Bunge Global SA (BG) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Bunge Global SA third quarter 2024 earnings release and conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Bunge Global SA 2024 年第三季財報發布和電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ruth Ann Wisener. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給露絲·安·懷森納。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and thank you for joining us this morning for our third quarter earnings call. Before we get started, I want to let you know that we have slides to accompany our discussion. This can be found at the Investor Center on our website at bunge.com under Events and Presentations. Reconciliations of our non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are posted on our website as well.

謝謝您，運營商，也感謝您今天早上參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。在我們開始之前，我想讓您知道我們有幻燈片來配合我們的討論。您可以在我們網站 bunge.com 投資者中心的「活動和演示」下找到該資訊。我們的非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表也發佈在我們的網站上。

I'd like to direct you to slide 2 and remind you that today's presentation includes forward-looking statements that reflect Bunge's current view with respect to future events, financial performance and industry conditions.

我想引導您觀看投影片 2，並提醒您今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述反映了邦吉目前對未來事件、財務表現和行業狀況的看法。

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Bunge has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in this presentation, and we encourage you to review these factors.

這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響。Bunge 在向 SEC 提交的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本簡報中包含的結果存在重大差異的因素的更多信息，我們鼓勵您查看這些因素。

On the call this morning are Greg Heckman, Bunge's Chief Executive Officer; and John Neppl, Chief Financial Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Greg.

今天早上接聽電話的是邦吉執行長格雷格‧赫克曼 (Greg Heckman)。和財務長約翰·內普爾。我現在將電話轉給格雷格。

Thank you, Ruth Ann, and good morning, everyone. Our team delivered a strong third quarter, thanks to their ability to react quickly to shifting market dynamics to capture opportunities as they emerge. Our focused approach to leveraging our global platform enabled us to serve our customers at both ends of the value chain, farmers and in consumers.

謝謝你，露絲安，大家早安。我們的團隊在第三季取得了強勁的業績，這要歸功於他們能夠對不斷變化的市場動態做出快速反應，以抓住出現的機會。我們利用全球平台的專注方法使我們能夠為價值鏈兩端的客戶、農民和消費者提供服務。

We're making great progress on integration planning for our announced combination with Viterra. The teams are working well together, confirming our confidence that we will be a more complete, one combined company. Their commitment will ensure that we can effectively serve our customers from day 1.

我們在宣布與 Viterra 合併的整合規劃方面取得了巨大進展。這些團隊合作良好，堅定了我們對我們將成為更完整、更整合的公司的信心。他們的承諾將確保我們從第一天起就能有效地為客戶提供服務。

We also continue to engage with the relevant authorities as we work toward gaining the few remaining regulatory approvals. Since our last call, we received conditional clearance from the European Commission, and we're well on the way to the process of meeting the conditions.

我們也將繼續與相關當局合作，爭取剩餘的少數監管批准。自上次通話以來，我們收到了歐盟委員會的有條件許可，並且我們正在順利滿足條件。

Conversations in the other jurisdictions are constructive. We do not see any issues that would materially impact the economics of the deal. We expect to close the transaction later this year, early 2025. In addition to progressing on the Viterra transaction, we also completed other strategic priorities, including closing the sale of our interest in our noncore sugar and bioenergy joint venture in Brazil, to our partner BP.

其他司法管轄區的對話是建設性的。我們沒有看到任何會對交易的經濟效益產生重大影響的問題。我們預計將於今年稍晚（2025 年初）完成交易。除了取得 Viterra 交易的進展外，我們還完成了其他策略重點，包括將我們在巴西的非核心糖和生物能源合資企業的權益出售給我們的合作夥伴 BP。

Turning to our results. We delivered another quarter of solid adjusted EBIT. We exceeded our expectations for the quarter, great execution by the team led to stronger results in our core segments. Similar to the second quarter, we saw shifting margin environments across the globe, with improved margins in some regions, offsetting more muted conditions in others.

轉向我們的結果。我們又交付了一個季度穩定的調整後息稅前利潤。我們超越了本季的預期，團隊的出色執行力為我們的核心部門帶來了更強勁的業績。與第二季類似，我們看到全球利潤率環境發生變化，某些地區的利潤率有所改善，抵消了其他地區更為疲軟的狀況。

Since we reported the second quarter, we repurchased $200 million of Bunge shares, making progress against the repurchase plan we outlined, following the announcement of the Viterra transaction.

自從我們報告第二季度以來，我們回購了價值 2 億美元的 Bunge 股票，在 Viterra 交易宣布後，我們概述的回購計劃取得了進展。

Looking ahead, many of the same market dynamics remain in place, which we expect to continue for the rest of the year. Based on what we see in the markets and the forward curves today, we now expect full year adjusted EPS to be at least $9.25.

展望未來，許多相同的市場動態仍然存在，我們預計這種情況將在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。根據我們今天在市場和遠期曲線上看到的情況，我們現在預計全年調整後每股收益至少為 9.25 美元。

And with that, I'll turn it over to John for a deeper look at our financials and outlook. John?

接下來，我會將其交給約翰，以更深入地了解我們的財務狀況和前景。約翰？

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Let's turn to the earnings highlights on slide 5. Reported third quarter earnings per share was $1.56 compared to $2.47 in the third quarter of 2023. Reported results included an unfavorable mark-to-market timing difference of $0.16 per share and a negative impact of $0.57 per share, primarily related to transaction and integration costs associated with our announced business combination with Viterra.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。讓我們看一下投影片 5 上的收益亮點。報告的第三季每股收益為 1.56 美元，而 2023 年第三季為 2.47 美元。報告的表現包括每股 0.16 美元的不利市價時間差異和每股 0.57 美元的負面影響，主要與我們宣布與 Viterra 業務合併相關的交易和整合成本有關。

Adjusted EPS was $2.29 in the third quarter versus $2.99 in the prior year. Adjusted core segment earnings before interest and taxes or EBIT was $561 million in the quarter versus $735 million last year. In Agri business, processing results of $291 million in the quarter were down from last year, as higher results in South America and European soy crush were more than offset by lower results in North America, European softseed and Asia.

第三季調整後每股收益為 2.29 美元，去年同期為 2.99 美元。本季調整後的核心部門息稅前利潤或 EBIT 為 5.61 億美元，而去年為 7.35 億美元。在農業業務方面，本季加工業績較去年下降 2.91 億美元，原因是南美洲和歐洲大豆壓榨業務的較高業績被北美、歐洲軟籽和亞洲較低的業績所抵消。

In Merchandising, higher results were driven by improved performance in our financial services, ocean freight and global oils businesses, more than offsetting lower results in global grains. Refined and Specialty Oils performed well, but down from a strong prior year, as higher results in Asia were more than offset by lower results in North and South America. Results in Europe were in line with last year.

在商品銷售方面，金融服務、海運和全球石油業務業績的改善推動了業績的成長，足以抵銷全球穀物業績的下降。精煉油和特種油表現良好，但較去年的強勁表現有所下降，因為亞洲較高的業績被北美和南美較低的業績所抵消。歐洲的結果與去年一致。

Milling, slightly higher results in North America were more than offset by lower results in South America for higher raw material cost pressure margins. Corporate and Other improved from last year. The decrease in corporate expenses was primarily driven by lower performance-based compensation. Higher Other results were largely related to Bunge Ventures and our captive insurance program.

