Credicorp Ltd (BAP) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Credicorp Limited first quarter 2026 conference call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast which is available in the Investors section of Credicorp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位早安。歡迎各位參加 Credicorp Limited 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的網路直播將搭配投影片簡報,已上傳至 Credicorp 官網「投資人」專區。本次電話會議將進行錄音。(接線員指示)

  • Now it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Credicorp's IRO, Ms. Milagros Ciguenas, you may begin.

    現在我很高興將會議交給 Credicorp 的投資人關係主管(IRO)Milagros Ciguenas 女士,請開始。

  • Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer

    Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer

  • Thank you. And good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Executive Officer; and Alejandro Perez-Reyes, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating at the Q&A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer; Cesar Rios, Chief Risk Officer; and Eduardo Montero, Head of Insurance and Pensions.

    謝謝。各位早安。今天的電話會議將由我們的執行長 Gianfranco Ferrari 以及財務長 Alejandro Perez-Reyes 發言。問答環節也將由 Francesca Raffo(創新長)、Cesar Rios(風險長)以及 Eduardo Montero(保險與退休金事業主管)一同參與。

  • Before we proceed, I would like to make the following Safe Harbor statements. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and I refer you to the Forward-Looking Statements section on our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances.

    在開始之前,我想先做以下「安全港」聲明。今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,係基於管理階層目前的預期與信念,並可能受到多項風險與不確定性影響;請參閱我們的財報新聞稿以及近期向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交文件中的「前瞻性陳述」章節。我們不承擔更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述以反映新的或變更之事件或情況的義務。

  • Gianfranco Ferrari will begin the call with remarks on recent macro and political environment. the key levers of our decoupling strategy, and a brief overview of our quarterly results, followed by Alejandro Perez-Reyes, who will provide a more detailed analysis of key macroeconomic indicators, our financial performance. and our outlook for full year 2026.

    Gianfranco Ferrari 將先就近期的總體經濟與政治環境、我們去耦策略的關鍵槓桿,以及本季業績概覽發表談話;接著由 Alejandro Perez-Reyes 進一步就主要總體經濟指標、我們的財務表現,以及 2026 全年展望提供更詳細的分析。

  • Gianfranco, please go ahead.

    Gianfranco,請開始。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Milagros. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin by thanking our shareholders for the strong support at our recent Annual General meeting. The outcome of the Board elections reflects a deliberate strategy-led refreshment process, fully aligned with Credicorp's long-term priorities.

    謝謝你,Milagros。各位早安,感謝各位今天加入我們。首先,我要感謝股東在近期股東常會上給予我們強力支持。董事會選舉結果反映出一項審慎、以策略為導向的汰換更新流程,並與 Credicorp 的長期優先事項完全一致。

  • As announced, shareholders approved the appointment of three new directors and the reelection of six current members. The new directors bring complementary expertise in areas that are increasingly critical for us, particularly technology and AI, financial and regulatory oversight, and strategic execution as we continue advancing our transformation and strengthening our operating model.

    如先前宣布,股東核准委任三位新董事,並同意六位現任董事連任。新任董事在多個對我們日益關鍵的領域帶來互補專長,特別是科技與 AI、財務與法規監督,以及策略執行;這將有助於我們持續推進轉型並強化營運模式。

  • Importantly, our governance framework remains robust with key safeguards firmly in place, including a fully independent Audit Committee and independent directors leading critical committees. This provides a strong foundation as we navigate different operating environments.

    重要的是,我們的公司治理架構仍然穩健,關鍵防護機制也已牢固到位,包括完全獨立的審計委員會,以及由獨立董事領導重要委員會。這為我們在不同營運環境中前行提供了堅實基礎。

  • At the global level, recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have increased uncertainty mainly through higher energy prices and the potential impact on inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Since our last conference call, Peru's economic activity has been affected by a series of temporary supply side shocks, including higher oil prices related to the conflict in the Middle East, a localized energy disruption, and adverse weather conditions that led to contraction in primary sectors.

    在全球層面,近期地緣政治緊張局勢,特別是在中東地區,透過能源價格上升以及對通膨與利率前景的潛在影響,增加了不確定性。自上次電話會議以來,秘魯經濟活動受到一系列暫時性的供給面衝擊影響,包括與中東衝突相關的油價上漲、局部能源中斷,以及不利天候導致第一級產業部門收縮。

  • That said, the positive momentum of the economy continues to remain solid. Several activities indicated including private investment, continued posting double-digit growth, supported by resilient macroeconomic fundamentals and favorable export prices, with copper currently trading at around $6.50 per pound.

    儘管如此,經濟的正向動能仍然穩固。多項活動指標(包括民間投資)持續呈現兩位數成長,受惠於具韌性的總體經濟基本面與有利的出口價格;目前銅價約為每磅 6.50 美元。

  • Against this backdrop, we're maintaining our GDP growth expectations for 2026 at around 3.5%, though our outlook has become more skewed to the downside, with recent macroeconomic indicators tracking closer to 3.2%. More importantly, domestic demand remains particularly dynamic growing above 4%, which we view as the more relevant driver for loan growth going forward.

    在此背景下,我們維持 2026 年 GDP 成長約 3.5% 的預期,但展望偏向下行的程度有所提高,近期總體經濟指標更接近 3.2%。更重要的是,內需仍然特別活絡,成長率高於 4%;我們認為這將是未來放款成長更相關的驅動因素。

  • As we await the official confirmation of results, the presidential runoff appears likely to feature candidates with markedly different economic visions, including one advocating for a significantly more interventionist role for the state. Should that candidate prevail some initial market uncertainty could emerge. However, we believe the composition of the Senate is a more decisive factor and it is trending towards a configuration that supports macroeconomic fundamentals and institutional continuity. In our view, this legislative balance will act as an effective counterweight helping to preserve political stability.

    在等待官方確認結果之際,總統決選看來可能由經濟願景明顯不同的候選人對決,其中一位主張國家扮演更具干預性的角色。若該候選人勝出,市場初期可能出現一定程度的不確定性。然而,我們認為參議院的組成是更具決定性的因素,而其走向正趨於支持總體經濟基本面與制度延續性的配置。在我們看來,這樣的立法權力平衡將形成有效的制衡力量,有助於維持政治穩定。

  • Peru's structural safeguards, including the Senate veto authority and constitutional hurdles to significant policy shifts are likely to act as effective constraints, helping preserve the independence of the Central Bank and its mandate, particularly regarding monetary financing to the treasury. Given this, we remain confident that Peru's economic model will continue to be resilient supported by solid institutional frameworks.

    秘魯的結構性防護機制,包括參議院否決權以及重大政策轉向所需面對的憲法門檻,預期將形成有效約束,有助於維持中央銀行的獨立性及其職責,特別是關於對國庫進行貨幣融通。基於此,我們仍有信心秘魯的經濟模式將持續展現韌性,並由穩固的制度架構所支撐。

  • Against this backdrop, we continue to closely monitor price dynamics and monetary conditions. Inflation has seen an uptick to 4% year-over-year mainly driven by transport, energy, and food costs. As a result, monetary conditions are likely to remain somewhat tighter than previously anticipated.

    在此背景下,我們持續密切關注價格動態與貨幣環境。通膨年增率已回升至 4%,主要由運輸、能源與食品成本推動。因此,貨幣環境可能將較先前預期維持更偏緊的狀態。

  • Across the region, the operating environment remains mixed, reflecting the initial impact of external pressures. In Colombia, activity remains relatively resilient, supported by consumption while policy uncertainty persists ahead of the presidential elections on May 31. In Chile, growth has softened amid weaker early year activity and higher oil prices. At the same time, the new government offers improved prospects for private investment.

    在區域層面,營運環境仍呈現分歧,反映外部壓力初步影響。在哥倫比亞,受消費支撐,經濟活動仍相對具韌性,但在 5 月 31 日總統大選前,政策不確定性仍然存在。在智利,年初活動偏弱加上油價上升,使成長動能轉弱。同時,新政府也為民間投資帶來較佳前景。

  • In Bolivia, macro conditions remain challenging with performance exceeding expectations. Overall, while external conditions remain dynamic, the resilience of our core markets, combined with the strength and the attractiveness of our offerings give us confidence that 2026 will remain a solid year.

    在玻利維亞,總體環境仍具挑戰,但表現優於預期。整體而言,雖然外部條件仍在變動,我們核心市場的韌性,加上我們產品與服務的實力與吸引力,使我們有信心 2026 年仍將是穩健的一年。

  • As we look ahead, we will further execute our decoupling strategy to our four differentiated growth anchors. First, we're strengthening our leading position in the underpenetrated market, where we continue to see clear avenues of growth. We see significant room for deepen -- to deepen financial inclusion and expand our reach across client segments where structural gaps persist. This enables us to grow while maintaining disciplined risk standards.

    展望未來,我們將進一步執行去耦策略,聚焦於四個差異化成長支柱。第一,我們將強化在滲透率仍偏低市場中的領先地位,並持續看到明確的成長途徑。我們認為在深化金融普惠、並擴大對仍存在結構性缺口之客群的觸及方面,仍有顯著空間。這使我們能在維持嚴謹風險標準的同時實現成長。

  • Second, we're scaling our integrated digital ecosystem. In 2026, we will leverage our platforms to accelerate client acquisition, deepen engagement and increased cross-sell while also improving efficiency and customer experience.

    第二,我們將擴大我們的整合式數位生態系。在 2026 年,我們將運用平台加速客戶獲取、深化互動並提升交叉銷售,同時改善效率與客戶體驗。

  • A key component in our innovation portfolio is our neobank unit, which effective April 1, brings together Yape and iO in Peru, Tenpo in Chile, and Yape in Bolivia, under a common umbrella, led by Raimundo Morales. These platforms expand our reach and open new avenues for growth, particularly in payments and lending. More broadly, we're deepening our competitive moat by leveraging our scale, client base, and ecosystem integration to drive sustained differentiation and progressively higher monetization.

    我們創新投資組合中的一項關鍵組成是我們的純網銀(neobank)事業單位,自 4 月 1 日起,將秘魯的 Yape 與 iO、智利的 Tenpo,以及玻利維亞的 Yape 納入同一架構之下,由 Raimundo Morales 領導。這些平台擴大了我們的觸及範圍,並開啟新的成長途徑,特別是在支付與放款領域。更廣泛而言,我們正透過運用規模、客戶基礎與生態系整合來加深競爭護城河,以推動持續差異化並逐步提高變現能力。

  • Third, we are unlocking synergies by leveraging shared capabilities across our ecosystem. We're placing greater emphasis on data, analytics, and risk management capabilities that can be deployed across businesses. This also includes advancing our knowledge sharing agenda so that these practices can be applied across subsidiaries, improving decision-making, client targeting, and risk assessment. While we are still in the early stages, we are already seeing tangible benefits, and we believe this represents a meaningful opportunity going forward.

    第三,我們正透過運用生態系內共享能力來釋放綜效。我們將更著重於可跨事業部署的資料、分析與風險管理能力。這也包括推進知識分享議程,使這些作法能在各子公司間落地應用,提升決策品質、客戶鎖定與風險評估。雖然我們仍處於早期階段,但已看到具體效益,我們相信這在未來代表一項重要機會。

  • Finally, delivering strong and resilient returns across economic cycles. This is underpinned by a prudent and holistic approach to risk and capital management across the organization. We continue to strengthen our capabilities across credit, liquidity, and operational risk, while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation. This integrated framework is translating into more consistent performance and reinforces our resilience, enhancing our ability to navigate volatility, support sustainable growth, and protect returns across different macro environments.

    最後,在各個經濟循環中提供強勁且具韌性的報酬。這建立在全組織審慎且全面的風險與資本管理方法之上。我們持續強化在信用、流動性與作業風險方面的能力,同時維持嚴謹的資本配置紀律。此一整合式架構正轉化為更一致的表現並強化我們的韌性,提升我們因應波動、支持永續成長,並在不同總體環境下保護報酬的能力。

  • Turning now to the first quarter results. We reported a very solid ROE of 21.1%, which exceeded expectations and reflects strong fundamentals across our core businesses. Operational performance was robust across core businesses. Additionally, we achieved 9% of risk-adjusted revenues from our innovation portfolio this quarter, advancing toward our 10% target by the end of this year.

    接著談第一季的結果。我們公布非常穩健的 ROE 21.1%,高於預期,反映核心業務的強勁基本面。核心業務的營運表現整體強勁。此外,本季我們的創新投資組合貢獻了 9% 的風險調整後收入,正朝今年底達成 10% 目標邁進。

  • We're seeing an acceleration of credit demand across our main lending segments. In the first quarter, loan growth was robust in BCP and Mibanco. We expect retail segments and microfinance to accelerate in the coming quarters. Risk-adjusted NIM strengthened sequentially supported by improved asset quality and a resilient underlying NIM as our loan portfolio expanded and funding mix improved.

