必和必拓 (BHP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to BHP's results for the December 2024 half-year investor and analyst teleconference. I advise you that this conference is being recorded today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Henry, Chief Executive Officer, BHP. Please go ahead.

歡迎參加必和必拓 2024 年 12 月半年投資者和分析師電話會議的業績。我建議您今天錄製這次會議。（操作員指示）現在，我想將會議交給必和必拓執行長 Mike Henry。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Well, good morning, good evening to everyone joining the call. Thank you for joining. I'm here with our Chief Financial Officer, Vandita Pant; and Tristan Lovegrove, our Group Investor Relations Officer. And I'm happy to say that we've turned in another strong six months of operational and financial performance driven, of course, by our unwavering focus on operational excellence underpinned by the BHP operating system.

謝謝您，接線生。好吧，各位參加電話會議的各位早安、晚上好。感謝您的加入。我和我們的財務長 Vandita Pant 一起在場；以及我們集團投資者關係官Tristan Lovegrove。我很高興地說，我們又取得了強勁的六個月營運和財務業績，當然，這得益於我們堅定不移地專注於以必和必拓操作系統為基礎的卓越運營。

We've grown production by over 5% in our major commodities over the period, excluding the divestment last year of Blackwater and and Daunia, and the suspension of nickel. We continue to control costs well with close to 4% reduction in unit costs for our major assets, while inflation has been almost a 4% headwind, which we, of course, more than overcame.

除去年對黑水公司和 Daunia 的撤資以及暫停生產鎳礦外，我們在此期間主要商品的產量增加了 5% 以上。我們繼續很好地控製成本，主要資產的單位成本降低了近4％，儘管通貨膨脹率幾乎達到了4％的逆風，但我們當然克服了這一困難。

And this tight cost control contributes to our consistently industry-leaning margins. We're on track to achieve full-year production and cost guidance across each of our commodities. And this underlying operational performance has sported an interim dividend of USD0.50 per share.

嚴格的成本控制有助於我們維持持續產業領先的利潤率。我們預計將實現每種商品的全年產量和成本指引。而憑藉這一基本營運業績，我們已派發每股 0.50 美元的中期股息。

We've also continued to advance our attractive organic growth projects, and there's a specific slide on that in the pack outlining our -- the attractiveness of our projects and copper in Chile. And only a month ago, or a month or so ago, we formed our Argentinian joint venture with Lundin Mining, Vicuña, to develop what we see as one of the world's most significant copper discoveries in decades.

我們也繼續推進我們具有吸引力的有機成長項目，並且在包中有一張特定的幻燈片概述了我們的項目和智利銅的吸引力。就在一個月前，或大約一個月前，我們與 Lundin Mining 成立了阿根廷合資企業 Vicuña，開發我們認為是幾十年來世界上最重要的銅礦之一。

Demand for our products remains strong, notwithstanding the near-term uncertainty and volatility. We are seeing early signs of recovery in China, resilient economic performance in the US, and continued strong growth in India, the fastest growing major economy in the world. Our combination of strategy, portfolio, and operational excellence is a competitive advantage and we believe positions us pretty well. With that operator, I am happy to take the first question.

儘管近期存在不確定性和波動性，但我們產品的需求仍然強勁。我們看到中國經濟出現復甦的初步跡象，美國經濟表現強勁，印度作為全球成長最快的主要經濟體持續保持強勁成長。我們的策略、產品組合和卓越營運相結合，形成了我們的競爭優勢，我們相信這讓我們處於非常有利的位置。我很高興和這位接線生一起回答第一個問題。

Liam Fitzpatrick, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的利亞姆·菲茨帕特里克。

Good morning, or sorry, good evening, Mike and team, any questions for me. Hi there. First one, just on, Waikuna, can you just give us a bit of an update on the timing in terms of when you think you'll be in a position to announce CapEx for the project and potentially when you could make an investment decision on the first phase.

早安，或抱歉，晚上好，麥克和團隊，有什麼問題可以問我。你好呀。首先，Waikuna，您能否向我們介紹一下具體時間，您認為您何時可以宣布專案的資本支出，以及何時可以對第一階段做出投資決定。

Yeah, look, we haven't said that yet, Liam. It's kind of some of the big milestones are coming or our ability to talk about when the milestones will occur is coming. We have committed to coming forward in the first half, both with kind of resource updates but also with an outline of the key milestones, including, as you're referring to when we'd expect to see, potential FID completion of study phases and so on.

是的，看，我們還沒有這麼說，利亞姆。一些重大的里程碑即將到來，或者我們談論里程碑何時發生的能力即將到來。我們致力於在上半年推出資源更新和關鍵里程碑概述，包括您提到的我們預期的 FID 完成研究階段等。

Understood. And then my second one, is just on M&A. There's some comments overnight, I think, where you've said M&A is more difficult. Perhaps if you could just elaborate on that in terms of, the, what's behind that, whether it's valuation or other factors. And I mean, how do you want the market to think about BHP and M&A? Are you still open to opportunities if the right opportunity and timing, fits and comes along?

明白了。我的第二個問題與併購有關。我認為，昨晚有一些評論說，併購更加困難。或許您可以詳細說明一下背後的原因，是估值還是其他因素。我的意思是，您希望市場如何看待必和必拓和併購？如果有合適的機會和時機出現，您是否仍願意接受機會？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I get why the question gets asked, and I, and there's probably others in the queue who will have similar questions, but I really do want us to just kind of get all on the same page on this. As you'd expect, a company of BHP size, of course from time to time we look at at opportunities, but as we've highlighted, given, what the market circumstances, we think it's increasingly challenging to do large global MND for value and at the end of the day we are all about shareholder value. Now at the same time, we've made significant progress and you can see that coming through in the site visit desk indeed in the slide that we've put forward in today's presentation. We've made really significant progress on growing and maturing our portfolio of attractive organic projects in copper and in potash.

