使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Brunswick Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's meeting will be recorded. (Operator Instructions)
早安,歡迎參加 Brunswick 公司 2025 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作說明)今天的會議將被錄音。(操作說明)
I would now like to introduce Stephen Weiland, Senior Vice President and Deputy Chief Financial Officer of Brunswick Corp. Please go ahead.
現在我謹向大家介紹 Brunswick Corp. 的高級副總裁兼副財務長 Stephen Weiland。請開始吧。
Stephen Weiland - Vice President, Deputy Chief Financial Officer
Stephen Weiland - Vice President, Deputy Chief Financial Officer
Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are David Foulkes, Brunswick's Chairman and CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, Brunswick's CFO.
請繼續。早安,感謝各位的參與。今天早上和我一起參加電話會議的有 Brunswick 的董事長兼執行長 David Foulkes,以及 Brunswick 的財務長 Ryan Gwillim。
Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations. For details on the factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release. All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com.
在我們開始發言之前,我想提醒大家,在本次電話會議中,我們的發言將包含一些關於未來績效的前瞻性陳述。請注意,我們的實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關需要考慮的因素的詳細信息,請參閱我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿。所有這些文件都可以在我們的網站 brunswick.com 上找到。
During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix of this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results.
在我們的簡報過程中,我們將提及一些非GAAP財務資訊。本簡報的附錄和今天發布的未經審計的合併財務報表的調整部分提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。
I will now turn the call over to Dave.
現在我將把通話轉給戴夫。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Steve. We finished 2025 ahead of recent expectations, with all our businesses reporting sales and earnings growth in the quarter, leading to full year net sales growth for the first time in three years and significantly higher free cash flow generation, all supported by strengthening boat market in the second half of the year.
謝謝你,史蒂夫。2025 年,我們的業績超出了近期的預期,所有業務部門在本季度都實現了銷售額和利潤的增長,從而實現了三年來首次全年淨銷售額增長,並顯著提高了自由現金流,所有這些都得益於下半年船舶市場的走強。
In addition to improved retail conditions, our performance was underpinned by solid boating participation, driving stability in our recurring revenue businesses and outstanding operational execution across the enterprise.
除了零售環境的改善,我們的業績也得益於遊艇活動的穩定參與,這推動了我們經常性收入業務的穩定性,以及整個企業出色的營運執行。
Retail demand stabilized in the second half of the year following a challenging second quarter primarily caused by tariff-induced economic uncertainty. While the US retail boat market finished the year down approximately 9% in units, Brunswick's leading boat brands outperformed the US industry and Brunswick global retail unit sales were down only 5%, driven by weakness in value products.
在經歷了主要受關稅引發的經濟不確定性影響而充滿挑戰的第二季度後,下半年零售需求趨於穩定。儘管美國零售船艇市場全年銷量下降約 9%,但 Brunswick 的領先船艇品牌表現優於美國產業,Brunswick 全球零售銷售量僅下降 5%,這主要得益於高性價比產品的疲軟。
Dealer inventories remain at very low levels and with a high percentage of recent model year product. Despite the volatile first half of the year, we delivered $5.4 billion in net sales, up 2% over prior year. Our adjusted earnings per share of $3.27 were impacted by the anticipated tariff headwinds, which had a substantial impact on the fourth quarter.
經銷商庫存仍然處於非常低的水平,而且近期車型的比例很高。儘管上半年市場波動較大,但我們仍實現了 54 億美元的淨銷售額,比上年增長 2%。受預期關稅不利因素的影響,我們調整後的每股收益為 3.27 美元,這對第四季度產生了重大影響。
Comprehensive cost containment actions throughout the year, along with robust capital strategy execution and diligent working capital management, resulted in exceptional free cash flow generation for the year of $442 million, which provided us with us financial flexibility to continue to invest in the business, repurchase $80 million of shares, increase our dividend and retire approximately $240 million of debt to further improve our strong balance sheet.
全年採取全面的成本控制措施,加上強有力的資本策略執行和勤勉的營運資本管理,使得公司全年自由現金流達到 4.42 億美元,這為我們提供了財務靈活性,使我們能夠繼續投資業務、回購 8000 萬美元的股票、提高股息併償還約 2.4 億美元的債務,從而進一步改善我們強勁的資產負債表。
Strong early season retail and falling interest rates, combined with the stabilized retail environment, currently supports our initial expectations for improved market conditions in 2026. In 2025, boat and engine retail sales significantly outpaced wholesale, which positions Brunswick for revenue growth in 2026 in a range of flat-to-improving retail scenarios.
強勁的早期零售和不斷下降的利率,加上穩定的零售環境,目前支撐著我們對 2026 年市場狀況改善的初步預期。2025 年,船舶和引擎零售額大幅超過批發額,這使得 Brunswick 在 2026 年能夠在各種持平或改善的零售情況下實現收入成長。
Turning to some segment highlights, I'm pleased to report that for the second quarter in a row, all segments grew revenue over the prior year quarter. Operating margin also expanded across our businesses, except for Engine P&A where it was down slightly due to strong performance in the lower-margin distribution side of the business.
接下來是一些業務部門的亮點,我很高興地報告,所有業務部門連續第二個季度實現了比上年同期更高的收入。除發動機包裝與應用業務外,我們所有業務的營業利潤率均有所提高;發動機包裝與應用業務的營業利潤率略有下降,這是由於利潤率較低的分銷業務表現強勁所致。
Our Propulsion segment had an outstanding fourth quarter, increasing revenues and earnings versus prior year in each of its three business lines, outboard, sterndrive and controls, rigging and propellers. Mercury continues to be the outboard market share leader in the US, Canada and Europe and is increasing its investment in ground breaking new products.
我們的推進系統部門在第四季度表現出色,其三大業務線(舷外機、舷內機和控制系統、索具和螺旋槳)的收入和利潤均較上年同期有所增長。Mercury 繼續保持在美國、加拿大和歐洲舷外機市場份額領先地位,並不斷增加對突破性新產品的投資。
Recently, at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Mercury unveiled its 808 outboard engine concept, signaling the future direction of ultra-high horsepower outboard propulsion. Mercury's commercial traction continues to accelerate as highlighted by the recently announced exclusive agreements with Axopar, Saxdor and DeAntonio Yachts adding to the more than 100 new or renewed OEM agreements in the last 12 months.
最近,在拉斯維加斯舉行的消費電子展上,Mercury 推出了其 808 舷外機概念,標誌著超高馬力舷外推進的未來方向。Mercury 的商業發展勢頭持續加速,最近宣布與 Axopar、Saxdor 和 DeAntonio Yachts 達成獨家協議,加上過去 12 個月內新增或續簽的 100 多項 OEM 協議,進一步凸顯了這一點。
Our recurring revenue, high-margin Engine Parts & Accessories business delivered higher sales and earnings in the fourth quarter versus prior year in both its products and distribution business lines, fueled by higher voting participation and our growing share in marine distribution. Our market-leading US distribution business gained 210 basis points of share in 2025.
我們的經常性收入、高利潤率的引擎零件及配件業務在第四季度實現了比上年同期更高的銷售額和利潤,其產品和分銷業務線均受益於更高的投票參與率和我們在船舶分銷領域不斷增長的份額。到 2025 年,我們市場領先的美國分銷業務的市佔率成長了 210 個基點。
Navico Group increased both revenue and operating margin in the fourth quarter versus prior year, reflecting the steadily increasing benefits of our continued focus on a refreshed product portfolio and operational, commercial and financial improvement actions.
與去年同期相比,Navico 集團第四季度的營收和營業利潤率均有所增長,這反映出我們持續專注於更新產品組合以及營運、商業和財務改善措施所帶來的收益正在穩步增加。
Navico Group launched connected solutions, including integration with mobile apps and Simrad multifunction displays, enabling onboard and offboard real-time monitoring and control of vessels. And the introduction of our Simrad AutoCaptain autonomous boating system was another example of Brunswick's unique ability to deliver seamlessly integrated system solutions codeveloped by Navico Group, Mercury Marine and Brunswick Boat Group.
Navico集團推出了互聯解決方案,包括與行動應用程式和Simrad多功能顯示器的集成,從而實現對船舶的船上和船外即時監控和控制。我們推出的 Simrad AutoCaptain 自主航行系統,再次體現了 Brunswick 的獨特能力,即提供由 Navico 集團、Mercury Marine 和 Brunswick 船舶集團共同開發的無縫整合系統解決方案。
Finally, this quarter, our Boat business capitalized on the continued improvement in the retail market which drove sales growth and significantly expanded margins versus the prior year quarter. Discounting levels in 2025 also improved approximately 100 basis points year-over-year.
最後,本季度,我們的船舶業務受益於零售市場的持續改善,推動了銷售成長,利潤率較上年同期大幅提高。2025 年的折扣水準也比前一年提高了約 100 個基點。
Our premium and core brands experienced continued strength, highlighted by 15% overall revenue growth across our premium brands at the Fort Lauderdale Boat Show. And our value brands also recovered some momentum. Lastly, Freedom Boat Club had another strong quarter, growing to 442 global locations and with member trips finishing the year at over 640,000, up 5% over 2024.
我們的高端品牌和核心品牌持續保持強勁勢頭,在勞德代爾堡遊艇展上,我們的高端品牌整體收入成長了 15%。我們的高性價比品牌也恢復了一些成長動能。最後,自由遊艇俱樂部又迎來了一個強勁的季度,其全球分支機構數量增長至 442 個,會員旅行次數在年底達到 64 萬次以上,比 2024 年增長了 5%。
Moving on to external factors. The US Fed cut rates by 75 basis points over the latter part of 2025, with additional rate cuts anticipated in 2026. While the cuts have reduced financing costs for both dealers and consumers, they came too late in the season to have a material impact on 2025, but will be a tailwind for the 2026 season.
