使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Brunswick Corporation's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). Today's meeting will be recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
各位早安,歡迎參加Brunswick Corporation 2026年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)。今天的會議將被錄音。如您有任何異議,請於此時中斷連線。
I would now like to introduce Stephen Weiland, Senior Vice President and Deputy CFO, Brunswick Corporation.
現在我想介紹Brunswick Corporation資深副總裁暨副財務長Stephen Weiland。
Stephen Weiland - Senior Vice President and Deputy CFO
Stephen Weiland - Senior Vice President and Deputy CFO
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are David Foulkes, Brunswick's Chairman and CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, Brunswick's CFO. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations. For details on the factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release.
各位早安,感謝各位加入。今天早上的電話會議與我一同出席的有Brunswick董事長兼執行長David Foulkes,以及Brunswick財務長Ryan Gwillim。在開始我們的準備發言之前,我想提醒各位,本次電話會議中的評論將包含若干關於未來結果的前瞻性陳述。請注意,我們的實際結果可能與這些預期存在重大差異。關於需考量的因素詳情,請參閱我們近期的SEC申報文件以及今日的新聞稿。
All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com. During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix to this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results.
上述所有文件皆可於我們的網站brunswick.com取得。在簡報過程中,我們將引用若干非GAAP財務資訊。GAAP與非GAAP財務衡量指標之調節表,已提供於本簡報附錄,以及隨今日結果一併提供之未經審計合併財務報表的調節章節中。
I will now turn the call over to Dave.
接下來我將把電話會議交給Dave。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Steve. We delivered an excellent start to the year, building on the market recovery in the second half of 2025, with first quarter results significantly ahead of expectations despite the dynamic geopolitical and tariff environment.
謝謝你,Steve。我們在今年取得了極佳的開局,延續2025年下半年市場復甦的動能;儘管地緣政治與關稅環境多變,第一季業績仍顯著優於預期。
Global and US boat retail were approximately flat on a unit basis compared to the relatively strong first quarter of last year and premium sales were up. Q1 was the third consecutive quarter of improved relative retail performance, building confidence in our retail forecast for the year as we move into the core selling season in our largest markets. Strong OEM order patterns drove gains for Mercury Marine and Navico Group, while solid boating participation benefited our recurring revenue, parts and accessories, aftermarket and subscription voting businesses.
全球與美國的船艇零售量(以台數計)相較去年相對強勁的第一季約持平,而高端產品銷售上升。第一季是連續第三個季度零售表現相對改善,隨著我們在最大市場進入核心銷售季,這也提升了我們對全年零售預測的信心。強勁的OEM訂單型態帶動Mercury Marine與Navico Group的成長;同時,穩健的航海參與度也有利於我們的經常性收入、零件與配件、售後市場以及訂閱式投票業務。
From an inventory perspective, both an engine pipelines remain healthy, lean and well aligned with demand. Global boat pipelines are down approximately 2,000 units versus last year and flat sequentially versus the end of 2025, reflecting our deliberate actions to closely match wholesale with retail.
從庫存角度來看,無論是船艇或引擎的通路庫存(pipeline)仍維持健康、精實,且與需求高度一致。全球船艇通路庫存較去年減少約2,000台,且相較2025年底按季持平,反映我們刻意採取行動,使批發出貨更緊密地與零售需求相匹配。
Our overall net sales of $1.4 billion increased 13% year-over-year with growth across all segments driven by continued market share gains, strong OEM demand, accelerated new product and technology introductions and disciplined operational execution across the enterprise.
我們整體淨銷售額為14億美元,年增13%,各事業部皆成長,主要受惠於持續的市占提升、強勁的OEM需求、加速的新產品與技術導入,以及全企業範圍內嚴謹的營運執行。
Our adjusted earnings per share of $0.70 increased 25% versus last year, with strong operating leverage from higher sales, more than offsetting the impacts of the tariffs implemented after the first quarter of last year. We continue to execute our disciplined capital allocation strategy, repurchasing $20 million of shares year-to-date and delivered our 14th consecutive annual dividend increase, underscoring our commitment to returning capital to shareholders while maintaining a strong balance sheet.
我們調整後每股盈餘為0.70美元,較去年成長25%;銷售提升帶來的強勁營運槓桿,足以抵銷去年第一季之後實施的關稅影響。我們持續執行嚴謹的資本配置策略,今年迄今已回購2,000萬美元股票,並完成連續第14年的年度股利調升,彰顯我們在維持強健資產負債表的同時,致力於回饋股東的承諾。
In our core US market, product demand and boating participation remain relatively unaffected by the conflict in the Middle East, although the health of the value consumer remains a focus. We have a relatively small direct exposure to Middle East markets, but are monitoring trends in Australia and New Zealand and other more exposed markets as oil supply tightens.
在我們核心的美國市場,產品需求與航海參與度仍相對未受中東衝突影響,但我們仍關注價格敏感型消費者的健康狀況。我們對中東市場的直接曝險相對較小,但隨著石油供應趨緊,我們正監測澳洲、紐西蘭及其他曝險較高市場的趨勢。
Our high exposure to the most insulated markets, particularly the US and Canada, which account for more than 70% of total sales, balanced portfolio, lean channel inventories, and operational discipline position us strongly to effectively navigate the volatility.
我們對最具抗波動性的市場(尤其是美國與加拿大)曝險度高,兩者合計占總銷售額逾70%;再加上均衡的產品組合、精實的通路庫存與嚴謹的營運紀律,使我們具備強而有力的定位,能有效因應波動。
Turning to segment performance, for the third consecutive quarter, all segments delivered year-over-year sales growth. Operating margin expanded across the portfolio, except for Propulsion, which absorbed the majority of first quarter incremental tariffs. The strong performance reflected improving retail and wholesale trends, sustained boater participation, and disciplined operational execution across the organization.
接著談各事業部表現:連續第三個季度,所有事業部皆實現年對年銷售成長。除推進(Propulsion)事業部因承擔第一季新增關稅的大部分而例外外,整體投資組合的營業利益率皆擴張。此一強勁表現反映零售與批發趨勢改善、航海參與度維持,以及全組織嚴謹的營運執行。
Propulsion sales increased significantly versus last year with Mercury's global and US outboard unit orders increasing more than 15% over the prior year period and record Mercury outboard share at recent boat shows, including 60% overall and 80% on the water share at Miami and 70% share at Palm Beach signaling the potential for further high horsepower share gains.
推進事業部銷售額較去年大幅成長,Mercury全球與美國舷外機(outboard)訂單台數較去年同期增加逾15%;且在近期船展中,Mercury舷外機市占創新高,包括邁阿密船展整體60%與水上展示80%的市占,以及棕櫚灘船展70%的市占,顯示未來高馬力產品市占仍有進一步提升的潛力。
Overall, R12 share remained steady at 47%, with year-to-date retail share up 200 basis points along with strong wholesale share gains. Our accelerated investments in future high horsepower outboard platforms and all new midrange high-volume models will reinforce our long-term competitive advantage. Healthy boater participation and continued distribution gains drove higher sales and margin year over year in our Engine P&A business with Land and See again increasing US distribution share by 150 basis points.
整體而言,R12市占維持在47%,今年迄今零售市占提升200個基點,並伴隨強勁的批發市占增長。我們加速投資於未來高馬力舷外機平台,以及全新中階高銷量機型,將強化我們長期的競爭優勢。健康的航海參與度與持續的通路拓展,帶動我們引擎零件與配件(Engine P&A)業務年對年銷售與毛利提升,其中Land and Sea再次將美國通路市占提高150個基點。
Navico Group delivered revenue growth and margin improvement, supported by new product launches and operational improvement actions. We introduced the Simrad NSO 4 and B&G Zeus SRX multi-function displays at the Miami Boat Show; received an innovation award for the Lowrance Active Target 2XL fish finder; and continue to execute Simrad AutoCaptain implementation plans with a range of OEM customers.
Navico Group實現營收成長與利潤率改善,受新產品上市與營運改善措施支撐。我們在邁阿密船展推出Simrad NSO 4與B&G Zeus SRX多功能顯示器;Lowrance Active Target 2XL探魚器獲得創新獎;並持續與多家OEM客戶推進Simrad AutoCaptain的導入計畫。
Finally, our Boat Group segment grew sales and margin as wholesale shipments aligned with stable retail. Boat show revenue increased year over year despite weather impacts of some upper Midwest and Northern market events. At the Palm Beach premium, saltwater show, Boston Whaler and Sea Ray delivered high unit sales and a substantial 40% revenue increase versus last year. Freedom Boat Club added four new locations in the quarter, increased member trips by 20%, improved same-store sales by 10%; and, earlier this month, completed the acquisition of the largest remaining franchise club in the Freedom network, which serves the Boston and Cape Cod region.
最後,Boat Group事業部在批發出貨與穩定零售相匹配的情況下,銷售與利潤率皆成長。儘管上中西部與北部市場部分活動受天候影響,船展營收仍年對年增加。在棕櫚灘高端鹽水船展中,Boston Whaler與Sea Ray帶動高台數銷售,營收較去年大幅成長40%。Freedom Boat Club本季新增四個據點,會員出航次數增加20%,同店銷售提升10%;並於本月稍早完成收購Freedom網絡中最大、尚未收購的加盟俱樂部,該俱樂部服務波士頓與科德角地區。
Moving on to external conditions. Rate cuts enacted late in 2025 are a continuing tailwind for retail and floorplan financing as we enter the peak selling season. While expectations for incremental rate relief have moderated, our forecast does not rely on additional cuts. Fuel prices have risen recently, due to geopolitical events, but generally remain within historical bounds, and we are not experiencing any clearly discernible direct impact on retail or OEM demand or on boating participation in our largest markets.
