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Operator
Operator
Welcome to Booking Holdings' Fourth Quarter 2019 Conference Call.
歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 2019 年第四季度電話會議。
Booking Holdings would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Booking Holdings 提醒大家,本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款作出的。
These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.
這些前瞻性陳述不是對未來業績的保證,並受某些難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。
Therefore, actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements.
因此,實際結果可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中明示、暗示或預測的結果存在重大差異。
Expressions of future goals or expectations and similar expressions reflecting something other than historical fact are intended to identify forward-looking statements.
未來目標或期望的表達以及反映歷史事實以外的事物的類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。
For a list of factors that could cause Booking Holdings' actual results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, please refer to the safe harbor statement at the end of Booking Holdings' earnings press release as well as Booking Holdings' most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
有關可能導致 Booking Holdings 的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異的因素列表,請參閱 Booking Holdings 收益新聞稿末尾的安全港聲明以及 Booking Holdings 最近的向證券交易委員會備案。
Unless required by law, Booking Holdings undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
除非法律要求,否則 Booking Holdings 沒有義務公開更新任何前瞻性陳述,無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。
A copy of Booking Holdings' earnings press release, together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement, is available in the For Investors section of Booking Holdings' website, www.bookingholdings.com.
Booking Holdings 的收益新聞稿副本以及隨附的財務和統計補充資料可在 Booking Holdings 網站 www.bookingholdings.com 的投資者部分獲取。
And now I'd like to introduce Booking Holdings' speakers for this afternoon, Glenn Fogel and David Goulden.
現在我想介紹一下 Booking Holdings 今天下午的發言人 Glenn Fogel 和 David Goulden。
Go ahead, gentlemen.
來吧,先生們。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Thank you and welcome to Booking Holdings' fourth quarter conference call.
謝謝,歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 的第四季度電話會議。
I'm joined this afternoon by our CFO, David Goulden.
今天下午,我們的首席財務官戴維·古爾登 (David Goulden) 加入了我的行列。
We had a strong fourth quarter as we booked 191 million room nights, which is up 12% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our guidance range.
我們在第四季度表現強勁,預訂了 1.91 億間夜,同比增長 12%,超出了我們指導範圍的上限。
We produced over $3.3 billion in revenue and approximately $1.3 billion in EBITDA, which are year-over-year increases of approximately 5% and 3% on a constant currency basis, respectively.
我們創造了超過 33 億美元的收入和約 13 億美元的 EBITDA,按固定匯率計算,分別同比增長約 5% 和 3%。
I will talk first about our full year performance in 2019 then about our objectives for 2020 and then I will address the current situation regarding the coronavirus.
我將首先談談我們在 2019 年的全年表現,然後談談我們 2020 年的目標,然後我將談談有關冠狀病毒的現狀。
2019 was a good year for our company.
2019年對我們公司來說是個好年頭。
We booked 845 million room nights for the year, which is 11% more than in 2018.
我們全年預訂間夜量為 8.45 億,比 2018 年增長 11%。
Just to put that in context, that means we booked, on average, more than 2.3 million room nights each day.
只是為了說明這一點,這意味著我們平均每天預訂超過 230 萬間夜。
We produced strong year-over-year growth across our key financial metrics.
我們的主要財務指標實現了強勁的同比增長。
Non-GAAP revenue and adjusted EBITDA were up 8% and 6% on a constant currency basis, respectively.
按固定匯率計算,非美國通用會計準則收入和調整後的 EBITDA 分別增長 8% 和 6%。
Our non-GAAP EPS was up 15% on a constant currency basis, exceeding our guidance for the year.
我們的非 GAAP 每股收益在固定匯率基礎上增長了 15%,超過了我們今年的指導。
Our EPS growth rate benefited from over $8 billion of share repurchases during 2019, which demonstrates our disciplined approach to returning capital to shareholders and our confidence in our business.
我們的 EPS 增長率得益於 2019 年超過 80 億美元的股票回購,這表明我們向股東返還資本的嚴謹方法以及我們對我們業務的信心。
I am pleased with these results considering the macro environment we faced in certain geographies throughout the year.
考慮到我們全年在某些地區面臨的宏觀環境,我對這些結果感到滿意。
Moreover, we accomplished this top line growth rate while also producing solid leverage in our performance marketing spend.
此外,我們實現了這一最高增長率,同時也在我們的績效營銷支出中產生了堅實的影響力。
Our ability to execute consistently in this environment speaks to our scale and global diversity as well as to the dedicated and talented teams we have at our company.
我們在這種環境中始終如一地執行的能力說明了我們的規模和全球多樣性以及我們公司擁有的敬業和才華橫溢的團隊。
We made solid progress against our key strategic goals for the year: expanding the Booking.com payment platform, improving our alternative accommodations business and further building our connected trip strategy.
我們在今年的主要戰略目標方面取得了堅實的進展:擴展 Booking.com 支付平台,改善我們的替代住宿業務,並進一步建立我們的互聯旅行戰略。
As we move into 2020, we will continue to focus on becoming an even more customer-centric company that drives loyalty and increased repeat behavior.
隨著我們進入 2020 年,我們將繼續專注於成為一家更加以客戶為中心的公司,以提高忠誠度並增加重複行為。
We plan to accomplish this goal through smart customer acquisition while providing the best experience in our core accommodations product using our scale to offer the best value to our customers and making further progress in our connected trip strategy.
我們計劃通過明智的客戶獲取來實現這一目標,同時利用我們的規模為我們的客戶提供最佳價值並在我們的互聯旅行戰略中取得進一步進展,從而在我們的核心住宿產品中提供最佳體驗。
In addition, while we have always been a cost-conscious organization, in 2020, we will further emphasize the need to make sure our expenses are appropriate for our revenue, and we'll look at ways to streamline and make all aspects of our company more efficient.
此外,雖然我們一直是一個注重成本的組織,但在 2020 年,我們將進一步強調確保我們的支出與我們的收入相適應的必要性,我們將研究如何精簡併使我們公司的各個方面更高效。
Investing in products and process is important for the long term, but so too is eliminating unnecessary expense.
從長遠來看,投資於產品和流程很重要,但消除不必要的開支也很重要。
And during 2020, we'll be taking a close look at these opportunities.
2020 年,我們將密切關注這些機會。
One of our highlights during 2019 was expanding our payment capabilities at Booking.com.
2019 年我們的一大亮點是擴展了 Booking.com 的支付能力。
Over 50% of our Booking.com's gross bookings now occur on properties that are enabled on its payment platform.
我們 Booking.com 超過 50% 的總預訂量現在發生在其支付平台上啟用的物業上。
The percentage of Booking.com's gross bookings processed on its payment platform grew from approximately 10% in 2018 to over 15% in 2019, and we expect this to reach approximately 25% in 2020.
Booking.com 在其支付平台上處理的總預訂量的百分比從 2018 年的約 10% 增長到 2019 年的 15% 以上,我們預計這一比例將在 2020 年達到約 25%。
As we have discussed, this platform provides payment options favored by both our customers and property partners, particularly non-hotel property partners and provide a platform for merchant product offerings.
正如我們所討論的那樣,該平台提供了我們的客戶和物業合作夥伴(尤其是非酒店物業合作夥伴)都喜歡的支付選項,並為商家產品提供了一個平台。
Merchant offerings also provide Booking.com with merchandising capabilities, and we expect to continue to increase our investment in this capability to drive growth.
商戶產品還為 Booking.com 提供商品銷售能力,我們希望繼續增加對這一能力的投資以推動增長。
This payment platform is foundational for our connected trip strategy in which we envision a frictionless customer experience across multiple products that we believe will drive increased loyalty.
這個支付平台是我們互聯旅行戰略的基礎,我們設想跨多種產品的無摩擦客戶體驗,我們相信這將提高忠誠度。
Our alternative accommodations business grew solidly in 2019 and has large scale.
我們的另類住宿業務在 2019 年穩步增長,規模龐大。
As of December 31, 2019, we had 6.3 million listings in our alternative accommodations business.
截至 2019 年 12 月 31 日,我們的替代住宿業務有 630 萬個房源。
We remain focused on increasing the quality and variety of properties joining our platform so we can provide the best choices for our customers and drive search conversion.
我們仍然專注於提高加入我們平台的物業的質量和種類,以便我們可以為客戶提供最佳選擇並推動搜索轉化。
Booking.com's alternative accommodation business recorded approximately $3.1 billion in revenue in 2019, representing approximately 21% of our overall revenue for the year and a solid growth rate of 14% when expressed in euros.
Booking.com 的另類住宿業務在 2019 年錄得約 31 億美元的收入,約占我們全年總收入的 21%,以歐元計算,增長率為 14%。
It consistently grew faster than our core accommodations business throughout the year and also maintained a healthy profit margin.
它全年的增長速度一直快於我們的核心住宿業務,並且還保持了健康的利潤率。
We believe presenting both alternative accommodations and traditional properties on one platform is the best customer proposition.
我們認為,在一個平台上同時展示替代住宿和傳統物業是最好的客戶建議。
Last year, we took further steps to create our vision of the connected trip.
去年,我們採取了進一步的措施來創建互聯旅行的願景。
We're on a journey to build a multiproduct offering, including accommodations, flight, attractions, ground transport and dining, all connected by a seamless payment network and supported by personalized intelligence to provide a frictionless customer experience that we believe will drive enhanced loyalty and support growth.
我們正在構建多產品服務的旅程,包括住宿、航班、景點、地面交通和餐飲,所有這些都通過無縫支付網絡連接並由個性化智能支持,以提供無摩擦的客戶體驗,我們相信這將提高忠誠度和支持增長。
We saw early signs of these benefits last year as we leverage the integration of Rentalcars.com and Booking.com to deliver a better ground transport offering for Booking.com's customers.
去年,當我們利用 Rentalcars.com 和 Booking.com 的整合為 Booking.com 的客戶提供更好的地面交通服務時,我們看到了這些好處的早期跡象。
Rental car days grew 12% year-over-year in the fourth quarter primarily due to the increased cross-sell of the product to Booking.com customers.
第四季度租車天數同比增長 12%,主要原因是向 Booking.com 客戶的產品交叉銷售增加。
We believe we are in the early stages of seeing the benefit from this cross-sell opportunity.
我們相信我們正處於從這種交叉銷售機會中獲益的早期階段。
We've also been encouraged by certain incentive programs that provide discounted ground transport options to bookers with higher value accommodations.
我們還受到某些激勵計劃的鼓舞,這些計劃為住宿價值更高的預訂者提供打折的地面交通選擇。
These programs have shown an increase in conversion at acceptable ROIs.
這些程序已顯示出以可接受的投資回報率提高了轉化率。
We look forward to further experimentation with these types of offerings during 2020.
我們期待在 2020 年進一步試驗這些類型的產品。
We also expanded our flight capabilities across the company in 2019.
2019 年,我們還擴大了全公司的飛行能力。
Booking.com launched an integrated flight product while Agoda and Priceline began building a global flight platform that is initially focused on the APAC region.
Booking.com 推出整合機票產品,Agoda 和Priceline 開始打造全球機票平台,最初專注於亞太地區。
Currently, Booking.com offers a flight product in 12 countries in Europe, but we plan to expand this throughout 2020.
目前,Booking.com 在歐洲 12 個國家/地區提供航班產品,但我們計劃在整個 2020 年擴大這一範圍。
Booking.com's goal for the year is to be able to expose 50% of its total customers to a flight product globally.
Booking.com 今年的目標是能夠讓全球 50% 的客戶接觸到航班產品。
Developing a robust flight product remains an important investment considering there are more than 4 billion global flight passengers last year.
考慮到去年全球飛行乘客超過 40 億,開發強大的飛行產品仍然是一項重要的投資。
Having the ability to engage with these customers early in their travel journey gives us a better opportunity to cross-sell our accommodation and other products.
能夠在旅行旅程的早期與這些客戶互動,讓我們有更好的機會交叉銷售我們的住宿和其他產品。
But even more important, it enables us to offer a true connected trip experience.
但更重要的是,它使我們能夠提供真正的互聯旅行體驗。
This year, we will continue to expand other aspects of the connected trip, such as attractions and dining options.
今年,我們將繼續擴大連接旅行的其他方面,例如景點和餐飲選擇。
For these offerings, we will utilize not only our own assets but also partner with third-party providers so we can offer the best customer experience possible.
對於這些產品,我們不僅會利用我們自己的資產,還會與第三方提供商合作,以便我們能夠提供最佳的客戶體驗。
We continue to see loyalty benefits from accommodation customers who also use our attractions product.
