使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Allbirds Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
下午好,女士們,先生們,歡迎來到 Allbirds 2022 年第二季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)
Now I would like to turn the call over to Katina Metzidakis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Business Development at Allbirds. Please go ahead.
現在,我想將電話轉給 Allbirds 投資者關係和業務發展副總裁 Katina Metzidakis。請繼續。
Katina Metzidakis
Katina Metzidakis
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call today are Joey Zwillinger and Tim Brown, Allbirds' Co-Founders and Co-CEOs; and Mike Bufano, Allbirds' Chief Financial Officer.
大家下午好,感謝您加入我們。今天與我通話的是 Allbirds 的聯合創始人兼聯合首席執行官 Joey Zwillinger 和 Tim Brown;和 Allbirds 的首席財務官 Mike Bufano。
Before we start, I'd like to remind you that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about our financial outlook, 2022 and medium-term guidance targets, impact and duration of external headwinds, our Simplification Initiatives and other matters referenced in our earnings release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please also note forward-looking statements reflect our opinions only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call.
在開始之前,我想提醒您,我們今天將做出某些符合聯邦證券法含義的前瞻性聲明,包括關於我們的財務前景、2022 年和中期指導目標、影響和持續時間的聲明外部不利因素、我們的簡化舉措以及我們今天發布的收益報告中提到的其他事項。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果出現重大差異的風險和不確定性。另請注意,前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見,我們不承擔修改任何陳述以反映本次電話會議後發生的變化的義務。
Please refer to our SEC filings including our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2022, for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results.
請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件,包括我們截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日的季度的 10-Q 表格季度報告,以更詳細地描述可能影響我們業績的風險因素。
Also during this call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures that adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. These non-GAAP items should be used in addition to and not as a substitute for any GAAP results. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures to the extent reasonably available in today's earnings release.
同樣在本次電話會議期間,我們將討論調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響的非 GAAP 財務措施。這些非公認會計原則項目應作為任何公認會計原則結果的補充而不是替代。在今天的收益發布中合理可用的範圍內,您將找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息,以及這些非 GAAP 指標與其最直接可比的 GAAP 指標的對賬。
Now I'll turn the call over to Joey to begin the formal remarks.
現在我將把電話轉給喬伊開始正式發言。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining the call today, and a warm welcome to Katina. We're thrilled that you've joined the Flock.
大家下午好。感謝您今天加入電話會議,並熱烈歡迎 Katina。我們很高興你加入了 Flock。
I'm pleased that we delivered solid financial results during the second quarter, in line with our top line guidance and ahead of our EBITDA guidance. Net revenue grew 15% year-over-year or 18% excluding FX headwinds and was driven by strength of our U.S. business, which grew a solid 21% year-over-year. Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $9.2 million. Importantly, Allbirds surpassed $1 billion in lifetime net revenue this quarter, which is an incredible achievement for a brand founded in 2016.
我很高興我們在第二季度交付了穩健的財務業績,符合我們的最高指引並領先於我們的 EBITDA 指引。淨收入同比增長 15% 或不包括外匯逆風的 18%,這得益於我們美國業務的強勁增長,同比增長 21%。我們調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 920 萬美元。重要的是,Allbirds 本季度的終生淨收入超過了 10 億美元,這對於一個成立於 2016 年的品牌來說是一項了不起的成就。
In what continues to be a tough macroeconomic backdrop, we are proud of our growth compared to the category and believe we continue to take share as our products and value proposition continue to resonate. As per product, Q2 also saw the highly successful launch of our first high-performance running shoe, the Flyer. We've made incredible strides in our foray into the performance footwear category with the Dasher, Trail and Flyer franchises, together now comprising 24% of total sales. We believe that now perhaps more than ever, given the record heat waves occurring around the globe, our relentless focus and authentic leadership in the sustainable footwear category truly sets us up and will allow us to win with consumers for years to come.
在仍然嚴峻的宏觀經濟背景下,與該類別相比,我們為我們的增長感到自豪,並相信隨著我們的產品和價值主張繼續引起共鳴,我們將繼續佔據份額。就產品而言,第二季度我們還成功推出了我們的第一款高性能跑鞋 Flyer。我們通過 Dasher、Trail 和 Flyer 特許經營權在進軍高性能鞋類產品方面取得了令人難以置信的進步,現在合計佔總銷售額的 24%。我們相信,鑑於全球正在發生創紀錄的熱浪,我們相信現在可能比以往任何時候都更重要,我們在可持續鞋類領域的不懈關注和真正的領導地位真正讓我們站穩腳跟,並將讓我們在未來幾年贏得消費者的青睞。
Stepping back, I'd like to make a few comments about how we currently see the external environment and how that is informing our view of the second half. Since our May earnings call, persistently high inflation has started to take its toll on consumers. Across our industry, elevated inventory and promotional levels have begun to impact digital and retail traffic trends. Our customer tends to have higher-than-average income, and hence, there was a lag on the impact of inflation, but this trend became notable in the U.S. beginning in the back half of June. .
退後一步,我想就我們目前如何看待外部環境以及這如何影響我們對下半年的看法發表一些評論。自我們 5 月份的財報電話會議以來,持續的高通脹已經開始對消費者造成影響。在我們整個行業,庫存和促銷水平的提高已經開始影響數字和零售流量趨勢。我們的客戶的收入往往高於平均水平,因此通貨膨脹的影響存在滯後,但從 6 月下半月開始,這種趨勢在美國變得明顯。 .
One of the greatest advantages of our business model is that our sophisticated data platform and our direct relationship with our customer allows for rapid visibility into changes in demand signals. As a result, we are likely seeing this slowdown before many others in our industry and, therefore, have been able to pivot sooner.
我們的商業模式的最大優勢之一是我們複雜的數據平台和我們與客戶的直接關係允許快速了解需求信號的變化。因此,我們很可能在我們行業中的許多其他人之前看到這種放緩,因此能夠更快地轉向。
In our international markets, FX headwinds have intensified since May. In China, while COVID restrictions have eased, they are persistent and translating to lower consumer spending now. And sentiment in Europe continues to be negatively impacted by the ripple effects from the Ukraine crisis.
在我們的國際市場,外匯逆風自 5 月以來愈演愈烈。在中國,雖然 COVID 限制有所放鬆,但這些限制仍在持續,並轉化為現在的消費者支出減少。歐洲的情緒繼續受到烏克蘭危機的連鎖反應的負面影響。
As it pertains to our 2022 guidance target, we are taking a conservative view of demand in the second half and proactively managing our business with the assumption that these headwinds will continue through the remainder of 2022. We anticipate that the most significant impact of this change since our last call will come from the U.S.
由於它與我們的 2022 年指導目標有關,我們對下半年的需求持保守看法,並在假設這些不利因素將持續到 2022 年剩餘時間的情況下積極管理我們的業務。我們預計這一變化的最顯著影響因為我們的最後一個電話將來自美國。
In response to this backdrop and current business trends, we have taken a series of actions to set ourselves up to continue delivering strong top line growth while keeping us on our path towards our profitability targets. These actions are intended to have positive impacts across gross and adjusted EBITDA margins and to tighten inventory to more efficiently generate cash. I'll expand on these to give additional color.
為應對這種背景和當前的業務趨勢,我們採取了一系列行動來為自己做好準備,以繼續實現強勁的收入增長,同時保持我們實現盈利目標的道路。這些行動旨在對毛利率和調整後 EBITDA 利潤率產生積極影響,並收緊庫存以更有效地產生現金。我將擴展這些以提供額外的顏色。
First, we are investing in various elements of our supply chain to reduce both cost of goods and our carbon footprint. This includes forming new relationships in our manufacturing base, upgrading to more automated distribution centers and moving to a dedicated returns processing provider in the U.S.
首先,我們正在對供應鏈的各個環節進行投資,以降低商品成本和碳足跡。這包括在我們的製造基地建立新的關係,升級到自動化程度更高的配送中心,以及轉移到美國的專門退貨處理提供商。
Second, we are streamlining our organizational structure and reducing SG&A. In addition to slowing the pace of new hires, which we began doing early in Q2, we made the difficult but prudent decision to reduce global corporate head count by approximately 8%. These reductions in part free us up to shift resources to continue to invest in areas that are critical for long-term demand growth, including product, sourcing and brand marketing.
其次,我們正在精簡組織結構並減少 SG&A。除了放慢新員工的步伐(我們在第二季度初開始這樣做)之外,我們還做出了艱難但謹慎的決定,將全球企業員工人數減少了約 8%。這些減少部分讓我們騰出資源,繼續投資對長期需求增長至關重要的領域,包括產品、採購和品牌營銷。
Overall, we believe these simplification initiatives will optimize our cost structure, enabling us to drive substantial adjusted EBITDA improvement next year. In addition, because of the high-quality nature of our inventory, we feel comfortable taking a leaner approach to our inventory management by tightening the open-to-buy over the next few quarters, increasing turns and focusing on improved free cash flow generation.
總體而言,我們相信這些簡化舉措將優化我們的成本結構,使我們能夠推動明年調整後的 EBITDA 大幅改善。此外,由於我們庫存的高質量特性,我們可以通過在接下來的幾個季度收緊開放購買、增加周轉率並專注於改善自由現金流的產生來採取更精簡的庫存管理方法。
Now I'd like to move on to provide updates on our 3 growth pillars. These pillars remain unchanged and are where we will focus efforts in this dynamic market. As a reminder, these pillars are expanding and energizing our product portfolio, growing our store fleet and scaling our international business.
現在,我想繼續提供有關我們的 3 個增長支柱的最新信息。這些支柱保持不變,是我們將在這個充滿活力的市場中集中精力的地方。提醒一下,這些支柱正在擴大和激發我們的產品組合,擴大我們的商店隊伍並擴大我們的國際業務。
Within product, we will further enhance our emphasis on footwear products and innovation to expand our offering across lifestyle and performance footwear. The highlight from the second quarter was our successful Tree Flyer launch and its unique midsole technology, SwiftFoam. Tim will talk through what's on deck in the second half of the year, why we're excited about our recent materials innovation and how these enable a robust long-term pipeline.
在產品方面,我們將進一步加強對鞋類產品和創新的重視,以擴大我們在生活方式和性能鞋類方面的產品。第二季度的亮點是我們成功推出 Tree Flyer 及其獨特的中底技術 SwiftFoam。 Tim 將討論下半年的進展,為什麼我們對我們最近的材料創新感到興奮,以及這些創新如何實現穩健的長期管道。
Moving to our second growth pillar, stores. We remain pleased with the performance of our U.S. store fleet. Our stores are not only the best expression of the Allbirds brand but are a fantastic customer acquisition tool, all while delivering strong 4-wall economics. Moreover, as we grow our store footprint, we continue to expand our base of valuable omnichannel customers, who spend around 1.5x more than single-channel repeat customers and now comprise approximately 15% of our repeat customer base. During the quarter, our U.S. store sales increased nearly 120% year-over-year.
轉向我們的第二個增長支柱,商店。我們仍然對我們美國商店車隊的表現感到滿意。我們的商店不僅是 Allbirds 品牌的最佳體現,而且是一種出色的客戶獲取工具,同時提供強大的 4 牆經濟性。此外,隨著我們店鋪足蹟的擴大,我們將繼續擴大有價值的全渠道客戶群,他們的消費是單渠道回頭客的 1.5 倍左右,現在約占我們回頭客群的 15%。本季度,我們的美國門店銷售額同比增長近 120%。
We opened 7 stores in Q2, bringing us to a total of 46 as of June 30. To highlight a few, in the U.S., we opened in Fashion Island in Newport Beach in early June, which is our first store in Orange County and seventh in Southern California, and it has exceeded our expectations. As we build stores in the region such as Southern California, we see meaningful gains in awareness, drive strong store economics across the region while substantially lifting overall commerce across channels. We also launched our first-ever store in Canada in Vancouver and opened a second in Toronto just a few days ago. And finally, I'd be remiss if I did not mention our Shanghai-based China team for their incredible execution while on lockdown, managing to launch our fifth store in the city of Hangzhou, which demonstrated our ability to generate high sales productivity and a low CapEx build-out format.
