Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Brown & Brown, Inc., first-quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 Brown & Brown, Inc. 第一季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and including answers given in response to your questions, may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature. Such statements reflect our current views with respect to future events, including those relating to the company's anticipated financial results for the first quarter and are intended to fall within the Safe Harbor provisions of the securities laws.

請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些信息，包括與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片演示中包含的信息以及對您的問題的回答，可能與未來的結果和事件有關，或者俱有前瞻性。此類聲明反映了我們目前對未來事件的看法，包括與公司第一季預期財務業績有關的看法，並旨在符合證券法的安全港條款。

Actual results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desired or references to any forward-looking statements made as a result of a number of factors.

未來的實際結果或事件受多種風險和不確定性的影響，可能與當前預期或期望的結果或由於多種因素而做出的任何前瞻性陳述有重大差異。

Such factors include the company's determination as it finalizes its financial results for the first quarter, that is financial results for the first quarter that its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday, other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified, and those risks and uncertainties identified from time to time in the company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些因素包括公司在最終確定第一季財務結果時的決定，即第一季的財務結果與昨天發布的新聞稿中所述的當前初步未經審計的數字不同，公司目前可能尚未確定或量化的其他因素，以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中不時確定的風險和不確定性。

Additional discussion of those and other factors affecting the company's business prospects as well as additional information regarding forward-looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

有關這些因素和其他影響公司業務前景的因素的更多討論以及有關前瞻性陳述的更多信息，包含在與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片演示中以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務，無論其是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

In addition, there are certain non-GAAP financial measures used in this conference call. A reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company's website at www.bbinsurance.com by clicking on the Investor Relations and then Calendar of Events.

此外，本次電話會議也使用了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。任何非 GAAP 財務指標與最可比較 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表均可在公司收益新聞稿或公司網站 www.bbinsurance.com 上針對本次電話會議的投資者介紹中找到，方法是點擊“投資者關係”，然後點擊“事件日曆”。

With that said, I will now turn the call over to Powell Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.

話雖如此，我現在將電話轉給總裁兼執行長鮑威爾布朗。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. Once again, our team delivered strong top and bottom line results. I'll provide some high-level comments regarding this performance, along with updates on -- in the insurance market and the M&A landscape. Andy will then discuss our financial performance in more detail. And lastly, I'll wrap up with some closing thoughts before we open it up to Q&A.

謝謝，凱文。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第一季財報電話會議。我們的團隊再次取得了強勁的營收和利潤表現。我將就這一表現提供一些高層評論，以及保險市場和併購情況的最新情況。然後安迪將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。最後，在我們開始問答環節之前，我將總結一下。

So now let's get into the results. I'm on slide 4. For the first quarter, we delivered revenues of $1.4 billion, growing 11.6% in total and 6.5% organically as compared to the same period in the prior year. Our adjusted EBITDAC margin improved over 100 basis points to 38.1% and our adjusted earnings per share grew over 13% to $1.29. On the M&A front, we completed 13 acquisitions with estimated annual revenues of $36 million. This consistently strong performance is a direct result of the dedication of our team of nearly 18,000 teammates.

現在讓我們來看看結果。我在第 4 張投影片。第一季度，我們的營收為 14 億美元，與去年同期相比，總成長 11.6%，有機成長 6.5%。我們的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率提高了 100 多個基點，達到 38.1%，調整後每股收益成長了 13% 以上，達到 1.29 美元。在併購方面，我們完成了 13 項收購，預計年收入為 3,600 萬美元。這種持續強勁的表現直接歸功於我們團隊近 18,000 名隊友的奉獻精神。

I'm on slide 5. Main topic for the quarter was uncertainty related to tariffs, inflation and interest rates and how they might impact economic expansion. Overall, we did not see buyers of insurance materially changed their outlook, but we did see some business leaders shift to being more cautious. Generally, companies are still hiring and investing in their businesses.

我在第 5 張投影片。本季的主要議題是與關稅、通貨膨脹和利率相關的不確定性以及它們如何影響經濟擴張。整體而言，我們並未看到保險購買者的觀點發生實質改變，但我們確實看到一些企業領導者變得更加謹慎。總體而言，公司仍在招聘員工並投資業務。

However, in certain cases, you're seeing some new projects put on hold for a few months due to these uncertainties. Presently, we would say the levels of investment in people and assets are fairly consistent with the past few quarters. We view this as a positive.

然而，在某些情況下，你會看到一些新項目因為這些不確定性而被擱置幾個月。目前，我們可以說對人員和資產的投資水準與過去幾季相當一致。我們認為這是一件正面的事。

Overall, the economies in which we operate are relatively stable and business owners remain optimistic, but have a tempered view regarding the level of growth over the coming quarters. From an insurance pricing standpoint, rate increases from most lines continued and were fairly consistent with the prior few quarters. However, they're moderating downwards slightly as compared to last year. The outliers continue to be auto and casualty that are increasing and CAT property continued to soften during the quarter. We'll get into more detail about the CAT property in a couple of minutes.

整體而言，我們經營所在的經濟相對穩定，企業主保持樂觀，但對未來幾季的成長水準持謹慎態度。從保險定價的角度來看，大多數險種的費率持續上漲，並且與前幾季基本一致。然而，與去年相比，這一增速略有下降。異常值繼續為汽車和意外險，且該季度該險種持續增加，而 CAT 財產險則繼續走軟。我們將在幾分鐘內更詳細地介紹 CAT 屬性。

Pricing for US employee benefits in the first quarter was similar to prior quarters as medical and pharmacy costs remain up 7% to 9%. The outlier continues to be pharmacy, which is growing faster than medical. This ongoing upward pressure and the complexity of health care continue to drive strong demand for our employee benefits consulting businesses.

由於醫療和藥品成本仍然上漲 7% 至 9%，第一季美國員工福利定價與前幾季相似。異常值仍然是藥房，其成長速度快於醫療產業。這種持續的上行壓力和醫療保健的複雜性繼續推動對我們的員工福利諮詢業務的強勁需求。

Rates in the admitted P&C market moderated slightly as compared to last quarter and were up 2% to 7% from most lines versus the prior year. The downward trend for workers' compensation remain in most states and they were flat to down 5%.

與上一季相比，已獲準經營的財產險和意外險市場的費率略有下降，與去年相比，大多數險種的費率上漲了 2% 至 7%。大多數州的工人賠償金仍呈下降趨勢，從持平到下降 5%。

For the first quarter, rate increases for non-CAT property were in the range of flat to up 5%, which is similar to the prior few quarters. For casualty, we continue to see rate increases for primary and excess layers. Consistent with the last few quarters, rates for excess casualty increased in the range of five to -- sorry, 5% to 10%. Placing higher limits or layers continues to be very challenging, both from a pricing perspective and the availability of limits. For professional liability, rates were flat to up 5% as compared to last year.

第一季度，非巨災財產保險費率漲幅在持平至上漲 5% 之間，與前幾季的情況相似。對於意外險，我們繼續看到主要險種和超額險種的費率上漲。與前幾季的情況一致，超額傷亡率增加了 5% 到 10%。無論從定價角度還是從限制的可用性來看，設定更高的限製或層級仍然非常具有挑戰性。對於專業責任，費率與去年相比持平或上漲 5%。

Shifting to the E&S property market. As we entered the first quarter, we anticipated rates for CAT property would decline 10% to 20%. With the availability of capital rates during the quarter declined a bit faster and were down 10% to 25%, and we saw outliers based on the quality of construction, claims experience and new versus renewal business.

轉向 E&S 房地產市場。進入第一季度，我們預計 CAT 房地產的利率將下降 10% 至 20%。本季資本利率的可用性下降得更快，下降了 10% 至 25%，我們看到了基於建築品質、索賠經驗和新業務與續保業務的異常值。

In some cases, rates were down in excess of 25%. With the decline in rates, some buyers chose to increase their limits or modify deductibles while others realize the savings. These savings also enabled some companies to increase their limits on other lines of coverage.

在某些情況下，利率下降超過25%。隨著利率下降，一些買家選擇提高限額或修改免賠額，而其他人則意識到節省了開支。這些節省也使得一些公司能夠提高其他保險範圍的限額。

As we've mentioned in the past, buyers will manage their overall insurance spend and focus on the combination of rates, limits and deductibles. On the M&A front, we had another good quarter and acquired 13 great companies with $36 million of annual revenue. From an overall market perspective, competition for high-quality businesses remain.

