使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Allbirds Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
女士們先生們,下午好,歡迎來到 Allbirds 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Katina Metzidakis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development at Allbirds. Ma'am, you may begin.
現在我想把電話轉給 Allbirds 投資者關係和業務發展副總裁 Katina Metzidakis。女士,您可以開始了。
Katina Metzidakis - VP of IR & Business Development
Katina Metzidakis - VP of IR & Business Development
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are Joey Zwillinger and Tim Brown, Allbirds' Co-Founders and Co-CEOs; and Mike Bufano, Allbirds' Chief Financial Officer.
大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。今天和我一起打電話的是 Allbirds 的聯合創始人兼聯合首席執行官 Joey Zwillinger 和 Tim Brown;和 Allbirds 的首席財務官 Mike Bufano。
Before we start, I'd like to remind you that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about our financial outlook, including cash flow and adjusted EBITDA expectations, Q1 guidance targets, impact and duration of external headwinds, simplification initiatives, strategic transformation plan and related planned efforts, go-to-market strategy, expected profitability and cost savings, product plans and expectations and other matters referenced in our earnings release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2022, for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results.
在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,我們今天將做出某些符合聯邦證券法意義的前瞻性聲明,包括關於我們財務前景的聲明,包括現金流量和調整後的 EBITDA 預期、第一季度指導目標、外部逆風的影響和持續時間、簡化舉措、戰略轉型計劃和相關計劃工作、上市戰略、預期盈利能力和成本節約、產品計劃和預期以及我們今天發布的收益報告中提到的其他事項。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。另請注意,這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見,我們沒有義務修改任何陳述以反映本次電話會議後發生的變化。請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件,包括我們截至 2022 年 9 月 30 日的季度 10-Q 表季度報告,以更詳細地描述可能影響我們業績的風險因素。
Also, during this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures that adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. These non-GAAP items should be used in addition to and not as a substitute for any GAAP results. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures to the extent reasonably available in today's earnings release.
此外,在這次電話會議中,我們將討論調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響的非 GAAP 財務措施。這些非 GAAP 項目應該用於補充而不是替代任何 GAAP 結果。在今天的收益發布中合理可用的範圍內,您將找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息,以及這些非 GAAP 措施與其最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的調節。
During today's call, we will also be referring to our active customers. Active customers are defined as the total number of unique customers who have made at least one purchase in the preceding 12-month period, measured from the last date of such period. The supplemental slide presentation is also available in the Investors section of Allbird's website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們還將提到我們的活躍客戶。活躍客戶的定義是在過去 12 個月內至少進行過一次購買的唯一客戶總數,從該期間的最後一天開始計算。補充幻燈片演示文稿也可在 Allbird 網站的投資者部分找到。
Now I'll turn the call over to Joey to begin the formal remarks.
現在我將電話轉給喬伊開始正式發言。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Thanks, Katina. And good afternoon, everyone. 2022 came to a challenging close as we ended the year below our guidance range, ending the year with nearly $300 million in net revenue, representing 7% year-over-year growth or 10% excluding $8 million impact related to FX. Our adjusted EBITDA for the year was negative $60 million, which includes a $17 million impact, primarily associated with the previously announced discontinuation of certain first-generation apparel. Like the industry, we were impacted by weak consumer demand, but we also made some strategic and executional missteps that impacted results.
謝謝,卡蒂娜。大家下午好。 2022 年結束時充滿挑戰,因為我們在年底時低於我們的指導範圍,年底淨收入接近 3 億美元,同比增長 7% 或 10%,不包括與外匯相關的 800 萬美元影響。我們今年調整後的 EBITDA 為負 6000 萬美元,其中包括 1700 萬美元的影響,主要與之前宣布的某些第一代服裝的停產有關。與行業一樣,我們受到消費者需求疲軟的影響,但我們也犯了一些影響結果的戰略和執行失誤。
The most important thing we want you to hear from us today is that we know we need to improve performance, in particular, our path towards elevated and sustained operating margins, and the set of actions we will outline today strive to do just that. We're announcing new transformation initiatives designed to get the business back on track with an emphasis on profitable growth. But before we talk about where we're going, let's talk about how we got here.
我們今天希望您從我們這裡聽到的最重要的事情是,我們知道我們需要提高績效,特別是我們實現更高和持續運營利潤率的道路,以及我們今天將概述的一系列行動,努力做到這一點。我們正在宣布新的轉型計劃,旨在讓業務重回正軌,重點放在盈利增長上。但在我們談論我們要去哪里之前,讓我們先談談我們是如何到達這裡的。
In our first full year as a public company, we made important progress. We launched new materials innovations such as SwiftFoam and Plant Leather; built third-party selling relationships with Nordstrom, REI, SCHEELS and DICK'S Sporting Goods; executed on our simplification initiative; and added key leadership at the management and board level. And we did all of this while remaining true to the sustainability principles upon which we were founded. These achievements will be important to our future success.
作為上市公司的第一個完整年度,我們取得了重要進展。我們推出了 SwiftFoam 和 Plant Leather 等新材料創新;與 Nordstrom、REI、SCHEELS 和 DICK'S Sporting Goods 建立了第三方銷售關係;根據我們的簡化計劃執行;並在管理層和董事會層面增加了關鍵領導層。我們在做到這一切的同時,仍然忠於我們賴以成立的可持續發展原則。這些成就對我們未來的成功至關重要。
However, in this journey, we also made some missteps. First, we over-emphasized products that extended beyond our core DNA. And as a result, some products and colors have had narrower appeal than expected. Because we were spending significant time and resources on these new products that did not resonate well, we underinvested in our core consumers' favorite products. Finally, we did not increase our brand awareness to the level that we anticipated. In essence, over the past couple of years, we shifted our focus away from our core consumer, and we must refocus sharply on this large and attractive group.
然而,在這段旅程中,我們也犯了一些錯誤。首先,我們過分強調超越我們核心 DNA 的產品。因此,一些產品和顏色的吸引力比預期的要小。因為我們在這些沒有引起很好共鳴的新產品上花費了大量時間和資源,所以我們在核心消費者最喜歡的產品上投資不足。最後,我們沒有將品牌知名度提高到預期的水平。從本質上講,在過去的幾年裡,我們將注意力從核心消費者身上轉移了,我們必須重新將注意力集中在這個龐大而有吸引力的群體上。
Taking a look at Q4 specifically, this dynamic was exacerbated by the fact that the final weeks of December were exceptionally promotional and we did not sufficiently promote to meet consumers' expectations. As a result, Q4 was the first quarter of negative growth in our history. We are disappointed with these results. And we know that as we look ahead, the status quo is not enough.
具體看一下第 4 季度,由於 12 月的最後幾週促銷活動異常激烈,而我們沒有充分促銷來滿足消費者的期望,這一事實加劇了這種動態。因此,第四季度是我們歷史上第一個出現負增長的季度。我們對這些結果感到失望。我們知道,展望未來,現狀是不夠的。
In response to these challenges, today, we are outlining 4 areas of focus as part of the strategic transformation designed to drive growth, expand gross margin and transition to an asset and OpEx-light model that will enable us to reconnect with our core consumers and meet new consumers in a capital-efficient manner. To support this effort, we hired a Chief Transformation Officer named Jared Fix at the end of last year. Jared brings significant experience driving operational improvement across organizations and consumer-facing industries. Importantly, the initiatives we are announcing today represent the first step, and we will continue to evolve as we chart the path forward.
為了應對這些挑戰,今天,我們概述了 4 個重點領域,作為戰略轉型的一部分,旨在推動增長、擴大毛利率並過渡到資產和 OpEx-light 模式,這將使我們能夠與核心消費者重新建立聯繫,以資本高效的方式結識新消費者。為了支持這項工作,我們在去年年底聘請了一位名叫 Jared Fix 的首席轉型官。 Jared 帶來了推動跨組織和麵向消費者的行業的運營改進的重要經驗。重要的是,我們今天宣布的舉措只是第一步,我們將在規劃前進道路的過程中繼續發展。
There are 4 key areas of focus: one, reignite product and brand with a more focused product strategy that will enable us to reconnect with our core consumer and better appeal to new consumers; two, slow the pace of Allbirds store openings in the U.S. and continue to partner with third-party customers to enhance brand awareness and drive sales; three, evaluate transition.
有 4 個重點關注領域:第一,通過更專注的產品戰略重振產品和品牌,使我們能夠重新與核心消費者建立聯繫並更好地吸引新消費者;二、放慢Allbirds在美國開店的步伐,繼續與第三方客戶合作,提升品牌知名度,拉動銷量;三、評估轉型。
(technical difficulty)
(技術難度)
And four, enhance growth and operating margins by building upon and further accelerating the cost and cash optimization work we began in mid-2022. I'll now dive into each.
第四,通過進一步加快我們在 2022 年年中開始的成本和現金優化工作來提高增長和營業利潤率。我現在將深入探討每一個。
The first initiative centers on reconnecting with our core consumer and driving brand momentum through product and marketing. Just 6 years ago, we created an amazing brand, which achieved an incredible level of commercial success due to our unique value proposition: thoughtfully designed naturally derived, comfortable athleisure footwear. Roughly 2 years ago and after a period of considerable growth, we made a decision to diversify our product beyond the core DNA of what has made us one of the most beloved brands in footwear in an effort to reach a younger fashion-forward and performance-oriented consumer.
第一項舉措的核心是與我們的核心消費者重新建立聯繫,並通過產品和營銷推動品牌勢頭。就在 6 年前,我們創建了一個了不起的品牌,由於我們獨特的價值主張,該品牌取得了令人難以置信的商業成功:精心設計的自然衍生、舒適的運動休閒鞋。大約 2 年前,在經歷了一段相當長的增長期後,我們決定使我們的產品多樣化,超越使我們成為鞋類最受歡迎品牌之一的核心 DNA,以努力實現更年輕的時尚前衛和性能-面向消費者。
We over-invested in seasonal trend colors and new silhouettes like the Pacer and Flyer. And while we created a number of breakthrough material innovations, we have yet to commercialize them effectively. And while these products did succeed in attracting new consumers to the brand, they have lower conversion and sell-throughs in our classic styles across channels. Ultimately, we have come to recognize that our overinvestment on newness came at the expense of focus on consumers, who are loyal to our brands and on nurturing our core franchises, such as the Runner and Dasher.
我們過度投資於季節性趨勢色彩和 Pacer 和 Flyer 等新款式。雖然我們創造了許多突破性的材料創新,但我們尚未將它們有效地商業化。雖然這些產品確實成功地吸引了新消費者加入該品牌,但它們在我們跨渠道的經典款式中的轉化率和銷售率較低。最終,我們已經認識到,我們對新事物的過度投資是以犧牲對消費者的關注為代價的,他們忠於我們的品牌並培育我們的核心特許經營權,例如 Runner 和 Dasher。
We recently conducted a deep consumer study, which confirms some key insights about our core consumer and found that the fundamentals of brand are very strong. For context, our target consumers are fairly evenly split by gender, though our core consumer actually skews female relative to industry peers and are between the ages of 30 to 40. One key takeaway from this study is that we have an opportunity to improve conversion with female customers through a dedicated product offering focused on meeting her needs. This is a substantial growth opportunity as we address her need moving forward.
我們最近進行了一項深入的消費者研究,證實了對我們核心消費者的一些關鍵見解,並發現品牌的基本面非常強大。就背景而言,我們的目標消費者在性別上相當平均,儘管我們的核心消費者實際上相對於行業同行偏向女性,並且年齡在 30 到 40 歲之間。這項研究的一個重要收穫是,我們有機會通過以下方式提高轉化率通過專注於滿足女性需求的專用產品來吸引女性客戶。這是一個巨大的增長機會,因為我們解決了她前進的需求。
Overall, our consumers lead an active lifestyle, are adventurous and travel the world. They care about the environment and making a positive impact. They tend to be affluent and are partial to premium products and brands and are well-weighted to the general population in terms of geography.
