

    我們預計運營現金轉換率將超過 90%,並繼續致力於 65% 的股息支付率,以英鎊計算的增長以及資產負債表的持續槓桿作用。

  • The leverage on the balance sheet continues to be a priority.

    資產負債表上的槓桿仍然是一個優先事項。

  • With current FX rates representing a headwind, we expect to drive adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA down to around 3.2x at current rates by the end of the year and then to below 3x by the end, 2021.

    由於當前的匯率是逆風,我們預計到今年年底,調整後的淨債務與調整後的 EBITDA 比率將下降至當前利率的 3.2 倍左右,然後到 2021 年底降至 3 倍以下。

  • On a constant basis, adjusted diluted EPS grew 8.4%, delivering on our high single-figure earnings growth commitments.

    調整後的攤薄每股收益持續增長 8.4%,兌現了我們高個位數的盈利增長承諾。

  • Adjusted diluted EPS was up 9.1% at current rates.

    以當前速度計算,調整後的稀釋後每股收益增長了 9.1%。

  • Net finance cost at constant rate increased mainly due to short-term funding of working capital movements and interest on leases under IFRS 16.

    以固定利率計算的淨財務成本增加的主要原因是根據 IFRS 16 為營運資金流動和租賃利息提供的短期資金。

  • We expect net finance costs to be stable at around GBP 1.5 billion for 2020.

    我們預計 2020 年的淨財務成本將穩定在 15 億英鎊左右。

  • Associate income increased due to a good performance of -- from ITC, which was further helped by the Indian tax reform.

    由於 ITC 的良好表現,聯營公司的收入增加了,印度稅制改革進一步幫助了這一點。

  • The underlying tax rate decreased from 26.4% in 2018 to 26% in 2019.

    基礎稅率從 2018 年的 26.4% 降至 2019 年的 26%。

  • I would expect the underlying tax rate for 2020 should reduce further to around 25.5%.

    我預計 2020 年的基本稅率應進一步降至 25.5% 左右。

  • This, in combination with a stable net finance costs, means that in 2020, we expect a similar benefit to EPS growth from items below operating profit.

    這與穩定的淨財務成本相結合,意味著在 2020 年,我們預計低於營業利潤的項目對每股收益增長有類似的好處。

  • We expect another year of high single-figure constant currency earnings growth, with results, in particular, New Category revenue growth weighted to the second half.

    我們預計,固定貨幣收益將再次保持高個位數增長,尤其是新類別收入增長將加權到下半年。

  • Based on our current foreign exchange rates, there will be a headwind of around 4% on earnings if FX rates were to remain unchanged for the rest of the year.

    根據我們目前的匯率,如果匯率在今年餘下時間保持不變,收益將受到約 4% 的阻力。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • I will now pass back to Jack for his closing remarks.

    我現在將轉達給傑克的閉幕詞。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Thank you very much, Tadeu.

    非常感謝,Tadeu。

  • To sum up, the business is performing well.

    綜上所述,業務表現良好。

  • We are delivering on our financial commitments and another year of high single-figure constant currency earning growth, whilst at the same time, making significant additional investment for the future.

    我們正在兌現我們的財務承諾和又一年高個位數的固定貨幣收入增長,同時為未來進行大量額外投資。

  • We will continue to focus on our 3 core priorities to create a better tomorrow.

    我們將繼續專注於我們的三個核心優先事項,以創造更美好的明天。

  • We are transforming the company with the consumer as its center, building strong brands and delivering value from our combustible business, providing the resources to invest significantly behind a multi-category business.

    我們正在以消費者為中心對公司進行轉型,打造強大的品牌並從我們的可燃業務中創造價值,為多品類業務的重大投資提供資源。

  • Looking ahead to 2020, we are confident of another good year of high single-figure earnings growth.

    展望 2020 年,我們對又一個高個位數盈利增長的好年充滿信心。

  • Our confidence in the future of BAT is reflected in another increase in the dividend.

    我們對 BAT 未來的信心體現在股息的再次增加上。

  • Thank you, and I will now open up for questions.

    謝謝您,我現在將提出問題。

  • Yes?

    是的?

  • Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

    Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

  • Gaurav Jain from Barclays.

    來自巴克萊的 Gaurav Jain。

  • I have a few questions which are all interlinked.

    我有幾個問題都是相互關聯的。

  • So can you talk of the U.S. cigarette volume performance year-to-date?

    那麼你能談談美國今年迄今為止的捲煙銷量表現嗎?

  • You mentioned that there is a supply constraint, which is now happening in e-cigarettes in the U.S. So is it happening for you as well as for competition?

    您提到存在供應限制,現在美國的電子煙正在發生這種情況。那麼它是否發生在您和競爭中?

  • And if it persists, is there a benefit that might happen to U.S. cigarette volumes?

    如果這種情況持續下去,美國的捲煙銷量是否會受益?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Sorry, we stop there and then we continue after, if you don't mind.

    抱歉,如果您不介意,我們就停在那裡然後繼續。

  • Yes, I mean, related to the U.S. market.

    是的,我的意思是,與美國市場有關。

  • So of course, I'm not going to go further and beyond what we said earlier, but I think that we do not see any material difference between Q4 and the performance of the business in the beginning of the year.

    因此,當然,我不會進一步超越我們之前所說的,但我認為我們認為第四季度與年初的業務表現之間沒有任何實質性差異。

  • So I think that the U.S. market is coming out nicely of the crisis related to e-cigarettes.

    所以我認為美國市場在與電子煙有關的危機中表現良好。

  • Of course, the growth that is happening at the moment did not recover fully what has happened in the second half of last year.

    當然,目前正在發生的增長並沒有完全恢復去年下半年發生的情況。

  • But we see a good potential for the U.S. market.

    但我們看到了美國市場的巨大潛力。

  • On your second question related to the supply disruption, first of all, we have to be cognizant of the fact that it's a terrible thing that is happening related to that coronavirus, and there is lots of dead persons.

    關於你關於供應中斷的第二個問題,首先,我們必須認識到,與冠狀病毒有關的事情正在發生,這是一件可怕的事情,而且有很多人死亡。

  • And we're doing all the support and we're giving all the support that we can to our teams first, but also to all the partners that we're working with, all the manufacturers that we're working with.