我們在第二季度開設了 7 家門店,截至 6 月 30 日,我們的門店總數達到 46 家。值得一提的是,在美國,我們於 6 月初在紐波特海灘的時尚島開業,這是我們在奧蘭治縣的第一家門店,也是第七家門店。在南加州,它已經超出了我們的預期。當我們在南加州等地區開設門店時,我們看到了知名度的顯著提升,推動了整個地區的強勁門店經濟,同時大幅提升了跨渠道的整體商業。我們還在溫哥華開設了我們在加拿大的第一家商店,並在幾天前在多倫多開設了第二家商店。最後,如果我不提及我們位於上海的中國團隊,他們在封鎖期間的出色執行力,成功地在杭州市開設了我們的第五家門店,這證明了我們有能力產生高銷售效率和低資本支出構建格式。
Moving on to our third growth pillar, scaling our international business. Based on our early investments in Europe and Asia, we continue to view the opportunity in our international business as at least as large as the one in the U.S. We remain steadfast in our conviction that our international expansion will prove to be an early mover advantage, allowing us to define what a sustainable footwear and apparel brand can be for consumers globally.
繼續我們的第三個增長支柱,擴大我們的國際業務。基於我們在歐洲和亞洲的早期投資,我們繼續認為我們的國際業務機會至少與美國的機會一樣大。我們堅信我們的國際擴張將被證明是先發優勢,讓我們能夠為全球消費者定義可持續的鞋類和服裝品牌。
Given the current macro uncertainty and our actions to streamline workflows, we are focusing our resources more heavily in 5 regions: China, Japan, the U.K., Germany and Canada. We are proud of the inroads we are making in China and continue to see it as a key engine for future growth with attractive margins. Japan is experiencing significant consumer spending and FX headwinds, yet our underlying growth is strong. This is encouraging as Japan is an important region to generate global style credibility in addition to its large sales and profit opportunity. In the U.K., we continue to gain traction with growing brand awareness particularly within the 25 to 34 age group. During Q2, we acquired more new e-commerce customers in London than in any other market outside of New York City. In Germany, we have had early success with our partnership with Zalando and are seeing traffic recover in our Berlin store.
鑑於當前宏觀的不確定性以及我們為簡化工作流程而採取的行動,我們正在將資源更多地集中在 5 個地區:中國、日本、英國、德國和加拿大。我們為我們在中國取得的進展感到自豪,並繼續將其視為未來增長的關鍵引擎,具有可觀的利潤率。日本正在經歷重大的消費支出和外匯逆風,但我們的潛在增長強勁。這是令人鼓舞的,因為日本是一個重要的地區,除了其巨大的銷售和利潤機會外,它還可以產生全球風格的信譽。在英國,我們的品牌知名度不斷提高,尤其是在 25 至 34 歲年齡段的人群中,我們繼續受到關注。在第二季度,我們在倫敦獲得的新電子商務客戶比紐約市以外的任何其他市場都多。在德國,我們與 Zalando 的合作取得了初步成功,並且看到我們柏林商店的客流量正在恢復。
In addition to our 3 core growth pillars, we are continuing to expand select third-party distribution as a profitable marketing vehicle for our direct channel with incremental top and bottom line growth over the medium term, albeit with modest impact in 2022. We believe that thoughtful and disciplined expansion into third-party distribution can be a critical lever to help us expand awareness of the Allbirds brand while also building greater credibility in the performance category. While it's still early days for our third-party distribution strategy, we have established initial partnerships with marquee retailers, including Nordstrom, Zalando, Public Lands and SCHEELS, all of which are off to a strong start.
除了我們的 3 個核心增長支柱外,我們將繼續擴大精選第三方分銷,將其作為我們直接渠道的盈利營銷工具,在中期內實現收入和底線增長,儘管在 2022 年影響不大。我們認為深思熟慮和有紀律地向第三方分銷擴張可以成為幫助我們擴大 Allbirds 品牌知名度的關鍵槓桿,同時也在表演類別中建立更大的可信度。雖然我們的第三方分銷戰略還處於初期階段,但我們已經與包括 Nordstrom、Zalando、Public Lands 和 SCHEELS 在內的大型零售商建立了初步合作夥伴關係,所有這些都開局良好。
Prospective partners view our brand as an exciting new growth lever for their businesses and also a way to express their own commitment to environmental values, helping them meet this growing demand from their shoppers. When we evaluate future partners, we focus most importantly on the consumer that shops there and look for both credibility with those consumers and reach to a new group who we haven't met through our own direct channels.
潛在合作夥伴將我們的品牌視為其業務令人興奮的新增長槓桿,也是表達他們對環境價值承諾的一種方式,幫助他們滿足購物者日益增長的需求。當我們評估未來的合作夥伴時,我們最重要的是關注在那裡購物的消費者,並在這些消費者中尋找可信度,並通過我們自己的直接渠道接觸到我們沒有見過的新群體。
This includes accessing geographies that we don't expect to reach with our brick-and-mortar stores. A good example of that is our partnership with SCHEELS, which is a premium regional chain in locations where we do not expect to build stores for many years, if ever. We then focus on partners that present our brand in a compelling and prominent manner, such as our recent activation in the high-visibility Center Stage at Nordstrom's flagship store in New York City. And finally, we show preference to retailers who are committed to improving their environmental impact.
這包括訪問我們不希望通過我們的實體店到達的地理區域。一個很好的例子是我們與 SCHEELS 的合作關係,這是一個優質的區域連鎖店,在我們預計多年不會開店的地方,如果有的話。然後,我們專注於以引人注目和突出的方式展示我們品牌的合作夥伴,例如我們最近在紐約市 Nordstrom 旗艦店的高知名度中心舞台上進行的活動。最後,我們偏愛致力於改善環境影響的零售商。
Looking ahead in the coming weeks, we will be launching an exciting new partnership with Selfridges in London, a key shopping destination for global trendsetters, which should help drive significant brand heat. And we will continue to update you as we get closer to launch this with other marquee partners.
展望未來幾週,我們將在倫敦與 Selfridges 建立激動人心的新合作夥伴關係,倫敦是全球潮流引領者的主要購物目的地,這將有助於推動品牌熱度。隨著我們越來越接近與其他選取框合作夥伴推出此功能,我們將繼續為您提供最新信息。
In closing, I am incredibly proud that we've grown Allbirds into a beloved brand. Consumer-focused innovation is the lifeblood of great consumer companies, and we believe that our innovative, sustainable approach to footwear and apparel is truly what sets us apart. I believe that one of the most important characteristics of an innovative company is the ability to quick remind what is working and what misses the mark and having the agility and prudence to pivot accordingly.
最後,我非常自豪我們已經將 Allbirds 發展成為一個深受喜愛的品牌。以消費者為中心的創新是偉大的消費者公司的命脈,我們相信我們對鞋類和服裝的創新、可持續的方法確實讓我們與眾不同。我認為,創新型公司最重要的特徵之一是能夠快速提醒什麼是有效的,什麼是錯誤的,並具有相應的敏捷性和審慎性。
Today's announcement of our Simplification Initiatives shows our team's ability to proactively manage this dynamic demand environment and position us for continued success even amidst a difficult landscape. Importantly and despite the increasingly challenged consumer backdrop, we have several proof points that I and other members of our executive leadership team track, that show that our fundamental model is working.
今天宣布的簡化計劃表明我們的團隊有能力主動管理這種動態的需求環境,即使在困難的環境中,我們也能繼續取得成功。重要的是,儘管消費者背景日益受到挑戰,但我和我們的執行領導團隊的其他成員追踪的幾個證據表明我們的基本模式正在發揮作用。
As a consumer-obsessed company we look to maintain a best-in-class NPS, which we have continued to deliver. We also focus on repeat purchase rate, which is strong at over 40%. That lets us know that our customers love our products. Similarly, we also track customer LTV, which continues to grow as we provide new products that our customers love and offer them additional occasions to buy in our stores and, more recently, in our third-party partner stores.
作為一家痴迷於消費者的公司,我們希望保持一流的 NPS,我們將繼續提供這種服務。我們還關注重複購買率,超過 40%。這讓我們知道我們的客戶喜歡我們的產品。同樣,我們還跟踪客戶 LTV,隨著我們提供客戶喜愛的新產品並為他們提供更多在我們的商店以及最近在我們的第三方合作夥伴商店購買的機會,客戶 LTV 繼續增長。
These metrics demonstrate a best-in-class customer experience with a modern distribution model, all inside an enormous and growing addressable market, where we still have low double-digit awareness. Collectively, this gives us great confidence in our future potential. I firmly believe that the strength of our operating model will continue to propel us towards our medium-term financial and sustainability target, and we continue to win with consumers that we believe are increasingly aligned with the core tenets of the Allbirds brand.
這些指標展示了現代分銷模式的一流客戶體驗,所有這些都在一個巨大且不斷增長的潛在市場中,我們仍然擁有較低的兩位數認知度。總的來說,這讓我們對未來的潛力充滿信心。我堅信,我們運營模式的實力將繼續推動我們實現中期財務和可持續發展目標,我們將繼續贏得消費者的青睞,我們認為這些消費者越來越符合 Allbirds 品牌的核心原則。
With that, I'll turn it over to Tim.
有了這個,我會把它交給蒂姆。
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Thanks, Joey, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝,喬伊,大家下午好。
I'm excited to update you today on the steps we are taking to reinforce our brand positioning of supernatural comfort. We are proud of how quickly we were able to become a leading source for sustainable footwear and establish Allbirds as a standard bureau for the industry.
今天我很高興向您介紹我們為加強超自然舒適的品牌定位而採取的措施。我們為能夠如此迅速地成為可持續鞋類的主要來源並將 Allbirds 建立為行業標準機構而感到自豪。
Our relentless focus on innovation has been key to our success. 2022 was no exception and, as we shared in prior calls, is shaping up to be the strongest year in our history for new product launches. The successful launch of Tree Flyer in Q2 represented our third performance shoe for running. The Flyer is lightweight, bouncy and super comfortable, bringing a powerful combination of performance, style and natural material innovation to our consumers who want an expanded offering to complement our Dasher and Trail Runner franchises. We know that if we're going to make a running shoe, it has to be extraordinary, and so we spent more than 2.5 years researching, designing, testing and iterating to create a running shoe that is a key building block of our performance journey.
我們對創新的不懈關注是我們成功的關鍵。 2022 年也不例外,正如我們在之前的電話會議中所分享的那樣,它將成為我們歷史上新產品發布最強勁的一年。第二季度 Tree Flyer 的成功推出代表了我們第三款性能跑鞋。 Flyer 輕巧、有彈性且超級舒適,為我們的消費者帶來了性能、風格和天然材料創新的強大組合,他們希望擴大產品範圍以補充我們的 Dasher 和 Trail Runner 特許經營權。我們知道,如果我們要製造一款跑鞋,它必須是非凡的,因此我們花費了超過 2.5 年的時間來研究、設計、測試和迭代,打造一款跑鞋,它是我們性能之旅的關鍵組成部分.
Made with revolutionary SwiftFoam technology, the Flyer represents a big moment for Allbirds and another groundbreaking step forward for our values, our purpose and our journey to meet consumer demand for natural material innovation in the category. SwiftFoam is a first of its kind bio Pebax midsole technology using plant-based castor bean oils, enabling an estimated 20% reduction in carbon footprint versus petroleum-based synthetic alternatives.
Flyer 採用革命性的 SwiftFoam 技術製造,代表了 Allbirds 的一個重要時刻,也是我們的價值觀、我們的目標和我們滿足消費者對該類別中天然材料創新需求的旅程的又一突破性步驟。 SwiftFoam 是首個使用植物性蓖麻油的生物 Pebax 中底技術,與基於石油的合成替代品相比,碳足跡估計減少了 20%。
We believe that Tree Flyer's bouncy, airy SwiftFoam midsoles are among the most responsive, lightest weight and most energy efficient to produce midsoles on the market.
我們相信,Tree Flyer 的有彈性、透氣的 SwiftFoam 中底是市場上生產中底時響應速度最快、重量最輕且最節能的中底之一。
And kudos to our teams for bringing the Flyer to life on yet another new Allbirds materials platform that delivers both unique consumer benefits alongside significant advancement towards our sustainability objectives. Cracking this code and meeting an expanded running use case opens up a substantial opportunity for us to build an enduring competitive moat in the performance category.
感謝我們的團隊在另一個新的 Allbirds 材料平台上將 Flyer 帶入生活,該平台提供了獨特的消費者利益,同時顯著推進了我們的可持續發展目標。破解此代碼並滿足擴展的運行用例為我們在性能類別中建立持久的競爭護城河開闢了重要機會。
And the response from both consumers and media alike has been overwhelmingly positive. In fact, 43% of Flyer sales in the first 30 days post launch were to new customers, which we believe is a strong proof point that our performance offering is not only resonating with our existing audience but bringing new customers into the Allbirds brand. We also delivered some exciting brand heat moments in the quarter with the launch of our Allbirds x Rosie Assoulin Sugar Sliders and limited edition pink Flyers, which were a top-selling style in the quarter thanks to a cheeky ad we launched with actress Lindsay Lohan.
