Barclays PLC (BCS) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Barclays' Q1 2026 results analysts and investor conference call. I will now hand over to C.S. Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, before I hand over to Anna Cross, Group Finance Director.

歡迎參加巴克萊 2026 年第一季業績分析師與投資人電話會議。接下來我將先交由集團行政總裁 C.S. Venkatakrishnan 發言，之後再交由集團財務總監 Anna Cross。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Barclays' first quarter 2026 results call. In February, I shared our vision for 2028 and beyond, and this was to deliver a better run, more strongly performing and higher returning Barclays. This represented an intensification of the strategy, which we put in place in 2024. The first quarter results demonstrate the benefits of the structural improvements that we have been making in the last two years.

各位早安。感謝各位參加巴克萊 2026 年第一季業績電話會議。2 月我分享了我們對 2028 年及更長遠的願景：打造一家營運更佳、表現更強、回報更高的巴克萊。這代表我們在 2024 年制定的策略上進一步加速推進。第一季的結果展現了我們過去兩年所推動結構性改善所帶來的效益。

These improvements allowed us to capture opportunities within each of our five divisions and particularly in the investment bank. The diversification of our income, the strength of our client relationships, the ongoing delivery of operational efficiency all underpin my confidence in achieving each of our 2026 and 2028 targets.

這些改善使我們得以在五大事業部門各自把握機會，尤其是在投資銀行方面。我們收入來源的多元化、客戶關係的穩固，以及持續推動營運效率的成果，皆支撐我對達成 2026 年與 2028 年各項目標的信心。

We have delivered a group RoTE of 13.5% in the quarter. This demonstrates resilience through a period of elevated volatility and incorporates one-off impairments and charges. We grew the top line by 6% to GBP8.2 billion, supported by NII growth and strong activity across the Investment Bank. We improved the cost-to-income ratio to 56%. RWAs in the Investment Bank increased modestly versus the fourth quarter to facilitate cyclical activity with income surpassing GBP4 billion for the first time.

本季我們實現集團有形股東權益報酬率（RoTE）13.5%。這顯示在波動性偏高的期間仍具韌性，並已納入一次性減損與費用。我們營收（top line）成長 6% 至 82 億英鎊，受惠於淨利息收入（NII）成長以及投資銀行各項業務活動強勁。我們將成本收入比改善至 56%。投資銀行的風險加權資產（RWA）較第四季小幅上升，以支援景氣循環性活動，且收入首次突破 40 億英鎊。

Consistent capital generation and a 14.1% CET1 ratio supports our plan to return at least GBP15 billion to shareholders by 2028, including today's GBP500 million buyback announcement. While the external environment has changed, we remain true to our purpose, which is to work together with our clients for a better financial future. We remain committed to deploying lending and risk-weighted assets in our UK businesses. We do not currently see any credit weakness in the UK or in our US consumer business nor in corporate lending. UK household and corporate balance sheets remain robust and clients are behaving rationally.

穩健的資本生成與 14.1% 的普通股權益第一類資本比率（CET1）支撐我們在 2028 年前至少回饋股東 150 億英鎊的計畫，其中包含今日宣布的 5 億英鎊庫藏股回購。儘管外部環境已改變，我們仍忠於自身使命：與客戶攜手共創更好的金融未來。我們仍致力於在英國業務中配置放款與風險加權資產。目前我們在英國、在美國消費金融業務，以及在企業放款方面，均未看到任何信用走弱跡象。英國家庭與企業資產負債表仍然穩健，客戶行為也保持理性。

And payment rates across customer cohorts in our US consumer bank remains stable. However, as you would expect, we are vigilant about the inflationary impact of rising energy prices and the consequent potential decline in consumption and growth. This quarter, we have provided additional disclosures on our exposure to private credit and nonbank financial institutions. This is on slides 45 and 46 in the appendix.

同時，我們美國消費金融銀行各客群的還款率仍維持穩定。然而，如各位所預期，我們對能源價格上升帶來的通膨影響，以及其可能導致消費與成長下滑的風險保持警覺。本季我們也就私募信貸（private credit）與非銀行金融機構（nonbank financial institutions）的曝險提供了更多揭露，詳見附錄第 45 與 46 頁投影片。

I am disappointed to recognize a GBP228 million single name charge in the first quarter. This was in our securitized products business and relates to a well-publicized sophisticated fraud. This fraud, as with the one in tricolor indicates to us the importance of strong financial controls at borrowers and the difficulty ex ante of identify and fraud. As such, we are constraining lending to certain structured finance counterparties who operate more vulnerable business models and cannot convince us of the quality and independence of their financial controls. These entities neither represent a material exposure nor a material source of foregone income, but their risk far outweighs any reward.

我很遺憾地指出，我們在第一季認列了 2.28 億英鎊的單一名稱（single name）費用。這發生在我們的證券化產品業務，並與一宗廣為報導、手法精密的詐欺案相關。此詐欺案（如同 tricolor 的案例）讓我們更清楚看到：借款人必須具備強健的財務控管，而事前要辨識詐欺的困難度很高。因此，我們正收緊對部分結構性融資交易對手的放款，這些對手方的商業模式較脆弱，且無法令我們信服其財務控管的品質與獨立性。這些實體既非重大曝險，也非重大收入來源；但其風險遠大於任何回報。

Separately, in view of increased macroeconomic and business uncertainties, we are reducing our exposure to more highly leveraged non-investment grade corporates, which we believe could be vulnerable to a weakening economy.

另外，鑑於宏觀經濟與商業不確定性上升，我們正降低對高槓桿、非投資級企業的曝險；我們認為這些企業在經濟轉弱時可能較為脆弱。

All divisions generated double-digit returns, including an RoTE around or above 20% in our UK businesses, and the US Consumer Bank and the Investment Bank delivered 18.8% and 15% RoTE, respectively. We are achieving stronger structural returns by delivering operational improvements and better customer sets. In the first quarter, we achieved approximately GBP150 million of gross efficiency savings towards the GBP2 billion target over three years.

所有事業部門皆創造雙位數回報，其中英國業務的 RoTE 約在或高於 20%；美國消費金融銀行與投資銀行的 RoTE 分別為 18.8% 與 15%。我們透過營運改善與更優質的客群組合，正實現更強的結構性回報。第一季我們達成約 1.5 億英鎊的總效率節省，朝三年 20 億英鎊目標邁進。

This quarter, we have enabled all corporate banking clients on iPortal, which is our single management platform, and this replaces five previously separate platforms. And in the second quarter, we will launch Premier Wealth Management in Barclays UK app to provide human-led digitally enabled planning and advice and support fee growth beyond 2028. The momentum of our progress underpins my confidence in delivering all our financial targets including an RoTE of greater than 12% in 2026 and more than 14% in 2028.

本季我們已讓所有企業銀行客戶啟用 iPortal（我們的單一管理平台），取代先前五個彼此分離的平台。第二季我們將在 Barclays UK App 推出「尊尚財富管理」（Premier Wealth Management），提供以專人為主導、數位賦能的規劃、建議與服務，以支援 2028 年後的費用收入成長。我們推進成果的動能，支撐我對達成所有財務目標的信心，包括 2026 年 RoTE 高於 12%，以及 2028 年高於 14%。

Anna, over to you now to take us through the first quarter financials in more detail.

Anna，接下來交給你，請你帶我們更詳細地檢視第一季財務表現。

Thank you, Venkat, and good morning, everyone. Slide 4 summarizes the financial highlights for the quarter. Before going into the detail, I would remind you that the weaker US dollar versus Q1 '25 reduced our reported income, costs and impairments. Return on tangible equity of 13.5% was lower year-on-year, with stronger absolute earnings offset by 8% growth in tangible equity. Profit before impairment increased 8% as we grew income and delivered positive operating jaws. This was offset by higher impairment charges with profit before tax up 3%.

謝謝你，Venkat，各位早安。第 4 頁投影片總結了本季的財務重點。在進入細節之前，我想提醒各位：相較於 2025 年第一季，美元走弱使我們所報告的收入、成本與減損金額降低。有形股東權益報酬率（RoTE）13.5% 較去年同期下降，主因是有形股東權益成長 8% 抵銷了更強的絕對獲利。減損前獲利隨著收入成長並實現正向營運剪刀差（operating jaws）而增加 8%；但較高的減損費用抵銷部分增幅，使稅前獲利增加 3%。

Earnings per share increased by 8% to 14.1p supported by share count reduction. Operational momentum continues, and we remain focused on execution. Income in Q1 increased 6% year-on-year to GBP8.2 billion. Stable income streams grew by 7% reflecting 4% growth in the retail and corporate businesses and a 23% increase in financing within markets. Overall investment banking income was up 4%. This top line momentum increases our confidence in delivering the circa GBP31 billion group income target in '26.

每股盈餘（EPS）在股數減少的支持下成長 8% 至 14.1 便士。營運動能持續，我們仍專注於執行。第一季收入年增 6% 至 82 億英鎊。穩定型收入來源成長 7%，反映零售與企業業務成長 4%，以及市場業務中的融資收入增加 23%。整體投資銀行收入成長 4%。這股營收動能提升我們對 2026 年集團約 310 億英鎊收入目標的信心。

Group NII, excluding IB and head office, increased for the eighth consecutive quarter and by 12% year-on-year, reflecting three factors. First, stable deposits across the group supported structural hedge growth at yields above our planning assumption. Second, continued lending momentum. And third, improvements in US consumer banks funding, mix and pricing. We, therefore, remain confident in delivering full year guidance for group NII of more than GBP13.5 billion, including GBP8.1 billion to GBP8.3 billion in Barclays UK.

集團淨利息收入（NII）（不含投資銀行與總部）連續第八季上升，且年增 12%，主要反映三項因素。第一，集團存款維持穩定，支撐結構性避險（structural hedge）在高於我們規劃假設的殖利率下成長。第二，放款動能持續。第三，美國消費金融銀行在資金來源、結構與定價方面的改善。因此，我們仍有信心達成全年集團 NII 指引：高於 135 億英鎊，其中 Barclays UK 為 81 億至 83 億英鎊。

As a reminder, the hedge is designed to reduce income volatility and manage interest rate risk. We have now locked in GBP18.3 billion of gross structural hedge income across '26 to '28, up from GBP16.8 billion at the end of '25. The hedge notional increased by GBP6 billion versus Q4, reflecting stability and growth in our deposit franchises and equity. This improves long-term NII stability but does not materially increase '26 income given the unhedged balances were previously earning base rates. We invested new and maturing hedge assets at around 3.9% in the quarter.

提醒各位，該避險設計旨在降低收入波動並管理利率風險。我們目前已鎖定 2026 至 2028 年合計 183 億英鎊的結構性避險總收入（gross structural hedge income），高於 2025 年底的 168 億英鎊。避險名目金額較第四季增加 60 億英鎊，反映我們存款業務與權益的穩定與成長。這提升了長期 NII 的穩定性，但由於先前未避險部位原本就賺取基準利率，因此對 2026 年收入不會造成重大增加。本季我們以約 3.9% 的利率投資新增及到期再投資的避險資產。

This is above the circa 3.5% planning assumption that underpins half of the group income growth that we expect by '28. While persistently higher swap rates would support additional income growth, any benefit would build progressively noting that 95% of '26 hedge income is already locked in.

此水準高於約 3.5% 的規劃假設；該假設支撐我們預期至 2028 年集團收入成長的一半。若交換利率（swap rates）持續維持較高水準，將支持額外的收入成長；但任何效益都將逐步累積，且需注意 2026 年避險收入已有 95% 鎖定。

Moving on to costs. The group cost-to-income ratio improved to 56% from 57% a year earlier. We delivered circa GBP150 million of gross efficiency savings on track for the circa GBP2 billion target over three years. Investment costs increased by around GBP100 million year-on-year, consistent with our plan. Q1 costs also included a GBP105 million motor finance provision. This is booked in head office, given that we exited this business in 2019.

接著談成本。集團成本收入比較去年同期的 57% 改善至 56%。我們實現約 1.5 億英鎊的總效率節省，符合三年約 20 億英鎊目標的進度。投資性成本年增約 1 億英鎊，與我們的計畫一致。第一季成本亦包含 1.05 億英鎊的汽車融資準備金（motor finance provision）。由於我們已於 2019 年退出該業務，因此此項目記錄於總部。

Our GBP430 million cumulative provision is based on a single scenario aligned to the FCA's revised industry-wide redress scheme. This assumes a greater number of eligible cases versus the previous probability-weighted estimate and a higher cost per claim following increases to the compensatory interest rate. Inclusive of the motor finance provision, we remain well positioned to deliver the high 50s cost-income ratio target in '26.

我們累計 4.3 億英鎊的準備金係基於單一情境，並與英國金融行為監理總署（FCA）修訂後的全產業補償（redress）方案一致。該情境假設符合資格的案件數量高於先前以機率加權估計的結果，且因補償性利息利率上調，使每件索賠成本更高。即使納入汽車融資準備金，我們仍具備良好條件在 2026 年達成成本收入比「高 50% 區間」的目標。

Turning to impairment. The Q1 group impairment charge of GBP823 million equated to a loan loss rate of 74 basis points. This includes the GBP228 million well-publicized single name charge in the investment bank, which Venkat discussed.

再來看減損。第一季集團減損費用為 8.23 億英鎊，相當於 74 個基點的貸款損失率（loan loss rate）。其中包含投資銀行 2.28 億英鎊、廣為報導的單一名稱費用，Venkat 先前已提及。

As a result, we now expect a group loan loss rate around the top of the 50 to 60 basis points through the cycle guidance in 2026. UK and US consumer and corporate balance sheets are robust with a low and stable delinquencies and rational borrower behavior and the overwhelming majority of the investment bank's wholesale clients are performing as we expected. As an accounting matter, IFRS 9 models are procyclical and sensitive to changes in consensus economic expectations.

