必和必拓 (BHP) 2026 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to today's presentation of BHP's results for the 2026 financial year. My name is Brandon Craig, and I'm joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Vandita Pant.

歡迎收看今天的簡報，內容為必和必拓（BHP）2026 財政年度的業績。我是 Brandon Craig，並由我們的財務長 Vandita Pant 與我一同出席。

As Chief Executive Officer, it is a pleasure for me to host this call with all of you this morning. But let me begin by saying that BHP is in great shape. Mike has left us a strong platform with a Tier 1 portfolio, an operating system that continues to improve, and a balance sheet that allows us to invest through the cycle. I intend to build on this strong foundation by adding even greater pace, improving our operational practices, and focusing on our customers and markets.

身為執行長，我很高興在今天早上與各位一同主持這場電話會議。但我先說，必和必拓目前狀況非常良好。Mike 為我們留下了堅實的平台：一個第一級（Tier 1）資產組合、持續改善的營運系統，以及讓我們能夠穿越景氣循環投資的資產負債表。我打算在這個強大基礎上再接再厲，加快步伐、改善營運作法，並聚焦於客戶與市場。

Today, we have great momentum, which you will see in our operational and financial results. The opportunity now is to accelerate performance to lift safety, productivity, and growth to the next level while maintaining the discipline that has served shareholders well over many years.

今天，我們動能強勁，您將在我們的營運與財務成果中看到。當前的機會在於加速表現，把安全、生產力與成長提升到下一個層級，同時維持多年來為股東帶來良好回報的紀律。

That is the agenda I am focused on as Chief Executive Officer: accelerating performance, delivering programmatic growth, and strengthening our foundations for the future. But none of that matters if our people don't go home safely. So let me start with that.

這就是我身為執行長所聚焦的議程：加速表現、推動計畫式成長，並為未來強化我們的基礎。但如果我們的人員無法平安回家，這一切都沒有意義。因此我先從這點談起。

Only a few weeks ago, a colleague of ours working for a contracting partner never made it home. His loss is deeply felt across BHP, the mining community in the Bowen Basin, and in particular at Peak Downs Mine. Our thoughts are with his loved ones.

就在幾週前，我們一位在承包合作夥伴任職的同仁未能回家。他的離世讓必和必拓全體、Bowen Basin 的礦業社群，尤其是 Peak Downs 礦場深感哀痛。我們的思念與關懷與他的摯愛親友同在。

As a leader, this is deeply personal. And speaking for BHP, we are committed to learning from this and improving safety further. Our teams are working through the investigation and leaders across our global operations are re-verifying our critical controls for higher risk activities.

身為領導者，這對我而言非常切身。代表必和必拓，我們承諾從中汲取教訓並進一步提升安全。我們的團隊正進行調查，而我們全球營運據點的領導者也正在重新驗證高風險作業的關鍵控制措施。

We have made significant progress over recent years, strengthening our safety culture and our systems to meet our aspiration to eliminate fatalities and high potential injuries from BHP.

近年來我們已取得顯著進展，強化安全文化與系統，以實現我們的願景：在必和必拓消除致命事故與高潛勢傷害。

But progress is not the measure. The only acceptable number is zero, and we are not there yet. We will continue to embed the BHP operating system which underpins safe operations, we will invest more and move faster on technology, and we will continue to enhance safety standards and work together to implement them.

但進展不是衡量標準。唯一可接受的數字是零，而我們尚未達成。我們將持續深化支撐安全營運的必和必拓營運系統，增加投資並加速導入科技，並持續提升安全標準，與各方共同合作落實。

Turning now to our results. BHP's 2026 financial year performance consolidates our position as the world's leading mining company. We are the world's largest copper producer and for the second consecutive year, we produced around 2 million tons of copper, which contributed more than half of our annual EBITDA for the first time.

接著談我們的業績。必和必拓 2026 財政年度的表現鞏固了我們作為全球領先礦業公司的地位。我們是全球最大的銅生產商，且連續第二年產銅約 200 萬噸；這也使銅業務首次貢獻了我們年度 EBITDA 的一半以上。

Our commitment to operational excellence also delivered record production at Western Australia Iron Ore. This strong operating performance, along with proceeds from the Antimina silver streaming transaction has enabled the Board to determine a dividend for the June half of USD0.99 per share. This takes our full-year dividend to $8.7 billion.

我們對卓越營運的承諾，也帶動西澳鐵礦石（Western Australia Iron Ore）創下產量新高。這項強勁的營運表現，加上 Antimina 白銀串流交易的收益，使董事會得以決定 6 月半年度每股 0.99 美元的股利。這使我們全年股利總額達到 87 億美元。

The world has always relied on mining and today is no different. Yet despite this, mining now represents a much smaller share of global equity markets than it did just 15 years ago. A lot of capital is flowing into artificial intelligence, data centers, and the energy transition. And countries and companies are increasingly focused on energy and food security, supply chain resilience, and industrial capacity.

世界一直仰賴採礦業，今天也不例外。然而，儘管如此，採礦業在全球股票市場中的占比，已遠低於 15 年前。大量資本正流向人工智慧、資料中心與能源轉型。各國與企業也日益聚焦於能源與糧食安全、供應鏈韌性，以及工業產能。

This means demand today for commodities such as copper is much more broad based than during China's boom in the late 2000s. So if global progress develops along these pathways, as we expect, mining will be required more than ever. And as the world's biggest miner, this provides significant opportunities for BHP. It is also why we have been so deliberate in our portfolio choices over decades. It is central to value creation.

這意味著，當前對銅等大宗商品的需求基礎，比 2000 年代末中國景氣高峰時期更為廣泛。因此，若全球進展如我們預期沿著這些路徑發展，採礦業將比以往任何時候都更為必要。而作為全球最大的礦商，這為必和必拓帶來重大機會。這也是為何數十年來我們在資產組合選擇上一直非常審慎且有意識。這是價值創造的核心。

BHP commodities must benefit from global mega trends and have sufficiently diverse demand drivers for resilience through the cycle. They must have large global seaborne markets, value must be captured upstream in line with our capabilities, and they must have steep cost curves so we can apply our operational expertise to deliver leading margins.

必和必拓的商品必須能受惠於全球巨型趨勢，並具備足夠多元的需求驅動因素，以在景氣循環中保持韌性。它們必須擁有龐大的全球海運市場；價值必須能依據我們的能力在上游環節被掌握；同時必須具備陡峭的成本曲線，使我們能運用營運專長，交付領先的利潤率。

Within those commodities, we seek the best possible assets; very large, long life, low cost and expandable. Assets that we can operate for decades and that generate robust margins and returns.

在這些商品之中，我們尋求最優質的資產：規模極大、壽命長、成本低且可擴張。也就是我們能營運數十年，並能產生穩健利潤率與報酬的資產。

The takeaway, BHP has Tier 1 assets in commodities the world needs. This is a truly differentiated portfolio and provides a meaningful and durable competitive advantage.

重點是：必和必拓在世界所需的商品上擁有第一級（Tier 1）資產。這是一個真正具差異化的資產組合，並提供重要且持久的競爭優勢。

Now, as good as BHP's position is today, we have always challenged ourselves to do better. That means focusing on three priorities: accelerating performance; leveraging the BHP operating system and technology to unlock the next horizon of safety, productivity, and capability; delivering disciplined programmatic growth and developing the next generation of growth options in future facing commodities. And strengthening our foundations across safety, social value and talent, and deepening partnerships to further increase our resilience. So greater ambition, more velocity, but the same discipline.

現在，即使必和必拓今日的地位已相當優越，我們一向要求自己做得更好。這意味著聚焦三大優先事項：加速表現；運用必和必拓營運系統與科技，解鎖下一階段的安全、生產力與能力；以嚴謹紀律推動計畫式成長，並在面向未來的商品上培育下一代成長選項。同時在安全、社會價值與人才等面向強化基礎，並深化合作夥伴關係，以進一步提升韌性。也就是更高的企圖心、更快的速度，但同樣的紀律。

Let me explain this briefly. It has been seven years since we implemented the BHP operating system. BOS creates a safer and more productive workplace and enables continuously improving performance. It's about culture, systems, and behaviors as much as underlying operational disciplines and practices. The more we embed BOS, the better we perform. Vandita will talk to some examples of where we've seen improvements shortly.

我簡要說明一下。自我們導入必和必拓營運系統以來，已經七年。BOS 能打造更安全、更高生產力的工作場所，並促成持續改善的績效。它關乎文化、系統與行為，同樣也關乎底層的營運紀律與作業實務。我們越能把 BOS 深植於組織，表現就越好。Vandita 稍後將分享一些我們看到改善的例子。

Few companies have been able to stick consistently to a system of this nature, which matters because these systems won't just generate results overnight. You need to keep at it for years and decades. We assess BOS maturity through an operational excellence index, or OEI, and since 2020, we have increased our score from 36 to 52.

很少有公司能長期且一致地堅持這類系統；而這很重要，因為這些系統不會在一夕之間產生成果。你需要持續投入多年甚至數十年。我們透過營運卓越指數（Operational Excellence Index，OEI）評估 BOS 的成熟度；自 2020 年以來，我們的分數已從 36 提升至 52。

Over this period, we have actioned around 7,000 initiatives right across the business. And in their first year of implementation, these delivered cost savings of more than $5 billion, but there is still so much more we can do.

在此期間，我們在全公司推動並落實約 7,000 項措施。而在導入的第一年，這些措施帶來超過 50 億美元的成本節省，但我們仍有更多可以做的空間。

To capture this value, I have tasked our teams to deliver significant sustained improvement toward a company-wide mark of 65. That is beyond what is considered to be world leading based on external benchmarks.

為了掌握這些價值，我已指派團隊朝向全公司 65 分的目標，交付顯著且可持續的改善。依外部標竿衡量，這已超越被視為世界領先的水準。

Our aspiration is to pursue the limits of performance and push out the productivity frontier. And while BOS creates the foundation for performance improvement, technology accelerates it. Simply, BOS and technology are mutually reinforcing.

我們的願景是追求績效的極限，並推進生產力前沿。而 BOS 為績效提升奠定基礎，科技則加速這一切。簡言之，BOS 與科技相互強化。

Technology is already creating value across our business. By the end of 2026, technology initiatives were delivering incremental EBITDA at an annual run rate of almost $500 million. We aim to increase that to be on 650 million by the end of 2027. But many of our examples to date are single point applications, just the first wave of value creation.

科技已在我們的業務中創造價值。截至 2026 年底，科技計畫以年化運行率（annual run rate）計算，已帶來近 5 億美元的增量 EBITDA。我們的目標是在 2027 年底將其提升至 6.5 億美元。但迄今許多案例仍屬單點應用，只是價值創造的第一波。

Applying technology to integrate the entire supply chain from pit to port means we can optimize the whole system more dynamically. That will liberate more productive hours, which means more production leading then to lower cost. While I am passionate about the potential to accelerate performance improvement, I'm also focused on value accretive volume growth.

運用科技整合從礦坑到港口的整條供應鏈，意味著我們能更動態地最佳化整個系統。這將釋放更多有效工時，進而帶來更高產量，並導向更低成本。在我對加速績效改善潛力充滿熱情的同時，我也同樣聚焦於能增厚價值的增量成長。

Our world-class portfolio of high-quality growth projects is estimated to deliver 3% to 4% per year of growth over 2027 to 2035, including around 5% per year in our copper business. I'm focused on ensuring we deliver this on time and on budget.

我們世界級的高品質成長專案組合，預估在 2027 至 2035 年間每年可帶來 3% 至 4% 的成長，其中銅業務約每年 5%。我將專注確保我們按期並在預算內交付。

But to continue this rate of growth beyond 2035, we need to build the next generation of high-quality options. This means more partnerships and adjacencies like we have with Sierra Gorda in Chile and Rio Tinto in the Pilbara, more creativity in the way we think about growth, like our investment in Faraday Copper, and more ambitious exploration and early stage investments to secure the next big deposits like Vicuña.