消費者和媒體的反應都非常積極。事實上,Flyer 在發布後的前 30 天內有 43% 的銷售額是針對新客戶的,我們認為這有力地證明了我們的性能產品不僅能引起現有受眾的共鳴,還能將新客戶帶入 Allbirds 品牌。我們還通過推出 Allbirds x Rosie Assoulin Sugar Sliders 和限量版粉色 Flyers 在本季度帶來了一些激動人心的品牌熱度時刻,這要歸功於我們與女演員 Lindsay Lohan 一起推出的厚顏無恥的廣告,它們是本季度最暢銷的款式。
And just this past month, due to overwhelmingly popular demand, we relaunched our children's Smallbirds shoes with updated styles as a permanent collection, with an extended offering to cover toddler and youth sizing.
就在上個月,由於非常受歡迎的需求,我們重新推出了具有更新款式的兒童 Smallbirds 鞋作為永久系列,並擴展了涵蓋幼兒和青少年尺碼的產品。
Turning now to apparel. We are sharpening our focus and refining our offering going forward. I think it's important to take a moment to ground everyone in the origins of our apparel strategy. First and foremost, we know our Allbirds customers have a desire for apparel, and we also know that having apparel increases average order value and lifetime value. When we decided to connect our successful footwear franchises to apparel offerings, we leverage unique natural materials to deliver next-to-skin comfort, a consistent hallmark of the Allbirds brand. This is reflected in the success of some of our core apparel offerings, including our socks, underwear, our classic T-shirts and sweats, which continue to perform well as expansions of our material platforms and articulations of supernatural comfort.
現在轉向服裝。我們正在加強我們的重點並改進我們的產品。我認為花點時間讓每個人都了解我們服裝戰略的起源是很重要的。首先,我們知道我們的 Allbirds 客戶對服裝有需求,而且我們也知道擁有服裝可以提高平均訂單價值和終身價值。當我們決定將我們成功的鞋類特許經營權與服裝產品聯繫起來時,我們利用獨特的天然材料來提供貼身的舒適感,這是 Allbirds 品牌的一貫標誌。這反映在我們的一些核心服裝產品的成功上,包括我們的襪子、內衣、我們的經典 T 恤和運動衫,這些產品在我們的材料平台的擴展和超自然舒適的表達中繼續表現良好。
As we look back on our apparel journey, there are a couple of key learnings we're bringing forward to our next generation of product. First, we went too deep on leggings, an incredibly competitive category. Second, we were overly focused on narrow-end use cases and have come to understand our customers want items that provide versatility across occasions that our material innovation supports. Finally, given the strong sell-through data, we know that our customer values and prefers classic seasonless items such as tees that complement our footwear offering.
當我們回顧我們的服裝之旅時,我們正在為我們的下一代產品帶來一些關鍵的學習經驗。首先,我們在緊身褲上過於深入,這是一個極具競爭力的類別。其次,我們過度關注窄端用例,並開始了解我們的客戶想要在我們的材料創新支持的場合提供多功能性的產品。最後,鑑於強勁的銷售數據,我們知道我們的客戶重視並更喜歡經典的無季節商品,例如與我們的鞋類產品相輔相成的 T 卹。
Going forward, we will focus on a simplified lineup of apparel that showcases the versatility of our natural materials. Our Gen 1 assortment was less than half the evergreen product. With our Gen 2 collections, a vast majority of the assortment will be evergreen products, which requires less seasonal merchandising and simplifies our buying process. We'll be leaning into classic everyday styles that emphasize functionality and versatility, and we will sunset our leggings offering. Similar to our successful footwear strategy, we will continue to focus on the key material platforms that can be leveraged across multiple products.
展望未來,我們將專注於展示我們天然材料多功能性的簡化服裝系列。我們的 Gen 1 分類不到常青產品的一半。在我們的 Gen 2 系列中,絕大多數品種將是常青產品,這需要更少的季節性商品並簡化我們的購買流程。我們將傾向於強調功能性和多功能性的經典日常款式,我們將取消我們的緊身褲產品。與我們成功的鞋類戰略類似,我們將繼續專注於可用於多種產品的關鍵材料平台。
On a separate note, I'm excited to share that we are launching a new design and product hub in Portland, Oregon. This office will serve as the creative headquarters for the majority of our design and product development teams, enabling us to centralize resources, operate with greater agility and access world-class talent in the Greater Portland area.
另外,我很高興與大家分享我們正在俄勒岡州波特蘭市推出一個新的設計和產品中心。該辦公室將作為我們大多數設計和產品開發團隊的創意總部,使我們能夠集中資源,以更大的敏捷性運營,並在大波特蘭地區獲得世界一流的人才。
Moving forward, we remain committed to investing in our product and innovation teams, which play a critical role in the continued success of Allbirds. Later this year, we will be introducing our plant leather platform with the rollout of a new lifestyle franchise, which will represent a new and more contemporary style moment for Allbirds. This is just a teaser of what's to come. We'll have more to discuss on our Q3 earnings call, but needless to say, we're excited to be bringing yet another groundbreaking Allbirds franchise to market.
展望未來,我們將繼續致力於投資於我們的產品和創新團隊,這在 Allbirds 的持續成功中發揮著關鍵作用。今年晚些時候,我們將推出我們的植物皮革平台,推出新的生活方式特許經營權,這將代表 Allbirds 一個新的、更現代的風格時刻。這只是即將發生的事情的預告片。我們將在第三季度財報電話會議上討論更多內容,但不用說,我們很高興能夠將另一個開創性的 Allbirds 特許經營權推向市場。
In 2023, we have more on deck in both our lifestyle and performance categories. As we matrix our materials across silhouettes, we have a big opportunity to create families of products and associated pricing tiers across different lifestyle and performance occasions. We believe this investment in innovation and materials platforms continues to be our most powerful and durable competitive moat.
到 2023 年,我們在生活方式和表現類別上都有更多的準備工作。當我們將我們的材料組合到不同的輪廓中時,我們有很大的機會在不同的生活方式和表演場合創建產品系列和相關的定價層。我們相信,對創新和材料平台的投資仍然是我們最強大、最持久的競爭護城河。
Now over to Mike to discuss the financials.
現在請邁克討論財務問題。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Thanks, Tim, and hello, everyone. We are pleased that we delivered on our net revenue guidance target and beat our adjusted EBITDA guidance target in the quarter. Our ability to deliver these results in this incredibly dynamic operating environment shows us that the underlying competitive moats Tim just mentioned are indeed durable. The Simplification Initiatives announced today will allow us to continue to invest in the customer while we navigate the external headwinds and work towards achieving our medium-term targets.
謝謝蒂姆,大家好。我們很高興我們實現了淨收入指導目標,並在本季度超過了調整後的 EBITDA 指導目標。我們在這個令人難以置信的動態運營環境中提供這些結果的能力向我們表明,蒂姆剛剛提到的潛在競爭護城河確實是持久的。今天宣布的簡化計劃將使我們能夠繼續投資於客戶,同時克服外部不利因素並努力實現我們的中期目標。
Going deeper into our Q2 results. Net revenue grew by 15% versus last year, 18% excluding the impact of FX rates. Our 2-year growth rate accelerated to 55% versus Q2 2020.
深入了解我們的第二季度業績。淨收入與去年相比增長了 15%,其中不包括外匯匯率的影響為 18%。與 2020 年第二季度相比,我們的 2 年增長率加速至 55%。
The growth in Q2 was equally balanced between orders and AOV, with AOVs driven by a combination of price increases and increased units per order due in great part to core apparel offerings.
第二季度的增長在訂單和 AOV 之間同樣平衡,AOV 是由價格上漲和每個訂單單位數量增加共同推動的,這在很大程度上是由於核心服裝產品。
The price increase we implemented in March has broadly played out in line with our expectations, with the increase in price more than offsetting any short-term elasticity. This speaks to the strength of our brand and the quality of our product offering.
我們在 3 月份實施的價格上漲大致符合我們的預期,價格上漲抵消了任何短期彈性。這說明了我們品牌的實力和我們產品的質量。
Net revenue growth by region was consistent with our expectations, with international flat and the U.S. growing 21%. Our international business was again pressured by external headwinds. In the U.S., the primary driver of growth was the retail channel, which continues to perform well.
按地區劃分的淨收入增長與我們的預期一致,國際持平,美國增長 21%。我們的國際業務再次受到外部不利因素的壓力。在美國,增長的主要動力是零售渠道,該渠道繼續表現良好。
Given the U.S. consumer dynamics Joey outlined earlier, I'd like to provide some color on our recent monthly trends. For May to June, we saw a sequential slowdown in total company net revenue growth from the mid-20s to the mid-teens. This was driven by our U.S. business, which began to slow starting in the back half of June. As of today, these trends have not yet abated. Our read on the data is that this slowdown corresponds to a broader slowdown in U.S. discretionary goods spending specifically in footwear. In other words, we do not believe we are alone in experiencing these dynamics in our U.S. business.
鑑於喬伊早些時候概述的美國消費者動態,我想為我們最近的月度趨勢提供一些顏色。從 5 月到 6 月,我們看到公司總淨收入增長從 20 年代中期到 10 年代中期連續放緩。這是由我們的美國業務推動的,該業務從 6 月下半月開始放緩。時至今日,這些趨勢仍未減弱。我們對數據的解讀是,這種放緩對應於美國可自由支配商品支出的更廣泛放緩,特別是鞋類支出。換句話說,我們不相信我們是唯一在美國業務中經歷這些動態的人。
Looking at adjusted gross profit. Q2 increased by 4% to $40 million with adjusted gross margin at 51%, down 519 basis points to Q2 of last year. The main drivers are an estimated 400 basis points of year-over-year COVID-related cost headwinds as well as a lower mix of sales in our margin-accretive international business. These factors were partially offset by mix shift to physical retail and higher-margin products as well as the price increase. Wrapping up Q2, adjusted EBITDA was negative $9.2 million, ahead of our guidance target range due to tight management of corporate SG&A.
看調整後的毛利潤。第二季度增長 4% 至 4000 萬美元,調整後的毛利率為 51%,比去年第二季度下降 519 個基點。主要驅動因素是與去年同期相比與 COVID 相關的成本逆風估計 400 個基點,以及我們增加利潤的國際業務的銷售組合較低。這些因素被向實體零售和高利潤產品的混合轉變以及價格上漲部分抵消。結束第二季度,調整後的 EBITDA 為負 920 萬美元,高於我們的指導目標範圍,原因是對企業 SG&A 的嚴格管理。
I'd like to now provide more detail about our Simplification Initiatives, starting with why we're proactively taking these actions now. It starts with our belief that we have a beloved brand, great products, durable competitive moats and a powerful business model. We believe that at the time of our IPO, and we believe it with even greater conviction today. In light of how the operating environment has changed over the last quarter and continues to evolve, the reality is that to be good financial stewards, we have to take quick and decisive steps to ensure that we can drive the business towards our medium-term targets.
我現在想提供有關我們的簡化計劃的更多詳細信息,首先是我們現在主動採取這些行動的原因。它始於我們相信我們擁有受人喜愛的品牌、優質的產品、持久的競爭護城河和強大的商業模式。我們在首次公開募股時相信這一點,今天我們更加堅信這一點。鑑於上個季度的經營環境發生了怎樣的變化並繼續發展,現實情況是,要成為優秀的財務管家,我們必須採取快速而果斷的步驟,以確保我們能夠推動業務朝著我們的中期目標邁進.
As we said last quarter, we remain steadfast in our belief that there are several paths by which Allbirds can achieve those targets. Said simply, the destination has not changed, but the route we need to take over the next several quarters to reach that destination has. Joey discussed the strategic rationale for the Simplification Initiatives. I would like to discuss how they will positively impact our cost structure going forward.
正如我們上個季度所說,我們仍然堅信 Allbirds 可以通過多種途徑實現這些目標。簡單的說,目的地沒有變,只是接下來幾個季度我們需要接管的路線才能到達那個目的地。 Joey 討論了簡化計劃的戰略原理。我想討論它們將如何對我們未來的成本結構產生積極影響。
Starting with the supply chain initiatives, the transition to automated DCs and a dedicated returns processor will provide greater cost predictability in the second half of 2022 and should begin to positively impact adjusted gross margin as soon as 2023. The more rapid scaling of our manufacturing network should begin to meaningfully reduce product costs by late 2023. Taken together, we believe these initiatives can keep us on track to achieve our medium-term target of 60%-plus gross margin in our direct business and make up some of the ground we lost to the COVID-related headwinds in 2021 and 2022.
