賓士域 (BC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Brunswick Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

早安.歡迎參加 Brunswick Corporation 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指令）。

I would now like to introduce Neha Clark, Senior Vice President, Enterprise Finance Brunswick Corporation. Thank you. You may begin.

現在，我想介紹 Brunswick Corporation 企業財務資深副總裁 Neha Clark。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are Dave Foulkes, Brunswick's CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, CFO. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during the call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的還有 Brunswick 的執行長 Dave Foulkes；以及財務長 Ryan Gwillim。在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想提醒大家，在電話會議中，我們的評論將包括對未來結果的某些前瞻性陳述。請記住，我們的實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。

For details on these factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release. All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com.

有關這些考慮因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們最近的 SEC 文件和今天的新聞稿。所有這些文件均可在我們的網站 brunswick.com 上找到。

During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix to this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results.

在我們的演示過程中，我們將參考某些非 GAAP 財務資訊。本簡報的附錄和今天結果附帶的未經審計的合併財務報表的對帳部分提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。

I will now turn the call over to Dave.

現在我將電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Neha, and good morning, everyone. We had a very solid finish to 2024, characterized by significant cash generation in the fourth quarter, further outboard engine market share gains, successful new product launches and optimal operating performance in the circumstances, all of which enabled us to conclude full year 2024, slightly ahead of our recent expectations.

謝謝，Neha，大家早安。我們在 2024 年取得了非常紮實的成績，其特點是第四季度產生了可觀的現金，舷外發動機市場份額進一步增加，新產品成功推出，並且在當前情況下實現了最佳的運營表現，所有這一切使我們能夠在 2024 年全年取得略高於我們最近的預期的成績。

Our ongoing diligent management of boat field inventory and production resulted in well balanced levels exiting the year with 36.8 weeks on hand in the US dealer pipeline. In line with prior expectations, US new boat retail sales ended 2024, down high single-digit percent versus 2023, with Brunswick performing slightly better than the industry in important premium segments. With dealer and retail inventories well positioned, our channel partners have shifted their focus towards early season boat shows, which have been fairly encouraging to date.

我們持續認真管理船舶現場庫存和生產，使年末的庫存水準保持均衡，美國經銷商庫存時間為 36.8 週。與先前的預期一致，截至 2024 年，美國新船零售額較 2023 年下降了高個位數百分比，而 Brunswick 在重要高端細分市場的表現略好於行業。由於經銷商和零售商庫存充足，我們的通路合作夥伴已將重點轉向早期船展，迄今為止，船展的業績相當令人鼓舞。

Our continued focus on cost containment, robust capital strategy execution and successful efforts to manage working capital resulted in full year free cash flow conversion of 92%, even as we continue to invest in new products and technologies to support strategic growth initiatives. In addition, we completed a total of $200 million of share repurchases in 2024.

我們持續注重成本控制、強而有力的資本策略執行和成功的營運資本管理，使得全年自由現金流轉換率達到 92%，同時我們持續投資新產品和新技術以支援策略成長計畫。此外，我們在 2024 年完成了總計 2 億美元的股票回購。

Turning to some highlights from our segments in the quarter. As anticipated, reduced production in our propulsion business resulted in lower net sales and operating earnings in the fourth quarter versus 2023. However, we continue to outperform the market and gained 110 basis points of US retail outboard engine share during the year in addition to achieving significant share increases at 2025 early season boat shows.

談談本季我們各部門的一些亮點。正如預期的那樣，我們的推進業務產量下降導致第四季度的淨銷售額和營業收入較 2023 年下降。然而，我們繼續跑贏市場，年內美國零售舷外發動機份額增加了 110 個基點，並且在 2025 年初的船展上實現了份額的大幅增長。

Our engine parts and accessories businesses delivered slightly lower net sales and earnings in the fourth quarter versus prior year but grew earnings and operating margins for the full year led by the products portion of the business and the operational efficiencies resulting from the completed transition to the Brownsburg, Indiana distribution center.

我們的引擎零件和配件業務第四季度的淨銷售額和收益較上年略有下降，但全年收益和營業利潤率均有所增長，這主要得益於業務的產品部分以及完成向印第安納州布朗斯堡配送中心的過渡所帶來的營運效率。

Navico Group sales were essentially flat versus fourth quarter 2023, with well-received and positioned new products supporting higher net sales in the aftermarket business versus prior year and a solid Holiday Season performance, which together with continued cost control and complexity reduction resulted in sequentially higher sales and adjusted earnings versus the third quarter.

Navico 集團的銷售額與 2023 年第四季基本持平，廣受好評且定位明確的新產品支撐售後業務的淨銷售額較上年同期增加，假日季表現穩健，再加上持續的成本控制和複雜性降低，導致銷售額和調整後收益較第三季度連續增加。

Our boat business delivered sales and earnings in the quarter, consistent with expectations, while continuing to ensure healthy pipeline inventory levels as we enter 2025. Strong demand for premium products, together with market share gains in several categories, helped provide a stable baseline for 2025.

我們的船舶業務本季的銷售額和收益符合預期，同時在進入 2025 年時繼續確保健康的管道庫存水準。對高端產品的強勁需求，加上多個類別的市佔率成長，為 2025 年提供了穩定的基準。

Finally, Freedom Boat Club had another strong quarter, continuing to integrate its recent acquisitions and achieving over 600,000 annual member trips for the second consecutive year. Over the past 12 months, Freedom added many new locations in the US, Europe, Australia and New Zealand and continues on a path to add more regions enabled by its convenience, statistic and cycle-resistant business model.

最後，自由船俱樂部又度過了一個強勁的季度，繼續整合其最近的收購，並連續第二年實現年度會員旅行超過 60 萬次。在過去的 12 個月中，Freedom 在美國、歐洲、澳洲和紐西蘭增加了許多新門市，並繼續憑藉其便利性、統計性和抗週期性商業模式拓展更多地區。

Turning to the external environment. We have obviously seen some welcome interest rate release in September, which was too late to affect the 2024 season, which should be a tailwind for the 2025 season. The uncertain tariff environment has, of course, become an elevated consideration. We have the benefit of reducing the large majority of our products in the US and for the US market and we have significantly reduced our exposure to China over the past few years.

轉向外部環境。我們顯然看到 9 月出現了一些令人欣喜的利率釋放，這對於影響 2024 年的賽季來說已經太晚了，但這應該會成為 2025 年賽季的順風。當然，不確定的關稅環境已成為一個重要的考慮因素。我們的好處是減少了在美國和美國市場的大部分產品，並且在過去幾年中我們大幅減少了對中國的依賴。

However, at current tariff rates, we anticipate an annualized impact of approximately $35 million in 2025. We are preparing for a range of scenarios and have many short- and long-term mitigating actions already underway, including continued migration of our supply base, inventory staging and optimization of our facilities.

然而，按照目前的關稅稅率，我們預計 2025 年的年化影響約為 3,500 萬美元。我們正在為一系列情況做準備，並已採取許多短期和長期緩解措施，包括繼續遷移我們的供應基地、庫存分期和優化我們的設施。

Dealer sentiment is fairly solid with focus shifted towards early season boat shows. We were pleased to see US Small Business confidence improving in the most recent surveys.

經銷商情緒相當穩定，焦點轉向早期的船展。我們很高興看到最近的調查中美國小型企業信心有所增強。

As we enter 2025, discounting and promotion levels remain elevated, particularly on prior model year products and as anticipated, OEMs and channel partners are continuing to be cautious in their production and ordering patterns.

隨著我們進入 2025 年，折扣和促銷水平仍然較高，特別是對於前幾年的產品，並且正如預期的那樣，OEM 和通路合作夥伴在生產和訂購模式上繼續保持謹慎。

However, we continue to see strong voting participation, supporting our resilient recurring revenue businesses, and there is high interest in and good acceptance of our many fresh innovative new products. Finally, the previously proposed North Atlantic Right Whale Vessel Speed Restriction rule was recently withdrawn from the regulatory agenda.

然而，我們繼續看到強勁的投票參與度，支持我們具有彈性的經常性收入業務，人們對我們的許多新鮮創新的新產品有很高的興趣和良好的接受度。最後，先前提出的北大西洋露脊鯨船隻速度限制規則最近被從監管議程撤銷。

Moving now to US industry retail performance. US outboard engine industry retail units declined 8% on a full year basis versus prior year, with Mercury Marine outperforming the industry. As mentioned, Mercury Marine continues to gain share, delivering 110 basis points of US outboard engine market share increase for the full year.

現在來談談美國產業零售業績。美國舷外機產業零售單位全年年減 8%，而水星海事的表現優於整個產業。如上所述，水星海事的份額持續增長，全年美國舷外發動機市場的份額增加了 110 個基點。

We have diligently managed both pipeline levels and for the full year, wholesale shipments were down 24% in a retail environment that was down high single digits, leading to healthy US year-end inventory of 36.8 weeks on hand, premium fiberglass pipelines finished well below historical levels.

我們認真管理兩個管道水平，全年批發出貨量下降 24%，零售環境也下降了個位數，導緻美國年底庫存保持在 36.8 週的健康水平，優質玻璃纖維管道遠低於歷史水平。

Before I turn it over to Ryan, I wanted to walk through the components of our full year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of between $3.50 and $5 per share. As many of you are aware, there are several unique factors that will influence this year's earnings profile with some outside our direct control. This bridge illustrates our current view of the moving pieces.

在將其交給 Ryan 之前，我想先介紹一下我們 2025 年全年調整後每股收益預期（每股 3.50 美元至 5 美元）的組成部分。大家可能都知道，有幾個獨特的因素會影響今年的獲利狀況，其中一些因素是我們無法直接控制的。這座橋闡明了我們目前對移動部件的看法。

In the areas over which we have more control, we believe that we'll grow earnings as a result of additional volume primarily in the back half of the year. In addition, we have significant cost reduction efforts underway with an anticipated benefit of approximately $1.25 per share, which will be partly offset by the variable compensation set of $1 per share.

