Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to BBVA Argentina's first-quarter 2025 results conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加 BBVA 阿根廷 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。

Today with us are Mr. Diego Cesarini, Head of ALM and Investor Relations; Mrs. Belen Fourcade, Investor Relations Manager; and Mrs. Carmen Morillo Arroyo, CFO, who will be available for the Q&A session.

今天與我們一起的有 ALM 和投資者關係主管 Diego Cesarini 先生、投資者關係經理 Belen Fourcade 女士以及首席財務官 Carmen Morillo Arroyo 女士，她們將出席問答環節。

This presentation and the first-quarter 2025 earnings release are available on BBVA's Investor Relations website, ir.bbva.com.ar, and will also be available for download in the chat.

此簡報和 2025 年第一季財報可在 BBVA 投資者關係網站 ir.bbva.com.ar 上查閱，也可在聊天中下載。

First of all, let me point out that some of the statements made during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe Harbor provisions found in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 under US federal security law.

首先我要指出的是，本次電話會議中的一些陳述可能是美國聯邦安全法下1933年證券法第27A節安全港條款所定義義的前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in BBVA Argentina's annual report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year 2024 filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions)

這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中表達的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在 BBVA 阿根廷向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2024 財政年度 20-F 表年度報告中。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Mrs. Belen Fourcade. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉給貝倫·福卡德女士。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you all for joining us today.

早安，感謝大家今天的參加。

The notable fiscal consolidation, monetary stringency, and relative exchange rate stability have contributed to a moderation process of inflation throughout 2024, which has continued at the beginning of 2025. Likewise, there are increasing signs of recovery in economic activity, which after falling 1.7% in 2024, would expand by around 5.5% in 2025, according to BBVA research. The prospects for inflation reduction have strengthened and the forecast is that it will converge to around 35% by the end of 2025.

顯著的財政整頓、貨幣緊縮和相對匯率穩定，促使通膨在 2024 年全年呈現緩和過程，並持續到 2025 年初。同樣，經濟活動復甦的跡像也越來越多，根據西班牙對外銀行的研究，在 2024 年下降 1.7% 之後，到 2025 年將成長約 5.5%。通膨下降的前景已經增強，預計2025年底通膨率將收斂到35%左右。

Recently, within the framework of a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, the lifting of a large part of the exchange controls and implementation of a floating exchange rate scheme with white banks were announced, which could contribute to the macroeconomic normalization process. Regarding the external environment, although the direct impact of US tariffs could be relatively limited, the economy could be affected by a less favorable global context.

近期，在與國際貨幣基金組織達成的新協議框架內，俄羅斯宣布取消大部分外匯管制，並實施與白銀掛鉤的浮動匯率制度，這可能有助於宏觀經濟正常化進程。就外部環境而言，儘管美國關稅的直接影響可能相對有限，但經濟可能會受到全球環境不利的影響。

Before moving on to this quarter's business dynamics and results, I would like to comment on the new global strategy of the BBVA Group for the 2025-2029 cycle. This has been launched arising from an institutional reflection after the closing of the 2020-2024 strategic plan, which was successful in terms of growth and profitability. This redesign responds to a new global context characterized by macroeconomic stabilization, geopolitical transformation, and population aging, which poses challenges and opportunities in credit and deposit management.

在介紹本季的業務動態和業績之前，我想先評論一下 BBVA 集團 2025-2029 週期的新全球策略。這是在 2020-2024 年戰略計劃結束後，機構反思後推出的，該計劃在增長和盈利方面取得了成功。這項重新設計響應了宏觀經濟穩定、地緣政治轉型和人口老化等新的全球背景，這為信貸和存款管理帶來了挑戰和機會。

In this context, the strategic priorities for 2025-2029 are focused on three main pillars. One, a radical customer-centric perspective. Two, value and capital generation and growth in a changing environment. And three, leveraging accelerators such as artificial intelligence for efficient data processing. These priorities are articulated with an evolution in cultural values towards behaviors with greater empathy and demand and a renewed purpose, support your desire to go further, which reinforces the active role of the customer as a central character of growth.

在此背景下，2025-2029年的策略重點集中在三大支柱上。一、徹底的以客戶為中心的觀點。二、在不斷變化的環境中創造和成長價值和資本。第三是利用人工智慧等加速器實現高效率的數據處理。這些優先事項與文化價值的演變相一致，即向具有更大同理心和需求的行為以及新的目標轉變，支持您更進一步的願望，從而強化客戶作為增長中心人物的積極作用。

Now moving on to business dynamics. As you can see on slide 4 of our webcast presentation, our service offering has evolved in such a way that by the end of March 2025, new customer acquisition through digital channels reached 86% versus 81% a year ago.

現在討論商業動態。正如您在我們網路廣播簡報的第 4 張投影片中所看到的，我們的服務產品已經發生了巨大的變化，到 2025 年 3 月底，透過數位管道獲得的新客戶比例達到了 86%，而一年前這一比例為 81%。

Retail digital sales measured in units reached 93% in the first quarter of 2025 and represent 86% of the bank's total sales measured in monetary value. Digitalization, which was previously a competitive advantage, has now become a market standard, while new and regulated players and disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence demand a redefinition of the differential value of the company's proposition.

