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Operator
Operator
Good morning and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Braskem's earnings conference call. We will discuss the third quarter of 2024. With us here today, we have Mr. Roberto Bischoff, Braskem's CEO; Mr. Pedro Freitas, CFO of Braskem; and Ms. Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence Director.
早上好,感謝您的等待。歡迎參加 Braskem 的財報電話會議。我們將討論 2024 年第三季。今天來到這裡的有 Braskem 執行長 Roberto Bischoff 先生; Braskem 財務長 Pedro Freitas 先生; Rosana Avolio 女士,投資者關係、策略規劃和企業市場情報總監。
We inform you that this event is being recorded. The presentation will be held in Portuguese with simultaneous translation into English. (Operator Instructions)
我們通知您此事件正在被記錄。演示將以葡萄牙語進行,並配有英語同聲傳譯。(操作員說明)
After Braskem's presentation, we will begin the Q&A session. At that point, more instructions will be provided. The audio of this event will be available on the Investor Relations website after it ends. We remind you that participants will be able to submit questions for Braskem which will be answered after the end of the conference by the IR Department.
Braskem 的演講結束後,我們將開始問答環節。屆時,將提供更多說明。本次活動的音訊將在活動結束後在投資者關係網站上提供。我們提醒您,與會者可以向 Braskem 提交問題,IR 部門將在會議結束後回答。
Before proceeding. We'd like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding Braskem's business prospects, projections, operational and financial goals constitute beliefs and assumptions of the company's management as well as information currently available to Braskem.
在繼續之前。我們想澄清的是,在本次電話會議期間可能發表的有關 Braskem 業務前景、預測、營運和財務目標的任何聲明均構成公司管理層的信念和假設以及 Braskem 目前掌握的資訊。
Future considerations are not a guarantee of performance and involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions as they refer to future events and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that general conditions, industry conditions and other operational factors may affect Braskem's future results and may lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such future conditions.
未來考慮因素並不是業績的保證,並且涉及風險、不確定性和假設,因為它們涉及未來事件,因此取決於可能發生或可能不會發生的情況。投資者和分析師應了解,整體狀況、產業狀況和其他營運因素可能會影響 Braskem 的未來業績,並可能導致結果與此類未來狀況中表達的結果有重大差異。
Now, I will pass the conference over to Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence Director, Ms. Avolio. You may begin your presentation.
現在,我將把會議交給投資者關係、策略規劃和企業市場情報總監 Rosana Avolio 女士。您可以開始您的簡報了。
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in Braskem's earnings call. Today we will present the results for the third quarter of 2024. According to the agenda on slide 3, we will begin with the company's main financial highlights for the period which can be found on slide number four. In the third quarter of 2024, the petrochemical scenario continued to show a trajectory of increasing spreads in the international market.
女士們、先生們,大家好。感謝您參加 Braskem 的財報電話會議。今天我們將公佈 2024 年第三季的業績。根據幻燈片 3 上的議程,我們將從公司本期間的主要財務亮點開始,這些亮點可以在第四張幻燈片上找到。2024年第三季度,國際市場石化情境持續呈現價差加大的軌跡。
This trajectory is mainly explained by the better balance between global supply and demand associated with the effects of the conflict in the Red Sea that still impact global logistics, resulting in higher maritime freight rates and therefore higher prices in the international market.
這一軌跡主要是由於紅海衝突的影響導致全球供需之間更好的平衡,紅海衝突仍然影響全球物流,導致海運運費上漲,從而導致國際市場價格上漲。
In addition, scheduled and unscheduled shutdowns in several regions impacted the level of supply contributing to the increase in spreads in the international market. In the scenario, combined with the company's continued implementation of financial preservation initiatives. Recurring EBITDA was $432 million, 35% higher than in the second quarter and 130% higher when compared to the third quarter of last year.
此外,一些地區的計劃內和計劃外停產影響了供應水平,導致國際市場價差增加。在此情境下,結合公司持續實施的財務保全措施。經常性 EBITDA 為 4.32 億美元,比第二季成長 35%,比去年第三季成長 130%。
Operating cash generation was $75 million in the period. While recurring cash generation resulted in a consumption of $199 million, mainly due to the higher concentration of interest payments on debt securities issued in the international market which were partially offset by the receipt of approximately BRL208 million in relation to the conclusion of the sale of control of CTRO.
同期營運現金產生量為 7,500 萬美元。經常性現金產生導致消耗 1.99 億美元,主要是由於國際市場上發行的債務證券的利息支付更加集中,部分抵消了與出售控制權有關的約 2.08 億雷亞爾的收入CTRO 的。
Regarding liquidity, Braskem cash position was $2.4 billion at the end of the quarter. Sufficient to cover debt maturities in the next 52 months without considering the available international revolving credit line in the amount of $1 billion.
就流動性而言,本季末 Braskem 現金部位為 24 億美元。足以償還未來 52 個月內的債務到期,而不考慮 10 億美元的可用國際循環信貸額度。
In the quarter, the corporate debt profile remained very ill located with an average maturity of about 11 years and with more than 65% of the corporate debt maturing as of 2030. Due to the better recurring EBITDA, the company's leverage was approximately 5.76 times a reduction of 1.03 times compared to the previous quarter.
本季度,企業債務狀況仍然非常糟糕,平均期限約為 11 年,超過 65% 的企業債務將於 2030 年到期。由於經常性 EBITDA 較好,公司槓桿約 5.76 倍,較上季減少 1.03 倍。
Throughout the third quarter, the company continued to implement initiatives focused on resilience and financial health with a positive impact of about $212 million in EBITDA and about $279 million in cash generation which has been fundamental for facing the petrochemicals low cycle.
在整個第三季度,該公司繼續實施專注於韌性和財務健康的舉措,對EBITDA 產生了約2.12 億美元的積極影響,並產生了約2.79 億美元的現金生成,這對於應對石化低週期至關重要。
Moving on to the next slide. I will comment on the company's main operating results in the quarter. In the first nine months of 2024, the average global accident frequency rate was 0.99 events per million hours worked a reduction of 17% compared to the same period in 2023.
轉到下一張投影片。我對公司本季主要經營業績進行點評。2024年前9個月,全球平均事故頻率為每百萬工作小時0.99起,較2023年同期下降17%。
Evidencing the non-negotiable commitment that the company has with the safety of its members and of its operations. Regarding operational performance, the resumption of operations at the petrochemical plant of Rio Grande do Sul after the extreme weather event that occurred in May was fundamental for the increased utilization rates of the Brazil segment.
證明公司對其成員及其營運的安全性做出不可協商的承諾。經營績效方面,南里奧格蘭德石化廠在5月極端天氣事件後恢復運營,對巴西板塊產能利用率的提升至關重要。
In the quarter highlighting the increase of 60% points in the utilization rate of green ethylene. In the United States and Europe segment, the lower production in the segment is explained by the maintenance shutdown at the propylene plant in Europe which was partially offset by the increased level of production in the United States.
本季綠色乙烯利用率成長了60%。在美國和歐洲部分,該部分產量下降的原因是歐洲丙烯工廠的維護停工,但美國產量的增加部分抵消了這種影響。
In Mexico, the stoppage at one of the polyethylene plants associated with lower ethane receipts due to the international suppliers turnaround contributed to a reduction of 5% points in the utilization rate in the quarter when compared to the previous quarter. Finally, the higher utilization rates of the Brazil segment contributed to a higher sales volume in the period with emphasis on the sales of resins and the main chemicals in the Brazilian market and total green polyethylene. Now let's move on to the next slide.
在墨西哥,由於國際供應商周轉,一家聚乙烯工廠因乙烷收入下降而停工,導致本季利用率較上一季下降 5%。最後,巴西業務的較高利用率導致期內銷量增加,重點是巴西市場的樹脂和主要化學品以及綠色聚乙烯的銷售。現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。
I will now present the operational performance of the company segments. Starting with the Brazil segment on slide number 7. The utilization rate of Brazilian petrochemical plants increased by 2% points compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to the resumption of operations at the Triumphal Petrochemical Complex in Rio Grande do Sul interrupted in May due to the extreme weather event that hit the state.
我現在介紹一下公司各部門的經營績效。從第 7 號幻燈片上的巴西部分開始。巴西石化工廠利用率季增2個百分點,主要是由於南里奧格蘭德州凱旋石化綜合體5月因該州極端天氣事件中斷而恢復運作。
Sales volume increased by 6% in the Brazil market, mainly due to the higher sales volume of propylene -- polypropylene, due to the higher demand from the hygiene and cleaning sectors. In addition, due to greater commercial opportunities in the civil construction and sanitation sectors, there was an increase in the volume of PVC sales. Regarding the result, the segments recurrings EBITDA was $335 million in the quarter, an increase of 45% when compared to the previous quarter.
巴西市場銷售成長6%,主要是由於衛生和清潔產業的需求增加,導致丙烯-聚丙烯的銷售量增加。此外,由於土木建築和衛生領域的商業機會增加,PVC銷量增加。就結果而言,本季該部門的經常性 EBITDA 為 3.35 億美元,較上一季成長 45%。
The result was positively impacted by the higher sales volume and the higher spreads in the international market. In addition to the depreciation of the average real of the period against the dollar since the segment's revenues are linked to the international references in dollars, while part of its cost structure is in reals.
