Brown & Brown Inc (BRO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

morning, and welcome to the Brown & Brown, Inc. third quarter earnings call. Today's call is being recorded. Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and included -- and including answers given in response to your questions, may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature.

早上好，歡迎參加 Brown & Brown, Inc. 第三季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。請注意，本次電話會議期間討論的某些信息，包括與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片演示文稿中包含的信息，以及針對您的問題給出的答案，可能與未來的結果和事件相關，或具有前瞻性。

Such statements reflect our current views with respect to the future events, including those relating to the company's anticipated financial results for the third quarter and are intended to fall within the safe harbor provisions of the securities laws.

此類聲明反映了我們目前對未來事件的看法，包括與公司第三季預期財務業績相關的看法，旨在符合證券法的安全港條款。

Actual results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desired or referenced in any forward-looking statements made as such -- as a result of a number of factors. Such factors in the company's determination as it finalizes its financial results for the third quarter, that its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday, other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified and those risks and uncertainties identified from time to time in the company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

由於多種因素的影響，未來的實際結果或事件會受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，並且可能與當前預期或期望的或任何前瞻性陳述中引用的結果有重大差異。該公司在最終確定第三季度財務業績時確定的因素包括其財務業績與昨天發布的新聞稿中列出的當前未經審計的初步數據不同、該公司目前可能尚未確定或量化的其他因素以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中不時指出的風險和不確定性。

Additional discussion of these and other factors affecting the company's business and prospects as well as additional information regarding forward-looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

對影響公司業務和前景的這些因素和其他因素的更多討論以及有關前瞻性陳述的其他資訊包含在與本次電話會議相關的幻燈片簡報以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。我們不承擔任何更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的意圖或義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

In addition, there are certain non-GAAP financial measures used in this conference call. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company's website at www.bbinsurance.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then calendar of Events.

此外，本次電話會議也使用了某些非公認會計準則財務指標。非GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性GAAP 財務指標的調節表可以在公司的收益新聞稿中找到，也可以在公司網站www.bbinsurance.com 上的本次電話會議的投資者演示文稿中找到，方法是依序點擊「投資者關係」和「日曆」事件。

With that said, I'll now turn the call over to Powell Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.

話雖如此，我現在將把電話轉給總裁兼執行長鮑威爾布朗。你可以開始了。

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our Q3 earnings call. First, we'd like to state that our hearts go out to all those impacted by hurricanes Helene and Milton. These back-to-back storms were unprecedented in many ways and resulted in significant death and destruction throughout the Southeastern United States. We're committed to helping communities impacted by these events recover and return to normalcy over the coming weeks, months and years.

謝謝，凱文。大家早安，歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。首先，我們謹向所有受颶風海倫和米爾頓影響的人們表示同情。這些連續的風暴在許多方面都是前所未有的，導緻美國東南部地區出現重大死亡和破壞。我們致力於幫助受這些事件影響的社區在未來幾週、幾個月和幾年內恢復並恢復正常。

With that, let's transition to our performance for the quarter. We had an outstanding top and bottom line results. Our team continues to deliver for our customers, resulting in strong net new business, organic growth and margin expansion. I'll provide some high-level comments regarding our performance along with the updates on the insurance market and the M&A landscape. Andy will then discuss our financial performance in more detail. And lastly, I'll wrap up with some closing thoughts before we go to Q&A.

接下來，讓我們過渡到本季的業績。我們取得了出色的頂線和底線結果。我們的團隊持續為客戶提供服務，帶來強勁的淨新業務、有機成長和利潤擴張。我將就我們的業績以及保險市場和併購情勢的最新情況提供一些高級評論。然後安迪將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。最後，在進行問答之前，我將總結一些結束語。

Now let's discuss our results. I'm on slide 4. We delivered nearly $1.2 billion of revenue, growing 11% in total and 9.5% organically over the third quarter of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDAC margin improved by 30 basis points to 34.9%, and our adjusted earnings per share grew 12.3% to $0.91. On the M&A front, we completed four acquisitions with estimated annual revenues of $8 million. Overall, it was another great quarter as our team is focused on delivering the best solutions for our customers and strong results.

現在讓我們討論一下我們的結果。我在幻燈片 4 上。我們實現了近 12 億美元的收入，較 2023 年第三季整體成長 11%，有機成長 9.5%。我們調整後的 EBITDAC 利潤率提高了 30 個基點，達到 34.9%，調整後每股收益成長 12.3%，達到 0.91 美元。在併購方面，我們完成了四項收購，預計年收入為 800 萬美元。總的來說，這是另一個偉大的季度，因為我們的團隊專注於為客戶提供最佳的解決方案和強勁的業績。

I'm on slide number 5. In the countries where we primarily operate, there were no major changes in the economic conditions versus the first half of this year. Consumers are still spending and driving demand. As a result, businesses are continuing to hire and invest, albeit at a more moderate pace as compared to the last few years. Here in the US, we're seeing a bit more caution due to the uncertainty around the presidential election.

我在投影片 5 上。在我們主要開展業務的國家，經濟狀況與今年上半年相比沒有重大變化。消費者仍在消費並推動需求。因此，企業仍在繼續招募和投資，儘管與過去幾年相比步伐更為溫和。在美國，由於總統選舉的不確定性，我們看到了更謹慎的態度。

From an insurance pricing standpoint, rates for many lines continue to increase but at a slightly slower pace versus what we experienced in the first half of this year and the third quarter of last year. The line that had the largest change for the quarter was E&S property, which we'll talk about in more detail in just a moment.

從保險定價的角度來看，許多險種的費率持續上漲，但與今年上半年和去年第三季相比，成長速度略有放緩。本季變化最大的業務是 E&S 房地產，我們稍後將更詳細地討論該業務。

Pricing for employee benefits was similar to prior quarters with medical and primary cost trends up 7% and 9% for commission-based accounts. The continual upward rate pressure and the complexity of health care are driving strong demand for our employee benefits consulting businesses. Based on our historical and ongoing investments to expand our capabilities, we are well positioned to help companies of any size navigate this challenging market.

員工福利定價與前幾季相似，基於佣金的帳戶的醫療和主要成本趨勢分別上漲 7% 和 9%。持續的利率上漲壓力和醫療保健的複雜性正在推動對我們的員工福利諮詢業務的強勁需求。基於我們為擴大能力而進行的歷史和持續投資，我們有能力幫助任何規模的公司應對這個充滿挑戰的市場。

Rates in the admitted P&C markets were up 2% to 7% for most lines. The downward trend for workers' compensation remained, but there was moderation as we realized decreases of down 1% to 5% in most states. With the high level of employment, we expect this range to continue over the coming quarters.

對於大多數保險公司來說，已獲準的財產與意外險市場的費率上漲了 2% 至 7%。工人薪資的下降趨勢仍然存在，但有所放緩，因為我們發現大多數州下降了 1% 至 5%。由於就業水平較高，我們預計這一範圍將在未來幾季持續下去。

For the third quarter, rate increases for non-CAT property moderated and were in the range of flat to up 5%. For properties in convective storm zones, we did not see the same rate increases that we experienced in the first half of the year.

第三季度，非 CAT 財產的利率漲幅放緩，漲幅在持平至上漲 5% 之間。對於對流風暴區的房產，我們沒有看到與上半年相同的成長率。

For casualty, we continue to see rate increases for primary layers due to ongoing size of legal judgments in the US and to a lesser extent, higher levels of inflation. Consistent with the last few quarters, rates for excess casualty continue to increase between one in 10% or even more in some instances. Professional liability, we saw rates flat to up 5%.

對於傷亡事故，由於美國持續的法律判決規模以及較小程度的通貨膨脹水平較高，我們繼續看到初級保險費率上漲。與過去幾季一樣，超額傷亡率持續上升，在十分之一之間，在某些情況下甚至更高。專業責任險，我們看到費率持平至上漲 5%。

Shifting to the E&S markets. As you know, this year, some carriers and facilities have been willing to put up incremental limits on existing insurers and new business. While CAT property rates continue to increase slightly in the first quarter of this year, we started to see decreases later in the second quarter and into the third quarter.