正如我們過去提到的，買家將管理他們的整體保險支出，並專注於費率、限額和免賠額的組合。在併購方面，我們又度過了一個良好的季度，收購了 13 家優秀公司，年收入達 3,600 萬美元。從整體市場來看，優質業務的競爭仍然存在。

Let's go to slide 6 and transition to the performance of our three segments. Retail delivered 4.1% organic growth, which was in line with our expectations and was driven by good performance in all lines of business. As a reminder, we expected the first quarter to be lower than the others this year due to the shifting of renewal dates and timing of certain nonrecurring businesses.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 6，並過渡到我們三個部分的表現。零售業實現了 4.1% 的有機成長，符合我們的預期，這得益於所有業務線的良好表現。提醒一下，由於某些非經常性業務的續約日期和時間的變化，我們預計今年第一季的業績將低於其他季度。

Programs delivered another good quarter with organic growth of 13.6%. This performance was driven by a number of our Programs with good new business, retention and exposure unit expansion as well as claims revenue associated with the '24 hurricanes.

專案又一個季度表現良好，有機成長率達到 13.6%。這一業績是由我們的一系列計劃推動的，這些計劃包括良好的新業務、保留和曝光單位擴張以及與 24 年颶風相關的索賠收入。

Our CAT Programs, our CAT Property Programs grew for the quarter slightly even with the impact from rate decreases. Wholesale brokerage had a strong quarter with organic revenue growth of 6.7%. This performance was driven by growth across all lines through a combination of net new business and exposure unit increases with the growth partially offset by the continued downward pressure on open brokerage CAT property rates.

即使受到利率下降的影響，我們的 CAT 計劃、CAT 財產計劃在本季度仍略有增長。批發經紀業務本季表現強勁，有機收入成長 6.7%。這一業績是由所有業務線的成長推動的，這得益於淨新業務和風險敞口單位的增加，但這一增長被開放經紀 CAT 房地產利率的持續下行壓力部分抵消。

Now, I'll turn it over to Andy to give more details regarding our financial results.

現在，我將把時間交給安迪，讓他提供有關我們財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Powell. Good morning, everybody. I'm going to review our financial results in additional detail.

謝謝，鮑威爾。大家早安。我將更詳細地回顧我們的財務結果。

When we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes or diluted net income per share, we're referring to those measures on an adjusted basis. The reconciliations of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday.

當我們提到 EBITDAC、EBITDAC 利潤率、所得稅前收入或每股稀釋淨收入時，我們指的是調整後的指標。我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳可以在本簡報的附錄或我們昨天發布的新聞稿中找到。

We're over on slide 7. We delivered total revenues of $1.404 billion, growing 11.6% as compared to the first quarter of 2024. Income before income taxes increased by 17.4% and EBITDAC grew by 14.8%. Our EBITDAC margin was 38.1%, expanding by 110 basis points over the first quarter of the prior year.

我們已經看過第 7 張投影片了。我們的總營收為 14.04 億美元，與 2024 年第一季相比成長 11.6%。所得稅前收入成長17.4%，EBITDAC成長14.8%。我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 38.1%，比去年同期第一季擴大了 110 個基點。

The higher growth in income before income taxes was due to lower interest expense associated with debt repayments. Our effective tax rate for the quarter increased slightly to 21.8% versus 19.5% in the first quarter of the prior year. The increased tax rate was driven by having less benefit associated with vesting of restricted stock awards as compared to the first quarter of last year.

所得稅前收入成長較高是由於債務償還相關的利息支出較低。本季我們的有效稅率略微上升至 21.8%，而去年同期為 19.5%。稅率提高的原因是與去年第一季相比，限制性股票獎勵歸屬相關的收益減少。

As a reminder, most of our restricted shares vest in the first quarter, so we can have variations in our quarterly tax rate depending on the number of shares that vest and the change in share price. Diluted net income per share increased 13.2% to $1.29.

提醒一下，我們的大部分限制性股票在第一季歸屬，因此我們的季度稅率可能會根據歸屬股票數量和股價變化而變化。每股攤薄淨收益成長 13.2% 至 1.29 美元。

Our weighted average shares outstanding increased slightly compared to last year, and we continue to prioritize paying down our floating rate debt as this has a higher impact on the growth of earnings per share. Lastly, our dividends paid per share increased by 15.4% as compared to the first quarter of 2024. Overall, we are very pleased with the performance for the first quarter.

我們的加權平均流通股數與去年相比略有增加，我們繼續優先償還浮動利率債務，因為這對每股盈餘的成長有更大的影響。最後，我們每股支付的股息與 2024 年第一季相比增加了 15.4%。整體而言，我們對第一季的表現非常滿意。

We're going to move over to Slide 8. The Retail segment grew total revenues 12.5% with organic growth of 4.1%. The difference between total revenues and organic revenue were driven substantially by acquisition activity over the past year. Our EBITDAC margin expanded by 120 basis points to 37.3% due to managing our expenses and the positive impact of the seasonality of revenue and profit for the Quintes acquisition, both were partially offset by higher noncash stock-based compensation.

我們將轉到投影片 8。零售部門總收入成長 12.5%，其中有機成長 4.1%。總收入和有機收入之間的差異主要是由於過去一年的收購活動所造成的。由於管理我們的費用以及 Quintes 收購的收入和利潤的季節性的積極影響，我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 120 個基點，達到 37.3%，但這兩者都被更高的非現金股票薪酬部分抵消。

As we mentioned previously, approximately 60% of the revenues for Quintes are recognized in the first quarter. Therefore, we have higher margins in the first quarter and lower margins than the others. This is very similar to the profile for employee benefits in the United States. From a full-year perspective, we continue to anticipate Quintes to perform within the revenue and EBITDAC ranges that we previously communicated.

正如我們之前提到的，Quintes 約 60% 的營收是在第一季實現的。因此，我們第一季的利潤率較高，而其他公司的利潤率較低。這與美國員工福利狀況非常相似。從全年角度來看，我們仍然預計 Quintes 的收入和 EBITDAC 業績將達到我們先前預期的水平。

We're on slide 9. Programs had another strong quarter with total revenues increasing 10.1% and organic growth of 13.6%. In comparison to prior year, our profit sharing contingent commissions decreased about $6 million due to positive adjustments recorded in Q1 of '24. Lastly, we recognized approximately $12 million of hurricane claims processing revenue, which is in line with our expectations. Our EBITDAC margin expanded by 220 basis points to 44.5%, primarily driven by strong organic revenue growth and managing our expenses.

我們現在看到第 9 張投影片。專案又度過了一個強勁的季度，總收入成長了 10.1%，有機成長了 13.6%。與前一年相比，由於 24 年第一季記錄的正向調整，我們的利潤分享或有佣金減少了約 600 萬美元。最後，我們確認了約 1200 萬美元的颶風索賠處理收入，這符合我們的預期。我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 220 個基點，達到 44.5%，這主要得益於強勁的有機收入成長和管理費用。

We're moving over to slide 10. Our Wholesale Brokerage segment had another strong quarter with total revenues increasing 12% and organic growth of 6.7%. The incremental expansion in total revenues in excess of organic was driven by acquisitions completed in the last 12 months and higher contingent commissions.

我們轉到第 10 張投影片。我們的批發經紀部門又度過了一個強勁的季度，總收入成長了 12%，有機成長了 6.7%。總收入超過有機成長的增量擴張是由過去 12 個月完成的收購和更高的或有佣金推動的。

Our EBITDAC margin decreased by 30 basis points to 32.1% due to higher noncash stock-based compensation and the impact of foreign exchange. Isolating these changes, the underlying margin increase year-over-year due to managing our expenses and higher profit sharing contingent commissions.

由於非現金股票薪酬增加和外匯影響，我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率下降了 30 個基點，至 32.1%。撇開這些變化不談，由於管理我們的費用和更高的利潤分享或有佣金，基礎利潤率同比增長。

Lastly, from a cash perspective, we generated approximately $215 million of cash flow from operations, which was an increase of $200 million over the first quarter of 2024. This improvement was due to incremental taxes of approximately $120 million paid in the first quarter of 2024, which were deferred from 2023.

