賓士域 (BC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. Welcome to Brunswick Corporation's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's meeting will be recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Neha Clark Senior Vice President, Enterprise Finance Brunswick Corporation. You may begin.

早安.歡迎參加 Brunswick Corporation 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的會議將被錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。現在我想介紹 Neha Clark 布倫瑞克公司企業融資部資深副總裁。你可以開始了。

Good morning and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are Dave Foulkes, Brunswick's CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, CFO. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations. For details on these factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release.

早安，感謝您加入我們。今天早上與我一起參加電話會議的是 Brunswick 執行長 Dave Foulkes。和財務長 Ryan Gwillim。在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想提醒大家，在這次電話會議中，我們的評論將包括某些有關未來結果的前瞻性陳述。請記住，我們的實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關需要考慮的這些因素的詳細信息，請參閱我們最近向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的新聞稿。

All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com. During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix of this presentation and the reconciliation section of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results. I will now turn the call over to Dave.

所有這些文件均可在我們的網站 Brunswick.com 上取得。在我們的演示中，我們將提及某些非公認會計準則財務資訊。本簡報的附錄以及今日業績所附未經審計的合併財務報表的調整部分提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。我現在將把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Neha, and good morning, everyone. Our business has delivered solid results in the quarter as continued market share gains, wealth of new products and expanded contribution from recurring revenue businesses resulted in financial performance in line with expectations despite the challenging marine market. We continue to tightly manage field inventory across all our channels and have adjusted production accordingly, ending the quarter with 10,700 units in the US pipeline, around 200 units below prior year. Our third quarter results again demonstrated the resiliency of our portfolio with our recurring revenue businesses and channels, including our engine P&A business, propulsions repower business, Freedom Boat Club, and Navico Group's aftermarket sales contributing nearly 70% of our Q3 adjusted operating earnings.

謝謝，尼哈，大家早安。儘管海洋市場充滿挑戰，但我們的業務在本季度取得了穩健的業績，市場份額持續增長，新產品豐富，經常性收入業務貢獻擴大，財務業績符合預期。我們繼續嚴格管理所有通路的現場庫存，並相應地調整產量，本季末美國在建庫存量為 10,700 台，比去年同期減少約 200 台。我們第三季的業績再次證明了我們的經常性收入業務和通路的投資組合的彈性，包括我們的引擎P&A 業務、推進動力更新業務、Freedom Boat Club 和Navico Group 的售後市場銷售，貢獻了我們第三季調整後營業利潤的近70%。

As we enter the final months of the year, we estimate full-year new boat retail unit sales to finish in-line with our expectations of down approximately 10% versus prior year. With the core retail selling season behind us and retail discounting levels remaining elevated, dealer re-ordering in some segments is slower than anticipated, leading most boat OEMs to maintain lower production rates, impacting propulsion and Navico Group OEM orders. However, our aftermarket-based engine parts, accessories, and distribution businesses, and Freedom Boat Club continue to perform well as boating participation remains strong.

隨著進入今年最後幾個月，我們預計全年新船零售單位銷售將符合我們的預期，比上年下降約 10%。隨著核心零售銷售季節的過去以及零售折扣水平仍然較高，某些細分市場的經銷商重新訂購速度慢於預期，導致大多數船舶原始設備製造商維持較低的生產率，從而影響了推進系統和Navico Group OEM 訂單。然而，我們基於售後市場的引擎零件、配件和分銷業務以及自由船俱樂部繼續表現良好，划船參與度仍然強勁。

Prudent capital management remains a priority, and we recently executed an amendment to our revolving credit facility, increasing the commitments to $1 billion and extending the maturity to October 2029. We also increased the size of our commercial paper program, permitting the issuance of commercial paper notes, also up to $1 billion, to provide further capital flexibility. In addition, our businesses delivered strong cash flow, enabling us to complete $190 million of share repurchases year-to-date and maintaining our commitment to return value to shareholders.

審慎的資本管理仍然是首要任務，我們最近對循環信貸安排進行了修訂，將承諾額增加到 10 億美元，並將期限延長至 2029 年 10 月。我們還擴大了商業票據計畫的規模，允許發行高達 10 億美元的商業票據，以提供進一步的資本彈性。此外，我們的業務提供了強勁的現金流，使我們能夠完成年初至今 1.9 億美元的股票回購，並維持我們對股東回報價值的承諾。

Turning to some highlights from our segments in the quarter. As anticipated, our propulsion business delivered lower sales and operating earnings versus the third quarter of 2023, but we continue to outpace the market at retail and gained 420 basis points of US outboard engine share in the quarter. We are currently producing at rates significantly below retail as OEM customers maintain reduced boat production schedules into the offseason.

轉向本季我們細分市場的一些亮點。正如預期的那樣，與2023 年第三季度相比，我們的推進業務的銷售額和營業利潤較低，但我們在零售方面繼續領先於市場，並在本季度獲得了420 個基點的美國舷外引擎份額。由於 OEM 客戶在淡季期間繼續減少船舶生產計劃，我們目前的生產速度遠低於零售水準。

Our engine parts and accessories business had another strong quarter with record operating margins of 26% and with both the product and distribution businesses contributing to margin expansion despite slightly lower sales. The completed transition of engine parts and accessories distribution to our new state-of-the-art facility in Brownsburg, Indiana continues to provide efficiency and delivery time benefits enabling modest international sales growth versus the prior year quarter.

我們的引擎零件和配件業務在本季度再次表現強勁，營業利潤率達到創紀錄的 26%，儘管銷售額略有下降，但產品和分銷業務都為利潤率擴張做出了貢獻。引擎零件和配件分銷已完成過渡到我們位於印第安納州布朗斯堡的最先進的新工廠，繼續提供效率和交貨時間優勢，使國際銷售與去年同期相比略有增長。

As anticipated, Navico Group had lower sales and operating earnings versus the third quarter of 2023, due to continued soft marine OEM order rates and retailers delaying aftermarket orders until closer to the holiday selling season, which was partially offset by slightly higher sales in the Europe, Middle East, and Africa region. Our pace of product investments is showing benefits, including at the recent Cannes Yachting Festival, where Navico Group's products were present on approximately 70% of boats exhibited. I'll provide more details on Navico Group new product introductions in a moment.

正如預期的那樣，Navico 集團的銷售額和營業利潤較2023 年第三季度有所下降，原因是船舶OEM 訂單率持續疲軟，以及零售商將售後訂單推遲到接近假日銷售季節，但歐洲銷售額的小幅成長部分抵銷了這一影響。我們的產品投資步伐正在顯現效益，包括在最近的坎城遊艇節上，Navico 集團的產品出現在大約 70% 的參展船隻上。稍後我將提供有關 Navico Group 新產品介紹的更多詳細資訊。

Finally, our boat business had sales and operating earnings below the third quarter of 2023 consistent with lower planned production levels and fewer manufacturing days due to the extended summer shutdowns. Freedom Boat Club continues to deliver steady performance with 3.5% year-to-date membership sales growth. In addition, we completed the acquisition of the South Florida franchise operations and territory, further solidifying Freedom's leadership position in the largest boating states in the US, and we expect to enter the Asian market in the near future.

最後，我們的船舶業務的銷售額和營業利潤低於 2023 年第三季度，這與計劃生產水平較低以及由於夏季停工時間延長而減少的生產天數一致。Freedom Boat Club 持續保持穩定的業績，年初至今會員銷售額成長了 3.5%。此外，我們完成了對南佛羅裡達州特許經營業務和領土的收購，進一步鞏固了Freedom在美國最大的划船州的領導地位，我們預計將在不久的將來進入亞洲市場。

Navico Group is continuing to invest in and accelerate introduction of new products developed since the acquisition. The Elite FS 10 inch and 12 inch fish finders with live sonar and full networking capability launched today to fulfill the needs of consumers who desire larger screens with premium features at an affordable price. These products are amongst more than 20 new products introduced across the Navico Group portfolio year to date. Some of these new products are launching in time for the e-commerce and holiday season, and we expect them to contribute to some operating margin re-expansion in the fourth quarter, while a number of white space products opening expanded market opportunities.

Navico 集團將繼續投資並加速推出自收購以來開發的新產品。今天推出的 Elite FS 10 吋和 12 吋魚探儀具有即時聲納和完整的網路功能，以滿足那些希望以實惠的價格獲得具有高級功能的大螢幕的消費者的需求。這些產品是 Navico 集團今年迄今推出的 20 多種新產品之一。其中一些新產品在電子商務和假期季節及時推出，我們預計它們將有助於第四季度營業利潤率的重新擴張，同時一些空白產品將打開更大的市場機會。

In the third quarter, we launched the new Lawrence Eagle Eye 9, the first entry-level fish finder in the market to offer live sonar capability. Even as we continue to rationalize its global footprint, we're also continuing to build Navico Group product development capabilities and expect to launch an additional 20 exciting new products over the next three quarters.