轉向 E&S 市場。如您所知，今年，一些承運商和機構願意對現有保險公司和新業務設定增量限制。雖然 CAT 房地產價格在今年第一季繼續小幅上漲，但我們在第二季晚些時候和第三季開始看到下降。

On average, rates decreased between 10% and 20% as compared to the third quarter of last year. As a result, some customers increase their limits or modified deductibles and some just capture the savings. As we've mentioned before, moderate rate increases or decreases for one line of business will generally not have a material impact on the results of our company in total.

與去年第三季相比，平均利率下降了 10% 至 20%。因此，有些客戶提高了限額或修改了免賠額，而有些客戶則只是節省了費用。正如我們之前提到的，一項業務的適度利率上漲或下降通常不會對我們公司的整體業績產生重大影響。

In order to deliver consistently strong and industry-leading financial performance, we focus on diversification across lines of coverage, geography, industry and customer segment. On the M&A front, competition for high-quality businesses remained consistent with the first half of the year.

為了提供持續強勁且行業領先的財務業績，我們專注於跨覆蓋範圍、地理、行業和客戶群的多元化。併購方面，優質企業的競爭與上半年一致。

While the number of acquisitions by private equity backers decreased as interest rates rose, we're now starting to see higher levels of activity as interest rates are beginning to decrease. For the quarter, we continue to build relationships with many companies and remain focused on our disciplined M&A approach to identify great organizations, which align culturally and makes sense financially.

雖然私募股權支持者的收購數量隨著利率上升而減少，但隨著利率開始下降，我們現在開始看到活動水準更高。本季度，我們繼續與許多公司建立關係，並繼續專注於我們嚴格的併購方法，以識別在文化上一致且在財務上有意義的優秀組織。

I'm on slide 6. Let's transition to the performance of our three segments. Retail delivered 3.9% organic growth for the quarter with most lines of business performing well. We had another strong quarter for net new business but realize the impact of moderating rates for most lines as well as slightly lower growth in exposure units.

我在幻燈片 6 上。讓我們過渡到三個部分的表現。本季度零售業實現了 3.9% 的有機成長，大多數業務線表現良好。我們的淨新業務又經歷了一個強勁的季度，但我們意識到大多數業務費率放緩以及風險業務成長略有放緩的影響。

In addition, our organic growth was negatively impacted by over 100 bps resulting from the year-to-date true-up of certain incentive commissions as well as quarterly volatility in bond or nonrecurring revenue. Our team is performing really well and has good momentum going into Q4.

此外，由於年初至今某些激勵佣金的調整以及債券或非經常性收入的季度波動，我們的有機成長受到超過 100 個基點的負面影響。我們的團隊表現非常好，並且在進入第四季度時勢頭良好。

Programs delivered an outstanding result with organic growth of 22.8%. This growth was driven by a number of programs resulting from new business and expansion of existing customers. Our lender-placed business and captives performed very well, and our CAT programs continue to grow. It was another great quarter due to the diversity of our programs.

專案取得了出色的成果，有機成長 22.8%。這一成長是由新業務和現有客戶擴展所產生的一系列計劃所推動的。我們的貸方安置業務和自保業務表現非常出色，並且我們的 CAT 計劃持續成長。由於我們項目的多樣性，這又是一個偉大的季度。

Wholesale brokerage delivered another good quarter with organic revenue growth of 8.4%. This performance was driven by a combination of net new business and rate increases. Our open brokerage business continued to grow nicely but at a slower pace due to the decline in CAT property rates.

批發經紀業務再創佳績，有機收入成長 8.4%。這一業績是由淨新業務和費率成長共同推動的。我們的開放經紀業務繼續良好成長，但由於 CAT 房地產價格下降，成長速度有所放緩。

Our delegated authority business performed well again this quarter. Personal lines grew nicely driven by California and Texas. We're very pleased that our balanced mix between brokerage and delegated authority continues to drive strong and stable performance.

我們的授權業務本季再次表現良好。個人線路在加利福尼亞州和德克薩斯州的推動下得到了很好的發展。我們非常高興我們的經紀業務和授權之間的平衡組合繼續推動強勁而穩定的業績。

Now I'll turn it over to Andy to get into more results -- our financial results.

現在我將把它交給安迪來了解更多結果——我們的財務結果。

Thank you, Powell. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to review our financial results in some additional detail. When we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes or diluted net income per share, we're referring to those measures on an adjusted basis. The reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday.

謝謝你，鮑威爾。大家早安。我將更詳細地回顧我們的財務表現。當我們提到 EBITDAC、EBITDAC 利潤率、所得稅前收入或稀釋每股淨利潤時，我們指的是調整後的這些指標。我們的公認會計原則與非公認會計原則財務指標的調節可以在本簡報的附錄或我們昨天發布的新聞稿中找到。

We're over on slide number 7. We delivered total revenues of $1.186 billion, growing 11% as compared to the third quarter of 2023. Income before income taxes increased by 13.1%, and EBITDAC grew by 11.9%. Our EBITDAC margin was 34.9%, expanding by 30 basis points over the third quarter of the prior year.

我們已經完成了第 7 號投影片。我們的總營收為 11.86 億美元，較 2023 年第三季成長 11%。所得稅前收入成長 13.1%，EBITDAC 成長 11.9%。我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率為 34.9%，比去年第三季成長了 30 個基點。

Effective tax rate for the quarter decreased to 24.6% versus the third quarter of the prior year, which was 25.6%. The decrease was driven primarily by certain onetime items in the prior year and the impact of changes in the market value of our company-owned life insurance.

本季的有效稅率較去年第三季的 25.6% 下降至 24.6%。下降的主要原因是去年的某些一次性項目以及我們公司自有人壽保險市場價值變化的影響。

Diluted net income per share increased to $0.91 or 12.3%. Our weighted average shares outstanding increased slightly as compared to last year as we continue to prioritize paying down our floating rate debt. Our dividends paid per share increased by 13% as compared to the third quarter of 2023. Last week, our Board of Directors approved a 15% increase to our projected dividend payments for the fourth quarter of 2024. This represents our 31' consecutive annual increase. Overall, we are very pleased with our performance for the quarter and the strong results our team delivered.

稀釋後每股淨利潤增加至 0.91 美元，即 12.3%。由於我們繼續優先償還浮動利率債務，我們的加權平均流通股與去年相比略有增加。與 2023 年第三季相比，我們支付的每股股利增加了 13%。上週，我們的董事會批准將 2024 年第四季的預計股利支付增加 15%。這代表我們連續 31 年成長。總的來說，我們對本季的表現以及我們團隊的強勁成果感到非常滿意。

We're over on slide number 8. The Retail segment grew total revenues by 6.5%, with organic growth of 3.9%. The difference between total revenues and organic revenue was driven substantially by acquisition activity over the past year. EBITDAC decreased due to lower contingent and incentive commissions, higher non-cash stock based compensation as well as investments in teammates to drive and support our current and future growth.

我們已經完成了第 8 號幻燈片。零售部門總收入成長 6.5%，有機成長 3.9%。總收入和有機收入之間的差異很大程度上是由過去一年的收購活動造成的。EBITDAC 下降是由於意外佣金和激勵佣金的減少、非現金股票薪酬的增加以及對團隊成員的投資以推動和支持我們當前和未來的成長。

We're on slide number 9. Programs had another excellent quarter with total revenues increasing 15.7% and organic growth of 22.8%. Our organic growth was benefited by approximately $15 million associated with onboarding of new customers within our lender-placed business. This revenue will be recognized more evenly throughout 2025.

