BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD (BAM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to today's program entitled Brookfield Asset Management 2020 Year-End Results Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，並歡迎參加今天題為 Brookfield Asset Management 2020 年終業績電話會議和網絡直播的節目。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Suzanne Fleming, Managing Partner, Brookfield Asset Management. Please go ahead.

我現在想介紹一下今天的節目主持人，Brookfield Asset Management 的執行合夥人 Suzanne Fleming。請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Brookfield's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2020 Conference Call. On the call today are Bruce Flatt, our Chief Executive Officer; Nick Goodman, our Chief Financial Officer; and Adrian Foley, President and COO of our North America Development Group within Brookfield Properties.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。歡迎參加 Brookfield 的 2020 年第四季度和全年電話會議。今天的電話會議是我們的首席執行官 Bruce Flatt；我們的首席財務官尼克古德曼； Brookfield Properties 北美開發集團總裁兼首席運營官 Adrian Foley。

Bruce will start off by giving a business update, followed by Nick who will discuss our financial and operating results. And finally, Adrian will give an update on our residential single-family business. After our formal comments, we'll turn the call over to the operator and take analysts' questions.

Bruce 將首先提供業務更新，然後 Nick 將討論我們的財務和運營結果。最後，阿德里安將介紹我們的住宅單戶家庭業務的最新情況。在我們正式發表評論後，我們會將電話轉給接線員並回答分析師的問題。

I'd like to remind you that in today's comments, including in responding to questions and in discussing new initiatives and our financial and operating performance, we may make forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. These statements reflect predictions of future events and trends and do not relate to historic events. They are subject to known and unknown risks, and future events may -- and results may differ materially from such statements. For further information on these risks and their potential impacts on our company, please see our filings with the securities regulators in Canada and the U.S. and the information available on our website.

我想提醒您，在今天的評論中，包括在回答問題和討論新舉措以及我們的財務和經營業績時，我們可能會做出前瞻性陳述，包括適用的加拿大和美國含義內的前瞻性陳述。證券法。這些陳述反映了對未來事件和趨勢的預測，與歷史事件無關。它們面臨已知和未知的風險，未來事件可能——結果可能與此類陳述大不相同。有關這些風險及其對我們公司的潛在影響的更多信息，請參閱我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件以及我們網站上提供的信息。

Thanks. And with that, I'll turn it over to Bruce.

謝謝。有了這個，我會把它交給布魯斯。

Thank you, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone on the call. Despite the extraordinary circumstances of 2020, we ended the year with our best quarter on record. For the year, we earned a record level of FFO and cash available for distribution as well. All of this was achieved despite roughly 20% of our businesses being impacted during the economic shutdown.

謝謝你，Suzanne，大家早上好。儘管 2020 年情況特殊，但我們以有記錄以來最好的季度結束了這一年。這一年，我們還獲得了創紀錄的 FFO 和可用於分配的現金。儘管我們大約 20% 的業務在經濟停擺期間受到影響，但所有這些都實現了。

I use this point to underscore for you one more time the strength of our capital structure and the long-term nature and resiliency of our asset management franchise and the businesses that we own. The environment in 2020 was unusual to say the least. Just a few points. We saw GDP drop in almost every country, unprecedented stimulus put in the economies, dramatic increases in unemployment rates and interest rates dropping to effectively 0 in almost every major market.

我用這一點再次向您強調我們資本結構的實力以及我們的資產管理特許經營權和我們擁有的業務的長期性質和彈性。 2020 年的環境至少可以說是不同尋常的。只是幾點。我們看到幾乎每個國家的 GDP 都在下降，對經濟體實施了前所未有的刺激措施，失業率急劇上升，幾乎每個主要市場的利率實際上都降至零。

As we now look into 2021, we are seeing positive momentum in global markets, low borrowing costs, the pharmaceutical companies have come through an amazing time and the vaccines are now being rolled out. We expect economies will normalize as the at-risk populations are vaccinated. We are starting to see this happen now, although unevenly. And as governments and people get comfortable enough to resume normal life, we expect to see a strong recovery in economic numbers starting now and into next year. We expect interest rates to remain low as there is no meaningful inflation on the horizon. This low interest rate environment should continue to provide a very positive backdrop for our asset management business and the real assets that we own.

展望 2021 年，我們看到全球市場的積極勢頭、低借貸成本、製藥公司度過了一段美好的時光，疫苗正在推出。我們預計，隨著高危人群接種疫苗，經濟將恢復正常。我們現在開始看到這種情況發生，儘管不均衡。隨著政府和人民恢復正常生活，我們預計從現在開始到明年，經濟數據將強勁復甦。我們預計利率將保持在低位，因為不會出現有意義的通脹。這種低利率環境應繼續為我們的資產管理業務和我們擁有的實物資產提供非常積極的背景。

It is worth noting that while our business has been very resilient over the last 12 months, it is -- and it is built to perform at all points in the cycle, in general, our operations are more geared to economic recovery. As a result, we should be able to grow the value of our businesses coming out of this recession even more. One business that we own that has been very strong is our residential single-family business in the United States. We don't often profile this business. But given what is going on in the residential markets, we asked Adrian Foley to join our call today. You will hear from him in a moment.

值得注意的是，雖然我們的業務在過去 12 個月中一直非常有彈性，但它是——而且它的構建是為了在周期的所有時間點都表現出色，總的來說，我們的業務更適合經濟復甦。因此，我們應該能夠在這場衰退中進一步提升我們企業的價值。我們擁有的一項非常強大的業務是我們在美國的住宅單戶家庭業務。我們不經常介紹此業務。但鑑於住宅市場正在發生的事情，我們今天邀請 Adrian Foley 加入我們的電話會議。一會兒你就會聽到他的消息。

Looking back on 2020, we raised over $40 billion of capital across a number of diverse strategies. Of note in the year, we saw strong growth in our perpetual private fund strategies, we had a successful first close for the flagship distressed fund and we saw sizable inflows to other credit. As we look to 2021 and beyond, all indications are that this strong momentum is continuing.

回顧 2020 年，我們通過多種不同的策略籌集了超過 400 億美元的資金。值得注意的是，我們的永久私募基金策略增長強勁，旗艦不良基金首次成功收盤，其他信貸資金大量流入。展望 2021 年及以後，所有跡像都表明這種強勁勢頭仍在繼續。

We are in the early stages of a fundraising super cycle and remain confident in our target laid out at our Investor Day of $100 billion for this round of flagship fundraising. The size of our flagship fund offerings differentiates us in the scale of things that we do, and this scale in itself creates opportunities. So this is additive to the franchise in many ways. Specifically, we are now in the market fundraising for our fourth real estate flagship fund. And with our private equity and infrastructure funds almost 60% invested or committed in aggregate, we expect them to launch fundraising for their next vintages in the next 12 months.

我們正處於籌款超級週期的早期階段，並且對我們在投資者日為這一輪旗艦籌款設定的 1000 億美元目標充滿信心。我們旗艦基金產品的規模使我們在我們所做的事情的規模上與眾不同，而這種規模本身就創造了機會。所以這在很多方面都是對特許經營的補充。具體來說，我們現在正在為我們的第四個房地產旗艦基金進行市場籌款。我們的私募股權和基礎設施基金總共投資或承諾了近 60%，我們預計它們將在未來 12 個月內為下一個年份啟動籌款活動。

We also recently laid out for you 4 new growth areas, each which we believe will be meaningful to our long-term growth strategy. These are reinsurance, energy transition, secondaries and technology investing. Since then, we have been working on 2 reinsurance transactions and are closing in on $15 billion long-dated annuities in that business, have made a number of investments and are raising capital for real estate secondaries, established a team focused on technology and recently launched fundraising for our Global Transition Fund, which we hope to be over $7.5 billion.

我們最近還為您列出了 4 個新的增長領域，我們認為每個領域都將對我們的長期增長戰略有意義。這些是再保險、能源轉型、二級市場和技術投資。從那時起，我們一直在進行 2 筆再保險交易，並正在完成該業務中 150 億美元的長期年金，進行了多項投資並正在為房地產二級市場籌集資金，建立了一個專注於技術的團隊，並於最近推出為我們的全球轉型基金籌款，我們希望超過 75 億美元。

We have committed $2 billion ourselves to this strategy. This fund is focused on high-quality, sustainable investments that will accelerate the transition of the world to a net-zero carbon economy. As an organization more broadly, we are committed to the movement to a net-zero carbon economy, and our Global Transition Fund will be supportive of this goal. All around the world, we are seeing countries making commitments to this effort and, in some cases, ones who have already done that are accelerating their targets.

我們已經為這一戰略投入了 20 億美元。該基金專注於高質量、可持續的投資，這些投資將加速世界向淨零碳經濟的過渡。作為一個更廣泛的組織，我們致力於實現淨零碳經濟，我們的全球轉型基金將支持這一目標。在世界各地，我們看到各國都在為這一努力做出承諾，在某些情況下，已經這樣做的國家正在加快實現目標。

As we come out of this health and economic crisis, we expect it to be a good time for companies to reset their strategies and focus on sustainable growth. We are in an envious position of being carbon zero across our entire $600 billion asset footprint. As a result, we are well positioned to assist others with this transition. To put it very simply, all companies that want to be around for the long term will need a net-zero strategy. This is no longer a choice.

隨著我們擺脫這場健康和經濟危機，我們預計這將是公司重新調整戰略並專注於可持續增長的好時機。在整個 6000 億美元的資產足跡中，我們處於令人羨慕的零碳狀態。因此，我們有能力幫助其他人完成這一過渡。簡而言之，所有希望長期存在的公司都需要淨零戰略。這不再是一個選擇。

Turning to transaction activity, it was obviously slow in the first half of 2020, but we saw a pickup in the second half of the year and a very busy start to 2021. We are very active today with close to $80 billion of capital for deployment. At the same time, selling activity or sales activity out of our funds SPAC in 2020, but started a gain in the summer and has accelerated into 2021. Nick will discuss what is going on in more depth in his remarks in a moment.

