Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2023 Fourth Quarter Results Presentation. My name is John McCartney, and I'm Head of Investor Relations here at Scotiabank. Presenting to you this morning are Scott Thomson, Scotiabank's President and Chief Executive Officer; Raj Viswanathan, our Chief Financial Officer; and Phil Thomas, our Chief Risk Officer. Following our comments, we will be glad to take your questions. Also present to take questions are the following Scotiabank executives: Aris Bogdaneris from Canadian Banking; Glen Gowland from Global Wealth Management; Francisco Aristeguieta from International Banking; and Jake Lawrence from Global Banking and Markets.

早安，歡迎來到豐業銀行 2023 年第四季業績發表會。我叫約翰‧麥卡尼，是豐業銀行投資人關係主管。今天早上向您介紹的是豐業銀行總裁兼執行長 Scott Thomson； Raj Viswanathan，我們的財務長；以及我們的首席風險長 Phil Thomas。根據我們的評論，我們將很高興回答您的問題。出席提問的還有以下豐業銀行主管： 加拿大銀行業的 Aris Bogdaneris；全球財富管理公司的 Glen Gowland；來自國際銀行業的 Francisco Aristeguieta；和來自全球銀行與市場的傑克勞倫斯。

Before we start and on behalf of those speaking today, I'll refer you to Slide 2 of our presentation, which contains Scotiabank's caution regarding forward-looking statements. With that, I will turn the call over to Scott.

在我們開始之前，我代表今天的發言者，請您參閱我們簡報的投影片 2，其中包含豐業銀行對前瞻性陳述的警告。這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. This month marks the completion of my first year in this role as President. I'm pleased to have had the opportunity to spend the year listening to and learning from our shareholders, clients and employees. I have seen personally the passion and commitment that Scotia bankers across the footprint have to making us a better bank. Our results for the year reflect a period of decelerating industry loan growth as well as our own deliberate actions to focus on balanced growth and a thoughtful approach to improving the profitability of our businesses and client relationships. We have made significant progress on key initiatives that are fundamental to strengthening our balance sheet and improving our business mix. Both will be important as we embark on our next phase of growth. The bank reported adjusted earnings of $8.4 billion or $6.54 per share in fiscal 2023. Our return on equity was 11.7%. We believe our improved balance sheet strength and liquidity positions us to manage through potentially a more difficult economic scenario that could materialize. We took actions to strengthen our capital position to meet my January 2023 commitment to a CET1 ratio of greater than 12%, up from 11.5% at this time last year. Raj will explain in more detail the impact of the regulatory capital changes, which began in Q2 and will continue to impact us in the future. We also bolstered liquidity over the course of the year, meaningfully improving the liquidity coverage ratio to 136%, up from 119% and the net stable funding ratio from 111% to 116%. Importantly, we made progress focusing the organization on deposits. Deposits across the bank increased 9% year-over-year. The all bank loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 110% from 116%, resulting in the wholesale funding ratio dropping 100 basis points year-over-year to 20.6%. 2023 reflects early success in our enterprise-wide focus on thoughtfully growing both sides of the balance sheet. In keeping with our commitment to ensure the bank is well positioned to manage through periods of slow growth and uncertain macroeconomic times, we have significantly increased the allowances for credit losses throughout the year across all portfolios by approximately $1.1 billion, mostly in performing allowances. As previously announced, in conjunction with our strategy review process, we made adjustments to our global workforce in the fourth quarter. This productivity effort reflects a continuation of the bank's long-term commitment to achieving positive operating leverage while ensuring the appropriate resource allocation in support of our future growth initiatives.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。這個月標誌著我擔任總統的第一年的結束。我很高興有機會在這一年裡傾聽我們的股東、客戶和員工的意見並向他們學習。我親眼目睹了豐業銀行各地銀行家的熱情和承諾，使我們成為更好的銀行。我們今年的業績反映了行業貸款成長放緩的時期，以及我們自己專注於平衡成長的深思熟慮的行動以及提高我們業務和客戶關係盈利能力的深思熟慮的方法。我們在關鍵舉措上取得了重大進展，這些舉措對於加強我們的資產負債表和改善我們的業務組合至關重要。當我們開始下一階段的成長時，兩者都非常重要。該銀行公佈的 2023 財年調整後收益為 84 億美元，即每股 6.54 美元。我們的股本回報率為 11.7%。我們相信，我們改善的資產負債表實力和流動性使我們能夠應對可能出現的更困難的經濟情況。我們採取行動加強我們的資本狀況，以實現我在 2023 年 1 月做出的​​承諾，即 CET1 比率高於 12%，高於去年同期的 11.5%。 Raj 將更詳細地解釋從第二季開始並將在未來繼續影響我們的監管資本變化的影響。全年我們也加強了流動性，流動性覆蓋率從 119% 顯著提高到 136%，淨穩定資金比率從 111% 提高到 116%。重要的是，我們在將組織重點放在存款方面取得了進展。全行各項存款較去年同期成長9%。全銀行貸存比從116%提高至110%，導致批發融資比率年減100個基點至20.6%。 2023 年反映了我們在整個企業範圍內對資產負債表兩側的深思熟慮的關注取得了早期成功。為了履行我們的承諾，確保銀行能夠很好地應對成長緩慢和不確定的宏觀經濟時期，我們將全年所有投資組合的信貸損失準備金大幅增加了約11 億美元，其中大部分是履約準備金。正如先前宣布的，結合我們的策略審查流程，我們在第四季度對全球員工隊伍進行了調整。這種生產力努力反映了銀行長期致力於實現積極的營運槓桿，同時確保適當的資源分配以支持我們未來的成長計畫。

Turning to our economic outlook. Our base case assumption is that economic growth will continue to moderate in the near term in North America. Higher interest rates are having Central Bank's desired economic impact, which we are seeing through moderating inflation and our own clients' behavior. Recognizing that rates could remain elevated for the foreseeable future, we do expect some interest rate easing in North America later next year, which will be a tailwind to our profitability. Our international banking markets experienced more notable impacts of higher rates given an earlier and more rapid tightening response to inflation in the cycle. Chile and Peru are currently in the midst of modest economic contractions and have seen Central Bank easing this past quarter. Economic growth is expected to rebound in the region later next year. Mexico has consistently seen GDP growth beyond expectations. Currently forecast to deliver 3.5% growth this year and 3% plus growth again next year, significantly outpacing the sub-1% growth expected for Canada and the U.S.

轉向我們的經濟前景。我們的基本假設是北美經濟成長短期內將持續放緩。較高的利率正在產生央行所期望的經濟影響，我們透過緩和通膨和我們客戶的行為看到了這一點。認識到利率在可預見的未來可能會保持在高位，我們預計北美明年晚些時候會出現一些利率寬鬆，這將有利於我們的獲利能力。鑑於週期中對通膨的更早、更迅速的緊縮反應，我們的國際銀行市場經歷了更高利率的更顯著影響。智利和秘魯目前正處於經濟溫和收縮之中，央行在上個季度實施了寬鬆政策。預計該地區的經濟成長將於明年稍後出現反彈。墨西哥的 GDP 成長一直超乎預期。目前預計今年將實現 3.5% 的成長，明年將再次實現 3% 以上的成長，大大超過加拿大和美國低於 1% 的成長預期。

We expect consumer spending to moderate at this higher rate environment persists, leading to the very modest growth in our Canadian economic forecast. Our current balance sheet strength, structural interest rate positioning and deliberate approach to loan growth reflect our cautious near-term outlook. We look forward to sharing detailed business line strategic plans with you at our upcoming Investor Day, so I will be brief today with a few updates on each business. In Canadian Banking, the performing ACL build materially impacted our profitability in Q4. However, I was encouraged by progress in certain key operating performance metrics. Deposits, up 10% year-over-year in Q4, outpaced loan growth in the Canadian Bank for the fourth consecutive quarter, resulting in notable early progress in reducing our loan-to-deposit ratio, which moved from 138% to 125% over the course of the year. Solid net interest margin expansion of 21 basis points, benefiting from higher deposit growth, loans repricing at higher rates and business mix changes driven by more balanced loan growth across products.

我們預期消費者支出將在這種較高利率環境持續下去的情況下放緩，導致我們對加拿大經濟預測的成長非常溫和。我們目前的資產負債表實力、結構性利率定位和審慎的貸款成長方式反映了我們謹慎的近期前景。我們期待在即將到來的投資者日與您分享詳細的業務線策略計劃，因此我今天將簡要介紹每項業務的一些最新情況。在加拿大銀行業，表現出色的 ACL 建設對我們第四季的獲利能力產生了重大影響。然而，我對某些關鍵營運績效指標的進展感到鼓舞。第四季存款年增10%，連續第四個季度超過了加拿大銀行的貸款成長，導致我們在降低貸存比率方面取得了顯著的早期進展，貸存比率從2017 年的138% 降至125 %。這一年的歷程。淨利差穩健成長 21 個基點，受益於較高的存款成長、較高利率的貸款重新定價以及各產品貸款成長更均衡推動的業務結構變化。

In retail, growth in the Scene+ loyalty program continues to outpace expectations, surpassing 14 million members this quarter. The program continues to accelerate as a strong customer growth engine responsible for over half our new-to-bank customers in the recent quarter. New day-to-day account acquisition is up 6% year-over-year, aligned to our commitment to grow everyday banking relationships. Tangerine delivered another year of strong earnings, a result of its strong deposit position and continues to widen its lead as J.D. Power's #1 ranked bank in its class for retail banking client satisfaction for the 12th year in a row. Global Wealth results this quarter reflect the impact of more challenged market performance in recent months and the resulting impact on investment industry fund flows, which have been negative throughout 2023. We continue to broaden what is already a very robust product offering with the announcement last month of a new alternative asset partnership with Sun Life to bring a more complete offering of private credit, real estate and infrastructure products to our high net worth clients. We have a differentiated wealth offering in Canada through our total wealth advice model and a unique international opportunity that our team is delivering on.

在零售業，Scene+ 忠誠度計畫的成長持續超出預期，本季會員人數超過 1,400 萬人。該計劃作為強大的客戶成長引擎，繼續加速發展，近季度超過一半的新銀行客戶都來自該計劃。新的日常帳戶獲取量年增 6%，符合我們發展日常銀行業務關係的承諾。 Tangerine 憑藉強勁的存款頭寸，再次實現強勁盈利，並連續 12 年在 J.D. Power 零售銀行客戶滿意度同類銀行中排名第一，繼續擴大領先優勢。本季的全球財富結果反映了近幾個月來市場表現更加嚴峻的影響，以及由此對投資行業資金流產生的影響，投資行業資金流在2023 年全年一直為負。我們在上個月宣布的公告中繼續擴大已經非常強勁的產品範圍與永明金融建立新的另類資產合作夥伴關係，為我們的高淨值客戶提供更完整的私人信貸、房地產和基礎設施產品。透過我們的整體財富建議模式和我們的團隊正在提供的獨特的國際機會，我們在加拿大提供差異化的財富服務。

Our International Wealth Management business delivered double-digit earnings growth again this year. Our Global Banking and Markets business has delivered resilient results in a challenging year for Capital Markets businesses while continuing to add product capabilities and sectorial advisory expertise. Loan growth has moderated considerably in recent quarters as our GBM team continues to take a more targeted approach to client selection with a focus on industries and geographies where we can deliver higher returns and more multiproduct value-add to our clients. We continue to target deeper client relationships and leverage our footprint to grow our business. International Banking had a solid 2023. Results were negatively impacted by higher PCLs and moderating capital markets activity, offset somewhat by encouraging margin expansion and continued momentum in our deposit strong Caribbean franchise. Deposit growth in Q4 continued, up 3% quarter-over-quarter and 9% year-over-year. This, combined with a more disciplined approach to loan growth has seen our loan-to-deposit ratio improve from 140% to 129%. Despite inflationary pressures, International Banking held expense growth to a modest 3% on a constant dollar basis for the year as a result of continuous efforts to rationalize our operations and further digitize the bank. International Banking continued to deliver positive operating leverage. Our 2023 financial results reflect a year of transition, economic transition in the markets in which we operate and transition within the bank as we prepare for our next phase of growth. We are seeing early signs of progress across the bank on the strategic priorities previously outlined that will lead us to more consistent earnings growth over time, more specifically, client primacy, earning a greater share of the client wallet with a focus beyond the balance sheet. Disciplined capital allocation, managing resources with a view to value over volume and operational excellence, a continuous focus on productivity, process simplification and a relentless effort to build a culture that will give us competitive advantage, better, faster and at a lower cost, all underpinned by a strong balance sheet, ample liquidity and appropriate allowances for credit losses.

我們的國際財富管理業務今年再次實現兩位數的獲利成長。我們的全球銀行和市場業務在資本市場業務充滿挑戰的一年中取得了富有彈性的業績，同時繼續增強產品能力和行業諮詢專業知識。在最近幾個季度，貸款成長大幅放緩，因為我們的 GBM 團隊繼續採取更有針對性的客戶選擇方法，重點關注我們可以為客戶提供更高回報和更多多產品增值的行業和地區。我們繼續致力於建立更深入的客戶關係，並利用我們的足跡來發展我們的業務。國際銀行業務 2023 年業績穩健。業績受到 PCL 上升和資本市場活動放緩的負面影響，但鼓勵利潤率擴張和我們強勁的加勒比存款業務的持續勢頭在一定程度上抵消了這一影響。第四季存款持續成長，季增 3%，年增 9%。再加上更嚴格的貸款成長方式，我們的貸存比從 140% 提高到 129%。儘管存在通膨壓力，但由於我們不斷努力合理化營運並進一步實現銀行數位化，國際銀行業務部今年以美元不變價格計算的費用增長保持在 3%。國際銀行業務持續提供積極的經營槓桿。我們 2023 年的財務表現反映了轉型的一年、我們經營所在市場的經濟轉型以及銀行內部的轉型，為下一階段的成長做準備。我們看到整個銀行在先前概述的戰略優先事項上取得進展的早期跡象，這將使我們隨著時間的推移實現更穩定的盈利增長，更具體地說，客戶至上，在資產負債表之外的重點上贏得更大的客戶錢包份額。嚴格的資本配置、以價值高於數量和卓越運營的方式管理資源、持續關註生產力、流程簡化以及不懈努力建立一種文化，使我們能夠以更好、更快和更低的成本獲得競爭優勢，所有這些強勁的資產負債表、充足的流動性和適當的信貸損失準備金為支撐。

I am encouraged by the franchise strength across our businesses. We are recognized again this year by the Banker Magazine, with both the Bank of the Year in Canada award and the Global Award for banking in the community, recognizing our ScotiaRISE program and the positive impact it is having in our communities. The bank is also a recognized leader for our commitment to fostering a more sustainable and inclusive future for our stakeholders. We are recognized by Global Finance with 5 awards for leadership in sustainable finance, including global leadership and sustainability transparency and Best Bank for Sustainable Finance in Canada. And we continue to build our position as an employer of choice.

