Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2024 fourth-quarter results presentation, and apologies for our late start this morning.

早安，歡迎來到豐業銀行 2024 年第四季業績發表會，對於我們今天早上遲到表示歉意。

My name is John McCartney, and I'm Head of Investor Relations here at Scotiabank.

我叫約翰‧麥卡尼，是豐業銀行投資人關係主管。

Presenting to you this morning are Scott Thomson, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer; Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer; and Phil Thomas, our Chief Risk Officer.

今天早上向您介紹的是豐業銀行總裁兼執行長 Scott Thomson； Raj Viswanathan，我們的財務長；以及我們的首席風險長 Phil Thomas。

Following our comments, we will be glad to take your questions.

根據我們的評論，我們將很高興回答您的問題。

Also present to take your questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Aris Bogdaneris from Canadian Banking; Jacqui Allard from Global Wealth Management; Francisco Aristeguieta from International Banking; and Travis Machen from Global Banking and Markets.

豐業銀行的以下高階主管也在場回答您的問題： 加拿大銀行業的 Aris Bogdaneris；全球財富管理公司的 Jacqui Allard；來自國際銀行業的 Francisco Aristeguieta；和來自全球銀行與市場的 Travis Machen。

Before we start and on behalf of those speaking today, I refer you to slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我代表今天的發言者，請您參閱我們簡報的第二張投影片，其中包含豐業銀行對前瞻性陳述的謹慎態度。

And with that, I will now turn the call over to Scott.

現在，我將把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. 2024 was a foundational year for the bank.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。 2024 年是該銀行的奠基之年。

Nearly one year ago, we held our Investor Day and shared with you our new enterprise strategy to deliver sustainable, profitable growth and maximize shareholder value.

大約一年前，我們舉辦了投資者日活動，與您分享了我們的新企業策略，以實現可持續的盈利增長並實現股東價值最大化。

We also committed to transparently sharing our progress as we entered into our first year of execution against our plans.

當我們進入執行計劃的第一年時，我們也承諾透明地分享我們的進展。

Our results reflect a year of transition as we focused on our enterprise-wide priorities, align our capital allocation to each of our business lines, and started our shift to a value over volume strategy.

我們的業績反映了轉型的一年，我們專注於整個企業的優先事項，調整我們每個業務線的資本配置，並開始轉向價值超過數量的策略。

Our results demonstrate both early progress and areas where more work needs to be done.

我們的結果表明了早期進展以及需要做更多工作的領域。

Overall, earnings grew marginally in 2024, consistent with our expectations in Investor Day guidance.

總體而言，2024 年獲利小幅成長，與我們在投資者日指導中的預期一致。

Recapping our areas of focus.

回顧我們的重點領域。

First, our North Star increasing the number of primary clients.

首先，我們的北極星增加了主要客戶的數量。

We continue to focus on growth in client segments where we have the scale and product capability to compete and win lead relationships.

我們繼續專注於客戶細分市場的成長，在這些客戶細分市場中，我們擁有足夠的規模和產品能力來競爭並贏得領先關係。

In our global wealth business, we are relentlessly focused on growing our advice channels and providing holistic wealth solutions to attract high-value primary clients to the bank.

在我們的全球財富業務中，我們堅持不懈地致力於擴大我們的諮詢管道並提供全面的財富解決方案，以吸引高價值的主要客戶到銀行。

This is driving strong growth in the business.

這正在推動業務的強勁成長。

We are ranked number two amongst peers and earnings growth in the most recent five-year period and delivered record net income in 2024.

我們在最近五年的獲利成長和同業中排名第二，並在 2024 年實現了創紀錄的淨利潤。

We increased personal and commercial deposits by 7% year over year.

個人和商業存款年增7%。

In Canadian banking, 30% of our clients now meet our primacy definition, up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year.

在加拿大銀行業，我們 30% 的客戶現在符合我們的首要定義，年增 1.5 個百分點。

And across our retail markets, we have increased total primary clients by 280,000.

在我們的零售市場中，我們的主要客戶總數增加了 28 萬名。

While this progress is meaningful, in order to meet our 2 million increase primary client target by 2028 we need to accelerate our progress in 2025 and beyond.

雖然這項進展很有意義，但為了實現到 2028 年主要客戶數量增加 200 萬的目標，我們需要在 2025 年及以後加快進展。

Next, we have focused on capital allocation to grow and scale across North America.

接下來，我們將重點放在資本配置，以在北美地區實現成長和規模化。

Today, all incremental capital is being allocated to our priority businesses.

如今，所有增量資本都被分配到我們的優先業務。

This has been an example of enterprise-wide thinking at work as our business lines have made trade-offs to support the all-bank strategy.

這是全企業思維發揮作用的一個例子，因為我們的業務線已經做出了權衡以支持全銀行策略。

One of the most rewarding outcomes of this past year has been witnessing the international banking team deliver better results with less capital and generating impressive earnings growth with improved returns.

過去一年最有價值的成果之一是見證國際銀行團隊以更少的資本取得更好的業績，並透過提高回報實現令人印象深刻的獲利成長。

We are delivering on our commitment to remix our portfolio to accelerate growth in fee income.

我們正在兌現重新組合投資組合以加速費用收入成長的承諾。

We are de-emphasizing our indirect lending only channels in domestic mortgage and auto.

我們不再強調國內抵押貸款和汽車領域的間接貸款管道。

And in our global banking and markets business in the US, we are optimizing capital and building out our ancillary business capabilities.

在美國的全球銀行和市場業務中，我們正在優化資本並增強我們的輔助業務能力。

We have embarked on select inorganic initiatives to support our North American strategy including our agreement to sell CrediScotia in Peru and our investment in KeyCorp, which is an opportunity to profitably deploy capital into the US market.

我們已經開始採取一些無機舉措來支持我們的北美策略，包括我們同意出售秘魯的 CrediScotia 以及對 KeyCorp 的投資，這是將資本部署到美國市場並實現盈利的機會。

Finally, and importantly, we have strengthened our balance sheet.

最後，也是重要的是，我們加強了資產負債表。

We have a solid Tier 1 capital ratio of 13.1%, and we have grown our allowance for credit losses on the balance sheet by approximately 22% since the end of fiscal 2022, including a performing allowance build of approximately $800 million.

我們擁有 13.1% 的穩健一級資本比率，自 2022 財年末以來，我們已將資產負債表上的信貸損失準備金增加了約 22%，其中包括約 8 億美元的績效準備金。

We are well positioned to fund our growth agenda in 2025 and beyond.

我們完全有能力為 2025 年及以後的成長議程提供資金。

Turning to our business line results and fiscal 2025 priorities.

轉向我們的業務線業績和 2025 財年優先事項。

Our wealth business had a very strong finish to the year, delivering net income of $426 million this quarter and record annual earnings of $1.6 billion in 2024 as well as continued ROE expansion to 15.7%.

我們的財富業務在今年取得了非常強勁的成績，本季實現淨利潤 4.26 億美元，到 2024 年實現創紀錄的年收益 16 億美元，淨資產收益率持續擴大至 15.7%。

Our Canadian wealth management business delivered double-digit earnings growth led by a 25% increase in ScotiaMcLeod which is a strong source of recurring fee-based earnings as well as 15% growth from the private bank.

我們的加拿大財富管理業務實現了兩位數的獲利成長，其中豐業麥克勞德 (ScotiaMcLeod) 成長了 25%，該公司是經常性收費收入的重要來源，私人銀行也實現了 15% 的成長。

We continue to invest in developing talent as well as adding established teams to our ScotiaMcLeod, MD Financial, and Private Investment Counsel advice channels.

我們繼續投資於人才培養，並在 ScotiaMcLeod、MD Financial 和私人投資顧問諮詢管道中增加現有團隊。

Our wealth management business in Canada reached an all-time high in client satisfaction scores and delivered 30% more financial plans.

我們在加拿大的財富管理業務的客戶滿意度得分達到歷史最高水平，交付的財務計劃增加了 30%。

We saw growth in our asset management business as overall assets under management grew to over $370 billion, up 18% this year.

我們的資產管理業務取得了成長，管理的總資產成長至超過 3,700 億美元，今年成長了 18%。

Importantly, we have seen a strong rebound in fund sales with a particular focus on distribution through our own bank channel.

重要的是，我們看到基金銷售強勁反彈，特別是透過我們自己的銀行管道進行分銷。

Gross retail mutual fund sales increased 54% on a year-over-year basis with strong momentum expected in 2025.

零售共同基金銷售總額年增 54%，預估 2025 年動能強勁。

Growth in our international wealth business is very strategic for us in terms of delivering highly ROE accretive growth.

我們的國際財富業務的成長對於我們實現高淨資產收益率成長而言非常具有戰略意義。

International wealth earnings were a record $261 million in 2024, up 17% year over year.

2024 年，國際財富收入達到創紀錄的 2.61 億美元，較去年同期成長 17%。

Our Canadian Bank delivered solid revenue-led earnings growth of 7% in a year of modest loan growth and higher loan losses as the realities of a slowing economy and the impact of peak interest rates made for a challenging operating environment.

在貸款成長溫和、貸款損失增加的一年裡，我們的加拿大銀行以收入為主導的利潤增長了 7%，這是由於經濟放緩的現實和利率高峰的影響造成了充滿挑戰的經營環境。

Expense discipline in the Canadian Bank contributed to positive operating leverage for the year and deposit growth outpaced loan growth.

加拿大銀行的支出紀律有助於今年實現積極的營運槓桿，存款成長超過貸款成長。

Segments where we saw asset growth include commercial, small business, and credit cards through focused initiatives like Scene+ and Mortgage+, which target more deeper, solutions-based relationships with our clients.

我們看到資產成長的細分市場包括商業、小型企業和信用卡，透過 Scene+ 和 Mortgage+ 等重點計劃，這些計劃的目標是與客戶建立更深入、基於解決方案的關係。

Primary client growth, diversification of our portfolio mix and growth in our fee income remain high priorities for fiscal '25 as stronger profitability in our domestic P&C business is essential to achieving our financial objectives.

主要客戶的成長、投資組合的多元化以及費用收入的成長仍然是 25 財年的首要任務，因為我們國內財產險業務更強的獲利能力對於實現我們的財務目標至關重要。

Looking ahead, we have initiatives in place to accelerate primacy, including focusing on core day-to-day retail deposits and deepening relationships through personalized value propositions and marketing programs.

展望未來，我們採取了一些舉措來加速領先地位，包括專注於核心日常零售存款以及透過個人化價值主張和行銷計劃加深關係。

Optimizing assets like Scene+, which in our view, remains a very large and underexploited opportunity for us to deepen primary data-rich relationships.

優化像 Scene+ 這樣的資產，在我們看來，對於我們深化主要數據豐富的關係來說，這仍然是一個非常大且尚未充分利用的機會。

Scene+ membership continues to expand rapidly with over 15 million members is on pace for record point issuance.

Scene+ 會員數持續快速成長，會員數已超過 1,500 萬，積分發行量可望創歷史新高。

Over 37% of Scene+ members have a Scotiabank relationship and we believe further penetration of the Scene+ member base can meaningfully contribute to our primacy objectives.

超過 37% 的 Scene+ 會員與豐業銀行有關係，我們相信進一步滲透 Scene+ 會員群可以為我們的首要目標做出有意義的貢獻。

We are also delivering on our Canadian real estate secured lending strategic repositioning.