接著談外部環境。2025年底實施的降息,持續為零售與庫存融資(floorplan financing)帶來順風,正值我們進入銷售旺季。雖然市場對進一步降息的預期已趨於保守,但我們的預測並不依賴額外降息。近期因地緣政治事件燃油價格上升,但整體仍在歷史區間內;在我們最大市場中,我們未觀察到對零售或OEM需求、或對航海參與度有任何清楚可辨識的直接影響。
The tariff environment remains dynamic, and Ryan will discuss the specific impact to our guidance later on the call. The tariff on Mercury Marine's Japanese competitors remains in place representing a potential structural advantage for Brunswick. Refunds related to previously paid, IEEPA tariffs are not yet factored into our outlook.
關稅環境仍具動態性,Ryan稍後將在電話會議中說明其對我們財測的具體影響。針對Mercury Marine日本競爭對手的關稅仍然有效,這可能為Brunswick帶來結構性優勢。與先前已支付之IEEPA關稅相關的退款,目前尚未納入我們的展望。
Current dealer sentiment has improved overall, but still cautious, supported by healthy and fresh inventories and lower pre-owned boat supply, which supports new boat demand. While incentives remain elevated versus historical norms, they improved approximately 100 basis points last year, and we are forecasting further modest improvement in 2026.
目前經銷商情緒整體有所改善,但仍偏謹慎;健康且較新的庫存,以及較低的二手船供給,支撐了新船需求。雖然促銷激勵仍高於歷史常態,但去年已改善約100個基點,我們預期2026年將再出現溫和改善。
Looking now at industry retail performance. The latest SSI data for March shows US industry main Powerboat retail down approximately 5% year-to-date. Against this backdrop, SSI reported that Brunswick outperformed the industry.
再看產業零售表現。最新SSI 3月數據顯示,美國產業主要動力船(Powerboat)零售今年迄今約下滑5%。在此背景下,SSI指出Brunswick的表現優於產業。
Our global and US internal retail unit sales were approximately flat year over year compared with the relatively strong first quarter of 2025 prior to the impact of tariffs with premium and core again outperforming value.
我們全球與美國內部統計的零售台數年對年約持平,係與2025年第一季(關稅影響前)相對強勁的基期相比;其中高端與核心產品再次優於價值型產品。
From a pipeline standpoint, conditions remain very healthy. Global Boat pipelines are down approximately 2,000 units versus last year, but flat sequentially versus the fourth quarter and benefiting from wholesale to retail alignment consistent with our plan. In addition, our global boat order backlog at the end of the first quarter represented 71% of our second quarter wholesale forecast, up 6 percentage points from last year, providing improved near-term visibility.
從通路庫存角度來看,狀況仍非常健康。全球船艇通路庫存較去年減少約2,000台,但相較第四季按季持平,並受惠於批發與零售依計畫對齊。此外,第一季末我們全球船艇訂單積壓(backlog)相當於第二季批發預測的71%,較去年提高6個百分點,提升了短期能見度。
Turning to engines. US outboard engine industry grew 6% in the first quarter with Mercury retail units of approximately 11%. With a similar dynamic to boats, US outboard pipelines were down approximately 10% versus last year, but flat sequentially versus the fourth quarter reflecting wholesale to retail matching.
再看引擎。美國舷外機產業第一季成長6%,而Mercury零售台數約成長11%。與船艇類似,美國舷外機通路庫存較去年下降約10%,但相較第四季按季持平,反映批發與零售的匹配。
Overall, the combination of sustained share gains, disciplined pipeline management, and improving wholesale to retail alignment, gives us confidence in our outlook for 2026 and supports our expectation for a flat to improving market as we enter the peak boating season.
整體而言,持續的市占提升、嚴謹的通路庫存管理,以及批發與零售對齊的改善,使我們對2026年的展望更具信心,並支持我們在進入航海旺季之際,對市場持平至改善的預期。
Finally, I want to address the impacts of recent oil price volatility, which has been a frequent topic in recent investor discussions. From the boat buyer or boater perspective, historically, there has not been a correlation between oil price spikes and boat sales or boating participation.
最後,我想回應近期油價波動的影響,這一直是近期投資人討論中的常見主題。從購船者或航海者的角度來看,歷史上油價飆升與船艇銷售或航海參與度之間並不存在相關性。
A primary driver of this low correlation is that fuel costs represent a relatively small portion of total boat ownership expense because on an annual basis, the typical recreational only uses about 20% to 30% of the fuel of a comparable passenger vehicle.
造成這種低相關性的主要原因之一,是燃料成本在船艇總持有成本中所占比重相對較小,因為以年度計算,典型的休閒用途船艇僅使用約相當於同級乘用車燃料用量的 20% 至 30%。
From a boat group perspective, exposure to oil-linked materials is relatively small, representing a combined 2% of total cost of goods sold and with the relevant materials being under long-term supply agreements. Our scale and sophistication also enable hedging programs for other key commodities, such as aluminum, further reducing exposure to spot-price volatility. However, aluminum prices do remain elevated. Diesel prices have, however, impacted boats and other transportation costs, and we have implemented some surcharges.
從船艇事業群的角度來看,與原油連動的材料曝險相對較小,合計僅占銷貨成本總額的 2%,且相關材料均在長期供應協議之下。我們的規模與成熟度也使我們能對其他關鍵大宗商品(例如鋁)進行避險計畫,進一步降低對現貨價格波動的曝險。然而,鋁價仍維持在高檔。柴油價格確實影響了船艇及其他運輸成本,我們也已實施部分附加費。
I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to discuss our first quarter financial performance and updated guidance.
接下來我把電話交給 Ryan,請他說明我們第一季的財務表現與更新後的財測指引。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Thank you, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's outstanding first quarter performance came in ahead of expectations with strong sales and earnings growth versus the first quarter of last year. On a consolidated basis, sales were up 13%, reflecting improved wholesale and retail trends, continued market share gains in propulsion and several boat categories, strong OEM demand for propulsion components and electronics, favorable changes in foreign currency exchange rates, pricing actions in each segment commencing in the second half of 2025, and solid boating participation driving aftermarket performance.
謝謝你,Dave,各位早安。Brunswick 第一季的優異表現超出預期,銷售與獲利相較去年第一季均強勁成長。以合併基礎計,銷售額成長 13%,反映批發與零售趨勢改善、在推進系統與多個船艇品類持續提升市占、推進零組件與電子產品的 OEM 需求強勁、有利的外匯匯率變動、各事業部自 2025 年下半年起採取的定價措施,以及穩健的航海參與度帶動售後市場表現。
Adjusted operating earnings were up 15%, supported by the increased sales, favorable mix, improved absorption, and disciplined cost management more than offsetting the impact of incremental tariffs implemented after the first quarter of last year. Absent the year-over-year enterprise impact from incremental tariffs, adjusted operating leverage was approaching 30%, driving adjusted EPS of $0.70 for the quarter.
調整後營業利益成長 15%,受惠於銷售增加、有利的產品組合、吸收率改善與嚴謹的成本管理,足以抵銷去年第一季之後新增關稅的影響。若排除新增關稅對企業的年對年影響,調整後營業槓桿接近 30%,帶動本季調整後 EPS 為 0.70 美元。
Free cash flow was negative in the first quarter, consistent with seasonal and historical patterns, reflecting higher production levels and working capital investment ahead of the peak selling season. Compared to the prior year, free cash flow was down solely due to reinstated variable compensation paid in the quarter.
第一季自由現金流為負,符合季節性與歷史型態,反映在銷售旺季前提高產量與投入營運資金。與去年相比,自由現金流下降僅因本季支付了恢復的變動薪酬。
Moving to our segments. Propulsion delivered a very strong start to the year, with sales increasing 17% versus the prior year, driven by an improved market, global share gains, and strong OEM demand heading into the selling season.
接著看各事業部。推進系統(Propulsion)在年初表現非常強勁,銷售額較去年成長 17%,主要由市場改善、全球市占提升,以及進入銷售季前 OEM 需求強勁所帶動。
Adjusted operating earnings declined year over year, solely due to the planned accelerated investments in product development and incremental tariff impact, which slightly more than offset the benefits of higher sales and improved absorption. Absent the incremental tariffs, pro forma adjusted operating leverage for propulsion was north of 20% in the quarter, even after accounting for the high single-digit million dollars of additional product development spend in the quarter.
調整後營業利益年對年下滑,僅因計畫性加速投入產品開發以及新增關稅影響,這些因素略高於銷售增加與吸收率改善所帶來的效益。若排除新增關稅,推進系統本季的備考(pro forma)調整後營業槓桿將超過 20%,即使已納入本季額外投入的產品開發費用(約數百萬美元、屬高個位數百萬)。
Moving to engine parts and accessories. This segment once again delivered growth from its aftermarket high-margin recurring revenue portfolio, with sales up 14% versus the prior year with significant growth across both products and distribution. Healthy early season boating participation, even with the recent increase in fuel prices and continued market share gains in our global distribution business, drove growth in the quarter. The higher sales and robust adjusted operating leverage at 27% and led to a 24% increase in adjusted operating earnings with a 140 basis point improvement in adjusted operating margin.
接著是引擎零件與配件。該事業部再次受惠於售後市場高毛利、經常性收入組合帶來的成長,銷售額較去年成長 14%,產品與通路皆有顯著成長。即便近期燃油價格上升,旺季初期的航海參與度仍然健康,加上我們全球通路業務持續提升市占,帶動本季成長。較高的銷售與 27% 的強勁調整後營業槓桿,帶動調整後營業利益成長 24%,調整後營業利益率提升 140 個基點。
Navico Group had another great quarter, transitioning from stability to growth with sales up 7% over prior year and up across all business lines, supported by improving OEM demand, steady aftermarket performance, and operational efficiency.