    我們看到主要放款分部的信貸需求正在加速。第一季,BCP 與 Mibanco 的放款成長強勁。我們預期零售分部與微型金融將在未來幾季加速。在資產品質改善與基礎 NIM 具韌性的支撐下,風險調整後 NIM 較前一季走強,因為放款組合擴張且資金來源結構改善。

  • Deposit growth remained strong, reflecting system liquidity and sustained client confidence, while continued investments in service and digital capabilities deepened our client relationships and drove market share gains in low-cost funding, reaching 41.2% this quarter. Asset quality reflects proactive measures taken since 2023, including tighter origination standards, risk repricing, enhanced loan rising, and greater investments in analytics alongside a favorable macro environment. Additionally, our strong solvency has enabled us to increase our dividend to PLN50 per share while also supporting our plans for sustained long-term growth.

    存款成長維持強勁,反映體系流動性充裕與客戶信心持續;同時,我們持續投資服務與數位能力,深化客戶關係並帶動低成本資金市占提升,本季達到 41.2%。資產品質反映自 2023 年以來採取的主動措施,包括更嚴格的授信承作標準、風險重新定價、強化貸後監控,以及在有利的總體環境下加大對分析能力的投資。此外,我們強勁的資本適足也使我們得以將股利提高至每股 PLN50,同時支持我們長期持續成長的規劃。

  • Our efficiency ratio is at 45.8% with our guidance -- within our guidance range. Our strategic investments in innovation and digital capabilities continue to drive the diversified income streams and scalable growth through deeper market penetration. These results underscore the strength of our core operations and our long-term commitment to building a more agile client-centric and resilient financial platform.

    我們的效率比率為 45.8%,符合我們的指引——落在指引區間內。我們在創新與數位能力上的策略性投資,持續推動收入來源多元化,並透過更深的市場滲透帶來可擴張的成長。這些結果凸顯我們核心營運的實力,以及我們長期致力於打造更敏捷、以客戶為中心且更具韌性的金融平台。

  • Before I turn the call over to Alejandro, I would like to congratulate him on his appointment to lead our microfinance business and Mibanco. These transitions reflect the depth of talent we continue to build across Credicorp and our disciplined approach to succession planning and leadership development.

    在我把電話會議交給 Alejandro 之前,我想祝賀他獲任命領導我們的微型金融業務與 Mibanco。這些人事調整反映我們在 Credicorp 持續建立的人才厚度,以及我們在接班規劃與領導力培育上的紀律。

  • We're also very pleased that Ignacio Belaunde will assume the CFO role later this year, bringing strong financial and strategic experience to the position. In the meantime, we still have Alejandro with us for one more quarter of earning calls before this transition takes effect.

    我們也非常高興 Ignacio Belaunde 將於今年稍晚接任 CFO 一職,為該職位帶來深厚的財務與策略經驗。在此期間,Alejandro 仍將與我們一同參與接下來一季的法說電話會議,之後此項交接才會生效。

  • With that, Alejandro, please go ahead.

    那麼,Alejandro,請開始。

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you, Gianfranco. And good morning, everyone. As Gianfranco mentioned, we delivered remarkable overall operating results, including record high net income, which reflects solid growth in risk-adjusted revenue streams in our business ecosystem.

    謝謝你,Gianfranco。各位早安。如 Gianfranco 所提到,我們交出亮眼的整體營運成果,包括創新高的淨利,反映我們商業生態系中風險調整後收入來源的穩健成長。

  • As I discuss the quarter highlights, I will focus on the year-over-year operating trends. Loans measured in quarter end balances increased 8.2%. This uptick was driven primarily by BCP through both retail and wholesale banking and by Mibanco.

    在我說明本季重點時,我將聚焦於年對年的營運趨勢。以季末餘額衡量的放款增加 8.2%。此一增幅主要由 BCP(涵蓋零售與批發銀行)以及 Mibanco 所帶動。

  • Asset quality improved across the board, with Credicorp's NPL ratio declining to 4.3% for the quarter. This positive trend was driven by higher debt repayments, especially among retail banking clients, supported by ongoing refinements in underwriting standards and collections management and growth in liquidity through pension inflows. In this context, the cost of risk stood at 1.3%, bolstered by improvements in payment performance in a more favorable macroeconomic environment and by strengthened risk management.

    資產品質全面改善,Credicorp 的不良放款比率(NPL)本季降至 4.3%。此一正向趨勢由更高的債務償還所帶動,特別是零售銀行客戶;並受惠於持續精進的授信審核標準與催收管理,以及退休金流入帶動的流動性成長。在此背景下,風險成本為 1.3%,受惠於較有利的總體經濟環境下付款表現改善,以及風險管理的強化。

  • Net interest income increased 10.9%, spurred by growth in interest income, driven mainly by loan portfolio expansion, by a contraction in interest expenses as interest rates fell and low-cost deposits continued to gain share to account for 63.9% of the funding base at quarter end. In this context, NIM stood at 6.6%.

    淨利息收入成長 10.9%,主要受利息收入成長所推動,原因在於放款組合擴張;同時,隨著利率下滑,利息費用收縮,且低成本存款持續提升市占,使其於季末占資金來源基礎的 63.9%。在此背景下,NIM 為 6.6%。

  • Other core income grew 19.5%. Fee income increased 15.6%, boosted by transactional activity at Yape and BCP. Gains on FX transactions rose 30.6% through higher volumes at BCP. Lastly, the insurance underwriting results fell 9.1% on the back of lower premiums in the P&C business and inflationary pressures on expenses for claims in the life business, which have no impact on the bottom line given that these claims are compensated with inflation-linked financial income.

    其他核心收入成長 19.5%。手續費收入增加 15.6%,受 Yape 與 BCP 的交易活動帶動。外匯交易收益因 BCP 交易量提高而成長 30.6%。最後,保險承保結果下滑 9.1%,主因為產險(P&C)業務保費較低,以及壽險業務理賠費用受到通膨壓力影響;由於這些理賠會由與通膨連動的金融收入予以補償,因此對最終盈餘沒有影響。

  • Excluding inflation-based impacts on claims expenses, the underwriting result rose 4% year-over-year, driven mainly by the life business. We delivered 21.1% ROE this quarter, fueled by strong loan growth, strengthened asset quality, and diversified income sources, showcasing the success of our decoupling strategy, risk management measures, and investment in digital capabilities.

    若排除通膨對理賠費用的影響,承保結果年增 4%,主要由壽險業務帶動。本季我們達成 21.1% 的 ROE,受強勁放款成長、資產品質提升與多元收入來源所驅動,展現我們去連動(decoupling)策略、風險管理措施與數位能力投資的成效。

  • Finally, as Gianfranco mentioned, we recently declared a record high ordinary dividend of PLN50 per share as we moved capital levels closer to target across our subsidiaries.

    最後,如 Gianfranco 所提到,隨著我們將各子公司的資本水準拉近目標,我們近期宣告每股 PLN50 的普通股現金股利,創下歷史新高。

  • Next slide, please. GDP is expected to have grown close to 3% year-over-year in the first quarter, reflecting solid momentum in the economy despite localized energy disruptions and higher oil prices in March. More importantly, domestic demand is expected to have expanded by more than 5% year-over-year for the sixth consecutive quarter.

    請看下一張投影片。第一季 GDP 預期年增接近 3%,反映經濟動能穩健,儘管出現局部能源中斷以及 3 月油價上漲。更重要的是,國內需求預期已連續第六季年增超過 5%。

  • High-frequency indicators continue to signal broad-based and robust expansion, with several indicators posting double-digit year-over-year growth. For instance, during the first quarter, light vehicle sales led the gains, rising by nearly 40%, followed by upticks of nearly 20% in capital goods imports and 14% for cement consumption. Historic high terms of trade and ongoing business cycle momentum remain the key drivers of this performance.

    高頻指標持續顯示廣泛且強勁的擴張,多項指標年增達雙位數。例如第一季,輕型車銷售領漲,成長近 40%;其次是資本財進口增加近 20%,以及水泥消費成長 14%。創歷史新高的貿易條件與持續的景氣循環動能,仍是此一表現的關鍵驅動因素。

  • While higher oil prices introduce uncertainty, Peru is less vulnerable than other peers of the region given its lesser net importer position.Another source of uncertainty going forward will be the impacts of an El Niño event. So far, this has been felt in the first anchovy fishing season, but it is still early to tell how it will develop going forward.

    雖然油價上漲帶來不確定性,但由於秘魯的淨進口依賴程度較低,相較區域內其他同業更不脆弱。另一個未來的不確定來源將是聖嬰(El Niño)事件的影響。目前其影響已反映在第一季鯷魚捕撈季,但要判斷後續發展仍為時尚早。

  • Also, as Gianfranco mentioned, while the presidential elections may generate some near-term uncertainty, the broader institutional framework, including the role of the Senate, should help limit the scope of abrupt changes and provide a measure of stability.

    此外,如 Gianfranco 所提到,雖然總統大選可能在短期內帶來一些不確定性,但更廣泛的制度架構(包括參議院的角色)應有助於限制劇烈變動的幅度,並提供一定程度的穩定性。

  • Next slide, please. The Federal Reserve has maintained its policy rate since December as it continues to assess incoming economic data and determine how rising oil prices impact inflation and employment. In Peru, annual inflation rose to 4% year-over-year in April, its highest level in more than two years, reflecting primarily higher local transportation prices. The central bank has indicated that inflation is expected to return to the target range within the forecast horizon and converge to 2% next year as the effects of these shocks gradually dissipate.

    請看下一張投影片。聯準會自 12 月以來維持政策利率不變,持續評估最新經濟數據,並判斷油價上漲如何影響通膨與就業。在秘魯,4 月年通膨率上升至年增 4%,為兩年多來最高,主要反映本地運輸價格上漲。央行表示,預期通膨將在預測期間內回到目標區間,並隨著這些衝擊影響逐步消退,於明年收斂至 2%。

  • In Colombia, annual inflation accelerated to 5.6% in March, due in part by the 23% minimum wage increase ruled at the beginning of 2026. To contain inflation expectations, the central bank has increased its rate by 200 basis points since December. Presidential elections will be held in two weeks, and polls suggest a runoff is likely in June.

    在哥倫比亞,3月年通膨加速至5.6%,部分原因是2026年初裁定的最低工資上調23%。為抑制通膨預期,央行自12月以來已將利率上調200個基點。總統大選將於兩週後舉行,民調顯示6月很可能進入第二輪投票。

  • In Chile, investment sentiment improved after President Kast's election, although recent gasoline price increases have tempered the outlook. Annual inflation reached 4% in April, and the central bank has held the policy rate at 4.5%.

    在智利,卡斯特總統當選後投資情緒改善,但近期汽油價格上漲使前景降溫。4月年通膨達到4%,央行將政策利率維持在4.5%。

  • Next slide, please. BCP's profitability posted a solid start to the year, supported by loan growth under disciplined risk management and diversified sources of revenue. In this context, ROE stood at 30.5%. On a year-over-year basis, total loans measured in end of period balances rose 7.3%. In FX neutral terms, loan growth stood at 9.1%, driven by both wholesale and retail banking. Notably, disbursements of long-term wholesale loans were buoyed by a favorable outlook for private investment.

    請看下一張投影片。BCP的獲利能力在今年開局表現穩健,受惠於在嚴謹風險管理下的放款成長,以及多元化的收入來源。在此背景下,ROE為30.5%。以年對年來看,以期末餘額衡量的總放款成長7.3%。以匯率中性口徑計,放款成長為9.1%,由批發與零售銀行共同帶動。值得注意的是,長期批發放款的撥款受惠於民間投資前景轉佳而表現強勁。

  • In retail banking, loan growth accelerated mainly in individuals, reflecting an increase in our risk appetite for consumer loans and an uptick in mortgage loan disbursements, which rose on the back of lower interest rates. SME PYME loan disbursements were also boosted by an increase in our risk appetite.

    在零售銀行方面,放款成長主要在個人客群加速,反映我們對消費性貸款的風險承擔意願提高,以及房貸撥款增加;房貸撥款在利率下降的帶動下上升。中小企業(SME PYME)貸款撥款亦因我們提高風險承擔意願而獲得提振。

  • NIM rose 21 basis points to stand at 6%, mainly due to a decrease in the funding cost, while the yield on interest earning assets remained resilient in an environment of lower interest rates. NPL volumes declined 11.1%, mainly due to debt cancellations by SME PYME clients under judicial recovery, and secondarily by debt repayments from individuals who availed of funds from pension fund withdrawals.

