Credicorp Ltd (BAP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Credicorp Ltd Second Quarter 2025 Conference Call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast, which is available in the Investors section of Credit Corp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Now it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Credicorp's IRO, Milagros Ciguenas. You may begin.

    大家早安。歡迎您參加 Credicorp Ltd 2025 年第二季電話會議。今天的網路廣播將附帶幻燈片演示,可在 Credit Corp 網站的「投資者」部分找到。今天的電話會議正在錄音。(操作員指示)現在我很高興將會議交給 Credicorp 的 IRO,Milagros Ciguenas。你可以開始了。

  • Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer

    Milagros Ciguenas - Investor Relation Officer

  • Good morning. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Executive Officer; and Alejandro Perez-Reyes, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating in the Q&A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer; Cesar Rios, Chief Risk Officer; Diego Cavero, Head of Universal Banking; Cesar Rivera, CFO of Insurance and Pensions; and Rocio Benavides, Mibanco Chief Financial Officer.

    早安.謝謝大家,早安。今天的電話會議演講者將是我們的執行長 Gianfranco Ferrari;以及我們的財務長 Alejandro Perez-Reyes。參加問答環節的還有首席創新官 Francesca Raffo、首席風險官 Cesar Rios、全能銀行業務主管 Diego Cavero、保險和養老金業務首席財務官 Cesar Rivera 以及 Mibanco 首席財務官 Rocio Benavides。

  • Before we proceed, I would like to make the following safe harbor statement. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. And I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances.

    在我們繼續之前,我想發表以下安全港聲明。今天的電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期和信念,並受許多風險和不確定性的影響。我請您參閱我們收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。我們不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映新的或變更的事件或情況的義務。

  • Gianfranco Ferrari will begin the call with remarks on the improved macro environment, a brief overview of our quarterly results and an update on our strategy to build a more agile, balanced and forward-looking platform, followed by Alejandro Perez-Reyes, who will provide a more detailed analysis of key macroeconomic indicators, our financial performance and our outlook for 2025. Gianfranco, please go ahead.

    詹弗蘭科·法拉利 (Gianfranco Ferrari) 將在電話會議上首先談到宏觀環境的改善,簡要概述我們的季度業績,並介紹我們構建更靈活、更平衡、更具前瞻性的平台的戰略更新,隨後亞歷杭德羅·佩雷斯·雷耶斯 (Alejandro Perez-Reyes) 將對關鍵經濟指標以及我們對我們的財務展望。詹弗蘭科,請繼續。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Milagros. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Let me begin with reflections on Peru's evolving macro environment and why Credicorp is uniquely positioned to benefit from what's ahead. Momentum is building. Terms of trade remain historically high, driven by strong gold, silver and copper prices. Also, Peru maintains a solid trade surplus. Inflation is below 2%, real wages are recovering and formal employment is expanding. GDP is expected to grow 3.2% this year with domestic demand growing around 4.5%. These tailwinds are creating a more constructive backdrop. The data tells one story. The renewed activity on the ground is even more promising. While large infrastructure projects have yet to ramp up, small and midsized businesses are investing again, modernizing, adding capacity and meeting stronger demand.

    謝謝你,米拉格羅斯。大家早安,感謝大家的收看。首先,我想談談秘魯不斷變化的宏觀環境,以及 Credicorp 為何具有獨特的優勢可以從未來中受益。勢頭正在增強。受黃金、白銀和銅價格強勁推動,貿易條件仍處於歷史高點。此外,秘魯保持著穩定的貿易順差。通貨膨脹率低於2%,實質薪資正在回升,正規就業正在擴大。預計今年國內生產毛額將成長 3.2%,國內需求將成長 4.5% 左右。這些順風正在創造更建設性的背景。數據講述了一個故事。地面上重新開展的活動更是令人充滿希望。雖然大型基礎設施項目尚未啟動,但中小型企業正在再次投資、現代化、增加產能並滿足更強勁的需求。

  • Investments are increasingly spread across regions, laying a healthier foundation for sustained growth. In this environment, Credicorp is ready not just to participate in the recovery, but to lead it. We've built a resilient, diversified business anchored in digital infrastructure, deep client engagement and scalable fee-generating platforms. This enables us to perform through difficult cycles, increasingly decoupling from the macro. With improving tailwinds, we're even better positioned to capture the upside efficiency efficiently and profitably. Our Q2 results reflect that momentum, stronger fundamentals, improving credit dynamics and disciplined credit execution.

    投資區域分佈日益均衡,為持續成長奠定了更良好的基礎。在這種環境下,Credicorp 不僅準備參與復甦,而且準備引領復甦。我們建立了一個有彈性的、多元化的業務,以數位基礎設施、深度客戶參與和可擴展的收費平台為基礎。這使我們能夠度過艱難的周期,並逐漸擺脫對宏觀經濟的依賴。隨著順風條件的改善,我們更有能力有效率且有利地獲得上行效率。我們的第二季業績反映了這一勢頭、更強勁的基本面、不斷改善的信貸動態和更嚴格的信貸執行。

  • We now expect ROE for the year to reach approximately 19%, including a 50 basis point boost from extraordinary income in the first half, with a longer-term outlook of around 19.5%. This underscores solid performance, structural resilience and the accelerating impact of disruptive platforms like Yape. While our efficiency ratio reflects upfront investments to scale these capabilities, we remain focused on unlocking operating leverage through disciplined execution in digital, data and risk. A healthier macro level recovery further reinforces our long-term view and strengthens our confidence in delivering sustained shareholder value.

    我們現在預計全年 ROE 將達到約 19%,其中包括上半年非經常性收入帶來的 50 個基點的提升,長期預期為 19.5% 左右。這凸顯了穩健的表現、結構彈性以及 Yape 等顛覆性平台的加速影響。雖然我們的效率比率反映了擴大這些能力的前期投資,但我們仍然專注於透過在數位、數據和風險方面的嚴格執行來釋放營運槓桿。更健康的宏觀經濟復甦進一步強化了我們的長期觀點,並增強了我們實現持續股東價值的信心。

  • Alejandro will detail the results and updated outlook. But before that, let me comment briefly on our situation with SUNAT. As previously announced, SUNAT has required us to pay approximatelPEN y PEN1.6 billion in alleged and paid income tax and associated interest, which was done this week. This development does not alter our legal position or our confidence in a favorable resolution. We continue to believe that our case has strong legal and technical grounds. We are prepared to defend our position through the appropriate channels, whether at the tax court where proceedings may take one to three years or if necessary, through the judiciary, which

    亞歷杭德羅將詳細介紹結果和最新展望。但在此之前,請容許我簡要評論一下我們與 SUNAT 的情況。正如先前宣布的那樣,國家稅務局要求我們支付約 16 億秘魯索爾的所謂和已支付的所得稅及相關利息,這項工作已於本週完成。這一發展不會改變我們的法律地位或我們對有利解決方案的信心。我們仍然相信我們的案件具有強有力的法律和技術依據。我們準備透過適當的管道捍衛我們的立場,無論是在稅務法庭(訴訟程序可能需要一到三年),還是在必要時透過司法機構(

  • could extend the process by an additional five years. We will continue to operate with discipline and transparency, defending our rights while building a stronger, more agile Credicorp.

    可能會將過程再延長五年。我們將繼續嚴格遵守紀律,透明運營,捍衛我們的權利,同時打造更強大、更敏捷的 Credicorp。

  • Let's now turn to our Q2 performance. We delivered another solid quarter with strong contributions across core businesses and continued execution on strategic priorities. These results translated into an ROE of 20.7%, supported by solid operating performance and disciplined risk management. Universal Banking and Insurance & Pensions posted very strong results, while Microfinance continued to recover. Fee-based and transactional income also grew, reinforcing our diversified platform. Our innovation portfolio contributed 6.2% of risk-adjusted revenues, keeping us on track toward our 10% target for 2026. Credit dynamics improved and FX-neutral loan growth accelerated across all segments. Origination pipelines remain healthy, particularly in Retail Banking and Microfinance, and we expect sustained engagement in the second half of the year. Risk-adjusted NIM hit a record 5.4%, aided by improved asset quality and our low-cost funding structure.

    現在讓我們來看看第二季的表現。我們又度過了一個穩健的季度,核心業務做出了巨大貢獻,並繼續執行策略重點。在穩健的經營績效和嚴格的風險管理的支持下,這些結果轉化為 20.7% 的 ROE。全能銀行業務和保險及退休金業務業績強勁,小額信貸業務持續復甦。費用收入和交易收入也有所增長,鞏固了我們的多元化平台。我們的創新組合貢獻了 6.2% 的風險調整後收入,使我們有望實現 2026 年 10% 的目標。信貸動態得到改善,所有領域的外匯中性貸款成長均加速。發起通路依然健康,特別是在零售銀行和小額信貸領域,我們預計下半年將繼續保持參與。受資產品質改善和低成本融資結構推動,風險調整後淨利差達到創紀錄的 5.4%。

  • On deposits, we increased our share of demand and saving accounts to 40.6%, reflecting our digital strategy and the trust we've built with clients. Asset quality trends remain favorable, thanks to tighter origination standards, refined risk pricing and strengthened collections. Our efficiency ratio came in at 44.2%, within our expected range, highlighting the scalability of our digital investments and our disciplined approach to cost control. Capital levels remain solid across all businesses.

    在存款方面,我們將活期和儲蓄帳戶的份額提高到 40.6%,這反映了我們的數位策略和我們與客戶建立的信任。由於更嚴格的發起標準、更完善的風險定價和更強的收款能力,資產品質趨勢仍然良好。我們的效率比率達到 44.2%,在預期範圍內,突顯了我們的數位投資的可擴展性和我們嚴謹的成本控制方法。所有業務的資本水準依然保持穩健。

  • Our performance this quarter reflects more than improved macro conditions. It's the result of a deliberate multiyear strategy to build a more agile, balanced and forward-looking platform. In recent years, we've modernized systems, built end-to-end digital capabilities and reimagine client engagement across each of our businesses. These investments continue to pay off in performance, resilience and adaptability. We're encouraged by the strong traction of our disruptive innovation portfolio, a key pillar of our long-term strategy. Credicorp is no longer just a credit growth story. We're structurally shifting to a more balanced model where fee generation, client engagement and scalable innovation are just as critical as lending. This transformation strengthens our resilience and positions us for more consistent, higher-quality growth. It's the foundation for the finance of the future, more inclusive, more digital and more sustainable.