我們也正在實施加拿大房地產擔保貸款策略重新定位。

Our Mortgage+ offering, a customizable offering with an everyday account, preferred mortgage rate and other retail products continues to drive strong growth and primary relationships with penetration of greater than 75% among our new mortgage originations in 2024.

我們的 Mortgage+ 產品是一種可客製化的日常帳戶產品、首選抵押貸款利率和其他零售產品，繼續推動強勁成長和主要關係，到 2024 年，我們的新抵押貸款發放中的滲透率將超過 75%。

The early results of these initiatives suggest improved relationship depth with our clients.

這些措施的早期結果顯示我們與客戶的關係深度得到了改善。

The number of clients holding three or more products with us increased to 46%, up 2 points from last year, and our annual client attrition rate was lower by 40 basis points. 44% of our clients with term deposits are now primary clients, which is up 4.4 points this year.

持有三種或以上產品的客戶數量增加至46%，比去年上升2個百分點，年度客戶流失率降低40個基點。目前，我們的定期存款客戶中有 44% 是主要客戶，這一比例今年上升了 4.4 個百分點。

Importantly, 85% of clients with term deposits renewals this year stayed with the bank as a direct renewal or redeployment to investments or other products.

重要的是，今年續存定期存款的客戶中有 85% 留在銀行，直接續存或重新部署到投資或其他產品。

We continue our positive momentum in Tangerine.

我們繼續保持 Tangerine 的積極勢頭。

Net primary client growth of 19% year over year with our new acquisition offers driving 2 times higher payroll penetration.

我們新收購的產品將薪資滲透率提高了 2 倍，主要客戶淨成長率年增 19%。

Sales through the mobile channel reached a record high at the end of 2024 at 49% which is an increase of 7 full percentage points year over year.

2024 年底，行動通路銷售額創下歷史新高，達 49%，年增整整 7 個百分點。

Turning to our international banking business.

轉向我們的國際銀行業務。

Considering the portfolio repositioning and capital reallocation activity, we were pleased with the performance of this business, which delivered solid 7% year over year earnings growth.

考慮到投資組合重新定位和資本重新分配活動，我們對該業務的表現感到滿意，該業務實現了 7% 的同比盈利增長。

We meaningfully reduced our overall capital deployed to the region in line with our capital optimization strategy as risk weighted assets in the international business were lower by 6% or over $9 billion in 2024.

我們根據我們的資本優化策略，有意義地減少了部署到該地區的總體資本，因為國際業務的風險加權資產到 2024 年下降了 6%，超過 90 億美元。

Importantly, we saw margin expansion throughout the year to 442 basis points and an improvement in risk-adjusted margins to over 325 basis points.

重要的是，我們看到全年利潤率擴張至 442 個基點，風險調整後利潤率改善至超過 325 個基點。

The international banking productivity ratio improved over 200 basis points to 50.9% on the path to our objective of 45% over the medium term as we realize the benefits of a more regional operating model.

隨著我們認識到更區域化的營運模式的好處，國際銀行業生產力提高了 200 個基點，達到 50.9%，朝著中期內 45% 的目標邁進。

Operating leverage was an impressive 5% for the full year.

全年營運槓桿率為 5%，令人印象深刻。

Fiscal 2024 return on equity in international banking improved to 14.4% from 13.1% the year prior.

2024 財年國際銀行業的股本回報率從前一年的 13.1% 提高至 14.4%。

We will remain focused on deploying capital prudently to improve the profitability of this segment over the medium term as communicated at our Investor Day.

正如投資者日所傳達的那樣，我們將繼續專注於審慎地部署資本，以提高該部門的中期獲利能力。

In global banking and markets, our results this year reflect the impact of continued balance sheet optimization as we redeploy capital and resources into the product and client segments where we envision more optimal returns over time.

在全球銀行業和市場中，我們今年的業績反映了持續資產負債表優化的影響，因為我們將資本和資源重新部署到產品和客戶群中，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這些產品和客戶群將獲得更佳的回報。

Fiscal 2024 earnings of $1.7 billion were a modest 5% below last year or up 9% excluding the substantial impact of the elimination of the Canadian dividend received tax deduction.

2024 財年收益為 17 億加元，比去年小幅下降 5%，若不考慮取消加拿大股息所得稅減免的重大影響，則增長 9%。

Our GBM loan balances are lower year over year, the result of lower utilization rates as corporate clients paid down bank lines from free cash flow and finance in the capital markets given the more constructive market environment.

我們的 GBM 貸款餘額年減，這是由於企業客戶在更具建設性的市場環境下透過資本市場的自由現金流和融資支付了銀行額度，從而導致利用率較低。

Our underwriting and advisory fees increased by 27%, suggesting franchise growth and the benefits of our balance sheet optimization efforts and product capability builds.

我們的承保和諮詢費用增加了 27%，這表明特許經營權的增長以及我們的資產負債表優化工作和產品能力建設的好處。

We have added specialized teams within the CLO, private credit and mortgage capital markets businesses to participate in higher capital velocity segments of the US structured credit markets.

我們在 CLO、私人信貸和抵押資本市場業務中增加了專業團隊，以參與美國結構性信貸市場的較高資本週轉率領域。

Enhancing our cash management capabilities is essential to growing our share of primacy with commercial, corporate and multinational clients.

增強我們的現金管理能力對於提高我們在商業、企業和跨國客戶中的主導地位至關重要。

In 2024, we continue to invest in talent, products and client servicing including in our cash management portal, ScotiaConnect.

2024 年，我們將繼續投資於人才、產品和客戶服務，包括我們的現金管理入口網站 ScotiaConnect。

Our investment in enhancing our cash management capabilities, including in the United States will allow us to better support clients throughout the North American corridor.

我們在增強現金管理能力（包括在美國）方面的投資將使我們能夠更好地支援整個北美走廊的客戶。

In summary, while I am pleased with our financial results in 2024, which demonstrate progress against our strategy, they also reflect our transformation as an organization and the significant work ahead of us in the coming years to increase returns for our shareholders.

總之，雖然我對2024 年的財務表現感到滿意，這表明我們在策略方面取得了進展，但它們也反映了我們作為一個組織的轉型以及我們在未來幾年為增加股東回報而要做的重要工作。

Looking ahead, the economies in which we are operating in are also in transition from both an economic and geopolitical point of view.

展望未來，從經濟和地緣政治的角度來看，我們所在的經濟體也正在轉型。

The Bank of Canada's policy rate action in recent months should lead to a rebound in economic activity next year.

加拿大央行近幾個月的政策利率行動應該會導致明年經濟活動反彈。

We anticipate additional easing through the first half of the year which we expect will be stimulative to activity in the domestic housing and mortgage markets and buoy consumer and business confidence after a period of relative restraint.

我們預計今年上半年將推出更多寬鬆政策，這將刺激國內住房和抵押貸款市場的活動，並在經歷了一段相對克制的時期後提振消費者和企業信心。

We are closely monitoring policy actions from the new administration in Mexico as well as the incoming US administration.

我們正在密切關注墨西哥新政府以及即將上任的美國政府的政策行動。

While new governments often bring initial uncertainty with respect to trade policies, we believe policy will ultimately support a cooperative environment that encourages capital investment and continued regional growth.

雖然新政府往往會在貿易政策方面帶來最初的不確定性，但我們相信政策最終將支持鼓勵資本投資和持續區域成長的合作環境。

We continue to believe in the long-term economic growth potential of the North American corridor and the strategic value that connectivity among Canada, the US and Mexico will provide to our clients and to the long-term success of the bank.

我們仍然相信北美走廊的長期經濟成長潛力，以及加拿大、美國和墨西哥之間的互聯互通將為我們的客戶和銀行的長期成功帶來的戰略價值。

Central Banks in Latin America are well along on the easing path to stabilize interest rates, but the pace of interest rate cuts has slowed from first half of 2024 expectations.

拉丁美洲各國央行在穩定利率的寬鬆道路上進展順利，但降息步伐較 2024 年上半年的預期有所放緩。

Growth is expected to remain more modest than previously forecasted in our larger markets with less certainty on near-term growth, particularly in Mexico through the period of presidential transition.

預計我們較大市場的成長將比先前預測的更為溫和，短期成長的確定性較低，特別是在墨西哥總統過渡期間。

As we navigate this period of uncertainty, we will be thoughtful with our capital allocation into the country.

當我們度過這段不確定的時期時，我們將仔細考慮我們在該國的資本配置。

I would now like to draw your attention to our enhanced disclosure, which provides performance updates against critical strategic metrics shared last year at our Investor Day.

現在我想提請您注意我們增強的披露，其中根據去年在投資者日分享的關鍵策略指標提供了業績更新。

These select metrics are representative of the many underlying strategic and operating metrics being monitored and measured.

這些選定的指標代表了正在監控和測量的許多基礎策略和營運指標。

Progress in primary client growth, deposits, digital delivery, enterprise-wide cross-sell and growth in fee income will position us well to achieve our financial goals.

主要客戶成長、存款、數位交付、企業範圍內的交叉銷售和費用收入成長的進展將使我們能夠很好地實現我們的財務目標。

Reflecting on the first year of performance we shared in our Investor Day five-year plan, we are confident in and committed to delivering against our stated medium-term financial objectives.

回顧我們在投資者日五年計畫中分享的第一年的業績，我們對實現我們既定的中期財務目標充滿信心並致力於實現。

Progress towards achieving 14% plus return on equity within our five-year strategy period.

在我們的五年策略期內實現 14% 以上的股本回報率。

A commitment to ongoing positive operating leverage and operating with Tier 1 capital levels with a sufficient buffer above regulatory minimums.

致力於持續積極的營運槓桿，並以一級資本水平運營，並具有高於監管最低限度的足夠緩衝。

Our earnings expectations have not changed.

我們的獲利預期沒有改變。

We continue to expect earnings growth between 5% and 7% in 2025, prior to incorporating any benefit from our minority investment in KeyCorp.

在納入我們對 KeyCorp 少數股權投資的任何收益之前，我們仍預期 2025 年的獲利成長在 5% 至 7% 之間。

In summary, I am pleased with the progress we have made in our first year of delivery against our strategy.

總之，我對我們在實施策略的第一年所取得的進展感到滿意。

We remain focused on disciplined capital allocation and execution, primary client growth, improving productivity and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

我們仍然專注於嚴格的資本配置和執行、主要客戶成長、提高生產力和維持強勁的資產負債表。

Our teams are rallied behind our strategy, execution and commitments and are living our core values and key behaviors as part of our cultural transformation to drive high performance and support the execution of our strategy.

我們的團隊團結起來支持我們的策略、執行和承諾，並實踐我們的核心價值和關鍵行為，作為我們文化轉型的一部分，以推動高績效並支持我們策略的執行。

Importantly, starting this fall, we rolled out ScotiaBond, our new culture framework, which includes refreshed values and behaviors that will help drive our strategy forward.

重要的是，從今年秋天開始，我們推出了新的文化框架 ScotiaBond，其中包括有助於推動我們策略向前發展的更新的價值觀和行為。

Our updated performance management metrics go beyond measuring results and evaluate how in terms of the leadership behaviors that we believe lead to great outcomes.

我們更新的績效管理指標不僅限於衡量結果，還評估我們認為如何帶來巨大成果的領導行為。

This new framework is being embedded in all aspects of our organization from goal setting to how we reward performance and recognize our culture catalysts throughout the bank.

