Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA's Argentina 4Q '24 and Fiscal Year 2024 Results Conference Call. Today with us are Mrs. Belen Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager; and Mrs. Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO, who will be available for the Q&A session. This presentation and the 4Q '24 earnings release are available on our Investor Relations website, ir.bbva.com.ir and will also be available for download in the chat.

大家早安，歡迎參加 BBVA 阿根廷 2024 年第四季和 2024 財年業績電話會議。今天和我們在一起的是投資者關係經理 Belen Fourcade 女士；以及財務長 Carmen Morillo Arroyo 女士，她將出席問答環節。本簡報和 2024 年第四季財報可在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.bbva.com.ir 上查閱，也可在聊天中下載。

First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the managing of the safe harbor provision found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under the US Federal Securities law. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the BBVA Argentina annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year of 2023 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions)

首先，我要指出的是，本次電話會議中的一些陳述可能是美國聯邦證券法下1933年證券法第27A條安全港條款管理範圍內的前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在 BBVA 阿根廷向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2023 財政年度 20-F 表年度報告中。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Belen Fourcade. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給 Belen Fourcade。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you all for joining us today. The significant fiscal and monetary consolidation, together with relative exchange rate stability have contributed to a process of inflation moderation throughout 2024 in Argentina. Likewise, after a sharp contraction in the first half of the year, there are clear signs of economic recovery, which after an expected average drop of 1.8% by the National Institute of Statistics for 2024 would expand around 5.5% in 2025 according to BBVA research. The prospects for reducing inflation have been improving every month, and the forecast is that it will converge to around 30% or even less in 2025. The collapse of country risk is also remarkable, which went from 1,900 bps to less than 700 bps at the end of 2024.

早安，感謝大家今天的參加。顯著的財政和貨幣政策整頓，加上相對的匯率穩定，促使阿根廷在 2024 年全年實現通膨緩和。同樣，在經歷了上半年的急劇萎縮之後，經濟復甦的跡像明顯。根據西班牙國家統計局預測的2024年平均經濟降幅為1.8%，而根據西班牙對外銀行的研究，2025年經濟將成長約5.5%。降低通膨的前景每月都在改善，預計到 2025 年通膨率將收斂到 30% 左右甚至更低。國家風險的下降也十分顯著，從 1,900 個基點下降到 2024 年底的不到 700 個基點。

On the other hand, one of the main factors of uncertainty is associated with the evolution of exchange rate and the pace of removal of exchange regulations. Since recently, the peso has remained more appreciated than expected. The banking system continues to grow at a high rate, driven by inflation control and the reforms introduced by the new government.

另一方面，主要的不確定因素之一與匯率的演變和取消外匯管制的步伐有關。自最近以來，比索的升值幅度一直超乎預期。在通膨控制和新政府推行的改革的推動下，銀行體系持續快速成長。

Now moving on to business dynamics. As you can see on slide 3 of our webcast presentation, our service offering has evolved in such a way that by the end of December 2024, new customer acquisition through digital channels reached 88% versus 78% a year ago. The response on the side of customers has been satisfactory, and we are convinced that this is the path to pursue in the aim of sustaining and expanding our competitive position in the financial system. Retail digital sales measured in units reached 91% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and represents 73.5% of the bank's total sales measured in monetary value.

現在討論商業動態。正如您在我們網路廣播簡報的第 3 張投影片中所看到的，我們的服務產品已經發生了巨大的變化，到 2024 年 12 月底，透過數位管道獲得的新客戶比例將達到 88%，而一年前這一比例為 78%。客戶的反應令人滿意，我們堅信，這是維持和擴大我們在金融體系中的競爭地位的正確途徑。2024 年第四季度，以單位計算的零售數位銷售額達到 91%，佔該銀行以貨幣價值計算的總銷售額的 73.5%。

Moving to slide 4 and 5. I will now comment on the bank's fourth quarter 2024 financial results. BBVA Argentina's inflation adjusted net income in the fourth quarter of 2024 was ARS64.7 billion, decreasing 39.6% quarter-over-quarter. This implied a quarterly ROE of 9.5% and a quarterly ROA of 1.7%. The 48.1% fall in quarterly operating results was explained by a lower operating income and higher operating expenses. The decline in income was mainly due to: one, higher loan loss allowances, mainly driven by sustained growth in activity; two, lower net fee income; three, lower net interest income as a result of a lower average monetary policy rate; and four, lower interest generated by CPI-linked bonds.

