Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) 2019 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Booking Holdings' Third Quarter 2019 Conference Call.

歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 2019 年第三季度電話會議。

Booking Holdings would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Booking Holdings 提醒大家，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款作出的。

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

這些前瞻性陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並受某些難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Therefore, actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements.

因此，實際結果可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中明示、暗示或預測的結果存在重大差異。

Expressions of future goals or expectations and similar expressions, reflecting something other than historical fact are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

未來目標或期望的表達以及類似的表達，反映歷史事實以外的事物，旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

For a list of factors that could cause Booking Holdings' actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the safe harbor statement at the end of Booking Holdings' earnings press release as well as Booking Holdings' most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致 Booking Holdings 的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異的因素列表，請參閱 Booking Holdings 收益新聞稿末尾的安全港聲明以及 Booking Holdings 最最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Unless required by law, Booking Holdings undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除非法律要求，否則 Booking Holdings 沒有義務公開更新任何前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

A copy of Booking Holdings' earnings press release, together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement, is available in the For Investors section of Booking Holdings' website, www.bookingholdings.com.

Booking Holdings 的收益新聞稿副本以及隨附的財務和統計補充資料可在 Booking Holdings 網站 www.bookingholdings.com 的投資者部分獲取。

And now I'd like to introduce Booking Holdings' speakers for this afternoon, Glenn Fogel and David Goulden.

現在我想介紹一下 Booking Holdings 今天下午的發言人 Glenn Fogel 和 David Goulden。

Go ahead, gentlemen.

來吧，先生們。

Thank you, and welcome to Booking Holdings' third quarter conference call.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 第三季度電話會議。

I'm joined this afternoon by our CFO, David Goulden.

今天下午，我們的首席財務官戴維·古爾登 (David Goulden) 加入了我的行列。

We executed well in our busiest quarter of the year as we booked 223 million or almost 0.25 billion room nights, which is up 11% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our guidance range.

我們在今年最繁忙的季度表現良好，預訂了 2.23 億間夜，即近 2.5 億間夜，同比增長 11%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

We are pleased that room night growth has been reasonably consistent this year.

我們很高興今年間夜量增長相當穩定。

We produced over $5 billion in revenue and approximately $2.5 billion in EBITDA, which are year-over-year increases of approximately 7% and 8%, respectively, on a constant currency basis.

我們創造了超過 50 億美元的收入和約 25 億美元的 EBITDA，按固定匯率計算，同比分別增長約 7% 和 8%。

While we believe these financial results show that we have meaningful size and scale, we note that against a very large global travel market opportunity, we are still a small share of the marketplace, which means we have substantial opportunity in front of us.

雖然我們相信這些財務結果表明我們擁有有意義的規模和規模，但我們注意到，儘管全球旅遊市場機會非常大，但我們在市場中的份額仍然很小，這意味著我們面前有大量機會。

I am pleased that our performance this quarter delivered better-than-expected room night growth driven by solid growth in our direct channel, though I note that we continue to witness slower growth in our pay channels.

我很高興我們本季度的業績在直接渠道的穩健增長的推動下實現了好於預期的間夜增長，儘管我注意到我們繼續目睹付費渠道的增長放緩。

And while we look to find ways to drive growth through the pay channels, we will remain disciplined and will invest only if we like the quality of traffic and the associated return on investment.

雖然我們希望找到通過付費渠道推動增長的方法，但我們將保持自律，並且只有在我們喜歡流量質量和相關投資回報時才會進行投資。

We remain firmly in execution mode as we work to deliver against our goal of extending our lead in core accommodations market through key initiatives in customer acquisition, merchandising, our payments platform and improving the selection of properties on our websites.

我們仍然堅定地執行模式，因為我們努力實現我們的目標，即通過客戶獲取、商品銷售、我們的支付平台和改進我們網站上的物業選擇方面的關鍵舉措，擴大我們在核心住宿市場的領先地位。

We expect these initiatives to improve customer conversion and drive incremental growth from our existing demand channels.

我們希望這些舉措能夠提高客戶轉化率並推動我們現有需求渠道的增量增長。

We continue to execute against our long-term strategy of building the connected trip with Booking.com recently launching a flight offering in certain European countries.

我們繼續執行我們的長期戰略，即通過 Booking.com 建立連接旅行，最近在某些歐洲國家推出航班服務。

The launch is still in its very early days.

發布仍處於早期階段。

And we will continue to make product enhancements and improve the customer experience to create what we believe will be a better offering over time.

我們將繼續改進產品並改善客戶體驗，以創造我們相信隨著時間的推移會更好的產品。

We remain excited as our long-term vision of the connected trip is being translated into new Booking.com services.

我們對互聯旅行的長期願景正在轉化為新的 Booking.com 服務，我們對此感到非常興奮。

We believe the connected trip has tremendous potential to create a more robust travel ecosystem that will result in greater loyalty and engagement for Booking.com's very large active customer base, and it is an opportunity for our large supplier base to merchandise their offerings.

我們相信互聯旅行具有創造更強大的旅游生態系統的巨大潛力，這將為 Booking.com 龐大的活躍客戶群帶來更高的忠誠度和參與度，這也是我們龐大的供應商群推銷其產品的機會。

In conjunction with priceline.com, Agoda has also launched a flight product that is initially focused on select countries in the APAC markets, which we believe will complement its existing accommodations offering.

與 priceline.com 一起，Agoda 還推出了一款航班產品，該產品最初專注於亞太地區市場的特定國家/地區，我們相信這將補充其現有的住宿產品。

I am proud of our inter-brand cooperation and development of this product, which demonstrates how we are able to leverage our deep travel expertise across our company to build new services.

我為我們的品牌間合作和該產品的開發感到自豪，它展示了我們如何能夠利用我們公司深厚的旅行專業知識來構建新服務。

We look forward to introducing other areas of collaboration across the brands in the future.

我們期待在未來引入跨品牌的其他合作領域。

We are also excited to announce our partnership with Grab is now showing tangible benefits to our customers.

我們也很高興地宣布，我們與 Grab 的合作夥伴關係正在為我們的客戶帶來實實在在的好處。

One of the goals of the partnership is to give Booking.com app users access to the largest fleet of drivers across 8 countries in Southeast Asia, providing our customers traveling in these countries a frictionless experience, removing language and currency barriers.

該合作夥伴關係的目標之一是讓 Booking.com 應用程序用戶可以使用東南亞 8 個國家/地區最大的司機車隊，為我們在這些國家/地區旅行的客戶提供順暢的體驗，消除語言和貨幣障礙。

Right now, Booking.com app users can access Grab services in Singapore, and we will be expanding this service to Indonesia and Thailand by the end of the year and to the remaining markets by early 2020.

目前，Booking.com 應用程序用戶可以在新加坡使用 Grab 服務，我們將在今年年底將這項服務擴展到印度尼西亞和泰國，並在 2020 年初擴展到其餘市場。

Another point to note about the partnership is Grab previously introduced a connection to hotel bookings through its own Grab app using both Agoda and Booking.com.

關於合作夥伴關係的另一點需要注意的是，Grab 之前使用 Agoda 和 Booking.com 通過自己的 Grab 應用程序引入了與酒店預訂的連接。

In our alternative accommodations business, Booking.com continues to build richer content for both its customers and supply partners.

在我們的替代住宿業務中，Booking.com 繼續為其客戶和供應合作夥伴構建更豐富的內容。

Booking.com recently announced a series of new tools and product enhancements specifically designed to help professional, short-term rental partners more effectively market and simplify the day-to-day management of their properties on Booking.com's platform.

Booking.com 最近宣布推出一系列新工具和產品增強功能，專門用於幫助專業的短期租賃合作夥伴在 Booking.com 的平台上更有效地營銷和簡化其物業的日常管理。

In terms of our listings count, Booking.com's total alternative accommodation listings now stand at over 6.2 million as of September 30.

就房源數量而言，截至 9 月 30 日，Booking.com 的備選住宿房源總數現已超過 620 萬。

A key goal continues to be improving both the quality and variety of our listings in this area.

一個關鍵目標仍然是提高我們在這一領域的列表的質量和種類。

We are encouraged with the progress in alternative accommodations business and continue to witness growth outpacing our overall business while maintaining solid profitability.

我們對替代住宿業務的進展感到鼓舞，並繼續見證超過我們整體業務的增長，同時保持穩健的盈利能力。

In regards to the overall global travel market, we believe it is generally healthy but see some mixed results in geographies throughout the world.

關於整個全球旅遊市場，我們認為它總體上是健康的，但在世界各地看到了一些好壞參半的結果。

Europe remains stable but is still impacted by somewhat sluggish GDP growth, which is consistent with what we have seen throughout most of the year.

歐洲保持穩定，但仍受到 GDP 增長緩慢的影響，這與我們在今年大部分時間看到的情況一致。

Southeast Asia continues to grow nicely.

東南亞繼續保持良好增長。

However, markets like China, and particularly Hong Kong, are placing pressure on our overall growth rate due to certain macro events.

然而，由於某些宏觀事件，中國，尤其是香港等市場正在對我們的整體增長率施加壓力。

International travel into the United States has been negatively impacted by a strong dollar.

強勢美元對進入美國的國際旅行產生了負面影響。

Like this year has shown, though, our global scale has helped us navigate a tricky macro environment, and we remain confident that we will continue to do so in the future.

不過，正如今年所表明的那樣，我們的全球規模幫助我們度過了一個棘手的宏觀環境，我們仍然有信心在未來繼續這樣做。

In conclusion, I am very pleased with our performance in the third quarter, and we remain confident that the efforts we are making now will support the long-term growth prospects of the company.

總之，我對我們第三季度的業績感到非常滿意，我們仍然相信我們現在所做的努力將支持公司的長期增長前景。

I want to thank our over 26,000 employees for their hard work and dedication during the busy third quarter, providing unparalleled service to both our customers and supplier partners around the world.

我要感謝我們超過 26,000 名員工在繁忙的第三季度的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，他們為我們在全球的客戶和供應商合作夥伴提供了無與倫比的服務。

I will now turn the call over to our CFO, David Goulden, for the detailed financial review.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席財務官大衛·古爾登 (David Goulden)，以進行詳細的財務審查。

Thank you, Glenn, and good afternoon.

謝謝你，格倫，下午好。

I'll review our operating results for the third quarter and then discuss our guidance for the fourth quarter.

我將回顧我們第三季度的經營業績，然後討論我們對第四季度的指導。

All growth rates are relative to the prior year comparable period, unless otherwise indicated.

除非另有說明，否則所有增長率均與上年同期相比。

Information regarding reconciliation to GAAP can be found in our earnings release.

有關與 GAAP 對賬的信息可以在我們的收益發布中找到。

Now for our results for the quarter.

現在是我們本季度的結果。

Our booked room night growth of 11% for the quarter exceeded the high end of our guidance range.

我們本季度的預訂間夜增長率為 11%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Our room night growth in Europe continue to exceed our expectations this quarter despite a macro environment that remains cautious.

儘管宏觀環境仍然謹慎，但本季度我們在歐洲的間夜增長繼續超出我們的預期。

Room night growth rates for the rest of the world also exceeded our expectations and grew approximately in line with Europe in Q3.