製粉方面，北美地區略高的業績被南美洲原料成本壓力利潤率上升導致的較低業績所抵銷。企業及其他較去年有所改善。公司費用的減少主要是由於績效薪酬下降所致。較高的其他業績很大程度上與 Bunge Ventures 和我們的自保保險計劃有關。

In our noncore sugar and bioenergy joint venture, higher sugar and ethanol volumes were more than offset by higher operating costs and lower ethanol prices. Lower results also reflected foreign exchange translation losses on US dollar-denominated debt in the quarter compared to translation gains in the prior year.

在我們的非核心糖和生物能源合資企業中，較高的糖和乙醇產量被較高的營運成本和較低的乙醇價格所抵消。較低的業績也反映出本季以美元計價的債務的外匯換算損失與上一年的換算收益相比。

The first 9 months of the year, reported income tax expense was $236 million compared to $495 million in the prior year. Decrease was primarily due to lower pretax income. Net interest expense of $94 million in the quarter was in line with last year.

今年前 9 個月，報告的所得稅費用為 2.36 億美元，去年同期為 4.95 億美元。減少主要是由於稅前收入減少。本季淨利息支出為 9,400 萬美元，與去年持平。

Let's turn to slide 6, where you can see our adjusted EPS and EBIT trends over the past 4 years, along with the trailing 12 months. Strong performance over the period reflects a combination of favorable market environment and excellent execution by our team. The recent trend reflects more balanced and less volatile markets translating into lower earnings.

讓我們轉向投影片 6，您可以在其中看到過去 4 年以及過去 12 個月的調整後每股盈餘和息稅前利潤趨勢。在此期間的強勁表現反映了有利的市場環境和我們團隊的出色執行力。最近的趨勢反映出市場更加平衡且波動性較小，從而導致收益下降。

Slide 7 details our capital allocation. Year-to-date, we generated approximately $1.3 billion of adjusted funds from operations. After allocating $295 million to sustaining CapEx, which includes maintenance, environmental health and safety, we had $988 million of discretionary cash flow available.

投影片 7 詳細介紹了我們的資本配置。今年迄今為止，我們從營運中獲得了約 13 億美元的調整後資金。在分配 2.95 億美元用於維持資本支出（包括維護、環境健康和安全）後，我們擁有 9.88 億美元的可自由支配現金流。

Of this amount, we paid $287 million in dividends, invested $592 million in growth in productivity related CapEx, about 2/3 of which relates to our large multiyear greenfield investments, and repurchased $600 million of Bunge shares. This resulted in a use of $491 million of previously retained cash flow. Based on our current progress on our greenfield projects, we now expect that we will end the year toward the higher end, CapEx range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion or slightly above.

其中，我們支付了2.87 億美元的股息，投資了5.92 億美元用於生產力相關的資本支出增長，其中約2/3 與我們的大型多年期綠地投資有關，並回購了6 億美元的邦吉股票。這導致使用了 4.91 億美元之前保留的現金流。根據我們目前綠地計畫的進展情況，我們現在預計今年年底資本支出將達到 12 億美元至 14 億美元或略高的上限。

Moving to slide 8. At quarter end, readily marketable inventories, or RMI, exceeded our net debt by approximately $2.8 billion. Our adjusted leverage ratio, which reflects our adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA, was 0.5x at the end of the quarter.

轉到投影片 8。截至季末，適銷庫存 (RMI) 超過我們的淨債務約 28 億美元。我們的調整後槓桿率（反映調整後淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 比率）在本季末為 0.5 倍。

Slide 9 highlights our liquidity position. At quarter end, we had committed credit facilities of approximately $8.7 billion, all of which was unused at the end of the quarter, providing us ample liquidity to manage our ongoing capital needs.

投影片 9 強調了我們的流動性狀況。截至季度末，我們承諾了約 87 億美元的信貸額度，所有這些額度在季度末均未使用，為我們提供了充足的流動性來管理我們持續的資本需求。

In addition, we had a cash balance of $2.8 billion. Accumulated in large part as a result of $2 billion of cash proceeds from the US public debt offering that we closed in September. These amounts in addition to $6 billion of term loan commitments that we had secured last year will be used to fund the Viterra transaction.

此外，我們的現金餘額為 28 億美元。很大程度上是由於我們在 9 月完成的美國公共債券發行中獲得了 20 億美元的現金收益。這些資金加上我們去年獲得的 60 億美元定期貸款承諾將用於資助 Viterra 交易。

Please turn to slide 10. The trailing 12 months, adjusted ROIC was 13.8%, well above our RMI adjusted weighted average cost of capital of 7.7%. ROIC was 11.3%. While returns have declined from recent highs, it remained well above our weighted average cost of capital of 7%.

請翻到投影片 10。過去 12 個月，調整後的投資報酬率為 13.8%，遠高於我們的 RMI 調整後加權平均資本成本 7.7%。投資報酬率為 11.3%。雖然回報率較近期高點下降，但仍遠高於我們 7% 的加權平均資本成本。

Moving to slide 11. The trailing 12 months, we produced discretionary cash flow of approximately $1.4 billion and a cash flow yield of 12.3% compared to our cost of equity of 8.2%.

轉到投影片 11。過去 12 個月，我們產生了約 14 億美元的可自由支配現金流，現金流收益率為 12.3%，而股本成本為 8.2%。

Please turn to slide 12 and our 2024 outlook. As Greg mentioned in his remarks, taking into account year-to-date results, the current margin environment forward curves and the loss of income due to the sale of our ownership in the sugar JV, we now expect full year 2024 adjusted EPS to be at least $9.25.

請參閱幻燈片 12 和我們的 2024 年展望。正如格雷格在演講中提到的，考慮到今年迄今為止的業績、當前的利潤率環境遠期曲線以及因出售我們在糖業合資企業中的所有權而造成的收入損失，我們現在預計2024 年全年調整後每股收益為至少 9.25 美元。

In Agribusiness, full year results are forecasted to be up from our previous outlook, reflecting the better-than-expected third quarter, but down compared to last year. Refined and Specialty Oils, full year results are expected to be up from our previous outlook, but down compared to last year's record performance. In Milling, full year results are expected to be down from our previous outlook, reflecting the lower-than-expected third quarter, but up from last year.

在農業綜合企業方面，預計全年業績將高於我們先前的預期，反映出第三季優於預期，但與去年相比有所下降。精煉油和特種油，全年業績預計將高於我們先前的預期，但低於去年創紀錄的業績。在製粉領域，預計全年業績將低於我們先前的預期，反映出第三季低於預期，但高於去年。

In Corporate and Other, full year results are expected to be similar to our previous outlook. In non-core, full year results are expected to be down considerably from our previous outlook due to the lower-than-expected third quarter and the loss of income from the sale of our ownership in the sugar JV, which closed on October 1.

在企業及其他方面，全年業績預計與我們先前的預期相似。在非核心業務方面，由於第三季業績低於預期，以及出售我們於 10 月 1 日關閉的糖業合資公司所有權所帶來的收入損失，預計全年業績將大幅低於我們先前的預期。

Additionally, the company currently expects the following for 2024: Adjusted annual effective tax rate in the range of 22% to 24%; net interest expense in the range of $285 million to $305 million; capital expenditures in the upper end of the range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion; and depreciation and amortization of approximately $450 million.

此外，該公司目前預計 2024 年將實現以下目標： 調整後的年度有效稅率在 22% 至 24% 範圍內；淨利息支出在2.85億美元至3.05億美元之間；資本支出在 12 億至 14 億美元之間；以及折舊和攤提約4.5億美元。

With that, I'll turn things back over to Greg for some closing comments.