移至投影片 4 和 5。我現在將對該銀行 2024 年第四季的財務表現發表評論。BBVA 阿根廷銀行 2024 年第四季經通膨調整後的淨收入為 647 億阿根廷比索，季減 39.6%。這意味著季度 ROE 為 9.5%，季度 ROA 為 1.7%。季度營業業績下降 48.1% 的原因是營業收入下降和營業費用增加。收入下降的主要原因是：一、貸款損失準備金增加，主要受活動持續增長的推動；二、淨手續費收入下降；三、平均貨幣政策利率下降，導致淨利息收入減少；四是CPI掛鉤債券利息收入減少。

On the side of expenses, personnel expenses and operating expenses are higher, the latter due to the devaluation of investment properties. It should be noted that the income tax line reflects a positive result derived from a change in accounting exposure that implies a reclassification of the income tax calculation from other comprehensive income to the income statement. Net income for the period was highly impacted by income from the net monetary position, although with lower impact than the prior quarter. Inflation on the fourth quarter of 2024 was 8.03% lower than the 12.1% in the previous quarter. Consequently, the income from net monetary position line recorded a 16.2% lower loss than the previous quarter, having a positive income in the quarter-over-quarter net income comparison.

在費用方面，人員費用和營運費用較高，後者是由於投資性房地產貶值造成的。值得注意的是，所得稅行反映了會計風險變化所帶來的正面結果，這意味著將所得稅計算從其他綜合收入重新分類到損益表。本期淨收入受到淨貨幣部位收入的嚴重影響，儘管影響低於上一季。2024年第四季的通貨膨脹率比上一季的12.1%下降了8.03%。因此，淨貨幣部位收益較上一季減少16.2%的虧損，在季度環比淨收入比較中呈現正收益。

Turning into the P&L lines in slide 6, we are going to comment on the financial results of the year. In 2024, BBVA Argentina net income was ARS357.7 billion, 0.4% lower than the ARS359.2 billion reported in 2023. This implied an accumulated annualized ROE of 12.5% and an ROA of 2.5% in 2024 compared to an ROE of 13% and an ROA of 2.7% in 2023. The 25.8% fall in real terms of the bank's operating income is mainly explained by: one, a fall in net interest income due to lower accrued average rates in loans and due to lower inflation, which has an impact on CPI-linked bonds; and two, lower income from foreign exchange and gold gains, in particular, due to the position in dual bonds by the end of 2023, which increased the position in USD-denominated assets by the year-end.

前往投影片 6 中的損益表，我們將對年度財務結果進行評論。2024 年，BBVA 阿根廷銀行淨收入為 3,577 億阿根廷比索，比 2023 年報告的 3,592 億阿根廷比索下降 0.4%。這意味著 2024 年累計年化 ROE 為 12.5%，ROA 為 2.5%，而 2023 年 ROE 為 13%，ROA 為 2.7%。該行營業收入實際​​下降25.8%，主要原因有：一是貸款平均累計利率下降，以及通貨膨脹率降低對CPI掛鉤債券產生影響，導致淨利息收入下降；二是外匯收入和黃金收益減少，特別是由於2023年底持有雙重債券頭寸，導致年底增加美元資產頭寸。

Nonetheless, improvements in operating expenses are observed, especially in personnel expenses and lower expenses due to turnover tax. These effects were compensated by better income from financial instruments at fair value through P&L and an improvement in income from write-down of assets at amortized cost and fair value through OCI as a result of the sale, exchange and maturity of bonds, mainly CPI-linked bonds. Regarding net interest income, in 2024, this totaled ARS2.9 trillion, falling 17.3% year-over-year. This was a result of: one, a fall in income from public securities as public debt migrated from Central Bank instruments on to treasury debt, together with an aggressive decline in the monetary policy rate; and two, lower income from loans also as a consequence of lower market rates.

儘管如此，營運費用有所改善，尤其是人事費用和營業稅費用有所降低。這些影響被透過損益表體現的公允價值的金融工具收入的增加以及透過其他綜合收益體現的攤銷成本和公允價值的資產減記收入的增加所抵消，這些收入是由於債券（主要是與消費者物價指數掛鉤的債券）的出售、交換和到期而產生的。就淨利息收入而言，2024 年，淨利息收入總計 2.9 兆阿根廷比索，年減 17.3%。原因在於：一是隨著公共債務從央行工具轉向國債，公共證券收入下降，加上貨幣政策利率大幅下降；二是市場利率降低也導致貸款收入減少。

Even so, interest expenses decreased as time deposit rates were deregulated and followed the overall decline in market rates. Interest from time deposits explain 66.4% of interest expenses in the quarter versus 71% in the prior quarter. In the year, net fee income decreased 6.6%, explained by a 0.1% increase in income and an 8.1% increase in expenses. This performance is mainly due to: one, a lower income from collecting services and transfers within an overall decline of the lines that are part of fees linked to liabilities; and two, higher expenses in foreign currency. Net fee income is also justified by the active strategy focused on client acquisition.

