Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2024 First Quarter Results Presentation. My name is John McCartney, and I'm Head of Investor Relations here at Scotiabank. Presenting to you this morning are Scott Thomson, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer; Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer; and Phil Thomas, our Chief Risk Officer.

早安，歡迎來到豐業銀行 2024 年第一季業績發表會。我叫約翰‧麥卡尼，是豐業銀行投資人關係主管。今天早上向您介紹的是豐業銀行總裁兼執行長 Scott Thomson； Raj Viswanathan，我們的財務長；以及我們的首席風險長 Phil Thomas。

Following our comments, we'll be glad to take your questions. Also present to take questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Aris Bogdaneris from Canadian Banking; Jacqui Allard from Global Wealth Management; and Francisco Aristeguieta from International Banking.

根據我們的評論，我們很樂意回答您的問題。出席提問的還有以下豐業銀行主管： 加拿大銀行業的 Aris Bogdaneris；全球財富管理公司的 Jacqui Allard；和國際銀行業的 Francisco Aristeguieta。

Before we start and on behalf of those speaking today, I will refer you to Slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward-looking statements. With that, I will now turn the call over to Scott.

在我們開始之前，我代表今天的發言者，請您參閱我們簡報的投影片 2，其中包含豐業銀行對前瞻性陳述的謹慎態度。現在，我將把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first call of 2024 and importantly, our first set of results since we shared our refreshed strategy at our Investor Day in December. We are off to an encouraging start to the year, and our results are consistent with our expectations. It is still early in the execution of our strategy, but we are realizing benefits of our enterprise-wide efforts by way of disciplined capital allocation, focusing on investments that deliver returns, maintaining a strong balance sheet, a focus on deposit growth and building primary client relationships that enhance profitability and cost efficiency.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。歡迎參加我們 2024 年的第一次電話會議，重要的是，這是自我們在 12 月的投資者日分享更新後的策略以來的第一組結果。今年我們迎來了令人鼓舞的開局，我們的結果與我們的預期一致。我們的策略執行還處於早期階段，但我們正在透過嚴格的資本配置、專注於帶來回報的投資、維持強勁的資產負債表、專注於存款成長和建立基礎設施等方式實現整個企業努力的效益。提高盈利能力和成本效率的客戶關係。

The bank reported adjusted earnings of $2.2 billion or $1.69 per share in the quarter. Strong revenue growth, coupled with disciplined cost performance across our businesses allowed us to improve profitability quarter-over-quarter despite higher credit provisions. We further strengthened our balance sheet and liquidity profile in keeping with our commitment to build capital over time.

該銀行公佈本季調整後收益為 22 億美元，即每股 1.69 美元。強勁的收入成長，加上我們各業務嚴格的成本績效，使我們能夠在信貸撥備增加的情況下逐季提高獲利能力。我們進一步加強了資產負債表和流動性狀況，以履行我們長期累積資本的承諾。

Our CET1 ratio at 12.9% reflects our efforts to extend our balance sheet thoughtfully to business segments and clients where we see the opportunity to build holistic and profitable long-term relationships. Our liquidity coverage ratio strengthened to 132% year-over-year, lessening our reliance on market source funding with a reduction in our wholesale funding ratio to 20.3%.

我們的 CET1 比率為 12.9%，反映出我們努力將資產負債表深思熟慮地擴展到業務部門和客戶，我們看到了在這些業務部門和客戶中建立全面且有利可圖的長期關係的機會。我們的流動性覆蓋率年增至132%，減少了對市場來源資金的依賴，批發資金比率降至20.3%。

Assets across the bank were up marginally year-over-year, reflecting our disciplined approach to growth in a more muted Canadian residential mortgage market environment. The impact of our ongoing portfolio repositioning in the Global Banking and Markets business was offset by growth in other personal and commercial lines of business. We continue to execute on risk-weighted asset optimization opportunities by reducing our closure to less profitable relationships where we don't see the opportunity for acceptable risk-adjusted returns on our shareholders' capital.

全行資產較去年小幅成長，反映出我們在加拿大住宅抵押貸款市場環境更加疲軟的情況下採取的嚴謹的成長方式。我們在全球銀行和市場業務中正在進行的投資組合重新定位的影響被其他個人和商業業務線的成長所抵消。我們繼續執行風險加權資產優化機會，減少關閉利潤較低的關係，因為我們看不到股東資本獲得可接受的風險調整回報的機會。

Our risk-weighted assets have been managed lower by 4% year-over-year as a result of portfolio repositioning and optimization efforts. However, we did see growth sequentially in conjunction with the significant improvement in our return on risk-weighted assets, which we believe to be an important metric in driving shareholder value. Our organizational focus on core deposits continues to show progress with deposits up on an all-bank basis and strong growth in the P&C businesses with 9% deposit growth in Canadian Banking and 5% deposit growth in International Banking.

由於投資組合重新定位和優化工作，我們的風險加權資產管理水準年減了 4%。然而，我們確實看到了連續成長以及風險加權資產回報率的顯著改善，我們認為這是推動股東價值的一個重要指標。我們對核心存款的組織關注持續取得進展，全銀行存款成長，財產與意外傷害業務強勁成長，加拿大銀行業務存款成長 9%，國際銀行業務存款成長 5%。

The result of our efforts to thoughtfully manage growth on both sides of the balance sheet has resulted in a loan-to-deposit ratio that is down over 600 basis points to 110% on a year-over-year basis.

我們精心管理資產負債表兩側的成長，貸存比年減 600 個基點至 110%。

Turning to the economic outlook. Although the Canadian economy has shown more resilience in response to the significant monetary policy tightening over the past 2 years, interest rates are having the desired impact on consumer sentiment and spending which should allow for rate cuts later this year.

轉向經濟前景。儘管加拿大經濟在應對過去兩年的大幅貨幣政策緊縮方面表現出更大的彈性，但利率正在對消費者信心和支出產生預期的影響，這應該允許今年稍後降息。

This quarter's results reflect an increase in credit provisioning given the incremental financial strain that sustained higher interest rates are having on our clients. We expect the Canadian economy to underperform both the U.S. and our key Latin American countries early this year, but show some growth reacceleration in response to policy easing and more active residential real estate markets in the back half of the year. We are expecting Mexico to show the strongest growth among the larger economies in the Americas in 2024 with some volatility expected leading into the summer's Presidential election.

本季的業績反映出，鑑於持續較高的利率給我們的客戶帶來的增量財務壓力，信貸撥備有所增加。我們預計今年年初加拿大經濟的表現將遜於美國和主要拉丁美洲國家，但由於政策寬鬆和下半年住宅房地產市場更加活躍，經濟成長將有所加速。我們預計墨西哥將在 2024 年實現美洲較大經濟體中最強勁的成長，預計夏季總統大選前會出現一些波動。

Our official forecasts are no longer calling for recessionary conditions in any of our operating geographies over the next few years. However, we remain well positioned to manage through more difficult economic scenarios should they unfold.

我們的官方預測不再要求我們的任何營運地區在未來幾年內出現衰退情況。然而，如果出現更困難的經濟情景，我們仍然能夠應對。

A few highlights in terms of performance and strategic progress within each of our business lines. Our Canadian Banking business had a strong start to the year, delivering 7% revenue growth and 3% expense growth resulting in positive operating leverage. Loan growth in our domestic business reflects a less active residential mortgage market as well as our own deliberate actions to focus on primary clients. Lower growth in mortgages has been offset by continued growth in business banking and strong credit card momentum, which allows us to continue to diversify our business mix.

我們每個業務線的績效和策略進展方面的一些亮點。我們的加拿大銀行業務今年開局強勁，實現了 7% 的收入成長和 3% 的費用成長，帶來了積極的營運槓桿。我們國內業務的貸款成長反映出住宅抵押貸款市場不太活躍，以及我們自己專注於主要客戶的刻意行動。商業銀行業務的持續成長和信用卡強勁勢頭抵消了抵押貸款成長的放緩，這使我們能夠繼續實現業務組合多元化。

Deposit growth continues to track well at 9% in the period, contributing to margin expansion and favorable trends in terms of our loan-to-deposit ratios. In our retail business, Aris and his team are focused on client pharmacy, deposit growth, client acquisition and relationship deepening across the portfolio. The continued strength of the Scene+ loyalty program now 15 million members strong, provides a significant opportunity to acquire new payment clients, an important step to a longer-term primary relationship with the bank.

在此期間，存款成長繼續保持在 9% 的良好水平，有助於利潤率擴張和貸存比率的有利趨勢。在我們的零售業務中，Aris 和他的團隊專注於客戶藥局、存款成長、客戶獲取和整個投資組合的關係深化。 Scene+ 忠誠度計畫的持續實力目前已擁有 1500 萬會員，為獲取新支付客戶提供了重要機會，這是與銀行建立長期主要關係的重要一步。

Over 40% of new-to-bank clients through the Scene+ partnership already have a multiproduct relationship with the bank. As mentioned, our approach to the mortgage business has evolved. We are having good success with our bundled offerings. Our Mortgage+ product represented 70% of deals done in the quarter, resulting in an average of 3.2 additional products per new-to-bank client. Primary client count was up by 42,000 in the quarter on the back of better cross-sell and proactive engagement.

透過 Scene+ 合作夥伴關係，超過 40% 的新銀行客戶已經與銀行建立了多產品關係。如前所述，我們的抵押貸款業務方式已經改變了。我們的捆綁產品取得了巨大成功。我們的 Mortgage+ 產品佔本季完成交易的 70%，平均每位銀行新客戶會額外購買 3.2 個產品。由於更好的交叉銷售和主動參與，本季主要客戶數量增加了 42,000 名。

We are closely tracking client relationship depth and saw progress as the number of clients with 3-plus banking products have seen a 50 basis point increase since the start of the fiscal year. Loan growth in our commercial and small business lines continues in the mid- to high single-digit range, with our teams focused on balancing loans and deposits, targeting growth in lead bank relationships and expanding returns on risk-weighted assets.

我們正在密切追蹤客戶關係深度，並看到了進展，自本財年開始以來，擁有 3 種以上銀行產品的客戶數量增加了 50 個基點。我們的商業和小型業務線的貸款成長繼續保持在中高個位數範圍內，我們的團隊專注於平衡貸款和存款，瞄準主要銀行關係的成長以及擴大風險加權資產的回報。

Tangerine delivered its highest quarterly earnings ever of $107 million, up 9% year-over-year. Tangerine's differentiated digital offering and expanded product capability continues to be a unique driver of additional primary clients. Tangerine continues to lead the market in mobile adoption with mobile onboarding up 12 points to 62% of all sign-ups and with overall mobile adoption up 4 points to 73% in the quarter.