因此，我們目前預期 2026 年集團貸款損失率將落在「穿越景氣循環」指引 50 至 60 個基點區間的上緣附近。英國與美國的消費金融與企業客戶資產負債表穩健，逾期率（delinquencies）低且穩定，借款人行為理性；而投資銀行的絕大多數批發客戶（wholesale clients）表現亦符合我們預期。就會計處理而言，IFRS 9 模型具有順週期性（procyclical），並對市場共識的經濟預期變化相當敏感。

In the quarter, we have made three post model adjustments that amount to a net GBP20 million increase for the group. First, we released the post-model adjustment for US tariff uncertainty from Q1 '25 in the investment bank and US Consumer Bank. Second, we made a post-model adjustment in the investment bank to recognize downside bias due to uncertainty. Third, we adjusted UK and US consumer impairment model inputs to reflect a more prudent view of consensus economic forecasts, including 5.3% UK unemployment versus 5.2% previously.

本季我們進行了三項模型後調整（PMA），合計使集團淨增加2,000萬英鎊。第一，我們在投資銀行與美國消費銀行，釋放了自'25年第一季以來針對美國關稅不確定性的模型後調整。第二，我們在投資銀行進行模型後調整，以反映因不確定性所導致的下行偏誤。第三，我們調整了英國與美國消費者減損模型的輸入參數，以反映對共識經濟預測更為審慎的觀點，包括英國失業率為5.3%，高於先前的5.2%。

The Barclays UK loan loss rate was nevertheless in line with the circa 30 bps guidance we gave in Q4. Focusing on the US consumer bank where consumer behavior remains resilient, as we show on slide 42 in the appendix. 30-day and 90-day delinquencies increased modestly to 3.1% and 1.7%, respectively, mainly due to the seasoning of the General Motors portfolio, which will normalize in future quarters.

儘管如此，Barclays UK 的貸款損失率仍與我們在第四季給出的約30個基點指引一致。聚焦於美國消費銀行（消費者行為仍具韌性），如我們在附錄第42頁投影片所示。30天與90天逾期率分別小幅上升至3.1%與1.7%，主要由於通用汽車（General Motors, GM）投資組合進入成熟期（seasoning），未來幾季將趨於正常化。

Looking ahead, we expect the American Airlines portfolio exit in Q2 to increase 30-day and 90-day delinquency rates by circa 30 bps and 20 bps, respectively. The Q1 loan loss rate fell to 491 basis points, reflecting better-than-expected credit quality of the GM portfolio and the net PMA release. As a reminder, we expect a circa 550 basis point loan loss rate in '26.

展望未來，我們預期第二季退出美國航空（American Airlines）投資組合，將使30天與90天逾期率分別上升約30個基點與20個基點。第一季貸款損失率降至491個基點，反映GM投資組合的信用品質優於預期，以及PMA淨釋放。提醒一下，我們預期'26年的貸款損失率約為550個基點。

Turning now to UK lending. UK lending grew 5% year-on-year, consistent with the '25 exit rate and the more than 5% CAGR we expect from '25 to '28. We remain on track to deploy circa GBP30 billion of UK business growth RWAs by the end of '26 having deployed GBP22 billion since '24. We grew mortgage lending by GBP1.7 billion. Completions moderated versus last year's elevated level in the run-up to stamp duty changes in April '25. Application volumes increased materially as customers sought to lock in rates in a volatile environment, facilitated by broker platform improvements and Kensington.

接著談英國放款。英國放款年增5%，與'25年的退出增速一致，也符合我們對'25至'28年超過5%年複合成長率（CAGR）的預期。我們仍按計畫在'26年底前部署約300億英鎊的英國業務成長風險加權資產（RWA），自'24以來已部署220億英鎊。我們的房貸放款增加17億英鎊。由於去年在'25年4月印花稅（stamp duty）變更前的高峰期帶動，交屋量相較之下有所降溫。在波動環境下，客戶希望鎖定利率，使申請量大幅增加；這得益於經紀平台改善以及Kensington。

We also added 364,000 new card customers in the quarter and grew balances 8% year-on-year. Core Business Banking grew for a fifth consecutive quarter, while UK corporate loans grew for a sixth consecutive quarter and by 15% year-on-year, split evenly between new and existing clients.

本季我們亦新增36.4萬名信用卡新客戶，餘額年增8%。核心商業銀行（Core Business Banking）連續第五季成長；同時英國企業貸款連續第六季成長，且年增15%，新增與既有客戶各占一半。

Turning to Barclays UK in more detail. You can see financial highlights on slide 13, but I will talk to slide 14. RoTE increased year-on-year to 19.7%. NII of GBP2 billion increased 9% year-on-year and fell 1% quarter-on-quarter as guided. This mainly reflected two fewer days in Q1 versus Q4 with NIM stable. Lower product margins reflect deposit mix and pricing and part of the circa GBP100 million headwind that we guided to at full year.

接著更詳細說明Barclays UK。你可以在第13頁投影片看到財務重點，但我將說明第14頁。RoTE年增至19.7%。淨利息收入（NII）為20億英鎊，年增9%，並如指引所示季減1%。這主要反映第一季較第四季少了兩天，而淨利差（NIM）維持穩定。產品利差較低反映存款組合與定價，以及我們所指引全年約1億英鎊逆風的一部分。

We now expect NII to increase quarter-on-quarter from Q2 with year-on-year growth in every quarter. The Q2 product margin impact will be broadly similar to Q1, and I expect additional structural hedge income following the increase in national that I referenced earlier.

我們目前預期自第二季起NII將季增，且每一季都將呈現年增。第二季產品利差的影響將大致與第一季相近；此外，隨著我先前提到的名目（national）上升，我預期結構性避險收入將進一步增加。

Non-NII increased to GBP272 million, with the Q2 level expected to be around GBP250 million following a securitization in April. Cost of GBP1.2 billion increased 5% year-on-year due to structural cost actions, which we expect to be weighted to half one in contrast to last year. We expect half two costs to be below half one, supporting lower costs than '26 versus '25 and a low 50s cost-to-income ratio.

非NII增至2.72億英鎊；由於4月進行一筆證券化，預期第二季水準約為2.5億英鎊。成本為12億英鎊，年增5%，主因結構性成本措施；相較去年，我們預期成本增幅將更偏向上半年。預期下半年成本將低於上半年，支持'26年成本低於'25年，並使成本收入比維持在50%出頭的水準。

Moving on to the Barclays UK balance sheet. Deposit balances were seasonally lower versus Q4. Wage growth supported stable current account balances despite seasonality. We took share in pricing selectively in a competitive market, including to attract and deepen premier customer relationships. Lending grew for the seventh consecutive quarter and by 4% year-on-year.

接著看Barclays UK資產負債表。存款餘額因季節性因素較第四季偏低。薪資成長支撐活期帳戶餘額在季節性影響下仍保持穩定。我們在競爭激烈的市場中選擇性地以定價取得市占，包括用以吸引並深化尊榮（premier）客戶關係。放款連續第七季成長，且年增4%。

Moving to the UK Corporate Bank. Q1 ROCE increased to 19.9%. Income grew by 10% and costs fell 2%, and the cost/income ratio improved to 48%. NII increased 15% driven by volume growth and additional structural hedge income with the fall versus Q4 mainly due to day count. Strong lending momentum continued and supported deposit growth of 3% year-on-year and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 35%, up 4-percentage-points versus Q1 '25.

轉到英國企業銀行（UK Corporate Bank）。第一季ROCE升至19.9%。收入成長10%、成本下降2%，成本收入比改善至48%。NII年增15%，由放款量成長與結構性避險收入增加所帶動；相較第四季的下降主要是天數因素。強勁的放款動能延續，並支撐存款年增3%，貸存比為35%，較'25年第一季上升4個百分點。

As Venkat referenced, all UK corporate clients are now enabled on iPortal with full migration expected during 2026. This will improve efficiency over time and broaden product usage supporting fee growth beyond '28.

如Venkat所提及，所有英國企業客戶現已在iPortal上啟用，預期將於2026年完成全面遷移。這將隨時間提升效率，並擴大產品使用，支持'28年以後的費用收入成長。

Turning to Private Bank and Wealth Management. Q1 ROTE was 25.5%. Income was broadly stable, while costs increased 9% year-on-year, as we accelerated investment which we expect to build quarter-on-quarter through '26. We added GBP1.5 billion of net new AUM in the quarter. Despite adverse market valuation effects in Q1, AUM increased by 8% year-on-year, and client assets and liabilities grew 5%. We expect new capabilities and products such as the premier wealth management service launch in Q2 to drive growth over time.

接著談私人銀行與財富管理（Private Bank and Wealth Management）。第一季ROTE為25.5%。收入大致持平，而成本年增9%，因我們加速投資，預期將一路季增至'26年。本季我們新增淨流入資產管理規模（AUM）15億英鎊。儘管第一季市場估值效應不利，AUM仍年增8%，客戶資產與負債合計成長5%。我們預期新能力與新產品（例如第二季推出的尊榮財富管理服務）將隨時間推動成長。

Turning now to the Investment Bank. Our strategy in this division is to drive consistent returns through RWA discipline, income stability and operating leverage, that remains unchanged. We have now delivered eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year income growth, RWA productivity improvements and positive operating jaws. Targeted investments have improved the diversification of our income, which I will return to, and we are increasing the durability of returns by growing more stable income streams in financing and international corporate bank.

現在轉到投資銀行（Investment Bank）。本部門策略是透過RWA紀律、收入穩定性與營運槓桿來推動一致的報酬，這一點維持不變。我們已連續八季實現收入年增、RWA生產力改善，以及正向的營運剪刀差（operating jaws）。有針對性的投資改善了收入多元化（我稍後會再回到這點），並且我們正透過擴大融資與國際企業銀行中更穩定的收入來源，提升報酬的持久性。

These structural improvements enable the IB to participate in stronger seasonal and cyclical activity in Q1. We grew RWAs by 3% versus Q4 to support this activity. We did this in a disciplined way with income to average RWAs increasing to 8% and no increase in risk appetite as we show on slide 38 in the appendix. Investment Bank RoTE was 15% in Q1. Lower returns versus last year reflects the GBP228 million single name impairment charge and two fair value moves in the corporate lending line, a GBP105 million gain on leveraged finance last Q1 versus GBP40 million of marks this Q1.

這些結構性改善使投資銀行能在第一季參與更強的季節性與景氣循環活動。我們將RWA較第四季增加3%以支撐這些活動。我們以紀律方式進行：平均RWA的收入比提升至8%，且風險偏好未增加，如我們在附錄第38頁投影片所示。投資銀行第一季RoTE為15%。相較去年報酬較低，反映2.28億英鎊的單一名稱減損費用，以及企業放款線的兩項公允價值變動：去年第一季槓桿融資有1.05億英鎊收益，而本季第一季僅有4,000萬英鎊的評價變動（marks）。

Operational performance was as we would have expected given the environment with income growing by 4% year-on-year. We performed well in areas of historic strength with investments supporting growth and diversification as we planned. This includes growth in advisory and ECM with around three-quarters of fees in the quarter earned in the US and equities which account for 28% of income versus 22% in '23.

在此環境下，營運表現符合我們的預期，收入年增4%。我們在歷史強項領域表現良好，且投資如計畫般支持成長與多元化，包括顧問業務與股權資本市場（ECM）成長，本季約四分之三的費用收入來自美國；以及股票業務，其收入占比由'23年的22%提升至28%。

In the international corporate bank, US dollar deposits grew by 21% year-on-year and we continue to expect the ICB to become a larger part of the IB by '28, reflecting ongoing investment in transaction banking. Using the US dollar figures, markets income was up 13% year-on-year. Equities and FICC grew 23% and 8%, respectively. We saw particular strength in equity derivatives and prime alongside strong credit and securitized product trading in FICC.

在國際企業銀行（ICB）方面，美元存款年增21%；我們仍預期到'28年ICB將成為投資銀行中更大的一部分，反映我們持續投資交易銀行業務。以美元口徑計算，市場業務收入年增13%。其中股票與FICC分別成長23%與8%。我們在股票衍生品與主經紀（prime）方面表現尤為強勁；同時FICC中的信用與證券化產品交易亦表現強勁。

Intermediation activity grew 6% year-on-year, while financing income grew 31% and for the seventh consecutive quarter. This reflected growth in client balances, particularly in Prime, including strong growth in Asia. Investment banking fees increased 25%. The strong pipeline we discussed at the full year and improved deal economics supported 89% advisory fee growth. We took leading positions in three of the four largest global deals in Q1, and the M&A pipeline remains robust, with the share of announced deal volumes due to complete in '26 increasing year-on-year. ECM fees increased 38%, and we have a solid IPO pipeline for the rest of the year.

中介（intermediation）活動年增6%；融資收入年增31%，且已連續第七季成長。這反映客戶餘額成長，尤其是Prime，包含亞洲的強勁成長。投資銀行費用收入增加25%。我們在全年所討論的強勁案源（pipeline）以及改善的交易經濟性，支撐顧問費用成長89%。第一季我們在全球四筆最大交易中的三筆取得領先地位；併購（M&A）案源仍然穩健，且預計於'26年完成的已公告交易量占比年增。ECM費用成長38%，且我們在今年剩餘時間仍有穩健的IPO案源。

Turning to the US Consumer Bank. Operational performance is on track, and we expect further progress portfolio changes in Q2. We grew receivables by 9% year-on-year. Half of this was organic with the remainder from the addition of GM, rebalancing the mix of assets towards retail. While the accounting changes I outlined at the full year explain most of the increase in NIM versus Q4, pricing, asset mix and funding continue to drive improvements. We are pleased with the ongoing pace of retail deposit gathering where balances increased 8% quarter-on-quarter and 52% since end '23.

最後談美國消費銀行（US Consumer Bank）。營運表現按計畫推進，我們預期第二季投資組合變動將帶來進一步進展。應收款年增9%；其中一半為有機成長，其餘來自納入GM，使資產組合更偏向零售。雖然我在全年所概述的會計變更解釋了相較第四季NIM上升的大部分原因，但定價、資產組合與資金來源仍持續推動改善。我們對零售存款募集的持續速度感到滿意，餘額季增8%，且自'23年底以來增加52%。

The improvement in ROCE to 18.8% reflected this operational progress. Returns also benefited from a full quarter of income from the AA portfolio without the associated marketing costs. In US dollar terms, income grew 21% and costs were broadly flat. We continue to expect a mid-40s cost-to-income ratio in '26.

