英國石油 (BP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, everybody, to bp's first-quarter 2025 results call. We'll be focusing today's call on the first-quarter performance and the contents of the video that I hope many of you will have seen by now.

歡迎大家參加 bp 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。今天的電話會議我們將重點討論第一季的業績和視訊內容，我希望你們中的許多人現在已經看過了。

Let me first, though, hand over to Murray for a few brief opening remarks.

不過，首先請容許我把時間交給莫瑞，讓他發表一些簡短的開場白。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

Today marks the first quarter since we laid out a reset strategy, and we are delivering on our priorities at pace. We delivered strong operational performance in 1Q with over 96% refining availability and more than 95% upstream plant reliability, supporting record operating efficiency. In upstream, we have successfully started up three major projects: Cypre in Trinidad, Raven Infill in Egypt, and GTA in Mauritania and Senegal. That adds 100 mbd of capacity on our target of 250 mbd by 2027.

今天是我們制定重置策略以來的第一個季度，我們正在快速實現我們的優先事項。我們在第一季實現了強勁的營運業績，煉油可用性超過 96%，上游工廠可靠性超過 95%，支援了創紀錄的營運效率。在上游，我們已成功啟動三個重大計畫：特立尼達的Cypre、埃及的Raven Infill、茅利塔尼亞和塞內加爾的GTA。這將使我們的產能在 2027 年達到 2.5 億桶/天的目標基礎上增加 10 萬桶/天。

We made six exploration discoveries, including in the Gulf of America, Trinidad, Egypt, and a significant discovery in Namibia. And our Customers business delivered a strong quarter with the best first quarter since 2020 on an underlying RCOP basis.

我們取得了六項勘探發現，包括在美國灣、特立尼達、埃及以及納米比亞的一項重大發現。我們的客戶業務本季表現強勁，以基礎 RCOP 計算，創下 2020 年以來第一季最佳表現。

Underlying pre-tax earnings met consensus. Gas & Low Carbon missed, primarily due to a weak gas trading result, but we saw strong performance from Customers & Products, which beat consensus. We recognize and continue to monitor market volatility and are focused on what we can control. We have taken a $1.5 billion intervention around cash flow for 2025.

基本稅前收益符合預期。天然氣和低碳業務表現不佳，主要是由於天然氣交易結果疲軟，但我們看到客戶和產品業務表現強勁，超出了預期。我們認識到並持續監控市場波動，並專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們已為 2025 年的現金流投入了 15 億美元。

We continue to optimize our investment plans and have reduced CapEx by $0.5 billion in 2025 down to $14.5 billion. Excluding the inorganic payment for bp Bunge, organic CapEx is now below $14 billion in 2025. And with $1.5 billion of completed or signed divestment agreements year to date, we now expect $3 billion to $4 billion in divestments for 2025, with proceeds weighted to the second half.

我們繼續優化投資計劃，並將 2025 年的資本支出減少 5 億至 145 億美元。不計入對英國石油邦吉公司的無機支付，2025 年的有機資本支出將低於 140 億美元。今年迄今為止，已完成或簽署了 15 億美元的撤資協議，我們預計 2025 年的撤資規模將達到 30 億至 40 億美元，收益將集中在下半年。

We're also making strong progress with the strategic review of Castrol with significant interest in the business. And we have made good progress in costs, with underlying operating expenditure down $500 million quarter on quarter. We'll provide more color on cost reductions at 2Q results.

我們對嘉實多的策略評估也取得了重大進展，對該業務非常感興趣。我們在成本方面取得了良好進展，基本營運支出較上月下降了 5 億美元。我們將在第二季業績中提供更多有關成本削減的資訊。

Finally, and as we guided in our trading statement, net debt rose in the quarter, primarily due to the working capital build. However, we expect the majority of that to unwind through the year in a flat price environment.

最後，正如我們在交易聲明中指出的那樣，本季淨債務增加，主要是由於營運資本的增加。然而，我們預計，在價格平穩的環境下，其中大部分將在全年內消退。

In summary, operations are running well, creating a strong foundation, with our financial results resilient. We have an ambitious growth plan that we're focused on delivering at pace. And that is what we need to keep building on quarter in and quarter out.

整體而言，公司經營運作良好，奠定了堅實的基礎，財務表現維持韌性。我們有一個雄心勃勃的成長計劃，我們專注於快速實現這一計劃。這就是我們需要在每個季度中不斷努力的方向。

Back to you, Craig.

回到你身邊，克雷格。

Thanks, Murray. (Event Instructions) We've got a number of people on the call today to get through. We will look to close the call by 2:00 PM. And of course, the IR team is available for any follow-up.

謝謝，默里。（活動說明）今天我們有許多人需要接聽電話。我們將爭取在下午 2:00 之前結束通話。當然，IR 團隊可以隨時進行任何後續跟進。

So with that, let's get started. I'm going to go to the States to start off this morning, this afternoon, and we'll take the first question from Steve Richardson. Steve, good morning. Maybe we don't have Steve.

那麼，讓我們開始吧。今天上午和下午我將前往美國，我們將回答史蒂夫理查森提出的第一個問題。史蒂夫，早安。也許我們沒有史蒂夫。

Doug Leggate, Wolfe.

道格·萊格特，沃爾夫。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Looks like we've got a bit of audio problems. What I'm going to try and do then, maybe there's a connection problem with the US, we'll maybe come back to the UK.

看起來我們的音訊出了點問題。那麼我要嘗試做的是，也許與美國的連結存在問題，我們也許會回到英國。

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許史東。

Okay. We seem to be having some audio problems on the Q&A. If everybody on the line can hear me, if you can just hold as we try and rectify the problems, just bear with us, please.

好的。我們的問答環節似乎遇到了一些音訊問題。如果電話裡的每個人都能聽到我的聲音，如果你們能稍等片刻，我們會盡力糾正問題，請耐心等待。

I do understand sound may have come back as well. I do understand sound may be back as well. So maybe if we deal with those first two questions.

我確實知道聲音可能也恢復了。我確實知道聲音也可能會恢復。所以也許我們可以先處理前兩個問題。

Fantastic. Kate, why don't you lead off on those two? Apologies for the sound issues, team.

極好的。凱特，你為什麼不先談談這兩個問題呢？團隊，對於聲音問題深感抱歉。

Yeah, will do, Murray. Thank you.

是的，我會的，莫瑞。謝謝。

Okay. We're being asked to repeat the two questions from Biraj. First one, trying to unpack the weakness in Gas & Low Carbon. Beyond trading, what is driving the higher non-cash costs? Should we consider this run rate for the rest of the year, or is there a one-off element?

好的。我們被要求重複 Biraj 提出的兩個問題。首先，試著解開天然氣和低碳領域的弱點。除了交易之外，還有哪些因素導致非現金成本上升？我們是否應該考慮今年剩餘時間的運行率，或者是否存在一次性因素？

And the second question was on share count. It went up despite the $1.75 billion buyback. Can you walk through the bridge here and how much of it relates to reinvent bp share option plans, Kate?

第二個問題是關於股份數量。儘管回購金額達到 17.5 億美元，但股價仍上漲。凱特，您能介紹一下這座橋嗎？它與重塑 bp 股票選擇權計劃有多少關係？

Yeah, thank you. And hello, Biraj. Sorry, I can't hear your voice today, and apologies for these issues.

是的，謝謝。你好，Biraj。抱歉，今天我聽不到你的聲音，對於這些問題我深感抱歉。

In terms of the non-cash items going through the Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment this quarter, quarter on quarter, we've got about $200 million of higher non-cash items. So DD&A is higher. Obviously, we've got the startup of Raven Infill. So that was delivered ahead of schedule, which was a great performance by the team.

就本季天然氣和低碳能源部門的非現金項目而言，與上一季相比，我們的非現金項目增加了約 2 億美元。因此 DD&A 較高。顯然，我們已經有了 Raven Infill 的新創公司。所以提前完成了任務，這是團隊的出色表現。

There were also some positive non-cash items in 4Q, which we haven't obviously seen again in 1Q. They were unique to the fourth quarter. So in terms of the quarter-on-quarter delta, I think that's a little bit different because of the one-offs that you've seen going through 4Q versus 1Q. In terms of the DD&A rate going forwards, that's probably a decent run rate with regard to the startup of Raven.

第四季也出現了一些積極的非現金項目，而這些項目在第一季顯然沒有再出現過。它們是第四季獨有的。因此，就季度環比增長而言，我認為這略有不同，因為第四季度與第一季相比存在一次性變化。就未來的 DD&A 利率而言，對於 Raven 的新創公司來說，這可能是一個不錯的運作率。

Turning to share count, the end-of-the-quarter share count reduction was actually slightly down. In terms of the Reinvent, I can't break that out for you at this moment. As we've said before, the Reinvent options have a six-year vesting period. And it's quite hard to forecast the extent and the timing of which that may impact our share count. I think a lot of it is going to be driven by human behavior with regard to what's going on in terms of the share price and other factors.

從股票數量來看，季度末股票數量的減少量實際上略有下降。關於 Reinvent，我目前無法為您詳細說明。正如我們之前所說，重塑選擇權的歸屬期為六年。而且很難預測這會對我們的股票數量產生多大程度的影響以及影響的時間。我認為，在很大程度上，這將會受到人類行為的影響，包括股價和其他因素的變動。

What I can say is that, of course, we will continue to offset dilution related to employee share plans over time, as we always have done. And so far, since 2021, we've reduced our total share count by about 22%. And that remains our intent going forward to offset employee share plan impacts over time.

我可以說的是，當然，我們會像往常一樣，繼續抵消與員工持股計劃相關的稀釋。到目前為止，自 2021 年以來，我們的股票總數已減少了約 22%。我們的目標仍然是隨著時間的推移抵消員工持股計畫的影響。

Josh Stone, UBS.

瑞銀的喬許史東。

Thanks, Craig. And good afternoon, Murray. Good afternoon, Kate.

謝謝，克雷格。下午好，默里。下午好，凱特。

Murray, in the video, you talked about a very strong operational performance this quarter, and I think you should be commended for that. But when I look at your cash flow statement, that strong performance at least doesn't seem to be coming through yet. So maybe just expand a little bit on the difference between your production performance and your cash flow performance and what gives you some confidence that that can actually get better through this year. Some discussion maybe on gas trading and costs would be helpful. But maybe if there's any other line items you think we should be paying attention to that's driving some of that mismatch in the first quarter.

莫瑞，在影片中，您談到了本季非常強勁的營運表現，我認為您應該為此受到讚揚。但當我查看你的現金流量表時，這種強勁的表現似乎至少還沒有顯現出來。因此，也許可以稍微擴展一下您的生產績效和現金流績效之間的差異，以及是什麼讓您有信心今年的情況會有所好轉。關於天然氣交易和成本的一些討論可能會有所幫助。但也許還有其他項目值得我們關注，而這些項目正是造成第一季出現部分不符的原因。

And then a second question for Kate. I noticed another issuance of hybrids of about $500 million this quarter. It looks to be sort of light source. But just remind us how you're thinking about the hybrid balance this year and the timing of when you might start to redeem some of these bonds. Thanks.