這一結果受到國際市場銷售增加和價差擴大的正面影響。除了當期平均雷亞爾兌美元貶值之外,因為該部門的收入與美元的國際參考值掛鉤,而其部分成本結構則以雷亞爾為單位。
Now let's move on to the next slide. Regarding green ethylene, it's important to highlight the utilization rate in the quarter, which reached 95% an increase of 60% points compared to the second quarter of 2024, which was impacted by the scheduled shutdown due to the extreme weather event that hit the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the period.
現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。關於綠色乙烯,值得注意的是,該季度的利用率達到了 95%,與 2024 年第二季度相比增長了 60 個百分點,該季度受到該州極端天氣事件導致的計劃停產的影響這一時期的南里奧格蘭德州。
In the sense, the volume of sales of green polyethylene increased by 6% explained by the higher production and partially offset by the recomposition of inventories in the period. Next slide. In the United States and Europe segment utilization rates in the last quarter was lower in relation to the second quarter of 2024 by 2% points, mainly due to the scheduled shutdowns at the plants in Europe, partially offset by the production in the United States.
從某種意義上說,綠色聚乙烯的銷售量成長了 6%,原因是產量增加,但部分被期內庫存重組所抵消。下一張投影片。在美國和歐洲,上一季的利用率較 2024 年第二季下降了 2 個百分點,這主要是由於歐洲工廠按計畫關閉,部分被美國的生產所抵銷。
As for sales, the volume traded remained in line with the previous quarter considering higher polypropylene spreads in Europe and inline spreads in the United States. And the scenario, the segments recurring EBITDA was $71 million, 53% higher than in the second quarter of 2024.
至於銷售,考慮到歐洲聚丙烯價差較高和美國線內價差較高,交易量與上一季持平。在這種情況下,該部門的經常性 EBITDA 為 7,100 萬美元,比 2024 年第二季高出 53%。
Now let's move on to the next slide and I will comment on the Mexico segment. In Mexico, the utilization rate was 74%, 4% points lower than that in the last quarter impacted by the shutdown of the international ethane supplier program and also the schedule shutdown of a polyethylene plant during the third quarter of 2024.
現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片,我將評論墨西哥部分。在墨西哥,受國際乙烷供應商計畫關閉以及聚乙烯工廠計畫於2024年第三季關閉的影響,利用率為74%,較上季下降4個百分點。
Sales decreased by 11% compared to the last quarter, due to the inventory management in the transformation chain associated with a greater supply of polyethylene producers in the region and the expectation of a reduction in polyethylene prices in the international market in the following periods.
銷售額較上季下降11%,原因是與該地區聚乙烯生產商供應增加相關的轉型鏈庫存管理,以及預計未來一段時期國際市場聚乙烯價格將下降。
On the other hand, the increase of polyethylene spreads in the international market associated with the higher consumption of domestic feeds to the period boosted the result of the third quarter of 2024. In this context, recurring EBITDA was $80 million, 44% higher than the results reported in the second quarter of 2024.
另一方面,國際市場聚乙烯價差的增加與國內飼料消費量增加有關,提振了 2024 年第三季的表現。在此背景下,經常性 EBITDA 為 8,000 萬美元,比 2024 年第二季報告的結果高出 44%。
Next, starting from slide 11, I will share the company's consolidated financial performance. In the third quarter of 2024, Braskem's recurring EBITDA was $432 million, an increase of 35% compared to the second quarter of 2024. It's worth noting that this is the company's best quarterly EBITDA, since the second quarter of 2022. In addition, in the nine months of the year, the company's recurring EBITDA increased by 84% compared to the same period in 2023.
接下來,從投影片11開始,我將分享公司的合併財務表現。2024年第三季度,Braskem的經常性EBITDA為4.32億美元,較2024年第二季成長35%。值得注意的是,這是該公司自2022年第二季以來最好的季度EBITDA。此外,今年前九個月,該公司的經常性 EBITDA 較 2023 年同期成長了 84%。
The higher spreads in the international market positively impacted this result with emphasis on polyethylene in Brazil and Mexico, (inaudible) you see in Brazil and polypropylene in Europe. This increase in spreads can be explained by the greater balance between global supply and demand in the period and by conjunctural factors such as the logistic restrictions resulting from the conflict in the Red Sea which influenced the price of resonance in the international market.
國際市場上較高的價差對這一結果產生了積極影響,重點是巴西和墨西哥的聚乙烯(聽不清楚),您在巴西看到的和歐洲的聚丙烯。價差上升的原因可以解釋為:該時期全球供需更加平衡,以及紅海衝突造成的物流限制等綜合因素,影響了國際市場的價格共振。
In addition, the lower price of feedstock such as naphtha and ethane also contributed to this result. Finally, the increase in sales volume in the Brazilian market and exports from the Brazil segment also contributed positively to the increase in EBITDA in the quarter. Now let's move on to the next slide.
此外,石腦油和乙烷等原料價格較低也促成了這個結果。最後,巴西市場銷售的成長以及巴西板塊的出口也對本季 EBITDA 的成長做出了積極貢獻。現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。
Operating cash generation was BRL416 million in the quarter. This result is mainly explained by the higher recurring EBITDA in the quarter, which was offset by the negative variation in working capital due to the higher inventory of feedstock in the period and the lower number of days of accounts payable explained by the drop in the price of naphtha in the international market.
本季營運現金產生量為 4.16 億雷亞爾。這結果主要是由於本季經常性EBITDA 較高,但該季度的經常性EBITDA 較高,但由於該期間原料庫存較高而造成的營運資金負變動以及價格下跌導致的應付帳款天數較低所抵銷國際市場石腦油。
The recurring cash flow resulted in a consumption of approximately BRL1.1 billion, due to the lower operating cash generation and the higher interest payment explained by the semi-annual payments of debt securities issued in the international market by the company which are concentrated in the first and third quarters of the year. Additionally, in the third quarter of 2024, Braskem concluded the sales of control of Cetrel for a total of approximately BRL293 million of which approximately BRL208 million were received in the quarter.
經常性現金流導致消耗約 11 億雷亞爾,原因是營運現金產生量較低,以及公司在國際市場上發行的債務證券半年支付一次,利息支付較高,這些債券主要集中在今年第一和第三季。此外,Braskem 在 2024 年第三季完成了 Cetrel 控制權的出售,總價值約為 2.93 億雷亞爾,其中本季度收到了約 2.08 億雷亞爾。
Finally considering the disbursement related to Alagoas' cash consumption totaled about BRL1.9 billion in the third quarter of the year.
最後考慮到今年第三季與阿拉戈斯現金消耗相關的支出總計約 19 億雷亞爾。
Now let's move on to the next slide. At the end of the quarter, Braskem's debt profile remained located with an average debt term of about 11 years with 65% of the debt being concentrated as of 2030. The company's liquidity levels is sufficient to cover its obligations for the next 52 months.
現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。截至本季末,Braskem 的債務狀況仍維持在平均債務期限約 11 年的水平,其中 65% 的債務集中在 2030 年。該公司的流動性水準足以承擔未來 52 個月的債務。
At the end of the quarter, corporate leverage was 5.76 times a reduction compared to the previous quarter due to the better EBITDA recorded in the period. In addition, it's important to highlight the issuance carried out by the company in the capital market in October. The new bond in the amount of $850 million matures in 2034 with a cost of 8% per year.
截至本季末,由於期內 EBITDA 有所改善,企業槓桿率較上季下降 5.76 倍。此外,值得重點關注的是公司10月在資本市場的發行。新債券金額為 8.5 億美元,將於 2034 年到期,年利率為 8%。
The operation was issued to the purchase of hybrid bonds maturing in 2081 and increasing liquidity for the debt maturities for '24 and '25. Now on slide 14, I will comment on the main advances in the work fronts in Alagoas starting from slide 15.
該操作旨在購買 2081 年到期的混合債券,並增加 24 年和 25 年到期債務的流動性。現在在幻燈片 14 上,我將從幻燈片 15 開始評論阿拉戈斯工作前沿的主要進展。
Regarding the plan for closing and monitoring the salt cavities by the end of the third quarter, 16 cavities were allocated to the sand filling group. Following the recommendation of specialists, the decision was made to fill with sand, three cavities previously planned to be closed by plugging. These are cavities 9, 12 and 16. By the end of September of this group, six cavities are fully filled while three are in progress and seven are in the activity planning phase.
計畫第三季末關閉監測鹽洞,分配給填砂組16個鹽洞。根據專家的建議,決定用沙子填充先前計劃通過堵塞封閉的三個空腔。這些是型腔 9、12 和 16。截至 9 月底,該組已有 6 個空腔已完全填滿,其中 3 個空腔正在進行中,7 個處於活動規劃階段。
The natural filling group has a total of six cavities, five of which are completely filled and one cavity is in the validation phase of filling. Finally, of the 13 cavities that are in the buffering and pressurization group, nine are already pressurized and are being monitored while the pressurization of the remaining four is in progress.
