Bunge Global SA (BG) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Bunge Global SA fourth quarter 2024 earnings release and conference calls.

大家好，歡迎參加邦吉全球 SA 2024 年第四季財報發布和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that today's event is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的活動正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ruth Ann Wisner. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給 Ruth Ann Wisner。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Thank you for joining us this morning for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bungy.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well.

謝謝您，接線生。感謝您今天上午參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想讓你們知道，我們有幻燈片來配合我們的討論。這些可以在我們網站 bungy.com 的投資者中心的「活動和演示」下找到。我們的非公認會計準則指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的對帳表也發佈在我們的網站上。

I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions.

我想引導您看第二張投影片，並提醒您今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述反映了邦吉對未來事件、財務業績和行業狀況的當前看法。

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation, and we encourage you to review these factors.

這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響。邦吉在提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中所述結果大不相同的因素的更多信息，我們鼓勵您審查這些因素。

On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer, and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.

參加今天早上電話會議的有邦吉執行長 Greg Heckman 和財務長 John Neppl。我現在將電話轉給格雷格。

Thank you, Ruth Anne, and good morning, everyone. Let's start by thanking the team for their continued hard work and commitment in 2024. Make good progress on a number of significant growth projects while also advancing our work to build an even stronger Bunge.

謝謝你，露絲安妮，大家早安。首先，讓我們感謝團隊在 2024 年的持續努力和承諾。在一些重大成長項目上取得良好進展的同時，推動我們建立更強大邦吉的工作。

Our team is prepared for the close of our business combination with Viterra. Teams of both companies have put in countless hours of planning to ensure smooth integration so that our customers at both ends of the value chain, farmers, and consumers see good continuity of service.

我們的團隊已為完成與 Viterra 的業務合併做好了準備。兩家公司的團隊都投入了無數的時間進行規劃，以確保順利整合，從而讓我們價值鏈兩端的客戶、農民和消費者都能看到良好的服務連續性。

And we expect to close the transaction soon. You likely heard we received a regulatory approval from the Canadian government last month. Continue to engage in constructive conversations with the regulatory authorities in China while we work through the final stages of the asset divestment process in Europe.

我們期望很快完成交易。您可能聽說我們上個月獲得了加拿大政府的監管批准。在我們完成歐洲資產剝離過程的最後階段時，繼續與中國監管機構進行建設性對話。

We're also in the late stage of the regulatory process for our acquisition of CJ Selecta. Leading manufacturer and exporter of soy protein concentrate in Brazil. We expect that transaction to close in the near future. In the coming weeks, we expect to close our announced partnership with Repsol to develop new opportunities to help meet the growing demand for lower carbon intensity feedstocks for the production of renewable fuels.

我們對 CJ Selecta 的收購也已進入監理流程的後期階段。巴西領先的大豆濃縮蛋白製造商和出口商。我們預計該交易將在不久的將來完成。在接下來的幾週內，我們預計將結束與 Repsol 宣布的合作夥伴關係，以開發新的機會，幫助滿足生產再生燃料對低碳強度原料日益增長的需求。

This alliance is the first of its kind in Europe. It furthers our long-term strategy to create alternative paths towards the decarbonization of agriculture and the role we can play in the liquid fuel supply chain. In October, we announced the completion of the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture in Brazil to BP.

該聯盟是歐洲首個此類聯盟。它進一步推進了我們的長期策略，即創造農業脫碳的替代途徑以及我們在液體燃料供應鏈中所能發揮的作用。十月份，我們宣布完成將位於巴西的糖和生質能源合資企業出售給 BP。

As we've discussed, it streamlines our business and allowed us to expand our stock repurchases and authorization. Planning for these large initiatives takes teamwork and cross-functional collaboration. Team's done a great job of running our day-to-day business, while also working on the strategic growth initiatives.

正如我們所討論的，它簡化了我們的業務並允許我們擴大股票回購和授權。規劃這些大型計畫需要團隊合作和跨職能協作。團隊在經營日常業務方面做得非常出色，同時也致力於策略性成長計畫。

In addition, we continue to return capital to shareholders through our share repurchases and our regular dividend. Repurchase a total of $1.1 billion of shares in 2024 and share buybacks will continue to be an important part of our capital allocation strategy.

此外，我們也持續透過股票回購和定期股利向股東返還資本。2024年共回購11億美元股票，股票回購將持續成為我們資本配置策略的重要組成部分。

Shifting to our operating results, we didn't close the year as expected. Particular operating conditions have been challenging in South America, and they continue to be in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, we're seeing things stabilize and expect to see significant improvement in the region in 2025.

談到我們的經營業績，我們未能以預期結束這一財年。南美洲的經營環境尤其充滿挑戰，這種情況在第四季仍將持續。幸運的是，我們看到情況正在穩定下來，預計 2025 年該地區將出現顯著改善。

After the Viterra transaction closes, we expect to provide an outlook for the combined company. In the meantime, we are providing an outlook for the current Bunge business. Forward visibility is limited, particularly at this point, given the increased geopolitical uncertainty.

Viterra 交易結束後，我們預計將對合併後的公司做出展望。同時，我們正在對邦吉目前的業務做出展望。未來的可見性有限，特別是考慮到地緣政治不確定性的增加。

Based on what we see in the markets in the forward curves today, currently expect full year adjusted EPS of approximately $7.75. For that, I'll turn over to John for a deeper look at our financials and outlook. John?

根據我們今天在遠期曲線市場上看到的情況，目前預計全年調整後每股收益約為 7.75 美元。為此，我將請約翰深入了解我們的財務狀況和前景。約翰？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Greg mentioned, the fourth quarter came in below our expectations. This is particularly true in South America, where market environment has been challenging all year. Impacting industry margins throughout the oil state and grain value chains to include those of our joint ventures.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早安。格雷格提到，第四季的表現低於我們的預期。南美洲尤其如此，那裡的市場環境全年都充滿挑戰。影響整個石油州和穀物價值鏈的行業利潤，包括我們的合資企業的利潤。

We also felt the impact of a declining margin environment in North America from biofuel great uncertainty. Now let's turn to the earnings highlights on slide 5. Reported 4th quarter earnings per share was $4.36 compared to $4.18 in the fourth quarter of 2023.

我們也感受到了北美利潤環境因生物燃料的巨大不確定性而下降的影響。現在讓我們來看看第 5 張投影片上的獲利亮點。報告的第四季每股收益為 4.36 美元，而 2023 年第四季為 4.18 美元。

Order results included a favorable mark to market timing difference of $1.25 per share, and net positive impact of $0.98 per share. Notable items are rarely related to the gain on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture, partially offset by transaction and integration costs associated with Viterra.

訂單結果包括每股 1.25 美元的有利市價時間差異和每股 0.98 美元的淨正面影響。值得注意的項目很少與我們出售糖和生質能源合資企業的收益有關，部分被與 Viterra 相關的交易和整合成本所抵銷。

Just in the EPS was $2.13 in the fourth quarter, $3.70 in the prior year. Adjusted core segment earnings before interest and taxes or EBIT $548 million in the corner. Inclusive of Ukraine business interruption insurance recovery, $52 million versus EBIT of $881 million last year.

僅第四季度的每股收益就為 2.13 美元，去年同期的每股收益為 3.70 美元。調整後核心部門息稅前利潤（EBIT）為 5.48 億美元。包括烏克蘭業務中斷保險賠償在內，息稅前利潤為 5,200 萬美元，而去年的息稅前利潤為 8.81 億美元。

In processing, our so results in Europe and Asia will offset by lower results in North America and South America, as well as in European soft seeds. Higher merchandizing results were driven by improved performance in financial services, and freight, and global grains, offsetting lower results in global.

在加工方面，我們在歐洲和亞洲的表現將被北美和南美以及歐洲軟種子的較低表現所抵銷。商品銷售業績上漲是由於金融服務、貨運和全球穀物業務表現改善所致，抵銷了全球業務業績下滑的影響。

Refined specialty oils, more results in North America were primarily due to the combination of a more balanced supply and demand environment and certainly related to US biofuel policy.

精煉特種油，北美的業績更多主要是由於更平衡的供需環境，並且肯定與美國生物燃料政策有關。

Both in Europe, South America, and Asia were also down due to lower margins. The variances were much narrower. In milling, higher results in North America are more than offset by lower results in South America. The corporate and other, increase in corporate expenses was primarily driven by lower performance-based compensation, various project-related expenses in the prior year. Or other results related to our captive insurance and securitization programs, Bunge Ventures.

由於利潤率較低，歐洲、南美洲和亞洲的銷售額均出現下滑。差異要小得多。在銑削方面，北美的較高業績被南美的較低業績所抵消。公司及其他公司費用的增加主要是由於上一年績效薪酬和各種項目相關費用的減少。或與我們的自保保險和證券化計劃、邦吉創投公司相關的其他結果。

All results in non-core reflect only one month of income from the sugar joint venture was on the sale. In interest expense of $62 million was down in the quarter compared to last year, reflecting lower net debt levels and interest rates.