即便如此，隨著定期存款利率放寬管制以及市場利率整體下降，利息支出也有所下降。定期存款利息佔本季利息支出的 66.4%，上一季為 71%。全年淨費用收入下降6.6%，其中收入增加0.1%，支出增加8.1%。主要原因有：一是負債類收費項目數量整體下降，代收代繳服務收入及轉帳收入減少；二是外幣支出增加。淨費用收入也因專注於客戶獲取的主動策略而合理。

As of December 2024, BBVA Argentina gained more than 142,000 clients, reaching 3.7 million total active clients, which means a 3% growth year-over-year. During 2024, total operating expenses were ARS1.7 trillion, decreasing 3.9% year-over-year in real terms, of which 31% were personnel benefit costs. In the year, personnel benefits fell 4.6%. In spite of wages following the pace of inflation, the year increase was lower with the adjustment of stock of vacation days and variable remuneration.

截至 2024 年 12 月，BBVA 阿根廷銀行新增客戶超過 142,000 名，活躍客戶總數達 370 萬，較去年同期成長 3%。2024年，總營運支出為1.7兆阿根廷比索，年減3.9%，其中31%為人員福利成本。全年員工福利下降4.6%。儘管薪資跟隨通貨膨脹的步伐增長，但由於假期存量和浮動薪資的調整，今年的增幅較低。

Administrative expenses grew 3.9% year-over-year, mainly due to taxes related to wire transfers produced by dividend payments, followed by document distribution, advertising costs and armored transportation services, the latter affected by the tax amnesty dynamics. The accumulated efficiency ratio as of the fourth quarter of 2024 was 61.8%, above the 59.7% reported in the third quarter of 2024 and the 58.6% reported in the fourth quarter of 2023. The increase in this ratio is due to a decrease in income, both fee and interest income.

管理費用較去年同期增加3.9%，主要原因是股利支付產生的電匯相關稅費，其次是文件分發、廣告費用和裝甲運輸服務，後者受到稅收赦免動態的影響。截至 2024 年第四季的累積效率比率為 61.8%，高於 2024 年第三季報告的 59.7% 和 2023 年第四季報告的 58.6%。此比率的增加是由於費用和利息收入的減少。

In 2024, total NIM was 35% versus 37.3% in 2023, recording a 234 bps fall. This happened in a context of an aggressive fall in interest rates starting 2024 with a monetary policy rate of 100% and ending 32%. However, given that the average maturity of interest-earning assets is longer than that of deposits, price adjustment for expenses is faster than for income, mitigating the fall in the NIM. Additionally, USD-denominated deposits had a high relative growth, diluting the expenses generated by total deposits.

2024 年，總淨利差為 35%，而 2023 年為 37.3%，下降了 234 個基點。這一情況發生在利率大幅下降的背景下，從2024年開始，貨幣政策利率為100%，到2024年底，利率將降至32%。不過，由於生息資產的平均期限長於存款，支出的價格調整速度快於收入的價格調整速度，緩和了淨利差的下降。此外，美元存款相對成長較高，稀釋了總存款產生的費用。

Sustained credit growth in real terms since April 2024 allows the bank to take a more defensive stance to protect the margin from successive decreases in interest rates during the year with a longer-term fixed rate credits. Securities portfolio management is to be noted as the bank has converted part of its floating rate securities into securities of longer maturities at fixed rate in a context of declining rates, mitigating effect on the NIM.

自 2024 年 4 月以來，實際信貸持續成長，使該銀行能夠採取更具防禦性的立場，透過長期固定利率信貸保護利潤免受年內利率連續下降的影響。值得注意的是，在利率下降的背景下，該銀行已將部分浮動利率證券轉換為期限較長的固定利率證券，從而減輕了對淨利差的影響。

Private sector loans as of the fourth quarter of 2024 totaled ARS7.6 trillion, increasing 28.7% or ARS1.7 trillion quarter-over-quarter and 75% or ARS3.3 trillion year-over-year. Loans to the private sector in pesos increased 26.2% in quarter-over-quarter and 61.5% year-over-year.

