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Operator
Operator
Good day, and welcome to the Bunge Global SA fourth quarter 2025 earnings release and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Haden. Please go ahead.
大家好,歡迎參加邦吉全球公司2025年第四季財報發表會及電話會議。(操作說明)請注意,本次活動正在錄影。現在我將把會議交給馬克·哈登。請繼續。
Mark Haden - Vice President - Investor Relations
Mark Haden - Vice President - Investor Relations
Great. Thank you. And thank you for joining us this morning for our fourth quarter earnings call. Before you started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. These can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under events and presentations.
偉大的。謝謝。感謝各位今天上午參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。在你們開始之前,我想告訴你們,我們準備了投影片來配合討論。您可以在我們網站 bunge.com 的投資者中心「活動與演示」欄位下找到這些資訊。
Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure are posted on our website as well. I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance, and industry conditions.
我們的非GAAP指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表也已發佈在我們的網站上。請看第 2 張投影片,並提醒各位,今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述,反映了邦吉公司目前對未來事件、財務表現和產業狀況的看法。
The forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Well, he had provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results materially from those contained in this presentation.
前瞻性陳述受各種風險和不確定因素的影響。他在提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了補充信息,這些信息涉及可能導致實際結果與本次演示文稿中所包含的結果存在重大差異的因素。
We encourage you to review these factors. On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer; and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.
我們建議您仔細考慮這些因素。今天早上參加電話會議的有邦吉公司執行長格雷格·赫克曼和財務長約翰·內普爾。現在我將把電話交給格雷格。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Mark, and good morning everyone. I want to start this morning by thanking the team and recognizing their extraordinary work around the world. Both throughout 2025 and as we move into 2026.
謝謝你,馬克,大家早安。今天早上,我首先要感謝我的團隊,並表彰他們在世界各地所做的傑出工作。2025 年全年以及進入 2026 年,情況都將如此。
This past year was one of execution, investment, and integration, all in a market environment that demanded agility and discipline. In 2025, we reached a major milestone with the completion of our Viterra combination. The integration work our teams accomplished has been exceptional. And we remain highly engaged and excited about the progress. We're continuing to make together.
過去一年,我們專注於執行、投資和整合,而市場環境要求我們具備敏捷性和自律性。2025年,隨著Viterra合併專案的完成,我們達到了一個重要的里程碑。我們團隊完成的整合工作非常出色。我們仍然高度關注並樂見這一進展。我們將繼續攜手共進。
Building on a foundation of cultures. There were already aligned on doing what is right for customers. This combination brings both organizations together within our proven end to end value chain operating model.
建立在多元文化的基礎上。他們早已在做對客戶有利的事情上達成了一致。此次合併將兩家公司整合到我們成熟的端到端價值鏈營運模式中。
Removing complexity and strengthening shared goals. As a result, we've increased connectivity and the flow of information across our combined organization.
消除複雜性,強化共同目標。因此,我們提高了合併後組織內部的互聯互通和資訊流動。
A crucial component to how we operate. As I've said before, it's our competitive advantage to have great people across the organization. Having the same information at the same time and working toward unified objectives.
這是我們營運方式的關鍵組成部分。正如我之前所說,擁有遍布整個組織的優秀人才是我們的競爭優勢。同時掌握相同訊息,朝著統一的目標努力。
This alignment is already delivering results. We are unlocking synergies and origination, merchandizing. Processing, and distribution. Optimizing flows between origin and destination and capturing margin through improved logistics and better coordination.
這種協調一致已經取得了成效。我們正在釋放協同效應,並進行產品開發和銷售。加工和配送。透過改善物流和加強協調,優化始發地和目的地之間的物流流動,從而獲取利潤。
For example, previously by Viterra's origination activities in most regions would have been managed purely through a merchandizing lens. Leveraging a nimble platform built to operate on short lead times.
例如,先前 Viterra 在大多數地區的採購活動都是完全從商品銷售的角度進行管理的。利用專為短週期營運而打造的靈活平台。
Today, people managing the same network of elevators are now making decisions with a more complete picture of our global platform. Taking an integrated view, the balances speed with longer-term considerations.
如今,管理同一電梯網路的人員在做決策時,能夠更全面地了解我們的全球平台。從整體角度來看,它兼顧了速度和長期考慮。
This not only allows us to keep our processing in a refining plants running at high capacities, but also results in more profitable outcomes for both farmers and consumers. We have capabilities today that we didn't have before.
這不僅使我們能夠維持煉油廠高產能運轉,還能為農民和消費者帶來更豐厚的利潤。我們現在擁有以前不具備的能力。
And we're just getting started. These types of benefits are durable and will compound over time. We'll pro -- we will provide more details on Synergy capture capital allocation priorities.
我們才剛起步。這些類型的益處是持久的,並且會隨著時間的推移而不斷累積。我們將提供更多關於協同效應獲取資本分配優先事項的詳細資訊。
And our combined long-term outlook at our Investor Day on March 10. And while we've been integrating Viterra, we've also been working to advance our large green field projects. Navigating trade flows, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical volatility.
我們在 3 月 10 日的投資者日上公佈了我們的長期展望。在整合 Viterra 的同時,我們也一直在努力推動我們的大型新建專案。應對貿易流動、政策不確定性和地緣政治波動。
All while staying focused on connecting farmers to in the market demand across food, feed, and fuel. Shifting for operating performance our fourth quarter reflected higher results in all our segments, driven by strong execution and our expanded footprint and capabilities.
同時,始終專注於將農民與市場對食品、飼料和燃料的需求連結起來。從營運業績來看,我們第四季度所有業務部門的業績均有所提高,這得益於我們強有力的執行以及不斷擴大的業務範圍和能力。
John would go into more details in a moment. Externally, the environment remains complex, with limited forward visibility. Geopolitical tensions, evolving trade flows and uncertainty around biofuel policy, and that's particularly in the U.S. continue to influence farmer and consumer behavior.
約翰稍後會詳細說明。外部環境依然複雜,前方能見度有限。地緣政治緊張局勢、不斷變化的貿易流向以及生物燃料政策的不確定性,尤其是在美國,繼續影響農民和消費者的行為。
Based on what we can see today in the current environment and forward curves, we expect full year 2026, adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50 to $8. And with that, I'll turn it over to John for more details on our financials and outlook.
根據我們目前在當前環境下所看到的以及遠期曲線,我們預計 2026 年全年調整後每股收益將在 7.50 美元至 8 美元之間。接下來,我將把發言權交給約翰,讓他詳細介紹我們的財務狀況和前景。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Greg, and good morning everyone. Let's turn to the earrings highlights in slide 5. Our reported fourth quarter earnings per share was $0.49 compared to $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
謝謝格雷格,大家早安。讓我們來看看第 5 張投影片中的耳環亮點。我們公佈的第四季每股收益為 0.49 美元,而 2024 年第四季為 4.36 美元。
Our quarter results included an unfavorable market to market timing difference is $0.55 per share, an unfavorable impact $0.95, primarily from notable items related to the settlement of our U.S. defined benefit pension plan by Viterra transaction integration cost.
我們的季度業績包括每股0.55美元的不利市場時機差異,以及0.95美元的不利影響,主要來自與我們透過Viterra結算的美國固定收益退休金計畫相關的重大項目以及交易整合成本。
And an impairment of a long-term investment. Prayer results included a net positive impact of $0.98 from notable items, primarily related to the gain on the sale of our sugar and bioenergy joint venture, partially offset by Viterra transaction integration costs.
以及長期投資的減損。祈禱結果包括來自重要項目的淨正影響 0.98 美元,主要與出售我們的糖和生物能源合資企業的收益有關,部分被 Viterra 交易整合成本所抵消。
Adjusted EPS with [$1.99] in the fourth quarter, which included approximately $50 million of net tax benefits versus $2.13 in the prior year. Adjusted segment before interest and taxes or EBIT for $756 million in the quarter versus $546 million last year with all segments showing higher year over year results.
第四季調整後每股收益為 1.99 美元,其中包括約 5,000 萬美元的淨稅收優惠,而去年同期為 2.13 美元。本季調整後的息稅前利潤(EBIT)為 7.56 億美元,去年同期為 5.46 億美元,所有業務部門的表現均較去年同期成長。
Soybean processing and refining segment. Slightly higher results were primarily driven by South America, reflecting higher processing and refining results in Argentina and Brazil.
大豆加工和精煉環節。略微提升的績效主要來自南美洲,反映出阿根廷和巴西的加工和精煉程度較高。
And the destination value chain, lower processing results in Europe and origination in the Americas were partially offset by improved results in Asia. Results in North America were lower in both processing and refining.
在目的地價值鏈中,歐洲加工效率下降以及美洲原產地加工效率下降,部分被亞洲加工效率的提高所抵消。北美地區的加工和精煉結果均較低。
Your process volumes were largely attributed to the company's expanded production capacity in Argentina. Hire merchandise volumes reflected the company's expanded soybean origination footprint.
你們的加工量大幅成長,主要歸功於公司在阿根廷擴大了生產能力。租賃商品數量反映了該公司不斷擴大的大豆採購規模。
In the softseed processing and refining segment, higher results were primarily driven by better average processing margins, and the addition of Viterra acids and capabilities.
在軟籽加工和精煉領域,較高的業績主要得益於更好的平均加工利潤率,以及 Viterra 酸和能力的增加。
In North America, higher results, higher processing results were partially offset by lower results in refining. In Europe, results were higher in processing and biodiesel, but lower in refining. In Argentina, results were higher in processing and modestly higher in refining.
在北美,加工效率的提高被精煉效率的降低部分抵消。在歐洲,加工和生物柴油領域的成果較高,但精煉領域的成果較低。在阿根廷,加工環節的結果較高,精煉環節的結果略高。
And resulting go -- softseeds and global oil's merchandizing activities also increased, reflecting strong execution. Higher self process volumes primarily reflected the company's increased production capacity in Argentina, Canada, and Europe.