世界其他地區的間夜增長率也超出了我們的預期，並且在第三季度與歐洲的增長率大致持平。

Average daily rates for accommodations or ADRs were down about 3% year-over-year in Q3 on a constant currency basis, which was a larger decline than our guidance of down about 2.5%.

按固定匯率計算，第三季度住宿或 ADR 的平均每日房價同比下降約 3%，降幅大於我們指引的約 2.5% 的降幅。

The year-on-year ADR decline was impacted by decreases in rates within several key markets such as the U.S., Japan and Hong Kong as well as an increased mix to faster-growing, lower ADR markets.

ADR 的同比下降受到美國、日本和香港等幾個主要市場利率下降以及增長更快、ADR 較低的市場組合增加的影響。

The increasing pressure on ADRs we're seeing in the second half of the year is influenced by lapping about a 1% growth in ADRs in the second half last year and by a number of macroeconomic-driven factors, including less travel in key international corridors due to trade and political issues as well as the strength of the U.S. dollar.

我們在今年下半年看到的 ADR 壓力越來越大，這是受到去年下半年 ADR 增長約 1% 以及一些宏觀經濟驅動因素的影響，包括主要國際走廊的旅行減少由於貿易和政治問題以及美元走強。

Changes in foreign exchange rates reduced Q3 growth rates in U.S. dollars by approximately 3 percentage points versus last year.

外匯匯率的變化使以美元計算的第三季度增長率與去年相比下降了約 3 個百分點。

We estimate that changes in FX rates impacted gross bookings, revenue, EBITDA and EPS growth in Q3 by a similar amount.

我們估計，匯率的變化對第三季度的總預訂量、收入、EBITDA 和 EPS 增長產生了類似的影響。

Q3 gross bookings grew by 4% expressed in U.S. dollars and grew by about 7% on a constant currency basis, coming in above the high end of our guidance range.

第三季度總預訂量以美元計算增長了 4%，按固定匯率計算增長了約 7%，高於我們指導範圍的高端。

Consolidated revenue for the third quarter was $5 billion and grew by 4% in U.S. dollars and about 7% on a constant currency basis.

第三季度的合併收入為 50 億美元，按美元計算增長 4%，按固定匯率計算增長約 7%。

Advertising and other revenue, which is mainly comprised of KAYAK and OpenTable, grew by 12% in Q3.

主要由 KAYAK 和 OpenTable 組成的廣告和其他收入在第三季度增長了 12%。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $2.5 billion, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range and was up 5% year-over-year on a reported basis and about 8% on a constant currency basis.

第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 25 億美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，按報告基礎同比增長 5%，按固定匯率計算增長約 8%。

Performance marketing expense declined 2% year-over-year, which helped drive leverage of about 150 basis points in the quarter.

績效營銷費用同比下降 2%，這有助於推動本季度的槓桿率提高約 150 個基點。

This leverage was driven by an increased mix in room nights from the direct channel, which continues to grow faster than our paid channels.

這種槓桿作用是由直接渠道的間夜組合增加所推動的，該渠道的增長速度繼續快於我們的付費渠道。

While we'll keep working to grow our direct channel over time, we continue to see performance marketing channels as an efficient way to acquire customers, and we'll maintain our approach to spend rationally in these channels.

隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續努力發展我們的直接渠道，同時我們繼續將績效營銷渠道視為獲取客戶的有效方式，並且我們將保持在這些渠道中合理支出的方法。

We spent $124 million on brand marketing in the quarter, which represented a decline of 22% versus Q3 last year, contributing about 80 basis points of leverage.

本季度我們在品牌營銷上花費了 1.24 億美元，與去年第三季度相比下降了 22%，貢獻了約 80 個基點的槓桿作用。

As we mentioned on our Q2 earnings call in August, we are refining and focusing our brand spend in the second half of this year.

正如我們在 8 月份的第二季度財報電話會議上提到的那樣，我們將在今年下半年完善和集中我們的品牌支出。

Sales and other expense grew 13% versus Q3 of last year and contributed about 50 basis points of deleverage primarily due to the growth of our payment platform at Booking.com.

銷售和其他費用與去年第三季度相比增長了 13%，並貢獻了約 50 個基點的去槓桿化，這主要是由於我們在 Booking.com 支付平台的增長。

Sales and other grew slower than merchant gross bookings of 36% in the quarter due to lower growth in certain payment-related expenses.

由於某些支付相關費用的增長放緩，本季度銷售額和其他業務的增長低於商戶總預訂量 36%。

Personnel expense came in slightly lower than our forecast and contributed a small amount of deleverage in the quarter.

人事費用略低於我們的預期，並在本季度貢獻了少量的去槓桿作用。

Finally, G&A expenses increased 41% year-over-year on a non-GAAP basis.

最後，按非美國通用會計準則計算，G&A 費用同比增長 41%。

Note that non-GAAP G&A expenses in Q3 last year excluded a $23 million travel transaction tax charge, which negatively impacted GAAP results in the prior year.

請注意，去年第三季度的非 GAAP G&A 費用不包括 2300 萬美元的旅遊交易稅費用，這對上一年的 GAAP 結果產生了負面影響。

Non-GAAP G&A expenses contributed about 120 basis points of deleverage in the quarter driven by a $29 million year-to-date impact from the French digital services tax as well as an additional $10 million related to travel transaction taxes from prior periods.

非 GAAP G&A 費用在本季度貢獻了約 120 個基點的去槓桿化，這是受法國數字服務稅年初至今的 2900 萬美元影響以及與前期旅遊交易稅相關的額外 1000 萬美元的推動。

Our non-GAAP EPS was $45.36, up 20% versus the prior year.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 45.36 美元，比上年增長 20%。

Adjusted for currency, non-GAAP EPS grew about 24% in the quarter.

經貨幣調整後，非 GAAP 每股收益在本季度增長了約 24%。

Non-GAAP net income reflects a non-GAAP tax rate of 18.8% in Q3, which is lower than the prior year due to a provision of the Tax Act which was clarified in Q4 of last year.

非 GAAP 淨收入反映了第三季度 18.8% 的非 GAAP 稅率，由於去年第四季度闡明的稅法規定，該稅率低於上一年。

Our 10% lower share count in Q3 benefited EPS in the quarter.

我們在第三季度減少 10% 的股票數量使該季度的每股收益受益。

On a GAAP basis, operating income increased by 5% and GAAP operating margin increased by 70 basis points compared to Q3 last year.

按 GAAP 計算，與去年第三季度相比，營業收入增長了 5%，GAAP 營業利潤率增長了 70 個基點。

Q3 GAAP net income amounted to $1.95 billion or $45.54 per share, up 23% from Q3 2018.

第三季度 GAAP 淨收入為 19.5 億美元或每股 45.54 美元，比 2018 年第三季度增長 23%。

Our Q3 GAAP net income includes $49 million of pretax unrealized losses on our equity investments in Ctrip and Meituan and $72 million of FX remeasurement gains on our eurobonds.

我們第三季度的 GAAP 淨收入包括我們在攜程和美團的股權投資的 4900 萬美元稅前未實現虧損以及我們歐元債券的 7200 萬美元外匯重新計量收益。

We excluded these unrealized losses and remeasurement gains from our non-GAAP results.

我們從我們的非 GAAP 結果中排除了這些未實現的損失和重新衡量的收益。

We had a GAAP tax rate of 17.5% for the quarter, which decreased from 21.1% in the prior year due to beneficial adjustments made in Q3 2019 related to the Tax Act that were excluded from our non-GAAP results and from the factors I mentioned that impacted non-GAAP tax rates.

我們本季度的 GAAP 稅率為 17.5%，低於上一年的 21.1%，這是由於 2019 年第三季度與稅法相關的有益調整被排除在我們的非 GAAP 結果和我提到的因素之外這影響了非 GAAP 稅率。

In Q3, we generated $1.9 billion of operating cash flow, which decreased 6% compared to Q3 last year.

第三季度，我們產生了 19 億美元的運營現金流，與去年第三季度相比下降了 6%。

Our free cash flow for the quarter was $1.8 billion, which decreased by 4% compared to the prior year mainly due to seasonal effects from a higher mix of merchant revenues and the impact this has in the third quarter due to high concentration of check-ins.

我們本季度的自由現金流為 18 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 4%，這主要是由於商戶收入組合較高帶來的季節性影響，以及由於簽到高度集中而對第三季度產生的影響.

During the course of the year, we expect the growth of our merchant business will be a modest positive driver of cash flow.

在這一年中，我們預計商戶業務的增長將適度推動現金流。

We purchased $1.3 billion of our stock in Q3, bringing the amount remaining under our $15 billion repurchase authorization to about $12.9 billion at the end of the quarter.

我們在第三季度購買了 13 億美元的股票，使我們 150 億美元回購授權下的剩餘金額在本季度末達到約 129 億美元。

We continue to expect to complete this authorization in the next 2 to 3 years, assuming stable business and market conditions.

假設業務和市場條件穩定，我們繼續期望在未來 2 至 3 年內完成此授權。

We ended the quarter with $11.8 billion in cash and investments and $8.6 billion of outstanding debt.

本季度結束時，我們擁有 118 億美元的現金和投資以及 86 億美元的未償債務。

Before turning to our guidance, we note that the returns from our growth investments for the year are tracking in line with what we said last quarter, and we still expect these investments to impact EBITDA growth for the full year by a few percentage points.

在轉向我們的指導之前，我們注意到我們今年增長投資的回報與我們上個季度所說的一致，我們仍然預計這些投資將影響全年 EBITDA 增長幾個百分點。

Let's now turn our attention to Q4 guidance.

現在讓我們把注意力轉向第四季度的指導。

Foreign exchange rates are expected to negatively impact year-over-year growth rates for gross bookings, revenue, EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS by approximately 1.5 percentage points.

預計外匯匯率將對總預訂量、收入、EBITDA 和非 GAAP 每股收益的同比增長率產生約 1.5 個百分點的負面影響。

We use a dollar-to-euro exchange rate of $1.11 when setting our Q4 guidance.

在設定第四季度指導時，我們使用 1.11 美元的美元兌歐元匯率。

Our Q4 outlook does not anticipate any change in the macro environment.

我們的第四季度展望預計宏觀環境不會發生任何變化。

Based on where we are in the quarter and looking at all other factors, we are forecasting booked room nights to grow by 6% to 8% in Q4.

根據我們在本季度的情況並考慮所有其他因素，我們預測第四季度的預訂間夜數將增長 6% 至 8%。

We forecast gross bookings to grow 2% to 4% on a constant currency basis and about 150 basis points less in U.S. dollars.

我們預測按固定匯率計算，總預訂量將增長 2% 至 4%，按美元計算將減少約 150 個基點。

Our Q4 forecast assumes constant currency ADRs for the company will be down about 4% driven by the same factors that impacted Q3 ADRs.

我們的第四季度預測假設公司的固定貨幣 ADR 將下降約 4%，原因與影響第三季度 ADR 的因素相同。

A number of these factors are occurring in Asia, and Asia is a seasonally larger quarter in Q3.