2025 年第一季度，以單位計算的零售數位銷售額達到 93%，佔該銀行以貨幣價值計算的總銷售額的 86%。數位化曾經是一種競爭優勢，現在已成為市場標準，而新的、受監管的參與者以及人工智慧等顛覆性技術要求重新定義公司主張的差異化價值。

Moving on to slide 5 and 6, I will now comment on the bank's first-quarter 2025 financial results. BBVA Argentina's inflation adjusted net income in the first quarter of 2025 was ARS81.6 billion, increasing 16.2% quarter over quarter. This implied a quarterly ROE of 11.5% and a quarterly ROI of 2%. The 56.9% increase in quarterly operating results was explained by higher income and lower operating expenses.

接下來是投影片 5 和 6，我將對該銀行 2025 年第一季的財務表現進行評論。2025 年第一季度，BBVA 阿根廷銀行經通膨調整後的淨收入為 816 億阿根廷披索，季增 16.2%。這意味著季度 ROE 為 11.5%，季度 ROI 為 2%。季度營業業績成長 56.9% 是由於收入增加和營業費用減少。

Higher income was mainly due to: one, a substantial improvement in income from fees; and two, better net interest income. On the side of expenses, there was an improvement in all expenses lines, in particular, benefits to personnel and other operating income. It should be noted that the income tax line in the first quarter of 2024 reflects a positive result, derived from a change in accounting exposure that implied a reclassification of the income tax calculation from other comprehensive income to the income statement.

收入增加主要由於：一、手續費收入大幅改善；二、淨利息收入較好。在費用方面，所有費用項目都有所改善，特別是員工福利和其他營業收入。值得注意的是，2024 年第一季的所得稅項目反映了正結果，這是由於會計風險的變化導致所得稅計算從其他綜合收入重新分類到損益表。

Net income from the net monetary position was 10.7% lower quarter over quarter thanks to a lower net monetary position, which offset the increase in quarter inflation, which was 8.57% versus 8.03% in the first quarter of 2024.

由於淨貨幣部位較低，淨貨幣部位淨收入較上季下降 10.7%，抵銷了季度通膨率的上升（2024 年第一季為 8.57%，而 2024 年第一季為 8.03%）。

Turning into our P&L lines in slide 6, net interest income was ARS541.3 billion, increasing 3.3% quarter over quarter. In the first quarter of 2025, net interest income decreased less than interest in expenses in monetary terms. The former decreased due to lower income from public securities, especially CPI-linked bonds. Expenses decreased due to lower term deposit expenses, mainly due to lower rates and interest-bearing checking accounts expenses as the rates of these products have also declined.

請參閱投影片 6 的損益表，淨利息收入為 5,413 億阿根廷披索，季增 3.3%。2025年第一季度，以貨幣計算，淨利息收入的降幅小於利息支出的降幅。前者因公共證券收入（尤其是與消費者物價指數掛鉤的債券）減少而下降。費用減少是由於定期存款費用降低，這主要是由於利率降低以及有利息的支票帳戶費用減少，因為這些產品的利率也下降了。

Interest from time deposits explained 74.4% of interest expenses versus 67.9% the previous quarter. Net income as of the first quarter of 2025 total ARS99.8 billion, increasing 48.3% quarter over quarter. Fee income totaled ARS180.1 billion, increasing 20.7% quarter over quarter. Higher income is mainly explained by credit card fees, considering a revision of provisions linked to the Millas BBVA loyalty program. It is important to note the increase in fees linked to loans, fees from insurance, and fees linked to loan commitments. The latter related to income from structuring of syndicated loans.

定期存款利息佔利息支出的 74.4%，而上一季為 67.9%。截至 2025 年第一季度，淨收入總計 998 億阿根廷比索，季增 48.3%。費用收入總計1,801億阿根廷比索，較上季成長20.7%。考慮到與 Millas BBVA 忠誠度計劃相關的條款的修訂，收入增加的主要原因是信用卡費用。值得注意的是與貸款相關的費用、保險費用以及與貸款承諾相關的費用增加。後者與銀團貸款結構收入有關。

On the side of fee expenses, this totaled ARS80.8 billion, decreasing 1.9% quarter over quarter. This is mainly explained by lower expenses on payroll promotion campaigns, followed by lower expenses from foreign trade transactions.

費用支出方面，總額為 808 億阿根廷比索，季減 1.9%。主要原因是薪資促銷活動費用降低，其次是外貿交易費用降低。

In the first quarter of 2025, loan loss allowances increased 4.9%, explained by the real growth of the loan book in the quarter, which implied higher provisioning. During the first quarter of 2025, total operating expenses were ARS423.8 billion, decreasing 13.8% quarter over quarter, of which 29% were personal benefit costs. Personal benefits decreased 23% quarter over quarter. In spite of wages increasing in line with inflation, the fourth quarter of 2024 was highly impacted by severance expenses and the adjustment of provisions recorded for stock of vacation days and variable remuneration, which were not present in the first quarter of 2025, reducing overall expenses.

