Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Brown-Forman Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sue Perram, Vice President, Director, Investor Relations.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Brown-Forman 2024 年第三季和年初至今的財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人蘇·佩拉姆（Sue Perram），她是投資者關係副總裁兼總監。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's third quarter and year-to-date fiscal 2024 earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict.

謝謝大家，大家早安。我要感謝大家今天參加 Brown-Forman 的第三季和年初至今的 2024 財年財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的有總裁兼執行長勞森·懷廷 (Lawson Whiting)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Leanne Cunningham。今天早上的電話會議包含基於我們目前預期的前瞻性陳述。許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中預期或預期的結果有重大差異。許多決定未來結果的因素超出了公司的控製或預測能力。

You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements whether due to new information, future events or otherwise. This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the third quarter and 9 months ended January 31, 2024, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations.

您不應過度依賴任何前瞻性陳述，除非法律要求，否則本公司不承擔更新任何這些陳述的義務，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。今天早上，我們發布了一份新聞稿，其中包含截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日的第三季和 9 個月的業績，此外還發布了 Lawson 和 Leanne 將立即瀏覽的演示材料。新聞稿和簡報均可在我們網站的「投資者、活動和簡報」部分找到。

In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

在新聞稿中，我們列出了您應結合我們的前瞻性陳述考慮的一些風險因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格報告中描述了其他重大風險因素。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務衡量標準進行了協調，管理層認為它們為投資者提供了有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息的原因均包含在新聞稿和投資者介紹中。說到這裡，我想把電話轉給勞森。

Thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we share our third quarter and year-to-date results for fiscal 2024. Before we get into the specifics of Brown-Forman's performance, I wanted to take a moment to offer a few comments about the dynamics and trends within the broader spirits industry. The last few years have been some of the most volatile and complex in my 26 years in the spirits industry with a variety of factors creating noise within the system. This can make it hard at times to distinguish between short-term headwinds and long-term trends.

謝謝你，蘇，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，我們將分享 2024 財年第三季和年初至今的業績。在我們詳細了解 Brown-Forman 的業績之前，我想花點時間就動態和業績發表一些評論。更廣泛的烈酒行業的趨勢。過去幾年是我從事烈酒行業 26 年以來最不穩定、最複雜的幾年，各種因素在系統內產生了噪音。這有時會讓人很難區分短期阻力和長期趨勢。

The last few months have been particularly noisy as demand for spirits has been normalizing after more than 2 years of outstanding growth. To truly understand the current environment, however, it's important to reflect back on the beginning of the pandemic when the closure of the on-premise limitations on travel and remote work prompted many consumers to shift their spirits consumption from bars and restaurants and invested at home bars for entertaining. Once restrictions eased and bars, pubs and restaurants reopened, consumers began spending heavily on vacations and other experiences they missed during the lockdowns. In addition, many consumers continue to entertain at home. Many in our industry call this the COVID supercycle.

過去幾個月尤其熱鬧，因為經過兩年多的出色增長，烈酒需求已趨於正常化。然而，要真正了解當前的環境，重要的是要回顧一下疫情爆發之初的情況，當時旅行和遠端工作的本地限制的取消促使許多消費者將烈酒消費從酒吧和餐館轉向在家中進行投資娛樂酒吧。一旦限制放鬆，酒吧、酒館和餐廳重新開業，消費者就開始在假期和封鎖期間錯過的其他體驗上投入大量資金。此外，許多消費者繼續在家娛樂。我們行業的許多人稱之為「新冠超級週期」。

In calendar 2023, after 2-plus years of above average spending, consumers were getting back to more normal consumption patterns but were soon faced with high inflation and increased interest rates that made them reconsider when and how they purchase spirits. By the late summer of 2023, the Spirits industry across much of the developed world, including the U.S., saw the impact of these changing consumer behaviors in the form of weakening takeaway trends. However, we continue to believe, as we mentioned last quarter that these trends are a direct result of the volatility consumers experienced since the pandemic and do not imply a longer-term change in the way they consume and enjoy Spirits.

到2023 年，經過兩年多高於平均水平的支出後，消費者逐漸恢復到更正常的消費模式，但很快就面臨高通膨和利率上升，這讓他們重新考慮何時以及如何購買烈酒。到了 2023 年夏末，包括美國在內的許多已開發國家的烈酒產業都看到消費者行為變化的影響，即外送趨勢減弱。然而，正如我們在上季度提到的，我們仍然相信，這些趨勢是自大流行以來消費者經歷的波動的直接結果，並不意味著他們消費和享受烈酒的方式會發生長期變化。

At the same time, consumers were adjusting their behavior as a result of the pandemic. Brown-Forman had its own set of pandemic-related challenges to navigate. This included disruptions to supply chain logistics and glass supply constraints that impacted our historical distributor ordering patterns and created unusual comparisons over the past few years. Today, we have a supply chain that is adjusting back to normal levels of consumer demand, and at the same time, it's also facing increased inflation, increased interest rates and increased competition. I share all of this to try and bring clarity to the difficult dynamics we've had to navigate and to explain why despite a challenging fiscal year, we continue to remain confident in the long-term health of the spirits consumer and the spirits industry.

同時，消費者也因疫情而調整自己的行為。布朗福曼公司也面臨一系列與流行病相關的挑戰。這包括供應鏈物流中斷和玻璃供應限制，這些限制影響了我們歷史上的經銷商訂購模式，並在過去幾年中產生了不尋常的比較。如今，我們的供應鏈正在調整回消費者需求的正常水平，同時也面臨通貨膨脹加劇、利率上升和競爭加劇的問題。我分享所有這些是為了嘗試澄清我們必須應對的困難動態，並解釋為什麼儘管財政年度充滿挑戰，我們仍然對烈酒消費者和烈酒行業的長期健康保持信心。

The other very important topic for Brown-Forman this fiscal year is the improvement in our gross margin. This too has been a journey we've been on now for several years. We've continued to execute our pricing strategy through our enhanced revenue growth management capabilities and increased price. We've benefited from the growth of our super premium brands in the form of more favorable price mix and these improvements, along with the absence of the supply chain disruption costs in the year ago period more than offset higher input costs, and we're pleased with our strong gross margin expansion.

Brown-Forman 本財政年度的另一個非常重要的主題是毛利率的改善。這也是我們多年來一直在走的旅程。我們透過增強收入成長管理能力和提高價格來繼續執行我們的定價策略。我們以更優惠的價格組合和這些改進的形式受益於我們的超高端品牌的成長，加上去年同期供應鏈中斷成本的消失，足以抵消更高的投入成本，而且我們對我們強勁的毛利率擴張感到滿意。

Now let me provide a bit of perspective on our fiscal 2024 net sales. Our reported net sales growth increased 1% in the 9 months of fiscal 2024 with flat organic net sales growth. These results compare against strong results in the prior year where strong consumer demand, higher pricing and the rebuilding of distributor inventories generated high single-digit reported net sales growth and double-digit organic net sales growth. I encourage you to reference Schedule D, which illustrates 5 percentage points of impact to our organic net sales from an estimated net decrease in distributor inventories. If you factor in this impact, our top line results continue to be in the range of our longer-term trends and help support our belief that our business is solid and our brands remain healthy.

現在讓我對 2024 財年淨銷售額提供一些看法。我們報告的 2024 財年前 9 個月的淨銷售額成長了 1%，有機淨銷售額成長持平。這些結果與去年的強勁業績相比，去年強勁的消費者需求、更高的定價和經銷商庫存的重建產生了高個位數的報告淨銷售額增長和兩位數的有機淨銷售增長。我鼓勵您參考附表 D，其中說明了經銷商庫存的估計淨減少對我們的有機淨銷售額的 5 個百分點的影響。如果考慮到這種影響，我們的營收結果將繼續處於長期趨勢範圍內，並有助於支持我們的信念：我們的業務穩健，我們的品牌保持健康。

In the 9 months of fiscal 2024, the largest growth contributors to organic net sales growth were in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, New Mix and Glenglassaugh. As you will recall, the international rollout of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple had been slowed by the pandemic-related impacts. However, as supply and logistics challenges were eased we were better able to meet consumer demand, which drove growth for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, particularly in markets such as Brazil and Chile. We've also had a strong launch in South Korea, resulting in very strong double-digit growth for the brand.

在 2024 財年的 9 個月中，有機淨銷售額成長的最大貢獻者是 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple、New Mix 和 Glenglassaugh。您可能還記得，傑克丹尼田納西蘋果的國際推廣因大流行相關的影響而放緩。然而，隨著供應和物流挑戰的緩解，我們能夠更好地滿足消費者的需求，這推動了 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple 的成長，特別是在巴西和智利等市場。我們也在韓國推出了強勁的產品，為該品牌帶來了非常強勁的兩位數成長。

Despite a challenging environment in Mexico, New mix continued to deliver double-digit organic net sales growth as the brand benefits from higher pricing and continues to gain value share in the RTD category. Glenglassaugh continues to be a standout brand as its awareness and prestige among whiskey connoisseurs continues to grow. As we discussed last quarter, the brand continued to benefit from CASK sales through its old and rare program. In addition, Glenglassaugh Sandend was named the 2023 Whiskey of the Year by Whiskey Advocate Magazine. This is our second year in a row that a Brown-Forman brand has received powerful and impactful acclaim from whiskey critics across the globe.

儘管墨西哥的環境充滿挑戰，New mix 仍繼續實現兩位數的有機淨銷售額成長，因為該品牌受益於更高的定價，並繼續在 RTD 類別中獲得價值份額。格蘭格拉索在威士忌鑑賞家中的知名度和聲望不斷提高，仍然是一個傑出的品牌。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，該品牌透過其古老而稀有的計劃繼續受益於 CASK 銷售。此外，Glenglassaugh Sandend 也被威士忌倡導者雜誌評為 2023 年度威士忌。這是布朗福曼品牌連續第二年獲得全球威士忌評論家的強烈和有影響力的讚譽。

If you'll recall, Jack Daniel's Bonded captured this most coveted global accolade in the whiskey industry back in 2022. Since I mentioned Jack Daniel's Bonded, I'll also note that collectively, the Jack Daniel's super-premium expressions delivered strong double-digit organic net sales growth in the year-to-date period. This growth was led by Jack Daniel Sinatra, Jack Daniel's Single Barrel Rye Barrel Proof and the newest member of the bonded series Jack Daniel's Bonded Rye. This is the result of our purposeful efforts to premiumize the Jack Daniel's family of brands and elevate our whiskey credentials through innovation and special launches. In doing so, we give both long-term friends of Jack Daniel's and new friends, the opportunity to explore and discover within the Jack Daniel's family.