這個新框架正在嵌入我們組織的各個方面，從目標設定到我們如何獎勵績效以及認可整個銀行的文化催化劑。

I would like to thank our global team of Scotiabankers for their support and commitment to the bank and to our clients this year.

我要感謝我們的豐業銀行家全球團隊今年對銀行和我們客戶的支持和承諾。

Our momentum is a result of their efforts to deliver on our shared vision and collective objectives.

我們的動力源自於他們為實現我們的共同願景和集體目標所做的努力。

I will now turn it over to Raj for a more detailed financial review of the quarter.

我現在將把它交給 Raj，以對該季度進行更詳細的財務審查。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。

This quarter's net income was impacted by $430 million of after-tax adjusting items or $0.35 of earnings per share and approximately 5 basis points on the common equity Tier 1 ratio.

本季的淨利潤受到 4.3 億美元的稅後調整項目或 0.35 美元的每股收益以及普通股一級比率約 5 個基點的影響。

This consisted of a $379 million after-tax impairment charge related to the write-down of our investment in Bank of Xi'an and certain intangible assets, including software, and after-tax severance provisions of approximately $38 million, both recorded in the other segment.

其中包括與我們對西安銀行的投資和某些無形資產（包括軟體）的減記相關的3.79 億美元稅後減損費用，以及約3,800 萬美元的稅後遣散費，兩者均記錄在另一項資產中。

The Q4 results also reflect our usual adjustment for amortization of acquisition-related intangibles.

第四季度的業績也反映了我們對收購相關無形資產攤銷的常見調整。

All my comments to follow will be on an adjusted basis.

我接下來的所有評論都將經過調整。

Starting on slide 6 for a review of the fiscal 2024 results.

從投影片 6 開始回顧 2024 財年的表現。

The bank ended the year with an adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.47, a return on equity of 11.3% and return on tangible common equity of 13.7%.

該銀行年底調整後稀釋每股收益為 6.47 美元，股本回報率為 11.3%，有形普通股回報率為 13.7%。

The revenue was up 6% year over year, while expenses grew 4%, resulting in

營收年增6%，費用成長4%，導致

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

We are currently experiencing technical difficulties.

我們目前遇到技術困難。

The conference will resume momentarily.

會議將暫時恢復。

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Okay.

好的。

I'm going to continue from T-- starting on slide 6 for a review of the fiscal 2024 results.

我將從投影片 6 開始繼續回顧 2024 財年的表現。

The bank ended the year with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.47, a return on equity of 11.3%, and return on tangible common equity of 13.7%.

該銀行年底調整後稀釋每股收益為 6.47 美元，股本回報率為 11.3%，有形普通股回報率為 13.7%。

Revenue was up 6% year over year and expenses grew 4%, resulting in positive operating leverage of 2.3% for the year.

營收年增 6%，支出成長 4%，全年營運槓桿率為 2.3%。

Notably, fee and commission revenue was up 5%.

值得注意的是，手續費及佣金收入增加了 5%。

The provision for credit losses were $4.1 billion in 2024, $629 million higher, driven by higher impaired PCLs.

由於 PCL 受損程度較高，2024 年信貸損失準備金為 41 億美元，增加了 6.29 億美元。

Phil will speak to this later.

菲爾稍後會談到這一點。

Canadian banking earnings were $4.3 billion, up $290 million or 7%.

加拿大銀行業獲利為 43 億加元，增加 2.9 億加元，即 7%。

Revenue grew 7%, driven by deposit growth and margin expansion partly offset by higher expenses and PCLs.

營收成長 7%，主要受到存款成長和利潤率擴張的推動，但部分被較高的費用和 PCL 所抵消。

The business generated positive operating leverage and achieved a return on equity of 20.8%.

該業務產生了正的營運槓桿，並實現了 20.8% 的股本回報率。

International banking earnings were $2.7 billion, up 10% year over year.

國際銀行業務獲利為 27 億美元，年增 10%。

Revenues were up a strong 9% or approximately $950 million while expenses were up only 4%, resulting in positive operating leverage of 5%.

營收強勁成長 9%，約 9.5 億美元，而支出僅成長 4%，營運槓桿率為 5%。

Global wealth management earnings of $1.6 billion were up 10% year over year, benefiting from strong assets under management growth of 18%.

全球財富管理收益達 16 億美元，年增 10%，受益於管理資產 18% 的強勁成長。

Revenues were up 9%, driven by higher fee revenue and net interest income across the Canadian and international wealth businesses.

由於加拿大和國際財富業務的費用收入和淨利息收入增加，收入增加了 9%。

Global banking and markets reported earnings of $1.7 billion, down 5%, impacted by the denial of dividend received deduction.

全球銀行業和市場報告獲利 17 億美元，下降 5%，受到股息收入扣除被拒絕的影響。

Excluding this, the earnings grew 9% during the year while optimizing risk-weighted asset growth.

排除此因素，年內獲利成長 9%，同時優化風險加權資產成長。

The other segment reported a loss of $1.8 billion compared to a loss of $1.4 billion in 2023.

其他部門報告虧損 18 億美元，而 2023 年虧損 14 億美元。

The high loss was due to lower revenues, primarily from increased funding costs and higher taxes, partially offset by lower expenses.

高虧損是由於收入減少造成的，主要是由於融資成本增加和稅收增加，但部分被費用減少所抵消。

Now a few comments on the outlook for 2025. 2025 earnings growth is expected to be within the range of 5% to 7% in line with the Investor Day outlook.

現在對 2025 年的前景進行一些評論。

This does not include any earnings pickup benefits if the second stage of the KeyCorp investment were to be approved during fiscal 2025.

如果 KeyCorp 投資的第二階段在 2025 財年獲得批准，這不包括任何收益提升收益。

Revenues are expected to benefit from strong net interest income growth driven by lower funding costs and growth in loans and deposits.

預計收入將受益於融資成本下降以及貸款和存款成長推動的強勁淨利息收入成長。

Earnings are expected to be impacted by a higher tax rate of between 23% and 24%, driven by the implementation of the global minimum tax of 15% and a reduction in the inflation benefit in certain international banking markets as well as higher provision for credit losses.

由於全球最低稅率15%的實施、某些國際銀行市場通膨收益的減少以及信貸撥備的增加，預計盈利將受到23%至24%的較高稅率的影響損失。

Expense growth is expected to be modest as investments in strategic initiatives are partly offset by productivity benefits, resulting in positive operating leverage for the year.

預計支出成長將溫和，因為策略舉措的投資部分被生產力收益所抵消，從而導致今年的營運槓桿為正值。

The bank remains committed to maintaining strong capital and liquidity positions in 2025.

該銀行仍致力於在 2025 年保持強勁的資本和流動性部位。

From a business line perspective, we expect strong earnings growth in global wealth management and solid growth in Canadian banking and GBM.

從業務線的角度來看，我們預期全球財富管理業務的獲利將強勁成長，加拿大銀行業和 GBM 業務將穩定成長。

International banking earnings are expected to be lower, in line with our Investor Day presentation, impacted by weaker LatanAmerican currencies, slow growth economies and a higher tax rate.

根據我們投資者日的介紹，受拉丁美洲貨幣疲軟、經濟成長緩慢和稅率上升的影響，國際銀行業獲利預計將下降。

The other segment losses are expected to improve as net interest income continues to benefit as we saw this quarter from the 2024 rate cuts and further rate cuts expected in the first half of fiscal 2025.

隨著淨利息收入繼續受益，其他部門的虧損預計將有所改善，因為我們在本季度看到了 2024 年降息以及預計 2025 財年上半年的進一步降息。

Moving to slide 8 for a review of the fourth quarter.

轉到投影片 8 回顧第四季。

The bank reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.1 billion and a diluted EPS of $1.57. Return on equity was 10.6% and return on tangible common equity was 12.8%.

該銀行報告季度調整後收益為 21 億美元，攤薄後每股收益為 1.57 美元。股本回報率為 10.6%，有形普通股回報率為 12.8%。

Net interest income was $4.9 billion, up 6% year over year and 1% quarter over quarter.

淨利息收入為 49 億美元，年增 6%，季增 1%。

Year-over-year NII growth was driven primarily by loan growth.

NII 年成長主要由貸款成長推動。

Quarter over quarter, net interest income grew in Canadian banking and the other segment, while it declined in GBM impacted by a 7% decline in loan balances.

加拿大銀行業和其他部門的淨利息收入環比增長，而 GBM 的淨利息收入則因貸款餘額下降 7% 的影響而下降。

International Banking net interest income decline was impacted by the weaker Latin American currencies.

國際銀行業務淨利息收入下降受到拉丁美洲貨幣疲軟的影響。

Net interest margin grew 1 basis point quarter over quarter, mostly from lower funding costs, partly offset by lower margins in Canadian banking and lower levels of higher-yielding international banking loans.

淨利差較上季成長 1 個基點，主要是由於融資成本下降，部分被加拿大銀行業利潤率下降和高收益國際銀行貸款水準下降所抵銷。

Deposits were up 2% year over year, mostly in term while loans were down 2% year over year, mainly in corporate, P&C deposits were up 6% year over year.

存款年增 2%，主要是定期貸款，貸款年減 2%，主要是企業存款，財產保險存款年增 6%。

Non-interest income was $3.6 billion, up 11% year over year, mainly due to higher trading revenues, wealth management revenues and other fees and commissions.

非利息收入為36億美元，年增11%，主要是由於交易收入、理財收入及其他費用及佣金增加。

These were partly offset by lower fees related to the conversion of bankers' acceptances to loans due to the cessation of CDOR.

由於 CDOR 的停止，銀行承兌匯票轉換為貸款的相關費用降低，部分抵銷了這些費用。

The provision for credit losses were $1 billion, down $22 million quarter over quarter.

信貸損失撥備為 10 億美元，季減 2,200 萬美元。

The PCL ratio was 54 basis points this quarter.

本季 PCL 比率為 54 個基點。

Year over year expenses were up a modest 1% driven by higher performance-based compensation and technology-related costs, partly by the favorable impact of foreign currency and lower communication costs.

由於基於績效的薪酬和技術相關成本提高，部分原因是外匯和通訊成本降低的有利影響，費用較去年小幅增加 1%。

The productivity ratio was 56.1% this quarter, an improvement of 360 basis points year-over-year.

本季生產力為56.1%，年增360個基點。

The effective tax rate was approximately 22% this quarter compared to 15% per year ago and 18.6% last quarter, driven by lower tax exempt income, prior year taxes and lower income in lower tax jurisdictions.

本季的有效稅率約為 22%，而去年同期為 15%，上季為 18.6%，這是由於免稅收入、上一年稅款減少以及低稅收管轄區收入減少的推動。

Moving to slide 9.

轉到投影片 9。

The bank's CET1 capital ratio was 13.1%, a decrease of 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter and an increase of 10 basis points year over year.

該行CET1資本率為13.1%，季減20個基點，較去年同期上升10個基點。

Earnings less dividends contributed 13 basis points to CET1 and the DRIP contributed 11 basis points.

扣除股利的獲利為 CET1 貢獻了 13 個基點，DRIP 貢獻了 11 個基點。

As a reminder, this quarter was the last dividend eligible for the DRIP discount.