至此，我將把事情轉回給格雷格，讓他發表一些結束語。

Thanks, John. So before turning to Q&A, I want to offer a few closing thoughts. Looking ahead, what impresses me most is our team's commitment to day-to-day execution, along with continuous improvement. We've done a lot of hard work to strengthen our business and operations so that we can continue to provide quality products and services to our customers at both ends of the value chain.

謝謝，約翰。因此，在進行問答之前，我想提供一些結束語。展望未來，最讓我印象深刻的是我們團隊對日常執行以及持續改善的承諾。我們做了很多艱苦的工作來加強我們的業務和運營，以便我們能夠繼續為價值鏈兩端的客戶提供優質的產品和服務。

We're always looking for additional opportunities to get better. We spent significant capital improving the facilities and operations across our outstanding global footprint. And our team is making sure those investments pay off in improved efficiency and reliability. For instance, our US plants had their best soy crush performance for a crop year ever, and we continue to run at high utilization rates. We also reached year-to-date record volumes in global rapeseed crushing and refining.

我們一直在尋找額外的機會來變得更好。我們投入了大量資金來改善我們卓越的全球足跡的設施和營運。我們的團隊正在確保這些投資在提高效率和可靠性方面得到回報。例如，我們的美國工廠在作物年度中取得了有史以來最好的大豆壓榨性能，並且我們繼續以高利用率運作。今年迄今為止，我們的全球油菜籽壓榨和精煉產量也創下了紀錄。

In the quarter, we broke ground on the expansion of our Palm and Specialty Oils facility in Avondale, Louisiana, that we purchased last year. This facility, which has multi-oil capabilities, builds on our ability to provide specialty oils to our food customers in North America, and is already exceeding our initial performance expectations. We're excited to further grow operations in this location, that has significantly improved our reach across North America.

本季度，我們去年購買的位於路易斯安那州埃文代爾的棕櫚油和特種油工廠的擴建工程破土動工。該工廠具有多種油的生產能力，建立在我們向北美食品客戶提供特種油的能力之上，並且已經超出了我們最初的績效預期。我們很高興能夠進一步擴大在該地區的業務，這極大地提高了我們在北美的影響力。

In today's often complicated global environment, strengthening all areas of our business is more important than ever. Our combination with Viterra will further accelerate our diversification across assets, geographies and crops, providing us with more optionality to help address the world's food security needs. While we always look for opportunities to improve, we are well positioned to deliver on our critical mission of connecting farmers to consumers to deliver essential food, feed and fuel to the world.

在當今複雜的全球環境中，加強我們業務的各個領域比以往任何時候都更重要。我們與 Viterra 的合併將進一步加速我們在資產、地理和作物方面的多元化，為我們提供更多選擇，幫助滿足世界糧食安全需求。雖然我們一直在尋找改進的機會，但我們有能力履行我們的重要使命，將農民與消費者聯繫起來，向世界提供基本的食品、飼料和燃料。

And with that, we'll turn to Q&A.

接下來，我們將轉向問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

安德魯‧斯特雷齊克 (Andrew Strelzik)，BMO。

I just wanted to start on crush margins. There's been a lot of concern in the market throughout this year on what would happen with crush margins, but the curve is only strengthened at least for the US for the rest of this year and also 2025.

我只是想從壓榨利潤開始。今年市場一直非常擔心壓榨利潤會發生什麼，但至少在美國，今年剩餘時間以及 2025 年，這條曲線只會加強。

So I guess the question is, how are you thinking about crush margins from here in terms of durability and the ability to capture that margin strength? I don't know if there are offsets in other reasons -- in other regions, excuse me. And then the press release says that you passed through the 3Q processing strengths of the guidance, but I didn't know if you made any changes to your assumptions for the fourth quarter.

所以我想問題是，您如何從耐用性和捕捉利潤強度的能力角度來考慮壓榨利潤？我不知道是否有其他原因造成的抵銷——其他地區，請原諒。然後新聞稿稱您通過了指南中的第三季度處理優勢，但我不知道您是否對第四季度的假設進行了任何更改。

Yes, let me start and John can fill in. I'd say that the headline has been demand is good. So we've got livestock economics have been good really everywhere except China, where chickens made good, but pork is bigger, has been the laggard. And so very supportive on meal demand. And then soy oil is competitive globally. And some of the support there, of course, is palm, but just overall good demand.

是的，讓我開始，約翰可以補充。我想說的是，標題是需求良好。因此，除了中國，畜牧業經濟在世界各地都表現良好，中國的雞肉產量不錯，但豬肉更大，一直是落後者。因此非常支持膳食需求。然後豆油在全球範圍內具有競爭力。當然，那裡的一些支持是棕櫚樹的，但總體來說需求良好。

And so we've seen Europe, good demand and part of that is lower soybean meal shipments out of South America. Brazil, you've seen a little bit of slower spot farmer selling and working through some of the logistical commitments down there.

因此，我們看到歐洲需求良好，部分原因是南美洲豆粕出貨量減少。巴西，您已經看到那裡的現貨農民銷售和完成一些物流承諾的速度有點慢。

Argentina has been margin challenge, but the margin has been good enough to cover fixed costs. So we've seen Argentina crushing, even with farmers continuing to retain their ownership, kind of waiting for the next round of policy incentives.

阿根廷一直面臨利潤率挑戰，但利潤率足以支付固定成本。因此，我們看到阿根廷正在崩潰，儘管農民繼續保留其所有權，但他們仍在等待下一輪政策誘因。

And then the US continued to improve on strong soybean meal demand. And part of that has been less flows out of Argentina, but it's been our own big soy crop. And then I touched on China, which the margin has been very volatile there, really driven by softer and weak demand. So that's what we've seen carry in. And I don't think that -- as usual, we don't see a lot of visibility beyond the first half. But right now, demand feels pretty good for meal and oil.

隨後美國因豆粕需求強勁而持續改善。部分原因是流出阿根廷的流量減少，但這是我們自己的大大豆作物。然後我談到了中國，那裡的利潤率一直非常不穩定，這實際上是由需求疲軟和疲軟推動的。這就是我們所看到的。我不認為——像往常一樣，我們在上半場之後看不到太多的可見性。但目前，膳食和石油的需求感覺相當不錯。

Yes. And Andrew, maybe just to touch on the outlook for Q4 and whether we've had any changes. I think that really the only couple of things I'd mention there. One is when we looked at -- if you look at the overperformance in our core business in Q3, we think we probably pulled a little bit of earnings out of Q4 just given the market and customers and uncertainty around EU DR, we think maybe we pulled maybe $0.15 out of Q4 into Q3.

是的。安德魯，也許只是想談談第四季度的前景以及我們是否有任何變化。我想這確實是我唯一要提到的幾件事。一個是，如果你看看我們第三季核心業務的超額表現，我們認為考慮到市場和客戶以及歐盟災難復原的不確定性，我們可能會從第四季度撤回一些收益，我們認為也許我們從第第四季到第三季的營收可能為0.15 美元。

And then the other one, of course, was with the sale of sugar, we probably -- we took about $0.15 of earnings out of our Q4 forecast.