如果你還記得的話，Jack Daniel's Bonded 早在2022 年就獲得了威士忌行業最令人垂涎​​的全球榮譽。既然我提到了Jack Daniel's Bonded，我還要指出的是，總的來說，Jack Daniel's的超優質表現帶來了強勁的兩位數表現今年迄今的有機淨銷售成長。這一增長由 Jack Daniel Sinatra、Jack Daniel's Single Barrel Rye Barrel Proof 以及保稅系列 Jack Daniel's Bonded Rye 的最新成員引領。這是我們有目的地努力使傑克丹尼品牌系列高端化並透過創新和特別推出來提升我們的威士忌信譽的結果。透過這樣做，我們為傑克丹尼的長期朋友和新朋友提供了在傑克丹尼家族中探索和發現的機會。

Also included in this innovation is the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD, which just celebrated 1 year since the national launch in Mexico. While it's still early to the brand's global launch, the Jack & Coke RTD has earned numerous awards, including best canned cocktail and best drink concept by Beverage Digest and named the Coca-Cola Company's #1 innovation in 2023. Jack & Coke is the #1 RTD SKU in Great Britain and Poland and remains the #1 whiskey-based RTD in the United States. And in less than 12 months, over 100 million cans have been sold in just 13 markets, increasing brand visibility not only for the RTD, but also for Jack Daniel's full-strength portfolio.

這項創新還包括 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD，該產品剛剛慶祝在墨西哥全國上市一週年。雖然品牌在全球推出還為時過早，但Jack & Coke RTD 已贏得了無數獎項，包括Beverage Digest 頒發的最佳罐裝雞尾酒獎和最佳飲品概念獎，並被評為可口可樂公司2023 年排名第一的創新。Jack & Coke 是排名第一的創新產品。在英國和波蘭排名第一的 RTD SKU，並且仍然是美國排名第一的威士忌 RTD。在不到 12 個月的時間裡，僅在 13 個市場就售出了超過 1 億罐，不僅提高了 RTD 的品牌知名度，也提高了 Jack Daniel 的全部產品組合的品牌知名度。

The Jack Daniel's RTD portfolio had minimal impact on the overall organic net sales results in the year-to-date period, largely due to the transition of the Jack and Cola business to Jack & Coke. We believe this transition is building a stronger, more premium and more global foundation that creates value and supports our long-term growth.

傑克丹尼的 RTD 產品組合對今年迄今的整體有機淨銷售結果影響很小，這主要是由於傑克和可樂業務向傑克和可口可樂的過渡。我們相信，這項轉變正在建立一個更強大、更優質、更全球化的基礎，從而創造價值並支持我們的長期成長。

The benefits from the premiumization trend continue to be evident in the organic net sales growth of Woodford Reserve, which returned to growth in the year-to-date period, driven by the brand's luxury expressions such as Batch Proof and the Masters Collection. Our founding brand, Old Forester, introduced the newest expression in its super premium Whiskey Row series Old Forester 1924, a 10-year-old whiskey with a suggested selling price of $115.

高端化趨勢的好處在 Woodford Reserve 的有機淨銷售額成長中持續顯現出來，在 Batch Proof 和 Masters Collection 等品牌奢華表現的推動下，今年迄今恢復了成長。我們的創始品牌 Old Forester 推出了其超優質威士忌系列 Old Forester 1924 的最新產品，這是一款 10 年威士忌，建議售價為 115 美元。

The Whiskey Row series continues to grow but also creates a halo for the parent brand, and I'm proud to say that Old Forester has recently crossed the 0.5 million 9-liter case milestone. And our newest super and ultra premium brands, Gin Mare and Diplomatico entered our organic results in the third quarter and collectively delivered a very strong double-digit organic net sales growth.

Whisky Row系列在持續成長的同時也為母品牌創造了光環，我很自豪地說，Old Forester最近已經突破了50萬輛9升箱的里程碑。我們最新的超級和超高端品牌 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico 在第三季度進入了我們的有機業績，並共同實現了非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長。

To wrap up our top line performance, I'll share a few thoughts on Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, which was the largest offset to growth of our organic net sales. First of all, it is lapping an exceptionally high comp from the prior year period. Also, volume declined in the 9 months of the fiscal year, mainly related to our route-to-consumer transition in Japan, the U.S. and the comparison against the inventory rebuild in Sub-Saharan Africa in the year ago period.

為了總結我們的營收表現，我將分享一些關於傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的想法，這是對我們有機淨銷售額成長的最大抵消。首先，與去年同期相比，它的業績非常高。此外，本財年前 9 個月的銷量有所下降，主要與我們在日本、美國向消費者的轉型以及與去年同期撒哈拉以南非洲地區的庫存重建相比有關。

We believe these disruptions are circumstantial and temporary and are confident that Jack Daniel's remains in a position of strength with robust medium- and long-term performance and exceptional brand health. For example, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey has again been named the most valuable spirits brand in the world by Interbrand, making this the eighth year in a row. In fact, based on our consumer insights research, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey ranks #1 or #2 across the measures of brand awareness, penetration and consideration across most markets. And we continue to support the brand's health and growth through the Make It Count global campaign, the Jack & Coke RTD and the McLaren Formula 1 sponsorship. We have strategies and plans in place to return Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey to growth which we will share in more detail during our Investor Day later this month.

我們認為，這些幹擾是暫時的、暫時的，並相信傑克丹尼憑藉著強勁的中長期業績和卓越的品牌健康狀況，繼續保持優勢地位。例如，傑克丹尼田納西威士忌再次被 Interbrand 評為全球最有價值烈酒品牌，這已是連續第八年。事實上，根據我們的消費者洞察研究，傑克丹尼田納西威士忌在大多數市場的品牌知名度、滲透率和考慮度指標中排名第一或第二。我們繼續透過 Make It Count 全球活動、Jack & Coke RTD 和麥克拉倫一級方程式贊助來支持品牌的健康和發展。我們已經制定了使傑克丹尼田納西威士忌恢復增長的策略和計劃，我們將在本月晚些時候的投資者日期間分享更多詳細資訊。

While the path to normalization in the spirits category impacted our top line results, we continue to be pleased with our gross margin. As I shared previously, we have moved from contraction to expansion in the first 9 months of fiscal 2024, our reported and organic gross profit increased 5% and 6%, respectively, both were ahead of the respective top line growth rates. The strength and health of our brands, along with our continued brand building investments enabled us to increase price across many brands in our portfolio, which helped drive the 290 basis points of price/mix contribution to gross margin.

雖然烈酒類別的正常化之路影響了我們的營收業績，但我們仍然對我們的毛利率感到滿意。正如我之前分享的，我們在 2024 財年的前 9 個月從收縮轉向了擴張，我們的報告毛利和有機毛利分別增長了 5% 和 6%，均領先於各自的營收成長率。我們品牌的實力和健康狀況，加上我們持續的品牌建設投資，使我們能夠提高產品組合中許多品牌的價格，這有助於推動價格/組合對毛利率的貢獻提高 290 個基點。

Gross margin also benefited from the absence of supply chain mitigation costs, which more than offset higher input costs. As a reminder, in the prior year-to-date period, we incurred increased transportation and logistics costs in order to satisfy the demand from our distributors and retailers for the important holiday season. In total, favorable price mix the absence of supply chain mitigation costs and lower tariff-related costs due to the removal of the U.K. tariffs on American whiskey more than offset higher input costs and the negative effects of foreign exchange and acquisitions and divestitures. This resulted in 250 basis points of reported gross margin expansion in the year-to-date period.

毛利率也得益於供應鏈緩解成本的缺失，足以抵銷更高的投入成本。提醒一下，去年至今，我們增加了運輸和物流成本，以滿足經銷商和零售商在重要節日期間的需求。總體而言，有利的價格組合、供應鏈緩解成本的缺失以及由於英國取消對美國威士忌的關稅而降低的關稅相關成本，足以抵消更高的投入成本以及外匯、收購和剝離的負面影響。這導致年初至今報告的毛利率增加了 250 個基點。

In summary, we continue to operate in a very dynamic operating environment that has impacted our short-term results. We believe that we will benefit from the evolution of our brand portfolio, long-term pricing and revenue growth management strategies as well as a moderating cost environment even as consumer demand normalizes. The spirits category offers attractive growth, healthy margins and high returns on capital, and we're well positioned globally with the premium and super premium brands in growing categories. We also have an organization of highly talented people who are committed to our strategic priorities and company values.

總之，我們繼續在一個非常活躍的營運環境中運營，這影響了我們的短期業績。我們相信，即使消費者需求正常化，我們也將從品牌組合的演變、長期定價和收入成長管理策略以及適度的成本環境中受益。烈酒類別提供了有吸引力的成長、健康的利潤率和高資本回報率，我們在不斷增長的類別中憑藉優質和超優質品牌在全球處於有利地位。我們也擁有一支由高素質人才組成的組織，他們致力於我們的策略重點和公司價值。

I'd like to thank all of our Brown-Forman employees across the world for their focus on growing our brands and achieving our long-term ambitions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne and she'll provide additional details on our geographic performance, other financial highlights as well as our updated fiscal 2024 outlook.

我要感謝世界各地的所有 Brown-Forman 員工，感謝他們對發展我們的品牌和實現我們的長期目標的關注。之後，我會將電話轉給 Leanne，她將提供有關我們的地理業績、其他財務亮點以及更新的 2024 財年展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. From a geographic perspective, our emerging international markets collectively delivered 11% organic net sales growth and continue to lead the company's growth in the year-to-date period. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, particularly in Brazil and Chile, once again led the growth due to our ability to meet strong consumer demand with the return of normal levels of supply. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey growth was led by Türkiye as momentum in the premium whiskey category continued. In Mexico, New Mix continued to deliver strong double-digit growth as the brand continued to benefit from our pricing strategy and gained share of the RTD category.

謝謝勞森，大家早安。從地理角度來看，我們的新興國際市場整體實現了 11% 的有機淨銷售額成長，並繼續引領公司今年迄今的成長。傑克丹尼爾的田納西蘋果公司，特別是在巴西和智利，由於我們有能力透過恢復正常的供應水平來滿足強勁的消費者需求，因此再次引領了成長。隨著優質威士忌類別的持續增長，傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的增長由 Türkiye 引領。在墨西哥，New Mix 繼續實現強勁的兩位數成長，因為該品牌繼續受益於我們的定價策略並獲得了 RTD 類別的份額。

In the travel retail channel, organic net sales grew 1% in the 9 months of the fiscal year, which is impressive as it lapped 52% growth in the year ago period when international airline travel and the cruise industry rebounded and nearly returned to pre-COVID levels. Strong double-digit growth of our super premium American whiskeys such as Woodford Reserve, Jack Daniel's American Single Malt, our exclusive global travel retail offering and Jack Daniel's Single Barrel was partially offset by declines in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey.