但若要在 2035 年之後延續這樣的成長速度，我們需要打造下一代高品質的成長選項。這意味著要有更多像我們在智利與 Sierra Gorda、以及在皮爾巴拉與 Rio Tinto 那樣的合作夥伴關係與相鄰布局；在思考成長方式上更具創意，例如我們對 Faraday Copper 的投資；並進行更具企圖心的勘探與早期階段投資，以確保下一個像 Vicuña 這樣的大型礦床。

Now, while investors understand the quality of BHP's portfolio, we believe there is more value to be recognized in the growth we have ahead of us. For example, many in the investment community model growth of around 2% per year through to 2035. While below our estimates of three to 4%. We have a track record of doing what we say we will do and meeting our guidance reliably.

目前，雖然投資人理解 BHP 投資組合的品質，但我們相信，市場仍有更多價值尚未在我們未來的成長中被充分認可。例如，投資界許多人在模型中假設到 2035 年每年約 2% 的成長。這低於我們對 3% 至 4% 的估計。我們一向言出必行，並能可靠地達成我們的指引。

So our job is clear: safely accelerate performance, execute our projects well, and build the next generation of options and develop the strategic relationships that build our resilience.

因此，我們的任務很清楚：在確保安全的前提下加速提升績效、把專案執行到位，並打造下一代成長選項，同時發展能提升我們韌性的策略性關係。

With that, I'll hand over to Vandita to take you through our financial performance.

接下來，我把時間交給 Vandita，帶各位了解我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Brandon. This has been another great year financially. Our portfolio delivered high margins and strong cash flow which allowed us to invest in our growth and deliver very healthy shareholder returns. Let me take you through the numbers.

謝謝你，Brandon。今年在財務上又是非常出色的一年。我們的投資組合帶來高利潤率與強勁現金流，使我們得以投資成長，並為股東創造非常可觀的回報。我來帶各位看一下數字。

Underlying EBITDA for the year was $33 billion, up 27% with a margin of almost 60%. Underlying attributable profit was $13 billion, up 30%, and return on capital employed was 26%. After exceptional items, including a $2.3 billion non-cash impairment relating to Jansen, our total attributable profit increased by 9% to almost $10 billion.

本年度基礎 EBITDA 為 330 億美元，年增 27%，利潤率接近 60%。基礎歸屬利潤為 130 億美元，年增 30%，投入資本報酬率為 26%。在扣除一次性項目後（包括與 Jansen 相關的 23 億美元非現金減損），我們的總歸屬利潤增加 9%，接近 100 億美元。

Cash flow generation was strong, and our balance sheet strengthened with net debt below $9 billion. Based on the strength of these results and proceeds from the Antamina Silver Streaming Agreement, we determined a final dividend of $5 billion. This brings our full-year dividend to $8.7 billion, the highest in four years.

現金流創造強勁，我們的資產負債表也進一步強化，淨負債降至 90 億美元以下。基於這些成果的強勁表現，以及 Antamina 白銀串流協議的款項收入，我們決定發放 50 億美元的期末股利。這使得全年股利達到 87 億美元，為四年來最高。

The earnings waterfall reflects a familiar theme. While higher prices were a clear tailwind, up 35% for copper and 3% for iron ore, our operational performance and cost discipline enabled us to fully capture that benefit.

盈餘瀑布圖反映了一個熟悉的主題。雖然價格上漲是明顯的順風（銅上漲 35%，鐵礦石上漲 3%），但我們的營運表現與成本紀律使我們得以充分掌握這項利多。

Across the group, unit costs improved over 6% despite currency pressures, inflation, and higher diesel and asset prices. This strong performance was achieved across the portfolio.

在匯率壓力、通膨以及柴油與資產價格上升的情況下，集團整體單位成本仍改善超過 6%。這項強勁表現是整個投資組合共同達成的。

Our copper business generated a record $18 billion of EBITDA, 54% of the group total, at a margin of 70%.

我們的銅業務創下 180 億美元 EBITDA 的紀錄，占集團總額的 54%，利潤率達 70%。

Our operational performance, combined with a $4.5 billion contribution from byproducts, saw unit costs improve by 10% at Escondida and over 70% at Copper SA, an impressive result.

我們的營運表現，加上副產品貢獻的 45 億美元，使 Escondida 的單位成本改善 10%，Copper SA 更改善超過 70%，成果令人印象深刻。

WAIO achieved record production and shipments. It was another year in which we delivered a real cost decline, with C1 unit costs up just 1%. And in steelmaking coal, BMA continues to improve performance, with production up 10% over the last two years and the highest stripping volumes in five years.

WAIO 創下產量與出貨量新高。今年我們再次實現實質成本下降，C1 單位成本僅上升 1%。在煉鋼煤方面，BMA 持續改善表現，過去兩年產量提升 10%，剝離量也達到五年來最高。

This slide shows the clear correlation between BOS and performance. The higher the OEI, the more stable and more productive our operations. And this can be seen across assets, processes, and over time.

這張投影片顯示 BOS 與績效之間明確的關聯性。OEI 越高，我們的營運就越穩定、越具生產力。而這可在各項資產、流程以及不同時間維度上觀察到。

It's this last point that's very important. As Brandon said, we don't realize these benefits sustainably overnight. At WAIO, steady improvements in rail productivity have supported record shipments.

最後這一點非常重要。正如 Brandon 所說，我們不可能一夜之間就能持續性地實現這些效益。在 WAIO，鐵路生產力的穩步提升支撐了創紀錄的出貨量。

At Copper SA, we have improved operational stability with year-on-year records at the smelter since the last major maintenance campaign.

在 Copper SA，自上一次大型維修保養作業以來，我們提升了營運穩定性，冶煉廠也連年創下紀錄。

And at Escondida, we have delivered record material mined and record concentrator throughput, helping to offset the impact of grade. This has a real impact on the bottom line.

在 Escondida，我們創下採剝物料量與選礦廠處理量的新高，有助於抵消品位影響。這對最終獲利有實質影響。

Take WAIO as an example. It has remained the world's lowest cost major iron ore producer for a seventh consecutive year. And it has reduced costs in real terms post-COVID, the only major producer to do so. In 2026 alone, this has compounded to a cost saving of over $100 million on a real basis.

以 WAIO 為例。它已連續第七年維持全球最低成本的大型鐵礦石生產商地位。而且在 COVID 之後，它以實質口徑降低成本，是唯一做到的主要生產商。僅在 2026 年，這種累積效應就帶來超過 1 億美元（以實質計）的成本節省。

Our 2027 guidance suggests that we will maintain our cost leadership. Why are we so focused on operational excellence? Firstly, because it provides resilience through the cycle.

我們對 2027 年的指引顯示，我們將維持成本領先地位。為什麼我們如此專注於卓越營運？首先，因為它能在景氣循環中提供韌性。

In addition, inflationary environments drive higher marginal cost, resulting in higher commodity prices across the industry. This gives reliable operators of low-cost assets like BHP, the ability to capture higher margins. You can see this in our cash flows.

此外，在通膨環境下，邊際成本上升，進而推升全產業的商品價格。這讓像 BHP 這樣擁有低成本資產、且營運可靠的業者，能夠掌握更高的利潤率。你可以從我們的現金流中看到這一點。

Our diversified portfolio by design is another competitive advantage. It supports resilient cash flow across market conditions. That allows us to invest in growth and deliver strong returns to shareholders.

我們刻意打造的多元化投資組合，是另一項競爭優勢。它能在不同市場環境下支撐具韌性的現金流。這使我們得以投資成長，並為股東帶來強勁回報。

As this slide shows, at spot prices, we expect to generate around $50 billion in attributable free cash flow over the next five years. That is after funding our investment in growth. And even under a sustained multiyear downside commodity price scenario, we still expect to generate around $15 billion of free cash flow over the period.

如本投影片所示，以即期價格計算，我們預期未來五年可產生約 500 億美元的歸屬自由現金流。這是在支應我們的成長投資之後。即使在持續多年的不利商品價格情境下，我們仍預期在此期間可產生約 150 億美元的自由現金流。

In short, BHP's unique combination of scale, performance, and diversification supports significant and resilient cash flows.

總之，BHP 在規模、績效與多元化方面的獨特組合，支撐了可觀且具韌性的現金流。

Our capital allocation framework, CAF, is how we maximize value from that cash. The discipline it instills has served shareholders well for over a decade now. The foundation of CAF is our consistently strong margins and cash flows, average margins over 50% over the past 25 years and net operating cash flow above $15 billion in all by one year since 2010.

我們的資本配置框架（CAF）是我們用以將這些現金價值最大化的方法。它所建立的紀律，十多年來一直讓股東受益良多。CAF 的基礎是我們一貫強勁的利潤率與現金流：過去 25 年平均利潤率超過 50%，且自 2010 年以來除了一年之外，每年淨營運現金流都高於 150 億美元。

We also continue to release value from our capital base and assets. This includes the potential to unlock around $10 billion in undervalued capital with $6.3 billion of this already executed in the last nine months. On top of this, we received almost $1 billion in cash during the year from previously announced non-core asset sales. This has allowed us to maintain a very strong balance sheet, deliver attractive returns to shareholders, and continue to invest in our high-quality growth.

我們也持續從資本基礎與資產中釋放價值。這包括有機會解鎖約 100 億美元的被低估資本，其中 63 億美元已在過去九個月完成執行。此外，我們在本年度也從先前公告的非核心資產出售中收到近 10 億美元現金。這使我們得以維持非常強健的資產負債表、為股東提供具吸引力的回報，並持續投資於我們的高品質成長。

We now expect CapEx of around $11 billion per year on average over the medium term. This is in nominal terms at constant FX rates. This reflects updated estimates for Jansen Stage 2 and changes in FX, partly offset by improved capital productivity across the rest of the portfolio.

我們目前預期中期平均每年資本支出（CapEx）約 110 億美元。此為名目金額，並以固定匯率（FX）計算。這反映了對 Jansen 第二階段的最新估算與匯率變動；部分則由投資組合其餘部分資本生產力提升所抵銷。

More than half of our growth spend will go to copper and approximately two-thirds if we include investment in our non-operated joint ventures.

我們超過一半的成長支出將投入銅業務；若將對非營運合資企業的投資納入，約占三分之二。

An important feature of our copper CapEx program is that it is entirely self-funding at consensus prices. This is a result of being the largest copper producer which provides a large base of cash flow today and our approach to sequencing and partnerships which allows us to manage spend. This gives us confidence that we can deliver. Are four attractive copper projects at the same time, even without higher copper prices.

我們銅業資本支出計畫的一個重要特點是：在市場共識價格下可完全自籌資金。這得益於我們作為最大銅生產商，今日就擁有龐大的現金流基礎；以及我們在專案排程與合作夥伴策略上的做法，使我們能管理支出節奏。這讓我們有信心能夠交付。同時推進四個具吸引力的銅專案，即使銅價不再上漲也能做到。

And once these projects ramp up, not only will they drive meaningful production growth, they will also deliver significant incremental cash flow. Add to that the cash flows from our iron ore and potash businesses, and we have even more flexibility to fund growth, keep our balance sheet strong, and provide attractive cash returns to shareholders.

而當這些專案逐步達產後，不僅將帶來顯著的產量成長，也會貢獻可觀的新增現金流。再加上我們鐵礦石與鉀肥業務的現金流，我們在資金運用上將更具彈性，得以支持成長、維持強健的資產負債表，並向股東提供具吸引力的現金回饋。

With that, I'll hand back to Brandon.

那麼，我把時間交還給 Brandon。

Thanks, Vandita. For BHP, the implications are clear. The world needs more of the commodities we produce, but the key question is where they will come from.

謝謝你，Vandita。對 BHP 而言，其影響很明確。世界需要更多我們所生產的商品，但關鍵問題在於這些供給將從哪裡來。

WAIO is an asset I know well and which continues to deliver year in, year out. At this asset, we have delivered real cost discipline which is reflected in unit costs, margins, and free cash flow. It is worth repeating, WAIO produces around $10 per tonne more free cash flow than its closest peer and our goal is to increase this margin further. Our plans to progressively increase production and lower unit costs position this outstanding asset to generate value well into the future.