2025 年第一季度，貸款損失準備金增加了 4.9%，這是因為該季度貸款帳簿的實際增長意味著撥備增加。2025 年第一季度，總營運費用為 4,238 億阿根廷比索，較上季下降 13.8%，其中 29% 為個人福利成本。個人福利季減23%。儘管薪資隨通貨膨脹而成長，但 2024 年第四季受到遣散費以及假期存量和可變薪資撥備調整的嚴重影響，而這些費用在 2025 年第一季並不存在，從而減少了總體支出。

Administrative expenses decreased 4.3% quarter over quarter. This is mainly explained by: one, taxes; two, software; and three, rent. Rent and software are related to expenses of software licenses and services contracted with the parent company. In the case of taxes, the fall is mainly explained by an accounting reclassification of taxes linked to the health and safety, which, as of this quarter, are now recorded in the turnover tax line in other operating expenses pursuant to the nature of expense.

管理費用較上季下降4.3%。主要有：一、稅金；二、軟體；三、租金。租金和軟體與與母公司簽約的軟體許可和服務費用有關。就稅收而言，下降的主要原因是與健康和安全相關的稅收的會計重新分類，自本季度起，這些稅收根據費用性質記錄在其他營業費用的營業稅行中。

The accumulated efficiency ratio as of the first quarter of 2025 was 56.3%, below the 62.2% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the 65.4% reporting in the first quarter of 2024. The decrease in this ratio is due to a decrease in expenses and an increase in income, especially fee income and lower result from the net monetary position.

截至 2025 年第一季的累計效率比率為 56.3%，低於 2024 年第四季報告的 62.2% 和 2024 年第一季報告的 65.4%。此比率的下降是由於支出減少、收入增加，尤其是費用收入和淨貨幣狀況的下降。

Private loans as of the first quarter of 2025 totaled ARS9.2 trillion, increasing 11.2% quarter over quarter. Loans to the private sector in pesos increased 8.3% in the first quarter of 2025. During the quarter, growth is observed in most lines, but was especially driven by: one, a 22.9% increase in consumer loans, followed by two, an 18.4% increase in overdrafts, and three, a 16.2% increase in other loans.

截至 2025 年第一季度，私人貸款總額為 9.2 兆阿根廷比索，較上季成長 11.2%。2025 年第一季度，私部門的比索貸款成長了 8.3%。本季度，大多數業務均出現成長，但主要推動因素包括：一、消費貸款成長 22.9%；二、透支貸款成長 18.4%；三、其他貸款成長 16.2%。

A 23.1% growth in mortgages is to be noted, considering the continuous progress in this product, which was relaunched by mid 2024. In all cases, the increment is boosted by genuine growth in real terms of the portfolio, levered on relative stability of market interest rates.

考慮到該產品的持續進步（於 2024 年中期重新推出），抵押貸款增加了 23.1%。在所有情況下，增量都是由投資組合的實際成長所推動的，並藉助市場利率的相對穩定性。

Loans to the private sector denominated in foreign currency increased 25.4% quarter over quarter. Quarterly increase is mainly explained by a 21.4% growth in financing and pre-financing of exports and a 53.7% growth in other loans, the latter linked to financing of investment projects.

私部門外幣貸款較上季成長25.4%。季度成長主要由於出口融資和預融資成長 21.4% 以及其他貸款成長 53.7%，後者與投資項目融資有關。

During the quarter, the commercial portfolio grew 12.5% and the retail portfolio increased 9.5%. The commercial portfolio represents 57.1% of the total portfolio from 52.5% a year ago. In nominal terms, BBVA Argentina managed to increase the retail commercial and total loan portfolio by 19%, 22%, and 23% respectively during the quarter, surpassing quarterly inflation levels in all cases.

本季，商業投資組合成長 12.5%，零售投資組合成長 9.5%。商業投資組合佔總投資組合的 57.1%，而一年前這一比例為 52.5%。從名義上看，BBVA 阿根廷銀行本季的零售商業和總貸款組合分別成長了 19%、22% 和 23%，均超過了季度通膨水準。

As of the first quarter of 2025, the total gross loans and other financing over deposit ratio was 84.7%, above the 77.5% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 and above the 55.9% in the first quarter of 2024. Participation of total loans over assets is 56% versus 51% in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 32% in the fourth quarter of 2024, evidencing a lower exposure to the public sector in line with the real growth of credit demand.

截至 2025 年第一季，總貸款及其他融資與存款比率為 84.7%，高於 2024 年第四季的 77.5%，也高於 2024 年第一季的 55.9%。總貸款與資產的參與率為 56%，而 2024 年第四季為 51%，2024 年第四季為 32%，顯示公共部門的曝險較低，與信貸需求的實際成長一致。

BBVA Argentina's consolidated market share of private sector loans reached 11.28% as of the first quarter of 2025, improving from 10.10% a year ago and sustaining the two-digit figure. As of the first quarter of 2025, asset quality ratio keeps a good performance at 1.38%, increasing quarter over quarter, mainly due to seasonal arrears in credit cards. Commercial NPLs remain with a very good behavior.