從供應鏈計劃開始,向自動化 DC 和專用退貨處理器的過渡將在 2022 年下半年提供更大的成本可預測性,並且最早應在 2023 年開始對調整後的毛利率產生積極影響。我們製造網絡的更快擴展應該在 2023 年底之前開始顯著降低產品成本。總而言之,我們相信這些舉措可以使我們保持正軌,以實現我們的直接業務毛利率超過 60% 的中期目標,並彌補我們失去的一些基礎應對 2021 年和 2022 年與 COVID 相關的不利因素。
Moving to the SG&A initiatives. The steps we've taken to simplify our operating structure and reduce office space are expected to generate annualized corporate SG&A savings of $13 million to $15 million and will allow us to continue to invest in marketing spend as well as that talent across product, brand and sourcing. The 2022 impact of these actions is approximately $4 million to $5 million and is factored into our updated 2022 guidance.
轉向 SG&A 計劃。我們為簡化運營結構和減少辦公空間而採取的措施預計將每年節省 1300 萬至 1500 萬美元的企業 SG&A,並使我們能夠繼續投資於營銷支出以及跨產品、品牌和採購。這些行動對 2022 年的影響約為 400 萬至 500 萬美元,並已納入我們更新的 2022 年指導。
There are nonrecurring costs associated with the Simplification Initiatives. We expect most of these to be incurred in 2022, but we'll keep investors updated on our progress. Let me walk you through our current estimates of those expenses.
有與簡化舉措相關的非經常性成本。我們預計其中大部分將在 2022 年發生,但我們將讓投資者了解我們的進展。讓我帶你看看我們目前對這些費用的估計。
One, we are liquidating end-of-life inventory, primarily first-generation apparel. We expect the nonrecurring net expense related to this liquidation to be $12 million to $14 million. The bulk of that expense already came through as a noncash charge of $11.6 million in Q2.
一,我們正在清算報廢庫存,主要是第一代服裝。我們預計與此次清算相關的非經常性淨費用為 1200 萬美元至 1400 萬美元。其中大部分費用已經在第二季度以 1160 萬美元的非現金費用支付。
Two, in Q3 and Q4, there will be $3 million to $5 million of nonrecurring SG&A expenses associated with employee-related expenses, reducing office space and other projects. We estimate that there will be another $3 million to $5 million associated with the transition to the automated DCs and the dedicated returns processor.
第二,在第三季度和第四季度,將有 300 萬至 500 萬美元的非經常性 SG&A 費用與員工相關費用、減少辦公空間和其他項目相關。我們估計還有 300 萬到 500 萬美元與向自動化 DC 和專用退貨處理器的過渡相關。
Summing that up, we expect the total nonrecurring net costs associated with the Simplification Initiatives to be $18 million to $24 million. I'd like to close this section by again emphasizing that we are taking these steps to optimize our cost structure and set us up for significant adjusted EBITDA improvement in 2023.
綜上所述,我們預計與簡化計劃相關的非經常性淨成本總額為 1800 萬至 2400 萬美元。我想通過再次強調我們正在採取這些措施來優化我們的成本結構並為我們在 2023 年顯著改善調整後的 EBITDA 做好準備,從而結束本節。
Taking a look at the balance sheet. We ended Q2 with $122 million of inventory, which was up 3% from the end of Q1. While shipping times have improved somewhat, in-transit continues to account for about 1/3 of our total inventory. Adding more color here, included in that $122 million is about $10 million of end-of-life product that we plan to liquidate as part of the Simplification Initiatives.
看看資產負債表。我們在第二季度末的庫存為 1.22 億美元,比第一季度末增長了 3%。雖然運輸時間有所改善,但在途仍占我們總庫存的 1/3 左右。在這裡添加更多色彩,包括在 1.22 億美元中,大約是 1000 萬美元的報廢產品,我們計劃將其作為簡化計劃的一部分進行清算。
Looking at the remaining $112 million, this is good inventory, primarily core evergreen footwear. In this dynamic demand environment, we will buy tighter on core footwear for the next few quarters, enabling us to make calculated buys on new footwear styles. This tighter buying approach, when coupled with our selected promotional strategy, is expected to lead to lower inventory levels and improved turns.
看看剩下的 1.12 億美元,這是很好的庫存,主要是核心常青鞋類。在這種動態的需求環境中,我們將在接下來的幾個季度中對核心鞋類進行採購,從而使我們能夠對新鞋類款式進行有計劃的購買。這種更嚴格的採購方式與我們選擇的促銷策略相結合,預計將導致庫存水平降低並改善周轉率。
We ended Q2 with $207 million of cash. To be clear, the majority of the nonrecurring expenses outlined earlier are noncash and will not have a material impact on our cash needs. With mid-teens revenue growth this year, slower SG&A spending, improved inventory turns and tighter buying, we expect free cash flow to improve and do not anticipate having any incremental cash need in the foreseeable future as we have ample cash to fund our growth initiatives.
我們以 2.07 億美元的現金結束了第二季度。需要明確的是,前面列出的大部分非經常性費用都是非現金的,不會對我們的現金需求產生重大影響。由於今年收入增長適中、SG&A 支出放緩、庫存周轉改善和採購趨緊,我們預計自由現金流將改善,並且預計在可預見的未來不會有任何增量現金需求,因為我們有充足的現金來資助我們的增長計劃.
I'd like to now share some thoughts on our guidance targets. Until we have more certainty around the length and severity of the external headwinds, which now include the slowdown in U.S. consumer spending, we will continue to take a cautious approach with our 2022 guidance targets.
我現在想就我們的指導目標分享一些想法。在我們更加確定外部不利因素的持續時間和嚴重程度之前,包括美國消費者支出放緩,我們將繼續對 2022 年的指導目標採取謹慎態度。
There are 3 elements driving our outlook. First, we now estimate a $20 million to $25 million full year impact on international net revenue from external headwinds. Worsening FX rates are driving the entire increase from our prior estimate of $15 million to $20 million. Second, we anticipate that the U.S. consumer discretionary spending trends will worsen in the back half of the year. And third, in a demand environment like this, we know it's critical to stay nimble and meet customers where they are. We will continue to be thoughtful about our selective promotional strategy, but we do believe the competitive environment will require an increased level of promotional activity especially in Q4.
有 3 個因素推動我們的前景。首先,我們現在估計外部不利因素對國際淨收入的全年影響為 2000 萬至 2500 萬美元。不斷惡化的外匯匯率正在推動整個增長從我們之前估計的 1500 萬美元增加到 2000 萬美元。其次,我們預計美國消費者可自由支配支出趨勢將在下半年惡化。第三,在這樣的需求環境中,我們知道保持敏捷並滿足客戶的需求至關重要。我們將繼續考慮我們的選擇性促銷策略,但我們相信競爭環境將需要提高促銷活動水平,尤其是在第四季度。
We know that for Allbirds, promotions introduce the brand to new customers, drive demand and efficiently move inventory. We are beginning to implement an expanded promotional calendar to include a more typical customer-centric cadence around holidays as well as markdowns on end-of-season or last-call products. To be clear, we will still be selective with promotions and for the full year anticipate full price yield in our direct channels of approximately 85% to 90%, which we believe is in line with or higher than other premium brands.
我們知道,對於 Allbirds,促銷活動將品牌介紹給新客戶,推動需求並有效轉移庫存。我們開始實施擴展的促銷日曆,包括更典型的以客戶為中心的節假日節奏,以及季末或最後電話產品的降價促銷。需要明確的是,我們仍將選擇性地進行促銷,全年預計我們直接渠道的全價收益率約為 85% 至 90%,我們認為這與其他高端品牌持平或更高。
One housekeeping note. Our guidance targets exclude any nonrecurring revenue and costs associated with the Simplification Initiatives. Our updated 2022 adjusted net revenue guidance target is $305 million to $315 million, up 10% to 14% versus 2021 including an estimated year-over-year FX impact of 275 to 350 basis points. We continue to target opening 16 to 17 new stores in 2022. Our updated 2022 adjusted gross profit guidance target is $150 million to $157.5 million. At the midpoint of our revenue and gross profit targets, this represents an adjusted gross margin target of 49.6%. The changes from our prior target are business segment mix and a modestly increased level of promotional activity. Our updated 2022 adjusted EBITDA guidance target is negative $42.5 million to negative $37.5 million. The change from our prior target reflects the flow-through of lower revenue and gross margin partially offset by corporate SG&A savings from the Simplification Initiatives.
一份家政記錄。我們的指導目標不包括與簡化計劃相關的任何非經常性收入和成本。我們更新後的 2022 年調整後淨收入指導目標為 3.05 億美元至 3.15 億美元,比 2021 年增長 10% 至 14%,包括估計的 275 至 350 個基點的同比外匯影響。我們的目標是在 2022 年開設 16 至 17 家新店。我們更新後的 2022 年調整後毛利潤指導目標為 1.5 億美元至 1.575 億美元。在我們的收入和毛利目標的中點,這代表調整後的毛利率目標為 49.6%。我們先前目標的變化是業務部門組合和適度增加的促銷活動水平。我們更新後的 2022 年調整後 EBITDA 指導目標為負 4250 萬美元至負 3750 萬美元。我們先前目標的變化反映了較低的收入和毛利率的流動,部分被簡化舉措帶來的企業 SG&A 節省所抵消。
Looking briefly at Q3. Our adjusted net revenue guidance target is $65 million to $70 million, up 4% to 12% versus Q3 2021 including an estimated year-over-year FX impact of 225 to 300 basis points. Our Q3 adjusted EBITDA guidance target is negative $17.5 million to negative $15.5 million.
簡要回顧第三季度。我們調整後的淨收入指導目標為 6500 萬美元至 7000 萬美元,與 2021 年第三季度相比增長 4% 至 12%,其中包括估計的 225 至 300 個基點的同比外匯影響。我們第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 指導目標為負 1750 萬美元至負 1550 萬美元。
Let me add a few more thoughts to help you model out the second half. First, in the second half, total adjusted net revenue growth is targeted to be in the mid- to high single digits. We expect the U.S. and international to grow at similar rates for the balance of the year. Second, for the full year, we are now targeting international to grow low to mid-single digits and the U.S. business to grow mid-teens. We expect the second half slowdown in the U.S. to impact digital and retail equally. Finally, on an absolute basis, we expect adjusted gross margin to moderate sequentially in Q3 and then strengthen sequentially in Q4.
讓我再添加一些想法來幫助您模擬下半場。首先,下半年調整後的總收入淨增長目標是中高個位數。我們預計美國和國際市場將在今年餘下時間以相似的速度增長。其次,就全年而言,我們現在的目標是國際業務增長到中個位數,美國業務增長到十幾歲。我們預計美國下半年的放緩將對數字和零售產生同樣的影響。最後,在絕對基礎上,我們預計調整後的毛利率將在第三季度環比放緩,然後在第四季度環比上升。
Let me close by acknowledging that this is a meaningful change to our 2022 guidance targets compared to what we were expecting at the start of the year. The reality is that the world and the operating environment have also changed meaningfully in the past 6 months. We believe that the external headwinds our industry is currently facing will pass and do not change our long-term story. We are a sustainability leader in an attractive market with a massive whitespace opportunity to grow brand awareness from low double digits.
最後讓我承認,與我們在年初的預期相比,這是對我們 2022 年指導目標的有意義的改變。現實情況是,在過去 6 個月裡,世界和運營環境也發生了重大變化。我們相信,我們行業目前面臨的外部逆風將會過去,不會改變我們的長期故事。我們是一個有吸引力的市場中的可持續發展領導者,擁有巨大的空白機會,可以從低兩位數提高品牌知名度。
During this consumer downturn, we are investing and building brand momentum through product innovation, marketing, retail stores and marquee third-party partnerships. We are confident that these investments in the customer, coupled with the Simplification Initiatives, will allow us to navigate this environment, position us well when the headwinds pass and help us continue to make progress towards our medium-term targets. Again, the destination has not changed, but the route we need to take over the next several quarters to reach that destination has.
在這次消費低迷時期,我們正在通過產品創新、營銷、零售店和大型第三方合作夥伴關係進行投資並建立品牌勢頭。我們相信,這些對客戶的投資,加上簡化計劃,將使我們能夠駕馭這種環境,在逆風過去時讓我們處於有利位置,並幫助我們繼續朝著我們的中期目標取得進展。再一次,目的地沒有改變,但是我們需要在接下來的幾個季度中到達那個目的地的路線已經改變了。
Thank you for hanging with us for longer-than-usual prepared remarks. Let's open up the call for questions.
