Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Brown & Brown fourth quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家的支持，歡迎參加 Brown & Brown 第四季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and including answers given in response to your questions, may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature. Such statements reflect our current views with respect to future events, including those relating to the company's anticipated financial results for the fourth quarter and are intended to fall within the Safe Harbor provisions of the securities laws.

請注意，本次電話會議中討論的某些信息，包括與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片演示中包含的信息以及對您的問題的回答，可能與未來結果和事件有關，或具有前瞻性。此類聲明反映了我們對未來事件的當前看法，包括與公司第四季度預期財務業績有關的看法，並旨在符合證券法的安全港規定。

Actual results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desired or referenced in any forward-looking statements made as a result of a number of factors. Such factors include the company's determination as it finalizes its financial results for the fourth quarter that its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday.

未來的實際結果或事件受多種風險和不確定因素的影響，並且可能與目前預期、期望或由於多種因素而在任何前瞻性陳述中提及的結果或事件存在重大差異。這些因素包括該公司在最終確定第四季度財務業績時確定其財務業績與昨天發布的新聞稿中所述的當前初步未經審計數據不同。

Other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified and those risks and uncertainties identified from time to time in the company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

公司目前可能尚未確定或量化的其他因素以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中不時確定的風險和不確定因素。

Additional discussion of these and other factors affecting the company's business and prospects as well as additional information regarding forward-looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

有關這些因素及其他影響公司業務和前景的因素的更多討論以及有關前瞻性陳述的更多信息，包含在與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片演示中以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。我們不承擔因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務。

In addition, there are certain non-GAAP financial measures used in this conference call. A reconciliation of any non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company's website at www.bbinsurance.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then Calendar of Events.

此外，本次電話會議也使用了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。任何非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表均可在公司的收益新聞稿中或公司網站 www.bbinsurance.com 上本次電話會議的投資者介紹中找到，方法是點擊“投資者關係”，然後點擊“事件日曆”。

With that said, I will now turn the call over to Powell Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉給總裁兼執行長鮑威爾布朗 (Powell Brown)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. First, we'd like to express our deepest condolences to the many individuals impacted by the California wildfires. The magnitude of the devastation caused by these events is horrific. We're committed to assisting those impacted by these terrible fires.

謝謝你，米歇爾。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。首先，我們要向加州野火中受影響的眾多個人表示最深切的哀悼。這些事件造成的破壞程度令人震驚。我們致力於幫助那些受到這些可怕火災影響的人。

Now transitioning to our results. Our fourth quarter performance was just outstanding and capped off another incredible year where our team delivered nearly $5 billion of revenue, which included double-digit organic and double-digit earnings per share growth as well as strong margin expansion. These results are only possible through the dedication of our 17,000-plus teammates delivering for our customers every day.

現在轉向我們的結果。我們第四季的業績非常出色，為又一個令人難以置信的年份畫上了句號。這些成績的取得離不開我們 17,000 多名隊友每天為客戶服務的辛勤付出。

Over the years, we've worked diligently to build a highly diversified business that consistently generates best-in-class financial results. The reason we can deliver these results is due to our unique operating culture.

多年來，我們一直努力建立高度多元化的業務，持續創造一流的財務表現。我們之所以能夠取得這些成果，得益於我們獨特的營運文化。

Now let's get into the results for the fourth quarter. I'm on slide number 4. For the fourth quarter, we delivered revenues of [$1.4 billion], growing 15% in total and 14% organically over Q4 of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDAC margin improved by almost 200 basis points to 33%, and our adjusted earnings per share grew 24.5% to $0.86. On the M&A front, we completed 10 acquisitions with estimated annual revenues of $137 million. Across the board, it was a very strong quarter.

現在讓我們來看看第四季的業績。我在幻燈片 4 上。第四季度，我們實現營收 [14 億美元]，比 2023 年第四季成長 15%，有機成長 14%。我們的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率提高了近 200 個基點，達到 33%，調整後每股收益成長 24.5% 至 0.86 美元。在併購方面，我們完成了 10 項收購，預計年收入為 1.37 億美元。總體而言，這是一個非常強勁的季度。

I'm on slide 5. For the full year of 2024, we delivered revenues of $4.8 billion, growing 13% in total and over 10% organically. Our adjusted EBITDAC margin was over 35%, increasing more than 100 basis points. On an adjusted basis, our diluted net income per share grew over 18% to $3.84. -- and we generated nearly $1.2 billion of cash from operations.

我在投影片 5 上。2024 年全年，我們營收 48 億美元，總成長 13%，有機成長超過 10%。我們的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率超過 35%，增加了 100 多個基點。經過調整後，我們的每股攤薄淨利潤成長超過 18%，達到 3.84 美元。 ——我們從營運中產生了近12億美元的現金。

We had another good year of M&A completing acquisitions with approximately $174 million of annual revenue with the largest being Quintes in the Netherlands. We'd like to extend a warm welcome to all the new teammates that joined us during 2024 and we're pleased with the quality of the organization and our new capabilities.

我們又度過了併購業務豐收的一年，完成的收購交易年收入約為 1.74 億美元，其中最大的收購對像是荷蘭的 Quintes。我們謹向 2024 年加入我們的所有新隊友表示熱烈的歡迎，我們對組織的品質和新的能力感到滿意。

I'm on slide 6. From an economic standpoint, there were no major changes for the markets in which we operate as compared to the last few quarters. Many business leaders have shifted from being cautious to cautiously optimistic. In addition, we did not see companies materially change their levels of investment as they're still hiring and growing their revenues generally at levels similar to the second and third quarters of 2024. Overall, the economies in which we operate are relatively stable, which we view as a good backdrop for our growth opportunities in 2025 and beyond.

我在第 6 張投影片。從經濟角度來看，與前幾季相比，我們經營的市場並沒有發生重大變化。許多企業領導者已經從謹慎轉為謹慎樂觀。此外，我們沒有看到公司實質地改變其投資水平，因為他們仍在招聘並且收入增長通常與 2024 年第二季度和第三季度的水平相似。整體而言，我們經營所在的經濟相對穩定，我們認為這為我們 2025 年及以後的成長機會奠定了良好的基礎。

From an insurance pricing standpoint, rate increases for most lines continued. However, they're moderating downward as compared to last quarter and last year, except for ongoing upward pressure on auto and casualty. The line that had the largest change for the quarter as compared to last year with CAT property, which we'll discuss in more detail. Pricing for Employee Benefits was similar to prior quarters as medical and pharmacy costs continue to be up 7% to 9%. This ongoing upward pressure and the complexity of health care are driving strong demand for our employee benefits consulting businesses.

從保險定價的角度來看，大多數險種的費率持續上漲。不過，與上一季和去年同期相比，除汽車和意外險持續面臨上行​​壓力外，其他方面均有所下降。本季與去年同期相比變化最大的是 CAT 財產，我們將對此進行更詳細的討論。由於醫療和藥房成本繼續上漲 7% 至 9%，員工福利定價與前幾季相似。這種持續的上行壓力和醫療保健的複雜性正在推動對我們的員工福利諮詢業務的強勁需求。

With the investments we've made and continue to make, we are well positioned to help companies of any size navigate these market challenges. Rates in the admitted P&C market moderated slightly as compared to last quarter and were up 2% to 7% for most lines versus the prior year. The downward trend for workers' compensation rates remained and they were flat to down 5% in most states.

透過我們已經進行並將繼續進行的投資，我們有能力幫助各種規模的公司應對這些市場挑戰。與上一季相比，認可的財產和意外險市場費率略有下降，大多數險種的費率較上年同期上漲了 2% 至 7%。工人賠償率的下降趨勢依然存在，大多數州的工人賠償率持平至下降 5%。

For the fourth quarter, rate increases for non-CAT property were still in the range of flat to up 5. For casualty, we continue to see rate increases for primary layers, mainly due to the ongoing size of legal judgments in the US. Consistent with the last few quarters, rates for excess casualty increased in the range of 1% to 10%. For professional liability, we saw rates flat to up 5% as compared to last year.