    我們正在提供所有支持,我們首先向我們的團隊提供我們所能提供的所有支持,同時也向我們正在合作的所有合作夥伴、所有與我們合作的製造商提供支持。

  • Most of the factories are now open, yet we see here and there some attention in terms of supply chain and some limited out of stocks in retailers in some geographies.

    大多數工廠現在都開張了,但我們在供應鏈方面看到了一些關注,並且在某些地區,零售商的一些庫存有限。

  • You just have to remember that I'm not going to comment on the potential out of stocks of competition.

    你只需要記住,我不會評論競爭股票的潛力。

  • But as I said, we see some in different places.

    但正如我所說,我們在不同的地方看到了一些。

  • First of all, we have a very strong business worldwide.

    首先,我們在全球擁有非常強大的業務。

  • The weight of China in our all revenue base is extremely limited.

    中國在我們所有收入基礎中的權重非常有限。

  • And most, nearly all, our factory footprint on manufacturing for cigarettes is outside of the area of China.

    而且,幾乎所有我們的捲煙製造工廠都在中國以外的地區。

  • And we do not see, at the moment, any inflection point apart from duty-free, which, of course, is impacted by the reduction of number of travelers, but this is extremely marginal in our total business.

    目前,除了免稅之外,我們沒有看到任何拐點,當然,這會受到旅客人數減少的影響,但這在我們的整體業務中是極其微不足道的。

  • So that was your first 2 questions.

    所以這是你的前兩個問題。

  • You had more?

    你有更多嗎?

  • Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

    Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So switching to Modern Oral in the U.S. So you have a 10 percentage share now after 6 months of -- or 7 months of being in the market.

    因此,在美國轉向 Modern Oral。因此,在進入市場 6 個月或 7 個月後,您現在擁有 10% 的份額。

  • And there will be the bigger competitor, which will enter the market later this year.

    並且會有更大的競爭對手,它將在今年晚些時候進入市場。

  • So how do you assess success in that market?

    那麼,您如何評估該市場的成功?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think what's very important to us is that we're present in 3 categories worldwide and we're growing share in these 3 categories.

    我認為對我們來說非常重要的是我們在全球範圍內存在 3 個類別,並且我們在這 3 個類別中的份額正在增長。

  • That's the starting point.

    這就是起點。

  • So we are not only delivering growth in these 3 categories but also a very strong growth in combustible business.

    因此,我們不僅在這三個類別中實現了增長,而且在可燃業務方面也實現了非常強勁的增長。

  • I think that, specifically to oral tobacco, as we said, we are the leader worldwide in terms of oral tobacco and even Scandinavia, that is, I would say, the starting ground of all these products, we are winning against all competition in terms of modern oral.

    我認為,特別是口腔煙草,正如我們所說,我們是口腔煙草甚至斯堪的納維亞半島的全球領導者,也就是說,我會說,所有這些產品的起點,我們正在戰勝所有競爭者現代口語的。

  • In the U.S. specifically, we have very good performance with the Velo brand, and I said I'm very pleased with the results.

    特別是在美國,我們對 Velo 品牌的表現非常好,我說我對結果非常滿意。

  • We have no constraint in terms of supply.

    我們在供應方面沒有限制。

  • And as Tadeu explained earlier, we took the opportunity to learn on that category, as we do all the time, and we have now a distribution of more than 70% but an active distribution of around 15%.

    正如 Tadeu 之前解釋的那樣,我們利用這個機會學習該類別,就像我們一直在做的那樣,我們現在的分佈超過 70%,但活躍分佈在 15% 左右。

  • If you take the position that we have, for instance, where all the different categories are present in Georgia and also in Atlanta, we have close to 40% share in oral tobacco.

    如果你採取我們的立場,例如,在喬治亞州和亞特蘭大都有所有不同的類別,我們在口用煙草中的份額接近 40%。

  • So I think that we have the potential and the runway to continue to accelerate in terms of New Categories.

    所以我認為我們有潛力和跑道在新類別方面繼續加速。

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • Nico Von Stackelberg from Liberum.

    來自 Liberum 的 Nico Von Stackelberg。

  • I had a quick question on the dividend growth.

    我有一個關於股息增長的快速問題。

  • My impression was, in a relatively bad year, the dividend would grow about 4%.

    我的印像是,在相對糟糕的一年,股息將增長約 4%。

  • So it grew a little bit below that.

    所以它增長了一點點。

  • And I was just wondering, could you explain what the rationale was?

    我只是想知道,你能解釋一下理由是什麼嗎?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • As was always, to deliver what we committed, a 65% payout ratio, that's exactly that 65% payout.

    與往常一樣,為了兌現我們承諾的 65% 的派息率,也就是 65% 的派息率。

  • We have, for sure, very diligence of cash, as you can imagine, and we are striving to deleverage the company.

    正如你可以想像的那樣,我們肯定對現金非常勤奮,我們正在努力使公司去槓桿化。

  • And we assess that it's a good remuneration in terms of the dividend, and we are sticking to the policy that we have set ourselves.

    我們評估它在股息方面是一個很好的報酬,我們堅持我們自己制定的政策。

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • I guess, my second question.

    我想,我的第二個問題。

  • I'm curious about product applications in the U.S. and the PMTA...

    我對美國和PMTA的產品應用很好奇...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • What, sorry?

    道歉什麼?

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • The product applications for PMTA.

    PMTA的產品應用。

  • Could you give an overview of what your priorities are in terms of PMTA?

    您能否概述一下您在 PMTA 方面的優先事項?

  • Are there certain major categories that you see that you won't be PMTA-ing, for example, tobacco heating products, THP?

    是否有某些主要類別是您不會使用 PMTA 的,例如煙草加熱產品、THP?

  • Will that be lead PMTA product there?

    那會是那裡的主要 PMTA 產品嗎?

  • And yes, just generally speaking, could you talk about modern oral PMTA?

    是的,一般來說,你能談談現代口服 PMTA 嗎?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think that our first priority lies on e-cigarette and oral tobacco.

    我認為我們的首要任務是電子煙和口服煙草。

  • We said, repeatedly, we will do tobacco mint and other flavors and we'll select these ones.

    我們反复說過,我們會做煙草薄荷和其他口味,我們會選擇這些。

  • We want to make sure that we're strong in this environment.

    我們要確保我們在這個環境中很強大。

  • And in terms of THP, we already have a product that is in review with the FDA.

