Banco Bbva Argentina SA (BBAR) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to BBVA Argentina's Fourth Quarter 2022 Fiscal Year Results Conference Call. We would like to inform you that this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    早上好,女士們,先生們,感謝您的等待。此時,我們歡迎大家參加 BBVA Argentina 2022 財年第四季度業績電話會議。我們想通知您,正在記錄此事件。 (操作員說明)

  • First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under U.S. federal securities law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2021 filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

    首先,我要指出的是,本次電話會議中的一些陳述可能是美國聯邦證券法 1933 年證券法第 27A 節安全港條款含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響,這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在 BBVA Argentina 向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2021 財年 20-F 表格年度報告中。

  • Today with us, we have Mrs. Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO; Mrs. Ines Lanusse, IRO; and Ms. Belén Fourcade, Investor Relations. Ms. Fourcade, you may begin your conference.

    今天,我們有首席財務官 Carmen Morillo Arroyo 夫人; IRO Ines Lanusse 夫人;和 Belén Fourcade 女士,投資者關係部。 Fourcade 女士,您可以開始您的會議了。

  • María Belén Fourcade - IR Officer

    María Belén Fourcade - IR Officer

  • Good morning, and welcome to BBVA Argentina's Fourth Quarter and 2022 Fiscal Year Results Conference Call. Today's webinar will be supported by a slide presentation available on our Investor Relations website on the Financial Information section.

    早上好,歡迎來到 BBVA Argentina 第四季度和 2022 財年業績電話會議。今天的網絡研討會將得到我們投資者關係網站“財務信息”部分的幻燈片演示的支持。

  • Speaking during today's call will be Ines Lanusse, our Investor Relations Officer, and Carmen Morillo Arroyo, our Chief Financial Officer, who will be available for the Q&A session. Please note that starting January 1, 2020, as per Central Bank regulations, we have begun reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting pursuant to IFRS rule IAS 29. For ease of comparability, 2021 and 2022 figures have been restated to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through December 31, 2022. Now let me turn the call over to Ines.

    在今天的電話會議上發言的是我們的投資者關係官 Ines Lanusse 和我們的首席財務官 Carmen Morillo Arroyo,他們將出席問答環節。請注意,從 2020 年 1 月 1 日起,根據中央銀行的規定,我們已開始根據 IFRS 規則 IAS 29 報告應用惡性通貨膨脹會計的結果。為便於比較,已重述 2021 年和 2022 年的數據以反映通貨膨脹的累積影響調整到 2022 年 12 月 31 日的每個時期。現在讓我把電話轉給伊內斯。

  • Ines Lanusse - IR Officer

    Ines Lanusse - IR Officer

  • Thank you, Belén, and thank you all of you for joining us today. As we are all aware, in spite of a less favorable global context and a local environment defined by the difficulty of correcting current macroeconomic distortions and meeting the established objectives in the loan agreement reached with the IMF, economic activity has shown dynamism in 2022.

    謝謝你,Belén,也感謝大家今天加入我們。眾所周知,儘管全球環境和當地環境不太有利,難以糾正當前的宏觀經濟扭曲並實現與國際貨幣基金組織達成的貸款協議中的既定目標,但經濟活動在 2022 年顯示出活力。

  • According to BBVA Research, evidence suggests that GDP will increase 5% in 2022. Nonetheless, the global context, high local inflation, financial volatility, uncertainty about economic policy and the limited leeway to adopt new stimulus measures, legitimate the expectations of a contraction of GDP in 2023.

    根據 BBVA Research 的數據,有證據表明 2022 年 GDP 將增長 5%。儘管如此,全球背景、當地高通脹、金融波動、經濟政策的不確定性以及採取新刺激措施的餘地有限,使經濟收縮的預期合理化。 2023 年的國內生產總值。

  • Referring to BBVA Argentina's performance, a better operating income in 2022 was the product of an improvement in interest income and interest from government securities.