由此帶來的結果是──軟籽和全球石油的銷售活動也隨之增加,反映出強勁的執行力。自加工量增加主要反映了公司在阿根廷、加拿大和歐洲產能的提升。
Hire merchandise vole driven by the company's expanded softseeds origination footprint. For oilseeds processing and refining segment, improved results reflected stronger, specialty oils performance in Asia and North America, along with higher global oil's merchandizing activity.
受公司擴大軟種子採購範圍的影響,招募商品田鼠。油籽加工和精煉領域業績的改善反映了亞洲和北美特種油品的強勁表現,以及全球油脂銷售活動的增加。
Results in Europe line with the prior year. In the grain merchandizing and milk segment, higher results are primarily driven by global wheat and barley, as well as wheat milling, partially offset by low results in global corn and ocean freight.
歐洲地區的業績與上年持平。在糧食貿易和牛奶領域,較高的業績主要得益於全球小麥和大麥以及小麥加工的成長,但部分被全球玉米和海運表現的低迷所抵消。
Our volumes were primarily reflected the company's expanded grain handling footprint and capabilities, along with large global grain crops. Prior year results included corn milling, which was divested in the second quarter of 2025.
我們的交易量主要反映了公司不斷擴大的糧食處理規模和能力,以及全球糧食豐收的局面。上一年的業績包括玉米加工業務,該業務已於 2025 年第二季剝離。
The increase in corporate expenses was primarily driven by the addition of Viterra. Higher other results primarily reflected our captive insurance program, partially offset by $10 million of prior year income for sugar and bioenergy joint venture that was divested in the fourth quarter of 2024.
公司支出增加主要是因為收購了 Viterra 公司。其他業績成長主要反映了我們的自保保險計劃,但部分被2024年第四季剝離的糖業和生物能源合資企業上年1000萬美元的收入所抵消。
The interest expense of $176 million was up in the quarter compared to last year, reflecting the addition of Viterra, partially offset by lower average net interest rates.
本季利息支出為 1.76 億美元,較去年同期有所增加,這反映了 Viterra 的併入,但部分被較低的平均淨利率所抵消。
Let's turn to slide 6 where you can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past five years. The recent performance trends reflect less volatility due to more balanced global supply and demand environment, particularly in grains, and the impact of ongoing trade of biofuel uncertainty that has created a very spot transactional market environment.
讓我們翻到第 6 張投影片,您可以在這裡看到我們過去五年的調整後每股盈餘和息稅前利潤趨勢。近期業績趨勢反映出波動性降低,這得益於全球供需環境更加平衡,尤其是在糧食領域;此外,生物燃料貿易的不確定性持續存在,造成了現貨交易市場環境。
Slide 7 details or capital allocation. For the full year, we have generated just over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations. After allocating $485 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental, health and safety.
第 7 頁詳細介紹或資本配置。全年來看,我們透過營運獲得的調整後資金略高於 17 億美元。在撥款 4.85 億美元用於維持資本支出之後,其中包括維護、環境、健康和安全。
We had approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available. We paid $459 million in dividends and invested approximately $1.2 billion in growth and productivity related CapEx. Even approximately $1.2 billion of cash proceeds from the sale of a variety of assets and businesses. And we also repurchased 6.7 million Bundy shares for $551 million. This resulted in $173 million of retained cash flow.
我們當時大約有12.5億美元的可支配現金流。我們支付了 4.59 億美元的股息,並投資了約 12 億美元用於與成長和生產力相關的資本支出。甚至還有約 12 億美元的現金收益來自出售各種資產和業務。此外,我們也斥資 5.51 億美元回購了 670 萬股 Bundy 股票。這帶來了 1.73 億美元的留存現金流。
Moving to Slide 8. At year-end net debt, excluding readily marketable inventories, or RMI, was approximately $700 million.
切換到第 8 張投影片。截至年底,不包括易於銷售的存貨(RMI)的淨債務約為 7 億美元。
Recent change versus history reflects the impact of the acquisition debt assumed and issued related to Viterra. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter.
與歷史相比,近期的變化反映了收購 Viterra 所承擔和發行的債務的影響。截至第四季末,我們調整後的槓桿率(反映我們調整後的淨負債與調整後的 EBITDA 比率)為 1.9 倍。
Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position, which remains strong. At year-end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $9.7 billion, of which approximately $9 billion was unused and available, providing ample liquidity to manage the ongoing capital needs of our larger combined company.
第 9 張投影片重點介紹了我們的流動性狀況,目前我們的流動性依然強勁。截至年底,我們已承諾的信貸額度約為 97 億美元,其中約 90 億美元尚未使用且可用,為我們合併後規模更大的公司提供了充足的流動性,以滿足其持續的資本需求。
Please turn to Slide 10.
請翻到第10頁投影片。
For the trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 8.1% and ROIC was 6.9%. Adjusting for construction and progress on our large multiyear projects and excess cash on our balance sheet, our adjusted ROIC would increase to 9.3% and ROIC to 7.5%.
過去 12 個月的調整後 ROIC 為 8.1%,ROIC 為 6.9%。考慮到我們大型多年專案的建造和進度以及資產負債表上的超額現金,我們調整後的 ROIC 將增至 9.3%,ROIC 將增至 7.5%。
As a reminder, from last quarter, we decreased both our weighted average cost of capital and adjusted weighted average cost of capital from 7% and 7.7%, respectively, to 6% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting the recent upgrade in our credit rating, change in capital structure of the combined company and lower interest rate environment. Importantly, we're not lowering our long-term investment return expectations.
提醒一下,從上個季度開始,我們將加權平均資本成本和調整後的加權平均資本成本分別從 7% 和 7.7% 下調至 6% 和 6.7%,這反映了我們信用評級的近期提升、合併後公司資本結構的變化以及較低的利率環境。重要的是,我們並沒有降低對長期投資回報的預期。
Moving to Slide 11.
切換到第11張投影片。
For the year, we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $1.25 billion, similar to the prior year, and a cash flow yield or yield or cash return on equity of 9.4% compared to our cost of equity of 7.2%.
本年度,我們產生了約 12.5 億美元的自由支配現金流,與前一年類似,現金流收益率或權益現金回報率為 9.4%,而我們的權益成本為 7.2%。
Please turn to Slide 12 and our 2026 outlook. Taking into account the current margin and macro environment of forward curves, we forecast full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50 to $8. As Greg mentioned in his remarks, the environment remains complex, with limited forward visibility, particularly related to U.S. biofuel policy.
請翻到第 12 頁,了解我們對 2026 年的展望。考慮到目前遠期曲線的利潤率和宏觀環境,我們預測 2026 年全年調整後每股盈餘將在 7.50 美元至 8 美元之間。正如格雷格在演講中提到的那樣,環境仍然複雜,前景不明朗,尤其是在美國生物燃料政策方面。
As a result, we believe the curves do not properly reflect what opportunities should develop during the year once the policy is finalized. Additionally, we expect the filing for 2026, an adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 23% to 27%, net interest expense in the range of $575 million to $625 million, capital expenditures in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion and depreciation and amortization of approximately $975 million.
因此,我們認為這些曲線並不能正確反映政策最終確定後,一年內應該出現哪些機會。此外,我們預期 2026 年的申報中,調整後的年度有效稅率在 23% 至 27% 之間,淨利息支出在 5.75 億美元至 6.25 億美元之間,資本支出在 15 億美元至 17 億美元之間,折舊和攤銷約為 9.75 億美元。
With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.
接下來,我將把發言權交還給格雷格,讓他做一些總結性發言。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, John. So before we go to Q&A, I want to stop for a few thoughts. Through our disciplined execution, portfolio optimization and strategic investment, we've reshaped this company into a more agile, diversified and resilient Bunge.
謝謝你,約翰。在進入問答環節之前,我想先分享幾點想法。透過嚴謹的執行、投資組合優化和策略性投資,我們將這家公司重塑為一個更敏捷、多元化和更具韌性的邦吉公司。
We've overcome multiple obstacles, including geopolitical shifts that continue to reshape global trade flows. Yet through all of that, our team has executed, adapted and delivered.
我們克服了多重障礙,包括不斷重塑全球貿易格局的地緣政治變化。然而,即便麵臨重重困難,我們的團隊依然執行到位、靈活應變並最終交付了成果。
Those experiences only strengthened our confidence in our ability to succeed going forward. With the addition of Viterra, we now have greater reach across origins and destinations, deeper insight into global flows and more capability and optionality to serve customers and manage risk.
這些經驗只會增強我們對未來成功的信心。透過收購 Viterra,我們現在在始發地和目的地方面擁有更廣泛的覆蓋範圍,對全球流動有更深入的了解,並且擁有更大的能力和更多的選擇來服務客戶和管理風險。
We're still on a transformation journey, and continuous improvement is part of who we are. At the same time, our Bunge team is operating from a position of greater strength than at any point in our history. We've never been in a better position, we've never been more needed and we've never been more prepared.
我們仍在轉型之旅中,持續改善是我們企業文化的一部分。同時,我們的邦吉團隊正處於公司歷史上最強大的時期。我們從未處於如此有利的位置,從未如此被需要,也從未如此準備充分。
Thanks to our people and the global infrastructure we operate, and we look forward to sharing more on the opportunities ahead of us at our Investor Day on March 10.
感謝我們的員工和我們營運的全球基礎設施,我們期待在 3 月 10 日的投資者日上與大家分享更多未來的機會。
In the meantime, I'll close by saying, as we look ahead, I'm confident that capabilities that we've built will allow us to deliver value in any environment while continuing to connect farmers to the markets to sustain communities and feed the world. With that, we'll turn to Q&A.
最後,展望未來,我相信我們所建立的能力將使我們能夠在任何環境下創造價值,同時繼續將農民與市場聯繫起來,以維持社區發展並為世界提供糧食。接下來,我們將進入問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions).
(操作說明)
Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.