    NIM上升21個基點至6%,主要因資金成本下降;在利率走低的環境下,生息資產收益率仍具韌性。不良放款(NPL)餘額下降11.1%,主要因處於司法重整下的中小企業(SME PYME)客戶進行債務核銷,其次為個人客戶運用退休基金提領資金償還債務。

  • Improvements in the quality of origination and in collections management also contributed to the result. Provisions fell 31.35.1%, driven mainly by retail banking, which was positively impacted by improvements in payment performance across earlier vintages in consumer and credit card loans, and by reversals in wholesale banking after a corporate client regularized its refinance exposure. In that scenario, the cost of risk decreased to 0.8%, while risk-adjusted NIM stood at a record high of 5.5%.

    放款承作品質與催收管理的改善亦對結果有所貢獻。提存下降31.35.1%,主要由零售銀行帶動;零售銀行受惠於消費貸與信用卡貸款較早期批次(vintages)之還款表現改善;同時,批發銀行在一名企業客戶將其再融資曝險恢復正常後出現回沖。在此情境下,風險成本降至0.8%,而風險調整後NIM達到創新高的5.5%。

  • Other core income rose 18.7%, driven mainly by an increase in fee income, where strong transactional activity was channeled through Yape and other transactional products at BCP. A secondary driver was growth in gains on FX transactions, which was fueled mainly by retail clients served through digital channels. Variations in volumes reflect volatility related to tensions in the Middle East and the electoral calendar.

    其他核心收入成長18.7%,主要由手續費收入增加所帶動;強勁的交易活動透過Yape及BCP其他交易型產品導入。次要動能為外匯交易收益成長,主要由透過數位通路服務的零售客戶所推動。交易量的變動反映中東緊張局勢與選舉時程所帶來的波動。

  • Although the ratio of other core income to assets stabilized this quarter due to asset growth, the contribution of fee income plus net gains from FX transactions reached its highest level since 2022, reflecting the strength of our diversified sources of revenue.

    儘管本季因資產成長使其他核心收入占資產比率趨於穩定,但手續費收入加上外匯交易淨收益的貢獻達到2022年以來最高水準,反映我們多元化收入來源的韌性。

  • Operating expenses rose 15.1%, mainly due to an uptick in administrative expenses. This evolution was driven primarily by Yape's use of cloud infrastructure and IT-related services, and secondarily by marketing and consulting expenses in the traditional business. Our personnel expenses rose this quarter as we ramped up core business projects to develop commercial and technological capabilities. In this context, operating expenses and personnel expenses in particular led the efficiency ratio to stand at 38.6%.

    營業費用上升15.1%,主要因管理費用增加。此一變化主要由Yape使用雲端基礎設施與IT相關服務所驅動,其次為傳統業務的行銷與顧問費用。本季我們的人事費用上升,因我們加速推動核心業務專案,以發展商業與科技能力。在此背景下,營業費用,尤其是人事費用,使效率比率為38.6%。

  • Next slide, please. With 16.4 million monthly active users, Yape continues to expand its MAU base while shifting its focus towards deeper engagement and monetization. Reaching approximately 82% of Peru's economically active population, the platform has achieved nationwide scale. At this level of penetration, incremental growth is driven by higher recurrence, broader multiproduct adoption, and monetization of an already large installed base, positioning Yape to continue cutting into cash's share of payments.

    請看下一張投影片。Yape每月活躍用戶(MAU)達1,640萬,持續擴大MAU基礎,同時將重心轉向更深度的互動與變現。平台觸及約秘魯82%的經濟活動人口,已達到全國規模。在此滲透率水準下,增量成長來自更高的使用頻率、更廣泛的多產品採用,以及對既有龐大裝機基礎的變現,使Yape得以持續侵蝕現金在支付中的占比。

  • The platform's positive evolution into a super app is reflected in its engagement metrics. Users transact 67 times per month, supported by consistently strong customer satisfaction with an NPS of 77. This deeper engagement translates into unit economics, with revenue per MAU increasing 65% year-over-year to PLN10.3, widely surpassing growth in expenses per MAU, which rose 26% to PLN5.9. This proves that operating leverage is on the rise, consistent with Yape's asset-light and scalable model.

    平台朝向超級App的正向演進,反映在其互動指標上。用戶每月交易67次,並在NPS為77的情況下維持一貫強勁的客戶滿意度。更深度的互動轉化為單位經濟效益:每MAU收入年增65%至PLN10.3,明顯高於每MAU費用年增26%至PLN5.9。這證明營運槓桿正在提升,與Yape輕資產且可擴展的模式一致。

  • Payments account for 47% of total revenues, while also serving as a core engine for data generation and cross-selling. Revenue generating total payment volume grew 80% year-over-year, reinforcing Yape's position as Peru's leading digital payment network.

    支付占總收入的47%,同時也是資料生成與交叉銷售的核心引擎。可產生收入的總支付金額(TPV)年增80%,進一步鞏固Yape作為秘魯領先數位支付網路的地位。

  • Lending revenue grew 3.6 times year-over-year, positioning as the platform's fastest-growing vertical. In the first quarter of 2026, more than 5.7 million loans were disbursed, leveraging proprietary data, digital underwriting, and distribution to serve the underbanked. With credit penetration at approximately 30% of MAUs, there's still significant upside to accelerate adoption.

    放款收入年增3.6倍,使其成為平台成長最快的垂直業務。2026年第一季,撥款筆數超過570萬筆,運用自有數據、數位授信審核與通路分發以服務金融服務不足族群。在信貸滲透率約為MAU的30%之下,仍有顯著上行空間可加速採用。

  • Yape has the potential to significantly scale its contributions to Credicorp over time. As of the first quarter, the app represented 17% of the group's fee income, and 8% of the group's risk-adjusted revenues year-over-year, up from 12% and 5% respectively.

    隨時間推進,Yape有潛力顯著擴大其對Credicorp的貢獻。截至第一季,該App占集團手續費收入的17%,且其風險調整後收入年對年占比為8%,分別高於先前的12%與5%。

  • Next slide, please. As Peru's microfinance system continues to gain traction amid a more dynamic economic backdrop, its performance has followed an upward trend. In this context, Mibanco outperformed its peers by strengthening its transactional value proposition, gaining productivity, and strengthening credit risk management. As a result, Mibanco sustained double-digit loan growth and robust profitability of 21.7% this quarter.

    請看下一張投影片。隨著秘魯小額金融體系在更具動能的經濟背景下持續升溫,其表現呈現上行趨勢。在此背景下,Mibanco透過強化交易型價值主張、提升生產力並加強信用風險管理而優於同業。因此,Mibanco本季維持雙位數放款成長,並達到21.7%的強勁獲利能力。

  • From a year-over-year perspective, loans measured in quarter-end balances grew 12.4%, riding an upswing in loan disbursements, which hit a new all-time high in March. The NPL ratio continued with a downward trajectory that began last year, falling to 4.9%, an all-time low.

    以年對年觀點,按季末餘額衡量的放款成長12.4%,受惠於放款撥款回升,且3月創下歷史新高。不良放款比率延續自去年開始的下行趨勢,降至4.9%,創歷史新低。

  • Our active pricing management, coupled with a decrease in the cost of funding, boosted NIM, which stood at a strong 14.9%. The cost of risk fell 29 basis points on the back of lower risk vintages, which currently account for 88% of total loans. While the cost of risk remains low this quarter, we anticipate some gradual normalization in the second half of 2026 as we incorporate newer and smaller customer segments to bolster portfolio growth while remaining comfortably within our risk appetite.

    我們積極的定價管理,加上資金成本下降,推升NIM至強勁的14.9%。風險成本因較低風險批次(vintages)而下降29個基點;目前這些較低風險批次占總放款的88%。雖然本季風險成本仍偏低,但我們預期2026年下半年將隨著納入較新且規模較小的客群以支撐投組成長而逐步正常化,同時仍將維持在我們的風險承擔意願範圍內。

  • In parallel, risk-adjusted NIM stood at 11.3%, slightly below the four-year high achieved last quarter. Operating expenses increased due to higher administrative expenses related to ongoing investments in strategic projects, primarily linked to digital transformation initiatives to modernize our technological architecture and improve client experience. Efficiency improved despite these investments and stood at 49.2% at quarter end.

    同時,風險調整後NIM為11.3%,略低於上季創下的四年高點。營業費用因管理費用增加而上升,與持續投入策略性專案相關,主要連結於數位轉型計畫,以現代化我們的技術架構並改善客戶體驗。儘管進行上述投資,效率仍有所改善,季末為49.2%。

  • Mibanco Colombia's results continued to rise and registered double-digit loan growth, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, bolstered by controlled risk management and improving productivity. Consequently, profitability stood at 18.3% at quarter end, which represents a sizable improvement over the single-digit levels reported at the same time last year.

    Mibanco Colombia 的業績持續上升,貸款成長在季比與年比皆達到兩位數,受惠於受控的風險管理與生產力提升。因此,季末獲利能力達 18.3%,相較去年同期的個位數水準大幅改善。

  • Next slide, please. Grupo Pacífico delivered solid underlying results in the first quarter, with ROE of 18.9% for the quarter. Organic net income grew 11% year-over-year, driven mainly by the life business and partially offset by the P&C business. In our life business, commercial execution was strong, supported by growth in our bancassurance channels and an uptick in issuances of optional policies in retail segments, both consistent with our strategy to deepen penetration in high-value customer segments.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。Grupo Pacífico 第一季基本面表現穩健,當季 ROE 為 18.9%。有機淨利年增 11%,主要由壽險業務帶動,並部分被產險(P&C)業務所抵銷。在壽險業務方面,商業執行力強勁,受惠於銀保通路成長,以及零售客群中可選保單簽發量增加,兩者皆符合我們深化高價值客群滲透率的策略。

  • The net loss on securities dropped this quarter, reflecting a base effect generated by credit downgrades on a couple of assets in the investment portfolio in the first quarter of last year. In our P&C business, net income fell. This evolution was fueled primarily by a drop in premiums in the corporate segment and secondarily by an uptick in claims in the personal and medical assistance lines.

    本季證券淨損失下降,反映去年第一季投資組合中少數資產遭信用評等下調所造成的基期效應。在產險(P&C)業務方面,淨利下滑。此一變化主要由企業客群保費下滑所致,其次為個人與醫療協助線別理賠上升。

  • In addition to organic growth, our net income accelerated year-over-year following the consolidation of Pacífico Salud, which includes medical assistance, corporate health insurance, and medical services. These businesses continue to advance through solid commercial dynamics and disciplined cost management, which bolsters our confidence in Pacífico Salud's long-term earnings contribution. If we include the full consolidation of Pacífico Salud's operations in Grupo Pacífico results, consolidated net income rose 19% year-over-year.

    除有機成長外,隨著 Pacífico Salud 併入合併報表(涵蓋醫療協助、企業健康保險與醫療服務),我們的淨利年增加速。這些業務在穩健的商業動能與嚴謹的成本管理下持續推進,強化我們對 Pacífico Salud 長期獲利貢獻的信心。若將 Pacífico Salud 營運全面併入 Grupo Pacífico 的結果,合併淨利年增 19%。

  • Next slide, please. ROE for our investment management and advisory business stood at 15.7% in the first quarter. Let me give a brief overview of this quarter's year-over-year dynamics and underlying structural trends.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。我們投資管理與顧問業務第一季 ROE 為 15.7%。我將簡要說明本季年比變化與背後的結構性趨勢。

  • Quarterly results showed mixed dynamics. Revenues benefited from stronger performance in our wealth and asset management businesses, with AUMs expanding by 28% and 34% respectively. Our capital market line also evolved favorably in line with market conditions. These favorable business dynamics were partially offset by an increase in operating expenses, which was mainly attributable to a particularly low comparative base in the first quarter of 2025. In this context, net income fell 8% over the period.

    本季表現呈現分歧。營收受惠於財富管理與資產管理業務表現更強,AUM 分別擴增 28% 與 34%。資本市場線也隨市場環境而有利發展。上述正向動能部分被營業費用增加所抵銷,主要原因是 2025 年第一季比較基期特別低。在此背景下,淨利期間內下滑 8%。

  • Next slide, please. Now, I would like to review Credicorp's consolidated evolution. Its interest-earning assets rose sequentially, driven mainly by growth in investment balances as we took advantage of tactical opportunities to capitalize on our cash position.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。接下來,我想回顧 Credicorp 的合併表現走勢。其生息資產較前一季上升,主要由投資部位成長帶動,因我們把握戰術性機會,運用現金部位進行配置。

  • Loan growth, fueled by BCP, also contributed to the uptick in interest-earning assets, albeit to a lesser extent. On the liability side, low-cost deposits posted an increase thanks to our solid transactional offering and inflows from pension fund withdrawals. Structural balance sheet trends are better explained on a year-over-year basis.

