英國石油 (BP) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the BP presentation to the financial community webcast and conference call. I'll now hand over to Craig Marshall, Head of Investor Relations.

歡迎觀看 BP 向金融界網路廣播和電話會議所做的演示。現在我將把工作交給投資者關係主管克雷格馬歇爾 (Craig Marshall)。

Good morning, and welcome to BP's third quarter 2020 financial results. I'm Craig Marshall, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. And I'm joined here today by Bernard Looney, Chief Executive Officer; and Murray Auchincloss, Chief Financial Officer. In a moment, Murray will take you through the third quarter financial results before Bernard outlines the performance of our businesses as we continue to progress the transformation of BP. There will then be time to take your questions at the end.

早安，歡迎閱讀 BP 2020 年第三季財務表現。我是克雷格‧馬歇爾，投資人關係資深副總裁。今天，執行長伯納德·盧尼 (Bernard Looney) 也加入了我的行列。和財務長 Murray Auchincloss。稍後，穆雷將向您介紹第三季的財務業績，然後伯納德將概述我們在繼續推進 BP 轉型過程中的業務表現。最後將有時間回答您的問題。

Before I hand to Murray, let me first draw your attention to our cautionary statement. During today's presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our U.K. and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.

在我向默里發言之前，讓我先提請您注意我們的警告聲明。在今天的演講中，我們將做出涉及我們的估計、計劃和期望的前瞻性陳述。由於我們在這張投影片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會的文件中註意到的因素，實際結果和結果可能會存在重大差異。更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 備案文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上找到。

I'll now hand over to Murray.

現在我將把任務交給穆雷。

Thanks, Craig, and welcome, everyone. So let's begin with the macro environment. After a sharp contraction in the first half of the year, there have been some early signs of global economic recovery as countries move to more regional or localized restrictions on movement and governments continue to offer monetary and fiscal policy stimulus.

謝謝克雷格，歡迎大家。那我們先從宏觀環境開始。在經歷了上半年的大幅收縮之後，隨著各國採取更多區域性或局部性的流動限制以及各國政府繼續提供貨幣和財政政策刺激，全球經濟已經出現一些復甦的早期跡象。

Reflecting this, Brent averaged $43 in the third quarter, a 45% increase versus the second quarter. Gas prices were also stronger. Henry Hub averaged $2, driven by strong demand in the power sector and a higher level of U.S. LNG exports. NBP and JKM gas prices also improved quarter-on-quarter. However, refining margins remained weak with an RMM of $6.20, similar to the level seen in the second quarter, reflecting lower demand due to COVID-19 and excess refining capacity.

反映這一點的是，第三季布蘭特原油均價為 43 美元，較第二季上漲 45%。天然氣價格也走強。受電力產業強勁需求和美國液化天然氣出口水準提高的推動，亨利中心平均價格為 2 美元。 NBP 和 JKM 天然氣價格也較上季上漲。然而，煉油利潤率仍然疲軟，RMM 為 6.20 美元，與第二季度的水平相似，反映出由於 COVID-19 和煉油產能過剩導致需求下降。

Looking ahead, the gradual recovery in oil demand seen since the spring looks set to continue, led by strengthening demand in Asia. And while the current concerns around rising cases of COVID-19 across Europe and North America is creating some uncertainty, the IEA continues to estimate an increase of around 6 million barrels a day of demand in 2021 as economies continue to open up.

展望未來，在亞洲需求走強的帶動下，春季以來石油需求的逐步復甦似乎將持續下去。儘管目前對歐洲和北美各地不斷增加的 COVID-19 病例的擔憂正在造成一些不確定性，但 IEA 繼續估計，隨著經濟繼續開放，2021 年需求將增加約 600 萬桶/日。

The OPEC+ production cuts have played a major role in stabilizing the market. And we are already seeing a reduction in crude and product inventories. Inventories are likely to draw through next year, although the pace at which inventories normalize will depend on the strength of economic recovery and the degree of continued OPEC+ compliance.

OPEC+減產對穩定市場發揮了重要作用。我們已經看到原油和產品庫存減少。明年庫存可能會耗盡，但庫存正常化的速度將取決於經濟復甦的強度和 OPEC+ 持續履約的程度。

On gas, U.S. gas supply is expected to continue on a declining trend in 2021, largely due to a drop in associated gas production. Tightening gas balances have caused the prompt price to rise to $2.80 and futures curves for Henry Hub now average above $3 for 2021. This should provide some support to pricing in Europe and Asia until more gas comes to the market.

天然氣方面，預計 2021 年美國天然氣供應將持續呈下降趨勢，主要原因是伴隨生氣產量下降。天然氣平衡收緊導致價格迅速上漲至 2.80 美元，而 Henry Hub 2021 年的期貨曲線目前平均高於 3 美元。這應該會為歐洲和亞洲的定價提供一些支持，直到更多天然氣進入市場。

Finally, the refining margin outlook remains challenging, given the record high inventory levels and the leveling off in demand recovery for gasoline and jet fuel due to COVID-19. It is likely to remain so until we see a recovery in demand or further reductions in refinery runs.

最後，鑑於庫存水準創歷史新高，並且由於 COVID-19 導致汽油和航空燃油需求復甦趨於平穩，煉油利潤率前景仍然充滿挑戰。在我們看到需求復甦或煉油廠產量進一步減少之前，這種情況可能會持續下去。

Looking at BP's underlying results. We reported a third quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $100 million compared to a loss of $6.7 billion in the second quarter. Compared to the second quarter, this reflects the absence of significant exploration write-offs, higher liquids realizations and improved marketing demand. This was partly offset by a significantly lower oil trading contribution.

看看 BP 的基本績效。我們報告第三季基本重置成本利潤為 1 億美元，而第二季則虧損 67 億美元。與第二季相比，這反映出沒有大量的勘探沖銷、更高的流動性變現以及行銷需求的改善。這在一定程度上被石油貿易貢獻的大幅下降所抵消。

Compared to a year ago, the result reflects lower liquids and gas realizations, lower refining margins and a lower Rosneft contribution. This was partly offset by lower DD&A following the impairments taken in the second quarter of this year. The third quarter dividend, payable in the fourth quarter, remains unchanged at $0.0525 per ordinary share.

與一年前相比，這一結果反映出液體和天然氣產量下降、煉油利潤下降以及俄羅斯石油公司的貢獻下降。今年第二季減損後 DD&A 的下降部分抵銷了這一影響。第三季股利將於第四季支付，仍維持在每股普通股 0.0525 美元不變。

Turning to cash flow and our balance sheet. Reflecting the adjustment to our distribution policy communicated with second quarter results, it's worth focusing on the third quarter. In the third quarter, BP generated a cash inflow of $600 million despite the ongoing impact of COVID-19, hurricane outages of high-margin production in the Gulf of Mexico and cash outflows for acquisitions. As a result, the end of the quarter net debt declined to $40.4 billion.

轉向現金流和我們的資產負債表。反映我們對第二季業績傳達的分配政策的調整，值得關注第三季。儘管受到 COVID-19 的持續影響、墨西哥灣高利潤生產的颶風中斷以及收購現金流出，但第三季 BP 仍產生了 6 億美元的現金流入。結果，季末淨債務下降至 404 億美元。

Supported by our actions on cost and capital discipline, in the third quarter, our cash balance point was around $42 a barrel, including acquisitions. This was in line with the average Brent oil price in the quarter despite weak refining margins, lower gas prices and reduced product demand. Net debt was $11 billion lower than at the end of the first quarter, including the proceeds of hybrid bond issuance during the second quarter. This represents substantial progress towards our objective of deleveraging to $35 billion.

在我們的成本和資本紀律行動的支持下，第三季我們的現金平衡點約為每桶 42 美元，其中包括收購。儘管煉油利潤疲軟、天然氣價格下降和產品需求減少，但這與本季布蘭特原油平均價格一致。淨債務比第一季末減少了 110 億美元，其中包括第二季混合債券發行的收益。這代表我們在實現去槓桿化至 350 億美元的目標方面取得了重大進展。

In summary, we have a disciplined capital allocation framework, which has the dividend as the first priority. We are deleveraging to support our resilient balance sheet and a strong investment-grade credit rating. We remain focused on operational delivery, cost and capital discipline and progressing our divestment program. And Bernard will talk more about this in a moment.

總而言之，我們有一個嚴格的資本配置框架，其中股利是第一要務。我們正在去槓桿化，以支持我們富有彈性的資產負債表和強大的投資等級信用評級。我們仍然專注於營運交付、成本和資本紀律以及推進我們的撤資計劃。伯納德稍後將詳細討論這一點。

Turning lastly to the outlook and our guidance. Looking at the fourth quarter, in the Upstream, we expect reported production to be slightly lower than the third quarter due to maintenance activity, while in the Downstream, we expect continued pressure on industry refining margins and for marketing volumes to remain impacted by COVID-19 restrictions.

最後談談展望和我們的指引。展望第四季度，在上游，由於維護活動，我們預計報告的產量將略低於第三季度，而在下游，我們預計行業煉油利潤率和營銷量將繼續受到新冠疫情的影響。19 限制。

Looking at our full year guidance. We continue to expect Upstream production to be lower than 2019 and organic capital expenditure to be around $12 billion. We now expect 2020 full year DD&A to be around 15% lower than 2019, reflecting the impact of impairments taken in the second quarter. We expect the post-tax charge for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments to be around $1.5 billion in 2020.

看看我們的全年指導。我們仍預期上游產量將低於 2019 年，有機資本支出約為 120 億美元。我們現在預計 2020 年全年 DD&A 將比 2019 年低 15% 左右，反映了第二季減損的影響。我們預計 2020 年墨西哥灣漏油賠償的稅後費用約為 15 億美元。

And the other business and corporate underlying quarterly charge is expected to be around $350 million. Consistent with the reinvent BP program, we expect to incur people-related costs, including redundancy payments of around $1.4 billion over the next 1 to 2 years with the majority in 2020.

其他業務和企業的基本季度費用預計約為 3.5 億美元。與重塑 BP 計劃一致，我們預計將產生與人員相關的成本，包括未來 1 至 2 年內約 14 億美元的裁員費用，其中大部分在 2020 年發生。

Finally, as a reminder, we will start reporting under our new organizational structure on a post-tax segmental basis effective January 1, 2021. We intend to provide pro forma numbers to assist in modeling the new organization shortly after our fourth quarter results and well ahead of our reporting our first quarter on this new basis.

最後，提醒一下，我們將從2021 年1 月1 日起開始在新的組織結構下以稅後分部為基礎進行報告。我們打算在第四季度業績公佈後不久提供預計數據，以協助對新組織進行建模。在我們在此新基礎上報告第一季之前。

I will now hand over to Bernard, who's going to speak more about our operational and financial progress.

我現在將交給伯納德，他將更多地談論我們的營運和財務進展。

Thanks, Murray, and hello to everyone on the call. It's great to be joining you today. I won't replay what Murray has just covered. Whilst our results today are reflective of the tough environment we are operating in, I hope they also show a clear story of robust underlying performance from our businesses.

謝謝穆雷，並向通話中的每個人問好。很高興今天能加入你們的行列。我不會重播穆雷剛剛報道的內容。雖然我們今天的業績反映了我們所處的嚴峻經營環境，但我希望它們也能清楚地展示我們業務強勁的基本業績。

This is what I want to talk about today. We've set out our stall on where we're taking BP and made some great progress over the last several months, as you can see on this slide. But now it's about getting on with the business of business.

這就是我今天要講的。正如您在這張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們已經在 BP 的方向上做好了準備，並在過去幾個月中取得了一些重大進展。但現在是為了繼續做生意。

As we said in September, this is not about altruism or charity. This is about value creation. We will be judged by our actions, not by our words, by day-to-day delivery. And that is where we are 100%-focused with an absolute focus on operational excellence so that our businesses are safe, reliable and efficient in order to deliver our growth and returns target to 2025, underpinned by a resilient financial frame and a disciplined approach to capital allocation.

正如我們在九月所說，這與利他主義或慈善無關。這是關於價值創造的。我們將透過我們的行動來評判，而不是透過我們的言語，透過日常的表現。這就是我們 100% 專注於卓越營運的地方，以便我們的業務安全、可靠和高效，以實現我們到 2025 年的成長和回報目標，並以有彈性的財務框架和嚴格的方法為基礎資本配置。

This is what we mean by performing while transforming. And today, we are sharing clear evidence of that, driving capital and cost efficiency in our resilient and focused hydrocarbon businesses, driving growth in convenience and mobility through a focus on our customers, building scale in our low-carbon businesses through capital and returns discipline and doing so while delivering divestments and reducing debt.

這就是我們所說的邊轉型邊表演。今天，我們正在分享這方面的明確證據，推動我們富有彈性且專注的碳氫化合物業務的資本和成本效率，透過專注於客戶來推動便利性和流動性的成長，透過資本和回報紀律來擴大我們的低碳業務的規模並在這樣做的同時進行撤資和減少債務。

Let me take each in turn. I want to start with the engine room of BP, our resilient and focused hydrocarbon business. We believe it is a high-quality business with great assets and resource options. From this foundation, we will create further value by delivering our suite of major projects, continuing to drive cost down and improve capital productivity, focusing capital on the very best opportunities with an increasing emphasis on leveraging existing infrastructure and, as and when the market is right, divesting non-core assets for value. As a result of these actions, we expect to grow underlying production over the next 12 to 18 months. And we expect to grow headline EBITDA through to 2025 even after divestments.

讓我依序談談。我想從 BP 的機房開始，這是我們富有彈性且專注的碳氫化合物業務。我們相信這是一家擁有豐富資產和資源選擇的高品質企業。在此基礎上，我們將透過交付一系列重大項目、持續降低成本並提高資本生產力、將資本集中在最佳機會、越來越重視利用現有基礎設施以及在市場出現變化時創造更多價值。對，剝離非核心資產以獲取價值。由於這些行動，我們預計未來 12 至 18 個月的基礎產量將會成長。我們預計，即使在撤資之後，整體 EBITDA 仍將成長到 2025 年。

Let me go into each of these actions in a bit more detail. First, we plan to improve the margin mix of our underlying production through continued major project delivery. Earlier this month, we announced the startup of Ghazeer, the second phase of the Block 61-type gas development in Oman. At capacity, we expect the 2 phases, Khazzan and Ghazeer, to produce 1.5 billion cubic feet a day and over 65,000 barrels oil equivalent per day of condensate. This project exemplifies resilient hydrocarbons.

讓我更詳細地介紹每一項行動。首先，我們計劃透過持續的重大專案交付來改善基礎生產的利潤率組合。本月早些時候，我們宣布啟動 Ghazeer，這是阿曼 Block 61 型天然氣開發的第二階段。就產能而言，我們預計 Khazzan 和 Ghazeer 兩期工程每天可生產 15 億立方英尺的凝析油，每天可生產超過 65,000 桶油當量的凝析油。該項目體現了彈性碳氫化合物的特點。

Ghazeer was delivered with capital discipline and in just 33 months ahead of the scheduled 2021 startup. We are seeing continuous improvement in our drilling program with wells being delivered on record time and at lower cost and with lower emissions. Additionally, early indications show a richer condensate mix than anticipated. Startup of Ghazeer is another important milestone in our partnership with Oman, a partnership we will further strengthen as we commence exploration activities on Block 77.

Ghazeer 的交付符合資本紀律，僅比預定的 2021 年啟動時間提早了 33 個月。我們看到我們的鑽井計劃不斷改進，以創紀錄的時間、更低的成本和更低的排放交付了油井。此外，早期跡象顯示凝結水混合物比預期更豐富。 Ghazeer 的啟動是我們與阿曼合作的另一個重要里程碑，隨著我們開始 77 區塊的勘探活動，我們將進一步加強這種合作關係。

The second major project startup was Atlantis Phase 3 in August, a subsea tieback to the Atlantis platform in the Gulf of Mexico. It is a great example of this sort of fast-payback, high-return project we are prioritizing in our capital allocation. This project was delivered on time and on budget despite the impact of COVID-19. Along with an impressive safety record, drilling completions and offshore construction were executed with 0 personal injuries and 0 regulatory compliance issues, a fantastic achievement. Looking forward, we are on track to deliver the remaining 2020 major projects: Raven, KG D6 R-Series and Vorlich.

第二個重大項目是八月份啟動的亞特蘭提斯三期項目，該項目是墨西哥灣亞特蘭提斯平台的海底回接項目。這是我們在資本配置中優先考慮的此類快速回報、高回報項目的一個很好的例子。儘管受到 COVID-19 的影響，該項目仍按時、按預算交付。除了令人印象深刻的安全記錄外，鑽井完井和海上施工還實現了零人身傷害和零監管合規問題，這是一項了不起的成就。展望未來，我們預計將交付 2020 年剩餘的主要項目：Raven、KG D6 R-Series 和 Vorlich。

Second, we are transforming our operations to drive cost and capital efficiency. Our unit production costs are down 10% in the first 3 quarters compared to the same period a year ago. This was enabled by progress on the efficiency of our operations with continued reductions in underlying operating costs and the impact of strategic divestments. We are also focusing on capital efficiency. A good example of this is the transformation agenda in our wells organization, changing the way we work using centralized and agile teams in well planning and execution.