然後第二個問題問凱特。我注意到本季又發行了約 5 億美元的混合債券。它看起來像是一種光源。但請提醒我們，您如何考慮今年的混合餘額以及何時開始贖回部分債券。謝謝。

Yeah. Josh, nice to hear your voice. Thanks. Sorry for the technical difficulties this morning, this afternoon.

是的。喬希，很高興聽到你的聲音。謝謝。抱歉，今天上午和下午出現了技術故障。

As far as conversion from earnings into cash flow, it's helpful to look at EBITDA and we continue to provide EBITDA to you so you can see that. I think the principal issue we have in the quarter is obviously a working capital build. That's something we signaled to you both at Capital Markets Day and the trading statement. We've had a seasonal build in working capital as we fill up our refineries ahead of the driving season and the flying season across 2Q, 3Q, and 4Q. So we'd expect the majority of that working capital to unwind, and you'd start to see that coming through through the rest of the year, assuming a flat price environment.

就將收益轉換為現金流量而言，查看 EBITDA 會很有幫助，我們會繼續向您提供 EBITDA，以便您了解這一點。我認為本季我們面臨的主要問題顯然是營運資金的累積。我們在資本市場日和交易聲明中都向你們表達了這個訊號。由於我們在第二季、第三季和第四季的駕駛季節和飛行季節之前就填滿了煉油廠，因此我們的營運資金出現了季節性成長。因此，我們預計大部分營運資金將會減少，假設價格環境平穩，你會在今年剩餘時間內看到這種情況的發生。

As far as gas trading, yeah, as signaled, a weak gas trading, oil was average. You'll remember that we aim for a 4% earnings return on trading across the five years, and we have the same aim this year. Very, very volatile trading circumstances in the first quarter. The oil side did well to hit average. And then the gas side caught out a little bit on European regulation changes, and you should expect us to get back to normal on that in the future. You should expect average performance out of us on gas.

就天然氣交易而言，是的，正如所暗示的，天然氣交易疲軟，石油交易表現一般。您會記得，我們​​的目標是在未來五年內實現 4% 的交易收益回報率，今年我們的目標也是一樣。第一季的交易環境非常非常不穩定。石油方面表現良好，達到平均。然後，天然氣方面因歐洲法規變化而出現了一些問題，你應該期待我們將來能夠恢復正常。您應該期望我們在天然氣方面表現平均。

So I hope that helps on cash flow conversion, and we feel confident in our plans to grow cash flow from [$8 billion to $14 billion] across the next three years. And it's been a great operational start for the teams.

因此，我希望這有助於現金流轉換，我們對未來三年將現金流從 [80 億美元增加到 140 億美元] 的計劃充滿信心。對於團隊來說，這是一個很好的營運開始。

Kate, over to you on the other question.

凱特，另一個問題交給你回答。

Yeah, thank you. I think you also asked about cost, Josh. I think I counted three questions nested in there, but let me quickly talk about costs.

是的，謝謝。喬希，我想你也問過成本問題。我認為其中有三個問題，但讓我快速談談成本。

So making incredible progress with regard to our $4 billion to $5 billion cost reduction program, very much building on the progress that we started in 2024, where we delivered $800 million of structural cost reductions and $300 million of absolute reductions through the year. Quarter on quarter, we are already $500 million lower in terms of our absolute cost base. So that's good progress, and we can talk more on subsequent questions, I'm sure, in terms of how we're getting after this and what more we're going to deliver.

因此，我們在 40 億至 50 億美元的成本削減計劃方面取得了令人難以置信的進展，這在很大程度上建立在我們 2024 年開始的進展的基礎上，當時我們全年實現了 8 億美元的結構性成本削減和 3 億美元的絕對成本削減。與上一季相比，我們的絕對成本基礎已經降低了 5 億美元。這是很好的進展，我相信我們可以就後續問題進行更多討論，例如我們將如何取得進展以及我們還將提供什麼。

Turning to hybrids, yes, you're correct. We did issue $500 million. This is really just bridge financing for us as we think about bringing in a partner in Lightsource bp. This $500 million of hybrids is only in place until the beginning of next year. They mature in 2026. And my overall strategy with regard to hybrids remains completely unchanged from what I said at Capital Markets Day. I do not intend to grow the stack of the $12 billion group hybrids at all.

談到混合動力，是的，你是對的。我們確實發行了 5 億美元。當我們考慮引入 Lightsource bp 合作夥伴時，這對我們來說實際上只是過橋融資。這筆價值 5 億美元的混合資金只能維持到明年年初。它們將於2026年成熟。我關於混合型投資的整體策略與我在資本市場日所說的完全沒有變化。我根本不打算增加價值 120 億美元的集團混合基金的規模。

And as we step towards each maturity window, we have the first one between June and September this year and the next one in 2026, then we'll be very thoughtful with regard to our cash flows and whether or not we want to take advantage of the ability to reduce that hybrid stack by up to 10% each year. Obviously, we're capped to a maximum of 25% reduction on a cumulative basis by the rating agencies, but we will think about that as and when we get to each maturity window, Josh.

當我們走向每個到期窗口時，第一個到期窗口是今年 6 月至 9 月之間，下一個到期窗口是 2026 年，然後我們會非常認真地考慮我們的現金流，以及我們是否想利用每年將混合堆疊減少高達 10% 的能力。顯然，評級機構對我們累積減幅的限制為最多 25%，但我們會在每次到期時考慮這一點，喬希。

Got it. Thanks for the comments.

知道了。感謝您的評論。

Thank you, Josh. We're going to go back to the US where we tried to start. I'd just note, Steve and Doug, you were on the call list. I don't see you there again. So if you want to try and dial in again if you've got a question, please do.

謝謝你，喬希。我們將回到我們嘗試開始的地方——美國。我只是想指出，史蒂夫和道格，你們在通話名單上。我再也沒有在那裡見到你。因此，如果您有問題並想嘗試再次撥號，請這樣做。

Roger Read, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的羅傑‧里德 (Roger Read)。

Yeah. Good morning. Good afternoon. So I'd just like to maybe start off bpx. We've had, obviously, commodity prices come down on the oil side. They've remained pretty favorable on the gas side. It's too soon after the late February Investor Day to announce big changes, but maybe just get a feel for how you're looking at it, how this fits within the range of expectations, and what you would think about in terms of either increasing activity on the gas side, like the Haynesville, or pulling back at all in Eagle Ford or the Permian with oil closer to 60 here.

是的。早安.午安.所以我只是想從 bpx 開始。顯然，石油等大宗商品的價格已經下降。他們對天然氣方面仍然保持著相當好的態度。二月下旬投資者日過後，現在宣布重大變化還為時過早，但也許可以先了解一下您對此的看法，了解這是否符合預期範圍，以及您是想增加天然氣方面的活動，例如 Haynesville，還是完全撤回 Eagle Ford 或 Permian 的活動，因為這裡的油價接近 60。

Yeah, great. Roger, thanks very much. I'll take those.

是的，很棒。羅傑，非常感謝。我會接受這些。

On bpx, our plans remain unchanged for now. We continue to think about investing $2.5 billion this year. I think we've got 9 or 10 rigs active right now across the basins. We'll closely monitor this. If oil price stays low, of course, we'll moderate our plans and switch over into gas. But for now, we plan to keep it pretty tight.

關於bpx，我們的計劃目前保持不變。我們繼續考慮今年投資 25 億美元。我認為我們目前在各個盆地有 9 到 10 個活躍的鑽井平台。我們將密切關注此事。當然，如果油價保持低位，我們就會調整計劃並改用天然氣。但就目前而言，我們計劃保持嚴格。

Like you, I'm getting somewhat optimistic on gas pricing. The demand for natural gas is pretty high, and production needs to flow, and new drilling needs to start to help that production flow to fill up the LNG plants and to fill up the other demand that's coming through in the US. Our Haynesville position, our Eagle Ford position are well positioned for that, very close to market, and very little differentials.

和您一樣，我對汽油價格也有些樂觀。天然氣的需求量相當高，生產需要流動，需要開始新的鑽探來幫助生產流動，以填滿液化天然氣工廠並滿足美國的其他需求。我們的海恩斯維爾 (Haynesville) 位置和鷹福特 (Eagle Ford) 位置都處於有利地位，非常接近市場，而且差異很小。

So in time, we think we'll grow that gas position, the drilling inside that gas position. Right now is not quite the right time, and we'll just keep this tightly under review as we watch what unfolds with the hydrocarbon pricing.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們認為我們將擴大該天然氣部位，並擴大該天然氣部位內的鑽探。現在還不是合適的時機，我們將密切關注碳氫化合物定價的進展。

Thanks, Roger.

謝謝，羅傑。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Roger. We're going to stay in the US. Doug, I see you managed to rejoin. Over to you, please.

謝謝你，羅傑。我們將留在美國。道格，我看到你成功重新加入。請交給你了。

Excellent. Okay, good. I'm just glad it wasn't a screw-up on my end. But anyway, Murray, I wonder if I could hit the disposal target. You've nudged it up a little bit for this year. Small, obviously, but you've got a big number out there. It seems to us, at least, when we walk through the waterfall of the potential disposal candidates, it seems you could far exceed that $20 billion number. And I realize it's very early days, but I wonder if I could ask you to frame how you've risked that number in terms of -- is there an upside case and maybe put a range around what that might look like over time?

出色的。好的，很好。我很高興這不是我的失誤。但無論如何，莫瑞，我不知道我是否能夠達到處置目標。今年你已經將它稍微提高了一點。顯然，數量很少，但數量卻很大。至少在我們看來，當我們瀏覽潛在處置候選資產的瀑布時，似乎可以遠遠超過 200 億美元這個數字。我知道現在還為時過早，但我想知道我是否可以請您描述一下您是如何承擔這個數字的風險的——是否存在上行情況，是否可以給出一個範圍，看看隨著時間的推移這個數字會變成什麼樣子？

Yeah, great. Doug, thanks very much.

是的，很棒。道格，非常感謝。

As you say, we have very high-quality assets, and transactions are not slowing down right now. Obviously, we've got $1.5 billion behind us in the first quarter, which is fantastic. We're uppering our range to 3% to 4% based on the strength we see in the conversations on the retail positions that we're looking at, as well as the refining position. And obviously, we've launched Castrol as well. I feel it's a well-underpinned plan. I can't give you it's risk. We'll deliver the $20 billion. We have lots of options around that.