我們繼續看到也使用我們的景點產品的住宿客戶的忠誠度收益。
We will continue to invest in our app platform as it becomes the center of our connected trip experience.
我們將繼續投資我們的應用程序平台,因為它已成為我們聯網旅行體驗的中心。
Booking.com remains one of the most downloaded travel apps in the iOS and Android stores globally.
Booking.com 仍然是全球 iOS 和 Android 商店中下載次數最多的旅遊應用程序之一。
According to a leading third-party research firm, Booking.com was the only OTA to rank in their top 10 travel apps in the world ex China in 2019, coming in at #3.
根據一家領先的第三方研究公司的數據,Booking.com 是 2019 年唯一一家躋身除中國以外全球前 10 名旅遊應用程序的 OTA,排名第三。
We've been investing in the app platform for some time and it is becoming the preferred platform for travel bookings, and we are very pleased with the strong room night growth that occurs on Booking.com's app.
一段時間以來,我們一直在投資該應用程序平台,它正在成為旅行預訂的首選平台,我們對 Booking.com 應用程序出現的強勁間夜增長感到非常高興。
As I mentioned earlier, all of these investments are designed to drive greater loyalty and increased repeat behavior with our customers.
正如我之前提到的,所有這些投資都是為了提高客戶的忠誠度和重複行為。
We made progress on this front last year.
去年我們在這方面取得了進展。
In each quarter of 2019, our direct channel grew faster than our primary paid channels and our direct channel increased its share for the year.
在 2019 年的每個季度,我們的直接渠道增長速度都快於我們的主要付費渠道,並且我們的直接渠道增加了全年的份額。
The direct channel represents over 50% of our total booked room nights.
直接渠道占我們總預訂間夜數的 50% 以上。
And when including rooms booked through branded search terms, this number increases to over 60%.
當包括通過品牌搜索詞預訂的房間時,這個數字增加到 60% 以上。
We have a large and loyal customer base today, but we believe we can grow this further and increase market share.
我們今天擁有龐大而忠誠的客戶群,但我們相信我們可以進一步發展並增加市場份額。
Booking.com's best and most loyal customers are part of its Genius program.
Booking.com 最好和最忠誠的客戶都是其 Genius 計劃的一部分。
This group of customers has grown consistently for several years.
這群客戶多年來一直在不斷增長。
In 2019, we had over 70 million active Genius customers, an increase of 9% year-over-year.
2019 年,我們擁有超過 7000 萬活躍的 Genius 客戶,同比增長 9%。
These Genius customers were responsible for a growing proportion of Booking.com's booked room nights in 2019, and we thank them for their loyalty.
2019 年,這些 Genius 客戶在 Booking.com 的預訂間夜量中所佔比例越來越大,我們感謝他們的忠誠度。
On top of that, we see that Genius customers book more frequently and more often on a direct basis when compared to non-Genius customers.
最重要的是,我們發現與非 Genius 客戶相比,Genius 客戶更頻繁地直接預訂。
We will continue to focus our efforts on growing this special group of customers and offering them great value as part of their Genius membership.
我們將繼續專注於發展這一特殊客戶群,並為他們提供巨大的價值,作為他們 Genius 會員的一部分。
While we are pleased about our long-term prospects, we recognize that current travel demand has been impacted by the coronavirus.
雖然我們對我們的長期前景感到滿意,但我們認識到當前的旅行需求已受到冠狀病毒的影響。
At the present time, Greater China has been affected the most.
目前,大中華區受到的影響最大。
The broader APAC region has also been impacted, which is an area in which we have been experiencing strong growth over the last several years.
更廣泛的亞太地區也受到了影響,這是我們在過去幾年中經歷強勁增長的領域。
And we are now starting to see a slowdown in travel globally and are aware of the potential for further demand deceleration around the world.
我們現在開始看到全球旅行放緩,並意識到全球需求進一步放緩的可能性。
David will provide more details in his remarks.
大衛將在他的發言中提供更多細節。
But I would like to point out, this is not the first time our company management team has faced an exogenous impact to travel demand.
但我想指出,這不是我們公司管理團隊第一次面臨旅遊需求的外生影響。
We know that travel is fundamental to people's lives, and we believe travel industry growth will rebound to prior growth rates.
我們知道旅遊對人們的生活至關重要,我們相信旅遊行業的增長將反彈至之前的增長率。
While the coronavirus impacts travel, we will continue to manage the company in a measured way that builds value for the long term.
雖然冠狀病毒影響了旅行,但我們將繼續以有節制的方式管理公司,以創造長期價值。
However, the steps we are taking today include: one, making sure we take care of our customers and help them with their travel plans, which includes facilitating cancellations and working closely with our supply partners.
然而,我們今天採取的措施包括:第一,確保我們照顧好我們的客戶並幫助他們制定旅行計劃,其中包括促進取消以及與我們的供應合作夥伴密切合作。
Two, ensuring the health and safety of our over 26,000 employees around the world.
第二,確保我們全球 26,000 多名員工的健康和安全。
Three, managing our marketing efforts appropriately.
第三,適當管理我們的營銷工作。
We will continue to participate in those paid channels that provide us quality traffic and attractive ROIs, recognizing that we need to incorporate higher cancellation rates in our bidding calculations.
我們將繼續參與那些為我們提供優質流量和有吸引力的投資回報率的付費渠道,認識到我們需要在我們的出價計算中納入更高的取消率。
In regards to brand marketing, we will be very cognizant of when and where brand marketing money should be spent this year.
在品牌營銷方面,今年品牌營銷的錢應該花在什麼時候花在哪裡,我們會非常清楚。
Four, working with our travel suppliers so they are best positioned to achieve success on our platform.
第四,與我們的旅遊供應商合作,使他們能夠在我們的平台上取得成功。
And five, continuing to invest for the future.
第五,繼續為未來投資。
The company that provides a better travel service, a holistic, seamless, frictionless connected trip that delivers more value to both the traveler and our supply partners will create a lasting relationship with both travelers and suppliers, and we intend to create this service over time.
提供更好旅行服務的公司,為旅行者和我們的供應合作夥伴提供更多價值的整體、無縫、無摩擦的連接旅行,將與旅行者和供應商建立持久的關係,我們打算隨著時間的推移創造這種服務。
With that, I will now turn the call over to David for the financial review.
有了這個,我現在將把電話轉給大衛進行財務審查。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Glenn, and good afternoon.
謝謝你,格倫,下午好。
I'll review our operating results for the fourth quarter and 2019 and then discuss our thoughts on 2020 and our guidance for the first quarter.
我將回顧我們第四季度和 2019 年的經營業績,然後討論我們對 2020 年的看法和我們對第一季度的指導。
All growth rates are relative to the prior year comparable period, unless otherwise indicated.
除非另有說明,否則所有增長率均與上年同期相比。
Information regarding reconciliation to GAAP can be found in our earnings release.
有關與 GAAP 對賬的信息可以在我們的收益發布中找到。
Now on to our results for the quarter.
現在談談我們本季度的業績。
Our booked room night growth of 12% in Q4 exceeded the high end of our guidance range as growth accelerated through the quarter with a strong finish in December.
我們在第 4 季度的預訂間夜增長率為 12%,超出了我們指導範圍的上限,因為該季度增長加速,並在 12 月取得了強勁的收尾。
Our room night growth in Europe continue to exceed our expectations in Q4 despite a macro environment that remain cautious.
儘管宏觀環境仍然謹慎,但我們在第四季度的歐洲間夜增長繼續超出我們的預期。
Room night growth rates for the rest of the world also exceeded our expectations and grew slightly faster than Europe in Q4.
世界其他地區的間夜增長率也超出了我們的預期,第四季度的增長率略高於歐洲。
Average daily rates for accommodations or ADRs were down about 4% year-on-year in Q4 on a constant currency basis, which was in line with our guidance.
按固定匯率計算,第 4 季度住宿或 ADR 的平均每日房價同比下降約 4%,這符合我們的指引。
As indicated on our last earnings call, the year-over-year ADR decline was impacted by decreases in rates within several key markets such as the U.S., Japan and Hong Kong as well as an increasing mix to faster-growing, lower ADR markets and the impact of lapping 1% ADR growth in Q4 of last year.
正如我們在上次財報電話會議上指出的那樣,ADR 同比下降受到美國、日本和香港等幾個主要市場利率下降以及增長更快、ADR 較低的市場和去年第四季度 ADR 增長 1% 的影響。
Changes in foreign exchange rates reduced Q4 growth rates in U.S. dollars by approximately 1 percentage point versus last year.
外匯匯率的變化使以美元計算的第四季度增長率與去年相比下降了約 1 個百分點。
We estimate the change in FX rates impacted gross bookings, revenue and EBITDA growth in Q4 by a similar amount and EPS growth by less than 1 percentage point.
我們估計匯率變化對第四季度總預訂量、收入和 EBITDA 增長的影響相似,每股收益增長不到 1 個百分點。
Q4 gross bookings grew by 6% expressed in U.S. dollars and grew about 7% on a constant currency basis, coming in above the high end of our guidance range.
以美元計算,第四季度總預訂量增長 6%,按固定匯率計算增長約 7%,高於我們指導範圍的高端。
Consolidated revenue in the fourth quarter was $3.3 billion and grew by 4% in U.S. dollars and about 5% on a constant currency basis.
第四季度的合併收入為 33 億美元,按美元計算增長 4%,按固定匯率計算增長約 5%。
Advertising and other revenue, which is mainly comprised of KAYAK and OpenTable, grew by 3% in Q4 as we lap the benefit of the HotelsCombined acquisition in December.
主要由 KAYAK 和 OpenTable 組成的廣告和其他收入在第四季度增長了 3%,因為我們在 12 月份獲得了收購 HotelsCombined 的收益。
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $1.3 billion, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range and was up 2% year-over-year on a reported basis and about 3% on a constant currency basis.
第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 13 億美元,超出了我們指導範圍的上限,按報告基礎同比增長 2%,按固定匯率計算增長約 3%。
Performance marketing expense increased 2% year-on-year, which helped drive leverage of about 40 basis points in the quarter.
績效營銷費用同比增長 2%,這有助於推動本季度槓桿率上升約 40 個基點。
The year-on-year growth was driven by higher-than-expected volumes in our paid channels.
同比增長是由我們的付費渠道高於預期的數量推動的。
We spent $86 million on brand marketing in the quarter, which represented a decline of 31% versus Q4 last year and contributed about 130 basis points of leverage.
本季度我們在品牌營銷上花費了 8600 萬美元,與去年第四季度相比下降了 31%,貢獻了約 130 個基點的槓桿作用。
This decrease is in part driven by a ramp-up in spend in the second half of 2018.
這一下降的部分原因是 2018 年下半年支出增加。
We remain committed to investing in brand marketing in a disciplined manner going forward.
我們仍然致力於以有紀律的方式投資品牌營銷。
Sales and other expense decreased 1% versus Q4 last year and contributed about 30 basis points of leverage due to reduced chargeback expenses as well as a reclassification of certain sales and other expenses incurred during 2019 into contra revenue in Q4, both of which offset the increase in expenses related to the continued growth of our payments platform at Booking.com.
銷售和其他費用與去年第四季度相比下降了 1%,貢獻了約 30 個基點的槓桿,原因是拒付費用減少以及將 2019 年發生的某些銷售和其他費用重新分類為第四季度的抵銷收入,兩者都抵消了增長與我們在 Booking.com 的支付平台的持續增長相關的費用。
Personnel expense was in line with our forecast, growing 16% year-on-year and contributing about 175 basis points of deleverage in the quarter as expected, driven in part by lower year-end reversal of bonus accruals than we experienced in Q4 2018.
人事費用符合我們的預測,同比增長 16%,如預期在本季度貢獻了約 175 個基點的去槓桿化,部分原因是年終應計獎金逆轉低於我們 2018 年第四季度的水平。
G&A expenses increased 16% year-over-year on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes a $21 million travel transaction tax charge in Q4 of 2018.
G&A 費用在非 GAAP 基礎上同比增長 16%,其中不包括 2018 年第四季度的 2100 萬美元旅遊交易稅費用。
Non-GAAP G&A expenses contributed about 60 basis points of deleverage in the quarter.
非 GAAP G&A 費用在本季度貢獻了約 60 個基點的去槓桿化。
This year-over-year increase in G&A was driven largely by higher indirect taxes, including the French DST.
G&A 的同比增長主要是由更高的間接稅推動的,包括法國 DST。
Finally, information technology expenses increased 42% year-over-year driven by several items supporting the growth of the business, including payments to contractors, software license fees, outsourced data center and cloud costs.
