Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Booking Holdings' Third Quarter 2018 Conference Call.

歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 2018 年第三季度電話會議。

Booking Holdings would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Booking Holdings 提醒大家，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款作出的。

These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

這些前瞻性陳述不是對未來業績的保證，並受某些難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。

Therefore, actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements.

因此，實際結果可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中明示、暗示或預測的結果存在重大差異。

Expressions of future goals or expectations and similar expressions reflecting something other than historical fact are intended to identify forward-looking statements.

未來目標或期望的表達以及反映歷史事實以外的事物的類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。

For a list of factors that could cause Booking Holdings' actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the safe harbor statement at the end of Booking Holdings' earnings press release as well as Booking Holdings' most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致 Booking Holdings 的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異的因素列表，請參閱 Booking Holdings 收益新聞稿末尾的安全港聲明以及 Booking Holdings 最最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Unless required by law, Booking Holdings undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

除非法律要求，否則 Booking Holdings 沒有義務公開更新任何前瞻性陳述，無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。

A copy of Booking Holdings' earnings press release, together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement, is available in the For Investors section of Booking Holdings' website, www.bookingholdings.com.

Booking Holdings 的收益新聞稿副本以及隨附的財務和統計補充資料可在 Booking Holdings 網站 www.bookingholdings.com 的投資者部分獲取。

And now I'd like to introduce Booking Holdings speakers for this afternoon, Glenn Fogel and David Goulden.

現在我想介紹一下今天下午 Booking Holdings 的發言人，Glenn Fogel 和 David Goulden。

Go ahead, gentlemen.

來吧，先生們。

Thank you, and welcome to Booking Holdings' fourth quarter conference call.

謝謝，歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 的第四季度電話會議。

I'm joined this afternoon by our CFO, David Goulden.

今天下午，我們的首席財務官戴維·古爾登 (David Goulden) 加入了我的行列。

We had a strong quarter with 171 million worldwide room nights booked, which is up 13% year-over-year and exceeded the high end of our guidance range.

我們有一個強勁的季度，全球預訂間夜數達到 1.71 億，同比增長 13%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

Our revenue increased 16% year-over-year in U.S. dollars or about 21% on a constant currency basis.

我們的收入以美元計算同比增長 16%，按固定匯率計算增長約 21%。

Adjusted EBITDA grew 17% in U.S. dollars and the FX impact was a couple of points higher than it was on revenue.

調整後的 EBITDA 以美元計算增長了 17%，外匯影響比收入高出幾個百分點。

Our non-GAAP EPS was up 33% year-over-year.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益同比增長 33%。

When I look back at 2018, I am pleased with the financial performance of the company.

回顧 2018 年，我對公司的財務表現感到滿意。

Our total booked room nights exceeded 0.75 billion room nights, and we produced strong year-over-year growth across our key financial metrics.

我們的總預訂間夜數超過 7.5 億間夜，我們的主要財務指標實現了強勁的同比增長。

Revenue was up 17%, adjusted EBITDA was up 18% and non-GAAP EPS was up 20%.

收入增長 17%，調整後的 EBITDA 增長 18%，非 GAAP 每股收益增長 20%。

We not only drove solid top line growth, increasing our share in the accommodation market, but also stabilized our operating margins through our performance marketing optimization strategy, which we began in the third quarter of 2017.

我們不僅推動了穩定的收入增長，增加了我們在住宿市場的份額，而且還通過我們於 2017 年第三季度開始的績效營銷優化戰略穩定了我們的營業利潤率。

In 2018, we invested in 3 main areas that we believe can drive the long-term growth of the business, and we'll continue to develop these in 2019.

2018 年，我們投資了 3 個我們認為可以推動業務長期增長的主要領域，我們將在 2019 年繼續發展這些領域。

First, in alternative accommodations, we continue to add to our supply base.

首先，在替代住宿方面，我們繼續增加我們的供應基礎。

And as of December 31, Booking.com had over 5.7 million reported listings.

截至 12 月 31 日，Booking.com 的房源數量已超過 570 萬。

However, we are not just focused on the total number of alternative accommodation listings, but are also concentrating on the quality and type of properties joining our platform so we can provide the best choices for our customers and drive search conversion.

然而，我們不僅關注可供選擇的住宿清單的總數，還關注加入我們平台的物業的質量和類型，以便我們能夠為客戶提供最佳選擇並推動搜索轉化。

Booking.com's alternative accommodation business has meaningful size and scale and recorded approximately $2.8 billion in revenue in 2018, representing approximately 20% of our overall revenue for the year.

Booking.com 的另類住宿業務規模龐大，2018 年收入約為 28 億美元，約占我們全年總收入的 20%。

It also reached the important milestone of over $1 billion in revenues in Q3 2018.

它還在 2018 年第三季度達到了收入超過 10 億美元的重要里程碑。

It is also growing faster than our consolidated growth rate and is nicely profitable.

它的增長速度也快於我們的綜合增長率，而且利潤豐厚。

We believe offering real choice with both alternative accommodations and traditional properties on one platform is the best customer proposition.

我們相信，在一個平台上提供替代住宿和傳統住宿的真正選擇是最好的客戶主張。

We believe a telling data point underscoring the attractiveness of our model is approximately 40% of Booking.com's active customers booked in alternative accommodation property at some point during the past 12 months.

我們認為，在過去 12 個月的某個時間點，約有 40% 的 Booking.com 活躍客戶預訂了替代住宿物業，這是一個突出我們模型吸引力的有說服力的數據點。

Second, we invested in 2018.

第二，我們在2018年進行了投資。

And in 2019, we'll step up our investment in the growth of our business through branding and customer acquisition programs in order to take share in the markets with the highest long-term potential returns.

2019 年，我們將通過品牌推廣和客戶獲取計劃加大對業務增長的投資，以在長期潛在回報最高的市場中佔據一席之地。

We believe these incremental investments will help drive greater loyalty and higher repeat rates to our direct channel over time.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，這些增量投資將有助於提高我們直接渠道的忠誠度和重複率。

Just 2 days ago, we launched our new U.S. brand campaign, which we expect will drive further awareness in this important growth market.

就在 2 天前，我們推出了新的美國品牌活動，我們預計這將進一步提高這一重要增長市場的知名度。

We will also look to improve brand awareness across our primary markets through increased brand campaigns in both offline and online channels.

我們還將尋求通過增加線下和線上渠道的品牌活動來提高我們主要市場的品牌知名度。

These marketing programs are taking on a greater importance as many of our performance marketing partners are experiencing slower customer growth.

隨著我們的許多績效營銷合作夥伴的客戶增長放緩，這些營銷計劃變得越來越重要。

Third, we will continue to invest in the rollout of Booking.com's payment platform.

第三，我們將繼續投資於 Booking.com 支付平台的推出。

This platform provides payment options favored by customers and property partners, particularly non-hotel property partners and provides a platform for merchant product offerings.

該平台提供客戶和物業合作夥伴（尤其是非酒店物業合作夥伴）青睞的支付選項，並為商家產品提供平台。

Merchant offerings provide greater merchandising possibilities for Booking.com.

商戶產品為 Booking.com 提供了更大的銷售可能性。

And this year, we plan to step up our investment in this capability to drive growth.

今年，我們計劃加大對這一能力的投資以推動增長。

This payment platform will also facilitate our transport and local attractions business, where we envision a frictionless customer experience that we believe will drive enhanced loyalty.

這個支付平台還將促進我們的交通和當地景點業務，我們設想在這些業務中提供無摩擦的客戶體驗，我們相信這將提高忠誠度。

For example, we look to build upon the integration of Rentalcars.com and Booking.com to deliver a better ground transport offering for Booking.com's customers this year.

例如，我們希望在今年整合 Rentalcars.com 和 Booking.com 的基礎上為 Booking.com 的客戶提供更好的地面交通服務。

The number of car rentals and rides booked on the Booking.com platform grew rapidly this past year, contributing to our belief that an integrated offering is highly valued by our customers.

過去一年，在 Booking.com 平台上預訂的汽車租賃和乘車服務數量增長迅速，這讓我們更加相信綜合服務受到客戶的高度重視。

China and the broader APAC region remains an important geographic focus for us, and we invested significantly against this very large opportunity in 2018.

中國和更廣泛的亞太地區仍然是我們的重要地理焦點，我們在 2018 年針對這個非常大的機會進行了大量投資。

As a result of smart growth investments, Agoda produced very solid growth rates in the region despite a very competitive marketplace.

由於明智的增長投資，儘管市場競爭激烈，Agoda 在該地區仍實現了非常穩健的增長率。

We continue to work with our partners, Ctrip and Meituan, and we introduced new strategic and financial relationships with Didi and Grab, all of which, we believe, will help both Booking.com and Agoda build better brand awareness and acquire customers more effectively in this region.

我們繼續與我們的合作夥伴攜程和美團合作，並與滴滴和 Grab 建立了新的戰略和財務關係，我們相信所有這些都將有助於 Booking.com 和 Agoda 建立更好的品牌知名度並更有效地獲得客戶這個地區。

KAYAK completed a busy year with the integration of Momondo and the acquisition of HotelsCombined in December.

KAYAK 在 12 月完成了對 Momondo 的整合和對 HotelsCombined 的收購，度過了忙碌的一年。

Both acquisitions bring greater geographic diversity and product strength to the KAYAK platform as it continues to build a global multiproduct, multi-brand travel search platform.

這兩項收購為 KAYAK 平台帶來了更大的地域多樣性和產品實力，因為它繼續打造一個全球多產品、多品牌的旅遊搜索平台。

We also announced the combined reporting structures of KAYAK and OpenTable during 2018 to further drive experimentation and innovation across both platforms.

我們還在 2018 年宣布了 KAYAK 和 OpenTable 的合併報告結構，以進一步推動兩個平台的實驗和創新。

We're already seeing early signs of this with OpenTable recently announcing that its customers can use OpenTable dining points to book discounted hotel stays, and I look forward to seeing further innovation from the combined teams.

我們已經看到這方面的早期跡象，OpenTable 最近宣布其客戶可以使用 OpenTable 餐飲點來預訂打折酒店住宿，我期待看到合併後團隊的進一步創新。

Priceline.com is increasing its momentum, and we're starting to see the benefits of our investments on this platform.

Priceline.com 的勢頭越來越大，我們開始看到我們在這個平台上的投資所帶來的好處。

The redesigned packaged product is growing very rapidly, gaining acceptance in the U.S. market.

重新設計的包裝產品增長非常迅速，獲得了美國市場的認可。

We're excited about the potential of this product for the entire company.

我們對這款產品對整個公司的潛力感到興奮。

Finally, as you can see from our Q1 guidance, we witnessed a slow start to the year, primarily in our core European markets, which we believe is largely due to overall macroeconomic factors.

最後，正如您從我們的第一季度指引中看到的那樣，我們見證了今年開局緩慢，主要是在我們的核心歐洲市場，我們認為這主要是由於整體宏觀經濟因素。

The initiatives outlined above are aimed at driving long term top line growth and share gains and will help support the business if macro conditions soften.

上述舉措旨在推動長期收入增長和份額增長，並將在宏觀環境疲軟時幫助支持業務。

We believe these steps strike the right balance between driving growth and operating margins.

我們相信這些步驟在推動增長和營業利潤率之間取得了適當的平衡。

Furthermore, we believe our financial scale and global diversified platform positions us to perform well through macroeconomic challenges.

此外，我們相信我們的財務規模和全球多元化平台使我們能夠在宏觀經濟挑戰中表現出色。

In conclusion, we had a very good year in 2018 and believe we have a great long-term opportunity ahead of us.

總之，我們在 2018 年度過了非常美好的一年，並且相信我們面前有一個巨大的長期機會。

We will always manage our business with a long-term view and will continue to invest in growth this year with the goal of increasing our share across our primary markets.

我們將始終以長遠眼光管理我們的業務，並將在今年繼續投資於增長，目標是增加我們在主要市場的份額。

With that, I will now turn it over to our CFO, David Goulden, for the financial review.

有了這個，我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 David Goulden 進行財務審查。

Thank you, Glenn, and good afternoon.