    在 THP 方面,我們已經有一個產品正在接受 FDA 的審查。

  • What's the most important to us is the fact that from, the market that was extremely segmented or extremely atomized in terms of number of players and number of SKUs and open system, now you have in the U.S. a market where 60% of the sales are done in closed system, which plays to our strength.

    對我們來說最重要的是,從玩家數量和 SKU 數量以及開放系統方面極度細分或極度原子化的市場,現在您在美國擁有 60% 的銷售額的市場。在封閉的系統中完成,這發揮了我們的優勢。

  • And the second thing is we see that there's a contestable space that is going to happen by consequence of the filtering of the FDA process of $1.5 billion, to which you will have most of the benefit that will come rather in '21 and most of it in '22.

    第二件事是我們看到,由於對 15 億美元的 FDA 流程的過濾,將會出現一個可競爭的空間,您將獲得大部分收益,而這將在 21 年以及大部分收益在 22 年。

  • Why?

    為什麼?

  • Because it will take time to -- for the FDA to process all the information that we'll receive.

    因為 FDA 需要時間來處理我們將收到的所有信息。

  • I remind you that we've already put some PMTA applications in the system in order to test the grounds more for the administrative side of it, and just these SKUs represent 150,000 documents and took more than 27 hours to download.

    我提醒您,我們已經在系統中放入了一些 PMTA 應用程序,以便對其管理方面進行更多測試,僅這些 SKU 就代表了 150,000 份文件,下載時間超過 27 小時。

  • So it's going to be a heavy process, and we're going to support the FDA as much as we can, and we are already in contact with the FDA to make sure that this goes as smoothly as possible.

    所以這將是一個繁重的過程,我們將盡我們所能支持 FDA,我們已經與 FDA 聯繫,以確保這盡可能順利。

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • And my final question is on the vapor opportunity in the U.S. for profitability.

    我的最後一個問題是關於美國的蒸汽機會的盈利能力。

  • I mean, I can see how this becomes a profitable segment after PMTA, but could you give any sort of color from your side in terms of how you see the profitability of this category developing, say, on a 5-year view, please?

    我的意思是,我可以看到這在 PMTA 之後如何成為一個有利可圖的部分,但是您能否就您如何看待該類別的盈利能力發展提供任何顏色,例如,從 5 年的角度來看,好嗎?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • There are a number of levers that we can action to improve profitability in vapor.

    我們可以採取許多措施來提高蒸汽的盈利能力。

  • One of those is related to the product costs and the whole supply chain.

    其中之一與產品成本和整個供應鏈有關。

  • And it's a constant topic for us to review what are the opportunities out there to improve and reduce the cost and improve gross margins.

    對於我們來說,審查有哪些機會可以改善和降低成本並提高毛利率是一個不變的話題。

  • The second one is how can we improve our direct-to-consumer assets, and we're putting a lot of efforts in terms of e-commerce and be more able to reduce the trade margins that -- as a consequence of that.

    第二個是我們如何改善直接面向消費者的資產,我們在電子商務方面付出了很多努力,並且更有能力降低貿易利潤——因此。

  • And there is already a trend, as I explained, in the closed system, which helps us.

    正如我所解釋的,在封閉系統中已經有一種趨勢,這對我們有幫助。

  • And for sure, PMTA will open up a contestable space around $1.5 billion.

    可以肯定的是,PMTA 將開闢一個 15 億美元左右的競爭空間。

  • And we believe that we are very well positioned with the products that we have currently and the momentum is there.

    我們相信,我們在目前擁有的產品方面處於非常有利的地位,而且勢頭在那裡。

  • So I think that this all will play together because this will generate more scale and also revert in improved profitability.

    因此,我認為這一切將共同發揮作用,因為這將產生更大的規模,並恢復盈利能力的提高。

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • I guess the question is, for my model, in 5 years from now, what should I be modeling, roughly speaking?

    我想問題是,對於我的模型,從現在起 5 年後,粗略地說,我應該建模什麼?

  • Could you provide maybe a range on profitability for the segment?

    您能否提供該細分市場的盈利能力範圍?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • GBP 5 billion in New Categories.

    50 億英鎊的新類別。

  • We have to take it step by step.

    我們必須一步一步來。

  • The regulatory environment is evolving rapidly.

    監管環境正在迅速發展。

  • The level of taxation in the different categories, the 3 categories, THP, you see that they are growing more and more towards full taxation on tobacco.

    不同類別的稅收水平,這 3 個類別,THP,你會看到它們越來越朝著對煙草全面徵稅的方向發展。

  • You have that already in North Asia, you have that already in the U.S. In terms of e-cigarettes, there was a fragmentation of the market that was very important.

    北亞已經有,美國也有。就電子煙而言,市場的碎片化非常重要。

  • And now we see that there's a concentration in closed system.

    現在我們看到在封閉系統中存在一種濃度。

  • There's more product so watch it, that will create a concentration.

    有更多的產品,所以注意它,這將產生一種集中。

  • And as Tadeu said, the fact of having bigger brands, more economies of scale and distribution, that will cost you less because now that we have age verification competitors that has applied, then suddenly, I'm in agreement with our marketing colleagues to go for e-cigarettes into e-commerce.

    正如 Tadeu 所說,擁有更大的品牌、更多的規模經濟和分銷,這將降低您的成本,因為現在我們已經應用了年齡驗證競爭對手,然後突然間,我同意我們的營銷同事去讓電子煙進入電子商務。

  • But we have to make sure that we understand, and it's not the time to give guidance related to these things, it's the time for us to take leadership in these different categories and to make sure that we have the right products on the right consumer.

    但我們必須確保我們理解,現在不是提供與這些事情相關的指導的時候,現在是我們在這些不同類別中發揮領導作用並確保我們為正確的消費者提供正確產品的時候了。

  • What is the most important to me is that because we have been multi-category since many years now, we have reinforced our capabilities.

    對我來說最重要的是,因為我們多年來一直是多類別的,所以我們加強了我們的能力。

  • As I said, we've recruited 350 managers in all these areas of New Categories going from product development to design, to insights.

    正如我所說,我們在新類別的所有這些領域招聘了 350 名經理,從產品開發到設計再到洞察力。

  • We are the only 1 to have 4 categories in site that are available to us and have done pilots, market tests and launches that have been successful.