湯姆‧帕爾默,摩根大通。
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Thank you and good morning, Greg and John. I know that your guidance does not take a view on how industry conditions might change. But I had a couple of questions here. One, I wonder to what extent you think the RVO might be reflected in the curve today? And then when we see Board crush margins moving higher over the past month or so has this had much impact on the margins that you are able to capture in your crush operations up to this point?
謝謝,格雷格和約翰,早安。我知道你們的指導意見並未考慮產業狀況可能發生的變化。但我這裡還有幾個問題。第一,我想知道您認為 RVO 在多大程度上反映在今天的曲線中?然後,我們看到過去一個月左右板條壓榨利潤率有所上升,這是否對您迄今為止在壓榨業務中能夠獲得的利潤率產生了很大影響?
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. I'll start on that, John. So Yes, you're correct. Our outlook, we did not put any assumptions about what the RVO would do to the curves over the profitability beyond what the curves are already showing. Now as you called out, we've definitely seen the U.S. curve, especially in the second half, right, improve a little bit.
當然。約翰,我來著。是的,你說得對。展望未來,我們沒有對 RVO 對獲利能力曲線的影響做出任何假設,也沒有對曲線已經顯示的獲利能力做出任何假設。正如你所說,我們確實看到美國的疫情曲線,尤其是在下半年,有所改善,對吧。
We think those probably driven by RVO tailwind expectations. Now that being said, there's not much business done beyond Q1 right now that we're still pretty open on the balance of the year. And then the other feature, I think you've got pretty high oil stocks in the U.S. until we see that demand come on, which is a little different than the rest of the world where the oil S&Ds are pretty balanced.
我們認為這些因素可能受到RVO順風預期的影響。話雖如此,目前除了第一季之外,還沒有太多業務進展,因此我們對今年剩餘時間的前景仍然持開放態度。另一方面,我認為美國的石油庫存相當高,直到需求出現才會回升,這與世界其他地區略有不同,世界其他地區的石油供需基本平衡。
And that could get cleaned up pretty quickly should we get the RVO enacted. But the actual details are important and the timing is important. So we all wait, but to stay consistent, we just gave the forecast on what we can see today and what the curves are today.
如果 RVO 法案得以實施,這個問題就能很快解決。但具體細節和時機都很重要。所以我們都在等待,但為了保持一致性,我們只是根據今天的情況和今天的曲線給出了預測。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yes. Maybe just to add, Tom, that on top, oil has certainly been up and down based on market expectations, but we've seen good steady demand for soybean meal. I think that's a global phenomenon, but in the U.S. as well, soybean demand has been strong. So that's at least helping from a crush perspective.
是的。湯姆,或許我還要補充一點,石油價格肯定會根據市場預期而波動,但我們看到豆粕的需求一直保持良好穩定。我認為這是全球現象,但在美國,大豆需求也一直很強大。所以至少從暗戀的角度來看,這很有幫助。
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Understood, thank you. I had a question just on the cadence for the year. I think historically, earnings have been a bit more weighted to the second half of the year than the first half, but the composition of the business has obviously changed quite a bit here.
明白了,謝謝。我有一個關於年度節奏的問題。我認為從歷史數據來看,盈利更多地集中在下半年而不是上半年,但顯然,這裡的業務組成已經發生了很大的變化。
So any thoughts on both kind of the earnings cadence as we think about this year, and to what extent that might be reflective of what normal seasonality might look like in the business as we look forward?
那麼,在展望今年時,您對兩種獲利節奏有何看法?而這種節奏在多大程度上能夠反映出我們未來業務中正常的季節性變化?
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. Tom, I think how we're looking at this year, and I don't know that this is necessarily going to be indicative of the future, but just given where the forward curves sit today, we're looking at a first half, second half way to more like a 30-70 this year, which is a little lighter first half than maybe what we typically see. And then even on the Q1, Q2, we're looking at a 35-65 type split.
是的。湯姆,我認為我們目前對今年的展望,雖然我不確定這是否一定預示著未來,但就目前預測曲線的情況來看,我們預計今年上半年和下半年的收支情況會更接近 30-70,這比我們通常看到的上半年要輕鬆一些。即使在第一季和第二季度,我們也看到了 35-65 的比例。
So absent the impact of RVO change in Q1, really, we're going to be, through the end of Q1 by the time that probably gets resolved pretty light Q1, so 35-65 first half and 30-70 for the full year.
因此,如果不考慮第一季 RVO 變化的影響,到第一季末,到那時 RVO 問題可能已經解決,第一季業績將會比較疲軟,上半年業績預計為 35-65,全年業績預計為 30-70。
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Tom Palmer - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.
Heather Jones,Heather Jones 研究公司。
Heather Jones - Analyst
Heather Jones - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for the question, all I just wanted to just clarify one thing on the guidance. So typically, you guys use the forward term to set your guidance and adjust that based on what you're seeing in the physical markets.
早安.感謝你的提問,我只是想澄清指南中的一點。所以通常情況下,你們會使用遠期合約來設定指導方針,並根據你們在現貨市場看到的情況進行調整。
Is that any different? Did you do anything different this time? Like just did you just take the curves and then make adjustments for what you're seeing as far as spaces, et cetera? Or I just wanted to clarify that.
這有什麼不同嗎?你這次有沒有採取什麼不同的做法?你是直接取曲線,然後根據你看到的實際情況(例如間距等等)進行調整嗎?或者我只是想澄清一下。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, Heather, thanks for the question. Yes, we're a little boring in our consistency. So yes, we use the exact same approach that we've been because we just think that makes it easier to understand how we come at this each quarter. But.
是的,希瑟,謝謝你的提問。是的,我們在穩定性方面確實有點乏味。是的,我們沿用了先前的方法,因為我們認為這樣更容易理解我們每季是如何開展工作的。但。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
And I would just say it's -- right now, obviously, we would expect once the RVO was finalized for the conditions to improve, that some of the dynamics we're waiting to hear are obviously, finalization reallocation, the compliance years, are they going to a retroactive 2026 to the first of the year when it's going to actually get finalized to start taking effect.
我只想說——目前,顯然,我們預計一旦 RVO 最終確定,情況就會有所改善,我們正在等待聽到的一些動態顯然是最終確定後的重新分配、合規年份,它們是否會追溯到 2026 年,也就是它最終確定並開始生效的那一年的年初。
So there's still some unknowns there until it actually gets codified. So rather than try to guess on all that, we just take the curves away they are and let the market do its work.
所以,在正式編纂成法典之前,仍然存在一些未知數。所以,與其猜測這一切,我們不如直接忽略這些曲線,讓市場自行發揮作用。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And in a perfect world, we'd get some clarity ahead of our Investor Day on March 10, but fingers crossed.
理想情況下,我們希望在 3 月 10 日的投資者日之前能得到一些明確的消息,但願如此。
Heather Jones - Analyst
Heather Jones - Analyst
Then a big picture question. So since '22, '23, trade lanes has shifted. You don't have the disruption you had then. You've had quite a bit of crush capacity added in North America and South America. But you have more constructive biofuel policy in Indonesia, Brazil, Europe.
那麼,接下來要問一個更宏觀的問題。所以自 2022 年、2023 年以來,貿易路線已經改變了。你現在不會再遇到當時那種混亂局面了。北美和南美地區已經增加了相當多的壓榨能力。但是,印尼、巴西和歐洲的生物燃料政策更具建設性。
And if this is anything -- if the U.S. is anything like it in telegraphed, it's going to be much more constructive in the U.S. So putting all that together, increased capacity, but much greater demand. Do you envision a scenario where crush margins, both soft and soy, could replicate what we saw in the '22, '23 time frame? I know there are a lot of what if, but just would love to get your thoughts on a scenario like that.
如果這預示著什麼——如果美國的情況與此類似,那麼在美國,情況將會更加積極。綜上所述,產能增加,但需求也更大。您是否設想過,軟玉米和豆粕的壓榨利潤率能夠重現我們在 2022 年、2023 年看到的水平?我知道有很多假設,但我很想聽聽你對這種情況的看法。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. no, you've called out a lot of the key things that we're seeing. There's no doubt, as John said, the takeaway on meal globally has been better than everyone expected. Part of that, I think, continues to be the growth we're seeing in protein demand, especially in chicken and the growth there. On the biofuel policy, no, you're exactly right.
是的,你說的很多關鍵點都正是我們看到的。正如約翰所說,毫無疑問,全球外送市場的反應比所有人預期的要好。我認為,部分原因在於我們看到蛋白質需求持續成長,尤其是雞肉需求的成長。關於生物燃料政策,不,你的說法完全正確。
There are things happening kind of everywhere, whether it's the B15 in Brazil and eventually going to B16 later this year. We think Indonesia as policy, they've shown the ability to continue to make changes there to adapt, what we're seeing in Germany on the [under three] and then, of course, our own biofuel policy here. But I think what you're seeing is that governments understand the biofuel policy, it's good for the farming community.
到處都在發生各種各樣的事情,例如巴西的 B15 賽事,以及今年稍後即將開始的 B16 賽事。我們認為,印尼的政策已經展現出持續做出改變以適應變化的能力,這與我們在德國看到的[三歲以下兒童]政策以及我們自己的生物燃料政策類似。但我認為,你所看到的是各國政府理解生物燃料政策,這對農業社區有好處。
It's good for all those communities that value, that starts at the farm gate then moves through the value chain. So I think we expect biofuel policy to continue to be constructive as far as comparing back to certain years.
這對那些重視價值的社區來說是好事,價值從農場開始,然後沿著價值鏈傳遞下去。因此,我認為我們預期生物燃料政策將繼續保持建設性,與過去幾年相比,這種趨勢將會更加明顯。
I don't know that I could make that exact call today, but I think we feel it's definitely constructive. What we do like, and you ask about soft, is we have a much more balanced footprint globally, not only in soy, but in soft, and we've added a larger percentage of soft crush now. And of course, that is definitely favorable with the oil demand, and that will favor soft crush going forward. So we think our more balanced footprint there will be helpful, for sure.