最後，從現金角度來看，我們從營運中產生了約 2.15 億美元的現金流，比 2024 年第一季增加了 2 億美元。這項改善是由於 2024 年第一季支付了約 1.2 億美元的增量稅，這些稅款從 2023 年推遲。

In addition, we continue to manage our working capital and expand our margins during the quarter. As previously noted, we deferred the payment of approximately $90 million of federal income taxes for the third and fourth quarters of '24 related to IRS tax relief associated with the prior year hurricanes. These taxes will be paid in the second quarter of this year and will impact our cash flow conversion.

此外，我們在本季繼續管理我們的營運資金並擴大我們的利潤率。如前所述，由於去年颶風帶來的國稅局稅收減免，我們推遲了 24 年第三季和第四季約 9,000 萬美元的聯邦所得稅的支付。這些稅款將在今年第二季繳納，並將影響我們的現金流轉換。

With that, let me turn it back over to Powell for closing comments.

最後，請允許我將發言權交還給鮑威爾，請他發表最後評論。

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we believe the main driver of expansion over the coming quarters will be the outcome of inflation, tariffs and changes in interest rates. Leaders, as you know, can generally deal with most changes. But until there's a resolution regarding the extent and breadth of tariffs and inflation, companies will more than likely have a cautious bias.

謝謝，安迪。很棒的報告。從經濟角度來看，我們認為未來幾季擴張的主要驅動力將是通貨膨脹、關稅和利率變化的結果。如你所知，領導者通常能夠應對大多數變化。但在關稅和通膨的範圍和廣度解決之前，企業很可能會持謹慎態度。

This does not mean that we think leaders have a negative outlook. Rather, they may change the level of investment over the coming quarters with some quarters higher or lower than prior quarters. We continue to believe there's a positive backdrop for economic expansion, and growth is moderating back to more traditional levels.

這並不意味著我們認為領導者持有負面的看法。相反，他們可能會改變未來幾季的投資水平，有些季度的投資水平會高於或低於前幾季。我們仍然相信經濟擴張的背景是正面的，而且成長正在回落至更傳統的水平。

From a pricing standpoint, other than CAT property, we do not expect any material changes in rates for admitted and non-admitted lines. For CAT property, we believe rates will continue to decrease in the second quarter and could be down in the range of 10% to 30% due to the availability of capital. One of the topics that still needs to be resolved is the impact of the wildfires on the standard market for property coverage in California.

從定價的角度來看，除了 CAT 財產之外，我們預計承認和非承認線路的費率不會發生任何重大變化。對於 CAT 房地產，我們認為利率將在第二季度繼續下降，並且由於資本的可用性，利率可能下降 10% 至 30%。仍需解決的問題之一是野火對加州標準財產保險市場的影響。

On the M&A front, we continue to feel good. We have a strong pipeline, both domestically and internationally and are building relationships with many firms. As we've spoken about, cultural alignment is the most critical factor to the success of acquisitions at Brown & Brown.

在併購方面，我們繼續感覺良好。我們在國內和國際上都擁有強大的管道，並且正在與許多公司建立關係。正如我們所說，文化協調是 Brown & Brown 收購成功的最重要因素。

We have a strong balance sheet, outstanding cash flow conversion and access to additional capital when we need it. We're in a great position as a company. Our team continues to execute at a high level. Each of our divisions are performing well and have good momentum heading into the second quarter.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表、出色的現金流轉換能力以及在需要時獲得額外資本的管道。作為一家公司，我們處於非常有利的地位。我們的團隊繼續保持高水準的執行力。我們每個部門的表現都很好，並且在第二季度保持良好的勢頭。

There will probably be some ups and downs in the economic outlook, but with our broad diversification across geographies, customer size, lines of coverage and capabilities, we're well positioned to capture the opportunities that are on the horizon. As we've said before, we are a solutions provider and during times of volatility being a great partner for our customers is critical to helping them manage uncertainty. We believe the second quarter will be a good one for the Brown & Brown team.

經濟前景可能會有一些起伏，但憑藉我們在地理、客戶規模、覆蓋範圍和能力方面的廣泛多元化，我們完全有能力抓住即將出現的機會。正如我們之前所說，我們是一家解決方案提供商，在動盪時期成為客戶的優秀合作夥伴對於幫助他們應對不確定性至關重要。我們相信第二季度對 Brown & Brown 團隊來說將會是個好季度。

With that, let's turn it back to Kevin and open it up for Q&A.

接下來，讓我們把話題轉回給凱文，並開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Andy, the Quintes impact on the retail margin and this timing shift on organic also in Retail, any specific numbers you might be able to share with us about what the effect was in the first quarter and then kind of what that means for the balance of the year?

安迪，Quintes 對零售利潤率的影響以及零售業有機增長的時間轉變，您可以與我們分享任何具體的數字，關於第一季度的影響以及這對今年的餘額意味著什麼？

Mark, if you if you utilize the guidance that we provided before on Quintes, about 60% of those revenues came in the first quarter. So again, think about the margin again has a pretty similar profile of what employee benefits does in the first quarter. So it's just naturally going to be higher. So that will serve as a bit of a drag in the out quarters for retail. But on a full-year basis, it will work out. It should be right in line with where we were thinking originally on the Quintes acquisition that's in there.

馬克，如果你利用我們之前為 Quintes 提供的指導，你會發現大約 60% 的收入來自第一季。因此，再想想利潤率與第一季員工福利的狀況非常相似。所以它自然會更高。因此，這將對零售業的外部季度造成一定拖累。但從全年來看，這是可行的。這應該與我們最初對 Quintes 收購的想法完全一致。

And then the other piece you had asked about was just kind of the shifting in renewals and some of the onetime business. As we mentioned before, we anticipated that the first quarter would be about 1% below the other quarters. The first quarter for Retail was pretty much right on exactly what we thought it was going to be.

然後，您詢問的另一部分是續約和一些一次性業務的轉變。正如我們之前提到的，我們預計第一季的成長率將比其他季度低約 1%。零售業第一季的表現基本上符合我們的預期。

So we continue to have good confidence in the out quarters for the year, kind of tied back to the comments that we made earlier about just economic backdrop and where buyers are right now. So we feel really good about the business.

因此，我們繼續對今年的外部季度充滿信心，這與我們先前對經濟背景和買家現狀的評論有關。因此我們對這項業務感到非常滿意。

Very good. And then, what do you anticipate for earned premium in the captives this year?

非常好。那麼，您對今年自保公司賺取的保費有何預期？

It will probably be up a little bit over last year on it, Mark. The piece is, I think you picked up on it in your research notes, and we talked about this in a couple of previous calls, is we're writing up to a specific amount of premium and that's our way of capitating the risk profile inside of them. And we pretty much hit that in the first quarter. We've been kind of climbing that over the past few years.

馬克，這個數字可能比去年有所上漲。我認為您在研究筆記中已經提到了這一點，我們在之前的幾次電話會議中也討論過這個問題，我們正在製定特定數額的保費，這是我們在其中衡量風險狀況的方式。我們在第一季就基本實現了這個目標。過去幾年我們一直在努力實現這一目標。

So we would not anticipate much incremental organic growth in the following quarters in the captives. Now that might move around a little bit dependent upon what happens with CAT property pricing back and forth. But wouldn't anticipate anything material plus or minus versus last year, second through the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計在接下來的幾個季度中，自保公司不會出現太多的有機成長。現在，這可能會有所波動，取決於 CAT 房地產定價的波動情況。但預計第二季至第四季與去年同期相比不會有任何實質的增減。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Thanks for all the color on kind of property rates and especially CAT exposed, and there's plenty of capacity there. I guess, just is it -- it looks like if we try to dissect some of the programs, organic growth, there does seem to be a downwards impact, which could be coming from CAT property pricing being down? Is it as we think about the rest of the year or just is it fair to kind of put in a bit of headwind from downwards property pricing, especially I think Brown is a bit of overweight Florida versus peers?

感謝您提供有關各種房產利率的詳細信息，尤其是 CAT 的披露，那裡有足夠的容量。我想，如果我們嘗試剖析一些計劃、有機成長，就會發現確實存在下行影響，這可能是由於 CAT 房地產價格下跌造成的？就像我們考慮今年剩餘時間的情況一樣，還是僅僅因為房地產價格下跌而承受一點阻力是公平的，尤其是我認為布朗相對於其他地區來說對佛羅裡達州的持股比例有點過高？

Mike, it's Andy here. Let's see if we can kind of put this into a few buckets because we wouldn't want anybody to think that the downward trend is all associated with CAT property. That would not be a good or a proper conclusion. Remember the things that we've talked about over kind of the past year that's helped fuel the growth in Programs. We've talked about our lender-placed business has been performing really well with winning new business as well as we've had customers acquiring portfolios. And we've had just -- we've had outstanding growth over the past few years, still expecting good growth this year, but not probably at the same level.

