Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Brown-Forman's; Corporation, fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, earnings results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now, hand the conference over to your speakers for today, Sue Perram, Vice President, Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎來到布朗福曼；公司，第四季和 2024 財年，收益電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我將會議交給今天的發言人，副總裁兼投資者關係總監 Sue Perram。

Sue, please go ahead.

蘇，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早安。

I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's; fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024, earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我要感謝你們今天加入我們參加布朗福曼的會議；第四季和 2024 財年的財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有總裁兼執行長 Lawson Whiting 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Leanne Cunningham。

This morning's conference call, contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements.

今天早上的電話會議包含基於我們目前預期的前瞻性聲明，許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中的預期或預測有重大差異。

Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward looking statements and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise.

許多決定未來結果的因素超出了公司的控製或預測能力。您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述，除非法律要求，否則本公司不承擔更新任何這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

This morning, we issued a press release, containing our results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024. In addition, to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne, will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations.

今天早上，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含我們第四季度和 2024 財年的業績。新聞稿和簡報均可在我們網站的「投資者、活動和簡報」部分找到。

In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在新聞稿中，我們列出了您應結合我們的前瞻性陳述考慮的一些風險因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格報告中描述了其他重大風險因素。

During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP, financial measures. These measures a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP, financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計準則、財務衡量標準進行了協調，管理層認為這些衡量標準為投資者提供了有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息的原因，均包含在新聞稿和投資者介紹中。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給勞森。

Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，蘇，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today as we share Brown-Forman's; fiscal 2024 results.

感謝您今天加入我們，分享 Brown-Forman 的； 2024 財年業績。

Before diving into the details, I wanted to provide a few high-level comments on our performance and my perspectives on the year. Brown-forman is a 154 year old company. So we have been through periods of complexity and uncertainty in the past. We understand what it means to be resilient. We know how to navigate short-term challenges while remaining focused on our long-term strategy.

在深入討論細節之前，我想對我們的表現和我對這一年的看法提供一些高級評論。 Brown-forman 是一家擁有 154 年歷史的公司。因此，我們過去經歷過複雜和不確定的時期。我們了解韌性意味著什麼。我們知道如何應對短期挑戰，同時繼續專注於我們的長期策略。

Fiscal 2024, has certainly been a challenging year, as we're still operating in a highly dynamic environment. While our business is not immune to the impacts of industry and macroeconomic headwinds. Brown-forman and its people have remained agile, focused and committed to the long-term growth of our brands and of our business.

2024 財年無疑是充滿挑戰的一年，因為我們仍然在高度動態的環境中運作。儘管我們的業務也無法免受產業和宏觀經濟逆風的影響。 Brown-forman 及其員工始終保持敏捷、專注並致力於我們品牌和業務的長期成長。

There's certainly a lot of complexity to our results, which we will walk you through momentarily. However, when you consider our depletion base results, which we believe represents the true health of our business we're pleased with our fiscal 2024, performance as it is in line with our long-term growth expectations. While that statement may surprise some of you, this past fiscal year was greatly impacted by changes in consumer retail and distributor inventories.

我們的結果當然非常複雜，我們將立即引導您完成。然而，當您考慮我們的消耗基數結果時（我們認為這代表了我們業務的真正健康狀況），我們對 2024 財年的業績感到滿意，因為它符合我們的長期成長預期。雖然這項聲明可能會讓一些人感到驚訝，但上一財年受到消費者零售和分銷商庫存變化的巨大影響。

We believe our brands remain healthy. We're in the right categories and price points, and we're confident in the outlook for our business. So let's discuss all of this in greater detail. Throughout the year, we've been using the word normalization as we lap the impact of the supply chain challenges, the rebuilding of inventory in the prior year as well as consumers getting back to historical consumption patterns.

我們相信我們的品牌保持健康。我們處於正確的類別和價位，並且我們對我們的業務前景充滿信心。那麼讓我們更詳細地討論所有這些。全年，我們一直在使用「正常化」這個詞，因為我們應對供應鏈挑戰、前一年庫存重建以及消費者恢復歷史消費模式的影響。

We expected our organic results to moderate in fiscal 2024, after two plus years of double digit growth. However, as we move through the year, conditions changed, consumers faced higher inflation and increased interest rates that made them as well as distributors and retailers reconsider when and how they made purchases.

經過兩年多的兩位數成長後，我們預計 2024 財年的有機業績將會放緩。然而，隨著時間的推移，情況發生了變化，消費者面臨更高的通貨膨脹和更高的利率，這使得他們以及分銷商和零售商重新考慮何時以及如何購買。

In this environment, our fiscal 2024, results were below our expectations, with organic net sales declining 1% and organic operating income decreasing 2% and this is where it gets particularly complex and potentially confusing. So thank you, for allowing me to get into the weeds here a bit as seen in Schedule D, the estimated net change in distributor inventory had a very significant influence on our results this year, reducing our organic net sales by 6% and operating income by 14%.

在這種環境下，我們 2024 財年的表現低於我們的預期，有機淨銷售額下降 1%，有機營業收入下降 2%，這就是事情變得特別複雜和可能令人困惑的地方。所以謝謝你，讓我在這裡稍微討論一下，如附表D 所示，經銷商庫存的估計淨變化對我們今年的業績產生了非常重大的影響，使我們的有機淨銷售額和營業收入減少了6% 14%。

The scale of this impact is significant when compared to any other time, prior to the pandemic as the estimated net change in distributor inventory has historically only impacted organic results by one or two points in any given year. The sizable difference in fiscal 2024, between shipments and depletions was driven by several factors converging at one time.

與大流行之前的任何其他時間相比，這種影響的規模是巨大的，因為從歷史上看，經銷商庫存的估計淨變化在任何一年中僅對有機結果產生一到兩個百分點的影響。 2024 財年出貨量和消耗量之間的巨大差異是由多種因素同時疊加造成的。

This includes the tough comparison against the rebuilding of distributor inventories in fiscal 2023, related to the glass and supply chain challenges, along with the more recent changes in distributor and retail ordering patterns. We found that the timing and size of orders has fluctuated from their historical patterns to adjust for higher interest rates and moderating consumer demand. We believe our performance is best captured by factoring in the impact from the estimated net change in distributor inventories, which is what I referred to earlier as our depletion based results.

這包括與 2023 財年分銷商庫存重建的嚴格比較，涉及玻璃和供應鏈挑戰，以及分銷商和零售訂購模式的最新變化。我們發現，訂單的時間和規模已經偏離了歷史模式，以適應更高的利率和放緩的消費者需求。我們認為，透過考慮經銷商庫存估計淨變化的影響，可以最好地反映我們的業績，這就是我之前所說的基於消耗的結果。

These depletion based results, which capture the sale of our brands from distributors to retailers is the way we manage our business internally within Brown-Forman, and the way we incentivize our leaders. From this perspective, our top line results more closely reflect our longer-term trends and our bottom line results were particularly strong for these reasons, we believe the fundamental health of our brands and our business remains solid.

這些基於消耗的結果記錄了我們的品牌從經銷商到零售商的銷售情況，這是我們在 Brown-Forman 內部管理業務的方式，也是我們激勵領導者的方式。從這個角度來看，我們的頂線業績更接近地反映了我們的長期趨勢，並且我們的底線業績特別強勁，因此，我們相信我們的品牌和業務的基本健康狀況仍然穩固。

We've also been using the word normalization because if we look back over the past five years, which encompasses the numerous impacts of the pandemic, our year organic net sales compounded annual growth rate of 6% this is in line with our long-term growth algorithm and demonstrates our strong track record of consistent and sustainable results over the long term.

我們也一直使用「正常化」這個詞，因為如果我們回顧過去五年，其中包括大流行的眾多影響，我們今年的有機淨銷售額複合年增長率為 6％，這符合我們的長期目標增長演算法並展示了我們長期一致和可持續結果的良好記錄。

I also want to highlight the 150 basis points of reported gross margin expansion that we delivered in fiscal 2024. We benefited from favorable price mix as we continue to execute our long-term pricing strategy along with our enhanced revenue growth management capabilities. We also benefited from the growth of our super premium brands. Price mix, along with the absence of the supply chain disruption costs in the prior year period, more than offset higher input costs and unfavorable foreign exchange. We're very pleased with our strong reported gross margin expansion and believe we will continue on this path in the coming fiscal year.

我還想強調我們在 2024 財年實現的毛利率擴張了 150 個基點。我們也受益於超高端品牌的成長。價格組合，加上上一年期間不存在供應鏈中斷成本，足以抵銷較高的投入成本和不利的外匯。我們對毛利率的強勁成長感到非常滿意，並相信我們將在下一財年繼續沿著這條道路前進。

Now, as we dig into the full results of the fiscal year, I'll start with our top line performance and share some highlights from our portfolio of brands. Leanne, will then provide additional details for fiscal '24 before providing our outlook for fiscal '25. The main growth drivers of organic net sales for Jack Daniel's; Tennessee, Apple. The Jack Daniel's; super-premium expressions, new mix and Glenglassaugh.

現在，當我們深入研究本財年的全部業績時，我將從我們的營收業績開始，並分享我們品牌組合的一些亮點。 Leanne 隨後將提供 24 財年的更多詳細信息，然後再提供我們對 25 財年的展望。傑克丹尼有機淨銷售額的主要成長動力；田納西州，蘋果公司。傑克丹尼；超優質的表達、新的組合和格蘭格拉索。

We haven't talked much about these brands in the past, but there are examples of how the consumer trends of premiumization, convenience and flavor continued to drive our business. They also illustrate the value and importance of our portfolio evolution and innovation strategy, as well as our continued geographic expansion and route to market strategy.

過去我們沒有過多談論這些品牌，但有一些例子說明了高端化、便利性和風味的消費趨勢如何繼續推動我們的業務。它們也說明了我們的產品組合演變和創新策略的價值和重要性，以及我們持續的地域擴張和市場策略路線。

The work we have done to build a diversified global portfolio focused on premium and super-premium brands provides us with many opportunities for growth even in dynamic and challenging times. Jack Daniel's Tennessee. Apple was a top performer as the brand delivered very strong double digit organic net sales growth and is now almost 900,009 liter cases. The brand was launched in 2019, just prior to the beginning of the pandemic when the closure of the on-premise and supply chain disruption significantly impacted our ability to build brand awareness.

即使在充滿活力和充滿挑戰的時代，我們為建立專注於高端和超高端品牌的多元化全球投資組合所做的工作也為我們提供了許多成長機會。傑克丹尼的田納西州。 Apple 表現最佳，該品牌實現了非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長，目前銷量已接近 900,009 公升。該品牌於 2019 年推出，就在大流行開始之前，當時本地的關閉和供應鏈中斷嚴重影響了我們建立品牌知名度的能力。

However, the supply and logistic challenges eased, we were better able to meet consumer demand for the product. Today, we're seeing strong growth in markets such as Brazil and Chile, and we've also continued to introduce the brand into new markets and had a strong launch in South Korea, in fiscal 24. Collectively, the Jack Daniel's super-premium expressions also delivered strong double digit organic net sales growth in fiscal '24.