接下來討論外部因素。美國聯邦儲備委員會在 2025 年下半年降息 75 個基點,預計 2026 年將進一步降息。雖然這些削減措施降低了經銷商和消費者的融資成本,但為時已晚,無法對 2025 年產生實質影響,但將對 2026 年產生有利影響。
Additionally, while the geopolitical and trade environment remains very dynamic, continued equity market strength and the moderating inflation trends are also expected to create a more constructive environment. Our tariff mitigation actions in 2025 were extremely successful, offsetting over half of our gross dollar exposure, resulted in approximately $75 million of net incremental tariff impact.
此外,儘管地緣政治和貿易環境仍然非常多變,但股市持續走強和通膨趨勢趨於緩和預計也將創造一個更具建設性的環境。我們在 2025 年採取的關稅緩解措施非常成功,抵銷了超過一半的毛美元風險敞口,產生了約 7,500 萬美元的淨增量關稅影響。
While the Supreme Court decision regarding the IEEPA tariffs remains pending, US import tariffs on Mercury's Japanese competitors are projected to remain in effect in any scenario, representing a potential long-term structural advantage for Brunswick as the only domestic manufacturer of outboard engines.
儘管最高法院關於 IEEPA 關稅的裁決尚未出爐,但預計在任何情況下,美國對 Mercury 的日本競爭對手徵收的進口關稅都將繼續有效,這對 Brunswick 作為美國唯一的舷外發動機製造商而言,可能具有長期的結構性優勢。
Notwithstanding the outstanding IEEPA decision, with the US import tariffs anticipated to be in effect for the full year of 2026 versus a partial year in 2025, we expect to incur further incremental tariff costs of approximately $35 million to $45 million in 2026 net of continuing mitigation actions.
儘管 IEEPA 裁決尚未出台,但由於預計美國進口關稅將在 2026 年全年生效,而不是像 2025 年那樣只生效部分年份,我們預計在 2026 年將產生約 3500 萬美元至 4500 萬美元的額外關稅成本,這還不包括持續的緩解措施。
OEM, dealer and customer sentiment is improving with healthy pipelines and increasing boater participation benefiting all our businesses. We were particularly pleased to see Navico Group's marine OEM sales pick up in the fourth quarter, supported by well-received new products.
隨著管線健康運作和船艇用戶參與度提高,OEM廠商、經銷商和客戶的情緒都在改善,這對我們所有企業都有好處。我們尤其高興地看到,在廣受歡迎的新產品的支持下,Navico 集團的船舶 OEM 銷售額在第四季度有所回升。
Looking now at industry retail performance, the latest SSI reporting for December showed US industry retail units down about 9% for the year, with Brunswick internal US retail outperforming the market. As I noted earlier, Brunswick retail boat sales stabilized in the second half of the year, resulting in overall flat second half performance compared to prior year, and with acceleration through year-end.
現在來看看產業零售業績,SSI 12 月的最新報告顯示,美國產業零售單位數量全年下降約 9%,其中 Brunswick 內部美國零售業績優於市場。正如我之前提到的,布倫瑞克零售船艇銷售在下半年趨於穩定,導致下半年整體業績與去年持平,並在年底前加速成長。
In addition to solid performance from our historically strong premium and core brands, we also experienced some recovery in value products. Mercury Marine's leading US retail outboard share remained stable, although during the year, share was temporarily impacted by tariff-related dynamics.
除了我們歷來表現強勁的高端品牌和核心品牌之外,我們的平價產品也出現了一些復甦。Mercury Marine 在美國零售舷外機市佔率保持穩定,儘管在這一年中,市佔率曾一度受到關稅相關因素的影響。
Mercury finished the year with approximately 47% share, gaining 70 basis points overall in the second half of the year and with large gains in higher horsepower engines. Mercury also remains the clear leader in Canada, Europe and many countries around the world.
Mercury 年底的市佔率約為 47%,下半年整體成長了 70 個基點,高馬力引擎的市佔率成長尤為顯著。Mercury在加拿大、歐洲和世界許多國家仍然保持著明顯的領先地位。
Consistent with its strong outboard share performance at recent boat shows, Mercury's wholesale market share also accelerated through the fourth quarter and was up over 400 basis points in the quarter and 900 basis points in December versus prior year.
與最近幾屆船展上強勁的舷外機市場份額表現一致,Mercury 的批發市場份額在第四季度也加速增長,該季度增長超過 400 個基點,12 月份比上年同期增長 900 個基點。
As previously noted, our boat and engine pipelines are extremely low levels, the result of deliberate action over the last two years. Global but pipelines are down approximately 2,200 units from a year ago and US outboard pipelines down by approximately 10%, with retail sales significantly outpacing wholesale.
如前所述,我們的船舶和引擎管道的液位極低,這是過去兩年採取的刻意措施的結果。全球管線運輸量比一年前減少了約 2,200 台,美國外海管線運輸量減少了約 10%,零售銷售量明顯超過批發銷售量。
In addition, as of year-end, our global boat order backlog was 79% of our first quarter wholesale forecast, up 13 percentage points from the same time last year. Brunswick delivered outstanding free cash flow of $442 million in 2025 with continued benefits from our recurring revenue businesses that represented approximately 60% of our earnings this year, and continued operational and working capital discipline.
此外,截至年底,我們的全球船舶訂單積壓量達到第一季批發預測的 79%,比去年同期成長 13 個百分點。Brunswick 2025 年實現了 4.42 億美元的卓越自由現金流,這得益於我們經常性收入業務的持續成長(這些業務約占我們今年收益的 60%),以及持續的營運和營運資本紀律。
Our cash performance has enabled us to support planned investments in industry-leading products and technology, return capital to shareholders and efficiently retire more debt than previously planned. Our investment-grade balance sheet was further strengthened by the retirement of approximately $240 million of debt this year, exceeding our guidance and commitments and putting us firmly on track towards our 2 times net leverage target.
我們的現金流表現使我們能夠支持對行業領先的產品和技術的計劃投資,向股東返還資本,並高效地償還比之前計劃更多的債務。今年償還了約 2.4 億美元的債務,進一步加強了我們投資級的資產負債表,超過了我們的預期和承諾,使我們穩步朝著 2 倍淨槓桿率的目標邁進。
We're progressing towards this goal while maintaining significant financial flexibility, and at year-end, we had $1.3 billion in liquidity, including access to our undrawn revolving credit facility. In December, we converted $300 million of long-term debt into rate-advantaged commercial paper, reducing interest expense and setting up additional debt retirement in 2026, supported by continued strong free cash flow generation.
我們朝著這個目標穩步前進,同時保持了相當大的財務彈性。到年底,我們擁有 13 億美元的流動資金,其中包括未提取的循環信貸額度。12 月,我們將 3 億美元的長期債務轉換為利率優惠的商業票據,從而降低了利息支出,並為 2026 年的額外債務償還做好了準備,這得益於持續強勁的自由現金流。
A series of thoughtful capital strategy actions initiated at the end of 2024 will reduce our expected 2026 interest expense by approximately $40 million, including the benefits or an additional $160 million or more anticipated debt retirement this year, while still allowing us to make our planned new product, AI and other investments, as well as return capital to shareholders.
一系列於 2024 年底啟動的深思熟慮的資本戰略行動,將使我們預計 2026 年的利息支出減少約 4000 萬美元,其中包括今年預計償還的 1.6 億美元或更多債務所帶來的收益,同時還能讓我們進行計劃中的新產品、人工智能和其他投資,以及向股東返還資本。
I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to provide additional comments on our 2025 financial performance and our initial outlook for 2026.
現在我將把電話交給 Ryan,讓他就我們 2025 年的財務業績和 2026 年的初步展望提供更多評論。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's fourth quarter performance came in ahead of expectations with sales and earnings in each of our segments exceeding fourth quarter 2024. On a consolidated basis, sales were up 16%, reflecting improved market conditions, increased wholesale shipments to our channel partners, pricing actions taken earlier in the year, a lower discounting environment and continued solid boating participation, driving growth in our P&A and aftermarket businesses.
謝謝你,戴夫,大家早安。Brunswick 第四季的業績超出預期,我們各個業務部門的銷售額和收益都超過了 2024 年第四季的水平。綜合來看,銷售額成長了 16%,這反映了市場狀況的改善、向通路合作夥伴的批發出貨量的增加、年初採取的價格措施、較低的折扣環境以及持續穩健的船舶市場參與度,從而推動了我們的 P&A 和售後市場業務的成長。
It's also worth noting that this growth was not only broad-based across all segments in the quarter, but also across all global regions. Q4 earnings improved 41% versus prior year as the impact of higher sales, along with increased absorption from comparatively higher production levels and operational improvements, more than offset the enterprise headwinds of incremental tariffs and the restatement of variable compensation, which affected each business.
值得注意的是,這一成長不僅在本季度涵蓋了所有細分市場,而且遍及所有全球地區。第四季度收益較上年同期增長 41%,這主要得益於銷售額的增長,以及相對較高的生產水平和運營改進帶來的成本吸收增加,這些因素足以抵消關稅增加和可變薪酬重述等對各業務造成影響的企業不利因素。
Lastly, we generated $88 million of free cash flow in the fourth quarter, wrapping up a tremendous year of cash generation. As expected, free cash flow was down from the unseasonably high fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting a more normalized working capital environment and higher production levels across our businesses.
最後,我們在第四季產生了 8,800 萬美元的自由現金流,為現金流充裕的一年畫下了圓滿的句點。如預期的那樣,自由現金流較 2024 年第四季異常高的水平有所下降,反映出營運資本環境更加正常化,以及我們各項業務的生產水準有所提高。
On a full year basis, sales increased 2%, driven by improved second half market conditions and resulting stronger wholesale orders together with strong P&A and aftermarket performance, helping to overcome the impacts of the challenging first half retail environment.