當然，另一個是糖的銷售，我們可能從第四季度的預測中扣除了約 0.15 美元的收益。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess if I zoom out, and I know you're not giving '25 guidance at this point, but -- and obviously, a lot of work to do around acquisitions and buybacks going forward as well. But if I just look at the base business, at current levels, I guess, crush appears to be above the baseline. You see the refined continues to hold in better. So I guess just from a high level, how would you frame the setup into 2025, I guess, relative to maybe a normal type of year for Bunge?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。然後我想如果我縮小範圍，我知道你現在不會給出 25 年的指導，但是 - 顯然，未來圍繞收購和回購還有很多工作要做。但如果我只看基礎業務，我想，在目前的水平上，擠壓似乎高於基線。你會看到精緻的東西繼續保持得更好。所以我想，從較高的層面來看，相對於邦吉的正常年份，我想你會如何將設定納入 2025 年？

And I was kind of specifically speaking to soy, I probably should mention soft is probably the one area that -- what we've seen in the last few years on the softseed side, we've got a lot of weather impacting the Black Sea in European sun and rate production. So that's not only hurt margins, but you've got farmer who's going to be very spot there with the smaller crop.

我是專門針對大豆而言的，我可能應該提到軟大豆可能是一個領域——過去幾年我們在軟種子方面看到的情況，我們有很多天氣影響黑海在歐洲陽光下並提高產量。因此，這不僅會損害利潤，而且農民的產量也會減少。

Now in Canada, we also are seeing canola margins continue to be good, but they are off from the higher margins we enjoyed in the past and some of that due to a smaller crop. So our softseed crushing is a smaller business, but that's definitely softer than what we've seen in the last few years. So that would be part of the offset to the positive environment we're seeing in soy.

現在在加拿大，我們也看到雙低油菜籽的利潤仍然不錯，但與我們過去享有的較高利潤有所不同，其中一些是由於產量減少所致。因此，我們的軟籽壓榨業務規模較小，但肯定比我們過去幾年看到的要軟。因此，這將是我們在大豆產業中看到的積極環境的部分抵消。

Yes. And I think, Andrew, in terms of the baseline, how we think about that in '25, I would say we've been -- Refined and Specialty Oil has been pretty resilient, and I think probably logically will perform a little better than baseline in '25. And crush, we'll see we're off to a good start, and crush margins are pretty resilient in the first half of the year. So we'll see how that progresses, probably some opportunity there.

是的。我認為，安德魯，就基線而言，我們如何看待 25 年的情況，我想說我們一直以來——精煉和特種油一直相當有彈性，我認為從邏輯上講，它的表現可能會比25年的基線。和壓榨，我們會看到我們有一個良好的開端，並且壓榨利潤在今年上半年相當有彈性。所以我們會看看進展如何，可能會有一些機會。

But merchandising has been -- continues to be a little performing below baseline. So that one, we'll see what kind of volatility we get in the markets and opportunity. And then, of course, we're taking sugar now out of our baseline. But with what we expect to do on share buybacks relative to sugar, that should a net neutral to slightly positive.

但商品銷售的表現一直—仍略低於基準。因此，我們將看看市場和機會會出現什麼樣的波動。然後，當然，我們現在正在將糖從我們的基線中剔除。但根據我們對相對於食糖的股票回購的預期，這應該是淨中性到小幅正面的結果。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Yes. I want to ask a little bit about your customers on the fuel side. And specifically, first thing there was an article this week on Bloomberg about how you and some other big crushers are actually slowing down soybean purchases and crushing volumes because you're going to see less purchases from your fuel customers. At the same -- so if you have any comments on that and your strategy there? What you're seeing in terms of demand in Q4 and perhaps in Q1 as the tax credit landscape changes? And also what other feedback you have, I guess.

是的。我想詢問一下你們的客戶在燃料方面的狀況。具體來說，首先，彭博社本週發表了一篇文章，介紹您和其他一些大型壓榨商實際上如何減緩大豆採購和壓榨量，因為您將看到來自燃料客戶的採購量減少。同時，您對此以及您的策略有何評論？隨著稅收抵免格局的變化，您對第四季甚至第一季的需求有何看法？我想您還有其他回饋嗎？

On the other hand, one of the major customers on the fuel side has mentioned that they're using higher CI score feedstocks right now before they make a more major switch in to lower CI feedstocks. So what are you seeing there? What are your thoughts on this and the risk it poses for next year?

另一方面，燃料方面的一個主要客戶提到，他們現在正在使用 CI 分數較高的原料，然後再大幅轉向 CI 分數較低的原料。那麼你在那裡看到了什麼？您對此有何看法以及它為明年帶來的風險？

Sure. Yes. Let me divide that into a couple of pieces. Let me talk first about the Bloomberg article. We did see that, and that is not accurate. We continue to have our purchases from farmers to be very strong. In fact, if you compare this marketing year, it's higher than the last several years. So it wasn't accurate.

當然。是的。讓我把它分成幾個部分。我先說一下彭博社的文章。我們確實看到了這一點，但這並不準確。我們從農民那裡的購買量仍然非常強勁。事實上，如果你比較今年的行銷年度，它會比過去幾年更高。所以它不準確。

As far as the fuel demand and the customers, we do have some uncertainty here in the US. And I might start at a high level and finish with the US, but while we had a lot of lack of clarity around US policy, globally, things feel better, right?

就燃料需求和客戶而言，我們在美國確實存在一些不確定性。我可能會從高級別開始，最後以美國為結束，但儘管我們對美國政策缺乏明確性，但在全球範圍內，情況感覺更好，對吧？

You've got Brazil talking -- they put in the law on the fuel of the future. So we're seeing them move from B14 here in '24 to B15 in '25 and moving towards B20 in 2030. So they'll go up 1% annually. You've got Indonesia that just went from B35 and committed to go to B40. And then in Europe, there's some support put in place now for SAF and maritime fuels and some of those have UCO caps, which will then lead to veg oils as well. So I think it feels better overall.

巴西正在談論——他們制定了有關未來燃料的法律。因此，我們看到他們從 24 年的 B14 轉向 25 年的 B15，並在 2030 年轉向 B20。所以他們每年會上漲1%。印尼剛從 B35 邁向 B40。然後在歐洲，現在對 SAF 和船用燃料提供了一些支持，其中一些有 UCO 上限，這也將導致植物油。所以我認為整體感覺更好。

Now back to the US, with our policy uncertainty and the switch from blenders credit to a producer's credit and uncertain RVO, what we've got out there, we got billions of dollars of assets that are proven technology in the ground on traditional biodiesel, renewable diesel and even some SAF that's running at really low capacity utilization because we haven't got all the policy and the incentives right yet, and we remain positive that, that will get worked out, right?

現在回到美國，由於我們的政策不確定性以及從攪拌機信貸轉向生產商信貸和不確定的 RVO，我們已經擁有了數十億美元的資產，這些資產是傳統生物柴油的成熟技術，可再生柴油，甚至一些SAF 的產能利用率非常低，因為我們還沒有製定正確的所有政策和激勵措施，但我們仍然樂觀地認為，這將會得到解決，對嗎？

Because one of the things that the policymakers said they wanted to see is to make sure that we could have the supply there. And I think what the market has shown, it's done its work, and we've shown that we do have the supply, capacity has been added, the market works, and we've been able to provide for that industry. So we remain positive that, that will get worked out over the next year, and that will be positive for demand from the fuel sector -- from the renewable feedstocks here in the US.