我不知道今天我是否能做出確切的判斷,但我認為我們都覺得這絕對是有建設性的。我們喜歡的一點,你問到軟豆方面,是我們在全球範圍內擁有更加均衡的足跡,不僅在大豆方面,而且在軟豆方面也是如此,而且我們現在增加了更大比例的軟豆壓榨。當然,這對石油需求來說絕對是有利的,而且這將有利於軟壓榨製程的未來發展。所以我們認為,我們在那裡更加均衡的投資佈局肯定會有幫助。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, I might just add on, Heather. The other thing is we haven't really seen any global -- meaningful global disruption, whether it's weather or geopolitical here for a bit. I mean there's been obviously the trade issues in China, but when you really think about a big shock to the global system, there really hasn't been one for a while. And a weather event could really have a big impact. And given our global footprint going forward, I think we feel like we're positioned as good or better than anyone to handle that.
是的,我可能還要補充一點,希瑟。另一點是,我們已經有一段時間沒有看到任何真正意義上的全球動盪,無論是天氣還是地緣政治方面。我的意思是,中國確實存在貿易問題,但如果你仔細想想全球體系會遭受怎樣的重大衝擊,你會發現已經很久沒有發生過這樣的事情了。而一場極端天氣事件確實可能產生重大影響。鑑於我們未來的全球佈局,我認為我們有能力應對這種情況,甚至比任何人都做得更好。
Heather Jones - Analyst
Heather Jones - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Andrew Strelzik, BMO.
Andrew Strelzik,BMO。
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I had a couple of things. The first one, just from an operational perspective, I was hoping that you could maybe compare the Viterra operations kind of at the time of the acquisition to when you guys took over the Bunge business.
嘿,早安。感謝您回答這個問題。我帶了兩樣東西。第一個問題,僅從營運角度來看,我希望您能將 Viterra 在收購時的營運情況與您們接管 Bunge 業務時的營運情況進行比較。
And I guess where I'm coming from is, I'm just curious if you see similar opportunities to kind of transform the earnings power of the Viterra piece separate of the synergies through internal operations as has been the case of Bunge, or if there are any meaningful differences that you've observed?
我想問的是,您是否認為 Viterra 也有機會像 Bunge 一樣,透過內部營運(而非協同效應)來提升其獲利能力?或您觀察到任何實質的差異?
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'd say the answer is yes. It was one of the things I think both companies were excited about coming together and doing the deal where that best and better practices. And as we're able to share that, it starts everywhere from the safety of our people as we brought the safety programs together and relaunched the combined safety program on the best and better practices.
我認為答案是肯定的。我認為這是兩家公司都感到興奮並願意攜手合作完成這筆交易的原因之一,因為這能帶來最佳實踐和更佳實踐。而當我們能夠分享這些資訊時,一切都從保障員工安全開始,我們將安全計畫整合起來,並根據最佳實踐重新推出了聯合安全計畫。
And definitely, there is a bit of a replay of what we did in 2019 when we joined Bunge. We're now looking at the combined portfolio and making sure that we're running the right assets and the right businesses where we have a right to win for the long term.
當然,這有點像我們在 2019 年加入邦吉時所做的事情的重演。我們現在正在審視合併後的投資組合,確保我們經營的是合適的資產和業務,這樣我們才有理由在長期內取得成功。
All the capital allocation is done from the center, and that's healthy for the teams to compete for that capital. Aligning the rewards programs and staying focused externally on our customers at both ends of the value chain and being able to do that from that global diversified balance that we now have across crops, across geographies and across origination as well as crush and distribution.
所有資金分配都由中央統一進行,這有利於各隊競爭資金。調整獎勵計劃,並始終關注價值鏈兩端的客戶,而我們能夠做到這一點,得益於我們目前在全球作物、地理、產地、壓榨和分銷方面所擁有的多元化平衡。
We've got more capillarity and granularity at origination and destination than we've ever had. And ultimately, you wrap all that in a risk culture. And I do think Bunge, when we joined had, incredible capabilities as does Viterra.
我們在始發地和目的地都擁有了前所未有的更豐富的資源和更精細的粒度。最終,這一切都被包裹在風險文化中。而且我認為,當我們加入邦吉時,它和維特拉一樣,都擁有令人難以置信的能力。
And it's been great that our teams did a ton of work pre close, and we hit the ground running on day one with one view of our global positions for the people to make decisions with. The teams have embraced the culture.
令人欣慰的是,我們的團隊在交易完成前做了大量工作,讓我們在第一天就迅速進入狀態,為決策者提供了一個清晰的全球財務狀況視圖。各隊都已接受這種文化。
They understand how the risk teams and the commercial teams work together in order to help manage the earnings at risk and run our assets at high capacity utilizations and help our customers manage their risk. And I'll tell you, in this environment, that is really needed now and that has real value, and that's the one that continues to pay benefits over and over.
他們了解風險團隊和商業團隊如何協同工作,以幫助管理風險收益,以高產能利用率運行我們的資產,並幫助我們的客戶管理風險。我告訴你,在當前的環境下,這正是我們現在真正需要的,它具有真正的價值,而且它能夠持續地帶來利益。
So Look, we're getting started. We've got a lot to do, but we really like the way the teams are engaging and working together here early on. And you're right. We've done a lot of this before, so it's just about doing the work.
好了,我們開始了。我們有很多工作要做,但我們非常喜歡各個團隊在初期階段的積極參與和合作方式。你說得對。我們以前做過很多這樣的事情,所以現在只是在認真工作而已。
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Okay. Great. That was super helpful. And I apologize if I missed this, but can you share what you're assuming in '26 in the guidance for synergies on the cost and commercial side, and maybe how we should think about that phasing in within that the kind of split you gave for EPS through the year?
好的。偉大的。那真是太有幫助了。如果我錯過了這一點,我深表歉意,但您能否分享一下您對 2026 年成本和商業方面協同效應的預期,以及我們應該如何考慮在您給出的全年每股收益拆分方案中逐步實現這些協同效應?
Thank you.
謝謝。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, Andrew, this is John. So I would say on the cost side, which is what we've got baked into our forecast primarily, we're feeling very good about where we are. We're estimating about $190 million of realized synergies in 2026, which is actually ahead of schedule. When we look at what we laid out at the time we filed our proxy, laid out our expectations about synergies, we expected a second year full year about $175 million roughly. We're actually going to do better than that in six months earlier.
是的,安德魯,我是約翰。所以,就成本方面而言(這也是我們預測中主要考慮的因素),我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們預計到 2026 年將實現約 1.9 億美元的協同效應,這實際上比原計劃提前了。當我們回顧我們在提交委託書時提出的內容,以及我們對協同效應的預期時,我們預計第二年全年收入約為 1.75 億美元。實際上,我們會在六個月前做得更好。
So we've taken a lot -- we took some action ahead of close and actually started getting the organization structured and ready for the close of the transaction. So we have a bit of a head start coming into the close.
所以我們做了很多事——我們在交易完成前採取了一些行動,實際上已經開始建立組織架構,為交易完成做好準備。所以我們在接近尾聲時稍微領先了一點。
And in 2025 and prior, we realized a little over $70 million of synergy already by the end of 2025. And so we're looking at $190 million for next year, for 2026 year we're in now, with the run rate by the end of the year, somewhere around $220 million run rate by the end of the year. So we feel very good about that. Of course, at $190 million is baked into our forecast. On the commercial side, I think that's still developing.
到 2025 年底,我們在 2025 年及之前實現了略高於 7,000 萬美元的綜效。因此,我們預計明年(也就是我們現在所處的 2026 年)的營收將達到 1.9 億美元,到年底的運行率將達到 2.2 億美元左右。所以我們對這一點感到非常滿意。當然,1.9億美元的數字已經包含在我們的預測中。在商業方面,我認為這方面仍在發展中。
We've got line of sight to a lot of good things. But like anything, those ones are a little more difficult to quantify individually. But I would say, a relatively modest amount of synergy baked into the forecast on the commercial side.
我們能看到很多美好的事物。但和任何事物一樣,這些因素很難單獨量化。但我認為,商業方面的預測已經包含了相對適度的綜效。
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Andrew Strelzik - Analyst
Great, thank you very much.
太好了,非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.
薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾,美國銀行。
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
So I want to start a little bit with the synergy question. If I heard correctly, you said, this year, we expect to realize $190 million or $90 million?
所以我想先簡單談談綜效的問題。如果我沒聽錯的話,您說,今年我們預計能實現 1.9 億美元或 9,000 萬美元的收入?
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
$190 million.
190美元百萬。
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
So I guess this biases is around $0.70 or $0.75 in EPS year-on-year growth. So how is the guidance, I guess, on the low end and, frankly, even adjusting for the dividend, even on the high end, lower year-on-year. It seems a little bit counterintuitive since even without the RVOs, the operating environment seems to have been a little bit better for commodities trading for biofuels. So does this imply essentially a material decline year-on-year before the synergies? And why would that be the case?
所以我認為這種偏差會導致每股收益年增約 0.70 或 0.75 美元。所以,業績指引如何呢?我猜,低端指引,坦白說,即使考慮到股息,高端指引比去年同期下降。這似乎有點違反直覺,因為即使沒有 RVO,生物燃料大宗商品交易的經營環境似乎也稍微好一點。那麼,這是否意味著在綜效實現之前,業績將會出現實質的逐年下滑?為什麼會這樣呢?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, a little bit trouble hearing you. But I would look at it this way. We're going to have -- with the full year of Viterra, obviously, we have a full year impact of share -- outstanding shares. We have full year interest cost, full year of depreciation, some of those impacts, obviously.
是的,我聽不太清楚你說話。但我會這樣看待這個問題。我們將擁有——隨著 Viterra 全年業績的公佈,顯然,我們將對全年的股份產生影響——流通股數量。我們有全年的利息成本、全年的折舊,這些影響顯然都會產生。
And I would say parts of the business that are yet to be performing as well as I think they could around grains and the merchandising business, I think going forward, we still have work to do there.