    我們本季的業績不僅反映了宏觀環境的改善。這是經過深思熟慮的多年策略的結果,旨在建立一個更靈活、平衡和前瞻性的平台。近年來,我們對系統進行了現代化改造,建構了端到端的數位化能力,並重新構想了我們每個業務部門的客戶參與度。這些投資在性能、彈性和適應性方面繼續獲得回報。我們的顛覆性創新產品組合是我們長期策略的重要支柱,其強大的吸引力令我們感到鼓舞。Credicorp 不再只是一個信貸成長故事。我們正在從結構上轉向一種更平衡的模式,其中費用產生、客戶參與和可擴展創新與貸款同樣重要。這種轉變增強了我們的韌性,並使我們能夠實現更持續、更高品質的成長。它是未來金融的基礎,更具包容性、更數位化、更永續。

  • Yape continues to scale in both reach and relevance, now serving nearly 15 million monthly active users, equivalent to 75% of Peru's economically active population. Its monetization strategy is advancing, making it one of the top 5 contributors to fee income in the Peruvian financial system. Transaction volumes and engagement remains high, and we're expanding services and deepening client interactions. With platforms like Yape and promising ones like Tenpo, our soon-to-be digital bank, we're scaling high-impact services that grow revenues and deepen relationships transaction by transaction, not just loan by loan.

    Yape 的覆蓋範圍和相關性不斷擴大,目前每月服務近 1500 萬活躍用戶,相當於秘魯經濟活躍人口的 75%。其貨幣化策略正在推進,使其成為秘魯金融體系收費收入的前五大貢獻者之一。交易量和參與度仍然很高,我們正在擴展服務並深化客戶互動。借助 Yape 等平台以及即將推出的數位銀行 Tenpo 等前景光明的平台,我們正在擴大高影響力的服務,從而透過每筆交易(而不僅僅是每筆貸款)來增加收入並深化關係。

  • As part of our long-term vision, we're building the next-generation capabilities to future-proof our businesses and redefine value creation for clients, employees and shareholders. This includes advancing digital onboarding, behavioral scoring, embedded finance and ecosystem-based distribution. These are not just pilots. They are core building blocks for lasting differentiation. We're embedding AI and data management across our operations to generate value in tangible, scalable ways. Let me highlight three key areas. First, we're elevating the customer experience through hyper personalization and advanced chatbots and voicebots making every interaction faster, smarter and more intuitive.

    作為我們長期願景的一部分,我們正在建立下一代能力,以確保我們業務的未來發展,並重新定義為客戶、員工和股東創造價值。這包括推進數位化入職、行為評分、嵌入式金融和基於生態系統的分銷。他們不僅僅是飛行員。它們是持久差異化的核心基石。我們在整個營運過程中嵌入人工智慧和資料管理,以切實、可擴展的方式創造價值。讓我強調三個關鍵領域。首先,我們透過超個人化和先進的聊天機器人和語音機器人來提升客戶體驗,使每次互動更快、更聰明、更直覺。

  • Second, we're enhancing operational efficiency by equipping our teams with AI copilots and productivity tools. These are already driving productivity gains of over 30% in cogeneration and simplifying daily workflows for commercial teams and analysts. Third, we're strengthening strategic decision-making by harnessing data insights to identify new market opportunities, optimize our offerings and increase earnings through solutions such as ALM optimization, smart customer prioritization and strengthened risk management frameworks. By embedding AI deeply into how we operate, we're not just innovating. We're building a future where both our clients and our people benefit from smarter, faster and more effective solutions. This commitment positions us at the forefront of our industry's transformation.

    其次,我們為團隊配備人工智慧副駕駛和生產力工具來提高營運效率。這些已經推動了熱電聯產生產力的提高 30% 以上,並簡化了商業團隊和分析師的日常工作流程。第三,我們利用數據洞察力來加強策略決策,以發現新的市場機會,優化我們的產品,並透過 ALM 優化、智慧客戶優先順序和加強風險管理框架等解決方案來增加收益。透過將人工智慧深深嵌入我們的營運方式中,我們不僅僅是在進行創新。我們正在建立一個未來,讓我們的客戶和員工都能從更聰明、更快速、更有效的解決方案中受益。這項承諾使我們處於產業轉型的前沿。

  • Our goal is to shape the future of finance in our region, not only through technology, but through a model that is inclusive, efficient and highly engaging. Looking ahead, we remain focused on execution, innovation and long-term value creation. I invite you to join us in New York on October 9 for our Investor Day, marking the 30th anniversary of our IPO. Together with our business leaders, I'll share how we're transforming finance to improve life and positioning our platform to lead in a changing region. We'll outline our financial services model of the future, anchored in innovation, inclusion and data-driven client engagement, while scaling distribution and unlocking synergies across our ecosystem. We'll also show how AI advanced risk and data capabilities and disciplined execution are future-proofing our business for sustainable growth.

    我們的目標是塑造我們地區金融的未來,不僅透過技術,而且透過包容、高效和高度參與的模式。展望未來,我們將繼續專注於執行、創新和長期價值創造。我邀請您於 10 月 9 日參加我們在紐約舉行的投資者日活動,紀念我們 IPO 30 週年。我將與我們的商業領袖一起分享我們如何轉變金融以改善生活,以及如何定位我們的平台以引領不斷變化的地區。我們將概述我們未來的金融服務模式,以創新、包容和數據驅動的客戶參與為基礎,同時擴大分銷並釋放我們生態系統的協同效應。我們還將展示人工智慧如何利用先進的風險和數據能力以及嚴謹的執行力來確保我們的業務實現永續成長。

  • Having said that, let me pass the presentation to Alejandro.

    話雖如此,讓我把演講交給亞歷杭德羅。

  • Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

    Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Gianfranco, and good morning, everyone. This quarter's 20.7% ROE reflects sustained momentum in our core businesses and the increasing contribution of our innovation portfolio. These results include a positive 120 basis point impact related to a relevant gain in BCP's investment portfolio. Similar to what we communicated last quarter, we revalued Bolivia's balance sheet using a more market reflective exchange rate, we generated an accounting contraction of 2.8% in Credicorp's total assets this quarter.

    謝謝你,詹弗蘭科,大家早安。本季 20.7% 的 ROE 反映了我們核心業務的持續發展動能以及創新組合的貢獻不斷增加。這些結果包括與 BCP 投資組合相關收益相關的 120 個基點的正影響。與我們上個季度傳達的訊息類似,我們使用更能反映市場的匯率重新評估了玻利維亞的資產負債表,本季 Credicorp 的總資產會計收縮了 2.8%。

  • As I discuss the quarter's highlights, I will focus on the year-over-year operating trends. Loans measured in quarter-end balances dropped 4.1%, impacted by the revaluation of Bolivia's balance sheet and a depreciation in BCP's dollar portfolio following an appreciation of the Peruvian sol. Excluding these effects, underlying loan growth for the quarter was 2.6%. This increase was driven primarily by BCP, particularly through mortgages and consumer loans in Retail Banking and by Mibanco. Asset quality has improved materially year-over-year. NPLs contracted across the board and Credicorp's NPL ratio stood at 5% this quarter.

    當我討論本季的亮點時,我將重點放在同比營運趨勢。以季度末餘額衡量的貸款下降了 4.1%,受到玻利維亞資產負債表重估以及秘魯索爾升值後 BCP 美元投資組合貶值的影響。排除這些影響,本季基礎貸款成長率為 2.6%。這一成長主要由 BCP 推動,特別是透過零售銀行業務中的抵押貸款和消費貸款以及 Mibanco。資產品質較去年同期大幅改善。不良貸款全面縮減,本季 Credicorp 的不良貸款率為 5%。

  • The cost of risk fell to a low of 1.6% on the back of fortified risk management and supported by improvements in payment performance and in the Peruvian economy. Net interest income increased 4.2%, spurred by a contraction in interest expenses after interest rates fell and low-cost deposits expanded, accounting for 57.2% of the funding base. In this context, NIM remained resilient at 6.4%. High single-digit growth was registered for other core income. Fee income increased 8.2%, boosted by transactional activity at Yape and BCP. Gains on FX transactions rose 7.9% through higher volumes at BCP. Lastly, the insurance underwriting results grew 11.2%, reflecting a stronger insurance service results in the Life business. On the efficiency front, our cost-to-income ratio stood within guidance at 44.9%.

    在加強風險管理、支付績效改善和秘魯經濟改善的推動下,風險成本降至 1.6% 的低點。淨利息收入成長 4.2%,原因是利率下降和低成本存款擴大導致利息支出收縮,佔資金基礎的 57.2%。在此背景下,淨利差仍保持 6.4% 的韌性。其他核心收入均呈現高個位數成長。受 Yape 和 BCP 交易活動的推動,費用收入增加了 8.2%。由於 BCP 交易量增加,外匯交易收益上漲 7.9%。最後,保險承保績效成長 11.2%,反映出人壽業務的保險服務績效更加強勁。在效率方面,我們的成本收入比達到指導水平,為 44.9%。

  • Next slide, please. Peru GDP growth eased to around 3% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from close to 4% in the first due to a slowdown in primary sectors and a higher comparative base from the previous year. However, domestic demand remains strong, expanding around 5% and outpacing overall GDP growth since mid-2024. This sustained momentum reflects the economy's current mid-cycle phase and ongoing support from elevated export prices. As a result, GDP expanded close to 4% over the last four quarters through the second quarter of this year, while domestic demand grew around 5%. High frequency indicators continue to signal economic dynamism underpinned by steady recovery in employment and real wages.

    請看下一張投影片。由於初級產業成長放緩以及與前一年相比基數較高,秘魯第二季 GDP 成長率年減至 3% 左右,低於第一季的近 4%。然而,國內需求依然強勁,自2024年中期以來將成長5%左右,並超過整體GDP成長。這一持續動能反映出經濟目前處於中期週期,且出口價格上漲持續提供支持。因此,截至今年第二季度,過去四個季度,GDP成長近4%,而國內需求成長約5%。高頻指標繼續顯示出經濟活力,就業和實際工資穩步復甦是其主要支撐。

  • More importantly, key proxies for private investments such as heavy-duty vehicle sales, capital goods imports and terms of trade are expanding at double-digit pace. Notably, terms of trade have reached their highest level in 75 years, driven by elevated gold, silver and copper prices, which together account for roughly half of Peru's exports. Supporting this trend, the Central Bank business expectation survey showed that investment sentiment reached a historical high in the second quarter, suggesting that private investment should strengthen.

    更重要的是,重型汽車銷售、資本貨物進口和貿易條件等私人投資的關鍵指標正在以兩位數的速度成長。值得注意的是,受黃金、白銀和銅價格上漲的推動,貿易條件已達到 75 年來的最高水平,這三種商品約佔秘魯出口的一半。支持這一趨勢的是,央行商業預期調查顯示,第二季投資情緒達到歷史高位,顯示私人投資應該會加強。

  • Furthermore, the favorable low inflation environment continues to support recovery in private consumption. Hence, Peru's economy is expected to grow above 3% this year with domestic demand rising around 4.5%, which would represent the higher growth rate in 12 years, excluding the post-pandemic rebound. On the external front, elevated global uncertainty persists. Regarding President Trump's announcement of copper tariffs, the direct impact on Peru is expected to be very limited as copper input materials are not subject to the 50% tariffs.

