Brown-Forman Corp (BF.B) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Brown-Forman Corporation Second Quarter and First Half of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded.

    你好。感謝您的支持,歡迎來到 Brown-Forman Corporation 2023 財年第二季度和上半年的收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議可能會被錄製。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sue Perram, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人,投資者關係副總裁 Sue Perram。請繼續。

  • Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

    Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to thank each of you for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Second Quarter and First Half of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call.

    謝謝大家,早上好。我要感謝大家今天加入我們,參加 Brown-Forman 的 2023 財年第二季度和上半年收益電話會議。

  • Joining me today are Lawson Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Leanne Cunningham, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    今天加入我的是總裁兼首席執行官 Lawson Whiting;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Leanne Cunningham。

  • This morning's conference call contains forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. Numerous risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated or projected in these statements. Many of the factors that will determine future results are beyond the company's ability to control or predict. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any of these statements, whether due to new information, future events or otherwise.

    今天上午的電話會議包含基於我們當前預期的前瞻性陳述。許多風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與這些聲明中預期或預測的結果存在重大差異。許多決定未來結果的因素都超出了公司的控製或預測能力。您不應過分依賴任何前瞻性陳述。除非法律要求,公司不承擔更新任何這些聲明的義務,無論是由於新信息、未來事件或其他原因。

  • This morning, we issued a press release containing our results for the second quarter and first half of fiscal 2023 in addition to posting presentation materials that Lawson and Leanne will walk through momentarily. Both the release and the presentation can be found on our website under the section titled Investors, Events and Presentations.

    今天上午,我們發布了一份新聞稿,其中包含我們 2023 財年第二季度和上半年的業績,此外還發布了 Lawson 和 Leanne 將暫時瀏覽的演示材料。新聞稿和演示文稿均可在我們網站上標題為“投資者、活動和演示文稿”的部分下找到。

  • In the press release, we have listed a number of the risk factors you should consider in conjunction with our forward-looking statements. Other significant risk factors are described in our Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    在新聞稿中,我們列出了您應該結合我們的前瞻性陳述考慮的一些風險因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格和 10-Q 表格報告中描述了其他重大風險因素。

  • During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are a reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. And the reasons management believes they provide useful information to investors regarding the company's financial conditions and results of operations are contained in the press release and investor presentation.

    在這次電話會議中,我們將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些措施是對最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節。管理層認為他們向投資者提供有關公司財務狀況和經營業績的有用信息的原因包含在新聞稿和投資者介紹中。

  • With that, I would like to turn the call over to Lawson.

    有了這個,我想把電話轉給勞森。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, thank you, Sue, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to share our results with you today as we had a strong first half for fiscal '23. We delivered double-digit top line growth on both a reported and organic basis. This performance was led by the strength of our portfolio of brands, which continued to benefit from strong consumer demand. We also benefited from the rebuilding of distributor inventories, which continued to recover as supply chain disruptions and constraints eased, particularly for glass.

    好吧,謝謝你,蘇,大家早上好。我很高興今天與您分享我們的結果,因為我們在 23 財年上半年表現強勁。我們在報告和有機基礎上實現了兩位數的收入增長。這一業績得益於我們品牌組合的實力,這些品牌組合繼續受益於強勁的消費者需求。我們還受益於經銷商庫存的重建,隨著供應鏈中斷和限制的緩解,庫存繼續恢復,尤其是玻璃。

  • The recovery, though, has added additional costs as overall supply chain logistics and transportation continue to be constrained, and we proactively took actions to satisfy the demand from our distributors and retailers ahead of the important holiday season. These costs, along with inflationary increases and the negative effect of foreign exchange more than offset the positive impact gained from favorable price mix and the removal of the EU and U.K. tariffs on American whiskey. The result was gross margin contraction, though during the first half.

    不過,由於整體供應鏈物流和運輸繼續受到限制,復甦增加了額外成本,我們積極採取行動,在重要的假日季節到來之前滿足分銷商和零售商的需求。這些成本,連同通貨膨脹的增加和外彙的負面影響,足以抵消有利的價格組合以及歐盟和英國取消對美國威士忌的關稅所帶來的積極影響。結果是毛利率收縮,儘管是在上半年。

  • Now let me provide a few additional details on the first half. Our reported top line growth increased 11% with organic growth increasing 17% after adjusting for foreign exchange headwinds. Organic net sales growth in the first half was driven by continued strong growth for Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey across all geographic clusters in the travel retail channel, Woodford Reserve in the U.S., Jack Daniel's RTDs in Australia and Germany, along with New Mix in Mexico, and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire in the United States.

    現在讓我提供一些關於上半年的額外細節。我們報告的收入增長增長了 11%,在調整了外匯不利因素後,有機增長增長了 17%。上半年的有機淨銷售額增長受到以下因素的推動:Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 在旅遊零售渠道所有地理區域的持續強勁增長、美國的 Woodford Reserve、澳大利亞和德國的 Jack Daniel's RTD,以及墨西哥的 New Mix,傑克丹尼的田納西蜂蜜和傑克丹尼的田納西火在美國。

  • Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey was the largest driver of our top line performance, delivering double-digit growth with an organic net sales increase of 18%. The growth was driven by strong consumer demand, higher pricing and favorable channel mix.

    傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌是我們營收業績的最大推動力,實現了兩位數的增長,有機淨銷售額增長了 18%。這一增長是由強勁的消費者需求、更高的定價和有利的渠道組合推動的。

  • Our super-premium American whiskey portfolio also increased organic net sales by double digits. Woodford Reserve and Old Forester grew organic net sales 40% and 39%, respectively.

    我們的超優質美國威士忌產品組合也使有機淨銷售額增長了兩位數。 Woodford Reserve 和 Old Forester 的有機淨銷售額分別增長了 40% 和 39%。

  • Despite supply chain -- supply constraints in the prior year, consumer demand for Woodford Reserve remained strong, and we were better able to meet this demand as glass supply challenges eased, and we increased our bottling capacity.

    儘管供應鏈——上一年供應受限,但消費者對 Woodford Reserve 的需求依然強勁,隨著玻璃供應挑戰的緩解,我們能夠更好地滿足這一需求,並且我們提高了裝瓶能力。

  • The consumer trends of convenience and flavors continue to fuel double-digit growth of our RTDs, which were the third largest contributor to overall company growth. Jack Daniel's RTDs grew organic net sales 15%, and New Mix delivered 46% organic net sales growth. Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire also benefited from the same consumer trends as well as improved glass supply. Both brands grew organic net sales double digits, 12% and 28%, respectively.

    方便和口味的消費趨勢繼續推動我們的 RTD 以兩位數的速度增長,這是對公司整體增長的第三大貢獻。 Jack Daniel's RTDs 的有機淨銷售額增長了 15%,New Mix 實現了 46% 的有機淨銷售額增長。 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey 和 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire 也受益於相同的消費趨勢以及玻璃供應的改善。這兩個品牌的有機淨銷售額分別增長了兩位數,分別為 12% 和 28%。

  • I also wanted to mention our full-strength tequila portfolio. As we shared last quarter, Herradura experienced significant challenges during the first 3 months of fiscal '23 due to supply chain disruption, mainly related to glass. Fortunately, glass supply increased through the end of the first half, enabling us to better meet demand and deliver a 9% increase in organic net sales for Herradura. Organic net sales for el Jimador increased 18%, driven by higher volumes in the United States.

    我還想提一下我們的全效龍舌蘭酒產品組合。正如我們在上個季度分享的那樣,由於主要與玻璃有關的供應鏈中斷,Herradura 在 23 財年的前 3 個月經歷了重大挑戰。幸運的是,上半年末玻璃供應有所增加,使我們能夠更好地滿足需求,並使 Herradura 的有機淨銷售額增長了 9%。受美國銷量增加的推動,el Jimador 的有機淨銷售額增長了 18%。

  • So now turning to gross profit. In the first half of fiscal '23, our reported gross profit increased 8% or 17% on an organic basis. We continue to focus on an overall strategy to increase prices more consistently year after year and benefited from 240 basis points of favorable price mix in the first half.

    所以現在轉向毛利。在 23 財年上半年,我們報告的毛利潤有機增長了 8% 或 17%。我們繼續專注於年復一年更一致地提高價格的總體戰略,並受益於上半年 240 個基點的優惠價格組合。

  • Based on Nielsen data, Brown-Forman remains one of the pricing leaders in the U.S. with nearly 3% pricing growth outpacing total distilled spirits growth of just over 2%. This continued emphasis on identifying pricing opportunities, not just in the U.S. but also internationally, is a key part of our focus on revenue growth management. These efforts span across multiple spectrums, including mix such as channel, pack and customer, promotional strategy and efficiency, trade terms and distributor margins and, of course, pricing.

    根據 Nielsen 的數據,Brown-Forman 仍然是美國的定價領導者之一,其近 3% 的價格增長超過了剛剛超過 2% 的總蒸餾酒增長。這種持續強調識別定價機會,不僅在美國而且在國際上,是我們關注收入增長管理的關鍵部分。這些努力跨越多個領域,包括渠道、包裝和客戶等組合、促銷策略和效率、貿易條款和分銷商利潤率,當然還有定價。

  • However, gross margin headwinds more than offset these pricing actions, resulting in 130 basis points of gross margin contraction. Supply chain transportation and logistics costs and constraints remain challenging, and we took proactive steps to ensure our products would be on the shelf ahead of the important holiday season. We believe these decisions supported our top line growth, ensured we met the strong consumer demand for our brands and allowed us to continue to implement our long-term pricing strategy.

    然而,毛利率逆風抵消了這些定價行為,導致毛利率收縮 130 個基點。供應鏈運輸和物流成本和限制仍然具有挑戰性,我們採取積極措施確保我們的產品能夠在重要的假日季節之前上架。我們相信這些決定支持了我們的收入增長,確保我們滿足了消費者對我們品牌的強烈需求,並使我們能夠繼續實施我們的長期定價策略。

  • With our long-term perspective, we have the opportunity to continue to invest in the momentum of our brands and ensure we're developing and driving the next generation of growth. Over the last 2 decades, we've transformed our portfolio to focus on premium and super-premium brands. We've sold our consumer durables business, the majority of our wines as well as standard brands in slower-growth categories.

