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Operator
Operator
Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Credicorp Limited third quarter 2025 conference call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast, which is available in the Investors section of Credicorp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Now it is my pleasure to turn the conference call over to Credicorp's IRO, Milagros Ciguenas, you may begin.
各位早安。歡迎各位參加 Credicorp Limited 2025 年第三季電話會議。今天的網路直播將附帶幻燈片演示,可在 Credicorp 網站的投資者關係部分查看。今天的電話會議正在錄音。(操作員指示)現在我很高興將電話會議交給 Credicorp 的 IRO Milagros Ciguenas,您可以開始了。
Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer
Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer
Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Executive Officer; and Alejandro Perez-Reyes, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating in the Q&A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer; Cesar Rios, Chief Risk Officer; Cesar Rivera, CFO of Insurance and Pensions; and Rocio Benavides, Mibanco's Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝大家,大家早安。在今天的電話會議上,我們的執行長 Gianfranco Ferrari 和財務長 Alejandro Perez-Reyes 將發言。參與問答環節的還有:首席創新官 Francesca Raffo;首席風險官 Cesar Rios;保險和養老金首席財務官 Cesar Rivera;以及 Mibanco 首席財務官 Rocio Benavides。
Before we proceed, I would like to make the following safe harbor statement. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC.
在繼續之前,我想先做出以下安全港聲明。今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期和信念,並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,請參閱我們盈利報告和最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中的前瞻性陳述部分。
We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances. Gianfranco Ferrari will begin the call with remarks on key messages of our recent Investor Day, our recent political and macro environment and a brief overview of our quarterly results followed by Alejandro Perez-Reyes, who will provide a more detailed analysis of macroeconomic indicators, our financial performance and our outlook for full year 2025.
我們不承擔因新的或變更的事件或情況而更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。Gianfranco Ferrari 將首先就我們最近的投資者日、近期的政治和宏觀環境以及季度業績的簡要概述發表講話,隨後 Alejandro Perez-Reyes 將對宏觀經濟指標、我們的財務業績以及 2025 年全年展望進行更詳細的分析。
Gianfranco, please go ahead.
吉安弗蘭科,請繼續。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Milagros. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us to review Credicorp's results for the third quarter of 2025. Just over a month ago, we had the pleasure of hosting our Investor Day in New York, where we marked 30 years since Credicorp's listing on the New York stock Exchange and shared our road map for sustainable growth and impact.
謝謝你,米拉格羅斯。各位早安,感謝各位參加本次會議,共同回顧 Credicorp 2025 年第三季的表現。就在一個多月前,我們很榮幸在紐約舉辦了投資者日活動,慶祝 Credicorp 在紐約證券交易所上市 30 週年,並分享了我們實現可持續增長和影響力的路線圖。
Our strategy is anchored in three key pillars: First, we are accelerating the scalability and monetization of our digital ecosystem by financially including more people and expanding the formal cashless economy. Platforms like Yape, Tenpo and [Garda] are playing a bigger role across payments, credit and savings and are already generating new revenue streams.
我們的策略以三大支柱為基礎:首先,我們正在透過讓更多人參與金融活動和擴大正規的無現金經濟來加速我們數位生態系統的規模化和貨幣化。Yape、Tenpo 和 [Garda] 等平台在支付、信貸和儲蓄領域發揮著越來越重要的作用,並且已經創造了新的收入來源。
Second, we are unlocking growth through business synergies across all our businesses by leveraging shared capabilities in data and AI talent and cross-business platforms to drive revenue diversification and efficiency.
其次,我們正在利用數據和人工智慧人才以及跨業務平台的共享能力,透過所有業務之間的協同效應釋放成長潛力,從而推動收入多元化和效率提升。
And third, we're executing with discipline with a focus on profitability thresholds capital allocation and long-term value creation across both our core and disruptive initiatives. We also reaffirm our medium-term targets an ROE of 19.5% and an efficiency ratio around 42% over a three to four year period. These goals underpinned by scalable platforms, improving asset quality and disciplined growth.
第三,我們以嚴謹的態度執行,專注於獲利門檻、資本配置以及在核心業務和顛覆性創新中創造長期價值。我們也重申了我們的中期目標,在未來三到四年內實現 19.5% 的淨資產收益率和 42% 左右的效率比率。這些目標以可擴展的平台、不斷提高的資產品質和穩健的成長為基礎。
Before turning to the quarter's results, let me take a moment to acknowledge the recent political developments in Peru and macro conditions across the markets where we operate. Later on October 9, Peru's Congress voted to impeach President, Dina Boluarte, citing permanent moral incapacity shortly after the Head of Congress, [sherif] was sworn in as present.
在介紹本季業績之前,請容許我花一點時間談談秘魯最近的政治發展以及我們營運所在市場的宏觀狀況。10 月 9 日晚些時候,秘魯國會投票彈劾總統迪娜·博盧阿爾特,理由是她永久喪失了道德能力。就在國會主席宣誓就職後不久,國會就做出了這個決定。
This follows a period of low approval ratings and growing public frustration with prime and governance. While a broad leadership transitions have unfortunately become part of Peruvian landscape, the country has also demonstrated a long history of economic resilience and institutional continuity.
此前,該黨支持率一直很低,民眾對黨魁和政府的不滿情緒也日益加劇。雖然領導階層頻繁更迭不幸已成為秘魯社會的一部分,但該國也展現出了長期的經濟韌性和製度連續性。
At Credicorp, we've built our strategy and operating model for resilience. Our geographic and business diversification, strong capital and liquidity position and disciplined risk management allow us to stay focused on delivery even as the external environment shifts.
在 Credicorp,我們建構了具有韌性的策略和營運模式。我們憑藉地域和業務多元化、雄厚的資本和流動性以及嚴謹的風險管理,即使在外部環境變化的情況下,也能專注於交付成果。
Over the past 30 years as a listed company, we've generated another total shareholder return above 14%, consistently outperforming our regional peers. That track record reflects more than strong financials. It speaks to a business model built to navigate uncertainty decoupled from macro cycles and anchored in long-term value creation. That's why when events like recent political changes unfold, we remain rounded and focused on what we can control. As always, we are monitoring developments closely.
作為一家上市公司,過去 30 年來,我們為股東創造了超過 14% 的總回報率,持續優於區域同業。這一業績記錄不僅反映了強勁的財務狀況。它體現了一種旨在應對不確定性、與宏觀週期脫鉤、並以長期價值創造為核心的商業模式。正因如此,當發生像近期政治變革這樣的事件時,我們才能保持全面和專注,把注意力放在我們能夠控制的事情上。我們將一如既往地密切關注事態發展。
The macroeconomic environment during the quarter was relatively stable with key indicators pointing to a global recovery across the region. In Peru, GDP growth for 2025 is now projected at 3.4%, up slightly above 3%. This revision is driven by higher-than-expected export prices and a boost of consumption following the eighth pension fund withdrawal.
本季宏觀經濟環境相對穩定,關鍵指標顯示該地區全球經濟正在復甦。目前秘魯 2025 年預計的 GDP 成長率為 3.4%,略高於 3%。此調整是由於出口價格高於預期,以及第八次退休基金提款後消費增加所致。
Domestic demand is forecast to grow nearly 6% its asset space in over a decade outside the pandemic rebound, driven by a more advanced economic cycle, record terms of trade, control inflation supporting real wages and advising trade demand. These trends point to improving business conditions with mining investment outlook strengthened by favorable export prices and new project ramp-ups.
預計在疫情反彈之外的十年多時間裡,國內需求將增長近 6%,這主要得益於更成熟的經濟週期、創紀錄的貿易條件、控制通膨以支撐實際工資和促進貿易需求。這些趨勢表明,隨著出口價格走強和新項目投產,礦業投資前景日益樂觀,商業環境正在改善。
Despite the upcoming 2026 elections, we expect GDP growth to remain resilient, between 3% to 3.5%, largely supported by sustained gains in terms of trade. With inflation forecasted at 1.8% for 2025 and 2% for 2026, it remains comfortably within the Central Bank's 1% to 3% target range.
儘管即將迎來 2026 年大選,但我們預計 GDP 成長將保持韌性,介於 3% 至 3.5% 之間,這主要得益於貿易方面的持續成長。預計2025年通膨率為1.8%,2026年為2%,仍處於央行1%至3%的目標區間內。
In September, the Central Bank carries positive rate for the third time this year to 4.25%, bringing it close to neutral level. This itch in cycle is already supporting credit growth and private consumption. Affects Markets and external balances also remained stable, supported by high commodity prices.
9月份,央行今年第三次維持正利率,至4.25%,使其接近中性水準。這種週期性的需求已經支撐了信貸成長和私人消費。受大宗商品價格高漲的支撐,市場和外部平衡也保持穩定。
In Chile, GDP growth is driven by favorable terms of trade, mining reinvestment and resilient consumption, with a more pro-market outlook boosting medium-term expectations. Colombia's GDP is expected to grow 2.3% in 2025, up from just 1.6% in 2024, though fiscal pressures keep [sending] cautious.
在智利,有利的貿易條件、礦業再投資和強勁的消費推動了GDP成長,更親市場的前景提振了中期預期。預計哥倫比亞 2025 年的 GDP 將成長 2.3%,高於 2024 年的 1.6%,但財政壓力仍然令人謹慎。
In Bolivia, economic adjustment challenges remain, but [Rodrigo] apast elections it ends two decades of mass rule raising hopes for a more pragmatic reform-oriented economic agenda. All in all, we continue to navigate a dynamic external environment with products, agility and a focused approach to the areas where we can drive long-term value. With that context, let me now walk you through the key results of the third quarter.
在玻利維亞,經濟調整挑戰依然存在,但羅德里戈在上次選舉中結束了長達二十年的大規模統治,人們對更務實、以改革為導向的經濟議程抱持希望。總而言之,我們將繼續憑藉產品、敏捷性和專注於能夠創造長期價值的領域的策略,應對瞬息萬變的外部環境。有了這些背景信息,現在讓我帶您了解第三季度的主要成果。
We had another strong quarter with robust performance across our core businesses and consistent delivery on our strategic priorities. These results drove an ROE of 19.6% anchored in healthy operations and a proven risk posture. Universal Banking and insurance and pensions delivered very strong results, while microfinance continued progressing steadily towards its medium-term profitability target.
本季我們核心業務表現強勁,策略重點也持續推進,取得了另一個強勁的業績。這些業績推動公司實現了 19.6% 的淨資產收益率,這得益於健康的營運和穩健的風險控制。綜合銀行、保險和退休金業務取得了非常強勁的業績,而小額信貸業務也繼續穩步朝著其中期獲利目標邁進。
Fee-based and transactional income also grew, underscoring the strength and diversity of our platform. Our innovation portfolio contributed 7.4% of our risk-adjusted revenue, keeping us firmly on track to our 10% target for 2026.