我對我們各業務的特許經營實力感到鼓舞。今年，我們再次獲得《銀行家》雜誌的認可，榮獲加拿大年度銀行獎和社區銀行全球獎，認可了我們的 ScotiaRISE 計劃及其對我們社區的積極影響。該銀行也是公認的領導者，因為我們致力於為利害關係人創造更永續和包容的未來。我們因在永續金融領域的領導地位而獲得《全球金融》雜誌的認可，榮獲 5 項獎項，包括全球領導力和永續發展透明度獎以及加拿大最佳永續金融銀行獎。我們將繼續鞏固我們作為首選雇主的地位。

This year, we were recognized as one of the best workplaces in Canada by Great Places to Work and we are once again included in the Bloomberg Gender Equality Index for a sixth consecutive year. Going forward, as we focus on execution of our strategy and the cohesive enterprise-wide mindset to meeting the needs of our clients, we've also made important senior leadership additions to the bank. I'm confident in this strengthened leadership team as we focus on the future and our plans to deliver sustainable, profitable growth for our shareholders.

今年，我們被 Great Places to Work 評為加拿大最佳工作場所之一，並連續第六年入選彭博性別平等指數。展望未來，當我們專注於策略的執行和整個企業範圍內的凝聚力思維以滿足客戶的需求時，我們也為銀行增加了重要的高階領導層。我對這個加強的領導團隊充滿信心，因為我們專注於未來和為股東實現可持續、獲利成長的計劃。

I would like to sincerely thank Glen Gowland for his contribution since joining the bank over 20 years ago. I am delighted that we will continue to benefit from his expertise as the transition to the role of Vice Chair reporting directly to me.

我衷心感謝 Glen Gowland 自 20 多年前加入銀行以來所做的貢獻。我很高興我們將繼續受益於他的專業知識，過渡到直接向我報告的副主席一職。

As previously announced, Jacqui Allard will assume the role of Group Head Global Wealth Management on December 1 this year. I realize 2023 has been a difficult year financially, but the actions taken have been decisive, deliberate and necessary. A strong balance sheet, our relentless focus on becoming more efficient and appropriate allowances will set the bank up for success going forward.

正如先前宣布的，Jacqui Allard 將於今年 12 月 1 日出任全球財富管理集團主管。我意識到 2023 年在財務上是困難的一年，但所採取的行動是果斷的、深思熟慮的和必要的。強大的資產負債表以及我們對提高效率和適當津貼的不懈關注將為銀行未來的成功奠定基礎。

As I look to 2024, I am confident earnings will increase driven by benefits from the productivity initiatives and a more stable rate environment. We look forward to sharing our new strategy at our Investor Day on December 13. With that, I will turn the call over to Raj for a detailed financial of our results.

展望 2024 年，我相信在生產力計劃和更穩定的利率環境的推動下，獲利將會成長。我們期待在 12 月 13 日的投資者日分享我們的新策略。屆時，我將電話轉給 Raj，以了解我們業績的詳細財務資訊。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. This quarter's net income was impacted by adjusting items of $289 million after tax or $0.24 of earnings per share, about 6 basis points on the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio, all of which were recorded in the Other segment. This consisted of a $258 million restructuring charge relating to workforce reductions, a $63 million charge related to the exit of certain real estate and service contracts a $159 million impairment charge to the bank's investment in Bank of Xi'an, a $114 million impairment of certain software. These were partly offset by a $319 million gain from the sale of the bank's 20% equity interest in Canadian Tire Financial Services. The full year results were also impacted by the $579 million Canada recovery dividend recorded in Q1 2023. All my comments that follow will be after adjusting for these items in the usual acquisition-related costs on a year-over-year basis unless specified otherwise.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。本季的淨利潤受到 2.89 億美元稅後調整項目或 0.24 美元每股收益的影響，約為普通股一級資本比率 6 個基點，所有這些都記錄在其他部門。 This consisted of a $258 million restructuring charge relating to workforce reductions, a $63 million charge related to the exit of certain real estate and service contracts a $159 million impairment charge to the bank's investment in Bank of Xi'an, a $114 million impairment of certain軟體.這些收益被該銀行出售 Canadian Tire Financial Services 20% 股權所獲得的 3.19 億美元收益部分抵銷。全年業績也受到 2023 年第一季記錄的 5.79 億加元加拿大復甦股息的影響。除非另有說明，我接下來的所有評論都將在逐年調整通常收購相關成本中的這些項目之後進行。

Starting on Slide 5 on fiscal 2023 performance. The bank ended the year with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $6.54 and a return on equity of 11.7%. Revenue was up 1% and expenses increased 9%, resulting in negative operating leverage of 8.3% for the year. Provision for credit losses were $3.4 billion in 2023, approximately $2 billion higher, of which over $1 billion was performing allowance build. Phil will speak to this later. Canadian Banking earnings were $4 billion, down $757 million or 16%, primarily due to higher provision for credit losses that increased by $1.2 billion while revenues grew a strong 7%.

從投影片 5 開始介紹 2023 財年的業績。該銀行年底調整後稀釋每股收益為 6.54 美元，股本回報率為 11.7%。營收成長 1%，支出成長 9%，導致全年營運槓桿率為 8.3%。 2023 年信貸損失準備金為 34 億美元，比前一年增加約 20 億美元，其中超過 10 億美元用於準備金建設。菲爾稍後會談到這一點。加拿大銀行業獲利為 40 億加元，下降 7.57 億加元，或 16%，主要是由於信貸損失準備金增加了 12 億加元，而收入強勁增長了 7%。

International Banking earnings were $2.5 billion, down 4% on a constant dollar basis. Revenues were up $710 million or a strong 7% while provision for credit losses increased $638 million. Global Wealth Management earnings of $1.5 billion were down $126 million or 8% as a result of a very challenging market environment.

國際銀行業務獲利為 25 億美元，以美元不變匯率計算下降 4%。營收成長 7.1 億美元，增幅達 7%，而信貸損失撥備增加 6.38 億美元。由於市場環境極具挑戰性，全球財富管理收入 15 億美元下降了 1.26 億美元，成長 8%。

Canadian Wealth was down 12%, impacted by lower fee income, while International Wealth earnings grew 19%. Global Banking and Markets reported earnings of $1.8 billion, down $143 million or 7%. Even in a slow capital markets environment, revenues grew 7%, but expenses were up 15% to support business growth initiatives. The provision for credit losses were higher by $167 million compared to the prior year. The other segment reported a net loss of $1.4 billion compared to a loss of $229 million in 2022. The higher loss of approximately $1.2 billion was due to lower revenues driven by higher funding costs and lower investment gains that were partly offset by higher income from liquid assets. The segment had some offsetting benefits from a lower provision for taxes and lower noninterest expenses. The bank's earnings in 2024 are expected to benefit from strong net interest income growth, while noninterest revenues are expected to grow modestly. Loan growth is expected to be modest; however, we expect the benefits of repricing to support net interest margin expansion. Expense growth is expected to moderate largely in line with the inflation as strategic investments are mostly offset by efficiency savings. The bank expects to generate positive operating leverage in 2024. The bank's earnings is expected to improve marginally this year despite higher PCLs and a higher tax rate with first half profitability improving from the current quarter and the second half of the year being stronger than the push.

受費用收入下降的影響，加拿大財富收入下降了 12%，而國際財富收入增加了 19%。全球銀行和市場報告獲利 18 億美元，下降 1.43 億美元，或 7%。即使在資本市場緩慢的環境下，收入仍成長 7%，但為了支持業務成長計劃，支出成長了 15%。信貸損失撥備比前一年增加了 1.67 億美元。其他部門的淨虧損為 14 億美元，而 2022 年為虧損 2.29 億美元。虧損約 12 億美元，原因是融資成本上升和投資收益下降導致收入下降，但流動性收入增加部分抵消了收入下降。資產。該部門因稅收撥備減少和非利息支出減少而獲得了一些抵消效益。該銀行2024年的獲利預計將受益於強勁的淨利息收入成長，而非利息收入預計將溫和成長。預期貸款成長溫和；然而，我們預計重新定價的好處將支持淨利差擴大。由於策略投資大部分被效率節省所抵消，預計支出成長將在很大程度上與通貨膨脹保持一致。該銀行預計將在2024 年產生正的營運槓桿。儘管PCL 較高且稅率較高，但該銀行今年的盈利預計將小幅改善，上半年盈利能力較本季度有所改善，下半年盈利能力強於推動力。

Moving to Slide 6 for a review of the fourth quarter results. The bank reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $1.7 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.26. The return on equity was 8.9%. Net interest income was $4.7 billion, up 1% year-over-year and 2% quarter-over-quarter from a 6 basis point margin expansion from higher lending margins and business mix changes, including deposit growth across all business lines. Deposit growth outpaced loan growth again this quarter resulting in a loan-to-deposit ratio of 110% compared to 116% in the prior year. Noninterest income was $3.3 billion, down 3% year-over-year mainly due to lower trading revenues and investment gains, offset by higher fee and commission and wealth management revenues. The provision for credit losses increased $437 million or 53% from the last quarter, driven by higher performing loan provisions, which were $454 million this quarter. The PCL ratio was 65 basis points this quarter, of which 23 basis points were performing PCLs.

轉到投影片 6，回顧第四季的業績。該銀行報告季度調整後收益為 17 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.26 美元。股本回報率為8.9%。淨利息收入為 47 億美元，年增 1%，環比增長 2%，由於貸款利潤率提高和業務組合變化（包括所有業務線的存款增長），利潤率擴大了 6 個基點。本季存款成長再次超過貸款成長，貸存比率達到 110%，而去年同期為 116%。非利息收入為33億美元，年減3%，主要是因為交易收入和投資收益減少，但被手續費及佣金和財富管理收入增加所抵銷。信貸損失準備金比上季增加了 4.37 億美元，即 53%，這得益於本季貸款準備金表現較好，貸款準備金為 4.54 億美元。本季 PCL 比率為 65 個基點，其中 23 個基點為執行 PCL。

Quarter-over-quarter expenses were up 4%, mainly from higher technology costs, performance-based compensation and professional fees. Expenses increased 10% year-over-year or 7% excluding the unfavorable impact of foreign currency translation, reflecting higher staffing-related costs, technology costs and performance and share-based compensation. The productivity ratio was 59.5% this quarter, an increase of 340 basis points quarter-over-quarter. The effective tax rate was 14.7% this quarter compared to 17.6% a year ago, driven by higher tax exempt income and higher income from lower tax jurisdictions partly offsetting an increase in the bank's tax free -- tax rate and lower inflationary adjustments.

費用較上季成長 4%，主要是由於技術成本、基於績效的薪酬和專業費用的增加。費用年增 10%，扣除外幣換算的不利影響後成長 7%，反映出員工相關成本、技術成本以及績效和股權激勵的增加。本季生產力為59.5%，季增340個基點。本季的有效稅率為 14.7%，而去年同期為 17.6%，這是由於免稅收入增加和來自較低稅收管轄區的收入增加，部分抵消了銀行免稅稅率的增加和較低的通膨調整。

Moving to Slide 7. The bank reported a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13%, an increase of approximately 30 basis points this quarter. Net internal capital generation was 19 basis points the sale of our 20% equity interest in Canadian Tire Financial Services contributed 16 basis points, and the dividend reinvestment plan contributed 11 basis points. This was partly offset by 10 basis points impact from the restructuring and onetime items and the negative 8 basis points from the fair value impact of available-for-sale securities. Risk-weighted assets were $440 billion, flat quarter-over-quarter as the decline in book size was offset by the impact of foreign exchange. The estimated impact from the adoption of the Basel III reforms is approximately 75 basis points in Q1 2024. The 2.5% decrease of the capital floor to 67.5% is approximately 45 basis points, and the implementation of the fundamental review of the trading book is approximately 30 basis points.

轉到投影片 7。該銀行公佈的普通股一級資本比率為 13%，本季增加了約 30 個基點。淨內部資本產生為 19 個基點，其中出售 Canadian Tire Financial Services 20% 的股權貢獻了 16 個基點，股利再投資計畫貢獻了 11 個基點。這被重組和一次性項目造成的 10 個基點的影響以及可供出售證券公允價值影響的負 8 個基點所部分抵消。風險加權資產為 4,400 億美元，環比持平，帳面規模的下降被外匯影響所抵銷。巴塞爾協議III改革的採用預計對2024年第一季的影響約為75個基點。資本底限下降2.5%至67.5%約為45個基點，交易帳基本面審查的實施約為30個基點。

In addition, the bank's liquidity coverage ratio grew 136% and was significantly up from 119% last year. The net stable funding ratio also improved at 116% from 111% in the prior year. The capital and liquidity ratios are expected to remain strong in 2024 with our plan to manage our common equity Tier 1 ratio in the 12.5% range.