感謝您與我們一起準備比平時更長的評論。讓我們打開提問的電話。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) The first question will be from Alex Straton from Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alex Straton。
Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate
Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate
I just wanted to touch on the demand evolution in the quarter. It sounds like you guys saw a slowdown to that mid-teens rate in the back half of June, and that continued through July. So I just want to understand, first, is that right, you didn't see further deceleration? And then second, could you guys just talk -- you mentioned you had some data points that told you about the slowdown earlier. So maybe tell us what were those data points and how are you monitoring them now and going forward.
我只是想談談本季度的需求演變。聽起來你們在 6 月下半月看到了十幾歲的速度放緩,這種情況一直持續到 7 月。所以我只想明白,首先,是不是,你沒有看到進一步減速?然後第二個,你們能談談嗎 - 你提到你有一些數據點告訴你早些時候的放緩。因此,也許可以告訴我們這些數據點是什麼,以及您現在和未來如何監控它們。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. Alex, yes, thanks for the question. So that's correct. We saw the slowdown really start to hit. Back part of June, kind of after Father's Day, it just seemed like people's behavior just started to change especially on the balance of goods spending versus services spending. We primarily started to see that in some of our own direct data, but there's also a few other like data points that we look at. So Joey, do you want to jump in and talk a bit more about that?
是的。亞歷克斯,是的,謝謝你的問題。所以這是正確的。我們看到經濟放緩真的開始襲來。早在 6 月,在父親節之後,人們的行為似乎剛剛開始發生變化,尤其是在商品支出與服務支出的平衡方面。我們主要開始在我們自己的一些直接數據中看到這一點,但我們也看到了一些其他類似的數據點。那麼喬伊,你想跳進去多談談嗎?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. I mean, Alex, thanks for the question. Most of it is just related to our business model and the investment we've made in a really rich data ecosystem. So we see virtually all of our transactions happen between us and the consumer, and we've developed and invested in significant data ecosystem such that we can compare on a huge number of KPIs what we should expect to see from a trend perspective and what we are seeing. And that gives us a speed and agility to understand what's happening with the consumer, and any deviation we can usually pivot quite quickly. And that might pertain to marketing spend or a whole bunch of other actions that we're taking.
是的。我的意思是,亞歷克斯,謝謝你的問題。其中大部分只是與我們的商業模式以及我們在一個非常豐富的數據生態系統中所做的投資有關。因此,我們看到幾乎所有的交易都發生在我們和消費者之間,我們已經開發並投資了重要的數據生態系統,這樣我們就可以比較大量的 KPI,從趨勢的角度來看我們應該看到什麼,以及我們應該看到什麼。正在看。這使我們能夠快速靈活地了解消費者正在發生的事情,以及我們通常可以很快轉向的任何偏差。這可能與營銷支出或我們正在採取的一系列其他行動有關。
And that one persisted, and we saw it pretty consistent across a number of metrics. And I'll say it was true in our digital trends, and it also happened in physical retail. So that's why we wanted to reflect that and make it clear.
而且那個持續存在,我們看到它在許多指標上都非常一致。我會說這在我們的數字趨勢中是正確的,它也發生在實體零售中。所以這就是為什麼我們想要反映並明確這一點。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
And then for the first part of your question, Alex, yes, that same rate continued in July, so it didn't further deteriorate in July. And then it's obviously only a few days into August, but it stays consistent with what we've seen thus far.
然後對於你問題的第一部分,亞歷克斯,是的,同樣的速度在 7 月份繼續,所以它在 7 月份沒有進一步惡化。然後顯然距離八月只有幾天,但它與我們迄今為止所看到的保持一致。
Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate
Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate
Great. That's super helpful. Maybe just one quick follow-up on your answer. When you guys had this agile response to the change in trends, maybe what was like the top 1 or 2 things that you immediately did that you saw proved super effective?
偉大的。這非常有幫助。也許只是對您的答案的快速跟進。當你們對趨勢的變化做出這種敏捷的反應時,也許你認為最有效的第一或兩件事是什麼?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
It's a whole host of things. I mean this is the kind of execution that we do every day, Alex. And it's about the messaging to the consumer based on what they're responding to, whether that be a surge in travel spending, and we know people are on the road. We know we're great shoes to use on the road, and so we might position some of the product messaging around that, to something as simple as just watching our return on ad spend and flexing up in demand, the marketing that's a bit more performance oriented in a way that's responsive to the trends that we're seeing.
這是一大堆事情。我的意思是這是我們每天都在做的那種執行,亞歷克斯。這是關於根據消費者的反應向消費者傳達的信息,這是否是旅行支出的激增,我們知道人們正在路上。我們知道我們是在路上使用的好鞋,所以我們可能會圍繞它定位一些產品信息,就像觀察我們的廣告支出回報和增加需求一樣簡單,營銷有點多以響應我們所看到的趨勢的方式以性能為導向。
Operator
Operator
And the next question will come from Bob Drbul from Guggenheim.
下一個問題將來自古根海姆的 Bob Drbul。
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD
Yes, 2 questions for you. I think on the first one, when you look at the store base and the new stores you're opening, but in aggregate, how many of the stores -- if you could wave a magic wand today, how many stores would you like to exit if you could? And do you have any flexibility to get out of some of those stores given the environment without major cost to you?
是的,給你 2 個問題。我認為在第一個方面,當您查看商店基礎和新開的商店時,但總的來說,有多少家商店-如果您今天可以揮動魔杖,您想開設多少家商店如果可以退出?考慮到環境,您是否可以靈活地離開其中一些商店,而不會給您帶來重大成本?
And the second question, Mike, in terms of the cash burn or the end-of-year cash, your expectations, can you just talk through -- you said you don't really think you'll need any additional cash, but can you just help us understand your expectations on the next few quarters and maybe even in '23?
第二個問題,邁克,關於現金消耗或年終現金,你的期望,你能談談 - 你說你真的不認為你需要任何額外的現金,但可以您只是幫助我們了解您對未來幾個季度甚至 23 年的期望?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, thanks, Bob. So I'll start on the back end of that question, and then I'll answer the first part of your question and turn it over to Joey maybe for some more thoughts on the store side.
是的,謝謝,鮑勃。所以我將從那個問題的後端開始,然後我會回答你問題的第一部分,然後把它交給喬伊,也許可以讓喬伊對商店方面有更多的想法。
So in terms of the cash expectations, really not a whole lot more to add beyond what we said earlier in the call, we are taking these practice steps especially around tighter buying, better inventory management. So we feel really comfortable with the cash position we're sitting at. We think that our operating cash flow will continue to improve. And we're not, at this point, really getting into any kind of detail on 2023. So that's how we hold the cash question. But again, really just kind of wanted to convey to folks we feel great about having the cash on hand that we do to able to continue to grow the business.
因此,就現金預期而言,除了我們之前在電話會議中所說的之外,實際上並沒有更多的補充,我們正在採取這些實踐步驟,尤其是圍繞更嚴格的採購、更好的庫存管理。因此,我們對目前的現金狀況感到非常滿意。我們認為我們的經營現金流將繼續改善。在這一點上,我們還沒有真正深入了解 2023 年的任何細節。這就是我們處理現金問題的方式。但同樣,真的只是想向人們傳達我們對手頭有現金能夠繼續發展業務感到非常高興。
On your question on stores, I'll answer the specific question, but I'd love it if Joey could share a little bit kind of more broader details on how we're thinking about the store fleet. I would say there's no stores we would exit today, right? And even leases we have coming up, there's a reason we reaffirm the 16 to 17. In fact, there might even be a chance to pull a couple into Q4 this year. We'll see how Q4 goes.
關於你關於商店的問題,我會回答具體問題,但如果喬伊能分享一些更廣泛的細節,說明我們如何考慮商店車隊,我會很高興。我會說我們今天不會退出任何商店,對吧?即使是我們即將提出的租約,我們也有理由重申 16 至 17 年。事實上,今年甚至可能有機會將一對夫婦拉入第四季度。我們將看看第四季度的進展情況。
So for us, we're not looking at it as any sort of slowdown in what we've already opened or what we have in the media pipeline. Our real estate team has done a great job of picking great sites in our operations, and retail teams did a good job getting those stores opened.
因此,對我們而言,我們不會將其視為我們已經開放或媒體管道中的任何形式的放緩。我們的房地產團隊在我們的運營中挑選好地點方面做得很好,零售團隊在開張這些商店方面做得很好。
But Joey, why don't you maybe share a little bit more about kind of how we're still holding retail overall?
但是喬伊,你為什麼不分享更多關於我們如何仍然保持整體零售的情況?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. I think maybe just helpful to recap how we think about retail and how that creates this omnichannel impact for us. So first and foremost, when we see the NPS that we do in stores, we understand the customer experience, speaks to a higher repeat rate. And we often see -- as I noted in my prepared remarks, we often see now it's up to 15% of our repeat customers are coming back and buying digitally, and they're spending over 50% more than single-channel repeat customers. So that's a really big impact on the profitability profile of a single customer that we can acquire. And that's really important for us driving the health of the business.
是的。我認為也許有助於回顧一下我們對零售的看法以及這如何為我們創造這種全渠道影響。因此,最重要的是,當我們看到我們在商店中所做的 NPS 時,我們了解了客戶體驗,說明了更高的重複率。而且我們經常看到 - 正如我在準備好的評論中指出的那樣,我們現在經常看到高達 15% 的回頭客回來並以數字方式購買,他們的支出比單渠道回頭客多 50% 以上。因此,這對我們可以獲得的單個客戶的盈利能力產生了非常大的影響。這對我們推動業務的健康發展非常重要。
And of course, these stores operate as billboards and generate awareness within the region that we're in. So all of that is incredibly important for the business model overall. But when we do real estate, we do this very conservatively. And we only underwrite these leases to the 4-wall economics, and we build in cushion to make sure that we can hit our 4-wall EBITDA profitability target, and we're very payback and ROIC centric when we make these decisions.
當然,這些商店就像廣告牌一樣運作,並在我們所在的地區產生知名度。所以所有這些對於整個商業模式來說都非常重要。但是當我們做房地產時,我們做的非常保守。而且我們只為 4 壁經濟學承保這些租約,並且我們建立緩衝以確保我們能夠達到我們的 4 壁 EBITDA 盈利目標,當我們做出這些決定時,我們非常注重回報和以 ROIC 為中心。
So when we look at this, what we expect is a quick payback, and we expect to be good capital allocators. So even in the demand environment like we're in today, where there's drop-off in store traffic across the industry, we can still feel confident in the long-term performance of each of these stores and the fleet overall and, of course, how that haloes into the cross-channel commerce dynamic.
所以當我們看到這個時,我們期望的是快速的回報,我們期望成為優秀的資本配置者。因此,即使在像我們今天這樣的需求環境中,整個行業的門店客流量都在下降,我們仍然可以對這些門店和整個車隊的長期表現充滿信心,當然,這如何影響跨渠道商務動態。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson from Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。
Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research
Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research
I wanted to understand how you're thinking about the profitability. Obviously, the cost cuts, but are you also considering levers to pull on the top line to build scale like a quicker wholesale rollout or more new stores?
我想了解您如何看待盈利能力。顯然,成本削減,但你是否也在考慮利用槓桿來提高收入以建立規模,比如更快的批發推出或更多的新店?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, Lorraine, thanks. Yes, I think there's a couple of pieces here. I think the first thing, just keep in mind with some of the stuff we're doing with these Simplification Initiatives, we're really shifting some dollars and resources around to continue to invest in marketing spend and continue to invest in resources across the product team and the brand teams.
是的,洛林,謝謝。是的,我認為這裡有幾個部分。我認為第一件事,請記住我們通過這些簡化計劃所做的一些事情,我們確實在轉移一些資金和資源,以繼續投資於營銷支出並繼續投資於整個產品的資源團隊和品牌團隊。
So really investing in the customer, we know that investment to customer we've made historically, that's driven these durable competitive moats that we see today. So please don't take the comments as we're slowing down investing in the customer, and it's all just about kind of getting to the cost side. That's not the message certainly at all.
所以真正投資於客戶,我們知道我們在歷史上對客戶的投資,推動了我們今天看到的這些持久的競爭護城河。因此,請不要接受評論,因為我們正在放慢對客戶的投資,而這一切都只是為了達到成本方面的目的。這根本不是信息。
Joey, in terms of Lorraine's specific question around would we accelerate store openings, would we accelerate on the third-party side, maybe you can share some thoughts to that part of the question.
Joey,就 Lorraine 提出的具體問題而言,我們是否會加快開店速度,我們是否會在第三方方面加快速度,也許您可以就這部分問題分享一些想法。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Well, yes, I think the way we're thinking about this, Lorraine, is as we've mentioned before, this year is quite slow and methodical and not particularly material on the financials. And then we do expect to continue to roll it out. And the reason we do think that is we know it's going to do well for awareness. And when people -- we get maybe 1,000 eyeballs on a pair of shoes in one of our marquee partners for every one pair that we sell through that channel. And we do expect that halo to really positively impact our direct channel.