全年來看,銷售額增長了 2%,這得益於下半年市場狀況的改善以及由此帶來的更強勁的批發訂單,以及強勁的包裝和售後市場表現,從而幫助克服了充滿挑戰的上半年零售環境的影響。
Full year adjusted operating earnings and diluted EPS ended slightly above expectations, but below the prior year, mainly reflecting the impact of incremental tariffs and the reinstated variable compensation. Outside of these two impacts, we would have shown strong adjusted earnings growth for the year.
全年調整後營業利潤和稀釋後每股收益略高於預期,但低於上年,主要反映了增量關稅和恢復浮動薪酬的影響。排除這兩項影響,我們本年度的調整後獲利成長將十分強勁。
The earnings impacts of the sales growth, inclusive of pricing and improved discounting levels, together with tariff mitigation efforts, helped partially offset these earnings headwinds. We generated $442 million of free cash flow in the year, up 56% year-over-year and exceeded our increased guidance from the last quarter. In one of the most challenging years for the industry since the GFC, we generated the third highest full year free cash flow in Brunswick's history.
銷售成長帶來的收益影響(包括定價和折扣水準的提高)以及關稅緩解措施,在一定程度上抵消了這些收益不利因素。本年度我們產生了 4.42 億美元的自由現金流,年增 56%,超過了上一季我們提高後的預期。在自全球金融危機以來,對整個產業而言最具挑戰性的一年裡,我們創造了 Brunswick 史上第三高的全年自由現金流。
Now we'll look at each reporting segment's performance for the quarter, starting with our Propulsion business, which grew sales for the third consecutive quarter. Sales were up 23% with double-digit increases in all product categories resulting primarily from strong OEM orders heading into the early 2026 retail season.
現在我們將查看每個報告部門本季的業績,首先是我們的推進系統業務,該業務連續第三個季度實現了銷售額成長。銷售額成長了 23%,所有產品類別均實現了兩位數的成長,這主要得益於 2026 年初零售季到來之際強勁的 OEM 訂單。
Segment adjusted operating earnings and margin also increased significantly compared to prior year due to the impacts of increased sales and higher absorption from increased production levels, offsetting the incremental tariff impact and the reinstatement of variable compensation.
由於銷售額增加和產量提高帶來的更高吸收率的影響,與上年相比,分部調整後的營業收入和利潤率也大幅增長,抵消了關稅增加的影響和可變薪酬的恢復。
Our aftermarket recurring revenue Engine Parts & Accessories business also grew sales for the third consecutive quarter, with fourth quarter sales up 15% versus prior year. Sales growth accelerated from the third quarter for both products and distribution, reflecting strong voter participation, favorable weather in many regions in the back half of the year and continued share gains in our distribution business.
我們的售後市場經常性收入-引擎零件及配件業務的銷售額也連續第三個季度成長,第四季銷售額比上年同期成長了 15%。從第三季開始,產品和分銷的銷售成長均加速,這反映出選民的積極參與、下半年許多地區的有利天氣以及我們在分銷業務中持續獲得的份額增長。
Q4 adjusted operating earnings increased 7% with slightly lower margins due primarily to the mix impact from the stronger growth in distribution sales. Despite the compensation and tariff headwinds, a sluggish first half retail environment and a slight mix shift towards our distribution business, our full year adjusted operating earnings for the P&A business were essentially flat to 2024, continuing to validate that prioritizing recurring aftermarket revenue is essential to driving performance through the cycle from our differentiated balanced business model.
第四季調整後營業利潤成長7%,但利潤率略有下降,這主要是由於分銷銷售強勁成長帶來的產品組合變化所致。儘管面臨補償和關稅方面的不利因素、上半年零售環境疲軟以及分銷業務略微轉向其他業務,但我們 P&A 業務的全年調整後營業利潤到 2024 年基本持平,這繼續證明,優先考慮經常性售後市場收入對於透過我們差異化的平衡業務模式推動整個週期的業績至關重要。
Navico Group grew sales for the second quarter in a row, increasing 4% over the prior year, driven by solid OEM orders and steady aftermarket performance during the important holiday selling season. Improving Navico Group's financial performance remains a critical focus for our entire team, and we are seeing the results of strategic actions, including continued investment into new products, product portfolio optimization and operational measures.
納維科集團連續第二季實現銷售額成長,比上年同期成長 4%,這主要得益於穩健的 OEM 訂單和重要的假日銷售季期間穩定的售後市場表現。改善 Navico 集團的財務表現仍然是我們整個團隊的重點,我們正在看到策略行動的成果,包括持續投資新產品、優化產品組合和採取營運措施。
While many new exciting products are still to come, we believe that we are now seeing the early benefits of our recently developed and launched, competitively priced new products winning in the market, especially in our electronics portfolio.
雖然未來還會推出許多令人興奮的新產品,但我們相信,我們現在已經看到了近期開發和推出的、價格具有競爭力的新產品在市場上取得成功的早期效益,尤其是在我們的電子產品組合中。
The Navico Group's outstanding operational performance in the quarter helped translate the sales growth into strong adjusted operating earnings and margins, which were up 180 basis points from the prior year as benefits from higher sales, new product investments, portfolio optimization and cost control measures more than offset the enterprise headwinds. Finally, our Boat segment had a strong quarter, reporting an 11% sales increase over the prior year with growth from both boat sales and the business acceleration portfolio.
Navico 集團本季出色的營運表現有助於將銷售成長轉化為強勁的調整後營業利潤和利潤率,較上年同期增長 180 個基點,這得益於銷售額增長、新產品投資、產品組合優化和成本控制措施帶來的收益,這些收益足以抵消企業面臨的不利因素。最後,我們的船舶業務板塊本季表現強勁,銷售額比上年同期成長了 11%,這得益於船舶銷售和業務加速組合的成長。
Our Boat group sales were led by increases in our recreational fiberglass and aluminum boat brands, while Freedom Boat Club continued its growth journey, with network-wide increases in trips, members and locations during the quarter.
我們的船艇集團銷售額主要得益於休閒玻璃鋼和鋁製船艇品牌的成長,而 Freedom Boat Club 也持續保持成長勢頭,本季全網的旅行次數、會員人數和地點數量均有所增加。
Note that the Boat group increased sales in each of the premium, core and value categories, continuing the success from the third quarter. Segment adjusted operating earnings and margin were both up significantly. Adjusted operating margin expanded 290 basis points benefiting from the impact of higher sales, including annual model-year pricing actions and improved discounting levels, along with increased production driving improved absorption, which handily offset headwinds from the enterprise factors.
值得注意的是,博特集團在高端、核心和經濟型產品類別的銷售額均有所成長,延續了第三季的成功動能。分部調整後的營業利潤和利潤率均大幅成長。經調整後的營業利潤率成長了 290 個基點,這得益於銷售額的成長,包括年度車型定價措施和折扣水準的提高,以及產量增加帶來的吸收率提高,這些都輕鬆抵消了企業因素帶來的不利影響。
As Dave mentioned earlier, we finished the year with very healthy dealer pipelines, with retail sales outpacing wholesale, setting us up favorably for 2026 in a variety of market scenarios.
正如戴夫之前提到的,我們以非常健康的經銷商通路結束了這一年,零售額超過了批發額,這為我們在 2026 年的各種市場情況下奠定了有利地位。
Moving to our outlook, as we enter 2026, Brunswick is extremely well positioned to benefit from the building market tailwinds that were evident in the retail market stabilization experienced in the second half of 2025. Given the very dynamic geopolitical and trade backdrop, we plan to continue to relentlessly drive operating efficiencies and are encouraged by the strong reception for our many new and exciting products, our low and fresh boat and engine field pipelines, the improving sentiment across our network and the market's anticipation of further interest rate cuts during the year.
展望未來,進入 2026 年,布倫瑞克已做好充分準備,將受益於建築市場順風,而這種順風在 2025 年下半年零售市場穩定中已顯而易見。鑑於當前瞬息萬變的地緣政治和貿易環境,我們計劃繼續不懈地提高營運效率,並對我們眾多令人興奮的新產品、低價新鮮的船舶和發動機領域管道、我們網絡中不斷改善的市場情緒以及市場對年內進一步降息的預期感到鼓舞。
Our guidance assumes a flat to slightly up US retail boat market, with anticipated wholesale sales to more closely match retail throughout our businesses, along with continued stable boating participation. It also assumes the recent relative macro environment stability continues through the year.
我們的預測假設美國零售船艇市場保持穩定或略有成長,預計批發銷售額將與我們所有業務的零售銷售額更加接近,同時船艇參與度將保持穩定。它也假設近期相對穩定的宏觀環境將持續到年底。
These assumptions translate into the guidance you see on this page, with anticipated revenue of between $5.6 billion and $5.8 billion, adjusted operating margins between 7.5% and 8%, and adjusted EPS in the range of $3.80 and $4.40. We continue to expect strong free cash flow in excess of $350 million representing at least 125% free cash flow conversion as benefits from earnings growth and continued net working capital management help offset the over $100 million cash impact of the reinstatement of variable compensation earned in 2025 and paid in the first half of 2026.
這些假設轉化為您在本頁看到的業績指引,預計營收在56億美元至58億美元之間,調整後營業利潤率在7.5%至8%之間,調整後每股收益在3.80美元至4.40美元之間。我們仍預期強勁的自由現金流將超過3.5億美元,自由現金流轉換率至少達到125%。獲利成長和持續的淨營運資本管理將有助於抵銷恢復2025年已賺取、將於2026年上半年支付的可變薪酬所帶來的超過1億美元的現金影響。
We anticipate improvement in wholesale ordering patterns in Q1 given season retail strength, including steady boat show performance and low dealer pipelines. Directional guidance for Q1 reflects growth in net sales versus the first quarter of 2025, with adjusted EPS between $0.35 and $0.45 being burdened by a majority of the full year incremental tariff cost as 2025 tariffs did not materially begin until April, together with increased investments in the first quarter on critical product programs.
