使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
So good morning, everyone, and welcome to British American Tobacco 2018 Preliminary Presentation.
大家早上好,歡迎收看英美煙草 2018 年初步演示。
I am Nicandro Durante, Chief Executive of British American Tobacco.
我是英美煙草公司的首席執行官 Nicandro Durante。
And with me this morning is Jack Bowles, Chief Executive Designate; and Ben Stevens, Finance Director.
今天早上和我一起的是候任首席執行官傑克鮑爾斯;和財務總監 Ben Stevens。
Thank you all for coming to this results presentation, which will be my last before Jack drops the designate part of his title and becomes Chief Executive in April.
感謝大家出席本次業績報告會,這將是傑克在 4 月份放棄其頭銜的指定部分並成為首席執行官之前的最後一次報告。
As always, a warm welcome to those of you who are listening on the conference call or listening via our website bat.com.
一如既往,熱烈歡迎那些正在聽電話會議或通過我們的網站 bat.com 收聽的人。
As usual, after taking you through the results presentation, there will be an opportunity for those of you in the audience to ask questions.
與往常一樣,在帶您完成結果演示後,觀眾中的各位將有機會提問。
Before I start the presentation, I will take you that you have all seen and read the disclaimer on Page 2 and 3.
在我開始演講之前,我會告訴你們你們都已經看到並閱讀了第 2 頁和第 3 頁的免責聲明。
It is clear that these results have benefited significantly from the inclusion of Reynolds as a fully-owned subsidiary.
很明顯,這些結果顯著受益於將 Reynolds 納入全資子公司。
Given this, volume, revenue and profit from operations will be presented as though the group had owned the acquisitions made in 2017 for the whole of last year.
鑑於此,營業額、收入和利潤將被列為就好像該集團在去年全年擁有 2017 年進行的收購一樣。
We will refer to comparison of results on this basis as performance -- as a representative basis.
我們將在此基礎上的結果比較稱為性能——作為代表性基礎。
This comparison will provide shareholders with a better understanding of like-for-like performance.
這種比較將使股東更好地了解同類業績。
I would like to begin with a few highlights from the results.
我想從結果中的一些亮點開始。
I am pleased to say we have delivered another very strong performance in 2018 with our reported results benefiting from the full year impact of the RAI acquisition.
我很高興地說,我們在 2018 年又取得了非常強勁的業績,我們報告的業績受益於 RAI 收購的全年影響。
We exceeded our target of high-single figure earnings growth.
我們超出了高個位數盈利增長的目標。
Adjusted EPS was up 5.2% at current rates, but this was an excellent 11.8% on a constant currency basis.
按當前匯率計算,調整後的每股收益增長了 5.2%,但按固定匯率計算,這是非常出色的 11.8%。
This was driven by the strong growth of our strategic portfolio which grew constant currency representative revenue 8.5%, demonstrating the strength of our brands across all 4 categories.
這是由我們的戰略組合的強勁增長推動的,該組合代表固定貨幣收入增長了 8.5%,展示了我們品牌在所有 4 個類別中的實力。
We continue to consolidate our position in the combustible market, delivering our eighth consecutive year of share growth, with another 40 basis points increase in market share.
我們繼續鞏固我們在可燃物市場的地位,連續第八年實現份額增長,市場份額又增加了 40 個基點。
This is an outstanding performance.
這是一個出色的表現。
In NGP, we almost doubled our revenue from THP and Vapor to reach over GBP 900 million on a constant currency basis.
在 NGP 中,我們從 THP 和 Vapor 獲得的收入幾乎翻了一番,達到超過 9 億英鎊(按固定匯率計算)。
This was lower than our initial aspiration due to the slowdown in the THP category.
由於 THP 類別放緩,這低於我們最初的期望。
Other regions performed well.
其他地區表現良好。
In the U.S., good pricing and continued value share growth delivered a nearly 6% in adjusted representative constant currency operating profit.
在美國,良好的定價和持續的價值份額增長帶來了近 6% 的調整後代表性固定貨幣營業利潤。
This together with the benefits of the U.S. tax reform, which did not form part of our acquisition assessments, means that the RAI deal is well ahead of our financial targets.
這與美國稅制改革的好處(未構成我們收購評估的一部分)一起意味著 RAI 交易遠遠超過了我們的財務目標。
I would like to take this opportunity to acknowledge that our good year for the business in terms of financial performance has not been shared by our investors in terms of the share price.
我想藉此機會承認,就股價而言,我們的投資者並未分享我們在財務業績方面的良好表現。
I'd like to thank you for your continued support.
感謝您一直以來的支持。
We recognize investors are concerned about the long-term outlook for the industry, principally driven by the regulatory announcements in the U.S. and the potential for regulation of menthol.
我們認識到投資者對該行業的長期前景感到擔憂,這主要是受美國監管公告和薄荷醇監管潛力的推動。
I want to reassure our investors that we have a long history of successfully managing through periods of regulatory change and we believe any restrictions are years away.
我想向我們的投資者保證,我們在監管變革時期成功管理方面擁有悠久的歷史,我們相信任何限制都將在數年之後出現。
These results demonstrate that business remains in very good shape and we remain confident in the future.
這些結果表明業務保持良好狀態,我們對未來充滿信心。
This is reflected in the 4% increase in the dividend, which we announced this morning.
這反映在我們今天上午宣布的股息增加 4% 上。
Looking briefly at the reported results, volume, revenue and profit from operations benefited from the full year impact of the RAI acquisition and were up 3%, 25% and 45%, respectively.
簡單看一下報告的結果,銷量、收入和運營利潤受益於 RAI 收購的全年影響,分別增長了 3%、25% 和 45%。
On a representative basis, our global cigarette and THP volume was down 3.5%.
具有代表性的是,我們的全球捲菸和 THP 銷量下降了 3.5%。
In our key markets, which represented around 80% of global volume and where our investment is focused, we outperformed the industry with a decline of 2.7% against the industry estimate to be around 3.4%.
在我們的主要市場,約佔全球銷量的 80%,也是我們的投資重點,我們的表現優於行業,下降了 2.7%,而行業估計為 3.4% 左右。
However, excluding the one-off effects of inventory movements in the supply chain in Russia and the impact of excise increase and supply disruption in the Middle East, underlying volume declined just 1.9%.
然而,排除俄羅斯供應鏈庫存變動的一次性影響以及中東消費稅增加和供應中斷的影響,基礎銷量僅下降 1.9%。
In 2019, we expect industry volume to be down around 3%, and we would expect it to outperform the industry.
2019 年,我們預計行業銷量將下降 3% 左右,我們預計其表現將優於行業。
Constant currency adjusted revenue was up 3.5% on a representative basis, driven by robust price mix in cigarettes of 6% and an overall price mix of 7%.
受 6% 的香煙價格組合和 7% 的整體價格組合的推動,固定匯率調整後的收入具有代表性地增長了 3.5%。
Our Transformation Tobacco agenda delivered another strong growth across THP, Oral and Vapor.
我們的轉型煙草議程在 THP、口服和蒸汽方面實現了又一次強勁增長。
And we are making good progress building global brands across all the 3 categories.
我們在所有 3 個類別中打造全球品牌方面取得了良好進展。
As you're aware, we have a Capital Markets Day planned in 2 weeks' time.
如您所知,我們計劃在 2 週後舉辦資本市場日活動。
When we showcase our products pipeline, which has been in the making for some years, these will demonstrate why we are so confident on achieving our aim of leadership across all those segments.
當我們展示多年來一直在開發的產品線時,這些將證明我們為何如此有信心實現我們在所有這些領域的領導目標。
We continue to expect strong new category growth leading to revenue of GBP 5 billion by 2023, '24.
我們繼續預計到 2023 年,新品類的強勁增長將帶來 50 億英鎊的收入,'24。
In 2018, THP revenue increased over 180%, driven by an increase in consumables volume to GBP 7 billion.
2018 年,THP 收入增長超過 180%,這主要得益於消耗品銷量增加至 70 億英鎊。
Although it's still in the early stages of rollout in many markets, we also saw a consistent growth across the other 14 THP markets.
儘管它在許多市場仍處於推出的早期階段,但我們也看到了其他 14 個 THP 市場的持續增長。
In oral, our strong portfolio of brands in both the traditional and modern oral categories drove a strategic revenue growth of 11%, on an adjusted representative constant-currency basis.
在口服方面,我們在傳統和現代口服類別中的強大品牌組合推動戰略收入增長 11%,以調整後的代表性固定貨幣為基礎。
In modern oral, our range of low-tobacco and tobacco-free products under the EPOK and Lyft brands grew revenue 140% on a representative constant currency basis.
在現代口腔領域,我們 EPOK 和 Lyft 品牌的低煙草和無菸草產品系列在代表性固定貨幣基礎上的收入增長了 140%。
In vapor, we saw significant growth in both volume and value across our 15 vapor markets.
在蒸氣方面,我們看到 15 個蒸氣市場的數量和價值都顯著增長。
Total volume was up 35% on a representative basis with good performances in the world's 3 largest vapor markets, the U.S., U.K. and France.
總銷量有代表性地增長了 35%,在全球 3 個最大的蒸汽市場美國、英國和法國表現良好。
Vapor revenue from consumables grew 27% while total vapor revenue, including device, was up 26% on a constant representative basis.
來自消耗品的蒸汽收入增長了 27%,而包括設備在內的蒸汽總收入在固定代表性的基礎上增長了 26%。
We are the undisputed leader in the U.K. and have made good progress in the U.S. with the performance of the Vuse franchise and launch of Alto.
我們是英國無可爭議的領導者,並且隨著 Vuse 特許經營權的表現和 Alto 的推出,我們在美國取得了良好的進展。
So in summary, BAT has reported another great set of results.
因此,總而言之,BAT 報告了另一組出色的結果。
As you can see from this slide, excluding the impact of currency movements, this is not a one-off.
從這張幻燈片中可以看出,排除貨幣變動的影響,這不是一次性的。
We have an excellent track record of delivering consistent EPS and consistent adjusted diluted earnings growth year in, year out.
我們在年復一年地提供一致的每股收益和一致的調整後攤薄收益增長方面有著出色的記錄。
We have always delivered on our commitment to high single-figure constant currency earnings growth, and we remain very confident that we can continue to do so over time, particularly as our new categories move from an investment phase to profit growth.
我們一直致力於實現高個位數的恆定貨幣收益增長,我們仍然非常有信心隨著時間的推移繼續這樣做,尤其是當我們的新類別從投資階段轉向利潤增長階段時。
We have built a great foundation for continued future growth.
我們為未來的持續增長奠定了良好的基礎。
We have pursued a multicategory approach from the outset because different consumers want different products, and these results demonstrate that this continues to be the right strategy.
我們從一開始就採用多類別方法,因為不同的消費者需要不同的產品,這些結果表明這仍然是正確的策略。
Over the last 80 years, we have made substantial investments in these new categories building new capabilities, new brands, new products and a great product pipeline.