Tangerine 實現了有史以來最高的季度收益，達到 1.07 億美元，年增 9%。 Tangerine 的差異化數位產品和擴展的產品功能仍然是吸引更多主要客戶的獨特驅動力。 Tangerine 在行動裝置採用率方面持續引領市場，本季行動裝置使用率上升 12 個百分點，達到 62%，整體行動裝置採用率上升 4 個百分點，達到 73%。

Global wealth earnings of $374 million reflect the strength of our asset management franchise, the power of our diversified domestic client advisory channels, rebounding market performance in recent months and strong momentum in our international wealth business.

3.74億美元的全球財富收益反映了我們資產管理業務的實力、多元化國內客戶諮詢管道的力量、近幾個月市場表現的反彈以及我們國際財富業務的強勁勢頭。

In domestic wealth, our well-established advice channels are integrated with our industry-leading private banking business and are designed to deliver the type of complete solutions that defined primary client relationships.

在國內財富領域，我們完善的諮詢管道與業界領先的私人銀行業務相結合，旨在提供定義主要客戶關係的完整解決方案。

In our Asset Management business, I will reiterate our opportunity to penetrate our own branch network as well as Tangerine more effectively. Only 10% of our Scotiabank retail banking clients have purchased our mutual fund products. This penetration lags peers. A stronger partnership between our award-winning fund business and our retail networks will deliver meaningful upside to our current results. Jacqui and Aris are partnering to actively implement action plans to address the sizable upside opportunity. Our international wealth business contributed $65 million in the quarter, up 18% year-over-year an increasingly meaningful contributor to our wealth results. Mexico specifically represents the largest opportunity as positive mutual fund inflows and strong fund performance are driving highly accretive growth in this business.

在我們的資產管理業務中，我將重申我們有機會更有效地滲透我們自己的分公司網路以及 Tangerine。只有 10% 的豐業銀行零售銀行客戶購買了我們的共同基金產品。這一滲透率落後於同行。我們屢獲殊榮的基金業務與零售網絡之間更緊密的合作關係將為我們當前的業績帶來有意義的提升。 Jacqui 和 Aris 正在合作積極實施行動計劃，以抓住巨大的上昇機會。我們的國際財富業務本季貢獻了 6,500 萬美元，年增 18%，對我們的財富表現做出了越來越重要的貢獻。墨西哥尤其代表著最大的機遇，因為共同基金的積極流入和強勁的基金業績正在推動該業務的高度增值成長。

Our Global Banking and Markets business reported a solid quarter with earnings of $439 million. The business remains focused on maintaining top-tier status in key Canadian wholesale products and continues to organically build U.S. capabilities. Our U.S. GBM business delivered 13% earnings growth on 3% revenue growth year-over-year, reflecting our focus on return discipline and fee income through a rigorous client selection and profitability evaluation process.

我們的全球銀行和市場業務季度業績穩健，收益達 4.39 億美元。該業務仍然專注於保持加拿大主要批發產品的頂級地位，並繼續有機地建立美國的能力。我們的美國 GBM 業務實現了 13% 的獲利成長，營收年增 3%，反映出我們透過嚴格的客戶選擇和獲利能力評估流程對回報紀律和費用收入的關注。

In GBM, our upside opportunity is based on return optimization by driving more ancillary fee revenue as a percentage of loan exposure through deliberate client selection and relationship deepening aligning our capabilities with client needs. It is important to note that our wholesale business in Canada will face a profitability headwind going forward because of a pending change in Canadian tax legislation related to the elimination of the corporate dividend deduction. Our international banking business delivered exceptionally strong results this quarter with earnings contribution of $752 million.

在 GBM 中，我們的上行機會是基於回報優化，透過深思熟慮的客戶選擇和深化關係，使我們的能力與客戶需求保持一致，從而推動輔助費用收入佔貸款敞口的比例增加。值得注意的是，由於與取消企業股息扣除相關的加拿大稅務立法即將發生變化，我們在加拿大的批發業務未來將面臨盈利能力的阻力。我們的國際銀行業務本季取得了異常強勁的業績，獲利貢獻達 7.52 億美元。

Solid revenue growth across segments, good expense discipline and a particularly strong performance by our GBM LatAm business drove the result. The business delivered a substantial overall improvement in profitability, up 35% from the prior quarter, supported by almost 400 basis points of improvement in the productivity ratio with no increase in capital deployed. We believe we have more than sufficient capital and product capabilities in place to capitalize on the opportunities in these markets when favorable market conditions and client activity allow as evidenced by our results in this past quarter.

各細分市場的穩健收入成長、良好的支出紀律以及 GBM 拉丁美洲業務的強勁表現推動了這一結果。該業務的獲利能力整體大幅提高，較上一季成長 35%，這得益於生產力提高近 400 個基點，而部署的資本卻沒有增加。我們相信，當有利的市場條件和客戶活動允許時，我們擁有足夠的資本和產品能力來利用這些市場的機會，正如我們上個季度的業績所證明的那樣。

On the retail side of the business, we remain overly reliant on the secured residential mortgage business, and we are too often a single product provider to the client, which is the opportunity ahead.

在零售業務方面，我們仍然過度依賴擔保住宅抵押貸款業務，而且我們往往是客戶的單一產品提供者，這就是未來的機會。

We are closely monitoring primacy as a percentage of overall relationships in each of international banking, retail, commercial and wholesale with a focus on product penetration and deposit growth. We have already seen a modest uptick from early actions taken.

我們正在密切關注國際銀行、零售、商業和批發領域整體關係中的首要地位，並專注於產品滲透率和存款成長。我們已經看到早期採取的行動略有上升。

The retail repositioning will require a sustained effort over the next few years to show meaningful results. The growth agenda in Commercial Banking and our plan to deliver stronger cross-border coverage to multinational clients operating throughout the region, will require further investment in support infrastructure and enhanced cash management capability. I look forward to the evolution of this business under Francisco's leadership as we build a more coordinated regional operating model and orient the business towards the sizable North American corridor opportunity, we believe we are so well positioned to capitalize on.

零售業的重新定位需要在未來幾年內持續努力才能取得有意義的成果。商業銀行業務的成長議程以及我們為在該地區運營的跨國客戶提供更強大的跨境覆蓋範圍的計劃，將需要進一步投資於支援基礎設施和增強現金管理能力。我期待這項業務在弗朗西斯科的領導下取得發展，因為我們建立了更協調的區域運營模式，並將業務定位於北美走廊的巨大機遇，我們相信我們處於有利地位，可以充分利用。

In summary, the first quarter was an encouraging start to the year. We are now in the early stages of execution against plans to deliver on our key strategic objectives, earning client primacy, growing and scaling and identified priority markets, making it easier to do business with us and winning as one team. We have been through an exhaustive and collaborative exercise to establish the key performance indicators for each business, many of which were shared at our Investor Day. And we will provide progress updates to you on the most impactful KPIs in future financial reporting periods.

總而言之，第一季是今年令人鼓舞的開局。我們現在正處於執行計劃的早期階段，以實現我們的關鍵戰略目標，贏得客戶至上，發展和擴大並確定優先市場，使與我們開展業務更容易並作為一個團隊獲勝。我們經過詳盡的協作工作，為每項業務建立了關鍵績效指標，其中許多指標在我們的投資者日上分享了。我們將向您提供有關未來財務報告期間最具影響力的關鍵績效指標 (KPI) 的最新進展。

With that, I will turn it over to Raj for a more detailed financial review of the quarter.

這樣，我將把它交給 Raj，以對該季度進行更詳細的財務審查。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. All my comments that follow will be on an adjusted basis for the usual acquisition-related costs. The 2023 competitive figures have been restated to reflect the adoption of IFRS 17.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。我接下來的所有評論都將根據通常的收購相關成本進行調整。 2023 年競爭數據已重新表述，以反映 IFRS 17 的採用。

Moving to Slide 6 for a review of the first quarter results. The bank reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $2.2 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.69. Return on equity was 11.9% and return on tangible common equity was 14.6%. Revenues were up 6% year-over-year, driven by increases in both net interest income that was up 5% and noninterest income that was up 8%.

轉到投影片 6，回顧第一季的業績。該銀行報告季度調整後收益為 22 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.69 美元。股本回報率為 11.9%，有形普通股回報率為 14.6%。在淨利息收入成長 5% 和非利息收入成長 8% 的推動下，營收年增 6%。

All bank net interest margin expanded 8 basis points year-over-year and 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter from higher margins in international and Canadian Banking partly offset by lower contribution from asset liability management activities and increased levels of lower-margin high-quality liquid assets. Noninterest income was $3.7 billion, up 13% quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to higher trading revenues, banking fees and wealth management revenues.

所有銀行的淨利差同比增長8 個基點，環比增長4 個基點，原因是國際和加拿大銀行業的利潤率較高，但資產負債管理活動的貢獻下降以及低利潤率高水平的增加部分抵消了這一影響。優質流動資產。非利息收入為 37 億美元，季增 13%，主要是因為交易收入、銀行費用和財富管理收入增加。

Provision for credit losses were $962 million and the PCL ratio was 50 basis points, up 17 basis points year-over-year. Quarter-over-quarter, expenses were flat as seasonally higher share-based compensation and increased employee benefit costs were offset by lower professional fees and other staffing-related costs. Expenses grew 6% year-over-year or 4% excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, reflecting higher share-based compensation, technology costs and business access.

信貸損失準備金為9.62億美元，PCL比率為50個基點，較去年同期上升17個基點。與上一季相比，費用持平，因為季節性較高的股份薪資和增加的員工福利成本被較低的專業費用和其他人員相關成本所抵消。費用年增 6%，扣除外幣換算的不利影響後成長 4%，反映出股權激勵、技術成本和業務進入的增加。

The productivity ratio was 56% this quarter, a decrease of 370 basis points quarter-over-quarter, while operating leverage was flat.

本季生產率為 56%，季減 370 個基點，而營運槓桿持平。

Moving to Slide 7. that shows the evolution of the common equity Tier 1 ratio and risk-weighted assets during the quarter. The bank's CET1 capital ratio was 12.9% as of January 31, 2024, a decrease of approximately 10 basis points from the prior quarter. The CET1 ratio benefited 45 basis points from earnings, share issuances from the bank's shareholder dividend and share purchase plan and fair value through OCI gains driven by stronger debt and equity markets during the quarter, offset by higher risk-weighted assets of 48 basis points.

轉到幻燈片 7，它顯示了本季普通股一級資本比率和風險加權資產的演變。截至2024年1月31日，該銀行的CET1資本率為12.9%，較上季下降約10個基點。 CET1比率受益於收益、銀行股東股息和股票購買計劃發行的股票以及本季度債務和股票市場走強推動的OCI收益的公允價值，從而使CET1比率上升了45個基點，但被風險加權資產上升48個基點所抵銷。

The RWA increase was primarily driven by the adoption impact of the revised Basel III FRTB market and CVA capital requirements and the 2.5% increase in the capital floor, adding to approximately 70 basis points. The RWA optimization initiatives taken during the quarter including client deselection, reduced the impact to 48 basis points. We expect the RWA optimization efforts to continue during the year in line with our capital allocation strategy, to reduce the impact of the floor.