在我們能夠更好地控制的領域，我們相信，由於銷售增加（主要是在今年下半年），我們的收益將會增加。此外，我們正在大力削減成本，預計每股收益約為 1.25 美元，但每股 1 美元的浮動薪酬將部分抵消這一收益。

The combination of tariffs and the impact of foreign exchange rates creates a headwind of just under $0.80 per share split roughly evenly. The tariff estimate reflects our base impact predicated on current rules and rates, which Ryan will speak more about in a moment.

關稅和外匯匯率的影響共同造成了每股略低於 0.80 美元的阻力，兩者大致均等。關稅估算反映了我們根據當前規則和稅率預測的基本影響，Ryan 稍後將對此進行詳細介紹。

The further strengthening of the US dollar versus several currencies, including the Euro, Peso, Real and others results in primarily transaction losses as our non-US businesses purchased product from our US operations. We believe we can partially offset this impact through pricing for certain markets and product lines but we'll not be able to offset the full impact.

美元兌歐元、比索、雷亞爾等多種貨幣進一步走強，主要導致交易損失，因為我們的非美國業務從我們的美國業務購買產品。我們相信，我們可以透過針對某些市場和產品線的定價來部分抵消這種影響，但無法抵消全部影響。

I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to provide additional comments on our financial performance and outlook.

現在我將把電話轉給瑞安，讓他對我們的財務表現和前景提供進一步的評論。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's fourth quarter results were slightly ahead of expectations but remained below prior year due to the continued challenging US retail marine market. Versus the fourth quarter of 2023, net sales in the quarter were down 15% with adjusted operating margins of 4%, resulting in an adjusted EPS of $0.24.

謝謝，戴夫，大家早安。由於美國零售船舶市場持續面臨挑戰，Brunswick 第四季業績略高於預期，但仍低於去年同期。與 2023 年第四季相比，本季淨銷售額下降 15%，調整後的營業利潤率為 4%，調整後的每股收益為 0.24 美元。

Fourth quarter sales were below prior year as the impact of continued lower production and wholesale ordering by dealers, OEMs and retailers, coupled with higher discounts in select segments and unfavorable changes in foreign currency exchange rates were only partially offset by annual price increases and well-received new products.

第四季銷售額低於去年同期，原因是經銷商、原始設備製造商和零售商的產量和批發訂單持續下降，加上部分細分市場的折扣增加以及外匯匯率的不利變化，而年度價格上漲和廣受歡迎的新產品只能部分抵消這些影響。

Adjusted operating earnings and margins declined versus the fourth quarter of 2023 resulting from the impact of lower net sales and lower absorption from decreased production levels, partially offset by ongoing cost control efforts. Lastly, we generated $278 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, a record for any fourth quarter in Brunswick's history.

調整後的營業收入和利潤率較 2023 年第四季有所下降，原因是淨銷售額下降和生產水準下降導致的吸收量下降，但持續的成本控制努力部分抵消了這一影響。最後，我們在第四季創造了 2.78 億美元的自由現金流，創下了 Brunswick 歷史上第四季的最高紀錄。

On a full year basis, sales were down 18%, with adjusted operating margins of 9.5%, resulting in adjusted diluted EPS of $4.57, down 48%. Gross margin performance remained steady despite the top line softness, while operating expenses were down more than 7% versus 2023 levels even after absorbing the impact of acquisitions as the entire enterprise remains focused on reducing controllable costs. The strong Q4 free cash flow resulted in a full year free cash flow conversion of 92%, which is above our annual target of 80%.

全年銷售額下降 18%，調整後營業利潤率為 9.5%，調整後稀釋每股收益為 4.57 美元，下降 48%。儘管營收疲軟，毛利率表現仍保持穩定，而即使在吸收了收購的影響後，營業費用仍比 2023 年的水平下降了 7% 以上，因為整個企業仍然專注於降低可控成本。強勁的第四季自由現金流使得全年自由現金流轉換率達到 92%，高於我們 80% 的年度目標。

Now we'll look at each reporting segment, starting with our propulsion business, which saw a 24% decrease in sales resulting from continued efforts to moderate field inventory partially offset by continued market share gains in outboard engines. Mercury lowered its US engine pipeline by over 25,000 units in 2024, with production rates in the US down 65% in the second half of the year, which together should allow for wholesale improvement in 2025. Segment operating earnings were below prior year due to the impact of sales declines, lower absorption and higher labor and material inflation, partially offset by cost control measures.

現在讓我們來看看每個報告部門，首先是我們的推進業務，該業務的銷售額下降了 24%，這歸因於我們持續努力調節現場庫存，但舷外發動機市場份額的持續增長部分抵消了這一下降。水星公司將其 2024 年的美國引擎產量減少了 25,000 多台，下半年美國的生產力將下降 65%，這些因素結合起來應該會使 2025 年的情況全面改善。由於銷售額下滑、吸收量下降、勞動力及材料通膨上升的影響，分部營業利潤低於上年，但成本控制措施部分抵銷了這一影響。

Our aftermarket led engine parts and accessories business had another solid quarter. Segment sales were slightly down as the impact from slightly lower domestic sales were only partially offset by higher sales in certain international markets, while segment adjusted operating earnings were impacted by the sales declines and higher material inflation, which more than offset the impact of pricing and lower operating expenses.

我們的售後市場主導的引擎零件和配件業務又度過了一個強勁的季度。分部銷售額略有下降，因為國內銷售略有下降的影響僅被某些國際市場銷售額的增加部分抵消，而分部調整後的營業收入受到銷售額下降和材料通膨上升的影響，但這超過了定價和營運費用下降的影響。

For the full year, aided by the efficiencies generated by the completed transition to our new state-of-the-art facility in Brownsburg, Indiana, our engine P&A segment grew adjusted operating earnings despite the slower retail conditions, yet another reminder of the importance of this recurring annuity-based high-profit business.

全年來看，得益於向位於印第安納州布朗斯堡的新的先進工廠的完全過渡所產生的效率，儘管零售狀況較慢，但我們的發動機 P&A 部門的調整後營業收入仍實現了增長，這再次提醒我們這項基於經常性年金的高利潤業務的重要性。

Navico Group had essentially flat sales versus same period in 2023 as the business experienced softer marine OEM orders and the continued weak RV manufacturing environment in the quarter, which were mostly offset by the higher net sales and the resilient aftermarket business.

Navico 集團的銷售額與 2023 年同期基本持平，因為該業務在本季度經歷了船舶 OEM 訂單的疲軟和 RV 製造環境的持續疲軟，但這些影響大部分被更高的淨銷售額和彈性的售後市場業務所抵消。

Operating earnings decreased in the quarter, primarily as a result of the slight net sales declines and intangible asset impairment charges, which more than offset the benefit of cost control measures. Note that as expected, Navico improved sales and adjusted earnings sequentially versus the third quarter as a result of the strong performance in the aftermarket business and ongoing cost control measures.

本季營業收入下降，主要原因是淨銷售額略有下降以及無形資產減損費用抵消了成本控制措施帶來的好處。值得注意的是，正如預期的那樣，由於售後業務的強勁表現和持續的成本控制措施，Navico 的銷售額和調整後收益與第三季度相比有所提高。

Finally, our Boat business had sales and operating earnings below the fourth quarter of 2023, consistent with lower planned production levels across many of our brands. Similar to my comments on Mercury, our Boat Group also did an excellent job managing field inventory, reducing full year production by over 30% and finishing the year with more than 1,000 fewer boats in the US pipeline.

最後，我們的船舶業務的銷售額和營業收入低於 2023 年第四季度，這與我們許多品牌的計畫生產水準較低一致。與我對水星的評論類似，我們的船舶集團在管理現場庫存方面也做得非常出色，將全年產量減少了 30% 以上，年底美國管道中的船舶數量減少了 1,000 多艘。

Sales decreased 18% in the quarter, resulting from the anticipated softer wholesale orders as dealers continue to manage pipeline levels, coupled with higher levels of selective discounting which offset favorable mix and the impact of pricing actions taken earlier in the year. Segment adjusted operating earnings declined resulting from net sales declines and lower absorption due to the reduced production levels. Freedom Boat Club delivered another strong quarter, contributing approximately 12% of sales to the segment.

本季銷售額下降 18%，原因是經銷商繼續管理通路水平，預計批發訂單將減少，再加上選擇性折扣水平提高，抵消了有利的產品組合和今年早些時候採取的定價行動的影響。由於淨銷售額下降和生產水準下降導致吸收量下降，分部調整後營業收入下降。自由船俱樂部 (Freedom Boat Club) 再創佳績，為該部門貢獻了約 12% 的銷售額。

We successfully executed our capital strategy in 2024, ending the year with $287 million of cash while funding strategic growth in our businesses and returning capital to shareholders. We deployed $167 million for capital expenditures on exciting new products and growth projects across our businesses, which we believe will drive future revenue and earnings growth.

我們在 2024 年成功實施了我們的資本策略，年底時擁有 2.87 億美元的現金，同時為我們業務的策略成長提供資金並向股東返還資本。我們已投入 1.67 億美元的資本支出用於各項業務中令人興奮的新產品和成長項目，我們相信這將推動未來收入和獲利的成長。

In addition, as Dave mentioned, we took advantage of market and Brunswick's share value dislocation and repurchased $200 million of our own shares, representing approximately 2.5 million shares or 4% of the company. We also increased our dividend for the 12th consecutive year.

此外，正如戴夫所提到的，我們利用市場和 Brunswick 的股價錯位，回購了價值 2 億美元的自有股票，約占公司 250 萬股或 4% 的股份。我們也連續第12年增加股利。

Lastly, we reduced net inventory by 12% versus end of the year levels in 2023, and anticipate a similar reduction throughout 2025. The result was a second half working capital generation of over $170 million with benefits continuing into 2025, as you will see shortly when I just discussed 2025 guidance.