提醒一下，本季是最後一次有資格享受 DRIP 折扣的股息。

This was offset by 27 basis points from the $10 billion RWA growth, 8 basis points from the closing of the initial KeyCorp investments, 5 basis points from the write-down of our investment in Bank of Xi'an and 9 basis points from other items, mostly relating to foreign exchange.

這被 100 億美元 RWA 成長抵消了 27 個基點、KeyCorp 初始投資結束時抵消了 8 個基點、我們對西安銀行投資的減記抵消了 5 個基點，以及其他項目抵消了 9 個基點，主要與外匯有關。

The $10 billion increase in risk-weighted assets was driven primarily by book quality changes from correlation changes and PD/LGD parameter recalibration that increased our RESL and corporate commercial loan books RWA density.

風險加權資產增加 100 億美元，主要是由於相關性變化和 PD/LGD 參數重新校準帶來的帳面品質變化，這增加了我們的 RESL 和企業商業貸款帳面 RWA 密度。

Turning now to the business line results, beginning on Slide 10.

現在轉向業務線結果，從投影片 10 開始。

The Canadian Banking reported results of $1.1 billion an increase of 34% year over year, driven by lower PCLs and higher revenue.

加拿大銀行業公佈的業績為 11 億加元，年增 34%，這主要得益於 PCL 下降和收入增加。

The business generated positive operating leverage of 2.6%.

該業務產生了 2.6% 的正營運槓桿。

Average loans and acceptances were up 1% quarter-over-quarter and up 2% compared to the prior year.

平均貸款和承兌匯票較上年成長 1%，較上年增加 2%。

Business loans grew 6% year over year.

商業貸款較去年同期成長6%。

Credit card balances grew 12% while personal loans and residential mortgage balances wereeach up 1%.

信用卡餘額增加 12%，個人貸款和住宅抵押貸款餘額各增加 1%。

We continue to see deposit growth as year-over-year deposits grew 7%, driven by nonpersonal deposits growing 11% primarily in demand accounts and personal deposits growing 5%, primarily in term.

我們繼續看到存款成長，存款年增 7%，主要是活期帳戶的非個人存款成長 11%，個人存款主要是定期存款增加 5%。

Net interest income increased 9% year over year from asset and deposit growth and the benefit from BAs converting to loans.

淨利息收入年增 9%，得益於資產和存款的成長以及銀行轉貸的收益。

Net interest margin was flat year over year at 247 basis points as higher loan margins offset lower deposit margins.

由於較高的貸款利差抵消了較低的存款利差，淨利差同比持平，為 247 個基點。

The margin was down 5 basis points quarter over quarter driven by changes in business mix and lower deposit margins.

由於業務結構變化和存款利差下降，利潤率較上季下降 5 個基點。

Non-interest income was down 9% year over year, primarily due to lower banking fees including the impact of BA conversion and the sale of the bank's equity interest in Canadian Tire Financial Services last year, partly offset by higher mutual fund fees.

非利息收入年減 9%，主要是由於銀行費用降低，包括去年 BA 轉換和銀行出售加拿大輪胎金融服務公司股權的影響，但部分被共同基金費用上漲所抵銷。

The PCL ratio was 40 basis points, up 1 basis point quarter over quarter.

PCL比率為40個基點，較上季上升1個基點。

Expenses were up 4% year-over-year, primarily due to higher technology, professional and advertising costs.

費用年增 4%，主要是由於技術、專業和廣告成本增加。

Quarter-over-quarter expenses were up 3%, primarily from higher advertising and business development costs to support the bank's strategy and to drive business growth.

費用較上季成長 3%，主要是由於為支援銀行策略並推動業務成長而增加的廣告和業務開發成本。

Turning now to global wealth management on slide 11.

現在轉向幻燈片 11 上的全球財富管理。

Earnings of $426 million were up 28% year-over-year as Canadian earnings were up 30% year over year.

營收為 4.26 億加元，年增 28%，其中加拿大營收年增 30%。

Quarter-over-quarter earnings were up 3%, primarily from higher mutual fund fees partly offset by higher volume-related expenses.

季度收益成長 3%，主要是由於共同基金費用增加，但部分被交易量相關費用增加所抵銷。

Revenues were up 13% year-over-year, driven by higher mutual fund fees and brokerage revenues across the Canadian and International Wealth businesses.

由於加拿大和國際財富業務的共同基金費用和經紀收入增加，營收年增 13%。

The expenses were up 6% year over year, due primarily to higher volume-related costs.

費用年增 6%，主要是由於與銷售相關的成本增加。

The spot assets under management increased 18% year over year to $373 billion as market appreciation was partly offset by net redemptions.

由於市場升值被淨贖回部分抵消，管理的現貨資產年增 18% 至 3,730 億美元。

Assets under administration grew 15% over the same period to over $700 billion from higher net sales and market appreciation.

由於更高的淨銷售額和市場升值，管理資產在同一時期成長了 15%，達到 7,000 億美元以上。

International wealth management generated earnings of $63 million, up 21% year-over-year as asset management, trust and the brokerage business delivered strong double-digit growth.

國際財富管理業務獲利6,300萬美元，年增21%，資產管理、信託和經紀業務實現兩位數強勁成長。

Turning to slide 12, global banking and markets.

轉向投影片 12，全球銀行業和市場。

Global banking and markets generated earnings of $403 million, down 3% year over year.

全球銀行業和市場獲利 4.03 億美元，較去年同期下降 3%。

Capital markets revenue was up 7% year over year, primarily from higher FICC revenues, partly offset by lower equities.

資本市場收入年增 7%，主要來自 FICC 收入增加，但部分被股票下跌所抵銷。

Quarter over quarter, capital markets revenue was up 6% from higher FICC revenues.

由於 FICC 收入增加，資本市場收入較上季成長 6%。

Business banking revenues were down 4% year over year and 3% quarter over quarter.

商業銀行營收年減 4%，季減 3%。

Corporate and investment banking revenues were down compared to the prior quarter, partly offset by higher global transaction banking revenues.

企業和投資銀行業務收入較上一季下降，但部分被全球交易銀行業務收入成長所抵銷。

Loans and acceptances were down 18% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter to $101 billion, reflecting market conditions and continued balance sheet optimization.

貸款和承兌匯票年減 18%，環比下降 7%，至 1,010 億美元，反映了市場狀況和持續的資產負債表優化。

The business is focused on reducing unprofitable less stable deposits that was down $2 billion quarter over quarter on a spot basis.

該業務的重點是減少無利可圖且不穩定的存款，按現貨計算，該存款季度環比減少了 20 億美元。

Net interest income decreased 1% year over year primarily due to lower corporate lending and deposit volumes.

淨利息收入較去年同期下降 1%，主要是因為企業貸款和存款量下降。

Non-interest income was up 4% year over year due to higher fee income, mostly underwriting and advisory fees and stronger trading-related revenues.

由於費用收入（主要是承銷和諮詢費）增加以及交易相關收入增加，非利息收入年增 4%。

The business is focused on reducing its reliance on lending revenue and growing fee revenue, a trend that was evident this quarter.

該業務的重點是減少對貸款收入的依賴和增加費用收入，這一趨勢在本季很明顯。

Expenses were up 6% year over year due mainly to an increase in personnel and technology costs to support business growth and the negative impact of foreign currency.

費用年增6%，主要是因為支持業務成長的人員和技術成本增加以及外匯的負面影響。

Quarter-over-quarter expenses were up 3%, largely driven by higher personnel and technology costs.

季度開支增長 3%，主要是由於人員和技術成本上升。

The US business generated earnings of $217 million, down 5% year over year driven by lower corporate and investment banking earnings, partly from RWA optimization efforts, offset by higher capital markets revenue.

美國業務的獲利為 2.17 億美元，年減 5%，原因是企業和投資銀行獲利下降，部分原因是 RWA 優化工作，但被資本市場收入增加所抵銷。

GBM Latin America, which is reported as part of international banking, reported earnings of $264 million, up 5% compared to the prior year but down 7% compared to the prior quarter.

據報道，GBM拉丁美洲是國際銀行業務的一部分，報告收入為2.64億美元，比上年增長5%，但比上一季下降7%。

Moving to slide 13 for a review of international banking.

前往投影片 13，回顧一下國際銀行業務。

My comments that follow are on an adjusted and constant dollar basis.

我接下來的評論是在調整後且美元不變的基礎上做出的。

The segment delivered earnings of $634 million, up 18% year over year.

該部門獲利 6.34 億美元，年增 18%。

Quarter over quarter, on a reported FX basis, earnings declined 6%, primarily relating to a weaker Mexican peso and GBM Latin America earnings that was down 7% driven by lower client activity.

以報告的外匯匯率計算，收益環比下降 6%，主要與墨西哥比索疲軟有關，而 GBM 拉丁美洲收益因客戶活動減少而下降 7%。

Revenue was up 7% year over year as net interest income was up 5%, driven by margin expansion.

在利潤率擴張的推動下，營收年增 7%，淨利息收入成長 5%。

Net interest margin expanded 25 basis points year over year and was stable quarter over quarter at 442 basis points, driven by higher loan and deposit margins, offset by business mix changes.

淨利差年擴大 25 個基點，環比穩定在 442 個基點，主要得益於貸款和存款利潤率上升，但被業務組合變化所抵消。

Year over year, loans were down 2%, primarily in Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

貸款年減 2%，主要發生在巴西、秘魯和智利。

Total business loans declined 7%, partly offset by year-over-year growth of 5% in mortgages.

商業貸款總額下降 7%，部分被抵押貸款年增 5% 所抵銷。

Deposits were down 1% year over year, while personal deposits grew 1%, non-personal deposits declined 3% year over year.

存款較去年同期下降1%，其中個人存款成長1%，非個人存款較去年同期下降3%。

The provision for credit losses was $556 million, translating to 137 basis points, down 2 basis points quarter over quarter.

信貸損失撥備為 5.56 億美元，相當於 137 個基點，較上季下降 2 個基點。

The expenses were up a modest 1% year over year driven mainly from high salaries and benefits reflect international banking's focus on managing expense growth in a high inflationary environment.

費用年增 1%，主要是由於高工資和福利，反映出國際銀行業專注於高通膨環境下管理費用成長。

Quarter over quarter, expenses were flat.

與上一季相比，支出持平。

The fiscal 2024 operating leverage was a strong positive 5%.

2024 財年的營運槓桿率為 5%。

Turning to slide 14, the other segment.

轉到投影片 14，另一個部分。

The other segment reported adjusted net loss of $453 million compared to a loss of $465 million in the prior year.

其他部門報告調整後淨虧損為 4.53 億美元，而上一年為虧損 4.65 億美元。

Net interest before income and taxes improved $114 million quarter over quarter from higher revenues, primarily driven by lower funding cost benefiting from rate cuts.

由於收入增加，所得稅前淨利息季度環比增加了 1.14 億美元，這主要是由於降息帶來的融資成本降低。

This was largely offset by higher taxes from adjustments related to prior year taxes and a lower pretax loss.

這在很大程度上被上一年稅收調整帶來的較高稅收和較低的稅前損失所抵消。

We expect the improvements in net interest income to continue through '25 and into 2026 in this segment.

我們預計該領域淨利息收入的改善將持續到 2025 年直至 2026 年。

I'll now turn the call over to Phil to discuss risk.

我現在將把電話轉給菲爾討論風險。

Thank you, Raj.

謝謝你，拉傑。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

All bank PCLs were 54 basis points and the full year total PCL ratio was 53 basis points.