我們在第 9 號投影片。專案又一個出色的季度，總營收成長 15.7%，有機成長 22.8%。我們的有機成長得益於約 1500 萬美元與我們貸方安置業務中新客戶的入職相關。該收入將在 2025 年得到更均勻的確認。

Growth in total revenues was lower than organic due to net acquisition and disposition activity as well as lower contingent commissions. Our EBITDAC margin expanded by 360 basis points to 48.2%, driven by leveraging of our expense base and the sale of certain claims administration and adjusting services businesses in the fourth quarter of 2023.

由於淨收購和處置活動以及或有佣金較低，總收入成長低於有機成長。在利用我們的費用基礎以及 2023 年第四季出售某些索賠管理和調整服務業務的推動下，我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率擴大了 360 個基點，達到 48.2%。

Regarding the impact of the hurricanes, there are still a lot of unknowns primarily associated with Hurricane Milton. Our best estimate is that we anticipate recording flood claims processing revenue associated with the recent hurricanes of approximately $12 million to $15 million in the fourth quarter and then $18 million to $22 million in the first half of 2025 with the majority of that revenue being recorded in the first quarter. As of now, we're anticipating claims cost of $5 million to $10 million within our captives associated with Hurricane Milton.

關於颶風的影響，仍存在許多主要與颶風米爾頓相關的未知因素。我們的最佳估計是，預計第四季度與近期颶風相關的洪水索賠處理收入約為 1200 萬至 1500 萬美元，然後到 2025 年上半年將達到 1800 萬至 2200 萬美元，其中大部分收入記錄在第一季。截至目前，我們預計與米爾頓颶風有關的俘虜索賠費用為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。

We're over on to slide number 10. Our Wholesale Brokerage segment delivered another great quarter with total revenues increasing 14% and organic growth of 8.4%. The incremental expansion in total revenues in excess of organic was driven by acquisitions completed over the last 12 months and higher contingent commissions associated with finalizing the estimates recorded in the prior year.

我們已經到了第 10 號投影片了。我們的批發經紀業務部門再創佳績，總營收成長 14%，有機成長 8.4%。總收入的增量增長超過了有機收入，這是由於過去 12 個月完成的收購以及與最終確定上一年記錄的估計相關的或有佣金增加所致。

Our EBITDAC margin increased by 130 basis points to 38.6%, primarily due to higher contingent commissions and leveraging our expense base. We have a few comments regarding our capital structure, cash generation and outlook.

我們的 EBITDAC 利潤率成長了 130 個基點，達到 38.6%，這主要是由於或有佣金增加和利用我們的費用基礎。我們對我們的資本結構、現金產生和前景有一些評論。

In the third quarter, we paid off $500 million of our inaugural 10-year bonds with the proceeds from our issuance completed in the second quarter of this year. With our continued deleveraging, our balance sheet is in a great position as our gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio on a trailing 12-month basis is in line with our 10-year average.

第三季度，我們用今年第二季完成的發行收益償還了首期10年期債券的5億美元。隨著我們持續去槓桿化，我們的資產負債表狀況良好，過去 12 個月的總負債與 EBITDA 比率與 10 年平均值一致。

For the first nine months of this year, we had strong cash generation of over $810 million, increasing our ratio of cash flow from operations as a percentage of revenue to 22.4%. As it pertains to full year cash generation, we feel really good. We want to highlight that there is US federal tax relief associated with the recent hurricanes.

今年前 9 個月，我們的現金流量強勁，超過 8.1 億美元，營運現金流佔收入的比例提高到 22.4%。由於它涉及全年現金生成，我們感覺非常好。我們想強調的是，美國聯邦稅收減免與最近的颶風有關。

As a result, payments for the third and fourth quarters of this year are permissible to be deferred until the second quarter of next year. Therefore, our full year ratio of cash flow from operations as a percentage of total revenue for 2024 should be in the range of 24% to 26%. Based on our strong year-to-date performance and taking into consideration the potential impacts from Hurricane Helene and Milton, we anticipate our full year EBITDAC margin will be up at least 100 basis points for 2024 as compared to 2023.

因此，今年第三季和第四季的付款可以推遲到明年第二季。因此，我們2024年全年經營現金流量佔總收入的比例應在24%至26%之間。基於我們今年迄今為止的強勁表現，並考慮到颶風海倫和米爾頓的潛在影響，我們預計 2024 年全年 EBITDAC 利潤率將比 2023 年增長至少 100 個基點。

With that, let me turn it back over to Powell for closing comments.

說到這裡，讓我將其轉回給鮑威爾以供結束評論。

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we do not anticipate material changes from what we experienced through the first nine months of this year. The biggest questions that seem to be on the minds of business leaders here in the states which may impact their level of investment or the outcome of the US presidential election, geopolitical matters and the timing and magnitude of future interest rate reductions and inflation.

謝謝，安迪。很棒的報告。從經濟角度來看，我們預計今年前九個月的情況不會有重大變化。各州商界領袖考慮的最大問題可能會影響他們的投資水平或美國總統選舉的結果、地緣政治問題以及未來降息和通膨的時間和幅度。

From an admitted lines rate perspective, we anticipate rates in the fourth quarter and early '25 to be relatively similar or moderate downward slightly versus the third quarter of this year. For the E&S market, casualty and professional liability should be similar to what was experienced during the third quarter of 2024. For CAT property, it will come down to ultimate paid losses associated with Helene and Milton. We anticipate rate decreases from flat to down 10% going into the fourth quarter.

從公認的線路費率角度來看，我們預計第四季和 25 年初的費率將與今年第三季相對相似或略有下降。對於 E&S 市場，傷亡和專業責任應與 2024 年第三季的經驗類似。對於 CAT 財產來說，這將歸結為與 Helene 和 Milton 相關的最終已付損失。我們預計第四季利率將從持平降至下降 10%。

On the M&A front, we continue to feel good about our pipeline, both domestically and internationally. We're always building relationships with a lot of companies, and we have a strong capital position. We will continue our disciplined approach as it's worked very well to help us acquire great companies that enhance our capabilities and drive profitable growth.

在併購方面，我們繼續對國內和國際的管道感到滿意。我們始終與許多公司建立關係，並且擁有強大的資本實力。我們將繼續採用嚴格的方法，因為它非常有效地幫助我們收購了增強我們能力並推動獲利成長的優秀公司。

Lastly, we're excited to have the Quintes team join Brown & Brown and anticipate a closing in the fourth quarter. As we head into the fourth quarter, our team continues to be well positioned and is leveraging the power of we to win more net new business. We have great momentum across the company and feel good about our prospects for the fourth quarter and finishing the year strong.

最後，我們很高興 Quintes 團隊加入 Brown & Brown，並預計第四季結束。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們的團隊繼續處於有利地位，並正在利用我們的力量贏得更多的淨新業務。我們整個公司勢頭強勁，對第四季的前景和今年的強勁表現感到樂觀。

With that, we'll turn it back over to Kevin and open up for Q&A.

這樣，我們會將其轉回給凱文並進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

（操作員說明）Gregory Peters、Raymond James。

Well, good morning, everyone. I guess the instruction said I'm supposed to only ask one question, so I guess I'm going to focus my only question on the Retail segment. Powell and Andy ran through some variables that affected the organic in the third quarter. I'm wondering if you could provide some more detail on that. And if there's any read-through we should be thinking about as we look forward.

嗯，大家早安。我想指示說我應該只問一個問題，所以我想我將把我唯一的問題集中在零售領域。鮑威爾和安迪回顧了影響第三季有機成長的一些變數。我想知道您是否可以提供更多細節。如果有任何通讀，我們應該在展望未來時考慮。

Greg. Good morning and we appreciate your one question. Actually, we're not going to break it down into specific details. But what I would say is, as we said in the organic growth, there is really incentives -- the incentive commissions that are down, and we talked a little bit about nonrecurring onetime revenue that didn't occur like bonds and other related matters.