總的來說,我們的消費者過著積極的生活方式,喜歡冒險並環遊世界。他們關心環境並產生積極影響。他們往往很富裕,偏愛優質產品和品牌,並且在地理方面對普通人群的權重很高。
Importantly, our Net Promoter Score was the second highest in our peer group. We continue to have a strong level of brand loyalty and satisfaction with 96% of our shoppers in the past year in the survey stating they would consider purchasing from Allbirds again. Quality, comfort and design of the 3 key reasons why our consumers recommend our brand. In fact, the primary reason consumers did not make another purchase was that the product they wanted were not available, which is we believe a byproduct of this assortment expansion at the expense of core franchise development. Again, this represents a huge opportunity.
重要的是,我們的淨推薦值在同行中排名第二。我們繼續保持高水平的品牌忠誠度和滿意度,在過去一年的調查中,96% 的購物者表示他們會考慮再次從 Allbirds 購買商品。質量、舒適度和設計是我們的消費者推薦我們品牌的 3 個主要原因。事實上,消費者沒有再次購買的主要原因是沒有他們想要的產品,我們認為這是以核心特許經營開發為代價的這種品類擴張的副產品。這再次代表了一個巨大的機會。
However, this doesn't mean that newness is irrelevant. Yet while we update classic styles in the near term, thoughtful innovation and new product introductions beyond our core with more measured buys and marketing investment will remain key to unlocking our full growth potential.
然而,這並不意味著新鮮感是無關緊要的。然而,雖然我們在短期內更新經典款式,但深思熟慮的創新和超越我們核心的新產品推出以及更多有節制的購買和營銷投資仍然是釋放我們全部增長潛力的關鍵。
One final insight I will share from the study is how we fit into consumers' lives and the white space in the market that we will target. Specifically, we found that products we have categorized as performance can more effectively be positioned by promoting an active lifestyle as opposed to a technical performance offering. We have already begun to recalibrate our assortment to increase focus on core franchise management, embracing our super natural North Star and deliberately connecting this to the consumer, who we have frankly paid too little attention to, over the last 2 years.
我將從這項研究中分享的最後一個見解是我們如何適應消費者的生活以及我們將瞄準的市場空白。具體來說,我們發現我們歸類為性能的產品可以通過促進積極的生活方式而不是技術性能產品來更有效地定位。我們已經開始重新調整我們的產品組合,以更加關注核心特許經營管理,擁抱我們超自然的北極星,並有意將其與消費者聯繫起來,坦率地說,在過去的兩年裡,我們對消費者的關注太少了。
We expect to make significant strides by offering a more curated seasonal color offering, utilizing a gender-specific color segmentation. We will also leverage our various materials platforms to create embellishments across core franchises. In total, we believe these actions will offer the freshness our consumers want while increasing SKU productivity. However, during this transition, we do expect to face margin pressure as we utilize markdowns to ensure we recalibrate the line and move into 2024 with a cleaner inventory position.
我們希望通過使用針對特定性別的顏色細分來提供更精心策劃的季節性顏色產品,從而取得重大進展。我們還將利用我們的各種材料平台在核心特許經營中創造裝飾。總的來說,我們相信這些行動將提供我們的消費者想要的新鮮度,同時提高 SKU 的生產率。然而,在此過渡期間,我們確實預計將面臨利潤壓力,因為我們利用降價來確保我們重新校準生產線並以更清潔的庫存狀況進入 2024 年。
Our focused product strategy will be complemented by increased investments into mid-funnel brand marketing, embracing our disruptor position and differentiated brand purpose that is below our target consumer. We will create values-aligned products and brand partnerships to better integrate our marketing investments, increase awareness growth and drive sales.
我們專注的產品戰略將通過增加對中渠道品牌營銷的投資來補充,擁抱我們的顛覆者地位和低於我們目標消費者的差異化品牌目標。我們將創建價值一致的產品和品牌合作夥伴關係,以更好地整合我們的營銷投資,提高知名度並推動銷售。
And we will focus the majority of these marketing efforts against core franchises. We estimate Allbirds still has less than 15% aided brand awareness in the U.S., which gives us an incredible opportunity reinforced by our consumer insights work. While we are excited about these efforts across products and brands, these initiatives will take time to materialize, given the long development lead times in our industry.
我們將把這些營銷工作的大部分集中在核心特許經營權上。我們估計 Allbirds 在美國的輔助品牌知名度仍然不到 15%,這為我們的消費者洞察工作提供了一個難以置信的機會。雖然我們對跨產品和品牌的這些努力感到興奮,但鑑於我們行業的開發準備時間很長,這些舉措需要時間才能實現。
Our second initiative is focused on distribution in the U.S. as we work to make stores a more strategic and effective lever to grow our brand. After a year in which we opened 19 new stores in the U.S., we are significantly slowing the pace of new store openings in 2023. This year, we plan to open 3 stores in the U.S. against leases signed in early 2022 and rebalance our focus from opening new stores towards driving profitability and new customer acquisition from our existing fleet, including the roughly half of our U.S. stores that have been opened for less than a year.
我們的第二個舉措是專注於美國的分銷,因為我們致力於讓門店成為我們品牌發展的更具戰略性和更有效的槓桿。在我們在美國開設 19 家新店的一年之後,我們將在 2023 年顯著放慢新店開業的步伐。今年,我們計劃根據 2022 年初簽署的租約在美國開設 3 家門店,並重新平衡我們的重點從開設新店以提高盈利能力並從我們現有的車隊中獲取新客戶,其中包括大約一半的美國開業不到一年的商店。
We continue to view stores, both owned by Allbirds and leveraged through third-party partnerships, as critical to reaching new consumers and increasing penetration of valuable omnichannel consumers. Our insights work over the past months has demonstrated that the shoppers in our stores are less price-resistant and continue to drive the omnichannel shopping behavior, our most profitable consumer journey. However, we must drive more foot traffic to our stores and increase engagement once shoppers enter our four walls.
我們繼續認為 Allbirds 擁有並通過第三方合作夥伴利用的商店對於吸引新消費者和提高有價值的全渠道消費者的滲透率至關重要。我們過去幾個月的洞察工作表明,我們商店的購物者對價格的抵抗力較低,並繼續推動全渠道購物行為,這是我們最有利可圖的消費者旅程。但是,一旦購物者進入我們的四面牆,我們必須吸引更多的客流量到我們的商店並增加參與度。
We plan to drive traffic through an increased store marketing investment, including omnichannel opportunities focused on our most engaged customers. Additionally, we intend to increase conversion through region-specific merchandising, improved store navigation and enhanced associate training so that every consumer entering our stores enjoys an experience matched to their high intent.
我們計劃通過增加商店營銷投資來增加流量,包括專注於我們最活躍的客戶的全渠道機會。此外,我們打算通過針對特定區域的商品陳列、改進商店導航和加強店員培訓來提高轉化率,以便每位進入我們商店的消費者都能享受與其高度意圖相匹配的體驗。
To support this effort, we have appointed a new head of stores for North America with over 15 years of retail experience working with brands such as Athleta and Under Armour. She's already making steady progress against our most significant areas of opportunity. Like our direct store channel, we believe our third-party strategy helps us achieve similar objectives, including increasing brand awareness and adding new consumers to our ecosystem. We are encouraged by early activations in REI, DICK'S Sporting Goods, Nordstrom and SCHEEL, which have demonstrated solid sell-through core franchises.
為了支持這項工作,我們任命了一位新的北美門店負責人,他在 Athleta 和 Under Armour 等品牌擁有超過 15 年的零售經驗。她已經在我們最重要的機會領域取得穩步進展。與我們的直營店渠道一樣,我們相信我們的第三方戰略有助於我們實現類似的目標,包括提高品牌知名度和為我們的生態系統增加新的消費者。我們對 REI、DICK'S Sporting Goods、Nordstrom 和 SCHEEL 的早期激活感到鼓舞,它們展示了穩固的銷售核心特許經營權。
Looking ahead, we plan to continue our measured expansion within our current partners, and we'll evaluate expanding to new premium partners in the future. Though still early -- in the early days, we feel good about the progress in this channel and the relationships we are building with partners and consumers.
展望未來,我們計劃繼續在現有合作夥伴內部進行有計劃的擴張,並且我們將評估在未來擴展到新的高級合作夥伴。雖然還早——在早期,我們對這個渠道的進展以及我們與合作夥伴和消費者建立的關係感到滿意。
Our third initiative encompasses an evaluation of our international go-to-market strategy and could be the most significant shift of the 4 key focus areas. To be clear, international growth remains vital to achieving our long-term goals, but we believe a pivot in how we go to market may be necessary to reduce complexity and grow our international business with efficient use of OpEx and CapEx, creating greater flow-through to the bottom line. In many of the markets in which we operate, we have excellent brand positioning and solid growth, yet remains subscale. Japan is a great example of the strong brand position where we have seen more than 50% organic growth thus far in Q1. We believe that potentially transitioning the go-to-market strategy in certain markets to partnerships with distributors could unlock profitability and inventory efficiency in these regions while also reducing complexity in our U.S. headquarters.
我們的第三項舉措包括對我們的國際上市戰略的評估,這可能是 4 個重點領域中最重要的轉變。需要明確的是,國際增長對於實現我們的長期目標仍然至關重要,但我們認為,可能有必要調整我們進入市場的方式,以通過有效利用運營支出和資本支出來降低複雜性和發展我們的國際業務,從而創造更大的流量-直達底線。在我們運營的許多市場中,我們擁有出色的品牌定位和穩健的增長,但規模仍然較小。日本是強大品牌地位的一個很好的例子,到目前為止,我們在第一季度看到了超過 50% 的有機增長。我們認為,有可能將某些市場的上市戰略轉變為與分銷商的合作夥伴關係,可以釋放這些地區的盈利能力和庫存效率,同時降低我們美國總部的複雜性。
Said another way, we are ultimately seeking higher quality revenues even if that impacts sales growth in the short term. As we evaluate this go-to-market shift, we will speak to distributors with a long track record of embracing the core DNA of partner brands while effectively localizing into their markets. Even in regions where we may shift the distribution strategy, we will work to maintain the option to reclaim direct operations over time.
換句話說,我們最終尋求更高質量的收入,即使這會影響短期內的銷售增長。當我們評估這種進入市場的轉變時,我們將與在接受合作夥伴品牌的核心 DNA 的同時有效地本地化到他們的市場方面有著長期記錄的分銷商交談。即使在我們可能會改變分銷策略的地區,我們也會努力保持隨著時間的推移收回直接運營的選擇權。
The fourth and final initiative targets cost savings and capital efficiency. This builds upon and further accelerates the cost and cash optimization work we started in the middle of 2022. To highlight a few of these changes, we plan to fully transition footwear production to our new manufacturing partner in Vietnam by Q4 this year and are already seeing higher quality products with materially lower costs coming off the line. We have also enhanced our strategic sourcing program to drive increased profitability through optimized material costs. As we enhance SKU productivity with our sharpened focus on products that celebrate our core brand DNA, we expect additional cost benefit from downstream logistics.
第四個也是最後一個計劃旨在節約成本和提高資本效率。這建立在我們於 2022 年中期開始的成本和現金優化工作的基礎上,並進一步加速了這些工作。為了突出其中的一些變化,我們計劃在今年第四季度之前將鞋類生產完全轉移到我們在越南的新製造合作夥伴,並且已經看到質量更高、成本更低的產品即將下線。我們還加強了我們的戰略採購計劃,以通過優化材料成本來提高盈利能力。隨著我們更加關注彰顯我們核心品牌 DNA 的產品來提高 SKU 生產力,我們預計下游物流會帶來額外的成本效益。
We have identified several additional areas for SG&A savings and cash optimization opportunities, which Mike will walk through in a moment. To deliver against these initiatives, we have made a number of changes to our leadership team. We previously announced the expansion of Kate Ridley's role to encompass both brand and product. Kate has deep roots in the footwear industry, including more than 2 decades at Adidas. And we have already seen the impact of our experience as we recalibrate our product portfolio and integrated marketing approach.