所有非核心業績僅反映出糖業合資企業一個月的銷售收入。本季的利息支出為 6,200 萬美元，與去年同期相比有所下降，反映出淨債務水準和利率有所下降。

Increasing income tax expense for both the quarter and full year, primarily due to lower pre-tax income and earnings mix. Testing for notable items and mark to market timing differences, full year adjusted effective income tax rate was approximately 23% of the current prior year.

本季和全年的所得稅費用增加，主要由於稅前收入和獲利結構下降。經過值得注意的項目和以市價計價的時間差異的測試，全年調整後有效所得稅率約為上年的 23%。

We'll turn to slide 6 where you can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT trends the past 5 years. Your own performance period reflects a combination of favorable market environment and excellent execution by our team.

我們將轉到第 6 張投影片，您可以在其中看到過去 5 年的調整後每股盈餘和息稅前利潤趨勢。您自己的業績期體現了良好的市場環境和我們團隊出色的執行力。

Recent trend indicates more balanced supply and demand, translating into less volatility and lower. Slide 7 details our capital allocation. For the full year we generated approximately $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations.

最近的趨勢顯示供需更加平衡，波動性更小，價格更低。投影片 7 詳細介紹了我們的資本配置。全年我們從營運中產生了約 17 億美元的調整後資金。

After allocating $451 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental health, and safety, and approximately $1.2 billion of discretionary cash flow available.

在分配 4.51 億美元用於維持資本支出（包括維護、環境健康和安全）以及約 12 億美元的可自由支配現金流後。

Of this amount, we paid $378 million in dividends. That's $925 million in growth and productivity related CapEx, about two-thirds of which related to our growth pipeline of large multi-year investments, and we purchased $1.1 billion of money shares.

其中，我們支付了 3.78 億美元的股息。這是 9.25 億美元的成長和生產力相關的資本支出，其中約三分之二與我們多年期大型投資的成長管道有關，我們購買了價值 11 億美元的貨幣股票。

$500 million of those repurchases were from the $728 million in cash proceeds received to date for the sale of our Sugar JV. This resulted in the use of $444 million of previously retained cash flow.

其中 5 億美元回購資金來自我們迄今為止出售糖業合資企業所獲得的 7.28 億美元現金收益。這導致使用了 4.44 億美元先前保留的現金流。

Going to slide 8. We finished 2024 with total CapEx spend of approximately $1.4 billion which is in line with our last forecast. Ahead to 2025, we expect CapEx of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion reflecting the continued investment in our ongoing multi-year greenfield projects.

轉到投影片 8。到 2024 年，我們的總資本支出約為 14 億美元，這與我們上次的預測一致。展望 2025 年，我們預計資本支出將達到 15 億至 17 億美元，這反映了我們對正在進行的多年綠地計畫的持續投資。

This ranges down from the preliminary estimate of $1.92 billion we provided you previously, reflecting our decision to not pursue some projects, as well as timing changes related to existing projects. We continue to expect turning to a baseline run rate on CapEx level during the second half of 2026.

該金額低於我們先前向您提供的 19.2 億美元的初步估計數，反映了我們決定不再進行某些項目，以及與現有項目相關的時間表變更。我們繼續預期 2026 年下半年資本支出水準將轉向基準運轉率。

Moving to slide 9. At year end readily marketable inventories, our RMI exceeded our net debt by approximately $2.3 billion. Adjusted leverage ratio reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.6 times at the end of the point. Slide 10 highlights our liquidity position.

移至幻燈片 9。在年底易於銷售的庫存中，我們的 RMI 超過淨債務約 23 億美元。調整後的槓桿率反映出我們的調整後淨債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率在期末為 0.6 倍。投影片 10 重點介紹了我們的流動性狀況。

At year end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $8.7 billion of which were unused at the end of the year, providing us ample liquidity to manage our ongoing capital needs. In addition, we had a cash balance of approximately $3.3 billion accumulated in large part, as a result of a $2 billion of cash proceeds from the US public debt offering would have been closed in September.

截至年底，我們已承諾的信貸額度約為 87 億美元，其中年底尚未使用，為我們提供了充足的流動性來管理我們持續的資本需求。此外，我們累積了約 33 億美元的現金餘額，很大一部分是由於 9 月美國公開債務發行所獲得的 20 億美元現金收益。

All proceeds will be used to fund the cash portion of the Viterra transaction. In addition, $6 billion term loan commitment secured last year, used to refinance Viterra's outstanding bank debt on close of the transaction.

所有收益將用於資助 Viterra 交易的現金部分。此外，去年獲得的 60 億美元定期貸款承諾將用於在交易完成後為 Viterra 的未償還銀行債務進行再融資。

Please turn to slide 11. The year adjusted ROIC was 1.4%, ROIC was 9.7%. Adjusting for construction and progress, large multi-year projects not yet operating, and the excess cash on our balance sheet for the Viterra closing, adjusted ROIC would increase by approximately 2 percentage points and ROIC by approximately 1%.

請翻到第 11 張投影片。年度調整後的ROIC為1.4％，ROIC為9.7％。經過對建造和進度、尚未營運的大型多年期專案以及 Viterra 收盤時資產負債表上的多餘現金進行調整後，調整後的 ROIC 將增加約 2 個百分點，ROIC 將增加約 1%。

While returns have declined recent highs, it remained well above our adjusted weighted average cost of capital of 7.7%. Moving to slide 12, in the year we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion the cash flow yield of 11.1% compared to our cost of equity of 8.2%. Please turn to slide 13, 2025 outlook.

儘管回報率近期有所下降，但仍遠高於我們調整後的 7.7% 加權平均資本成本。轉到第 12 張投影片，今年我們產生的可自由支配現金流約為 12 億美元，現金流收益率為 11.1%，而股權成本為 8.2%。請翻到第 13 張投影片，2025 年展望。

Greg mentioned in his remarks, taking into account the current and macro environment, we expect full year 2025 ingested EPS to be approximately $7.75.

Greg 在評論中提到，考慮到當前宏觀環境，我們預計 2025 年全年每股收益約為 7.75 美元。

Forecast excludes the impact of announced acquisitions expected to be closed during the year. In agribusiness, full-year results are forecasted to be down from last year.

預測不包括預計於年內完成的已宣布收購的影響。在農業綜合企業方面，預計全年業績將低於去年。

Law results in processing where improved performance in South America is expected to be more than offset by North American and European substances. Results in merchandizing are forecasted to be down slightly from last year. Fine specialty oils, full-year results are expected to be down from last year, merely driven by a more balanced supply and demand environment in North America.

法律的結果是，預計南美洲性能的提高將被北美和歐洲的物質所抵消。預計商品銷售業績將比去年略有下降。精細特種油，預計全年業績將較去年下降，僅受北美更加平衡的供需環境的影響。

Corporate another, full-year results are expected to be up from last year. Additionally, the company expects it falling for 2025. Just an annual effective tax rate of 21% to 25%. The expense in the range of $250 million to $280 million. Capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, depreciation and amortization of approximately $490 million.

另外，預計全年業績將比去年有所成長。此外，該公司預計 2025 年這一數字將會下降。每年的實際稅率僅21%至25%。費用在2.5億美元到2.8億美元之間。資本支出在 15 億美元至 17 億美元之間，折舊和攤提約為 4.9 億美元。

Yeah, with that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.

是的，接下來我將把話題轉回給 Greg，請他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, John. So before we go to Q&A, I just wanted to offer a few closing thoughts. Today's complicated global environment. We're confident that the work we've done and continue to do to improve our business and operations, positions us well to deliver on our critical mission, connecting farmers to consumers to deliver essential food feed and fuel to the world.

謝謝，約翰。因此，在我們進入問答環節之前，我只想說幾點結束語。當今複雜的全球環境。我們相信，我們為改善業務和營運所做的以及將繼續做的工作，使我們能夠很好地完成我們的關鍵使命，即把農民與消費者聯繫起來，向世界提供必需的食品、飼料和燃料。

We continue to see the benefits of our global operating model, our portfolio optimization work, or financial discipline, as we navigate the cycles inherent in our industry. With our culture of continuous improvement, our team continues to strengthen the business, both with the M&A work we talked about at the beginning of the call, and our ongoing growth initiatives.

在我們駕馭產業固有週期的過程中，我們不斷看到我們的全球營運模式、投資組合優化工作或財務紀律帶來的好處。憑藉持續改進的文化，我們的團隊不斷加強業務，包括我們在電話會議開始時談到的併購工作，以及我們正在進行的成長計畫。

Constructions going well on our large-scale projects that will not only bring us new capabilities, but also allow us to more efficiently and sustainably serve our customers. Improve productivity is at the heart of investments that dozens of our existing facilities around the world.

我們的大型專案建立進展順利，這不僅為我們帶來新的能力，也使我們能夠更有效率、更永續地服務客戶。提高生產力是我們對全球數十家現有工廠進行投資的核心。

Strategic use of capital, along with the implementation of the Bunge production system, enabling our teams to set new performance records each quarter. We're also pleased with our performance on our sustainability priorities.