第四季度，非巨災房地產利率漲幅仍在持平至上漲 5% 的範圍內。對於傷亡險，我們繼續看到主要險種的費率上漲，這主要是由於美國法律判決的規模持續擴大。與前幾季的情況一致，超額傷亡率上漲了 1% 至 10%。對於專業責任，我們發現費率與去年相比持平或上漲了 5%。

Now shifting to the E&S markets. First, in reference to CAT property. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, there was speculation that the impact of Hurricane Helene and Milton would slow the recent decline of CAT property rates or even reverse the trend entirely. Based on insured losses and the fact that both storms were heavy flooding events versus wind, CAT property rates continue to decrease throughout the fourth quarter.

現在正轉向 E&S 市場。首先，關於CAT財產。第四季初，有猜測稱，颶風海倫和米爾頓的影響將減緩近期CAT房產費率的下滑，甚至會完全扭轉這一趨勢。基於保險損失，以及兩場風暴都是嚴重的洪水災害而非強風，CAT 財產保險費率在整個第四季度持續下降。

On average, rates were down 10% to 20%, similar to the end of the third quarter with more customers seeing decreases closer to or in excess of 20%. From a buyer's perspective, some leverage to lower rates to increase their limits or modify deductibles while others realize the savings. As a result of our broad diversification, rate changes for individual lines of business generally will not materially impact the total results for our company. The major drivers of our organic growth are the economy and our ability to win net new business.

平均而言，利率下降了 10% 至 20%，與第三季末的情況類似，但更多客戶的利率下降幅度接近或超過 20%。從買家的角度來看，有些人利用降低利率來提高限額或修改免賠額，而其他人則實現節省。由於我們的業務廣泛多樣化，各個業務線的利率變化通常不會對我們公司的整體業績產生重大影響。我們有機成長的主要驅動力是經濟和我們贏得淨新業務的能力。

This quarter was another good example. We had some lines that were up and some lines that were down while still delivering strong results. On the M&A front, we had a good quarter. We acquired 10 great companies at $137 million of annual revenue, and our largest acquisition was Quintes. We're very excited about our Dutch market position and our ability to grow over the coming years. From an overall market perspective, competition remains fierce for high-quality businesses, and we're starting to see more activity from financial sponsors for the smaller and midsized deals as interest rates are beginning to decrease.

本季是另一個很好的例子。我們的一些線路上升，一些線路下降，但仍然取得了強勁的業績。在併購方面，我們度過了一個很好的季度。我們收購了 10 家優秀的公司，年收入達 1.37 億美元，其中最大的收購是 Quintes。我們對我們在荷蘭市場的地位以及未來幾年的成長能力感到非常興奮。從整體市場來看，優質企業的競爭仍然激烈，隨著利率開始下降，我們開始看到金融贊助商對中小型交易的更多活動。

I'm now on slide 7. Let's transition to the performance of our three segments for the fourth quarter. Retail delivered 4.4% organic growth driven by good performance in most lines of business. We're pleased with the level of net new business as it was consistent with our strong performance over the last few quarters. Organic growth was partially impacted by the timing of our new business and certain nonrecurring revenue. For the full year, we delivered strong organic growth of 5.8% as our team is performing well, and we feel good about our prospects for 2025.

我現在講的是第 7 張投影片。讓我們轉到第四季三個部門的表現。由於大多數業務線的良好表現，零售業實現了 4.4% 的有機成長。我們對淨新業務水平感到滿意，因為這與我們過去幾季的強勁表現一致。有機成長部分受到我們新業務時機和某些非經常性收入的影響。全年而言，由於我們的團隊表現良好，我們實現了 5.8% 的強勁有機成長，我們對 2025 年的前景充滿信心。

Programs delivered another outstanding quarter with organic growth of 38.6%. This performance was driven by a number of our programs with strong new business and exposure unit expansion as well as claims revenue associated with the Q3 and Q4 hurricanes. Our lender-placed business and captives performed very well, and our CAT property business continue to grow even with cat property rates decreasing.

該等項目又一個季度表現出色，有機成長率達 38.6%。這項業績主要得益於我們的一系列項目，包括強勁的新業務和風險敞口單位擴張，以及與第三季和第四季颶風相關的索賠收入。我們的貸款人業務和自保公司表現非常出色，儘管巨災財產費率下降，我們的巨災財產業務仍在繼續成長。

For the full year, we grew 22.4% organically, an amazing results. As one of the largest, if not the largest global operator of MGAs and MGUs, we've made thoughtful and strategic investments, creating meaningful differentiation and resiliency in the marketplace.

就全年而言，我們的有機成長率達到了 22.4%，這是一個令人驚嘆的成績。作為全球最大的 MGA 和 MGU 營運商之一（如果不是最大的話），我們進行了深思熟慮的策略投資，在市場上創造了有意義的差異化和彈性。

Wholesale brokerage delivered another good quarter with organic revenue growth of 7.1%. This performance was driven by growth across all lines through a combination of net new business and exposure unit increases that was somewhat muted by the downward pressure of CAT property. For the full year, wholesale delivered strong organic growth of 9.1%, and we have good momentum heading into 2025.

批發經紀業務又一個季度表現良好，有機收入成長 7.1%。這一業績是由所有業務線的成長推動的，透過淨新業務和風險暴露單位的增加，但在一定程度上受到 CAT 財產下行壓力的影響。全年批發業務實現了 9.1% 的強勁有機成長，我們預計在 2025 年保持良好的發展勢頭。

Now I'll turn it over to Andy to get into more details regarding our financial results.

現在我將把主題交給安迪來詳細介紹我們的財務表現。

Great. Thank you, Powell. Good morning, everyone. I'll review our financial results in additional detail. When we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes, or diluted net income per share, we're referring to those measures on an adjusted basis. The reconciliations of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday.

偉大的。謝謝你，鮑威爾。大家早安。我將更詳細地回顧我們的財務結果。當我們提到 EBITDAC、EBITDAC 利潤率、稅前收入或每股稀釋淨收入時，我們指的是調整後的指標。我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表可在本簡報的附錄或我們昨天發布的新聞稿中找到。

We're over on slide number 8. We delivered total revenues of $1.184 billion, growing 15.4% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Income before income taxes increased by 27.2% and EBITDAC grew by 22.6%. Our EBITDAC margin was 32.9%, expanding by 190 basis points over the fourth quarter of the prior year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter increased slightly to 24.7% versus 24.1% in the fourth quarter of the prior year.

我們已經看過第 8 號投影片了。我們實現的總收入為 11.84 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比成長 15.4%。稅前收入成長27.2%，EBITDAC成長22.6%。我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 32.9%，較去年同期第四季擴大了 190 個基點。本季我們的有效稅率較去年同期的 24.1% 小幅上升至 24.7%。

Diluted net income per share increased 24.6% to $0.86. Our weighted average shares outstanding increased slightly compared to last year as we continue to prioritize paying down our floating rate debt. Lastly, our dividends paid per share increased by 15.4% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. Overall, it was a very strong quarter.

每股攤薄淨利成長24.6%至0.86美元。由於我們繼續優先償還浮動利率債務，我們的加權平均流通股數與去年相比略有增加。最後，與 2023 年第四季相比，我們的每股股息增加了 15.4%。總體而言，這是一個非常強勁的季度。

We're on slide number 9. The retail segment grew total revenues by 9.5% with organic growth of 4.4%. The difference between total revenues and organic revenue was driven substantially by acquisition activity over the past year and higher contingent commissions. EBITDAC margin expanded by 100 basis points to 27.8%, driven by higher contingent commissions, finalization of full year performance incentives, and leveraging of our expense base. This growth was partially offset by higher noncash stock-based compensation.