談到交易活動，2020 年上半年明顯放緩，但我們看到下半年有所回升，2021 年開局非常繁忙。我們今天非常活躍，有近 800 億美元的資金用於部署.同時，2020 年我們的基金 SPAC 的銷售活動或銷售活動，但在夏季開始上漲並加速到 2021 年。尼克稍後將在他的講話中更深入地討論正在發生的事情。

So before I turn it over to him, thank you for your ongoing support. We look forward to reporting on the progress of 2021 over the year.

所以在我把它交給他之前，感謝您一直以來的支持。我們期待著報告 2021 年全年的進展。

Thank you, Bruce, and good morning, everyone. So we ended the year with very strong financial results and have an equally positive outlook for the year ahead. Our asset management business continues to benefit from long-dated, predictable revenue streams. And as we execute on our next round of flagship fundraising and scale our other strategies, we expect to see another step growth in fee revenue.

謝謝你，布魯斯，大家早上好。因此，我們以非常強勁的財務業績結束了這一年，並對來年的前景同樣樂觀。我們的資產管理業務繼續受益於長期、可預測的收入流。隨著我們執行下一輪旗艦籌款並擴展我們的其他策略，我們預計費用收入將進一步增長。

In the current environment, we expect to be harvesting capital by selling mature assets. In the last few months, we have advanced and closed a number of asset sales, and we expect that momentum to continue in the coming months. We also believe our operations are well positioned to deliver growth as we emerge from the current economic recession.

在當前環境下，我們預計通過出售成熟資產來獲取資本。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經推進並完成了一些資產出售，我們預計這種勢頭將在未來幾個月繼續保持。我們還相信，隨著我們擺脫當前的經濟衰退，我們的業務已經做好了實現增長的準備。

Before I get into the financial results for the quarter, I want to highlight some of our recent and upcoming capital recycling initiatives. Across our private funds and directly on our balance sheet, we have many investments where we have executed our business plans. We created significant value, and we're now thinking about monetizing to realize profits, return capital to our investors or reinvest the proceeds into the business.

在我了解本季度的財務業績之前，我想強調一下我們最近和即將推出的一些資本回收計劃。在我們的私人基金中，直接在我們的資產負債表上，我們有許多投資，我們已經執行了我們的商業計劃。我們創造了巨大的價值，我們現在正在考慮通過貨幣化來實現利潤、將資本返還給我們的投資者或將收益再投資到業務中。

As transaction activity ramped up in the third quarter of last year, we restarted several sales processes that had been postponed from earlier in the year. We had conviction that our assets, having performed well throughout the year, would be very attractive to a broad pool of buyers. Add to that the fact we're in a near-0 interest rate environment globally and every major economy has experienced significant stimulus, it felt like a very constructive environment to be monetizing investments. Since that point, we have sold more than $15 billion of assets across our private funds, listed affiliate balance sheets and directly held investments, crystallizing total gains of approximately $6 billion or $1.5 billion at our share.

隨著去年第三季度交易活動的增加，我們重新啟動了從今年早些時候推遲的幾個銷售流程。我們堅信，我們的資產全年表現良好，對廣大買家來說將非常有吸引力。除此之外，我們在全球處於接近零利率的環境中，每個主要經濟體都經歷了重大刺激，這感覺像是一個非常有建設性的環境，可以將投資貨幣化。從那時起，我們通過我們的私募基金、上市附屬資產負債表和直接持有的投資出售了超過 150 億美元的資產，實現了大約 60 億美元或 15 億美元的總收益。

Highlights from the fourth quarter include the sale of a real estate self-storage business, sale of a prime office building in Central London, we exited a fund investment in a port terminal in Australia, sold down an interest in our graphite electrode business, IPO-ed a leading manufacturer of solar tracking solutions and completed the partial sale of a directly held real estate portfolio. All these sales were executed at values higher than their IFRS carrying values, generated disposition gains of $810 million and led to the recognition of $434 million of carried interest in the fourth quarter, taking the total for 2020 to $684 million.

第四季度的亮點包括出售房地產自助倉儲業務、出售倫敦市中心的優質辦公樓、退出對澳大利亞港口碼頭的基金投資、出售對石墨電極業務的權益、首次公開募股-ed 一家領先的太陽能跟踪解決方案製造商，並完成了直接持有的房地產投資組合的部分銷售。所有這些銷售的執行價值均高於其 IFRS 賬面價值，產生了 8.1 億美元的處置收益，並導致第四季度確認了 4.34 億美元的附帶權益，使 2020 年的總額達到 6.84 億美元。

Since the start of the year, the pace of activity has accelerated. We recently announced the sale of a district heating and cooling business called Enwave, crystallizing a profit of nearly $2 billion, which represents a multiple of capital of 6x and an IRR of over 30%. We also recently sold a life sciences portfolio at a 2.7x multiple of invested capital or 55% IRR; successfully listed our Indian REIT, which was 8x oversubscribed and at these values represents an IRR of over 30% and multiple of capital of roughly 3x. We IPO-ed a technology provider to the solar and power storage industry; took public one of our ventures investments called Latch, an iPhone-enabled locking system for apartments; and also participated in a successful SPAC merger with a multi-specialty telehealth platform.

年初以來，活動步伐加快。我們最近宣佈出售一家名為 Enwave 的區域供熱和製冷業務，實現近 20 億美元的利潤，相當於 6 倍的資本倍數和超過 30% 的內部收益率。我們最近還以投資資本的 2.7 倍或 55% 的內部收益率出售了生命科學投資組合；我們的印度房地產投資信託基金成功上市，超額認購 8 倍，按這些價值計算，內部收益率超過 30%，資本倍數約為 3 倍。我們首次公開募股了一家太陽能和電力存儲行業的技術提供商；公開我們的一項名為 Latch 的風險投資，這是一種支持 iPhone 的公寓鎖定係統；並且還參與了與多專業遠程醫療平台的成功 SPAC 合併。

These sales have been executed at a premium to carrying values and have either crystallized carried interest or taken the fund within which they were held significantly closer to the point of carry realization. Given our outlook on the macro environment and our current pipeline of known realizations, we anticipate a very active first quarter and believe that 2021 will be a strong year for realized carried interest with up to $1 billion currently anticipated.

這些銷售以高於賬面價值的價格執行，並且已經明確了附帶權益，或者使持有它們的基金更接近實現套利點。鑑於我們對宏觀環境的展望和我們目前已知的實現渠道，我們預計第一季度將非常活躍，並相信 2021 年將是實現附帶權益的強勁一年，目前預計高達 10 億美元。

We also expect to be able to opportunistically bolster BAM's liquidity by selling directly held investments into these strong markets. We recently completed the merger of Norbord with West Fraser and now own 20% of the combined company. Our investment has doubled in the last 6 months, and we currently own roughly $1.5 billion worth of shares, which are benefiting enormously from one of the hottest wood product markets ever.

我們還期望能夠通過向這些強勁市場出售直接持有的投資來機會性地增強 BAM 的流動性。我們最近完成了 Norbord 與 West Fraser 的合併，現在擁有合併後公司 20% 的股份。在過去的 6 個月中，我們的投資翻了一番，目前我們擁有價值約 15 億美元的股票，這些股票正從有史以來最熱門的木製品市場之一中受益匪淺。

Turning to results. Total funds from operations, or FFO, in the fourth quarter was $2.1 billion or $1.34 per share, which was a 74% increase over the prior year quarter. Our operating FFO, which excludes the impact of disposition gains and realized carried interest, was a record $1 billion in the quarter or $0.66 a share and reflected the growth of our asset management franchise and the resiliency of our underlying businesses. All of this resulted in income to shareholders in the quarter of $643 million or $0.40 on a per-share basis.

轉向結果。第四季度的運營總資金或 FFO 為 21 億美元或每股 1.34 美元，比去年同期增長 74%。我們的運營 FFO（不包括處置收益和已實現附帶權益的影響）在本季度達到創紀錄的 10 億美元或每股 0.66 美元，反映了我們資產管理業務的增長和基礎業務的彈性。所有這些都在本季度為股東帶來了 6.43 億美元或每股 0.40 美元的收入。

Our asset management business also had a successful year. Fee-bearing capital increased by $22 billion to $312 billion at year end, which, when combined with the full year's contribution from our credit business, led to strong growth in fee-related earnings. The fee-related earnings increased to $411 million for the 3-month period and totaled $1.4 billion over the year, an increase of 19% from 2019.

我們的資產管理業務也取得了成功的一年。到年底，收費資本增加了 220 億美元，達到 3,120 億美元，再加上我們信貸業務對全年的貢獻，導致與收費相關的收益強勁增長。與費用相關的收入在 3 個月期間增至 4.11 億美元，全年總計 14 億美元，比 2019 年增長 19%。

We also have a further $33 billion of capital that will become fee-bearing when invested. And when it does, it will generate approximately $330 million of incremental fee revenues annually. In the quarter, we generated $1.2 billion of gross carried interest, bringing our unrealized carried interest balance to $4.7 billion, and this is reflective of value-enhancement strategies we have implemented within our various operating businesses and our credit business.

我們還有另外 330 億美元的資本，這些資本在投資時將成為收費的。當它這樣做時，它將每年產生大約 3.3 億美元的增量費用收入。在本季度，我們產生了 12 億美元的總附帶權益，使我們的未實現附帶權益餘額達到 47 億美元，這反映了我們在各種經營業務和信貸業務中實施的增值戰略。

Turning to invested capital, including disposition gains, FFO for the quarter was $644 million, an increase of 45% from the prior period. The increase was driven by excellent performance within some of our private equity businesses, most notably Norbord, and similar strong performance within our portfolio of financial assets. We also saw contributions to FFO from newly acquired businesses and same-store growth across a number of our segments.