WAIO 是我非常熟悉的一項資產，且年復一年持續交出成果。在這項資產上，我們落實了真正的成本紀律，反映在單位成本、利潤率與自由現金流上。值得重申的是，WAIO 每噸所產生的自由現金流比最接近的同業高出約 10 美元，我們的目標是進一步擴大這個差距。我們逐步提高產量並降低單位成本的計畫，使這項卓越資產在未來很長一段時間內持續創造價值。

Shifting to metallurgical coal, BMA is home to some of the world's best steelmaking coal, an ingredient that will remain critical to steelmaking for decades. Having spent a fair bit of time there as well, I know what that business is capable of and firmly believe its best years are in front of it.

轉到冶金煤，BMA 擁有全球最優質的煉鋼用煤之一，這種原料在未來數十年仍將是煉鋼的關鍵。我也在那裡投入了相當多時間，我了解那個業務的能力，並堅信它最好的年份還在前方。

We have a plan to improve performance and returns, and that plan doesn't include selling the business. Our ongoing focus on strengthening the supply chain and cost productivity is expected to lift production and reduce costs over the medium term. And we believe there is potential to invest further if fiscal conditions improve.

我們有一套提升績效與報酬的計畫，而該計畫不包含出售這項業務。我們持續聚焦於強化供應鏈與成本生產力，預期將在中期提升產量並降低成本。我們也相信，若財政條件改善，仍有進一步投資的潛力。

While WAIO and BMA are exceptional businesses, we are also broadening the portfolio.

雖然 WAIO 與 BMA 都是卓越的業務，我們也正在擴大投資組合。

Jansen will add an attractive new earnings stream, and we are very focused on its delivery. Stage 1 remains on track for first production mid next calendar year and we firmly believe it will be another Tier 1 asset for BHP. Very large, long life, low cost and expandable.

Jansen 將帶來一條具吸引力的新獲利來源，我們非常專注於其交付。第一期仍按計畫於下一個曆年年中首次投產，我們堅信它將成為 BHP 的另一項一級（Tier 1）資產。規模非常大、壽命長、成本低且可擴建。

Once ramped up, it is expected to deliver around $1 billion of EBITDA per year, per stage, with margins above 60%, and a great example of why we focus on the commodities that we do.

一旦完成爬坡，預期每一期每年可貢獻約 10 億美元 EBITDA，利潤率超過 60%，這也很好地說明了我們為何聚焦於這些商品。

Jansen also adds something the rest of the portfolio does not. It will make BHP stronger because potash demand drivers and key customer markets are differentiated from our other commodities. That means prices are less correlated, driving even more stability in earnings and cash flow.

Jansen 也帶來了投資組合其他部分所沒有的特性。由於鉀肥需求驅動因素與主要客戶市場與我們其他商品不同，它將使 BHP 更加強健。這意味著價格相關性較低，進一步提升獲利與現金流的穩定性。

Now, growth only creates value if we deliver it well. Project delivery is therefore a core part of my agenda. We have a solid track record in this area.

現在，成長只有在我們把它做好交付時才會創造價值。因此，專案交付是我議程中的核心部分。我們在這方面有扎實的紀錄。

Over the past decade, around 80% of our projects have come in on time and on budget, the best of the diversified miners. But Jansen has highlighted that we need to further improve our major project performance and we are very focused on this.

過去十年，我們約 80% 的專案按期且按預算完成，為多元化礦商中最佳。但 Jansen 也凸顯我們需要進一步改善重大專案的表現，我們對此高度聚焦。

Embedding BOS and technology into projects is at the center of our approach. And I'm excited to see how much further we can improve our project execution, just as we have seen across operational performance.

將 BOS 與科技嵌入專案，是我們方法的核心。我也很期待看到我們能把專案執行再提升到什麼程度，就如同我們在營運績效上所見到的改善一樣。

While potash broadens our portfolio, copper remains our largest and most important growth opportunity. Our lower risk pathway represents growth of around 50% by the mid-2030s to around 2.5 million tonnes per year of attributable copper equivalent production. This includes over 0.5 million tonnes in copper equivalent terms of byproducts, by itself the size of a significant copper producer. This is attractive capital efficient, predominantly brownfield growth that will further increase the proportion of our earnings from copper.

雖然鉀肥擴大了我們的投資組合，但銅仍是我們最大、最重要的成長機會。我們的較低風險路徑，代表到 2030 年代中期可成長約 50%，達到每年約 250 萬噸的應占銅當量產量。其中包含超過 50 萬噸（以銅當量計）的副產品，單就這部分本身就相當於一家重要的銅生產商規模。這是一條具吸引力、資本效率高、以褐地（brownfield）為主的成長路徑，將進一步提高我們來自銅的獲利占比。

This is an exciting position to be in. The world needs more copper, and BHP has the assets, options ,and capability to help supply it. Assets like Escondida, which continues to perform strongly. It remains a world-class copper asset that we intend to invest in further.

這是一個令人振奮的局面。世界需要更多銅，而 BHP 擁有資產、選項與能力來協助供應。例如 Escondida 這類資產，持續展現強勁表現。它仍是一項世界級銅資產，我們打算進一步投資。

We have just approved around $500 million in pre-commitment funding for Escondida's new concentrator. And expect to make a final investment decision in 2027 or 2028.

我們剛剛核准約 5 億美元的預先承諾資金，用於 Escondida 的新選礦廠（concentrator）。並預期在 2027 或 2028 年做出最終投資決策。

As we move toward that point, the project continues to improve. The optimized scope is expected to deliver higher throughput, production, and returns with the updated capital estimate reflecting the larger scale and design improvements.

在我們朝那個時間點邁進的過程中，該專案持續改善。優化後的範疇預期可帶來更高的處理量、產量與報酬，而更新後的資本估算反映了更大的規模與設計改良。

It is a great example of our project delivery approach and the way we continuously look to optimize our projects.

這是我們專案交付方法，以及我們持續尋求優化專案方式的絕佳例子。

At Copper South Australia, we delivered the highest production at Olympic Dam in 20 years, and our unit cost declined to just $0.32 per pound, benefiting from $2.3 billion of byproduct revenue. As a result, we set new records for EBITDA and free cash flow. This consistency in performance provides a strong platform from which to invest.

在南澳銅業（Copper South Australia），我們讓 Olympic Dam 創下 20 年來最高產量，單位成本降至每磅僅 0.32 美元，受惠於 23 億美元的副產品收入。因此，我們創下 EBITDA 與自由現金流的新紀錄。這種表現的一致性，為我們提供了強而有力的投資平台。

We are looking at ways to accelerate production growth and look forward to providing an update on Copper South Australia at our SAT tour later this year.

我們正在尋找加速產量成長的方法，並期待在今年稍晚的 SAT 參訪活動中，提供南澳銅業的最新進展。

We are also progressing the next generation of copper mines, notably the Vicuña joint venture with Lundin Mining. During the half, Vicuña received environmental approval for Stage 1, as well as approval under Argentina's [riggy] scheme, which provides fiscal stability for 40 years.

我們也在推進下一代銅礦，尤其是與 Lundin Mining 的 Vicuña 合資企業。在本半年度期間，Vicuña 取得第一期的環境許可，並在阿根廷的 [riggy] 計畫下獲得核准，該計畫提供 40 年的財政穩定性。

Most recently, Vicuña signed a royalty agreement with the San Juan province. These are key milestones as we progress toward a final investment decision on Stage 1, potentially as early as the end of this calendar year.

最近，Vicuña 與聖胡安省（San Juan）簽署了權利金協議。這些都是我們朝第一期最終投資決策邁進的關鍵里程碑，最早可能在本曆年年底作出決策。

Once all three stages are fully developed. Vicuña has the potential to be a global top five copper and top five gold producing asset.

一旦三期全部完成開發。Vicuña 有潛力成為全球前五大銅與前五大黃金生產資產。

So in closing, BHP is a company in tremendous health. We are delivering operationally, financially, have an industry leading growth pipeline, and we are investing in the project capability to deliver it for value. This is a platform for success and a testament to the hard work of our teams across the world.

總結來說，BHP 是一家健康狀況極佳的公司。我們在營運與財務上都在交付成果，擁有業界領先的成長管線，並且正在投資專案能力，以交付並創造價值。這是一個成功的平台，也證明了我們全球團隊的辛勤付出。

The agenda from here is clear. First, accelerate performance using BOS and technology to deliver safer, more stable operations and lower unit costs.

接下來的議程很清楚。第一，運用 BOS 與科技加速績效提升，實現更安全、更穩定的營運並降低單位成本。

Second, deliver disciplined programmatic growth with industry-leading project execution capability.

第二，以紀律推動計畫式成長，並具備業界領先的專案執行能力。

And third, build on our foundations and strengthen our resilience.

第三，在既有基礎上再接再厲，強化我們的韌性。

Across all three, discipline remains central. Our competitive advantage is not about any single asset. It is the combination of world-class assets, operational excellence, disciplined capital allocation, technology, and a balance sheet that allows us to invest consistently through the cycle.

在這三項之中，紀律仍是核心。我們的競爭優勢不在於任何單一資產。而在於世界級資產、卓越營運、紀律性的資本配置、科技，以及使我們能在景氣循環中持續投資的資產負債表，這些要素的組合。

I am truly excited about what the future holds for BHP and what we can deliver together.

我對 BHP 的未來以及我們能共同交付的成果感到非常振奮。

Thank you for your support.

感謝各位的支持。

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to BHP's results for the 2026 financial year investor and analyst presentation and Q&A session. Firstly, I advise you that this conference is being recorded today. (Operator Instructions)

感謝各位稍候，歡迎參加 BHP 2026 財政年度業績的投資人與分析師簡報及問答環節。首先提醒各位，本次會議今天將進行錄音。(接線員指示)

Paul Young, Goldman Sachs.

Paul Young，高盛。

First of all, first question is on costs. Great to see that you're quantifying the impacts from BOS the $5 billion number. Can I start just with the cost performance at Escondida because it's saying there was a $200 million to $300 million cost beat in the June half, that's why at the group level, EBITDA beats a great performance and you're outperforming peers.

首先，第一個問題關於成本。很高興看到你們量化了 BOS 的影響，也就是 50 億美元這個數字。我想先從 Escondida 的成本表現談起，因為你們提到在 6 月半年度有 2 億到 3 億美元的成本優於預期；這也是為什麼在集團層面，EBITDA 優於預期、表現非常出色，並且你們的表現優於同業。

So Brandon, can you just talk through just specifically at Escondida and I should say also the guidance for '27 is better than expected as well. What actually are you doing at Escondida around BOS, truck productivity, use of less contract, is there anything you can share with respect to explaining the absolute cost state? Thanks.

那麼 Brandon，你能否具體談談 Escondida 的情況？我也想說，對於 2027 年的指引看起來也比預期更好。你們在 Escondida 針對 BOS、卡車生產力、減少承包商使用等方面，實際上做了哪些事？在解釋絕對成本水準方面，有沒有什麼可以分享的？謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Paul. I'll make a couple of comments and then I'll also throw it to Vandita to see if she wants to add to that.

好的，謝謝你，Paul。我先講幾點，然後也把問題交給 Vandita，看看她是否要補充。

Listen, Escondida is clearly one of the assets in the business that's leading on the operating system. So what that means is we have teams where the culture is very focused on identifying any source of waste and getting that waste out of the business at multiple levels inside the organization.

你看，Escondida 顯然是公司裡在營運系統方面領先的資產之一。這代表我們有一些團隊，其文化非常專注於辨識任何浪費來源，並在組織內多個層級把這些浪費從業務中移除。

But having said that, Escondida has also done a tremendous job at connecting technology and the latest technology, particularly processing technology into the business. So you will see that recovery rates across the concentrator have improved, you can see that the leaching performance has improved.