手續費收入和交易收入也實現了成長,凸顯了我們平台的實力和多樣性。我們的創新組合貢獻了我們經風險調整後收入的 7.4%,使我們穩步朝著 2026 年 10% 的目標邁進。
Turning to operate activity, dynamics improved and FX-neutral loan growth accelerated to 7% year-over-year. Origination pipelines remain healthy, particularly in retail banking and microfinance, positioning us for further momentum in the fourth quarter.
經營活動方面,情勢有所改善,以匯率中立計算的貸款成長加速至年增 7%。貸款業務管道仍然健康,尤其是在零售銀行和小額信貸領域,為我們在第四季度取得進一步成長奠定了基礎。
The positive credit momentum also supported margins. Risk-adjusted NIM stood at 5.5% in year-to-date figures supported by better asset quality and our structurally efficient low-cost funding base. On the deposit side, we raised the share of demand and saving accounts to 39.5%, a direct reflection of our digital engagement strategy and the trust we've earned from our clients.
積極的信貸勢頭也支撐了利潤率。年初至今,經風險調整後的淨利差為 5.5%,這得益於資產品質的改善和我們結構高效且低成本的融資基礎。在存款方面,我們將活期存款和儲蓄帳戶的份額提高到 39.5%,這直接反映了我們的數位參與策略以及我們贏得的客戶信任。
Asset quality also continued to trend favorably, benefiting from enhanced origination standards, refined risk-based pricing and stronger collection execution. Lastly, from an operational standpoint, our efficiency ratio came in at 46.4%, well within our expected range, reflecting the leverage in our digital capabilities and our disciplined cost management. Capital levels remain strong across all businesses.
資產品質也持續呈現良好趨勢,受益於更高的貸款發放標準、更完善的風險定價和更強有力的催收執行。最後,從營運角度來看,我們的效率比率為 46.4%,遠在我們預期的範圍內,這反映了我們在數位化能力和嚴格成本管理方面的優勢。所有企業的資本水準依然強勁。
With that, I'll turn it over to Alejandro to discuss our results and provide more insight into our operational and financial performance. Alejandro, please go ahead.
接下來,我將把發言權交給 Alejandro,讓他來討論我們的業績,並更深入地分析我們的營運和財務表現。亞歷杭德羅,請繼續。
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Thank you, Gianfranco, and good morning, everyone. This quarter's 19.6% ROE reflects sustained momentum in our core businesses and the increasing contribution of our innovation portfolio. We revalued Bolivia's balance sheet using a more market-reflective exchange rate, we generated an accounting year-over-year contraction of 2.1% in Credicorp's total assets this quarter.
謝謝你,吉安弗蘭科,大家早安。本季 19.6% 的淨資產收益率反映了我們核心業務的持續成長動能以及創新產品組合貢獻的不斷增加。我們使用更能反映市場狀況的匯率重新評估了玻利維亞的資產負債表,導致 Credicorp 本季的總資產年減了 2.1%。
As I discuss the quarter's highlights, I will focus on the year-over-year operating trends. Loans measured in quarter end balances increased 1.5%, negatively impacted by the revaluation of Bolivia's balance sheet and the depreciation in BCP's dollar portfolio.
在討論本季亮點時,我將重點放在同比營運趨勢。以季度末餘額衡量的貸款成長了 1.5%,受到玻利維亞資產負債表重估和 BCP 美元投資組合貶值的負面影響。
Excluding these effects, FX-neutral loan growth for the quarter was 7%. This increase was driven primarily by BCP mainly through mortgages and consumer loans in retail banking and by value. Asset quality has improved materially year-over-year. NPLs contracted across the board and Credicorp's NPL ratio stood at 4.8% this quarter.
剔除這些影響,本季以匯率中立計算的貸款成長率為 7%。這一成長主要由 BCP 推動,主要體現在零售銀行業務的抵押貸款和消費貸款以及貸款金額方面。資產品質較上年同期有顯著改善。不良貸款全面減少,Credicorp 的不良貸款率本季為 4.8%。
The cost of risk fell to 1.7% on the back of fortified risk management and supported by improvements in payment performance and in the Peru and economy. Net interest income increased 2.7% spurred by a contraction in interest expenses after interest rates fell and low-cost deposits expanded and accounted for 58.1% of the funding base.
由於風險管理的加強以及支付績效和秘魯經濟的改善,風險成本降至 1.7%。利率下降導致利息支出收縮,加上低成本存款擴大並佔資金基礎的 58.1%,淨利息收入增加了 2.7%。
In this context, NIM increased to stand at 6.6%. Other core income grew 11.9%. Fee income increased 8.2%, boosted by transactional activity at Yape and BCP. Gains on FX transactions rose 23.4% through higher volumes at BCP.
在此背景下,淨利率上升至 6.6%。其他核心收入成長11.9%。手續費收入成長了 8.2%,這主要得益於 Yape 和 BCP 的交易活動。由於 BCP 交易量增加,外匯交易收益上漲了 23.4%。
Lastly, the insurance underwriting result grew 33.1%, reflecting a stronger insurance service results in the life business. On the efficiency front, our cost-to-income ratio stood within guidance at 46.4%. Next slide, please. Peru's economic outlook remains positive despite former President [Alberto] impeachment. So far, there has been no significant impact on key financial variables, such as interest rates and the exchange rate.
最後,保險承保績效成長了 33.1%,反映出人壽保險業務的表現更加強勁。在效率方面,我們的成本收入比為 46.4%,符合預期。請看下一張投影片。儘管前總統(阿爾貝托)遭到彈劾,但秘魯的經濟前景依然樂觀。到目前為止,利率和匯率等關鍵金融變數尚未受到重大影響。
The pace of GDP growth accelerated in the third quarter to stand around 3.5% year-over-year. Domestic demand continued to outpace overall GDP growth as it has since mid-2024, expanding at a robust 6% for the fourth consecutive quarter. This sustained momentum is attributable to the mid-cycle phase of the economy and to the fact that the terms of trade are at the most favorable level seen in the past 75 years.
第三季GDP成長加快,年增約3.5%。自 2024 年年中以來,國內需求持續超過整體 GDP 成長速度,連續第四季維持強勁成長 6%。這種持續的成長勢頭歸功於經濟處於週期中期,以及貿易條件處於近75年來最有利的水平。
High-frequency indicators continue to point to robust economic activity, driven by a steady recovery in employment and real wages. In terms of private investment, business expectations, one of its key drivers remain in optimistic territory.
高頻指標持續顯示經濟活動強勁,就業和實質薪資穩定復甦是推動經濟活動持續成長的因素。就私人投資而言,其主要驅動因素之一的商業預期仍然處於樂觀狀態。
Meanwhile, core proxies such as heavy-duty vehicle sales, capital goods, imports and terms of trade continued to grow at a double-digit pace. We revised our year-end GDP growth forecast upward from slightly above 3% to 3.4% based on two main factors.
同時,重型車輛銷售、資本貨物、進口和貿易條件等核心指標繼續以兩位數的速度成長。基於兩個主要因素,我們將年底 GDP 成長預測從略高於 3% 上調至 3.4%。
First, export prices for gold, copper and silver, which together account for half of Peru's local exports have risen significantly faster than expected, driving terms of trade to record highs. Second, the pension fund withdrawal is expected to boost private spending and support household consumption. We expect economic activity to remain strong throughout the coming year with GDP growth projected in the 3% to 3.5% range despite pending elections in 2026.
首先,佔秘魯國內出口一半的黃金、銅和白銀的出口價格上漲速度遠超預期,導致貿易條件達到歷史新高。其次,退休基金的提取預計將提振私人支出並支持家庭消費。我們預計,儘管2026年將舉行大選,但未來一年經濟活動仍將保持強勁,GDP成長率預計在3%至3.5%之間。
Next slide, please. The Federal reserve lowered its policy rate for the second consecutive meeting in response to signs of a cooling labor market. Fed futures have moved another probability of one additional rate cut in December is evenly the split.
請看下一張投影片。受勞動市場降溫跡象的影響,聯準會連續第二次下調政策利率。聯準會期貨價格再次波動,12 月再次降息的可能性目前呈現五、五開的局面。
In Peru, annual inflation has remained below 2% for 11 consecutive months which constitutes one of the lowest prints for both advanced and emerging economies. Following the 25 basis points rate cut in September, which brought the policy rate up to 4.25%, the Central Bank is close to what it considers the mutual rate.
在秘魯,年通膨率已連續 11 個月維持在 2% 以下,這是已開發經濟體和新興經濟體中最低的通膨率之一。繼9月降息25個基點,將政策利率上調至4.25%之後,央行已接近其認為的共同利率。
In Colombia, inflation recently accelerated to 5.2% year-over-year in September, which remains above the upper bound of the target range of 4%. Inflation concerns coupled with fiscal challenges have led the Central Bank to keep its polish rate stable at 9.25% during the last three meetings.
在哥倫比亞,9 月通膨率年增至 5.2%,仍高於 4% 的目標區間上限。通膨擔憂加上財政挑戰,導致波蘭央行在過去三次會議上將波蘭利率維持在 9.25% 不變。
In Chile, the Central Bank heads policy rate steady at 4.75% during its most recent meeting. Inflation slowed to 3.4% year-over-year in October, the lowest rate in more than a year, boosting expectations for a December rate cap. This Sunday, Chile will hold its general election and expectations for a more pro-market administration has seen a [superiority] for future growth.
在智利,中央銀行在最近一次會議上將政策利率維持在 4.75% 不變。10月份通膨率年減至3.4%,為一年多以來的最低水平,提振了市場對12月份利率上限的預期。本週日,智利將舉行大選,人們期望選出一個更親市場的政府,認為這將有利於未來的成長。
Next slide, please. BCP maintained a solid ROE of 25.6%, which reflects resilient margins, diversified revenue streams and low cost of risk. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, total loans measured in quarter-end balances rose 1.7%.
請看下一張投影片。BCP 維持了 25.6% 的穩健 ROE,這反映了其穩健的利潤率、多元化的收入來源和較低的風險成本。按季度環比計算,以季度末餘額衡量的貸款總額增加了 1.7%。
In FX-neutral terms, growth reached 2.4%, mainly driven by retail banking segments, which grew 3% while the wholesale banking portfolio increased 1.8%. NIM stood at 6.1%, increasing 10 basis points on the tale of a shift in the asset mix.
以匯率中立計算,成長達 2.4%,主要由零售銀行業務推動,成長 3%,批發銀行業務成長 1.8%。淨利差為 6.1%,由於資產組合變化,上升了 10 個基點。
Other core income grew 1.6% fueled by fee income from Yape. NPL volumes fell 0.9%. In Retail Banking, NPL volumes declined led by individuals and as a close second by SMEs. Provisions rose 9.6%, reflecting both the recurring dynamics of retail banking and specific impact within Wholesale Banking.