    由 BCP 帶動的放款成長也推升了生息資產,但幅度相對較小。在負債端,受惠於我們穩健的交易型產品與退休金基金提領資金流入,低成本存款增加。資產負債表的結構性趨勢以年比更能清楚說明。

  • Loan growth, which was driven mainly by BCP and Mibanco, led the interest-earning asset mix to generate higher yield despite cash buildup. In this context, the yield on interest-earning assets rose 10 basis points year-over-year.

    由 BCP 與 Mibanco 主要帶動的放款成長,使生息資產組合即使在現金增加的情況下仍能產生較高收益率。在此背景下,生息資產收益率年增 10 個基點。

  • On the liability side, lower interest rates, along with an increase in the share of low-cost deposits, resulted in a 31-basis point decrease in the funding cost over the same period. In this context, NIM stood at 6.6% for the quarter.

    在負債端,較低利率加上低成本存款占比提高,使同期間資金成本下降 31 個基點。在此背景下,本季 NIM 為 6.6%。

  • Next slide, please. Moving on to loan portfolio quality. Asset quality continued to improve this quarter as NPL volumes contracted across segments. The NPL ratio at quarter end was 4.3%, which is below the levels reported prior to the 2023 recession. Provisions dropped over the last 12 months, buoyed by steady economic recovery, which strengthened repayment dynamics, and by effective risk management at both BCP and Mibanco.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。接著談放款組合品質。本季資產品質持續改善,不良放款(NPL)量在各分項皆收縮。季末 NPL 比率為 4.3%,低於 2023 年衰退前的水準。過去 12 個月提存下降,受惠於經濟穩定復甦帶動還款動能改善,以及 BCP 與 Mibanco 兩者有效的風險管理。

  • In this context, the NPL coverage ratio rose and stood at 113.8%. Going forward, we will continue to accelerate retail origination while maintaining a disciplined approach to risk. We expect loan growth to maintain its dynamism. The cost of risk, in turn, is expected to increase modestly but remain within our risk appetite.

    在此背景下,NPL 覆蓋率上升至 113.8%。展望未來,我們將在維持嚴謹風險紀律的同時,持續加速零售端放款承作。我們預期放款成長將維持動能。相對地,風險成本預期將小幅上升,但仍會維持在我們的風險承受度範圍內。

  • Next slide, please. Core income reached new record levels, supported by this quarter's operating momentum across core businesses, which was driven by loan growth in higher yield segments, a drop in the funding cost, and an upward trajectory for transactional activity. On a yearly basis, 13.3% growth in core income was driven by diverse revenue streams with net interest income, fees, and FX gains reporting double-digit gains.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。核心收入再創新高,受惠於本季核心業務的營運動能:較高收益分項的放款成長、資金成本下降,以及交易活動上升趨勢。以年比來看,核心收入成長 13.3% 由多元收入來源帶動,淨利息收入、手續費與外匯收益皆呈現兩位數成長。

  • Net interest income grew 10.9%, benefiting from sustained growth in our low-cost deposit base and resilient asset yields. Fee income in turn rose 15.6% on the back of dynamic bancassurance, payments, and transactional services. While the 30.6% uptick in FX gains was supported by higher transactional volumes and disciplined pricing.

    淨利息收入成長 10.9%,受惠於低成本存款基礎持續擴大與資產收益率的韌性。手續費收入則在銀保、支付與交易服務動能帶動下成長 15.6%。外匯收益成長 30.6%,則受較高交易量與嚴謹定價所支撐。

  • Profitability metrics continued to strengthen with risk-adjusted NIM trending upward to 5.81%, reflecting improved pricing, portfolio mix optimization, and effective risk management. The efficiency ratio for the year stood within guidance at 45.8%. Operating expenses grew 13.1%, fueled primarily by core businesses at BCP and investments in our innovation portfolio.

    獲利能力指標持續轉強,風險調整後 NIM 上升至 5.81%,反映定價改善、投組結構優化與有效的風險管理。年度效率比率為 45.8%,落在指引範圍內。營業費用成長 13.1%,主要由 BCP 核心業務以及我們創新投資組合的投入所帶動。

  • Growth in core expenses at BCP was driven mainly by IT expenses for commercial and transactional capability development. Expenses for our innovation portfolio, which were led by Yape, Tenpo, and Culqi, rose 40% and represented 84% of disruptive expenses for the quarter.

    BCP 核心費用成長主要由資訊科技支出所驅動,用於商業與交易能力的開發。由 Yape、Tenpo 與 Culqi 領軍的創新投資組合費用成長 40%,並占本季顛覆性費用的 84%。

  • Next slide, please. ROE for the quarter was 21.1%, supported by solid business performance and a favorable economic backdrop. Net income reached a record high once again.

    下一張投影片,謝謝。本季 ROE 為 21.1%,受惠於穩健的業務表現與有利的總體經濟環境。淨利再次創下歷史新高。

  • We achieved this by capitalizing on our structural strength, our differentiated digital and transactional capabilities, low funding cost advantage, loan portfolio growth, particularly in retail segments, and sustained improvements in risk management.

    我們透過發揮結構性優勢、差異化的數位與交易能力、低資金成本優勢、放款組合成長(特別是零售分項),以及風險管理的持續改善,達成上述成果。

  • We'll move on to our guidance. Next slide, please. We maintain our expectation of, for Peru's GDP growth stand at around 3.5% in 2026, though we recognize that risks to this outlook are tilted to the downside. We expect our total loan book to grow around 8.5% measured in quarter-end balances or around 10.5% on an FX neutral basis. Amid a dynamic economic backdrop and strengthened origination levels, we expect growth in balances to continue accelerating over the remainder of the year, driven primarily by retail banking at BCP and by Mibanco.

    接下來進入我們的指引。下一張投影片,謝謝。我們維持對 2026 年秘魯 GDP 成長約 3.5% 的預期,但也認知此展望的風險偏向下行。我們預期總放款餘額約成長 8.5%(以季末餘額衡量),或在匯率中性基礎下約成長 10.5%。在經濟環境動能強勁且承作水準提升之下,我們預期今年剩餘期間餘額成長將持續加速,主要由 BCP 的零售銀行與 Mibanco 所帶動。

  • The acceleration anticipated for loan growth and the shift in the mix towards retail should support NIM, which we expect to stand between 6.4% and 6.7%. This quarter's cost of risk was below expectations. We anticipate that retail origination will continue to increase. As a result, the cost of risk is expected to approach the lower end of our guidance range, and our risk-adjusted NIM is expected to remain within guidance. On the efficiency front, we maintain our guidance range for 2026.

    我們預期放款成長將加速,且組合將轉向零售,這應可支撐淨利差(NIM),我們預估將介於 6.4% 至 6.7%。本季的風險成本低於預期。我們預期零售放款承作將持續增加。因此,風險成本預期將接近我們指引區間的下緣,而我們的風險調整後 NIM 預期將維持在指引範圍內。在效率方面,我們維持 2026 年的指引區間。

  • Turning to non-interest income, as we mentioned in our previous earnings call, we continue to expect fee income to grow in the low double digits this year, driven by an ongoing uptick in economic activity and in the diversification of our income sources.

    談到非利息收入,如同我們在上次法說會所提到的,我們仍預期今年手續費收入將以低雙位數成長,主要受惠於經濟活動持續回升,以及我們收入來源的多元化。

  • On the insurance side, our underlying insurance business is expected to continue performing solidly. However, the insurance underwriting result, which was bolstered by extraordinary re-reversals for the DNS business in 2025, is expected to drop by high single digits. Excluding the DNS business, the result is on track to deliver high single-digit growth.

    在保險方面,我們的核心保險業務預期將持續穩健表現。然而,保險承保結果在 2025 年因 DNS 業務的非常態回轉(re-reversals)而受到提振,預期將以高個位數下滑。若排除 DNS 業務,該結果可望維持高個位數成長的軌道。

  • Although we are reaffirming our ROE guidance of around 19.5% for 2026, the strength of our first quarter performance and the ongoing positive trends suggest that we are well-positioned to achieve results on the upper side of this level. We remain prudent in the face of global and local uncertainties, but our outlook reflects confidence in our ability to deliver strong value for shareholders.

    雖然我們重申 2026 年 ROE 約 19.5% 的指引,但第一季表現強勁以及持續的正向趨勢顯示,我們具備達成高於此水準上緣結果的良好條件。面對全球與本地的不確定性,我們仍保持審慎,但我們的展望反映出我們有信心為股東創造強勁價值。

  • With this comment, I would like to open the Q&A session.

    以上說明後,我想開放問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.

    (接線員指示) 美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Ernesto Gabilondo。

  • Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst

    Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst

  • Alejandro, best of locking your new position and innate wishing you the same. Congrats on your record high results. My first question is whether you could provide some color and the presidential election and the potential impact of (inaudible). Regarding the election, with almost 100% of the boats counted. And as you mentioned in your remarks, the second round appears likely to be between Fujimori and Sanchez. Could you share any insights on potential alliances or support. These candidates may receive from other potential tenders that are not passing to the second round.

    Alejandro,恭喜你就任新職,也祝你一切順利。恭喜你們創下歷史新高的業績。我的第一個問題是,能否請你就總統大選以及其可能帶來的影響提供一些看法,關於(聽不清)。就選舉而言,目前幾乎 100% 的選票已完成計票。如你在發言中提到的,第二輪看起來很可能會在藤森(Fujimori)與桑切斯(Sanchez)之間進行。你能否分享一些對可能的結盟或支持的觀察。這些候選人可能會從其他未能進入第二輪的候選人那裡獲得哪些支持。

  • And on amino expectations are currently pointing to a strong event. Superina is being rolled out for now. But based on your experience with this type of weather phenomenon how likely is that this outlook change throughout the year? And in case of a strong Nino, what measures would you expect to evaluate or implement .

    另外,關於(厄爾尼諾)目前的預期正指向一次強烈事件。目前 Superina 正在推行中。但以你對這類天氣現象的經驗來看,這個展望在今年內改變的可能性有多大?若出現強烈的尼諾現象,你預期會評估或採取哪些措施。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • This is Gianfranco. Thank you for your words. Let me take the political question, and then I'll ask Cesar and Alejandro want to comment on the El Nino, which by the way, they are actually too early or as we speak, the effect effects have also speak Yes, you're right. Officially, there's no official results, and so we do know who the candies that are going to go to the (inaudible) runoff. But yes, we're close to 100% on the probability of Puqimoria and Sanchez going to the second round is very high. Regarding your question on alliances and phone, there's nothing material as we speak. But on top of that, also bear in mind that the endorse and power that there is in Peru is quite limited.

    我是 Gianfranco。謝謝你的祝福。我先回答政治方面的問題,接著我會請 Cesar 和 Alejandro 針對厄爾尼諾發表看法;順帶一提,現在談其影響其實還太早,或就我們此刻所見,影響也已經開始出現。是的,你說得沒錯。正式而言,目前還沒有官方結果,因此我們也還不知道哪些候選人會進入(聽不清)的決選。但沒錯,我們已接近 100% 的情況,藤森與桑切斯進入第二輪的機率非常高。至於你問到結盟與支持,目前並沒有任何具實質性的進展。此外也請記得,在秘魯,背書與動員的力量其實相當有限。

  • So we'll have to see what happens going on. actually, the only poll that was published or is public after the first round is that they're basically, when I say they Mr. (inaudible) and Mr. Sanchez are basically tied. So with that, I will ask Cesar to go with the comments on Nino, please.

    所以我們還得觀察後續發展。事實上,第一輪後唯一公布或公開的民調顯示,他們基本上——我指的是(聽不清)先生與桑切斯先生——基本上勢均力敵。因此,我會請 Cesar 來說明尼諾的相關評論,謝謝。

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

  • (inaudible) Regarding (inaudible), I think first, it's important to clarify that we deal with two different phenomena. The cost mean that we are already in an El Nino phenomenon at this point. I am going to detail a little bit more.

    (聽不清) 關於(聽不清),我認為首先重要的是釐清:我們面對的是兩種不同的現象。沿岸(Costero)的情況意味著我們此刻已經處於厄爾尼諾現象之中。我會再更詳細說明一些。

  • And the second one that probably is the more globally awareness is the Central Pacific Nino. These are two different phenomenons, depending on the period of the year, this can affect Peru differently and particularly are on Europe when the confluence of this phenomenon Cosi with the summer, even say that, regarding the local El Nino, we are already in a low moderate effect at this point. It has already affected the efficient season has been temporarily halted after only 1/4 of the usual harvest volume is expected for this year.