我們目前使用的是第 9 號投影片。零售部門總收入成長 9.5%，有機成長 4.4%。總收入和有機收入之間的差異主要是由於過去一年的收購活動和更高的或有佣金所致。EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 100 個基點，達到 27.8%，這得益於或有佣金的提高、全年績效激勵的最終確定以及費用基礎的利用。但這一增長被更高的非現金股票薪酬部分抵消。

We're on slide number 10. Programs had an excellent quarter with total revenues increasing 28.7% and organic growth of 38.6%. Keep in mind that a portion of this growth was associated the $19 million charge recorded in 2023 for the change in reinsurance related to one of our captives. Growth in total revenues benefited from higher contingent commissions but was lower than organic due to net disposition activity in the prior year.

我們在第 10 號投影片。本季專案表現十分出色，總營收成長 28.7%，有機成長 38.6%。請記住，這部分成長與 2023 年記錄的 1,900 萬美元費用有關，該費用與我們的一家自保公司的再保險變更有關。總收入的成長得益於更高的或有佣金，但由於上一年的淨處置活動，總收入的成長低於有機收入。

Our EBITDAC margin expanded by 660 basis points to 47.9%, primarily driven by leveraging our expense base and to a lesser extent, the sale of certain businesses in the fourth quarter of 2023. As we discussed in our third quarter earnings call, we anticipated recording $12 million to $15 million of flood claims processing revenue in the fourth quarter associated with Hurricanes Helene and Milton. As a result of faster-than-anticipated adjudication and increased average severity, we recorded approximately $28 million.

我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 660 個基點，達到 47.9%，這主要得益於我們費用基礎的利用，以及在較小程度上得益於 2023 年第四季度某些業務的出售。正如我們在第三季財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，我們預計第四季度與颶風海倫和米爾頓相關的洪水索賠處理收入將達到 1200 萬至 1500 萬美元。由於裁決速度比預期的快，且平均嚴重程度增加，我們記錄了約 2800 萬美元。

With increased visibility into the timing of adjudicating claims and severity, we now anticipate recognizing revenues of approximately $14 million to $18 million in the first half of 2025 with the majority being recorded in the first quarter of this year.

隨著對裁決索賠的時間和嚴重程度的了解不斷提高，我們現在預計在 2025 年上半年確認約 1,400 萬至 1,800 萬美元的收入，其中大部分將在今年第一季記錄。

We're over on slide number 11. Our wholesale brokerage segment had another good quarter with total revenues increasing 11.6% and organic growth of 7.1%. The incremental expansion in total revenues in excess of organic was driven substantially by higher contingent commissions. Our EBITDAC margin decreased by 140 basis points to 25.7% due to the finalization of full year performance incentives, along with certain onetime costs.

我們已經看過第 11 張投影片了。我們的批發經紀部門又度過了一個良好的季度，總收入成長了 11.6%，有機成長了 7.1%。總收入超過有機收入的增量擴張主要得益於或有佣金的增加。由於全年績效激勵以及某些一次性成本的最終確定，我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率下降了 140 個基點至 25.7%。

We're over on slide number 12. This presents our results for both years. Our EBITDAC grew by 17% and with the margin increasing 130 basis points to 35.2%, with net income before income taxes growing 19.6%, and net income per share was $3.84, growing by 18.2%. These compare to total revenue growth of 12.9%.

我們已經看過第 12 張投影片了。這是我們兩年來的業績。我們的 EBITDAC 成長了 17%，利潤率增加了 130 個基點，達到 35.2%，稅前淨收入成長了 19.6%，每股淨收入為 3.84 美元，成長了 18.2%。相比之下，總收入成長了 12.9%。

Overall, we are extremely pleased with the results for 2024. We have a few other comments regarding our capital structure, cash generation, and outlook. From a cash perspective, we generated $1.174 billion of cash flow from operations, growing 16.2% over the prior year. Our full year ratio of cash flow from operations as a percentage of total revenues remained strong at 24.4%. As a reminder, we have also deferred the payment of approximately $90 million of federal income taxes for the third and fourth quarters of 2024 related to the IRS tax relief associated with the 2024 hurricanes. These taxes are due to be paid in the second quarter of 2025.

整體而言，我們對 2024 年的業績感到非常滿意。我們對我們的資本結構、現金產生和前景還有一些其他評論。從現金角度來看，我們產生的經營現金流為 11.74 億美元，比上年成長 16.2%。我們全年經營現金流佔總收入的比例保持強勁，為 24.4%。提醒一下，我們也推遲了 2024 年第三季和第四季約 9,000 萬美元的聯邦所得稅的支付，這些稅款與 2024 年颶風帶來的美國國稅局稅收減免有關。這些稅款將於 2025 年第二季繳納。

During the quarter, we also drew down $250 million on our revolving credit facility in connection with the closing of the Quintes acquisition. For the full year, we continue to delever and finish 2024 in a conservative position as our gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio is in line with our 10-year average.

在本季度，我們也為完成 Quintes 收購而提取了 2.5 億美元的循環信貸額度。就全年而言，我們將繼續去槓桿，並以保守的態度結束 2024 年，因為我們的總債務與 EBITDA 比率與我們的 10 年平均值一致。

We have a few comments regarding outlook for 2025. As it relates to contingent commissions based on what we know now, we anticipate contingents for the full year of 2025 will be down slightly compared to 2024. The unknown variables are the potential impact of the California wildfires and the outcome of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

我們對 2025 年的展望有一些評論。根據我們目前所知，就或有佣金而言，我們預計 2025 年全年的或有佣金將較 2024 年略有下降。未知變數包括加州野火的潛在影響以及 2025 年大西洋颶風季的結果。

For the retail division, we have two items. The first relates to the phasing of revenues between quarters. Based on the forecasted timing of net new business, organic revenue growth for the first quarter is anticipated to be approximately 100 basis points lower than the organic growth for the other three quarters.

對於零售部門，我們有兩項。第一個涉及季度間收入的分階段劃分。根據淨新業務的預測時間，第一季的有機收入成長將比其他三個季度的有機成長低約 100 個基點。

The second item relates to our recent acquisition of Quintes and the phasing of its revenues and profit. In the Netherlands, a substantial number of policies are placed in the first quarter of the year. As a result, we will record approximately 60% of Quintes' annual revenues in the first quarter, with the remaining revenues recognized fairly evenly over the following three quarters.

第二項與我們最近對 Quintes 的收購以及其收入和利潤的分階段有關。在荷蘭，大量的保單都是在每年第一季制定的。因此，我們將在第一季記錄 Quintes 約 60% 的年度收入，剩餘收入將在接下來的三個季度中平均分配。

From a margin perspective, this will improve Q1 margins and will unfavorably impact the margins in the other quarters. From a full year perspective, we anticipate revenue and EBITDA to be within the ranges outlined during our August 2024 call. As it pertains to taxes, we expect our effective tax rate to be relatively consistent with 2024, it should be in the range of 24% to 25%. Based on the current outlook regarding interest rate cuts in 2025, we anticipate interest expense to be in the range of $170 million to $180 million for the full year. In regard to interest income, we anticipate this to be in the range of $65 million to $70 million, given recent reductions in the benchmark rate in certain territories.

從利潤率的角度來看，這將提高第一季的利潤率，並對其他季度的利潤率產生不利影響。從全年角度來看，我們預計收入和 EBITDA 將在 2024 年 8 月電話會議上概述的範圍內。至於稅收，我們預計我們的有效稅率將與 2024 年相對一致，應該在 24% 至 25% 之間。根據目前 2025 年降息的預測，我們預計全年利息支出將在 1.7 億至 1.8 億美元之間。至於利息收入，考慮到近期部分地區基準利率的下調，我們預計利息收入將在 6,500 萬至 7,000 萬美元之間。

Finally, taking into consideration that net income and contingents will more than likely be down in 2025, we're expecting our adjusted EBITDAC margins for 2025 to be relatively flat.