在過去的 80 年裡,我們對這些新類別進行了大量投資,以建立新的能力、新品牌、新產品和強大的產品線。
As I hand over the reins to Jack, I'm leaving the group in a strong position.
當我把控制權交給傑克時,我讓團隊處於有利地位。
I'm sure, he'll continue to build the long-term sustainability of the business.
我敢肯定,他將繼續建立業務的長期可持續性。
Jack now will take you through the business performance in a little bit more detail.
傑克現在將帶您更詳細地了解業務績效。
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Thank you, Nicandro.
謝謝你,尼坎德羅。
Good morning, everyone.
大家,早安。
Firstly, let me start with the combustible business, which continues to perform very well.
首先,讓我從可燃物業務開始,該業務繼續表現良好。
This provides the oxygen which will fuel our growth in new categories.
這提供了氧氣,將推動我們在新類別中的增長。
Group market share grew another 40 basis points on top of the 40 basis points achieved last year.
集團市場份額在去年達到 40 個基點的基礎上又增長了 40 個基點。
This was driven by another strong market share performance from our strategic brands, which were up 200 basis points.
這是由我們的戰略品牌的另一個強勁市場份額表現推動的,該市場份額增長了 200 個基點。
All the brands performed well, and in particular, Kent and Rothmans were outstanding, growing share by 50 basis points and 110 basis points, respectively.
所有品牌都表現出色,尤其是健德和樂富門表現突出,分別增長了 50 個基點和 110 個基點。
To give you more color, Kent had an excellent performance in Japan mainly due to the growth of THP consumables.
給大家更多的顏色,肯特在日本的表現非常出色,主要是THP耗材的增長。
And there was also good growth in the cigarette category.
捲菸類別也有良好的增長。
In fact, we are the fastest-growing company in THP and consumables.
事實上,我們是 THP 和耗材領域發展最快的公司。
In Russia, Kent regained leadership in the premium segment.
在俄羅斯,肯特重新奪回了高端市場的領導地位。
Kent Nanotek capsules reached a record share of 1.9%, driving Kent to its highest share level in Russia over the last 4 years.
Kent Nanotek 膠囊的份額達到創紀錄的 1.9%,使 Kent 在俄羅斯的份額達到過去 4 年的最高水平。
In Turkey, Kent is the fastest-growing brand in the market.
在土耳其,肯特是市場上增長最快的品牌。
Rothmans' market share continued to grow strongly and was up another 110 basis points over the year.
樂富門的市場份額繼續強勁增長,在這一年裡又增加了 110 個基點。
Volume grew nearly 20% to reach just over 99 billion sticks, driven by good performance in Ukraine, Russia, Nigeria, Bulgaria and migrations in Poland, Brazil and Colombia.
由於烏克蘭、俄羅斯、尼日利亞、保加利亞的良好表現以及波蘭、巴西和哥倫比亞的移民,銷量增長近 20%,達到略高於 990 億支。
In Brazil, the Minister to Rothmans migration was the largest ever in the group.
在巴西,羅斯曼移民部長是該集團有史以來規模最大的移民。
In Italy, the brand was the fastest-growing cigarette brand in the market, reaching an exit share of more than 9% in December.
在意大利,該品牌是市場上增長最快的捲煙品牌,12 月份的出口份額達到 9% 以上。
In Russia, Rothmans is now the #2 brand, with leadership in the capsules and demi segment.
在俄羅斯,Rothmans 現在是排名第二的品牌,在膠囊和半瓶裝產品領域處於領先地位。
Lucky Strike and Pall Mall also grew share, demonstrating the strength of our differentiated brand portfolio and diverse geographic footprint.
Lucky Strike 和 Pall Mall 的份額也有所增長,展示了我們差異化品牌組合和多元化地理足蹟的實力。
Dunhill overall share was stable despite the down-trading in many of its key markets.
儘管許多主要市場的交易量下降,但登喜路的整體份額仍保持穩定。
In the U.S., our premium brands Natural American Spirit and Newport both grew share and went up 20 and 10 basis points, respectively.
在美國,我們的高端品牌 Natural American Spirit 和 Newport 的市場份額均有所增長,分別上漲 20 和 10 個基點。
Camel share was stable and Pall Mall was down 20 basis points due to the growth of the non-big-3 discount brands.
由於非三大折扣品牌的增長,Camel 份額穩定,Pall Mall 下跌 20 個基點。
Overall, this was a very good performance of our combustible business.
總體而言,這是我們可燃物業務的出色表現。
In tobacco heating, glo has performed very well in Japan.
在煙草加熱方面,glo在日本的表現非常出色。
While we continue to see the THP category developing at different levels across markets globally, Japan has experienced tremendous success, although growth slowed during 2018.
雖然我們繼續看到 THP 類別在全球市場的不同水平上發展,但日本取得了巨大的成功,儘管 2018 年增長放緩。
However, in Korea, the category is less than half the size of Japan.
然而,在韓國,這一類別的規模還不到日本的一半。
And to date, Europe has seen much lower levels of growth.
迄今為止,歐洲的增長水平要低得多。
This is why we have focused our efforts in 2018 in Japan.
這就是為什麼我們將 2018 年的努力集中在日本。
It is the most competitive THP market, and we have grown faster than any other competitor.
這是競爭最激烈的 THP 市場,我們的增長速度超過任何其他競爭對手。
Our share of the total nicotine market has now reached 17%, an increase of 160 basis points over the year, reflecting the good health of both combustibles and THP business.
我們在整個尼古丁市場的份額現已達到 17%,比去年增加了 160 個基點,反映了可燃物和 THP 業務的良好健康狀況。
Glo national share reached 5% in January this year, growing consistently over the second half.
今年 1 月,Glo national 的份額達到 5%,下半年持續增長。
Our share of the categories is now 22.4%, and our estimated share of the gross margin pool is 26.7%, up from 19.1% and 23.1%, respectively.
我們在這些類別中的份額現在為 22.4%,我們在毛利率池中的估計份額為 26.7%,分別高於 19.1% 和 23.1%。
This is a growth story which is translating to strong financials.
這是一個正在轉化為強勁財務狀況的增長故事。
During 2018, we launched Neo, our premium range of consumables, priced above Kent, with higher nicotine and capsules.
2018 年,我們推出了 Neo,這是我們的優質消耗品系列,價格高於 Kent,尼古丁和膠囊含量更高。
Neo has grown to 1.5 share points, driving growth for glo and mix improvement.
Neo 已增長到 1.5 個份額點,推動了全球增長和混合改善。
We are the only THP player in Japan to offer capsule variants which together with a wide range of flavors provide more choices to consumers than any other competitors.
我們是日本唯一一家提供膠囊變體的 THP 生產商,與其他任何競爭對手相比,我們的膠囊變體與多種口味一起為消費者提供了更多選擇。
In South Korea, the THP category returned to growth in the second half of the year and represents 9% of the tobacco market in December.
在韓國,THP 類別在今年下半年恢復增長,12 月份佔煙草市場的 9%。
Glo continued its share improvement with an improved mix and better activation model following the relaunch in August.
Glo 在 8 月重新推出後,通過改進組合和更好的激活模型繼續提高其份額。
In other markets, particularly in Europe, glo is still in the early stage of expansion but with some encouraging results over the year.
在其他市場,尤其是歐洲,glo 仍處於擴張的早期階段,但在過去一年中取得了一些令人鼓舞的成果。
In Romania, glo has performed well with strong month on month growth.
在羅馬尼亞,glo 表現良好,月環比增長強勁。
And in Russia, device penetration reached record levels in December.
在俄羅斯,設備普及率在 12 月達到了創紀錄的水平。
Glo's global footprint continued to increase during 2018 with a number of new market launches in the second half, including Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Glo 的全球足跡在 2018 年繼續擴大,下半年推出了許多新市場,包括希臘、塞爾維亞、克羅地亞、烏克蘭和哈薩克斯坦。
We remain confident in our glo product pipeline and support plans, with a number of launches and activities planned for 2019.
我們對我們的 glo 產品管道和支持計劃充滿信心,計劃在 2019 年推出一些產品和開展活動。
In vapor, on a representative basis, volume was up 35%, and revenue was up 26%.
在蒸汽方面,有代表性地,銷量增長了 35%,收入增長了 26%。
In the U.S., the overall Vuse family has grown both volume and value.
在美國,整個 Vuse 系列的數量和價值都在增長。
Despite the 20% growth in revenue, Vuse value share was down 14 percentage points over the year to 18% as the category continued to grow rapidly, although not always where we are willing to market our products.
儘管收入增長了 20%,但 Vuse 的價值份額在一年中下降了 14 個百分點,至 18%,因為該類別繼續快速增長,儘管我們並不總是願意將我們的產品推向市場。
Performance was also impacted by the Vype product recall.
性能也受到 Vype 產品召回的影響。
Importantly, and I'm pleased to say that with the Vuse family has now returned to share growth in the last past -- in the last part of the year with the successful launch of our Pod Mod Vuse Alto and the reintroduction of Vuse Vibe.
重要的是,我很高興地說,隨著我們的 Pod Mod Vuse Alto 的成功推出和 Vuse Vibe 的重新引入,Vuse 家族現在已經恢復了去年的份額增長。
In addition, our share in starter kit sales, which is a very good indicator of consumer uptake, is growing rapidly with the latest Vuse share at 27.4%.
此外,我們在入門套件銷售中的份額(這是消費者接受度的一個很好的指標)正在快速增長,最新的 Vuse 份額為 27.4%。
The introduction and phased rollout of Alto since August has progressed very well.
Alto自8月以來的引入和分階段推出進展順利。
It has grown from 0 to a national value share of 4.6% and continues to grow.
它已從 0 增長到 4.6% 的全國價值份額,並且還在繼續增長。
Share of cartridges measured in milliliters equivalent is increasing at an average of 1.5 percentage points in recent months and currently stands at 5.5%, while Alto's share of starting kit has grown to 10.8%, reflecting significant growing consumer interest in the product.
近幾個月,以毫升當量計量的墨盒份額平均增長 1.5 個百分點,目前為 5.5%,而 Alto 在入門套件中的份額已增長至 10.8%,反映出消費者對該產品的興趣顯著增加。
The growth of the category slowed during the second half of 2018, and we are making good progress in improving our market position as the category begins to consolidate.
該類別的增長在 2018 年下半年放緩,隨著該類別開始整合,我們在提高市場地位方面取得了良好進展。
In January, we commenced our full national support campaign having successfully scaled up production capabilities to meet anticipated demand.
1 月,我們開始了全面的國家支持活動,成功地擴大了生產能力以滿足預期需求。
We continue to see good evidence of Alto's strong product performance across both our own product trials and among vapor experts and feedbacks from consumers.
我們繼續在我們自己的產品試驗以及蒸汽專家和消費者的反饋中看到 Alto 強大產品性能的良好證據。
We remain very confident in its ability to drive share growth in the U.S.
我們仍然對其推動美國市場份額增長的能力充滿信心。
In the U.K., the market grew by almost 26% and BAT vapor retail value grew by 20 basis points to 41%.