格雷格.早安，我們感謝您提出的一個問題。實際上，我們不會將其分解為具體細節。但我想說的是，正如我們在有機成長中所說的那樣，確實存在激勵措施——激勵佣金下降了，我們討論了一些非經常性一次性收入，這些收入不會像債券和其他相關事項那樣發生。

So from a standpoint of, we feel good about our Retail business, I think that's the important thing. I do not believe that one quarter creates a trend. And so I think you should take from that what you want, but we feel really good about our Retail business.

因此，從角度來看，我們對零售業務感覺良好，我認為這是重要的事情。我不相信一個季度就能創造一種趨勢。所以我認為你應該從中得到你想要的，但我們對我們的零售業務感覺非常好。

And then, Greg, the other thing just I guess for everybody else to keep in mind, remember, we've said in the past that normally, our business will grow faster -- the Retail business will grow faster in the first half of the year than the second half of the year.

然後，格雷格，我想其他人要記住的另一件事是，記住，我們過去說過，通常情況下，我們的業務會增長得更快——零售業務在上半年會增長得更快與去年下半年相比。

Last year was a little bit different just because of the timing of some of bonds and some surety work inside there. But if you look kind of back over historically, it normally grows faster in the first half and second, primarily due to the amount of employee benefits business that is recorded in the first quarter.

去年的情況略有不同，只是因為一些債券和內部擔保工作的時間表。但如果你回顧歷史，通常會在上半年和下半年成長更快，這主要是由於第一季記錄的員工福利業務量。

Got it. Thanks for the answer.

知道了。感謝您的回答。

Thanks Greg.

謝謝格雷格。

(Operator Instructions) Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指令）Rob Cox 與高盛。

Hey, thanks. I appreciate the flat to down 10% guide for property CAT rates. I was just curious if the product mix in wholesale is built to sustain nice growth in that type of environment? Or are we going to start seeing that show up a little bit more in the organic?

嘿，謝謝。我很欣賞房地產 CAT 費率持平至下降 10% 的指引。我只是好奇批發的產品組合是否能夠在這種環境下維持良好的成長？或者我們會開始看到這種情況在有機食品中出現得更多一些？

All right. So good morning, Rob and let me make one other clarifying comment on what I said. I believe that there is a great interest by the risk bearers, particularly domestically to hold rates more closer to flat. Having said that, there are new participants. There are other markets, specifically London, which is very aggressive and that's going to put additional pressure on that.

好的。早安，羅布，讓我對我所說的話再做一個澄清評論。我相信風險承擔者（尤其是國內風險承擔者）非常有興趣將利率保持在更接近水平的水平。話雖如此，又有新的參與者了。還有其他市場，特別是倫敦，它非常激進，這將給市場帶來額外的壓力。

So having said that, interestingly enough, our Q3 is not an inordinately heavy property quarter. The property is typically in Q1 and Q2 out of hurricane season. So again, it depends on the mix, but we have quite balanced brokerage and binding authority businesses. And what we're talking about is in brokerage, not necessarily in binding.

話雖如此，有趣的是，我們的第三季並不是房地產市場異常沉重的季度。該房產通常在第一季和第二季非颶風季節期間開放。同樣，這取決於組合，但我們擁有相當平衡的經紀業務和具有約束力的授權業務。我們談論的是經紀業務，不一定是綁定業務。

So what I would say is any time you have a rate decreases, it can. But from a standpoint of we're going to see what kind of discipline in the markets will adhere to in Q4, and what I'm about to say is purely speculative, remember, prior to the storms, we were seeing down 20% and 30%. And so we don't anticipate that, but anything is possible. I think it's a much higher probability is zero to 10.

所以我想說的是，任何時候利率下降都有可能。但從我們將看到第四季度市場將遵守什麼樣的紀律的角度來看，我要說的純粹是投機性的，請記住，在風暴之前，我們看到下跌了 20%， 30%。所以我們沒有預料到這一點，但一切都有可能。我認為從 0 到 10 的機率要高得多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Elyse Greenspan 與富國銀行。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. My question is going back to the Retail segment. So I guess that incentive comp, it sounds like a supplemental commission, which I think you guys started leaving in organic quite like a couple of years ago. So I just want to confirm that.

你好。謝謝。早安.我的問題回到零售領域。所以我想激勵補償，聽起來像是補充佣金，我想你們幾年前就開始有機地留下了。所以我只是想確認一下。

And then given that the one-off was 100 basis points, I know you guys don't typically like to guide, but Powell, you did say, right, one quarter doesn't make a trend. Is it the right way to think about it that some growth of around 5% is kind of like the baseline for the Q4 and beyond?

然後考慮到一次性利率是 100 個基點，我知道你們通常不喜歡指導，但鮑威爾，你們確實說過，對，四分之一不會形成趨勢。5% 左右的成長有點像第四季及以後的基線，這樣的思考方式是否正確？

Andy, you want to take that.

安迪，你想接受這個。

Yeah. So let me hit the first one because that's pretty easy. Yes. So on GSCs, so the guaranteed supplemental commissions and the incentive commissions are inside of organic growth. And as you know, those can move up and down by quarters just like the contingent commissions can adjust themselves inside of there. As you know, we don't give guidance for organic growth for the business.

是的。所以讓我點擊第一個，因為這很簡單。是的。對 GSC 來說，保證的補充佣金和激勵佣金屬於有機成長。如您所知，這些可以按季度上下移動，就像或有佣金可以在其中自行調整一樣。如您所知，我們不會為業務的有機成長提供指導。

But I think as we look into at least the fourth quarter, is we would at least think that -- one, we feel really good about our business and the net performance and how we're bringing in new business. A lot of it is going to come down to what happens to rates and then exposure units for the economy. So unless something goes unusual there, we would expect those two would be fairly similar to the third quarter.

但我認為，當我們至少審視第四季度時，我們至少會認為——第一，我們對我們的業務、淨業績以及我們如何引入新業務感到非常滿意。其中很大一部分將取決於利率以及經濟風險敞口單位的變化。因此，除非出現異常情況，否則我們預計這兩個季度將與第三季相當相似。

(Operator Instructions) Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

（操作員指示）Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies。

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. So my question is in the programs business. So I think you sold a portion of the captives to a third party and it's now coming back into consolidated through noncontrolling, through NCI. Can you maybe walk us through the impact to the programs segment itself, where that NCI in the programs business, namely, what would the adjusted margin be? And what would the organic growth be for that segment?

謝謝。大家早安。所以我的問題是關於節目業務的。因此，我認為您將一部分自保公司出售給了第三方，現在它又透過 NCI 的非控制權重新納入合併範圍。您能否向我們介紹 NCI 對專案業務本身的影響，即調整後的利潤率是多少？該細分市場的有機成長是什麼？

Well, morning Yaron, it has no impact on the organic growth or the margins. Remember, the noncontrolling interest is only on a pretax basis allocation over. So we record all of the gross up above and then back out the minority interest below.

嗯，早安，Yaron，這對有機成長或利潤率沒有影響。請記住，非控制權益僅在稅前基礎上分配。因此，我們將上面的所有總額記錄下來，然後在下面取消少數股東權益。

Right. So my question would be, what would the impact of the segment be had we adjusted that NCI at the segment level?

正確的。所以我的問題是，如果我們在細分市場層級調整 NCI，該細分市場會產生什麼影響？

I guess I would say it's kind of irrelevant because the accounting rules don't allow you to do it anyway. We're following what the rules are. You have to bring it in on a gross basis.

我想我會說這有點無關緊要，因為會計規則無論如何都不允許你這樣做。我們遵守規則。您必須按總量計入。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski with BMO.

（操作員說明）BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Morning. I guess for my one question, I want to focus on the programs segment. Growth has been exceptional for years now in the segment. And I think you gave some color too, that maybe this quarter's outsized growth was coming from catastrophe programs.