自然填充組共有6個腔體,其中5個腔體已完全填充,1個腔體處於填充驗證階段。最後,在緩衝和加壓組的 13 個腔體中,有 9 個腔體已經加壓並正在接受監控,而其餘 4 個腔體的加壓正在進行中。
For this front BRL4.3 billion have already been provisioned so far of which BRL2.9 billion have already been dispersed and BRL1.5 billion are in balance at the end of the third quarter of 2024. The current closure plan is estimated to be completed by the end of 2026.
到目前為止,已經為此預撥了 43 億雷亞爾,其中 29 億雷亞爾已經分散,到 2024 年第三季末,餘額為 15 億雷亞爾。目前的關閉計畫預計將於 2026 年底完成。
Moving on to the next slide. Regarding the progress of social and urban measures of the 11 urban mobility projects planned five have already been completed. Regarding the actions in unoccupied areas, the project on the Mutange Slope reached about 82% of execution.
轉到下一張投影片。關於社會和城市措施的進展情況,在規劃的 11 個城市交通項目中,有 5 個已經完成。在無人區行動方面,Mutange 斜坡計畫的執行率達到了約 82%。
By the end of July, together with the Flexal agreement, the financial support program reached about 99.4% of the proposals paid, while 14 of the 23 socioeconomic measures provided for in the term of agreement have already been implemented. By the end of September 2024, the percentage of execution of the residents reallocation program reached 99.8%.
截至7月底,連同Flexal協議,財政支持計畫已達到已支付提案的約99.4%,協議期限內規定的23項社會經濟措施中的14項已實施。截至2024年9月,居民安置計畫執行率達99.8%。
As for the proposals related to the financial compensation and relocation support program more than 99.9% of the estimated proposals have already been submitted and about 98.7% have already been accepted and about 97.8% have already been paid.
至於與經濟補償和搬遷支援計畫有關的建議,預計建議的99.9%以上已提交,約98.7%已被接受,約97.8%已支付。
Thus, at the end of September 2024, the total provisions for the Alagoas event were about BRL16.3 billion of which about BRL11.5 billion have already been disbursed and approximately BRL715 million was recorded in other obligations to be paid. In addition, approximately BRL600 million were recorded in the present value adjustment. And finally, the total balance provisions at the end of the third quarter of 2024 was of BRL4.8 billion.
因此,截至 2024 年 9 月底,阿拉戈斯事件的撥備總額約為 163 億雷亞爾,其中約 115 億雷亞爾已支付,約 7.15 億雷亞爾記錄在其他待支付義務中。此外,現值調整中也記錄了約6億雷亞爾。最後,2024 年第三季末的總餘額準備金為 48 億雷亞爾。
Now, let's move on to the next slide. Below, we will present the operating outlook for the next quarter. As for the company's operations maintenance shutdown scheduled for the next quarter in polyethylene and PVC plants may directly affect the use of ethylene. Thus, a lower utilization rate is expected in the Brazil segment.
現在,讓我們轉到下一張投影片。下面,我們將介紹下一季的營運前景。至於該公司定於下個季度進行的聚乙烯和PVC裝置的營運維護停產可能會直接影響乙烯的使用。因此,預計巴西市場的利用率較低。
Regarding sales, the prospect of lower demand due to the typical seasonality of the period contributes to the expectation of lower sales volume for the quarter. In the United States and Europe segment, utilization rates are expected to be in line with the previous quarter due to the production management in the United States, which is in line with the lower demand expected in the period and partially offset by the higher utilization rate of the Europe segment explained by the resumption of operations after maintenance shutdowns.
就銷售而言,由於該時期的典型季節性因素導致需求下降的前景導致了本季銷量下降的預期。在美國和歐洲部分,由於美國的生產管理,利用率預計將與上季持平,這與期內預期的較低需求相符,並被較高的利用率部分抵消歐洲部分的解釋是維修停工後恢復營運.
In this life, it's expected that the sales volume of the segment will remain in line with the previous one. Finally, in Mexico, the expectation for the third quarter is for an increase in production due to the expectation of stabilization of ethane supply due to the return of the international supplier after the maintenance shutdown in the third quarter.
今生,預計該板塊銷量將與上一輩持平。最後,在墨西哥,由於第三季檢修停工後國際供應商回歸,預計乙烷供應將趨於穩定,預計第三季產量將增加。
And also the return of polyethylene plant that was under maintenance in the third quarter of 2024. Regarding sales, the higher product availability compared to the previous quarter and associated with the expectation of lower demand in the period will result in the perspective of maintaining the volume sowed.
正在維護的聚乙烯工廠也將於 2024 年第三季恢復運作。就銷售而言,與上一季相比,產品供應量較高,且與本季需求下降的預期相關,因此播種量可望維持不變。
Below, I will comment on the perspective of international spreads. In general, the expectation for the next quarter is for lower spreads in the international petrochemical market due to the seasonality of the period followed by recovery in the first quarter of 2025.
下面,我從國際點差的角度來評論一下。總體而言,由於該時期的季節性,預計下一季國際石化市場價差將較低,隨後將在2025年第一季復甦。
Regarding the polyethylene market in the United States, the seasonality of demand associated with the greater availability of the product due to the resumption of the production in the petrochemical plant in the United States influenced lower prices in the next quarter.
美國聚乙烯市場方面,由於美國石化廠恢復生產,產品供應增加,導致需求季節性,影響了下一季價格走低。
As for the price of naphtha, the expectation is for its maintenance resulting in lower spreads in the period. In the United States and Europe segment, polypropylene should also be impacted by the lower demand typical of the period. In the United States, PP supply is expected to increase due to the resumption of petrochemical plants that were under maintenance which could lead to a drop prices.
至於石腦油價格,預期維持不變,導致期內價差走低。在美國和歐洲市場,聚丙烯也應受到該時期典型需求較低的影響。在美國,由於正在維護的石化工廠恢復運營,PP 供應預計將增加,這可能導致價格下跌。
On the other hand, an increase in the price of propylene is expected caused by the start of the schedule shutdown season on propane dehydro generators in the United States which contributes to lower spreads. In Europe, the higher supply of polypropylene expected with the highest import inflow into the region may also contribute to lower spreads.
另一方面,由於美國丙烷脫氫發電機計劃停產季節的開始,預計丙烯價格將會上漲,導致價差下降。在歐洲,預計聚丙烯供應量增加以及該地區進口量最高也可能導致價差下降。
Regarding polyethylene spread in Mexico, in addition to the prospect of lower prices of polyethylene, a gradual recovery of the prices of ethane is expected due to the return of operations in the petrochemical plants that were under maintenance and a gradual increase in export capacity from the United States.
墨西哥聚乙烯價差方面,除了聚乙烯價格預期走低外,由於正在檢修的石化工廠恢復運作以及墨西哥出口能力逐漸增加,預計乙烷價格將逐步回升。
At the beginning of 2025, demand is expected to return to healthy levels while the cost of feedstocks such as naphtha and ethane will remain at the same levels as that of the end of 2024. Contributing to higher spreads in the first quarter of 2025.
2025年初,需求預計將恢復到健康水平,而石腦油和乙烷等原料成本將維持在2024年底的水平。導致 2025 年第一季利差上升。
Now let's move on to the next slide. As a last topic, I will comment on the main advances in the company's strategy as of slide 21. The implementation of the long term corporate strategy continued to advance throughout the quarter. On the avenue of growth of the traditional business, the launch of Braskem's first leasing ship took place.
現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。作為最後一個主題,我將評論截至幻燈片 21 的公司策略的主要進展。整個季度公司長期策略的實施持續推進。在傳統業務成長的道路上,Braskem 的第一艘租賃船下水了。
The brilliant future ship is in the final stages of construction and will enter service in January 2025. The dedicated logistics with an estimated duration of 15 years will be used in the transport of ethane from the United States to Mexico, ensuring stability for Braskem [Iisa] also in on this avenue, the construction of attaining port terminal in the Mexico reached the physical progress of 85% represents an important advance towards the completion of the project.
這艘輝煌的未來船正處於建造的最後階段,將於2025年1月投入使用。預計工期15年的專用物流將用於從美國到墨西哥的乙烷運輸,確保Braskem [Iisa]的穩定。該專案的完成取得了重要進展。
Regarding Bio-based avenue, an important highlight was the inauguration of the Center for Innovation in Renewables in the United States located in Lexington in the Boston Biotechnology and Innovation Ecosystem through an investment of approximately $20 million. This new center expands Braskem's capacity in research and development in the areas of biotechnology, catalysis and process engineering.
在生物基方面,一個重要的亮點是投資約2,000萬美元位於波士頓生物技術和創新生態系統列剋星敦的美國再生能源創新中心的落成。這個新中心擴大了 Braskem 在生物技術、催化和製程工程領域的研發能力。
In the same period, Braskem's signed the FEED agreement with Toyo Engineering Corporation which will develop the extended basic engineering and CapEx estimate for the potential construction of green plane of 200,000 tons in Thailand. Finally in the (inaudible) avenue, Braskem recognized for its performance in on sustainability and circularity being ranked second in Bloomberg's NEF 2024 ranking of circular economy for the second consecutive year.