謝謝你，格倫，下午好。

I will discuss our operating results for the fourth quarter and for 2018, and then provide thoughts on the full year 2019 as well as our guidance for the first quarter.

我將討論我們第四季度和 2018 年的經營業績，然後提供對 2019 年全年的想法以及我們對第一季度的指導。

All growth rates are relative to prior year comparable period unless otherwise indicated.

除非另有說明，否則所有增長率均與上年同期相比。

All year-over-year growth rates referenced in my remarks will compare the current year income statement under the new revenue accounting standard to the prior year under the previous accounting standard.

我的評論中提到的所有同比增長率都將新收入會計準則下的本年度損益表與舊會計準則下的上一年進行比較。

Gross bookings and other metrics like room night reservations are not impacted by the new revenue accounting standard.

新的收入會計準則不會影響總預訂量和其他指標（如客房預訂量）。

Our non-GAAP financial results and forecast include stock-based compensation and information regarding reconciliation to GAAP can be found in our earnings release.

我們的非 GAAP 財務業績和預測包括基於股票的薪酬，有關與 GAAP 對賬的信息可在我們的收益發布中找到。

Now on to our results for the quarter.

現在談談我們本季度的業績。

Our booked room night growth of 13% for the quarter exceeded the high end of our guidance range.

我們本季度的預訂間夜增長率為 13%，超出了我們指導範圍的上限。

In the quarter, we observed a moderate step-down in growth rates from October levels.

在本季度，我們觀察到增長率較 10 月份的水平略有下降。

Average daily rates for accommodations or ADRs were up about 1% in Q4 relative to the prior year on a constant currency basis versus our forecast for about 2% ADR growth in the quarter.

按固定匯率計算，第四季度住宿或 ADR 的平均每日房價較上年同期上漲約 1%，而我們預測本季度的 ADR 增長率約為 2%。

Changes in foreign exchange rates reduced Q4 growth rates in U.S. dollars by approximately 4 percentage points versus last year.

外匯匯率的變化使以美元計算的第四季度增長率與去年相比下降了約 4 個百分點。

We estimate the changes in FX rates impacted Q4 gross bookings and revenue growth rates by a similar amount and the Q4 EBITDA growth rate by a couple of points more.

我們估計匯率的變化對第四季度總預訂量和收入增長率的影響相似，對第四季度 EBITDA 增長率的影響要大幾個點。

Q4 gross bookings grew by 9% expressed in U.S. dollars and grew by about 13% on a constant currency basis, coming in at the high end of our guidance range.

以美元計算，第四季度總預訂量增長了 9%，按固定匯率計算增長了約 13%，處於我們指導範圍的高端。

Consolidated revenue for the fourth quarter was $3.2 billion and grew by 16% in U.S. dollars and by about 21% on a constant currency basis, coming in above the high end of our guidance range.

第四季度的綜合收入為 32 億美元，以美元計算增長 16%，按固定匯率計算增長約 21%，高於我們指導範圍的高端。

Advertising and other revenue, which is mainly comprised of non-intercompany revenues for KAYAK and OpenTable, grew by 14% in Q4 compared to the prior year.

廣告和其他收入（主要包括 KAYAK 和 OpenTable 的非公司間收入）在第四季度比去年同期增長了 14%。

Total revenue for the fourth quarter 2018 under the current revenue standard was approximately 5% higher than it would have been if reported under the previous revenue standard.

根據現行收入標準，2018 年第四季度的總收入比按照之前的收入標準報告時高出約 5%。

As a result, our revenue, adjusted EBITDA and net income growth rate versus the prior year were positively impacted in the quarter.

因此，我們的收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和淨收入增長率與上一年相比在本季度受到了積極影響。

In addition, expenses as a percentage of revenue as well as margins were impacted from the higher revenue when comparing to the prior year Q4.

此外，與去年第 4 季度相比，較高的收入影響了費用佔收入的百分比以及利潤率。

So to help you understand the underlying drivers of leverage and deleverage in the business in Q4, I'll talk about these on a like-for-like revenue basis to eliminate the impact of the Q4 benefit from the revenue accounting change.

因此，為了幫助您了解第四季度業務槓桿和去槓桿化的潛在驅動因素，我將在類似收入的基礎上討論這些，以消除收入會計變化對第四季度收益的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was $1.26 billion, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range and was up 17% year-over-year on a reported basis and up about 4% on a like-for-like basis.

第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 12.6 億美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，並且在報告的基礎上同比增長 17%，同比增長約 4%。

As I mentioned previously, our growth rates were negatively impacted from year-on-year changes in FX rates.

正如我之前提到的，我們的增長率受到匯率同比變化的負面影響。

Our Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin of 36% under the previous revenue accounting standard was above our forecast largely due to some leverage in performance marketing.

根據之前的收入會計標準，我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 36%，高於我們的預期，這主要是由於績效營銷中的一些槓桿作用。

We fully lapped our strategy to optimize performance marketing ROIs, which we began in mid-Q3 2017.

我們從 2017 年第三季度中期開始全面實施優化績效營銷投資回報率的戰略。

We remain disciplined in our spending, and we were encouraged to see a modest leverage of 20 basis points from our performance marketing in the quarter, which was better than the deleverage we anticipated.

我們在支出方面保持紀律，我們很高興地看到本季度我們的績效營銷產生了 20 個基點的適度槓桿，這好於我們預期的去槓桿化。

We continue to see these channels as an effective way to acquire customers, and we'll continue to invest rationally to optimize growth.

我們繼續將這些渠道視為獲取客戶的有效方式，我們將繼續合理投資以優化增長。

As part of our continued effort to drive more traffic to our websites, we increased our spending on brand marketing in the quarter by 27% versus Q4 last year, which contributed about 50 basis points of deleverage.

作為我們不斷努力為我們的網站帶來更多流量的一部分，我們在本季度的品牌營銷支出比去年第四季度增加了 27%，這貢獻了約 50 個基點的去槓桿化。

Sales and other expense continue to grow faster than revenue primarily due to the growth of our payments platform at Booking.com.

銷售額和其他費用的增長繼續快於收入增長，這主要是由於我們在 Booking.com 支付平台的增長。

Finally, personnel expense came in lower than our forecast and contributed a small amount of leverage in the quarter.

最後，人事費用低於我們的預期，並在本季度貢獻了少量槓桿作用。

Our non-GAAP EPS was $22.49, up 33% versus the prior year.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益為 22.49 美元，比上年增長 33%。

Non-GAAP net income reflects a non-GAAP tax rate of 11.3% in Q4, which decreased from the prior year primarily due to a tax benefit resulting from the application of regulatory guidance issued in November that clarifies a provision of the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

非 GAAP 淨收入反映了第 4 季度 11.3% 的非 GAAP 稅率，較上年有所下降，這主要是由於應用 11 月發布的監管指南所帶來的稅收優惠，該指南闡明了美國減稅和就業法。

Our full year non-GAAP tax rate was 18.3%.

我們的全年非 GAAP 稅率為 18.3%。

Our 6% lower share count in Q4 versus last year further benefited EPS growth in the quarter.

我們在第四季度的股票數量比去年減少了 6%，這進一步有利於本季度每股收益的增長。

On a GAAP basis, operating income grew by 16% and GAAP operating margin decreased by 13 basis points compared to Q4 last year.

根據美國通用會計準則，與去年第四季度相比，營業收入增長了 16%，美國通用會計準則營業利潤率下降了 13 個基點。

GAAP operating income is negatively impacted by $21 million pretax related to travel transaction tax charged from prior periods that are recorded in the G&A expense line.

GAAP 營業收入受到 2100 萬美元稅前的負面影響，該稅前費用記錄在 G&A 費用項目中，與前期收取的旅遊交易稅相關。

Q4 GAAP net income amounted to $646 million or $13.86 per share, up significantly from the $11.41 loss in Q4 2017, which was negatively impacted by last year's $1.3 billion provisional net income tax expense related to the Tax Act.

第 4 季度 GAAP 淨收入為 6.46 億美元或每股 13.86 美元，遠高於 2017 年第 4 季度的 11.41 美元虧損，這是受到去年與稅法相關的 13 億美元臨時淨所得稅支出的負面影響。

Our Q4 GAAP net income includes a $474 million pretax loss related to unrealized losses on equity investments in Meituan and Ctrip.

我們第四季度的 GAAP 淨收入包括與美團和攜程的股權投資未實現虧損相關的 4.74 億美元稅前虧損。

Q4 GAAP net income was also negatively impacted by the travel transaction charge that I just mentioned.

第 4 季度 GAAP 淨收入也受到我剛才提到的旅行交易費用的負面影響。

We excluded the unrealized loss and the travel transaction charge from our non-GAAP results.

我們從我們的非 GAAP 結果中排除了未實現的損失和旅行交易費用。

We had a GAAP tax rate of negative 2% for the quarter, which was primarily driven by the reversal of the tax charge related to a provision of the Tax Act that I mentioned previously as well as a separate $48 million tax benefit related to the finalization of the onetime expense we incurred in Q4 2017 due to the Tax Act.

我們本季度的 GAAP 稅率為負 2%，這主要是由於與我之前提到的稅法條款相關的稅收逆轉以及與最終確定相關的單獨 4800 萬美元的稅收優惠所致由於稅法，我們在 2017 年第四季度產生的一次性費用。

Our cash and investments amounted to $14.7 billion at quarter end.

截至季度末，我們的現金和投資總計 147 億美元。

For the full year 2018, we generated $5.3 billion of operating cash flow, which increased by 15% compared to prior year.

2018 年全年，我們產生了 53 億美元的經營現金流，比上年增長 15%。

Our free cash flow for the year was $4.9 billion, which increased by 12% compared to the prior year.

我們當年的自由現金流為 49 億美元，比上年增長 12%。

We returned about $1.8 billion during the fourth quarter to our shareholders through share buybacks.

我們在第四季度通過股票回購向股東返還了約 18 億美元。

Since the start of 2018, we reduced our fully diluted share count by approximately 6% through our $6 billion in repurchases for the full year.

自 2018 年初以來，我們通過全年 60 億美元的回購將完全稀釋後的股份數量減少了約 6%。

As of December 31, we had approximately $4.5 billion remaining of our share repurchase authorization.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的股票回購授權剩餘約 45 億美元。

We will continue to be both programmatic and opportunistic with regard to our repurchases and now we expect to complete this authorization before the end of 2019.

在我們的回購方面，我們將繼續既是程序化的又是機會主義的，現在我們希望在 2019 年底之前完成這項授權。

Looking back at 2018, we are pleased with our strong performance during the year as we delivered room night growth of 13%, revenue growth of 17%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 18% and non-GAAP EPS growth of 20%.

回顧 2018 年，我們對這一年的強勁表現感到滿意，我們實現了 13% 的間夜增長、17% 的收入增長、18% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長和 20% 的非 GAAP 每股收益增長。

We exited the year in a stronger position and achieved many of our objectives.

我們以更強大的地位結束了這一年，並實現了我們的許多目標。

We grew our direct channel, which now represents over 50% of our booked room nights.

我們發展了直接渠道，現在占我們預訂間夜數的 50% 以上。

Our mobile platform is strong, with over half of our room nights booked on a mobile device.

我們的移動平台非常強大，超過一半的間夜是通過移動設備預訂的。

And finally, as Glenn noted, in 2018, approximately 20% of our revenue and a higher percentage of our room nights were generated by our alternative accommodations business.

最後，正如 Glenn 指出的那樣，在 2018 年，我們的替代住宿業務產生了我們約 20% 的收入和更高比例的間夜。

Each of direct, mobile and alternative is growing faster than our overall growth rate.

直銷、移動和替代品的增長速度都快於我們的整體增長率。

Now turning to 2019.

現在轉向 2019 年。

I want to start by talking about some factors that will impact the year and then come back to our guidance for Q1.

我想首先談談將影響今年的一些因素，然後回到我們對第一季度的指導。

There are 4 main factors that we believe will impact the shape of 2019: the first is our growth investments; the second is the continued rollout and adoption of our new payments platform at Booking.com; the third is some mechanical timing and comparison factors; and the fourth is the macroeconomic environment.