因為政策制定者表示他們希望看到的事情之一是確保我們能夠在那裡獲得供應。我認為市場已經表明，它已經完成了它的工作，我們已經表明我們確實有供應，產能已經增加，市場正在發揮作用，我們已經能夠為該行業提供服務。因此，我們仍然樂觀地認為，這個問題將在明年得到解決，這將對燃料產業（美國再生原料）的需求產生正面影響。

Perfect. And if I may just follow up. I guess technically with the new credit landscape, if someone can only use lower CI feedstocks, they would fully go away from soybean oil, but the main issue is obviously logistical and supply challenges. So do you have any views on the supply and the supply restrictions and limitations for tallow and used cooking oil, and how much essentially of the feedstock mix, this could be next year or the next few years?

完美的。我可以跟進一下嗎？我想從技術上講，在新的信貸環境下，如果有人只能使用較低 CI 的原料，他們將完全放棄豆油，但主要問題顯然是物流和供應挑戰。那麼，您對牛脂和廢食用油的供應、供應限制和限制，以及明年或未來幾年可能佔原料組合的比例有什麼看法嗎？

I think I would start again with if you look over the last few years, the market works, and so we've seen the low CI feedstocks as well as the vegetable oils. And as policy shifts, it finds its place to the right demand on the globe. So there is more demand coming than any one feedstock can address.

我想我會重新開始，如果你看看過去幾年，市場運作良好，所以我們看到了低 CI 原料和植物油。隨著政策的轉變，它會根據全球的需求找到自己的位置。因此，未來的需求量超出任何一種原料所能滿足的範圍。

Salvator, this is John. When you look at 45Z of course, we were hoping that would get finalized this year. It may spill into Q1. A big part of that now is pushed from agricultural groups in the US, particularly farmers, to even the playing field. And maybe provide either preference for US-based supply or restrict the import of UCO and tallow and other feedstocks. That could have a pretty big impact on the farm economy, depending on the decision that's made. And obviously, we want -- we just want the US farmer to have an even playing field.

薩爾瓦托，這是約翰。當然，當你看到 45Z 時，我們希望它能在今年最終確定。它可能會蔓延到第一季。現在，其中很大一部分是由美國農業團體，特別是農民推動的，以平衡競爭環境。或許可以優先選擇美國供應，或限制 UCO、牛脂和其他原料的進口。這可能會對農業經濟產生相當大的影響，這取決於所做的決定。顯然，我們只是希望美國農民有一個公平的競爭環境。

And we think that's important to get that right in the upcoming finalization of 45Z. But that will certainly drive how much foreign feedstocks come into the US. And it could be similar to last year. I don't know if that -- it's hard to predict whether it'd be more than last year, but certainly, if the changes come that I think the farming groups are hoping for, and I think we think it's fair, it will certainly provide some tailwind for the products that we supply to the industry.

我們認為，在即將到來的 45Z 定稿中做到這一點非常重要。但這肯定會增加外國原料進入美國的數量。這可能與去年類似。我不知道是否會這樣——很難預測是否會比去年更多，但當然，如果發生我認為農業團體所希望的變化，而且我認為我們認為這是公平的，它會肯定會為我們向該產業提供的產品提供一些推動力。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

I wanted to just ask on Viterra, and thanks for the update on unexpected timing. Just on the business' recent results, does it affect at all how you look at the longer-term earnings power for the business? Or should we look at kind of the details you laid out last summer as still largely holding?

我只想問一下 Viterra，感謝您在意外時間上提供的更新。就企業最近的業績而言，它是否會影響您對企業長期獲利能力的看法？或者我們應該看看你去年夏天列出的細節仍然在很大程度上有效嗎？

I would say absolutely not. We still have the confidence in this combination. It's a great fit. They are not in the same place as we are as we've had a chance to work on some of the integration planning, seeing that great team that they've got and seeing how these teams are working together, and they are as excited, I think, as all of us are to get this deal closed so we can all work together, because it's just so much that we can't do at this point in the process.

我想說絕對不會。我們對這個組合還是有信心的。非常合適。他們和我們不在同一個地方，因為我們有機會進行一些整合規劃，看到他們擁有的優秀團隊，看到這些團隊如何一起工作，他們很興奮，我認為，由於我們所有人都將完成這筆交易，因此我們可以共同努力，因為在這個過程中，我們目前無法做到的事情太多了。

So we're excited about what it means for the long term. This is going to give us a lot of alternatives and ways to grow and to continue to serve our customers in a very differentiated way, and that's customers at both ends of the value chain.

因此，我們對它的長期意義感到興奮。這將為我們提供許多選擇和發展方式，並繼續以非常差異化的方式為我們的客戶提供服務，即價值鏈兩端的客戶。

And Tom, I'd maybe just add, while we're a little disappointed that things have taken us long to close, it has given us time to continue. We haven't stopped and just sat and waited. We've been continuing to fine-tune our planning, doing some things now that we would have maybe done after close around readiness, around transition, around organizational design and integration, core synergy capture. We're focused on the things we can control around this transaction, and we're very excited about that.

湯姆，我也許想補充一點，雖然我們對事情花了很長時間才結束感到有點失望，但這給了我們繼續下去的時間。我們沒有停下來，只是坐著等待。我們一直在繼續微調我們的計劃，做一些我們現在可能在準備就緒、過渡、組織設計和整合、核心協同捕獲後可能會做的事情。我們專注於圍繞這筆交易我們可以控制的事情，我們對此感到非常興奮。

And we -- as we mentioned before, we weren't totally surprised with Viterra's first half performance given kind of the broader market. But to Greg's point, this is about a long-term opportunity, and we feel very good together about the things we can control. And ultimately, the market will be what -- the market environment will be what it is as we move forward. But in the long run, this is -- we think this is a hit.

正如我們之前提到的，考慮到更廣闊的市場，我們對 Viterra 上半年的表現並不完全感到驚訝。但就格雷格而言，這是一個長期機會，我們對我們可以控制的事情感覺非常好。最終，隨著我們的前進，市場將是什麼樣子——市場環境將是什麼樣子。但從長遠來看，我們認為這是一個打擊。

Okay. And then just one topic that had come up in previous quarters, and you did touch on it earlier, it was just the lack of farmers selling in South America, I think, and how that's maybe -- there's offset that maybe hurts margin in South America, but does seem to be helping soy crush margins as we look at Europe and North America.

好的。然後只是前幾季出現的一個話題，你之前確實提到過，我認為這只是南美缺乏農民銷售，這可能是一種抵消，可能會損害南美的利潤率美國，但從歐洲和北美來看，大豆似乎確實在幫助壓低利潤。

Just any thoughts on the pace of farmer selling? Is there a point where that should really pick up as we move towards maybe this new harvest in the first half of '25?

對農民出售的步伐有什麼想法嗎？當我們邁向 25 年上半年的新收穫時，是否有時間點應該真正回升？

Yes. We think that you probably are right, it will be in the first half of '25. One is the South American farmer gets a better idea in Argentina of how policy will shake out, even if somebody communicated here in '24, there's not much of the year left to probably make much of a difference here. So I think first half 2025 will be key on that.

是的。我們認為你可能是對的，那將是 25 年上半年。一是南美農民在阿根廷對政策將如何調整有了更好的了解，即使有人在 24 年在這裡進行了溝通，今年也沒有多少時間可以在這裡產生太大的影響。所以我認為 2025 年上半年將是這方面的關鍵。

And then in Brazil, where we've got some good rains and planting is really accelerating down there, I think we feel like we will see another big crop there in South America, and I think that will give some confidence to the producer. And then here in the US, of course, we're harvesting a real big bean crop right now. And so as we get to the end of that, we'll see how the producer. They never like lower prices than prior year. But ultimately, you've got to make some decisions and manage some risk, and we'll see that I think start to move here in the first half of next year.