此外，該行的流動性覆蓋率增加了136%，顯著高於去年的119%。淨穩定資金比率也從前一年的 111% 提高至 116%。預計 2024 年資本和流動性比率將保持強勁，我們計劃將普通股一級資本比率管理在 12.5% 的範圍內。

Turning now to the Q4 business line results, beginning on Slide 8. Canadian Banking reported earnings of $810 million, a decrease of 31% year-over-year due to higher provision for credit losses and higher noninterest expenses. year-over-year revenues grew 6%, while expense growth was 9%. The average loans and acceptances were in line with prior year and down 1% from the prior quarter, while the mix changed. We saw continued growth in our higher-yielding portfolios as business loans grew 11% and personal loans grew 3% and credit cards increased 18%. This was offset by a decline of 4% in residential mortgage businesses. We continue to see deposit growth primarily in term products, with average deposits up 2% quarter-over-quarter.

現在轉向第四季度業務線業績，從幻燈片 8 開始。加拿大銀行業公佈的利潤為 8.1 億美元，年減 31%，原因是信貸損失撥備增加和非利息支出增加。營收年增 6%，費用成長 9%。平均貸款和承兌匯票與上年持平，季減 1%，但結構發生變化。我們的高收益投資組合持續成長，商業貸款成長 11%，個人貸款成長 3%，信用卡成長 18%。這被住宅抵押貸款業務下降 ​​4% 所抵消。我們繼續看到存款成長主要集中在定期產品上，平均存款較上季成長 2%。

Year-over-year deposits grew 10% and the loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 125 basis points -- sorry, 125% from 138% last year. Net interest income increased 8% year-over-year as deposits grew a strong 10%. Quarter-over-quarter margin expanded by 12 basis points, benefiting from asset repricing and intentional changes in business mix. Noninterest income was in line with last year due to lower banking fees, mostly offset by higher insurance revenue, expenses increased 9% year-over-year, primarily due to higher personnel costs and inflationary adjustments. Quarter-over-quarter expenses were up 4%. The PCL ratio was 63 basis points, an increase of 36 basis points quarter-over-quarter from significantly higher performing loan provisions.

存款年增 10%，貸存比率提高至 125 個基點——抱歉，從去年的 138% 提高到 125%。淨利息收入較去年同期成長 8%，存款強勁成長 10%。受益於資產重新定價和業務組合的有意調整，季度利潤率擴大了 12 個基點。非利息收入與去年持平，原因是銀行費用降低，大部分被保險收入增加所抵消，費用年增 9%，主要是由於人員成本上升和通膨調整。環比開支增長 4%。 PCL 比率為 63 個基點，較上季成長 36 個基點，貸款撥備表現顯著提升。

Looking forward to 2024, deposit and loan growth is expected to moderate from 2023 levels. This, along with the improving net interest margins is expected to drive revenue growth. Solid revenue growth in retail, including [tendering] is expected to continue, while business banking revenues are expected to moderate. The segment will grow expenses in line with revenue growth while balancing strategic growth investments.

展望2024年，存貸款成長率預計將較2023年水準放緩。加上淨利差的改善，預計將推動收入成長。包括[招標]在內的零售收入預計將繼續穩健成長，而商業銀行收入預計將放緩。該部門將根據收入成長來增加支出，同時平衡策略性成長投資。

Turning now to Global Wealth Management on Slide 9. Earnings of $333 million declined 10% year-over-year as a strong 8% growth within International Wealth was offset by Canadian wealth results declining 12%, largely due to lower average assets under management. Revenues grew 3% year-over-year due primarily to higher brokerage revenues in Canada and Private Banking revenues within our international business. Expenses were up 11% year-over-year, driven by higher volume-related expenses and technology costs. Spot asset under management increased 2% year-over-year to $317 billion as market appreciation was mostly offset by net redemptions. Assets under administration increased 5% over the same period to $610 billion from higher net sales and market appreciation. Investment fund sales in Canada continue to be under pressure with approximately $60 billion in net redemptions over the last year.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 上的全球財富管理。收入 3.33 億美元同比下降 10%，國際財富部門強勁的 8% 增長被加拿大財富業績下降 12% 所抵消，這主要是由於管理的平均資產較低。營收年增 3%，主要是由於加拿大的經紀收入和國際業務中的私人銀行收入增加。由於銷售相關費用和技術成本增加，費用年增 11%。管理的現貨資產年增 2%，達到 3,170 億美元，市場升值大部分被淨贖回所抵銷。由於淨銷售額增加和市場升值，管理資產同期成長 5%，達到 6,100 億美元。加拿大的投資基金銷售持續面臨壓力，去年淨贖回額約為 600 億美元。

Under this backdrop, Scotia Global Asset Management investment results continue to perform well against their benchmarks. International Wealth Management generated earnings of $52 million driven by higher revenues from business volume growth. AUA and AUM grew 12% and 16%, respectively, year-over-year. Global Wealth Management expects to deliver revenue growth in 2024, driven by retail mutual fund volume growth, solid growth across our Canadian advisory businesses and continued expansion across key international markets. Earnings are expected to grow in line with the recovering market conditions and strong new business volume growth.

在此背景下，豐業環球資產管理公司的投資表現相對於基準持續表現良好。由於業務量成長帶來的收入增加，國際財富管理公司實現了 5,200 萬美元的利潤。 AUA 和 AUM 較去年同期分別成長 12% 和 16%。全球財富管理預計，在零售共同基金數量成長、加拿大諮詢業務穩健成長以及主要國際市場持續擴張的推動下，2024 年收入將實現成長。預計盈利將隨著市場狀況的復甦和新業務量的強勁增長而增長。

Turning to Slide 10. Global Banking and Markets generated earnings of $414 million, down 14% year-over-year. Capital markets revenue was up 9% year-over-year as global equities grew 25%. However, business banking revenues declined 5% as loans were flat year-over-year. Net interest income was down 19% year-over-year as a result of higher trading-related funding costs and lower corporate lending margins. Noninterest income grew $95 million or 11% year-over-year primarily due to higher fee and commission revenue, partly offset by lower trading-related revenue. Expenses were up a more of 3% quarter-over-quarter, mainly from higher technology costs and the negative impact of foreign exchange.

轉向幻燈片 10。全球銀行和市場業務實現盈利 4.14 億美元，年減 14%。隨著全球股市上漲 25%，資本市場收入年增 9%。然而，由於貸款同比持平，商業銀行收入下降了 5%。由於交易相關融資成本上升和企業貸款利潤率下降，淨利息收入較去年同期下降 19%。非利息收入年增 9,500 萬美元，或 11%，主要是由於費用和佣金收入增加，但部分被交易相關收入減少所抵銷。費用較上季成長超過3%，主要是由於技術成本上升和外匯的負面影響。

On a year-over-year basis, expenses were up 12%, due mainly to higher personnel costs and technology investments related to the business growth. The provision for credit losses increased 13 basis points quarter-over-quarter to $39 million mostly on performing loans. The U.S. business generated strong earnings of $228 million. GBM Latin America, which is reported as part of the International Banking segment reported earnings of $251 million, down $63 million from a record third quarter with lower earnings in Chile, Peru and Mexico due to lower capital markets activities.

費用年增 12%，主要是由於與業務成長相關的人員成本和技術投資增加。信貸損失準備金環比增加 13 個基點，達到 3,900 萬美元，主要用於不良貸款。美國業務創造了 2.28 億美元的強勁盈利。據報道，GBM拉丁美洲是國際銀行業務的一部分，報告盈利為2.51億美元，比創紀錄的第三季度下降了6300萬美元，其中智利、秘魯和墨西哥的盈利較低，原因是資本市場活動減少。

In 2024, in capital markets, revenue growth will be led by FICC, while Business banking is expected to grow revenues. Expense growth will be focused on key investments in priority segments and markets. Earnings in GBM Lat Am are expected to moderate in 2024 to more normal levels from the elevated earnings in 2023 and the impact of reduced capital allocation.

2024年，在資本市場，固定收益業務（FICC）將引領營收成長，而商業銀行業務預計將實現營收成長。費用成長將集中在優先細分市場和市場的關鍵投資。由於 2023 年收益增加以及資本配置減少的影響，GBM Lat Am 的收益預計將在 2024 年放緩至更正常的水平。

Moving to Slide 11 for a review of International Banking. My comments that follow are on an adjusted and constant dollar basis. The segment reported net income of $570 million down 12% or $75 million quarter-over-quarter, primarily from lower earnings from GBM Lat Am of $63 million. Revenue was up 3% year-over-year, driven by higher net interest margins. Year-over-year loan growth moderated to 2%. Mortgages were up 7%, while business banking decreased 1%. Deposits grew a strong 9% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. The loan-to-deposit ratio improved by over 1,000 basis points year-over-year to 129%. Net interest margin expanded 8 basis points quarter-over-quarter from asset margin expansion and business mix changes. The provision for credit losses was 119 basis points of $512 million, up a modest 1 basis point quarter-over-quarter. Expenses were up 3% year-over-year due to inflationary pressure, partly offset by the benefits of cost reduction initiatives. Expenses were up 2% quarter-over-quarter driven by technology expense. Operating leverage was positive for the year. Looking ahead to 2024, revenues in International Banking are expected to benefit from loan growth and net interest margin expansion. Expenses are expected to grow at a lower rate than revenue, reflecting expense saving initiatives. Earnings are expected to be impacted by higher provision for credit losses and a higher tax rate.

前往投影片 11，回顧一下國際銀行業務。我接下來的評論是在調整後且美元不變的基礎上做出的。該部門淨利潤為 5.7 億美元，環比下降 12%，即 7,500 萬美元，主要是由於 GBM Lat Am 的收益減少了 6,300 萬美元。受淨利差上升的推動，營收年增 3%。貸款年增率放緩至 2%。抵押貸款成長 7%，而商業銀行業務下降 ​​1%。存款較去年同期強勁成長 9%，較上季成長 3%。存貸比年增1000多個基點至129%。由於資產利潤率擴張和業務結構變化，淨利差較上季擴大8個基點。信貸損失準備金為 119 個基點，達 5.12 億美元，較上季小幅上升 1 個基點。由於通膨壓力，費用年增 3%，但部分被成本削減措施的好處所抵銷。在技​​術費用的推動下，費用較上季成長 2%。全年營運槓桿率為正值。展望 2024 年，國際銀行業務的收入預計將受益於貸款成長和淨利差擴大。預計支出成長率將低於收入成長速度，反映出支出節約措施。預計獲利將受到信貸損失準備金增加和稅率提高的影響。

Turning to Slide 12. The other segment reported an adjusted net loss attributable to equity holders of $487 million that was higher by $188 million compared to the prior quarter. Revenue was lower than last quarter by $222 million. Higher interest from liquid assets was more than offset by increase in funding costs. Also contributing was further improvement in our liquidity levels which comes at a net cost. Revenue was also impacted by minimal investment gains and lower income from associated corporations and unrealized gains on non-trading derivatives. This was partly offset by lower taxes and noninterest expenses.

轉向投影片 12。另一個部門報告調整後歸屬於股東的淨虧損為 4.87 億美元，比上一季增加了 1.88 億美元。營收比上季減少了 2.22 億美元。流動資產帶來的更高利息被融資成本的增加所抵銷。我們的流動性水準的進一步提高也做出了貢獻，這是以淨成本為代價的。收入也受到投資收益極低、關聯公司收入下降以及非交易衍生性商品未實現收益的影響。這部分被較低的稅收和非利息支出所抵消。

In 2024, the other segment loss is expected to remain elevated as funding costs are expected to remain at these levels for most of the year with significantly lower investment gains. We will see improvements in this segment as rates declined toward the second half of 2024. I will now turn the call over to Phil to discuss risk.

到 2024 年，其他部門的虧損預計將繼續保持在較高水平，因為融資成本預計將在一年中的大部分時間保持在這些水平，而投資收益將大幅下降。隨著 2024 年下半年利率下降，我們將看到這一領域的改善。我現在將把電話轉給菲爾討論風險。

Thank you, Raj. Good morning, everyone. We continue to strengthen our balance sheet by increasing our ACL ratio from 71 basis points to 85 basis points this year. With this, we have now increased our allowances for credit losses by $1.1 billion in 2023, with $780 million of this increase from performing allowances. Given the macroeconomic backdrop of higher unemployment levels, higher for longer interest rates and upcoming renewals of fixed rate mortgages in Canada, we have focused on strengthening the balance sheet, including a further increase in performing allowances this quarter of $440 million, leveraging expert credit judgment for Canadian Banking and Global Banking and Markets. Higher quality originations with a focus on affluent in international and higher credit quality and business banking. Shifting business mix to a more secured across our footprint; and finally, a continued focus on building performance allowances in international, resulting in an approximate $200 million increase over the past 6 quarters. This improved ACL coverage provides us with a solid foundation to manage through periods of slow growth and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. It is important to note that while delinquencies are still within historical norms, consumer health in Canada continues to weaken, and we expect households may continue to experience financial pressure through 2024 with the build in ACL addressing this.

謝謝你，拉傑。大家，早安。今年，我們將 ACL 比率從 71 個基點提高到 85 個基點，繼續強化資產負債表。據此，我們現在已將 2023 年信貸損失準備金增加了 11 億美元，其中 7.8 億美元來自履約準備金。鑑於加拿大失業率上升、長期利率上升以及即將續訂固定利率抵押貸款的宏觀經濟背景，我們重點加強資產負債表，包括利用專家信用判斷，在本季度將績效津貼進一步增加 4.4 億加元加拿大銀行業以及全球銀行業和市場。更高品質的起源，重點關注國際富人以及更高的信用品質和商業銀行業務。使我們的業務組合更加安全；最後，繼續關注國際業務績效津貼的建設，導致過去 6 個季度增加了約 2 億美元。 ACL 覆蓋範圍的擴大為我們應對成長緩慢和宏觀經濟環境不確定的時期奠定了堅實的基礎。值得注意的是，雖然拖欠率仍處於歷史正常範圍內，但加拿大的消費者健康狀況持續惡化，我們預計家庭可能會在 2024 年之前繼續面臨財務壓力，而 ACL 的建設將解決這一問題。

In Business Banking, we are not seeing increased defaults due to high quality of our portfolios. However, we are increasing our coverage ratio given the expectation of continued elevated interest rates and the potential impact on client performance.