在旅遊零售通路中，本財年前9 個月的有機淨銷售額增長了1%，這一成績令人印象深刻，因為去年同期國際航空旅行和郵輪業反彈並幾乎恢復到之前的水平，該通路的成長率為52%。新冠病毒 (COVID) 水準。我們的超優質美國威士忌（如伍德福德珍藏、傑克丹尼美國單一麥芽威士忌、我們獨家的全球旅遊零售產品和傑克丹尼單桶威士忌）強勁的兩位數增長，但被傑克丹尼田納西威士忌和傑克丹尼田納西蜂蜜的下降部分抵消。

Turning to the United States. Organic net sales decreased 2% driven by lower volumes, partially reflecting an estimated net decrease in distributor inventories of 2%. The impact of our year-to-date results due to the comparison against the significant inventory rebuilding during the first half of fiscal 2023 moderated as we believe distributor inventories normalized in the third quarter of fiscal 2023 and have remained at normal levels. Our pricing strategy, which led to higher prices across much of our portfolio, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and el Jimador helped to limit the decline. Consumer demand for U.S. whiskey, particularly super premium remains strong as U.S. whiskey is the second largest contributor to total distilled spirits value growth in Nielsen.

轉向美國。由於銷量下降，有機淨銷售額下降了 2%，部分反映了經銷商庫存預計淨減少 2%。與 2023 財年上半年的重大庫存重建相比，我們今年迄今的業績的影響有所緩和，因為我們相信經銷商庫存在 2023 財年第三季度正常化並保持在正常水平。我們的定價策略導致我們大部分產品組合的價格上漲，其中以傑克丹尼田納西威士忌和 el Jimador 為首，這有助於限制跌幅。消費者對美國威士忌（尤其是超優質威士忌）的需求仍然強勁，因為美國威士忌是尼爾森蒸餾酒總價值成長的第二大貢獻者。

The demand for our super premium Jack Daniel's products, Jack Daniel Sinatra, Jack Daniel's Single Barrel Rye Barrel Proof and Jack Daniel's Bonded Rye along with our limited releases of Jack Daniel's 10- and 12-year old delivered strong growth and partially offset the decline in Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey volume. The fastest-growing category in the U.S. remains the ready-to-drink category. It has been nearly 1 year since the launch of the Jack Daniels and Coca-Cola RTD in the United States, and the brand continues to grow and gain share.

對我們超優質傑克丹尼產品、傑克丹尼辛納屈、傑克丹尼單桶黑麥桶裝和傑克丹尼保稅黑麥的需求，以及我們限量發行的傑克丹尼10 和12 年威士忌帶來了強勁的增長，並部分抵消了銷量的下降。傑克丹尼田納西威士忌卷。美國成長最快的類別仍然是即時類別。傑克丹尼和可口可樂 RTD 在美國推出已近 1 年，該品牌不斷成長並擴大市場份額。

Jack Daniel's RTD, led by Jack & Coke remains a top 10 brand family by value in Nielsen. We continue to believe that our portfolio is well positioned to benefit from the consumer trends of premiumization and convenience. Moving on to our developed international markets. Collectively, organic net sales declined 6% for the 9 months of fiscal 2024, driven by lower volumes, primarily reflecting an estimated net decrease in distributor inventories of 6%. The growth of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Apple, led by the continuing successful launch in South Korea and Glenglassaugh's old and rare cask sales in Singapore was more than offset by declines Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey in Japan related to the estimated net decrease in distributor inventory due to the fulfillment of backlog orders in the second half of last year when supply was available to meet this demand coupled with the transition activities to our own distribution. We continue to progress as planned with our launch just a few weeks away on April 1.

以 Jack & Coke 為首的 Jack Daniel's RTD 仍然是尼爾森價值排名前十的品牌家族。我們仍然相信，我們的產品組合能夠從高端化和便利性的消費趨勢中受益。轉向我們發達的國際市場。總體而言，由於銷量下降，2024 財年的 9 個月有機淨銷售額下降了 6%，主要反映了經銷商庫存的估計淨減少 6%。傑克丹尼田納西蘋果酒在韓國的持續成功推出以及格倫格拉索在新加坡的陳年稀有木桶銷量的帶動，帶動了傑克丹尼田納西蘋果酒的增長，但傑克丹尼田納西威士忌在日本的銷量下降卻遠遠抵消了這一下降，該下降與分銷商庫存的估計淨減少有關。去年下半年，當供應可以滿足這一需求時，以及向我們自己的分銷的過渡活動，我們完成了積壓訂單。我們繼續按計劃推進，幾週後於 4 月 1 日發布。

In addition, as we continue to drive and build our business in Europe, we are pleased to announce that we will establish our own distribution organization in Italy effective May 1, 2025. Italy is one of the top 5 spirits markets in the European Union, making it an important market for driving the growth of our Jack Daniel's family of brands globally and in particular, for our latest portfolio additions. Italy is the largest market for Gin Mare and the fifth largest market for Diplomatico rum globally. This market holds significant potential for future growth, and we believe this change will enable us to strengthen our commercial and brand-building capabilities while increasing consumer focus and prioritization of our portfolio.

此外，隨著我們繼續推動和發展我們在歐洲的業務，我們很高興地宣布，我們將於2025 年5 月1 日起在義大利建立自己的分銷組織。義大利是歐盟5 大烈酒市場之一，使其成為推動傑克丹尼品牌系列全球成長的重要市場，特別是我們最新產品組合的成長。義大利是 Gin Mare 的最大市場，也是 Diplomatico 蘭姆酒的全球第五大市場。這個市場擁有巨大的未來成長潛力，我們相信這項變化將使我們能夠加強我們的商業和品牌建立能力，同時提高消費者的關注度和我們產品組合的優先順序。

As Lawson has shared the details of our strong gross margin expansion for the 9 months of fiscal 2024, I will now turn to our operating expenses and income. As we have shared with you in prior quarters, we allocated more brand-building investment in the early months of fiscal 2024 to support the launch of the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD in the United States. We also increased investment for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey due to the phasing of our investments, our operating expenses continued to moderate through the 9 months of fiscal 2024, which resulted in organic advertising expense growth of 7% in the year-to-date period.

由於 Lawson 分享了我們 2024 財年 9 個月毛利率強勁增長的細節，我現在將談論我們的營運支出和收入。正如我們在前幾個季度與您分享的那樣，我們在 2024 財年的前幾個月分配了更多的品牌建設投資，以支持在美國推出 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD。由於投資的分階段，我們還增加了對傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的投資，我們的營運費用在 2024 財年的 9 個月中持續放緩，導致年初至今有機廣告費用增加 7%。

Similarly, organic SG&A investment also moderated through the 9 months of fiscal 2024 as we continue to invest behind our people. Primarily led by higher compensation and benefit expenses, resulting in an increase of 8% for the year-to-date period. Our year-to-date reported operating expenses, which decreased 11% were impacted by 3 items. The absence of the prior year noncash impairment charge for the Finlandia brand name, the current year gain on the sale of Finlandia and the absence of the prior year post closing costs and expenses related to the acquisition of Diplomatico and Gin Mare.

同樣，隨著我們繼續為員工進行投資，2024 財年的 9 個月內，有機 SG&A 投資也有所放緩。主要是由於薪資和福利費用增加，導致今年迄今成長了 8%。我們今年迄今報告的營運費用下降了 11%，受到 3 個項目的影響。不存在上一年芬蘭迪亞品牌的非現金減損費用、本年度出售芬蘭迪亞的收益以及不存在上一年與收購 Diplomatico 和 Gin Mare 相關的結帳後成本和費用。

In total, reported operating income increased 25% and organic operating income grew 2% in the 9 months of fiscal 2024. These results led to a 32% diluted earnings per share increase to $1.58 per share. Before moving to our outlook, I'd like to take the opportunity to provide you with an update on our share repurchase program that we announced on October 2, 2023. As you may recall, the Brown-Forman Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $400 million of our outstanding shares of Class A and Class B common stock. I am pleased to announce that as of December 31, 2023, we have completed the program.

總體而言，2024 財年的 9 個月中，報告營業收入增長了 25%，有機營業收入增長了 2%。這些結果導致每股攤薄收益增長 32%，達到每股 1.58 美元。在展望我們的展望之前，我想藉此機會向您介紹我們於 2023 年 10 月 2 日宣布的股票回購計劃的最新情況。您可能還記得，Brown-Forman 董事會授權回購最多4 億美元的已發行A 類和B 類普通股。我很高興地宣布，截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日，我們已經完成了該計劃。

Now turning to our updated fiscal 2024 outlook. As Lawson highlighted, global trends are normalizing after 2 years of very strong organic net sales growth in what has been a challenging and dynamic operating environment we experienced softer-than-expected consumer trends during the important holiday selling season globally, which limited our expected top line acceleration. While we have to lap stronger shipments associated with the launch of Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD in the U.S. in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, the year ago period is in line with longer-term historic trends. We also expect to continue to benefit from our long-term pricing and revenue growth management strategies as well as the contribution from our recent super premium brand acquisitions, Gin Mare and Diplomatico.

現在轉向我們更新的 2024 財年展望。正如勞森所強調的那樣，在充滿挑戰和充滿活力的營運環境中，經過兩年非常強勁的有機淨銷售成長後，全球趨勢正在正常化，我們在全球重要的假日銷售季節經歷了低於預期的消費者趨勢，這限制了我們的預期頂峰線加速度。雖然我們必須在 2023 財年第四季在美國推出 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD，以實現更強勁的出貨量，但去年同期與長期歷史趨勢相符。我們也預計將繼續受益於我們的長期定價和收入成長管理策略以及我們最近收購的超高端品牌 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico 的貢獻。

We now expect our organic net sales growth to be flat for fiscal 2024. Also in this fiscal year, we continue to believe our gross margin will expand as higher input costs driven by inflation will be more than offset by price mix and the absence of supply chain disruption. Our outlook for organic operating expenses to increase remains the same and assumes incremental advertising spend will be above our top line growth rate. Our expectation is that SG&A growth will remain higher than historical averages as we continue to expect higher compensation and benefit-related expenses and costs related to our transition to own distribution in Japan.

我們現在預計 2024 財年的有機淨銷售額成長將持平。同樣在本財年，我們仍然相信我們的毛利率將會擴大，因為通膨驅動的投入成本上升將被價格組合和供應不足所抵消鏈條中斷。我們對有機營運支出成長的預期保持不變，並假設增量廣告支出將高於我們的營收成長率。我們的預期是，SG&A 成長將繼續高於歷史平均水平，因為我們繼續預期薪資和福利相關費用以及與我們在日本過渡到自己的分銷相關的成本會更高。

Based on these expectations, we anticipate organic operating income growth to be in the range of 0% to 2% for the full fiscal year. We have revised our expectation for the effective tax rate for fiscal 2024 to now be in the range of approximately 20% to 22%, and we now anticipate capital expenditures to be in the range of $230 million to $240 million for the full year. Before opening the call up to Q&A, I would also like to add a few comments on our recent capital allocation actions, in particular, the sale of our cooperage in Alabama, the pending divestiture of Sonoma-Cutrer and our long-standing commitment to our community and the environment. During the third quarter, we announced the sale of our cooperage in Trinity, Alabama to Independent Stave Company.