正如您所說，我們擁有非常優質的資產，而且目前交易並沒有放緩。顯然，我們在第一季就獲得了 15 億美元的收入，這真是太棒了。根據我們在討論中所看到的零售部位以及煉油部位的實力，我們將範圍上調至 3％至 4％。顯然，我們也推出了嘉實多。我覺得這是一個有充分依據的計畫。我不能給你它的風險。我們將提供200億美元。我們對此有很多選擇。

I think for now, given that we're only one quarter in, I wouldn't be guiding to upside. I think we just need to start to get more track record on that and see how the process goes. But I'm very confident in it. It is a number that we will hit, much like the net debt target is a number we will hit. And there's lots of interest inside the assets that we see, especially as interest rates fall here in Europe. They may not be falling in the US yet, but as interest rates fall in Europe, people are looking for yield, and our assets are good for yield.

我認為就目前而言，考慮到我們只進入了一個季度，我不會預測上行趨勢。我認為我們只需要開始獲得更多有關該問題的記錄並觀察其進展。但我對此非常有信心。這是一個我們能夠達到的數字，就像淨債務目標是我們能夠達到的數字一樣。我們看到，人們對這些資產的興趣很大，尤其是歐洲利率下降的時候。美國的利率可能還沒有下降，但隨著歐洲利率下降，人們正在尋求收益，而我們的資產有利於收益。

So we continue with our strong process. We feel very good about the $20 billion number. We've got strong progress and strong interest inside Castrol, and we keep moving forward, Doug.

因此，我們將繼續推進我們的強勁進程。我們對 200 億美元這個數字感到非常滿意。道格，我們在嘉實多內部取得了長足的進步，並且引起了濃厚的興趣，我們會繼續前進。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Murray. I wonder if I could risk a quick follow-up. It's also on bpx. A little selfishly, you recently dissolved the JV with Devon. There seems to be conflicting data out there as to what it means for bpx.

謝謝，默里。我想知道我是否可以冒險進行快速跟進。它也在bpx上。有點自私的是，你最近解除了與 Devon 的合資關係。關於這對 bpx 意味著什麼，似乎存在著相互矛盾的數據。

I think Enervis had a report out the other day saying you guys got the better side of the deal, but Devon suggests that the capital costs come down dramatically with them operating. So I wonder if you could offer your perspective on that and whether it impacts the 650,000 barrels a day target in 2030. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

我認為 Enervis 前幾天發布了一份報告，說你們在這筆交易中佔了上風，但 Devon 表示，隨著他們的運營，資本成本將大幅下降。所以我想知道您是否可以對此發表看法，以及這是否會影響 2030 年每天 65 萬桶的目標。我就把它留在那裡。謝謝。

No impact to the 650 kbd target for now. We really like the transaction. We got more production early on. That's why it adds more value, and I think that's what you're referencing in the Enervis report that has been put out.

目前對 650 kbd 目標沒有影響。我們真的很喜歡這筆交易。我們很早就獲得了更多的產量。這就是它能增加更多價值的原因，我認為這也是您在已發布的 Enervis 報告中提到的內容。

Now, I think there's a different philosophy between ourselves and some companies on what you do in the Lower 48. Our focus is on creating as much NPV as we possibly can for the dollars we spend, whereas some operators simply focus on cost; that's not what we do.

現在，我認為我們和一些公司對於在美國本土 48 州開展業務有著不同的理念。我們的重點是利用我們花費的資金盡可能創造淨現值，而一些營運商只專注於成本；這不是我們所做的。

And again, if you look at Enervis, and they benchmark us across all of our three basins, we are best in class on NPV per dollar spent, and that's about getting more resources for the dollar we spent on a relative ratio. That applies in the Permian. That applies in the Haynesville and here in the Eagle Ford as well.

再說一次，如果你看看 Enervis，他們會根據我們所有的三個盆地對我們進行基準測試，你會發現我們在每花費一美元的淨現值方面是同類中最好的，也就是說，按照相對比率，我們花費的每一美元都能獲得更多的資源。這適用於二疊紀。這也適用於海恩斯維爾和鷹福特。

I think the principal difference between the two companies is we believe in three strings to capture more resource. I think Devon believes in two strings to minimize cost. So they're right. They'll spend less on the wells, on the casing strings, et cetera, but again, the benchmarking is showing that using the technology we do -- matter pressure drilling, insulated drill pipe, and drilling automation -- our teams are keeping the cost relatively consistent.

我認為兩家公司之間的主要區別在於我們相信三條線路可以獲得更多的資源。我認為 Devon 相信兩條線可以最大程度地降低成本。所以他們是對的。他們在油井、套管柱等方面的花費會減少，但基準測試再次表明，使用我們所做的技術——物質壓力鑽井、絕緣鑽桿和鑽井自動化——我們的團隊可以保持成本相對穩定。

So I think benchmarking will tell over time who's right on this, and it's very transparent under the US system, but we remain confident given our track record that we've got a great team, they're doing great work, and we're very, very focused on value for dollars, not just dollars. So we love the deal and we look forward to seeing the results of it, and we shall challenge ourselves on benchmarking to make sure that we continue to be the best in the basins in which we operate in the way that we think about it.

因此，我認為基準測試會隨著時間的推移告訴我們誰在這件事上是正確的，而且在美國體系下這非常透明，但根據我們的過往記錄，我們仍然有信心，我們擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們正在做著出色的工作，而且我們非常非常注重金錢的價值，而不僅僅是金錢。因此，我們喜歡這筆交易，並期待看到它的結果，我們將在基準測試方面挑戰自己，以確保我們繼續以我們所想的方式在我們運營的盆地中做到最好。

Hope that helps, Doug.

希望這能有所幫助，道格。

It does. Thanks a lot, Murray.

確實如此。非常感謝，默里。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Good afternoon. Two questions, actually, please. On refining and trading side, if I think about that business, looking at the numbers, about $13 million of operating profit despite what is 96% uptime, and assuming it's a positive contribution from trading, it does still suggest that the refining business is loss-making, even with that good number operationally. So I guess the question is, is that a concern, and how quickly can you actually get that back to where it should be? And I suspect that'll link in a little bit to the cost side.

午安.實際上，請問有兩個問題。在煉油和貿易方面，如果我考慮這項業務，看看這些數字，儘管正常運行時間為 96%，但營業利潤仍有約 1,300 萬美元，並假設這是來自交易的積極貢獻，這仍然表明煉油業務處於虧損狀態，即使運營數字良好。所以我想問題是，這是否是一個令人擔憂的問題，以及你實際上可以多快將其恢復到應有的水平？我懷疑這會與成本方面有一點關聯。

And then the second one, just around the Head of Strategy role. What do you gain from not having that role in place now, and how do you make sure you respond quickly to changing circumstances? I think part of the criticism so far has been that the pivot back to what you're doing now didn't happen as quickly as it could have done. So just that idea of how do you make sure that you can pivot that, that you can -- you'll center check in that kind of flexibility side of it. Thanks.

第二個是關於戰略主管角色的。現在沒有這個角色對您有什麼好處？您如何確保對不斷變化的情況做出快速反應？我認為到目前為止的部分批評是，你沒有像現在這樣迅速地恢復到現在所做的事情。所以，你的想法是，如何確保你可以調整它，你可以——你將集中檢查它的靈活性方面。謝謝。

Yeah. Lydia, I think on the Head of Strategy role, we'll continue to have a Head of Strategy, the person will just report into Kate, it'll be much more tightly integrated into planning and actuals. And that role continues to be very important. I'm just not choosing to have that role on my leadership team. But Kate will ably be able to help us navigate all the twists and changes in the external world. And the team will remain in place to help us with that.

是的。莉迪亞，我認為在策略主管角色方面，我們將繼續設有策略主管，該人將向凱特匯報，並將與規劃和實際情況更加緊密地結合起來。這一角色仍然非常重要。我只是沒有選擇在我的領導團隊中擔任這個角色。但凱特能夠幫助我們應對外在世界的所有曲折和變化。而團隊將繼續幫助我們實現這一目標。

I think on refining, what would I say, so 1Q, difficult margin environment in the Midwest, where there was a surplus of gasoline. And obviously, Whiting is a gasoline-focused refinery, so that was very, very difficult pricing inside the Midwest. And then in Rotterdam, as well, diesel oversupply. So the pricing inside Rotterdam was quite, quite difficult.

我認為就煉油而言，我會說什麼呢，所以第一季，中西部地區的利潤環境很困難，汽油過剩。顯然，惠廷是一家專注於汽油的煉油廠，因此在中西部地區定價非常非常困難。鹿特丹也出現柴油供應過剩的情況。因此，鹿特丹市內的定價非常非常困難。

We are seeing these things rebound as we move into turnaround season globally and as demand starts to pick up. Remember, 1Q in the US was pretty difficult. There were quite a few storms in 1Q in the US that drove that low demand. So we're starting to see the refinings margin lift up.

隨著全球進入轉機季節並且需求開始回升，我們看到這些情況正在反彈。請記住，美國第一季相當困難。美國第一季遭遇了多起風暴，導致需求低迷。因此，我們開始看到煉油利潤率上升。

Now, we've obviously got Atlantic Basin refineries, 1.2 million a day shut in now. So we are seeing that start to lift up, and we now think that we're above our planning basis for refining margins. But as always, these things are volatile. We'll see what happens.

現在，我們顯然已經關閉了大西洋盆地煉油廠，每天有 120 萬噸的產量。因此，我們看到這個數字開始上升，現在我們認為我們的煉油利潤率已經超出了計畫基礎。但一如既往，這些事情都是不穩定的。我們將拭目以待。

At the same time that's happening, we continue with our efficiency and cost journey. We're obviously high grading the Gelsenkirchen refinery. We continue in those conversations with counterparts. And we have a big cost program across refining that we laid out. Our overall aim is to improve the profitability of that business by $2 a barrel over the next few years from '25 to '27, and we're well on track with that. And I think we were just in an oversupply situation both in 4Q and 1Q. But that now seems to be starting to alleviate itself as 1.2 million a day capacity shuts down and demand starts to pick up as we move into driving season.

同時，我們持續提高效率和成本。我們顯然對蓋爾森基興煉油廠給予了高度評價。我們繼續與同行進行這些對話。我們制定了涵蓋整個煉油行業的大型成本計劃。我們的總體目標是在未來幾年（2025 年至 2027 年）內將該業務的盈利能力提高每桶 2 美元，目前我們正順利實現這一目標。我認為第四季和第一季都處於供應過剩的局面。但現在這種情況似乎開始有所緩解，因為每天 120 萬輛汽車的運力減少，而且隨著我們進入駕駛季節，需求開始回升。

Hope that helps. Hope that helps, Lydia.