Navico Group 本季也再度繳出亮眼成績,從穩定走向成長,銷售額較去年成長 7%,且各業務線均成長,受惠於 OEM 需求改善、售後市場表現穩健與營運效率提升。
More importantly, adjusted operating earnings increased 64% with adjusted operating margin expanding 280 basis points, reflecting the early benefits of product portfolio optimization, operational improvements, and disciplined cost control actions, which more than offset incremental tariffs. We often discuss the inherent operating leverage in this high gross margin business, so it's fantastic to see 47% adjusted operating leverage in the quarter as our actions bear fruit.
更重要的是,調整後營業利益成長 64%,調整後營業利益率擴張 280 個基點,反映產品組合優化、營運改善與嚴格成本控管的早期成效,足以抵銷新增關稅。我們常談到這個高毛利業務的內在營業槓桿,因此很高興看到本季調整後營業槓桿達 47%,顯示我們的措施正在開花結果。
We continue to see encouraging traction from recent product launches, including Simrad NSO 4 and B&G Zeus SRX, and recognition for innovation with Lowrance Active Target 2XL. While there is still work ahead, the results this quarter reinforce our confidence that Navico Group is on a sustainable path towards improved profitability.
我們持續看到近期新品上市帶來令人鼓舞的動能,包括 Simrad NSO 4 與 B&G Zeus SRX,以及 Lowrance Active Target 2XL 獲得創新肯定。雖然仍有工作要做,但本季成果強化了我們的信心:Navico Group 正走在可持續改善獲利能力的道路上。
Finally, our Boat segment also had a strong quarter with sales up 6% over prior year, driven by higher wholesale shipments matching stabilized retail conditions, favorable mix, and continued momentum in the business acceleration portfolio. Boat growth was led by our aluminum fish and pontoon brands while Freedom Boat Club continued to deliver strong increases in members, trips, and locations, as mentioned earlier.
最後,我們的船艇(Boat)事業部本季同樣表現強勁,銷售額較去年成長 6%,主要由批發出貨增加以匹配趨於穩定的零售狀況、有利的產品組合,以及業務加速組合(business acceleration portfolio)持續動能所帶動。船艇成長由我們的鋁製釣魚船與浮筒船(pontoon)品牌領軍;如先前所述,Freedom Boat Club 也持續在會員數、出航次數與據點數上繳出強勁增長。
Adjusted operating earnings increased 63% and adjusted operating margin expanded 130 basis points, reflecting healthy adjusted operating leverage of 25%, primarily driven by the higher sales and favorable mix. Dealer pipelines remain very lean with mostly current model year product while positioning the business heading into the prime retail season.
調整後營業利益成長 63%,調整後營業利益率擴張 130 個基點,反映 25% 的健康調整後營業槓桿,主要由較高的銷售與有利的產品組合所驅動。經銷商管道庫存仍非常精實,主要為當年度車型產品,同時也讓業務在進入零售旺季前保持良好態勢。
Lastly, I will discuss our updated outlook for 2026. As we enter the core retail selling season in the US, we are encouraged by the stable market conditions and the strength of our first quarter performance. Steady dealer and customer sentiment, exceptionally healthy and lean pipelines, disciplined wholesale to retail alignment, and sustained boating participation are sources of confidence as we move through the remainder of 2026.
最後,我將說明我們更新後的 2026 年展望。隨著我們進入美國核心零售銷售季,我們對穩定的市場狀況與第一季表現的強勁感到鼓舞。穩健的經銷商與客戶信心、異常健康且精實的管道、嚴謹的批發與零售對齊,以及持續的航海參與度,都是我們在 2026 年剩餘期間持續前進的信心來源。
However, while direct sales and operational impacts remain limited, heightened geopolitical volatility has introduced new uncertainties. Earlier, Dave discussed the muted impact to date caused by fluctuations in interest rates and fuel prices, but we remain cognizant of the potential impact on the health of our consumer, especially outside the US from a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.
然而,儘管直接銷售與營運影響仍然有限,升高的地緣政治波動帶來新的不確定性。先前 Dave 談到利率與燃油價格波動迄今影響有限,但我們仍留意其對消費者健康狀況的潛在影響,尤其是在美國以外地區,若中東衝突延長,可能帶來衝擊。
Finally, the tariff environment remains dynamic. And during the quarter, IEEPA tariffs were repealed and replaced a Section 122, and more recently, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were amended. The net impact of these changes is positive, and we now believe our full year incremental net tariff impact will ultimately land near the lower end of our original $35 million to $45 million estimate shared at the beginning of the year. Also, as, Dave mentioned, refunds related to previously paid IEEPA tariffs are not yet factored into our outlook or recognized in our financial statements.
最後,關稅環境仍在動態變化。本季期間,IEEPA 關稅被撤銷並由《第 122 條》取代;而近期《第 232 條》對鋼與鋁的關稅也已修訂。這些變動的淨影響為正面,我們目前認為全年新增淨關稅影響最終將落在年初所分享之 3,500 萬至 4,500 萬美元估計區間的低端。此外,如 Dave 所提,先前已支付之 IEEPA 關稅相關退款目前尚未納入我們的展望,也尚未在財務報表中認列。
The result is materially unchanged guidance on the sales, margin, and free cash flow lines, but an increase to adjusted EPS guidance to $4 to $4.50 reflecting the lower full year expected incremental net tariff impacts I just discussed as well as the first quarter overdrive while also factoring in some cautiousness given the current dynamic macroeconomic environment.
因此,我們在銷售、毛利率與自由現金流等指引上基本維持不變,但將調整後 EPS 指引上調至 4.00 至 4.50 美元,反映我剛提到的全年預期新增淨關稅影響降低,以及第一季表現超前,同時也在目前動態的總體經濟環境下納入一定程度的審慎考量。
Overall, we believe our guidance reflects confidence in our operating plan, the resilience of our portfolio, and our ability to generate strong financial performance and a flat to slightly up retail environment.
整體而言,我們認為本次指引反映了我們對營運計畫的信心、產品組合的韌性,以及在零售環境持平至小幅成長的情境下,仍能創造強勁財務表現的能力。
I'll now pass it over to Dave for concluding remarks.
接下來我把時間交回 Dave 作結語。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Ryan. I want to highlight some exciting recent developments in one of our fastest-growing businesses, Freedom Boat Club. As you know, Freedom is a profitable, high-growth recurring revenue business but continues to expand boating participation by making boating more accessible to a broader demographic.
謝謝,Ryan。我想強調我們成長最快的業務之一——Freedom Boat Club——近期一些令人振奮的進展。如各位所知,Freedom 是一個獲利且高成長的經常性收入業務,同時也透過讓更多族群更容易接觸航海活動,持續擴大航海參與度。
The model drives extensive synergy sales across the Brunswick portfolio, including through the purchase of Brunswick Boats Mercury Marine engines, parts and accessories, and Navico Group products resulting in approximately $300 million of enterprise synergies since the 2019 acquisition.
該模式在 Brunswick 產品組合中帶動廣泛的協同銷售,包括採購 Brunswick Boats、Mercury Marine 引擎、零件與配件,以及 Navico Group 產品,自 2019 年收購以來已帶來約 3 億美元的企業協同效益。
Since the acquisition, we've also grown the location count from 170 locations to 446 global, corporate-owned and franchise locations, adding four more locations in the quarter. Last year, Freedom members made 640,000 trips in the US.
自收購以來,我們也將據點數從 170 個成長至全球 446 個(含公司自營與加盟)據點,本季再新增 4 個據點。去年,Freedom 會員在美國共進行了 64 萬次出航。
Earlier this month, we announced the acquisition of the largest remaining franchise club in the Freedom network, serving the Greater Boston and Cape Cod region. This acquisition adds 21 locations for our corporate-owned total as well as a strategic maintenance operations center that will drive synergies with other nearby corporate locations. It is also day-one accretive to earnings.
本月稍早,我們宣布收購 Freedom 網絡中仍存的最大加盟俱樂部,服務大波士頓與科德角地區。此收購為我們的公司自營據點總數新增 21 個據點,並新增一個具策略性的維修營運中心,將與附近其他公司自營據點帶來協同效益。同時,該交易自第一天起即可增厚盈餘。
Innovative new products and advanced technologies are central to Brunswick's long-term value creation, differentiation, and share gain strategy. And during the quarter, we introduced many exciting new products across our portfolio, including the all-new Sea Ray SLX 360 and Boston Whaler Outrage 330 and 290 models with Mercury Power and Navico Group Electronics; Simrad's NSO 4 multifunction display with NEON Android operating system; Mercury's advanced keyless engine start system and innovative Boost over-the-air outboard performance upgrade; and Fliteboard's RACE ultra-high-performance model. All these products illustrate our commitment constantly pushing the boundaries of marine innovation.
創新產品與先進技術是 Brunswick 長期價值創造、差異化與提升市占策略的核心。本季我們在產品組合中推出多項令人振奮的新產品,包括全新 Sea Ray SLX 360,以及搭載 Mercury 動力與 Navico Group 電子設備的 Boston Whaler Outrage 330 與 290 型號;Simrad 搭載 NEON Android 作業系統的 NSO 4 多功能顯示器;Mercury 先進的無鑰匙引擎啟動系統與創新的 Boost 空中下載(over-the-air)舷外機性能升級;以及 Fliteboard 的 RACE 超高性能機型。這些產品都展現了我們持續突破海事創新邊界的承諾。
Finally, I want to highlight the continued recognition our teams and brands are receiving across our enterprise. Through the first quarter, Brunswick has already secured nearly 50 awards and remains on track to surpass 100 awards again in 2026. This recognition spans product innovation, workplace culture, leadership, and corporate reputation and reflects the strength and consistency of our operating model and values. We are appreciative of having received many national awards now for multiple years but notably, for the first time in 2026, Brunswick was named the Fast Company's most Innovative Companies list, reflecting the wide recognition for our industry-leading innovation.