ROCE 改善至 18.8% 反映了這項營運進展。回報亦受惠於 AA 投資組合整季的收入貢獻，且不再承擔相關行銷成本。以美元計，收入成長 21%，成本大致持平。我們仍預期在 '26 年的成本收入比約為 40% 中段。

Given portfolio changes in Q2, let me help with some modeling points. The exit of AA, which we completed on April 24, will increase NIM to more than 13% for FY26, approaching 14% in half two. This will more than offset an expected increase in the loan loss rate to circa 550 basis points for '26, as guided last quarter. Total income in Q1 provides a good starting point for the rest of the year with a loss of AA income, largely offset by the addition of and some business growth.

鑑於第二季的投資組合變動，我補充幾點建模重點。我們已於 4 月 24 日完成退出 AA，這將使 FY26 的 NIM 提升至 13% 以上，並在下半年接近 14%。這將足以抵銷我們預期 '26 年貸款損失率上升至約 550 個基點（如上季所指引）。第一季的總收入為今年其餘期間提供了良好起點；AA 收入的流失大致可由新增項目及部分業務成長所抵銷。

Income in Q2 will include a circa $300 million gain on sale, less than prior guidance of circa $400 million given lower balances at the point of sale. In addition, we expect incremental monthly costs of circa $45 million from Best Egg, which we expect to complete in early May. All in, we continue to expect a circa 12% ROTE for '26, excluding the AA gain on sale.

第二季收入將包含約 3 億美元的出售收益；由於出售時點的餘額較低，該收益低於先前指引的約 4 億美元。此外，我們預期 Best Egg 將帶來每月約 4,500 萬美元的增量成本，並預計於 5 月初完成。綜合而言，在排除 AA 出售收益後，我們仍預期 '26 年 ROTE 約為 12%。

We ended the quarter with a robust CET1 ratio of 14.1% consistent with our intention to operate around the top of our 13% to 14% CET1 range. Strong organic capital generation of 53 basis points was in line with expectations, supporting distributions and balance sheet flexibility to invest in market opportunities. The $500 million share buyback for Q1 and $500 million accrual towards this year's 2 billion dividend of both as planned. RWAs increased 8 billion quarter-on-quarter, including 2.7 billion of growth in the three UK businesses. Excluding FX, Investment Bank RWAs increased 3.3 billion to support the stronger activity that I referenced earlier.

本季末我們的 CET1 比率穩健達 14.1%，符合我們將營運水準維持在 13% 至 14% CET1 區間上緣的意圖。強勁的有機資本生成為 53 個基點，符合預期，支持股東分配並提供資產負債表彈性以投資市場機會。第一季 5 億美元庫藏股回購，以及為今年 20 億股利所提列的 5 億美元應計，皆按計畫進行。RWA 季增 80 億，其中 27 億來自英國三項業務的成長。若排除匯率影響，投資銀行 RWA 增加 33 億至支撐我先前提及的更強勁活動。

As usual, a word on our overall liquidity and funding on slide 29. We have strong and diverse funding, including a 75% LDR and an NSFR of 135%, and we are highly liquid across currencies with an LCR of 165%. These measures reflect purposeful and prudent management of our balance sheet, delivering resilience, thus ensuring we have capacity to support customers in a range of economic environments. TNAV per share decreased 4p in the quarter but increased 33p year-on-year to 405p.

如常，我在第 29 頁簡要說明整體流動性與資金來源。我們擁有強勁且多元的資金結構，包括 75% 的 LDR 與 135% 的 NSFR；同時我們在各幣別均具高度流動性，LCR 為 165%。這些指標反映我們對資產負債表有目的且審慎的管理，帶來韌性，確保在各種經濟環境下都有能力支持客戶。每股 TNAV 本季下降 4 便士，但年增 33 便士至 405 便士。

Attributable profit added 14p per share in Q1. This was partially offset by the 6p final dividend paid on 31 March versus April in prior years. Higher interest rates reduced the cash flow hedge reserve driving an 11p reduction in TNAV versus Q4. This is a timing matter and will unwind positively through to 2028 or if interest rates revert to lower levels. TNAV per share growth from Q2 will be overwhelmingly driven by earnings, assuming broadly stable long-term interest rates from here.

第一季歸屬利潤使每股增加 14 便士。這部分被 3 月 31 日支付的 6 便士期末股利所抵銷（過去年度多在 4 月支付）。利率上升降低了現金流避險準備，導致 TNAV 較第四季減少 11 便士。這屬於時間性因素，將在 2028 年前逐步正向回轉，或在利率回落至較低水準時回轉。自第二季起，每股 TNAV 的成長將主要由獲利驅動，前提是長端利率大致維持穩定。

To summarize, operational progress since '23 provides a strong foundation to deliver all group targets in '26 and '28 in a range of environments.

總結而言，自 '23 年以來的營運進展為我們在各種環境下於 '26 與 '28 年達成集團所有目標奠定了堅實基礎。

Over to you, Venkat, for concluding remarks.

接下來交給你，Venkat，做結語。

The momentum of operational improvements, which we have delivered during the first two years of our plan have continued during the first quarter of 2026. While the environment has become more uncertain, the strength of our businesses and the diversification that they provide allows us to navigate volatility while delivering our plan and targets.

我們在計畫前兩年所交付的營運改善動能，在 2026 年第一季持續延伸。儘管環境變得更不確定，我們業務的實力以及其所提供的多元化，使我們能在波動中前行，同時交付我們的計畫與目標。

I'll now open to questions-and-answers. (Event Instructions) Please also introduce yourself as you ask your questions.

我現在開放問答。（活動指引）提問時也請先自我介紹。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指引）

Alvaro Serrano, Morgan Stanley.

Alvaro Serrano，摩根士丹利。

Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Venkat, maybe this one is starting for you on -- you made the comments that you've reduced the risk appetite or pulled back I can't remember exactly what you used on slightly higher leverage and some structured products. Can you give us a bit more color of the concrete measures you've taken? And maybe speak to slide 45 and thanks very much for that disclosure in which areas you pulled back a bit? And should we think about any impact on revenues from that sort of reduced risk appetite?

我是摩根士丹利的 Alvaro Serrano。Venkat，這題可能先請你回答——你提到你們降低了風險偏好或有所收縮（我不太記得你用的確切措辭），針對略高槓桿以及部分結構性產品。能否更具體說明你們採取了哪些實際措施？也請談談第 45 頁，謝謝你們在那裡的揭露：你們在哪些領域稍微收縮了一些？我們是否應該預期這種降低風險偏好會對營收造成任何影響？

And the second question is on the UK or broadly NII outlook. Obviously, rates are high now and you've locked in an extra -- in the outer years extra sort of hedge income, as you've disclosed and has spoken to. When you think about the increment, the high yield versus entry slowdown in loan growth and volume growth, do you think there's upside to NII if you were to mark-to-market sort of the current curves maybe you're more thinking on flexing your NII guidance?

第二個問題是關於英國或更廣泛的 NII 展望。顯然目前利率偏高，而你們也如揭露與說明所示，在較遠期鎖定了額外的避險收入。當你們思考增量時，在高收益與貸款成長、量的成長放緩之間，你們是否認為若以目前利率曲線做 mark-to-market，NII 可能有上行空間？也就是說，你們是否更傾向於調整（flex）你們的 NII 指引？

Yes. So let me start with your first question, and I'll hand it over to Anna for the second question. So we said in the statement that the impact is not material, either today or foregone income in the future. And where it would be on slide 45 is basically in that third box, which says other commercial and consumer, that's where you're likely to see the GBP17 billion, that's where you're likely to see lending to business models that are basically themselves asset-backed lenders and who are more vulnerable business models and where we may not find the strength of financial controls, we'd like to see them demonstrate. That's really the place where in the structured financing exposure, we would expect to see some limitations. But as I said in the prepared remarks, it's not material now is a source of income nor forgone income in the future. Anna?

好的。我先回答你的第一個問題，第二個問題我會交給 Anna。正如我們在聲明中所說，影響並不重大，無論是目前或未來可能放棄的收入。若對應到第 45 頁，基本上是在第三個方框，也就是「其他商業與消費者」那一欄；你很可能會在那裡看到 170 億英鎊，主要是對一些商業模式本身屬於資產擔保放款人的授信，這些商業模式較為脆弱；以及在我們希望看到其展現的財務控制強度方面，可能未必達標的對象。這確實是我們在結構性融資曝險上預期會有所限制的地方。但如我在事先準備的發言中所說，無論是目前的收入來源或未來放棄的收入，都不具重大性。Anna？

Thank you. Thanks, Alvaro, for the question. Given the experience that we've had in Q1, we are more confident now on NII than we were at the full year because the actual experience that we've had in Q1 is either positive or neutral, and I'm very comfortable with consensus for '26, both for the group and for Barclays UK. As I look a little further out into '27 and '28 that consensus looks light. We said the same at full year, it looks very light in '28.

謝謝。謝謝你，Alvaro，提問。基於我們在第一季的實際經驗，我們現在對 NII 的信心比全年時更高，因為第一季的實際表現不是正面就是中性。我對 '26 年市場共識非常有信心，無論是集團層面或 Barclays UK。當我把視野再往外看至 '27 與 '28 年時，那些共識看起來偏保守。我們在全年時也說過同樣的話，'28 年看起來特別偏保守。

So what we've observed in Q1 is actually a good deposit performance, so current accounts in BUK have been broadly flat. Ordinarily, we would see a seasonal decline in Q1. We've had a good season where we grew faster than the market. You can see good lending growth across the piece, 5% pretty much on the target that we've given you. Our US CB NIM is a little higher than we guided to at 12.8 and of course, as I said, we've topped up the hedge by GBP6 billion, and we've rolled it in the quarter at around 3.9%.

我們在第一季觀察到的是良好的存款表現，因此 BUK 的活期存款（current accounts）大致持平。一般而言，我們會在第一季看到季節性下滑。我們這一季表現良好，成長速度快於市場。你也可以看到整體放款成長良好，約 5%，基本上符合我們給你的目標。我們的美國 CB NIM 略高於指引，達 12.8%；當然，如我所說，我們把避險部位再加碼了 60 億英鎊，並在本季以約 3.9% 的水準進行展期（roll）。

Now this change in rates is really about the future years. We are still basing the guidance that we're giving you on 3.5% to the extent that we see rates remaining higher, obviously, that will build through time, and you'll see the impact a little further out. And I'd just remind you that our hedge income for 2026 is at 95% locked in already. So our confidence is really coming from the real factors that we see in both deposits and in lending.

目前這次利率變動主要影響的是未來年度。我們仍以 3.5% 作為給你們指引的基礎；若利率維持在較高水準，影響會隨時間逐步反映，你會在更遠期看到效果。我也提醒一下，我們 2026 年的避險收入已有 95% 鎖定。因此，我們的信心主要來自我們在存款與放款兩方面看到的實際因素。

To your point about slowdown in lending, we have not seen a slowdown in lending. We see it growing strongly both in BUK across the products, also in corporates. And for the first time, we're seeing some really good signs of growth within business banking. And that's driven by our own actions. We're not reliant on the market.

至於你提到放款放緩的問題，我們並未看到放款放緩。我們看到 BUK 各產品線以及企業端的放款都在強勁成長。而且我們首次在商業銀行（business banking）看到一些非常好的成長跡象，這是由我們自身行動所驅動，我們並不依賴市場。

So at this point, I wouldn't say that we would adjust our NII guidance for any change in lending. It's more the experience that we've had in Q1 just gives us greater confidence to deliver those consensus numbers, but thank you for the question.

因此在目前這個時間點，我不會說我們會因放款變化而調整 NII 指引。更重要的是，第一季的經驗讓我們更有信心去交付那些共識數字。不過謝謝你的提問。

Perlie Mong, Bank of America.

Perlie Mong，美國銀行。

A couple of more questions on NII, please. So the product margin side of things, can I just dig a little bit deeper in that? So I think previously, you said that the mortgage compression from the COVID era mortgages rolling off would be about GBP100 million. Is that -- how far are we in that? Because presumably, as you said, some of the volumes that might be rolling off in Q2 probably got pulled forward in Q1.

我還有幾個關於 NII 的問題。先談產品利差（product margin）這一塊，我可以再深入問一下嗎？我記得你們之前說過，COVID 時期承作的房貸逐步到期（rolling off）所造成的房貸利差壓縮約為 1 億英鎊。那——目前進展到什麼程度了？因為如你所說，原本可能在第二季到期的部分量，可能在第一季就提前發生了。

And then with swap rates volatility, can you comment on what you're seeing in terms of front-end margins as well?

然後在掉期利率波動的情況下，您能否也評論一下您所看到的前端利差（front-end margins）狀況？

And then on the deposit side, I suppose competition has been maybe a little bit higher than partly reflecting seasonality as well. So when you said that you expect product margin to be similar next quarter, is that more mortgage or is it more deposit? If you could just help us understand that a little bit better.

另外在存款端，我想競爭可能稍微更激烈一些，部分也反映季節性因素。因此，當您說您預期下季產品利差會相近時，那是更多來自房貸，還是更多來自存款？如果可以的話，請協助我們更好地理解這一點。

And then on the US CB as well, you commented that margins were quite high this quarter, there's a big improvement. Obviously, there will be some mechanical improvements further the American Airlines exit, but how much more sort of underlying improvement are we -- can we expect from pricing and from deposit mix, et cetera?

另外就美國 CB 而言，您提到本季利差相當高，有很大的改善。顯然，在退出 American Airlines（AA）之後，還會有一些機械性的改善，但從定價與存款組合等方面來看，我們還能期待多少更偏向基本面的改善？

Okay. Thank you, Perlie. I will take both of those. So our product margin impacts in Q1 are as we guided and they're in line with our expectations. And I want to merge your two NII questions, if I may, Perlie because actually, that product dilution is coming from both mortgages and from deposits.