    參考 BBVA Argentina 的業績,2022 年更好的營業收入是利息收入和政府證券利息增加的產物。

  • BBVA Argentina has a corporate responsibility with society, characteristic of the bank's business model, which encourages inclusion, financial education and supports scientific research and culture. The bank works with the highest integrity, long-term vision and best practices and is present through the BBVA Group in the main sustainability indexes.

    BBVA Argentina 對社會負有企業責任,這是銀行商業模式的特點,鼓勵包容、金融教育並支持科學研究和文化。該銀行以最高的誠信度、長遠眼光和最佳實踐開展工作,並通過 BBVA 集團出現在主要可持續發展指數中。

  • Moving into business dynamics. As you can see on Slide 3 of the website presentation, our service offering has evolved in such a way that by the end of December 2022, retail digital client penetration reached 62%, remaining stable from a year back, while that of retail mobile clients reached 55% from 53% at the same period of the last year. The response on the side of customers has been satisfactory, and we are convinced this is about to pursue in the aim of sustaining and expanding our competitive position in the financial system.

    進入商業動態。正如您在網站演示文稿的幻燈片 3 中看到的那樣,我們的服務產品已經發展到 2022 年 12 月底,零售數字客戶端滲透率達到 62%,與一年前相比保持穩定,而零售移動客戶端從去年同期的 53% 上升到 55%。客戶方面的反應令人滿意,我們相信這是為了維持和擴大我們在金融體系中的競爭地位而追求的目標。

  • Retail digital sales have increased from 80% in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 83.9% of units and represent 56.9% of the bank total sales measured in monetary value versus 52.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021.

    零售數字銷售額從 2022 年第四季度的 80% 增加到單位的 83.9%,佔銀行總銷售額的 56.9%(以貨幣價值衡量),而 2021 年第四季度為 52.9%。

  • New customer acquisition through digital channels reached 72% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from 66% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The bank actively monitors its business, financial conditions and operating results in the aim of keeping a competitive position to face contextual changes.

    通過數字渠道獲得的新客戶從 2021 年第四季度的 66% 增加到 2022 年第四季度的 72%。該銀行積極監控其業務、財務狀況和經營業績,以保持競爭地位以應對環境變化。

  • Moving to Slide 4. I will now comment on the bank's fourth quarter 2022 and 2022 fiscal year financial results. BBVA Argentina's fourth quarter 2022 net income was ARS 17.1 billion, increasing 50.9% quarter-over-quarter. This implied a quarterly ROE of 19.4% and a quarterly ROA of 3.6%.

    轉到幻燈片 4。我現在將評論該銀行 2022 年第四季度和 2022 財年的財務業績。 BBVA Argentina 2022 年第四季度淨收入為 171 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 50.9%。這意味著季度 ROE 為 19.4%,季度 ROA 為 3.6%。

  • Operating income in fourth quarter 2022 was ARS 61.7 billion, 8.6% above the ARS 56.8 billion recorded in the third quarter of 2022. This is mainly explained by greater interest income driven by a higher monetary policy rate compared to the previous quarter, which allowed net operating income to increase more than operating expenses. This effect was partially offset by an increase in: one, other operating income; two, loan loss allowances; and three, a fall in foreign exchange and gold gains.

    2022 年第四季度的營業收入為 617 億阿根廷比索,比 2022 年第三季度的 568 億阿根廷比索高出 8.6%。這主要是由於與上一季度相比更高的貨幣政策利率推動利息收入增加,這使得淨收入增加營業收入增幅大於營業費用。這一影響被以下方面的增加部分抵消:一,其他營業收入;二、貸款損失準備金;第三,外彙和黃金收益下降。

  • It is worth mentioning that in fourth quarter 2022, income from net monetary position decreased 12% given a lower quarterly inflation, which changed from 22% in the third quarter of 2022 to 17.3% in the fourth quarter.