最後,我想強調我們的團隊與品牌在整個企業內持續獲得的肯定。截至第一季,Brunswick 已經拿下近 50 項獎項,並仍按計畫在 2026 年再次突破 100 項獎項。這些肯定涵蓋產品創新、職場文化、領導力與企業聲譽,反映出我們營運模式與價值觀的強健與一致性。我們很感謝多年來持續獲得多項全國性獎項;尤其值得一提的是,在 2026 年,Brunswick 首次入選《Fast Company》最具創新公司榜單,展現外界對我們業界領先創新的廣泛認可。
Thank you again to all our talented Brunswick employees who make this recognition possible. Before we open the lines for questions, I want to close by thanking our customers, channel partners, employees and shareholders for their continued strong support.
再次感謝所有才華洋溢的 Brunswick 員工,讓這些肯定得以實現。在我們開放提問之前,我想以感謝作結:感謝我們的客戶、通路夥伴、員工與股東持續而強力的支持。
We are also excited to announce our Brunswick Investor Day, which will be held on August 11 of Mercury Marine's global headquarters in Fond du Lac, Wisconsin. The event will include a facility tour, on-water product experiences, and a live Q&A with Brunswick senior leaders.
我們也很高興宣布 Brunswick 投資人日,將於 8 月 11 日在威斯康辛州 Fond du Lac 的 Mercury Marine 全球總部舉行。活動將包含設施導覽、水上產品體驗,以及與 Brunswick 資深領導團隊的現場問答。
In advance of the event of prerecorded video strategy presentation will be published to our website. For planning purposes, I kindly ask that you register your interest in attending using the contact information on this slide.
在活動之前,我們將把預錄的策略簡報影片發布於公司網站。為便於規劃,敬請您使用本投影片上的聯絡資訊登記您出席的意願。
Thank you for your attention. We'll now open the line for questions.
感謝各位的關注。接下來我們將開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(接線員指示)
Craig Kennison, Baird.
Craig Kennison,Baird。
Craig Kennison - Analyst
Craig Kennison - Analyst
It really involves Mercury, you continue to pick up market share in a soft market, which could lead to a record volume and a cyclical recovery. And then you also appear to have a winning product cycle and some tariff-related tailwinds. So I'm just thinking with all of that in mind, if you could give us an update on your capacity utilization and your ability to handle additional volumes if they were to surge and then provide a framework for thinking about incremental margin in that business?
這其實主要與 Mercury 有關:你們在疲弱的市場中仍持續提升市占,這可能帶來創紀錄的出貨量與景氣循環復甦。此外,你們看起來也正處於成功的產品週期,並且有一些與關稅相關的順風。因此在這些因素之下,能否請你們更新一下產能利用率,以及若需求突然上升時你們承接額外產量的能力?另外,也請提供一個思考該業務增量毛利(或增量利潤率)的框架。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Craig. Great question. Yes. Mercury is continuing, as you said, to gain share. And really, we have a fantastic product.
謝謝你,Craig。問得很好。是的,正如你所說,Mercury 持續提升市占。而且我們確實擁有非常出色的產品。
And what's interesting, I think, is I think that there was some belief at a point in time, maybe a year or two years ago, that some of the share gain was temporary because of supply constraints and other things. But clearly, it's not. It's very structural. We have the best product line. And as you've heard, we are investing even more in five new outboard platforms from midrange up to new extensions to our high horsepower range. It is very exciting.
我覺得有趣的是,曾經在某個時間點——也許是一到兩年前——市場上有人認為部分市占提升是暫時性的,因為供應受限等因素。但很明顯並非如此;這是非常結構性的。我們擁有最完整、最強的產品線。正如各位聽到的,我們也正在加碼投資,推出五個新的舷外機平台,從中階到高馬力區間的延伸。這非常令人振奮。
We are well capacitized after the investments that we made in 2019, 2020, 2021 to support all of the foreseeable volume. We do not anticipate any major additional investments to be able to support volume certainly in the next year or so. So yes, we're very excited about that. As you heard from Ryan and I'll maybe turn over to him. Mercury is leveraging up very nicely. And absent the tariffs, I think we're -- but, Ryan, maybe you want to take over the leverage numbers?
在我們於 2019、2020、2021 年所做的投資之後,我們的產能配置已相當充足,足以支撐所有可預見的出貨量。我們不預期為了支撐產量,在未來一年左右需要任何重大的額外投資。所以是的,我們對此非常興奮。正如你從 Ryan 那裡聽到的——我也許把話交給他——Mercury 的槓桿效益展現得非常好。若不考慮關稅,我認為我們——不過 Ryan,你要不要接著說明槓桿的數字?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. I mean we are obviously -- we always quote more than 20% operating leverage. Obviously, with tariffs, that number gets skewed a little bit, but we would have been approaching a 30% number in the quarter had we not had the tariff impact. And that is not encompassing the additional spend that Dave mentioned, where high single-digit million quarter over quarter versus Q1 of '25 to really supercharge those engine programs.
好的。我的意思是,我們顯然——我們一向引用超過 20% 的營運槓桿。當然,有了關稅之後,這個數字會被稍微扭曲;但如果沒有關稅影響,本季我們原本會接近 30%。而且這還不包含 Dave 提到的額外支出——相較於 2025 年第一季,單季季增為高個位數百萬美元——用來真正加速那些引擎專案。
Operator
Operator
James Hardiman, Citi.
James Hardiman,Citi。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
So I was wondering if you could maybe walk us through sort of demand trends that you've seen to start the year. Last time you reported, it sounded like January was off to a really, really strong start. And I think you guys have spoken to really a continuation of that in February. And so as I think about sort of a flattish first quarter I think that means that March must have been down, but then maybe speak to what you've seen in April? And particularly, I think what everybody is just trying to figure out obviously, you had a war that started, right, the end of February, beginning of March.
我想請你們帶我們走一遍今年開局以來你們看到的需求趨勢。上次你們公布時,聽起來 1 月開局非常、非常強勁,我也記得你們提到 2 月延續了那個態勢。所以當我看到第一季大致持平時,我想這代表 3 月可能是下滑的;另外也請談談你們在 4 月看到的情況?尤其是,我想大家都在試著釐清——顯然在 2 月底、3 月初爆發了戰爭,對吧。
I don't know if the narrative is that things sort of maybe slow down a little bit and have since recovered in April. But you guys have certainly spoken to sort of stable market conditions. Obviously, from month to month, that can look pretty different. But maybe just walk us through the trends.
我不確定市場敘事是不是:事情可能稍微放緩,然後在 4 月又恢復。但你們確實提到市場狀況相對穩定。當然,逐月看起來可能差異很大。不過能否請你們帶我們走過這些趨勢?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Thank you, James. Yes, I would say -- but of course, monthly volumes are quite a lot different as we go through the year with March volumes being higher than January and February. And I think overall, as we said, we did see some high early volumes in January, which have stabilized over the balance of the quarter. Whether there was any real impact of the conflict. It's very difficult for us to determine. But yes, for us, the quarter ended effectively flat both globally and domestically.
好的,謝謝你,James。是的,我會說——當然,隨著年度推進,每月的量差異很大,3 月的量通常會高於 1 月與 2 月。整體而言,如我們所說,我們在 1 月確實看到較高的早期出貨量,而在本季其餘時間已趨於穩定。至於衝突是否造成任何實質影響,我們很難判定。但就我們而言,本季在全球與美國本土市場基本上都以持平作收。
I wouldn't -- I would also note, though, that we continue to see this trend of premium outperforming value. And so if there was some additional pressure in the quarter or hesitation caused by the conflict, it likely impacted the value by more than the premium buyer.
不過我也要指出,我們仍持續看到「高端優於平價」的趨勢。因此如果本季因衝突而出現額外壓力或猶豫,影響平價客群的程度可能會高於高端買家。
As we've gone into April, we are up year over year or month over month, if you like, a month this year over April last year which is what we would have expected, to be honest, given the Liberation Day pause that really happened last year.
進入 4 月後,我們的表現年增——或如果你喜歡也可以說月度比較——也就是今年 4 月相較去年 4 月是成長的;坦白說,這也符合我們的預期,因為去年確實發生了所謂「解放日」的暫停效應。
So yes, we're encouraged by the start to the second quarter. And at the moment, that trend seems to be continuing as we look kind of week over week. Also with continued strength on the premium side, particularly. But as you saw, we did see some really good sales on the -- in our aluminum products as well, particularly our prealuminum products.
所以是的,我們對第二季的開局感到鼓舞。而且目前看起來,當我們以週對週觀察時,這個趨勢仍在延續。尤其是高端端的強勁表現仍然持續。不過如各位所見,我們在鋁製產品上也看到一些非常不錯的銷售表現,特別是我們的預鋁製產品。
So yes, we're flat. I guess, I mean, the other thing to note is that SSI data showed some depths in the first couple of months of the year and is now kind of converging more back to a flattish market, I think, is more as they report more months, and we would expect that to continue.
所以是的,我們是持平。我想——另外值得注意的是,SSI 數據顯示今年前兩個月有些下滑,而現在隨著他們納入更多月份的報告,數據正逐步收斂回到更接近持平的市場;我們也預期這個情況會持續。
James Hardiman - Analyst
James Hardiman - Analyst
Got it. And then one of the things that always stands out and sort of every year, it seems like we feel like this can't really continue. But it's the idea that the outboard engine market is again growing faster than the boat market itself. And obviously, for a long time, some of that was just stern drive to outboard.