其中一些因素正在亞洲發生，亞洲是第三季度季節性較大的季度。

We forecast Q4 revenue to be up 1% to 3% on a constant currency basis and by about 150 basis points less in U.S. dollars.

我們預測第四季度收入按固定匯率計算將增長 1% 至 3%，按美元計算將減少約 150 個基點。

Q4 adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $1.21 billion and $1.235 billion, which is approximately flat year-on-year on a constant currency basis.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 12.1 億美元至 12.35 億美元之間，按固定匯率計算，同比大致持平。

We are forecasting continued leverage from the performance marketing expense line in Q4, reflecting low volumes in paid channels and our continued focus on acquiring high-quality traffic.

我們預測第四季度績效營銷費用線將繼續發揮槓桿作用，反映出付費渠道的低流量以及我們繼續專注於獲取高質量流量。

We expect to see continued leverage of brand spend in Q4.

我們預計第四季度品牌支出將繼續發揮作用。

Although we've reduced our brand spending in the second half of the year, we still expect to grow our brand spend for the full year.

儘管我們在下半年減少了品牌支出，但我們仍預計全年會增加品牌支出。

We expect growth in personnel expenses to reduce EBITDA growth by several percentage points in the quarter due to an expected lower year-end reversal of bonus accruals than we experienced last Q4.

我們預計人事費用的增長將使本季度的 EBITDA 增長減少幾個百分點，因為預計年底應計獎金的逆轉低於我們去年第四季度的水平。

Sales and other expense is expected to grow slower than merchant bookings growth but faster than overall revenue growth.

銷售和其他費用的增長預計將慢於商戶預訂增長，但快於整體收入增長。

We are forecasting Q4 non-GAAP EPS of approximately $21.50 to $22 even.

我們預測第四季度非 GAAP 每股收益約為 21.50 美元至 22 美元。

Normalizing for constant currency, we estimate Q4 non-GAAP EPS to decrease year-over-year by approximately 1% to 3%.

將固定匯率標準化後，我們估計第 4 季度非 GAAP 每股收益將同比下降約 1% 至 3%。

This range for Q4 implies a full year constant currency non-GAAP EPS growth rate of about 13%, which is in line with our full year expectation for low double-digit growth.

第 4 季度的這一範圍意味著全年不變貨幣非 GAAP 每股收益增長率約為 13%，這符合我們對低兩位數增長的全年預期。

Our non-GAAP EPS forecast for Q4 include an estimated income tax rate of approximately 19%, which is significantly higher than Q4 last year due to onetime adjustment of approximately $72 million in Q4 2018 related to a provision of the Tax Act that was clarified by regulatory guidance issued in Q4 of 2018.

我們對第 4 季度的非 GAAP 每股收益預測包括約 19% 的估計所得稅率，這大大高於去年第 4 季度，這是由於 2018 年第 4 季度與稅法規定相關的一次性調整約 7200 萬美元2018 年第四季度發布的監管指南。

If we exclude the onetime benefit from Q4 last year, our EPS growth in the quarter will be about 7% higher.

如果我們排除去年第四季度的一次性收益，我們本季度的每股收益增長將高出約 7%。

We expect our full year non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 19% compared with 18.3% last year.

我們預計全年非公認會計原則稅率約為 19%，而去年為 18.3%。

Our Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance assumes a fully diluted share count of approximately 42.2 million shares, which is 9% below Q4 of last year.

我們的第四季度非 GAAP 每股收益指引假設完全攤薄後的股票數量約為 4220 萬股，比去年第四季度低 9%。

We forecast GAAP EPS between $20.40 and $20.90 for Q4.

我們預測第四季度的 GAAP 每股收益在 20.40 美元至 20.90 美元之間。

Our GAAP EPS guidance for Q4 assumes a tax rate of approximately 19%.

我們對第 4 季度的 GAAP 每股收益指引假設稅率約為 19%。

We have hedge contracts in place to substantially shield our fourth quarter EBITDA and net income from any further fluctuations in currencies versus the dollar between now and the end of the quarter, but the hedges do not protect our gross bookings, revenue or operating profit from the impact of foreign currency fluctuations.

從現在到本季度末，我們制定了對沖合約，以大幅保護我們第四季度的 EBITDA 和淨收入免受貨幣兌美元進一步波動的影響，但對沖並不能保護我們的總預訂量、收入或營業利潤免受外匯波動的影響。

We'll now take your questions.

我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney of RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mark Mahaney。

Great.

偉大的。

Two questions, please.

請教兩個問題。

Could you talk about whether you're seeing any pressures in SEO channels, whether that's become less viable for you as a source of traffic?

您能否談談您是否在 SEO 渠道中看到任何壓力，作為流量來源對您來說是否變得不那麼可行了？

And then, Glenn, you talked about paid marketing channels and trying to diversify amongst them.

然後，格倫，你談到了付費營銷渠道並試圖在其中實現多元化。

Can you talk about how you do that?

你能談談你是怎麼做到的嗎？

I know this is something that the company has looked to do for many years.

我知道這是公司多年來一直希望做的事情。

Just how many options are there in order to do that?

有多少選擇可以做到這一點？

Mark, well, regarding SEO, we saw some headwinds in the SEO channel that did create some modest pressure, but it's a small channel for us.

馬克，好吧，關於 SEO，我們在 SEO 渠道中看到了一些阻力，這些阻力確實產生了一些適度的壓力，但這對我們來說是一個小渠道。

Your second question, I wasn't quite following.

你的第二個問題，我不太明白。

I don't recall saying something.

我不記得說過什麼。

So could you say that again?

那你能再說一遍嗎？

I think early on you talked about paid leads were coming in a little more slowly than maybe you would want it or they're less ideal.

我想你很早就談到付費線索的到來比你想要的要慢一點，或者他們不太理想。

I think this is something that, for a while, you've been looking for faster channels of high-quality paid leads.

我認為，一段時間以來，您一直在尋找更快的高質量付費潛在客戶渠道。

Can you just talk about your ability to find those?

你能談談你找到這些的能力嗎？

How do you find faster growth paid leads?

您如何找到增長更快的付費線索？

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

I see where you're coming.

我知道你要去哪裡了。

Now I figure out what you're saying.

現在我明白你在說什麼了。

We talked about this for some time that there's been a deceleration of the paid channels.

一段時間以來，我們一直在討論付費頻道增長放緩的問題。

That's been going on for a long time.

這種情況已經持續了很長時間。

That we'd like to find more customers from those channels.

我們希望從這些渠道找到更多客戶。

My point being, more importantly, that no matter what we're doing, we're going to try and maintain our discipline and only do it when we see the right ROIs.

我的觀點是，更重要的是，無論我們在做什麼，我們都將努力保持我們的紀律，並且只在我們看到正確的投資回報率時才去做。

There's obviously lots of things that one always works to improve their paid channel, particularly in terms of trying to increase conversion is the primary thing you can do.

顯然，人們總是可以做很多事情來改善他們的付費渠道，特別是在嘗試提高轉化率方面，這是您可以做的主要事情。

And there are also things and looking out in different ways where we want to shift the money among the different paid channels.

還有一些事情，我們希望以不同的方式在不同的付費渠道之間轉移資金。

These are dynamic markets, as you know.

如您所知，這些是充滿活力的市場。

And what we do will influence what other people do.

我們所做的會影響其他人所做的。

So it's always a bit of a strategy game going on.

所以它總是有點像戰略遊戲。

But you've seen our results so far, and we're pleased with where we are right now with the paid channels.

但是到目前為止，您已經看到了我們的結果，我們對我們目前在付費頻道方面所處的位置感到滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Deepak Mathivanan of Barclays Capital.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊資本的 Deepak Mathivanan。

Great.

偉大的。

So first, what is driving the outperformance in the Europe room night growth versus your expectations?

那麼首先，是什麼推動了歐洲間夜增長超出您的預期？

The macro data points, at least if you look at the industry, third-party sources appear to be sluggish and also the commentary from suppliers, analysts seem to be the same.

宏觀數據點，至少從行業來看，第三方來源似乎不景氣，供應商和分析師的評論似乎也是如此。

Is there a countercyclicality aspect that's benefiting your room night growth or would you just attribute it to better execution during the quarter?

是否存在有利於您的間夜增長的反週期性方面，或者您將其歸因於本季度更好的執行？

And then the second question, sounds like the partnership with Grab is off to a good start and is doing really well.

然後是第二個問題，聽起來與 Grab 的合作開局不錯，而且進展順利。

How are you planning to replicate similar strategies in some of the developed markets?

您打算如何在一些發達市場複製類似的策略？

Are there more partnership-based opportunities that you will look at that?

您會考慮更多基於合作夥伴關係的機會嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So I don't think we're in the area of countercyclicality yet.

所以我認為我們還沒有進入反週期領域。

We mentioned at the beginning that we see the travel industry, in general, around the world, I used the word "generally healthy." So we're not in an area of recession that would then stimulate some type of countercyclicality.

我們一開始提到我們看到旅遊業，總的來說，在世界各地，我用了“總體健康”這個詞。因此，我們不處於會刺激某種類型的反週期性的衰退區域。

So I think your other point of good execution, I'd like to ascribe a lot of that just to good execution and give a shout-out to our 26,000 employees who are executing very, very well.

所以我認為你的另一個良好執行點，我想將其中很多歸功於良好的執行力，並向我們 26,000 名執行得非常非常好的員工大聲疾呼。

In regards to the Grab partnership, I agree.

關於 Grab 合作夥伴關係，我同意。

I'm pleased with what we're doing there.

我對我們在那裡所做的感到滿意。

I like what's happening there.

我喜歡那裡發生的事情。

It's obviously very small still, but it's growing and going the right way.

它顯然仍然很小，但它正在成長並朝著正確的方向發展。

And as you know, at about the same time we made a deal with Didi.

如您所知，大約在同一時間，我們與滴滴達成了交易。

And I mentioned we're going to bring that one out similarly in the sense of being able to provide a seamless, frictionless ground transportation solution for our customers in China and other places where Didi operates over time.

我提到我們將以類似的方式推出這一產品，以便能夠為我們在中國和滴滴經營的其他地方的客戶提供無縫、無摩擦的地面交通解決方案。

And also the other way, the same with Grab is being able to expose our offerings of hotel accommodations, home accommodations, all the other things that we're going to offer to the very, very large customer base that Didi has.

另一方面，與 Grab 相同的是，我們能夠向滴滴擁有的非常非常龐大的客戶群展示我們提供的酒店住宿、家庭住宿以及我們將提供的所有其他服務。

And of course, what we'll want to do is go out and replicate that in other parts of the world with other players.

當然，我們要做的是走出去，與其他玩家一起在世界其他地方復制它。

And that's what our affiliate or strategic partnership teams are going out and doing, and I'm pleased with the progress they're making in that area.

這就是我們的附屬機構或戰略合作夥伴團隊正在做的事情，我對他們在該領域取得的進展感到滿意。

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin Kopelman of Cowen and Company.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman。

So it seems like you've -- last few quarters have been settling into a nice kind of stable growth rate recently on nights and top line.

所以看起來你已經 - 過去幾個季度最近在夜間和收入方面已經進入了一種不錯的穩定增長率。

So with that as the backdrop, can you tell us how you're thinking about investment in non-ad operating expenses as you move forward into 2020?