第三季度，我們推出了新型 Lawrence Eagle Eye 9，這是市場上首款提供即時聲納功能的入門級魚探儀。在我們繼續合理化其全球佈局的同時，我們也將繼續增強 Navico Group 的產品開發能力，並預計在未來三個季度再推出 20 款令人興奮的新產品。

Turning to external factors. While the macroeconomic landscape is stabilizing, with inflation continuing to moderate unemployment generally remaining solid, we continue to monitor the escalating geopolitical tensions and election-related activities. The downward movement in interest rates in the US and some other markets, since the beginning of the quarter is welcome and is already benefiting consumer financing costs and dealer floor plan costs. However, given the point in the current retail selling season, we do not anticipate benefits until 2025.

轉向外部因素。雖然宏觀經濟格局正在穩定，通貨膨脹繼續緩和，失業率總體保持穩定，但我們繼續監控不斷升級的地緣政治緊張局勢和與選舉相關的活動。自本季初以來，美國和其他一些市場的利率下降是受歡迎的，並且已經有利於消費者融資成本和經銷商平面圖成本。然而，考慮到當前零售銷售季節，我們預計要到 2025 年才會受益。

Dealer sentiment is generally stable but negative. Ordering remained cautious in most segments, and we do not anticipate any significant change entering the off-season curtailment holiday. Discounting and promotion levels remain elevated. However, our investments in our digital assets continue to drive solid lead generation and conversion. Despite these challenging conditions, our surveys do show some improvement in boat purchase consideration, particularly among higher household income consumers.

經銷商情緒整體穩定但消極。大多數細分市場的訂單仍保持謹慎，我們預計淡季限電假期不會有任何重大變化。折扣和促銷水平仍然很高。然而，我們對數位資產的投資繼續推動可靠的潛在客戶生成和轉換。儘管面臨這些具有挑戰性的條件，我們的調查確實顯示購買船隻的考慮有所改善，特別是在家庭收入較高的消費者中。

We continue to invest in and launched many exciting new products and technologies across all our businesses and product lines, with the intent to position us for market share gains and to ensure we have the freshest portfolio when the market returns to growth.

我們繼續在所有業務和產品線中投資並推出許多令人興奮的新產品和技術，旨在提高我們的市場份額，並確保在市場恢復成長時我們擁有最新的產品組合。

As we all know, at the end of September and early October, Florida and the Southeastern US experienced two major hurricanes. While Brunswick has a strong presence in Florida, it was only a minor direct impact to our facilities, though production and distribution halted at some locations for approximately three days for hurricane preparation and in a few cases for power outages. Brunswick supplies in the region were also largely unimpacted. Of the approximately 100 corporate and franchise owned Freedom Boat Club locations in Florida, only four remain closed for infrastructure repair exiting October.

眾所周知，9月底和10月初，佛羅裡達州和美國東南部經歷了兩次重大颶風。雖然Brunswick 在佛羅裡達州擁有強大的影響力，但它對我們的設施只產生了輕微的直接影響，儘管一些地點的生產和分銷因颶風準備而停止了大約三天，並且在少數情況下還因為停電。該地區不倫瑞克省的供應也基本上沒有受到影響。在佛羅裡達州約 100 個企業和特許經營權擁有的自由船俱樂部地點中，只有 4 個在 10 月結束後仍處於關閉狀態，以進行基礎設施維修。

Some Brunswick channel partners incurred damage to their facilities, which, in combination with direct impacts to boaters and consumers in the area will have a modest short- to mid-term impact. We estimate a full year operating earnings impact of $5 million to $10 million. Brunswick is providing financial support, supplies and essential needs to impacted employees and communities.

不倫瑞克省的一些通路夥伴的設施遭到損壞，再加上對該地區划船者和消費者的直接影響，將產生適度的中短期影響。我們預計全年營業收入影響為 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元。Brunswick 正在為受影響的員工和社區提供財務支援、物資和基本需求。

Moving now to US industry retail performance. US outboard engine industry retail units declined 10% in the third quarter versus prior year with Mercury Marine outperforming the industry at down just 1.8%. As mentioned, Mercury Marine continues to gain share. delivering approximately 50% US outboard engine market share in the third quarter.

現在轉向美國工業零售表現。美國舷外機產業第三季零售量較去年同期下降 10%，其中水星海事僅下降 1.8%，表現優於同業。如前所述，水星海事繼續擴大市場份額。第三季佔據美國舷外機市場約 50% 的份額。

We are diligently monitoring but pipeline levels and continue to under ship retail, exiting the third quarter with 10,700 units in the US pipeline, slightly below prior year. We ended the third quarter at 32 weeks on hand with premium fiberglass pipelines remaining well below historical levels. I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to provide additional comments on our financial performance and outlook.

我們正在努力監控管道水平，並繼續減少零售量，截至第三季度，美國管道中的數量為 10,700 輛，略低於去年同期。截至第三季末，我們的優質玻璃纖維管道庫存量為 32 週，仍遠低於歷史水準。我現在將把電話轉給瑞安，就我們的財務表現和前景提供更多評論。

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick's third quarter results were in line with expectations but remained below prior year due to the continued challenging US retail marine market versus the third quarter of 2023, net sales in the quarter were down 20% with adjusted operating margins of just under 10%, resulting in an adjusted EPS of $1.17. As mentioned, our results in the quarter again demonstrated the resiliency of our portfolio with our recurring revenue businesses and channels contributing a significant portion of the operating earnings this period.

謝謝戴夫，大家早安。Brunswick 第三季業績符合預期，但仍低於去年同期，原因是與2023 年第三季相比，美國零售船舶市場持續面臨挑戰，該季度淨銷售額下降20%，調整後營業利潤率略低於10%，導致調整後每股收益為 1.17 美元。如前所述，我們本季的業績再次證明了我們的投資組合的彈性，我們的經常性收入業務和管道為本期營業收入貢獻了很大一部分。

Third quarter sales were below prior year as the impact of continued lower wholesale ordering by dealers and OEMs, combined with higher discounts in certain business segments was only partially offset by annual price increases and benefits from well-received new products. Operating earnings were down versus prior year as a result of lower sales and the impact of lower absorption from decreased production levels, partially offset by new product momentum annual price increases and ongoing cost control measures throughout the enterprise.

第三季銷售額低於去年同期，因為經銷商和原始設備製造商的批發訂單持續減少以及某些業務部門較高的折扣的影響僅被年度價格上漲和廣受好評的新產品帶來的好處所部分抵消。由於銷售額下降以及生產水準下降導致的吸收率下降，營業利潤較上年有所下降，但新產品年度價格上漲的動力和整個企業持續的成本控制措施部分抵消了營業利潤。

On a year-to-date basis, sales are down 19%, resulting in an adjusted diluted EPS of $4.31, down 41%. Gross margin performance remained steady despite the top line softness, while operating expenses are down more than $15 million versus 2023 levels even after absorbing the impact of acquisitions as the entire enterprise remains focused on reducing controllable costs.

年初至今，銷售額下降 19%，調整後攤薄每股收益為 4.31 美元，下降 41%。儘管營收疲軟，毛利率表現仍保持穩定，而即使在吸收了收購的影響之後，營運費用也比 2023 年的水平下降了 1500 萬美元以上，因為整個企業仍然專注於降低可控成本。

As a reminder, we are making conscious decisions to ensure field inventory levels for all our businesses remain appropriate and have scaled production accordingly. Year-to-date production for output engines, 75-horsepower and above is down 29% versus 2023 with boat production down 34%.

提醒一下，我們正在做出明智的決定，以確保我們所有業務的現場庫存水準保持適當，並相應地擴大生產規模。今年迄今為止，75 匹馬力及以上輸出引擎的產量比 2023 年下降了 29%，其中船舶產量下降了 34%。

Now we'll look at each reporting segment, starting with our propulsion business. Sales in our propulsion segment were down 32%, with lower production rates at OEM boat manufacturers, resulting in lower engine orders in the quarter versus the prior year quarter. As Dave mentioned earlier, despite lower wholesale orders as we anticipated, we continue to take market share and outpace the overall market performance.

現在我們將研究每個報告部分，從我們的推進業務開始。我們的推進部門銷售額下降了 32%，OEM 船舶製造商的生產率較低，導致本季引擎訂單量低於去年同期。正如戴夫之前提到的，儘管批發訂單如我們預期的那樣下降，但我們繼續佔據市場份額並超越整體市場表現。

Adjusted operating margins were below prior year, primarily due to the impact of lower net sales and lower absorption from declines in production, partially offset by cost control measures. Our aftermarket-led engine parts and accessories business had another strong quarter with record adjusted operating margins, leading to strong operating earnings growth versus the third quarter of 2023 despite slightly lower year-over-year sales.