了解。接著有一件事每年都很突出,而且似乎每年我們都覺得這不可能一直持續:那就是舷外機市場又一次比船艇市場本身成長得更快。很長一段時間,其中一部分只是艉驅轉向舷外機。
But the bigger driver just seems to be higher attach rate at this point of engines per boat. And then obviously, on top of that, you guys are gaining share and there's a lot of mix and margin benefits. But maybe speak to that, what do you think continues to drive that outboard industry outperformance.
但目前更大的驅動因素似乎是每艘船搭載的引擎數(attach rate)提高。再加上你們正在提升市占,且有很多產品組合與毛利率的好處。能否談談你們認為是什麼持續推動舷外機產業表現優於整體市場?
And then in the context of your guide, I don't know if you've spoken to this before, but if we're thinking about sort of a flat to up slightly boat industry, how are you guys thinking about sort of the outboard industry. And then you're -- I'm assuming whatever your outboard industry assumption is you think that Mercury is going to do a little bit better than that, but maybe walk us through how to think about those pieces.
另外在你們的財測指引脈絡下,我不確定你們以前是否談過:如果我們假設船艇產業大致持平到小幅成長,你們如何看待舷外機產業?然後——我猜不論你們對舷外機產業的假設是什麼,你們都認為 Mercury 會比產業表現更好一些;但能否帶我們理解這些構成要素該怎麼看?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So I think you -- I think you've got a number of the factors in there. The most folks now, almost all recreational boats effectively are powered by outboards. And so we're just continuing to get more volume that way and then also multiple engines. And you don't necessarily see offsets in our financials because some of the offsets that are happening are between our 400, 500, 600-horsepower engines and other people's diesel engines.
是的。所以我想你——我想你已經把其中幾個因素點出來了。現在大多數人——幾乎所有休閒船艇基本上都由舷外機驅動。因此我們就透過這個趨勢持續取得更多量,同時也因為多引擎配置而增加需求。而你不一定會在我們的財務數字中看到完全對應的抵消,因為部分抵消其實發生在我們的 400、500、600 匹馬力引擎與其他公司的柴油引擎之間。
The reality is, there never was a 500 or 600-horsepower outboard alternative. And we didn't even sell that many stern drive gas engines in that power range. Most of the stern drive gas engines that we would sell typically in the 200 to 400-horsepower range, which would be the old OGM kind of -- so we're grabbing share away from some of the traditional propulsion like diesel engines in the bigger boats.
現實是,以前從來沒有 500 或 600 匹馬力的舷外機替代方案。而且在那個馬力區間,我們也沒有賣出那麼多艉驅汽油引擎。我們過去銷售的艉驅汽油引擎多半是在 200 到 400 匹馬力區間,這會是舊 OGM 那種——所以我們正在從一些傳統推進系統(例如柴油引擎)手中,在更大型船艇上搶下市占。
In terms of our momentum, we continue to outperform the market for all the reasons that I've previously discussed. I am really excited about some of the new programs that are coming to market over the next couple of years as well. They're not far away which will really extend the whole range upwards and also refresh some of the mid-range products.
就我們的動能而言,基於我先前討論過的所有原因,我們持續跑贏市場。我也對未來幾年將推出市場的一些新計畫感到非常興奮。它們離現在不遠,將真正把整個產品範圍往上延伸,同時也會更新部分中階產品。
We can't forget that as we move upwards, we have to make sure that our mid-range product is is completely contemporary and continuing to outperform our competitors. So we're continuing to invest across the product line there.
我們不能忘記,當我們往上走時,必須確保我們的中階產品完全符合當代需求,並且持續優於競爭對手。因此,我們持續在該產品線上進行投資。
In terms of the overall market, I would say at the moment, everything is supporting our kind of flat to slightly up scenario, and we would expect more mercury share gain and a higher outboard attachment rate and more multiple engine products since premium is growing faster than value. Value product tends to be single engine premium product is typically or frequently multi-engine product. So those are some of the things, I think, supporting.
就整體市場而言,我會說目前各項因素都支持我們「持平到小幅成長」的情境;我們也預期 Mercury 的市占率會進一步提升、舷外機的搭載率更高,以及多引擎產品更多,因為高端(premium)成長速度快於平價(value)。平價產品通常是單引擎;高端產品通常或經常是多引擎產品。我認為這些都是支撐因素。
It's not honestly just -- if you think about Mercury's profitability, though, it is not just every engine we sell is what we sell with it like the controls and rigging, and we are just selling more and more sophisticated controls. So you see that part of Mercury's portfolio growing. The more multi engines we sell, the more joysticks, we'll have also capped in all of those things increase kind of share of wallet and attachment rate for sophisticated controls.
坦白說,如果你思考 Mercury 的獲利能力,不只是我們賣出每一具引擎本身,還包括我們隨引擎一起賣出的東西,例如控制系統與安裝配套(rigging);而且我們正在銷售越來越精密的控制系統。所以你會看到 Mercury 產品組合中這一部分在成長。我們賣出的多引擎越多,搖桿(joystick)等配備也會越多;所有這些都提升了錢包份額(share of wallet)以及精密控制系統的搭載率。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
The only other thing I'd add, Dave, is given the fact that the larger portion of the boat market now is outboard, as you mentioned, that makes it a larger TAM for repower. So we're seeing more and more repower just because there's more boats to repower over time. So that James also adds to the maybe acceleration of engine, retail versus just pure boats.
Dave,我唯一想補充的是,鑑於如你所提到的,現在船艇市場中更大比例是舷外機,這使得汰換動力(repower)的可服務市場(TAM)更大。因此,我們看到越來越多的 repower,單純是因為隨時間推移,可供 repower 的船變多了。James,這也可能促使引擎零售相較於純船艇的成長出現加速。
Operator
Operator
Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.
Xian Siew,法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Maybe on the slide you kind of mentioned the competitive landscape and other competitors may be having tariffs. I mean maybe could you elaborate a bit more on where you're seeing the competitive landscape in terms of pricing and offering and how that could kind of evolve and support further share gains?
也許在投影片上你提到競爭態勢,以及其他競爭對手可能面臨關稅。我想請你再多說一點:你們在定價與產品供給方面看到的競爭格局是什麼?它可能如何演變並支持進一步的市占提升?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. I would have to say pricing is pretty muted, I would say, in outboards at the moment. Mercury got in place 2% price increase at the beginning of this year, our Japanese competitors are in that range as well. So I think what we're at the moment, seeing is essentially pricing constrained by the market. And nobody really wanting to take price even though there is margin pressure, not for us, but even more, I think, for our Japanese competitors.
是的。我必須說,目前舷外機的定價相當平淡。今年年初 Mercury 已實施 2% 的漲價,我們的日本競爭對手也大致在這個區間。所以我認為我們目前看到的是,定價基本上受到市場限制。即使存在毛利壓力,也沒有人真的想漲價——對我們而言不是問題,但我認為對日本競爭對手而言壓力更大。
As the market normalizes over time, we'll see how that goes. But at the moment, we're -- it's important for us to continue to gain share because of everything we've discussed plus the attachment rate for P&A that we get over time. So we try and think about this somewhat in the long term. I think it is clear from some of the commentary and announcements last year that the margin pressures are fairly acute amongst some of our competitors, but they're better to speak to that.
隨著市場隨時間正常化,我們再看看會如何發展。但就目前而言,對我們來說,持續提升市占很重要,原因包括我們討論過的一切,以及我們隨時間從零配件(P&A)的搭載率所獲得的效益。因此我們會以較長期的角度來思考。我認為從去年一些評論與公告可以清楚看出,部分競爭對手的毛利壓力相當嚴峻,但這部分他們更適合自己說明。
Xian Siew - Analyst
Xian Siew - Analyst
Okay. And then maybe you mentioned the repower market. Just kind of wondering if you could update us a little bit of how big that is for you guys. And I think previously, you talked about maybe 20% of engine sales are kind of repowered, but it seems like maybe it's growing a bit more. Maybe can you talk about repower and where that's going.
好的。然後你提到 repower 市場。我想了解你們這塊業務的規模能否更新一下。之前你們談到大約 20% 的引擎銷量來自 repower,但看起來好像成長了一些。能否談談 repower 以及未來走向?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Xian, I can take that. It's still about 15% to 20% of units sold and that it hasn't changed materially. It does differ by jurisdiction. And then where you are. There's some markets certainly outside the US, which is very high in repower like Australia and New Zealand. So really no changes there. We're just seeing good volume throughout all the channels.
可以,Xian,我來回答。仍然約占售出單位數的 15% 到 20%,沒有實質變化。不同司法管轄區、不同地區會有差異。美國以外確實有一些市場的 repower 比例很高,例如澳洲與紐西蘭。所以這方面沒有變化;我們只是看到所有通路的量都表現不錯。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. What I would say is our share of free power is lower than our share of OEM. And one of the reasons for that is, look, when you repower, there are more repowers typically in the saltwater markets where corrosion and higher performance tends to take more of a toll on the engines. And that saltwater market is a market that we've really been expanding into only over the last, really, five, six years or so. So we would expect to have a higher right to win in that market as our OEM share becomes more reflected in the overall ballpark.
是的。我會說,我們在 repower 的市占低於我們在 OEM 的市占。其中一個原因是:當你進行 repower 時,通常在鹽水市場的 repower 較多,因為腐蝕與較高性能使用情境往往對引擎造成更大耗損。而鹽水市場是我們在過去大約五、六年才真正大幅擴張進入的市場。因此,隨著我們的 OEM 市占在整體市場中更充分反映出來,我們預期在該市場會有更高的勝出機率(right to win)。
And then over the next three or five years, we would expect share gains in repower as more of our product comes up to be in the repower cycle of kind of 8 to 10 years.