RWA 的成長主要是由於修訂後的《巴塞爾協議 III》FRTB 市場和 CVA 資本要求的採用影響以及資本底線增加 2.5%（增加約 70 個基點）推動的。本季採取的 RWA 優化措施（包括取消選擇客戶）將影響力降至 48 個基點。我們預計 RWA 優化工作將在今年繼續按照我們的資本配置策略進行，以減少下限的影響。

Turning now to the Q1 business line results beginning on Slide 8. Canadian Banking reported earnings of $1,096 million, an increase of 1% year-over-year as a result of higher revenue, partly offset by higher provision for credit losses and expenses. Year-over-year revenues grew a strong 7% while expense growth was a modest 3%, resulting in positive operating leverage of approximately 4%.

現在轉向從幻燈片 8 開始的第一季業務業績。加拿大銀行業公佈的利潤為 10.96 億美元，同比增長 1%，這是由於收入增加，但部分被信貸損失和費用撥備增加所抵消。營收年增 7%，而費用成長溫和 3%，營運槓桿率為約 4%。

While average loans and acceptances were down about 1% from the prior year, the portfolio mix has changed. We saw continued growth in our high-yielding portfolios as business loans grew 9%, credit cards increased 18% and personal loans grew 2%. This was offset by a decline of 5% in residential mortgage balances.

雖然平均貸款和承兌匯票較上年下降約 1%，但投資組合已發生變化。我們的高收益投資組合持續成長，商業貸款成長 9%，信用卡成長 18%，個人貸款成長 2%。這被住宅抵押貸款餘額下降 5% 所抵消。

We continue to see deposit growth primarily in term products, with average deposits up 2% quarter-over-quarter. Year-over-year deposits grew 9% and the loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 123% from 136% last year. Noninterest income was down 5% year-over-year due to elevated private equity gains in the prior year and loss of income from the sale of our equity interest in Canadian Tire Financial Services. Net interest income increased 11% year-over-year, primarily from solid deposit growth and margin expansion. The net interest margin expanded 30 basis points year-over-year and 9 basis points quarter-over-quarter, benefiting from high loan and deposit margins and changes in business mix.

我們繼續看到存款成長主要集中在定期產品上，平均存款較上季成長 2%。存款年增9%，存貸比由去年的136%提高至123%。由於上一年私募股權收益增加以及出售 Canadian Tire Financial Services 股權帶來的收入損失，非利息收入較去年同期下降 5%。淨利息收入年增 11%，主要得益於存款穩健成長和利潤率擴張。受惠於較高的存貸差和業務結構變化，淨利差較去年同期擴大30個基點，較上季擴大9個基點。

The PCL ratio was 34 basis points, primarily from impaired loan provisions and risk-adjusted margin was 2.2%, up 15 basis points year-over-year. Expenses increased 3% year-over-year, primarily due to higher technology, personnel costs and cost to support business growth. Quarter-over-quarter expenses declined 1%.

PCL比率為34個基點，主要來自減損貸款撥備，風險調整利潤率為2.2%，較去年同期上升15個基點。費用年增 3%，主要是由於技術、人員成本和支援業務成長的成本增加。環比支出下降 1%。

Turning now to Global Wealth Management on Slide 9. Earnings of $374 million declined 4% year-over-year as strong 18% growth within International Wealth was offset by Canadian results declining 8%, largely due to higher expenses, lower trading volumes, offset by growth in asset management. However, net income grew a strong 12% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting improving market conditions.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的全球財富管理。收入 3.74 億美元同比下降 4%，因為國際財富領域 18% 的強勁增長被加拿大業績下降 8% 所抵消，這主要是由於費用增加、交易量減少、抵消資產管理業務的成長。然而，淨利潤環比強勁增長 12%，反映出市場狀況的改善。

Revenue grew 3% year-over-year due, primarily, to higher mutual fund fees across the international businesses and higher brokerage revenues in Canada. Expenses were up 8% year-over-year due, primarily, to the expansion of the sales force, volume-related expenses and cost to support business growth. Spot AUM increased 5% year-over-year to $340 billion as market appreciation was partly offset by net redemptions. AUA increased 8% over the same period to $655 billion from higher net sales and market appreciation.

營收年增 3%，主要是由於國際業務的共同基金費用增加以及加拿大經紀收入的增加。費用年增 8%，主要是由於銷售團隊的擴大、與銷售相關的費用以及支持業務成長的成本。現貨資產管理規模年增 5%，達到 3,400 億美元，因為市場升值被淨贖回部分抵銷。由於較高的淨銷售額和市場升值，AUA 同期成長 8%，達到 6,550 億美元。

Investment fund sales in Canada continued to be under pressure with approximately $13 billion in net redemptions this quarter. However, the majority of Scotia Global Asset Management funds remain in the top 2 quartiles over a 5-year period.

加拿大的投資基金銷售持續面臨壓力，本季淨贖回額約為 130 億美元。然而，豐業環球資產管理公司的大多數基金在五年內仍保持在前四分位。

International Wealth Management generated earnings of $65 million, up 18%, driven by higher mutual fund revenues in Mexico and strong loan and deposit growth across our footprint. AUA and AUM grew 15% and 18%, respectively, year-over-year.

國際財富管理公司的獲利為 6,500 萬美元，成長 18%，這得益於墨西哥共同基金收入的增加以及我們業務範圍內貸款和存款的強勁增長。 AUA 和 AUM 較去年同期分別成長 15% 和 18%。

Turning to Slide 10, Global Banking and Markets. Global Banking and Markets generated earnings of $439 million, down 15% year-over-year, but improved 6% quarter-over-quarter. The U.S. business generated strong earnings of $237 million, up 13% year-over-year. Capital markets revenue was down 12% year-over-year as fixed income revenues were down 22%. However, quarter-over-quarter, Capital Markets revenue grew 12% while owning through the 1-month impact of the proposed Canadian tax rules change to deny the dividend-received deduction of approximately $40 million, which is also expected to impact future quarters. Business Banking revenues declined 5%, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, as loans were down 7% year-over-year.

轉向投影片 10：全球銀行業和市場。全球銀行和市場業務獲利 4.39 億美元，年減 15%，但季增 6%。美國業務實現強勁獲利 2.37 億美元，較去年同期成長 13%。資本市場收入較去年同期下降 12%，固定收益收入下降 22%。然而，資本市場收入環比增長了 12%，同時受到擬議的加拿大稅收規則變更的 1 個月影響，該變更拒絕了約 4000 萬美元的股息收到扣除，預計這也將影響未來幾個季度。商業銀行業務收入較上季和年比均下降 5%，貸款年減 7%。

Noninterest income decreased 2% year-over-year, primarily due to lower fixed income trading related revenue, partly offset by higher underwriting and advisory fees. However, quarter-over-quarter noninterest rate income grew 7%.

非利息收入年減 2%，主要是由於固定收益交易相關收入減少，但部分被承銷和諮詢費用增加所抵銷。然而，非利率收入環比成長 7%。

Net interest income was down 22% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter as a result of lower loan and deposit volumes, lower lending margins and higher trading-related funding costs. Expenses were up a modest 3% quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to seasonally higher share-based compensation. On a year-over-year basis, expenses were only up 4% due mainly to higher personnel costs and technology investments to support business growth. The provision for credit losses decreased $34 million quarter-over-quarter to $5 million. GBM Latin America, which is reported as part of International Banking reported earnings of $372 million, up 24% compared to the prior year as a result of strong revenue growth in capital markets and fee income from business banking across all countries.

由於貸款和存款量下降、貸款利潤率下降以及交易相關融資成本上升，淨利息收入較去年同期下降 22%，季減 11%。費用較上季小幅成長 3%，主要是由於季節性較高的股權薪酬。與去年同期相比，費用僅成長 4%，主要是因為支援業務成長的人員成本和技術投資增加。信貸損失準備金季減 3,400 萬美元，至 500 萬美元。作為國際銀行業務一部分的 GBM 拉丁美洲報告收入為 3.72 億美元，比上年增長 24%，這得益於資本市場收入的強勁增長以及各國商業銀行業務的費用收入。

Moving to Slide 11 for a review of International Banking. My comments that follow are on an adjusted and constant dollar basis. The segment delivered earnings of $752 million, up 35% and $196 million quarter-over-quarter. Revenue was up 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by higher revenues from capital markets. Strong retail revenue growth benefited from margin expansion and 8% higher fees and commissions.

前往投影片 11，回顧一下國際銀行業務。我接下來的評論是在調整後且美元不變的基礎上做出的。該部門獲利 7.52 億美元，季增 35%，季增 1.96 億美元。營收年增 9%，主要受到資本市場收入增加的推動。零售收入的強勁成長得益於利潤率擴張以及費用和佣金上漲 8%。

Year-over-year, loans were down 2%, primarily in Peru, Chile and Colombia. Retail loans grew 4% with mortgages up 6%, while Business banking loans decreased 6%. Deposits grew a strong 5% year-over-year with personal deposits growing 2% and nonpersonal deposits growing 7%. The loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 129% from 140% in the prior year.

貸款年減 2%，主要發生在秘魯、智利和哥倫比亞。零售貸款成長 4%，其中抵押貸款成長 6%，而商業銀行貸款下降 6%。存款較去年同期強勁成長 5%，其中個人存款成長 2%，非個人存款成長 7%。存貸比由上年的140%提高至129%。

Net interest margin expanded 19 basis points quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher asset yields and higher deposit margins. The provision for credit losses was 135 basis points or $574 million, up 16 basis points quarter-over-quarter. This translated to a risk-adjusted margin of 3.23%, an improvement of 7 basis points year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter.

在資產收益率上升和存款利差上升的推動下，淨利差環比擴大19個基點。信貸損失撥備為 135 個基點，即 5.74 億美元，較上季上升 16 個基點。這意味著風險調整後利潤率為 3.23%，年比和環比提高了 7 個基點。

Expenses were up a modest 4% year-over-year driven by business and capital taxes, technology expenses and salaries and benefits. Expenses were up 3% quarter-over-quarter, driven by seasonally higher business taxes in the Caribbean and communication expenses. Operating leverage was a positive 6%.

受營業稅和資本稅、技術費用以及工資和福利的推動，費用較去年小幅增加 4%。受加勒比地區營業稅季節性上漲和通訊費用的推動，費用環比增長 3%。營運槓桿率為正 6%。

Turning to Slide 12, the other segment. The other segment reported an adjusted net loss attributable to equity holders of $474 million, a slight improvement of $13 million compared to the prior quarter mainly due to lower expenses.

轉向投影片 12，另一段。其他部門報告調整後歸屬於股東的淨虧損為 4.74 億美元，與上一季相比略有改善 1,300 萬美元，主要是因為費用減少。

With that, I'll now turn the call over to Phil to discuss risk.