最後，我們將 2023 年的淨庫存量較年底水準減少 12%，並預計 2025 年全年的淨庫存量也將出現類似的減少。結果是下半年營運資金產生了超過 1.7 億美元，並且收益將持續到 2025 年，正如我在剛才討論 2025 年指引時您就會看到的那樣。

As we look at our outlook for the year, 2025 has the potential to be a year of steadily easing financial conditions. And while we entered the year with cautious outlook, particularly for the first quarter, we remain extremely focused on delivering steady free cash flow and resilient earnings per share, resulting in continued strong shareholder returns.

展望今年，2025 年有可能成為金融狀況穩定放鬆的一年。儘管我們以謹慎的態度進入新的一年，特別是第一季度，但我們仍然非常專注於實現穩定的自由現金流和強勁的每股收益，從而繼續為股東帶來強勁的回報。

Our disciplined pipeline management, strong operational performance and continued investment in new products and growth, coupled with prudent cost containment actions, strong cash management and generation, and a thoughtful capital strategy provide the necessary controllable levers in this uncertain consumer and business environment.

我們嚴謹的通路管理、強勁的營運績效、對新產品和成長的持續投資，加上審慎的成本控制行動、強大的現金管理和生成以及周到的資本策略，為這種不確定的消費者和商業環境提供了必要的可控槓桿。

The result is the guidance you see on this slide, as reviewed by Dave earlier, including net sales of between $5.2 billion and $5.6 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of between $3.50 and $5. We anticipate free cash flow in excess of $350 million with strong free cash flow conversion. Note that we anticipate Q1 looking very similar to the fourth quarter just completed with continued improvement in wholesale order patterns as we progress throughout the year.

結果就是您在這張投影片上看到的指引，正如 Dave 之前所審查過的，包括淨銷售額在 52 億美元到 56 億美元之間，調整後的稀釋每股收益在 3.50 美元到 5 美元之間。我們預計自由現金流將超過 3.5 億美元，且自由現金流轉換率強勁。請注意，我們預計第一季與剛結束的第四季度非常相似，隨著全年的進展，批發訂單模式將繼續改善。

Our underlying market assumption for this guidance is a US boat retail market this flat to 2024 in terms of retail units sold. We continue to believe that there are good reasons to believe that the market could outperform a flat assumption but we consider this most balanced assumption on which to base our initial guidance.

我們對本指引的基本市場假設是，到 2024 年，美國船舶零售市場在零售單位銷售方面將保持穩定。我們仍然相信，有充分的理由相信市場表現可能優於持平的假設，但我們認為這是最平衡的假設，我們最初的指導將以此為基礎。

I'll end my prepared remarks this morning with a quick review on other P&L and cash flow assumptions underlying our initial guidance. We believe that our spending on capital expenditures and annual depreciation will be similar to 2024 levels.

今天上午，我將透過快速回顧我們初步指引中所依據的其他損益表和現金流假設來結束我準備好的發言。我們相信，我們的資本支出和年度折舊支出將與 2024 年的水準相似。

We plan to generate approximately $100 million of net working capital, as we anticipate inventory levels continuing to moderate throughout the year, building on the work started in 2024. Our plan assumes that we continue our systematic share repurchases with a minimum of $80 million of repurchases done in the year, which could increase in the event that cash generation outpaces our initial expectations.

我們計劃產生約 1 億美元的淨營運資本，因為我們預計庫存水準將在 2024 年開始的工作的基礎上全年繼續放緩。我們的計劃假設我們繼續有系統地回購股票，今年至少回購 8,000 萬美元，如果現金產生速度超過我們最初的預期，回購金額可能會增加。

Note, we have already completed $10 million of repurchases in January, taking advantage of significant value dislocation between our recent share price and our future outlook.

請注意，我們已經在一月份完成了 1000 萬美元的回購，利用了我們近期股價與未來前景之間的巨大價值錯位。

Our guidance on tariffs assume $30 million to $40 million of incremental tariffs in 2025, primarily a result of existing China 301 tariffs and the absence of benefits from certain exclusions and catch-up duty drawbacks that expired or were completed in 2024 and will not repeat this year. We are actively working to mitigate the overall tariff impact through inventory staging, pricing and other methods, and we'll be ready to accelerate mitigation efforts should new tariff laws be enacted throughout the year.

我們對關稅的指導假設是，2025 年的增量關稅為 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元，這主要是由於現有的中國 301 關稅以及某些排除和補徵關稅退稅優惠的缺失，這些優惠已於 2024 年到期或完成，並且今年不會重複。我們正在積極努力透過庫存分期、定價和其他方法來減輕整體關稅的影響，並且如果全年頒布新的關稅法，我們將準備好加快緩解措施。

As we continue to see foreign currency rate fluctuations, our guidance assumes $30 million to $40 million in unfavorable earnings impact due primarily to the strong US dollar impacting our non-US operations. Finally, and just as a reminder, we have been very diligent in managing our debt structure, which is well positioned with no meaningful debt coming due until 2029.

由於我們繼續看到外匯匯率波動，我們的預期是不利的盈利影響為 3,000 萬至 4,000 萬美元，這主要歸因於強勢美元影響了我們的美國以外業務。最後，提醒一下，我們一直非常勤勉地管理我們的債務結構，我們的債務結構處於良好狀態，在 2029 年之前沒有任何重大債務到期。

I will now pass the call back to Dave for concluding remarks.

我現在將電話轉回給戴夫，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, Ryan. We're extremely pleased with the enormous excitement generated by Brunswick's 6th year exhibiting at the Consumer Electronics Show in early January, where we showcased our full portfolio of already commercialized and upcoming new ACEs and Boating Intelligence products, technologies and concepts. We've also seen positive momentum and sentiment from consumers and dealers at the major early season boat shows, including Dusseldorf, New York, Toronto and Minneapolis. Year-to-date, our aggregate unit boat sales across all boat shows are up 13% versus prior year.

謝謝，瑞安。我們非常高興，Brunswick 第六次參加 1 月初的消費電子展，並在展會上展示了我們已商業化和即將推出的全新 ACE 和划船智能產品、技術和概念的全部產品組合，引起了極大的轟動。我們也在杜塞爾多夫、紐約、多倫多和明尼阿波利斯等主要早期船展上看到了消費者和經銷商的積極勢頭和情緒。今年迄今為止，我們在所有船展上的總船舶銷售額比去年同期成長了 13%。

At the Dusseldorf Boat Show, the world's largest indoor show, several of our bulk brands had record sales, including Sea Ray, which surpassed last year's record total by more than 20% and Quicksilver, which tripled unit sales versus prior year. We were encouraged to see the consumer strength and buying interest extend across our premium and core brands.

在全球最大的室內遊艇展——杜塞爾多夫遊艇展上，我們的多個散裝品牌都創下了銷售記錄，其中 Sea Ray 的銷量比去年的銷售記錄高出 20% 以上，Quicksilver 的銷量較上年增長了兩倍。我們很高興看到消費者的購買力和購買興趣延伸至我們的高端品牌和核心品牌。

Mercury has also had a very robust start to the show season, gaining share at multiple shows. In Dusseldorf, Mercury overall outboard share increased dramatically from 48% in 2024 to 55% in 2025. For larger 150-horsepower and above outboards, Mercury had a 69% share and Mercury outboards were present on every outboard-powered flagship and/or new boat larger than 7 meters. At the Toronto show, Mercury's outboard share was also up significantly, reaching 45% up from just under 38% in 2024.

水星在演出季開局也非常強勁，在多個演出中都獲得了份額。在杜塞爾多夫，水星整體舷外機份額將從 2024 年的 48% 大幅增加到 2025 年的 55%。對於 150 匹馬力及以上的大型舷外機，水星佔有 69% 的份額，每艘採用舷外機的旗艦船和/或長度超過 7 公尺的新船上都有水星的舷外機。在多倫多航展上，水星的舷外機份額也大幅上升，從 2024 年的不到 38% 上升至 45%。

Navico Group also had a strong Dusseldorf Show with its technology present on more than 80% of boats on display. We continue our rapid cadence of exciting new product launches from across our businesses and brands. Navico Group recently began shipping its new Lowrance Elite FS fishfinders, and will shortly begin shipping its new industry-leading Recon trolling motors under the Lowrance and Simrad brands for freshwater and saltwater applications, respectively.

Navico 集團在杜塞爾多夫船舶展上表現強勁，80% 以上的參展船舶上都展示了其技術。我們將繼續以快速的節奏推出涵蓋我們各個業務和品牌的令人興奮的新產品。Navico Group 最近開始發售其新型 Lowrance Elite FS 魚探儀，並將很快開始發售其新型行業領先的 Recon 電動馬達，分別以 Lowrance 和 Simrad 品牌發售，適用於淡水和鹹水應用。

At the upcoming Miami show, Simrad will launch its most advanced ever multifunction display, which uses the latest version of its unique Android based operating system and a new ultra- fast processor.

在即將舉行的邁阿密展會上，Simrad 將推出其迄今為止最先進的多功能顯示器，該顯示器採用其獨特的基於 Android 的作業系統的最新版本和新型超快處理器。

Our Boat Business continues to introduce outstanding new products to meet the needs of domestic and international customers at all price points and recently launched the new Bayliner V-Series and the Sea Ray SDX 270 hybrid surf boat at the Dusseldorf show.

我們的船舶業務不斷推出優秀的新產品，以滿足各個價位的國內外客戶的需求，最近在杜塞爾多夫展會上推出了新型 Bayliner V 系列和 Sea Ray SDX 270 混合衝浪船。

Freedom Boat Club is expanding into New Zealand and recently partnered with our distribution partner, Touron to begin opening locations in Madrid. In addition to our slate of exciting new products and solutions for recreational markets, Textron Systems recently announced its partnership with Brunswick to produce the Tsunami autonomous marine surface vessel for US and allied navies. The vessel utilizes a Brunswick hull, a Mercury propulsion system and a Simrad radar paired with Textron's autonomous control system, and is another example of Brunswick's unique ability to supply leading edge system solutions.