    值得一提的是,2022年第四季度,由於季度通脹較低,淨貨幣頭寸收入下降了12%,從2022年第三季度的22%變為第四季度的17.3%。

  • BBVA Argentina 2022 net income was ARS 57.9 billion, 40.5% higher than the ARS 41.2 billion reported in 2021. This implies an accumulated annualized ROE of 17.5% and an ROA of 3% in 2022 compared to an accumulated annualized ROE of 13.5% and an ROA of 2% in 2021. The increment in the bank's operating income is mainly explained by: one, an increase in interest income, mostly due to an increase in the position and yield of Central Bank instruments; and two, better net income from financial instruments at fair value through P&L explained by an increase in the position of the LELIQ and inflation-linked national treasury bonds and by the sale of the remaining participation of the bank in Prisma during the first quarter of 2022.

    BBVA Argentina 2022 年淨收入為 579 億阿根廷比索,比 2021 年報告的 412 億阿根廷比索高出 40.5%。這意味著 2022 年累計年化淨資產收益率為 17.5% 和 3%,而累計年化淨資產收益率為 13.5% 和2021年ROA為2%。銀行營業收入增加的主要原因是:一是利息收入增加,主要是央行工具頭寸和收益率增加所致;第二,通過損益表以公允價值計算的金融工具淨收入增加,原因是 LELIQ 和與通脹掛鉤的國債頭寸增加,以及銀行在 2022 年第一季度出售了 Prisma 的剩餘股份.

  • Turning into the P&L lines in Slide 5 and 6. Net interest income for the fourth quarter 2022 was ARS 106.1 billion, increasing 18.1% quarter-over-quarter. In fourth quarter 2022, interest income in monetary terms increased more than interest expenses, mainly due to: one, greater income from government securities; two, an increase in income from interest from loans, in particular, credit cards and discounted instruments; and three, increase in income from repo. The items mentioned take place in the context of increasing interest rate, resulting from an increase in the monetary policy rate by the Central Bank as well as an increase in inflation rate.

    轉到幻燈片 5 和 6 中的損益表。2022 年第四季度的淨利息收入為 1061 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 18.1%。 2022年四季度貨幣利息收入增幅大於利息支出,主要原因是:一是國債收入增加;第二,貸款利息收入增加,特別是信用卡和貼現票據;三是增加回購收入。上述事項發生在利率上升的背景下,央行提高貨幣政策利率,通脹率上升。

  • In fourth quarter 2022, interest income totaled ARS 201.7 billion, increasing ARS 19.2% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Quarterly increase is mainly driven by: one, higher income from government securities, both from an increase in the nominal rate and the volume and the position of LELIQ; two, an increase in interest from loans, mainly credit cards and discounted instruments, especially due to the incremented interest rate and higher activity; and three, an increase in repo premiums.

    2022 年第四季度,利息收入總計 2017 億阿根廷比索,比 2022 年第三季度增長 19.2%。季度增長主要受以下因素推動:一是政府證券收入增加,名義利率和交易量均有所增加以及 LELIQ 的職位;第二,貸款利息增加,主要是信用卡和貼現工具,特別是由於利率上升和活動增加;第三,回購溢價增加。

  • Interest expenses totaled ARS 95.6 billion, denoting a 20.4% increase quarter-over-quarter. Quarterly increase is described by higher time deposit expenses, although slightly offset by a fall in CER/UVA adjustment expenses, the latter connected to CER-linked time deposits. Interest from time deposits, including investment accounts, explains 79.9% of interest expenses versus 70.9% in the previous quarter.

    利息支出總計 956 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 20.4%。季度增長的原因是定期存款費用增加,儘管被 CER/UVA 調整費用的下降略微抵消,後者與 CER 掛鉤的定期存款有關。來自定期存款(包括投資賬戶)的利息占利息支出的 79.9%,而上一季度為 70.9%。

  • In 2022, net interest income totaled ARS 339.4 billion, led by interest income from higher position and higher yields from public and central bank securities.

    2022 年,淨利息收入總計 3394 億阿根廷比索,主要來自公共和中央銀行證券較高頭寸和較高收益率的利息收入。

  • Net income as of the fourth quarter of 2022 totaled ARS 10.2 billion, decreasing 4.9% quarter-over-quarter.

    截至 2022 年第四季度的淨收入總計 102 億阿根廷比索,環比下降 4.9%。

  • In the fourth quarter of 2022, fee income totaled ARS 19.8 billion, increasing 2.1% quarter-over-quarter. The quarterly increase is mainly explained by fees from credit cards growing 4.2%, mostly due to more activity and consumption and fees linked to loans.