策略性地使用資本，加上邦吉生產系統的實施，使我們的團隊每季都能創下新的績效記錄。我們對自身在永續發展重點上的表現也感到滿意。

Took a major step forward in November, we became the first global commodity exporter capable of 100% traceability and monitoring both our direct and indirect soy purchases, Brazil's priority regions. Proud to reach this major milestone in our 10-year journey to achieve traceable and verifiable supply chains.

11 月我們邁出了重要一步，成為第一家能夠實現 100% 可追溯性並監控直接和間接大豆採購（巴西的重點地區）的全球商品出口商。我們很榮幸在實現可追溯和可驗證供應鏈的十年歷程中達到這一重要里程碑。

If we think about our business in 2025 and beyond. Regardless of how the macro environment evolves, confident that our team has the experience, skills, and agility to navigate the changes and drive performance.

如果我們考慮 2025 年及以後的業務。無論宏觀環境如何發展，我們相信我們的團隊擁有豐富的經驗、技能和敏捷性來應對變化並提高績效。

With the addition of Viterra, we'll be an even stronger Bunge. Further diversification, assets, geographies, and crops, providing us with even more capabilities and optionality to help address the world's food security needs.

隨著Viterra的加入，邦吉集團將會變得更加強大。進一步多樣化，資產、地理和作物，為我們提供更多能力和選擇，以幫助解決世界糧食安全需求。

And with that, turn to Q&A.

現在，進入問答階段。

(Operator Instructions) Manav Gupta, UBS.

(操作員指示) Manav Gupta，瑞銀。

Good morning, Greg. Good morning, John. My first question relates to the 2025 guidance. What are the puts and takes, if you could give a little more detail? And the reason for the question is that historically, you start at a number and as the execution is better than expected, the number rises.

早安，格雷格。早安，約翰。我的第一個問題與 2025 年指導方針有關。您能否提供更詳細的信息，看看其中的利弊？提出這個問題的原因在於，從歷史上看，你從一個數字開始，隨著執行情況好於預期，這個數字就會上升。

So I'm trying to understand what kind of conservatism is built into the guidance. And my follow-up, I'll ask it upfront also is, how are you accounting for the fact that there is policy uncertainty of 45Z. So how are you accounting for that in your annual guidance? Thank you.

因此，我試圖了解該指導方針中包含了何種保守主義。我的後續問題是，我也會提前問，您如何解釋 45Z 的政策不確定性。那麼您在年度指導中是如何考慮這一點的呢？謝謝。

Okay. Let me start and John can follow up. So as we look at '25, we definitely are in an environment that has less visibility than normal with the trade disruptions and some of the uncertainty around US biofuels. But what we did factor in is that really global oil supply and demand is pretty constructive, right?

好的。讓我先開始，然後約翰可以跟進。因此，當我們展望25年時，我們確實處於一個比正常情況下更不透明的環境，受到貿易中斷和美國生物燃料的一些不確定性的影響。但我們確實考慮到，全球石油供需確實相當樂觀，對嗎？

We've got less palm oil and less soft seed competing with soy. So soy is very competitive right now, and it's taking a bigger share of global flows. And we are seeing more global biofuel demand when you look at it in total outside the US.

與大豆競爭的棕櫚油和軟籽越來越少。因此，大豆目前競爭力非常強，在全球貿易中佔據的份額越來越大。從美國以外的整體來看，我們發現全球生物燃料需求正在增加。

Soybean meal demand has been very good, and that's driven, of course, by the profitability in the animal protein. There's also less wheat with a little bit tighter supply and demand, so less wheat competing with soybean meal and less competition from the mid proteins.

豆粕的需求一直很好，這當然是由動物性蛋白質的獲利能力所推動的。由於小麥的供應和需求略微緊張，小麥產量也減少了，因此與豆粕競爭的小麥產量減少了，來自中間蛋白的競爭也減少了。

And then in South America, really expect improvement in Brazil. The industry in '24 fought the logistical commitments and take-or-pay, which really create a lot of demand on supply, which kind of hurt margins across the platform for the industry. Those are exited in '24 and won't be fighting that in '25.

在南美，我們確實期待巴西的進步。1924 年，該行業反對物流承諾和照付不議原則，這確實對供應產生了很大的需求，損害了整個行業平台的利潤率。那些在 24 年就退出了的，在 25 年不會再與之抗爭。

And then, of course, Argentina, we've seen the export tax reductions in that economy continues to stabilize. So that will -- that should drive a change in farmer behavior and farmer selling. Now we do expect lower margins in North America and Europe. And of course, as I believe John said, Viterra, CJ Selecta, and share repurchases are not factored into '25.

當然，我們看到阿根廷的出口稅減少，該國經濟持續保持穩定。因此，這將推動農民行為和農民銷售的改變。現在我們確實預期北美和歐洲的利潤率會下降。當然，我相信約翰說的是，Viterra、CJ Selecta 和股票回購並沒有被計入 25 年的因素。

And Manav, I might just add there that relative to 45Z and uncertainty around policy, we've got -- we're making the assumption today that US crush margin is lower, as Greg mentioned, but also we expect refining premiums to be more challenged in '25.

Manav，我還要補充一點，相對於 45Z 和政策不確定性，我們今天假設美國的壓榨利潤率較低，正如 Greg 所提到的那樣，但我們預計煉油溢價在 25 年將面臨更大挑戰。

Obviously, if we get more clarity around policy and you get the right demand for soybean oil relative to renewable fuels, that should be helpful for refining premiums. But we're making assumption they'll be down certainly.

顯然，如果我們的政策更加明朗，並且相對於可再生燃料，對大豆油的需求正確，這應該有助於提高煉油溢價。但我們假設它們肯定會下降。

Thank you for the detailed response. I'll turn it over.

感謝您的詳細回覆。我把它翻過來。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯，希瑟瓊斯研究。

Thanks for the question. I also want to start with (technical difficulty) so given the fact that South America should be better next year as far as on take-or-pay and Argentina, I'm just wondering what is the offset that you all are expecting that to be softer in '25?

謝謝你的提問。我也想從（技術難度）開始，考慮到明年南美在照付不議和阿根廷方面的情況會更好，我只是想知道，你們都預計 25 年的情況會更疲軟，抵消因素是什麼？

You were breaking up a little bit during the beginning, Heather, if I got the question right, it was, as we see South America better, what are the offsets globally?

希瑟，如果我沒有誤解這個問題的話，你一開始就分手了，問題是，當我們更了解南美洲時，全球的抵銷是多少？

Yes, in merchandising specifically.

是的，特別是在商品銷售方面。

In merchandising specifically. Yeah. I think if you look and John can address even versus the model, merchandising is in pretty conservative, and I think it reflects what we're seeing is a more balanced supply and demand situation globally really across grains and oilseeds. And as we've talked about, that is always the toughest to be able to predict from a timing and size of the magnitude of the opportunities.

具體來說，就是在商品銷售方面。是的。我認為，如果您看一下，約翰就可以解決，即使與模型相比，商品銷售也相當保守，我認為這反映了我們所看到的全球穀物和油籽的供需狀況更加平衡。正如我們所討論的，從機會的時間和規模來預測機會的強度總是最困難的。

It would be hard to imagine that the situation will be more complex than we're dealing with right now, and we expect things to kind of get more clear in the second half. But the watch out on merchandising versus the opportunity really is it does make it tougher for our suppliers, the farmers as well as the consumers to plan in these uncertain times. So they may draw back and be a little bit more spot here in the first quarter -- first couple of quarters.

很難想像情況會比我們現在處理的更加複雜，我們預期下半年情況會變得更加明朗。但與機會相比，對商品銷售的警覺性確實使我們的供應商、農民以及消費者在這些不確定的時期制定計劃變得更加困難。因此，他們可能會在第一季（前幾季）退縮，並且表現會更加突出。

And I'll maybe just add, Heather, that the biggest delta year-over-year right now is in ocean freight and really driven primarily by lower flat price now versus a year ago, but those markets can get very dynamic depending on trade flows. As government policy gets more clear and trade flows could be impacted, that certainly may provide us some opportunity on the ocean freight side.

我可能只想補充一點，希瑟，目前同比最大的增幅是在海運方面，這主要受當前與一年前相比較低的固定價格推動，但這些市場可能會根據貿易流量而變得非常活躍。隨著政府政策變得更加清晰，貿易流動可能會受到影響，這肯定會為我們的海運帶來一些機會。

I think the one supply and demand probably that's most to be watched probably is corn. That one is probably the tightest. And so if we did have some weather problems in corn production. That's one of the ones that could contribute to merchandising as we need to work to solve some problems globally.

我認為最值得關注的供需問題是玉米。那一個可能是最緊的。如果我們的玉米生產確實遇到了一些天氣問題。這是可以對商品銷售做出貢獻的因素之一，因為我們需要努力解決全球範圍內的一些問題。

Okay. And then I don't know how much I can speak to this, but I just wanted to ask broadly, your thinking on the Viterra acquisition and all, given the 45 -- the GREET model makes canola basically uncompetitive coming into the US or at least not eligible at this time for a credit and just the potential for export tax for -- tariffs on Canada.