然而，供應和物流挑戰緩解，我們能夠更好地滿足消費者對產品的需求。如今，我們看到巴西和智利等市場的強勁成長，我們也持續將該品牌引入新市場，並於第 24 財年在韓國強勢推出。在24 財年實現了強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額成長。

This growth was led by Jack Daniel's; Sinatra. Jack Daniel's; Single Barrel Rye Barrel Proof and the newest member of the bonded series, Jack Daniel's Bonded Rye. Our exclusive global travel retail offering, Jack Daniel's; American Single Malt, also contributed to the strong results.

這一增長由傑克丹尼 (Jack Daniel's) 引領；西納特拉。傑克丹尼;單桶黑麥桶裝和保稅系列的最新成員，傑克丹尼保稅黑麥。我們獨家的全球旅遊零售產品 Jack Daniel's；美國單一麥芽威士忌也為強勁業績做出了貢獻。

Over the last several years, to meet consumer preferences, we have purposely premiumize the Jack Daniel's; family of brands and elevated our whiskey credentials through innovation and specialty launches. This allowed us to offer both long-term trends of Jack Daniel's; and new friends. The opportunity to explore and discover within the Jack Daniel's; family. Of course, another trend in beverage alcohol is the continued growth of ready-to-drink beverages, specifically Spirit based RTDs.

在過去的幾年裡，為了滿足消費者的喜好，我們特意將 Jack Daniel’s 打造為高階產品。品牌系列，並透過創新和特色產品的推出提高了我們的威士忌信譽。這使我們能夠提供傑克丹尼的長期趨勢；和新朋友。有機會在 Jack Daniel's 內探索和發現；家庭。當然，飲料酒精的另一個趨勢是即飲飲料的持續成長，特別是基於烈酒的 RTD。

This trend is evident in our fiscal '24 results, with New Mix serving as the second largest positive contributor to organic net sales, growing to more than 10,000,009 liter cases in fiscal '24. The brand continued to deliver double digit organic net sales growth, benefiting from higher pricing and value share gains in the RTD category despite a challenging environment in Mexico. The third largest positive contributor to overall organic net sales was Glenglassaugh, is the brand's awareness and prestige among whiskey connoisseurs continued to grow.

這一趨勢在我們 24 財年的業績中顯而易見，New Mix 是有機淨銷售額的第二大積極貢獻者，在 24 財年增長至超過 10,000,009 公升箱。儘管墨西哥的環境充滿挑戰，但受益於 RTD 類別的更高定價和價值份額收益，該品牌繼續實現兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。對整體有機淨銷售額的第三大積極貢獻者是格蘭格拉索，該品牌在威士忌鑑賞家中的知名度和聲望持續增長。

Most notably, going less of sand and being named the 2023, whiskey of the Year, by whiskey advocate magazine. And as we've shared over the last couple of quarters, the brand continued to benefit from cask sales, particularly in Asia through its old and rail program.

最值得注意的是，它減少了沙子的使用，並被威士忌倡導雜誌評為 2023 年年度威士忌。正如我們在過去幾個季度分享的那樣，該品牌繼續受益於木桶銷售，特別是透過其舊的和鐵路計劃在亞洲。

The growth from these brands was almost entirely offset by declines in organic net sales from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey declined 5%, led by lower volumes in Japan as we transitioned to own distribution in the United States due to slowing consumer demand in the United Arab Emirates and Sub-Saharan Africa, both of which had strong comparisons given the significant rebuilding of inventory last year.

這些品牌的成長幾乎完全被傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的有機淨銷售額下降所抵消，傑克丹尼田納西威士忌下降了5%，主要是由於消費者需求放緩，我們在美國轉向自營分銷，導致日本銷量下降。

As we shared during our Investor Day in March, despite recent short-term headwinds in our industry, we believe Jack Daniel's; has a significant runway for growth and are confident in achieving our long-term ambitions. Jack Daniel's remains one of the most iconic brands in the world with solid brand health and a long-term performance track record with the Jack Daniel's family of brands grown volume at a 5% compound annual growth rate over the past 5, 10 and 30-year periods.

正如我們在三月的投資者日分享的那樣，儘管我們的行業最近出現了短期阻力，但我們相信 Jack Daniel 的；擁有重要的成長跑道，並且有信心實現我們的長期目標。傑克丹尼(Jack Daniel's) 仍然是世界上最具標誌性的品牌之一，擁有穩健的品牌健康狀況和長期業績記錄，傑克丹尼(Jack Daniel's) 品牌系列的銷量在過去5 年、10 年和30 年中以5% 的複合年增長率成長。

The fact that the brand's 5-year growth rate is the same as its 30 year growth rate means that is not slowing down. That is impressive for a brand of its size. The Jack Daniel's family of brands is a robust portfolio that expands across multiple occasions, price points and geographies.

事實上，該品牌的 5 年成長率與其 30 年成長率相同，這意味著成長速度並沒有放緩。對於同等規模的品牌來說，這是令人印象深刻的。傑克丹尼 (Jack Daniel's) 品牌系列是一個強大的產品組合，涵蓋多種場合、價位和地域。

And we believe we have strategies and plans in place to engage a new generation of legal drinking age consumers while retaining our core consumers. In addition, we are positioned to capture the global growth of American whiskey as we accelerate the geographic expansion of the Jack Daniel's family of brands.

我們相信，我們已經制定了策略和計劃來吸引新一代合法飲酒年齡的消費者，同時留住我們的核心消費者。此外，隨著我們加速傑克丹尼品牌系列的地理擴張，我們準備抓住美國威士忌的全球成長。

We continue to support the brand's health and growth through the Make It Count global campaign, McLaren Formula One sponsorship and the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD. I do want to acknowledge the impact of Jack and Coke RTD. is difficult to see in our fiscal '24 results, primarily due to the transition to Jack and Coke RTD. from our pre-existing Jack & Cola RTD business.

我們透過 Make It Count 全球活動、麥克拉倫一級方程式贊助以及 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD 繼續支持品牌的健康和發展。我確實想承認 Jack and Coke RTD 的影響。在我們的 24 財年業績中很難看到這一點，這主要是由於向 Jack and Coke RTD 的過渡。來自我們現有的 Jack & Cola RTD 業務。

Even so we continue to believe Jack and Coke is an iconic brand and a fabulous product and can build a stronger and more global foundation for the Jack Daniel's family brands. Consider for example, the Jack and Coke TD. grew to 4.5 million nine liter depletions in over 25 markets around the world in fiscal '24, of which 2 million of the cases were incremental, leading to more than 120 million cans in consumer hands.

即便如此，我們仍然相信傑克可口可樂是一個標誌性品牌和一款出色的產品，可以為傑克丹尼家族品牌建立更強大、更全球化的基礎。以 Jack and Coke TD 為例。 2024 財年，全球超過 25 個市場的 9 公升罐消耗量增加至 450 萬罐，其中 200 萬箱是增量罐，導致消費者手中超過 1.2 億罐。

Brand investment increased significantly in markets where we transitioned from & Cola to and Coke with more than half of the increase contributed by Coca-Cola, and very positive consumer response with greater than 86% of consumers indicating strong intent to repurchase Jack and Coke RTD.

在我們從& Cola 過渡到and Coke 的市場中，品牌投資顯著增加，其中一半以上的增長由可口可樂貢獻，並且消費者反應非常積極，超過86% 的消費者表示有強烈的意願重新購買Jack and Coke RTD。

Jack and Coke was a significant portfolio enhancement for us as were the additions of Gin Mare and Diplomático. In fiscal '24, Gin Mare and Diplomático, were integrated into the Brown-Forman portfolio brands. And I'm pleased to say that both brands delivered strong double digit organic net sales growth.

Jack and Coke 對我們來說是一個重大的投資組合增強，Gin Mare 和 Diplomático 的加入也是如此。在 24 財年，Gin Mare 和 Diplomático 被整合到 Brown-Forman 品牌組合中。我很高興地說，這兩個品牌都實現了強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額成長。

These brands have given us scale in Europe and enabled route-to-consumer changes such as our recent announcement for Italy's; own distribution transition. And with these brands, Brown-Forman, owns at least one of the top five brands globally and for strong growth categories, Super-Premium American Whiskey, Super-Premium Tequila, Ultra-Premium Gin and Ultra-Premium Rum.

這些品牌使我們在歐洲取得了規模，並實現了消費者路線的改變，例如我們最近宣布的義大利品牌；自己的分配過渡。憑藉這些品牌，Brown-Forman 至少擁有全球排名前五的品牌和強勁增長類別之一：超優質美國威士忌、超優質龍舌蘭酒、超優質杜松子酒和超優質朗姆酒。

We believe this portfolio evolution alongside product innovation gives us the best opportunity for long-term growth and value creation. As I close, I want to thank my Brown-Forman, colleagues, around the world for their commitment to our company values and their daily efforts to deliver our long-term ambitions throughout our 154 year history. It has been the strength of our people, the health of our portfolio and the breadth of our geographic reach that has enabled us to navigate short term uncertainty and volatility.

我們相信，這種產品組合的演變以及產品創新為我們提供了長期成長和價值創造的最佳機會。在結束演講時，我要感謝我的 Brown-Forman 同事以及世界各地的同事，感謝他們對我們公司價值觀的承諾，以及他們在我們 154 年的歷史中為實現我們的長期目標所做的日常努力。正是我們員工的力量、我們投資組合的健康以及我們地理覆蓋範圍的廣度使我們能夠應對短期的不確定性和波動性。

While we experienced a very dynamic operating environment in fiscal '24, we still believe the spirits category and Brown-Forman offer attractive growth. We delivered over 60% gross margin and a 30% operating margin, while generating strong cash flows, with high returns on capital. And we are well positioned to benefit over the long term from the evolution of our brand portfolio and the investments behind our brands and people.

雖然我們在 24 財年經歷了非常活躍的營運環境，但我們仍然相信烈酒類別和 Brown-Forman 提供有吸引力的成長。我們實現了超過 60% 的毛利率和 30% 的營業利潤率，同時產生了強勁的現金流和高資本回報率。從長遠來看，我們能夠從品牌組合的演變以及品牌和人員背後的投資中受益。

Leanne, I'll now turn the call over to you, to provide more detail on our fiscal '24 performance and our outlook for fiscal 2025.