在英國,市場增長了近 26%,BAT 蒸汽零售價值增長了 20 個基點,達到 41%。
Vype ePen 3 was launched in the U.K. after an extensive pilot program with excellent results.
Vype ePen 3 在經過廣泛的試點計劃後在英國推出並取得了優異的成績。
Whilst it is still early days, initial indications from the launches are very positive and ePen 3 has already achieved a 3.9 national value share in retail in the U.K. as well as has been voted product of the year by the consumers.
雖然現在還處於早期階段,但發布的初步跡象非常積極,ePen 3 已經在英國零售業取得了 3.9 的全國價值份額,並被消費者評為年度最佳產品。
We continue to perform well in our other markets, and we are the market leader in Poland and in Germany.
我們在其他市場繼續表現良好,我們是波蘭和德國的市場領導者。
Our global footprint continues to grow, including new market launches in New Zealand and further product rollouts of ePen 3 in France and Canada.
我們的全球足跡繼續擴大,包括在新西蘭推出新市場以及在法國和加拿大進一步推出 ePen 3 產品。
In France, Vype has moved from being the #5 brand in retail to take market leadership with an overall retail exit share of 13.7%.
在法國,Vype 已從零售業排名第五的品牌轉變為市場領導者,整體零售退出份額為 13.7%。
This has been driven by a strong performance from ePen 3, which just 8 weeks after launch, has already achieved 7.1 value share in retail in January.
這是由 ePen 3 的強勁表現推動的,ePen 3 在推出僅 8 週後,在 1 月份就已經在零售市場取得了 7.1 的價值份額。
Vype now accounts for over 23.7% of all glo system sales in the retail channel.
Vype 現在佔零售渠道所有 glo 系統銷售額的 23.7% 以上。
Our new product Vype iSwitch was launched to a test market in the U.K. in December.
我們的新產品 Vype iSwitch 於 12 月在英國推出測試市場。
iSwitch represents first-to-world heating blade technology, replacing the traditional coil and wick system.
iSwitch 代表了世界首創的加熱片技術,取代了傳統的線圈和燈芯系統。
Value share in ViP stores in situ is 23% after 5 weeks.
5 週後,原位 ViP 商店的價值份額為 23%。
The oral tobacco category is becoming an increasing relevant category and has 2 distinct subcategories: traditional oral, includes moist snuff and traditional snus products; the modern oral category, comprises very-low-tobacco or tobacco-free white pouches products, where we have EPOK and Lyft, which both experienced significant growth in 2018.
口服煙草類別正在成為一個越來越重要的類別,並有 2 個不同的子類別:傳統口服煙草,包括濕鼻煙和傳統鼻煙產品;現代口腔類別,包括極低煙草或無菸草的白色袋裝產品,我們有 EPOK 和 Lyft,它們在 2018 年都經歷了顯著增長。
In the U.S., strong pricing in traditional oral drove good growth in revenue and profit.
在美國,傳統口服藥物的強勁定價推動了收入和利潤的良好增長。
Grizzly market share was down 40 basis points largely due to lapping of tough comparator which benefited from gains made during a competitor's product recall in Q1 2017.
Grizzly 的市場份額下降了 40 個基點,這主要是由於超過了強硬的比較器,後者受益於 2017 年第一季度競爭對手產品召回期間的收益。
In addition, in the last part of the year, Grizzly returned to share growth and was up 50 basis points in Q4.
此外,在今年下半年,Grizzly 的股價恢復增長,並在第四季度上漲了 50 個基點。
Camel snus also performed well, and we remain very hopeful of a positive outcome as we continue to await the result of our MRTP application.
Camel snus 也表現良好,在我們繼續等待 MRTP 申請結果的過程中,我們仍然對取得積極成果充滿希望。
In modern oral, EPOK is performing extremely well across the whole of the Nordic markets and is the fastest-growing premium brand in the overall oral market.
在現代口腔領域,EPOK在整個北歐市場表現極為出色,是整體口腔市場增長最快的高端品牌。
As a result, we continue to grow share in oral and now have a December exit share of category of 8% in Norway.
因此,我們繼續增加口服產品的份額,現在 12 月份在挪威的類別出口份額為 8%。
In Switzerland, EPOK has also delivered strong growth to achieve 17% exit share of category in December after launching in Q2 of last year.
在瑞士,EPOK 在去年第二季度推出後也實現了強勁增長,在 12 月份實現了 17% 的退出份額。
Lyft, our tobacco-free product, was launched in Sweden in Q3 of last year and finished the year with a market share of 4.5% in handling just after 4 months.
我們的無菸產品 Lyft 於去年第三季度在瑞典推出,僅 4 個月後就以 4.5% 的市場份額結束了這一年。
A pilot is now currently underway in the U.K. with encouraging early results.
目前英國正在進行一項試點,初步結果令人鼓舞。
Moving on to the regions where, for clarity, I will focus on the constant adjusted representative numbers, in the U.S., Reynolds performed well.
為清楚起見,我將繼續關注不斷調整的代表性數字的地區,在美國,雷諾茲表現良好。
Adjusted profit was up 5.8%, reflecting growth in revenue and good pricing as well as cost reductions since the acquisition.
調整後的利潤增長了 5.8%,反映了自收購以來收入的增長和良好的定價以及成本的降低。
Cost synergies are progressing well with annualized savings of over USD 300 million delivered to date.
成本協同效應進展順利,迄今已實現每年超過 3 億美元的節省。
The group continues to expect to deliver over $400 million over synergies by the end of 2020.
該集團繼續預計到 2020 年底將產生超過 4 億美元的協同效應。
Industry volumes were estimated to be down around 4.5% in 2018 partly due to the impact of higher fuel prices on disposable income, the growth of the vapor category and the residual effect of the change in excise in 2017 in California.
據估計,2018 年行業銷量將下降約 4.5%,部分原因是燃料價格上漲對可支配收入的影響、蒸汽類別的增長以及加州 2017 年消費稅變化的殘餘影響。
It is important to note that the market decline moderated in the second half of the year to -- from 5.3% to 4.1%.
值得注意的是,今年下半年市場跌幅有所放緩,從 5.3% 降至 4.1%。
This year, we expect industry volume in the U.S. to do better than last year, down around 3.5% to 4.5%.
今年,我們預計美國的行業銷量將比去年好,下降約 3.5% 至 4.5%。
BAT cigarette volumes were 5.3% lower in part due to a strong comparator, following the new variant launches for Camel and Newport in the first half of 2017.
在 2017 年上半年為 Camel 和 Newport 推出新變體之後,BAT 捲菸銷量下降了 5.3%,部分原因是強大的比較器。
Importantly, overall value share grew 25 basis points driven by the continued growth of the premium brands.
重要的是,在高端品牌持續增長的推動下,整體價值份額增長了 25 個基點。
The FDA announcement during the year have clearly generated significant investor uncertainty.
今年 FDA 的公告顯然給投資者帶來了重大的不確定性。
However, we have a strong portfolio of brands with a great consumer profile.
但是,我們擁有強大的品牌組合,具有良好的消費者形象。
While we believe FDA restrictions are years away, we have successfully navigated through menthol restrictions in other markets, and I'm confident that we can do so in the U.S.
雖然我們相信 FDA 的限制還需要幾年時間,但我們已經成功地通過了其他市場的薄荷醇限制,而且我相信我們可以在美國這樣做。
In APME, revenue in the region grew 5.7%, the strongest performance since 2013, driven by good pricing and the growth in THP volumes.
在 APME,該地區的收入增長了 5.7%,這是自 2013 年以來最強勁的表現,這得益於良好的定價和 THP 銷量的增長。
Profit from operations was at 1.2%.
經營利潤為 1.2%。
This was driven by strong growth in Japan and increases in Australia, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
這是由日本的強勁增長以及澳大利亞、巴基斯坦和孟加拉國的增長推動的。
This growth was partly offset by a reduction in Saudi Arabia caused by down-trading following the excise increase midyear, although share increased significantly, following the successful launch of Pall Mall in the low-price segment.
儘管 Pall Mall 在低價市場成功推出後份額顯著增加,但這一增長部分被沙特阿拉伯的減少所抵消,原因是年中消費稅增加後交易減少。
Volume was up 0.7% driven by a recovery in volume in Pakistan and THP growth in Japan and South Korea.
在巴基斯坦銷量回升以及日本和韓國 THP 增長的推動下,銷量增長了 0.7%。
Market share in the region grew strongly and was up 110 basis points.
該地區的市場份額增長強勁,上升了 110 個基點。
The strategic brands had an excellent performance with volume up 6%.
戰略品牌表現出色,銷量增長 6%。
Share was up 120 basis points mainly driven by Pall Mall in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as well as a good performance from Dunhill in Indonesia.
股價上漲 120 個基點,主要受巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯的 Pall Mall 以及印度尼西亞 Dunhill 的良好表現推動。
In AMSSA, revenue grew by 5.6% as good pricing across the region more than offset the lower total volume and the negative mix impact of down-trading following the significant excise-led price increase in a number of markets.
在 AMSSA,收入增長了 5.6%,因為該地區的良好定價抵消了總量下降以及許多市場因消費稅導致的價格大幅上漲後降價交易的負面組合影響。
Volume was down 5.4%, mainly due to the growth of illicit trade in Brazil and South Africa, the termination of a third-party license agreement in Mexico together with market contractions in Canada, Colombia and Venezuela.
銷量下降 5.4%,主要是由於巴西和南非的非法貿易增長、墨西哥第三方許可協議的終止以及加拿大、哥倫比亞和委內瑞拉的市場萎縮。
Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment and excise increase, pricing remained strong.
儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰且消費稅增加,但定價仍然堅挺。
Profit grew strongly and was up by 6.5%, driven by good performances in Nigeria, Mexico and Chile, partly offset by a lower duty paid market and down-trading in South Africa.
利潤增長強勁,增長了 6.5%,這得益於尼日利亞、墨西哥和智利的良好表現,部分抵消了較低的關稅市場和南非的低迷交易。
We continue to await the outcome of the class action appeal in Canada, which is expected tomorrow evening.
我們繼續等待加拿大的集體訴訟上訴結果,預計將於明晚公佈。
The strategic brands reached a record share in the region and was up 720 basis points.
戰略品牌在該地區的份額達到了創紀錄的水平,上漲了 720 個基點。
This was driven by good performance in Brazil, where the strategic brands almost doubled volume, helped by 2 very successful migrations.
這是由巴西的良好表現推動的,戰略品牌的銷量幾乎翻了一番,這得益於兩次非常成功的遷移。
Finally, in ENA, adjusted revenue grew 3.5%, and profit was up by 0.8%, following significantly increased investment behind our new category launches in the second half
最後,在 ENA,調整後的收入增長了 3.5%,利潤增長了 0.8%,因為我們在下半年推出新品類後投資顯著增加
(technical difficulty)
(技術難度)
was down by 5.3%, in Turkey, Egypt, Poland and Romania were offset by declines in Russia, Ukraine, Italy and France.