我認為,在穀物和商品銷售業務方面,還有一些業務板塊的表現尚未達到應有的水平,展望未來,我們仍需在這方面努力。
But overall, I think, again, we're using the forward curves as they stand today, and I think that getting some clarity there and some upside, there will be some opportunity. But at this point, that's how we're seeing it.
但總的來說,我認為,我們目前仍在使用遠期曲線,我認為,如果能更清晰地了解情況並看到一些上漲空間,就會有一些機會。但就目前而言,我們就是這麼看的。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And of that $190 million synergy if you look versus '25, there's $120 million incremental. We did about $70 million in '25. So for your modeling, it's $120 million incremental in '26.
如果與 2025 年相比,這 1.9 億美元的綜效中有 1.2 億美元是新增的。我們在2025年賺了大約7000萬美元。所以,根據你的模型,2026 年將增加 1.2 億美元。
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
Salvator Tiano - Analyst
Okay. Perfect. So that's extremely helpful. And the other thing I want to ask is a little bit about the cadence you provided earlier. It seems to us that it's implying kind of $0.80 in Q1, $1.50 in Q2 and then around $2.70 in the second half.
好的。完美的。這非常有幫助。我還想問一下關於你之前提到的節奏的問題。我們認為這意味著第一季約為 0.80 美元,第二季約為 1.50 美元,然後下半年約為 2.70 美元。
So my two questions are, firstly, $0.80 in Q1 that will be probably the lowest EPS figure in a long time. And theoretically, the idea is that the markets are a little bit better than they were at the trough of last year, get EPS much lower. So are there any specific items or segments that may be affected by timing, something that is pushing earnings away from Q1?
所以我的兩個問題是,首先,第一季每股收益為 0.80 美元,這可能是很長一段時間以來的最低每股收益。理論上講,市場狀況比去年低谷時略有好轉,因此每股收益會大幅下降。那麼,是否有任何特定項目或板塊可能會受到時間因素的影響,從而導致第一季的獲利延遲?
And the second part of the question is, if we're not really assuming a major improvement in the forward curves in the guidance, how are we getting to around $2.70 EPS in the second half in each of the quarters? And if the RBOs come, are we talking about $3.50 more even $4 at some point in quarterly EPS?
問題的第二部分是,如果我們沒有真正假設業績指引中的遠期曲線會有重大改善,那麼我們如何在每個季度的下半年實現約 2.70 美元的每股盈餘?如果 RBO 到位,我們是不是在討論季度 EPS 增加 3.50 美元甚至 4 美元?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I think if you look -- you're really close on, obviously, the first half kind of the breakdown there in terms of per quarter. And then the second half, I think we're looking at about a 40-60 on the second half at this point, but it's still a bit early. So a little difficult to predict that. But I think, look, a lot can happen.
是的。我認為如果你仔細觀察——很明顯,你對上半年的季度細分數據非常接近實際情況。至於下半場,我認為目前來看,下半場的勝負可能在 40% 到 60% 之間,但現在下結論還為時過早。所以有點難以預測。但我覺得,你看,很多事情都可能發生。
A lot of Q1 is baked already. We're a month -- more than a month into Q1. I think that we're off to an okay start. But again, when biofuel policy gets resolved, Q1 is going to have largely been completed. And so we're hopeful that it's going to provide us some upside here as we look through the balance of the year.
第一季的大部分工作已經完成了。第一季已經過去一個月多了。我認為我們開局還不錯。但是,當生物燃料政策得到解決時,第一季基本上就完成了。因此,我們希望它能在今年餘下的時間裡為我們帶來一些好處。
But yes, Q1 is a really light quarter. We're a much bigger company and -- but a lot of uncertainty in what we found, what we've seen really second half of '25 and especially into Q1 of '26 is very spot customers on both ends. Farmers are spot. Our customers are very spot, and it just creates less opportunity for us.
但沒錯,第一季確實是業務比較清淡的一個季度。我們是一家規模較大的公司,但我們發現,在 2025 年下半年,尤其是在 2026 年第一季度,存在著許多不確定性,兩端的客戶都非常零散。農民們零散分佈。我們的客戶非常挑剔,反而減少了我們的機會。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
And if you look -- and I'd say, if you look kind of coming out of Q4, you've got on soy, you've got average margins are down in Q1 versus Q4, in soft, you've got crush margins down kind of seasonally versus Q4. And then you say, well, kind of how do you come out of Q4? One, you got to thank the team for really executing very well in a quarter where you had really no market catalysts, heavy stocks.
如果你看一下——我想說,如果你看一下第四季度的情況,你會發現大豆的平均利潤率在第一季度比第四季度有所下降,軟豆的壓榨利潤率也因季節性因素而比第四季度有所下降。然後你會問,那麼,你如何走出第四季?首先,你要感謝團隊在這樣一個季度裡執行得非常出色,因為當時市場沒有任何利多因素,股票市場也很疲軟。
You've got the uncertainty around the bio and trade policy. So I think what we saw there is the team executed very well. Even though with ample supplies, farmers don't want to sell to lower prices, and your feed and food customers and fuel customers haven't needed to buy because they've been rewarded for waiting. So that environment is definitely carrying over into Q1.
生物技術和貿易政策方面存在不確定性。所以我覺得我們看到的是,團隊執行得非常好。即使供應充足,農民也不願降價出售,而您的飼料、食品和燃料客戶也因為等待而獲得了回報,所以無需購買。因此,這種環境肯定會延續到第一季。
Now that being said, as in Q4, I think there's opportunities there that the team will execute well against it. The other kind of feature is the Australian harvest was delayed somewhat by weather that's now definitely an important feature of us.
話雖如此,就像第四季一樣,我認為球隊有機會很好地把握住這些機會。另一個特點是,澳洲的收成因為天氣原因而延遲,這現在肯定是我們的一個重要特點。
And that's sliding some of that from Q4 into Q1, but it also has brought margins down a little bit the way that, that harvest is developing and the demand is developing. So those are kind of some of the features.
這導致部分訂單從第四季度提前到第一季度,但隨著收成和需求的增長,利潤率也略有下降。以上就是它的一些功能特色。
Operator
Operator
Benjamin Theurer, Barclays.
本傑明·圖勒,巴克萊銀行。
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
One on green handling actually. Just to help us understand because green merchandising, it used to be not as relevant, but now with Viterra, it starts become a little more of a heavy weight as well. So how should we think about the current conditions, right? 2025 was a lot of uncertainty with trade and the conflict between U.S. China, et cetera.
實際上,這是關於綠色操控的一點。為了幫助我們理解,綠色商品化以前並不那麼重要,但現在隨著 Viterra 的出現,它也開始變得越來越重要了。那我們該如何看待當前的情況呢?2025 年充滿了不確定性,貿易以及美中衝突等等。
So as you look through the opportunities in the business and the combined business and we talk about the merchandising, maybe ocean freight, et cetera, how should we think about the 2026 set up here?
因此,當我們審視公司和合併後的業務機會,並討論商品銷售、海運等事宜時,我們該如何看待 2026 年的發展格局?
And what's like kind of like a level of disruption or activity that you need in this business to really make the most out of the larger footprint that you're having?
在這個產業裡,你需要達到怎樣的顛覆性創新或活動水平,才能真正充分利用你所擁有的更大影響力?
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. I start by reminding us, right? We've got six months under our belt running it together. So this -- we're looking forward to the first half is a very seasonal business, we'll get to see Q1 and Q2 with the combined platform, and then we'll start lapping the time that we ran together in the second half of last year. So look, the teams are continuing to adjust and do the scenario analysis for a number of things that can happen.
是的。我先提醒大家一下,對吧?我們一起經營這個計畫已經有六個月的經驗了。所以,我們期待上半年的業務,這是一個非常具有季節性的業務,我們將看到合併平台的第一季和第二季度,然後我們將開始超越去年下半年我們一起運營的時間。所以你看,各隊都在不斷調整,並對可能發生的各種情況進行情境分析。
But there is that important baseload business, right, serving customers every day. We've got the geographical balance. We should have the absolute best cost position to be there with the right product, the right quantity, the right quality at the right price.
但是,還有重要的基礎業務,對吧,那就是每天為客戶提供服務。我們在地理分佈上達到了平衡。我們應該擁有絕對最佳的成本優勢,以適當的價格提供合適的產品、適當的數量、適當的品質。
So we'll do that baseload business and then adjust to whatever disruptions. And we've already seen some of that where we've had to repair origins and destinations and where we actually had to develop some new destinations because of some of the trade disruption.
所以我們會先做好基礎業務,然後再根據任何突發情況進行調整。我們已經看到,由於貿易中斷,我們不得不修復一些始發地和目的地,甚至不得不開發一些新的目的地。
So I think that becomes standard part of the business. And as you called out as well, ocean freight, we've combined that group. We're a very large user of course, of the ocean freight. We're starting to see the benefits of that larger platform and some of that lowering the cost between origin destination and being able to react faster to change.
所以我認為這會成為業務的常規組成部分。正如您所提到的,海運業務,我們已經將其合併在一起。我們當然是海運的大用戶。我們開始看到這個更大平台帶來的好處,例如降低始發地到目的地之間的成本,以及能夠更快地應對變化。
So I think part of it is just getting the reps, getting to fewer systems and processes and having the teams continue to make those improvements.
所以我認為部分原因在於要多加練習,減少系統和流程,並讓團隊不斷改進。
So whatever the environment, we know it will improve eventually. But until it does, I know our team will get all of the benefit that we can out of it.
所以無論環境如何,我們都知道它最終都會改善。但在此之前,我知道我們的團隊將從中獲得我們所能獲得的所有好處。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
And Ben, maybe I'd just add, I mean, we -- for Q4, we only had a $30 million increase year-over-year in the segment. And I think as you look into 2026, you should see a better year-over-year improvement, especially in the first half, obviously, when we don't have the comps are against the prior Bunge only.