我們認為有 4 個主要因素將影響 2019 年的形態：首先是我們的增長投資；第二個是在 Booking.com 上繼續推出和採用我們的新支付平台；三是一些機械計時和比較因素；四是宏觀經濟環境。

Now let's look at each of these in turn, starting with our growth investments.

現在讓我們依次看看這些，從我們的增長投資開始。

As Glenn talked about, in 2019, we're investing for growth, customer acquisition and loyalty in a number of key areas.

正如 Glenn 所說，在 2019 年，我們將在多個關鍵領域投資於增長、客戶獲取和忠誠度。

These growth investments are a step-up in spend from normal levels.

這些增長投資是在正常水平基礎上的支出增長。

You will see them impact our financials in brand, in revenue via merchandising as well as customer acquisition and incentive programs, and you'll also see them in personnel to support these initiatives.

你會看到他們影響我們的品牌財務、銷售收入以及客戶獲取和激勵計劃，你還會看到他們在人員方面支持這些計劃。

We expect there will be some in-year revenue return, but after taking this into account, these growth investments will reduce our EBITDA growth rate by a few percentage points in 2019.

我們預計年內會有一些收入回報，但考慮到這一點後，這些增長投資將使我們 2019 年的 EBITDA 增長率降低幾個百分點。

These investments start at the beginning of this year.

這些投資從今年年初開始。

We expect the returns are higher in the second half of the year so there'll be a greater negative impact on EBITDA growth during the first half.

我們預計下半年的回報率會更高，因此上半年的 EBITDA 增長將受到更大的負面影響。

This means that our consolidated EBITDA growth will be higher in the second half.

這意味著我們下半年的綜合 EBITDA 增長將更高。

Now moving to payments at Booking.com.

現在轉向在 Booking.com 上付款。

In 2018, approximately 10% of the gross bookings of Booking.com was processed via our payments platform, and we expect this to continue to increase.

2018 年，Booking.com 約 10% 的總預訂是通過我們的支付平台處理的，我們預計這一比例將繼續增加。

In 2018, payments put pressure on EBITDA in the form of higher sales and other expenses that were not fully offset by associated revenue.

2018 年，付款以更高的銷售額和其他費用的形式給 EBITDA 帶來壓力，這些費用沒有被相關收入完全抵消。

This reduced our consolidated EBITDA growth rate in 2018 by a little over 1%.

這使我們 2018 年的綜合 EBITDA 增長率降低了 1% 多一點。

Going forward, we do not expect any additional reduction in EBITDA growth from payments and will continue to see increases in revenue.

展望未來，我們預計 EBITDA 增長不會因支付而進一步減少，收入將繼續增加。

This will pressure margin rates modestly.

這將適度壓低保證金率。

We also see the opportunity for payments to drive EBITDA growth in the future.

我們還看到了支付在未來推動 EBITDA 增長的機會。

Of course, payments provides important advantages in many areas, including merchandising flexibility, a better customer and partner experience, reduced customer service expenses and the ability to coordinate and manage integrated trips.

當然，支付在許多領域提供了重要的優勢，包括銷售靈活性、更好的客戶和合作夥伴體驗、減少的客戶服務費用以及協調和管理綜合旅行的能力。

The third set of factors are more mechanical but important as you think about the year.

第三組因素更機械，但在您考慮這一年時很重要。

FX is expected to be quite significant this year.

外匯預計今年將相當重要。

Using current FX rates assumed in our guidance, gross booking growth and revenue growth through to non-GAAP EPS growth will be reduced by approximately 250 basis points for the full year and 500 basis points for the first half of the year.

使用我們指南中假定的當前匯率，全年總預訂量增長和收入增長以及非 GAAP 每股收益增長將減少約 250 個基點，上半年將減少約 500 個基點。

Additionally, the timing of Easter will impact revenue growth in Q1 and Q2.

此外，復活節的時間將影響第一季度和第二季度的收入增長。

Last year, Easter was on April 1. And therefore, the majority of Easter revenue was recorded in the first quarter.

去年的複活節是在 4 月 1 日。因此，復活節的大部分收入都記錄在第一季度。

This year, with Easter on April 21, Easter travel revenue will be recorded in Q2.

今年4月21日是複活節，復活節旅遊收入將在Q2錄得。

Compared with Easter falling on the same day as last year, we estimate that about $65 million of revenue will move into Q2.

與去年復活節同一天相比，我們估計約有 6500 萬美元的收入將進入第二季度。

We estimate the shift in timing will reduce Q1 2019 revenue growth rate by approximately 200 basis points and increase Q2 2019 revenue growth rate by approximately 200 basis points.

我們估計時間的轉變將使 2019 年第一季度的收入增長率降低約 200 個基點，並將 2019 年第二季度的收入增長率提高約 200 個基點。

The fourth factor is the external macro environment.

第四個因素是外部宏觀環境。

We continue to expect travel to grow faster than GDP on a global as well as on a region by region basis.

我們繼續預計，無論是在全球範圍內，還是在各個地區的基礎上，旅遊業的增長速度都將快於 GDP。

Of course, this means that the growth of travel on a regional basis will be impacted by regional GDP and sentiment.

當然，這意味著區域基礎上的旅行增長將受到區域 GDP 和情緒的影響。

Consistent with recent economic indicators, we saw a slow start to the year in Europe, and this is impacting our room night growth guidance for Q1.

與最近的經濟指標一致，我們看到歐洲今年開局緩慢，這影響了我們對第一季度間夜量增長的預期。

To provide a little bit more insight, January room night growth in Europe was a step-down from December and February is looking stronger than January but still below December.

為了提供更多洞察力，歐洲 1 月份間夜量增長較 12 月份有所下降，2 月份看起來強於 1 月份，但仍低於 12 月份。

We expect to continue to gain share in accommodations in Europe, especially with our investments.

我們希望繼續獲得歐洲住宿市場的份額，尤其是通過我們的投資。

Room night growth rates in the other parts of the world are more in line with what we saw in December.

世界其他地區的間夜增長率更符合我們在 12 月份看到的情況。

We think that walking you through these factors will be helpful as we describe and you build your models for the year.

我們認為，如我們所描述的那樣，帶您了解這些因素將對您建立當年的模型有所幫助。

We also think that sharing some expectations for the full year taking these factors into account will be helpful as well.

我們還認為，考慮到這些因素，分享對全年的一些預期也會有所幫助。

For 2019, we expect to gain share in accommodations in each major geographic region, and we are confident that the strength of our business, reinforced by the growth investments we are making this year will enable us to achieve this.

2019 年，我們預計在每個主要地理區域的住宿市場份額都會增加，而且我們相信，我們的業務實力，加上我們今年進行的增長投資，將使我們能夠實現這一目標。

We will manage the balance between growth and profitability with an expectation that non-GAAP EPS on a constant currency basis will grow in the low double digits in 2019 after factoring in the impact from the growth investments I previously mentioned.

我們將管理增長與盈利能力之間的平衡，預計在考慮到我之前提到的增長投資的影響後，2019 年非 GAAP 每股收益按固定貨幣計算將以較低的兩位數增長。

If economic conditions were to further soften, we'll still preference growth over realizing short-term margin because we believe this is the best for our business in the long term.

如果經濟狀況進一步走軟，我們仍然會優先考慮增長而不是實現短期利潤，因為我們相信這對我們的業務長期而言是最好的。

So with that as a framework, let's turn our attention to Q1.

因此，以此為框架，讓我們將注意力轉向第一季度。

Our Q1 guidance reflects our quarter-to-date actual results and our forecast for the remainder of the quarter.

我們的第一季度指引反映了我們季度至今的實際結果和我們對本季度剩餘時間的預測。

Foreign exchange rates are expected to be an approximately 6 to 7 percentage points headwind to year-over-year growth rates in Q1, which we estimate will impact gross bookings, revenue, EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS growth rates by similar amounts.

預計外匯匯率將對第一季度的同比增長率產生約 6 至 7 個百分點的不利影響，我們估計這將對總預訂量、收入、EBITDA 和非 GAAP 每股收益增長率產生類似的影響。

We used a dollar-to-euro exchange rate of $1.13 when setting our Q1 guidance.

在設定第一季度指引時，我們使用了 1.13 美元的美元兌歐元匯率。

We are forecasting booked room nights to grow by 6% to 8% and total gross bookings to be approximately flat at the midpoint of our guidance in U.S. dollars and to grow by 5% to 7% on a constant currency basis.

我們預測預訂間夜數將增長 6% 至 8%，總預訂量將大致持平於我們以美元計算的指導值的中點，並以固定匯率計算增長 5% 至 7%。

This reflects what we've seen so far this quarter and also limited impact from our growth investments.

這反映了我們本季度到目前為止所看到的情況，也反映了我們增長投資的有限影響。

Our Q1 forecast assumes a constant currency ADR for the company will be down about 1% compared to the prior period.

我們的第一季度預測假設公司的固定貨幣 ADR 將比上一期間下降約 1%。

We forecast Q1 non-GAAP revenue to be approximately flat at the midpoint of our guidance in U.S. dollars and grow by 5% to 7% on a constant currency basis.

我們預測第一季度非 GAAP 收入將大致持平於我們以美元計算的指導的中點，並在固定匯率基礎上增長 5% 至 7%。

Normalizing for both Easter and constant currency, we estimate that Q1 non-GAAP revenue to grow by 7% to 9%.

將復活節和固定貨幣標準化，我們估計第一季度非 GAAP 收入將增長 7% 至 9%。

We forecast that Q1 GAAP revenue will be down 2% to approximately flat when compared to Q1 last year.

我們預測，與去年第一季度相比，第一季度 GAAP 收入將下降 2%，大致持平。

Q1 adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $680 million and $700 million.

第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 6.8 億美元至 7 億美元之間。

The resulting growth rate is also negatively impacted by unfavorable year-on-year FX change and by Easter timing.

由此產生的增長率也受到不利的同比外匯變化和復活節時間的負面影響。

Normalizing for both Easter and constant currency, we estimate that Q1 EBITDA will grow by 2% to 4%.

將復活節和固定貨幣正常化，我們估計第一季度 EBITDA 將增長 2% 至 4%。

As I mentioned earlier, this is negatively impacted by our growth investments, especially in our seasonally smallest revenue quarter.

正如我之前提到的，這受到我們的增長投資的負面影響，尤其是在我們季節性最小的收入季度。

We are forecasting leverage from performance marketing expense line in Q1, reflecting low volumes in the pay channels and our continued focus on acquiring high-quality traffic.

我們預測第一季度績效營銷費用線的槓桿作用，反映出付費渠道的低流量以及我們繼續專注於獲取高質量流量。

We expect to accelerate our brand marketing spend in the quarter, which will contribute to deleverage to the P&L and more than offset the leverage we're expecting from performance marketing.

我們希望在本季度加快我們的品牌營銷支出，這將有助於去槓桿化 P&L，並且超過我們對績效營銷的預期槓桿作用。

Brand marketing is a key area where we're making growth investments to drive more direct traffic to our websites and build better awareness.

品牌營銷是我們進行增長投資以吸引更多直接訪問我們網站的流量並提高知名度的關鍵領域。

Finally, sales and other expense growth is expected to decelerate relative to Q4, but will continue to grow faster than revenue primarily due to ramp up of our payment platform at Booking.com.

最後，銷售額和其他費用的增長預計將相對於第四季度有所放緩，但增長速度將繼續快於收入，這主要是由於我們在 Booking.com 的支付平台的發展。

We are forecasting Q1 non-GAAP EPS of approximately $10.90 to $11.20.

我們預測第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益約為 10.90 美元至 11.20 美元。

Normalizing for both Easter and constant currency, we estimate Q1 non-GAAP EPS growth to grow in the low double digits.

將復活節和固定貨幣標準化，我們估計第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益增長將以低兩位數增長。

Our non-GAAP EPS forecast includes an estimated income tax rate of approximately 18%, which is lower than Q1 last year primarily due to the clarification around a provision of the Tax Act previously mentioned and lower than our full year non-GAAP tax rate due to certain discrete tax benefits typically realized in the first quarter.