截至 2025 年第一季度，BBVA 阿根廷私部門貸款綜合市場佔有率達到 11.28%，較一年前的 10.10% 有所提高，並維持了兩位數的成長。截至2025年一季度，資產品質率保持良好表現，為1.38%，環比有所上升，主要由於信用卡季節性欠款。商業不良貸款仍然表現良好。

On the funding side, as of the first quarter of 2025, total deposits reached ARS11 trillion, increasing 1.8% quarter over quarter. The bank's consolidated market share of private deposits as of the first quarter of 2025 reached 9.15% compared to 7.37% a year ago.

資金方面，截至2025年第一季，總存款達11兆阿根廷披索，季增1.8%。截至 2025 年第一季度，該銀行的私人存款綜合市佔率達到 9.15%，去年同期為 7.37%。

Private non-financial sector deposits in pesos totaled ARS7.4 trillion, increasing 7.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. The quarterly change is mainly affected by a 163.1% increase in investment accounts and a 2.5% increase in checking accounts, mainly explained by higher funding. Private non-financial sector deposits in foreign currency expressed in pesos increased 0.8% quarter over quarter. This is mainly explained by a 20.9% increase in time deposits, partially offset by a 0.4% fall in savings accounts.

私人非金融部門比索存款總額為 7.4 兆阿根廷比索，與 2024 年第四季相比成長 7.8%。季度變化主要受到投資帳戶增加 163.1% 和支票帳戶增加 2.5% 的影響，主要歸因於資金增加。以比索表示的私人非金融部門外幣存款較上季成長 0.8%。這主要是因為定期存款增加了 20.9%，但儲蓄帳戶減少了 0.4%，從而部分抵消了這一增長。

BBVA Argentina continues to show strong solvency indicators on the first quarter of 2025. Capital ratio reached 21.5%. Capital excess of a regulatory requirement was ARS1.5 trillion or 161.3%. In spite of the genuine growth in the loan book, which generated greater requirements, this effect was largely offset by a central bank regulation which changed operational risk requirements, now aligned to Basel for regulations. These requirements fell considerably by 94.4%, improving the capital ratio by 202 basis points.

2025 年第一季度，BBVA 阿根廷銀行持續展現強勁的償付能力指標。資本適足率達21.5%。資本超額達到監理要求1.5兆阿根廷比索，即161.3%。儘管貸款帳簿確實有所增長，從而產生了更大的需求，但這種影響在很大程度上被央行監管所抵消，該監管改變了操作風險要求，目前已與巴塞爾協議的監管保持一致。這些要求大幅下降了 94.4%，資本充足率提高了 202 個基點。

The first quarter in 2025 total public sector exposure, excluding central bank, totaled ARS2.8 trillion, decreasing 2.9% quarter by quarter. The annual increase is mainly explained by a greater increment of public exposure to the treasury in detriment of central bank risk exposure. Exposure to the public sector, excluding central bank exposure represents 17.1% of total assets below the 17.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with real loan growth demand.

2025年第一季度，不包括中央銀行的公共部門總風險敞口為2.8兆阿根廷比索，季減2.9%。年度成長的主要原因是，公共部門國庫敞口增加，而中央銀行風險敞口減少。不包括中央銀行風險敞口的公共部門風險敞口佔總資產的 17.1%，低於 2024 年第四季的 17.9%，與實際貸款成長需求一致。

In the quarter, liquid assets were ARS5.4 trillion, decreasing 13.3% quarter over quarter. This was mainly driven by a 20.1% decline in cash and deposits in banks and a 12.5% fall in public securities. As of the date of this report, the bank has announced the payment of dividends in cash or in kind. The total amount to be paid will be ARS89.4 billion expressed in a homogeneous currency as of December 31, 2024. And according to central bank regulations, it must be updated by inflation on the payment date.

本季度，流動資產為5.4兆阿根廷比索，季減13.3%。這主要是由於銀行現金和存款下降20.1%以及公共證券下降12.5%。截至本報告日，該行已宣布以現金或實物形式派發股利。以2024年12月31日的同質貨幣計算，應付總額為894億阿根廷比索。並且根據央行規定，必須在付款日根據通貨膨脹進行更新。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now take your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將回答大家的提問。接線員，請打開熱線以回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Brian Flores, Citi.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行的 Brian Flores。

Hi, team, good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have -- the first one is related to guidance, because it seems that there were some moving pieces, as you mentioned, the implementation of the regulation in March. It seems that real long growth is actually running well ahead of perhaps very optimistic expectations. So from what we remember that you mentioned in the last quarter, you were expecting to grow between 60%, 65% in real terms. Deposits growing around 40% in real terms, they seem to be maybe growing a bit less and with, and I don't know if your expectation of ROE has changed a bit, but I just wanted to hear from you, given the obviously very dynamic economic environment, if any of the guidance lines that I just mentioned is also changed?