現在，我將把電話轉給菲爾討論風險。

Thank you, Raj. Good morning, everyone. Limited economic growth and higher household expenses persisted through Q1 as a result of sticky inflation. This quarter, all bank PCLs were 50 basis points, driven by the following: One Canadian commercial exposure in the transportation industry; Stage 3 migration in our Canadian retail portfolio; and persistent challenging market conditions in Peru and Colombia. Higher delinquencies across most of our retail portfolios this quarter reflect the challenging macroeconomic environment. Total PCLs of 50 basis points or $962 million are down $294 million quarter-over-quarter. The performing PCL was $20 million or 1 basis point, reflecting both lower loans quarter-over-quarter and no material change in macroeconomic outlook.

謝謝你，拉吉。大家，早安。由於通膨黏性，第一季經濟成長有限，家庭支出持續上升。本季度，所有銀行 PCL 均為 50 個基點，其驅動因素如下： 加拿大在運輸業的商業風險敞口；我們加拿大零售投資組合的第三階段遷移；秘魯和哥倫比亞的市場環境持續充滿挑戰。本季我們大多數零售投資組合的拖欠率較高，反映出宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰。 PCL 總額為 50 個基點或 9.62 億美元，季減 2.94 億美元。表現良好的 PCL 為 2000 萬美元或 1 個基點，反映出貸款環比下降以及宏觀經濟前景沒有重大變化。

Impaired PCLs were $942 million or 49 basis points, up $140 million quarter-over-quarter, largely driven by deterioration in Canadian Automotive Finance, Colombia and Peru. Additionally, Chile has returned to run rate PCL levels now in line with historic norms. We continue to maintain strong allowances on loans and the ACL coverage ratio increased 1 basis point to 86 basis points for the quarter.

受損的 PCL 為 9.42 億美元，即 49 個基點，環比增加 1.4 億美元，主要是由於加拿大汽車金融、哥倫比亞和秘魯的惡化。此外，智利現已恢復 PCL 運作率水平，符合歷史正常水平。我們持續維持強勁的貸款準備金，本季 ACL 覆蓋率增加 1 個基點至 86 個基點。

In Canadian Banking retail, 90-plus day delinquency levels are up 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter and 8 basis points year-over-year to 26 basis points. This is due to increased household expense pressures and borrowing costs. Delinquency is up across all retail products year-over-year. Despite this, credit quality continues to remain strong and average FICO scores remained relatively flat year-over-year at 790.

在加拿大零售銀行業，超過 90 天的拖欠水準較上月上升 1 個基點，較去年同期上升 8 個基點，達到 26 個基點。這是由於家庭支出壓力和借貸成本增加。所有零售產品的拖欠率均逐年上升。儘管如此，信貸品質仍保持強勁，平均 FICO 分數與去年同期相比仍相對持平，為 790。

With the cumulative inflation and interest rate pressures on households, Canadian consumers continue to ease discretionary spending reversing an uptick seen during the holidays. We continue to monitor the number of vulnerable customers in our retail portfolios, which have remained relatively flat quarter-over-quarter.

隨著家庭通膨和利率壓力的累積，加拿大消費者繼續放鬆可自由支配支出，扭轉了假期期間出現的上升趨勢。我們持續監控零售投資組合中的弱勢客戶數量，這些客戶數量較上季保持相對穩定。

Turning to our mortgage portfolio. We remained confident in the performance of our variable rate mortgage product, which has maintained strong credit performance despite unprecedented increases in borrowing costs. Our variable rate mortgage clients have experienced an average increase in mortgage payments of over 50% since rate increases began. Notably, VRM multiproduct clients have lower delinquency across their household balance sheets versus single service and fixed rate mortgage clients.

轉向我們的抵押貸款組合。我們對浮動利率抵押貸款產品的表現仍然充滿信心，儘管借貸成本空前增加，但該產品仍保持強勁的信貸表現。自升息以來，我們的浮動利率抵押貸款客戶的抵押貸款付款平均增加了 50% 以上。值得注意的是，與單一服務和固定利率抵押貸款客戶相比，VRM 多產品客戶的家庭資產負債表拖欠率較低。

Fixed rate mortgage clients have been relatively unimpacted as the majority of renewals occur in 2025 and 2026. Pandemic-driven excess deposits for variable rate mortgage clients have returned to run rate levels with an average of 2x deposit cushion. We are confident in our credit practices and our variable right mortgage portfolio serves as a strong indicator of credit quality across our fixed rate portfolio, as the renewal cycle plays out over the next 2 to 3 years.

固定利率抵押貸款客戶相對未受到影響，因為大多數續約發生在 2025 年和 2026 年。疫情導致的浮動利率抵押貸款客戶的超額存款已恢復到運行利率水平，平均為 2 倍存款緩衝。我們對我們的信貸實踐充滿信心，隨著更新周期在未來 2 至 3 年展開，我們的可變權利抵押貸款組合將成為我們固定利率組合信貸品質的有力指標。

Turning to International Banking. Macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures continue to weigh on our international banking footprint. Having said that, central banks across the region have started to reduce policy rates and expected growth in Mexico remains strong. International Banking's PCLs were $574 million or a PCL ratio of 135 basis points. The increase in PCLs was primarily attributed to retail portfolios across most markets and in particular, Peru and Colombia. As mentioned earlier, Chile saw an expected increase coming off lower provisions in Q4 2023 as the portfolio normalized this quarter.

轉向國際銀行業。宏觀經濟和地緣政治壓力持續影響我們的國際銀行業務。話雖如此，該地區各國央行已開始降低政策利率，墨西哥的預期成長仍然強勁。國際銀行業的 PCL 為 5.74 億美元，PCL 比率為 135 個基點。 PCL 的成長主要歸因於大多數市場的零售投資組合，特別是秘魯和哥倫比亞。如前所述，隨著本季投資組合正常化，智利 2023 年第四季準備金減少，預計將出現成長。

Mexico, as a highly secured retail portfolio, remains resilient with PCLs down quarter-over-quarter and expected strong persistent growth through 2024. As I mentioned earlier, in business banking, the increase in impaired PCLs and GIL this quarter was primarily driven by a single exposure in Canadian commercial, while GBM experienced a net recovery. Our commercial real estate portfolio continues to perform well, and we continue to monitor the market closely.

墨西哥作為一個高度安全的零售投資組合，保持彈性，PCL 環比下降，預計到2024 年將持續強勁增長。正如我之前提到的，在商業銀行業務中，本季度受損PCL 和GIL 的增加主要是由於加拿大商業廣告的單次曝光，而 GBM 經歷了淨復甦。我們的商業房地產投資組合繼續表現良好，我們將繼續密切關注市場。

Heading into 2024, there was optimism that rate cuts in Canada may materialize earlier in the year. However, it appears that forecasted rate cuts may come later and potentially at a slower pace. In our key international markets, we have seen the central banks take action with rate cuts in Peru, Chile and Colombia. This is starting to provide rate relief to clients.

進入 2024 年，人們樂觀地認為加拿大可能會在今年稍早實現降息。然而，預計的降息可能會更晚，而且速度可能會更慢。在我們的主要國際市場，我們看到秘魯、智利和哥倫比亞央行採取降息行動。這開始為客戶提供利率減免。

In the near term, specifically in Peru and Colombia, delinquencies are expected to increase, with economic recovery expected to be more challenged. We are actively monitoring the portfolio and proactively managing our exposures. We expect provisions for credit losses to remain within our full year guidance of 45 to 55 basis points on a full year basis.

短期內，特別是在秘魯和哥倫比亞，拖欠率預計將增加，經濟復甦預計將面臨更大挑戰。我們正在積極監控投資組合併主動管理我們的風險敞口。我們預計信貸損失撥備將維持在全年 45 至 55 個基點的全年指引範圍內。

With the cumulative build of $1.1 billion in total allowances for credit losses over the last 6 quarters, we remain comfortable with our coverage levels, given the secured focus of our retail book and the investment-grade quality of our corporate and commercial.

過去 6 個季度信貸損失準備金總額累計達到 11 億美元，考慮到我們零售帳簿的安全重點以及我們企業和商業的投資級質量，我們對我們的覆蓋水平仍然感到滿意。

With that, I will pass the call back to John for Q&A.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給約翰進行問答。

Great. Thank you, Phil. Operator, please queue up questions from the line.

偉大的。謝謝你，菲爾。接線員，請排隊提問。

The first question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

第一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

I'm going to ask one quick one to start. Given the strong result on CET1 for the quarter and ongoing capital optimization, any kind of updated thoughts on when you may turn off that DRIP discount?

我要請一位快速人士開始。鑑於本季度 CET1 的強勁業績以及持續的資本優化，您對何時可以關閉 DRIP 折扣有何最新想法？

It's Raj. Yes, our capital ratio is very strong at 12.9%. But as we indicated prior both in our Q4 call as well as in other statements we've made in conferences, we'd like to see what OSFI does in June as it relates to the domestic stability buffer, and we'll be guided by that to turn off the DRIP discount that we have in place. But our optimism is definitely increased as we have seen our capital actions feed into the common equity Tier 1 ratio being strong. And we think that once we hear from the Superintendent, in June, we'll be in a much more confident position to turn the DRIP off, which we expect to be quicker than what we thought prior.

是拉吉。是的，我們的資本比率非常高，達到 12.9%。但正如我們之前在第四季度電話會議以及我們在會議上所做的其他聲明中所指出的那樣，我們希望了解 OSFI 在 6 月份會做什麼，因為它與國內穩定緩衝有關，我們將遵循關閉我們現有的DRIP 折扣。但我們的樂觀情緒肯定會增加，因為我們看到我們的資本行動對強勁的普通股一級資本比率產生了影響。我們認為，一旦我們在 6 月收到總監的來信，我們將更有信心關閉 DRIP，我們預計這會比我們之前想像的更快。

Great. Okay. And then second one for me is with respect to the NIM expansion, obviously, a good result this quarter. Just thinking about as you're seeing sort of that funding mix change and then modest loan growth and the way you've continued to position your treasury book to benefit from lower rates. Like is there any reason to think that similar NIM expansion will not continue for the remaining quarters of 2024?

偉大的。好的。對我來說第二個是關於淨利差擴張，顯然，本季取得了不錯的結果。想想你所看到的資金組合的變化，然後適度的貸款成長，以及你繼續定位你的財務帳簿以從較低利率中受益的方式。有沒有理由認為類似的淨利差擴張在 2024 年剩餘季度不會持續？

Yes. Once again, Paul, it's Raj. I'll try to see if I can help you with it. A little bit of color on how we saw the NIM expand during the quarter. Canadian banks NIM went up 9 basis points, almost equally between asset margin expansion and some deposit margin expansion, which we think will be muted going forward. As you know, that is dependent on administrative rate changes, which we don't expect to start happening until Q4. So that should remain flat, maybe a little bit negative to what we saw this quarter as its deposit pricing and term and all that keeps evolving. I think the -- so the margin that the Canadian bank reported 256 basis points will be at or about that range. I don't think it's going to expand too much in the short term.