我們已經確定了 SG&A 節省和現金優化機會的幾個額外領域,Mike 稍後將介紹這些領域。為了實現這些舉措,我們對領導團隊進行了一些調整。我們之前宣布擴大凱特·里德利 (Kate Ridley) 的職責,涵蓋品牌和產品。凱特在製鞋業有著深厚的根基,包括在阿迪達斯工作超過 2 年。當我們重新調整我們的產品組合和整合營銷方法時,我們已經看到了我們經驗的影響。
We have also eliminated our Chief Commercial Officer role and has shifted to a regional focus with an omnichannel North America structure reporting directly to executive management. On our Board of Directors, we welcome Ann Freeman back in August, an industry veteran with over 25 years of experience from Nike. And we recently added Eric Sprunk as a Board adviser, whose leadership in decades in the footwear industry, including his tenure as Nike's COO, are catalyzing positive momentum internally.
我們還取消了首席商務官的職位,轉為以區域為重點,採用全渠道北美結構,直接向執行管理層報告。在我們的董事會中,我們歡迎 Ann Freeman 於 8 月回歸,她是一位在 Nike 擁有超過 25 年經驗的行業資深人士。我們最近任命 Eric Sprunk 為董事會顧問,他在鞋類行業數十年的領導地位,包括擔任耐克首席運營官期間,正在內部促進積極的勢頭。
Finally, as we announced earlier today, this will be Mike's last earnings call as our CFO. I want to take a moment to thank him for his partnership with Tim and me, the executive leadership team and the Board throughout this process of becoming a public company just over a year ago. We appreciate all Mike has done in setting up a strong finance organization within the company and know he'll help ensure a smooth transition. Mike, it has been a pleasure working with you, and we wish you the very best.
最後,正如我們今天早些時候宣布的那樣,這將是邁克作為我們的首席財務官的最後一次財報電話會議。我想花點時間感謝他在一年多前成為一家上市公司的整個過程中與蒂姆和我、執行領導團隊和董事會的合作夥伴關係。我們感謝 Mike 在公司內部建立強大的財務組織所做的一切,並且知道他將幫助確保平穩過渡。邁克,很高興與你合作,我們祝你一切順利。
As we look ahead to Allbirds' next chapter, we're thrilled to announce that Annie Mitchell will join us as our CFO in late April. Annie is a proven finance executive who is wrapping up her role managing finance and insights for GymShark North America and was previously SVP of Finance and CFO of Adidas North America. Annie's deep functional expertise, paired with her industry experience, will be vital as we execute against our transformation strategy and deliver on our performance goals.
在展望 Allbirds 的下一章時,我們很高興地宣布 Annie Mitchell 將於 4 月下旬加入我們,擔任我們的首席財務官。 Annie 是一位久經考驗的財務主管,即將結束她在 GymShark North America 管理財務和洞察力的角色,之前曾擔任 Adidas North America 的財務高級副總裁和首席財務官。安妮深厚的職能專業知識,加上她的行業經驗,對於我們執行轉型戰略和實現績效目標至關重要。
We have continued to deepen our bench with talented executives, who bring extensive footwear industry experience, proven leadership capability and a hunger to drive improvement across our organization. Many of the changes I've outlined will take time, and 2023 will be a transition year, which should set us up to significantly improve profitability in 2024.
我們繼續深化人才梯隊,聘請才華橫溢的高管,他們帶來了豐富的鞋類行業經驗、久經考驗的領導能力以及推動整個組織改進的渴望。我概述的許多變化都需要時間,而 2023 年將是過渡年,這將使我們能夠在 2024 年顯著提高盈利能力。
Against the backdrop of our transformation work, most notably the timing and implications of potential changes to our international business, coupled with the uncertain macro environment, we are providing only quarterly guidance today. Year-to-date results have trended similar to Q4, with sales down in the high teens, coupled with gross margin erosion from price action we've taken, primarily on end of season sales. Excluding the impact of any potential international transition, over the course of 2023, we are not planning for any improvement in current demand trends. Similarly, we expect gross margin pressure to continue as we use markdowns at a more elevated level than is typical in order to enter 2024 with a healthy mix and size of inventory.
在我們轉型工作的背景下,最值得注意的是我們國際業務潛在變化的時機和影響,再加上不確定的宏觀環境,我們今天僅提供季度指導。年初至今的業績趨勢與第四季度相似,銷售額下降了十幾歲,再加上我們採取的價格行動(主要是季末銷售)導致毛利率下降。排除任何潛在國際轉型的影響,在 2023 年期間,我們不打算改善當前的需求趨勢。同樣,我們預計毛利率壓力將繼續存在,因為我們使用比通常更高水平的降價,以便以健康的庫存組合和規模進入 2024 年。
Overall, the strength of the Allbirds brand, coupled with our experienced and deeply committed team, gives us confidence in our ability to reaccelerate growth beginning in 2024. In the short term, we are laser-focused on managing cash and getting to profitability and expect the actions we're taking to help us capitalize on significant revenue and margin expansion opportunities in 2024. As we look further down the line, we expect to achieve cash flow profitability and positive adjusted EBITDA in 2025.
總體而言,Allbirds 品牌的實力,加上我們經驗豐富且高度敬業的團隊,使我們對從 2024 年開始重新加速增長的能力充滿信心。在短期內,我們將專注於管理現金和實現盈利,並期待我們正在採取的行動,以幫助我們在 2024 年利用重要的收入和利潤率擴張機會。隨著我們進一步展望未來,我們預計將在 2025 年實現現金流盈利和調整後的 EBITDA 為正。
We want you to know that management is fully aligned and energized by the opportunities to transform and reinvigorate our brand. As we work to achieve our goals, the members of our executive leadership team will not receive a 2022 performance-based bonus, and we have all reduced our 2023 base salaries. In addition, our company-wide 2023 incentive structure has been revised to closely align with the 4 initiatives I described.
我們想讓您知道,管理層已完全協調並因轉型和重振我們品牌的機會而充滿活力。在我們努力實現目標的過程中,我們的執行領導團隊成員將不會獲得 2022 年基於績效的獎金,並且我們都降低了 2023 年的基本工資。此外,我們對全公司 2023 年的激勵結構進行了修訂,以與我描述的 4 項舉措緊密結合。
Transformations like this take tremendous discipline and focus, and I want to specifically recognize the incredible members of the Allbirds flock for supporting this effort. Since day 1, Allbirds has had an incredible culture rooted in deeply held commitment to our business, our consumers and our products. As we've grown and evolved over the years, our goal to prove that comfort, great design and sustainability don't have to be mutually exclusive has remained at the center of everything we do. I know that this will continue in the months and years ahead.
像這樣的轉變需要極大的紀律和專注,我想特別感謝 Allbirds 中令人難以置信的成員,他們支持這項工作。從第一天起,Allbirds 就擁有一種令人難以置信的文化,這種文化植根於對我們的業務、我們的消費者和我們的產品的堅定承諾。隨著我們多年來的成長和發展,我們的目標是證明舒適、出色的設計和可持續性不必相互排斥,這一直是我們所做一切的核心。我知道這將在未來的幾個月和幾年內繼續下去。
With that, I'll turn it over to Mike to give additional details on Q4 and our plans for the year.
有了這個,我將把它交給邁克,提供有關第四季度和我們今年計劃的更多細節。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Thanks, Joey, both for the kind words and your partnership over the last 2 years. Allbirds is a special company with a unique mission, so this was not an easy decision on my part. I appreciate how you, Tim and the Board have been working closely with me in a highly collaborative way to facilitate a seamless transition.
感謝 Joey,感謝您在過去 2 年裡的客氣話和合作夥伴關係。 Allbirds 是一家特殊的公司,有著獨特的使命,所以這對我來說不是一個容易的決定。我感謝你、蒂姆和董事會一直以高度協作的方式與我密切合作,以促進無縫過渡。
Before walking through the P&L, I would like to highlight that we have added both a restructuring and an impairment line in the income statement. In 2022 in restructuring, we are capturing costs associated with our previously announced simplification initiatives. In impairment, we are reflecting a charge related to store assets in China that were impacted by COVID-related closures. Going forward, we plan to use the restructuring and impairment lines in the income statement to reflect costs associated with our strategic transformation.
在查看損益表之前,我想強調的是,我們在損益表中同時添加了重組和減值線。在 2022 年的重組中,我們正在計算與我們之前宣布的簡化計劃相關的成本。在減值方面,我們反映了與受 COVID 相關關閉影響的中國商店資產相關的費用。展望未來,我們計劃在損益表中使用重組和減值線來反映與我們的戰略轉型相關的成本。
Also, in light of the strategic transformation and in order to align with these expressed by members of the staff of the SEC following the receipt of a routine comment letter in December, we are no longer excluding from our non-GAAP measures the revenue and cost of revenue associated with the previously announced discontinuation of our first-generation apparel business. Our guidance targets for Q4 net revenue and adjusted EBITDA loss did exclude these items. The impact of this change, compared to our guidance targets, was an increase to Q4 revenue of $1.5 million, a decrease to Q4 gross profit of $3.5 million and an increase to Q4 adjusted EBITDA loss of $3.5 million.
此外,鑑於戰略轉型,並為了與 SEC 工作人員在 12 月收到例行評論信後所表達的一致,我們不再將收入和成本排除在我們的非 GAAP 衡量指標之外與先前宣布終止我們的第一代服裝業務相關的收入。我們對第四季度淨收入和調整後的 EBITDA 損失的指導目標確實不包括這些項目。與我們的指導目標相比,這一變化的影響是第四季度收入增加 150 萬美元,第四季度毛利潤減少 350 萬美元,第四季度調整後 EBITDA 損失增加 350 萬美元。
After factoring in the impact of this change, Q4 adjusted EBITDA was only slightly below guidance on an apples-to-apples basis. And that's a good transition to Q4, where the headline is that sales were disappointing, but we were able to offset most of that decline in the middle of the P&L, thanks to the positive impact of our simplification initiatives and tight cost management.
考慮到這一變化的影響後,第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 僅略低於同類基準的指導值。這是向第四季度的良好過渡,標題是銷售令人失望,但由於我們的簡化計劃和嚴格的成本管理產生了積極影響,我們能夠抵消 P&L 中期的大部分下降。
When we last spoke with you in early November, we identified potential headwinds and tailwinds as we headed into our peak season. At the time, Q4 to date sales have been trending negatively, but we believe that we could get back to flat as consumer spending patterns shifted to a more normalized holiday cadence and as our holiday marketing campaign, product news and promotions kicked into gear. After achieving strong results during Black Friday/Cyber Monday week, sales growth turned negative again over the last few weeks of the year. Joey outlined the drivers earlier, but I would like to provide more color on markdowns.
當我們在 11 月初最後一次與您交談時,我們確定了進入旺季時潛在的逆風和順風。當時,迄今為止,第四季度的銷售額一直呈負增長趨勢,但我們相信,隨著消費者支出模式轉向更正常的假期節奏,以及我們的假期營銷活動、產品新聞和促銷活動開始啟動,我們可以恢復平穩。在黑色星期五/網絡星期一周取得強勁業績後,銷售增長在今年最後幾週再次轉為負增長。 Joey 之前概述了驅動程序,但我想提供更多關於降價的顏色。
As a young and premium brand, we chose not to chase to the bottom with markdowns in Q4. Inclusive of elevated discounting in Q4, our full price sell-through was approximately 85% for the year, in line with our expectation of 80% to 85% full price sell-through and well above the industry average.
