Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Third Quarter and Year-to-Date Fiscal '23 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

    美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加第三季度和年初至今的 23 財年收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)

  • Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Ms. Sue Perram, Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Ms. Perram. Please go ahead.

    請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人,副總裁兼投資者關係總監 Sue Perram 女士。佩拉姆女士。請繼續。

  • Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

    Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Third Quarter and year-to-date fiscal 2023 earnings call. Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations.

    謝謝大家,早上好。我要感謝你們每個人今天加入我們,參加 Brown-Forman 的第三季度和年初至今的 2023 財年財報電話會議。今天加入我的是總裁兼首席執行官 Lawson Whiting;執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Leanne Cunningham。今天上午的電話會議包含基於我們當前預期的前瞻性陳述。

  • Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, and except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise. This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the third quarter and 9 months ended January 31, 2023, in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily.

    許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中預期或預測的結果存在重大差異。許多決定未來結果的因素都超出了公司的控製或預測能力。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述,除法律要求外,公司不承擔更新任何此類陳述的義務,無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。今天上午,我們發布了一份新聞稿,其中包含我們截至 2023 年 1 月 31 日的第三季度和 9 個月的業績,此外還發布了 Lawson 和 Leanne 將暫時瀏覽的演示材料。

  • Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations. In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors that you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures, a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial condition and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

    新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們網站上標題為“投資者、活動和演示文稿”的部分下找到。在新聞稿中,我們列出了您應該結合我們的前瞻性陳述考慮的一些風險因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格報告中描述了其他重大風險因素。在這次電話會議中,我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務措施。這些措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的協調以及管理層認為它們向投資者提供有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息的原因包含在新聞稿和投資者介紹中。有了這個,我想把電話轉給勞森。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Thank you, Sue, and hello, everyone. I'm proud of the results that we're sharing with you today as we delivered strong organic performance for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023. Before I go into the details of our most recent results, I wanted to take a moment to step back and acknowledge that it has now been 3 full years since March of 2020, which for Brown-Forman and the world was the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since that time, we've experienced significant volatility and uncertainty while always remaining focused on the long-term health and growth of our portfolio of brands and our people.

    謝謝你,蘇,大家好。我為今天與您分享的結果感到自豪,因為我們在 2023 財年的前 9 個月實現了強勁的有機業績。在詳細介紹我們最近的結果之前,我想花點時間了解一下回顧並承認,自 2020 年 3 月以來已經整整 3 年了,這對 Brown-Forman 和世界來說是 COVID-19 大流行的開始。從那時起,我們經歷了巨大的波動和不確定性,同時始終專注於我們品牌組合和員工的長期健康和增長。

  • Consider that during this 3-year time period, we added 2 new super premium brands in Gin Mare and Diplomático and we divested others. We just launched a major global initiative with Jack & Coke. We grew by more than 500 employees as we evolved our route-to-consumers in 5 markets, strengthened our integrated marketing communications capabilities and grew our emerging brands teams, among other changes.

    想想在這 3 年的時間裡,我們在 Gin Mare 和 Diplomático 添加了 2 個新的超高端品牌,並剝離了其他品牌。我們剛剛與 Jack & Coke 發起了一項重大的全球計劃。隨著我們在 5 個市場發展面向消費者的途徑、加強我們的整合營銷傳播能力並發展我們的新興品牌團隊以及其他變化,我們增加了 500 多名員工。

  • And importantly, compared to the first 9 months of fiscal '20, we grew Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey by 1.5 million cases in which we reserved by 500,000 cases even amid severe supply chain constraints. Through it all, we delivered what our investors have come to expect from Brown-Forman, consistent, reliable compounding of growth. If you follow Brown-Forman long enough, you know that we often speak not in quarters or years or even decades, we speak in generations. And I truly believe one of our greatest competitive advantages is this long-term perspective.

    重要的是,與 20 財年的前 9 個月相比,我們的 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 增加了 150 萬箱,其中我們保留了 500,000 箱,即使在嚴重的供應鏈限制下也是如此。通過這一切,我們實現了投資者對 Brown-Forman 的期望,即持續、可靠的複合增長。如果您長期關注 Brown-Forman,就會知道我們通常不是以季度、年甚至幾十年為單位,而是以幾代人為單位。我堅信我們最大的競爭優勢之一就是這種長遠的眼光。

  • It allows us to demonstrate creativity and resilience in the face of constant change to execute on our strategic priorities and invest boldly behind our brands and our people. This focus has allowed us to deliver short-term results that are in line and recently even ahead of our historical growth rates while still investing in our business.

    它使我們能夠在面對不斷變化的情況下展示創造力和韌性,以執行我們的戰略重點並大膽投資於我們的品牌和員工。這種專注使我們能夠在繼續投資於我們的業務的同時,提供與我們的歷史增長率一致甚至最近甚至領先於我們歷史增長率的短期結果。

  • And it is this long-term focus that gives me confidence that as the world and our business begin to normalize, we will continue to deliver against our long-term growth algorithm, producing mid-single-digit organic top line growth and high single-digit organic operating income growth over the next decade. So regardless of how you look at our business through the lens of the last 3 months, the last 3 quarters, the last 3 years or the last 3 decades, I believe you will reach the same conclusion. Brown-Forman's business is strong. We are well positioned in the best categories and price points, and there's nothing better in the market than our talented people around the world.

    正是這種長期關注讓我有信心,隨著世界和我們的業務開始正常化,我們將繼續實現我們的長期增長算法,產生中個位數的有機頂線增長和高個位數-數字未來十年的有機營業收入增長。因此,無論您如何通過過去 3 個月、過去 3 個季度、過去 3 年或過去 3 年的鏡頭來看待我們的業務,我相信您都會得出相同的結論。 Brown-Forman 的業務很強勁。我們在最好的類別和價格點上處於有利地位,市場上沒有什麼比我們在世界各地的人才更好的了。

  • Now turning the focus back to our year-to-date fiscal '23 net sales results. We delivered high single-digit top line growth on a reported basis and double-digit top line growth on an organic basis as the reported results were impacted by foreign exchange headwinds. Organic net sales growth in the first 9 months was driven by continued strong growth for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey in our international markets in the Travel Retail channel by Woodford Reserve in the U.S. and a strong performance in RTDs driven by Jack Daniel's RTDs in Australia and Germany, along with New Mix in Mexico. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey continued to be the largest driver of our top line performance here to date, delivering 12% organic net sales growth, driven by strong consumer demand, higher pricing and the rebuilding of distributor inventories.

    現在將焦點轉回我們年初至今的 23 財年淨銷售業績。由於報告的結果受到外匯逆風的影響,我們在報告的基礎上實現了高單位數的收入增長,並在有機基礎上實現了兩位數的收入增長。前 9 個月的有機淨銷售額增長是由於 Jack Daniel's Tennessee 威士忌在美國 Woodford Reserve 的旅遊零售渠道的國際市場持續強勁增長以及 Jack Daniel's RTD 在澳大利亞和德國的強勁表現推動的,以及墨西哥的 New Mix。傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌仍然是我們迄今為止收入業績的最大推動力,在強勁的消費者需求、更高的定價和經銷商庫存的重建的推動下,實現了 12% 的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • Given the size of this brand and the fact that the brand delivered a 20% organic net sales increase in the year-ago period, this growth is particularly impressive. Consumer demand for Woodford Reserve also remained very strong, and we're significantly better positioned to meet this demand to supply constraints mainly related to glass have eased, and we increased our bottling capacity. This resulted in organic net sales growing 35% through the first 9 months of the year. There's been some exciting news in the past couple of months for Woodford Reserve, which I believe will continue to position the brand for future success. In January, we announced that Woodford Reserve entered into an agreement with Churchill Downs to renew Woodford as the presenting sponsor of the Kentucky Derby through 2027.

    考慮到該品牌的規模以及該品牌去年同期有機淨銷售額增長 20% 的事實,這一增長尤其令人印象深刻。消費者對 Woodford Reserve 的需求也依然非常強勁,我們明顯更有能力滿足這種需求,因為主要與玻璃相關的供應限制已經緩解,我們增加了裝瓶能力。這導致今年前 9 個月的有機淨銷售額增長了 35%。在過去的幾個月裡,伍德福德保護區傳來了一些令人振奮的消息,我相信這將繼續為品牌未來的成功定位。一月份,我們宣布伍德福德保護區與丘吉爾唐斯達成協議,將伍德福德作為肯塔基賽馬會的主贊助商續約到 2027 年。

  • The extended partnership also includes Old Forester as the official mint julep for the Kentucky Derby, along with Finlandia and Herradura. Woodford Reserve also recently named Elizabeth McCall as Master Distiller, the third in the brand's 26-year history and the first female Master Distiller. She is the second generation of her family to work in the spirits industry following in our mother's footsteps.

    擴大的合作夥伴關係還包括 Old Forester 作為肯塔基賽馬的官方薄荷酒,以及 Finlandia 和 Herradura。 Woodford Reserve 最近還任命 Elizabeth McCall 為釀酒大師,這是該品牌 26 年曆史上的第三位,也是第一位女性釀酒大師。她是她家族的第二代人,跟隨我們母親的腳步在烈酒行業工作。

  • Elizabeth builds on the legacy crafted by Chris Morris, who is taking on a Master Distiller, Emeritus role and has been instrumental in the growth of Woodford over the past 25 years. We're very thankful for Chris and Elizabeth and all they are doing to build a very promising future for Woodford Reserve. RTDs remain the third largest contributor to overall company growth, driven by the consumer trends of convenience and flavor. Jack Daniel's RTDs grew organic net sales 10% and New Mix delivered 41% organic net sales growth.

    伊麗莎白建立在克里斯·莫里斯 (Chris Morris) 精心打造的遺產之上,克里斯·莫里斯 (Chris Morris) 擔任榮譽退休釀酒師一職,並在過去 25 年中為伍德福德的發展做出了重要貢獻。我們非常感謝 Chris 和 Elizabeth,感謝他們為 Woodford Reserve 建立一個充滿希望的未來所做的一切。在方便和口味的消費趨勢的推動下,RTD 仍然是公司整體增長的第三大貢獻者。 Jack Daniel's RTDs 的有機淨銷售額增長了 10%,New Mix 實現了 41% 的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • While on the topic of RTDs, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at one of the oldest and one of the newest brands in our RTD portfolio. First, Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails which we launched in the early 1990s. 2 years ago on this call, we announced that we are partnering with Pabst Brewing Company for the supply, sales and distribution of Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails within the United States. We believe that the partnership would provide tremendous growth potential for the brand with greater access to production and variety pack capabilities, along with Pabst distribution network which would provide more efficient access to new distribution channels.