嗨，團隊，早安。感謝您給我提問的機會。我有—第一個問題與指導有關，因為正如您所提到的，三月法規的實施似乎有些變動。看來實際長期成長其實遠遠超出了非常樂觀的預期。因此，根據我們記得您在上個季度提到的情況，您預計實際成長率將在 60% 到 65% 之間。存款實際增長約為 40%，但似乎增長速度略低一些，而且，我不知道您對 ROE 的預期是否有所改變，但我只是想听聽您的意見，鑑於顯然非常活躍的經濟環境，我剛才提到的任何指導方針是否也發生了變化？

And then this is the second question, perhaps an extension of the first. It's on capital, right? Because you have a benefit above 200 bps due to the regulation. I just wanted to ask you if, thinking about a 15% Tier 1 ratio by the end of the year that already incorporates this, let's say benefit, one-time benefit due to the regulation. Thank you.

這是第二個問題，也許是第一個問題的延伸。是在首都吧？因為根據監管規定，您可獲得 200 個基點以上的收益。我只是想問一下，考慮到今年年底的 15% 一級比率是否已經包含了這項福利，可以說是根據法規產生的一次性福利。謝謝。

Yes, hello, Brian. This is Diego Cesarini. I will address your questions. Well, to start with, regarding loans, we have revised a little downwards our provision. We think that we're thinking about growth in real terms of around 45% to 50% for the year. That is in line with our 11% growth in the first quarter. Regarding deposits, we are also revising downwards. We are seeing around 25% in real terms, and we are still keeping our ROE guidance in between the mid-teens to [bias] to low teens.

是的，你好，布萊恩。這是 Diego Cesarini。我將解答你的問題。嗯，首先，關於貸款，我們稍微下調了我們的撥備。我們認為今年的實際成長率將在 45% 至 50% 左右。這與我們第一季 11% 的成長率一致。關於存款，我們也在下調。我們實際看到的比例約為 25%，我們仍將 ROE 指引保持在 15% 左右至 15% 左右之間。

And regarding capital, yes, it's true that we have -- our projection has been improved a little. We are now forecasting, by December, a ratio around between 16% and 16.5%. When we were talking about 15%, we had this operational risk improvement in our consideration, but, well, the improvement that we are showing right now is regarding the performance of loans, which we are revising down to 45% to 50%.

至於資本，是的，我們的預測確實有所改善。我們現在預測，到 12 月份，這一比例將在 16% 至 16.5% 之間。當我們談論 15% 時，我們考慮到了營運風險的改善，但是，我們現在顯示的改善是關於貸款表現的，我們將其下調至 45% 至 50%。

Thank you, Diego, very clear. If I can make a follow-up, so you're revising two lines in growth, right, deposits and loans by double digits? So just wanted to -- if you could expand a bit on the rationale behind it, is it more on maybe lower risk appetite? Is it more on perhaps your internal expectations of lower dynamism in the economy? Just wanted to understand a bit more on the nature of the revision.

謝謝你，迭戈，非常清楚。如果我可以繼續提問的話，那麼您會修改成長中的兩條線，對嗎，存款和貸款的成長率都是兩位數？所以只是想——如果您可以稍微解釋一下背後的原因，是否更多的是因為風險偏好較低？這是否更取決於您對經濟活力降低的內部預期？只是想進一步了解修訂的性質。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our risk appetite hasn't changed. What we are seeing is that probably liquidity could be a little concerned this year as the government is keeping a very restrictive monetary policy. It's just that.

我們的風險偏好沒有改變。我們看到的是，由於政府維持非常嚴格的貨幣政策，今年的流動性可能有點令人擔憂。只是如此。

We expect that policy to continue for some months. We have some excess of liquidity that we can still use, so we are not worried in the short term, probably for one or two quarters. We can keep growing even if deposits grow below loans, but then of course, we are not certain when this policy will change. So we are being a little more conservative on growth just for that.

我們預計該政策將持續數月。我們還有一些剩餘的流動性可以使用，因此我們短期內（可能一兩個季度內）並不擔心。即使存款成長低於貸款成長，我們仍能維持成長，但當然，我們不確定這項政策何時會改變。因此，我們在成長方面會更加保守一些。

Okay. Super clear. Thank you.

好的。超級清晰。謝謝。

Pedro Leduc, Itau BBA.

佩德羅·勒杜克（Pedro Leduc），伊塔烏 BBA。

Hi, Belen, Diego, thank you very much for taking the question. Congratulations on the numbers. Two quick ones. First, on SG&A, we had a nice decline there in real terms, year over year, QoQ. If you can help us see through the remainder of the year, if this is a trend that's likely to continue?

你好，貝倫、迭戈，非常感謝你們回答這個問題。恭喜你取得這些數字。兩個簡單的。首先，就銷售、一般及行政費用而言，我們的實際支出與去年同期相比、較上季都有大幅下降。如果您能幫助我們預測今年剩餘時間的情況，這種趨勢是否會持續下去？

And then second, on your NIMs, well, they've been declining obviously, but declined a lot less this quarter than they had in the last ones. So if you're already seeing the end of the transition in NIMs within your asset base, and maybe when can we expect this to start taking up again?