此外,在未來三到五年,我們預期 repower 的市占會提升,因為更多我們的產品將進入大約 8 到 10 年的 repower 週期。
Operator
Operator
Anna Glaessgen, B. Riley Securities.
Anna Glaessgen,B. Riley Securities。
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
I guess I'd like to start on the commentary on guidance on the one hand, lower tariffs, and flowing through the 1Q beat while also balancing with the conservative macro. I guess, could you provide a little bit more perspective on how that's informing the guidance and potentially if we don't see any disruption of what that could potentially look like for the year?
我想先從你們對財測(guidance)的評論開始:一方面關稅降低並反映在第一季優於預期(beat)中,同時又要在保守的總體環境下取得平衡。你們能否多提供一些觀點,說明這如何影響財測?以及如果我們沒有看到任何干擾,今年可能會呈現什麼樣貌?
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Maybe I'll start, and then Dave can fill in. So as you know and you know us well, I mean, we are three months into the year, and the first quarter is generally the smallest quarter, first and fourth quarter. We had a really nice start to the year, which we're very happy about. And we did get some -- a little bit of tariff goodness, right? So if we look at the -- if I look at the tariff calculation, the IEEPA going away, being replaced by 122 was a good guy.
我先說,然後 Dave 可以補充。如你所知、也很了解我們,我們現在才進入今年第三個月,而第一季通常是最小的季度之一(第一季與第四季)。我們今年開局非常好,對此很高興。我們也確實得到一些——一點點關稅方面的利多,對吧?如果我看關稅的計算,IEEPA 的取消、改由 122 取代,是個好消息。
But then the changes to 232 were a slight bad guy. What that did was it didn't really take us outside our initial tariff range for the year, but it put us from the high end of the range where we probably started the year down to the low end of the range. So that Q1 beats a good guy, and tariffs is another small good guy.
但 232 的變更則是個小小的壞消息。其結果是,並沒有讓我們超出年初對全年關稅影響的原先區間,但把我們從年初可能位於區間高端的位置,拉到區間低端。所以第一季的 beat 是好消息,關稅也是另一個小幅的好消息。
But then we just look at the cautiousness in the consumer and we look at everything that's going on in the world, and we're entering our core selling season and we feel comfortable where we are with guidance. I think -- if the world stays where it is today and the other shoe doesn't drop, I think we can get to our high end of our range or better, right?
但接著我們看消費者的謹慎態度,也看世界上正在發生的一切;我們正進入核心銷售旺季,因此我們對目前的財測水準感到安心。我認為——如果世界維持今天的狀態、沒有其他重大變數發生,我們可以達到區間高端甚至更好,對吧?
I think our point on guidance was really to move up the bottom end and certainly, to take some risk off the table from what we've seen already thus far. But it's obvious that being a little bit cautious given the world activities is prudent at this stage as we really come into the next two quarters where we make 55%, 60% of our sales and profit for the year. So we tried not to overthink it, but we gave some of the beat through, which includes some of the goodness on tariffs, and we also have just being thoughtful about what's going on.
我認為我們在財測上的重點,主要是把區間下緣往上調,並且把截至目前所看到的部分風險先從桌面上拿掉。但很明顯,在目前全球局勢下保持一些謹慎是審慎之舉,尤其我們即將進入接下來兩個季度——這兩季我們通常會貢獻全年 55% 到 60% 的銷售與獲利。所以我們盡量不過度解讀,但我們把部分 beat 反映進去,其中也包含關稅的一些利多,同時也對現況保持周全考量。
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Anna Glaessgen - Analyst
Great. And then on 1Q results, thinking through the upside versus initial expectations on EPS. To what extent were potentially lower tariffs in the quarter contributing to that? I just want to understand the upside versus guide? And were there any expenses that shifted into 2Q?
很好。接著談第一季結果,從 EPS 相對於原先預期的上行來看,關稅在該季度可能較低的部分,對此貢獻有多大?我想了解相對於財測的上行來源。另外,有沒有任何費用遞延到第二季?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
No, no, not on either, no. I think tariffs came in pretty much spot as we expected. And no, we did not push any expenses out of the quarter. It was basically a straight beat based on improved revenues and really nice leverage. And obviously, we have some additional tariff headwinds in Q2 that is informing Q2 guidance.
沒有,兩者都沒有。我認為關稅的結果基本上與我們預期的即期水準一致。而且我們沒有把任何費用往後推到下一季。這基本上是因為營收改善以及非常好的營運槓桿所帶來的直接 beat。當然,我們在第二季仍有一些額外的關稅逆風,這也反映在第二季的財測中。
But like Ryan said, we're really -- I think this year, particularly, we'd rather be in a beat and raise cycle then take everything to the bank.
但如 Ryan 所說,今年尤其如此,我們寧可處在「beat 並上調」的循環,而不是一開始就把所有利多都一次反映到財測裡。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. Dave, you brought -- just to be very clear on Q2, the only real disconnect between our guidance and what the Street was modeling was the tariff impact. And it's rather material still. If you remember, we said on the January call that Q1 was about two-thirds or 60% of our tariff impact for the year and the remainder in Q2, and that holds true.
是的。Dave,你提到——為了非常清楚地說明第二季:我們的財測與市場(Street)模型之間唯一真正的落差,就是關稅影響,而且仍然相當顯著。如果你記得,我們在一月的電話會議上說過,第一季約占全年關稅影響的三分之二或 60%,其餘在第二季,而目前仍然如此。
And what it ends up being and there's a lot of mechanics here, balance sheet and LIFO and cap variances that nobody wants to go talk about on an earnings call. But the upshot is that the first half is a bad guy outside the 35% to 45% range. And the second half is actually a good guy that brings us back down into the range. So if you normalize Q2 just for the anticipated tariff impact, your EPS growth would be very similar to what we delivered in Q1. And so that's why the Q2 guided just slightly down from what the Street anticipated.
而最終的結果是——這裡面有很多會計與機制問題,像是資產負債表、LIFO(後進先出法)以及資本化差異(cap variances),這些都不是任何人想在財報電話會議上拿出來談的。但重點是:上半年是「壞人」,會讓我們落在 35% 到 45% 區間之外;而下半年其實是「好人」,會把我們拉回到該區間內。所以如果你把 Q2 只就預期的關稅影響做正常化處理,你的 EPS 成長會非常接近我們在 Q1 交出的表現。這也是為什麼我們對 Q2 的指引只比華爾街原先預期略低一些。
I think they just hadn't caught up to all the tariff movements yet.
我認為他們只是還沒跟上所有關稅變動的節奏。
Operator
Operator
Gerrick Johnson, Seaport.
Gerrick Johnson,Seaport。
Joe Altobello, Raymond James.
Joe Altobello,Raymond James。
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
First question I wanted to ask about the industry outlook. You still calling for flat to up for the year. And I'm curious, are you assuming any underlying fundamental improvement over the balance of the year? Or does that just extrapolate current trends and then you're lapping the post liberation day slowdown last spring. Because you did mention you're not anticipating any rate cuts -- any additional rate cuts.
第一個問題我想問產業展望。你們仍然預期全年持平到成長。我很好奇,你們是否假設今年剩餘期間會有任何底層基本面的改善?還是只是把目前趨勢外推,然後你們會跨過去年春天「解放日」之後的放緩基期?因為你確實提到你們不預期會有任何降息——任何額外的降息。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Joe, I think we certainly are anticipating that at least early Q2 will be up over last year. And that's what we're seeing as we head into the second quarter. We're also seeing, I think, dealers pretty optimistic despite everything that's going on around us. So -- and they have yet to the ground.
是的。Joe,我想我們確實預期至少在 Q2 初期會比去年同期成長。而這也是我們在進入第二季時所看到的情況。我們也看到,我認為,經銷商儘管周遭發生了這麼多事情,仍然相當樂觀。所以——而且他們還沒有到……(原文不完整)
So we're continuing to get good order patterns. Show sales were good. And then honestly, the back half of the year last year was okay as well. So we just need to get through Q2, particularly early Q2 with a bit of overperformance, I think, to realize flat to up market.
所以我們持續看到良好的訂單型態。展會銷售表現不錯。然後老實說,去年下半年其實也還可以。所以我們只需要度過 Q2,特別是 Q2 初期要有一點超預期的表現,我認為就能實現市場持平到成長。
And once again, premium continues to outperform value. So there are a couple of -- there's a bit of stratification inside there. But yes, I think the environment is pretty good. If you look at the interest rate environment, loan rates are still kind of 200 basis points down, maybe a bit more than from that peak, about 7.5%. Our dealers still getting flow-through from last year's cuts into the floorplan financing.
而且再一次,高端(premium)持續優於平價(value)。所以裡面有一些——有一點分層的現象。但我認為環境相當不錯。若看利率環境,貸款利率仍較高點下降約 200 個基點,可能還多一點;高點大約在 7.5%。我們的經銷商仍在地板融資(floorplan financing)上享受到去年降息帶來的傳導效益。
So that tailwind is definitely present. And we are also seeing that slightly improved discount environment, which is a good indicator of some retail strength.
所以這股順風確實存在。我們也看到折扣環境略有改善,這是零售端需求有些強度的一個良好指標。
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Joseph Altobello - Analyst
Well, that was sort of my next question, Dave, which was last year, inventories were a little bit heavier across the industry than they are today. And obviously, there was a lot of spending behind that. So how much of a benefit do you think you'll get this year from the lower promotional spending?