早晨。我想對於我的一個問題，我想專注於程序部分。多年來，該領域的成長一直非常出色。我認為您也給了一些解釋，也許本季的超額成長來自災難計畫。

But maybe just curious, is there -- when we think of like the wholesale marketplace, we think about that marketplace over long periods of time, typically growing a bit faster than the standard market due to some underlying kind of secular factors. Just curious, in your programs business, is there anything structural or secular? Or you think this is just -- should grow at a multiple of the standard markets over time.

但也許只是好奇，當我們想到批發市場時，我們會在很長一段時間內考慮該市場，由於某種潛在的長期因素，通常會比標準市場增長得更快一些。只是好奇，在你的節目業務中，有什麼結構性的或世俗的東西嗎？或者您認為這應該隨著時間的推移在標準市場的倍數上成長。

All right. Good morning, Mike. So let's think about that. Most of our programs -- many, I shouldn't say most, are admitted, okay? So think of that as an extension of the specialty admitted market as opposed to the traditional wholesale or non-admitted market. I think that's an important distinction upfront. That's number one.

好的。早上好，麥克。那麼讓我們考慮一下。我們的大多數課程——很多，我不應該說大多數，都被錄取了，好嗎？因此，可以將其視為專業授權市場的延伸，而不是傳統的批發或非授權市場。我認為這是一個重要的區別。這是第一名。

Number two, I believe there will continue to be interest and emphasis on the programs business going forward. Depending on what you read and what you believe, the program space is somewhere between $85 billion and $100 billion of premium in the United States. And so we do continue to see that growing nicely into the future.

第二，我相信未來的節目業務將繼續受到關注和重視。根據您所讀到的內容和您所相信的內容，該計劃在美國的溢價空間在 850 億美元到 1000 億美元之間。因此，我們確實會繼續看到它在未來的良好發展。

And there are a number of very talented underwriters that want to join us either from a risk bearer or sometimes from other programs because there is a dynamic environment here, where we have fostered great relationships with our carrier partners. And remember, we are underwriting on behalf of. We are, as we understand it, the largest delegated underwriting authority entity in the United States. And so they place carriers place enormous authority in our hands of which we take very seriously.

有許多非常有才華的承銷商希望從風險承擔者或有時從其他計劃加入我們，因為這裡有一個充滿活力的環境，我們與承運商合作夥伴建立了良好的關係。請記住，我們是代表承保。據我們了解，我們是美國最大的授權承保實體。因此，他們讓營運商將巨大的權力交給我們，我們對此非常重視。

So is the growth going to continue in the 20% range? That's over a long period of time, that's quite high, all right? Let's call it what it is. But what I would say is we believe that the programs space is a very nice consistent grower over a long period of time, and our results would indicate as such.

那麼成長會持續在20%的範圍內嗎？這已經是很長一段時間了，相當高了，好嗎？我們就這麼稱呼它吧。但我想說的是，我們相信該計劃空間在很長一段時間內是一個非常好的持續增長者，我們的結果也表明了這一點。

And it's interesting, because -- and I know this isn't the case with you, Mike, but there are some people out there that really don't -- I don't think, fully understand or give us credit for the other than Retail part of our business, which is 40% of the revenue. And as you know, it is performing very nicely. So if you want to look at it on a slightly different perspective, and I know you've already thought about this, but if you look at the performance of wholesale and programs together, that 40% grew at 17.7% in Q3. Pretty impressive.

這很有趣，因為——我知道麥克，你的情況並非如此，但有些人確實不——我認為，完全理解或給予我們其他人的信任零售部分是我們業務的一部分，佔收入的 40%。如您所知，它的性能非常好。因此，如果你想從稍微不同的角度來看待它，我知道你已經考慮過這一點，但如果你一起看批發和項目的表現，你會發現第三季度的 40% 增長到了 17.7%。相當令人印象深刻。

I mean I do think people -- when they look at programs and wholesale, they do look at Orion as a comp. But can I -- I'll stick to my one question, but a follow-up on your answer on the same topic. Would it be a fair assumption to say that underwriters that come to Brown or just a broker-owned programs business are -- can be compensated more highly than what a carrier can pay given valuation dynamics?

我的意思是，我確實認為人們——當他們查看程序和批發時，他們確實將 Orion 視為一個比較。但我可以——我會堅持我的一個問題，但會跟進你對同一主題的回答。假設說，在給定估值動態的情況下，來到布朗的承銷商或只是經紀人擁有的計劃業務可以比承運人支付更高的報酬，這是一個公平的假設嗎？

You mean to the individual, the compensation?

你指的是對個人的補償嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Well, I think the compensation is typically different because it can be cash, a base plus a bonus in many instances, plus equity. So generally, it's -- I think that as a broad statement, you could probably say yes.

嗯，我認為薪酬通常是不同的，因為它可以是現金，在許多情況下可以是基本工資加上獎金，再加上股權。所以總的來說，我認為作為一個廣泛的陳述，你可能會說是。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Andy, you had mentioned that you generated $15 million in revenue from onboarding new customers and programs, and that would be spread more evenly throughout 2025. Is any of that $15 million nonrecurring? And can you give us a sense of when you say spread more evenly, are there any kind of bumps or tough comps as we think about 2025 in the lender-placed business?

是的，謝謝。早安，安迪，您曾提到您透過新客戶和新專案獲得了 1500 萬美元的收入，並且該收入將在 2025 年更加平均分配。這 1500 萬美元中是否有任何非經常性資金？您能否讓我們了解一下，當您說更均勻地分佈時，當我們考慮 2025 年貸款人放置的業務時，是否會出現任何障礙或艱難的競爭？

Yeah. Good morning Mark. So how that works is when we pick up a new account or we have a customer that buys a portfolio, normally, there is a lag of anywhere from 90 to 180 days from the previous servicer of actually sending out notifications. And I think so what happens is you generally will get two to three quarters of revenue in kind of the first quarter that we onboard them.

是的。早上好，馬克。因此，當我們選擇新帳戶或有客戶購買投資組合時，通常情況下，與先前的服務商實際發送通知相比，會有 90 到 180 天的延遲。我認為，發生的情況是，在我們加入他們的第一季度，您通常會獲得兩到四分之三的收入。

Then when it comes around to renewal or the ex date, then that revenue will fall accordingly. And that's really what we're saying, is next year, in the third quarter, we would not anticipate seeing that $15 million but that will be spread out during '25 with most of it in kind of the first half of the year. Does that help kind of explain how that works?

然後，當續約或除息日到來時，收入將相應下降。這正是我們所說的，明年第三季度，我們預計不會看到 1500 萬美元，但這將在 25 年期間分攤，其中大部分在今年上半年。這有助於解釋它是如何運作的嗎？

It does. The second half of my one question is anything on the advocacy business? Have you seen the Social Security Administration be a little more active on adjudicating claims.

確實如此。我的一個問題的後半部是關於宣傳業務的嗎？您是否看到社會安全管理局在裁決索賠方面更加積極一些？

No. Everything has pretty similar to what we've been seeing over the last few years. We've got good inflow into our business, but only so much comes out of the back of the funnel.

不。一切都與我們過去幾年所看到的非常相似。我們的業務有大量資金流入，但從漏斗後面流出的資金卻有限。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)Alex Scott with Barclays.

（操作員說明）亞歷克斯·斯科特與巴克萊銀行。

Hi, I wanted to ask you to provide more color on the M&A pipeline, in particular, the comments around interest rates beginning to come down and more interest from private equity players. And could you talk about the potential size of those opportunities and where you're focused on growing inorganically?

您好，我想請您提供有關併購管道的更多信息，特別是有關利率開始下降的評論以及私募股權投資者的更多興趣。您能否談談這些機會的潛在規模以及您重點關注的無機成長領域？

Sure. So as it relates to the first part of the comment, as interest rates -- prior to interest rates going up, there were typically lots of private equity firms that expressed interest. And obviously, they think of it in a little different manner in terms of the way they account for it and look at those investments.