自由船俱樂部 (Freedom Boat Club) 正在向紐西蘭擴張，最近與我們的分銷夥伴 Touron 合作，開始在馬德里開設分店。除了我們為休閒市場推出的一系列令人興奮的新產品和解決方案之外，德事隆系統最近還宣布與 Brunswick 合作，為美國及其盟國海軍生產海嘯自主水面艦艇。該船採用 Brunswick 船體、Mercury 推進系統和 Simrad 雷達，並搭配 Textron 的自主控制系統，這是 Brunswick 提供尖端系統解決方案的獨特能力的另一個例證。

As you all know, we pride ourselves on being an employer of choice on being an innovator in our space and on being a responsible and trustworthy company. And for the 3rd consecutive year, we again surpassed 100 awards for our people, our culture, our products and our innovation.

眾所周知，我們為自己是一家首選雇主、行業創新者以及一家負責任且值得信賴的公司而感到自豪。連續第三年，我們憑藉員工、文化、產品和創新榮獲超過 100 個獎項。

Notably, 15% of our awards are national awards from outlets such as Newsweek, USA TODAY, Time and Forbes. One highlight in 2024 being our number 1 ranking in the engineering and manufacturing category in Time Magazine's list of America's Best Midsized Companies.

值得注意的是，我們獲得的獎項中有 15% 是來自《新聞週刊》、《今日美國》、《時代》和《富比士》等媒體的國家級獎項。2024 年的一大亮點是我們在《時代》雜誌美國最佳中型公司榜單的工程和製造類別中排名第一。

Finally, on January 15, 2025, we celebrated the 100th anniversary of our listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Brunswick is the 35th company currently listed to cross the 100-year milestone.

最後，2025年1月15日，我們慶祝了在紐約證券交易所上市100週年。布倫瑞克 (Brunswick) 是目前上市的第 35 家跨越百年里程碑的公司。

Before I finish, I'd like to remind you of our upcoming investor and analyst events during the Miami Boat Show, including a tour about Brunswick's many exhibits at the show, followed by a cocktail hour at the Ritz-Carlton.

在結束之前，我想提醒大家我們在邁阿密遊艇展期間即將舉行的投資者和分析師活動，包括參觀 Brunswick 在展會上的眾多展品，以及隨後在麗思卡爾頓酒店舉行的雞尾酒會。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now open the line for questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在開始回答提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Craig Kennison, Baird.

克雷格·肯尼森，貝爾德。

I wanted to ask about your cost savings. Can you help us unpack that $1.25 cost savings in the EPS bridge that you mentioned, Dave. Just curious where those savings are coming from?

我想詢問一下你們的成本節省狀況。戴夫，你能幫我們解開你提到的 EPS 橋中的 1.25 美元的成本節省嗎？只是好奇這些省下的錢是從哪裡來的？

Yes, thanks for the question. Yes, a number of places, really. I think if you -- kind of the base of it really is kind of run rate savings that we began to generate even in 2024. If you look from 01 January 2024 to 31 December, we unfortunately had to exit about 20% of our hourly staff and about 7% of our salaried staff. The majority of that happened in the back half of the year when it was clear that we need to reduce our production levels to support kind of year-end inventory levels that we were -- that we needed to go into 2025. So we'll get a full year run rate of those savings in 2025, which is significant.

是的，謝謝你的提問。是的，確實有很多地方。我認為，如果你 — — 它的基礎實際上是一種運行率節省，我們在 2024 年就開始產生這種節省。如果從 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日來看，我們很遺憾必須解僱約 20% 的時薪和約 7% 的受薪員工。其中大部分發生在下半年，當時很明顯我們需要降低生產水準以支援我們需要進入 2025 年的年底庫存水準。因此，我們將在 2025 年獲得這些節省的全年運行率，這是有意義的。

The other thing to think about is that as we were kind of under significantly underproducing retail in the back half of 2024, it is a pretty inefficient process. So I think we did a good job, best job that we could have done in the circumstances but we really were producing at low levels.

另一件需要考慮的事情是，由於我們在 2024 年下半年的零售產量嚴重不足，因此這是一個相當低效的過程。所以我認為我們做得很好，在當時的情況下我們已經做到了最好，但是我們的產量確實很低。

Ryan will maybe talk about it later, but we only produced about 10,000 units, I think, in our boat business. We certainly significantly underproduced retail in our engine business and elsewhere. That is an inefficient thing to do. You've always got too much labor. You've always got too many shifts, your production lines are not reoptimized what lower rates, there's no retraining possible or modest amounts of retraining possible in that period of time.

瑞安也許稍後會談論這個，但我認為，我們的船舶業務只生產了大約 10,000 艘。我們的引擎業務和其他業務的零售產量確實嚴重不足。這樣做是沒有效率的。你總是有太多的勞動。你總是有太多的班次，你的生產線沒有重新優化，因此在較低的費率下，在那段時間內不可能進行再培訓，或者不可能進行適量的再培訓。

So as we go into 2025, we highlighted some of the additional potential headwinds that we face with tariffs and FX, but really, we go in with a much more optimized operating position. We're staffed correctly, we optimized our production lines. In a lot of cases, we've been able to go back after our suppliers and the negotiate cost reductions.

因此，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們強調了我們在關稅和外匯方面面臨的一些額外潛在阻力，但實際上，我們的營運狀況更加優化。我們的人員配備正確，我們優化了生產線。在很多情況下，我們能夠回到供應商並協商降低成本。

On top of that, we'll be doing other things during the course of the year. But in a lot of ways, we are set up as a very efficient operation going into 2025, which is a big benefit throughout the year.

除此之外，我們今年還會做其他事。但在很多方面，我們將在 2025 年打造一個非常有效率的營運體系，這對全年來說都是一個巨大的優勢。

Mike Swartz, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Swartz。

Maybe just following up on Craig's question, a little more detail. I mean of the $1.25, which I think works out about $100 million or so, I guess how much of that is from things that have already been enacted versus things to come? And then I guess how much of that is structural versus maybe temporary in nature where we'd see maybe some of those costs come back when volume returns?

也許只是跟進 Craig 的問題，更詳細一點。我的意思是，這 125 億美元大約相當於 1 億美元左右，我猜這其中有多少是來自已經實施的措施，有多少是來自即將實施的措施？然後我想問其中有多少是結構性的，有多少是暫時性的，當產量恢復時我們可能會看到其中一些成本回升？

Yes. I don't have a complete number for that, but Ryan and I would just probably 50-50.

是的。我沒有一個完整的數字，但是我和瑞恩的比例可能是 50-50。

Above yes.

以上是。

Above 50-50 probably. I think your costs coming back, first of all, we learned how to operate more efficiently. So we are always reluctant to add back fixed costs anywhere and I think the amount of kind of variable cost that we add back will obviously depend on how volumes progressed during the year. I do not imagine us adding back a lot of that cost in certainly in 2025 and probably not a lot of cost in 2026 either.

可能高於 50-50。我認為你的成本回來了，首先，我們學會如何更有效地運作。因此，我們始終不願意在任何地方增加固定成本，我認為，我們增加的變動成本金額顯然取決於一年內銷售量的成長情況。我不認為我們會在 2025 年增加很多成本，而且在 2026 年可能也不會增加很多成本。

But there are projects that we have already underway that didn't really yield material benefits in 2024 that are yielding or will yield benefits in 2025. And they're a combination of supply chain projects, operating efficiencies where we can make our plants and production lines even more efficient for example.

但是，我們已經在進行的一些項目在 2024 年並沒有真正產生實質效益，但在 2025 年卻會產生或將會產生效益。它們是供應鏈專案和營運效率的組合，例如，我們可以使我們的工廠和生產線更有效率。

We'll be combining multiple products onto a single production line, for example, at some of our boat facilities that we were not able to do in 2024 until we go through shutdowns and other things over the course of the year or the back half of the year and undertook retraining and those kind of things.

我們將把多種產品組合到一條生產線上，例如，在我們的一些船舶設施中，我們在 2024 年無法做到這一點，直到我們在當年或下半年經歷停工和其他事情，並進行再培訓和諸如此類的事情。

We're certainly going after a lot of value engineering work, which will reduce COGS on our products. That will be a significant focus of our engineering and operational functions during the course of the year. So these savings that we're projecting are not speculative. Every cent of that $1.25 has a plan behind it. Some of it is already in our pocket, if you like, but there's significant work to do, but we know what we're going to do.

我們當然會進行大量的價值工程工作，這將降低我們產品的銷貨成本。這將是我們今年工程和營運職能的重點。因此，我們預測的這些節省並非推測。這 1.25 美元中​​的每一分錢背後都有一個計劃。如果你願意的話，其中一部分已經到達了，但還有大量工作要做，但我們知道我們要做什麼。

Yes. Just one other comment. I think you're hearing this from Dave, a lot of these will be found in the gross margin line. So these are not all OpEx. In fact, probably even weighted a little bit towards gross margin, which should be a surprise given all the OpEx we've already taken out and the efficiencies that we believe we can add back in on the gross margin P&L line item.

是的。還有一則評論。我想您是從戴夫那裡聽說的，其中許多都可以在毛利率線中找到。所以這些並不是全部的營運支出。事實上，可能甚至對毛利率有一點權重，考慮到我們已經扣除的所有營運支出以及我們相信可以在毛利率損益項目中重新添加的效率，這應該是一個驚喜。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just another question on the guidance and the guidance range. It's a pretty wide range. And I think you said your expectation is retail flattish. I would assume that at the midpoint. So maybe just help us understand how you would get to the low end of that range and maybe how you could get to the high end of that range as well?