土耳其、埃及、波蘭和羅馬尼亞下降了 5.3%,但被俄羅斯、烏克蘭、意大利和法國的下降所抵消。
Market share in the region was stable, and the strategic brands delivered another good performance, with volume up 5.2%.
區域市場份額穩定,戰略品牌再創佳績,銷量增長5.2%。
So overall, it was a good performance across the regions.
總的來說,這是跨地區的良好表現。
We are committed to invest in developing strong brands across categories and continue to improve our execution.
我們致力於投資發展跨品類的強勢品牌,並繼續提高我們的執行力。
I'm looking forward for our Capital Markets Day in March where I will talk in more details.
我期待著 3 月份的資本市場日,屆時我將詳細討論。
I will now hand you over to Ben, which will take you through the financials.
我現在將你交給 Ben,他將帶你完成財務。
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
Thank you, Jack.
謝謝你,傑克。
Good morning, everyone.
大家,早安。
So while on a reported basis, EPS declined by 86% due to the impact of the RAI transaction accounting treatment in the prior year, adjusted diluted EPS was up more than 5% at current rates and nearly 12% on a constant basis, exceeding our high-single-figure EPS growth objective.
因此,雖然在報告的基礎上,由於上一年 RAI 交易會計處理的影響,每股收益下降了 86%,但調整後的攤薄每股收益按當前匯率增長了 5% 以上,在固定基礎上增長了近 12%,超過了我們的預期高個位數的每股收益增長目標。
As we said earlier, for clarity, I'll now focus on the adjusted representative results, which are against the comparative base that assumes full ownership of Reynolds and the other acquisitions throughout 2017.
正如我們之前所說,為清楚起見,我現在將重點關注調整後的代表性結果,這些結果與假設雷諾茲在整個 2017 年擁有完全所有權和其他收購的比較基礎相對。
This doesn't affect comparisons made on an EPS basis.
這不會影響在 EPS 基礎上進行的比較。
As you've seen, the regions performed strongly in 2018, with group adjusted operating profit growing by 4% at constant rates.
如您所見,這些地區在 2018 年表現強勁,集團調整後營業利潤按固定增長率增長 4%。
As we stated previously, our 2018 results enjoyed a benefit from the U.S. tax reform, which we initially estimated would be equivalent to around 6% on EPS, around half of which we said would be invested into increased support for our Next Generation Products.
正如我們之前所說,我們 2018 年的業績受益於美國稅制改革,我們最初估計這相當於 EPS 的 6% 左右,我們表示其中約一半將用於增加對我們下一代產品的支持。
So I'm pleased to say that even excluding that benefit, constant currency EPS would have grown around 9%, meeting our high-single-figure growth target, and adjusted operating profit would have increased by around 7%, excluding the incremental spend funded by the tax reform.
因此,我很高興地說,即使排除該收益,不變貨幣每股收益也將增長 9% 左右,達到我們的高個位數增長目標,調整後的營業利潤將增長 7% 左右,不包括增量支出資助通過稅收改革。
So this was a very strong performance.
所以這是一個非常強大的表現。
Turning now to operating margin.
現在轉向營業利潤率。
On an adjusted basis, margin was up by 150 basis points benefiting from the inclusion of Reynolds as a fully-owned subsidiary.
在調整後的基礎上,受益於 Reynolds 成為全資子公司,利潤率上升了 150 個基點。
Excluding this, our operating margin increased by 40 basis points to 42.6%.
排除這個,我們的營業利潤率增加了 40 個基點,達到 42.6%。
Changes in the business, including pricing, cost savings and synergies with Reynolds drove underlying margin improvements of 180 basis points.
業務的變化,包括定價、成本節約和與雷諾的協同作用,推動基礎利潤率提高了 180 個基點。
This was offset by higher investment in NGPs, which represented a headwind of 140 basis points.
這被對 NGPs 的更高投資所抵消,這代表了 140 個基點的逆風。
We expect our net investment in new categories to be about the same in 2019 as last year.
我們預計 2019 年我們對新品類的淨投資與去年持平。
We will continue to make good progress with a margin on an underlying basis and remain confident in our ability to deliver 50 to 100 basis points of margin improvement on average over the years.
我們將繼續在基礎利潤率方面取得良好進展,並對我們多年來實現平均利潤率提高 50 至 100 個基點的能力充滿信心。
Now onto cash flow.
現在進入現金流。
Overall adjusted cash generated from operations was GBP 8,071,000,000 which is GBP 4,789,000,000 higher than last year.
運營產生的調整後現金總額為 80.71 億英鎊,比去年增加 47.89 億英鎊。
This was primarily driven by the full year impact of the RAI acquisition and also assisted by the early MSA payment in December 2017 of GBP 1.4 billion.
這主要是受 RAI 收購的全年影響所推動,也得益於 2017 年 12 月提前支付的 14 億英鎊 MSA。
The timing of this was the major contributor to the GBP 1.7 billion reduction in working capital year-on-year.
這一時機是營運資金同比減少 17 億英鎊的主要原因。
However, underlying working capital was also lower.
然而,基礎營運資金也較低。
As a result, operating cash flow conversion increased by 34.5 percentage points to 113% versus 2017.
因此,經營現金流轉換比 2017 年增加了 34.5 個百分點,達到 113%。
Excluding the early MSA payment, operating cash flow conversion would have been 100%.
不包括早期的 MSA 付款,經營現金流轉換為 100%。
Depreciation is the main component in noncash items.
折舊是非現金項目的主要組成部分。
And excluding the MSA payment, working capital inflows of GBP 287 million were significantly better than 2017, which was an outflow of GBP 93 million.
不包括 MSA 付款,2.87 億英鎊的營運資金流入明顯好於 2017 年的 9300 萬英鎊流出。
Net capital expenditure was GBP 78 million higher than 2017, largely due to investments in Next Generation products.
淨資本支出比 2017 年增加 7800 萬英鎊,主要是由於對下一代產品的投資。
We expect net CapEx in 2019 to be around GBP 850 million.
我們預計 2019 年的淨資本支出約為 8.5 億英鎊。
Net interest paid was higher at GBP 1,533,000,000, driven by the full year impact of costs related to financing arrangements for the acquisition of Reynolds.
支付的淨利息較高,為 1,533,000,000 英鎊,這是由於與收購 Reynolds 的融資安排相關的全年成本影響所致。
Tax outflows of GBP 1,891,000,000 have increased by GBP 215 million from 2017.
稅收流出 18.91 億英鎊,比 2017 年增加了 2.15 億英鎊。
This reflects the inclusion of RAI as a subsidiary for the 12-month period and the increase in profits across the group.
這反映了 RAI 在 12 個月期間被納入子公司以及整個集團的利潤增長。
Lower dividend payments to minorities are attributable to lower profit in Malaysia in 2017.
向少數族裔支付的股息減少是由於 2017 年馬來西亞的利潤下降。
This delivers adjusted cash generated from operations of GBP 8,071,000,000.
這提供了 8,071,000,000 英鎊運營產生的調整後現金。
Restructuring and settlement outflows were lower at GBP 601 million, largely due to no further payments linked to the Quebec class action lawsuit.
重組和結算流出較低,為 6.01 億英鎊,這主要是由於沒有與魁北克集體訴訟相關的進一步付款。
Dividends from associates of GBP 214 million have reduced significantly from 2017 due to the acquisition of Reynolds and now comprises primarily receipts from ITC.
由於收購 Reynolds,來自聯營公司的股息為 2.14 億英鎊,較 2017 年大幅減少,現在主要包括來自 ITC 的收入。
This delivers free cash flow of GBP 7,684,000,000.
這提供了 7,684,000,000 英鎊的自由現金流。
Adjusted diluted EPS of 296.7p was up 5.2% despite a currency headwind of 7 percentage points.
儘管匯率逆風 7 個百分點,但調整後的攤薄每股收益為 296.7 便士,增長了 5.2%。
On a constant basis, EPS grew 11.8% driven by growth in operating profit, the contribution from Reynolds and the benefit of the U.S. tax reform.
在營業利潤增長、雷諾的貢獻和美國稅制改革的推動下,每股收益同比增長 11.8%。
Net finance costs increased driven by the full year interest charged incurred on borrowings as a result of the RAI financing.
由於 RAI 融資而產生的全年借款利息導致淨財務成本增加。
We continue to expect the full year net finance charge to be around GBP 1.5 billion in 2019.
我們繼續預計 2019 年全年淨財務費用約為 15 億英鎊。
The contributions from associates was down due to the removal of Reynolds as an associate company, partly offset by an increased contribution from ITC in India.
由於 Reynolds 不再是聯營公司,聯營公司的貢獻有所減少,部分被 ITC 在印度的貢獻增加所抵消。
Our effective tax rate was lower at 26.4%, mainly driven by the impact of U.S. tax reform.
我們的有效稅率較低,為 26.4%,主要受美國稅制改革的影響。
Noncontrolling interests were marginally higher, driven by profit growth in Bangladesh.
受孟加拉國利潤增長的推動,非控制性權益略有增加。
On currencies, if rates were to stay as at 27th of February, last night, the translational FX impact on full year results would be a headwind of around 0.8% on operating profit and 0.9% on EPS.
在貨幣方面,如果利率保持在昨晚 2 月 27 日的水平,則換算匯率對全年業績的影響將對營業利潤產生約 0.8% 的不利影響,對每股收益產生約 0.9% 的不利影響。
The group's net debt to EBITDA metrics are both stated on an adjusted basis.
該集團的淨債務與 EBITDA 指標均在調整後的基礎上列出。
Net debt to EBITDA stayed at 4x in 2018, purely as a result of the impact of exchange rates on net debt at the 31st of December and EBITDA at average rates during the year, and I'll show the impacts of this on the next slide.
淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率在 2018 年保持在 4 倍,這純粹是由於匯率對 12 月 31 日的淨債務和年內平均匯率的 EBITDA 的影響,我將在下一張幻燈片中展示這種影響.
I did want to emphasize that even at these unfavorable exchange rates, our credit rating remains stable at BBB+, Baa2, just one notch with Moody's from our long-term target of BBB+, Baa1.
我確實想強調,即使在這些不利的匯率下,我們的信用評級仍穩定在 BBB+,Baa2,與我們長期目標 BBB+,Baa1 的評級僅差一個等級。
Our interest cover remains high at over 7x, and we remain committed to paying a dividend, which increases every year in sterling terms, moving gradually to a payout ratio of 65% as we pick up an FX tailwind.
我們的利息保障倍數仍然很高,超過 7 倍,我們仍然致力於支付股息,以英鎊計算,股息每年都在增加,隨著我們獲得外匯順風,股息支付率逐漸上升至 65%。
We've historically generated a free cash flow after dividends of around GBP 1.5 billion every year, and we expect future EBITDA growth to benefit from our cost-cutting programs as we begin -- and we begin to make a return on our new category investments.
從歷史上看,我們每年派息後產生的自由現金流約為 15 億英鎊,我們預計未來的 EBITDA 增長將受益於我們開始時的成本削減計劃——我們開始對新類別投資產生回報.