轉向投資資本，包括處置收益，本季度的 FFO 為 6.44 億美元，比上一季度增長 45%。這一增長是由於我們的一些私募股權業務（尤其是 Norbord）的出色表現以及我們金融資產組合中類似的強勁表現推動的。我們還看到新收購的業務和我們多個部門的同店增長對 FFO 的貢獻。

Our strong results in the quarter led to $957 million of cash available for distribution, or what we call CAFDR, during the quarter, a 45% increase from the fourth quarter of 2019 when excluding the impact of carried interest. On a full year basis, we generated a record $3 billion of CAFDR, which is up 19% from the prior year and highlights our ability to continually generate strong cash returns across the whole market cycle. This cash flow continues to bolster our liquidity, which is used to redeploy to higher-growth opportunities or over time return to shareholders. Over the past year, we've returned over $1.1 billion of capital to our shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

我們在本季度的強勁業績導致本季度可用於分配的現金為 9.57 億美元，即我們所說的 CAFDR，如果不計附帶權益的影響，比 2019 年第四季度增長 45%。在全年基礎上，我們創造了創紀錄的 30 億美元的 CAFDR，比上一年增長了 19%，凸顯了我們在整個市場週期中持續產生強勁現金回報的能力。這種現金流繼續增強我們的流動性，用於重新部署到更高增長的機會或隨著時間的推移回報股東。過去一年，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了超過 11 億美元的資本。

Our liquidity remains very strong. In addition to $61 billion of uncalled fund commitments, we have approximately $16 billion of core liquidity across the group, including over $7 billion directly at BAM for a total of $77 billion of deployable capital. Our balance sheet continues to remain conservatively capitalized with 94% of our debt having no recourse to the corporation.

我們的流動性仍然非常強勁。除了 610 億美元的未收回基金承諾外，我們在整個集團內擁有約 160 億美元的核心流動性，其中包括直接在 BAM 的超過 70 億美元，總計 770 億美元的可部署資本。我們的資產負債表繼續保持保守資本化，我們 94% 的債務對公司沒有追索權。

Today, our corporate debt-to-market-capitalization ratio is 12%, and average remaining term on our corporate debt is 14 years. And we have no individual piece of debt maturing before 2023. Furthermore, our investments continue to remain a source of significant additional flexibility with mature investments that can quickly be converted to cash, often at a significant premium to book value. In the last quarter alone, we were able to unlock approximately $677 million of added liquidity by opportunistically selling investments. And just this morning, we announced that we generated a further $750 million of liquidity from a secondary offering of BEPC shares.

今天，我們的公司債務與市值的比率為 12%，我們公司債務的平均剩餘期限為 14 年。而且我們沒有任何單項債務在 2023 年之前到期。此外，我們的投資仍然是顯著額外靈活性的來源，成熟的投資可以迅速轉換為現金，通常比賬面價值高出很多。僅在上個季度，我們就能夠通過機會性出售投資來釋放大約 6.77 億美元的額外流動性。就在今天早上，我們宣布我們從 BEPC 股票的二次發行中又產生了 7.5 億美元的流動性。

Finally, I am pleased to confirm that our Board of Directors has declared a $0.13 per share dividend payable at the end of March. This represents an increase of 8% over the current quarterly dividend rate.

最後，我很高興地確認，我們的董事會已宣佈在 3 月底支付每股 0.13 美元的股息。這比當前的季度股息率增加了 8%。

With that, I will turn the call over to Adrian Foley to provide an update on our North American residential business.

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Adrian Foley，以提供我們北美住宅業務的最新信息。

Thank you, Nick, and good morning. Today, I'm going to talk to you about Brookfield Residential, our wholly owned North American homebuilder and developer of residential lots.

謝謝你，尼克，早上好。今天，我要和你談談布魯克菲爾德住宅，我們全資擁有的北美住宅建築商和住宅地段開發商。

Just so we are clear on nomenclature, we currently have 3 businesses. First, we buy new land, entitle it and split it into lots to sell. We then sell those lots to someone who builds a house. Second, we sometimes buy those lots ourselves and we build houses. Third, in our credit business, we use the specialized knowledge we have to lend on some lots when others want to control those lots, but not put up the capital.

只是為了讓我們清楚命名，我們目前有 3 家企業。首先，我們購買新土地，將其授予權利並將其分成若干塊出售。然後我們將這些地塊賣給建造房屋的人。其次，我們有時會自己購買這些地段，然後建造房屋。第三，在我們的信貸業務中，當其他人想要控制這些地段時，我們使用我們必須在某些地段上借出的專業知識，而不是投入資金。

Brookfield first invested in this business in 1987. And since then, it has delivered a gross IRR and invested capital of 22%. On a compound basis for 35 years, that's an amazing multiple of capital. Today, our business generates over $600 million and operating -- in operating cash flows annually. The value of the land we currently own is about $7.5 billion at today's prices on an undiscounted basis. And the majority of these land positions will be converted to cash over the next 10 years. The current equity value is approximately $3 billion, and our outlook for the business is very positive. We believe we are well placed to continue delivering very strong returns on equity.

Brookfield 於 1987 年首次投資這項業務。從那時起，它實現了總內部收益率和 22% 的投資資本。在 35 年的複合基礎上，這是驚人的資本倍數。今天，我們的業務每年產生超過 6 億美元的運營現金流。我們目前擁有的土地價值約為 75 億美元，以今天的價格計算，未打折。這些土地頭寸中的大部分將在未來 10 年內轉換為現金。目前的股權價值約為 30 億美元，我們對該業務的前景非常樂觀。我們相信我們有能力繼續提供非常強勁的股本回報。

We operate today in approximately 30 master-planned communities and 100 neighborhoods in 12 cities across North America. Annually, we build on average 4,000 homes and sell an additional 4,000 lots to other builders. As one of the top 5 residential land owners in North America, we control approximately 85,000 lots, which equates to just over 10 years' worth of supply in the markets we operate.

今天，我們在北美 12 個城市的大約 30 個總體規劃社區和 100 個社區開展業務。每年，我們平均建造 4,000 套房屋，並向其他建築商出售額外的 4,000 塊地塊。作為北美前 5 大住宅用地所有者之一，我們控制著大約 85,000 塊地塊，這相當於我們經營的市場僅 10 年多的供應量。

We take a disciplined approach and have proactively managed our land book to deliver consistent returns for Brookfield. In addition to this, we support our credit group who lends money to our homebuilder friends, producing good returns, but to us at a lower risk as we truly understand the value of what we are lending on.

我們採取嚴格的方法，並積極管理我們的土地簿，為布魯克菲爾德提供一致的回報。除此之外，我們還支持我們的信貸集團，他們將錢借給我們的房屋建築商朋友，產生良好的回報，但對我們來說風險較低，因為我們真正了解我們所貸款的價值。

Our long-term strong returns can be attributed to a few things: one, leveraging greater Brookfield knowledge, we use our strategic land investment lens to control assets in the right place at the right time; two, creating value through thoughtful planning and product segmentation; and three, having a homebuilding business to monetize our land value when third-party builders pause or step back.

我們的長期強勁回報可歸因於幾件事：第一，利用更豐富的布魯克菲爾德知識，我們使用我們的戰略土地投資鏡頭在正確的時間將資產控制在正確的位置；二、通過周到的規劃和產品細分創造價值；第三，當第三方建築商暫停或退出時，擁有房屋建築業務以將我們的土地價值貨幣化。

The business of entitlement, land development and master planning is time-consuming and requires very specialized skills. There are a few who do it and still a smaller number who do it and also have the capital to do it well. It requires a detailed technical knowledge of the entitlement process, a product knowledge that maximizes land values and capital management to invest and absorb land users efficiently. When properly executed, it generates excellent risk-adjusted returns and significant cash flows over long periods of time.

權利、土地開發和總體規劃業務非常耗時，並且需要非常專業的技能。有少數人這樣做，還有一小部分人這樣做，也有資本把它做好。它需要有關權利過程的詳細技術知識、最大化土地價值的產品知識和資本管理，以有效地投資和吸收土地使用者。如果執行得當，它會在很長一段時間內產生出色的風險調整回報和大量現金流。

Moving to the current situation, which I'm sure many of you are interested in for many reasons. Over the past 12 months, we have seen the new home market respond positively to structural pent-up demand. The advent of sub-3% mortgage rates, greatly increasing consumers' buying power, coupled with a significant drop in the supply in the used home market, has produced a strong demand for new homes, maybe the strongest I've seen in my 30-plus years doing this, at least on par with 2005, 2006, the difference now are the fundamentals are much, much better.

轉到目前的情況，我相信你們中的許多人出於多種原因對此感興趣。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們看到新房市場對被壓抑的結構性需求做出了積極反應。低於 3% 的抵押貸款利率的出現，大大提高了消費者的購買力，再加上二手房市場供應量的大幅下降，對新房產生了強勁的需求，這可能是我 30 年來見過的最強勁的- 多年來這樣做，至少與 2005 年、2006 年相當，現在的區別是基本面要好得多。

The U.S. new home industry saw over 800,000 new single-family sales in 2020, an increase of approximately 20% from 2019. And the active inventory in the market, that's the used homes available for purchase, down by 35% at the end of 2020. Our own home sales grew 6x from the low point in April through July, August and September, and this increased demand has continued. We finished the year with over 3,500 sales and 15% increase in year-over-year performance, but over 30% increase when you offset for 8 weeks of almost 0 sales when the world totally shut down. We entered 2021 with over 1,900 homes in backlog, that's 50% higher than our 2020 number.