    憑藉我們的長遠眼光,我們有機會繼續投資於我們品牌的發展勢頭,確保我們正在發展和推動下一代增長。在過去的 2 年裡,我們改變了我們的產品組合,專注於高端和超高端品牌。我們已經出售了耐用消費品業務、大部分葡萄酒以及增長較慢類別的標準品牌。

  • We acquired much more premium brands like Casa Herradura, our 3 Single Malt Scotches, Slane Irish whiskey and Fords Gin. We continued efforts to premiumize our portfolio through the first half of fiscal '23 and with several new acquisitions and new strategic relationships.

    我們收購了更多優質品牌,例如 Casa Herradura、我們的 3 種單一麥芽蘇格蘭威士忌、斯萊恩愛爾蘭威士忌和福特杜松子酒。我們在 23 財年上半年繼續努力提升我們的投資組合,並進行了幾項新的收購和新的戰略關係。

  • First, we're very excited to welcome Gin Mare, a fast-growing ultra-premium gin and its recent line extension, Gin Mare Capri. Gin Mare is the world's #1 ultra-premium gin according to the most recent IWSR data and is sold in more than 70 countries. With the majority of sales in Europe, Gin Mare is the largest -- Gin Mare's largest market is Italy, followed by Germany, Spain and the travel retail channel. The brand will be a strong addition to our emerging brands portfolio, particularly in Europe, where its scale will be beneficial as we continue to build and expand a focused emerging brand sales group.

    首先,我們非常高興地歡迎 Gin Mare,這是一種快速增長的超優質杜松子酒及其最近的產品線延伸,Gin Mare Capri。根據最新的 IWSR 數據,Gin Mare 是世界排名第一的超優質杜松子酒,在 70 多個國家/地區銷售。 Gin Mare 的大部分銷售額在歐洲,是最大的——Gin Mare 最大的市場是意大利,其次是德國、西班牙和旅遊零售渠道。該品牌將成為我們新興品牌組合的有力補充,尤其是在歐洲,隨著我們繼續建立和擴大專注於新興品牌的銷售團隊,其規模將對歐洲有利。

  • We believe Gin Mare, at over 200,000 9-liter cases, has strong positioning and is complementary to Fords Gin and our broader super premium portfolio, and we're delighted is now part of the Brown-Forman family.

    我們相信 Gin Mare 擁有超過 200,000 箱 9 升裝,具有強大的定位,可以補充 Fords Gin 和我們更廣泛的超優質產品組合,我們很高興現在成為 Brown-Forman 家族的一員。

  • We're also looking forward to entering the rum category with Diplomatico Rum. Based on IWSR 2021 data, the super premium plus rum category has grown at an annual rate of 17% over the last 5 years, and Diplomatico was the #1 super-premium and ultra-premium rum.

    我們也期待與 Diplomatico 朗姆酒一起進入朗姆酒類別。根據 IWSR 2021 數據,超優質加朗姆酒類別在過去 5 年中以每年 17% 的速度增長,而 Diplomatico 是排名第一的超優質和超優質朗姆酒。

  • Diplomatico has a strong brand heritage, has reached significant scale in attractive geographies, it's growing quickly and has a strong margin profile. Similar to Gin Mare, the brand has a strong European presence, aligning well with our investment in owned distribution in markets such as France and Germany, which are Diplomatico's top 2 markets. It, too, will be part of our emerging brands portfolio in Europe as well as in the United States, which is the brand's third largest market.

    Diplomatico 擁有深厚的品牌傳統,在極具吸引力的地區取得了顯著的規模,發展迅速且利潤率高。與 Gin Mare 類似,該品牌在歐洲擁有強大的影響力,這與我們在法國和德國等市場的自有分銷投資非常吻合,這兩個市場是 Diplomatico 的兩大市場。它也將成為我們在歐洲和美國的新興品牌組合的一部分,美國是該品牌的第三大市場。

  • When considering the expansion of our portfolio, we look for acquisitions and partnerships that enhance our ability to deliver meaningful growth, improve key financial metrics and increase shareholder returns. We believe Gin Mare and Diplomatico Rum are well positioned to accomplish all 3 of these objectives. And with the addition of these 2 brands, Brown-Forman now owns 1 of the top 5 super premium plus brands globally and 4 strong growth categories, U.S. whiskey, tequila, gin and rum.

    在考慮擴大我們的投資組合時,我們尋求收購和合作夥伴關係,以增強我們實現有意義增長、改善關鍵財務指標和增加股東回報的能力。我們相信 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico Rum 有能力實現所有這 3 個目標。隨著這 2 個品牌的加入,Brown-Forman 現在擁有全球前 5 大超高端品牌中的 1 個以及 4 個增長強勁的品類,即美國威士忌、龍舌蘭酒、杜松子酒和朗姆酒。

  • In addition to these acquisitions, we're developing significant relationships that we believe can propel our growth. Our recently announced global agreement with the Coca-Cola Company to deliver the iconic Jack & Coke cocktail as a branded ready-to-drink adult beverage is an exciting play in an attractive category. The opportunity for the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD is significant, and we believe this will meaningfully expand the growth of both of our businesses.

    除了這些收購之外,我們還在發展我們認為可以推動我們發展的重要關係。我們最近宣布與可口可樂公司達成全球協議,提供標誌性的 Jack & Coke 雞尾酒作為品牌即飲成人飲料,這是一個有吸引力的類別中令人興奮的一幕。 Jack Daniel's 和 Coca-Cola RTD 的機會是巨大的,我們相信這將有意義地擴大我們兩家業務的增長。

  • With the successful launch of the Jack Daniel's and Coca-Cola RTD in November in Mexico, I want to thank the teams of Brown-Forman and Coca-Cola who worked to make the product launch a reality.

    隨著 Jack Daniel's 和可口可樂 RTD 於 11 月在墨西哥成功推出,我要感謝 Brown-Forman 和可口可樂的團隊,他們致力於使產品推出成為現實。

  • I would also like to take a moment to share a bit more about the significant opportunities we see within the RTD category. Based on IWSR 2021, the RTD category is a $39 billion business globally and is projected to grow in the high single digits with the Cocktail and long drink segment projected to grow even faster, delivering double-digit growth over the next 5 years.

    我還想花點時間分享更多關於我們在 RTD 類別中看到的重要機會。根據 IWSR 2021,RTD 類別在全球範圍內是一項價值 390 億美元的業務,預計將以高個位數增長,而雞尾酒和長飲部分預計增長更快,在未來 5 年實現兩位數增長。

  • We believe RTD cocktails address a distinct consumer occasion. And based on our results, we've not seen the growth of our RTD cocktails result in a decrease in our full strength products. In fact, we've experienced growth of both of our full strength in RTD products side by side, proving to be a net benefit. Jack Daniel's existing RTD products hold approximately share a 2.5% share of the global RTDs business and approximately 9% share of the cocktails and long drink segment.

    我們相信 RTD 雞尾酒適合不同的消費場合。根據我們的結果,我們沒有看到 RTD 雞尾酒的增長導致我們全濃度產品的減少。事實上,我們在 RTD 產品方面的全部實力都同時增長,證明是淨收益。 Jack Daniel 現有的 RTD 產品在全球 RTD 業務中佔有約 2.5% 的份額,在雞尾酒和長飲領域約佔 9% 的份額。

  • We believe there are numerous opportunities for geographic expansion and to gain share. Based on IWSR 2021, our current Jack Daniel's RTDs products have approximately 25% of the global and Cola business concentrated largely in 2 markets, Australia and Germany. That's a lot of runway for us to expand geographically. And of course, Coca-Cola is a wonderful company to work with because of the global reach of their bottling network and the strength of our iconic brands standing together beside ours.

    我們相信有許多地域擴張和獲得份額的機會。根據 IWSR 2021,我們目前的 Jack Daniel's RTDs 產品約佔全球的 25%,可樂業務主要集中在澳大利亞和德國這兩個市場。這是我們在地理上擴展的很多跑道。當然,可口可樂是一家非常適合合作的公司,因為他們的裝瓶網絡遍布全球,而且我們標誌性品牌的實力與我們並肩作戰。

  • We look forward to expanding in a number of key markets around the world in the first half of calendar 2023, including the large RTD markets of the U.S. and U.K. as well as additional selected European, Asian and Latin American markets, and I look forward to sharing more as these markets launch in the upcoming quarters.

    我們期待在 2023 年上半年在全球多個主要市場擴張,包括美國和英國的大型 RTD 市場以及其他選定的歐洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲市場,我期待著隨著這些市場在未來幾個季度推出,分享更多。

  • In addition to our relationship with Coca-Cola, in September, we announced a new multiyear global partnership making Jack Daniel's an official global sponsor of McLaren Racing, taking our iconic Tennessee Whiskey brand to the fastest-growing sport in the world, Formula One. Our partnership begins officially on January 1 for the 2023 racing season.

    除了我們與可口可樂的合作關係,我們還在 9 月宣布了一項新的多年全球合作夥伴關係,使 Jack Daniel's 成為邁凱倫賽車的官方全球贊助商,將我們標誌性的田納西威士忌品牌帶入世界上發展最快的運動——一級方程式賽車。我們的合作夥伴關係將於 2023 賽季的 1 月 1 日正式開始。

  • Appeal for Formula One continues to grow at the fastest rate of any major global sport with more than 1 billion fans and viewership that regularly exceeds that of the National Basketball Association, the NFL, the Premier League and the Champions League. The majority of the sports growth comes from the next generation of fans, providing a powerful opportunity to reach new consumers of legal drinking age and expand Jack Daniel's relevance in pop culture.

    一級方程式的吸引力繼續以最快的速度增長,擁有超過 10 億的粉絲和收視率,超過了美國國家籃球協會、美國國家橄欖球聯盟、英超聯賽和歐洲冠軍聯賽。體育運動的增長主要來自下一代粉絲,這為接觸達到法定飲酒年齡的新消費者和擴大 Jack Daniel 在流行文化中的相關性提供了強大的機會。

  • Identifying the right partner in this space was of paramount importance, and we believe we have found that in McLaren Racing. Our globally iconic brands share common values and commitments to responsibility and sustainability. This partnership is an important and high-profile global platform to promote responsible consumption and directly combat drunk driving. Jack Daniel's has a long track record of promoting responsible consumption of our products, and our responsibility message appears in all of our communications and promotional materials.