最後,信息技術支出同比增長 42%,這得益於支持業務增長的多項項目,包括支付給承包商的費用、軟件許可費、外包數據中心和云成本。
Our non-GAAP EPS was $23.30, up 4% on a reported and constant currency basis versus the prior year.
我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 23.30 美元,按報告和固定匯率計算,與上一年相比增長 4%。
Non-GAAP net income reflects a non-GAAP tax rate of 17.7% in Q4, which is significantly higher than Q4 last year due to a onetime adjustment of approximately $72 million in Q4 2018 related to a provision of the Tax Act that was clarified by regulatory guidance issued in Q4 2018.
非美國通用會計準則淨收入反映了第 4 季度 17.7% 的非美國通用會計準則稅率,顯著高於去年第 4 季度,這是由於 2018 年第 4 季度與稅法規定相關的一次性調整約 7200 萬美元2018 年第四季度發布的監管指南。
Our Q4 tax rate was about 1 percentage point lower than our guidance due to some discrete items.
由於一些離散項目,我們的第四季度稅率比我們的指導低約 1 個百分點。
Our 9% lower share count in Q4 benefited EPS growth in the quarter.
我們在第四季度減少了 9% 的股票數量,這有利於該季度每股收益的增長。
On a GAAP basis, operating income increased by 3% and GAAP operating margin decreased by about 50 basis points compared to Q4 last year.
按 GAAP 計算,與去年第四季度相比,營業收入增長 3%,GAAP 營業利潤率下降約 50 個基點。
Q4 GAAP net income amounted to $1.2 billion or $27.75 per share, up 81% from Q4 2018.
第 4 季度 GAAP 淨收入為 12 億美元或每股 27.75 美元,比 2018 年第 4 季度增長 81%。
Our Q4 GAAP net income includes $326 million of pretax unrealized gains on our equity investments in Meituan and Ctrip and $47 million of FX remeasurement losses on our eurobonds.
我們第四季度的 GAAP 淨收入包括我們在美團和攜程的股權投資的 3.26 億美元稅前未實現收益以及我們歐元債券的 4700 萬美元外匯重新計量損失。
We exclude these unrealized losses and remeasurement gains from our non-GAAP results.
我們從我們的非 GAAP 結果中排除了這些未實現的損失和重新衡量的收益。
We had a GAAP tax rate of 17.5% for the quarter, which increased significantly from the prior year due to the tax impact of the items excluded from non-GAAP results as well as the fact, as I mentioned, the impact of the non-GAAP tax rate.
我們本季度的 GAAP 稅率為 17.5%,由於非 GAAP 結果中排除的項目的稅收影響以及我提到的非 -公認會計原則稅率。
In Q4, we generated $1.1 billion of operating cash flow, which declined 1% compared to Q4 last year.
第四季度,我們產生了 11 億美元的運營現金流,與去年第四季度相比下降了 1%。
Our free cash flow for the quarter was about $1 billion, which decreased by 1% compared to last year, mainly due to timing of payments, which reduced the growth by 15 percentage points.
我們本季度的自由現金流約為 10 億美元,與去年相比下降了 1%,這主要是由於付款時間的原因,這使增長率降低了 15 個百分點。
We repurchased $1.3 billion of our stock in Q4, bringing the total repurchases to the year to over $8 billion.
我們在第四季度回購了 13 億美元的股票,使全年回購總額超過 80 億美元。
As of the end of the year, we had about $11.5 billion remaining under our $15 billion repurchase authorization.
截至今年年底,我們的 150 億美元回購授權剩餘約 115 億美元。
We ended the quarter with $11.8 billion in cash and investments and $8.7 billion of outstanding debt.
本季度結束時,我們擁有 118 億美元的現金和投資以及 87 億美元的未償債務。
Looking back at 2019, we're quite pleased with our performance during the year as we produced steady room night growth in the 10% to 12% range, we delivered a very healthy 39% EBITDA margin while investing in the business and absorbing unplanned DST expenses.
回顧 2019 年,我們對這一年的表現感到非常滿意,因為我們在 10% 到 12% 的範圍內實現了穩定的間夜增長,我們在投資業務和吸收計劃外 DST 的同時實現了非常健康的 39% EBITDA 利潤率花費。
And we grew our non-GAAP EPS by 11% or around 15% on a constant currency basis, which exceeded our annual guidance of low double-digit growth.
我們的非 GAAP 每股收益增長了 11%,或按固定匯率計算增長了 15% 左右,這超過了我們年度低兩位數增長的指導。
Turning to 2020.
轉眼2020年。
Our initial outlook reflected a continuation of this operating model, i.e., to gain share in accommodations with some deceleration in room night growth; to invest in payments, merchandising and the connected trip, creating modest pressure on operating margins; and for EPS growth to benefit from our share repurchases.
我們的初步展望反映了這種運營模式的延續,即在間夜增長有所放緩的情況下獲得住宿份額;投資於支付、商品銷售和聯程旅行,對營業利潤率造成適度壓力;每股收益增長將從我們的股票回購中受益。
Due to a few mechanical factors, including the lapping of ADR declines and the phasing of personnel and G&A expenses during the year, we expected our earnings growth to be weighted largely to the second half of the year.
由於一些機械因素,包括年內 ADR 下降的重疊以及人員和 G&A 費用的分階段,我們預計我們的收益增長將主要集中在今年下半年。
Now turning to more recent events.
現在轉向最近發生的事件。
The coronavirus has had an impact across our business since it made news headlines on January 21.
自 1 月 21 日成為新聞頭條以來,冠狀病毒對我們的業務產生了影響。
The early impacts were in Greater China, but we also saw these impacts across Asia and to a lesser extent, in other regions outside of Asia as well.
早期的影響是在大中華區,但我們也在整個亞洲看到了這些影響,在較小程度上,在亞洲以外的其他地區也看到了這些影響。
To help with context, the APAC region represents a little over 20% of our room nights with no single country accounting for more than a mid-single-digit share of total room nights.
為了幫助理解背景,亞太地區占我們間夜量的 20% 多一點,沒有一個國家在總間夜量中所佔份額超過中個位數。
In APAC, we've seen an increase in cancellations, reduction in new bookings and pressure on ADRs.
在亞太地區,我們看到取消預訂增加、新預訂減少以及 ADR 壓力增加。
As you all know, it's not possible to predict where and to what degree outbreaks of the coronavirus will disrupt travel patterns.
眾所周知,無法預測冠狀病毒的爆發將在何處以及在何種程度上破壞旅行模式。
While the incidence of infections has slowed in China, in the last week alone, new outbreaks have occurred in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
儘管中國的感染髮病率有所放緩,但僅在上週,韓國、伊朗和意大利就出現了新的疫情。
We've been able to measure the impacts on our business so far in Asia and we've seen a recent impact on room night bookings in Europe following the outbreak in Italy.
到目前為止,我們已經能夠衡量對我們在亞洲業務的影響,並且我們已經看到意大利爆發疫情后最近對歐洲間夜預訂量的影響。
As a result, we're providing only a near-term outlook with a wider guidance range to account for the possibility there will be a growing travel disruption in Europe.
因此,我們僅提供具有更廣泛指導範圍的近期前景,以應對歐洲旅行中斷日益嚴重的可能性。
Based on where we are in the quarter and considering the continued impact of the coronavirus, we're forecasting Q1 booked room nights to be down 5% to 10% versus the prior year.
根據我們在本季度的情況並考慮到冠狀病毒的持續影響,我們預測第一季度的預訂間夜數將比去年同期下降 5% 至 10%。
Clearly, we're dealing with a very fluid situation and it's extremely difficult to predict where Q1 will come out, but this is our best estimate based upon the data we have available now.
顯然,我們正在處理一個非常不穩定的情況,很難預測第一季度的結果,但這是我們根據現有數據做出的最佳估計。
We forecast total gross bookings to decline 8% to 13% on a constant currency basis and about 200 basis points more in U.S. dollars.
我們預測按固定匯率計算總預訂量將下降 8% 至 13%,按美元計算將下降約 200 個基點。
Our Q1 forecast assumes that constant currency ADRs of the company will be down about 4%.
我們的第一季度預測假設公司的固定貨幣 ADR 將下降約 4%。
We forecast Q1 non-GAAP revenue to decline 3% to 7% on a constant currency basis and decline 200 basis points more in U.S. dollars.
我們預測第一季度非 GAAP 收入按固定匯率計算將下降 3% 至 7%,並以美元計算下降 200 個基點。
Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $560 million and $590 million, which is down 16% to 20% year-over-year on a constant currency basis and about 200 basis points more in U.S. dollars.
第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 5.6 億美元至 5.9 億美元之間,按固定匯率計算同比下降 16% 至 20%,按美元計算下降約 200 個基點。
We're forecasting Q1 non-GAAP EPS of approximately $9.05 to $9.65, which is 14% to 19% below Q1 2019.
我們預測第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益約為 9.05 美元至 9.65 美元,比 2019 年第一季度低 14% 至 19%。
On a constant currency basis, we estimate Q1 non-GAAP EPS to decrease year-on-year by approximately 12% to 17%.
在固定匯率的基礎上,我們估計第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益將同比下降約 12% 至 17%。
Our non-GAAP EPS forecast for Q1 includes an estimated income tax rate of approximately 18.5%.
我們對第一季度的非 GAAP 每股收益預測包括大約 18.5% 的估計所得稅率。
Our Q1 non-GAAP EPS guidance assumes a fully diluted share count of about 41.6 million shares, which is 9% below Q1 of last year.
我們的第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益指引假設完全攤薄後的股票數量約為 4160 萬股,比去年第一季度低 9%。
We forecast GAAP EPS to be between $7.95 and $8.55 for Q1.
我們預測第一季度的 GAAP 每股收益將在 7.95 美元至 8.55 美元之間。
Our GAAP EPS guidance for Q1 assumes a tax rate of approximately 18.5%.
我們對第一季度的 GAAP 每股收益指引假設稅率約為 18.5%。
We use a dollar to euro exchange rate of $1.10 when setting our Q1 guidance.
在設定第一季度指導時,我們使用美元兌歐元匯率 1.10 美元。
We have hedge contracts in place to substantially shield our first quarter EBITDA and net income from any further fluctuation in currencies versus the dollar between now and the end of the quarter, but the hedges do not protect our gross bookings, revenue or operating profit from the impact of foreign currency fluctuations.
從現在到本季度末,我們制定了對沖合約,以大幅保護我們的第一季度 EBITDA 和淨收入免受貨幣兌美元進一步波動的影響,但對沖並不能保護我們的總預訂量、收入或營業利潤免受外匯波動的影響。
Finally, a housekeeping item.
最後是家政用品。
Starting with our Q1 results and going forward, we plan on reporting our performance and brand marketing expenses on a combined basis as we view our overall marketing spend as an investment in customer acquisition and retention.
從第一季度的結果開始,我們計劃在合併的基礎上報告我們的業績和品牌營銷費用,因為我們將整體營銷支出視為對客戶獲取和保留的投資。
We'll now take your questions.
我們現在將回答您的問題。
Operator?
操作員?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley from Deutsche Bank.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley。
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
I guess just the first question, a bit of a clarification.
我想只是第一個問題,有點澄清。
I think, David, you said something about expecting some share gain with deceleration in room nights.
我想,戴維,你說了一些關於期望在客房間夜減速的情況下獲得一些份額收益的話。
I wasn't sure if I heard that correctly.
我不確定我是否聽錯了。
Is that kind of before the impact of the virus or including the impact of the virus?
那種是在病毒影響之前還是包括病毒影響?
Anything you can kind of share there.
任何你可以在那里分享的東西。
And along the same lines, ex the virus, are you seeing anything in particular changing with marketing ROIs as some competitors pull back in certain brands, in certain geographies?
沿著同樣的思路,除了病毒,隨著一些競爭對手在某些地區、某些品牌的撤退,你是否看到營銷投資回報率有什麼特別的變化?
And then, I guess, a second question, if I can, would just be, anything particular changing with regard to some of the SEO channel impacts from last quarter?
然後,我想,第二個問題,如果可以的話,只是關於上個季度的一些 SEO 渠道影響有什麼特別的變化嗎?
Are you seeing that spread to either new geographies or change in intensity?
您是否看到這種情況蔓延到新的地區或強度發生變化?
Anything you could share there would be great.
任何你能在那里分享的東西都會很棒。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Sure, Lloyd, thank you.
當然,勞埃德,謝謝你。
Let me start off answering the first question.
讓我開始回答第一個問題。
So yes, to clarify, what I said was, when we turn to 2020, we talked about our initial outlook, which is our outlook at the start of the year obviously around the time we were putting our plan together for the year.