    我們是唯一一家在網站上有 4 個類別可供我們使用,並且已經成功完成試點、市場測試和發布的 1 家。

  • Just from memory, ePen 3 and the equivalent of the Alto in Europe is product of the year.

    僅憑記憶,ePen 3 和歐洲的 Alto 同等產品是年度產品。

  • That means that the reception from the consumer is extremely good.

    這意味著消費者的反響非常好。

  • From that base, we grow share in these 3 categories and we'll continue to do so.

    在此基礎上,我們在這 3 個類別中的份額增加,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

    Nico Von Stackelberg - Research Analyst

  • And final question for me, please.

    請給我最後一個問題。

  • On -- when I look at the large gap between adjusted and reported profits, obviously, a lot of these one-offs are -- they're genuinely one-off in nature, and I appreciate that you've quantified them, which is quite useful, so thank you for that.

    開——當我看到調整後利潤和報告利潤之間的巨大差距時,很明顯,這些一次性的很多都是——它們本質上是一次性的,我很感激你已經量化了它們,這是非常有用,所以謝謝你。

  • But I guess the question is, for the year ahead and maybe for the couple of years ahead, could you provide us any sort of color on what the sort of like gap maybe?

    但我想問題是,對於未來的一年,也許是未來的幾年,你能否為我們提供任何關於可能的差距的顏色?

  • Or what is the restructuring charge you may foresee?

    或者您可以預見的重組費用是多少?

  • Just generally, if you could explain your thinking on that going forward.

    一般來說,如果你能解釋你對未來的想法。

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think it's important to see on the restructuring.

    我認為看到重組很重要。

  • We are increasing from 2018, mainly as a consequence of the project Quantum in the restructuring side.

    我們從 2018 年開始增加,主要是由於重組方面的 Quantum 項目。

  • The element of that is just being on the restructuring side.

    其中的元素只是在重組方面。

  • Other than that, the vast majority, like you said, is noncash item and that is difficult to predict.

    除此之外,絕大多數,就像你說的,是非現金項目,這很難預測。

  • And we -- one of the biggest ticket item there was related to the charge in respect of Québec case, like we have disclosed already in the half year.

    我們——最大的票項目之一與魁北克案件的指控有關,就像我們在半年中已經披露的那樣。

  • In terms of cash flow, in 2019, we saw a slight decline in terms of adjusting items compared with the year before.

    現金流方面,2019年調整項目較上年略有下降。

  • And although we have bigger ticket items to cover in 2020, which is the Quantum itself plus tax case in Russia, we have already been working, and we are not expect to have -- to be a bigger trend in terms of cash for next year, given the other actions that we are making.

    儘管我們在 2020 年有更大的票價項目要覆蓋,即 Quantum 本身加上俄羅斯的稅收案例,但我們已經在努力,而且我們預計不會 - 成為明年現金方面的更大趨勢,考慮到我們正在採取的其他行動。

  • From then, if we have to continue with Quantum, which is a restructuring progress.

    從那時起,如果我們要繼續用Quantum,這是一個重組的進展。

  • But it's difficult to estimate the overall adjusting item for there are elements there that are, like you said, very one-off.

    但是很難估計整體調整項目,因為那裡有一些元素,就像你說的那樣,非常一次性。

  • Yes, San.

    是的,桑。

  • Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

    Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

  • Sanath from Morgan Stanley.

    來自摩根士丹利的 Sanath。

  • I have 3 questions, largely on the U.S. market.

    我有 3 個問題,主要針對美國市場。

  • First of all, you shared your views about the U.S. cigarette volumes for 2020, where you expect it to be, about 5%.

    首先,您分享了您對 2020 年美國捲菸銷量的看法,您預計該銷量約為 5%。

  • Could you just help us understand how you're thinking about the drag or the reduced drag from vaping and the impact of Tobacco 21 on your numbers.

    您能否幫助我們了解您如何看待電子煙帶來的阻力或減少的阻力以及煙草 21 對您的數據的影響。

  • And maybe just...

    也許只是...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Can I start on that one?

    我可以從那個開始嗎?

  • Then we go to the other question.

    然後我們轉到另一個問題。

  • So the 2021 -- it's a very good question.

    所以 2021 年——這是一個非常好的問題。

  • Thank you very much for asking.

    非常感謝您的提問。

  • There, you have already 15 states in the U.S. that are above 21 years old, and we saw that the impact was very minimal.

    在那裡,美國已有 15 個州的歷史超過 21 年,我們看到影響非常小。

  • But for a responsible company like us, it's a very good regulation coming forward.

    但對於像我們這樣負責任的公司來說,這是一個非常好的法規。

  • Then the second thing is you have to remember that in the U.S., we have a share above 21 years old of 44% annual (inaudible) so we are better positioned than our current total market share in the U.S. So that was for your first question.

    然後第二件事是您必須記住,在美國,我們 21 歲以上的市場份額為 44%(聽不清),因此我們的定位比我們目前在美國的總市場份額更好。所以這是您的第一個問題.

  • Then your second question?

    那麼你的第二個問題呢?

  • Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

    Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

  • So basically, also from a longer-term perspective, you always said historically that you're adding consumers of nicotine, too.

    所以基本上,從長期的角度來看,你總是說你也在增加尼古丁的消費者。

  • How do you see that evolving in the U.S.?

    你如何看待美國的發展?

  • Or have you seen it in 2020 or 2019?

    或者你在 2020 年或 2019 年見過嗎?

  • And going forward, post '21 -- Tobacco 21 post-PMTA, how do you see this consumer acquisition going forward?

    展望未來,在 21 年之後——PMTA 之後的 21 年煙草,您如何看待這種消費者收購的未來?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I mean, without going too much into detail because that's forward-looking, but what we saw in 2019, with the crisis in terms of e-cigarettes, is that it was not that consumers from e-cigarettes were rushing back to cigarettes, but rather consumers from combustible were less going to e-cigarettes because they had the doubt in terms of the product.

    我的意思是,沒有太多細節,因為那是前瞻性的,但我們在 2019 年看到的,隨著電子煙的危機,並不是電子煙的消費者急於回到香煙,而是相反,可燃物的消費者不太喜歡電子煙,因為他們對產品有疑問。

  • I think that the regulatory framework that's been put in by the FDA is a valid one.