受 Yape 手續費收入的推動,其他核心收入成長了 1.6%。不良貸款量下降0.9%。在零售銀行業務中,不良貸款量下降,其中個人客戶下降幅度最大,中小企業緊隨其後。撥備成長 9.6%,既反映了零售銀行業務的常態化發展,也反映了批發銀行業務所受到的具體影響。
In Retail Banking, provisions for individuals remained stable, while provisions for SMEs rose slightly due to a base effect stemming from higher reversals last quarter linked to increased debt repayments in SME business.
在零售銀行業務方面,個人貸款撥備保持穩定,而中小企業貸款撥備略有上升,這是由於上季度中小企業債務償還增加導致撥備逆轉額較高,從而產生了基數效應。
In Wholesale Banking, there was a relevant increase in the credit risk of one corporate client, which is currently paying up to date. The cost of risk edged up to 1.3%, driven by the dynamics of provisions and loan growth, which were supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions in Peru. In this context, BCP's risk-adjusted NIM stood at 5.2%. From a year-over-year perspective, I would like to highlight the following dynamics.
在批發銀行業務方面,一家企業客戶的信用風險增加,但該客戶目前按時還款。受撥備和貸款成長動態的影響,風險成本小幅上升至 1.3%,而秘魯有利的宏觀經濟條件則支撐了這一動態。在此背景下,BCP 的風險調整後淨利差為 5.2%。從同比角度來看,我想重點強調以下幾個面向。
Loan balances grew 4.6%. However, loan growth in FX-neutral terms reached 7% led primarily by retail segments and closely followed by wholesale loans. Retail segments and consumer loans, in particular, were favored by positive economic conditions, while lower interest rates boosted growth in mortgages.
貸款餘額增加了4.6%。然而,以匯率中立計算,貸款成長率達 7%,主要由零售貸款帶動,批發貸款緊隨其後。零售業和消費貸款尤其受益於良好的經濟環境,而較低的利率則促進了抵押貸款的成長。
In Wholesale Banking, middle market loans were up this quarter, bolstered by short-term lending to agri businesses. NPLs contracted across all BCP segments, primarily in SMEs and individuals. In individuals, the reduction in NPLs was attributable to repayments, which were fueled by higher liquidity and through improvements in loan origination and debt collection management.
在批發銀行業務方面,本季中端市場貸款有所成長,這主要得益於農業企業的短期貸款。不良貸款涵蓋所有業務連續性計劃 (BCP) 領域,主要涉及中小企業和個人。在個人方面,不良貸款的減少歸因於還款,而還款則得益於流動性的提高以及貸款發放和債務催收管理的改進。
NIM decreased 6 basis points, writing a downward trend in the yield on interest-earning assets and partially offset by a lower funding cost, both in line with market rate trends. The cost of risk fell across retail banking segments, driven by improvements in payment performance after low-risk vintages increased their share of total loans, supported by a strengthening economic backlog.
淨利差下降 6 個基點,導致生息資產收益率呈下降趨勢,但部分被較低的融資成本所抵消,這兩項指標均與市場利率趨勢一致。受低風險貸款在總貸款中所佔比例增加以及經濟積壓訂單增加的推動,零售銀行各部門的風險成本下降,支付績效得到改善。
Other core income rose 10.8%, fueled primarily by fee income which reflected solid results in Yape and BCP. Gains on FX transactions, which grew alongside an uptick in transactional activity in retail segments were a secondary driver of growth in other core income. The ratio for other core income to assets maintained its upward trend, which is the result of our initiatives to diversify BCP's income streams.
其他核心收入成長了 10.8%,主要得益於手續費收入,這反映了 Yape 和 BCP 的穩健表現。外匯交易收益與零售領域交易活動的增加同步成長,成為其他核心收入成長的次要驅動因素。其他核心收入與資產的比率保持上升趨勢,這是我們為使 BCP 的收入來源多元化而採取的舉措的結果。
It is worth noting that this evolution reflects our investments in technological capabilities to bolster our transactional platform. The efficiency ratio stood at 38.7% at the end of the third quarter. Growth in operating expenses was spurred by provisions for variable compensation and hiring of digital talent for strategic projects.
值得注意的是,這項發展體現了我們對技術能力的投資,以加強我們的交易平台。第三季末,效率比率為38.7%。營運費用的成長是由於撥付可變薪酬和為策略項目招募數位人才所致。
Next slide, please. Yape continues to generate value across the Credicorp ecosystem with 15.5 million monthly active users, which is the equivalent of 82% of the economic Yape population. We aim to expand this user base to 18 million by 2028.
請看下一張投影片。Yape 繼續為 Credicorp 生態系統創造價值,擁有 1,550 萬月活躍用戶,相當於 Yape 經濟人口的 82%。我們的目標是到 2028 年將用戶群擴大到 1,800 萬。
Current users conduct an average of 58.5 transactions per month. Only 12% of this transaction generated revenue, indicating considerable room for further monetization. From a financial standpoint, revenue per monthly active user reached [7.4] while expenses per mile stood at [5], reflecting continued improvement in profitability and operational scalability. Although marketing campaigns aimed at driving feature adoption led to higher expenses in the quarter, no material shift in cost structure were observed.
當前用戶平均每月進行 58.5 筆交易。該交易中只有 12% 產生了收入,這意味著還有很大的盈利空間。從財務角度來看,每月活躍用戶收入達到 [7.4],而每英里支出為 [5],這反映出獲利能力和營運可擴展性的持續改善。儘管旨在推動功能普及的行銷活動導致本季支出增加,但成本結構並未發生實質變化。
In the last quarter, revenue grew almost 2 times year-over-year. Looking ahead, we expect revenues to triple by 2028, primarily driven by higher revenue per mile as users adopt more monetizable features. Payments remain the dominant contributor accounting for 53% of Yap's revenue fueled by strong growth in QR, bill payments and checkout functionalities. Lending continues to gain momentum, now accounting for 20% of Yap's revenue. To date, over 3 million clients have received disbursements, 1 million of which constituted first-ever formal loans.
上一季度,營收年增近2倍。展望未來,我們預計到 2028 年營收將成長兩倍,主要原因是隨著用戶採用更多可獲利的功能,每英里的收入將會增加。支付業務仍然是 Yap 的主要收入來源,佔其收入的 53%,這主要得益於二維碼支付、帳單支付和結帳功能的強勁增長。貸款業務持續成長,目前已佔Yap營收的20%。迄今為止,已有超過 300 萬名客戶獲得了貸款,其中 100 萬筆是首次正式貸款。
Looking ahead, we aim to expand our disbursed client base to 8 million by 2028 as we deepen our understanding of user payment behavior and refine our risk management capabilities. In e-commerce, [GMV] continues to grow, driven by Yape Promos and gaming, establishing a third monetization pillar.
展望未來,我們計劃在 2028 年將已發放貸款的客戶群擴大到 800 萬,同時加深對用戶支付行為的了解,並完善我們的風險管理能力。在電子商務領域,在 Yape Promos 和遊戲的推動下,[GMV] 持續成長,建立了第三個貨幣化支柱。
In aggregate, Yape contributed 6.6% of Credicorp's risk-adjusted revenue this quarter, advancing its mission to deepen financial inclusion, scale monetization and strengthen its strategic growth as the growth engine of Credicorp's digital ecosystem.
本季度,Yape 為 Credicorp 貢獻了 6.6% 的風險調整後收入,推進了其深化普惠金融、擴大貨幣化規模並加強其戰略增長的使命,成為 Credicorp 數位生態系統的成長引擎。
Next slide, please. Ongoing economic recovery continued to exert a positive impact on Peru's micro finance sector with Mibanco's performing sector peers. In this context, Mibanco's profitability kept rising and stood at 18.8% this quarter, supported by a rebound in loan disbursements in recent quarters and strengthened credit risk management. I would like to highlight key quarter-over-quarter dynamics.
請看下一張投影片。持續的經濟復甦持續對秘魯的小額信貸產業產生正面影響,Mibanco 的同業也表現出色。在此背景下,由於近幾季貸款發放量的反彈和信貸風險管理的加強,Mibanco 的獲利能力持續上升,本季達到 18.8%。我想重點介紹季度環比的關鍵動態。
Loans grew 2.4% in quarter end balances, writing an upswing in loan disbursements, which hit an all-time high in September. The NPL ratio fell for the fifth consecutive quarter to stand at 5.7%. NIM picked up 15%, boosted by a shift in the mix towards small ticket higher yield loans.
季度末貸款餘額增加了 2.4%,貸款發放量出現上升趨勢,並在 9 月創下歷史新高。不良貸款率連續第五個季度下降,目前為5.7%。淨利差上升了 15%,這主要得益於貸款組合轉變為小額高收益的貸款。
In parallel, the cost of risk fell 7 basis points to stand at 5.2% while risk-adjusted NIM reached a 4-year high of 11%. From a year-over-year perspective, loans measured in quarter end balances grew 8%. Our active pricing management, coupled with the decrease in cost of funding, helped NIM increase. The cost of risk fell 101 basis points as lower risk vintages continue to gain traction and now account for 78% of total loans. Operating expenses remained under control and efficiency stood at 51.4%.
同時,風險成本下降了 7 個基點,達到 5.2%,而風險調整後的淨利差達到了 4 年來的最高點 11%。從年比來看,以季度末餘額衡量的貸款增加了 8%。我們積極的定價管理,加上融資成本的降低,幫助淨利差 (NIM) 提高了。由於低風險貸款繼續獲得市場認可,風險成本下降了 101 個基點,目前已佔貸款總額的 78%。營運費用得到控制,效率達 51.4%。
In this context, Mibanco's year-to-date contribution to ROE was 16%, transitioning towards our target for medium-term ROE in the low 20s. Mibanco Colombia's results continue to tick up, reflecting double-digit year-over-year loan growth, control risk management and optimized efficiency, supported by a more favorable economic environment for the micro finance sector. As a result, profitability stood at 12.3% at quarter end.
在此背景下,Mibanco 今年迄今對 ROE 的貢獻為 16%,正朝著我們中期 ROE 目標(20% 左右)邁進。哥倫比亞米班科銀行的業績持續攀升,反映了兩位數的同比貸款成長、有效的風險管理和優化的效率,這得益於小額信貸產業更有利的經濟環境。因此,季度末獲利能力為 12.3%。
Next slide, please. At Grupo Pacifico, insurance underwriting results remained strong this quarter, supported by solid operational dynamics in both the P&C and Life businesses with ROE standing at 20.9%. On a quarterly basis, net income remained relatively stable. Insurance underwriting results rose 7% on the back of life business, which reported a decrease in insurance service expenses but was primarily driven by a drop in claims.