所以,是的,澄清一下,我說的是,當我們談到 2020 年時,我們談到了我們的初步展望,這是我們在年初的展望,顯然是在我們制定今年的計劃的時候。
We talked about that reflect the continuation of the same operating model we delivered in 2019.
我們談到這反映了我們在 2019 年交付的相同運營模式的延續。
So my comments about gain share in accommodations with some deceleration in room nights, some modest pressure on operating margins and for EPS to benefit from our share buybacks was giving you a flavor of the shape of our profile for the year coming into the year before the coronavirus.
因此,我關於住宿份額增加但間夜量有所下降、營業利潤率受到一些適度壓力以及每股收益從我們的股票回購中受益的評論讓你了解了我們進入前一年的概況。冠狀病毒。
Yes.
是的。
And then on the SEO channel just to pick up your second.
然後在 SEO 頻道上拿起你的第二個。
I just want to kind of remind people, as we said, the SEO channel is a relatively small part of our business and has been for a period of time.
我只是想提醒人們,正如我們所說,SEO 渠道是我們業務中相對較小的一部分,並且已經存在了一段時間。
The SEO channel continues to be under pressure as the primary provider of that channel focus more upon their paid search rather than free search, but we continue to do well in that channel.
SEO 渠道繼續承受壓力,因為該渠道的主要提供商更多地關注他們的付費搜索而不是免費搜索,但我們在該渠道中繼續做得很好。
We have teams dedicated to it.
我們有專門的團隊。
We are pleased with our share in that channel.
我們很高興我們在該渠道中的份額。
As a channel, it is under continuing pressure, but as we said before, really contributes a very minor part of our overall business.
作為一個渠道,它承受著持續的壓力,但正如我們之前所說,它只占我們整體業務的一小部分。
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
Okay.
好的。
And then anything on just marketing ROIs outside of the impact of the virus given competitive dynamics?
在考慮到競爭動態的情況下,除了病毒的影響之外,還有什麼關於營銷投資回報率的嗎?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Let me start and maybe Glenn can add clarity.
讓我開始吧,也許 Glenn 可以更加清晰。
Again, I'll talk about Q4 because, obviously, Q4 was a very clean quarter relative and not having a virus in.
再次,我將談論第四季度,因為很明顯,第四季度是一個相對乾淨的季度,沒有病毒進入。
It's only a few weeks behind us so I think it's a good time to still talk about Q4.
它只落後我們幾個星期,所以我認為現在是談論第四季度的好時機。
We were pleased with our ROIs in the channels in Q4.
我們對第四季度渠道的投資回報率感到滿意。
We didn't see any major shifts.
我們沒有看到任何重大變化。
We mentioned that we saw continued leverage in our performance marketing spend because our performance marketing channels continue to grow less rapidly than the overall business so the leverage that we demonstrated was kind of a mix-driven leverage, a mathematic leverage.
我們提到我們在績效營銷支出中看到了持續的槓桿作用,因為我們的績效營銷渠道的增長速度繼續低於整體業務,因此我們展示的槓桿作用是一種混合驅動的槓桿作用,一種數學槓桿作用。
ROIs didn't really change very much in Q4, nothing to really note.
投資回報率在第四季度並沒有太大變化,沒有什麼值得特別注意的。
We're pleased with where they were.
我們對他們所在的位置感到滿意。
And I think was that the genesis of your question or you're also asking about current quarter as well?
而且我認為這是您問題的起源,還是您也在詢問當前季度?
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Research Analyst
That's great.
那太棒了。
I'll assume that the virus is making things pretty messy, but unless you want to add something.
我假設病毒讓事情變得非常混亂,但除非你想添加一些東西。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
No.
不。
I just wanted to stop there.
我只想到此為止。
I think that's the right place to stop.
我認為這是停止的正確位置。
Operator
Operator
We do have another question from the line of Mark Mahaney from RBC.
我們確實有來自 RBC 的 Mark Mahaney 的另一個問題。
Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - MD & Lead Internet Research Analyst
Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - MD & Lead Internet Research Analyst
I want to ask about 2 things.
我想問兩件事。
This kind of attach rate with the connected trip and how far along do you think you are in tapping into that opportunity.
這種連接旅行的附加率以及您認為您在利用該機會方面走了多遠。
I noticed that both rental car days and airline ticket unit growth rates nicely accelerated in the December quarter.
我注意到租車天數和機票單位增長率在 12 月季度都有很好的加速。
Looks like that's much easier comp in airline tickets, but you called out some kind of greater cross-selling opportunities you're getting with rental car.
看起來這在機票方面要容易得多,但你提出了一些你通過租車獲得的更大的交叉銷售機會。
So just talk about where you are in the process of doing that?
那麼就談談你在這樣做的過程中所處的位置?
Is it a small percentage that you've even attempted this at so we can get a sense of how much better the results could be in rental cars?
您嘗試過的比例是否很小,以便我們了解租車的結果會好多少?
And then, Glenn, when you were talking about the outlook, you seem to emphasize a little bit more streamlining costs in 2020.
然後,格倫,當你談到前景時,你似乎強調了 2020 年的更多精簡成本。
I don't think that was related to coronavirus or maybe it was, but I don't think it was.
我不認為這與冠狀病毒有關,或者可能與冠狀病毒有關,但我認為不是。
Sounded like you want to be a little bit more careful about costs or something like that.
聽起來您想對成本或類似問題更加小心。
Could you just explain the why behind that?
你能解釋一下背後的原因嗎?
Why get a little bit more focused on streamlining costs this year versus last year, unless it was all coronavirus, but I didn't get that impression.
為什麼今年比去年更專注於精簡成本,除非都是冠狀病毒,但我沒有那種印象。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Mark, yes, let me take the first one, the attach rates, et cetera.
馬克,是的,讓我拿第一個,附加費率等等。
And I think you called it out correctly.
我認為你說得對。
The rental car business has shown some good numbers.
租車業務顯示出一些不錯的數字。
You look in the supplemental statistics at the end of our press release and you can see some nice growth there.
你看看我們新聞稿末尾的補充統計數據,你會看到一些不錯的增長。
And part of that growth is coming from that cross-sell part of our connected trip that we're building out.
這種增長的一部分來自我們正在構建的互聯旅行的交叉銷售部分。
And you're also correct in your statement about the air business.
你關於航空業務的陳述也是正確的。
Air business is so early.
航空業務這麼早。
We just really are getting that up and running that you're not really seeing any of the increase there from that or not enough to matter right now.
我們只是真的在啟動和運行它,你並沒有真正看到那裡的任何增長,或者現在還不夠重要。
It's very, very low attach rates.
這是非常非常低的附加率。
When I look at those numbers, I believe, over time, we should increase those significantly.
當我查看這些數字時,我相信隨著時間的推移,我們應該顯著增加這些數字。
And it's going to take some time as we continue to optimize, figuring what's the best way to present it, where to show it.
隨著我們繼續優化,確定什麼是展示它的最佳方式,在哪裡展示它,這將需要一些時間。
One of the things I'm very proud about is the center we built in Tel Aviv that is filled with a bunch of machine learning experts, AI geniuses, who really look at all the different parts of the way we present things.
我非常自豪的一件事是我們在特拉維夫建立的中心,裡面聚集了一群機器學習專家、人工智能天才,他們真正關注我們呈現事物的方式的所有不同部分。
And they're trying to come up with what is the best way to present an offer to a traveler at the right time and putting in what is the right merchandising benefit that we should do it to get the right conversion and the right bottom line.
他們正在努力想出什麼是在正確的時間向旅行者提供報價的最佳方式,並提供我們應該這樣做的正確的營銷優勢,以獲得正確的轉化率和正確的底線。
It's something that the more data we get, the better we'll know what the right thing to do, but it's something that's going to take time.
我們獲得的數據越多,我們就越清楚該怎麼做,但這需要時間。
So that's the answer to that one.
這就是那個問題的答案。
Regarding costs, you're also absolutely correct on that.
關於成本,您也完全正確。
One of the things when I took the job over in Amsterdam as CEO of Booking.com, and I've been there now a little more than 6 months, is looking at what are we spending on, where are we spending, what projects are we on, which ones are the right ones, which ones should we not be doing right now, and then taking that throughout our entire organization.
當我在阿姆斯特丹接手 Booking.com 首席執行官的工作時,其中一件事是,我到那裡已經 6 個多月了,就是看看我們在什麼上花錢,我們在哪里花錢,有什麼項目我們繼續,哪些是正確的,哪些是我們現在不應該做的,然後在我們整個組織中採用。
I always believe that you should be a cost-effective company.
我始終相信你們應該是一家高性價比的公司。
And I believe it's also very natural as companies grow very rapidly and achieve great success on the bottom line, sometimes discipline lightens up a little bit.
而且我相信這也是很自然的,因為公司發展非常迅速並在底線取得了巨大成功,有時紀律會有所減輕。
So certainly before the coronavirus, I was already thinking that we need to make sure that we're doing everything we can to spend money correctly.
所以當然在冠狀病毒出現之前,我就已經在想,我們需要確保我們正在盡一切努力正確地花錢。
One of the things I've mentioned in the calls over the last couple of quarters is us bringing all of our companies together better.
我在過去幾個季度的電話會議中提到的一件事是我們將所有公司更好地整合在一起。
And that one of the benefits of that is to get some efficiencies in our spend, a real cost procurement type project.
這樣做的好處之一是提高我們的支出效率,這是一個真正的成本採購類型的項目。
And in the past, we've run all of these companies independently.
過去,我們獨立經營所有這些公司。
And that was the right thing to do at the time.
這在當時是正確的做法。
But while doing that, you do lose out on some cost efficiencies.
但是在這樣做的同時,您確實會失去一些成本效率。
Now the state of the company where it's at, now it's time to start bringing that in, and that's what we're going to be doing.
現在公司的狀態,現在是時候開始引入它了,這就是我們要做的。
Operator
Operator
We do have another question from the line of Kevin Kopelman from Cowen.
我們確實有來自 Cowen 的 Kevin Kopelman 的另一個問題。
Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
Could you give us more color on the latest trends in Europe travel bookings that you've seen over the last few days following the outbreak of the coronavirus in Italy?
在意大利冠狀病毒爆發後的過去幾天裡,您能否詳細介紹歐洲旅行預訂的最新趨勢?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Kevin, this is David.
是的,凱文,這是大衛。
Let me take that.
讓我拿那個。
Maybe just kind of maybe frame it in the way that the quarter shapes up and our projections do take into account what we've seen in the last few days.
也許只是以季度形成的方式來構建它,我們的預測確實考慮到了我們在過去幾天看到的情況。
So let me kind of give you a lay of the land, first of all, by region, not surprising.
因此,讓我首先按地區給您介紹一下這片土地,這不足為奇。
We already mentioned that China is the worst impacted.
我們已經提到中國是受影響最嚴重的。
Asia, excluding China, has also been impacted for some time.
一段時間以來,亞洲(不包括中國)也受到影響。
The rest of the world, which obviously includes Europe and Europe's a big piece of that for us, was growing through February, but we also expect it to be impacted to the negative in March as well.
世界其他地區,顯然包括歐洲和歐洲對我們來說很大一部分,在整個 2 月份都在增長,但我們也預計它也會在 3 月份受到負面影響。
And to give you a bit more color in terms of just how it played across the quarter, on a consolidated basis, we, of course, saw room night growth in January, even though we saw some tapering off at the end with the virus hitting the news on the 21st.
為了讓您更清楚地了解它在整個季度的表現,在綜合的基礎上,我們當然看到 1 月份的間夜增長,儘管我們看到最後隨著病毒的襲擊而逐漸減少21日的消息。
Expect February to be approximately flat from a growth rate point of view.
從增長率的角度來看,預計 2 月份將大致持平。
And therefore, to get to our guidance for the quarter, expect to see declines in March.
因此,要獲得我們對本季度的指導,預計 3 月份會出現下降。
Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Got it.
知道了。
And that March expectation is based on just the worsening kind of trend over the last few days?
而 3 月份的預期只是基於過去幾天不斷惡化的趨勢?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
I mean, we really, obviously, as I mentioned, we're dealing with a very fluid situation, very difficult to predict what's going on because we're responding to something that we have no control over.
我的意思是,我們真的很明顯,正如我提到的,我們正在處理一個非常多變的情況,很難預測正在發生的事情,因為我們正在對我們無法控制的事情做出反應。
We're giving you kind of our best view on it.
我們正在為您提供我們最好的看法。
So when we built what we expect to happen in March and created the guidance range, we're looking very specifically at what has happened over the last few days after the outbreak in Italy and the response we've seen in Europe in response to that, which is not surprising has been negative.