我們的非 GAAP 每股收益預測包括約 18% 的估計所得稅率，低於去年第一季度，這主要是由於對前面提到的稅法條款的澄清，並且低於我們的全年非 GAAP 稅率某些離散的稅收優惠通常在第一季度實現。

We expect our full year non-GAAP tax rate to be 19% to 19.5%.

我們預計全年非公認會計原則稅率為 19% 至 19.5%。

Our Q1 non-GAAP EPS guidance assumes a fully diluted share count of about 45.6 million shares, which is 7% below Q1 last year.

我們的第一季度非 GAAP 每股收益指引假設完全攤薄後的股票數量約為 4560 萬股，比去年第一季度低 7%。

We forecast GAAP EPS between $9.90 and $10.20 for Q1.

我們預測第一季度的 GAAP 每股收益在 9.90 美元至 10.20 美元之間。

Our GAAP EPS guidance for Q1 assumes a tax rate of approximately 18%.

我們對第一季度的 GAAP 每股收益指引假設稅率約為 18%。

We have hedge contracts in place to substantially shield our first quarter EBITDA and net income from any further fluctuation in currencies versus the dollar between now and the end of quarter, but the hedges do not protect our gross bookings, revenue or operating profit from the impact of foreign currency fluctuations.

我們制定了對沖合約，以大幅保護我們第一季度的 EBITDA 和淨收入免受從現在到季度末貨幣兌美元匯率進一步波動的影響，但對沖並不能保護我們的總預訂量、收入或營業利潤免受影響的外匯波動。

Our forecast does not assume any significant change in macroeconomic conditions in general or in the travel market, in particular.

我們的預測並未假設整體宏觀經濟狀況或特別是旅遊市場發生任何重大變化。

With that, we'll now take your questions.

有了這個，我們現在將回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Justin Post from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美銀美林的賈斯汀波斯特。

I'll just start off with a high-level question.

我將從一個高級問題開始。

When you look at your bookings growth rate in Q1 and you think about how you're performing versus other companies, it seems like it's a bit of a difference, your guidance versus other people in the travel industry.

當您查看第一季度的預訂增長率並考慮您與其他公司的表現時，您的指導與旅遊業其他人的指導似乎有點不同。

So how do you kind of reconcile that?

那麼你如何調和呢？

And then maybe if you could tell us how much better February was versus January and if you think there was just something really abnormal for the first 2 months of the year.

然後也許你能告訴我們二月比一月好多少，如果你認為今年前兩個月真的有些不正常。

Justin, it's Glenn.

賈斯汀，是格倫。

So as you know, we are very European-centric in our business.

如您所知，我們的業務非常以歐洲為中心。

We are a global company for sure, but our biggest business is, by far, in Europe.

我們當然是一家全球性公司，但到目前為止，我們最大的業務在歐洲。

And Europe has definitely seen and is experiencing a slowdown if you look at any of the macro indicators out there, any of the published information, whether it comes from the EU's data people, if it comes out from any of the investment banks that put out predictions for how European economies are going to go.

如果你看看那裡的任何宏觀指標、任何已發布的信息，無論是來自歐盟的數據人員，還是來自任何一家發布數據的投資銀行，歐洲肯定已經看到並正在經歷經濟放緩對歐洲經濟將如何發展的預測。

And you see, and even, I think it was yesterday, our Chairman of the Federal Reserve who actually said seeing headwinds in Europe.

你看，甚至，我想是在昨天，我們的美聯儲主席實際上說看到了歐洲的逆風。

So I think that is one element that we show a difference.

所以我認為這是我們表現出差異的一個因素。

On the other hand, I think if you look at the pure European players, if you look at some of the tour operators, the 2 who are the biggest in there, and I would suggest take a look at their numbers and what they said, I think that you'll see significant consistency with what we're saying right here, right now.

另一方面，我想如果你看看純粹的歐洲球員，如果你看看一些旅行社，那裡最大的兩個，我建議看看他們的數據和他們說的話，我認為您會看到與我們現在在這裡所說的內容非常一致。

And there are a lot of uncertainties there.

那裡有很多不確定性。

And uncertainty is something that absolutely makes people a little hesitant to book.

不確定性絕對會讓人們有點猶豫是否要預訂。

And I can go through it, besides just general macro we can talk about Brexit, which is obviously creating a tremendous amount of uncertainty.

我可以通過它，除了一般的宏觀之外，我們還可以談論英國脫歐，這顯然造成了巨大的不確定性。

And people uncertain, should I spend a lot of money right now or not?

人們不確定，我現在應該花很多錢嗎？

I don't know what's going to happen.

我不知道會發生什麼。

I don't know, are there going to be troubles getting -- traveling intra-Europe.

我不知道，在歐洲內部旅行是否會遇到麻煩。

Are there going to be troubles with FX changes?

外匯變動會有麻煩嗎？

Or if you go into political issues.

或者，如果您涉及政治問題。

In France, weekly political issues with the yellow vest protest, which makes it, do I want to go to Paris with that happening on Saturday and Sunday?

在法國，每週都有黃色背心抗議的政治問題，這使得我想在周六和周日去巴黎嗎？

Go to Germany where the car industry that drives the German economy which has slowed down is a secondary impact from trade arguments throughout the world, particularly China-U.

去德國，推動德國經濟放緩的汽車行業是全球貿易爭論的次要影響，尤其是中美貿易。

S. is -- has a secondary impact on Germany.

S. 對德國有次要影響。

Go to Italy, where the government there seems to be a little bit in flux with what they're doing.

去意大利吧，那裡的政府似乎對他們正在做的事情有點動搖。

I can go on and on.

我可以繼續下去。

The fact is, we are more impacted by things that happen in Europe than, say, a U.S.-based company.

事實上，與美國公司相比，歐洲發生的事情對我們的影響更大。

So I would say that on that one.

所以我會說那個。

In terms of actually in February and how that was, I think David said it about as much color as we're going to say is that February was a nice uptick from January, but it was still below December in Europe.

就 2 月的實際情況以及情況而言，我認為大衛說的顏色與我們要說的一樣多，即 2 月比 1 月好轉，但在歐洲仍低於 12 月。

And I think that's about all.

我認為這就是全部。

David, anything else you want to add to that?

大衛，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I just want to make it -- recap the other comment which I made.

我只想做到這一點——重述我所做的其他評論。

I think, Glenn, you just talked exactly about what I said about Europe.

我想，格倫，你剛剛談到了我對歐洲的看法。

But I also just want to recap, Justin, that you heard that we said, this really is an issue that's focused upon Europe and that room night growth in the other parts of the world are much more in line with what we saw in December.

但我也只想回顧一下，賈斯汀，你聽說我們說過，這確實是一個關注歐洲的問題，世界其他地區的間夜增長更符合我們在 12 月份看到的情況。

Our next question is from Mark Mahaney from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mark Mahaney。

Appreciate, I think, the relatively new disclosure on alternative accommodations.

我認為，欣賞關於替代住宿的相對較新的披露。

I didn't quite expect it to be that high as a percentage of revenue.

我沒想到它佔收入的百分比會那麼高。

So maybe talk a little bit more about that.

所以也許多談一點。

I think you said that it was nicely profitable.

我想你說這是非常有利可圖的。

So is it as profitable as the non-alternative, as the core business?

那麼它是否像非替代品一樣有利可圖，作為核心業務？

Maybe how much faster it's growing than the overall business?

也許它的增長速度比整體業務快多少？

And then any color, are there particular regions?

然後是任何顏色，是否有特定區域？

Is there any more color about where that growth is coming from in alternative accommodations?

關於替代住宿的增長來自哪裡還有更多的顏色嗎？

Any more color there would be helpful.

任何更多的顏色都會有所幫助。

So it is a new disclosure, and we were very proud of that.

所以這是一個新的披露，我們為此感到非常自豪。

When I mentioned about Q3 and breaking that $1 billion milestone, I think we were all pretty darn pleased about that.

當我提到第三季度並打破 10 億美元的里程碑時，我想我們都非常高興。

In terms of profitability, I'd say nicely profitable.

就盈利能力而言，我會說非常有利可圖。

I'm not going to get into the details of it.

我不打算詳細介紹它。

One thing we have talked about in the past though about how sometimes the costs involved, they can be more than the costs with the traditional hotel product.

我們過去曾談過一件事，儘管有時涉及的成本可能高於傳統酒店產品的成本。

And it's easy to see that when you start talking about scale.

當您開始談論規模時，很容易看出這一點。

If you want to deal with a hotel that has hundreds of rooms.

如果你想與擁有數百間客房的酒店打交道。

You can distribute that cost much more easily than when you're going property by property by property.

與逐個財產地分配成本相比，您可以更輕鬆地分配該成本。

And that, that's about as much color as I'll give in terms of profitability.

而且，就盈利能力而言，這與我要給出的顏色差不多。

We'll say in terms of geographic growth, et cetera, look, we have made a point in the past, and I'm going to continue this, is that we know that we are -- and I just mentioned how we're a European-centric company.

我們會說在地理增長方面，等等，看，我們過去已經提出了一個觀點，我將繼續這一點，我們知道我們是 - 我剛剛提到了我們如何一家以歐洲為中心的公司。

And we do very well in the capital cities, in the alternative accommodations.

我們在首府城市的替代住宿方面做得很好。

We've got great properties there.

我們在那裡有很棒的房產。

We are able to produce a very good offer there.

我們能夠在那裡提供非常好的報價。

In other parts of the world, in the U.S., in particular, we need to increase our properties, particularly a certain type.

在世界其他地方，特別是在美國，我們需要增加我們的財產，特別是某種類型的財產。

And that is a single home that is in the beach locations, some of the ski locations.

那是一個位於海灘位置，一些滑雪地點的單一住宅。

And just to give -- I'll just point an example to show this.

只是為了給 - 我只是舉一個例子來說明這一點。

I was looking -- talking about getting a Hamptons house for the family.

我在尋找 - 談論為家人買一套漢普頓的房子。

And I looked at that on our site and I looked at some of our competitor site.

我在我們的網站上查看了它，還查看了我們的一些競爭對手網站。

I'm saying, we got to get some more of that stuff.

我是說，我們必須得到更多的東西。

And that is something that we are doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

That's part of things that we invest in.

這是我們投資的一部分。

And I look at it as a glass half full type.

我把它看作是半滿的玻璃杯。

And this is a great opportunity for us to increase and really drive the accelerator down a little bit in that area and grow our business.

這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，可以增加並真正降低該領域的加速器並發展我們的業務。

Our next question is from Lloyd Walmsley from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Lloyd Walmsley。

I guess, first, it looks like performance marketing spend was up about 12% in the quarter, call it, 16%, 17% ex FX and almost 20% when you include brand spend and yet room nights booked was up only about 13%.

我想，首先，看起來績效營銷支出在本季度增長了約 12%，可以稱之為 16%、17% ex FX 和將近 20%，如果包括品牌支出，但預訂的間夜數僅增長約 13% .

Can you give us a sense for what's going on with marketing ROIs and maybe some more color on how that's trending in kind of acquired channels -- growth is trending in acquired versus direct?

您能否讓我們了解營銷投資回報率的進展情況，也許還有更多關於收購渠道趨勢的顏色 - 收購渠道與直接渠道的增長趨勢？

And then, I guess, in some of the prepared remarks, you talked a lot about growth investments.

然後，我想，在一些準備好的發言中，你談到了很多關於增長投資的問題。

It sounds like most of those are going to be on the brand side.

聽起來其中大部分都將在品牌方面。

Are you also going to be leaning in on the performance side for growth?

您是否也將依靠績效方面來實現增長？

And any color you can share would be great.

你可以分享的任何顏色都很棒。

Yes, Lloyd, this is David.

是的，勞埃德，這是大衛。

Let me start that.

讓我開始吧。

So let me just kind of clarify the difference between what we expected than what we saw in Q4.

因此，讓我澄清一下我們預期的與我們在第四季度看到的之間的區別。

You have to look at Q4.

你必須看看第四季度。

You have to exclude the impact of the extra revenue when kind of doing your leverage and deleverage calculations.

在進行槓桿和去槓桿計算時，您必須排除額外收入的影響。

So on a like-for-like basis, we actually expected to get some deleverage in the performance marketing line.