    在談到 RTD 主題時,我認為看看我們 RTD 產品組合中最古老和最新品牌之一會很有趣。首先是我們在 1990 年代初期推出的 Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails。 2 年前,在這次電話會議上,我們宣布與 Pabst Brewing Company 合作,在美國供應、銷售和分銷 Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails。我們相信,該合作夥伴關係將為該品牌提供巨大的增長潛力,使其能夠獲得更多的生產和品種包裝能力,以及 Pabst 分銷網絡,從而更有效地進入新的分銷渠道。

  • I'm pleased to say that our beliefs were correct. Based on Nielsen at the beginning of February, Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails was the second fastest-growing flavored malt beverage in the United States, continuing to gain share and grow distribution. Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails is now a top 10 flavored malt beverage brand, and I want to thank both the Brown-Forman and Pabst teams for significantly accelerating the growth of this brand.

    我很高興地說我們的信念是正確的。根據 Nielsen 在 2 月初的數據,Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails 是美國增長第二快的風味麥芽飲料,繼續擴大份額並擴大分銷。 Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails 現在是排名前 10 的風味麥芽飲料品牌,我要感謝 Brown-Forman 和 Pabst 團隊大大加快了這個品牌的發展。

  • I also have immense gratitude for the teams at Brown-Forman and the Coca-Cola Company, who are working on our newest RTD, and that is, of course, Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola. While we only have a couple of months of data from the distributors since the November launch in Cancun, Mexico, the early results are certainly very positive. They shared that the 9-liter case volume of the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD significantly exceeded the volume of the Jack Dan's and cola RTD in the equivalent 2-month period a year ago. They reached the distribution target within days of launch, showing the excitement and enthusiasm from the retailers and the consumer repurchase rate is encouraging. The experiences and learnings from Cancun has helped to set the stage for a successful national launch across Mexico, which began in early February.

    我也非常感謝 Brown-Forman 和可口可樂公司的團隊,他們正在研究我們最新的 RTD,當然,也就是 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂。自 11 月在墨西哥坎昆推出以來,我們只有幾個月的分銷商數據,但早期結果肯定非常積極。他們分享說,Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD 的 9 升箱容量大大超過了一年前同等 2 個月期間的 Jack Dan's 和可樂 RTD 的容量。他們在發布後的幾天內就達到了分銷目標,顯示了零售商的興奮和熱情,消費者的回購率令人鼓舞。坎昆的經驗和教訓為 2 月初開始的墨西哥全國成功啟動奠定了基礎。

  • These learnings will also be shared with other markets that are launching soon, including the United States, a number of European markets as well as Japan. For these initial markets, cans are now rolling off the production lines and will be on retailer shelves in cold boxes in late March and early April. We're excited not only about the potential growth of this product, but also believe as we always have with RTDs that the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD will have a positive impact on the [full strength] family of brands.

    這些經驗還將與即將推出的其他市場分享,包括美國、一些歐洲市場以及日本。對於這些最初的市場,罐頭現在正在從生產線上滾下來,並將於 3 月下旬和 4 月初放在冷藏箱中的零售商貨架上。我們不僅對這種產品的潛在增長感到興奮,而且相信,正如我們對 RTD 的一貫看法,Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD 將對[全力]品牌家族產生積極影響。

  • RTDs serve as consumer recruitment vehicle, bringing new consumers of legal drinking age into the Jack Daniel's family as well as a marketing vehicle visibly showcasing the trademark and what we often call cans and hands. The Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD launches will be supported by a new global advertising campaign, jointly funded by Brown-Forman and the Coca-Cola Company, which introduces the product and showcases the incredible attitude of these 2 iconic trademarks coming together in a single can.

    RTD 充當消費者招募工具,將達到法定飲酒年齡的新消費者帶入 Jack Daniel's 家族,同時也是一種營銷工具,可以明顯地展示商標以及我們常說的罐頭和手。 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD 的推出將得到一項新的全球廣告活動的支持,該活動由 Brown-Forman 和可口可樂公司共同資助,該活動介紹了產品並展示了這兩個標誌性商標結合在一起的令人難以置信的態度單罐

  • We'll continue the product launch in additional European, Asian, African and Latin American markets throughout the calendar year 2023, and I look forward to sharing more in the upcoming quarters. While we're on the topic of product launches, I want to briefly provide an update on Jack Daniel's Bonded. Over the past 5 years, we've been working purposely to premiumize the Jack Daniel's family brands and elevate our whiskey credentials initially laying the foundation with specialty launches such as Jack Daniel's Single Barrel special release heritage barrel and Jack Daniel's 10-year-old Tennessee Whiskey.

    我們將在整個 2023 年繼續在歐洲、亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的其他市場推出產品,我期待在接下來的幾個季度分享更多信息。當我們討論產品發布的話題時,我想簡要介紹一下 Jack Daniel's Bonded 的最新情況。在過去的 5 年裡,我們一直致力於提升 Jack Daniel's 家族品牌的品質並提升我們的威士忌資質,最初為 Jack Daniel's Single Barrel 特別發布的傳統酒桶和 Jack Daniel's 10 年田納西威士忌等特色產品奠定了基礎威士忌酒。

  • Earlier this fiscal year, we introduced the first Jack Daniel's super-premium permanent line extensions in over 25 years with Jack Daniel's Bonded Tennessee whiskey and Jack Daniel's Triple mash whiskey. In just a few months, the new Bonded series received powerful and impactful claim from whiskey critics across the globe, including Jack Daniel's Bonded being named the 2022 Whiskey of the Year by Whiskey Advocate, the most coveted global accolade in the whiskey industry.

    本財年早些時候,我們推出了 Jack Daniel 超過 25 年來的首個超優質永久產品線延伸產品,包括 Jack Daniel's Bonded Tennessee 威士忌和 Jack Daniel's Triple mash 威士忌。在短短幾個月內,新的保稅系列獲得了全球威士忌評論家的有力和有影響力的評價,其中包括傑克丹尼的保稅酒被威士忌倡導者評為 2022 年度威士忌,這是威士忌行業最令人垂涎的全球榮譽。

  • Like the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTDs, these new whiskeys give both long-term friends of Jack Daniel's and new friends, the opportunity to explore and discover within the Jack Daniel's family. While there is excitement and momentum in the whiskey and RTD categories, tequila remains an attractive and fast-growing category within total distilled spirits.

    與傑克丹尼和可口可樂 RTD 一樣,這些新威士忌為傑克丹尼的老朋友和新朋友提供了在傑克丹尼家族中探索和發現的機會。雖然威士忌和 RTD 類別令人興奮和勢頭強勁,但龍舌蘭酒在全蒸餾酒中仍然是一個有吸引力且增長迅速的類別。

  • As we shared last quarter, after experiencing significant supply chain disruption to the first 3 months of fiscal '23, glass supply for Herradura has continued to increase. We're now better positioned to meet consumer demand and Herradura delivered a 9% increase in organic net sales in the first 9 months of fiscal '23. We're also seeing takeaway growth accelerate in the U.S. as distributor inventories are being rebuilt. And organic net sales for el Jimador increased 19%, driven by consumer demand and pricing growth, both in the U.S. and in Mexico.

    正如我們在上個季度分享的那樣,在 23 財年的前 3 個月經歷了嚴重的供應鏈中斷之後,Herradura 的玻璃供應量繼續增加。我們現在可以更好地滿足消費者需求,Herradura 在 23 財年的前 9 個月實現有機淨銷售額增長 9%。我們還看到,隨著分銷商庫存的重建,美國的外賣增長正在加速。在美國和墨西哥的消費者需求和定價增長的推動下,el Jimador 的有機淨銷售額增長了 19%。

  • In November, we launched Herradura Legend, a unique Añejo tequila that has matured and heavily charred, new American White Oak barrels, a process that's unique in the category and one that leverages our barrel knowledge and expertise. As premiumization continues in the category, Legend is a permanent member of the Herradura portfolio that enables us to participate in the prestige price point segment.

    11 月,我們推出了 Herradura Legend,這是一款獨特的 Añejo 龍舌蘭酒,經過熟化和嚴重燒焦,使用全新的美國白橡木桶,這一工藝在同類產品中獨一無二,並且利用了我們的橡木桶知識和專業知識。隨著該品類繼續高端化,Legend 成為 Herradura 產品組合的永久成員,這使我們能夠參與高端價位細分市場。

  • On the topic of pricing, 2 years ago, we introduced our long-term pricing strategy for our portfolio of brands, which aims to increase prices consistently year after year and to grow net sales through a combination of both volume and value. Our organic net sales growth benefited from 3 points of favorable price mix in the first 9 months of fiscal '23. This was driven by higher prices across much of our portfolio and was led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. Based on the latest Nielsen data Brown-Forman's pricing growth of nearly 3% is outpacing total distilled spirits of just over 2%. Our revenue growth management initiatives, which includes identifying pricing opportunities, not just in the U.S., but in every market, are a key part of our comprehensive focus on top line growth.

    在定價方面,2 年前,我們為我們的品牌組合引入了長期定價策略,旨在年復一年地持續提高價格,並通過數量和價值的結合來增加淨銷售額。我們的有機淨銷售額增長得益於 23 財年前 9 個月的 3 個優惠價格組合。這是由我們大部分產品組合的價格上漲推動的,其中 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 價格居首。根據 Nielsen 的最新數據,Brown-Forman 近 3% 的價格增長超過了 2% 多一點的總蒸餾酒價格增長。我們的收入增長管理計劃,包括確定定價機會,不僅在美國,而且在每個市場,都是我們全面關注收入增長的關鍵部分。

  • In summary, despite the volatility and uncertainty, disruptions and challenges, Brown-Forman continues to deliver against our long-term ambitions. Our long-term focus has allowed us to execute on our strategic priorities and invest in the momentum of our brands. This has produced strong organic results in the first 9 months of the fiscal year as well as over the last 3 years. So in closing, on this International Women's Day, I would like to acknowledge the women of Brown-Forman and thank them along with all of our very talented Brown-Forman employees around the globe for their commitment to our strategic priorities and our company values and their continued focus on delivering sustainable and consistent long-term growth day after day, year after year, generation after generation.