截至 2024 年第四季度，私部門貸款總額為 7.6 兆阿根廷披索，季增 28.7% 或 1.7 兆阿根廷披索，年增 75% 或 3.3 兆阿根廷披索。私部門的比索貸款較上季成長 26.2%，年增 61.5%。

During the quarter, growth was especially driven by: one, a 25.5% increase in credit cards, followed by two, a 26.5% increase in discounted instruments; and three, a 29.2% increase in customer loans. This is followed by a 26.1% growth in loans to personnel and 23.7% growth in overdrafts. In all cases, the increment is boosted by a genuine growth in real terms of the portfolio, levered on the lower market interest rates and greater commercial efforts. Loans to the private sector denominated in foreign currency increased 42.9% quarter-over-quarter and 194.6% year-over-year. Quarterly increase is mainly explained by an 81% growth in financing and prefinancing of exports.

本季度，成長主要得益於：一是信用卡成長25.5%，二是折扣工具成長26.5%；三是客戶貸款成長29.2%。其次是人員貸款成長26.1%、透支成長23.7%。在所有情況下，增量都是由投資組合的實際成長所推動的，這得益於較低的市場利率和更大的商業努力。私部門外幣貸款較上季成長42.9%，較去年同期成長194.6%。季度成長主要由於出口融資和預融資成長 81%。

During the quarter, the commercial portfolio grew 30.6% and the retail portfolio increased 26.5%. The commercial portfolio represents 56.7% of the total portfolio from 50.7% a year ago. As observed in previous quarters, loan portfolios were impacted by the effect of inflation during the fourth quarter of 2024, which reached 8%. In nominal terms, BBVA Argentina managed to increase the retail, commercial and total loan portfolio by 36.6%, 41% and 39%, respectively, during the quarter, surpassing quarterly inflation levels in all cases.

本季度，商業投資組合成長 30.6%，零售投資組合成長 26.5%。商業投資組合佔總投資組合的 56.7%，而一年前這一比例為 50.7%。正如前幾季所觀察到的，貸款組合受到 2024 年第四季通貨膨脹的影響，通貨膨脹率達到 8%。從名義上看，本季 BBVA 阿根廷銀行的零售、商業和總貸款組合分別成長了 36.6%、41% 和 39%，均超過了季度通膨水準。

As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the total gross loans and other financing over deposits ratio was 77.5%, above the 64.9% recorded in the third quarter and above the 55.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Participation of total loans over assets is 51% versus 43% in the third quarter of 2024 and 32% in the fourth quarter of 2023, evidencing a lower exposure to the public sector in line with the real growth of credit demand.

截至 2024 年第四季，總貸款及其他融資與存款比率為 77.5%，高於第三季的 64.9%，也高於 2023 年第四季的 55.5%。總貸款與資產的參與率為 51%，而 2024 年第三季為 43%，2023 年第四季為 32%，這表明公共部門的曝險較低，與信貸需求的實際成長一致。

BBVA Argentina's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 11.31% as of the fourth quarter of 2024, improving from 9.35% a year ago and sustaining the 2-digit figure. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, asset quality ratios keep a very good performance at 1.13%, with non-performing loans growing below the growth of total loan portfolio. On the funding side, as of the fourth quarter of 2024, total deposits reached ARS9.9 trillion, increasing 7.8% quarter-over-quarter.

截至 2024 年第四季，BBVA 阿根廷私部門貸款綜合市佔率達到 11.31%，較一年前的 9.35% 有所提高，並維持在兩位數。截至2024年第四季度，資產品質率維持在1.13%的良好水平，不良貸款的成長速度低於貸款總額的成長速度。資金方面，截至2024年第四季，總存款達9.9兆阿根廷披索，季增7.8%。

The bank's consolidated market share of private deposits reached 8.72% as of the fourth quarter of 2024. Private non-financial sector deposits in pesos totaled ARS6.3 trillion, increasing 13.5% compared to the third quarter of 2024 and 23.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The quarterly change is mainly affected by a 14.1% increase in time deposits and a 15% increase in savings account.

截至 2024 年第四季度，該銀行的私人存款綜合市佔率達到 8.72%。私人非金融部門比索存款總額為 6.3 兆阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季成長 13.5%，比 2023 年第四季成長 23.5%。季度變化主要受到定期存款增加14.1%和儲蓄帳戶增加15%的影響。

Private non-financial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos increased 0.8% quarter-over-quarter and 27.8% year-over-year. This is mainly explained by a 20.9% increase in time deposits, partially offset by a 0.4% fall in savings accounts. BBVA Argentina continues to show strong solvency indicators in the fourth quarter of 2024. Capital ratio reached 19.5%. Capital excess over regulatory requirement reached 138.5%. It is important to mention that capital ratio was highly impacted in the second quarter of 2024 by dividend distribution.