因此，在類似的基礎上，我們實際上希望在績效營銷領域獲得一些去槓桿化。

We actually wound up with a little bit of leverage.

實際上，我們最終獲得了一點槓桿。

It's part of the reason why we came over on our EBITDA guidance for the quarter.

這是我們接受本季度 EBITDA 指導的部分原因。

And basically what drove that compared to our expectations was a little bit less volume than we're expecting in those channels and actually with ROIs that are in line with our guidance when we spoke to you about the quarter at the beginning of it.

基本上，與我們的預期相比，推動這一點的是這些渠道的銷量比我們預期的要少一點，實際上投資回報率符合我們在本季度開始時與您交談時的指導。

And actually, if you look at my comments about Q1, you see a similar trend as well.

事實上，如果你看看我對第一季度的評論，你也會看到類似的趨勢。

We're expecting some leverage in the performance marketing channel again in Q1 because volumes are a little lower, but we're still getting solid ROIs against those volumes.

我們預計在第一季度再次在績效營銷渠道中發揮一定的影響力，因為銷量略有下降，但我們仍然從這些銷量中獲得了可觀的投資回報率。

So you see our mix towards direct continuing to increase as a result of that leverage we're getting in those channels.

因此，由於我們在這些渠道中獲得的影響力，您會看到我們對直接的組合繼續增加。

And then in terms of growth, I think we kind of gave you the growth investments.

然後在增長方面，我認為我們給了你增長投資。

And we gave you a feel that they're going to impact our EBITDA growth this year by a few basis points.

我們給你的感覺是，它們將對我們今年的 EBITDA 增長產生幾個基點的影響。

In terms of the income statement, I kind of basically told you where you'll see them.

就損益表而言，我基本上已經告訴你在哪裡可以看到它們。

Some of them will appear in the branding line.

其中一些將出現在品牌系列中。

Some of them will appear in the revenue line in terms of merchandising, customer acquisition, customer incentive programs.

其中一些將出現在銷售、客戶獲取、客戶激勵計劃方面的收入線上。

You'll see some increases in the personnel line to support those investments directly.

你會看到人事方面的一些增加，以直接支持這些投資。

In some of the countries where we talked about investing for long-term returns, there are some increases in performance marketing associated with those countries, but it's not the major part of the investment program.

在我們談到為長期回報進行投資的一些國家，與這些國家相關的績效營銷有所增加，但這不是投資計劃的主要部分。

Our next question is from Kevin Kopelman from Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Kevin Kopelman。

Can you give us -- so just to go into the room nights growth a little bit more for the first quarter.

你能給我們嗎 - 所以只是為了進入第一季度的間夜增長。

The guidance is about 400 basis points lower compared to your guidance for the fourth quarter.

與您對第四季度的指導相比，該指導低了約 400 個基點。

So is that fully just from the European kind of macro comments that you were mentioning?

那麼，這是否完全來自您提到的歐洲宏觀評論？

Or are there any other key factors there for the Q1 nights guide?

還是 Q1 夜間指南還有其他關鍵因素？

And then I had another one.

然後我有另一個。

Kevin, I'll take that.

凱文，我會接受的。

I mean, that really is the major factor.

我的意思是，這確實是主要因素。

Just kind of stitch together a couple of comments that we made to make sure that you kind of got them.

只是將我們所做的一些評論拼湊在一起，以確保您能理解它們。

So as we said when we guided for Q4, we expected some deceleration in room nights in the fourth quarter from what we've seen.

因此，正如我們在為第四季度提供指導時所說的那樣，我們預計第四季度的房間間夜數會比我們所看到的有所減速。

We obviously came quite strongly out of Q3 in September.

我們顯然在 9 月份的第三季度表現強勁。

We mentioned that we were seeing pretty good room night growth in October.

我們提到 10 月份的間夜量增長相當不錯。

And as we expected, we saw a little step down in the fourth quarter.

正如我們預期的那樣，我們在第四季度看到了一些下滑。

And in fact, November and December room nights were quite comparable to each other, but a little bit less than October.

事實上，11 月和 12 月間夜量相當，但略低於 10 月。

And therefore, a little bit less than the average of where we came out for the quarter.

因此，略低於我們本季度的平均水平。

And then you jump off that point and I think the rest of it we've kind of been through.

然後你跳出那一點，我想剩下的我們已經經歷過了。

We saw a step-down, then a bit of bounce back in Europe.

我們在歐洲看到了下降，然後又出現了一些反彈。

And we really do believe that's tied to the macro.

我們確實相信這與宏觀經濟有關。

And we've looked at that very carefully.

我們已經非常仔細地研究了這一點。

And then we saw relatively similar performance in the first couple of months this quarter as we saw to the last few months of last quarter outside of Europe.

然後我們在本季度的前幾個月看到了與我們在歐洲以外的上個季度的最後幾個月看到的相對相似的表現。

Okay.

好的。

And then just to follow up on the investment in customer acquisition programs, particularly the incentive programs.

然後只是跟進客戶獲取計劃的投資，特別是激勵計劃。

Can you give us more color on what you're doing there?

你能給我們更多關於你在那裡做什麼的顏色嗎？

And are you focusing on an incentive-based loyalty program or is it more on special one-off offers for new customers or all customers?

您是專注於基於激勵的忠誠度計劃，還是更多地關注為新客戶或所有客戶提供的一次性特別優惠？

Well, actually, Kevin, it's actually that and many more.

好吧，實際上，凱文，實際上是這樣，還有更多。

There are lots of different ways to put that money to work and achieve what we want to do in terms of an ROI that we think is acceptable over the long run.

有很多不同的方法可以讓這筆錢發揮作用，並根據我們認為從長遠來看可以接受的投資回報率實現我們想要做的事情。

And certainly, the 2 you mentioned are there.

當然，您提到的 2 個就在那裡。

And there are a lot of other ones and it depends on which geography you're in, too.

還有很多其他的，這也取決於您所在的地理位置。

If you go to some of the things happening in the Asia marketplace where there's significantly more price competition with discounting by wholesalers that's being put into retail, all sorts of things.

如果你去看看亞洲市場上發生的一些事情，那裡的價格競爭明顯更激烈，批發商的折扣正在進入零售業，各種各樣的事情。

We need to be able to compete with that straight out.

我們需要能夠直接與之競爭。

If we don't provide a value to our customers, we're not going to get that kind of sales.

如果我們不為客戶提供價值，我們就不會獲得這種銷售。

We got to do that.

我們必須這樣做。

Certainly, there is things like potential loyalty programs.

當然，還有潛在的忠誠度計劃之類的東西。

There are different things for just bringing new customers.

僅僅帶來新客戶就有不同的事情。

And even things, and I'll give you an example, it's a small thing.

甚至事情，我給你舉個例子，這是一件小事。

But I got a postcard yesterday from Booking.com that offered up -- in snail mail that offered me a discount if I went to the site and went in.

但我昨天從 Booking.com 收到了一張明信片，上面是平郵，如果我去網站入住，可以享受折扣。

So lots of different things to do.

有很多不同的事情要做。

And on top of those pure ones, it's putting together the packages with different types of our inventory, different types of our products to create a better value that we may end up doing some subsidy for us, but we may also be working partially with suppliers.

在那些純粹的之上，它把我們不同類型的庫存、不同類型的產品放在一起創造更好的價值，我們可能最終會為我們提供一些補貼，但我們也可能與供應商部分合作.

So for example, we have new deals with Didi and Grab.

例如，我們與滴滴和 Grab 有新的交易。

Those are ground transportation companies primarily.

這些主要是地面運輸公司。

Working with them where we meet together work to be able to get more customers to those companies in areas that they need or they helping us get us customers in areas that we need and doing different types of cooperative types of marketing programs that will help us get more customers.

在我們會面的地方與他們合作，以便能夠在他們需要的領域為這些公司吸引更多客戶，或者他們幫助我們在我們需要的領域吸引客戶，並開展不同類型的合作類型的營銷計劃，這將幫助我們獲得更多的客戶。

Lots of different ways to do that.

有很多不同的方法可以做到這一點。

And we're going to always be measuring which ones are giving us the best ROI.

我們將始終衡量哪些能給我們帶來最好的投資回報率。

And then just a housekeeping on the EPS guide.

然後只是對 EPS 指南的整理。

Does that assume the future buybacks that -- now that you expect to use that program in '19?

這是否假設未來的回購 - 現在您希望在 19 年使用該程序？

Yes.

是的。

Basically, yes.

基本上，是的。

The EPS guidance from a housekeeping point of view, we said that we expect to use our remaining authorization.

從內務處理的角度來看，EPS 指南表示我們希望使用剩餘的授權。

So we gave you a specific share count number for Q1.

因此，我們為您提供了第一季度的具體股數。

But in our guide for the full year, it assumes we extinguish that remaining authorization.

但在我們的全年指南中，它假設我們取消了剩餘的授權。

Our next question is from Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

Glenn, I was hoping you could drill down more on the key benefits of the payment platform.

格倫，我希望你能深入了解支付平台的主要優勢。

And then if you could talk a little bit about when you start seeing those benefits more and how long it takes to fully roll out.

然後，如果你能談談你什麼時候開始更多地看到這些好處以及完全推出需要多長時間。

And then, David, just on the 1Q guide, is it safe to assume here that you're assuming further decel as you usually have done in previous quarters in the past?

然後，大衛，就在 1Q 指南中，可以安全地假設你假設你假設進一步減速，就像你過去通常在前幾個季度所做的那樣嗎？

Doug, you're right.

道格，你是對的。

This payment platform is a very important thing for Booking.com as we go forward in developing its merchant capability so we can provide this greater merchandising.

這個支付平台對 Booking.com 來說是一件非常重要的事情，因為我們會繼續發展其商戶能力，以便我們能夠提供更大的商品。

A couple of things I just mentioned.

我剛才提到的幾件事。

You need a payment platform to be able to do some of the things I was just talking answering Kevin's question.

您需要一個支付平台才能完成我剛才在回答 Kevin 的問題時所說的一些事情。

So that's the basics there, but there's even more.

這就是那裡的基礎知識，但還有更多。

Just simple, yes, I mentioned how important it is for our alternative accommodations business that we want to continue to grow that out.

很簡單，是的，我提到了我們希望繼續發展它對我們的替代住宿業務有多麼重要。

Well, that's also a very important thing to have because as you go after those single-home property owners who are not that sophisticated.

好吧，這也是一件非常重要的事情，因為當你追求那些不那麼老練的獨棟業主時。

The old agency method that we used primarily at Booking.com is not really the thing that they want to use.

我們主要在 Booking.com 使用的舊代理方法並不是他們真正想要使用的東西。

They're not planning to be there and take a credit card and then get a bill from us to get -- to send us our commission.

他們不打算去那裡拿信用卡，然後從我們這裡得到一張賬單來向我們發送佣金。

They want to have a merchant product there.

他們希望在那裡有商品。

So that's an important thing, too.

所以這也是一件重要的事情。

It's one of those things we're always going to be working on because a payments platform is not just the simple thing in America where we're using credit cards.

這是我們一直致力於的事情之一，因為在我們使用信用卡的美國，支付平台不僅僅是簡單的事情。

There are new payment systems throughout the world that are coming up all the time, and we need to be able to provide that to both sides of our marketplace.

世界各地不斷出現新的支付系統，我們需要能夠為我們的市場雙方提供這種系統。

There are people on the supply side that we connect to Alipay.

有供給端的人，我們對接支付寶。

I want to be part of WeChat Pay.

我想加入微信支付。

That's how I want to get my money and you got to do that.

這就是我想要得到我的錢的方式，而你必須那樣做。

Same thing on the customer who wants to pay.

想要付款的客戶也是如此。

They say, hey, I want to use Paytm or I want to do M-Pesa.

他們說，嘿，我想使用 Paytm 或者我想做 M-Pesa。

And I can go through an endless list of these things.

我可以瀏覽這些東西的無窮無盡的清單。

So when we talk about a payment platform, we're talking about something that's global and able to use throughout in helping reduce that friction in the entire transaction.

因此，當我們談論支付平台時，我們談論的是一種全球性的東西，能夠貫穿始終，幫助減少整個交易中的摩擦。

And Doug, let me just pick up on that and also clarify your question.