基於這些預期，我們預計整個財年的有機營業收入成長將在 0% 至 2% 之間。我們已將 2024 財年有效稅率的預期修改為約 20% 至 22%，目前預計全年資本支出將在 2.3 億美元至 2.4 億美元之間。在開始問答之前，我還想對我們最近的資本配置行動添加一些評論，特別是出售我們在阿拉巴馬州的製桶廠、即將剝離的索諾瑪-卡特勒公司以及我們對我們的長期承諾。社區和環境。第三季度，我們宣布將位於阿拉巴馬州三一市的製桶廠出售給 Independent Stave Company。

In our continuing efforts to optimize our wood supply chain, we have committed to a long-term strategic relationship with Independent Stave Company to ensure a stable supply of high-quality barrels to meet our demand at a competitive price while creating efficiencies and optimizing capital allocation in our supply chain. The relationship also allows for the expansion and diversification of our supply chain network. Brown-Forman will continue to own and fully leverage the Brown-Forman Cooperage in Louisville, Kentucky. This allows us to produce approximately half of the barrels required to support our needs while enabling us to continue developing and innovating for our brands and new expressions.

在我們不斷努力優化木材供應鏈的過程中，我們致力於與Independent Stave Company 建立長期戰略關係，以確保高品質木桶的穩定供應，以具有競爭力的價格滿足我們的需求，同時創造效率並優化資本配置在我們的供應鏈。這種關係也使我們的供應鏈網絡得以擴展和多元化。 Brown-Forman 將繼續擁有並充分利用位於肯塔基州路易斯維爾的 Brown-Forman 製桶廠。這使我們能夠生產大約一半的桶子來滿足我們的需求，同時使我們能夠繼續開發和創新我們的品牌和新的表達方式。

Moving to Sonoma-Cutrer the divestiture to o The Duckhorn Portfolio and the assumption of an equity ownership position in the company subject to certain customary closing adjustments and conditions is still expected to close in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024. We continue to believe in the strength of the Sonoma-Cutrer brand and its future growth opportunities and that this transaction reflects our portfolio evolution strategy as well as our commitment to long-term value creation. And lastly, I would like to share that we have recently announced that in fiscal 2024, we have committed to a $22.5 million investment benefiting the Brown-Forman Foundation and Dendrifund.

轉向索諾瑪-卡特勒 (Sonoma-Cutrer)，剝離至 Duckhorn Portfolio 並承擔公司股權頭寸（受某些慣例成交調整和條件影響）預計仍將在 2024 財年第四季度完成。我們仍然相信Sonoma- Cutrer 品牌的實力及其未來的成長機會，此交易反映了我們的投資組合演變策略以及我們對長期價值創造的承諾。最後，我想告訴大家的是，我們最近宣布，在 2024 財年，我們承諾投資 2,250 萬美元，讓 Brown-Forman 基金會和 Dendrifund 受益。

Brown-Forman Foundation was created in fiscal 2018 with the goal of helping fund our ongoing philanthropic endeavors with a focus on our corporate hometown of Louisville, Kentucky.

Brown-Forman 基金會成立於 2018 財年，旨在為我們持續開展的慈善事業提供資金，重點關注我們的企業家鄉肯塔基州路易斯維爾。

The Dendrifund, a nonprofit seed fund created by Brown-Forman and the Brown family in 2012 helps to promote a more sustainable whiskey industry with a focus on the 3 natural resources most important for the distillation and aging of whiskeys: wood, water and grain. As you know, at Brown-Forman, we take an integrated approach to value creation, where all aspects of our company contribute to and are fundamental to our strategy, including our commitment to environmental sustainability, alcohol and marketing responsibility, diversity and inclusion and contributing to the vitality of the communities in which we live and work. These investments are just 2 examples of how we are living our spirit of commitment.

Dendrifund 是 Brown-Forman 和 Brown 家族於 2012 年創建的非營利種子基金，致力於促進威士忌行業的可持續發展，重點關注對威士忌蒸餾和陳釀最重要的 3 種自然資源：木材、水和穀物。如您所知，在Brown-Forman，我們採用綜合方法來創造價值，我們公司的各個方面都對我們的策略做出貢獻，並且是我們策略的基礎，包括我們對環境永續性、酒精和行銷責任、多元化和包容性的承諾以及貢獻為我們生活和工作的社區注入活力。這些投資只是我們如何實踐承諾精神的兩個例子。

In summary, we are adjusting to more normalized levels of consumer demand and a challenging and dynamic operating environment. As we look to the end of fiscal 2024, we believe that we have moved beyond the most difficult comparisons and disruptions of our fiscal year and will benefit from our long-term strategies as well as our portfolio evolution. We believe our portfolio of brands is strong as they are participating in growing categories and price segments and are driven by the consumer trends of premiumization and the desire for convenience and flavor.

總之，我們正在適應更正常化的消費者需求水準以及充滿挑戰和動態的營運環境。展望 2024 財年末，我們相信我們已經擺脫了本財年最困難的比較和乾擾，並將受益於我們的長期策略以及投資組合的演變。我們相信，我們的品牌組合非常強大，因為它們正在參與不斷增長的類別和價格細分，並受到高端化消費趨勢以及對便利性和風味的渴望的推動。

While we have more modest near-term expectations, we believe our long-term perspective will enable us to navigate the current environment and its short-term impacts as we have many times since our founding in 1870 and to deliver consistent and reliable performance and returns over the long term. We look forward to seeing many of you in-person soon and sharing more about the confidence we have in our long-term ambitions at our Investor Day on March 20. This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

雖然我們的近期預期較為溫和，但我們相信，我們的長期視角將使我們能夠像自 1870 年成立以來多次那樣應對當前環境及其短期影響，並提供一致、可靠的業績和回報從長遠來看。我們期待很快與你們中的許多人見面，並在 3 月 20 日的投資者日分享我們對長期目標的更多信心。我們準備好的發言到此結束。請打開提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

Great. So I'm still, honestly, to all the prepared remarks, a bit confused around where the shortfall really stemmed from both in the quarter and stemming going into Q4? Because you talked about sequential improvement in the second half with what was expected. Third quarter looks like it decelerated sequentially despite the easier comp. I know you mentioned softer holiday demand globally, but again, that doesn't really help me with the 4Q. So just if you could maybe rank order what sort of where the areas were of short-term negative surprise, I think that would be really helpful.

偉大的。因此，老實說，對於所有準備好的評論，我仍然對本季和第四季的缺口真正源於何處感到有點困惑？因為你談到下半年的連續改善符合預期。儘管比較容易，但第三季的成長速度似乎連續放緩。我知道您提到全球假期需求疲軟，但同樣，這對我對第四季的業績並沒有真正的幫助。因此，如果您可以對短期負面意外的區域進行排序，我認為這將非常有幫助。

Thanks, Lauren. And I'll go ahead and I'll step back a little bit broader first, and then I'll narrow and specifically to your question. So first, let me say, we think about our business in decades and generations, and I'd like to point you to Slide 5, which when we think about the 2020 decade that we're in and the kind of the first 3 full fiscal years, you can see that our compounded annual growth rate for that period of time on an organic net sales basis is at 9%, which is definitely above our long-term growth algorithm. And then kind of moving closer into the period that we're in now, we have now lapped the first half of F '23, which was our strongest first half growth rate in the last decade. We talked about that in our last call and that was all about rebuilding our inventories.

謝謝，勞倫。我會繼續說，我會先退後一步，然後再縮小範圍，專門針對你的問題。首先，我要說的是，我們思考了幾十年和幾代人的業務，我想向您指出幻燈片5，當我們思考我們所處的2020 年十年以及前3 個完整的十年時，我想向您展示投影片5。各個財年，您可以看到我們在該時期內有機淨銷售額的複合年增長率為 9%，這絕對高於我們的長期成長演算法。然後接近我們現在所處的時期，我們現在已經完成了 F '23 的上半年，這是我們過去十年中最強勁的上半年成長率。我們在上次電話會議中談到了這一點，這一切都是關於重建我們的庫存。

And then if you kind of look at last year, kind of 9 months year-to-date and this year, that CAGR is 6%, which is in line with our longer-term growth algorithm. So when we step back and look at it at the broadest perspective, so far for this decade, we believe we're off to a good start, and we have confidence that our business is sound with a strong gross margin expansion and strong cash flow. So just to set the stage and then I'll dial in even closer to your question is, you're right in this what we said is during the important holiday selling season, we did not expect the softness of consumer trends that we did see during that important holiday selling season, and that has now limited our top line acceleration.

然後，如果你看看去年，今年迄今為止的 9 個月，複合年增長率為 6%，這符合我們的長期成長演算法。因此，當我們退後一步，以最廣泛的視角來看待它時，到目前為止，這十年我們相信我們有了一個良好的開端，並且我們有信心我們的業務穩健，毛利率強勁增長，現金流強勁。因此，為了做好準備，然後我會更接近您的問題，您是對的，我們所說的是在重要的假日銷售季節期間，我們沒有預料到我們確實看到了消費趨勢的疲軟在那個重要的假日銷售季節，這限制了我們收入的成長。

When we think about it from a market perspective, for us, it was U.S. and the key developed markets of the U.K. and France. And I'm sure in this call, we'll talk a lot about the U.S. But while we're here, I'll talk about the U.K., which we know the U.K. part of it is about our transition to of the Jack Daniel's and Cola to the Jack Daniel's on Coca-Cola business, but we really did see a slowing consumer and a very strong promotional environment during the holiday selling season. And then in France, we saw the slowing consumer trend, even kind of declining more than what we expected with the softness in the whiskey category and definitely some trading down in that market.

當我們從市場角度考慮時，對我們來說，是美國以及英國和法國等主要已開發市場。我確信在這次電話會議中，我們會談論很多關於美國的事情。但是當我們在這裡時，我會談論英國，我們知道英國的一部分是關於我們向 Jack Daniel’s 的過渡和可口可樂對可口可樂業務的傑克丹尼，但我們確實看到消費者在假日銷售季節放緩和非常強大的促銷環境。然後在法國，我們看到消費趨勢放緩，甚至下降幅度超出了我們的預期，因為威士忌類別疲軟，而且該市場的交易肯定有所下降。

And then what I would say then kind of the rest of that piece is the slowdown across many of our emerging international markets, which was just more than what we had expected in our guidance. One thing I can say is you can see in Schedule D -- or sorry, Schedule B that when we reported last time, our shipments and depletions for our full strength portfolio were in line. We now see where we are year-to-date that our depletions are ahead of shipments. So again, that's another signal that we believe that we are kind of moving beyond what we have had to lap. But then as we talk about kind of to your point with the last quarter, like we shared in our last call, when we think about the second half, we know we have to lap, the launch of Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD in the U.S. But when you look at kind of the -- the half as a whole, we have to comp of plus 5%.