2020 年美國新房行業新增單戶住宅銷量超過 80 萬套，比 2019 年增長約 20%。而市場上的活躍庫存，即可供購買的二手房，到 2020 年底下降了 35% . 我們自己的房屋銷售從 4 月的低點到 7 月、8 月和 9 月增長了 6 倍，而且這種增長的需求還在繼續。我們以超過 3,500 輛的銷售額結束了這一年，業績同比增長了 15%，但當世界完全關閉時，如果您抵消了 8 週幾乎為零的銷售額，則增長超過 30%。進入 2021 年，我們積壓了 1,900 多套房屋，比 2020 年的數字高出 50%。

In addition to strong sales, we've seen home pricing grow by approximately 10% in all of our U.S. markets, and we forecast 2021 and 2022 to have a similar growth trajectory. Assuming all pro forma costs remain the same, about 70% of the home price appreciation drops to the land, and therefore, our margins will improve appreciably. The result of this generates enormous upward revaluations of land value.

除了強勁的銷售外，我們還看到我們所有美國市場的房價增長了約 10%，我們預測 2021 年和 2022 年將有類似的增長軌跡。假設所有備考成本保持不變，大約 70% 的房價升值下降到土地上，因此，我們的利潤率將顯著提高。其結果導致土地價值大幅上調。

When we look some years ahead of forecasted demand, our view is that the land and housing business is in a strong position. The known demographic shifts are driving heavy household formation across many markets, and we believe there is a strong need for housing that is located and priced correctly, both for sale and for rent. The past 10 years have seen an average of just over 1 million multifamily and single-family housing starts annually. That's well below those demographic drivers.

當我們提前幾年預測需求時，我們認為土地和住房業務處於強勢地位。已知的人口結構變化正在推動許多市場的大量家庭形成，我們認為，無論是出售還是出租，都迫切需要定位和定價正確的住房。在過去的 10 年中，平均每年有超過 100 萬套多戶住宅和單戶住宅開工。這遠低於這些人口驅動因素。

We believe we will see continued demand in the next decade with the lot supply industry largely unable to keep pace with the formation of households. The top 10 public builders have grown their market share to approximately 40% of total housing starts, and they desire to control lots through land-like structures off balance sheet. This is where it gets exciting as we both sell lots for these homebuilders and sometimes finance their lots. There are a few others that compete with us.

我們相信，由於地塊供應行業在很大程度上無法跟上家庭的形成步伐，我們將在未來十年看到持續的需求。排名前 10 位的公共建築商的市場份額已增長到大約 40% 的房屋開工總量，他們希望通過資產負債表外的類似土地的結構來控制地塊。這就是令人興奮的地方，因為我們既為這些房屋建築商出售地段，有時又為他們的地段提供資金。還有一些其他人與我們競爭。

We anticipate increasing our land manufacturing to become a supplier of a greater number of lots for public builders while also looking to grow our own housing business under a land growth umbrella. This demonstrates the power of the Brookfield business model, finding alternative avenues to invest capital while always being focused on earning excellent returns.

我們預計增加我們的土地製造，以成為公共建築商更多地塊的供應商，同時也希望在土地增長的保護傘下發展我們自己的住房業務。這展示了 Brookfield 商業模式的力量，它在尋找投資資本的替代途徑的同時始終專注於獲得出色的回報。

The pandemic has accelerated a series of innovations in the way homebuilders find housing, access it for viewing purposes, conduct their own evaluation of pricing and ultimately purchase homes. We have spent operationally, in the past 12 months, a series of times repositioning our digital sales operation and the manner in which we speak to our customer. Our sales environments are open virtually almost every hour of the day. And you can physically access our homes at your leisure from 7:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m., 7 days a week, often without meeting another person. We provide you with transparency in our pricing and offer our services virtually or in person to bring you closer to the home-buying purchase.

大流行加速了房屋建築商尋找房屋、訪問房屋以進行查看、進行自己的定價評估以及最終購買房屋的方式的一系列創新。在過去的 12 個月中，我們在運營上花費了一系列時間來重新定位我們的數字銷售業務以及我們與客戶交談的方式。我們的銷售環境幾乎每天都開放。您可以每週 7 天從早上 7:00 到晚上 9:00 悠閒地親自到我們家，通常無需與他人見面。我們為您提供透明的定價，並以虛擬方式或親自提供我們的服務，讓您更接近購房。

You will shortly be able to view, design and purchase your home online with a purchase-now option. And if you have a home to sell, we will provide you with an avenue to monetize that value, all while sitting on your sofa at home, a remarkable step forward in reducing unnecessary friction in the home-buying and homeownership process. We believe the advent of new technologies like this will produce lower cost of sale moving forward. And these advances in operating efficiency will drive increased lot value as the reduction in costs will also flow to the landlocked pricing.

您很快就能通過“立即購買”選項在線查看、設計和購買您的房屋。如果您有要出售的房屋，我們將為您提供一種將其價值貨幣化的途徑，同時坐在家裡的沙發上，這是在減少購房和購房過程中不必要的摩擦方面向前邁出的顯著一步。我們相信，像這樣的新技術的出現將降低未來的銷售成本。這些運營效率的進步將推動地塊價值的增加，因為成本的降低也將流向內陸定價。

In closing, the industry has enjoyed considerable tailwinds in the last 12 months, and we foresee this continuing during 2021. We remain excited about the long-term prospects of our growth in both our controlled land position and our housing operations.

最後，該行業在過去 12 個月中享有相當大的順風，我們預計這種情況將在 2021 年持續。我們對我們控制的土地地位和住房業務的長期增長前景感到興奮。

Thank you. And I'd like to hand the call back to the operator.

謝謝你。我想把電話轉給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Sohrab Movahedi with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Sohrab Movahedi。

I just had 3, hopefully, quick questions or clarifications. On the transition fund, I think you mentioned about $7.5 billion, is that something that would have been contemplated as part of the bigger $100 billion number that was talked about? Or would that be additive to it?

我只有 3 個，希望是快速的問題或澄清。關於過渡基金，我想你提到了大約 75 億美元，這是否會被考慮為所討論的更大的 1000 億美元數字的一部分？或者那會是附加的嗎？

The second question is around what Adrian was just talking about. I wanted to clarify, Adrian, did you say the portfolio has about $3 billion in equity, but generates about $600 million in operating cash flows annually?

第二個問題是關於阿德里安剛才在說什麼。我想澄清一下，阿德里安，你是說投資組合擁有大約 30 億美元的股權，但每年產生大約 6 億美元的運營現金流？

And then the third question, I guess the sense I got is that it's a very good market for dispositions and realizations. And I wanted to see, Nick or Bruce, if you could handicap how that toggles with you being able to deploy that $33 billion of capital, which can become fee-bearing when committed. So as we look on to 2021, is it going to be more a year of realizations and dispositions? Or is it going to be more of acquisitions and capital deployment? Or how should we think about that?

然後是第三個問題，我想我的感覺是，這是一個非常好的處置和實現市場。我想看看，尼克或布魯斯，如果你能阻止這與你能夠部署這 330 億美元的資本之間的關係，這些資本在承諾時會變成收費的。因此，當我們展望 2021 年時，會不會是更多的實現和處置的一年？還是會更多地進行收購和資本部署？或者我們應該怎麼想？

Okay. Thanks, Sohrab. So maybe I can go with the first and the third. And then the question for Adrian, clarification, we can -- he can jump in at the end. So on the transition fund, when we laid out the $100 billion, I assume the $100 billion, you're referring to the next round of flagship fundraising. Yes, listen, when I think when we laid out that target, we would have envisaged that renewable investing would become a larger component and either it would be a part of the next flagship infrastructure fund or we could go about raising a new strategy.

好的。謝謝，索拉博。所以也許我可以選擇第一個和第三個。然後是阿德里安的問題，澄清一下，我們可以 - 他可以在最後加入。所以關於過渡基金，當我們提出 1000 億美元時，我假設 1000 億美元，你指的是下一輪旗艦籌款。是的，聽著，當我認為當我們制定這個目標時，我們會設想可再生能源投資將成為一個更大的組成部分，或者它將成為下一個旗艦基礎設施基金的一部分，或者我們可以著手製定新戰略。

So I would just think about this. We used to have -- before this, we would have had 4 flagship funds being infrastructure, private equity, real estate and our distressed credit fund. Now I think almost a 5-flagship funds, and this is just an evolution and complementary to the strategy. So I'd largely think of it as being helpful towards reaching that target of $100 billion in the next round of flagships, but then it will probably give us more scale for growth in the future. If that's helpful.

所以我只想考慮一下。我們曾經擁有——在此之前，我們將擁有 4 支旗艦基金，分別是基礎設施、私募股權、房地產和我們的不良信貸基金。現在我覺得差不多有5支旗艦基金了，這只是策略的演進和補充。因此，我在很大程度上認為它有助於在下一輪旗艦店中實現 1000 億美元的目標，但它可能會給我們未來的增長提供更大的規模。如果這有幫助。

And then on your third question, on the interplay of dispositions and putting capital to work, obviously, we're in a market right now. As we touched on, the public markets are obviously very strong right now, and the private markets are very strong given the abundance of capital and low rates and search for yield and growth. So I think given the quality of our assets, it's obviously very logical for us to be looking to monetize the value we've created. And we do have a number of funds earlier, vintage funds or funds with assets that have crystallized or delivered a lot of value, it makes sense to look to crystallize in the short term.

然後關於你的第三個問題，關於處置和投入資金的相互作用，顯然，我們現在處於市場中。正如我們所談到的，公開市場現在顯然非常強勁，而私人市場則非常強勁，因為資本充足，利率低，並尋求收益和增長。因此，我認為考慮到我們資產的質量，我們尋求將我們創造的價值貨幣化顯然是非常合乎邏輯的。而且我們之前確實有一些基金，老式基金或資產已經結晶或產生大量價值的基金，在短期內尋求結晶是有意義的。

That doesn't mean that we are not going to be able to put capital to work. We will look for ways to find transactions that will probably be away from the mainstream where there is maybe a scarcity of capital, and we can still put money to work for value. Although I would say that at this period of time, we're probably being more patient. The pace might be a little bit slower given what's going on in the market, but I think we feel good, and the pipeline is strong enough that we have conviction we'll be able to put the money to work, and we'll just do it in a disciplined manner.