同期,Braskem 與 Toyo Engineering Corporation 簽署了 FEED 協議,該協議將為泰國潛在建造 20 萬噸綠色飛機開發擴展基礎工程和資本支出估算。最後,在(聽不清楚)大道上,Braskem 因其在永續發展和循環性方面的表現而獲得認可,連續第二年在彭博 NEF 2024 年循環經濟排名中排名第二。
This ranking evaluated the circular economy objectives of 40 companies including 20 brand owners and 20 plastic producers. In the next slides, I will comment on the progress of the company's 2024 priorities. Among the priorities defined for the year 2024, the commitment with resilience and financial health continued to advance totaling at the end of the third quarter, approximately $51 million in a positive impact on EBITDA due to the commercial strategy of prioritizing sales with better margins and $76 million through cost reduction and expense reduction actions.
該排名評估了40家公司的循環經濟目標,其中包括20家品牌商和20家塑膠生產商。在接下來的幻燈片中,我將評論公司 2024 年優先事項的進展。在為2024 年確定的優先事項中,彈性和財務健康的承諾繼續推進,截至第三季末,由於優先考慮利潤率更高的銷售和76 美元的銷售的商業策略,對EBITDA 產生了約5,100 萬美元的正面影響。
In addition, we captured about $220 million through the prioritization of CapEx initiatives and about $59 million with the optimization of working capital. Finally, $85 million were obtained through the various monetization agenda. Now let's move on to the next slide.
此外,我們透過資本支出計畫的優先順序獲得了約 2.2 億美元,透過優化營運資本獲得了約 5,900 萬美元。最終,透過各種貨幣化議程獲得了 8500 萬美元。現在讓我們轉到下一張投影片。
The defense of competitiveness of the Brazilian chemical and petrochemical industry is an important agenda of the company which is the sixth largest chemical industry in the world responsible for 11% of the Brazilian in this industrial GDP and capable of generating about 2 million direct and indirect jobs in the country despite its importance based on 2023 data from the Financial Chemical Industry Association.
捍衛巴西化學和石化工業的競爭力是該公司的重要議程。協會2023 年的數據,它在該國很重要。
It's observed that the average utilization sector reached the lowest rate in 18 years continuously reducing over the period. In this scenario, we highlight the approval of temporary change in the import rate in Brazil for the chemical and petrochemical products by Camex including the increase of 12.6% to 20% for polyethylene, polypropylene and PVC produced by the company.
據觀察,產業平均利用率達到18年來的最低水平,期間持續下降。在這種情況下,我們將重點放在 Camex 批准臨時調整巴西化學和石化產品的進口稅率,包括將公司生產的聚乙烯、聚丙烯和 PVC 的進口稅率提高 12.6% 至 20%。
This approval represents an important step towards defending the competitiveness of the Brazilian industry and will result in positive impacts for the chemical and petrochemical industry. Now, moving on to the next slide. Finally, we will update on the main advances of the priorities for the year. In Maceio, progress was made on all workfronts totally a dispersed balance of more than BRL11.5 billion by the end of the third quarter of 2024.
此次批准是捍衛巴西工業競爭力的重要一步,將對化學和石化產業產生正面影響。現在,轉到下一張投影片。最後,我們將介紹今年重點工作的主要進展。在馬塞約,所有工作方面均取得了進展,到 2024 年第三季末,分散餘額超過 115 億雷亞爾。
As previously mentioned, the financial resilience actions total a positive impact of about $212 million in EBITDA and about $279 million in cash generation in the optimization of the asset operation strategy. The process of sale of control of the Cetrel was concluded through the receipt of approximately BRL208 million of the BRL293 million related to the investment agreement signed with SOVI and GRI.
如前所述,財務彈性行動在優化資產營運策略方面總共對 EBITDA 產生了約 2.12 億美元的正面影響,對現金產生了約 2.79 億美元的正面影響。Cetrel 控制權的出售過程是透過收到與 SOVI 和 GRI 簽署的投資協議相關的 2.93 億雷亞爾中的約 2.08 億雷亞爾而完成的。
In the quarter, the approval of the increase in the import rate in Brazil for some chemical and petrochemical products by Camex represented an important advance in the agenda to defend the competitiveness of the Brazilian chemical industry. Regarding the company's investment strategy, the inauguration of the Renewables Innovation Center in the United States is an important step forward for the bio based growth avenue contributing to the development and acceleration of new solutions.
本季度,Camex批准提高巴西部分化學和石化產品的進口稅率,代表著捍衛巴西化工產業競爭力議程的重要進展。就公司的投資策略而言,美國再生能源創新中心的落成是生物基成長途徑向前邁出的重要一步,有助於新解決方案的開發和加速。
Additionally, signing between Braskem Siam and Toyo Engineering for the FEEDs execution of the construction project for the green ethylene is also an important step in the company's growth trajectory. Finally, in Mexico, we maintained our efforts to complete the construction of the ethane terminal, achieving a fiscal progress of 87%.
此外,Braskem Siam 與 Toyo Engineering 簽署綠色乙烯建設項目 FEED 執行協議也是該公司發展軌跡中的重要一步。最後,在墨西哥,我們繼續努力,完成了乙烷接收站的建設,實現了87%的財政進度。
Now let's move on to the final slide. Before we close, I would like to invite everyone to participate in Braskem's Day 2024. An important moment of interaction between the market and the company's main leaders.
現在讓我們轉到最後一張投影片。在結束之前,我想邀請大家參加 2024 年布拉斯科姆日。市場與公司主要領導互動的重要時刻。
The event will be completely virtual and will take place on November 25. We will forward the invitation with more details soon for all participants of this call and subscribers to our mailing list. Thus, we conclude the presentation of Braskem result for the third quarter of 2024. Thank you very much for your attention and we will now start the Q&A session.
活動將完全虛擬進行,將於 11 月 25 日舉行。我們將盡快向本次電話會議的所有參與者以及我們的郵件清單訂閱者轉發包含更多詳細資訊的邀請。至此,我們結束了 Braskem 2024 年第三季業績的公佈。非常感謝您的關注,我們現在開始問答環節。
Operator
Operator
I would now like to pass the floor to Mr. Roberto Bischoff. Please, Mr. Bischoff, you may proceed.
現在我想請羅伯托·比肖夫先生發言。畢肖夫先生,請繼續。
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Hi, sorry about that. Good morning, everyone. Before we move on to the Q&A session, I'd like to make a few comments about my leaving the CEO position at Braskem. This is part of a structured succession project that was discussed and aligned with the controlling shareholders of Braskem.
嗨,對此感到抱歉。大家早安。在我們進入問答環節之前,我想就我離開 Braskem 執行長一職發表一些評論。這是與 Braskem 控股股東討論並協調一致的結構化繼承項目的一部分。
During my trajectory of over 40 years at Braskem, I am leaving now very fulfilled with and happy with how the company has been performing and delivering, especially over the past two years when I had the pleasure of being in charge.
在 Braskem 工作 40 多年的歷程中,我現在離開時對公司的表現和交付感到非常滿意和高興,特別是在過去兩年裡,我有幸擔任負責人。
And so I would like to thank our shareholders and our clients for the trust that you have in me. And I'd also like to thank our company members, partners and suppliers for your skill and trust in tackling this downtrend cycle.
因此,我要感謝我們的股東和客戶對我的信任。我還要感謝我們的公司成員、合作夥伴和供應商在應對這一下降趨勢週期方面的技巧和信任。
Now, let's actually move on to the Q&A session.
現在,讓我們真正進入問答環節。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)
女士們,先生們。我們現在開始問答環節。(操作員說明)
Rodrigue Almeida, Santander.
羅德里格·阿爾梅達,桑坦德銀行。
Rodrigo Almeida - Analyst
Rodrigo Almeida - Analyst
Good morning. I have three questions. First is working capital. We saw a significant increase during the quarter and stocks of inputs. Could you tell us whether this is set to normalize in the next quarter?
早安.我有三個問題。首先是營運資金。我們看到本季投入品庫存顯著增加。您能否告訴我們這種情況是否會在下個季度恢復正常?
The next question is about the scheduled downtime for 2025. Is this likely to make the '25 CapEx at least a little bit higher than the guidance that was indicated for this year? And thirdly, are you already seeing any kind of an effect in the increase to import tariffs? I think this was mentioned, but if you could comment a little bit about that I would appreciate it. Thank you.
下一個問題是關於 2025 年計劃的停機時間。這是否可能使 25 年的資本支出至少比今年的指引高一點?第三,您是否已經看到進口關稅增加產生了任何影響?我認為有人提到了這一點,但如果您能對此發表一些評論,我將不勝感激。謝謝。
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Hi. good morning. Thank you, Rodrigo for your question. So, working capital, it was primarily in inputs. We had a reduction in our payment deadline, our payment term and also an increase in price and volume. So this did consume a little bit more of working capital. There was also a specific effect from a naphtha load that came in this year.