我明白為什麼要問這個問題，而且我和隊列中的其他人可能也會有類似的問題，但我真的希望我們能夠就這一點達成共識。正如您所期望的，對於必和必拓這樣規模的公司，我們當然會不時地尋找機會，但正如我們所強調的，考慮到市場情況，我們認為開展大規模全球 MND 越來越具有挑戰性，而歸根結底，我們關心的是股東價值。現在，我們同時取得了重大進展，您可以在我們今天的簡報中提出的幻燈片中看到現場訪問台的進展。我們在擴大和完善銅和鉀肥領域具有吸引力的有機項目組合方面取得了重大進展。

And so we are 100% focused on delivering goals and you can see that that focus coming through in the information that we're providing alongside continuing to deliver strong performance in whale and BMA. So let me say again, we're just we're all clear, our current focus is on our own organic growth. These opportunities that we've outlined, they're continuing to advance well. You asked about eunia, of course, more to come on that, more to come on copper South Australia, as we've, we, we've done with Chile, we bring forward more information with at an appropriate time.

因此，我們 100% 專注於實現目標，您可以從我們提供的資訊中看到，我們專注於繼續在鯨魚和 BMA 方面取得強勁表現。所以讓我再說一遍，我們都清楚，我們目前的重點是我們自身的有機成長。我們所概述的這些機會正在繼續順利進行中。您問到關於尤尼亞的問題，當然，關於這個問題還有更多消息，關於南澳大利亞銅礦還有更多消息，正如我們在智利所做的那樣，我們會在適當的時候提供更多信息。

But you can see that all of these projects are progressing solidly. They're super competitive. If we look at slide 24 on the pack relative to external options, good capital intensity, strong IRRs, and so no surprise that that's where our focus is. And I know, of course, there will continue to be speculation about about M&A, but I really want to get, I've been consistent on this. And I want us all to be on the same page in terms of our focus being on organic growth and progressing these attractive options that we've developed.

但你可以看到，所有這些項目都在穩步進展。他們的競爭力非常強。如果我們看一下與外部選項相關的第 24 張投影片，資本密集度良好，內部報酬率強勁，因此毫不奇怪，這就是我們的重點。當然，我知道關於併購的猜測還會繼續存在，但我真的想得到，我在這一點上一直保持一致。我希望我們都能一致關注有機成長並推進我們已經開發的這些有吸引力的選擇。

Jason Fairclough, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑森·費爾克拉夫（Jason Fairclough）。

But, Mike, thanks for making time for us at the end of the day. I know it's a busy day, so really appreciate these calls as usual. A couple, yeah, a couple questions for me if if I could. First one's just on your medium term CapEx guide. So I think that's slide 29.

但是，邁克，感謝您在一天結束時抽出時間給我們。我知道今天很忙，所以像往常一樣非常感謝這些電話。是的，如果可以的話，我有幾個問題想問一下。第一個只是關於您的中期資本支出指南。我認為那是第 29 張幻燈片。

It looks like you're guiding for $10 billion to $11 billion. Per year. I'm just wondering, does that include the CapEx for the Escondida recapitalization. So the $10.5 billion to $14.4 billion stand still. Is that included in that $10 billion to $11 billion or is it on top of that?

看起來您預計該金額將達到 100 億到 110 億美元。每年。我只是想知道，這是否包括埃斯孔迪達資本重組的資本支出。因此 105 億到 144 億美元規模維持不變。這個金額是包括在 100 億到 110 億美元中的嗎，還是還要加上去？

No, it's included. So what's excluded from the average $11 billion medium-term guidance is any further CapEx and nickel, given that that's a future decision for review in Feb 207. It doesn't include the capital to expand whale to 330 million tonnes per annum other than the study work that we currently have underway. And given that we've only recently closed on Pecuia and yeah, we would also intend to to equity account for for Vicuia. It doesn't include Vicuia either.

不，它包含在內。因此，平均 110 億美元的中期指引不包括任何進一步的資本支出和鎳，因為這是 207 年 2 月審查的未來決定。除了我們目前正在進行的研究工作之外，它還不包括將鯨魚產量擴大到每年 3.3 億噸的資本。鑑於我們最近才剛完成對 Pecuia 的交易，我們還打算對 Vicuia 進行權益核算。它也不包括 Vicuia。

Okay, thanks. Second question then, slide 20, just looking up at your plans to ramp up copper production, in South Australia. I guess my, big picture question, given the underperformance of those assets over the last 20 years, what gives you confidence that you can actually deliver that kind of growth this time?

好的，謝謝。第二個問題，第 20 頁，只是看一下您在南澳大利亞提高銅產量的計劃。我想，我的大問題是，考慮到過去 20 年這些資產的表現不佳，是什麼讓您有信心這次能夠實現這種成長？

Okay, I, I'm, and maybe I'm getting too far ahead of ourselves here, but I'm hoping that people can see a much improved performance at Olympic Dam in recent years whilst acknowledging, the there was a long period of time where, relative to a name plate of 220 plus, I think on average we were producing about 150, 160.