所有銀行 PCL 均為 54 個基點，全年總 PCL 比率為 53 個基點。

Looking forward to 2025, we expect our full year total PCL ratio to be in the mid-50s basis point range, remaining elevated in the first half of the year with some more positive trends towards the end of 2025.

展望 2025 年，我們預計全年總 PCL 比率將在 50 個基點左右，上半年保持較高水平，並在 2025 年底出現一些更積極的趨勢。

PCL performance throughout the year was driven by an uncertain macroeconomic environment that saw elevated unemployment levels and higher for longer interest rates.

PCL 全年的業績受到不確定的宏觀經濟環境的推動，失業率水準上升，長期利率也更高。

Looking at Q4 specifically, all bank PCLs of approximately $1 billion were down $22 million or 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by lower performing provisions in Canadian retail as recent rate cuts will lessen the payment shock experienced by a fixed rate mortgage clients at renewal, increased impairments in Canadian retail and one account in Canadian commercial.

具體來看第四季度，所有約10 億美元的銀行PCL 環比下降了2200 萬美元或1 個基點，這主要是由於加拿大零售業的準備金表現不佳，因為最近的降息將減輕固定利率抵押貸款所經歷的支付衝擊客戶續約、加拿大零售業減損增加以及加拿大商業業的一個帳戶。

Improved client performance across most of our international retail portfolios.

我們大多數國際零售投資組合的客戶績效都得到改善。

We remain comfortable with our ACL coverage at $6.7 billion or 88 basis points, down 1 basis point quarter over quarter.

我們對 ACL 覆蓋範圍仍感到滿意，為 67 億美元或 88 個基點，比上一季下降 1 個基點。

Over the last two years, we have built $800 million of performing allowances in anticipation of potential impacts from higher longer rate environment, and we are now seeing some migration as expected.

在過去的兩年裡，我們已經建立了 8 億美元的績效津貼，以應對更高的長期利率環境的潛在影響，現在我們看到了一些預期的遷移。

Turning to Canadian banking.

轉向加拿大銀行業。

PCLs were $450 million or 40 basis points, up 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter.

PCL 為 4.5 億美元，即 40 個基點，較上季成長 1 個基點。

Retail PCLs were down $10 million quarter over quarter, driven by lower performing allowances as recent rate cuts lessen renewal risk faced by our fixed rate mortgage clients.

由於最近的降息減少了我們固定利率抵押貸款客戶面臨的續約風險，零售 PCL 環比下降了 1,000 萬美元，這是由於績效津貼下降所致。

Impaired retail PCLs were up quarter-over-quarter as higher impairment was observed across most products but mainly driven by expected formations in mortgages and HELOCs.

由於大多數產品的減值較高，零售 PCL 減損環比上升，但主要是由抵押貸款和 HELOC 的預期形成所推動的。

Despite increased impairments, we are encouraged by mortgage tail risk remaining stable and comfortably below 1% of outstanding retail balances.

儘管減損增加，但抵押貸款尾部風險保持穩定且遠低於未償還零售餘額的 1%，這令我們感到鼓舞。

Furthermore, our mortgage clients' deposits have trended upwards for the second consecutive quarter after falling from pandemic highs.

此外，我們的抵押貸款客戶存款在從大流行高點下降後連續第二個季度呈上升趨勢。

Overall, we remain comfortable with our portfolios as they continue to perform as expected.

總體而言，我們對我們的投資組合仍然感到滿意，因為它們繼續按預期表現。

Moving to international banking.

轉向國際銀行業務。

PCLs were $556 million in Q4, resulting in a PCL ratio of 137 basis points, down 2 basis points quarter over quarter.

第四季 PCL 為 5.56 億美元，PCL 比率為 137 個基點，季減 2 個基點。

Retail PCLs improved $27 million quarter over quarter as Stage 3 improved in most markets.

隨著大多數市場第三階段的改善，零售 PCL 環比增長 2700 萬美元。

Performing retail PCLs were down $40 million, driven by lower delinquency, some migration to impaired and an improved macroeconomic outlook across our international markets.

由於拖欠率下降、部分資產受損以及國際市場宏觀經濟前景改善，業績良好的零售 PCL 減少了 4,000 萬美元。

We continue to monitor our portfolio closely, but we are encouraged by improved performance in our retail portfolio with overall 90-day delinquency declining quarter-over-quarter.

我們繼續密切監控我們的投資組合，但我們對零售投資組合的業績改善感到鼓舞，整體 90 天拖欠率逐季下降。

Looking at our international commercial portfolio.

看看我們的國際商業投資組合。

PCLs improved quarter over quarter, down $6 million.

PCL 環比有所改善，減少了 600 萬美元。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect our full year total PCL ratio to be in the mid-50s basis point range.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計全年總 PCL 比率將在 50 多個基點範圍內。

We expect it will remain slightly elevated in the first half of the year and trend positively through the end of 2025.

我們預計上半年該數字將保持小幅上升，並在 2025 年底之前呈現正面趨勢。

Our outlook is guided by clients continuing to manage the higher for longer rate environment, until expected benefits from lower interest rates work their way through client balance sheets and a mixed macroeconomic environment.

我們的展望是由客戶繼續管理長期較高的利率環境，直到較低利率的預期收益透過客戶資產負債表和混合的宏觀經濟環境發揮作用。

Across our markets, despite expected stabilization of inflation and unemployment.

儘管通膨和失業率預期穩定，但在我們的市場中。

We continue to monitor our portfolios closely given the macroeconomic uncertainty and remain mindful of potential geopolitical risk.

鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，我們將繼續密切監控我們的投資組合，並繼續關注潛在的地緣政治風險。

With that, I will pass the call back to John for Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給約翰進行問答。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Phil.

謝謝你，菲爾。

Operator, please queue the line for questions.

接線員，請排隊提問。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員指令）Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I guess maybe, Scott, going back to the summary you provided in terms of the strategic sort of execution around the turnaround.

我想也許，史考特，回到你在扭虧為盈的策略執行方面提供的總結。

I guess just big picture, if you look at top down, give us your comfort level as we think about the 5% to 7% earnings growth this year, what pushes you towards the higher end or maybe even above the higher end of that target given the macro backdrop that you are assuming in your forecast?

我想只是大局，如果你從上到下看，當我們考慮今年5% 到7% 的盈利增長時，請給我們你的舒適度，是什麼推動你走向更高的目標，甚至可能高於該目標的高端考慮到您在預測中假設的宏觀背景？

And as we think about the ROE improvement, 11.3% for full year, do we exit 2025 with something that's north of 13%?

當我們考慮 ROE 的改善（全年 11.3%）時，我們是否會在 2025 年結束時取得超過 13% 的成績？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Ebrahim.

謝謝，易卜拉欣。

As we look through '25 and then importantly, '26, I think we have a high level of confidence in the 5% to 7% in '25 and then frankly double digits in '26 and its earnings growth.

當我們回顧 25 年以及重要的 26 年時，我認為我們對 25 年的 5% 到 7% 以及坦率地說 26 年的兩位數及其盈利增長充滿信心。

And I think it's driven by a couple of factors.

我認為這是由幾個因素驅動的。

Obviously, if you look at the PTPP growth here, it's strong across all businesses.

顯然，如果你看看這裡的 PTPP 成長，你會發現所有業務的成長都很強勁。

And what could determine higher or lower on that 5% to 7% and then longer term is obviously the PCL outlook and Phil highlighted, we think it's going to get modestly better through the back half of the year, and that's an important assumption.

決定 5% 到 7% 以及更長期成長的因素顯然是 PCL 的前景，菲爾強調，我們認為今年下半年會略有好轉，這是一個重要的假設。

I think the second piece is just the rate environment.

我認為第二部分就是利率環境。

And as you know, we are well positioned for a declining rate environment.

如您所知，我們已為利率下降的環境做好了準備。

You're starting to see it was really nice to see in the fourth quarter, the $114 million improvement in the other segment, unfortunately, offset by the one-off tax.

您開始發現，第四季度的表現確實令人高興，不幸的是，其他部門的 1.14 億美元的成長被一次性稅收所抵消。

But you're going to see it in the first quarter come through, and you're going to see it accelerate through the back half of the year.

但你會看到它在第一季實現，並且你會看到它在今年下半年加速。

And so that is the underpinning of that 5% to 7% growth.

這就是 5% 到 7% 成長的基礎。

As I look to one year out, you also have the addition of Key, and we're hopeful that, that happens in the first quarter.

當我展望一年後，您還會添加 Key，我們希望這會在第一季發生。

That's a meaningful NII contributor, and that is a component of the double-digit growth into 2026 that we talked about.

這是一個有意義的 NII 貢獻者，也是我們談到的到 2026 年兩位數成長的一個組成部分。

The 5% to 7%, to be clear, does not include any contribution from Key in that '25 outlook.

需要明確的是，5% 至 7% 不包括 Key 在 25 年展望中的任何貢獻。

In terms of ROE expansion, I'm not going to give you a target, but that is the key metric that we're driving towards, right?

在股本回報率擴張方面，我不會給你一個目標，但這是我們正在努力實現的關鍵指標，對吧？

You can see the capital discipline.

你可以看到資本紀律。

You can see the cost discipline.

你可以看到成本紀律。

The operating leverage in the bank was really encouraging.

銀行的營運槓桿確實令人鼓舞。

I can feel that across all of the business lines is that they're really taking this cost discipline seriously.

我可以感覺到，在所有業務領域，他們都非常認真地對待這項成本紀律。

And then on the capital allocation to see us move capital among the bank into this North American corridor strategy was really encouraging.

然後在資本配置方面，看到我們將銀行之間的資本轉移到北美走廊策略中，這確實令人鼓舞。

And I called out international in my opening comments, but $9 billion reduction in RWA and record earnings growth in that business.

我在開場白中呼籲國際化，但 RWA 減少了 90 億美元，而該業務的盈利增長創紀錄。

Similarly, in GBM, we're optimizing that balance sheet as well.

同樣，在 GBM 中，我們也在優化資產負債表。

And those types of attributes are going to rise to or drive higher ROE in the enterprise.

這些類型的屬性將提升或推動企業更高的股本報酬率。

And the first instance of that is international.

第一個例子是國際性的。

We saw an international ROE uptick between '23 to '24 that was meaningful.

我們看到國際 ROE 在 23 年至 24 年間有所上升，這是有意義的。

So we'll continue to see that progress and that will lead to the 14% plus ROE we have in the five-year plan.

因此，我們將繼續看到這一進展，這將導致我們在五年計劃中實現 14% 以上的 ROE。

Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

加布里埃爾‧德鏈 (Gabriel Dechaine)，國家銀行金融部門。

Just want to ask about that international business a bit, both the -- I guess, the P&C component and then the GBM component.

只是想詢問一下國際業務，我猜是 P&C 部分，然後是 GBM 部分。

So loan balances have been declining both in the mortgages and the commercial side of things.

因此，抵押貸款和商業方面的貸款餘額都在下降。

And then GBM, up year over year, but the steady decline in GBM revenues and -- or earnings anyway over the course of the year from unusual peak in Q1.

然後，GBM 年成長，但 GBM 收入和利潤在這一年中從第一季的異常高峰穩步下降。

I'm just wondering, is this something that your outlook for international overall didn't sound too bullish and lower earnings next year.