不過話說回來，Escondida 也在把科技、最新科技（尤其是製程技術）導入業務方面做得非常出色。因此你會看到選礦廠整體的回收率提升，也能看到浸出表現改善。

So across the board, technology deployment, in some respects AI in terms of improving process recovery, more traditional cost out, all of that comes together to produce not only record concentrators throughput and record mining production out of Escondida, but it also translates into that unit cost performance. But let me stop there and make some additional comments.

所以整體而言，科技部署——某些方面包括用 AI 來提升製程回收——再加上較傳統的降本措施，這些都結合在一起，不僅讓 Escondida 的選礦廠處理量創新高、採礦產量也創新高，同時也反映在單位成本表現上。不過我先講到這裡，等一下再補充一些評論。

Indeed. And from a guidance perspective, adding to what Brandon said, the guidance, as you would see from the midpoint perspective, almost 40% of that poll is actually input costs.

確實如此。從指引的角度補充 Brandon 的說法，如果你看中位數的觀點，幾乎有 40% 的那個變動其實是投入成本。

Sulfuric acid continues to be high, diesel continues to be high. So think of it. This way that the guidance for Escondida has within it 40% of that increase in guidance is purely due to input cost and of course we have that includes FX as well so there are some one-offs relating to it and the rest of it is just a mathematical equation around production. So a very good cost outcome, not just for Escondida, but overall, if you see, that continues to be the case.

硫酸價格仍然偏高，柴油也仍然偏高。所以可以這樣理解：Escondida 的指引中，指引上調的 40% 純粹是因投入成本所致，當然也包含匯率（FX），因此其中有一些一次性因素；其餘部分則只是與產量相關的數學計算。所以這是一個非常好的成本結果，不只是 Escondida，整體來看也是如此，而且你會看到這種情況仍在延續。

WAIO guidance on unit cost is also a great example of where BOS is doing its trick, if I can say it that way, with the 7% increase in unit cost in WAIO, 80% of that is just one-off, which is due to FX change and due to working through the inventory levels given our supply chain issues last year.

WAIO 的單位成本指引也是一個很好的例子，說明 BOS 正在發揮作用——如果我可以這麼說的話——WAIO 單位成本上升 7% 中，有 80% 只是一次性因素，主要來自匯率變動，以及在去年供應鏈問題下，我們消化庫存水位所造成的影響。

But for that, the increase in cost is only 1.3%, which is a fraction of the expected inflation and CPI. So WAIO is doing what it has done for the last four years and in the guidance you can see that underlying performance, they will mitigate quite a bit of the inflation next year as well.

撇除那些因素後，成本增加只有 1.3%，遠低於預期的通膨與 CPI。因此 WAIO 正在做它過去四年一直在做的事；而在指引中你也能看到那個基本面表現，他們明年也將抵銷相當一部分的通膨。

Yes. Okay. Thanks for that explanation. And then can we talk about the copper growth? I mean, a few updates today, a lot of big projects progressing, a good update from Escondida today on upsizing the new concentrator.

是的。好的。謝謝你的說明。接著我們能談談銅的成長嗎？我的意思是，今天有幾個更新，很多大型專案在推進，Escondida 今天也對新選礦廠擴大規模提供了不錯的更新。

But just specifically on Copper SA, I think that probably the growth in SA copper in Phase 1 probably explains most of the gap between your 3% to 4% that you put out there as guidance over the next decade or so and compared to the street at 2% to 3%. I see today you've outlined a 10 million tonne block cave concept at OD. I know we've got the side visit coming up in November, but just talking very high level on this because it's a big project, it seems -- but is this really the concept here, transposing the Carra block cave design and does this imply that OD mining rates effectively will double because that's what my calculations show, thanks.

但就 Copper SA 而言，我認為第一階段南澳銅的成長，可能解釋了你們所提出未來十年左右 3% 到 4% 指引，與市場共識 2% 到 3% 之間的大部分差距。我看到你們今天概述了 OD 一個每年 1,000 萬噸的崩落採礦（block cave）概念。我知道 11 月會有現場參訪，但先用很高層次來談，因為這是個很大的專案——看起來是這樣——但這裡的概念是否真的是把 Carra 的崩落採礦設計移植過來？這是否意味著 OD 的採礦速率實際上會翻倍？因為我的計算顯示是這樣，謝謝。

Paul, thanks. Listen, there's so many permutations to this particular answer.

Paul，謝謝。你看，這個問題的答案有非常多種可能的組合與情境。

Now, I think if you step back and you have a look at what Olympic Dam is trying to do, you're not primarily solving for the copper-sulfur ratio in the smelter by putting a two-stage smelter.

我想如果你退一步看 Olympic Dam 想做什麼，你們主要不是透過建置兩段式熔煉廠來解決熔煉端的銅—硫比問題。

And as we've mentioned before, that allows us to reconfigure the upstream portion of Olympic Dam. So whether it's Carrapateena or longer-term Olympic Dam underground options, the potential to study significant increases in capacity through block caving technology or similar becomes real.

而且如同我們之前提到的，那讓我們能重新配置 Olympic Dam 的上游部分。因此，不論是 Carrapateena，或是更長期的 Olympic Dam 地下開採選項，透過崩落採礦技術或類似技術來研究顯著提升產能的可能性，就變得可行且具體。

And you get the twin benefit of a simple -- not simpler to get it going, but ultimately a simpler operation in the future when you've got these block caves established, higher volumes, lower cost. And that really supports the underlying economics of the whole program. So when you think of the multiple phases of growth we intend to go through at Olympic Dam, it's how that whole network combination comes together to be able to deliver what we think is going to be a very attractive project.

而你會得到雙重效益：不是說啟動更簡單——啟動並不更簡單——但最終當這些崩落採場建立起來後，未來的營運會更為簡化，產量更高、成本更低。而這確實支撐了整個計畫的基本經濟性。所以當你思考我們打算在 Olympic Dam 推進的多個成長階段時，關鍵在於整個網絡式的組合如何整合在一起，從而交付我們認為將會非常具吸引力的專案。

And the only thing I would add to that, Paul, is on your comment around CapEx for Copper South Australia, the only change is due to FX. Historically, we have given the CapEx guidance at AUD0.68. Now, we have revised that to $0.70. No other change.

Paul，我唯一要補充的是，關於你提到 Copper South Australia 的資本支出（CapEx），唯一的變動是因匯率（FX）。過去我們以 AUD0.68 提供 CapEx 指引；現在我們把它修正為 0.70 美元。沒有其他變動。

Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley.

Rahul Anand，Morgan Stanley。

Brandon and Vandita, thanks for the call. Brandon, congratulations for your first financial result. Obviously, a pretty good one to start off with. And thanks also for the Olympic Dam clarity around the block cape that you were just speaking to. That's quite exciting and obviously we're looking forward to the side trip later this year.

Brandon 和 Vandita，謝謝這通電話會議。Brandon，恭喜你第一次發布財務業績。顯然，作為開局這是一份相當不錯的成績。也謝謝你剛才對 Olympic Dam 崩落採礦（block cave）的說明，讓事情更清楚。這相當令人振奮，我們也很期待今年稍晚的現場參訪。

I might start with slide 8 where you've talked about BOS and the 7,000 projects. Obviously, quite remarkable. You've saved a lot of money there. You've highlighted $5.1 billion in the first year of these projects combined. And you do have your OEI score which is rising again in FY27 and then you set yourself an aspirational target as well for the future.

我先從第 8 張投影片開始，你們談到 BOS 和 7,000 個專案。顯然相當驚人。你們在那裡省下了很多錢。你們強調這些專案合計在第一年就達到 51 億美元。而且你們的 OEI 分數在 FY27 又再次上升，並且也為未來設定了一個具企圖心的目標。

I guess for investors and ourselves, how much of these benefits that you can get from these projects have you currently accounted for in your medium-term guidance? I'm just trying to understand, would we be able to see a bit more come through? Does that mean just performing to the low end of medium-term guidance? How should we think about this operational performance that continues to improve at BHP? That's the first one, thanks.

我想對投資人以及我們而言，目前你們在中期指引中，已經把這些專案能帶來的效益納入多少？我只是想了解，我們是否還能看到更多效益逐步反映出來？這是否意味著只要達到中期指引的低端？我們應該如何看待 BHP 持續改善的營運表現？這是第一個問題，謝謝。

So Rahul, it's a great question. I think I'll keep my answer relatively simple, which is clearly, these improvement savings are going to contribute to medium-term guidance, but to be able to draw a direct correlation or relationship to where specifically in guidance this is going to come out, I'm probably not going to go there.

Rahul，這是個很好的問題。我想我會把回答盡量簡化：很明顯，這些改善節省將會對中期指引有所貢獻；但要直接建立一個明確的對應關係，說這些節省會在指引中的哪個具體項目反映出來，我大概不會那樣回答。

What I would call out with BOS though is if you have a look at the slide 8 that you referenced, what we set out here is really only the first year of each of these initiatives in terms of their value. So if you actually turn this around and you do a cumulative impact, you're going to see the number is a lot larger than this.

不過我想就 BOS 強調的是，如果你看你提到的第 8 張投影片，我們在這裡列出的其實只是每一項倡議在第一年的價值。所以如果你把它反過來看、做成累積影響，你會看到這個數字會比現在大得多。

And you then extrapolate an increasing maturity, not only across the operations, but even across projects, how our functions operate, you can get a sense of how we can improve the overall cost efficiency of the entire BHP business through this type of approach. And that is really our focus, broad-based waste elimination across every part of the business, just being part of the DNA and the culture of the business. And that's what you can see after what has been sort of seven years on this BOS journey. And we've got decades to come.

接著你會推演出成熟度的提升，不僅橫跨各項營運，甚至延伸到各個專案、我們各項職能的運作方式；透過這種方法，你就能感受到我們如何提升整個BHP業務的整體成本效率。而這正是我們真正的重點：在業務的每一個環節全面消除浪費，讓它成為企業DNA與文化的一部分。這也是你在這段BOS旅程走了大約七年之後所能看到的成果。而未來還有數十年要走。

And I guess to add to that is that this should give you, if it was needed, greater confidence in our medium-term guidance, which I know some people give us credit for and some don't. So hopefully, this also gives you higher confidence given the performance this year, BOS continuing to get embedded to take the medium-term guidance for what it is, i.e., The delivery that we are intending to do.

我想補充的是，這應該能讓你（如果需要的話）對我們的中期指引更有信心；我知道有些人會因此給我們肯定，有些人則不會。因此希望今年的表現、以及BOS持續深化落地，也能讓你更有信心，按其本意來看待中期指引，也就是：我們打算交付的成果。

And then Rahul, let's make one further comment, which is we're very mindful on being disciplined in terms of how we portray the benefits coming out of the operating system. So on that slide, you can see we refer to cost.

然後Rahul，我們再補充一點：我們非常注意在呈現營運系統所帶來的效益時要保持紀律。所以在那張投影片上，你可以看到我們提到的是成本。

We haven't captured benefits related to improved production performance as a function of efficiency projects that lift availability, reliability and so on. These are more pure cost out type of projects.

我們尚未納入因效率專案提升可用率、可靠性等而帶來的產量表現改善相關效益。這些更偏向是純粹的降本類型專案。

So when you think of BOS actually applying to the revenue line of the business, it gives you an even stronger sense of how much sort of value in headroom still exists through the way we work.

因此，當你想到BOS其實也能應用到業務的營收端時，你會更強烈地感受到：透過我們的工作方式，仍然存在相當大的價值空間（headroom）。

No, absolutely. I mean, it's pleasing to see, especially given the metric is pretty standardized by an external third-party and it kind of benchmarks quite in a bit of an unbiased way, which is pleasing to see.

不，完全同意。我的意思是，很高興看到這點，尤其是因為這個指標是由外部第三方相當標準化地制定，並且以相當客觀、不偏頗的方式進行基準比較，看到這樣的結果令人欣慰。

Okay, look, my second question is for Vandita. Vandita, obviously dividend, a really good surprise today. But understand also that here the key drivers include you have a current asset crystallization program, which has really good momentum.