調整後的營業利潤率低於去年同期，主要是由於淨銷售額下降和產量下降吸收率下降的影響，但成本控制措施部分抵消了這一影響。我們以售後市場為主導的引擎零件業務再次表現強勁，調整後營業利潤率創歷史新高，儘管銷售額同比略有下降，但與 2023 年第三季相比，營業利潤仍強勁增長。

The completed transition to our new state-of-the-art facility in Brownsburg, Indiana continues to provide efficiency and delivery time benefits, which enabled modest international sales growth versus the third quarter of 2023. Our US-based land and sea distribution business also continues to take market share, gaining 60 basis points of share in the last 12 months culminating in September, where they delivered their highest ever single month market share of just under 50%.

我們位於印第安納州布朗斯堡的最先進的新工廠已完成過渡，繼續提供效率和交貨時間優勢，使國際銷售額較 2023 年第三季度實現小幅增長。我們位於美國的陸地和海上分銷業務也繼續佔據市場份額，在過去 12 個月中獲得了 60 個基點的份額，最終在 9 月達到了歷史最高的單月市場份額，略低於 50%。

Navico Group reported a sales decrease of 14%, primarily driven by reduced sales to marine OEMs, resulting from lower boat production levels to match retail ordering patterns partially offset by slight international sales growth and strong new product momentum. Segment operating earnings decreased as the impact from lower sales was only partially offset by lower operating expenses. Finally, our boat business had sales and operating earnings below the third quarter of 2023, consistent with lower planned production levels and fewer manufacturing days due to the annual summer shutdowns.

Navico Group 報告銷售額下降 14%，主要是由於船舶生產水平降低以匹配零售訂購模式，導致對船舶 OEM 的銷售額減少，部分被國際銷售小幅增長和強勁的新產品勢頭所抵消。部門營業利潤下降，因為銷售額下降的影響僅被營業費用下降部分抵銷。最後，我們的船舶業務的銷售額和營業利潤低於 2023 年第三季度，這與計劃生產水平較低和每年夏季停工導致的生產天數減少一致。

Sales were down 19%, resulting from lower wholesale orders as channel partners continue to order cautiously and higher incentives and discounting were only partially offset by the favorable impact of modest model year pricing. Segment operating earnings were within expectations as the impact of net sales declines and lower absorption from the reduced production was partially offset by pricing and continued cost control. Freedom Boat Club, which contributed 12% of the segment sales in the quarter continues to deliver steady membership sales growth and completed its acquisition of the Southwest Florida franchise operations and territory further solidifying its leadership position in the largest boating state in the US.

銷售額下降 19%，原因是批發訂單減少，因為通路合作夥伴繼續謹慎訂購，而較高的激勵和折扣僅被適度的車型年份定價的有利影響所部分抵消。由於淨銷售額下降和產量減少造成的吸收率下降的影響被定價和持續的成本控制部分抵消，該部門的營業利潤符合預期。Freedom Boat Club 本季度貢獻了12% 的細分市場銷售額，繼續實現穩定的會員銷售額增長，並完成了對西南佛羅裡達特許經營業務和領土的收購，進一步鞏固了其在美國最大划船州的領導地位。

Turning to guidance. We are not anticipating any change in market conditions for the fourth quarter and are responding by continuing to moderate production to ensure inventory levels in the channel remain appropriate, setting us up for what we anticipate as a stronger 2025.

轉向指導。我們預計第四季度的市場狀況不會發生任何變化，並透過繼續適度生產來應對，以確保通路中的庫存水準保持適當水平，為我們預期的 2025 年更加強勁做好準備。

In addition, we anticipate: boat dealers remaining cautious in taking on product before early 2025 boat show season, especially knowing that we have manufacturing capacity available to get them product early in the 2025 retail season. Similar to our own boat business, OEM customers of Mercury and Navico Group to moderate production resulting in softer wholesale conditions.

此外，我們預計：船舶經銷商在 2025 年船舶展季初之前接受產品時將保持謹慎態度，尤其是知道我們有製造能力可以在 2025 年零售季初期向他們提供產品。與我們自己的船舶業務類似，Mercury 和 Navico Group 的 OEM 客戶減少了生產，導致批發條件疲軟。

As Dave discussed earlier, a modest negative earnings impact from the hurricanes that impacted Florida and the Southeast US. Our recurring revenue business is continuing to remain steady, albeit with normal seasonality impacting sales volumes; and lastly, Q4 production continuing to trail 2023 levels.

正如戴夫之前討論的那樣，影響佛羅裡達州和美國東南部的颶風對利潤產生了輕微的負面影響。儘管正常的季節性因素影響了銷量，但我們的經常性收入業務仍持續保持穩定；最後，第四季產量持續落後於 2023 年的水準。

The result is the guidance you see on this slide, including net sales of $5.1 billion to $5.2 billion and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $4.50. Free cash flow continues to be solid despite the lower earnings with free cash flow conversion expected to be north of 80% for the year.

結果就是您在這張投影片中看到的指導，包括 51 億至 52 億美元的淨銷售額和約 4.50 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益。儘管收益較低，但自由現金流繼續保持穩健，預計今年自由現金流轉換率將超過 80%。

I will now pass the call back to Dave for concluding remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給戴夫，讓他作總結發言。

Before we conclude, despite the challenging market, I am thrilled to highlight the exceptional accomplishments of our teams from across the enterprise that were recognized with a record high number of awards in the third quarter. We've now surpassed the 100 major enterprise awards for the third consecutive year.

在結束之前，儘管市場充滿挑戰，但我很高興強調整個企業團隊所取得的傑出成就，這些成就在第三季度獲得了創紀錄的高獎項。我們已經連續第三年超過百強企業獎項。

Brunswick was named one of the world's best companies by Time Magazine, and we continue to win global awards for our products around the world. Sea Ray won the Moteur Boat Magazine Motorboat of the Year Award for its new 190 SPX model. Moteur Boat is the largest marine publication in France. Also, Flite recently took home four Australian Good Design Awards, including a best-in-class winner for its Marc Newson collaboration.

Brunswick 被《時代》雜誌評為全球最佳公司之一，我們的產品在世界各地不斷贏得全球獎項。Sea Ray 以其全新 190 SPX 型號榮獲 Moteur Boat 雜誌年度摩托艇獎。Moteur Boat 是法國最大的海洋出版物。此外，Flite 最近榮獲四項澳洲優秀設計獎，其中包括與 Marc Newson 合作的最佳設計獎。

During IBEX in October, Navico Group won the IBEX Innovation Award in its category for the Lenco Pro Control Boat Stabilization System and Mercury received an honorable mention in the same category for its new Precision Joystick System.

在 10 月的 IBEX 期間，Navico Group 的 Lenco Pro 控制船穩定係統榮獲該類別的 IBEX 創新獎，Mercury 的新型精密操縱桿系統在該類別中獲得了榮譽獎。

And finally, safety on and off the water remains our top priority. So it was very rewarding to receive four National Boating Safety Awards. two for our Boat Class business, and one each for our Freedom and Bayliner brands.

最後，水上和水下的安全仍然是我們的首要任務。因此，獲得四項國家划船安全獎是非常有意義的。兩個用於我們的船級業務，每個用於我們的 Freedom 和 Bayliner 品牌。

Finally, we are very excited about the upcoming Fort Lauderdale Boat Show at which we will be debuting many industry-leading new products. Boston Whaler will launch the all-new 330 Vantage, the new flagship model in the popular Vantage series. Sea Ray will show three all new models in its SDX line, all powered by Mercury outboard engines, and we will officially debut the first models in our new Navan premium adventure product line in the US.

最後，我們對即將舉行的勞德代爾堡船舶展感到非常興奮，我們將在會上推出許多業界領先的新產品。波士頓捕鯨船將推出全新 330 Vantage，這是廣受歡迎的 Vantage 系列的新旗艦型號。Sea Ray 將展示其 SDX 系列中的三款全新型號，全部由 Mercury 舷外發動機提供動力，我們將在美國正式推出新 Navan 高級冒險產品系列中的首批型號。

Thank you for your attention. We'll now open the line for questions.

感謝您的關注。我們現在將開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Matthew Boss，摩根大通。

Great. Thanks. So maybe first question, Dave, could you speak to any changes in customer demand or any changes in dealer sentiment that you've seen recently? And just if you could elaborate on the drivers of the stronger 2025 setup that you cited?