作為一個年輕的高端品牌,我們選擇在第四季度不通過降價追底。包括第四季度提高的折扣,我們全年的全價銷售率約為 85%,符合我們 80% 至 85% 的全價銷售率預期,遠高於行業平均水平。
Looking at Q4 sales through a customer lens, we experienced weaker-than-expected new customer acquisition and repeat purchase behavior, which resulted in an 11% decrease in active customers. From a geographic and channel lens, the U.S. business is weak, down 14%, driven by digital softness, which fully offset the positive impact of retail, which grew 8% in the quarter; and third party, which was a mid-single-digit percent of our sales mix in Q4.
從客戶角度來看第四季度的銷售情況,我們的新客戶獲取和重複購買行為低於預期,導致活躍客戶減少 11%。從地域和渠道的角度來看,美國業務疲軟,下降了 14%,受數字業務疲軟的推動,這完全抵消了零售業的積極影響,零售業在本季度增長了 8%;和第三方,這是我們第四季度銷售組合的中個位數百分比。
Again, we were able to make up most of the sales miss, thanks to the positive impact of our simplification initiatives and tight cost management. Going a little deeper. Gross margin was down versus Q4 2021, driven by the previously announced discontinuation of certain first-generation apparel as well as increased promotions and was partially offset by COGS savings related to our simplification initiatives. Indeed, since Q2 2022, when we announced our simplification initiatives, on a per unit basis, we have begun to see a mid-teens percent decrease in U.S. warehousing costs and a nearly 40% decrease in U.S. return processing costs.
同樣,由於我們的簡化舉措和嚴格的成本管理產生了積極影響,我們能夠彌補大部分銷售失誤。深入一點。毛利率與 2021 年第四季度相比有所下降,這是由於之前宣布停產某些第一代服裝以及促銷活動增加,部分被與我們的簡化舉措相關的銷售成本節省所抵消。事實上,自 2022 年第二季度我們宣布簡化計劃以來,按單位計算,我們已經開始看到美國倉儲成本下降了百分之十幾,美國退貨處理成本下降了近 40%。
In addition, the transition to our new manufacturing partner remains on track. The first few products have been transitioned, and we are seeing the expected savings and product cost out of the factory. We expect the savings to start showing up in the P&L in 2023 before fully flowing through in 2024.
此外,向我們新的製造合作夥伴的過渡仍在進行中。前幾個產品已經過渡,我們看到了預期的節省和出廠產品成本。我們預計節省的資金將在 2023 年開始出現在損益表中,然後在 2024 年完全流出。
Moving down the P&L. We chose to reduce marketing spend year-over-year in Q4 given the highly promotional holiday environment. Finally, as sales turn negative, we significantly reduced discretionary SG&A spend, which helped the quarter. Looking at 2022 as a whole, the corporate SG&A component of the simplification initiatives reduced run rate spend by approximately $5 million in 2022, in line with our expectations. We are on track to deliver the previously communicated target of $13 million to $15 million of annualized savings in 2023.
向下移動損益表。鑑於高度促銷的假期環境,我們選擇在第四季度同比減少營銷支出。最後,隨著銷售額轉為負值,我們大幅減少了可自由支配的 SG&A 支出,這對本季度有所幫助。從整個 2022 年來看,簡化計劃的企業 SG&A 部分在 2022 年將運行率支出減少了約 500 萬美元,這符合我們的預期。我們有望在 2023 年實現先前傳達的 1300 萬至 1500 萬美元年度節省目標。
Moving to our balance sheet. Inventory was down 8% sequentially from Q3, but up 9% year-over-year as a result of the slower sell-through of new products and colors launched in H2. That said, I do want to highlight that year-over-year inventory growth slowed every quarter this year. Cash burn was $13.6 million in the quarter, continuing the quarter-over-quarter trend of a slowing rate of cash burn. I'll share more about cash and inventory management in a moment as I walk through the financial impact of our strategic transformation.
轉到我們的資產負債表。由於下半年推出的新產品和顏色銷售放緩,庫存較第三季度環比下降 8%,但同比增長 9%。也就是說,我確實想強調的是,今年每個季度的庫存同比增長都在放緩。本季度現金消耗為 1360 萬美元,延續了現金消耗速度放緩的環比趨勢。在我介紹我們的戰略轉型的財務影響時,我將在稍後分享更多關於現金和庫存管理的信息。
Turning quickly to our Q1 guidance targets. We are targeting total company net revenue between $45 million and $50 million, a decrease of 20% to 28% year-over-year and down 9% to flat on a 2-year basis, and we are targeting an adjusted EBITDA loss of negative $29 million to negative $26 million.
快速轉向我們的第一季度指導目標。我們的目標是公司淨收入總額在 4500 萬美元至 5000 萬美元之間,同比下降 20% 至 28%,與 2 年相比下降 9% 至持平,我們的目標是調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為負2900 萬美元至負 2600 萬美元。
I'll now provide an overview of the financial implications of our strategic transformation. As Joey said earlier, we intend to significantly reduce operating complexity and costs in addition to focusing on higher-quality revenues. I'll take a few minutes to discuss the financial implications of each of our 4 key focus areas.
我現在將概述我們戰略轉型的財務影響。正如喬伊早些時候所說,除了專注於更高質量的收入外,我們還打算大幅降低運營複雜性和成本。我將花幾分鐘時間討論我們 4 個重點關注領域中每個領域的財務影響。
Regarding the first initiative centered on product and brand, there are 3 implications. One, we plan to spend additional U.S. marketing dollars on a year-over-year basis in 2023 to support our brand, including additional spend for store marketing. Two, over time, our sharpened focus on products that celebrate our core brand DNA should help improve SKU productivity. Three, given the time it will take to recalibrate our product line, in 2023, we anticipate that gross margin will be negatively impacted by significant discounting of the slow-moving products and colors we launched in H2 2022, including the potential for modestly above cost liquidation.
關於以產品和品牌為中心的第一項舉措,有 3 個含義。第一,我們計劃在 2023 年同比增加美國營銷資金來支持我們的品牌,包括商店營銷的額外支出。第二,隨著時間的推移,我們更加關注彰顯我們核心品牌 DNA 的產品,這應該有助於提高 SKU 的生產率。第三,考慮到重新調整我們的產品線所需的時間,到 2023 年,我們預計毛利率將受到我們在 2022 年下半年推出的滯銷產品和顏色的大幅折扣的負面影響,包括可能略高於成本清算。
We are committed to bringing down inventory through 2023 as part of this reset. We plan to measure the success of this initiative by tracking our aided brand awareness in the U.S. and the percent of our sales coming from core franchises and expect to provide periodic updates on how these metrics are trending.
作為此次重置的一部分,我們致力於在 2023 年之前降低庫存。我們計劃通過跟踪我們在美國的輔助品牌知名度和來自核心特許經營權的銷售額百分比來衡量該計劃的成功,並期望定期更新這些指標的趨勢。
Turning to the second initiative. We continue to believe that increased store-based distribution in the U.S. will allow us to grow brand awareness and acquire new customers in a way that leverages our marketing spend. Over the next 2 years, we plan to continue to grow our third-party business, and over the next 12 to 18 months, significantly slow the pace of new openings of all of our stores. Taken together, we expect this approach will likely be gross margin dilutive, adjusted EBITDA margin accretive and more capital and SG&A efficient. At the same time, we are focused on increasing productivity within our current store footprint, as Joey outlined earlier.
談到第二個倡議。我們仍然相信,在美國增加基於商店的分銷將使我們能夠以利用我們的營銷支出的方式提高品牌知名度並獲得新客戶。在接下來的 2 年裡,我們計劃繼續發展我們的第三方業務,並在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內,大幅放慢我們所有門店的新開張步伐。總而言之,我們預計這種方法可能會稀釋毛利率、增加調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率以及更高的資本和 SG&A 效率。與此同時,正如 Joey 之前概述的那樣,我們專注於提高我們當前門店足跡內的生產力。
In 2023, we expect this channel mix shift to be a drag on year-over-year gross margin. In 2023 and 2024, with fewer planned Allbirds store openings, we also anticipate lower CapEx spend and less SG&A drag from preopening and ramp-up expenses. We plan to measure the success of this second initiative by tracking Allbirds store operating metrics as well as our number of third-party doors.
到 2023 年,我們預計這種渠道組合轉變將拖累毛利率同比增長。在 2023 年和 2024 年,隨著 Allbirds 開店計劃的減少,我們還預計資本支出會降低,而開業前和擴產費用對 SG&A 的拖累也會減少。我們計劃通過跟踪 Allbirds 商店運營指標以及我們的第三方門店數量來衡量第二項舉措的成功與否。
Shifting gears to our third initiative, we believe that a potential change in our international go-to-market strategy could have the biggest impact on our financial profile. Although we are evaluating different scenarios, a switch to a partnership model with distributors for certain markets would lead to less revenue on our P&L on an apples-to-apples basis, but it will be higher quality revenue with greater flow-through to the bottom line. If we switch to a partnership model with distributors in certain markets, gross margins in those markets are expected to be lower, but we believe that will be more than offset by reduced market-specific marketing expenses and SG&A expenses as well as reduced SG&A at headquarters.
轉向我們的第三項舉措,我們認為我們國際上市戰略的潛在變化可能對我們的財務狀況產生最大影響。儘管我們正在評估不同的情景,但在某些市場轉向與分銷商的合作模式將導致我們的損益收入減少,但收入質量更高,流向底部的流量更大線。如果我們在某些市場轉向與分銷商的合作模式,這些市場的毛利率預計會降低,但我們相信這將被特定市場營銷費用和 SG&A 費用的減少以及總部 SG&A 的減少所抵消.
Lastly, we believe a potential change in international go-to-market will improve our balance sheet as we will carry less inventory and will require very little CapEx to support future international growth. It is still early on in our evaluation process for a potential shift in our international go-to-market strategy, and we expect to provide updates on our discussions with potential partners.
最後,我們認為國際上市的潛在變化將改善我們的資產負債表,因為我們將減少庫存,並且需要很少的資本支出來支持未來的國際增長。我們對國際上市戰略的潛在轉變的評估過程仍處於早期階段,我們希望提供與潛在合作夥伴討論的最新信息。
That brings us to our fourth and final initiative, delivering profitable growth by building upon the cost and cash optimization actions started as part of our simplification initiatives. We made notable progress in these areas in 2022, which gives us confidence that we can accelerate cost savings across several areas going forward. First, we expect to continue to reduce COGS through our previously announced manufacturing transition. In addition, as part of our transformation plan, we are enhancing our strategic sourcing program as well as optimizing the use of materials across platforms. Second, we expect our sharpened focus on product and brand marketing that celebrates our core DNA will unlock supply chain and logistics savings through improved assortment productivity.
這將我們帶到了我們的第四個也是最後一個計劃,通過在作為我們簡化計劃的一部分開始的成本和現金優化行動的基礎上實現盈利增長。 2022 年,我們在這些領域取得了顯著進展,這讓我們有信心在未來加快多個領域的成本節約。首先,我們希望通過之前宣布的製造轉型繼續降低銷貨成本。此外,作為我們轉型計劃的一部分,我們正在加強我們的戰略採購計劃,並優化跨平台材料的使用。其次,我們希望通過提高分類生產力,更加專注於彰顯我們核心 DNA 的產品和品牌營銷,從而節省供應鍊和物流成本。
Third, we will continue to leverage savings in warehousing and logistics generated by the simplification initiatives. Fourth, we expect to make an additional SG&A reduction of $15 million to $20 million through the actions we are taking across the other 3 initiatives. And fifth, we anticipate that operating cash flow will continue to improve through these 4 actions as well as our enhanced cash management activities, particularly tight inventory management. We plan to measure the success of this initiative by tracking our landed product margin out of the factories as a percent of product MSRP as well as direct business gross margin and SG&A as a percent of sales and expect to provide periodic updates on how these metrics are trending.