希望有幫助。希望這對你有幫助，莉迪亞。

Kim Fustier, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Firstly, on CapEx, the oil price is about $5 weaker now than the $70 Brent you assumed in the CMD in February. You've turned '25 CapEx by about 3%, which seems like the right thing to do. I appreciate there's not much flexibility to reduce CapEx in the near term, but maybe on a 12-month view, would you be able to reduce CapEx further? And if so, would you cut CapEx proportionally across upstream and non-upstream businesses?

你好。下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。首先，就資本支出而言，現在的油價比您在 2 月的 CMD 中假設的 70 美元布蘭特原油價格低了約 5 美元。您已將 25 年的資本支出減少了約 3%，這似乎是正確的做法。我知道短期內削減資本支出的彈性不大，但從 12 個月的角度來看，您是否能夠進一步削減資本支出？如果是這樣，您會按比例削減上游和非上游業務的資本支出嗎？

And I guess related to that, I've seen that you exited the low-carbon transport business and you've also canceled another biofuels project. So relative to the CMD in February, does that point to a further downside to your transition CapEx guidance? Thank you.

我想與此相關的是，我看到您退出了低碳運輸業務，並且還取消了另一個生物燃料項目。那麼相對於二月份的 CMD，這是否意味著您的過渡資本支出指引將進一步下行？謝謝。

Yeah. I think, Kim, no change to the overall guidance that we provided at Capital Markets Day. We set a range of $13 billion to $15 billion. You've obviously seen us cut our capital from $15 billion down to $14.5 billion. That's not in any specific business that I'd highlight. It's across the patch. It's about capital efficiency that we see coming through, as well as a few investment choices. None of the two that you mentioned were really impactful inside that capital frame.

是的。金，我認為我們在資本市場日提供的整體指導沒有改變。我們設定的範圍是 130 億美元至 150 億美元。您顯然已經看到我們將資本從 150 億美元削減至 145 億美元。這並不是我要強調的任何特定業務。它位於補丁的對面。我們看到的是資本效率以及一些投資選擇。您提到的這兩者在該資本框架內都沒有真正的影響力。

As far as how we think about this, we're very, very returns-driven. We will be doing whatever makes the most sense for returns as we make these decisions. In the event of an oil or gas price downside on a 12-month basis, we've got a lot of flexibility in our onshore rigs around the world, so we can obviously act on that basis. And of course, we can always trim C&M refining capital as we need it across the business as well.

就我們對此的看法而言，我們非常非常注重回報。在做出這些決定時，我們將採取一切對回報最有意義的措施。如果石油或天然氣價格在 12 個月內下跌，我們在世界各地的陸上鑽井平台都具有很大的靈活性，因此我們顯然可以據此採取行動。當然，我們也可以隨時削減 C&M 精煉資本，因為整個業務都需要它。

So I think what I'd say is we're being extra careful, given what's going on with the macro environment. We've trimmed capital by $500 million. We've accelerated divestment proceeds, so we've added $1.5 billion to the cash flow of the corporation in 2025 in case the macro continues to turn worse. And we have optionality to reduce $2.5 billion of CapEx across the group in the event prices go lower. That would obviously challenge long-term growth, so we're not doing that now. But we do have that $2.5 billion, which equates to a further $10 of price downside.

因此，我想說的是，考慮到宏觀環境的現狀，我們應該格外小心。我們已削減資本 5 億美元。我們加快了撤資收益，因此我們在 2025 年為公司的現金流增加了 15 億美元，以防宏觀經濟繼續惡化。如果價格下跌，我們可以選擇減少整個集團 25 億美元的資本支出。這顯然會對長期成長構成挑戰，所以我們現在不會這樣做。但我們確實有 25 億美元，這相當於價格進一步下跌 10 美元。

Of course, the last comment I'll make is in the event prices do start going that low, we'll start to see significant deflation based on what we've seen in past cycles, and that tends to pass through quite, quite quickly. We have seen softening in the US rig market and completions market now with the rig fleet down 10%. We're starting to see a bit of softness in the offshore floaters, so let's just see how this unfolds. But we're well prepared for any scenario.

當然，我最後要說的是，如果價格真的開始跌到那麼低，根據我們在過去週期中看到的情況，我們將開始看到嚴重的通貨緊縮，而且這種情況往往會很快過去。我們已經看到美國鑽井市場和完井市場疲軟，鑽井船隊數量下降了 10%。我們開始看到海上浮式生產設施出現一些疲軟跡象，所以讓我們拭目以待事態將如何發展。但我們已經為任何情況做好了充分的準備。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Chris Kuplent, Bank of America.

美國銀行的克里斯·庫普倫特（Chris Kuplent）。

Yeah. Thank you very much, Craig. One for you, Kate. Could you walk us through a little bit the restatement and where Archaea has moved from? I remember at the time of the acquisition, this was meant to generate $500 million plus of EBITDA this year, and I'm not sure what I can compare between your prior quarterly reports entirely tallied up. So that'd be helpful to understand the movements between downstream and low carbon.

是的。非常感謝，克雷格。給你一個，凱特。您能否向我們稍微介紹一下重述的內容以及古菌從哪裡開始發展？我記得在收購時，這項計劃旨在今年產生 5 億多美元的 EBITDA，而且我不確定我能否與您之前的季度報告進行比較。這將有助於了解下游和低碳之間的動向。

And then perhaps for you, Murray, you've now signed and published that Kirkuk agreement, but I'm still missing numerical details. Is there anything you can provide to us in terms of handrails, whether it's CapEx statistics, BOE, or IRRs? Thank you.

那麼，莫瑞，也許對你來說，你現在已經簽署並公佈了基爾庫克協議，但我仍然缺少數位細節。您能否為我們提供一些幫助信息，無論是資本支出統計數據、BOE 還是 IRR？謝謝。

Great. I'll start off with Kirkuk, and then we'll hand over to Kate for your other question.

偉大的。我先從基爾庫克開始，然後交給凱特來回答您的另一個問題。

The Government of Iraq will publish the PSA at some moment in time is what we understand. They have not done so yet, so I have to be guarded in what I say, Chris. I hope you understand that I don't want to break any of those agreements.

據我們了解，伊拉克政府將在某個時間點發佈公共服務公告。他們還沒有這樣做，所以我必須謹慎說話，克里斯。我希望你理解我不想違反任何協議。

I think the way you should think about this is this will be an incorporated joint venture where we bring partners into. There will be CapEx on balance sheet for a little bit, but then the CapEx will move off balance sheet as we bring those partners in. That's the first thing to say. So it will be a very capital-light investment into Iraq.

我認為你應該這樣想：這將是一個我們可以引入合作夥伴的合資企業。資產負債表上會有一段時間的資本支出，但隨著我們引入這些合作夥伴，資本支出將移出資產負債表。這是首先要說的。因此，這將是對伊拉克的一項輕資本投資。

The terms are much better than the previous rounds. Remember, we're on the eighth round now of price improvements since the first awards back in '27 and 2028. And I think some of the terms from the eighth round have been published, so you can look at those inside the various different sources, and you'll know that we're doing at least as well as that.

這些條款比前幾輪好得多。請記住，自 1927 年和 2028 年首次授予以來，我們現在已經處於第八輪價格上調。我認為第八輪的一些條款已經公佈，所以你可以在不同的來源中查看這些條款，你就會知道我們至少做得一樣好。

The other things that are public that I can talk about is with Rumaila, we only had the oil rights. Now, we have both the oil rights and the gas rights, and it's a decent gas price. So we'll be very incentivized to help the nation with natural gas supplies, which they're encouraging us to look at. So that offers up an entirely different tranche of profitability relative to Rumaila.

我可以公開談論的其他事情是，關於魯邁拉，我們只擁有石油權。現在，我們既擁有石油權，又擁有天然氣權，天然氣價格也合理。因此，我們將非常積極地幫助國家解決天然氣供應問題，他們也鼓勵我們考慮這一點。因此，與魯邁拉相比，這提供了完全不同的獲利能力。

And I think the other thing to say is that there's a price upside inside this PSA that did not exist in the previous tranches as you look back across time. So it's pretty profitable. It'll be cash flow positive quite quickly. Volume ramp-up, I can't really disclose volume ramp and volume numbers until the PSA is published, and hopefully that gets published and then I can talk about this more wholesomely.

我認為另一件要說的事情是，如果你回顧過去，你會發現這個 PSA 中存在著前幾批 PSA 所沒有的價格上漲空間。所以利潤還是比較大的。現金流很快就會變成正數。銷量成長，在 PSA 發布之前我無法真正透露銷量成長和銷量數字，希望 PSA 能夠發布，然後我就可以更全面地談論這個問題。

That's just for the 3 billion barrels inside the 25-year agreement we've struck. We also continue to look at exploration optionality underneath the existing five domes. So that will be -- we have some commitments to drill some wells there that will open up new avenues beyond the 3 billion barrels, and I'm sure there's lots of resource there as the source rock is very, very rich. And of course, we continue to have conversations with them about the surrounding acreage as well and getting more exploration opportunities.

這只是我們達成的25年協議中的30億桶。我們也將繼續研究現有五個穹頂下的勘探選項。因此，我們承諾在那裡鑽探一些油井，這將開闢 30 億桶以上的新途徑，我相信那裡有大量資源，因為源岩非常非常豐富。當然，我們也會繼續與他們討論週邊地區的土地問題，並獲得更多勘探機會。

So we think this is a great investment. And as we get that PSA published, I would look at the last round for now. And then when the new PSA is published, you should be able to model it pretty tightly, Chris.

所以我們認為這是一項偉大的投資。當我們發布 PSA 時，我會暫時關注最後一輪。然後，當新的 PSA 發佈時，你應該能夠對其進行非常緊密的建模，克里斯。

Over to you, Kate.

交給你了，凱特。

Appreciate that. Helpful. Thank you.

非常感謝。很有幫助。謝謝。

Hi, Chris. Yeah. So on Archaea, we moved it out of the Customers & Products segment and into the Gas & Low Carbon Energy segment. So where we have materiality, we have restated the 2024 numbers to demonstrate the impact of that.

你好，克里斯。是的。因此，對於 Archaea，我們將其從客戶和產品部門移至天然氣和低碳能源部門。因此，對於重要性問題，我們重申了 2024 年的數據，以證明其影響。

And with regards to disclosure, we'll disclose annually in terms of EBITDA, as we said we would when we were talking about this back at the Capital Markets Day. In terms of progress, it did well last year, nine plants online. We've got three online already this year. I think we're expecting 8 to 10. And we still continue to expect Archaea to be free cash flow positive by 2026. So from our perspective, it's well on track.

至於披露，我們將每年披露 EBITDA，就像我們在資本市場日談論這個問題時所說的那樣。從進度來看，去年表現不錯，有九家工廠上線。今年我們已經有三家公司上線了。我認為我們預計會有 8 到 10 個。我們仍然預計 Archaea 到 2026 年將實現自由現金流為正。因此從我們的角度來看，一切進展順利。

Okay. Thanks, Chris.