以比索表示的私人非金融部門外幣存款較上季成長 0.8%，年增 27.8%。這主要是因為定期存款增加了 20.9%，但儲蓄帳戶減少了 0.4%，從而部分抵消了這一增長。2024 年第四季，BBVA 阿根廷銀行持續展現強勁的償付能力指標。資本適足率達19.5%。資本超額率達138.5%。值得一提的是，2024 年第二季的資本比率受到股利分配的嚴重影響。

Furthermore, the fall in the capital ratio in this quarter is partially explained by the 14.9% increase in risk-weighted assets linked to the real growth in the loan portfolio, in line with the increase in market risk requirements. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, total public sector exposure, excluding Central Bank totaled ARS2.6 trillion, decreasing 7.3% quarter-over-quarter. In the year, exposure to the public sector decreased significantly if Central Bank instruments were considered, bearing in mind that the government migrated debt from the Central Bank to treasury securities. Exposure to the public sector, excluding Central Bank exposure represents 18% of total assets, below the 21% in the third quarter of 2024 and as mentioned before, in line with real loan growth demand.

此外，本季資本充足率的下降部分是由於與貸款組合實際成長相關的風險加權資產增加了 14.9%，這與市場風險要求的增加相符。截至 2024 年第四季度，不包括中央銀行在內的公共部門總風險敞口為 2.6 兆阿根廷比索，季減 7.3%。考慮到政府將債務從中央銀行轉移到國庫證券，如果考慮中央銀行的工具，那麼今年公共部門的風險敞口將大幅下降。不包括中央銀行風險敞口的公共部門風險敞口佔總資產的 18%，低於 2024 年第三季的 21%，並且如前所述，與實際貸款成長需求一致。

In the quarter, liquid assets were ARS5.4 trillion, decreasing 13.3% quarter-over-quarter. This was mainly driven by a decline in cash and deposits in banks, a 9.9% fall in public securities and a 98.1% fall in overnight transaction in foreign banks. As of December of 2024, the bank issued corporate bonds class 31, 32, 33 and 34, two of them in pesos with TAMAR adjustment and two of them in US dollars, all of them maturing in a year or less. Without considering the issuance of corporate bonds in September, BBVA Argentina's last corporate bond issuance was in 2019.

本季度，流動資產為5.4兆阿根廷比索，季減13.3%。主要原因是銀行現金及存款減少、公債下跌9.9%、外資銀行隔夜交易量下跌98.1%。截至 2024 年 12 月，該銀行已發行 31、32、33 和 34 類公司債券，其中兩類以比索計價並經過 TAMAR 調整，兩類以美元計價，所有債券的到期日均為一年或更短。不考慮9月發行的公司債，BBVA阿根廷銀行上一次發行公司債是在2019年。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將回答大家的提問。接線員，請打開熱線以回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Carlos Lopez, HSBC.

（操作員指示）卡洛斯·洛佩茲，匯豐銀行。

You may have said this before and I missed it. So what are your expectations for growth in loans, deposits and profitability for 2025. Again, with understanding that there is a lot of uncertainty here.

您可能之前說過這個，但我沒有註意到。那麼您對2025年貸款、存款和獲利能力的成長有何預期？再次強調，我們理解這裡存在著許多不確定性。

Of course, on the side of private loans, we are expecting the system to grow about between 40% and 45% and we are expecting ourselves to grow around 60% or 65%, of course, focusing on the increasing market share that we have been going on for this whole year and for the past at least five years. Of course, all of this is subject to the uncertainty that you mentioned.

當然，在私人貸款方面，我們預計系統成長率將在 40% 到 45% 之間，我們自身的成長率將在 60% 到 65% 左右，當然，重點是我們今年全年以及過去至少五年一直在不斷增長的市場份額。當然，這一切都受到您所提到的不確定性的影響。

No, this is 40%, 45% nominal and you're 60%, 65% nominal. And you refer to 30% forecast for inflation is that your forecast or that is the market consensus?

不，這是名義上的 40%、45%，而你是名義上的 60%、65%。您提到的通膨預測為 30%，這是您的預測還是市場共識？

No. First of all, the 40%, 43% for the system is real, real terms and 65% is real terms, too. So we are --

不。首先，該系統的40％、43％是真實的，真實的，65％也是真實的。所以我們--

Just wait a second while we reconnect the speaker.

請稍等片刻，我們將重新連接揚聲器。

Speaking just in real terms, we are expecting 20% but usually --

就實際而言，我們預計會有 20% 的成長，但通常--

I am sorry Belen, you disconnected.

對不起，貝倫，你斷線了。

It is little bit more conservative -- sorry, I don't know up to where you heard, we are speaking all in real terms.