其次，我們正在轉變營運方式以提高成本和資本效率。前三季我們的單位生產成本比去年同期下降了10%。這是由於我們營運效率的進步、基本營運成本的持續降低以及策略性撤資的影響而實現的。我們也關注資本效率。一個很好的例子就是我們油井組織的轉型議程，它改變了我們在井規劃和執行中使用集中和敏捷的團隊的工作方式。

Recently, one rig, managed from the U.K., drilled a record-breaking well in Mauritania and Senegal before moving to Egypt, where it delivered BP's lowest-cost Oligocene well in Atoll North. And the same rig, managed by the same team in the U.K., has now moved to Angola and has commenced infill drilling operations there.

最近，英國管理的一個鑽井平台在茅利塔尼亞和塞內加爾鑽出了破紀錄的油井，然後轉移到埃及，在埃及交付了英國石油公司在北環礁的成本最低的漸新世油井。由英國同一團隊管理的同一台鑽機現已移至安哥拉並開始在那裡進行加密鑽井作業。

Focusing on well construction design, multiple projects have helped to increase our top quartiles wells by 15% in the first 3 quarters compared to the same period a year ago. One example is our Atlantis Phase 3 wells, where optimizing casing design enabled the removal of a string, saving time and money. And we have maintained our wells' reliability at over 96% year-to-date, in part due to our progress on mitigating deferrals from safety valve failures and well performance issues.

以建井設計為重點，多個項目幫助我們前三季的前四分位數井較去年同期增加了15%。一個例子是我們的 Atlantis 三期井，其中優化套管設計可以拆除管柱，從而節省時間和金錢。今年迄今為止，我們的油井可靠性保持在 96% 以上，部分原因是我們在減少安全閥故障和油井性能問題造成的延期方面取得了進展。

Third, we are in action to drive value through our investment decisions. We are on track to deliver reduced capital spend in 2020, consistent with the guidance provided earlier this year. We are utilizing short-cycle flexibility in BPX Energy and optimizing spend across the portfolio. And in line with our focus on maximizing the value of past investments, we are focusing our exploration spend on existing hubs. In the last 12 months, we have a success rate of 100% on our infrastructure-led exploration program with 7 out of 7 on wells, adding resources around existing assets in the Gulf of Mexico, in Trinidad and in Egypt, all of which could be developed with short-cycle times.

第三，我們正在採取行動，透過我們的投資決策來推動價值。我們預計在 2020 年減少資本支出，這與今年稍早提供的指導一致。我們正在利用 BPX Energy 的短週期靈活性並優化整個投資組合的支出。根據我們對過去投資價值最大化的關注，我們將勘探支出集中在現有樞紐。在過去12 個月中，我們以基礎設施為主導的勘探計畫的成功率為100%，其中7 個油井中有7 個是油井，圍繞墨西哥灣、特立尼達和埃及的現有資產增加了資源，所有這些都可以開發週期短。

Turning to convenience and mobility. There has been a lot of interest in this business since bp week in September. It is an integral part of our growth and return strategy as we look to 2021 and beyond. Under our new organizational structure, we plan to provide ongoing disclosures to help the market better understand its financial contribution and growth potential.

轉向便利性和移動性。自 9 月的 bp 週以來，人們對這項業務產生了濃厚的興趣。這是我們展望 2021 年及以後成長和回報策略不可或缺的一部分。在我們新的組織結構下，我們計劃提供持續的揭露，以幫助市場更好地了解其財務貢獻和成長潛力。

This is a business which has scale, delivering around $5 billion of EBITDA in 2019, a track record of growth at around 7% per annum since 2014 and excellent returns, generating a ROACE of more than 20% in 2019. We aim to nearly double the EBITDA by 2030 with ROACE of between 15% and 20%. This growth will be driven by businesses that we know well and have a strong track record.

這是一家具有規模的業務，2019 年實現約 50 億美元的 EBITDA，自 2014 年以來每年增長約 7%，回報豐厚，2019 年 ROACE 超過 20%。我們的目標是實現近一倍的增長到2030年，EBITDA 的ROACE 介於15% 至20% 之間。這一成長將由我們熟悉且擁有良好業績記錄的業務推動。

We are expanding in growth markets. In July, we completed the formation of Jio-bp, our Indian fuels and mobility joint venture with Reliance, more than doubling the number of retail sites in growth markets to around 2,700. With plans to grow to 5,500 retail sites in India over the next 5 years, this is a key contributor to our target of 7,000 retail sites in growth markets by 2025 and is an important source of expected EBITDA growth.

我們正在擴大成長市場。 7 月，我們與 Reliance 完成了 Jio-bp 的組建，這是我們在印度的燃料和旅遊合資企業，使成長市場中的零售站點數量增加了一倍多，達到約 2,700 個。我們計劃在未來 5 年內將印度的零售站點增至 5,500 個，這是我們實現 2025 年在成長市場中擁有 7,000 個零售站點的目標的關鍵貢獻者，也是預期 EBITDA 成長的重要來源。

And in Castrol, we delivered a strong recovery in the third quarter with volumes growing by more than 5% in China and in India. As we look to '21 and beyond, we will focus on making this business better through our improvement plan, integration with mobility and investing in the strong brand that helps make Castrol such a resilient business.

嘉實多第三季實現了強勁復甦，中國和印度的銷量成長了 5% 以上。展望 21 世紀及以後，我們將專注於透過我們的改進計劃、與移動性的整合以及投資強大的品牌來使這項業務變得更好，從而幫助嘉實多成為一家具有彈性的業務。

We are redefining convenience. In the third quarter, our like-for-like convenience gross margins was 4% higher compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the strength of our customer offer. This was an important contributor to 3% year-on-year growth in fuels market earnings in the third quarter despite COVID-19-driven fuels demand impact of 7% in retail and around 60% in aviation. We have continued to grow the number of strategic convenience sites, a key part of our strategy to redefine convenience for our customers and deliver our 2025 target of more than 2,300.

我們正在重新定義便利。第三季度，我們的便利商店同類毛利率比去年同期高出 4%，證明了我們客戶服務的實力。儘管 COVID-19 驅動的燃料需求對零售業和航空業的影響分別為 7% 和 60% 左右，但這是第三季燃料市場收益年增 3% 的重要貢獻者。我們持續增加策略性便利站點的數量，這是我們為客戶重新定義便利性並實現 2025 年超過 2,300 個的目標的策略的關鍵部分。

In next-generation mobility, we now have more than 8,500 electric charging points globally and continue with our growth plans. Earlier this month, BP Chargemaster was awarded the U.K.'s largest ever EV infrastructure contract by Police Scotland to deliver more than 1,000 charging points over the next 4 years. And we are also in action to build a network of ultrafast charging across Germany, beginning with the rollout of more than 100 charging points at Aral retail sites over the next 12 months.

在下一代出行領域，我們目前在全球擁有超過 8,500 個充電站，並將繼續實施我們的成長計畫。本月早些時候，BP Chargemaster 獲得了蘇格蘭警察局授予的英國有史以來最大的電動車基礎設施合同，將在未來 4 年內提供 1,000 多個充電站。我們也正在採取行動，在德國各地建立超快速充電網絡，首先將在未來 12 個月內在 Aral 零售站點推出 100 多個充電點。

Turning to low carbon. We are putting in place the building blocks to grow scale and deliver on our returns target. We are building on our established businesses and looking for new and emerging opportunities with further progress in the third quarter.

轉向低碳。我們正在建立基礎來擴大規模並實現我們的回報目標。我們正在鞏固現有業務，並尋找新的和正在出現的機會，並在第三季度取得進一步進展。

In the U.S., we announced our first entry into offshore wind through a partnership with Equinor. It includes the development of existing offshore wind leases on the U.S. East Coast and the agreement to jointly pursue further opportunities for offshore wind. Equinor has recently submitted bids into New York's second round offshore wind round. The state is accepting proposals for up to 2.5 gigawatts of offshore wind and a multiport infrastructure investment plan.

在美國，我們宣布透過與 Equinor 合作首次進軍離岸風電領域。它包括開發美國東海岸現有的離岸風電租賃，以及共同尋求更多離岸風電機會的協議。 Equinor 最近向紐約第二輪離岸風電計畫提交了投標。該州正在接受高達 2.5 吉瓦的離岸風電和多港口基礎設施投資計畫的提案。

Lightsource BP completed several financing and acquisition deals in the U.S. and Europe and finished construction of 3 solar sites in Franklin County, Pennsylvania. These sites will deliver electricity to Penn State University under a 70-megawatt power purchase agreement and will provide over 100 million kilowatt hours of electricity in year 1. This is a business with a proven track record of growth. And since 2018, 18 of the projects delivered have achieved returns in the 8% to 10% range or above.

Lightsource BP 在美國和歐洲完成了多項融資和收購交易，並在賓夕法尼亞州富蘭克林縣完成了 3 個太陽能站點的建設。這些站點將根據 70 兆瓦的購電協議向賓州州立大學提供電力，並將在第一年提供超過 1 億千瓦時的電力。這是一項有著良好成長記錄的業務。自2018年以來，已交付的專案中有18個實現了8%至10%或以上的回報。

In China, the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable market, we signed a memorandum of understanding with JinkoPower Technology, a leading solar project developer. The partnership will seek to provide integrated decarbonized energy solutions and services to customers, further supporting China's aim of reaching 50% of power generation from nonfossil fuels by 2030.

在中國這個全球最大、成長最快的再生能源市場，我們與領先的太陽能專案開發商晶科能源簽署了諒解備忘錄。此次合作將致力於為客戶提供一體化的脫碳能源解決方案和服務，進一步支持中國到2030年實現50%發電來自非化石燃料的目標。

And we recently announced a partnership with Microsoft, under which the 2 companies will cooperate to progress their sustainability aims. As part of this, BP has agreed to supply Microsoft with renewable energy and to extend its use of Microsoft cloud-based services.

我們最近宣布與微軟建立合作關係，兩家公司將合作推動其永續發展目標。作為其中的一部分，英國石油公司已同意向微軟提供再生能源，並擴大其對微軟基於雲端的服務的使用。

This is a strategy of value, not volume. As we build and grow these businesses and transform our company, we will exercise rigor and discipline in our investment choices, pursuing only those opportunities that we believe can generate the returns we and our shareholders expect.

這是一種價值策略，而不是數量策略。當我們建立和發展這些業務以及改造我們的公司時，我們將在投資選擇中嚴格遵守紀律，只追求那些我們認為能夠產生我們和股東期望回報的機會。

Looking in more detail at our disciplined approach to investment. We are on track to deliver capital spend of around $12 billion in 2020, excluding inorganics. This is a reduction of around 25% relative to our plans laid out at the start of the year and is a consequence of our decisive action to further strengthen our financial frame. Looking ahead, we expect investment in 2021 to be at the lower end of our $13 billion to $15 billion guidance, including inorganics. And we have further flexibility to respond should the environment deteriorate further. As ever, as we invest to involve our capital employed, we will exercise rigor and discipline, applying stringent hurdle rates and taking decisions to create sustainable long-term value.

更詳細地了解我們嚴格的投資方法。我們預計在 2020 年實現約 120 億美元的資本支出（不包括無機資本）。與我們年初制定的計畫相比，這一數字減少了約 25%，也是我們採取果斷行動進一步加強財務框架的結果。展望未來，我們預計 2021 年的投資將處於 130 億至 150 億美元指引的下限，其中包括無機投資。如果環境進一步惡化，我們有更大的彈性來應對。一如既往，當我們投資涉及我們的資本時，我們將嚴格遵守紀律，採用嚴格的最低門檻利率並做出決策以創造可持續的長期價值。

We are also focused on driving efficiency through our cost base. And as shown in the journey from 2014, we have a track record of delivery. At the end of the third quarter, year-to-date cash costs were down 11% relative to the same period in 2019. This demonstrates the swift and decisive action we have taken to strengthen BP's financial frame during volatile and challenging market conditions.

我們也致力於透過成本基礎提高效率。正如 2014 年以來的歷程所示，我們擁有良好的交付記錄。截至第三季末，年初至今的現金成本較 2019 年同期下降了 11%。這表明我們在動盪和充滿挑戰的市場條件下為加強 BP 的財務框架而採取了迅速而果斷的行動。

To set the context, this means that for 2020, cash costs are expected to be down around 30% since 2014. And there is further to go with BP's reinvent program and associated cost reduction gathering momentum. This program not only supports our commitment to deliver $2.5 billion of pretax cash cost savings by the end of '21 relative to 2019, but it also underpins our target to deliver $3 billion to $4 billion of pretax cash cost savings by 2023.

就背景而言，這意味著到 2020 年，現金成本預計將自 2014 年以來下降 30% 左右。隨著 BP 的重塑計劃和相關成本削減的勢頭不斷增強，還有進一步的發展空間。該計劃不僅支持我們在 21 年底相對 2019 年節省 25 億美元稅前現金成本的承諾，而且還支持我們在 2023 年實現 30 億至 40 億美元稅前現金成本節省的目標。

reinvent will see us create a BP that is a leaner and faster-moving company as we reorganize to drive centralization and remove duplication, invest in digital to drive further efficiency and achieve operational efficiencies through a strategic approach to our supply chain. A key part of this program is the reorganization of BP. The plan is on track with the new organization fully defined and on schedule to be in place by the end of this year. We have already fully defined the extended leadership team, cutting the number of senior executive positions in half from 240 to 120.

重塑將讓我們創建一個更精簡、發展更快的 BP，我們將進行重組以推動集中化和消除重複，投資數位化以進一步提高效率，並透過供應鏈策略方法實現營運效率。該計劃的關鍵部分是英國石油公司的重組。該計劃正在按計劃進行，新組織已完全確定並按計劃於今年年底到位。我們已經完全確定了領導團隊的擴展，將高階管理職位的數量從 240 人減少到 120 人。

In total, BP's headcount has reduced by around 2,800 so far during 2020. And this includes around 300 people who have already left the organization as part of our reinvent bp program. A further 2,100 have elected to leave under reinvent bp. And we continue to expect a total reduction of around 10,000 positions, the majority of which will happen by the end of this year. And we are removing layers. In the new organization, around 50% of roles will be within 5 layers of the CEO. This compares to just 20% in the legacy organization.

到目前為止，2020 年 BP 的員工總數已減少約 2,800 人。其中包括作為我們重塑 bp 計劃一部分而已經離開該組織的約 300 人。另有 2,100 人選擇在 Reinvent bp 領導下離開。我們仍然預計職位總數將減少約 10,000 個，其中大部分將在今年年底前完成。我們正在去除層。在新組織中，大約 50% 的職位將位於執行長以下的 5 層範圍內。相較之下，傳統組織中的比例僅為 20%。

In addition, we are focused on driving cost savings through digital and operational efficiencies. And we are making progress here, too. We have put in place the governance structures to enable zero-based budgeting across our supply chain in advance of further rollout. We expect the bulk of these savings to be delivered between 2021 and 2023. We are bringing together all of our finance and procurement activities for the group in one place, effective from the start of 2021.

此外，我們也致力於透過數位化和營運效率來節省成本。我們在這裡也取得了進展。我們已經建立了治理結構，以便在進一步推出之前在整個供應鏈中實現零基預算。我們預計大部分節省將在 2021 年至 2023 年間實現。我們將從 2021 年初起將集團的所有財務和採購活動集中到一個地方。

And we continue to invest in digital to deliver incremental value to the group. For example, in the third quarter, we completed full alignment of our exploration and production financial systems on to one common template. This will contribute to lower back-office costs while enabling improved operational and cost efficiency in the field. A different field-based example is our continued rollout of robotic crawler technology to reduce third-party inspection and maintenance costs. Finally, we continue to make progress executing our divestment program, lowering our cash balance point and deleveraging our balance sheet.

我們持續投資數位化，為集團創造增量價值。例如，在第三季度，我們完成了勘探和生產財務系統與一個通用模板的全面調整。這將有助於降低後台成本，同時提高現場營運和成本效率。另一個基於現場的例子是我們不斷推出機器人履帶技術，以減少第三方檢查和維護成本。最後，我們繼續在執行撤資計畫、降低現金平衡點和去槓桿化資產負債表方面取得進展。

Starting with divestments. We have already completed our agreed transactions approaching half of our target of $25 billion proceeds by 2025. This includes the sale of our petrochemicals business to INEOS, which we expect to complete during the fourth quarter. As we look forward, we have a deep hopper of potential divestment options. And as we execute this program, we will continue to be focused on value. We are not in a rush and we will wait for competitive pricing.

從撤資開始。我們已經完成了商定的交易，接近 2025 年 250 億美元收益目標的一半。這包括將我們的石化業務出售給 INEOS，我們預計將在第四季度完成。展望未來，我們有大量潛在的撤資選擇。當我們執行這個計劃時，我們將繼續專注於價值。我們並不著急，我們會等待有競爭力的價格。

Moving to the cash balance point. As Murray has already mentioned, in the third quarter, our cash balance point, including acquisitions, was around $42 a barrel. This is in line with the average Brent oil price in the quarter despite weak refining margins, low gas prices and reduced product demand. Taken together, our actions on cost and capital efficiency, divestments and capital structure have allowed us to reduce our net debt to $40.4 billion at the end of the third quarter compared to $51.4 billion at the end of the first quarter. As we look forward, we expect net debt to fall again in the fourth quarter, supporting our objective of maintaining a strong investment-grade credit rating and marking further progress towards our $35 billion net debt target. As a reminder, within our capital allocation framework, this represents the trigger to commence buybacks.