好的。然後我不知道我能談多少，但我只是想廣泛地問一下，您對 Viterra 收購的看法，鑑於 45——GREET 模型使得油菜籽在進入美國時基本上不具競爭力，或者至少目前沒有資格獲得信貸，而且有可能對加拿大徵收出口稅——關稅。

Just like broadly, how are you thinking about that acquisition now versus maybe a year ago? And are you may be able to offset some of those new negatives with greater synergies or greater share repo? Or just how are you all thinking about those puts and takes?

整體來說，與一年前相比，您現在對此次收購有何看法？您是否可以透過更大的綜效或更多的股票回購來抵消一些新的負面因素？或者你們是如何看待這些投入和產出的？

I'd say that, one, it hasn't all played out exactly what -- how the biofuels policy is going to work out. But remember, canola is very favored by the food industry as well as the canola meal has been very favored by the dairy industry. So that market will continue to go to a lot of the traditional demand.

我想說，第一，生物燃料政策究竟會如何發揮作用還沒有完全清楚。但請記住，菜籽油深受食品業的青睞，菜籽粕也深受乳製品業的青睞。因此，市場將繼續滿足大量的傳統需求。

As you can imagine, obviously, we're watching what happens between the US and Canada because that could impact canola flows in the near term. But nothing lasts forever. And this is a long-term game. And so clearly, we'll be poised to deal with whatever we need to deal with in the near term.

你可以想像，顯然，我們正在關注美國和加拿大之間的動向，因為這可能會在短期內影響油菜籽的流通。但沒有什麼東西能夠永恆。這是一場長期的遊戲。因此顯然，我們將做好準備應對短期內需要處理的所有問題。

But I think long term, policy gets more clear, one thing is the market will adjust to that. And I think with the combination with Viterra, we should be in a better position globally to deal with whatever disruption might be created from government policy or trade flows changes.

但我認為從長遠來看，政策會變得更加明確，市場將會隨之適應。我認為，透過與 Viterra 的合併，我們應該能夠在全球範圍內處於更好的位置，以應對政府政策或貿易流變化可能造成的任何干擾。

Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.

好的，完美。太感謝了。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

花旗銀行的湯姆·帕爾默。

Hi. Good morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to maybe just start off kind of framing the earnings guidance for '25 relative to the $850 million mid-cycle outlook. I know it's a few years, it was laid out in '22. I appreciate interest expense is higher, but share count is lower. So I guess just looking at like the segment profit pieces, could we maybe walk through expectations relative to that mid-cycle outlook?

你好。早安，感謝您的提問。我可能只是想根據 8.5 億美元的中期前景來製定 25 年的獲利預測。我知道這需要幾年的時間，它是在'22 年制定的。我知道利息支出較高，但股票數量較低。因此，我想，只要看一下分部利潤部分，我們是否就可以了解相對於中期週期前景的預期？

Sure, Tom. I'll take that. And Greg, you can jump in if any other thoughts. But just a reminder, we put that together. Our most recent refresh was in middle of 2022, which, of course, seems like an eternity from now.

當然，湯姆。我接受。Greg，如果你還有其他想法，可以加入討論。但只是提醒一下，我們把它們放在一起了。我們最近一次更新是在 2022 年中期，當然，這似乎還很遠。

But overall, how we're thinking about it on the processing side, margins are pretty steady versus what we had assumed back in the mid-cycle. But volume is down based on our original model, really driven by three factors. One is Ukraine has obviously been impacted with the war and so pretty much lower volume levels there than originally anticipated. We sold our Russia business since that point in time, and then we're doing less tolling in South America. So volume is down in processing, but margin is fairly steady.

但整體而言，從加工方面來看，利潤率與我們在中期週期所假設的相比相當穩定。但根據我們最初的模型，交易量是下降的，實際上是由三個因素造成的。一是烏克蘭顯然受到了戰爭的影響，因此那裡的音量比最初預期的要低得多。從那時起，我們就出售了俄羅斯業務，並且減少了在南美的加工業務。因此，加工量下降，但利潤卻相當穩定。

On the merchandising side, really assumed lower volatility going forward. We had modeled about $100 million a quarter in our baseline. And looking at next year, we're thinking somewhere in the $50 million to $75 million per quarter range. So obviously, that can change pretty quickly depending on what happens in the markets, but that's how we have it in.

在商品銷售方面，確實假設未來波動性會降低。我們的基準模型是每季約 1 億美元。展望明年，我們預計每季的營收將在 5,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元之間。顯然，這可能會根據市場狀況而迅速改變，但這就是我們的做法。

Net interest expense higher, and really driven by interest rates and more debt, and I'll get to the offsets in a second. And then on the sugar side, of course, we sold sugar, and we had that built into the model. But offsetting the higher interest and sugar impact is more share buybacks.

淨利息支出較高，這實際上是受利率和更多債務的推動，我馬上就會談到抵銷措施。在糖方面，我們當然銷售糖，並且我們已經將其納入模型中。但抵消更高的利息和糖的影響的是更多的股票回購。

And we had originally in the model just assumed debt pay down with any excess cash. But of course, we've allocated a lot of that to share repurchases. So the repurchases have principally offset the loss of sugar earnings and the higher interest cost.

我們最初在模型中只是假設用多餘的現金來償還債務。但當然，我們已分配其中很大一部分用於股票回購。因此，回購基本上抵消了糖收益的損失和更高的利息成本。

And then we do have some higher costs than what we had anticipated at the time, really driven by growth initiatives and adding some capability, investing some money in technology really to drive efficiency in the future. And frankly, inflation over the last couple of years is higher than what we expected in our original model.

然後，我們的成本確實比當時預期的要高，這實際上是受到成長計劃和增加一些能力的推動，在技術上投入一些資金確實是為了提高未來的效率。坦白說，過去幾年的通貨膨脹率高於我們最初模型中的預期。

And then finally, on the favorable side to all that is on RSO, refined and specialty oil side, margins have been better than what we would have modeled in terms of at the time, assuming more of a baseline. On the specialty side, we performed better, but also refining premiums have stayed better than what we had anticipated in the mid-cycle. So that kind of wraps up the overall.

最後，從 RSO、精煉油和特種油方面的所有有利因素來看，利潤率一直比我們當時模擬的要好，假設更多的是基線。在專業方面，我們的表現更好，而且煉油溢價也保持得比我們在中期預期的要好。所以總的來說就是這樣的。

Probably just for mentioning, John mentioned the calendarization of '25 right now. So first half, second half at 40%, 60%. And then Q1 versus Q2 on the first half would be 40%, 60%.

可能只是為了提一下，約翰現在提到了 '25 的日曆化。所以上半年和下半年分別為40%和60%。那麼上半年第一季與第二季的比率將分別為 40%、60%。

Thank you. That was actually my next question. Maybe I'll just sneak one in quickly. Just on Viterra, I guess, what's kind of the plan once it closes in terms of communication? Is the idea to update guidance just on the next earnings cycle? Would it be more proactive than that? And just any kind of initial thoughts on how we might maybe think about Viterra swinging earnings? Thanks.

謝謝。這實際上是我的下一個問題。也許我很快就會偷偷溜進去。就 Viterra 而言，我想，從溝通方面來看，一旦它關閉，計劃是什麼樣的？僅在下一個獲利週期更新指引嗎？這會比這更積極主動嗎？您對於我們如何看待 Viterra 的波動收益有什麼初步想法嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. I think, Tom, our plan right now is to update on the Q1 call. Obviously, it depends on timing of close because we have a lot of work to do, putting the commercial teams together and looking at the future. We focused all of our time and attention on integration and getting through regulatory. And of course, given the fact that we're not one company, the commercial teams are limited in the communication, really limited to integration discussions and not what can we do together going forward.

是的。我認為，湯姆，我們現在的計劃是在第一季電話會議上進行更新。顯然，這取決於完成的時間，因為我們還有很多工作要做，包括組建商業團隊並展望未來。我們將所有的時間和精力都集中在整合和通過監管上。當然，鑑於我們不是一家公司，商業團隊的溝通受到限制，實際上僅限於整合討論，而不是我們未來可以一起做些什麼。

So we're looking forward to getting those teams together to talk about the future, what we can do together. And clearly, our first order of business will be taking a recast of how we feel about the balance of '25 post close, and then we'll share that as soon as we can.

因此，我們期待這些團隊能夠聚在一起討論未來以及我們可以共同做些什麼。顯然，我們的首要任務是重新審視我們對 25 年收盤後平衡的看法，然後我們會盡快與大家分享。

In the meantime, we're excited about it. We know we're in a very cyclical business. The environment is different than it was when we signed the deal, but this is about the long term. And we're just as excited today as the day we signed the deal and know in the long run, as we've had a chance to spend more time with their teams, really excited about what we can do together, especially in a world that seems to be more geopolitically uncertain and weather volatility and all the things that could play well into our model, it's going to give us that much more ability to manage.

同時，我們對此感到興奮。我們知道我們所處的行業具有很強的周期性。現在的環境與我們簽署協議時不同，但這關乎長期利益。今天我們和簽署協議那天一樣興奮，並且知道從長遠來看，我們有機會花更多時間與他們的團隊在一起，對我們可以一起做的事情感到非常興奮，特別是在一個地緣政治更加不確定、天氣波動更大的世界裡，所有這一切都可以很好地融入我們的模型，這將賦予我們更多的管理能力。

Right. Thanks for such detailed answers, guys.