在商業銀行業務中，由於我們的投資組合品質很高，我們並沒有看到違約率增加。然而，鑑於利率持續上升的預期以及對客戶業績的潛在影響，我們正在提高覆蓋率。

Moving to Slide 15. The quarter-over-quarter PCL increase was primarily driven by the performing allowance build, which was 23 basis points. This compares to 4 basis points last quarter. The build was primarily in Canadian Banking. As a result of the increased ACL, our total PCLs in Q4 were $1.26 billion, including $454 million of performing PCLs. Total PCLs were up $437 million quarter-over-quarter. This translates to a PCL ratio of 65 basis points. Impaired PCLs trended higher at 42 basis points compared to 38 basis points in Q3. Canadian Banking total PCLs were 63 basis points. Quarter-over-quarter, total PCLs increased by $393 million, resulting in a total PCL of $700 million. $414 million or 37 basis points of the PCLs were related to performing allowance build, of which $240 million was for Canadian retail and $174 million was for business banking.

轉到投影片 15。PCL 季度環比成長主要是由績效津貼成長推動的，該成長為 23 個基點。相比之下，上季為 4 個基點。該建設主要針對加拿大銀行業。由於 ACL 增加，我們第四季的 PCL 總額為 12.6 億美元，其中執行 PCL 為 4.54 億美元。 PCL 總額季增 4.37 億美元。這相當於 PCL 比率為 65 個基點。受損的 PCL 呈上升趨勢，上升 42 個基點，而第三季為 38 個基點。加拿大銀行業總 PCL 為 63 個基點。與上一季相比，PCL 總額增加了 3.93 億美元，PCL 總額達到 7 億美元。 4.14 億美元或 PCL 的 37 個基點與執行準備金建設有關，其中 2.4 億美元用於加拿大零售業，1.74 億美元用於商業銀行業務。

Retail customers in Canada continue to spend less on discretionary goods and more on essential items year-over-year. Overall, spending has continued to slow as total debit and credit card spend fell 3% quarter-over-quarter and remained flat year-over-year despite inflation. Variable rate mortgage customers continue to spend less than their fixed rate counterparts with total spend down 11% year-over-year, while spending for fixed rate customers is only down 5%. Additionally, delinquencies continue to trend up across all products in Canada. 90-day delinquency levels were 3 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 25 basis points and were up 10 basis points year-over-year. Quarter-over-quarter, we saw a deterioration in [HELOCs] and auto, increasing 9 and 6 basis points, respectively.

加拿大零售客戶在非必需品上的支出持續減少，而在必需品上的支出逐年增加。總體而言，支出持續放緩，借記卡和信用卡支出總額環比下降 3%，儘管存在通膨，但同比仍持平。可變利率抵押貸款客戶的支出持續低於固定利率客戶，總支出較去年同期下降 11%，而固定利率客戶的支出僅下降 5%。此外，加拿大所有產品的拖欠率持續呈上升趨勢。 90 天拖欠水準較上月上升 3 個基點至 25 個基點，較去年同期上升 10 個基點。與上一季相比，我們看到 [HELOC] 和汽車產業惡化，分別增加 9 個和 6 個基點。

In Canadian Business Banking, we are cognizant of uncertain macroeconomic conditions. Included in our ACL coverage is an additional build for our real estate portfolio, which includes impacts to collateral values. Our exposure to U.S. real estate is largely to investment-grade borrowers. And as disclosed in the investor presentation, our U.S. office exposure is immaterial. Global Banking and Markets provisions for credit losses were $39 million or 11 basis points this quarter and included a performing allowance build of $30 million. Total PCLs in International Banking were $512 million or 119 basis points, up 1 basis point from the prior quarter. Total retail PCLs decreased $17 million quarter-over-quarter to bring the PCL ratio to 211 basis points, driven by lower allowances and increases in Colombia and Chile. Performance in these markets have started to stabilize with improving macroeconomic outlook. Central banks have paused interest rate hikes in Colombia and in Chile, they have started reducing rates. Mexico continues to perform within expectations, supported by resilient underlying economic fundamentals. Headwinds persist in Peru with delinquencies remaining elevated and GDP contracted. Peru entered a recession and will likely be further impacted by the upcoming El Nino. Contingency plans and loss mitigation tools are ready and have been deployed where needed.

在加拿大商業銀行業務中，我們認識到宏觀經濟狀況的不確定性。我們的 ACL 承保範圍包括對我們的房地產投資組合的額外構建，其中包括對抵押品價值的影響。我們對美國房地產的投資主要針對投資等級借款人。正如投資者演示中所揭露的，我們在美國辦事處的風險並不重要。本季全球銀行和市場部門的信貸損失準備金為 3,900 萬美元，即 11 個基點，其中包括 3,000 萬美元的績效準備金。國際銀行業務的 PCL 總額為 5.12 億美元，即 119 個基點，比上一季增加 1 個基點。由於哥倫比亞和智利的配額減少以及配額增加，零售 PCL 總額較上季減少 1,700 萬美元，PCL 比率達到 211 個基點。隨著宏觀經濟前景的改善，這些市場的表現已開始穩定。哥倫比亞央行暫停升息，智利央行已開始降息。在彈性的基本經濟基本面的支持下，墨西哥的表現持續符合預期。秘魯的逆風依然存在，拖欠率仍然很高，國內生產毛額萎縮。秘魯進入經濟衰退，可能會受到即將到來的厄爾尼諾現象的進一步影響。應急計劃和損失緩解工具已準備就緒，並已在需要的地方部署。

Looking to fiscal 2024, we expect a challenging environment will persist for consumers and businesses. Canadian GDP growth is expected to remain muted and inflationary pressures on household is expected to persist with the outlook for rate cuts uncertain. We expect PCLs in 2024 to be in the 45 to 55 basis point range, assuming no significant changes to our expected economic scenarios.

展望 2024 財年，我們預期消費者和企業將持續面臨充滿挑戰的環境。預計加拿大國內生產毛額成長將保持溫和，家庭的通膨壓力預計將持續，降息前景不確定。假設我們預期的經濟情境沒有重大變化，我們預期 2024 年 PCL 將在 45 至 55 個基點範圍內。

With that, I'll pass the call back to John.

這樣，我會將電話轉回給約翰。

Great. Thanks, Phil. Operator, can you open the lines for questions.

偉大的。謝謝，菲爾。接線員，您可以打開提問線路嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala for Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

Good morning. So I guess maybe, Raj, you went through a lot in terms of the outlook for next year. I just want to make sure we heard you right. It sounds like you're guiding for PTPP to be up either year-over-year and from fourth quarter levels, given revenue growth should exceed expense growth and revenue growth driven by NIM expansion. So if you don't mind, just quantify the level of margin expansion you expect at the all bank level if we don't see any action from Bank of Canada from here on? And what's the expense growth that we should think about would be the right way for 24 either year-over-year or relative to fourth quarter expense run rate?

早安.所以我想，拉吉，你可能對明年的前景經歷了很多。我只是想確保我們沒聽錯。鑑於收入成長應超過由淨利差擴張推動的費用成長和收入成長，聽起來您正在指導 PTPP 同比成長並較第四季的水平成長。因此，如果您不介意的話，如果我們從現在開始看不到加拿大央行採取任何行動，那麼您可以量化一下您預期在所有銀行層面的利潤擴張水平嗎？我們應該考慮的費用成長是多少才是 24 的正確方式，無論是年比還是相對於第四季的費用運行率？

Thanks, Ebrahim. I'll start. Margin expansion should continue for the whole bank in 2024 Ebrahim. Couple of reasons. One is repricing of our loans has already commenced, as you saw this quarter. Frankly, you saw it in the last couple of quarters across our portfolio, and that should continue in 2024. We know our deposit margin contribution to 2023 will be muted in '24 because there's been lots of deposit growth. And I said in my prepared remarks, that deposit growth is expected to be lower than what we saw in 2023. The net of it is you should see pretty decent margin expansion from where we finished Q4 2023, both in the business lines as well as across the bank, like you pointed out, with the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Fed expected to stop rate increases. Obviously, if they do increase, it will be a headwind to this bank. So I think margins will be a good news story. That's where we expect net interest income to grow next quarter in my prepared remarks, what I talked about. Expenses is -- Q4 tends to be seasonally higher. I think it's not unusual for us, like Q1 next year will be higher because we have what we call eligible to retire costs that comes through our business lines, which gets recorded in Q1 across our employee base. But for the whole year, like I mentioned, we expect to generate positive operating leverage for the bank, i.e., revenue growth exceeding expense growth by some margin. We know that the Canadian bank has to invest. So there, we think our revenue growth will be strong and offset the expense growth that is expected as we look forward. International Bank will continue to generate positive operating leverage as it did this year and the wealth and GBM businesses, it depends a bit on the markets. But I think for the whole bank, we expect to generate positive operating leverage.

謝謝，易卜拉欣。我開始吧。易卜拉欣，到 2024 年，整個銀行的利潤率應該會繼續擴大。有幾個原因。一是我們的貸款重新定價已經開始，正如您在本季看到的那樣。坦白說，您在過去幾季的投資組合中看到了這一點，這種情況應該會在2024 年繼續下去。我們知道，我們對2023 年的存款保證金貢獻將在2024 年減弱，因為存款大幅增長。我在準備好的發言中說過，存款成長預計將低於2023 年的水平。最終結果是，從2023 年第四季結束的情況來看，您應該會看到相當可觀的利潤率擴張，無論是在業務領域還是正如您所指出的，加拿大央行和聯準會預計將停止升息。顯然，如果它們確實增加，這將對該銀行構成阻力。所以我認為利潤率會是一個好消息。這就是我在準備好的演講中所談到的，我們預計下季淨利息收入將成長的地方。第四季的費用往往會季節性增加。我認為這對我們來說並不罕見，就像明年第一季會更高，因為我們有資格透過我們的業務線產生退休成本，這些成本記錄在我們員工基礎的第一季。但就全年而言，正如我所提到的，我們預計將為銀行帶來正的營運槓桿，即收入成長在一定程度上超過費用成長。我們知道加拿大銀行必須投資。因此，我們認為我們的收入成長將強勁，並抵消我們預期的費用成長。國際銀行將繼續像今年一樣產生積極的營運槓桿，以及財富和 GBM 業務，這在一定程度上取決於市場。但我認為對於整個銀行來說，我們期望產生積極的營運槓桿。

Expense growth will be significantly lower than what you saw this year. Adjusted for FX, like I said, it was about 7% for the whole year. And next year, we're going to benefit from the productivity initiatives that we took as well. Part of it is expected to come through in '24 and year benefit should come through in '25. So all that points to an expense growth, I would call in the low end of the mid-single-digit range is what we expect next year.

費用成長將明顯低於今年的情況。正如我所說，根據外匯調整，全年約為 7%。明年，我們也將從我們採取的生產力措施中受益。部分預計將在 24 年實現，年度效益應在 25 年實現。因此，所有這些都表明支出成長，我認為明年的支出將達到中個位數範圍的低端。

That is helpful. And just on a separate question, Raj. You laid out the 75 basis point impact to CET1 from the Basel, FRTB/CVA changes and the floor factor in 1Q. So as we get to [1,225], remind us where you want to be on CET1 as we think about the DRIP and are there any actions that you can take to materially optimize the balance sheet to reduce that drag either on the market risk side or on floor factor?

這很有幫助。關於一個單獨的問題，拉傑。您列出了巴塞爾、FRTB/CVA 變化和第一季下限係數對 CET1 的 75 個基點影響。因此，當我們到達[1,225] 時，請提醒我們，當我們考慮DRIP 時，您希望在CET1 上處於什麼位置，以及您是否可以採取任何行動來實質性優化資產負債表，以減少市場風險方面或方面的拖累。樓層因素？

Thank you, Ebrahim. I think as far as capital ratio goes, we'd like to run around the 12.5% range for the rest of 2024. And the DRIP is a contributor to that without any doubt. A lot of the actions that you referred to on muting loan growth, you've already seen it. You've seen our -- we've been targeted about where we want to deploy our capital, and we've been pulling back capital from certain parts of the business where it has not been providing the appropriate returns in a capital-constrained environment with higher cost of capital coming at us. So 1,250 is what we expect to run for 2024. Obviously, it also depends on what OSFI will do and some of the other regulatory changes that can come across starting December 8. We want to be prudent. We want around 12.5%. And we'll revisit all the actions that we need to take or not as we see how the regulatory environment evolves through 2024.

謝謝你，易卜拉欣。我認為就資本比率而言，我們希望在 2024 年剩餘時間內保持在 12.5% 左右。毫無疑問，DRIP 是其中的貢獻者。您提到的許多抑制貸款成長的行動，您已經看到了。你已經看到我們的目標是我們想要部署資本的地方，並且我們一直從業務的某些部分撤回資本，這些部分在資本緊張的環境中無法提供適當的回報我們面臨更高的資本成本。因此，我們預計 2024 年將運行 1,250 個。顯然，這也取決於 OSFI 將做什麼以及從 12 月 8 日開始可能出現的其他一些監管變化。我們希望保持謹慎。我們想要 12.5% 左右。隨著 2024 年監管環境的演變，我們將重新審視所有需要採取或不需要採取的行動。

Beyond that, we'll talk about it at Investor Day to see what is the right capital levels that this bank should be running at, for FY '24, that's what you should expect from us.