還有本,我可能還要補充一點,我的意思是,我們——第四季度,該業務板塊的同比增長只有 3000 萬美元。我認為展望 2026 年,應該會看到逐年改善,尤其是在上半年,顯然,那時我們沒有與之前的邦吉公司進行比較。
But even in the second half, we expect the comps to be better versus the combined company second half. So it's moving in the right direction. It's just -- that's the biggest part of Viterra's business.
但即便在下半年,我們也預期與公司合併後的下半年相比,業績會更好。所以,事情正朝著正確的方向發展。這——這正是 Viterra 業務的最大組成部分。
And while we are really, really pleased with how well the crush has folded in very quickly because we had a much larger crush footprint, so that folded in very nicely the network quickly.
我們對壓榨機能夠如此迅速地融入網路感到非常非常滿意,因為我們的壓榨機佔地面積更大,所以它能夠非常順利地融入網路。
We have a lot more people, a lot more assets, a lot more locations involved on the merchandising and handling side, and it's more work. But to Greg's point, we're doing the right things. We've got the teams focused. It's just going to take a little bit longer to get that humming.
我們在商品銷售和處理方面有更多的人員、更多的資產、更多的地點,工作量也更大。但正如格雷格所說,我們正在做正確的事。我們已經讓各團隊集中精神。還需要一段時間才能發出嗡嗡聲。
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
Okay. And then my second question real quick is CapEx, obviously, last year was, give or take, $1.7 billion, of which little more than $1.2 billion was for growth.
好的。那麼我的第二個問題就簡單問一下,資本支出方面,顯然,去年的資本支出約為 17 億美元,其中略多於 12 億美元用於成長。
The guidance you've issued for this year is more or less the same level, if we take the midpoint here, just a little bit lower. I suspect the sustaining CapEx goes a little bit up, but it's probably still going to be roughly $1 billion in growth investments.
如果取中間值,您今年發布的指導意見與往年大致相同,只是略低一些。我估計維持性資本支出會略有增加,但成長性投資可能仍將達到約 10 億美元。
So how should we think about the return on investments here or that $1 billion plus last year, probably another $1 billion this year.
那我們該如何看待這裡的投資報酬率呢?去年超過 10 億美元的投資,今年可能又將達到 10 億美元。
What's like the return you're expecting from that and especially the timing of those returns?
您預期能從中獲得多少回報?特別是回報的時間安排?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, let me start with -- maybe talk about the mega projects. So our spend on mega projects, so the 4 large capital projects that we've -- the multiyear projects, that spend is going to drop about $350 million in 2026 as we finish -- kind of get to the completion dates on the projects.
好的,那我就先從──或許可以談談那些大型計畫。因此,我們在大型項目上的支出,也就是我們擁有的 4 個大型資本項目——多年期項目,到 2026 年,隨著我們完成這些項目,支出將減少約 3.5 億美元。
So that leaves -- that's about six, call it, $600 million to $650 million on the mega projects that will be largely wrapped up by the end of the year. We really don't -- we have not modeled in really much, if any, contribution from those projects.
因此,還有大約 6 億至 6.5 億美元用於大型項目,這些項目將在年底前基本完工。我們實際上並沒有——我們幾乎沒有將這些項目的貢獻納入模型中。
So the Moorestown plant is in commissioning now. and we'll be running this year. Obviously, a lot of the time this year is going to be spent on qualifying the plant for our food customers. We will get some volume through there, but probably not high enough capacity utilization to have a meaningful contribution in '26. So we've not really added much in the forecast for that.
所以摩爾斯敦工廠目前正在調試中,我們將在今年投入營運。顯然,今年我們將花費大量時間來確保工廠符合我們食品客戶的要求。我們可以透過那裡獲得一些銷量,但產能利用率可能不夠高,無法在 2026 年做出有意義的貢獻。所以,我們並沒有對這方面的預測做太多調整。
And then our Destrehan barge unloading and crush plant expansion, remember the crush plans in the joint venture with Chevron. And then the barge unloading those will be up midyear. And of course, we're not -- we don't have a lot baked into the forecast on a contribution in '26 for those either.
還有我們的 Destrehan 駁船卸載和破碎廠擴建,還記得與雪佛龍合資的破碎計畫嗎?然後,卸貨的駁船將在年中抵達。當然,我們並沒有——我們對 2026 年的貢獻也沒有太多預期。
I think they'll really be contributing a lot more as we get into 2027. And then our -- the final project is the Wesson plant in Netherlands that will be up and running in, for the most part, early.
我認為到了 2027 年,他們將做出更大的貢獻。然後,我們的最後一個項目是位於荷蘭的韋森工廠,該工廠的大部分設施將在年初投入運作。
So not a lot of contribution from those in '26, but we should see a bump up in '27 relative to that spend.
因此,2026 年的貢獻並不多,但我們應該會在 2027 年看到相對於該支出的成長。
We've got also -- we've earmarked a few hundred million for other growth projects in '26 to round out the $1 billion rough number. Those haven't all been approved, and we'll review those as we go and may or may not decide to do those. But we've got that included in the forecast. That's why we have a range of [$1.5 billion to $1.7 billion If we did all of that, we'd be closer to $1.7 billion].
我們也——我們已經為 2026 年的其他成長項目預留了數億美元,以使總額達到 10 億美元左右。這些提議尚未全部獲得批准,我們將邊走邊審核,並可能決定是否採納。但我們已經將此因素納入預測之中。這就是為什麼我們有一系列[15億至17億美元。如果我們完成所有這些,我們將接近17億美元。 ]
If we choose not to do some of those projects, we'll be closer to [1.5 billion] and those, obviously, anything we're constructing during '26 likely wouldn't have a meaningful impact on '26 returns.
如果我們選擇不做其中一些項目,我們的目標金額將接近 15 億美元,而且顯然,我們在 2026 年建造的任何東西都可能不會對 2026 年的收益產生實質性的影響。
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
Benjamin Theurer - Analyst
Thank you very much
非常感謝
Operator
Operator
Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley
史蒂文‧海恩斯,摩根士丹利
Steven Haynes - Analyst
Steven Haynes - Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Lot's been covered. Maybe just another way on the guidance. I think in the past, you've provided some directional, I guess, guide by segment. I realize it's maybe a bit harder just given the first half of last year doesn't have Viterra it and this year has a full contribution.
嘿,早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。很多內容都已經涵蓋了。或許這只是指導意見的另一種表達方式。我認為過去您曾按部分提供了一些方向性的指導。我知道這可能有點難,因為去年上半年 Viterra 沒有參與,而今年 Viterra 則全額參與。
But is there a way that maybe you could frame by segment working back from the midpoint of your guide, like whatever adjusted EBIT is kind of assumed at that level? How you see that splitting out between each of your businesses this year? Thank you.
但是,有沒有辦法從指南的中點開始,按細分市場倒推,例如假設該層級的調整後 EBIT 是多少?您預計今年這些資金將如何分配給您旗下的各個業務部門?謝謝。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, so if you look -- Steve, this is John. If you look at kind of our core segment EBIT, so that's defined as a segment results before corporate, I'd look at it this way. About half that EBIT is going to be in our soy processing and refining, is how we're looking at it for the year, so call it 505, about one fourth of it in our soft processing and refining segment. And then grain merchandising and milling, we're forecasting to be around 20% of it, and then the remainder of the -- remaining 5% would be in our other process in refining.
是的,所以如果你看的話——史蒂夫,這位是約翰。如果你看一下我們核心業務板塊的息稅前利潤(EBIT),也就是公司業績之前的板塊業績,我會這樣看待它。我們預計今年的息稅前利潤大約一半將來自大豆加工和精煉業務,所以我們姑且稱之為 505,大約四分之一將來自軟加工和精煉業務。然後,我們預測糧食貿易和碾磨將占到 20% 左右,剩下的 5% 將用於我們的其他精煉工序。
That's kind of how we see the rough forecast for the year. And then, of course, offsetting that, to some degree, will be the Corporate and Other, which we would expect to be, call it, $120 million, $125 million per quarter negative against that.
這就是我們對今年的大致預測。當然,在某種程度上,企業和其他方面的支出將會抵消這部分收入,我們預計這部分支出每季將為負 1.2 億至 1.25 億美元。
Steven Haynes - Analyst
Steven Haynes - Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital.
德里克·惠特菲爾德,德州資本公司。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. With regard to the RVO, the administration has been quite supportive of the U.S. and farmers nearly at every turn. We have heard in recent weeks a range of 5.2 billion to 5.6 billion gallons per BPD volumes. I guess, where is your view on where the administration will land on absolute volumes, and the half regeneration concept for imported products and feedstocks?
早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。關於 RVO,本屆政府幾乎在每個方面都對美國和農民給予了相當大的支持。最近幾週,我們聽到的預測是每桶日產量為 52 億至 56 億加侖。我想,您認為政府在進口產品和原料的絕對數量以及半再生概念方面會採取什麼立場?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Derrick, this is John. I think on the 5.2 to 5.6, I don't know that we see where it's going to end up. Obviously, we prefer the 5.6 obviously, but we're hopeful they will at least start at the midpoint of the range and maybe go up from there, especially given that it appears pretty likely that the half we're in the 50% rent is not going to take effect in 2026.
德里克,我是約翰。我認為 5.2 到 5.6 這個區間,我們目前還無法確定最終會達到什麼水準。顯然,我們更喜歡 5.6,但我們希望他們至少能從該範圍的中間點開始,也許還能從那裡向上提高,尤其考慮到我們目前所處的 50% 租金政策很可能不會在 2026 年生效。
They're going to kick that can down the road to 2027 and make a decision then. So hopefully, given that decision, they'll move to the high side of this range of 5.2 to 5.6. But we don't -- obviously don't know yet and hoping here over the next few weeks to get some clarity.
他們會把這個問題延後到 2027 年再做決定。所以,鑑於這個決定,希望他們能將價格調整到5.2到5.6這個區間的上限。但我們顯然還不知道,希望在接下來的幾週內能得到一些明確的訊息。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
You deal at your crystal ball is rather on the five, six side. But maybe on a similar topic, I read in a recent trade article that Bunge was recognized as the first company certified soybeans for use in the production of soft under the CORSIA plus product call.