    2022 年第四季度,手續費收入總計 198 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 2.1%。季度增長的主要原因是信用卡費用增長了 4.2%,主要是由於更多的活動和消費以及與貸款相關的費用。

  • Regarding fee expenses, these totaled ARS 9.6 billion, increasing 10.8% quarter-over-quarter. Higher expenses in the quarter are partially explained by expenditures linked to credit and debit cards due to higher client acquisition costs, processing fees and higher expenditures in seasonal commercial promotions.

    在費用支出方面,總計 96 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 10.8%。本季度支出增加的部分原因是與信用卡和借記卡相關的支出,因為客戶獲取成本、手續費和季節性商業促銷支出增加。

  • Net fee income in 2022 remained stable with an increase of 1.4% as a result of a 6.4% drop in income and a 15.2% drop in expenses. The behavior in fees was mainly explained by the change of the credit card loyalty program from Lat Am to Puntos BBVA.

    由於收入下降 6.4% 和支出下降 15.2%,2022 年的淨費用收入保持穩定,增長 1.4%。收費行為主要是由於信用卡忠誠度計劃從 Lat Am 更改為 Puntos BBVA。

  • In fourth quarter 2022, loan loss allowances increased 52.7% mainly due to the update in the IFRS 9 impairment loss model parameters. This also explains the yearly increase.

    2022 年第四季度,貸款損失準備金增加了 52.7%,這主要是由於 IFRS 9 減值損失模型參數的更新。這也解釋了每年的增長。

  • During fourth quarter 2022, total operating expenses were ARS 57.5 billion, increasing 12% quarter-over-quarter of which 32% were personnel benefit costs remaining as well versus third quarter 2022. Personnel benefits increased 12.7%. The quarterly increase is partially explained by the effect of collective agreement on wages with the unions on the fourth quarter of 2022, an increment in personnel compensation and bonuses and an increase in employee training expenditures.

    2022 年第四季度,總運營費用為 575 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 12%,其中 32% 是剩餘的人員福利成本,與 2022 年第三季度相比。人員福利增長 12.7%。季度增長的部分原因是 2022 年第四季度與工會達成的集體工資協議的影響、人員薪酬和獎金的增加以及員工培訓支出的增加。

  • Administrative expenses increased 1% quarter-over-quarter. The quarterly increase is partially explained by: one, an increase in taxes; two, greater expenses in advertising costs; and three, an increase in outsourced administrative expenses. The negative effect of the aforementioned items was offset by a decrease in rent and software.

    管理費用環比增長 1%。季度增長的部分原因是:一是稅收增加;二、廣告費用支出較大;三是外包管理費用增加。上述項目的負面影響被租金和軟件的減少所抵消。

  • The quarterly efficiency ratio as of the fourth quarter 2022 was 53%, improving compared to the 64.8% reported in the third quarter 2022. The quarterly improvement is explained by a lower increase in expenses than income, especially due to a significant improvement in interest income and lower quarterly results from the net monetary position.

    截至 2022 年第四季度的季度效率率為 53%,與 2022 年第三季度報告的 64.8% 相比有所改善。季度改善的原因是支出增幅低於收入增幅,尤其是利息收入顯著改善淨貨幣狀況導致季度業績下降。

  • The accumulated efficiency ratio as of 2022 was 63.9%, improving compared to the 69.1% reported in 2021. The yearly improvement is also explained by a significant improvement in interest income.

    截至 2022 年的累計效率率為 63.9%,與 2021 年報告的 69.1% 相比有所改善。利息收入的顯著改善也解釋了年度改善。

  • In terms of activity on Slide 7, total consolidated financing to the private sector in the fourth quarter 2022 totaled ARS 734 billion, increasing 7.5% quarter-over-quarter and contracting 3.1% year-over-year. Loans to the private sector in pesos increased 7.8% in the fourth quarter 2022. During the quarter, the increase was especially driven by a 34.1% growth in discounted instruments, a 4.3% increase in credit cards due to the growth in activity followed by a 12.1% increase in overdraft and 5.1% in other loans. The latter are affected by greater floor planning activities through the automotive consolidated financial companies' official dealership network gets its financing for vehicle stocks, spare parts and other goods.