因此，以此為背景，您能告訴我們在進入 2020 年時您如何考慮對非廣告運營費用的投資嗎？

Now we've talked in the past about the importance to grow our business having a balance between the amount of money that we're going to invest to help grow out in the future, at the same time, maintaining discipline to provide an appropriate bottom line return for our shareholders.

現在我們過去談到了發展我們的業務的重要性，在我們要投資的資金數量之間取得平衡，以幫助未來發展，同時保持紀律以提供適當的底部為我們的股東帶來回報。

We're just going to continue to do that.

我們將繼續這樣做。

That's the way we do it.

我們就是這樣做的。

We've talked many times about some of the things that we want to build.

我們已經多次討論過我們想要構建的一些東西。

We've talked a lot about the connected trip that we see in the long run.

我們已經談了很多關於我們從長遠來看看到的互聯旅行。

That's the winner for us to differentiate or the thing that will make customers come back because they will see a better experience, improve the loyalty, lower the amount of money that we have to spend on the advertising spend.

這是我們差異化的贏家，或者會讓客戶回來的東西，因為他們會看到更好的體驗，提高忠誠度，降低我們必須花在廣告支出上的金額。

These are all things that we are continuing to work on, and we're going to continue to maintain that balance.

這些都是我們正在繼續努力的事情，我們將繼續保持這種平衡。

Okay.

好的。

Glenn, and then just a quick follow-up on Mark's question about SEO.

Glenn，然後快速跟進 Mark 關於 SEO 的問題。

You mentioned it's a small channel for you.

你提到它對你來說是一個小頻道。

Can you help us put a finer point on that?

你能幫我們提出一個更好的觀點嗎？

Is it safe to assume that SEO is a single-digit percentage of your overall revenue?

假設 SEO 佔您總收入的個位數百分比是否安全？

I think I'm going to stick with my qualitative term, small.

我想我會堅持我的定性術語，小。

Your next question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley of Deutsche Bank.

你的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley。

Great.

偉大的。

Two, if I can.

兩個，如果可以的話。

First, Glenn, you all have made a couple of investments in rideshare companies over in Asia.

首先，格倫，你們都對亞洲的拼車公司進行了一些投資。

You've got a good history of leveraging M&A.

您在利用併購方面擁有良好的歷史。

Any interest in making more investments in the rideshare space?

是否有興趣在拼車領域進行更多投資？

There's some public assets on sale.

有一些公共資產出售。

Would it make sense to use some of your capital to do more in the rideshare space?

使用您的部分資金在拼車領域做更多事情是否有意義？

And then secondly, on the payment side, I think you all have said it's kind of shifted from a drag to neutral and then eventually will be a tailwind to EBITDA next year.

其次，在支付方面，我想你們都說過它有點從拖累轉變為中性，然後最終將成為明年 EBITDA 的順風。

Can you kind of talk about how that will flow through the P&L?

你能談談這將如何影響損益表嗎？

Is that just basically higher effective revenue as you start to charge for payments more broadly offsetting the cost?

當您開始更廣泛地收取費用以抵消成本時，這是否只是基本上更高的有效收入？

And then what kind of profit center do you see payments becoming as the merchant business scales over the next few years and you get your rhythm on the payment side?

然後，隨著未來幾年商戶業務規模的擴大，您認為支付將成為什麼樣的利潤中心，您會在支付方面找到自己的節奏？

Well, in regards to the first question, I think we're all familiar that we don't discuss potential M&A transactions publicly, so I'll have to pass on that one.

好吧，關於第一個問題，我想我們都不會公開討論潛在的併購交易，所以我不得不放棄這個問題。

And I'm going to pass over to David in terms of talking about how the funds flows work and why the numbers will be what they'll be.

在談論資金流動如何運作以及為什麼數字會是這樣的方面，我將轉交給大衛。

Yes.

是的。

Lloyd, on the payment side, as you know, there are many moving parts.

勞埃德，正如你所知，在支付方面，有很多活動部件。

There are multiple different aspects of revenue in the payment stream and there are multiple aspects of cost.

支付流中有多個不同方面的收入，也有多個方面的成本。

And essentially, as we've discussed, we've been using this both to help grow the business and as a marketing tool, but also building all the mechanics and to be able to optimize both sides of that equation, revenue and cost, as the payment platform builds.

從本質上講，正如我們所討論的，我們一直在使用它來幫助發展業務和作為一種營銷工具，而且還建立了所有機制並能夠優化該等式的兩邊，即收入和成本，因為支付平台搭建。

So next year, we do expect payments compared to this year to be a contributor to EBITDA growth.

因此，明年，我們確實預計與今年相比的付款將成為 EBITDA 增長的一個貢獻因素。

And it will come from both sides, both the higher revenue recovery and also through better cost efficiency as you roll the platform out, as we generate more scale, as we continue to refine the underlying structure of the product.

它將來自雙方，隨著您推出平台，隨著我們產生更大的規模，隨著我們繼續完善產品的基礎結構，更高的收入恢復和更好的成本效率。

As we said, long term, we certainly view that it can be not only a contributor to EBITDA growth, but also a profit center, but we don't want to quantify that right now.

正如我們所說，從長遠來看，我們當然認為它不僅可以成為 EBITDA 增長的貢獻者，而且還是一個利潤中心，但我們現在不想對其進行量化。

And as we go into next year, we'll probably give you a little bit more color as to how the payments business has progressed as a percentage of our mix, but it's continuing to increase nicely from the approximately 10% of Booking.com we've talked about in 2018.

當我們進入明年時，我們可能會給你更多關於支付業務在我們組合中所佔百分比的進展情況，但它繼續從 Booking.com 的大約 10% 開始很好地增長。 2018年談過。

Your next question comes from the line of Naved Khan of SunTrust.

您的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

Yes.

是的。

Just a couple.

只是一對。

So I think, Glenn, in passing, you had mentioned that maybe the Hong Kong unrest and maybe some travel restrictions in parts of Asia were a drag on the growth.

所以我想，格倫，順便提一下，也許香港的動盪和亞洲部分地區的一些旅行限制拖累了增長。

I would think that having a global business like yours, people basically switch destinations if they want to travel.

我認為，擁有像您這樣的全球業務，人們如果想旅行，基本上會轉換目的地。

So on the whole, are you seeing that?

所以總的來說，你看到了嗎？

Is it still a drag?

還是拖累？

How did that play out?

結果如何？

And then on the connected experience side, I guess you're testing the air bookings in Europe with 1 or 2 partners.

然後在連接體驗方面，我猜你正在與 1 或 2 個合作夥伴一起測試歐洲的機票預訂。

How do these partners kind of differ from KAYAK in terms of how they go to market with you?

這些合作夥伴在與您一起進入市場方面與 KAYAK 有何不同？

So the first one, you're absolutely correct in terms of a global company like ours, we do get some benefit when one particular area becomes a place that people don't want to travel to, there will be a certain portion that will shift to another place, and we will get that business.

所以第一個，就像我們這樣的全球公司而言，你是絕對正確的，當一個特定區域成為人們不想去的地方時，我們確實會得到一些好處，會有一部分會轉移到另一個地方，我們就會得到那筆生意。

That being said, another percentage of that business will unfortunately not travel if they had a specific reason to travel to that region or they just decided that they just didn't want to travel.

話雖這麼說，但不幸的是，如果他們有特定原因前往該地區旅行，或者他們只是決定不想旅行，那麼另一部分企業將不會旅行。

That's what they wanted to do and now they're not going to do it.

那是他們想做的，現在他們不打算做。

So there is a drag even though we are global.

因此，即使我們是全球性的，也存在阻力。

And I'll point out that some of the areas, which we mentioned in the last Q, are still going on.

我要指出的是，我們在上一個問題中提到的一些領域仍在繼續。

The China outbound to the U.S. is still down from where it was a couple of years ago.

中國出境到美國的人數仍低於幾年前的水平。

That is a drag.

那是一個拖累。

We had good business there.

我們在那裡的生意很好。

Certainly, we've all seen on TV what's going on in Hong Kong, and that also is a drag.

當然，我們都在電視上看到了香港的情況，這也是一種拖累。

And there are other places like that.

還有其他類似的地方。

So while we enjoy the benefits of a global business, there's no doubt that we would do better without these types of problems.

因此，儘管我們享受全球業務的好處，但毫無疑問，如果沒有這些類型的問題，我們會做得更好。

In regards to your other question about air in Europe, we have been experimenting in lots of different ways.

關於您關於歐洲空氣的其他問題，我們一直在以多種不同的方式進行試驗。

KAYAK is one of the ways in the past.

KAYAK是過去的一種方式。

We had a click out to a part of a company called Etraveli.

我們點擊了一家名為 Etraveli 的公司的一部分。

Their offering is called Gotogate.

他們的產品稱為 Gotogate。

And we now have a more accomplished, more fulsome relationship with Etraveli in doing a much more true, integrated, seamless-type air product.

我們現在與 Etraveli 建立了更完善、更豐富的關係，共同打造更真實、集成、無縫的航空產品。

The difference between doing a meta with KAYAK and having an actual integrated as a true OTA offering enable us as the connected trip is to use all that data that we get from the actual conversion, all the booking data, all the things the person is doing to be able to offer them some seamless and we like sort of a holistic offering.

使用 KAYAK 進行元數據與將實際集成為真正的 OTA 產品之間的區別使我們能夠使用從實際轉換中獲得的所有數據，所有預訂數據，所有用戶正在做的事情能夠為他們提供一些無縫的服務，我們喜歡一種整體的服務。

So one of the benefits of something like this is you can offer connected trip car rental or other types of ground transportation much more efficiently.

因此，這樣的好處之一是您可以更有效地提供連接旅行汽車租賃或其他類型的地面交通工具。

And I would point out just as a separate, and this is not related to the air product because that is relatively recent.

我要單獨指出，這與空氣產品無關，因為那是相對較新的。

But one of the things I like that we've seen recently is what's going on in our rental cars business.

但我喜歡我們最近看到的一件事是我們的汽車租賃業務正在發生的事情。

And if you look at the statistical summary at the end of our release, you'll see that this recent quarter, we've had a nice uptick in that car rental.

如果您查看我們發布末尾的統計摘要，您會發現最近一個季度，我們的汽車租賃量出現了不錯的增長。

And that is partially due to the connected trip, where we are now offering that car rental much more connected with our Booking.com accommodations customers.

這部分是由於連接旅行，我們現在提供的汽車租賃服務與我們的 Booking.com 住宿客戶更加相關。

So that's another one of those instances where I see the connected trip beginning to come to fruition and see what we really can do.

所以這是我看到連接旅行開始實現並看到我們真正能做些什麼的那些例子中的另一個。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Nowak of Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的布賴恩諾瓦克。

Glenn, I have 2. So the first one, sort of a bigger-picture question.

格倫，我有 2 個問題。所以第一個問題是一個更宏觀的問題。

You sort of talked about how you're witnessing slower growth in paid channels for a little while now.

您談到了一段時間以來您是如何目睹付費渠道增長放緩的。

You guys look at so much data.