道格，讓我繼續討論並澄清你的問題。

Of course, payments is very important, but let's make sure it's not going to be the entire business.

當然，付款非常重要，但我們要確保這不會是整個業務。

We do believe that pay at the property, which has been a big piece of our business, continues to be a big piece of our business, is also a very important part of our portfolio, and a lot of our customers and a lot of our partners also like that as well.

我們確實相信，在物業支付，這一直是我們業務的重要組成部分，仍然是我們業務的重要組成部分，也是我們投資組合中非常重要的一部分，我們的很多客戶和我們的很多人合作夥伴也喜歡這樣。

So it's bringing in an additional capability to complement what we do so well at Booking.com.

因此，它帶來了額外的功能來補充我們在 Booking.com 所做的出色工作。

And then to comment upon your question on the Q1 guide.

然後在 Q1 指南中評論您的問題。

No, our Q1 guide does not assume a deceleration.

不，我們的 Q1 指南不假設減速。

That's why I did not say that.

這就是為什麼我沒有那樣說。

In fact, specifically, we said that January was, in fact, again, with the rest of the world being relatively consistent with December, I said that in Europe January was a step-down and February was a step-up.

事實上，具體來說，我們說 1 月實際上再次與世界其他地區與 12 月相對一致，我說在歐洲 1 月是降級，2 月是升級。

So it reflects what we've seen so far and our expectation for the rest of the quarter, but it does not reflect a deceleration.

因此，它反映了我們到目前為止所看到的情況以及我們對本季度剩餘時間的預期，但並不反映減速。

Our next question is from Deepak Mathivanan from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Deepak Mathivanan。

Yes, somewhat related question on the payment side, what is currently the go-to-market strategy for the payments platform that's incentivizing hoteliers to choose your payment solution versus their existing one?

是的，在支付方面有些相關的問題，目前激勵酒店經營者選擇您的支付解決方案而不是現有支付平台的支付平台的上市策略是什麼？

And then over time, do you think there's additional opportunity to generate economics from the payments efforts?

然後隨著時間的推移，您是否認為還有更多機會從支付工作中產生經濟效益？

Right now it sounds like you are probably using some incentives for adoption.

現在聽起來您可能正在使用一些激勵措施來促進收養。

So just wanted to get some color there.

所以只是想在那裡得到一些顏色。

I'll take that and I'm going to reverse because it is exciting, the second part of your question about being able to use the payment platform, not necessarily something that is increasing costs or is something that actually over time will actually enable us to make more money.

我會接受它，我會倒過來，因為它很令人興奮，你關於能夠使用支付平台的問題的第二部分，不一定是增加成本的東西，或者實際上隨著時間的推移實際上會讓我們賺更多的錢。

And given the volumes that we put through and are putting through in the future, I believe that is a great opportunity, but that is down the road.

考慮到我們已經完成和未來正在完成的數量，我相信這是一個很好的機會，但這是在路上。

Right now in terms of incentivization and why, listen, as David just mentioned, our agency product is still a -- it's an enormous part of the product.

現在就激勵和原因而言，聽著，正如大衛剛才提到的，我們的代理產品仍然是——它是產品的重要組成部分。

It's the way people, major hotels are still going to probably want to do for some time.

這是人們、大型酒店在一段時間內可能仍想採用的方式。

But again, I go back to the thing about merchandising, putting it in packages.

但是，我又回到了關於商品銷售的事情上，把它打包。

One of the things we always try and emphasize how we try and work with our supplier partners cooperatively in a way that adds value to both of us.

我們總是嘗試並強調我們如何嘗試與我們的供應商合作夥伴以一種為我們雙方增加價值的方式合作。

And having that merchant payment product available so that we can combine a hotel with another service in a way that helps bring that customer to that hotel in a way that is frictionless, easy, makes that payment so much easier for the customer, well, I think hotels are going to want to do that if it gets them more business.

有了商戶支付產品，我們就可以將一家酒店與另一項服務結合起來，以一種無摩擦、簡單的方式幫助將該客戶帶到該酒店，使客戶的支付變得更加容易，好吧，我如果這能為他們帶來更多業務，他們認為酒店會願意這樣做。

And I think that's really the incentive for that.

我認為這才是真正的動機。

Over time, that could also be a volume issue where we can do a payment product that is significantly less expensive for smaller hotels in other parts of the world where their costs are higher.

隨著時間的推移，這也可能成為一個數量問題，我們可以為世界其他成本較高的地區的小型酒店開發一種成本低得多的支付產品。

Our next question is from Stephen Ju from Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Stephen Ju。

So building on your highest potential market commentary earlier, it seems like there's more dialogue around your local efforts in China, both in terms of earnings calls like this as well as interviews with your local management teams and talking about the opportunity for outbound.

因此，在您早些時候發表的最具潛力的市場評論的基礎上，似乎圍繞您在中國當地的努力進行了更多對話，無論是在像這樣的收益電話會議上，還是在與當地管理團隊的訪談和談論出境機會方面。

So you've always had partnerships there, but why is now the right time for what looks like what's probably more of a direct effort to advertise and establish the Booking.com brand in the country?

所以你一直在那裡有合作夥伴關係，但為什麼現在是合適的時間，看起來更像是在該國做廣告和建立 Booking.com 品牌的直接努力？

And is perhaps the greater conversion rate from the payment product, is that what's making, I guess, the ROIs there possible now?

也許支付產品的轉化率更高，我想這就是現在可能實現投資回報率的原因嗎？

I would look at it a little differently, actually.

實際上，我會以不同的方式看待它。

We first started our business in China many, many, many years ago.

很多很多年前，我們首先在中國開展業務。

We now have approximately 1,000 employees there, and we have different call centers there.

我們現在在那裡有大約 1,000 名員工，我們在那裡有不同的呼叫中心。

We have always been pushing out our own brands.

我們一直在推出自己的品牌。

And it's not just Booking.com.

不僅僅是 Booking.com。

Agoda's been operating in China for a very long time.

Agoda在中國經營了很長時間。

So I think that the way we look at is, we're always trying to use all the different ways to get more customers through our platform and be able to provide more value to customers and hoteliers.

所以我認為我們看待的方式是，我們一直在嘗試使用所有不同的方式通過我們的平台吸引更多客戶，並能夠為客戶和酒店經營者提供更多價值。

So yes, we absolutely are doing deals with lots of different players in China because we think that's a way to help build up our business.

所以是的，我們絕對在與中國的許多不同參與者進行交易，因為我們認為這是幫助我們建立業務的一種方式。

But I don't think it's anything different.

但我不認為這有什麼不同。

I don't think it's a change.

我不認為這是一個改變。

In terms of the payment product, there is some difference in some things that do help in terms of doing business in China, having that product there is good.

就支付產品而言，在一些確實有助於在中國開展業務的事情上存在一些差異，擁有該產品是件好事。

I'd like to point out Agoda has always been a merchant player, and they've done very well there.

我想指出的是，Agoda 一直是商家玩家，他們在那裡做得很好。

Bookings in the past was primarily agency business.

過去的預訂主要是代理業務。

They've done very well there.

他們在那裡做得很好。

But I do think having that flexibility, particularly with Alipay and with WeChat Pay and some of the other things coming in here, our agreement with Didi, Meituan, I think these things are helpful to have that platform there.

但我確實認為擁有這種靈活性，特別是支付寶和微信支付以及其他一些東西，我們與滴滴、美團達成的協議，我認為這些東西有助於在那裡擁有這個平台。

Our next question is from Naved Khan from SunTrust.

我們的下一個問題來自 SunTrust 的 Naved Khan。

I'd like 2 clarifications on this sort of recent trend in sort of macro-related slowdown in Europe.

我想就歐洲與宏觀相關的經濟放緩這種近期趨勢做出兩點澄清。

Are you seeing sort of customer eventually book, but not really booking in advance, kind of waiting more until the last minute?

您是否看到某種客戶最終預訂，但不是真正提前預訂，而是等到最後一分鐘？

Is that kind of a behavior you are seeing?

你看到的是那種行為嗎？

Or are you seeing kind of demand weaken altogether?

還是您看到某種需求完全減弱？

And then another question I have was about just the growth in different sort of channels.

然後我的另一個問題是關於不同類型渠道的增長。

I think I heard you mention mobile growing faster and alternative growing faster.

我想我聽說你提到移動增長更快，替代增長更快。

I did not hear about direct growing faster.

我沒有聽說直接增長更快。

Was that still the case that direct bookings are faster growing?

直接預訂的增長速度是否仍然如此？

So I'll take that first and then I'll let David talk about growth and speed.

所以我先講這個，然後讓大衛談談增長和速度。

I think that it'll be interesting over -- we need more time to see if this uncertainty factor that I meant, this propensity, perhaps, to wait to book.

我認為這會很有趣——我們需要更多時間來了解我所說的不確定性因素，也許是這種等待預訂的傾向。

We'll need a little more time to see if it's been a drastic change.

我們需要更多時間來了解這是否是一個巨大的變化。

And that is what is happening right now.

這就是現在正在發生的事情。

I would say that it was interesting in the third quarter where we did have a lot of people who, obviously, waited to book because either it was World Cup or the heat or whatever.

我要說的是，第三節很有趣，我們確實有很多人顯然在等待預訂，因為要么是世界杯，要么是熱火隊，要么是其他什麼。

And then we did see that delayed pick up in bookings in third quarter.

然後我們確實看到第三季度的預訂延遲回升。

I think a little early to say exactly what's happening and I think it's also what's going to happen in the macro environment.

我認為確切地說出正在發生的事情還為時過早，我認為這也是宏觀環境中將要發生的事情。

Yes.

是的。

And then -- sorry, I obviously covered a lot of things in my earlier comments, but I did talk about direct.

然後——抱歉，我在之前的評論中顯然涵蓋了很多內容，但我確實談到了直接。

And just to confirm and recap, the direct channel did grow faster.

只是為了確認和回顧一下，直接渠道確實增長得更快。

We used to say it was approximately half the business.

我們過去常說這大約是業務的一半。

Now we're saying, it is over half the business and growing faster than the average.

現在我們說，它佔業務的一半以上，並且增長速度超過平均水平。

So we have the direct channel at over half and growing faster than the average.

所以我們有超過一半的直接渠道，並且增長速度超過平均水平。

We've got mobile at over half and growing faster than the average.

我們有超過一半的移動設備，並且增長速度超過平均水平。

And we've got the alternative business at about 20% of our revenues, a higher percentage of our room nights and also growing faster.

我們的替代業務約占我們收入的 20%，占我們間夜的比例更高，而且增長速度更快。

So each 3 of those are doing well and growing faster than the average.

因此，其中每 3 個都表現良好，並且增長速度超過平均水平。

Our next question is from Anthony DiClemente from Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Anthony DiClemente。

In terms of your investments in the alternative accommodation space, it'd be great to understand within that investment bucket how much of it is investing in new supply?

就您對替代住宿空間的投資而言，很高興了解在該投資範圍內有多少投資於新供應？

Glenn, in your example, you mentioned like beach house listings versus marketing of that supply versus investments in the consumer tools to integrate that supply, whether it be like technology or AI that improves the user interface for the customer.

格倫，在你的例子中，你提到了海濱別墅列表與供應的營銷與對消費者工具的投資以整合供應，無論是技術還是人工智能，都可以改善客戶的用戶界面。

And then related to that, just wondering if you're seeing any consumer behavior that suggests maybe an incremental shift to home versus hotel.

然後與此相關，只是想知道您是否看到任何消費者行為表明可能逐漸轉向家庭而不是酒店。

Is that inflecting in any way that is notable or is it more of kind of a steady, linear trend that's going on out there?

這是否以任何值得注意的方式發生變化，或者它更像是一種穩定的線性趨勢？

So one thing, and it may be a little confusing, is the difference between our steady growing listings, growing the business is sort of our steady state, that's what we do all the time, versus what we try and call out a little bit here is that we're doing a step-up in investments.

所以有一件事，可能有點令人困惑，是我們穩定增長的上市之間的區別，業務增長是我們的穩定狀態，這就是我們一直在做的事情，而不是我們在這裡嘗試和呼籲的事情是我們正在加大投資力度。

The listings is not a step-up added investment.