它稍微保守一點——抱歉，我不知道您聽到的是什麼，我們說的都是實際情況。

Yes. So you were saying that this 60%, 65% of growth that you expect is in real terms. And again, can you repeat what your expectation or your economic team expectation as of today is for inflation for this year?

是的。所以您說，您預期的 60%、65% 的成長是實際成長。再說一次，您能否重複您或您的經濟團隊對今年通膨的預期是多少？

Yes. We are expecting 30%. I understand that we are being a bit more conservative than the market consensus, but we usually are. So we are keeping our expectations on 30% for the time being.

是的。我們預計為 30%。我知道我們比市場共識保守一些，但我們通常都是這樣的。因此我們暫時將預期維持在 30%。

And if you don't mind, could you go over your other economic assumptions, what do you expect for growth? And most importantly, what do you expect for interest rates and for the exchange rate?

如果您不介意的話，您能否談談您的其他經濟假設，您對成長有何預期？最重要的是，您對利率和匯率有何預期？

Okay. For the time being, we are seeing the monetary policy rate right now at 30 -- no, sorry, 29, but we are seeing 2025 ending in a 24% monetary policy rate. An FX rate of around ARS1,300 as the official rate and a GDP growth of 5.5% for 2025.

好的。目前，我們看到的貨幣政策利率為 30——不，抱歉，是 29，但我們預計 2025 年的貨幣政策利率將達到 24%。外匯匯率約 ARS1,300（官方匯率），2025 年 GDP 成長率為 5.5%。

(Operator Instructions) Carlos Lopez, HSBC.

（操作員指示）卡洛斯·洛佩茲，匯豐銀行。

Since there doesn't seem to be a lot of other questions, I'm going to do a follow-up. So we mentioned your growth. I think I also asked earlier about your expectations for profitability. We have seen your peers talking about either 10% to 15% or in some cases 15% to 20%. Do you look at the profitability in terms of ROE or ROA and what is the range that you think is realistic for 2025 and beyond?

由於似乎沒有太多其他問題，我將進行跟進。所以我們提到了你的成長。我想我之前也問過您對獲利能力的預期。我們看到您的同行談論的是 10% 到 15%，或者在某些情況下是 15% 到 20%。您是從 ROE 還是 ROA 的角度來看獲利能力的？您認為 2025 年及以後的獲利範圍是多少？

Carlos, Carmen speaking. So we are talking about these mid-teens in ROE, maybe by us a little bit lower. So yes we would contain the expectations in terms of ROE.

卡洛斯，我是卡門。因此，我們討論的是 ROE 的十幾歲左右，也許我們認為這個數字稍微低一點。所以是的，我們會控制 ROE 方面的期望。

So again, when you say a bit lower, you're talking more like 12%, 13% as opposed to 15%, 16%?

那麼，當您說稍微低一點時，您指的是 12%、13%，而不是 15%、16%？

Yes. That's right, Carlos.

是的。沒錯，卡洛斯。

And that's for this year. Is that a temporary thing? And I realize that everything is inflation and it contains a lot, but when you look at the '26, '27, what do you think is a sustainable rate of return for you for the system in an environment of more growth, but also lower inflation?

這就是今年的情況。這是暫時的嗎？我意識到一切都與通貨膨脹有關，而且通貨膨脹包含許多因素，但是當您回顧 26 年和 27 年時，您認為在經濟成長更快、通貨膨脹更低的環境下，系統的可持續回報率是多少？

So yes, as you mentioned, it's difficult to say that as of today. Having said that, we are supposed and that you can maintain this mid-teens and maybe by the end of 2027 or so, maybe you can see something better. But we are not expecting much higher figures.

是的，正如您所說，截至今天還很難這麼說。話雖如此，我們應該能夠保持這種十幾歲的水平，也許到 2027 年底左右，你會看到更好的情況。但我們並不期望這個數字會更高。

And since you are growing so much, and eventually, you will have more consumption of capital, you already adjusted your capital with a big dividend last year. And actually, if you can remind me exactly how much you paid in 2024. What is your capital plan for 2025? Do you want to give a dividend? And if so, do you have any particular level in mind?

而且由於你們發展如此迅速，最終你們會消耗更多的資本，所以你們去年已經透過大額股息調整了你們的資本。實際上，如果你能提醒我你在 2024 年到底付了多少錢。您 2025 年的資本計畫是什麼？你想分紅嗎？如果是的話，您心中有什麼特定的層次嗎？

Okay. We are waiting for the regulation. So that's one thing. The other thing is that we are projecting that we can pay a dividend this year if we are allowed to do so. Of course, much lower than the amount we paid last year, which was -- so the approved dividend was around ARS400 million. So we are expecting to pay a smaller payout and as of the income from last year and not from the accumulated income as it was last year.