正確的。謝謝大家如此詳細的回答。

Stephen Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的史蒂芬海恩斯。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask on the Viterra regulatory process. You mentioned some constructive comments with Chinese regulators. I was hoping if maybe you could provide a bit more color here on those discussions. And then is it also, I guess, fair to assume that any back and forth between the US and China on tariffs hasn't changed anything with those discussions? Thank you.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想要詢問有關 Viterra 監管流程的問題。您提到了對中國監管機構的一些建設性意見。我希望您能對這些討論提供更多的資訊。那麼，我想，我們是否可以公平地假設，美國和中國之間在關稅問題上的反覆爭論並沒有改變任何結果？謝謝。

Yeah. We -- no, I'd say we've had very productive discussions with the Chinese authorities. And we can continue to respond to the questions and work through the process, and we feel we're getting to the later stages of that.

是的。我們——不，我想說我們與中國當局進行了非常有成效的討論。我們可以繼續回答問題並推進整個進程，我們感覺我們即將進入後期階段。

And then as far as some of the external factors that are going on in the world, look, the one thing Bunge, with our global footprint as well as Viterra with their global footprint, we've both had very good relationships with the China market, with our counterparties in China, with the regulatory authorities. And these are decade-long relationships.

就世界上正在發生的一些外部因素而言，邦吉和Viterra都擁有全球影響力，我們都與中國市場、與我們在中國的交易對手以及監管機構保持著良好的關係。這些關係已經持續了十年。

And it's very important, right, to be able to connect that important demand in China with the farmers, right? And that's what we do. That's vitally important to help farmers be successful and to be profitable and continue to grow as well as it's important to China for their growing demand that we can connect them to all the different origins around the world.

能夠將中國的重要需求與農民聯繫起來非常重要，對吧？這正是我們所做的。這對於幫助農民取得成功、獲利和持續成長至關重要，同時對於中國日益增長的需求而言，我們能夠將他們與世界各地的不同原產地聯繫起來，這也很重要。

So those are long-term relationships and trust that's been built, and we'll just work through the process. We've seen a lot of different cycles and a lot of different situations in the world and relationships over those decades and expect to in the coming decades, which is why we're so excited about putting these two companies together.

所以，這些都是已經建立的長期關係和信任，我們會努力完成這個過程。在過去的幾十年裡，我們見證了世界和人際關係中許多不同的周期和許多不同的情況，預計在未來幾十年仍將如此，這就是我們對將這兩家公司合併如此興奮的原因。

Okay. Understood. Thank you very much.

好的。明白了。非常感謝。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

美國銀行的薩爾瓦多‧蒂亞諾 (Salvator Tiano)。

Yes. Thank you very much. Firstly, I wanted to talk a little bit in more detail about the financial implications of the acquisitions that you're close to completing. So firstly, on Viterra, previously, you had said that it most likely would be dilutive in year one.

是的。非常感謝。首先，我想更詳細地談談您即將完成的收購的財務影響。首先，關於 Viterra，您之前曾說過，它很可能在第一年就被稀釋。

And I want to see if you can put a finer point given that at this point, we're close to the completion. And also if we have line of sight to year two or year three, whether this will be at this point, dilutive or accretive. And on CJ Selecta, I think numbers that have been floated previously we're talking about perhaps $60 million EBIT contribution, which would be $0.30 EPS accretion on a full year basis. Is this still the case?

我想看看您是否可以提出更詳細的觀點，因為目前我們已經接近完成了。而且，如果我們展望第二年或第三年，那麼此時點是稀釋性的還是增值的。關於 CJ Selecta，我認為之前提出的數字可能是 6,000 萬美元的息稅前利潤貢獻，相當於全年每股收益增加 0.30 美元。現在還是這樣嗎？

Yeah, I'll start with Viterra. We -- out of the gate, it was going to be neutral to slightly positive on a pro forma basis after taking into consideration capturing first year synergies and share buybacks. Of course, we've done a bit of the share buybacks. We have $800 million remaining on that program.

是的，我將從 Viterra 開始。我們 — — 在考慮到第一年的協同效應和股票回購後，從預測基礎來看，它將是中性到略微積極的。當然，我們也做了一些股票回購。我們在該計劃上還剩餘8億美元。

But I think, look, it's difficult to assess exactly how it will have an impact first year because we haven't gotten together to put a forecast together for '25. But again, we will provide that clarity as soon as we can on '25. And then really an outlook beyond there, we have to spend some time together and understand how the businesses will work together and where -- how quickly we can capture the commercial synergies.

但我認為，很難準確評估它對第一年的影響，因為我們還沒有聚在一起對25年做出預測。但我們會盡快在 25 日再次澄清這一點。然後從真正的角度來看，我們必須花一些時間在一起，了解企業將如何合作，以及在哪裡——我們能多快地捕捉商業協同效應。

I think on the cost synergy side, we feel very good about the cadence that we have. But it will take time to get through the commercial side. So more to come on that. I think it's just going to -- it's a big company. It's a lot of work. We'll provide that clarity as soon as we can.

我認為在成本協同方面，我們對現有的節奏感到非常滿意。但要實現商業化還需要一些時間。對此，我們也將進行更多探討。我認為它只是——它是一家大公司。這需要做很多工作。我們將盡快提供澄清。

With respect to CJ Selecta, our general assumptions are largely intact on that. It's about a $600 million acquisition, and we expect mid-teen returns on that business. And so the -- there holds long term, certainly, we believe that's a great acquisition. And while any given quarter or year, SMBs can drive margins, we definitely believe that it's going to be a very good acquisition over the long term.

對於 CJ Selecta，我們的總體假設基本上保持不變。這是一項價值約 6 億美元的收購，我們預計該業務的回報率為 15% 左右。所以，從長期來看，我們當然相信這是一次偉大的收購。儘管在任何一個季度或年份，中小企業都能提高利潤率，但我們堅信，從長遠來看，這將是一次非常好的收購。

Perfect. Thank you very much. And also, I wanted to check a little bit on the capital allocation. So obviously, you are being more aggressive with buybacks and offsetting the dilution from the sale of the sugar JV. How should we think a little bit about that for this year?

完美的。非常感謝。另外，我想檢查一下資本配置。因此顯然，你們在回購方面採取了更積極的措施，以抵消出售糖業合資企業所造成的稀釋。今年我們該如何思考這個問題？

And on CapEx, I think previously, you had mentioned around $2 billion for 2025. So clearly, it's trending lower. And is this just finding efficiencies, taking off some projects of the books or just pushing -- being pushed back to 2026?

關於資本支出，我記得您之前提到 2025 年的資本支出約為 20 億美元。顯然，它呈下降趨勢。這只是為了提高效率，取消一些帳面上的項目，還是只是推遲到 2026 年？

Yeah. So with respect to share buybacks, as I mentioned, we have $800 million left on our commitment relative to Viterra. The original commitment was doing that within 18 months of close. And certainly, that can come sooner if it makes sense. And as we look at other sources and uses of cash, we're always looking at buybacks as an option for any excess cash that we're generating.

是的。關於股票回購，正如我所提到的，我們對 Viterra 的承諾還剩下 8 億美元。最初的承諾是在交易完成後的 18 個月內完成。當然，如果有意義的話，這個目標可以更快達成。當我們考慮現金的其他來源和用途時，我們始終將回購視為處理我們產生的多餘現金的一種選擇。

With respect to the CapEx estimate, originally at $1.9 billion to $2 billion, and now we're down $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion. Driven really by kind of 50-50 between some timing pushing into early '26 and our decision to forego some projects that we had on the slate that we decided not to pursue. So kind of a mix between the two.

關於資本支出估算，最初為 19 億美元至 20 億美元，現在下降了 15 億美元至 17 億美元。真正推動這一進程的是 50-50 的機會，一方面是將時間推遲到 26 年初，另一方面是我們決定放棄一些已列入計劃且不再繼續進行的項目。所以這是兩者之間的混合。

So overall, I think the $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion, we feel like it's a pretty good estimate for next year, down $200 million to $300 million from our original forecast.

因此總體而言，我認為 15 億至 17 億美元對於明年來說是一個相當不錯的估計，比我們最初的預測下降了 2 億至 3 億美元。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Pooran Sharma, Stephens.

普蘭夏爾馬，史蒂芬斯。

Thanks for the question. Just wanted to hop on and get a sense of the take-or-pay. I just want to get some granularity here. Now you said you're expecting better results out of South America because you won't see as much of an impact. I'm just wondering, in 2024, did you see -- was the impact kind of centered around the first half or the second half? Or was it split evenly throughout the year?

謝謝你的提問。只是想跳上去感受一下這種「要嘛接受，要嘛付費」的感覺。我只是想在這裡獲得一些細節。現在您說您期待南美取得更好的結果，因為您不會看到太大的影響。我只是想知道，在 2024 年，你是否看到──影響是集中在上半年還是下半年？還是全年均勻分佈？

Yeah. First, I'd say it was a total industry impact that unfortunately affected margins, not only in origination and crush, but in our exporting as well. And it was really something the industry struggled with all year, have accelerated a little in Q4 as the end of the year definitely approached and we felt it across our system in beans and corn, but definitely in our global corn business as well.