請看下一張投影片。在太平洋集團,本季保險承保業績依然強勁,這得益於財產險和人壽保險業務穩健的營運動態,淨資產收益率達到 20.9%。按季度來看,淨收入保持相對穩定。保險承保績效成長 7%,主要得益於人壽業務的成長。人壽業務的保險服務支出有所下降,但這主要是由於索賠減少所致。
The [Yape's] business also posted an improvement in its underwriting results, albeit to a lesser extent. These gains were partially offset by a decline in P&C underwriting performance impacted by higher claims. Growth in underwriting results was offset by a drop in net interest income associated with life insurance contracts.
Yape 的核保績效也有所改善,儘管改善幅度較小。這些收益部分被財產險承保業績下滑所抵消,而財產險承保業績下滑是由於索賠額增加所致。承保業績的成長被與人壽保險合約相關的淨利息收入的下降所抵銷。
On a year-over-year basis, net income rose 23%, primarily on the back of Pacifico's full consolidation of the Corporate health insurance and medical services operations. Excluding the consolidation effect, net income rose 10%. Insurance underwriting results rose for the Life business, driven mainly by a decrease in claims on disability and survivorship and credit life lines.
與去年同期相比,淨收入成長了 23%,這主要得益於 Pacifico 對企業健康保險和醫療服務業務的全面整合。剔除合併效應,淨利成長10%。壽險業務承保業績上升,主要得益於殘障和遺屬保險以及信用人壽保險索賠的減少。
And for the P&C business, which reported growth in direct premiums in the cars and medical assistance lines. These impacts were partially offset by higher operating expenses and by an increase in the net loss on securities, which was impacted by credit downgrades on a couple of assets in the investment portfolio.
在財產險和意外險業務方面,汽車保險和醫療援助保險的直接保費均有所增長。這些影響部分被更高的營運費用和證券淨虧損的增加所抵消,而證券淨虧損的增加又受到投資組合中幾項資產信用評級下調的影響。
Next slide, please. Profitability, our Investment Management and advisory business increased this quarter with ROE standing at 17.4%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, core income-generating businesses delivered strong results this quarter, reflecting improved capital markets activity particularly in the trading unit and continued growth in Wealth Management and Asset Management with AUM in US dollars, up 6% and 14%, respectively.
請看下一張投影片。本季度,我們的投資管理和諮詢業務獲利能力有所提升,淨資產收益率達到 17.4%。本季核心創收業務環比表現強勁,反映出資本市場活動(尤其是交易部門)的改善,以及財富管理和資產管理業務的持續成長(以美元計價的資產管理規模分別成長 6% 和 14%)。
These dynamics were partially offset by higher operating expenses. As a result, net income increased 10%. On a year-over-year basis, net income increased by 5%, mainly due to favorable performance of the trading unit in our Capital Markets business and stronger treasury performance. These dynamics were partially offset by higher operating expenses.
這些利多因素被更高的營運成本部分抵銷。因此,淨收入成長了10%。與去年同期相比,淨收入成長了 5%,主要得益於資本市場業務交易部門的良好表現和資金管理部門的強勁業績。這些利多因素被更高的營運成本部分抵銷。
Next slide, please. Now I would like to review Credicorp's consolidated evolution regarding quarter-over-quarter dynamics. Loan growth was fueled by retail segments, leading to a higher yield interest earning asset mix.
請看下一張投影片。現在我想回顧一下 Credicorp 季度季比的綜合發展。零售貸款業務推動了貸款成長,從而提高了利息收入型資產的收益率。
As a result, the yield on interest-earning assets rose 13 basis points. On the liability side, low-cost deposits raised an increase in their share of total funding and bond maturities triggered a decrease in interest expenses.
因此,生息資產收益率上升了 13 個基點。在負債方面,低成本存款增加了其在總資金中所佔的份額,債券到期導致利息支出減少。
These favorable dynamics were partially offset by an increase in the balance of time deposits at BCP. As a result, funding cost decreased 1 basis point. On a year-over-year basis, the positive impact of a higher yield interest earning asset mix was offset by the negative impact of lower market rates.
BCP定期存款餘額的增加部分抵消了這些有利的動態。因此,融資成本下降了 1 個基點。與去年同期相比,收益率較高的生息資產組合帶來的正面影響被市場利率下降帶來的負面影響所抵消。
As such, the yield on interest-earning assets fell 9 basis points. On the liability side, interest rate dynamics complemented by our competitive advantage in local funding, led the funding cost to decline 25 basis points. In this context, NIM stood at 6.6%, up 9 basis points. Going forward, growth in retail lending, powered by our strengthened risk management capabilities should sustain NIM's growth. Next slide, please.
因此,生息資產收益率下降了9個基點。在負債方面,利率動態變化加上我們在本地融資方面的競爭優勢,使得融資成本下降了 25 個基點。在此背景下,淨利差為 6.6%,上升 9 個基點。展望未來,在風險管理能力增強的推動下,零售貸款業務的成長應能維持NIM的成長。請看下一張投影片。
Moving on to loan portfolio quality. Asset quality showed slight further improvement this quarter as NPL volumes continue to contract across segments, falling to levels below those reported prior to the 2023 recession.
接下來分析貸款組合品質。本季資產品質略有進一步改善,各領域的不良貸款量持續萎縮,降至低於 2023 年經濟衰退前的水準。
Amidst ongoing economic recovery, provisions have dropped over the past 12 months due to an improvement in payment performance and successful risk management measures at both BCP and Mibanco. The positive impact of this improvement exceeded expectations, which kept provisioning levels low once again this quarter. In this context, the NPL coverage ratio rose and stood at 110.1%.
隨著經濟持續復甦,由於支付績效改善以及 BCP 和 Mibanco 的風險管理措施取得成功,過去 12 個月的撥備有所下降。這項改善帶來的正面影響超出了預期,使得本季撥備水準再次保持在較低水準。在此背景下,不良貸款覆蓋率上升至 110.1%。
Going forward, we will continue to accelerate retail origination while managing risks. In coming quarters, asset quality may improve from the back of a rising liquidity after the expansion fund withdrawal is rolled out from November 2025 to February 2026.
展望未來,我們將持續加速零售貸款發放速度,同時管控風險。在接下來的幾個季度裡,隨著擴張基金從 2025 年 11 月到 2026 年 2 月逐步撤出,流動性增加,資產品質可能會有所改善。
Following that, we expect loan growth to recover space and the cost of risk to rise but remain within our appetite. Next slide, please. Core income expanded 5.1% year-over-year, underscoring our ability to deliver consistent growth.
此後,我們預計貸款成長將恢復空間,風險成本將上升,但仍在我們的承受範圍內。請看下一張投影片。核心營收年增 5.1%,凸顯了我們實現持續成長的能力。
Net interest income rose 2.7%, supported by a stronger funding mix and a higher yield loan portfolio. This help lead NIM to 6.6%, reinforcing the resilience of our margin. Other core income grew 11.9% driven by a key momentum from Yape and BCP and a 23.4% increase in FX gains on the back of higher volumes.
淨利息收入成長 2.7%,這得益於更穩健的融資結構和更高收益率的貸款組合。這有助於將淨利差提高到 6.6%,增強了我們利潤率的韌性。其他核心收入成長了 11.9%,主要得益於 Yape 和 BCP 的強勁成長勢頭,以及外匯收益因交易量增加而成長了 23.4%。
As highlighted during our Investor Day, other core income is expected to play a growing role in Credicorp's strategy to diversify revenue sources. This includes scaling digital monetization to Yape, expanding bancassurance, accelerating growth in remittances and deepening transactional engagements across traditional platforms.
正如我們在投資者日上所強調的那樣,其他核心收入預計將在 Credicorp 實現收入來源多元化的策略中發揮越來越重要的作用。這包括將數位貨幣化擴展到 Yape,擴大銀行保險業務,加速匯款成長,以及深化傳統平台上的交易互動。
Risk-adjusted NIM rose 50 basis points year-over-year to stand at a record high of 5.5%. This evolution reflects our risk management is becoming a competitive edge that enables expansion into new market The efficiency ratio for the first nine months of the year stood within guidance at 45.7%.
經風險調整後的淨利差較去年同期上升 50 個基點,達到創紀錄的 5.5%。這一演變反映出我們的風險管理正在成為一種競爭優勢,使我們能夠拓展到新市場。今年前九個月的效率比率為 45.7%,符合預期。
Operating expenses grew 12.8%, fueled primarily by core businesses at BCP and by investments in our innovation portfolio. Growth in core expenses at BCP was driven mainly by provisions for variable compensation and higher IT expenses. Expenses for our innovation portfolio rose 16.1% led by Yape, Tempo and Culqi which represented 83% of disruptive expenses in the first nine months of this year.
營運支出成長了 12.8%,主要原因是 BCP 的核心業務成長以及對創新組合的投資。BCP核心支出成長主要受可變薪酬準備金和更高的IT支出所推動。我們的創新組合支出成長了 16.1%,其中 Yape、Tempo 和 Culqi 的支出佔今年前九個月顛覆性支出的 83%。
Next slide, please. ROE for the first nine months was 20.1%, supported by solid business performance and bolstered by the extraordinary gain from the [america] transaction in the first quarter of the year. If we adjust for this transaction, ROE is 19.3% for the first nine months.
請看下一張投影片。前九個月的淨資產收益率為 20.1%,這得益於穩健的業務表現,以及第一季[美國]交易帶來的非凡收益。如果將這筆交易進行調整,前九個月的淨資產收益率為 19.3%。
On an accumulated basis, net income reached a record high, even when excluding the gains from america transaction. We achieved this by leveraging low cost of funding, a reduction in the cost of risk and an increase in lending. We are committed to generating diversified and robust revenue stream to ramp up revenues from other core income and transition toward a stronger, more resilient business [borrow].
即使不計入美國交易的收益,累計淨收入也創下歷史新高。我們透過利用低成本融資、降低風險成本和增加貸款來實現這一目標。我們致力於創造多元化且穩健的收入來源,以提升其他核心收入,並向更強大、更具韌性的業務轉型。[借]。
Now I'll move on to our guidance. Next slide, please. As previously stated, we maintained our GDP guidance as we expect GDP to grow 3.4% this year. We expect our loan book to grow around 6.5% year-over-year measured in end-of-period balances. These figures do not consider the impact of the asset revaluation at BCP Bolivia, but do include the evaluation of the US dollar against the Peruvian Sole.
接下來我將介紹我們的指導原則。請看下一張投影片。如同先前所述,我們維持了對GDP的預期,預計今年GDP將成長3.4%。我們預計,以期末餘額計算,我們的貸款組合將年增約 6.5%。這些數字沒有考慮 BCP Bolivia 的資產重估的影響,但確實包括了美元兌秘魯索爾的評估。
Amid a more dynamic economic backdrop and strengthened origination levels in the first nine months of the year, we expect balanced growth to continue accelerating in the last quarter, driven primarily by retail banking at BCP and by Mibanco.