我們預計第一季批發訂單模式將有所改善,因為零售旺季表現強勁,包括穩定的船展業績和較低的經銷商庫存。第一季業績指引反映了淨銷售額較 2025 年第一季增加,調整後每股收益在 0.35 美元至 0.45 美元之間,主要受全年新增關稅成本的影響,因為 2025 年的關稅直到 4 月才正式生效,此外,第一季度對關鍵產品項目的投資也有所增加。
Next, we'll take a closer look at the components of our guided $4.10 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint, which reflects approximately 25% growth over 2025, consistent with the initial 2026 thoughts that we shared last quarter. The main driver of the earnings improvement is the impact of the anticipated sales increases, which should carry incremental earnings north of 20%. Included in the sales increase are benefits from annual pricing actions and a lower discounting environment, continued mix benefits toward more premium products and higher content and volume increases as we better match retail and wholesale throughout the year.
接下來,我們將仔細研究我們給出的調整後每股收益預期中位數為 4.10 美元的組成部分,這反映了到 2025 年增長約 25%,與我們上個季度分享的 2026 年初步預期一致。獲利改善的主要驅動因素是預期銷售額成長的影響,這將帶來超過 20% 的增量收益。銷售成長包括年度定價措施和折扣環境降低的好處,以及隨著我們全年更好地匹配零售和批發,產品組合持續向高端產品傾斜,以及含量和銷售增加的好處。
We also anticipate favorable earnings impacts from currency, capital strategy and continued cost reduction programs across the enterprise, mainly improving gross margins. In part to drive the sales improvements, we do anticipate an increase in full year operating expenses but believe OpEx spending will remain consistent with 2025 on a percentage of sales basis.
我們也預期匯率、資本策略以及企業持續的成本削減計畫將對獲利產生有利影響,主要體現在毛利率的提高上。為了推動銷售成長,我們預計全年營運費用將有所增加,但我們相信營運支出佔銷售額的百分比將與 2025 年保持一致。
The large majority of the OpEx increase relates to growth investments in critical product and technology programs, sales and marketing efforts to drive demand, and necessary systems and infrastructure upgrades. The only other anticipated EPS headwind would be the continued impact of incremental tariffs, which under the current legislation, we estimate to be between $35 million and $45 million or approximately $0.60 of EPS.
營運支出增加的大部分與關鍵產品和技術項目的成長投資、推動需求的銷售和行銷工作以及必要的系統和基礎設施升級有關。唯一預期的其他每股收益不利因素是增量關稅的持續影響,根據現行法律,我們估計這將造成 3,500 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元的損失,或約佔每股收益 0.60 美元。
This is a net tariff headwind resulting from the full year impact of the tariffs instituted in 2025 and assumes that we will continue to be successful in our aggressive tariff mitigation strategies as we continue to use self-developed AI tools, sourcing optimization, value engineering, trade provisions and other methods to reduce tariff impacts.
這是 2025 年實施的關稅全年影響造成的淨關稅逆風,並假設我們將繼續成功地實施積極的關稅緩解策略,繼續使用自主開發的 AI 工具、採購優化、價值工程、貿易條款和其他方法來減少關稅影響。
As you can see, we remain quite bullish about our opportunities for success in 2026. I'll end my prepared remarks this morning with a quick review on other P&L and cash flow assumptions underlying our annual guidance. We believe that our capital expenditures spending and annual depreciation expense will be similar to 2025 levels as we remain in harvest phase for most of our recent capital initiatives and believe that we have sufficient capacity available for a multiyear growth vector.
如您所見,我們對 2026 年的成功機會仍然非常樂觀。今天上午,我將以對年度業績指引所依據的其他損益表和現金流假設的簡要回顧來結束我的發言。我們相信,由於我們最近的大部分資本項目仍處於收穫階段,因此我們的資本支出和年度折舊費用將與 2025 年的水平相似,並且我們相信我們有足夠的產能來實現多年的增長。
We plan to generate approximately $50 million of net working capital as we drive continued inventory and balance sheet improvement even with anticipated stronger production. Finally, as Dave mentioned earlier, we anticipate retiring no less than $160 million of debt throughout the year, resulting in a total of $400 million of debt retirement between 2025 and 2026, which would leave us with net debt leverage of 2.5 times or lower by the end of the year.
即使預計產量會更高,我們仍計劃透過持續改善庫存和資產負債表來產生約 5,000 萬美元的淨營運資本。最後,正如戴夫之前提到的,我們預計全年將償還不少於 1.6 億美元的債務,從而在 2025 年至 2026 年間總共償還 4 億美元的債務,這將使我們在年底前的淨債務槓桿率達到 2.5 倍或更低。
Returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases is always a priority, and our plan anticipates a slight dividend increase later this quarter, while continuing our systematic share repurchase program with approximately $50 million of repurchases planned for the year, while remaining opportunistic should cash flow and valuations continue to be supportive.
透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還資本始終是我們的首要任務,我們的計劃預計將在本季度晚些時候略微提高分紅,同時繼續執行我們系統的股票回購計劃,計劃今年回購約 5000 萬美元,如果現金流和估值繼續保持有利,我們將保持機會主義。
Lastly, please see the appendix for segment level guidance and other assumptions. I will now pass the call back over to Dave for concluding remarks.
最後,請參閱附錄,以了解細分市場層面的指導意見和其他假設。現在我將把電話轉回給戴夫,請他做總結發言。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Ryan. As we wrap up the call, I would like to highlight some exciting events, new product launches and awards from a very busy January. At the beginning of the month, Brunswick again exhibited at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas where we leveraged this unique global technology stage to showcase our full portfolio of industry-leading products and technology, including our ACES and Boating Intelligence solutions.
謝謝你,瑞恩。在通話即將結束之際,我想重點介紹一月份繁忙日程中的一些令人興奮的活動、新產品發布和獲獎情況。本月初,Brunswick 再次參加了在拉斯維加斯舉行的消費性電子展,我們利用這個獨特的全球技術舞台,展示了我們全系列領先業界的產品和技術,包括我們的 ACES 和船舶智慧解決方案。
We launched the all-new Sea Ray SLX 360, our first-ever boat launch at CES, which is packed with Mercury Marine and Navico Group technology and was fitted with Simrad's AutoCaptain autonomous boating system. We also debuted the FLITE RACE eFoil, a collaboration between Fliteboard and Mercury Racing. Capable of speeds over 30 miles per hour, this product sets a new industry performance benchmark for electric watercraft.
我們在 CES 上推出了全新的 Sea Ray SLX 360,這是我們首次在 CES 上推出新船,它融合了 Mercury Marine 和 Navico Group 的技術,並配備了 Simrad 的 AutoCaptain 自主航行系統。我們也首次推出了 FLITE RACE eFoil,這是 Fliteboard 和 Mercury Racing 合作推出的產品。這款產品最高時速可達 30 英里/小時以上,為電動水上交通工具樹立了新的行業性能標竿。
In addition, we debuted the Mercury 808 Concept, based on the current, very capable and expandable 600 horsepower V12 outboard platform, which provides a vision for the future of ultra-high horsepower outboard propulsion. Brunswick was recognized with several awards at CES. Simrad AutoCaptain was honored with a CES Pick Award. Our overall exhibit was recognized as a Top 10 Best Both Experience. And Brunswick is a finalist for the Best of Show Awards, which recognizes the best experiential exhibits.
此外,我們還推出了 Mercury 808 概念船,該船基於目前性能卓越且可擴展的 600 馬力 V12 舷外機平台,為超高馬力舷外推進的未來提供了願景。Brunswick 在 CES 上榮獲多項獎項。Simrad AutoCaptain 榮獲 CES 精選獎。我們的整體展覽被評為十大最佳體驗之一。布倫瑞克入圍了最佳展覽獎的決賽名單,該獎項旨在表彰最佳體驗式展覽。
Moving on to recent boat shows, we are encouraged by the high levels of engagement and positive customer sentiment observed at recent major shows. This was reflected in our performance at the Fort Lauderdale Show where our premium boat brands delivered 15% overall revenue growth versus the prior year show and Mercury had a record-breaking 61% overall outboard share.
接下來談談最近的船展,我們對最近幾屆大型展會上觀察到的高參與度和積極的客戶情緒感到鼓舞。這體現在我們勞德代爾堡展會上的表現中,我們的高端遊艇品牌與上屆展會相比實現了 15% 的整體收入增長,而 Mercury 的舷外機市場份額更是創下了 61% 的紀錄。
At the world's largest boat show in Dusseldorf, Germany, we debuted the Navan T30 model and our premium fiberglass brands recorded year-over-year sales growth. Mercury had more than 50% share of all outboards at the show, almost triple the nearest competitor and added to its recent run of signing multiyear, exclusive supply agreements with some of Europe's largest and fastest-growing boat OEMs.
在德國杜塞爾多夫舉辦的世界最大遊艇展上,我們推出了 Navan T30 型號,我們的高端玻璃纖維品牌實現了同比增長。在展會上,Mercury 佔據了所有舷外機 50% 以上的市場份額,幾乎是排名第二的競爭對手的三倍,並且延續了其近期與歐洲一些規模最大、增長最快的船舶 OEM 簽署多年獨家供應協議的勢頭。
We were also proud to receive award recognition at these various boat shows. Our Navan S30 model won Motorboat of Year and our Sea Ray SDX 270 Surf model was awarded European Powerboat of the Year, in their respective classes. At the Minneapolis Boat Show, Princecraft earned its second consecutive NMMA Innovation Award for the all-new Platinum 190 model, which is recognized for its premium engineering and class-leading fishing features.
我們也為在這些不同的船展上獲得獎項認可而感到自豪。我們的 Navan S30 型號榮獲年度最佳摩托艇獎,而我們的 Sea Ray SDX 270 Surf 型號則榮獲各自級別中的歐洲年度最佳動力艇獎。在明尼阿波利斯遊艇展上,Princecraft 憑藉全新 Platinum 190 型號連續第二次榮獲 NMMA 創新獎,該型號因其卓越的工程設計和一流的釣魚功能而備受認可。
Finally, as you all know, we pride ourselves on being an employer of choice, an innovator in our space and a responsible and trustworthy company. For the fourth consecutive year, we surpassed 100 awards for our people, our culture, our products and our innovation.