其次，關於您的 NIM，嗯，它們顯然一直在下降，但本季的下降幅度比上一季小得多。因此，如果您已經看到資產基礎中 NIM 的轉變結束，那麼我們什麼時候可以預期它會再次開始呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, Pedro, this is Diego again. Well, I couldn't listen very well to your first question regarding your -- I will ask you to repeat, but regarding your second question, NIMs have fallen around 100 basis points this quarter comparing with fourth quarter of last year. If you consider those NIMs in both currency, they have fallen even less. We have some changes in the mix, dollar activity is [weighting] a little more than the previous quarter. And also, if you consider that monetary policy rates have fallen around 600 basis points on average, we see that NIMs have not fallen so much.

你好，佩德羅，我又是迭戈。嗯，我沒能聽清楚你的第一個問題——我請你重複一遍，但關於你的第二個問題，與去年第四季相比，本季的淨利差下降了約 100 個基點。如果考慮兩種貨幣的淨利息收益率 (NIM)，則降幅甚至更小。我們的結構有一些變化，美元活動的權重比上一季略高。此外，如果考慮到貨幣政策利率平均下降了約 600 個基點，我們會發現淨利差並沒有下降那麼多。

As we have said before, NIMs at the beginning of last year were abnormally high, they have normalized, and you have to consider that part of these high NIMs having an account that we have inflation, high inflation rates are high because of inflation mainly. And for the rest of the year, if we consider that inflation should keep going down, we should expect some decrease, more decrease in NIMs, but the speed of that decrease will not be, of course, the same as last year. We are expecting some soft decrease in those figures.

正如我們之前所說，去年年初的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 異常高，現在已經恢復正常，你必須考慮到這些高額 NIM 中有一部分是通貨膨脹造成的，高通貨膨脹率主要是因為通貨膨脹。而在今年剩餘時間內，如果我們認為通膨率應該繼續下降，我們應該預期淨利差會下降，甚至進一步下降，但下降的速度當然不會與去年相同。我們預計這些數字會略有下降。

It's very clear. Thank you. And the first question was on SG&A, if we should continue to see the real term declines in overall SG&A this year?

非常清楚。謝謝。第一個問題是關於銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 的，我們是否會繼續看到今年整體銷售、一般和行政費用的實際下降？

Hi, Pedro, sorry, could you repeat because we are not getting the first part?

你好，佩德羅，抱歉，你能重複一遍嗎，因為我們沒有聽到第一部分？

In regards to SG&As for personnel and other admin expenses, if they should continue declining in real terms this year as we saw in the first quarter?

關於人員和其他管理費用的銷售、一般及行政費用，今年是否會像我們在第一季看到的那樣繼續實際下降？

You mean the improvement in expenses, you say administrative expenses? In benefits to the personnel, the main contrast has to do with severance costs that you had in the fourth quarter of 2024 and in 2024 overall. I mean, you had a rotation of C-level employees, so that had a cost, and you're not going to see that during 2025. That was the main moving line.

您的意思是費用的改善，您說的是管理費用嗎？在員工福利方面，主要的對比與 2024 年第四季和 2024 年全年的遣散費有關。我的意思是，C 級員工是輪調的，所以這會產生成本，而你在 2025 年不會看到這種情況。那是主要的動線。

And in the case of administrative expenses, we had a reclassification in the line of taxes that has to do with taxes related to health and safety. It's a specific tax here in Argentina and because of the nature of that expense, we decided to reclass -- I mean, take it from that line on to other operating expenses in the line of turnover tax. So that was the main -- what moved the quarter.

就管理費用而言，我們對與健康和安全相關的稅收進行了重新分類。這是阿根廷的一項特定稅，由於該費用的性質，我們決定重新分類 - 我的意思是，將其從該類別轉移到營業稅類別中的其他營運費用。這就是本季的主要動向。

In terms of expenses, of course, this is a one-shot in the sense that this reclassification will already be set for the next quarters. And then you had -- we did have lower costs on the side of rent and software that has to do mainly with payments to the parent company, but that has to do with lower provisions that we made on the FX exchange rate, at which we value these costs.

當然，就費用而言，這是一次性的，因為這種重新分類將已經確定了下個季度的計劃。然後，您發現 - 我們在租金和軟體方面的成本確實較低，這主要與向母公司支付的費用有關，但這與我們根據外匯匯率做出的較低準備金有關，我們以此來評估這些成本。

Carlos Gomez, HSBC.

卡洛斯‧戈麥斯，匯豐銀行。

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. First one refers to the -- as you mentioned, the mix in the loan portfolio and the fact that you have been lending more in dollars. First, is that because there's more demand for dollars or there's actually more availability of funding for dollars? And what do you expect the dollar portfolio to be this year and next year? Will it continue to grow as a percentage of the total?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個指的是—正如您所提到的，貸款組合的組成以及您以美元貸款增加的事實。首先，這是因為美元的需求增加，還是因為美元資金實際上增加了？您預計今年和明年的美元投資組合將會如何？其佔總量的比例還會繼續成長嗎？

Second, I don't think you have told us your economic assumptions. Can you remind us what do you expect for inflation and for the currency for this year and next year? Thank you.