Leanne，我現在將電話轉給您，提供有關我們 24 財年業績和 2025 財年展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝勞森，大家早安。

As Lawson has thoroughly reviewed our top line growth and the performance of our brands for the fiscal year. I will share details on our geographic performance as our business results and our outlook for fiscal 2025.

由於勞森徹底審查了我們本財年的營收成長和品牌表現。我將分享我們的地理業績的詳細信息，作為我們的業務成果和 2025 財年的展望。

First, from a geographic perspective, emerging international markets and the travel retail channel, delivered mid to high single digit organic net sales growth, respectively. Which was more than offset by organic net sales declines in the United States and the developed international markets.

首先，從地理角度來看，新興國際市場和旅遊零售通路分別實現了中高個位數的有機淨銷售額成長。這被美國和已開發國際市場的有機淨銷售額下降所抵消。

In the United States, organic net sales declined 4%, largely reflecting lower volumes due to a negative 4% impact from an estimated net change in distributor inventory. First I'll speak to the significant amount of noise, if you will, created by changes in distributor inventories in the US market for our business this fiscal year.

在美國，有機淨銷售額下降了 4%，主要反映了經銷商庫存估計淨變化 4% 的負面影響導致銷售下降。首先，如果您願意的話，我將談談本財年美國市場分銷商庫存變化對我們業務造成的大量噪音。

We have been sharing with you throughout this fiscal year. In our first half, we cycled against the significant inventory rebuild during the same period last year. As we entered our second half, takeaway trends for total distilled spirits and also for our business move below the historical mid-single digit range, as consumer demand slowed.

本財年我們一直與您分享。上半年，我們與去年同期的重大庫存重建進行了循環。隨著我們進入下半年，隨著消費者需求放緩，總蒸餾酒以及我們業務的外賣趨勢跌破了歷史中個位數範圍。

As consumer takeaway remains below its historical range. Retailers have adjusted their inventory levels in response to the slower demand and the higher interest rate environment. Distributor inventory levels were largely at normal levels throughout fiscal 2024, with movement to the low end or just below the normal range in our fourth quarter.

由於消費者外賣仍低於歷史水準。零售商調整了庫存水平，以應對需求放緩和利率上升的環境。在整個 2024 財年，經銷商庫存水準基本上處於正常水平，但在第四季度降至低端或略低於正常範圍。

While we are on this topic, I will add here that in our outlook, the expectation is that distributor inventory levels will remain consistent with their current levels.

當我們討論這個主題時，我將在此補充一點，在我們的展望中，預計經銷商庫存水準將與當前水準保持一致。

Now. to turn to what we believe are the more important indicators of the health of our business in this market. While total distilled spirits trends continue to be below their historic norms in the low single digit range.

現在。轉向我們認為是我們在這個市場上的業務健康狀況的更重要指標。雖然蒸餾酒總量趨勢持續低於歷史標準，處於較低的個位數範圍內。

Our portfolio of brands is holding share. Consumer demand for US whiskey, particularly super premium is strong as US whiskey remain one of the largest contributors to total distilled spirits value growth in Nielsen. In the whiskey category, consumers continue to seek premiumness, which drove the growth in our super premium, Jack Daniel's offerings.

我們的品牌組合持有份額。消費者對美國威士忌（尤其是超優質威士忌）的需求強勁，因為美國威士忌仍然是尼爾森蒸餾酒總價值成長的最大貢獻者之一。在威士忌類別中，消費者不斷追求優質，這推動了我們超優質傑克丹尼產品的成長。

Such as, Jack Daniel's Single Barrel, Rye Barrel Proof. Jack Daniel's Sinatra and Jack Daniel's Bonded Rye, all of which delivered strong growth. This growth partially offset the decline in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey volumes.

例如，Jack Daniel's Single Barrel、Rye Barrel Proof。傑克丹尼的西納特拉和傑克丹尼的保稅黑麥，所有這些都實現了強勁的增長。這一增長部分抵消了傑克丹尼田納西威士忌銷量的下降。

In addition, our founding brand Old Forester delivered another year of double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by strong consumer demand. The [Woodford] Reserve was negatively impacted by an estimated net change in distributor inventory levels. From a depletion based and takeaway perspective, the brand remains healthy with strong consumer demand in our developed international markets, collectively, organic net sales declined 5% in the fiscal year and was negatively impacted by 6% due to an estimated net change in distributor inventories.

此外，在強勁消費者需求的推動下，我們的創始品牌 Old Forester 再次實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額成長。 [伍德福德]儲備受到經銷商庫存水準估計淨變化的負面影響。從消耗和外賣的角度來看，該品牌保持健康，在我們發達的國際市場上消費需求強勁，總體而言，本財年的有機淨銷售額下降了5%，並且由於經銷商庫存的估計淨變化而受到6% 的負面影響。

In Germany, our largest developed international markets, we had been continuously gaining value share, which drove 7% organic net sales growth. Growth from Glenglassaugh cast sales in Singapore, the continued launch of Jack Daniel's Tennessee, Apple in South Korea and the integration of Diplomático were more than offset by the decline in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, largely related to the route-to-consumer transition in Japan.

在我們最大的已開發國際市場德國，我們一直在不斷獲得價值份額，這推動了 7% 的有機淨銷售成長。格蘭格拉索在新加坡的銷售成長、傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的持續推出、蘋果在韓國的推出以及Diplomático 的整合，都被傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的下滑所抵消，這在很大程度上與向消費者的轉型有關在日本。

Japan as one of the world's largest spirits markets, with a significant footprint and a leading position in premium plus whiskey. And we have now transitioned successfully to own distribution on April 1, 2024, representing the 16, market where we own and operate the distribution of our portfolio.

日本作為世界上最大的烈酒市場之一，在優質威士忌領域擁有重要的足跡和領先地位。我們現已於 2024 年 4 月 1 日成功過渡到自有分銷，代表我們擁有並經營我們的投資組合分銷的第 16 個市場。

Though, there are short term impacts to our P&L, as we increase the ownership of our route to market we believe these investments will lead to unlocking growth for our broader portfolio brands. The travel retail channel, which has returned to its [pre-COVID] level of 4% of our organic net sales delivered 6% growth, driven by strong double digit growth from our super premium brands, particularly our exclusive global travel retail offering.

不過，隨著我們增加市場路線的所有權，我們相信這些投資將帶來我們更廣泛的投資組合品牌的成長，這對我們的損益有短期影響。在我們的超高端品牌，特別是我們獨家的全球旅遊零售產品強勁的兩位數增長的推動下，旅遊零售通路已恢復到[新冠疫情前]有機淨銷售額4% 的水平，實現了6%的增長。

Jack Daniel's American Single Malt, along with Woodford Reserve and Glenglassaugh. This growth was partially offset by a decline in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey. And wrapping up our geographic commentary with emerging international markets that collectively increased organic net sales by 8% for the fiscal year, despite a 12% headwind from an estimated net change in distributor inventories, which was largely driven by the lumpiness of how the supply chains were refilled in these markets in the second half of the prior year.

傑克丹尼美國單一麥芽威士忌，以及伍德福德珍藏威士忌和格蘭格拉索威士忌。這一增長被傑克丹尼田納西州蜂蜜銷量的下降部分抵消。最後，我們對新興國際市場的地理評論進行了總結，新興國際市場在本財年的有機淨銷售額總體增長了8%，儘管分銷商庫存的估計淨變化帶來了12% 的阻力，而這主要是由於供應鏈的混亂性造成的。

Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple drove the organic net sales growth, most notably in Brazil and Chile, due to our ability to meet the strong consumer demand with the return of consistent supply. In Mexico, as Lawson, mentioned, New Mix continued to deliver strong double digit growth, as the brand continued to benefit from our pricing strategy and gain share of the RTD category.

傑克丹尼爾的田納西蘋果公司推動了有機淨銷售額的成長，尤其是在巴西和智利，因為我們有能力透過恢復穩定的供應來滿足強勁的消費者需求。正如 Lawson 所提到的，在墨西哥，New Mix 繼續實現強勁的兩位數成長，因為該品牌繼續受益於我們的定價策略並獲得 RTD 類別的份額。

This growth was partially offset by declines in our Jimador and Herradura, particularly Herradura, Ultra largely due to the challenging macro environment. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, growth was led by [Turkey] as momentum in the premium whiskey category continued.

這一增長被我們的 Jimador 和 Herradura 的下降部分抵消，尤其是 Herradura、Ultra，這主要是由於充滿挑戰的宏觀環境。傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的成長由[土耳其]引領，因為優質威士忌類別的勢頭持續強勁。

Moving to our gross profit growth and gross margin expansion of 150 basis points for the full fiscal year. reported gross profit increased 1% with organic growth of 2%. The successful efforts of executing our pricing strategy and reducing cost led to reported gross margin expansion of 150 basis points, which was in line with our expectations. In total, our favorable price mix and the absence of supply chain mitigation costs more than offset higher input costs and the negative effects of foreign exchange.

整個財年的毛利成長和毛利率將增加 150 個基點。報告稱，毛利成長 1%，有機成長 2%。執行我們的定價策略和降低成本的成功努力導致毛利率增加了 150 個基點，這符合我們的預期。總的來說，我們有利的價格組合和缺乏供應鏈緩解成本足以抵消更高的投入成本和外匯的負面影響。

Now to operating expenses, our total reported operating expenses increased 1% with organic increasing 7%, which again was in line with our expectations. The increase in reported operating expenses was driven by increased SG&A expense, advertising expense growth and the negative effect of foreign exchange.

現在說到營運費用，我們報告的總營運費用增加了 1%，有機成長 7%，這再次符合我們的預期。報告營運費用的增加是由於SG&A費用增加、廣告費用成長以及外匯的負面影響。

The increase was largely offset by the absence of a non-cash impairment charge for the Finlandia brand name in the prior year, as well as the absence of post closing costs and expenses in connection with the acquisitions of Diplomático and Gin Mare, in the prior year.

這一成長在很大程度上被上一年芬蘭迪亞品牌的非現金減損費用以及收購 Diplomático 和 Gin Mare 相關的交割後成本和費用所抵消。

Our advertising expenses, as we have shared with you throughout the year, had abnormal seasonality due to the phasing of our investments behind the launch of Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD. in the first half of the fiscal year, that moderated through the year, with reported and organic advertising expense growth of 4% and 2%, respectively for the fiscal year.

正如我們全年與您分享的那樣，由於我們在推出傑克丹尼和可口可樂 RTD 後分階段進行投資，因此我們的廣告支出具有異常的季節性。在本財年上半年，這種情況有所放緩，本財年的報告廣告費用和自然廣告費用分別增加了 4% 和 2%。

Reported SG&A expenses increased 11% in fiscal 2024, led by higher compensation and benefit related expenses and our commitment to the Brown-Forman foundation to support division of transformative community impact.