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許只是關於指導和指導範圍的另一個問題。範圍相當廣泛。我認為您說過您的預期是零售業持平。我假設那是在中間點。所以也許您可以幫助我們理解如何達到該範圍的低端以及如何達到該範圍的高端？

Yes. I'll take -- I'll start, Mike, and then Dave can follow up. The high end of the range is relatively straightforward. I would say all things constant it would be a market that outperforms flat, but it doesn't need to outperform materially if it got to mid-single digit up, I think that would be a good start. It would probably also include FX that would be back to more normalized levels.

是的。我來——我先開始，麥克，然後戴夫可以跟進。該範圍的高端相對簡單。我想說，如果所有因素都保持不變，市場的表現將優於持平市場，但如果市場增長至中等個位數，則不需要實質地優於持平市場，我認為這將是一個好的開始。它可能還會包括恢復到更正常水平的外匯。

Again, it doesn't need to improve greatly, the knowledge doesn't need to weaken significantly but if it got back to something that we were in more 2022, 2023, where $1 is a kind of [$1.10] versus low [105] or below. That would certainly be a big chunk.

再說一遍，它不需要有很大的改善，知識也不需要顯著減弱，但如果它回到我們在 2022 年、2023 年的水平，其中 1 美元是一種 [1.10 美元]，而不是低 [105] 或以下。這無疑將是一大筆錢。

And then incremental tariffs outside of what we've already baked in, which are the continuation of the 301 tariffs that we've been dealing with now for a number of years. I you have all -- if those 3 things come through, you definitely can get to $5. The 3.50 case is kind of the opposite. It would be a market that's 5 down or worse it's no improvement or even a worsening in the FX rates and it's potentially and/or it's potentially more tariffs outside of China into places like Canada and Mexico or other factors.

然後是除了我們已經納入的關稅之外的增量關稅，這些關稅是我們多年來一直在處理的 301 關稅的延續。如果你已經擁有了這一切——如果這 3 件事都實現了，你肯定可以得到 5 美元。3.50 的情況則恰恰相反。市場可能會下跌 5% 或更糟，匯率沒有任何改善甚至惡化，並可能導致中國以外地區（如加拿大和墨西哥）徵收更多的關稅或其他因素。

So I know it's a bit of a wider range than folks used to, but all the things that we can control. We think we're very well suited. But we're obviously dealing with a pretty uncertain time. And so most of the flexibility in the guidance are on things that we're just going to have to react to throughout the year.

所以我知道它的範圍比人們過去的認識要廣一些，但所有的事情都在我們的掌控之中。我們認為我們非常適合。但我們顯然正面臨一個相當不確定的時期。因此，指導中的大部分靈活性都是針對我們全年必須做出反應的事情。

Yes. I think on the also, Mike, on the subset tariffs, we have already taken significant mitigating actions, including replacement of inventory, working with our supply base. There's a lot of optimization that's gone on ahead of this uncertain environment to mitigate the impact, certainly in 2025.

是的。麥克，我認為，關於子集關稅，我們已經採取了重大緩解措施，包括更換庫存，與我們的供應基地合作。為了應對這種不確定的環境，我們已經進行了大量優化以減輕影響，至少在 2025 年是如此。

Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

懷特曼（Fred Wightman），沃爾夫研究公司。

Just one more on the guidance. If we look at the sort of 1Q numbers that you put out there, it's a bit below where consensus was. I'm wondering if the cadence or the shape of the year has sort of changed versus where you thought it would have been a quarter or 2 given sort of the ongoing destock or if this is just sort of always the plan and it was sort of the ramp into the back half was what you have planned?

關於指導，還有一條。如果我們看一下您公佈的第一季數據，會發現它略低於普遍預期。我想知道，考慮到正在進行的去庫存，與您原先認為的一兩個季度相比，今年的節奏或形勢是否有所改變？ 或者這是否只是一直以來的計劃，而您計劃在下半年實現增長？

Yes. I mean it really is a long a math, and we're very confident in it. I wouldn't say it's a material change options at the moment. I think broadly, Q1 boats well, early season boat shows are positive, but that's not baked in anywhere. If you think about Q1 last year, we were still running a business capable of supporting 160,000 units a year market incentives were much lower. Dealer confidence was relatively good. Retail actually was up at this point in the year and through most of the first quarter.

是的。我的意思是這確實是一道很長的數學題，但我們對此非常有信心。目前我不會說這是一個重大的改變選擇。我認為總體而言，Q1 船艇表現良好，早期船展表現積極，但這並未在任何地方得到體現。如果你想想去年第一季度，我們仍然在經營一家能夠支援每年 16 萬台設備的業務，而且市場激勵措施要低得多。經銷商信心相對較好。今年此時以及第一季的大部分時間裡，零售業實際上都處於上升趨勢。

So we have on the kind of margin side, I think we have every reason to believe that we will just operate a lot more efficiently during the course of this year, but we will take a bit of a hit in Q1. We're certainly -- we have some good levers for top line growth this year even in a flat market. We expect growth from Navico Group, from Freedom, from Mercury share gains.

因此，就利潤率方面而言，我認為我們有充分的理由相信，我們在今年的營運效率會大大提高，但第一季我們會受到一點打擊。毫無疑問，即使在市場不景氣的情況下，我們今年也有一些很好的槓桿來促進營收成長。我們預計 Navico Group、Freedom 和 Mercury 的股價將會成長。

So -- and of course, we significantly underproduce the market and our least efficient in Q3 and Q4 last year as we took the pain of rightsizing injuries. So we just expect to be operating much better, more efficiently and to achieve some growth in select areas in the back half of the year.

因此 — — 當然，由於我們承受了調整規模的痛苦，去年第三季和第四季我們的產量嚴重低於市場水平，而且效率最低。因此，我們只是期望在今年下半年實現更好、更有效率的營運並在特定領域實現一些成長。

That makes sense. And then just to shift gears a bit to share repurchases, I mean, it's down a good bit from where you guys have been running in the past few years. Can you just explain the thinking behind that? It sounds like there could maybe be some upside to that $80 million, but how should we think about that?

這很有道理。然後稍微轉換一下話題，談談股票回購，我的意思是，與過去幾年相比，現在的回購水準已經下降了不少。你能解釋一下這背後的想法嗎？聽起來這 8,000 萬美元可能還會帶來一些好處，但我們該如何看待這一點呢？

Yes, right. We're balancing all of our capital strategy needs and opportunities. I think it's fair to say that $80 as a baseline, as you correctly point out, we want to watch our debt leverage. Obviously, we're cognizant that on a TTM basis, the first half of this year, together with the back half of last year is probably trough earnings but we kind of very much believe trough earnings.

是的，對。我們正在平衡所有的資本策略需求和機會。我認為可以公平地說，以 80 美元作為基準，正如您正確指出的那樣，我們要關注我們的債務槓桿。顯然，我們意識到，從 TTM 來看，今年上半年和去年下半年可能都是獲利低谷，但我們非常相信獲利低谷。

And so just making sure we're smart about cash utilization here early in the year. We've got a little bit of debt that we've been smart on paying off. We flipped some from fixed to floating to take advantage of the lowering rates. We've done some work on USD to some Euro currency debt as well, so some swap action.

因此，我們要確保年初就能明智地利用現金。我們有一點債務，但我們很聰明地償還了它們。我們將部分貨幣從固定變為浮動，以利用利率降低的優勢。我們也對美元對歐元貨幣債務進行了一些處理，因此進行了一些掉期操作。

So we're being smart about everything cash-oriented. I think if cash should continue to be strong, and I can tell you that January actually continued the theme of the back half of last year and January cash came in significantly over kind of expectations and over in 2024 January. And again, still one month but still a good sign if that trend continues, and I can assure that will not be the final landing spot, we'd be able to do repurchases and continue to serve our debt appropriately.

因此，我們對所有與現金相關的事情都很精明。我認為現金應該繼續保持強勁，我可以告訴你，1 月份實際上延續了去年下半年的主題，1 月份的現金流入大大超出了預期，並且超過了 2024 年 1 月份。再說一次，雖然還有一個月的時間，但如果這種趨勢繼續下去，這仍然是一個好兆頭，而且我可以保證這不會是最終的著陸點，我們將能夠回購並繼續適當地償還債務。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼 (James Hardiman)。

So maybe asking what's already been asked in some slightly different ways, versus three months ago, I think you seem pretty confident or at least then you seem pretty confident that 2025 earnings grow versus '24. That's still certainly on the table at the high end, but the midpoint is maybe a little bit lower.

因此，與三個月前相比，也許以略有不同的方式問出已經被問過的問題，我認為您似乎非常有信心，或者至少您似乎非常有信心 2025 年的收益將比 24 年增長。這肯定仍處於高端，但中間點可能稍微低一點。

I can't figure out what's changed versus three months ago, fourth quarter was better than expected. Maybe if I look at that bridge, which of those were already fully three months ago and which of those are incremental? And then to the question about Q1, I guess I'm just curious, are we still in an environment where we're undershipping the channel for the foreseeable future? Just trying to put together some of these pieces.

我搞不清楚與三個月前相比有什麼變化，但第四季比預期要好。也許，如果我看看那座橋，其中哪些是三個月前就已經完全建造的，哪些是增量的？然後關於第一季的問題，我想我只是好奇，在可預見的未來我們是否仍處於通路出貨量不足的環境中？只是想把其中一些碎片拼湊在一起。

Yes. James, yes, so I think probably, if you want to isolate one thing that has changed more significantly at FX, it really did change significantly over the past three months. So as we were planning our budgets for 2025 and midpoint of guidance, we were not anticipating that $0.40 of additional FX headwind, which would have put us as you mentioned, significantly above prior year EPS absent that -- as the midpoint. So that's the biggest change, Ryan, do you wanted to...