上市不是逐步增加的投資。

It's going to continue to grow our business.

它將繼續發展我們的業務。

And I want to do it, it's something important, but we don't see that as a different thing than we're doing right now.

我想這樣做，這是很重要的事情，但我們認為這與我們現在正在做的事情沒有什麼不同。

So that would not be as part of what we're talking about the step-up investments.

因此，這不會成為我們談論的升級投資的一部分。

In terms of what we need to do to make that business continue to accelerate, do well, is all the elements that we've done for all of our business forever.

就我們需要做些什麼來使該業務繼續加速，做得好，是我們永遠為我們所有業務所做的所有要素。

And that is, I think one of the key things really is getting that knowledge out among certain groups of customers around the world who may not have as much knowledge that we have this great product.

也就是說，我認為真正關鍵的事情之一是在世界各地的某些客戶群體中傳播這些知識，他們可能不太了解我們擁有這個偉大的產品。

And yes, I mentioned, I called out where I think we have a little bit of a shortfall in some parts of it.

是的，我提到過，我指出了我認為我們在其中某些部分存在一些不足的地方。

But the fact is, in the U.S., we got a great product.

但事實是，在美國，我們得到了很棒的產品。

And we do need though to make more customers aware of it.

我們確實需要讓更多的客戶意識到這一點。

And that's part of coming out with that new branding campaign that we launched 2 days ago.

這是我們 2 天前推出的新品牌宣傳活動的一部分。

You won't see it in the stuff you're seeing right -- these couple of days, but it's coming out in terms of as part of it, to make sure that people are aware that we have a non-hotel accommodation product that is out there, that is good.

你不會在你看到的東西中看到它——這幾天，但它作為它的一部分出現，以確保人們知道我們有一個非酒店住宿產品在那裡，那很好。

And we talk about the reasons why we think it's a great thing, about the fact that instant confirmation.

我們討論了我們認為這是一件好事的原因，關於即時確認的事實。

We talk about that you can see that on the same search results as your traditional so you can do a comparison.

我們談到您可以在與傳統搜索結果相同的搜索結果中看到這一點，因此您可以進行比較。

We talk about how you don't get hit at the end with a fee at the end.

我們討論瞭如何在最後收費時不會受到打擊。

All these reasons that we think we have a great product, but definitely getting that branding up, and that's an area we talked about increasing our spend.

所有這些原因使我們認為我們擁有出色的產品，但肯定會提升品牌知名度，這就是我們談到增加支出的領域。

In terms of actual looking at numbers and inflection points, I think that there's nothing that I would see that we saw a crack, oh, my God, this is a difference, we're going to have a huge inflection point.

就實際查看數字和拐點而言，我認為我看不到任何裂縫，哦，天哪，這是一個差異，我們將有一個巨大的拐點。

This is a little bit of blocking and tackling, do all the right things and continue to do it day in, day out, and we'll get there.

這是一些阻擋和攔截，做所有正確的事情並日復一日地繼續這樣做，我們會到達那裡。

And then, Anthony, just to clarify and to build up on Glenn's point just to make sure everyone is clear.

然後，Anthony，我想澄清一下，並在 Glenn 的觀點的基礎上進一步發展，以確保每個人都清楚。

When we talk about these incremental investments we will make in 2019, incremental above investments that we'd normally make with the regular size and growth of the business, these are all focused upon driving growth.

當我們談論我們將在 2019 年進行的這些增量投資時，我們通常會根據業務的正常規模和增長進行的增量投資，這些都集中在推動增長上。

They're focused upon branding.

他們專注於品牌推廣。

They're focused upon customer acquisition.

他們專注於客戶獲取。

They're focused upon merchandising, incentive programs.

他們專注於商品銷售和激勵計劃。

They're all focused upon driving incremental customers to our platform, driving incremental transactions and driving loyalty, so top line-focused.

他們都專注於將增量客戶吸引到我們的平台，推動增量交易並提高忠誠度，因此以頂線為中心。

Our next question is from Michael J. Olson from Piper Jaffray.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Jaffray 的 Michael J. Olson。

I just have one.

我只有一個。

You mentioned several areas of near-term investment.

你提到了幾個近期投資領域。

I don't believe experiences was one of those areas.

我不認為體驗是這些領域之一。

Just curious where that falls in the list of priorities at this point with all the other initiatives going on in alternative accommodations, direct channel growth, payment platform, China, et cetera?

只是好奇在替代住宿、直接渠道增長、支付平台、中國等方面正在進行的所有其他舉措中，在這一點上，這在優先事項列表中屬於什麼？

So it is important.

所以這很重要。

And as David just said, we're trying to just show a little difference into what are the incremental things that we're doing to drive growth.

正如大衛剛才所說，我們正試圖對我們為推動增長所做的增量工作表現出一點不同。

It's a very important part of our business.

這是我們業務中非常重要的一部分。

We bought FareHarbor and put that in.

我們購買了 FareHarbor 並將其放入。

I can tell you now, we have over 100 cities now.

我現在可以告訴你，我們現在有100多個城市。

And I think it's up to almost 120 that have these attractions and things people can do when they show up.

而且我認為擁有這些景點和人們出現時可以做的事情的人數將近 120 家。

And we talked about in the long run how important it is to offer that holistic solution for a customer.

從長遠來看，我們討論了為客戶提供整體解決方案的重要性。

And that goes back to why we're having this payment product.

這可以追溯到我們擁有這種支付產品的原因。

You've got to have that to put together all the elements of the trip and reduce the friction for that customer.

您必須擁有它來整合旅行的所有元素並減少該客戶的摩擦。

So the fact that we didn't throw it out, and we didn't talk about it.

所以我們沒有把它扔掉，我們也沒有談論它。

We went on a half an hour into our prepared remarks and stuff, but I'm glad you asked that question so I could make a point that this is still extremely important part.

我們進行了半小時的準備發言和內容，但我很高興你問了這個問題，所以我可以指出這仍然是非常重要的部分。

And we're very pleased with some of the progress we're seeing there.

我們對在那裡看到的一些進展感到非常滿意。

And it ties together with the work we're doing in Booking also to bring in the cars and rides and put together these great trips.

它與我們在 Booking 中所做的工作聯繫在一起，也引入了汽車和遊樂設施，並將這些偉大的旅行組合在一起。

So it's a very important part of our building out the connected trip experience for our customers.

因此，這是我們為客戶打造互聯旅行體驗的一個非常重要的部分。

Our next question is from Heath Terry from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的希思特里。

This is Daniel Powell on for Heath.

這是希思的丹尼爾鮑威爾。

Just a couple of quick questions for us.

只是問我們幾個簡單的問題。

Just want to dig in a little bit more on some of the comments you made around what you saw in your various marketing channels in the fourth quarter.

只想深入了解您對第四季度在各種營銷渠道中看到的內容所做的一些評論。

It sounded like the ROIs were stable, but the volumes you were seeing were pretty consistent.

聽起來投資回報率很穩定，但您看到的數量卻非常一致。

Just curious if there was a decision around, because of what you were seeing in the macro environment, not to look to lean into other channels or if there was a lack of ROI that you saw outside of the traditional channels that you weren't getting the volume that you had expected to.

只是好奇是否有一個決定，因為你在宏觀環境中看到的，而不是轉向其他渠道，或者你是否在傳統渠道之外看到了你沒有得到的投資回報率您預期的音量。

And then just another one after that.

然後是另一個。

On the delta between room nights growth and bookings growth in the first quarter that you're guiding to, realize it's not very big, but just curious if there's anything about the growth that you're seeing in alternative accommodations that we should think about over the course of 2019 that could be impacting the delta between those 2.

關於您指導的第一季度間夜量增長和預訂量增長之間的增量，意識到它不是很大，但只是好奇您在替代住宿方面看到的增長是否有任何我們應該考慮的地方2019 年的進程可能會影響這兩者之間的三角洲。

Yes.

是的。

Let me take the second one.

讓我拿第二個。

I think you've got to look at everything on a constant currency, Easter adjusted basis.

我認為你必須以固定貨幣、復活節調整為基礎來看待一切。

Sorry to have to do that, but unfortunately, it's the only way to kind of look at things on a like-for-like basis.

很抱歉不得不這樣做，但不幸的是，這是在類似的基礎上看待事物的唯一方式。

So you look at that basis into the first quarter, room night growth is 6% to 8% and gross bookings growth is 5% to 7%, so pretty consistent.

所以你看看第一季度的基礎，間夜增長率為 6% 到 8%，總預訂量增長率為 5% 到 7%，非常一致。

There's an ADR difference.

ADR 存在差異。

We do expect ADRs.

我們確實期待 ADR。

We're seeing a little bit of pressure on ADRs tied to the macro.

我們看到與宏觀相關的 ADR 面臨一些壓力。

We're seeing it tied to 2 things.

我們看到它與兩件事有關。

One, we are seeing a little bit less international travel into certain cities.

第一，我們看到進入某些城市的國際旅行有所減少。

And those international travel transactions typically have a higher ADR.

這些國際旅行交易通常具有更高的 ADR。

And also, we are seeing some local pricing pressure as well impacting the ADR.

此外，我們還看到一些當地定價壓力也在影響 ADR。

So that's the story between room night growth and gross bookings on a like-for-like basis between the first quarter.

因此，這就是第一季度間間夜增長與總預訂量之間的相似情況。

And then, just to recap, again, on what we said on the fourth quarter.

然後，再次回顧一下我們在第四季度所說的話。

We were expecting to get some deleverage from the performance marketing channels.

我們期望從績效營銷渠道中獲得一些去槓桿化。

And we got a little bit of leverage.

我們得到了一點影響力。

That's because there was just less volume there than we expected, but we were pleased with the ROIs.

那是因為那裡的交易量比我們預期的要少，但我們對投資回報率感到滿意。

And we're also pleased with the share that we maintained in those performance marketing channels.

我們也很高興我們在這些績效營銷渠道中保持的份額。

So it's really a function of volume we saw in the channel as opposed to anything else.

所以它實際上是我們在頻道中看到的音量的函數，而不是其他任何東西。

Got you.

明白了

And there weren't other channels that you thought you could have spent into when you weren't getting that volume or is there an issue around timing there?

當你沒有得到那個數量時，你認為你沒有其他渠道可以投入，或者那裡的時間有問題嗎？

Look, we're always looking at every way we can spend money to bring in growth.

看，我們一直在尋找可以花錢實現增長的各種方式。

And we're always looking at what's the ROI for it.

我們一直在關注它的投資回報率是多少。

What do we think the long-term benefit is going to be?

我們認為長期利益是什麼？

What's it do for the brand?

對品牌有什麼作用？

All things we've talked about in the past about that.

我們過去談論過的所有事情。

We're pleased with the way things were at that point.

我們對當時的情況感到滿意。

And then really, just to kind of put those 2 points back together again.

然後真的，只是為了將這兩點重新組合在一起。

If you think about it, we did better than we expected in the Q4 on room nights growth.

如果你仔細想想，我們在第四季度的間夜增長方面比我們預期的要好。

And as I just said, we got a little bit less volume from the performance marketing channel.

正如我剛才所說，我們從績效營銷渠道獲得的銷量略有下降。

So the fact that we were able to beat our room night growth guidance for the quarter and an important channel for us was a little less volume than we expected, I think that's a good thing.

因此，我們能夠超過我們本季度的間夜增長指導，並且對我們來說是一個重要渠道，但銷量比我們預期的要少一些，我認為這是一件好事。

Therefore, we were able to still lean in elsewhere and do better than we had told you we thought we might do.

因此，我們仍然能夠依靠其他地方並做得比我們告訴你我們認為我們可能做的更好。

Our next question is from Brent Thill from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

Just back to the growth initiatives for '19.

回到 19 年的增長計劃。

I'm just curious if you could help us prioritize if you had to weight each of the initiatives, where the biggest weight goes and the biggest investments in descending order.

我只是想知道，如果您必須對每項舉措進行權衡，您是否可以幫助我們確定優先級，其中權重最大的地方和最大的投資按降序排列。

If you can just give us a high-level view, that would be very helpful.