最後,正如大家所知,我們一直以成為首選雇主、行業創新者以及負責任和值得信賴的公司而自豪。我們連續第四年獲得了超過 100 個獎項,這些獎項表彰了我們的員工、企業文化、產品和創新。
Notably, many of these awards are national awards from media outlets such as Newsweek, USA. Today, Time and Forbes that we've received for multiple years. However, for the first time in 2026, Brunswick was named to Forbes America's Best Companies list.
值得注意的是,其中許多獎項都是來自美國《新聞週刊》等媒體的國家級獎項。今天,我們收到了多年來一直收到的《時代》和《富比士》雜誌的報道。然而,2026 年,Brunswick 首次榮登福布斯美國最佳公司榜單。
Thank you again to all our talented Brunswick employees who make this recognition possible. Before I finish, I would like to remind you of our investor and analyst event during the upcoming Miami Boat Show which will include a tour of Brunswick's many exhibits and products at the show followed by a cocktail hour at the Ritz-Carlton on South Beach. We look forward to offering you the opportunity to see our exciting products and technologies as well as meet with members of our management team.
再次感謝所有才華洋溢的布倫瑞克員工,正是他們的努力才使得這份榮譽成為可能。在結束之前,我想提醒各位,我們將在即將到來的邁阿密遊艇展期間舉辦投資者和分析師活動,活動內容包括參觀 Brunswick 在展會上的眾多展品和產品,隨後在南海灘麗思卡爾頓酒店享用雞尾酒。我們期待為您提供機會,讓您親眼目睹我們令人興奮的產品和技術,並與我們的管理團隊成員會面。
Thank you for your attention. We will now open the line for questions.
感謝您的關注。現在我們將開放提問通道。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
James Hardiman, Citi.
詹姆斯‧哈迪曼,花旗集團。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
So I think given your track record, I think most investors have a high degree of confidence that you can deliver given sort of whatever the retail assumptions are. I think the retail assumptions are ultimately what so many investors struggle to underwrite at this point. And so maybe, I guess, to start, what specifically was the retail performance in the fourth quarter? Obviously, we get some of the SSI data which showed certainly November and December down. You talked about flat for the second half.
所以我覺得,鑑於你以往的業績,大多數投資者都對你能夠實現目標抱有很高的信心,無論零售業的假設是什麼。我認為,目前很多投資人難以接受的,歸根究底,就是零售業的種種假設。那麼,我想,首先,第四季的零售業績具體如何呢?顯然,我們從一些SSI數據可以看出,11月和12月的數據確實有所下降。你提到下半場會比較平淡。
But I'm curious specifically sort of how you finish the year, and as you carry that forward to 2026, what gives you confidence that flat to up is the right way to think about the full year?
但我特別好奇您是如何看待今年的收尾工作,以及展望 2026 年,是什麼讓您確信持平或上升是看待全年的正確方式?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. James, as you mentioned, on a unit basis, we were flat, basically within 10 units or something. It was particularly flat, if you like. And as we noted, I think we saw continued strength in premium and core. Obviously, that's about 75% of our portfolio and about 90% of our gross margin. So that is a tailwind for us.
是的。James,正如你所說,從單位數量來看,我們基本上持平,基本上相差不超過 10 個單位。如果你願意這麼說的話,那就是地勢特別平坦。正如我們所指出的,我認為我們看到了高端市場和核心市場持續走強。顯然,這約占我們投資組合的 75%,約占我們毛利率的 90%。這對我們來說是個利好因素。
We did, though, see some recovery in the value part of the business, which is nice to see. As you know, that has been the major source of weakness in the first half of the year. That is a more economically sensitive customer, I would say, probably a bit more unsettled by some of the events in the first half of the year.
不過,我們確實看到公司價值業務出現了一些復甦,令人欣慰。如您所知,這正是今年上半年業績的主要弱點所在。我認為,這類客戶對經濟狀況更為敏感,可能更容易受到今年上半年發生的一些事件的影響。
But in terms of tailwinds into the -- into 2026, in the latter part of 2025, as you know, we got about 75 basis points of rate cuts, but they all really occurred too late in the season to be very material for 2025. But they will affect 2026. I think there's some uncertainty over the timing of further rate cuts, but I think they are likely to come. So probably through the season, we'll end up with at least 100 basis points of year-over-year rate improvement, which is helpful for our end consumers.
但就2026年的利多因素而言,如您所知,在2025年下半年,我們獲得了約75個基點的降息,但這些降息都發生在賽季末,對2025年的影響並不大。但它們將對2026年產生影響。我認為進一步降息的時機存在一些不確定性,但我認為降息是很有可能的。因此,本季我們最終可能會實現至少 100 個基點的年比利率改善,這對我們的終端消費者來說是有益的。
We have clearly seen retail financing rates response to this, and retail rates are down around 7.5% now versus 9% to 10% at peak. And then it's very helpful for our dealers as well. Equity markets remained strong, which is helpful for our premium buyers.
我們已經清楚地看到零售融資利率對此作出了反應,目前零售利率已降至 7.5% 左右,而峰值時為 9% 至 10%。而且這對我們的經銷商也很有幫助。股票市場依然強勁,這對我們的高端買家來說是有利的。
And then we did see somewhat of an acceleration, I guess, as we went through the quarter. And that is retailers continue -- as you know, we're always very cautious about closing numbers for when it's such a -- when the volumes are so low at this time of the year.
然後,隨著季度的推進,我們確實看到了某種程度的加速成長。零售商們繼續進行——正如您所知,在每年的這個時候銷量如此低迷的情況下,我們總是對最終的成交數字非常謹慎。
But retail is up double digits so far this year despite the inclement weather and a few other things going on around the country. So I think overall material tailwinds and evidenced on a small scale at least so far in the year, that that is translating to solid to positive retail.
儘管天氣惡劣,全國各地也發生了一些其他事情,但今年迄今零售業仍實現了兩位數的成長。所以我認為,總體而言,從小規模來看,至少今年到目前為止,各種利好因素都表明,零售業正在穩定成長甚至呈現正態勢。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it. That's really helpful. And just to clarify, I think you just said, just to underscore, retail up double digits so far in January. I just want to make sure that that's sort of on the record here.
知道了。這真的很有幫助。澄清一下,我想你剛才說的是,為了強調,1 月零售額迄今為止實現了兩位數的成長。我只是想確保這件事被記錄在案。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
That's right.
這是正確的。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Okay. And then as we think about inventories, obviously, good work bringing down global pipeline, I think, 2,200 units in 2025. How should we think about that number for 2026? Is that a 0 in 2026, i.e., wholesale equals retail? Or do we expect a little bit more of a reduction?
好的。然後,當我們考慮庫存時,顯然,全球在建項目進展順利,我認為到 2025 年將庫存降至 2200 台。我們該如何看待2026年的這個數字?2026 年的批發價是否為 0,即批發價等於零售價?或者我們預期降幅會更大一些?
Obviously, one of your big, if not biggest, customers is speaking to stubbornly high inventories at least around the industry with maybe one more quarter remaining. Maybe square that with how you're thinking about things.
顯然,你們的大客戶(如果不是最大的客戶)正在反映,至少在整個行業內,庫存仍然居高不下,可能還要再過一個季度才能恢復正常。或許可以把這和你思考問題的方式連結起來。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, James, I'll take that. So we have taken pipeline units out each of the last several years. I would say in '26, we expect that to be probably flat to maybe taking out a couple of hundred units at most. I mean our goal really is to match wholesale and retail this year, which would mean wholesale growth, obviously, year-over-year versus last year.
是的,詹姆斯,我接受。所以過去幾年,我們每年都會抽出管道裝置。我認為在 2026 年,我們預計銷量可能會持平,最多可能增加數百輛。我的意思是,我們今年的目標是批發和零售額達到平衡,這顯然意味著批發額比去年實現同比增長。
And as it relates to maybe your last comment, I would say -- I think our biggest distributor would say that our inventory in their hands is quite fresh and in very good levels. So the pockets that are -- maybe were mentioned are, we don't believe, are Brunswick inventory. And in fact, Sea Ray and Whale specifically in our hands are in really good shape and lean to start the season.
至於你最後提到的問題,我想說——我認為我們最大的經銷商會說,他們手中的庫存非常新鮮,而且庫存水平也非常好。所以,那些被提及的口袋,我們認為並不是 Brunswick 的庫存。事實上,我們手中的 Sea Ray 和 Whale 船型狀態都非常好,為新賽季做好了充分的準備。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it. And just if I could just squeeze in one more. Obviously, your specific brands are all that matters for you, right, given your Propulsion business, your P&A business. Do you think sort of competitive or, I guess, a better way to put it, industry inventory levels even to come down is at all a headwind as we think about some of those other segments?
知道了。如果我能再擠出一個就好了。顯然,對你來說,最重要的就是你的品牌,對吧?畢竟你經營的是推進系統業務和 P&A 業務。您認為,競爭加劇,或者更確切地說,行業庫存水準下降,是否會對我們考慮其他一些細分市場構成不利影響?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I don't think so, James. I mean in terms of flow-through to us, we've seen very solid ordering. We mentioned on the call that our wholesale orders so far satisfied close to 80% of our Q1 production, which is up 13 points versus last year. So thus far, in terms of dealer pull, we are not seeing any evidence that they are holding back on orders kind of on a year-over-year basis.
我不這麼認為,詹姆斯。我的意思是,就我們這邊的訂單量而言,我們看到了非常穩定的訂單情況。我們在電話會議上提到,到目前為止,我們的批發訂單已經滿足了我們第一季近 80% 的產量,比去年同期增加了 13 個百分點。所以到目前為止,就經銷商的需求而言,我們沒有看到任何證據表明他們在同比方面有所減少訂單。
Operator
Operator
Craig Kennison, Baird.