好的。謝謝，克里斯。

Okay. Thank you, Kate.

好的。謝謝你，凱特。

Sorry, Chris, did you have a follow-up there?

抱歉，克里斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

All good. I'll circle back later. Thank you very much, Craig.

一切都好。我稍後再回來。非常感謝，克雷格。

Jason Gabelman, TD Cowen.

傑森·加貝爾曼（Jason Gabelman），TD Cowen。

Good afternoon. Happy to be back on the call. I wanted to start on Gas & Low Carbon Energy. The tax rate was high across the company, but also in that segment. I was wondering if you could talk about what drove that and what your expectations are on the tax rate for that segment going forward and more broadly for the company. Thanks.

午安.很高興再次接聽電話。我想開始研究天然氣和低碳能源。整個公司的稅率都很高，但部門的稅率也很高。我想知道您是否可以談談推動這一趨勢的原因，以及您對該部門未來稅率以及整個公司稅率的預期。謝謝。

Yeah. I'll let Kate, as our ex Head of Tax, talk about that.

是的。我會讓凱特（我們的前稅務主管）來談論這個問題。

Thanks, Murray. Yeah. So the group tax rate, the effective tax rate for the first quarter was around 50%. That's higher than it was in the previous quarter. And then they -- in the previous year in terms of 1Q, largely driven by the composition of our profits, we tend to have higher taxed areas in our oil production and operations segment than we do in either our Customers & Products or our Gas & Low Carbon Energy. And that's what's driving the effective tax rate.

謝謝，默里。是的。因此，集團稅率，第一季的有效稅率約為 50%。這比上一季的水平要高。然後他們——就上一年第一季而言，很大程度上受我們利潤組成的推動，我們的石油生產和營運部門的稅收區域往往比我們的客戶和產品或天然氣和低碳能源部門的稅收區域要高。這就是推動有效稅率的因素。

For now, I think it's important to remind people that we haven't changed our guidance for the full year. We still currently expect our effective tax rate to be around 40%.

目前，我認為有必要提醒大家，我們沒有改變全年的期望。我們目前仍預期我們的有效稅率將在40%左右。

Okay. Can you say something specifically about Gas & Low Carbon Energy? It looks like 1Q tax rate for that segment was 47%. It's been around 30% the past couple of years.

好的。能具體談談天然氣和低碳能源嗎？看起來該部分第一季的稅率為 47%。過去幾年一直維持在 30% 左右。

Yeah, I think we'll follow up with you separate on that. We don't disclose tax rates by segment. So I'll let Craig and the IR team pick that up with you afterwards, if that's okay, Jason.

是的，我想我們會就此問題與您單獨溝通。我們不會揭露各細分領域的稅率。因此，如果可以的話，傑森，我會讓 Craig 和 IR 團隊隨後與您一起討論這個問題。

Okay, that's fine. And then my follow-up is just on gas hedging. And I believe you had a solid gas hedging program for the Lower 48 last year, and was wondering if you're doing the same this year, if you could talk about pricing you've locked in. Thanks.

好的，沒問題。我的後續問題是關於天然氣對沖。我相信您去年針對美國本土 48 個州制定了完善的天然氣對沖計劃，我想知道您今年是否會採取同樣的措施，能否談談您鎖定的價格。謝謝。

Yeah, we won't be specific. It's a bit commercially sensitive right now. But we'll say the majority of the gas hedges are locked in for bpx. The majority of the production profiles locked in around $4, Jason. So that's what we've got roughly right now.

是的，我們不會具體說明。現在這在商業上有點敏感。但我們會說，大多數天然氣對沖都被鎖在bpx上。大部分生產資料鎖定在 4 美元左右，傑森。這就是我們現在大致得到的資訊。

Okay, great. Thanks for the answers.

好的，太好了。謝謝您的回答。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。

Yeah, thanks. I've got two as well. I wanted to ask about a few line items that we don't often talk about, but actually, in terms of our ability to model earnings and balance sheet gearing are quite important. One is the line about the minorities, which seems to have grown over time. And frankly, it's quite hard to know really sort of what's in there. But any sort of indication, guidance, what that sort of minorities line could report its current quarter is an indication of what we can expect over the next couple of quarters.

是的，謝謝。我也有兩個。我想問一些我們不常談論的項目，但實際上，就我們模擬收益的能力而言，資產負債表槓桿率非常重要。一條是關於少數民族的路線，這條路線似乎隨著時間的推移而增長。坦白說，很難知道裡面到底有什麼。但任何跡象、指引，以及少數族裔人士在本季可能報告的情況，都預示著我們對未來幾季的預期。

And also related to that, the line item sort of adjusting items, which we never talk about, and on our end, we always assume that it's zero going forward, but over the last six quarters, it's averaged negative $1.7 billion per quarter. And so in terms of modeling balance sheet gearing, this actually moves around things sort of quite a bit. To the extent that you can say anything about the line item adjusting items going forward, perhaps not being zero, is there anything you can sort of guide us there? Because it would help us sort of modeling the balance sheet.

與此相關的是，我們從不談論那些調整項目，而我們始終假設它在未來為零，但在過去六個季度，平均每季為負 17 億美元。因此，就資產負債表槓桿建模而言，這實際上會對事情產生相當大的影響。就您能否說出有關未來專案調整專案的任何資訊而言，也許不是零，您能為我們提供什麼指導嗎？因為它可以幫助我們建立資產負債表模型。

Then next to these two accounting questions, I've got one specific question about Kaskida. My understanding is that the platform for Kaskida is under construction at the yard, I believe, in Singapore. If that platform is imported into the United States, I would suspect that a tariff would need to be paid. But I wanted to ask if you could confirm that, indeed, importing that platform for that project is subject to an import tariff. And also, if you can say something about how that might impact the economics of the Kaskida project overall.

除了這兩個會計問題之外，我還有一個關於卡斯基達的具體問題。據我了解，Kaskida 號平台正在新加坡的船廠建造。如果該平台進口到美國，我懷疑需要繳關稅。但我想問您是否可以確認，為該項目進口該平台確實需要繳納進口關稅。另外，您能否談談這可能會對 Kaskida 計畫的整體經濟狀況產生什麼影響？

Yeah. Just to take Kaskida first, finished goods are not subject to tariff, Martin. So I don't think that's a risk at this stage. So nothing we're particularly concerned about.

是的。先拿卡斯基達來說吧，成品不受關稅限制，馬丁。所以我認為現階段這不是一個風險。所以我們沒有什麼特別擔心的。

On NCI, I think you were asking a question. I'll let Kate tackle that one. Just on adjusting items, I can't really give you any guidance. There are a million things that flow through there. Fair value accounting effects on hedges, on derivatives, et cetera, move through there. So it's quite a volatile set of accounting elements that go through it. You can see it on page 24 of the FCA.

關於 NCI，我認為你在問一個問題。我會讓凱特來解決這個問題。僅就調整項目而言，我真的無法給你任何指導。那裡有無數的東西流經。公允價值會計對避險、衍生性商品等的影響由此產生。因此，這是一組相當不穩定的會計要素。您可以在 FCA 第 24 頁看到它。

I think if I tried to give you guidance on that, I'd just get it wrong. If you think back in history, what's happened there, at one moment in time, there were $21 billion of adjusting items in a particular quarter because of the moves on gas prices against the hedges that we had in our LNG trading book. And those eventually evaporated to zero over time.

我想如果我試圖就此給你指導，我只會做錯。如果你回顧一下歷史，你會發現，在某個特定季度，由於天然氣價格的波動與我們在液化天然氣交易帳簿中的對沖相悖，調整項目金額高達 210 億美元。隨著時間的推移，這些最終都會消失為零。

So I just encourage you to think about cash flow would be my suggestion, because that page of adjusting items is very, very difficult to forecast. It has a lot to do with interest rates. It has a lot to do with oil and gas pricing and the contracts we have in place. Generally, there will be offsets in the underlying business, and it's more of an accounting issue than a cash flow or earnings perspective, which is why we provide the adjustments we do.

因此，我只是鼓勵你考慮現金流，這是我的建議，因為那頁調整項目非常非常難以預測。這與利率有很大關係。這與石油和天然氣定價以及我們簽訂的合約有很大關係。一般來說，基礎業務中會有抵消，這更多的是一個會計問題，而不是現金流量或獲利問題，這就是我們提供調整的原因。

Kate, over to you on NCI.

凱特，NCI 的問題交給你了。

Yeah. Thanks, Murray. Hi, Martijn. The only other point I'd add on adjusting items is, of course, you get tax items flowing through that as well. And this quarter, the pre-tax adjusting items were about $400 million. Then, there was a 500 million adjusting item relating to the extension of the EPL in the UK system. So that also flows through.

是的。謝謝，默里。你好，Martijn。關於調整項目，我唯一要補充的另一點當然是，稅項也會透過調整項目流動。本季稅前調整項目約4億美元。然後，還有一項與英超聯賽在英國體系中的延伸有關的5億英鎊的調整項目。所以這也貫穿始終。

Turning to NCI, yeah, it tipped up a little bit in this quarter. A lot of that was really due to the fact that we pre-issued around $2.5 billion of hybrids in the fourth quarter. If you could recall back to that, I was explaining that we took advantage of pretty unusually good conditions to issue in advance of upcoming maturities through '25 and '26, as did our peers, actually. And so as a consequence, the costs associated with the hybrids are up a bit. The bit you can't see is that we chose to take that cash and invest it. And so we are earning interest income on the other side of that, which largely offsets it.

談到 NCI，是的，本季它略有上升。這在很大程度上是因為我們在第四季度預先發行了約 25 億美元的混合債券。如果你能回想一下，我當時解釋說，我們利用了相當異常好的條件，提前發行了 25 年和 26 年到期的債券，實際上我們的同行也這樣做了。因此，混合動力汽車的相關成本會略有上升。您看不到的是，我們選擇拿出這筆現金並進行投資。因此，我們在另一邊賺取利息收入，這在很大程度上抵消了它。

In terms of how that's going to look for the next few quarters, as you know, I've just said the first maturity window with regard to our hybrid stack doesn't open up until June. We have the opportunity, if we choose to reduce by up to $1.2 billion, let's see when we get there. But unless and until we reduce that hybrid stack, the level of NCI income is going to remain fairly stable.

至於未來幾季的情況，正如你所知，我剛才說過，我們的混合堆疊的第一個成熟窗口要到六月才會開放。如果我們選擇減少最多 12 億美元，我們就有機會，讓我們看看何時能實現這一目標。但除非我們減少混合堆棧，否則 NCI 收入水準將保持相當穩定。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on net debt. I was wondering if you could give us perhaps some guidance of where you expect it at the end of the year, assuming flat pricing, given the operating working capital reversal that you expect through the rest of the year.