報告的 SG&A 費用在 2024 財年增加了 11%，主要是由於薪酬和福利相關費用增加，以及我們對 Brown-Forman 基金會支持變革性社區影響分工的承諾。

Our organic SG&A expenses grew 7% as we continue to invest behind our people and strategic route-to-consumer initiatives. Again, we anticipate that these investments, which have short term impacts on our P&L, will unlock future growth. In total, reported operating income increased 25% and organic operating income declined 2% in fiscal 2024. These results led to a 32% diluted earnings per share increase to $2.14 per share.

隨著我們繼續投資於我們的員工和消費者導向的策略路線計劃，我們的有機 SG&A 支出增加了 7%。同樣，我們預期這些對我們的損益有短期影響的投資將釋放未來的成長。總體而言，2024 財年報告的營業收入成長了 25%，有機營業收入下降了 2%。

And lastly, to our fiscal 2025 outlook, we believe our business is continuing its path back towards our longer-term norms, following the significant multiyear disruption related to our supply chain, two years, of exceptionally high demand and the current impact of higher inflation and interest rates on the consumer and trade.

最後，對於我們的 2025 財年展望，我們相信，在經歷了與我們的供應鏈相關的多年重大中斷、兩年來異常高的需求以及當前通膨上升的影響之後，我們的業務正在繼續回歸長期正常水平以及消費者和貿易的利率。

We remain confident in the strength of our portfolio that is well positioned to capitalize on the consumer trend of premiumization that excites existing consumers and convenience and flavor that provides access points to new consumers, along with our pricing strategy and the further globalization of our entire portfolio across vast geographies.

我們對我們的產品組合的實力仍然充滿信心，我們的產品組合能夠很好地利用高端化的消費趨勢，激發現有消費者的興趣，以及為新消費者提供接觸點的便利和風味，以及我們的定價策略和整個產品組合的進一步全球化跨越廣闊的地域。

We expect that the operating environment ahead will remain volatile with global macro economic and geopolitical uncertainties. In this environment, we are not forecasting significant changes in trade inventories as the impacts from inflation and higher interest rates on the behavior of the consumer and trade are expected to continue.

我們預計，由於全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定性，未來的經營環境將持續波動。在這種環境下，我們預計貿易庫存不會發生重大變化，因為通貨膨脹和利率上升對消費者和貿易行為的影響預計將持續下去。

We do believe we have now experienced the majority of the movements in inventories across the distributor retailer and consumer supply chain, and that we will benefit from having a full year of growth from our outstanding new brands of Gin Mare and Diplomático .

我們確實相信，我們現在已經經歷了分銷零售商和消費者供應鏈中庫存的大部分變動，並且我們將受益於我們出色的新品牌 Gin Mare 和 Diplomático 的全年增長。

Therefore, we expect organic net sales growth in the 2% to 4% range, driven by our emerging and developed international markets. Similar to fiscal 2024, we expect fiscal 2025, to be a year of two halfs and our first half on a year-over-year basis, we will still be comparing against the strong shipments in a few emerging international markets, as well as lapping stronger shipments associated with the execution of our pricing strategy.

因此，在新興和已開發國際市場的推動下，我們預計有機淨銷售額成長將在 2% 至 4% 範圍內。與 2024 財年類似，我們預計 2025 財年將是上半年的一年，與去年同期相比，我們仍將與一些新興國際市場的強勁出貨量進行比較，並超越與我們定價策略的執行相關的更強勁的出貨量。

We expect the second half of the year to be stronger, which is reflected in our guidance. We believe we will benefit from price mix through the evolution of our portfolio and our revenue growth management activities. And while costs will continue to benefit from lower agave prices, we expect the benefit will be more than offset by the impact of inflation on our input costs and lower production volumes.

我們預計下半年會更加強勁，這反映在我們的指導下。我們相信，透過我們的產品組合和收入成長管理活動的發展，我們將從價格組合中受益。雖然成本將繼續受益於較低的龍舌蘭價格，但我們預計，通貨膨脹對我們的投入成本和產量下降的影響將足以抵消這種好處。

Our outlook, for organic operating expenses reflect continued investment behind our brands and our people leading to the growth generally in line with our top line growth. Based on the above, we anticipate organic operating income growth in the 2% to 4% range. We also expect our effective tax rate to be in the range of approximately 21% to 23%.

我們對有機營運費用的展望反映了我們對品牌和員工的持續投資，導致成長與我們的營收成長基本一致。基於上述情況，我們預期有機營業收入成長在 2% 至 4% 範圍內。我們也預計有效稅率約為 21% 至 23%。

We will continue to fully invest behind our business to meet what we believe will be the future consumer demand for our brands over the long term. Therefore, in fiscal 2025, we estimate our capital expenditures will be in the range of $195 million to $205 million for the full year.

我們將繼續全力投資我們的業務，以滿足我們認為未來消費者對我們品牌的長期需求。因此，在2025財年，我們預計全年資本支出將在1.95億美元至2.05億美元之間。

And lastly, as a reminder, in fiscal 2025, we will begin to reflect our equity share of the Duckhorn, portfolio's earnings or losses as a line item below the operating income line of our P&L based on the equity method. In summary, we believe we have navigated the highly dynamic operating environment in fiscal 2024.

最後，提醒一下，在 2025 財年，我們將開始根據權益法，將我們在 Duckhorn 中的股權份額、投資組合的收益或損失作為一個項目反映在損益表營業收入線下方。總之，我們相信我們已經在 2024 財年應對了高度動態的營運環境。

Maintaining our growing market share in some of our largest markets, including the US, and from a depletion base perspective, our full year results came in in line with our expectations and consistent with our long-term growth algorithm. It was great to see many of you in person during our Investor Day in March from there, you may recall that we shared that we believe our business is healthy and the issues impacting our top-line growth are temporary and not structural. Which we hope we have clearly shared are largely related to changes in inventory levels.

在包括美國在內的一些最大市場中保持不斷增長的市場份額，從消耗基數的角度來看，我們的全年業績符合我們的預期，也符合我們的長期成長演算法。很高興在三月的投資者日期間親自見到你們中的許多人，你們可能還記得我們曾說過，我們相信我們的業務是健康的，影響我們營收成長的問題是暫時的，而不是結構性的。我們希望我們已經明確分享的內容很大程度上與庫存水準的變化有關。

We are confident with the support of our 5,700 employees who are incredibly committed to Brown-Forman and the opportunities we see for our portfolio brands and our ability to achieve our fiscal 2025, outlook as well as our long-term ambitions.

我們對 5,700 名員工的支持充滿信心，他們對 Brown-Forman 非常忠誠，我們對我們的投資組合品牌所看到的機會以及我們實現 2025 財年、前景和長期目標的能力充滿信心。

This concludes our prepared remarks, please open the line for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束，請打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Bryan Spillane, Bank of America.

布萊恩·斯皮蘭，美國銀行。

Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, guys.

嘿，謝謝，接線生。早上好傢伙。

I guess just just a couple of quick ones questions, make probably more clarifications, but on I guess the first one can you give me you mentioned ingredient costs as on inflationary for next year. Is that like corn, I know we have obsessed so much about Agave in barrels, but I just wanted to kind of clarify just what it is that that's moving against?

我想只是幾個簡單的問題，可能需要做出更多澄清，但我想在第一個問題上，您能否給我您提到的明年通貨膨脹的原料成本。這就像玉米一樣嗎？

So Bryan, it's Leanne. And the things that we have going again as a tailwind for us will be the agave, which we've talked about many times is kind of going from that 28 to 30 [Mexican pesos] per kilo, up at the high. We've now seen down to as low as nine pesos per kilo in June, depending on the quality of it and also Bryan, we're continuing to expect a lower prices in the shorter term, but still above the pre-pandemic averages.

布萊恩，是莉安。我們再次推動的因素將是龍舌蘭，我們已經多次討論過龍舌蘭的價格從每公斤 28 墨西哥比索上漲到 30 墨西哥比索，處於高位。現在，我們已經看到 6 月份的價格已低至每公斤 9 比索，具體取決於其質量，還有布萊恩，我們繼續預計短期內價格會較低，但仍高於大流行前的平均水平。

Where we're seeing some increases are related to our glass, even though we have lower natural gas and diesel prices that are slowing the rate of inflation. We're still expecting that in the US where the vast majority of our glass comes from it will be 2% to 3% increase.

我們看到一些成長與我們的玻璃有關，儘管我們的天然氣和柴油價格較低，從而減緩了通貨膨脹率。我們仍然預計，在我們絕大多數玻璃來自的美國，價格將會成長 2% 到 3%。

And then again with transportation, that's kind of good that's going to be in the low single digits. So what will also be what we talked about in our prepared remarks, higher inflation on our costs, but then also the costs associated to lower production volumes. That's all about us working to return to our more normal levels and in working capital on our balance sheet. What we've talked about a lot over time if the commodity cost content to be high with made, we've talked about adjustments in our infrastructure that we believe will help to offset some of that commodity costs, but we still expect it to be high as well.

再說一次，在交通方面，這很好，但會是低個位數。因此，我們在準備好的演講中也談到了我們的成本通膨上升，以及與產量下降相關的成本。這就是我們努力恢復到更正常的水平以及資產負債表上的營運資本的全部內容。隨著時間的推移，如果商品成本含量很高，我們已經討論過許多基礎設施的調整，我們相信這將有助於抵消部分商品成本，但我們仍然預期它會也高。

And then Lawson, maybe can you just give us a perspective as you're looking forward, I guess this year, you know that the category has been soft. Is your expectation in term?

然後勞森，也許你可以給我們一個你展望未來的視角，我想今年，你知道這個類別一直很軟。你的期望在期限內嗎？

I'm really. But if we're more focused on American whiskey is the expectation that, the current trends hold for next year, do you expect that the category to accelerate?

我真的。但如果我們更關注美國威士忌，那麼目前的趨勢將持續到明年，您預計該類別會加速發展嗎？

And and just to tie that Lawson, can you talk a little bit about the amount of inventory, the industry inventory kind of sitting, I guess, aging at this point and whether we're at risk of, like an oversupply situation. We've had that question a couple of times. So it would be great to sort of get your perspective on it?

為了聯繫勞森，您能否談談庫存量、行業庫存狀況，我猜，目前正在老化，以及我們是否面臨供應過剩的風險。我們已經問過這個問題好幾次了。那麼如果能了解一下您對此的看法會很棒嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

I mean a few things one US whiskey and Tequila, which are our two biggest categories, continue to be the healthiest part of TDS. So that may mean that is a good thing, but TDS has been bouncing along in that sort of 1% range now for what nine months, something like that. So at it, it hasn't really changed a whole lot. So it's obviously been a tough year for the consumer and tough year for us.