    第二種、可能在全球更廣為人知的是中太平洋尼諾(Central Pacific Nino)。這是兩種不同的現象,取決於一年中的時點,對秘魯的影響會不同,尤其當這個沿岸現象(Costi)與夏季同時發生時更是如此。也就是說,就本地的沿岸厄爾尼諾而言,我們目前已處於低度到中度影響。它已經影響到漁季,漁季在僅完成約平常捕撈量的四分之一後就暫時停止;這是今年的預期。

  • So these effects are already impacting the economy. And we are also closely monitoring the effects at this point in the agricultural sectors. Usually, the impact is diminish the level of productivity. But in some cases, in some cases, is also compensated by higher prices. So we are in the point that we are closely monitoring.

    因此,這些影響已經開始衝擊經濟。我們也正在密切監測目前對農業部門的影響。通常,其影響是降低生產力水準。但在某些情況下,也可能因價格上升而部分抵銷。因此我們目前正處於密切監控的階段。

  • We are still not changing our credit policy. And probably around September, we are going to have much clear indication of the real impact. And in this point, we should start taking measures considering not only this already mentioned in effect, but heavy rains in the north part of the city. So in our expectations, we are already considering this moderate impact and closely monitoring potential higher impact for the last part of the year. I don't know if this helps.

    我們目前仍未調整我們的授信政策。大約到 9 月,我們將能更清楚判斷實際影響。屆時,我們應會開始採取措施,考量的不僅是前述已出現的影響,也包括北部地區的豪雨。因此,在我們的預期中,我們已納入這種中度影響,並密切監控今年後段可能出現的更高影響。不確定這樣是否有幫助。

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • This is Alejandro. First, thanks for your words. I just wanted to give you a little bit more color or numerical color on the impact of (inaudible) over time. In 1998, we had what is considered an extraordinary in and the impact on GDP in Peru was 1.7%. The moderate beginning of (inaudible) was $0.8 million and the strong no 2023 was 1.1%.

    我是 Alejandro。首先,謝謝你的祝福。我想再補充一些(聽不清)隨時間推移的影響細節或數字。1998 年,我們經歷了被視為非常態的一次(尼諾),對秘魯 GDP 的影響為 1.7%。(聽不清)的中度情境是 0.8 百萬美元,而 2023 年的強烈尼諾是 1.1%。

  • So depending on going back to Cesar's comments, it's still very early to know what kind of Nino will get depending on the summer and the confusion of both the El Nino Costero loan Nino, whether it's going to be moderate or strong we're going to see the impacts around 1% of GDP of Peru, if it were to materialize.

    因此,回到 Cesar 的評論,目前仍然太早,尚無法判斷會是哪一種尼諾,取決於夏季以及沿岸厄爾尼諾與(聽不清)尼諾兩者的交互影響,究竟會是中度或強烈;若真的發生,其對秘魯 GDP 的影響大約會在 1% 左右。

  • Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst

    Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst

  • Now great. Super helpful. Good color. And then just my second question is related to asset quality. The cost of risk has become very well low your guidance. So just whether -- wondering whether there are potential downs risks -- or it's still early to assess that considering. And we need to wait for the outcome of the presidential election and to evaluate the impact of Enno.

    了解,很好。非常有幫助。資訊很到位。那我的第二個問題與資產品質有關。風險成本已經明顯低於你們的指引。所以我想請教,是否存在潛在的下行風險——或者說現在評估仍為時過早,因為還需要等待總統大選結果,並評估尼諾的影響。

  • Cesar?

    Cesar?

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes. Thank you, Ernesto. I would like to highlight two different behaviors in our portfolio. Let's say (inaudible), as Alejandro has mentioned, has had a very good format but not a drama changed recently, as you can see in the recent evolution. And these numbers reflect improved risk performance because at the same time that we are decreasing the cost of risk, we are increasing our exposure in low segment tickets, particularly below PLN5,000. So a good performance, but not a dramatical change on the quarter. In the case of BCP, you can see a significant change on the quarter.

    是的。謝謝你,Ernesto。我想強調我們投資組合中的兩種不同表現。比方說,(聽不清),如 Alejandro 所提到的,一直有非常好的表現,但最近並沒有出現劇烈變化,從近期走勢你也看得出來。這些數字反映了風險表現的改善,因為在我們降低風險成本的同時,也在提高我們在低額度票券(貸款)上的曝險,特別是低於 5,000 波蘭茲羅提(PLN5,000)的部分。所以表現不錯,但本季並沒有戲劇性的變化。至於 BCP,你可以看到本季有顯著變化。

  • And I would like to mentioned two different kind of effects. One is a more structural effect. That is the combination of the origination and the measures that we have taken recently that has improved the quality of rig segment by segment. and we are reaping the benefits of these measures taken.

    我也想提到兩種不同類型的影響。一種是較為結構性的影響。也就是放款承作(origination)與我們近期採取的措施相結合,逐一分客群(分區段)改善了風險品質,而我們正在收穫這些措施帶來的成果。

  • And additionally, we are starting to see also the contribution -- the increased contribution of more provisions of the new origination in higher unit segment that has been more pronounced in the last quarter of last year and this first quarter, as you have seen in our figures (inaudible) structural and segment by segment, we are still seeing an improvement, but it's not a dramatical improvement. But the effect that has been changing recently has been some one-off effect that has impacted the quarter in particular. We have an unusually high as a product of the boom in the mining sector of profit sharing.

    此外,我們也開始看到貢獻——也就是在較高單位(較高額度)客群中新承作放款所帶來、需要提列更多備抵(provisions)的貢獻增加;這在去年第四季以及今年第一季更為明顯,正如你在我們的數據中所見(聽不清)。從結構面與分客群來看,我們仍看到改善,但並非劇烈改善。但近期變動較大的,是一些一次性因素,特別影響了本季。由於礦業景氣繁榮,我們出現了異常偏高的利潤分成(profit sharing)。

  • So this profit sharing has improved the one-off payment capacity of the middle segment that was the focus of our origination in the last two years, so good payment -- additional payment from the source the liberated fund from the pension funds that has improved also in the same segment. And on top of that, a combination of payments in the wholesale portfolio. In contrast with the last quarter in which we have additional provision for a number of construction-related segment clients. In this quarter, we have liberation of provision.

    因此,這些利潤分成提升了中段客群的一次性償付能力;而中段客群正是我們過去兩年放款承作的重點,因此出現了良好的還款——來自於退休金基金釋出資金來源的額外還款,也同樣改善了該客群。此外,批發(wholesale)投資組合也出現一系列還款的組合效應。相較於上一季我們因若干與營建相關客戶而額外提列備抵,本季則出現備抵回轉(liberation of provision)。

  • So you have good underlying behavior in BCP with a slight decrease of the cost of risk, gradually increasing as we shift the portfolio but the combination of three very point-in-time effects in the quarter that I would say the exacerbate the decrease of the cost of risk. As we start to originate faster and faster in higher yield segments. We are going to increase the cost of risk towards the expected rates that Alejandro has shared, and our expectation is to be with the information that we have in the lower range of the guidance.

    所以你會看到 BCP 的基本面行為良好,風險成本略有下降;隨著我們調整投資組合,風險成本會逐步上升,但本季三個非常短期、點狀(point-in-time)的因素疊加,我會說它們加劇了風險成本的下降。當我們在較高收益客群的承作速度越來越快,我們將把風險成本提高到 Alejandro 所分享的預期水準;而依我們目前掌握的資訊,我們預期會落在指引區間的較低端。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brian Flores, Citi.

    Brian Flores,花旗(Citi)。

  • Brian Flores - Analyst

    Brian Flores - Analyst

  • I have one quick question, or sorry, a follow-up on Rene's question regarding asset quality. So is it fair to say that these may be extraordinary cost of risk that we have seen is allowing you to maybe allocate a bit more capital on, as you mentioned, higher yielding credit and we should see this maybe during this year.

    我有一個簡短問題,或抱歉,是針對 Rene 關於資產品質問題的追問。所以是否可以說,我們看到的這些可能屬於非常態的風險成本,讓你們能夠如你所提到的,把更多資本配置到較高收益的信貸上,而我們可能在今年會看到這種情況?

  • And then maybe my question is on your ROE guidance. I think you mentioned that maybe you could be on the upper side, given the trajectory, and I think maybe Cost of risk is perhaps the 1 that is allowing you to already be mentioning this. So I just wanted to see if besides cost of risk, you see also another of these key variables, maybe efficiency allowing you to be on the upper side of the range, as you were mentioning.

    另外我的問題是關於你們的 ROE 指引。我想你提到,依照目前軌跡,你們可能會落在區間上緣;我想風險成本可能是讓你們現在就能這麼說的因素之一。所以我想確認的是,除了風險成本之外,你們是否也看到其他關鍵變數——例如效率——也能讓你們如所提到的,落在區間上緣?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Brian. Let me provide a more let's say, longer-term vision regarding the question on cost of risk and then I'll ask both (inaudible) to answer on both the cost of risk and ROE. First of all, we do not manage the company by only taking a look at cost of risk, but most importantly, by taking a look at risk-adjusted NIM. So what we've been providing, I believe Alejandro mentioned it when he commented about guidance is that we do expect cost -- sorry, risk-adjusted NIM to increase, even though we expect cost of risk at the same time to increase.

    Brian。我先就風險成本這個問題提供一個更偏長期的觀點,然後我會請(聽不清)兩位分別回答風險成本與 ROE。首先,我們管理公司並不是只看風險成本,更重要的是看風險調整後的淨利差(risk-adjusted NIM)。因此我們一直在提供的(我相信 Alejandro 在談到指引時也提到)是:即使我們同時預期風險成本會上升,我們仍預期風險調整後的淨利差會提高。

  • And the main reason is because the retail portfolio and mostly microfinance and the app lending book is going to -- are going to grow at a much faster pace. We are not -- having said that, we're not taking -- making decisions based on short-term cost of risk results but on a much more longer and structural vision regarding the opportunities we see mostly, again, in the retail portfolio in the under bank and the land bank and leveraging a lot on the data we've been gathering over the last actually 10 years through Yape and other digital channels.

    主要原因是零售投資組合——尤其是微型金融以及 App 放款帳簿——將以更快的速度成長。話雖如此,我們不會基於短期風險成本結果來做決策,而是基於更長期、更結構性的視角,來看我們所看到的機會;這些機會主要仍在零售投資組合、在金融服務不足(underbanked)與未被服務(unbanked)的客群中,同時大量運用我們過去其實 10 年來透過 Yape 與其他數位渠道所累積的數據。

  • And maybe I'll end that with the comment on guidance on -- it's not only a matter of cost of risk. Well, the first quarter has been over 20% already. The economy in Peru is really performing quite well. Therefore, we have a lot -- so it's not only a matter of what we're doing as a company, but also the environment is quite good. I don't know if Cesar and Alejandro would like to add something in that sense.

    最後我也補充一下關於指引:這不只是風險成本的問題。第一季我們已經超過 20%。秘魯經濟的表現確實相當好。因此,我們有很多——所以不只是公司自身在做什麼,外部環境也相當有利。我不知道 Cesar 和 Alejandro 是否想在這方面再補充一些。

  • I think Gianfranco has explained perfectly our general approach. And I will say, if we are taking confidence to increase our risk taking is because segment by segment, we are having results within our expectations or slightly better. That's what gives us confidence to continue growing and accelerating the retaking in higher yield, higher risk segments. The temporary effects were exactly the temporary effects that are very welcome, but our strategy continues to perform based on the capabilities that we are building and the results that we are monitoring and adjusting.

    我認為 Gianfranco 已經把我們的一般方法解釋得非常清楚。我會說,我們之所以更有信心提高承擔風險的程度,是因為逐一分客群來看,我們的結果都符合預期或略優於預期。這讓我們有信心持續成長,並在更高收益、更高風險的客群中加速承作與承擔風險。那些暫時性因素確實就是暫時性因素,當然非常受歡迎,但我們的策略仍是建立在我們正在打造的能力,以及我們持續監控並調整的結果之上。

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Brian, this is Alejandro. I'm going to add up something on the ROE guidance. We haven't changed the guidance, which is around 19.5%. But as I mentioned in my remarks, we are expecting to be on the upper side of that number, given what we've already seen in this first quarter, and we've had an ROE above 20% and the strength of the economy.

    是的。Brian,我是 Alejandro。我補充一下 ROE 指引。我們沒有改變指引,大約是 19.5%。但如我在發言中提到,考量我們在第一季已經看到的表現——ROE 超過 20%——以及經濟的強勁,我們預期會落在該數字的上緣。

  • Having said that, there are, of course, some important events that we need to monitor and might have an impact like the elections and the El Nino that we were already discussing, but we believe that given the strength of the economy, given all the things that we've been developing, both in risk management, transactional capabilities, et cetera. And what we see we should be able to be on the upper side of the 19.5% for this year going forward.