第二，我認為你沒有告訴我們你的經濟假設。您能否提醒我們您對今年和明年的通貨膨脹和貨幣有何預期？謝謝。

Hello, Carlos. How are you? Well, regarding our mix of loans, well, as we said, we grew more in dollars. We grew 25% in the quarter in real terms, and we grew just 8% in real terms in the peso activity. We have seen more demand in this currency in dollars. But for the coming months, what we have to think is that the financial system as a whole and even our bank has some strong and conservative policies regarding this currency.

你好，卡洛斯。你好嗎？嗯，關於我們的貸款組合，正如我們所說，我們的美元貸款增長更多。以實際價值計算，本季我們的成長了 25%，而以實際價值計算，比索活動僅成長了 8%。我們看到美元對這種貨幣的需求增加。但在接下來的幾個月裡，我們必須考慮的是，整個金融體系甚至我們的銀行對這種貨幣都有一些強而有力的保守政策。

We have faced some runoffs of deposits in the past that were very heavy. So we are, at the moment, we cannot expect the same speed of growth in dollar activity that we have seen in the first quarter. It will depend on funding. We are ready to see what the government is going to announce regarding dollars that could benefit our funding. We don't know. We have heard just rumors and they are just announcing this at this moment. But to make it short, we should not expect the same degree of growth in this currency.

我們過去曾面臨過非常嚴重的存款流失問題。因此，目前我們無法預期美元活動會以第一季那樣的速度成長。這將取決於資金情況。我們已準備好觀察政府將宣布哪些可能有利於我們融資的資金。我們不知道。我們聽到的只是謠言，他們現在才宣布這個消息。但簡而言之，我們不應該期望這種貨幣會達到同樣程度的成長。

And regarding our economic assumptions, our research department right now is expecting a 5.5 GDP growth this year and 35% inflation.

關於我們的經濟假設，我們研究部門目前預計今年的 GDP 成長率為 5.5%，通貨膨脹率為 35%。

And the exchange rate?

匯率呢？

The exchange is a little below 1,400.

匯率略低於 1,400。

For this year and for next year? I know nobody knows, but what do you have?

今年和明年呢？我知道沒人知道，但你有什麼？

Probably it will grow in line with inflation. It will be a little below 1,700.

它可能會隨著通貨膨脹而增長。它將略低於 1,700。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

(Operator Instructions) Jorge Mauro, Fundamenta.

（操作員說明）Jorge Mauro，Fundamenta。

Hi, my question is regarding the growth of credit by product. When you look at credit cards, it barely grew this reported in real terms. So I just wanted to understand what's your view? I mean, do you think that there is potential for credit cards or because this is a problem that has been mainstream for longer period of time historically, there is much less growth than in other products. How are you approaching this?

您好，我的問題是關於產品信貸成長的問題。當你查看信用卡時，你會發現它的實際成長幅度幾乎沒有達到預期。所以我只是想了解你的觀點是什麼？我的意思是，您是否認為信用卡有潛力，或者因為這個問題在歷史上已經存在很長一段時間了，所以它的增長速度比其他產品要低得多。您如何處理這個問題？

Hi, Jorge. Well, regarding the -- the financial system has been very small. It is still very small for many years and very based on transactions in the past. In that context, credit card was the product bank used to make contact with new customers. And people's decisions were also very short and based. So that's where we mainly grew credit cards, loans weighed around 40% or 45% of our balance sheet or loan base two or three years ago.

你好，豪爾赫。嗯，關於──金融體系一直很小。多年來，它的規模仍然很小，並且非常依賴過去的交易。在這種背景下，信用卡是銀行用來聯絡新客戶的產品。人們的決策也非常簡短且有依據。因此，這就是我們主要成長信用卡業務的地方，兩三年前，貸款占我們資產負債表或貸款基礎的 40% 或 45% 左右。

And that is changing for good. People with stability, people are taking more long-term decisions, so we are seeing more growth in consumer loans, car loans, mortgages, and so we do not want to stop our growth on credit cards, but other products will grow more, probably in the coming years. So that is mainly our opinion on this subject.

而這種情況正在發生徹底的改變。人們有了穩定性，人們正在做出更多的長期決策，所以我們看到消費貸款、汽車貸款、抵押貸款的成長，所以我們不想停止信用卡的成長，但其他產品的成長會更快，可能在未來幾年。這就是我們對這個問題的主要看法。

Okay, but do you think that credit cards still has potential or the level we have seen today is the great penetration of credit cards that Argentina may have? So very limited growth in a way?

好的，但是您認為信用卡仍然具有潛力嗎？或者我們今天看到的水平是阿根廷可能擁有的信用卡的巨大普及率嗎？那麼從某種程度上來說成長非常有限？

No, we think that we -- they still have potential, but as I said before, mortgages come from scratch. They weigh nothing in banks' balance sheets. The same happens with other long-term loans, so they should grow more. Credit cards will still -- we think that they will still be growing above inflation, but not as much as the other lines. In the case of our bank, we are strong on credit cards. We have a market share that is above our average market share, so we feel very comfortable with that level and probably we will keep that high market share in the future.