    此外,有利的低通膨環境繼續支持私人消費復甦。因此,預計今年秘魯經濟將成長3%以上,國內需求將成長4.5%左右,這將是12年來的最高成長率(不包括疫情後的反彈)。從外部來看,全球不確定性依然存在。關於川普總統宣布的銅關稅,由於銅輸入材料不受50%關稅的影響,預計對秘魯的直接影響將非常有限。

  • Next slide, please. The Federal Reserve has kept the policy rate stable throughout the year with dovish signals emerging from a minority of its members. Chairman Powell has continued to communicate a cautious approach towards lowering rates. Given the slowdown of the labor market, Fed futures are now pricing between two and three rate cuts this year. President -- sorry, persistent uncertainty surrounding President Trump's announcement continues to contribute to the unpredictability of the external environment. In Peru, annual inflation has remained below 2% for seven consecutive months, which constitutes one of the lowest trends for both advanced and emerging economies.

    請看下一張投影片。聯準會全年維持政策利率穩定,少數委員發出鴿派訊號。鮑威爾主席繼續傳達對降低利率的謹慎態度。鑑於勞動市場放緩,聯準會期貨目前預計今年將降息兩到三次。總統先生——抱歉,圍繞川普總統聲明的持續不確定性繼續加劇了外部環境的不可預測性。秘魯的年通膨率已連續七個月維持在2%以下,無論在已開發經濟體或新興經濟體中,都屬於最低水準之一。

  • The Central Bank has slowed the pace of rate cuts as it approaches its neutral level, making its last cut in May when it dropped the rate 25 basis points to 4.5%. In Colombia, inflation has slowed to 4.9% year-over-year in July, which remains above the upper bound of the target range of 4%. Inflation concerns and fiscal challenges have led the Central Bank to maintain a cautious stance. In Chile, the Central Bank cut its rates to 4.75% during its last meeting after holding its policy rate stable throughout 2025. The move came as inflation eased to 4.1% year-over-year in June, the lowest level since September of last year. A rate cut appears unlikely in the next meeting, given that inflation accelerated in July.

    隨著利率接近中性水平,央行已放慢降息步伐,上一次降息是在5月份,當時將利率下調25個基點至4.5%。哥倫比亞7月通膨率年減至4.9%,仍高於4%的目標區間上限。通膨擔憂和財政挑戰導致央行保持謹慎立場。智利央行在2025年全年維持政策利率穩定後,上次會議將利率下調至4.75%。這項措施推出之際,6月通膨率年減至4.1%,為去年9月以來的最低水準。鑑於七月通膨加速,下次會議降息的可能性不大。

  • Next slide, please. BCP registered a strong ROE of 30.9%, which reflects resilient margins, diversification of income and a low level of cost of risk. This result includes a 2 percentage points impact of a significant gain realized on the investment portfolio. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, total loans measured in quarter end balances rose 1.4% or 2.5% in FX-neutral terms. Growth was mainly driven by Retail Banking, which grew 2%, driven by mortgages and consumer loans. The Wholesale Banking portfolio,

    請看下一張投影片。BCP 的 ROE 高達 30.9%,反映出其利潤率的穩健、收入的多樣化以及較低的風險成本。這一結果包括投資組合實現的 2 個百分點的大幅收益影響。與上一季相比,以季末餘額衡量的貸款總額增加了 1.4%,剔除匯率因素則增加了 2.5%。成長主要由零售銀行業務推動,零售銀行業務成長 2%,主要得益於抵押貸款和消費貸款。批發銀行業務組合,

  • which is volatile due to the nature of its short-term loans, increased 0.8%. The growth recorded in middle market banking was almost completely offset by the contraction registered in corporate banking.

    由於其短期貸款的性質,其波動性較大,增長了 0.8%。中型市場銀行業務的成長幾乎完全被企業銀行業務的萎縮所抵消。

  • NIM stood at 6% due to an improvement in the asset mix and a drop in the funding cost. NPL volumes fell 2.2%, mainly driven by Wholesale Banking. In Retail Banking, NPL volumes remained relatively stable, both in individuals and SMEs. Provisions contracted 4.8%, driven mainly by an improvement in payment performance in Wholesale Banking. In Retail Banking, provisions in individuals dropped slightly due to risk model calibrations. This evolution was partially offset by growth in provisions in SME-Pyme following an uptick in disbursement of lower ticket, higher-yield loans. The cost of risk registered a low 1.2%, impacted by initiatives this year to shore up risk management and bolstered by favorable macro conditions in Peru.

    由於資產組合改善及融資成本下降,淨利差達 6%。不良貸款量下降 2.2%,主要受企業銀行業務的影響。在零售銀行業務中,個人和中小企業的不良貸款量保持相對穩定。撥備減少 4.8%,主要由於企業銀行業務支付績效的提升。在零售銀行業務中,由於風險模型校準,個人貸款撥備略有下降。由於低利、高收益貸款發放量增加,SME-Pyme 撥備的成長部分抵消了這一變化。風險成本較低,為 1.2%,這受到今年加強風險管理措施的影響,並受到秘魯有利的宏觀條件的推動。

  • In this context, BCP's risk-adjusted NIM stood at 5.2%. Other core income rose 16.4%, fueled primarily by gains on FX transactions as volumes rose via debt pricing strategies and market volatility. Moreover, fee income rose on the tails of solid transactional levels. Other noncore income this quarter includes a relevant gain on securities of PEN106 million, driven by a sovereign bond exchange that extended the duration of the investment portfolio. From a year-over-year perspective, I would like to highlight the following dynamics. Loans in quarter end balances remained relatively stable given that 2.1% growth in Retail Banking was offset by a 2.4% contraction in Wholesale Banking, which reflects depreciation in the dollar-denominated portfolio.

    在此背景下,BCP 的風險調整後淨利差為 5.2%。其他核心收入成長 16.4%,主要得益於債務定價策略和市場波動導致外匯交易量增加帶來的收益。此外,隨著交易水準的穩健成長,手續費收入也隨之增加。本季的其他非核心收入包括 1.06 億秘魯索爾的相關證券收益,這得益於主權債券交換延長了投資組合的期限。從年比來看,我想強調以下動態。由於零售銀行業務 2.1% 的增長被批發銀行業務 2.4% 的收縮所抵消(這反映了以美元計價的投資組合的貶值),因此季度末餘額的貸款保持相對穩定。

  • In FX-neutral terms, Retail and Wholesale Banking drove average growth of 2.6% in BCP's portfolio. NPLs contracted across all BCP segments, primarily in Wholesale and SME-Pyme. In the case of individuals, NPLs fell due to debt cancellations on the back of higher liquidity and due to an improvement in loan origination and debt collections management. NIM remained resilient, bolstered by a downward trend in the funding costs. The cost of risk fell across Retail Banking segments as payment performance improved due to a greater share of lower risk vintages within the loan portfolio, supported by a strengthening economic backdrop.

    以外匯中立角度來看,零售和批發銀行業務推動 BCP 投資組合平均成長 2.6%。所有 BCP 部門的不良貸款均有所減少,主要是批發和 SME-Pyme 部門。就個人而言,不良貸款減少是由於流動性增加導致債務取消,以及貸款發放和債務催收管理得到改善。受融資成本下降趨勢的推動,淨利差維持韌性。在經濟情勢改善的推動下,貸款組合中低風險貸款佔比增加,償付能力改善,零售銀行業務的風險成本隨之下降。

  • The efficiency ratio stood at 38% for the first half of the year. Growth in operating expenses was spurred by an uptick in provisions for variable compensation, which rose alongside stronger business performance and initiatives to hire digital talent for strategic projects. The ratio for other core income to assets accelerated its upward trend, reflecting the positive impact of initiatives to diversify BCP's income streams. Strong fees and FX gains results contributed to this acceleration.

    上半年效率比率為38%。營業費用的成長是由於浮動薪酬撥備增加所致,而浮動薪酬撥備隨著業務表現的增強以及為戰略項目聘用數位人才的舉措而增加。其他核心收入與資產之比加速上升,反映出BCP收入來源多元化措施的正面影響。強勁的費用和外匯收益結果促成了這一加速。

  • Next slide, please. Yape continues to lead Peru's digital financial services landscape with nearly 15 million monthly active users at the end of the second quarter. This figure is equivalent to 75% of the economically active population. With consistent quarterly growth over 0.5 million users, Yape remains on track to meet its 2026 target of 16.5 million monthly active users. User engagement remains robust with an average of 54.5 monthly transactions and 2.7 functionalities used per user, signaling deeper adoption of the apps ecosystem. Monetization and operating leverage continued to strengthen, where revenue per monthly active user reached PEN6.5, while expenses per monthly active user stood at PEN4.4 as an increasingly larger share of users contributed to revenue generation. Payments remains the primary revenue driver, fueled by growth in the average ticket in bill payments.

    請看下一張投影片。Yape 持續引領秘魯的數位金融服務領域,截至第二季末,每月活躍用戶近 1,500 萬人。這一數字相當於經濟活動人口的75%。Yape 用戶每季持續成長超過 50 萬,預計 2026 年每月活躍用戶數達到 1,650 萬的目標。用戶參與度依然強勁,平均每個用戶每月進行 54.5 次交易,使用 2.7 個功能,這表明應用程式生態系統的採用程度更高。貨幣化和營運槓桿繼續加強,其中每月活躍用戶收入達到 6.5 秘魯索爾,而每月活躍用戶支出為 4.4 秘魯索爾,因為越來越多的用戶為創收做出了貢獻。支付仍然是主要的收入驅動力,這得益於帳單支付平均金額的成長。

  • However, lending has emerged as the fastest-growing segment, now serving 3 million users and accounting for 18% of Yape's total revenue. This growth reflects an uptick in loan disbursements driven by heightened effectiveness in lead conversion. The launch of SME loans in June marks a strategic move into higher-value long-term credit products. By the end of the second quarter, Yape's revenue had doubled year-over-year to represent 5.5% of Credicorp's risk-adjusted revenue. Yape remains focused on deepening user engagement, scaling monetization and enhancing its value proposition as it advances financial inclusion. Notably, nearly 30% of Yape loans recipients access their first loan in the formal financial system through the platform.

    然而,借貸已成為成長最快的部分,目前服務 300 萬用戶,佔 Yape 總收入的 18%。這一增長反映了由於潛在客戶轉換效率的提高而導致的貸款發放量的上升。6 月推出的中小企業貸款標誌著該行向更高價值長期信貸產品邁出的策略一步。截至第二季末,Yape 的營收年增了一倍,佔 Credicorp 風險調整後營收的 5.5%。Yape 在推動金融包容性的同時,仍將專注於深化用戶參與度、擴大貨幣化規模和增強其價值主張。值得注意的是,近30%的Yape貸款得主透過該平台獲得了正規金融體系中的首筆貸款。

  • Next slide, please. Ongoing economic recovery is positively impacting the Microfinance sector in Peru. In this context, Mibanco's profitability continued to rise and stood at 16.3% this quarter, supported by a rebound in loan disbursements in recent quarters, strengthen credit risk management and effective interest rate strategies. I would like to highlight key quarter-over-quarter dynamics. Loans grew 2.1% in quarter-end balances, mainly driven by a drop in write-offs after more stringent origination guidelines were instituted one year ago. The NPL ratio fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to stand at 6.1%, in line with pre-pandemic levels. NIM rose to a peak of 14.4%, its highest level since before the pandemic, boosted by a shift in the mix towards small ticket, higher-yield loans. In parallel, the cost of risk rose 25 basis points to stand at 5.4%, while risk-adjusted NIM situated at 10.3%.