最後，考慮到 2025 年淨收入和或有事項很可能會下降，我們預計 2025 年調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率將相對持平。

With that, let me turn it back over to Powell for closing comments.

最後，請容許我把話題轉回給鮑威爾，請他作最後評論。

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we expect the economies in which we operate to continue to be stable and grow at levels similar to the second half of '24. We believe this is a good backdrop for companies to grow and invest at moderate levels. From a US perspective, the main topics that most business leaders are watching include policy changes from the new presidential administration, the outcomes of potential tariffs, the timing and trajectory of interest rates, inflation and finally, geopolitical matters. Depending on the outcome of each, it will influence the pace and intensity of investments in business growth.

謝謝，安迪。很棒的報告。從經濟角度來看，我們預計我們經營所在的經濟將繼續保持穩定並以與24年下半年相似的水平成長。我們相信，這對企業的成長和適度投資來說是一個很好的背景。從美國的角度來看，大多數商界領袖關注的主要議題包括新總統政府的政策變化、潛在關稅的結果、利率的時間和軌跡、通貨膨脹以及地緣政治問題。根據每個結果，它將影響業務成長投資的速度和強度。

For insurance pricing, we'll provide our thoughts on rates for the first half of 2025 as too many things can change during the year. Specifically, timely extinguishment of the California wildfires will be critical and we're hopeful there will not be another large -- there will not be other large wildfires as the estimated losses are significant.

對於保險定價，我們將提供對 2025 年上半年費率的看法，因為這一年可能會發生太多變化。具體來說，及時撲滅加州山火至關重要，我們希望不會再發生大規模山火——因為預計損失巨大。

Then depending on the magnitude of insured losses, there could be impacts on California pricing for both admitted and non-admitted property. Subject to this outcome, we anticipate rates for admitted lines to be relatively similar or maybe moderate downwards slightly versus their pricing in the second half of 2024 across the country.

然後，根據保險損失的規模，可能會對加州承認和未承認財產的定價產生影響。受此結果影響，我們預計 2024 年下半年全國範圍內承認的線路費率將相對相似或略有下降。

There will be similar outliers that we talked about earlier. For the E&S markets, the discussion will really be split between CAT property and all other lines. We expect rates for casualty and professional liability should be similar to what they were in the second half of '24. CAT property, we expect there will be additional downward pressure in rates as compared to pricing in the fourth quarter. Based on what we are seeing early indications in Q1 would lead us to believe that property rates could be down more than 20% based on construction quality and loss experience.

將會出現我們之前談到的類似的異常值。對於 E&S 市場，討論實際上將分為 CAT 財產和所有其他線路。我們預期意外險和專業責任險的費率應該與24年下半年的水平相似。對於CAT房地產，我們預計與第四季的定價相比，利率將面臨額外的下行壓力。根據我們第一季的早期跡象，我們相信，基於建築品質和損失經驗，房地產利率可能會下降 20% 以上。

On the M&A front, we feel good as we have a robust pipeline, both domestically and internationally, and are building relationships with lots of good companies. As a result of some of the larger transactions last year, we're starting to see a moderation in multiples in the larger PE-backed businesses. From our perspective, we finished the year in a strong cash and balance sheet position and have access to capital to deploy for companies that fit culturally and make sense financially.

在併購方面，我們感覺很好，因為我們擁有強大的國內和國際管道，並且正在與許多優秀公司建立關係。由於去年一些較大的交易，我們開始看到大型私募股權支持的企業的本益比有所放緩。從我們的角度來看，我們在去年擁有強勁的現金和資產負債表狀況，並且能夠獲得資本，用於投資那些文化上適合、財務上合理的公司。

We're looking forward to another successful year in 2025. Our businesses are performing well as we're leveraging our collective capabilities to win more new business and help our existing customers achieve better results. Our market position is great, as we will continue to leverage our solution selling model to win and retain more customers across our three segments.

我們期待 2025 年再創輝煌。我們的業務表現良好，因為我們正在利用我們的集體能力來贏得更多新業務並幫助我們現有的客戶取得更好的表現。我們的市場地位很好，因為我們將繼續利用我們的解決方案銷售模式來贏得和留住三個部門的更多客戶。

With that, I'll turn it back over to Michelle to open for Q&A.

說完這些，我會把話題交還給米歇爾，讓她開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Thank you. And good morning everyone. In your comments, you spoke about net new business and the success you had last year and certainly, you're seeing it in retail and programs. I was wondering if you could give us some perspective on to some of the drivers there and how your outlook is for '25 on net new business and how it compares with the industry? And maybe inside that, sort of map out for us what California might do or how that might affect new business for you in next year?

謝謝。大家早安。在您的評論中，您談到了淨新業務和去年的成功，當然，您在零售和項目方面看到了這一點。我想知道您是否可以提供一些關於其中驅動因素的看法，以及您對 25 年淨新業務的展望以及與行業相比如何？或許在裡面，您可以為我們規劃加州可能採取的行動或這將如何影響您明年的新業務？

Good morning, Greg. A couple of things that I would just say broadly across the business in '24. We wrote more new business than we ever have in all three of our divisions. So we're really pleased with that, number one.

早安，格雷格。我想就 24 年的業務範圍廣泛地談幾件事。我們三個部門的新業務量都超過了以往任何時候。因此，我們對此感到非常高興，這是第一名。

Number two, we anticipate our ability to continue to do that because of the capabilities that we have and we've invested in, both built and purchased. And we are working really well together, as you know, as a collaborative company to leverage the capabilities to the benefit of all of our customers.

第二，我們預計我們有能力繼續做到這一點，因為我們擁有並投資了建造和購買的能力。如您所知，作為一家協作公司，我們正在很好地合作，充分利用我們的能力，為所有客戶謀福利。

As it relates to California, and I think that's a whole kettle of fish onto itself, I think there's a lot of variables there. And so number one, the impact to the fair plan. And in the event the losses are in excess of all [monies] accessible, both surplus, and reinsurance how do the assessments work. That's a big question.

至於與加州的關係，我認為這是一整套問題，我認為那裡有很多變數。所以第一，這對公平計劃有影響。如果損失超過所有可用資金，那麼盈餘和再保險的評估將如何進行。這是一個大問題。

Number two, the number of admitted carriers in the state today doing business and the number of nonadmitted carriers will be impacted probably by the actions on a go-forward basis. And so the Governor and the Insurance Commissioner there are dealing with a difficult scenario where they're trying to provide an acceptable market. So availability of product with competitive pricing of that product. And so at a very high level, I would tell you that we believe that there is -- it would seem to us that it would be a massive expansion in the E&S market in that area.

第二，目前在該州開展業務的獲準承運商的數量和未被準許的承運商的數量可能會受到今後行動的影響。因此，州長和保險專員正在應對一個困難的情況，他們正在努力提供一個可接受的市場。因此產品的供應具有競爭力的價格。因此，從非常高的層面上講，我相信——在我們看來，這將是該地區 E&S 市場的大規模擴張。

Having said that, many people not in our industry don't fully understand the impact of demand surge and the need for quality contractors to rebuild. And I can't stress the importance of those two things because that drives pricing and the ability to respond, that is independent of any regulatory or permitting actions.

話雖如此，許多非本行業人士並不完全了解需求激增的影響以及重建對優質承包商的需求。我無法強調這兩件事的重要性，因為它們決定了定價和回應能力，與任何監管或許可行動無關。

Are you still there?

你還在嗎？

Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅伯特‧考克斯 (Robert Cox)。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. Yeah, curious just to maybe start off with retail. Last quarter, I think you all mentioned that the run rate going into the fourth quarter was about 5%. Is that still the run rate as we think about heading into next year or into 1Q '25? And could you sort of size the impact to the retail organic this quarter from the nonrecurring item?