好的。我們正在等待法規。這是一回事。另一件事是，我們預計，如果允許的話，我們今年可以支付股息。當然，這比我們去年支付的金額要低得多，批准的股息約為 4 億阿根廷比索。因此，我們預計將支付較少的款項，並且是從去年的收入中支付，而不是從去年的累積收入中支付。

Okay. But you haven't defined it yet. I mean, we understand you haven't been approved, but you also don't -- do you have an idea? Are we talking 20%, 50%, 70%?

好的。但你還沒有定義它。我的意思是，我們知道您尚未獲得批准，但您也不知道—您有什麼想法嗎？我們說的是 20%、50% 還是 70%？

I would prefer not to tell you an exact figure. So just say that it will be a lower payout as it was compared to last year.

我不想告訴你一個確切的數字。因此可以說，與去年相比，今年的支出將會較低。

Okay. And do you expect to do this in a single payment? Or you will have to spread it out as in previous --

好的。您是否希望透過一次付款完成此操作？或者你必須像以前一樣把它展開--

It will depend on regulation, Carlos. So we have to wait until the Central Bank define how we can pay.

這將取決於規定，卡洛斯。所以我們必須等到中央銀行明確我們如何支付。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brent Erensel from Portales. Can you address asset quality, loan losses and reserves?

（操作員指示）我們的下一個問題來自 Portales 的 Brent Erensel。您能解決資產品質、貸款損失和儲備問題嗎？

Okay. Let's say, for the quarter and for the whole year, NPLs have been very low. For BBVA has been like one of the lowest of the system, if not the lowest at some point with 1.13% of NPLs. The system is -- I mean, just to talk about the Argentine system, NPLs are very low. For December, the system's NPL was 1.56% around that. So we don't see any concerns on the side of non-performing loans.

好的。可以說，本季和全年的不良貸款率都很低。BBVA 的不良貸款率為 1.13%，是該系統中最低的銀行之一，甚至一度是最低的銀行之一。這個系統是——我的意思是，就阿根廷的系統而言，不良貸款率非常低。12月份，該系統的不良貸款率為1.56%左右。因此，我們認為不良貸款方面不存在任何問題。

We have seen an outstanding increase in loans for the fourth quarter. So well, you can see that in our earnings release. We have increased our coverage and mostly on the P&L, we can see an increase in loan loss allowances, but this is all connected to the remarkable growth that we had in the last quarter.

我們發現第四季度的未償貸款增加。好吧，您可以在我們的收益報告中看到這一點。我們擴大了覆蓋範圍，主要是在損益表中，我們可以看到貸款損失準備金增加，但這一切都與我們上個季度的顯著增長有關。

And so I already commented on what the expectations on loan growth will be for 2025. And we don't see NPLs suffering much. We see very slight increase, but in line with what we are seeing. We are not seeing any concerns on the side of asset quality. Well, just -- I'm going on what I'm seeing on the questions. Sorry.

我已經評論過對 2025 年貸款成長的預期。我們認為不良貸款不會遭受太大影響。我們看到的增長非常輕微，但與我們所看到的一致。我們沒有看到資產品質方面的任何擔憂。好吧，只是——我將繼續討論我在問題中看到的內容。對不起。

Yes, I understand your concern on the side of profitability, but asset quality is sort of disconnected on this because the profitability is mainly explained by what we have seen on the dynamics of exchange -- sorry, of interest rates in the market. And also you have to take consideration that we started 2024 with 100% nominal interest rate on the monetary policy rate. And this profitability came from securities, not from loans. So this year, you had a transition from the participation of securities on your assets -- on your total assets that went down to around less than 20% in contrast with loans that went above 50% of your assets by the end of 2024.

是的，我理解您對盈利能力的擔憂，但資產品質與此有點脫節，因為盈利能力主要由我們所看到的匯率動態（抱歉，是市場利率）來解釋。你還必須考慮到，從 2024 年開始，我們的貨幣政策利率名目利率為 100%。而這種獲利來自於證券，而不是貸款。因此，今年，您的資產中證券的參與度發生了轉變——您的總資產下降到 20% 以下，而到 2024 年底，貸款將超過您資產的 50%。

So if you combine the transition from securities to loans and the fact that rates declined aggressively from 100% to 32%, this is what explains not just for BBVA, but for the rest of the banks on why you see mostly net interest income going down. But this is logical for the system. It's not a BBVA thing. You may compare, I don't know, some of our peers having gone on M&A transactions in the past. So it's not really comparable in that case. But the story of why NIMs are going down is what explains your profitability and not the growth in loans and in asset quality.