好的。謝謝你，Perlie。我會一起回答這兩個問題。所以我們在第一季的產品利差影響如同我們先前指引，且符合我們的預期。Perlie，如果可以的話，我想把你關於淨利息收入（NII）的兩個問題合併回答，因為實際上，這個產品稀釋同時來自房貸與存款。

In mortgages, we are seeing the impacts that we called out as a full year, and that's the maturation of the covered era loans coming through as expected. Somewhat offsetting that, we're seeing better performance from more recent vintages where we are seeing better retention. So that's a slight positive impact in mortgages. And we are seeing the impact of deposit margin compression coming through in there. I expect it to be broadly similar in Q2, Perlie, with all of those factors continuing.

在房貸方面，我們看到我們先前所提到的全年影響正在發生，也就是受保時期（covered era）貸款到期續轉（maturation）如預期地逐步反映出來。部分抵銷的是，我們看到較近期批次（vintages）的表現更好，留存率（retention）也更佳。因此在房貸上有些微正面影響。同時，我們也看到存款利差被壓縮的影響正在反映。我預期第二季大致會相近，Perlie，因為上述因素都會持續。

And that's simply because of the timing of the maturity of mortgages, but also very importantly, remember, deposit competition in the UK tends to be concentrated in Q1 and Q2 because of the ISA season. Thereafter, we would expect that product margin compression to ease off a little.

這主要是因為房貸到期的時間點，但同樣非常重要的是，請記得英國的存款競爭通常集中在第一季與第二季，因為 ISA 季節的關係。之後，我們預期產品利差壓縮會稍微緩和一些。

What's different from when I spoke to you at the full year is we now do expect NII growth in Q2. We expected it to be broadly flat previously. Now we expect growth into Q2 and then to continue growing quarterly thereafter and to grow year-on-year in every single quarter of the year.

與我在全年業績時跟你談到的不同之處在於，我們現在確實預期第二季 NII 會成長。先前我們預期大致持平。現在我們預期第二季會成長，之後每季持續季增，且今年每一個季度都會呈現年增。

When I think about what's happening in the mortgage market, we have seen a pull forward of applications, but they have not yet completed. So March was a very, very large month for applications. And I think that just speaks to the volatility in the rate environment and customers seeking to lock in. To give you an idea, for our June maturity, we've seen roughly double the number of customers lock in by this stage than we would ordinarily do.

當我看房貸市場正在發生的事情時，我們確實看到申請有提前（pull forward），但尚未完成。因此，3 月是申請量非常、非常大的月份。我認為這反映了利率環境的波動，以及客戶希望鎖定利率。舉例來說，針對我們 6 月到期的客戶，截至目前為止鎖定的客戶數大約是平常的兩倍。

But that hasn't completed yet. It's going to complete through Q2 and Q3. Margins remain fairly robust. Clearly, rates are moving around, but so are swaps, and they tend to move in alignment with one another. So that's what's happening in terms of UK NII.

但這還沒有完成，會在第二季與第三季完成。利差仍相當穩健。當然利率在波動，但掉期也在波動，而且兩者通常會同步變動。以上就是英國 NII 的情況。

In terms of US CB. Look, the net interest income there is a little higher than we anticipated, but not significantly so, and I wouldn't call out anything in particular. The repricing impacts have worked their ways through now, but we will continue to see ongoing beneficial both NIM impact and net risk-adjusted margin impacts from continuing to rebalance the book from just travel and entertainment towards a bit more retail. So you're obviously going to see a step-change over the next quarter, but that will be an ongoing impact.

至於美國 CB。那邊的淨利息收入確實比我們預期略高，但差異不大，我也不會特別點出某一項原因。重新定價的影響現在已經逐步反映完畢，但我們仍會持續看到，透過把資產組合從以旅遊與娛樂為主，持續再平衡到更多零售，帶來持續性的正面影響，包括 NIM 以及淨風險調整後利差（net risk-adjusted margin）。因此你會在下一季看到一個階梯式變化，但這也會是持續性的影響。

And I'll just call out here also our progress in deposits, really pleased with that. Our retail deposits are now 76% of our overall funding. That's higher than the target that we gave you of 75% by the end of and that has been disproportionately driven by some of the partnerships. So you're going to continue to see mortgage -- sorry, margin accretion. But obviously, it will be more pronounced over the next quarter-or-so.

另外我也想在此補充我們在存款方面的進展，對此非常滿意。我們的零售存款目前已占整體資金來源的 76%。這高於我們先前給出的目標：到年底達到 75%。而這在很大程度上是由部分合作夥伴關係（partnerships）所帶動。因此你會持續看到利差增厚（margin accretion）——抱歉，我剛剛說成房貸了。但顯然，在接下來一季左右會更為明顯。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

Amit Goel，Mediobanca。

So yes, two questions for me. One was just back on BUK, but just on the cost piece. So I appreciate there was a slightly different phasing of investment this quarter versus last year. Do you mind just giving a bit more color on like how different was the investment versus last year, just so we can see the kind of the cleaner piece there?

是的，我有兩個問題。第一個回到 BUK，但想問成本部分。我理解本季相較去年在投資的時點安排上略有不同。你介意多提供一些說明嗎？例如相較去年投資的差異有多大，讓我們可以更清楚地看出較「乾淨」的部分？

And then secondly, just on the US CB net receivables. I saw after like several quarters of increase, there was a slight reduction. I don't know if that was related to the AA portfolio. But basically, I'm just curious if US players are being a bit more aggressive anticipating reductions in capital demand, and so whether that's the reason why net receivables came down or if actually there is a little bit of a reduction in that market?

第二個問題是關於美國 CB 的淨應收款（net receivables）。我看到在連續幾季增加之後，這次略有下降。我不確定是否與 AA 投資組合有關。但我主要想了解的是，美國同業是否因預期資本需求下降而變得更積極，因此導致淨應收款下滑；或者其實市場本身就有些降溫？

Okay. Amit, I will take both of those. So in BUK, I mean I can see as I look at operating cost as a slight misteonsensus. I think that's only timing, particularly when I look at where that is, it's in the BUK. So BUK has got a slightly different profile of investment and actually efficiency delivery this year from previous years.

好的。Amit，我會一起回答這兩個問題。就 BUK 而言，我看營運成本時，確實看到市場共識（consensus）有些微偏差。我認為那只是時點問題，尤其當我看偏差出現的位置，是在 BUK。因此，BUK 今年的投資輪廓，以及效率改善的落地節奏，確實與過去幾年略有不同。

And I'm not going to give you numbers, but let me help you think about it.

我不會給你具體數字，但我可以協助你理解該如何看待。

Probably the structural cost actions will be a little more forward phased than last year and that's simply because some of the things that we are doing around Tesco as well as the underlying business, whereas the opposite is true of efficiencies. You're going to see them build through the year. So I still believe that BUK costs are going to be down in absolute terms year-on-year.

結構性成本行動（structural cost actions）可能會比去年更偏向前期發生，這只是因為我們在 Tesco 以及核心業務上所做的一些事情；而效率（efficiencies）則相反，你會看到它們在全年逐步累積。因此我仍然相信，BUK 成本在絕對金額上會呈現年減。

And clearly, given that they've been up in the first quarter, you should be expecting them to fall in absolute terms towards the second half for the cost-to-income ratio to be in the low 50s. So that's exactly as we expected, and it's just some of the movements around timing and other investments.

而且很明顯，既然第一季成本是上升的，你應該預期在下半年其絕對金額會下降，使成本收入比落在 50% 出頭的低段。這完全符合我們的預期，只是一些時點與其他投資所造成的波動。

On US CB, the change in card levels, I mean, typically, we see a seasonal change in Q1. I don't believe it's any more than that, Amit. And as I look at our performance in terms of purchases and the other factors that we would expect to see as lead indicators, they are no different from the broader peer set, but thank you for the question.

至於美國 CB，卡片水位的變動——一般來說，我們通常會在第一季看到季節性的變化。我不認為這超出季節性因素，Amit。並且當我看我們在消費金額（purchases）以及其他我們視為領先指標的因素時，它們與更廣泛的同業表現並無不同，但謝謝你的提問。

Jonathan Pierce, Jefferies.

Jonathan Pierce，Jefferies。

Sorry, I was going to ask you about share awards, but I know you fell off my chair when you made a comment on 2028 net interest income. So I'll actually go with that if it's okay. Just to clarify, 2028, you're talking about consensus being very light at the group level, just checking, I taught that properly? And is that comment made in the context of where the yield curve is today or are you saying that consensus was very light even ahead of the move in the yield curve?

抱歉，我本來想問你關於股票獎酬（share awards），但你提到 2028 年淨利息收入時，我差點從椅子上摔下來。所以如果可以的話，我就改問那個。想先確認一下，你說 2028 年，是指集團層級的市場共識預估非常保守（very light），我理解得對嗎？而且你這個評論是基於今天的殖利率曲線水準，還是你在說即便在殖利率曲線變動之前，共識就已經非常保守？

And I don't know whether you can give us a bit of color as to where you think we're wrong at a divisional level. Tying into that, just a quick question on the hedge. Are you taking advantage of the fact that the yield curve is markedly higher today? I mean a one-year forward-starting seven year is offering you 4.4% today. I'm just wondering if you're pre-hedging maybe a bit more of your future maturities than you might have done in the past?

另外，不知道你能否提供一些說明，指出你認為我們在事業部層級的判斷錯在哪裡。延伸這點，再快速問一個關於避險（hedge）的问题：你們是否正在利用目前殖利率曲線明顯更高的情況？例如一年後起算的七年期（one-year forward-starting seven year）今天提供 4.4%。我想知道你們是否正在預先避險（pre-hedging）更多未來到期部位，相較過去可能做得更多？

Okay, Jonathan, I will take both of those. So I made the same comments at the full year, so it doesn't relate to the movement in the yield curve and the guidance that we are giving you is still based on a 3.5% reinvestment rate. We have not changed that number. So -- and it's the group number that I'm referring to as I look at that. So this is no change from what we've said before.

好的，Jonathan，我會一起回答這兩個問題。我在全年業績時也做過相同評論，所以這與殖利率曲線的變動無關；而我們給你的指引仍是以 3.5% 的再投資利率為基礎，我們沒有改變這個數字。所以——我指的是集團層級的數字。也就是說，這與我們之前所說的沒有任何改變。

If I can point you to where I think the difference is, I think it arises in two areas. The first is UK corporate bank. And we see considerable momentum in the UK Corporate Bank.

如果要指出我認為差異在哪裡，我認為主要來自兩個面向。第一個是英國企業銀行（UK corporate bank）。我們在英國企業銀行看到相當強的動能。

We've seen it both consistent quarters now. It has grown its lending in the first quarter by 15%. And it continues to make great progress even before we land the capabilities that we are due to learn through this year in So that's the first thing I would call out. I just -- I think we don't discuss it a great deal on these calls.

我們已經連續幾季都看到這點。它在第一季放款成長了 15%。而且即使在我們今年預計要逐步落地的能力（capabilities）到位之前，它也持續取得很好的進展。所以這是我首先想點出的。我只是——我認為我們在這些電話會議上並沒有太多討論到它。

The second thing would be US Consumer Bank, where you've really got three things starting to come together here. you've got card balances, which are up 10% year-on-year in the first quarter. We will, in the next few days, complete the purchase of a top five unsecured direct-to-consumer loans business in the US and that gives us the opportunity to take that capability directly to our customers and to our corporate clients.

第二件事是美國消費者銀行（US Consumer Bank），在這裡你會看到三件事確實開始匯聚。第一是卡片餘額，在第一季年增10%。我們將在接下來幾天內完成收購一家美國前五大的無擔保、直接面向消費者（direct-to-consumer）貸款業務，這讓我們有機會把這項能力直接提供給我們的客戶以及企業客戶。

And then the third piece is our deposits, which, as I said, are now at 76%. And a meaningful part of that growth has come from our partnership with AARP. So we are really learning in this business about how we can take the full suite of products to our partner base, and that's what gives us the confidence in that business' ability to grow. Venkat, anything you would add on the US CB in particular?

第三個部分是我們的存款，如我所說，目前已達到76%。而這項成長中相當有意義的一部分來自我們與AARP的合作。因此，我們在這項業務中確實正在學習如何把完整的產品組合提供給我們的合作夥伴基礎，這也是我們對該業務成長能力有信心的原因。Venkat，針對美國消費者銀行（US CB）你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. So I mean, it's -- you asked about NII, Jonathan, and Anna has given you the various dimensions of it. But in the US CB in addition, what you see is continued improvement in digitization, continued improvement in costs, leading to the higher RoTEs that we've shown this quarter, 18%-plus. And what I would say is, broaden the statement that Anna has made, across every part of the business, you are seeing performance in the way we said we would demonstrate it 2.5 years ago and reiterated 3 months ago in terms of top line, in terms of operating efficiency, in terms of jaws, in terms of deposit growth, in terms of lending growth in the corporate bank, in terms of the returns improvement in the US Consumer Bank, returns improvement in the investment bank, et cetera, et cetera, I could go on.

是的。我的意思是——Jonathan，你問的是NII（淨利息收入），Anna已經從不同面向向你說明。但在美國消費者銀行（US CB）方面，另外你看到的是數位化持續改善、成本持續改善，帶動我們本季所呈現的更高RoTE（有形股東權益報酬率），達到18%以上。我想說的是，把Anna剛才的說法擴大來看，在業務的每一個部分，你都看到我們如同2.5年前所承諾、並在3個月前再次重申的那樣展現績效：在營收端、在營運效率、在jaws（收入與成本增長差）、在存款成長、在企業銀行放款成長、在美國消費者銀行報酬改善、在投資銀行報酬改善，等等等等，我還可以繼續說下去。

And I think that's the picture we would like to emphasize.

我認為這就是我們想要強調的圖像。

Okay. Jonathan, let me come back to your second question, which was on hedge yield. So the simple answer, as you know, we roll the hedge systematically, we roll it mechanistically, and it is not our opportunity to speculate or determine what rates might be. We roll it irrespective of that environment. The thing that we are very focused on, however, is deposit behavior.

好的。Jonathan，讓我回到你的第二個問題，也就是關於避險收益率（hedge yield）。如你所知，簡單的答案是：我們會系統性地展期避險、以機械式方式展期，這不是讓我們去投機或判斷利率可能走向的工具；不論環境如何，我們都會展期。不過，我們非常關注的一點是存款行為。

So the increase in notional reflects observed deposit behavior over a number of quarters. It doesn't relate to just the quarter past or expectations forward. We actually observe what's going on in the hedge and then we will choose to extend it or indeed contract it. So that's all that's going on there. We're not responding to a change in the yield curve.