除此之外，我們將在投資者日討論這個問題，看看這家銀行在 24 財年的正確資本水平應該是多少，這就是您對我們的期望。

The following question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

以下問題來自國家銀行金融部門的 Gabriel Dechaine。

I just want to put a fine-tune on the outlook commentary there and sort a few things from Scott and then the MD&A, of course. You're suggesting that earnings growth will be marginal in 2024. That's off of the full year adjusted base from 2023, I assume. And if we're looking at it from an earnings per share standpoint, you got marginal earnings growth, then you've got the DRIP, which might be ongoing for the full year, we're probably going to see lower than marginal EPS growth? Is that a reasonable interpretation?

我只是想對那裡的前景評論進行微調，並從斯科特那裡整理一些東西，當然還有 MD&A。您認為 2024 年的獲利成長將是微不足道的。我認為，這與 2023 年全年調整後的基數相去甚遠。如果我們從每股盈餘的角度來看，你會得到邊際收益成長，那麼你就會得到 DRIP，這可能會持續一整年，我們可能會看到低於邊際每股收益的成長？這是一個合理的解釋嗎？

No. I think Gabe, I'll start and Scott might have a comment or 2 on that. I think on an EPS basis, you should see growth, like marginal growth, right from the $6.54 that we reported this year. The DRIP definitely increases the share count, as you point out, Gabe, that's inclusive on the comment that I made. If you just look at net income growth, it will be greater than the EPS growth because the DRIP contribution, which is definitely between 8 and 9 million shares a quarter this year, and I suspect it will continue through in 2024 will be an offset. But offsetting that, we think we'll have marginal growth in the EPS.

不，我想 Gabe，我會開始，Scott 可能會對此發表一兩則評論。我認為，以每股收益為基礎，你應該會看到成長，例如邊際成長，從我們今年報告的 6.54 美元開始。正如您所指出的，Gabe，DRIP 肯定會增加分享數量，這包含了我所做的評論。如果你只看淨利潤增長，它會大於每股收益增長，因為 DRIP 貢獻今年每個季度肯定在 800 到 900 萬股之間，我懷疑它會持續到 2024 年，這將是一種抵消。但為了抵銷這項影響，我們認為每股盈餘將出現邊際成長。

Gabe. Just let me make a couple of comments on that. I mean recognizing this has been a difficult year. It's, I think, the 1-year anniversary, and we want to move quickly to address a lot of these issues around capital, liquidity, costs through the restructuring charge, allowances, and we've done that, get you the $654 million. And the guidance we're giving is conviction around growing earnings from here. And that's an important message to take away.

加布.請允許我對此發表幾點評論。我的意思是認識到這是艱難的一年。我想，今天是成立一周年紀念日，我們希望迅速採取行動，透過重組費用、津貼來解決圍繞資本、流動性、成本的許多問題，我們已經做到了，為您提供了 6.54 億美元。我們給的指導是對這裡收入成長的信念。這是一個重要的訊息。

Okay. And then while on the building allowances front, I mean one way to look at it is you're being "conservative" and I think investors appreciate that. But the other way to look at it is that from a performing ACL ratio standpoint, if I look at it, including mortgages or excluding mortgages, you're just at your pre-COVID level. So it's a bit of a catch-up in that regard. As the outlook or if the outlook remains challenging, which undoubtedly will be, could we see additional uptick to your performing ACL like beyond the run rate we have Q4.

好的。然後，在建築津貼方面，我的意思是，看待它的一種方式是“保守”，我認為投資者會欣賞這一點。但另一種看待它的方式是，從執行 ACL 比率的角度來看，如果我看它，包括抵押貸款或排除抵押貸款，你只是處於新冠疫情之前的水平。所以在這方面它有點追趕。由於前景或如果前景仍然充滿挑戰（毫無疑問將會如此），我們是否會看到您的 ACL 表現進一步上升，就像超出我們第四季度的運行率一樣。

Thanks, Gabe. It's Phil here. Great to hear you, and thanks for the question. The -- if I look forward to 2024, we've -- we're guiding towards -- I said it in my prepared remarks, 45 to 55 basis points. The portfolio that we have today, we like, and we've done a great job over the last few years really building a strong portfolio. There are still pockets where we need to focus on in the international bank, but we've really turned a lot of the portfolio that we had pre-pandemic is not the portfolio that we have now, especially with the strong focus on affluent growth in the international banking platform. and the change in mix shift from unsecured to secured. And so that is giving a different profile. We built these allowances because we were thoughtful about the macroeconomic outlook, we wanted to continue to strengthen the balance sheet as both Scott and Raj said. And it's really a forward-looking perspective for us. But I'm not seeing a ton of weakness in our portfolio. We're going to be mindful of the macroeconomic shifts throughout the year. And if we need to build further performing allowances, we will, but the portfolio is strong.

謝謝，加布。這是菲爾。很高興聽到你的提問，謝謝你的提問。如果我展望 2024 年，我們已經——我們正在引導——我在準備好的演講中說過，45 到 55 個基點。我們今天擁有的投資組合，我們喜歡，我們在過去幾年中做得很好，真正建立了強大的投資組合。國際銀行仍然有一些地方需要我們關注，但我們確實已經將大流行前的許多投資組合轉變為現在的投資組合，特別是在大力關注富裕增長的情況下國際銀行平台。以及組合的變化從無擔保轉向有擔保。這就是一個不同的形象。我們建立這些津貼是因為我們對宏觀經濟前景深思熟慮，我們希望繼續加強資產負債表，正如斯科特和拉傑所說。這對我們來說確實是一個前瞻性的視角。但我沒有看到我們的投資組合有太多弱點。我們將關注全年宏觀經濟的變化。如果我們需要建立進一步的績效津貼，我們會的，但投資組合很強大。

Right. No, no, I'm not suggesting otherwise, just from a management standpoint, where do you see the -- an increase in your ratio next year? Is it more from the impaired or more from the performing?

正確的。不，不，我並不是提出其他建議，只是從管理的角度來看，您認為明年的比率會增加嗎？是更多來自受損者還是更多來自表演者？

It will be more from the impaired with the usual run rate of our performing allowances.

按照我們的表演津貼的通常運行率，這將更多地來自於受損者。

The following question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

以下問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

This might be too simple, Raj, maybe you could help me. The fundamental review of the trading book was meaning -- it's going to be meaningful at 45 basis points. The next 2 years, should we -- is it appropriate to assume that the hit would also be about 45 basis points each year for the next 2 years as we get to the full $72.5 million in 2026? Or is that too simple approach to the equation?

這可能太簡單了，Raj，也許你可以幫助我。對交易帳戶的基本面審查是有意義的——在 45 個基點時它將有意義。未來兩年，當我們在 2026 年達到 7,250 萬美元時，假設未來兩年每年的打擊幅度約為 45 個基點是否合適？或者這個方程式的計算方法是否太簡單了？

No, I think the fundamental review of the trading book should not repeat, right? So it's a onetime hit like you...

不，我認為交易書的基本面回顧不應該重複，對吧？所以像你一樣是一次性的打擊...

I'm sorry, I was referring to the flows. Sorry, Raj. I meant the flows. It's my mistake.

抱歉，我指的是流量。對不起，拉傑。我的意思是流量。這是我的錯。

Got it. No problem. I think the flow of the mathematical calculation will tell you that. Page 96 (inaudible) disclosed award is our standardized risk-weighted assets. If it remained at those levels, yes, 2.5% of that will be around the 45 basis points that you're referring to in '25 and '26, Mario. The flip side to it is Mario, will continue to work on optimizing the portfolio. That's what we've been doing through 2023, frankly, and we'll make some deliberate choices on how we allocate capital to the various portfolios to ensure we're getting paid for the additional capital that we have to put up. But at this time, that's probably the best estimate you have.

知道了。沒問題。我想數學計算的流程會告訴你這一點。第 96 頁（聽不清楚）揭露的獎勵是我們的標準化風險加權資產。如果它保持在這些水平，是的，其中 2.5% 將是你在 25 年和 26 年提到的 45 個基點左右，馬裡奧。另一方面是馬裡奧，將繼續致力於優化投資組合。坦白說，這就是我們到 2023 年一直在做的事情，我們將在如何將資本分配到各種投資組合方面做出一些深思熟慮的選擇，以確保我們能夠為必須投入的額外資本獲得報酬。但目前，這可能是您擁有的最佳估計。

Okay. This next question might be more for Jake, either Raj or for Jake. The fundamental review of the trading book, I mean, it's in the title, it's fundamental. Is there anything in there that has you rethink Scotia's product throughout the company, Lat Am or Canada? This is a fundamental review book, fundamental review of the trading book have an effect on your appetite in that business?

好的。下一個問題可能更適合傑克，無論是拉傑還是傑克。交易書籍的基本面回顧，我的意思是，它在標題中，它是基本面。其中有什麼東西讓您重新思考整個公司（拉丁美洲或加拿大）的 Scotia 產品嗎？這是一本基本面回顧書，交易書的基本面回顧對你對該業務的胃口有影響嗎？

Yes. I think you've heard it a couple of times, Mario. The new regulatory changes, whether it's FRTB or the floor is making us be more thoughtful about how we allocate capital, and Scott may want to add in. Whether it's by business, by product, by customer, by segment, that disciplined capital allocation and very thoughtful will be a plan moving forward. It doesn't lead to any exits of products at this stage, though. So we won't be changing the product suite materially.

是的。我想你已經聽過好幾次了，馬裡奧。新的監管變化，無論是 FRTB 還是下限，都讓我們對如何分配資本更加深思熟慮，斯科特可能想補充一下。無論是按業務、按產品、按客戶、按細分市場，嚴格的資本分配和非常周到的將是一個前進的計劃。不過，現階段它不會導致任何產品退出。因此，我們不會對產品套件進行實質改變。

So Jake, you wouldn't then -- the weakness in trading this quarter, you wouldn't tie that into the fundamental review of the trading book in any way then.

所以傑克，你不會——本季度交易的疲軟，你不會以任何方式將其與交易賬簿的基本面審查聯繫起來。

No, not at all.

一點都不。

Okay. And then my final question, if I could go to deposits for a moment. The loan-to-deposit ratio has come down. It's meaningful. I've certainly noticed that, but I've also noticed and you've described it clearly in your presentation that it's coming primarily from term. Can you talk a little bit about your confidence that, that those term deposits that were gathered this quarter, maybe talk about where it's coming from? Is it digital as it otherwise and your confidence that this is going to be sticky. It's going to stay with you in a long -- over the long term.

好的。然後是我的最後一個問題，我是否可以暫時去存款。貸存比有所下降。很有意義。我當然注意到了這一點，但我也注意到了，並且您在演示中已經清楚地描述了它主要來自術語。您能否談談您對本季收集的定期存款的信心，也許可以談談它的來源？它是否是數位化的，以及您對這將具有黏性的信心。它將長期陪伴您。

Yes, I'll start, Mario. It's Raj. On the term deposits, you're absolutely right, right? It's customer preferences. When you see this kind of rate increases over the short period of time, that's the right thing what we would advise customers, frankly, and what customers want. But a little bit of data. As far as the retail bank in Canada goes, we've seen it both in the retail bank as well as in Tangerine. We've seen the shift to term. The deposits grew $32 billion in the retail bank in Canada. And obviously, a lot of it was term, right? About 2/3 of it came from term as well as some movement between what we would call day-to-day accounts to term that happened through the year, which has significantly slowed down in Q4. Big, big increases in the beginning, a little less right now. But the core deposit mix, what we call non-term if you want to use such phrase is still meaningfully high. It's over 42% in the Canadian bank. Likewise, business banking to within the Canadian bank, there's a lot of shift to term as corporates and (inaudible) commercial accounts also want to benefit from the rate situation, and we've seen the term deposits and the commercial bank has become now about 26% of the book, which used to be about 15% prior to this. Tangerine, like I referred to, again, core deposits is down to 65%. So Tangerine does have a lot of really good quality deposits, but it's down from 72% in the previous year. So that tells you that there's the same shift that we are seeing, value customers, right, who are Tangerine customers. We think that shift has likely slowed down quite significantly, perhaps even may have stopped now as we look forward into 2024.

是的，我要開始了，馬裡奧。是拉吉。關於定期存款，你絕對正確，對吧？這是客戶的喜好。當你看到這種利率在短時間內上漲時，坦白說，這就是我們向客戶提供的建議，也是客戶想要的。不過是一點點數據。就加拿大的零售銀行而言，我們在零售銀行和 Tangerine 中都看到了這一點。我們已經看到了術語的轉變。加拿大零售銀行的存款增加了 320 億美元。顯然，其中很多都是術語，對吧？其中約 2/3 來自定期帳戶以及全年發生的日常帳戶與定期帳戶之間的一些變動，這種變動在第四季度顯著放緩。一開始增幅很大，現在增幅有點小。但核心存款組合，如果你想用這個詞，我們稱之為非定期存款，仍然很高。加拿大銀行的持股比例超過42%。同樣，在加拿大銀行內部，商業銀行業務也有很多向定期存款的轉變，因為企業和（聽不清楚）商業帳戶也希望從利率情況中受益，我們已經看到定期存款和商業銀行現在已經變得大約本書的26%，在此之前約為15%。 Tangerine，正如我再次提到的，核心存款下降至 65%。因此，Tangerine 確實擁有大量優質礦床，但比前一年的 72% 有所下降。這告訴你，我們看到了同樣的轉變，價值客戶，對，誰是 Tangerine 客戶。我們認為，展望 2024 年，這種轉變可能已經顯著放緩，甚至可能已經停止。

But a lot of the term that we have been taking, Mario, has been at the shorter end. It's between the 2- and 3-year points as we sell more GICs and so on in that space rather than perhaps in the 5-year term, pretty much to match what we're doing specifically on the fixed rate mortgage book, which happens to be between 2 and 3 years fixed rate. So we're trying to balance it out as best as we can. But we believe that the shift to term is likely slowed down, perhaps it'll stop in '24.