    在這個領域找到合適的合作夥伴至關重要,我們相信我們已經在邁凱倫賽車中找到了這一點。我們的全球標誌性品牌擁有共同的價值觀和對責任和可持續發展的承諾。這一夥伴關係是一個重要且備受矚目的全球平台,旨在促進負責任的消費和直接打擊酒後駕駛。 Jack Daniel's 在促進負責任地消費我們的產品方面有著悠久的記錄,我們的責任信息出現在我們所有的溝通和宣傳材料中。

  • We believe the new partnership with McLaren Racing and Formula One creates an exciting opportunity for Jack Daniel's to live boldly at every turn engaging a truly global fan base with races on most continents around the world.

    我們相信,與邁凱輪賽車和一級方程式賽車的新合作夥伴關係為傑克丹尼創造了一個激動人心的機會,讓傑克丹尼在每一個轉折點都能大膽地生活,在世界上大多數大陸的比賽中吸引真正的全球粉絲群。

  • In summary, we had a strong first half of fiscal '23 and continue to invest boldly behind our brands, our people and our long-term growth. The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment remains volatile and uncertain yet we remain optimistic and confident as we look ahead.

    總而言之,我們在 23 財年上半年表現強勁,並繼續大膽投資於我們的品牌、我們的員工和我們的長期增長。全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境仍然動盪和不確定,但我們對未來保持樂觀和信心。

  • At the heart is our performance ambition that is there will be nothing better in the market than Brown-Forman. This promise was on the very first bottles of Old Forester signed by George Garvin Brown, and it remains our pledge today across all aspects of our business. We often describe this ambition, not as a goal or a destination, but a way of thinking, a way of working and a way of making decisions. We have faced numerous economic, political and environmental challenges over the past 15 decades and it thrives because we have the agility and resilience to adapt and seize opportunities. We're 152-year-old company with a focused, yet agile strategy and a clear ambition, nothing better in the market.

    核心是我們的性能目標,即市場上沒有比 Brown-Forman 更好的產品了。這一承諾出現在喬治·加文·布朗 (George Garvin Brown) 簽署的第一瓶 Old Forester 酒上,至今仍是我們業務各個方面的承諾。我們經常將這種雄心壯志描述為一種思維方式、一種工作方式和一種決策方式。在過去的 15 年裡,我們面臨著無數的經濟、政治和環境挑戰,而這些挑戰之所以蓬勃發展,是因為我們擁有適應和抓住機遇的敏捷性和韌性。我們是一家擁有 152 年曆史的公司,擁有專注但靈活的戰略和明確的雄心,在市場上沒有比這更好的了。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Leanne, and she'll provide more details on our second quarter and first half results.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給 Leanne,她會提供更多關於我們第二季度和上半年業績的細節。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Lawson, and good morning, everyone. As Lawson reviewed our headlines for the first half of fiscal 2023, I will provide additional details on our business results and our outlook for the full year. First, I will share our top line results by geography for the first 6 months of fiscal 2023. The strong results were broad-based with each geographic cluster achieving double-digit organic net sales growth compared to the same period a year ago.

    謝謝勞森,大家早上好。在 Lawson 回顧我們 2023 財年上半年的頭條新聞時,我將提供有關我們的業務成果和全年展望的更多詳細信息。首先,我將按地域分享我們 2023 財年前 6 個月的最高業績。強勁的業績具有廣泛的基礎,與去年同期相比,每個地域集群都實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • The U.S. business accelerated through the first half, delivering organic net sales growth of 11%. This performance was driven by an estimated net increase in distributor inventories, price increases across the portfolio of brands, continued premiumization along with positive size and channel mix as well as innovation. Woodford Reserve was the largest contributor to organic net sales growth in the first half, with the positive impact from higher pricing and higher volumes as glass supply and capacity constraints eased, supporting our ability to better meet the strong consumer demand.

    美國業務在上半年加速增長,實現了 11% 的有機淨銷售額增長。這一業績是由分銷商庫存的估計淨增長、品牌組合的價格上漲、持續的高端化以及積極的規模和渠道組合以及創新推動的。 Woodford Reserve 是上半年有機淨銷售額增長的最大貢獻者,隨著玻璃供應和產能限制的緩解,價格上漲和銷量增加帶來了積極影響,支持我們更好地滿足強勁的消費者需求的能力。

  • The Jack Daniel's family of brands also contributed to the increase, led by volume growth from Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey. In addition, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire, Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey and Gentleman Jack experienced volumetric gains as they benefited from an improved supply chain environment. The newest members of the Jack Daniel's family, Jack Daniel's Bonded Tennessee Whiskey and Jack Daniel's Triple Mash Whiskey are the first 2 permanent super-premium expressions in almost a 1/4 of a century.

    Jack Daniel's 系列品牌也對銷量增長做出了貢獻,其中 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey 的銷量增長最為強勁。此外,Jack Daniel's Tennessee Fire、Jack Daniel's Tennessee Honey 和 Gentleman Jack 得益於供應鏈環境的改善,銷量也有所增長。 Jack Daniel 家族的最新成員 Jack Daniel's Bonded Tennessee Whiskey 和 Jack Daniel's Triple Mash Whiskey 是近 1/4 世紀以來的前 2 種永久性超優質威士忌。

  • These brands are off to a strong start as they continue to gain distribution and have been awarded multiple gold medals for taste and global spirits competition. Korbel California Champagne partially offset the growth of the rest of the portfolio. The sparkling wine category experienced significant growth during the pandemic, and the trends are beginning to normalize. The brand is benefiting from higher pricing, but that benefit is being more than offset by lower volume.

    這些品牌開局良好,因為它們繼續獲得分銷,並在口味和全球烈酒競賽中獲得多項金牌。 Korbel California Champagne 部分抵消了其餘產品組合的增長。起泡酒類別在大流行期間經歷了顯著增長,並且趨勢開始正常化。該品牌受益於更高的價格,但這種好處被銷量下降所抵消。

  • Off-premise takeaway trends continue to be impacted by the shift to the on-premise as consumers have made the gradual return to restaurants and bars, though trends are beginning to normalize. We see this in consumer mobility data, which has continued to hover around pre-pandemic levels. This channel shift along with account mix and supply chain impact are the main drivers of the difference between takeaway data and our actual results. As we have mentioned, we continue to work to rebuild finished goods inventory levels across the 3-tiered system, though we still believe distributor inventory levels remain below their pre-pandemic levels as consumer demand remains strong and transportation and logistics constraints persist.

    隨著消費者逐漸回歸餐廳和酒吧,場外外賣趨勢繼續受到轉向場內外賣的影響,儘管趨勢開始正常化。我們在消費者流動數據中看到了這一點,該數據一直徘徊在大流行前的水平附近。這種渠道轉移以及客戶組合和供應鏈影響是外賣數據與我們實際結果之間差異的主要驅動因素。正如我們所提到的,我們繼續努力重建整個 3 層系統的成品庫存水平,但我們仍然認為分銷商庫存水平仍低於大流行前的水平,因為消費者需求依然強勁,運輸和物流限制仍然存在。

  • Collectively, our emerging international markets continued to deliver very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, increasing 27% driven by Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey particularly in Turkey, Brazil, Sub-Sahara Africa and Poland. And RTDs, which had a strong performance with Jack Daniel's RTDs and New Mix growing strong double digits in Mexico, where we are gaining share in a growing category.

    總體而言,我們的新興國際市場繼續實現非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長,在傑克丹尼田納西威士忌的推動下增長了 27%,尤其是在土耳其、巴西、撒哈拉以南非洲和波蘭。 RTDs 在墨西哥的 Jack Daniel's RTDs 和 New Mix 表現強勁,增長強勁,兩位數,我們在不斷增長的類別中獲得份額。

  • This growth was partially offset by year-over-year declines in Russia due to the suspension of our commercial operations beginning in March of 2022. Developed international markets collectively delivered strong organic net sales growth, up double digits for the first half of the fiscal year, building on the double-digit growth in the same prior year period. While the inflationary environment is impacting consumer confidence, we have not observed signs of down trading and have been able to continue to increase price through our revenue growth management strategies.

    由於我們的商業運營從 2022 年 3 月開始暫停,俄羅斯的同比下降部分抵消了這一增長。發達的國際市場共同實現了強勁的有機淨銷售額增長,本財年上半年增長了兩位數,建立在去年同期兩位數增長的基礎上。雖然通貨膨脹環境正在影響消費者信心,但我們沒有觀察到交易下降的跡象,並且能夠通過我們的收入增長管理策略繼續提高價格。

  • Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey was the largest contributor to growth driven by Germany, where Jack Daniel's is gaining share within total spirits and the whiskey category. Spain, which is benefiting from the return of tourism and Korea as consumers shift to international whiskey brands. Momentum continued for Jack Daniel's RTDs with double-digit organic net sales growth led by Australia and Germany.

    傑克丹尼的田納西威士忌是德國推動增長的最大貢獻者,傑克丹尼在整體烈酒和威士忌類別中的份額正在增加。隨著消費者轉向國際威士忌品牌,西班牙受益於旅遊業的回歸和韓國。 Jack Daniel 的 RTD 繼續保持強勁勢頭,在澳大利亞和德國的帶動下實現了兩位數的有機淨銷售額增長。

  • Consumers' desire for convenience continues to propel interest in the RTD category in these markets, and we gained share. el Jimador, Woodford Reserve and GlenDronach, each delivered very strong double-digit organic net sales growth, driven by our emerging brands model which supports our strategic priority of increasing focus on our premium and super-premium portfolio.

    消費者對便利的渴望繼續推動這些市場對 RTD 類別的興趣,我們獲得了份額。 el Jimador、Woodford Reserve 和 GlenDronach,在我們新興品牌模式的推動下,各自實現了非常強勁的兩位數有機淨銷售額增長,這支持我們更加關注高端和超高端產品組合的戰略重點。

  • Route-to-market models play an important role, not only for our super premium portfolio, but also our core portfolio. Owned distribution can fuel share growth, strengthen our position, unlock future potential and enable us to capture more of the value chain just to name a few of the impacts.

    上市途徑模型發揮著重要作用,不僅對我們的超優質產品組合,而且對我們的核心產品組合也是如此。自有分銷可以推動份額增長,鞏固我們的地位,釋放未來潛力,並使我們能夠抓住價值鏈的更多部分,僅舉幾例影響。

  • Since transitioning to own distribution at the beginning of this calendar year, Belgium has more than doubled its organic net sales compared to the same period last year.