    請看下一張投影片。持續的經濟復甦對秘魯的小額信貸產業產生了積極影響。在此背景下,米班科的獲利能力持續上升,本季達到 16.3%,這得益於最近幾季貸款發放的反彈、加強信用風險管理和有效的利率策略。我想強調季度環比變化的關鍵動態。貸款季度末餘額增加了 2.1%,主要原因是一年前實施了更嚴格的貸款發放準則後,貸款注銷量下降。不良貸款率連續第四季度下降,至6.1%,與疫情前水準持平。淨利差升至 14.4% 的峰值,為疫情爆發前的最高水平,這得益於貸款組合向小額、高收益貸款的轉變。同時,風險成本上升 25 個基點至 5.4%,而風險調整後的淨利差為 10.3%。

  • From a year-over-year perspective, the decrease in the cost of funding, coupled with our active loan pricing management helped sustain the strong NIM. The cost of risk fell 217 basis points as lower risk vintages continue to gain traction and now account for 70% of total loans. Operating expenses remained under control and efficiency stood at 52.4% for the first half of the year. In this context, Mibanco's first half contribution to ROE was 15.1%, transitioning towards our target for a sustainable ROE in the low 20s. Mibanco Colombia's results continued to pick up on the back of measures taken last year and also reflecting an improvement in the economic environment for the Microfinance sector. Growth is currently steady and risk is controlled and the operations reported 11.1% profitability at the quarter end versus losses at the same point last year.

    從年比角度來看,融資成本的下降,加上我們積極的貸款定價管理,有助於維持強勁的淨利差。由於低風險貸款繼續受到青睞,目前佔貸款總額的 70%,風險成本下降了 217 個基點。上半年營運費用維持可控,效率達52.4%。在此背景下,Mibanco 上半年對 ROE 的貢獻為 15.1%,正在向我們設定的 20% 出頭的可持續 ROE 目標邁進。在去年採取的措施的推動下,哥倫比亞米班科銀行的業績持續回升,同時也反映出小額信貸產業經濟環境的改善。目前成長穩定,風險得到控制,本季末的營運獲利率為 11.1%,去年同期則為虧損。

  • Next slide, please. At Grupo Pacifico, insurance underwriting results remained strong this quarter, supported by solid operational dynamics in both the P&C and Life businesses with ROE standing at 21.1%. On a quarterly basis, net income rose 23%. Insurance underwriting results rose 27% on the back of a decrease in insurance service expenses in the Life business, which was driven by a drop in claims in credit life and disability and survivorship. The net loss on securities dropped in line with a lower impact of credit downgrades on a couple of assets in the investment portfolio this quarter.

    請看下一張投影片。在 Grupo Pacifico,本季保險承保業績依然強勁,得益於財產險和意外險以及人壽保險業務的穩健營運動力,ROE 達到 21.1%。按季度計算,淨收入成長了23%。由於信用壽險、殘障險和生存險索賠金額下降,人壽保險業務的保險服務費用下降,保險承保業績增加了 27%。本季度,證券淨損失有所下降,因為信用評級下調對投資組合中幾項資產的影響較小。

  • On a year-over-year basis, net income rose 16%, primarily due to the full consolidation of corporate health insurance and medical services operations. Insurance underwriting results increased across both Life and P&C businesses, particularly through lower claims in individual life and credit life in the former and cars and personal life in the latter. These impacts were partially offset by an increase in the net loss on securities, which was impacted by credit downgrades on a couple of assets in the investment portfolio.

    與去年同期相比,淨收入成長了 16%,這主要得益於企業健康保險和醫療服務業務的全面合併。人壽保險和財產及意外保險業務的承保業績均有所增長,特別是前者個人人壽保險和信用人壽保險的索賠減少,後者汽車保險和個人人壽保險的索賠減少。這些影響被證券淨損失的增加部分抵消,而證券淨損失受到投資組合中幾項資產信用評級下調的影響。

  • Next slide, please. Profitability of our Investment Management and advisory business remained resilient this quarter with ROE standing at 15.5%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, core income-generating businesses delivered strong results this quarter, reflecting favorable treasury performance, improved capital markets activity, particularly in the trading unit and continued growth in Wealth Management with AUMs in U.S. dollars up 6%. However, this solid business momentum was offset by a temporary increase in operating expenses due to a low base in the first quarter, resulting in a 6% decline in net income. On a year-over-year basis, net income decreased by 20%, mainly due to the absence of last year's one-off income from our now discontinued corporate finance business. Nevertheless, stronger treasury performance and lower tax expenses helped partially offset the impact.

    請看下一張投影片。本季度,我們的投資管理和諮詢業務的獲利能力保持強勁,ROE 為 15.5%。與上一季相比,核心創收業務本季業績強勁,反映出良好的財務表現、資本市場活動的改善(尤其是交易部門)以及財富管理的持續增長(以美元計算的資產管理規模增長了 6%)。然而,這一穩健的業務動能因第一季基數較低導致的營運費用暫時增加而被抵消,導致淨收入下降6%。與去年同期相比,淨收入下降了 20%,主要是因為去年我們不再從事企業融資業務,因此失去了一次性收入。儘管如此,更強勁的財務業績和更低的稅收支出有助於部分抵消影響。

  • Next slide, please. Now I would like to review Credicorp's consolidated evolution. As we mentioned earlier, we revalued Bolivia's balance sheet once again this quarter, leading to a contraction in Credicorp's balance sheet. I will now focus on explaining the underlying quarter-over-quarter dynamics. The yield on interest-earning assets increased 21 basis points due to a shift in the interest- earning asset mix. On the liability side, a more expensive deposit mix led the funding cost to increase 2 basis points. On a year-over- year basis, interest-earning asset yield fell 27 basis points, driven by market interest rate dynamics and by a decrease in loans share of the asset structure. On the liability side, the drop in market interest rates and the lower cost funding structure drove a 42 basis points reduction in funding costs. In this context, NIM remained resilient and stood at 6.42%, increasing 9 basis points. Going forward, loan growth, particularly in retail segments, should help us sustain resilient NIM despite lower interest rates.

    請看下一張投影片。現在我想回顧一下 Credicorp 的合併演進。正如我們之前提到的,本季我們再次重新評估了玻利維亞的資產負債表,導致 Credicorp 的資產負債表萎縮。我現在將重點解釋潛在的季度環比動態。生息資產收益率因生息資產結構調整而上升21個基點。負債方面,存款成本增加導致融資成本上升2個基點。受市場利率變動及貸款在資產結構中佔比下降影響,生息資產收益率較去年同期下降27個基點。負債方面,市場利率下降及低成本融資結構帶動融資成本下降42個基點。在此背景下,NIM保持堅挺,達到6.42%,增加了9個基點。展望未來,貸款成長(尤其是零售領域的貸款成長)應有助於我們在利率較低的情況下維持穩健的淨利差。

  • Next slide, please. Moving on to loan portfolio quality. Asset quality showed slight further improvement this quarter as NPL volumes continue to contract across segments, falling to levels below those reported two years ago prior to the 2023 recession. Amid ongoing economic recovery, provisions have dropped over the past 12 months due to an improvement in payment performance and successful risk management measures at both BCP and Mibanco. The positive impact of these improvements exceeded expectations, which kept provisioning levels low once again this quarter. In this context, the NPL coverage ratio rose and stood at 109.5%. Going forward, we will continue to accelerate retail origination and manage risk in parallel. We expect the cost of risk to rise but remaining within our appetite.

    請看下一張投影片。繼續討論貸款組合品質。本季資產品質略有改善,各部門不良貸款金額持續縮減,降至兩年前 2023 年經濟衰退前的水準以下。在持續的經濟復甦中,由於 BCP 和 Mibanco 的支付表現改善以及成功的風險管理措施,過去 12 個月的撥備有所下降。這些改進的正面影響超出了預期,使得本季的撥備水準再次保持在較低水準。在此背景下,不良貸款撥備覆蓋率上升至109.5%。展望未來,我們將持續加速零售業務的開展,並同時管理風險。我們預計風險成本將會上升,但仍在我們的承受範圍內。

  • Next slide, please. Moving on to core income. We recorded a 5.3% year-over-year increase. First, net interest income rose 4.2%, supported by lower interest expenses on an improved funding mix. Second, other core income grew 8.1%, fueled by fee income through Yape and core transactional activities and by gains on FX transactions. We continue to set new highs in our risk-adjusted NIM, reaching 5.44% this quarter, a 104 basis points increase year-over-year, driven by resilient NIM and a lower cost of risk. The efficiency ratio for the first half of the year stood within guidance at 44.9%. Operating expenses grew 11.4%, fueled primarily by core businesses at BCP and by investments in our innovation portfolio. Growth in core expenses at BCP was driven mainly by provisioning for variable compensation and higher IT expenses. Expenses for our innovation portfolio rose 15%, led by Yape, Tenpo and Culqi, which represented 83% of disruptive expenses in the first half of this year.

    請看下一張投影片。轉向核心收入。我們實現了 5.3% 的同比增長。首先,由於資金結構改善導致利息支出減少,淨利息收入增加 4.2%。其次,其他核心收入成長 8.1%,這得益於 Yape 和核心交易活動的費用收入以及外匯交易收益。我們的風險調整後淨利差 (NIM) 繼續創下新高,本季達到 5.44%,較去年同期成長 104 個基點,這得益於 NIM 的韌性和風險成本的降低。上半年效率比率達44.9%,符合預期。營運費用成長了 11.4%,主要得益於 BCP 的核心業務和創新組合的投資。BCP 核心支出的成長主要得益於浮動薪酬撥備和更高的 IT 支出。我們的創新組合費用上漲了 15%,其中 Yape、Tenpo 和 Culqi 表現最為出色,佔今年上半年顛覆性支出的 83%。

  • Next slide, please. ROE for the quarter stood at 20.7%, driven by strong results across all our businesses. Meanwhile, ROE for the semester was 20.9%, supported by solid business performance and bolstered by an extraordinary gain from the Banmedica transaction last quarter. If we adjust for this transaction, recurring ROE is 20% for the semester. This quarter, the recurring net income reached a record high as we leveraged a differentiated funding structure and low cost of risk. More importantly, we continue to strengthen revenue streams beyond lending while advancing our transition towards a more diversified and resilient business model.