轉向現金平衡點。正如莫瑞已經提到的，在第三季度，我們的現金平衡點（包括收購）約為每桶 42 美元。儘管煉油利潤疲軟、天然氣價格較低且產品需求減少，但這與本季布蘭特原油平均價格一致。總而言之，我們在成本和資本效率、撤資和資本結構方面採取的行動使我們在第三季末將淨債務減少至 404 億美元，而第一季末為 514 億美元。展望未來，我們預計第四季淨債務將再次下降，支持我們維持強勁投資等級信用評等的目標，並標誌著我們在實現 350 億美元淨債務目標方面取得進一步進展。提醒一下，在我們的資本配置框架內，這代表了開始回購的觸發因素。

So in summary, we are making strong progress, performing while transforming: delivering tangible operational progress relative to our strategic objectives; EBITDA growth in resilient and focused hydrocarbons to 2025 even after divestments; in convenience and mobility, nearly doubling EBITDA by 2030 with ROACE of 15% to 20% through a focus on growth markets, convenience retail and next-gen mobility; and achieving stable returns of 8% to 10% in low-carbon electricity and energy, demonstrating capital discipline and a clear focus on value as we build capability and scale.

總而言之，我們在轉型的同時取得了巨大進展：實現了與我們的策略目標相關的實際的營運進展；即使在撤資後，彈性且專注的碳氫化合物業務的 EBITDA 仍將成長至 2025 年；在便利性和移動性方面，透過重點關注成長市場、便利零售和下一代行動性，到 2030 年，EBITDA 幾乎翻倍，ROACE 達到 15% 至 20%；在低碳電力和能源領域實現 8% 至 10% 的穩定回報，在我們建立能力和規模時展示資本紀律和對價值的明確關注。

Together, with our disciplined and resilient financial frame, this underpins the confidence we have in our investor proposition, that is committed distributions, including the dividend as the #1 priority within our capital allocation framework, profitable growth and sustainable value, all in service of delivering long-term value to shareholders. That's our job.

再加上我們紀律嚴明、富有彈性的財務框架，這鞏固了我們對投資者主張的信心，即承諾分配，包括將股息作為我們資本配置框架內的第一優先事項、盈利增長和可持續價值，所有這些都服務於為股東創造長期價值。這就是我們的工作。

Thank you for your time today. Now Murray, Craig and I will take your questions.

感謝您今天抽出時間。現在莫瑞、克雷格和我將回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Okay. Thank you again to everybody for listening. We're going to turn to the Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) And on that note, I think we'll take the first question from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.

好的。再次感謝大家的聆聽。我們將進入問答環節。 （操作員說明）就此而言，我想我們將回答巴克萊銀行 Lydia Rainforth 提出的第一個問題。

Two questions, if I could. The first one, Bernard, just picking up on the question about delivery, and you gave lots of examples there. Can you just point us to what things over the next 6 months that we should really be thinking about in terms of what you see as a key delivery point? Because there's been a lot of significant things changing but just those key results for the next 6 months.

如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個，伯納德，剛剛談到了關於交付的問題，你在那裡舉了很多例子。您能否向我們指出，在您認為的關鍵交付點方面，未來 6 個月我們應該真正考慮哪些事情？因為有很多重大的事情發生了變化，但只有未來 6 個月的關鍵結果。

And then secondly, on the Downstream side and the customer product side, obviously quite an impressive performance there. One of the things I was reflecting on from the strategy presentation was that when looking at that EBITDA number and how you see it doubling, it doesn't seem that the starting point stayed where it is. And that's despite some fairly aggressive assumptions around volumes coming down and oil demand coming down. So can you just talk about how comfortable you are that, that starting point can stay where it is and that provides the base to build on?

其次，在下游方面和客戶產品方面，顯然表現相當令人印象深刻。我在策略演示中反思的一件事是，當看到 EBITDA 數字以及你如何看待它翻倍時，起點似乎並沒有停留在原來的位置。儘管有一些關於產量下降和石油需求下降的相當激進的假設。那麼你能談談你對此感到有多舒服嗎？起點可以保持在原來的位置，並為繼續發展提供基礎嗎？

Thanks for joining us. On the first question, maybe I'll take that one. And Murray, if you could take the question around the customers and products part of the business. Lydia, I think it's just worth the emphasis on delivery, it's probably just worth doing a quick recap of what we've been up to this year and how things have been moving along. We're sort of doing exactly what I think we laid out in February of this year. And we started off by saying that BP was, I felt, out of step with parts of society, out of step with parts of our employees and out of step with many shareholders, shareholders begging us to give a reason why they could advise their clients to invest in the company. And I think it's very hard to be a long-term successful company when you're out of step. And we said that back then.

感謝您加入我們。關於第一個問題，也許我會回答這個問題。 Murray，請您圍繞業務中的客戶和產品部分提出問題。莉迪亞，我認為強調交付是值得的，可能值得快速回顧我們今年所做的事情以及事情的進展。我認為我們正在做的事情正是我們在今年二月制定的計劃。我們一開始就說，我覺得英國石油公司與社會的某些部分不合拍，與我們的部分員工不合拍，與許多股東也不合拍，股東懇求我們給出一個理由，說明為什麼他們可以為客戶提供建議。投資該公司。我認為，當你步調不一致時，就很難成為長期成功的公司。我們當時就這麼說過。

And we spent 8 months working on that part of the story, involved a lot of outreach, engagement, messaging, dialogue, media, listening, talking to the UNFCCC, to Greenpeace, to Christiana Figueres, Nigel Topping, whoever, all sorts of different people. And I think we've made some great progress actually, and it feels much better that -- and we're able to get so much more out of being part of the solution and being inside the tent. Tony Hayward used to tell me it's really important to be inside that tent. And of course, that's led to deals with Microsoft, who have their own net zero ambition; Uber, who've got their net zero ambition; Aberdeen and Houston, around net zero. So being part of the solution has, I think, taken some work over the last 8 months and brought some real dividend.

我們花了8 個月的時間來完成故事的這一部分，涉及大量的外展、參與、訊息傳遞、對話、媒體、傾聽、與《聯合國氣候變遷框架公約》、綠色和平組織、克里斯蒂娜·菲格雷斯、奈傑爾·托平等各種不同的人交談。人們。我認為我們實際上已經取得了一些巨大的進步，感覺好多了——而且我們能夠從成為解決方案的一部分和在帳篷裡得到更多的東西。東尼海沃德曾經告訴我，待在帳篷裡真的很重要。當然，這導致了與微軟的交易，微軟也有自己的淨零雄心。 Uber，有著淨零排放的野心；阿伯丁和休士頓的淨淨值為零。因此，我認為，在過去 8 個月裡，作為解決方案的一部分，我們付出了一些努力，並帶來了一些真正的紅利。

Secondly, of course, we've had to develop a new strategy. That's involved a lot of hard work. And thirdly, we've been reinventing the company, 2,800 people gone, 10,000, the majority of which to go by the end of the year. And you heard me talk about the delayering, 50% of the organization now within 5 layers of my role versus 20% before. But with much of that work out of the way, you'll hear me speak increasingly about something else we said in February, which is we need to perform while transform. And we haven't been talking as much about that because we've been talking about these other things. But the reality is the entire organization has been focused on that performance. And we've been doing it quietly. And I hope you've seen that in the delivery of the business this month.

其次，當然，我們必須制定新的策略。這涉及很多艱苦的工作。第三，我們一直在重塑公司，2,800 人離職，10,000 人，其中大部分將在年底離職。你聽到我談論了分層，現在組織中有 50% 的人在我的角色的 5 層之內，而以前只有 20%。但隨著大部分工作的完成，你會聽到我越來越多地談論我們在二月說過的其他事情，那就是我們需要在轉型時執行。我們並沒有過多談論這一點，因為我們一直在談論其他事情。但現實是整個組織都專注於這種績效。而我們一直在悄悄地做這件事。我希望您已經在本月的業務交付中看到了這一點。

So going forward, to your question, what is important? What is important for us going forward is 2 main things. Number one, we must deliver operationally. And number two, we must deliver strategically. That is what we are about. Operational delivery is about 3 more projects to come online by the end of the year. Operational delivery is about taking more cost out of the system, down 11% year-to-date. But we've got $2.5 billion by the end of next year and importantly $3 billion to $4 billion out by 2023. That's what operational delivery is. It's about running those plants reliably. It's about running the refineries well. It's about the basics of running a good business. Strategic delivery is about making sure that we progress on our milestones. A small example is the signing of the charging point deal with Police Scotland. A large example -- a larger example is the Equinor deal in offshore wind.

那麼接下來，對於你的問題，什麼是重要的呢？對我們前進來說重要的是兩件事。第一，我們必須切實可行地交付。第二，我們必須策略性地交付。這就是我們的目的。營運交付預計還有 3 個項目將於今年底上線。營運交付旨在降低系統成本，今年迄今已下降 11%。但到明年年底，我們將獲得 25 億美元的資金，更重要的是，到 2023 年，我們將獲得 30 億至 40 億美元的資金。這就是營運交付。這是關於可靠地運行這些工廠。這是關於煉油廠的良好運作。這是關於經營良好企業的基礎知識。戰略交付是為了確保我們在里程碑上取得進展。一個小例子是與蘇格蘭警察局簽署充電站協議。一個很大的例子——一個更大的例子是 Equinor 的離岸風電交易。

But we have to make sure that we're doing organic and some smaller inorganic moves that demonstrate that there is value, that the value proposition that we laid out right across the growth piece, not just in low carbon but also in consumer and mobility, that, that's there. And we have to prove that to the market. And that's what we're very focused on. So the next 6 months and, indeed, the next 6 years are about operational delivery, number one, and importantly, safety being absolutely core in that, making sure we don't have an accident. And number two, it's about strategic delivery. I hope that helps. Murray, on the Downstream -- or on customer and products, I should remind myself.

但我們必須確保我們正在採取有機和一些較小的無機舉措，以證明存在價值，我們在整個增長領域提出的價值主張，不僅在低碳方面，而且在消費者和流動性方面，那個，那個在那裡。我們必須向市場證明這一點。這就是我們非常關注的。因此，接下來的 6 個月，實際上是接下來的 6 年，首要的是營運交付，重要的是，安全是其中的絕對核心，確保我們不會發生事故。第二，是關於戰略交付。我希望這有幫助。穆雷，在下游——或者在客戶和產品上，我應該提醒自己。

Yes. Thanks, Bernard. If you think about what we said in August 4 and in September, the starting point for all of our targets on EBITDA was the last 2 quarters of 2019 and the first 2 quarters of 2020. That was the starting point to try to give a blend of pre and post COVID. Are we back to that already? Well, we might be doing better actually. When you take a look at our results in detail this quarter, 2 things I'd highlight. First of all, Castrol. Castrol's profits for the quarter, as we've disclosed, are back to pre-COVID levels. And that's coming out of the strength of China, where some outside people are saying China is back to 4.9% growth in GDP. We're seeing that come through the results. So Castrol is back to historic performance. So I think that's very good.

是的。謝謝，伯納德。如果你想想我們在 8 月 4 日和 9 月所說的話，我們所有 EBITDA 目標的起點都是 2019 年最後 2 個季度和 2020 年前 2 個季度。這是嘗試提供混合的起點新冠肺炎前後的情況。我們已經回到那個狀態了嗎？好吧，實際上我們可能做得更好。當您詳細查看我們本季的業績時，我要強調兩件事。首先是嘉實多。正如我們所揭露的，嘉實多本季的利潤已恢復至新冠疫情爆發前的水平。這源自於中國的實力，一些外在人士稱中國GDP成長率已回到4.9%。我們從結果中看到了這一點。因此嘉實多又恢復了歷史性的表現。所以我認為這非常好。

And probably the one that's even surprising us with its strength is on the fuels side, both convenience and fuels. We had the best quarter in 7 quarters in 3Q despite the fact that volumes are down by 15% globally. And that's out of the strength of our convenience business, same-store sales up 3% to 4%, just magnificent performance from the teams. So I think, Lydia, that baseline we used, you can think of pretty confidently now. And we look forward to an awful lot of growth in the future.

也許最讓我們驚訝的就是燃料方面，無論是便利性還是燃料。儘管全球銷量下降了 15%，但第三季我們的季度表現是 7 個季度以來最好的。這得益於我們便利業務的實力，同店銷售額成長了3%到4%，團隊的表現非常出色。所以我認為，莉迪亞，我們使用的基線，你現在可以非常自信地想到。我們期待未來的巨大成長。

And I think if I could just add, I mean, I think, hopefully, it reinforces the emphasis that we've placed on customers and products in the presentation in our strategy, a key plank of the strategy. And I think there can be no greater proof point that in the third quarter of 2020, when the world is still suffering from an incredible pandemic, that we had our best quarter in 7 quarters in that part of the business. So I think it's -- people want proof points and evidence, I think that's probably as good a proof point as we can get. So hopefully, that helps, Lydia.

我想如果我可以補充一點，我的意思是，我認為，希望它能加強我們在策略演示中對客戶和產品的重視，這是策略的關鍵部分。我認為沒有比這更好的證據表明，在 2020 年第三季度，當世界仍在遭受令人難以置信的大流行之苦時，我們在該業務領域取得了 7 個季度以來最好的季度。所以我認為人們想要證據和證據，我認為這可能是我們能得到的最好的證據。希望這會有所幫助，莉迪亞。

Okay. Thank you, Lydia. We'll take the next question from Christyan Malek at JPMorgan. Christyan.

好的。謝謝你，莉迪亞。我們將回答摩根大通的 Christyan Malek 提出的下一個問題。克里斯蒂安.

And what off to a very resilient quarter in what is a horrific macro backdrop. Two questions. And I know we sort of addressed this at different points in the CMD. But first, on buybacks, with net debt now sort of around $40 billion and you expect a further fall in Q4 as disposal proceeds, et cetera, and hopefully the operational environment improves, how committed are you to returning the surplus cash to shareholders once you get the sub-$35 billion net debt target is reached? And I say that within the context of potentially other competing demands or just high CapEx or investments in low carbon.

在可怕的宏觀背景下，這個季度的表現非常有彈性。兩個問題。我知道我們在 CMD 的不同點上解決了這個問題。但首先，在回購方面，目前淨債務約為 400 億美元，您預計第四季度將進一步下降，因為處置收益等，並希望營運環境有所改善，一旦您淨債務目標是否達到350億美元以下？我是在潛在的其他競爭需求或只是高資本支出或低碳投資的背景下說的。

And the second question is around the low-carbon business build-out. And sort of -- I know we've again addressed this. But this organic versus M&A approach, you've talked about the strategic partnership with Equinor as a point of progress during the quarter. And looking forward, how dependent are you on M&A in creating the pipeline to support the 50-gigawatt target? And are there specific submarkets within low carbon that may benefit most from M&A in terms of achieving critical mass more rapidly? Because I think that last point on speed and scale, it feels to me, is the area that potentially we get pushback on in materiality within the context of the overall portfolio.

第二個問題是關於低碳業務的發展。我知道我們已經再次解決了這個問題。但是，這種有機與併購的方法，你已經談到與 Equinor 的策略合作夥伴關係是本季的進展點。展望未來，您在創建支持 50 吉瓦目標的管道方面對併購的依賴程度如何？低碳領域是否有特定的子市場可以從併購中受益最多，從而更快達到臨界質量？因為我認為，在我看來，關於速度和規模的最後一點是我們在整體投資組合的背景下可能在實質方面受到阻礙的領域。

Very good, Christyan. Thank you. I will try and tackle the low carbon question with some help from Murray, just to lead on the buybacks, then Murray will give some detail. I mean I think the answer to your question around commitment is we are absolutely committed. And I think we put a lot of work, as you would expect of us, into our financial framework. And we have very deliberately ordered the priorities in those -- in that financial framework and those uses of funds in the way that we have, 1 through to 5, starting with the dividend and, of course, ending with when there is surplus cash and we have Phase 1 and Phase 2, when there is surplus cash, a commitment to buybacks. So I would just encourage people to go back to that financial framework. The ordering is important. It's there for a reason and we intend to follow it. Murray, anything you'd like to say beyond that?

很好，克里斯蒂安。謝謝。我將嘗試在穆雷的幫助下解決低碳問題，只是為了領導回購，然後穆雷將提供一些細節。我的意思是，我認為你關於承諾的問題的答案是我們絕對承諾。我認為，正如您所期望的那樣，我們在我們的財務框架中投入了大量的工作。我們非常謹慎地安排了這些方面的優先事項——在財務框架中以及以我們現有的方式使用資金的方式，1到5，從股息開始，當然，以有盈餘現金和我們有第一階段和第二階段，當有多餘現金時，我們承諾回購。所以我只是鼓勵人們回到那個財務框架。順序很重要。它的存在是有原因的，我們打算遵循它。莫瑞，除此之外你還有什麼想說的嗎？

No. Inside the company, guys, we literally follow 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. So whatever the surplus cash is, it first gets dedicated towards paying our resilient dividend; next, we use it to reduce net debt, a very strong step in the quarter despite brutal conditions; third, transition CapEx as we've talked about; fourth, spend in resilient hydrocarbons; and then as Bernard said, at least 60% of any surplus will be dedicated toward share buybacks once we've hit that $35 billion. And that's a firm commitment. So yes, supportive.