好的，我，我，也許我在這裡說得太超前了，但我希望人們能夠看到奧林匹克壩近年來的表現有了很大的提高，同時也要承認，有很長一段時間，相對於 220 多個的銘牌，我認為平均我們生產了大約 150、160 個。

But that's been turned around through our investment in asset integrity, building up tech capability in the asset, and that was the foundation upon which then we could start more credibly looking at unlocking future growth through the consolidation of the of Carapati, a prominent Hill Olympic Dam, and then with the potential development development of of oak dam. So first and foremost, more reliable underlying production and cost control over the probably the recent three or four years.

但是，透過我們對資產完整性的投資、在資產上進行技術能力建設，這種情況已經得到扭轉，這是我們可以開始更有信心地考慮透過鞏固卡拉帕蒂水壩、著名的奧林匹克山壩以及橡樹壩的潛在開發來釋放未來成長潛力的基礎。因此，首先最重要的是，最近三、四年內基礎生產和成本控制更加可靠。

And then there's the optionality, I was there first week of January, spent time with the team on the ground, and you just get, no matter which way you look, you see, synergies to be unlocked and optionality left, right, and center there. And so the game has shifted from when we were looking solely at an expansion of Olympic Dam.

然後還有可選性，我在一月的第一周就到了那裡，與當地的團隊一起度過了一段時間，無論你從哪個角度看，你都會看到，協同效應被釋放，而可選性就在那裡。因此，當我們僅僅關注奧林匹克壩的擴建時，遊戲已經發生了變化。

There's many more levers available to be pulled now given the the multiple assets or mines that we have. And of course the synergy onlock will also contribute to the economics of any expansion or A smelter expansion, smelter and refinery expansion at Olympic Dam. So returns boosted by synergies, greater optionality. We're pretty optimistic about what's, the potential there to be unlocked in the coming 5 to 10 years.

鑑於我們擁有的多種資產或礦山，現在可以利用的槓桿要多得多。當然，協同效應也將有助於奧林匹克壩任何擴建或冶煉廠擴建、冶煉廠和煉油廠擴建的經濟效益。因此，協同效應和更大的選擇性將提高回報率。我們對未來 5 到 10 年內可釋放的潛力非常樂觀。

Amos Fletcher, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿莫斯·弗萊徹。

Yeah, morning, Mike. Thanks for the opportunity. I just wanted to ask your current thinking on the way 330 expansion, in particular, whether you see the market needing an extra 25 million tonnes of iron ore given progress being made in Guinea and China demands seemingly peaked in 2020.

是的，早上好，麥克。謝謝你的機會。我只是想問一下您目前對 330 擴建的看法，特別是考慮到幾內亞正在取得進展並且中國的需求似乎在 2020 年達到頂峰，您是否認為市場需要額外的 2500 萬噸鐵礦石。

So let me start by saying that, we've got a very high performing business there, lowest cost, good margins, better margins in the competition. There's actually Kind of, I don't know, two parts or two angles to take on the questions that you've asked. Do we believe that the market needs more tonnes and other 25 million tonnes in the market? The answer is no, and we've been clear on that because we see Chinese steel demand plateauing, then ultimately moving into decline because of the the increase in scrap pig iron declines even more quickly. So we're pretty confident we'll see a contracting iron ore market as we move towards the end of this decade.

首先我要說的是，我們在那裡的業務表現非常出色，成本最低，利潤率較高，在競爭中利潤率更高。實際上，我不知道，有兩種部分或兩個角度來回答你提出的問題。我們是否相信市場需要更多的噸位以及另外 2500 萬噸？答案是否定的，我們對此很清楚，因為我們看到中國的鋼鐵需求處於穩定狀態，然後最終進入下降趨勢，因為廢生鐵的增加速度下降得更快。因此，我們非常有信心，隨著本世紀末的到來，鐵礦石市場將會萎縮。

Having said, so the question is really whether against that backdrop, which is the backdrop that we've assumed for a decade now, against that backdrop, are there still attractive returns to be generated by, a further 25 million tonnes from the best performing asset in the world after having taken into account the impact on the market of adding those tonnes. So it's not like we would just assume a static price outlook. We would say if we bring these tonnes on, what's the impact on the market?

話雖如此，真正的問題是，在這種背景下，也就是我們十年來一直假設的背景下，在考慮到增加這些噸位對市場的影響後，從世界上表現最好的資產中再增加 2500 萬噸是否仍然能夠產生有吸引力的回報。因此，我們不能僅僅假設價格前景是靜態的。我們想說，如果引進這些噸位，會對市場產生什麼影響？

On the rest of the portfolio and does it still make sense or not, which is why we've been careful to talk about these as studies and options rather than saying that it's a definitive expansion. There is uncertainty, of course, still in iron ore demand, in pricing, which I think most would say has held up better than than some had anticipated.

對於投資組合的其餘部分來說，這是否仍然有意義，這就是為什麼我們一直謹慎地將它們作為研究和選擇來討論，而不是說這是一個明確的擴張。當然，鐵礦石需求和定價仍然存在不確定性，我認為大多數人會說鐵礦石價格比某些人預期的要好。

And so we do see that uncertainty where there is still market opportunity and where we've got the best performing business in the industry, it's incumbent on us to make sure that we understand what the options are. And then we can make a determination as to whether we wish to trigger those or not based on what we see in the iron ore market, but also as we, stack those projects up against alternative opportunities to deploy capital in the BHP, or sorry, in the other BHP businesses.