I'm also guiding towards an effective tax rate of 26% this year, down from the 2018 level of 26.4%.
我還指導今年的有效稅率為 26%,低於 2018 年的 26.4%。
As noted on the previous slide, the group's net debt to EBITDA metrics are both stated on an adjusted basis.
如上一張幻燈片所述,該集團的淨債務與 EBITDA 指標均在調整後的基礎上表示。
As you can see from the chart, translating our closing net debt at the same rates as the closing net debt for 2017 and translating our EBITDA at constant rates to 2017, our net debt to EBITDA would have been 3.6x, in line with our deleveraging target of 0.4 to 0.5x a year.
正如您從圖表中看到的那樣,以與 2017 年期末淨債務相同的比率換算我們的期末淨債務,並將我們的 EBITDA 以固定匯率換算為 2017 年,我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 的比值為 3.6 倍,這與我們的去槓桿化一致每年 0.4 到 0.5 倍的目標。
Translating our EBITDA at the 2018 average rates, i.e., including the effects of FX headwind of 5%, increased the ratio by 0.2x.
以 2018 年的平均匯率換算我們的 EBITDA,即包括 5% 的外匯逆風影響,該比率增加了 0.2 倍。
Translating net debt at 2018 closing rates also increased the ratio by 0.2x.
按 2018 年收盤匯率換算淨債務後,該比率也增加了 0.2 倍。
However, even today, FX is moving in our favor, and translating the 2018 net debt and EBITDA at today's rates would give a net debt to EBITDA of 3.9x.
然而,即使在今天,外匯走勢對我們有利,以今天的匯率換算 2018 年淨債務和 EBITDA 將使淨債務與 EBITDA 之比為 3.9 倍。
FX rates will move where they will.
匯率會隨心所欲地移動。
The most important number is around the GBP 1.5 billion of free cash flow after dividends that we generate every year, and this gives me confidence that we will deleverage back to our target of 1.5x to 2.5x.
最重要的數字是我們每年產生的股息後大約 15 億英鎊的自由現金流,這讓我有信心我們將去槓桿化回到我們 1.5 倍至 2.5 倍的目標。
So in summary, the business performed well in 2018.
因此,總而言之,該業務在 2018 年表現良好。
On a constant representative basis, adjusted revenue grew 3.5%; profit by 4%; and adjusted diluted earnings per share, 11.8%, exceeding our high-single-figure earnings growth target whilst investing in new categories.
在固定代表性的基礎上,調整後收入增長 3.5%;利潤增加 4%;調整後的攤薄每股收益為 11.8%,超過了我們的高個位數收益增長目標,同時投資於新類別。
Thank you.
謝謝。
And I'll now hand back to Nicandro to close.
現在我將交還給 Nicandro 以結束髮言。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Thank you, Ben.
謝謝你,本。
So 2018 saw another strong performance across all categories.
因此,2018 年在所有類別中均表現強勁。
This was driven by continued strong growth in our strategic portfolio, showing the strength of our brands.
這是由我們戰略組合的持續強勁增長推動的,展示了我們品牌的實力。
Our near doubling of NGP revenues and the improved financial performance across all regions, not only the U.S., driven by price and value share growth of combustibles.
在可燃物的價格和價值份額增長的推動下,我們的 NGP 收入幾乎翻了一番,所有地區(不僅是美國)的財務業績都有所改善。
Overall, the business performing well.
總體而言,業務表現良好。
We exceeded our high-single-figure target, delivering constant currency earnings growth of nearly 12% while investing for the future.
我們超越了我們的高個位數目標,在為未來投資的同時實現了近 12% 的貨幣收益持續增長。
Looking ahead for -- to 2019, we are confident of another good year of earnings growth.
展望未來 - 到 2019 年,我們對盈利增長的又一個好年頭充滿信心。
Our confidence in the future, indeed, is reflected in the continuing increase in the dividends, up by 4%.
事實上,我們對未來的信心反映在股息的持續增長上,增長了 4%。
I will now open it up for questions.
我現在將打開它提問。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
So who would like to start?
那麼谁愿意開始呢?
Yes, please.
是的,請。
Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst
Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst
Gaurav Jain from Barclays.
來自巴克萊銀行的 Gaurav Jain。
So I have 3 questions.
所以我有3個問題。
One is on the U.S. volume outlook, where you have said is minus 3.5% to minus 4.5% for FY '19, which is better than FY '18.
一個是關於美國的銷量前景,你說 19 財年為負 3.5% 至負 4.5%,好於 18 財年。
And I think Altria has said minus 3.5% to minus 5%.
我認為奧馳亞已經說過負 3.5% 到負 5%。
So can you please help us understand why volumes are improving?
那麼,您能否幫助我們理解為什麼銷量在提高?
Question two is that you are in both the product categories THP and vaping, and much more than any other company is.
第二個問題是,您屬於 THP 和 vaping 這兩個產品類別,並且比任何其他公司都多。
So when you look at this country category combination around the world, in how many countries do you think vaping will be successful?
那麼當你看看全世界這個國家類別組合時,你認為電子煙會在多少個國家取得成功?
And how in many countries do you think THP will be successful?
您認為 THP 在許多國家/地區如何取得成功?
And the third thing is that when Altria has done the JUUL transaction, they have spoken about promoting JUUL in several ways, including packet inserts and better retail placement and things like that.
第三件事是,當奧馳亞完成 JUUL 交易時,他們談到以多種方式推廣 JUUL,包括數據包插入和更好的零售佈局等。
So why can't you do a similar thing with your existing cigarette portfolio and your Vuse and Vype products?
那麼,為什麼不能對現有的香煙產品組合以及 Vuse 和 Vype 產品做類似的事情呢?
Like, why can't you promote them with Newport or Natural American Spirit?
比如,為什麼你不能用 Newport 或 Natural American Spirit 來推廣它們?
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
I'll try to grab the questions, and maybe, Jack, you want to jump in for the third one later?
我會試著抓取問題,也許,傑克,你想稍後再回答第三個問題嗎?
Yes?
是的?
Did you get the question?
你明白問題了嗎?
The first 2. Let me try to answer the U.S. outlook.
第一個 2. 讓我嘗試回答美國的前景。
It's very difficult to predict how the industry is going to play, but the 3 main factors that we had last year that affect the volume in the U.S. was the overlap of the California excise we don't have this year; we had the huge growth of vaping in the first half of the year, and the growth of vaping at the last quarter of 2018 has stabilized; and the third one was significant fuel price increase in U.S. that you're not seeing now.
很難預測該行業將如何發展,但我們去年影響美國銷量的 3 個主要因素是我們今年沒有的加州消費稅的重疊;我們有上半年電子煙的巨大增長,2018年第四季度電子煙的增長已經趨於穩定;第三個是你現在看不到的美國燃油價格大幅上漲。
So there are 3 factors here that shows that you have, probably, you have a better volume environment.
所以這裡有 3 個因素表明您可能擁有更好的音量環境。
It has been shown in January -- in January, if you think sales to retail was down 2.7%, it doesn't mean that I'm going to change my outlook for 2019.
它已在 1 月份顯示 - 1 月份,如果您認為零售銷售額下降 2.7%,這並不意味著我將改變我對 2019 年的展望。
I still think that should be around 2.5% to 4.5%.
我仍然認為應該在 2.5% 到 4.5% 左右。
But these are the indicators that you have to be a little bit more confident in the industry outlook for 2019.
但這些指標表明你必須對 2019 年的行業前景更有信心。
And on top of this, the environment in U.S. is a little bit better.
除此之外,美國的環境要好一些。
We just announced, as you know, a price increase.
如您所知,我們剛剛宣布提價。
Our announcement was $5.50, a very solid price increase, $5.50 per 1,000.
我們的公告是 5.50 美元,這是一個非常穩健的價格上漲,每 1,000 美元 5.50 美元。
So it just shows that this was ahead of plan.
所以它只是表明這是超前的計劃。
It was ahead of the plan of last year.
這比去年的計劃提前了。
So I think that we have a better environment.
所以我認為我們有一個更好的環境。
I hope that answered the question.
我希望這回答了這個問題。
But it's very difficult to predict those numbers, but our indications shows that we probably have a stronger '19 than '18.
但很難預測這些數字,但我們的跡象表明,我們的 19 年可能比 18 年強。
Regarding your second question, about how many countries THP or vaping.
關於你的第二個問題,關於有多少國家 THP 或 vaping。
From the outset, as I said in my presentation, since 2011, we always said that these categories are going to -- were going to develop in different ways in different markets.
從一開始,正如我在演講中所說,自 2011 年以來,我們一直說這些類別將 - 將在不同市場以不同方式發展。
I'm very glad that now the industry is coming close to our direction.
我很高興現在這個行業正在接近我們的方向。
I'm very happy with that.
我對此很滿意。
But anyway, we said from the outset that the 4 categories are going to be very important.
但無論如何,我們從一開始就說過這 4 個類別將非常重要。
And one example of that, we launched one of our snus product in Switzerland 6 months ago against a THP product that was there for a couple of years.
舉個例子,我們 6 個月前在瑞士推出了我們的一款口含煙產品,而 THP 產品已經在那裡使用了幾年。
The market share on our snus product is higher than the THP product is in Switzerland.
我們的口含煙產品在瑞士的市場份額高於 THP 產品。
You saw that the categories are going to grow in different pace.
您看到類別將以不同的速度增長。
The number of countries in which the categories are going to be successful, if you go back to the Investors Day that we were in for 2017, we had a chart in which we said in 5, 10 years' time how this -- we think the categories are going to evolve.
這些類別將取得成功的國家/地區數量,如果你回到我們在 2017 年參加的投資者日,我們有一張圖表,我們在 5 年、10 年的時間裡說這是如何——我們認為類別將會發展。
And we showed the most prevalent category in 5, 10 years' time.
我們展示了 5、10 年後最流行的類別。
I don't think that our view of the categories changed dramatically so I recommend you to go back.
我不認為我們對類別的看法發生了巨大變化,所以我建議你回去。
It's in our website.
它在我們的網站上。
But in 2 weeks' time, instead of me going through country by country now, you have a Capital Markets Day.
但是在 2 週的時間裡,不是我現在一個國家一個國家地走訪,而是一個資本市場日。
There will be a presentation again where you have that chart coming again, and we're going to explain how we think those things are going to develop.
將再次進行演示,您將再次獲得該圖表,我們將解釋我們認為這些事情將如何發展。
So very glad that you see that everybody's coming to the same conclusion.
很高興您看到每個人都得出了相同的結論。
Very glad you see that because we started earlier, we will have a better portfolio to face this.
很高興你看到,因為我們起步較早,我們將有更好的投資組合來面對這個問題。
I think that Jack highlighted extremely well in his presentation about the first-world heating blade technology that we call the Vype iSwitch, which we are just piloting this in our Vype stores.
我認為 Jack 在他關於我們稱之為 Vype iSwitch 的第一世界加熱刀片技術的演講中強調得非常好,我們剛剛在我們的 Vype 商店試行這項技術。
In our Vype stores, it has reached 25% of market share after a couple of months.