在更活躍的經濟環境和今年前九個月強勁的貸款發放水準下,我們預計在最後一個季度,均衡成長將繼續加速,這主要得益於 BCP 的零售銀行業務和 Mibanco 的業務成長。
The acceleration anticipated for loan growth and the shift in the mix towards retail should support NIM as interest rates trend downward. Accordingly, we expect NIM to stand within our guidance range. While an increase in the cost of risk is anticipated in the final quarter, driven by a stronger focus on lending to higher-yielding segments, we expect it to close at the lower end of the guidance range.
預計貸款成長加速以及貸款結構向零售業的轉變,應能支撐淨利差,因為利率呈下降趨勢。因此,我們預期淨利差將保持在我們預期的範圍內。儘管預計第四季度風險成本將有所上升,原因是更加重視向高收益領域放貸,但我們預計最終結果將處於預期範圍的下限。
Accordingly, we expect the risk-adjusted NIM to move closer to the upper end of the guidance. On the efficiency front, we expect to be within our guidance range. Regarding fee income and insurance underwriting results, we expect growth to stand at low double digits this year, supported by an acceleration in economic activity and ongoing diversification of our income sources.
因此,我們預期經風險調整後的淨利差將更接近指導值的上限。在效率方面,我們預計將在預期範圍內。關於手續費收入和保險承保業績,我們預計今年將實現兩位數低成長,這得益於經濟活動的加速和收入來源的持續多元化。
As a result, we maintain our full year ROE guidance at around 19%. This year reflects both solid core performance and sustained discipline on the risk front. While local political uncertainties remain, we believe the fundamentals are in place to support this level of profitability. With these comments, I would like to open the Q&A session.
因此,我們維持全年淨資產收益率預期在 19% 左右。今年既體現了穩健的核心業績,也反映了在風險管理方面持續的自律。儘管當地政治情勢仍存在不確定性,但我們相信基本面已經到位,足以支撐目前的獲利水準。基於以上幾點,我想開啟問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.
埃內斯托·加比隆多,美國銀行。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Thank you. Hi, good morning. Gianfranco, Alejandro, Cesar, Francesca and Milagros. good moring to all your team. Happy Fridya. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. My question will be related to asset quality. So NPLs and cost of risk are behaving much better than expected this year is well below your guidance provided.
謝謝。您好,早安。Gianfranco、Alejandro、Cesar、Francesca 和 Milagros,祝福你們團隊所有成員早安。星期五快樂。感謝您給我提問的機會。我的問題與資產品質有關。因此,今年的不良貸款和風險成本表現遠好於預期,遠低於您提供的指導。
You mentioned you're expecting cost of risk to be at the low end of the guidance, it should be around 2%. So my question is, if it's not too conservative this guidance because cost to risk will have to be above 2% in the last quarter. So I just wanted to hear your thoughts on that due to 2026, that probably you will accelerate the growth in the high-yield segment. How should we think about the cost of risk? Should we start about 2% or similar guidance that you have provided this year? Thank you.
您提到您預計風險成本將處於指導值的低端,並且應該在 2% 左右。所以我的問題是,如果這個指導意見不是太保守的話,因為最後一個季度的風險成本率必須高於 2%。所以我想聽聽你對2026年的看法,你可能會加快高收益領域的成長。我們該如何看待風險成本?我們是否應該從您今年提供的 2% 左右或類似的指導方針開始?謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Ernesto. This is Gianfranco, allow Cesar to get into the details.
早安,埃內斯托。這是吉安弗蘭科,讓塞薩爾來詳細介紹一下。
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Hi, Ernesto. So thank you for the question. I would say that, in fact, the results are better than we initially expected at the beginning of the year is a combination of better results in the measures taking in the risk management front, but also a more dynamic economic backdrop.
你好,埃內斯托。謝謝你的提問。事實上,我認為結果比我們年初的預期要好,這既得益於風險管理方面的措施改進,也得益於更具活力的經濟環境。
As we were mentioned, and Alejandro has been highlighted, the economy is growing faster, particularly if you consider consumer spending and this is positive for the quality of the portfolio. And at the end of the year, another factor is that we are going to have liquidity events, the ASP withdraws that are going to impact negatively, we'll say, loan growth but positive credit quality. So this is going to contribute to the numbers that we are laying out.
正如我們之前提到的,Alejandro 也受到了重點關注,經濟成長速度加快,特別是考慮到消費支出,這對投資組合的品質來說是積極的。年底,另一個因素是我們將面臨流動性事件,ASP 的撤資將對貸款成長產生負面影響,但對信貸品質有正面影響。所以這將有助於我們統計出這些數據。
And actually, Alejandro mentioned in the guideline that the cost of risk is going to be around the lower end. And the lower end is 1.8% that's the first part of the question. In the second part, what we expect for the next year is to increase gradually as we have mentioned previously, the shift in the composition of the portfolio. But I will again emphasize that the positive thing is that we expect to do that, increasing the NIM. And so the risk-adjusted NIM should also increase in absolute trends in relation to the current levels.
事實上,Alejandro 在指南中提到,風險成本將處於較低水準。下限是 1.8%,這是問題的第一部分。第二部分,正如我們之前提到的,我們預計明年投資組合的組成將逐步改變。但我再次強調,正面的一面是我們期望做到這一點,提高淨利潤率。因此,經風險調整後的淨利差也應相對於當前水準呈現絕對成長趨勢。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Excellent. Thank you very much. And just for a second question is on OpEx growth. So we noticed this quarter came at a double-digit. As you mentioned, the idea is to have revenue growth outpacing OpEx growth over the next years. But how should we think about OpEx growth next year? I don't know if you can break it down your expectation of OpEx growth, how much will be related to the disruptive initiatives like Yape, Tempo and how much to the ongoing business?
出色的。非常感謝。第二個問題是關於營運支出成長的。我們注意到本季實現了兩位數的成長。正如您所提到的,我們的目標是在未來幾年內實現收入成長超過營運支出成長。但我們該如何看待明年的營運支出成長呢?我不知道您能否詳細說明您對營運支出成長的預期,其中有多少與 Yape、Tempo 等顛覆性舉措有關,又有多少與持續經營的業務有關?
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Sure. Yes. So we have seen important operating expenses growth this quarter, but it's inside of our guidance, as we've mentioned. So it's been planned as we are revamping capabilities, both in the core business and the innovation part. We expect to continue to invest in the future. But in the core business, probably at a lower speed than what we've seen in this year because, again, we've done some particular projects during this year. So it should come a little bit lower.
當然。是的。因此,本季度我們看到營運費用大幅成長,但正如我們之前提到的,這仍在我們的預期範圍內。因此,這是我們在核心業務和創新方面進行能力改造時就制定的計劃。我們預計未來將繼續投資。但就核心業務而言,成長速度可能會比今年以來的成長速度慢一些,因為我們今年也做了一些特殊的專案。所以它應該會再低一點。
And on the innovation side, we'll probably remain in similar numbers that will allow us to generate more income and hence, go to our midterm target that Gianfranco mentioned of 42% in the next thre years -- around three years. So you should see a little bit of a lower growth of expenses in the core business and similar growth in the innovation part.
在創新方面,我們可能會保持類似的規模,這將使我們能夠創造更多收入,從而實現 Gianfranco 提到的未來三年內達到 42% 的中期目標——大約三年時間。因此,核心業務的支出成長應該會略有放緩,而創新部分的成長則與之類似。
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Ernesto Gabilondo - Analyst
Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.
好的,完美。非常感謝。
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Brian Flores, Citi.
Brian Flores,花旗銀行。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
Hey, hi, team. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have a question related to growth, right? Because your long-term guidance of ROE is 19.5%. And as you mentioned, you're ramping up. The economy is going well. Just wanted to see what should we think about the first quarter of the year given the political uncertainty, we have elections in April.
嘿,大家好。早安.謝謝您給我提問的機會。我有一個關於成長的問題,對吧?因為你們的長期 ROE 指引值為 19.5%。正如你所說,你們正在加緊推進。經濟形勢良好。鑑於目前政治局勢不明朗,以及四月即將舉行的選舉,我想了解我們應該如何看待今年第一季。
So just wondering if we might see some deceleration in the first quarter as mostly corporates tend to be a bit more cautious. And as you mentioned, there are some impacts from withdrawals probably carrying into January, February.
所以我想知道第一季是否會出現一些成長放緩的情況,因為大多數企業往往會更加謹慎。正如您所提到的,提款的影響可能會持續到一月和二月。
So if you think maybe we could see ROE levels similar to this year, which obviously are very positive? Or do you think we are, I would say, converging into this 19.5 long term in a sooner way? And then I'll ask my second question.
所以,如果你認為我們可能會看到與今年類似的淨資產收益率水平(這顯然是非常積極的)?或者你認為,從長遠來看,我們正在更快地趨向於19.5這個目標?然後我會問我的第二個問題。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Hi, Brian, this is Gianfranco. I'll answer the uncertainty question regarding elections next year. And maybe based on data, if you do a back testing on what has happened in the last four or five elections, whatever, there's always -- so the previous year, there's basically no reduction in terms of growth, long-term growth or investment and so on. However, there is a slowdown over the last four elections, and there's a slowdown in the first quarter of the year of the election.
當然。你好,布萊恩,我是吉安法蘭科。我會回答有關明年選舉的不確定性問題。或許根據數據,如果你對過去四、五次選舉的情況進行回溯測試,總是會發現——比如前一年,增長、長期增長或投資等方面基本上沒有減少。然而,過去四次選舉的進程有所放緩,而且在選舉年份的第一季也出現了放緩的趨勢。
So that's in line to what you're implying in your question. Having said that, it's a tricky question because of what Cesar and Alejandro mentioned before, the pace of growth in terms of GDP, consumer -- consumption in general, trade balances and so on.
所以這和你問題中暗示的意思一致。話雖如此,但這是一個棘手的問題,因為正如 Cesar 和 Alejandro 之前提到的,GDP 的成長速度、消費者——整體消費、貿易平衡等等。
Some of those indicators are at record levels for the last, I don't know, 10 years -- actually, trade balances is at record levels over the last 7 -- last year. So it's tricky. So if you force me to give you an answer, my personal opinion is that next year, the first quarter of next year is not going to be as low as what has happened in previous elections. Regarding ROE for the upcoming years, we will provide guidance next year. Next call actually rather than nowadays -- than two days, sorry.