    請看下一張投影片。本季的 ROE 達到 20.7%,這得益於我們所有業務的強勁業績。同時,本學期的 ROE 為 20.9%,這得益於穩健的業務表現以及上個季度 Banmedica 交易的非凡收益。如果我們根據這筆交易進行調整,本學期的經常性 ROE 為 20%。本季度,由於我們利用差異化的融資結構和低風險成本,經常性淨收入創下歷史新高。更重要的是,我們持續加強貸款以外的收入來源,同時推動更多元化和更有彈性的商業模式轉型。

  • As we communicated earlier this week, the full amount specified in the SUNAT resolutions against Grupo Credito announced on June 30 has been canceled. This payment totaled almost PEN1.6 billion for alleged and paid income tax and associated interest. This has not changed our stance in this case. We reaffirm our decision to exercise all legal rights available to challenge the resolutions as we consider them unfounded. We are confident in a favorable outcome and continue to assess the contingency as we (inaudible). Hence, no expense provisions have been deemed necessary. The payment does not affect the operations of our subsidiaries. However, it will impact cash flow at the Credicorp level. Consequently, we do not anticipate issuing extraordinary dividends this year.

    正如我們本週稍早所通報的,6 月 30 日宣布的針對 Grupo Credito 的 SUNAT 決議中指定的全部金額已被取消。這筆款項總計近16億秘魯索爾,用於支付所謂的所得稅和相關利息。這並沒有改變我們對此案的立場。我們重申我們的決定,我們將行使一切合法權利來挑戰這些決議,因為我們認為這些決議毫無根據。我們對有利結果充滿信心,並將繼續評估可能發生的情況。(聽不清楚)。因此,無需提列任何費用。該付款不會影響我們子公司的營運。然而,它會影響 Credicorp 層面的現金流。因此,我們預計今年不會發放特別股利。

  • Now I will move on to our guidance. Next slide, please. As previously stated, our GDP growth expectation remains unchanged at around 3%. We expect our loan book to grow around 6.5% year-over-year measured in end-of-period balances. This is equivalent to around 3% measured in average daily balances. These figures do not consider the impact of the revaluation of BCP Bolivia's balance sheet, but they do consider the U.S. dollar devaluation against the Peruvian sol. Amid a more dynamic economic backdrop and strengthening origination levels in the first half of this year, we expect balances growth to accelerate over the second half, driven mainly by Retail Banking at BCP and by Mibanco. The loan acceleration anticipated and the shift in the mix towards retail should support NIM while interest rates trend downward.

    現在我將繼續我們的指導。請看下一張投影片。如同之前所說,我們的GDP成長預期維持不變,約3%。我們預計,以期末餘額計算,我們的貸款帳簿將年增約 6.5%。這相當於以平均每日餘額衡量的 3% 左右。這些數字沒有考慮玻利維亞央行資產負債表重估的影響,但考慮了美元兌秘魯索爾的貶值。在今年上半年更加活躍的經濟背景和不斷加強的貸款發放水準的推動下,我們預計下半年餘額成長將會加速,主要受 BCP 和 Mibanco 零售銀行業務的推動。預期的貸款加速和向零售的商品組合轉變應該會在利率下降的同時支撐淨利差。

  • Accordingly, we expect NIM to stand in the upper end of our guidance of between 6.2% to 6.5%. Although we expect a slight increase in the cost of risk in the second half of this year due to stronger retail origination, our guidance has been updated to 1.8% to 2.2% to reflect lower-than-anticipated provisioning levels in the first half of 2025 as the positive impact of our risk management measures and improvements in macroeconomic conditions exceeded expectations. Accordingly, we are also adjusting our risk-adjusted NIM guidance upward to between 5% and 5.2%. On the efficiency front, we maintain our guidance range for 2025. Fee income is expected to grow in the low double digits this year, supported by an acceleration in economic activity and ongoing diversification of our income sources.

    因此,我們預計 NIM 將處於我們預期的 6.2% 至 6.5% 之間的上限。儘管我們預計由於零售業務增加,今年下半年風險成本將略有增加,但由於我們的風險管理措施和宏觀經濟狀況改善的正面影響超出預期,我們的指引已更新為 1.8% 至 2.2%,以反映 2025 年上半年低於預期的撥備水準。因此,我們也將風險調整後的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 指引上調至 5% 至 5.2% 之間。在效率方面,我們維持 2025 年的指導範圍。受經濟活動加速和收入來源持續多樣化的推動,預計今年費用收入將實現低兩位數成長。

  • Additionally, insurance underwriting results are expected to remain solid and relatively stable compared to 2024. We are increasing our full year ROE guidance to around 19%. This new guidance already includes extraordinary gains from the Banmedica transaction, which we estimate will have an impact of 50 basis points by year-end. This revision reflects both solid core performance and sustained discipline on the risk front. While global uncertainties remain, we believe the fundamentals are in place to support this higher level of profitability.

    此外,與 2024 年相比,保險承保業績預計將保持穩健且相對穩定。我們將全年 ROE 預期上調至 19% 左右。這項新指引已經包含了 Banmedica 交易帶來的非經常性收益,我們估計到年底這將產生 50 個基點的影響。此次修訂既反映了穩健的核心業績,也反映了風險方面的持續紀律。儘管全球不確定性依然存在,但我們相信基本面已經到位,可以支撐更高的獲利水準。

  • Finally, as Gianfranco mentioned, we are revising our long-term sustainable ROE range upwards from 18% to around 19.5%. This adjustment is primarily driven by stronger expectations of loan growth dynamics, particularly through the penetration of new higher- yielding segments, which leads to a more favorable loan mix evolution and an improvement in risk-adjusted NIM. Moreover, we are seeing enhanced expectations for fee income and gains on foreign exchange operations, largely due to increased transactional activity across our diversified business lines. These factors contribute to a more optimistic efficiency outlook compared to our previous estimates. With these comments, I would like to open the Q&A session.

    最後,正如 Gianfranco 所提到的,我們正在將長期可持續 ROE 範圍從 18% 上調至 19.5% 左右。這種調整主要是由對貸款成長動力的更強勁預期所驅動,特別是透過新的高收益領域的滲透,這導致更有利的貸款組合演變和風險調整後淨利差的改善。此外,我們對費用收入和外匯業務收益的預期有所增強,這主要是由於我們多元化業務線的交易活動增加。與我們先前的估計相比,這些因素使得效率前景更加樂觀。基於這些評論,我想開始問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    我們現在開始問答環節。(操作員指示)

  • Brian Flores, Citibank.

    花旗銀行的布萊恩‧弗洛雷斯。

  • Brian Flores - Analyst

    Brian Flores - Analyst

  • Good morning. Congratulations on the results and the new guidance. I wanted to ask you on cost of risk because I think it's a relevant improvement in your guidance. And if you could elaborate a bit on what is driving this? And also, you mentioned very recently that you're going to accelerate on retail, making the second half a bit -- in these terms, a bit riskier. But just if you could elaborate on the long term, what is making you be a bit more constructive on a lower cost of risk? I think that will be very helpful. Thank you.

    早安.祝賀取得的成果和新的指導。我想問您有關風險成本的問題,因為我認為這對您的指導來說是一個相關的改進。能否詳細說明一下造成這種情況的原因?另外,您最近提到,您將加速零售業務,從這些方面來看,這會使下半年的風險更大一些。但是,如果您可以詳細闡述長期情況,那麼是什麼讓您在降低風險成本方面更具建設性呢?我認為這將會非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Brian, I'll ask Cesar Rios to answer your questions.

    布萊恩,我會請塞薩爾·裡奧斯來回答你的問題。

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • Brian, thank you for the question. Yes. First, probably it's good to explain a little bit the results of the first half of the year. Last year, we were -- we take several measures to assure that all our portfolios are under the risk appetite. So in addition to improvement in capabilities, we restricted the origination in certain segments. As a result of all of these effects, we have had during the first part of this year, a very low cost of risk, actually below our initial expectations with one minor exception, all our portfolios are under the risk appetite. And beginning more clearly in the second quarter of this year, we started to originate higher yielding, higher risk portfolios with very -- in a successful way. So what we are anticipating in the second part of the year is to have the reflection of this improved origination in higher-yielding risk that are going to change the mix. And this trend should continue in the following years.

    布萊恩,謝謝你的提問。是的。首先,最好稍微解釋一下今年上半年的業績。去年,我們採取了多項措施來確保我們所有的投資組合都符合風險偏好。因此,除了能力的提升之外,我們也限制了某些領域的起源。由於所有這些影響,我們在今年上半年的風險成本非常低,實際上低於我們最初的預期,但有一個小例外,我們所有的投資組合都處於風險偏好之下。從今年第二季開始,我們開始以非常成功的方式創造出更高效益、風險更高的投資組合。因此,我們預計今年下半年高收益風險的起源改善將得到體現,從而改變結構。而這種趨勢在未來幾年應該會持續下去。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • And maybe Brian, just to complement Cesar's answer, bear in mind that we do not manage our portfolio based on cost of risk, but on risk-adjusted NIM, so -- which is very relevant, yes.

    也許 Brian 只是為了補充 Cesar 的回答,請記住我們不是根據風險成本來管理我們的投資組合,而是基於風險調整後的 NIM,所以 - 這是非常相關的,是的。

  • Brian Flores - Analyst

    Brian Flores - Analyst

  • No, perfect. Super clear. And then a quick follow-up on the guidance, too. You reiterated the efficiency ratio. And I think you're very efficiently becoming increasingly digital. Just if you could share what is your long-term vision on the physical branch network? Are you planning to monetize any of your prime real estate holdings? If you could elaborate if you see branches evolving to a more, I would say, transactional hub. Just how are you thinking about this in the long term? Thank you.

    不,完美。超級清晰。然後快速跟進指導。您重申了效率比率。我認為你們正非常有效率地日益數位化。您能否分享一下您對實體分支網路的長期願景?您是否計劃將您持有的任何優質房地產貨幣化?如果您可以詳細說明您是否看到分公司發展成為交易中心。長遠來看您是如何考慮這個問題的?謝謝。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Actually, Brian, this is a strategy we've started to deploy maybe 4, 5 years ago. At the peak at BCP, we reached up to -- close to 450 branches. Today, we have 300. So there's been a reduction of about one-third of the network. More importantly, I would say that the number of branches, the role of the branch has changed dramatically over the last few years from more transactional vision to more educational and commercial vision. That path will follow. I would say that the bulk of the reduction has already been done. We do not plan to be as aggressive going forward. However, the world is changing so fast that we'll see.

    事實上,布萊恩,這是我們大概四、五年前就開始實施的策略。在 BCP 的巔峰時期,我們的分店多達近 450 個。今天,我們有 300 個。因此網路減少了約三分之一。更重要的是,我想說,分支機構的數量和分支機構的作用在過去幾年中發生了巨大變化,從更多的交易視角轉變為更多的教育和商業視角。這條路將會繼續走下去。我想說,大部分削減工作已經完成。我們不打算在未來採取如此激進的行動。然而,世界變化太快,我們很快就會看到。

  • Brian Flores - Analyst

    Brian Flores - Analyst

  • No, perfect. Thank you.