在我們的 Vype 商店中,它在幾個月後已達到 25% 的市場份額。
It just shows that the portfolio that comes into place now in all these categories, the snus product that we're launching in Switzerland, this product that we're launching here in the second half where we're coming for a hybrid product in Japan, all these things is coming to fruition now, and I think that we -- starting earlier is always the best way to be innovative in any place.
它只是表明現在所有這些類別的產品組合,我們在瑞士推出的鼻煙產品,我們在下半年在這裡推出的這款產品,我們將在日本推出混合產品,所有這些事情現在正在取得成果,我認為我們 - 更早開始始終是在任何地方進行創新的最佳方式。
In 2 weeks' time, as I said, during the capital -- during the meeting, we will showcase the innovations that we have.
兩週後,正如我所說,在首都會議期間,我們將展示我們擁有的創新。
We said last year that most of them were going to be executed at the beginning of this year.
我們去年就說過,他們中的大部分人將在今年年初被處決。
They are -- the THP, for example, the majority of the launches was second half of last year, September, and I think that we will see the results this year.
他們是——例如,THP,大部分發射是在去年下半年,即 9 月,我認為我們將在今年看到結果。
So we're very optimistic about that.
所以我們對此非常樂觀。
But you'll have a little bit more detail in 2 weeks' time.
但您將在 2 週後獲得更多詳細信息。
I'll have to stop here.
我將不得不在這裡停下來。
If not, I will kill the Capital Markets Day.
否則,我將扼殺資本市場日。
So Jack, would like to take the third question?
傑克,想回答第三個問題嗎?
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Yes, what was the third question?
是的,第三個問題是什麼?
It was around JUUL?
是在 JUUL 附近嗎?
Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst
Gaurav Jain - Research Analyst
Yes.
是的。
What I was asking is that Altria has spoken about helping JUUL on retail shelves, retail placement, also putting in pack inserts of JUUL within Marlboro packets.
我要問的是,奧馳亞已經談到在零售貨架、零售佈局方面幫助 JUUL,還將 JUUL 的包裝插入物放入萬寶路包裝中。
So why can't you have a similar strategy around your vaping business in helping your vaping products with the strength of your cigarette portfolio?
那麼為什麼你不能圍繞你的電子煙業務制定類似的策略來幫助你的電子煙產品利用你的香煙產品組合的優勢呢?
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Yes, it's a very good question.
是的,這是一個很好的問題。
We're looking at the moment at all the different options for us to accelerate the development of our portfolio, and especially, related to Alto that has seen a very good performance.
目前,我們正在研究所有不同的選擇,以加快我們產品組合的發展,尤其是與表現非常出色的 Alto 相關的產品。
What we do with Alto is gradually to increase the pressure especially in terms of consumer engagement because we had some shortfalls in terms of availability of products, and we are now going full blast.
我們對 Alto 所做的是逐漸增加壓力,尤其是在消費者參與方面,因為我們在產品可用性方面存在一些不足,而我們現在正在全力以赴。
As we said in the presentation, the results are extremely good, more than 5%, and we want to continue that.
正如我們在演示中所說,結果非常好,超過 5%,我們希望繼續這樣做。
And we're exploring all the different avenues related to the best way to promote our products.
我們正在探索與推廣我們產品的最佳方式相關的所有不同途徑。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Okay.
好的。
Any other question?
還有其他問題嗎?
Yes, please.
是的,請。
Owen Michael Bennett - Equity Analyst
Owen Michael Bennett - Equity Analyst
Owen Bennett at Jefferies.
Jefferies 的歐文·貝內特 (Owen Bennett)。
I just had a question on the outlook for NGP, particularly for 2019, if you could give any more visibility on a sales target this year.
我只是對 NGP 的前景有一個問題,特別是 2019 年,如果你能對今年的銷售目標有更多的了解。
And then, the GBP 5 billion a few years out, I mean, that could be seen by the market as slightly underwhelming when you consider where consensus expectations are for '19 at one of your competitors now.
然後,幾年後的 50 億英鎊,我的意思是,當你考慮到你的一個競爭對手現在對 19 年的普遍預期時,市場可能會認為這有點讓人失望。
And I just -- considering the market has concerns around your [RRP] outlook, I'm just wondering, do you think that number is somewhat conservative in 2023?
我只是 - 考慮到市場對你的 [RRP] 前景感到擔憂,我只是想知道,你認為這個數字在 2023 年是否有些保守?
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Well, we -- if you put the numbers together, since we did GBP 900 million in 2018 -- and by the way, we did the GBP 900 million reducing significantly the stock level that we had traded at the end of '18, just to highlight this point because we have a huge pipeline of innovations coming in 2019.
好吧,我們——如果你把這些數字放在一起,因為我們在 2018 年做了 9 億英鎊——順便說一下,我們做了 9 億英鎊,大大降低了我們在 18 年底交易的股票水平,只是強調這一點是因為我們將在 2019 年推出大量創新產品。
We saw the slowdown of the category in Japan.
我們看到了日本該類別的放緩。
So we reduced the stock level at the end of '18.
所以我們在 18 年底降低了庫存水平。
If you had kept the stock level that we had planned initially, our numbers would be much higher than GBP 900 million, but just to highlight this point because there was a question that came today about that.
如果您保持我們最初計劃的庫存水平,我們的數字將遠高於 9 億英鎊,但只是為了強調這一點,因為今天有一個問題與此有關。
Having said that, if you put the GBP 900 million and you look at 2023, 2024, you're talking about a growth of around 30% to 50% every year on average.
話雖如此,如果你投入 9 億英鎊,看看 2023 年、2024 年,你所說的平均每年增長約 30% 至 50%。
And we still think that it is feasible.
而且我們仍然認為這是可行的。
We will have 2 weeks' time, as I said, if you keep your question, you have all the plan's detail in terms then how we are going to achieve this GBP 5 billion, why we are confident about that, the rate of growth that you have by category, modern oral, vaping and THP, and we'll try to explain in a much more detail, I expect.
正如我所說,我們將有 2 週的時間,如果你保留你的問題,你有所有計劃的細節,那麼我們將如何實現這 50 億英鎊,為什麼我們對此充滿信心,增長率你有按類別分類的現代口服電子煙、電子煙和 THP,我希望我們會嘗試更詳細地解釋。
I'm not going to give you our target for '19, but I think that average 30% to 50% growth every single year is a number that we believe that's achievable.
我不會給你我們 19 年的目標,但我認為每年平均增長 30% 到 50% 是我們認為可以實現的數字。
I think that in some years, it's going to be better than that.
我認為在某些年內,它會比那更好。
In some years, it depends on the growth of the category in a specific country.
在某些年份,這取決於該類別在特定國家/地區的增長。
Like Japan, 70% of the category in Japan.
像日本,70%的品類在日本。
We see -- you saw the slowdown last year.
我們看到 - 你看到了去年的放緩。
Of course, there is an impact in terms of growth.
當然,在增長方面有影響。
But in 2 weeks' time, you have a much more detail in these new categories, one by one, what to expect for growth in the next 5 years.
但是在 2 週的時間內,您將對這些新類別有更多的詳細信息,一個一個地了解未來 5 年的增長預期。
And how we are going to achieve that?
我們將如何實現這一目標?
Power by innovation on portfolio.
以產品組合創新為動力。
We have a question here.
我們在這裡有一個問題。
Fulvio Cazzol - Equity Analyst
Fulvio Cazzol - Equity Analyst
Fulvio Cazzol from Goldman Sachs.
來自高盛的 Fulvio Cazzol。
Just a couple for me.
對我來說只是一對。
You normally give us a bit of a sense of how you see the pricing environment in combustibles, for example, how much of your planned price increases you have already taken by around this time.
您通常會讓我們了解一下您如何看待可燃物的定價環境,例如,您大約在這個時候已經接受了多少計劃的價格上漲。
And then my second question is on the modern oral tobacco, which you commented quite a lot about your developments in Europe.
然後我的第二個問題是關於現代口腔煙草,你對歐洲的發展發表了很多評論。
Can you maybe give a bit of a comment on the U.S. what your plans are there given that one of your competitors seems to be growing quite nicely in that market?
考慮到您的一個競爭對手似乎在該市場上的增長相當不錯,您能否對美國發表一些評論?您的計劃是什麼?
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
I'll take the first question, and Jack, you take the second ones, okay?
我來回答第一個問題,傑克,你來回答第二個問題,好嗎?
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Yes.
是的。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
The first question is about pricing.
第一個問題是關於定價。
Listen, the price environment is very solid.
聽著,價格環境非常穩固。
Last year, we had a price mix of 7%.
去年,我們的價格組合為 7%。
6% came from combustible.
6% 來自可燃物。
Remember that question last year that all the price was being driven by new categories.
請記住去年的問題,即所有價格都由新類別驅動。
That's why we want to split the numbers because we think that's very solid.
這就是我們想要拆分數字的原因,因為我們認為這非常可靠。
I don't see this changing for 2019.
我認為這在 2019 年不會改變。
As you know, the majority of the price, it usually happens in the first half of the year.
如您所知,大部分價格通常發生在上半年。
So it's very solid.
所以它非常堅固。
In terms of the pricing that you have gotten so far, I think that is around the same one that we had last year around this time, around 60%.
就你們目前獲得的定價而言,我認為這與我們去年這個時候的定價大致相同,約為 60%。
So very solid.
非常堅固。
We have good expectations.
我們有很好的期望。
The price environment is very solid, but this is an aggregation of a lot of different markets, 200 markets.
價格環境非常穩固,但這是許多不同市場、200 個市場的集合。
But given -- talking about something that already happened, because I cannot talk anything about what's going to happen, but U.S., for example, came ahead of plan in terms of timing, came ahead of last year and a very solid price increase of $5.50 per 1,000.
但考慮到 - 談論已經發生的事情,因為我無法談論將要發生的事情,但是美國,例如,在時間方面提前了計劃,提前於去年並且非常穩定的價格上漲了 5.50 美元每 1,000。
But it's a solid price environment that I see out there.
但我看到的是一個穩定的價格環境。
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
In terms of modern oral.
就現代口語而言。
First, on oral, what is interesting is that the consumers are younger, the consumers are more educated, and the consumers are with more income.
首先,在口頭上,有趣的是消費者更年輕,消費者受教育程度更高,消費者收入更高。
So it's an extremely interesting category.
所以這是一個非常有趣的類別。
The second point related to the different first developments that we had in Scandinavia and Switzerland plus the test that we're doing in U.K. At the moment, they are very encouraging in terms of the ritual and the understanding of the consumer.
第二點與我們在斯堪的納維亞和瑞士的不同初步發展以及我們在英國進行的測試有關。目前,它們在儀式和對消費者的理解方面非常令人鼓舞。
In the U.S., it's a very interesting category because the mature category of traditional oral is already there.
在美國,這是一個非常有趣的類別,因為傳統口語的成熟類別已經存在。
There is a great opportunity for this category moving forward.
這個類別有很大的發展機會。
Why?