我只是想知道，這是否表明您對國際整體的前景聽起來不太樂觀並且明年的收益較低。

I'm wondering if that's become more pessimistic or more cautious in the wake of what happened in the US election.

我想知道在美國大選發生之後，人們的情緒是變得更加悲觀還是更加謹慎。

Is there a reduced CapEx expectation or investment in some of these countries and factoring in the impact of dollarization and all that stuff.

其中一些國家的資本支出預期或投資是否會減少，並考慮美元化等因素的影響。

Just wondering if you can give an updated perspective.

只是想知道您是否可以提供更新的觀點。

Thank you for the question, Francisco here.

謝謝你的提問，弗朗西斯科。

Good morning everyone.

大家早安。

A couple of things.

有幾件事。

Let me try to tackle the question in two fronts.

讓我嘗試從兩個方面來解決這個問題。

One is what are we doing deliberately to improve our performance.

一是我們刻意做什麼來提升我們的績效。

And the other one is the environment that we expect will prevail in '25.

另一個是我們預計 25 年將盛行的環境。

We have been deliberately working on returns, and that has led to the reduction or reallocation of RWA out of [IB] earning opportunities.

我們一直在刻意致力於回報，這導致 RWA 從 [IB] 收入機會中減少或重新分配。

And that's the $9 million that Scott and Raj mentioned earlier in the call.

這就是斯科特和拉吉早些時候在電話中提到的 900 萬美元。

That has been a deliberate effort to improve our returns, and that has tackled both GBM, commercial banking as well as retail.

這是我們為提高回報所做的刻意努力，涉及 GBM、商業銀行和零售業。

That is an integral part of the transformation period that ends at the end of 2025, which we are very much on track to complete by the end of the next calendar year.

這是將於 2025 年底結束的轉型期的一個組成部分，我們很有希望在下一個日曆年年底之前完成這項轉型。

Now the environment around us is something we're adapting to.

現在我們周圍的環境是我們正在適應的。

And what we expect in 2025 is that Mexico, Chile and Peru, all economies will slower in '25 that they grew in '24.

我們預計，到 2025 年，墨西哥、智利和秘魯等所有經濟體在 25 年的成長速度將比 24 年的成長放緩。

We don't believe that it will be a massive slowdown, but it will be slower.

我們不認為經濟成長會大幅放緩，但速度會更慢。

For example, in the case of Mexico, we expect it to grow at 1% or less.

例如，就墨西哥而言，我們預計其成長率為 1% 或更低。

In the case of Peru, we expect it to grow maybe 0.2% less.

就秘魯而言，我們預計其成長率可能會減少 0.2%。

And in the case of Chile, also 0.2%, 0.3% less than DC. So that is an element that we need to adapt to, and we got to be very nimble in making sure that we continue to our productivity on the back of our regionalization efforts.

就智利而言，也是 0.2%，比華盛頓低 0.3%。因此，這是我們需要適應的一個因素，我們必須非常靈活，以確保我們在區域化努力的支持下繼續保持生產力。

So that path continues strong.

因此，這條道路將繼續保持強勁。

And as you see the expense performance this year, we see that continuing in 2025, preparing us to maximize returns in 2016 and beyond.

正如您看到今年的費用表現一樣，我們看到這種情況將在 2025 年持續下去，為我們在 2016 年及以後最大化回報做好準備。

So that's a little bit of how we're tackling these two avenues of deliberate work to improve returns while adapting to a potentially slower growth environment in '25 that should recoup in '26.

因此，這就是我們如何處理這兩種刻意工作的途徑，以提高回報，同時適應 25 年可能放緩的成長環境，而這種環境應該會在 26 年恢復。

And then aside from your cost, your productivity gains and stuff like that, what else can you -- how else can you adapt?

然後，除了你的成本、你的生產力提升和類似的東西之外，你還能做什麼——你還能如何適應？

Well, there's a number of efforts at play, right?

嗯，有很多努力在起作用，對嗎？

So going back to what we committed to at Investor Day, the North Star is primacy, and that is the driver across all segments.

因此，回到我們在投資者日的承諾，北極星是首要的，這是所有細分市場的驅動力。

So in the case of GBM, it's really driving our transaction banking business at the heart of the relationships, moving from a lending-only relationship to a fully cross-sold transaction banking driven relationship.

因此，就 GBM 而言，它確實推動了我們作為關係核心的交易銀行業務，從僅限貸款的關係轉變為完全交叉銷售的交易銀行驅動的關係。

And to that effect, we've made great progress in the global transaction banking platform across all markets, and that will be continued on in '25.

為此，我們在所有市場的全球交易銀行平台方面取得了巨大進展，並將在 25 年繼續取得進展。

In the case of commercial, we regionalized the commercial banking model in IB, and we're now driving a consistent segmentation and value proposition across all markets.

就商業而言，我們對IB的商業銀行模式進行了區域化，現在我們正在所有市場上推動一致的細分和價值主張。

That's going to give us scale, but also better discipline in terms of how we deploy the balance sheet while completing the value proposition with stronger transaction banking efforts.

這將為我們提供規模，同時在如何部署資產負債表方面也提供更好的紀律，同時透過更強大的交易銀行業務完成價值主張。

In the retail bank is now fully regionalized.

零售銀行現在已完全區域化。

That means that we are consistently segmenting that business across all countries in affluent, emerging affluent, top of mass and mass.

這意味著我們始終如一地將所有國家的業務劃分為富裕國家、新興富裕國家、頂級大眾和大眾。

We now have P&Ls stacked against each of those four segments, and that is driving very consistent value proposition in each segment that is driving scale that before we couldn't achieve.

現在，我們對這四個細分市場中的每一個細分市場都建立了損益表，這在每個細分市場中推動了非常一致的價值主張，從而推動了我們以前無法實現的規模。

That has also rationalized our approach to expenses.

這也使我們的支出方式合理化。

So right now, we have moved all budgeting powers to a regional office both for operations and technology, for example.

因此，現在我們已將所有預算權力移交給區域辦事處，例如營運和技術方面的預算權力。

And what that's allowing us to do is prioritize investments for scale.

這讓我們能夠優先考慮規模投資。

So we're going to our common app, we're moving to common processes and procedures.

因此，我們將轉向通用應用程序，轉向通用流程和程序。

All of that is driving scale to a degree that we couldn't reach before.

所有這些都將規模擴大到我們以前無法達到的程度。

Again, all of that is deliberate and is an integral part of how we are ahead of our cost roll rate efficiency drivers towards 2028.

再說一次，所有這些都是經過深思熟慮的，也是我們在 2028 年實現成本滾動率效率驅動因素之前不可分割的一部分。

So that offer -- that process in '25 as we position ourselves to maximize the benefit in '26 and beyond.

因此，這個提議——25 年的流程，我們將自己定位為在 26 年及以後實現利益最大化。

Matthew Lee, Canaccord Genuity.

馬修李，Canaccord Genuity。

Maybe a clarification on the RWA growth this quarter.

也許是對本季 RWA 成長的澄清。

I think you guys mentioned book quality changes.

我想你們提到了書籍品質的變化。

It seems like exposure you're seeing is expanding pretty much every quarter, but sort of jump this one.

看起來你看到的曝光率幾乎每季都在擴大，但這一季度有點跳躍。

So I know part of it is recalibration, but is there any change in the risk of the book to call out?

所以我知道其中一部分是重新校準，但是這本書的風險有什麼變化需要指出嗎？

And how should we think about RWA growth impacting capital for '25.

我們應該如何看待 RWA 成長對 25 年資本的影響。

It's Raj.

是拉吉。

I'll take that question.

我來回答這個問題。

So you got it right.

所以你做對了。

There was some migration in the corporate book too.

公司帳簿中也出現了一些遷移。

That was about a couple of billion dollars of the $8 billion.

這大約是 80 億美元中的幾十億美元。

The rest was all about the calibration that I referred to in my prepared remarks.

剩下的就是我在準備好的評論中提到的校準。

I think RWA growth for us is in 2025 compared to '24 is going to be driven by organic growth.

我認為與 24 年相比，2025 年我們的 RWA 成長將由有機成長推動。

And from time to time, we could have migration.

有時，我們可能會進行遷移。

That's just part of the business we are and we are in multiple countries.

這只是我們業務的一部分，而且我們遍布多個國家。

Various portfolios drive migration, be it retail or corporate commercial.

各種投資組合推動遷移，無論是零售或企業商業。

Hard to predict, but it's not something that we're looking forward saying this could increase our RWA consumption in 2025.

很難預測，但我們並不期待這會增加我們 2025 年的 RWA 消耗量。

It could be a few basis points early part of the year and so on.

可能是今年年初的幾個基點等等。

But I think organic growth is going to drive some of the internal capital generation that we have is going to get deployed in good quality growth in line with the comments you have made primary customers and so on that should drive superior returns to what we generated in the past.

但我認為，有機成長將推動我們擁有的一些內部資本生成，根據您對主要客戶的評論，我們將部署在高品質的成長中，等等，這應該會為我們帶來更高的回報。 。

The capital ratio, like we have said before, we are quite comfortable operating a little north of 12.5%.

資本比率，就像我們之前說過的，我們在 12.5% 以上的水平上運作是相當舒服的。

It seems like the right capital ratio for us as we think about how we increase the return on equity of the company as well.

當我們考慮如何提高公司的股本回報率時，這對我們來說似乎是正確的資本比率。

Okay, that's fair.

好吧，這很公平。

Then can we potentially see a reversal of that increased exposure or that growth if macro environment gets better?

那麼，如果宏觀環境好轉，我們是否有可能看到風險敞口增加或成長出現逆轉？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

I think credit quality is always a factor.

我認為信用品質始終是一個因素。

It moves around every quarter as you probably know multiple portfolios drive it up or down.

它每個季度都會波動，因為您可能知道多個投資組合會推動它上漲或下跌。

Depending on the outlook, I would say in the first half of the year, a little less probability, Matthew, the way we see it because it's heard from Francisco about low-growth economies as well.

根據前景，我想說，在今年上半年，可能性會小一些，馬修，我們的看法是，因為弗朗西斯科也聽說了低成長經濟體。

So we're going to be cautious.

所以我們要保持謹慎。

And capital, as you know, PDs, LGDs are always conservative.

而資本，如你所知，PD、LGD總是保守的。

PD is through the cycle, LGDs are downturn LGDs.

PD是貫穿週期的，LGD是低迷的LGD。

So it factors into our models and our metrics that come about.

因此，它會影響我們的模型和產生的指標。

But I would say in the second half, we might likely see some benefits, but I don't think there should be any major deviation in the first half, but it could be a few basis points.

但我想說，在下半年，我們可能會看到一些好處，但我認為上半年應該不會有任何重大偏差，但可能是幾個基點。

Paul Holden, CIBC.

保羅·霍爾登，CIBC。

I have a question for Phil.

我有一個問題想問菲爾。

On the Canadian residential mortgage books saw a bit of an uptick in impairments this quarter.

本季加拿大住宅抵押貸款帳簿上的減損略有上升。

I know you commented that as something you expected.

我知道你的評論是你所期望的。

But just wondering if you can kind of provide any more details on what drove it?

但只是想知道您是否可以提供更多有關驅動因素的詳細資訊？

It was just simply interest rate pressures?

只是利率壓力嗎？

And then with renewals on fixed mortgages coming up in '25, why that's not going to be more problematic, if that's the case and or if there's a certain cohort of mortgages this quarter that saw more pressure than the overall book.