如果你能給我們一個高層次的觀點，那將非常有幫助。

Yes.

是的。

I don't think we're going to be able to give you more color.

我不認為我們能夠給你更多的顏色。

The ones we listed out are the important ones.

我們列出的是重要的。

And one thing I'll make a point of is that we set up a budget.

我要強調的一件事是我們制定了預算。

We think where it's going to be for the year and we put it out and then we start actually executing.

我們考慮了這一年的發展方向，然後將其發布，然後我們開始實際執行。

And as you go throughout a year, you may notice some things are performing better than other things where you want to put more money into.

當你經歷一年時，你可能會注意到有些事情比你想投入更多資金的其他事情表現得更好。

And things that are not working as well and you pull that back.

而那些效果不佳的東西，你會把它拉回來。

So even if I were to give color, say, okay, this is as of this moment, here's where we're going to spend.

所以即使我要給顏色，說，好吧，這就是現在，這就是我們要花的地方。

It's still not going to be that helpful because these things, I know, will change as the environment changes.

它仍然不會那麼有用，因為我知道這些東西會隨著環境的變化而變化。

And Brent, just to kind of give you a little bit of color, I can tell you which is the smallest of the 3 areas.

布倫特，只是為了給你一點顏色，我可以告訴你哪個是 3 個區域中最小的。

We told you that there was going to be some impact you see on the branding line, some impact you see on the revenue line, some impact you see on the personnel line.

我們告訴過您，您會在品牌線上看到一些影響，在收入線上看到一些影響，在人員線上看到一些影響。

Well, the personnel line is, by far, the smallest of those 3. The other 2 are the major spend areas.

好吧，到目前為止，人事線是這 3 條中最小的一條。另外 2 條是主要支出領域。

And the personnel increase are really those people we're adding to support those growth initiatives.

人員增加實際上是我們為支持這些增長計劃而增加的人員。

And Glenn, just a quick follow-up.

格倫，只是快速跟進。

If Europe continues to lag a little bit longer than you would like, can you just give us a sense of how you think about the alternative opportunities to counter that, what's happening, how you think through that for the back half of the year?

如果歐洲繼續滯後的時間比您希望的要長一點，您能否告訴我們您如何考慮應對這種情況的替代機會，正在發生什麼，您如何看待今年下半年的情況？

Yes.

是的。

So, we believe that areas of slowdown can be great opportunities to gain share, develop loyalty, increase your value to your supplier partners.

因此，我們相信放緩的領域可能是獲得份額、培養忠誠度、增加您對供應商合作夥伴的價值的絕佳機會。

When things start getting a little bit slower, our hotel partners are looking for getting demand wherever they can.

當事情開始變得有點慢時，我們的酒店合作夥伴正在尋找盡可能多的需求。

They look for that incremental.

他們尋找增量。

And they want to be able to say, can you supply somebody in this bed?

他們想說，你能提供這張床上的人嗎？

And as you know, hotels have high fixed costs.

如您所知，酒店的固定成本很高。

They need to get that person to help hit their bottom line or get as close as they can to make a breakeven environment.

他們需要讓那個人幫助他們達到底線或盡可能接近以創造收支平衡的環境。

I've had the fortune of going through some of these in the past.

我過去有幸經歷過其中一些。

I've been with the company now -- it's now more than 19 years.

我現在已經在公司工作了——現在已經超過 19 年了。

So we've been through this before.

所以我們以前經歷過這個。

And we've been able to add value in the past.

我們過去已經能夠增加價值。

And I suspect, if things do slow down a bit, that we can position ourselves in a way that as we come out, we'll be even stronger.

而且我懷疑，如果事情確實放慢了一點，我們可以以一種方式定位自己，當我們出來時，我們會變得更加強大。

Our next question is from Justin Patterson from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Justin Patterson。

I appreciate the commentary around the payment platform earlier and then providing a more frictionless experience.

我很欣賞早些時候圍繞支付平台的評論，然後提供了更順暢的體驗。

My question is, as you layer in more of these services, how do you think about really making consumers aware of all of these new features in the app?

我的問題是，隨著您加入更多此類服務，您如何真正讓消費者了解應用程序中的所有這些新功能？

And in turn, how does that change kind of your view of LTV over the long term?

反過來，從長遠來看，這會如何改變您對 LTV 的看法？

Yes.

是的。

That is a good point.

這是一個好點。

Because as we point out, just having a great service, a great product, that's not very helpful if people don't know about it.

因為正如我們指出的那樣，僅僅擁有優質的服務、優質的產品，如果人們不了解，那也沒什麼用。

One of the great things, as people become more mobile savvy and as they're using their mobile devices more and more, and you're able to push opportunities to them or be able to communicate more with them, you're able to demonstrate what the value can be by going through our system.

一件很棒的事情是，隨著人們越來越精通移動設備並且越來越多地使用他們的移動設備，並且您能夠將機會推給他們或能夠與他們進行更多交流，您能夠證明通過我們的系統可以產生什麼價值。

And we see this developing around the world, this concept of the super app type thing.

我們看到這個在世界範圍內發展，這個超級應用程序類型的概念。

And this is everything from all the way from the WeChat, which is completely -- so many different things you can do off that, to things that are a little bit not quite but our partner now with Grab is doing a lot of different stuff.

這是從微信一路走來的一切，它完全是——你可以做很多不同的事情，還有一些不太完全的事情，但我們現在與 Grab 的合作夥伴正在做很多不同的事情。

We need to make sure that our customers are aware of these great things.

我們需要確保我們的客戶了解這些偉大的事情。

I'm not as concerned though about being able to communicate what the value is.

我並不那麼擔心能夠傳達價值是什麼。

And I think we're going to be there when we set these things up.

而且我認為當我們設置這些東西時我們會在那裡。

As we continue to set them up, I think it's going to be fine.

隨著我們繼續設置它們，我認為一切都會好起來的。

Our next question is from Tom White from D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Tom White。戴維森。

Just one on, you talked about profitability of your alternative accommodation room nights.

剛剛，您談到了替代住宿間夜的盈利能力。

I think you said solidly profitable.

我想你說的是穩賺不賠。

But, Glenn, you kind of called out some of the higher costs for that relative to the traditional hotel business.

但是，格倫，相對於傳統的酒店業務，你有點提到了一些更高的成本。

I also remember that in the past you've talked about the potential for technologies like AI and better automation to reduce your OpEx per room night.

我還記得，過去您曾談到人工智能和更好的自動化等技術在降低每房晚運營支出方面的潛力。

Is that something that should help drive kind of the EBITDA per room night for alternative to be more in line with traditional hotel over time or will that always kind of be structurally lower?

隨著時間的推移，替代方案是否應該有助於推動每間客房的 EBITDA 與傳統酒店保持一致，或者在結構上總是會更低？

So firstly, I just want to make sure we're on the same page.

所以首先，我只想確保我們在同一頁面上。

I said nicely profitable.

我說很好賺錢。

That was the word I used, not solidly.

那是我用的詞，不是堅定的。

But I believe that all new types of technology that we're developing are going to reduce that cost over time for both non-hotel accommodations and hotel accommodations.

但我相信，隨著時間的推移，我們正在開發的所有新型技術都會降低非酒店住宿和酒店住宿的成本。

And it's interesting which ones will help the most fastest.

有趣的是哪些幫助最快。

I don't know the answer to that.

我不知道答案。

I do know though that some of the things that we see, even right now in terms of lowering our customer service costs because we do have more customer service contacts with our non-hotel accommodations area.

我確實知道我們看到的一些事情，即使是現在就降低我們的客戶服務成本而言，因為我們確實與我們的非酒店住宿區域有更多的客戶服務聯繫。

This is an area where we probably will get a benefit more there than we would in hotels, but there could be other example that go the other way.

在這個領域，我們可能會比在酒店獲得更多的好處，但也可能有其他的例子。

Fact is, though, one of the benefits for our company, having the size and scale that we have, the ability to go out, hire lots of really smart AI-type people, help develop technologies that we can then put into our platform, distribute throughout the world for all of our supplier partners, we're providing a value that they can't do on their own.

然而，事實是我們公司的好處之一，擁有我們所擁有的規模和規模，能夠走出去，僱傭很多真正聰明的 AI 型人才，幫助開發技術，然後我們可以將這些技術投入我們的平台，為我們所有的供應商合作夥伴在世界各地分銷，我們正在提供他們無法獨自完成的價值。

That adds to the reason why they connect to us.

這增加了他們與我們聯繫的原因。

That's the reason why they give us the info.

這就是他們向我們提供信息的原因。

That's the reason why they want to work with us.

這就是他們想與我們合作的原因。

That's something that we do that they can't do as well, particularly somebody who is not a multibillion-dollar global chain.

這是我們做的事情，他們做不到，尤其是那些不是價值數十億美元的全球連鎖店的人。

If you're not one of those, you're definitely not going to be able to play in that game.

如果您不是其中之一，您肯定無法參加該遊戲。

We bring that to them.

我們把它帶給他們。

Our next question is from Jed Kelly from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默的傑德凱利。

Just where is the company's strategy around some of the for by-owner managed inventory that's sort of, I guess, more frictional and what's the overall strategy?

公司圍繞某些由所有者管理的庫存的策略在哪裡，我猜，這種策略更具摩擦性，總體策略是什麼？

And then you signed an agreement with Naver a couple of months ago.

然後你幾個月前與 Naver 簽署了一項協議。

Have you seen an uplift in that agreement and since you started that partnership?

自從您開始建立夥伴關係以來，您是否看到該協議有所提升？

I'll answer the second one.

我會回答第二個。

I haven't kept up with the details of that so I'm going to just have to pass on that one.

我沒有跟上它的細節，所以我只需要傳遞那個。

I think that if it was significant right now, though, I'd know.

不過，我認為如果它現在很重要，我就會知道。

So that's one.

這就是一個。

Let's go with the second thing.

讓我們來看看第二件事。

Any type of non-hotel accommodation, whether it be a single home that is operated by a mom-and-pop that do it once a year for 1 week, all the way up to very sophisticated players who have multiple units and are working with multiple distribution channels, we want to be able to get all these people onto the platform.

任何類型的非酒店住宿，無論是由夫妻經營的單身家庭，每年一次，為期一周，一直到擁有多個單元並與多個分銷渠道，我們希望能夠將所有這些人帶到平台上。

The thing that we want to do though is in the right order, in the right time, spend the right amount of money and obviously go for the more profitable ones first.

不過，我們想要做的事情是在正確的時間、正確的順序、花費正確的資金，顯然首先要獲得更有利可圖的資金。

So that for the ones you're mentioning, I think those are sometimes more costly.

因此，對於您提到的那些，我認為它們有時成本更高。

We got a significant number of sophisticated owners to deal with to get them onto the platform, but we'll get to them all, eventually.

我們有大量經驗豐富的所有者需要處理，以便將他們帶到平台上，但我們最終會接觸到他們所有人。

So I want to thank everybody for the call.

所以我要感謝大家的電話。

In summary, I am very pleased with our performance in 2018 as we met many important financial and strategic goals.

總而言之，我對我們在 2018 年的表現感到非常滿意，因為我們實現了許多重要的財務和戰略目標。

And I'm truly excited about our upcoming key investments for 2019 as we position the company for long-term growth.

我對我們即將在 2019 年進行的關鍵投資感到非常興奮，因為我們將公司定位為長期增長。

And finally, I want to thank everyone who made 2018 such a successful year, including our supplier and marketing partners, our now more than 24,000 employees distributed across more than 300 offices around the world, and most of all our traveler customers who are out there being what we call our new advertising campaign, the bookers, the doers, the people out there exploring the world.

最後，我要感謝所有讓 2018 年變得如此成功的人，包括我們的供應商和營銷合作夥伴，我們現在分佈在全球 300 多個辦事處的 24,000 多名員工，以及我們大部分的旅行者客戶就是我們所說的新廣告活動，預訂者，實干家，探索世界的人們。

And by doing this, we're making the world a better place.

通過這樣做，我們正在讓世界變得更美好。

Good night.

晚安。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This concludes the program.

程序到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。