    不,完美。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lindsey Shema, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的林賽謝瑪 (Lindsey Shema)。

  • Lindsey Shema - Analyst

    Lindsey Shema - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you for taking my question. Congrats on the increased guidance. Quick follow-up on cost of risk. When you think about cost of risk long term, where do you see the ratio trending? And how long should it take to get there? Could it be structurally lower? Or should it continue to kind of accelerate to your long-term range? Thank you.

    你好,謝謝你回答我的問題。恭喜您獲得了更多的指導。快速跟進風險成本。當您考慮長期風險成本時,您認為該比率趨勢如何?到那兒要多久?從結構上來說,它會更低嗎?或者它應該繼續加速到你的長期範圍?謝謝。

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thank you for the question. Once we reach, I will say, a more representative level at the end of the year, we expect for some years to increase the cost of risk based on the strategy that we are outlining. I am going to give a very simple example. Our cost of risk now is going to be around, let's say, 2%. This is a combination of Wholesale, Retail portfolios. But if we are starting to originate in higher risk portfolios, for example, only PEN1 billion portfolio that has a cost of risk of 8%, but brings a margin of 20% additionally, is going to increase 5 basis points the overall cost of risk of the portfolio, but it's going to improve significantly, 2.5 times that the profitability of the business. And that's the strategy that we are going to follow once we have stabilized the portfolio that's already happening, and we are starting to build the portfolio with new tools. So for some years, we increase the higher risk, high yielding portfolios, the overall cost of risk should increase, but with increased profitability.

    謝謝你的提問。一旦我們在年底達到更具代表性的水平,我們預計在未來幾年內,我們將根據所概述的策略增加風險成本。我將舉一個非常簡單的例子。我們現在的風險成本大約是 2%。這是批發和零售投資組合的組合。但是,如果我們開始從高風險投資組合開始,例如,只有 10 億秘魯索爾的投資組合,其風險成本為 8%,但額外帶來 20% 的利潤率,這將使投資組合的總體風險成本增加 5 個基點,但它將顯著改善,即業務盈利能力的 2.5 倍。一旦我們穩定了現有的投資組合,我們就會遵循這個策略,並開始使用新工具來建立投資組合。因此,多年來,我們增加了高風險、高收益的投資組合,整體風險成本應該會增加,但獲利能力也會增加。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Again, Lindsey, we -- the whole strategy and growth strategy actually is based on risk-adjusted NIM, as Cesar mentioned, not only on cost of risk. As a matter of fact, we also include acquisition costs and so on. But regarding the risk-adjusted NIM is how we manage it.

    再說一次,Lindsey,我們的整個策略和成長策略實際上是基於風險調整後的 NIM,正如 Cesar 所提到的,而不僅僅是基於風險成本。事實上,我們還包括收購成本等等。但關於風險調整後的淨利差,我們如何管理它。

  • Lindsey Shema - Analyst

    Lindsey Shema - Analyst

  • Thank you. If I could elaborate on that a little bit, for loan growth this year, could you break down your expectations? And then I know you switched from average balances to period end, but is the kind of better expectation, is that mostly on retail and then just segment by segment? Thank you.

    謝謝。如果我可以稍微詳細說明一下,對於今年的貸款成長,您能否細分您的預期?然後我知道您從平均餘額轉向了期末,但這是一種更好的預期,主要是針對零售,然後只是針對細分市場嗎?謝謝。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Alejandro?

    亞歷杭德羅?

  • Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

    Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, Lindsey. We made a change after conversation with a lot of investors that prefer the end-of-year balance. But we still gave the equivalent. As we mentioned during the presentation, we -- well, in the guidance, we are expecting growth end-to-end to be 6.5%, including the revaluation of the sol, which is stronger to the dollar than what we were expecting. And it does come particularly from the more retail segment, both in Mibanco and then at BCP with mortgages and consumer credit. So I mean, we're expecting most areas to grow, but those areas should be the ones picking up more. We've already seen that pickup in the last few months, and we expect that to continue and become even a little bit stronger in the next part of the year.

    是的,林賽。在與許多喜歡年終餘額的投資者交談後,我們做出了改變。但我們還是給了等價的。正如我們在演示中提到的那樣,在指導中,我們預計端到端增長率為 6.5%,其中包括索爾的重新估值,這比我們預期的對美元的匯率要強。而且它確實主要來自零售領域,包括 Mibanco 和 BCP 的抵押貸款和消費信貸。所以我的意思是,我們預計大多數地區都會成長,但這些地區應該是成長最快的。過去幾個月我們已經看到了這種回升,我們預計這種回升勢頭將持續下去,並在今年下半年變得更加強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Fernando Maloney], Autonomous Research.

    [費爾南多·馬洛尼],自主研究。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hi, everyone. It's Renato here. So just quickly on loan growth for this year. I'm wondering just thinking of the guidance from the beginning of the year and what has materialized, if you could explain a bit on the -- what diverged the most here and the adjustments you've made? And then on the long-term guidance, and congrats again for raising the guidance for this year and for the sustainable ROE. I just wonder if you could expand a little bit on the comments of the drivers for the higher guidance in the long term.

    大家好。我是雷納托。讓我們來快速回顧一下今年的貸款成長情況。我想知道,從年初的指導和目前實現的情況來看,您能否解釋一下——這裡最大的分歧是什麼以及您所做的調整?然後是長期指導,再次恭喜您提高今年的指導和可持續的 ROE。我只是想知道您是否可以稍微詳細闡述司機們對長期更高指導的評論。

  • Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

    Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

  • Sure. I mean for loan growth, as I was just mentioning, -- and tying it up to the improvement in the economy that we've been mentioning both Gianfranco and myself, really, we are seeing a very strong economy today and a much better situation for consumers. That tied to what Cesar was mentioning about our risk capabilities and our origination capabilities is basically what we expect to

    當然。我的意思是,就貸款成長而言,正如我剛才提到的,並將其與詹弗蘭科和我都提到的經濟改善聯繫起來,實際上,我們今天看到經濟非常強勁,消費者的狀況也好多了。這與 Cesar 提到的我們的風險能力和發起能力有關,基本上是我們所期望的

  • translate into higher growth in lending, in particularly, as I was saying, on the retail side and the consumer side and Microfinance side. And by the way, it's already been happening so far, I mean, in mortgages, FX neutral for the year, we've grown -- for a whole year, we've grown 6.5%, in consumer, almost 6%. So -- and we're seeing that actually pick up in the last couple of months. So we expect that to continue.

    轉化為貸款的更高成長,特別是像我所說的那樣,在零售方面、消費者方面和小額信貸方面。順便說一下,到目前為止,這種情況已經發生了,我的意思是,在抵押貸款方面,今年的外匯中性,我們已經增長了——全年,我們增長了 6.5%,在消費者方面,增長了近 6%。所以——我們看到過去幾個月這種情況確實有所回升。因此我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。

  • And with these capabilities and our distribution capabilities, and I'm tying this to the longer-term ROE to continue to access more let's say, riskier or more the consumer segment of retail with a good risk-adjusted NIM. So that is one of the main drivers for the sustainable ROE that the loan mix with a good cost of risk that translates into a better risk-adjusted NIM. And also on the fee income, we've been building a lot of different businesses and lines around that and driven by Yape, but there are other things that we're also developing that are basically important sources of growth in the coming years. And when you put those together, that's what brings us to our expected 19.5% sustainable ROE.

    憑藉這些能力和我們的分銷能力,我將其與長期 ROE 結合起來,繼續獲得更高風險或更多的零售消費者部分,並獲得良好的風險調整後的 NIM。因此,這是可持續 ROE 的主要驅動因素之一,將貸款與良好的風險成本相結合,轉化為更好的風險調整後的 NIM。至於費用收入,在 Yape 的推動下,我們一直圍繞著該收入建立許多不同的業務和產品線,但我們也在開發其他業務,這些業務基本上是未來幾年重要的成長來源。將這些因素綜合起來,我們就能實現預期的 19.5% 永續 ROE。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Maybe, Renato, just an additional comment on what Alejandro just mentioned is if you remember a few years ago, we stated like a couple of guardrails regarding how much we were going to invest in our disruptive initiatives. And one of those guardrails was up to 150 basis points of ROE. This year, 2025, that impact is going to be close to 0. And going forward, as we see it, that should be a positive. So that drag should be eliminated. Obviously, again, since the world is changing at the pace it is changing, we may have to invest or another Yape idea may come. But today, the vision we have is that the digital investments going forward from '25 onwards will generate positive ROE rather than negative ROE. And as we've mentioned before, since we've been very conservative, especially in how to register the investments we've been doing in the digital transformation initiatives, basically 100% or 90% of those investments we'd register them as expenses. So the equity part of those -- the digital investments is close to 0. It's not 0, but it's really irrelevant to the income they will generate going forward.

    也許,雷納托,關於亞歷杭德羅剛才提到的,我還有一點補充,如果你還記得的話,幾年前,我們就將在顛覆性舉措上投入多少資金制定了一些限制。其中一項限制是最高 150 個基點的 ROE。今年,也就是 2025 年,這種影響將接近 0。展望未來,我們認為這應該是一件正面的事。因此應該消除這種阻力。顯然,由於世界正在以其變化的速度發生變化,我們可能不得不進行投資,否則可能會出現另一個 Yape 想法。但今天,我們的願景是,從 25 年開始的數位投資將產生正 ROE,而不是負 ROE。正如我們之前提到的,由於我們非常保守,特別是在如何登記我們在數位轉型計劃中所做的投資方面,基本上 100% 或 90% 的投資我們會將其登記為費用。因此,其中的股權部分——數位投資接近 0。它不是 0,但它與他們未來產生的收入確實無關。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • That's very clear. Thanks very much.

    這非常清楚。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Carlos Gomez, HSBC.

    卡洛斯‧戈麥斯,匯豐銀行。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

  • Hello. Thank you. Congratulations on the results. And thank you for clarifying that the bond exchange was an extraordinary gain. Can I ask you briefly, is that after tax or before tax gain?

    你好。謝謝。恭喜你取得這樣的成績。感謝您澄清債券交換是一項非凡的收益。我可以簡單問一下,這是稅後財還是稅前盈餘?

  • Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

    Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

  • The gain, it's actually before tax, but government bonds don't have income tax. So it ends up going all the way below the line.

    這筆收益其實是稅前收入,但政府公債沒有所得稅。所以它最終會完全低於這條線。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very clear. And so I'm keeping here. My real question is about Yape. And we look at the numbers that you published, and I estimate that right now, you are showing a net income contribution of around $25 million. I could be wrong about that. How much do you think Yape can contribute this year, next year and in the future? What's the number that you are considering internally and you are talking to investors about?

    好的。這非常清楚。所以我就留在這裡。我真正的問題是關於 Yape 的。我們查看了您公佈的數據,我估計您目前的淨收入貢獻約為 2500 萬美元。我可能錯了。您認為Yape今年、明年、未來能做出多少貢獻?您內部正在考慮並與投資者討論的數字是多少?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Francesca, can you answer that?