    就幻燈片 7 的活動而言,2022 年第四季度私營部門綜合融資總額為 7340 億阿根廷比索,環比增長 7.5%,同比收縮 3.1%。 2022 年第四季度,以比索計價的私營部門貸款增長了 7.8%。在本季度,增長的主要推動因素是貼現工具增長 34.1%,信用卡增長 4.3%,原因是活動增長,隨後是透支增加 12.1%,其他貸款增加 5.1%。後者受到更多平面規劃活動的影響,通過汽車聯合金融公司的官方經銷商網絡獲得車輛庫存、備件和其他商品的融資。

  • Loans to the private sector denominated in foreign currency slightly increased 1% quarter-over-quarter and remained practically stable, falling 0.5% year-over-year. Quarterly increase is mainly explained by a 38.6% increment in other loans and partially offset by a 36.1% fall in credit cards. Loans to the private sector in foreign currency measured in U.S. dollars fell 1.5% quarter-over-quarter and increased 12.4% year-over-year.

    外幣計價的私營部門貸款環比微增 1%,基本保持穩定,同比下降 0.5%。季度增長主要是由於其他貸款增長 38.6%,部分被信用卡下降 36.1% 所抵消。以美元計價的外幣私營部門貸款環比下降 1.5%,同比增長 12.4%。

  • During the quarter, both the retail and commercial portfolio fell in real terms. Loan portfolio were highly impacted by the effect of inflation during the third quarter of 2022, which reached 17.3%. In nominal terms, BBVA Argentina managed to increase the total loan portfolio by 25.6% during the quarter.

    本季度,零售和商業投資組合均出現實際下跌。貸款組合在 2022 年第三季度受到通貨膨脹影響的嚴重影響,達到 17.3%。按名義價值計算,BBVA Argentina 在本季度設法將總貸款組合增加了 25.6%。

  • BBVA Argentina's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 9.10% as of the fourth quarter 2022, improving from 8.05% a year ago. In fourth quarter 2022, asset quality ratio was 1.13% compared to the 1.07% recorded in the third quarter 2022. The mild increase is mainly explained by an increase in the retail nonperforming portfolio. The update of the IFRS 9 impairment plus model parameters had an impact on the coverage ratio, which reached 242.23%, above the 236.89% recorded in the third quarter 2022. And on the cost of risk, which reached 4.09% on fourth quarter of 2022, above the third quarter 2022's 2.65%.

    截至 2022 年第四季度,BBVA 阿根廷在私營部門貸款中的綜合市場份額達到 9.10%,高於一年前的 8.05%。 2022 年第四季度,資產質量比率為 1.13%,而 2022 年第三季度為 1.07%。溫和增長的主要原因是零售不良資產組合的增加。 IFRS 9 減值加模型參數的更新對覆蓋率產生了影響,覆蓋率達到 242.23%,高於 2022 年第三季度記錄的 236.89%。風險成本在 2022 年第四季度達到 4.09% ,高於 2022 年第三季度的 2.65%。

  • On the funding side, as seen on Slide 8, private nonfinancial sector deposits in fourth quarter 2022 totaled ARS 1.3 trillion, falling 12% quarter-over-quarter and 3.7% year-over-year. Quarterly decrease was mainly explained by sight deposits. The bank's consolidated market share of private deposits reached 6.64% as of the fourth quarter of 2022.

    在資金方面,如幻燈片 8 所示,2022 年第四季度私人非金融部門存款總額為 1.3 萬億阿根廷比索,環比下降 12%,同比下降 3.7%。季度減少主要是活期存款所致。截至2022年第四季度,該行私人存款綜合市場份額達到6.64%。

  • Private nonfinancial sector deposits in pesos increased 2.9% compared to the third quarter 2022. Quarterly change is mainly affected by a 15.7% increase in sight deposits followed by time deposits by 8.4%. This was partially offset by a decrease in investment accounts by 17.9%.