克雷格·肯尼森,貝爾德。
Craig Kennison - Analyst
Craig Kennison - Analyst
I'm trying to understand the dynamics that might push retail back to at least closer to historical trends. What can you tell us about, I guess, repeat buyer behavior and any deferred trade-up cycle that could eventually be released based on any consumer data you have?
我正在努力了解可能推動零售業至少更接近歷史趨勢的各種因素。您能否根據您掌握的消費者數據,告訴我們一些關於重複購買行為以及可能最終推出的任何延遲升級換代週期方面的問題?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Craig, thanks for the question. Yes, as you know, I mean, we still have a huge gap between industry new boat sales and replacement rates. And we think the natural replacement rate in the fleet is probably in the $225,000 plus range. And this year -- or 2025 will be in the 130-something range.
是的。克雷格,謝謝你的提問。是的,正如你所知,我的意思是,目前行業新船銷售量和更換率之間仍然存在巨大差距。我們認為,車隊的自然更換率可能在 22.5 萬美元以上。而今年——或者說 2025 年——將達到 130 多歲。
So that is a kind of natural pull. I also think that there is some deferred purchases from the depressed kind of overall industry sales in the past few years. So people have waited for the right buying conditions to reenter the market.
所以這是一種自然的吸引力。我也認為,過去幾年整體產業銷售低迷,導致一些採購被推遲。因此,人們一直在等待合適的買入時機重新進入市場。
Generally, we continue to see new boaters come in around the historical pace, I would say, of 25%-ish of new boat sales. But as you think about the shocks that we've experienced over the last several years, some -- certainly on the interest rate side, conditions have not been positive and constructive. We are beginning to see that normalize.
總的來說,我們看到新船艇用戶繼續以接近歷史平均的速度成長,約佔新船艇銷售量的 25%。但當你回想過去幾年我們經歷的衝擊時,你會發現,有些方面——尤其是在利率方面——情況並不樂觀和建設性。我們開始看到這種情況逐漸正常化。
I think if you look at inflation, obviously, the Fed would like it to be 2%, but compared with where it was two or three years ago, we're in a much more normalized situation. So I think that we -- based on depressed sales over the last few years, we likely have some buyers waiting for the right point to come back into the market. We will see the full effect of those 75 basis points to 100 basis points of rate cuts this year.
我認為,如果你看一下通貨膨脹率,顯然,聯準會希望它達到 2%,但與兩三年前相比,我們現在的情況已經正常化得多。所以我認為,根據過去幾年低迷的銷售情況來看,可能有一些買家正在等待合適的時機重返市場。今年我們將看到這75個基點至100個基點降息的全部效果。
And we have a kind of replacement -- we're well below replacement rate. So I think all of those suggest pull forces for retail. But of course, we are -- if that happens, that will be great. But at the moment, we're forecasting at least some uplift in the market.
而且我們還有某種替代機制——我們的替代率遠低於正常水平。所以我認為所有這些都表明零售業存在拉動因素。當然,如果真能如此,那就太好了。但就目前而言,我們預測市場至少會回升。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
I would also add, Craig, that we've been very thoughtful and really the industry about pricing over the last handful of years. And now you're seeing a more balanced dynamic between trade-in values for people that bought around 2020 or 2021 and what they can purchase today.
克雷格,我還想補充一點,過去幾年裡,我們在定價方面一直非常謹慎,也真正走在了行業的前列。現在,我們看到,在 2020 年或 2021 年左右購買車輛的人的舊車置換價值與他們今天能夠購買的車輛價值之間,呈現出更平衡的動態關係。
So I think people are getting a little bit more value for their trade-in. They've held it for a little bit longer, so their ability to trade up and trade back in has greatly improved now over maybe where it was two or three years ago.
所以我覺得人們的舊車置換價格更高了。他們持有的時間更長一些,因此他們現在進行向上交易和向下交易的能力比兩三年前有了很大的提高。
Operator
Operator
Gerrick Johnson, Seaport Research.
Gerrick Johnson,海港研究公司。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
I wanted to ask you about Propulsion. Outboard was up 26%. Your Boat business was up 11%. So I'm just going to infer here your sales to OEM customers really expanded nicely. Can you talk about that, your business to OEM customers and how much of your growth there is coming from existing customers and how much from new wins?
我想問你一些關於推進系統的問題。舷外機價格上漲了 26%。您的船舶業務成長了 11%。所以,我只能推斷你們面向 OEM 客戶的銷售額確實大幅成長了。您能談談貴公司面向 OEM 客戶的業務,以及貴公司的成長有多少來自現有客戶,又有多少來自新客戶嗎?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Gerrick, good questions. So yes, Brunswick's boat brands are performing very well in the marketplace. In fact, we're gaining share. But we focus a lot on the US market, and we chose to add a few more details on Europe in particular this time where -- while Mercury is gaining share in a lot of markets, a lot of parts of EU.
格里克,問得好。是的,Brunswick旗下的船艇品牌在市場上表現非常出色。事實上,我們的市佔率正在成長。但我們非常關注美國市場,這次我們特別選擇在歐洲增加一些細節,因為雖然 Mercury 在許多市場,包括歐盟的許多地區,都獲得了市場份額。
So I think we have -- we signed multiyear agreements with some of the biggest and fastest-growing OEMs in Europe recently. In fact, some of these are five-year agreements, which is quite unusual. So if you think about Mercury's strategy, obviously, it's to get best products and technology in the marketplace, advanced share, but then fortify that share by putting in place multiyear agreements.
所以我認為我們已經——我們最近與歐洲一些規模最大、成長最快的汽車製造商簽署了多年協議。事實上,其中一些協議為期五年,相當不尋常。所以,如果你想想 Mercury 的策略,很明顯,就是獲得市場上最好的產品和技術,提高市場份額,然後透過簽訂多年協議來鞏固這一市場份額。
And so I think the implications of those five-year agreements are these large and fast-growing OEMs, not just in the US but in Europe, are putting their trust that Mercury is going to be the leader for a long time. And they have seen some of our new product plans, so I think that trust is extremely well placed.
因此,我認為這些五年協議的意義在於,這些規模龐大、快速成長的汽車製造商,不僅在美國,而且在歐洲,都相信 Mercury 將在很長一段時間內保持領先。他們已經看過我們的一些新產品計劃,所以我認為這種信任非常有道理。
So yes, I think that we are growing share with new customers. We've gone exclusive with a number of customers now, that we weren't explicit with before. And we're signing longer agreements that fortify our position. Connecting what you just discussed a bit with some of the kind of strategic spending that we referred to, clearly, a significant portion of that is in Mercury. We hired 60 new Mercury engineers in 2025.
所以,是的,我認為我們正在透過新客戶擴大市場份額。現在我們已經與一些客戶建立了獨家合作關係,而之前我們並沒有明確告知這些客戶。我們正在簽署更長期的協議,以鞏固我們的地位。將你剛才討論的內容與我們提到的某些策略支出聯繫起來,顯然,其中很大一部分都投入了 Mercury 專案中。2025年,我們聘用了60位新的Mercury工程師。
So despite the fact that we're continuing to watch our spending, we are loading up for another product blitz in Mercury. We have five new outboard programs going. Obviously, we shared some details of those with some of those customers.
儘管我們仍在控制支出,但我們正在為在 Mercury 的另一輪產品推廣活動做準備。我們有五個新的舷外機計畫正在啟動。顯然,我們與其中一些客戶分享了這些細節。
So I think that yes, we're getting more customers, our existing customers are signing long-term agreements with us and a number of customers who are not exclusive to us are going exclusive. All of those effects will be posted, I think.
所以我認為,是的,我們正在獲得更多客戶,我們現有的客戶正在與我們簽訂長期協議,而且許多原本不是我們獨家客戶的客戶也正在轉變為獨家客戶。我認為所有這些影響都會公佈。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
And then, Gerrick, and it relates to just kind of the near-term Q4 and as we move into '26. So engine pipelines, which we talk a lot about both pipelines and the ability to put more wholesale into the field when pipelines are lean, our engine pipeline, so our engines that are sitting both with our dealer network and with our OEMs, are kind of at historical lean levels. We took mid-20,000 engines out in the US alone in '24. Our pipeline is about 17%. And last year, we took another 10% out just in the US alone.
然後,Gerrick,這與近期的第四季度以及我們進入 2026 年的情況有關。所以,我們經常談到引擎供應管道,包括供應管道以及在供應管道緊張時向現場批量供應更多引擎的能力。我們的發動機供應管道,也就是我們經銷商網路和原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的發動機,目前處於歷史低點。1924 年,我們光在美國就推出了 2 萬多台引擎。我們的管道建設進度約為 17%。去年,光是在美國,我們就又減產了 10%。
And so you're seeing build rates with our OEMs remain pretty static, if not improving a little bit. And their need to buy engines follow that trend. So you have the share gains and you have the benefit of low pipeline inventory sitting at the OEM leads to a pretty nice outlook that you've seen.
因此,你會發現我們與 OEM 廠商的合作生產力基本上保持不變,甚至略有提高。他們對引擎的需求也遵循了這一趨勢。因此,市佔率的成長以及OEM廠商庫存積壓少的好處,帶來了你所看到的相當不錯的前景。
Operator
Operator
Anna Glaessgen, B. Riley Securities.
Anna Glaessgen,B. Riley Securities。
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
I'd like to continue along the track of talking about pipeline and expectations for retail versus wholesale. We're expecting flattish -- flat to slightly up retail, now getting a little bit of a break on interest rates. I guess what would you think it would take to see some pipeline replenishment for wholesale to exceed retail? Or do you think we're at kind of like a new normal of lower inventory versus pre-COVID?