但我們使用的許多術語「馬裡奧」都比較短。這是在2 年和3 年期之間，因為我們在該領域出售了更多的擔保投資證等，而不是在5 年期，這幾乎與我們在固定利率抵押貸款賬簿上所做的具體工作相匹配，這種情況發生了2至3年固定利率。所以我們正在盡力平衡它。但我們認為，向期限的轉變可能會放緩，也許會在 24 年停止。

The only thing I'd add, Mario, is what you don't see is the internal work to focus on client profitability and both sides of the balance sheet and that kind of focus around incentives, how we're allocating our time, how we're allocating resources, how we're enabling the teams is significant. And so this shift to deposits is not a 1-year thing. It's a 10-year journey. And you're starting to see the impact of that, I said in my opening comments, new day-to-day account acquisition up 6% year-over-year, seeing some massive engine for that. You're seeing the mortgage product, mortgage profitability up in the quarter significantly as we actually bundle away from just a monoline mortgage opportunity, real focus on auto in terms of cross-selling. This last year has been foundation building in terms of getting that client for profitability focus across the organization, and that's going to pay dividends long term for us.

馬裡奧，我唯一要補充的是，你看不到的是專注於客戶盈利能力和資產負債表兩側的內部工作，以及圍繞激勵措施的關注，我們如何分配時間，如何我們正在分配資源，我們如何為團隊提供支援非常重要。因此，向存款的轉變並不是一年的事。這是一個10年的旅程。我在開場白中表示，您已經開始看到其影響，新的日常帳戶獲取量同比增長 6%，看到了一些巨大的引擎。您將看到抵押貸款產品、抵押貸款盈利能力在本季度顯著上升，因為我們實際上不再只是單一抵押貸款機會，而是在交叉銷售方面真正關注汽車。去年為讓客戶在整個組織中專注於獲利能力奠定了基礎，這將為我們帶來長期紅利。

The following question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

以下問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

I actually want to continue with that discussion point on deposit growth because I hear the message that it remains important for the bank and totally understand why it should. But at the same time, you provided 2024 guidance that deposit growth will slow relative to 2023. And so I guess I just want to understand that message on slowing growth. Is it just because in '23, you had outsized growth and just simply won't repeat at the same pace. Or is it related to pricing dynamics maybe in the deposit market. Just help us maybe understand that 2024 guidance again relative to the long-term importance of growing deposits.

實際上，我想繼續討論關於存款成長的問題，因為我聽到這樣的訊息：它對銀行仍然很重要，並且完全理解為什麼它應該如此。但與此同時，你們提供了 2024 年的指導意見，即存款增長將相對 2023 年放緩。所以我想我只是想了解有關增長放緩的信息。難道只是因為在 23 年，你們的成長速度太快，只是無法以同樣的速度重複。或者可能與存款市場的定價動態有關。只是幫助我們再次理解 2024 年指引相對於存款成長的長期重要性。

Completely. I'll start, Paul. It's Raj. I think the deposit growth, what we -- you should expect from us is to grow in line with loans, which is why we talk a lot about loan-to-deposit growth in this bank, both in the Canadian bank and in International Banking. So that will continue. The reason I quoted the deposit growth to be muted as we're coming off a year where we grew deposits 10%, okay? That's a lot. I talked about the $32 billion in the retail bank and so on in Canada. We know that savings levels have started coming down in Canada. Inflation is a factor. So it's also about availability of cash with our consumers and so on. And if we expect to grow in the low single-digit range is what I think it will be in Canada specifically next year from the profit plan numbers that we have. We think that's still a strong growth considering that the loan growth is expected to be muted. So it's all about balancing both sides of the consumer balance sheet. And likewise, we're doing with commercial customers. It's about managing capital on the other side and likewise managing our liquidity ratios to ensure that we have stable deposits funding our loan growth as we look forward. So I wouldn't read it as significantly lower than 2023. I would talk about it as 2023 was a lot of growth, very targeted and deliberate and we want to manage it appropriately in line with our loan growth. That's what you should see going forward.

完全地。我要開始了，保羅。是拉吉。我認為存款的成長，我們——你應該期望我們的成長與貸款的成長保持一致，這就是為什麼我們在加拿大銀行和國際銀行業都在談論這家銀行的貸存成長。所以這將繼續下去。我之所以提到存款成長緩慢，是因為我們即將迎來存款成長 10% 的一年，好嗎？好多啊。我講了加拿大零售銀行等320億加幣。我們知道加拿大的儲蓄水準已經開始下降。通貨膨脹是一個因素。因此，這也與我們的消費者能否獲得現金等有關。如果我們預期成長會在較低的個位數範圍內，我認為從我們現有的利潤計畫數字來看，明年特別是在加拿大。考慮到貸款成長預計將放緩，我們認為這仍然是強勁的成長。因此，這一切都是為了平衡消費者資產負債表的雙方。同樣，我們正在與商業客戶合作。另一方面是管理資本，同樣管理我們的流動性比率，以確保我們有穩定的存款為我們未來的貸款成長提供資金。所以我不會認為它明顯低於 2023 年。我會談論它，因為 2023 年是一個很大的增長，非常有針對性和深思熟慮，我們希望根據我們的貸款增長適當地管理它。這就是您未來應該看到的情況。

Understand. Okay. So this isn't due to competitive pricing dynamics?

理解。好的。那麼這不是由於競爭性定價動態造成的嗎？

No, I think we've been very, very thoughtful on pricing, Paul. I referred to the earlier call -- earlier person's question. Clearly about managing both term how we price both sides of the balance sheet and that discipline that we expect to maintain.

不，我認為我們在定價方面考慮得非常非常周到，保羅。我提到了之前的電話——之前的人的問題。明確管理我們如何對資產負債表兩側進行定價以及我們期望維持的紀律。

Okay. Got it. Second question then is going back to the performing ACLs. So I just want to understand a little bit better the mechanics in terms of what drove the increase. Is it changes in model inputs? Is it some additional management overlay? Is it a bit of both? Maybe you can kind of just walk us through the specifics in terms of why the ACLs went up this quarter.

好的。知道了。第二個問題是回到執行 ACL。所以我只是想更了解推動成長的機制。模型輸入有改變嗎？是一些額外的管理覆蓋嗎？兩者兼具嗎？也許您可以向我們詳細介紹本季 ACL 上升的原因。

Yes, there's probably 3 things to look at there, Paul. Number one, changes to models from a higher-for-longer perspective. some changes as it relates to more pessimistic scenarios, but there was a significant amount of expert credit judgment that we leveraged in the quarter. Just given our thoughtfulness around where the economy is headed, the uncertainty around interest rates and then looking forward in terms of how fixed rate mortgage customers are going to start to reprice in the Canadian environment over the next year or 2 years.

是的，保羅，可能有三件事值得關注。第一，從更高、更長期的角度來改變模型。由於與更悲觀的情景相關，因此發生了一些變化，但我們在本季度利用了大量的專家信用判斷。考慮到我們對經濟走向的深思熟慮、利率的不確定性，以及未來一年或兩年固定利率抵押貸款客戶將如何開始在加拿大環境中重新定價的展望。

The following question is from Doug Young from Desjardin Capital Markets.

以下問題來自 Desjardin Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

Maybe Phil, just sticking with you, and I get your explanation around the Canadian performing allowance build. I guess the question is like maybe you can talk a bit about why we shouldn't expect something similar on the international book? Is there various items that give you more confidence that you've already taken? the build -- appropriate builds on the international banking book? Or maybe you can kind of just delve into why we shouldn't be expecting something similar?

也許菲爾，只是堅持你，我得到你關於加拿大表演津貼建設的解釋。我想問題是也許你可以談談為什麼我們不應該期待國際書籍上有類似的東西？有沒有其他物品比您已經服用過的物品更能讓您更有信心？建構－適當地建立在國際銀行帳戶之上？或者也許你可以深入研究為什麼我們不應該期待類似的事情？

Yes. Thanks Paul. Great question. We have been building ACL and performing ACL particularly in international. Over the last 6 quarters, it's around $200 million. We have been thoughtful. We started building in Peru, for example, performing ACL about 3 quarters ago as we look forward to El Nino. I'm -- if I look at the different markets, we're starting to see some green shoots in Chile, 225 basis point reduction in trade rates over the last few quarters and strong performance there. Chile remains a bit of a conversation point for us, but we're well provisioned there. Very happy with how things are going in Mexico. I'm very bullish about that market from a risk perspective. And so overall -- and I would also add, I think the shift in strategy that Francisco has brought focusing on primary acquisition of primary customers, gives me a lot of great confidence from a risk perspective that we're moving the right way as we look at building that franchise.

是的。謝謝保羅。很好的問題。我們一直在建立 ACL 並執行 ACL，特別是在國際比賽中。過去 6 個季度，這一數字約為 2 億美元。我們已經深思熟慮了。例如，我們在秘魯開始建設，大約三個季度前進行了 ACL，因為我們期待厄爾尼諾現象。如果我觀察不同的市場，我們開始看到智利出現了一些萌芽，過去幾個季度貿易利率下降了 225 個基點，並且表現強勁。智利對我們來說仍然是一個話題點，但我們在那裡的供應充足。對墨西哥的進展非常滿意。從風險角度來看，我非常看好該市場。總的來說，我還要補充一點，我認為弗朗西斯科帶來的策略轉變專注於主要客戶的主要獲取，從風險角度來看，這給了我很大的信心，因為我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。看看建立特許經營權。

Okay. And then just thinking about the what kind of your stats on your macro assumptions for the Canadian book on Slide 31. And I can just simplify this and you can tell me if I'm way off base or it's a fair assumption. But in your current ACL for Canada for the performing loan side, can we just assume that the unemployment rate is about 7% to 8%. Is that essentially within the probability weighting for the different scenarios and then can you talk a bit about -- I think unemployment is one of the bigger drivers of this. Is it 40% of the variables that caused the change here? Or is it 50% plus? I'm not sure if there's a way you can kind of quantify that.

好的。然後想想你對幻燈片 31 上的加拿大書的宏觀假設有什麼樣的統計數據。我可以簡化這一點，你可以告訴我我是否偏離了基礎，或者這是一個公平的假設。但在目前加拿大履約貸款方的 ACL 中，我們是否可以假設失業率約為 7% 至 8%。這本質上是在不同情境的機率權重範圍內嗎？然後你能談談——我認為失業是造成這種情況的更大驅動因素之一。是40%的變數導致了這裡的變化嗎？還是50%以上？我不確定是否有一種方法可以量化這一點。

Yes. I mean, unemployment rate has a significant impact on our models. But I would also look at the interest rate impact and the result is higher for longer, particularly on some of the retail models. But again, I mean, if you step back and look at the overall build like a good chunk of it or a majority of it, frankly, was in the ECJ section. So a lot of this is our management decision to freight -- just on our thoughtfulness rather on the macro and how we are moving forward in 2024.

是的。我的意思是，失業率對我們的模型有重大影響。但我也會考慮利率的影響，結果在較長時間內會更高，特別是在某些零售模式上。但我的意思是，如果你退後一步看看整體構建，坦率地說，其中很大一部分或大部分都在 ECJ 部分。因此，這在很大程度上是我們對貨運的管理決策——只是基於我們的深思熟慮，而不是宏觀因素以及我們在 2024 年如何前進。

Can you quantify the expert credit judgment or does that something that you'd be willing to get?

你能量化專家的信用判斷嗎？還是這是你願意得到的嗎？

It's about -- if I were to look, it's about 50-50 model and ECJ. And the ECJ will be more weighted towards the towards the business banking side.

如果我看的話，大約是 50-50 模型和 ECJ。歐洲法院將更重視商業銀行業務。

And just a clarification. So my assumption that the unemployment rate built in here, is that -- if I look at it in eyeball at 7% to 8%, is that a reasonable.

只是一個澄清。因此，我對這裡的失業率的假設是——如果我仔細觀察的話，失業率為 7% 到 8%，這是合理的。

Yes, it is.

是的。

The following question is from Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets.

以下問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的達科‧米赫利奇 (Darko Mihelic)。

I have some credit quality questions. But before I go there, I just want to clarify one thing. You mentioned in your remarks that you're planning to operate around 12.5% common equity Tier 1 range for 2024. What is your assumption there with respect to the regulatory environment, whether or not there's any pressure for higher capital?

我有一些信用品質問題。但在我去那裡之前，我只想澄清一件事。您在演講中提到，您計劃在 2024 年營運約 12.5% 的普通股一級資本範圍。您對監管環境有何假設，是否存在提高資本的壓力？

Darko, it's Raj. I think we know the domestic stability buffer can be raised up to a maximum of 50 basis points. That's what's left in the framework. So that takes the minimum to 12% from a regulatory perspective, and that's why the 12.5%. I obviously have no insight into what will happen on December 8 or beyond in 2024, but it's a prudent way to manage it. More importantly for us, right, you'll hear more about it at the Investor Day, how we want to thoughtfully reallocate capital, which means we have to start the efforts well in advance of that so that the strategy can be implemented in the time lines that we want to do it.

達科，我是拉吉。我想我們知道國內穩定緩衝最多可以提升50個基點。這就是框架中剩下的內容。因此，從監管角度來看，最低要求為 12%，這就是為什麼是 12.5%。我顯然不知道 2024 年 12 月 8 日或之後會發生什麼，但這是一種謹慎的管理方式。對我們來說更重要的是，你會在投資者日聽到更多關於它的信息，我們希望如何深思熟慮地重新分配資本，這意味著我們必須提前開始努力，以便能夠及時實施該戰略我們想要做的線。

So just to be clear, Raj, then what you're suggesting is, even if the DSP were raised 50 basis points is considered to be an adequate buffer even with the uncertainty in the environment?