這並不意味著我們無法將資金投入工作。我們將尋找方法來尋找可能遠離資本稀缺的主流的交易，我們仍然可以將資金用於價值。雖然我會說，在這段時間裡，我們可能會更有耐心。考慮到市場上正在發生的事情，速度可能會慢一些，但我認為我們感覺很好，而且管道足夠強大，我們相信我們將能夠投入資金，我們將只是以有紀律的方式進行。

And as for the question on cash flows and equity invested, yes, $3 billion. And that's an average of forecasted 5-year cash flows on land and housing.

至於現金流和投資股權的問題，是的，30 億美元。這是土地和住房預計 5 年現金流量的平均值。

Our next question comes from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

My first question, I think, sort of picks up on that last discussion there around capital deployment. It sounds like maybe there's been some change in your thinking just regarding the timing of investment opportunities that will arise as a result of the pandemic. Maybe you could just sort of revisit your thinking on sort of the scale of the investment opportunities that you're expecting.

我認為，我的第一個問題有點像上次關於資本部署的討論。聽起來您的想法可能發生了一些變化，只是關於由於大流行而出現的投資機會的時機。也許你可以重新審視你對你所期待的投資機會規模的思考。

So look, I'll make a couple of comments, and then Nick may make some more specific ones. But I'll just say that generally, the market changes, we have to change with it. And when we started 2020, it was a good market, and we were investing broadly across the world. The markets changed in March, and we started putting a lot of capital into the public markets. And come May, June, that ended.

所以看，我會發表一些評論，然後尼克可能會發表一些更具體的評論。但我只想說，一般來說，市場會發生變化，我們必須隨之改變。當我們開始 2020 年時，這是一個很好的市場，我們在全球範圍內進行了廣泛的投資。市場在三月份發生了變化，我們開始將大量資金投入公開市場。五月，六月，就這樣結束了。

And so the first point I'd make is we have to be flexible with our business strategies and where we invest because the world changes, and we have to change with it. So we're always attuned to that. The strength of our organization, I think, is that we have broad global mandates, and therefore, we can pick our spots.

所以我要說的第一點是，我們必須靈活地制定我們的業務戰略和我們的投資地點，因為世界在變化，我們必須隨之改變。所以我們總是適應這一點。我認為，我們組織的優勢在於我們擁有廣泛的全球授權，因此，我們可以選擇自己的位置。

And the second point I'd make and just as a broad comment is that is that the markets are very strong in many things. And therefore, we're selling or monetizing in this environment because they may go higher, but it's just a good time to monetize a number of things.

我要提出的第二點，也就是廣泛的評論是，市場在許多方面都非常強勁。因此，我們在這種環境下進行銷售或貨幣化，因為它們可能會更高，但現在正是將許多東西貨幣化的好時機。

Irrespective of that, there still are many countries, many places, many businesses and many things that aren't trading -- are not trading properly, and therefore, we can put capital to work. So we do not worry that we have a lack of places to put money to work. On balance, though, I would say, this is not a period where in March, you could put enormous amounts of money to work into the public markets at distressed valuations.

儘管如此，仍有許多國家、許多地方、許多企業和許多東西沒有交易——沒有正常交易，因此，我們可以投入資金。所以我們不擔心我們沒有地方可以花錢工作。不過，總的來說，我想說，這不是 3 月份的一個時期，你可以將大量資金以低估值投入公開市場。

Great. That's helpful. And then thank you for the update on the residential business. I apologize if I missed this, but can you comment on how that business is carried within your invested capital under IFRS and how that carrying value would compare to the intrinsic value of the land holdings, and also just the timing of when the strong market dynamics that were referenced should start to flow into FFO?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後感謝您提供有關住宅業務的最新信息。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但您能否評論一下根據 IFRS 是如何在您的投資資本中開展該業務的，以及該賬面價值與土地持有的內在價值相比如何，以及市場動態強勁的時機被引用的應該開始流入 FFO 嗎？

Yes. Cherilyn, it's Nick. So I think on our land and housing business on the balance sheets and our directly held unlisted, roughly about $3 billion combined. There are some projects within that, that are more like investment properties, so fair value, but most of it is just inventory held at depreciated cost. So that value uplift comes through as we look to sell those parcels over time. So there could be an uplift on monetization over time from there.

是的。 Cherilyn，是尼克。因此，我認為資產負債表上的土地和住房業務以及我們直接持有的非上市公司合計約 30 億美元。其中有一些項目，更像是投資物業，所以是公允價值，但大部分只是以折舊成本持有的存貨。因此，當我們希望隨著時間的推移出售這些包裹時，價值提升就會出現。因此，隨著時間的推移，貨幣化可能會有所提升。

On the realization into our financial statements of the strong operating performance and backlog that we have, you'll start to see that come through in the early part of this year, the first half of this year as we deliver on those lots and then crystallize the profit and the earnings into the P&L. We take a more conservative approach as we deliver the houses or the lots, then you'll start to see that income flow through. So you should see a strong pickup in the contribution in 2021.

在我們的財務報表中實現我們擁有的強勁運營業績和積壓訂單後，您將在今年年初、今年上半年開始看到這一點，因為我們交付了這些批次，然後具體化利潤和收益計入損益表。我們在交付房屋或地塊時採取更保守的方法，然後您將開始看到收入流過。因此，您應該會看到 2021 年的貢獻強勁回升。

Our next question comes from Ken Worthington with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Worthington。

Assuming the BPY deal closes as expected, what do you see as the right balance of selling BPY real estate assets outright versus the sale of these investments to new and existing Brookfield funds?

假設 BPY 交易按預期完成，您認為直接出售 BPY 房地產資產與將這些投資出售給新的和現有的 Brookfield 基金之間的正確平衡是什麼？

And then there seems to be a trade-up between how quickly Brookfield could sell BPY assets into new Brookfield funds and the price that Brookfield might get by holding on to these properties for a more lengthy period of time, so this concept of time versus price. Do you think there is a right balance when maximizing Brookfield shareholder values between time and price? Or is it obviously sort of one versus the other?

然後似乎在布魯克菲爾德可以多快將 BPY 資產出售給新的布魯克菲爾德基金和布魯克菲爾德通過持有這些資產更長的時間可能獲得的價格之間進行權衡，所以這個時間與價格的概念.您認為在時間和價格之間最大化 Brookfield 股東價值時是否存在適當的平衡？或者它顯然是一種對另一種？

Listen, it's a good question, Ken. I think that the outright versus going into funds, we'll have to see how it evolves. We have a view that we have a portfolio of very, very high-quality assets that should be attractive to clients. And over time, we should be able to create products around these assets that will be attractive. But as you say, that will be balanced with some assets that it makes sense just to sell outright. The exact breakdown of that, it's hard to say. It will be case by case.

聽著，這是個好問題，肯。我認為直接與進入資金，我們將不得不看看它是如何演變的。我們認為，我們擁有對客戶具有吸引力的非常、非常高質量的資產組合。隨著時間的推移，我們應該能夠圍繞這些資產創造具有吸引力的產品。但正如你所說，這將與一些資產相平衡，這些資產只是直接出售才有意義。確切的細分，很難說。這將視情況而定。

But I think to the second part of your question, it will be disciplined, and we will look to do it for value. There are certain parts of the portfolio that even in today's climate, they still attract strong valuations. We sold an office building in Central London in the fourth quarter at a very strong valuation. And there are other markets that are active, and then there are markets that right now are not as active and where you could sell assets would not be attractive.

但我認為對於你問題的第二部分，它將受到紀律處分，我們將尋求價值。即使在今天的氣候下，投資組合的某些部分仍然吸引了強勁的估值。我們在第四季度以非常強勁的估值出售了倫敦市中心的一棟辦公樓。還有其他活躍的市場，還有一些現在不那麼活躍的市場，你可以出售資產的地方沒有吸引力。

So I think it will be a balance. And I think over time, we hope, as we've communicated, to reduce our exposure to real estate over time, and it will be a combination of outright sales and creating new products. But I think it will just be disciplined. And price versus time is a good question, and I think the overriding principle were to be disciplined and crystallize what we think is a fair value for the assets.

所以我認為這將是一個平衡。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們希望，正如我們所傳達的那樣，隨著時間的推移，我們希望減少對房地產的敞口，這將是直接銷售和創造新產品的結合。但我認為它只會受到紀律處分。價格與時間的關係是一個很好的問題，我認為最重要的原則是遵守紀律並明確我們認為資產的公允價值。

Okay. And then we just had elections here in the U.S., and infrastructure is a priority for the Democrats here in the States. Can you talk if, and if so, how a meaningful increase in U.S. infrastructure investment could offer Brookfield both infrastructure investment and infrastructure realization opportunities? Or maybe it's neither.

好的。然後我們剛剛在美國舉行了選舉，基礎設施是美國民主黨人的優先事項。您能否談談美國基礎設施投資的顯著增加如何為布魯克菲爾德提供基礎設施投資和實現基礎設施的機會？或者也許兩者都不是。

Yes. So look, I would say, maybe as a further backdrop, I'll even make it more broad than that and then specifically comment on the U.S. But governments around the world haven't spent/invested enormous amounts of money to deal with the COVID situation, more than they ever expected to spend. There's only 2 ways out: tax or sell assets. And when they say -- when I say sell assets, what that means is sell infrastructure, sell infrastructure or fund future infrastructure through doing it in a private method. And our belief is that globally, governments will need to do both. They will need to tax and they will need to sell infrastructure.