    話雖如此,當然仍有一些重要事件需要監控,可能會帶來影響,例如我們先前討論過的選舉以及聖嬰現象(El Nino)。但我們相信,鑑於經濟的強勁、以及我們在風險管理、交易能力等各方面所推進的工作,並且依我們所見,今年接下來我們應該能夠落在 19.5% 的上緣。

  • And again, it's not just cost of risk. There's also the loan growth that we're expecting that can be a little bit stronger. And then you have the risk-adjusted NIM that Gian Branco mentioned probably being strong for the year, and all those figures together will probably allow us to be above the 9.5%.

    再說一次,這不只是風險成本。我們預期的放款成長也可能更強一些。此外,Gian Branco 提到的風險調整後淨利差(risk-adjusted NIM)今年可能也會維持強勁;這些數字加總起來,可能會讓我們高於 9.5%。

  • But again, we are at a moment in the year where we've seen an amazing first four months because April has also been very strong in the economy. But we are about to choose a new president and there's this mine effect going on. So that's the reason why we want to remain prudent as of now.

    但再說一次,我們正處於一年中的一個時點:前四個月表現非常亮眼,因為4月的經濟也非常強勁。但我們即將選出一位新總統,而目前存在這種「地雷效應」。因此,這就是我們希望目前仍保持審慎的原因。

  • Brian Flores - Analyst

    Brian Flores - Analyst

  • Very clear team. I appreciate it. Just if I understood correctly, given the improvement in marginal ROE your priority in capital allocation, i.e., if I understand correctly, should be reinvestment in growing right rather than extraordinary wide all of that because I think the unit economics are healthier, right?

    非常清楚,團隊。感謝。我想確認我是否理解正確:鑑於邊際ROE的改善,你們在資本配置上的優先順序——也就是說,如果我理解正確——應該是再投資以推動適當的成長,而不是進行特別的大規模(回饋/分配)之類的,因為我認為單位經濟效益更健康,對嗎?

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. I mean the priority is definitely growth and we believe there's a big opportunity in many of the segments that we serve.

    當然。我的意思是,優先事項絕對是成長,我們相信在我們服務的許多細分領域都有很大的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thiago Batista, UBS BB.

    Thiago Batista,UBS BB。

  • Thiago Batista - Analyst

    Thiago Batista - Analyst

  • One for the results, very strong numbers. Can you give me -- can you give us some indication about the performance of tipi in Bolivia? And also, if you believe this platform can be implemented in other places, let's say, in Chile, for instance, (inaudible). So those 2 points, how YP is performing in Bolivia. And if it's possible to see kind of international internationalization of Yape?

    先談業績,數字非常強勁。你能不能——你能不能給我——給我們一些關於tipi在玻利維亞表現的指標?另外,你是否認為這個平台可以在其他地方落地,例如在智利,(聽不清)。所以這兩點:YP在玻利維亞的表現如何。以及是否可能看到Yape某種程度的國際化?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Francesca, could you answer that, please?

    Francesca,你可以回答一下嗎?

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • Thank you, Thiago, for the question. Bolivia has been growing at a steady pace. I would say that last year is accelerated with growth reaching over 2 million customer lines, for a smaller country in Bolivia.

    謝謝你,Thiago,提問。玻利維亞一直以穩定的速度成長。我會說,去年成長加速,客戶線數成長到超過200萬條;對玻利維亞這樣較小的國家而言,這是很可觀的。

  • But bear in mind that Bolivia has a different starting point at Peru. It had an interoperable system in place. So it's a different. It's a different model that we have been successful to gain market and to be the leader in the market. Having said that, we have a very solid competitor that is closed by (inaudible) so at a transactional pace, we are growing different again than Peru, more than just P2P transactions, there's a lot of P2M transaction. So it's a merchant driving system.

    但請記住,玻利維亞的起點與秘魯不同。它原本就有互通(interoperable)的系統。所以這是不同的。這是一個不同的模式,而我們成功地取得市占並成為市場領導者。話雖如此,我們也有一個非常強勁的競爭對手,背後是(聽不清),因此在交易節奏上,我們的成長也再次不同於秘魯;不僅是P2P交易,還有大量P2M交易。所以這是一個由商戶驅動的系統。

  • And we are following in the past, similar to Peru in having monetization, which is putting a lot of services around utility payments and so forth and digitizing payments as a whole, and then gaining a lot of information to go into value-added services around lending and other products. So Bolivia is performing good we've worked a lot around technology as well.

    而我們在變現方面的路徑,過去也類似於秘魯:圍繞水電瓦斯等公用事業繳費等建立許多服務,並推動整體支付數位化,然後取得大量資訊,以進一步發展放款等加值服務與其他產品。所以玻利維亞的表現不錯,我們也在技術方面投入了很多。

  • As you know, we have a bank there, and we began that process with their technology. And then in into the next -- your next comment around the internationalization. So Chile for our with Tempo as a neobank there as entrance leveraging capabilities and there is a cash-based economy in Chile as well that we're, of course, looking at. But the technological piece, I think is super important, and Yape has been working around creating a platform that is much more exportable.

    如你所知,我們在那裡有一家銀行,我們是從該行的技術開始這個流程。接著談到你下一個關於國際化的評論。因此,就智利而言,我們以那裡的Tempo作為新型銀行(neobank)的切入點來運用相關能力;而智利同樣也是一個以現金為主的經濟體,我們當然也在關注。但我認為技術面非常重要,而Yape一直在打造一個更具可輸出性的平臺。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe Garo, just to complement Francesca's answer. We are announcing that on April 1, we created the neobanking unit Ander Ramundo Morales, CEO. the current CEO of Yape Peru, I mean, under that unit, Yape Peru, Yape Olivia, EO and Tempo are going to be operating.

    也許Garo補充一下Francesca的回答。我們宣布自4月1日起成立新型銀行事業單位(neobanking unit),由Ander Ramundo Morales擔任CEO;他是目前Yape Peru的CEO。也就是說,在該單位之下,Yape Peru、Yape Olivia、EO以及Tempo都將運作。

  • The logic -- part of the logic well, most of the logic is to leverage on tech capabilities, note of the market and so on. And part of the logic is what you just said. Is there -- are there any possibilities to grow elsewhere?

    其邏輯——部分邏輯,嗯,大部分邏輯——是要槓桿運用技術能力、市場知識等等。而部分邏輯正如你剛才所說。也就是:是否——是否有任何在其他地方成長的可能性?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Renato Malone, Autonomous Research.

    Renato Malone,Autonomous Research。

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • Congrats on the results. My question is on growth, right? You have been mentioning earlier this year. There's your expected retail growth to remain solid. But this quarter, we saw a nice pickup on wholesale lending. I wonder if you could explain a bit the drivers for that. Do you expect this to continue? And then if you see some upside to the loan growth guidance.

    恭喜這次的業績。我的問題是關於成長。你們今年稍早提到,預期零售端的成長將維持穩健。但本季我們看到批發放款有不錯的回升。我想請你們解釋一下背後的驅動因素。你們預期這會持續嗎?另外,你們是否看到貸款成長指引有上修空間?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Renato, thank you for your words. And regarding your question on the wholesale growth, and please, after anyone could tell me in that sense, but what we've been -- so let me go a step back. If you were to look at our book in the last, I don't know, five years, it's been basically flattish and mostly in the corporate or in the wholesale world because I would say that Peru has gone through the perfect storm over the last five years. (inaudible), I don't know, six presidents in five years or whatever, lack of stability and so on. And therefore, private investment in general, and this was across industries, really stalled.

    Renato,謝謝你的肯定。關於你對批發端成長的問題——也請其他人之後補充——但我們一直在做的是:我先退一步說。如果你看我們過去,我不知道,五年的資產組合,基本上是持平的,而且主要是在企業端或批發端,因為我會說秘魯在過去五年經歷了完美風暴。(聽不清),我不知道,五年六位總統之類的,缺乏穩定等等。因此,整體私人投資——而且是跨產業——確實停滯了。

  • We started to see, and I believe we commented last call, private investment grew double digits. I believe it was 11% last year. And that has that pace has -- so the private investment has been -- has kept its space this quarter -- the last quarter, sorry. And what has happened on the other hand is that the domestic demand, as Alejandro mentioned, has been growing between 4% to 5% consistently over the last 6 quarter -- quarters. So across industries, there are companies that are operating at full capacity, so that's the main reason for loan growth in the wholesale portfolio.

    我們開始看到——我相信我們在上次電話會議也提到——私人投資以雙位數成長。我相信去年是11%。而且那個增速——所以私人投資在本季——抱歉,是上一季——一直維持那個步調。另一方面,如Alejandro所提到,國內需求在過去6個季度一直穩定成長約4%到5%。因此,跨產業來看,有些公司正以滿載產能運作,這就是批發組合貸款成長的主要原因。

  • Renato Meloni - Analyst

    Renato Meloni - Analyst

  • That's perfect. But if you also consider this positive economic background that you mentioned, don't you think that the 8.5% loan growth guidance for the year might be a bit too conservative.

    非常好。但如果也考量你提到的這個正向經濟背景,你不覺得全年8.5%的貸款成長指引可能有點過於保守嗎?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Could be, yes. But again, on the other hand, you're right. On the other hand, the uncertainty that we mentioned at the beginning regarding global uncertainty, definitely all prices are going to -- (inaudible) importer. So oil prices could could let the economy and the uncertainty because of the elections, and we're going back basically to somehow a binary scenario would bring some slowdown in that sense. We'll have much more clarity after the second row.

    有可能,是的。但再說一次,另一方面,你說得對。另一方面,我們在一開始提到的全球不確定性,肯定會影響所有價格——(聽不清)進口國。所以油價可能會影響經濟;再加上選舉帶來的不確定性,我們基本上又回到某種二元情境,可能會在這個意義上帶來一些放緩。第二輪之後我們會更清楚。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lindsey Shema, Goldman Sachs.

    Lindsey Shema,高盛。

  • Lindsey Shema - Analyst

    Lindsey Shema - Analyst

  • Congrats on the results, First, on deposits, we saw a really favorable improvement in deposit mix, which was partially attributed to deposits from the pension fund withdrawal. First off, how much would you attribute to pension fund withdrawal deposits? I know the last time we had talked, it was running pretty strong, and you captured a good percentage of the liquidity into the system.

    恭喜這次的業績。首先關於存款,我們看到存款結構有非常有利的改善,部分歸因於來自退休金提領的存款。首先,你們會把多少改善歸因於退休金提領帶來的存款?我記得上次我們談到時,這個趨勢相當強勁,而你們也吸收了系統中相當比例的流動性。

  • And then also how sticky would you consider those deposits? Is it something that we can expect as kind of a tailwind going forward? And then I have a second question, but I'll ask after that.

    另外,你們認為這些存款的黏著度如何?我們是否可以期待它在未來成為某種順風(tailwind)?然後我還有第二個問題,但我會在那之後再問。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Lindsay. Alejandro, can you take that one?

    謝謝你,Lindsay。Alejandro,你可以回答這題嗎?

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Lindsay. So yes, we did capture an important part of the withdrawal of the pension plan, but it's money that starts to get used and reduces over the following months. I would say that of the growth that we've seen in our deposit base, around half of it has been related to the pension fund withdrawal. The other half of it is our transactional capabilities and people operating and our principality and people operating in our system in an economy that is slowly, but turning more and more or less cash driven.

    當然。Lindsay。是的,我們確實掌握了退休金計畫提領的一個重要部分,但這筆錢會開始被動用,並在接下來幾個月逐步減少。我會說,在我們看到的存款基礎成長中,大約一半與退休基金提領有關。另一半則來自我們的交易能力,以及人們在我們的體系中運作、在我們的主要市場中運作;在一個正緩慢轉變、但越來越不那麼依賴現金的經濟體中。

  • So the money remains in the accounts. So I think there's a structural reason why we've been growing still on that side. plus there's also this pension fund withdrawal that we should see a decrease during this year and probably basically disappear. And it's also related to the prior question, it's also part of some of the retail repayments that we've seen. People use that money to repay retail and have an impact on the retail growth in the first quarter. But saran half and half between pension and withdrawals and more structural reasons.

    所以這些資金仍留在帳戶裡。因此我認為,我們在那一端仍能成長有其結構性原因;另外也有這個退休基金提領,我們應該會在今年看到下降,並且大致上會消失。而且這也與前一個問題有關,這也是我們看到部分零售端還款的一部分。人們用那筆錢償還零售貸款,並對第一季的零售成長造成影響。但大致上是一半一半:一半來自退休金提領,另一半來自更結構性的因素。

  • Lindsey Shema - Analyst

    Lindsey Shema - Analyst

  • And that was very clear. And then my second question is just on operating leverage and expenses at Yape I mean, saw pretty solid increase in operating leverage. How much of that was kind of just seasonality in expenses? How much is sustainable especially with this new digital bank initiative. And then you mentioned that you could see some material impacts from that. Is that on the expense side? Is that on revenue growth because you're talking about going into different markets, expanding on that end? Just kind of what are the impacts there.