是的。詹姆斯，是的，所以我認為，如果你想找出 FX 發生更重大變化的一件事，它在過去三個月裡確實發生了重大變化。因此，當我們規劃 2025 年預算和指導中點時，我們並沒有預料到會有 0.40 美元的額外外匯逆風，正如您所說，如果沒有這個中點，我們的每股收益將大大高於去年同期。那麼這就是最大的變化，瑞安，你想...

Yes. James, on your question on wholesale versus retail, yes, the plan right now currently is a wholesale under ships retail in the first half of the year. And then that moderates and flips over in the back half of the year. Something to remember for everyone, production and wholesale and our primary boat engine businesses in the back half of 2024 was historically low.

是的。詹姆斯，關於你關於批發與零售的問題，是的，目前的計劃是上半年進行批發和零售。然後，到今年下半年，這種情況會逐漸緩和，並出現逆轉。每個人都應該記住的是，2024 年下半年的生產和批發以及我們的主要船用引擎業務處於歷史低點。

So we did -- we took actions purposeful actions to control inventory levels in the pipeline, and the result was wholesaling at the boat and engine level in the back half of the year that was significantly below any second half in years.

所以我們採取了有針對性的行動來控制渠道中的庫存水平，結果是下半年船舶和發動機的批發量明顯低於幾年來的任何一個下半年。

And so if you roll that forward to the second half of 2025, we understand that our guidance and performance looks a little back half loaded. But back half of this year is against a historically low back half of '24%. And if you look at back half of '25 versus to say any other year since 2018 or 2019, it actually still looks relatively conservative and lower. So we understand the shape of the year, making people pause but you need to keep it in mind after what we did in the back half of last year to really set us up.

因此，如果將其提前到 2025 年下半年，我們會發現我們的指導和業績看起來有些落後。但今年下半年的增幅卻創下了歷史新低，僅 24%。如果你回顧 2025 年後半段，與 2018 年或 2019 年以來的任何一年相比，它實際上看起來仍然相對保守且較低。因此，我們了解今年的情況，讓人們停下來思考，但你需要記住，我們去年下半年所做的事情確實為我們做好了準備。

Got it. And then maybe staying on that wholesale versus retail conversation. So under shipping during the first half of the year, where do you expect inventories to finish the year? Is the overall assumption that wholesale will equal retail in 2025? And then as I think about that weeks on hand number, you've talked about how difficult it is to keep that down when volumes are this low.

知道了。然後也許繼續討論批發與零售之間的話題。那麼，在上半年的出貨量下，您預計年底的庫存量會是多少？總體假設是 2025 年批發額將等於零售額嗎？然後，當我想到庫存週數時，您談到了當庫存量如此之低時，保持庫存量下降有多麼困難。

How should we think about that number sort of getting back to normalized levels in the years to come, right? Really you're going to maybe undergrow the recovery a little bit to get those weeks in hand back where you want them to be?

我們該如何看待這個數字在未來幾年恢復到正常水平？您確實可能會稍微減緩恢復速度，以便讓這幾週的時間回到您想要的狀態？

Yes, you're right. Our plan right now would be retail outpaces wholesale still on the boat side and more so on the engine side. However, both of those still assume that wholesale units in both and in engines are greater than last year.

是的，你說得對。我們目前的計劃是，在船舶方面零售額超過批發額，在引擎方面尤其如此。但是，兩者仍假設和引擎的批發單位都比去年多。

And we would end the year on a current plan with weeks on hand lower than the end of 2024. And really, our normalized weeks on hand historically is in the 35 weeks range. The 36.8 for 2024 was really an overachievement versus where we might have been if we hadn't taken such significant action in Q4. So -- and remember, on a unit basis, we are still really historically low. And certainly, our fiberglass pipelines are very, very low on a unit basis.

按照目前的計劃，我們今年年底的剩餘週數將低於 2024 年底的剩餘週數。事實上，我們歷史上標準化的庫存週數是在 35 週左右。如果我們在第四季沒有採取如此重大的行動，那麼 2024 年的 36.8 的成績可能就會超出我們的預期。所以 — — 請記住，從單位數量來看，我們仍然處於歷史低點。當然，我們的玻璃纖維管道的單位成本非常非常低。

Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普 (Megan Clapp)。

Just a couple of follow-up clarifications for me. So on that answer you just gave to James on wholesale versus retail. I think based on what you just said, could imply the back half up maybe mid-teens. And can you just help us unpack bridge from the flat retail expectations. And I think when we talked back in October, you'd previously talked about a base case of a mid-single-digit volume tailwind. Is that still what's embedded in the full year guide? Or is there something more than that now?

我只想做幾點後續澄清。所以關於你剛才給詹姆斯的批發與零售的回答。我認為根據您剛才所說的，可能意味著後半部分可能在十幾歲左右。您能否幫助我們從平淡的零售預期中解開橋樑？我認為，當我們在 10 月進行對話時，您之前曾談到中等個位數銷售順風的基本情況。這仍然是全年指南中的內容嗎？或者現在有更多的事情嗎？

No. Maybe just to be real clear, so we believe it's going to be flat in the US That is our, well, I should say, our plan is based on flat retail in the US. I think there's some real reasons to think it could be better than that, but we think flat is a good basis.

不。也許只是為了真正清楚起見，我們相信美國零售業將會持平。我認為有一些真正的理由讓我們認為它可能會比這更好，但我們認為平坦是一個很好的基礎。

On top of that, we think wholesale in boats will be up mid- to high single digits on units and wholesale engines will be up low to mid-single digits over last year. So that is -- those are the wholesale units embedded in the plan on a flat market environment.

除此之外，我們認為船舶批發量將比去年同期上漲中高個位數，引擎批發量將上漲低至中個位數。所以，這些都是在平穩的市場環境下嵌入計畫的批發單位。

Okay. Very clear. And then on the tariffs, I think you mentioned that the low end of the range, the 3.50, there's some incremental tariffs embedded there. Any possibility you can share with us what you're embedding at 3.50. And if not, maybe can you just remind us on exposure to Mexico and Canada and maybe put some parameters around what that could look like?

好的。非常清楚。然後關於關稅，我想您提到了範圍的低端，3.50，其中包含一些增量關稅。您可以與我們分享您在 3.50 中嵌入的內容嗎？如果沒有，您能否提醒我們墨西哥和加拿大的風險敞口，並給出一些參數？

Sure. I'm going to do the latter not the former. I'm trying to guess what tariff rates and things could be out there. Obviously, the pools there. But I think we've covered China well. So I will move past current year China impact. If you look at speculative tariffs, just over about 20% of our COGS, so under $900 million actually originates from outside the US and comes into our US operations.

當然。我要做後者，而不是前者。我正在嘗試猜測可能存在的關稅稅率和事項。顯然，那裡有水池。但我認為我們對中國已經報道得很好了。因此我將不再關註今年對中國的影響。如果你看一下投機性關稅，你會發現我們的銷貨成本略高於 20%，因此實際上不到 9 億美元來自美國以外，並進入了我們的美國業務。

Of that, China is less than 5%, Canada is a couple of points, and Mexico is at or about 10%, even if you include the full value attributable to our 3 Mekias. We have a Mekia in our Boat Group and our Mercury segment and in Navico.

其中，中國佔不到 5%，加拿大佔幾個點，墨西哥約 10%，即使算上我們 3 個 Mekias 的全部價值。我們的船舶集團、Mercury 部門和 Navico 部門都有 Mekia。

So you're still at a pretty small amount of COGS that could potentially be implicit in tariffs. Without giving any specific number, you could see the 3.50 EPS that the tariff impact doubles for the full year, something in that area. But again, the worst case is hard to consider because we're taking so many actions to prevent the worst case from happening, as Dave covered earlier, that it would be hard to speculate.

因此，您仍需要承擔相當少量的銷貨成本，而這些成本可能隱含在關稅中。在不給出任何具體數字的情況下，你可以看到 3.50 的每股收益，即關稅影響在全年翻倍，在這個範圍內。但是，最壞的情況很難考慮，因為我們正在採取許多措施來防止最壞的情況發生，正如戴夫之前所說的那樣，所以很難推測。

So again, we are primarily a US manufacturer selling US products in the US and where we sell internationally in many places, we produce in that location or in that region. And so as tariffs continue to something we monitor, and we're being smart about making decisions around them. But until new rules come into play, the best we can do is consider mitigation and continue operating our business as best of our ability.

所以，再說一次，我們主要是一家美國製造商，在美國銷售美國產品，並且我們在許多地方進行國際銷售，我們在該地區或該地區生產。因此，我們會繼續監控關稅，並明智地做出相關決定。但在新規則出台之前，我們能做的最好的事情就是考慮緩解措施並盡最大努力繼續經營我們的業務。

Joe Altobello, Raymond James.

喬·阿爾托貝洛、雷蒙·詹姆斯。

I want to ask about the industry outlook for '25. You mentioned flattish, not overly heroic obviously off of the low base here. But you did mention interest rates as a potential tailwind. And it looks like, at least on the consumer side, rates have not come down at all since the Fed are cutting rates. So what sort of rate environment are you baking into that flattish industry outlook?

我想問一下25年的產業前景。您提到了平淡，顯然不是太英勇，因為這裡的基礎較低。但您確實提到利率是潛在的順風。而且看起來，至少在消費者方面，自從聯準會降息以來，利率根本沒有下降。那麼，在產業前景平淡的情況下，您會考慮什麼樣的利率環境呢？

Yes. Joe, actually, even though mortgage rates have kind of re-elevated both loan rates have not. So if you look at the environment we were in kind of going through the kind of the end of the third quarter of last year, most people were paying 9%, maybe 9.5% with reasonable credit on a boat loan. That is now 7.5%, maybe or above 7.5%, 7.99%, something like that.