你們看這麼多數據。

You have such good visibility into the market.

你對市場有很好的了解。

Why do you think that's happening?

你認為為什麼會這樣？

Is it because you're seeing a deceleration in people coming online?

是因為您發現上網人數減少了嗎？

And why is that happening?

為什麼會這樣？

Are you seeing fewer clicks to bid for?

您是否發現競標點擊次數減少了？

What do you think is driving this?

你認為這是什麼原因造成的？

And what do you think could cause a reacceleration in paid channels over time?

您認為什麼會導致付費渠道隨著時間的推移重新加速？

And then the second one, on the alternative accommodation business, any update or help on sort of how big that business is now and how to think about its contribution to growth from a room night perspective?

然後是第二個，關於替代住宿業務，關於該業務現在有多大以及如何從間夜角度考慮其對增長的貢獻的任何更新或幫助？

So talking about the pay channels, so certainly, as people went online years ago, there's a much larger number of people, I think, who were, particularly in the area that we really have some of our sweet spot, Europe and other developed areas, people jumped online and they went to these pay channels.

所以說到付費渠道，當然，當人們多年前上網時，我認為有更多的人，特別是在我們真正擁有一些甜蜜點的地區，歐洲和其他發達地區，人們跳到網上，他們去了這些付費渠道。

A lot of those people are already there.

很多人已經在那裡了。

Now you start going to other areas of the world where people are going online, but they may not perhaps go to some of our traditional pay channel areas.

現在你開始去世界上人們上網的其他地區，但他們可能不會去我們的一些傳統付費渠道區域。

I'll give you a perfect example.

我會給你一個完美的例子。

We talk a lot about China is a great opportunity for us for the long run.

從長遠來看，我們經常談論中國對我們來說是一個很好的機會。

Google does not operate in China.

谷歌不在中國運營。

So all those new people coming online to buy travel, we've got to find another way to get them.

所以所有那些上網購買旅遊產品的新人，我們必須找到另一種方式來吸引他們。

So that'd be an example.

這就是一個例子。

And there are other places like that.

還有其他類似的地方。

So I think that's probably the primary reason for it.

所以我認為這可能是主要原因。

Whether or not this will reaccelerate, let me know if Google is going to start having a full service in China, in other areas.

無論這是否會重新加速，讓我知道谷歌是否會在中國和其他地區開始提供全面服務。

One of the things that we know, in the end, what's most important is for us to get customers to come to us directly.

我們知道的一件事，最終，最重要的是讓客戶直接來找我們。

We've talked about this a lot in the past.

過去我們已經談過很多次了。

It's one of the things that, I think, is very important.

我認為這是非常重要的事情之一。

For us to have our own future is to create a service that is so wonderful, so good that people just naturally will come back to us directly, and we will not be as dependent on other sources of traffic.

對我們來說，擁有自己的未來就是創造一種如此美妙、如此優秀的服務，以至於人們自然而然地會直接回到我們身邊，而我們將不會那麼依賴於其他流量來源。

What was your second question?

你的第二個問題是什麼？

Alternative accommodations, sort of how to think about -- any help on its sizing from a room night perspective or contribution to growth in the quarter?

替代住宿，如何思考 - 從間夜角度或對本季度增長的貢獻對其規模進行任何幫助？

Well, we continue to talk about how it grows faster than our core hotel business.

好吧，我們繼續談論它如何比我們的核心酒店業務增長得更快。

And we're pleased about that.

我們對此感到高興。

In terms of actual sizing, we gave you some data a couple of quarters ago.

就實際規模而言，我們在幾個季度前為您提供了一些數據。

We're not updating that right now.

我們現在不更新。

And in terms of the overall industry, I mean, there's a lot of data around the world.

就整個行業而言，我的意思是，全世界有很多數據。

And I'll say the swing from the people who give the lowest estimates to the people with the highest estimates is a pretty wide range.

我要說的是，從給出最低估計值的人到給出最高估計值的人之間的差距非常大。

So I wouldn't even attempt to try and come up with which one or where is the exact true number.

所以我什至不會嘗試找出哪個或哪裡是確切的真實數字。

We know it's a big business.

我們知道這是一項大生意。

And we know it's an area that's important for us in the future.

我們知道這是一個對我們未來很重要的領域。

And that's why we continue to devote time, resources and money to it.

這就是我們繼續投入時間、資源和金錢的原因。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Ju of Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的Stephen Ju。

So Glenn, wondering if you can elaborate a little bit about how the operating environment in Southeast Asia may be changing, especially as it regards to Agoda?

那麼格倫，想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下東南亞的運營環境可能會發生怎樣的變化，尤其是在 Agoda 方面？

I mean you've been there for some time now and it seems like around you, online connectivity, adoption of e-commerce and payment frictions are all coming down in the region, which conceivably should serve as tailwinds.

我的意思是，你已經在那裡待了一段時間了，看起來你周圍的在線連接、電子商務的採用和支付摩擦都在該地區下降，可以想像，這應該成為順風。

So are there any structural constraints that you can see that may slow the rate of adoption of online travel in the region?

那麼，您是否看到任何結構性限制可能會降低該地區在線旅遊的採用率？

And secondarily, just wondering how the consumers there behave.

其次，只是想知道那裡的消費者是如何表現的。

Is there a greater propensity to buy packaged products versus hotels and air ticket separately, which may be informing your decision to, I guess, invest in what is more of an intermodal product?

與單獨購買酒店和機票相比，是否更傾向於購買打包產品，這可能會影響您決定投資更多的多式聯運產品？

So I would say that Asia, in general, is one of the opportunities for us for a very, very long time to continue to build out our business and have good growth.

所以我想說，總的來說，亞洲是我們在很長一段時間內繼續發展業務並取得良好增長的機會之一。

And one of the ways one can look at that is Boeing and Airbus both put together some very detailed 10-year projections, I believe, they are, and even further, perhaps.

人們可以通過一種方式來看待這一點，即波音和空中客車公司都匯總了一些非常詳細的 10 年預測，我相信，它們是，甚至可能更遠。

And you just look at the number of planes that they are going to expect to be delivered there.

你只要看看他們期望交付到那裡的飛機數量。

Another way you could do it is look at the number of airports being built in the region, and those things all show that travel is going to continue to be a growth industry in that part of the world, one.

另一種方法是查看該地區正在建設的機場數量，這些都表明旅遊業將繼續成為該地區的增長行業之一。

Two, the different ways that people buy in Asia, and Asia, obviously, is somewhat of a generic term.

第二，人們在亞洲的不同購買方式，顯然，亞洲是一個通用術語。

It's different in different countries.

在不同的國家是不同的。

What happens in Japan is very different than, let's say, what's happening in Vietnam.

日本發生的事情與越南發生的事情大不相同。

But there are some similarities that I would say that we look at.

但是我想說我們看到了一些相似之處。

And one is that price is very, very important.

一是價格非常非常重要。

It is a very competitive world out there in terms of price.

就價格而言，這是一個競爭非常激烈的世界。

Also interesting, and I think we're all familiar with this, is that many people who are just coming online are skipping desktop entirely.

同樣有趣的是，我認為我們都熟悉這一點，許多剛開始上網的人完全跳過桌面。

Everything is lived on the phone.

一切都在電話裡。

And that's very, very important.

這非常非常重要。

The next thing is the super apps that are prevalent there are very important in terms of how you're going to try and get business.

接下來是流行的超級應用程序，它們對您嘗試開展業務的方式非常重要。

If you're not part of one, you're at a disadvantage.

如果你不是其中的一員，你就處於劣勢。

I would also say that it's not just the super apps, but you see people who will go to many different apps to compare price, the price of a product.

我還要說的是，不僅僅是超級應用程序，你會看到人們會去許多不同的應用程序來比較價格，一個產品的價格。

They'll actually download numerous different travel apps and then go through each one.

他們實際上會下載許多不同的旅行應用程序，然後逐一瀏覽。

Not the most effective or efficient way to find out what the lowest price is, but people do, do that.

這不是找出最低價格的最有效或最有效的方法，但人們確實這樣做了。

These things are really important.

這些東西真的很重要。

And I would say that it's something that we're going to continue to do.

我會說這是我們將繼續做的事情。

David, anything else, whatever you want to add, anything?

戴維，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The only thing I'd add is that whilst alternative payment methods is certainly something that's a function that's happening.

我唯一要補充的是，雖然替代支付方式肯定是一種正在發生的功能。

You see it happening around the world.

你看到它發生在世界各地。

You see more of them in Asia.

你在亞洲看到更多。

And the ability to transact in multiple currencies, pay in, pay out in different currencies, particularly pay in from a travel point of view in alternative payment methods, is a factor that is more prevalent in Asia than elsewhere.

以多種貨幣進行交易、以不同貨幣支付、支付的能力，尤其是從旅行的角度來看，以替代支付方式支付的能力，是亞洲比其他地方更為普遍的一個因素。

Absolutely correct.

完全正確。

I mean people in the developed areas of the world use credit cards.

我的意思是世界發達地區的人們使用信用卡。

People in developing world, they're using all different payment products.

發展中國家的人們正在使用各種不同的支付產品。

And it's very important that we be able to use every single one because our customers are used to using those.

我們能夠使用每一個是非常重要的，因為我們的客戶已經習慣了使用它們。

They want to use those.

他們想使用那些。

And if we don't have them, they'll go somewhere else.

如果我們沒有他們，他們就會去別的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Post of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的賈斯汀郵報。

A couple of questions.

幾個問題。

Looks like pretty good ad leverage in the quarter.

看起來本季度的廣告槓桿相當不錯。

Just how do you feel about the advertising situation as you look forward as far as your ability to drive direct traffic and need to spend and maybe ramp up the brand campaign again?

就您推動直接流量的能力以及需要支出和可能再次加強品牌活動而言，您對廣告情況有何看法？

And then second, on ADRs, obviously, a headwind in Q4, are there any events or areas that really show an inflection in ADR growth and something that would tell you, this is very temporary and could rebound?

其次，在 ADR 方面，顯然是第四季度的逆風，是否有任何事件或領域真正顯示出 ADR 增長的拐點，並且會告訴你，這是非常暫時的，可能會反彈？

Just wondering how to think about that for 2020.

只是想知道如何考慮 2020 年的情況。

So I'll talk about the advertising.

所以我會談談廣告。

David will talk about ADRs.

大衛將談論 ADR。

So in terms of brand advertising, and I've talked about this in the last quarter, I would like us to be doing better.

因此，在品牌廣告方面，我在上個季度談到了這一點，我希望我們做得更好。

We are not spending as much at the beginning of the year.

我們今年年初的支出沒有那麼多。

I may have thought we would have.

我可能以為我們會的。

But as I've always said, we're going to be careful with our shareholders' money.

但正如我一直說的那樣，我們將謹慎對待股東的資金。

We're not going to spend blindly.

我們不會盲目消費。

We're going to always test and learn.

我們將始終測試和學習。

And if I don't see the results the way we want them, we're not going to spend until we get it right.

如果我看不到我們想要的結果，我們就不會花錢，直到我們把事情做對為止。

So I'm a little disappointed where we are.