    自從今年年初過渡到自有分銷以來,比利時的有機淨銷售額與去年同期相比增長了一倍以上。

  • Finally, the travel retail channel, continuing its strong rebound, growing organic net sales 67% led by higher volumes across much of our portfolio as travel continued to rebound with the return of international airline travel and the cruise industry. Our business in this channel is quickly recovering and is close to returning to pre-COVID levels.

    最後,旅遊零售渠道繼續強勁反彈,有機淨銷售額增長 67%,這得益於我們大部分產品組合的銷量增加,因為隨著國際航空旅行和郵輪業的回歸,旅遊業繼續反彈。我們在這個渠道的業務正在迅速恢復,並接近恢復到 COVID 之前的水平。

  • As Lawson shared the details of our gross margin for the first half, I will now turn to our operating expenses. Organic advertising expenses in the first half compared to the same prior year period grew at a higher rate than our top line growth, largely due to the timing of our increased marketing investment in the United States to support Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Herradura, the launch of the Jack Daniel's Bonded Series and Woodford Reserve.

    在 Lawson 分享我們上半年毛利率的細節時,我現在將談談我們的運營費用。與上年同期相比,上半年有機廣告費用的增長速度高於我們的收入增長,這主要是由於我們增加了在美國的營銷投資以支持 Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey, Herradura 的推出傑克丹尼的保稅系列和伍德福德保護區。

  • Our organic SG&A investment increased double digits, driven primarily by higher compensation-related expenses and the investment behind our people as we are gradually returning to in-person events and activities in support of our collaborative culture and relationship-based industry. In total, reported and organic operating income grew 8% and 19%, respectively, in the first half of fiscal 2023. These results, combined with a decrease in our effective tax rate, resulted in an 11% diluted earnings per share increase to $0.99 per share.

    我們的有機 SG&A 投資增長了兩位數,這主要是由於與薪酬相關的費用增加以及我們的員工背後的投資,因為我們逐漸回歸現場活動,以支持我們的協作文化和基於關係的行業。總體而言,2023 財年上半年的報告營業收入和有機營業收入分別增長了 8% 和 19%。這些結果,加上我們有效稅率的下降,導致每股攤薄收益增加 11%,達到 0.99 美元每股。

  • And finally, to our updated fiscal 2023 outlook. We had a strong first half of fiscal 2023, with double-digit reported and organic net sales growth, driven by strong consumer demand and the rebuilding of distributor inventories as supply constraints eased. We remain confident in the collective growth of our U.S. developed and emerging international markets, along with the travel retail channel, as we have now cycled against the more volatile periods of the pandemic and believe we are seeing trends begin to normalize.

    最後,我們更新了 2023 財年展望。我們在 2023 財年上半年表現強勁,在強勁的消費者需求和供應限制緩解後經銷商庫存重建的推動下,實現了兩位數的報告和有機淨銷售額增長。我們對美國發達市場和新興國際市場以及旅遊零售渠道的集體增長仍然充滿信心,因為我們現在已經進入了大流行更加動蕩的時期,並且相信我們正在看到趨勢開始正常化。

  • We do remain cautious given the current volatility and uncertainty of the global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment as well as the potential impact of inflation and rising energy prices on consumer spending.

    鑑於當前全球宏觀經濟和地緣政治環境的波動性和不確定性,以及通脹和能源價格上漲對消費者支出的潛在影響,我們確實保持謹慎。

  • We believe the strength of our portfolio of brands, innovation, increased pricing and our strategic investments will enable continued growth through the reminder of the fiscal year, and therefore, we are raising our full year fiscal 2023 organic net sales growth guidance from the mid-single-digit range to the high single-digit range.

    我們相信,我們品牌組合的實力、創新、更高的定價和我們的戰略投資將通過本財年的提醒實現持續增長,因此,我們將 2023 財年全年的有機淨銷售額增長目標從中期上調個位數範圍到高個位數範圍。

  • As we have shared with you in previous quarters, I would like to reiterate that the seasonality of our fiscal 2023 results will be enacted by the abnormal seasonality of the fiscal 2022 shipments due to supply chain disruptions.

    正如我們在前幾個季度與您分享的那樣,我想重申,我們 2023 財年業績的季節性將由供應鏈中斷導致的 2022 財年出貨量異常季節性決定。

  • In the first half of fiscal 2022, distributor inventories did not increase ahead of the important holiday season, as is typical. And we experienced stronger shipments in the second half of fiscal 2022 as supply chain challenges began to ease. And as expected, in the first half of fiscal 2023 and distributor inventories continue to return to more normalized levels, which benefited our growth rate by 5 points. Our second half results will lap the increase in the net change in distributor inventory related to the rebuilding of our inventory position in the prior year period.

    在 2022 財年上半年,分銷商庫存並沒有像往常一樣在重要的假日季節之前增加。隨著供應鏈挑戰開始緩解,我們在 2022 財年下半年經歷了更強勁的出貨量。正如預期的那樣,在 2023 財年上半年,分銷商庫存繼續恢復到更正常的水平,這使我們的增長率提高了 5 個百分點。我們下半年的業績將反映與去年同期庫存狀況重建相關的分銷商庫存淨變化的增加。

  • As it relates to our fiscal 2023 cost, the inflationary environment continues to increase input costs ahead of our expectations and supply options, particularly transportation, logistics and freight remain challenging. As Lawson mentioned, we have taken proactive steps in the first half of the fiscal year to ensure our products would be on shelf ahead of the important holiday season to meet the strong consumer demand for our brands.

    由於與我們 2023 財年的成本相關,通貨膨脹環境繼續增加投入成本,超出我們的預期,供應選擇,尤其是運輸、物流和貨運仍然充滿挑戰。正如 Lawson 所提到的,我們在本財年上半年採取了積極措施,以確保我們的產品能夠在重要的假日季節之前上架,以滿足消費者對我們品牌的強勁需求。

  • We believe these investments support our top line growth, both in the short term and the long term. Additionally, we've noted the impact of foreign exchange on our reported first half results. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against many major currencies. Most notably, we are seeing the negative effect of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the euro, Turkish lira and pound sterling.

    我們相信這些投資支持我們的短期和長期收入增長。此外,我們注意到外匯對我們報告的上半年業績的影響。美元兌許多主要貨幣走強。最值得注意的是,我們看到了美元兌歐元、土耳其里拉和英鎊升值的負面影響。

  • While we are actively working to navigate these challenges and their impact, we believe the headwinds of inflation, supply chain disruption costs and foreign exchange will persist for the full year. Partially offsetting these headwinds, we continue to expect printing and the removal of the EU and U.K. tariffs on American whiskey to remain tailwinds for the full year.

    在我們積極應對這些挑戰及其影響的同時,我們相信通貨膨脹、供應鏈中斷成本和外彙的不利因素將持續一整年。為了部分抵消這些不利因素,我們繼續預計歐盟和英國對美國威士忌的印刷和取消關稅將在全年保持順風。

  • Based on the stronger-than-expected headwinds, we are updating our reported gross margin for the full year. We now project the reported gross margin for the full year to be consistent with the first half of fiscal 2023, primarily due to combined effects of higher input costs, negative foreign exchange and mitigation costs associated with supply chain challenges. For the last components of our outlook, the outlook for operating expenses remains the same. In addition to our philosophy of growing the investment behind our brands at a rate similar to our top line growth, we are reinvesting a portion of the EU and U.K. tariff relief back behind our brands. And we will also invest behind our people and expect a continued rebound of discretionary spend to support our business needs in a more normalized environment.

    基於強於預期的逆風,我們正在更新我們報告的全年毛利率。我們現在預計全年報告的毛利率將與 2023 財年上半年保持一致,這主要是由於更高的投入成本、負外彙和與供應鏈挑戰相關的緩解成本的綜合影響。對於我們展望的最後一個組成部分,運營費用的前景保持不變。除了我們以與我們的收入增長相似的速度增加我們品牌背後的投資的理念外,我們還將歐盟和英國的一部分關稅減免重新投資到我們的品牌背後。我們還將投資於我們的員工,並期待可自由支配支出的持續反彈,以支持我們在更加正常化的環境中的業務需求。

  • We firmly believe that investing in our brands and our people is the right approach to driving strong top and bottom line growth. Based on these expectations, we are also raising our full year fiscal 2023 organic operating income growth guidance from the mid-single-digit range to the high single-digit range.

    我們堅信投資於我們的品牌和我們的員工是推動強勁的收入和利潤增長的正確方法。基於這些預期,我們還將 2023 財年全年的有機營業收入增長預期從中個位數範圍提高到高個位數範圍。

  • Our fiscal 2023 effective tax rate guidance remains in the range of approximately 22% to 23%, and our capital expenditures are still planned to be in the range of $190 million to $210 million.

    我們 2023 財年的有效稅率指導仍保持在大約 22% 至 23% 的範圍內,我們的資本支出仍計劃在 1.9 億美元至 2.1 億美元的範圍內。

  • Before I conclude my remarks, I wanted to briefly highlight our long-standing capital allocation philosophy and how it has guided our actions against all 4 principal over the last 12 months. The first principal is to fully invest behind our business. In the last year, we increased capital investments to expand capacities to support the strong long-term demand of our brands, specifically in our Kentucky distilleries, tequila operations as well as our Glendronic distillery.

    在我結束髮言之前,我想簡要強調一下我們長期以來的資本配置理念,以及它如何指導我們在過去 12 個月中針對所有 4 位委託人採取的行動。第一個原則是充分投資於我們的業務。去年,我們增加了資本投資以擴大產能,以支持我們品牌的強勁長期需求,特別是在我們的肯塔基釀酒廠、龍舌蘭酒業務以及我們的 Glendronic 釀酒廠。

  • The second principle is to pay increasing regular dividends. As we announced on November 17, the Brown-Forman Board of Directors approved a 9% increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend. We are proud to be a member of the prestigious S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat Index, having paid regular quarterly cash dividends for 79 consecutive years and increase the regular dividend for 39 consecutive years.

    第二個原則是增加定期分紅。正如我們在 11 月 17 日宣布的那樣,Brown-Forman 董事會批准將常規季度現金股息增加 9%。我們很榮幸成為享有盛譽的標準普爾 500 股息貴族指數的成員,連續 79 年定期支付季度現金股息,並連續 39 年增加定期股息。

  • The third principle is to opportunistically look for acquisitions that we believe create long-term value. While the Gin Mare and Diplomatico Rum acquisition announcements came in quick succession, there has been no change to this guiding principle as timing is reliant on when an owner decides to make a brand available for sale.