我的意思是，美國威士忌和龍舌蘭酒是我們最大的兩個類別，它們仍然是 TDS 中最健康的部分。所以這可能意味著這是一件好事，但 TDS 已經在 1% 的範圍內反彈了九個月了，類似的情況。因此，它並沒有真正改變太多。因此，對消費者來說，這顯然是艱難的一年，對我們來說也是艱難的一年。

I will one thing I think that's important to hit. Leanne, said it a bit in her opening remarks. And I think it's the sort of question of the day, is the changes is the slowdown structural in some way or another where spirits demand, which COVID aside, was been in that 4% to 5% range for decades and decades, or is it largely based on timing, really difficult comps and the inventory issues on it?

我會做一件我認為很重要的事。 Leanne在開場白中說了一點。我認為這是當今的問題，這些變化是烈酒需求以某種方式出現結構性放緩，除了新冠疫情之外，幾十年來一直在 4% 到 5% 的範圍內，或者是很大程度上是基於時間安排，真的很難比較和庫存問題嗎？

I do believe, the big three that everyone talks about GLP-1 cannabis and [Gen Z]. They are headwinds that are looming in the long term, but I don't think that really has much if anything to do with the current state of the consumer or the current state of the spirits business in the US.

我確實相信，每個人都在談論 GLP-1 大麻和 [Gen Z] 的三巨頭。從長遠來看，它們是迫在眉睫的逆風，但我認為這與美國當前的消費者狀況或烈酒行業的現狀沒有太大關係。

And the reason I say that is when you look at TDS in say, in Nielsen. I mean it was going along actually pretty well. And then late summer, early fall, it fell sharply and it caught everyone in our industry and including you all, I think everyone got caught up in it and was surprised a bit by it.

我這麼說的原因是當你查看尼爾森的 TDS 時。我的意思是，事情實際上進展得很好。然後夏末秋初，它急劇下跌，它吸引了我們行業的每個人，包括你們所有人，我想每個人都被捲入其中並對此感到有點驚訝。

But I really do believe that it's really driven by inflation for the most part. And then there was a level of demand that got pulled forward during COVID and where that's the consumer element of it that we talked about last quarter, a lot on this conference call where consumers had an extra bottle or two sitting in their cabinet at home, and it's taken some time to to work through that.

但我確實相信這在很大程度上是由通貨膨脹驅動的。然後，在新冠疫情期間，需求水準提高，這就是我們上季度討論的消費者因素，在這次電話會議上，消費者在家裡的櫃子裡多放了一兩瓶，解決這個問題需要一些時間。

And so I'm just not a believer that the things like cannabis have a lot to do with the current state out there if TDS went from 5 to 4.5 to [4], and you saw the sort of gradual weakening, it would be quite honestly, more worried than than I am now based on every trend that we can follow.

所以我不相信像大麻這樣的東西與當前的狀態有很大關係，如果 TDS 從 5 到 4.5 再到 [4]，你會看到這種逐漸減弱的情況，那將是相當大的。 ，根據我們可以遵循的每一個趨勢，比我現在更擔心。

So and then your other question about industry whiskey supply. I have seen a few people write things about that in the last few months. So it's something we track internally and have been for a long, long time as part of our planning processes. And a lot of it has to do with what you think the demand is going to be going forward, obviously.

那你關於工業威士忌供應的另一個問題。在過去的幾個月裡，我看到一些人寫了相關的文章。因此，這是我們內部追蹤的內容，並且長期以來一直作為我們規劃流程的一部分。顯然，這很大程度上與您認為未來的需求有關。

So for a long long time whiskey wasn't growing in the United States. It has for the last 12 or 13 years, but we went through that 40 year window or didn't grow at all. And so supply and demand or kind of equal, I think it depends on what you think the forward looking demand number is going to be, but it doesn't seem to be that far out of line for us.

因此很長一段時間美國都沒有種植威士忌。過去 12 或 13 年一直如此，但我們經歷了 40 年的窗口期，或者根本沒有成長。因此，供給和需求或說是相等的，我認為這取決於你對前瞻性需求數字的看法，但對我們來說，這似乎並沒有那麼離譜。

We actually kind of have a different point of view on that than some of the folks that have written that. I do think it's important to note too, the majority of the inventory that is out there is from the larger suppliers. There's a lot that's been written about the number of craft producers that have multiplied many times over the last over the last decade.

事實上，我們對此的看法與一些寫過這篇文章的人有所不同。我認為值得注意的是，大部分庫存都來自較大的供應商。關於工藝品生產商的數量在過去十年中成倍增長的文章有很多。

I don't really that's not really what I that's not a worry about, but that's not where I think the oversupply, if there is much is coming from the big players. I mean, it's in whiskey, it's you know who they are, but it's the big players, that have been continuing to build for for a long term growth and then they're behaving rationally for the most part and I think come so I just don't see there being that big disconnect between supply and demand.

我真的不認為這不是我真正不擔心的，但我認為這不是供應過剩的地方，如果有很多來自大公司的話。我的意思是，在威士忌領域，你知道他們是誰，但這是大玩家，他們一直在繼續為長期增長而努力，然後他們在很大程度上表現得很理性，我想來了，所以我只是不認為供需之間有如此大的脫節。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Nadine Saewat, Bernstein.

納丁·薩瓦特，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

One short term and one long term from me. On the short term, coming back to inventories, obviously large headwind in this quarter. Could you talk about how this compares versus your expectations on the last conference call and what has been the cause for the difference there? And a little bit more color on where your inventories are today?

對我來說，一個是短期的，一個是長期的。短期來看，回到庫存，本季明顯面臨較大阻力。您能否談談這與您上次電話會議的預期相比如何，以及造成差異的原因是什麼？還有更多關於您今天的庫存狀況的資訊嗎？

I understand the certain moving parts, but you feel they're fully get the right level right sized to that right level going forward. And then my long-term question coming back to the US. What's your best assessment of where underlying spirits net sales growth for the US, today is for the industry, obviously, Nielsen covering some very different channels. And what would you need to see in your opinion for the industry to get back to mid-single digits. Is it a more favorable macro environment for the consumer or is it something else? Thank you.

我理解某些移動部分，但你覺得它們完全達到了正確的水平，正確的尺寸，以達到正確的水平。然後我的長期問題又回到了美國。您對美國烈酒淨銷售成長的最佳評估是什麼，今天對於該行業來說，顯然，尼爾森涵蓋了一些非常不同的管道。您認為，要使該行業恢復到中個位數，您需要看到什麼。是對消費者更有利的宏觀環境還是其他原因？謝謝。

I'll take the inventory question again, kind of pointing to what we have talked about that our depletion delay based results came in line with our expectations first, I'll point you to Schedule-B for fiscal 2024, depletions are ahead of shipments on our full strength portfolio and even to a greater extent than when they then when we reported in our third quarter call.

我將再次討論庫存問題，有點指向我們已經討論過的內容，即我們基於消耗延遲的結果首先符合我們的預期，我將向您指出 2024 財年的 Schedule-B，消耗提前於發貨我們的全部實力投資組合，甚至比我們在第三季電話會議中報告時更大的程度。

In the US, we know rate retailers have adjusted their inventory levels in response to the consumer takeaway trends being below their historic mid single digit range. And with the higher inflation rate environment. We've been talking about for the entire fiscal year, that at the distributor level, our distributor inventories have been within that normal targeted range as we have gone through the majority of this fiscal year.

在美國，我們知道零售商已經調整了庫存水平，以應對消費者外賣趨勢低於歷史中個位數範圍。且隨著通膨率較高的環境。我們一直在談論整個財年，在經銷商層面，我們的經銷商庫存一直在正常的目標範圍內，因為我們已經度過了本財年的大部分時間。

However, in the fourth quarter in the US, the distributor levels did unexpectedly for us dropped to the low end or just below their normal targeted range. We're continuing to partner really closely with them as we have been all year on probably even more so now, and then I will say, we do believe we've now experienced the majority of the movement in the inventories across the distributor retailer and consumer supply chain. And our kind of thoughts on that were in our prepared remarks, we have that built into the guidance that we've provided.

然而，在美國第四季度，我們的經銷商水準卻出乎意料地跌至低端或略低於正常目標範圍。我們將繼續與他們密切合作，因為我們一整年都是這樣，現在可能更是如此，然後我會說，我們確實相信我們現在已經經歷了分銷零售商和庫存的大部分變動。 。我們對此的想法已在我們準備好的發言中，我們已將其納入我們提供的指導中。

And then I'll turn it over to Lawson, for the second part of the question.

然後我將把問題的第二部分交給勞森。

So the question being a little bit over the longer term where when and what's it going to take essentially to get the US market back on track again. It's very difficult to predict what is going to happen with consumer spending. And the one thing we know for sure is the comps are going to get easier. So that even not only ours, but even in the Nielsen number world that, as I mentioned earlier, that sort of August, September falloff, we're coming up upon that.

因此，問題是從長遠來看，何時以及需要做什麼才能讓美國市場再次回到正軌。很難預測消費者支出將會發生什麼事。我們確信的一件事是比賽將會變得更容易。因此，不僅是我們的數位世界，而且即使在尼爾森數位世界中，正如我之前提到的，這種八月、九月的衰退，我們也會遇到這種情況。

And so I hate talking about easier comps, but the reality is that they will ease up. I do believe, given partially the way you call it underlying or depletion based results, are better than shipments. This largely is an inventory correction issue. That includes the consumer, as we said just a minute ago, the consumers got to work through It's the bottles that are sitting at home.

所以我討厭談論更簡單的比賽，但現實是它們會變得更輕鬆。我確實相信，部分考慮到你稱之為基礎或基於消耗的結果，比發貨更好。這很大程度是庫存修正問題。這包括消費者，正如我們剛才所說，消費者必須處理家裡的瓶子。

We talked about this on the last call, and I know a few of you all did some analysis on this and sort of agreed, I think with our statements that it was going to take about a year to work through that consumer inventory. And so we're coming up on that year, lapping period in a few months. So it's difficult to predict and consumer spending is going to need to even improve across all CPG has not even just spirits. I mean, the consumer's been heard everywhere.

我們在上次電話會議上討論了這個問題，我知道你們中的一些人都對此進行了一些分析，並且有點同意，我認為根據我們的聲明，需要大約一年的時間來處理消費者庫存。因此，我們即將迎來那一年，幾個月後的迭代期。因此，很難預測，所有消費品的消費者支出都需要改善，而不僅僅是烈酒。我的意思是，消費者的聲音隨處可見。

So but some came out, if you pin me down and said, What do you really think. I think we would say that sometime in the fall or into the winter, that bump trends will improve,

所以，如果你把我壓住並說，你到底怎麼想，就會有一些人出來。我想我們會說，在秋天或冬天的某個時候，凹凸趨勢將會改善，

And only thing I'll add is, and we've said it in our prepared remarks again, but just to emphasize it in the US and some of our other key markets, we have been able to maintain market share in this volatile environment. So we feel good about with all the noise that's in the system that our brands are maintaining the share and in the marketplace.