謝謝。請問我有兩個問題。第一個是關於淨債務。我想知道您是否可以給我們一些指導，假設價格持平，考慮到您預計今年剩餘時間的營運資本逆轉，您對年底的預期是多少。

And then secondly, I wanted to ask you a broader question on tariffs beyond the Kaskida platform, just whether there is any sensitivity that you guys have done on what could be the impact on your business from tariffs and if there is any part of it which is especially subject to it. Thank you.

其次，我想問您一個關於 Kaskida 平​​台之外的關稅的更廣泛的問題，即您是否對關稅可能對您的業務產生的影響有所了解，以及其中是否有任何部分特別受關稅影響。謝謝。

Michele, I'll take tariffs, and I'll hand over net debt to Kate.

米歇爾，我會承擔關稅，並將淨債務交給凱特。

I think on tariffs, so far, we haven't seen a material impact to the business. If you think about our American business, we import product from Canada to process in our refineries. That's now been exempted under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement.

我認為，就關稅而言，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到對業務的實質影響。如果你考慮我們的美國業務，我們從加拿大進口產品並在我們的煉油廠進行加工。根據美國-墨西哥-加拿大貿易協定，這項規定現已獲得豁免。

The aluminum and steel tariffs, we're not seeing any impact in our Lower 48 business because we took a choice 18 months ago to source all of that steel domestically, so we don't see much of an impact. And in the Gulf of America, as we just talked about, there's some specialty steels that we import for drilling and casing, but it's very, very small, and it's not going to have a material impact on the business. So I think as I think about the US operations themselves, there's just not much of an impact on tariff, Michele, at all.

鋁和鋼鐵關稅對我們在美國本土 48 州的業務沒有造成任何影響，因為我們 18 個月前就選擇在國內採購所有鋼鐵，所以我們沒有看到太大的影響。正如我們剛才談到的，在美國灣，我們進口了一些用於鑽井和套管的特殊鋼材，但數量非常少，不會對業務產生重大影響。因此，我認為，就美國業務本身而言，關稅不會受到太大影響，米歇爾。

Kate, over to you on the question on net debt.

凱特，關於淨債務的問題交給你。

Yeah. Hi, Michele. I think the first thing I do want to say on net debt is that the target that we've set out of the $14 billion to $18 billion by 2027, I know Murray said it in his opening comments, but I think it bears reinforcing. We're very confident in the delivery of that, and that's what we're really focused on.

是的。你好，米歇爾。關於淨債務，我想說的第一件事是，我們設定的目標是到 2027 年將債務減至 140 億美元至 180 億美元，我知道 Murray 在開場白中已經提到了這一點，但我認為值得強調。我們對此目標的實現非常有信心，這也是我們真正關注的重點。

With regard to the trajectory through the rest of 2025, we've got some big moving parts on there. So we've got about, as I look at it, around $2.5 billion, perhaps a little bit more of the working capital will reverse. And if we hit the top of the new target on divestment proceeds, you've got around another $3.5 billion of proceeds coming in from that source. So there's some big moving parts on top of the operational performance.

關於 2025 年剩餘時間的發展軌跡，我們已經看到了一些重大的變化。因此，我認為，我們大約有 25 億美元，也許還有更多的營運資金將會逆轉。如果我們達到新的撤資收益目標的最高點，那麼從該來源我們還將獲得約 35 億美元的收益。因此，除了營運績效之外，還有一些重大的活動部件。

So I think I would like to just take a moment to just comment on the way that we're going to tackle our net debt target. If you remember in February, we talked about ring-fencing divestment proceeds from transactions on Castrol and Lightsource. We've launched the process on Castrol.

因此，我想我願意花一點時間來評論一下我們解決淨債務目標的方法。如果您還記得，我們​​在二月討論了嘉實多和 Lightsource 交易的專案撤資收益。我們已經啟動了嘉實多的流程。

We've got, as you might imagine, great interest in that asset. It's an iconic brand. It's been in place for 125 years, and the team are doing a fantastic job for the last few years improving their performance and delivery every single quarter. So that's looking strong, and we expect to launch a process on Lightsource bp this quarter. So the proceeds from both of those go to bring our balance sheet back into the $14 billion to $18 billion range, and we feel very confident of that.

正如您可能想像的那樣，我們對該資產非常感興趣。這是一個標誌性品牌。它已經存在了 125 年，過去幾年裡，團隊做得非常出色，每個季度的績效和交付都有所提高。所以這看起來很強勁，我們預計將於本季在 Lightsource bp 上啟動一個流程。因此，這兩項投資的收益將使我們的資產負債表回到 140 億美元至 180 億美元的範圍內，我們對此非常有信心。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬特‧洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

Thanks, all, for taking the questions. Two, if I could, please.

謝謝大家回答這些問題。如果可以的話，請給我兩份。

I wanted to specifically first ask you about trading. I think you talked about gas earlier, but I wanted to just ask on oil and liquid. I guess over the last 12 months, bp has generally turned the contribution in the average to weak range, and then optically or on a headline basis, it seems to have coincided with moderated oil and product markets. So I wondered if you could just talk about whether there's any key market or spread characteristics that the company would want to see strengthened in order for the contribution of that business to follow suit?

我首先想特別問您有關交易的問題。我想您之前談到了天然氣，但我只想問一下石油和液體。我想，在過去的 12 個月裡，英國石油公司總體上已經將平均貢獻轉為弱勢，然後從視覺上或從總體上看，這似乎與石油和產品市場的放緩相吻合。所以我想知道您是否可以談談公司是否希望加強某些關鍵市場或傳播特徵，以便該業務的貢獻也能隨之增強？

And then secondly, on the buyback and $750 million for Q1, is there any frame you can share on how bp's thought about the calibration of that $750 million for the full year, for example, where that moment you think is most appropriate to be for 2025 within the 30% to 40% CFFO range? Thanks.

其次，關於回購和第一季的 7.5 億美元，您能否分享一下 bp 對全年 7.5 億美元校準的想法，例如，您認為最合適的時刻是在 2025 年 30% 至 40% 的 CFFO 範圍內？謝謝。

Yeah, great. Matt, I'll take the trading question, and I'll let Kate take the other question.

是的，很棒。馬特，我將回答交易問題，然後讓凱特回答另一個問題。

I think on trading, as Carol talked about at our Capital Markets Day nine weeks ago, our trading is made up of three bits. There's the day-to-day business where we provide customers with energy that makes up about half of our profitability. There's 25% about rediversions when disruptions occur. So 75% of both oil and gas really is all about that base level business that we continue to work away at.

我認為，就交易而言，正如卡羅爾九週前在資本市場日上談到的那樣，我們的交易由三個部分組成。我們每天向客戶提供能源，這占我們獲利的一半左右。當發生中斷時，有 25% 是關於重新改道的。因此，75% 的石油和天然氣實際上都與我們持續努力的基礎業務有關。

On top of that is trading in a speculative sense where we do tend to take time spread positions. I think on that particular bit, the things that make it easier or make it hard, I think headline-driven events, political headline-driven events make it quite difficult to trade. And that's what you saw if you look at the results of the trading houses over the past 12 months. Some of them have outright exited the space as they've dealt with the headlines because they didn't have the physical flow that we have. And then you're just looking to take advantage of spreads over time, whether geographic spreads, time spreads, quality spreads. That's the space where our oil trading book tends to make money.

最重要的是，我們在投機交易中傾向於採取時間價差部位。我認為就這一點而言，讓交易變得更容易或更困難的事情是，頭條新聞驅動的事件、政治頭條新聞驅動的事件使交易變得相當困難。如果你看一下過去 12 個月貿易公司的業績，你就會看到這一點。他們中的一些人已經直接退出了這個領域，因為他們沒有像我們這樣的物理流量。然後，您只需要利用一段時間內的利差，無論是地理利差、時間利差還是品質利差。這就是我們的石油交易帳簿往往能賺錢的地方。

Matt, I'm afraid if I go any further than that, my traders will get angry with me. So I'll stop there and pass over to Kate. Go ahead, Kate, on buyback.

馬特，我擔心如果我再進一步，我的交易員會生我的氣。所以我就此打住，把麥克風交給凱特。繼續吧，凱特，回購。

Yeah. Thanks, Murray. Hello, Matt.

是的。謝謝，默里。你好，馬特。

With regard to the 1Q share buyback, at the Capital Markets Update, we suggested that the buyback for the first quarter was likely to be in the range of $750 million to $1 billion. As we think about the buyback each quarter as a Board, the first element of the thinking is the way we have now framed our approach to distributions in our new financial framework. And we have said that the total of the resilient dividend and the share buyback over time will be around 30% to 40% of operating cash flow. That's over time. It's not a mechanical quarter in, quarter out calculation. It's a frame for the Board to use as a guardrail in terms of how it thinks about it. And we've also said it's a mechanism to share excess cash.

關於第一季的股票回購，在資本市場更新中，我們建議第一季的回購金額可能在 7.5 億至 10 億美元之間。當我們董事會考慮每個季度的回購時，首先要考慮的因素是我們現在如何在新的財務框架中建立分配方法。我們說過，長期來看，彈性股利和股票回購總額將佔經營現金流的 30% 至 40% 左右。時間已經過去了。這不是機械的季度進出計算。這是董事會思考這個問題時可以用作護欄的框架。我們也說過，這是分享多餘現金的機制。

At each Board decision, as we step through the quarters, we'll, of course, take into consideration what's going on in performance, as well as the frame of 30% to 40% of ops cash, but also current volatility, outlook, medium term, across the range of the commodities that drive our cash flow. But we're not going to guide forward. We'll update you at 2Q when we've stepped through that decision-making process.

在董事會做出每季的決策時，我們當然會考慮業績表現，以及 30% 至 40% 的營運現金框架，同時還會考慮當前的波動性、前景、中期以及推動我們現金流的各種商品。但我們不會引導前進。當我們完成決策過程後，我們將在第二季向您通報最新情況。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫娜，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you. Good afternoon. I had, first of all, a question on the $500 million cost reduction in Q1, which I thought was quite an impressive number. You said you will update us in Q2 on costs, but I just wanted to try and understand the type of cost saving we're talking about. Where is it coming from? If you can perhaps give us just a couple of examples to understand.

謝謝。午安.首先，我有一個問題，關於第一季 5 億美元的成本削減，我認為這是一個相當令人印象深刻的數字。您說過會在第二季向我們通報成本情況，但我只是想嘗試了解我們所談論的成本節約類型。它是從哪裡來的？您能否舉幾個例子讓我們更容易理解。

And then secondly, Kate, if I may go back to the adjusting items and the $539 million UK energy profits levy in Q1, that amount was greater than the full-year '24 amount. So should we treat this as a one-off Q1 event, or is there more to come later this year on this UK energy profits levy, please? Thank you.