    弗朗西斯卡,你能回答這個問題嗎?

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • The number you mentioned is correct. What we are expecting is as Yape begins to increase its loan portfolio, its contribution will be much larger. And we are expecting for the next three to five years, the goal would be for Yape to be the second largest line of business that Credicorp has, primarily due to its lending business in retail and SME segments and also its inclusion in the newer segment -- in the newer lines of business as marketplace and commerce.

    您提到的數字是正確的。我們預計,隨著 Yape 開始增加其貸款組合,其貢獻將會更大。我們預計,在未來三到五年內,Yape 將成為 Credicorp 的第二大業務線,這主要歸功於其在零售和中小企業領域的貸款業務,以及其在較新的領域——市場和商業等較新的業務線中的應用。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

  • So that will be second to -- I guess, second to BCP and therefore, larger than Pacifico. Are we talking $150 million, $200 million, $250 million?

    所以,我想,這將是僅次於 BCP 的,因此,比 Pacifico 更大。我們說的是 1.5 億美元、2 億美元還是 2.5 億美元?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • You have to do your math, Carlos. We don't disclose specific figures. You have the figure of BCP, you have the figure of Pacifico, do the math.

    你必須做數學題,卡洛斯。我們不透露具體數字。您有 BCP 的數字,您有 Pacifico 的數字,進行計算。

  • Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

    Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst

  • I'll do that. Thank you.

    我會這麼做的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alonso Aramburu, BTG

    阿隆索·阿蘭布魯,BTG

  • Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

    Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

  • Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for the call. Yes. Just following up on Yape. Can you comment on your asset quality trends at Yape? What's your cost of risk? What's your level of NPLs? And also some color on the lending, what kind of size of loans you're doing, the turn of the loans? Has that changed in the last few months? And do you have a target for how much lending should be as a percentage of revenues at Yape? Thank you.

    是的,你好,早安。謝謝您的來電。是的。只是跟進 Yape。您能評論一下Yape的資產品質趨勢嗎?你的風險成本是多少?您的不良貸款水平如何?還有關於貸款的一些細節,你們的貸款規模是多少,貸款的周轉情況如何?過去幾個月情況有變化嗎?您對 Yape 的貸款佔收入的比例有沒有什麼目標?謝謝。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Maybe I'll start and then Francesca, you can complement me. So Alonso, today, still the Yape portfolio is very small, even though we're disbursing over PEN1 million loans per month. Those -- the bulk of that is mono installment. So the duration is actually less than 30 days. What we're doing is basically, even though that business is profitable, the real target is to lend -- to learn -- sorry, to learn to lend to the best performance of those initial clients. We're building up multi-installment loan in the consumer finance business, which is growing rapidly. And we just started to do some testing in the SME market also. NPLs, I don't know, Francesca, if you have the --

    是的。也許我會開始,然後弗朗西斯卡,你可以補充我。因此,阿隆索,今天,儘管我們每月發放超過 100 萬秘魯索爾的貸款,但 Yape 的投資組合仍然很小。其中大部分是單一分期付款。所以實際持續時間不到30天。我們所做的基本上是,儘管這項業務是盈利的,但真正的目標是藉貸——學習——抱歉,是學習借貸給那些初始客戶的最佳表現。我們正在快速發展的消費金融業務中建立多期貸款。我們也剛開始在中小企業市場進行一些測試。不良貸款,我不知道,弗朗西斯卡,如果你有--

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • Low teens annualized.

    年化率低於十幾歲。

  • Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

    Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

  • Yes. And just to follow up generally on the cost of risk guidance. So is it correct that the expectation then for the second half of the year should be closer to 2% cost of risk for credit cost?

    是的。並且只是整體跟進風險指導的成本。那麼,下半年的預期信用成本風險成本應該接近 2%,這樣正確嗎?

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • The expectation for the whole year is in the range that we have stated between 1.8% to 2.2%. That implies doing the math that the second part of the year should be closer to 2% than closer to 1.6% for the reason that we have already stated.

    全年預期在我們提出的1.8%至2.2%的範圍內。這意味著,根據我們已經說明的原因,今年下半年的成長率應該更接近 2%,而不是接近 1.6%。

  • Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

    Alonso Aramburu - Analyst

  • Right, fantastic. Thank you very much.

    對,太棒了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Yuri Fernandes. JPMorgan.

    尤里·費爾南德斯。摩根大通。

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • Congrats on the quarter. I have just a question on your deposit franchise, and we see the economy in Peru doing better. And your deposits are growing way above the loans, so don't get me wrong here. But when I go to your low-cost deposits, they are down a little bit quarter-over-quarter, some 5%. So just checking if it is seasonal. On year-over-year, they are still growing. But given you have so many different verticals, I think a 4%, 5% annual growth on deposits, it could be a little bit higher, right? So just trying to understand on deposits, why it was down the low cost.

    恭喜本季取得佳績。我對您的存款特許經營權只有一個疑問,我們看到秘魯的經濟發展得更好。而且您的存款成長遠遠超過貸款成長,所以請不要誤會我的意思。但當我查看你們的低成本存款時,發現它們比上一季略有下降,大約下降了 5%。所以只是檢查它是否是季節性的。與去年同期相比,它們仍在成長。但考慮到你們有這麼多不同的垂直行業,我認為存款的年增長率為 4% 或 5%,可能會更高一些,對嗎?所以只是想了解存款方面,為什麼成本會下降。

  • And then I have a second question regarding dividends. You are generating a lot of capital. Loan growth has been a little bit like clusters. So the quarterly question on dividends, how should we think about your extraordinary dividends for this year? Thank you.

    我還有第二個問題,關於股利。你正在創造大量資本。貸款成長有點像集群。那麼關於股息的季度問題,我們該如何看待今年的特別股息?謝謝。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Yuri, it's -- what you see is seasonal regarding low-cost deposits. If you take a look at year-over-year, growth has been quite important. And I would like -- because of your question, I would like to share an information that was shared by the Central Bank this week. The usage of cash in transactions in Peru has gone from 95% of total transactions done in cash in Peru in 2013 to 64%. So that's over 30% reduction, 3,000 basis points reduction. The major driver for that decline has been the digital wallets. And the major digital wallet in Peru is Yape. Therefore, we are quite confident that the low-cost deposit growth and market share will still be there because these are great news. But if you see it, there's still two-third of the market doing transactions in cash. So there's a lot of room for growth there. That's regarding deposits.

    是的。尤里,你所看到的低成本存款有季節性。如果你看一下同比情況,你會發現成長非常重要。我想——由於您的問題,我想分享中央銀行本週分享的資訊。秘魯現金交易的使用率已從 2013 年的 95% 下降至 64%。因此,降幅超過 30%,即 3,000 個基點。造成這種下降的主要原因是數位錢包。秘魯主要的數位錢包是Yape。因此,我們非常有信心低成本存款成長和市佔率仍將存在,因為這些都是好消息。但如果你觀察一下,你會發現市場上仍有三分之二的交易是以現金進行的。因此,那裡有很大的成長空間。這是關於存款的。

  • Regarding dividends, the policy is exactly the same. We haven't changed the policy. The issue that Alejandro mentioned it during his speech, since we had to pay PEN1.6 billion, PEN1.7 billion to SUNAT, we don't have -- even though that doesn't affect our P&L, it does affect our cash position. Therefore, we won't be paying this year an extraordinary dividend in the second half of the year.

    對於股息,政策完全相同。我們沒有改變政策。亞歷杭德羅在演講中提到的問題是,由於我們必須向國家稅務局支付 16 億、17 億秘魯索爾,我們沒有——儘管這不會影響我們的損益表,但確實影響了我們的現金狀況。因此,我們今年下半年不會發放特別股利。

  • Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

    Alejandro Perez- Reyes - Chief Operating Officer

  • Maybe just to complement what Gianfranco said, that is exactly right. We -- the main impact that we're having of the SUNAT situation is actually a cash impact. We use -- the money that we expected to pay out as an extraordinary dividend is the one that we're using to pay this claim by SUNAT. What I just wanted to mention is that it doesn't change going forward our expectations for next year's ordinary dividend and ideally also extraordinary dividend. So it is just an impact on this year because it's the money that we were expecting to pay out as an extraordinary dividend.

    也許只是為了補充 Gianfranco 所說的話,這是完全正確的。我們—SUNAT 情況對我們產生的主要影響實際上是現金影響。我們使用的—我們預計將作為特別股息支付的資金是我們用來支付 SUNAT 索賠的資金。我只想說的是,這不會改變我們對明年普通股息以及理想情況下特別股息的預期。所以這只是對今年有影響,因為這是我們預計以特別股息形式支付的錢。

  • Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

    Yuri Fernandes - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you very much.

    完美的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指示)

  • Andres Soto, Santander.

    安德烈斯·索托,桑坦德。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • Good morning to all. Thank you for the presentation. The opportunity to ask questions. My first question is regarding your digital initiatives and your targets for the short term. You have mentioned this objective of these initiatives to represent 10% of revenue by 2026. I would like to understand if this target refers to the whole year, a specific quarter. You were already at 6% in the second quarter of the year. So it will be interesting to hear your thoughts on the ramp-up to get to these targets.

    大家早安。感謝您的演講。提出問題的機會。我的第一個問題是關於您的數位化計劃和短期目標。您提到這些措施的目標是到 2026 年佔收入的 10%。我想了解這個目標是指全年還是具體某個季度。今年第二季度,這一比例已達 6%。因此,聽聽您對如何實現這些目標的想法將會很有趣。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Sure. Francesca?

    當然。弗朗西斯卡?

  • Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

    Francesca Raffo - Chief Innovation Officer

  • Yes. Thank you, Andres. Our view -- our goal was 2026, 10% for the whole year. We're very confident with what we're seeing with Yape's results. And as you know, what we've shared before is that the idea around the innovation portfolio is have also initiatives graduate. So the challenge for the innovation portfolio is to continue to generate a new set of initiatives around Tenpo, around Culqi, around (inaudible). So this is the way we're viewing it. We're very confident because we have a good venture around Yape, but the work is still there. So it's on an annual basis.

    是的。謝謝你,安德烈斯。我們的觀點是——我們的目標是 2026 年,全年實現 10%。我們對 Yape 的結果非常有信心。如您所知,我們之前分享過,圍繞創新組合的想法也已啟動。因此,創新組合面臨的挑戰是繼續圍繞 Tenpo、Culqi、(聽不清楚)。這就是我們看待它的方式。我們非常有信心,因為我們在 Yape 周圍有一個很好的冒險,但工作仍然存在。所以這是按年計算的。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • That's clear. Thank you, Francesca. My second question is regarding the new medium-term ROE target of 19.5%. It was very helpful your comment, Gianfranco, that this partially reflects the -- not considering the traction that you are getting from digital initiatives, which already broke even. But it looks like it's still a conservative one, considering that as they start to ramp up, they will actually contribute to profitability, and they will take your ROE to even higher levels. So what prevents you to get a more ambitious target for your sustainable ROE? That will be the point number one. Point number two, you mentioned that part of what we are seeing here is better risk-adjusted NIM, higher fee contribution leading to better efficiency. In the past, you used to have an efficiency target tied to this 18% medium-term ROE. What is your new efficiency target in this new objective?