第三,我們將繼續利用簡化舉措產生的倉儲和物流成本節約。第四,我們希望通過我們在其他 3 項舉措中採取的行動,將 SG&A 額外減少 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。第五,我們預計通過這 4 項行動以及我們加強的現金管理活動,特別是嚴格的庫存管理,經營現金流將繼續改善。我們計劃通過跟踪我們的工廠到岸產品利潤佔產品 MSRP 的百分比以及直接業務毛利率和 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比來衡量該計劃的成功,並期望定期更新這些指標的情況趨勢。
To summarize the cost savings actions. While there is still much work to do, we are targeting savings of $35 million to $45 million over the next 3 years made up of cost of goods savings of $20 million to $25 million and SG&A savings of $15 million to $20 million.
總結成本節約行動。雖然還有很多工作要做,但我們的目標是在未來 3 年內節省 3500 萬至 4500 萬美元,其中商品成本節省 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元,SG&A 節省 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。
Going a little deeper on cash, I'd like to discuss the implications of these changes on our cash position and how we have best positioned ourselves to have no additional need for capital in the foreseeable future. We continue to tighten new inventory buys. Coupled with the actions we are taking to move through inventory of H2 2022 launches, we expect to leave 2023 with lower inventory on hand. With fewer new Allbirds store openings, our 2023 CapEx is expected to come down to between $10 million and $15 million.
更深入地討論現金問題,我想討論這些變化對我們現金狀況的影響,以及我們如何最好地定位自己,以便在可預見的未來不再需要額外的資金。我們繼續收緊新的庫存購買。加上我們為清理 2022 年下半年發射的庫存而採取的行動,我們預計到 2023 年手頭庫存將減少。隨著 Allbirds 新店開張的減少,我們 2023 年的資本支出預計將降至 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元之間。
On the cash management front, we have updated our investment policy and have kicked off working capital improvement initiatives. Finally, we have just put in place an LOI with JPMorgan to extend and upsize our undrawn revolver, which, when amended, would extend the maturity through 2026 and provide us with access to up to $50 million of committed liquidity and the option to request an upsize to $100 million. When combined with the approximately $167 million we had in cash on hand at the end of Q4, this new facility puts us in a strong liquidity position.
在現金管理方面,我們更新了投資政策並啟動了營運資本改善計劃。最後,我們剛剛與摩根大通簽署了一份意向書,以延長和擴大我們未提取的左輪手槍,經修改後,到期期限將延長至 2026 年,並為我們提供高達 5000 萬美元的承諾流動性以及請求將規模擴大到 1 億美元。加上我們在第四季度末手頭擁有的大約 1.67 億美元現金,這項新設施使我們處於強大的流動性狀況。
Bringing the financial implications of the strategic transformation together, in 2024, we expect to begin to see the P&L benefits and a new financial profile for Allbirds to emerge, one which requires less CapEx and SG&A to grow and with better flow-through from the top line to the bottom line, especially as revenue reaccelerates.
綜合戰略轉型的財務影響,到 2024 年,我們預計將開始看到 Allbirds 的損益收益和新的財務狀況,該狀況需要更少的資本支出和 SG&A 來實現增長,並且來自高層的流動性更好線到底線,尤其是隨著收入的重新加速。
Finally, I want to wrap up with some personal remarks as my decision to leave Allbirds was not an easy one. First, it has been a pleasure to work with our investors and analysts. You have all provided a great perspective on the business, and I value the relationships we've built. Second, Allbirds is a unique company with a flock dedicated to the company's important mission into making and selling great products that customers love. This is especially true of the great team I've built and led over the past 2 years.
最後,我想用一些個人的話作為結束,因為我離開 Allbirds 的決定並非易事。首先,很高興與我們的投資者和分析師合作。你們都提供了一個很好的業務視角,我很重視我們建立的關係。其次,Allbirds 是一家獨特的公司,擁有一群致力於公司重要使命的公司,即製造和銷售客戶喜愛的優質產品。對於我在過去兩年中建立和領導的偉大團隊來說尤其如此。
Third, I welcome Annie to the flock and look forward to supporting her as she comes on board. This moment of transformation from the business provides a natural transition point, which factored into the timing of my decision. I believe Annie will hit the ground running and be successful in the role given her industry experience, the great team she will now lead and the work we've done around cost savings initiatives and the company's capital structure. Finally, I continue to believe that the company has great opportunities ahead and look forward to following the company's success.
第三,我歡迎 Annie 加入團隊,並期待在她加入時支持她。業務轉型的這一時刻提供了一個自然的過渡點,這也是我做出決定的時間因素。鑑於她的行業經驗、她現在將領導的優秀團隊以及我們圍繞成本節約計劃和公司資本結構所做的工作,我相信 Annie 將在這個職位上立於不敗之地並取得成功。最後,我仍然相信公司未來擁有巨大的機遇,並期待著公司的成功。
As I turn the call over to Tim, I would also like to thank Tim for his inspiration and friendship the last couple of years and thank the rest of the executive team for their partnership and our time working together.
當我把電話轉給蒂姆時,我還要感謝蒂姆過去幾年的靈感和友誼,並感謝其他執行團隊的伙伴關係和我們一起工作的時間。
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Thanks, Mike, and thank you for your partnership and contributions to Allbirds. You've heard us share today a clear plan for reigniting growth across our company. We are an innovative organization. And in many ways, this effort is not dissimilar to how we think about innovation itself.
謝謝,邁克,感謝您與 Allbirds 的合作和貢獻。您已經聽到我們今天分享了一項重振整個公司增長的明確計劃。我們是一個創新的組織。在許多方面,這種努力與我們對創新本身的看法並無不同。
Innovation is the search for new solutions. Sometimes these solutions are unique. Other times, there are a reconstitution of things that we already know. But in all cases, they require taking a step back and looking at things differently. And that's what we're doing as we launch Allbirds' strategic transformation plan. This plan is about taking a fresh look at how we deliver on our commitment to develop premium, differentiated and sustainably-built products so that we can better connect with our core consumer and reignite growth.
創新是尋找新的解決方案。有時這些解決方案是獨一無二的。其他時候,我們已經知道的事情會被重組。但在所有情況下,他們都需要退後一步,以不同的方式看待事物。這就是我們啟動 Allbirds 戰略轉型計劃時正在做的事情。該計劃旨在重新審視我們如何兌現開發優質、差異化和可持續製造產品的承諾,以便我們能夠更好地與核心消費者建立聯繫並重振增長。
A key role I am playing in this work is getting back to my roots evangelizing our brand. We have always believed that serving as a force for good for the planet is not only the right thing to do, but it also makes Allbirds a more enduring business for the long term. As we enter this next chapter, I am deeply passionate about helping to define the future of our approach to sustainable innovation in footwear and raising the standards for others across the retail industry.
我在這項工作中扮演的一個關鍵角色是回歸本源,宣傳我們的品牌。我們始終相信,為地球造福不僅是正確的事情,而且從長遠來看,這也使 Allbirds 成為一家更持久的企業。當我們進入下一章時,我非常熱衷於幫助定義我們鞋類可持續創新方法的未來,並提高整個零售行業的標準。
I'm equally focused on building a thriving culture at Allbirds. As you all know, Joey and I founded this company with a mission to create better products in a better way. And we did that by bringing a group of incredibly talented and passionate people together. Our shared commitment to our values has unified our team as we've grown and evolved the business over the years, and we'll continue to serve as our North Star as we work to refine our operations and strategy.
我同樣專注於在 Allbirds 建立繁榮的文化。眾所周知,喬伊和我創立這家公司的使命是用更好的方式創造更好的產品。我們通過將一群非常有才華和熱情的人聚集在一起來做到這一點。多年來,隨著我們業務的發展和發展,我們對價值觀的共同承諾使我們的團隊團結一致,並且在我們努力完善我們的運營和戰略時,我們將繼續充當我們的北極星。
We've learned a lot over the last year, and we're confident that the initiatives we announced today are the right ones to get Allbirds back on track. We are still in the early innings of our journey, but I firmly believe that the core foundation of this 100-year brand is as strong as it has ever been, and our mission has never been more relevant. I know that the strategy outlined today is the right one for us, and I'm thankful that our team has embraced this pivotal moment with such enthusiasm.
我們在過去的一年裡學到了很多東西,我們相信我們今天宣布的舉措是讓 Allbirds 重回正軌的正確舉措。我們仍處於旅程的早期階段,但我堅信這個擁有 100 年曆史的品牌的核心基礎一如既往地強大,我們的使命也從未如此切合實際。我知道今天概述的戰略對我們來說是正確的,我很感謝我們的團隊以如此熱情迎接這一關鍵時刻。
With that, I'll hand it back to the operator for Q&A.
有了這個,我會把它交還給接線員進行問答。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Mark Altschwager 與 Baird 的對話。
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
I guess just, first, I wanted to ask on the product strategy. As you retrench and focus on the core, I guess which silhouettes and fabrics are you planning to pull back on or discontinue, if any? Or is the retrenching and refocusing here just more related to the marketing and how you're going after your core consumer? And then I have a follow-up.
我想首先,我想問一下產品策略。當你緊縮並專注於核心時,我猜你打算取消或停止哪些輪廓和麵料,如果有的話?還是這裡的緊縮和重新聚焦與營銷以及您如何追求核心消費者更相關?然後我有一個後續行動。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Mark, thanks for the question. Yes. And this is Joey for everyone's sake. So it's a little bit of a combination. It's not just the market positioning. It also is really down to the core silhouette. And I'll say that there are a couple of examples we gave around the Pacer and the Flyer specifically are good examples for you to, I guess, clear out the picture there.
馬克,謝謝你的提問。是的。為了大家的緣故,這是喬伊。所以這是一個組合。這不僅僅是市場定位。這也真正取決於核心輪廓。我要說的是,我們舉了幾個關於 Pacer 和 Flyer 的例子,我想這對你來說是很好的例子。
So first on the Pacer, that was both the product execution and a marketing campaign that was really oriented around a younger consumer, really outside the sweet spot of the group of people who have really fell in love with us and love the core franchise for what we do. And similarly, with the Flyer, that was a product that was really marketed with heavy orientation around the technical running performance that, that item delivers. And it's a great product.
所以首先在 Pacer 上,這既是產品執行,也是真正針對年輕消費者的營銷活動,真的超出了那些真正愛上我們並熱愛核心特許經營權的人群的甜蜜點我們的確是。同樣,對於 Flyer,這是一款真正以產品所提供的技術運行性能為重心進行營銷的產品。這是一個很棒的產品。
We just found out that the customers that were -- that are really in our sweet spot aren't resonating with a core technical performance messaging. And some of that missed execution by us, I think, boils down to us having a little bit of difficulty with signal and noise as we launched the Dasher and saw really tremendous success.
我們剛剛發現那些真正處於我們最佳位置的客戶並沒有與核心技術性能消息產生共鳴。我認為,我們未能執行的部分原因歸結為我們在推出 Dasher 時在信號和噪音方面遇到了一些困難,並取得了巨大的成功。
And so as we dug in and did a bunch of consumer insight work here, what we have found is that this active lifestyle and the central space that really bridges those 2 kind of separate categories of lifestyle and performance really requires a focused effort around product development, and it also requires a more focused effort with marketing. And we need to align those 2 in a really integrated fashion. And the Dasher, as I noted, is a great example of a franchise that we think embellishes this story and this message to our consumers in exactly the way that we know it's going to resonate.