麥克，我是安迪。讓我們看看是否可以將其歸類為幾個類別，因為我們不希望任何人認為下降趨勢都與 CAT 屬性有關。這不是一個好的或恰當的結論。回想一下我們在過去一年中討論過的那些有助於推動專案成長的事情。我們已經談到，我們的貸款業務表現非常出色，贏得了新業務，我們的客戶也獲得了投資組合。過去幾年我們取得了顯著的成長，今年我們仍然有望實現良好的成長，但可能不會達到相同的水平。

Mark asked earlier about the captives, and so I think we've mentioned there, again, that has helped fuel organic growth that will start to level itself out in '25 for the business. And then CAT property is a component. It did grow during the quarter for us, not at the same levels as we've seen over the past few years, but we did still have good growth in there through the submission and everything that we've received in the business. And then the other piece to keep in mind in the back end of the year is, we're not sure what's going to happen with the hurricane season.

馬克之前問過關於俘虜的問題，所以我認為我們已經提到過，這有助於推動有機增長，並將在 25 年開始使業務趨於平穩。然後 CAT 屬性是一個元件。我們在本季度確實實現了成長，雖然沒有達到過去幾年的水平，但透過提交和業務中獲得的一切，我們仍然實現了良好的成長。今年年底需要記住的另一件事是，我們不確定颶風季節會發生什麼。

So remember we had a significant amount of claims revenue in the fourth quarter. We do not budget for kind of known storms. We just use kind of a 10-year average. So depending upon what happens, and if it's a relatively calm season in the back end of the year, I think it's probably realistically at least we would think realistic that the organic growth in the fourth quarter Programs could be around 0 because of the very tough comp with all the flood claim revenue. Okay.

所以請記住，我們在第四季度有大量的索賠收入。我們沒有為已知的風暴做預算。我們只是使用 10 年的平均值。因此，根據發生的情況，如果今年年底是一個相對平靜的季節，我認為這可能是現實的，至少我們認為第四季度計劃的有機增長可能在 0 左右，因為與所有洪水索賠收入的競爭非常激烈。好的。

Okay. Thanks, Andy, for unpacking that. My follow-up would be on probably the Retail segment. If I think about the commentary on employee benefits and some upwards pressure on inflation there. Is that -- did that come through in the Retail organic this quarter? And maybe you can size up how much seasonality there is, I think, in 1Q versus the rest of the year in terms of mix of benefits being higher, I believe, in 1Q?

好的。謝謝安迪解答了這個問題。我的後續行動可能集中在零售領域。如果我考慮有關員工福利的評論以及那裡的通貨膨脹的上行壓力。這是本季零售有機成長的結果嗎？也許您可以評估第一季與一年中其他時間相比的季節性，因為我認為第一季的綜合效益會更高？

So remember, that's a revenue recognition issue, Mike. And so it's sort of front-loaded that Andy sort of referred to. So when I say that, that makes the assumption if your thought process that all of those accounts are either on commission, not a per head per month or a fee.

所以請記住，這是一個收入確認問題，麥克。這就是安迪提到的前置內容。因此，當我這麼說時，就假設如果你的思考過程是所有這些帳戶都是按佣金收取的，而不是按人頭每月或按費用收取的。

So most of our business is on commission, but I just want to clarify that, that in some of the smaller business or fully insured, it's going to be -- there's going to be on a per head per month that we get paid. And on our larger business, many times, those are on fees.

因此，我們的大部分業務都是靠佣金，但我只想澄清一下，在一些規模較小的企業或完全投保的企業中，我們將按月按人頭支付報酬。而對於我們較大的業務來說，很多時候這些都是費用。

As it relates to the organic growth in Retail, we were very pleased with the organic growth in Retail, particularly in light of what we said at the end of Q4 and in our remarks about some shifting of some things and some nonrecurring revenue. So -- and we anticipate it to be a little bit higher later in the year. And so we feel good about it and continue to feel good about it.

就零售業的有機成長而言，我們對零售業的有機成長感到非常滿意，特別是考慮到我們在第四季末以及關於某些事物的某些轉變和一些非經常性收入的評論。所以——我們預計今年稍後這一數字會略高一些。因此我們對此感覺良好，並且會繼續保持這種感覺。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Powell, in your closing comments, you talked about growth returning to a more normal level. And I'm reminded of a comment you used to make about the impact or weighting of economic growth versus the impact from rate increases. And I think in the last couple of years, you seem to -- and I don't want to put words in your mouth, but you seem to indicate that you're getting a little bit heavier weighting from rate increases versus economic versus the traditional averages.

鮑威爾，在您的結束語中，您談到了經濟成長恢復到更正常的水平。我記得您曾經就經濟成長的影響或權重與利率上調的影響發表過評論。我認為在過去的幾年裡，你似乎——我不想替你說話，但你似乎表示，與經濟和傳統平均水平相比，利率上調對你的影響更大了。

Maybe you can update us because in the slide presentation, there's a couple of slides there where you talk about property CAT being down affecting -- having an offset on organic. And you talk about the other rate environment. So just can you provide us some updated perspective on how you're thinking about that?

也許您可以向我們更新情況，因為在幻燈片演示中，有幾張幻燈片談到了財產 CAT 下降的影響 - 對有機產生了抵消。您還談到了其他利率環境。那麼，您能否向我們提供一些關於您對此的看法的最新觀點？

Sure. So first of all, what Greg is referring to is historically, I would say, that our business is 2/3 to 3 quarters exposure unit and the remaining would be rate. That's how I've always sort of said that. And we've alluded to the fact that with the transition, particularly in CAT property, but it could be in some heavy casualty lines into unusual umbrellas and other things. It has gone up or had a little bit higher impact on rate in the growth. So that's the first thing.

當然。首先，格雷格所指的從歷史上看，我想說，我們的業務是 2/3 到 3/4 的風險敞口單位，其餘的是利率。我一直都是這麼講的。我們已經提到過，隨著轉型，特別是在 CAT 財產方面，但它可能會在一些重大傷亡線中轉向不尋常的雨傘和其他東西。它對成長率的影響有所上升或略有增加。這是第一件事。

The second thing that I'd like to sort of clarify for everybody is I find it very interesting how you all are sort of surprised by the rate decreases in CAT property. I would have said I thought this was going to happen a year ago. And so CAT property historically goes up faster than you anticipate, and it comes down faster than you anticipate. And so it's all about the availability of limits out there, whether it be through a traditional insurance company or through an MGA or some combination thereof.

我想向大家澄清的第二件事是，我發現大家對 CAT 財產利率下降感到驚訝，這很有趣。我本來以為一年前就會發生這種事。因此，從歷史上看，CAT 財產的上漲速度比您預期的要快，而下跌速度也比您預期的要快。因此，一切都取決於可用的限額，無論是透過傳統保險公司還是透過 MGA 或兩者的某種組合。

So I think from a standpoint of our Retail business, but it affects the whole business, we are writing a lot of new business, Greg. And our goal is to get the best program, that's the most competitive program with the most comprehensive price -- comprehensive coverage for our customers. And so today, I do believe that what -- if you believe what I just said, which I do, is that it would go back more closer to the 2/3, 1/3 or 3 quarters, 1 quarter, but I usually use 2/3, 1/3.

所以我認為從我們的零售業務的角度來看，但它影響整個業務，我們正在進行很多新業務，格雷格。我們的目標是獲得最好的計劃，即最具競爭力的計劃、最全面的價格——為我們的客戶提供全面的覆蓋。所以今天，我確實相信——如果你相信我剛才說的，我確實相信，它會更接近 2/3、1/3 或 3/4、1/4，但我通常使用 2/3、1/3。

And again, as I said, I believe that if you talk to people, just the person on the street, they have a little bit more negative view of the economy than people that run and own businesses. I believe that depending on the industry that you're in, depending on your supply chain, some of these other things, your view is slightly different and maybe more moderated. So we feel good about Retail. And as I said, that's a long-winded answer on 2/3, 1/3.