好的，我的第二個問題想請教Vandita。Vandita，今天的股利顯然是個非常好的驚喜。但我也理解，這裡的關鍵驅動因素包括你們正在推動的現有資產價值釋放（crystallization）計畫，進展動能很強。

And then in terms of your net debt, you are below your target range. So I guess I wanted to check, how should we think about payouts in periods where you do remain below your target range? Can we expect higher payout ratios to continue during those periods? And then if there's any update on the acid crystallization as well, please. Thanks.

另外就淨負債而言，你們低於目標區間。所以我想確認的是：在你們仍低於目標區間的期間，我們應該如何看待股利/回饋（payouts）？在那些期間，我們是否可以預期較高的派付率會持續？另外也請更新一下資產價值釋放的進度。謝謝。

Yeah, sure, Rahul. So the way you should think about it is the way our capital allocation framework is intended to work, which is 50% is what you can bank always and that's the way we do it. But every six months, hopefully, this results as well as last 10 years of application of capital allocation framework has shown that we actually do CAF in action every six months and look at the cash flows coming in, outlook which we have both operational cash flows as well as any other cash generation which has been done and take decisions on that basis.

好的，當然可以，Rahul。你可以這樣理解：我們的資本配置框架（CAF）原本就是這樣運作的——50%是你永遠可以依賴的基準，我們也一直如此執行。但每六個月，我們都會（希望如此）像這次結果以及過去十年資本配置框架的實踐所顯示的那樣，實際運用CAF：每六個月檢視流入的現金流、我們對前景的看法（包括營運現金流以及任何其他已實現的現金創造），並據此做出決策。

So I would say that 50% is 50% but you can take confidence that based on the balance sheet strength, based on cash flows with investing into attractive growth and outlook. We are very pleased also reward the shareholders with higher returns.

所以我會說，50%就是50%；但你可以有信心的是：基於資產負債表的強健、基於現金流、以及在投資具吸引力的成長與前景之下，我們也非常樂於以更高的回報來回饋股東。

Just on that, not putting a line to it, but you would have seen in the presentation, we've talked about how over next five years with the CapEx program that we have laid out, which is very attractive, we still have attributable free cash flow after all that investment at consensus prices of $35 billion.

再補充一點，我們不會把它畫成一條固定的線，但你在簡報中也看到，我們談到未來五年依照我們所規劃的資本支出（CapEx）計畫——這個計畫非常具吸引力——即使完成所有投資，在市場一致預期價格下，我們仍有可歸屬自由現金流達350億美元。

So that can give you confidence in the kind of strength and resilience of this business to do all those three things together, have a strong balance sheet, have high-quality growth and investment and reward shareholders for attractive returns.

因此，這能讓你對本業的實力與韌性更有信心：能同時做到這三件事——維持強健的資產負債表、進行高品質成長與投資、並以具吸引力的回報回饋股東。

Just on your last question around the $10 billion unlock of value, very pleased to have done $6.5 billion and completed that program over the last nine months and today obviously, announced completion of the $2 billion as well.

至於你最後一個問題，關於100億美元的價值釋放（unlock of value），我們很高興在過去九個月已完成65億美元並完成了該計畫的一部分，且今天也宣布完成另外20億美元。

On the balance of $3.5 billion, I would say think of it as something that we'll work on. There isn't a timeframe to it, and we are not in a hurry to do a deal just for the sake of it. We are very clear that the bar on these transactions remains very high.

至於剩餘的35億美元，我會說把它視為我們會持續推進的工作。這件事沒有既定時程，我們也不會為了交易而交易、急著做案子。我們非常清楚，這些交易的門檻仍然非常高。

We will not give up any strategic or operational control of critical assets. We will be very clear that the scale of the deal has to be worth doing as well as the economics and commercials should be such that we absolutely think this is a real unlock of commercial value.

我們不會放棄任何關鍵資產的策略或營運控制權。我們也會非常明確：交易規模必須值得做，同時其經濟性與商業條款必須讓我們確信，這確實是對商業價值的真正釋放。

So things that we will work on but no timeline to the balance, but very confident that we will meet our target over a period of time.

所以這些是我們會持續推進的事項，但對於剩餘部分沒有時間表；不過我們非常有信心，隨著時間推進，我們會達成目標。

James Redfern, RBC Capital Markets.

James Redfern，RBC資本市場。

Thank you. Good morning, Brandon, Vandita. I hope you're well. My first question is for you, Brandon, just regarding the Vicuña Stage 1 project. You did talk about it briefly in your comments. There's been strong progress there. Just wondering what's required to reach an FID by the end of the year for Vicuña. Please, thank you. That's the first one.

謝謝。早安，Brandon、Vandita。希望你們一切都好。我的第一個問題想請教你，Brandon，關於Vicuña第一階段（Stage 1）專案。你在發言中有簡要提到。那邊進展很強勁。想請問要在年底前讓Vicuña達到最終投資決策（FID），還需要哪些條件？麻煩了，謝謝。這是第一個問題。

Yeah, super. We're really happy with the progress at Vicuña. When you think of some of the key challenges we've had to work on over the last two years, we had to get all the issues with the glacial ore resolved.

好的，很棒。我們對Vicuña的進展非常滿意。回顧過去兩年我們必須處理的一些關鍵挑戰，我們需要先把冰川礦石（glacial ore）相關的所有問題解決。

We had to secure riggy, which we did. So we got the strategic riggy, which gives us 40 years of stability.

我們也必須確保riggy（原文用語），而我們已經做到了。因此我們取得了具策略性的riggy（原文用語），這讓我們有40年的穩定性。

More recently, we finalized securing power, and obviously, we finalized the royalty agreement with the San Juan province.

更近期，我們完成了電力供應的確保；當然，我們也與聖胡安省（San Juan province）敲定了權利金協議。

So from that perspective, some of the more material issues we needed to get comfortable on to support an FID decision, we sort of reached that point.

因此從這個角度來看，為了支持FID決策、我們需要釐清並確認的一些較重大議題，我們已經大致走到那個階段。

The final stage we're now working through is really just finalizing the estimate to make sure we've really got that right, because we need to really understand all matters related to construction at altitude. We're going to have a camp that's at about 4,000, 4,200 meters, and we're going to have a significant construction workforce working at altitude, there's going to be wind and a whole bunch of other environmental factors we have to understand and factor in the estimate. That work is currently underway. We expect it to be finalized shortly.

我們目前正在推進的最後階段，主要就是把估算（estimate）定案，確保我們真的做對了，因為我們必須充分理解所有與高海拔施工相關的事項。我們會有一個營地，大約在4,000到4,200公尺，並且會有相當規模的施工人力在高海拔作業；會有風以及一系列其他環境因素，我們都必須理解並納入估算。這項工作目前正在進行中。我們預期很快就會完成定案。

And on the back of that, I think we're going to have a lot of the preconditions that we're going to need to take to our board to ultimately sanction the project.

在此基礎上，我認為我們將具備許多必要的前提條件，能提交董事會，最終核准（sanction）該專案。

So we are on track potentially for an FID before the end of this calendar year if that all continues to go well. But we still have to finalize that work before we can obviously commit to that.

因此，如果一切持續順利，我們有望在本曆年年底前做出FID。但在我們能夠做出承諾之前，仍必須先完成上述工作。

But I think the headline message here is the Vicuña team has done a tremendous job and we've made really rapid progress across quite a number of complex issues. So it's looking good.

但我想這裡的重點訊息是：Vicuña團隊做得非常出色，我們在多項複雜議題上取得了非常快速的進展。所以看起來很不錯。

Thanks, Brandon. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，Brandon。非常感謝。

My second question is for Vandita. Vandita, just looking at slide 19, talk about the very strong free cash flow, cumulative free cash flow between FY27 and '31. If we look at consensus, $35 billion, I just want to understand, is that BHP's cumulative free cash flow forecast based on consensus pricing? Because if I look at visible alpha consensus is about $37 billion of cumulative free cash flow during that same period. So I just want to -- where's that sort of $20 billion of delta, if that makes sense?

我的第二個問題是問 Vandita。Vandita，我看一下第 19 頁投影片，談到非常強勁的自由現金流，FY27 到 '31 之間的累計自由現金流。如果我們看市場共識是 350 億美元，我想了解的是：那是否是基於共識價格所推估的 BHP 累計自由現金流預測？因為如果我看 Visible Alpha 的共識，在同一期間的累計自由現金流大約是 370 億美元。所以我想問的是——如果這樣說得通的話，那大約 200 億美元的差額是從哪裡來的？

So I'm not sure I lost you a little bit on that. So the consensus, yeah.

所以我不太確定，我有點跟不上你的意思。所以共識，是的。

Well, yeah, maybe if I rephrase the question.

嗯，是的，也許我可以換個方式問。

Yeah.

好。

Yeah, so if I rephrase it, consensus free cash flow forecast today $11 billion per year for the next five years. And so the cumulative free cash flow is $57 billion between FY27 and '31 compared to your slide of $35 billion. And I just want to understand where that difference might be. Is that because consensus doesn't have the CapEx relating to projects that BHP plans to sanction, particularly in copper? Does that help?

好，所以我換個方式說，今天的共識自由現金流預測是未來五年每年 110 億美元。因此 FY27 到 '31 的累計自由現金流是 570 億美元，相較於你們投影片上的 350 億美元。我只是想了解這個差異可能來自哪裡。是否因為共識沒有納入 BHP 計畫核准（sanction）的專案相關資本支出，特別是在銅方面？這樣有比較清楚嗎？

Yeah. So just to be clear what we've got that in there, that has all the projects, including the NOJV, because it's a cash out is what we assume, all commitments. So for example, Samarco is $1 billion here, $0.5 billion there, that's all included. And then internal trajectory of those cash flows and production profile along with the commitments that we know about comes into that. So there is nothing which we have not counted in terms of either our commitments or CapEx in that and this is of course based on our internal trajectory of operational performance, volume, and CapEx trajectory. So the prices have been applied to that. Hopefully, that clarifies. Is that clear?

有。所以先釐清一下，我們放在裡面的數字包含所有專案，包括 NOJV，因為我們假設那是現金流出，包含所有承諾。例如，Samarco 這裡 10 億美元、那裡 5 億美元，這些都已經包含在內。然後，這些現金流與產量曲線的內部推進路徑，加上我們已知的承諾，都會納入其中。所以就我們的承諾或資本支出而言，沒有任何我們未計入的項目；而且這當然是基於我們對營運表現、產量以及資本支出路徑的內部推進假設。價格也已套用在此基礎上。希望這能釐清。這樣清楚嗎？

Yeah. Thank you.

清楚。謝謝。

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

UBS 的 Lachlan Shaw。

Good morning, Brandon, Vandita. Congratulations on a strong result, particularly for you, Brandon, first results. Two questions from me.

早安，Brandon、Vandita。恭喜你們交出強勁的成績，特別是你 Brandon，這是你第一次發布業績。我有兩個問題。

Firstly, I just wanted to start out on Queensland Coal. It's obviously some green shoots performance-wise there, which is pleasing, but I am interested particularly in, I suppose, the medium-term outlook and the [ROCE] chart kind of highlights, I guess what I'd say is part of the challenge here. What are the thoughts that you have, perhaps Brandon, in terms of if the fiscal regime in Queensland remains unchanged, what can you do to stabilize or sort of advance the operational performance here in terms of strip ratio, haul distance, et cetera, and ultimately get this business to where it would ideally want to be in terms of financial performance? I'll come back with my second.

第一個，我想先從昆士蘭煤炭談起。顯然在表現上看到一些回溫的跡象，這令人欣慰，但我特別關心的是，我想是中期展望，而 [ROCE] 圖表某種程度上突顯了我認為這裡的一部分挑戰。Brandon，你們的想法是，如果昆士蘭的財政制度維持不變，你們能做些什麼來穩定或提升這裡的營運表現，例如剝採比、運距等等，並最終讓這項業務在財務表現上達到理想狀態？我等一下再問第二個問題。

Yeah, super. So when you have a look at BMA, let me just step back for a minute. The Bowen Basin is one of the preeminent metallurgical coal basins of the world, and there's only a small handful of them. And BMA's clearly got a very strong resource position in the Bowen Basin. And then having a look at market fundamentals.