    這點非常清楚。那我的第二個問題是關於營運槓桿以及 Yape 的費用:我看到營運槓桿有相當不錯的提升。其中有多少只是費用的季節性因素?有多少是可持續的,尤其是在這個新的數位銀行計畫之下?另外你提到可能會看到一些實質影響。那是發生在費用端嗎?還是收入成長端,因為你在談進入不同市場、在那方面擴張?大概會有哪些影響?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Frank, can you take that 1 or Alejandro, whoever?

    Frank,你可以回答這題嗎?或 Alejandro,誰來都可以?

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • Yes. So for sure that seasonality is end of the year and also the election, tape has been very active in the branding positioning around a long-term view for growth for the country. So that's one part of it. But you're spot on in terms of -- there's still a lot of technological capability and investment being building Yape around lending, around distribution, around the internationalization of the platform.

    好的。確實有季節性因素:年底以及選舉期間,Yape 在品牌與定位上非常積極,從長期角度看是為國家的成長做布局。這是其中一部分。但你說得很對:我們仍在建置大量的科技能力與投資,圍繞 Yape 的放貸、分銷/通路,以及平台的國際化。

  • So we're very mindful of the expenses. So they are not exceeding our expectations in terms of what we are planning for growth for revenue and cost as well. So I would say, under control, but yes, there's still investments to be done.

    所以我們對費用非常謹慎。就我們對收入成長與成本的規劃而言,費用並未超出我們的預期。因此我會說是在可控範圍內,但沒錯,仍有投資需要進行。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • And maybe complementing that, Lindsey. How we see this as far as income growth at a faster pace than expenses were okay. We really believe that Yape in the two, three years should be operating at a much lower cost to income, which is what we care about it. And we'll have also an impact is actually is a double impact. So the cost to income will be lower Yap will be a much more relevant business within Credicorp therefore, the positive impact in cost to income overall.

    也許補充一下,Lindsey。我們的看法是:收入成長速度快於費用是可以的。我們確實相信,Yape 在未來兩到三年應該能以更低的成本收入比運作,這才是我們關注的重點。而且也會帶來影響,實際上是雙重影響。因此成本收入比會更低,Yape 也會在 Credicorp 內成為更具相關性的重要業務,進而對整體成本收入比帶來正面影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carlos Gomez Lopez, HSBC.

    Carlos Gomez Lopez,匯豐(HSBC)。

  • Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

  • Let me join in the congratulations to Alejandro. Here for a short time, we'll miss you, but congratulations and others, in particular, for the increase in the margin. You've been telling as it was going to go up. We said it would not, but -- so congratulations on that.

    讓我也加入對 Alejandro 的祝賀。你在這裡的時間雖然不長,我們會想念你,但恭喜你;也恭喜各位,特別是利差的提升。你們一直說利差會上升。我們說不會,但——所以恭喜。

  • My question would be, again, on the asset quality and the cost of risk, which is low at this time. Could you please quantify what those recoveries in the corporate portfolio would be like. I mean when I look at the numbers, I guess your number is EUR120 million, EUR140 million lower than what I would have expected. How much did you recover? Is that 40-50, 60? Could you quantify --

    我的問題同樣是關於資產品質與風險成本,目前看起來很低。你能否量化一下公司(企業)投資組合中的那些回收會是什麼樣子?我的意思是,當我看這些數字時,我猜你的數字比我原本預期的低了 1.2 億歐元、1.4 億歐元。你們回收了多少?是 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬、6,000 萬嗎?你能否量化--

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Risk Officer

  • In a usual month PCP, you have a cost of risk of wholesale between 0.1%, 0.2%. The last quarter of last year was initially high at 0.5%. And in this quarter was minus 0.1%. So you can say between 20 and maximum 30 basis points impact as a difference between what is usual. In relation to the last quarter, is very significant, but last -- but the last quarter of last year was unusually high for the special cases that I previously described.

    在一般月份,PCP 的批發端風險成本大約在 0.1% 到 0.2%。去年第四季一開始偏高,達到 0.5%。而本季是 -0.1%。所以你可以說,相較於通常水準,差異的影響大約在 20 到最多 30 個基點。相較於上一季差異非常顯著,但——去年第四季之所以異常偏高,是因為我先前描述的特殊個案。

  • Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

  • Okay. So 20 or 30 basis points on the wholesale portfolio.

    好的。所以在批發投資組合上是 20 或 30 個基點。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And if I can ask a question on Yape. We understand that the Central Bank is bringing in UPI from India. Could you tell us what impact positive or negative that might have on your business?

    如果我可以再問一個關於 Yape 的問題。我們了解到央行正引入印度的 UPI。你能告訴我們這對你們的業務可能會有什麼正面或負面影響嗎?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Franc, can you take that one, please?

    Franc,你可以回答這題嗎,謝謝?

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • Yes, it's Carlos. Definitely, there's two views or two dimensions around the UPI. So we do believe that there is still an opportunity to capture after cash Peru is a based economy. So there is potential to grow in transactions. And having said that, of course, there's one of the other players, new entrants in this payment ecosystem.

    好的,Carlos。關於 UPI,確實有兩種觀點或兩個面向。我們確實相信仍有機會去承接「去現金化」的趨勢,秘魯是一個以現金為主的經濟體。因此交易量仍有成長潛力。話雖如此,當然也會有其他參與者、支付生態系中的新進入者。

  • But if you look at the APEX results and Apex plants over time, of being a super app and now a neobank into that. we have consistently been able to cross-sell our products. We're almost reaching three features per active users in Yape, different fixed margin payments, but whether it's utilities lending. So it gives us an opportunity to tap into a bigger market. And this is the view we're having, and we're participating aggressively with the (inaudible) in the pilot.

    但如果你看 Yape 的成果以及 Yape 隨時間的規劃:從超級 App 到現在朝新型銀行(neobank)發展,我們一直都能夠交叉銷售我們的產品。我們在 Yape 的活躍用戶上,平均幾乎達到每位用戶三項功能,包含不同的固定費率支付,不論是公用事業繳費或放貸。因此這讓我們有機會切入更大的市場。這就是我們的看法,而且我們也在試點中與(聽不清)積極參與。

  • Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez Lopez - Analyst

  • And the project could be another payment network or you would join the payment network or you will be connected possible.

    那這個專案會是另一個支付網路?還是你們會加入該支付網路?或者你們會以某種方式連接?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • Yes. We will definitely be connected. So this is a completely interoperable system, and we could have our own closed loop for our own transactions wherever we want -- we believe this is better, whether it's a UX experience or -- of course, if it's a cost issue, but it makes the market bigger because it becomes -- everything becomes interoperable.

    是的。我們一定會連接。這是一個完全可互通的系統;而且我們也可以針對我們自己的交易保有自己的封閉迴路(closed loop),在我們想要的地方——我們認為這樣更好,不論是使用者體驗(UX)或——當然也可能是成本因素;但它會讓市場變大,因為——一切都變得可互通。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andres Soto, Santander.

    Andres Soto,Santander。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • My question also is around Japan this time around in terms of the contribution to Credicorp. When I look at the contribution to revenue, it's already at 8% for the quarter. contribution to EBITDA is at 7%. So I have three spur questions around these numbers. The first one is, previously, you had mentioned that you expected the (inaudible) initiatives to represent 10% of revenue. Yape alone is already almost at that level. So what will be your new target for your disruptive initiatives in terms of the revenue contribution to Credicorp.

    我的問題這次也與 Yape 有關,主要是它對 Credicorp 的貢獻。當我看對收入的貢獻時,本季已達 8%;對 EBITDA 的貢獻為 7%。所以我對這些數字有三個延伸問題。第一個是:先前你們提到,預期(聽不清)的創新計畫將占收入的 10%。單就 Yape 而言已經幾乎到那個水準。那你們對於顛覆式計畫在收入貢獻(對 Credicorp)的新目標會是什麼?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Andres, great question. All your Francesca.

    Andres,問得很好。都是你的 Francesca。

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • So initially, we've shared many times with you in the Investor Day and the digital conversations we've been having. We set ourselves our target four years ago to represent 10% of risk adjusted income for Credicorp. We're very happy, of course, as you mentioned that Yape is one of the big ones. And our initial expectation was once these initiatives got into specific growth, they would graduate into more mature businesses. In the case of Vape, what we are seeing is that it's still offering growth at a much faster pace than of businesses that are more incumbent.

    所以一開始,我們在投資人日以及我們一直在進行的數位對話中,已多次與各位分享。我們在四年前為自己設定目標:讓這些計畫為 Credicorp 貢獻風險調整後收入的 10%。當然我們非常高興,正如你提到的,Yape 是其中最大的之一。我們最初的預期是,一旦這些計畫進入特定的成長階段,就會「畢業」成為更成熟的業務。以 Vape 為例,我們看到的是,它仍以遠快於較既有業務的速度提供成長。

  • So we are actually today working around what the new North metric would be. And as you know, we're going to set aggressive metrics in terms of the contribution of the initiatives. Having said that, we're also beginning to see relevant contributions. Of course, they're smaller around cookie, around other initiatives as (inaudible), what we've mentioned before. And we are currently reviewing to get a new appetite for the next four years or three years.

    因此,我們目前其實正在研議新的北極星指標會是什麼。而如你所知,我們將在計畫貢獻度方面設定具進取性的指標。話雖如此,我們也開始看到具意義的貢獻。當然,其他計畫的貢獻較小,例如 cookie、以及其他一些計畫(聽不清),如同我們之前提過的。我們目前正在檢視,為接下來四年或三年建立新的投入意願(appetite)。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • And the metric will be still around revenue because for Jake specifically, the number for contribution to profitability is almost the same as for revenue. So in my numbers, I have that Yape would represent as much as 30% of earnings of Credicorp by 2028. And do you see any reasons for that not to happen? Or in terms of how you measure your digital appetite will be still revenue, the relevant metric? Or you will start looking at profitability?

    而該指標仍會圍繞在營收,因為就 Jake 而言,對獲利的貢獻數字幾乎與營收相同。所以在我的估算中,Yape 到 2028 年可能會占 Credicorp 獲利的多達 30%。你是否看到任何理由使這件事不會發生?或者就你們衡量數位投入意願而言,仍會以營收作為關鍵指標嗎?還是你們會開始看獲利能力?

  • Unidentified Company Representative

    Unidentified Company Representative

  • So we're actually going to look at two things. One is the portfolio for disruptive initiatives, we think revenue is still the correct metric. And as you remember, we also set limit in terms of investments around ROE and around cost to income, which is something that we are constantly looking at and reviewing. But once we have a venture that is profitable, of course, we're going to set profitability indicators as well.

    所以我們其實會看兩件事。第一,對於顛覆式計畫的投資組合,我們認為營收仍是正確的指標。而且如你所記得的,我們也在投資方面設定了限制,例如 ROE 以及成本收入比(cost to income),這些都是我們持續關注並檢視的。但一旦某個創投(venture)開始獲利,當然我們也會設定獲利指標。

  • And once we have this much clearer, we'll share what initiatives actually contribute to the limits of whether it's ROE or cost to income or the amount of cash expenditures ones that need still time to mature where revenue adjusted income is the right metric. So this is a work in progress, and we will have this here for the next two months or three months.

    而當我們把這些釐清得更清楚後,我們會分享哪些計畫實際上對限制項目有所貢獻——不論是 ROE、成本收入比,或是仍需時間成熟、需要現金支出的金額;對於仍需時間成熟的計畫,風險調整後收入仍是合適的指標。所以這是一個進行中的工作,我們會在接下來兩到三個月內完成。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Exactly. Just to complement Francesca, Andreas, I don't remember if I said (inaudible) at the beginning. We're exactly in that process. When we said that, that goal was two, three years ago, we -- there was a lot of uncertainty because these are disruptive initiatives. As we all know, Yape has been quite a success is, I would say, much more advanced in terms of results than what we originally expected in terms of size of the results and timing of the results.

    沒錯。補充 Francesca 的說法,Andreas,我不記得我一開始是否提到(聽不清)。我們正是在這個過程中。當我們在兩三年前提出那個目標時——我們當時有很多不確定性,因為這些是顛覆式計畫。如大家所知,Yape 相當成功;我會說,就成果而言,它在結果規模與達成時間上都比我們原先預期更為超前。

  • And we're in that -- exactly in that process. Should we start measuring something and providing something different to the market. And that's the process. We hope that by next quarter, we will share that with you. Just a quick comment. We do expect this year that the overall disruptive initiatives, ROE are going to be accretive to Credicorp's ROE.