為什麼?
Because in a lot of places, the occasions and the opportunities for the smokers to use the products are reduced.
因為在很多地方,吸煙者使用產品的場合和機會都減少了。
And in big cities, there will be some possibilities to develop that kind of products.
而在大城市,會有一些開發這類產品的可能性。
More and more people are trying these products, and we're putting a lot of efforts in our U.S. business to develop that category as fast as possible.
越來越多的人正在嘗試這些產品,我們正在美國業務中投入大量精力以盡快開發該類別。
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
But we -- I'm just adding that we already have a modern oral product with a PMTA approval for the U.S. So we're in a position to test market that pretty much immediately.
但我們——我只是補充說,我們已經有了一種現代口服產品,並獲得了美國 PMTA 的批准。所以我們幾乎可以立即測試市場。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Another question?
另一個問題?
Yes.
是的。
James Edwardes Jones - MD and Analyst
James Edwardes Jones - MD and Analyst
James Edwardes Jones from RBC.
來自 RBC 的詹姆斯·愛德華茲·瓊斯。
Can I ask about your attitude towards your stake in ITC?
請問您對ITC持股的態度?
Obviously, your indebtedness is a concern amongst investors at the moment.
顯然,您的債務目前是投資者關注的問題。
Under what circumstances, if any, would you consider disposing of all or part of that ITC estate to allay those concerns?
在什麼情況下(如果有的話)您會考慮處置全部或部分 ITC 財產以消除這些擔憂?
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
I don't think it's something that we necessarily need to consider.
我認為這不是我們必須考慮的事情。
First of all, our stake in ITC is a strategic stake for us.
首先,我們在 ITC 的股份是我們的戰略股份。
There'll be more Indians than Chinese out there in a few years' time.
幾年後印度人會比中國人多。
The segments in India are quite attractive.
印度的細分市場非常有吸引力。
There's a big oral segment in India, for example.
例如,印度有一個很大的口語部分。
And we thoroughly support the ITC strategy going forward, and they're doing a very, very good job.
我們完全支持 ITC 未來的戰略,他們做得非常非常好。
And secondly, we're not particularly concerned about deleveraging.
其次,我們並不特別擔心去槓桿化。
We generate more than GBP 1.5 billion of free cash flow every year.
我們每年產生超過 15 億英鎊的自由現金流。
It's enough to take GBP 0.4 billion, GBP 0.5 billion of our net debt to EBITDA figure.
這足以將 4 億英鎊、5 億英鎊的淨債務計入 EBITDA 數字。
So we're very comfortable with that as well.
所以我們對此也很滿意。
So I don't think it's 2 things that you should necessarily put together.
所以我不認為你應該把兩件事放在一起。
Deleveraging will happen because of a strong cash generation, and we are fully supportive of ITC and our shareholding unit.
由於強勁的現金產生,去槓桿化將會發生,我們完全支持 ITC 和我們的股東單位。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
We have a question over there.
我們在那裡有一個問題。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Three questions, if I can.
三個問題,如果可以的話。
First of all, this is just for Jack.
首先,這只是給傑克的。
What are you going to do differently?
你打算做什麼不同的事情?
Could you -- then I've got some other question.
你能-- 那麼我還有一些其他問題。
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
Jack Marie Henry David Bowles - Member of Management Board, COO of International Business & Director
I can start with this one.
我可以從這個開始。
I can start with this one.
我可以從這個開始。
Do differently?
做不同的?
First of all is what I think is very important for the business.
首先是我認為對企業來說非常重要的事情。
What is very important for the business is we have a strong strategy that we have to more and more execute to a level where we can harvest more the results moving forward.
對企業來說非常重要的是我們有一個強有力的戰略,我們必須越來越多地執行到一個水平,以便我們可以在前進中收穫更多的結果。
We have been extremely good in the combustible business, and the combustible business is the most important category because it pays both for the dividend and it helps us to deleverage the company.
我們在可燃業務方面做得非常好,可燃業務是最重要的類別,因為它既支付股息,又幫助我們去槓桿化公司。
So that's a very important business.
所以這是一項非常重要的業務。
We have a certain market share, and we're growing, since 8 years, market share every year.
我們擁有一定的市場份額,而且自 8 年來,我們的市場份額每年都在增長。
The second point is the new categories.
第二點是新品類。
As Nicandro referred to, more and more people are speaking about the right approach of being multicategory, and we're going to continue to push in those multicategories.
正如 Nicandro 所提到的,越來越多的人在談論多類別的正確方法,我們將繼續推動這些多類別。
We will continue to develop what we spoke about in terms of oral.
我們將繼續以口頭方式發展我們所說的內容。
Also in THP, we focused in Japan, and we put the right level of investment in order to make sure that we are successful in Japan, which we are.
同樣在 THP 中,我們專注於日本,我們進行了適當的投資,以確保我們在日本取得成功,而我們也確實如此。
We have started in Q4 to take some positions in Western Europe, specifically, and will continue to do so.
我們已經從第四季度開始在西歐採取一些立場,特別是,並將繼續這樣做。
In terms of oral we have, --sorry, in terms of e-cigarettes, we have launches like Alto and others to come in the second half of the year.
在口頭方面,我們有——抱歉,在電子煙方面,我們將在今年下半年推出像 Alto 和其他產品這樣的產品。
So we will stay true to the category.
因此,我們將忠於該類別。
The strategy is right.
戰略是對的。
We are expanding our footprint, and we're going to continue to push for the delivery of the results.
我們正在擴大我們的足跡,我們將繼續推動成果的交付。
But I think it will be much easier on the 14th to go more in details in the plan and to explain what are the differences and the accelerations that we're going to have.
但我認為在 14 日更容易在計劃中詳細說明並解釋我們將擁有的差異和加速。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
I just want to make sure that I heard 2 things right.
我只是想確保我聽到了兩件事。
I think you said that right at the beginning you expect to be market leaders, both in heated tobacco and e-vapor over time.
我想你一開始就說過,隨著時間的推移,你希望成為加熱煙草和電子蒸汽的市場領導者。
And I also think I heard, but I may have gotten this wrong, that total sort of amount of investments in NGPs is going to be about flat year-on-year, so we're not expecting another margin to reset.
而且我也認為我聽說過,但我可能弄錯了,NGP 的總投資額將與去年同期持平,因此我們預計不會再重新設定利潤率。
You are fundamentally thinking that both the investment is correct and it will lead to market leadership in the various categories.
您從根本上認為投資是正確的,並且會導致在各個類別中的市場領導地位。
Does that -- have I got that right?
那是——我說對了嗎?
Or am I missing anything?
還是我錯過了什麼?
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
I think that you have because I've been saying that for the last 8 years.
我認為你有,因為我在過去 8 年裡一直這麼說。
I'm just saying something now that I said every single year because BAT doesn't get into business like that to be the #2 or #3.
我現在只是在說我每年都會說的話,因為 BAT 不會像第二或第三那樣進入業務。
We have shown in combustible our capabilities.
我們已經在可燃物中展示了我們的能力。
We are the only company that has grown market share 8 years in a row and consistently.
我們是唯一一家市場份額連續 8 年持續增長的公司。
And if you look at the just the -- our Global Drive Brands as compared to the Global Drive Brands of the competition, we have grown more than 500 basis points in 8 years.
而且,如果您只看 - 我們的全球驅動品牌與競爭對手的全球驅動品牌相比,我們在 8 年內增長了 500 多個基點。
So I think that can replicate this kind of performance in the other categories.
所以我認為可以在其他類別中復制這種性能。
Yes, the objective is to be the leaders in each of the categories.
是的,目標是成為每個類別的領導者。
In vaping, by the way, we are global leaders already, with more market share.
順便說一下,在電子煙方面,我們已經是全球領導者,擁有更多的市場份額。
But if you look at the performance of United States, the recent performance, and this doesn't happen because we wake up in a single day and say, "Now we needed to do better in U.S." We have been developing a portfolio to be able to have this kind of performance in the last 6 months.
但如果你看看美國的表現,最近的表現,這不會發生,因為我們在一天內醒來並說,“現在我們需要在美國做得更好。”在過去的 6 個月中,我們一直在開發能夠實現這種性能的產品組合。
If you look at the target segments that we are in United States, we have been leading there for some time.
如果你看看我們在美國的目標細分市場,我們已經領先了一段時間。
So I think that you can do the same in THP.
所以我認為你可以在 THP 中做同樣的事情。
I hope that in 2 weeks' time you guys will feel as confident as I'm feeling that this is going to be achieved.
我希望在 2 週後你們會像我一樣相信這會實現。
In oral, we are global leaders as well if you consider the position that you have in U.S. So you heard quite well.
在口頭上,如果你考慮你在美國的職位,我們也是全球領導者,所以你聽得很好。
I have been saying this for 8 years.
我已經說了8年了。
And probably -- I won't be here next year, but I have high expectations, as a watchful shareholder and a big shareholder of BAT, that Jack will keep saying that.
明年我可能不會來這裡,但作為 BAT 的警惕股東和大股東,我寄予厚望,傑克會繼續這麼說。
And I hope that you achieve it as soon as possible.
我希望你盡快實現它。
That's the first question.
這是第一個問題。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
Did I understand Ben's point, that margin isn't going to be reset again?
我是否理解 Ben 的觀點,保證金不會再次重置?
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
Yes.
是的。
We invested quite a lot more in the Next Generation Products category this year compared to last year.
與去年相比,我們今年在下一代產品類別上的投資要多得多。
During 2019, it will be roughly a similar result from Next Generation Products.
2019 年,下一代產品的結果大致相似。
There won't be the drag on margin that there was last year as a result of increasing the investment in the Next Generation Products.
由於增加了對下一代產品的投資,去年的利潤率不會受到拖累。
NGPs will then move to a position of being a net contributor to the group.
然後,NGP 將成為該組的淨貢獻者。
And that's why I'm confident, one of the reasons, anyway, I'm very confident, we'll continue to grow our operating margin 50 to 100 basis points a year.
這就是為什麼我有信心,原因之一,無論如何,我非常有信心,我們將繼續以每年 50 到 100 個基點的速度增長我們的營業利潤率。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
And that turnaround will be 2020, you hope?
你希望這種轉變將在 2020 年發生嗎?
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
Well, we'll start.
好吧,我們開始吧。
It's increased investment last year, flat this year, and then it starts sort of turning out beyond that, yes.
它去年增加了投資,今年持平,然後它開始有點超越,是的。
But it does -- just being -- I mean, it does depend on the opportunities we see.
但它確實 - 只是存在 - 我的意思是,它確實取決於我們看到的機會。
Obviously, if we see a bigger opportunity to go faster in modern oral in a particular country, then we will put investment behind it.
顯然,如果我們看到某個國家在現代口語方面有更大的機會走得更快,那麼我們就會投入資金支持它。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
And then the final question.
然後是最後一個問題。
And I don't know whether it's easy to answer this.
我不知道回答這個問題是否容易。
But you've obviously set out leverage targets.