    總而言之,儘管存在波動和不確定性、中斷和挑戰,但 Brown-Forman 繼續實現我們的長期目標。我們的長期關注使我們能夠執行我們的戰略重點並投資於我們品牌的發展勢頭。這在本財年的前 9 個月以及過去 3 年中產生了強勁的有機結果。因此,最後,值此國際婦女節之際,我要感謝 Brown-Forman 的女性,並感謝她們以及我們全球所有非常有才華的 Brown-Forman 員工,感謝她們對我們的戰略重點和公司價值觀的承諾,以及他們日復一日、年復一年、一代又一代地繼續專注於實現可持續和一致的長期增長。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne and she'll provide more details on our year-to-date results as well as our outlook for the remainder of fiscal '23.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給 Leanne,她會提供更多關於我們今年迄今為止的結果的細節,以及我們對 23 財年剩餘時間的展望。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson reviewed the top line drivers from a portfolio perspective, for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, I will provide a few additional details on the top line results as well as other items that drove our business results and our outlook for the fiscal year. First, as Lawson mentioned, for the 9 months of fiscal 2023, organic net sales increased 12% compared to the same period last year.

    謝謝勞森,大家早上好。由於 Lawson 從投資組合的角度審查了頂線驅動因素,對於 2023 財年的前 9 個月,我將提供一些關於頂線結果的更多詳細信息,以及推動我們的業務結果和本財年展望的其他項目.首先,正如勞森所提到的,在 2023 財年的 9 個月中,有機淨銷售額與去年同期相比增長了 12%。

  • The growth was driven by a 9% increase in volumes, particularly for New Mix, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's RTDs. We also gained 3% from price mix, reflecting higher prices across much of our portfolio, led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. From a geographic perspective, for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, strong results were broad-based with organic net sales growth in each geographic cluster compared to the same period a year ago. Collectively, our emerging international markets continued to deliver very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, increasing 26%. This growth was led by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, particularly in [Turkey] and Brazil, driven by improved product availability and supply chain disruption ease as well as increased pricing.

    銷量增長 9% 推動了這一增長,尤其是 New Mix、Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 和 Jack Daniel's RTDs。我們還從價格組合中獲得了 3% 的收益,反映出我們大部分投資組合的價格上漲,其中以 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 為首。從地域角度來看,2023 財年的前 9 個月,強勁的業績基礎廣泛,與去年同期相比,每個地域集群的有機淨銷售額均有增長。總的來說,我們的新興國際市場繼續實現非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長,增長了 26%。這種增長是由傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌引領的,特別是在[土耳其]和巴西,這是由於產品可用性的提高和供應鏈中斷的緩解以及價格上漲的推動。

  • RTDs also contributed to growth with New Mix and Jack Daniel's RTDs growing strong double digits in Mexico, where we are gaining share in a growing category and increasing price. In addition, Jack Daniel's RTDs were launched in Brazil earlier this year and are off to a very strong start. This impressive growth includes the impact of the year-over-year declines in Russia as we suspended our commercial operations almost exactly 1 year ago in March of 2022.

    RTDs 也為 New Mix 和 Jack Daniel's RTDs 在墨西哥的增長做出了強勁的兩位數增長,我們在不斷增長的類別和價格上漲中獲得了份額。此外,Jack Daniel 的 RTD 今年早些時候在巴西推出,開局良好。這一令人印象深刻的增長包括俄羅斯同比下降的影響,因為我們幾乎恰好在一年前的 2022 年 3 月暫停了我們的商業運營。

  • Prior to this suspension, this market represented approximately 2% of our total reported net sales. Our developed international markets collectively delivered strong organic net sales growth, up 13% for the first 9 months. We continue to closely monitor the inflationary impact on consumer confidence and still have not observed signs of down trading. In fact, we have continued to increase price through our revenue growth management strategies as spirits remain an affordable luxury for consumers.

    在此暫停之前,該市場約占我們報告的總淨銷售額的 2%。我們發達的國際市場共同實現了強勁的有機淨銷售額增長,前 9 個月增長了 13%。我們將繼續密切關注通脹對消費者信心的影響,但仍未觀察到下跌交易的跡象。事實上,我們通過收入增長管理戰略繼續提高價格,因為烈酒仍然是消費者負擔得起的奢侈品。

  • Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey was the largest contributor to growth in these markets, driven by Germany, where Jack is gaining share within the whiskey category; Japan, which is benefiting from strong consumer demand with growth in both the on- and off-trade; Korea, as the consumer is continuing to shift to international whiskey brands. And Belgium, as you'll recall, Belgium transitioned to own distribution at the beginning of calendar 2022, we believe that own distribution transition can fuel share growth, strengthen our portfolio, unlock future potential and enable us to capture more of the value chain.

    在德國的推動下,傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌是這些市場增長的最大貢獻者,傑克丹尼在威士忌類別中的份額正在增加;日本受益於強勁的消費需求以及場內和場外貿易的增長;韓國,隨著消費者繼續轉向國際威士忌品牌。而比利時,正如您所記得的那樣,比利時在 2022 日曆年初過渡到自己的分銷,我們相信自己的分銷轉型可以推動份額增長,加強我們的投資組合,釋放未來潛力並使我們能夠獲得更多的價值鏈。

  • We are seeing that growth in Belgium as Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey recently became the #1 whiskey brand in Belgium during the holiday season, achieving record market share in the month of December.

    我們看到比利時的增長,因為 Jack Daniel 的田納西威士忌最近在節日期間成為比利時排名第一的威士忌品牌,在 12 月份取得了創紀錄的市場份額。

  • Australia and Germany continued to drive the growth of Jack Daniel's RTDs, leading to double-digit organic net sales growth, which represented the next largest contributor to growth. The RTD category is growing in these large important markets, and we are gaining share. Our emerging brands team in Europe continues to drive the growth of brands such as el Jimador, Woodford Reserve, Gentleman Jack and GlenDronach. Each brand delivered double-digit organic net sales growth, reflecting our strategic priority of increasing focus on our premium and super-premium portfolio.

    澳大利亞和德國繼續推動 Jack Daniel's RTD 的增長,導致兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長,這是第二大增長貢獻者。 RTD 類別在這些重要的大型市場中正在增長,我們正在獲得份額。我們在歐洲的新興品牌團隊繼續推動 el Jimador、Woodford Reserve、Gentleman Jack 和 GlenDronach 等品牌的發展。每個品牌都實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長,反映了我們更加關注高端和超高端產品組合的戰略重點。

  • Of course, Diplomático and Gin Mare are just getting started. We believe they will soon be a meaningful contributor to this emerging brands business. The U.S. business is beginning to normalize and delivered 4% organic net sales growth. As we have shared with you in the previous 3 quarters, the seasonality of our fiscal 2023 results have been impacted by the abnormal seasonality of the fiscal 2022 shipments due to supply chain disruptions. In the first half of fiscal 2022, distributor inventories did not increase ahead of the holiday season as is typical, and we experienced stronger shipments in the second half of fiscal 2022 as supply chain challenges began to ease.

    當然,Diplomático 和 Gin Mare 才剛剛起步。我們相信他們將很快成為這一新興品牌業務的重要貢獻者。美國業務開始正常化並實現了 4% 的有機淨銷售額增長。正如我們在前 3 個季度與您分享的那樣,我們 2023 財年業績的季節性受到供應鏈中斷導致的 2022 財年出貨量異常季節性的影響。在 2022 財年上半年,分銷商庫存沒有像往常那樣在假期前增加,隨著供應鏈挑戰開始緩解,我們在 2022 財年下半年經歷了更強勁的出貨量。

  • As expected in the first half of 2023, distributor inventories continued to return to more normalized levels, which benefited the U.S. net sales growth rate by 7 points, as we are now beginning to lap the increase in shipments related to the rebuilding of our inventory position in the prior-year period, particularly for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, we estimate the net change in distributor inventories reduced the net sales growth rate by 1 point for the first 9 months of the fiscal year. Woodford Reserve remained the largest contributor to organic net sales growth, driven by strong consumer demand and an increase in distributor inventories as glass supply and capacity constraints continue to ease.

    正如預期的那樣,2023 年上半年,經銷商庫存繼續恢復到更正常的水平,這使美國淨銷售額增長率提高了 7 個百分點,因為我們現在開始回補與重建庫存狀況相關的出貨量增長在去年同期,特別是傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌,我們估計分銷商庫存的淨變化使本財年前 9 個月的淨銷售額增長率降低了 1 個百分點。 Woodford Reserve 仍然是有機淨銷售額增長的最大貢獻者,其驅動因素是強勁的消費者需求以及隨著玻璃供應和產能限制繼續緩解而經銷商庫存增加。

  • Organic net sales also benefited from higher prices across the portfolio, led by the Jack Daniel's family of brands, though partially offset by lower volumes of Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey as the brand lapped a strong prior year comparison. As you will recall, at this time last year, we shared that due to supply chain constraints, particularly for glass, we prioritize Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. This prioritization was reflected in the year-ago results as we met the strong consumer demand for the brand, particularly in the on-premise and focused on rebuilding inventory levels across the supply chain.

    有機淨銷售額也受益於以傑克丹尼品牌家族為首的整個產品組合的價格上漲,但部分被傑克丹尼田納西威士忌銷量下降所抵消,因為該品牌與去年相比表現強勁。你會記得,去年的這個時候,我們分享了由於供應鏈的限制,特別是玻璃的限制,我們優先考慮傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌。這種優先順序反映在一年前的結果中,因為我們滿足了消費者對該品牌的強烈需求,尤其是在本地,並專注於重建整個供應鏈的庫存水平。

  • Korbel California Champagne is benefiting from higher pricing, though that benefit is being more than offset by lower volume. In the U.S., the gap between Nielsen takeaway and our actual results have narrowed considerably as we lap many of the factors that created the disconnect, such as the shift to the on-premise with its reopening along with the brand and market prioritization impacts from the supply-chain challenges.