有些指標在過去十年中達到了創紀錄的水平——實際上,貿易餘額在過去七年中達到了創紀錄的水平——去年更是如此。所以這很棘手。所以如果你非要我給答案,我個人認為明年第一季的選舉結果不會像以往選舉那麼低。關於未來幾年的淨資產收益率(ROE),我們將在明年提供指導。下次通話時間應該比現在更長——而不是兩天后,抱歉。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
I was just going to complement in a couple of comments. Again, Gianfranco has mentioned the economy is finishing the year very strongly -- a couple of points, private investment in the last quarter, the third quarter of the year grew 10.4%. That's the highest since 2013. We already mentioned private consumption. So we are entering the year with a very positive situation.
我本來只是想寫幾則評論表示讚揚。吉安弗蘭科再次提到,經濟在今年末表現非常強勁——第三季私人投資成長了10.4%,增幅達幾個百分點。這是自2013年以來的最高值。我們前面已經提到了私人消費。因此,我們以非常積極的情況進入了新的一年。
And also that's -- basically, there's going to be some election-related effects. But again, it's interesting to see which one is waiting more. So we're not expecting a big change in the first quarter. Having said that, there is also the withdrawal from the pension plan.
而且,基本上,選舉也會產生一些影響。但話說回來,看看究竟是誰在等待更久,還挺有趣的。因此,我們預計第一季不會有太大變化。話雖如此,也有退出退休金計畫的可能性。
What we expect is for it to have an effect of around 0.5% in growth -- in less growth but more related to the extra cash in the hands of our consumers and the prepayments in loans based on that. But again, in this economic backdrop, we expect next year to -- I mean, we'll give guidance in the next call, but we expect next year to be a strong year in growth for Credicorp.
我們預計這將對經濟成長產生約 0.5% 的影響——增長幅度較小,但更多地與消費者手中的額外現金以及基於此的貸款提前還款有關。但同樣,在當前的經濟背景下,我們預計明年——我的意思是,我們將在下次電話會議上給予指導,但我們預計明年將是 Credicorp 強勁成長的一年。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
Perfect. Just to clarify, that 0.5% impact is full year? Or is it year-over-year in the first quarter?
完美的。請確認一下,這0.5%的影響是指全年的影響嗎?或者說是第一季同比數據?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
It is full year, but it's going to be probably very much in the first quarter because the withdrawal starts in November and finished in February. So it is -- the full year effect is 0.5 percentage point, but again, probably very concentrated in the first part of the year.
雖然是全年,但很可能主要集中在第一季度,因為提款從 11 月開始,到 2 月結束。確實如此——全年的影響是 0.5 個百分點,但同樣,可能非常集中在年初。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
No. Okay. Perfect. And then just to confirm, the -- I mean, the base line that we should think about in terms of growth is based on what I understand, similar to this level of 2025, right? The bits in the guidance?
不。好的。完美的。然後,為了確認一下,我的意思是,我們應該考慮的成長基準線,據我了解,類似於 2025 年的水平,對吧?指南中的那些部分?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Well, we'll give guidance again in the next call, but the way I would put it is, if you think of 2025, the beginning -- the first half of 2025 growth wasn't very strong. It's accelerated in the last quarter. So I would say that there's probably an opportunity to even better grow when you consider a full year in 2026.
我們會在下次電話會議上再次給予指導意見,但我想說的是,如果你展望 2025 年,那麼 2025 年上半年的成長並不強勁。上個季度增速加快。所以我認為,如果把時間定在 2026 年整整一年,那麼或許還有更大的發展機會。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
No, perfect. I really appreciate the clarification because as Gianfranco was saying, this is indeed a tricky question, and it has a lot of moving parts. So I really appreciate -- if I can just very quickly on my second question, Yape's contribution nearly close to 7%. Just wondering if we can envision double-digit contribution by 2026?
不,完美。我非常感謝您的澄清,因為正如 Gianfranco 所說,這確實是一個棘手的問題,涉及很多方面。所以,我非常感謝——如果我可以快速回答我的第二個問題,Yape 的貢獻接近 7%。我想知道我們能否預期 2026 年達到兩位數的貢獻?
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Definitely.
確實。
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
Yes, very probably.
是的,很有可能。
Brian Flores - Analyst
Brian Flores - Analyst
Perfect. Thank you. Thank you, team.
完美的。謝謝。謝謝團隊。
Operator
Operator
Renato Meloni, Anonymous Research.
雷納托·梅洛尼,匿名研究。
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Hi, everyone. Congrats on the results. It's Renato from Autonomous Research here. So just a -- first a quick follow-up on loan growth. Just like picking up on your earlier comments, just wanted to know if you should expect to reach the loan growth guidance for this year? And if that's FX adjusted or just the nominal value?
大家好。恭喜取得好成績。我是來自 Autonomous Research 的 Renato。首先,快速跟進一下貸款成長情況。就像您之前提到的那樣,我想知道您是否可以預期今年的貸款成長能夠達到預期目標?如果這是經匯率調整後的價值,還是只是名目價值?
And then my second question is on the NIM expansion. I just wanted to reconcile your comments because I mean we can see the mix shift here driving yields higher. But at the same time, you're commenting on this like lower risk vintages, they're positively impacting cost of risk. So I just wanted to put these two together and see what really happened here. Thank you.
我的第二個問題是關於 NIM 擴充的。我只是想回應你的評論,因為我們可以看到這裡的資產組合變化正在推高收益率。但同時,你評論說,低風險年份的葡萄酒對風險成本產生了積極影響。所以我只是想把這兩個人放在一起,看看到底發生了什麼事。謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Alejandro, would you take that, the first one? The loan growth.
亞歷杭德羅,第一個你願意嗎?貸款增長。
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Sure. So loan growth, I would say that it's -- the number we've given in guidance is nominal, but it does consider the adjustment of Bolivia's restatement, okay, which is just an accounting incentive because we're using a different exchange rate. So it's not considering any impact of the dollar exchange rate.
當然。所以貸款成長方面,我認為——我們在指導意見中給出的數字是名義上的,但它確實考慮到了玻利維亞重述財務報表的調整,好吧,這只是一個會計激勵,因為我們使用了不同的匯率。所以它沒有考慮美元匯率的任何影響。
And we do expect to reach it. I mean if we consider the retail growth we've seen in the third quarter, just by continuing with that retail growth and having some wholesale growth, we should be able to be around that area. And again, with the economic backdrop, we believe it's very achievable in this year.
我們預計能夠實現這一目標。我的意思是,如果我們考慮到第三季零售業的成長,只要繼續保持這種零售成長勢頭,再加上批發業的一些成長,我們應該就能達到那個水準。再者,鑑於當前的經濟形勢,我們認為今年完全有可能實現這一目標。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Go ahead, Cesar. The second question.
是的。請繼續,塞薩爾。第二個問題。
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. The second question. I understand your question because you say it's a combination of better quality but after the better quality, higher cost of risk. The issue is that we are talking about fundamentally of two different portfolios.
是的。第二個問題。我理解你的問題,因為你說這是品質提升的必然結果,但品質提高之後,風險成本也會更高。問題在於,我們討論的本質上是兩種不同的投資組合。
We have been improving the quality of originations so the traditional portfolios are having less cost of risk gradually as Alejandro mentioned, as the year goes, we have moved newly originated part of the portfolio in relation to the originated portfolio in year 2023 that came with higher cost of rates.
我們一直在提高貸款發放質量,因此傳統貸款組合的風險成本正在逐步降低。正如 Alejandro 所提到的,隨著時間的推移,我們已將 2023 年發放的貸款組合中新發放的部分與利率成本較高的貸款組合進行了調整。
So this is a trend that grows the cost of risk down as the year passes, we are starting to originate in new segments with purposely higher cost of risk, higher margin, and this percentage is growing gradually. So the combination of these factors explains the initial draw diminishing the cost of risk and they'll gradually improved as the year ends and the next year began. I don't know if it's clarified the points.
因此,隨著時間的推移,風險成本不斷下降,我們開始在新的領域開拓風險成本更高、利潤率更高的業務,而且這一比例還在逐步增長。因此,這些因素的綜合作用解釋了最初的平局,降低了風險成本,隨著年末年初的到來,情況會逐漸好轉。我不知道這樣是否把要點都解釋清楚了。
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Perfect, sir. It's pretty clear. Thanks very much, and again congrats on the results.
完美,先生。很明顯。非常感謝,再次恭喜你們取得好成績。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.
尤里‧費爾南德斯,摩根大通。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. I have one regarding Bolivia. I know this year has been volatile on FX, the impairments like the readjustments, right, on the portfolio deposits. But now there was an important political shift in Bolivia. I know this is small for your entire operation. But this quarter, it was already better.
各位早安。謝謝您給我提問的機會。我有一個關於玻利維亞的問題。我知道今年外匯市場波動很大,也出現了諸如調整之類的減值,對吧,還有投資組合存款方面的問題。但現在玻利維亞的政治局勢已經發生了重大轉變。我知道這對你們的整個營運來說只是很小的一部分。但本季情況已經好轉。
So if you can comment on what you expect for Bolivia if the elections, like the new President should have any tailwind for you going forward, like any security gains you may have? Just trying to understand is Bolivia from headwind in the past years may become a tailwind for you here? Thank you.
那麼,如果您能談談您對玻利維亞大選的預期,例如新總統的上任是否會為玻利維亞帶來任何利好,例如安全方面的任何進展?我只是想了解一下,過去幾年對你們不利的玻利維亞,現在是否會變成對你們有利的順風?謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Yuri, let me take that question because I believe you know that I ran that bank for three years. So I'm quite knowledgeable about Bolivia. So even though it's very early stages for the new government, the initial definition or decisions they've made -- they're giving very positive signaling.
你好,尤里,這個問題就讓我來回答吧,因為我相信你知道我曾經經營那家銀行三年。我對玻利維亞相當了解。儘管新政府還處於非常早期的階段,但他們所做的初步定義或決定——都發出了非常積極的信號。
The executive cabinet is very pro market and professional, they just appointed -- a yesterday, the day before, the new Central Bank President. He's a very well-seasoned technical guy. So the initial indicators are quite positive.
執行委員會非常親市場且專業,他們剛剛任命了——就在昨天,或者前天——新的中央銀行行長。他是一位經驗豐富的技術人員。所以初步跡象相當積極。
As you mentioned, Bolivia has -- Bolivia, sorry, has been small for us. I've been seeing it as a option value for us. And that option may become quite relevant going forward. We're positive on what Bolivia -- what can happen in Bolivia as a country. Having said that, there's a lot to be done on the political and economical and social matters for the government. But we're quite positive with the potential outcomes going forward.