而且，正如我所說，我相信，如果你與人們交談，僅僅是與街上的人交談，他們對經濟的看法會比經營和擁有企業的人更加負面。我相信，根據你所在的行業、你的供應鏈以及其他一些因素，你的觀點會略有不同，而且可能會更加溫和。因此我們對零售業充滿信心。正如我所說，這是關於 2/3、1/3 的冗長答案。

Greg, the other thing to keep in mind, and we've mentioned this a bunch over the past few years is our diversification. And again, if you go way back in history, yes, we were probably more weighted to Florida and potential CAT property. But with the industries that we serve, the lines of coverage, geographies across the business. The CAT property can have a movement maybe on offices in certain locations. But the ability to have a material impact on our numbers across the board is much less than what it was years ago. And that's all been done with kind of purpose for the strategy on how we diversify the organization.

格雷格，另一件需要記住的事情，我們在過去幾年中多次提到過，那就是我們的多樣化。再說了，如果回顧歷史，是的，我們可能更重視佛羅裡達州和潛在的 CAT 財產。但就我們所服務的行業、業務覆蓋範圍和地理而言。CAT 財產可能會在某些地點的辦公室發生變動。但對我們的整體數字產生實質影響的能力比幾年前小得多。而這一切都是為了實現我們組織多元化策略的目的。

Great. The moderators instruction said one question, but everyone seems to be asking a follow-up. So I just slip in my follow-up, which would be, can you talk about the outlook for the flood business, the federal government -- the federal government program and FEMA, it's unclear. It sits inside of FEMA. So it's unclear what's going to happen with the flood program. And I'm just curious about your perspectives given all the changing dynamics happening in Washington, D.C.

偉大的。主持人指示說了一個問題，但每個人似乎都在問後續問題。因此，我只是順便問一下，您能否談談洪水業務的前景，聯邦政府 - 聯邦政府計劃和聯邦緊急事務管理署，目前還不清楚。它位於聯邦緊急事務管理署 (FEMA) 內部。因此，目前還不清楚洪水防治計畫將會如何進行。鑑於華盛頓特區正在發生的所有變化，我很好奇您的觀點。

So Greg, let's look at historical perspective of flood and then put that kind of an overlay the current environment. So as you probably know, the flood program has not been reauthorized for an extended period of time, meaning something like a 5-year traditional reauthorization or something in a long time. So basically, they have been reauthorizing for shorter periods of time because they can't get the full reauthorization through.

那麼，格雷格，讓我們從歷史的角度來看洪水，然後將其與當前的環境疊加。因此，您可能知道，洪水計劃已經很長時間沒有重新授權了，這意味著像 5 年的傳統重新授權或很長一段時間內的重新授權。因此基本上，他們一直在縮短重新授權的時間，因為他們無法獲得完整的重新授權。

And so I use that as a backdrop to say this. We believe that the flood program is a critical program in the United States for homeowners. And I believe the government and everything that we hear would lead us to feel that way. That said, I think the likelihood of having a longer-term reauthorization in the next year to several years is probably lower because it just seems to be getting kicked down -- kick the can down the road. And that's what our team says, and we're very close to the people involved in Washington. But as you know, we write about 1/3 of all the right-run flood premiums in the United States. And so that's kind of how we feel about it.

因此我以此為背景來講述這一點。我們認為，洪水計畫對美國的房主來說是一項至關重要的計畫。我相信政府和我們所聽到的一切都會讓我們有這種感覺。話雖如此，我認為在未來一兩年到幾年內進行長期重新授權的可能性可能較低，因為這似乎只是被拖延了——把問題拖到以後解決。這就是我們團隊所說的，我們與華盛頓的相關人士關係非常密切。但如您所知，我們承擔了美國所有右行洪水保險費的約 1/3。這就是我們對此的感受。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬希·尚克（Josh Shanker）。

I do want to focus on CAT, and I just have a more general question about the state of Florida. It seems like after 837, a lot of the lawyers lost a lot of revenue and a lot of different kinds of risk. Is the cost of risk going down in the state of Florida broadly? And what impact should we have on Florida pricing broadly compared to the national economy over the next couple of years? Should Florida growth be lower than the rest of the country?

我確實想關注 CAT，我只是對佛羅裡達州有一個更一般性的問題。似乎在 837 之後，許多律師損失了許多收入，也承擔了許多不同類型的風險。佛羅裡達州的風險成本是否普遍下降？未來幾年，與全國經濟相比，我們應該對佛羅裡達州的定價產生什麼影響？佛羅裡達州的成長率是否應該低於全國其他地區？

Okay. So interesting question, Josh. First of all, is the cost of risk going down in the state of Florida. And I would -- I have to temper this statement. If you are on CAT property and it went really high, your cost of risk is coming down, okay? I'm talking about the rate on that. However, the overall cost of risk in the sense that what a person is paying to ensure the similar property, i.e., let's say, their home, is actually going up still because you have increased cost of construction.

好的。這個問題很有趣，喬希。首先，佛羅裡達州的風險成本正在下降。我必須緩和一下這種說法。如果您持有 CAT 財產，且風險成本確實很高，那麼您的風險成本就會下降，好嗎？我正在談論這個比率。然而，從某種意義上說，一個人為確保類似財產（即他們的家）而支付的費用來看，整體風險成本實際上仍在上升，因為建築成本增加了。

So you have insurance to value and insurance -- increased cost of construction issues. So somebody's home might have been, let's say, on a replacement cost at, I'll make this up, $200 a square foot. And in the event that there is a loss, it will cost them $300 a square foot to replace that house in like kind or quality. So that's number one.

因此，您需要投保價值保險和保險—以增加建築成本。因此，某人的房屋重置成本可能是，我假設是，每平方英尺 200 美元。一旦發生損失，他們需要花費每平方英尺 300 美元來更換同類或品質的房子。這是第一點。

Number two, if you think about it, particularly in certain areas of the state is more pronounced. But if you go to Southeast Florida, there are a number of uninsured motorists on the highways. And so the cost of liability insurance and physical damage for the auto, whether it's personal or commercial, continues to go up, and it is highlighted by these very large awards that the plaintiffs' bar usually highlights, but that's -- there are a lot of fairly large awards. And so you have to keep that in mind.

第二，如果你仔細想想，你會發現特別是在該州的某些地區，這種情況更加明顯。但如果你去佛羅裡達州東南部，你會發現高速公路上有很多沒有保險的駕駛。因此，無論是個人還是商業車輛的責任保險和物理損壞費用都在持續上漲，原告律師通常會強調這些非常大的賠償金額，但那是——有很多相當大的賠償金額。所以你必須記住這一點。

As it relates to growth in the state of Florida, what's happening, in my opinion, is this. Florida used to be a very inexpensive place to live relatively speaking, other than barring South Florida, meaning Southwest and Southeast Florida. Today, there has been an escalation in home prices and land values.

就佛羅裡達州的發展而言，我認為正在發生的事情是這樣的。相對而言，佛羅裡達州（除南佛羅裡達州，即西南佛羅裡達州和東南佛羅裡達州）曾經是一個生活成本非常低的地方。如今，房價和地價不斷上漲。

So it's not as inexpensive as it once was. And so it's a transitionary market, and there are more and more people that are coming here that are fleeing high tax states, like the state that you have in, and they're coming here, and they think it's wonderful. So we believe that there is going to be continued growth in the economy in Florida in the near, intermediate and long term.

因此它不再像以前那麼便宜了。所以這是一個過渡市場，越來越多的人逃離高稅收的州（例如你們所在的州）來到這裡，他們認為這裡很棒。因此，我們相信佛羅裡達州的經濟在近期、中期和長期內將持續成長。

And what about the price of liability, court costs, legal fees on the casualty side of the coin. Is there any change going on there?

那麼，責任險的價格、訴訟費用、意外保險的法律費用又是多少呢？那裡正在發生什麼變化嗎？

Yes. So the answer to the question is, I think -- if -- we'll make it very simple, I think that even with the tort reform that has occurred and that seems to point in the right direction that is overshadowed by the size and frequency of larger settlements. And so it's a very difficult push-pull environment. And I would say that there's more push on rates up than pull on rates down due to reform.

是的。所以，我認為，這個問題的答案是——如果——我們將把它變得非常簡單，我認為，即使已經進行了侵權法改革，而且這似乎指向了正確的方向，但卻被更大規模和解的規模和頻率所掩蓋。所以這是一個非常困難的推拉環境。我想說的是，改革對利率上升的推動作用大於利率下降的拉動作用。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲（Meyer Shields），KBW。

I was hoping that you could clarify. I think, Andy, you mentioned that there's -- that without flood revenues in the fourth quarter, organic would be 0. Is that if there are no flood revenues? Or is that at the 10-year average?