    我認為 FDA 制定的監管框架是有效的。

  • It's a first step, a very big first step in the right direction and there might be more to come.

    這是第一步,是朝著正確方向邁出的非常大的第一步,未來可能還會有更多。

  • Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

    Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

  • And so one of your competitors put out a comment at CAGNY saying by the end of this decade, probably, they'll end up being equal-sized revenues in NGP and combustible in the U.S. Do you feel very strongly about that?

    因此,您的一位競爭對手在 CAGNY 發表評論說,到本十年末,他們最終可能會在 NGP 中獲得同等規模的收入,並且在美國可燃。您對此感覺非常強烈嗎?

  • Or how do you see the evolution of that market there?

    或者您如何看待該市場的演變?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I think I've been very clear at the beginning of my presentation for the first time in terms of our purpose, and I take you back to that one.

    我想我第一次在我的演講開始時就我們的目的非常清楚,我帶你回到那個。

  • What's important is we believe, we strongly believe in the quality of our tobacco business, and we strongly believe that you have to have, at the same time, a strong arm in New Categories.

    重要的是我們相信,我們堅信我們的煙草業務的質量,我們堅信您必須同時擁有新品類的強大力量。

  • We have 3 categories that are important because we don't believe that one size fits all.

    我們有 3 個重要的類別,因為我們不相信一種尺寸適合所有人。

  • We do believe that the consumers are having some aspirations in terms of risk-reduced products and that, depending on geographies, depending on culture, depending on excise environment and depending on regulatory environment, you need multiple approaches.

    我們確實相信,消費者對降低風險的產品有一些願望,並且根據地域、文化、消費稅環境和監管環境的不同,您需要多種方法。

  • Of course, it takes a lot of energy, a lot of resources in order to cope with that.

    當然,這需要大量的精力、大量的資源來應對。

  • But I think it gives us a head start on all competition across the industry in terms of being successful for the future.

    但我認為,就未來的成功而言,它讓我們在整個行業的所有競爭中處於領先地位。

  • And that's why I reiterate, despite the crisis and the scale measures that have happened last year and this year, that we will achieve the GBP 5 billion moving forward as an ambition.

    這就是為什麼我重申,儘管去年和今年發生了危機和採取了大規模措施,但我們將實現 50 億英鎊的目標,並將其作為前進的目標。

  • Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

    Sanath Sudarsan - Research Associate

  • And then I'm cheekily just asking last one.

    然後我厚顏無恥地問最後一個。

  • On the leverage you highlighted, you'll be below 3 turns by 2021.

    根據您強調的槓桿,到 2021 年您將低於 3 轉。

  • Is there a target internally in terms of where you would like to be?

    就您想成為的目標而言,內部是否有目標?

  • Or what's the optimum rate you would like to have?

    或者您想要的最佳匯率是多少?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • No, it's a very good question.

    不,這是一個非常好的問題。

  • I'm not going to give a target related to that.

    我不會給出與此相關的目標。

  • What I'm saying is one of the main reasons why we reduced guidance this year, the number of guidance, that we say 3% to 5% in terms of revenue, high single-digit in terms of EPS, the 65% in terms of dividend and the deleveraging is because I want to have a little bit more space to be able to take the opportunities in the market whilst continuing to deliver on the financial metrics of the company and we'll continue to do so.

    我要說的是我們今年減少指導的主要原因之一,指導數量,我們說收入減少 3% 到 5%,每股收益高個位數,65%股息和去槓桿化是因為我希望有更多的空間能夠抓住市場機會,同時繼續實現公司的財務指標,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • The first year last year, we had a situation that was more difficult.

    去年的第一年,我們的情況更加困難。

  • We gave more guidance.

    我們給予了更多的指導。

  • I think it's more reasonable now to be in a situation where we have a little bit more space in order to make the right calls for the business and to invest.

    我認為現在更合理的是,我們有更多的空間來對業務和投資做出正確的呼籲。

  • I'll just remind you that in 2019, we are delivering the financial results, and at the same time, we invested GBP 500 million more in terms of marketing investments, GBP 500 million more.

    我只想提醒你,在 2019 年,我們正在交付財務業績,同時,我們在營銷投資方面又投入了 5 億英鎊,增加了 5 億英鎊。

  • And I will continue to invest in the New Categories at the right pace in order to make sure that our multi-category approach is the right one and it is showing the right approach from the consumers.

    我將繼續以正確的速度投資新品類,以確保我們的多品類方法是正確的,它向消費者展示了正確的方法。

  • Thank you.

    謝謝你。

  • Adam, yes?

    亞當,是嗎?

  • Sorry, Adam.

    對不起,亞當。

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • Can -- as always -- can I ask you sort of 3 questions?

    可以 - 像往常一樣 - 我可以問你三個問題嗎?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Go one by one because they're always very sharp, your questions, I want to make sure.

    一個接一個,因為他們總是很尖銳,你的問題,我想確定。

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • The first question, can you talk about the -- in Japan, you've been very successful in the little cigar category.

    第一個問題,你能談談 - 在日本,你在小雪茄類別中非常成功。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Sorry, in the?

    對不起,在?

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • With little cigars.

    帶著小雪茄。

  • This new...

    這個新...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Oh, yes, yes, yes.

    哦,是的,是的,是的。

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • Can you talk about how you don't see -- well, then, more importantly, how you expect that going forward?

    你能談談你怎麼看不到 - 那麼,更重要的是,你對未來的期望如何?

  • That's the first question.

    這是第一個問題。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • So let's start with that one.

    所以讓我們從那個開始。

  • Thank you, Adam.

    謝謝你,亞當。

  • I think that there was -- there was a historical thing that was there in Japan, which was, first, low taxation for some cigarette products, normal cigarette products.

    我認為日本有一個歷史性的東西,首先是對某些捲菸產品,普通捲菸產品徵收低稅。

  • And that has been closed and it will be closed gradually by the government in Japan.

    並且已經關閉,日本政府將逐步關閉。

  • The second thing is there was that opportunity related to these, I would say, mini cigars, it goes in a way but more in the sense of cigarettes and we took that opportunity because, to the difference of other players, we consider that the combustible business is extremely important.