你好。早安.謝謝羅德里戈的提問。因此,營運資金主要是投入。我們縮短了付款期限、付款期限,並提高了價格和數量。所以這確實消耗了更多的營運資金。今年的石腦油負荷也產生了特殊影響。
I think at the end of the day, the thing is working capital does normalize. We do not have any forecast for an increase. In fact, for Q4, there may be a drop. In other words, a generation of cash based on working capital because our spread is going to be lower. We've got a little bit of downtime scheduled for Q4. So our working capital is going to be a little bit better.
我認為歸根究底,營運資金確實正常化了。我們沒有任何增加的預測。事實上,第四季可能會出現下降。換句話說,基於營運資金的現金生成,因為我們的利差將會更低。我們在第四季度安排了一些停機時間。所以我們的營運資金會好一點。
With regard to the scheduled downtime, we we've got -- next year, we've got Braskem (inaudible) doing its first downtime after nine years in operation, which is a huge accomplishment by Braskem (inaudible) to keep working nonstop for so long, especially for the past six years, with a highlight during that time, we've done something similar here in Brazil as well extending our downtime, our period between downtime that was we managed to get a significant improvement. Also, the Ducatis plant is also going to have a little bit of downtime next year.
關於預定的停機時間,明年,我們讓 Braskem(聽不清楚)在運行九年後進行首次停機,這是 Braskem(聽不清楚)繼續不間斷工作的巨大成就這麼長時間以來,特別是在過去的六年裡,其中一個亮點是,我們在巴西做了類似的事情,並延長了我們的停機時間,我們在停機之間的時間段,我們設法取得了顯著的進步。此外,杜卡迪斯工廠明年也將有一些停工。
So these are the two that we've got scheduled. With regard to the '25 CapEx, we don't have a number yet. All of the maintenance CapEx should be in line with what we had this year. There may be some variance up or down, but I don't think the number is going to be very different from what we had in '24. We're always prioritizing safe investments and investments into safety as well and we've also got a little bit of strategic CapEx.
這就是我們已經安排好的兩個。關於 25 年資本支出,我們還沒有具體數字。所有維護資本支出應與我們今年的情況一致。可能會有一些上下差異,但我認為這個數字與 24 年的數字不會有很大不同。我們始終優先考慮安全投資以及安全投資,我們還有一些戰略資本支出。
But the top project in the queue is the Thailand project. We don't think we're going to make a decision about investments at least during the first semester, first half of the year. So we have so far is just engineering. It's a small investment.
但排名第一的項目是泰國項目。我們認為至少在今年上半年的第一學期我們不會做出投資決定。所以到目前為止我們還只是工程。這是一筆很小的投資。
And after that, closer to the middle of '25, when we will make decisions about the investment into that project. And again, this investment that's going to be in line with this year. We, we don't consider Brasa Modesa because Brasca Modesa has scheduled downtime for next year. So if you do look at the raw numbers, it's going to be a little bit different. Usually it's around $30 billion and for this year, it's probably going to double.
之後,接近 25 年中期,我們將就該專案的投資做出決定。再說一遍,這項投資將與今年保持一致。我們,我們不考慮布拉斯卡莫德薩,因為布拉斯卡莫德薩已安排明年停工。因此,如果你確實查看原始數據,你會發現情況略有不同。通常約 300 億美元,今年可能會增加一倍。
With regard to import, use, import tariffs. We have some work that we've been doing to revisit that balance between the margin, service, price and volume. So we are doing that product by product. For this year, we believe that between recovering market share and perhaps some kind of an effect from the margin direction. We have some additional $30 million in our results for Q4, 2024. For last year, well, we have three additional quarters of impact and then we'll see what happens.
關於進口、使用、進口關稅。我們一直在做一些工作來重新審視利潤、服務、價格和數量之間的平衡。所以我們正在逐個產品地做這個事情。今年,我們認為,市佔率的恢復可能與利潤率方向的某種影響有關。我們在 2024 年第四季的業績中額外增加了 3,000 萬美元。去年,我們還有另外三個季度的影響,然後我們將看看會發生什麼。
There's another effect that I think is important in the import fees because many of our clients also had changes to their import taxes. So that brings an important effect in terms of sale volume. So our volume for our clients should recover, which is also going to have an impact on our centers.
我認為進口費用中還有一個很重要的影響,因為我們的許多客戶的進口稅也改變了。因此,這對銷量產生了重要影響。因此,我們的客戶量應該會恢復,這也會對我們的中心產生影響。
This is an effect that we think we will be seeing in Q4 next year. It's an indirect event, we cannot quantify to what extent exactly numerically it's going to occur, but it is something that is in our radar. Perfect. Thank you, Rodrigo.
我們認為我們將在明年第四季看到這種影響。這是一個間接事件,我們無法準確地量化它會發生到什麼程度,但它是我們雷達中的東西。完美的。謝謝你,羅德里戈。
Operator
Operator
Vicente Falanga, Bradesco BBI.
文森法蘭加 (Vicente Falanga),布拉德斯科 BBI。
Vicente Falanga - Analyst
Vicente Falanga - Analyst
Hi, thanks. Thank you Roberto for your work and your message. Thank you Rosana. I have a question. In the outlook you gave us, you mentioned the expected downturn for next year, expected reduction in volume. What is that likely to occur with result to the lower foreign exchange rate for Q4?
你好,謝謝。感謝羅伯託的工作和資訊。謝謝羅莎娜。我有一個問題。在您給我們的展望中,您提到了明年的預期低迷,預期銷售減少。第四季外匯匯率走低可能會導致什麼結果?
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Hi, Vicente. Well, we can't provide guidance. So I will make some qualitative comments. Q4 is normally a quarter with lower seasonality. So this gives us a marginal and a reduction in market and spreads but also in volume as a result of seasonality. And as for import rates, there's a partial compensation. I don't think it's going to completely offset that seasonal variance. On the other hand, foreign exchange rates do help.
嗨,維森特。好吧,我們無法提供指導。所以我會提出一些定性的評論。第四季通常是季節性較低的季度。因此,這使我們的市場和價差有所減少,但由於季節性原因,交易量也有所減少。至於進口稅率,有部分補償。我認為這不會完全抵消季節性差異。另一方面,外匯匯率確實有幫助。
What we believe here is that approximately $0.01 is approximately $3 million to $4 million of EBITDA, when we look at annual. Today, the exchange rate is dropping again. But if we're talking about $0.20 over the year, that means $60 million to $80 million additional EBITDA. So if you look at a quarterly rate that $0.20 will be worth approximately $15 million to $20 million in EBITDA.
我們認為,當我們考慮年度時,大約 0.01 美元相當於 300 萬至 400 萬美元的 EBITDA。今天,匯率再次下跌。但如果我們談論的是全年 0.20 美元,則意味著 EBITDA 增加 6,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。因此,如果按季度計算,0.20 美元的 EBITDA 價值約為 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。
So I see a positive impact from this issue both in terms of the import rates, market share recovery and also foreign exchange rate, which is measured in some tens of millions of dollars all combined. But there's also a counter force in reducing international spreads and the volume and seasonality. So the net result is that usually Q4 is worse than Q3. All in all, I think this is likely to remain the case.
因此,我認為這個問題對進口率、市場份額恢復以及外匯匯率都產生了積極影響,外匯匯率總計約為數千萬美元。但在減少國際價差以及數量和季節性方面也存在反作用力。所以最終結果是通常 Q4 比 Q3 差。總而言之,我認為這種情況很可能會持續下去。
Now, in terms of cash flow, there is a working capital that we mentioned. We expect that it will recover a little bit or at least remain stable. We do not have interest repayment that we had in our previous quarter. So we've also got an impact there, an impact on cash flow that I would say is materially positive considering those two effects.
現在,就現金流而言,有我們提到的營運資金。我們預計它會有所恢復或至少保持穩定。我們沒有上一季的利息償還。因此,我們也在那裡產生了影響,考慮到這兩種影響,我認為對現金流的影響是實質的正面影響。
And just very quickly, we had a forecast that lots of PP would come in during the new year. Do you see that happening? Is there a lot coming in or are you holding down? I will pass to Rosana Vincente.
很快,我們就預測新年期間將會有大量 PP 進入。你看到這種情況發生了嗎?是有很多人進來還是你在壓抑?我將請羅莎娜·文森特發言。
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Hello, Vicente. Thank you for the question. Just to give you now to look of the fourth quarter and this is what is expected to happen. There is the seasonality of the period to consider. But if we observe the third quarter, it was a quarter from the global viewpoint with scheduled and unscheduled maintenance stoppages.
你好,維森特。謝謝你的提問。現在讓您看看第四季度,這就是預期會發生的情況。需要考慮該時期的季節性。但如果我們觀察第三季度,從全球角度來看,這是一個有計劃內和計劃外維護停機的季度。
At the regional level, we see concentrations of planned maintenance stoppage as we saw in the third quarter. But what we see for the fourth quarter is a way back to scheduled and unscheduled stoppages. A lower demand that already puts pressure on spreads. And when you talk about polypropylene, we saw a propylene coming into the business along the year.