是的。首先，我想說這是對整個產業的影響，不幸的是，它不僅影響了產出和壓榨的利潤，也影響了我們的出口利潤。這是整個行業全年都在努力解決的問題，隨著年底的臨近，第四季度的問題有所加速，我們在整個豆類和玉米系統中都感受到了這種影響，但在我們的全球玉米業務中也確實感受到了這種影響。

Got it. Appreciate the color there. I guess on the follow-up, just want to get a sense of potential trade scenarios. I know the situation is fluid now, but just looking at past history, last time around, Bunge's South America business, at least the fundamentals were much better because it looks like flows shifted over from China to South America.

知道了。欣賞那裡的色彩。我想，在後續行動中，只是想了解潛在的貿易情景。我知道現在的情況很不穩定，但回顧過去的歷史，上一次，邦吉的南美業務至少基本面要好得多，因為看起來資金流動從中國轉移到了南美。

So just want to get your sense on the setup this time around. If you do get tariffs in place, do you expect to see as much of a benefit in your South America business? If you could just help me understand the puts and takes there.

所以只是想了解你這次的設定。如果確實實施關稅，您是否預期南美業務將獲得同樣多的利益？如果您能幫助我理解那裡的投入和產出。

Yeah. One thing that I would point out as you think about it versus the challenges in the trade war in 2018, Bunge is a very different company. The way we operate, the global platform and the way that we've changed our operating model, I think we're much better positioned to react more quickly to the challenges and/or opportunities. And we've made some improvements in the platform, right, in our asset platform.

是的。我想指出的一點是，與 2018 年貿易戰面臨的挑戰相比，邦吉是一家截然不同的公司。我們的營運方式、全球平台以及我們改變營運模式的方式，我認為我們能夠更好地對挑戰和/或機會做出更快的反應。我們對平台，對，對我們的資產平台做了一些改進。

So we've got more capabilities from that standpoint as well. So that's the differentiation I would draw from '18 to today and what we'll be dealing with here in 2025. And the other, we're a little bit battle-tested when you think about some of the things that we've been challenged with, whether it's African swine fever or geopolitical regional situations, COVID, and the teams performed very well through all of those. So I think we're in much better position from a capabilities and from a platform for the challenges that are in front of us.

因此從這個角度來看我們也擁有了更多的能力。這就是我從 2018 年到今天的區分，也是我們在 2025 年要處理的問題。另一方面，當你想到我們面臨的一些挑戰時，我們已經經歷了一些實戰考驗，無論是非洲豬瘟還是地緣政治區域局勢、新冠肺炎，我們的團隊在所有這些挑戰中都表現得非常出色。因此我認為，從能力和平台來看，我們更有能力應對面臨的挑戰。

Yeah, I might just add that obviously, we're used to supplying China out of both North and South America, depending on the time of year, harvest in the US, we supply a lot of beans out of the US. And then that shifts to Brazil or South America later in the year.

是的，我還要補充一點，顯然，我們習慣從北美和南美向中國供應咖啡豆，根據美國的收穫季節，我們從美國供應大量的咖啡豆。然後在今年稍後轉移到巴西或南美洲。

And so we're -- it's very much a dynamic that we're used to. And so if trade policy affects trade flows, we'll be able to adjust to that accordingly, given our experience and obviously working in China as Greg had pointed out earlier for decades.

所以我們—這是一種我們已經習慣的動態。因此，如果貿易政策影響到貿易流量，我們將能夠相應地進行調整，鑑於我們的經驗，以及我們在中國工作了幾十年的經驗，正如格雷格之前指出的那樣。

Look, our goal ultimately, right, is to connect those demand markets with the farmers and send the appropriate signals, right, for planting decisions that the farmers are making to be able to have the right crops and drive their profitability.

看，我們的最終目標是將這些需求市場與農民聯繫起來，並發出適當的信號，以便農民做出種植決策，從而能夠獲得合適的作物並提高盈利能力。

Got it. Appreciate the color, guys.

知道了。欣賞這顏色，夥計們。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的本‧圖勒 (Ben Theurer)。

Good morning, Greg, John. So just wanted to follow up on one of the questions that's related to what Tom had in terms of like the baseline and kind of like tie that back into from what obviously you've shared already during the call. But I remember back roughly 2.5 years ago, you also presented some of the impact that you're expecting from, a, growth CapEx, and b, M&A versus share repurchases. So I think we've discussed the M&A and share repurchase piece around it.

早安，格雷格、約翰。因此，我只是想跟進與湯姆所提問題相關的一個問題，即基線，並將其與您在通話中已經分享的內容聯繫起來。但我記得大約 2.5 年前，您也介紹了您預期的一些影響，a、成長資本支出，以及 b、併購與股票回購。所以我認為我們已經討論過有關併購和股票回購的部分。

But could you maybe also elaborate just given the increased CapEx that you've been seeing and what you've been putting out already last year for this year and then that's probably even going to carry over into first half 2026, what do you expect from that in terms of contribution as to your let's just assume it's still the same baseline?

但是，您能否詳細說明一下，鑑於您所看到的資本支出增加以及您去年為今年投入的資金，並且這甚至可能會延續到 2026 年上半年，您對此的貢獻有何期望，假設它仍然是相同的基線？

What would that be? What's that incremental earnings that you think that can come out of that CapEx as you roll over into then the second half of '26 and then beyond into 2027 in a more normalized CapEx cycle, but with those assets being produced?

那會是什麼？您認為，當您進入 26 年下半年，然後在 2027 年以後進入更正常的資本支出週期時，這些資本支出可以產生的增量收益是多少，但這些資產正在生產？

Sure. So our baseline assumption as we built our go-forward model was really built around CapEx and M&A -- small amount of M&A, mostly large CapEx. And those projects are largely on track. Timing has been a little affected by weather and labor availability on a couple of them, but largely intact with our long-term game plan. And obviously, what the environment is like when those projects finish will impact maybe the near-term economics of those projects.

當然。因此，我們建構未來模型時的基本假設實際上是圍繞資本支出和併購建立的——少量的併購，大部分是大型資本支出。這些項目基本上進展順利。其中一些項目的進度受到天氣和勞動力可用性的一點影響，但基本上符合我們的長期計劃。顯然，這些工程完工時的環境可能會影響這些工程的近期經濟狀況。

But -- and then CJ Selecta, for example, is one of those projects that we had on our radar screen back when we built the model, and that hopefully will close here soon. So I feel like we're largely on track on the growth side with what we modeled. And we had anticipated that impacting about $2.50. So we were expecting about $11 baseline, all else being equal, our baseline from $8.50 to $11.

但是——例如，CJ Selecta 是我們在建立模型時關注的項目之一，希望它很快就會結束。所以我覺得我們在成長方面基本上符合我們所建模的軌道。我們預計這會影響到約 2.50 美元。因此，我們預計基準價格約為 11 美元，在其他條件相同的情況下，我們的基準價格為 8.50 美元至 11 美元。

Now obviously, what the environment is going to be like at the end of 2026 when we largely expect these projects to be wrapped up, anyone's guess at this point. But assuming a mid-cycle or relatively mid-cycle environment at that point, that's what we would expect our baseline to have reset to.

顯然，當我們普遍預期這些項目將在 2026 年底完成時，環境將會是什麼樣的，目前誰也說不準。但假設當時處於週期中期或相對週期中期的環境，我們預期我們的基準將會重置到這個水準。

Okay, perfect. And then just real quick as it relates to like the cadence, how to think about share buybacks. I mean, obviously, you've done about $1.1 billion now as of December. So that means there's still around about $900 million missing, which is within the Viterra deal.

好的，完美。然後就和節奏相關的內容快速地講解一下如何考慮股票回購。我的意思是，顯然截至 12 月，你已經賺了約 11 億美元。所以這意味著仍有大約 9 億美元缺失，這筆錢包含在 Viterra 交易中。

Is that still more likely now to happen post transaction close? Or would you continue to buy shares even ahead of it, just given the liquidity you have right now post the sugar closure?

交易結束後，這種情況是否仍有可能發生？或者，考慮到糖業關閉後您現在擁有的流動性，您是否會繼續提前購買股票？

Yeah. So we have $800 million left. And while we haven't made any specific decision on when, but certainly, it will be opportunistic. We'll get it done. But the cadence haven't really settled on when. But certainly, we will -- if it makes sense to do it sooner, we'll do it sooner. But if we have other reasons not to do it right away, we will consider that. But we'll get it done for sure.

是的。所以我們還剩下8億美元。雖然我們還沒有就何時做出任何具體決定，但這肯定會是個機會。我們會完成它。但節奏還未真正確定下來。但當然，我們會——如果提前做有意義，我們就會提前做。但如果我們因其他原因不立即採取行動，我們會考慮。但我們一定會完成它。

Okay, perfect. Thank you. I'll leave it go.