然後在巴西，我們得到了一些良好的降雨，那裡的播種速度確實加快了，我認為我們感覺我們將在南美洲看到另一次大豐收，我認為這會給生產商帶來一些信心。當然，在美國，我們現在正在收穫真正的黃豆作物。當我們結束時，我們會看看製片人是如何做到的。他們從不喜歡比去年更低的價格。但最終，你必須做出一些決定並管理一些風險，我們會看到我認為在明年上半年開始搬到這裡。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

馬納夫古普塔，瑞銀集團。

My question is on your growth CapEx. You're obviously spending on your growth projects. Help us understand what's the progress over there? When are the key start-up dates for these growth projects? When do they -- when do you expect them to come online and start making a material contribution to the EBITDA?

我的問題是關於你們的成長資本支出。顯然你正在為你的成長項目花錢。幫我們了解那邊的進度如何？這些成長項目的關鍵啟動日期是什麼時候？他們什麼時候——您預計他們什麼時候上線並開始為 EBITDA 做出實質貢獻？

Yes. So we have 4 key large projects underway today. And I think that 2025 will really be the biggest year in terms of spending CapEx on those as those projects move toward finalization.

是的。今天我們有 4 個重要的大型專案正在進行中。我認為，隨著這些項目即將敲定，2025 年將真正成為這些項目的資本支出支出最大的一年。

I think realistically, on those projects, we're looking at late '24 -- or I'm sorry, late '25 commissioning to early '26. So not probably a lot of impact on '25 results, just given the fact that you got to work through commissioning and bugs as you get these plants up and going.

我認為，實際上，在這些項目上，我們會考慮在 24 年末——或者抱歉，在 25 年末到 26 年初進行調試。因此，考慮到您在啟動和運行這些工廠時必須透過調試和錯誤進行工作，因此對 25 年的結果可能不會產生太大影響。

But -- so I think really, we'll start to look for first half of '26 for these to start contributing and expect all of them to be kind of running by second half. And so second half of '26 is really how I'd see the addition to earnings from those projects from a run rate perspective. And then, of course, once we complete those projects toward the end of '25, early '26, then we'll start to see a more normalized CapEx level back half of '26 and beyond.

但是——所以我認為，我們真的會開始尋找 26 年上半年的機會，讓這些人開始做出貢獻，並期望他們所有人都能在下半年開始運作。因此，26 年下半年，我確實從運行率的角度看待這些項目的收益增加。當然，一旦我們在 25 年底、26 年初完成這些項目，我們將開始看到 26 年後半段及以後的資本支出水準更加正常化。

Perfect. My follow-up here is a little bit -- you've also mentioned this that although the deal has been delayed a little, it's giving you more time to plan. So help us understand now when Viterra does close, do we expect some of those synergies to be realized earlier than expected? How has the time line of moving the deal allowed you to plan better as you close on it?

完美的。我的後續行動是一點點——你也提到了這一點，雖然交易被推遲了一點，但這給了你更多的時間來計劃。那麼現在請幫助我們了解，當 Viterra 關閉時，我們是否期望其中一些協同效應能夠比預期更早實現？轉移交易的時間表如何讓您在完成交易時能夠更好地進行規劃？

Yes. It's really been around the, I'll say, the organizational design and getting things ready and right for Day 1 with no disruption. Unfortunately, despite the extended time frame, we still cannot get together commercially. And so we have not been able to accelerate any of the commercial planning and the commercial roles, but what we -- the commercial -- our role in the market together, that, unfortunately, we have to wait until close.

是的。我想說，這實際上是圍繞組織設計以及為第一天做好準備而沒有中斷。不幸的是，儘管時間延長了，我們仍然無法在商業上走到一起。因此，我們無法加速任何商業規劃和商業角色，但不幸的是，我們必須等到關閉。

But we have been able to spend more time with the teams, make sure we're getting the right people in the right roles going forward. And I think we feel like a lot of the uncertainty sometimes it can happen right after close, we're addressing that stuff now so that people have focus and confidence the day we close a transaction and lower our risk of any kind of disruption in the day-to-day.

但我們已經能夠花更多的時間與團隊在一起，確保我們讓合適的人擔任合適的角色。我認為我們感覺很多不確定性有時可能會在交易結束後立即發生，我們現在正在解決這些問題，以便人們在我們結束交易的那天擁有焦點和信心，並降低我們在交易中遭受任何形式乾擾的風險。

But again, unfortunately, we have not been able to accelerate the commercial planning side, which is really where we think the long-term opportunity is.

但不幸的是，我們未能加快商業規劃的速度，而這確實是我們認為長期機會所在。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯，希瑟瓊斯研究。

I had a question on bean oil and meal, but starting with bean oil. So given the biofuel policy uncertainty we've got in the US, demand for bean oil could be very depressed in late Q4 and Q1. And I was just curious if you think the export demand could be strong enough to offset that, given soybean oil's attractive price relative to palm and rape. And also, do you see any potential logistical constraints to the US handling that magnitude of exports?

我有一個關於豆油和豆粕的問題，但從豆油開始。因此，考慮到美國生物燃料政策的不確定性，第四季末和第一季大豆油的需求可能會非常低迷。我只是好奇，鑑於豆油相對於棕櫚油和油菜的價格具有吸引力，您是否認為出口需求可能強勁到足以抵消這一影響。另外，您認為美國處理如此大規模的出口是否有任何潛在的後勤限制？

Yes, I think you've got that right that soy oil is competitive globally right now against palm and some of the soft oils, and we've now seen the US be competitive. Again, I do think we can handle those logistics because the US was always holding the residual stocks prior to some of the biofuels demand in the last few years. We held the residual stocks for the world, and we did export as it was needed. So as the market is calling for that, I think we're in a good position to do that, and that's one of the things that we feel good about on the oil demand side globally.

是的，我認為你說得對，豆油目前在全球範圍內相對於棕櫚油和一些軟油具有競爭力，而且我們現在已經看到美國具有競爭力。再說一次，我確實認為我們可以處理這些物流，因為過去幾年美國總是在一些生物燃料需求之前持有剩餘庫存。我們為世界各地持有剩餘庫存，並根據需要進行出口。因此，隨著市場的要求，我認為我們有能力做到這一點，這是我們在全球石油需求方面感到滿意的事情之一。

Okay. And then on meal, so that demand has been much stronger than expected this year, and it seems to be because of a big step-up in feed ration inclusion because animal numbers globally just aren't up that much. So when we look to '25, I was wondering if you think there is room for additional sizable increases in ration inclusion, assuming the price is relatively attractive?

好的。然後是膳食，今年的需求比預期要強勁得多，這似乎是因為飼料配給量的大幅增加，因為全球動物數量並沒有增加那麼多。因此，當我們展望 25 年時，我想知道，假設價格相對有吸引力，您是否認為配給量還有進一步大幅增加的空間？

Yes. Soybean meal demand has been very good. And it's -- you've got less mid proteins around, you've got a wheat crop that's not as competitive for feeding on the wheat side.