其次，凱特，如果我可以回到調整項目和第一季 5.39 億美元的英國能源利潤稅，這個金額高於 24 年全年的金額。那麼，我們是否應該將其視為一次性的第一季事件，或者今年稍後英國還會對能源利潤稅採取更多措施？謝謝。

Hi, Irene. I'll take the second question first. It's very straightforward. It's purely the tax effecting of the extension of the EPR to 2030, which was substantively enacted in the first quarter. You therefore have to take the full adjustment at that point in time, so you shouldn't think that that is recurring. It's all been accounted for fully now.

你好，艾琳。我先回答第二個問題。這非常簡單。這純粹是 EPR 延長至 2030 年的稅收影響，該政策已於第一季實質生效。因此，您必須在那個時間點進行全面調整，所以您不應該認為那是重複發生的。現在一切都已經全部解釋清楚了。

With regard to the $500 million cost reduction, yeah, I'm in a similar place to you. I thought it was a good outcome. It's reflective of the fact that we have the teams in action at pace right across the company. In particular, I think for 1Q, I'd call out progress in Customers & Products. I think they're doing very well, but also we're trimming costs, as I've said, across all business, but also in all of the sort of corporate head office functions as well, and we're making good progress.

關於削減 5 億美元的成本，是的，我和你的想法類似。我認為這是一個很好的結果。這反映出我們公司各團隊都在快速行動。特別是，我認為對於第一季度，我會強調客戶和產品的進展。我認為他們做得很好，而且正如我所說，我們正在削減所有業務的成本，同時也削減了所有公司總部職能部門的成本，我們正在取得良好進展。

One of the things that we've talked about in the past is our focus on taking out third party and supply chain, and we have around 3,000 contractors that have now left bp. We're now going through the next 3,400 contractors role by role, and we're able to use some technology with the help of Palantir that allows us to go through that exercise and create data-led decision-making, as I say, role by role on those contractors and move at a pace that we just couldn't doing it manually. So we're in action enormously right across the company on that, and I look forward to updating in much more detail at the second quarter.

我們過去談到的事情之一是，我們專注於淘汰第三方和供應鏈，現在大約有 3,000 名承包商離開了 bp。我們現在正在對接下來的 3,400 名承包商進行逐一角色審核，在 Palantir 的幫助下，我們能夠使用一些技術，這些技術使我們能夠完成這項工作並創建數據驅動的決策，正如我所說，對這些承包商進行逐一角色審核，並以我們無法手動完成的速度進行。因此，我們整個公司都在大力採取行動，我期待在第二季更新更詳細的資訊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lucas Herrmann, BNP.

法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯·赫爾曼。

Thanks very much, and a couple, if I may. Kate, volumes from venture now, I presume that they're flowing. Can you give -- should we assume that you're going to receive broadly 1.5 million tons of LNG this year and start incorporating that, obviously, in numbers? Just any observations there?

非常感謝，如果可以的話，我想說幾點。凱特，現在來自創投的資金量很大，我想它們正在流動。您能否給出——我們是否應該假設您今年將接收大約 150 萬噸液化天然氣，並開始將其納入數字中？有什麼觀察嗎？

And I'm going to ask this one. I think it's probably going to be seen by you as a statement of heresy almost, but it relates to trading. It strikes me that for bp and for re-establishment of confidence and trust, increased ability, whatever, within quarterly numbers is of increasing importance. I don't doubt for a moment the competence or the scale of the trading business and your ability historically to generate healthy average returns across an extended period, if not within a short period.

我要問這個問題。我想你可能會認為這是一種異端言論，但它與交易有關。我認為，對於英國石油公司以及重建信心和信任而言，提高能力，無論如何，在季度數據中都變得越來越重要。我毫不懷疑你們的交易業務的能力和規模，以及你們在較長時期內（即使不是在短時間內）創造健康平均回報的能力。

But as you say, Murray, and as Carol highlighted, I mean, you have fantastic flows, which should lead to -- which obviously drive a sustainable level of margin, albeit it will obviously vary depending on price, and then you have a solid ability to optimize. Is this not a point in time where perhaps the organization should think less about value trading and think just more about trying to deliver a stream that is more stable, more consistent, and drives less volatility in the quarterly numbers, as has tended to be the way over the last several quarters? You're welcome to shoot me, Murray.

但正如你所說，默里，以及卡羅爾強調的那樣，我的意思是，你擁有出色的流量，這應該會導致 - 這顯然會推動可持續的利潤水平，儘管它顯然會根據價格而變化，然後你就擁有了強大的優化能力。現在是該組織應該少考慮價值交易，而多考慮如何提供更穩定、更一致、季度數據波動更小的數據流，就像過去幾季的做法一樣？歡迎你來射殺我，莫瑞。

Yeah. Lucas, I'm trying to think about how to answer your second question. I'll answer the first one, which is quite easy, which is ventures. Yes, it is flowing. It started flowing in mid-April, and we've got two MTPA at capacity at venture offtake, and I think I'll stop describing anything on venture beyond that, on venture global.

是的。盧卡斯，我正在思考如何回答你的第二個問題。我先回答第一個問題，這個問題比較簡單，就是創投。是的，它正在流動。它於四月中旬開始流動，我們在 Venture Offtake 的產能為 2 MTPA，我想我將不再描述 Venture Global 上關於此以外的任何內容。

On trading, the trading benches are incentivized to make as much money as they possibly can, and they take views based on the risk that is out there. If I told them, stabilize your income, it really wouldn't be a trading organization. It would be a marketing flow organization, and you'd lose an awful lot of edge inside the commercial delivery that we see.

在交易中，交易員受到激勵去盡可能多地賺錢，並且他們根據存在的風險來形成觀點。如果我告訴他們，穩定你的收入，那它就真的不是貿易組織了。這將是行銷流程組織，你會在我們看到的商業交付中失去很多優勢。

So I kind of understand the question, but all trading organizations across the world are highly incentivized to drive as much profit as they can, as opposed to partial profit. And I understand the volatility points you're making, and all I'd encourage everyone to think about is that you should not look at this on a quarter-by-quarter basis, nor should you look at it on a bench-by-bench basis.

所以我有點理解這個問題，但是全世界所有的貿易組織都有強烈的動機去獲取盡可能多的利潤，而不是部分利潤。我理解您所說的波動點，我鼓勵大家思考的是，您不應該以季度為單位來看待這個問題，也不應該以逐個工作台來看待這個問題。

You should think of it in an annual cycle, in a multi-year cycle. We have earned 4% over the past five years. It has been about half gas, it has been about half oil, and of course, you should divide that in four as you estimate it. And we continue to have a strong track record of delivering that 4%, no matter what the macroenvironment conditions are.

你應該以年度週期、多年周期來考慮它。過去五年我們的利潤為4%。其中大約一半是天然氣，一半是石油，當然，你在估算時應該將其除以四。無論宏觀環境條件如何，我們都能保持實現 4% 的強勁成長記錄。

So I think that's my response, Lucas. Thank you for the challenge.

所以我想這就是我的回應，盧卡斯。感謝您的挑戰。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

亨利·塔爾 (Henry Tarr)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

Hi there, Craig. Hi, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I guess some positive news in Namibia over the last few days with Azule. What are your plans from here in Namibia, I guess? And would you be interested in getting more exposure to the region if the right opportunity came up? Thanks.

你好，克雷格。大家好。感謝您回答我的問題。我猜想過去幾天納米比亞與 Azule 之間有一些積極的消息。我想，您來納米比亞有什麼計畫？如果有合適的機會，您是否有興趣進一步了解該地區？謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Henry. Yeah, it was a significant discovery that our partner, Rhino, led. We operate through the Azule joint venture, a 50-50 joint venture with ENI. We're very pleased with the well. It was a significant discovery. They did an extended well test on it and obviously produced 10 kbd of light, sweet oil as they did that. We're currently evaluating the results from the drill stem test and thinking about what the next steps forwards are with our partners. I think it's premature to say anything more than that, other than we're very pleased with it.

偉大的。謝謝，亨利。是的，這是我們的合作夥伴 Rhino 領導的一項重大發現。我們透過與 ENI 各持股 50% 的合資企業 Azule 開展業務。我們對這口井非常滿意。這是一個重大發現。他們對其進行了擴展油井測試，顯然生產了 10 kbd 的輕質低硫油。我們目前正在評估鑽桿測試的結果，並與夥伴一起思考下一步的行動。我認為現在說這些還為時過早，但我們對此感到非常高興。

As far as would we do more in Namibia, we're always looking for interesting exploration acreage around the world, and that's possible. But right now, I think we're pretty happy with the position we have and the block we have. And we'll update you in due course on that over time, Henry. Thank you.

至於我們是否會在納米比亞做更多的事情，我們一直在世界各地尋找有趣的勘探區域，這是可能的。但現在，我認為我們對我們所擁有的位置和所擁有的阻擋感到非常滿意。亨利，我們會及時向您通報最新情況。謝謝。

That's great. Thanks.

那太棒了。謝謝。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑富瑞。

Thank you. Two questions remaining, maybe more of a clarification. Murray, when you talked about the $2.5 billion reduction potential for CapEx, I'm just trying to understand what you're thinking there in terms of what level of prices would trigger such a reduction. Should we expect that to be more linearly if prices go down, or there's a particular level you have in mind where you would see an acceleration?

謝謝。還剩下兩個問題，也許需要進一步澄清。莫瑞，當您談到 25 億美元的資本支出削減潛力時，我只是想了解您認為什麼樣的價格水平會引發這樣的削減。如果價格下跌，我們是否應該預期它會更加線性，或者您認為在某個特定水平上會看到加速？

Second question is on Gas & Low Carbon. Appreciate the color on cost. If I look, though, at the EBITDA, I still find it quite low compared to what I get through the model. Just trying to understand around the contribution from energy trading, whether that was, in fact, positive this quarter, or is there any chance you had actually a negative contribution to the EBITDA this quarter?

第二個問題是關於天然氣和低碳的。欣賞成本上的色彩。但是，如果我看一下 EBITDA，我仍然會發現它與透過模型獲得的結果相比相當低。只是想了解能源交易的貢獻，本季是否實際上是正面的，或者是否有可能對本季的 EBITDA 產生負面影響？

Thanks, Giacomo. No, we didn't have a loss. It was a weak quarter, though, a weak quarter, as you signal.

謝謝，賈科莫。不，我們沒有損失。但正如您所說，這是一個疲軟的季度，一個疲軟的季度。

On CapEx flexibility, we've made a decision to trim $500 million based on the macroeconomic environment. Let's wait and see what happens over the coming weeks. There are some OPEC meetings. We'll have to see how the negotiations between the US and Iran unfold, and we'll have to see how the tariffs unfold as well and what that does to overall demand.