不。在公司內部，夥計們，我們確實遵循 1、2、3、4、5。因此，無論剩餘現金是多少，它首先會用於支付我們的彈性股息；接下來，我們用它來減少淨債務，儘管情況嚴峻，但這是本季非常有力的一步；第三，我們已經討論過的轉型資本支出；第四，投資有彈性的碳氫化合物；然後，正如伯納德所說，一旦我們達到 350 億美元，盈餘中至少 60% 將用於股票回購。這是一個堅定的承諾。所以是的，支持。

Very good. Great, Christyan. And on your question on low carbon build-out, again just remind people, we have, in gross terms, and you can effectively divide it by 2 for net, so we have a gross pipeline of about 20 gigawatts. We have a further series of options of 21 gigawatts. We're confident in our ability to hit the 20 gigawatt net by 2025.

非常好。太棒了，克里斯蒂安。關於你關於低碳建設的問題，再次提醒人們，就總量而言，我們可以有效地將其除以 2 得到淨值，因此我們的總管道約為 20 吉瓦。我們還有 21 吉瓦的更多系列選項。我們對 2025 年達到 20 吉瓦的能力充滿信心。

In answer to your question around M&A, organic versus inorganic, what I can tell you is that the first thing I would say is that partnerships will be a factor, a key factor, in this build-out, quite frankly, just like it is in the traditional oil and gas business. We partner all around the world today in oil and gas. And partnership will be no different as we look to build out our low carbon position.

在回答您關於併購（有機與無機）的問題時，我可以告訴您的是，我要說的第一件事是，坦率地說，合作夥伴關係將是這一建設中的一個因素，一個關鍵因素，就像它一樣在傳統的石油和天然氣業務中。如今，我們在石油和天然氣領域與世界各地都有合作夥伴。當我們尋求建立我們的低碳地位時，合作關係也不會有什麼不同。

The second thing that I would say is that it will be a mix of organic and inorganic. Organic might look like bidding on a license round. If there's an offshore wind license round, which you will see over the coming 6 months probably, you'll see us bid. We'll do that in partnerships, we'd consider that as sort of an organic build-out. And we'll always look at inorganics as well. But I can tell you right now that there is nothing on a material level that is front and focus on our mind today.

我要說的第二件事是，它將是有機和無機的混合物。有機可能看起來像一輪許可競標。如果有離岸風電許可證輪（您可能會在未來 6 個月內看到），您會看到我們投標。我們將透過合作夥伴關係來做到這一點，我們認為這是一種有機的擴展。我們也將始終關注無機物。但我現在可以告訴你，在物質層面上，沒有任何東西是我們今天頭腦中最前沿和最關注的。

And thirdly, and I think most importantly in all of this, is that whatever we do will be focused on that key value metric of that 8% to 10%. And quite frankly, if we can't do it, we won't -- if we can't get it, we won't do it. But clearly, we've done some homework and are confident in our ability to deliver that 8% to 10%. We wouldn't have said it otherwise. But investors should be very clear that if it's not achievable, it's a deal that won't get done.

第三，我認為在這一切中最重要的是，無論我們做什麼，都將專注於 8% 到 10% 的關鍵價值指標。坦白說，如果我們做不到，我們就不會做——如果我們做不到，我們就不會做。但顯然，我們已經做了一些功課，並且對實現 8% 到 10% 的目標充滿信心。否則我們就不會這麼說。但投資人應該非常清楚，如果無法實現，那麼這筆交易就無法完成。

And I think some of you will have heard Nick Boyle from Lightsource BP recently last week, I think, or this week, speak about the fact that we've already achieved 8% to 10% and more on 17, I think he might have even said 18 or 20 projects in Lightsource BP. And I think, over time, our intention is to give you more visibility and transparency into that so that you can start to have the confidence that we have that these returns are not dream-like, that they're actually returns that we achieve. So our job is to provide more transparency on that. And we will as we head into next year. But it will be a mix in answer to your question. Murray, anything to add?

我想你們中的一些人會在上週或本週聽到 Lightsource BP 的 Nick Boyle 談到我們已經在 17 號上實現了 8% 到 10% 甚至更多的事實，我認為他可能已經甚至說Lightsource BP中有18或20個項目。我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們的目的是為您提供更多的可見度和透明度，以便您開始相信我們的這些回報不是夢想，它們實際上是我們實現的回報。所以我們的工作是提供更多的透明度。當我們進入明年時，我們將會這樣做。但這將是對你問題的答案的混合。穆雷，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just the mix of organic and inorganic is included inside our capital frame as well, Christyan. We talked about a capital frame of $13 billion to $15 billion until we hit net debt of $35 billion. And then we talked about expanding to $14 billion to $16 billion, including both organics and inorganics. So I just wanted to be clear on that.

Christyan，我們的資本架構中也包含了有機和無機的混合。我們討論了 130 億至 150 億美元的資本框架，直到淨債務達到 350 億美元。然後我們討論了擴大到 140 億至 160 億美元，包括有機和無機。所以我只是想澄清這一點。

We'll take the next question from Jon Rigby at UBS. Jon.

我們將回答瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Jon Rigby 提出的下一個問題。喬恩.

Two questions. The first is, I think, for Murray. Can you just walk me through and unpick the tax commentary a little bit? I do have an accounting background, but I found it very difficult to work it out. So I'm particularly interested in the higher tax rate, given the higher contribution from the Downstream. And if you can then maybe talk about how we should be relating tax charge to cash tax as well. I think there's some commentary around deferred tax changes or going back and looking at some of the deferred taxes, if you could help me with that.

兩個問題。我認為第一個是穆雷。您能幫我介紹一下並稍微取消一下稅務評論嗎？我確實有會計背景，但我發現很難解決這個問題。因此，鑑於下游的貢獻較高，我對較高的稅率特別感興趣。如果可以的話，也許可以談談我們應該如何將稅費與現金稅連結起來。我認為有一些關於遞延稅變化的評論，或者回顧一些遞延稅，如果你能幫助我的話。

The second is just to revisit the restructuring. I'm struck by a relatively low charge to date. I think it's about $200 million for restructuring. And I think you talked about quite a big number of people leaving payroll by end of year. So should we expect an additional restructuring charge and cash-out in 4Q, when we think about P&L and cash flow?

第二個就是重新審視重組。到目前為止，收費相對較低，這讓我感到震驚。我認為重組費用約為2億美元。我認為您談到了相當多的人在年底前離職。那麼，當我們考慮損益表和現金流時，我們是否應該預期第四季度會有額外的重組費用和現金支出？

Very good, Jon. Thank you. Murray is very glad that he started out his career in tax. So I hope that he's going to be able to explain that one relatively easily to you. I didn't, by the way. On the restructuring, I think the charge in the third quarter was $450 million. And we guided to a charge in total of $1.4 billion for the entire restructuring. I think you'll find that a bit more in line with the numbers that we've given around people in the organization. Not all the 10,000 will leave by the end of the year, we said the majority will leave by the end of the year. And that's what we're working on right now.

非常好，喬恩。謝謝。默里很高興他的職業生涯始於稅務。所以我希望他能夠相對容易地向你解釋這一點。順便說一句，我沒有。關於重組，我認為第三季的費用為 4.5 億美元。我們預計整個重組費用總計為 14 億美元。我想您會發現這與我們給出的組織內人員的數字更加一致。並不是所有的10,000人都會在年底前離開，我們說大多數人會在年底前離開。這就是我們現在正在努力的事情。

So that's all I would say. And I think the process is going well. It's obviously a difficult time for our people as they find out in the next several weeks whether they have a job or not. But our intention, and this is very important now as we head into next year, our intention is to turn a real leaf in the book, so to speak, over the Christmas here and move out of a period of restructuring and into a period where people know they have a job, we know what our priorities are and we continue to execute as we have. So they are the numbers that I have that, I hope, give a little bit, make a bit more sense. Murray, on tax.

這就是我要說的。我認為這個過程進展順利。對於我們的員工來說，這顯然是一個困難時期，因為他們將在接下來的幾週內得知自己是否有工作。但我們的意圖，在我們進入明年的時候，這一點非常重要，我們的意圖是在聖誕節期間翻開真正的一頁，走出重組時期，進入一個人們知道他們有一份工作，我們知道我們的優先事項是什麼，並且我們將繼續以現有方式執行。所以，我希望這些數據能提供一點、更有意義。穆雷，關於稅收。

Yes. If I could just add on the restructuring, so $500 million accrued to date, Jon. The majority of the cash flow will be in 4Q and 1Q. And you'll see a larger accrual towards the $1.4 billion in 4Q once we're clear on the plans.

是的。如果我能加上重組的話，那麼迄今為止已經累計了 5 億美元，喬恩。大部分現金流將出現在第四季和第一季。一旦我們明確了計劃，您將看到第四季度的應計收入將增加至 14 億美元。

On tax. Thanks, Jon, for the question. That puts a smile on my face. I'm going to try to dumb this one down, if you don't mind. It's how I try to think about tax. We have a baseload of tax that you have to accrue and pay in some nations around the world in the historic Upstream that no matter what the price is, you get a charge. And that's what you see happening in places like Abu Dhabi and Egypt, et cetera. So you've got this fixed amount of tax that's paid through the system no matter what.

關於稅收。謝謝喬恩提出這個問題。這讓我臉上露出笑容。如果你不介意的話，我會試著把這個問題簡單化。這就是我嘗試思考稅收的方式。我們有一個基本稅款，您必須在歷史悠久的上游世界上的一些國家中累積和支付，無論價格是多少，您都會收取費用。這就是你在阿布達比和埃及等地看到的情況。因此，無論如何，您都會透過系統支付固定金額的稅金。

While that's happening, the rest of the profitability of the business can move up and down quite substantially, as you see, as we've gone through the second quarter and the third quarter. So trying to provide guidance when you've got a relatively fixed amount coming in some nations and then you have the rest of the business gyrating around with very different tax rates around the world, it's almost impossible to predict what the effective tax rate will be.

當這種情況發生時，正如您所看到的，正如我們經歷的第二季度和第三季度一樣，業務的其餘盈利能力可能會大幅上下波動。因此，當你在某些國家獲得相對固定的金額，然後你的其餘業務在世界各地的稅率差異很大時，試圖提供指導，幾乎不可能預測有效稅率是多少。

So I think as we're in this low-price world right now, I'd expect a relatively fixed amount of payment in these nations. And as the macro environment is difficult, that can start to lead to higher effective tax rates, which is really what you're seeing in the quarter. I wouldn't want to try to get into much more detail than that because then I start needing to talk about differences between segments and differences between different countries. So I hope that helps, Jon, on effective rate.

因此，我認為，由於我們現在處於這個低價世界，我預計這些國家的付款金額將相對固定。由於宏觀環境困難，這可能會開始導致有效稅率上升，這正是您在本季看到的情況。我不想嘗試比這更詳細的內容，因為這樣我就開始需要談論細分市場之間的差異以及不同國家之間的差異。喬恩，我希望這對有效率有所幫助。

Cash tax rate, over the long term, you know cash tax rate equals effective tax rate. As you would expect, as we build up losses, the cash tax rate on an underlying basis will be lower because you have losses coming through. And the only exception to that one is where you have big transactions, where you divest and you get a tax bill on divestment for cash tax. So I hope being a former accountant, that helps you a little bit. And of course, we're moving to post-tax reporting next year. So hopefully, we all get a few less gray hairs trying to understand it then.

現金稅率，從長遠來看，你知道現金稅率等於有效稅率。正如您所期望的那樣，當我們增加損失時，基本的現金稅率將會降低，因為您將承受損失。唯一的例外是，當你進行大額交易時，當你進行撤資時，你會收到一份撤資現金稅的稅單。所以我希望作為一名前會計師，這對你有一點幫助。當然，我們明年將轉向稅後申報。所以希望我們在嘗試理解它時能少一些白髮。

Thanks, Murray. Thanks, Jon. Unfortunately, when he said dumbing it down, he looked immediately at me, but we'll move on from that. Craig?

謝謝，穆雷。謝謝，喬恩。不幸的是，當他說簡化一下時，他立即看著我，但我們會繼續前進。克雷格？

Thanks, Jon. We'll take the next question from Roger Read at Wells Fargo. Bright and early, Roger, over to you.

謝謝，喬恩。我們將回答富國銀行的羅傑·里德提出的下一個問題。很早，羅傑，交給你了。

Yes. Not very bright over here but definitely very early. I just would like to come back on the balance sheet and the net debt question, understand $35 billion net debt and then you would look to buy back shares. I'm guessing, as you think about it, you've got to have a couple of things: one, sort of a longer-term total debt number you'd like to get down to so that you're not always balancing around the $35 billion; but secondarily, how much sort of extra cash do you have?

是的。這裡不是很亮，但肯定很早。我只想回到資產負債表和淨債務問題，了解 350 億美元的淨債務，然後你會考慮回購股票。我猜，當你想到這一點時，你必須有幾件事：一是你想要了解的長期總債務數字，這樣你就不會總是在周圍保持平衡350億美元；但其次，你有多少額外的現金？

Do we think about it as $35 billion net debt after you've dedicated some capital towards share repurchases? Or maybe help us a little bit with the trigger because we're going to be getting close here over the next couple of quarters. And I think that would really be the kind of point that would help us with clients understanding some of the commitment here to return capital to shareholders.

在您投入一些資金用於股票回購後，我們是否將其視為 350 億美元的淨債務？或者也許可以在觸發方面幫助我們一點，因為我們將在接下來的幾個季度內接近這一點。我認為這確實有助於我們與客戶理解向股東返還資本的一些承諾。

And then my second question was just going to be on the global gas outlook. We've seen some real improvement in the spot market. But there's a lot of capacity offline. Just kind of how you're thinking about that into the winter time.

然後我的第二個問題是關於全球天然氣前景。我們看到現貨市場出現了一些真正的改善。但離線的容量很大。這就像你在冬天時的思考方式。

Good, Roger. Thank you. Murray will help me with specifics on the balance sheet. I mean I think just reminding ourselves of the framework and the framework has a sort of a two-step process in it. The first is that we get to that $35 billion. That is step number one. And we are very clear that once we are in a positive cash situation, positive free cash, having achieved a net debt position of $35 billion, we then move into that buyback commitment. Beyond that, of course, it isn't about $35 billion. Specifically, it's about maintaining an investment credit grade. And that becomes our medium- to longer-term objective. Murray, anything you wish to comment on in terms of timing to help Roger?

很好，羅傑。謝謝。穆雷將幫助我了解資產負債表的細節。我的意思是，我認為只是提醒我們自己這個框架，而這個框架有一個兩步驟過程。首先是我們達到了 350 億美元。這是第一步。我們非常清楚，一旦我們處於積極的現金狀況、積極的自由現金、實現了 350 億美元的淨債務狀況，我們就會做出回購承諾。當然，除此之外，還不到 350 億美元。具體來說，它是關於維持投資信用等級。這成為我們的中長期目標。穆雷，在幫助羅傑的時間方面您有什麼想要評論的嗎？

Yes. On timing, I mean, right now, I would say the business is performing really well. Costs are coming down. CapEx efficiency is good. New projects are coming online. And as Lydia said or Lydia asked about earlier, we have some material new projects that are fixed price that are coming online soon with Ghazeer ramping up and then Raven in Egypt coming online. So those are very material projects that will increase the cash flow into the business.

是的。在時機上，我的意思是，現在，我想說該業務的表現非常好。成本正在下降。資本支出效率良好。新項目即將上線。正如 Lydia 所說或 Lydia 之前詢問的那樣，我們有一些固定價格的重要新項目很快就會上線，Ghazeer 正在加速上線，然後埃及的 Raven 也將上線。因此，這些都是非常重要的項目，將增加企業的現金流。

So operationally, I feel we're going in a very good direction to drive towards that $35 billion of net debt. Of course, then we have the divestments, the petchem divestment. We remain confident that we'll complete that by year-end. And there will be more divestments we might announce over time. We'll see, if we get some value, then we'll pursue those.

因此，在營運方面，我認為我們正朝著一個非常好的方向前進，以實現 350 億美元的淨債務。當然，我們還有撤資，石油化工撤資。我們仍然有信心在年底前完成這項工作。隨著時間的推移，我們可能會宣布更多的撤資。我們會看到，如果我們獲得了一些價值，那麼我們就會追求這些。

What the glide path is to net debt then depends on the environment, and the environment is super hard to call. I'm sure all of you feel that way yourselves. I would expect we'll move into buyback territory somewhere around 4Q 2021, 1Q 2022, somewhere in there, based on a $45 to $50 environment. It's kind of hard to call what that environment is. But remember, RMM, gas all play into it. So I think that's what I'd add to that one. As far as -- do you want to answer the gas question, Bernard?

淨債務的下滑路徑取決於環境，而環境是非常難以預測的。我相信你們所有人都有這樣的感覺。我預計我們將在 2021 年第四季、2022 年第一季左右進入回購區域，基於 45 美元至 50 美元的環境。很難形容那個環境是什麼。但請記住，RMM，氣體都會發揮作用。所以我想這就是我要添加的內容。至於──伯納德，你想回答汽油問題嗎？

Yes. No, I think -- added together, I mean, I think we've always thought that the U.S. is a sort of an anchor point for global gas prices. Gas supply in the United States is down materially. I think Roger will know that better than any of us. It used to be around 95 Bcf, it's down at 86 Bcf. It's leveling off probably a little bit right now. But you are beginning to see exports on the rise, LNG and pipeline. Gas rigs are very low. I think 87 rigs, the last count I saw. So you are seeing one of the bright spots in the environment. And one that we are pretty well positioned, Murray, to take advantage of is gas prices heading to over $3 next year. And that's causing prices to rise in Europe and in Asia, and I think up to $5 or $6 and $7 and $8 from memory.