是的。保羅，又是拉傑。我會盡力看看是否可以幫助你。關於我們如何看待本季淨利差擴張的一些細節。加拿大銀行的淨利差上升了 9 個基點，資產利潤率擴張和部分存款利潤率擴張幾乎持平，我們認為未來這種成長勢頭將會減弱。如您所知，這取決於行政費率的變化，我們預計這種變化要到第四季才會開始發生。因此，這應該保持平穩，也許對我們本季看到的存款定價和期限以及所有不斷變化的情況來說有點負面。我認為，加拿大銀行報告的 256 個基點的利潤率將處於或接近這個範圍。我認為短期內不會擴張太多。

The other component is the International Banking. International Banking significant growth in NIM, as you saw, 19 basis points quarter-over-quarter, a lot of it coming because cost of funds have come down quite rapidly across all those countries. Big rate cuts in Chile, as you saw, grade cuts also happened in Peru and definitely Colombia as well. So cost of funds is a big factor. We'll see how the rate cuts happen and that might help with the international banking NIM. But as far as we think -- next quarter and beyond, we think it will be around the numbers that you saw now, which is about 436 basis points.

另一個組成部分是國際銀行業務。正如您所看到的，國際銀行業務的淨利差顯著增長，環比增長了 19 個基點，其中很大一部分原因是所有這些國家的資金成本下降得相當快。正如您所看到的，智利大幅降息，秘魯也發生了降級，當然哥倫比亞也發生了降息。所以資金成本是一個很大的因素。我們將看看降息如何發生，這可能有助於國際銀行業的淨利差。但就我們而言，下個季度及以後，我們認為這將是您現在看到的數字，大約 436 個基點。

Asset repricing is definitely helping the international bank as their assets continue to reprice at higher rates. So that's a good progress we've seen this quarter. All bank NIM, you saw up 4 basis points quarter-over-quarter. We think there might be some marginal improvement. But the biggest improvements will start coming, Paul, when we see actual rate cuts happen, which we think is likely going to be Q4, so until then I think NIM will slowly expanded the bank, maybe a basis point or 2 quarter after quarter, but not as significantly as it will happen when the rate cuts actually do happen.

資產重新定價無疑對國際銀行有幫助，因為它們的資產繼續以更高的利率重新定價。所以這是我們本季看到的一個很好的進展。所有銀行的淨利差 (NIM) 較上季上升 4 個基點。我們認為可能會有一些邊際改善。但最大的改善將會開始出現，保羅，當我們看到實際降息發生時，我們認為這可能會是第四季度，所以在那之前我認為NIM將慢慢擴大銀行規模，可能是一個基點或兩個季度又一個季度，但不如實際降息時那麼明顯。

The next question is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

Raj, maybe sticking with you on the bank NIM. And where I'm trying to go with this is, I think you've been repositioning treasury to get away from directionally taking a view on rates, but your sensitivities show that you're going to benefit from lower rates. And so I'm trying to get a sense of like how long does that adjustment take? So clearly, if rates come down this year, you're going to benefit. Like when does that repositioning? And like how long are these hedges in place for? Just trying to get a sense of when that pivot is going to eventually occur? Or is this just going to not change?

Raj，也許會和你一起在 NIM 銀行工作。我想說的是，我認為你們一直在重新定位財政部，以避免定向關注利率，但你們的敏感度表明你們將從較低的利率中受益。所以我想了解這種調整需要多長時間？很明顯，如果今年利率下降，您將會受益。例如什麼時候重新定位？這些對沖會持續多久？只是想了解這種轉變最終何時發生？還是這不會改變？

Yes. Thanks, Doug. I think I'll try to help you with that. I think as far as the positioning that we had before, where we had positioned it through our treasury actions to benefit more when rates come down, as you know, 2 quarters back or last year in Q2, we reset it back to being neutral to rate cuts across the curve. Obviously, that's a 100 basis point shift that we talk and we disclose externally. So we're kind of neutral to that.

是的。謝謝，道格。我想我會盡力幫助你。我認為，就我們先前的定位而言，我們透過財務行動將其定位為在利率下降時受益更多，如你所知，在兩個季度前或去年第二季度，我們將其重置為中性利率穿過曲線。顯然，我們談論並對外披露的是 100 個基點的轉變。所以我們對此持中立態度。

Where I think the benefits will start coming is when rate cuts actually happened, like I mentioned. But as far as the hedge benefits go, we had a lot of benefits that we monetized in 2020, and that life is ending sometime in '24. So year-over-year, when you look at it, that tends to be a headwind because we had bigger benefits as a swap expired, say, 12 months back, some of them, and some of them will kind of finish towards the end of this year. So I don't think it's going to be a big headwind going forward. But when you look at it from this quarter to, say, same quarter last year, that's definitely a headwind, which shows up in the other segment.

我認為，正如我所提到的，當降息實際發生時，好處就會開始顯現。但就對沖收益而言，我們在 2020 年獲得了許多貨幣化的收益，而這種生活將在 24 年的某個時候結束。因此，年復一年地看，這往往是一個逆風，因為我們有更大的好處，因為互換到期，比如說 12 個月前，其中一些，其中一些將在年底結束今年的。所以我認為這不會成為未來的一個大阻力。但當你從本季到去年同一季度來看，這絕對是一個逆風，這也出現在其他領域。

The other segment $474 million loss will benefit when our wholesale funding cost comes down, which will track the administrative rate declines. The hedging program, like you mentioned, is going to be more about how do we protect margin going forward and not be as opportunistic as we've been in the past. So we'll position the bank as close to neutral as possible. And then as the balance sheet evolves, we expect to be positioned much better than what we've been in the past.

當我們的批發融資成本下降時，另一個部門的 4.74 億美元損失將受益，這將追蹤行政利率的下降。正如您所提到的，對沖計劃將更多地涉及我們如何保護未來的保證金，而不是像過去那樣投機取巧。因此，我們將把銀行的定位盡可能接近中性。然後，隨著資產負債表的發展，我們預計我們的定位將比過去好得多。

Okay. So there's still some benefit from lower rates. It's not going to be as much as it was before. And really, the focus is to kind of protect margin than directionally take a position.

好的。因此，較低的利率仍然有一些好處。不會像以前那麼多了。事實上，重點是保護利潤，而不是定向持倉。

That's correct. But I think the benefit when the short end of the rate curve comes down. So we're not talking about parallel shift now, which is what should happen because the curve is inverted, but bank will continue to benefit meaningfully, which will show up through other segment when actual rate cuts happen.

這是正確的。但我認為當利率曲線的短端下降時會有好處。因此，我們現在不是在談論平行轉移，這是應該發生的情況，因為曲線是倒掛的，但銀行將繼續有意義地受益，當實際降息發生時，這將透過其他部門體現出來。

Yes. Okay. And then, Scott, you mentioned in your prepared remarks a need to invest in international banking support structure, and I think there are some other items in there. I guess my question is, should we be expecting more expenses to be flowing through international banking over the coming year or 2 years as you reposition that portfolio?

是的。好的。然後，斯科特，您在準備好的發言中提到需要投資國際銀行支援結構，我認為其中還有其他一些項目。我想我的問題是，當您重新定位投資組合時，我們是否應該預期未來一年或兩年內會有更多費用流經國際銀行業務？

Sure. Let me start and then Francisco can add on to that. I mean, one of the things that I was most pleased about this quarter was the international performance. And if you think about the productivity initiatives that we're on and the ability to increase operating leverage to the extent we did on the back of not deploying more capital, I mean it was just a fantastic result in the quarter. .

當然。讓我開始，然後弗朗西斯科可以補充。我的意思是，本季我最滿意的事情之一就是國際表現。如果你考慮我們正在進行的生產力計劃以及在不部署更多資本的情況下將營運槓桿提高到一定程度的能力，我的意思是，這在本季度是一個非常棒的結果。 。

What we talked about a lot was growing our commercial IV business, which we hadn't been focused on before and also growing a multinational business and taking the international business and looking it through a regional lens. And so I think there's a lot of cost opportunity, but there will also be incremental investments that we'll have to do, particularly around cash management as an example. But Francisco, maybe you want to add more on...

我們經常談論的是發展我們的商業靜脈輸液業務，這是我們以前沒有關注過的，同時也發展跨國業務，從區域角度看待國際業務。因此，我認為有許多成本機會，但我們也必須進行增量投資，特別是在現金管理方面。但是弗朗西斯科，也許你想補充更多…

Sure, Scott. A couple of thoughts just reiterating what we explained at Investor Day. In the international bank, we have the capital and the resources we need to execute our 5-year plan. So you should not expect any increases in expenses, but our redirection and optimization of both capital allocation for higher returns and certainly expenses for the right client segmentation, where you will see investments are for global initiatives that will have a corresponding benefit in the international bank.

當然，斯科特。一些想法只是重申我們在投資者日所解釋的內容。在國際銀行，我們擁有執行五年計畫所需的資本和資源。因此，您不應期望費用會增加，但我們會重新調整和優化資本配置以獲得更高的回報，當然還有正確的客戶細分費用，您將看到投資用於全球計劃，這些計劃將在國際銀行中帶來相應的好處。

And in that regard, we highlighted, particularly to of interest and great benefit to International Banking. One is multinational banking as a corporate organization, providing a differentiated service to a particular set of clients that operate with us in multiple countries, and we expect to increase our share of wallet with our client segment sustainably over the 5-year program.

在這方面，我們特別強調了對國際銀行業的興趣和巨大好處。一個是跨國銀行作為一個企業組織，為在多個國家與我們合作的特定客戶群提供差異化服務，我們希望在五年計劃中可持續地增加我們在客戶群中的錢包份額。

And that, again, will benefit not only international, but certainly Canadian clients as well as we focus on the North America corridor. The other one is international cash management of what we defined internally as transaction banking. And there, we intend to build capabilities that allow us to serve these multinational clients with the extension as we connect the onshore capabilities we already have in most of the markets we operate in with international capabilities around cash management. So those will be 2 areas of investment for the group globally that will have a corresponding benefit in International Banking.

這不僅有利於國際客戶，也有利於加拿大客戶以及我們專注於北美走廊的客戶。另一種是國際現金管理，我們內部將其定義為交易銀行業務。在那裡，我們打算建立能力，使我們能夠透過擴展為這些跨國客戶提供服務，因為我們將我們在大多數營運市場中已有的境內能力與圍繞現金管理的國際能力聯繫起來。因此，這將是該集團在全球範圍內的兩個投資領域，並將在國際銀行業中帶來相應的好處。

Now finally, what I would say, if you look at the 5-year plan, we committed to a roll rate reduction of our expenses in International Banking of $800 million. Q1 was a very good example of execution around that expense discipline as we transition into a regional operating model.