正如您所提到的,玻利維亞——抱歉,玻利維亞對我們來說一直很小。我一直認為這對我們來說是一個選擇權價值。而這個選項在未來可能會變得非常重要。我們對玻利維亞的未來充滿信心——我們對玻利維亞作為一個國家能夠發生的一切充滿信心。話雖如此,政府在政治、經濟和社會事務方面還有很多工作要做。但我們對未來的潛在結果相當樂觀。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
No. Thank you, Gianfranco. So we'll keep asking about the uptick, but [original] that you have the optionality there. If I may, just a quick second one. Payout and dividends, your [pepco] accumulation has been pretty strong. I know you have the cash payment of the legal debate (technical difficulty)
不。謝謝你,吉安弗蘭科。所以我們會繼續詢問成長情況,但[原文]你在那裡有選擇權。如果可以的話,再問一個問題。派息和分紅方面,你們的[pepco]股票累積相當強勁。我知道你已經支付了法律辯論的現金。(技術難題)
Operator
Operator
Carlos Gomez, HSBC.
卡洛斯‧戈麥斯,匯豐銀行。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. Congratulations, particularly in Yape and particularly on [Bolivia] you really took my question because I know that is close to your heart, but in that regard, you have the changes in Bolivia, you have the elections in Chile, the elections in Colombia as well as Peru.
謝謝。早安.恭喜,尤其是在雅佩,尤其是在玻利維亞,你真的回答了我的問題,因為我知道這對你來說很重要,但在這方面,玻利維亞發生了變化,智利、哥倫比亞和秘魯都舉行了選舉。
So it seems to me that you might have a target rich environment for investment around the region. Does that make you more inclined to perhaps invest more and distribute less? And if so, do you have a particular geographical difference right now? That will be the question. Yes.
所以在我看來,你們地區可能有豐富的投資機會。這是否會讓你更傾向於增加投資、減少支出?如果是這樣,目前是否存在特定的地域差異?那將是關鍵問題。是的。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Good morning. Carlos, our region -- so again, Credicorp (technical difficulty) impacts the performance of our countries and our appetite. Having said all of that, we are quite positive to what could happen, especially in Bolivia, Chile and Peru.
是的。早安.卡洛斯,我們地區——所以再次,Credicorp(技術困難)影響了我們國家的表現和我們的投資意願。綜上所述,我們對未來可能發生的事情持相當樂觀的態度,尤其是在玻利維亞、智利和秘魯。
Let me provide you more detail. It's not only because -- it's not because of the change in government and government -- the upcoming government being more pro market or whatever, that's definitely relevant but more relevant than that is what's going on with commodity prices, specifically copper and lithium and gold in the case of Peru.
讓我提供更多細節。這不僅是因為──不只是因為政府更迭──即將上任的政府更親市場等等,當然很重要,但更重要的是大宗商品價格的走勢,特別是秘魯的銅、鋰和黃金價格。
So copper prices and you guys or your banks know more than we do. Copper prices should stay at high levels for a long period because of the investments that are being done in data centers and that data centers consume a lot of energy. And lithium, it's a matter of the transition, sorry, to electric vehicles and so on.
所以,銅價方面,你們或你們的銀行比我們更了解狀況。由於資料中心領域的投資以及資料中心消耗大量能源,銅價應會在很長一段時間內保持高位。至於鋰,這關乎向電動車等的過渡,抱歉,是過渡的問題。
And gold is like a [H2] dollar basically. So we are positive on that. And well, both Chile and Bolivia are very relevant in lithium reserves, both Chile and Peru and really relevant in copper reserves. So the whole -- there are a lot of moving pieces, but the whole environment, we see a very -- a much more positive environment for the upcoming years when you compare that environment to what we have had in the last I don't know, four, five years in these three countries.
黃金基本上就像美元一樣。所以我們對此持肯定態度。智利和玻利維亞的鋰儲量都非常重要,智利和秘魯的銅儲量也非常重要。所以,整體而言——有很多變數,但就整體環境而言,與過去四到五年這三個國家的情況相比,我們看到未來幾年的環境要積極得多。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
We are happy to hear. Thank you so much. And if I can sneak in one more question on the rates. Could you give us an update on your sensitivity to raise both US dollars and soles? Thank you.
我們很高興聽到這個消息。太感謝了。我還能再問一個關於利率的問題嗎?您能否告知我們您對美元和索爾升值的敏感度有何最新情況?謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Alejandro?
亞歷杭德羅?
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Sure. Hi, Carlos, the -- again, we've talked about this before. So we have a theoretical number of 100 basis points decrease in rate, both in soles and dollars parallel [heat]. That number today is at 17 basis points, 15 of those come from the dollar part of the book and just two on the solid part. Again, this is a very theoretical example.
當然。嗨,卡洛斯,——我們之前已經討論過這個問題了。因此,理論上索爾和美元匯率都會下降100個基點。[熱]。今天的這個數字是 17 個基點,其中 15 個基點來自美元部分,只有 2 個基點來自實體部分。再次強調,這只是一個非常理論化的例子。
And I mentioned in the Investor Day, actually, what we've seen in practices, our NIM growing, while the rates in Peru has come down more than 300 basis points. So the theoretical sensitivity to those 70 basis points, we are expecting actually NIM to continue very strong and risk-adjusted into growth in the coming years.
事實上,我在投資者日上也提到過,我們在實踐中看到了淨利差的增長,而秘魯的利率已經下降了 300 多個基點。因此,理論上對這 70 個基點的敏感性,我們預計未來幾年淨利差將繼續保持強勁增長,並經風險調整後實現增長。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Thanks for the update.
謝謝你的更新。
Operator
Operator
Marcelo Mizrahi from Bredesco BBI. And we'll move on to our next question. We have Andres Soto from Santander.
來自布雷德斯科 BBI 的馬塞洛·米茲拉希 (Marcelo Mizrahi)。接下來,我們將討論下一個問題。我們有來自桑坦德銀行的安德烈斯·索托。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
Good morning to all, and thank you for the presentation. My question is regarding Yape. And some of the numbers that you mentioned during the call, you said you expect revenue in Yape to triple by 2028. And the revenue in Yape already represents 6.5% of Credicorp total revenue.
各位早安,感謝你們的演講。我的問題與Yape有關。您在電話會議中提到的一些數字,您表示預計到 2028 年 Yape 的收入將成長兩倍。Yape的收入已經佔Credicorp總收入的6.5%。
So it will be fair to assume that by 2028, that number should increase to 15% the revenue contribution from Yape? And if so and making assumptions also regarding the efficiency, the contribution to the bottom line should be in excess of 20%. Is this the way that you guys look at this?
因此,我們可以合理地假設,到 2028 年,Yape 的收入貢獻應該會增加到 15%?如果情況屬實,並且考慮到效率,那麼對利潤的貢獻應該超過 20%。你們也是這麼看的嗎?
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Yeah. Well, to your point, Yape is going to be a [big] contributor year-over-year for Credicorp. We are expecting it to be around the 15% mark of not necessarily revenue but net result for Credicorp in the next three years or so.
是的。嗯,正如你所說,Yape 將會是 Credicorp 每年[很大]的貢獻者。我們預計,在未來三年左右的時間裡,Credicorp 的淨利潤(不一定是收入)將占到該比例的 15% 左右。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
Okay. But even in that conservative assumption, Alejandro, if it represents 15% of income of earnings in 2028. Currently, when you look at the fourth quarter, it represented less than 5% for the full year, I would say, 2.5%, something like that. you will see an earnings accretion in excess of 10% of the level that you have now and the ROE of Credicorp is already at 19%, even higher than that. So the ROE by 2028 would be 21%. My point here is the 19.5% that you present as a medium-term target, sounds conservative considering the potential for earnings accretion coming from Yape.
好的。但即使在這種保守的假設下,Alejandro,如果這代表 2028 年收入的 15%。目前,第四季佔全年的不到5%,我估計大概是2.5%左右。你會看到獲利成長超過目前的10%,而Credicorp的淨資產收益率(ROE)已經達到19%,甚至更高。因此,到 2028 年,淨資產收益率將達到 21%。我的觀點是,你提出的 19.5% 的中期目標,考慮到 Yape 可能帶來的獲利成長,聽起來有些保守。
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer
Sure. No, I think your numbers are -- make a lot of sense. We mentioned around 19.5%. And again, we have elections in all the countries in this coming year. So we certainly -- I would say we are usually conservative in that kind of use.
當然。不,我認為你的數據——很有道理。我們提到大約是 19.5%。此外,明年各國都將舉行選舉。所以,我肯定會說,我們通常在這種使用方式上比較保守。
We're certain we'll come back and revise that at a later time when there's more certainty on the political outlook for other countries. But again, if everything works as planned, probably around 19.5%, will be on the higher end of that concept for sure. But again, we'll come and revise that later -- No. I mean we're going to be around 19.5% -- we're going to be on the ramp to the upside more than -- that's what I was trying to say.
我們確信,當其他國家的政治前景更加明朗時,我們會在日後回來修改這個決定。但話說回來,如果一切照計畫進行,大概在 19.5% 左右,肯定會是這個概念的較高水準。但是,我們稍後會對此進行修改——不。我的意思是,我們大概會達到 19.5% 左右——我們會比之前更積極地向上發展——這就是我想說的。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Andres, your pushback is -- this is Gianfranco, your pushback is correct. But again, even though we're positive on the outlook of what could happen in the region, we're still in Latin America. So volatility is part of the game. And that growth in terms of income at Yape, there are a lot of assumptions, a lot -- there's execution risk and so on. So you know us for a long time, yes, our outlook or our guidance is on the positive side, and Yape may have a relevant -- positive impact on the upside of that.
安德烈斯,你的反駁是-我是詹法蘭科,你的反駁是正確的。但是,儘管我們對該地區的未來前景持樂觀態度,但我們仍然身處拉丁美洲。所以波動性是遊戲的一部分。而 Yape 的營收成長有很多假設,有很多假設,有很多——有執行風險等等。所以,您認識我們很久了,是的,我們的展望或指導方針是積極的,而 Yape 可能會對此產生相關的積極影響。
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer
Not today, but in three years can be also a little bit of cannibalization between several vehicles. That is not relevant at all now.
今天不會,但三年後幾輛車之間也可能會有一些零件互換的情況。現在這完全無關緊要了。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
Yes. That's a fair assumption, Cesar, the cannibalization will come against Mibanco and this -- with a much higher potential for ROE. So it will be even accretive if that comes to happen.
是的。塞薩爾,你的假設很合理,蠶食將會發生在Mibanco和這家公司身上──而這家公司還有更高的ROE潛力。所以如果這種情況發生,將更有利於成長。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
You're totally right, Andres. The cannibalization should generate value rather than the destroy value.
安德烈斯,你說得完全對。這種蠶食行為應該創造價值,而不是破壞價值。
Andres Soto - Analyst
Andres Soto - Analyst
Okay. Sounds good. Thank you, guys. And congratulations on the results.