嗯,是的,我認為我們正在考慮這個問題的方式,洛林,就像我們之前提到的那樣,今年是相當緩慢和有條理的,而且在財務方面並不是特別重要。然後我們確實希望繼續推出它。我們之所以這麼認為,是因為我們知道它會很好地提高意識。當人們 - 我們通過該渠道銷售的每一雙鞋中,我們的一個大型合作夥伴的一雙鞋上可能有 1,000 個眼球。我們確實希望光環能夠真正對我們的直接渠道產生積極影響。
So we want to do that. We also want performance credibility, and we're not going to lose discipline over the approach to make sure that we maintain a really clean marketplace. But as Tim mentioned, we have great performance products that have come out, and you can see how that interacts within our business and drives a lot of new customer acquisition with over 40% of the customers who bought that shoe in the first 30 days being new to our business.
所以我們想這樣做。我們還需要性能可信度,並且我們不會在方法上失去紀律,以確保我們維持一個真正乾淨的市場。但正如蒂姆所提到的,我們已經推出了性能卓越的產品,你可以看到它如何在我們的業務中相互作用並推動大量新客戶的獲取,在前 30 天內購買該鞋的客戶中有超過 40% 是對我們的業務來說是新的。
So when we augment that and we scale that with third party in a location where it gives us credibility in terms of the performance aspects of the product, that's going to supercharge it. So I think that's the approach we want to maintain. And of course, we'll continue to look at data as things go and make sure that we maintain a really thoughtful and healthy set of relationships.
因此,當我們增強它並與第三方一起在產品性能方面為我們提供可信度的位置進行擴展時,這將增強它。所以我認為這就是我們想要保持的方法。當然,隨著事情的發展,我們將繼續查看數據,並確保我們保持一套真正深思熟慮和健康的關係。
Operator
Operator
The next question will come from Mark Altschwager from Baird.
下一個問題將來自 Baird 的 Mark Altschwager。
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
I guess, first for Mike, can you provide a bit more detail on the magnitude of the cost of goods savings you're expecting in '23 related to the simplification plan? And then just as we sort of think about that path to profitability, adjusted EBITDA loss guidance this year, about $40 million at the midpoint. You have some of these savings on tap for 2023. Obviously, sales, we're talking of this right out of the environment. But could you maybe speak to the level of sales or range of sales that would be needed to achieve breakeven adjusted EBITDA with all the changes you're talking about today?
我想,首先是邁克,您能否提供更多關於您在 23 年與簡化計劃相關的商品節省成本的幅度的詳細信息?然後,正如我們在考慮通往盈利的道路一樣,今年調整後的 EBITDA 虧損指引約為 4000 萬美元。到 2023 年,您可以節省一些資金。顯然,銷售,我們是在環境之外談論的。但是,您能否談談在您今天談論的所有變化中實現盈虧平衡調整後 EBITDA 所需的銷售水平或銷售範圍?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. Thanks for the question, Mark. So when you think about that, the cost savings piece, over the course of the last 2 years, the COVID-related headwinds on logistics costs and distribution center costs have been about 450 to 500 basis points. So a big part of what we're looking at here is we know we're not going to make all of that up in 1 year. But by accelerating some of these initiatives and taking these steps now, we should be able to put a pretty good dent into that in 2023, something by the end of 2023.
是的。謝謝你的問題,馬克。因此,當您考慮到成本節約部分時,在過去 2 年的過程中,與 COVID 相關的物流成本和配送中心成本的不利因素約為 450 到 500 個基點。所以我們在這裡看到的很大一部分是我們知道我們不會在一年內完成所有這些。但是,通過加快其中一些舉措並立即採取這些措施,我們應該能夠在 2023 年,即到 2023 年底之前,對這一目標產生相當大的影響。
So that kind of helps you about how to size it. We're not going to get into super detailed 2023 guidance like certainly today. And look, in terms of your question about is there like a magic sales number when it gets to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, I think the reality is, kind of going back to part of what we shared earlier, this idea that the destination has not changed for us. We're focused not just on getting to adjusted EBITDA breakeven, we're focused on the medium-term targets and getting to that mid-teens adjusted EBITDA as a percent of sales.
所以這可以幫助你了解如何調整它的大小。我們不會像今天一樣進入超級詳細的 2023 年指南。看,就你的問題而言,當調整後的 EBITDA 盈虧平衡時,是否有一個神奇的銷售數字,我認為現實是,有點回到我們之前分享的部分內容,目的地沒有改變的想法為我們。我們不僅關注調整後的 EBITDA 盈虧平衡點,還關注中期目標,以及調整後的 EBITDA 佔銷售額的百分比。
And there's lots of levers we can pull to get there. Obviously, continued top line growth, which is why we invest in the brand and invest in the customer even during this economic downturn, that's a big part of it. But a lot of these proactive steps we took today on the cost of goods structure and the $13 million to $15 million of SG&A savings, those things combined really help us along the way in the path, Mark.
我們可以拉動很多槓桿來實現這一目標。顯然,持續的收入增長,這就是為什麼我們即使在經濟低迷時期也投資於品牌並投資於客戶,這是其中很大一部分。但是,我們今天在商品結構成本方面採取的許多積極措施以及 1300 萬至 1500 萬美元的 SG&A 節省,這些東西加在一起確實幫助了我們一路走來,馬克。
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
Mark R. Altschwager - Senior Research Analyst
And maybe for Tim or Joey, just given the learnings in apparel and the adjustments you're making to that strategy, can you give us some broader perspective on how you're thinking about the revenue opportunity there, where do you think apparel contract as a percentage of your sales in the medium term?
也許對於蒂姆或喬伊來說,僅僅考慮到服裝方面的學習以及您對該策略所做的調整,您能否給我們一些更廣泛的視角,了解您如何看待那裡的收入機會,您認為服裝合同在哪裡中期銷售額的百分比?
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Yes. Thanks. I'll take a first crack at that one. Look, apparel at the moment is about 10% of the business. We don't see that materially changing. The innovation and product focus remains vastly on footwear. We've got some really exciting sort of stuff coming with the new material platform in the next short period of time, a new lifestyle franchise that we're really, really excited about.
是的。謝謝。我會先破解那個。看,目前服裝約佔業務的 10%。我們沒有看到這種實質性的變化。創新和產品重點仍然主要集中在鞋類上。在接下來的短時間內,我們將在新材料平台上推出一些非常令人興奮的東西,這是一個我們非常非常興奮的新生活方式系列。
But apparel has got a really important role to play. We know that consumers want from us socks, underwear, classic T-shirts, sweats, all articulations of our supernatural comfort. And part of the strategy there is to focus on that. Shifting from a lineup of Gen 1 apparel that was less than half evergreen to the vast majority of evergreen servicing these classic items, leveraging our deep, deep knowledge in these natural material platform.
但服裝扮演著非常重要的角色。我們知道消費者想要我們的襪子、內衣、經典 T 卹、運動衫,以及我們超自然舒適的所有表達方式。戰略的一部分就是關注這一點。利用我們在這些天然材料平台上的深厚知識,從不到一半常青樹的 Gen 1 服裝系列轉變為為這些經典產品提供服務的絕大多數常青樹。
So that's the plan going forward. And again, footwear is where we've started. It's central to our product and innovation efforts going forward.
所以這就是未來的計劃。再一次,鞋類是我們開始的地方。這是我們未來產品和創新努力的核心。
Operator
Operator
And the next question will be from Matthew Boss from JPMorgan.
下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst
So Mike, relative to your inventory position today and incorporating actions from the Simplification strategy, what are you targeting for inventory to exit this year relative to revenue growth? And then for Joey, larger picture, what are you seeing in the competitive landscape today? Or what do you believe is driving the change in the backdrop relative to 3 months ago in footwear?
因此,邁克,相對於您今天的庫存狀況並結合簡化戰略中的行動,您今年的庫存目標是相對於收入增長而退出的目標是什麼?然後對於喬伊來說,更大的圖景,你在今天的競爭格局中看到了什麼?或者您認為是什麼推動了鞋類行業相對於 3 個月前的背景變化?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. So on the first one, I really think of inventory as a forward-looking metric, Matt. And I kind of look at where will we be really not just at the end of this year and by the end of 2023. I think with the steps we're taking to buy tighter on the core products that we have in stock now, that we know is evergreen, that we know our customer loves, that's going to do a pretty dramatic improvement when it comes to turns. So I'm kind of looking out further to where we want to be by the end of '23. And we think we're going to see the inventory positions certainly come down by the end of 2023 and have a big improvement in turns next year.
是的。所以在第一個方面,我真的認為庫存是一個前瞻性的指標,馬特。而且我有點想看看我們真的會在哪裡,而不僅僅是在今年年底和 2023 年底。我認為隨著我們正在採取的步驟,我們正在採取更多的措施來購買我們現在庫存的核心產品,那就是我們知道這是常青樹,我們知道我們的客戶喜歡,這將在轉彎方面做出相當大的改進。所以我有點想進一步了解我們在 23 年底之前想要達到的目標。我們認為,到 2023 年底,庫存頭寸肯定會下降,明年會出現大幅改善。
So Joey, I'll turn it to you for the second piece on your thoughts on the competitive dynamic.
那麼喬伊,我將把它交給你,第二篇關於你對競爭動態的看法。
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes. I mean I think I'm sure you're all over that, but I think the inventory situation in the industry is one that's quite notable, where a lot of companies had difficulty navigating the supply environment for quite a long time during COVID. And those shipments are now just catching up, and that happens to be simultaneous with a slowdown in the overall appetite from consumers.
是的。我的意思是,我相信您已經了解了這一點,但我認為該行業的庫存情況非常值得注意,在 COVID 期間,許多公司在很長一段時間內都難以駕馭供應環境。而這些出貨量現在才剛剛趕上,而這恰好與消費者的整體胃口放緩同時發生。
And while maybe some of their spending is staying the same, the shift from goods and particularly discretionary goods over to travel and other things in the economy clearly is making a notable impact particularly on footwear. And so that's kind of the demand shift that we're seeing. And I think what we're seeing in the environment is already a much more dramatic promotional environment than I think we had anticipated for the industry-wide going on at this part of the year. We might have expected it in the holidays, having lived through what we've lived through in the past couple of years, but it's happening earlier now in a much more significant fashion than I think we would have predicted earlier.
雖然他們的一些支出可能保持不變,但經濟中從商品特別是可自由支配的商品向旅行和其他事物的轉變顯然正在對鞋類產生顯著影響。這就是我們所看到的需求轉變。而且我認為我們在環境中看到的已經是一個比我認為我們對今年這個部分的整個行業進行的預期更具戲劇性的促銷環境。我們可能已經在假期中預料到了,經歷了過去幾年我們所經歷的一切,但它現在發生的時間比我認為我們早先預測的要重要得多。
Good -- fortunate situation is that, well, with any kind of slowdown, we're, of course, going to be a little heavier on the inventory than we might otherwise plan for. It's all really good quality inventory at evergreen. And while we make sure to be competitive in the environment with some smart promotion and smart end-of-season markdowns, we're going to -- well, we don't need to do anything dramatic and can keep a really good discipline and make sure that we keep tracking against both the top line and margin expectations.
好 - 幸運的情況是,隨著任何形式的放緩,我們的庫存當然會比我們原本計劃的要重一些。常青樹的所有庫存質量都非常好。雖然我們通過一些明智的促銷和明智的季末降價確保在環境中保持競爭力,但我們將——好吧,我們不需要做任何戲劇性的事情,並且可以保持非常好的紀律和確保我們不斷跟踪收入和利潤預期。
Operator
Operator
And the next question will be from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group.
下一個問題將來自 Telsey 諮詢集團的 Dana Telsey。
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
As you think about the new product introductions that are coming up, are you making any adjustments to pricing for these new products than you would have before this downturn? And what does that imply for the margin also?
當您考慮即將推出的新產品時,您是否對這些新產品的定價進行了調整,而不是在這次低迷之前所做的調整?這對利潤也意味著什麼?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Thanks, Dana. So on price, I can give back to Tim for a little color on the actual products and the innovation we're focused on. But we talked about this earlier in the year. We really established a pricing architecture that signaled a few different things that we wanted to convey to consumers when we made our pricing adjustment in March. What we did was that we established a framework where we were material centric. So supernatural comfort deriving from materials is what the brand stands for. We really want to make sure that we orient the customer around that key value proposition.