好的，完美。謝謝。我就不管它了。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hi, good morning. Thank you so much. So my question is on the disaster aid package for farmers that was -- US farmers that was announced in December. I think they're getting assistance per acre for both corn and soybeans. So do you see any potential benefits of any of this -- for any of your segments benefiting from this as the year progresses?

嗨，早安。太感謝了。我的問題是關於 12 月宣布的針對美國農民的災難援助計劃。我認為他們每英畝玉米和大豆都會獲得援助。那麼，您是否認為這些舉措會帶來任何潛在的好處——隨著時間的推移，您的任何細分市場都會從中受益？

I think it's kind of a small impact to us overall. What I think the upside and what's good is that farmers will have what they need to make the investment in this next crop in the seed and the inputs to plant the right crops and have the right productivity. So it's good that they've got that funding. And I think that support is positive, and that should be good for production.

我認為整體來說這對我們影響不大。我認為其好處是，農民將擁有對下一季作物進行投資所需的種子和投入，以種植合適的作物並獲得適當的生產力。所以他們獲得這筆資金是件好事。我認為這種支持是正面的，這對生產有利。

Got it. That's helpful. And I wanted to follow up on that tariff question from earlier. I know it's still fluid, but there is a narrative that increased exports of more ag commodities out of the US into some of the trading partners like China could be a negotiating tactic under the current administration.

知道了。這很有幫助。我想跟進一下之前的關稅問題。我知道這仍不確定，但有一種說法是，增加美國對中國等一些貿易夥伴的農產品出口可能是現任政府的談判策略。

So given your footprint, how would that impact your outlook if, let's say, China promises to buy more from the US maybe at the expense of South America?

那麼考慮到您的足跡，如果說中國承諾從美國購買更多產品，可能以犧牲南美為代價，這會對您的前景產生什麼影響？

Yeah. One thing we're very glad that we have a very balanced global footprint. So whether that's on the merch side or on the crushing, the oilseed processing side, we've been able to balance a number of situations in the last few years to continue to perform. It may create regional trade-offs like in the US where that would benefit export, and it may be slightly more challenging to crush, but then we would try to adjust elsewhere in our global system to respond to that.

是的。我們非常高興我們的全球足跡非常均衡。因此，無論是在商品方面，還是在壓榨、油籽加工方面，我們在過去幾年中已經能夠平衡多種情況並繼續保持業績。這可能會造成區域權衡，就像在美國那樣，這將有利於出口，而且粉碎它可能更具挑戰性，但我們會嘗試調整全球體系的其他地方來應對這種情況。

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful.

知道了。謝謝。這很有幫助。

Derrick Whitfield, Texas Capital.

德州首府的德里克·惠特菲爾德。

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. Starting with refining, we've seen the spread between RBD, SBO, and crude SBO collapse to historically low levels. With the understanding that the majority of refiners are buying crude versus refined, where should this market settle out once demand returns as I can't imagine refining costs are less than $0.02 per pound.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。從煉油開始，我們看到 RBD、SBO 和原油 SBO 之間的價差跌至歷史最低點。考慮到大多數煉油商購買的是原油而非成品油，一旦需求回升，這個市場應該如何穩定下來，因為我無法想像煉油成本會低於每磅 0.02 美元。

I guess I'd start by saying we all along said that as the pretreatment got built in renewable diesel, we expected to see some of the margin move from the refined into the crude. We've definitely seen that. So the crude will carry a bigger piece on the crush.

我想首先要說的是，我們一直都說，隨著再生柴油預處理的建立，我們預計部分利潤將從精煉轉向原油。我們確實看到了這一點。因此原油在壓榨過程中將承受更大的壓力。

We've got a little bit different footprint with our global specialty oils business. We've got a very good customer base that we've continued to help manage their challenges and grow with. We've got a nice balance between the QSR as well as the CPG and the food at home.

我們的全球特種油業務足跡略有不同。我們擁有非常好的客戶群，我們一直幫助他們應對挑戰並一起成長。我們在 QSR、CPG 和家裡的食物之間取得了良好的平衡。

So we -- our account mix has been favorable as we've seen some of the changes with the consumer. And then some of our specialty business on the oil side have benefited from the tight cocoa butter supply as well as you remember, we added a plant at Avondale and as we've ramped that up in our capabilities here in North America on specialty oils. So kind of all that rolls into when you see what our refined overages are, we probably got a little bit different package or portfolio than what someone who might just be a North American player.

因此，隨著我們看到消費者的一些變化，我們的帳戶組合一直很有利。然後，我們在石油方面的一些特種業務也受益於可可脂供應緊張，正如您記得的那樣，我們在阿文代爾增加了一家工廠，並且我們在北美的特種油生產能力也得到了提升。所以當你看到我們的精煉超額時，你會發現我們獲得的方案或投資組合可能與北美玩家略有不同。

Derrick, I'd just add that while the storyline is -- a lot of it is about energy and crude versus refined oil, the energy sector, we supplied less oil this year, not only as a percentage of our total book, but also just in actual volume. We provided less to the energy industry just because demand has been soft with all the uncertainty.

德瑞克，我想補充一點，雖然故事情節很多都是關於能源、原油與成品油的，但在能源領域，我們今年的石油供應量減少了，不僅是佔總庫存的百分比，而且實際供應量也減少了。由於種種不確定性，能源需求疲軟，我們減少了對能源產業的供應。

So that could be upside in the future if -- this obviously would be upside in the future if policy gets clarified. And we think demand for soybean oil, whether refined or crude is good. Either way, we want demand for that product. But refining premiums have held in there pretty well. And to Greg's point, it's been very resilient with the continued demand -- the elastic demand from the food industry.

所以，如果政策明確，這在未來可能會帶來上行空間。我們認為，無論是精煉豆油或原油，其需求都很好。無論如何，我們都希望該產品有需求。但煉油溢價一直保持得很好。正如格雷格所說，由於食品業的持續需求具有彈性，它一直具有很強的彈性。

And I think it's probably also worth mentioning, right? There is a big biofuel installed base that exists now. It's in place. So as we work out the RVO and work out 45Z, there's a lot of demand there that could make a difference in a hurry. And we trust that the policy is going to get worked out, right?

我認為這也可能值得一提，對嗎？目前，生物燃料的安裝基礎已經很大。它已到位。因此，當我們制定 RVO 和 45Z 時，會發現那裡存在大量需求，可能會很快產生影響。我們相信這項政策會被實施，對嗎？

There's a lot of installed capacity. The money has already been spent. It's available today to run in those facilities, whether it's traditional biodiesel, renewable diesel or SAF, they're underutilized today. And when we get those policy rights, that's also supportive to agriculture at the farm gate.

已安裝容量很大。錢已經花掉了。目前這些設施中已可使用傳統生質柴油、再生柴油或 SAF，但尚未充分利用。當我們獲得這些政策權利時，這也將對農場門口的農業提供支持。

That's supportive to the farmer. And we think we're going to get -- eventually get those dots connected, and we hope that will be later here this year. But that installed capacity base is there. And as John said, we've got upside on the amount of oil that we can provide when they're ready to go.

這對農民來說是一種支持。我們認為我們最終會將這些點連接起來，我們希望這將在今年稍後實現。但安裝容量基礎是存在的。正如約翰所說，當石油準備就緒時，我們可以提供大量的石油。

Great. We definitely agree with that assessment as well. And then as my follow-up, I wanted to touch on 45Z. In your view, is there a merit from a carbon counting perspective for canola to have a materially higher CI than SBO when you evaluate ag and processing practices?

偉大的。我們絕對也同意這個評估。然後作為我的後續，我想談談 45Z。您認為，從碳計數的角度來看，當您評估農業和加工實踐時，油菜籽的 CI 明顯高於 SBO 是否有好處？

Yeah, look, I'm not a scientist, so it's hard to understand all the math that goes into it. Today, it doesn't have a path. Obviously, the one we're watching more closely is winter canola because we have a program and think that, obviously, the scores there should be considerably different, especially when you think about indirect land use.

是的，看，我不是科學家，所以很難理解其中涉及的所有數學知識。如今，它已經沒有路了。顯然，我們更密切關注的是冬季油菜，因為我們有一個計劃，並認為，顯然那裡的分數應該有很大差異，特別是當你考慮間接土地使用時。

TBD, the policy did make note that it was spring canola that they had assessed. And so we're hopeful that they'll be reviewing winter canola and treating that differently. Today, that's flowing to Europe because there is demand in Europe for winter canola seed and our program here in the US it's growing.

有待確定，該政策確實指出他們評估的是春油菜籽。因此，我們希望他們能夠重新審查冬季油菜籽並採取不同的處理方式。如今，這些油菜籽流向了歐洲，因為歐洲對冬季油菜籽的需求很大，而且我們在美國的計畫也在成長。

But we'll see how things shake out. I mean there's going to be a lot of conversations certainly. But one thing we do know is that we'll be positioned to support wherever the stuff needs to go and today, some of its Europe.

但我們會看看事情會如何發展。我的意思是肯定會有很多對話。但有一件事我們知道，那就是我們將為貨物需要運往的任何地方提供支持，今天，部分貨物運往歐洲。

Clearly, as 45Z came out, it was more favorable to soybean oil. But we do think winter canola has a place as well as some of the other novel crops that we continue to work.