因此，我們確實看到了不確定性，哪裡仍然存在市場機會，哪裡是我們擁有業內最佳表現業務的地方，我們有責任確保我們了解有哪些選擇。然後，我們可以根據鐵礦石市場的狀況來決定是否要觸發這些項目，同時，我們也將這些項目與在必和必拓或抱歉，其他必和必拓業務中部署資本的其他機會進行對比。

Okay, got it. Thanks. And then second question was just around nickel and can you just elaborate your thinking on, whether that asset. Will be put up for sale in the near term just given you, notable one of your peers has managed to sell their nickel business for a, pretty impressive number this morning. So there is a market for these type of assets.

好的，明白了。謝謝。第二個問題是關於鎳的，您能否詳細說明您對該資產的看法。將在近期出售，值得注意的是，您的一位同行今天上午已成功以相當可觀的價格出售了他們的鎳業務。因此，此類資產是有市場的。

Thanks. Okay, so look, firstly, I'll say that the process towards moving it into temporary suspension has gone smoothly. We've done everything that we said we would do by way of. Redeploying people and so on, we are continuing to spend money on with the anticipation of reviewing that decision as to whether to restart in early 2027. I do want to make the point though that the money that we're spending is not just to keep the asset warm. In fact, if we ever ultimately moved into a closure scenario, two-thirds of what we're spending would go towards that, we would have gone towards that anyways.

謝謝。好的，首先，我要說的是，暫停的過程進展順利。我們已經完成了我們說過要做的一切事情。重新部署人員等，我們將繼續投入資金，以期在 2027 年初審查是否重啟該決定。但我確實想指出的是，我們花的錢不僅僅是為了保住資產。事實上，如果我們最終進入關閉方案，我們所花費的三分之二將用於此，無論如何我們都會這樣做。

But we are optimistic that fortunes for the nickel markets still have the potential to improve towards the back end of this decade, but we're not yet confident enough to say that we, for certain we would be able to, that things would be attractive enough to reopen the business in due course. That's why we said early 2027 and hopefully we'll have a better view than on market market circumstances. Vanita, is there anything you wanted to add on this one?

但我們樂觀地認為，到本世紀末，鎳市場的命運仍然有改善的潛力，但我們還沒有足夠的信心說我們一定能夠做到，情況將有足夠的吸引力在適當的時候重新開放業務。這就是為什麼我們說 2027 年初，希望我們能比市場情況有更好的看法。Vanita，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's it.

不，我想就是這樣。

Dominic O'Kane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的多明尼克‧奧凱恩 (Dominic O’Kane)。

Hi, Mike. I just had a question around, the capital structure and obviously, you focused in the presentation on moving towards the top end of your $5 billion to $15 billion net debt target range. Could you just maybe give us, your thinking about whether that is still the most appropriate metric for BHP as you move into what is clearly, potential for a higher growth phase over the next 5 to 15 years? Do you think you're maybe boxing yourself into a corner with such a kind of a limited net debt range? Would you, would you consider moving to a different, parameter for guidance around capital structure? Thank you.

你好，麥克。我剛才有一個關於資本結構的問題，顯然，您在演講中重點關注的是向 50 億美元至 150 億美元的淨債務目標範圍的上限邁進。您能否告訴我們，在未來 5 到 15 年內，隨著必和必拓明顯有可能進入更高成長階段，這是否仍是最合適的指標？您是否認為，淨債務範圍如此有限，可能會讓您陷入困境？您是否會考慮採用不同的參數來指導資本結構？謝謝。

Okay, so the, I think there's different parts to the response on this. And you want to, there's no perfect metric. We think that the firm, a firm range for net debt is the best metric, and then I'll ask you to talk about that in a second because I know you've got kind of strong views on this.

好的，所以，我認為對此有不同的回應。你想，沒有完美的衡量標準。我們認為，淨債務的固定範圍是最好的指標，然後我會請您稍後談論這個問題，因為我知道您對此有強烈的看法。

I do want to say though that there is benefit in having constraints. In place in terms of the capital allocation framework, and I've seen the great benefit that's brought in terms of ensuring a more disciplined balance between cash being returned to shareholders versus being reinvested in the business and ensuring that there is very strong competition for capital between projects who are all buying. To be to be funded, and that's resulted in better capital efficiency, more reliably executed projects with better returns than the alternative scenario where we don't have constraints in place.

但我確實想說，有限制也是有好處的。就資本配置框架而言，我已經看到了它帶來的巨大好處，即確保在返還給股東的現金與再投資於業務之間的更嚴格的平衡，並確保所有購買項目之間存在非常激烈的資本競爭。獲得資金，從而實現更好的資本效率，更可靠地執行項目，並獲得比沒有限制的替代方案更好的回報。

The other point I would make is that, our objective here is to ensure that we've got a robust, balance sheet and robust business at all points in the cycle. So even under a prolonged down cycle scenario. That we've, we know that we, we've got a solid, balance sheet. And so, and the best way that we've had of trying to depict that is to put in place a clear net debt, range and, rather than looking at something like a leverage ratio or or gearing or something, but then you know maybe if you can elaborate.

我想說的另一點是，我們的目標是確保在整個週期的各個階段，我們都擁有穩健的資產負債表和強勁的業務。因此，即使在長期的下行週期情況下。我們知道，我們擁有穩健的資產負債表。因此，我們嘗試描述這一點的最佳方法是建立明確的淨債務範圍，而不是查看槓桿率或負債率之類的東西，但也許你可以詳細說明一下。

Yeah. I agree with what Mike just said and just on leverage and gearing, which are alternate measures for balance sheet, but we do think that net debt has a simplicity and nowhere to hide kind of a view. There is of course a bit leverage on.