謝謝,達娜。所以在價格方面,我可以回饋蒂姆,讓他們對實際產品和我們關注的創新有所了解。但我們在今年早些時候談到了這一點。當我們在 3 月份進行定價調整時,我們確實建立了一個定價架構,它表明了我們想要傳達給消費者的一些不同的東西。我們所做的是建立了一個以物質為中心的框架。因此,源自材料的超自然舒適感正是該品牌所代表的。我們真的想確保我們圍繞這個關鍵價值主張來定位客戶。
So where we might introduce something in Tree, that might be a lower price point than Wool, which might be a lower price point than our newest innovation in plant leather. So that architecture speaks to the quality and the delivery and expectations we would expect from the consumer.
因此,我們可能會在 Tree 中引入一些東西,它的價格可能比 Wool 低,這可能比我們最新的植物皮革創新的價格低。因此,該架構說明了我們對消費者期望的質量、交付和期望。
And then similarly, on lifestyle versus performance, when you get into the higher technical offering that we have, something like a Flyer, we would expect that consumers would be able to understand that the technology that we're investing in something like the midsole with SwiftFoam is of the highest quality in the industry and, hence, would be willing to pay more.
然後類似地,在生活方式與性能方面,當您進入我們擁有的更高技術產品時,例如 Flyer,我們希望消費者能夠理解我們投資於中底之類的技術SwiftFoam 是業內質量最高的,因此願意支付更多費用。
And fortunately, we priced that at the highest price point, I think, we've ever sold any mainline product that we have at $160 in the U.S. and sold very well and also sold very well while delivering all of that plus 40% of the mix being from new customers. So we're pretty enthusiastic about that and are happy with the architecture that we've set up. And I think the rest of the year is going to fit right into that model.
幸運的是,我們以最高價格定價,我認為,我們曾經在美國以 160 美元的價格出售過任何主線產品,並且賣得很好,而且在交付所有這些外加 40% 的產品時也賣得很好混合來自新客戶。所以我們對此非常熱情,並對我們建立的架構感到滿意。而且我認為今年剩下的時間將適合該模型。
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Timothy O. Brown - Co-Founder, Co-CEO & Director
Yes. Joey covered that really well. I just -- I think the key point to underline is that natural material innovation is at the core of our growth engine. We've invested in that from the beginning. We continue to invest in it, recently opened a Portland design and innovation hub. And that ability to continue to bring new and sustainable materials to market that meet this consumer demand, we see it in our research every day. This increasing consumer demand for natural and sustainable materials allows us to take price and to enhance the value for our consumers. And we'll keep doing that across performance and lifestyle. And like I sort of said, again, in the short term, we have a big new material platform and a new lifestyle franchise coming that we're excited about, which will be a good example of that.
是的。喬伊很好地涵蓋了這一點。我只是 - 我認為要強調的關鍵點是天然材料創新是我們增長引擎的核心。我們從一開始就對此進行了投資。我們繼續投資,最近開設了波特蘭設計和創新中心。繼續將新的可持續材料推向市場以滿足消費者需求的能力,我們每天都在研究中看到這一點。消費者對天然和可持續材料的需求不斷增長,這使我們能夠定價並提高消費者的價值。我們將在性能和生活方式方面繼續這樣做。就像我說的那樣,在短期內,我們有一個新的大型材料平台和一個我們很興奮的新生活方式特許經營權,這將是一個很好的例子。
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
And then just lastly on the promo...
然後最後在促銷...
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Fire away, Dana. Was there a follow-up question there?
開火吧,達娜。那裡有後續問題嗎?
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer
Yes. Yes. Just lastly, on promotion. What type of promotions are you thinking about as we head into the third and the fourth quarter compared to -- and particularly, you haven't been promotional, how are you thinking about promotions? What should we be watching?
是的。是的。最後,關於促銷。與我們進入第三和第四季度相比,您在考慮什麼類型的促銷活動 - 特別是,您還沒有進行促銷活動,您如何看待促銷活動?我們應該看什麼?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Sure. I think -- so we have done some, and I don't think it's going to be inconsistent with what you've already seen from us. You can look on our digital platform today, and you can see that we have some end-of-season markdowns. And these are really -- these are styles that were a little bit slower moving, highly seasonal in terms of the color way or the style and may have broken sizes.
當然。我認為 - 所以我們已經做了一些,我認為這不會與你已經從我們那裡看到的內容不一致。您今天可以在我們的數字平台上查看,您可以看到我們有一些季末降價促銷。這些是真的 - 這些款式的移動速度有點慢,在顏色方式或款式方面季節性很強,並且可能有破損的尺寸。
So that we're starting to move to kind of an end-of-season markdown cadence. And that's just really going to be helpful in terms of managing the expanding breadth of our assortment. So that's really aligned with what we've been expecting to do.
所以我們開始轉向一種季末降價節奏。這對於管理我們不斷擴大的產品種類非常有幫助。所以這真的與我們一直期望做的一致。
And then I think in terms of the holiday cadence that we're doing, that's pretty typical. Pretty typical, we did a nice Black Friday event last year, which worked quite well, and we're going to do something similar again here. And these things are all aligned around the idea that we're a premium brand and we don't want to habituate customers to think that they can get products on discount.
然後我認為就我們正在做的假期節奏而言,這是非常典型的。非常典型,我們去年舉辦了一場不錯的黑色星期五活動,效果很好,我們將在這裡再次做類似的事情。這些事情都圍繞著我們是一個優質品牌的想法,我們不想讓客戶習慣性地認為他們可以以折扣價獲得產品。
If they want the best, if they want the newest, if they want the most core, that's going to be full price from us. And so maintaining discipline around that is really critical to us. And it's helpful to have an inventory base that really is so heavily focused on core and a little bit more evergreen styles. That allows us to do what we're just describing remain competitive in the marketplace and still keep full price yield at 85%, 90% for the year even in such a promotional environment. So we're quite pleased with the execution there.
如果他們想要最好的,如果他們想要最新的,如果他們想要最核心的,那將是我們的全價。因此,圍繞這一點保持紀律對我們來說非常重要。擁有一個真正專注於核心和更多常青風格的庫存基礎會很有幫助。這使我們能夠做我們剛剛描述的事情,在市場上保持競爭力,並且即使在這樣的促銷環境中,全年的全價收益率仍保持在 85% 到 90%。所以我們對那裡的執行非常滿意。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes. One last thing I'd add to that too, Dana, is we know in our experience, well limited so far with like promotions. What we see it does is it increases awareness for the brand and we're still, remember, in the mid-teens, aided brand awareness today. And it definitely drives demand to help us bring in some new customers. So that's part of the reason why we want to meet the customer where they are on some of the stuff right now.
是的。我還要補充的最後一件事,Dana,我們的經驗是我們知道,到目前為止,類似的促銷活動非常有限。我們看到它的作用是提高了品牌知名度,我們仍然記得,在十幾歲的時候,今天幫助品牌知名度。它肯定會推動需求,幫助我們吸引一些新客戶。所以這就是為什麼我們想在客戶現在就某些東西的情況下與他們會面的部分原因。
Operator
Operator
And the next question will be from Ed Yruma from Piper Sandler.
下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Ed Yruma。
Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Two from me. I guess first, you guys told a really good story about performance, so congrats on the early success there. I wanted to click that a little bit on the lifestyle business. What kind of performance trends are you seeing within your legacy platforms, particularly Wool Runner? And I know that's not seasonally the hottest during the summertime?
兩個我。我想首先,你們講了一個關於性能的非常好的故事,所以祝賀那裡的早期成功。我想在生活方式業務上點擊一下。您在舊平台(尤其是 Wool Runner)中看到了什麼樣的性能趨勢?而且我知道這不是夏季最熱的季節嗎?
And then as a follow-up, I want to confirm that the write-down in apparel was $12 million to $14 million. And I just want to kind of understand a little why should we treat that as a onetime given that companies in your space kind of create new product discontinue all the time. Is that really appropriate as a onetime charge? And kind of how would you like us to treat that?
然後作為後續行動,我想確認服裝的減記為 1200 萬至 1400 萬美元。而且我只是想稍微了解一下,鑑於您所在領域的公司一直在生產新產品,為什麼我們應該將其視為一次性。作為一次性收費真的合適嗎?你希望我們如何對待它?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, Ed, happy to follow up in more detail on the second question. We have a callback with you later. But the reason we think of that as a onetime is it's a pretty big move in this generational change on the apparel side of things. That's the biggest driver in sync then with some of these changes we're making on the logistics side.
是的,Ed,很高興能更詳細地跟進第二個問題。我們稍後會與您聯繫。但我們認為這是一次性的原因是,在服裝方面的這一代際變化中,這是一個相當大的舉措。這是與我們在物流方面做出的一些改變同步的最大驅動力。
So truly is onetime in nature, and that's why we've chosen to liquidate as opposed to trying to move through our own direct channels. We do a pretty good job with what Joey was just saying with something like end of life and markdowns. So it's a bit of a different beast, but happy to talk you through that a little bit more on the follow-up call.
所以真的是一次性的,這就是為什麼我們選擇清算而不是試圖通過我們自己的直接渠道移動。我們在 Joey 剛剛所說的報廢和降價等方面做得很好。所以這是一種不同的野獸,但很高興在後續電話中與您討論更多。
In terms of your question on the performance versus lifestyle trends, we continue to be happy with the overall growth across each side of the footwear category. There are certainly times during the year where the focus is a little heavier on performance, where it's a little heavier on lifestyle. There's times it is a little heavier on Tree right now, but then we're getting into Wool season. So we continue to feel pleased with the overall growth we see. I think, credits to Tim and the product team, the expansion that we've had across the whole product portfolio, especially on the footwear side, gives us the ability to have things that are top of mind for customers at every given time of year. And that's how we see it sort of flow all the way through the year on our end.
關於您關於性能與生活方式趨勢的問題,我們繼續對鞋類類別各方面的整體增長感到滿意。一年中肯定有一些時候,重點是表現得更重一些,生活方式更重一些。有時樹現在有點重,但隨後我們進入了羊毛季節。因此,我們繼續對我們看到的整體增長感到滿意。我認為,感謝蒂姆和產品團隊,我們在整個產品組合中的擴展,特別是在鞋類方面,使我們能夠在一年中的每個特定時間擁有客戶最關心的東西.這就是我們如何看待它在我們年底的一年中一直流動的方式。
Operator
Operator
And the next question is from Jim Duffy from Stifel.
下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Jim Duffy。
James Vincent Duffy - MD
James Vincent Duffy - MD
So my questions are on the digital business, more challenging environment here, not unique to Allbirds. Trying to understand how this plays forward. Can you maybe speak to differences in what you're seeing with repeat customer engagement and your yield on new customer acquisition efforts and then, from a tactical standpoint, how that's steering your allocation of performance marketing spend?
所以我的問題是關於數字業務,這裡更具挑戰性的環境,不是 Allbirds 獨有的。試圖了解這是如何向前發展的。您能否談談您在重複客戶參與方面所看到的差異以及您在新客戶獲取工作中的收益,然後,從戰術的角度來看,這將如何指導您分配績效營銷支出?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Jim, good question. So I wouldn't say that at this point we're seeing any deviation really in trends between new customer acquisition and repeat. And in fact, we're seeing really positive trends in terms of LTV growth and repeat engagement. We track that on a number of different periodic basis. And we're seeing absolutely no falloff in the number of repeat purchases that people are making. And when you couple that with the AOV growth that we're seeing, generally, that's quite a positive sign for us particularly in an environment like this.
吉姆,好問題。所以我不會說,在這一點上,我們看到新客戶獲取和重複之間的趨勢確實存在任何偏差。事實上,我們在 LTV 增長和重複參與方面看到了非常積極的趨勢。我們在許多不同的定期基礎上對其進行跟踪。我們看到人們重複購買的次數絕對沒有下降。當您將其與我們看到的 AOV 增長結合起來時,通常這對我們來說是一個非常積極的信號,尤其是在這樣的環境中。
And Mike alluded to this. Even despite the fact of what we're seeing on the demand side, this isn't going to be a knee-jerk reaction to a downturn. We're going to continue to invest not just in marketing as a line item but really specifically around brand and really emphasize to the -- we know we're aligned with what the customer wants, and we're going to double down.
邁克也提到了這一點。儘管我們在需求方面看到了這一事實,但這不會是對經濟低迷的下意識反應。我們將繼續投資,不僅將營銷作為一個項目,而且特別是圍繞品牌進行投資,並真正強調 - 我們知道我們與客戶的需求保持一致,我們將加倍努力。
And our biggest opportunity is in the fact that we still have low to mid-teens awareness -- aided awareness, people who have heard the name Allbirds before. We can increase that number and connect with people around the values orientation that we know they're aligned with, with our brand. That's where we're going to win. And so that's -- it's something we're not really letting off. And we haven't seen any data to suggest that, that would be a prudent move at this point.