因此,當我們建立我們預期在 3 月份發生的情況並創建指導範圍時,我們正在非常具體地關注意大利疫情爆發後過去幾天發生的情況以及我們在歐洲看到的應對措施,這並不奇怪一直是負面的。
So yes, we are expecting and we're seeing, even though we're going to get room night growth through rest of world in February, towards the end of February that is already in decline.
所以是的,我們期待並且我們正在看到,儘管我們將在 2 月份通過世界其他地區獲得間夜增長,但到 2 月底已經在下降。
And we expect it to continue to decline into March.
我們預計它會繼續下降到三月份。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Justin Post from Bank of America.
我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。
Justin Post - MD
Justin Post - MD
A couple of questions.
幾個問題。
I guess it would be helpful if you could give us a view on past behavior when you've had travel disruptions and people cancel their trips or your most loyal customers don't book.
我想如果您能向我們提供有關過去旅行中斷、人們取消旅行或最忠實的客戶未預訂時的行為的看法,那將會很有幫助。
How long does it take before they start going on trips again or do you see a time frame where people cancel and then rebook?
他們需要多長時間才能再次開始旅行,或者您是否看到人們取消然後重新預訂的時間範圍?
I know you can't be too specific, but any thoughts on that?
我知道你不能說得太具體,但對此有什麼想法嗎?
And then second, it's interesting your main competitor pulling back spending, you're talking about some cost savings.
其次,有趣的是你的主要競爭對手縮減開支,你在談論一些成本節約。
Do you think there's inefficiencies in marketing or other channels in travel and maybe the industry as a whole could benefit as people take a deeper look at their costs?
您是否認為旅遊營銷或其他渠道效率低下,並且隨著人們更深入地了解成本,整個行業是否會受益?
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Justin, I think it would not be wise to try and use past experience as an analogy for what will happen in the future.
賈斯汀,我認為嘗試使用過去的經驗來類比未來將發生的事情是不明智的。
The situation now is very different.
現在的情況已經很不一樣了。
Say, I've now been in this business, in fact, this week, it will be 20 years I've been at this company.
說,我現在從事這項業務,事實上,本週,我將在這家公司工作 20 年。
My anniversary is Friday, 20 years.
我的周年紀念日是星期五,20 週年。
And so I've seen a lot of exogenous factors, as I mentioned, impacting travel, some extremely severe.
因此,正如我所提到的,我看到了很多影響旅行的外部因素,其中一些非常嚴重。
And I won't go through all of them because we'll use up the entire time for the call.
我不會講完所有這些,因為我們會用完整個通話時間。
That being said, they all have different effects and different rebound time periods.
也就是說,它們都有不同的效果和不同的反彈時間段。
So it's not going to be helpful for me to tell you what took after 9/11 or after the GFC or after swine flu or after the volcano in Iceland.
因此,我告訴您 9/11 之後、全球金融危機之後、豬流感之後或冰島火山之後發生了什麼對我來說沒有幫助。
I actually could go on and on and on, let me stop there.
我實際上可以繼續下去,繼續下去,讓我停在那裡。
So I really can't be that helpful.
所以我真的幫不上什麼忙。
And you'll just have to make your own best guesstimates which will be as good as anybody else's guestimates.
你只需要做出你自己最好的猜測,這將與其他人的猜測一樣好。
Regarding spending, we have very high margins compared to anybody else in the industry, but that does not give us a license to waste money.
關於支出,與業內其他任何人相比,我們的利潤率都非常高,但這並沒有給我們浪費金錢的許可。
And I want to continue to always be looking, are we spending correctly every single part of this company.
我想繼續關注,我們是否正確地花費了這家公司的每一部分。
And so we can then spend the money in the right place at the right time.
這樣我們就可以在正確的時間把錢花在正確的地方。
In terms of marketing, there probably is a lot of waste in the industry, probably.
在營銷方面,這個行業可能存在很多浪費。
And I think we can see that some people who are probably going to be pulling back in terms of their marketing.
而且我認為我們可以看到一些人可能會在營銷方面退縮。
We like to think that we've been efficient and effective, but I think there's always room everywhere to do better.
我們喜歡認為我們一直是高效和有效的,但我認為到處都有做得更好的空間。
And we're going to continue to do so.
我們將繼續這樣做。
That's only the right way to try and have a long-term successful company.
這才是嘗試擁有一家長期成功的公司的正確方法。
Towards your first question, I am confident the business will be coming back.
關於您的第一個問題,我相信業務將會恢復。
It's something that we've seen over and over and over again.
這是我們一遍又一遍地看到的東西。
As I said many, many times here, travel is a basic need for people.
正如我在這裡多次說過的那樣,旅行是人們的基本需求。
They have been doing it for a very, very long time.
他們已經做了很長時間了。
And as soon as the air clears, so to speak, you'll see people will be coming back to travel.
可以這麼說,一旦空氣清新,你就會看到人們會回來旅行。
Operator
Operator
We do have another question from the line of Brian Nowak from Morgan Stanley.
我們確實有來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak 的另一個問題。
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst
I have 2, please.
我有 2 個。
David, just I appreciate the month-over-month commentary for the first quarter, but maybe just so we can all sort of better understand the underlying durability of growth.
大衛,我很欣賞第一季度的逐月評論,但也許只是這樣我們才能更好地理解增長的潛在持久性。
How big of a room night and EBITDA headwind have you put into the guide to factor in corona for the first quarter?
您將第一季度的電暈因素納入指南中有多大的間夜和 EBITDA 逆風?
And then the second one, Glenn, just sort of talk about opportunities in sort of untapped geographies.
然後是第二個,格倫,只是談論未開發地區的機會。
Talk to us about how you think about the importance and the opportunity to focus more on the U.S. from a branding and a performance marketing perspective this year to perhaps take more share in that area.
與我們談談您如何看待今年從品牌和績效營銷的角度更多地關注美國的重要性和機會,以便在該領域獲得更多份額。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
Okay.
好的。
Thanks, Brian.
謝謝,布萊恩。
I'll take the first part of it.
我將採取它的第一部分。
I'm going to try to avoid getting into specific growth rates by month.
我將盡量避免按月計算具體增長率。
I've given you a flavor.
我給了你一個味道。
I think you can do some back of the envelope math to kind of figure out what March has to look like in terms of getting to a minus 5% to minus 10% range.
我認為你可以做一些粗略的計算,以弄清楚 3 月在達到負 5% 到負 10% 的範圍內會是什麼樣子。
Way that we've looked at this is that we have, as I mentioned in my answer to Kevin, have looked at very much to what's happened to the last few days and anticipating at the lower end of the range that the travel environment in Europe may get worse because we will be surprised if there's only one outbreak in Europe over the course of the rest of the quarter.
我們看待這個問題的方式是,正如我在對凱文的回答中提到的,我們已經非常關注過去幾天發生的事情,並預計歐洲的旅行環境將處於範圍的低端可能會變得更糟,因為如果在本季度餘下的時間里歐洲只爆發一次疫情,我們會感到驚訝。
So we've taken into account what we saw happening over the last week, which, of course, is led by a lot of cancellations.
所以我們已經考慮了上週發生的事情,當然,這是由大量取消導致的。
So over time, it may not be quite as bad as we're seeing than last week because you see, obviously, there's a different growth rate on underlying bookings vis-à-vis cancellations.
所以隨著時間的推移,它可能不會像我們上週看到的那樣糟糕,因為你會看到,很明顯,基本預訂與取消的增長率不同。
The early reaction to these news events is usually you get a spike in cancellations and things can moderate out.
對這些新聞事件的早期反應通常是取消數量激增,事情會緩和下來。
But we've taken into account what we've seen happening over the course of the last week.
但我們已經考慮了上週發生的事情。
We projected that for the rest of the quarter and recognize that, in fact, it may get worse if there are additional outbreaks in Europe or further slowdowns in the rest of the world.
我們預計本季度剩餘時間會出現這種情況,並認識到,事實上,如果歐洲爆發更多疫情或世界其他地區進一步放緩,情況可能會變得更糟。
So that's how we've tried to intelligently give you some guidance data points from obviously data that we're getting that's moving very rapidly, but it is the best data that we have until this morning.
因此,這就是我們試圖從我們正在快速移動的明顯數據中智能地為您提供一些指導數據點的方式,但這是我們今天早上之前擁有的最好的數據。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
And in regards to our opportunities around the world, the U.S. is, without doubt, our biggest opportunity.
就我們在世界各地的機會而言,美國無疑是我們最大的機會。
It is an enormous market that we under-index significantly.
這是一個巨大的市場,我們大大低估了指數。
And the reason for it, why we have not achieved what we'd like to yet.
以及它的原因,為什麼我們還沒有實現我們想要的。
And historical, as you know, Booking.com was always a hotel-only company.
如您所知,歷史上 Booking.com 一直是一家僅限酒店的公司。
And we didn't have an air product there, for example.
例如,我們那裡沒有航空產品。
Many Americans like to start their travel business using air.
許多美國人喜歡使用航空開始他們的旅行業務。
Now we're going to be bringing out an air product over time.
現在我們將隨著時間的推移推出空氣產品。
That will be one.
那將是一個。
Second thing is extremely price-competitive, price-sensitive consumer in the U.S. Booking.com, historically, an agency player, meaning the price was set by the hotels or by the non-hotel accommodations.
其次是美國的價格競爭力極強、對價格敏感的消費者。 Booking.com 歷史上是一家代理公司,這意味著價格由酒店或非酒店住宿機構設定。
We believe that we have to be able to merchandise, meaning adjusting what that value to the consumer is going to be.
我們相信我們必須能夠商品化,這意味著調整對消費者的價值。
But to do that, you got to have a payment product.
但要做到這一點,你必須有一個支付產品。
It was only last quarter that we got running the domestic payment product for our U.S. consumer.
直到上個季度,我們才開始為我們的美國消費者運行國內支付產品。
So that's another one.
那是另一個。
Another big issue, packages.
另一個大問題,包裹。
Many Americans like to use a package product or like to do some sort of combination that will get them more value.
許多美國人喜歡使用包裝產品,或者喜歡進行某種組合以獲得更多價值。
Well, we're just starting that now.
好吧,我們現在才剛剛開始。
One of the things I'm very proud about is working between Priceline.com and Booking.com to come up with a package product for the U.S. consumers, and we're just getting that out.
令我感到非常自豪的一件事是 Priceline.com 和 Booking.com 之間的合作,為美國消費者提供了一種套餐產品,我們剛剛推出。
The other thing is, we have other assets to help bring consumers to our sites and make them aware of the great things we have.
另一件事是,我們還有其他資產可以幫助將消費者帶到我們的網站並讓他們了解我們擁有的偉大事物。
One, for example, OpenTable.
一個,例如,OpenTable。
A lot of people are using OpenTable every month.
很多人每個月都在使用 OpenTable。
In the past, we have never done anything to really bring together the power of the OpenTable platform and the Booking.com platform in a way they'll provide more value to consumers.
過去,我們從未做過任何事情來真正將 OpenTable 平台和 Booking.com 平台的力量結合起來,從而為消費者提供更多價值。
So lots of things that we're working on because I do believe the U.S. is a great opportunity for us to help build out our business.
我們正在做很多事情,因為我相信美國是我們幫助建立業務的絕佳機會。
Operator
Operator
We have another question from the line of Justin Patterson from Raymond James.
我們還有另一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Justin Patterson。
Justin Tyler Patterson - Internet Analyst
Justin Tyler Patterson - Internet Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
One on connected trip first.
首先是連接旅行。
How should we think about scaling supply through your own assets and third-party partners on the attractions and dining side?
我們應該如何考慮通過自己的資產和第三方合作夥伴在景點和餐飲方面擴大供應?
With partners in there, is there anything you need to control to ensure an optimal customer experience?
有了合作夥伴,您需要控制什麼來確保最佳的客戶體驗嗎?
And then the second question is on marketing.
然後第二個問題是關於營銷的。
As your direct channel mix grows and your payments business grows, how do you think about that incremental ROI of using coupons to drive conversion versus, say, attracting customers via brand and performance marketing?
隨著您的直接渠道組合和支付業務的增長,您如何看待使用優惠券推動轉化的增量投資回報率,而不是通過品牌和績效營銷吸引客戶?
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
I want to do the first, and I'll let David being our CFO, he can talk about how we're going to optimize in terms of coupons.
我想做第一個,我會讓大衛成為我們的首席財務官,他可以談談我們將如何在優惠券方面進行優化。
You're right in terms that in an ideal world you would like to have all of your supply directly connect to us and you prefer in an ideal world not to be using third-party suppliers.