我唯一要補充的是，我們在準備好的發言中再次說過，但只是為了在美國和我們的其他一些主要市場強調這一點，我們能夠在這種動蕩的環境中保持市場份額。因此，我們對我們的品牌在市場上保持份額的系統中的所有噪音感到滿意。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

羅伯特·莫斯科，TD·考恩。

This is Seamus Cassidy, on for Rob Moskow. Thanks for taking the question. So given the target that you reiterated your March Investor Day to double fiscal '22, operating income by fiscal '32. Fiscal '25, expected to be another below algo year. I'm curious how you see this trending beyond fiscal '25 and maybe where you expect to get operating leverage in the out years, given that you'll need to invest more this year in terms of advertising and promotion? Thank you.

我是謝莫斯·卡西迪，替補羅布·莫斯科。感謝您提出問題。因此，鑑於您重申了 3 月投資者日的目標，即 22 財年營業收入到 32 財年翻倍。 25 財年預計將是另一個低於演算法的年份。我很好奇您如何看待 25 財年之後的這一趨勢，考慮到今年您需要在廣告和促銷方面進行更多投資，您希望在未來幾年獲得營運槓桿？謝謝。

We always knew that ambition was it was not easy, quite lofty a little bit, particularly the last couple of years or really last year for the most part has has been difficult, but looked at 2032, still a fair ways away. We still believe in the portfolio and everything that we are doing has the growth characteristics to deliver on those those goals. And so our long, we're not changing our long-term growth algorithm at all, and you asked about leverage. I know we are working very hard to get some gross margin leverage around here.

我們一直都知道，雄心壯志並不容易，有點遠大，尤其是過去幾年，或者實際上去年的大部分時間都是困難的，但展望 2032 年，仍然有很長的路要走。我們仍然相信我們的投資組合，並且我們所做的一切都具有實現這些目標的成長特徵。因此，我們的長期成長演算法根本不會改變，而您詢問了槓桿率。我知道我們正在非常努力地在這裡獲得一些毛利率槓桿。

And so I think that's going to take continued work, but continued, you've heard me say before low and slow. I want to continue that and everyone is we're all on board and focused on that right now. Thankfully, even in the current environment that we're in today, we still think that pricing is a lever and all this to continue to generate growth and it's actually coming through in the numbers.

所以我認為這需要繼續努力，但繼續，你之前聽過我說過，要低沉而緩慢。我想繼續這樣做，每個人都同意，現在我們都專注於這一點。值得慶幸的是，即使在我們今天所處的當前環境下，我們仍然認為定價是一個槓桿，所有這一切都可以繼續產生成長，而且它實際上已經在數字中體現出來。

So a little bit of gross margin improvement with expense controls that make sure that our operating expenses don't grow at a rate greater than our sales and that's the model, we believe in and we'll continue to do. we're only two years into this 10-year plan. And so there's there's plenty of time to accelerate.

因此，透過費用控制來提高毛利率，確保我們的營運費用不會以高於銷售額的速度成長，這就是我們相信並將繼續這樣做的模式。我們的十年計畫才剛實施兩年。所以有足夠的時間來加速。

That's helpful, thanks. And then maybe just one quick follow-up. You've sort of talked about your excitement about a return to annual growth in the spirits industry. But you also sort of called out inflation as something that's been a headwind for consumers. So I'm curious how you're thinking about that in fiscal '25?

這很有幫助，謝謝。然後也許只是一個快速的後續行動。您談到了您對烈酒行業恢復年度增長的興奮之情。但您也指出通膨對消費者來說是一種阻力。所以我很好奇你在 25 財年如何看待這個問題？

Well, look, I mean, we've kind of already hit that. I mean the consumer demand is normalizing. We all know we all. But I mean, keep in mind with 2.5 years' worth of double digit growth. Where every unit was difficult to drop, all that to the bottom line because of all the things know about, but it was outstanding for a period of time. I think it's just a return to that normalization a little bit.

嗯，看，我的意思是，我們已經做到了這一點。我的意思是消費者需求正在正常化。我們都知道我們都知道。但我的意思是，請記住 2.5 年的兩位數成長。每個單位都很難下降，所有這些都達到了底線，因為所有的事情都知道，但它在一段時間內表現出色。我認為這只是稍微回歸正常化。

I think if we're honest with ourselves a year ago, we thought that meant it was just the market was going to hit go back to that 4% to 5% range and stay there and it's taken a year of being below that to sort of correct this consumer inventory thing. So the timing we'll see, but I still feel pretty confident that the long-term outlook for spirits in this country is excellent and nothing really has structurally changed.

我認為，如果一年前我們對自己誠實的話，我們認為這意味著市場將會回到 4% 到 5% 的範圍並保持在那裡，並且花了一年的時間才低於這個水平。消費者庫存問題。因此，我們將拭​​目以待，但我仍然非常有信心，認為這個國家烈酒的長期前景非常好，並且沒有任何真正的結構性變化。

Does that answer your question?

這是否回答你的問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

勞倫·利伯曼，巴克萊銀行。

I guess, completely hounding on what you guys have already been talking about. But the notion that the inventory cleanup, both distributors and consumers retailers and so on is complete, it is very different than what we're hearing from others in the industry.

我想，完全是在追尋你們已經在談論的事情。但經銷商和消費者零售商等的庫存清理已經完成的概念與我們從業內其他人那裡聽到的非常不同。

So not taking issue at all with your view, Lawson on the long-term health of the industry that nothing structural has changed, really just getting at the question of the longevity of the correction and the visibility that there is.So I'm just curious what is it that you guys are seeing or your reason to believe that that inventory correction throughout the Inova and distributor retailer consumer landscape is complete?

因此，勞森對您的觀點根本沒有異議，勞森認為該行業的長期健康狀況沒有任何結構性變化，實際上只是解決修正的長期性和可見性的問題。或者你們有理由相信整個Inova 和分銷零售商消費者領域的庫存調整已經完成？

And this goes back, Lauren, to what we've been saying for quite some time now with all the disruption that has been in our system that started with the pandemic and the glass supply challenges, logistics challenges we continue to be in a significantly different position than most of our comp set because of the glass supply challenges that we have gotten into.

勞倫，這又回到了我們長期以來所說的，從大流行開始，我們的系統受到了所有的破壞，玻璃供應挑戰、物流挑戰我們仍然處於一個截然不同的境地。方面的挑戰，我們的地位比我們大多數競爭對手都要高。

We've talked about this over time how we prioritize brands, we prioritize markets to rebuild and refill our supply chain. And even in '24, there was lumpiness that we had to compare against, especially in the fourth quarter when we were in the prior year where we were reloading our emerging international markets and we have had to comp against that, we've come up to normal inventory levels where others were in a different place and may be coming down.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經討論過如何優先考慮品牌、優先考慮市場來重建和補充我們的供應鏈。即使在 24 年，我們也必須進行比較，特別是在第四季度，當時我們正在重新加載新興國際市場，我們必須對此進行比較，我們已經達到了到正常的庫存水平，而其他人則在不同的地方，並且可能會下降。

And so we really felt like we have been there and been closely aligned with our partners in the US distribution system for us, it really was about that unexpected drop in there in their inventory rate levels in the fourth quarter, as I got kind of down to the absolutely the lowest end and below just below their targeted inventory range.

因此，我們真的覺得我們已經在那裡，並與我們在美國分銷系統中的合作夥伴密切合作，這確實是因為他們的庫存率水平在第四季度意外下降，因為我有點沮喪絕對是最低端並低於其目標庫存範圍。

So that was kind of for us the [miss] and what was unexpected as we continue to do our work. We continue to believe the vast majority of that movement is now behind us, but we're definitely not saying that all of it is behind us as it relates to the US.

所以這對我們來說是一種[錯過]，也是我們繼續工作時意想不到的事情。我們仍然相信，絕大多數運動現在已經過去，但我們絕對不是說所有運動都已經過去，因為它與美國有關。

So again, all of that would be included in our guidance.

同樣，所有這些都將包含在我們的指導中。

In understanding, the distributor side of it and the retailer is fairly clean. And we have data. Again, the biggest question is the health of the consumer itself. And when that comes back and look, everybody is going to have a different opinion on that. And I don't have a great crystal ball any better than you do on. We're just I won't walk through the consumer example again.

據了解，分銷商和零售商方面是相當乾淨的。我們有數據。同樣，最大的問題是消費者本身的健康。當回過頭來看，每個人都會對此有不同的看法。我沒有比你更好的水晶球。我們只是我不會再討論消費者的例子。

But and we do think that the pantries are not as full as they were a year ago. And it just depends a little bit when the consumer comes back and start spending in a big way, particularly also we haven't talked at all about the on-premise, but on-premise has weakened over the last year, that doesn't help overall trends either. But we think that will start to come back to over the next year.

但我們確實認為食品儲藏室並不像一年前那麼滿。這只是取決於消費者何時回來並開始大規模消費，特別是我們還沒有談論過本地部署，但去年本地部署已經減弱，這並不影響也有助於整體趨勢。但我們認為這種情況將在明年開始恢復。

And again, this is just one small line in our prepared remarks. But the importance of what we talked about that in our outlook, it just assumes that where our inventories are today, it's going to continue going into the future.

再說一次，這只是我們準備好的發言中的一小行。但我們在展望中所討論的重要性是，它只是假設我們今天的庫存狀況將繼續持續到未來。

Okay. And Leanne, I actually wanted to clarify on that point. Should we think about that as the absolute level of inventories to a distributor inventories are where they should be. So from a growth standpoint, like the next quarter or two, that's still a headwind to growth. But again, like an absolute level we're at the right point if you're following? what I'm asking.

好的。 Leanne，我實際上想澄清這一點。我們是否應該考慮這一點，因為經銷商庫存的絕對水準處於應有的水準。因此，從成長的角度來看，例如下一兩個季度，這仍然是成長的阻力。但同樣，如果你遵循的話，就像絕對水平一樣，我們處於正確的位置？我在問什麼。

So what we're talking about is kind of there in the US, they're kind of at the low end or on just below their levels. In our guidance, It assumes you're going to can stay consistent with where they are right now and that as we move forward, we've talked about in our outlook we're going to go against in our first half strong shipments. Again, part of it's related to the lumpiness of the outlook.