    與 2022 年第三季度相比,以比索計價的私人非金融部門存款增長了 2.9%。季度變化主要受活期存款增長 15.7% 的影響,其次是定期存款增長 8.4%。這部分被投資賬戶減少 17.9% 所抵消。

  • Private nonfinancial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos grew 16% quarter-over-quarter, mainly due to a seasonal effect.

    以比索表示的私人非金融部門外幣存款環比增長 16%,這主要是由於季節性影響。

  • In terms of capitalization, BBVA Argentina continues to show strong solvency indicators in fourth quarter 2022. Capital ratio reached 26.1%.

    在資本化方面,BBVA Argentina 在 2022 年第四季度繼續表現出強勁的償付能力指標。資本比率達到 26.1%。

  • Exposure to the public sector in the fourth quarter 2022, excluding Central Bank instruments, represent 10.1% of total assets, slightly above the 9.8% in the third quarter 2022 and way below the 16.4% reported by the system as of December 2022.

    2022 年第四季度公共部門敞口(不包括中央銀行工具)佔總資產的 10.1%,略高於 2022 年第三季度的 9.8%,遠低於系統報告的截至 2022 年 12 月的 16.4%。

  • It is worth mentioning that as the date of this report, BBVA Argentina has distributed dividends by ARS 13.2 billion, installments 1 to 12, according to the established schedule published on June 16, 2022. The bank's total liquidity ratio remained healthy at 78% of total deposits as of December 31, 2022.

    值得一提的是,截至本報告發布之日,BBVA Argentina 已根據 2022 年 6 月 16 日公佈的既定時間表,分期 1 至 12 期分期派發 132 億阿根廷比索的股息。該銀行的總流動性比率保持在 78% 的健康水平。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的存款總額。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

    我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在將回答您的問題。接線員,請打開問題線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Rodrigo Nistor with Latin Securities.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自拉丁證券公司的 Rodrigo Nistor。

  • Rodrigo Ezequiel Nistor - Research Analyst

    Rodrigo Ezequiel Nistor - Research Analyst

  • I have a few questions for what your outlook for here on the recently announced debt exchange. So in 2022, BBVA posted an ROE of 17.5%. Do you believe this level of profitability is sustainable in the long run? And then if you could provide some insights into the outlook for the current year, specifically, what are your expectations for loan and deposit growth?

    關於您對最近宣布的債務交換的看法,我有幾個問題。因此,在 2022 年,BBVA 的 ROE 為 17.5%。您認為從長遠來看,這種盈利水平是否可持續?然後,如果你能提供一些關於今年前景的見解,具體來說,你對貸款和存款增長的預期是什麼?

  • Carmen Morillo Arroyo - Heads of Market & Industry Relations

    Carmen Morillo Arroyo - Heads of Market & Industry Relations

  • Hi, Morillo Arroyo talking to you. Okay. Yes, as you mentioned, we posted an ROE of 17.5%. We believe this ROE is sustainable basically because we see the monetary policy rate increasing, particularly in the second half of 2023. According to research from the actual 75%, it could reach 85% by the end of 2023. So this extra expansion in margins could help us sustain the ROE at the actual levels.

    嗨,莫里洛阿羅約正在和你說話。好的。是的,正如您提到的,我們發布的 ROE 為 17.5%。我們認為這個 ROE 是可持續的,主要是因為我們看到貨幣政策利率在增加,特別是在 2023 年下半年。根據實際 75% 的研究,到 2023 年底可能達到 85%。所以利潤率的額外擴張可以幫助我們將 ROE 維持在實際水平。

  • Our macroeconomic projections, to give you an idea, are mainly for GDP. We are seeing the 2022 ending around 5.2% growth. But for 2023, we have seen a contraction of 1% inflation, which, as you know, ended around 95%, a little bit less. We are projecting for 2023, 105%. And the official FX, we are projecting for the end of 2023, ARS 355, that is official FX.