然後我想說的是，該文章的其餘部分是我們許多新興國際市場的放緩，這超出了我們在指導中的預期。我可以說的一件事是，您可以在附表D（或抱歉，附表B）中看到，當我們上次報告時，我們的全部實力投資組合的發貨量和消耗量都符合要求。我們現在看到了今年迄今為止我們的消耗量已經超過了發貨量。再說一遍，這是我們相信我們正在超越我們必須超越的另一個信號。但當我們談論上個季度的觀點時，就像我們在上次電話會議中分享的那樣，當我們考慮下半年時，我們知道我們必須一圈，傑克丹尼和可口可樂 RTD 的推出但當你看一下美國的一半時，我們必須增加5%。

And where we believe we're going to be able to do that is, again, with the contribution of our newly acquired brands of Gin Mare and Diplomatico. We're continuing to see benefits from pricing and revenue growth management, which is kind of equating to that strong gross margin expansion that you have seen in our results. And then again, our operating expenses increase. That remains the same, where we had phasing where our brand expense was greater in the first part of the year, we now -- that will moderate through the rest of this year. And SG&A expenses, that's related to the higher compensation and benefits-related expenses as well as our increased expenses for the own distribution investment that we're making in Japan that's set to go live on April 1. So that is all built into our guidance.

我們相信我們能夠做到這一點，再次歸功於我們新收購的品牌 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico 的貢獻。我們繼續看到定價和收入成長管理的好處，這在某種程度上相當於您在我們的業績中看到的強勁的毛利率擴張。然而，我們的營運費用又增加了。這仍然是一樣的，我們在今年上半年分階段品牌費用更大，現在我們 - 這將在今年剩餘時間內放緩。 SG&A 費用，這與較高的薪酬和福利相關費用以及我們在日本進行的自有分銷投資的增加費用有關，該投資將於 4 月 1 日上線。因此，這一切都納入了我們的指導。

Let me give you a shorter version, Lauren. Christmas stunk around the world for the -- I mean we had a lot of markets that disappointed during Christmas this year, which we did not expect when we were thinking about our year-to-go period 3 months ago. So it was surprisingly weak.

讓我給你一個簡短的版本，勞倫。聖誕節在全世界範圍內都令人失望——我的意思是，今年聖誕節期間，我們有很多市場感到失望，這是我們在三個月前考慮即將到來的時期時沒有預料到的。所以它的力量出奇的弱。

Okay. Then just one quick follow-up because that was a very full-some answer. Both versions. The short and long. But what does that mean for inventory levels in Q4? Because I know, Leanne, you called out the shifts versus depletes in that like the big picture laps are getting to a better -- we're moving along. But shipments -- like shipments were also weak for Christmas, right? I'm just trying to put the two pieces together because if you expected Christmas do better, usually the shipments have kind of happened, right? And it's the depletions of the problem. So that's also a little bit surprising to me if I'm making sense. I would expect it to be shipments might have been okay, but depletions would have been the problem and that would be the hangover for Q4.

好的。然後只是一個快速跟進，因為這是一個非常全面的答案。兩個版本。又短又長。但這對第四季的庫存水準意味著什麼呢？因為我知道，Leanne，你指出了轉變與消耗，就像大局圈數正在變得更好一樣——我們正在前進。但聖誕節的出貨量也很疲軟，對嗎？我只是想把這兩部分放在一起，因為如果你預計聖誕節會更好，通常發貨已經發生了，對吧？這就是問題的耗盡。所以如果我說得有道理的話，我也會感到有點驚訝。我預計出貨量可能還好，但耗盡將是問題所在，這將是第四季的後遺症。

Yes. I think what we saw was we didn't see those orders come in for the important holiday selling season like we -- at the level that we traditionally do and being able to comp above where we were. So that didn't come in the way that we expected again in that late November, December time frame that we were expecting. And so when we think about it, again, we continue to be in a bit of a different position, which we've talked about this many times as we rebuilt our inventory. We continue to believe that our inventories through the supplier to the distributor, to the retailers, consumer are in line.

是的。我認為我們看到的是，我們沒有看到像我們一樣在重要的假日銷售季節收到這些訂單——達到我們傳統的水平，並且能夠比我們的水平更高。因此，在 11 月底、12 月的時間範圍內，這並沒有像我們預期的那樣再次出現。因此，當我們再次思考這個問題時，我們仍然處於有點不同的立場，我們在重建庫存時已經多次討論過這一點。我們仍然相信，我們的庫存從供應商到分銷商、零售商、消費者都是一致的。

And really, this is about consumer takeaway at this point for us. And so again, we're -- that fluctuation in consumer takeaway being lower than what we expect to really drove that for us. We do continue to see when we'll go to the U.S. specifically, you continue to see that net change in distributor inventory kind of come back in line if you look from the first half to the third to the 9 months ended, that is coming much more back in line, which we said we expected it to moderate.

事實上，這對我們來說是關於消費者的外賣。再次強調，消費者外送的波動低於我們預期的真正推動因素。我們確實會繼續看看我們什麼時候會特別去美國，如果你從上半年到第三個月再到最後的 9 個月，你會繼續看到分銷商庫存的淨變化會回歸正常。更多的回歸，我們說我們預計它會放緩。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自高盛的邦妮·赫爾佐格。

I actually just maybe have a bit of a follow-on on the conversation you guys were just having. Regarding inventory levels, but more at the consumer I guess, level. Do you have a sense of where these are and really how much you think consumer pantry destocking is impacting the category? And then your thoughts on when that might reverse? And Lawson, do you still believe the category growth will get back to the mid-single-digit range? And then if so, how quickly could this occur?

事實上，我可能只是對你們剛剛進行的談話有一些後續。關於庫存水平，但我想更多的是在消費者層面。您知道這些在哪裡嗎？您認為消費者食品儲藏室去庫存對該類別的影響到底有多大？那麼您對這種情況何時可能逆轉的想法是什麼？勞森，您仍然相信品類成長將回到中個位數範圍嗎？如果是這樣，這種情況發生的速度有多快？

Yes. Okay, Bonnie, it's a good question because we have -- we have talked a lot about that internally over the last few weeks around -- I'm talking about the consumer inventory thing. And I do think, and I believe, although it is -- that's a hard number to get to. There's really no way to study consumer inventories necessarily what's still in the pantry.

是的。好的，邦妮，這是一個很好的問題，因為過去幾週我們在內部討論了很多這個問題，我正在談論消費者庫存的問題。我確實認為，而且我相信，儘管如此——這是一個很難達到的數字。確實沒有辦法研究消費者庫存以及食品儲藏室裡還有什麼。

But my theory, if you look at the last 3, 4, 5 years, you can see the elevated growth rates. Leanne was just quoting a few of them. But let's just focus on the 3-year because it's on that Page 5 of our -- you're looking at a 9% organic growth rate over 3 years, including this year. That is way -- several points above any sort of normal run rate for the most part in our industry. Some of that has to be sitting in a consumer's pantry at home.

但我的理論是，如果你看看過去 3 年、4 年、5 年，你可以看到成長率的提高。莉安只是引用了其中的一些內容。但讓我們只關注 3 年，因為它在我們的第 5 頁上——您會看到 3 年（包括今年）的有機增長率為 9%。就是這樣——在我們行業的大多數情況下，比任何正常運行率都高出幾個點。其中一些必須存放在消費者家中的食品儲藏室中。

Now people think of Spirits is often referred to as a fast-moving consumer good and it's really not. It's not like food or some other categories that move much faster. Spirits, I call it kind of in the middle when I think about different consumer categories, I think about food being the fastest, I think, about -- an exercise bike is the slowest because once you pull that demand forward, you're not going to go buy another bike. Spirits is in the middle. And so it is taking some time to clear those consumer cabinets.

現在人們認為烈酒通常被稱為快速消費品，但事實並非如此。它不像食品或其他一些類別變化得更快。烈酒，當我考慮不同的消費類別時，我稱它為中間的，我認為食物是最快的，我認為，健身自行車是最慢的，因為一旦你拉動這種需求，你就不會要去買另一輛自行車。烈酒在中間。因此，清理這些消費者櫥櫃需要一些時間。

We've said before that we look at like 80% of our consumer base only buys 2 bottles a year. So they have a bottle sitting in their cabinet at home that's probably half full, and it's just the deferred cost. The good thing is we think that if you do the math around that, that should largely be over. And that's why Leanne just said here, we expect going forward particularly in the U.S., I think we're talking, but our sales rates to be much closer to what consumer takeaway is right now.

我們之前說過，我們有 80% 的消費者每年只買 2 瓶。所以他們家裡的櫃子裡有一瓶酒，可能是半滿的，這只是遞延成本。好消息是，我們認為，如果你對此進行數學計算，基本上就應該結束了。這就是為什麼 Leanne 剛剛在這裡說，我們預計會繼續發展，特別是在美國，我想我們正在討論，但我們的銷售率將更接近消費者目前的外賣水平。

That's question one. What's the other? It was -- oh yeah -- when do we get -- yes. TDS getting back to norm of 4% to 5%, which is what it has been for like decades, short of the last couple of years and all the volatility. I know I've seen some of our competitors that have said anywhere from 6 to 18 months, and that's a pretty big -- that's a pretty big range. I think for us is what we're saying, we do believe next year will start to return to those normal levels as this inventory conversation largely, we think, will largely be over.

這是問題一。另一個是什麼？那是——哦，是的——我們什麼時候得到——是的。 TDS 回到了 4% 到 5% 的正常水平，這就是幾十年來的情況，比過去幾年和所有波動要少。我知道我見過我們的一些競爭對手說過 6 到 18 個月不等，這是一個相當大的範圍。我認為對我們來說就是我們所說的，我們確實相信明年將開始恢復到正常水平，因為我們認為庫存對話基本上將結束。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan, you may proceed.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira，您可以繼續。

This is Drew Levine on for Andrea. So just following up on the U.S. You talked about some changes in consumer behavior internationally in France. I think you're seeing some trade down. Can you talk about what you're seeing in the U.S. any items of perhaps more value-seeking challenges or trade down? And then also what you're seeing from an on-premise perspective, if there's been any incremental softness there?