    而我們正處於——正是在這個過程中。我們是否應該開始用不同方式衡量,並向市場提供不同的資訊。這就是目前的進程。我們希望在下個季度就能與各位分享。再快速補充一句。我們確實預期今年整體顛覆式計畫的 ROE 將對 Credicorp 的 ROE 具有增益(accretive)。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • Perfect. And on that note, Japan setting new targets. I think that the other new target that we need to hear from you is regarding the overall medium-term target for Credicorp as a whole. In my numbers, if Yape is bound to represent, as I said, 30% of earnings that will represent -- that will imply that credit card barrow by 2028 is going to be 25%. So the 19.5% is extremely, extremely conservative.

    很好。在這個脈絡下,Yape 設定新目標。我認為我們還需要聽到你們提出的另一個新目標,是關於 Credicorp 整體的中期目標。以我的估算,如果如我所說 Yape 將占獲利的 30%,那將意味著到 2028 年 Credicorp 的 ROE 會是 25%。所以 19.5% 真的、真的非常保守。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • I'm taking note for us to set the goal for the team. No, jokes aside, remember last call that when we provided the -- actually, Alejandro prior guidance, he said, which is all of us, that by next call, after the results of the elections, we depending on the results, we may provide what we call a sustainable ROE that might be in north of 20. So let's wait. We're I don't know, three, four months away from that and let's see what happens. And at the same time, we're working on what Francesca just mentioned.

    我記下來,讓我們把這個目標交給團隊。不過說笑歸說笑,記得上一次電話會議,當我們提供——其實是 Alejandro 先前的指引時,他說(也代表我們所有人),在下一次電話會議、在選舉結果出爐之後,我們會視結果而定,可能提供我們所稱的「可持續 ROE」,可能會在 20% 以上。所以再等等。我們大概還有三、四個月,看看會發生什麼。同時,我們也在進行 Francesca 剛提到的工作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.

    Yuri Fernandes,摩根大通(JPMorgan)。

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • Franco, Alejandra, Francesco (inaudible). Congrats in (inaudible) and also Alejandro, so repeating the words of everybody here. I'm going to miss you, Alejandro. So on -- just a follow-up on trying to match two different questions on the call. margins and cost of risk for the guidance on risk adjusted, right?

    Franco、Alejandra、Francesco(聽不清)。恭喜(聽不清),也恭喜 Alejandro,我也重複在座各位的話。我會想念你,Alejandro。那麼——我想追問一下,嘗試把電話會議中兩個不同問題對起來:在風險調整後指引上,利差(margins)與風險成本(cost of risk),對嗎?

  • So what I understood from the call is cost of risk was low on wholesale and all the seasonality and you're growing so cost of risk should move up, but you feel very comfortable with asset quality. But margins, the funding question, I think it's good, right? You have a very good funding. I think that helps. And on the asset mix, this quarter, another question was wholesale, right? You're growing more on wholesale after years of not growing and now it's going to be coming from retail. So the way I see here is there is upside risk for your margins and correct me if you disagree.

    我從電話會議理解到的是:批發端(wholesale)的風險成本偏低,加上季節性因素,而你們在成長,所以風險成本應該會上升,但你們對資產品質非常有信心。但利差方面,資金來源(funding)的問題,我覺得是好的,對吧?你們的資金來源非常好。我想這會有幫助。至於資產組合(asset mix),這一季另一個問題是批發端,對吧?你們在多年未成長後,現在批發端成長較多,而接下來會由零售端(retail)帶動。所以我這樣看,你們的利差存在上行風險;如果你不同意請糾正我。

  • But cost of risk should also move up. Thinking those things together, Jon Franco, do you believe like you can continue to have your risk-adjusted NIM above the guidance as you are seeing here because again, asset quality has been good, means could have an upside. So just trying to understand if the guidance for risk-adjusted margins would it be a little bit better or at least to stay on the high level that we are seeing this quarter?

    但風險成本也應該會上升。把這些放在一起思考,Jon Franco,你是否認為你們可以讓風險調整後淨利差(risk-adjusted NIM)持續高於指引,就像這一季看到的那樣?因為資產品質一直很好,意味著可能還有上行空間。所以我想了解的是:風險調整後利差的指引,是否可能會更好一些,或至少維持在我們這一季看到的高水準?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, again, if there wasn't this uncertainty, global uncertainty and the political situation in Peru, maybe we would have provided a new guidance today, so I will be providing a strong yes to you. But there are 2 if -- too many IPs, we believe, as we speak. So everything tells us that your question is totally valid and your hypothesis is correct, but we'd rather wait and see really. Sorry for being so vague in my response, but that's what we feel today. What we (inaudible)

    是的,再次強調,如果沒有這些不確定性——全球不確定性以及秘魯的政治情勢——也許我們今天就會提供新的指引,所以我本來會很肯定地回答你「是」。但目前變數太多——我們認為此刻有太多未知因素。所以各方面都顯示你的問題完全合理、你的假設也正確,但我們寧可再觀察看看。抱歉我的回答很模糊,但這就是我們今天的感受。我們(聽不清)

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • No. It helps to understand the potential upside risk, but you are somewhat being conservative given the uncertainties in the center. It helps us here. If I may just so -- go ahead.

    了解。這有助於理解潛在的上行風險,但在核心不確定性下,你們仍偏向保守。這對我們很有幫助。如果可以的話,我再——請繼續。

  • Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

    Alejandro Perez-Reyes - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sorry, this is Alejandro. Let me you to Yupe. So no, I just wanted to say that your assumption is correct in the sense that given the low cost of risk we're experiencing and the strong NIM, we should be on the upper side of the risk-adjusted NIM for the year. But again, as (inaudible) Franco has mentioned, there are a lot of questions still out there. But we believe we can have a risk-adjusted NIM that continues to improve in the coming quarters.

    抱歉,我是 Alejandro。我讓你轉給 Yupe。所以不是,我只是想說,你的假設在某種意義上是正確的:鑑於我們目前所經歷的低風險成本以及強勁的 NIM,我們今年的風險調整後 NIM 應該會落在較高區間。但同樣地,正如(聽不清)Franco 所提到的,外界仍然有很多問題尚未釐清。不過我們相信,未來幾季我們的風險調整後 NIM 仍可持續改善。

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • (inaudible). If I may, just a second one quick one. Just thinking about the profitability of the subsidiaries, right? When you go to Credicorp Capital, Pacifico, Mibanco. Well, BCP was amazing this quarter. All the subsidiaries, they are running on levels of ROEs that historically, I believe, is the number that you usually mentioned. I think maybe Pacifico is a little bit below the 20s, but very close to that.

    (聽不清)。如果可以的話,我再快速問第二個問題。我在想子公司的獲利能力,對吧?像是 Credicorp Capital、Pacifico、Mibanco。嗯,BCP 這一季表現非常亮眼。所有子公司的 ROE 都在歷史上、我認為,是你們通常會提到的那個水準。我想 Pacifico 可能略低於 20% 多的區間,但非常接近。

  • Maybe to Franco, like, where do you see upside risk other Tania on the subsidiaries? Do you think like there is room for further improvement of profitability of any of the subsidiaries or are most of your take here is maybe a be the main driver for further profitability improvement for the group.

    也許問 Franco:在子公司方面,除了 Tania 之外,你認為上行風險在哪裡?你覺得任何一家子公司的獲利能力還有進一步改善的空間嗎?還是你主要的看法是,可能 BCP 會是推動集團獲利進一步提升的主要動能?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Great question, Yuri. And specifically on Pacifico, what we believe and we've been vocal about it is that Pacifico over the last few -- couple of years, it's ROE has been over, I believe, 25%. We believe that's not sustainable. What we believe it's sustainable. It's around which is where it is today. About the other subsidiaries, Mibanco is where we want to have it in terms of ROE.

    好問題,Yuri。特別是就 Pacifico 而言,我們的看法、而且我們也一直公開表達的是:Pacifico 在過去幾——幾年裡,它的 ROE 我記得一直在 25% 以上。我們認為那是不具可持續性的。我們認為可持續的水準,大約就是目前所在的水準。至於其他子公司,Mibanco 的 ROE 目前就在我們希望達到的水準。

  • Maybe record capital, there's a potential opportunity to increase to slightly increase ROE, even though we do have opportunities for growth there. So we might be investing a little bit more. And you're right. (inaudible) is going to be a driver for sure. But also bearing and, as I just mentioned, that the overall disruptive initiatives are being accretive.

    至於 Credicorp Capital,ROE 可能有機會小幅提升,儘管我們在那裡也有成長機會。因此我們可能會多投入一些。你說得對,(聽不清)肯定會成為一個驅動因素。但同時也要記得,正如我剛提到的,整體的顛覆式(轉型)計畫正在帶來增益(具增厚效果)。

  • And (inaudible) is the most obvious one, obvious one, but there are others that they're either positive already or less negative and reaching breakeven. So overall, there might be a further positive impact going forward.

    而(聽不清)是最明顯的一個、最明顯的一個,但還有其他項目,要嘛已經轉為正貢獻,要嘛負面影響變小並正接近損益兩平。因此整體而言,未來可能還會帶來進一步的正面影響。

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • Congrats on the execution in all those years.

    恭喜你們這些年的執行成果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It appears there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

    看起來目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給執行長 Gianfranco Ferrari 先生,請他做結語。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you. Let me close by bolting things in perspective and reflecting on the strength of our franchise. Credicorp has been around for over 30 years. And through BCP, we have more than 135 years of experience navigating complex and often volatile environment.

    謝謝。最後我想把事情放回大局來看,並回顧我們特許經營的實力。Credicorp 已經成立超過 30 年。而透過 BCP,我們擁有超過 135 年在複雜且經常波動的環境中航行的經驗。

  • Over that time, we've played a key role in supporting Peru's development, consistently working to expand access to financial services and advance the progress of individuals, businesses and communities. This commitment is deeply connected to our mission of improving in life through financial inclusion, and it is what has allowed us to build a resilient institution with a truly long-term perspective.

    在這段期間,我們在支持秘魯發展方面扮演了關鍵角色,持續致力於擴大金融服務的可及性,並推動個人、企業與社區的進步。這項承諾與我們透過金融普惠改善生活的使命緊密相連,也正是它讓我們得以建立一個具韌性、真正以長期視角運作的機構。

  • Looking ahead, we continue to see compelling opportunities in the region. The external backdrop remains favorable with what could evolve into a new commodity super cycle, and countries such as Peru and Chile particularly well positioned to benefit. Peru, in particular, is entering this period with healthy domestic demand, low inflation and a financial system that remains solid and liquid. These conditions create an important opportunity to accelerate investment, employment and productivity over the coming years.

    展望未來,我們仍在該區域看到極具吸引力的機會。外部環境依然有利,可能演變為新一輪的大宗商品超級循環,而秘魯與智利等國尤其具備受惠的良好條件。尤其是秘魯,正以健康的內需、低通膨,以及依然穩健且流動性充裕的金融體系進入這一階段。這些條件為未來幾年加速投資、就業與生產力創造了重要機會。

  • Credicorp is uniquely positioned to capture that opportunity. This quarter is another clear reflection of that position with record high results that demonstrate both the consistency and strength of our franchise. At the same time, we have increasing clarity around our strategic priorities and are seeing tangible progress across our key growth anchors, reinforcing our confidence in our ability to sustain performance over the medium term while continuing to support our clients and the broader economy.

    Credicorp 具備獨特優勢來把握這個機會。本季再次清楚反映了這一點:創紀錄的高成果展現了我們特許經營的穩定性與實力。同時,我們對策略優先事項的方向也愈發清晰,並在關鍵成長支柱上看到具體進展,進一步強化我們的信心:我們有能力在中期維持表現,同時持續支持客戶與更廣泛的經濟。

  • Before closing, I would like to briefly step back from the short-term political debate. While the leading candidates, presidential candidates represent different visions for the country's economic future, we believe Peru's institutional framework and system of checks and balances continue to provide important safeguards for stability and policy continuity. What matters most now is preserving the conditions that allow the country to move forward while continuing to advance key social priorities such as education, health care, infrastructure, infrastructure and policy reduction.

    在結束之前,我想先簡短地從短期政治辯論中抽離一步。雖然主要候選人、總統候選人對國家經濟未來代表不同願景,但我們相信秘魯的制度架構以及制衡體系仍能提供重要的保障,以維持穩定與政策延續性。當下最重要的是維持讓國家得以前進的條件,同時持續推進關鍵社會優先事項,例如教育、醫療、基礎建設、基礎建設以及減貧政策。

  • Peru has a unique opportunity to achieve a more profound and lasting transformation, and it cannot afford to lose that momentum. Thank you for your time today, and we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter.

    秘魯擁有實現更深刻且更持久轉型的獨特機會,不能失去這股動能。感謝各位今天撥冗參與,我們期待在下個季度再次與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的簡報到此結束。您現在可以掛線。