我希望你能澄清一下。安迪，我想你提到過——如果沒有第四季度的洪水收入，有機收入將為 0。如果沒有洪澇稅收的話會怎麼樣？還是這是 10 年的平均值？

No. So let's see -- again, we'll reclarify on that one is if there is minimal flood claim revenue in the fourth quarter, then the organic is probably closer to 0.

不。所以讓我們看看——再次，我們將重新澄清這一點，如果第四季度的洪水索賠收入很少，那麼有機收入可能接近 0。

Okay. But that's worse than what you're budgeting using the average?

好的。但這比你根據平均值製定的預算更糟嗎？

That is -- yes, if you pull it down on the average, it will be too far off there if you use a 10-year average.

也就是說——是的，如果你將其拉低到平均值，那麼與使用 10 年平均值相比，差距就太大了。

Okay. That's very helpful. The second question with regard to CAT property, I guess the key question I'm hearing a lot is, are we seeing signs of any standard insurers or admitted insurers coming back in sort of cutting out the wholesale brokerage entirely for a CAT property?

好的。這非常有幫助。關於 CAT 財產的第二個問題，我想我經常聽到的關鍵問題是，我們是否看到任何標準保險公司或認可保險公司回歸的跡象，以完全取消 CAT 財產的批發經紀業務？

Well, generally speaking, the answer is no. And so here's what I would -- I'll give you an example. If you have a property in Miami, and if it's -- I'm going to flip it around, Meyer, so you can see this example. If it's in a standard market, and the rate is, let's say $0.60, I just made that up. And the standard market wants a 10% increase, a 5% to 10% increase on that property, the lowest rate they might get on that same property in the E&S market is $1.

嗯，一般來說，答案是否定的。所以這就是我要舉的例子。如果你在邁阿密有一處房產，而且──我要把它翻過來，邁耶，這樣你就可以看到這個例子。如果是在標準市場，匯率是 0.60 美元，我就編造了這個匯率。標準市場希望該房產的價格上漲 10%，即 5% 到 10%，那麼在 E&S 市場上，同一房產可能獲得的最低利率是 1 美元。

Having said that, very few standard markets would write it -- they've grandfathered that property in. So what I'm saying is if you have a -- if it's at $1 and they don't want to write it in the standard market, they're not coming back in at a $1. So they have -- there are some old grandfathered standard market business that permeates in Southeast Florida, in particular, that's not exclusively, it could be other places. But the answer is no, we're not seeing that right yet.

話雖如此，但很少有標準市場會寫它——他們已經將該財產保留了下來。所以我的意思是，如果你有一個——如果它的價格是 1 美元，而他們不想在標準市場上寫它，他們就不會以 1 美元的價格回來。所以他們有——有一些古老的祖父標準市場業務滲透到佛羅裡達州東南部，特別是，這不是唯一的，也可能是其他地方。但答案是否定的，我們還沒看到這一點。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

This is Charlie on for Andrew. I just have one question, and it was on lender-placed business, which I know you guys touched on a little bit earlier in the call, but -- was there any incremental either benefit or headwind from lender-placed insurance in 1Q '25 within programs. I think previously, you guys may have mentioned that there was going to be like more of a return to a regular seasonal cadence there. But I guess any color would be helpful.

查理代替安德魯上場。我只有一個問題，是關於貸款人配置業務的，我知道你們在電話會議早些時候提到過這個問題，但是 - - 在 2025 年第一季度，貸款人配置保險在計劃中是否帶來了任何增量收益或阻力。我想之前你們可能有提到那裡將會恢復正常的季節節奏。但我想任何顏色都會有幫助。

Charlie, it's Andy here. No, there's no headwinds year-over-year to the business. It just didn't grow at the same pace that it did a year ago. And just we want to make sure we clarify the growth that we're seeing in the business is due to us winning new accounts or customers buying portfolios.

查理，我是安迪。不，業務同比沒有遇到任何阻力。它只是沒有以與一年前相同的速度增長。我們只是想確保我們澄清我們所看到的業務成長是由於我們贏得了新帳戶或客戶購買了投資組合。

The actual lender-placed ratio is not materially changing, which that's always to us, a good indicator to the health of the economy. That means people are still in a good financial position that they're able to pay their insurance. So just want to make sure that we clarify that.

實際的貸款人存款比率並沒有實質變化，這對我們來說始終是經濟健康的一個好指標。這意味著人們的財務狀況仍然良好，有能力支付保險費。因此，我們只是想確保澄清這一點。

Okay. Yes. And then I guess, just on the seasonality there, just no material changes, I guess, it sounds like.

好的。是的。然後我想，就季節性而言，聽起來好像沒有實質的變化。

That one -- that business doesn't really have a seasonality to it, Charlie just because they're -- again, it primarily is placing coverage on homeowners, and that's just kind of throughout the entire year. Where you'll get different seasonality is when we bring on a new account is you'll have a bump of multiple months of revenue through a transition when you got to get letters back out to the homeowners.

那個 — — 那個業務實際上沒有季節性，查理，只是因為他們 — — 再說一次，它主要為房主提供保險，而且這種保險是全年的。當我們引入新帳戶時，您會獲得不同的季節性，透過過渡，您將獲得數月的收入成長，此時您必須將信件寄回給房主。

So that's the one that really causes -- I wouldn't call that seasonality, that's just you're onboarding a new account, you'll pick up an extra 2 or 3 months of revenue. And then when you make a lap, you lose it on comparability, but that's just kind of how the business works in there.

所以這才是真正的原因——我不會稱之為季節性，這只是你開設一個新帳戶，你會獲得額外 2 或 3 個月的收入。然後，當你跑完一圈時，你就失去了可比性，但這就是那裡的商業運作方式。

Brian Meredith, UBS.

瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple here for you. First one, I know there's some legislation actually in Florida trying to turn back some of the reforms that happened. I'm not sure if you got any updates on where that is. And do you think that may reverse the course of kind of the pricing pressure that we're seeing right now?

這裡有一對夫婦等著你。首先，我知道佛羅裡達州實際上有​​一些立法試圖推翻已經實施的一些改革。我不確定您是否知道那裡的情況。您認為這是否會扭轉我們目前看到的價格壓力？

The answer to the question is we know that there is not a lot of interest in the state Senate or in the governor's office to have proposed legislation as written implemented.

問題的答案是，我們知道州參議院或州長辦公室對實施書面提案的立法沒有太多興趣。

Good. That's helpful. And then second question, I was just wondering, MGA business. I'm just curious, right now, it appears that carriers have a lot of demand and appetite for MGA-type business. I'm curious what your outlook is for the MGA business. Do you think that is continuing here for a while? Or do you think maybe we start to see some of that slow at some point from a carrier appetite perspective, particularly with some of the big rate reductions you're seeing in, call it, E&S property and stuff.

好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題，我只是想知道，MGA 業務。我只是好奇，目前看來，營運商對 MGA 類型的業務有很大的需求和興趣。我很好奇您對 MGA 業務的展望。您認為這種情況會持續一段時間嗎？或者您是否認為，從承運人需求的角度來看，我們可能在某個時候開始看到這種放緩，特別是隨著您所看到的一些所謂的 E&S 財產和其他方面的大幅降價。

Yes. So I think let's back up, Brad, and talk about why there is that interest in the MGA business. So I think it's a combination of things. Number one, the carriers believe it's a way for them to get large chunks of premium potentially if someone moves a program to them. So there's an appeal of that in terms of trying to grow their business. That's number one.

是的。所以，布拉德，我想讓我們回頭談談為什麼人們對 MGA 業務如此感興趣。所以我認為這是多種因素的綜合作用。首先，營運商認為，如果有人將某個計劃轉移給他們，他們就有可能獲得大量保費。因此，就嘗試拓展業務而言，這具有吸引力。這是第一點。

Number two, the quality of the underwriting in a number of the MGAs is quite good and so the days, if you go back 15 years ago, the carriers view the underwriting or MGA space as a little bit like the Wild West, and there were cowboys and maybe not as detailed or the data was not as good.

第二，許多 MGA 的承保品質相當不錯，如果回到 15 年前，保險公司會將承保或 MGA 領域視為有點像狂野西部的地方，那裡有牛仔，可能不那麼詳細，或者數據也不那麼好。

And today, the carriers don't support cowboys. They actually cut them off. And so you have to have a system, a process that works. You've got to show good results over time. It's more of a true partnership. So do I think there will be a decreased interest in MGAs from carriers in the near to intermediate term? No, I think it will be the contrary.