您的說法是正確的,在理想的世界中,您希望所有供應直接連接到我們,並且在理想的世界中您更喜歡不使用第三方供應商。
That being said, that's a balance against speed to market and making sure you have the supply necessary to create a good offer to the consumers.
話雖這麼說,但這是與上市速度和確保您擁有為消費者提供良好報價所必需的供應之間的平衡。
So in the interest of speed, we have gone with third-party providers to provide inventory that we don't have.
因此,為了提高速度,我們與第三方供應商合作,提供我們沒有的庫存。
I mentioned OpenTable a little while ago.
我剛才提到了 OpenTable。
Well, OpenTable has a great product.
嗯,OpenTable 有一個很棒的產品。
They do a lot of business in a lot of different cities, but there are also a lot of cities around the world that they don't do business.
他們在很多不同的城市做很多生意,但在世界上也有很多城市他們不做生意。
And we want to provide that dining opportunity to our consumers in as many cities as we can so we will partner with others.
我們希望在盡可能多的城市為我們的消費者提供這種用餐機會,以便我們與其他人合作。
Attractions, the same thing.
景點,同理。
We had our own contracts with supply, but there are a lot of places in the world where people are traveling, so to make sure that we have the supply, we're going to third parties.
我們有自己的供應合同,但世界上有很多地方都有人們旅行,所以為了確保我們有供應,我們會去第三方。
Over time, we believe that in the long run having your own supply helps you in terms of creating that truly seamless connected trip, but speed matters in this market so we're going to do that, too.
隨著時間的推移,我們相信,從長遠來看,擁有自己的供應可以幫助您創造真正無縫的連接旅行,但速度在這個市場上很重要,所以我們也將這樣做。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes.
是的。
And Justin, on the different marketing channels.
還有賈斯汀,在不同的營銷渠道上。
First of all, we're very pleased to build our direct business and it's very important for the future and the connected trip and the app and all things kind of drive in that direction, but the performance marketing channels are also really important sources of acquisition of new customers for us.
首先,我們很高興建立我們的直接業務,這對未來非常重要,互聯旅行和應用程序以及所有朝這個方向發展的東西,但績效營銷渠道也是非常重要的收購來源的新客戶。
And sometimes, some existing customers can come back to that net as well.
有時,一些現有客戶也可以回到該網絡。
But to answer your question, we look at all these on a very measured incremental ROI basis.
但為了回答您的問題,我們在非常謹慎的增量投資回報率基礎上查看所有這些。
We can really measure our different activities and compare them on a very comparable basis.
我們真的可以衡量我們的不同活動,並在非常可比的基礎上進行比較。
So when it comes to things like coupons or other attractions we may only offer through one of our channels, we just look at the ROI on that vis-à-vis other channels and decide where we lean in or don't as the case may be.
因此,當涉及到我們可能僅通過我們的一種渠道提供的優惠券或其他景點之類的東西時,我們只是看看相對於其他渠道的投資回報率,然後根據情況決定我們在何處傾斜或不傾斜是。
So we have pretty good metrics on all things like that because we are able to measure the short-term return on those investments.
所以我們對所有類似的事情都有很好的指標,因為我們能夠衡量這些投資的短期回報。
Again, longer term, we're looking to drive people towards the direct channel, particularly towards the app.
同樣,從長遠來看,我們希望將人們推向直接渠道,尤其是應用程序。
And Glenn mentioned how well downloaded that is and how it's becoming very much a powerful app in the travel space.
Glenn 提到了它的下載量以及它如何成為旅行領域非常強大的應用程序。
And as the connected trip becomes a bigger piece of the business and the app becomes a way to experience the connected trip during the trip, it's even more strategic.
隨著聯網旅行在業務中的佔比越來越大,應用程序成為在旅途中體驗聯網旅行的一種方式,它更具戰略意義。
But tactically, we can look at all these different things, including things like couponing on a very measured basis and decide to lean in based upon which ones give us both the short-term returns and also create the highest level of repeat or return to direct activity after that initial offer.
但從戰術上講,我們可以審視所有這些不同的事情,包括在非常慎重的基礎上提供優惠券,並根據哪些給我們帶來短期回報並創造最高水平的重複或直接返回來決定依靠最初報價後的活動。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Deepak Mathivanan from Barclays.
我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Deepak Mathivanan。
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst
Great.
偉大的。
David, last year, you talked about achieving double-digit earnings growth and then exceeded it pretty nicely ex FX.
大衛,去年,你談到實現兩位數的收入增長,然後在外匯市場之外很好地超過了它。
Understand the situation is a little bit more fluid right now and the color you provided on the operating model was helpful.
了解現在的情況有點多變,您在操作模型上提供的顏色很有幫助。
How should we think about those things kind of translate into earnings growth for this year?
我們應該如何考慮這些因素如何轉化為今年的收益增長?
And then how are you thinking about using the balance sheet for share repurchases in the near term when there is like a disruption currently going on?
那麼,當目前正在發生中斷時,您如何考慮在短期內使用資產負債表進行股票回購?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Sure, Deepak, thanks for the question.
當然,迪帕克,謝謝你的提問。
Let me take the first part of it.
讓我來談談它的第一部分。
So yes, I mean, we talked about our operating model expectations pre-coronavirus as a continuation of the model.
所以,是的,我的意思是,我們談到了冠狀病毒爆發前我們的運營模型期望作為該模型的延續。
I think it was quite successful for us in 2019.
我認為這對我們來說在 2019 年非常成功。
And I don't want to get to specific targets for 2020 because there's not a lot of point in putting out a hypothetical forecast for the year, which we can never measure against and bridge against because, obviously, the year is going to come out very different from what we expected it only a few weeks ago, but we were pleased with the way that 2019 came out if you kind of look back at Q4, look at 2019, understand the underlying health of the business.
而且我不想達到 2020 年的具體目標,因為對這一年做出假設性預測沒有多大意義,我們永遠無法衡量和彌補這一年,因為很明顯,這一年即將到來與我們幾週前的預期大不相同,但如果您回顧一下第四季度,看看 2019 年,了解業務的潛在健康狀況,我們對 2019 年的表現感到滿意。
And we believe that there's no reason why that model can't continue in normal times.
我們相信,沒有理由不能在正常時期繼續這種模式。
And then, Glenn, you want to talk about second part, balance sheet?
然後,格倫,你想談談第二部分,資產負債表?
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Yes.
是的。
So we are very pleased to have a very strong balance sheet, significant amount of free cash.
所以我們很高興擁有非常強大的資產負債表,大量的自由現金。
We have a very good credit rating.
我們的信用評級非常好。
And the question really is, as we've always had, is how should we best use our capital.
正如我們一直以來的問題一樣,真正的問題是我們應該如何最好地利用我們的資本。
One of the things has always been share repurchases.
其中一件事一直是股票回購。
Another thing that we always do is we're always looking at other companies that could potentially help add to our connected trip strategic vision.
我們一直在做的另一件事是,我們一直在尋找可能有助於增加我們互聯旅行戰略願景的其他公司。
And we're going to continue to look at that.
我們將繼續關注這一點。
Certainly, valuations have changed significantly in the recent past, and that may provide an opportunity for us in both areas.
當然,估值在最近發生了重大變化,這可能為我們在這兩個領域提供機會。
But as David says, it's a very fluid situation right now and we're not going to box ourselves into anything right this second.
但正如 David 所說,現在的情況非常不穩定,我們現在不會把自己困在任何事情上。
I will say though, however, we do look at this very, very carefully because we do want to be agile.
不過,我要說的是,我們確實非常非常仔細地看待這個問題,因為我們確實想要變得敏捷。
Operator
Operator
We have another question from the line of Eric Sheridan from UBS.
來自瑞銀的埃里克·謝里丹 (Eric Sheridan) 提出了另一個問題。
Eric James Sheridan - MD and Equity Research Internet Analyst
Eric James Sheridan - MD and Equity Research Internet Analyst
Maybe if I can, a few around cost structure and how you're thinking about investing in the business in sort of a relatively uncertain environment.
如果可以的話,也許可以圍繞成本結構以及您如何考慮在相對不確定的環境中投資業務進行一些討論。
Is there a way to tease out what are some of the investments you plan on making just because they fit with the strategic vision, they're going to be made for the long term, irrespective of how the environment arcs up or down over the next sort of couple of quarters?
有沒有一種方法可以梳理出你計劃進行的一些投資,只是因為它們符合戰略願景,它們將長期進行,而不管接下來的環境如何上升或下降幾個季度?
And how much of it is more variable in nature, where you might tune up or down investments, so we could better understand the variable piece that will probably more likely track with how room nights either get better or worse from the excellent results in Q4 versus the cautionary results or guide for Q1.
以及其中有多少在本質上更具可變性,您可以在其中調整投資,因此我們可以更好地理解可變部分,它可能更有可能跟踪第四季度與第四季度的出色結果相比,房間間夜數如何變得更好或更糟Q1 的警告結果或指南。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Sure.
當然。
So I've been talking about our long-term strategic vision for some time now since I became CEO of the holding company a little more than 3 years ago and how important it is to create and continue to create value for all sides of this marketplace.
因此,自從 3 年多前我成為控股公司的首席執行官以來,我一直在談論我們的長期戰略願景,以及為這個市場的各個方面創造和繼續創造價值的重要性.
And we're going to continue to do that.
我們將繼續這樣做。
And that requires investing in people in terms of code, making sure we are providing something that is a differentiator from what is out there right now.
這需要在代碼方面對人員進行投資,確保我們提供的東西與現在的東西不同。
And there is no reason to slow that down, stop that or hold back on that.
沒有理由放慢速度、停止或阻止它。
The sooner we get out that truly superior travel service, the better we will be.
我們越早獲得真正優質的旅行服務,我們就會越好。
And I want to be in that position when we come out of this current environment, which is something that is unexpected but will end.
當我們走出當前的環境時,我想處於那個位置,這是出乎意料但會結束的事情。
I want to come out of that as soon as possible with the best services that we have.
我想以我們擁有的最好的服務盡快擺脫困境。
So we're going to continue on that.
所以我們將繼續這樣做。
We are not changing that at all.
我們根本沒有改變這一點。
Now in terms of investments, in terms of marketing and things like that, naturally, you always want to make adjustments based on what the environment is.
現在在投資方面,在營銷方面等等,自然地,你總是想根據環境做出調整。
So for, as I mentioned, about brand marketing.
所以,正如我提到的,關於品牌營銷。
Well, we are not going to be making brand marketing to people who are not listening to that message at all.
好吧,我們不會向根本不聽該信息的人進行品牌營銷。
If you're not thinking about traveling, you're not listening to a travel ad, it's foolish for us to invest money in a brand marketing campaign.
如果你不是在考慮旅行,你不是在聽旅遊廣告,那麼我們投資品牌營銷活動是愚蠢的。
And that's an example, an extreme on the other side.
這是一個例子,是另一邊的極端。
And in between, there are always different things in between that we are going to be making adjustments as we go throughout the year.
在這兩者之間,總是有不同的事情發生,我們將在全年進行調整。
And we've always been doing that.
我們一直在這樣做。
That's no different.
那沒什麼不同。
David, anything to add?
大衛,有什麼要補充的嗎?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Eric, I'll just maybe put a little bit of a framework around what Glenn talked about.
是的,Eric,我可能會圍繞 Glenn 談到的內容建立一個框架。
So if you think of operating expenses and just kind of look at 2019 for a second, about $9.5 billion, a little over half of our OpEx is really variable with volume.
因此,如果您考慮運營費用,稍微看一下 2019 年,大約 95 億美元,我們的運營支出中有一半多一點是隨數量變化的。
Obviously, our performance marketing change with volume up and down.
顯然,我們的績效營銷隨著音量的增減而變化。
Our brand marketing is clearly not volume-related.
我們的品牌營銷顯然與銷量無關。
But obviously, as Glenn just said, no point spending a lot of brand if people are not primarily thinking about travel.
但顯然,正如 Glenn 剛才所說,如果人們主要考慮的不是旅行,那麼花很多錢是沒有意義的。
A large piece of our sales and other expenses also relates to volume as well because that ties back to the merchant processing costs on our payment platform.
我們的很大一部分銷售和其他費用也與數量有關,因為這與我們支付平台上的商家處理成本有關。
So over half of our OpEx really is directly tied to the volume within the business.
因此,我們一半以上的運營支出確實與業務量直接相關。
Now obviously, there are volume-related aspects in the other areas, which are mainly in our personnel, G&A, IT, et cetera.
現在顯然,其他領域也有與數量相關的方面,主要是我們的人員、G&A、IT 等。
And obviously, there's some fixed and there's some variable expenses there.