是的。所以看，我想說，也許作為一個進一步的背景，我什至會比這更廣泛，然後專門評論美國。但世界各國政府並沒有花費/投資大量資金來應對 COVID情況，比他們預期的要多。只有兩條出路：徵稅或出售資產。當他們說 - 當我說出售資產時，這意味著出售基礎設施，出售基礎設施或通過私人方式為未來的基礎設施提供資金。我們的信念是，在全球範圍內，政府將需要兩者兼得。他們需要徵稅，他們需要出售基礎設施。

And that sets a very constructive backdrop for both things you said, which is there will be other institutions that will want to buy fully completed infrastructure with long-tailed cash flows and that we can, therefore, have a good market to sell into. And there will be assets, which are less perfect or larger in size or more diverse in nature that we can participate in and turn them into the first category. And so I think it's -- there is nothing but good news on the supply for infrastructure coming over the next 10 years, and that specifically is in the United States, but also in many other countries in the world.

這為你所說的兩件事設置了一個非常有建設性的背景，那就是會有其他機構想要購買具有長尾現金流的完整基礎設施，因此我們可以有一個很好的市場來出售。並且會有一些資產，我們可以參與並把它們變成第一類，這些資產不那麼完美或規模更大或更多樣化。所以我認為這是——關於未來 10 年基礎設施供應的好消息，特別是在美國，但在世界上許多其他國家也是如此。

Our next question comes from Geoff Kwan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Geoff Kwan。

Bruce, you actually kind of answered a little bit of the question that I was going to ask, and I was going back to just what governments kind of spending to try and deal with the pandemic and then how you kind of fix that. My question was, I guess, a little bit more is, have you done much work in terms of trying to figure out targeting preferred assets that you might want to try to invest from various governments globally? Have you had any discussions? Are governments kind of receptive right now? Are they still kind of in just trying to deal with the pandemic mode and kind of thinking about how to finance that a bit further down the road?

布魯斯，你實際上回答了我要問的一些問題，我回到了政府為嘗試應對大流行而花費了多少，然後是如何解決這個問題。我的問題是，我想，還有一點是，您是否在試圖找出您可能想嘗試從全球各國政府投資的首選資產方面做了大量工作？你們有過討論嗎？政府現在有點接受嗎？他們是否仍然只是在嘗試應對大流行模式，並在考慮如何在未來進一步融資？

The answer is, I'd say, it's still early in the game. And these things don't happen overnight. It's not like -- there isn't going to be a switch, one day happen and everyone is going to sell assets. But every month, increasingly for many -- for a long time, more infrastructure has been going into private hands. And no one really sees it or knows about it, but every day, that is happening. So I think just increasingly, more cities, more states, more countries are going to be facilitating more private funding coming into infrastructure, and the follow-on continues.

答案是，我想說，現在還處於早期階段。而這些事情不會在一夜之間發生。這不像 - 不會發生轉變，有一天會發生，每個人都會出售資產。但是每個月，對於許多人來說，越來越多——很長一段時間以來，越來越多的基礎設施進入了私人手中。沒有人真正看到或知道它，但每天都在發生。所以我認為，越來越多的城市、更多的州、更多的國家將促進更多的私人資金進入基礎設施，並且後續行動仍在繼續。

So I think it's just -- it's happening every day, and you just don't really see it. And actually, I think my -- our comment would be the less drama that is with respect to it, the better it is. Because when there are big plans, often, nothing happens. And therefore, just the slow and steady monetization of infrastructure is the best way the countries can get it done.

所以我認為這只是 - 它每天都在發生，而你並沒有真正看到它。實際上，我認為我的 - 我們的評論是關於它的戲劇性越少，它就越好。因為當有大計劃時，通常什麼都不會發生。因此，基礎設施的緩慢而穩定的貨幣化是各國實現這一目標的最佳方式。

Our next question comes from Bill Katz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的比爾卡茨。

Just want to come back, maybe a little more tactical, in terms of the FRE margin, it looked like it was a very strong number for the fourth quarter. As I look through the disclosure, nothing jumps off the page as unusual of size. So Nick, perhaps you could sort of think through, just given the scaling of the flagship funds versus reinvestment versus maybe anything that's sort of running below trinkles of COVID, how to think through the FRE margin into the new year?

只是想回來，也許更戰術一點，就 FRE 利潤率而言，它看起來像是第四季度的一個非常強勁的數字。當我瀏覽披露內容時，沒有任何內容因尺寸異常而跳出頁面。所以尼克，也許你可以考慮一下，考慮到旗艦基金的規模與再投資的規模，以及可能低於 COVID 的任何東西，如何將 FRE 保證金考慮到新的一年？

Yes. Sure, Bill. I don't think the messaging has really changed. I think we saw continued strong margins across the business. I think on a blended basis, it's strong. We baked it out for you by Brookfield and Oaktree. And the Oaktree margin was strong this quarter as they switched on more fee revenue during the year. But listen, the perspective is the same and that we are broadening our product offering. We are launching new strategies, which will require investment professionals, and the ability to service the clients and service them to the highest standard. Obviously, there will be leverage as we scale up. But I don't think anything has significantly changed to what we would have guided to the past. Although based on the growth we have in front of us, maybe we outperformed that slightly, but nothing materially has changed as we look forward.

是的。當然，比爾。我認為消息傳遞並沒有真正改變。我認為我們看到整個業務的利潤率持續強勁。我認為在混合的基礎上，它很強大。我們由 Brookfield 和 Oaktree 為您烘焙。橡樹樹本季度的利潤率很高，因為他們在這一年開啟了更多的費用收入。但是聽著，觀點是一樣的，我們正在擴大我們的產品範圍。我們正在推出新的戰略，這將需要投資專業人士，以及為客戶提供服務並以最高標準服務他們的能力。顯然，隨著我們擴大規模，將會有影響力。但我不認為任何事情都與我們過去所引導的相比發生了顯著變化。儘管基於我們面前的增長，也許我們的表現略勝一籌，但在我們期待的過程中並沒有發生實質性的變化。

Okay. A 2-part follow up, and I apologize, a bit unrelated. This seems to be a little bit of back and forth with investors we speak to in terms of the economic flow-through of BPY, just the add-on of what you're purchasing. I wonder if you can maybe just sort of summarize sort of how you sort of see the interplay between the invested capital versus the FRE, give and take. And then just sort of stepping back, and I'm so intrigued by your commentary on the residential mortgage side, maybe just an update strategically of how to further tap into the U.S. retail market, similar to some of your peers.

好的。兩部分跟進，我道歉，有點無關。就 BPY 的經濟流通而言，這似乎與我們交談的投資者有點反复，只是你所購買的東西的附加物。我想知道您是否可以總結一下您如何看待投資資本與 FRE、給予和接受之間的相互作用。然後只是退後一步，我對你對住宅抵押貸款方面的評論很感興趣，也許只是戰略上關於如何進一步進入美國零售市場的更新，類似於你的一些同行。

Yes, sure. The economic flow-through on BPY, I think we've discussed, and we will have to update this as we work through the process. Obviously, there is a fee paid out of the business today. When we announced, we announced that we would have partners in the transaction with us. As we work this through with our partners, we will firm it up. But just now we expect that, that BPY entity continues to pay fees like it does today. And as that evolves, we'll confirm, but that's our expectation. And as the return on invested capital, we expect BPY to continue to pay a cash distribution to Brookfield, consistent with what it does today. So that's the basic working assumption for now. And obviously, the business is performing well. Cash flow is strong. And I have no reason to change that outlook as we look forward.

是的，當然。 BPY 的經濟流動，我想我們已經討論過了，我們將不得不在我們完成這個過程時更新它。顯然，今天從業務中支付了一筆費用。當我們宣佈時，我們宣布我們將在與我們的交易中擁有合作夥伴。當我們與合作夥伴一起解決這個問題時，我們將堅定它。但剛才我們預計，BPY 實體將繼續像今天一樣支付費用。隨著情況的發展，我們會確認，但這是我們的期望。作為投資資本的回報，我們預計 BPY 將繼續向布魯克菲爾德支付現金分配，與今天的做法一致。所以這是目前的基本工作假設。顯然，該業務表現良好。現金流強勁。在我們向前看時，我沒有理由改變這種前景。

The second part -- can you remind me the second part of the question?

第二部分——你能提醒我問題的第二部分嗎？

Yes, sorry for such a nested set of questions. Just sort of curious sort of translating some of this great performance, great products into potentially tapping a little bit deeper into the U.S. retail market.

是的，對於這樣一組嵌套的問題感到抱歉。只是有點好奇，將一些出色的性能、出色的產品轉化為可能更深入地進入美國零售市場。

Yes. Yes, I think what we're doing on that is probably consistent with our peers. I think when the partnership that we have with Oaktree, we now have a really diverse range of products that are appealing to that broader market, and we've been leveraging what we have on the Brookfield side and our distribution capabilities to really try and grow that. I think about 7% to 8% of our fee-bearing capital today comes from that high net worth retail channel, and we'll be looking to grow that over time. And we've been developing and thinking about new products that could cater to that market. So I think it will be an important component of future fundraising.

是的。是的，我認為我們在這方面所做的可能與我們的同行一致。我認為，當我們與 Oaktree 建立合作夥伴關係時，我們現在擁有非常多樣化的產品，這些產品吸引了更廣泛的市場，我們一直在利用我們在 Brookfield 方面擁有的東西和我們的分銷能力來真正嘗試和發展那。我認為我們今天大約 7% 到 8% 的收費資本來自高淨值零售渠道，我們將尋求隨著時間的推移而增長。我們一直在開發和考慮可以迎合該市場的新產品。所以我認為這將是未來籌款的重要組成部分。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kuske with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kuske。

The question really relates to the velocity of capital flowing through your business, and this is the private asset management business. And it's really on the raise, deploy and monetization cycles. And if you could give us maybe a quick snapshot on, organizationally, just the evolution you've seen from where you were 10 years ago and where you think you'll be 5 years from now. What -- where do you need to work? Is it on the distribution side? Is it on the investment professional side? Just give us a bit of color on that, that would be helpful.