是的。不，我認為 - 我的意思是，我認為我們一直認為美國是全球天然氣價格的一個錨點。美國的天然氣供應大幅下降。我想羅傑比我們任何人都更了解這一點。以前約 95 Bcf，現在降至 86 Bcf。現在可能已經趨於平穩了一點。但你開始看到液化天然氣和管道出口的成長。天然氣鑽機非常低。我認為是 87 台鑽孔機，這是我看到的最後一次計數。所以您正在看到環境中的亮點之一。 Murray，我們非常有能力利用的一個優勢是明年汽油價格將超過 3 美元。這導致歐洲和亞洲的價格上漲，據我記憶，價格上漲至 5 美元、6 美元、7 美元和 8 美元。

And we've got a fantastic position in the Haynesville in the United States, probably one of the -- I think, the premium gas resources in the United States, proximity to market, high-pressure wells. And you'll see us increasing activity there, taking advantage of the situation. The Southern Gas Corridor is 100% mechanically complete, an extraordinary project that the company with its partners has completed over the last several years. And that should begin production before the end of the year with gas from the Caspian into Europe. And nice to see that entering a bit of a strengthening market. And obviously, we've got a strong position in Trinidad and with our business in Tangguh in Asia. So gas is a bright spot in the environment right now. And I think it's one that we're pretty well positioned to take advantage of. Murray, anything to add?

我們在美國海恩斯維爾擁有絕佳的地理位置，我認為這可能是美國優質天然氣資源之一，靠近市場和高壓井。你會看到我們利用這種情況增加那裡的活動。南部天然氣走廊的機械設備已 100% 完成，這是該公司及其合作夥伴在過去幾年中完成的非凡項目。預計在今年底前開始生產，將天然氣從里海輸送到歐洲。很高興看到市場進入了一個走強的階段。顯然，我們在特立尼達和亞洲東固的業務都擁有強大的地位。因此，天然氣目前是環境中的一個亮點。我認為我們完全有能力利用這項優勢。穆雷，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Perfect. Nothing to add.

完美的。沒什麼好補充的。

Thanks, Roger. We'll take the next question from Irene Himona at Societe General.

謝謝，羅傑。我們將回答法國興業銀行 Irene Himona 的下一個問題。

I had a couple of questions. First of all, if you can talk, Murray, about two Q2 numbers. One is the OB&C, $130 million charge was materially below your guidance for $350 million. And the other one is the deepening losses in Q3 at Rosneft. And my second question, working capital, can you talk about what you anticipate will happen in Q4, please, following the release in Q3?

我有幾個問題。首先，穆雷，請談談第二季的兩個數據。其中之一是 OB&C，1.3 億美元的費用大大低於您指導的 3.5 億美元。另一個是俄羅斯石油公司第三季的虧損加深。我的第二個問題，營運資金，您能談談在第三季發布之後您預計第四季度會發生什麼嗎？

Irene, thanks very much. Of course, I'll have Murray address both working capital. Of course, we saw a big build in a way in the beginning of the year and we're seeing a bit of that unwind now. So Murray, OB&C, Rosneft and working capital? Thanks.

艾琳，非常感謝。當然，我會讓穆雷解決兩個營運資金問題。當然，我們在今年年初看到了某種程度的大規模建設，現在我們看到了一些放鬆。那麼穆雷、OB&C、俄羅斯石油公司和營運資金呢？謝謝。

Thanks, boss. So let's start with OB&C. We had some gains on some of the ventures entities that we hold inside OB&C that offset the normal $350 million a quarter run rate. So those are some gains inside that portfolio that gets effectively marked to market each quarter. I'll let you guess which one that was.

謝謝老闆。那麼讓我們從 OB&C 開始。我們在 OB&C 內部持有的一些風險實體獲得了一些收益，抵消了正常的每季 3.5 億美元的運作率。因此，這些是該投資組合中的一些收益，每個季度都會有效地標記為市場。我會讓你猜猜那是哪一個。

On Rosneft, the results are highly influenced by foreign exchange losses on debt. Rosneft will report more about that on their quarterly reports. I'm not sure, Craig, when those are coming out. But you should -- you'll hear more from Rosneft when that occurs. I think the underlying business is running as expected and they just had some FX losses on debt that -- we'll see what happens in the future on that.

俄羅斯石油公司的業績很大程度上受到債務外匯損失的影響。俄羅斯石油公司將在其季度報告中報告更多相關內容。克雷格，我不確定這些內容什麼時候會發布。但你應該——當這種情況發生時，你會聽到更多來自俄羅斯石油公司的消息。我認為基礎業務正在按預期運行，他們只是因債務而遭受了一些外匯損失——我們將看看未來會發生什麼。

And then on working capital, we did have the big build in 1Q. We've had a release in 2Q. We've had a release in 3Q. What happens in 4Q? There might be a slight release. An awful lot of the working capital that remains tied up sits in refineries. And the refineries are not running at full capacity. You guys know about all the products that store around the world.

然後在營運資金方面，我們確實在第一季取得了巨大的進展。我們在第二季發布了版本。我們在第三季發布了版本。第四季會發生什麼事？可能會有輕微的釋放。大量仍被佔用的營運資金位於煉油廠。而且煉油廠並未滿載運轉。你們知道世界各地儲存的所有產品。

So I would expect -- I would expect a gradual unwind of that as opposed to a fast unwind of that unless we see a big demand response post COVID in different geographies. So I think it will be a slow release from here. We, of course, have German MOT to think about in 4Q as well. That will be on your mind. And we, of course, have payments for severance coming out of the reorganizations that you'll have to keep in your mind as well as you look at it. I hope that helped, Irene.

因此，我預計這種情況會逐步緩解，而不是快速緩解，除非我們看到不同地區在新冠疫情後出現了巨大的需求反應。所以我認為這將是一個緩慢的發布。當然，我們在第四季也需要考慮德國 MOT。這將在你的腦海中。當然，我們有來自重組的遣散費，您必須牢記並查看它。我希望這有幫助，艾琳。

Thanks, Irene.

謝謝，艾琳。

We'll take the next question from Lucas Herrmann at Exane. Lucas.

我們將回答 Exane 的 Lucas Herrmann 提出的下一個問題。盧卡斯.

I just wanted to move to the U.S. for a moment and a couple of questions. One, related to the election and just whether you had any observations you'd care to make around drilling federal land, potential impact, given change in President? And the second, clearly a lot of consolidation activity at the present time. And to the extent that some of your peers, I guess, gain competitive strength or certainly buying power through this position, to what extent -- well, I guess two questions come from it actually.

我只是想搬到美國待一會兒，想問幾個問題。第一，與選舉有關，以及考慮到總統的變化，您是否願意就聯邦土地鑽探、潛在影響發表任何觀察？第二，目前顯然有許多整合活動。我想，在某種程度上，你的一些同行透過這個職位獲得了競爭優勢或購買力，達到什麼程度——嗯，我想實際上有兩個問題。

Firstly, how do you think about your own position in the context of opportunity to add acreage, opportunity to move? And secondly, to the extent that your relative position, I guess, is undermined as others become larger, how do you think? How do you offset? How do you react? That was it, gents.

首先，在增加面積和搬遷機會的背景下，您如何看待自己的定位？其次，我想，隨著其他公司變得更大，你的相對地位會被削弱，你怎麼看？你如何抵消？你有何反應？就是這樣，先生們。

Thanks for the question. Murray, I'll get your comments on the consolidation question. On the U.S. election, Lucas, we've been -- we avoid politics, as you would imagine. We -- all around the world, we work with different governments over different periods of time. You look in Egypt, we've been in Egypt for 55, 56 years and we've been through all sorts of changes in that country over that period of time. And what we do is we stay out of politics and we focus on what is good for the country and good for the people of that country. And in Egypt, for example, that has been the provision of energy.

謝謝你的提問。穆雷，我會聽取您對合併問題的評論。關於美國大選，盧卡斯，我們一直在迴避政治，正如你想像的那樣。我們在世界各地，在不同時期與不同政府合作。你看看埃及，我們在埃及已經有 55、56 年了，在那段時間裡我們經歷了那個國家的各種變化。我們所做的就是遠離政治，我們專注於對國家和人民有利的事情。例如，在埃及，這就是能源的供應。

The United States is no different to that. We're not politicians. We work with whatever government is in power. It's a week away. And we'll see when we have a result. And we'll be working for the next 20, 30 years, I have no doubt, in the United States with whoever is in power. So I really wouldn't -- I don't think it's helpful to add any more than that. Murray, on -- yes, go ahead.

美國與此沒有什麼不同。我們不是政客。我們與任何執政政府合作。還有一週了。我們會看看什麼時候有結果。我毫不懷疑，在美國，無論誰掌權，我們都將在未來 20、30 年共同努力。所以我真的不會——我認為添加更多內容沒有什麼幫助。莫瑞，對——是的，繼續。

Bernard, sorry, it wasn't for you to express a view on President. It was more -- if there were the constraints on drilling on federal land, just -- I have very little idea, forgive me, at the proportion of your business that may be exposed to changes if that were -- if we were to see such. So it's really a comment there, not on -- I don't expect you to give me a political view.

伯納德，抱歉，你不適合表達對總統的看法。更重要的是——如果對聯邦土地上的鑽探存在限制的話——請原諒我，我對你的業務中可能面臨變化的比例知之甚少——如果我們看到的話這樣的。所以這實際上是一個評論，而不是——我不希望你給我一個政治觀點。

I know you don't. No, I think it's -- we're very -- we would be very little impacted by a change in that. That would not impact BP materially at all were that change to be enacted. Murray?

我知道你不知道。不，我認為我們不會受到這種變化的影響。如果這項改變得以實施，這根本不會對英國石油公司產生實質影響。穆雷？

No federal acreage inside BPX. On consolidation, yes, very active. The market is very active there, Lucas, as you can see. We're quite happy with the position we have. BPX continues to do a great job. Costs continue to come down. The reservoirs continue to look better. We had some great wells recently drilled in the Permian that were coming in 3x expectations. So that's super. I think most interestingly, there's been an awful lot of deflation in the sector, especially on the capital side as activity levels have dropped so much. And I would expect from consolidation that you'll have less activity in the future than we were thinking about when we invested in that.

BPX 內沒有聯邦土地。在整合方面，是的，非常活躍。正如你所看到的，盧卡斯，那裡的市場非常活躍。我們對目前的處境非常滿意。 BPX 繼續表現出色。成本持續下降。水庫的狀況持續好轉。我們最近在二疊紀鑽探了一些很棒的油井，其產量是預期的三倍。所以這太棒了。我認為最有趣的是，該行業出現了嚴重的通貨緊縮，尤其是在資本方面，因為活動水準大幅下降。我預計，透過整合，未來的活動將比我們投資時想像的要少。

So for our part, we have very material positions in the Haynesville and the Eagle Ford on the gas side and, of course, in the Permian and the different bit of the Eagle Ford on the oil side. And as the environment bounces back, we'll invest more into that. It's really untouched acreage in many spots. It's probably the last untouched acreage across all those basins. And so it's a tremendous opportunity for us to go into reservoirs that haven't been touched before and start to develop them. So we're really pleased with our position and we're just looking forward to exploiting it over time.

因此，就我們而言，我們在天然氣方面的海恩斯維爾和伊格爾福特擁有非常重要的地位，當然，在石油方面，我們在二疊紀和伊格爾福特的不同部分也擁有非常重要的地位。隨著環境的反彈，我們將在這方面投入更多。許多地方確實是未受破壞的土地。這可能是所有這些盆地中最後一個未受影響的地區。因此，這對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，可以進入以前從未接觸過的水庫並開始開發它們。所以我們對我們的地位非常滿意，我們只是期待著隨著時間的推移利用它。

And as you say, Murray, there's a real possibility that consolidation will drive further costs down in the sector. So we'll take advantage of that. Lucas, thank you for your question. Craig?

正如您所說，默里，整合確實有可能進一步降低該行業的成本。所以我們會利用這一點。盧卡斯，謝謝你的問題。克雷格？

Yes. Thanks, Lucas. We'll take the next question from Thomas Adolff at Crédit Suisse. Thomas.

是的。謝謝，盧卡斯。我們將回答瑞士信貸銀行的托馬斯·阿道夫提出的下一個問題。托馬斯.

Two questions for me as well, the first one on acquisitions and disposals. I mean the question should be quite straightforward. The $1.1 billion offshore deal, does that fall into the 2021 budget of around $13 billion and not for this year? And then Murray, you talked about, as it relates to disposals, you talked about a deep hopper. Can you just remind us of the unrisked upside? And when it comes to asset sales today versus, say, 3 months ago, is it easier to talk to potential buyers?

我也有兩個問題，第一個問題是關於收購和處置。我的意思是這個問題應該很簡單。這筆 11 億美元的離岸交易是否屬於 2021 年約 130 億美元的預算而不是今年的預算？然後穆雷，您談到了與處置相關的問題，您談到了深料斗。您能提醒我們無風險的好處嗎？當談到今天的資產出售時，與三個月前相比，與潛在買家交談是否更容易？

And the second question is related to Slide 16. You have a nice chart there showing your forecast for net debt for 2021 and 2022. And you assume a $50 Brent, 2020 real. I'm not sure whether 2021 hits the $35 billion level. And I'm not sure what you assume there. Do you assume incremental asset sales? Or does -- is it only on the basis of what you've already announced so far?

第二個問題與幻燈片 16 相關。那裡有一個很好的圖表，顯示了您對 2021 年和 2022 年淨債務的預測。您假設 2020 年布倫特原油價格為 50 美元。我不確定2021年是否會達到350億美元的水準。我不確定你在那裡的假設是什麼。您是否假設資產銷售增量？還是只是基於您迄今為止已經宣布的內容？

Very good. Thomas, thank you. I think there's definitely more than two there, but we're generous, so no problems at all. Murray will answer the question on the $1.1 billion, exactly where it falls. Is it easier to talk to people now than some time ago? Look, I think we all recognize that it's an uncertain market right now. And that's where we're very, very clear that we will be disposing only when we can find value and only when there's a real strategic rationale to do so. We're not in a rush. We've got 4.5, 5 years to do what we have to do on our production guidance. Our balance sheet, I hope you can see, is in a much better place. We've achieved over -- roughly half of the $25 billion divestment target.

非常好。托馬斯，謝謝你。我認為那裡肯定不止兩個，但我們很慷慨，所以完全沒有問題。穆雷將回答有關 11 億美元的問題，確切地說是它的落腳點。現在與人交談比以前更容易嗎？聽著，我想我們都意識到現在的市場充滿不確定性。這就是我們非常非常清楚的一點，只有當我們能夠找到價值並且只有在有真正的戰略理由時我們才會進行處置。我們並不著急。我們有 4.5 到 5 年的時間來完成我們必須完成的生產指導。我希望您能看到，我們的資產負債表狀況要好得多。我們已經實現了 250 億美元撤資目標的大約一半以上。

So we're very comfortable here sitting back, so to speak, and being driven by one thing and one thing only, and making sure that in the words of one commentator that we're not selling low and we're not setting at the bottom in the market. We're very conscious of that. So any deals, particularly in the Upstream that you do see us do will have a strong strategic rationale to them and will be only ones that we think can pass the [value at face test], so to speak, where we feel that we're getting real value for it.

因此，我們很舒服地坐在這裡，可以這麼說，只被一件事驅動，並且只被一件事驅動，並確保用一位評論員的話來說，我們不會低價出售，也不會設定在市場底部。我們對此非常清楚。因此，任何交易，特別是您看到我們所做的上游交易，都將具有強大的戰略依據，並且只有我們認為可以通過[表面價值測試]的交易，可以這麼說，我們認為我們'並從中獲得真正的價值。

And we continue to make progress on deals in the background. Some will come to fruition, some will not. There are different parties to what you might have been talking to 3 or 4 years ago. But they're still an active marketplace. And as I say, I go back to we'll only do so when we feel that we've got a real strategic rationale and where we'll be able to demonstrate that we've got good value for our shareholders for the asset. And we'll take each one in turn. Murray, the other two questions?

我們繼續在後台的交易上取得進展。有些會實現，有些不會。與您三、四年前可能交談過的人有不同的方。但它們仍然是一個活躍的市場。正如我所說，只有當我們認為我們有真正的策略理由並且我們能夠證明我們的資產為股東帶來了良好的價值時，我們才會這樣做。我們將依序處理每一項。穆雷，另外兩個問題？

Yes. Sure. The Equinor deal, Thomas, it just depends on when all the approvals are done. It's somewhere around year-end right now. It's hard to call if it's going to be -- if there's going to be cash flow in 2020 or 2021 just because it's right around year-end. So it's really hard to call that right now. So I'll let you make your own judgment on that one, if you want to be conservative or aggressive. But it's going out some time around year-end is my sense. As far as net debt, we've given you Slide 16. It's got '21 and '22. You can see that net debt is getting to $35 billion some time in there. The particular graph we put up has a footnote #1 that says that's the conditions we forecast at Capital Markets' time, which was around $50.