    Korbel California Champagne 正受益於較高的定價,儘管這種好處被銷量下降所抵消。在美國,尼爾森外賣與我們的實際結果之間的差距已經大大縮小,因為我們考慮了許多造成這種脫節的因素,例如隨著重新開放而轉向內部部署以及品牌和市場優先次序的影響供應鏈挑戰。

  • Overall takeaway trends improved during the quarter as the industry began to normalize with total distilled spirits value growth in the mid-single digits, as we lap the impact of the supply-chain constraints that previously suppressed our performance, particularly for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Gentleman Jack and the Jack Daniel's Tennessee flavors, our takeaway performance is accelerating, and Brown-Forman has closed the gap with total distilled spirits for the first time in 2 years.

    本季度整體外賣趨勢有所改善,因為行業開始正常化,蒸餾酒總價值以中等個位數增長,因為我們消除了供應鏈限制的影響,這些限制以前抑制了我們的業績,特別是傑克丹尼爾的田納西威士忌, Gentleman Jack 和Jack Daniel's Tennessee 口味,我們的外賣業績正在加速,Brown-Forman 兩年來首次縮小了與全蒸餾酒的差距。

  • We continue to work to rebuild finished goods inventory levels across the 3-tiered system and believe that distributor inventory levels are starting to normalize. We are continuing to rebuild some brands and sizes but shipments and depletions are now largely in balance across our full-strength portfolio.

    我們繼續努力重建整個 3 層系統的成品庫存水平,並相信分銷商庫存水平開始正常化。我們正在繼續重建一些品牌和尺寸,但出貨量和消耗量現在在我們的全強度產品組合中基本保持平衡。

  • And finally, the Travel Retail channel continued its strong rebound as travel continued to rebound with the return of international airline travel and the cruise industry. Organic net sales grew 52%, led by higher volumes across much of our portfolio and our business has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels.

    最後,隨著國際航空旅行和郵輪業的回歸,旅遊業繼續反彈,旅遊零售渠道繼續強勁反彈。有機淨銷售額增長了 52%,這得益於我們大部分產品組合的銷量增加,我們的業務幾乎恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。

  • Now turning to gross profit. In the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, our reported gross profit increased 5% or 11% on an organic basis. For gross margin, headwinds more than offset our tailwinds, resulting in 170 basis points of contraction compared to the same period last year. Favorable price mix and the removal of the European Union and United Kingdom tariffs on American whiskey were more than offset by higher costs due to the impact of inflation on our input costs and supply-chain disruptions, largely related to global logistics constraints as well as the negative effect of foreign exchange.

    現在轉向毛利。在 2023 財年的前 9 個月,我們報告的毛利潤有機增長了 5% 或 11%。對於毛利率,逆風抵消了我們的順風,導致與去年同期相比收縮 170 個基點。由於通貨膨脹對我們的投入成本和供應鏈中斷的影響,有利的價格組合以及歐盟和英國對美國威士忌的關稅取消被更高的成本所抵消,這主要與全球物流限制以及外彙的負面影響。

  • Moving on to our operating expenses. Compared to the same prior year 9-month period, organic advertising expenses grew at a significantly higher rate than our top line growth, largely due to the timing of our increased marketing investment for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Woodford Reserve, the launch of Jack Daniel's Bonded and Herradura in the United States.

    繼續我們的運營費用。與去年同期的 9 個月相比,有機廣告費用的增長速度明顯高於我們的收入增長,這主要是由於我們增加了對傑克丹尼田納西威士忌、伍德福德儲備、傑克丹尼威士忌的營銷投資時機美國的邦德和埃拉杜拉。

  • Organic SG&A investment increased double digits, driven primarily by higher compensation-related expenses and the investment behind our people as we return to in-person events and activities in support of our collaborative culture and relationship-based industry.

    有機 SG&A 投資增長了兩位數,這主要是由於與薪酬相關的費用增加,以及在我們回歸面對面的活動和活動以支持我們的協作文化和基於關係的行業時對我們員工的投資。

  • Our reported operating expenses were impacted by 2 items: a noncash impairment charge for the Finlandia brand name, largely due to macroeconomic conditions, including rising interest rates and increasing costs and certain post-closing costs and expenses in connection with the acquisition of Diplomático, largely driven by costs related to the termination of existing distribution contracts as we integrate the brands into our distribution partners.

    我們報告的運營費用受到 2 個項目的影響:Finlandia 品牌的非現金減值費用,主要是由於宏觀經濟狀況,包括利率上升和成本增加以及與收購 Diplomático 相關的某些交易後成本和費用,主要是當我們將品牌整合到我們的分銷合作夥伴中時,與終止現有分銷合同相關的成本推動了這一增長。

  • In total, reported operating income decreased 13% and organic operating income grew 9% in the first 9 months of fiscal 2023.

    總體而言,在 2023 財年的前 9 個月,報告的營業收入下降了 13%,有機營業收入增長了 9%。

  • These results, combined with a pension settlement charge resulted in a diluted EPS decrease of 16% to $1.20 per share. Lastly, to our fiscal 2023 outlook, our performance for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023 was strong with high single-digit reported and double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by strong consumer demand, higher pricing and the rebuilding of distributor inventories.

    這些結果與養老金結算費用相結合,導致攤薄每股收益下降 16% 至 1.20 美元。最後,關於我們的 2023 財年展望,我們在 2023 財年的前 9 個月表現強勁,在強勁的消費者需求、更高的定價和經銷商庫存重建的推動下,實現了高單位數和兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • And while there were a number of items in the third quarter that negatively impacted our reported operating income results for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, we delivered high single-digit organic operating income growth. As trends begin to normalize globally, we remain confident in the broad-based growth of our U.S. and international markets, along with the travel retail channel. While the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment remains volatile and uncertain, we believe our business will remain resilient, reflecting strong consumer demand, the strength of our portfolio of brands, the continued execution of our pricing strategy and the return of inventory to more normalized levels.

    儘管第三季度有許多項目對我們報告的 2023 財年前 9 個月的營業收入結果產生了負面影響,但我們實現了高個位數的有機營業收入增長。隨著全球趨勢開始正常化,我們對美國和國際市場以及旅遊零售渠道的廣泛增長充滿信心。雖然全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境仍然動盪和不確定,但我們相信我們的業務將保持彈性,反映出強勁的消費者需求、我們品牌組合的實力、我們定價策略的持續執行以及庫存恢復到更正常的水平。

  • For the full year, the effect of the estimated net change in distributor inventories could range from no impact to a moderate unfavorable impact on our results as we lap the significant inventory rebuilding during the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

    對於全年,隨著我們在 2022 財年第四季度完成重大庫存重建,分銷商庫存的估計淨變化對我們的業績的影響可能從沒有影響到適度不利影響。

  • Our guidance assumes no impact from an estimated net change in distributor inventories for the full year, and we now expect organic net sales growth in the range of 8% to 10%. As it relates to our fiscal 2023 cost, the inflationary environment increased input costs ahead of our expectations and supply chain disruptions, particularly transportation, logistics, and freight, while easing remain challenging. Additionally, we have noted the impact of foreign exchange on our reported results.

    我們的指引假設全年經銷商庫存的估計淨變化沒有影響,我們現在預計有機淨銷售額增長 8% 至 10%。由於與我們 2023 財年的成本相關,通貨膨脹環境增加了投入成本,超出了我們的預期,供應鏈中斷,尤其是運輸、物流和貨運,而寬鬆政策仍然具有挑戰性。此外,我們注意到外匯對我們報告結果的影響。

  • While the U.S. dollar has weakened from its peak in September, the U.S. dollar remained strong against many major currencies, most notably against the euro, Turkish lira, Pound Sterling and Polish zloty. As we continue to navigate these challenges and work to limit their impact, we expect the headwinds of inflation, supply chain disruption costs and foreign exchange to impact our full year results.

    儘管美元已從 9 月份的高位回落,但美元兌許多主要貨幣仍然堅挺,尤其是兌歐元、土耳其里拉、英鎊和波蘭茲羅提。隨著我們繼續應對這些挑戰並努力限制其影響,我們預計通貨膨脹、供應鏈中斷成本和外彙的不利因素將影響我們的全年業績。

  • Partially offsetting these headwinds, we continue to expect pricing and the removal of the EU and U.K. tariffs on American whiskey to remain tailwinds for the full year. Based on these headwinds and tailwinds, we continue to expect full year reported gross margin to be consistent with the first half of fiscal 2023. We are reaffirming our expectations for operating expenses as we believe that investments in our brands and our people will drive strong long-term top and bottom line growth. As a reminder, since the time we were burdened with the EU and U.K. tariffs, we have long been committed to reinvesting a portion of the tariff relief back behind our brands once removed, which we were finally able to act upon in fiscal 2023, driving our brand investment at a rate above our top line growth, and we will also invest in our people to support our business needs in a more normalized environment.

    為了部分抵消這些不利因素,我們繼續預計定價以及歐盟和英國取消對美國威士忌的關稅將在全年保持利好因素。基於這些逆風和順風,我們繼續預計全年報告的毛利率將與 2023 財年上半年保持一致。我們重申對運營費用的預期,因為我們相信對我們品牌和員工的投資將推動長期強勁增長-長期頂線和底線增長。提醒一下,自從我們背負歐盟和英國關稅以來,我們一直致力於在取消後將部分關稅減免重新投資於我們的品牌,我們終於能夠在 2023 財年採取行動,推動我們的品牌投資速度高於我們的收入增長,我們還將投資於我們的員工,以支持我們在更規範的環境中的業務需求。

  • Based on the above expectations and assuming no full year impact from the estimated net change in distributor inventories, we continue to anticipate high single-digit organic operating income growth.

    基於上述預期,並假設經銷商庫存的估計淨變化對全年沒有影響,我們繼續預計有機營業收入將實現高個位數增長。

  • We continue to expect our fiscal 2023 effective tax rate to be in the range of approximately 22% to 23%, and our capital expenditures are still planned to be in the range of $190 million to $210 million. In summary, we are pleased and proud of the strong results delivered for the first 9 months of fiscal 2023, with double-digit organic net sales growth that was broad-based across our portfolio and geographies.