問題實際上與通過您的業務流動的資金速度有關，這就是私人資產管理業務。它確實處於融資、部署和貨幣化週期中。如果你能給我們一個快速的快照，從組織上看，你從 10 年前看到的演變，以及你認為 5 年後的演變。什麼——你需要在哪里工作？是在分銷方面嗎？是投資專業方面的嗎？只是給我們一點顏色，那會很有幫助。

Yes. And look, Andrew, I'd say we need help everywhere to make it specific. No one's ever perfect. But the good news is we've grown the business methodically over 25 years. And I guess I would just say, while we need to be -- pay attention to all we're doing, I think we keep growing methodically each one of the businesses and adding tangential businesses onto it at a pace where we can handle it and both from a capital perspective and also from a management perspective.

是的。看，安德魯，我會說我們需要各地的幫助才能使其具體化。沒有人是完美的。但好消息是我們已經有條不紊地發展業務超過 25 年。我想我只想說，雖然我們需要——注意我們正在做的一切，但我認為我們會繼續有條不紊地發展每一項業務，並以我們可以處理的速度將相關業務添加到其中，並且無論是從資本的角度，還是從管理的角度。

So I -- look, I think we have one of the -- we have a very -- if I may, 2 specific comments. We have a very honed and refined investment process. We've only been -- and that's been many, many, many years. We've been refining that. On the asset management distribution side, we're 20 years young, and we can still grow and become more effective at that. So I'd say if we had one spot where we can be -- probably do a lot better, even though I'd say we're pretty good, is on that side.

所以我- 看，我認為我們有一個- 如果可以的話，我們有一個非常- 2 條具體意見。我們有一個非常磨練和完善的投資流程。我們只是——而且已經很多很多很多年了。我們一直在完善它。在資產管理分銷方面，我們還年輕 20 歲，我們仍然可以成長並變得更有效率。所以我會說，如果我們有一個我們可以做到的地方——可能會做得更好，即使我會說我們非常好，就在這一邊。

And if I may ask a follow-up, and it's different but also a little bit related. Obviously, your homebuilding business, which you profiled today, has evolved over the years. And what's the next iteration of that homebuilding business? Because in the past, you've had other public entities, BHS, BRP, BZA, I might be missing one, but I think those are the 3 majors. How do you think about that business? Is it off the balance sheet at some point, either in a public company or a private company and/or co-investors? What are the options for the business?

如果我可以問一個後續，它是不同的，但也有點相關。顯然，您今天介紹的房屋建築業務多年來一直在發展。房屋建築業務的下一個迭代是什麼？因為在過去，您有其他公共實體，BHS、BRP、BZA，我可能缺少一個，但我認為這是 3 個專業。您如何看待這項業務？它是否在某個時候脫離了資產負債表，無論是在上市公司還是私營公司和/或共同投資者？企業有哪些選擇？

Yes. Look, it's a good question. And the point I'd make is that we, over the years, we found that some businesses are good in the public markets and some not so good. And the housing -- we have a housing business, but the real business we have is land development. And where you make all the money is land development. And it's highly profitable, but it's highly irregular. And because of that, it doesn't accord to the public markets. And therefore, it will either be private on our own balance sheet or at some point in time, we may introduce institutional clients into it because they're private and they can understand what I just -- they're willing to deal with what I just described as opposed to the public market. So you will not -- you will likely not see for us -- I never say never, but you will likely not see from us a public entity in land development.

是的。看，這是個好問題。我想說的是，多年來，我們發現有些企業在公共市場上表現不錯，有些則不太好。還有住房——我們有住房業務，但我們真正的業務是土地開發。而你賺錢的地方是土地開發。而且它的利潤很高，但它非常不規則。正因為如此，它不符合公共市場。因此，它要么在我們自己的資產負債表上是私有的，要么在某個時間點，我們可能會將機構客戶引入其中，因為他們是私有的，他們可以理解我的意思——他們願意處理我所做的事情剛剛描述為相對於公開市場。所以你不會 - 你可能不會看到我們 - 我從不說永遠不會，但你可能不會從我們那裡看到土地開發的公共實體。

Our next question comes from Alex Blostein with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Blostein。

I was hoping we could spend a couple of minutes on the path for management fee growth this year. It sounds like the fundraising momentum is going quite well. We've seen the same for many of your peers. So as you work toward the flagship super cycle, maybe kind of walk us through your management fee thoughts for this year and perhaps next year?

我希望我們能在今年管理費增長的道路上花幾分鐘時間。聽起來籌款勢頭很好。我們已經為您的許多同行看到了同樣的情況。因此，當您朝著旗艦超級週期努力時，也許可以向我們介紹一下您對今年和明年的管理費的想法？

Yes. So I think, Alex, as we look forward, it can be lumpy, right? Like there's going to be step changes with each fund that comes in, which is why we kind of like to look at over a cycle and over a longer period of time. And so I think what we're working towards is consistent with what we would have laid out at Investor Day, which kind of had our FRE. If we are able to achieve the fundraising targets that we've laid out, that path would lead towards doubling of FRE over the next 5 years. And those step changes will largely come in line with the closings of those flagship funds.

是的。所以我認為，亞歷克斯，正如我們所期待的那樣，它可能很不穩定，對吧？就像每一個進入的基金都會有階躍變化，這就是為什麼我們喜歡在一個週期和更長的時間段內觀察。因此，我認為我們正在努力的方向與我們在投資者日所製定的一致，即我們的 FRE。如果我們能夠實現我們制定的籌款目標，那麼這條道路將導致未來 5 年 FRE 翻一番。這些步驟變化將在很大程度上與這些旗艦基金的關閉一致。

And as we said, our opportunity, the debt opportunity fund had first closes, should have a final close in the coming months. We've launched the next real estate fund, transition fund is launched, and infrastructure and private equity, I would say, within the next 12 months, conservatively. So I think that's going to be what's going to lead to the step change in the revenue. When you think about it in a 5-year period, that's what leads to kind of thinking about doubling, while at the same time, we continue to grow the other strategies in our perpetual closed-end vehicles.

正如我們所說，我們的機會，即債務機會基金首先關閉，應該在未來幾個月內最終關閉。我們已經推出了下一個房地產基金、過渡基金以及基礎設施和私募股權，我會說，保守地說，在未來 12 個月內。所以我認為這將導致收入的階梯式變化。當你在 5 年的時間內考慮它時，這就是導致考慮翻倍的原因，同時，我們繼續在我們的永久封閉式車輛中發展其他策略。

Got it. Okay, so no material fee there?

知道了。好的，所以那裡沒有材料費？

Yes.

是的。

Got it. Okay. My follow-up is around BPY, and I think you partially answered that question a little bit earlier. But just thinking through the dialogues you guys are having with third-party LPs today, now the deal has been out there for a little while, what's sort of the appetite maybe in the expectation you have for third-party capital to participate in the transaction? And if you could remind us again your expectations on how this deal will ultimately impact FRE for BAM. I know there's a couple of moving pieces there, but I think you talked about that being generally neutral in the past. I'm just curious to get your updated thoughts.

知道了。好的。我的後續行動是圍繞 BPY，我想你早一點回答了這個問題。但是想想你們今天和第三方LP的對話，現在交易已經有一段時間了，你對第三方資本參與交易的期望是什麼？ ?如果您能再次提醒我們您對這筆交易將如何最終影響 BAM 的 FRE 的期望。我知道那裡有幾個動人的部分，但我認為你談到過去通常是中性的。我只是想知道你的最新想法。

Sure. I mean, listen, the -- I think we've -- what we've laid out, Alex, is that we have a plan to privatize the business. I believe the offer out there is a fair offer, but that will work its way through the process, and believe that we can deliver significant value for that business in a private form. And we kind of laid that out in the letter this quarter.

當然。我的意思是，聽著——我認為我們已經——我們已經制定了，亞歷克斯，我們有一個將業務私有化的計劃。我相信那裡的報價是一個公平的報價，但這將在整個過程中發揮作用，並相信我們可以以私人形式為該業務提供重大價值。我們在本季度的信中闡述了這一點。

And so I think what you -- what we're careful is there, we have clients that are interested in this portfolio. They recognize its value and its attributes and would like to invest. And we're having those discussions, and we will give updates on them as they evolve. But we're balancing that against wanting the flexibility to be able to execute our plan. So we have to strike a balance between raising capital and still having the flexibility to execute the business plan. So as that evolves, we will keep you posted. All I can say is, for some of our strongest clients, this transaction has definitely piqued their interest. And we'll see how those discussions evolve.

所以我認為你 - 我們要小心的是，我們有對這個投資組合感興趣的客戶。他們認識到它的價值和屬性，並願意投資。我們正在進行這些討論，隨著它們的發展，我們將提供更新。但我們正在平衡這一點與希望能夠執行我們的計劃的靈活性。因此，我們必須在籌集資金和仍然具有執行業務計劃的靈活性之間取得平衡。因此，隨著情況的發展，我們會及時通知您。我只能說，對於我們一些最強大的客戶來說，這筆交易無疑激起了他們的興趣。我們將看到這些討論如何演變。

On the FRE impact and development, again, it's going to be influenced by how much third-party capital we raise now. But I think over time, we expect to see new fund form creation around some of these assets, new strategies that will bring back some of the FRE through -- in probably in higher form and private form where fees are based off of NAV and less on a public price that has been trading at a discount to NAV. So we think we create as high a quality revenue stream over time and that will be very long-dated or potentially perpetual, but one that's based off true market value. But the exact numbers, again, will evolve over time. And for now, we've just been kind of thinking about maintaining the existing fee streams with BPY, maintaining its current form with some clients investing into the corporate entity.