是的。豆粕需求一直都非常好。而且，周圍的中間蛋白質較少，小麥作物對於以小麥為主的飼料沒有那麼有競爭力。

And you've got the other -- if you look historically, when meal gets cheaper, people like to feed it. They like feeding meal and when they can -- when the numbers work and the animal profitability is up, which is the situation we're in right now, we see the inclusion rates go up. And I think that's the demand that we have seen this year in the US and globally. So we can expect that to continue there into '25. We can't see much past the first half, but that's what we see right now.

還有另一個——如果你回顧歷史，當食物變得更便宜時，人們喜歡吃它。他們喜歡餵食，當他們可以的時候——當數字發揮作用並且動物盈利能力上升時，這就是我們現在所處的情況，我們看到包容率上升。我認為這就是我們今年在美國和全球看到的需求。因此，我們預計這種情況將持續到 25 年。上半場之後我們看不到太多，但這就是我們現在看到的。

And Heather, I would just add that I think one of our strengths on the commercial side is our ability to market deal globally. And we actually market today more deal that we produce ourselves. So we've got a team that's very steeped in the experience of marketing meal globally. And as things change and as market demand ebbs and flows, I think our team is usually right on top of that.

希瑟，我想補充一點，我認為我們在商業方面的優勢之一是我們在全球範圍內行銷交易的能力。事實上，今天我們推銷的交易比較是我們自己生產的。因此，我們擁有一支擁有豐富的全球餐飲行銷經驗的團隊。隨著情況的變化和市場需求的起伏，我認為我們的團隊通常能夠做到這一點。

And if I could sneak in a clarifying question. So you guys probably have as good a visibility as anyone into fee profiles globally. I mean, could we see a situation in '25 where we have an increase in inclusion rates as much as we did this year, like I mean I don't know if we're near a cap like -- or could we see another sizable step-up?

如果我可以偷偷地提出一個澄清問題。所以你們可能和其他人一樣對全球的費用概況有很好的了解。我的意思是，我們是否會在25 年看到一種情況，即我們的納入率會像今年一樣增加，就像我的意思是，我不知道我們是否接近上限，或者我們是否會看到另一個上限大幅提升？

I think you've got to continue to watch how it sets up versus the competing. And what we do know right now is less wheat feeding, less mid proteins, got some smaller seed crops. You don't make as much meal in the soft crush, but you've got Europe and Black Sea with some smaller seed crops, so some less meal there. So yes, it's all part of the factors that are setting up the current situation we've got, which has been constructed, and we've all seen it in the numbers.

我認為你必須繼續觀察它與競爭對手的對比。我們現在所知道的是減少小麥餵養，減少中間蛋白質，並獲得一些較小的種子作物。在軟壓榨中你不會產生那麼多的粉，但歐洲和黑海有一些較小的種子作物，所以那裡的粉量會少一些。所以，是的，這都是造成我們目前狀況的因素的一部分，這種狀況已經形成，我們都在數字中看到了這一點。

Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂文‧海恩斯，摩根士丹利。

Maybe I just wanted to ask a kind of follow-up question on the refined side of things. I think there was a comment before to an earlier question about being resilient and better than baseline in 2025. I think you're still kind of quite a bit above baseline where we are right now. So can you kind of help frame, I guess, what a bit better looks like and how we should be thinking about it next year?

也許我只是想問一個關於事物精緻方面的後續問題。我認為之前有人對之前的一個問題發表過評論，內容是關於 2025 年的彈性和優於基線的問題。我認為你仍然比我們現在所處的基線高出很多。那麼，我想，您能否幫助我們框架一下，什麼看起來更好一些，以及明年我們應該如何考慮它？

Yes, I'll start and Greg, you can jump in if you -- look, I think we certainly are seeing as expected. And what we contemplated in our long-term baseline was that refining premiums would moderate and that demand would go back more toward crude edge oil for -- especially for the energy side.

是的，我要開始了，格雷格，如果你——聽著，我想我們肯定會看到預期的結果，你可以加入。我們在長期基準中考慮的是，煉油溢價將會放緩，需求將更多地回歸原油邊緣油——尤其是能源方面。

I think what we've seen is a very strong and somewhat of a resilient market on the food side that's been very good. We've had about a $400 million baseline for that business. And as you pointed out, we've been performing above that.

我認為我們所看到的是食品方面非常強勁且具有一定彈性的市場，這非常好。我們對該業務的基線約為 4 億美元。正如您所指出的，我們的表現一直高於這一水平。

And I think just given our increased capability in our portfolio and what we've seen on the food side, plus probably a little bit more resilient demand on energy, I think we feel like we are set. It's hard today to predict what that above baseline number is going to be. I think we have to get a better handle on where things are headed from a policy standpoint.

我認為，鑑於我們投資組合的能力增強以及我們在食品方面所看到的情況，再加上對能源的需求可能更具彈性，我認為我們感覺我們已經準備好了。今天很難預測高於基線的數字將會是多少。我認為我們必須從政策的角度來更好地掌握事情的發展方向。

These things around 45Z and RVO and things like that could have an impact, certainly on even the refining versus crude piece of it. But ultimately, we feel pretty good about that business being on probably more solid footing than it's ever been. In total, when you look at the specialty side and the refined, obviously the refining again, the energy piece of that, we did expect to moderate, but we've been very pleased with the food demand.

45Z 和 RVO 周圍的這些東西以及類似的東西可能會產生影響，甚至是對精煉與原油的影響。但最終，我們對這項業務的基礎可能比以往任何時候都更加堅實感到非常滿意。總的來說，當你看看專業方面和精煉食品時，顯然又是精煉食品，其中的能源部分，我們確實預計會有所放緩，但我們對食品需求非常滿意。

Got it. And then just on the meal side of things, there's been a bunch of capacity that's going to come on in the US this year. Our understanding is that it's not kind of fully running yet. It takes some time to kind of hit that run rate.

知道了。然後就餐飲方面而言，今年美國將出現大量產能。我們的理解是它還沒有完全運作。達到這個運行率需要一些時間。

Is the market kind of feeling the impact of this yet? Or how should we think about it as even more supply is expected to come on in '25 and there's some projects slated for '26 yourself included. So how should we be thinking about the market's ability to, I guess, absorb the excess meal going forward?

市場是否感受到了這項影響？或者我們應該如何看待它，因為預計 25 年會有更多的供應，而且還有一些計劃在 26 年進行的項目，其中包括您自己。那麼，我想，我們該如何考慮市場未來吸收多餘膳食的能力呢？

Yes. It's the thing about meal. It's a very global market. I think John mentioned, we market more than we produce, we continue to make investments. We've made investments in our P&W asset to be able to handle meal here in the US and get it export. So I think the investments will continue to be made to connect the supply to the demand globally.

是的。就是吃飯的事。這是一個非常全球化的市場。我想約翰提到過，我們的行銷量超過了生產量，我們繼續進行投資。我們對 P&W 資產進行了投資，以便能夠在美國處理膳食並出口。因此，我認為將繼續進行投資，以連接全球的供應和需求。

And you said -- as you said, those plants, they're not like flipping a light switch. They do come on, and so they kept dovetailed into the demand, and price does this work around the inclusion rates. So we think the market will do its work.

你說——正如你所說，那些植物，它們不像按下電燈開關。他們確實出現了，所以他們一直與需求相吻合，而價格則圍繞著包容率發揮作用。所以我們認為市場會發揮作用。

Yes. And maybe I'd just add one thing, Steven. Greg mentioned the P&W where we're adding some capacity for export of meal. We're doing the same in the Gulf. So we have our big project, of course, our expansion with Chevron in the Gulf at Destrehan, our adjacent export terminal, we're expanding the capacity of that to handle more meal to be exported from the US.