好，很好。談到 BMA，我先退一步說明一下。Bowen 盆地是全球最頂尖的冶金煤盆地之一，而這樣的盆地全世界只有少數幾個。BMA 在 Bowen 盆地顯然擁有非常強的資源優勢。再來看市場基本面。

The future for metallurgical coal in our view is quite strong and that's really on the back of the ongoing industrialization we see in India. So when you have a look at steel industry growth in India, we do think the market is going to continue to support met coal.

我們認為冶金煤的未來相當強勁，主要是因為我們看到印度持續的工業化進程。所以當你看印度鋼鐵產業的成長，我們確實認為市場將持續支撐冶金煤。

So the critical thing then becomes the productivity we can get out of the BMA basin. And we have teams working really hard on that currently because your point on where it sits in the ROCE chart now is valid.

因此，關鍵就變成我們能從 BMA 盆地取得多少生產力。目前我們的團隊正非常努力在這方面推進，因為你提到它目前在 ROCE 圖表上的位置，確實是合理的觀察。

We believe we're going to be able to get BMA back to being a more important pillar or higher-value contributing pillar within the BHP portfolio. And that's going to be a combination of how we set up EMA for success in terms of mine design and operations.

我們相信能讓 BMA 回到在 BHP 投資組合中更重要、或更高價值貢獻的支柱地位。這將結合我們如何在礦山設計與營運上，讓 EMA 具備成功的配置。

The operating system is going to play a key role in all of that, and BMA also has a lot of opportunity to continue to deploy technology. So the ability to progressively do automation and a range of other options is going to support that performance.

營運系統將在其中扮演關鍵角色，而 BMA 也有很大的空間持續導入科技。因此，逐步推動自動化以及一系列其他選項的能力，將支撐其表現。

And then when you look at the life of this business, we're talking multiple decades of life out of BMA. And we will continue to work with the Queensland government to try and address the royalty issue. And the benefit we have is because this is a genuinely Tier 1 resource position where we can work through that effectively over time.

再者，從這項業務的壽命來看，我們談的是 BMA 還有數十年的礦山壽命。我們也會持續與昆士蘭政府合作，嘗試解決權利金（royalty）問題。我們的優勢在於，這確實是一個真正的第一級（Tier 1）資源優勢地位，因此我們能隨時間有效地處理這些問題。

I do think what we're going to see is BMA recover its position as a critical pillar in the portfolio, and we have the team on the ground working on that currently.

我確實認為我們將看到 BMA 恢復其作為投資組合關鍵支柱的地位，而我們的在地團隊目前正為此努力。

It reflected also in the medium-term guidance of 43 million to 45 million tonnes with the unit cost of [$120 million] per tonne.

這也反映在中期指引：4,300 萬至 4,500 萬噸，單位成本為每噸 [1.2 億美元]。

Great. Thank you. That's good color.

很好。謝謝。這些補充很有幫助。

Second question then, and I know we've talked a little bit about BOS, but I wanted to touch quickly just on technology and you referred to that in respect of BMA. Just more broadly, if you look at what you've achieved to date in terms of EBITDA uplift from technology, what would you say in terms of how far you progressed on that journey? What's the runway ahead of you in front of the ability to deploy technology to fundamentally re-engineer processes to extract more value? Thank you.

第二個問題，我知道我們已經稍微談過 BOS，但我想快速觸及一下科技，你也在談 BMA 時提到。更廣泛地說，如果看你們迄今在科技帶來的 EBITDA 提升方面所達成的成果，你會怎麼評估你們在這段旅程中走到哪裡？在運用科技從根本重新設計流程、以萃取更多價值方面，你們前方還有多長的跑道？謝謝。

I mean, the frank assessment is our initial results are encouraging, but I think the runway is long. I think we are not alone in trying to work out how to use some of the latest advances in technology within our business. Whether that be across our physical processes, whether that's across how we make decisions, whether it's across how we do some fundamental things like mine design and the number of permutations we have to run on those types of processes.

我的坦率評估是：我們的初步成果令人鼓舞，但我認為跑道還很長。我們並不是唯一在摸索如何把一些最新的科技進展用在企業中的公司。不論是用在我們的實體流程、用在我們如何做決策，或是用在一些根本性的事情上，例如礦山設計，以及在這類流程中我們必須跑的各種排列組合數量。

And even to how we think about technology across the installed asset base we have, for example, processing infrastructure trucks and similar.

甚至也包括我們如何把科技運用到既有的資產基礎上，例如處理設施、卡車以及類似設備。

So because of that, I think we've still got a really, really long way to go before we can claim to have extracted the full value that technology can offer. But my assessment is frank in terms of we're still learning how to do this well. And there's a couple of really interesting use cases.

因此，我認為在我們能宣稱已完全萃取科技所能提供的全部價值之前，還有非常、非常長的路要走。但我的評估也很坦白：我們仍在學習如何把這件事做好。而且有幾個非常有意思的應用案例。

I'll just cite one or two just as an example to show you what's possible. One of the things you would have seen last year is we've been having some challenges in processing complex or expense. We put an AI model across how the concentrator functions that really helped us address or feed, set point settings in that facility to be able to improve the recovery quite significantly from where we were. That's such a good case study of what is possible with technology. And we did that relatively quickly. It only took us a couple of months.

我只舉一兩個例子，讓你看看有哪些可能性。你去年可能看到的一件事是，我們在處理複雜或高成本（expense）的礦石時遇到一些挑戰。我們在選礦廠（concentrator）的運作上導入 AI 模型，確實幫助我們調整該設施的給料與設定點（set point）參數，讓回收率相較於原先水準有顯著提升。這是一個非常好的案例研究，展示科技能做到什麼。而且我們做得相對快。只花了幾個月。

We have technology being deployed across how we do leaching, very complex processes that is very hard to address performance through primary research yet large language models applied across the recovery we get out of some of these facilities.

我們正在把技術部署到我們進行浸出作業的各個環節；這些是非常複雜的流程，僅靠一手研究很難改善其績效，但將大型語言模型應用於回收流程，能提升我們在部分設施中取得的回收率。

I've proven in some of our competitors to be very effective and we're seeing the same sort of outcomes in BHP. And there's so many more examples. I won't waste any more time on this call, but I think we're only in the initial phases of what is really going to be possible here.

我已在我們的一些競爭對手那裡證明這非常有效，而我們在必和必拓也看到了同樣類型的成果。而且還有更多例子。我不想在這通電話上再占用更多時間，但我認為我們目前仍處於真正可能實現之事的初期階段。

Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey.

Glyn Lawcock，Barrenjoey。

Morning, Brandon. Two quick ones, hopefully. On your commodity attractiveness slide, you've left off uranium. I would have thought it has many of the attributes of copper. Just interested in your thoughts on that as a commodity. Thanks.

早安，Brandon。兩個簡短問題，希望可以。在你的商品吸引力投影片上，你把鈾排除在外。我原本以為它具備許多與銅相同的特質。想請教你對鈾作為一項商品的看法。謝謝。

So first, like the four pillar commodities remain the pillars for BHP, uranium, gold, silver, very attractive byproducts, and that continues to be the core focus. We continue to obviously track the potential attractiveness of other commodities, but at this stage, uranium, as a byproduct, is probably where we still currently see the most value for BHP.

首先，四大支柱商品仍然是必和必拓的支柱；鈾、黃金、白銀作為非常具吸引力的副產品，而這也持續是核心重點。我們當然也會持續追蹤其他商品的潛在吸引力，但在現階段，鈾作為副產品，可能仍是我們目前認為對必和必拓最具價值的定位。

Okay, thanks. And then can I push you a little bit on BMA? I think your words in the core were it doesn't include selling the business. It's got a future inside the portfolio, but I would have thought it would benefit from being standalone. I mean, I think you've said in the past, your predecessor has said we're not invest capital beyond sustaining.

好的，謝謝。那我可以再追問一下BMA嗎？我想你在核心訊息中的用詞是：不包含出售該業務。它在投資組合內有未來，但我原本以為它若獨立運作會更受益。我的意思是，我想你過去曾說過、你的前任也說過，我們不會投入超過維持性資本。

I mean, not selling it, does that include an in-species distribution to shareholders so it could actually stand on its own two feet and maybe flourish? Just interested. Is there a distinction at all? Thanks.

也就是說，不出售它，是否也包含以實物分派（in-species distribution）給股東，讓它能真正自立、也許更能發展？只是想了解一下。這之間有任何區別嗎？謝謝。

So Glenn, I think it comes down to the long-term market expectation for met coal. So if you look at the fundamental industry dynamics, our view is met coal is going to continue to be a very attractive commodity that we want to be in. And BMA and the Bowen Basin is one of the preeminent hard coking coal businesses.

所以，Glenn，我認為這歸根結底取決於對冶金煤（met coal）的長期市場預期。如果你看產業基本面動態，我們的看法是冶金煤將持續是一項我們希望參與、且非常具吸引力的商品。而BMA與鮑恩盆地（Bowen Basin）是最頂尖的硬焦煤業務之一。

We have an operating system in BHP that we can apply across BMA to get the performance up to the level that we deliver the level of returns that make BMA earn its right as part of the BHP portfolio. So our thinking at the moment is absolutely about staying in BMA and pushing the BHP capability across that business to improve its cost performance, to lift its production performance, and to turn it into a real valuable addition to the portfolio.

必和必拓有一套營運系統，我們可以套用到BMA，以把績效提升到能交付相應報酬的水準，讓BMA作為必和必拓投資組合的一部分「名副其實」。因此，我們目前的想法絕對是留在BMA，並把必和必拓的能力導入該業務，以改善成本表現、提升產量表現，並把它打造為投資組合中真正有價值的補強。

And as you have seen, the production has gone up 10% in the last two years. Medium-term guidance will take it another 13% higher. The operational performance of BMA is improving, so we're pleased that it is going in the right direction, stripping is highest in the last five years.

而且如你所見，過去兩年產量已提升10%。中期指引將再提高13%。BMA的營運表現正在改善，所以我們很高興它正朝正確方向前進；剝離量（stripping）也達到過去五年最高。

And from a cost discipline perspective as Brandon was saying, some good results but a lot more to go and that is also very encouraging.

而在成本紀律方面，如Brandon所說，已看到一些不錯的成果，但仍有很大進步空間，這同樣令人鼓舞。

All right, thanks very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Baden Moore, CLSA.

Baden Moore，CLSA。

Just a little bit of a follow-on just around the CAF, I guess, and where it looks like your net debt at 8.7%, 6.3% of assets agreed, so you're nearly a net cash business. It's a lot of funding capacity. I guess I'm wondering, do you still think about that CapEx program in the medium term at around $11 billion as a ceiling of reinvestment, or do you think there's scope now to be looking at accelerating that or do you think that would have to be done by an inorganic process?

我想就CAF再追問一下；看起來你們的淨負債為8.7%，占資產6.3%（同意），所以你們幾乎是一家淨現金公司。這代表很大的融資能力。我想問的是：你們是否仍把中期資本支出計畫約110億美元視為再投資的上限？還是你們認為現在有空間加速？或者你們認為那必須透過非有機方式來完成？

So I'll talk about organic, and I'm sure Brandon will add more to the inorganic and the way he thinks about it.

我先談有機成長，Brandon應該會再補充非有機成長以及他如何看待。

Just on the organic bit, I should say that the CapEx is not something that we defer just because of the funding constraint. In fact, that is the way I think about this is that our projects compete and as they compete with each other because they think that there is only scarce capital to be had, projects become better and better. Now, that has something you can see in Escondida with the throughput of the concentrator being changed, optimized, and we are getting more copper units from that kind of capital to be put in.

就有機成長而言，我要說資本支出並不是因為資金限制才延後。事實上，我的看法是：我們的專案彼此競爭；當它們因為認為可取得的資本稀缺而相互競爭時，專案就會變得越來越好。這點你可以在Escondida看到：我們調整並最佳化選礦廠的處理量，讓投入的資本能帶來更多銅金屬量。

Same thing will happen in Copper South Australia as it continues to go through toll gating, the teams there continue to think what's the best way to accelerate copper unit, if we can.