    第三個原則是機會主義地尋找我們認為可以創造長期價值的收購。雖然 Gin Mare 和 Diplomatico Rum 的收購公告接二連三地發布,但這一指導原則沒有改變,因為時機取決於所有者決定何時出售品牌。

  • And finally, the fourth principle is to seek opportunities to return cash to shareholders in excess of regular dividends. As you will recall, last year, Brown-Forman's Board of Directors declared a special cash dividend of $1 per share or approximately $480 million on our Class A and Class B common stock.

    最後,第四項原則是尋找機會向股東返還超過定期股息的現金。您可能還記得,去年,Brown-Forman 的董事會宣布派發每股 1 美元的特別現金股息,即我們的 A 類和 B 類普通股的現金股息約為 4.8 億美元。

  • These are a few examples of our guiding principles and actions. Our capital allocation philosophy has allowed us to maintain a healthy balance sheet and has produced superior returns over the long term. We firmly believe our capital allocation philosophy, coupled with our strategic priorities, will continue to deliver strong results for our investors.

    這些是我們的指導原則和行動的幾個例子。我們的資本配置理念使我們能夠保持健康的資產負債表,並在長期內產生了豐厚的回報。我們堅信,我們的資本配置理念,加上我們的戰略重點,將繼續為我們的投資者帶來強勁的業績。

  • In summary, and as Lawson stated, the first half of fiscal 2023 was strong as we delivered double-digit top and bottom line organic growth. Despite near-term challenges and uncertainties, we continue to be agile as we identify ways to mitigate supply chain disruptions to satisfy consumer demand.

    總之,正如勞森所說,2023 財年上半年表現強勁,因為我們實現了兩位數的頂線和底線有機增長。儘管近期面臨挑戰和不確定性,但我們在尋找減輕供應鏈中斷以滿足消費者需求的方法時繼續保持敏捷。

  • We are confident if we use our strategy as our guide, stay true to our values and remain focused on delivering nothing better in the market, we will continue to navigate the ever changing market dynamics.

    我們有信心,如果我們以我們的戰略為指導,忠於我們的價值觀並繼續專注於在市場上提供更好的產品,我們將繼續駕馭不斷變化的市場動態。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. Please open the line for questions.

    我們準備好的發言到此結束。請打開問題熱線。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I hate to get granular, but it's the thing I'm getting kind of questions on most this morning is just around the guidance and trying to understand how the pieces fit together because we don't have visibility into currency. So I guess, first, gross margin outlook is worse, but raised the operating profit guidance. So can you just help us bridge those 2 dynamics? How we should be thinking about operating expenses and how we should think about FX and the impact on those metrics?

    我不想細化,但今天早上我收到的最多的問題是關於指導,並試圖理解這些部分是如何組合在一起的,因為我們不了解貨幣。所以我猜,首先,毛利率前景更糟,但提高了營業利潤指導。那麼你能幫我們彌合這兩種動力嗎?我們應該如何考慮運營費用以及我們應該如何考慮外匯及其對這些指標的影響?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • So I'll start at kind of the highest level and walk all the way through our kind of our gross margin component for the full year. And we still expect favorable tailwinds from stronger price positioning, the innovation, which we've launched with the Jack Series and Herradura Legend at that higher margin products. And of course, the removal of the EU and U.K. tariffs. Now the headwinds that we have been talking about remain the same, but they -- some of them have strengthened.

    因此,我將從最高級別開始,一路走過我們全年的毛利率部分。我們仍然期待更強大的價格定位帶來有利的順風,創新,我們已經推出了 Jack 系列和 Herradura Legend 的高利潤率產品。當然,還有取消歐盟和英國的關稅。現在,我們一直在談論的不利因素仍然存在,但它們——其中一些已經加強了。

  • Essentially, I'll start with inflation on our input cost. For FY '23, we did plan for our inflation on our input cost to be above historic norms. But the current levels on our commodities are beyond what we had expected. And the theme really is the key drivers of energy and fuel, it's everything it takes to make and move both our inputs and our finished goods. So just to give you a little bit of detail around that because I'm sure it's on everybody's mind.

    從本質上講,我將從投入成本的通貨膨脹開始。對於 23 財年,我們確實計劃讓我們的投入成本通脹高於歷史標準。但我們商品的當前水平超出了我們的預期。主題確實是能源和燃料的主要驅動力,它是製造和運輸我們的投入品和成品所需的一切。所以只是為了給你一些細節,因為我相信它在每個人的腦海中。

  • As it relates to our key components, our glass pricing continues to increase because of the commodities that it takes to produce it, which would be natural gas, diesel and fuel and labor. Freight, it's really the cost of fuel that continues to be very volatile, and the diesel prices are at all-time highs. We do see the continued imbalance of the equipment from the global freight and transportation system, and we expect that to continue throughout the full year.

    由於涉及我們的關鍵部件,我們的玻璃價格繼續上漲,因為生產它需要的商品包括天然氣、柴油、燃料和勞動力。運費,實際上是燃料成本繼續非常波動,柴油價格處於歷史高位。我們確實看到全球貨運和運輸系統的設備持續失衡,我們預計這種情況將持續到全年。

  • Natural gas, the prices are -- they remain elevated even though they did moderate as we got towards the end of our second quarter. And as it relates to grain, again, similar, elevated above what our expectation was and the freight cost to transport our grains to our facilities has increased.

    天然氣,價格 - 儘管在我們接近第二季度末時它們確實溫和,但它們仍然處於高位。與糧食有關,同樣,高於我們的預期,將糧食運輸到我們設施的運費增加了。

  • So moving that we are using many mitigation efforts as we look at these global logistics and transportation challenges, we, in this year and when we think about how we planned it, we had planned that, that imbalance of the equipment wouldn't be as significant as it was in the prior year, and we have found that it continues to be.

    如此令人感動,以至於我們在考慮這些全球物流和運輸挑戰時正在採取許多緩解措施,我們在今年以及當我們考慮我們如何計劃時,我們已經計劃好,設備的不平衡不會像與前一年一樣重要,我們發現它仍然如此。

  • So we've had to continue to use things such as airfreight and chartered vessels, working to try to get back to our normal shipping lanes as quickly as possible. But with the constraints that were in the environment and trying to get our products on the shelf for the important selling season, we made the decision to invest in those costs to make sure those products were there.

    因此,我們不得不繼續使用空運和包租船隻等方式,努力盡快恢復正常的航線。但由於環境的限制,並且我們試圖讓我們的產品在重要的銷售季節上架,我們決定投資這些成本以確保這些產品在那裡。

  • And then to our FX rate. Generally speaking, as you look at Brown-Forman over a long period of time, FX generally isn't a factor or a significant driver in our results as a U.S.-based company this year, it is. So as we think about the remainder of this fiscal year as it relates to our foreign exchange, we see a similar impact in the second half as we had in our first half, therefore, leading us to a full year outlook that our gross -- reported gross margin for the full year will be consistent with the rate that we have at the end of this first half.

    然後是我們的匯率。一般來說,當你長期觀察 Brown-Forman 時,外匯通常不是我們作為一家美國公司今年業績的一個因素或重要驅動因素,它是。因此,當我們考慮本財政年度剩餘時間與外彙的關係時,我們看到下半年的影響與上半年類似,因此,我們對全年的展望是,我們的毛——報告的全年毛利率將與我們上半年末的毛利率一致。

  • Now going to your second part of the question, with our strong top growth, Lawson, will talk about that. But we're continuing to invest from an operating expense perspective in line with our philosophies that we talked about in our prepared remarks. So Lawson?

    現在進入問題的第二部分,勞森將憑藉我們強勁的頂級增長來談論這一點。但我們將繼續根據我們在準備好的評論中談到的理念,從運營費用的角度進行投資。那麼勞森?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes, Lauren, was the question -- then about pricing?

    是的,勞倫,問題是——然後是關於定價?

  • Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Lauren Rae Lieberman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • The stronger top line growth.

    營收增長更強勁。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • The stronger top line growth. So I mean that's what -- I think, look, the top line organic numbers are very, very strong, and they have remained very strong. A lot of that is -- I do think the consumer is pretty healthy. I mean for all indications of our own business, we are not seeing any kind of trade down. In fact, we've actually seen stronger performance even at the higher end of our portfolio. So I mean even -- and I think to everyone I know is always interested in the U.S. If you look at the TDS figures in the U.S., you're still seeing premiumization as strong -- I don't know as strong as ever because -- but it's certainly continuing where the product, the $20, $30 and $40 and above are performing better than the lower value.

    營收增長更強勁。所以我的意思是——我認為,看,頂線有機數字非常非常強勁,而且它們一直非常強勁。其中很多 - 我確實認為消費者非常健康。我的意思是,就我們自己業務的所有跡象而言,我們沒有看到任何形式的交易下降。事實上,即使在我們投資組合的高端,我們實際上也看到了更強勁的表現。所以我的意思是,即使——我認為我認識的每個人都對美國感興趣。如果你看看美國的 TDS 數據,你仍然會看到高端化很強勁——我不知道是否像以往那樣強勁,因為-- 但它肯定會繼續存在,20 美元、30 美元和 40 美元及以上的產品表現優於較低價值的產品。

  • So you're not seeing the trade down that so many people have suspected would be coming through. I would say that's -- I don't know if it's global, but it's certainly more than just the U.S. We're just not seeing the weakened consumer yet.

    所以你沒有看到很多人懷疑會出現的交易下降。我想說的是——我不知道它是否是全球性的,但肯定不僅僅是美國。我們還沒有看到消費者疲軟。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • And the last thing I would add is we just continue to be really fortunate in an environment with the inflation on our commodities that we're seeing is that we have a very strong portfolio of premium and super premium brands that are better able to handle these pressures that we're seeing from the macro world.

    我要補充的最後一件事是,在我們所看到的商品通貨膨脹的環境中,我們仍然非常幸運,因為我們擁有非常強大的優質和超優質品牌組合,能夠更好地應對這些問題我們從宏觀世界看到的壓力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein with Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Robert Ottenstein。

  • Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

    Robert Edward Ottenstein - Senior MD, Head of Global Beverages and Household Products Research & Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Great. Wondering if you could talk a little bit more about Tequila. I think we all understand some of the supply issues. But it's had extraordinary growth. Is it moderating at all just in terms of what you think underlying demand is? And in your view, is rum potentially kind of the next tequila a few years out?