當然。因此，由於它與評論的第一部分有關，在利率上升之前，通常有許多私募股權公司表達了興趣。顯然，他們的思考方式和看待這些投資的方式略有不同。

Then -- and so there might have been 10 firms that were involved initially, just as an example. And then as the interest rates ticked up, that number being involved might have slowed to three firms. These are very hypothetical situations. And then today, there might be six or seven firms so what I'm trying to give you a sense of is that as interest rates go down, there are more interested parties that are short term in nature in terms of the way they view it, i.e., private equity.

那麼，作為一個例子，最初可能有 10 家公司參與其中。然後，隨著利率上升，涉及的公司數量可能會減至三家。這些都是非常假設的情況。然後今天，可能有六到七家公司，所以我想讓你們感覺到，隨著利率下降，有更多的利益相關者從他們的角度來看本質上是短期的，即私募股權。

As it relates to us, we continue to look both here domestically, which we think there are some very good opportunities for us here in the future and in the international markets that we currently operate in and as evidenced by the fact that we anticipate closing Quintes in the Netherlands this quarter that's another market that we're excited about participating in on a go-forward basis.

就我們而言，我們繼續關注國內市場，我們認為未來我們在這裡以及我們目前經營的國際市場上都有一些非常好的機會，我們預計關閉 Quintes 的事實就證明了這一點本季度在荷蘭，這是我們很高興能夠繼續參與的另一個市場。

So there's not one over another, we stress the importance of cultural fit. We think about capabilities. We think about either enhancing existing capabilities, adding new capabilities or maybe a new geography as long as it's consistent with the core, which is, one, we want it to fit culturally and make sense financially. And two, we like to operate in countries that we understand their governments. There's typically a rule of law, there's generally a stable economy. And we're very pleased with the environment that we're currently operating in.

所以沒有一個比另一個更重要的，我們強調文化契合的重要性。我們考慮的是能力。我們考慮增強現有能力，增加新能力，或者可能是新的地理位置，只要它與核心一致，即，我們希望它在文化上適合併在財務上有意義。第二，我們喜歡在我們了解其政府的國家開展業務。通常有法治，經濟通常穩定。我們對目前的營運環境非常滿意。

Got it, Thanks for the clarification.

明白了，謝謝您的澄清。

(Operator Instructions) Meyer Shields with KBW.

（操作員說明）帶有 KBW 的 Meyer 防護罩。

Great. Thanks so much. I just want to go back to the lender-placed insurance in program. Should we think of that $15 million -- I think you said there was a 90 to 120-day lag. So is the $15 million the equivalent of like three of revenue? Or is that a full year? And did that impact margins in the segment?

偉大的。非常感謝。我只想回到貸款人在計劃中安排的保險。我們是否應該考慮那 1500 萬美元——我想您說過有 90 到 120 天的滯後。那麼這 1500 萬美元相當於收入的三倍嗎？或者說是一整年？這是否影響了該細分市場的利潤率？

So let's see. The -- it represents over about six months of revenue or just a little bit more on that, Meyer, again, primarily in the first half of 2025. Some of it will reach into the fourth quarter as it kind of comes around just normal lag in processing, taking it over from the previous processor. And then from a full year margin, no, it doesn't impact full year margins. It's just between the quarters.

那麼讓我們來看看。邁耶，它代表了大約六個月的收入，或者只是多一點點，主要是 2025 年上半年的收入。其中一些將持續到第四季度，因為它只是正常的處理滯後，從以前的處理器接管。然後從全年利潤率來看，不，它不會影響全年利潤率。就在季度之間。

Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

好的，完美。太感謝了。

(Operator Instructions) Grace Carter with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）格蕾絲·卡特 (Grace Carter) 與美國銀行。

Hi, everyone. Good morning. The 10-Q mentioned some pressure on contingents and retail from higher loss ratios at carrier partners. I think that this is the second quarter in a row that we've seen that. Could you elaborate on which lines caused the pressure in 3Q and how this compares to 2Q? And just kind of any thoughts on whether you think that this will be an issue that recurs moving forward for the next few quarters?

大家好。早安.十季提到營運商合作夥伴較高的損失率給特遣隊和零售業帶來了一些壓力。我認為這是我們連續第二個季度看到這種情況。您能否詳細說明哪些線路造成了第三季的壓力以及與第二季相比如何？您是否認為這將是未來幾季再次出現的問題？

Good morning, Grace, yes, we've been talking about this over probably the last few quarters at least. We saw the starting back in '23. It's primarily on the auto side, both on personal as well as on commercial. I think, as you know well, carriers have been pushing for rate in that space just because of frequency and severity of the claims that are out there, which is putting pressure on overall profitability.

早安，格蕾絲，是的，我們至少在過去幾個季度一直在討論這個問題。我們在 23 年就看到了首發。主要是在汽車方面，無論是個人還是商業。我認為，正如您所知，運營商一直在提高該領域的費率，只是因為索賠的頻率和嚴重程度，這給整體盈利能力帶來了壓力。

And that -- so that's the main driver. I guess we would say right now, we don't see anything in the marketplace yet that is changing that trend at this stage. So we would continue to expect some pressure on those.

這就是主要驅動力。我想我們現在會說，我們在市場上還沒有看到任何東西正在改變現階段的趨勢。因此，我們預計這些方面將繼續面臨一些壓力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）RBC Capital Markets 的 Scott Heleniak。

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Just wondering if you could expand on the employee benefits business. I know you gave some commentary on that. It sounds like you're seeing some positive trends on health care. So just wondering if you can just talk about the trends in Q3 versus the first half and just the opportunity for 2025, just organically and through M&A and what you're seeing in that business?

是的，謝謝。早安.只是想知道您是否可以擴大員工福利業務。我知道你對此發表了一些評論。聽起來您在醫療保健方面看到了一些積極的趨勢。因此，我想知道您是否可以談談第三季度與上半年的趨勢以及 2025 年的機會，透過有機方式和併購以及您在該業務中看到的情況？

So Scott, what I would say is, remember, in the last -- I'm taking you back a little while, but in the last 10 years, we have consciously invested in additional capabilities, which has enabled us as an organization to basically handle any size customer and employee benefits. And so what that means is we can write a start-up. And if they grow one day to 100,000 employees, we can actually handle them at 100,000 employees.

所以斯科特，我要說的是，記住，在最後 - 我讓你回過頭來，但在過去的十年裡，我們有意識地投資於額外的能力，這使我們作為一個組織基本上能夠處理任何規模的客戶和員工福利。這意味著我們可以創辦一家新創公司。如果他們有一天增加到 10 萬名員工，我們實際上可以用 10 萬名員工來處理他們。

And so remember, our core business is middle market and upper middle market. And the capabilities that we bring to the table, we see lots of opportunities today and in the future and are very excited about the growth opportunities for us.

因此請記住，我們的核心業務是中端市場和中高端市場。憑藉我們帶來的能力，我們看到了今天和未來的許多機會，並對我們的成長機會感到非常興奮。

And so it's something that health care -- every CFO wants to talk about their cost of health care. And there are lots of things that we are able to bring to our customers and prospects that will enable them to think differently and potentially realize different and in some instances, outsized positive performance versus what they have been experiencing.

因此，這是醫療保健的問題——每個財務長都想談論他們的醫療保健成本。我們能夠為我們的客戶和潛在客戶帶來很多東西，使他們能夠以不同的方式思考，並有可能實現與他們所經歷的不同的、在某些情況下，巨大的積極績效。

So we are actively looking for additional firms to join the team. But even in light of if we did not do an acquisition with employee benefit capabilities in them in the next 12 months, I don't think that in any way, shape or form changes our opinion on existing business and employee benefits. Andy and I and the entire operating team are very, very pleased and quite honestly, very excited about our ability to write and service customers of all sizes.