你根據水晶球所做的預測,傾向於五、六倍的預測。但或許與此類似的是,我最近在一篇行業文章中讀到,邦吉公司被公認為第一家根據 CORSIA plus 產品要求認證用於生產軟質食品的大豆公司。
To the degree that you can, could you speak to that market opportunity for Bunge from this development given the favorable price realization for staff over R&D and the tightness we're seeing a qualified feedstock for staff.
鑑於研發人員薪酬的有利實現以及合格員工人才短缺,您能否談談邦吉公司從這項發展中獲得的市場機會?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, look, I think we don't have anything baked into our forecast for that. So anything that develops during the year is going to be upside for us.
是的,你看,我認為我們的預測中並沒有考慮到這一點。所以,今年發生的任何事情對我們來說都是利好消息。
I think it's still a fairly nascent market, at least from the way we participated up to this point, but certainly is going to be incremental demand, it could be massive incremental demand if it really gets rolling. But we work a lot with the end fuel customers.
我認為這仍然是一個相當新興的市場,至少從我們目前的參與方式來看是這樣,但肯定會帶來增量需求,如果真的發展起來,增量需求可能會非常巨大。但我們與終端燃料客戶有許多合作。
We've got relationships with all the large fuel producers and those are produced jet fuel. So we're optimistic that as that gains some traction, we'll be right there to participate. But I would tell you in our 2026 numbers, we don't have anything meaningful baked in for that. So looking forward to seeing how it develops.
我們與所有大型燃料生產商都建立了合作關係,他們生產的是航空煤油。因此我們樂觀地認為,隨著這項技術獲得一些發展勢頭,我們將立即參與其中。但我可以告訴你,在我們 2026 年的預測數據中,我們並沒有任何有意義的因素考慮到這一點。非常期待看到它如何發展。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So we are focused on this. I mean, for the long term and one of the things that we've got with the partnership with Chevron and the partnership with Repsol and some of the other fuel customers, right? It's not only serving them with the current origination that we have, but now having the touch we do globally with more farmers than anyone else as we're working to develop some of these new novel seeds and cover crops, we'll have the ability to meet what their needs are for the long term, whether it's SAF or renewable diesel or traditional bio biodiesel. So really excited about the combined capabilities of the company and definitely want to be the partner of choice for the fuel industry.
所以我們現在專注於這件事。我的意思是,從長遠來看,我們與雪佛龍、雷普索爾以及其他一些燃料客戶建立了合作關係,對吧?我們不僅能用我們現有的產品為他們服務,而且現在,我們與全球比任何人都多的農民建立了聯繫,因為我們正在努力開發一些新的種子和覆蓋作物,我們將有能力滿足他們的長期需求,無論是可持續農業燃料 (SAF)、可再生柴油還是傳統的生物柴油。我對公司的綜合實力感到非常興奮,並且絕對希望成為燃料產業的首選合作夥伴。
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Derrick Whitfield - Analyst
Great, thank you.
太好了,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Blair, TPH.
Matthew Blair,TPH。
Matthew Blair - Analyst
Matthew Blair - Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. So for the $7.50 to $8 guide, you mentioned you're just taking the current futures curve. As we think about the spread there, the low end versus the high end, what determines that? Is that just based on Bunge's execution? What puts you at the low end of the guidance? What puts you at the high end?
謝謝您回答我的問題。所以對於 7.50 美元到 8 美元的指導價,你提到你只是採用了當前的期貨曲線。當我們思考價差,也就是低端與高端之間的價差時,是什麼決定了價差的大小?這只是基於邦吉公司的執行情況嗎?是什麼原因導致你處於指導標準的低端?是什麼讓你躋身高端行列?
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah. I'll start, John. I think how we see, the market continue to develop from a demand standpoint. We talked about the soy stocks are definitely heavy, but we have seen that's only in the U.S. Merchant milling, we'll see how, as we have that first half of the year running the combined footprint.
是的。我先來,約翰。我認為,從需求角度來看,市場將持續發展。我們討論過大豆庫存肯定很重,但我們看到這種情況只發生在美國。商業碾磨廠,我們將看看情況如何,因為我們今年上半年都在經營綜合業務。
And as the crops come off here in Australia, as some of the trade disruption that we've had, we really expect it to be not as complicated as last year.
隨著澳洲農作物收割,以及我們經歷的一些貿易中斷,我們預計今年的情況不會像去年那麼複雜。
That should be good for our merchandising segment. From an overall -- the other is just, we continue to work, not only on the cost synergies, as John said, kind of trying to deliver more and faster, and then the commercial synergies as we're on the front end as the teams work together.
這對我們的商品銷售部門來說應該是個好消息。從整體來看——另一方面,正如約翰所說,我們不僅要繼續努力實現成本協同效應,還要努力更快地交付更多產品,同時,隨著團隊在前期協同合作,我們也要努力實現商業協同效應。
As those plans continue to develop, those could continue to benefit us in the second half. So I think the combined platform, we've just got more levers to pull on both the cost as well as the margin side than we've ever had.
隨著這些計劃的不斷推進,它們可能會在下半年繼續使我們受益。所以我認為,透過這個合併後的平台,我們在成本和利潤方面都擁有了比以往更多的控製手段。
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
And I would just add, Matthew that, when you look at our soy and soft, we can use a forward curves for a majority of that business and so we feel like whether we agree with the curves or not, that's what we use and that, that's got a fairly decent level of specificity to it. And I would just add, Matthew, that when you look at our soy and soft, we can use the forward curves for a majority of that business. And so we feel like whether we agree with the curves or not, that's what we use, and that's got a fairly decent level of specificity to it. But when you get to the merchandising and milling side, there are no forward curves. And so what the environment is going to be like. I think if we continue on with a global heavy stock spot customers, not a lot of opportunity in that market, it's going to be a little bit tougher.
我還要補充一點,馬修,當我們查看我們的豆製品和軟製品時,我們可以對大部分業務使用遠期曲線,所以我們覺得,無論我們是否同意這些曲線,我們都會使用它,而且它具有相當不錯的精確度。我還要補充一點,馬修,當你查看我們的大豆和軟產品時,我們可以利用遠期曲線來處理大部分業務。因此,我們覺得無論我們是否同意這些曲線,我們都會使用這些曲線,而這些曲線具有相當不錯的精確度。但到了商品銷售和麵粉加工方面,就沒有前進的跡象了。那麼環境將會是什麼樣子呢?我認為,如果我們繼續依賴全球大量現貨庫存客戶,那麼在這個市場上機會不多,情況會更加艱難。
But again, volatility disruption, global demand shifts, trade policy changes, all those things create opportunity on the merchandising side that is really hard to model in. So we will obviously be able to be in a good position as a great point out, take advantage of those things.
但同樣,波動性擾亂、全球需求變化、貿易政策變化,所有這些因素都會在商品銷售方面創造機會,而這些機會很難用模型來衡量。所以很明顯,我們可以處於有利地位,抓住這些優勢。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Probably two other things worth mentioning, right? We saw last year China drawing a lot of beans out of Brazil, particularly in South America overall that created headwinds for crush there. And then, of course, as the U.S. China issue got solved, then taking beans out of the U.S. in the fall, which created some headwinds for crush margins there. We'd expect to see a more normal flow in the coming year.
可能還有兩件事值得一提,對吧?去年我們看到中國從巴西,特別是整個南美洲,大量進口大豆,這給當地的壓榨業帶來了不利影響。當然,隨著中美關係的解決,秋季美國開始出口大豆,這對美國的壓榨利潤帶來了一些不利影響。我們預計來年流量將恢復正常。
And then on the soft side, of course, we've had two years in a row of tough sun seeds production in the Black Sea, Europe area. And that's been hard on margins.
當然,在軟質作物方面,黑海和歐洲地區已經連續兩年出現了難收的太陽種子。這對利潤率造成了很大影響。
So while we've got some more balance in Argentina on the Sun crush side, and we had good crops there in the second half, I think if we can get a good sun crop, that should be improvements in Black Sea and Europe for Sun crushing. So those are some of the flags, I guess some of the bigger issues that we're watching developed.
所以,雖然我們在阿根廷的陽光葡萄壓榨方面取得了一些平衡,而且下半年那裡的收成也不錯,但我認為,如果我們能獲得良好的陽光葡萄收成,那麼黑海和歐洲的陽光葡萄壓榨情況應該會有所改善。所以,這些就是一些跡象,我想也是我們正在關注的一些重大議題的發展方向。
Matthew Blair - Analyst
Matthew Blair - Analyst
Sounds good. And for the follow-up, so renewable diesel margins in the U.S. are already moving up quite a bit in the first quarter. Are there any signs in your system yet on a larger pool for soybean oil from the renewable diesel space? Any signs that U.S. renewable diesel utilization is stepping up as these margins improve?
聽起來不錯。至於後續報道,美國再生柴油利潤率在第一季已大幅上升。你們的系統裡是否有任何跡象表明,再生柴油領域的大豆油供應池正在擴大?隨著利潤率的提高,美國再生柴油的利用率是否有所提高?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
We're seeing some modest pull, but honestly, I mean, stocks continue to build in oil. And I think until we get clarity and the producers have certainty, we're still going to see stocks build. But as we look at the model and we look at the demand, it can turn very quickly.
我們看到了一些小幅上漲,但說實話,我的意思是,石油庫存仍在持續增加。我認為,在形勢明朗、生產商獲得確定性之前,庫存還會繼續增加。但當我們審視這種模式並觀察需求時,就會發現情況可能會迅速轉變。
And we could go from a surplus oil environment today where we're building stocks to a very tight market very quickly. And our expectation would be, if we get if we get to the 2 or 5.6, depending on even under either of those scenarios, there's going to be substantial pull on soybean oil, canola oil is favored bean stocks along with the domestic OCI, and we'll see things tighten up fairly quickly.