好的。聽起來不錯。謝謝大家。恭喜你取得好成績。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Alonso Aramburú, BTG.
Alonso Aramburú,BTG。
Alonso Aramburu - Analyst
Alonso Aramburu - Analyst
Yes. Hi, good morning, and thank you for the call. Just following up on your recent comments, you mentioned that Yape is doing a pilot for the SME segment. So I'm just wondering if you can give us some color on that. How different is that to the strategy you're following compared to Mibanco. Is this targeting the same new Mibanco clients or these different clients? Are you using reps to visit some of these clients? Just to give us some color into how you're approaching this via Yape.
是的。您好,早安,謝謝您的來電。關於您最近的評論,您提到 Yape 正在針對中小企業領域進行試點計畫。所以我想知道您能否就此提供一些細節資訊。這與你和Mibanco所採取的策略有何不同?這是針對Mibanco的同一批新客戶,還是針對這些不同的客戶?你們是否派銷售代表拜訪部分客戶?為了讓大家更清楚地了解您是如何透過 Yape 來處理這件事的,我先簡單介紹一下。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Alonso, this is Gianfranco. We're approaching Yape in a very different way -- a different model than the Mibanco model. It's basically based on transactions we gather through the app. So there's basically no human contact. That said, that model is much cheaper, much more efficient than the Mibanco model, but it's an untested model.
阿隆索,這位是詹弗蘭科。我們對待 Yape 的方式截然不同——與 Mibanco 的模式不同。它基本上是基於我們透過應用程式收集的交易數據。所以基本上沒有人與人接觸。也就是說,該模型比 Mibanco 模型便宜得多,效率也高得多,但它是一個未經檢驗的模型。
So we are at the very initial stages, even though the vintages, which are not relevant yet, are performing quite well. But you see that the Mibanco model is a more expensive model, but it's a very prudent model with high ROEs, high NPS and so on, whereas Yape is an untested model.
所以我們現在還處於非常初始的階段,儘管這些年份的葡萄酒(目前還不具有相關性)表現相當不錯。但您可以看到,Mibanco 模式雖然成本更高,但它是一個非常謹慎的模式,具有較高的 ROE、較高的 NPS 等,而 Yape 則是一個未經檢驗的模式。
We still see that there's a lot of space, the larger one is [land] bank or under bank. But still, Mibanco only has 20%-plus of -- low 20s market shares in the micro finance business. So there's a lot of space for gaining share overall.
我們仍然可以看到有很多空間,較大的空間是(土地)堤岸或堤岸下。但即便如此,Mibanco 在小額信貸業務中的市佔率也只有 20% 多一點——也就是 20% 出頭。因此,整體而言,市佔率還有很大的提升空間。
As Cesar mentioned before, as of today, we are not worried whatsoever in terms of cannibalization between Mibanco and Yape. Maybe, I don't know, two, three years down the road, we may we think the whole approach to the microfinance SME businesses here in Peru.
正如 Cesar 之前提到的,就目前而言,我們完全不擔心 Mibanco 和 Yape 之間會出現蠶食關係。也許,我不知道,兩三年後,我們可能會重新考慮秘魯小額信貸中小企業的整體發展模式。
Alonso Aramburu - Analyst
Alonso Aramburu - Analyst
Thank you, Franco.
謝謝你,法蘭哥。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
(操作說明)
Marcelo Mizrahi, Bradesco BBI.
馬塞洛·米茲拉希 (Marcelo Mizrahi),布拉德斯科 BBI。
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Hello, everyone. Thank you for the question. My first time here. Very good to be here with you. So my question is regarding the insurance business. So in the last couple of quarters, the loss ratios are going down on life and also in Crediseguro.
大家好。謝謝你的提問。這是我第一次來這裡。很高興能和你們在一起。所以我的問題是關於保險業的。因此,在過去的幾個季度裡,人壽保險和 Crediseguro 保險的賠付率都在下降。
My question is to look forward if it is recurring. So look forward, these loss ratios will return to the levels of 50% on life or not. This is a new level of loss ratios to this line and looking to the Crediseguro, the same question. Thank you.
我的問題是,這種情況是否會反覆發生?所以展望未來,無論是否擁有人壽保險,這些損失率都將恢復到 50% 的水平。這是該線路損失率的新水平,而對於 Crediseguro 來說,情況也是如此。謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Sure. Hi, Marcelo. There's been a particular effect on the survival business related to restatement done from some pension plans on the number of people. So the thing is it's been an unusual positive result, and we should go back to more normalized levels going forward.
當然。你好,馬塞洛。由於一些退休金計劃的參保人數進行了重述,對生存業務產生了特別的影響。所以問題是,這是一個不尋常的積極結果,我們應該讓情況恢復到更正常的水平。
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Okay. But those levels are around 20%, 30% loss ratios or they will come back to 50% as they was in the last year?
好的。但這些水準的損失率在20%到30%左右,還是會像去年那樣回升到50%?
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Let me -- so the short answer is what Alejandro mentioned, there are some exceptional impact on the loss ratios this quarter. Going forward to your question that is, is it going to be back at 50%. If I were to provide a short answer, it would be, yes, a more structural answer is that the further we go into the bancassurance and life insurance business on a more retail and lower-end segment, that the ratio should improve. Margins there are better. So it's not that we're going to have the ratios we have this quarter, but in the medium to long run, that the ratios we have in the past should be better going forward.
讓我簡單回答一下——正如 Alejandro 所提到的,本季的損失率受到了一些特殊影響。至於你的問題,那就是,它會回到 50% 嗎?如果讓我給簡短的回答,那就是:是的。更結構性的答案是:隨著我們進一步擴大銀行保險和人壽保險業務,尤其是在零售和低端市場,這個比例應該會有所改善。那裡的利潤率更高。所以,這並不是說我們這個季度會維持目前的比率,而是說從中長期來看,我們過去的比率在未來應該會更好。
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
And the last one about insurance. So do you guys believe that this line will maintain this pace of growing more than the other lines, so it will generate value add value comparing to the other lines of the bank? Thanks.
最後一條是關於保險的。所以你們認為這條業務線會保持比其他業務線更快的成長速度,從而比其他業務線創造更高的附加價值嗎?謝謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
So yeah, a great question. We always talk about the financial system in Peru is under penetrated and so on. When you see the level of penetration in insurance is -- that's even. I don't know if the word is worse or better. Worse in terms of receiving -- the Peruvian population coverage, but better in terms of business opportunity.
是的,問得好。我們總是說秘魯的金融體系滲透率低等等。當你看到保險業的滲透率時——這簡直是零和零。我不知道這個詞是更好還是更糟。收訊方面較差-秘魯人口覆蓋率較低,但商業機會方面較好。
So going to your question, we are quite positive that business should grow at really high rates for the upcoming years. And we're working very heavily on deploying new products, new channels, improving value propositions and so on, so as to reach the underinsured in Peru.
所以回到你的問題,我們非常樂觀地認為,未來幾年業務將以非常高的速度成長。我們正在大力推動新產品、新通路的推出,改進價值主張等等,以便惠及秘魯的保險不足人群。
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Marcello Miarahi - Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。非常感謝。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, there appear to be no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.
女士們、先生們,目前似乎沒有其他問題了。現在我把發言權交還給執行長詹弗蘭科·法拉利先生,請他作總結發言。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. We're entering the final months of the year with strong operating foundations and a clear sense of strategic direction. I want to reiterate the core message we shared at our Investor Day. Our strategy is built not just to perform in favorable conditions, but to [lure] and thrive across cycles.
謝謝。我們帶著穩固的營運基礎和清晰的策略方向進入了今年的最後幾個月。我想重申我們在投資者日上分享的核心訊息。我們的策略不僅旨在在有利條件下取得良好業績,而且旨在跨越週期吸引和發展。
Over the past four years, we have grown net income faster than Peru's nominal GDP, driven by the strength of our diversified business model, scalable platforms and disciplined execution. In that context, we've raised our medium-term ROE target from around 18% to approximately 19.5%, reflecting the benefits of a more inclusive digitally enabled business as we expand into new segments and broaden our addressable market.
過去四年,憑藉我們多元化的商業模式、可擴展的平台和嚴謹的執行力,我們的淨收入成長速度超過了秘魯的名目GDP成長速度。在此背景下,我們將中期淨資產收益率目標從約 18% 提高到約 19.5%,這反映了隨著我們拓展新領域和擴大目標市場,更具包容性的數位化業務所帶來的益處。
To get there, our strategy is focused on unlocking operating leverage and driving sustainable profitability. We will deliver higher risk-adjusted NIM through a more retail-oriented loan portfolio while increasing transactional and noninterest income from our disruptive initiatives.
為了實現這一目標,我們的策略重點是釋放營運槓桿並推動永續獲利能力。我們將透過更以零售為導向的貸款組合實現更高的風險調整後淨利差,同時透過我們的顛覆性措施增加交易收入和非利息收入。
Together, these drivers will accelerate income growth, enhance efficiency toward the 42% level and strengthen our ability to generate superior long-term returns. At the same time, we remain mindful of the broader context.
這些因素共同作用,將加速收入成長,提高效率至 42% 的水平,並增強我們創造卓越長期回報的能力。同時,我們始終關注更廣泛的背景。
While Peru continues to face political uncertainty, including its seventh presidential transition in under a decade, its macroeconomic institutions remain intact. This is a familiar pattern, political volatility consistent with economic resilience.
儘管秘魯持續面臨政治不確定性,包括不到十年內的第七次總統更迭,但其宏觀經濟體系仍完好無損。這是一個熟悉的模式,政治波動與經濟韌性一致。
That said, political uncertainty does carry an opportunity cost. And we hope that in time, greater political stability will allow the country to fully unlock its growth potential. Early signs from the new administration point to a more pragmatic tone and renewed efforts to engage the private sector.
也就是說,政治不確定性確實會帶來機會成本。我們希望隨著時間的推移,更大的政治穩定性將使該國能夠充分釋放其成長潛力。新政府的早期跡象表明,其態度更加務實,並加強了與私營部門合作的力度。
Business sentiment is gradually improving, with more companies planning to invest, hire and expand activity in the upcoming quarters. In this environment, our focus is clear: execute with discipline, expand financial inclusion and deliver long-term value for our shareholders and the societies we serve. Thank you for your continued trust and partnership.
商業信心正在逐步改善,越來越多的公司計劃在未來幾季進行投資、招募和擴大業務。在這種環境下,我們的重點很明確:嚴謹執行,擴大金融包容性,為我們的股東和我們所服務的社會創造長期價值。感謝您一直以來的信任與合作。
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.
謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的報告到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了。
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
謝謝。
Editor
Editor
Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.
本文字稿中標示(技術難題)的部分錶示有音訊問題。如果有重播視頻,我們會補充缺少的文本。