我想繼續探討零售和批發通路的通路建設和預期。我們預計零售業將保持穩定——持平或略有成長,目前利率方面略有下降。我想問,您認為需要滿足哪些條件才能讓批發通路的補給量超過零售通路?或者你認為我們現在正處於一種庫存低於新冠疫情前水準的新常態嗎?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Anna, thanks for the question. Yes, I don't think that we're at kind of normal as such. I mean, clearly, there are a lot of things in the last few years that have caused our channel partners to be cautious about ordering. But I would say you see sentiment across OEMs, dealers and end-customers continuing to improve and confidence to build. One of the things that's helpful for our channel partners about just holding inventory is the double effect, if you like, of interest rate reductions.
安娜,謝謝你的提問。是的,我認為我們還沒有恢復到正常狀態。我的意思是,很顯然,過去幾年裡有很多事情導致我們的通路合作夥伴在訂購時變得謹慎。但我認為,從原始設備製造商、經銷商到終端客戶,各方情緒都在持續改善,信心也不斷增強。對我們的通路夥伴來說,持有庫存的好處之一是利率下降的雙重好處。
The carrying cost is lower because float line is lower. And the margins tend to be higher because discounting is lower. So I think that as either our OEMs or channel partners calculate the carrying cost or marginal benefit, if you like, of inventory, those positive effect on both ends, the carrying costs and the demand, are both constructive at the moment.
由於浮線長度較短,因此持有成本也較低。而且由於折扣力度較小,利潤率往往更高。所以我認為,無論是我們的原始設備製造商還是通路合作夥伴,在計算庫存的持有成本或邊際收益時,目前持有成本和需求兩方面的正面影響都是建設性的。
So yes, I think it's nice to see that we are getting strong pull-through from our channel partners in this early point of the year, as evidenced, as I mentioned earlier, by a stronger fill rate, if you like, than at this point last year. So it's a case of gradually building confidence, and I think that confidence certainly is building at the moment.
所以,是的,我很高興看到我們在今年年初就從通路合作夥伴那裡獲得了強勁的銷售支持,正如我之前提到的,這體現在比去年同期更高的供貨率上。所以這是一個逐步建立信心的過程,我認為目前信心確實正在建立起來。
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Thanks, Dave. And Ryan, one on the tariff math. I guess for the full year in '25, which was partial because you didn't have 1Q impact, it was a $75 million net impact, and then for 2026, it's an incremental $35 million to $45 million, with the majority of 1Q.
謝謝你,戴夫。還有瑞安,關於關稅計算。我猜想,2025 年全年(因為沒有第一季的影響,所以只算部分)的淨影響為 7,500 萬美元,而 2026 年的增量為 3,500 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元,其中大部分來自第一季。
I guess that implies kind of a step-up in that quarterly rate, if I'm thinking about that correctly. I guess is that a function of mix, with Propulsion expected to grow more in 2026 which carries more tariff impact? Just any help there.
如果我理解正確的話,這似乎意味著季度利率會有所提高。我猜這與產品組合有關,預計推進系統在 2026 年增長更快,從而對關稅產生更大影響?任何幫助都行。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I wish it was really straightforward, Anna. But the upshot is Q1 takes the brunt because there was basically no tariffs in Q1 of last year. And then if you remember, the IEO rates kind of bounced around a little bit, and then we got the 232 incremental impact in August which, impacted the back half of the year only. And then if you remember, there is balance sheet and capitalized variance. There's some kind of accounting math that plays into this as well. And there's some of that impact in Q1.
是的。安娜,我希望事情真的像你想的那麼簡單。但結果是,第一季首當其衝受到影響,因為去年第一季基本上沒有徵收關稅。如果你還記得的話,IEO 利率有點波動,然後在 8 月出現了 232 的增量影響,這只影響了下半年。如果你還記得的話,還有資產負債表和資本化差異。這其中也涉及到一些會計數學知識。第一季已經出現了一些影響。
But really, if you think about it, the first half is going to take all the incremental tariff costs, call it, half to two-thirds of that in the first quarter, which is really that combined with accelerated product spending, which we wanted to do really in the quarter, that can be a $30-ish million number in total.
但實際上,如果你仔細想想,上半年將承擔所有新增關稅成本,比如說,第一季將承擔一半到三分之二的成本,再加上我們真正希望在本季度實現的加速產品支出,總計可能達到 3000 萬美元左右。
So if you normalize Q1 just for those two items, you're at an EPS growth of 25%-plus, which looks similar to the rest of the year. So yes, that's the tariff math. It's really the continuation of what happened in '25 with a little bit of accounting treatment roll off given the inventory valuations.
因此,如果僅根據這兩個項目對第一季進行標準化處理,則每股收益成長率將超過 25%,這與今年其他時間的情況類似。是的,這就是關稅的計算方法。這實際上是 2025 年發生的事情的延續,只是由於存貨估值方面進行了一些會計處理上的調整。
Operator
Operator
Scott Stember, ROTH Capital.
Scott Stember,ROTH Capital。
Scott Stember - Equity Analyst
Scott Stember - Equity Analyst
Can we talk about the IEEPA tariffs? Obviously, we're going to get some kind of rolling in the coming days from the Supreme Court. Just trying to get a sense of how much of a benefit you could get if they get eliminated. Could you just size up how much of your tariffs are IEEPA driven?
我們可以談談IEEPA關稅嗎?顯然,未來幾天最高法院將會有一些進展。我只是想了解一下,如果他們被淘汰,你可以得到多大的好處。能否估算一下你們的關稅中有多少是由《國際緊急經濟權力法案》(IEEPA)所驅動的?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Scott, I'll take this one as well. Yes. I mean if you look at a full year of IEEPA, call it $20 million to $25 million is the impact. And so again, that's a full year impact. You don't know when it would be effective or when it would -- if there'd be a look back and all of the above.
史考特,這個我也要。是的。我的意思是,如果以《國際緊急經濟權力法案》(IEEPA) 實施一整年為例,其影響約為 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。所以,這又是一個持續一整年的影響。你不知道它何時會生效,也不知道何時會——是否會有回顧,以及以上所有情況。
So it would be a material good guy for us, but it's only a portion of the tariffs given all the reciprocal 232 and other impacts that we're facing.
所以,這對我們來說在物質上是件好事,但考慮到我們面臨的所有相互的 232 條款和其他影響,這只是關稅的一部分。
Scott Stember - Equity Analyst
Scott Stember - Equity Analyst
Got it. And then, Dave, just following up on your comments about interest rates, financing rates for the consumer, sits at about 7.5% currently. Can you just maybe frame out how much rates have actually gone down as of late given the 75 basis points of cuts from the Fed? Just trying to get a sense of how much relief we're talking about in the actual financing rates for the consumer versus six months ago.
知道了。戴夫,關於你剛才提到的利率,消費者的融資利率目前約為 7.5%。鑑於聯準會已經降息75個基點,您能否簡單說明近期利率實際下降了多少?我只是想了解一下,與六個月前相比,消費者實際的融資利率究竟降低了多少。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So maybe I'll start a bit further back, Scott. So if you looked in 2019 of what the financing rate would be, it would be in the kind of 5.5% to 6% range. It peaked in '24 at about 10%, and now it's down to about 7.5%. So very material improvements versus peak rates.
是的。那我或許應該從更早的時候開始講,史考特。所以,如果你查看 2019 年的融資利率,它大概會在 5.5% 到 6% 的範圍內。2024 年達到峰值,約 10%,現在已降至約 7.5%。與峰值相比,改進非常顯著。
Still 150 basis points-ish above kind of pre-pandemic levels. But that is overall still a tailwind versus the last couple of years, certainly. And on top of that, as Ryan mentioned, there are a couple of other tailwinds, include the fact that our price increases over the last couple of years and this year will be pretty modest.
仍比疫情前水準高出約 150 個基點。但與過去幾年相比,這總體上仍然是一個有利因素。此外,正如瑞恩所提到的,還有其他一些利多因素,包括過去幾年和今年我們的價格上漲幅度將相當溫和。
And the trading values are beginning to normalize versus some of the kind of peak prices that people paid in COVID. So they have more equity in their existing product, which is encouraging in terms of the ability to trade up. But yes, I think we've got a couple of tailwinds there.
與新冠疫情期間人們支付的某些高峰價格相比,交易價格正開始恢復正常。因此,他們在現有產品中擁有更多權益,這對他們升級換代來說是一個令人鼓舞的消息。不過,是的,我認為我們在這方面確實有一些有利因素。
Operator
Operator
Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.
Xian Siew,法國巴黎銀行。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Maybe given the competitive advantage of Mercury on the tariff front versus maybe the Japanese OEMs and the recent momentum, I mean, how are you thinking about market share opportunities for '26? What's kind of baked into expectations for that for Propulsion?
考慮到 Mercury 在關稅方面相對於日本 OEM 廠商的競爭優勢以及最近的發展勢頭,您認為 Mercury 在 2026 年的市場份額機會如何?對於推進系統而言,人們普遍預期會有哪些內容?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Xian, I think it's difficult to know at the moment. The reality is we think we have a long-term structural advantage here. But in terms of what happens in the market, it depends on what the pricing policy to some extent of the competitors, turns out to be how much pain they're willing to take on margins. We have a pretty dynamic situation with the yen as well.
西安,我覺得現在很難說。事實上,我們認為我們在這裡擁有長期的結構性優勢。但就市場走向而言,這取決於競爭對手的定價策略,在某種程度上,也取決於他們願意在利潤率方面承受多大的損失。日圓的走勢也相當不穩定。
We did see that, obviously, they took some pain on margins in the back half of 2025. So I think we will see a steady march on share, So I think we will see a steady march on share. I do think that will be supercharged in certain segments as we begin to introduce new products. We have a very exciting product plan at the moment, I think. And so I think we see selective gain. Some of that is targeted at what we've come to refer to as ultra-high horsepower.