    這很清楚。謝謝你,弗朗西斯卡。我的第二個問題是關於新的中期 ROE 目標 19.5%。詹弗蘭科,你的評論非常有幫助,這部分反映了——沒有考慮到你從數位化舉措中獲得的牽引力,而這些舉措已經實現收支平衡。但它看起來仍然是一個保守的策略,因為隨著它們開始加速,它們實際上會對盈利能力做出貢獻,並將您的 ROE 提升到更高的水平。那麼,是什麼阻礙了您實現更宏偉的永續 ROE 目標呢?這是第一點。第二點,您提到我們在這裡看到的部分情況是更好的風險調整後的淨利差、更高的費用貢獻帶來了更好的效率。過去,你曾經有一個與 18% 的中期 ROE 掛鉤的效率目標。在這個新目標中,您的新效率目標是什麼?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Maybe let me take the efficiency question, and then I'll pass it to Alejandro. And you may comment the impact on the (inaudible). First of all, the efficiency ratio with these new ventures growing at a much faster pace than the incumbent is tricky because yes, they start to become profitable, but their efficiency ratio is much higher than the efficiency ratio the incumbents have. So the more Yape grows, the more inefficient we become. Obviously, at some point in time, Yape's efficiency ratio should be much lower than, I don't know, the BCP's efficiency ratio. It's not the situation today. That happens with a lot of the -- most of the new ventures were deploying. That's the main reason for efficiency ratio.

    是的。也許讓我來回答效率問題,然後我會把它交給亞歷杭德羅。你也可以評論對(聽不清楚)。首先,這些新企業的成長速度比現有企業快得多,其效率比率是一個棘手的問題,因為它們確實開始獲利,但它們的效率比率比現有企業的效率比率高得多。因此,Yape 越發展,我們的效率就越低。顯然,在某個時間點,Yape 的效率比率應該比 BCP 的效率比率低得多,我不知道。今天的情況並非如此。這種情況在許多新企業部署時都會發生。這是效率比率的主要原因。

  • Obviously, we keep investing in running the business and also in the transformation, as I mentioned. And also, as I mentioned before, the bulk of what we've done in terms of investments in the digital transformation, mostly in the new ventures, we've registered them as expenses. So that's how -- it's like we've been front-loading expenses. And going forward, there's a trade-off, right? So as we are successful, digital initiatives will grow, but deteriorate the cost-to-income ratio. But at the same time, since they become profitable, the ROE impact shouldn't be negative, as I explained before. I don't know if I made it clear.

    顯然,正如我所提到的,我們將繼續投資於業務營運和轉型。而且,正如我之前提到的,我們在數位轉型方面的投資,主要是新業務的投資,大部分都記為費用。就是這樣——就像我們一直在預先支付費用一樣。而展望未來,總有一個權衡,對吧?因此,隨著我們的成功,數位化計劃將會成長,但成本收入比將會下降。但同時,由於它們開始獲利,因此 ROE 的影響不應該是負面的,正如我之前解釋的那樣。我不知道我是否表達清楚了。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • That's clear, Gianfranco. But what I would like to get here is if the number that you're putting as mid-term target is probably conservative considering this math that you described and to the point of the guardrails that you used to have, are they still valid? Are you still operating under the assumption that the disruptive initiatives are going to take away 300 basis points of efficiency and 150 basis points of ROE? Or this is something that we -- that you are going to be --

    很清楚,詹弗蘭科。但我想問的是,考慮到您所描述的數學計算以及您以前設定的護欄,您提出的中期目標數字可能有些保守,那麼這些數字是否仍然有效?您是否仍認為顛覆性措施將導致效率降低 300 個基點、ROE 降低 150 個基點?或者這是我們——你將要--

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Again, 150 basis point impact, as a matter of fact, this year is going to be, let's say, 0. So that's not a negative. It won't be a drag this year after -- starting from 2026 onwards should be positive. That's the ROE answer. The cost-to-income answer, the efficiency ratio is another answer because, as I mentioned, concretely Yape. Yape is profitable now, but the cost to income of Yape is not 40- something percent. It's much more. The larger Yape becomes, the more that "Negative impact" on cost to income has. Going forward, that may change and end up Yape being more -- much more efficient than, let's say, BCP. And in that case, the cost-to-income ratio will decrease also.

    是的。再說一次,150 個基點的影響,事實上,今年將會是 0。所以這並不是什麼壞事。今年之後不會再有拖累——從 2026 年開始應該是積極的。這就是 ROE 的答案。成本收入比答案、效率比率是另一個答案,因為正如我所提到的,具體來說是 Yape。雅培目前是獲利的,但是雅培的成本收入比並沒有達到40%左右。還有很多。Yape 越大,對成本收入的「負面影響」就越大。展望未來,這種情況可能會發生變化,最終 Yape 會比 BCP 更有效率。在這種情況下,成本收入比也會下降。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • And that is fundamentally a function of lending, I suppose.

    我想,這從根本上來說是一種借貸功能。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Yes. So the growth -- the major source of income growth for Yape, marginal income growth for Yape for the upcoming years is what we expect the lending business is going to become. Yes.

    是的。是的。因此,我們預期貸款業務將成為 Yape 未來幾年營收成長的主要來源、Yape 的邊際收入成長。是的。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • And Francesca probably mentioned this before, the three- to five-year period for the ramp-up. Is this still a valid time frame? Or when are you expecting to accelerate Yape lending when those testing loans are going to start to become multi-installment and larger loans?

    弗朗西斯卡可能之前提到過這一點,即三到五年的提升期。這仍然是一個有效的時間框架嗎?或者,當那些測試貸款開始變成多期和更大額度的貸款時,您預計何時會加速 Yape 貸款?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • They're already multi-installment, but you know us very well, Andres, we're conservative. So we're not going to bet the house, going to grow dramatically the portfolio. We feel very comfortable with what we're doing, both regarding risk -- cost of risk, I mean, and growth. The more comfortable we become and the faster we will deploy the whole strategy. We do not have an answer -- specific answer today on when we will achieve what we're doing --

    他們已經是多期了,但安德烈斯,你很了解我們,我們很保守。因此,我們不會孤注一擲,而是大幅增加投資組合。我們對自己所做的事情感到非常滿意,無論是風險——我的意思是風險成本,還是成長。我們越舒服,就能越快部署整個戰略。我們今天還沒有答案——具體回答我們什麼時候能實現我們正在做的事情--

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • And if you focus on the nature of this client, it's an exploratory business at the beginning. We deploy pilots. We monitor the pilots. When we discover a specific segment that performed particularly well, we scale that. In these cases, we can be scaling up certain parts of the portfolio rapidly, but subject to have discovered profitable segments. So it's a discovery process, and we have great expectation, but it's a discovery process.

    如果你專注於這個客戶的性質,那麼一開始它就是一項探索性業務。我們部署飛行員。我們監視飛行員。當我們發現某個特定部分錶現特別好時,我們就會對其進行擴展。在這些情況下,我們可以迅速擴大投資組合的某些部分,但前提是必須發現有利可圖的部分。所以這是一個發現的過程,我們有很大期望,但這是一個發現的過程。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • Thank you, Cesar. How -- what percentage of Yape borrowers are already in a multi-installment scheme?

    謝謝你,塞薩爾。如何-有多少比例的 Yape 借款人已經採用了多期分期付款計劃?

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Do you have that figure?

    你有這個數字嗎?

  • Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

    Cesar Rios - Chief Financial Officer

  • Today, they are 50-50. Not the number -- you're right, not the number of clients, but the balance is --

    如今,雙方的勝負比例是 50-50。不是數量——你說得對,不是客戶數量,而是平衡--

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Because again, Andres, since the mono installment loans are mono installment, the maturity -- sorry, the duration is less than one month. So you have to work a lot to maintain the balance. That is going to shift dramatically in the upcoming years.

    因為,安德烈斯,由於單一分期貸款是單一分期,所以到期日 - 抱歉,期限少於一個月。所以你必須付出很多努力來保持平衡。未來幾年,這種情況將會發生巨大變化。

  • Andres Soto - Analyst

    Andres Soto - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you guys. Congratulations on the results.

    完美的。謝謝你們。恭喜你取得這樣的成績。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • It appears there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

    目前似乎沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給執行長 Gianfranco Ferrari 先生,請他致最後一次發言。

  • Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

    Gianfranco Piero Dario Ferrari De Las - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, and thank you all for your questions. Q2 2025 was another quarter of solid execution at Credicorp. Momentum in the economy, our business and our innovation agenda give us the confidence for the rest of the year and beyond. Fee income is scaling. Digital engagement is deepening. Great demand is returning. And we're delivering value consistently even amid regulatory uncertainty.

    謝謝大家,也謝謝大家的提問。2025 年第二季是 Credicorp 又一個表現穩健的季度。經濟、業務和創新議程的強勁勢頭讓我們對今年剩餘時間及以後充滿信心。費用收入正在擴大。數位化參與正在加深。巨大的需求正在回歸。即使在監管不確定的情況下,我們仍能持續提供價值。

  • As I noted earlier, we operate in a more supportive environment but are not dependent on it. Our platform performs through volatility and is now better positioned to capture upside more effectively. In this context, we've revised our long-term sustainable ROE upward from around 18% to approximately 19.5%, reflecting the benefits of a more diversified inclusive business model as we expand into new segments and broaden our addressable market.

    正如我之前提到的,我們在一個更具支持性的環境中開展業務,但我們不依賴它。我們的平台能夠在波動中運行,現在可以更有效地捕捉上行潛力。在此背景下,我們將長期可持續股本回報率從約 18% 上調至約 19.5%,這反映了隨著我們向新的領域擴張和拓寬潛在市場,更加多元化的包容性商業模式帶來的好處。

  • Our strategy will drive higher risk-adjusted NIM through a more retail-oriented loan portfolio while increasing transactional and noninterest income from our disruptive initiatives. These drivers will accelerate income growth, enhance efficiency and strengthen our ability to deliver sustainable returns. Looking ahead, I invite you to join us on October 9 in New York for our Investor Day, where we'll share how Credicorp is positioning to lead the next chapter of Latin American finance. We look forward to seeing many of you there. Thank you for your continued trust.

    我們的策略將透過更面向零售的貸款組合來提高風險調整後的淨利差,同時透過我們的顛覆性措施來增加交易收入和非利息收入。這些驅動因素將加速收入成長、提高效率並增強我們提供可持續回報的能力。展望未來,我邀請您於 10 月 9 日參加我們在紐約舉行的投資者日活動,屆時我們將分享 Credicorp 如何引領拉丁美洲金融的下一篇章。我們期待在那裡見到你們。感謝您一直以來的信任。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝各位,女士們、先生們。今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。