顯然,那裡有一些固定費用,也有一些可變費用。
But if you think about our cost structure, it really is quite variable with the larger expense lines being tied to volume quite directly.
但是如果你考慮一下我們的成本結構,它確實是非常多變的,因為較大的費用線與數量直接相關。
And of course, in the areas that are not tied directly, there are things we can continue to do to refine and optimize as Glenn talked about.
當然,在沒有直接聯繫的領域,我們可以繼續做一些事情來完善和優化 Glenn 所說的。
Operator
Operator
We do have another question from the line of Naved Khan from SunTrust.
我們確實有來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan 的另一個問題。
Naved Ahmad Khan - Analyst
Naved Ahmad Khan - Analyst
A couple of questions.
幾個問題。
So David, in your commentary, you spoke about maybe 2020 seeing payments processed through your own payment platform going to 25%.
所以大衛,在你的評論中,你談到了可能在 2020 年看到通過你自己的支付平台處理的付款將達到 25%。
What are the levers that you control to kind of get that from 15% in 2019 to 25% this year?
您控制哪些槓桿可以將其從 2019 年的 15% 提高到今年的 25%?
And then the other question I have was just maybe, can you shed some light on maybe early results from the Grab partnership, how that might be working for you?
然後我的另一個問題是也許,你能否闡明 Grab 合作夥伴關係的早期結果,這對你有何影響?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Sure.
當然。
So let me start off with the payments platform.
因此,讓我從支付平台開始。
Actually, Glenn was the one who gave the numbers out, but let me just kind of talk to you about how we see it developing and the impact it will have on our income statement.
實際上,是格倫給出了這些數字,但讓我來談談我們如何看待它的發展以及它將對我們的損益表產生的影響。
So as you see, we basically had to grow from 10% in 2018, 15% in '19, 25% in '20.
所以正如你所看到的,我們基本上必須從 2018 年的 10%、19 年的 15%、20 年的 25% 增長。
We expect obviously to exit 2020 at higher than 25% payments.
我們顯然預計將以高於 25% 的付款退出 2020 年。
That's the average for the year.
那是一年的平均值。
Might be helpful just to understand a little bit about what that's doing to our income statement because there's always some questions about that in prior calls.
了解一下這對我們的損益表有什麼影響可能會有所幫助,因為在之前的電話中總會有一些問題。
In 2020, we expect payments actually to contribute to both revenue growth as it has been, but also to start contributing to EBITDA growth as well with very little impact at all on our EBITDA rate in 2020, will contribute towards EBITDA growth as we recover an ever-increasing percentage of our payment costs.
到 2020 年,我們預計付款實際上既會像過去一樣對收入增長做出貢獻,也會開始對 EBITDA 增長做出貢獻,並且對我們 2020 年的 EBITDA 率幾乎沒有影響,隨著我們恢復我們支付成本的百分比不斷增加。
So that's how to think about payments rolling through our business.
這就是如何考慮通過我們的業務滾動支付。
Obviously, there's still a very attractive nature in our agency model as well so one is not going to completely replace the other.
顯然,我們的代理模式仍然具有非常有吸引力的特性,所以一個不會完全取代另一個。
But as Glenn said, for all sorts of reason, including the ability to participate in merchandising and also to be able to package and control things together via the connected trip, payments will become an ever-increasing part of the business.
但正如 Glenn 所說,由於各種原因,包括參與商品銷售的能力以及能夠通過連接的旅行一起打包和控制事物,支付將成為業務中不斷增長的一部分。
And we're pleased with how it is progressing and we're on track to get it to a stage where it starts to contribute towards EBITDA growth, which we'll start doing this year.
我們對它的進展感到滿意,我們正朝著開始為 EBITDA 增長做出貢獻的階段邁進,我們將在今年開始這樣做。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
And regarding the Grab relationship, I'm very pleased about how that's been progressing.
關於 Grab 的關係,我對它的進展感到非常高興。
And for people to remember, we invested in Grab for 3 reasons.
為了讓人們記住,我們投資 Grab 有 3 個原因。
One reason was Grab has a significant number of customers and we want to find all different ways that we can get exposed our hotel accommodation, all of our travel services to customers in different ways, and that certainly was a great way to do it, one.
一個原因是 Grab 擁有大量客戶,我們希望找到所有不同的方式來展示我們的酒店住宿,我們以不同方式為客戶提供的所有旅行服務,這當然是一個很好的方式,一個.
The other thing is that our travelers when they arrive in a place that they're not familiar with, they want to know how are they going to get around.
另一件事是,當我們的旅行者到達一個他們不熟悉的地方時,他們想知道他們將如何出行。
And many people sometimes mistakenly assume that whatever ridesharing capability they have in their home country is going to be in the place they go visit, and it's not going to be there and not knowing what they're going to do.
許多人有時會錯誤地認為,無論他們在本國擁有的任何拼車功能都會在他們去的地方使用,但它不會在那裡,也不知道他們將要做什麼。
And then they figure out, what am I going to do?
然後他們弄清楚,我要做什麼?
And one of the great things is, we said that we would come up with Grab a way that a person can use the Booking.com app and in a seamless way can get a ridesharing without having to download another app, without having to put a credit card into something that they're not familiar with, and it will be seamless and a great experience.
其中一件很棒的事情是,我們說我們會想出一種方式,讓人們可以使用 Booking.com 應用程序,並以一種無縫的方式獲得拼車服務,而無需下載另一個應用程序,無需安裝信用卡變成他們不熟悉的東西,這將是一種無縫的、很棒的體驗。
And I mentioned last quarter how we've gotten that up and running in Singapore.
我在上個季度提到了我們是如何在新加坡啟動和運行它的。
And the third thing, of course, we said we'd like to have a financial return on the money we invested.
第三件事,當然,我們說我們希望我們投資的錢能得到經濟回報。
One of the things I mentioned last quarter was how, by the end of the year, I expected us to be able to have that Grab app operational on the Booking.com app by the end of the year for Indonesia and Thailand.
我在上個季度提到的一件事是,到今年年底,我希望我們能夠在年底前在印度尼西亞和泰國的 Booking.com 應用程序上運行 Grab 應用程序。
And I'm very pleased that we are now actually operational in every single territory that Grab operates on the iOS platform.
我很高興我們現在可以在 Grab 在 iOS 平台上運營的每一個地區實際運營。
So it's just a great shout-out to the team who's been working on that, and thank you guys for getting that done ahead of schedule and really pushing that through.
所以這只是對一直致力於此的團隊的一個偉大的呼喊,並感謝你們提前完成並真正推動它完成。
We'll be operational for Android, I think, in 2 to 4 weeks, I've been told.
有人告訴我,我認為我們將在 2 到 4 週內開始運行 Android。
And we're talking about, it's now beyond Singapore.
我們正在談論,它現在已經超越了新加坡。
It's Malaysia.
是馬來西亞。
It's Indonesia.
是印度尼西亞。
It's Thailand.
是泰國。
It's Vietnam.
是越南。
It's Cambodia.
是柬埔寨。
It's Philippines.
是菲律賓。
It's Myanmar.
是緬甸。
It's everywhere that Grab is.
Grab 無處不在。
And I tell you, I've seen this used and it really is something that makes it so easy.
我告訴你,我已經看到它被使用了,它確實使它變得如此簡單。
You get off that plane in that airport and you just go to that Booking.com app and right away you can get that car to take you to the hotel.
你在那個機場下飛機,然後打開那個 Booking.com 應用程序,你就可以馬上叫車送你去酒店。
It's a wonderful experience.
這是一次美妙的經歷。
And we're also on the other side being able to show our hotel accommodations to more and more Grab customers, so good in all areas.
另一方面,我們也能夠向越來越多的 Grab 客戶展示我們的酒店住宿,在各個方面都非常出色。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Ju from Crédit Suisse.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Stephen Ju。
Stephen D. Ju - Director
Stephen D. Ju - Director
Okay.
好的。
So Glenn, I guess out of adversity can come opportunities.
所以格倫,我想逆境中可能會有機會。
So in an environment in which folks are going to be really starved for business, are there any silver linings we should be thinking about in terms of Booking becoming a more important partner for your suppliers or being able to onboard more supply for the future?
因此,在人們真正渴望開展業務的環境中,在 Booking 成為供應商更重要的合作夥伴或能夠為未來提供更多供應方面,我們是否應該考慮任何一線希望?
And I guess for the integrated travel experience as well as the rollout of your own payment rails, you are talking about transforming what the Booking.com experience has meant for the consumer for some time now.
我猜想,對於綜合旅行體驗以及您自己的支付渠道的推出,您正在談論改變 Booking.com 體驗對消費者一段時間以來的意義。
So do you feel like you have to retrain them to look for non-hotel products or pay upfront?
那麼,您是否覺得必須重新培訓他們尋找非酒店產品或預先付款?
And do you think you need to incur some cost to bring up that awareness?
你認為你需要付出一些代價來提高這種意識嗎?
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
So nobody, nobody wants their business to succeed because of unfortunate events.
所以沒有人,沒有人希望他們的企業因為不幸事件而成功。
Nobody hopes for that.
沒有人對此抱有希望。
But sometimes the events happen anyway and you do end up being a beneficiary of those events.
但有時事件無論如何都會發生,而你最終會成為這些事件的受益者。
Companies that are stronger when they enter into a bad period emerge even stronger.
在進入困難時期時更強大的公司會變得更強大。
And in this industry, I've seen it happen over and over again.
在這個行業中,我已經看到它一次又一次地發生。
There is no doubt, I've talked in the past about potential recessions and what would happen in a recession and why I believe that would make us more valuable to suppliers so that they would use us more to get demand because they needed it more.
毫無疑問,我過去曾談論過潛在的衰退以及衰退中會發生什麼,以及為什麼我相信這會使我們對供應商更有價值,以便他們更多地利用我們來獲得需求,因為他們更需要它。
And you have pointed out what could be a very unfortunate thing for many players in our industry.
你已經指出了對我們行業的許多參與者來說可能是一件非常不幸的事情。
So yes, silver lining is one way to describe it.
所以是的,一線希望是描述它的一種方式。
I do believe that in the long run we will emerge from this in a much better position, a stronger competitor, and we will end up being better off, though, of course, no one would ever hope for that to happen under that way.
我確實相信,從長遠來看,我們會處於一個更好的位置,成為一個更強大的競爭對手,我們最終會變得更好,當然,沒有人會希望以這種方式發生這種情況。
In regards to the consumer, consumers are amazing how they learn very rapidly how to save money, get value when they see a new app.
對於消費者而言,當他們看到一個新的應用程序時,消費者會非常迅速地學會如何省錢,如何獲得價值,這讓他們感到驚訝。
And it's interesting.
這很有趣。
You don't even see announcements of them in different products many times.
您甚至不會多次在不同的產品中看到它們的公告。
It's just you're playing around with it and you see it.
只是你在玩弄它,你看到了它。
Now we, of course, will be using all sorts of marketing methods to get and make sure our customers are aware of the better way to do your travel planning, your travel execution, but I am not concerned at all that when we have that better product, I am not concerned that people won't know about it.
當然,現在我們將使用各種營銷方法來獲取並確保我們的客戶了解更好的旅行計劃和旅行執行方式,但我一點也不擔心當我們有更好的方法時產品,我不擔心人們不會知道它。
People will know about it.
人們會知道的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Douglas Till Anmuth - MD
Just wanted to ask 2. First, you talked about the 15% of Booking.com bookings using the payments platform.
只想問 2. 首先,您談到了 15% 的 Booking.com 預訂使用支付平台。
Can you just talk a little bit more about what you're seeing in terms of conversion rates and speed to book and then other metrics that you may look at in payments?
你能多談談你在轉化率和預訂速度方面看到的情況,然後是你可能會在付款中看到的其他指標嗎?
And then secondly, Glenn, you mentioned wanting to expose flights ultimately to 50% of your customers.
其次,格倫,你提到希望最終向 50% 的客戶公開航班。
Just curious why that's the number, kind of why you'd stop there?
只是好奇為什麼是這個數字,為什麼你會停在那裡?
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Well, we wouldn't actually stop there.
好吧,我們實際上不會就此止步。
That's just my target for this year.
這只是我今年的目標。
We do intend to have 100% of the people eventually be exposed to it and we want 100% using it.
我們確實打算讓 100% 的人最終接觸到它,並且我們希望 100% 的人使用它。
It takes time because of regulatory licensing things.
由於監管許可的事情,這需要時間。
It's not as though you can just immediately just start selling airline tickets everywhere.