所以我對我們的現狀有點失望。

That being said, it's okay.

話雖這麼說，沒關係。

It's not terrible.

這並不可怕。

It's just not as great as I would like it to be.

它只是沒有我想要的那麼好。

I am very pleased that we have a new CMO at Booking.com.

我很高興我們在 Booking.com 有了一位新的首席營銷官。

He's been there for just a few months.

他在那裡才幾個月。

And I am looking forward to working with him very closely to call out with better creative and better campaigns in a way that we will achieve greater results for our brand marketing.

我期待著與他密切合作，以更好的創意和更好的活動來呼籲我們為品牌營銷取得更大的成果。

And that brand marketing is not only TV brand marketing.

而品牌營銷不僅僅是電視品牌營銷。

It's video.

是視頻。

It's all the different things that one does in terms of producing a good brand campaign.

這是一個人在製作一個好的品牌活動方面所做的所有不同的事情。

I am looking forward to doing this going forward.

我期待著今後這樣做。

Yes.

是的。

Justin, thanks for the question.

賈斯汀，謝謝你的提問。

I'll give you a little bit more color on what's going on with ADRs because there are a number of factors.

我會給你更多關於 ADR 的情況的顏色，因為有很多因素。

I mentioned a couple in my prepared remarks, but let me give you a little bit more flavor.

我在準備好的發言中提到了一些，但讓我給你更多的味道。

So in the third quarter, constant currency, we saw about a 3% decline.

所以在第三季度，固定匯率下，我們看到了大約 3% 的下降。

In the fourth quarter, expecting about 4%.

第四季度，預計約為4%。

When we look at that, about half of that decline is due to lower rates in key countries.

當我們審視這一點時，大約一半的下降是由於主要國家/地區的利率較低。

And the ones I'd call out would be U.S., Japan and Hong Kong being the largest contributor to that piece of it.

我要指出的是美國、日本和香港是這部分的最大貢獻者。

And about half of the decline is due to a mix shift towards lower ADR countries away from higher ADR countries.

大約一半的下降是由於從較高的 ADR 國家轉向較低 ADR 國家的混合轉移。

Now some of that is affected by macroeconomic factors.

現在，其中一些受到宏觀經濟因素的影響。

And those are impacting both rate and mix.

這些都會影響利率和組合。

And I'll describe what they are and I'll give you a flavor as to how we think they're actually playing out relative to just underlying trends.

我將描述它們是什麼，並讓您了解我們認為它們實際上是如何相對於潛在趨勢發揮作用的。

So for example, less China into the U.S. is impacting ADRs in the U.S. with less inbound international travel, so is less and less expensive travel from Europe into the U.S. due to strong dollar.

因此，例如，越來越少的中國人進入美國正在影響美國的 ADR，入境國際旅行減少，因此由於美元走強，從歐洲到美國的旅行越來越便宜。

So factors driving U.S. ADRs on the rate level.

因此，在利率水平上推動美國存託憑證的因素。

Less travel from South Korea into Japan is impacting ADRs in Japan.

從韓國到日本的旅行減少正在影響日本的 ADR。

Of course, travel into Hong Kong generally is just down considerably that impacts both occupancies and ADRs there.

當然，到香港旅遊的人數總體上會大幅下降，這會影響那裡的入住率和 ADR。

But these economic factors are also impacting mix as well.

但這些經濟因素也在影響組合。

They don't only impact rate, they impact mix with less travel into high ADR markets.

它們不僅會影響利率，還會影響組合，減少進入高 ADR 市場的旅行。

I mentioned, U.S. and Hong Kong and more travel to some of the lower ADR market, for example, other markets in Southeast Asia.

我提到過，美國和香港更多的是去一些較低的 ADR 市場，例如東南亞的其他市場。

So you kind of pull all that together and there are many factors that are impacting these global ADRs.

所以你有點把所有這些放在一起，有很多因素正在影響這些全球 ADR。

It's difficult to be exactly precise, but we estimate about half of what we're seeing in the second half of this year is driven by external macro factors, about half of it is due just to underlying changes in our business.

很難準確地說，但我們估計今年下半年我們看到的情況中約有一半是由外部宏觀因素驅動的，其中約一半是由於我們業務的根本變化。

And remember also, we're comparing against 2 quarters where we saw unusual ADR increases last year.

還要記住，我們正在與去年 ADR 異常增長的兩個季度進行比較。

So you kind of pull all that together and you say adjusted for that compare, our constant currency ADRs are down about 2% in Q3, about 3% in Q4, about half of that we can attribute to macro external factors that should normalize over time.

所以你把所有這些放在一起，你說比較調整後，我們的固定貨幣 ADR 在第三季度下降了約 2%，在第四季度下降了約 3%，其中大約一半我們可以歸因於宏觀外部因素，這些因素應該會隨著時間的推移而正常化.

Another question from the line of Douglas Anmuth of JPMorgan.

摩根大通的道格拉斯·安穆斯 (Douglas Anmuth) 提出的另一個問題。

Glenn, I just wanted to ask if anything has changed just in terms of your role as Booking.com CEO as opposed to the CEO of the overall group if anything's changed or just how you're thinking about the business?

Glenn，我只是想問一下，您作為 Booking.com 首席執行官的角色與整個集團的首席執行官相比是否發生了任何變化，或者您對業務的看法是否發生了變化？

And then any early learnings around the flight offerings in some of the newer geographies that you're in?

然後，您對您所處的一些較新地區的航班服務有任何早期了解嗎？

So I'll answer the second one first.

所以我先回答第二個。

The flight thing is so early.

飛機這麼早。

It's literally just a couple of -- there's nothing to be said about that yet, but I hope to be able to talk more about it in the future.

它實際上只是幾個 - 目前還沒有什麼可說的，但我希望將來能夠更多地談論它。

In regards to the new role being both the CEO of Booking Holdings and Booking.com, we talked about that in the last call.

關於同時擔任 Booking Holdings 和 Booking.com 首席執行官的新角色，我們在上次電話會議中談到了這一點。

And one of the things I pointed out was because of my experience in bringing all the companies that are part of this organization in to be part of what was originally just priceline.com and knowing all of the management teams and knowing what's good and what needs some help and where the strengths and weaknesses are in personnel, the management teams in what we do, I felt that I would have a better opportunity to try and bring together the company closer and help us work more efficiently with all of our assets.

我指出的其中一件事是因為我有經驗將所有屬於該組織的公司納入最初只是 priceline.com 的一部分，並且了解所有管理團隊並知道什麼是好的，什麼是需要的一些幫助以及人員的長處和短處，管理團隊在我們所做的事情中，我覺得我會有更好的機會嘗試讓公司更緊密地團結起來，幫助我們更有效地利用我們所有的資產。

And I'm pleased to say that I love the way things are beginning to come out the way it's good for our customers and our suppliers and our shareholders, too.

我很高興地說，我喜歡事情開始以對我們的客戶、我們的供應商和我們的股東都有利的方式出現。

And I pointed out in my prepared remarks that Agoda and Priceline working together created that flight offering for Agoda right now.

我在準備好的評論中指出，Agoda 和 Priceline 正在合作為 Agoda 提供航班服務。

And I mentioned a little bit of the nice thing that we're seeing in our car rental business, where by integrating rental cars into the Booking.com operation, beginning to see some upticks there.

我提到了我們在汽車租賃業務中看到的一些好事，通過將租車整合到 Booking.com 的運營中，開始看到一些增長。

I can go on and on.

我可以繼續下去。

And I mentioned how we're going to have more of this cooperation come out with new services because the connected trip requires us to be able to use all of our assets together.

我提到我們將如何通過新服務開展更多此類合作，因為互聯旅行要求我們能夠一起使用我們所有的資產。

I've always talked about the reason we bought OpenTable was not because we just wanted to have a restaurant reservation system, but because we know every single customer traveling needs to find a place to eat because they're not eating at home.

我一直在談論我們購買 OpenTable 的原因，並不是因為我們只想擁有一個餐廳預訂系統，而是因為我們知道每位旅行的顧客都需要找個地方吃飯，因為他們不在家吃飯。

And by putting these things together, all the data we have from the travel part, all the things we know about what they like in terms of where they like to eat at home from OpenTable and creating merchandise offerings to these customers in a holistic, seamless way is just a much, much better experience than going from site to site to site.

通過將這些東西放在一起，我們從旅行部分獲得的所有數據，我們從 OpenTable 了解的關於他們喜歡在家裡吃什麼的所有信息，並以整體、無縫的方式為這些客戶提供商品方式比從一個站點到另一個站點要好得多。

We have a center in Tel Aviv that has a whole bunch of machine learning experts, AI geniuses who are coming up with different ways to put together the different offerings.

我們在特拉維夫有一個中心，那裡有一大群機器學習專家，人工智能天才，他們想出了不同的方法來組合不同的產品。

And we're going to continue to push that forward.

我們將繼續推動這一進程。

And that will create, and I said it earlier tonight, about the differentiated service that we'll be able to bring people back with more loyalty to enjoy a better experience than has been experienced before.

這將創造，我今晚早些時候說過，關於差異化服務，我們將能夠以更高的忠誠度讓人們回來享受比以前更好的體驗。

That's what I'm so excited about and seeing it to start come to fruition is just thrilling.

這就是我非常興奮的事情，看到它開始取得成果真是令人興奮。

Another question from the line of Eric Sheridan of UBS.

另一個問題來自瑞銀的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe a few follow-ups on some of the topics we've talked about on the call tonight.

也許對我們今晚在電話會議上討論的一些話題進行一些跟進。

In terms of avenues of investment on the marketing side, how are you differentiating between driving desktop traffic versus mobile traffic and within mobile web versus app and where you're seeing the highest ROI as you think about some of those channels across investing versus driving conversion?

就營銷方面的投資途徑而言，您如何區分驅動桌面流量與移動流量、移動網絡與應用程序之間的區別，以及在您考慮投資與驅動轉化的一些渠道時，您在哪裡看到最高的投資回報率？

And then going one layer below the conversion, what are some of the big differentiators you're seeing to drive higher conversion when you do see traffic to your properties?

然後在轉化率下一層，當您確實看到您的資產的流量時，您看到哪些重要的差異化因素可以推動更高的轉化率？

Is it the payments mechanism?

是支付機制嗎？

Is it depth of inventory, especially shared accommodations or is it some of what you talked about on the experiences in the local side that might be areas where you want to invest additional layers to drive more conversion as we look out, not only the end of this year, but out over the next couple of years?

是庫存的深度，尤其是共享住宿，還是您談到的一些本地方面的經驗，這些可能是您希望在我們看來投資額外層次以推動更多轉化的領域，而不僅僅是結束今年，但在接下來的幾年裡？

Well, we're not going to disclose much in terms of where are we putting the marketing money and which ones are giving us the best ROIs.

好吧，我們不會透露太多關於我們把營銷資金放在哪里以及哪些給我們帶來最好的投資回報率。

I think you'll understand our reticence to do that.

我想你會理解我們不願這樣做的。

In terms of conversion, I haven't actually looked at the data, but I'm going to make a bet that the thing that gets the highest conversion is having a great price.