在資本支出彈性方面，我們根據宏觀經濟環境決定削減 5 億美元。讓我們拭目以待，看看未來幾週會發生什麼。有一些 OPEC 會議。我們必須觀察美國和伊朗之間的談判如何展開，我們還必須觀察關稅如何展開以及這對整體需求有何影響。

We will stay right on top of this, making the decisions we need to make. We have lots of flexibility with the $2.5 billion that we talked about. Of course, it will demand decisions on different parts of the business. We're not just an oil company. We have oil, we have natural gas, we have service stations that we fund, et cetera. And so we'll be thinking about the different macro environments into each of those if we are to make those decisions. But a first step of $500 million and no plans to make further cuts at this stage, but we will remain tightly attuned to the marketplace and ensure that we can meet our targets for 2027.

我們將密切關注此事，做出我們需要做出的決定。對於我們談到的 25 億美元，我們擁有很大的靈活性。當然，這需要對業務的不同部分做出決策。我們不僅僅是一家石油公司。我們有石油、有天然氣、有我們資助的服務站等等。因此，如果我們要做出這些決定，我們會考慮每個決定中不同的宏觀環境。但第一步是 5 億美元，現階段沒有進一步削減的計劃，但我們將繼續密切關注市場，確保我們能夠實現 2027 年的目標。

Thank you, Giacomo.

謝謝你，賈科莫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Cheng, Scotia.

保羅程 (Paul Cheng)，蘇格蘭人。

Hi. Thank you. Two questions, please. Murray, in the Gulf of America, the US just had a new rule, the downhole commingling. Can you give us some idea that where this new rule, do you see the most opportunity set in your portfolio and how big are those?

你好。謝謝。請問兩個問題。莫瑞，在美國灣，美國剛剛出台了一項新規定，即井下混合。您能否告訴我們，根據這個新規則，您是否認為您的投資組合中存在最多的機會，以及這些機會有多大？

Second question is that, if indeed the commodity market become more challenging, how you contemplate or that the decision process between reducing your CapEx, which you certainly could, but how about further reducing your buyback? I mean, how do you balance between the two? Thank you.

第二個問題是，如果大宗商品市場確實變得更具挑戰性，您如何考慮，或者在減少資本支出（當然可以這樣做）和進一步減少回購之間做出決策？我的意思是，你如何在兩者之間取得平衡？謝謝。

Go ahead, Kate, on the balance between buyback and CapEx, and then I'll take the question on Gulf of America.

凱特，請繼續討論回購和資本支出之間的平衡，然後我將回答有關美國灣的問題。

Yeah, will do. Thanks. And hi, Paul. So the financial frame that we set out in February alongside our reset strategy, I think, was pretty clear in terms of how we think of the order of priority inside our financial frame. The first one we're very clear is a resilient dividend, and we've said that you should expect a 4% increase a year, and that's a floor.

是的，我會的。謝謝。你好，保羅。因此，我認為，我們在二月制定的財務框架以及我們的重置策略，在我們如何考慮財務框架內的優先順序方面非常明確。我們非常清楚的第一點是具有彈性的股息，我們已經說過，你應該預期每年的股息成長 4%，這是一個底線。

After that, balance sheet is our next priority. We are categoric in the delivery of this $14 billion to $18 billion target by 2027. After that, we look at CapEx, and we have designed the financial frame in totality to be able to be flexible, but yet ensure we can deliver on our four primary targets. We have a lot of flex in CapEx, that $13 billion to $15 billion range, and then we share excess cash with shareholders. And that's where we have positioned the share buyback in this financial frame as part of our total distributions, which are over time at around 30% to 40% of operating cash flow.

此後，資產負債表是我們的下一個優先事項。我們堅信在 2027 年就能實現 140 億至 180 億美元的目標。之後，我們研究資本支出，並設計了整體財務框架，使其具有靈活性，同時確保我們能夠實現四個主要目標。我們的資本支出有很大靈活性，在 130 億美元到 150 億美元之間，然後我們與股東分享多餘的現金。這就是我們將股票回購定位在這個財務框架中作為我們總分配的一部分的原因，隨著時間的推移，股票回購將占到我們經營現金流的 30% 到 40% 左右。

So I hope that helps you understand how we think about the prioritization. We are going to protect our balance sheet. And yes, the anchor point for us at the moment as a Board is thinking about the operating cash flow and using share buybacks as a mechanism to return excess cash to shareholders, but we'll step through that quarter by quarter.

所以我希望這能幫助你理解我們如何考慮優先順序。我們將保護我們的資產負債表。是的，作為董事會，我們目前的重點是考慮經營現金流，並使用股票回購作為向股東返還多餘現金的機制，但我們會逐季度逐步完成這一目標。

And Kate, can I ask to clarify, if that means that even in a lower oil price environment, you're still going to pay out about 30% to 40% but not below that range? Because I thought 30% to 40% is just average throughout the cycles. So if you were in particular looking at one cycle, should we have a payout lower than 30%?

凱特，我可以澄清一下嗎，這是否意味著即使在較低的油價環境下，你仍將支付約 30% 至 40% 的費用，但不會低於該範圍？因為我認為 30% 到 40% 只是整個週期的平均值。因此，如果您特別關註一個週期，我們的支出是否應該低於 30%？

30% to 40% is over time, and of course, our operating cash flow will move up and down with price, but we're not looking at it in a particular quarter. As we step towards the decision as a Board at the end of each quarter, we'll take into account what's going on inside the company, how we've performed in the quarter, but also, as I said earlier, the sort of medium-term outlook of the prices that drive our cash flow. It's not just oil, it's also gas, and it's refining margin, and we'll take into consideration all of that as we make our decisions each quarter. But we've been pretty clear, we're not going to be guiding forward on share buyback.

30%到40%是隨著時間的推移而變化的，當然，我們的經營現金流會隨著價格的上下波動，但我們不會只關注某個特定的季度。當我們作為董事會在每個季度末做出決策時，我們會考慮公司內部的情況、我們在本季度的表現，而且，正如我之前所說，我們還會考慮推動我們現金流的價格的中期前景。這不僅僅是石油，還有天然氣，還有煉油利潤，我們在每個季度做出決策時都會考慮所有這些因素。但我們已經非常明確地表示，我們不會指導股票回購。

And Paul, on downhole commingling, I suppose it's really targeted at the Paleogene, where we do see the differential pressures. Obviously, Kaskida will be our first development on that, so it's going to take a bit of time. We don't see as much potential right now inside the Miocene, but it's early and we're continuing to test that right now. So it's mainly for us right now a Paleogene question, and obviously, the Paleogene production comes later in the decade for us.

保羅，關於井下混合，我認為它實際上針對的是古近紀，在那裡我們確實看到了壓力差異。顯然，Kaskida 將是我們在此方面的第一個開發，因此這將需要一些時間。我們目前還沒有看到中新世內部有太大的潛力，但現在還為時過早，我們正在繼續測試。因此，對我們來說，現在主要是一個古近紀問題，顯然，古近紀的生產將在十年後才會出現。

Thanks for the question, Paul.

謝謝你的提問，保羅。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay. Thanks, Paul. We've got the last question. Biraj, you helped us out with the virtual ones at the start. Maybe we can hear your voice now. You've hung on to the end.

好的。謝謝，保羅。我們現在有最後一個問題。Biraj，您一開始就幫我們解決了虛擬問題。也許我們現在可以聽到你的聲音。你堅持到了最後。

Hi there. Thanks for taking my question. Just one quick clarification. It's more a modeling thing. I'm happy to follow up after. But just to comment, I think Martijn asked about the NCI charges, and I guess part of that is a hybrid, and part of that, I'm assuming, is the standing of things like TANAP and TAP. But just the comment, Kate, you made around the flip side of that, the higher interest, presumably that would result in a lower OBNC charge for the year. I'm just wondering, in that context, why the 2025 guide was still $1 billion. Thank you.

你好呀。感謝您回答我的問題。只需簡單澄清一下。這更像是一種建模的事情。我很樂意跟進。但只是為了評論一下，我認為 Martijn 詢問的是 NCI 的收費，我猜其中一部分是混合的，其中一部分，我假設，是 TANAP 和 TAP 等的地位。但是，凱特，您剛才談到了另一面，即更高的利息，大概會導致當年的 OBNC 費用降低。我只是想知道，在這種情況下，為什麼 2025 年的指南仍然是 10 億美元。謝謝。

So Biraj, the short answer is you're correct on both. Yeah, the NCI is made up of both the charges associated with the hybrid bonds, but also dividends that we pay out of bp subsidiaries where there's a level of the equity held by others, and things like divestments around pipelines fall into that category as well.

所以 Biraj，簡短的回答是，你對這兩點的看法都是正確的。是的，NCI 既包括與混合債券相關的費用，也包括我們從 bp 子公司支付的股息，這些子公司中有一定比例的股權由其他人持有，而圍繞管道的資產剝離等也屬於這一類。

Sorry, could you remind me of the second question? OBNC, yeah. So the interest income, yes, you're correct, is reported inside OBNC. We don't split it out, but the other very big component that moves OBNC around is FX and, in particular, movements on various components, including hybrid swaps. So you'll see quite a lot of FX volatility. That's the primary element that's driven the quarter-on-quarter change inside OBNC.

抱歉，您能提醒我第二個問題嗎？OBNC，是的。因此，是的，您說得對，利息收入是在 OBNC 內報告的。我們沒有將其拆分出來，但影響 OBNC 的另一個非常重要的組成部分是外匯，特別是各種組成部分的變動，包括混合掉期。因此你會看到相當多的外匯波動。這是推動 OBNC 內部季度環比變化的主要因素。

I can't predict where FX is going to go for now. What I look at is my underlying spend and my underlying expectation with regard to costs and income going through the year. And at the moment, the guidance feels about right, but we'll, of course, review that when we get to the second quarter and we look again at the full year.

我現在無法預測 FX 將會走向何方。我關注的是我全年的基本支出以及對成本和收入的基本預期。目前，該指引感覺是正確的，但當然，當我們進入第二季並再次回顧全年時，我們會對其進行審查。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thank you. Thanks, Biraj. And thank you, Kate. Thank you, Murray.

謝謝。謝謝，Biraj。謝謝你，凱特。謝謝你，默里。

We're going to close the call there. We've managed to get through all the questions. Thank you for raising them, and I'd just like to thank you again for the patience at the start of the call. We'll certainly be looking into what happened there, very unusual.

我們將就此結束通話。我們設法解答了所有問題。感謝您提出這些問題，我只想再次感謝您在通話開始時的耐心。我們一定會調查那裡發生的事情，這非常不尋常。

So I think we'll close the call on that note. And on behalf of Murray, Kate, and myself, thanks very much for listening and for your interest in bp's results today.

所以我想我們就此結束通話。我代表 Murray、Kate 和我本人，非常感謝大家的聆聽以及對今天 bp 結果的關注。