最後，我要說的是，如果你看一下五年計劃，我們承諾將國際銀行業務費用的滾動利率削減 8 億美元。當我們過渡到區域營運模式時，第一季是圍繞費用紀律執行的一個很好的例子。

The next question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

So Phil, just a question for you. I appreciate you reiterating the guidance on PCLs of 45 to 55 basis points for the full year. It did, however, feel listening to your comments that we could see some near-term deterioration. Is that -- would that be an appropriate way to characterize what you're expecting in the near term, some weakness and maybe an improvement in the second half of the year. Is that plausible?

菲爾，我想問你一個問題。我感謝您重申全年 PCL 為 45 至 55 個基點的指導。然而，聽了你們的評論，我們確實感覺近期可能會出現一些惡化。這是否是描述您近期預期、下半年的一些弱點以及可能改善的適當方式？這樣合理嗎？

Yes. That's probably the way to think about it, Mario, is if you look at international, we saw rate cuts happen a few quarters ago. So we'll probably see PCL start to peak in Q2 and a little bit into Q3. Then if you look at Canada, obviously, we're going to be reliant upon rate cuts here. So I think it's a tale of 2 halves of the year. We'll probably see things starting to improve towards the latter half of the year into Q3 -- Q4 and then into the early part of 2025.

是的。馬裡奧，這可能是思考這個問題的方式，如果你看看國際市場，我們看到幾個季度前發生了降息。因此，我們可能會看到 PCL 在第二季開始達到峰值，並在第三季稍微達到峰值。那如果你看看加拿大，顯然我們將依賴降息。所以我認為這是一個一年兩半的故事。我們可能會看到情況在今年下半年、第三季、第四季以及 2025 年初開始有所改善。

And then in capital markets, just 2 quick ones there. Could you just talk about what the dividend -- the change in dividend...

然後在資本市場，只有兩個快速的市場。您能談談股息是什麼嗎——股息的變化…

Mario, you've got cut off a little bit. It's Raj. Can you repeat the question on capital markets, Mario, please?

馬裡奧，你的聲音被切斷了一點。是拉吉。馬裡奧，你能重複一下關於資本市場的問題嗎？

Sure. I mentioned how the activity in that business, the business that's impacted by the change in the taxation of Canadian dividends, what activity has been like? Has the activity really dried up? Or are there other products? Or is the activity continue?

當然。我提到了該業務的活動如何，受加拿大股息稅收變化影響的業務，活動是什麼樣的？活動真的枯竭了嗎？或是有其他產品嗎？還是活動繼續？

I think it impacts the equities business, as you would imagine, because it's the equity dividend that has been eliminated for financial services or we expect it to be eliminated effective January 1, the bill is not yet fully passed. So this quarter had a 1-month impact. It's about $40 million to GBM's revenue, primarily in the equities business in Canada, which they burn through in the business and, obviously, has benefited the bank.

我認為這會影響股票業務，正如你想像的那樣，因為金融服務業的股本股息已被取消，或者我們預計它將於 1 月 1 日生效，該法案尚未完全通過。所以這個季度有1個月的影響。 GBM 的收入約為 4000 萬美元，主要來自加拿大的股票業務，他們在該業務中消耗了這些資金，顯然，這使銀行受益。

And for the rest of the year, we think this will be roughly about $180 million to $200 million of NIAT that we have to earn through. We're optimistic that with the good start we've had in the first quarter, that helps in supporting the marginal EPS growth, which we still expect for the whole year, the outlook that we talked about. But definitely more work to be done to ensure that we're able to find the offsets for the -- like I said, $180 million to $200 million of NIAT that we need to find for the next 3 quarters.

在今年剩下的時間裡，我們認為我們必須透過 NIAT 賺取約 1.8 億至 2 億美元的資金。我們樂觀地認為，第一季的良好開局有助於支持每股收益的邊際成長，我們仍然預計全年的成長，即我們談到的前景。但肯定還有更多工作要做，以確保我們能夠為未來 3 個季度需要找到的 1.8 億至 2 億美元的 NIAT 找到補償。

I appreciate that, Raj. I think you were talking there about the tax implications. What I'm thinking more about is client activity. Are clients still active in that equity structured products business that benefited from the tax structure?

我很感激，拉傑。我認為您在那裡談論的是稅收影響。我更多考慮的是客戶活動。客戶是否仍活躍於受益於稅收結構的股權結構性產品業務？

Yes. I think it's a bit of both, Mario. I think some are waiting for the actual dividend laws to be passed. The activity will definitely come down. And that's why we think that there might be some impact to the revenue, but the biggest impact is to the tax line. Because most of these clients do it because they need the hedging program, right, as you can think about. And -- so the cost attached to it will not go up substantially for the benefit that we have had, and we expect that to impact us in the tax line mostly.

是的。我認為兩者兼而有之，馬裡奧。我認為有些人正在等待實際股利法的通過。活躍度一定會下降。這就是為什麼我們認為這可能會對收入產生一些影響，但最大的影響是對稅線的影響。因為大多數客戶這樣做是因為他們需要對沖計劃，對吧，正如你可以想像的那樣。而且 - 因此，與我們所獲得的利益相比，其附加成本不會大幅上升，我們預計這將主要影響我們的稅收額度。

The next question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investments.

下一個問題來自 Veritas Investments 的 Nigel D'Souza。

I had a minor follow-up on NII sensitivity. I've noticed that the benefit you expect to NII from a 100 basis point decline, that benefit is a bit lower this quarter versus your estimates the prior quarter? Just trying to understand why that item seems to be moving around when the declined NII run rates go up, that's staying relatively stable, just to understand both sides of the interest rate sensitivity here.

我對 NII 敏感性進行了一次小型追蹤。我注意到您預期 NII 下降 100 個基點所帶來的收益，本季的收益比您上一季的估計要低一些？只是想了解為什麼當下降的 NII 運行率上升時該項目似乎在移動，它保持相對穩定，只是為了了解這裡利率敏感性的雙方。

Sure, Nigel. It's Raj. Let me see if I can help you with that. As you can imagine, the balance sheet evolves every day, right? As we borrow money and we lend money out and depends on the term we do and whether it's variable rate, fixed rate. So that will have a natural change to the structure, the interest rate positioning of the bank, forget about hedging and how we manage it at the treasury level where we talked about how we want to protect the margin. And we want to keep the bank neutral to the 100 basis points, a parallel shift over there.

當然，奈傑爾。是拉吉。讓我看看是否可以幫助您。正如您可以想像的那樣，資產負債表每天都在變化，對吧？當我們藉錢和借錢時，取決於我們的期限以及是浮動利率還是固定利率。因此，銀行的結構和利率定位將會發生自然的變化，忘記對沖以及我們如何在財政部層級進行管理，我們談到如何保護利潤。我們希望銀行保持中性至 100 個基點，這是一個平行的轉變。

So you'll see from time to time some, and that's what we're seeing this time. It is simply about more term deposits, for example, in Canada, less mortgages, business mix shifts happen not just here, but also in our corporate commercial book as well. So all these only move it around. There's nothing else to look there, Nigel.

所以你時不時會看到一些，這就是我們這次看到的。這只是關於更多的定期存款，例如在加拿大，更少的抵押貸款，業務組合的轉變不僅發生在這裡，而且也發生在我們的企業商業帳簿中。所以所有這些只是移動它。奈傑爾，那裡沒什麼好看的。

Got it. And then just a question on deposit trends. You're seeing an increase in deposit balances in Canadian Banking noted lower discretionary spending. Any comments on what you're seeing in terms of savings rate for households in Canada? And do you expect that to continue to build? Or is there a point where that flips and you start seeing a more meaningful drawdown or runoff of deposits as rates remain elevated?

知道了。然後是關於存款趨勢的問題。您將看到加拿大銀行業的存款餘額增加，但可自由支配支出減少。您所看到的加拿大家庭儲蓄率有何評論？您預計這種情況會持續發展嗎？或者是否存在一個轉折點，隨著利率保持高位，您開始看到更有意義的存款減少或流失？

Aris here. So on deposits, what we're seeing -- last year, we saw the growth, and you heard it from Raj, I think, $30 billion in Canada year-on-year and $6 billion quarter-on-quarter. But what we're seeing is on the day-to-day banking balances and on the savings balances, we're seeing the rotation into term. And that accelerated last quarter, but it's starting to slow down. And we expect to see that continue over the coming quarters as we see consumers increasingly dipping into their day-to-day balances. So on a per customer basis, those balances are shrinking. But overall, the pie is growing, as you see, and the rotation into term as people lock in with the anticipation of rates coming down in the latter part of the year, they're trying to lock into term.

阿里斯在這裡。因此，就存款而言，我們所看到的——去年，我們看到了增長，我想你是從 Raj 那裡聽到的，加拿大的存款同比增長了 300 億美元，環比增長了 60 億美元。但我們看到的是，在日常銀行餘額和儲蓄餘額上，我們看到了輪調。上個季度這一趨勢有所加速，但現在開始放緩。我們預計，隨著消費者越來越多地使用日常餘額，這種情況將在未來幾季繼續下去。因此，從每個客戶的角度來看，這些餘額正在減少。但總的來說，正如你所看到的，蛋糕正在變大，隨著人們鎖定利率在今年下半年下降的預期，他們正試圖鎖定期限。

The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

下一個問題來自國家銀行金融公司的加布里埃爾·德鏈 (Gabriel Dechaine)。

Just want to ask about the GBM LatAm performance. You called it out, $372 million, maybe a record quarter. I just want to address this obvious sustainability questions about that performance. What was going on in the market? And then when I juxtapose that performance against your stated objective of reducing capital to that -- those activities. I'm just wondering how repeatable this performance is, if at all?

只是想問 GBM LatAm 的表現。你喊道，3.72 億美元，也許是創紀錄的季度。我只想解決有關該績效的明顯可持續性問題。市場上發生了什麼事？然後，當我將這種績效與您所宣稱的減少資本的目標並列時——那些活動。我只是想知道這種表演的可重複性如何（如果有的話）？

It's Raj. I'll start on this. Absolutely, you're right. It is a record quarter, $372 million, fantastic performance across all the countries, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Colombia, Brazil everywhere. And what that reflects, Gabe, is not capital increase. It actually has remained flat to lower. You can see it in our disclosures that our loans are actually down $2 billion in GBM LatAm. And that's part of our capital allocation strategy that we talked about. So we're not deviating from that. This is about having capabilities on the ground, which we have invested over many years and harvesting the opportunities when they come by.

是拉吉。我將從這個開始。絕對，你是對的。這是創紀錄的季度，營收達 3.72 億美元，所有國家（墨西哥、秘魯、智利、哥倫比亞、巴西）均表現出色。加布，這反映的並不是資本增加。實際上一直持平甚至走低。您可以從我們的披露中看到，我們在 GBM LatAm 的貸款實際上減少了​​ 20 億美元。這是我們討論的資本配置策略的一部分。所以我們不會偏離這一點。這是關於擁有我們多年來投資的實地能力，並在機會到來時收穫機會。

There's been a lot of interest rate changes in those markets, as you know. There's a lot of FX movements that have happened, which gives us the opportunity to both grow capital markets revenue and derivatives as well as in FX trading operations over there, client-driven, obviously.