在轉換方面，我還沒有真正查看數據，但我敢打賭，獲得最高轉換的東西有一個很好的價格。

That's probably the #1 thing that you can improve conversion, if you offer a better price.

如果您提供更優惠的價格，這可能是您可以提高轉化率的第一件事。

I'm not sure how much more detail I can really go into here.

我不確定我真的可以在這裡詳細介紹多少。

I'll defer, if there's anything you want to add, David.

如果您想添加任何內容，我會推遲，大衛。

No.

不。

I mean conversion is a multifaceted factor.

我的意思是轉換是一個多方面的因素。

I mean, obviously, people look for choice.

我的意思是，很明顯，人們在尋找選擇。

They look for convenience.

他們尋找方便。

They look for support.

他們尋求支持。

They look for quality reviews.

他們尋找質量評論。

They look for just the quality and the trust of the site and the product.

他們只看重網站和產品的質量和信任度。

And there's a lot of good data science that goes on behind testing all those, and they all have a factor.

測試所有這些的背後有很多好的數據科學，它們都有一個因素。

Good news is that there are many levers that we can pull to improve conversion.

好消息是，我們可以利用許多槓桿來提高轉化率。

And as Glenn said, price and value is a key one as well.

正如格倫所說，價格和價值也是一個關鍵因素。

And then I'll just -- I guess, with what David said.

然後我會——我想，用大衛說的。

One of the things, again, that we do, do and I think it is one of the advantages of being a very large player who can afford lots of data scientists and spend a lot of money in trying to figure out what is the best personalization for a traveler and whether this person has come before or even not, but we know something about a cohort to be able to really offer them something that is what they want to buy.

同樣，我們所做的其中一件事，我認為這是作為一個非常大的參與者的優勢之一，它可以負擔得起大量數據科學家並花費大量資金來試圖找出什麼是最好的個性化對於一個旅行者，無論這個人以前來過還是沒來過，但我們對一個隊列有一些了解，能夠真正為他們提供他們想要購買的東西。

And that's something that's very important because if you just throw off a search result that has no relevance to what they really want, you're not going to get much of a conversion.

這是非常重要的事情，因為如果你只是放棄與他們真正想要的東西無關的搜索結果，你就不會獲得太多的轉化。

But because of the data we have, we have more data probably than most any other travel player around.

但由於我們擁有的數據，我們擁有的數據可能比周圍大多數其他旅遊公司都多。

We use that in a way to make sure that we're offering up to our customer what they want.

我們以某種方式使用它來確保我們向客戶提供他們想要的東西。

And that's how you can help create that higher conversion.

這就是您如何幫助創造更高的轉化率。

They're happier.

他們更快樂。

It was an easy way for them to get what they wanted.

這是他們獲得想要的東西的簡單方法。

That builds the loyalty.

這建立了忠誠度。

They come back.

他們回來了。

We get more data.

我們得到更多數據。

And again, circling back to the connected trip.

再一次，回到連接的旅程。

The more we learn about our customer, the more we're able to then present to them all the things they wanted to know.

我們對客戶了解得越多，就越能向他們展示他們想知道的所有事情。

If it's a leisure trip, what other things do they need.

如果是休閒旅行，他們還需要什麼。

If it's a business trip, what things do they need.

如果是出差，他們需要什麼東西。

And that is just such an advantage over a smaller player and it's an advantage over any individual supplier in the travel ecosystem because they only see a small portion in their data of what the person was.

與較小的參與者相比，這是一個優勢，也是旅游生態系統中任何個體供應商的優勢，因為他們只能在他們的數據中看到這個人的一小部分。

So even the largest hotel chain doesn't know anything about their customer in terms of what sort of ground transportation they want or what sort of restaurant reservations they like to make or what kind of air they generally want to do and what kind of attractions they want.

因此，即使是最大的連鎖酒店也不知道他們的客戶想要什麼樣的地面交通工具，他們喜歡預訂什麼樣的餐廳，或者他們通常想做什麼樣的空中旅行，以及他們喜歡什麼樣的景點想。

That's an advantage that a full OTA like us has.

這是像我們這樣的完整 OTA 所具有的優勢。

Another question from the line of Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs.

高盛的希思特里的另一個問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Glenn, I guess, at some level, this is a little bit more of a philosophical question, but it relates to the answer that you gave on the brand ad spend question.

格倫，我想，在某種程度上，這更像是一個哲學問題，但它與你對品牌廣告支出問題的回答有關。

But you grew revenues 4% this quarter.

但是你本季度的收入增長了 4%。

It wasn't that long ago that the company was growing 25%.

就在不久前，該公司還實現了 25% 的增長。

Given the margins you're generating and what you're spending on buybacks, it's clearly not a question of resources.

考慮到你產生的利潤和你在回購上的支出，這顯然不是資源問題。

Are the incremental returns on investment that bad or are you okay with long-term growth at these levels or is there a path back to 20% growth that you could see the company getting to?

投資的增量回報率是否很糟糕，或者您對這些水平的長期增長是否滿意，或者是否有回到 20% 增長的途徑，您可以看到公司正在實現？

Well, I don't want to go to any specific number, but I do believe that it's important.

好吧，我不想去任何具體數字，但我相信這很重要。

We create services that people want to come back enough that we can accelerate.

我們創造了人們想要回來的服務，我們可以加速。

I'd like to do that.

我想那樣做。

That's part of the reason we're making these investments.

這是我們進行這些投資的部分原因。

And I think in the long run, the thing is creating that great service that gets us loyalty for the people who currently come and keep coming and then creating that brand marketing that you'll know about this better system and come to us and then use it.

我認為從長遠來看，重要的是創造偉大的服務，讓我們對現在來的人忠誠，然後繼續來，然後創造品牌營銷，你會知道這個更好的系統，來找我們，然後使用它。

It's one of those things that in these network economies that when you create something that really is differentiated and better, the uptake can be very, very rapid.

在這些網絡經濟中，當你創造出真正與眾不同且更好的東西時，其中的一件事就會非常非常迅速地被接受。

So hopefully, and I believe we will be able to do this, creating these better services, creating this better experience, being able to provide an opportunity for all of our suppliers, this incredible breadth of suppliers in all different parts of the travel ecosystem, offering them an opportunity to reach out to our customers in this merchandising way with different packages, different types of prices, different types of value and being able to present that to, on the other hand, our demand side, which is so huge, make it so much better that it then creates that flywheel effect and have it start cranking up again.

所以希望，我相信我們將能夠做到這一點，創造這些更好的服務，創造更好的體驗，能夠為我們所有的供應商提供機會，旅游生態系統所有不同部分的供應商數量驚人，為他們提供機會，以這種銷售方式，以不同的包裝、不同類型的價格、不同類型的價值接觸我們的客戶，並能夠將其呈現給另一方面，我們如此巨大的需求方，使它好多了，然後它會產生飛輪效應並讓它再次開始啟動。

That's what I'd like to see.

這就是我想看到的。

Okay.

好的。

I mean anything you can add just sort of on what you are seeing in terms of the incremental returns and the areas of investment, I mean, particularly on brand advertising?

我的意思是你可以添加任何你在增量回報和投資領域方面看到的東西，我的意思是，特別是在品牌廣告方面？

As a percentage of sales, this is the lowest you've spent in, I think, nearly 3 years.

作為銷售額的百分比，這是您近 3 年來花費的最低值。

Given how important you've called out driving direct traffic is, I guess I'm just surprised that you haven't tried to push that a little bit further.

鑑於您所說的推動直接交通的重要性，我想我只是對您沒有嘗試進一步推動這一點感到驚訝。

Well, I guess, and you asked for philosophically, and I'll go back to that then.

好吧，我想，你從哲學上要求，然後我會回到那個。

That philosophically, I'm against wasting money.

從哲學上講，我反對浪費金錢。

And I want to make sure that we're getting the return for the money we spend.

我想確保我們花的錢能得到回報。

And again, our brand campaigns are fine.

再一次，我們的品牌活動很好。

They're just not as good as I'd like them to be.

他們只是沒有我希望的那麼好。

So when I say I'm disappointed, I'm not saying they're terrible.

所以當我說我很失望時，我並不是說他們很糟糕。

I'm just saying they're not as good as they could be.

我只是說他們沒有達到應有的水平。

Some of the brand health metrics that we've seen have been good, some have not been as good.

我們看到的一些品牌健康指標一直很好，有些則沒有那麼好。

I am very excited, though, about our new CMO.

不過，我對我們的新 CMO 感到非常興奮。

He had nothing to do with the old campaigns.

他與舊的競選活動無關。

These are new things that we're working on now.

這些是我們現在正在研究的新事物。

And I'm looking forward to seeing some good results in the future with him.

我期待著在未來與他一起看到一些好的結果。

Next question comes from the line of Brian Fitzgerald of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Brian Fitzgerald。

You talked to these questions, but maybe I just want to parse that a little differently.

你談到了這些問題，但也許我只是想稍微不同地解析一下。

David, you highlighted direct traffic is growing faster than paid.

大衛，你強調了直接流量的增長速度快於付費流量。

And Glenn, you talked to the importance of a number of times on the call the importance and the continued focus on direct traffic.

格倫，你在電話中多次談到了重要性和對直接流量的持續關注。

How would you assess the magnitude and/or the quality of your direct traffic and the initiatives that you're exercising there?

您將如何評估直接流量的規模和/或質量以及您在那裡實施的舉措？

How much runway or leverage do you feel you have to execute against getting more direct traffic into you?

你覺得你必須執行多少跑道或槓桿才能讓更多直接流量進入你？

Brian, in terms of just quantification, I mean, just to recap, I think everybody knows this, but we've been clear that for a while direct traffic has been over 50% of our bookings and continues to increase from that data point.

布賴恩，就量化而言，我的意思是，只是回顧一下，我想每個人都知道這一點，但我們很清楚，有一段時間直接流量已經超過我們預訂的 50%，並且從該數據點繼續增加。

So that's where it is from a sizing point of view and continues to move nicely each quarter.

因此，從規模調整的角度來看，這就是它所在的位置，並且每個季度都繼續保持良好的走勢。

I don't think we kind of put a cap on where we think that can go.

我不認為我們對我們認為可以去的地方設置上限。

There will always be a mix.

總會有混合。

We think that, as we said, the performance channels, albeit growing more slowly are a very efficient way for us to capture new customers.

我們認為，正如我們所說，績效渠道雖然增長速度較慢，但卻是我們吸引新客戶的一種非常有效的方式。

And we like what we see there.

我們喜歡我們在那裡看到的東西。

And when we see growth opportunities, we lean into them.

當我們看到增長機會時，我們就會抓住機會。

And we think it's a combination of both.

我們認為這是兩者的結合。

And then, of course, as Glenn said, the more we build the better flywheel, the better the conversion will be from those performance-led customers into direct customers and repeat customers.

然後，當然，正如格倫所說，我們製造的飛輪越多越好，從那些以績效為主導的客戶到直接客戶和回頭客的轉化就越好。

So that's the way the business kind of operates, but there's not really a lot of new data to give you other than reiterate the points that we've already made.

所以這就是業務運作的方式，但除了重申我們已經提出的觀點之外，並沒有太多新數據可以給你。

Next question comes from the line of Jed Kelly of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的傑德凱利。

Great.