    第二件事是與這些相關的機會,我想說,迷你雪茄,它在某種程度上,但更多地是在香煙的意義上,我們抓住了這個機會,因為與其他玩家不同的是,我們認為可燃物業務極其重要。

  • And that's why when we speak about our results in Japan, we say [19.1] a share in terms of total nicotine offer on the market.

    這就是為什麼當我們談到我們在日本的結果時,我們會說 [19.1] 佔市場上尼古丁總供應量的份額。

  • That category, the same way as the lower taxation that has happened historically in Japan, will close and it goes around.

    與日本歷史上發生的較低稅收一樣,該類別將關閉並繼續存在。

  • That gives us -- and it has given us the possibility to continue to grow in that category.

    這給了我們 - 它給了我們在該類別中繼續增長的可能性。

  • I think it was a very useful step towards having a better value share and a better market share in Japan.

    我認為這是朝著在日本獲得更好的價值份額和更好的市場份額邁出的非常有用的一步。

  • Did that answer your question, Adam?

    這回答了你的問題嗎,亞當?

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • I think so, very clearly.

    我想是的,非常清楚。

  • Next question, probably the most important question is trade -- well, I'll start with another one.

    下一個問題,可能最重要的問題是貿易——好吧,我將從另一個開始。

  • In menthol regulation by state...

    在國家薄荷醇法規中...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • In menthol regulation by state, are you talking about the U.S.?

    在各州對薄荷醇的監管中,您指的是美國嗎?

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • So talking about the U.S., we're now seeing more states at least threatening to ban menthol.

    所以談到美國,我們現在看到更多的州至少威脅要禁止薄荷醇。

  • How concerned should we be about that?

    我們應該對此有多擔心?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I think there are 2 things.

    我認為有兩件事。

  • One is -- it's a very good question.

    一個是 - 這是一個非常好的問題。

  • One is the fact that the FDA, after so many years, is still allowing menthol in cigarettes and also still allowing menthol in e-cigarettes.

    其中之一是,經過這麼多年,FDA 仍然允許在香煙中使用薄荷醇,並且仍然允許在電子煙中使用薄荷醇。

  • And that is extremely recent, so there is no new science related to that.

    那是最近才出現的,所以沒有與之相關的新科學。

  • At state level or city level, some decide to ban menthol.

    在州一級或市一級,有些人決定禁止薄荷醇。

  • Okay, what's happening is that the U.S. is 50 states and the borders are what they are in the U.S. So you see a, I would say, potential acceleration of cross borders.

    好的,正在發生的事情是美國有 50 個州,邊界就是美國的邊界。所以你會看到,我會說,跨境的潛在加速。

  • And I don't think that this is going to be something that is extremely sustainable in the future.

    而且我認為這在未來不會是非常可持續的事情。

  • But I understand why cities or states are taking the view.

    但我理解為什麼城市或州會採取這種觀點。

  • Are we for it?

    我們是為了它嗎?

  • The answer is no, because we believe in consumer choice, and there is no material scientific evidence that has said that there is a problem related to menthol.

    答案是否定的,因為我們相信消費者的選擇,並且沒有實質性的科學證據表明存在與薄荷醇有關的問題。

  • Did that answer your question, Adam?

    這回答了你的問題嗎,亞當?

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • I think so, yes.

    我想是的,是的。

  • So the third question, more general.

    所以第三個問題,更籠統。

  • You've spoken before about creating a better process for innovation and a better -- and perhaps more sharp commercial execution around the next-generation products.

    您之前說過要為創新創造一個更好的流程,並圍繞下一代產品進行更好的——也許是更敏銳的商業執行。

  • So can you just talk about how the process of developing new products, how the process is improving?

    那麼你能不能談談新產品開發的過程是怎樣的,這個過程是怎樣改進的?

  • Has any change happened in the last 12 months?

    過去 12 個月內是否發生了任何變化?

  • How do you expect that to change...

    你希望它如何改變...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • For sure.

    當然。

  • I mean, what we have done is we've put a lot of investment in terms of insight.

    我的意思是,我們所做的是我們在洞察力方面投入了大量資金。

  • The area also where we've accelerated quite sharply is everything that's related to big data.

    與大數據相關的所有領域也是我們加速發展的領域。

  • And the social listening is also a part that is very important.

    社交聆聽也是非常重要的一部分。

  • Now further and beyond that, on the definition -- that's about the consumer.

    現在更進一步,關於定義 - 這是關於消費者的。

  • Further -- and remember, we're the only ones to have data and information and insight on 4 categories.

    進一步——請記住,我們是唯一擁有 4 個類別的數據、信息和洞察力的人。

  • Yes?

    是的?

  • Further and beyond that, what's very important for us is the 4 Ds of R&D were split in the company before, now they're all in the same place.

    更重要的是,對我們來說非常重要的是,4個研發部門以前在公司裡是分開的,現在他們都在同一個地方。

  • So there is one body, which is the new category group that is looking at all this, with strong support from IDT, so digital and technology.

    因此,有一個機構,即正在關注這一切的新類別組,得到了 IDT 的大力支持,包括數字和技術。

  • I think that what it gives us is the possibility to work much better and to understand much better the consumer needs.

    我認為它為我們提供了更好地工作和更好地理解消費者需求的可能性。

  • I think that one of which that is maybe the most important one is the satisfaction that consumers get out of these products.

    我認為其中最重要的一個可能是消費者對這些產品的滿意度。

  • And you know that in THP, for instance, there is 25% of segment share of total nicotine in Japan, and that's the only country in the world.

    你知道,例如,在 THP 中,日本佔尼古丁總量的 25%,這是世界上唯一的國家。

  • You know that in Korea, it has peaked at a point and it has reduced now to 8% despite players that are there, which includes the local strong company.

    你知道,在韓國,它曾一度達到頂峰,現在已經下降到 8%,儘管那裡有包括當地強大公司在內的玩家。

  • We know that in Europe, there is only traction in a very limited number of countries.

    我們知道,在歐洲,只有非常有限的幾個國家有牽引力。

  • We know that the more you go into the scale of tar and nic, if you go to Canada, for instance, despite the fact that THP has been there 3 years earlier than e-cigarette, e-cigarette is now much bigger than THP.

    我們知道,你越了解 tar 和 nic 的規模,例如,如果你去加拿大,儘管 THP 比電子煙早 3 年,但現在電子煙比 THP 大得多。

  • We know that in the U.S., but that's only the -- in this infancy, we'll see how it will develop.