    我們繼續預計我們 2023 財年的有效稅率將在大約 22% 至 23% 的範圍內,我們的資本支出仍計劃在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元的範圍內。總而言之,我們對 2023 財年前 9 個月取得的強勁業績感到高興和自豪,我們的產品組合和地區都實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • And as expected, the seasonality of our fiscal 2023 results are being impacted by the abnormal seasonality of the fiscal 2022 shipments related to the supply chain disruptions. As trends are normalizing, we believe our business will remain resilient, reflecting the strength of our portfolio of brands and our talented people. We also believe our long-term perspective enables us to navigate the changes of our world and to deliver sustainable and consistent long-term performance. This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

    正如預期的那樣,我們 2023 財年業績的季節性受到與供應鏈中斷相關的 2022 財年出貨量異常季節性的影響。隨著趨勢正常化,我們相信我們的業務將保持彈性,反映出我們品牌組合和人才的實力。我們還相信,我們的長遠眼光使我們能夠駕馭世界的變化,並提供可持續和一致的長期績效。我們準備好的發言到此結束。請打開問題熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Vivien Azer of Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 Vivien Azer。

  • Vivien Nicole Azer - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Vivien Nicole Azer - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • So I wanted to follow up on the commentary around the Jack and Coke strong start internationally. Is it possible to quantify that at all in terms of the contribution to country-level growth and/or the impact that it had on the broader Jack franchise? And then as a follow-up to that, can we talk a little bit about the expected investment spending for the U.S. launch as well?

    所以我想跟進有關傑克和可口可樂在國際上強勢開局的評論。是否有可能根據對國家層面增長的貢獻和/或它對更廣泛的傑克特許經營權的影響來量化這一點?然後作為後續行動,我們能否也談談美國發射的預期投資支出?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Vivien. A couple of things. One, as I think you know, the launch was really in Cancun over the last few months. It was not even across the entire country of Mexico. And so, the impact on this fiscal year is negligible, even probably within the country of Mexico would be negligible. So -- but look, I mean, I think in Leanne's -- on some of the comments that she made, it's off to a good start. We're pleased with the distribution. We're pleased with the consumer repurchase rates and everything. So everything is going sort of as planned or even maybe a little bit better than planned, but it's tough to extrapolate or see that impacting fiscal '23. Now fiscal '24, I mean, we haven't given any guidance yet on that, and we'll probably do that after -- in the next quarter when we start talking a lot more about fiscal '24.

    是的,薇薇安。幾件事。第一,正如我想你知道的那樣,發射實際上是過去幾個月在坎昆舉行的。它甚至沒有遍及整個墨西哥。因此,對本財政年度的影響可以忽略不計,甚至可能在墨西哥國內也可以忽略不計。所以 - 但是看,我的意思是,我認為 Leanne 的 - 在她發表的一些評論中,這是一個良好的開端。我們對分配感到滿意。我們對消費者的回購率和一切都很滿意。所以一切都按計劃進行,甚至可能比計劃好一點,但很難推斷或看到這會影響 23 財年。現在是 24 財年,我的意思是,我們還沒有就此給出任何指導,我們可能會在下個季度開始更多地討論 24 財年時這樣做。

  • But I think it is worth pointing out a little bit about how this is going to work just so that you all understand how the model works. And I'll just use a couple of examples. We can use Mexico as probably a good starting point. The Coca-Cola Company has taken the lead and the business model is actually similar to how they work with their bottlers around the world. But instead of 2 players, there's 3 as we are part of that too. So the revenues, the costs, the brand expense, all of that will be reflected on the Coca-Cola Company's P&L, not on Brown-Forman's, we will be selling whiskey -- bulk whiskey, almost the equivalent of concentrate in their terms. And so that's the revenue impact on us, but you're not going to see the full P&L impact in a country like Mexico. Turning to the U.S. If you look at the U.S., and it's going to be also similar for Germany and Australia, which are our 2 really big RTD markets, we're going to handle the manufacturing and the distribution.

    但我認為有必要指出一點它是如何工作的,這樣你們都能理解這個模型是如何工作的。我將僅舉幾個例子。我們可以將墨西哥作為一個很好的起點。可口可樂公司走在了前列,其商業模式實際上與他們與世界各地的裝瓶商合作的方式相似。但不是 2 名球員,而是 3 名球員,因為我們也是其中的一部分。因此,收入、成本、品牌費用,所有這些都將反映在可口可樂公司的損益表上,而不是在 Brown-Forman 的損益表上,我們將銷售威士忌——散裝威士忌,幾乎等同於濃縮威士忌。這就是對我們的收入影響,但你不會在墨西哥這樣的國家看到完整的損益影響。轉向美國如果你看看美國,德國和澳大利亞也將是類似的,這是我們兩個非常大的 RTD 市場,我們將處理製造和分銷。

  • And so U.S., Australia, Germany, you will see the revenues, the brand expense, the costs all in our P&L. So it's difficult when you try to consolidate the 2 to figure out how is that all total up because it really is going to depend on the balance of sales between all the different markets around the world. But 1 way or the other, we still feel pretty good about it. And we'll talk more about that, as I say, in the next quarter.

    所以美國、澳大利亞、德國,你會在我們的損益表中看到收入、品牌費用和成本。因此,當您嘗試合併 2 時很難弄清楚這一切是如何加起來的,因為這真的取決於全球所有不同市場之間的銷售平衡。但是不管怎樣,我們仍然感覺很好。正如我所說,我們將在下個季度更多地討論這一點。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then from an investment perspective, to answer the second part of your question, this is about, as often mentioned, you jointly being funded between Brown-Forman and the Coca-Cola Company and that joint advertising will also have a halo effect over the entire Jack Daniel's family of brands kind of as we think amplifying the trademark.

    然後從投資的角度,回答你問題的第二部分,就是經常提到的,你是Brown-Forman和可口可樂公司共同出資的,聯合廣告也會對你產生光環效應整個 Jack Daniel 品牌系列就像我們認為的那樣擴大了商標。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Andrea Teixeira of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

  • Drew Nolan Levine - Analyst

    Drew Nolan Levine - Analyst

  • This is Drew Levine on for Andrea. So I wanted to ask on the gross margins. It doesn't seem like the cost headwinds really abated much at all. Although I think last quarter, there was a pretty sizable headwind due to mitigation efforts to get the product on shelf in addition to inflation, obviously. So could you talk about where you're seeing continued pressure on that cost line and how you see it evolving over the coming quarters? Because I would think most of those mitigation efforts were in the past, but maybe it doesn't appear. So any color there would be helpful.

    這是安德里亞的德魯萊文。所以我想問一下毛利率。成本逆風似乎並沒有真正減輕多少。儘管我認為上個季度,除了通貨膨脹之外,由於為使產品上架而採取的緩解措施,顯然存在相當大的逆風。那麼,您能否談談您在哪裡看到該成本線持續面臨壓力,以及您如何看待它在未來幾個季度的演變?因為我認為大多數緩解措施都是過去的事,但也許不會出現。所以那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. And I'll take that in 2 parts. So where we are kind of year-to-date and then stepping back from our full year outlook. First, I think it's important that you'll recall our full year guidance, which is consistent in line with our first half of 2023. So it does imply improvement in the fourth quarter. For us, our normal seasonality of the fourth quarter generally has a positive impact on gross margin and we will have a benefit in lapping the foreign exchange impact that we had in the fourth quarter last year. Continue to say we're always fortunate with our premium and super premium portfolio of brands that can handle the pressure that we've been facing over these last quarters. So as you can see on Slide 7, we did contract 170 basis points, ending at 58.4%. That price mix positively impacted gross margin by 200 basis points due to price increases across our portfolio, led largely by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey.

    好的。我將把它分成兩部分。因此,我們在某種程度上是年初至今,然後從我們的全年展望中退出。首先,我認為重要的是你要記得我們的全年指導,這與我們 2023 年上半年一致。因此它確實意味著第四季度有所改善。對我們來說,我們第四季度的正常季節性通常對毛利率產生積極影響,我們將受益於消除去年第四季度的外匯影響。繼續說我們一直很幸運,我們的優質和超優質品牌組合能夠應對我們在過去幾個季度面臨的壓力。因此,正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣,我們確實收縮了 170 個基點,收於 58.4%。由於我們投資組合的價格上漲,主要由傑克丹尼爾的田納西威士忌帶動,這種價格組合對毛利率產生了 200 個基點的積極影響。

  • Then we have the removal, a positive impact of the removal of the European Union and U.K. tariffs on American whiskey, which benefited our gross margin by 170 basis points. Specifically to your point on costs, our cost for the year-to-date was negatively impacted 430 basis points, and it's those 2 key drivers, which is the impact of inflation, which we are still seeing largely on most of our commodities. So some of that is beginning to ease. I'll speak to that in a moment. And then energy and fuel as well as for us in our third quarter, we still have November and December in our third quarter. So we were still experiencing expenses related to -- costs related to supply chain disruptions and getting that product to the shelf, though we do see those beginning to ease with our inventories returning to a more normalized level.

    然後我們取消了歐盟和英國取消對美國威士忌的關稅的積極影響,這使我們的毛利率提高了 170 個基點。具體到你關於成本的觀點,我們年初至今的成本受到了 430 個基點的負面影響,這是兩個關鍵驅動因素,即通貨膨脹的影響,我們仍然在很大程度上看到我們的大部分商品。所以其中一些開始緩解。稍後我會談到這一點。然後是能源和燃料,以及我們第三季度的能源和燃料,第三季度我們還有 11 月和 12 月。因此,我們仍在經歷與供應鏈中斷和將產品上架相關的費用,儘管我們確實看到隨著我們的庫存恢復到更正常的水平,這些費用開始減少。

  • And then I've already mentioned FX. It will be a headwind for the full year. It negatively impacted us year-to-date at 120 basis points, but we do see a bit of a benefit as we go into the fourth quarter. For our full year, one of the things we are seeing as it relates to the impact of inflation. When we plan this year, we planned it at a -- for inflation to be higher than our average. And in reality, we know it's been well above that, really on our commodities and our energy and fuel. Three notable areas that we do see easing beginning to come, which is in the space of natural gas, specifically in the U.S., it is beginning to decrease significantly in Q4. And even as we look into our Q3 and even as we see into the early parts of Q4, it continues to step down.