偉大的。謝謝。所以，也許第一個問題，戴夫，您能談談您最近看到的客戶需求的任何變化或經銷商情緒的任何變化嗎？您是否可以詳細說明您所引用的 2025 年更強勁格局的驅動因素？

Yeah. Thanks, Matthew. Yes, so I think retail is pacing pretty much as we expected, to down about 10%. September for us actually came in a little bit stronger. So that was nice to see. But generally, that kind of minus 10% at a consumer level is what we're seeing.

是的。謝謝，馬修。是的，所以我認為零售業的成長速度與我們的預期相當，下降了約 10%。九月對我們來說其實有點強勁。所以很高興看到這一點。但總的來說，我們所看到的消費者水準是-10%。

I wouldn't say that there are wholesale changes in OEM demand kind of across the board. But we are seeing a bit of weakening in Europe which has held up a bit better. That tends to be a little bit more of a premium market, certainly for us. There's some weakening there. And we did want to derisk a bit the balance of the year, just because we have just not quite gone under some of the OEM kind of pipeline dynamics previously.

我不會說 OEM 需求發生了全面的大規模變化。但我們看到歐洲的經濟略有疲軟，但情況有所改善。這往往是一個更高端的市場，當然對我們來說。那裡有一些削弱。我們確實想在今年剩餘的時間裡稍微冒險一下，只是因為我們之前還沒有完全了解一些 OEM 類型的管道動態。

So I mean, you've seen even in some public companies, some changes in kind of the dynamics that you'd expect for the balance of the year. So while we're not seeing a significant further production reductions. I think this is a bit more of a derisking exercise for the balance of the year. One thing that is clear at this point in the year is that we do not want to overstock pipelines. And so we're not intending to do kind of a lot of year-end programming that would potentially pull wholesale out of early 2025 and into 2024.

所以我的意思是，即使在一些上市公司中，您也看到了您對今年餘下時間的預期動態的一些變化。因此，儘管我們沒有看到進一步大幅減產。我認為這對今年剩餘時間來說更像是一種降低風險的做法。今年這個時候很明顯的一件事是，我們不想管道庫存過多。因此，我們不打算進行大量可能會導致 2025 年初到 2024 年大規模銷售的年終計畫。

So those are some considerations. There will be a modest impact from the hurricanes that went through Florida. Obviously, there are a number of people that were affected, and we all hope that they recover very quickly. But we would expect some kind of West Coast of Florida demand impacts based on hurricane impact on our channel partners and also on end consumers. You want to talk about?

這些是一些考慮因素。穿過佛羅裡達州的颶風將產生一定程度的影響。顯然，有很多人受到了影響，我們都希望他們能盡快康復。但我們預計佛羅裡達州西海岸的需求將因颶風對我們的通路夥伴和最終消費者的影響而受到影響。你想談談嗎？

Yeah. Good morning Matt, how are you? It's Ryan here. '25, I think our story is pretty similar to what it was on the July call, maybe just moved up 90 days or so. We still think that 2025 on balance is likely to see healthier economic conditions, for our consumers, lower interest rates, unemployment, it continues to be relatively low.

是的。早安，馬特，你好嗎？我是瑞安。'25，我認為我們的故事與 7 月電話會議上的內容非常相似，可能只是提前了 90 天左右。我們仍然認為，總的來說，2025 年經濟狀況可能會更健康，對於我們的消費者來說，利率較低，失業率仍然相對較低。

GDP that is continuing to be positive. Obviously, a little bit of uncertainty here in the next 90 days, certainly with the election, maybe extending into the first quarter. But all in all, macros in consumer, probably in the plus column. And then you have to ask yourself what you think the market is going to do the marine market. We're going to end the year this year at about 140,000 units here in the US, which is really only about a handful of percent above where we were on a unit basis coming out of the GFC.

GDP 繼續為正值。顯然，未來 90 天內存在一些不確定性，尤其是選舉，可能會延續到第一季。但總而言之，消費者中的宏，可能在加號列。然後你必須問自己，你認為海洋市場將如何發展。今年年底，我們在美國的銷量將達到約 14 萬輛，這實際上僅比全球金融危機後的銷量高出百分之幾左右。

And so we all think it's relatively reasonable to assume that a flat market to this year is definitely doable with probably an upside from there. And time will tell what that looks like low single digit, mid-single digit. But certainly, probably a little bit biased to the upside from a market. Certainly, when you look at retail being about 50% of replacement level, which continues to be at. And then you add into a positive pipeline dynamics.

因此，我們都認為，假設今年市場持平肯定是可行的，並且可能會出現上漲，這是相對合理的。時間會告訴我們低個位數和中個位數的情況。但當然，可能有點偏向市場的上行。當然，當你看到零售額約為更新換代水準的 50% 時，這種情況仍將持續。然後你加入到正面的管道動態中。

We -- in most scenarios, even in a flat retail market next year, we would assume that wholesale would be up for us in both boats and engines. And again, how much up would depend on where it lands at the end of this year and what you think retail does. But we still think wholesale would be up. And then lastly, I'd say there's a few things that Brunswick just is unique on. We have market share gains with Mercury with new products on the horizon, continued stable growth on engine P&A.

在大多數情況下，即使明年零售市場表現平淡，我們也會假設船舶和引擎的批發對我們來說都是有利的。再說一遍，上漲多少將取決於今年年底的情況以及你對零售業的看法。但我們仍然認為批發量將會上升。最後，我想說不倫瑞克有一些獨特之處。隨著新產品的推出，我們與 Mercury 的市場份額增加，引擎 P&A 持續穩定成長。

I don't think we talk about it enough or given enough credit this is a business that had 26% operating margins in the quarter, a record and continues to drive recurring aftermarket earnings and revenue for us. That will continue to drive stability next year. significant new products. You've heard from Dave on things that are just coming out over the next handful of months, and that will continue into next year. I think we've taken $100 million of OpEx out from our original budget this year.

我認為我們對此討論得不夠多，也沒有給予足夠的信任，該業務本季的營業利潤率為 26%，創歷史新高，並繼續為我們帶來經常性的售後收益和收入。這將繼續推動明年的穩定。重大新產品。你已經從戴夫那裡聽說了接下來幾個月即將推出的事情，並且這種情況將持續到明年。我認為今年我們已經從最初的預算中扣除了 1 億美元的營運支出。

And we're down $50 million year-to-date, and that's including absorbing about $20 million of acquisition impact. We'll be able to keep a portion of that out. Obviously, some things will come back in, including reset of comp, a tariff environment that may be a little worse. But on balance, still good from a cost perspective. And then we continue to drive cash. And I think a lot of the things we're doing here in the back half of '24 will give us cash benefits this year, but also cash benefits next year, which will be helpful certainly in whatever environment where -- that's thrown at us.

今年迄今為止，我們減少了 5,000 萬美元，其中包括吸收約 2,000 萬美元的收購影響。我們將能夠保留其中的一部分。顯然，有些事情將會回來，包括補償的重置，關稅環境可能會更糟一些。但總的來說，從成本角度來看仍然不錯。然後我們繼續推動現金。我認為我們在24 世紀後半段所做的很多事情將為我們帶來今年的現金收益，而且明年也會帶來現金收益，這在任何環境下都肯定會有所幫助- 這對我們來說是有幫助的。

So on bounce, I do think there's more reasons to think that 2025 is a growth year for us on ETS. I think it would be second half based, and second half loaded as comps get a little easier and the economics of helps the consumers seem to be better. But that's still our heads at 2025, a growth year off of '24.

因此，在反彈方面，我確實認為有更多理由認為 2025 年對我們來說是 ETS 的成長年。我認為這將是基於下半年的，下半年加載，因為比較變得更容易，並且幫助消費者的經濟效益似乎更好。但到 2025 年，這仍然是我們的想法，這是 24 年的增長年。

Great. And then maybe, Ryan, just a follow-up. So on a flat retail sales backdrop for '25, how are you thinking about pricing and promotional landscape? And any change to 20% incremental margins as we think about the front half versus the back half loading.

偉大的。瑞安，也許只是後續行動。那麼，在 25 年零售銷售持平的背景下，您如何考慮定價和促銷環境？當我們考慮前半部與後半部的負載時，以及 20% 增量邊距的任何變化。

Yeah. Matt, I would say that your incrementals of your leverage will be better than the second half, certainly, just the way that the calendarization of earnings would likely go versus 2023. But from a pricing standpoint, we are still planning very modest pricing increases across our portfolio. That would be the third year in a row that we've done very modest increases, both boats and engines, and the price to our end consumer continues to be helped by elevated discount levels as well. So you can have a lot of places where the price that the consumer is paying for the same product is actually equal to or even less than what it would have been or what it was 12 months ago because of discounting. So we will take a little bit of price at wholesale, but it will be very, very modest.