    我們在美國知道這一點,但這只是——在這個嬰儿期,我們將看看它會如何發展。

  • And I'm not undermining the possibility of THP that can grow in the U.S., but the environment does not seem very, I would say, favorable in the sense that you have 2 other categories that are extremely well-established already.

    而且我並沒有削弱 THP 在美國發展的可能性,但我想說,從某種意義上說,環境似乎不是很有利,因為您還有其他兩個已經非常完善的類別。

  • And when we see that 2 other categories are well established, it's very difficult for the third category to grow.

    當我們看到其他兩個類別已經很成熟時,第三個類別很難增長。

  • So I think that what we've done in terms of our R&D and our understanding of the consumer has been massively stepped up and we've invested much more money in the course of 2019 in order to make sure that we deliver related to that.

    因此,我認為我們在研發和對消費者的理解方面所做的工作已經大大加強,我們在 2019 年投入了更多資金,以確保我們提供與此相關的產品。

  • Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

    Adam Justin Spielman - MD and European Tobacco and Beverage Analyst

  • And just to follow up on that, should we expect the same vapor to see important new products?

    只是為了跟進,我們是否應該期待同樣的蒸汽看到重要的新產品?

  • And how -- when are we going to see some results of a better process?

    以及如何 - 我們何時才能看到更好流程的一些結果?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think -- I don't want to go -- it's a very good question, Adam.

    我認為——我不想去——這是一個非常好的問題,亞當。

  • I don't want to go in product definition because then I would give away too much.

    我不想進入產品定義,因為那樣我會放棄太多。

  • But yes, the reality is you have now the segment, we're a leader worldwide.

    但是,是的,現實是您現在擁有該細分市場,我們是全球領導者。

  • You look at the segment itself, the number or the percentage of closed system is there, increasing and very strong.

    你看看細分市場本身,封閉系統的數量或百分比在那裡,增加並且非常強大。

  • It has a very, very important consequence, which is the regulatory framework and the product stewardship.

    它有一個非常非常重要的後果,即監管框架和產品管理。

  • You have a device that goes with the liquid that goes with the system.

    您有一個設備可以與系統中的液體一起使用。

  • This is the future moving forward.

    這是未來前進的方向。

  • After that, you have to make sure that you continue to develop these products.

    之後,您必須確保繼續開發這些產品。

  • And the products that we have at the moment in the market will evolve in the next 2, 3, 4 years because there are a lot of cost opportunities and improvement opportunities in terms of satisfaction moving forward.

    我們目前在市場上擁有的產品將在未來 2 年、3 年、4 年發展,因為在未來的滿意度方面存在大量成本機會和改進機會。

  • Other questions?

    其他問題?

  • That would be potentially the last question or last 2 questions from what Mike is telling me from the back.

    這可能是邁克從後面告訴我的最後一個問題或最後兩個問題。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • It's Chas Manso from SocGen.

    是法國興業銀行的 Chas Manso。

  • A couple of few, if I may.

    幾個,如果可以的話。

  • I'll take one at a time.

    我一次拿一個。

  • First of all, a quick one.

    首先,一個快速的。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • I'm French, so you have to go slow.

    我是法國人,所以你得慢慢來。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • In Canada, has there been any progress in the discussions?

    在加拿大,討論是否有任何進展?

  • And is it possible to break out what the profitability of Canada was in...

    是否有可能打破加拿大的盈利能力...

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • CCAA], CCAA?

    CCAA],CCAA?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • Has there been any progress in terms of forming a resolution?

    在形成決議方面是否有任何進展?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • Yes, we have -- the industry is in the process of negotiation through a mediator that was established with the plaintiffs in the -- not just in the Ontario but all provinces.

    是的,我們已經 - 該行業正在通過與原告建立的調解員進行談判 - 不僅在安大略省,而且在所有省份。

  • We -- the latest news we heard is that there was this stay of all the process, it was extended until September.

    我們 - 我們聽到的最新消息是,所有流程都暫停了,它被延長到了 9 月。

  • And we are confident that we can be able to come up with a negotiation that represent a growing concern for all the players moving forward.

    我們有信心,我們能夠提出一個談判,這代表了所有前進的球員越來越關注的問題。

  • But I cannot say much more about that because it's quite confidential in the process now.

    但是我不能說更多,因為現在在這個過程中是非常機密的。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • Is there any sort of -- you mentioned the extension until September.

    有沒有什麼——你提到延長到 9 月。

  • Is that there for the beginning of the process?

    那是過程的開始嗎?

  • Or is there a time frame for a potential resolution?

    或者是否有潛在解決方案的時間框架?

  • Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

    Tadeu Luiz Marroco - Finance Director, Member of Management Board & Executive Director

  • No, it's just the fact that they have a stay in place, trying to come to a type of agreement.

    不,這只是他們停留在原地,試圖達成某種協議的事實。

  • But to be honest, I don't expect anything happening in the short term.

    但老實說,我預計短期內不會發生任何事情。

  • I mean, end of the year, eventually a couple of years.

    我的意思是,年底,最終幾年。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Secondly, going back to aged tobacco.

    其次,回到陳年煙草。

  • Clearly, your focus seems to be on Eastern Europe.

    顯然,您的重點似乎是東歐。

  • So just to be clear, in 2020, when the -- your investment outside of Japan in tobacco is going to be very much focused on Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine.

    因此,需要明確的是,到 2020 年,您在日本以外的煙草投資將非常集中在俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦和烏克蘭。

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes, I mean, we're going to expand our footprint for the 3 different categories, and we're going to make sure that we're so successful where we're going.

    是的,我的意思是,我們將擴大 3 個不同類別的足跡,我們將確保我們在我們要去的地方取得成功。

  • I think we'll go step by step.

    我想我們會一步一步走。

  • And as I said earlier to the question of Adam, what's extremely important -- and so I like the question, what's extremely important is that we have created, in 2018 and 2019, the capabilities and the resources, put in place the resources, so that we are able to continue to grow.

    正如我之前對亞當的問題所說,什麼是極其重要的——所以我喜歡這個問題,極其重要的是我們在 2018 年和 2019 年創造了能力和資源,將資源到位,所以我們能夠繼續成長。

  • Even with the THP and oral, you remember I said last year, we are using our current tobacco machines to do our THP products because I don't want to be in a situation whereby I'm ending up with the CapEx exposure that is much too high compared to the regulatory framework.