關於 FRE 的影響和發展，再次，它將受到我們現在籌集多少第三方資金的影響。但我認為，隨著時間的推移，我們希望看到圍繞其中一些資產創建新的基金形式，新的策略將帶回一些 FRE——可能是更高的形式和私人形式，費用基於資產淨值而不是更少以低於資產淨值的公開價格交易。因此，我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們會創造出高質量的收入流，這將是非常長期的或可能是永久性的，但這是基於真實市場價值的。但是，確切的數字再次將隨著時間的推移而發展。就目前而言，我們只是在考慮維持與 BPY 的現有費用流，維持其當前形式，一些客戶投資於公司實體。

Our next question comes from Robert Lee with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Robert Lee。

Maybe first one, Nick, is I'm thinking about CapStar. I mean a couple of years ago, you heard 2, though, you guys had laid out that you kind of expected that or thought that would pretty much double over a 5- year time frame. So 40 in a year, cash flow is strong, outlook is pretty good. Care to venture, like should we be thinking that you're still -- you're pretty much set up to kind of get that mid-teens-plus cash flow growth over the next 5 years. Any reason not to expect that that's the trajectory?

也許第一個，尼克，是我在考慮 CapStar。我的意思是幾年前，你們聽說過 2，不過，你們已經提出，你們有點期待或認為這將在 5 年的時間框架內翻倍。所以一年40，現金流強勁，前景不錯。小心冒險，就像我們是否應該認為你仍然 - 你已經準備好在未來 5 年內獲得十幾歲以上的現金流增長。有什麼理由不期待這就是軌跡？

No. I think, Rob, that would still be the trajectory. Again, consistent -- I think we laid it out in September, but that would still be the consistent outlook.

不，我認為，Rob，這仍然是軌跡。再次，一致 - 我認為我們在 9 月份制定了它，但這仍然是一致的前景。

Okay. Great. And then maybe a little bit of a housekeeping question. Just update us on where things stand with the BAM R stock and the spinout of that to shareholders?

好的。偉大的。然後可能是一個家政問題。只需向我們介紹 BAM R 股票的情況以及將其分拆給股東的情況嗎？

Yes. So I -- hey, listen, we're working through the process in filing the requisite documentation and working with the regulators. So I expect and think around the first half of this year, the original time line that we laid out, would still be the rough expectation on that spinout.

是的。所以我 - 嘿，聽著，我們正在完成提交必要文件並與監管機構合作的過程。因此，我預計並認為在今年上半年左右，我們制定的原始時間表仍然是對該分拆的粗略預期。

And then maybe one last question. I appreciate your patience. This is just on the core -- the perpetual core real estate products. I think you mentioned in the letter that maybe there's around $12 billion of committed capital in those. But it's a small piece of the puzzle, but growing and important. Any sense of kind of what the flows have been or the new commitments to that? Is it kind of a steady pace quarter-to-quarter? And just trying to get a feel for how much that's maybe grown in the past couple of quarters.

然後也許是最後一個問題。我感謝你的耐心。這只是核心——永恆的核心房地產產品。我想你在信中提到，其中可能有大約 120 億美元的承諾資本。但它只是拼圖中的一小部分，但它正在成長且重要。有什麼感覺嗎？或者有什麼新的承諾？季度到季度的步伐是否穩定？只是想了解過去幾個季度可能增長了多少。

So it's Bruce. The perpetual infrastructure and real estate products are income replacements for institutions. And I would say these are -- these type of products being cash -- high cash return relative to other fixed income and some appreciation, but very low risk, are highly attractive in the world that we are in today. And I think they're going to keep growing for a while. We have significant money coming into our infrastructure business at the current time. Real estate, just because of the sentiment that's out there, we have less capital coming in, but I think you're going to see that change as the market resolves itself over 2021. But these are both highly attractive products for people, and I think you'll continue to see money flow into them.

所以是布魯斯。永久性基礎設施和房地產產品是機構的收入替代品。我想說，這些類型的產品是現金，相對於其他固定收益的高現金回報和一些升值，但風險非常低，在我們今天的世界中非常有吸引力。而且我認為他們會繼續增長一段時間。目前，我們有大量資金進入我們的基礎設施業務。房地產，僅僅因為市場情緒，我們流入的資金減少了，但我認為隨著市場在 2021 年自行解決，你會看到這種變化。但這對人們來說都是極具吸引力的產品，我認為你會繼續看到資金流入他們。

Our next question comes from Dean Wilkinson with CIBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Dean Wilkinson。

Nick, if I could just circle back on the BPY. Conceptually, if you were to look at sort of doing away with the dividend and not sort of rolling that up to the parent company and keeping it at that opco level, is there some tax savings? And it may be too early to answer that. And would that then naturally accrue to the planned value as opposed to an earnings stream? And how would you think about that going forward?

尼克，如果我能回到 BPY 上就好了。從概念上講，如果您要考慮取消股息而不是將其滾動到母公司並將其保持在 opco 水平，是否可以節省一些稅款？現在回答這個問題可能還為時過早。那麼這是否會自然地累積到計劃價值而不是收益流？你會如何看待未來的發展？

Dean, I don't think there's anything material in that. I think BPY is going to continue to generate strong cash flow. It has these reinvestment opportunities consistent with today. But in excess of that, I think you should expect to see continued distributions. And I don't think there's any material tax analysis really to be done around that, that would change our thinking.

迪恩，我不認為這有什麼實質性的。我認為 BPY 將繼續產生強勁的現金流。它擁有與今天一致的這些再投資機會。但除此之外，我認為您應該期望看到持續的分佈。而且我認為沒有任何實質性的稅收分析真的可以圍繞這一點進行，這會改變我們的想法。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Brian Bedell。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but maybe just a couple more. Maybe just one more on the cadence of the fee revenue growth. Maybe just some perspective on -- obviously, we'll get the step function growth in fees from the new fund launches. But also on the deployment, it sounds like you're being more patient of that. So I just wanted to get a sense of that $330 million of committed capital that work its way into fee-paying AUM, if you think that sort of is going to move up maybe roughly around the same pace as the fundraises or be sooner or later.

我的大部分問題都已經被問及並得到了回答，但也許只是更多。也許只是收費收入增長的節奏。也許只是一些觀點——顯然，我們將從新基金的推出中獲得費用的階梯函數增長。但在部署方面，聽起來您對此更有耐心。所以我只是想了解一下投入付費 AUM 的 3.3 億美元承諾資本，如果你認為這種增長可能與籌款大致相同或遲早會增長.

Yes. I think that's, Brian, that's divorced from fundraising. That would be capital that's raised and committed today. A large part of it would be things like the latest distress debt fund where capital is paid on invested as opposed to committed. But that capital -- Oaktree, in that fund, we're seeing very good investment opportunities. I believe we're over 40% invested or committed now in that fund. And despite the broader strength in the public markets, they're still seeing strong private lending opportunities. So I think we expect to see a decent continued cadence of investing of capital there.

是的。我認為，布賴恩，這與籌款活動脫節了。這將是今天籌集和承諾的資本。其中很大一部分將是諸如最新的困境債務基金之類的東西，其中資本是通過投資而不是承諾來支付的。但是那個資本——橡樹樹，在那個基金中，我們看到了非常好的投資機會。我相信我們現在對該基金的投資或承諾超過 40%。儘管公共市場表現出更廣泛的實力，但他們仍然看到了強大的私人借貸機會。因此，我認為我們希望看到那裡的資本投資保持良好的持續節奏。

And the balance would be stuff in our funds where we hold capital back because we have follow-on investment opportunities. So not necessarily thinking about new opportunities, but it's about follow-on investment opportunities into assets we already own or development we've already committed to. So you should expect to see that capital being steadily invested over the next couple of years.

餘額將是我們基金中的東西，因為我們有後續投資機會，所以我們會保留資金。因此，不一定要考慮新的機會，而是要對我們已經擁有的資產或我們已經承諾的開發進行後續投資機會。因此，您應該期望看到資本在未來幾年內得到穩定投資。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just one on the Global Transition Fund. Maybe just longer term, what do you view as the addressable market for this? Obviously, there's a lot of momentum in moving towards net neutrality or net zero. And clearly, a large market for more assets to be invested. But obviously, $7.5 billion is a nice -- is a large fund to start with. If you can maybe just give us your thoughts on what do you think the longer-term addressable market is for these types of investments and whether you think you might be able to actually create more funds without going through the investment period on this one.

好的。這很有幫助。然後可能只是全球轉型基金的一個。也許只是從長遠來看，您認為這方面的潛在市場是什麼？顯然，朝著網絡中立或零網絡發展的勢頭很大。顯然，這是一個可供投資更多資產的大市場。但顯然，75 億美元是一筆不錯的資金——從一個大基金開始。如果您可以就您認為這些類型的投資的長期潛在市場是什麼以及您是否認為您可以在不經歷該投資期的情況下實際創造更多資金的想法告訴我們您的想法。

On the last point, don't know. We'll have to see. Look, when we create a fund, we'll invest that capital, and then we'll move on to another one. How quickly we invest the money, we'll have to see.

最後一點，不知道。我們得看看。看，當我們創建一個基金時，我們將投資該資金，然後我們將轉向另一個。我們投資資金的速度有多快，我們將拭目以待。

As to the addressable market, we think it's very large. And we think that given our position and given what we've done with our business over the years, as you may know, we were a very carbon-intensive business 25 years ago. And today, we're net zero. So it -- having that pedigree, we think we can assist companies. We have the operational ability to do it. And what we have is capital -- we have capital to provide to businesses to assist them do this. And so we'll have to see how big it is, but there is a -- we think there's going to be a lot of opportunity in this transition. And it could become a very, very large business for us.

至於目標市場，我們認為它非常大。我們認為，鑑於我們的地位以及多年來我們在業務上所做的事情，您可能知道，我們在 25 年前是一家碳密集型企業。而今天，我們是淨零。所以它 - 擁有這樣的血統，我們認為我們可以幫助公司。我們有操作能力去做。我們擁有的是資本——我們有資本提供給企業來幫助他們做到這一點。所以我們必須看看它有多大，但有一個 - 我們認為在這個過渡中會有很多機會。對我們來說，它可能會成為一項非常非常大的業務。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Suzanne Fleming for closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話轉回給 Suzanne Fleming 做閉幕詞。

Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. And with that, we will end the call.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。這樣，我們將結束通話。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。