因此，我們正在積極尋找更多公司加入團隊。但即使考慮到我們在未來 12 個月內沒有進行具有員工福利功能的收購，我也不認為這會以任何方式、形式改變我們對現有業務和員工福利的看法。安迪和我以及整個營運團隊對我們為各種規模的客戶提供服務和服務的能力感到非常非常高興，說實話，非常興奮。

Great. Appreciate the detail.

偉大的。欣賞細節。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Meredith of UBS.

（操作員指令）UBS 的 Brian Meredith。

Yeah, thanks. Just a quick one for me. Do you anticipate any impact on contingent commissions from Milton and Helene in the fourth quarter?

是的，謝謝。對我來說只是一個快速的。您預計第四季米爾頓和海倫的或有佣金會受到什麼影響嗎？

Good morning, Brian, I think still kind of to be determined. In our earlier comments, we said there's still a lot of moving parts on Milton. We did have some adjustments in the third quarter for Helene, not dissimilar to where we're back in '22 with Ian. We take the best estimate that we can based on what we know at the time. So would it -- would we expect some adjustments in the fourth quarter?

早上好，布萊恩，我認為還有待確定。在我們之前的評論中，我們說過米爾頓仍然有很多變化。我們確實在第三季度對 Helene 進行了一些調整，這與我們在 22 年對 Ian 的調整沒有什麼不同。我們根據當時所知做出最佳估計。那麼我們預計第四季會進行一些調整嗎？

Yeah, that probably will occur. Now again, keep in mind that we had -- we did have adjustments positively in Q4 of last year because of low claim activity, so -- and that's primarily in the program space. So you will see probably some meaningful year-over-year change in there. I don't know the magnitude of it right now, just we need some claims development to occur.

是的，這可能會發生。現在再次請記住，由於索賠活動較低，我們在去年第四季度確實進行了積極調整，因此，這主要是在計劃領域。因此，您可能會看到其中出現一些有意義的同比變化。我現在不知道它的嚴重程度，只是我們需要一些索賠進度。

Hey, Brian, I'd like to just point out two things that might not be as immediately comes to mind. Number one, we saw and continue to see a lot of auto losses in the storms, particularly Helene, but Milton as well. So you've got a car in a garage and flood waters come up and the car dies, okay? So it doesn't work anymore. And I'm not even talking about electric vehicles, I'm just saying that. That's number one.

嘿，布萊恩，我只想指出兩件可能不會立即浮現在我腦海中的事情。第一，我們看到並將繼續看到暴風雨中大量汽車損失，特別是海倫，但米爾頓也是如此。所以你的車庫裡有一輛車，洪水來了，車子就死了，好嗎？所以它不再起作用了。我甚至不是在談論電動車，我只是這麼說。這是第一名。

Number two, depending on where you are, there is a very, very distinct correlation between structures, commercial and residential that are built after 2005 and the amount of loss. So there are new codes, as you know, that were put in place, quite honestly, if you go back to 1992 with Hurricane Andrew. And then every couple of years, it seems that they've kind of upped them.

第二，根據您所在的位置，2005 年後建造的商業和住宅建築與損失金額之間存在非常非常明顯的相關性。所以，如你所知，如果你回到 1992 年安德魯颶風，老實說，已經制定了新的法規。然後每隔幾年，他們似乎就會進步一些。

But if you talk to people in the market about losses on properties, those losses are typically on structures that are there in the '90s, in the '80s and the '70s and the '60s. You get into older homes in the 30s and the 40s, they're not the ones having losses. They're actually very -- they're very solid structures. But it's that kind of middle stuff where the building codes maybe weren't as stringent. So just a little aside, just to kind of give you a little color around your question

但如果你與市場上的人談論房產損失，這些損失通常發生在 90 年代、80 年代、70 年代和 60 年代的結構上。你走進 30 多歲和 40 多歲的老房子，他們並不是遭受損失的人。它們實際上是非常——它們是非常堅固的結構。但正是這種中間的東西，建築規範可能沒那麼嚴格。順便說一句，只是為了給你的問題提供一些色彩

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）格雷戈里·彼得斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Okay. I get my follow-up question. In your commentary on free cash flow, you talked about some deferred tax payments that will help the free cash flow result for '24. Should we anticipate that because you're going to have additional tax payments from '24 and '25 on top of just the '25 that the conversion rate on the '25 free cash flow will be lower?

好的。我得到了我的後續問題。在您對自由現金流的評論中，您談到了一些遞延稅款，這將有助於 24 年的自由現金流結果。我們是否應該預期，由於除了 25 年之外，您還要從 24 年和 25 年支付額外的稅款，因此 25 年自由現金流的轉換率會較低？

Yeah, Greg, that would be correct. And as of right now, the rules by the IRS is those need to be paid in the second quarter. So when you're working on your projections, and you can get a pretty good idea of our taxes, they run somewhere between $90 million to $100 million per quarter in there. So just make sure you put those in the second quarter. So that will pull down our conversion for '25. And that's why we made the comment that we raised the conversion ratio for '24 up because of that deferral.

是的，格雷格，這是正確的。截至目前，美國國稅局的規定是需要在第二季支付。因此，當您進行預測時，您可以很好地了解我們的稅收，其中每個季度的稅收金額在 9000 萬美元到 1 億美元之間。因此，請確保將它們放在第二季。因此，這將降低我們 25 年的轉換率。這就是為什麼我們評論說，由於推遲，我們提高了 24 小時的轉換率。

And the conversion rate for '24 is raised from -- can you just remind me?

'24 的轉換率是從 -- 您能提醒我一下嗎？

Yeah, we said 22% to 24% previously. So this will take it up by a couple of percentage points. But when we look at the business and if you recall awhile back when we were talking about conversion ratio, and we talked about 2025, is we said we saw kind of a very clear path back to the 24% to 26% range. That was prior to the storm coming through.

是的，我們之前說過 22% 到 24%。因此，這將使其增加幾個百分點。但當我們審視業務時，如果你還記得不久前我們談論轉換率時，我們談論的是 2025 年，我們說我們看到了一條回到 24% 至 26% 範圍的非常清晰的路徑。那是在暴風雨來臨之前。

But when we look at the overall business itself, and how we're growing the business, the margins that we generate and our free cash flow conversion, we feel really, really good about the business and the trajectory. It's just a timing of items back and forth, sometimes between years. But underlying business, it continues to be very, very strong.

但當我們審視整體業務本身，以及我們如何發展業務、我們產生的利潤以及我們的自由現金流轉換時，我們對業務和發展軌跡感覺非常非常好。這只是專案來回的時間安排，有時是幾年之間。但基礎業務仍然非常非常強勁。

Thanks for answering the question,

感謝您回答問題，

Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

伊麗絲‧葛林斯潘與富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. My follow-up is actually on investment income. That went up by a good amount in the quarter. Andy, what drove that? And then is that level like -- as rates move, how should we think about I guess, the level of NII that you're expecting in the Q4 and going forward?

你好，謝謝。我的後續其實是投資收益。本季這一數字大幅上升。安迪，是什麼推動了這一點？然後，隨著利率的變化，我猜我們應該如何考慮您在第四季度和未來預期的 NII 水平？

Sure. So one thing to keep in mind, remember, the $600 million of bonds that we issued back in the second quarter. So we were holding that money until we had paid off the September bonds. So that drove somewhere an incremental $6 million to $7 million of interest income for the quarter. So don't use the $31 million or so that we had in the quarter as a run rate, it will definitely come back down in the second quarter and then -- or excuse me, in the fourth quarter.