如您所知，這些市場的利率發生了許多變化。發生了許多外匯波動，這使我們有機會增加資本市場收入和衍生性商品以及外匯交易業務，顯然是由客戶驅動的。

The third component is there is also significant fee-based income that we have had to -- we had the ability to harvest over there. So it's showing up both in business banking revenues as fee income and capital markets revenues for the activities that I described. It's expected to come back. I think our normal run rate expectation for this business is somewhere between $275 million, maybe as high as $300 million in a normal quarter. We'd love to repeat this quarter, every quarter as possible, but we know that it depends on market opportunities, but it's not about deploying more capital in that region.

第三個組成部分是我們還必須獲得大量基於費用的收入——我們有能力在那裡收穫。因此，它既體現在商業銀行收入中，也就是我所描述的活動的費用收入和資本市場收入。預計會回來。我認為我們對該業務的正常運作率預期在 2.75 億美元之間，正常季度可能高達 3 億美元。我們很樂意在本季、盡可能每季重複，但我們知道這取決於市場機會，而不是在該地區部署更多資本。

What I would add is a couple of thoughts, Francisco here, real quick. One, this is not a deviation from our strategy. So during the quarter, we have fantastic execution of a very strong pipeline on the fee side. But we also had good trading volatility, allowing us to capture P&L, particularly around effects on rates. And that shows the readiness of the team as Raj mentioned, many years of investment in building these capabilities that we intend to continue to develop on the ground and differentiate ourselves.

我想補充的是一些想法，弗朗西斯科在這裡，很快。第一，這並不偏離我們的策略。因此，在本季度，我們在費用方面的管道執行得非常出色。但我們也有良好的交易波動性，使我們能夠捕捉損益，特別是對利率的影響。正如 Raj 所提到的，這表明團隊已經做好準備，多年來我們一直在投資建立這些能力，我們打算繼續在實地發展這些能力，並使自己脫穎而出。

The important element also here to highlight is that the client activity in the quarter were very strong. If that were to repeat again, we will be ready again to capture that opportunity with a focus of continued optimization of our capital returns. And that's why you don't see an increase in capital allocation to Latin America this quarter.

這裡也要強調的一個重要因素是，本季的客戶活動非常強勁。如果這種情況再次發生，我們將再次準備好抓住這個機會，重點是持續優化我們的資本回報。這就是為什麼本季對拉丁美洲的資本配置沒有增加。

Okay. Great. My next question is for Phil on the credit. You called out the Colombia and Peru in your commentary. I'm wondering about Canada actually because that's where we saw the biggest increase in impaired loan loss provisions and the delinquency rates are moving higher, 20 basis points on mortgage. And I don't think they're related necessarily, but the variable rate mortgage book, is there any connection at all between the higher delinquency rates and maybe the affordability of the other credit products that they have?

好的。偉大的。我的下一個問題是問菲爾的信用問題。您在評論中點名了哥倫比亞和秘魯。事實上，我想知道加拿大的情況，因為那是我們看到減損貸款損失撥備增幅最大的地方，而且拖欠率正在走高，抵押貸款增加了 20 個基點。我認為它們不一定相關，但是可變利率抵押貸款書，較高的拖欠率和他們擁有的其他信貸產品的承受能力之間是否有任何联系？

And if not, can you maybe provide some broader commentary on why the auto loan delinquency rates are picking up? I mean, I know higher rates and all that. But if there's any nuance that you can provide to explain that trend and why it might not get worse? Because it seems like I see that now, why won't repeat next quarter and then one after that.

如果沒有，您能否就汽車貸款拖欠率上升的原因提供一些更廣泛的評論？我的意思是，我知道更高的利率等等。但是，您是否可以提供任何細微差別來解釋這一趨勢以及為什麼它可能不會變得更糟？因為我現在似乎明白了這一點，為什麼不在下個季度和之後的一個季度重複呢？

Sure, Gabe. Happy to take that. There's a lot there to unpack. I'll try to remember the different components. Maybe just to go to first because it is a good bellwether for what's going on from a mortgage perspective in for Canada, for the Canadian banks. So delinquency is up. You are seeing 90-day delinquency up in our mortgage portfolio. It's still below -- if you go back to sort of 2020, 2019, it's still below that period, but starting to creep up, as you mentioned. .

當然，加布。很高興接受。有很多東西需要解壓縮。我會盡力記住不同的組成部分。也許只是先看，因為從抵押貸款的角度來看，對於加拿大和加拿大的銀行來說，這是一個很好的風向標。所以違法行為增多了。您會發現我們的抵押貸款組合中 90 天的拖欠率增加。它仍然低於——如果你回到 2020 年、2019 年，它仍然低於那個時期，但正如你所提到的，開始緩慢上升。 。

One of the things we were doing as the results came in was really double-clicking on where the stress is coming from. And it is interesting to note that the VRM customers with other products at the bank have -- actually have lower delinquency than the portfolio averages. So what we're finding is the VRM customers still holding on to a deposit cushions, so 2 -- as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, 2x the deposit cushion now. But they seem to be managing the balances between their payments quite well. And so delinquency is lower on VRM customers with multiproduct than it is across the portfolio.

當結果出來時，我們正在做的事情之一就是雙擊壓力的來源。有趣的是，在銀行擁有其他產品的 VRM 客戶的拖欠率實際上低於投資組合的平均水平。所以我們發現 VRM 客戶仍然持有存款緩衝，所以 2——正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，現在是存款緩衝的 2 倍。但他們似乎很好地管理了付款之間的餘額。因此，使用多種產品的 VRM 客戶的拖欠率低於整個產品組合的拖欠率。

Sort of -- maybe just a pivot there, the second part of the question you asked, which is really around auto. And the interesting thing in that portfolio for you would be, as you recall, during the pandemic, we had lower supply of new auto. And so as a result, there was a pivot to do more used. What we're seeing now is higher delinquency rates coming off the used portfolio rather than the new portfolio. Now that paradigm has shifted as supply chains have come back. And so the portfolio at origination has shifted back more towards new origination, but we're still working through the cohort that was acquired during the pandemic for used customers.

有點——也許只是一個支點，你問的問題的第二部分，實際上是圍繞汽車的。正如您所記得的那樣，該投資組合中有趣的事情是，在大流行期間，我們的新車供應量較低。因此，就有了做更多使用的支點。我們現在看到的是舊投資組合的拖欠率高於新投資組合。現在，隨著供應鏈的恢復，這種模式已經發生了轉變。因此，最初的投資組合已更多地轉向新的起源，但我們仍在研究大流行期間為二手客戶獲得的群體。

And one of the things, I think, we have a benefit of is really learning and developing some of our tools, particularly around the collections activities from our SDA book, which has obviously a large use component to that portfolio. And so we've been really digging in leveraging collections, best practices from SDA. We've deployed a number of digital tools that are really, really helping customers. And we've seen a 4x improvement in some of our repayment rates since we've been deploying these tools. So there's a lot of activities going on, as you can imagine. But I think the sentiment of your question is the right one.

我認為，我們的一個好處是真正學習和發展我們的一些工具，特別是圍繞我們的 SDA 書中的集合活動，這顯然對該組合有很大的使用組成部分。因此，我們一直在努力利用 SDA 的集合和最佳實踐。我們部署了許多真正為客戶提供幫助的數位工具。自從我們部署這些工具以來，我們的一些還款率提高了 4 倍。正如您可以想像的那樣，有很多活動正在進行。但我認為你的問題的觀點是正確的。

And if I sneak another one, auto related, any signs of stress in your dealer customers on the commercial side? I mean I'm seeing a lot of F-150 Lightnings -- lots these days, not the single...

如果我再偷偷透露一份與汽車相關的信息，您的經銷商客戶在商業方面是否有任何壓力跡象？我的意思是我看到了很多 F-150 閃電——這些天很多，但不是單一的…

No problems there. There's nothing of significance on my desk on the commercial portfolio.

那裡沒有問題。我的辦公桌上沒有任何重要的商業投資組合。

The next question is from Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的達科·米赫利奇 (Darko Mihelic)。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups on that, Phil. So sticking with you. With respect to the -- when you mentioned that the variable rate mortgage has 2x deposit cushion, what exactly does that mean? Does that mean that their deposits are still 2x what they were pre-pandemic? Or do you mean something else?

菲爾，只是對此進行一些快速跟進。就這樣一直陪著你。關於——當您提到浮動利率抵押貸款有 2 倍存款緩衝時，這到底是什麼意思？這是否意味著他們的存款仍是疫情前的兩倍？或者你還有別的意思嗎？

No. It means that they have 2 payments in their deposit accounts.

不。這意味著他們的存款帳戶中有 2 筆付款。

Okay. Okay. That's fair. And -- sorry, go ahead.

好的。好的。這還算公平。而且——抱歉，請繼續。

No, no, I was just going to say, maybe as another sort of indicator on the fixed side, it's about 3.5.

不不，我只是想說，也許作為固定方面的另一個指標，大約是 3.5。

Okay. But you mentioned that the delinquency statistics are such that there's very few of the variable rate mortgage customers in the delinquency pool, so they're really coming from the fixed rate. Is that...

好的。但您提到，拖欠統計數據顯示，拖欠池中的可變利率抵押貸款客戶很少，因此他們實際上來自固定利率。就是它...

No, actually, where we're seeing it is on single-service customers. So those customers with 1 product with the bank tend to have -- that's where we're seeing the highest level of stress. And actually, as I was thinking through this, it actually is a testament to the strategy that we put forward last quarter, really focusing on primacy, because actually, what we're seeing is primary customers are running even through this stress period with much less delinquency than single-service customers.

不，實際上，我們看到的是單一服務客戶。因此，那些在銀行擁有一種產品的客戶往往會面臨最大的壓力。實際上，正如我在思考的那樣，這實際上證明了我們上季度提出的策略，真正關注首要地位，因為實際上，我們看到的是主要客戶即使在這個壓力時期也在運行很多與單一服務客戶相比，拖欠率更少。

So single-service customers and broadly speaking, those are fixed rate?

那麼單一服務客戶，從廣義上講，這些都是固定費率嗎？

No, I would say customers with one product with the bank outside of the mortgage portfolio.

不，我想說的是在抵押貸款組合之外擁有銀行一種產品的客戶。

Okay. But the delinquency numbers are then a mix of -- I'm just trying to understand, if we're saying it's 20 basis points of delinquency, what you're suggesting is it's single-service customers, but I don't -- I still don't understand if the breakdown is variable rate or fixed?