因此,當我們在這裡深入挖掘並進行大量消費者洞察工作時,我們發現,這種積極的生活方式和真正將這兩種不同的生活方式和性能聯繫起來的中心空間確實需要圍繞產品開發集中精力,並且還需要更加專注於營銷。我們需要以一種真正集成的方式調整這兩者。正如我所指出的,Dasher 是特許經營的一個很好的例子,我們認為它以我們知道它會引起共鳴的方式向我們的消費者美化這個故事和這個信息。
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
And then a follow-up, Mike, a lot of changes to the P&L that you talked about today. As the changes take hold, is there a framework we should use to think about contribution margin as growth resumes? I believe you also said you don't see the need for additional liquidity beyond the actions you discussed today. So what is the implicit view there on the time line to hit positive free cash flow?
然後是跟進,邁克,你今天談到的損益表有很多變化。隨著變化的發生,我們是否應該使用一個框架來考慮增長恢復時的邊際貢獻?我相信你也說過,除了你今天討論的行動之外,你認為不需要額外的流動性。那麼關於實現正自由現金流的時間線的隱含觀點是什麼?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. Thanks, Mark. On the second part of that question, we talked about in Joey's comments earlier about getting to EBITDA positive in 2025. So I think you could follow that along on the cash flow side, especially this new model is going to be much more OpEx light and much more CapEx light for us. It's going to be higher quality revenues that flow through down to the bottom line.
是的。謝謝,馬克。關於該問題的第二部分,我們之前在 Joey 的評論中談到了要在 2025 年實現 EBITDA 正值。所以我認為您可以在現金流方面遵循這一點,尤其是這種新模式將更加輕便的運營成本和為我們帶來更多資本支出。這將是流向底線的更高質量的收入。
So in terms of contribution margin, I'd say let us follow up with you on that in future quarters, how we're thinking about like the right shape of the P&L. I think the reality is we have to get these international transformation, these potential international transformations done. And as the P&L takes shape, we'll walk everybody through that later on.
因此,就邊際貢獻而言,我想說讓我們在未來幾個季度跟進您,我們如何考慮損益表的正確形狀。我認為現實是我們必須完成這些國際轉型,完成這些潛在的國際轉型。隨著 P&L 的形成,我們稍後會引導大家完成它。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Straton 與摩根士丹利的對話。
Unidentified Analyst
Unidentified Analyst
This is [Keisha] on for Alex Straton. I was wondering, it sounds like you're kind of pulling back from appealing to that younger consumer and more technical performance. So I was wondering how you're viewing your TAM and if you think it might be lower than it was maybe when you IPO-ed.
這是 Alex Straton 的 [Keisha]。我想知道,這聽起來像是你在吸引年輕消費者和更多技術性能方面有所退縮。所以我想知道你是如何看待你的 TAM 的,你是否認為它可能低於你首次公開募股時的水平。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Thanks for the question. Really, not at all different, actually. What we looked at, when we last showed a really comprehensive set of consumer data, largely mirrors what we're describing here. So I would describe the core consumer. This is a largely affluent set. It's pretty balanced between gender. So currently, it's about 55% women in the SKUs that we sell. But what we've heard from the consumer in that study is that we have even a bigger opportunity with women than we understood. And to the previous comments around product calibration, having a really tightly gender-differentiated color strategy and silhouette strategy will offer us a significant opportunity going forward.
謝謝你的問題。真的,實際上一點也不不同。當我們上次展示一組非常全面的消費者數據時,我們所看到的在很大程度上反映了我們在這裡描述的內容。所以我會描述核心消費者。這是一個非常富裕的群體。性別之間相當平衡。所以目前,我們銷售的 SKU 中大約有 55% 是女性。但我們在該研究中從消費者那裡聽到的是,我們在女性身上擁有比我們理解的更大的機會。對於之前關於產品校準的評論,擁有真正嚴格區分性別的色彩策略和輪廓策略將為我們提供一個重要的前進機會。
The geography is really dispersed, so there's not really any big concentrations in any part of the country. And so this demographic and even the psychographic really spreads across the country, so we continue to estimate this core demo that represents around 1/3 of the population and a really sizable and attractive group of customers for which we think this message is going to resonate very strongly. And I'll say this white space around the active lifestyle, urban exploration are territories that are really wide open, and we think we have a unique position to be able to capitalize on that.
地理位置真的很分散,所以在這個國家的任何地方都沒有太大的集中。因此,這個人口統計甚至心理統計數據確實在全國范圍內傳播,因此我們繼續估計這個核心演示代表了大約 1/3 的人口以及我們認為這個信息會引起共鳴的一個非常龐大且有吸引力的客戶群非常強烈。我要說的是,積極生活方式周圍的空白空間、城市探索是真正開放的領域,我們認為我們擁有獨特的地位可以利用這一點。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.
我們的下一個問題來自 Edward Yruma 和 Piper Sandler 的台詞。
Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Joey, it has been great working with you. I guess first on technical performance. I'd assume that there are other products in the pipeline maybe Flyer 2.0. Is there expectation that other products maybe get liquidated over time? And then I guess if I zoom out from that, in terms of liquidation strategy, can you help us understand how you can kind of protect the core brand? We've seen some liquidated products end up on like Walmart.com through marketplace vendor or another. So can you maybe talk about your disposition philosophies kind of broadly speaking.
喬伊,和你一起工作很愉快。我想首先是技術性能。我假設管道中還有其他產品可能是 Flyer 2.0。是否預期其他產品可能會隨著時間的推移而被清算?然後我想如果我從清算策略方面縮小範圍,你能幫助我們了解如何保護核心品牌嗎?我們已經看到一些清算產品最終通過市場供應商或其他供應商出現在 Walmart.com 上。那麼,您能否從廣義上談談您的性格哲學。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. Thanks, Ed. So in terms of -- I guess I'll do the second one first because I think we can bleed into the specific example of things like the Tree Flyer. Overall, what we're looking to do, as I noted, we're going to do a little bit more elevated markdown than you'd typically see from our brand. And those are going to be targeted at truly end of season or end of silhouette when we're going to either sunset that style completely or generationally update it. So this is about making sure that we protect what the core is. And that will be our continued strategy. And selectively around that, some promotion to invite new customers in that are just looking for a deal and what is continuing to be a heavy inventory industry and consumer environment that we think we need to be -- remain competitive with.
是的。謝謝,埃德。所以就——我想我會先做第二個,因為我認為我們可以深入到具體的例子中,比如 Tree Flyer。總的來說,正如我所指出的,我們打算做的是比你通常從我們的品牌看到的更多的降價促銷。這些將針對真正的季末或剪影結束時,我們將完全淘汰這種風格或對其進行世代更新。所以這是關於確保我們保護核心內容。這將是我們的持續戰略。並有選擇地圍繞這一點,進行一些促銷活動以邀請新客戶,這些客戶只是在尋找交易,而我們認為我們需要繼續保持沉重的庫存行業和消費環境 - 保持競爭力。
So in general, while it's going to be elevated, that's in part due to a bit of a mixed miss in terms of what we've outlined here. It's also just in part due to the overall volume and the miss in Q4 that we're going to need to catch up with. So those 2 things are going to be thoughtful and measured. And we expect to be able to enter 2024 with a clean inventory, with a great mix and with the appropriate size of inventory. And I'll also say that as we go through the rest of the year, we'll give you some updates on how inventory plays with these international transition should those be executed.
因此,總的來說,雖然它會被提升,但部分原因是我們在這裡概述的內容有點複雜。這也部分是由於整體數量和我們需要趕上的第四季度的失誤。所以這兩件事要經過深思熟慮和衡量。我們希望進入 2024 年時能夠擁有乾淨的庫存、良好的組合和適當的庫存規模。而且我還要說的是,在今年餘下的時間裡,我們會給你一些更新,說明庫存如何與這些國際過渡一起執行。
And so lastly, just on that first part of your question, Ed, around technical performance, and I know you've loved that product before as you've used it on runs. So it is a great product for running. But as I said, I think our consumers just weren't ready to have us enter that space and play that role in their lives. And so one of the elements there is if we continue to even upgrade a product like that, make sure that it meets a really nice lifestyle moment and an active lifestyle and we can realign market positioning and marketing around that kind of territory. We think that will be a lot more successful. And of course, we're going to have to couple that with more measured buys given what happened with the TF1.
最後,關於你問題的第一部分,Ed,關於技術性能,我知道你以前喜歡這個產品,因為你在跑步時使用過它。所以它是一款非常適合跑步的產品。但正如我所說,我認為我們的消費者還沒有準備好讓我們進入那個領域並在他們的生活中扮演那個角色。因此,如果我們繼續升級這樣的產品,其中一個要素就是確保它符合真正美好的生活方式時刻和積極的生活方式,我們可以圍繞這種領域重新調整市場定位和營銷。我們認為這會更成功。當然,考慮到 TF1 發生的情況,我們將不得不將其與更多有節制的購買相結合。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jim Duffy with Stifel.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jim Duffy 與 Stifel 的對話。
James Vincent Duffy - MD
James Vincent Duffy - MD
Mike, thanks for all the help through these past quarters and so forth. We're going to be sorry to see you go. I wanted to start by asking about the change in go-to-market strategy for the international markets. That seems particularly compelling. Under a distributor structure, do you feel there are clear sight lines to that international business becoming profitable? And then I guess the question that goes along with that is, what's the cost associated with exiting the direct footprint in international markets before you can get there? And then is it realistic to expect the change in go-to-market strategies will fully influence the P&L and balance sheet in 2024?
邁克,感謝您在過去幾個季度等等提供的所有幫助。看到你離開我們會很遺憾。我想首先詢問國際市場上市策略的變化。這似乎特別引人注目。在分銷商結構下,您認為國際業務盈利是否有清晰的視線?然後我想隨之而來的問題是,在您到達國際市場之前退出國際市場的直接足蹟的相關成本是多少?那麼期望進入市場戰略的變化將在 2024 年全面影響損益表和資產負債表是否現實?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. Thanks for the question, Jim. I'll take the kind of first part of that in terms of how we're thinking about the overall structure and transition. And maybe Mike can tackle some of the implications on the financials and how we see that shaping. So in terms -- first of all, we are fairly early in the evaluation process. We went through a period of diligence where we really sought to understand what the overall impact of a strategy like that and a shift like that could make on the business and the financials. And so what we found from that, which we now, after we've gone into the market and started some conversations, continue to believe, is that while we're going to shrink the revenue on an apples-to-apples basis, as Mike noted.
是的。謝謝你的問題,吉姆。關於我們如何考慮整體結構和過渡,我將採用其中的第一部分。也許邁克可以解決一些對財務的影響以及我們如何看待這種影響。因此,就而言 - 首先,我們在評估過程中處於相當早的階段。我們經歷了一段時間的勤奮,我們真正試圖了解這樣的戰略和這樣的轉變可能對業務和財務產生的總體影響。因此,我們從中發現,在我們進入市場並開始一些對話之後,我們現在仍然相信,雖然我們將在同類產品的基礎上縮減收入,因為邁克指出。
We are going to immediately see solid flow-through to the bottom line. And once we manage to get over the threshold where we can reduce the complexity inside of HQ to couple with that, that entire part of the business should flip to something profitable and meaningful quite quickly after those transitions are made.
我們將立即看到穩固的收益流向底線。一旦我們設法克服了我們可以降低總部內部複雜性的門檻,那麼在這些轉變完成後,整個業務部分應該很快轉向有利可圖和有意義的事情。
And I'll note that we've not made investments in our third party -- in our international business for third party. And so while we have with great partners here in the U.S. like Nordstrom, REI, ESG and SCHEELS, we have not done that in any material form in international markets. And when we look at some of these distribution partnerships, there's an opportunity to plug in quite quickly to an infrastructure that can support third-party distribution and build a really healthy marketplace with higher market awareness in those geographies.