當然。所以要記住一件事，記住我們在第二季發行的 6 億美元債券。所以我們一直持有這筆錢，直到我們還清九月的債券。因此，該季度的利息收入增加了 600 萬至 700 萬美元。因此，不要使用我們本季的 3100 萬美元左右作為運行率，它肯定會在第二季度回落，然後——或者對不起，在第四季度回落。

I'd like to clarify something. Elyse, I would like to clarify something that you asked earlier. And you're correct in saying that we do not give organic growth guidance as you know. However, what we said was you had asked about a number in Q4. And what Andy and I were implying or trying to say was, if you look at the performance in Q3 and you note the adjustments that we made, we believe that, that is a good starting place for Q4. I wanted to make sure that was clear for you. Does that make sense?

我想澄清一些事情。Elyse，我想澄清一下你之前問的一些問題。如您所知，您說我們沒有提供有機成長指導是正確的。然而，我們說的是你在第四季度詢問過一個數字。安迪和我暗示或試圖說的是，如果你看看第三季的表現，並注意到我們所做的調整，我們相信，這是第四季的一個好起點。我想確保你清楚這一點。這樣有道理嗎？

Yeah. So the 3.9% plus the 100 basis points or around 5% is the Q4 starting point for Retail.

是的。因此，3.9% 加上 100 個基點或 5% 左右是零售業第四季的起點。

I was going to allow you to do the math, and we don't give guidance, but I just wanted to clarify.

我本來打算讓你做數學計算，我們不提供指導，但我只是想澄清一下。

Okay. Got it.. Thank you, Powell.

好的。知道了..謝謝你，鮑威爾。

And then Elyse, just kind of rounding out on the net investment income because I think it's probably also important that we talk about kind of the other side of that. And again, you can kind of get a feel for -- in modeling, if rates drop by 1%, an idea as to what it could mean on the net investment income.

然後，Elyse，只是對淨投資收入進行了四捨五入，因為我認為我們討論另一面可能也很重要。再說一次，你可以在建模中感受到，如果利率下降 1%，這對淨投資收入意味著什麼。

Now again, keep in mind that as we continue to grow as an organization, there's more fiduciary cash. So you're not going to see it on an exact ratio if you do that, right? Because you got to assume that fiduciary assets will continue to grow.

現在再次請記住，隨著我們作為一個組織的不斷發展，將會有更多的信託現金。所以如果你這樣做的話，你不會看到精確的比例，對嗎？因為你必須假設信託資產將繼續成長。

But then also keep in mind on the other side of that is our floating rate debt. So as an organization, we built our capital structure to have somewhere around 25% of our debt to be floating rate. It's been extremely, extremely beneficial for creating shareholder value over many years. And so when we -- at the end of [930], we had just under $800 million on floating rate debt. So just make sure you grab that on the other side of the equation, if you're doing your ups and downs on interest, okay?

但也要記住，另一方面是我們的浮動利率債務。因此，作為一個組織，我們建立了資本結構，使大約 25% 的債務採用浮動利率。多年來，這對於創造股東價值非常非常有益。因此，在 [930] 年底，我們的浮動利率債務略低於 8 億美元。所以，如果你在利息上起起落落，請確保你抓住了等式的另一邊，好嗎？

Okay. Thank you, both.

好的。謝謝你們，兩位。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes with True Securities.

（操作員指令）Mark Hughes 與 True Securities。

Thank you. You mentioned margin impact from the investment in teammates. Given that the M&A market has been, at least in Q3, your activity was a little bit lower. Is that a deliberate plan to spend more money on teammates? Or was that more opportunistic?

謝謝。您提到了對隊友的投資對利潤率的影響。考慮到併購市場，至少在第三季度，您的活動略低一些。這是故意要給隊友多花錢嗎？或者這更有機會主義？

I look at it as more opportunistic, Mark. And the reason I say that is when we find the right people, we're going to invest in them. And so that's why I always try to say that one quarter or -- doesn't make a trend. And when we make those investments, we fully anticipate that we will grow into those investments in the coming quarters and years ahead.

我認為這更具機會主義色彩，馬克。我這麼說的原因是，當我們找到對的人時，我們就會對他們進行投資。這就是為什麼我總是試圖說四分之一或——不會成為一種趨勢。當我們進行這些投資時，我們完全預計我們將在未來幾季和未來幾年內進行這些投資。

And so if it were something very significant in terms of a number, we would call it out and talk to you about it. But from this standpoint, we -- this is what I call normal opportunistic investing. We're not going to beat some drum and say we've got some program. It's not like that. We're always looking for good people. We believe that culturally, we will attract a certain group of people that would like to work for a competitive, collaborative, high-performing sales and service organization. But there's not something -- there's not some secret initiative going on. That's -- I don't want to give you that impression.

因此，如果它在數字方面非常重要，我們會指出並與您討論。但從這個角度來看，我們——這就是我所說的正常機會主義投資。我們不會敲鼓說我們已經有一些計畫了。事情不是那樣的。我們一直在尋找優秀的人。我們相信，在文化上，我們將吸引一群願意為具有競爭力、協作性、高績效的銷售和服務組織工作的人。但沒有什麼——沒有什麼秘密行動正在進行。那就是——我不想給你這種印象。

Appreciate that. Thank you.

很欣賞這一點。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO.

（操作員說明）Michael Zaremski，BMO。

Great. Just a follow-up on kind of teasing out what you all are seeing or projecting on the casualty side in terms of pricing power trends? I know that -- I think last quarter, you all and maybe many others thought that pricing would move up a bit. Has that changed at all? And I don't know if you want to bifurcate between E&S or admitted versus non-admitted.

偉大的。只是梳理一下大家在定價能力趨勢方面所看到或預測的傷亡情況的後續行動？我知道——我想上個季度，你們所有人，也許還有許多其他人都認為價格會上漲一點。這有什麼改變嗎？我不知道你是否想在 E&S 或錄取與非錄取之間進行區分。

Sure. All right. So Mike, number one, if you remember, in the past, I have sort of said in my career, which is only back to 1990 in the insurance business, there's always been an underlying tone that casualty has been underpriced, but I don't think there's been a discipline around pricing it by the carriers. Today, that seems to be different. So there seems to be a discipline around that.

當然。好的。所以，麥克，第一，如果你還記得的話，在過去，我在我的職業生涯中曾說過，這只是回到1990 年的保險業，一直有一種潛在的基調，即傷亡被低估，但我不這麼認為。今天，情況似乎有所不同。所以這似乎是有紀律的。

And so I believe it's both in the primary and the excess, I believe it's also in admitted and non-admitted. So it's not something that we are bifurcating that you're seeing more so in one versus the other. That's not the case.

所以我相信它既存在於初級中，也存在於超額中，我相信它也存在於錄取和非錄取中。因此，我們並沒有將某些事情一分為二，你在其中一個方面看到的比另一個方面更是如此。事實並非如此。

And so I think that we're going to continue to see rate pressure on casualty, so general liability, excess liability and as Andy said earlier, in automobile, both commercial and personal auto. For the time being, I don't see that changing. Depending on the carrier, they're going to tell you different trends they're seeing in their books. But yes, there continues to be pressure on all of those segments.

因此，我認為我們將繼續看到傷亡事故的費率壓力，因此一般責任、超額責任以及正如安迪之前所說的，在汽車領域，無論是商用汽車還是個人汽車。目前，我認為這種情況不會改變。根據運營商的不同，他們會告訴您他們在書中看到的不同趨勢。但是，是的，所有這些領域仍然面臨壓力。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Powell for any closing remarks.

女士們先生們，今天電話會議的問答部分到此結束。我想將會議轉回鮑威爾發表閉幕詞。

Sure. Thanks, Kevin. We really appreciate everybody's time today. We are very pleased with the performance in Q3. We're excited about Q4, ending the year strong and going into 2025. You all have a wonderful day. Thank you for your time.

當然。謝謝，凱文。我們非常感謝大家今天抽出時間。我們對第三季的表現非常滿意。我們對第四季感到興奮，今年將強勁結束並進入 2025 年。你們都度過了美好的一天。感謝您抽出時間。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。