所以我們談論的是在美國，他們處於低端或略低於他們的水平。在我們的指導中，它假設您將能夠與現在的情況保持一致，並且隨著我們的前進，我們在展望中談到了我們將在上半年強勁的出貨量中反對。同樣，部分原因與前景的不穩定有關。

The shipments in the prior in F '24 for the emerging international markets, but then also in the US against what as we executed our pricing strategy last year, that would have seen stronger shipments in the first half and again, all that's built into the stronger first half as we look at F '25 and outside. And then we expect a stronger first half to second half in '25.

F '24 之前的出貨量針對新興國際市場，但隨後在美國也與我們去年執行的定價策略相比，上半年的出貨量會更加強勁，所有這些都已納入當我們觀察F '25 及其外部時，上半場表現更強。然後我們預計 25 年上半年和下半年會有更強的表現。

Okay, got it. Absolute levels, but then the growth rates are something different, but the absolute levels of kind of reach point where they need to be.

好，知道了。絕對水平，但增長率有所不同，但絕對水平達到了他們需要的水平。

(Multiple Speakers) Generally happen.

（多位發言者） 一般都會發生。

I'll pass it on. Thank you.

我會把它傳遞下去。謝謝。

Nik Modi, RBC.

尼克莫迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家早安。

Often, I had two questions. First, Jack Daniel's; Given all the kind of line extensions over the years and different playbooks question, have you as an organization figured out how to spend behind the Jack Daniel's; equity and really kind of provide a halo for all the expressions because there's a lot of innovation coming out from other players in some of these areas that seems like there's some cannibalization of your business.

我經常有兩個問題。首先是傑克丹尼；考慮到多年來各種產品線的延伸和不同的策略問題，作為一個組織，您是否已經弄清楚如何在 Jack Daniel's 背後進行支出？股權，並且確實為所有表達方式提供了光環，因為在其中一些領域中其他參與者提出了很多創新，這似乎對您的業務進行了一些蠶食。

So just wanted to get your perspective on how you think about rentals and long term and then just kind of sticking on the Jack Daniel's mainline brand, we're hearing a lot of promotional activity from our competitor base from that's not tracked in the Nielsen [or second of] data, instant repeal, redeemable coupons, et cetera. So I just wanted to get your perspective on that and kind of how you're thinking about that embedded in your guidance?

因此，只是想了解您對租賃和長期的看法，然後只是堅持傑克丹尼的主線品牌，我們從我們的競爭對手那裡聽到了很多促銷活動，而這些活動並未在尼爾森中進行跟踪[或第二個]數據、即時廢止、可兌換優惠券等等。所以我只是想了解您對此的看法以及您如何看待這一點並融入您的指導中？

So first, hit the Jack one first.

所以首先，先打傑克一號。

Well for one, there's the short term and then I'll take it a little bit longer term, it a little bit higher up that organic net sales for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. So black label was down 5%, but there was an 8% impact from the net change in distributor inventories. And so let's not think that also the brand is in this big decline from a consumer perspective, we still feel very good about that. There's just been no, it has been so much noise.

首先，有短期的情況，然後我會考慮更長期的情況，它會比傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的有機淨銷售額略高一些。因此，黑標下降了 5%，但經銷商庫存淨變化產生了 8% 的影響。因此，我們不要認為從消費者的角度來看，該品牌也出現瞭如此大的下滑，我們對此仍然感覺非常好。只是沒有，噪音太大了。

And we're also comparing against in the prior year period prior period of some very high numbers. And so when you step back and you look at it, say on a five year basis or even longer than that, the brand has maintained the growth rate. I think we just said the same growth rate on a five-year basis, ten-year basis, on a 30-year basis is all plus five.

我們也與去年同期的一些非常高的數字進行比較。因此，當你退一步看時，比如說五年甚至更長的時間，該品牌一直保持著成長速度。我想我們剛才說過，五年、十年、三十年的成長率都是加五。

So we're not seeing a long-term slowdown even in Tennessee Whiskey as we have introduced, we've had the flavors and it's been a few years since we've introduced a new one, but we've got all these higher in line extensions that we've been doing on the brand that I do think I mean, they drive profit in and of themselves, but there are also a halo over top of the over top of the brand or the franchise altogether.

因此，即使是田納西威士忌，我們也沒有看到長期的放緩，正如我們所推出的那樣，我們已經有了各種口味，自從我們推出新口味以來已經有幾年了，但我們已經在這些方面取得了更高的成績我們一直在品牌上進行產品線延伸，我想我的意思是，它們本身就可以帶來利潤，但在品牌或特許經營權之上也有一個光環。

The health metrics remain stable. We just we do believe the Tennessee whiskey is going to normalize over the next year and So then back to the marketing and the brand expense and the levels that we have and all those kind of things. Look, we've changed up the marketing mix quite a bit over the last few years, we do well. I'm very happy with the state of the brand and some of the communications that we're doing now, we're doing a whole lot with McLaren racing, and that's that's been fun, and it's been interesting and a different on brand building model for the brand but a very good one, a very, very premium one.

健康指標保持穩定。我們只是相信田納西威士忌將在明年正常化，然後回到行銷和品牌費用以及我們擁有的水平以及所有這些事情。看，過去幾年我們對行銷組合進行了很大的改變，我們做得很好。我對品牌的狀況以及我們現在正在做的一些溝通感到非常滿意，我們在麥克拉倫賽車方面做了很多工作，這很有趣，而且在品牌建設方面很有趣且與眾不同該品牌的模型，但非常好的模型，非常非常優質的模型。

And so and as far as absolute spend to be able to continue to deliver the kind of growth and momentum, we have. We're pretty comfortable with where we are and expect, I think we've said many times before, the rent expense is going to grow and something close to the brand's top line sales.

因此，就能夠繼續實現這種成長和勢頭的絕對支出而言，我們已經做到了。我們對自己的現狀感到非常滿意，並且預計，我想我們之前已經說過很多次了，租金費用將會增長，並且會接近該品牌的頂線銷售額。

So so the combination of Black Label continuing and remaining in growth mode, we will continue to do some innovations. RTDs are very popular right now. And Jack and Coke while just getting started is something we really believe in and we do have a pipeline of new thoughts on premium offerings. And so we remain comfortable overall that with that.

因此，黑標的結合繼續保持成長模式，我們將繼續做一些創新。 RTD 現在非常流行。傑克和可口可樂在剛起步時是我們真正相信的東西，我們確實有一系列關於優質產品的新想法。因此，我們對此總體上仍然感到滿意。

And then back now down to the second question that you asked on the US pricing environment. And I guess maybe you and I maybe we're looking at the same thing I'm actually I've been a little surprised that some of our competitors have said that because I'm looking at the data and I'll just throw out some very basic ones, but TDS pricing of 52 week basis is 1.2 and a 13 basis is 0.8.

現在回到您提出的有關美國定價環境的第二個問題。我想也許你和我也許我們正在看同樣的事情我實際上我有點驚訝我們的一些競爭對手這麼說因為我正在看數據並且我會扔掉一些非常基本的，但52 週基差的TDS 定價為1.2，13 週基差的TDS 定價為0.8。

So still positive and it's positive across most of the major brands particularly American whiskey. if I'm surprised it doesn't necessarily, but American whiskey pricing is as strong as any probably the strongest pricing environment of any of the major categories in the US, which bodes well that rational people are maintaining a positive price outlook.

所以仍然是積極的，而且大多數主要品牌尤其是美國威士忌都是積極的。如果我感到驚訝的話，這不一定，但美國威士忌的定價與美國任何主要類別中可能最強勁的定價環境一樣強勁，這預示著理性的人們正在保持積極的價格前景。

And we are definitely as part of that, we're in that just even Woodford for example is plus 1.9 and Jack is plus 1.3. So so that low and slow thing comes back again, particularly in American whiskey. Tequila is a little different and we'll see how this plays out over the next year or two or three years. A lot of you have written stuff about agave costs and what's that going to do the promotional environment, but it's not really happening yet. It's not coming through in the numbers.

我們絕對是其中的一部分，我們甚至連伍德福德都是+ 1.9，傑克也是+ 1.3。因此，那種低沉而緩慢的感覺又回來了，尤其是在美國威士忌中。龍舌蘭酒有點不同，我們將在未來一年或兩三年內看看情況如何。你們中的許多人都寫過有關龍舌蘭成本以及這對促銷環境有何影響的文章，但這還沒有真正發生。這並沒有體現在數字上。

And you mentioned I think it was a coupon saying yourself. I actually don't really know about that. But I can say that the big tequila brands on particularly ours and some of the stronger tequila brands continue even over a 13 week basis, take pretty hefty price increases or they're not discounting.

你提到我認為這是一張優惠券，上面寫著你自己。我其實對此不太了解。但我可以說，大型龍舌蘭酒品牌，尤其是我們的龍舌蘭酒品牌和一些實力較強的龍舌蘭酒品牌，甚至會持續 13 週以上，要么大幅提價，要么不打折。

There are a couple of brands that are having a struggle and they're weaker and they are starting to discount a little bit more. They're not ours and we hope that, the industry will maintain sort of that rational pricing perspective, but you just don't see it through the numbers now.So I'm not sure where everyone is coming up with this. The notion that the environment has gotten a lot more promotionally driven.

有幾個品牌正在苦苦掙扎，它們的實力較弱，並且開始加大折扣力度。它們不是我們的，我們希望行業能夠保持某種理性的定價觀點，但你現在無法透過數字看到它。環境變得更加受宣傳驅動。

And the one thing I'll add to that is for our human or specifically when you look at Brown-Forman's pricing in tequila versus and TDS, you will say ours definitely higher. And that's all about the repositioning of our Jimador brand, getting it firmly into that [$20 to $29], $99 price tier where we see the fastest growth right now. So and we have a new package that will be coming out that supports that in this year. So we're excited about what we'll see from our Jimador, as we move forward with that price repositioning work we're doing.

我要補充的一件事是針對我們的人類，或者特別是當您查看 Brown-Forman 龍舌蘭酒與 TDS 的定價時，您會說我們的價格肯定更高。這就是我們對 Jimador 品牌的重新定位，使其牢固進入 [20 美元至 29 美元]、99 美元的價格層，我們目前看到增長最快。因此，我們今年將推出一個新的軟體包來支援這一點。因此，隨著我們推進正在進行的價格重新定位工作，我們對 Jimador 所看到的一切感到興奮。

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Filippo Falorni, Citi.

菲利波·法洛尼，花旗銀行。

I had a question on the developed international and emerging market business. In the past call, you talked about some weakness in some European markets. So maybe can you give an update there? And also in emerging on Mexico.