因此，名目金額（notional）的增加反映的是我們在多個季度所觀察到的存款行為；它不是只與剛過去的一個季度或對未來的預期有關。我們實際上會觀察避險中發生的情況，然後選擇延長或縮短避險。所以事情就是這樣。我們並不是在回應殖利率曲線的變化。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

Guy Stebbings，法國巴黎銀行（BNP Paribas）。

To start, if I come back to the hedge, just to follow up on Jonathan's question. It was a meaningful uptick, I guess, in Q1 of GBP6 billion or so in the notional. Just trying to understand where that's landing because it doesn't look like there's a big move in deposits in the UK. So is that sort of landing outside of the UK, the IB perhaps?

首先，如果我回到避險這一塊，跟進Jonathan的問題。第一季名目金額大概增加了約60億英鎊，算是相當明顯的上升。我想了解這增加是落在哪裡，因為看起來英國的存款並沒有大幅變動。所以這是否是落在英國以外，例如投資銀行（IB）？

And just, I guess, a reflection of the stickiness, I suppose, of those deposits and how you see them going forward rather than as you say, taking advantage of the curve in any way? And also just to clarify, in terms of pre-hedging the hedge, you say you don't do any pre-hedging the hedge when you talk about what's locked in from here? So that would be the first question.

另外，我想這也反映了那些存款的黏著性（stickiness），以及你們對未來走勢的看法，而不是如你所說以任何方式利用殖利率曲線？還有想確認一下，關於「在避險之前先做避險」（pre-hedging the hedge），你說你們不會做任何pre-hedging；那麼當你們談到從現在起已鎖定的部分時，也是指沒有做pre-hedging嗎？這是第一個問題。

And then the second one was just around ECLs, reasonably flat in aggregate on the performing loan book. I just want to understand the move in the management adjustment, which came down from GBP369 million to GBP265 million in the quarter, quite a big move. I think that largely just relates to the GM book, which now filters directly into the models rather than needing an overlay? So I'm not sure if that explains the entire move, but any color there would be helpful.

第二個問題是關於ECL（預期信用損失）。在整體上，表現良好的貸款組合（performing loan book）的ECL大致持平。我想了解管理層調整（management adjustment）的變動：本季從3.69億英鎊降到2.65億英鎊，變動幅度很大。我認為這主要與GM（General Motors）曝險有關，現在它直接納入模型，而不再需要額外覆蓋（overlay）？我不確定這是否能解釋全部變動，但若能提供一些說明會很有幫助。

Yes. Thank you, Guy. I will take both of those. So look, the movement in the hedge upwards over time in notional is going to reflect our, as I say, a long-term view of deposits. So it's quite difficult for you to tie quarter-on-quarter movements in deposits to sort of changes in the hedge because what we're trying to identify here is rate insensitive balances. And obviously we want to observe that for several, several quarters before we make the change.

是的，謝謝你，Guy。我兩個問題都來回答。首先，避險名目金額隨時間上升的變動，如我所說，會反映我們對存款的長期看法。因此，你很難把存款逐季的變動，直接對應到避險的變化，因為我們在這裡要辨識的是對利率不敏感的餘額（rate insensitive balances）。顯然，在做出調整之前，我們會觀察好幾個季度、好幾個季度。

So you're going to see it outside of the UK as well as inside. And obviously, over time, as the equity and the firm continues to rise, you're going to see us hedging more of the equity position as well. So I wouldn't call anything in particular out. If we do any pre-hedging, it's very limited and it's under very strict risk limits and those have not changed over time and certainly would not explain anything near the portion that I've called out today. So that GBP6 billion is the observation of deposits.

所以你會在英國以外也看到這種情況，同時也會在英國境內看到。並且，隨著股東權益與公司規模持續上升，長期來看，你也會看到我們對更多的股東權益部位進行避險。因此我不會特別點名某一項。如果我們有做任何pre-hedging，規模非常有限，而且在非常嚴格的風險限額之下；這些限額長期以來沒有改變，當然也不可能解釋我今天提到的那種幅度。所以這60億英鎊是基於對存款的觀察。

In terms of your second question about post model adjustments, I appreciate this is quite difficult to tell because we only give you the full disclosure at half year. But -- just for the rest of you, what Guy is referring to is slide 40 and is basically calling out the fact that the management adjustments have dropped from Q4 into Q1. And just to remind you, guys, we do these post management adjustments for two reasons. The first is where we're doing some work on the models, and to anticipate what that model work will show, we very often take a PMA.

至於你第二個問題，關於模型後調整（post model adjustments），我理解這不太容易判讀，因為我們只在半年報時才會提供完整揭露。不過——也讓其他人了解一下，Guy指的是投影片40，基本上是在指出管理層調整從第四季到第一季下降。提醒各位，我們做這些模型後的管理層調整（PMA）有兩個原因：第一是當我們正在對模型做一些工作時，為了提前反映模型工作可能呈現的結果，我們往往會先提列PMA。

And then the other reason that we take a PMA is when we are faced with a degree of economic uncertainty, and we feel like consensus may not be effective. The point that you're talking about here is the former. So actually, what happened is prior to this quarter, the GM, so the General Motors impairment was not modeled. We were essentially using our expectation and our existing portfolios to anticipate what that was going to be, and we put it in as a post model adjustments.

第二個原因是當我們面臨一定程度的經濟不確定性，並且覺得市場共識可能不夠有效時，我們也會提列PMA。你這裡提到的屬於前者。也就是說，在本季之前，GM（General Motors）的減損並未納入模型。我們基本上是用自身的預期與既有投組來推估其影響，並以模型後調整的方式納入。

Now what's happened is we've updated the model and so General Motors is a modeled number. So you're not going to see any change in the total number, it just jumps from being in the PMA to being in the modeled number. The real changes in PMAs that we've done and the ones we've spoken to you about really speak to economic uncertainty and relate to US cards, UK cards and the IB.

現在發生的事情是我們更新了模型，因此General Motors成為模型內的數字。所以你不會看到總額有任何變化，只是它從PMA跳轉到模型數字中。我們真正做出的PMA變動、以及我們已向你們說明的那些，主要是反映經濟不確定性，並與美國信用卡、英國信用卡以及投資銀行（IB）相關。

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

Andrew Coombs，花旗集團（Citigroup）。

If I could just pivot the conversation to capital? Just intrigued on two things. One, there's been a lot of press coverage about your comments around the leverage ratio exclude unencumbered guilds. Perhaps you could just touch more broadly on where you see the leverage ratio is a binding constraint now? For which product, with divisions leverage ratio, the mining come straight forward?

我能否把話題轉到資本？我對兩點感到好奇。第一，媒體對你們關於槓桿比率（leverage ratio）排除未設質押英國國債（unencumbered gilts）的評論有很多報導。你是否可以更廣泛地談談，你認為槓桿比率現在在哪些方面成為具約束力的限制（binding constraint）？對哪些產品、哪些事業部門而言槓桿比率是限制？相關的影響是否會更直接地顯現？

And then secondly, I'll talk about bar to endgame. Overall a 5% release expected for the CAT1 and the two banks and the change in the GSIB methodology, but arguably more important from a competitive standpoint is the output floor has been dropped. And when I look at the risk weight, I think under ERBA at 75% and retail loans at 45% of the credit card transactions, grant transactors. So can you just talk about what you think game means for the competitive dynamics for the US Consumer division and for the investment bank?

第二，我想談談Basel III endgame。整體而言，預期CET1（普通股權益第一類資本）會釋放5%，以及兩家銀行與GSIB（全球系統重要性銀行）方法論的變更；但從競爭角度來看，更重要的可能是輸出下限（output floor）已被取消。當我看風險權重時，我認為在ERBA下為75%，而零售貸款為45%，針對信用卡交易、授信交易者（transactors）。你能否談談你認為endgame對美國消費者事業部以及投資銀行的競爭動態意味著什麼？

Okay. Andy, why don't I start on leverage and then I will hand to Venkat in the second part? So yes, we like the sort of broader consultation might suggest there is an ongoing discussion in the UK about the leverage ratio and really leverage being a backstop and we would support that. You're noting that we have published a piece of work that talks about the opportunity in the UK really for the treatment of unencumbered gilts, and we do think that that's important. As we make that statement, it's more about the opportunity for UK plc and the reduction in costs that, that would have for the government, and we called out around GBP2.5 billion per annum on an ongoing basis.

好的。Andy，我先從槓桿談起，第二部分再交給Venkat。是的，正如較廣泛的諮詢可能所暗示的，英國目前確實正在持續討論槓桿比率，並且把槓桿視為一種後備約束（backstop），我們支持這樣的方向。你提到我們發布了一份研究，談到英國在未設質押英國國債（unencumbered gilts）處理方式上的機會，我們確實認為這很重要。我們提出這個觀點，更多是關於英國整體（UK plc）的機會，以及這將為政府帶來的成本降低；我們指出長期而言每年約可節省25億英鎊。

We are not leverage-constrained. Clearly, we have considerable leverage usage within our financing business within the investment bank, that's why we are a significant issuer of AT1 in the market. And as we do so, we're clearly mindful of the relative cost between those AT1s and the kind of margins that we get in the financing business. So the two things are somewhat unconnected. One is more of an observation on UK plc. Venkat?

我們並未受到槓桿比率的限制（not leverage-constrained）。很明顯地，在投資銀行的融資業務中，我們有相當可觀的槓桿使用，這也是為什麼我們在市場上是AT1（額外第一類資本）的重要發行人。當我們這麼做時，我們也會清楚留意這些AT1的相對成本，以及我們在融資業務中所獲得的利差水準。因此這兩件事在某種程度上並不直接相關：一個更像是對英國整體（UK plc）的觀察。Venkat？

Yes. So Andrew, on the capital side. We clearly are watching very closely what's happening in the US, not just in terms of capital ratios proposed under the Basel endgame, but the way supervision is itself changing and stress testing is changing. You've got to look at all three together, and we would advocate very strongly for the UK numbers to be relatively consistent.

是的。所以 Andrew，在資本面上，我們顯然正非常密切地關注美國正在發生的事情，不僅是《巴塞爾協議》終局（Basel endgame）下所提議的資本比率，還包括監理方式本身的變化，以及壓力測試的變化。你必須把這三者放在一起看，而我們會非常強烈地主張英國的數字應該相對一致。

And for the UK approach is also to adopt greater transparency in the way in which add-ons are determined both for banks and for investors. The particular things on the investment bank and credit cards, let me begin with credit cards. So in the credit card space, you're right that if there are no changes, then the UK numbers will, at a parent level for us holding company level, add on more capital per unit risk than a US bank would face. Now what we are doing to adjust our business is obviously running it more efficiently and also diversifying it and the purchase of Best Egg and the direct-to-consumer loan business should be seen as a part of diversifying our cards business into other places which are less penalized in terms of capital.

而英國的做法也在於，以更高的透明度來決定對銀行與投資人的附加要求（add-ons）是如何被訂定的。至於投資銀行與信用卡的具體事項，我先從信用卡開始。在信用卡領域，你說得沒錯，如果沒有任何變動，那麼英國的數字在母公司層級、對我們而言在控股公司層級，將會使每單位風險所需配置的資本高於美國銀行所面臨的水準。現在我們為了調整業務所做的事情，顯然是讓營運更有效率，同時也進行多元化；收購 Best Egg 以及直接面向消費者的貸款業務，應被視為我們將卡業務多元化到其他領域的一部分，而那些領域在資本方面受到的懲罰較少。

And then on the Investment Bank, the point I would make is we have already, for some time, been facing US banks, which have been putting more capital and more balance sheet. And at least the way we have done the analysis, and you should probably replicate it, is if you look at returns per risk-weighted assets, a form of capital efficiency, I think we've done pretty well. And as you know, we've over the number of years, made structural improvements in the way the Investment Bank is performing. We've had eight successive quarters of strength in year-on-year income growth on positive cost jaws, on income over RWA, as I said, and we beat consensus for eight consecutive quarters in the IB.

接著談投資銀行。我想強調的是，我們其實在一段時間以來就一直面對美國銀行同業，而他們投入了更多資本與更多資產負債表。至少以我們所做的分析方式——你也許應該複製做一次——如果你看每單位風險加權資產（RWA）的報酬，也就是一種資本效率，我認為我們做得相當不錯。正如你所知，這些年來我們在投資銀行的表現方式上做了結構性改善。我們已連續八個季度在年對年收入成長上展現強勁表現，且成本收入剪刀差（cost jaws）為正；如我所說，收入／RWA 表現也很強，而且我們在投行（IB）已連續八個季度優於市場共識。

This is all deeply structural. And what we are trying to do with these structural changes, with the improved increase in financing as a portion of our total revenue, et cetera, is finding our own ways to be competitive and to be efficient. Now on top of that, do I want to roll against the current of capital disparity between the UK and the US? I wouldn't.

這些都是非常深層的結構性因素。我們試圖透過這些結構性變革、透過融資收入占我們總收入比重的提升等等，找到讓自己具競爭力且有效率的方法。那麼在此之上，我是否想要逆著英國與美國之間資本差異的潮流而行？我不會。

But we've made our views known, but we will run our -- we will continue to operate the bank in the way we have and shown the progress we've done quarter-over-quarter.

但我們已經表達了我們的看法，而我們將以既有方式經營——我們會持續以我們一直以來的方式營運銀行，並展現我們逐季（quarter-over-quarter）取得的進展。

Jason Napier, UBS.

Jason Napier，瑞銀（UBS）。

I think I can echo, Venkat, what you were saying about the sort of underlying performance of the business. If you take out the one-offs, it looks like PBT is up 15% year-on-year. But of course, a lot of the conversations are about one-offs and those sorts of matters. So if I could ask two, one, quite a lot of coverage in the media around potential SRT governance inquiries. If you could talk potentially about that or confirm that there's no change to the capital outlook for the group as a consequence of what may or may not emerge from that?