是的。馬特，我想說，你的槓桿增量肯定會好於下半年，就像收益日曆化與 2023 年相比可能會發生的情況一樣。但從定價的角度來看，我們仍然計劃對我們的產品組合進行非常適度的定價上漲。這將是我們連續第三年對船舶和引擎進行非常小幅的成長，而且我們最終消費者的價格也繼續受到折扣水準提高的幫助。因此，在許多地方，由於打折，消費者為相同產品支付的價格實際上等於甚至低於 12 個月前的價格。所以我們會採取一點批發價，但會非常非常適中。

Great. Best of luck.

偉大的。祝你好運。

James Hardiman, Citi.

花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼。

Hey. Good morning, guys. So, great line of questioning there, and I think some great answers. I wanted to dig in a little bit more on the inventory piece. So it seems like retail is playing out largely as you anticipated 90 days or so ago. And yet we've got a pretty steep cut to the fourth quarter. So should we interpret that as you expect to finish the year even lower on inventories than you previously did?

嘿。早安，夥計們。所以，這裡有很多問題，我認為有一些很好的答案。我想對庫存部分進行更多研究。因此，零售業的發展似乎與您 90 天左右之前的預期基本一致。然而，我們對第四季的預算卻大幅削減。那麼，我們是否應該將其解釋為您預計今年的庫存量將比之前更低？

I think there was some discussion about a 1,500 unit reduction for the year. Where does that number stand today? And I think the answer to this is yes, based on what you said in the previous response, but one-to-one wholesale to retail is the general sort of assumption for next year as we sit here today?

我認為有一些關於今年減少 1,500 輛的討論。今天這個數字在哪裡？我認為這個問題的答案是肯定的，根據你在之前的回應中所說的，但是一對一的批發到零售是我們今天坐在這裡的明年的一般假設？

Yeah, James, this is Ryan. I think that's a good assumption to start the start of the year. You are correct on your global boats being wholesale exceeding retail by about 1,500 units to about 1,000 in the US So pipelines, we will continue to take boats and engines out of the pipeline. You're going to see you're going to see wholesale trailing retail about 20,000 units on the engine side in the US, just as another number.

是的，詹姆斯，這是瑞安。我認為這是今年年初的一個很好的假設。您的說法是正確的，您的全球船舶批發量超過零售量約 1,500 艘，在美國約為 1,000 艘。您將看到，在美國，您將看到引擎方面的批發尾隨零售量約為 20,000 台，就像另一個數字一樣。

So I don't think there's been any change really in our view on pipelines, except to make sure that we're balancing a retail environment that's shaping up as we anticipate. The real change, as Dave said, is, I think, the last quarter is going to be just very cautious in terms of orders from our channel partners across the entire product display, and we're just seeing cautiousness because we have the ability to get them on it quickly. We can get folks products here at the beginning of the retail season. If boat shows end up outperforming maybe initial expectations, we can get boats out quickly in the beginning of the year. So all of that is leading to just cautiousness in the -- in our channel, and we'll be ready to supply product once the orders come in.

因此，我認為我們對通路的看法並沒有真正發生任何變化，除了確保我們正在平衡正在形成的零售環境，正如我們所預期的那樣。正如戴夫所說，真正的變化是，我認為，上個季度我們的通路合作夥伴在整個產品展示中的訂單將非常謹慎，我們只是看到謹慎態度，因為我們有能力讓他們盡快開始使用。我們可以在零售季節開始時在這裡購買人們的產品。如果遊艇展最終的表現可能超出最初的預期，我們可以在今年年初迅速推出船隻。因此，所有這些都導致​​我們管道中的謹慎態度，一旦訂單到來，我們將準備好供應產品。

Understood. And then to the question on 2025, it sounds like you're confident that this you'll be up next year on an earnings basis. I think you're pretty confident about that three months ago. Now '24 has come down, call it, $0.75, and so I guess, I'm trying to think through, should we be lowering them? Is the view on 2025 today any lower than it was three months ago? Or how should we think about that in light of the cut to '24. Does that impact '25 in any meaningful way?

明白了。然後關於 2025 年的問題，聽起來您對明年的盈利水平會有所上升充滿信心。我認為三個月前你對此很有信心。現在 24 已經下降了，稱之為 0.75 美元，所以我想，我正在思考，我們應該降低它們嗎？今天對 2025 年的看法是否比三個月前下降？或者說，鑑於截止到 24 週年，我們應該如何考慮這一點。這對‘25’有什麼有意義的影響嗎？

Yeah. I think, James, one way to think about it is that in the end, retail is what matters, that wholesale is a dynamic issue year-over-year, how we build pipeline, how we complete pipeline, all those things. Retail in the end is what matters. And I think to some extent, you could say that if we get out of the situation of promoting products to get the sales in. And hopefully, we'll pick up some sales early next year that might have occurred in this year.

是的。詹姆斯，我認為，思考這個問題的一種方式是，最終，零售是最重要的，批發是一個逐年動態的問題，我們如何建立管道，我們如何完成管道，所有這些事情。最終零售才是最重要的。我認為在某種程度上，你可以說，如果我們擺脫推銷產品來獲得銷售的情況。希望我們能在明年初實現一些今年可能發生的銷售。

which will help the year-over-year a bit. But I would anchor back to what retail is in the end. I think we have a decent expectation that retails will be flat. And pipelines really are incredibly low at the moment, and it's been going down and down and down. And we've been fighting probably more with -- certainly with the retail dynamic, but probably a bit more with the wholesale dynamic than we have with retail.

這將對年復一年有所幫助。但我會回到零售業的最終意義。我認為我們對零售業將持平抱持良好的預期。目前管道確實非常低，而且一直在下降，下降，下降。我們可能會更多地與零售動態作鬥爭，但與零售動態相比，批發動態可能更多。

So as long as retail holds in, I think there's every reason to believe that the balance of probability is that we will -- that will be constructive for EPS.

因此，只要零售業堅持下去，我認為就有充分的理由相信，可能性的平衡是我們會——這將對每股收益有建設性。

Got it. Thanks very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Megan Alexander, Morgan Stanley.

梅根亞歷山大，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Maybe just to follow up on James' question there. Just to clarify, are you still expecting global weeks on hand to finish this year at, I think, around 40%, which is where you were thinking last quarter? And maybe you can tell us where that is today.

你好。早安.感謝您提出我們的問題。也許只是為了跟進詹姆斯的問題。澄清一下，您是否仍然預計今年全球手頭週數將達到 40% 左右，這是您上個季度的想法？也許你可以告訴我們今天的位置。

At the end of the quarter, I think it's 32 weeks, came out of the quarter and that --

在季度末，我認為是 32 週，季度結束後--

32, yes, in the US.

32，是的，在美國。

32 in the US, we'll probably end up in a -- we'll end up in the high 30s by the end of the year. I think the exact weeks on hand is getting bit more difficult to predict because the unit implications of one week on hand is now like 200 or 300 units. So I would just say that it remains in the high 30s in the US and probably pipelines are always a little bit higher in Europe, particularly in some of the regions. So we'll probably end up in the 40-ish range globally.

在美國，我們的排名是 32，到今年年底，我們可能會達到 30 多歲。我認為準確的現有週數變得更加難以預測，因為現有一週的單位意義現在約為 200 或 300 個單位。所以我只想說，美國的管道輸送量仍然在 30 多歲左右，而歐洲的管道輸送量可能總是略高一些，特別是在某些地區。因此，全球範圍內我們最終可能會處於 40 左右的範圍內。

Right. So just to clarify, that hasn't really changed your thinking around pipelines and weeks on hand hasn't really changed since last quarter.

正確的。因此，需要澄清的是，這並沒有真正改變您對管道的看法，自上季以來，現有的周數也沒有真正改變。

No, I think that's correct. I think that we're -- we continue to be focused on setting up for 2025. And we'll make sure that we continue to monitor. And obviously, our -- we're trying to derisk the rest of the year in every way that we possibly can. And if retail -- I mean, we're essentially, we're probably 90% through the retail, probably more than 95% through retail, probably close through retail.

不，我認為這是正確的。我認為我們將繼續專注於為 2025 年做好準備。我們將確保繼續監控。顯然，我們正在盡力以各種可能的方式降低今年剩餘時間的風險。如果是零售業——我的意思是，我們基本上可能有 90% 是透過零售業實現的，可能超過 95% 透過零售業實現的，甚至可能接近透過零售業實現的。

So yeah, retail impacts are going to be pretty modest from now on. So we'll just continue to modulate production. Maybe one point would be, obviously, we talk about weeks on hand, which is a kind of global numbers, it's not as though inventory is kind of homogenous and fungible. It isn't. We are still historically low on inventory levels for premium product.