嗯,這其實就是我的下一個問題,Dave。去年整個產業的庫存比現在稍微偏高,而顯然也因此投入了很多促銷支出。所以你認為今年因為促銷支出降低,會帶來多大的好處?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
We still think our estimate of about 40 basis points is a good one, and we got about 100 basis point benefit. But even with another 40 basis points, we'll still be a couple of points above historical norms back, if you look back to 2018 or 2019, something like that. Yes, so there's good room to -- we think we'll grab some back this year. That's what we're seeing about 40 basis points -- but we still think that there's some room to run in a more normalized market situation as we move forward.
我們仍然認為大約 40 個基點的估計是合理的,而我們曾經拿到約 100 個基點的好處。但即便再多 40 個基點,我們仍會比歷史常態高出幾個百分點——如果你回頭看 2018 或 2019 年之類的水準。是的,所以我們認為今年有不錯的空間可以——拿回一些。我們目前看到大約 40 個基點——但我們仍認為,隨著未來市場回到更正常化的狀態,還有進一步改善的空間。
Operator
Operator
Gerrick Johnson, Seaport.
Gerrick Johnson,Seaport。
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
Gerrick Johnson - Analyst
I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into trends in your boat group, better sales growth in aluminum. We've seen that in the numbers. And then was kind of okay and then down in saltwater. Saltwater has been down for a number of quarters. Can you talk about what's going on within the Boat Group and the segments there?
我想更深入談談你們船艇事業群(Boat Group)的趨勢,鋁製船的銷售成長更好,我們在數字上也看到了。然後玻璃纖維(fiberglass)算是還可以,鹽水(saltwater)則是下滑。鹽水市場已經下滑好幾個季度了。你能談談 Boat Group 內部以及各細分領域到底發生了什麼嗎?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Gerrick. Yes, we're seeing particularly a strength in our Lund brand, which is our premium fresh water brand, which is driving a lot of the increase. We're also seeing really good performance with our Harris pontoon boats, which is also outperforming the market. In both cases, we have strong premium end of aluminum brands with a lot of recent investment in new products. So good outperformance.
可以。Gerrick。是的,我們特別看到 Lund 品牌的強勁表現——這是我們高端淡水品牌——它帶動了很大一部分的成長。我們也看到 Harris 浮筒船(pontoon boats)的表現非常好,同樣優於市場。在這兩個案例中,我們都擁有高端鋁製品牌,而且近年在新產品上投入很多,所以表現明顯超越。
If you think of the characteristics of the freshwater markets as well, typically pretty dedicated to fishing, not of very high leverage of fuel prices, for example. They don't go a long way. They go to a fishing spot and hang out or on a pontoon something similar. So I think our brands, particularly the premium end of our aluminum brands are performing very well.
如果你想想淡水市場的特性,通常釣魚族群黏著度很高,而且例如對燃油價格的敏感度並不高。他們不會跑很遠;他們去一個釣點就待著,或是開浮筒船做類似的活動。所以我認為我們的品牌,特別是我們鋁製品牌的高端產品,表現非常好。
As you said, Rec Fiberglass is up a bit. What I would say, as you know, we rationalized our value portfolio in Rec Fiberglass. So that is really a product of our Sea Ray brand and to some extent, on the band brand being up both of those are premium brands.
如你所說,休閒玻璃纖維(Rec Fiberglass)小幅成長。我會說,正如你所知,我們已在 Rec Fiberglass 的平價產品組合做了精簡與合理化。因此那主要是 Sea Ray 品牌的貢獻,某種程度上還有……(原文疑似口誤/不清)品牌的成長;這兩個都是高端品牌。
And then in saltwater, Whaler, which is our premium saltwater brand, is actually up year-over-year and the bit of softness that we're seeing is more in the value side of our salt water. So those are some of the kind of trends behind the trends, if you like.
然後在鹽水市場方面,Whaler——我們的高端鹽水品牌——其實年增為正;我們看到的那一點疲弱更多是在鹽水產品的平價端。所以如果你願意這麼說,這些就是「趨勢背後的趨勢」。
Operator
Operator
Molly Baum, Morgan Stanley.
Molly Baum,Morgan Stanley。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
My first question, I just wanted to ask a little bit about some of the operational efficiencies that you saw in the quarter. Where you're seeing the most room in the business to take cost out? And if you've seen any benefit from the footprint rationalization on the value side of the boat business and if not, when can expect to see some of that as well.
我的第一個問題是,我想請你談談本季你們看到的一些營運效率提升。你們認為業務中哪裡還有最大的降本空間?另外,你們在船艇業務平價端進行據點/產能布局合理化(footprint rationalization)是否已看到任何效益?如果還沒有,大概何時可以期待看到?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Well, I think the biggest businesses that are experiencing efficiency benefits at the moment from footprint and other sources of Navico Group and Boat group. I'll do Boat group first because you mentioned it earlier. The process of rationalizing those facilities is on track, but they're all actually a headwind to us from a cost basis this year will flow through to, I think, more than 10 million of efficiencies next year. So we would expect to see the majority of that.
是的。我想目前從據點布局以及 Navico Group 和 Boat Group 其他來源,正在體現效率效益的最大業務就是這兩個。我先講 Boat Group,因為你剛剛提到。那些設施合理化的流程正按計畫進行,但今年從成本角度看,它們其實對我們是逆風;我認為明年會轉化為超過 1,000 萬美元的效率效益。所以我們預期大部分效益會在那時體現。
Then -- but we continue to work on consolidating production lines and introducing more operational efficiencies in various ways in the Boat group, notably a lot of work on on value engineering across all of our product lines, making sure that what we're putting in the boat is really what consumers want and making sure we deliver it as efficiently as possible.
然後——但我們仍持續在 Boat Group 透過各種方式整併產線並導入更多營運效率,尤其是在所有產品線上做大量的價值工程(value engineering)工作,確保我們放進船裡的配置確實是消費者想要的,並確保我們以最高效率交付。
Navico Group continues to rationalize footprint and close to smaller facilities within the last, I think, at the end of the fourth quarter or early this year. So it continues to benefit from that and a whole range of other operational efficiencies. We're getting Navico Group now to the point where the footprint is just about right, the investments in new products are coming through strongly with some market share gains as you saw.
Navico Group 也持續進行據點布局合理化,並在我記得是第四季末或今年初,關閉了較小的設施。因此它持續從中受益,並同時推動一整套其他營運效率。我們現在把 Navico Group 推進到一個據點布局幾乎剛剛好的狀態;在新產品上的投資也正強勁地開花結果,並帶來一些市占提升,如你所見。
And so we're getting -- we got that really nice pop in margins, which I think we believe is sustainable and will continue to grow. So yes, I would say Boat Group is proceeding to plan, but we won't get full benefit this year. We'll get some benefit in the second half of the year. Navico Group continues on its journey, but we've done an awful lot of work, including in the recent quarters.
因此我們正在——我們的毛利率出現了非常漂亮的一次跳升,我們相信這是可持續的,並且會持續成長。所以是的,我會說 Boat Group 正按計畫推進,但今年拿不到全部效益;我們會在今年下半年拿到部分效益。Navico Group 也持續在其轉型旅程上前進,而我們已經做了非常多工作,包括最近幾個季度。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Got it. And if I could just ask one follow-up on boiler plate one. Can you remind us what level of IEEPA tariffs you've actually paid on an annualized basis? And if all of those are eligible for refunds should they get paid out? I know that's not included in guidance, but if you do get a pay out if all of those would qualify.
了解。那如果我可以就制式(boilerplate)那一題追問一下:你能提醒我們,你們實際支付的 IEEPA 關稅,按年化計算大概是多少水準嗎?另外,如果未來真的發放退款,這些是否全部都符合退款資格?我知道這不包含在指引中,但如果你們確實收到款項,是否這些都會符合?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
I think the answer is yes. Yes. So yes. So we have begun the process of applying for IEEPA tariff refunds. It's happening in phases.
我想答案是是的。是的。是的。所以我們已經開始申請 IEEPA 關稅退款的流程,會分階段進行。
We've made our first applications. The total value of IEEPA refunds that we now estimate is something like $50 million. And we expect at the moment, we would plan to recognize it as we receive the cash, which we would expect to be some over the balance of this year and some next year.
我們已經提出第一批申請。我們目前估計 IEEPA 退款的總金額大約是 5,000 萬美元。我們目前的規劃是,在收到現金時再予以認列;我們預期其中一部分會在今年剩餘期間收到,另一部分會在明年收到。
Operator
Operator
Tristan Thomas-Martin, BMO Capital Markets.
Tristan Thomas-Martin,BMO Capital Markets。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Just wanted to ask about the value boater. We kind of remove all the macro pressures? What do you think it takes for them to kind of come back to market? Or is it truly just the macro pressures that are keeping them up?
我想問一下平價船主(value boater)。如果我們把所有總體(macro)壓力先拿掉,你認為要怎樣他們才會回到市場?還是說,真的是只有總體壓力讓他們卻步?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Well, I think what we're trying to do is meet them why they want to be met. And I would differentiate between the fishing-related boating and general purpose boating. And fishing, as you saw, is actually up, aluminum boats are up, certainly on the premium end, but also pretty strong in the value end. If it's part of your lifestyle if it's what you do outside work and other things, then you keep doing it, and they keep being enthusiastic boaters.
嗯,我認為我們正在努力做的是,以他們希望被滿足的方式去滿足他們。我會區分與釣魚相關的划船活動與一般用途的划船。釣魚方面,如你所見,實際上是成長的,鋁製船艇是成長的,當然在高端市場表現更好,但在價值端也相當強勁。如果這是你生活方式的一部分,是你在工作與其他事情之外所做的事,那你就會持續去做,而他們也會持續成為充滿熱情的船艇玩家。
On the fiberglass side, on the value end, it tends to be more general purpose run about type voting. And that's where we think there is a bit more fungibility between people spending on boating and people spending on other leisure alternatives, and/or being potentially more pressured with discretionary spending.