我是德魯·萊文 (Drew Levine) 替安德里亞 (Andrea) 發言。那麼，剛剛跟進美國，您談到了法國國際消費者行為的一些變化。我認為你會看到一些交易下降。您能談談您在美國看到的任何可能更有價值追求的挑戰或貿易下降的項目嗎？然後，從內部部署的角度來看，是否存在任何增量疲軟？

Yes. So look, I mean, on the trade down -- this is the U.S. And I think this is good news, I think, relative to probably what people are expecting. But if you look at the data, particularly I'm looking at Nielsen data, over the last 3 months, you're not seeing trade down. And we've still got the same dynamic where I'll simplify a little bit here, but $30 and above is growing much -- and take RTDs aside to pull that out of that when I say this, but 30 and above is growing at a materially better number than 30 and below. And so that's just -- we're not seeing the trade down in our own portfolio, and we're not really seeing it across the industry yet. So I think that just hasn't happened.

是的。所以，我的意思是，關於貿易下降——這就是美國，我認為，相對於人們的預期，這是個好消息。但如果你看一下過去三個月的數據，特別是尼爾森的數據，你就不會看到交易下降。我們仍然有同樣的動態，我在這裡稍微簡化一下，但 30 美元及以上的價格增長很多——當我這麼說時，將 RTD 放在一邊以將其拉出來，但 30 美元及以上的價格增長這個數字比30 及以下好得多。所以這只是 - 我們沒有看到我們自己的投資組合中的交易下降，而且我們還沒有真正看到整個行業的情況。所以我認為這還沒有發生。

And that -- I think we were expecting to see maybe a little bit more of that. So I generally consider that good news. And on the pricing environment, which you didn't specifically ask about that, but I think it's worth talking about that for a second because pricing really has not -- we've been worried as you've seen, consumer weakness, but somehow that would result in more aggressive pricing, deeper pricing to Christmas, all those kind of things. And it didn't really happen. And we're not really seeing that coming through the data right now. If you look at TDS across spirits, it's still positive, like plus 1 or 1.5, something right in there.

我認為我們期待看到更多這樣的事。所以我一般認為這是個好消息。關於定價環境，您沒有具體詢問這一點，但我認為值得討論一下，因為定價確實沒有——正如您所看到的，我們一直擔心消費者疲軟，但不知何故這將導致更激進的定價，聖誕節前更深層的定價，諸如此類的事情。但這並沒有真正發生。我們現在還沒有真正從數據中看到這一點。如果你觀察各種烈酒的 TDS，它仍然是正數，就像加 1 或 1.5 一樣，就在那裡。

And interestingly, this is where we were narrowing down even quicker is tequila in the U.S. and then U.S. whiskey across the U.S. and both are also positive. So there's been a lot of speculation that tequila pricing would start to fall apart as the costs have come down. It's just not showing. And if you look at the last 13 weeks, and you go -- which would cover the Christmas time period, both those categories saw improved pricing, not lower. And so while I do hear a lot of these anecdotal stories of XYZ brand went deep or whatever it might have been, and there are examples out there like that. But for the most part, pricing is holding up so far, and I consider that to be a pretty big positive too.

有趣的是，我們更快地縮小了美國龍舌蘭酒的範圍，然後是美國各地的美國威士忌，兩者都是積極的。因此，有許多猜測認為，隨著成本的下降，龍舌蘭酒的定價將開始崩潰。它只是沒有顯示出來。如果你看看過去 13 週，你會發現——這將涵蓋聖誕節期間，這兩個類別的價格都會有所提高，而不是降低。因此，雖然我確實聽到了很多關於 XYZ 品牌的軼事故事，但這些故事都很深入，或者無論它可能是什麼，而且也有這樣的例子。但在大多數情況下，到目前為止，定價保持不變，我認為這也是一個相當大的正面因素。

On premise?

在前提？

On-premise. Do you have -- don't have the on-premise number in front of me. Sorry, we don't -- I don't have the on-premise numbers right in front of me. So I don't -- I haven't seen a material change in those necessarily. But trying to find the data point. Let's get back to you on the on-premise one.

本地部署。你有嗎——沒有我面前的內部電話號碼。抱歉，我們沒有——我面前沒有本地號碼。所以我不認為——我還沒有看到這些方面必然發生實質變化。但試圖找到數據點。讓我們回到本地。

This is where we talked about that there's 2 points of acceleration compared to the October 23. So we continue to see acceleration there with TDS and Brown-Forman now growing low single digits.

我們在這裡談到，與 10 月 23 日相比，有 2 個百分點的加速。因此，我們繼續看到那裡的加速，TDS 和 Brown-Forman 現在增長較低的個位數。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Chris Pitcher with Redburn Atlantic.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn Atlantic 的 Chris Pitcher。

Just a question in terms of buying patterns. You sort of alluded to it. But in the current environment, have you seen any structural changes in how retailers or wholesalers are buying in given the sort of the interest rate environment and the uncertainty. Is that creating making it harder for you guys to plan? And then if I can have a follow-up, just on Japan, you flagged that as being one of the areas that got hit hard by destocking. With sales down 100%, it's quite hard to gauge what the real underlying revenue is with your new route to market there. Could you give us an idea of what sort of scale the Japanese business is still running at despite all these massive distortions?

只是購買模式方面的問題。你好像有提到它。但在當前環境下，考慮到利率環境和不確定性，零售商或批發商的購買方式是否發生了任何結構性變化？這種創造會讓你們更難制定計畫嗎？然後，如果我可以跟進一下，就日本而言，您將其標記為因去庫存而受到嚴重打擊的地區之一。由於銷售額下降了 100%，很難衡量您的新行銷路線的真正潛在收入是多少。您能否告訴我們，儘管存在這些巨大的扭曲，日本企業的營運規模仍然如何？

Yes. So I'll go back to the first part of your question, which is as far as buying patterns, we shared with you, I think, in our last call that as how we prioritize rebuilding the markets that we have with -- and replenishing their distributor and retailer inventory. That kind of has changed in the short term, our traditional consistent seasonality of the shipments that we -- pattern buying that we have seen. We're still lapping some of that, especially as you get into our emerging international markets, and we're lapping the way that we rebuilt that and the timing and the cadence is a little bit different. It makes -- it does make it a little bit harder. But I think for us, the biggest piece again was back to that important holiday selling season and consumers being stretching their discretionary spend because of how they've been impacted with interest rates and inflation.

是的。因此，我將回到你問題的第一部分，就購買模式而言，我想，在我們上次電話會議中，我們與你分享了我們如何優先考慮重建我們擁有的市場以及補充他們的分銷商和零售商庫存。這種情況在短期內發生了變化，我們傳統的一致的出貨季節性——我們所看到的購買模式。我們仍在嘗試其中的一些，特別是當你進入我們的新興國際市場時，我們正在嘗試重建的方式，但時間和節奏有點不同。它確實讓事情變得有點困難。但我認為對我們來說，最重要的還是回到了那個重要的假期銷售季節，消費者因為受到利率和通貨膨脹的影響而擴大了可自由支配的支出。

And for Japan, when we look at that business, again, this has been a year of kind of two pieces. One was how we've rebuilt our inventory in the prior year. And I think we said in our prepared remarks, we had a backlog of orders waiting for supply to be able to fill those we were able to do that in the second half of last year. So coupling that with our route-to-consumer change, it has just basically -- we haven't needed to make any shipments to Japan this year.

對日本來說，當我們再次審視這項業務時，今年是兩件事的一年。其中之一是我們如何在前一年重建庫存。我想我們在準備好的發言中說過，我們有積壓的訂單等待供應，以便能夠填補我們去年下半年能夠做到的訂單。因此，再加上我們面向消費者的路線變化，我們今年基本上不需要向日本出貨。

To your point, what's the business look like more on a depletion base. And we would say we have been in frequent connection with the team there as they continue to progress to this own distribution model on April 1.

就你的觀點而言，在耗盡的基礎上，業務看起來更像是怎樣的。我們可以說，我們一直與那裡的團隊保持著頻繁的聯繫，因為他們在 4 月 1 日繼續推進自己的分發模式。

And from a depletion base, we are still excited about the health of our brands in that market. So again, I would say from an organic perspective, we just have -- we're investing in the long-term value creation opportunity in Japan, and it's set to be a growth driver as we're moving forward.

從耗盡的基礎來看，我們仍然對我們品牌在該市場的健康狀況感到興奮。所以，我想說，從有機的角度來看，我們正在投資日本的長期價值創造機會，隨著我們的前進，它將成為成長動力。

Just quick -- normally, a company -- a country, a market would drop out if it's not in the top 10 in a period. Can we assume the fact that you've still put Japan in there that it would be a top 10 market for you on a normalized basis?

很快地——通常，一家公司、一個國家、一個市場如果在一段時間內沒有進入前十名，就會被淘汰。我們是否可以假設您仍然將日本列入正常化的基礎上，它將成為您的十大市場？

Yes. How we set our top 10, and I think we have it in our Q, it's basically set on April 30 of our prior year. So it's in there for that reason.

是的。我們如何設定前 10 名，我想我們已經在 Q 中提到了，它基本上是在上一年的 4 月 30 日設置的。所以它就在那裡。

Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nadine Sarwat 和 Bernstein。

Two for me. First, just a clarifying question. You had mentioned your view that perhaps the market in the U.S. could get back to that historical 4% to 5% value growth in the next year. Could I just clarify with that fiscal next year or calendar next year? And then my second question is something I think a lot of people are bringing up amongst investors, the topic of moderation, perhaps younger consumers drinking less adding some GLP-1s in there. I mean all of this has been thrown around as potential reason for the weakness that we're seeing in U.S. spirits. But to be honest, in U.S. alcohol more broadly with the implication that, that could be a permanent change. I would be curious to get your views on that, those -- all those factors I listed and where do you think it goes from here?

給我兩個。首先，只是一個澄清問題。您曾提到您的觀點，即美國市場明年可能會恢復到 4% 至 5% 的歷史價值成長水準。我可以澄清一下明年的財政年度或明年的日曆嗎？然後我的第二個問題是我認為很多人都在投資者中提出的問題，即適度的話題，也許年輕消費者飲酒較少，添加一些 GLP-1。我的意思是，所有這些都被認為是美國烈酒疲軟的潛在原因。但說實話，在美國酒精產業，這可能是個永久性的改變。我很想知道你對此的看法，我列出的所有這些因素，你認為它會走向何方？

Yes. Good. So Nadine, a few things on this because it's obviously a topic that we have spent a lot of time trying to understand a little bit better, too. If over the last -- I'll make it up, 5 years, we had seen TDS go from 5% to 4% to 3% to 2% to 1%, something like that. I would be concerned with some of those things you just talked about, wellness trends, cannabis trends, GLP-1s, all those types of things, that would be an indicator that something is happening structurally in the business that's going to -- that could be permanent. But that's not what we saw. We -- as I think everyone on this call knows, I mean that 4% to 5% range with COVID moved it around volatility-wise, but it has been in that range for decades.