    偉大的。想知道你是否可以多談談龍舌蘭酒。我想我們都了解一些供應問題。但它有非凡的增長。就您認為的潛在需求而言,它是否有所緩和?在您看來,朗姆酒是否有可能成為幾年後的下一款龍舌蘭酒?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Let's hope so on that last one. So look, tequila. And now predominantly talking about the United States here. I mean we have had some comparisons that have been really, really difficult. And I think that's true across the category and some of the other brands that have had these extraordinary growth rates over the last few years. So that has something to do with it. But we have Herradura probably more than any other brand so far year-to-date, has been constrained by glass.

    讓我們希望最後一個。看,龍舌蘭酒。現在這裡主要談論美國。我的意思是我們進行了一些非常非常困難的比較。我認為在過去幾年中,整個品類和其他一些擁有如此驚人增長率的品牌都是如此。所以這與它有關。但今年迄今為止,我們擁有的 Herradura 可能比任何其他品牌都多,受到玻璃的限制。

  • It's gotten better over the last months, but it was really rough in this quarter. And so we are expecting to see improvement as we move throughout the year. The demand for the brand itself has been so strong in the last few years, but I don't really think it's -- I don't think it's so much a weakening in the category or a weakening of consumer demand. I do think it's mostly comps and then in our case, at least glass.

    過去幾個月情況有所好轉,但本季度確實很艱難。因此,我們期望在全年移動時看到改進。過去幾年對品牌本身的需求一直如此強勁,但我真的不認為這是——我不認為這是品類的減弱或消費者需求的減弱。我確實認為它主要是補償,然後在我們的情況下,至少是玻璃。

  • So I still believe it's going to be one of the fastest-growing categories over the next several years, and it's still -- we still feel like we have some of the best brands in the business. So -- and then, rum, we'll see. Super premium rum is growing very nicely now. It is growing really quickly in Europe.

    所以我仍然相信它會成為未來幾年增長最快的類別之一,而且它仍然 - 我們仍然覺得我們擁有一些業內最好的品牌。所以——然後,朗姆酒,我們拭目以待。超級優質朗姆酒現在增長非常好。它在歐洲發展得非常快。

  • So this is one of those acquisitions that really is much bigger in Europe than it is in the United States, which is kind of different than most of the acquisitions we've done over the last, say, 10 years.

    因此,這是歐洲真正比美國大得多的收購之一,這與我們在過去(比如 10 年)所做的大多數收購有點不同。

  • There's a lot of rum, particularly in Southern Europe, but really across Europe. So it's a big category. We've got one of the best brands, if not the best brands, at these higher price points. And it will be interesting to see what happens in the U.S. business. And does that become a tequila-like growth rate? It's hard to predict those things, but we're in a bet that we can grow and grow that brand into something pretty sizable in the U.S.

    有很多朗姆酒,尤其是在南歐,但整個歐洲都是如此。所以這是一個很大的類別。在這些更高的價位上,我們擁有最好的品牌之一,如果不是最好的品牌的話。看看美國企業會發生什麼將會很有趣。這會變成龍舌蘭酒般的增長率嗎?很難預測這些事情,但我們打賭我們可以將該品牌發展壯大為在美國相當可觀的品牌。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • So just, Leanne, maybe a clarification, just to follow up on Lauren's question, one clarification and then at another kind of question around just the FX piece. Just -- if we're looking at the -- you gave the impact or you said in the back half of the year, the impact of foreign exchange I guess, for the full year will be equal to what it's been for the first half on gross profits. Is that same -- does that flow through the P&L as well? So will the FX impact on operating income for the full year be similar to what it's been in the first half?

    所以,Leanne,也許是一個澄清,只是為了跟進 Lauren 的問題,一個澄清,然後是關於 FX 片的另一種問題。只是 - 如果我們正在看 - 你給出的影響或你在今年下半年所說的,我猜外彙的影響,全年將與上半年持平關於毛利。這是否相同 - 這是否也通過損益表流動?那麼,外匯對全年營業收入的影響是否會與上半年類似?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • Yes, it will flow down through the P&L.

    是的,它將通過損益表向下流動。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • Okay. And then just the gap, the fact that it's a much bigger impact on gross -- on operating income. Can you just kind of give us a little bit just why that gap is so much -- why the FX impact is so much greater on OI versus gross profit?

    好的。然後就是差距,事實上它對總營業收入的影響要大得多。你能不能給我們一點點說明為什麼這個差距如此之大——為什麼外匯對 OI 的影響比對毛利潤的影響要大得多?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • So I'll start at the top where our [strip] net sales, as we've reported, is negatively impacted by 6%. That's largely a translational impact, as we said, driven by the appreciation of the dollar against the ones -- the currencies that are specific to us, which are the euro, the Turkish lira and the pound sterling.

    因此,我將從頂部開始,正如我們所報告的那樣,我們的 [strip] 淨銷售額受到了 6% 的負面影響。正如我們所說,這在很大程度上是一種轉化影響,受美元兌美元升值的推動——我們特有的貨幣,即歐元、土耳其里拉和英鎊。

  • Gross margin we've already talked about was 140 basis points. That's a bit different than our top line impact because the majority of our products are produced inside of the United States.

    我們已經談到的毛利率是 140 個基點。這與我們的頂線影響有點不同,因為我們的大部分產品都是在美國境內生產的。

  • And then just flowing down through the rest of the P&L, it has an outsized a magnified impact as you move down just because it's on a smaller base. But there continues to be, as we have said before, no meaningful remeasurement or translational impacts. And we just -- it continues to be -- it hasn't been a factor for Brown-Forman for a period of time, a key driver. And hopefully, it's one that reverses, and we were not talking about that at some point in the future.

    然後向下流過損益表的其餘部分,當您向下移動時,它會產生巨大的放大影響,因為它位於較小的基數上。但是,正如我們之前所說,仍然沒有有意義的重新測量或轉化影響。我們只是 - 它仍然是 - 它在一段時間內一直不是 Brown-Forman 的一個因素,一個關鍵的驅動因素。希望它能逆轉,我們不會在未來的某個時候談論它。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Bryan, let me add on to it a little bit, too. The -- if you guys -- I would encourage everyone to look at Page 7 in our -- on the accompanying slide deck. I think it -- I mean, it lays it out pretty clearly. You can see in there that our price mix and tariffs offset the input costs. As bad as they were, we were calling away with price actions around the world, and then we knew about the tariff money. The killer on the gross margin has been the foreign exchange. So how that plays out the rest of the year, I mean, we will see. But yes, I mean this is an impact that obviously we didn't see coming.

    是的。布萊恩,讓我也補充一點。 - 如果你們 - 我會鼓勵大家看看我們的第 7 頁 - 在隨附的幻燈片上。我認為 - 我的意思是,它非常清楚地說明了這一點。你可以在那裡看到我們的價格組合和關稅抵消了投入成本。儘管情況很糟糕,但我們呼籲在全球範圍內採取價格行動,然後我們知道了關稅資金。毛利率的殺手是外匯。那麼今年餘下時間的表現如何,我的意思是,我們拭目以待。但是,是的,我的意思是這是一種我們顯然沒有預見到的影響。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • Yes. Lawson, because obviously I've got that. I was looking at the slide and trying to figure out what that looks like for the back half of the year. And I guess you've kind of maybe answered this question. But just the fact that so much of this is FX is why you wouldn't contemplate maybe raising prices or taking other actions to try to offset the margin pressure because it's really something you can't control. Is that the right way to think of it?

    是的。勞森,因為顯然我明白了。我正在查看幻燈片,並試圖弄清楚今年下半年的情況。我猜你可能已經回答了這個問題。但事實上,其中很大一部分是外匯,這就是為什麼你不會考慮提高價格或採取其他行動來試圖抵消利潤壓力的原因,因為這確實是你無法控制的。這是正確的思考方式嗎?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • That is a fair way to look at it. I mean I think on the pricing question, that's a good one. I mean as we've been talking about, I think, for the last 5 or 6 quarters, we've been trying to change the company's execution of pricing around the world. We -- I know you've been around long enough. I mean from 2000, the financial crisis was a really nice blend or balanced view, I guess, between volume and price.

    這是一個公平的看待它的方式。我的意思是我認為在定價問題上,這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是,正如我們一直在談論的那樣,我認為,在過去的 5 或 6 個季度中,我們一直在努力改變公司在全球範圍內的定價執行方式。我們 - 我知道你已經存在了足夠長的時間。我的意思是,從 2000 年開始,金融危機是一個非常好的混合或平衡視圖,我想,在數量和價格之間。

  • And then the financial crisis hit, and we went through 10 years in this industry with virtually no pricing. We're trying to change that dynamic inside the company right now, which involves -- we've said low single digit, that 2% to 3% range, but doing it pretty much everywhere every year. And so that -- and we're executing against that and successfully executing against it. And it's been something I think the groups are quite happy with. But that also means you don't turn around on a dime because of foreign exchange movement and try to do something significantly bigger or an input cost movement either.

    然後金融危機襲來,我們在這個行業度過了 10 年,幾乎沒有定價。我們現在正試圖改變公司內部的這種動態,這涉及——我們已經說過低個位數,即 2% 到 3% 的範圍,但每年幾乎所有地方都在這樣做。因此——我們正在執行並成功執行。我認為這些團體對此非常滿意。但這也意味著您不會因為外匯變動而立即轉身,並嘗試做更大的事情或投入成本變動。

  • So we're going to continue that steady climb. And hopefully, over the long run, that's what delivers the most value. At this point, we've -- as we've said, we've not chased away consumers through these price increases, which is obviously very good news. And we think we've kind of found the right level of what it takes to maximize sort of consumer demand.

    因此,我們將繼續穩步攀升。希望從長遠來看,這會帶來最大的價值。在這一點上,我們已經 - 正如我們所說的那樣,我們並沒有通過這些價格上漲來趕走消費者,這顯然是個好消息。我們認為我們已經找到了最大化消費者需求所需的正確水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Peter Grom with UBS..

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Peter Grom。

  • Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

    Peter K. Grom - Director of Equity Research & Analyst

  • So I guess I just wanted to make sure I'm understanding your response to both Bryan and Lauren's question. So just to be quite specific, I think in the schedule, foreign exchange was a 14-point headwind to operating income in the first half of the year. So if that's the same, does that more or less imply? Like is our math right that reported operating income is going to be down kind of in this mid-single-digit range? A, is that right?