我們今天石油供應過剩,庫存不斷增加,這種情況可能很快就會轉變為石油市場供應非常緊張的局面。我們的預期是,如果匯率達到 2 或 5.6(取決於具體情況),那麼大豆油、菜籽油以及國內其他商品指數(OCI)等豆類股票將受到相當大的拉動,我們將看到市場很快趨於緊張。
Obviously, everybody is kind of waiting to see what's going to happen. Yes, there started to be some anticipation of that, but not anywhere near what we will expect once things are finalized.
顯然,大家都在觀望接下來會發生什麼事。是的,之前確實有人開始期待這件事,但遠不及事情最終敲定後我們所期待的程度。
Operator
Operator
Manav Gupta, UBS
瑞銀集團 Manav Gupta
Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst
Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst
So my first question is the buyback was pretty strong in 3Q and -- sorry, in 3Q and it dropped off a cliff in 4Q, like you went from $545 million to $6 million. I'm just trying to understand why such a steep drop and how should we look at buybacks going ahead?
所以我的第一季度是,第三季度的股票回購力度相當大——抱歉,是第三季度,但到了第四季度就斷崖式下跌,就像從 5.45 億美元跌到了 600 萬美元。我只是想弄清楚為什麼會出現如此大幅度的下跌,以及我們該如何看待未來的股票回購?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, we just -- we stepped in the market to get a majority of it done. We just -- we didn't complete it all at the end of Q3 and going into Q4. But we're absolutely committed to wrapping that up the remaining program, and we'll get that done, I think, fairly soon.
是的,我們只是——我們進入市場,完成了大部分工作。我們只是——我們在第三季末和第四季初並沒有完成所有工作。但我們絕對致力於完成剩餘的項目,而且我認為我們很快就能完成。
Relative to ongoing, I think as we look forward, we definitely see an opportunity to make share buyback a bigger part of our capital allocation process, and we're going to discuss that more on Investor Day, certainly as we provide more of a forward outlook.
就目前情況而言,我認為展望未來,我們肯定有機會讓股票回購成為我們資本配置過程中更重要的一部分,我們將在投資者日上對此進行更深入的討論,當然,我們也會提供更多前瞻性的展望。
But this machine should generate a lot of cash going forward. And our view is that return to shareholders is going to be a more critical part of our ongoing capital allocation as we move forward. And -- but we'll highlight more details on that in March.
但從長遠來看,這台機器應該能帶來很多收益。我們認為,隨著公司的發展,股東回報將在我們持續的資本配置中扮演更重要的角色。不過——我們將在三月詳細介紹這一點。
Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst
Manav Gupta - Equity Analyst
Well, my second question is, when you look at Street for 1Q, it's like [176]. Your guidance is implying [80]. Like where do you think the Street is getting it so wrong versus what you are guiding. Like why is the state almost double where you are in terms of your guidance?
我的第二個問題是,當你查看華爾街對第一季的預測時,你會發現…[176]你的指導暗示著[80]你覺得華爾街在哪些方面犯下瞭如此大的錯誤,而你所指導的方向又有哪些不同?例如,為什麼你所在州的指導意見幾乎是你所在州的兩倍?
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
John Neppl - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. I think it's difficult to say maybe at this point other than maybe understanding the velocity of what we're seeing that maybe the RVO impact would start getting traction in Q1. And that obviously has been delayed, and we're fairly locked for Q1.
是的。我認為現在很難說,除了了解我們所看到的現象的發展速度之外,或許RVO的影響會在第一季開始顯現。顯然,這已被推遲,我們基本上確定第一季能夠完成。
So even if we get -- as things improve, we have some open capacity to capture some of that. But by the time the RVO gets finalized and enacted, we're going to be through the quarter. And maybe there was just some -- a bit of disconnect in terms of the timing of that.
所以即使我們得到——隨著情況好轉,我們還有一些開放的產能來抓住其中的一部分。但等到 RVO 最終定稿並生效時,這個季度就結束了。或許只是在時間安排上有點脫節。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'd say also that I hope you heard is we kind of talked through that, while this is fairly back half loaded, as we talk about the range, it feels like there are a lot more things that could kind of turn to the favorable versus be challenging as we think about how markets develop, policy develops, more normalized trade flows versus what we saw in '25.
我還想說的是,我希望你們聽到了,我們討論過這個問題,雖然這主要集中在後半段,但當我們談到範圍時,感覺有很多事情可能會變得有利而不是具有挑戰性,因為我們要考慮市場的發展、政策的發展以及與 2025 年相比更加正常的貿易流動。
And where we've got a big global machines run with a lot of long lead times, all those things are favorable. So I think we had to look at the things that could kind of tip to negative or positive. I think we feel things are maybe more bent to the positive when you roll them all up. So I hope that's clear.
而且,對於我們那些營運週期很長的大型全球機器來說,所有這些因素都是有利的。所以我覺得我們必須考慮那些可能導致結果出現負面或正面變化的因素。我認為,當我們把所有因素綜合起來考慮時,我們可能會覺得事情更偏向正面的一面。希望這一點很清楚。
Operator
Operator
Pooran Sharma, Stephens, Inc
Pooran Sharma,Stephens公司
Pooran Sharma - Anlayst
Pooran Sharma - Anlayst
Hi, good morning and thanks for the question. Just wanted to start off and get a little bit more granularity into the commercial synergy opportunity. I think you mentioned a few details on the call. But I was just wondering what are the opportunities that you've kind of uncovered, and what are some of the things that that you're working on? Anything kind of higher level would be helpful. Thanks.
您好,早安,感謝您的提問。我只是想先從商業綜效的機會入手,更詳細地探討一下。我想你在電話裡提到了一些細節。我只是想知道你發現了哪些機會,以及你正在研究哪些方面?任何更高層次的幫助都會很有幫助。謝謝。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Sure. There's no doubt, as a processor, the vertical nature of this combination with term much stronger origination and Bunge having a bigger processing footprint as a processor, the more you can buy direct from the farm, the better that is for controlling everything from your pipelines and capacity utilization and quality and yields and everything.
當然。毫無疑問,作為加工商,這種垂直整合的特性,加上邦吉作為加工商更強大的原材料採購能力和更大的加工規模,意味著你能從農場直接購買的越多,就越有利於控制從管道、產能利用率、品質、產量等各個方面。
And we definitely get a lot of focus on increasing the percent we buy direct from farmers and providing the market for them. And now we've got much more capability to do that. We're seeing that continue to push forward a higher percent bought direct and that will continue.
我們非常重視提高直接從農民購買農產品的比例,並為他們提供市場。現在我們更有能力做到這一點了。我們看到,直接購買的比例將持續上升,而且這種情況還會持續下去。
And then as we talked earlier, when you're optimizing the total footprint, you'll make different decisions than when you were competitors on the timing of understanding the needs of a processing plant and also understanding the needs of our origination and being able to keep the flows moving through the ports into third-party customers. So getting the reps with the team and getting an understanding of our combined capabilities has been great.
正如我們之前討論過的,當你優化整體佈局時,你會做出與作為競爭對手時不同的決策,例如了解加工廠的需求以及了解我們原產地的需求,並能夠保持貨物通過港口流向第三方客戶。因此,與團隊進行訓練並了解我們各自的綜合能力非常重要。
And then even if you take something like and talk about our softseed crushing platform, I talked about we're much more balanced, not only on our seed origination and global merchandising where we've seen a number of opportunities with some of the trade disruptions to be able to continue to get farmers to market and find the right demand, but also on the meal, on the sun meal and the canola and rapeseed meal where, when we look at the combined footprint, we've been able to connect origins and destinations that weren't connected before.
即使以我們的軟籽壓榨平台為例,我之前也提到過,我們現在更加平衡,不僅在種子採購和全球銷售方面,我們看到了一些貿易中斷帶來的機遇,能夠繼續幫助農民將產品推向市場並找到合適的需求,而且在粕類、葵花籽粕、油菜籽粕和菜籽粕的所有方面,當我們已經連接到所有方面,當我們已經將所有環節的目的地連接起來。
And then as some of those trade lanes were shut off and were not economical, we've even developed some new markets that didn't exist before. They weren't using some of these products. And so we've been able to grow those markets.
隨著一些貿易通道關閉且不再經濟,我們甚至開發了一些以前不存在的新市場。他們並沒有使用這些產品。因此,我們得以拓展這些市場。
And it's just the combined capabilities as we get the repetitions to continue to peel those opportunities back. And just the way the teams are working together, I just couldn't be more pleased and I've had the opportunity to do a lot of travel around and visit plants and visit the offices and visit ports, and it's fantastic go into a room and nobody says, I was my terror.
而這只是透過不斷重複練習,將各種能力結合起來,繼續挖掘這些機會。團隊的合作方式讓我非常滿意,我有機會四處旅行,參觀工廠、辦公室和港口,走進一個房間,沒有人說“我以前是我的噩夢”,這感覺太棒了。
I was Bunge's just everybody's pun. The teams are excited about the capabilities that we've got in this global platform and what we can do to serve our customers to work together. And there's no lack of challenges in the world right now, but I don't think anybody is better equipped than Bunge to deal with it.
我就是邦吉,只是大家的笑話而已。團隊對我們在這個全球平台上擁有的能力以及我們能夠為客戶提供的服務、促進合作感到興奮。現在世界上的挑戰確實很多,但我認為沒有任何一家公司比邦吉更有能力應對這些挑戰。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions).
(操作說明)
I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks.
我謹將會議交還給格雷格·赫克曼,請他作總結發言。
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Gregory Heckman - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'd just like to thank everybody for joining us for today. We appreciate your interest in Bunge. We look forward to speaking to you again very soon. And I hope everybody has a great day. Thank you.
我只想感謝今天到場的各位。感謝您對邦吉公司的關注。我們期待很快能再次與您聯繫。祝大家今天過得愉快。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
謝謝。會議已經結束。感謝各位參加今天的報告會。您現在可以斷開連線了。