我有一個關於已開發國際和新興市場業務的問題。在過去的電話會議中，您談到了一些歐洲市場的疲軟。那麼也許你可以在那裡提供更新嗎？墨西哥的新興市場也是如此。

And then for the second half of the year early, and you mentioned the improvement in the second half. What gives you the confidence in the improvement in the second half on top line, is it mainly the the kind of the comps on the inventory side? Are you assuming also an acceleration in category growth in the US and international markets?

然後今年下半年早些時候，你提到了下半年的改善。是什麼讓您對下半年營收的改善充滿信心，主要是庫存方面的比較嗎？您是否認為美國和國際市場的品類成長也會加速？

I'll start with your last one first because it's the most distinct, which is about what we will be comping in the second half of this year. And then to go to some of the international markets, in the UK, we're continuing to hold our value share in both the on and off trade and the consumer and does continue to reduce their spending and trade downs present in that market.

我將首先從您的最後一個開始，因為它是最獨特的，這就是我們將在今年下半年進行的比較。然後到英國的一些國際市場，我們將繼續保持我們在場外貿易和消費者中的價值份額，並繼續減少該市場中的支出和貿易下降。

For us, Germany, continues and you can see that in the numbers continues to be really strong. And the consumer climate there we see as improving. Poland, we're still growing nicely in that market while consumers are remaining cautious with their spending. And then brands that are just the market, I think is a consistent theme with the consistent theme we've talked about for the entire year, which is they just continue to down trade and having the promotional activities. So maybe they having the Olympics this summer. Well, what changed that a bit.

對我們來說，德國仍在繼續，你可以看到，從數字上看，它仍然非常強勁。我們認為那裡的消費環境正在改善。波蘭，我們在該市場的成長仍然良好，而消費者對他們的支出保持謹慎。然後，只是市場的品牌，我認為這與我們全年討論的一致主題是一致的，那就是他們只是繼續減少貿易並進行促銷活動。所以也許他們今年夏天會舉辦奧運。好吧，是什麼改變了一點。

And then as it relates to Mexico, the similar trend as what we had we have been reporting, which is the consumer continues to be on slowing down in spending. And we've been talking about that in our business. And you can see that through Jimador and Herradura, performance.

然後，就墨西哥而言，與我們所報告的趨勢類似，即消費者的支出繼續放緩。我們一直在我們的業務中討論這一點。你可以透過 Jimador 和 Herradura 的表現看到這一點。

Brazil, we continue to deliver low single digit growth there because our Jack Daniel's Tennessee, Apple is just being really well received with the consumers, and that's driving market share gains. And the consumer takeaways there is slowing a bit as well and the competitive environment intensified, but were actually up delivering double digit are strong growth in Brazil.

在巴西，我們繼續實現低個位數成長，因為我們的 Jack Daniel's 田納西州蘋果非常受消費者歡迎，這推動了市場份額的成長。那裡的消費者外送也有所放緩，競爭環境加劇，但實際上巴西實現了兩位數的強勁成長。

And let me let me add one point on the UK. Just because if you look at Schedule-C, it looks kind of ugly on the UK, down 14% sales, but very importantly, that is largely driven by Jack and Coke and Jack & Cola. So that was a very big Jack & Cola market, very healthy and a good business for us for a long time.

讓我就英國補充一點。只是因為如果你看看 Schedule-C，它在英國看起來有點難看，銷售額下降了 14%，但非常重要的是，這主要是由 Jack and Coke 和 Jack & Cola 推動的。因此，這是一個非常大的傑克可樂市場，非常健康，在很長一段時間內對我們來說都是一項很好的業務。

That is the cleanest example. I guess of a market where we used to sell directly ourselves. And now it's the Coca-Cola Company is doing. And so we've had to pull Jack & Cola off the shelves. And now we're selling like we do with all the other markets for Coca-Cola [Sunwear], effectively selling them concentrate really which just that obviously has a lot lower sales number. So it makes it makes the UK look worse than it really is.

這是最乾淨的例子。我猜想我們曾經在一個市場上直接銷售自己。現在可口可樂公司正在這樣做。因此我們不得不將傑克可樂下架。現在我們的銷售方式就像我們在可口可樂[太陽服]的所有其他市場上所做的那樣，有效地銷售它們的濃縮液，但顯然銷量要低得多。所以這讓英國看起來比實際情況更糟。

Thank you. That's helpful.

謝謝。這很有幫助。

And then maybe following up on the gross margin questions previously, Is the Q4 decline and performance, mainly driven by the lower inventories that you had expected. Have you already started to see some of those costs inflation headwind you mentioned for next year already playing out in Q4? And then thinking about '25, I know you mentioned there's puts and takes I gather favorable. Some other commodities inflationary. But overall, are you still expecting some margin expansion gross margin expansion in '24 --'25?

然後也許會跟進先前的毛利率問題，第四季度的下滑和業績是否主要是由您預期的庫存下降所推動的。您是否已經開始看到您提到的明年通膨逆風中的一些成本已經在第四季度顯現？然後想想 25 年，我知道你提到我認為有看跌期權和看跌期權。其他一些商品存在通貨膨脹。但總體而言，您是否仍預期 24 年至 25 年毛利率會出現一定程度的擴張？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So on to your first one, the big change in the fourth quarter is really going to be driven by inventory related cost as we would call it life though, and it's our life calculation on this the year over year change. What we had in the fourth quarter of '23 compared to the fourth quarter of '24. So that that's the extreme change there.

因此，關於您的第一個，第四季度的巨大變化實際上將由庫存相關成本驅動，因為我們稱之為壽命，這是我們對這一年同比變化的壽命計算。與 24 年第四季相比，我們 23 年第四季的情況。這就是那裡的極端變化。

And then related to gross margin expansion for F '25, just as we talk about reported gross margin, the change in our portfolio as it relates to the addition of Gin Mare and Diplomatico and the divestiture of Finlandia and Sonoma-Cutrer, that will provide us with gross margin expansion from a reported perspective.

然後與F '25 的毛利率擴張相關，正如我們談論報告的毛利率一樣，我們的投資組合發生變化，因為它與Gin Mare 和Diplomatico 的增加以及芬蘭迪亞和Sonoma-Cutrer 的剝離有關，這將提供從報告的角度來看，我們的毛利率有所擴張。

And then for the rest of our gross margin, we will have that low single digit favorable price mix, largely driven by price in F '25. But again, that's going to be a little bit more than offset by cost and are the work that we will be doing to normalize the working capital on our balance sheet.

然後，對於我們其餘的毛利率，我們將擁有低個位數的優惠價格組合，這主要是由 F '25 的價格驅動的。但同樣，這將比成本抵銷的多一點，也是我們為使資產負債表上的營運資本正常化所要做的工作。

Okay. Very helpful. Thank you.

好的。很有幫助。謝謝。

Peter Grom, UBS.

彼得‧格羅姆，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，接線生。大家，早安。

So Leanne, maybe building on that last question you kind of touched on this a tale of two halves, first half more subdued.

所以，Leanne，也許在最後一個問題的基礎上，你談到了這個分成兩個部分的故事，前半部更加柔和。

Can you maybe provide some parameters in terms of how you're thinking about first half versus second half in terms of [grocery]? And then maybe kind of following up to fully Bo's question. It seems like one of the primary reasons you are expecting a more challenged first half was due to the tougher shipments, but can you maybe just share what's embedded in the guidance from a category perspective?

您能否提供一些關於您如何看待上半年和下半年[雜貨]的參數？然後也許是對 Bo 的問題的全面跟進。您預計上半年將面臨更多挑戰的主要原因之一似乎是由於出貨量增加，但您能否從類別角度分享指南中包含的內容？

And I think you mentioned that the improvement in the back half is more comp driven, but there just doesn't seem to be a lot of visibility in terms of when this inflection to the historical growth rate occur. So just would be curious what's kind of the assumption embedded into the outlook from a category standpoint? Thanks.

我認為您提到後半部分的改善更多是由補償驅動的，但就歷史增長率何時發生這種變化而言，似乎沒有太多可見性。因此，我想知道從類別的角度來看，前景中嵌入了什麼樣的假設？謝謝。

Well, I would say from a what we are looking for in our growth rates is we shared that it was really going to be driven by developed and emerging international markets that those will be driving the greatest growth rates to your point of the tale of two halves that we will have in F '25, which be because of disruptions. We've had to tell you have the tale of two halves story now for a couple of years.

好吧，我想說的是，從我們在成長率中尋找的內容來看，我們共同認為，這實際上將由已開發和新興國際市場推動，這些市場將推動最大的成長率，達到您的兩個故事的觀點我們將在 F '25 中擁有一半的資源，這是因為中斷。幾年來，我們不得不告訴您兩個半故事的故事。

Again. for us in the first half of '25, it's really going to be about comping against those strong shipments, that we had in the first half. Conversely, when we just talked about the lower distributor inventory levels. We'll be comping against that in the second half of this year.

再次。對我們來說，25 年上半年，這實際上是為了與我們上半年的強勁出貨量進行比較。相反，當我們剛剛談到經銷商庫存水平較低時。我們將在今年下半年對此進行比較。

As we continue to look at our business, we continue to be on a path back to kind of our long-term growth algorithm in F '25. It will be another step in that path back to normalization. But again, with what we see right now from the consumer, the trade, we're just assuming that we're pretty consistent with where we are until we get some indicators have changed as we go through this year.

當我們繼續審視我們的業務時，我們將繼續回歸 F '25 的長期成長演算法。這將是回歸正常化道路上的另一步。但同樣，根據我們現在從消費者和貿易中看到的情況，我們只是假設我們與目前的情況相當一致，直到我們發現今年的一些指標發生了變化。

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for our Q&A session. I'll now turn the call back over to Sue for any closing comments.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節就到此為止了。現在，我將把電話轉回蘇，以徵求結束意見。

Thank you, and thank you to Lawson and Leanne and to everyone for joining us today, for Brown-Forman's; fourth quarter And fiscal year 2024 earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. As we close, I want to acknowledge and anniversary that the company just celebrated yesterday on June 4, 1924, in the midst of prohibition Brown-Forman relocated to its headquarters in the location that we're sitting in today.

謝謝你們，也謝謝勞森和莉安，以及今天加入我們布朗福曼的所有人；第四季及 2024 財年財報電話會議。如果您還有任何其他問題，請與我們聯絡。在我們結束之際，我想感謝公司昨天剛慶祝的周年紀念日，即 1924 年 6 月 4 日，在禁酒令期間，Brown-Forman 搬遷到了我們今天所在位置的總部。

Marking a century is another milestone in our 150 year, four year history and a reminder of the agility and resilience of this company and its people, as we work every day to ensure that there's nothing better in the market.

紀念一個世紀是我們 150 年、四年歷史中的另一個里程碑，它提醒我們這家公司及其員工的敏捷性和韌性，因為我們每天都在努力確保市場上沒有更好的產品。

With that, this concludes today's call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。