如今，運輸商不再支持牛仔。他們確實切斷了這些聯繫。所以你必須要有一個系統、一個有效的流程。你必須隨著時間的推移展現出良好的結果。這更像是一種真正的合作關係。那麼我是否認為在中短期內航空公司對 MGA 的興趣會下降呢？不，我認為事實恰恰相反。

As it relates to pressure on rates depending on the line of business, I think that they will mirror the market and in some instances, be more pronounced in the market. And it just depends because if you've got a casualty program for liability on law enforcement officials, that could have upward pressure versus CAT property versus an automobile program versus contractor program. So it's very program-specific. And as it relates to us, we feel really good about our MGA, MGU business because it's so diversified. And people recognize -- go ahead. sorry, Brad.

由於它與取決於業務線的利率壓力有關，我認為它們將反映市場，並且在某些情況下，在市場上更加明顯。這取決於情況，因為如果你有一個針對執法官員責任的傷亡計劃，那麼與 CAT 財產、汽車計劃或承包商計劃相比，這可能會產生上行壓力。所以它是非常特定於程序的。就我們而言，我們對我們的 MGA、MGU 業務感到非常滿意，因為它非常多樣化。人們認識到了——繼續吧。對不起，布拉德。

No, that was -- keep going, sorry.

不，那是——繼續，抱歉。

No. I mean I just think the carriers recognize quality, and they want to associate with people that can actually bring them quality business and have an appropriate partnership over a long period of time.

不。我的意思是，我認為運營商重視質量，他們希望與能夠真正為他們帶來優質業務並長期保持適當合作關係的人合作。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

My first question is just on the margin outlook. I know last year, you guys -- last quarter, sorry, you guys said you were looking for margins to be roughly flat in '25 versus '24. I was just hoping you can comment where -- how Q1 shook out relative to expectations. I know there were some pushes and pulls with the segments with the Quintes seasonality, et cetera. And -- and what's your current view for your full year margin and how that might have changed over the last 3 months?

我的第一個問題是關於利潤前景的。我知道去年，你們——上個季度，抱歉，你們說希望 25 年的利潤率與 24 年的利潤率大致持平。我只是希望您能評論一下第一季的表現與預期相比如何。我知道在 Quintes 季節性等方面的各個部分之間存在一些推拉關係。並且—您目前對全年利潤率的看法是什麼？以及過去 3 個月利潤率可能發生了什麼樣的變化？

Elyse, it hasn't changed. It's exactly what we described in the Q4 call. It would be a little bit higher in Q1, which was met our expectations, and you have the expense more loaded in Q2, 3 and 4 in Quintes, as an example. But we don't have a modification. And quite honestly, we are very pleased with our margin. And so yes, we feel good about it. And I hope you do, actually.

伊莉絲，它沒有改變。這正是我們在第四季電話會議中所描述的。在第一季度，這個數字會略高一些，這符合我們的預期，而以 Quintes 為例，在第二、第三和第四季度，支出會更多。但我們沒有修改。坦白說，我們對我們的利潤率非常滿意。是的，我們對此感覺很好。事實上，我希望你能這麼做。

Yes. And then my second question is on just Retail, right? You guys had guided to the Q1 being about 1% lower than the full year, which, based on the prepared commentary, it sounds like it was in line with expectations. Obviously, as you pointed out, there's just some uncertainty with tariffs, et cetera, right now. Just based on how you see everything developing, it sounds like you guys still think right, the full year could be around 5%, maybe a little bit above, given what you had highlighted with the Q1. I was hoping you could just expand upon that as well, Powell.

是的。我的第二個問題是關於零售業的，對嗎？你們預計第一季的銷售額將比全年銷售額低約 1%，根據準備好的評論，這聽起來符合預期。顯然，正如您所指出的，目前關稅等方面存在一些不確定性。僅根據您對一切發展的看法，聽起來你們仍然認為是正確的，考慮到您在第一季所強調的情況，全年增長率可能在 5% 左右，甚至可能略高一些。我希望你也能詳細說明這一點，鮑威爾。

Okay, Elyse. So let's go back to we're very consistent at Brown & Brown. You may not like the consistency, but we're consistent, and we say it's a low to mid-single-digit organic growth business. And so we have not changed our position on the growth guidance, even though we really don't give growth guidance, we had to give you that in Q1.

好的，伊莉絲。讓我們回顧一下 Brown & Brown 的一貫作風。您可能不喜歡這種一致性，但我們是一致的，我們認為這是一項低至中等個位數的有機成長業務。因此，我們沒有改變對成長指引的立場，儘管我們實際上並沒有給出成長指引，但我們必須在第一季給出。

We are very pleased with the way retail is performing because of the breadth of our capabilities and our market relationships. And I find it interesting, Elyse, if I may take a moment that there are some people out there that thought 6.5% organic growth was not that good a quarter. And I'm surprised because we think it's a good quarter.

由於我們擁有廣泛的能力和市場關係，我們對零售業的表現感到非常滿意。伊莉絲，我覺得這很有趣，如果我可以花點時間說一下的話，有些人認為 6.5% 的有機成長率並不是一個好的季度。我感到很驚訝，因為我們認為這是一個好的季度。

And if you think about historically, which what people are saying is there is a movement back to more traditional organic growth levels. And as you've seen by the other firms that you cover, it seems to be occurring. I think it's an interesting perspective. And so depending on who you are and in your case, you didn't see it exactly the way we did this quarter, but we feel good not only about Retail, but about Wholesale and Programs and we also feel good about the rest of the year.

如果你從歷史角度思考，你會發現人們所說的趨勢正在回歸到更傳統的有機成長水平。正如您從所報導的其他公司看到的那樣，這種情況似乎正在發生。我認為這是一個有趣的觀點。因此，取決於你是誰以及你的情況，你對本季的看法可能與我們的預期不同，但我們不僅對零售感到滿意，而且對批發和項目也感到滿意，而且對今年剩餘時間也感到滿意。

Yes, if you would -- it's Andy here. If you go back to our prepared comments, the thing that we said inside of there is, we're not seeing the buyers of insurance materially change their level of investments at this stage. It doesn't mean that things can't go positive or negative on that one. But we still feel good with the backdrop right now and continue, honestly, from where we were 3 months ago to now, we're not materially changing our outlook.

是的，如果你願意的話——我是安迪。如果您回顧我們準備好的評論，我們在其中所說的是，我們目前沒有看到保險購買者實質地改變他們的投資水準。這並不意味著事情不會朝著正面或負面的方向發展。但我們仍然對目前的背景感到滿意，老實說，從三個月前到現在，我們並沒有實質地改變我們的觀點。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Just a couple of quick ones on property. I think your non-CAT property pricing description was flat to up 5%. I think that's pretty consistent with 4Q. Do you think is non-CAT property at a pretty good equilibrium. Do you think it stays at this level?

僅簡單談幾個有關財產的問題。我認為您的非 CAT 房產定價描述是持平或上漲 5%。我認為這與第四季度非常一致。您認為非巨災資產處於相當好的均衡狀態嗎？您認為它會保持在這個水平嗎？

I think, Mark, that's hard to tell right now. And the reason I say that is, although there's not as much chaos in that segment right now, that assumes that we have maybe a light hurricane season. If we have an active hurricane season, where there's landfall and significant damage, I do believe that, that definitely impacts standard market pricing.

馬克，我認為現在還很難說。我之所以這麼說，是因為儘管目前該地區沒有太多混亂，但我們認為我們可能正處於一個較弱的颶風季節。如果我們遇到活躍的颶風季節，颶風登陸並造成重大破壞，我相信這肯定會影響標準市場定價。

The other thing is, let's not lose sight of -- there are other areas that are dealing with things that maybe we don't talk as much about, i.e., hail storms and tornadoes in places where deductibles are changing very significantly. And just -- I know it's obvious, but the wildfire exposure and just fires, in general. And so you have all these dynamics that are going on at once. And so the long-winded answer of saying hard to say. I think it's probably pretty good right now, but we are going to wait and see relative to the storms this year, and those are across all segments, wind, hail, tornadoes, fire, et cetera.