是的。我同意麥克剛才所說的關於槓桿和負債比率的問題，它們是資產負債表的替代衡量標準，但我們確實認為淨債務具有簡單性和無處可藏的觀點。當然，還有一點槓桿作用。

Can get a little more procyclical in terms of the behavior given it can seem quite low, but equally gearing can be quite back, historical because of the historical cost on the balance sheet of the assets. So there isn't a perfect matric really, but from the perspective of, as you've seen in the slide, we do watch all of these and whichever way you look. I think we would agree that we are very comfortable that the balance sheet that we have currently is very conservative and very strong for all kinds of cycle related ups and downs, and we have lots of levers to manage it in case we want to be outside of that range, but I wouldn't say that would mean that we use another matrix instead of a net dead range.

鑑於其行為似乎很低，可能會變得更加順週期，但同樣，由於資產負債表上的歷史成本，負債比率可能會相當高，具有歷史意義。因此，實際上並不存在完美的矩陣，但是從您在幻燈片中看到的角度來看，無論您以何種方式看，我們都會觀察所有這些。我想我們都同意，我們目前的資產負債表非常保守，對於各種週期相關的起伏都非常強勁，我們對此感到非常滿意，並且我們有很多槓桿來管理它，以防我們想超出這個範圍，但我不會說這意味著我們使用另一個矩陣而不是淨死區。

Thank you, very clear.

謝謝，非常清楚。

Alexander Pearce, BMO.

亞歷山大·皮爾斯，BMO。

Good evening. So my question, around, Jansen, and, basically, I think West Shore flagged a couple of times last year that the upgrades, it needs to make to the port were presenting, some challenges from a cost perspective. So I wondered, are there any concerns from you, that there could be some time slippage associated with that project, or indeed any cost implications from BHP?

晚安.所以我的問題是圍繞詹森以及基本上，我認為西岸去年曾幾次提出，港口需要進行的升級從成本角度來看帶來了一些挑戰。所以我想知道，您是否擔心該專案可能會出現時間延誤，或者必和必拓 (BHP) 確實會產生任何成本影響？

So no concerns in the sense that we, we've got a contract in place with West Shore where costs from a BHP perspective are well defined. And in terms of potential for slippage, there's appropriate buffers built in place between when the infrastructure will be in place and and and when we need to ship. But I think, on balance in the world of capital projects, that project continues to progress well.

所以不用擔心，因為我們已經與 West Shore 簽訂了合同，從 BHP 的角度來看成本是明確的。就可能的延誤而言，我們在基礎設施到位和我們需要發貨之間建立了適當的緩衝。但我認為，總體而言，在資本項目領域，該專案繼續進展順利。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Myles Allsop, UBS.

瑞銀的邁爾斯·阿爾索普（Myles Allsop）

Okay, thanks. First question, just thinking about iron ore medium term, so you sound reasonably cautious. How low do you think iron ore can go as we look over the next 5 to 10 years?

好的，謝謝。第一個問題，只是考慮鐵礦石的中期前景，所以你聽起來相當謹慎。您認為未來5到10年內鐵礦石價格會跌到多少？

Look, well, let me start by saying this a bench of probably circa 180 million tonnes of between USD80 and USD100 per tonne. So even against the backdrop of a market that can decline over time, there's a lot to be pushed through to get the prices that are below that.

嗯，首先我要說的是，這個礦場的產量大概有 1.8 億噸，每噸價格在 80 到 100 美元之間。因此，即使在市場可能隨著時間的推移而下滑的背景下，仍有很多努力可以實現低於這一水平的價格。

Of course, it's an imperfect science, and so within what we can control, we've said our safest bet is to make sure that we are at the very low end of the cost curve. And that we improve the average quality of our product offering because through doing those two things we'll gain the greatest resilience around margins. And so in a world that becomes much more competitive, or where the competition heats up in that market in the coming years, we will be best placed under a range of different scenarios.

當然，這是一門不完美的科學，所以在我們能夠控制的範圍內，最安全的做法就是確保我們處於成本曲線的最低端。並且我們提高了產品的平均質量，因為透過做到這兩點，我們將獲得最大的利潤彈性。因此，在一個競爭更加激烈的世界裡，或者在未來幾年市場競爭更加激烈的情況下，我們將在一系列不同的情境下處於最佳位置。

So, if Simando displaces that 120 million tonnes, we could go below $80. Is that the way you're thinking?

因此，如果西曼多取代那 1.2 億噸，價格可能會跌破 80 美元。您是這麼想的嗎？

It was 10 million tonnes, but yes, it was coming into the market. Of course that's going to have an effect on the market, but we've been forecasting for some time. That those volumes would be coming into the market. So it's not a surprise for us.

雖然數量是 1000 萬噸，但確實已經進入市場了。當然，這會對市場產生影響，但我們已經預測了一段時間了。這些數量將會進入市場。所以這對我們來說並不意外。

Our views around Chinese steel industry, fresh supply coming to the market. It's what underpinned the strategy that we laid out for the whale business back in 2017, which was go from being the third best business in the world or the third high lowest cost business to being the best, do that sustainably and at the same time improve the quality of the average or the average quality of our product fleet, and we did that through triggering the Southbank investment which has given us higher FE content and higher lump content than otherwise would have been the case.

我們對中國鋼鐵業的看法是，新的供應將進入市場。這就是我們在 2017 年為鯨魚業務制定的策略的基礎，即從全球第三大業務或成本第三低的業務發展成為最好的業務，並以可持續的方式做到這一點，同時提高我們產品船隊的平均質量，我們通過觸發 Southbank 投資來做到這一點，這使我們的 FE 含量和塊狀含量高於的情況。

Yeah, and then maybe just on Samarco, could you give us a quick update on the UK class action, maybe Australia, Netherlands, are you seeing, kind of any of the claimants migrate to the Brazilian settlements? Are they starting to fade in terms of, the momentum, and when will we get the next sort of updates around those two, contingent liabilities?