不，我們認為它們仍然有潛力，但正如我之前所說，抵押貸款是從零開始的。它們在銀行資產負債表中毫無意義。其他長期貸款也存在同樣的情況，因此它們應該增長更多。我們認為信用卡的成長速度仍將高於通貨膨脹率，但不會像其他信用卡那麼快。就我們銀行而言，我們的信用卡業務實力雄厚。我們的市場份額高於平均市場份額，因此我們對這個水平感到非常滿意，並且未來我們可能會保持這一高市場份額。

Brian Flores, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Brian Flores。

Hi, team, just a quick follow-up on the last question. I think it's a very interesting point. So just wanted to understand, are you seeing on average, the duration of your portfolio already increasing or is this something that should happen still? Just wanted to understand how quickly this could be happening or not. Thank you.

嗨，團隊，我只是想快速跟進最後一個問題。我認為這是一個非常有趣的觀點。所以只是想了解一下，您是否看到平均而言，您的投資組合的持續時間已經在增加，或者這種情況是否仍會發生？只是想了解這是否會發生得快。謝謝。

Hi, Brian. Yes, we see that our duration is increasing, mainly because of consumer loans. We have also grown last year and this year on SMEs loans that have longer terms than we had in the past. In the past, the usual product for an SME was a discount of checks, documents, very short term, 60 days, 90 days. And since mid-year of 2024, we have seen more demand on investing lines.

你好，布萊恩。是的，我們看到我們的期限在增加，主要是因為消費貸款。去年和今年，我們的中小企業貸款也實現了成長，貸款期限也比過去更長。過去，中小企業通常獲得的產品是支票、文件的折扣，期限非常短，60天、90天。自 2024 年中期以來，我們看到投資線路的需求增加。

So, yes, it's definitely -- the duration is growing. On average, we are still short in our presentation, we have some figures or some charts regarding durations and you can see that most of our loans still are below one year tenure. But in the future, we can expect duration to go longer. We are also growing on mortgages, still very -- it doesn't represent an important part of our loan portfolio, but in the future, we can also expect that line to weigh more.

所以，是的，持續時間肯定在增加。平均而言，我們的介紹仍然很短，我們有一些關於期限的數字或圖表，你可以看到我們的大多數貸款期限仍然低於一年。但在未來，我們可以預期持續時間會更長。我們的抵押貸款也在成長，雖然它在我們的貸款組合中還不是很重要，但在未來，我們預計這一部分會佔比更大。

Perfect. I'm sorry for the follow-on here but on the last point, do you think securitization or the ability to do securitization is, I would say, a requirement for us to see mortgages in your portfolio to really gain relevance or for even for the system?

完美的。很抱歉在這裡追問，但關於最後一點，您是否認為證券化或進行證券化的能力是我們在您的投資組合中看到抵押貸款真正具有相關性甚至對系統具有相關性的必要條件？

Well, we think that you cannot keep this level of growth in mortgages in the long term if we do not have a long-term funding. Securitization is one alternative, but also could have a -- as in other countries, some long-term bond market. We have that in Argentina, but it's still very shallow market with small volume, short terms.

嗯，我們認為，如果我們沒有長期資金，就無法長期維持這種抵押貸款成長水準。證券化是一種選擇，但也可以像其他國家一樣，有一些長期債券市場。我們在阿根廷有這樣的市場，但市場仍然很淺，交易量小，期限短。

For example, you cannot issue a bond of more than 1.5 or 2 years and volumes would still be very low. So, yes, definitely, we need some change in funding to keep this trend in mortgages. At this moment, we cannot be sure that that will happen.

例如，您不能發行期限超過 1.5 年或 2 年的債券，而且發行量仍然會非常低。所以，是的，我們確實需要在融資方面做出一些改變，以保持抵押貸款的這種趨勢。目前，我們還不能確定這是否會發生。

But if we think that Argentina is normalizing, our capital markets should also get more complex and some long-term investors should be able to buy mortgages or to provide us with some long-term funding. That is our expectation in the short term and mid-term. We can still grow on these lines, but for the long term, we need some changes in our funding.

但如果我們認為阿根廷正在正常化，我們的資本市場也應該變得更加複雜，一些長期投資者應該能夠購買抵押貸款或為我們提供一些長期資金。這是我們的短期和中期預期。我們仍然可以沿著這些路線發展，但從長遠來看，我們需要在資金方面做出一些改變。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Please hold while we pull for questions. We are showing no further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer section. I would now like to turn it over to BBVA's team for closing remarks.

我們正在回答問題，請稍等。目前我們沒有其他問題。問答部分到此結束。現在我想將發言權交給 BBVA 團隊來做最後發言。

Well, thank you all for joining us today and if you have any further questions, do not hesitate to reach out. Have a nice day. Have a nice week. Thank you.

好吧，感謝大家今天加入我們，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我們聯繫。祝你今天過得愉快。祝你有個愉快的一周。謝謝。

This concludes the presentation. You may disconnect now and have a nice day.

演講到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接並享受美好的一天。