我想我可以呼應你剛才所說的，Venkat，關於業務的底層表現。如果把一次性因素（one-offs）剔除，看起來稅前利潤（PBT）年對年成長 15%。但當然，很多討論都圍繞在一次性因素與這類議題上。所以我想問兩個問題：第一，媒體對於可能的 SRT 治理調查有相當多的報導。你是否可以談談這件事，或確認無論那裡可能或不可能出現什麼結果，對集團的資本展望都沒有改變？

And then secondly, just to follow up, please, Venkat, on your last answer around relative capital intensity of the businesses in the US in particular. Could you just give us a sense as to which businesses you think are most impacted by the relative changes that are being envisaged? And in those, just some guess as to the cadence of sort of customer churn. How quickly would we know if there was a delta in competitive intensity that actually mattered on the ground?

第二，請再追問一下，Venkat，關於你上一個回答中提到的、特別是在美國各業務相對資本密集度的問題。你能否讓我們了解，你認為哪些業務最會受到目前所設想的相對變動影響？在那些業務中，客戶流失（customer churn）的節奏大概會是如何？如果競爭強度在實際市場上出現了真正重要的差異（delta），我們多快會知道？

Thank you, Jason. I'll start on SRTs and then hand to Venkat. So on SRT, I'm not going to comment on regulatory reviews, but only to say that the regulator in the UK regularly conduct reviews both individually and thematically across the industry. We have been very transparent around our Colonnade program, and you can see that in the appendix.

謝謝你，Jason。我先談 SRT，然後再交給 Venkat。關於 SRT，我不會評論監理審查，但我只想說，英國監理機關會定期在產業內進行個別與主題式的審查。我們對於 Colonnade 計畫一直非常透明，你可以在附錄中看到。

We've given you the same slides for several quarters now. That is primarily our focused on credit management, as Venkat talked about before. And indeed, it's been in place since 2016.

我們已經連續好幾個季度提供相同的投影片。那主要聚焦在信用管理上，正如 Venkat 先前所談到的。而且，這個計畫自 2016 年起就已經在運作。

For those of you following along, it's slide 47. So it's a well managed, well embedded, well regarded with investor program that's been around for a long time. Of course, we have to notify the PRA every single time that we do an SRT transaction. So that's something that we've done. And from our perspective, the most important thing that we are focused on, and I would expect the regulator to be focused on, are the risks associated with running that kind of process, and we believe they are number one, the financing of SRT, so we do not finance our own SRTs.

如果各位有在跟著看，是第 47 頁投影片。所以這是一個管理良好、深度嵌入、且受到投資人高度認可、已運作很久的計畫。當然，我們每一次進行 SRT 交易都必須通知英國審慎監理局（PRA）。這是我們一直在做的事。從我們的角度來看，我們最關注、也預期監理機關最關注的，是執行這類流程所伴隨的風險；我們認為第一是 SRT 的融資，也就是我們不會為自己的 SRT 提供融資。

Secondly, the counterparty credit risk. So remember, ours is cash collateralized. So that counterparty credit risk is minimized. And then thirdly, the risk of the market being shut at any point in time. Now clearly, you mitigate that by having a very long-running, long-standing, high-quality program like ours, but we also restrict the maturities in any particular quarter, so they are less than GBP2 billion.

第二是交易對手信用風險。請記得，我們是以現金擔保（cash collateralized）的方式進行，因此交易對手信用風險被降到最低。第三則是市場在任何時間點可能關閉的風險。當然，你可以透過像我們這樣長期運作、歷史悠久且高品質的計畫來降低這個風險；此外，我們也限制任何單一季度的到期量，使其低於 20 億英鎊。

So that means that we would be able to mitigate that easily even if the market were close to us. So from our perspective, Jason, we're very comfortable with the program that we have. We believe it's very successful and provides the credit mitigation that we seek to do, and we don't envisage any changes in it. Venkat?

這表示即使市場對我們關閉，我們也能很容易地加以緩解。因此從我們的角度來看，Jason，我們對現有計畫非常有信心。我們相信它非常成功，並提供我們所追求的信用風險緩釋效果，我們也不預期會對其做任何改變。Venkat？

Yes. Just to finish off on one point. So all the attributes that Anna spoke about in the -- of the SRT program, they come from having an evergreen program and an evergreen program where people know that they can expect a cadence of issue from us, the quality of issuance from us and it helps us and it helps them. On your capital question, let me begin by saying, first of all, there's no new news to us here, right?

是的。再補充一點。Anna 所提到的 SRT 計畫的所有特性，都來自於我們擁有一個常態化（evergreen）的計畫；而且這個常態化計畫讓市場參與者知道，他們可以期待我們以一定的發行節奏、一定的發行品質持續進行，這對我們有利，也對他們有利。至於你的資本問題，我先說，首先，這裡對我們而言沒有任何新消息，對吧？

We've been following this for a number of years. It has been clear that there is going to be a disparity between the US and the UK. It comes, as I say, not just from capital levels, but from of stress testing, the total capital stack, including regulatory add-ons. Now -- so there's not going to be a sudden shift.

我們已經追蹤這件事很多年了。很明顯，美國與英國之間會出現差異。正如我所說，這不僅來自資本水準，也來自壓力測試、以及包含監理附加要求在內的整體資本結構（total capital stack）。所以——不會出現突然的轉變。

What you're seeing is an -- because of the way we anticipate it, the way in which we've constructed our business over time, I just spoke about credit cards in the previous answer, where we've had a high-quality credit card portfolio in terms of cycle stores, and now we are diversifying it with the purchase of Best Egg into direct to consumer loans.

你現在看到的是——因為我們預先做了判斷、也因為我們長期以來建構業務的方式——我在上一個回答中談到信用卡：我們擁有高品質的信用卡投資組合，就景氣循環的表現而言；而現在我們透過收購 Best Egg，將其多元化到直接面向消費者的貸款。

Second, on the investment banking side, you've seen again from us a emphasis on financing, which is, as I've always said, a very good business, properly risk-managed and has capital benefits because of secured lending and emphasis, so that's becoming a bigger part of our portfolio. We continue to emphasize intermediation. You will see that we manage our risks very well. If you look at our VAR, the VAR is managed -- and the number of loss days, which was only one this quarter. The VAR is managed at a lower level, VAR obviously is a way in which you control risk and that can have an impact on capital.

第二，在投資銀行方面，你也看到我們再次強調融資業務；正如我一直說的，融資在妥善風險管理下是一門非常好的生意，並且因為有擔保放款與相關側重而具備資本上的好處，因此它正成為我們投資組合中更大的一部分。我們也持續強調中介（intermediation）。你會看到我們把風險管理得很好。如果你看我們的 VaR，VaR 的管理——以及虧損日數（loss days），本季只有一天。VaR 被控制在較低水準；VaR 顯然是一種控制風險的方法，而這可能會對資本產生影響。

So the way the business has been structured, it is with a view to these disparities, which are not new, right. And we will continue to work with the capital regime we have and operate subject to it in the most efficient way we can.

因此，業務的建構方式本來就是考量到這些差異，而這些差異並不是新的，對吧。我們會持續在現有資本制度下運作，並在其約束下以我們所能做到的最高效率來經營。

Thank you, Venkat. The only other thing I would add, Jason, is just our ongoing focus on the international corporate bank. Clearly, that's another source of relatively capital-light revenue for us in an area where we think we have real opportunities to grow. You talked about that a lot at the year-end. And you can see it again in our dollar deposit growth in the quarter.

謝謝你，Venkat。Jason，我唯一還想補充的是，我們持續聚焦於國際企業銀行（international corporate bank）。很明顯，這也是我們相對資本較輕（capital-light）的收入來源之一，而且是在我們認為有真正成長機會的領域。你在年終時談了很多，而你也可以從本季我們美元存款的成長再次看到。

But thank you for the question.

不過，謝謝你的提問。

Chris Cant, Autonomous.

Chris Cant，Autonomous。

If I could come back to this topic around competition from US players. You've spoken to financing, and that's been an area of growth for you for a number of years now. It's obviously not just RWA-based capital relief that US peers are getting, though they are also seeing a sort of leverage biting point dropping away in the background and how are you expecting to see more competition in that financing space as well?

如果我可以回到這個關於來自美國同業競爭的主題。你談到了融資，而這幾年一直是你們的成長領域。顯然，美國同業獲得的不只是以 RWA 為基礎的資本紓解；同時他們也看到在背景中槓桿率的約束點（leverage biting point）正在下降。那麼你預期在融資領域也會看到更多競爭嗎？

That would be question one, please.

那將是第一個問題，麻煩了。

And the second small one, I think. But on corporate lending in the IB, that looked quite soft this quarter relative even with the fair value marks adjusted for you, it looked like a soft quarter. What should we be expecting there going forward, please, noting that you're looking to the ICB as an area of growth? And I know transaction banking is doing well, but if you could comment on that, one heat print for corporate lending, that would be appreciated.

第二個小問題，我想是關於投行（IB）的企業放款。本季相較之下看起來相當疲弱，即使把你們調整過的公允價值評價（fair value marks）納入考量，仍然像是個偏弱的季度。往後我們應該如何預期這一塊的走勢？尤其你們提到把 ICB 視為成長領域。我知道交易銀行表現不錯，但若你能就企業放款這條線做個評論、給一個企業放款的「熱度指標」（heat print），將不勝感激。

Okay. Chris, why don't I start? So I'll talk about leverage and then I might hand to Venkat, and then I'll pick up on corporate lending. So look, clearly, financing has been an area of growth for both us and for the US banks, and we've seen that over a number of quarters now.

好的。Chris，我先開始好嗎？我會先談槓桿，然後可能交給 Venkat，接著我再回到企業放款。你看，很明顯，融資一直是我們以及美國銀行的成長領域，而且我們已經連續好幾個季度都看到這個趨勢。

We're pleased with our performance, which is up 31% year-on-year in dollar terms. And we don't see that the US peers have been leverage constrained up to this point. And indeed, it's not just this quarter.

我們對自身表現感到滿意，以美元計算年增 31%。而且截至目前我們並不認為美國同業受到槓桿限制。事實上，也不只是這一季。

If you look back over successive quarters, as Venkat has said, you see increasing levels of balance sheet generally being deployed into the business. But Venkat, you might want to comment on the competitiveness of this product generally.

如果你回頭看連續幾個季度，正如 Venkat 所說，你會看到整體而言有越來越多的資產負債表規模被投入到這項業務中。不過 Venkat，你或許可以就這項產品整體的競爭態勢做些評論。

Yes. Look, the first of all, as Anna said, and we've been seeing this for a number of quarters. We've adjusted our business for a number of quarters. Second, especially when you come to things like financing and prime, there is a competitiveness element to it, but there's also a client service and sticking element to it. Our rankings have been growing consistently because of the services we provide to our clients in equity financing and in fixed income.

是的。首先，如 Anna 所說，我們已經連續好幾個季度看到這個情況。我們也已經連續好幾個季度調整了我們的業務。其次，特別是談到像融資與主經紀（prime）這類業務，確實有競爭性的因素，但同時也有客戶服務與黏著度的因素。我們的排名持續提升，是因為我們在股票融資以及固定收益方面為客戶提供的服務。

We are talked to fixed income finance, have been for a long, long time. So it's these capabilities that we bring to bear that make us very competitive and make us attractive to clients. So I would use it on a much more holistic basis. I mean and as Anna has said and I said earlier, over a number of quarters, you've seen the US banks put in both capital and balance sheet much more than we have.

我們談固定收益融資已經談了很久很久。因此，正是我們所具備並能夠發揮的這些能力，使我們非常有競爭力，也讓我們對客戶具有吸引力。所以我會用更全面的角度來看待這件事。我的意思是，正如 Anna 所說、我先前也提到，過去好幾個季度以來，你看到美國銀行投入的資本與資產負債表規模都比我們多得多。

We've been very disciplined on both. Minor fluctuations quarter-to-quarter, but keeping it stable. And yet we've continued to show the results in our investment bank that I spoke about in terms of continuous quarters of improvement. And it's coming from building in the foundations to generate repeatable improved performance. Anna?

我們在兩者上都非常自律。季度之間會有些微波動，但整體保持穩定。即便如此，我們投行仍持續展現我所提到的成果，也就是連續多個季度的改善。而這來自於打好基礎，以產生可重複、可持續的改善表現。Anna？

Yes. Thank you, Venkat. Chris, the corporate lending line, I appreciate it's very difficult to forecast because what you've got there is an underlying level of corporate lending, that's not really changing. We're clearly cycling through this process of reviewing the book. We're sort of a little more than two-thirds of the way through that now.

是的。謝謝你，Venkat。Chris，關於企業放款這條線，我理解它很難預測，因為其中有一個企業放款的基礎水位，其實並沒有真正改變。我們顯然正在經歷檢視放款組合的流程；目前大概已經完成了略多於三分之二。

So that number is fairly consistent at around GBP50 million-ish a quarter. So nothing really happening there. You've obviously got the swing in marks year-on-year.

因此，那個數字相當一致，每季大約在 5,000 萬英鎊左右。所以那邊其實沒有什麼特別的變化。你當然也看到評價（marks）在年對年之間的擺動。

It was up more than 100 last year. It's down 40 this year. So you've got nearly 150 basis points of RoTE impact on the investment bank just in that line alone from those And then the other two things that flow through there are cost of hedging and cost of SRT. Nothing really notable to call out there. You should imagine in the current environment, we do a little bit more hedging, but there's nothing particular I would call out for you, Chris.

去年是增加 100 多（個基點/單位），今年則是下降 40。所以光是這一條線，這些因素就對投行的 RoTE 造成了將近 150 個基點的影響。然後另外兩個會流經這裡的項目是避險成本（cost of hedging）以及 SRT 成本（cost of SRT）。這兩者沒有什麼特別值得指出的。你可以想像在目前環境下，我們會做多一點避險，但沒有什麼我需要特別提醒你的，Chris。

Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux.

Nicolas Payen，Kepler Cheuvreux。

Yes. Just one actually. I just wanted to go back to discuss your cost of risk guidance which is now at the top of the 50 to 60 basis point range. Just wanted to know what are your assumption regarding especially the Middle East situation? Does your guidance capture any improvements in the geopolitical situation or status quo or maybe at the other end of the spectrum, maybe a potential increase in inflation because of the situation?