    所以我想我只是想確保我理解你對 Bryan 和 Lauren 的問題的回應。因此,非常具體地說,我認為在時間表中,外匯對上半年的營業收入造成了 14 個百分點的不利影響。那麼,如果相同,這是否或多或少意味著?就像我們的數學正確,報告的營業收入將下降到這個中等個位數範圍內嗎? A,是嗎?

  • And then I guess just maybe I would love to ask about the implied organic sales guidance for the back half of the year. Can you maybe just remind us what your expectation is for distributor inventories? I know it was 500 basis points tailwind in the first half, but just any color on what you expect for the second half or full year would be helpful. And just -- because, I guess, in that context, the implied organic revenue growth to go from high single digits up to 17% in the first half is a pretty meaningful slowdown. So just any color on that would be really helpful.

    然後我想也許我想問一下今年下半年隱含的有機銷售指導。您能否提醒我們您對經銷商庫存的期望是什麼?我知道上半年有 500 個基點的順風,但只要你對下半年或全年的預期有任何顏色,都會有所幫助。而且只是 - 因為,我想,在這種情況下,隱含的有機收入增長從上半年的高個位數增長到 17% 是一個非常有意義的放緩。所以任何顏色都會非常有幫助。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Peter. And then I'll start with kind of the reminder of the seasonality of our growth, which is for -- our seasonality for fiscal '23 on the top line, it is going to be impacted by the abnormal seasonality of our 2022 shipments. And we all lived through that, which -- the first half of 2022 with glass supply constraints, we didn't build our inventory ahead of the holiday season, the way we typically do. And then when glass supply challenges began to ease in the second half of our fiscal year, we were able to increase the level of shipments out to the market.

    謝謝你,彼得。然後我會首先提醒我們增長的季節性,這是因為 - 我們在頂線的 23 財年的季節性,它將受到我們 2022 年出貨量異常季節性的影響。我們都經歷了這一點——2022 年上半年,由於玻璃供應受限,我們沒有像往常那樣在假期前建立庫存。然後,當我們財政年度下半年玻璃供應挑戰開始緩解時,我們能夠提高向市場的出貨量。

  • So then as we lap that in fiscal '23, we're continuing to work to rebuild our distributor inventories, as you noted. And you can see on Schedule D, our growth rate in the first half had a 5-point benefit on a year-over-year basis. And again, that second half of this year has to lap the very strong comparisons that we had last year related to our inventory rebuild.

    因此,正如您所指出的,當我們在 23 財年結束時,我們將繼續努力重建我們的分銷商庫存。你可以在附表 D 中看到,我們上半年的增長率同比增長了 5 個百分點。再一次,今年下半年必須對我們去年與庫存重建相關的非常強烈的比較進行比較。

  • So then going specifically to the rebuild efforts. Since we've been working on this, and we've said this last quarter, as we've been rebuilding inventory, we have continued to experience a very strong consumer demand, and we've launched new innovations. So while our inventory position is improving, there is still some brands and sizes that have to be replenished. So we do believe that inventory -- distributor and retailer inventories are below -- remain below pre-pandemic levels.

    因此,然後專門進行重建工作。自從我們一直致力於此,並且我們在上個季度說過,隨著我們一直在重建庫存,我們繼續感受到非常強勁的消費者需求,並且我們推出了新的創新。因此,雖然我們的庫存狀況正在改善,但仍有一些品牌和尺寸需要補充。因此,我們確實相信庫存——分銷商和零售商的庫存低於——仍低於大流行前的水平。

  • We're making progress on that. And at this point, to the extent that we can look out, we believe our target as far as a return to normal levels would be in the early part of F '24, and we'll talk more about that as we get closer to that fiscal year. But we expect it to remain through this fiscal year.

    我們正在這方面取得進展。在這一點上,就我們可以展望的範圍而言,我們相信我們的目標是在 F '24 的早期部分恢復到正常水平,我們會在接近那個財政年度。但我們預計它會持續到本財年。

  • And then to your other part of FX impact on OI, and we talked about how it flows down the outside. We continue to -- for the second half, we only guide on an organic basis, which wouldn't have that FX impact in there.

    然後是 FX 對 OI 的影響的其他部分,我們討論了它如何流向外部。我們繼續——下半年,我們只在有機的基礎上進行指導,這不會對外匯產生影響。

  • We are sharing that in this report that our estimate would be is like -- our assumption would be that the second half impact of foreign exchange would be similar to the impact of the first quarter -- first half, sorry.

    我們在這份報告中分享的是,我們的估計是——我們的假設是外匯下半年的影響將與第一季度的影響相似——抱歉,上半年。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Nadine Sarwat with Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Nadine Sarwat。

  • Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

    Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

  • So given your earlier commentary on gross margin headwinds for this year, I think that was very clear. I'd like to step back and actually focus on the long-term story. So how should we think about your gross margin development, given today's news over the next 1, 2, 3 years? Is there a way that you can quantify what you think you can achieve in terms of expansion in that time period? And then one question on the top line guidance. To what extent is there a downside risk on this stronger guidance from perhaps weaker volumes or mix if a recession were to come and the consumer were to weaken?

    因此,鑑於您之前對今年毛利率逆風的評論,我認為這非常明確。我想退後一步,真正專注於長期故事。那麼,鑑於未來 1、2、3 年的今天新聞,我們應該如何考慮您的毛利率發展?有沒有一種方法可以量化您認為在那段時間的擴張方面可以取得的成就?然後是關於頂線指導的一個問題。如果經濟衰退到來並且消費者疲軟,那麼這種更強的指導可能會在多大程度上存在下行風險?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • Nadine, as we've talked about before, on gross margin expansion, we have the entire company actively working on all elements of revenue growth management from pricing to effective promotions to all of the elements of [product size], distributor margins, and we are working significantly on our costs.

    納丁,正如我們之前談到的,在毛利率擴張方面,我們讓整個公司積極致力於收入增長管理的所有要素,從定價到有效促銷,再到 [產品規模]、經銷商利潤率的所有要素,我們正在顯著降低我們的成本。

  • As we look out, we continue to hope that the imbalance of the freight equipment will subside in this next kind of 1- to 3-year period so we can return to normal shipping lanes, which will have significantly less cost associated with that.

    當我們展望未來時,我們繼續希望貨運設備的不平衡將在接下來的 1 到 3 年內消退,這樣我們就可以恢復正常的航運航線,與此相關的成本將大大降低。

  • We've been 2 years now with that higher airfreight to get our products to market to continue to support consumer momentum.

    我們已經用了 2 年的高空運費將我們的產品推向市場以繼續支持消費者的勢頭。

  • FX, again, when we look back over our recent past, it hasn't been a key driver. We can't predict what's going to happen in that space, but we would say as we look over history, it generally isn't a key driver. And then inflation that -- we're working to do everything we can to mitigate those costs, but if they're being driven by the macroeconomic environment in which we're operating. And then I think...

    FX,再一次,當我們回顧我們最近的過去時,它並不是一個關鍵的驅動因素。我們無法預測該領域會發生什麼,但我們會說,回顧歷史,它通常不是關鍵驅動因素。然後是通貨膨脹——我們正在盡一切努力減輕這些成本,但前提是它們是由我們運營的宏觀經濟環境驅動的。然後我想...

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Let me add a little bit of color to the freight and logistics line, just to sort of everyone understands that. I mean if you -- if we back up 6 months, we were in the throes of some serious glass shortages. We still have some problems now, but it's certainly better. But back in the summertime, we're looking out at really European and international holiday season, we could see that we were not going to be able to get our product to market in the normal way that we do it.

    我給貨運物流這條線加點顏色,讓大家看得懂一點。我的意思是,如果你 - 如果我們備份 6 個月,我們正處於一些嚴重的玻璃短缺的痛苦之中。我們現在還有一些問題,但肯定好多了。但是回到夏季,我們正在關注真正的歐洲和國際假期,我們可以看到我們無法以正常方式將我們的產品推向市場。

  • And so we were kind of stuck in a corner and said, all right, we're either going to take on these literally tens of millions of dollars in freight expenses so that we can actually get our products on the shelf or just not sell it. And we chose the former, which I still think ultimately is the right long-term decision.

    所以我們有點被困在角落裡說,好吧,我們要么承擔這些數千萬美元的運費,這樣我們才能真正把我們的產品放在貨架上,要么乾脆不賣.而我們選擇了前者,我仍然認為這最終是正確的長期決定。

  • But back to your gross margin expectations going forward, we will not have -- I mean, gosh, I would hope we don't have those coming over the next -- really -- once we get through this holiday season, we hope to return to normal. It does feel like conditions are moving back towards a normal state again, and then -- so that will be a boost to the margin.

    但是回到你對未來毛利率的預期,我們不會 - 我的意思是,天哪,我希望我們不會在下一個 - 真的 - 一旦我們度過這個假期,我們希望恢復正常。確實感覺情況正在再次回到正常狀態,然後 - 所以這將提高利潤率。

  • Was there anything else?

    還有別的嗎?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • Top line and recession?

    頂線和衰退?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Oh. Was the question, Nadine, the sort of concern around...

    哦。問題是,納丁,周圍的那種擔憂……

  • Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

    Nadine Sarwat - Senior Research Associate

  • The question was on the top line guidance that you guys have taken up today. To what extent is there downside risk to that if the consumer were to weaken in a recessionary environment? Or did you guys build that into your assumptions when putting out this new guidance?

    問題是關於你們今天接受的最重要指導。如果消費者在經濟衰退的環境中疲軟,那麼下行風險有多大?或者你們在發布這個新指南時是否將其納入您的假設?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • To the extent that we could build in all of the assumptions that we were aware of with the trends and the information we have, it would have been built into the raising of our guidance.

    在某種程度上,我們可以將我們所了解的所有假設與我們所掌握的趨勢和信息結合起來,這將被納入我們的指導意見中。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • I mean I think I'd still argue. We feel pretty good about the consumer take away. While normalizing, if you look at any of the -- I mean, this is a U.S. comment, but the Nielsens and NABCA trends. But we -- as we've been saying all along here, we haven't seen the trade down. We haven't seen a weakness in consumer demand yet. I just don't -- I tend to believe that not only Brown-Forman, but this category of super premium spirits is an affordable luxury that is one people don't like to give up. And I think the combination of that with strong -- the wages remain strong, unemployment, all the other macro things that are working well. I think it's a relatively low risk.