Raj，需要明確的是，您的建議是，即使 DSP 上調 50 個基點，即使環境存在不確定性，也被認為是足夠的緩衝？

Yes. From our perspective, we think it's reasonable. Obviously, if we see signs that we need to run a higher capital ratio, we will Darko, but at this time, we think that's appropriate.

是的。從我們的角度來看，我們認為這是合理的。顯然，如果我們看到有跡象表明我們需要運行更高的資本比率，我們會達科，但此時，我們認為這是合適的。

Okay. Just a couple of quick questions for Phil on the on the credit. When we look at the increase in delinquencies in mortgages, could you maybe give us an idea, is this predominantly coming from the ARM portfolio and when we think about characteristics, are there any defining characteristics or trends that you could point out? I mean I suppose it could be random, but my suspicion is there are some things that or there are some characteristics. And I wonder if you could just share those with us. And as I think about the fixed rate mortgage portfolio renewing in 2024, what we can sort of think about extrapolating from what we're seeing in the ARM portfolio into the fixed rate. I mean any help on that would be very helpful.

好的。只是在信用證上向菲爾提出幾個簡單的問題。當我們看到抵押貸款拖欠率增加時，您能否給我們一個想法，這主要來自 ARM 投資組合嗎？當我們考慮特徵時，您是否可以指出任何明確的特徵或趨勢？我的意思是我認為它可能是隨機的，但我懷疑有些事情或有一些特徵。我想知道你是否可以與我們分享這些。當我考慮 2024 年更新的固定利率抵押貸款投資組合時，我們可以考慮從 ARM 投資組合中看到的情況推斷固定利率。我的意思是任何幫助都會非常有幫助。

Sure. And you're spot on Darko because this is how we've been looking at things, too. So happy to share. I mean we have been seeing 91-plus on the variable rate mortgage portfolio increasing year-over-year. And we've been monitoring that portfolio very closely. Maybe just a few little tidbits of information there. Despite the fact that we've seen customer -- consumer deposits decreasing or savings buffers decreasing. There's still a 2x savings -- 2x payment buffer on the VRM portfolio today. But and as I said in my prepared remarks, we're also seeing for those customers with VRM, their total spend is actually also down 11% year-over-year. So what we're seeing is those customers are feeling the pinch now and they're making trade-offs. So then if I look at fixed, that payment buffer that I said was 2 for VRM is actually at 3.5 for fixed. And so the fixed rate customers holding on to a little bit more of a payment buffer. But we're very conscious of the fact that in '24, we have about 10% of our fixed rate portfolio is repricing and that moves into 20% in 2025 and another 20% in 2026. So we're watching the consumer trends in the consumer behaviors in the VRM and being able to extrapolate some expectations of what may happen on the fixed rate book. Now we are optimistic that we'll see interest rates decrease at the latter half of 2024. So that's built into some of our thinking as well. And then maybe lastly, I can't remember who asked me about tail risk at one of our previous discussions. But maybe just to give an update on where the tail risk is in the mortgage portfolio. We have -- of the less than 1 million customers we have with mortgages in Canada, the tail risk is about 2,500 today. And that's up from about -- that's up about 200 customers quarter-over-quarter and about 1,000 customers year-over-year. Just to give you a sense of sort of people are people are managing through, but they're making trade-offs and some choice -- and difficult choices, obviously.

當然。你很認同達科，因為這也是我們看待事物的方式。很高興分享。我的意思是，我們已經看到 91 以上的可變利率抵押貸款投資組合逐年增加。我們一直在非常密切地監控該投資組合。也許只是一些小資訊。儘管事實上我們已經看到客戶——消費者存款減少或儲蓄緩衝減少。今天，VRM 投資組合仍然可以節省 2 倍——2 倍的支付緩衝。但正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我們也看到，對於那些使用 VRM 的客戶，他們的總支出實際上也比去年同期下降了 11%。所以我們看到的是，這些客戶現在感到手頭拮据，他們正在做出權衡。因此，如果我查看固定支付緩衝區，我所說的 VRM 支付緩衝區為 2，實際上固定支付緩衝區為 3.5。因此，固定利率客戶保留了更多的付款緩衝。但我們非常清楚，在24 年，我們的固定利率投資組合中約有10% 正在重新定價，到2025 年這一比例將增至20%，到2026 年將增至20%。因此，我們正在關注2020 年的消費者趨勢。VRM 中的消費者行為，並能夠推斷出固定利率 帳簿上可能發生的情況的一些預期。現在，我們樂觀地認為，利率將在 2024 年下半年下降。因此，這也融入了我們的一些想法中。也許最後，我不記得誰在我們之前的一次討論中問過我有關尾部風險的問題。但也許只是為了提供抵押貸款組合中尾部風險所在的最新情況。在加拿大擁有抵押貸款的不到 100 萬客戶中，目前尾部風險約為 2,500 個。環比增加約 200 名客戶，較去年同期增加約 1,000 名客戶。只是為了讓你感覺到人們正在經歷某種程度的管理，但他們正在做出權衡和一些選擇——顯然，這是艱難的選擇。

Just to confirm, the way I should think about your variable rate portfolio customers that they have a higher FICO score and generally underwritten a bit tighter than your fixed rate portfolio. Is that still true?

只是為了確認一下，我應該如何看待您的可變利率投資組合客戶，他們擁有更高的 FICO 分數，並且通常比您的固定利率投資組合承保更嚴格。這仍然是真的嗎？

Yes. I mean, we definitely had originations see higher FICO scores. But we also find the VRM customer tends to be a sophisticated customer because they've been playing the rate game within the -- in the market. So there's perhaps a little bit more savvy.

是的。我的意思是，我們肯定有起源看到更高的 FICO 分數。但我們也發現 VRM 客戶往往是成熟的客戶，因為他們一直在市場中玩利率遊戲。所以也許有一點更精明。

And is there any other characteristic you can share, for example, postal code or something like that? (inaudible) higher delinquencies, something. Is there anything else you could provide on any other defining characteristic here?

您是否可以分享任何其他特徵，例如郵遞區號或類似的資訊？ （聽不清楚）拖欠率更高，等等。對於這裡的任何其他定義特徵，您還有什麼可以提供的嗎？

No, it's -- I asked the question on my team last week. What are we seeing from a regional perspective? And it's -- there's no regional trends across the country on this.

不，是——我上周向我的團隊提出了這個問題。從區域角度來看，我們看到了什麼？全國範圍內沒有這方面的區域趨勢。

Following question is from Sohrab Movahedi from BMO Capital Markets.

以下問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Sohrab Movahedi。

Thanks for going over time here. Just 2 quickies, hopefully. Phil, a couple of times when you talked about expert credit judgment. I think you mentioned business banking. Is there a specific pocket within business banking, or industry group or a particular area that's concerning you?

感謝您花時間來到這裡。希望能快點 2 次。菲爾，有幾次你談到專家信用判斷時。我想你提到了商業銀行業務。商業銀行、產業團體或特定領域是否有您感興趣的特定領域？

No. I mean our portfolio -- we have a good portfolio. We've been conservative in our underwriting and criticized for such at some point in time. But we are thoughtful about real estate, as I think everybody is in the market, and we have built specifically for real estate. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we don't have a significant exposure in U.S. office, but we're thoughtful about the markets here in Canada, and we've been building appropriately in the performing side for that.

不，我的意思是我們的投資組合——我們有一個很好的投資組合。我們在核保方面一直很保守，並在某些時候因此受到批評。但我們對房地產深思熟慮，因為我認為每個人都在市場上，我們專門為房地產建造了建築。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的，我們在美國辦事處沒有大量的業務，但我們對加拿大的市場深思熟慮，並且我們一直在為此進行適當的建設。

So that would be specific to the Canadian business banking portfolio, a specific judgment that was exercised.

因此，這將是針對加拿大商業銀行投資組合的，是一項具體的判斷。

Correct.

正確的。

And Raj, I know we've talked over the year or past couple of years, I suppose, about the importance of moderation in the overall rate environment, just given the way you are positioned from an asset liability management perspective. Can you remind us, if we were just going to take a shortcut and take a look at either the 10-year Canadas or the 10-year U.S. like around what sort of levels are you -- would you hit the inflection point where this drag turns into a positive. Look, I know it becomes less of a drag, I suppose, with declining rates. But what are we -- what do we have our eye on? Do we want to get back down to a 10-year 3.5%? Is that Nirvana?

拉吉，我知道我們在過去一年或過去幾年一直在談論整體利率環境中適度調整的重要性，只是考慮到您從資產負債管理角度的定位方式。你能否提醒我們，如果我們只是想走捷徑，看看加拿大的 10 年期債券或美國的 10 年期債券，比如你處於什麼樣的水平，你會遇到這種阻力的拐點嗎？變成積極的。聽著，我想，隨著利率的下降，它不再是一個拖累。但我們是什麼──我們關注什麼？我們想回到 10 年期 3.5% 的水平嗎？這是涅槃嗎？

That will be nice, Sohrab, as you know. I think -- so we took some actions in Q2, right, in 2023 to position the bank to be appropriately depending on the rate situation being higher for longer. And I think that's actually paid off in space because we have done the right thing. It has reduced the level of drag we could have had otherwise based on the positioning that the bank had prior to that. So today, we are positioned neutral to the rate curve in one respect. But the expectation is if the forward rates played out, maybe that's an easier way to think about it, Sohrab at this time, we're going to see some reasonably meaningful benefits to the net interest income line through 2024 and beyond. That's the best we have at this time. For the 3.5% that you quote is when interest rates completely stabilized. And how long that will take is anybody's guess. I think the market's pricing is somewhere around 2025 from what I know. These things do tend to change quite a bit. But at this time, I think we are in my mind and in our minds, positioned the best we can be based on the structure of our balance sheet and how we see the forward rates play out, which is being neutral to it at this time. Higher for longer through a good part of '24 is likely going to be the outcome. And after that, as you point out, when rate cuts come, we're going to benefit.

如你所知，索拉博，那就太好了。我認為，所以我們在 2023 年第二季採取了一些行動，根據較長時間內較高的利率情況，對銀行進行適當定位。我認為這實際上在太空中得到了回報，因為我們做了正確的事情。根據銀行先前的定位，它降低了我們本來可能受到的阻力。因此，今天，我們在某一方面對利率曲線持中性立場。但預期是，如果遠期利率發揮作用，也許這是一種更簡單的思考方式，Sohrab，此時，我們將看到 2024 年及以後的淨利息收入線出現一些相當有意義的好處。這是我們目前最好的。你報的3.5%是利率完全穩定的時候。任何人都在猜測這需要多長時間。據我所知，我認為市場定價在 2025 年左右。這些事情確實會發生很大的變化。但目前，我認為我們已經根據我們的資產負債表結構以及我們如何看待遠期利率的表現，在我的腦海中和我們的腦海中處於最佳位置，目前對此保持中性。在 24 年的大部分時間裡，結果很可能會是長期持續走高。之後，正如您所指出的，當降息到來時，我們將從中受益。

Our following question is from Mike Rizvanovic from KBW Research.

我們以下的問題來自 KBW Research 的 Mike Rizvanovic。

I want to go back to Phil, and I'm just looking for a very high-level guidance here on one specific number. So in looking at your mortgage book, I think you're sitting at a 49 loans to value. I'm just trying to better understand how much of that gets eroded by the process of taking over home and selling it so between commissions, legal, admin, any other costs related to that process, what's a good proxy that we should use based on a percentage of the home price, like is 10% a reasonable number? I guess I asked this question quite a bit by clients. I just want to get your insights on that.

我想回到菲爾，我只是在這裡尋找關於一個特定數字的非常高級的指導。因此，在查看您的抵押貸款帳簿時，我認為您的貸款價值為 49。我只是想更好地了解接管房屋和出售房屋的過程會侵蝕多少費用，因此在佣金、法律、管理以及與該過程相關的任何其他成本之間，我們應該使用什麼好的代理房價的百分比，例如10% 是一個合理的數字嗎？我想我已經被客戶問過很多次這個問題了。我只是想聽聽您對此的見解。

I can start by saying our recovery rates are quite strong in that portfolio, and that's why you don't see higher gross impaired loans coming off the secured portfolio. In terms of holding me to a certain number, I can't give you that number.

首先我可以說，我們在該投資組合中的回收率相當高，這就是為什麼您看不到擔保投資組合中總減損貸款更高的原因。至於讓我堅持某個數字，我不能給你那個數字。

Okay. Does 10% sound unreasonable. I mean the commission alone would probably be close to half of that.

好的。 10%聽起來不合理嗎？我的意思是，光是佣金就可能接近一半。

It doesn't sound unreasonable.

聽起來並不是沒有道理。

Okay. Fair enough. And then just in light of the Finance Minister's recent public comments about the renewal cycle, I wanted to also ask about the hardship rule. And should we now maybe assume that it will be applied more loosely when people do need it? Is it going to -- it's kind of device, and I hear people say that it's very difficult to get the hardship rule applied to your situation and others say that it's probably not so hard. Do you have any thoughts on that and how that might change in light of the Finance Minister's comments?

好的。很公平。然後，鑑於財政部長最近對更新周期的公開評論，我還想詢問有關困難規則的問題。我們現在是否應該假設，當人們確實需要它時，它的應用會更加寬鬆？它會——這是一種手段，我聽到人們說很難將困難規則應用於你的情況，而其他人則說這可能不那麼難。您對此有何想法以及根據財政部長的評論可能會如何改變？

No, I don't have any -- I don't have any thoughts, and I'm not going to comment on that right now.

不，我沒有任何想法，我現在不會對此發表評論。

Okay. And then maybe just a quick one for -- maybe for Raj. Just on the dividend payout ratio. You're a little bit north of 60. I'm wondering, has anything changed for you? Are you comfortable holding to that level that's comfortably above your targeted 40% to 50% range if you're going to be in that high 60s range for an extended period of time, potentially, is that -- does that raise any issues for you at all?