是的。其實只有一個問題。我想回到你們的信用成本（cost of risk）指引，目前是在 50 到 60 個基點區間的上緣。我想了解你們的假設，特別是針對中東局勢。你們的指引是否反映地緣政治情勢改善、或維持現狀？或者在另一端的情境下，是否考慮因局勢導致通膨可能上升？

Yes, anything you can give us regarding this new guidance.

關於這個新指引，你們能提供的任何資訊都很有幫助。

Okay. Thank you, Nicolas. I mean, we have called out that we expect to be around the top end of our 50 to 60 basis points range. That's purely because of the single name that we took in the first quarter, and we do not see any other signs of credit deterioration in the UK, in the US, in corporate or in consumer. And so from our perspective at the moment, if you do the math, then you'll see that we are broadly in the midpoint of the range for the remaining quarters of this year.

好的。謝謝你，Nicolas。我們確實已指出，我們預期會落在 50 到 60 個基點區間的上緣。這純粹是因為我們在第一季認列了一筆單一個案（single name），而我們在英國、美國、企業端或消費端都沒有看到其他信用惡化的跡象。因此，就我們目前的角度，如果你做一下計算，你會看到今年剩餘季度我們大致落在該區間的中點附近。

I can see that consensus is already at the position that we've guided to today.

我也看到市場共識已經在我們今天所給出的指引水準上。

So I think that's probably what the market was anticipating. At this point, we don't see any significant impact from the situation in the Middle East, other than the revenue impacts, which have been broadly positive, to date. So the rate impact and obviously, our ability to capture the cyclical opportunity in the IB. In terms of credit, we don't see any deterioration at this point. However, we have taken three, I would say, relatively modest adjustment in our IFRS 9 modeling as we look at future potential risks.

所以我想這大概就是市場原本的預期。就目前而言，除了營收面的影響（迄今大致是正面的）之外，我們沒有看到中東局勢帶來任何顯著影響。因此，利率面的影響，以及我們在投行（IB）把握景氣循環機會的能力，都是如此。就信用而言，我們目前沒有看到惡化。不過，我們在 IFRS 9 模型中做了三項我會稱之為相對溫和的調整，以因應我們對未來潛在風險的評估。

So the first of those relates to UK and US cards, where we have been slightly more conservative with the unemployment rates that we have used predominantly. And we're just recognizing those that clearly consensus is moving on over time. And those two particular books are highly, highly sensitive to unemployment and the rate of change in unemployment.

第一項與英國與美國的信用卡（cards）有關，我們在所採用的失業率假設上略為保守，主要是在失業率方面。我們只是反映出市場共識隨時間推移正在變動。而這兩個特定組合對失業率以及失業率變動速度都極度敏感。

The second thing that we've done is, to Venkat's prepared remarks, we're a little bit more mindful of some of the investment bank exposures. And on that basis, we have put a little bit of downside bias into the investment bank calculation, essentially weighting it more heavily to the downside one scenario. That will very consistent with what we've done in previous periods where we faced uncertainty. So we're not trying to make a prediction here. We're really just recognizing some of the uncertainty around us.

第二項是，呼應 Venkat 的事先準備發言，我們對部分投行曝險更為留意。在此基礎上，我們在投行的計算中加入了一點偏向下行的傾向，也就是在情境權重上更偏重下行情境。這與我們在過去面對不確定性時所做的做法非常一致。我們並不是要在這裡做預測，而是承認周遭存在一些不確定性。

Now clearly, if the situation were to persist, and we started to see real economic effects coming through in terms of higher inflation, then that may have some impact on credit. But there's a few things I would say, hopefully, to reassure. The first would be, we clearly had recent experience of this in 2022, where we saw a sharp inflationary environment and we saw a sharp increase in rates, and we saw very, very resilient consumer and client behavior. Corporate balance sheets remain strong. Consumers remain in a very robust position.

當然，如果情勢持續，並且我們開始看到更高通膨等實質經濟影響浮現，那可能會對信用造成一些影響。但我想提出幾點，希望能讓大家安心。第一，我們在 2022 年其實有近期經驗，當時通膨環境急遽上升、利率也快速上調，而我們看到消費者與客戶行為非常、非常有韌性。企業資產負債表仍然強健，消費者也仍處於非常穩健的狀態。

And whilst we've added lending since then, there's been no meaningful change in our risk stance since that point in time. So that gives us confidence.

而且雖然自那之後我們增加了放款，但自當時以來，我們的風險立場並沒有任何實質改變。因此這讓我們有信心。

The second thing is that, obviously, we see, I would say, rational changes in behavior from both clients and consumers. So being mindful of the uncertainty and perhaps paying back their credit cards a little faster than they otherwise might. We think that that's really positive for credit and it's something that we observe. But overall, nothing additional that we've taken so far other than those three PMAs. IFRS 9 is highly cyclical -- sorry, highly procyclical.

第二點是，很明顯地，我們看到客戶與消費者的行為出現我會稱之為理性的變化。也就是留意不確定性，或許比原本更快地償還信用卡。我們認為這對信用非常正面，而且我們確實觀察到這點。但整體而言，除了那三項 PMA 之外，我們目前沒有採取其他額外措施。IFRS 9 是高度順循環的——抱歉，是高度「促循環」（highly procyclical）的。

So if we were to see a real deterioration, then clearly, that might lead us to make some changes. But of course, we'll call that out if it occurs. But thank you for the question.

因此，如果我們真的看到明顯惡化，那麼很清楚地，這可能會促使我們做出一些調整。但當然，如果發生了，我們會特別說明。謝謝你的提問。

Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs.

Chris Hallam，高盛。

So my first question is just on lending dynamics. Anna, I think you've just covered some of this, but I want to drill down on one point. So in the UK Corporate Bank, how much of the moves you've seen on loans and on deposits as well actually in the first quarter is potentially attributable to the macro uncertainty? So the premise being that if you were to start to see scarcity and sort of inflation-driven restocking cycles, companies loading up on inventory at higher prices that will drive demand for working capital lending, while also compressing corporate cash balances.

我的第一個問題是關於放款動態。Anna，我想你剛剛已經涵蓋了一部分，但我想針對一點深入追問。在英國企業銀行（UK Corporate Bank）方面，你們在第一季看到的放款與存款變動，有多少可能可歸因於總體不確定性？我的前提是：如果開始出現供給稀缺以及由通膨驅動的補庫存循環，企業以更高價格增加庫存，將推升營運資金放款需求，同時也會壓縮企業現金餘額。

Simplistically, that just maps onto the Q-on-Q evolution in loans and deposits you saw in the UK Corporate Bank, but that could just be coincidence.

簡單來說，這正好對應到你們在英國企業銀行看到的放款與存款的季對季變化，但也可能只是巧合。

And then second question on the disclosure on slide 46 -- 45, sorry. Has the uncertainty over the last few months in the private credit space changed at all how you think about the growth outlook in those areas? I think there's a sort of consensus building that the credit risk for the banks themselves is pretty low as you called out the absence of losses. But simplistically, private credit as an industry has been growing pretty quickly. So if you and your internal planning had forecast that stacked bar chart, let's say, for 2028, 6 to 12 months ago, would the composition of our chart looks very different today, i.e., hiss the opportunity set in financing changed in your view?

然後第二個問題是關於第46頁——抱歉，第45頁的揭露。過去幾個月私募信貸領域的不確定性，是否在任何程度上改變了你們對那些領域成長前景的看法？我想市場上正在形成某種共識：如你所指出的缺乏損失，銀行自身的信用風險其實相當低。但簡單來說，私募信貸作為一個產業一直成長得很快。所以如果你們在內部規劃中，假設在6到12個月前就已經預測了那張堆疊長條圖，例如到2028年，那麼今天圖表的組成會不會看起來非常不同？也就是說，就你們的觀點而言，融資的機會集合是否已經改變？

Okay. Chris, I'll pick up the first of those and then I'll hand to Venkat.

好的。Chris，我先回答第一個問題，然後再交給Venkat。

Look, you've seen in Q1, 15% lending growth, 3% deposit growth. I don't think that's due to anything like the sort of behavior changes that you talk about. Chris, I think that's probably a coincidence. And in fact, it's very consistent with what we've seen in recent quarters. About 50% of the lending growth that we are seeing is coming from new clients.

你看第一季，放款成長15%，存款成長3%。我不認為這是因為你所提到那種行為改變所造成的。Chris，我覺得那大概只是巧合。而且事實上，這與我們近幾季看到的情況非常一致。我們目前看到的放款成長中，大約有50%來自新客戶。

And as they come on board, they are also placing their deposits with us, which is why we're seeing that balance. And remember, we are very deposit-heavy within our corporate bank. Our loan-to-deposit ratio, I think, is around 34%. So we would expect to be growing lending faster than deposits. That is our absolute strategic intent.

而當他們加入之後，也會把存款放在我們這裡，這就是為什麼我們會看到那樣的平衡。並且請記得，我們的企業銀行在結構上是非常偏重存款的。我們的貸存比我想大約是34%。所以我們預期放款成長會快於存款成長。這就是我們絕對的策略意圖。

Venkat, over to your second question.

Venkat，交給你回答第二個問題。

Yes. So just on the first point, which is that the growth you see in lending in our corporate bank is very largely our own actions. This is what we said we would do in our strategy. We said that we have had a bigger deposit base and we wanted to encourage lending for our clients and grow our client book. It's exactly what we've been doing.

是的。所以先就第一點而言，你在我們企業銀行看到的放款成長，很大程度上是我們自身行動的結果。這正是我們在策略中說過要做的事。我們說過我們有較大的存款基礎，並希望鼓勵對客戶放款、擴大客戶群。這正是我們一直在做的。

Coming to your question on structured financing exposures. I think look, there's a supplier of credit, there's a demand of credit for credit issue. I think what you're seeing in the liquidity dynamics in the private credit market may mean a shrinkage supply of credit coming from the funds themselves. It will take us some time to see. The reason this thing has happened is that obviously, the private credit funds have been giving loans in a niche, which has been fairly well publicized, the banks were regulated out of.

回到你關於結構性融資曝險的問題。我想，信用市場同時存在信用供給方與信用需求方。我認為你在私募信貸市場看到的流動性動態，可能意味著由基金本身提供的信用供給會收縮。我們還需要一些時間才能看得更清楚。之所以會發生這件事，顯然是因為私募信貸基金一直在某個利基市場放款，這點已經相當廣為人知，而銀行因監管因素被迫退出了那個市場。

Now things could change in the US and so banks may come back in there. But generally speaking, when you look at the way we are exposed to it, which is in the way shown on the slide, which is working with the fund managers, I would imagine you're absolutely right that I think the growth of this thing is probably going to be leveling off or declining in the next year-or-so, but we have to give us some more time, but that will be a reasonable assumption.

現在美國的情況可能會改變，因此銀行可能會重新回到那裡。但一般來說，當你看我們的曝險方式——也就是投影片上所呈現的、與基金管理人合作的方式——我想你說得完全正確：我認為這個領域的成長在未來一年左右很可能會趨於持平或下滑。不過我們還需要再多一些時間觀察，但這會是一個合理的假設。

Robert Noble, Deutsche Bank.

Robert Noble，德意志銀行。

You sound very, very bullish on the outlook, but the only kind of a small PMA taken and the implied rate benefit at the top line and calling out consensus even on lower rates being too low. Is it not a bit perverse that an energy price shock that causes higher interest rates and lower economic growth outlook is actually a positive for bank earnings? So I guess what's the -- is there any negative risk in there from growth? Which parts of the book from a growth perspective would you be most worried about in this type of environment?

你們聽起來對前景非常、非常樂觀，但唯一有點小小的疑慮是：你們在營收端提到隱含的利率利多，並指出即使在較低利率情境下，共識預期也可能過低。那麼是否有點反常：一個能源價格衝擊導致利率更高、經濟成長前景更低，反而對銀行獲利是正面的？所以我想問的是——成長面是否存在任何負面風險？在這種環境下，從成長角度來看，你們最擔心資產組合中的哪些部分？

Yes. So look, you raised a very good question, Rob. And I think there is a -- there are two issues here. There's one of timing, and then there's one of certainty or knowledge. Clearly, inflation risk has increased with what's going on in the Middle East.

是的。你提出了一個非常好的問題，Rob。我認為這裡有——有兩個議題：一個是時間點，另一個是確定性或認知。很明顯，隨著中東局勢的發展，通膨風險已經上升。

And you can see it in the UK inflation numbers speaking just in the UK and over time, there are worries in the US as well. For a variety of reasons, it's not hit employment.

就英國而言，你可以從英國的通膨數據看到；而隨著時間推移，美國也有擔憂。出於各種原因，它尚未衝擊就業。

And growth in the UK at least until February was strong. So -- and growth in the US remains strong and their important sectoral reasons for why that is the case related a lot of course to tech. So -- and we said to you, Anna said that we are not seeing any impact on our retail or corporate credit portfolios in the UK or the US, especially the smaller companies. So all of that put together explains why credit conditions are generally good. I mean, we said that we expect impairment to be at the higher end of our cyclical range of 50 to 60 basis points.

而英國的成長至少到2月為止都很強勁。所以——美國的成長仍然強勁，且有一些重要的產業因素解釋了為何如此，當然很大一部分與科技有關。所以——我們也跟你們說過，Anna提到我們在英國或美國的零售或企業信用投資組合中，特別是較小型公司，並未看到任何影響。把這些因素綜合起來，就能解釋為何整體信用狀況普遍良好。我的意思是，我們說過我們預期減損會落在我們景氣循環區間50到60個基點的較高端。

And we've discussed NII, and we've discussed the interest rate income for the bank. The longer this thing goes on in the Middle East and the more inflation feeds into the economy, then there is a risk of growth or lower growth and then there's a risk potentially of portions of lower growth, including on credit. But we are not seeing it yet, and I don't think it's consensus, which is what we follow. That's the reason.