是的。喬，實際上，儘管抵押貸款利率再次上升，但兩種貸款利率並沒有上升。因此，如果你看看我們所處的環境，例如去年第三季末，大多數人以合理的信用支付 9%，也許 9.5% 的船舶貸款。現在是 7.5%，可能或高於 7.5%、7.99% 或類似的數字。

So we have retained a material reduction in the rates over that period and have not seen any reversion unlike what has been seen in some of the loan rate. Some of the applications like in mortgages. We expect that to probably edge down some more over time. So that's the rate that we're really looking at.

因此，我們在那段期間保持了利率的大幅下降，並且沒有看到任何與部分貸款利率不同的回歸。一些應用類似於抵押貸款。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，這一數字可能會進一步下降。這就是我們真正關注的利率。

I think one of the things that's interesting as we go into the year is -- and it was an interesting dynamic at early season boat shows. There were a lot of people who would stay on the sidelines for a year or 2 years looking at these kind of historically high interest rates. We saw the combination of lower interest rates, maybe a bit more bullishness certainly small business along with some of the promotions and discounts available as our opportunity to get back in.

我認為，隨著我們進入新的一年，有趣的事情之一是——早期的船展上出現了有趣的動態。許多人會在場外觀察這種歷史性高利率一兩年。我們認為較低的利率、小型企業的樂觀情緒以及一些促銷和折扣等因素都是我們重返市場的機會。

And I think it's those combination of factors that we're looking at as a tailwind, real rates have in terms of boat loans really reduced, probably 1.5 points versus where they were in the at the end of Q3 of last year. But I see that as a factor combined with other tailwinds for us.

我認為這些因素的結合是我們視為順風的因素，船舶貸款的實際利率確實降低了，可能比去年第三季末降低了 1.5 個百分點。但我認為這對我們來說是一個有利因素，同時也是其他有利因素。

Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just to switch over to the EPS bridge for '25, the volume piece, $0.25 that is a flat market as well. Does it also assume your market shares were flat or are you anticipating additional share gains, particularly in engines?

知道了。非常有幫助。也許只是為了切換到 25 年的 EPS 橋，即交易量部分，0.25 美元，這也是一個平穩的市場。這是否也假設您的市場份額持平，或者您是否預計份額會進一步增長，特別是在引擎領域？

No, we'd be anticipating change at Mercury for sure and then continued share gains on our premium boat brands. And Joe, remember, there's also -- there's other a bridge like this is always danger as you could put many, many other categories in here. But there's things like price will overcome material labor inflation and other things. So there's a big category of other that kind of net out market share being one of them. But yes, we fully anticipate on Mercury continuing to gain market share.

不，我們肯定會預期水星會發生變化，然後我們的高端船舶品牌的份額會繼續增長。喬，記住，還有──還有其他像這樣的橋，總是很危險，因為你可以把很多很多其他類別的橋放在這裡。但物價等因素將戰勝物質勞動力通膨等因素。因此，還有一大類其他類型的淨市場份額就是其中之一。但是的，我們完全預計 Mercury 將繼續獲得市場份額。

Is it safe to assume we'll get a bridge like this every year, Ryan? Or this one done.

瑞安，我們可以每年都蓋一座這樣的橋嗎？或者這個完成了。

I think you've got one in the last few, but yes, we do like our EPS bridges.

我認為你在過去的幾個中已經擁有了一座，但是是的，我們確實喜歡我們的 EPS 橋。

Joe, you should look out for a press release this morning that came out from finish boat build [that said masta] that announced yesterday a switch from a competitive outboard manufacturer to Mercury. It's pretty interesting.

喬，你應該留意今天早上發布的新聞稿，該新聞稿來自完成船舶建造 [即 masta] ，昨天宣布從競爭性舷外發動機製造商轉向水星。這很有趣。

Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Noah Zatzkin。

Maybe just a couple on Navico, obviously, on a percentage year-over-year basis, it's a fairly large range in the guide. So just trying to think about what needs to go right for you guys to have growth there and come in towards the higher end of that range this year?

也許 Navico 上只有幾個，但顯然，以同比百分比計算，該指南中的範圍相當大。所以只是想一想，今年你們需要做些什麼才能實現成長並達到這個範圍的更高水準？

And so relatedly, I noticed there's a fairly large restructuring charge in the fourth quarter. So wondering how many more quarters you'd expect of maybe those types of charges and when we can kind of move past those?

與此相關的是，我注意到第四季的重組費用相當大。所以想知道您預計這些類型的費用還會持續多少個季度，以及我們什麼時候可以擺脫這些費用？

Yes. So good question. It's interesting to look back in 2024 in the Navico performance, it was interesting on a full year basis, our P&A was down about 3% top line. Our boat and propulsion businesses were down in the 20% to 25% range. And Navico was down 12%, which is kind of what you'd expect from a company that is $0.40 OEM and 60% aftermarket. It is really beginning to show as we get through all of the noise of inventory rebase line in and other things that it is essentially on the top line performing as you would expect that mix to perform.

是的。真是好問題。回顧 2024 年 Navico 的表現很有趣，從全年來看很有趣，我們的 P&A 營收下降了約 3%。我們的船舶和推進器業務下滑了20%至25%。Navico 下跌了 12%，這對於一家 OEM 營收為 0.40 美元、售後市場營收為 60% 的公司而言，是意料之中的。當我們消除庫存重新基準和其他因素帶來的所有噪音時，它開始真正顯現出來，它基本上在頂線上表現得像您預期的那樣。

Our P&A business is probably more than 80% aftermarket. Navico is kind of 60-40. It was a nice validation of how we would expect that business to perform on the top line. We did and will continue to invest a lot in new products for Navico.

我們的 P&A 業務大概有 80% 以上是售後市場。Navico 的比例是 60-40。這很好地驗證了我們對於該業務營收表現的預期。我們已經並將繼續為 Navico 的新產品投入大量資金。

And new product development takes some time to make its way to the market as commercialized products which is why we emphasized or I emphasized in my section of the deck there, the new products that are coming to market, came to market in 2024 in the forwarder, which were mostly aftermarket type products but are coming to market in 2025 with a bit more of an OEM flavor.

新產品開發需要一段時間才能作為商業化產品進入市場，這就是為什麼我們強調或我在我的部分強調即將上市的新產品，它們於 2024 年在貨運代理中上市，其中大部分是售後市場類型的產品，但將於 2025 年上市，帶有更多的 OEM 風格。

So we continue to invest. And that is we could operate Navico differently for the short term and show a big margin improvement, but that's not the right thing for the longer term. But in 2025, we will expect Navico top line growth and margin expansion, while we continue to invest in the business to make sure we have accreditive product lines everywhere. I think that is beginning to show up.

因此我們繼續投資。也就是說，我們可以在短期內以不同的方式經營 Navico，並大幅提高利潤率，但從長期來看，這並不是正確的做法。但在 2025 年，我們預計 Navico 的營收將成長，利潤率將擴大，同時我們將繼續對業務進行投資，以確保我們在各地擁有獲得認可的產品線。我認為這一點已開始顯現。

Ryan can talk about the onetime right here.

瑞安 (Ryan) 可以在這裡談論那件事。

Yes, it is an impairment of goodwill that we took in the quarter. And really, the fundamental change was the risk-free rate going from low 4s to almost 5, which changed the discount rate that we have to use in the calculation of the DCF calculation.

是的，這是我們本季計入的商譽減損。實際上，根本的變化是無風險利率從 4% 以下上升到接近 5%，這改變了我們在 DCF 計算中必須使用的折現率。

So long way to put it, there's no change in what our views of the outward years of that business to be, which, again, we're very confident in. But the technical goodwill valuation test that we undergo each quarter, but certainly at the end of the year with that change in the discount, you put it into an impairment situation and thus the charge. Obviously, impossible to predict the future, but we do have a risk premium included in that discount rate, which helps us capture a little the forecast risk moving forward. So I think our view is we're rightly valued right now and hopefully, you don't have to take additional charges anytime soon.

長話短說，我們對該業務未來幾年的看法沒有改變，而且我們對此非常有信心。但是我們每季都會進行技術商譽估值測試，但肯定會在年底隨著折扣的變化，您將其置於減損情況並因此產生費用。顯然，預測未來是不可能實現的，但是我們的折現率確實包含了風險溢價，這有助於我們在一定程度上捕捉未來的預測風險。因此我認為我們的觀點是，我們現在的估值是正確的，並且希望您不必很快就承擔額外的費用。

Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的 Xian Siew。

Could you remind us where global weeks on hand are to end the year? Anything we should think about in terms of international dealer levels versus US and where that could go over the course of the year?

您能否提醒我們今年年底的全球週是在哪裡舉行的？我們應該考慮國際經銷商水準與美國經銷商水準之間的對比，以及今年的走勢如何？

Well, European is the only other meaningful one, which will be up in the 40-week plus for 41-weeks is European. So combined, it's probably in the high 30s. I would think someone like that.

嗯，歐洲是唯一一個有意義的貨幣，它將在 40 週內上漲，並且在 41 週內上漲的是歐洲貨幣。因此綜合起來，可能達到 30 多度。我想會有人像這樣。

But yes, so European weeks on hand is always higher, mainly because of the logistics of the European market and also because -- the -- of the fact that we typically are not shipping boats with engines, we ship boats separately, which means that there's additional stock required at the dealers to combine the two together. So it's really a bit fun to the marketplace. We manufacture -- we have pretty distributed manufacturing in the US, but we manufacture all of our boats for Europe either in Portugal or in Poland. So if we're shipping up to the Scandinavian markets, for example, down to Ital, we just need more inventory.