顯然,我們看到他們在 2025 年下半年的利潤率受到了一定影響。所以我認為我們會看到市場份額穩步增長,所以我認為我們會看到市場份額穩步增長。我認為隨著我們開始推出新產品,某些領域的成長速度將會加快。我認為,我們目前有一個非常令人興奮的產品計劃。所以我認為我們看到的是選擇性獲利。其中一些針對的是我們所稱的超高馬力。
Some of it is more refresh and upgrade to more mid-horsepower engines as well, which, although not quite as glamorous, do represent high volume for us. So yes, we have a very solid product plan, a lot of products coming to market over the next couple of years. And then I think we'll see this steady march as OEMs continue to move towards us and, in some cases, become exclusive.
其中一些是對中等馬力引擎的更新和升級,雖然這些引擎不如其他引擎那麼引人注目,但它們對我們來說銷量很高。是的,我們有一個非常完善的產品計劃,未來幾年將有許多產品推向市場。我認為,隨著原始設備製造商 (OEM) 繼續向我們靠攏,並在某些情況下成為獨家供應商,我們將看到這種穩定發展。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
The other factor -- yes, just real quick. The other factor, we've had really strong wholesale share here the last several months. And so that's a good prediction really of where we think the '26 share will continue to grow.
另一個因素——是的,簡單說一下。另一個因素是,過去幾個月我們的批發市佔率一直非常強勁。所以,這確實很好地預測了我們認為 2026 年的份額將繼續增長的方向。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Makes sense. And then maybe just as a follow-up, '26 guidance, I think, implies something like 20% incremental margins, which is inclusive of, I guess, the incremental tariffs. So underlying, if we kind of set that aside, quite strong incremental margins. I guess how do you think about the potential for incremental margins in the flow-through as you kind of continue to recover from here?
有道理。然後,作為後續補充,我認為,2026 年的業績指引意味著大約 20% 的利潤率成長,這其中應該包含了新增關稅。所以,如果我們把這些因素放在一邊,那麼潛在的增量利潤率就相當強勁。我想問,隨著業務逐漸復甦,您如何看待流通環節利潤成長的潛力?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, you're exactly right. Your math is correct. So you know nothing's really changed we even in a tariff impact environment we think we can deliver north of 20% incrementals. That's obviously going to be a little bit higher in Propulsion and P&A and pretty strong in Navaco as well.
是的,你說得完全正確。你的計算是正確的。所以你知道,實際上什麼都沒變,即使在關稅影響的環境下,我們認為我們也能實現超過 20% 的增量。很明顯,推進系統和 P&A 的佔比會略高一些,Navaco 的佔比也會相當高。
I mean, we haven't talked a lot about Navico, but what a great fourth quarter and really year that Navico had, here in '25 and to start '26 just because their product and variable margins are the highest in the company. So, and the vocal groups taking all the right steps to take costs out and deliver on their margin targets as well.
我的意思是,我們還沒有過多地談論 Navico,但是 Navico 在 2025 年第四季度以及 2026 年初的表現非常出色,因為他們的產品和可變利潤率是公司中最高的。因此,那些積極發聲的團體也採取了所有正確的措施來降低成本,並實現了他們的利潤目標。
So. North of 20% is always the goal, but as you've seen in past years with volume comes some supercharged, incrementals, and we think that, '26 and beyond is going to be a period where we have more volume and you're going to see things improve and increase.
所以。20% 以上的成長始終是我們的目標,但正如你過去幾年所看到的,銷量成長會帶來一些強勁的、漸進式的成長,我們認為,2026 年及以後我們將迎來銷量成長的時期,你會看到情況有所改善和增長。
Operator
Operator
Jamie Katz, Morningstar.
Jamie Katz,晨星公司。
Jaime Katz - Analyst
Jaime Katz - Analyst
I just want to stay on that margin topic. And I think in our model at least, absorption isn't really benefiting the P&L as much as we thought it would be, right? You're looking at 7.5% to 8% operating margins in the year ahead. So you guys talk about, I guess, outside of tariffs, what's the biggest sort of cost headwind holding that adjusted operating margin back and then maybe where the top opportunity for upside resides in the cost structure?
我只想繼續討論利潤率這個主題。而且我認為至少在我們的模型中,吸收對損益表的益處並沒有我們想像的那麼大,對吧?預計未來一年的營業利益率將在7.5%至8%之間。所以你們討論的是,除了關稅之外,阻礙調整後營業利潤率的最大成本阻力是什麼?以及成本結構中最大的成長機會可能在哪裡?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Is really the accelerated spending on investments necessary to grow the top line. We believe that we're in a spot where the industry is probably primed to grow and increase, and we want to be there with the right products to customers. And so you've seen on the bridge that we showed kind of a big chunk of OpEx increase. I mean most of that is strategic investment in products in growth initiatives that will support us moving forward, inclusive of things like sales and marketing, IT and necessary systems that will enable us to service our customers even better.
真的有必要加快投資支出來提高營收嗎?我們相信,我們正處於一個行業可能即將成長和擴張的階段,我們希望能夠為客戶提供合適的產品。所以,正如您在橋上看到的,我們展示了營運支出大幅成長的情況。我的意思是,其中大部分是對產品和成長計劃的策略性投資,這些投資將支持我們向前發展,包括銷售和行銷、IT 以及必要的系統,這將使我們能夠更好地服務我們的客戶。
So the good news is there's no year-over-year wonkiness with comp, right, because that will be kind of a zero factor year-over-year. So think of it really as just growth initiative spending, which we're happy to do to continue to drive our market share and our leading products.
所以好消息是,比較方面不會出現同比波動,對吧,因為年比波動將是一個零因素。所以,你可以把它看作是成長計畫支出,我們很樂意這樣做,以繼續推動我們的市場份額和領先產品的發展。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes, Jaime, I'll just add to that. I think -- I mean, obviously, as a management team in the business, we're thinking about '26, but we're also thinking about '27, '28, and how do we grow the business long term. We think that we are at an inflection point at the moment. And so we took the decision to accelerate investment in certain areas that we think are going to grow us not just in '26, but well beyond. And that is new products, to some extent, AI.
是的,傑米,我再補充一點。我認為——我的意思是,很顯然,作為公司的管理團隊,我們不僅要考慮 2026 年,還要考慮 2027 年、2028 年,以及如何實現業務的長期成長。我們認為目前正處於一個轉捩點。因此,我們決定加快對某些領域的投資,我們認為這些領域不僅會在 2026 年,而且會在更遠的未來推動我們的發展。而這在某種程度上也包括新產品和人工智慧。
And I don't throw that out there lightly. I know it's a very kind of topic -- topic of the year. But AI can be a big influence on efficiences in our business and also strongly influence and improve our kind of products and overall go-to-market.
我並非輕易說出這樣的話。我知道這是一個非常熱門的話題——年度熱門話題。但人工智慧可以大大提高我們業務的效率,並對我們的產品類型和整體市場推廣產生重大影響和改進。
So there's just some spending. But as you know, we offset a lot of that by really laser-focused on operating efficiency. You know about the footprint reduction actions that we're taking software. So we're very balanced. But I think the strong cash flow and through-cycle performance that we have allows us to make investments maybe ahead of where other people might be able to make them.
所以只是有一些支出。但正如您所知,我們透過高度重視營運效率來抵消許多損失。您知道我們正在採取哪些措施來減少軟體的資源佔用。所以我們非常均衡。但我認為,我們強勁的現金流和貫穿整個經濟週期的良好表現,使我們能夠比其他人更早進行投資。
And this is not just about growth in '26. It's about long-term growth, medium-term growth as well. And we think we are well positioned to achieve that.
這不僅僅關乎 2026 年的成長。這關乎長期成長,也關乎中期成長。我們認為我們已做好充分準備來實現這一目標。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to hand the floor back over to Dave for any closing remarks.
謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把發言權交還給戴夫,讓他做最後的總結發言。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you all for the great questions as usual. This is another very encouraging quarter for us with improving retail, revenue up across all our businesses and global regions, very solid earnings and continued exceptional free cash flow generation. Full year revenue being up over prior year for the first time in three years was very nice, a real, I think, a tangible signal of an inflection point. Early 2026 retail is strong and wholesale orders are also strong from our dealers.
是的。感謝大家一如既往提出的精彩問題。對我們來說,這又是一個非常令人鼓舞的季度,零售業務有所改善,所有業務和全球地區的收入均有所增長,盈利非常穩健,並且自由現金流持續表現優異。三年來首次實現全年營收超過上年,這非常好,我認為這是一個非常切實的訊號,標誌著一個轉捩點的到來。2026年初零售市場表現強勁,經銷商的批發訂單也十分強勁。
So that's really encouraging. We continue though to be laser-focused, as we mentioned, on our structural cost reduction actions, but we are and have accelerated some investments in new products and technology, notably in Propulsion.
這真是令人鼓舞。不過,正如我們之前提到的,我們將繼續專注於結構性成本削減措施,但我們正在並已經加快對新產品和新技術的投資,尤其是在推進系統方面。
We tend to focus on big picture things, but don't overlook the fact that we won the two big awards in the European boat shows early this year. European Powerboat of the Year, Motorboat of the Year. We don't just win because of scale and technology. We win because we have the best products. And we will continue to do that.
我們往往更關注大局,但不要忽視我們今年早些時候在歐洲遊艇展上贏得兩項大獎的事實。歐洲年度動力艇,年度摩托艇。我們取得勝利不僅僅是因為規模和技術。我們之所以能贏,是因為我們擁有最好的產品。我們將繼續這樣做。
And on that note, we'll be introducing quite a few new products at the Miami Boat Show. So I'm excited about that. Please join us if you can. We will be launching and debuting more new products across the businesses than I can remember for quite some time. And I look forward to seeing many of you at that investor and analyst event on February 12. Please make the time. We'd love to see you. Thank you.
說到這裡,我們將在邁阿密遊艇展上推出許多新產品。所以我對此感到很興奮。如果可以,請加入我們。我們將推出和推出比我記憶中短時間內多得多的新產品,涵蓋各個業務領域。我期待在2月12日的投資者和分析師活動上見到各位。請抽出時間。我們很想見到你。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與。