    我們的宏觀經濟預測,給你一個概念,主要是針對GDP。我們看到 2022 年結束時增長率約為 5.2%。但到 2023 年,我們看到了 1% 的通貨膨脹收縮,如你所知,最終達到 95% 左右,略低一些。我們預計 2023 年為 105%。而官方外匯,我們預計到 2023 年底,ARS 355,即官方外匯。

  • Regarding loan growth, we had -- we ended the year with a negative growth of only minus 3%. We're decreasing in real terms less than the system. The system decreased 29%. So we were able to gain market share in the loan book. And for 2023, we are projecting loan growth a little bit below inflation around minus 2%, similar levels to what was this year. We are growing our loan book in the -- particularly in the commercial lines now with the same SMEs.

    關於貸款增長,我們有 - 我們以負增長僅負 3% 結束了這一年。我們實際減少的比系統少。系統下降了29%。因此,我們能夠在貸款簿中獲得市場份額。對於 2023 年,我們預計貸款增長將略低於通脹率約負 2%,與今年的水平相似。我們正在增加我們的貸款賬簿 - 特別是在現在與相同的中小企業的商業領域。

  • For deposits, we ended 2022 with minus 4%, a little bit more than the system that has ended in minus 2%. And for 2023, we are projecting also negative real growth, but in line with loans, also minus 2%.

    對於存款,我們以負 4% 結束了 2022 年,比以負 2% 結束的系統略高一點。而對於 2023 年,我們預計實際增長也會出現負增長,但與貸款一致,也為負 2%。

  • Rodrigo Ezequiel Nistor - Research Analyst

    Rodrigo Ezequiel Nistor - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then a quick follow-up on -- with regards to the recently announced debt exchange for official ones. What is your intention if you're planning to participate? Or how do you think of this exchange?

    好的。然後快速跟進 - 關於最近宣布的官方債務交換。如果你打算參加,你的意圖是什麼?或者您如何看待這次交流?

  • Carmen Morillo Arroyo - Heads of Market & Industry Relations

    Carmen Morillo Arroyo - Heads of Market & Industry Relations

  • Yes. So basically, we have an exposure of around ARS 195 billion of treasury exposure that excludes LELIQ. From that, more or less ARS 45 billion are reserve requirements. So we have ARS 150 billion less. From that number -- from that figure, less that we would go into the voluntary extent with less than ARS 50 billion. And that includes all the bonds that mature between today and June 30.

    是的。所以基本上,我們有大約 1950 億阿根廷比索的國庫風險敞口,不包括 LELIQ。據此,或多或少的 450 億阿根廷比索是準備金要求。所以我們少了 1500 億阿根廷比索。從這個數字 - 從那個數字來看,我們將以不到 500 億阿根廷比索進入自願範圍。這包括從今天到 6 月 30 日之間到期的所有債券。

  • Just to give you a reference, basically, you have to say that, that ARS 195 billion I mentioned represent more or less 50% of our equity. And compared that to the system, that for the system, it represents 80% and for the private, only 60%. The debt in pesos is only at 7% to the [EP] and -- that's only 7% of the debt in pesos is in hands of private holders. So that is basically our view. Now we are going to go with less than ARS 50 billion into the voluntary exchange.

    只是給你一個參考,基本上,你要說,我說的1950億阿根廷比索,大概占我們股權的50%左右。與系統相比,對於系統,它代表了 80%,對於私人,只有 60%。比索債務僅佔 [EP] 的 7%,而且 - 只有 7% 的比索債務掌握在私人持有人手中。這基本上是我們的觀點。現在我們將以不到 500 億阿根廷比索的資金投入自願交易。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Showing no further questions, this concludes the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mrs. Lanusse for any closing remarks.

    (操作員說明)沒有進一步的問題,問答環節到此結束。現在,我想請 Lanusse 女士發言結束。

  • Ines Lanusse - IR Officer

    Ines Lanusse - IR Officer

  • Okay. Thank you for your time and let us know if you have further questions. Have a good day.

    好的。感謝您抽出寶貴時間,如果您還有其他問題,請告訴我們。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a nice day.

    謝謝。今天的演講到此結束。您可以在此時斷開您的線路,並度過愉快的一天。