但是的，所以歐洲的庫存量總是較高，主要是因為歐洲市場的物流，也因為——我們通常不運送帶有發動機的船隻，而是單獨運送船隻，這意味著經銷商需要額外的庫存來將兩者結合在一起。所以這對市場來說確實有點有趣。我們在美國製造，製造業務分佈相當廣泛，但我們為歐洲製造的所有船隻都是在葡萄牙或波蘭製造。因此，如果我們要將產品運送到斯堪的納維亞市場，例如義大利，我們需要更多的庫存。

And maybe that's why our Dusseldorf results were such a good sign, the Dusseldorf Show where Quicksilver, our European brand did so well versus last year and even versus prior years together with [Seivra] doing kind of a record performance. Seeing that European customer come back, especially at the value end we'll take those pipelines down very quickly. Again, the pipeline as a TTM is one thing. But when you look at rolling units, it's actually a pretty small number, so retail goodness there can change that weeks on hand number very quickly.

也許這就是為什麼我們的杜塞爾多夫展會成績如此出色，在杜塞爾多夫展會上，我們的歐洲品牌 Quicksilver 與去年相比表現優異，甚至與前幾年相比也表現出色，我們與 [Seivra] 一起創下了創紀錄的業績。看到歐洲客戶回來，特別是在價值端，我們很快就會關閉這些管道。再次強調，管道作為 TTM 是一回事。但當你查看滾動單位時，它實際上是一個相當小的數字，因此零售商品可以很快地改變庫存週數。

Got it. That's super helpful. And then maybe on price and mix, it sounds like taking some modest price increases kind of off that inflation. How do you think about like affordability? And if that's kind of still holding people back? Do you think like promotions need to stay elevated in '25?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後也許在價格和組合方面，這聽起來像是透過通貨膨脹來適度提高價格。您如何看待可負擔性？如果這仍然阻礙著人們呢？您認為 25 年促銷力道需要繼續加大嗎？

Yes. Well, I think affordability is -- I mean, if you look at transaction prices, affordability is definitely significantly improved over the past couple of years. I think we continue to moderate -- significantly moderate price increases. So over time, even the kind of MSRP or advertised pricing is moderated in terms of CAGR over a 6-year period kind of evening out the higher price increases that we had to take during the supply chain crisis.

是的。嗯，我認為負擔能力是——我的意思是，如果你看看交易價格，負擔能力在過去幾年裡肯定有了顯著改善。我認為我們會繼續緩和——顯著緩和價格上漲。因此，隨著時間的推移，即使是製造商建議零售價或廣告定價，在 6 年期間的複合年增長率也會有所緩和，從而平衡我們在供應鏈危機期間不得不承受的更高價格上漲。

But on a transaction basis with the promotions, I think there's deflation in transaction prices. We went into the year assuming that promotional rates or total promotional rates would be similar to the back half of 2024. During the course of the year, we'll continue to moderate as we see how the market develops.

但從促銷活動的交易情況來看，我認為交易價格會下跌。我們假設今年的促銷率或總促銷率將與 2024 年下半年相似。今年期間，我們會根據市場的發展狀況，持續調整政策。

I do think, though, that if you look on a full year basis, promotions and discounts will probably be on average lower. And the reason is, there were just some -- there was just a need to clear out inventory in the back half of the year, certainly not necessarily with Brunswick brands, but in other brands that necessitated some more significant promotions on a kind of prior model year type basis.

不過，我確實認為，如果從全年來看，促銷和折扣的平均金額可能會較低。原因是，下半年需要清理庫存，當然不一定是 Brunswick 品牌，而是其他品牌，這些品牌需要在前一年車型的基礎上進行一些更重要的促銷。

As we go into this year, with production much more steady and balanced, we have more than 80% of our inventory less than a year old. I just don't see the same need for additional incremental discounting on prior model year. And I don't see the same dynamic of having to clear out pipelines.

進入今年，我們的生產更加穩定和均衡，我們 80% 以上的庫存都是不到一年的。我只是不認為需要對前一年的車型進行額外的增量折扣。我沒有看到需要清理管道的相同動態。

And the whole -- and the wholesale interest component will be down. That's not just because of (multiple speakers) or going down to a point.

整體而言－批發利息部分將會下降。這不僅是因為（多位發言者）或下降到某一點。

Great. Super helpful.

偉大的。超有幫助。

Jaime Katz, Morningstar.

晨星公司的 Jaime Katz。

We talked a lot about operating expenses on this call. But I'd be curious to hear your thought on what the long-term capital intensity program looks like. It looks like that the size of the business is maybe at a new run rate? Is it right to think about CapEx closer to 3% of sales going forward rather than maybe the closer to 4% that we were looking at as the business is growing more robustly?

我們在這次電話會議上討論了很多有關營運費用的問題。但我很想聽聽您對長期資本密集度計畫的看法。看起來業務規模可能處於新的運行速度？隨著業務更加強勁地成長，我們是否應該考慮將資本支出控制在接近銷售額的 3% 左右，而不是接近 4% 左右？

Yes. Jaime. Yes, you're right. We went through a period pre-COVID and even after COVID, where CapEx was pretty elevated. We did a lot of capacity projects at Mercury, we opened a second (technical difficulty) facility. And so that was pretty capital intensive. We're certainly now in harvest phase where we can still invest in our products, invest in our capital in our facilities and our people, but probably keep that number, I would say, between 3% and 4%. We were running for a number of years, 5% to 6% through a lot of those programs.

是的。詹姆。是的，你說得對。在疫情之前甚至疫情之後，我們經歷了一段資本支出相當高的時期。我們在 Mercury 做了很多容量項目，我們開設了第二個（技術難度）設施。所以這需要相當多的資本。我們現在肯定處於收穫階段，我們仍然可以投資於我們的產品，投資於我們的設施和人員的資本，但可能會保持這個數字，我想，在 3％ 到 4％ 之間。我們已經運行了很多年，透過很多這樣的項目，成長率達到了 5% 到 6%。

But yes, I think we're at a point now where we are harvesting some of the spending that we did. We've got plenty of capacity. And moving forward, I think we will be at a bit lower flip as we move through at least the next 2 or 3 years.

但是的，我認為我們現在已經到了收回部分支出的階段。我們有足夠的產能。展望未來，我認為至少在未來 2 到 3 年內，我們的翻轉率會稍微低一些。

Okay. That's helpful. Lastly, I guess, we haven't talked about potential opportunities. And I'm wondering if maybe it would be helpful to describe sort of what volume of other companies have been coming to you during this period of distress that maybe interesting vertical integration opportunity is not so much specifics, but has the cadence of that picked up just other companies looking for strategic alternatives for themselves.

好的。這很有幫助。最後，我想，我們還沒有談到潛在的機會。我想知道，也許您可以描述一下在這段困難時期有多少其他公司來找您，也許有趣的垂直整合機會並不那麼具體，但這種節奏是否能讓其他公司為自己尋找戰略替代方案。

Yes, Jaime. We continue to feel quite a lot of incoming. I think we're very judicious about how we handle that. And we've been pretty purposeful. We've continued to expand Freedom Boat Club notably. But I would say, as Ryan mentioned earlier, as we see really strong cash flow generation and we see our share price at $70, share repurchases have got to be a continued priority for us in terms of where we deploy cash. We'll continue to look but broadly, I think we're pretty comfortable with our portfolio at the moment.

是的，詹姆。我們繼續感受到相當多的衝擊。我認為我們非常明智地處理了這個問題。我們這樣做是有目的性的。我們繼續大幅擴大自由船俱樂部。但我想說，正如瑞安之前提到的，由於我們看到了非常強勁的現金流產生，而且我們的股價達到 70 美元，因此，就我們部署現金而言，股票回購必須繼續成為我們的優先事項。我們將繼續關注，但從總體上看，我認為我們目前對我們的投資組合非常滿意。

And we need to continue to invest organically, certainly not nearly as much in capacity, which we've essentially done but we need to continue to keep our products fresh, which is always a priority for us.

我們需要繼續進行有機投資，當然不會在產能方面投入太多，我們基本上已經這樣做了，但我們需要繼續保持產品的新鮮，這始終是我們的首要任務。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Dave for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交還給戴夫，請他作最後發言。

Well, thank you all for your great questions. I think given the market conditions, we think we've used our controllable levers to come close to maximizing the potential of our business in 2024 and position us really well in terms of boat and engine inventory levels, fresh lineup of new products and really solid operating efficiencies as we go into 2025. Strong free cash flow was a real highlight. It took a lot of effort, but the benefits really flowed in Q4 and continue to flow in Q1.

好吧，感謝大家提出這個精彩的問題。我認為，考慮到市場狀況，我們認為我們已經利用了可控的槓桿，在 2024 年接近最大化我們業務的潛力，並在船舶和發動機庫存水平、新產品陣容和真正穩固的運營效率方面為我們在 2025 年做好準備。強勁的自由現金流是真正的亮點。雖然花費了很多精力，但收益在第四季度確實產生了，並在第一季繼續產生。

As we've discussed, 2025 early season boat shows have also been encouraging, with sales up significantly in premium and core and value segments, which is really exciting to see buyers across spectrum showing increase. And of course, Mercury share gains, I mean, being up 7 points of share to the major shows early in the season on top of the share gains from 2024 was a pretty spectacular performance.

正如我們所討論的，2025 年初的船展也令人鼓舞，高端、核心和價值領域的銷量大幅增長，看到各個領域的買家數量都有所增加確實令人興奮。當然，水星的份額也有所增長，我的意思是，在 2024 年份額增長的基礎上，本季初在主要節目中的份額又上升了 7 個百分點，這是一個相當出色的表現。

Anyway, we are very much looking forward to hosting many of you at the upcoming Miami Boat Show in just a few weeks' time for its sort of our exhibits and our exciting new products and for our investor and analyst event. And so have a great day.

無論如何，我們非常期待在幾週後即將舉行的邁阿密遊艇展上接待你們，屆時我們將展示我們的展覽和令人興奮的新產品，並舉辦投資者和分析師活動。祝您有美好的一天。

Thank you. This will conclude today's program. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的節目就到此結束。此時您可以斷開您的線路，感謝您的參與。