在區域層面,我們看到了計劃內維護停工的集中情況,正如我們在第三季度看到的那樣。但我們在第四季看到的是恢復計畫內和計畫外停工。需求下降已經給利差帶來了壓力。當你談論聚丙烯時,我們看到丙烯全年進入該行業。
If I compare the deficit and the increase of demand, we can see there is a higher offer than the demand that we had in 2025, but much lower than what we reported in the previous year.
如果我比較赤字和需求成長,我們可以看到報價高於 2025 年的需求,但遠低於我們上一年報告的水平。
And that shows this spread positive trajectory that you have been monitoring very closely. So polypropylene is going to come coming in. I see a change in the polyethylene because polyethylene, we have observed a deficit in terms of growth demand because demand was higher than offer.
這表明您一直在密切關注這種積極的傳播軌跡。所以聚丙烯將會進來。我看到聚乙烯發生了變化,因為聚乙烯我們觀察到需求成長出現赤字,因為需求高於報價。
So we see two plants in Asia that are going to start up during the year. So we have seen that this startup has delayed. So in our assumptions, we consider that they are going to come into the production and into the results up to the end of the year and this is likely to lead to a better spread until the end of the year.
因此,我們預計亞洲的兩家工廠將於年內啟動。所以我們看到這個啟動已經延遲了。因此,在我們的假設中,我們認為它們將在年底之前投入生產並產生結果,這可能會導致年底之前的更好傳播。
Vicente Falanga - Analyst
Vicente Falanga - Analyst
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos, UBS.
謝謝。卡洛斯·塔索·瓦斯康塞洛斯,瑞銀集團。
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Hi folks. Good morning. Thanks for the question. And Roberto, thanks for the message. Bischoff, I'd like to ask a follow up. What would you say have been the biggest challenges over your time at Braskem and especially during these past two years as CEO.
大家好。早安.謝謝你的提問。羅伯托,謝謝你的留言。Bischoff,我想問後續狀況。您認為您在 Braskem 期間,特別是在擔任執行長的這兩年裡,最大的挑戰是什麼?
What do you maybe wish you had done but couldn't? And what would you say were the primary challenges that the next CEO is going to have. Next, after the import fees here in Brazil. Do you see any room or any space to talk about the rake for the next few years?
有哪些事情是你希望自己做了卻做不到的?您認為下一任執行長將面臨的主要挑戰是什麼?接下來是巴西的進口費用。您認為未來幾年有任何空間或空間可以談論耙子嗎?
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Hi, Tasso. Thanks for the questions. The major challenge of these two years was without a doubt, facing a downward cycle of this magnitude, preparing the company to continue to generate results without neglecting strategies in the company's long term strategy linked to renewables and the circular economy.
嗨,塔索。感謝您的提問。毫無疑問,這兩年的主要挑戰是面對如此規模的下行週期,讓公司做好準備繼續創造業績,同時不忽視公司與再生能源和循環經濟相關的長期策略。
So it is a very delicate balance specifically linked to operating conditions in a downward cycle that is different from the past several years. So that was a significant challenge. There's also another significant challenge which was bringing the chemical industry agenda to the national agenda.
因此,這是一種非常微妙的平衡,特別與與過去幾年不同的下行週期中的經營狀況有關。所以這是一個重大挑戰。還有另一個重大挑戰是將化學工業議程納入國家議程。
It's an important industry with a distinguished impact in the Brazilian economy. It generates employment, it plays a significant role in Brazil's industrial GDP. So bringing that importance to the awareness of the government, the administration to at this time, create conditions to somehow defend this sector.
這是一個對巴西經濟有顯著影響的重要產業。它創造了就業機會,在巴西工業GDP中發揮重要作用。因此,讓政府意識到這一點的重要性,政府此時要創造條件,以某種方式捍衛這個產業。
And also to think in the long term about industrial policies in a way that is able to reposition this industry, the sector to where it really should occupy, so that it can continue to generate long term sustainable results.
也要從長遠角度思考產業政策,以便能夠將這個產業、這個部門重新定位到它真正應該佔據的位置,以便它能夠繼續產生長期可持續的成果。
With regard to the possibility of any change to the REIQ, I became has been working and so has Braskem toward the need to create industrial policies and conditions to re allow the industry to reposition itself.
關於 REIQ 發生任何變化的可能性,我一直在努力,Braskem 也一直致力於制定產業政策和條件,以重新允許該行業重新定位。
We believe that there is a mechanism that already exists and has already been approved and that is the rake, the REIQ and we are working with the government to raise awareness among the government among the members of government.
我們相信,有一個已經存在並已獲得批准的機制,那就是佣金、REIQ,我們正在與政府合作,以提高政府成員中的政府意識。
So that this incentive, the rake incentive can be in some way expanded to be of more benefit to the sector and reach that repositioning that I mentioned. Now as for future challenges, certainly remaining within the cycle of adaptation and balancing the doing the fine balancing of these different levers and allowing Braskem to really leverage its power.
因此,這種激勵措施、佣金激勵措施可以以某種方式擴大,從而為該行業帶來更多利益,並實現我所提到的重新定位。至於未來的挑戰,當然要保持在適應和平衡的循環中,對這些不同的槓桿進行精細的平衡,並讓 Braskem 真正發揮其力量。
We've got a significant highlight around the world in terms of renewables. So finding the right balance between cash and capital and investments, not just in terms of operations, but also in strategy for the future.
在再生能源方面,我們在世界各地都有一個顯著的亮點。因此,在現金、資本和投資之間找到適當的平衡,不僅在營運方面,而且在未來的策略方面。
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Thank you Bischoff. I wish you all the best. Thank you.
謝謝比紹夫。祝你一切順利。謝謝。
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Now, Tasso, with regard to actions after the import taxes, the import taxes are an important measure and we are thankful for the government and the Ministry of Development Industry and Commerce Vice President Alkin, who worked extensively in this front, but it is a temporary measure. So we remain through a (inaudible) involved in dialogue.
現在,塔索,關於進口稅之後的行動,進口稅是一項重要措施,我們感謝政府和發展工業和商務部副總統阿爾金在這方面所做的廣泛工作,但它是一個重要的措施。臨時措施。因此,我們仍然透過(聽不清楚)參與對話。
And that includes looking at a more structural discussion in touching on the Brazilian industries and we see many countries incentivizing their companies including in the chemical industry to see this in Germany across Asia, in Japan, in the US. We've got the IRA which includes the chemical industry.
這包括對巴西工業進行更具結構性的討論,我們看到許多國家都在激勵本國公司(包括化學工業)在德國、亞洲、日本和美國看到這一點。我們有愛爾蘭共和軍,其中包括化學工業。
So we have many different countries around the world that are offering this type of incentives. And here in Brazil, we have been involved in discussions with the government. Actually, Aviki has been developing a plan. It is now starting to be discussed with the government in the line of offering incentives, tax credits for companies in the chemical sector that are involved with energy transition, innovation, technology.
因此,世界上許多不同的國家都提供此類激勵措施。在巴西,我們參與了與政府的討論。事實上,Aviki一直在製定一個計劃。現在開始與政府討論為涉及能源轉型、創新和技術的化學工業公司提供激勵措施和稅收抵免。
And in our case, we look at also look at the conversion to renewable chemistry, of course, a program such as this takes a while to be implemented.
在我們的案例中,我們也關注向可再生化學的轉變,當然,這樣的計劃需要一段時間才能實施。
So in the shorter term, we want to recover the rake when the rake was created, the credit presumed credit was 8.25% of the cost of inputs. Today, this credit is at 0.73%. So we have been requesting the rake credit to be resumed at the same downward cycle it was -- sorry at the same level it was during the last downward cycle in approximately 2014.
因此,在短期內,我們希望在創建抽成時收回抽成,信用假定信用為投入成本的 8.25%。如今,該信用率為 0.73%。因此,我們一直要求在相同的下行週期中恢復抽傭信用——抱歉,與 2014 年左右的上一次下行週期的水平相同。
So we want ultimately to bring renewed investment to competitivity for us. A significant one could be investing in the Rio de Janeiro center to maybe expand or even double our capacity at the center in Rio. It's a gas based center, it's very competitive. That would be an important step for us to take. So that would be an important incentive for us, an important investment.
因此,我們最終希望為我們的競爭力帶來新的投資。其中一項重要舉措可能是對裡約熱內盧中心進行投資,以擴大甚至翻倍我們在裡約中心的容量。這是一個以天然氣為基礎的中心,競爭非常激烈。這將是我們採取的重要一步。所以這對我們來說是一個重要的激勵,一項重要的投資。
There's also another agenda also ongoing which is gas as input, not just overall because it is important for the whole sector, but for us, it's especially important for -- are that are gas based centers. We have that in Rio in Bahia as well. They can also consume ethane as Rio can.
還有另一個議程正在進行中,即天然氣作為投入,不僅是整體而言,因為它對整個行業都很重要,而且對我們來說,尤其重要的是——那些以天然氣為基礎的中心。我們在巴伊亞州的里約熱內盧也有這樣的計畫。他們也可以像力拓一樣消耗乙烷。
So this regulation of natural gas, we work with the A&P. We work with petrobras as well to increase the availability of gas and to allow ethane to be extracted from that gas. That's also part of the agenda I mentioned. So we've got a structural program that includes recovering, resuming rake at its previously high level.