我會注意到我們沒有對我們的第三方進行投資 - 在我們的第三方國際業務中。因此,雖然我們在美國與 Nordstrom、REI、ESG 和 SCHEELS 等偉大的合作夥伴有合作,但我們在國際市場上還沒有以任何物質形式做到這一點。當我們審視其中一些分銷合作夥伴關係時,我們有機會快速插入可以支持第三方分銷的基礎設施,並在這些地區建立一個真正健康的市場,並提高市場知名度。
And so it's still a bit early on this journey, and we're out ahead of this and talking to you guys about it transparently now, Jim. But we would -- of course, we'll update you as this goes. But we would expect this to be a really positive transition as it relates to having profitability as our core mindset here.
因此,這個旅程還為時過早,我們已經領先於此,現在透明地與你們討論它,吉姆。但是我們會 - 當然,我們會隨時更新您。但我們預計這將是一個真正積極的轉變,因為它與將盈利能力作為我們的核心思維有關。
And lastly, I'll just say that as we have shifted into starting to explore these conversations, I'll say it's very encouraging that there's quite a bit of options out there in all of the regions that we might consider for this strategy. So positive early signs, and we'll give you more detail as we go.
最後,我只想說,隨著我們開始探索這些對話,我會說非常令人鼓舞的是,在我們可能會考慮實施這一戰略的所有地區都有相當多的選擇。如此積極的早期跡象,我們會在進行時為您提供更多詳細信息。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
All right. And I'll just add on. And thanks, Jim, by the way. It's been great to work with you as well. So in terms of like when we'll see this in the balance sheet and the P&L, I think to Joey's point, it will be the pace of the transitions that they occur that will really dictate that. Given some of the earlier demand, if we do go forward on some of this, we'll hopefully see it as early as 2024, and that will be a really positive impact for us clearly.
好的。我會補充一點。順便說一句,謝謝吉姆。和你一起工作也很棒。因此,就我們何時會在資產負債表和損益表中看到這一點而言,我認為喬伊的觀點是,真正決定這一點的將是它們發生的過渡速度。鑑於一些較早的需求,如果我們確實推進其中的一些,我們希望最早在 2024 年看到它,這對我們來說顯然是一個非常積極的影響。
The first part of your question, I think, was then what are the costs associated with exiting. I think the reality is going to be there will be obviously some costs around discontinued operations or assets that are held for sale if distributors are going to end up buying stores from us. Our guess, though, is the inventory that we're going to sell them as they kind of ramp up and fill the channel asserting those markets, the cash we're going to receive from that and the revenue we're going to receive from that should more than offset any of the exit cost.
我認為,你問題的第一部分是與退出相關的成本是多少。我認為現實情況是,如果分銷商最終要從我們這裡購買商店,那麼在停止運營或持有待售資產方面顯然會有一些成本。不過,我們的猜測是,我們將在它們增加並填充斷言這些市場的渠道時出售它們的庫存,我們將從中獲得的現金以及我們將從中獲得的收入這應該足以抵消任何退出成本。
But obviously, every deal is a little bit unique. Every transaction is a little bit unique. So if we do proceed with the transaction, we'll obviously give a lot more visibility around that and let you know how that's working out over time. But our hope as we go into these deals and if we view them, they're going to be cash-neutral, if not, cash-positive.
但顯然,每筆交易都有點獨特。每筆交易都有點獨特。因此,如果我們確實繼續進行交易,我們顯然會圍繞它提供更多的可見性,並讓您知道隨著時間的推移它是如何運作的。但我們希望,當我們進入這些交易時,如果我們查看它們,它們將是現金中性的,如果不是,現金積極的。
James Vincent Duffy - MD
James Vincent Duffy - MD
It makes good sense. I realize you still have much to explore, but that does seem a very logical structure. Question for Joey and Tim, and I'll just be direct here. Are the 2 of you open to exploring the idea that the best future for Allbirds may not be as an independent entity?
這很有道理。我知道你還有很多東西要探索,但這看起來確實是一個非常合乎邏輯的結構。 Joey 和 Tim 的問題,我會直接在這裡。你們兩個是否願意探索 Allbirds 最好的未來可能不是一個獨立的實體?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. Look, we are always open-minded. We have a belief, and have for some time, that the opportunity for this brand is really substantial. And I think we've more than validated, in fact surprised ourselves, when we ran this most recent and deep consumer insight study that we did with some external partners. So we continue to believe in the long-term opportunity here as having an incredibly high ceiling, and we want to pursue that with the best path that we possibly can for our shareholders.
是的。看,我們總是心胸開闊。我們相信,並且一段時間以來,這個品牌的機會真的很大。而且我認為,當我們與一些外部合作夥伴進行這項最新的深度消費者洞察研究時,我們不僅驗證了自己,而且實際上讓自己感到驚訝。因此,我們繼續相信這裡的長期機會具有令人難以置信的高上限,我們希望以我們可能為股東提供的最佳途徑來追求這一目標。
And at this moment, as we look around and, of course, had discussions with all the right people that you'd expect us to be having, it continues to be our belief and the Board's belief that the best opportunity is as a public company that's seeking an independent future. And that's in the best interest of shareholders, Tim and myself being some of the most significant ones.
此刻,當我們環顧四周,當然,與您期望我們擁有的所有合適的人進行討論時,這仍然是我們和董事會的信念,即最好的機會是作為一家上市公司那就是尋求一個獨立的未來。這符合股東的最大利益,蒂姆和我本人是最重要的股東之一。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of John Kernan with Cowen.
我們的下一個問題來自 John Kernan 和 Cowen 的對話。
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
And Mike, it's been good working with you.
邁克,和你一起工作很愉快。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
Mike, maybe just on OpEx and within operating expenses, the 2 buckets, SG&A and marketing. I think in your prepared remarks, Joey, I think you said marketing dollars would be up again this year. So how do we think about SG&A and overall operating expense dollars and rates as we go into 2023?
邁克,也許只是在運營支出和運營支出中,2 個桶,SG&A 和營銷。我想在你準備好的發言中,喬伊,我想你說過今年營銷費用會再次增加。那麼,在我們進入 2023 年時,我們如何看待 SG&A 以及整體運營費用美元和費率?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. We're not giving guidance for the full year, John, like Joey said in the call. And obviously, the pace that would happen with the international transitions, if those do happen, that's going to have a pretty big impact both on the marketing spend and on the OpEx. So unfortunately, that's a really hard question to give a lot more clarity on. As you all work through your model, I mean Katina and I are happy to answer some follow-up questions over the next few days as you look at the model.
是的。約翰,我們不會給出全年的指導,就像喬伊在電話中所說的那樣。顯然,國際轉型的步伐,如果真的發生了,那將對營銷支出和運營支出產生相當大的影響。所以不幸的是,這是一個很難給出更多清晰度的問題。當你們都在研究模型時,我的意思是 Katina 和我很樂意在接下來的幾天裡在你們查看模型時回答一些後續問題。
I will tell you, though, over time, as you balance this out when we talk about getting to like EBITDA positive in 2025, you'd be looking at a business that obviously has a lot less marketing dollars because they'd be primarily focused on the U.S. and a lot less OpEx dollars. Because, again, it'll be a much smaller and simpler go-to-market structure and a lot less CapEx required to grow that business. So I focus a little bit less, John, on just the '23 piece and a little bit more about the destination of 2025 and why some of these potential changes make a lot of sense for us.
不過,我會告訴你,隨著時間的推移,當我們談論在 2025 年實現正 EBITDA 時,你會平衡這一點,你會看到一家營銷資金明顯少得多的企業,因為它們主要集中在在美國和更少的 OpEx 美元。因為,這將是一個更小、更簡單的上市結構,而且發展該業務所需的資本支出也少得多。因此,約翰,我不太關注 23 年的作品,而是更多地關注 2025 年的目標,以及為什麼其中一些潛在的變化對我們來說很有意義。
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
John David Kernan - MD & Research Analyst
Understood. A lot of helpful commentary on the product strategy and the margin profile. I guess what about the balance sheet and working capital as we get into 2023 inventory dollars and other areas where you can conserve cash?
明白了。很多關於產品策略和利潤率的有用評論。我想當我們進入 2023 年庫存美元和其他可以節省現金的領域時,資產負債表和營運資金如何?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. So I think a couple of pieces there. I think you've already seen some of the benefits of the work we've put into place around, like definitely inventory management being a lot more judicious about the rate of our cash burn, and that has come down every quarter. And our inventory growth has come down every quarter. So we feel like we're making a lot of progress there. Joey and I both said earlier during the prepared remarks, I think the reality is we are sitting on a little bit more inventory than we would want right now.
是的。所以我想那裡有幾件。我想你已經看到了我們所做工作的一些好處,比如庫存管理肯定對我們的現金消耗率更加明智,而且每個季度都在下降。而且我們的庫存增長每個季度都在下降。所以我們覺得我們在那裡取得了很大的進步。喬伊和我早些時候在準備好的發言中都說過,我認為現實是我們現在的庫存比我們現在想要的要多一點。
A lot of that is some product that comes from the second half of 2022, and those are the ones we talked about that we're going to be a bit more aggressive within our own channels around markdown and moving some of that out. And at the same time, we've been a lot tighter on the inventory buy clearly for 2023 and into the early part of 2024.
其中很多是 2022 年下半年推出的一些產品,這些是我們談到的,我們將在我們自己的渠道中圍繞降價促銷採取更加積極的態度,並將其中的一些移出。與此同時,我們對 2023 年和 2024 年初的庫存購買明顯收緊了很多。
And then in terms of working capital, the reality is that once the business is a little bit more third-party oriented and distribution-oriented over time, that's certainly going to change how we think about working capital. We want more levers for us to pull around working capital. Then the last thing I'd say is when we think about what would happen with cash in 2023, again, to kind of follow up on what we were just saying to Jim's question, we expect any of those transitions if they happen to be cash flow-neutral or cash flow-positive.
然後就營運資金而言,現實情況是,一旦業務隨著時間的推移更加面向第三方和分銷,那肯定會改變我們對營運資金的看法。我們希望有更多的槓桿來籌集營運資金。然後我要說的最後一件事是,當我們考慮 2023 年現金會發生什麼時,再次跟進我們剛才對 Jim 的問題所說的話,我們預計這些過渡中的任何一個如果碰巧是現金流量中性或現金流為正。
As you get closer to those potential transactions, you're obviously not going to be buying inventory for the market, so that will start to come down over time. There's lots of levers we have within there. It's just because of the pace of the potential transitions internationally, John, it's hard to give you a very precise answer. But those are the factors we think about as we have confidence in the liquidity position and with inventory coming down over 2023.
當您接近這些潛在交易時,您顯然不會為市場購買庫存,因此隨著時間的推移,庫存將開始下降。我們裡面有很多槓桿。約翰,這只是因為國際上潛在轉型的步伐,很難給你一個非常準確的答案。但這些是我們考慮的因素,因為我們對流動性狀況充滿信心,並且庫存會在 2023 年下降。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Janine Stichter with BTIG.
我們的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Janine Stichter。
Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst
Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst
I was hoping you could elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing on the wholesale side. Curious how effective you've seen these partnerships be in acquiring new customers, if you're seeing any differences there in terms of sell-through versus what you're seeing in your own stores. And then how much would you or could you accelerate it if you think it's the right strategy to go more wholesale route?
我希望你能詳細說明你在批發方面看到的情況。如果您看到這些合作夥伴關係在銷售方面與您在自己的商店中看到的有任何差異,那麼您很想知道這些合作夥伴關係在獲取新客戶方面的效果如何。然後,如果您認為走更多批發路線是正確的策略,您會或可以加速多少?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. Thanks for the question. The -- we've only selected just a handful of accounts so far, and they're really premium. And we went into these relationships understanding that we were going to fill a real need for their consumer that is walking in their doors. That was differentiated and was accretive to our overall ecosystem, being that we expect some of those customers to come back to our direct channel and, of course, just add aided awareness in the regions that we may not be able to hit with our stores or can best hit with multiple touch points.