好的。然後也許只是為了——也許是為了拉吉。就股息支付率而言。你已經超過 60 歲了。我想知道，你有什麼改變嗎？如果您要長時間處於 60 多歲的範圍內，那麼您是否願意保持在高於目標 40% 到 50% 範圍的水平，可能是——這會給您帶來任何問題嗎？根本嗎？

No, Mike. It's Raj. I think we do expect to be outside of the range like you've seen in '23 and '24 as well and we're quite comfortable with that. The payout ratio, we want to get back to 40% to 50%, but we know it will take a couple of years because we're going to go through the strategic refresh and how we want to thoughtfully reallocate capital. And to us, that's fine because the 40% to 50% range to keep it there and hopefully achieve it in the next 2 to 3 years, gives us confidence that the earnings power is going to come back for this company, and therefore, the ratio will fall within the range. And it's also our confidence that we're investing wisely and we'll continue to invest wisely looking forward to continue to reduce the payout ratio to achieve, like I said, the 40% to 50%. So for one, we won't change it. We want to achieve that. It will take us a couple of years, and we're quite comfortable operating outside that range until we get there.

不，麥克。是拉吉。我認為我們確實希望能夠超出您在 23 年和 24 年看到的範圍，我們對此感到非常滿意。派息率，我們希望回到 40% 到 50%，但我們知道這需要幾年時間，因為我們將進行策略更新以及我們希望如何深思熟慮地重新分配資本。對我們來說，這很好，因為40% 到50% 的範圍可以保持這一水平，並希望在未來2 到3 年內實現這一目標，這讓我們相信這家公司的盈利能力將會恢復，因此，比率將落在該範圍內。我們也相信，我們正在明智地投資，我們將繼續明智地投資，期待繼續降低派息率，以實現我所說的 40% 至 50%。因此，一方面，我們不會改變它。我們希望實現這一目標。這將需要我們幾年的時間，而且在我們到達那裡之前，我們非常樂意在這個範圍之外進行操作。

Following question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research. Please go ahead.

以下問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Nigel D'Souza。請繼續。

I wanted to touch on the residential mortgage book. And on the decline in the balances we've seen in that portfolio in Canada, could you comment on how much of that was driven by an increase in discharges perhaps from individuals who on the addressable side, are experiencing payment increases and electing to sell the property instead of going delinquent versus lower origination over the last, let's say, 1.5 years due to the rising rates? Any color there would be helpful.

我想談談住宅抵押貸款書。關於我們在加拿大該投資組合中看到的餘額下降，您能否評論一下其中有多少是由於排放量增加造成的，這些排放量增加可能來自可尋址方面正在經歷付款增加並選擇出售該產品的個人。過去（比方說，1.5 年）由於利率上升而導致財產拖欠而不是拖欠貸款？任何顏色都會有幫助。

Sure, Nigel. It's Raj. I'll talk to that. It is not about discharges and realizing on security and so on, like Phil pointed out, the portfolio has been actually performing quite well. People are paying down. So it's not about delinquencies. It's more about our deliberate actions in response to slowing mortgage growth. I think that's across the industry over here, so we're not unique. But we are taking deliberate action to improve the profitability as we ration our capital -- across the bank, not necessarily to the mortgage portfolio. So the 4% decline in the mortgage balances is not something that we are concerned about at this time. It's the approach that we want to take to ensure that we are thoughtfully allocating capital for the highest return that we can achieve from our -- for our investors from the loan book that we put out there. And it's about growing both sides of the balance sheet. We want to be sure that we have a multiproduct relationship. It starts with a mortgage, which is a very important product for us. But the actions that we have taken, I think Scott referred to it, that we have net interest margin expansion in the mortgage book. Some of it driven by the actions we have taken, some of it driven by repricing. But it's not about quality of the book or any sort of delinquency that drove the decline, Nigel.

當然，奈傑爾。是拉吉。我會談談這個。正如菲爾指出的那樣，這與釋放和安全變現等無關，該投資組合實際上表現得相當不錯。人們正在付出代價。所以這不是違約的問題。這更多的是我們為應對抵押貸款成長放緩而採取的深思熟慮的行動。我認為這在整個行業中都是如此，所以我們並不是獨一無二的。但我們正在採取審慎行動來提高獲利能力，因為我們在整個銀行範圍內配給我們的資本，而不一定是抵押貸款組合。因此，抵押貸款餘額下降4%並不是我們目前所擔心的。這是我們希望採取的方法，以確保我們經過深思熟慮地分配資本，以獲得我們可以從我們提供的貸款簿中為我們的投資者帶來的最高回報。這關係到資產負債表兩側的成長。我們希望確保我們擁有多產品關係。首先是抵押貸款，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的產品。但我認為斯科特提到了我們所採取的行動，即我們的抵押貸款淨利差有所擴大。其中一些是由我們採取的行動驅動的，另一些則是由重新定價所驅動的。但這與書籍的品質或任何類型的違法行為無關，導致了衰落，奈傑爾。

That's helpful. And just following up on the provisions on the mortgage book. I think there was a comment on taking account collateral values. And just trying to understand why collateral values would be at play given your healthy LTV ratios. It's only up from I understand that 2021, 2022 vintages that would be at risk of having a loan-to-value closer to 100%. So is that what you're expecting in terms of modeling in? And why would those individuals be susceptible to default if they're not adjustable given that the renewal is still a couple of years off.

這很有幫助。並且只是跟進抵押書上的規定。我認為有人評論說要考慮抵押品價值。只是想了解為什麼抵押品價值會在您健康的 LTV 比率下發揮作用。據我了解，2021 年和 2022 年年份的貸款價值可能接近 100%。那麼這就是您對建模的期望嗎？考慮到續約還有幾年時間，如果這些人不可調整，為什麼他們會容易違約。

Just to be clear, Nigel, the comment I made in my prepared remarks was related to business banking and the real estate -- our commercial real estate portfolio, not the mortgage portfolio.

需要澄清的是，奈傑爾，我在準備好的發言中發表的評論與商業銀行和房地產有關——我們的商業房地產投資組合，而不是抵押貸款投資組合。

Okay. That's very helpful. And my last question, just the 2024 outlook on EPS growth, does that assume PCLs at the midpoint of your guidance, so 50 basis points for 2024?

好的。這非常有幫助。我的最後一個問題，即 2024 年每股收益成長的前景，是否假設 PCL 位於您指導的中點，即 2024 年為 50 個基點？

Yes, that's about the assumption. I think Phil talked about 45% to 55%. I think 50 basis points is a reasonable assumption to the EPS growth numbers, so I spoke about Nigel.

是的，這就是假設。我認為 Phil 談到了 45% 到 55%。我認為 50 個基點是對 EPS 成長數字的合理假設，所以我談到了 Nigel。

Following question is from Lemar Persaud from Cormark Securities.

以下問題來自 Cormark Securities 的 Lemar Persaud。

Maybe for Raj or Scott, I think you guys mentioned a more modest first half of 2024, an acceleration in the second half. Can you talk about what assumptions to that outlook? Like is the recovery in the second half hinged solely on lower interest rates and what happens if rates remain elevated.

也許對 Raj 或 Scott 來說，我想你們提到了 2024 年上半年比較溫和，下半年加速。您能談談對這一前景的假設嗎？就像下半年的復甦完全取決於較低的利率，以及如果利率保持在高點會發生什麼。

Thanks, Lemar. It's Raj. I think there's 2 factors. I'll speak about the first half and how it relates to Q4. We want to be clear that Q4 really is like $1.50 quarter, right? If you take out the ACL build, so building off that, we think you should see growth in Q1, Q2. One of the items is -- the other segment is expected to be slightly better than the $487 million that you saw this quarter because there's a couple of one-off items relating to certain investments we had and lack of securities gains. So that should help with the first half. The second half is not hinging too much on interest rate declines. I think we have whatever the market has 3 rate cuts towards the latter end of 2024, which doesn't have a meaningful impact to the results. What it does have is 2 things. One is we're going to have a lot of the expense savings we talked about, the productivity initiatives, which kind of kicks into the second half of the year to be meaningful because a lot of the exits are still going to be effective in the first half of the year. So that's a benefit. And the second thing is asset repricing. What you've already seen in the mortgage book in the Canadian bank as well as an international banking for that matter, that should continue to happen. Rate cuts are expected to be accelerated in the international banking space. You've already seen that margin expand this quarter. So those benefits will come in, in the latter part of the year, and that's why we feel like the second half will be better than the first half.

謝謝，勒馬爾。是拉吉。我認為有兩個因素。我將談論上半部分以及它與第四季度的關係。我們想明確的是，第四季的價格確實是 1.​​50 美元，對吧？如果您去掉 ACL 構建，那麼在此基礎上，我們認為您應該會在第一季和第二季看到成長。其中一項是——另一部分預計將略好於本季的 4.87 億美元，因為有一些一次性項目與我們擁有的某些投資和缺乏證券收益有關。所以這應該對上半場有幫助。下半年並不太受利率下降的影響。我認為市場在 2024 年底之前會進行 3 次降息，但這不會對結果產生有意義的影響。它確實有兩件事。一是我們將節省大量的開支，我們談到了生產力計劃，這在下半年開始是有意義的，因為許多退出在未來仍然有效。今年上半年。所以這是一個好處。第二件事是資產重新定價。您已經在加拿大銀行以及國際銀行的抵押貸款簿中看到了這種情況，這種情況應該會繼續發生。預計國際銀行業將加速降息。您已經看到本季利潤率有所擴大。因此，這些好處將在今年下半年顯現，這就是為什麼我們認為下半年會比上半年更好。

Got you. That makes sense. And then maybe turning over to Phil. Can you talk about what the biggest risks are for PCLs coming in above that 45% to 55% range. Like based on where you sit today, would you suggests it's simply unemployment because that's obviously the most important input. But maybe you feel good about that assumption and maybe it's the uncertainty in the path of interest rates. So maybe talk about the inputs that give you the most forecast uncertainty and keep you up at night? And then to what geographies that you're most concerned with? I suspect you're going to point to the international portfolio, but maybe it's domestic.

明白你了。這就說得通了。然後也許會轉向菲爾。您能否談談 PCL 高於 45% 至 55% 範圍的最大風險是什麼？就像根據您今天坐的位置一樣，您是否會認為這只是失業，因為這顯然是最重要的輸入。但也許你對這個假設感覺很好，也許這是利率路徑的不確定性。那麼，也許可以談談那些帶給你最大預測不確定性並讓你徹夜難眠的輸入？那麼您最關心哪些地區呢？我懷疑你會指的是國際投資組合，但也許是國內投資組合。

Thanks, Lemar. Obviously, whenever you look at Canada and whenever you look at uncertainty, you have to look at unemployment. And so you said that you got it one. I mean we're very -- we're laser focused on watching unemployment. We're also looking at the effects of higher rates we're looking at the as I said in my earlier comments to Darko's question, the variable rate mortgage portfolio and the fixed rate mortgage portfolios are performing very well right now. And so I'm very thoughtful about trade-offs. So our customers making trading off paying another product to pay their mortgage. And so we're very focused on looking at payment flows off us outside the bank and to see if customers are paying another product somewhere else and vice versa. So looking at the data, looking at payment flows, looking at how customers are weathering the higher for longer and obviously very, very focused on interest rates. In terms of geography, I think IB is stabilized from where it was last year. As I said, I'm bullish about Mexico. I think there's great opportunity there. And right now, we're very, very focused on what's going on in the Canadian market.

謝謝，勒馬爾。顯然，每當你關注加拿大以及不確定性時，你都必須關注失業率。所以你說你得到了它。我的意思是，我們非常關注失業情況。我們也在研究利率上升的影響，正如我在先前對達科問題的評論中所說，可變利率抵押貸款投資組合和固定利率抵押貸款投資組合目前表現非常好。所以我對權衡非常考慮。因此，我們的客戶需要權衡支付另一種產品來支付抵押貸款。因此，我們非常關注銀行以外的付款流，並了解客戶是否在其他地方支付另一種產品，反之亦然。因此，查看數據，查看支付流程，查看客戶如何在較長時間內承受較高的壓力，並且顯然非常非常關注利率。就地理分佈而言，我認為 IB 較去年已趨於穩定。正如我所說，我看好墨西哥。我認為那裡有很好的機會。現在，我們非常非常關注加拿大市場的情況。

Got you. And then is there any way that we can think about the top end for the ACL ratio. Like I think you guys touched 125 basis points at the peak of the pandemic. There are 85 currently. Maybe it's just an unreasonably high watermark, just given that, that was a health crisis. That's clearly not where we're going into now. Like is there any way we can kind of size up what that ratio could look like over time?

明白你了。那我們有什麼方法可以考慮 ACL 比率的上限。我認為你們在疫情最嚴重的時候觸及了 125 個基點。目前有85個。也許這只是一個不合理的高水位線，鑑於這是一場健康危機。這顯然不是我們現在要討論的。就像我們有什麼方法可以衡量隨著時間的推移該比率會是什麼樣子？

Yes. Listen, I think we're comfortable with where we are right now. And as we look at expanding our business as we look at our risk appetite, as we look at how our business develops, we'll take -- perform the appropriate performing ACLs in line with business growth moving forward, but I feel where we are right now is good.

是的。聽著，我想我們對現在的處境感到滿意。當我們考慮擴大業務時，當我們考慮風險偏好時，當我們考慮業務如何發展時，我們將根據未來的業務成長來執行適當的 ACL，但我覺得我們現在所處的位置現在很好。

We have no further questions from the line. Back to you.

我們沒有進一步的問題。回到你身邊。

Thank you. On behalf of the entire management team, I want to thank everyone for participating in our call today. We look forward to speaking again at our December 13 Investor Day. This concludes our fourth quarter results call. Have a great day.

謝謝。我謹代表整個管理團隊感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待在 12 月 13 日投資者日再次發表演說。我們的第四季業績電話會議到此結束。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。