是的。當然。托馬斯，Equinor 的交易僅取決於所有批准何時完成。現在已經快到年底了。很難判斷 2020 年或 2021 年是否會出現現金流，因為現在正值年底。所以現在真的很難這麼稱呼。所以，如果你想保守還是激進，我會讓你對此做出自己的判斷。但我的感覺是它會在年底左右發布。至於淨債務，我們給了您幻燈片 16。它有「21」和「22」。你可以看到淨債務在某個時候達到了 350 億美元。我們給出的特定圖表有一個腳註#1，表示這是我們在資本市場當時預測的條件，約 50 美元。

So I think, as I stated a little bit earlier, some time around 4Q '21 to 1Q or 2Q '22, some time in there is our sense of when we'll hit the $35 billion net debt target. And it's highly dependent on the environment. We've made transparent what our environmental assumptions are in that graph that I'm sure you have a little machine that can calculate all the numbers. And you have our rules of thumb on oil, gas and RMM. And so I'd use the calculation and flex it back and forth whichever direction you want and you'll decide it.

因此，我認為，正如我之前所說，在 21 年第 4 季到 22 年第 1 季或第 2 季左右的某個時間，我們會感覺到何時會達到 350 億美元的淨債務目標。而且它高度依賴環境。我們已經在該圖中明確了我們的環境假設，我確信您有一台小機器可以計算所有數字。您有我們關於石油、天然氣和 RMM 的經驗法則。所以我會使用計算並將其來回彎曲到您想要的任何方向，然後您將決定它。

We are planning on a few more divestments next year. There's an awful lot of money out there chasing yield. And so this quarter, you saw us divest the land underneath our U.K. retail sites. Somebody bought those, who has a much lower cost of capital than us. So we love those kind of transactions. And we're busy pursuing other transactions like that, that we anticipate we'll do in 2021. And who knows on the Upstream side? Well, it could be '21, it could be '22, it could be '23. We'll just see when those things occur. Hopefully, that helps, Thomas.

我們計劃明年進行更多撤資。有大量資金在追逐收益。因此，本季度，您看到我們剝離了英國零售網站下方的土地。有人買了那些，他們的資本成本比我們低很多。所以我們喜歡這種交易。我們正在忙於進行其他類似的交易，我們預計將在 2021 年進行。誰知道上游方面？嗯，可能是“21”，可能是“22”，也可能是“23”。我們只會看看這些事情何時發生。希望這會有所幫助，托馬斯。

Thanks, Thomas.

謝謝，托馬斯。

We'll take the next question from Os Clint at Bernstein.

我們將回答伯恩斯坦的奧斯克林特提出的下一個問題。

Balance point, $42 in 3Q, and we obviously have the target of $40 over the next 5 years or so. But I -- just in the context of your discussion here, cost reduction momentum in OpEx and CapEx since 2014. I wanted to ask you, as you peer or look around the corner into 2021, how far away would you have been from the old $35 balance point for 2021? Obviously, the dividend has changed. But is there any way you could talk about that particular target?

平衡點是第三季的 42 美元，我們顯然在未來 5 年左右的時間裡目標是 40 美元。但我——就您在這裡討論的背景而言，自2014 年以來運營支出和資本支出的成本下降勢頭。我想問您，當您展望或展望2021 年時，您距離舊的水平還有多遠？ 2021 年 35 美元的平衡點？顯然，股利發生了變化。但有什麼方法可以談論這個特定的目標嗎？

And secondly, just over in Oman with Ghazeer up and running, it looks like -- I mean, I don't know, it looks like maybe there's a lot of gas in the country at this point. The LNG plant is now up and running at over 100%. So I'm just wondering, are you putting -- will some of this Ghazeer gas go into the LNG plant? Is there enough demand in the country for all of this gas? You're also an off-taker from the LNG plant. Will you -- is there some way you might be taking more of that out of the country over time? And just because Bernard mentioned it, could you say what's the richer condensate percentage mix is relative to your expectation?

其次，就在阿曼，Ghazeer 啟動並運行，看起來——我的意思是，我不知道，看起來該國目前可能有很多天然氣。液化天然氣工廠目前已啟動並運作超過 100%。所以我只是想知道，你是否會將一些 Ghazeer 天然氣進入液化天然氣工廠？該國對所有這些天然氣有足夠的需求嗎？您也是液化天然氣工廠的承購者。隨著時間的推移，您是否可以透過某種方式將更多的東西帶出國？僅僅因為伯納德提到了這一點，您能否說一下相對於您的預期，更豐富的凝析油百分比混合物是多少？

Oswald, thank you. I think on Oman, it's best just to say that we'll honor the sort of contractual commitments that we have in Oman around the gas sales agreements that we have in the country. We're doing our best to help Oman at the moment maximize its revenues and doing everything that we can to help them. And there will be all sorts of options being discussed, which will be how do you maximize that. But I think I wouldn't say any more, Oswald, if it's okay at the moment on that, other than to say that we have commitments in-country around those gas sales. They'll be honored, and we're doing what we can to help the country, deliver for the country in terms of maximizing revenues. And we'll continue to work, as you said quite rightly and well-informed across all aspects of the value chain to see what we can do to help them best.

奧斯瓦爾德，謝謝你。我認為關於阿曼，最好只是說我們將履行我們在阿曼就天然氣銷售協議所做的合約承諾。目前，我們正在盡最大努力幫助阿曼實現收入最大化，並竭盡全力幫助他們。將會討論各種各樣的選項，這將是你如何最大化它的選項。但奧斯瓦爾德，如果目前可以的話，我想我不會再多說了，除了說我們在國內對這些天然氣銷售做出了承諾。他們將受到尊重，我們正在盡我們所能幫助國家，為國家最大化收入。正如您所說，我們在價值鏈的各個方面都非常正確且消息靈通，我們將繼續努力，看看我們能做些什麼來最好地幫助他們。

So we're very proud of the project, I have to say, I think 4 months early. I think some of the other performance characteristics are absolutely fantastic on that project. Great help from our contractor, Petrofac, who I want to just acknowledge for their work on this, which was excellent. And of course, great support in the country, but turning out to be really, really good, hopefully, for the country and for ourselves. Murray, on Oswald's point around the old $35 and the new balance point and where do you think it bridges?

所以我們對這個項目感到非常自豪，我不得不說，我認為提前了 4 個月。我認為該項目的其他一些性能特徵絕對非常棒。我們的承包商 Petrofac 提供了很大的幫助，我想感謝他們在這方面所做的工作，非常出色。當然，還有來自國家的大力支持，但事實證明，這對國家和我們自己來說都是非常非常好的。穆雷，關於奧斯瓦爾德關於舊 35 美元和新平衡點的觀點，您認為它在哪裡銜接？

Thanks, Os, for that question. You could ask deferred taxes, and I'd begin to. Look, I think the difficulty in all this stuff is that what we're trying to convey to the market is balance point is more than just Brent. It's Brent plus RMM plus Henry Hub gas. Remember, 50% of our revenue, so to speak, come from the Brent linkage, 25% from RMM, et cetera, 25% from natural gas.

謝謝奧斯提出這個問題。你可以要求遞延稅款，我就會開始這麼做。聽著，我認為所有這些事情的困難在於，我們試圖向市場傳達的平衡點不僅僅是布蘭特原油。它是布蘭特原油加上 RMM 加上亨利中心天然氣。請記住，我們 50% 的收入可以說來自布蘭特原油聯運，25% 來自 RMM 等，25% 來自天然氣。

So when you think back to what we talked about at the Capital Markets Day, we said that we'd have a balance point around $40 with $10 to $12 RMM and around a $3 Henry Hub. And what's super cool about the third quarter is we were at that $42 Brent level, but RMM was $6, not $12; Henry Hub was $2, not $3. So that is a tremendous, tremendous balance point, improves the resilience of BP.

因此，當你回想一下我們在資本市場日討論的內容時，我們說我們的平衡點約為 40 美元，RMM 為 10 至 12 美元，亨利中心約為 3 美元。第三季最酷的一點是，我們的布蘭特原油價格為 42 美元，但 RMM 為 6 美元，而不是 12 美元；亨利中心是 2 美元，而不是 3 美元。所以這是一個巨大的平衡點，提高了血壓的恢復能力。

A few people have forgot that BP's portfolio is one of the best portfolios in the sector in a low price environment. And that is before we have ramped up fixed price contracts in Oman and fixed price contracts in Egypt with Raven. So just a bit of a pump there for how good our portfolio is in a low price environment.

有些人忘記了，英國石油公司的投資組合是低價環境下該行業最好的投資組合之一。那是在我們與 Raven 增加阿曼的固定價格合約和埃及的固定價格合約之前。因此，這對我們的投資組合在低價環境下的表現有一定的推動作用。

As far as would we have met the $35 breakeven, from previous conversations, you'd get the flavor of that, Os. It depends on what the gas price assumption was. It depends on what RMM was. In that particular promise, if I go back 5 years in time, if my memory is not bad, I think we were $3.25 gas, $14 RMM and $35 Brent. And so we'd be well below that on that particular measure would be my sense. And that would come from a combination of a lower dividend, much lower CapEx, much lower cost and production that's not too far away.

至於我們能否達到 35 美元的收支平衡，從之前的談話中，你會明白這一點，Os。這取決於天然氣價格假設是什麼。這取決於 RMM 是什麼。在那個特定的承諾中，如果我回到 5 年前，如果我的記性不錯的話，我認為我們的汽油價格為 3.25 美元，RMM 為 14 美元，布倫特原油為 35 美元。因此，根據我的感覺，按照特定的衡量標準，我們的表現將遠低於這一水平。這將來自於較低的股息、較低的資本支出、較低的成本和不久的將來的產量的組合。

So Os, I don't know if that helps you, but that's how my linkage is. I think what I'd say is we have a super resilient business and we have the flexibility to modulate CapEx up or down to what we think a sensible planning price is moving forward. As we described in August and September, that moment in time, we're thinking that the balance point would be $40, $10 to $12 and $3. And as we progress through year-end, we'll give you guidance next year on where we're choosing to balance that. And what I'd ask you to think about is we have a tremendously resilient business and it's okay to ramp up CapEx because it's very resilient in a low price environment.

所以奧斯，我不知道這是否對你有幫助，但這就是我的聯絡方式。我認為我想說的是，我們擁有超強彈性的業務，我們可以靈活地上下調整資本支出，以達到我們認為合理的規劃價格。正如我們在 8 月和 9 月所描述的，在那一刻，我們認為平衡點將是 40 美元、10 至 12 美元和 3 美元。隨著年底的進展，我們將在明年為您提供有關我們選擇平衡這一點的指導。我想請您考慮的是，我們擁有極具彈性的業務，增加資本支出是可以的，因為它在低價環境中非常有彈性。

Very good. And when you see some of the dividend yields that are out there, I think we really need to remind people of this portfolio that, in many ways, performs much better and has done for some time in a lower-priced world than a higher-priced world. And I think with corporate costs that were sort of stagnant for a few years, we're tackling those, we're driving them down. We're, as you well know, Os, Murray and I and the team, big believers in digital and agile. We talked in the thing about getting really after the procurement side of things with Leigh-Ann and the team.

非常好。當你看到一些股息收益率時，我認為我們確實需要提醒人們這個投資組合，在很多方面，它的表現要好得多，並且在一段時間內在較低價格的世界中比在較高價格的世界中表現得更好-定價的世界。我認為，由於企業成本在幾年內停滯不前，我們正在解決這些問題，我們正在降低它們。如您所知，Os、Murray 和我以及整個團隊都是數位化和敏捷的堅定信徒。我們與 Leigh-Ann 和團隊討論了真正專注於採購方面的事情。

So there's so much to do. There's just a lot of potential here in the business. And we're focused on it because, yes, there is a bit of an uncertain outlook here. And we know all too well what our priorities are on that framework, starting with the dividend. And we know all too well that the best way to preserve all of that is to drive that balance point down. And that's what we're all over.

所以有很多事情要做。這個行業有很大的潛力。我們關注它是因為，是的，這裡的前景有點不確定。我們非常清楚我們在該框架上的優先事項是什麼，從股息開始。我們非常清楚，保持這一切的最佳方法就是降低平衡點。這就是我們的全部結束了。

We'll take the next question from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele.

我們將回答高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna) 提出的下一個問題。米歇爾.

And congratulations on strong results in a very challenging quarter. Two questions, if I may. The first one is related to your disposals. I was wondering if you could give us some guidance on the scale of proceeds that you expect by year-end and through 2021.

恭喜您在充滿挑戰的季度取得了強勁的業績。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個與你的處置有關。我想知道您能否就您預計到年底和 2021 年的收益規模提供一些指導。

And then secondly, on your production guidance for Q4, it's quite unusual to have more maintenance in Q4 than in Q3. But then this is a very unusual year. I was wondering if you could perhaps unpick what are the key areas of maintenance that would affect the Q4 production.

其次，根據第四季的生產指導，第四季的維護工作比第三季更多是很不尋常的。但今年是非常不尋常的一年。我想知道您是否可以取消哪些會影響第四季度生產的關鍵維護領域。

Michele, thank you, and thanks for the congratulations. Right now, we'll take it, so thank you for that. I'll let Murray talk to the disposals. On the Q4, it is a good question and well-spotted. And the answer is the one that you have given, which is that we have pushed some turnarounds to the right this year, i.e., delayed them later into the year. So I talked to Gordon about this specific point during the week. We'd normally expect the peak really to be in 2Q and 3Q. It is different this year because we have pushed things to the right so that we can get work done. Of course, we were probably pushing them to the right, thinking that the virus would go away and we'd be back to normal.

米歇爾，謝謝你，也謝謝你的祝賀。現在，我們會接受它，所以謝謝你。我會讓穆雷和處置人員談談。關於Q4，這是一個很好的問題，而且位置很好。答案就是您給出的答案，那就是我們今年將一些週轉時間推遲到了右邊，即將它們推遲到今年晚些時候。因此，我在本週與戈登討論了這個具體問題。我們通常預期高峰確實出現在第二季和第三季。今年的情況有所不同，因為我們將事情推向正確的方向，以便我們能夠完成工作。當然，我們可能把他們推到了右邊，認為病毒會消失，我們就會恢復正常。

You then reached a point where the maintenance does have to get done and we're executing on those in the fourth quarter. There's a big one, for example, in Trinidad that I know about, Cassia, I think. And what I would tell you is that while production may be guided down a little bit, I think you should see a better mix, I hope, in the fourth quarter and a better margin mix. So I think you'll find it down in some of the lower-margin areas and doing better on some of the higher-margin areas. But having said that, we are just in the middle of another storm in the Gulf of Mexico. So we'll see how that all turns out. So good question. And hopefully, that helps. Your instincts are correct. Murray, disposals?

然後，您就到達了必須完成維護的階段，我們將在第四季度執行這些維護。例如，我知道在特立尼達有一個很大的，我想是卡西亞。我要告訴你的是，雖然產量可能會略有下降，但我認為你應該在第四季度看到更好的組合和更好的利潤率組合。所以我認為你會發現它在一些利潤率較低的領域表現不佳，而在一些利潤率較高的領域表現更好。但話雖如此，我們正處於墨西哥灣的另一場風暴之中。所以我們會看看結果如何。好問題。希望這會有所幫助。你的直覺是正確的。穆雷，處置？

Yes. On 4Q, we're -- as we stated, we're expecting the completion of the petchems transaction. So I would expect somewhere between $3 billion and $4 billion in the fourth quarter on a pretax basis, would be what you'd expect. As far as 2021, we haven't given guidance on that yet. We'll wait until next set of results to give guidance on that.

是的。正如我們所說，我們預計第四季度將完成 petchems 交易。因此，我預計第四季度稅前收入將在 30 億至 40 億美元之間，這正是您所期望的。就 2021 年而言，我們尚未就此給予指導。我們將等到下一組結果出來後再給予指導。

Thanks, Michele.

謝謝，米歇爾。

Okay. Thank you, Michele. We'll take the next question from Alastair Syme at Citi. Alastair.

好的。謝謝你，米歇爾。我們將回答花旗銀行 Alastair Syme 的下一個問題。阿拉斯泰爾。

Bernard, I just wanted to ask about hydrogen. I'm guessing you might have got a lot of investor questions on hydrogen in your recent roadshow. And I think at bp week, the summary that, I can't remember, it was either you or Guilia gave was sort of renewables as non-technology whereas hydrogen still has some distance to travel. So I'm sort of wondering here if you think investors are running ahead of themselves in the sort of questions you're getting or if you have any sort of fresh perspectives on this topic on how BP might tackle the market opportunity if, indeed, there is one.

伯納德，我只是想問氫氣的事。我猜您在最近的路演中可能有很多關於氫的投資者問題。我想在英國石油公司週上，我不記得了，你或吉利亞給的總結是可再生能源作為非技術，而氫氣還有很長的路要走。因此，我想知道，您是否認為投資者在您遇到的此類問題上有些超前，或者您對這個主題是否有任何新的觀點，即英國石油公司可能如何抓住市場機會，如果確實，有一個。

Thanks, Alastair. I had the privilege of being in Germany a couple of weeks ago before we were put on their quarantine list and spent a couple of days there with Daimler and with people in government and so on. And hydrogen is a huge focus in the German economy. They're certainly really going for it in terms of a way to -- they've talked about they have imported oil for many decades and they can see themselves being a hydrogen-importing country. They're setting up agreements with the Middle East, with country-to-country, with Australia. That was just an interesting perspective on hydrogen.

謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。幾週前，在我們被列入他們的隔離名單之前，我有幸來到了德國，並與戴姆勒和政府人員等一起在那裡呆了幾天。氫是德國經濟的一大焦點。他們確實是在尋求一種方式——他們已經談論過幾十年來他們一直進口石油，他們可以看到自己是氫進口國。他們正在與中東、各國以及澳洲達成協議。這只是對氫的一個有趣的看法。

I think more broadly, I think hydrogen is a core part of what we believe in for the future. Hydrogen is a business that will materialize for BP probably in the 2030-plus time frame, not in the here and now time frame. But we will look to build that business out over the coming decade. And I think the potential to become material in the period after 2030. And we'll be looking at it on 2 main dimensions. On the heavy industry and power side, it will be a mix of green and blue hydrogen. We've laid out our stall on that. We believe the world needs both. We believe the world needs a hydrogen economy to get going. And the best way to do that is to give it the best possible start. And green and blue are ways to do that, and you'll see us doing that. We're looking at a project in Lingen in Germany at the moment, which will be a green project and hydrogen supply to one of our refineries there.

我認為更廣泛地說，我認為氫是我們對未來的信念的核心部分。對於 BP 來說，氫能業務可能會在 2030 年以上的時間範圍內實現，而不是在此時此地。但我們將尋求在未來十年內拓展該業務。我認為這種潛力將在 2030 年之後變得實質。我們將從兩個主要維度來看待它。在重工業和電力方面，它將是綠色和藍色氫的混合。我們已經在上面擺好了攤位。我們相信世界兩者都需要。我們相信世界需要氫經濟才能發展。做到這一點的最好方法就是給它一個盡可能好的開始。綠色和藍色是做到這一點的方法，你會看到我們這樣做。我們目前正在德國林根考慮一個項目，該項目將是一個綠色項目，並向我們在那裡的煉油廠之一供應氫氣。

And then on mobility, I think we are believers in hydrogen being a fuel of choice and maybe the fuel of choice for heavy-duty transport over the medium term. We're in the midst of exploring that more, partnerships that we might have around the world. And that's work that's ongoing at the moment. So we believe in hydrogen. It's not going to be a material part of BP in the next 3 or 4 years. But it could easily be a material part, and I expect it will be, in the period 2030-plus. It will be a mixture of heavy industry and power as well as heavy-duty transport. And you should expect to see a bit more from us in the coming months and certainly as we head into 2021. So hopefully, that gives you a perspective. But it's a pretty exciting place and we want to be part of it. Thanks, Alastair.

然後在移動性方面，我認為我們相信氫是一種首選燃料，並且可能是中期內重型運輸的首選燃料。我們正在探索更多可能在世界各地建立的合作夥伴關係。這就是目前正在進行的工作。所以我們相信氫。在未來三、四年內，它不會成為英國石油公司的重要組成部分。但在 2030 年以後，它很可能會成為一個重要組成部分，而且我預計它將成為一個重要組成部分。它將是重工業、電力以及重型運輸的混合體。在接下來的幾個月裡，當然，在我們進入 2021 年時，您應該會看到我們更多的資訊。希望這能為您提供一個視角。但這是一個非常令人興奮的地方，我們希望成為其中的一部分。謝謝，阿拉斯泰爾。

Thank you, Alastair. We'll take the next question from Jason Gabelman at Cowen.

謝謝你，阿拉斯泰爾。我們將回答 Cowen 的 Jason Gabelman 提出的下一個問題。

I, first, wanted to ask about divestments. You cited that you're kind of halfway through the divestment program. But I think cash in the door is running below that pace. So can you just talk about where cash divestments are right now relative to that kind of 50% completion mark that you're discussing and the trajectory of cash divestments catching up to the headline number over time?

我首先想問撤資的問題。你提到你的撤資計畫已經進行了一半。但我認為現金的流動速度低於這個速度。那麼，您能否談談目前現金撤資相對於您正在討論的 50% 完成率的情況，以及隨著時間的推移現金撤資追趕總體數字的軌跡？

And then my second question, kind of same question asked on hydrogen, just on carbon capture, you announced a venture yesterday, I believe. And I'm just wondering what the timeline of that becoming a material solution to decarbonize energy is within BP and kind of your thoughts on it on a global landscape.

然後是我的第二個問題，與關於氫、碳捕獲的問題類似，我相信你昨天宣布了一項合資企業。我只是想知道英國石油公司內部成為能源脫碳材料解決方案的時間表是什麼，以及您對全球格局的看法。

Jason, thanks. I'll let Murray take the divestments question on hydrogen. The specific project you're talking about is here in Teesside in the United Kingdom in the northeast of England. I think it's a very exciting project that we will lead on but in partnership with others. The vision there is that we create a gas-fired power plant that is decarbonized with the carbon being captured, taken offshore and stored. And that's the venture that I think you saw announced yesterday, which was the transportation end of that. We also see the potential to create hydrogen. There again blue hydrogen in this case and capturing the carbon from that and sending it offshore. And we also see the potential to decarbonize the steel and fertilizer businesses that are there on the ground. It's a very industrial part of the U.K. and create a sort of leading decarbonized, green, industrial cluster, maybe the first of its kind in the world.

傑森，謝謝。我將讓穆雷回答有關氫氣的撤資問題。你所說的具體項目位於英格蘭東北部的英國蒂賽德。我認為這是一個非常令人興奮的項目，我們將與其他人合作領導這個項目。我們的願景是創建一座脫碳燃氣發電廠，將碳捕獲、運送至海上並儲存起來。我想你昨天看到的就是這個項目，也就是運輸方面的項目。我們也看到了製造氫氣的潛力。在這種情況下，再次出現藍色氫，並從中捕獲碳並將其發送到海上。我們也看到了當地鋼鐵和化肥企業脫碳的潛力。它是英國工業化程度很高的地區，創造了一種領先的脫碳、綠色工業集群，也許是世界上第一個此類產業集群。

And I think would be an incredible example of the revitalization of an area that has been around for decades but could actually have a very, very new future. We're working on that. We're working right now with government. Strong support from the U.K. government to put in place the sort of -- it's more of the fiscal certainty, it's not about necessarily incentives, but it's around the regulations and the fiscal certainty that we need to be able to make those investments. And I would expect to see us reaching some milestones on that project early next year. And you could see it up and running towards the middle to the second half of the decade. So it's an exciting project. And hydrogen will be central to it as well as CCUS. And I think if we can get some more certainty by the end of the year, I think you'll see us moving into the next stage on that probably by the middle of next year. Murray, cash proceeds versus announced?

我認為這將是一個令人難以置信的例子，說明這個地區已經存在了幾十年，但實際上可能有一個非常非常新的未來。我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們現在正在與政府合作。英國政府大力支持落實這種政策——更多的是財政確定性，不一定是激勵措施，而是圍繞我們進行這些投資所需的法規和財政確定性。我希望明年初我們能在該專案上實現一些里程碑。你可以看到它在本世紀中下半葉開始運作。所以這是一個令人興奮的項目。氫將成為它以及 CCUS 的核心。我認為，如果我們能夠在今年年底之前獲得更多確定性，我想您可能會在明年年中看到我們進入下一階段。穆雷，現金收益還是宣布的？

Yes. So we announced a $25 billion program of proceeds through 2025. About half of those have been announced now, including the additional $0.5 billion that we announced this quarter. Proceeds, a big one is the petchems transaction. We obviously announced that sale with INEOS a while back. We expect to close in 4Q, where we'll get somewhere between $3 billion and $4 billion. And then we expect the residual amount of that to be paid out in the first half of next year.

是的。因此，我們宣布了 2025 年為止的 250 億美元收益計劃。其中大約一半現已宣布，包括我們本季宣布的額外 5 億美元。收益中，一大筆是石化交易。顯然，我們不久前就宣布了與英力士的出售。我們預計將在第四季度完成，屆時我們將獲得 30 億至 40 億美元的收入。然後我們預計剩餘金額將在明年上半年支付。

On Alaska, which is the other one, if you scour back through our press releases, you'll see that the payments from that, some payments have already come. Future payments come in the form of a bond and then effectively a revenue-sharing mechanism. As oil -- it is really a question of oil price. As oil price improves, we'll start to get a lot of that headed our way. If oil price stays low, it will be delayed for a while. And then it's just a choice for the counterparty about when they cash that debt out. It has a nice interest rate, so I'm happy to take it as interest as opposed to principal right now. So that will be -- that's how that will flow. And then of course, future announcements, the next 12, will just depend on when we announce them and what the cash flow looks like. I hope that helps, Jason.

在阿拉斯加，這是另一處，如果你仔細瀏覽我們的新聞稿，你會看到來自那裡的付款，一些付款已經到了。未來的付款以債券的形式出現，然後有效地採用收入分享機制。至於石油——這實際上是一個石油價格的問題。隨著石油價格的上漲，我們將開始得到許多好處。如果油價持續走低，則可能會延後一段時間。然後，這只是交易對手何時兌現債務的選擇。它的利率很好，所以我現在很高興將其視為利息而不是本金。所以事情將會是這樣的。當然，未來的公告，接下來的 12 個公告，將僅取決於我們何時宣布以及現金流情況。我希望這有幫助，傑森。

Okay. We'll take the next question from Peter Low at Redburn. Peter.

好的。我們將回答 Redburn 的 Peter Low 提出的下一個問題。彼得.

The first was that you mentioned you have the flexibility to reduce CapEx below the bottom end of the $13 billion to $15 billion range next year, should you need to. What will be catalyst to do that, i.e., if oil prices and refining margins remained around current levels, so below your planning assumptions, should we assume you're within the guided range or you'd seek to lower it?

首先，您提到如果需要的話，明年您可以靈活地將資本支出降低到 130 億美元至 150 億美元範圍的下限以下。實現這一目標的催化劑是什麼，即，如果油價和煉油利潤保持在當前水平附近，低於您的計劃假設，我們是否應該假設您處於指導範圍內，或者您會尋求降低它？

And the second one was a follow-up on the Reliance retail JV in India. Has that contributed positively to marketing earnings from day 1, i.e., kind of in the quarter? Or should we view it more as an investment in the future earnings growth?

第二個項目是印度 Reliance 零售合資企業的後續項目。從第一天開始，即本季度，這是否對行銷收入產生了積極的貢獻？或者我們應該更多地將其視為對未來獲利成長的投資？

On the second one, there is some contribution, Peter. But I think it is about the future and it's about the future growth. And that's where you'll see, I think we've added some sites already. But the plan is to build out those over the next several years. So look at it as a source of growth. And there'll be some contribution today but not in a material sense. The materiality comes through the growth. And your question around guidance around capital, Murray?

關於第二個問題，有一些貢獻，彼得。但我認為這關係到未來，關係到未來的成長。這就是您會看到的，我想我們已經添加了一些網站。但計劃是在未來幾年內擴建這些項目。因此，將其視為增長的來源。今天會有一些貢獻，但不是物質意義上的。物質性來自成長。莫瑞，你對資本指導有疑問嗎？

Yes. So the way we've guided so far around capital is while we're above the $35 billion of net debt, we'll be in the $13 billion to $15 billion range. And as Bernard said earlier today, we'll be at the lower end of that range next year. How we decide what to do will very much depend on what oil price is, what gas price is and what RMM is, that 50-25-25 rule that I've helped you with. Gas price is pretty high. It's well above the $2 that we encountered in the third quarter. Forwards are sitting around $3. So we have a decision to make about where to pitch that. And then tricky decision is on oil versus RMM.

是的。因此，到目前為止，我們圍繞資本的指導方式是，當我們的淨債務超過 350 億美元時，我們將處於 130 億至 150 億美元的範圍內。正如伯納德今天早些時候所說，明年我們將處於該範圍的下限。我們如何決定做什麼很大程度上取決於石油價格、天然氣價格以及 RMM 是什麼，也就是我已幫助您制定的 50-25-25 規則。天然氣價格相當高。它遠高於我們在第三季遇到的 2 美元。前鋒的價格約為 3 美元。因此，我們需要決定在哪裡進行推廣。然後棘手的決定是石油還是 RMM。

I think all I'd say is we haven't made that decision yet, Peter. But we have incredible flexibility. And you only need to look at the run rate this quarter on organic CapEx to see that we were at $2.5 billion on organic cash CapEx. It's very easy to stay at that level or lower if we need to. So we're kind of remaining flexible. We'll decide and give you guidance as we move into next year. It's too early to give guidance on that space.

我想我想說的是我們還沒做出決定，彼得。但我們擁有令人難以置信的靈活性。您只需查看本季有機資本支出的運作率即可發現，我們的有機現金資本支出為 25 億美元。如果我們需要的話，很容易保持在這個水平或更低。所以我們保持靈活性。我們將在明年做出決定並為您提供指導。現在就該領域提供指導還為時過早。

Very good. And I'd just again, Peter, remind people, I think, that, that financial framework and those numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 is a really important thing for us all to anchor on. Because the reason we gave that is so that the market could understand the priorities of uses of cash for our company. And we intend to stick fully by it. So that's also a useful guide and we'll land the planning prices when they come.

非常好。彼得，我想再次提醒人們，我認為財務框架和數字 1、2、3、4 和 5 對我們所有人來說都是非常重要的。因為我們這樣做的原因是為了讓市場了解我們公司現金使用的優先順序。我們打算完全堅持下去。因此，這也是一個有用的指南，我們將在規劃價格到來時確定它們。

But we will be -- there's the potential as ever for upside next year. And Murray's 4Q for buybacks could be earlier. But we're not going to plan. We're not going to hope in a planning sense. We're going to prudently plan our business and continue to do what we need to do to drive that balance point down. And the environment will be what it is. And we'll respond accordingly and we have that flexibility. So thanks for the questions, Peter.

但我們會——明年仍然有上漲的潛力。穆雷第四季的回購可能會更早。但我們不會計劃。我們不會在計劃意義上抱持希望。我們將謹慎規劃我們的業務，並繼續做我們需要做的事情來降低平衡。環境將是這樣的。我們會做出相應的反應，並且我們有這種靈活性。謝謝你的提問，彼得。

Okay. Thank you, Peter. We'll take the next question from Chris Kuplent at Bank of America.

好的。謝謝你，彼得。我們將回答美國銀行的 Chris Kuplent 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. And I think I've only got one more question left. And I think, Murray, maybe I didn't quite get the answer and I think it was asked before. When you say -- back to the topic of CapEx, when you say you'll be at that lower $13 billion and including inorganics, just wanted to double-check whether you can actually tell us how you deal with that Equinor deal. Is that already in that number when you talk about 2021? Or are you having to take a guess as well and you're risking it in that $13 billion guidance? Just wanted to get a better handle on where we could go in terms of 2020 to '21 organic CapEx rather than including inorganics, if that makes sense.

是的。我想我只剩下一個問題了。我想，穆雷，也許我沒有完全得到答案，我想以前就有人問過這個問題。當你說——回到資本支出的話題，當你說你的資本支出將達到 130 億美元（包括無機資產）時，你只是想仔細檢查一下你是否能真正告訴我們你如何處理 Equinor 的交易。當你談論 2021 年時，這個數字已經在這個數字中了嗎？或者您是否也必須進行猜測，並且您在 130 億美元的指導中冒著猜測的風險？只是想更了解 2020 年至 21 年有機資本支出的方向，而不是包括無機資本支出（如果有意義的話）。

Go ahead, Murray.

繼續吧，穆雷。

Yes. Chris, you can see why I'm not really answering the question. I don't know when that thing is going to close. It's somewhere around year-end, so it could slide one way or the other. And we'll give you guidance next quarter as we come clear on that. You can plan on whichever direction you want inside your modeling.

是的。克里斯，你明白為什麼我沒有真正回答這個問題了。我不知道那件事什麼時候會結束。現在是年底左右，所以它可能會以某種方式下滑。當我們明確這一點時，我們將在下個季度為您提供指導。您可以在建模中規劃您想要的任何方向。

And I think the feedback had been that the reason that we're collapsing it all is, at the end of the day, I think this distinction is it's all capital and it's definitely all cash. The timing, as Murray says, is the timing. But we want to increasingly look at it as one unit and not be letting somehow people off the hook with a distinction between inorganics and organic. It is all capital, it is all cash and it's all about the balance sheet, net debt and the investment plan. So Chris, we'll let you make the assumption that you make. Thanks for keeping it to one. Craig?

我認為反饋是我們將其全部瓦解的原因是，歸根結底，我認為這種區別在於它全部是資本，而且絕對全部是現金。正如穆雷所說，時機就是時機。但我們希望越來越多地將其視為一個整體，而不是讓人們擺脫無機物和有機物之間的區別。這都是資本，都是現金，都是關於資產負債表、淨債務和投資計畫的。所以克里斯，我們會讓你做出你所做的假設。感謝您將其保留為一。克雷格？

Yes. We'll take the next question from Colin Smith at Panmure Gordon.

是的。我們將回答 Panmure Gordon 的 Colin Smith 提出的下一個問題。

Yes. It was back to gas. One of the projects, Bernard, you didn't mention was where things stand on Tortue. And perhaps more broadly, if you could comment about how further developments in Mauritania and Senegal play into the 25 million tonnes and 30 million tonnes 2025 and 2030 LNG targets. And in particular, what triggers them into becoming proper full-blown FID projects?