因此，如果將證券到貸款的轉變和利率從 100% 大幅下降到 32% 的事實結合起來，這不僅可以解釋 BBVA，還可以解釋為什麼其他銀行的淨利息收入大多在下降。但這對於系統來說是合乎邏輯的。這不是 BBVA 的事情。您可能會比較一下，我不知道，我們的一些同行過去曾進行過併購交易。因此在這種情況下，實際上是無法比較的。但淨利差下降的原因才是獲利能力下降的原因，而不是貸款和資產品質的成長的原因。

Adriano Mariani, Sagil Capital.

阿德里亞諾·馬裡亞尼 (Adriano Mariani)，Sagil Capital。

Congratulations on results. I guess can you touch a bit on what you expect for funding in terms of kind of deposit growth, et cetera? I mean you guys are expecting a lot of growth in loans. So if you can touch quickly on that and also kind of what level of kind of percentage of assets in securities. Should we expect this kind of a long-term level?

恭喜取得成果。我想您能否談談您對存款成長等方面的融資預期？我的意思是你們預計貸款將大幅成長。因此，如果您可以快速談一下這一點，以及證券資產的百分比是多少。我們是否應該期待這種長期水準？

Adriano, on the side of funding, we are not concerned about liquidity. We have deposits growing. This year, they have grown 25% in real terms, of course. And we are not expecting to have -- we are expecting to match this loan growth that we are focusing on what you have already seen in issuance of corporate bonds.

阿德里亞諾，在資金方面，我們並不擔心流動性。我們的存款正在成長。當然，今年實際成長率達到了 25%。我們並不期望——我們期望與這筆貸款成長相匹配，我們關注的是您在發行公司債時已經看到的成長。

We have issued I think five -- sorry, from Class 29 to Class 34. They are five corporate bonds both in pesos and in US dollars, and we still see that there is still plenty of space for going on to corporate bonds for funding. We don't see any need for additional capital at least, I don't know, like at least 2026.

我認為我們已經發行了五個 —— 抱歉，從第 29 課到第 34 課。有五隻公司債既有比索債券，也有美元債券，我們仍然看到透過公司債融資仍有很大空間。我們認為至少不需要額外資本，我不知道，至少到 2026 年。

Just a quick follow-up. And these corporate bonds, are they dollar-denominated or peso denominated?

只是一個快速的跟進。這些公司債是以美元計價的還是以比索計價的？

We have both. We have fixed -- no, variable rate pesos corporate bonds. And we have also issued USD-denominated bonds.

我們兩者都有。我們有固定——不，是浮動利率的比索公司債。而且我們還發行了美元債券。

And maybe a last follow-up on the growth. What -- how do you expect kind of the split to be between commercial and consumer and maybe within consumer, where you expect to see the areas of largest growth?

這也許是對成長的最後一次追蹤。您認為商業和消費者之間的劃分會是怎麼樣的？在消費者領域中，您認為成長最快的領域在哪裡？

Well, we have already seen that we have been focusing on the commercial segment, and this has shifted the proportions of retail and commercial to around like more than 50% of the portfolio is commercial. We see that growing in line with what we would expect with the incipient growth in GDP and in activity as companies are sort of the first ones to start taking loans.

嗯，我們已經看到我們一直專注於商業領域，這使得零售和商業的比例發生了變化，投資組合中超過 50% 是商業。我們看到，這一成長與我們預期的一致，因為 GDP 和經濟活動的初步成長，因為公司是第一批開始貸款的群體。

But then we have to bear in mind that we have now mortgages going on since July. And we see those retail segments growing mortgages and also personal loans, which we have focused on and we have grown a lot in terms of market share of personal loans. But well, we are going on both commercial and retail. But for the last few quarters, the strategy has been a little bit more focused on commercial, and that's why the mix changed from retail to mostly commercial. But we are not doing it in detriment of retail at all. We are going on both sides.

但我們必須記住，我們從七月起就開始辦理抵押貸款了。我們看到零售部門的抵押貸款和個人貸款都在成長，我們一直專注於此，而且我們的個人貸款市場份額也大幅增長。不過，我們既要涉足商業，也要涉足零售。但在過去幾個季度，該策略更加側重於商業，這就是為什麼業務組合從零售轉變為以商業為主。但我們這樣做絕對不會損害零售業。我們正在兩邊前進。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you. This does conclude the Q&A session and the conference of BBVA Argentina Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. We appreciate your participation and wish you a very good day.

（操作員指示）謝謝。這確實結束了 BBVA 阿根廷 2024 年第四季財報電話會議的問答環節和會議。我們感謝您的參與並祝您有個愉快的一天。