是的，然後也許只是關於 Samarco，您能否向我們簡要介紹一下英國集體訴訟的最新情況，也許是澳大利亞、荷蘭，您是否看到有任何索賠人遷移到巴西定居點？它們的勢頭是否開始減弱？

Well, look, so our position in respect of the UK case remains exactly as it was previously, which is the best recourse or the most appropriate recourse for claimants is in the Brazilian system. In the period since the UK case was launched, of course, there's an agreement that's been reached with the public authorities in Brazil that is very comprehensive.

好吧，看，我們對英國案件的立場與以前完全一樣，即對索賠人來說最好的補救措施或最合適的補救措施是在巴西體系中。當然，自從英國提起訴訟以來，已經與巴西的公共當局達成了非常全面的協議。

Provides for a range of claimants builds upon the good work that's been done to date and provides a lot of clarity and certainty both for Brazilian stakeholders as well as for shareholders. Now you asked the question as to are we seeing some claimants in the UK case migrate to Brazil? Probably two points to make on that. One is there's been over an overlap in in in a certain portion of the claimants in the first instance.

為一系列索賠人提供的服務建立在迄今為止所做的良好工作的基礎上，並為巴西利益相關者和股東提供了巨大的清晰度和確定性。現在您問的問題是，我們是否看到英國案件中的一些原告移居到巴西？關於這一點大概需要指出兩點。一是首先，部分索賠人之間有重疊。

But yes, we have seen some claimants availing themselves of the recourse they have under the Brazilian system, as you would expect because the Brazilian system gives them more certainty and faster payment than under the UK case which we continue to defend in its totality.

但是的，我們看到一些索賠人利用了他們在巴西體系下所擁有的追索權，正如你所預料的那樣，因為與我們繼續全額辯護的英國案件相比，巴西體系給予他們更多的確定性和更快的付款。

And the liability is not yet established as (inaudible) given it is still in contingent liability or trial case.

由於該責任仍處於或有責任或審判案件中，因此尚未確定（聽不清楚）。

Richard Hatch, Berenberg.

理查德·哈奇，貝倫貝格。

Yeah, good morning, team, thanks very much for the call. Just want to ask you, a bit on the coal cost, please. So, you say that coal costs are kind of flat half on half, but actually they're up sort of 12% sort of, sorry.

是的，早安，團隊，非常感謝您的來電。我只是想問您關於煤炭成本的問題。所以，你說煤炭成本一半持平，但實際上卻上漲了 12%，抱歉。

Flat year on year, up 12% half on half. So I just wonder whether you can just give us a bit of an update on what you're doing to TRY and pull those costs down on the Australian coal business, please.

與去年同期持平，較上半年成長12%。所以我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您為降低澳洲煤炭業務成本所採取的措施。

Yeah, sure, and I can give you more details offline as well, but when we are comparing cost, we are neutralizing for the April sale of Blackwater and Daunia so that it becomes like for like, and you can see with the volume adjusted the unit costs are flat as a I mean.

是的，當然，我也可以離線向您提供更多詳細信息，但是當我們比較成本時，我們會將 4 月份 Blackwater 和 Daunia 的銷售情況進行中和，以便情況變得相同，並且您可以看到，調整數量後，單位成本是持平的。

What I would add is that, Richard, it's it's obviously we had the long wall and the maintenance in the first half, so there's no long wall move in the in the second half and the maintenance is is much lower. We'd also expect a higher volume in the second half that it would go back into the rain.

我想補充的是，理查德，很明顯我們在上半場有長牆和維護，所以下半場沒有長牆移動，維護成本要低得多。我們也預計下半年的降雨量會更高。

Okay, understood. But I mean, I guess, still, if you compare it versus a few years ago, this business was running some $100 costs, right, and now it's running at $120 cost or $130 cost. So, is that $110 guidance fair or below $110 guidance fair or do you notfeel that's right?

好的，明白了。但我的意思是，如果與幾年前相比，這項業務的成本約為 100 美元，而現在的成本為 120 美元或 130 美元。那麼，110 美元的指導價是否合理，或者低於 110 美元的指導價是否合理，或者您認為不正確？

Now, the [110] guidance in the medium term, Richard, relates to three things. One is volume guidance. It has to be read along with the volume guidance, which is 43 million tonnes to 45 million tonnes. So there is a volume dilution.

理查德，現在[110]中期指導涉及三件事。一是成交量引導。該數字必須與產量指導值（4300 萬噸至 4500 萬噸）一起解讀。因此存在體積稀釋。

Secondly, these are the costs which are coming through, not because of new investment, but because of the underlying shift in both preparation. As well as higher yield, which comes through and by that time we would have rebuilt the inventory that is in the supply chain which has been low, as and which is what the effort is. So combining these three things along with a real focus on labor productivity and equipment productivity, which actually has been going well, relates to that medium term guidance quite a lot.

其次，這些成本的產生，不是因為新的投資，而是因為雙方準備工作都發生了根本性的轉變。到那時，我們將獲得更高的收益，並重建供應鏈中一直處於低位的庫存，這就是我們所付出的努力。因此，將這三件事結合起來，並真正關注勞動生產力和設備生產率，實際上進展順利，與中期指導有很大關係。

Bob Brackett, Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司 (Bernstein Research) 的鮑伯‧布拉克特 (Bob Brackett)。

Good evening. Returning to Viunia, if I think about the Bridgy bill and your ability to qualify under that process.