是的。又回到了汽油時代。伯納德，你沒有提到的項目之一是 Tortue 上的情況。也許更廣泛地說，您能否評論茅利塔尼亞和塞內加爾的進一步發展如何實現 2025 年和 2030 年 2500 萬噸和 3000 萬噸液化天然氣目標。特別是，是什麼促使它們成為成熟的 FID 計畫？

Thanks, Colin. I think on Tortue, it has been impacted by COVID, there's no question about that. So that project has slipped to the right. It is the first phase in a multiphase development there. The reality is that the resources are there. They're giant resources. They're high quality. We've got supportive governments in 2 countries. I think we are positive on the medium- to longer-term outlook for gas. We're believers in gas. And the trigger for the subsequent phases, quite frankly, is always going to be that very, very simple thing of can we meet the return thresholds that we've laid out? And we've been very clear on what they need to be for a new gas greenfield project. So we'll be working to meet those. And no surprise that, that will involve things such as what the cost structure is, what the market that we can secure is and ultimately as well what the fiscal structure is in the country, so working on all fronts.

謝謝，科林。我認為 Tortue 受到了新冠疫情的影響，這是毫無疑問的。所以這個項目已經滑到右邊了。這是那裡多階段開發的第一階段。事實是，資源就在那裡。它們是巨大的資源。它們質量很高。我們得到了兩個國家政府的支持。我認為我們對天然氣的中長期前景持樂觀態度。我們是天然氣的信徒。坦白說，後續階段的觸發因素總是非常非常簡單的事情，也就是我們能否達到我們設定的報酬門檻？我們非常清楚新天然氣綠地計畫需要什麼。因此，我們將努力滿足這些要求。毫不奇怪，這將涉及諸如成本結構是什麼、我們可以確保的市場是什麼以及最終以及該國的財政結構是什麼等問題，因此要在各個方面開展工作。

But if you're a believer, as we are, in big, large-scale, high-quality resources, good quality always finds a way to market. And I think we're optimistic about the subsequent phases. And the team is working very, very hard and very well actually on Tortue Phase 1. But there has been delay because of COVID, no question. I think we're unable to get the breakwater in this year because of that. But there is nothing fundamentally wrong there, it's simply the impact of the pandemic. So hopefully, that helps you. Murray, on the targets, on the 25 to 30?

但如果您像我們一樣相信大型、大規模、高品質的資源，那麼優質的產品總能找到進入市場的途徑。我認為我們對後續階段持樂觀態度。事實上，團隊在 Tortue 第一階段工作得非常非常努力、非常好。但毫無疑問，由於新冠疫情，進度有所延遲。我認為因此我們今年無法建造防波堤。但這並沒有什麼根本性的問題，這只是大流行的影響。希望這對您有所幫助。穆雷，關於目標，25到30？

Yes. Thanks, Colin. So the targets that we put out there, 2025, it's pretty much secure. So that growth in mtpa that we talked about is pretty much all contracted now, whether that's through deals like Coral, for example, or deals like a venture in the U.S. That growth to 25 mtpa is pretty much secure now and it's just a matter of those projects being constructed and offtake being gathered and then honoring those contracts. So that should give you guys a lot of confidence that profitability from LNG is pretty much locked into 2025.

是的。謝謝，科林。所以我們設定的 2025 年目標是非常安全的。因此，我們談到的每年 25 噸的增長現在幾乎全部收縮，無論是通過 Coral 等交易，還是通過在美國的合資企業等交易。現在增長到 25 噸/年幾乎是安全的，這只是一個問題這些正在建造的項目和承購被收集起來，然後履行這些合約。因此，這應該會讓你們充滿信心，液化天然氣的獲利能力幾乎鎖定在 2025 年。

When you move beyond that and you look at our conservative target of 30 mtpa, beyond that, we have both merchant and equity opportunities. And if the equity opportunities hit the hurdles we have, great, we'll get it through equity offtake. If it doesn't, then we continue to pursue lots of merchant deals. We love the LNG business. It's a great place to use our scale and to divert cargoes across geographies to create profit. And it aligns well to low-carbon strategy moving forward. So very excited about a 2025 underpinned and equity or merchant could make up the 2030 target. And hopefully, in time, we beat it.

當您超越這個目標並查看我們 30 公噸/年的保守目標時，除此之外，我們還有商業和股權機會。如果股權機會遇到了我們所面臨的障礙，那就太好了，我們將透過股權承購來獲得它。如果沒有，那麼我們將繼續尋求大量的商業交易。我們熱愛液化天然氣業務。這是利用我們的規模並跨地區轉移貨物以創造利潤的好地方。它與未來的低碳策略非常契合。對於 2025 年的支撐和股權或商業可以實現 2030 年的目標感到非常興奮。希望我們能夠及時戰勝它。

Thanks, Colin.

謝謝，科林。

Thank you, Colin. We'll take the next question from Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin.

謝謝你，科林。我們將回答摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats 提出的下一個問題。馬丁.

Yes. I just had one. I wanted to follow up quickly on Lucas' question on the U.S. But I was hoping you could sort of quantify a few things. You talked very positively about further cost reductions in the Upstream. But I was wondering how that translates particularly to your Permian position. I think on the previous call, I think Murray said that the average breakeven in the Permian had now sort of dropped to something like $35 a barrel or so. But I was wondering if that number had come down even further. And sort of related to that, if you look at the oil-directed rig count, we've now added, I think, 32 rigs in the last 5 weeks. I was wondering if you have active plans also to add rigs.

是的。我剛喝了一個。我想快速跟進盧卡斯關於美國的問題，但我希望你能能量化一些事情。您非常積極地談到了上游成本的進一步降低。但我想知道這如何轉化為你的二疊紀位置。我想在之前的電話會議上，穆雷說過二疊紀盆地的平均損益平衡點現在已經下降到每桶 35 美元左右。但我想知道這個數字是否會進一步下降。與此相關的是，如果你看一下石油鑽井平台數量，我認為我們現在在過去 5 週內增加了 32 個鑽井平台。我想知道您是否也有積極的計劃來添加鑽孔機。

Thanks, Martin. Murray will comment on the breakeven. What I can tell you is that the business does continue to do what we wanted it to. We planned $350 million of synergies by 2021. We delivered them a year early. We've upgraded that number to $400 million per annum. So that's helping us enormously. We were running 13 rigs in January. I think we're running 1 rig today. And you will see that rig count start to creep back up as we head into next year. You'll see some activity in the Permian, but you've also heard us talk about the very strong activity in the Haynesville. And with gas over $3 next year, I think you'll see that being a real focus of the activity. So Murray, anything to add on breakevens or...

謝謝，馬丁。穆雷將對盈虧平衡發表評論。我可以告訴你的是，該公司確實繼續按照我們的意願行事。我們計劃在 2021 年實現 3.5 億美元的協同效應。我們提前一年實現了這些目標。我們已將該數字提升至每年 4 億美元。這對我們有很大幫助。一月我們運作了 13 台鑽孔機。我想我們今天正在運行 1 台鑽孔機。當我們進入明年時，你會看到鑽孔機數量開始回升。您會看到二疊紀的一些活動，但您也聽到我們談論海恩斯維爾的非常強烈的活動。明年汽油價格將超過 3 美元，我想您會發現這是活動的真正焦點。所以穆雷，有什麼可以增加收支平衡的嗎？

Yes. I think ask me that question again next quarter. We've got our business reviews happening over the next month, Martijn, where the team is busy looking at the bids that are coming in and deciding where we pitch this stuff. So ask me the question again. I don't think I'd say there's a material change yet. But we've got the detailed reviews. We'll decide where the investment goes, as Bernard said, with the leadership team. And then ask me again and we can give you some help.

是的。我想下個季度再問我這個問題。 Martijn，我們將在下個月進行業務審查，團隊正忙於查看即將到來的投標並決定我們在哪裡推銷這些東西。所以再問我這個問題。我認為我不會說有實質的改變。但我們已經得到了詳細的評論。正如伯納德所說，我們將與領導團隊一起決定投資的去向。然後再次詢問我，我們可以為您提供一些幫助。

Okay. Thank you, Martijn. And we'll take the final question from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC. Biraj.

好的。謝謝你，馬丁。我們將回答 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria 提出的最後一個問題。比拉吉。

I had a couple, please. The first one is on Slide, I think, 14 and 15 on the costs. It just looks like a huge amount of cost has obviously been taken out and you've got a bit more runway there. As we get into a commodity recovery scenario, I would have thought your leverage to commodity prices could increase quite substantially if you were able to keep a lid on costs. So that margin expansion could look quite significant. So could you say anything about -- I don't know whether it's rule of thumb or any other metric, but if you could quantify how your sensitivity to those commodity prices will change from 2018 to 2019 to 2023 over time? I'm just trying to get a sense of how much that increase could be.

我有一對，拜託。第一個是幻燈片，我想，第 14 和 15 個是關於成本的。看起來巨額成本顯然已經被削減，而且你還有更多的跑道。當我們進入大宗商品復甦情景時，我原以為，如果您能夠控製成本，那麼您對大宗商品價格的槓桿作用可能會大幅增加。因此，利潤率的擴張可能看起來相當顯著。那麼你能說一下嗎——我不知道這是經驗法則還是任何其他指標，但你是否可以量化你對這些商品價格的敏感度從2018 年到2019 年再到2023 年隨著時間的推移將如何變化？我只是想了解增幅會是多少。

And then the second question is on disclosures. Just to clarify, as you're moving to the new split in 2021, are you looking to break out the convenience retail business from refining? Because the outlook for those 2 businesses is obviously quite different. So that will be also quite useful as well.

第二個問題是關於披露的。需要澄清的是，隨著您在 2021 年進行新的拆分，您是否希望將便利零售業務從精煉業務中分離出來？因為這兩家企業的前景顯然截然不同。所以這也將非常有用。

Very good. Murray will take the disclosure question, maybe some numbers around margin, I'm not sure. What I will tell you is that from a leadership perspective, we will keep a lid on costs. Murray and I don't expect the 2023 number here to be the end of the story either. We will expect, quite frankly, when you're spending the amount of money that we spend on cash costs, up towards $20 billion a year, we're going to continue to drive cost out of the system right throughout this decade. And that's why we're doubling our investment into digital. That's why we're introducing what I think is the first agile structured oil and gas organization in our sector that Gordon is leading on. That's why we're doing 0-based budgeting with supply chain.

非常好。穆雷將回答披露問題，也許是關於保證金的一些數字，我不確定。我要告訴你的是，從領導的角度來看，我們將控製成本。穆雷和我也不認為 2023 年的數字會是故事的結局。坦白說，我們預計，當您每年花在現金成本上的金額達到 200 億美元時，我們將在這十年中繼續降低系統成本。這就是我們對數位化投資加倍的原因。這就是為什麼我們要推出戈登領導的我們行業中第一個敏捷結構的石油和天然氣組織。這就是我們對供應鏈進行零基預算的原因。

That's why the whole agenda around restructuring the company and putting 50% of the layers within 5 layers of me rather than 20%, having the number of executives from 240 to 120. So these are all things that are designed to permanently change. But I don't want you to think that they will stop because we will continue. Part of the business of business that we talk about is driving cost out of the system. And it's got to be relentless and it will be relentless for us. And if prices recover, which there's no reason why you can't imagine a positive outlook for the environment, investment levels, I think, are back at 2003 levels. So I have some sympathy with people who can see a strong price environment coming here over the next few years. Who knows, but it's certainly possible, then we expect to fully capitalize on that and not let increasing costs erode that commodity price increase. Murray, anything you'd add?

這就是為什麼整個議程圍繞著重組公司並將 50% 的層級放在我的 5 層之內，而不是 20%，高階主管人數從 240 人增加到 120 人。所以這些都是為了永久改變而設計的。但我不希望你認為他們會停止，因為我們會繼續。我們談論的業務的一部分是降低系統成本。它必須是無情的，對我們來說也是無情的。如果價格回升（您沒有理由不能想像環境的正面前景），我認為投資水準將回到 2003 年的水準。因此，我對那些看到未來幾年這裡將出現強勁價格環境的人們表示同情。誰知道呢，但這肯定是可能的，然後我們期望充分利用這一點，而不是讓成本增加侵蝕大宗商品價格的上漲。莫瑞，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The rule of thumb, to your question, Biraj, we publish our rules of thumb about once a year. You've got the current ones. As we grow out the future projects, that's how you'd think about it. We're bringing on very, very, very high-margin, flexible barrels in Tangguh and Mad Dog Phase 2. So I'm sure that, that will impact the rule of thumb. When we give you a new rule of thumb in the future, and you can guess what direction that will be.

經驗法則，對於你的問題，Biraj，我們大約每年發布一次經驗法則。你已經有了當前的。當我們開發未來的專案時，這就是你的想法。我們在 Tangguh 和 Mad Dog 第二階段引入了非常、非常、非常高利潤、靈活的桶。所以我確信，這將影響經驗法則。當我們將來給你一個新的經驗法則時，你可以猜到那會是什麼方向。

And then on disclosures, yes. So we'll show you guys after year-end results. We'll do a dry run through with you, I suppose, is a nice way to say it and introducing what the disclosures looks like ahead of 1Q results. Craig and the team will be setting up a date for that. As you say, we will be reorganizing how we present it. And of course, one of the things we're most excited about showcasing is what you talked about in convenience and mobility, actually pulling that apart and sharing with you the strength of that $5 billion of EBITDA and how it's going to grow over time. So absolutely, we're doing that, and you'll see that come in due course, guys.

然後就披露而言，是的。所以我們將在年終結果後向大家展示。我想，我們將與您一起進行一次演練，這是一個很好的表達方式，並在第一季結果之前介紹披露情況。克雷格和他的團隊將為此安排一個日期。正如你所說，我們將重新組織我們的呈現方式。當然，我們最興奮展示的事情之一就是您談到的便利性和移動性，實際上將其拆開並與您分享 50 億美元 EBITDA 的實力以及它將如何隨著時間的推移而增長。所以絕對，我們正在這樣做，你們會在適當的時候看到這一點，夥計們。

Very good. Thanks, Biraj. Appreciate the questions.

非常好。謝謝，比拉傑。感謝您提出的問題。

Yes. Thank you. And that ends the questions this morning. Let me then hand over to Bernard as usual for a couple of closing comments.

是的。謝謝。今天早上的問題到此結束。接下來，讓我像往常一樣請伯納德發表幾句結束語。

Great. Thanks, Craig, and thanks, Murray, and thanks to all of you. Thanks for listening. It's certainly been a busy all year here at BP. We think we've achieved a lot. I hope you do, too. But it's also been a busy year for you all. It's been a challenging year for everyone. And most of all, it's been a challenging year for society as a whole.

偉大的。謝謝克雷格，謝謝默里，謝謝你們所有人。感謝收聽。在 BP，這一年無疑是忙碌的。我們認為我們已經取得了很多成就。我希望你也這樣做。但對你們所有人來說，這也是忙碌的一年。對每個人來說，這都是充滿挑戰的一年。最重要的是，對整個社會來說，這是充滿挑戰的一年。

We've set out our stall on transforming the company. And we're very committed and we're very confident, I guess, if you can say it that way, that the distinctiveness of the approach that we've laid out will provide tremendous value over the longer term. We've had a lot of support for this. And obviously and understandably, we've also had a lot of questions. It's a big transformation. And we understand that there are people with different views.

我們已經為公司轉型做好準備了。我們非常堅定，我們非常有信心，我想，如果你可以這麼說的話，我們所發展的方法的獨特性將在長期內提供巨大的價值。我們對此得到了很多支持。顯然並且可以理解的是，我們也有很多問題。這是一個很大的轉變。我們知道有人有不同的觀點。

But for us, we believe the strategy is right for us and we believe strongly that it's right for our shareholders. And having spent a lot of time over the last several months talking about strategy and talking about ambition, it's nice to be able to spend a bit more time now talking about the business of business, talking about our oil and gas business, which is going to be the engine of this transition here over the coming years. And our focus is now on disciplined delivery of this strategy, quarter in, quarter out, and a strong focus on creating shareholder value. And I hope that today gave you a little glimpse into what the company is capable, our teams have to deliver that sort of performance in this type of world. My heart goes out to them, as I said on my e-mail to them today. They've been astounding.

但對我們來說，我們相信該策略適合我們，我們堅信它適合我們的股東。在過去的幾個月裡花了很多時間談論戰略和雄心，很高興現在能夠花更多時間談論商業業務，談論我們的石油和天然氣業務，這正在發展中。成為未來幾年這一轉變的引擎。我們現在的重點是每季嚴格執行這項策略，並專注於創造股東價值。我希望今天能讓您稍微了解一下公司的能力，我們的團隊必須在這種類型的世界中提供這種績效。正如我今天在給他們的電子郵件中所說的那樣，我的心與他們同在。他們已經令人震驚了。

And with that, I hope you and your loved ones stay safe and well over the coming months. We look forward to your feedback, your questions, your challenge as ever, and we'll be in touch. And I'm hoping that 2021 is going to be a brighter year for the world, and that's what we're all working towards. So thank you for your time, thank you for your interest, and we'll leave you all to it. Thanks, everybody.

藉此，我希望您和您所愛的人在接下來的幾個月裡保持安全和健康。我們一如既往地期待您的回饋、問題和挑戰，我們將與您聯繫。我希望 2021 年對世界來說將是更光明的一年，這也是我們所有人共同努力的目標。感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，感謝您的關注，我們將讓您自行解決。謝謝大家。