是的。謝謝你的問題。到目前為止,我們只選擇了少數幾個賬戶,而且它們真的很優質。我們了解了這些關係,我們將滿足走進他們家門的消費者的真正需求。這是差異化的,並且增加了我們的整體生態系統,因為我們希望其中一些客戶回到我們的直接渠道,當然,只是在我們可能無法通過我們的商店或最好用多個觸點擊中。
So far, that's working. That seems to be working decently here, but we're still so small. It's hard to really clear out the noise and understand what the impact on aided awareness growth has been related to that channel.
到目前為止,這是有效的。這似乎在這里工作得很好,但我們仍然很小。很難真正清除噪音並了解對輔助意識增長的影響與該渠道有關。
And I'll say as it relates to product, we've seen a good deal of consistency across all our channels. So the sell-through being really strong on the core franchises that we kind of have described is what is most resonant with our core consumer. And in some of the more technical performance areas, some of those being at elevated price points. Those are -- that's been a little bit weaker. And so we're recalibrating that. And the overall approach here is we want to have really strong sell-through to support our partners and customers here.
我要說的是,就產品而言,我們在所有渠道中都看到了很好的一致性。因此,我們所描述的核心特許經營權的銷售量非常強勁,這最能引起我們核心消費者的共鳴。在一些更具技術性的性能領域,其中一些處於較高的價格點。那些 - 這有點弱。所以我們正在重新校準它。這裡的總體方法是我們希望擁有真正強大的銷售能力來支持我們的合作夥伴和客戶。
And as we have really strong sell-through, we're going to be able to do that by recalibrating and focusing on not just like the sweet spot of core, but also these embellishments that we make around the core franchises. Drive sell-through there, which goes into better sell-in in the next season. We can add doors in these accounts because they all have substantial number of doors that can reach a great consumer. And then finally, we will consider selectively evaluating some additional partners, whether that be on the physical brick-and-mortar side of the wholesale marketplace or even in digital.
由於我們的銷售量非常強勁,我們將能夠通過重新校準和專注於核心特許經營的甜蜜點,以及我們圍繞核心特許經營權所做的這些裝飾來做到這一點。在那裡推動銷售,這將在下一季進入更好的銷售。我們可以在這些帳戶中添加門,因為它們都有大量可以接觸到大量消費者的門。最後,我們將考慮有選擇地評估一些額外的合作夥伴,無論是在批發市場的實體實體方面,還是在數字方面。
So we're looking at that. We're looking at it from a clean marketplace perspective and trying to grow this in a very healthy way and don't want to just go extremely quickly. Because theoretically, the numbers would pencil out to be higher flow-through to EBITDA for that, but really want to make sure we have a clean marketplace and give our consumer a great experience as they come into our company's ecosystem.
所以我們正在研究。我們從一個乾淨的市場角度來看待它,並試圖以一種非常健康的方式發展它,而不是想走得太快。因為從理論上講,這些數字會導致更高的 EBITDA 流量,但真的想確保我們有一個乾淨的市場,並在我們的消費者進入我們公司的生態系統時為他們提供良好的體驗。
Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst
Janine Marie Hoffman Stichter - MD & Consumer Retail and Lifestyle Brands Analyst
Great. Makes sense. And then one more. On the retail side, as you've become more of a retail business, more wholesale than you were initially, I'm curious, I noticed you mentioned that you didn't promote as much as maybe you thought you could have in the fourth quarter. So as your sales base shifts more to stores and wholesale from online, are you finding that you need to compete more with the traditional retail calendar? I'm just curious how that changes your approach to promotions and, ultimately, the gross margin structure.
偉大的。說得通。然後再來一個。在零售方面,隨著你變得更像零售業務,比最初更批發,我很好奇,我注意到你提到你沒有像你想像的那樣在第四個四分之一。因此,隨著您的銷售基礎更多地從在線轉移到商店和批發,您是否發現您需要與傳統零售日曆進行更多競爭?我只是好奇這會如何改變您的促銷方式,並最終改變毛利率結構。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. I think if the wholesale becomes -- the wholesale channel becomes much more significant, I think there's probably some constraints that we are going to have to work with in terms of promotion calendar and markdowns. I would also expect that we would be able to differentiate our assortment across channel really effectively. And then it's important to also understand the role that each of these wholesale partners, our stores and our digital ecosystem play.
是的。我認為,如果批髮變得 - 批發渠道變得更加重要,我認為在促銷日曆和降價促銷方面,我們可能不得不應對一些限制。我還希望我們能夠真正有效地跨渠道區分我們的分類。然後,了解每個批發合作夥伴、我們的商店和我們的數字生態系統所扮演的角色也很重要。
And we found in our retail stores, these are consumers who are much less price-resistant and have a very high purchase intent, and so they're coming in. And we want to make sure they have the best experience, the best product and items that we don't expect to mark down quite as much or quite as quickly as we work through this inventory and well into the future.
我們在我們的零售店中發現,這些消費者對價格的抵抗力要低得多,而且購買意願非常高,所以他們會進來。我們希望確保他們擁有最好的體驗、最好的產品和我們不希望在我們處理這個庫存時減價或減價的項目很長一段時間。
So that's sort of how we're thinking about the flow across each of these segments of the omnichannel offering within the U.S. And so far, pretty good. I think some of the lessons we've learned in this in Q4, we're working through in Q1 to make sure everyone is cleaned up in an effective way so that we march through the rest of this year in a very healthy and deliberate manner.
所以這就是我們如何考慮美國境內全渠道產品的每個細分市場的流量。到目前為止,還不錯。我認為我們在第四季度從中吸取的一些教訓,我們正在第一季度努力確保每個人都得到有效的清理,以便我們以非常健康和審慎的方式度過今年餘下的時間.
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Right. So I think we're a little bit over time, since we have a long prepared remarks. So we'll take one more question, and then we'll catch anybody else in the follow-up call. So thank you all for your patience. We'll take one last question, operator.
正確的。所以我認為我們有點超時,因為我們準備了很長時間的評論。所以我們會再回答一個問題,然後我們會在跟進電話中找到其他人。所以謝謝大家的耐心等待。接線員,我們將提出最後一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our final question comes from the line of Blake Anderson with Jefferies.
我們的最後一個問題來自 Blake Anderson 與 Jefferies 的對話。
Blake Anderson - Equity Associate
Blake Anderson - Equity Associate
Just wanted to ask on slowdown in the core customer, it sounds like that was mainly product launches in the second half, So I just want to make sure. It sounds like you guys saw a step down in Q4. It's not like this was such a gradual realization and kind of took a step down in Q4 with some products like the Flyer. So how much of the slowdown do you think is macro-related? I don't know if you could size that out.
只是想問一下核心客戶的放緩,聽起來主要是下半年的產品發布,所以我只是想確定一下。聽起來你們在第四季度看到了下降。這並不是像 Flyer 這樣的漸進式實現,而是在第四季度採取了一些措施。那麼您認為經濟放緩有多少與宏觀相關?我不知道你能不能算出來。
And then just secondly on getting back the focus to the core customer. I was just wondering how we should think about the pace of innovation. Are you going to try to innovate more products for the core customer? Or is just shifting your attention and marketing back to the core customer kind of good enough to improve that part?
其次是將重點重新放在核心客戶身上。我只是想知道我們應該如何考慮創新的步伐。你會嘗試為核心客戶創新更多的產品嗎?或者只是將您的注意力和營銷轉移回核心客戶就足以改善這部分了嗎?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Thanks, Blake. So the turn down was actually most pronounced in the very end of the quarter, which is unique. And frankly, we didn't have as much of an opportunity to react even if we wanted to in terms of increasing some of the promotion or markdown cadence there. That was one element that we saw.
謝謝,布萊克。因此,下降實際上在本季度末最為明顯,這是獨一無二的。坦率地說,即使我們想增加那裡的一些促銷或降價節奏,我們也沒有太多機會做出反應。這是我們看到的一個要素。
In general, the comments around our core customers, that's really what we found, in particular, when we dig into the research, and this is a multi-thousand consumer study that we ran. Has shown us that what we became famous for early on, those are things like the Wool Runner, the Tree Runner, the Tree Dasher, those are still resonating very strongly. What I alluded to earlier is that we put some of these newer products out there, and we did that at the expense of what in the footwear industry is so much more dimensionality we still have yet to offer on the core franchise. That can be in a gender-differentiated color strategy. It can be with trim. It can be with things that are really specifically oriented hitting consumer needs and some trend-based things that are very wearable and compelling for her, but for both genders in particular.
總的來說,圍繞我們核心客戶的評論,這確實是我們發現的,特別是當我們深入研究時,這是我們進行的數千名消費者研究。向我們展示了我們早期成名的東西,比如 Wool Runner、Tree Runner、Tree Dasher,這些仍然引起非常強烈的共鳴。我之前提到的是,我們推出了一些較新的產品,而我們這樣做的代價是鞋類行業的核心特許經營權還沒有提供更多的維度。這可以採用性別差異化的色彩策略。它可以與修剪。它可以是真正專門針對滿足消費者需求的東西,也可以是一些非常耐穿且對她有吸引力的基於趨勢的東西,尤其是對男女。
So I'd say that's a bit more of where we're headed. And those are things that we can impact a little bit more quickly than we can in overall silhouette differences. So in terms of the innovation that you should see coming forward or should expect from us going forward, you're going to see a lot more embellishment and emphasis from the marketing side as well around core franchise development.
所以我想說這是我們前進的方向。這些是我們可以比整體輪廓差異更快地影響的東西。因此,就您應該看到的創新或我們未來應該期待的創新而言,您會看到營銷方面以及核心特許經營發展方面的更多修飾和強調。
And then secondly, as I noted, newness is still really important. And when we sharpen our focus and we focus on what the consumer is telling us, what her needs are, then we should be able to introduce some really interesting new silhouettes and new styles that will branch off of these franchises that we know are a little bit closer to those core products and core consumer needs. So that's generally the sequence that you should expect. And I'm now talking from changes that we can do in the core product mix in 2023 with colors and trim, things like that, smaller variables, and then greater things on silhouettes in 2024.
其次,正如我指出的那樣,新穎性仍然非常重要。當我們更加專注於消費者告訴我們什麼,她的需求是什麼時,我們應該能夠推出一些真正有趣的新款式和新款式,這些款式和款式將從我們知道的這些特許經營中衍生出來更接近那些核心產品和核心消費者需求。所以這通常是您應該期望的順序。我現在說的是我們可以在 2023 年對核心產品組合進行的更改,包括顏色和裝飾等,較小的變量,然後是 2024 年在輪廓上進行的更大更改。
So that's generally the pace. Newness is still really important. It's just directing that newness in a way that's listening really deeply to these consumer insights that we picked up.
所以這通常是步伐。新鮮感還是很重要的。它只是以一種真正深入傾聽我們獲得的這些消費者洞察力的方式來引導這種新鮮感。
Operator
Operator
I would now like to turn the call back to Joey for closing remarks.
我現在想把電話轉回給 Joey,請他作結束語。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Thank you very much. And thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I just want to say that our team is really energized and aligned where we need to go and how to get there. The changes we announced today are substantial. And much of that work will take time, but we are committed to getting this right to create value for shareholders. And on behalf of the entire Allbirds team, I want to thank the investors and the analyst community who believe in the foundation of this brand. We look forward to updating you all on progress in the next quarters.
非常感謝。感謝大家今天加入我們。我只想說,我們的團隊真的充滿活力,並在我們需要去的地方以及如何到達那裡保持一致。我們今天宣布的變化是重大的。大部分工作都需要時間,但我們致力於為股東創造價值。我代表整個 Allbirds 團隊,感謝相信這個品牌基礎的投資者和分析師社區。我們期待在接下來的幾個季度向大家通報最新進展。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。