這並不是說您可以立即開始到處銷售機票。
That takes time to get your licenses in certain jurisdictions.
在某些司法管轄區獲得許可證需要時間。
And David?
大衛呢?
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, let me just characterize a little bit of what we're seeing on the payment platform and why we think it's very important, both now and in the future.
是的,讓我稍微描述一下我們在支付平台上看到的內容,以及為什麼我們認為它非常重要,無論是現在還是將來。
So the benefits come in different areas and they're multiple and sometimes they are additive.
所以好處來自不同的領域,它們是多重的,有時它們是累加的。
So in some cases, just offering people payments in different methodologies, payments in currency of their own choice or payment processor of their own choice would be to offer a Chinese customer to pay in Alipay, WeChat Pay or something like that.
因此,在某些情況下,僅僅為人們提供不同的支付方式,以他們自己選擇的貨幣支付或他們自己選擇的支付處理器,就等於讓中國客戶使用支付寶、微信支付或類似的方式進行支付。
Just offering that payment choice, even if the underlying hotel product is the same, we have seen conversion increases, even if people don't use that choice.
只要提供支付選擇,即使基礎酒店產品相同,我們也看到轉化率增加,即使人們不使用該選擇。
It's a bit like offering something in a local language.
這有點像用當地語言提供一些東西。
And of course, we offer our site for local languages.
當然,我們提供本地語言的網站。
The fact you offer something and present it in some of these native language or in this case, you give them a payment choice that they recognize is actually something that by itself will help with conversion, and we can demonstrate that, that does, albeit a small amount if they don't use payments.
事實上,你提供一些東西並用這些母語中的一些來展示它,或者在這種情況下,你給他們一個他們認識到的支付選擇實際上本身會有助於轉換,我們可以證明,那確實,儘管如果他們不使用付款,則金額很小。
And then, of course, if they do use payments, it helps a little bit more.
然後,當然,如果他們確實使用付款,那會更有幫助。
So you do get some conversion benefits, but the other thing the payment platform will let us do as well is we can also, as Glenn mentioned, we can start participating in the pricing process via merchandising more proactively.
所以你確實獲得了一些轉換收益,但支付平台讓我們做的另一件事是我們也可以,正如 Glenn 提到的,我們可以通過商品銷售更主動地參與定價過程。
So we can offer, basically, Booking.com can get involved in that and offer Booking-sponsored benefits or other offers to the customer that you can only really do if you are participating as a merchant and you're taking the payments on behalf of the property and passing it through.
所以我們可以提供,基本上,Booking.com 可以參與其中,並向客戶提供預訂贊助的福利或其他優惠,只有當您作為商家參與並代表財產並通過它。
So the other thing that the payment platform also will do, it will help bridge a gap between a customer and the property in terms of customers can pay in, in their payment platform or their payment currency of choice and we can pay out to the property partner in their payment currency of choice.
因此,支付平台還將做的另一件事是,它將幫助彌合客戶與酒店之間的差距,即客戶可以使用他們的支付平台或他們選擇的支付貨幣進行付款,我們可以向酒店付款合作夥伴選擇他們的支付貨幣。
So for example, again, the hotel in Italy or in Paris may not take all the payment methods that we offer to our Asian customers, and we can give them virtual credit cards in, for example, a Mastercard or a Visa format.
因此,例如,意大利或巴黎的酒店可能不會採用我們為亞洲客戶提供的所有付款方式,我們可以為他們提供虛擬信用卡,例如萬事達卡或維薩卡格式。
So there are all sorts of different benefits from the payments platform.
因此,支付平台有各種不同的好處。
Another one I talked to you about that helps in the business as well is that the agency model, of course, leaves the payment process open to the customer to deal with the property and vice versa.
我和你談過的另一個對業務也有幫助的是代理模式,當然,讓客戶處理財產的付款過程開放,反之亦然。
And we actually get a lot of our customer service request calls are to do with things that go wrong somewhere or were not expected in that equation between the property and the customer where we're not participating because we're just being agents providing the booking.
事實上,我們接到很多客戶服務請求電話都是為了處理某處出錯的事情,或者在我們沒有參與的酒店和客戶之間的等式中沒有預料到的事情,因為我們只是提供預訂的代理.
So we find if we manage the payment process, we can reduce the number of customer service incidents around a payment question and actually increase the overall satisfaction and experience of both the customer and the property partner.
所以我們發現,如果我們管理支付流程,我們可以減少圍繞支付問題的客戶服務事件數量,實際上可以提高客戶和物業合作夥伴的整體滿意度和體驗。
So there are many benefits of the payment platform.
所以支付平台的好處有很多。
As I said, I mentioned a few.
正如我所說,我提到了一些。
In some cases, you get all of them in one transaction.
在某些情況下,您可以在一次交易中獲得所有這些。
In some cases, you only get one, but it's something that we are developing rapidly inside of Booking.com.
在某些情況下,您只能獲得一個,但這是我們在 Booking.com 內部快速開發的東西。
Of course, we got a lot of experience in payments in both Agoda and in Priceline so we're taking leverage of that capability where we've already seen those benefits occur.
當然,我們在 Agoda 和 Priceline 的支付方面都有很多經驗,所以我們正在利用這種能力,我們已經看到了這些好處。
Operator
Operator
Our last question comes from the line of Heath Terry from Goldman Sachs.
我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的希思特里。
Heath Patrick Terry - MD
Heath Patrick Terry - MD
Great.
偉大的。
You called out specifically the January 21 date as the one where you've sort of started to see the headlines for coronavirus.
您特別指出 1 月 21 日是您開始看到冠狀病毒頭條新聞的日期。
Wondering if you could share with us sort of where your expectations were then for bookings growth in the quarter just to get a better sense of sort of where the magnitude of the shift between then and where we are now.
想知道您是否可以與我們分享您當時對本季度預訂量增長的預期,以便更好地了解當時和現在之間的變化幅度。
And then also as we think about sort of where you're seeing the divergence in bookings growth and room night growth continuing and spreading.
然後,當我們考慮某種程度時,您會看到預訂增長和間夜增長的差異在持續和蔓延。
I know in the past, you've talked about, obviously, that being a function of cheaper ADRs.
我知道在過去,你已經談到,很明顯,這是更便宜的 ADR 的一個功能。
Just wondering if maybe you could get a little bit more into detail with us on that as far as how much of that is geographic, how much of that is, you believe, customers continuing to downshift to cheaper rooms and how much of it might be an access to inventory issue as hotels look to retain more of their compression nights for their own platform.
只是想知道您是否可以與我們更詳細地了解其中有多少是地理因素,其中有多少,您認為,客戶繼續轉向更便宜的房間,以及其中有多少可能是由於酒店希望為自己的平台保留更多的壓縮住宿,因此無法訪問庫存問題。
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO
Sure.
當然。
Let me take those in reverse order.
讓我把它們倒過來。
So the ADR question, probably the best place to go is back to Q4 because we were operating, obviously, in a business as usual type environment.
所以 ADR 問題,可能最好的去處是回到第四季度,因為我們顯然在照常營業的環境中運營。
And without going through a long explanation because we gave a fairly long explanation to what's happening to ADRs and why we saw that ADR reduction in the fourth quarter, bear in mind, part of it is because we were lapping a rather unusual increase a year ago, so the 4 really became a 3, if you normalize that.
並且沒有經過很長的解釋,因為我們對 ADR 發生了什麼以及為什麼我們在第四季度看到 ADR 減少給出了相當長的解釋,請記住,部分原因是我們在一年前取得了相當不尋常的增長,所以 4 真的變成了 3,如果你把它歸一化的話。
And then we saw basically half of that decline due to lower rates in the key countries, which were like U.S., Japan, Hong Kong.
然後,由於美國、日本、香港等主要國家/地區的利率較低,我們看到基本上下降了一半。
Of course, again, on a pre-virus model and some of that was macro.
當然,再一次,在病毒前模型上,其中一些是宏觀的。
About half of the decline in ADRs was due to a shift towards lower ADR countries.
大約一半的 ADR 下降是由於轉向較低的 ADR 國家。
Again, some of that was also macro because some of the higher ADR countries got very expensive from an FX point of view.
同樣,其中一些也是宏觀的,因為從外彙的角度來看,一些 ADR 較高的國家變得非常昂貴。
So when we go back and look at Q4 and look at Q3, we saw basically 2 points of normalized reduction in ADRs in Q3 and 3 points in Q4.
因此,當我們回頭看看第四季度和第三季度時,我們看到第三季度 ADR 標準化減少了 2 個百分點,第四季度減少了 3 個百分點。
We believe about half of that was kind of macro and half of that was mix-related going forward.
我們認為其中大約一半是宏觀因素,其中一半與未來的混合相關。
So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of flavor as to kind of what's going on.
所以希望這能讓你對正在發生的事情有一些了解。
Going into 2020, we expected the ADR reductions to be down to a couple of points, again, on a pre-coronavirus basis basically, just assuming that the macro piece of that continued with a little bit more in the first half and a little bit less in the second half due to lapping effects of what we saw occurring last year.
進入 2020 年,我們預計 ADR 的下降幅度將再次下降到幾個點,基本上是在冠狀病毒爆發前的基礎上,只是假設宏觀部分在上半年繼續下降一點點由於我們去年看到的重疊效應,下半年減少了。
And just to go back to your very first part of the question.
回到問題的第一部分。
Just like we try not to give specific guidance for where we were for the year pre the coronavirus, and we did give you, I think, a fairly good flavor as to how we thought the business would operate during the year pre the coronavirus, we try not to get into a lot of bridging exercises between where we were Q1 before and afterwards.
就像我們盡量不對我們在冠狀病毒爆發前一年的情況給出具體指導一樣,我認為我們確實給了你一個相當好的信息,關於我們認為企業在冠狀病毒爆發前一年將如何運作,我們盡量不要在我們之前和之後的 Q1 之間進行很多銜接練習。
For what it's worth, I can tell you that we were tracking nicely ahead of our internal expectations for the first 3 weeks in January, but that's only a 3-week period of time.
對於它的價值,我可以告訴你,我們在 1 月份的前 3 週很好地超出了我們的內部預期,但這只是 3 週的時間。
So take it for what it's worth, but we were running slightly in front of the expectation we had for the year, which I outlined relative to when we talked about 2019 and where we expected things to continue into 2020.
因此,請按它的價值來看待它,但我們略微超出了我們今年的預期,我在談到 2019 年時概述了這一點,以及我們預計事情會持續到 2020 年。
I don't want to get into a specific, we thought room night growth would be X and now it's Y because we can never really compare against that hypothetical growth.
我不想具體說明,我們認為間夜增長會是 X,現在是 Y,因為我們永遠無法真正與假設的增長進行比較。
We were comfortable with where the year was shaping up.
我們對這一年的發展感到滿意。
We felt good about the profile of business we talked about in 2020 relative to what we saw in 2019 and the business model continuing.
相對於我們在 2019 年所看到的以及業務模式的延續,我們對我們在 2020 年談論的業務概況感到滿意。
And hopefully, that gives you a flavor you can have, really come to your own conclusion as to what it was.
希望這能給你一種你可以擁有的味道,真正得出你自己的結論。
But we're pleased with how things were shaping up going into '20 and the shape of '20 as we looked at the full year.
但我們對進入 20 年代的情況以及 20 年全年的情況感到滿意。
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director
So this concludes the remarks.
發言到此結束。
And I just want to end by saying in summary, our 2019 performance met some important financial and strategic goals.
最後,我只想總結一下,我們 2019 年的業績實現了一些重要的財務和戰略目標。
And I'm very pleased about the steps we have taken to date to provide more value to the customers and our supply partners, and we look forward to doing more so in the future.
我對我們迄今為止為向客戶和我們的供應合作夥伴提供更多價值所採取的措施感到非常高興,我們期待在未來做更多的事情。
And we're going to manage through the current travel environment, and I am very confident in our long-term prospects.
我們將應對當前的旅行環境,我對我們的長期前景充滿信心。
And finally, I want to thank our supplier and marketing partners, our more than 26,000 employees distributed across more than 300 offices and a very special thank you to a subset of those 26,000 who over the last couple of months had been working so hard in this environment.
最後,我要感謝我們的供應商和營銷合作夥伴,我們分佈在 300 多個辦事處的 26,000 多名員工,並特別感謝過去幾個月在這方面辛勤工作的 26,000 名員工中的一部分環境。
I want to thank them very much.
我非常感謝他們。
And most of all, I want to thank our traveler customers who are out there exploring the world.
最重要的是,我要感謝探索世界的旅行者客戶。
Good night.
晚安。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.
女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
Thank you for participating.
感謝您的參與。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連接。