晚安.回到維尼亞，如果我考慮一下 Bridgy 法案以及你根據該程序獲得資格的能力。

Is that nice to have or is that necessary to have? And you mentioned a two-year timeline from July 24. How does the one year option for extension fit in? Is it at your discretion or is that at the government's discretion?

有這個是好事嗎？您提到了從 7 月 24 日開始的兩年時間表。一年的延期選擇權如何適用？這是由你決定還是由政府決定？

Maybe you can answer the question of Vendys around the extension, but in the Ricci bill is clearly attractive and so we haven't, what we said is in the 1st 6 months we've come up with some milestones around the project, updated resource, milestones around study phases, FID, and so on.

也許您可以回答 Vendys 有關延期的問題，但 Ricci 法案顯然很有吸引力，所以我們沒有，我們說的是，在前 6 個月我們圍繞項目制定了一些里程碑，更新了資源，圍繞研究階段的里程碑，FID 等等。

We, I think we all understand that the bill is a real demonstration of the Argentinian government's efforts. To attract capital investment to the country and we will actively be, looking at whether that presents an opportunity for us, but I would, bring you back to the fact we made our initial investment in Fio back in early 2022, and it's because we see this resource as having significant long-term potential as we start to put the finer brushstrokes on what a development plan may look like. We'll make the call then as to whether to pursue the opportunity presented by the. Yeah, and just on.

我想我們都明白，這項法案是阿根廷政府努力的真實展現。為了吸引資本投資到該國，我們將積極研究這是否為我們帶來了機會，但我要告訴大家的是，我們在 2022 年初對 Fio 進行了初始投資，這是因為我們認為這種資源具有巨大的長期潛力，因為我們開始對開發計劃進行更精細的描繪。然後，我們會決定是否要把握由此帶來的機會。是的，就這樣。

On, there are quite a few limbs are relevant for us, including, as you mentioned, the window for application for projects which needs to go in within that two year window and then an implementation from there on. So we are very. Comfortable and working through, of course, early days on how to look at that, but overall as a package, it's a positive package not just in fiscal terms but also attractiveness and the support for a project like Leunia, which is there at federal and state level there.

關於這一點，有很多部分與我們相關，包括正如您所提到的，專案申請窗口需要在兩年內進入，然後從那時起實施。所以我們非常。當然，我們還在努力研究如何看待這個問題，但總的來說，這是一個積極的方案，不僅在財政方面，而且在吸引力和對 Leunia 等項目的支持方面，該項目得到了聯邦和州一級的支持。

The follow up would be around the phase development strategy. So you've ring-fenced Philad del Sol and Jose Maria. If you did something like a small oxide, project, and would that be sort of a foot in the door and then you could grow that into a world scale project, or would you have to go back under the Ridgy build? Do you have to define the entire scope of what the development would look like?

後續工作將圍繞階段發展策略進行。因此，您已經將 Philad del Sol 和 Jose Maria 隔離。如果您做了類似小型氧化物項目的事情，那麼這是否是一種敲門磚，然後您可以將其發展為世界級的項目，還是您必須回到 Ridgy 建設下？您是否必須定義整個開發的範疇？

Still the subject of further consideration, Bob, so it's, And again we're still early on having just closed on Fio, working together with the Lundians on mapping out what that development path may look like and of course looking at what the the proposal would be that we would take into any RGI application.

鮑勃，這仍然是一個需要進一步考慮的問題，而且我們仍然處於早期階段，剛剛完成了 Fio 的談判，正在與 Lundians 人合作，規劃出這條發展道路，當然，我們也在研究我們會在任何 RGI 應用程序中採納的提案是什麼。

Matt Green, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的馬特‧格林 (Matt Green)。

Hey, Mike, I have a couple of questions. One on CapEx, one on Jansen, on CapEx, look, it's, seeing it's quite encouraging to see some of the FX tailwinds and unit costs, but, can you just comment on how the weaker FX is translating into your into your CapEx, and then just on the $11 billion sort of ceiling, I guess we're starting to see your equity counted, investments potentially going up around resolution Vuna. Some infrastructure around Jansen potentially and in the future. So how should we be thinking about investing cash outflow of the company, I guess on a medium term outlook.

嘿，麥克，我有幾個問題。一個是關於資本支出，一個是關於 Jansen，關於資本支出，看，看到一些外匯順風和單位成本是相當令人鼓舞的，但是，你能否評論一下較弱的外匯如何影響你的資本支出，然後只是關於 110 億美元的上限，我想我們開始看到你的股權計算，投資可能會在 Vuna 解決方案附近上升。未來，Jansen 周圍可能會有一些基礎設施。那麼，從中期角度來看，我們該如何考慮投資公司的現金流出呢？

Okay, so, maybe you can answer the question on FX, impact on CapEx. I just want to start though, Matt, with your comment. You referred to the $11 billion as a ceiling. I want to be clear that that is our average guidance on CapEx. It's not a target and it's not a ceiling, we, we've noted that we've got the ability to flex upwards or downwards on that 11 billion. Depending on the opportunities that are available to us and depending upon, cash infos into the company, your point on on resolution, Viunha and Tamina is taken and those are the equity accounted. I do note that the 11 billion doesn't back out, the joint venture partner shares out of something like like Scondida. So there's kind of, we have to look at it from both sides of the equation. Vanda FX.