顯然，45Z一出來，就對大豆油更加有利。但我們確實認為冬季油菜籽以及我們繼續種植的其他一些新作物都有一席之地。

And I'd say what's encouraging is that we're seeing the players along the value chain work together with the policymakers to try to get the same set of facts for everyone to work together. So whether it's the energy industry, the processing industry, the farm groups, we are seeing everyone try to engage on the facts, and we believe that, that will be productive over the long term.

我想說，令人鼓舞的是，我們看到價值鏈上的參與者與政策制定者共同努力，努力讓每個人都能獲得相同的事實。因此，無論是能源產業、加工產業或農場團體，我們都看到每個人都試圖基於事實進行參與，我們相信，從長遠來看，這將是富有成效的。

Perfect. Thanks for your time.

完美的。感謝您的時間。

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

安德魯·斯特雷爾齊克（BMO）。

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I had two questions. The first one about some of the near-term uncertainties that you've been discussing. And you have cash crush that looks pretty poor versus a crush curve that gets better throughout the year.

早安.感謝您回答這些問題。我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於您所討論的一些近期的不確定性。而且，現金壓力看起來相當糟糕，而壓力曲線在全年都有所改善。

What's your degree of confidence? Or how do you weigh the risk that maybe some of these uncertainties kind of linger beyond the first quarter? Is there a degree of confidence that this will be more confined to the quarter? Or how do you balance those two in your outlook?

你的自信程度如何？或者您如何衡量這些不確定因素在第一季之後持續存在的風險？是否有信心這將僅限於本季？或者您如何在您的觀點中平衡這兩者？

I'd say when you look at the calendarization that we put together with delivering the $775 million, right, we talked about that's approximately. So we see scenarios where that's got risk and upside, right? We look at where we're at right now in the cycles of harvest.

我想說，當你看到我們制定的 7.75 億美元交付計劃時，我們討論的就是這個數字。所以我們看到的情況是既有風險也有好處，對嗎？我們來看看現在我們處於收穫週期的哪個階段。

We've got kind of second quarter -- first quarter is going to be pretty tough. Second quarter, we'll start to see some benefits from South America. And then as we get in the second half of the year, of course, from North America crops.

我們即將迎來第二季——第一季將會相當艱難。第二季度，我們將開始看到來自南美洲的一些好處。當然，隨著我們進入下半年，我們將迎來北美農作物的收穫。

So I think that's reflected in that expecting 40% of our earnings in the first half and is even more reflected when you think about in the first half, we're only expecting of that 40% -- for 40% of that to be in the first quarter. So that calendarization kind of shows what we expect to roll out.

所以我認為這反映在我們預計上半年的收益為 40% 上，尤其是當您想到上半年時，我們僅預計 40%——其中 40% 將在第一季實現。因此，日曆化可以顯示我們期望推出的內容。

And then the caveat around that being, look, tariffs and possible retaliatory measures to the point they'll benefit one region, and we'll have to manage that from another region. The one thing that does, it makes planning tougher, and it may drive not only farmers but consumers more into the spot. That could make things delay a little bit more. So that will be one of the, I think, factors to watch in '25.

然後，需要注意的是，關稅和可能的報復措施如果使一個地區受益，我們必須從另一個地區來管理。這確實會使規劃變得更加困難，並且不僅會迫使農民，還會迫使消費者更多地進入現場。這可能會使事情進一步延遲。所以我認為這將是 25 年需要關注的因素之一。

Andrew, I might just add that I know we've talked a lot about renewables, but some additional certainty around where things are going to shake out from a renewable standpoint could have a significant impact on demand for soybean oil. Greg pointed out, the assets are there, the capacity is there to moves and these plants are significantly -- they're significant. And they're able to take a significant amount of volume, soybean oil when they're running and running hard. So that could change the dynamics pretty quickly.

安德魯，我還要補充一點，我知道我們已經討論了很多關於可再生能源的問題，但從可再生能源的角度來看，事情將會如何發展的一些額外的確定性可能會對大豆油的需求產生重大影響。格雷格指出，資產就在那裡，產能也在那裡，而且這些工廠意義重大——它們非常重要。當他們跑步並且快速奔跑時，他們可以攝取大量的大豆油。所以這可能會很快改變情況。

But again, the policy uncertainty, people are very reluctant to book forward. And I think that's reflected in the cash markets is a lot of hand to mouth right now on that side because people aren't -- don't have enough conviction to go forward.

但同樣，由於政策的不確定性，人們非常不願意提前預訂。我認為這反映在現金市場上，目前人們的生存狀況很糟糕，因為人們沒有足夠的信心繼續前進。

The other, of course, is watch the weather, right now looks favorable for Brazil and how the harvest should develop there, watching, it's a little dry in Argentina. So we want to watch that closely. And then remember, meal economics are very good and the animal numbers are out there.

另一個當然是觀察天氣，目前天氣對巴西有利，而且那裡的收成將會如何發展，觀察阿根廷的天氣，天氣有點乾燥。因此我們希望密切關注這一點。然後記住，膳食經濟學非常好，動物數量也在那裡。

Soybean meal priced very well, less competition from wheat and from the mid-pros. And so we're at high inclusion rates on the meal side. And then John spoke to the fact about there's a lot of bio-capacity out there and the regulatory clarity, is on the way, we hope there in the second half.

豆粕價格非常好，來自小麥和中檔產品的競爭較少。因此，我們的餐飲包含率很高。然後約翰談到事實上存在大量的生物容量並且監管的清晰度正在路上，我們希望在下半年能夠實現。

And then don't forget globally, why we've got a lot of uncertainty in the US, right? Brazil has got fuel of the future. They'll be moving up to B15 on their way to B20. Indonesia has talked about going from B35 and on their way to B40. And then Europe has put some more favorable regulation policy in place first half and starting to move towards maritime. So there's a lot happening globally on the biofuels continuing to kind of quietly develop demand and investments continue to move forward.

然後不要忘記從全球來看，為什麼美國存在這麼多的不確定性，對吧？巴西獲得了未來的燃料。他們將在晉級至 B20 的途中升至 B15。印尼已經討論過從 B35 轉向 B40。歐洲在上半年推出了一些更有利的監管政策，並開始向海運邁進。全球範圍內，生物燃料的發展態勢良好，需求持續悄悄成長，投資也持續向前發展。

Okay. That's super helpful color. I appreciate that. And my other question, I guess -- I appreciate we just got the 2025 guidance, but I'm trying to think about the earnings trajectory of this business over the next, I don't know, two or three years, next several years. And obviously, this year has a lot of disruption, a lot of kind of rebalancing.

好的。這是非常有用的顏色。我很感激。我的另一個問題是——我很感激我們剛剛得到了 2025 年的指引，但我正在試圖思考這項業務在未來兩三年或幾年的盈利軌跡。顯然，今年有很多混亂，也有很多重新平衡的情況。

And then you have -- everyone can make their own assumption on kind of the pro forma numbers with Viterra and CJ Selecta, but then you have synergies and you have returns on these capital projects and maybe less a lack of visibility going forward.

然後你就有——每個人都可以對 Viterra 和 CJ Selecta 的預測數字做出自己的假設，但你有協同效應，你有這些資本項目的回報，也許未來的可見度會降低。

Do you see 2025 as an earnings base maybe on a pro forma basis that you should grow from over the next several years or kind of like a trough-ish type of number? And maybe help us with if there's any of the building blocks that I left out, kind of how you think about the trajectory of the business over the next couple of years. Thanks.

您是否認為 2025 年是一個獲利基礎，或許是一個預計未來幾年獲利將成長的基礎，或者是一個類似低谷類型的數字？如果我遺漏了什麼基本要點，您或許能幫助我們，例如您如何看待未來幾年業務的發展軌跡。謝謝。

Let me start. The one thing would be yes. And that's because think about -- we're excited about bringing Viterra and Bunge together. But I'll tell you who's really excited are the teams, right? They're engaged and they're anxious.

讓我開始吧。答案是肯定的。這是因為想想看——我們很高興能夠將 Viterra 和 Bunge 合併在一起。但我會告訴你真正興奮的是球隊，對吧？他們既投入其中，又焦慮不安。

We continue to be competitors. And so the commercial teams have not been able to do that planning. But we're excited about the commercial synergies when we're able to get those teams together and start to do the work as one Bunge here into the future.

我們繼續是競爭對手。因此商業團隊無法進行這樣的規劃。但當我們能夠將這些團隊聚集在一起，並在未來以邦吉集團的名義開始工作時，我們對商業協同效應感到非常興奮。

So from that, that's part of where we are building off of. And then that will also provide the cash for us to continue to invest as we go forward.

因此，從這一點開始，這就是我們正在建造的一部分。這也將為我們提供繼續投資的現金。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在，我想將會議交還給 Greg Heckman，請他作最後發言。

Thank you very much for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Bunge, and we look forward to speaking to you again soon. Have a great day.

非常感謝您今天加入我們。感謝您對邦吉的關注，我們期待很快再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演示，現在您可以斷開連接了。