因此,對於天然氣的監管,我們與 A&P 合作。我們也與巴西石油公司合作,增加天然氣的可用性,並從天然氣中提取乙烷。這也是我提到的議程的一部分。因此,我們制定了一個結構性計劃,其中包括將耙子恢復到先前的高水準。
Then there's the raw input agenda, a thing and a tool that exists around the world in many countries which is anti-dumping. We've got anti-dumping against PVC coming from the US. And in partnership with Unipar, we asked them to review the level of the remedies, the anti-dumping rate remedies that is applied because it is currently insufficient in the face of the scope of the dumping that has been occurring. And we continue to monitor other products as well to potentially request that they be added to anti-dumping measures as well.
然後是原始投入議程,這是世界各地許多國家都存在的反傾銷的東西和工具。我們對來自美國的聚氯乙烯發起反傾銷。我們與 Unipar 合作,要求他們審查補救措施的水平,以及所採用的反傾銷率補救措施,因為目前面對已經發生的傾銷範圍,這些措施還不夠。我們也將繼續監控其他產品,並可能要求將它們納入反傾銷措施。
So we've got those discussions with the government, a more perennial permanent program as well as gas and ethane, which is also going to last in the long term and anti-dumping if we successfully obtain any measures, those run for five years each. So that is also going to defend our industry's competitiveness.
因此,我們與政府進行了討論,一個更長期的永久計劃以及天然氣和乙烷,這也將長期持續,如果我們成功獲得任何措施,這些措施將持續五年,反傾銷。因此,這也將捍衛我們產業的競爭力。
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Carlos Tasso Vasconcellos - Analyst
Amazing. Thank you, Pedro. Thanks for the detail.
驚人的。謝謝你,佩德羅。謝謝你的詳細資料。
Operator
Operator
Gabriel Barra, Citi.
加布里埃爾·巴拉,花旗銀行。
Gabriel Barra - Analyst
Gabriel Barra - Analyst
Hi folks. Thanks for taking my questions, Pedro, Roberto, Rosana. I've got two points to mention. The first looking at a more global scope. This week, we had the results of the US elections. We've got some stress with regard to the Brazilian exchange rate that is depreciating the real compared to the dollar.
大家好。感謝佩德羅、羅伯托、羅莎娜回答我的問題。我有兩點要提。第一個著眼於更全球化的範圍。本週,我們公佈了美國大選結果。我們對巴西匯率感到一些壓力,巴西雷亞爾相對於美元正在貶值。
There's also discussions on the topic of tariffs potentially being increased in the US, what I'd like to understand and I'd like to ask Pedro and Rosana to give some opinions. How does this impact the scenario moving forward?
還有關於美國可能加徵關稅的話題,我想了解一下,請佩德羅和羅莎娜給一些意見。這對未來的情況有何影響?
And in this scenario as well, how does Braskem position change if at all? I think there are some mixed feelings, but I'd like to understand from you looking forward, how may this impact the company? And also my second question back to the topic of rake.
同樣在這種情況下,布拉斯科姆的立場如果改變的話會如何改變?我想大家的心情有些複雜,但我想從您的角度了解一下,這會對公司產生什麼影響?我的第二個問題也回到了耙子的主題。
During the last conference call, there were some interviews showing about potentially rationalizing the capacity here in Brazil depending on how that discussion with regard to import taxes would proceed. So, is that discussion still on the docket? Do we still have any kind of outlook in that sense for Braskem? Now looking at the current scenario that may perhaps have more -- be more protectionist, looking at a global market share as well. What do you see looking forward? Thank you.
在上次電話會議期間,一些訪談顯示,巴西的產能可能會合理化,具體取決於進口稅的討論將如何進行。那麼,這個討論還在討論中嗎?我們仍然對 Braskem 有這樣的展望嗎?現在看看目前的情況,可能會有更多的保護主義,以及全球市場份額。您對未來有何看法?謝謝。
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Hi Gabriel. Thanks for your questions. Truthfully, we don't yet have a fully comprehensive understanding of the US elections. It really depends on what the administration implements. We know that campaigning is one thing and administration is another. But as far as protectionism goes in the US, we see on the one hand, very interesting potential for our US based operations, the polypropylene we produce there is important for an a segment that represents a significant share of their business, which is the automotive industry in the US.
嗨加布里埃爾。感謝您的提問。說實話,我們對美國大選還沒有完全全面的了解。這實際上取決於政府實施什麼。我們知道,競選是一回事,行政是另一回事。但就美國的保護主義而言,一方面,我們看到我們在美國的業務具有非常有趣的潛力,我們在那裡生產的聚丙烯對於佔其業務很大一部分的細分市場非常重要,即汽車美國的工業。
So if the US government implements barriers against importing vehicles from other countries such as China and that has an impact on increasing the US auto industry. Then this may have a significant improvement to our dealings there. This is a result that can potentially happen in the shorter term, if those tariffs are actually placed. So we see a potential positive impact coming from a potential protectionist policy.
因此,如果美國政府對從中國等其他國家進口汽車實施壁壘,這將對美國汽車工業的發展產生影響。那麼這可能會對我們在那裡的交易產生重大改善。如果實際徵收這些關稅,這種結果可能在短期內發生。因此,我們看到潛在的保護主義政策可能產生潛在的正面影響。
Another aspect to this has to do with how Brazil protects itself and organize itself in such a scenario. Because what happens is that if the US closes itself off some more than the other countries that export to the US, especially China will seek other markets. And so we may see increased aggressiveness for toward the Brazilian market, not necessarily in our sector because the logistics are difficult.
另一方面與巴西在這種情況下如何保護自己和組織自己有關。因為發生的情況是,如果美國比其他向美國出口的國家封鎖更多,特別是中國將尋求其他市場。因此,我們可能會看到對巴西市場的積極性增加,但不一定是在我們的行業,因為物流很困難。
The -- it's very China is very far from Brazil, but this may have an indirect effect in finished product. And so this, I wouldn't say the structure but it may weaken, partly it may have a -- and it may have a measurable negative impact, but it's like you said, mixed feelings. So it reinforces the need for the Brazilian government to adopt defense of competitiveness measures to protect the Brazilian economy.
中國距離巴西很遠,但這可能會對成品產生間接影響。所以,我不會說這個結構,但它可能會削弱,部分可能會產生——而且可能會產生可衡量的負面影響,但就像你說的,心情複雜。因此,這強化了巴西政府採取捍衛競爭力措施來保護巴西經濟的必要性。
So this links with your second question, right, which was regarding the reduction in capacity and what kinds of effects this could have in Brazil. We continue to study the rationalization of capacity that was mentioned previously, we don't have a decision at the moment.
因此,這與你的第二個問題有關,對吧,這是關於產能的減少以及這可能對巴西產生什麼樣的影響。我們還在繼續研究之前提到的產能合理化,目前還沒有決定。
This is strongly linked with what the government may place in terms of measures in that agenda, depending on what the government implements, we may need to protect our capacity or depending on what the government does, we may not have a lack of competitiveness scenario. So this could or could not lead to the partial closure of some of our capacity, obviously, not all of it, of course.
這與政府在該議程中可能採取的措施密切相關,根據政府實施的措施,我們可能需要保護我們的能力,或根據政府的做法,我們可能不會缺乏競爭力。因此,這可能會或不會導致我們部分產能的部分關閉,顯然,當然不是全部。
So we are working with many different scenarios. We have a huge analysis chain that we are currently studying in order to have a consolidated vision to make decisions. I do not think we will have any decisions before the end of the year. This is certainly a decision that will be made next year.
因此,我們正在處理許多不同的場景。我們目前正在研究一個巨大的分析鏈,以便有一個統一的願景來做出決策。我認為我們在年底之前不會做出任何決定。這肯定是明年做出的決定。
So, I think that's the key. There are two other points I would have mentioned to give a little bit more context. One you asked about the 4x, of course, a depreciated 4x is better for us. You said maybe $0.15 to $0.20 depreciation. For us $0.01 is approximately $3 million to $4 million in value looking at a yearly average. So you see that this could have a positive impact to our bit though, which is certainly something that is relevant.
所以,我認為這是關鍵。我還想提到另外兩點來提供更多背景資訊。你問的是 4x,當然,折舊的 4x 對我們來說更好。您說可能會折舊 0.15 美元到 0.20 美元。以年平均計算,0.01 美元的價值約為 300 萬至 400 萬美元。所以你會發現這可能會對我們產生正面的影響,這肯定是相關的。
And another important point, something that I think is interesting as well is we have a project to produce green polypropylene in the US. And if the US turns its [gaze] inward, they could potentially accelerate this investment project. And this would bring a new product to the world.
另一個重要的一點,我認為也很有趣的是,我們有一個在美國生產綠色聚丙烯的計畫。如果美國將[目光]轉向國內,他們可能會加速這項投資項目。這將為世界帶來一種新產品。
Gabriel Barra - Analyst
Gabriel Barra - Analyst
That's very interesting, Pedro. Thank you.
這很有趣,佩德羅。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Pedro Soares, BTG Pactual.