同樣的情況也會發生在南澳銅業務（Copper South Australia）；隨著它持續通過各個關卡（toll gating），那裡的團隊也會持續思考：如果可以，最佳加速銅金屬量的方式是什麼。

So I would say the constraint is not just dollars but also our ability to execute at the right time and the right kind of scoping and intensities that we are very focused on and the attractiveness of the portfolio is clear from our growth options.

所以我會說，限制不只是資金金額，還包括我們在正確時間、以正確的範疇界定與強度（intensities）來執行的能力；我們對此非常專注，而從我們的成長選項也可清楚看出投資組合的吸引力。

In terms of the balance sheet itself, I'll not apologize for having a strong balance sheet. I think it enables us to do exactly what we want to do, which is resilience through the cycle, be able to do the growth absolutely that we have and for exploration and for any early stage that may be there, but equally to be able to give confidence to our shareholders that through the cycle, this is an attractive business with attractive returns, but on others.

至於資產負債表本身，我不會為擁有強健的資產負債表道歉。我認為它讓我們能做我們真正想做的事：在景氣循環中保持韌性，能夠推動我們確實擁有的成長，也能投入勘探與任何可能存在的早期階段機會；同時也能讓股東有信心：在景氣循環中，這是一門具吸引力、能帶來具吸引力報酬的業務，而不是其他情況。

On M&A, I mean, we could never sit here and categorically rule out M&A, but it's very hard to see value at the moment. And let me just give you some numbers to just give you an example.

關於併購（M&A），我們不可能在這裡斷然排除併購，但目前很難看到價值。我用一些數字舉例說明。

Our organic growth program, anywhere from $16,000 to $30,000 per tonne, depending on the various projects and permutations you look at, versus pure play copper, for example, which should be at $85,000 a tonne and well over a hundred with the takeover premium.

我們的有機成長計畫，每噸成本約在16,000到30,000美元之間，取決於你看哪些專案與各種組合；相較之下，例如純銅標的（pure play copper）應該是每噸85,000美元，而且加上收購溢價後會遠超過10萬美元。

So if you have a look at that, organic is just so attractive that it can deliver really outsized returns for the business. The key thing obviously is we need to be really disciplined at delivering the projects for the economics we set out, and we're putting a significant amount of effort as BHP in into our project organization. We are putting BOS across our project organization. We sort of vending all the learnings from Jansen into how we're going to execute this program of capital we have ahead of us.

所以你若比較一下，有機成長實在太有吸引力了，能為公司帶來非常可觀的超額報酬。關鍵當然是：我們必須非常嚴謹地按我們設定的經濟性去交付專案；必和必拓正投入大量心力強化我們的專案組織。我們正在把BOS導入我們的專案組織。我們也把從Jansen累積的所有經驗教訓，系統性地導入我們接下來要執行的這個資本計畫。

Because by all measures, it's hugely attractive and it translates to very significant growth, particularly in the 2030s at just the time that we expect the structural deficits and copper to be visible.

因為以各項衡量標準來看，這都極具吸引力，並會轉化為非常顯著的成長，特別是在2030年代——正好是我們預期銅的結構性缺口將變得可見的時點。

So if this plan comes together, which we expect will, I think the future in terms of when we bring the copper to market and the value we'll realize from that is going to be very attractive.

因此，如果這個計畫如我們預期般整合到位，我認為未來我們把銅推向市場的時點，以及我們從中實現的價值，都將非常具吸引力。

So just a quick follow-in then, we should thinking that then this payout ratio at these levels as a sign, if we're full on CapEx and we're approaching net cash on those sort of commodity prices, then the upside will be sustainably returned to shareholders. Is that the way to think about it?

那再快速追問一下：我們是否應該把目前這個配息支付率水準視為一個訊號——如果我們資本支出全力投入、而在這類商品價格下又接近淨現金，那麼上行空間將會以可持續的方式回饋給股東？可以這樣理解嗎？

I think the way to think about this is that 50% is the 50%, but the strength of the business and the performance is clearly coming through in the results. And you can see what a cash generative business it is, whatever price deck you put at it. And that should be good news that we have attractive growth that we can invest in and will continue to, and it lends itself for attractive shareholder returns. But I would not, if that's the subtext, try to rub out 50% and make it something else. But hopefully, you'll see our track record, $115 billion returned to shareholders over the last 10 years.

我認為看待這件事的方式是，50%就是50%，但業務的韌性與經營表現已清楚反映在結果之中。而且不論你採用什麼價格假設（price deck），都能看出這是一門現金創造力很強的業務。這應該是個好消息：我們有具吸引力、可投入資本的成長機會，而且也會持續投入，並且有利於帶來具吸引力的股東回報。但如果那是潛台詞的話，我不會試圖把50%抹掉、改成別的數字。不過希望你們能看到我們的往績：過去10年我們已向股東回饋1,150億美元。

And every six months, you have seen us including last this dividend run that our CAF comes into action with real discipline. We will invest in growth which is really attractive. You can see it from the cost capital intensities, and we will be very disciplined in making choices around returns, balance sheet, and growth every six months as well.

而且每隔六個月，你們都看到我們——包括最近這次股利發放——我們的CAF都會以真正的紀律性發揮作用。我們會投資於真正具吸引力的成長。從資本強度（cost capital intensities）就能看得出來；同時我們也會在每六個月就回報、資產負債表與成長之間的取捨上，做出非常有紀律的選擇。

Kate McCutcheon, Bank of America.

Kate McCutcheon，美國銀行。

Hi, morning, Brandon and Vandita. Thank you. We've got some updates on your medium-term outlook today. The medium-term CapEx uplift guide, we've added a year at the backend and increased the FX. Can you just talk through the additional $1 billion versus the prior outlook to take us to that $11 billion?

嗨，早安，Brandon 和 Vandita。謝謝。今天你們更新了中期展望。中期資本支出（CapEx）上調指引，你們在後端多加了一年，並且提高了匯率（FX）假設。能否請你們說明一下，相較於先前展望新增的10億美元，如何使總額達到110億美元？

Yeah, sure, happy to. So think of it this way. Last year, three years were the same as new years. That is $3 billion of higher CapEx.

好的，當然，很樂意說明。可以這樣理解。去年，三個年度的數字與新增的一年相同。也就是資本支出增加了30億美元。

The way to think about this is the $2 billion of that is Jansen 2 increase in CapEx that we announced earlier in half, and FX has gone from $0.68, for example, in Aussie dollar to AUD0.70. So we try to keep the FX quite realistic. So that is at $0.70, for example, and that has contributed to another $1.5 billion of headwind in these numbers.

可以這樣看：其中20億美元是我們先前在上半年已宣布的Jansen 2資本支出增加；另外匯率方面，例如澳幣兌美元從0.68變成0.70。我們會盡量讓匯率假設保持相當務實。因此以0.70為例，這也使這些數字增加了約15億美元的不利影響（headwind）。

However, overall, it's only $3 billion increase because it has got offset by the rest of the capital portfolio being more productive. And this is what I was referring to earlier, our projects and CapEx spend continues to get optimized by our teams across the asset base and that productivity has been the offset for almost $0.5 billion on net basis.

不過整體而言只增加了30億美元，因為其餘資本投資組合的生產力提升抵銷了一部分。這就是我先前提到的：我們的專案與資本支出持續由各資產團隊進行最佳化，而這些生產力提升在淨額基礎上抵銷了將近5億美元。

Okay, that's clear. Thank you. And then staying on the medium term theme. Just on Escondida, so you noted that the optimization there has changed yet again. Can you just talk through the revisions there and what's driven the change to that concentrated size from prior plans? Is it changes to the copper price or is it like more better understanding of the ore body there? Why the changing again? I mean, it's a good outcome, bigger, more copper, but just interested in the changes there.

好的，這很清楚。謝謝。接著延續中期主題。關於Escondida，你們提到那裡的最佳化又再次有所變動。能否請你們說明一下這些修訂，以及是什麼驅動了濃縮廠規模相較於先前計畫的變化？是銅價變動，還是對礦體有了更好的理解？為什麼又再改一次？我的意思是，結果很好——規模更大、銅產量更多——但我想了解這些變動的原因。

Yes, I'll start off and then Brandon, if you come in as well. So as I was saying, before the final investment decision is made, the teams continue to optimize for scope, for design, for cost, for intensity. And what has happened in the new concentrator part, as you can see from there, that we have increased the copper units which can come out of it. The throughput's gone up, but the intensity is at the higher end of what we had guided. It was $16 to $21 per tonne of copper equivalent now it is around $19 to $22 very much in the range of what we had said but the size of the concentrator has been increased because that meant that we can get unlock higher copper units as well.

是的，我先說明，然後Brandon你也可以補充。如我所說，在做出最終投資決策（FID）之前，團隊會持續就範疇、設計、成本與強度（intensity）進行最佳化。而在新濃縮廠（new concentrator）部分，如你所見，我們提高了可產出的銅金屬量（copper units）。處理量（throughput）上升了，但強度落在我們先前指引的較高端。原本是每噸銅當量16到21美元，現在約為19到22美元，仍非常符合我們先前所說的範圍；但濃縮廠規模之所以增加，是因為這代表我們也能釋放（unlock）更高的銅金屬量。

And Kate, it's a function of our confidence in the mining rate we can get out of the mine ultimately. So when you have a look at Escondida, it does suffer at certain production levels from congestion risks.

Kate，這取決於我們對最終可從礦山取得的採礦速率（mining rate）的信心。因此當你看Escondida時，在某些產量水準下確實會受到壅塞風險（congestion risks）的影響。

And as we continue to see declining grades over time, you've got to move significantly more material to hold and then increase production. So the final decision on the sizing of the concentrate is a function of our confidence in terms of what we can get out of the mine.

而且隨著品位（grades）隨時間下降，你必須移動顯著更多的物料，才能維持並進一步提高產量。因此，濃縮廠規模的最終決定，取決於我們對於能從礦山端取得多少產出的信心。

And then second, how their concentrator size translates into value in terms of copper delivery, the ability to get the volume through all of the downstream infrastructure and so on. So the project team continues to do that optimization all the way through the study phases and ultimately we will lock that in at the point of FID.

其次，是濃縮廠規模如何在價值上轉化為銅交付（copper delivery），以及能否讓產量順利通過所有下游基礎設施等。因此專案團隊會在研究階段一路持續做最佳化，最終我們會在FID時把它定案。

Lyndon Fagan, JPMorgan.

Lyndon Fagan，摩根大通。

Thanks. Brandon, just wanted to ask you about Jansen Phase 2. So obviously, that was, I guess, your first big test in terms of capital allocation and $7 billion is a fair chunk of change. Just wondering how you get comfortable with approving that and I guess the market impact of what looks to be another 5% into the global potash market.

謝謝。Brandon，我想問你關於Jansen第二期（Jansen Phase 2）。很明顯，這算是你在資本配置方面的第一個重大考驗，而70億美元是一筆相當可觀的金額。想請問你們如何讓自己有信心核准這項投資，以及市場對於看起來會再增加全球鉀肥（potash）市場5%供給的影響。

And I guess a sort of linked question there is having previously run iron ore, is there any interest to sort of revisit the 330 scope, which would have only added 1% for a lot less CapEx? I've got a follow-up after that too.

另外一個相關問題是：你先前負責鐵礦石業務，是否有興趣重新檢視330方案（330 scope）？那個方案用更少的資本支出就只會增加1%。我之後還有一個追問。

So just coming to Jansen, I think the starting point would be -- we had a look at the balance sheet capacity of BHP and the decision to invest in Jansen importantly wasn't at the expense of any of our copper investment growth. So number one, that was really important to us.

先談Jansen。我認為起點是——我們檢視了BHP的資產負債表承載能力（balance sheet capacity），而且重要的是，投資Jansen的決策並不是以犧牲我們任何銅業成長投資為代價。所以第一點，這對我們非常重要。

Second, then we had a look at all the, a very large number of permutations of what we could or couldn't do with Jansen 2.