    然後我已經提到了 FX。這將是全年的逆風。今年迄今為止,它對我們產生了 120 個基點的負面影響,但在進入第四季度時,我們確實看到了一些好處。在我們全年,我們看到的其中一件事與通貨膨脹的影響有關。當我們今年計劃時,我們計劃它 - 通貨膨脹率高於我們的平均水平。事實上,我們知道它遠遠超過了我們的商品以及我們的能源和燃料。我們確實看到放鬆政策開始出現的三個值得注意的領域,即天然氣領域,特別是在美國,它在第四季度開始顯著下降。即使我們研究我們的第三季度,甚至當我們研究第四季度的早期部分時,它仍在繼續下降。

  • It's still above the prior year level, but it is beginning to ease. Then I'll also note that with glass prices, though they continue to increase in conjunction with the commodities and the inflation on the commodities takes to build the glass, the significant decline in the U.S. natural gas prices will help moderate the expected increases as we enter F '24. And then lastly, as it relates to freight, we've been talking about freight, transportation, logistics, that from an equipment perspective, it will remain imbalanced and stress, but the cost of fuel has been one of the largest drivers of the transportation costs. And now with the cost of oil that has been volatile, we do see that diesel prices are now below their peak as well. So those are 3 early indicators, kind of some of the easing of the inflation that we have seen, that really is still yet ahead of us to come.

    它仍高於上一年的水平,但開始有所緩和。然後我還會注意到玻璃價格,儘管它們繼續與商品一起上漲,商品的通貨膨脹需要製造玻璃,但美國天然氣價格的大幅下跌將有助於緩和預期的上漲,因為我們輸入 F '24。最後,關於貨運,我們一直在談論貨運、運輸、物流,從設備的角度來看,它會保持不平衡和壓力,但燃料成本一直是運輸的最大驅動因素之一費用。現在,隨著石油成本的波動,我們確實看到柴油價格現在也低於峰值。所以這些是 3 個早期指標,我們已經看到的一些通貨膨脹的緩和,這真的還沒有到來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Bernstein 的 Nadine Sarwat。

  • Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

    Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

  • I want to stick to that gross margin point. So far, we've been talking about what you're seeing at the moment and going into this last quarter. Could you help us understand any of your expectations for gross margins on the medium term? I appreciate you might not want to give explicit guidance, but to the extent that you could give us the puts and takes about where you think you can be trending, including calling out maybe where agave prices are, that would be very helpful.

    我想堅持那個毛利率點。到目前為止,我們一直在談論你目前看到的以及進入最後一個季度的情況。您能否幫助我們了解您對中期毛利率的任何預期?我很感激你可能不想給出明確的指導,但在某種程度上你可以給我們你認為你可以趨勢的看跌期權和看跌期權,包括可能指出龍舌蘭價格在哪裡,這將非常有幫助。

  • And then lastly, on your impairment, just a follow-up on the Finlandia brand. One of the reasons you called out were higher interest rates. I presume that would impact your entire portfolio when going through that exercise. So could you just give us a little bit more color about your expectations for this brand, in particular, how that's changed and the role you see it play in your portfolio going forward?

    最後,關於您的損害,只是芬蘭品牌的後續行動。你呼籲的原因之一是更高的利率。我認為在進行該練習時,這會影響您的整個投資組合。那麼,您能否就您對這個品牌的期望給我們更多的顏色,特別是它是如何改變的,以及您認為它在您未來的投資組合中扮演的角色?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay. I will start on a bit more color on the midterm for cost. You're correct, and we're always excited this time of year to begin thinking about and talking about the next fiscal year, but next quarter is when we'll provide significantly more detail on that. I can say and with the commentary that we have is with our distributor and retailer inventories returning to a more normalized level, a significant portion of the cost that we have incurred related to the expedited shipments of our finished goods into the market, we believe that's going to significantly ease as we move forward. That's probably the best thing that I can say for that today.

    好的。為了成本起見,我將在中期開始使用更多顏色。你是對的,我們總是很高興每年的這個時候開始考慮和談論下一個財政年度,但下個季度我們將提供更多細節。我可以說,根據我們的評論,我們的分銷商和零售商庫存恢復到更正常的水平,我們所產生的很大一部分成本與加快將成品運送到市場有關,我們相信這是隨著我們的前進,將大大緩解。這可能是我今天能說的最好的話。

  • To your comment on agave. Agave, we continue to be -- we've talked about there is strong demand for the category, but we do see greater supply coming on. We are beyond our peak, but we have kind of stabilized around the MXN 28 to MXN 30 per kilo. And for us specifically, our demand has been very strong. So the balance between our internal and external sourcing is for us kind of one of the headwinds we had faced in this year. But again, we do see that supply coming on, and we'll talk more about that in the next quarter as what we think for the next fiscal year.

    您對龍舌蘭的評論。龍舌蘭,我們繼續 - 我們已經談到對該類別的需求強勁,但我們確實看到更多的供應。我們已經超出了峰值,但我們已經穩定在每公斤 28 墨西哥比索到 30 墨西哥比索附近。特別是對於我們來說,我們的需求非常強勁。因此,我們內部和外部採購之間的平衡對我們來說是我們今年面臨的不利因素之一。但同樣,我們確實看到供應正在增加,我們將在下一季度更多地討論這一點,作為我們對下一財年的看法。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • And then on Finlandia, Nadine. So yes, that -- look, a sizable impairment charge is not something that's fun, but obviously, I think you all know it's noncash. What happened was, it's a combination of things. It's the rising interest rates, meant the impairment testing, I mean, that quickly catches on the impairment testing front, and that's what -- that's the major reason that we had to take a second impairment charge on Finlandia.

    然後是 Finlandia,Nadine。所以是的,那 - 看,相當大的減值費用並不是一件有趣的事情,但顯然,我想你們都知道這是非現金的。發生的事情是,它是多種因素的結合。這是利率上升,意味著減值測試,我的意思是,這很快就趕上了減值測試,這就是 - 這是我們不得不對 Finlandia 進行第二次減值費用的主要原因。

  • It's also feeling the pressure from higher cost -- its input costs are higher. And then obviously, Russia and then not only Russia, but the countries that touch it all around there are all very, very weak. And so -- it's just been a tough situation. As you all know, it is a regional brand for us. It's not really even sold in much of the world at this point in time anymore.

    它還感受到來自更高成本的壓力——它的投入成本更高。然後很明顯,俄羅斯,不僅是俄羅斯,而且周圍所有接觸它的國家都非常非常弱。所以 - 這只是一個艱難的局面。眾所周知,它是我們的區域品牌。目前,它甚至不再在世界大部分地區銷售。

  • It's a very -- it is an important brand in certain countries, particularly in Eastern Europe. So the suspension of the business in Russia was the biggest single factor that made it so difficult, but we're going to continue trying to improve the performance of the brand and continue to fight through what is a very difficult situation.

    在某些國家,尤其是東歐,這是一個非常重要的品牌。因此,俄羅斯業務的暫停是造成困難的最大單一因素,但我們將繼續努力提高品牌的表現,並繼續與非常困難的局面作鬥爭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Stephen Powers of Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Stephen Powers。

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • I just wanted to go back and maybe round out the gross margin conversation and the cost conversation. I think behind the commentary you gave around your cost pressures year-to-date and where you see things going was very helpful. But I guess, I'm left with the question of just trying to untie how much of what you've experienced and are experiencing is just a byproduct of general cost pressures kind of industry-wide, which I'm sure is the big part [of their] versus how much of what you've incurred maybe specific to Brown-Forman just based on the way your supply chain is configured and the reality is there or procurement timing, contracting realities. I'm just trying to understand how much maybe kind of more unique to you versus the industry. And if there are things that are more unique to you, just as there's any learnings there as you think about the medium to longer term about how you could maybe insulate yourself from some of that volatility, again, to the extent there is a company-specific element there.

    我只是想回去,也許可以完成毛利率對話和成本對話。我認為你對年初至今的成本壓力和你看到的事情的發展方向所做的評論背後是非常有幫助的。但我想,我只剩下一個問題,就是試圖解開你所經歷和正在經歷的事情中有多少只是整個行業普遍成本壓力的副產品,我相信這是很大的一部分[他們的] 與你所招致的費用中有多少可能是特定於 Brown-Forman 的,這取決於你的供應鏈的配置方式和現實情況,或者採購時間,合同現實。我只是想了解您與行業相比有多少獨特之處。而且,如果有一些事情對您來說更獨特,就像您從中長期考慮如何使自己免受某些波動的影響一樣,就像那裡有任何學習一樣,再一次,在某種程度上有一家公司-那裡的特定元素。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, a few things have happened. And when you think about kind of the impact of inflation and supply chain disruption, generally speaking, 2/3, 1/3 -- with the 2/3 being inflation, for us, I mean, I think we've experienced fairly globally the same from inflation. I mean our mix of commodities may be a bit different than other people's commodities, whether we're sourcing domestically in the United States or internationally, and our mix may be a bit different from others.

    好吧,發生了一些事情。當你考慮通貨膨脹和供應鏈中斷的影響時,一般來說,2/3,1/3 - 其中 2/3 是通貨膨脹,對我們來說,我的意思是,我認為我們在全球範圍內經歷了相當多的經歷通貨膨脹也一樣。我的意思是我們的商品組合可能與其他人的商品有點不同,無論我們是在美國國內還是國際採購,我們的組合可能與其他人有點不同。

  • For us, I think we continue to have the opportunity where we have talked about for the last few quarters, and we have taken on some costs as it relates to risk mitigation to our supply chain that you have heard us talk about.

    對我們來說,我認為我們繼續有機會在過去幾個季度討論過,我們已經承擔了一些成本,因為它與您聽到我們談論的供應鏈風險緩解有關。

  • As we went through supply chain challenges related to glass, we were intentional about diversifying our supplier base that always comes at a bit of a cost. But again, we thought -- we think and continue to think it will position us well for the future. Again, for the 1/3 related to the supply chain challenges, I've already talked to that. I think that we are moving beyond that as we return our inventories to more normal.

    當我們經歷與玻璃相關的供應鏈挑戰時,我們有意使我們的供應商基礎多樣化,這總是需要付出一些代價。但我們再次認為——我們認為並將繼續認為它將為我們的未來做好準備。同樣,對於與供應鏈挑戰相關的 1/3,我已經談過了。我認為我們正在超越這一點,因為我們將庫存恢復到更正常的水平。

  • Again, one thing that might be a bit different from us is just percent of inventory we have of our business as an aged product that might be a little bit different than others, but we can probably dissect that at different day, but -- what was the last part of your question?

    再說一次,可能與我們有點不同的是,我們的業務中作為陳舊產品的庫存百分比可能與其他產品略有不同,但我們可能會在不同的日子對其進行剖析,但是 - 什麼是你問題的最後一部分嗎?

  • Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

    Stephen Robert R. Powers - Research Analyst

  • No, actually, I was okay on agave. I think there might have been a question earlier on just sort of what you're seeing on agave, if you've got any comments there.

    不,實際上,我對龍舌蘭沒問題。我想之前可能有人問過你在龍舌蘭上看到的東西,如果你有任何評論的話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Filippo Falorni of Citibank.

    我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Filippo Falorni。

  • Filippo Falorni - VP

    Filippo Falorni - VP

  • I was wondering if you can talk about the consumer trends that you're seeing across the world, particularly in terms of premiumization, whether you're seeing any slowdown. In your prepared remarks, you sound still optimistic about the premiumization trends. But on the margin, are you seeing any change in consumer behavior? And if you can comment on this topic for your key markets, looking about the U.S., Europe and some of your emerging markets.

    我想知道你是否可以談談你在世界各地看到的消費趨勢,特別是在高端化方面,你是否看到任何放緩。在您準備好的發言中,您聽起來仍然對高端化趨勢持樂觀態度。但就邊際而言,您是否看到消費者行為有任何變化?如果你能就你的主要市場的這個話題發表評論,看看美國、歐洲和一些新興市場。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, I'll talk a little bit about -- I mean the consumer demand, I mean, look, it has still remained very, very strong, as you can see just in our top line figures. I think if you -- there's the question around premiumization, which has been happening for 20 years, has been happening in our industry. If we go down to the U.S. market and look about premiumization, it really -- premiumization trends spiked a lot during COVID.

    是的,我會談談 - 我的意思是消費者需求,我的意思是,看,它仍然非常非常強勁,正如您在我們的頂線數據中看到的那樣。我想如果你 - 已經發生了 20 年的優質化問題一直在我們的行業中發生。如果我們深入到美國市場,看看高端化,它真的——高端化趨勢在 COVID 期間飆升了很多。

  • They are returning to a little bit more of a normalcy. But if you look at TDS in the United States and you take a look at the breakdown by price point, you'll still see, I'll say, super-premium, ultra-premium growing at a higher rate than say a plain premium, but premium or something down in the standard category. So the story is still true that consumers are premiumizing their purchases and spirits, and that trend has -- is still strong.

    他們正在恢復一點常態。但如果你看看美國的 TDS,看看按價格點細分,你仍然會看到,我會說,超高端、超高端的增長速度高於普通溢價,但在標準類別中溢價或其他東西。所以這個故事仍然是真實的,消費者正在對他們的購買和烈酒進行優質化,而且這種趨勢 - 仍然很強勁。

  • But if not -- the differential between the 2 is not as strong as it was, I'll say, a couple of years ago. So I hope I explained that right. So you're still seeing the premium trends. It's just the delta between super premium and ultra and then the other price points [down low] has come down a little bit. I think a positive take out of all this, though, is our pricing strategy over the last couple of years, so we're through -- essentially through 2 years of this, of low single-digit, but consistent regular pricing seems to be working pretty well.

    但如果不是——我會說,兩者之間的差異並不像幾年前那麼大。所以我希望我解釋正確。所以你仍然看到了高端趨勢。這只是超高端和超高端之間的差值,然後其他價格點 [低位] 已經下降了一點。不過,我認為我們過去幾年的定價策略是對所有這一切的積極影響,所以我們基本上已經度過了 2 年的低個位數,但一致的常規定價似乎是工作得很好。

  • We think we've got a nice balance between where consumers are willing to take the price increases, where retailers are willing to take the price increases and -- we think it's the smart thing to do over the long term. And so we're going to continue that trend as much as we can. And so far, we have not seen an elasticity that would really make us, say, you know what, I'm not sure that's the right thing to do. We continue to [pull] forward, and I think we're getting a better balance between volume and pricing, which is something we very much want.

    我們認為我們在消費者願意接受價格上漲的地方、零售商願意接受價格上漲的地方以及 - 我們認為從長遠來看這是明智之舉之間取得了很好的平衡。因此,我們將盡可能地延續這一趨勢。到目前為止,我們還沒有看到真正讓我們有彈性的東西,比如說,你知道嗎,我不確定這是正確的做法。我們繼續 [拉] 前進,我認為我們在數量和定價之間取得了更好的平衡,這是我們非常想要的。

  • Filippo Falorni - VP

    Filippo Falorni - VP

  • Got it. Anything in particular you're seeing in Europe and emerging markets? Maybe if you can comment on those divisions?

    知道了。您在歐洲和新興市場看到了什麼特別的東西?也許您可以對這些分歧發表評論?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • I mean not really. But I would caution, it's difficult to take our trends and extrapolate them to a broad read around the consumers around the world. And that has everything to do with the shipment comparisons that we're dealing with. So if we're only looking at our brands, the shipment comparison, the timing of glass availability, last year, and how we compare against this year sort of dominates our trends more so than what we would say is a read across the consumer moving around. So I know that doesn't really answer your question, but we're just sort of in a unique situation given the volatility that we've seen with glass.

    我的意思是不是真的。但我要提醒的是,很難將我們的趨勢推廣到全世界消費者的廣泛閱讀中。這與我們正在處理的發貨比較有關。因此,如果我們只關注我們的品牌,去年的出貨量比較、玻璃供應時間以及我們與今年的比較在某種程度上主導了我們的趨勢,而不是我們所說的對消費者移動的解讀大約。所以我知道這並不能真正回答你的問題,但鑑於我們在玻璃方面看到的波動性,我們只是處於一種獨特的情況。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

  • Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

    Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

  • I thought it'd be useful and we spent a little bit of time on U.S. business, so down 10% year-over-year in the quarter, understanding the dynamics around inventory is difficult year-over-year comp. Just a few questions here. Just comment, if you wouldn't mind, how the U.S. business came in relative to your own expectations, understanding you certainly run the business longer term, I think we can appreciate that. But from a quarterly perspective, how it came in.

    我認為這很有用,我們在美國業務上花了一些時間,所以本季度同比下降 10%,了解庫存動態與去年同期相比很困難。這裡只是幾個問題。只是評論一下,如果你不介意,美國業務如何與你自己的期望相關,了解你肯定會長期經營業務,我想我們可以理解。但是從季度的角度來看,它是如何進來的。

  • Leanne, you also made comments about normalization of inventory levels. I'm assuming that, that commentary sort of holds for U.S. as well. But if you could just confirm that. And then lastly, just from a consumer demand perspective, maybe just touch on retail takeaway and depletions in the quarter, specifically for the U.S. and then expectations here as we look out in the intermediate term. So that would be helpful.

    Leanne,您還對庫存水平正常化發表了評論。我假設這種評論也適用於美國。但如果你能證實這一點。最後,從消費者需求的角度來看,也許只涉及本季度的零售外賣和消耗,特別是美國,然後是我們中期展望的預期。這樣會有幫助。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • All right. Kevin, I'll start it, and then Leanne, you can add on if you want to. Look, it is -- the U.S. market is beginning to normalize. I think we've said that a couple of times, but it's normalizing on a higher base for sure compared to where we were a few years ago. But if you look at TDS right now, it's trending back to the mid-single-digit range, which was where it was for many of the years pre-COVID.

    好的。凱文,我會開始,然後是 Leanne,如果你願意,可以添加。看,它是——美國市場開始正常化。我想我們已經說過幾次了,但與幾年前相比,它肯定會在更高的基礎上正常化。但如果你現在看一下 TDS,它正趨向於回到中等個位數範圍,這在 COVID 之前的許多年裡都是如此。

  • So now we delivered 4% in the first 9 months of the year. That was essentially expected. I mean we were plus 11% through the first half. And so we knew a slowdown was coming, and it did -- it fare that way out. It essentially came in relatively close to where we thought. And there is another big factor in this Q3 number for the U.S. And that's -- if you go back to last year, just looking at Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey in the third quarter of fiscal '22, we were plus 35. So that is a huge number to compare against.

    所以現在我們在今年的前 9 個月交付了 4%。這基本上是意料之中的。我的意思是我們在上半年增加了 11%。所以我們知道經濟放緩即將到來,而且確實如此 - 它一路走來。它基本上與我們的想法相對接近。美國第三季度的數據還有另一個重要因素——如果你回到去年,看看傑克丹尼爾在 22 財年第三季度的田納西威士忌,我們增加了 35。所以這是一個巨大的數字進行比較。

  • And that's because that's -- this -- we're back to the same glass availability topic, where the glass became available in the third quarter. We prioritized Jack over the rest of our portfolio as the on-premise was also opening, and it just was a massive quarter.

    那是因為那是——這個——我們又回到了同樣的玻璃可用性主題,玻璃在第三季度上市。我們將 Jack 優先於我們投資組合的其餘部分,因為內部部署也正在開放,而且這是一個巨大的季度。

  • And so that comparison had a big impact. If you step back and look at Nielsen or NABCA, you can get a much more sort of normalized rate of growth these days. And that would tell us the U.S. market for us is in that 6% range. I think TDS is 5% to 6%, somewhere right around there. And the NABCA numbers are actually even a little bit higher than that. And so we feel pretty good that maybe if it has returned to normal, but normal is still pretty good for the U.S. market.

    因此,這種比較產生了很大的影響。如果你退一步看看尼爾森或 NABCA,你現在可以獲得更多的標準化增長率。這會告訴我們美國市場對我們來說是在 6% 的範圍內。我認為 TDS 是 5% 到 6%,就在附近。而 NABCA 的數字實際上比這還要高一點。所以我們感覺很好,也許如果它恢復正常,但正常對美國市場來說仍然很好。

  • And certainly, we're seeing stronger rates of growth outside of the United States. So I think it's also worth pointing out, at least within our own performance, we're doing a little bit better than TDS, which is something that's a goal that we always have out there. And to be ahead of both Nielsen and NABCA with it -- honestly, it's been a while since we were above it. Once again, a lot of that because of the glass, but it's nice for our teams to know that they're back ahead of TDS.

    當然,我們看到美國以外地區的增長率更高。所以我認為也值得指出,至少在我們自己的表現中,我們做得比 TDS 好一點,這是我們一直以來的目標。並且領先於尼爾森和 NABCA——老實說,我們超越它已經有一段時間了。再一次,很多都是因為玻璃,但我們的團隊很高興知道他們重新領先於 TDS。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • And then I'll just add 2 things. If you -- all the way back to when we originally planned this fiscal year, you'll recall that we planned for the beginning of normalization with an outlook, a top line organic outlook at mid-single digits, which aligns with our long-term algorithm. That included us cycling the largest impact of the pandemic and also the absence of our Russia business. So as we've gone through, again, all of the prioritization and the strong shipments; in our first half, we had a 5-point benefit year-over-year due to that effort.