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。是的，我很好奇，也許想從零售業開始。上個季度，我想你們都提到過，第四季的運行率約為 5%。當我們考慮進入明年或 2025 年第一季時，這仍然是運行率嗎？您能否評估非經常性項目對本季零售有機成長的影響？

Good morning, Rob, it's Andy here. On the comment that we made in our prepared remarks regarding kind of timing is, as you know, we've got a number of businesses that we can have comparables by quarters, timing when kind of things come in. Some of our employee benefits businesses as well as bonds businesses such as those. Those can move around by quarters and then there's always just kind of timing of net new business.

早安，羅布，我是安迪。關於我們在準備好的評論中對時機所做的評論，如您所知，我們有許多業務，我們可以按季度進行比較，以確定事情發生的時間。我們的一些員工福利業務以及債券業務也是如此。這些可能會按季度變動，並且總會有淨新增業務的時機。

We think that probably impacted the organic by 40 to 60 basis points in the quarter. We'll see that -- that will just come back over the coming quarters. It can move around by quarters, but nothing that gave us any underlying pause in there. But we feel really good about momentum heading into 2025 and just how well the business is collaborating and win in the net new business as Powell talked about earlier.

我們認為這可能對本季的有機成長產生 40 至 60 個基點的影響。我們會看到這一點——這將在接下來的幾個季度內再次出現。它可以按季度移動，但沒有任何東西可以為我們帶來任何潛在的停頓。但正如鮑威爾之前談到的，我們對 2025 年的發展勢頭感到非常樂觀，而且業務合作良好，並在淨新業務中獲勝。

Okay. And just on my follow-up, for the program segment, it seems like a lot of moving pieces. I was just hoping you could talk about sort of the sustainability of the underlying organic growth in that segment into 2025? And also, what does a normal run rate year of contingent commissions look like in programs?

好的。根據我的後續報道，對於程序部分來說，似乎有很多活動的部分。我只是希望您能談談該領域到 2025 年的潛在有機成長的可持續性？此外，專案中或有佣金的正常運作年率是什麼樣的？

You want to answer the contingent? .

你想回答這個問題嗎？。

Yeah, Rob. Let me take contingents first on it, is we -- we've had a really good year as well as fourth quarter on contingents in -- in the programs business as well as, obviously, across all of our segments. I think the one that had downward pressure during the year was in retail, primarily in personal lines. But I think as we head into 2025, we know we had some adjustments to calculations this year related to finalization of the contingents on 2023. So we think at least going into next year that we'll have probably some downward pressure on contingents in that space. And I think the other area is just kind of exactly how the losses play out in California and how that may impact a couple of our programs. It's hard to tell right now.

是的，羅布。讓我先談談偶然因素，我們 — — 今年以及第四季度在專案業務以及所有部門的偶然因素方面都取得了非常好的成績。我認為今年面臨下行壓力的是零售業，主要是個人險。但我認為，隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們知道我們對今年與確定 2023 年隊伍有關的計算進行了一些調整。因此，我們認為至少到明年，我們可能會在該領域的隊伍中面臨一些下行壓力。我認為另一個方面是加州的損失究竟會如何，以及這可能會對我們的一些項目產生什麼影響。現在還很難說。

So Robert, on your other question, if you think about two of the components of the growth in programs this quarter, you had the increase --. Well, you had the total flood revenue, and you had the $19 million reinsurance component. And so if you think about in our program space, a lot of growth in the last several years has been driven from wind and quake and some of our other larger programs. And in those particular areas today, we're starting to see more rate pressure.

羅伯特，關於你的另一個問題，如果你考慮本季專案成長的兩個組成部分，你會發現成長--.嗯，你有全部的洪水收入，還有 1900 萬美元的再保險部分。因此，如果您考慮我們的專案空間，過去幾年的很大一部分成長都是由風災、地震和我們的一些其他大型專案推動的。如今，在這些特定領域，我們開始看到更多的利率壓力。

And so that does not mean we don't think we can grow. I'm not trying to give you that impression, but I think that you're seeing not only in programs, but kind of across the industry kind of a moderating of growth rates. And so we don't give guidance, as you know, on organic growth in that area. But what I would say is -- we feel really good about our programs business.

但這並不意味著我們認為我們無法發展。我並不是想給你這樣的印象，但我認為你不僅在專案中看到了成長率的放緩，而且在整個產業中也看到了成長率的放緩。因此，如您所知，我們不會對該領域的有機成長提供指導。但我想說的是——我們對我們的專案業務感到非常滿意。

Part of that is really driven by the results we've delivered for our carrier partners and their willingness to work with us in adjusting prices downward to remain competitive in the marketplace. It's not easy, but we feel good about '25 and beyond for programs.

部分原因實際上是由我們為承運合作夥伴提供的成果以及他們願意與我們合作下調價格以保持市場競爭力所推動的。這並不容易，但我們對 25 年及以後的專案感到很滿意。

And then, Rob, also, keep in mind our captive, right? And we write a specific amount of premium inside of their and we're kind of hitting that, we'll call it, that run rate now. So we won't see that same amount of lift going to the '25 as we've seen over kind of '23 and '24, it's performing very well, but we capitate that in order to limit the exposure.

然後，羅布，也要記得我們的俘虜，對吧？我們在他們的保單裡面寫入了特定金額的保費，我們現在正在達到我們稱之為的運作率。因此，我們不會看到 25 年出現與 23 年和 24 年相同的升幅，它的表現非常好，但我們會將其抑制以限制風險。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘 (Elyse Greenspan)。

Hi, thanks. My first question is on retail. So it sounds like with some of the timing stuff that gets you right closer to the [5%], which was the adjusted Q3 number as well. Andy, I know you pointed out, right, Q1 1% better than the other three quarters of the year? And I know you guys typically don't want to give forward guidance on that segment. But can you just help us think about triangulating that 5%, maybe even just to the Q1, given this 1% headwind that you're pointing to? Is the right way to think that it's 5%, less 1% just given the noise we saw in the back half of 2024.

嗨，謝謝。我的第一個問題是關於零售業的。因此，聽起來，一些時間因素會讓您更接近 [5%]，這也是調整後的第三季數字。安迪，我知道您指出了，對吧，第一季比今年其他三個季度好 1%？我知道你們通常不想對該部分給予前瞻性指引。但是，考慮到您所指出的 1% 的逆風，您能否幫助我們考慮將這 5% 甚至只是第一季的數據進行三角測量？正確的想法是，考慮到我們在 2024 年下半年看到的噪音，這個數字是 5%，比 1% 要低。

I'd like to answer that, Elyse. So I know this frustrates you, but at the end of the day, we've said that our retail business is a low to mid-single-digit organic growth business. So we're not going to give you the number, but whatever the number is that you think, as you said, we've articulated that we foresee a 100 bps headwind in Q1 that does not impact our overall outlook for the year. We just are giving you that guidance relative to Q1.

我想回答這個問題，伊莉絲。所以我知道這讓你感到沮喪，但最終，我們說我們的零售業務是一個低到中等個位數的有機成長業務。因此，我們不會給您確切的數字，但無論您認為這個數字是多少，正如您所說，我們已經明確表示，我們預計第一季將出現 100 個基點的逆風，但這不會影響我們對今年的整體前景。我們只是為您提供與第一季相關的指導。

So at least, the easiest way to think that whatever number you have on it, so if it's a 4%, 5%, 6%, whatever your number is, you want to keep your full year number correct or keep it in line with where you are, just adjust down the first quarter and then push up to the second, third and fourth, okay?

因此，至少，最簡單的思考方式是，無論您上面的數字是什麼，如果是 4%、5%、6%，無論您的數字是多少，您都希望保持全年數字正確或與您所在的位置保持一致，只需向下調整第一季度，然後向上推至第二、第三和第四季度，好嗎？

And then with the margin guide, right, obviously, programs, right, there's some headwind, right, from -- you obviously had greater flood-related revenue in '24 than you expect in '25. So I'm assuming that could be a margin headwind in that segment, depending upon organic. Do the other segments, I guess, feel clean from just thinking about organic relative to margin expectations?