所以，是的，從現在開始，零售業的影響將相當溫和。所以我們將繼續調整生產。顯然，也許有一點是，我們談論的是手頭上的周數，這是一種全球數字，庫存並不是同質的和可替代的。事實並非如此。我們的優質產品庫存水準仍處於歷史低點。

So there is still some room to go with building premium products up to a level that we'd be probably more comfortable with as we go into 2025. But for our value and kind of core product, I think we are where we want to be.

因此，在將優質產品打造到 2025 年時我們可能會更滿意的水平方面，仍有一些空間可以實現。但就我們的價值和核心產品而言，我認為我們已經達到了我們想要的目標。

Got it. And maybe -- I know this question has been asked in the past. And maybe you can just help me understand a little bit more of if you're ending high 30s, I think that's maybe where it used to be not any worse. So in order for wholesale to be above retail next year, that seems to imply that weeks on hand are going up, so -- or would go up. Like am I thinking about that the wrong way? Can you kind of just help square why you think that there could be the potential to ship ahead of retail in 2025?

知道了。也許——我知道這個問題過去曾被問過。也許你可以幫我多了解一點，如果你已經30多歲了，我想這可能是過去情況並沒有變得更糟的地方。因此，為了明年批發量高於零售量，這似乎意味著現有周數正在增加，所以——或者將會增加。我是否以錯誤的方式思考這個問題？您能幫忙解釋為什麼您認為 2025 年有可能在零售之前出貨嗎？

Yeah. We -- I mean, we produced -- I mean, retail will be down about 10% this year, our wholesale is down 25% to 30%. Production is down by 30%, wholesale is down about 25%. So therefore flat retail next year, we'll need to reaccelerate so that wholesale would be, for example, at the down 10% level. I mean not down next year, but basically equal to retail would require a reacceleration of wholesale.

是的。我們——我的意思是，我們生產——我的意思是，今年零售量將下降約 10%，我們的批發量將下降 25% 至 30%。產量下降 30%，批發量下降約 25%。因此，明年零售業將持平，我們需要重新加速，以便批發業能夠下降 10% 的水平。我的意思是明年不會下降，但基本上等於零售，需要重新加速批發。

And we're down. So when we continue to manage down, I think we have about 13,000 units in the pipeline at the end of this year versus as last year. So we have some production catch-up to do and some inventory catch-up to do.

我們倒下了。因此，當我們繼續向下管理時，我認為與去年相比，今年年底我們有大約 13,000 個單位在籌建中。因此，我們需要趕上生產和庫存。

Yeah. Just to be very clear, Megan, the comment was that next year, wholesale in '25 could be ahead of wholesale in '24, not that wholesale '25 would be above retail in '25. That would be unlikely. I think the main point, as Dave said, is wholesale trails retail by a significant amount this year. And if we go one in one out next year for making retail equal wholesale, that would mean wholesale gains. So I just want to be very clear. We would not anticipate weeks on hand increasing next year.

是的。梅根，要非常明確的是，評論是明年，'25 的批發可能會領先於 '24 的批發，而不是 '25 的批發將高於 '25 的零售。那是不可能的。正如戴夫所說，我認為重點是今年批發大幅落後零售。如果我們明年一舉一動讓零售業與批發業持平，將意味著批發業的收益。所以我只想說得非常清楚。我們預計明年手頭週數不會增加。

Yeah. Okay. That makes sense. That's helpful and makes a lot of sense. Thank you.

是的。好的。這是有道理的。這很有幫助並且很有意義。謝謝。

from Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

來自沃爾夫研究中心的弗雷德·懷特曼。

Hey guys, I just wanted to touch on the Mercury share gains. I think you said that you gained 400 basis points in the quarter. I'm wondering if there's anything onetime in there to call out or not?

嘿夥計們，我只想談談水星股票的收益。我想您說過本季上漲了 400 個基點。我想知道裡面是否有東西可以叫出來？

Yeah. I would say, no, it's good quarter for us, but I would say the 130 basis points year-to-date is a thing to focus on really -- we mentioned that in this environment. There are a lot of unusual dynamics as OEM production modulates to protect inventory and other things in the balance of the year. So obviously, it's really exciting when we see numbers like 400 basis points, and we have a great product line. especially since our competitors have launched some products in the last year or so, it's nice to see us continuing to do well on share.

是的。我想說，不，這對我們來說是一個很好的季度，但我想說，今年迄今為止的 130 個基點確實是值得關注的事情——我們在這種環境下提到過這一點。隨著 OEM 生產的調整以保護庫存和年度剩餘時間的其他事項，出現了許多不尋常的動態。顯然，當我們看到 400 個基點這樣的數字時，我們真的很興奮，而且我們擁有很棒的產品線。特別是我們的競爭對手在去年左右推出了一些產品，很高興看到我們在份額方面繼續表現出色。

We expect to continue to do well in share at the upcoming Fort Lauderdale Boat Show. But I would probably anchor a bit more on the 130 basis points year to date.

我們期望在即將舉行的勞德代爾堡遊艇展上繼續取得良好的份額。但我可能會更專注於今年迄今為止的 130 個基點。

Okay. That's fair. And shifting to Navico. Ryan, I think you said that you're expecting that to be up year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and I know that there's been some timing shifts just from a retailer aftermarket perspective with the holiday. But do you think that that's a big inflection?

好的。這很公平。並轉移到納維科。瑞安，我想你說過你預計第四季度的銷售額將同比增長，而且我知道，從零售商售後市場的角度來看，假期期間出現了一些時間變化。但你認為這是一個很大的改變嗎？

Do we feel like things have sort of stabilized or bottomed out there? And should we be positioned for growth into the future as well? Or is that not the right way to think about it?

我們是否覺得事情已經穩定或觸底？我們是否也應該為未來的成長做好準備？還是這不是正確的思考方式？

No, I think that's fair. And Fred, I don't think it's a huge inflection. I mean, Navico has showed some stability across the board. You saw some really actually pretty stable aftermarket sales in the OEM side, both marine and RV does continue to be down, which should be surprising given the OEM sluggishness around the rest of the portfolio. But Q4 has the opportunity to be kind of marginally up in sales and delivering better earnings and better margin.

不，我認為這是公平的。弗雷德，我不認為這是一個巨大的改變。我的意思是，Navico 在各方面都表現出了一定的穩定性。你看到 OEM 方面的售後市場銷售確實相當穩定，船舶和房車確實繼續下降，考慮到 OEM 圍繞產品組合的其餘部分的低迷，這應該令人驚訝。但第四季的銷售額有機會略有上升，並帶來更好的收益和利潤。

I think the new products are really what drives the Navico success from here on out. It's not going to be overnight. It's not going to be immediate, but additional new products that continue to come out, certainly ahead of Black Friday, which for Navico will be an important kind of milestone does give us some confidence in the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't expect a huge inflection but certainly stability quarter-over-quarter growth on top line and earnings and margin from third quarter to fourth quarter would be fair to expect. And then from a year-over-year comparison, probably a little bit of the same, although the fourth quarter last year is obviously a tougher comparison than the third quarter of this year.

我認為新產品才是 Navico 今後成功的真正動力。這不會是一朝一夕的事。這不會是立竿見影的，但更多的新產品會繼續推出，當然在黑色星期五之前，這對 Navico 來說將是一個重要的里程碑，確實給了我們對第四季度的一些信心。但我預計第三季到第四季的營收和利潤和利潤率不會有巨大的變化，但肯定會保持穩定的季度成長。然後從同比比較來看，可能有點相同，儘管去年第四季顯然比今年第三季更難比較。

Fair enough. Thank you.

很公平。謝謝。

Craig Kennison, Baird.

克雷格·肯尼森，貝爾德。

Hey good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Dave, you mentioned the survey that you conducted with boat consumers. I'm just wondering if you could shed some light on any more details about purchase intent. And I'm curious how predictive that survey has been in the past?

嘿早安。感謝您提出我的問題。戴夫，您提到了您對船舶消費者的調查。我只是想知道您是否可以透露有關購買意向的更多詳細資訊。我很好奇這項調查過去的預測能力如何？

Yeah. Hi Craig. Yeah, we do monthly surveys of around about 400 boaters and intending boaters, and we understand what the demographics are. So we try and look at patterns of behavior. We asked them a number of questions about what's influencing that behavior. And this time, I think we saw kind of core and value boaters. Purchase intent remains stable, but higher household income go up.