第二點，我們檢視了非常多種、非常大量的排列組合（permutations），評估我們對Jansen 2能做或不能做什麼。

And across all those permutations, the option to continue continues to be the value maximizing pathway for BHP. Any decision to delay and defer and then come back later inherently incurs significant cost and also risk because you have to demobilize. You've got to remobilize. There's a whole lot of complexity. You've got to store massive amounts of equipment until you come back to execute the project. And I won't go into any more detail than that. But in principle, we had a look at this from every angle, continuing to invest is definitely the shareholder maximizing case.

在所有這些排列組合之中，選擇繼續推進仍然是對BHP最能創造價值的路徑。任何延後、遞延，之後再回來的決策，本質上都會帶來顯著成本與風險，因為你必須撤場（demobilize）。你還得再進場（remobilize）。其中有大量複雜性。你必須把大量設備存放起來，直到你回來執行專案。我就不再深入細節。但原則上，我們從各個角度都看過了，持續投資絕對是使股東價值最大化的方案。

And then if you step back from the short-term dynamics of Jansen 2 and the market, when you look at the long-term prospects for potash, we still continue to believe that the market is going to grow to over 100 million tonnes. It's a 75 million tonne market today. We've got to bring another 25 million tonnes to market. We want to own 8.5 million tonnes of that additional 25 million tons and Jansen 2 will get us there.

再者，如果你從Jansen 2與市場的短期動態退一步看，從鉀肥的長期前景來看，我們仍然相信市場將成長到超過1億噸。目前市場規模是7,500萬噸。我們必須再把2,500萬噸帶入市場。我們希望在這新增的2,500萬噸中擁有850萬噸的份額，而Jansen 2將使我們達成這一點。

So in the long run, Tier 1 asset, 60, 70 years life, 60% margins. We believe over time this is going to become a very valuable asset for BHP, and we're going to be pleased that we stuck with Janssen 2.

因此從長期來看，這是一項第一級（Tier 1）資產，壽命60到70年，毛利率60%。我們相信隨著時間推進，這將成為BHP非常有價值的資產，而我們也會很高興自己堅持推進Jansen 2。

And just on your market absorption capacity as well, as there is a real ramp up profile for both Jansen 1 and 2. So these tonnes are not coming in in short term. Jansen 1 of course will start to produce middle of next year and then ramps up over a couple of years and then Jansen 2 comes into early next decade and again ramps up over another couple of years. So there is a real ramp profile. And with a market which is growing around 1 million tonne a year, we think the market will be able to absorb it over a period of time.

另外，就你們的市場吸收能力而言，由於 Jansen 1 與 2 都有明確的爬坡增產曲線。因此，這些噸數不會在短期內大量進入市場。Jansen 1 當然會在明年年中開始投產，接著在接下來幾年逐步爬坡；然後 Jansen 2 會在下個十年初期投產，同樣再用幾年時間爬坡。所以確實存在明顯的爬坡曲線。而在市場每年約成長 100 萬噸的情況下，我們認為市場將能在一段時間內吸收這些供給。

Thanks. I guess the other one is just I mean, the BHP share price strength, how would you describe the relative attractiveness of BHP as an investment over, I guess the key diversified peers, like what do you think has driven the rerate? Because I guess that's all anyone's talking about. You're up massively against Rio and the copper pure play. So just interested on the perspective that's coming from within BHP of what is driving that?

謝謝。我想另一個問題是，BHP 股價走強，你會如何形容 BHP 作為投資標的相對於主要多元化同業的吸引力？你認為是什麼驅動了估值重評？因為我想這是大家都在談的。你們相對於力拓以及銅的純標的都大幅領先。所以想了解一下，從 BHP 內部的角度看，究竟是什麼在驅動這件事？

I'm happy to have a go, and then Vandita can come in after me.

我可以先試著回答，之後 Vandita 再補充。

So I think one, our operating credentials. We've been investing in the operating system and our underlying operating discipline, performance, productivity for a number of years now. And we are making genuine and real progress at being able to translate that into real productivity and unit cost and throughput increases over time.

我想第一點是，我們的營運能力與績效可信度。我們多年來一直投資於營運系統，以及底層的營運紀律、績效與生產力。而且我們確實取得了真實且明顯的進展，能夠隨時間把這些轉化為實質的生產力提升、單位成本下降，以及處理量的增加。

And I think you can, once uplifted Escondida, you can see it in how well WAIO was performing. And our plan is to make that more visible across the likes of BMA and so on.

我認為你可以看到，在 Escondida 提升之後，也能從 WAIO 的表現看出來。而我們的計畫是，讓這些成果在 BMA 等業務上也更清楚地呈現。

The second is just the quality of the growth program that we have. When you have a look at what we're bringing to market. We've just spoken about potash, but when you have a look at copper, the quality of the assets that we are building are world-class. The plans we have for Olympic Dam. The long-term potential of Olympic Dam is a million tonnes per annum copper equivalent production and that's 100% BHP.

第二點是我們成長計畫的品質。當你看看我們正在推向市場的項目。我們剛談到鉀肥，但再看銅業務，我們正在建設的資產品質都是世界級。我們對 Olympic Dam 的規劃。Olympic Dam 的長期潛力是每年 100 萬噸的銅當量產量，而且是 100% 屬於 BHP。

Vicuña has the potential to get up to 800,000 tonnes per annum that's not quite an Escondida but pretty close. The new concentrator plan is coming together really, really well and beyond that we still have resolution and.

Vicuña 的潛力可達每年 80 萬噸，雖然還不到 Escondida，但已相當接近。新的選礦廠計畫進展非常、非常順利，除此之外我們還有 Resolution，以及。

There's a range of other sort of early stage options and other concepts that we are pursuing. And I think the market is seeing all of that. They're seeing that we can pay healthy dividends, continue to invest in growth and still maintain balance sheet strength. You put all of that together, I think people can see the real underlying strength and the future potential of BHP. Vandita?

還有一系列其他較早期的選項與概念正在推進。我想市場也看到了這一切。他們看到我們能支付健康的股利、持續投資成長，同時仍維持資產負債表的強度。把這些因素綜合起來，我認為大家能看見 BHP 真正的內在實力與未來潛力。Vandita？

Yeah, the only thing I would add to that is I think our diversified model. And the scale of performance. I think these two together is quite unique. The diversified model as some of the slides show, the kind of cash flow we can generate. I think that is being recognized now and whatever through the cycle. This year EBITDA margin has been 60%. The last 25 years, the average EBITDA margin for BHP has been greater than 50%. For that reliable performance.

是的，我唯一想補充的是，我認為我們的多元化模式。以及績效的規模。我覺得這兩者結合起來相當獨特。如同部分投影片所示，多元化模式讓我們能產生的現金流規模。我想這點現在正被市場認可，而且不論景氣循環如何。今年 EBITDA 利潤率為 60%。過去 25 年，BHP 的平均 EBITDA 利潤率高於 50%。這代表可靠的績效表現。

The second point which is quite important I think is around the growth that Brandon talked about. But I would argue in fact that given we have talked about 3% to 4% growth from here on to middle of 30s that we have. If you look at consensus, I think all of you give us a credit for around 2% consensus growth. So I would say actually there is full recognition of that yet to come in.

第二點我認為也很重要，是 Brandon 談到的成長。但我會主張，鑑於我們談到從現在到 2030 年代中期可達 3% 到 4% 的成長。如果你看市場共識，我想各位給我們的共識成長大約是 2%。所以我會說，其實市場對這點的充分認可還有待反映。

But hopefully, as you can see, as we continue to de-risk our growth plan over next 18 months, Vicuña, Copper South Australia, Escondida, Concentrator, all getting FID stage and get de-risked quickly, that growth hopefully will start to get recognized, which is probably recognized only two thirds right now in our numbers.

但希望你們也看到，隨著我們在未來 18 個月持續降低成長計畫風險，Vicuña、南澳銅業（Copper South Australia）、Escondida、選礦廠等都進入 FID（最終投資決策）階段並快速去風險化，那些成長希望會開始被市場認可；目前在我們的數字裡，大概只反映了三分之二。

And last thing is, again, hopefully the track record shows that we are very disciplined on capital allocation. This has been the hallmark for BHP and we can. Do that in a disciplined way with attractive growth and returns.

最後一點是，再次希望我們的紀錄能顯示，我們在資本配置上非常有紀律。這一直是 BHP 的標誌，我們也能。以有紀律的方式，在具吸引力的成長與報酬下做到這點。

So yes, the share price has gone up, but equally, you would have seen my favorite slide on free cash flow, attributable cash flow at spot is $50 billion over the next five years. That's $2 a share of free cash flow after all growth that we are very excited about as well. So I think it's becoming visible the uniqueness of the performance along with very high-quality growth backed by track record of capital allocation, which is quite decent. And hopefully, there is much more to go given so many, including Copper South Australia, I would argue growth projects are not in many numbers, for example. So in November, when we take you to a site visit, hopefully that can start to get reflected, and there is more to go there.

所以是的，股價上漲了，但同樣地，你們也會看到我最喜歡的那張自由現金流投影片：以即期價格計算，未來五年可歸屬的現金流是 500 億美元。在我們同樣非常興奮的所有成長投資之後，這相當於每股 2 美元的自由現金流。所以我認為，結合獨特的績效表現、非常高品質的成長，以及相當不錯的資本配置紀錄，這種獨特性正變得更可見。而且希望還有更多上行空間，因為很多項目（包括南澳銅業）我會主張在許多數字裡尚未納入，例如。所以在 11 月我們帶各位進行現場參訪時，希望這些能開始反映出來，並且還有更多可期待的空間。

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

Lachlan Shaw，瑞銀（UBS）。

Thank you for allowing me a follow-up. I just had a quick one, hopefully, just on Pampa Norte and Sierra Gorda Spence MOU. Just interested in how you're thinking about what those opportunities there might look like, timelines in terms of the process to identify and agree and perhaps ultimate magnitude of what might be achievable over time. Thank you.

謝謝讓我追問。我有個簡短問題，希望是關於 Pampa Norte 與 Sierra Gorda、Spence 的 MOU（合作備忘錄）。想了解你們如何看待那裡可能的機會樣貌、在流程上識別與達成協議的時間表，以及隨時間推進最終可能達到的規模。謝謝。

Sure, Lachlan. The synergies are quite substantial because you've got these two operations that are literally adjacent to each other.

當然，Lachlan。協同效益相當可觀，因為這兩個營運據點實際上是緊鄰在一起的。

And then when you have a look at the characteristics of each business, Sierra Gorda has oxide ore that can be processed at Spence. Spence has material tailings capital, and Sierra Gorda has available tailings capacity so potential to defer pretty significant capital on that front. There's synergies across water dust like almost everywhere you look at those two businesses there's an opportunity for extracting a better outcome if they work more closely together.

再來，當你看各自業務的特性，Sierra Gorda 有可在 Spence 處理的氧化礦。Spence 在尾礦方面需要大量資本支出，而 Sierra Gorda 有可用的尾礦容量，因此有機會在這方面延後相當可觀的資本支出。在用水、粉塵等各方面都有協同效益——幾乎你看這兩個業務的任何面向，只要更緊密合作，就有機會取得更好的結果。

So the MOU is really the three key parties ultimately coming together to work out how we can extract that synergy. So South32 and KGHM and then the BHP share to be able to go after that. So it's not fully quantified yet. The teams are working on that, but it's quite an exciting opportunity, I think, when you look at what it could do for the performance of an asset like Spence.

所以這份 MOU 的核心，就是三個主要相關方最終一起合作，找出我們如何把這些協同效益釋放出來。也就是 South32、KGHM，以及 BHP 這一方共同推進。目前還沒有完全量化。團隊正在進行相關工作，但我認為這是相當令人振奮的機會，尤其當你看它可能為像 Spence 這樣的資產帶來的績效提升。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's the last question. I'll hand back to Brandon.

這是最後一個問題。我把時間交回給 Brandon。

Okay. Thank you very much. Are we finished?

好的。非常感謝。我們結束了嗎？

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以中斷連線。