然後，對於利潤指南，對吧，顯然，項目對吧，存在一些阻力，對吧——顯然，你在 24 年的洪水相關收入比你預期的 25 年要多。因此，我假設這可能是該細分市場的利潤阻力，這取決於有機部分。我猜，如果只考慮相對於利潤預期的有機成長，其他部分是否感覺很清晰？

And then one, just random one, the corporate segment had like $11 million of negative EBITDA in the quarter. I just wasn't sure what was flowing through there.

然後，隨機抽出一個，企業部門本季的 EBITDA 為負 1,100 萬美元。我只是不確定那裡流著什麼。

Okay. So I think the color that we gave on full year guidance, Elyse, was on total company. We don't break it down by the individual segments. And you're right. I think two areas that we think will represent headwinds will be investment income and contingents. Dependent upon what happens with storm claim activity this year, we do have the storm claim revenues in the first quarter for primarily first quarter and some over into the second quarter for last year.

好的。因此，我認為我們給出的全年指導意見是針對整個公司的。我們不會將其按照各個部分進行細分。你說得對。我認為，我們認為會出現阻力的兩個領域是投資收益和或有事項。根據今年風暴索賠活動的情況，我們在第一季確實有風暴索賠收入，主要是去年第一季的收入，還有一些收入延續到第二季​​。

We think at least with the headwinds that we know about on the contingents and investment income that the remainder of the business should perform pretty well next year, again, is always moving parts back and forth that should get total company relatively flat on adjusted EBITDAC margins.

我們認為，至少在我們知道的或有事項和投資收益方面的不利因素的影響下，剩餘業務明年應該會表現得相當好，同樣，各個部分總是來回波動，這應該會使整個公司的調整後 EBITDAC 利潤率保持相對平穩。

And then just the corporate in the Q4?

那麼第四季只是公司狀況嗎？

We just had some one-off costs in there in the fourth quarter, nothing real unusual in nature. So those can always kind of move around by quarters and by years, but nothing unusual.

我們在第四季只是產生了一些一次性成本，本質上沒有什麼不尋常的。因此，這些總是可以按季度和年份變動，但沒有什麼不尋常的。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays

巴克萊銀行亞歷克斯·斯科特

Hi. First one I had for you is just to see if you could expand on some of the commentary provided on the M&A environment. Just looking at what some of your peers have done, it seems like maybe the environment is more ripe for larger scale M&A of some of these private equity-backed companies that have gotten maybe too big for the private markets. Are you seeing more of those types of opportunities? And any way we could think about your appetite in terms of how big it should go?

你好。我要問您的第一個問題只是想看看您是否可以詳細闡述有關併購環境的一些評論。只要看看一些同行所做的事情，似乎環境可能更適合對一些私募股權支持的公司進行更大規模的併購，這些公司可能已經變得太大而無法進入私人市場。您是否看到更多此類機會？我們能不能想想你的胃口應該有多大？

So good morning, Alex. So as you know, we talk mostly about cultural fit, first and foremost. And then, would it make sense financially. What's occurring in the market not only last year, but this year and what we anticipate in years to come is exactly what we thought for some time.

早安，亞歷克斯。所以如你所知，我們首先談論的是文化契合度。那麼，從財務角度來說這是否合理？不僅去年市場發生的情況，而且今年市場發生的情況以及我們對未來幾年的預期也與我們一段時間以來的想法完全一致。

Two-plus years ago, we started and I started talking about internally the potential for great consolidation in our industry in the next three to five to seven years. And what you've seen is you're seeing parts of that, the firms that were acquired last year were the larger ones were all private equity backed. And there are other private equity-backed firms out there that are seeking to buy other large private equity-backed firms.

兩年多前，我們開始在內部討論未來三到五到七年內我們產業實現大規模整合的可能性。而您看到的是，去年被收購的公司都是規模較大的公司，都是私募股權支持的。並且還有其他私募股權支持的公司正在尋求收購其他大型私募股權支持的公司。

There are other strategics that are thinking about or looking to buy the right firm. What we would tell you is we look at every individual opportunity on its own merits. And so what we have done, and we're very proud of is that we have been very conservative financially and paid down our debt when we make larger acquisitions to prepare us to make an investment of pretty much any size business that we might want to buy. It doesn't mean we're going to buy anything big or -- but we want the ability to do it if we find the right one.

還有其他策略家正在考慮或尋求收購合適的公司。我們要告訴您的是，我們會根據每個機會的優點來審視它。因此，我們所做的並且感到非常自豪的是，我們在財務上非常保守，在進行更大規模的收購時償還債務，為我們可能想要購買的幾乎任何規模的企業進行投資做好準備。這並不意味著我們要購買任何大件物品——但是，如果我們找到合適的物品，我們希望有能力去購買。

And so we feel really good about our positioning not only from the core business that we have and the opportunity to do very good acquisitions on a stand-alone basis. And if a larger acquisition came along that fit culturally and made sense financially, we'd absolutely look at it. But we feel really good about the business and where we're going. And the most important thing is we want to have, which we do, the ability to invest, how we want to invest, when we want to invest in our business.

因此，我們對自己的定位感到非常滿意，不僅因為我們擁有的核心業務，還因為有機會在獨立的基礎上進行非常好的收購。如果有更大規模的收購，並且符合我們的文化和財務狀況，我們絕對會考慮。但我們對於我們的業務和未來發展感到非常滿意。最重要的是我們希望擁有投資的能力，知道如何投資，何時投資。

That's really helpful. Next one I had is just on lender placed. I wanted to get a sense for is that business operate more in sort of the Southeast Florida or do you have exposure to California? I'm just trying to understand where we are in sort of the cycle of nonrenewals and how that may impact lender placed.

這真的很有幫助。我接下來要做的就是向貸款人提供貸款。我想要了解的是，您的業務是否更多地在佛羅裡達州東南部運營，還是在加利福尼亞州也有業務？我只是想要了解我們處於什麼類型的不續約週期，以及這會對貸款人產生什麼影響。

I think Florida maybe were hopefully getting closer to the end of a challenging environment where there were a lot of nonrenewals. But in California, it seems like we're probably going into one, right? So I'm just trying to understand tailwinds and [tougher comps] and that sort of thing.

我認為佛羅裡達州或許有望擺脫充滿挑戰、存在大量不續約情況的環境。但在加州，我們似乎很可能會陷入其中，對嗎？所以我只是想要了解順風和[更艱難的比賽]以及諸如此類的事情。

We'll make it simple, Alex, the entire United States.

我們會把事情變得簡單，亞歷克斯，整個美國。

That's clear. Alrighty.

這很清楚。好的。

I'm not trying to be funny. I'm just telling you we have exposure everywhere.

我並不是想搞笑。我只是告訴你，我們到處都有曝光。

Understood. That is what I wanted to get at. So thank you.

明白了。這正是我想要得到的。所以謝謝你。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克·休斯，Truist Securities。

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Andy, I want to just make sure I'm thinking about the $19 million change to reinsurance items. Are we to think the impact on organic growth is the fact that you didn't have that item this year is a $19 million good guide to organic, and that's the way to calculate it.

是的。謝謝。早安.安迪，我只是想確保我正在考慮對再保險項目的 1900 萬美元變更。我們是否應該認為對有機成長的影響是因為今年你沒有這個項目，這是 1900 萬美元的有機成長良好指南，這就是計算方法。

Yeah, I think that would be fine, Mark. I mean remember, we last year in the fourth quarter, so fourth quarter of '23, right? We took that adjustment for the change in the treatment, so that was a negative impact to our organic in fourth quarter of last year. And now we're on a comparative basis. So it's not like you're going to see next year that it's a different comp that's already in there. So we'll be comparable to comparable Q4 '24 to Q4 '25.