在玻璃纖維船方面,在價值端,通常更偏向一般用途的休閒快艇類型。而我們認為在這一塊,人們在船艇消費與其他休閒替代選項之間的可替代性更高,並且/或者在可支配支出上可能承受更大的壓力。
However, that is where our Freedom Boat Club can play a very big role in changing the kind of spending patterns, if you like, for boating. So instead of a large capital outlay, joining fee and then monthly dues and that does give you access to a wide variety of boats. And it's very convenient, which is often what that kind of boater is looking for. They're maybe not as dedicated to the lifestyle as somebody who goes fishing and maybe just looking for a bit more convenience. So we're trying to meet those boaters with alternatives. But we have obviously taken a step to rationalize our product line in that area and invest more in for your boat love.
不過,這正是我們的 Freedom Boat Club 能在改變船艇消費模式方面扮演非常重要角色的地方。也就是說,不需要一次性的大額資本支出,而是支付入會費,之後按月繳會費,便可使用各式各樣的船艇。這非常便利,而這往往正是那類船主所追求的。他們可能不像釣魚的人那樣把它當成生活方式那麼投入,而是更想要便利性。因此我們嘗試用替代方案來滿足這些船主。但我們也很明顯地已採取措施,在該領域合理化我們的產品線,並加大對「for your boat love」的投資。
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Tristan Thomas-Martin - Analyst
Okay. And then just really quick, maybe if you could provide an update on kind of how you're thinking about normalized boat demand.
好的。那再很快問一下,也許你能更新一下你們對所謂正常化船艇需求的看法。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
In the short term, our expectations remain kind of flat to slightly up market. I think at the I think we clearly have seen what we believe is an inflection, the market is stabilizing. There are so many external factors, just exogenous factors at the moment that it is very difficult to deconflate everything that's going on.
短期來看,我們的預期仍是市場大致持平到小幅成長。我認為我們很清楚看到我們所相信的一個拐點:市場正在趨於穩定。當前有太多外部因素、也就是外生因素,使得很難把正在發生的一切拆解開來分辨其影響。
But there appears to be a stabilization versus some of the declines from 2020 through to about 2024. So we're excited about that. We still see this stratification between premium and value. But absent some other major external change, and of course, we've been hoping for that for several years now. We don't see any reason why the market can't return to growth as some of the things that are causing people to be a bit more cautious, hopefully begin to alleviate.
但相較於 2020 年到大約 2024 年期間的一些下滑,目前看起來是出現了穩定。因此我們對此感到振奮。我們仍看到高端與價值端之間的分層現象。但若沒有其他重大的外部變化——當然,我們這幾年一直在期待那樣的變化——我們看不出有任何理由使市場不能重回成長;隨著一些讓人們更謹慎的因素希望逐步緩解,市場應可回到成長軌道。
So we would anticipate in subsequent years modest regrowth of the market in the low to mid-single-digit range.
因此我們預期在後續年度,市場將以低到中個位數的幅度溫和回升成長。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
And maybe I would just add, supported by two other things. One, the used market right now is actually in really good shape. If you've been tracking used product on -- gently used product on most dealer lots is actually relatively light. And that then supports my second point, which is the value calculation for folks trading up and trading in is actually much improved today than it was a couple of years ago. People have more equity in their boats.
我再補充兩點作為支撐。第一,二手市場目前其實狀況很好。如果你一直在追蹤二手產品——大多數經銷商場地上的「輕度使用」產品其實相對偏少。這也支撐我的第二點:對於想要以舊換新、升級換購的人來說,今天的價值計算比幾年前改善很多。人們在自己的船上有更多淨值。
If you -- if you bought a boat around COVID, you have more equity, you've had more years, and your ability to get more for that trade and has improved. And so the dynamics to trade up and trade in has improved, which we believe are getting some folks off the sidelines. So that would continue.
如果你是在 COVID 前後買的船,你的淨值更高,持有年限也更長,而你在換購時能為舊船取得更高的折抵價也有所改善。因此,升級換購與以舊換新的動能變得更好,我們相信這正讓一些原本觀望的人開始回到市場。這樣的趨勢應會持續。
And then lastly, I would just offer that even in a very conservative US boat market, we are at half or 60% of replacement value as new boat sales. So we've got a lot of room to run and that is a part of the calculation that we'll discuss on our Investor Day in August.
最後我想補充的是,即使在非常保守的美國船艇市場,新船銷售量也僅相當於替換需求的 50% 或 60%。所以我們仍有很大的成長空間,而這也是我們將在 8 月投資人日討論的計算因素之一。
Operator
Operator
Noah Zatzkin, KeyBanc Capital Markets.
Noah Zatzkin,KeyBanc Capital Markets。
Noah Zatzkin - Analyst
Noah Zatzkin - Analyst
Just on the guidance range, what are kind of the -- at a high level, the kind of differences between the $4 and the $4.50. Is it fair to say like the retail environment expectations are consistent on both ends of the range? And I guess, relatedly, could you remind us what sort of shipment tailwind you expect in kind of the flat to up slightly retail environment this year?
關於指引區間,從高層次來看,$4 到 $4.50 之間的差異主要是什麼?是否可以說,區間兩端對零售環境的預期是一致的?另外相關地,能否提醒我們,在今年零售持平到小幅成長的環境下,你們預期出貨會帶來什麼樣的順風?
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yes. On the range, I think Ryan really said it earlier. If no other shoe drops, the top end of the range is or even we could do better than that. We're really at the moment trying to trying to just overlay some caution based on some of the external volatility, which would potentially begin to create some additional caution, not necessarily in the US market, but in some of the markets in which we operate around the world.
是的。關於區間,我想 Ryan 先前其實已經說過了。如果沒有其他不利因素出現,區間上緣是可以達到的,甚至我們可能做得更好。我們目前主要是基於外部波動性,疊加一些謹慎的假設;這些波動可能會在我們全球營運的某些市場(不一定是美國市場)引發更多的謹慎情緒。
So that is just an overlay of caution, I think, that gets us to the bottom end. Obviously, we can link that with specific revenue assumptions from around the world and margin assumptions, but that's really what it is.
所以這就是一個謹慎的疊加因素,我認為它把我們帶到區間下緣。當然,我們可以把它連結到全球各地更具體的營收假設與毛利假設,但本質上就是這樣。
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
Ryan Gwillim - Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Executive Vice President
And then just on your specific question on balancing retail and wholesale. If you assume a flat boat market, then wholesale is going to be up mid-single digits on a unit basis. And that's just to match retail and wholesale, given lower wholesale at the start of the year last year.
再來針對你關於零售與批發平衡的具體問題:如果你假設船艇市場持平,那麼批發在出貨台數上將會有中個位數的成長。這只是為了讓零售與批發相匹配,因為去年年初的批發基期較低。
And on the engine side, it's actually a little bit greater than that. It's probably up mid- to high single digits on units. Given that engine pipelines continue to be lower, even certainly in high horsepower as well. I mean we took out -- we've taken out 10% of 175-horsepower and above pipeline each of the last two years. So the balancing retail to wholesale there is a good dynamic even in a flat market.
而在引擎方面,成長其實會略高一些,台數可能是中到高個位數的成長。因為引擎通路庫存仍然偏低,尤其是高馬力產品也是如此。我的意思是,我們在過去兩年每一年都把 175 匹馬力以上的通路庫存削減了 10%。因此,即使在持平的市場中,零售與批發的平衡在那裡仍是個良性的動態。
Operator
Operator
This concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, we would like to turn the call back over to Dave for some concluding remarks.
問答環節到此結束。此時,我們想把電話交回給 Dave,請他做一些結語。
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
David Foulkes - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, everyone for your questions. Another very encouraging quarter for us. Solid retail revenue up substantially across all of our businesses, margin expansion, really good earnings leverage, and continued really solid free cash flow. We continue to outperform the market, and I think the external environment, I think our -- we're clearly firing on all cylinders now. All of the parts of our businesses are really doing well. So we're very excited about that and excited about both this year and the future in general.
謝謝大家的提問。對我們而言,這又是一個非常令人鼓舞的季度。零售營收表現穩健,且在我們所有業務中都大幅成長;毛利率擴張,獲利槓桿非常好,自由現金流也持續相當強勁。我們持續跑贏市場;而就外部環境而言,我認為我們——很明顯現在各方面都火力全開。我們業務的各個部分都表現得非常好。因此我們對此非常興奮,也對今年以及整體未來感到期待。
Our recurring revenue businesses still are doing great, providing extremely strong earnings and free cash flow. As we have said a couple of times in response to the question, setting guidance in this environment is a little bit trickier even than normal, but we would prefer to be in beaten raise cycle then take everything to the bank right now, given how early we are in the year.
我們的經常性收入業務仍然表現出色,帶來極為強勁的獲利與自由現金流。正如我們在回答問題時提過幾次,在這樣的環境下設定指引比平常更具挑戰;但考量到今年才剛開始,我們寧可處在「超預期並上調」的循環中,也不想現在就把所有好消息一次反映完。
And then finally, please reserve a spot at our investor event in August. We're very excited about it. It will be at our Mercury Marine headquarters in Fond de Lac. You will see all the production of those fantastic engines that are leading the market right now. From the leadership team and be able to experience some of our latest products on the water.
最後,請預留名額參加我們 8 月的投資人活動。我們對此非常期待。活動將在我們位於 Fond de Lac 的 Mercury Marine 總部舉行。你將能看到那些目前引領市場的卓越引擎的完整生產流程,並與領導團隊交流,還能在水上體驗我們的一些最新產品。
Thank you very much.
非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。