偉大的。

Just on one.

就一個。

In the U.S., I mean, how do you view the opportunity of sort of getting more for by-owner or that inventory that has a little more friction and bringing that over to your site and would that help your brand campaign in the U.S.?

在美國，我的意思是，你如何看待為所有者或那些有更多摩擦的庫存帶來更多機會並將其帶到你的網站，這會有助於你在美國的品牌活動嗎？

And then any commentary on Ctrip investing in TripAdvisor?

那麼對於攜程投資TripAdvisor有何評論？

So we talked in the past about how we think we are under-indexed in terms of the single property owner in the U.S. And we know that's an area where we need to add inventory to have a fully competitive source inventory against people who want that type of a place to stay.

因此，我們過去曾談到我們如何認為我們在美國的單一財產所有者方面的指數不足我們知道這是一個我們需要增加庫存的領域，以便擁有與想要這種類型的人完全競爭的來源庫存一個住宿的地方。

And we're keen to work on that.

我們渴望為此努力。

Obviously, we have a lot of different ways that we try and bring people on to the site, to make it less burdensome to have people come on.

顯然，我們有很多不同的方法來嘗試將人們帶到網站上，以減輕人們來這裡的負擔。

That's something we're going to continue to do.

這是我們將繼續做的事情。

It's blocking and tackling and we're slowly building it out.

它正在攔截和攔截，我們正在慢慢構建它。

So that's the best I can say there.

所以這是我能說的最好的。

It continues to grow as we continue to add that type of inventory into the website and the inventory.

隨著我們繼續將這種類型的庫存添加到網站和庫存中，它會繼續增長。

In regards to the Ctrip deal that we saw announced, look, we continue to create partnerships ourselves.

關於我們看到宣布的攜程交易，看，我們繼續自己建立合作夥伴關係。

And we have a good partnership with Ctrip.

而且我們和攜程有很好的合作關係。

And they sell our hotels.

他們出售我們的酒店。

And we make money.

我們賺錢。

And we're happy about that.

我們對此感到高興。

We also, though, set an agreement with Meituan, which is Ctrip's big competitor.

不過，我們也與攜程的最大競爭對手美團達成了協議。

And we have good business and we have a good relationship with them, too.

我們有很好的業務，我們也與他們有良好的關係。

And we have a relationship with Didi, which is another Chinese player.

而且我們和滴滴有關係，滴滴是另外一個中國玩家。

And we have, as you know, we invested in Grab, as I talked about earlier.

正如你所知，我們已經投資了 Grab，正如我之前談到的那樣。

And we put an investment into another APAC player, Serko, down in New Zealand.

我們還投資了新西蘭的另一家亞太地區公司 Serko。

So we continue to make those kind of investments and partnerships.

因此，我們繼續進行此類投資和合作。

It is not surprising that our competitors or other people in the space would also be thinking about doing those type of deals, et cetera.

毫不奇怪，我們的競爭對手或該領域的其他人也會考慮進行此類交易等。

And I don't begrudge anybody who wants to improve their own position.

我不會嫉妒任何想提高自己地位的人。

That is the obligation of any corporation to try and improve their business for their shareholders.

這是任何公司為股東努力改善業務的義務。

And I suppose that's what they've done, but I have no details exactly about what the deal is so I really can't comment on the specifics.

我想這就是他們所做的，但我沒有關於這筆交易的確切細節，所以我真的不能對細節發表評論。

Your last question comes from the line of James Lee of Mizuho Securities.

你的最後一個問題來自瑞穗證券的James Lee。

A question, Glenn, is there any way you can give us an update on your current transition to the merchant business model here?

一個問題，格倫，你有什麼辦法可以向我們提供你目前向商人商業模式過渡的最新情況嗎？

And what is the coverage now relative to total market at this point?

目前相對於整個市場的覆蓋範圍是多少？

And maybe help us understand which region you are seeing success?

也許可以幫助我們了解您在哪個地區取得成功？

And do you also expect U.S. hotel partners to adopt this model soon?

您是否也期待美國的酒店合作夥伴盡快採用這種模式？

And just curious given the slowdown in the market, is this business model giving you the price control to help you to be more resilient during the current environment?

好奇的是，鑑於市場放緩，這種商業模式是否為您提供了價格控制權，以幫助您在當前環境中更具彈性？

Well, let me talk about the resilience in the travel business in general.

好吧，讓我談談一般旅遊業務的彈性。

In the past, when there have been slowdowns, the distributors have achieved greater success because of the need for the suppliers to get more customers.

過去，當出現放緩時，由於供應商需要獲得更多客戶，分銷商會取得更大的成功。

So that is something that we believe will happen again when and if there is a true slowdown.

因此，我們相信，當經濟真正放緩時，這種情況會再次發生。

As I pointed out, the industry is still, I believe, generally healthy around the world with pockets that we've described earlier.

正如我所指出的，我相信該行業在世界範圍內總體上仍然健康，擁有我們之前描述的口袋。

I do believe that in the long run, the growth in the industry will continue to exceed GDP by a few points.

我確實相信，從長遠來看，該行業的增長將繼續超過 GDP 幾個百分點。

And that is the way we always play it out.

這就是我們一貫的表現方式。

So there's going to be always some ups and downs in the long run.

所以從長遠來看，總會有一些起伏。

But yes, we may gain a little more when there's a recession.

但是，是的，當出現經濟衰退時，我們可能會獲得更多收益。

And when occupancy rates are very, very high, there obviously is less need for a distributor like us.

當入住率非常非常高時，顯然不需要像我們這樣的分銷商。

But in the long run, we'll continue to provide greater services and greater benefits to both sides of this two-sided marketplace that will allow us to achieve the success that we think we should.

但從長遠來看，我們將繼續為這個雙向市場的雙方提供更好的服務和更大的利益，這將使我們能夠取得我們認為應該取得的成功。

And David, anything about the merchant stuff?

大衛，關於商人的事嗎？

James, on merchants, and obviously just to clarify that the shift we're talking is the kind of rollout of the merchant platform of Booking.com at Agoda and Priceline.

James，關於商家，顯然只是為了澄清我們正在談論的轉變是在 Agoda 和 Priceline 推出 Booking.com 商家平台的那種轉變。

We do a lot of business on the merchant model already today.

今天，我們已經在商家模型上開展了大量業務。

Booking.com, we continue to make progress.

Booking.com，我們不斷進步。

We gave you a data point a couple of quarters ago as to how many countries we're live, and we continue to add to that.

幾個季度前，我們向您提供了一個關於我們生活在多少個國家/地區的數據點，並且我們會繼續增加。

We continue to add merchant capabilities in the U.S. and make those available to a wider range of our property partners here as well, so continuing to grow.

我們繼續在美國增加商戶能力，並將這些能力也提供給我們在這裡的更廣泛的房地產合作夥伴，從而繼續發展。

As I mentioned earlier, mix increasing from 2018, but we're not going to give you a new data point on that just yet.

正如我之前提到的，混合從 2018 年開始增加，但我們現在還不會給你一個新的數據點。

At some point in time, we'll give you an update.

在某個時間點，我們會給你更新。

We're pleased with how that is progressing, and we're pleased with how it's giving us some additional flexibility in the business.

我們對進展情況感到滿意，我們對它如何為我們的業務提供更多靈活性感到高興。

And of course, it's very important to underpin a lot of what Glenn talked about with the connected trip because if you want to really have a connected trip, you want to also be able to connect and aggregate the way that you pay for that and also be able to do things around packaging, pricing, payments, et cetera.

當然，支持 Glenn 談到的很多關於互聯旅行的內容非常重要，因為如果你真的想要一次互聯旅行，你也希望能夠連接和匯總你為此支付的方式，並且能夠圍繞包裝、定價、付款等進行操作。

The merchant platform provides a mechanism for that as well.

商家平台也為此提供了一種機制。

So we're pleased with it.

所以我們對此很滿意。

It's making progress today, and it will be a bigger driver for us in the future.

它今天正在取得進展，它將成為我們未來更大的推動力。

Right.

正確的。

If I may ask a follow-up question.

如果我可以問一個後續問題。

Glenn, maybe give us an update on your view on China.

格倫，也許可以向我們介紹一下您對中國的最新看法。

I know you've been bullish for a long time.

我知道你看漲了很長時間。

Now given the fact that looks like global payments is happening in China that allow you to work with Didi as a way to provide additional service to Chinese consumers domestically, maybe help us understand what other steps are you taking to improve your service?

現在，鑑於全球支付似乎正在中國發生，這讓您可以與滴滴合作，以此為國內的中國消費者提供額外服務，也許可以幫助我們了解您還採取了哪些其他措施來改善您的服務？

Is it more the customer segment type of strategy where you feel you have an edge in certain segment of consumer within China or is this more of the blanket strategy to go after big TAM in China specifically?

是您認為自己在中國特定消費者群體中具有優勢的客戶細分類型戰略，還是專門針對中國大 TAM 的全面戰略？

And we've said this many times how important China is in the long run.

從長遠來看，我們已經多次說過中國的重要性。

And yes, there's some economic headwinds in China right now that have impacted travel in general there.

是的，中國目前存在一些經濟逆風，影響了那裡的整體旅行。

And certainly, we've talked a little bit earlier about some of the outbound impacts.

當然，我們之前已經談過一些出境影響。

We have a multi-leg approach.

我們有一個多邊方法。

We do everything from building out our own brands there, to partnerships with OTAs like Ctrip or Trip.com, as it's now known, or Meituan or ground transportation like Didi or many other B2B players where there's places where we can get customers.

我們做任何事情，從在那裡建立我們自己的品牌，到與 OTA 合作，比如現在眾所周知的攜程或 Trip.com，或者美團或像滴滴這樣的地面交通，或者我們可以在這些地方獲得客戶的許多其他 B2B 玩家。

We have almost 1,000 employees in China.

我們在中國有近 1,000 名員工。

We are doing all different types of brand marketing and other ways to try and get people to see our services and get people to come to us directly or as I just said, we also get customers through the B2B method, too.

我們正在做各種不同類型的品牌營銷和其他方式，試圖讓人們看到我們的服務，讓人們直接來找我們，或者正如我剛才所說，我們也通過 B2B 方法獲得客戶。

I will emphasize, though, China is a very competitive marketplace.

不過，我要強調的是，中國是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。

And we have to always be trying to create the best services with good prices to be successful there.

我們必須始終努力以合理的價格創造最好的服務才能在那裡取得成功。

But we're going to continue to develop and work there because we do know that for the long run, we need to create something that the customers in China will want to use.

但我們將繼續在那裡開發和工作，因為我們知道從長遠來看，我們需要創造一些中國客戶想要使用的東西。

And I'm pleased with where we sit right now, and I hope we continue to grow in the future.

我對我們現在所處的位置感到滿意，我希望我們在未來繼續發展。

So thank you, everybody, very much.

所以，非常感謝大家。

I'd like to say that we're pleased with the quarter.

我想說我們對這個季度感到滿意。

We're excited about the future, and we look forward to talking to you again in the new year.

我們對未來感到興奮，我們期待在新的一年再次與您交談。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。