是的，我認為那樣就好了，馬克。我的意思是記得，我們​​去年第四季度，也就是 23 年第四季度，對吧？我們對治療方式的變化進行了調整，因此這對我們去年第四季的有機業務產生了負面影響。現在我們來進行比較。因此，這並不意味著你明年就會看到與已經存在的公司不同的公司。因此，我們將與 2024 年第四季和 2025 年第四季進行比較。

Understood. Then Paul, you had mentioned, I guess, in Florida, you've got the lot more experience with the need for quality contractors to rebuild. Do you have any observations about the supply of quality contractors in California?

明白了。那麼保羅，我想你提到過，在佛羅裡達，你在重建需要優質承包商方面擁有更多的經驗。您對加州優質承包商的供應有何看法？

Well, this would be purely speculative, Mark. But the answer is based on the magnitude of the losses, there cannot humanly possible be enough contractors. I'm not trying to be funny, but I'm just saying the demand will be so massive. And one of the things that I've been told -- please don't quote me on this, but is that getting a permit to build a home can take up to 1.5 years.

嗯，這純粹只是推測，馬克。但答案是基於損失的嚴重程度，人力不可能有足夠的承包商。我並不是想搞笑，只是想說需求將會非常巨大。我聽說的一件事——請不要引用我的話，但那就是獲得建造房屋的許可證可能需要長達 1.5 年的時間。

So I believe that the Governor and the rest of the elected officials there will need to do something that will be more thoughtful in terms of expediting the rebuild. So think of something on a much larger scale, which would allow them to expedite construction. So let me lead you down the path of something like the Marshall plan.

因此，我相信州長和其他民選官員需要採取更周到的措施來加快重建進程。因此，請考慮一些更大規模的事情，這將使他們能夠加快建造速度。那麼讓我帶你們回顧一下類似馬歇爾計畫的歷程。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

Hey, thanks. This is Charlie on for Mike. Maybe just going back to the flattish margin expectations. Can you just provide some color on what the drivers of margin expansion, ex-contingents and ex-flood revenue since that will likely be lower. Is it more operating expense or comp and [ben]? And is it just operating leverage driving that? Or is there anything more you can touch on?

嘿，謝謝。這是 Charlie 代替 Mike 上場。或許只是回到平穩的獲利預期。您能否提供一些關於利潤率擴大的驅動因素，除或有事項和除洪水收入外，這些收入可能會更低。是更多的營業費用還是補償費用？[本]？這只是經營槓桿造成的嗎？或者您還能談談其他什麼嗎？

Hey, good morning Charlie, it's really around operating leverage. Again, remember, we run hundreds of businesses across the platform. So we're always looking to try to make sure we grow profitably. But also we invest in our businesses at different times. So it's not like each one of them grows the exact same percentage and delivers the exact same profit. There's a lot of move parts inside the organization.

嘿，早上好，查理，這實際上是關於經營槓桿的。再次提醒，請記住，我們在整個平台上經營數百家企業。因此，我們始終致力於確保獲利成長。但我們也會在不同時期對我們的業務進行投資。因此，並不是每家公司都實現完全相同的成長百分比和實現完全相同的利潤。組織內部有很多活動部件。

So we're just trying to kind of make it relatively simple for the outside world as to how we see all the moving parts. And we'll get some benefits of investments we made in previous years, and we'll make some more investments in the current year in different areas.

因此，我們只是想讓外界相對簡單地了解我們如何看待所有活動部件。我們將從前幾年的投資中獲得一些收益，並且今年我們將在不同領域進行更多投資。

Got it. Thank you. And then I guess for my follow-up, we've seen some data showing relatively significant deep population out of citizens into the private market in Florida. Do you guys -- is that materially expecting or impacting your guidance? Or do you see that having an impact just based on the different commission structures there?

知道了。謝謝。然後我想，在我的後續調查中，我們看到一些數據顯示，佛羅裡達州有大量民眾湧入私人市場。你們——這是否實質地預期或影響了你們的指導？或者您認為僅基於不同的佣金結構就會產生影響？

No.

不。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Dean Criscitiello, KBW.

Dean Criscitiello，KBW。

Hi. I was wondering if the decelerating pricing in property implies less customer shopping? Or in other words, are you seeing less property accounts migrate for the wholesale markets.

你好。我想知道房地產價格下跌是否意味著顧客購物減少？或者換句話說，您是否看到批發市場的房地產帳戶遷移減少了。

Absolutely not. So let me just Dean explain the dynamics there in an extreme example, but a real one. Dean, you are an owner of cold storage warehouses in Florida, they're $50 million total insured values, and you have one in Miami, you have one in Naples. You have one in Tampa and you got one in Jacksonville. And for the last five years or more, but for the last five years, your insurance premium has gone up every year and in some instances substantially. And so you are -- you're not feeling so good about insurance, unfortunately.

絕對不是。所以，讓我用一個極端但真實的例子來解釋其中的動態。迪恩，您在佛羅裡達州擁有冷藏倉庫，這些倉庫的總保險價值為 5000 萬美元，您在邁阿密和那不勒斯各有一個。你在坦帕有一個，在傑克遜維爾也有一個。並且在過去五年或更長時間裡，但在過去五年裡，您的保險費每年都在上漲，在某些情況下還大幅上漲。所以你——不幸的是，你對保險的感覺不太好。

And so one of two things happens, you want to make sure that your broker is doing the right thing and either we will bring you what the market will bear. And in this case, the market will bear typically downward pressure on rates.

因此，會發生以下兩種情況之一：您要確保您的經紀人做正確的事情，或者我們會為您帶來市場所能承受的一切。在這種情況下，市場通常會承受利率下行的壓力。

But I would tell you that any way a property owner or manager can save money, particularly in light of five years of upward pressure they are looking to try to capture that because they're a little bit kind of -- it's like a really -- they're just worn out with it. And so -- and I believe that people understand that at an intellectual level, but I don't think people understand it at an emotional level.

但我想告訴你，無論業主或經理如何省錢，特別是考慮到五年的上行壓力，他們都在試圖抓住這一機會，因為他們有點——真的——他們已經厭倦了。所以——我相信人們在理智層面上理解這一點，但我不認為人們在情感層面上理解這一點。

And so having said that, everybody is different, but I'm just saying there is a lot in there. And so we write a lot of business that way. And we have to face competition in many instances, that way. We have to earn the respect and trust of our customers every day. But please, Dean, don't think that that this is an ultra-competitive market where there is angst and there is more emotion around that buying decision than you can imagine.

儘管如此，每個人都是不同的，但我只是想說這裡面有很多東西。所以我們用這種方式開展了很多業務。在很多情況下，我們都必須面對競爭。我們必須每天贏得客戶的尊重和信任。但是，迪恩，請不要認為這是一個競爭異常激烈的市場，購買決策充滿了焦慮和情緒，超乎你的想像。

Got it. Yes. That makes sense. Sort of staying on the topic of submissions, but moving to casualty, sort of given that trajectory of like rate increases there. Like can you to just talk about the impact that's having on casualty line submission growth into the wholesale line?

知道了。是的。這很有道理。繼續討論提交的主題，但轉向傷亡，考慮到那裡費率增加的軌跡。您能否談談這對傷亡險線提交增長到批發線的影響？

Depends on what lines that you're talking about. Here's what I would say. There is still a net inflow into the E&S market today in aggregate, okay? So there are more accounts flowing in today than there have been. And we think that, that in the near to intermediate term will continue to occur. That said, the -- when we say casualty, casualty could be automobile. That's an admitted line up. And we continue to see rate increases been on automobile on a regular and recurring basis.