然後，隨著 25 年固定抵押貸款的續簽，為什麼這不會成為更大的問題，如果情況確實如此，或者如果本季度有一組抵押貸款比整體抵押貸款面臨更大的壓力。

Listen, I think across our retail book in Canada, we're definitely seeing some impact of higher for longer.

聽著，我認為在加拿大的零售業務中，我們肯定會看到價格上漲帶來的一些長期影響。

It was a softer quarter from a GDP perspective, some unemployment.

從 GDP 角度來看，這是一個疲軟的季度，出現了一些失業率。

So not totally unexpected, but we are seeing some -- as it relates to our mortgage portfolio, specifically, we're starting to see some green shoots as it relates to interest rates starting to come through.

因此，這並不完全出乎意料，但我們看到了一些——因為它與我們的抵押貸款投資組合有關，特別是，我們開始看到一些萌芽，因為它與利率開始出現。

And if I -- but if I look at the [91 plus] that you're referring to, and I double-click on what's driving that.

如果我 - 但是如果我查看您所指的 [91 plus]，然後雙擊驅動它的因素。

It's about 250 customers, primarily in Toronto and Vancouver that are driving that uptick this quarter.

大約有 250 名客戶（主要來自多倫多和溫哥華）推動了本季的成長。

In terms of FRM, we're actually seeing some improvement as customers come in for renewal in that portfolio.

就 FRM 而言，隨著客戶前來更新該產品組合，我們實際上看到了一些改進。

So optimistic there.

那裡很樂觀。

And maybe just to comment, to give you maybe a little bit more context.

也許只是為了發表評論，為您提供更多背景資訊。

From a deposit perspective, we actually saw some interesting trends as well this quarter.

從存款的角度來看，本季我們實際上也看到了一些有趣的趨勢。

We saw fixed rate mortgage customers holding about 6% more in their deposit account quarter-over-quarter and VRM customers about 5.5% more in their deposit account.

我們發現固定利率抵押貸款客戶的存款帳戶比上一季增加了約 6%，VRM 客戶的存款帳戶增加了約 5.5%。

So you can start to see there's some early signs.

所以你可以開始看到一些早期跡象。

I mean, one period is not a trend, but there's some optimism there.

我的意思是，某個時期不是一種趨勢，但有一些樂觀情緒。

I would say on the credit card portfolio, you saw some uptick in delinquency there.

我想說的是，在信用卡投資組合中，拖欠率上升。

We expect that portfolio will stay higher probably into the first half of 2025 as I guided in my outlook.

正如我在展望中所指導的那樣，我們預計投資組合可能會在 2025 年上半年保持在高水準。

So we're continuing to expect a little bit more deterioration in that portfolio.

因此，我們繼續預期該投資組合將進一步惡化。

And so we'll manage that as we forward.

因此，我們將在前進的過程中解決這個問題。

Can I sneak in one really quick one for Scott.

我可以偷偷送一份給斯科特一份非常快的嗎？

You said hopeful Key closes Q1.

你說充滿希望的Key結束了第一季。

Is that calendar or fiscal?

那是日曆還是財政？

Calendar.

日曆。

John Aiken, Jefferies.

約翰艾肯，傑弗里斯。

In the MD&A, you talked about some pressure from Brazil negatively impacting top and bottom line in international.

在 MD&A 中，您談到了來自巴西的一些壓力對國際比賽的營收和利潤產生了負面影響。

A little surprised that this got called out because I did not think that the Brazilian operations were that meaningful to have an overall impact on international.

我有點驚訝這件事被提出來，因為我認為巴西的行動對國際比賽沒有那麼大的意義。

Can you describe what happened in the quarter and try to give us some sort of quantification in terms of what the scale of the operations are in Brazil?

您能否描述本季發生的情況，並嘗試對巴西的業務規模進行某種量化？

Yes, I'll help you with that, John.

是的，我會幫你的，約翰。

You're right.

你說得對。

Brazil is a very unique operation we have.

巴西是我們的一個非常獨特的業務。

It's very targeted towards very high-quality corporate clients.

它非常針對高品質的企業客戶。

We built up business over many, many years.

我們的業務已經建立了很多很多年。

Brazil contributes somewhere.

巴西在某些方面做出了貢獻。

It can vary by quarter because it's very transactional-driven.

它可能會因季度而異，因為它是非常受交易驅動的。

It will be about $50 million a quarter in that range NIAT some quarters being slightly higher and some lower.

每季約為 5,000 萬美元，NIAT 在此範圍內，有些季度略高，有些季度略低。

And that's what happened to us in Q4, one of the transactions, which was expected to close were delayed because of the currency impact from the US elections and so on.

這就是我們在第四季度發生的事情，其中​​一項預計完成的交易由於美國大選等因素的貨幣影響而被推遲。

Those volatility, the client chose to close like 10 days afterwards, so it impacted our Q4 results.

這些波動，客戶選擇在 10 天後關閉，因此影響了我們第四季的業績。

Plus Brazil is one of those that we are focused on saying, are we getting the appropriate returns for the capital that we have deployed over there, all part of the capital optimization strategy.

另外，巴西是我們重點關注的國家之一，我們在那裡部署的資本是否獲得了適當的回報，所有這些都是資本優化策略的一部分。

But I think Brazil is a very strong operation for us.

但我認為巴西對我們來說是一個非常強大的業務。

It's a corporate bank operation.

這是一家公司銀行業務。

We don't have anything else over there.

我們那裡沒有其他東西了。

And it's a very unique operation in that it contributes very consistently somewhere in the $50 million range per quarter, which was lower this quarter.

這是一項非常獨特的業務，因為它每季的貢獻始終保持在 5000 萬美元的範圍內，而本季的貢獻較低。

Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

馬裡奧門東卡，道明證券。

First for Phil.

首先是菲爾。

Phil, when you offer the mid-50s guidance on total PCLs, could you give us any insight into what that implies on the performing side?

Phil，當您提供 50 年代中期關於總 PCL 的指導時，您能否給我們一些關於這對執行方面意味著什麼的見解？

Like what I'm getting at here is -- are we at the stage now where the allowances have been sufficiently built up that we can actually see the releases come through the way IFRS 9 was sort of intended?

就像我在這裡要說的是——我們現在是否處於準備金已經足夠多的階段，以至於我們實際上可以看到按照 IFRS 9 的預期方式發布了這些信息？

Yes, I think that's fair, Mario.

是的，我認為這是公平的，馬裡奧。

As I said in my prepared remarks, we had -- we built over the last two years with the anticipation that we would hit -- now we're starting to release into that.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們在過去兩年裡一直期待著我們會取得成功，現在我們開始釋放這一點。

And so as I said earlier, performing as expected.

正如我之前所說，表現符合預期。

And then on capital, and this might maybe Raj or Scott.

然後是資本，這可能是拉吉或斯科特。

Can you talk about what dividend growth expectations would be like in 2025 will that resume?

您能談談 2025 年股息成長預期會恢復嗎？

And also, is there room for Scotia to start to return capital to shareholders in other ways, like buybacks, for example, just sort of in line with that outlook you have for our ROE improvement over time.

此外，豐業銀行是否有空間開始以其他方式向股東返還資本，例如回購，這與您對我們隨著時間的推移股本回報率改善的預期一致。

I know you're not talking about this year necessarily, but

我知道你不一定在談論今年，但是

--

--

Great question, Mario.

好問題，馬裡奧。

I mean as we didn't grow the dividend this year, as you know, because we had earnings flat and now as we resume earnings growth in that 5% to 7% range, and then accelerate beyond that, we'll see a resumption of the dividend.

我的意思是，正如你所知，今年我們沒有增加股息，因為我們的盈利持平，現在隨著我們恢復盈利增長 5% 至 7% 的範圍，然後加速超越這個範圍，我們將看到恢復股息。

It's my expectation that we're going to have to grow into the payout ratio, and we'll do that over multiple years, but you should see modest improvements in the dividend is my expectations.

我的預期是，我們必須提高派息率，並且我們將在多年內做到這一點，但我的預期是，您應該看到股息的適度改善。

On the share repurchase side, we're not there yet, but it's on our mind.

在股票回購方面，我們還沒有做到這一點，但我們已經在考慮了。

And so as we go through '25 and close the Key acquisition and start generating some of those earnings.

因此，當我們經歷 25 年並完成 Key 收購並開始產生部分收益時。

I think it's going to be a topic of discussion with shareholders in back half of the year into '26.

我認為這將成為 26 年後半年與股東討論的話題。

Lemar Persaud, Cormark.

勒馬爾·佩爾紹德，科馬克。

Maybe for Scott or Raj, can you guys help me square up why despite a higher tax rate challenges in primary client growth and perhaps a tougher economic backdrop in international, why the 5% to 7% EPS growth for 2025.

也許對史考特或拉傑來說，你們能幫我弄清楚為什麼儘管主要客戶成長面臨更高的稅率挑戰，而且國際經濟背景可能更加嚴峻，為什麼 2025 年每股收益成長 5% 到 7%。

Like is it all down to lowering interest rates versus when you provided the guidance at Investor Day last year.

與去年投資者日提供指導時相比，這一切都是為了降低利率。

Just talk about some of levers in driving that 5% to 7%.

只是談談推動 5% 到 7% 成長的一些槓桿。

Sure.

當然。

Happy to do that, Lemar.

很高興這樣做，勒馬爾。

I'll break it down by business line or makes it easier and related back to the Investor Day comments that we made.

我將按業務線對其進行細分，或者使其變得更容易，並與我們在投資者日發表的評論相關聯。

We were clear in the Investor Day on International Banking that it would be lower in '25 compared to '24.

我們在國際銀行投資者日明確表示，25 年的數字將低於 24 年。

One of the drivers is the tax.

驅動因素之一是稅收。

The other driver is everything that Francisco talked about.

另一個司機就是弗朗西斯科談到的一切。

This is about how we want to optimize the capital deploy.

這是我們想要如何優化資本配置的問題。

And that's the short-term right decision.

這是短期的正確決定。

So it's playing to our Investor Day plan, frankly, and that's what we expect in 2025.

坦白說，這符合我們的投資者日計劃，這也是我們對 2025 年的預期。

Canadian Bank earnings will grow.

加拿大銀行的獲利將會成長。

I called it solid, which is another way of saying it will be low to mid-single digits from our perspective on earnings.

我稱其為“穩健”，這是從我們對盈利的角度來看它將處於低至中個位數的另一種說法。

That's going to come primarily from perhaps stable PCLs because like Phil said, we have built a lot.

這將主要來自可能穩定的 PCL，因為就像 Phil 所說，我們已經建造了很多。

So hopefully, to require more PCLs as well as loan and deposit growth both of which are expected by compared to '24, again, in line with Investor Day.

因此，希望與 24 年相比，需要更多的 PCL 以及貸款和存款成長，這與投資者日一致。

Wealth management.

財富管理。

Wealth management, you saw this year, pretty close to 10% growth in earnings.

今年財富管理的收益成長接近 10%。

That's what it should do in '25 as well, again, in line with what we thought at Investor Day as AUM starts growing, markets are helping as well.

這也是它在 25 年應該做的事情，再次與我們在投資者日的想法一致，隨著 AUM 開始成長，市場也提供幫助。

But we also have the initiative to sell retail mutual funds through the branches and so the strategic initiatives in Wealth.