是的。也許我只想補充一件事，史蒂文。格雷格提到了 P&W，我們正在增加一些膳食出口能力。我們正在海灣地區做同樣的事情。當然，我們有我們的大項目，我們與雪佛龍在海灣地區德斯特雷漢（Destrehan）的擴建，我們鄰近的出口碼頭，我們正在擴大該碼頭的容量，以處理更多從美國出口的膳食。

So we've anticipated this for 2 or 3 years. And these projects are well underway, moving along, and we'll be well positioned, as well positioned as anybody to get the stuff out in the market where it needs to go internationally.

所以我們已經預料到這一點兩三年了。這些項目正在順利進行，不斷向前推進，我們將處於有利位置，與任何人一樣處於有利位置，可以將產品推向需要走向國際的市場。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Greg, John, so just a few things to clarification. So I think you said there's a $0.15 impact on the loss that you need to book for the Bioenergy, the disposal? Was that something that you expected to happen in 3Q and now it's just moved into 4Q for that implicit downgrade of that $0.15? So that would be question number one.

格雷格、約翰，有幾件事需要澄清。所以我想你說過，你需要為生物能源登記的損失有 0.15 美元的影響，處置？這是您預計在第三季度發生的事情嗎？所以這是第一個問題。

And then just question number two, related to the timing of Viterra and the pending approvals. Can you remind us which are the big jurisdictions that are still pending right now?

然後是第二個問題，與 Viterra 的時間安排和待批准的項目有關。您能否提醒我們哪些大司法管轄區目前仍懸而未決？

Yes, I'll start with sugar and Greg can talk about Viterra timing. So we didn't -- we had a forecast in for the full year for sugar because we really didn't know when this was going to actually close. The Q3 was simply underperformance. So we didn't have a good Q3 in sugar as we highlighted.

是的，我將從糖開始，格雷格可以談談維特拉的時機。所以我們沒有——我們對全年的糖產量進行了預測，因為我們真的不知道什麼時候會真正結束。第三季的表現實在不佳。因此，正如我們所強調的那樣，我們在第三季的糖方面表現不佳。

And then Q4, we lost about $0.15 of earnings that was in our prior forecast because of selling and closing on Oct. 1. But we looked that in there until we actually had certainty around close. So that's just reflective of the lost earnings for Q4. And then, of course, as I mentioned, you can see that the results for Q3 that we were well below where we expected.

然後第四季度，由於 10 月 10 日的出售和關閉，我們損失了約 0.15 美元的收益，這在我們先前的預測中。1.但我們在那裡進行了觀察，直到我們真正確定了接近的情況。所以這只是反映了第四季的收益損失。當然，正如我所提到的，您可以看到我們第三季的結果遠低於我們的預期。

Overall, second half, probably down $0.35, I would say, between Q3 and Q4 from what we had originally expected.

總的來說，下半年，我想說，第三季和第四季之間可能比我們最初的預期下降了 0.35 美元。

Just sugar?

只是糖嗎？

Just sugar.

只是糖。

Okay.

好的。

If it was a core business stepping up and covering that in the second half, so it's a better quality of earnings. We like the way it happened.

如果下半年是核心業務的加強和覆蓋，那麼獲利品質就會更好。我們喜歡它發生的方式。

Okay. And then on the approval?

好的。然後就批准了？

And then on the regulatory, yes, the regulatory, since the last time we rolled together, of course, we got the EU conditional approval, where we've got to do some asset sales in Poland and Hungary. So we're working through that process currently and making good progress.

然後在監管方面，是的，監管方面，自從我們上次合作以來，當然，我們獲得了歐盟的有條件批准，我們必須在波蘭和匈牙利進行一些資產出售。所以我們目前正在完成這個過程並取得了良好的進展。

In Canada, you may have seen there's a new transport minister there. We're engaged with them and making great progress addressing all the questions and closing out the issues. We expect that to be in the relative near term.

在加拿大，您可能已經看到了一位新的交通部長。我們正在與他們接觸，並在解決所有問題和解決問題方面取得了巨大進展。我們預計這將在相對近期內發生。

And then the other, of course, is in China. And we continue to work with the Chinese authorities. We have very productive discussions and able to respond to all their questions. So again, feel that, that should be hopefully here in the near term.

當然，另一個是在中國。我們將繼續與中國當局合作。我們進行了非常有成效的討論，並能夠回答他們的所有問題。再次強調，這應該會在短期內實現。

And lastly, we look forward to getting the regulatory approvals done, as we said, in no scenario, we don't see anything that would be material to the economics of the transaction, and we just cannot wait to put these 2 great companies together and get these teams to work. Everybody is excited and feels like we've got our hands tied behind our back here and can't wait to get to the next stage.

最後，我們期待著獲得監管部門的批准，正如我們所說，在任何情況下，我們都看不到任何對交易的經濟性產生重大影響的事情，我們迫不及待地想將這兩家偉大的公司合併在一起並讓這些團隊開始工作。每個人都很興奮，感覺我們的手被綁在背後，迫不及待地想進入下一階段。

Okay. And then Argentina, I mean, obviously, that's a post-close approval process, but there was some news just recently about an Argentine soy exporter that you were planning to take over and that got kind of blocked out of bankruptcy. Has that any consequences on how you think about the post-close approval process in Argentina?

好的。然後是阿根廷，我的意思是，顯然，這是一個關閉後的批准程序，但最近有一些關於阿根廷大豆出口商的消息，您計劃接管該出口商，但該出口商被阻止破產。這對您對阿根廷交割後審批流程的看法有什麼影響嗎？

No, not at all. We -- of course, we've been in Argentina a long time. We work closely with the authorities there. It's an important operation for us. So the appeal is just part of the process -- the legal process down there. We weren't really surprised by it. It's kind of a technical issue, and we'll continue to work through the process. But no, we've always thought about those processes working in parallel.

不，一點也不。當然，我們已經在阿根廷待了很長時間了。我們與那裡的當局密切合作。這對我們來說是一項重要的手術。所以上訴只是這個過程的一部分——以下是法律程序。我們對此並不感到驚訝。這是一個技術問題，我們將繼續解決這個過程。但不，我們一直在考慮這些進程並行工作。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Greg Heckman for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回格雷格·赫克曼（Greg Heckman）發表閉幕詞。請繼續。

Thank you. So thanks again for joining us today, and we appreciate your interest in Bunge. I want to just close by thanking the team one more time for their dedication.

謝謝。再次感謝您今天加入我們，我們感謝您對邦吉的興趣。最後，我想再次感謝團隊的奉獻精神。

Our performance is a testament to the quality of our people and the culture that we've built here at Bunge. And it's allowed us to execute on our day-to-day business to maintain a relentless drive for continuous improvement and to make great progress on the integration planning. I'm really as excited as ever about the future of Bunge and what we're going to be able to accomplish together with Viterra.

我們的業績證明了我們員工的品質以及我們在邦吉所建立的文化。它使我們能夠執行日常業務，保持持續改進的不懈動力，並在整合規劃方面取得巨大進展。我對 Bunge 的未來以及我們將與 Viterra 共同實現的目標感到一如既往的興奮。

So we look forward to speaking with you again soon, and have a great day.

因此，我們期待很快再次與您交談，並祝您有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。