是的。嗨克雷格。是的，我們每月對大約 400 名划船者和打算划船者進行調查，我們了解人口統計數據。所以我們嘗試觀察行為模式。我們向他們詢問了一些關於影響這種行為的因素的問題。這一次，我認為我們看到了一些核心和價值的船主。購買意願維持穩定，但家庭收入增加。

I don't offhand have exactly the kind of percentages with me. I would say that there's clearly going to be some element of latent demand building at the moment. But people are just on the fence this year, contemplating higher interest rates, contemplating uncertainty in the trajectory of the interest rates, contemplating the election outcomes and other things. So I do think once we get on the other side of that, we will see some latent demand. And I would expect that to come through first in the more premium segment, which is essentially what we're beginning to see.

我手頭上並沒有確切的百分比。我想說，目前顯然存在一些潛在需求的成長因素。但今年人們只是持觀望態度，考慮更高的利率，考慮利率軌跡的不確定性，考慮選舉結果和其他事情。所以我確實認為，一旦我們走到了另一邊，我們就會看到一些潛在的需求。我預計這將首先出現在更高端的細分市場，這基本上就是我們開始看到的。

So possibly the more positive sentiment was driven by the third quarter interest rate cuts. Those -- the 50 basis point cut that's translated to about 100 basis points of cuts in boat financing rates, so loans over $100,000 now are down to about 7.5%. They were in the 8.5% to 9% range previously. So we have seen good things generally happening in terms of financing costs. And then obviously, there are additional promotions available.

因此，更積極的情緒可能是由第三季降息推動的。這些——50個基點的削減意味著船舶融資利率削減約100個基點，因此超過10萬美元的貸款現在已降至約7.5%。之前他們的比例在 8.5% 到 9% 之間。因此，我們看到融資成本普遍發生了好事。顯然，還有額外的促銷活動。

So we are excited about Fort Lauderdale coming up. That's a premium show, and it will be good to see how consumers behave at that show.

因此，我們對勞德代爾堡的到來感到興奮。這是一場優質展會，很高興看到消費者在展會上的表現。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

Mike Swartz, Truist Securities.

麥克‧斯沃茨 (Mike Swartz)，Truist 證券公司。

Hey guys, good morning. Maybe just first question. And I think you've talked about this a number of times, but the engine parts and accessories business, the big step up in operating margin in the quarter. I think you called out is the highest quarterly margin in company history. But can you just give us a sense of, I guess, how much of that is sustainable? I know there's a lot of seasonality here.

嘿夥計們，早安。也許只是第一個問題。我想你已經多次談論過這個問題，但引擎零件和配件業務，本季營業利潤率大幅提高。我認為你所說的是公司歷史上最高的季度利潤率。但我想你能否讓我們了解其中有多少是永續的？我知道這裡有很多季節性。

So I don't expect 25%, 26% margins every quarter. But just give us a sense of like how much of that is sustainable structural versus maybe some -- there's some intra-quarter onetime-ish type thing that you saw?

所以我預計每季的利潤率不會達到 25%、26%。但只要讓我們了解一下，其中有多少是可持續的結構性的，而不是一些——你看到了一些季度內一次性的事情嗎？

Yeah, Mike, I'll take this one. Yeah, I mean, obviously, great quarter, just highlighting the stability here of this business. I do think this is a business that's marched right up to 20% operating margins for the full year. And obviously, that's a pretty good milestone. A lot of it just depends on mix within the distribution versus product side.

是的，麥克，我要這個。是的，我的意思是，顯然，這是一個很棒的季度，只是強調了業務的穩定性。我確實認為該業務全年營業利潤率將高達 20%。顯然，這是一個非常好的里程碑。這在很大程度上取決於分銷與產品方面的混合。

Obviously, the products part of the business pulled some really strong gross and operating margins. And distribution, although it's a pretty strong third-party distribution business, it is still a third party. So it's a sell-through business where margins are lower. So a lot of the quarterly dynamics depends on where you stand from a distribution versus product mix standpoint. I will say the one thing that's really shown through is the transition of Brownsburg, Indiana is complete, and we are now getting more product out quicker at a better cost.

顯然，該業務的產品部分拉動了一些非常強勁的毛利率和營業利潤率。至於分銷，雖然它是一個相當強大的第三方分銷業務，但它仍然是第三方。因此，這是一項利潤率較低的直銷業務。因此，許多季度動態取決於您從分銷與產品組合的角度來看的立場。我要說的是，真正表現出來的一件事是印第安納州布朗斯堡的過渡已經完成，我們現在正在以更好的成本更快地生產更多產品。

And all three of those things are beneficial to margins, right? More product out quicker and being able to go around the world solely to our international customers. So yes, it's fair to say you're not going to see 26% every quarter. But certainly, where there's value, we now know that we can get the product out at the right cost and get it out quickly so that our general partners have what they need. So you should anticipate continued margin, stability and growth there as we go into '25.

這三件事都有利於利潤，對吧？更快地推出更多產品，並且能夠僅向我們的國際客戶運送到世界各地。所以，是的，可以公平地說，每個季度您都不會看到 26%。但當然，只要有價值，我們現在知道我們可以以適當的成本並快速推出產品，以便我們的普通合作夥伴擁有他們需要的東西。因此，當我們進入 25 世紀時，您應該預期那裡會有持續的利潤、穩定性和成長。

We've taken quite a bit of cost out of that business. It's very efficient. I would say that the -- maybe the weather in the late summer and fall has been pretty nice. I don't actually even in October, we're seeing some really good voting activity. So that's possibly a part of a boost as well.

我們已經從這項業務中削減了不少成本。這是非常有效的。我想說——也許夏末和秋季的天氣相當好。事實上，即使在十月，我們也看到了一些非常好的投票活動。所以這也可能是推動的一部分。

Okay. Great. And just following up on, I think, Ryan, you had mentioned before, you've taken out about $100 million costs from business this year. How much of that should we expect to come back in, let's say, a flattish retail environment?

好的。偉大的。我想，瑞安，您之前提到過，今年您已經從業務中扣除了大約 1 億美元的成本。比如說，在一個平淡的零售環境中，我們應該預期有多少這樣的回報？

Yeah. And $100 million versus our initial budget, right? So the number to think about from 2023 is more like 50 or so. But again, that's absorbing 20 of OpEx from Flite and Freedom Boat Club deals that were completed in '23, and we have the cost in '24. I would think that you could keep $30 million, $40 million of the FX as stays out until further notice.

是的。與我們最初的預算相比，還有 1 億美元，對吧？因此，從 2023 年開始考慮的數字更像是 50 左右。但同樣，這吸收了 20 年 Flite 和 Freedom Boat Club 交易中 20 年完成的營運支出，我們的成本是 24 年的。我認為你可以保留 3000 萬美元、4000 萬美元的外匯，直到另行通知為止。

Now these are things that we would like a lot of other things we'd like to add back in over time. It's things that make the businesses run better, whether it's IT or sales and marketing support. So it's not like we'd like it out forever. But certainly, as you look at early '25 and really '25 in general, $30 million to $40 million of that can stay out until the market picks back up, and we're able to generate more sales and cover those costs.

現在，這些是我們希望隨著時間的推移我們希望添加回來的許多其他內容。正是這些因素使企業運作得更好，無論是 IT 還是銷售和行銷支援。所以我們並不希望它永遠消失。但可以肯定的是，當你看看 25 世紀早期和真正的 25 世紀總體情況時，其中 3000 萬到 4000 萬美元可以保留下來，直到市場回升，我們能夠產生更多銷售額並覆蓋這些成本。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Xian Siew, BNP Paribas.

蕭賢，法國巴黎銀行。

Hi guys. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the 4Q propulsion margin. It seems like implied to be pretty low relative to the historical. I'm just curious on what kind of driving that step down in propulsion margin next quarter? And how you think about, I guess, the bounce back next year or potential bounce back.

嗨，大家好。謝謝你的提問。我想問4Q推進裕度。相對於歷史水平，這似乎意味著相當低。我只是好奇下個季度推進裕度下降會受到什麼樣的驅動？我猜你如何看待明年的反彈或潛在的反彈。

Yeah. I think volumes will be down like 25% year over year. So absorption is going to be a big component of margins there. I would say that mix is generally staying at holding in pretty well. So probably absorption is the biggest component of that.

是的。我認為銷量將年減 25% 左右。因此，吸收率將成為利潤率的重要組成部分。我想說的是，混合動力總體上保持得很好。所以吸收可能是其中最大的組成部分。

It definitely is. And we were still filling pipelines of 175 to 300 horsepower in Q4 of last year. We're more -- we're one in one out with retail this year. So that's that's the other main driver. But production in fund like rightfully is down significantly in the fourth quarter because we want to protect an inventory level to be ready for '25 and that does carry with it a negative absorption that's hard to overcome, and you don't have the volume.