但我們也有透過分行銷售零售共同基金的舉措，以及財富方面的策略性舉措。

So confident about the growth in wealth management is going to help us.

對財富管理成長的信心將對我們有所幫助。

And finally, like what you said.

最後，就像你說的。

The rate situation is a big contributor.

利率情況是一個很大的因素。

You've already started seeing it in the other segment over $100 million NII improved this quarter.

您已經開始看到本季其他領域超過 1 億美元的 NII 有所改善。

That should continue into Q1 and then start accelerating as well as the full benefit of the rate cuts start playing into.

這種情況應該會持續到第一季度，然後開始加速，降息的全部好處也開始發揮作用。

GBM, this was a tough year for them because the dividend received deduction.

GBM，這對他們來說是艱難的一年，因為股息被扣除。

But excluding that, they grew 9%.

但排除這一點，它們增長了 9%。

So mid-single digits growth in GBM is what we expect.

因此，GBM 的中個位數成長是我們所期望的。

Again, as they start rationalizing capital, I think they're in the back half of that to see how we can continue to improve the profitability all of which, Lemar, what I'm telling you is consistent with what we said at the Investor Day and what we expected in 2025.

再說一遍，當他們開始合理化資本時，我認為他們正在考慮如何繼續提高盈利能力，所有這些，勒馬爾，我告訴你的與我們在投資者會上所說的一致一天以及我們對2025 年的預期。

That's why the confidence, the 5% to 7%.

這就是為什麼我們有5%到7%的信心。

Macro will always be a factor.

宏觀永遠是個因素。

We estimate it as best as we can, whether it's FX rates or macro, but I don't think that should have a serious impact to the 5% to 7%, maybe push it closer towards the midpoint of 5% to 7% from what we thought at the beginning of the year and we talk to you at the Investor Day.

我們盡可能地估計，無論是匯率還是宏觀，但我認為這不會對 5% 至 7% 產生嚴重影響，也許會將其推向 5% 至 7% 的中點我們在年初的想法，並在投資者日與您交談。

If I could squeeze in just a really quick one here.

如果我能在這裡快速插一句就好了。

Just Scott, for you.

只有斯科特，為了你。

When you mentioned the double-digit EPS growth for 2026, does that include KeyCorp or is that ex-KeyCorp?

當您提到 2026 年每股盈餘兩位數成長時，這是否包括 KeyCorp 還是前 KeyCorp？

Yes.

是的。

No, it would be including KeyCorp because you have the benefits of the PTPP growth, you have a little bit of a better macro environment, so PCL is moderating, you get the benefits of the rates, and then you have KeyCorp on top of that.

不，它會包括 KeyCorp，因為你有 PTPP 成長的好處，你有一點更好的宏觀環境，所以 PCL 正在放緩，你得到了利率的好處，然後你還有 KeyCorp 。

So it's mid digit, double digit.

所以它是中位數數字，兩位數。

That makes sense because there's a lot -- there's three big components there.

這是有道理的，因為有很多——那裡有三個主要組成部分。

So it's a very attractive 2026 profile as those things play out as we expect.

因此，這是一個非常有吸引力的 2026 年概況，因為這些事情都按照我們的預期進行。

Jill Shea, UBS.

吉爾謝伊，瑞銀集團。

Raj, just on the Other segment, we did see the NII number improved this quarter.

Raj，就其他部分而言，我們確實看到本季的 NII 數量有所改善。

Just curious if you could give us some more color in terms of both the NII trajectory into 2025 with rate cuts as well as the bottom line results in other segments, just given I presume that tax rate hit is going to run through the Other segment.

只是好奇您能否為我們提供更多關於 2025 年降息後的 NII 軌跡以及其他細分市場的底線結果的信息，因為我認為稅率打擊將貫穿其他細分市場。

Any color there would be appreciated.

任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

Yes, absolutely, Jill and nice to take your call.

是的，當然，吉爾，很高興接到您的電話。

The NII improvement, like you said, is primarily from lower funding costs, that should continue.

正如您所說，國家資訊基礎設施的改善主要來自融資成本的降低，這種情況應該會持續下去。

So the $100 million are expected to be something consistent next quarter as well as we see the benefits going from rate cuts that have happened.

因此，預計下個季度的 1 億美元將保持不變，而且我們也看到了降息所帶來的好處。

And to be clear, we are most exposed to the Canadian rate cuts.

需要明確的是，我們最容易受到加拿大降息的影響。

Our US book tends to be floating on both sides.

我們的美國書往往是左右浮動。

So it's not a huge differentiator whether rate cuts happen or not.

因此，是否降息並不是一個巨大的差異。

But the Canadian book will certainly benefit as rate cuts come through, and that will show up in this segment.

但隨著降息的實施，加拿大的書肯定會受益，這將在這一部分中體現出來。

This quarter, there was some noise in the expense line.

本季度，費用線出現了一些噪音。

If you look at it.

如果你看一下。

So bottom line, $453 million this quarter.

因此，本季的底線為 4.53 億美元。

I think it will get to the low $400s next quarter and then get into the $300s as the year goes by.

我認為下個季度它將降至 400 美元左右，然後隨著時間的推移將達到 300 美元左右。

The tax rate in this segment, if you just calculate it, it's about 35% and that's what I expect for the rest of next year as well.

這個細分市場的稅​​率，如果你算的話，大約是35%，這也是我對明年剩餘時間的預期。

This segment should have a tax rate around 35%.

該細分市場的稅​​率應在 35% 左右。

That's the right rate.

這是正確的利率。

As you know, the segment has got a lot of components, group treasury being one of the big components, which we have our investment book as well as our funding books.

如您所知，該部門有很多組成部分，集團財務是其中一個重要組成部分，我們有投資帳簿和融資帳簿。

And then we do operate in multiple countries, which are all aggregated in some of these smaller segments as we call it, nonrelated to the business.

然後我們確實在多個國家開展業務，這些國家都集中在我們所說的一些較小的細分市場中，與業務無關。

So 35% is the right tax rate.

所以35%是合適的稅率。

Global minimum tax is coming up, so 1% is going to bank as a whole.

全球最低稅即將到來，因此 1% 將流向整個銀行。

So this segment, like I said, should get down to the low 400s and then get into the 300s for the rest of the year, mostly driven from NII improvement.

因此，正如我所說，這個細分市場應該會下降到 400 左右，然後在今年剩餘時間內進入 300 左右，這主要是由於 NII 改善。

The investment gains, which goes through NIR, that can be lumpy, as you know.

如您所知，透過 NIR 獲得的投資收益可能是不穩定的。

Some quarters, we might have some gains on the quarters we may not.

在某些季度，我們可能會取得一些進展，而在某些季度則可能不會。

If I focus on the NII line, and that should start reflecting in the bottom line.

如果我關注 NII 線，那應該開始反映在底線中。

Sohrab Movahedi, BMO Capital Markets.

Sohrab Movahedi，BMO 資本市場。

I just wanted to clarify something with Phil.

我只是想向菲爾澄清一些事情。

Phil, for '25, I think that, let's call it, mid-50s PCL-- like do you expect '25 PCLs to be higher than '24 PCLs?

Phil，對於 25 年，我認為，我們稱之為 50 年代中期的 PCL——就像您期望 25 PCL 會高於 24 PCL 一樣嗎？

So right now, we're signaling we're going to be sort of right in line with where we are.

所以現在，我們表示我們將與我們目前的情況保持一致。

And again, Sohrab, as I said in my prepared remarks, will be slightly elevated in the first half of the year with improved performance coming down in the second half of the year.

再次強調，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，索拉博將在今年上半年略有上升，而下半年的表現將有所改善。

That's how we're forecasting things right now.

這就是我們現在預測事情的方式。

I mean I don't want to put too fine a point on it, Phil.

我的意思是我不想對此說得太過分，菲爾。

But in your sub pack, you have 2024 total bank PCLs 53 basis points.

但在您的子包中，您有 2024 年銀行 PCL 總計 53 個基點。

That seems to me to be mid-50s and you finished the second half with 55, 54.

在我看來，那是 50 年代中期，下半場你以 55、54 結束。

So when you say first half of next year might be a little bit elevated, it could be higher than how the second half of this year has gone.

因此，當你說明年上半年可能會提高時，它可能會高於今年下半年的情況。

Is that what you're implying to us?

這就是你向我們暗示的意思嗎？

I would think about it flat to slightly elevated and then starting to come down in the second part as we hit to Q3 into Q4.

我認為它會持平到略有上升，然後在第二部分開始下降，因為我們從第三季進入第四季。

But I mean you've got one of the smallest relative credit card book.

但我的意思是你擁有最小的相對信用卡簿之一。

So what's causing this degradation in the first half of next year?

那麼，是什麼導致了明年上半年的下滑呢？

Remember, we have the SDA portfolio, the near prime auto book.

請記住，我們有 SDA 投資組合，這是近乎優質的汽車書籍。

I mean that actually operates similar to a credit card portfolio with the other Canadian banks in terms of the credit performance we're seeing in that book today.

我的意思是，就我們今天在那本書中看到的信用表現而言，實際上與其他加拿大銀行的信用卡投資組合的運作類似。

And so there's -- but we -- as I said in my prepared remarks, we've built allowances were we're -- we've expected this to come through for a little while.

所以，但我們——正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們已經建立了津貼——我們預計這將在一段時間內實現。

If you also look in the investor slides into the -- some of the international portfolios, you'll see that there's some 91 plus in the Mexican portfolio.

如果您也查看一些國際投資組合的投資者投影片，您會發現墨西哥投資組合中有 91 多個。

And so that's causing a little bit of noise as well as we look towards -- these are customers that had deferrals through the pandemic that are now sort of rolling off given our write-off policy in that market.

因此，這引起了一些噪音，正如我們所期待的那樣——這些客戶在大流行期間推遲了付款，鑑於我們在該市場的沖銷政策，這些客戶現在正在減少。

We have some of these noncore portfolios we're looking at in international such as the one we have in Chile.

我們在國際上有一些非核心投資組合，例如我們在智利的投資組合。

And so there's a few moving parts that we're just simply mindful of in the overall retail portfolios.

因此，在整個零售投資組合中，我們只需要注意一些變化的部分。

And maybe a quick one for Raj.

對拉傑來說也許是一個快速的過程。

I know I hear the 14% ROE.

我知道我聽到的是 14% 的 ROE。

Do you have the equivalent number from a return on asset perspective that you're targeting?

從資產報酬率的角度來看，您是否有與您的目標相當的數字？

ROE, as you know, is lower now, it's around the 60 basis points.

如您所知，ROE 現在較低，約為 60 個基點。

We expect that to continue to improve.

我們預計這一情況將繼續改善。

Sohrab I would say around 2026, we should be closer to the 80 basis points Eventually, we want to get to 100 basis points, which might be in the second half of the five-year plan.

Sohrab 我想說，到 2026 年左右，我們應該更接近 80 個基點。

We have no further questions registered at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

I would now like to turn the meeting back over to Raj.

我現在想把會議轉回拉吉。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

And on behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank everyone for participating in our call today.

我謹代表整個管理團隊感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

We look forward to speaking to you again at our Q1 call in February.

我們期待在二月的第一季電話會議上再次與您交談。

This concludes our fourth quarter results call.

我們的第四季業績電話會議到此結束。

Wish you all a great day.

祝大家有個愉快的一天。