但你顯然已經設定了槓桿目標。
We've got an exciting announcement on tomorrow evening.
明天晚上我們有一個激動人心的消息。
And I'm just wondering whether that 0.4 to 0.5 reduction in multiple, how litigation plays into that.
我只是想知道,倍數是否減少了 0.4 到 0.5,訴訟是如何發揮作用的。
Could Engle disrupt that?
恩格爾能破壞它嗎?
How are you thinking about the ongoing payments you have to make or might have to make for the Engle progeny and potentially putting more money -- or losing money in Canada?
你如何看待你必須或可能必須為恩格爾後代支付的持續款項,以及可能投入更多資金——或者在加拿大賠錢?
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
Okay, we'll have to wait until tomorrow to see what happens in Canada, but pretty much whatever happens tomorrow won't be the end of the story because it's much more likely that those cases will be appealed either by us or by the other side to the Supreme Court.
好吧,我們必須等到明天才能看到加拿大會發生什麼,但明天發生的事情幾乎不會是故事的結局,因為這些案件更有可能被我們或其他人上訴最高法院一方。
I think it's unlikely that the Supreme Court wouldn't take a case of such magnitude in Canada.
我認為最高法院不太可能不受理加拿大如此重大的案件。
So Canada's probably got many years still before it plays out.
所以加拿大可能還有很多年才能發揮作用。
Engle progeny cases are pretty much business as usual now because we have a certain number of cases a year, we lose a certain number, we win a certain number, and that's a cash drain on income and has been for a number of years.
Engle 後代案件現在幾乎和往常一樣,因為我們每年有一定數量的案件,我們失去了一定數量,我們贏得了一定數量,這是收入的現金流失,並且已經持續了很多年。
Whatever happens in Canada, it's sure that we will continue to consolidate Canadian results.
無論加拿大發生什麼,我們肯定會繼續鞏固加拿大的成果。
So Canada will gradually build up cash.
因此,加拿大將逐漸積累現金。
It won't be paying dividends to BAT, but it lends that money to BAT, and it will still be consolidated as a part of our results.
它不會向 BAT 支付股息,但它會將這筆錢借給 BAT,並且它仍將作為我們業績的一部分進行合併。
So I don't see anything major changing from an accounting perspective after tomorrow.
因此,從明天之後的會計角度來看,我認為不會有任何重大變化。
We will have to see what the actual outcome of the case is and what legal strategy we pursue beyond that.
我們將不得不看看案件的實際結果是什麼,以及除此之外我們採取什麼法律策略。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Any other questions?
還有其他問題嗎?
Yes, Gerry.
是的,格里。
Gerry Gallagher - European Tobacco, Spirits and Food (Co-Coverage) Analyst
Gerry Gallagher - European Tobacco, Spirits and Food (Co-Coverage) Analyst
I have to stand up for my question -- or maybe it should be an observation.
我必須站出來回答我的問題——或者它應該是一個觀察。
I couldn't let today pass without saying a few words, Nicandro, as you move onto your retirement.
尼坎德羅,當你即將退休時,我不能不說幾句話就讓今天過去。
Ben, your turn will come in 6 months.
本,6 個月後輪到你。
You will have to wait 6 months.
您將需要等待 6 個月。
I've known you bit longer than Nicandro, so all I can say is I would start worrying now if I was you.
我認識你的時間比 Nicandro 長,所以我只能說,如果我是你,我現在就會開始擔心了。
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
John Benedict Stevens - Finance Director & Executive Director
[You'll be retiring] sometime as well.
[你也會退休]。
Gerry Gallagher - European Tobacco, Spirits and Food (Co-Coverage) Analyst
Gerry Gallagher - European Tobacco, Spirits and Food (Co-Coverage) Analyst
Yes, my position is less grand than yours so I can take it.
是的,我的職位沒有你那麼高大上,所以我可以接受。
When I was preparing my comments as to what I would say about Nicandro over the last few days, a couple of things kept occurring to me that may preoccupy me.
過去幾天,當我準備就我將對 Nicandro 說些什麼發表評論時,我不斷想到一些可能讓我全神貫注的事情。
The first one is that when Jack is accedes to the role, he will be my fourth BAT CEO, and I only just missed Patrick Sheehy.
第一個是當 Jack 接任這個角色時,他將成為我的第四任 BAT CEO,而我只是想念 Patrick Sheehy。
And there's a few people in this room who remember those days but not many on the investor and analyst side, and there may even be a few on the BAT side who were not around at that time, but I was.
在這個房間裡有幾個人還記得那些日子,但在投資者和分析師方面並不多,在 BAT 方面甚至可能有一些人當時不在,但我在。
But it occurred to me that, based on my wife's one-woman mission to keep Amazon and the John Lewis Partnership going, the recurring theme in my life that is school fees and the stock price of my employer, that I may be here to see another 4 BAT CEOs.
但我突然想到,基於我妻子讓亞馬遜和 John Lewis Partnership 繼續運轉的單身女性使命,我生活中反復出現的主題是學費和我雇主的股票價格,我可能會在這裡看到另外4位BAT CEO。
And that was one of life's more sobering thoughts.
這是生活中更清醒的想法之一。
The other point that occurred to me was I was paranoid as to whether I would get Nicandro's citizenship correct as to whether he was Brazilian-Italian or Italian-Brazilian, and I was paranoid about getting it wrong.
我想到的另一點是,我偏執地懷疑我是否會正確判斷 Nicandro 的公民身份,即他是巴西-意大利人還是意大利-巴西人,而且我對弄錯了。
And then it occurred to me that it didn't really matter.
然後我覺得這並不重要。
And the reason it didn't really matter was because both football teams are not very good.
而這並不重要的原因是因為兩支球隊都不是很好。
Now you may recall that Italy never even made the World Cup, and Brazil was beaten by a country with about a 10th of the population, if not less than itself.
現在你可能還記得,意大利甚至從未進入過世界杯,而巴西被一個人口只有其十分之一的國家擊敗,如果不少於它的話。
Not that there's anything wrong with Belgium, but that is, nevertheless, a fact.
並不是說比利時有什麼問題,但這是事實。
And the one thing that I did promise myself was I would not mention the Italian rugby team.
我向自己保證的一件事是我不會提到意大利橄欖球隊。
So I won't.
所以我不會。
Moving onto slightly more serious matters.
轉向稍微嚴肅一點的事情。
I just think it's worth taking a step back and looking at some of the metrics at BAT that have changed under Nicandro's tenure as the CEO: Revenues have gone from GBP 15 billion to GBP 24 billion.
我只是認為值得退後一步,看看 BAT 的一些指標在 Nicandro 擔任首席執行官期間發生了變化:收入從 150 億英鎊增加到 240 億英鎊。
The earnings have gone from 106 -- 176p to, as we've seen today, 297p.
正如我們今天看到的那樣,收益從 106-176 便士增加到 297 便士。
The dividend's gone from GBP 114 million to, as we've seen today, GBP 203 million.
股息從 1.14 億英鎊變成了我們今天看到的 2.03 億英鎊。
And the margins have grown by 1,000 basis points from 33% to 43%.
利潤率從 33% 增長了 1,000 個基點至 43%。
And the EV of the business has grown from GBP 60 billion to GBP 110 billion.
該業務的 EV 從 600 億英鎊增長到 1100 億英鎊。
If we then move on to consider some more strategic and operational matters, a few things occurred to me over the time of Nicandro's tenure: Nicoventures was created.
如果我們接著考慮一些更具戰略性和運營性的問題,在 Nicandro 任職期間我想到了一些事情:創建了 Nicoventures。
And we've seen today that oral, THP and vaping have contributed GBP 900 million of revenue and more if they hadn't decided to take some stock out ahead out of their launches.
我們今天已經看到,口服、THP 和 vaping 已經貢獻了 9 億英鎊的收入,如果他們沒有決定在推出前減少一些庫存的話,還會更多。
They've launched glo and Vype.
他們推出了 glo 和 Vype。
And as we've seen today, this is the eighth year in a row where global share in combustibles has grown.
正如我們今天所見,這是全球可燃物份額連續第八年增長。
You created the JV with the CNTC.
您與 CNTC 創建了 JV。
You bought in the Souza Cruz minority, a business I know you know very well.
你收購了 Souza Cruz 少數族裔,我知道你非常了解這家公司。
You part financed the Reynolds acquisition of Lorillard.
你為 Reynolds 對 Lorillard 的收購提供了部分資金。
And finally, you acquired the Reynolds business itself.
最後,您收購了 Reynolds 業務本身。
So I think it's fair to say or fair to conclude that, operationally, strategically, and geographically, Nicandro leaves the business today, as he said himself, in a very strong position, and it's something I personally concur with.
因此,我認為可以公平地說或公平地得出這樣的結論,即在運營、戰略和地理上,尼坎德羅今天離開公司,正如他自己所說的那樣,處於非常有利的地位,這是我個人同意的。
So with that, I'd like to take the opportunity from the investment and analytical community to wish you all the very best in your retirement and very well done.
因此,我想藉此機會從投資和分析界祝愿你們退休後一切順利,幹得好。
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Nicandro Durante - CEO & Executive Director
Okay, guys.
好的,伙計們。
Thank you very much, Gerry.
非常感謝你,格里。
You were doing well until raising the football thing.
你做得很好,直到提出足球的事情。
And -- but that's fine.
而且 - 但那很好。
Okay.
好的。
I really appreciate the words.
我真的很感激這些話。
But thank you for listening.
但謝謝你的聆聽。
I'd like to take this opportunity to thank our investors for being with us and supporting the business in the last years.
我想藉此機會感謝我們的投資者在過去幾年中與我們在一起並支持我們的業務。
And it has been an honor to serve BAT as a CEO.
能夠擔任 BAT 的 CEO 是我的榮幸。
As I said, I'll remain as a watchful shareholder.
正如我所說,我將繼續作為一名警惕的股東。
I will be calling Jack on a monthly basis, and I hope that over time, I'll call less and less and less.
我會每月給傑克打電話,我希望隨著時間的推移,我會越來越少打電話。
But I have a huge amount of shares in BAT, and I will keep them.
但是我在BAT有大量的股份,我會一直持有。
And the reason that I'm going to keep my shares in BAT, because I think that we have a fantastic strategy.
我之所以要保留我在 BAT 的股份,是因為我認為我們有一個很棒的戰略。
We have a fantastic talent across the group.
我們整個團隊都擁有出色的人才。
And I truly believe, as a shareholder, that this business is going to do extremely well going forward under the leadership of Jack.
作為股東,我真的相信,在傑克的領導下,這項業務將會做得非常好。
Okay.
好的。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
And all the best, and we are going to see each other in 2 weeks' time.
祝一切順利,我們將在 2 週後見面。
I won't be there, but I will get some updates during the day, I hope.
我不會在那裡,但我希望白天能收到一些更新。
But it will be a fantastic Capital Markets Day.
但這將是一個美妙的資本市場日。
We have been working for that for some time and I hope that you guys will enjoy that.
我們為此努力了一段時間,我希望你們會喜歡。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。