另一件事是，我們不要忽視——其他地區正在處理一些我們可能沒有過多談論的事情，例如，在免賠額發生很大變化的地方，冰雹和龍捲風。而且 — — 我知道這很明顯，但總的來說，野火暴露和火災都是如此。因此，所有這些動態都是同時發生的。因此，冗長的回答很難說。我認為現在可能還不錯，但對於今年的風暴，我們還要拭目以待，這些風暴涵蓋了所有領域，包括風、冰雹、龍捲風、火災等等。

Very good. And then on the CAT property, in your experience, you talked about how it runs up and then it runs back down. Would it usually be kind of one and done, you get that down 30% or what have you, and that tends to stabilize? Do you think that's a multi-year process. You get decrease this year and then maybe decreases next year as well. What would your experience say?

非常好。然後關於 CAT 屬性，根據您的經驗，您談到了它如何運行上升然後又下降。通常是不是一次性就能完成，下降 30% 左右，然後趨於穩定？您認為這是一個多年的過程嗎？今年會下降，明年可能還會下降。您的經驗說明了什麼？

So let's back up and say that this particular period of time has been different than in the past. So historically, I would think that it would go up for 1 or 2 years and then come down for 1 or 2 years or a little more, and then it would sort of kind of do its thing. In this case, we went up for an extended period of time, let's say, it was 5 years. And the pricing, as you know, typically is never exactly perfect. So those CAT prices, if you looked at them, actuarially are probably a little higher in some cases than they should be.

因此，讓我們回顧一下，這個特定時期與過去有所不同。因此，從歷史上看，我認為它會上漲 1 到 2 年，然後下降 1 到 2 年或更長時間，然後它會以某種方式發揮作用。在這種情況下，我們的成長時間延長了一段時期，比如說 5 年。而且如你所知，定價通常永遠不會完全完美。因此，如果你看一下這些 CAT 價格，從精算角度來看，在某些情況下它們可能比應有的價格要高一點。

And as a result, there's going to be downward pressure this year. And then the question is, what happens if there's a storm or not. If there is not an active storm season, we will see additional pressure next year. If there is a storm, then that changes that statement.

因此，今年經濟將面臨下行壓力。那麼問題是，如果有暴風雨會發生什麼事。如果沒有活躍的風暴季節，明年我們將面臨更大的壓力。如果發生暴風雨，那麼這說法就會改變。

But I don't believe that it will go down as rapidly for as many years as it has gone up. That is an important distinction because there is some level of discipline. I just don't know where that floor is. And so it's a very interesting time, and it's opportunistic.

但我不相信它會像上漲那樣在這麼多年迅速下降。這是一個重要的區別，因為存在一定程度的紀律。我只是不知道那層樓在哪裡。這是一個非常有趣且充滿機會的時期。

And once again, it depends on the hurricane season, which, by the way, starts in just over a month. We're going to have two more questions if we can.

再次強調，這取決於颶風季節，順便說一下，颶風季節還有一個多月就會開始。如果可以的話，我們還想問兩個問題。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Question I had for you is on this dynamic between some of the large, large end of the market pricing trends we're seeing versus, I'd say, more stable or still increasing the small to medium end of the market. And I was just interested in your perspective on that from your viewpoint, what's driving, I'd say, what's seemingly one of the bigger divergences that we've seen there? And what -- how would you characterize Brown's sort of exposure to those trends over the next couple of years if they persist?

我想問您的問題是，我們看到的一些大型市場定價趨勢與我認為更穩定或仍在成長的中小型市場之間的動態關係。我只是對您對此的看法感興趣，從您的角度來看，是什麼導致了我們所看到的較大分歧之一？如果這種趨勢持續下去，您如何描述布朗在未來幾年內受到的影響？

Okay. So we -- as I like to describe our firm, we are a truly middle and upper middle market business. That is the vast majority. We have a good SME book, and we do have some very large accounts, too. And we're very strategic about how we work with those customers. So Alex, what I think you're referring to is this, let's paint the backdrop. Number one, the most competitive environment on a rate standpoint, per unit typically is in the largest accounts.

好的。因此，正如我喜歡描述我們的公司那樣，我們是一家真正的中高端市場企業。這是絕大多數。我們有一本很好的中小企業帳簿，而且我們也有一些非常大的客戶。我們在與這些客戶的合作上非常有策略。那麼亞歷克斯，我認為你指的是這個，讓我們畫一下背景。首先，從利率角度來看，最具競爭力的環境通常是在最大的帳戶中。

And as a result, the large account space historically has not made much money for the insurance carriers. These are broad generalizations. Conversely, on the lower end, the SME and the middle market has been more profitable because the rates, if you look at the rate of a similar business in the very large account space and one in a smaller unit or smaller business, that rate is going to be a little bit higher. And the performance on those accounts historically has been substantially better. So the carriers write and want to write that very profitable business.

因此，從歷史上看，大額帳戶空間並沒有為保險公司帶來太多利潤。這些都是廣泛的概括。相反，在低端市場，中小企業和中型市場利潤更高，因為如果你比較一下大帳戶領域中類似業務的利率和較小單位或較小業務的利率，你會發現後者的利率會稍微高一些。從歷史上看，這些帳戶的表現要好得多。因此，營運商開始並且希望開展這項利潤豐厚的業務。

So having said that, remember, the very large accounts in many instances, are on fees. So it's not driven by commissions where small, medium and upper middle market accounts are typically on commissions. So if you were going to paint that picture, and we'll just compare it to CAT property, if you get paid a commission on something that pays $100,000, and this year, it's 70,000, then your revenue goes down. Conversely, if they pay $7 million and it goes from $7 million to $6 million, your fee, very -- in many instances stays the same, so your revenue is generally the same.

所以話雖如此，請記住，在很多情況下，大額帳戶都需要收費。因此，它不是由佣金驅動的，而小型、中型和中上層市場帳戶通常由佣金驅動。因此，如果您要描繪這幅圖景，我們將其與 CAT 財產進行比較，如果您從某項支付 100,000 美元的事務中獲得佣金，而今年的佣金為 70,000 美元，那麼您的收入就會下降。相反，如果他們支付 700 萬美元，而費用從 700 萬美元降至 600 萬美元，那麼在許多情況下，您的費用保持不變，因此您的收入通常保持不變。

Did that answer your question, Alex?

這回答了你的問題嗎，亞歷克斯？

Yes. That's very helpful. My other questions were answered.

是的。這非常有幫助。我的其他問題也得到了答案。

Thank you, Alex. We'll take one more.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。我們再拿一個。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶希爾茲，KBW。

I just want to check in, now that this is becoming more relevant, whether you're seeing a difference in economic growth expectations from clients outside of the US as you are domestically?

我只是想確認一下，既然這個問題現在變得越來越重要，您是否看到美國以外客戶對經濟成長的預期與您國內客戶對經濟成長的預期有所不同？

I think there's more questions about growth overseas than we find here in the United States. That's a very broad statement, but I think it would be moderated slightly. And I think it depends on where you are.

我認為有關海外成長的問題比我們在美國發現的更多。這是一個非常廣泛的表述，但我認為它會被稍微緩和一些。我認為這取決於你所在的位置。

Meyer, we're not seeing anything that is like this material change in outlook. I think back to Elyse's comment, and we said in the markets in which we participate, I mean, in Europe, we're primarily in England and Netherlands and Ireland are the major markets for us. And the backdrop there is still good. It doesn't mean there's not some pockets here and there, but there's pockets everywhere. There's pockets up in Canada, et cetera. So -- but no changes materially on that front.

邁耶，我們沒有看到任何類似這種觀點的實質變化。我回想起 Elyse 的評論，我們說過，在我們參與的市場中，我的意思是，在歐洲，我們主要在英國，荷蘭和愛爾蘭是我們的主要市場。那裡的背景仍然很好。這並不意味著這裡或那裡沒有口袋，而是到處都有口袋。加拿大等地也有人參與。所以——但在這方面沒有實質的變化。

Go ahead, Kevin.

繼續吧，凱文。

No, I was just going to turn the call back to you, Powell, so you can go in with your closing remarks.

不，我只是想把電話轉回給你，鮑威爾，這樣你就可以發表你的結束語了。

Yes. Thank you all very much. As we said, I think we had a really -- we feel we had a really good quarter and are excited about Q2 and beyond. Hope you all have a wonderful day, and thank you for your time. Bye.

是的。非常感謝大家。正如我們所說，我認為我們度過了一個非常好的季度，並對第二季度及以後的發展充滿期待。希望大家度過美好的一天，並感謝你們抽出時間。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接，享受美好的一天。