絕對是。去年第四季我們仍在填充175至300馬力的管道。今年我們與零售業是一對一的。這就是另一個主要驅動力。但基金的產量在第四季度大幅下降，因為我們希望保護庫存水平，為 25 年做好準備，這確實帶來了難以克服的負面吸收，而且你沒有數量。

Yeah. On a more positive note, you can't take headcount out exactly when you want to take it out. It takes a little bit of time. So some of the headwinds here are trailing headwinds that won't recur in the first quarter of next year, for example, when the headcount will be out. So there's a little bit of a transition element in here that makes absorption incrementally worse that it might have been had everything been kind of instantaneously corrected for lower volume.

是的。從更積極的角度來看，您無法在想要刪除員工人數時準確地刪除員工人數。這需要一點時間。因此，這裡的一些不利因素是明年第一季不會再出現的不利因素，例如，當員工人數結束時。因此，這裡有一點過渡元素，會使吸收逐漸變差，如果一切都立即糾正為較低的體積，情況可能會變得更糟。

Okay. Got it. And then on Europe, I think you mentioned weeks on hand are a bit higher internationally, you saw a bit of weakening there. Any kind of thoughts on where you would like to take, I guess, international pipeline? And do we need to kind of destock further into next year?

好的。知道了。然後在歐洲，我想你提到國際上現有的周數有點高，你看到那裡有一些疲軟。我猜你想把國際管道帶到哪裡？明年我們是否需要進一步減少庫存？

International is always a little bit higher, and we are doing exactly the same thing for Europe that we're doing over here in terms of controlling our pipelines to the overall right levels. If you think about the -- I mean, in Europe -- in the US, we produce a lot of our product close to where we sell it. In Europe, that's not quite the case. So we just have a lot more inventory around just for transit and other things. So we're not in an unusual situation on pipelines but continuing to take the right level of action.

國際總是有點高，我們正在為歐洲做同樣的事情，我們在這裡做的就是將我們的管道控制在整體正確的水平。如果你想想——我的意思是，在歐洲——在美國，我們的許多產品都是在我們銷售的地方附近生產的。在歐洲，情況並非如此。因此，我們有更多的庫存用於運輸和其他用途。因此，我們在管道方面並沒有遇到不尋常的情況，但我們會繼續採取適當的行動。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Joe Altobello, Raymond James.

喬·阿爾托貝洛，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey guys, good morning. Just want to go back to inventory for a second. I think you mentioned you're at 32 weeks here in the US and year-end, you're expecting to be high 30s. I think you were at 37 last year. If you look at other industries, whether it's RVs or power sports, they all seem to be moving towards a more efficient inventory model and holding less weeks on hand. Are you seeing any pushback from your dealer partners, if that's the case?

嘿夥計們，早安。只是想再回顧一下庫存。我想你提到你在美國已經 32 週了，到年底你預計會達到 30 多歲。我想你去年37歲了。如果你看看其他行業，無論是房車還是動力運動，它們似乎都在朝著更有效率的庫存模式邁進，並減少現有庫存週數。如果是這樣的話，您是否看到經銷商夥伴有任何阻力？

I think we collaborate, Joe, with our dealer partners in setting inventory levels. I think what is essentially happening is because the market is so low at the moment. There are other considerations in terms of inventory quantities that might be present at a much higher market level. A much higher market level, we might look just globally at weeks on hand or at least certainly by segment weeks on hand. But if you -- now if you think about the level of inventory at around 13,000 units, it is low.

喬，我認為我們與我們的經銷商合作夥伴合作設定庫存水準。我認為本質上發生的事情是因為目前市場太低了。在庫存數量方面還有其他考慮因素可能會出現在更高的市場水準上。在更高的市場水平上，我們可能會只關注全球現有的幾週，或至少肯定按現有的細分市場週數。但如果你現在想想大約 13,000 件的庫存水平，那就很低了。

On an absolute basis, it's low, which means that other considerations like how many boats we have per dealer become much more important. There's a certain threshold. We have probably more than 1,000 dealer locations in the US. So if they all have 10 boats, then it's 10,000 boats, and we want them to have a good representation of our product lines. Many of them carry multiple product lines.

從絕對角度來看，它很低，這意味著其他考慮因素（例如每個經銷商擁有多少艘船）變得更加重要。有一定的門檻。我們在美國可能擁有 1,000 多個經銷商分行。因此，如果他們都有 10 艘船，那麼就是 10,000 艘船，我們希望他們能很好地代表我們的產品線。其中許多擁有多種產品線。

So as inventory levels become lower, I would say they are not going to continue to fall as fast as they might otherwise. In terms of efficiency, I don't -- maybe there are other factors at play in other industries, but for us, dealers, in a lot of cases, are specifying option content and colors and stuff on inventory. So we need to align them with specific dealer orders. So I am not anticipating as we saw in COVID where dealers were selling production slots versus product on the ground that we are going to see a statistically significant change in kind of long-term weeks on hand.

因此，隨著庫存水準下降，我想說它們不會繼續像原本可能的那樣快速下降。就效率而言，我不認為——也許其他行業還有其他因素在起作用，但對我們來說，經銷商在許多情況下會指定選項內容、顏色以及庫存中的東西。因此，我們需要將它們與特定的經銷商訂單保持一致。因此，我預計不會像我們在新冠疫情中看到的那樣，經銷商在銷售生產時段而不是產品，因為我們將在現有的長期週內看到統計上的顯著變化。

Okay. That's helpful. And just kind of a follow-up on that. Can you speak to the decision that you made to pull back on promotions in Q4. I think you wanted to avoid what you call excessive wholesale pull forward. Were you seeing an indication that dealers were actually looking to take orders up in Q4?

好的。這很有幫助。這只是對此的後續行動。您能否談談您在第四季取消促銷活動的決定？我認為你想避免所謂的過度批發拉動。您是否看到經銷商實際上希望在第四季度接受訂單的跡象？

No, I don't think we particularly were. But essentially, a couple of things to think about. I mean I'd rather be selling dealers boats when there's pull for them versus pushing them at dealers. And I think as soon as dealers feel they don't have enough inventory, there'll be plenty of pulp. And then the other thing is we don't want to get into the situation of learn behaviors where dealers just waiting for the next promotion, whatever it is, to do orders. We have to kind of break that habit. And now is a good time to do it, I think.

不，我不認為我們特別是。但本質上，有幾件事需要考慮。我的意思是，我寧願在有需求時向經銷商出售船隻，而不是將它們推向經銷商。我認為，一旦經銷商覺得他們沒有足夠的庫存，就會有大量的紙漿。另一件事是我們不想陷入學習行為的情況，經銷商只是等待下一次促銷，無論是什麼，下訂單。我們必須打破這種習慣。我認為現在是這樣做的好時機。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

At this time, I would like to turn the call back over to Dave for some concluding remarks.

此時，我想將電話轉回給戴夫，讓他做一些總結性演講。

So thank you all very much for your questions, really appreciate it. I think given the market conditions, I think we've used our controllable levers to come close to maximizing the potential of our business in Q3 and 2024 and also position us very well in terms of inventory levels in a very fresh product line for 2025. Obviously, Hurricane Helene and Milton were an additional unwanted headwind in the quarter, but the direct impacts to our business were relatively minor. We do hope that the individuals and families and businesses that were more severely impacted by those hurricanes recover quickly. As you will have seen in the quarter, we executed a sequence of senior leadership changes with the intention of broadening the experience of our most senior leaders and also accelerating some aspects of the Navico Group strategy.

非常感謝大家提出的問題，非常感謝。我認為考慮到市場狀況，我們已經利用可控槓桿在第三季和 2024 年接近最大化我們的業務潛力，並且在 2025 年非常新鮮的產品線的庫存水平方面也使我們處於非常有利的位置。顯然，颶風海倫和米爾頓是本季額外的不利阻力，但對我們業務的直接影響相對較小。我們確實希望受颶風影響較嚴重的個人、家庭和企業盡快恢復。正如您在本季度所看到的，我們執行了一系列高階領導層變動，旨在擴大我們最高級領導者的經驗，並加速 Navico 集團策略的某些方面。

So pleased to get that done and the new leaders are settling in extremely well with a lot of enthusiasm. So I'm very excited about that. We're also very much looking forward to attending the Fort Lauderdale show next week where, as I said, we'll debut a big range of exciting new products from a number of our brands that we keep investing in those products to set up for 2025. Thank you very much.

很高興能完成這項工作，新的領導者也非常熱情地融入其中。所以我對此感到非常興奮。我們也非常期待參加下週的勞德代爾堡展會，正如我所說，我們將在展會上推出一系列令人興奮的新產品，這些產品來自我們的許多品牌，我們將繼續投資這些產品，為這些產品做好準備。非常感謝。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。