    我的意思是我想我仍然會爭論。我們對消費者帶走感覺很好。在規範化的同時,如果你看一下任何——我的意思是,這是美國的評論,但尼爾森和 NABCA 的趨勢。但是我們——正如我們一直在這裡所說的那樣,我們沒有看到交易下降。我們還沒有看到消費者需求疲軟。我只是不——我傾向於相信,不僅是 Brown-Forman,而且這類超級優質烈酒是一種人們不願放棄的負擔得起的奢侈品。而且我認為這與強勁的結合 - 工資保持強勁,失業率以及所有其他運作良好的宏觀因素。我認為這是一個相對較低的風險。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kevin Grundy。

  • Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

    Kevin Michael Grundy - Senior VP & Equity Analyst

  • Lawson, I wanted to take a step back and ask about your ready-to-drink strategy. Just strategically, you've had a lot of success so far. And it seems like it's going to increasingly become a bigger part of your portfolio as well as your peers. How do you think about it within the portfolio? How do you think about margin implications relative to the base portfolio? It certainly will be negative from a mix perspective. But just broader thoughts on how this is going to evolve within the portfolio? How do you attempt to limit cannibalization and maybe some updated thoughts on the Jack & Coke RTD?

    勞森,我想退一步問一下你的即飲策略。就戰略而言,到目前為止你已經取得了很大的成功。而且它似乎將越來越多地成為您和您的同行投資組合中更大的一部分。你如何看待投資組合中的它?您如何看待與基礎投資組合相關的利潤率影響?從混合的角度來看,這肯定是負面的。但只是關於這將如何在投資組合中演變的更廣泛的想法?您如何嘗試限制自相殘殺以及對 Jack & Coke RTD 的一些最新想法?

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. So I mean that's obviously -- the story right now is the Jack & Cola RTD, which just launched in Mexico a few weeks ago. So obviously, only in the first few days of launch, but moving.

    是的。所以我的意思是很明顯——現在的故事是 Jack & Cola RTD,它幾週前剛剛在墨西哥推出。很明顯,僅在發布的前幾天,但令人感動。

  • Yes, we remain very excited and very optimistic on what we can do in this category. RTDs, obviously, if you look at the U.S. trends, RTD -- spirit-based RTDs are flying driven by a few very big brands. And we hope to join those ranks over the next year.

    是的,我們仍然對我們在這個類別中能做的事情感到非常興奮和樂觀。 RTDs,顯然,如果你看一下美國的趨勢,RTD——基於精神的 RTDs 在一些非常大的品牌的推動下飛速發展。我們希望在明年加入這些行列。

  • We'll be launching in the first half of 2023 in the U.S., in the U.K. and then a handful of different European and Asian markets. Now just to make sure everyone -- I don't know how much of this we've given out. In the U.S., in Germany and Australia, Brown-Forman will be doing the sales, and that is a bit margin dilutive if RTDs were to get massive. Now Germany and Australia are already really big businesses.

    我們將於 2023 年上半年在美國、英國推出,然後在幾個不同的歐洲和亞洲市場推出。現在只是為了確保每個人——我不知道我們已經分發了多少。在美國、德國和澳大利亞,Brown-Forman 將負責銷售,如果 RTD 變得龐大,這會有點稀釋利潤。現在德國和澳大利亞已經是真正的大企業了。

  • And so moving forward, we don't expect a lot of dilution from that -- from those markets. But when you get to the rest of the world, it's different. Coca-Cola is doing the sales, and we're selling bulk. And so that is not a dilutive margin.

    因此,展望未來,我們預計不會從這些市場中稀釋很多。但是當你到達世界其他地方時,情況就不同了。可口可樂負責銷售,而我們是批量銷售。因此,這不是稀釋利潤。

  • So it's mixed as to how that's going to look going forward. But at the end of the day, these are brands that we really believe are the -- Jack & Cola brand is something that we very much believe in as a long-term play with really nice growth look at it.

    因此,對於未來將如何發展,情況喜憂參半。但歸根結底,這些是我們真正相信的品牌——Jack & Cola 品牌是我們非常相信的品牌,作為一個長期的遊戲,它的增長非常好。

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • And then what I would add to that is -- and I know you're aware of this. I mean we've had -- we've been in business for 30-plus years. We have had over 20 million cases of that volume in our sales mix. And it's going to depend on a market-by-market basis, but we don't see a significant impact to our long-term company margin over a period of time because, again, in a way, we'll be transitioning some of this business from the Jack & Cola business that we have, which again, we -- this is an attractive opportunity for us to continue to increase our geographic reach and to gain share and to potentially even premiumize the product.

    然後我要補充的是——我知道你知道這一點。我的意思是我們已經 - 我們已經經營了 30 多年。我們的銷售組合中有超過 2000 萬箱這樣的數量。這將取決於逐個市場的基礎,但我們認為在一段時間內不會對我們的長期公司利潤率產生重大影響,因為在某種程度上,我們將再次過渡一些這項業務來自我們擁有的 Jack & Cola 業務,這再次對我們來說是一個有吸引力的機會,可以繼續擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍並獲得份額,甚至有可能使產品優質化。

  • And again, we believe it has a halo effect on our full strength brand, and that halo effect will now be extended into geographies where we haven't had the opportunity to kind of get our product there before.

    再一次,我們相信它對我們的全實力品牌有光環效應,而光環效應現在將擴展到我們以前沒有機會在那裡獲得產品的地區。

  • Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

    Lawson E. Whiting - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. That's a reference a lot of it is to the emerging markets around the world where we're just small. So take on Africa, just to pick one big continent that has a hard time affording a full bottle of Jack Daniel's. Well, this is a totally different offering and something that we think can be scaled up and be a pretty big opportunity. But then, as Leanne said, becomes a sort of a halo effect on the rest of the brand. It just -- it develops a lot more awareness because you've got that can in a hand in a market that we think can be very, very big.

    是的。這是一個參考,其中很多是對我們規模很小的世界新興市場的參考。因此,以非洲為例,選擇一個很難買得起一整瓶傑克丹尼威士忌的大洲。好吧,這是一個完全不同的產品,我們認為可以擴大規模並成為一個相當大的機會。但是,正如 Leanne 所說,這對品牌的其他部分產生了一種光環效應。它只是 - 它提高了更多的意識,因為你可以在我們認為可能非常非常大的市場中掌握這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Nik Modi with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Nik Modi。

  • Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

    Sunil Harshad Modi - MD of Tobacco, Household Products and Beverages & Lead Consumer Staples Analyst

  • Lawson, I was hoping maybe you could just provide an update on where the glass situation stands? Because it seems like not just in spirits companies, but companies outside of spirits, like the fragrance companies are having a big challenge right now with glass availability and supply. And I'm just curious kind of do you think it might get worse? Will it impinge your ability to rebuild inventories the way you're expecting? And if not, how are you securing this glass when I know a lot of your competitors are still struggling?

    勞森,我希望你能提供有關玻璃情況的最新情況嗎?因為似乎不僅是烈酒公司,烈酒以外的公司,比如香水公司,現在都面臨著玻璃可用性和供應方面的巨大挑戰。我只是好奇你認為它會變得更糟嗎?它會影響您按照預期方式重建庫存的能力嗎?如果沒有,當我知道你的很多競爭對手仍在苦苦掙扎時,你如何保護這塊玻璃?

  • Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

    Leanne D. Cunningham - Senior VP & CFO

  • So I'll start with that one from a glass supply perspective. I think you heard us say multiple times throughout our prepared remarks is that our glass supply constraints are easing. So maybe we were just early in the cycle of constraints, but we have done and had the opportunity to really actively work with our current suppliers, and we've increased our capacity. They've improved their yield. And we've also worked closely with them for prioritization of our products on their lines.

    所以我將從玻璃供應的角度開始。我想你在我們準備好的發言中多次聽到我們說我們的玻璃供應限制正在放鬆。因此,也許我們只是處於限制循環的早期,但我們已經完成並有機會真正積極地與我們現有的供應商合作,並且我們已經提高了我們的能力。他們提高了產量。我們還與他們密切合作,確定我們產品在他們生產線上的優先級。

  • We've also taken the opportunity, like you've heard us say, is to broaden our supplier base. We've been able to do that both inside of the United States as well as internationally. And that -- so largely for us, it's easing. We do have some spaces where we are still facing constraints, as Lawson talked about that, that would be Herradura in Mexico. And we have plan in action for increased supply that we're bringing online in this fiscal year.

    我們也抓住了這個機會,就像你聽到我們說的那樣,是為了擴大我們的供應商基礎。我們已經能夠在美國國內和國際上做到這一點。而且——對我們來說,這在很大程度上是放鬆的。正如 Lawson 所說,我們確實有一些空間仍然面臨限制,那就是墨西哥的 Herradura。我們已經制定了增加供應的行動計劃,我們將在本財年上線。

  • So all in all, for us, we believe we are kind of moving beyond -- we're still living with and moving beyond glass supply constraints. And you can see in the growth of Woodford Reserve and Gentleman Jack, how they have responded to that easing of that constraint and returning back to very strong growth. And then now moving more into the global logistic challenges of the world.

    所以總而言之,對我們來說,我們相信我們正在超越——我們仍然生活在並超越玻璃供應限制。你可以在 Woodford Reserve 和 Gentleman Jack 的增長中看到,他們如何應對這種限制的放鬆並恢復非常強勁的增長。然後現在更多地進入世界的全球物流挑戰。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our time for questions has ended. I would now like to turn the call back over to Sue Perram for any closing remarks.

    我們的提問時間已經結束。我現在想將電話轉回給 Sue Perram 以聽取任何結束語。

  • Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

    Susanne J. Perram - Director of IR

  • Well, thank you. And thank you, Lawson and Leanne, and thank you to everyone for joining us today for Brown-Forman's Second Quarter and First Half of Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. If you have any additional questions, please contact us. To wrap up today's call, we would like to offer you a toast, to the spirit of the season and a vibrant New Year. Cheers to everyone. With that, this concludes our call.

    嗯,謝謝。感謝 Lawson 和 Leanne,感謝大家今天加入我們,參加 Brown-Forman 的 2023 財年第二季度和上半年收益電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題,請聯繫我們。為了結束今天的電話會議,我們想為這個季節的精神和充滿活力的新年干杯。為大家乾杯。至此,我們的電話就此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。