是的。好的。納丁，對此有一些事情，因為這顯然也是我們花了很多時間試圖更好地理解的話題。如果在過去－我會彌補一下，5年裡，我們看到TDS從5%到4%到3%到2%到1%，類似這樣的。我會關心你剛才談到的一些事情，健康趨勢、大麻趨勢、GLP-1，所有這些類型的事情，這將是一個指標，表明業務中正在發生結構性的事情，這可能會是永久的。但我們看到的並非如此。我想參加這次電話會議的每個人都知道，我的意思是，新冠疫情的 4% 到 5% 的波動範圍使其波動性左右，但幾十年來一直處於這個範圍。

And then all of a sudden, we know -- if you look at TDS, the same -- you look at July of last summer, and you see a very sharp deceleration in the market like GLP-1s or cannabis is not going to take a market and move it 4 or 5 points seemingly overnight. And so I just don't think that's what is -- I don't think those big macro concerns that are out there are what is impacting the market today. Now over the next decade or 2, do I want to look at that and understand that better. It is -- it could be a headwind, yes. But particularly on a healthier Gen Z kind of conversation.

然後突然之間，我們知道 - 如果你看看 TDS，同樣的 - 你看看去年夏天的 7 月，你會發現像 GLP-1 或大麻這樣的市場急劇減速是不會發生的市場似乎在一夜之間就移動了4 或5 個點。所以我認為事實並非如此——我不認為那些重大的宏觀擔憂正在影響當今的市場。現在，在接下來的十年或兩年裡，我是否想更好地審視並理解這一點？是的，這可能是個逆風。但尤其是關於 Z 世代更健康的對話。

Cannabis, that's been around now for -- I don't even know, 10-plus years, whatever it is. We studied that 18 ways until Sunday and have never been able to find a state where we saw reduced alcohol consumption based on going legal, and it's tough to do now because so many places are legal. But -- so yes, so I do think, in general, these are shorter-term challenges, particularly the U.S., but it's also true in Europe to Europe is feeling a lot of the same macro factors in the U.S. is. And I do think that it's the combination of what we've already talked about, but the very difficult comps.

大麻，我什至不知道，已經存在了十多年了，不管它是什麼。直到週日為止，我們研究了 18 種方法，但從未找到一個可以透過合法化來減少酒精消費的州，現在很難做到這一點，因為很多地方都是合法的。但是，是的，所以我確實認為，總的來說，這些都是短期挑戰，尤其是美國，但在歐洲也是如此，歐洲感受到了許多與美國相同的宏觀因素。我確實認為這是我們已經討論過的內容的結合，但是非常困難的比較。

I think the consumer is weaker than it was, say, this time last year. But now predicting is the turnaround going to be 6 months or 12 months, I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball on that. But I am a believer that the macro factors impacting our business are more short term in nature than these big macro headwinds.

我認為消費者比去年這個時候更弱。但現在預測週轉時間是 6 個月還是 12 個月，我不知道。我對此沒有水晶球。但我相信，影響我們業務的宏觀因素本質上比這些巨大的宏觀阻力更短期。

Got it. And just to confirm that getting back to 4% to 5% next year comment with that next year fiscal or calendar?

知道了。只是為了確認明年回到 4% 到 5% 的評論與明年的財政或日曆？

I don't know if I was kind of -- I'm not making it up, but I mean it's more of a return to normal over the next, call it, 12 to 24 months in our world, something like that.

我不知道我是不是——我不是在編造，但我的意思是，在我們的世界裡，接下來的12到24個月，更多的是恢復正常，類似的事情。

Yes. And then the one thing that we looked at is in history is not always a predictor of the future for many reasons we know. When we went and looked back at the last time the consumer was really stretched with macroeconomic factors we looked at 2000, 2001, 2008, 2009. And they were followed by really strong years of growth. And those trends were when they were negatively impacted were much shorter, unlike Lawson just said, it's kind of the 12- to 18-month window by which we're already in it. So none of us know, but that's what history has said to us.

是的。然後，由於我們知道的許多原因，我們在歷史中看到的一件事並不總是對未來的預測。當我們回顧上一次消費者因宏觀經濟因素而真正捉襟見肘的時候，我們回顧了 2000 年、2001 年、2008 年、2009 年。隨後的幾年是非常強勁的成長。這些趨勢在受到負面影響時要短得多，與勞森剛才所說的不同，我們已經處於 12 到 18 個月的窗口期。所以我們誰也不知道，但這就是歷史告訴我們的。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的埃里克塞羅塔。

First of all, I'm hoping you could expand upon your comments earlier on pricing and promotions. First, I guess, as a housekeeping item, when did your pricing in the U.S. particularly on Jack Daniel's go in? And then I know you said that the -- those are not seeing much pricing in the data, but it does seem like it's more than kind of one-off anecdotal or the anecdotal reports about discounting seem to be more than one off. I know Diageo mentioned some increased promotions in the U.S. Just wondering if you have any broader perspective between what seems to be a broader theme of increased promotions and what you guys are seeing in the data.

首先，我希望您能在早期詳細闡述您對定價和促銷活動的評論。首先，我想，作為家事用品，你們在美國的定價，特別是傑克丹尼的定價是什麼時候開始的？然後我知道你說過，那些在數據中沒有看到太多定價，但它似乎不僅僅是一次性的軼事，或者有關折扣的軼事報告似乎不僅僅是一次性的。我知道帝亞吉歐提到在美國增加了一些促銷活動，只是想知道你們在增加促銷活動的更廣泛主題與你們在數據中看到的內容之間是否有更廣泛的視角。

Yes. Well, on the -- pricing history, I guess, when did it kick in? It was if we're talking about the U.S., it was about 3 years ago now. So we have chosen, I think, a slightly different path than some of our competitors. We've talked about this numerous times, but it's kind of that low and slow. And it's what I want to see continuing going forward and is what we're trying to strive in even over the next 12 or 24 months. And that's a U.S. comment for the most part, but it actually does apply to much of the rest of the world, too. Europe has had pretty healthy price increases in the last couple of years, too, which is collectively why we -- one of the main reasons why we've been able to improve our gross margin. And so I have very little interest in giving that back. And so we're going to continue to be pretty strong with that.

是的。好吧，關於定價歷史，我想，它是什麼時候開始的？如果我們談論美國，那已經是大約三年前的事了。因此，我認為我們選擇了一條與我們的一些競爭對手略有不同的道路。我們已經多次討論過這個問題，但它的速度有點低且緩慢。這是我希望看到的繼續發展，也是我們在未來 12 或 24 個月內努力奮鬥的目標。這在很大程度上是美國的評論，但實際上也適用於世界其他大部分地區。歐洲在過去幾年也出現了相當健康的價格上漲，這也是我們能夠提高毛利率的主要原因之一。所以我對回饋它沒什麼興趣。因此，我們將繼續保持強大的實力。

As I mentioned earlier, I mean, I know anecdotally, it feels that way, and I've heard the same things, and I saw what some of our competitors have said. But the reality is it's not coming through the data. So I don't know sure how else to answer that. I mean we talked about trade down earlier, a couple of questions ago or the lack of, I should say. So it's not coming through and trade down the year, and we're not seeing it in terms of really individual brands that have all of a sudden gone deep. And by the way, I think it's worth probably commenting to, and this is a very high level. So I have personally -- we're not deep studying this quite yet. But the competitive some of the brands that have gone lower haven't seen much in the way of a decent rebound in their volume.

正如我之前提到的，我的意思是，據我所知，感覺是這樣，我也聽過同樣的事情，我也看到了我們的一些競爭對手的說法。但現實是它不是透過數據得出的。所以我不知道還能如何回答這個問題。我的意思是，我們早些時候討論過貿易下降，幾個問題之前或我應該說缺乏貿易。因此，今年它不會出現並下降，而且我們也沒有看到真正的個別品牌突然深入。順便說一句，我認為這可能值得評論，這是一個非常高的水平。所以我個人認為──我們還沒有深入研究這個問題。但一些價格下跌的競爭品牌的銷售並沒有太大的反彈。

I'm just not sure these -- I'm not sure that's the core consumer problem right now is higher pricing. Pricing elasticity are, as I said, low and slow, but if you compare pricing changes over the last 2, 3 years to what grocery has done to what other consumer categories have done where it was much more -- you saw much higher inflation in the food channel, let's say, than you did in spirits. And so I just -- I don't think -- I'm not that worried that our pricing actions have chased consumers away from our products. I just don't -- I think that will be sort of missing what the actual problem is.

我只是不確定這些——我不確定現在的核心消費者問題是更高的價格。正如我所說，定價彈性低且緩慢，但如果你將過去 2、3 年的價格變化與雜貨店的做法與其他消費類別的做法進行比較，你會發現比如說，食品頻道的頻道比烈酒頻道的頻道要多。所以我只是——我不認為——我並不擔心我們的定價行為會讓消費者遠離我們的產品。我只是不知道——我認為這有點忽略了真正的問題是什麼。

Great. And then just one other question. I'm hoping to get your perspective on either Brown-Forman or industry barrel whiskey inventories obviously been a massive investment cycle over the past decade, making up for the previous for 4 decades. But maybe, hopefully, you could give some comments as to where you think inventories are today relative to future demand, realizing you've got a plan for multi-decade cycles here?

偉大的。然後還有一個問題。我希望了解您對布朗福曼威士忌或工業桶裝威士忌庫存的看法，這顯然是過去十年中一個巨大的投資週期，彌補了之前 4 個十年的損失。但也許，希望您能就您認為當前庫存相對於未來需求的情況發表一些評論，並意識到您已經制定了數十年周期的計劃？

Yes. So I'll talk about our barrel whiskey inventory. And I think for anybody who's followed us for a while, you've probably heard us say that we have a very robust semiannual process where we're always adjusting to future consumer demand outlook. And with doing that, we capture the change in trends if there are any. So when you look at our barrel whiskey, we're constantly adjusting it. When you look at our balance sheet, when you see increases for us there. It is about looking out over the long term, and that represents our future growth expectations.

是的。所以我要談談我們的桶裝威士忌庫存。我認為對於任何關注我們一段時間的人來說，您可能已經聽過我們說我們有一個非常強大的半年度流程，我們總是根據未來的消費者需求前景進行調整。透過這樣做，我們可以捕捉趨勢的變化（如果有）。因此，當您查看我們的桶裝威士忌時，我們會不斷對其進行調整。當你查看我們的資產負債表時，你會看到我們的成長。它是著眼於長期，這代表了我們未來的成長預期。

And you probably -- with work in process, also in some brands, you would find our aging inventories there. And we -- with the acquisition of Diplomatico you would have seen that increase as well. So for many in the industry. I don't want to speak on anybody's behalf but many in the industry use not the same proprietary way of doing the work, but I know that they often look at their long-term demand over that cycle as well. So I think people are always adjusting.