好的，也許您可以回答有關外匯對資本支出的影響的問題。馬特，我只是想從你的評論開始。您提到 110 億美元是上限。我想明確指出的是，這是我們對資本支出的平均指引值。這不是一個目標，也不是一個上限，我們已經注意到，我們有能力在這 110 億上進行向上或向下的調整。這取決於我們擁有的機會，也取決於公司現金資訊、您對解決方案的看法，Viunha 和 Tamina 被採納，這些都是權益會計。我確實注意到，這 110 億美元並沒有退出，合資夥伴從 Scondida 之類的公司中分得一杯羹。因此我們必須從等式的兩邊來看這個問題。萬達 FX。

On the FX yeah, sure. So the Australian dollar hasn't really moved materially to make an impact on the copper side, but on the CapEx side, but CNP has, so Chilean peso would be a benefit and that will, we are seeing that come through in some of the projects.

在 FX 上，是的，當然。因此，澳元實際上並沒有發生實質變動，對銅方面沒有產生影響，但對資本支出方面產生了影響，而 CNP 卻產生了影響，因此智利比索將受益，而且我們看到這一點在一些項目中得到了體現。

That's great. Thanks very much. And then just on Jansen, just give us an update on how the underground development is progressing, are you tracking to plan and I guess where are the risks from here.

那太棒了。非常感謝。然後關於詹森，請向我們介紹地下開發的進展情況，您是否按照計劃進行，這裡的風險是什麼。

Yeah, so tracking ahead of plan, you'll recall that we moved the first production estimate forward from 2027 to late 2026. That remains the case. Project Vandi, I think, about 67 63% complete now. So well on track for that late 2026 window.

是的，因此，按照計劃，您會記得我們將第一個生產估計從 2027 年提前到 2026 年底。情況依然如此。我認為，Vandi 專案現在已完成約 67% 63%。因此，2026 年末的計畫進展順利。

Ephrem Ravi, Citigroup.

花旗集團的 Ephrem Ravi。

Thank you. So first question on the smelter and refinery expansion at Olympic Dam, the first phase FID by FY27, what could be the order of magnitude of cap for that? And is it very simplistically to reduce the uranium levels and take more ore from those minerals assets and by when, would that, expansion be ready assuming it's approved? Are we talking by 2030 or beyond that?

謝謝。因此，第一階段是關於奧林匹克壩冶煉廠和精煉廠擴建工程，第一階段的 FID 將在 2027 財政年度完成，其上限數量級是多少？降低鈾含量並從這些礦產資產中開採更多礦石是否非常簡單？我們談的是 2030 年還是更晚？

Okay, so, in order, the CapEx, we haven't provided information yet on capital intensity. We will in due course, as we've done with the Chilean projects, but we want to do it once we've got kind of a next level of confidence around it. I would say that at at a macro level, the economics of that project are going to be supported by the synergies to be unlocked, which you pointed to in the second part of your question around the Oz minerals ores

好的，那麼，按照資本支出的順序，我們還沒有提供有關資本密集度的資訊。我們將在適當的時候採取行動，就像我們在智利計畫中所做的那樣，但我們希望在對其有了更高程度的信心後再採取行動。我想說，從宏觀層面來看，該計畫的經濟效益將得到待釋放的協同效應的支持，這一點你在問題的第二部分關於 Oz 礦物礦石的問題中提到過。

Now, there is a choice for us to make in bringing the oil minerals or through the the newly upgraded and expanded smelter, and that is as to whether we were to expand uranium processing capacity in parallel with that or not. And the current indication is that the economics of that may be challenged. However, there's still a significant uranium benefit to us in that the, prominent hill and Capaina ors currently incur a uranium penalty that we would remove.

現在，我們要做出選擇，是透過石油礦物還是透過新升級擴建的冶煉廠來運輸，那就是是否要同時擴大鈾加工能力。目前的跡象表明，其經濟性可能面臨挑戰。但是，鈾資源對我們來說仍然具有顯著的優勢，因為突出的山丘和卡帕伊納山脈目前遭受鈾資源懲罰，而我們將取消這種懲罰。

So the synergies here, a removal of the uranium penalty, reduction in transport distance are two big drivers of that, and that will support the economics of the SRE project. Final part of your question was around timing. You're right, we're looking at FID in circa 2027, and then the capacity would be online in right at the start of the 2030 just beyond that.

因此，這裡的協同效應、取消鈾懲罰、減少運輸距離是兩大驅動力，這將支持 SRE 計畫的經濟效益。你的問題的最後部分是關於時間的。你說得對，我們預計 FID 會在 2027 年左右，然後產能會在 2030 年初上線。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Operator, I believe that's the last question on the line.

接線員，我相信這是電話裡的最後一個問題了。

There are no further questions on the phone at this stage.

目前電話裡沒有其他問題。

Okay, so I just want to thank everybody for joining this this evening. I know it's early morning for for many of you. I hope that you can see, coming through in the results, another very reliable set of operational results, strong financial results, and increasing, things to be positive about in terms of the growth optionality in the portfolio, both in potash and in copper, which is going to underpin attractive shareholder returns and value growth over the decades to come. Thank you.

好的，我只想感謝大家今晚參加這個活動。我知道對你們許多人來說現在還是早晨。我希望大家能夠從業績中看到，公司將取得另一組非常可靠的營運績效、強勁的財務業績，以及在鉀肥和銅礦投資組合的成長選擇性方面日益積極的因素，這將支撐未來幾十年具有吸引力的股東回報和價值成長。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your interest. You may now all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的關注。現在你們都可以斷開連結了。