    即使是 THP 和口腔,你記得我去年說過,我們正在使用我們目前的煙草機器來生產我們的 THP 產品,因為我不希望處於這樣一種情況,即我最終會面臨大量的資本支出與監管框架相比太高了。

  • So I think that Tadeu said very clearly that the CapEx will be in line with depreciation.

    所以我認為 Tadeu 說得很清楚,資本支出將與折舊一致。

  • First year in many years that we are able to do that in 2020, and that's a very good news related to that.

    多年來我們能夠在 2020 年做到這一點的第一年,這是一個與此相關的非常好的消息。

  • So our geographical footprint will continue to expand but we'll speak more about that at the Investor Day.

    因此,我們的地理足跡將繼續擴大,但我們將在投資者日更多地談論這一點。

  • Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

    Charles Manso de Zuniga - Director of Consumer Equity Research

  • And lastly, on the sort of regulatory front and such.

    最後,在監管方面等方面。

  • Is there any sign that people like -- organizations like the WHO are moving much more towards the sort of harm reduction view of the world?

    是否有任何跡象表明人們喜歡——像世界衛生組織這樣的組織正在朝著減少危害的世界觀邁進更多?

  • Or do we remain stuck in a sort of differential world where, in particular, transnational organization still believe in quit or die?

    或者我們是否仍然停留在一種差異化的世界中,特別是跨國組織仍然相信退出或死亡?

  • Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

    Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - CEO, Member of Management Board & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • I think what you have to do -- it's a very good question.

    我認為你必須做的——這是一個非常好的問題。

  • I think what you have to do is to follow the consumer first.

    我認為你要做的就是先跟隨消費者。

  • And the consumers are buying the products that we're selling.

    消費者正在購買我們銷售的產品。

  • We have very good products you want ship on these products, and we'll continue to do so.

    我們有非常好的產品,您希望在這些產品上發貨,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Secondly, we have a very responsible marketing approach to all the activities that we do.

    其次,我們對我們所做的所有活動都有非常負責任的營銷方法。

  • Why?

    為什麼?

  • Because that is about the sustainability of the group moving forward.

    因為這關乎集團前進的可持續性。

  • And the third thing that is also very important is that we will go step-by-step in the development of these products, and we engage with regulators as required, both the FDA or other bodies across the geographies in which we operate, in order to have the right scientific base that is put forward to them and the right benefit of these categories that is put to them.

    第三件事也非常重要,我們將逐步開發這些產品,並根據需要與監管機構合作,包括 FDA 或我們經營所在地區的其他機構,以便擁有向他們提出的正確的科學基礎以及向他們提出的這些類別的正確利益。

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Last one?

    最後一個?

  • No.

    不。

  • So thank you very much.

    所以非常感謝。

  • I mean, I must say, as you know, it's my first year as CEO, and before that, I was COO so I know this company very well.

    我的意思是,我必須說,如你所知,這是我擔任 CEO 的第一年,在此之前,我是首席運營官,所以我非常了解這家公司。

  • I know the muscle that this company has.

    我知道這家公司的實力。

  • We have done a lot of restructuring in our business to become faster, simpler and more agile.

    我們對業務進行了大量重組,以變得更快、更簡單、更敏捷。

  • We're doing it.

    我們正在做。

  • We're doing it in short terms of time.

    我們正在短時間內完成它。

  • Why?

    為什麼?

  • Because I want to transform this company fast.

    因為我想快速改造這家公司。

  • We have created the foundations in 2018 and 2019 to have a strong base on our tobacco business, very strong base on our tobacco business with huge revenue growth and with value share growth, and we are taking the resources from there in order to grow our New Categories.

    我們在 2018 年和 2019 年奠定了基礎,以在我們的煙草業務上打下堅實的基礎,在我們的煙草業務基礎上擁有巨大的收入增長和價值份額增長,我們正在從那裡獲取資源以發展我們的新類別。

  • We have invested GBP 500 million more in 2019 in the New Categories.

    2019 年,我們在新類別中又投資了 5 億英鎊。

  • We grew share in the 3 categories.

    我們在 3 個類別中的份額有所增長。

  • We have delivered within the guidance, and we'll continue to perform in these New Categories and grow share, of course, there will be skirmishes all over the place because there's always a country that decides that regulatory framework has to change, and there's always a country that will decide that a bit more taxation is required from these different markets.

    我們已經在指導範圍內交付,我們將繼續在這些新類別中表現並增加份額,當然,到處都會有小衝突,因為總有一個國家決定監管框架必須改變,而且總是有一個國家將決定對這些不同的市場徵收更多的稅。

  • All in all, what we want to create is a better tomorrow for society, for the stakeholders that we have and including the shareholders.

    總而言之,我們要為社會,為我們擁有的利益相關者,包括股東創造一個更美好的明天。

  • We have demonstrated in the last 2 years that despite the waves and despite the negative environment that has been there, we have been able, in 2019, to deliver revenue growth at 5.6%, to deliver the dividend and to make sure that we continue to deliver the deleveraging of the company and we'll continue to do so.

    在過去 2 年中,我們已經證明,儘管有波濤洶湧,儘管存在負面環境,我們仍然能夠在 2019 年實現 5.6% 的收入增長、派發股息並確保我們繼續實現公司的去槓桿化,我們將繼續這樣做。

  • Less guidance is the right thing to do because that gives me the flexibility in order to move forward, but we'll give you guidance on the most important elements.

    較少的指導是正確的做法,因為這給了我前進的靈活性,但我們會在最重要的元素上為您提供指導。

  • Then I will navigate in terms of the different opportunities because it is all the aim of gaining opportunities and flexibility in the organization and our resource allocation.

    然後我將根據不同的機會進行導航,因為這都是在組織和我們的資源分配中獲得機會和靈活性的目標。

  • We will continue to deliver, as we said, in 2020, in terms of 3% to 5% and in terms of high single-digit related to EPS.

    正如我們所說,我們將在 2020 年繼續交付 3% 至 5% 的收益,以及與 EPS 相關的高個位數。

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This now concludes our conference call.

    現在結束我們的電話會議。

  • Thank you all for attending.

    謝謝大家的出席。

  • You may now disconnect your lines.

    您現在可以斷開線路。