您可能會在某些品牌的在製品中找到我們的老化庫存。透過收購 Diplomatico，我們也會看到這一成長。對於許多業內人士也是如此。我不想代表任何人發言，但業內許多人使用的專有方式並不相同，但我知道他們也經常考慮該週期內的長期需求。所以我認為人們總是在調整。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS. You may proceed.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的彼得‧葛羅姆。您可以繼續。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. So I guess I'm a bit confused by the commentary on the top line trajectory. So on one hand, you're talking about a normalization of category growth. And you'd expect that to get back to that mid-single-digit growth at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. And that would kind of seem to imply that '25 could be another challenging year. But on the other hand, if you back out the distributor inventory headwind, which sounds like you expect to be largely complete after 4Q. You're kind of already at this mid-single-digit growth rate. So I know we'll get to fiscal '25 in June. But how should we think about the building blocks for your organic growth outlook for over the next 12 to 18 months. Should we focus more on that category growth rate? Or should we be kind of focusing on kind of lapping this distributor inventory headwinds?

謝謝接線員，大家早安。希望你做得很好。所以我想我對頂線軌蹟的評論有點困惑。因此，一方面，您正在談論品類成長的正常化。您預計在未來 12 至 18 個月的某個時間點將恢復到中個位數成長。這似乎意味著 25 年可能又是充滿挑戰的一年。但另一方面，如果您取消分銷商庫存逆風，這聽起來您預計將在第四季度後基本完成。您已經達到了中等個位數的成長率。所以我知道我們將在 6 月進入 25 財年。但我們應該如何考慮未來 12 至 18 個月有機成長前景的建構基石。我們應該更關注該類別的成長率嗎？或者我們應該專注於克服經銷商庫存的逆風？

Yes. So as excited as we are to begin to talk about our next fiscal year, we'll have that in full detail for you in our next call.

是的。因此，儘管我們很高興開始談論我們的下一個財政年度，但我們將在下次電話會議中為您詳細介紹這一點。

But I do think you picked up on an important point. If you look at that depletion schedule or Schedule D, if you assume that we're there from an inventory perspective, certainly, depletions are better than certainly a lot better than shipments over this year. So we're getting there. We're getting capacities comps. I mean there's like light at the end of the tunnel. We can't get there fast enough, but we're almost there.

但我確實認為你抓住了一個重要的觀點。如果你看一下消耗時間表或時間表D，如果你假設我們從庫存的角度來看，當然，消耗比今年的出貨量要好得多。所以我們正在實現目標。我們正在獲得容量比較。我的意思是隧道盡頭有光。我們無法足夠快地到達那裡，但我們已經快到了。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on gross margin. I know a lot of moving pieces here, and Lawson, I appreciate the commentary on the year-to-date progress. But from a quarterly perspective, you would have to really go back to kind of the tariff date to see a sequential step down of this magnitude in the third quarter relative to the second quarter. Was that simply a function of a weaker volume performance? Or was there something else that drove that kind of sequential step down?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是對毛利率進行快速跟進。我知道這裡有很多令人感動的事情，勞森，我很欣賞他對今年迄今進展的評論。但從季度角度來看，你必須真正回到關稅日期，才能看到第三季相對於第二季出現如此幅度的連續下降。這僅僅是音量性能較弱的結果嗎？或者還有什麼其他因素導致了這種連續的下台？

Yes. So when we think about our gross margin and the outlook that we have driven by a couple of things. So one, we lapped supply chain disruption. And largely speaking, we had the majority of the cost in our second quarter of last year. So that benefit continues to moderate as we move through the rest of the year. And then just as we do kind of estimates from an inventory costing perspective, we would have had a benefit in our fourth quarter of last year that we will have to comp this year. But all of that has been built into our full year guidance for the entire year where you've been able to see kind of the difference between our top line growth estimates and our operating income and the leverage that we've expected through there.

是的。因此，當我們考慮我們的毛利率和由幾件事驅動的前景時。第一，我們經歷了供應鏈中斷。基本上來說，我們的大部分成本是在去年第二季產生的。因此，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，這種好處繼續減弱。然後，正如我們從庫存成本核算的角度進行估計一樣，我們在去年第四季會獲得收益，而今年我們必須進行補償。但所有這些都已納入我們全年的全年指導中，您可以看到我們的營收成長預期與我們的營業收入以及我們預期的槓桿率之間的差異。

But we have been very happy to return to gross margin expansion and have the strong expansion that we've had through the 9 months to date. But again, talking about in that last quarter, it will go more towards the guidance that we have provided.

但我們非常高興能夠恢復毛利率擴張，並實現迄今為止 9 個月以來的強勁擴張。但同樣，在上個季度談論時，它將更多地轉向我們提供的指導。

One moment for questions. Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni with Citi.

請稍等一下提問。我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

I have a question on the ready-to-drink spirits part of the category, particularly in the U.S. If you look at total Spirits categories stripping out, ready to drink actually, the trends have been a lot more negative than it looks on the surface. So do you think this growth in the ready-to-drink spirits is more structural? And have you done any work of calculating any impact on your volumes given, obviously, you sell less liquid in registered drink compared to like a full bottle if that were to continue to grow at this rate? And following up on the margin part, you talked in the past about ready-to-drink spirits being more of gross margin dilutive, although more similar at the operating margin level. So any thought on the margin implications would be helpful.

我有一個關於該類別的即飲烈酒部分的問題，特別是在美國。如果你看看整個烈酒類別，實際上是即飲烈酒，趨勢比表面看起來要消極得多。那麼您認為即飲烈酒的成長更具結構性嗎？您是否做過任何工作來計算對銷量的影響，顯然，如果您以這種速度繼續增長，與整瓶飲料相比，您銷售的註冊飲料中的液體會減少？關於利潤率部分，您過去曾談到，即飲烈酒更多地稀釋了毛利率，儘管在營業利潤率水平上更為相似。因此，任何關於邊際影響的想法都會有所幫助。

Well, your first part of that was the TDS. And yes, you're right, RTDs are boosting TDS for sure. You take those out and it's closer to flat, which honestly is close to flat -- it's been 30-plus years since TDS has gone negative in the United States, not since the early 1990s when they had the excise tax changes. So from a pure TDS takeaway U.S. figure, it's about as bad as it's been what it is as bad as it's been in my career. So there are certainly challenges there.

嗯，第一部分是 TDS。是的，您是對的，RTD 確實會提高 TDS。你把這些去掉，它就更接近持平了，老實說，這已經接近持平了——美國 TDS 為負值已經有 30 多年了，而不是從 20 世紀 90 年代初消費稅發生變化以來。因此，從純粹的 TDS 數據來看，美國的情況與我職業生涯中的情況一樣糟糕。所以那裡肯定有挑戰。

Now do I think there's this big structural move in the world of RTDs. One, I mean, they meet a lot of consumer trends and needs right now. So I do believe it's a very powerful category. But if you go back over the last 20 or 30 years, and you look through our industry, there have been so many booms and busts of different brands that we always start out by talking about California Cooler 30 years at Brown-Forman -- 30 years ago on it went from 12 million cases to 0 in about 2 years.

現在，我認為 RTD 領域正在發生重大結構性變化。一，我的意思是，它們滿足了現在的許多消費者趨勢和需求。所以我確實相信這是一個非常強大的類別。但如果你回顧過去 20 或 30 年，縱觀我們的行業，會發現不同品牌經歷瞭如此多的繁榮和蕭條，我們總是從談論加州冷卻器在 Brown-Forman 的 30 年—— 30幾年前，大約兩年內病例數從1200 萬例減少到0 例。

So I mean there are booms and busts in that space. Jack & Cola is a little part -- Jack & Coke is a bit different in that it's such an established strength already. It's the largest bar crawl in the world. That is not a [fact] in my mind. There are other brands we'll see. We've seen what happened to the mall-based RTDs over the last few years and that category got blown up largely by the spirit-based RTDs. So it's -- it's a volatile space for sure.

所以我的意思是這個領域有繁榮也有蕭條。 Jack & Cola 是一個小角色——Jack & Coke 有點不同，因為它已經是既定的優勢。這是世界上最大的串酒吧活動。在我看來，這不是一個[事實]。我們還會看到其他品牌。我們已經看到了過去幾年中基於商場的 RTD 所發生的情況，並且該類別在很大程度上受到基於烈酒的 RTD 的影響。所以這肯定是一個不穩定的空間。

And then to your -- the liquid part and the margin part of your question, from liquid, yes, there is less liquid in the case of RTDs, of course, then the full strength but we will be planning to supply liquid to significantly broader geographic reach with this product. Again, and we just talked about the process that we use and looking for the demand needed for liquid. So that would be built into there.

然後是你的問題的流動性部分和保證金部分，從液體來看，是的，RTD 的流動性較少，當然，然後是全部強度，但我們將計劃向更廣泛的範圍提供液體該產品的地理覆蓋範圍。再說一次，我們剛剛討論了我們使用的過程以及尋找液體所需的需求。所以這將被內置到那裡。

And then from a margin perspective, though, gross margins for RTDs are lower than our company average. Jack & Coke should be higher than the rest of our RTD portfolio because we will have advertising support jointly funded between Brown-Forman and the Coca-Cola Company. And we have to look at it in totality of when we're increasing our RTD business that we're also adding in the two super and ultra-premium brands of Gin Mare and Diplomatico, which have higher gross margins than the company. So you'll have to take all of those factors into account.

但從利潤率的角度來看，RTD 的毛利率低於我們公司的平均值。 Jack & Coke 應該高於我們的 RTD 產品組合的其他產品，因為我們將獲得 Brown-Forman 和可口可樂公司共同資助的廣告支援。我們必須從整體上看待這一點，當我們增加 RTD 業務時，我們還增加了 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico 這兩個超級和超高端品牌，這兩個品牌的毛利率比該公司更高。因此，您必須考慮所有這些因素。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sue Perram for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想將電話轉回給蘇·佩拉姆 (Sue Perram)，讓其發表結束語。

Thank you. And thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Third Quarter and Year-to-Date fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. We look forward to seeing many of you in Louisville on Wednesday, March 20, for our 2024 Investor Day. Presentations by the company's executive leaders will focus on Brown-Forman's strategic priorities and long-term ambitions. Details regarding the live webcast of the presentation along with a question-and-answer session can be found in the March 4 press release about the event. And with that, this concludes today's call.

謝謝。感謝 Lawson 和 Leanne，也感謝大家今天參加 Brown-Forman 的第三季和年初至今的 2024 財年財報電話會議。如果您還有任何其他問題，請與我們聯絡。我們期待 3 月 20 日星期三在路易斯維爾與大家見面，慶祝我們的 2024 年投資者日。公司執行領導人的演講將重點放在 Brown-Forman 的策略重點和長期目標。有關演示文稿現場網絡直播以及問答環節的詳細信息，請參閱 3 月 4 日有關該活動的新聞稿。今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。