    然後我將添加兩件事。如果你 - 一直回到我們最初計劃本財政年度的時候,你會記得我們計劃開始正常化,前景是中等個位數的頂線有機前景,這與我們的長期一致 -術語算法。這包括我們騎自行車大流行的最大影響,以及我們俄羅斯業務的缺席。因此,當我們再次經歷所有的優先次序和強勁的出貨量時;在我們的上半年,由於這項努力,我們同比獲得了 5 個百分點的收益。

  • Now that we're beginning to lap that very strong comparison of our rebuilding the inventory against the prior year and our markets around the world are beginning to normalize, we have a benefit of 2 points. So I think that's worth noting. And then the other thing, I would say, is in the prepared remarks, we talked about the U.S. business inventory being back in line and at a normal level.

    現在我們開始將我們重建庫存與上一年的庫存進行非常有力的比較,並且我們在世界各地的市場開始正常化,我們有 2 個百分點的優勢。所以我認為這值得注意。然後,我想說的另一件事是,在準備好的發言中,我們談到了美國企業庫存恢復正常並處於正常水平。

  • At the enterprise level, we continue to make significant progress. We continue to see a net increase in distributor inventories. At the same time, it's still having the strong consumer demand. But we still believe, as we said last quarter that by the end of this fiscal year, we would kind of be back at, from the enterprise perspective, a more pretty much normal historical levels of inventory.

    在企業層面,我們繼續取得重大進展。我們繼續看到分銷商庫存出現淨增長。同時,它仍然具有強勁的消費需求。但我們仍然相信,正如我們上個季度所說的那樣,到本財年末,從企業的角度來看,我們將有點回到更正常的歷史庫存水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Brett Cooper of Consumer Edge Research.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Consumer Edge Research 的 Brett Cooper。

  • Brett Young Cooper - Senior Analyst & Managing Partner

    Brett Young Cooper - Senior Analyst & Managing Partner

  • Question for you on distribution or route-to-market. In the U.S., one of your competitors move to beer distributors, United States. Outside the U.S., we're seeing distillers testing alternative routes-to-market whether that be through the Coke bottling network or selling through brewers. And with your business building a relationship with the beer distributors in the U.S., Coke network outside of the U.S., I was wondering if you could speak to or assess your route-to-market potential for changes, and if there's an opportunity to supplement your current efforts?

    關於分銷或上市路線的問題。在美國,您的一個競爭對手轉移到美國的啤酒經銷商。在美國以外,我們看到釀酒商正在測試其他上市途徑,無論是通過可口可樂裝瓶網絡還是通過釀酒商銷售。隨著您的企業與美國啤酒經銷商、美國以外的可口可樂網絡建立關係,我想知道您是否可以談談或評估您的市場變化潛力,以及是否有機會補充您的目前的努力?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, I'll speak to a little bit at least about the U.S. changes throughout the market. I mean -- we are using [Rye] out in California for our launching a Jack and Coke, so that's something that is quite a bit different. But we're still very much in partnership with Breakthru and RNDC for the most -- as our largest 2 partners in the U.S. And that business, as you can see through the numbers, it remains pretty strong.

    好吧,我至少要談談美國整個市場的變化。我的意思是——我們在加利福尼亞使用 [Rye] 來推出 Jack and Coke,所以這有點不同。但我們仍然與 Breakthru 和 RNDC 保持著密切的合作關係——作為我們在美國最大的兩個合作夥伴。從數據中可以看出,這項業務仍然非常強勁。

  • We also made the change 2 years ago with past -- I think, it was what it was. That was all about getting with a distributor partner that was able to reach all these points of retailers that are able to sell malt products which is Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails and that has been an enormous benefit to that brand. And so I think our -- we are testing different models in the United States. When you leave the U.S., it's very different. That story has all been about us sort of forward integrating and being responsible for our own route-to-market.

    我們也在 2 年前對過去進行了更改 - 我認為,它就是這樣。這就是與經銷商合作夥伴的合作,該合作夥伴能夠接觸到能夠銷售麥芽產品的零售商的所有這些點,即傑克丹尼的鄉村雞尾酒,這對該品牌來說是一個巨大的好處。所以我認為我們的 - 我們正在美國測試不同的模型。當你離開美國時,情況就大不相同了。這個故事一直是關於我們在某種程度上向前整合併對我們自己的市場路線負責。

  • And we've -- and we say, 5 markets in the last 2 years, something like that. So we continue to be pretty agile and try to mix it up and try different changes or different models and different partnerships. And I think overall, that's had a pretty healthy impact on our business, really not even over the last year, but over the last decade or so, it's been a pretty meaningful impact.

    我們 - 我們說,過去兩年有 5 個市場,類似的東西。因此,我們繼續非常敏捷,並嘗試將其混合併嘗試不同的變化或不同的模型和不同的合作夥伴關係。我認為總的來說,這對我們的業務產生了非常健康的影響,甚至在去年都沒有,但在過去十年左右的時間裡,這是一個非常有意義的影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a sort of backward-looking question, but [in forming] the forward. And just that in hindsight, it maybe seems like you had greater supply chain issues or glass constraints than some of your peers in the industry. And I just say that based on -- as you've talked through reasons for the gap between your performance in TDS previously and that now kind of catching up. So just looking backwards to look forward, are there changes you're making in terms of supply chain, relationships with suppliers, et cetera, or the way that you manage inventory in-house thoughts and with distributors to make sure that you're not in that position again.

    我想問一種向後看的問題,但[形成]前瞻性的問題。事後看來,您的供應鏈問題或玻璃限制似乎比業內一些同行更大。我只是說,這是基於——正如你所說的,你之前在 TDS 中的表現與現在的表現之間存在差距的原因。因此,回顧過去,展望未來,您是否在供應鏈、與供應商的關係等方面做出了改變,或者您管理內部庫存的方式以及與分銷商的想法,以確保您不會再次處於那個位置。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, we can start with -- in comparison to TDS, again, we've talked many times, and again, around how we were impacted and then how we prioritize our brands of how -- based of the opportunities that were available at the time. So with the glass supply capacity that we had, we wanted to prioritize Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey with the reopening of the on-premise. Quickly thereafter, we prioritize Woodford Reserve to have that brand available. And so as we went through that prioritization, it -- as Lawson has said many times, it's made it very, very hard to compare our results and our takeaway trends compared to TDS.

    好吧,我們可以開始——與 TDS 相比,我們已經多次討論過我們是如何受到影響的,然後我們如何優先考慮我們的品牌——基於當時可用的機會時間。因此,憑藉我們擁有的玻璃供應能力,我們希望在內部重新開放時優先考慮 Jack Daniel 的田納西威士忌。此後不久,我們優先考慮 Woodford Reserve 提供該品牌。因此,當我們進行優先排序時,正如勞森多次說過的那樣,與 TDS 相比,我們很難將我們的結果和外賣趨勢進行比較。

  • Now what we have done is, again, you've heard me talk about, we have done a few things on the supply chain side of our business. We have invested in new technologies to give us greater visibility. And we are implementing new processes. I think, Lauren, when we were together, we talked about actually new processes related to forecasting and planning demand. And then from a cost perspective, we've also incurred some costs to diversify our supply chain, specifically around glass supply. But then we've also brought in new tools and learned new ways of expediting our products to market when and where that's needed.

    現在我們所做的是,你已經聽過我說過,我們在我們業務的供應鏈方面做了一些事情。我們投資於新技術,以提高我們的知名度。我們正在實施新流程。我認為,勞倫,當我們在一起時,我們實際上討論了與預測和規劃需求相關的新流程。然後從成本的角度來看,我們還產生了一些成本來使我們的供應鏈多樣化,特別是在玻璃供應方面。但隨後我們也引入了新工具並學習了新方法,可以在需要的時間和地點加快我們的產品上市。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. I mean I think we've said this on some prior calls, too, but we were nearly 100% with 1 partner for glass supply. And when you talk about Jack Daniel's and Woodford, you're looking at a U.S. supplier of glass for the world. And when that 1 supplier began to really struggle, it impacted us greatly, and we didn't have anywhere else to turn. And so -- it has taken -- it's been about a year since we, in earnest, found some other partners. And so we are diversifying. We're still heavily reliant on that 1 supplier. But we're trying to diversify a bit. So once again, so we don't get caught in this again, although I must say, we were with that same supplier for 100 years and not had any problems before that. So it was very much a COVID-driven crazy volatile world that caused a lot of these problems.

    是的。我的意思是我認為我們在之前的一些電話中也說過這一點,但我們幾乎 100% 與 1 個玻璃供應合作夥伴合作。當您談論 Jack Daniel's 和 Woodford 時,您指的是一家面向全球的美國玻璃供應商。當那 1 個供應商開始真正掙扎時,它對我們的影響很大,我們別無選擇。因此 - 它已經過去了 - 自從我們認真地找到其他一些合作夥伴以來已經過去了大約一年。所以我們正在多元化。我們仍然嚴重依賴那一家供應商。但我們正試圖多樣化一點。所以再一次,所以我們不會再次陷入困境,儘管我必須說,我們與同一個供應商合作了 100 年,在此之前沒有任何問題。因此,這是一個由 COVID 驅動的瘋狂動盪世界,導致了很多此類問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This is all the time we have allotted for questions. I will now turn the conference back to Sue Perram for closing remarks.

    謝謝。這是我們分配給問題的所有時間。我現在將會議轉回 Sue Perram 作閉幕詞。

  • Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

    Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

  • Well, thank you. And thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Third Quarter and year-to-date fiscal 2023 earnings call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. On this International Women's Day, we hope you will join us in celebrating the women of Brown-Forman and women all around the world. With that, this concludes our call.

    嗯,謝謝。感謝 Lawson 和 Leanne,感謝大家今天加入我們,參加 Brown-Forman 的第三季度和年初至今的 2023 財年財報電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題,請聯繫我們。在這個國際婦女節,我們希望您能與我們一起慶祝 Brown-Forman 的女性和世界各地的女性。至此,我們的電話就此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect and have a pleasant day.

    這確實結束了今天的電話會議。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接並度過愉快的一天。