取決於你談論的是哪一行。以下是我想說的話。整體來看，今天 E&S 市場仍然呈現淨流入，好嗎？因此，今天流入的帳戶比以前多。我們認為，在近期到中期內，這種情況還會持續發生。也就是說，當我們說傷亡時，傷亡可能是汽車。這是公認的陣容。我們持續看到汽車費率定期、重複上漲。

So I know -- I think what you're trying to do is trying to figure out is it going into wholesale versus the retail or both or whatever the case may be, the answer is we're seeing more submissions into wholesale than we have. So increasing submissions, increasing written business in the non-admitted market, and that is exacerbated by events, some of which you read about and some maybe you don't read about, but it's areas that people become more and more uncomfortable with that could be hypothetically convective storms in places like Oklahoma and Nebraska and Kansas and things where they might have been in the admitted property market for a long time and/or the admitted property market wants massive deductibles or it goes into the E&S market.

所以我知道——我認為你想要做的是試圖弄清楚它是進入批發市場還是零售市場，或者兩者兼而有之，或者無論是哪種情況，答案是我們看到批發市場的提交量比我們擁有的要多。因此，提交的數量增加，非承認市場中的書面業務增加，而這種情況因一些事件而加劇，其中一些您讀到過，而有些您可能沒有讀到過，但人們越來越不舒服的領域可能是俄克拉荷馬州、內布拉斯加州和堪薩斯州等地的假設對流風暴，以及他們可能長期在承認房地產市場存在的事物，和/或承認房地產市場。

So I know that I'm talking property, but the same concept applies with casualty. So -- but the wholesale market continues to expand.

所以我知道我在談論財產，但同樣的概念也適用於傷亡。所以——但是批發市場仍在持續擴大。

And Dean, we talked about on a couple of calls. The thing to keep in mind, you always have to look about how the buyer thinks about it. While they are focused on rate online, what they're really focused on is their premium. And they're trying to figure out how to balance the premium because ultimately, they got to cut a check for that amount. And so they're trying to figure out what's the right balance with their retention that they want to keep through deductibles, et cetera. What limits do they want to buy.

我們和 Dean 已經在幾次通話中討論過這個問題了。要記住的是，您始終要考慮買家對此的看法。雖然他們注重的是線上費率，但他們真正關注的是保費。他們正在想辦法平衡保費，因為最終他們必須開出一張支票來支付這筆金額。因此，他們正在嘗試找出透過免賠額等方式保留的正確平衡點。他們想購買什麼限量版？

They're going to move or other exclusions, et cetera, they're going to move all of that around in order to figure out the premium. So you're not going to see that if rates go up 5% or down 5%, there's going to be a direct correlation in our commissions or potentially even direct correlation into the premium that the customer pays, okay?

他們會移動或其他排除等等，他們會移動所有這些以計算保費。所以你不會看到，如果利率上漲 5% 或下降 5%，我們的佣金會直接相關，甚至可能與客戶支付的保費直接相關，好嗎？

Okay. Yeah. Thank you.

好的。是的。謝謝。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Heleniak。

Yeah, good morning. Just wondering if you could talk about some of the organic hiring you've done in 2024 and the past few years, kind of how that's stacked up? Anything you can share on that? And has that been a big driver behind the organic growth? Just curious what's going on behind the scenes there in terms of that part outside of M&A?

是的，早安。只是想知道您是否可以談談您在 2024 年和過去幾年進行的一些有機招聘，以及這些招聘的情況如何？能分享一下嗎？這是否是推動有機成長的主要動力？只是好奇除了併購之外，幕後發生了什麼事？

So Scott, we don't discuss in detail how we hire teammates. However, I would tell you that we have been actively hiring for the last several years and through COVID in that regard. And that's teammates in all positions, service teammates, marketing teammates, production teammates, claims adjusting teammates, all types of teammates. And so we look at it as we want the best athletes on the team. And so we're -- it's the best athlete routine.

所以史考特，我們不會詳細討論如何聘用隊友。不過，我想告訴大家的是，過去幾年來，我們正在積極招募人才，尤其是在新冠肺炎疫情期間。這就是各個崗位的隊友，服務隊友、行銷隊友、生產隊友、理賠隊友，所有類型的隊友。因此，我們認為我們希望擁有最優秀的運動員加入隊伍。所以，這是最好的運動員套路。

We hire people from other industries that have made very, very successful transitions into our industry. We hire people with insurance background that could be carrier background or from other firms, and we obviously get a lot of very talented people through our acquisitions. But yes, we're very pleased with the acquisition, I mean, the hiring of new teammates that we've made in addition to the acquisitions we made last year.

我們聘請了從其他行業轉入我們行業的非常成功的人才。我們僱用具有保險背景的人員，他們可能是保險公司的背景，也可能來自其他公司，而且我們顯然透過收購獲得了許多非常有才華的人才。但是的，我們對這項收購感到非常高興，我的意思是，除了去年的收購之外，我們還聘請了新的隊友。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the captive business. I know you guys had guided to last quarter, $5 million to $10 million of claims cost. What did that come in for the quarter? Was it within that range? Or how -- what was the -- do you have that number?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只討論自保業務。我知道你們上個季度的索賠成本預計為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。本季取得了什麼成績？在那個範圍內嗎？或者如何——是什麼——您有這個號碼嗎？

Yeah, it was in that range.

是的，就在那個範圍內。

Okay. And then, I guess, the only question just on the captive was just to clarify. So you're saying you still see growth for 2025 and cap is just not at the same rate as before. Was that the comment that you had made before?

好的。然後，我想，關於俘虜的唯一問題只是為了澄清。所以您的意思是，您仍認為 2025 年會成長，只是上限速度與以前不同。這是您之前所發表的評論嗎？

Correct. Yes. Because remember, we write a target amount of premium in there. Again, there's more complexity behind, but that will -- we're just about at a run rate there.

正確的。是的。因為請記住，我們在其中寫下了目標保費金額。再次，這背後還有更多的複雜性，但那將會——我們只是在那裡處於運行速度。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO

Hey, thanks. Just one quick follow-up. Just curious -- sorry if I missed it, if you can touch on where the contingents kind of landed for Helene and Milton, if there are any adjustments in the quarter or adjustments you expect in the first quarter on that?

嘿，謝謝。只需快速跟進一次。只是好奇——如果我錯過了，很抱歉，您能否談談海倫和米爾頓的隊伍情況如何，本季度是否有任何調整，或者您預計第一季是否會進行調整？

Hi, Charlie. We had some adjustments back in the third quarter for Helene and then -- we had some adjustments in the fourth quarter for Milton. Nothing significant that we called out. And ultimately, we've got to see how loss development plays out there. and what that might mean for '25. And I think that's why we just have a little bit of cautionary outlook on those as well as what happens in California.

你好，查理。我們在第三季針對海倫做了一些調整，然後在第四季針對米爾頓做了一些調整。我們並沒有喊出什麼重要的事情。最後，我們必須觀察損失如何發展。以及這對'25 意味著什麼。我認為這就是為什麼我們對這些以及加州發生的事情持一點謹慎態度。

Thanks guys.

謝謝大家。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

This does conclude the Q&A session. I would now like to turn it back over to Powell Brown for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想將發言權交還給鮑威爾·布朗，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, Michelle. I wanted to thank everybody for your time today. We are really pleased with the performance of our business last year and equally excited about 2025. There are a lot of cool things going on at Brown & Brown, as you can tell. And I've said this before, but I am pumped on our performance last year and equally feel the same way about 2025 and beyond. Hope you all have a nice day, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter. Bye.

謝謝，米歇爾。我想感謝大家今天抽出時間。我們對去年的業務表現感到非常滿意，對 2025 年也同樣充滿期待。正如您所知，Brown & Brown 正在發生很多很酷的事情。我以前就說過，我對我們去年的表現非常滿意，對 2025 年及以後的表現也同樣有同樣的感受。祝大家有愉快的一天，我們期待下個季度與您交談。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。