好的。但拖欠率數字是一個混合體——我只是想理解，如果我們說這是 20 個基點的拖欠率，那麼你的意思是它是單一服務客戶，但我不——我仍然不明白細分是浮動利率還是固定利率？

Sorry, Darko. I think there's 2 components here. One as I explained it, what we're seeing is -- so there's the entire portfolio and then there's the mortgage portfolio. If I could focus on the mortgage portfolio for a second. We're seeing VRM at 90-plus -- at 26 basis points, fixed at 17%. So just to give you a sense of where the delinquency is coming from. But my point on multiproduct is more at the portfolio level. If I step back away from customers without mortgages, this is a single service customers where we're seeing stress in the portfolio.

對不起，達科。我認為這裡有兩個組成部分。正如我所解釋的，我們看到的是——所以有整個投資組合，然後是抵押貸款投資組合。如果我能關註一下抵押貸款投資組合就好了。我們預期 VRM 為 90 以上，即 26 個基點，固定在 17%。只是為了讓您了解違法行為的根源。但我對多產品的看法比較是在投資組合層面。如果我遠離沒有抵押貸款的客戶，這是單一服務客戶，我們在投資組合中看到了壓力。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And really quickly then, just going back to what you mentioned about Colombia and Peru potentially having some issues. You said you were proactively managing exposures. Can you just put a little color on that? And what should we expect? Should we expect lower balances, some NII impact? Or really, this is just about some sort of portfolio trimming and really just working towards a lower PCL, but no revenue impact?

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後很快，回到你提到的關於哥倫比亞和秘魯可能存在一些問題的問題。您說您正在積極管理風險。能在上面加點顏色嗎？我們該期待什麼？我們是否應該預期餘額會減少，NII 會受到一些影響？或者實際上，這只是某種投資組合削減，實際上只是努力降低 PCL，但對收入沒有影響？

That's exactly right. And I think what Francisco and myself working with the team have been very focused on collections activities, account management activities. So there has been some tightening at the point of originations. We've been focused on certain tactics as it relates to account management, and there's a heightened focus on specialized collections teams, digital offers, loss mitigation tools, enhanced analytics around segmentation in these markets. And -- but I would say, when we look at the numbers, we have seen improvements in the risk-adjusted returns and risk-adjusted margins in these portfolios quarter-over-quarter. So it does seem like we're getting paid for the risk.

完全正確。我認為弗朗西斯科和我自己與團隊的合作非常關注收款活動、帳戶管理活動。因此，在起源點上存在一些收緊。我們一直專注於與客戶管理相關的某些策略，並且高度關注專業收款團隊、數位產品、損失緩解工具、圍繞這些市場細分的增強分析。但我想說，當我們查看這些數字時，我們發現這些投資組合的風險調整回報和風險調整利潤率逐季度有所改善。所以看來我們確實為風險付出了代價。

The next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Just one, I guess, Phil, sticking with you on credit. I think you mentioned that you expect PCLs to peak in the first half driven by international. Just talk to us in terms of ex international in Canada, how you expect PCLs trending? And what are you assuming in terms of the unemployment rate at the end of the year? And shouldn't PCLs -- impaired PCLs in Canada continue to worsen through the rest of the year into '25?

我想，菲爾，只有一個人會賒帳給你。我想您提到您預計 PCL 在國際市場的推動下將在上半年達到頂峰。就加拿大的前國際而言，您對 PCL 的趨勢有何預期？您對年底失業率有何假設？進入 25 年後，加拿大受損的 PCL 不應該繼續惡化嗎？

Yes. I'll just reiterate that we expect to be within the full year guidance of 45 to 55 basis points for the year. I think the impaired loans will definitely be impacted by rates. And I think as we start to see rate decreases, that will be -- there'll be a bit of lag and then we'll start to see that benefit clients, the same way we're seeing it in Latin America. .

是的。我只是重申，我們預計今年的全年指引值將在 45 至 55 個基點之內。我認為減損貸款肯定會受到利率的影響。我認為，當我們開始看到利率下降時，會有一點滯後，然後我們將開始看到這對客戶有利，就像我們在拉丁美洲看到的那樣。 。

In terms of unemployment, in the sub-pack here, it's at 6.4%, but we did have a revision down to 6.1%. And I think the full year forecast we have -- we're using in our models right now for the base case is around the sort of 6.4%, 6.5% range. As I look at -- I'm not sure unemployment is going to be the major driver here because there's a lot of moving parts with immigration. And so we're trying to look beyond the unemployment number and just trying to look at how customers are behaving.

就失業率而言，在此處的分組中，失業率為 6.4%，但我們確實將其下調至 6.1%。我認為我們目前在模型中使用的全年預測基本情況約為 6.4% 至 6.5% 的範圍。據我觀察，我不確定失業是否會成為這裡的主要驅動因素，因為移民會帶來很多改變。因此，我們試圖超越失業數字，只關注客戶的行為。

We've been using a lot of our behavioral analytics models to model out consumer behaviors and consumer patterns. We've also been looking at just sort of spend patterns, what people are spending on and how they're transitioning their spend. So there's a lot of variables we're looking at beyond just the unemployment rate here, just given some of the idiosyncratic events happening in the Canadian macroeconomic landscape. As I said earlier to one of the other -- answer to one of the other questions, I suspect we'll start to see relief in Canada probably in Q3 into Q4 with a more normalized run rate into the latter half of the year and into the beginning of 2025.

我們一直在使用許多行為分析模型來模擬消費者行為和消費者模式。我們也一直在關注某種支出模式、人們的支出以及他們如何轉變支出。因此，考慮到加拿大宏觀經濟格局中發生的一些特殊事件，我們不僅要考慮失業率，還要考慮許多變數。正如我之前對另一個問題所說的那樣——回答其他問題之一，我懷疑我們可能會在第三季度到第四季度開始看到加拿大的情況有所緩解，下半年和進入下半年的運行率將更加正常化。2025 年年初。

And one quick follow-up, Phil. In terms of the variables, how much is -- how much do you look at the 5-year part of the curve versus the overnight rate? Like where we've been having conversations as if the 5-year stays where it is today, despite BoC rate cuts, does that keep the pressure on the consumer spending, et cetera, through next year? Just if you can talk to the sensitivity between those 2 rates.

還有一個快速跟進，菲爾。就變數而言，您如何看待曲線的 5 年期部分與隔夜利率的關係？就像我們一直在討論的那樣，儘管加拿大央行降息，但五年期利率仍保持在今天的水平，這是否會在明年繼續對消費者支出等造成壓力？只要你能談談這兩個比率之間的敏感度。

It's a good question. I think what we'll see is I suspect maybe step back and look at it from a credit perspective. I suspect with the VRM book, you'll start to see some further stress in that portfolio into Q2 into Q3. And it will be really the Bank of Canada rate decreases that will start to pull in and have the biggest impact to the clients.

這是一個好問題。我認為我們會看到的是，我懷疑可能會退後一步，從信用的角度來看待它。我懷疑透過 VRM 書，您將開始看到第二季到第三季該投資組合中的一些進一步壓力。實際上，加拿大央行的降息將開始拉動並對客戶產生最大的影響。

The next question is from Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Sohrab Movahedi。

Two quickies. Raj, overall tax rate has been under 22% for a couple of quarters. What is the right number, do you think, looking ahead?

兩個快手。 Raj，幾季的總體稅率一直低於 22%。展望未來，您認為正確的數字是多少？

I think we should get to around 21%, I think, in the next couple of quarters, Sohrab. So for the whole year, it will still be probably between 20% and 21%. Lots of moving parts, right, across...

Sohrab，我認為在接下來的幾個季度我們應該會達到 21% 左右。所以全年來看，大概還是在20%到21%之間。有很多移動部件，對，橫跨...

And then you called out revenue growth year-over-year, 5%. What do you think that revenue growth is going to look like balance of the year? And what would be the contributors? There's obviously puts and takes. You've got balance sheet kind of maybe RWA optimization, what's happening with fees, NIM? Just get a sense of what that revenue growth of -- to look like balance of the year?

然後你提到營收年增 5%。您認為今年餘下的營收成長情況如何？貢獻者是什麼？顯然有放和取。你的資產負債表可能是 RWA 優化，費用怎麼樣，NIM？看看今年餘額的收入成長如何？

I think revenue growth should continue to be positive, and I think about it sequentially, obviously, in a shorter quarter, next quarter and ignoring that bit. Because we talked about net interest margin continuing to improve in the bank a basis point on $800 billion of earnings is a simple math over there. We don't expect too much loan growth in Q2, but we expect the second half to be stronger than the first half, sequential growth both in Canada as well as in International Banking.

我認為營收成長應該繼續呈正成長，而且我顯然是在較短的季度、下個季度中按順序考慮這一點，並忽略這一點。因為我們談到銀行的淨利差持續改善，所以 8,000 億美元收益的基點在那邊是一個簡單的數學計算。我們預計第二季的貸款成長不會太多，但我們預計下半年加拿大和國際銀行業的環比成長將強於上半年。

So that should help with NII. NII, like you mentioned, fee income and trading operations completely depend upon market opportunities. We've had a great start to the year, which would help for -- as we think about the whole year, but sequentially, that's a little hard to predict, as you can imagine. But revenue growth is something that we expect to see for the remaining 3 quarters across the business lines and therefore, benefit the bank as a full.

所以這應該對 NII 有幫助。 NII，就像您提到的，手續費收入和交易操作完全取決於市場機會。我們今年有一個良好的開端，這將有助於——當我們思考全年時，但正如你可以想像的那樣，這有點難以預測。但我們預計剩餘 3 個季度各業務線的收入都會成長，因此，這將使銀行整體受益。

GBM is the only one I would be a little cautious because it depends on market activity. But the one I'd call out really is wealth management. As the markets have improved, we have seen quarter-over-quarter improvement in wealth even in Q1. I think that will continue as the markets remain -- hopefully get better, particularly with the rate situation, helping our debt portfolio and the assets under management and the equity markets, as they remain strong that would help [growth of our revenues]. So it should be a good news...

GBM 是我唯一會有點謹慎的選擇，因為它取決於市場活動。但我真正要指出的是財富管理。隨著市場的改善，我們甚至在第一季就看到財富的季度環比改善。我認為這種情況將持續下去，因為市場仍然存在，希望變得更好，特別是在利率情況下，幫助我們的債務投資組合和管理下的資產以及股票市場，因為它們仍然強勁，這將有助於[我們收入的成長]。所以這應該是個好消息...

There are no further questions on the line. I would like to turn back the meeting over to Mr. Raj Viswanathan.

線路上沒有其他問題。我想將會議轉交給拉吉·維斯瓦納坦先生。

Well, thank you very much. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank everyone for participating in our call today. We look forward to speaking to you again at our Q2 call in May. This concludes our first quarter results call, and have a great day.

好的，謝謝。我謹代表整個管理團隊感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待在五月的第二季電話會議上再次與您交談。我們的第一季業績電話會議到此結束，祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。