而我們最大的機會在於,我們仍然有低到中青少年的意識——輔助意識,那些以前聽過 Allbirds 這個名字的人。我們可以增加這個數字,並圍繞我們知道他們與我們的品牌一致的價值取向與人們建立聯繫。那就是我們要取勝的地方。所以這就是 - 這是我們並沒有真正放過的東西。而且我們還沒有看到任何數據表明,在這一點上這將是一個謹慎的舉動。
James Vincent Duffy - MD
James Vincent Duffy - MD
Okay. Joey, you guys aren't the only ones with a strategy like that. I'm trying to understand in that context what's the margin impact for the business and what's the long-run prospect for the margin of that business. Are we going to look back at 2018 to 2021 as the halcyon days for digital engagement? Or is there a reason to believe the economics on that business can improve?
好的。喬伊,你們不是唯一有這種策略的人。在這種情況下,我試圖了解對業務的利潤率影響是什麼,以及該業務利潤率的長期前景是什麼。我們是否將回顧 2018 年至 2021 年作為數字參與的寧靜日子?還是有理由相信該業務的經濟狀況會有所改善?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Well, it doesn't exist in a vacuum, Jim. I would really think about the model that we're building as a little bit more than just a channel-by-channel segmentation. When we invest in our retail footprint, we see the digital business rise, and we know we can attribute that back to awareness being lifted in that geography. When we have fantastic organic brand marketing activations, we see that come through an aided brand awareness, and then we can double-click on that on more performance-oriented ads.
好吧,它不存在於真空中,吉姆。我真的會考慮我們正在構建的模型,而不僅僅是逐個渠道的細分。當我們投資於我們的零售足跡時,我們看到了數字業務的興起,我們知道我們可以將其歸因於該地區意識的提升。當我們有出色的有機品牌營銷激活時,我們會看到這是通過輔助品牌知名度來實現的,然後我們可以在更多以績效為導向的廣告上雙擊它。
And I would say, despite the fact that CPMs have been rising across the industry, I think that's a well-known trend that everyone has faced over the last 5 years, we've done such a good job of early diversification of the media spend that we have, that we come back to a place where our overall business can still have leverage on the marketing line item while we're investing and doubling down in brand. And that to us is the right long-term formula so that we can be adaptive and dynamic to the current situation while not sacrificing any of the long-term possibility that this brand has.
我想說,儘管整個行業的每千次展示費用一直在上升,但我認為這是過去 5 年每個人都面臨的眾所周知的趨勢,我們在媒體支出的早期多元化方面做得很好我們擁有的,我們回到了一個地方,我們的整體業務仍然可以在我們投資並加倍品牌的同時對營銷項目產生影響。這對我們來說是正確的長期公式,這樣我們就可以適應當前的情況並充滿活力,同時又不犧牲這個品牌所擁有的任何長期可能性。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Dylan Carden from William Blair.
下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的迪倫卡登。
Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst
Dylan Douglas Carden - Analyst
I know you guys think about the channels holistically, but in kind of understanding trends through the quarter, any additional color you might provide on was the slowdown more concentrated in U.S. online, was it pretty even between the 2 channels and kind of what you're expecting go forward between online and retail?
我知道你們從整體上考慮渠道,但在了解整個季度的趨勢時,您可能提供的任何其他顏色都是放緩更集中在美國在線,這兩個渠道之間的情況是否相當不錯?重新期待在線和零售之間的發展?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Dylan, we say it's been pretty consistent across the channels. That's why we talk about it as a broad-based slowdown. We don't think it's just us certainly, and it seems to be both brick-and-mortar and digital.
迪倫,我們說它在各個渠道中都非常一致。這就是為什麼我們將其稱為廣泛的放緩。我們認為肯定不僅僅是我們,而且它似乎既是實體的又是數字的。
Operator
Operator
And the next question is from Ashley Helgans from Jefferies.
下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ashley Helgans。
Ashley Elizabeth Helgans - Equity Analyst
Ashley Elizabeth Helgans - Equity Analyst
Just a quick one, Mike, for you. You mentioned the gross margin is expected to be down in Q3 and a nice rebound in the fourth quarter. What's driving that rebound?
邁克,給你一個快速的。您提到毛利率預計將在第三季度下降,並在第四季度出現良好反彈。是什麼推動了這種反彈?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, there's a couple of components there. Ashley, thanks for the question. We're glad to make sure we have time for you on the call. So the first thing is it is our highest seasonal quarter of the year. Sales was -- that gives us a little bit of leverage on a few parts of gross margin that are fixed.
是的,那裡有幾個組件。阿什利,謝謝你的問題。我們很高興確保我們有時間接聽您的電話。所以第一件事是這是我們一年中季節性最高的季度。銷售是——這讓我們對固定毛利率的幾個部分有了一點影響。
The second thing is we're starting to lap some of the absolute highest levels of inbound shipping. We're also lapping pretty high fuel surcharges and outbound surcharges last year. So we'll still have some of that stuff built in, in Q4 this year. We're just starting to lap some of the real ugliness of some of the COVID headwinds, and that's going to be the big driver there.
第二件事是我們開始嘗試一些絕對最高水平的入境運輸。去年,我們還徵收了相當高的燃油附加費和出境附加費。所以我們仍然會在今年第四季度內置一些東西。我們才剛剛開始了解一些 COVID 逆風的真正醜陋之處,這將成為那裡的主要驅動力。
Operator
Operator
The next question is from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc 的 Noah Zatzkin。
Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst
Noah Seth Zatzkin - Research Analyst
Just on the cadence of gross margin, I know you mentioned that you're through the bulk of inventory write-downs. But just in terms of the mix of inventory on the balance sheet, it's still up quite a bit ending in the second quarter. Could you just give a little more color on kind of the mix of the inventory balance and what gives you confidence that you won't be taking further write-downs on what you've guided to in the back half of the year?
就毛利率的節奏而言,我知道你提到你正在經歷大量的庫存減記。但僅就資產負債表上的庫存組合而言,到第二季度結束時仍有相當大的上升空間。您能否就庫存餘額的混合情況多加說明一下,是什麼讓您有信心不會進一步減記您在下半年的指導方針?
And then just very quickly on the international business. Guidance implies a slight uptick there versus the second quarter so just any color there would be helpful.
然後很快就開始了國際業務。指導意味著與第二季度相比略有上升,因此任何顏色都會有幫助。
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, on the international piece, I'll answer that first because that's quick. We are saying on the local currency side, things really are playing out very much in line with what we expected at the end of last quarter. It's really just kind of the move in FX. And look, it's a pretty volatile environment out there in some of the international geos, but our teams are doing a great job of executing the product, and the brand are resonating well with those customers.
是的,在國際部分,我會先回答這個問題,因為這很快。我們在當地貨幣方面說,事情的發展確實非常符合我們在上個季度末的預期。這實際上只是 FX 中的一種舉措。看,在一些國際地區,這是一個非常不穩定的環境,但我們的團隊在執行產品方面做得很好,品牌在這些客戶中產生了很好的共鳴。
So that you are kind of reading the guidance right there, Noah, on that part of it, the first part of the question, Noah, was about the inventory piece of it. So after the part that's anticipated to be liquidated, so we have $122 million today, $10 million more coming on the liquidation side, so that $112 million that we have left after that. Again, we think of that as healthy evergreen product, largely footwear. This is stuff that we know our customers are going to continue to buy. These are the things that are sort of the timeless classic Allbirds products that people know and love. So that's why we're confident we'll be able to continue to move through that inventory.
因此,Noah,您可以在那裡閱讀指導,關於它的那一部分,問題的第一部分,Noah,是關於它的庫存部分。因此,在預計將被清算的部分之後,我們今天有 1.22 億美元,清算方面還有 1000 萬美元,所以在那之後我們還剩下 1.12 億美元。同樣,我們認為這是健康的常青產品,主要是鞋類。這是我們知道我們的客戶將繼續購買的東西。這些東西是人們知道和喜愛的永恆經典的 Allbirds 產品。所以這就是為什麼我們有信心能夠繼續處理這些庫存。
It's also nice for us because these are products we can be tighter buying on going forward, especially over the next several quarters, because we know we have the inventory in place to meet demand. And then finally, where we do some of this selective promotion that Joey is talking about around a Cyber Monday or that sort of thing, we know those types of things do help us move through inventory as well.
這對我們來說也很好,因為這些產品我們可以在未來更嚴格地購買,特別是在接下來的幾個季度,因為我們知道我們有足夠的庫存來滿足需求。最後,我們在網絡星期一或類似的事情上進行喬伊所說的一些選擇性促銷活動,我們知道這些類型的事情也有助於我們通過庫存。
So that's why we're confident that the stuff that's going on primarily around apparel is sort of unique onetime thing. We're going to move through that. We thought it was important to take the quick and decisive action now that we made some adjustments to the apparel side. And we're -- being able to do this now, we'll be able to accelerate some of those logistics cost savings as well. And we're happy to talk to that a little bit more on a follow-up call as well.
所以這就是為什麼我們相信主要圍繞服裝發生的事情是一種獨特的一次性事物。我們將解決這個問題。既然我們對服裝方面進行了一些調整,我們認為採取快速果斷的行動很重要。而且我們現在能夠做到這一點,我們也將能夠加速其中一些物流成本的節省。我們也很高興在後續電話會議上就此進行更多討論。
Operator
Operator
And the next question is from John Kernan from Cowen.
下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 John Kernan。
Krista Kerr Zuber - VP
Krista Kerr Zuber - VP
This is Krista Zuber on for John. Most of our questions have been answered. Just one here. In relation to the Simplification Initiatives, how should we think about your capital allocation and CapEx run rate over the next few years?
這是約翰的克里斯塔祖伯。我們的大部分問題都已得到解答。這裡只有一個。關於簡化計劃,我們應該如何看待您未來幾年的資本分配和資本支出運行率?
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Michael J. Bufano - CFO
Yes, look, again, we really believe the cash position we have now is in a great spot. We're going to see improvements in our operating cash flow because a lot of the stuff we talked about on the call today. We have more-than-enough cash to be able to like fund our growth and have no cash needs. In terms of the exact pace of CapEx and how that's spread across different projects, we'll get into that detail a little bit more when we start to give 2023 guidance, but no change on anything on the CapEx side for us tied to what we talked about today.
是的,再看一遍,我們真的相信我們現在擁有的現金狀況非常好。我們將看到我們的經營現金流有所改善,因為我們今天在電話會議上談到了很多東西。我們有足夠的現金來支持我們的增長,並且沒有現金需求。就資本支出的確切步伐以及它在不同項目中的分佈情況而言,當我們開始提供 2023 年指導時,我們將更深入地了解該細節,但對我們而言,資本支出方面的任何變化都與我們的今天談到了。
All right. Thank you. And with that, I think, Joey, you're just going to close this out with a closing thoughts?
好的。謝謝你。有了這個,我想,喬伊,你會用一個結束的想法來結束這個嗎?
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Joseph Z. Zwillinger - Co-Founder, Co-CEO, President, Treasurer, Secretary & Director
Yes, thanks. Thanks for everyone's time today and all the great questions. I think we've tried to do a good job here. Hopefully, we conveyed it, particularly that the love that we're seeing from our customers and that they're demonstrating through repeat purchase, I think it's a testament to the strong health of the brand. And there's probably no more important indicator than that. And it's underpinned by new footwear products like the Flyer that we talked about and the energy moments within our existing franchises.
對了謝謝。感謝大家今天的時間和所有的好問題。我認為我們已經努力在這裡做得很好。希望我們傳達了這一點,特別是我們從客戶那裡看到的愛以及他們通過重複購買所表現出來的愛,我認為這證明了該品牌的強大健康。可能沒有比這更重要的指標了。它的基礎是我們談到的 Flyer 等新鞋類產品以及我們現有特許經營權中的活力時刻。
So we're confident that these proactive steps that we've taken and that we've detailed today will ensure that we can still deliver on the medium-term commitments to the financial and environmental stakeholders. And as Mike said a couple of times, the destination is still the same. The path that we might use to get there may adjust a little bit on the way. So thanks again. We appreciate all your support. We look forward to talking next quarter.
因此,我們相信,我們已經採取並今天詳細說明的這些積極措施將確保我們仍然能夠兌現對財務和環境利益相關者的中期承諾。正如邁克多次所說,目的地仍然是一樣的。我們可能用來到達那裡的路徑可能會在途中稍微調整。所以再次感謝。我們感謝您的所有支持。我們期待下個季度的談話。
Operator
Operator
And thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
謝謝你。會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。