我們也討論了NII，並討論了本行的利息收入。中東局勢拖得越久、通膨越多地傳導到經濟中，就會出現成長風險或較低成長的風險，進而可能對部分領域（包括信用）帶來較低成長的風險。但我們目前還沒有看到，而且我不認為這已反映在我們所追蹤的市場共識中。原因就在這裡。

What you're seeing from us is prudent risk management. in the forms of the way we've talked about credit lending our approach to credit and the way Anna described a slight emphasis to weaker scenarios in calculating IFRS 9 related impairment, so what you're seeing from us is a little more prudent positioning, a little more prudent of waiting of impairment scenarios, but it's not yet played through mainstream consensus numbers or, of course, into what we experienced in the portfolio. Anna?

你們從我們這裡看到的是審慎的風險管理，體現在我們談到的放款與信用策略，以及Anna所描述的：在計算IFRS 9相關減損時，對較弱情境給予些微更高的權重。因此你們看到的是更審慎的部位配置、對減損情境更審慎的加權，但這些尚未反映到主流共識數字中，當然也尚未反映到我們在投資組合中實際經歷的情況。Anna？

Yes. Thank you, Venkat. I think the other thing I would call out, Rob, is that our confidence is drawn and relates to the plans that we continue to execute, and that's -- this is another quarter of execution. And of course, we're mindful of the environment, and Venkat's called out a few examples, but our focus is on executing the plan as it has been over the last few quarters and that's really what's delivering the momentum that you can see today and also the diversification that we have in the book, both geographically and between different types of business allow us to be resilient in quite a range of environments. But we're clearly mindful of the outlook.

是的。謝謝你，Venkat。我想我還要提醒你一點，Rob：我們的信心來自、也關聯於我們持續在執行的計畫——而這又是另一個執行到位的季度。當然，我們也留意外部環境，Venkat也舉了幾個例子，但我們的重點是像過去幾季一樣持續執行計畫，而這正是帶來你今天所看到的動能。此外，我們在資產組合上具備多元化，無論是地理分布或不同業務類型之間的分散，都使我們能在相當廣泛的環境中保持韌性。但我們顯然也留意前景。

Edward Firth, KBW.

Edward Firth，KBW。

I have two sort of related questions and I guess you partly covered it in the answer to Rob's. But I guess it's just -- I guess what we're all struggling with is the contrast between people like the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England saying markets are ignoring risks. There's an awful lot of volatility going on. People are not focusing on it. And the message from you, which is there aren't really any problems.

我有兩個算是相關的問題，我想你們在回答Rob時已經部分涵蓋了。但我想——我想我們大家都在掙扎的是：英格蘭銀行副總裁這類人士說市場忽視風險；市場波動非常大；人們沒有把注意力放在上面。可你們傳達的訊息卻是，並沒有真正的問題。

And so I'm just trying to get a sense -- so the way I'd ask the question is, what has to happen for that to be a problem? You must sensitize your book. Is it that the Middle East continues for much longer than expected? Is it the oil price of $150 is the big question mark because obviously, $100 is not a problem? So where -- what is an environment, which would have you guys thinking this is a problem for our book, and we're going to have to start taking some material numbers?

所以我只是想掌握一下——我會這樣問：要發生什麼事才會變成問題？你們一定會對資產組合做敏感度分析。是中東局勢持續的時間遠超預期嗎？還是油價到150美元才是最大的問號，因為顯然100美元不是問題？所以——在什麼樣的環境下，會讓你們覺得這對我們的資產組合是個問題，並且我們將不得不開始認列一些實質的數字？

I guess that's the first question.

我想這是第一個問題。

And then just related to that, I was struck both by the size and the high proportion of write-offs you took on the one-off impairment or the one-off exposure. And I just wondered, could you give us a sense, I mean, is this like a normal exposure to you? Do you have -- would this be like a top 10%? I mean how many of these sort of size, single name exposure do you have on your book? Would this be a very material one?

然後與此相關，我對你們在那筆一次性減損或一次性曝險上所認列的沖銷金額之大、以及沖銷比例之高，印象很深。我只是想知道，你們能否讓我們了解一下：我的意思是，這對你們來說算是正常的曝險嗎？這會是——例如前10%那種規模嗎？你們的資產組合裡有多少這種規模的單一名稱曝險？這會是一筆非常重大的曝險嗎？

And then I guess, secondly, related -- I guess you've been through all of them now. Is it something that I mean, can you give us some flavor as to why this was a one-off because it was an extraordinarily big number in itself and a big percentage write-off, if that makes sense?

然後我想，第二點，相關的——我想你們現在都已經處理完了。這是否是某種——我的意思是，你們能否提供一些說明，為什麼這是一筆一次性事件？因為就其本身而言，這是一個異常大的數字，而且沖銷比例也很高，如果這樣說得通的話？

Okay. Why don't I start Venkat and then I will hand to you? So Ed, I'll just reiterate, we are very mindful of the environment around us, and that's why we are managing risk and capital very, very carefully. But we go into this kind of environment with a resilience that would not have been there a few years ago. So we are operating with greater proportion of our capital focused on was over turns.

好的。Venkat，不如我先開始，然後再交給你？所以Ed，我再重申一次，我們非常留意周遭環境，這也是為什麼我們非常、非常謹慎地管理風險與資本。但我們進入這種環境時所具備的韌性，是幾年前所沒有的。因此，我們在運作上有更高比例的資本是聚焦在——在景氣下行時的承受能力上。

We have higher operating leverage, which gives us greater resilience. And of course, we have much higher levels of absolute capital. So if there is a deterioration, then we would face that in a completely different position as a bank. So that's number one.

我們有更高的營運槓桿，這讓我們更具韌性。當然，我們也擁有更高水準的絕對資本。因此，如果出現惡化，我們作為一家銀行將會以完全不同的狀態來面對。所以這是第一點。

Number two would be, as Venkat said, we continue to manage our risks carefully. He's talked about some changes that we are making around how we approach lending. I would also call out the way that we've managed the volatility in markets in the first quarter, so you can see both the bar and the single day trading loss that tells you how we are approaching risk in this kind of market. But you're right, to the extent that the situation intensifies, either in terms of inflation, R&D time, we might see that start to flow through into the real economy. But that's how we are positioning ourselves to manage those things robustly.

第二點是，如同 Venkat 所說，我們持續謹慎管理風險。他談到我們在放款方式上正在做的一些調整。我也想特別指出我們在第一季如何管理市場波動，因此你可以看到無論是整體期間或單日的交易損失情況，這都反映我們在這類市場中如何看待風險。不過你說得對，若情勢進一步升溫，無論是通膨或研發時間等面向，我們可能會看到這些開始傳導到實體經濟。但這就是我們如何定位自己，以更強健的方式管理這些因素。

Venkat?

Venkat？

Yes. So let me just continue on that question for a second, and then I'll come back to the -- to your second question. So what Anna said, we are managing our risks. We take a view to the future, but also look at the structural composition of the business, right? What you've seen in this quarter is in anticipation of greater volatility and greater economic weakness.

是的。讓我先就這個問題再延伸說一下，然後我會回到——回到你的第二個問題。正如 Anna 所說，我們正在管理風險。我們會以前瞻角度看待未來，同時也會檢視業務的結構性組成，對吧？你在本季看到的，是我們為了預期更大的波動與更疲弱的經濟而做的準備。

That has led to volatility in the financial markets themselves, which our trading businesses have been able to do well and because of the help that they're providing to clients and the intermediation as they did. So if you -- the question I always ask is, if on the first day of the quarter, you knew how the quarter would fold out, what results would you expect? And at the last year of the quarter, did you get the results that you thought you would expect, right? And if you look at our businesses, because of the structural changes which we are doing, A, what you see in each business is what we would have thought; B, the way the businesses interact also gives us protections. So coming back to the question that I think it was Rob who asked it.

這已導致金融市場本身的波動，而我們的交易業務表現良好，因為它們如同以往一樣，透過提供客戶協助與中介服務而受益。所以如果你——我常問的問題是：如果在本季第一天你就知道本季會如何發展，你會預期什麼樣的結果？而在本季最後一天，你得到的結果是否符合你原本的預期，對吧？如果你看我們的業務，因為我們正在進行結構性調整，A，你在各項業務中看到的表現符合我們原本的預期；B，各業務之間的互動也為我們提供了保護。因此回到我想是 Rob 提出的那個問題。

On the one hand, you're getting an advantage from interest rates. On another hand, you're getting an advantage from trading and trading-related activity. On yet another hand, you're getting the advantage in the investment bank from people seeking capital markets transactions and IPOs, right?

一方面，你從利率中獲得優勢；另一方面，你從交易及與交易相關的活動中獲得優勢；再另一方面，你在投資銀行業務中也受益於人們尋求資本市場交易與 IPO，對吧？

And then credit conditions still remain strong. If that changes, which it could, over time, the longer these things go on, then yes, you would have some issues on impairment, but you may still continue to get benefits from other sides of the portfolio, right? And then we've not spent some time on this call, but we do have fee businesses, transaction businesses, all of which will be important and relevant as people look to hedge financial exposures. So it's a diversified bank, diversified sources of revenue and it's important to focus on one or the other, but you've got to look at it holistically, and this quarter's results show you the importance of that.

而且信貸條件仍然強勁。如果這在時間推移下發生變化——確實有可能，這些事情拖得越久——那麼是的，你在減損方面可能會遇到一些問題，但你仍可能持續從投資組合的其他面向獲得好處，對吧？另外，我們在這通電話中沒有花太多時間談，但我們確實有手續費型業務、交易型業務，這些在大家尋求對沖金融曝險時都將非常重要且相關。因此，這是一家多元化的銀行、收入來源多元。聚焦某一項固然重要，但你必須整體來看，而本季的結果也顯示了這一點的重要性。

Then coming to the second question. First, I would take you to page 45, where we've gone through the history of our exposures to these things. And what we've said is, as a credit matter, we've had no losses or negligible losses across all of this. That's the first important thing. When fraud happens, right, and depending on the extent and sophistication of the fraud, the numbers are appreciable.

接著談第二個問題。首先，我會請你看第 45 頁，我們在那裡回顧了我們對這些事項的曝險歷史。我們所說的是，從信貸角度來看，我們在這些方面沒有損失或僅有可忽略的損失。這是第一個重要點。當詐欺發生時，對吧？而且取決於詐欺的程度與精密度，金額可能相當可觀。

I'll say two things. I don't like to lose a single dollar, a single pound to fraud.

我想說兩點。我不希望因詐欺損失任何一美元、任何一英鎊。

On the other hand, this business has been structured, has been performing well over the last number of years. It has been structured in such a way, and we've made fundamental improvements to it that we are able to absorb it. It doesn't mean I like it, it doesn't mean we won't take steps in which we are taking steps to reduce that, likelihood, minimize it and so on, but we can absorb it.

另一方面，這項業務在過去幾年以來的架構與表現都很好。它的設計方式，以及我們對其所做的根本性改進，使我們有能力吸收這些影響。這不代表我喜歡它，也不代表我們不會採取措施——我們確實正在採取措施——以降低其發生機率、將其最小化等等，但我們可以承受。

In a credit lending business, there's always a chance of that. We look to reduce it and minimize it by good risk management. There are obviously lessons which we have learned from watching these two situations and those lessons we've put in. And that's what I would say.

在信貸放款業務中，永遠存在這種可能性。我們會透過良好的風險管理來降低並將其最小化。顯然，我們從觀察這兩個事件中學到了教訓，而這些教訓我們也已經納入。這就是我想說的。

The last thing, I know this is the final question, if I may close on this. The message I'd like to leave all of with is, first of all, thank you for joining us. Thank you for being on this journey with us, thank you for the excellent feedback you give us on this call and between calls, what you're seeing is yet another quarter of the demonstration of the fulfillment of our strategy. Quarter after quarter after quarter, we've been improving this bank structurally in the ways we said we would and delivering in the ways we said we would across the bank, in the Investment Bank and increase in RoTE now to double digits, it's 15% this quarter.

最後一點，我知道這是最後一個問題，如果可以的話我想用這段作結。我想留給大家的訊息是：首先，感謝各位加入我們。感謝各位與我們一同走過這段旅程，感謝各位在這通電話中以及會議之間給予我們非常好的回饋。你們看到的是我們策略落實的又一個季度證明。一季又一季又一季，我們一直以我們所說的方式在結構上改善這家銀行，並以我們所說的方式在全行、在投資銀行交付成果；RoTE 也提升到雙位數，本季是 15%。

In US cards, an increase in RoTE. When we started this plan, it was 4%. We just printed an 18% quarter. The bank's RoTE itself is at 13.5%.

在美國信用卡業務方面，RoTE 也有所提升。我們開始這個計畫時是 4%。我們剛剛交出一個 18% 的季度表現。銀行本身的 RoTE 為 13.5%。

We are reiterating all our targets. -- strong capitalization. We're a 14.1% CET1 ratio, which is a little above the high end of the range. That shows you prudent planning, prudent stewardship of capital and with a view to what might come in the future, which some of the guys you have asked questions about, the growth in NII, the strength of our deposit base, the increase in UK corporate lending fulfillment of our RWA promises in the UK, increased client engagement in the investment bank and so on and so on and so on.

我們重申所有目標。——資本水準強勁。我們的 CET1 比率為 14.1%，略高於區間上緣。這顯示審慎的規劃、審慎的資本管理，並且考量未來可能出現的情況——你們當中有些人也就此提問——包括 NII 的成長、我們存款基礎的強勁、英國企業放款的增加、我們在英國對 RWA 承諾的兌現、投資銀行客戶參與度提升，等等等等等等。

So we've laid out our strategic plan. We've laid out the structural improvements, we look to deliver upon it quarter after quarter and to report to you that way quarter after quarter. That's our aim. Thank you very much for joining us.

因此，我們已提出策略計畫，也提出結構性改善；我們希望一季又一季地交付成果，並以同樣方式一季又一季向各位報告。這就是我們的目標。非常感謝各位加入我們。

Thank you, everybody. We look forward to seeing you on the road. And of course, we'll see some of you on Analyst's breakfast, but thank you for your questions.

謝謝大家。我們期待在路演中與各位見面。當然，我們也會在分析師早餐會上見到其中一些人，謝謝各位的提問。

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。