佩德羅·蘇亞雷斯,BTG Pactual。
Pedro Soares - Analyst
Pedro Soares - Analyst
Good afternoon, Pedro, Roberto, Rosana. I have a follow up. I'd like to ask about the topic of spreads. I think it was discussed extensively, especially in the very short term for Q4.
下午好,佩德羅、羅伯托、羅莎娜。我有後續行動。我想問一下關於點差的話題。我認為這個問題得到了廣泛的討論,尤其是在第四季的短期內。
But it seems to me so far that you are being conservatively optimistic for the next year. So I'd like to ask you in a bit more detail. How can we translate that to a EBITDA? I understand that you do not announce guidance. But could you discuss some effects for Q4 and perhaps analyze the results of Q3, which is I think $1.6 million or $1.7 million which perhaps seems a little bit optimistic or maybe not. I don't know. And lastly, could you comment about the potential to sell the company?
但到目前為止,在我看來,您對明年持保守樂觀態度。所以我想更詳細地問你。我們如何將其轉化為 EBITDA?我知道你沒有宣布指導。但您能否討論一下第四季度的一些影響,也許分析一下第三季度的結果,我認為是 160 萬美元或 170 萬美元,這可能看起來有點樂觀,也可能不樂觀。我不知道。最後,您能否評論一下出售該公司的可能性?
And I know that this is not really within your purview, it's up to the controller, but is there anything you could share in terms of the new due diligence that is taking place? Does this topic seem to have in some way stagnated at least in your perspective?
我知道這並不真正屬於您的職權範圍,而是由控制者決定,但是就正在進行的新盡職調查而言,您有什麼可以分享的嗎?至少在您看來,這個話題似乎在某種程度上停滯不前了嗎?
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Rosana Avolio - Director of Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Market Intelligence
Thank you, Pedro. I'm going to answer your questions about spreads. Your question was excellent. I talked a little bit about the fourth quarter, but when we see the results, we also start talking about the next year. As you can observe in the presentation, we go back to the trajectory of growing spreads and what's behind those upward spreads.
謝謝你,佩德羅。我將回答您有關點差的問題。你的問題非常好。我談了一些第四季的情況,但當我們看到結果時,我們也開始談論明年。正如您在演示中所觀察到的那樣,我們回到利差增長的軌跡以及這些利差上升背後的原因。
It's a world that continues to grow. We see that global demand has increasing, GDP global of about 2.8% a year. This has an important correlation of the company with a global GDP. This is one variable and on the offer on the supply side, this has to do with uncertainties. Not when we talk about the new capacities. When we see what are the capacity expected for the future, we consider China both for polyethylene and polypropylene. But when we compare to 2022 and 2023, this is a lower supply to offer. So this justifies this growing demand.
這是一個持續成長的世界。我們看到全球需求不斷增加,全球GDP每年成長約2.8%。這與該公司與全球GDP有著重要的關聯性。這是一個變量,在供應方面的報價上,這與不確定性有關。當我們談論新能力時就不是這樣了。當我們看到未來的預期產能時,我們會考慮中國的聚乙烯和聚丙烯。但與 2022 年和 2023 年相比,供應量較低。因此,這證明了這種不斷增長的需求是合理的。
So we see that there is a resumption of all this. So it's a very important variation that it's going to define the pace. Since last year, we have been observing announcements from global companies which are headquartered in Asia, except China and also other companies announcing that they are going to close capacities. But when we consider our estimates and also what is provided by consulting firms, we see there's an increase -- a decrease of 500.
所以我們看到這一切又重新開始了。所以這是一個非常重要的變化,它將定義節奏。自去年以來,我們一直在觀察總部位於亞洲的跨國公司發布的公告,除了中國之外,還有其他公司宣布將關閉產能。但當我們考慮我們的估計以及諮詢公司提供的資訊時,我們發現增加,減少了 500。
But from the economic viewpoint, we believe that more capacities are going to be closed and there is a date when you consider the financial crisis.
但從經濟角度來看,我們相信更多產能將關閉,總有一天會出現金融危機。
So we're talking about supply and demand and GDP, we saw that 7% closed after the financial crisis, but they closing a plant is a very important decision because it demands resources in order to make this closure. So when we look at the global situation with some improvements, when we see that inflation indicators with a downward trend, maybe we see have a more positive outlook when we see this acceleration and how can this be transformed into EBITDA which was the question that you asked us if we consider the spread level that we considered for next year, we may increase by 5% or 10% depending on Braskem.
所以我們談論的是供需和GDP,我們看到7%的工廠在金融危機後關閉,但他們關閉一家工廠是一個非常重要的決定,因為它需要資源才能關閉。因此,當我們看到全球情勢有所改善時,當我們看到通膨指標呈下降趨勢時,當我們看到這種加速時,也許我們會看到更積極的前景,以及如何將其轉化為EBITDA ,這是您提出的問題當我們詢問我們是否考慮明年的價差水準時,我們可能會增加 5% 或 10%,具體取決於 Braskem。
And if I consider the market consensus of 1.3 billion, this is a consensus that is, has been published even on our side. And if I add the 10% considering that everything is constant, we would breach [$1 billion and $1.5 billion]. And as you said, the company does not provide a guidance. So I'm considering the spreads and we, this is what we do here, there's EBITDA and spreads.
如果我考慮到13億的市場共識,這就是我們這邊已經發表的共識。如果考慮到一切都是恆定的,我加上 10%,我們就會違反[10億美元和15億美元]。正如你所說,該公司沒有提供指導。所以我正在考慮利差,這就是我們在這裡所做的,有 EBITDA 和利差。
And if we consider the spreads, we would expect a growth of about 10%. And I'm going to add of what we do well, which is our management and what we control. I mentioned spreads, but it's important to mention all the initiatives of reduction of variable costs.
如果我們考慮利差,我們預計成長約為 10%。我還要補充我們做得好的方面,即我們的管理和我們的控制。我提到了價差,但重要的是要提及所有降低變動成本的措施。
In the past two years alone, we have this initiative and the challenge is that next year, we are going to have a lower cost than this year. So in the past two years, we have already captured more than $200 million in reduction. So it's very close to the number that you mentioned. I'm going to pass the floor to Pedro.
光是在過去的兩年裡,我們就有了這項舉措,挑戰是明年我們的成本將低於今年。所以在過去的兩年裡,我們已經減少了超過2億美元的資金。所以這個數字非常接近你提到的數字。我將把發言權交給佩德羅。
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Sure. With regard to the due diligence, we have two ongoing exchanges of informations. One is PIC, a Kuwaiti company that we actually announced about. It is currently moving a little bit more slowly. Every bit of information they ask for we have provided. Sometimes they do ask us more isolated questions here and there.
當然。關於盡職調查,我們正在進行兩次資訊交換。其中之一是 PIC,這是我們實際宣布的科威特公司。目前它的移動速度有點慢。他們要求的每一點資訊我們都提供了。有時他們確實會不時地問我們一些更孤立的問題。
And petrobras also sometimes request additional information or some kind of context. Petrobras completed their assessment in the end of last year. So currently, it's really more focused on updating information with regard to what happened in these three quarters of the year.
巴西國家石油公司有時也會要求提供額外資訊或某種背景資訊。巴西國家石油公司於去年年底完成了評估。因此,目前,它實際上更專注於更新有關今年這三個季度發生的情況的資訊。
So that's what's happening, we do not currently have any additional information with regard to negotiations, what is or is not happening. We don't know what's happening when it comes to negotiations, but with regard to the due diligence, that's what we have.
這就是正在發生的事情,我們目前沒有關於談判、正在發生或沒有發生的事情的任何額外資訊。我們不知道談判時發生了什麼,但就盡職調查而言,這就是我們所擁有的。
Pedro Soares - Analyst
Pedro Soares - Analyst
All right. Thank you, Pedro and Rosana.
好的。謝謝你們,佩德羅和羅莎娜。
Operator
Operator
Leonardo Marcondes, Bank of America.
萊昂納多·馬孔德斯,美國銀行。
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Hi, good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have two questions. The first is about CapEx. You're currently working at a yearly basis around turn of $40 million, which is a little bit lower if we look at your history. Where do you see the perfect maintenance CapEx are those 450 something that you could work at with your current operations with that kind of CapEx.
嗨,大家下午好。感謝您提出我的問題。我有兩個問題。第一個是關於資本支出。目前,您每年的工作收入約為 4000 萬美元,如果我們查看您的歷史記錄,這個數字會稍微更低。您在哪裡看到完美的維護資本支出是您可以使用這種資本支出在當前營運中處理的 450 項內容。
So in real terms, would that be a potential perfect maintenance CapEx or should we expect that number to increase looking forward?
那麼,從實際角度來看,這是否是潛在的完美維護資本支出,或者我們應該預期該數字未來會增加?
My next question is a follow up for Pedro's question. In that scenario with a stronger EBITDA for next year. How do you see cash generation at the company? Are you trying to keep things a little bit more constant CapEx? The Alagoas statements working capital, it's difficult to keep it constant in a scenario where spreads are likely to improve. So I'd like to understand how you see cash flow for next year?
我的下一個問題是佩德羅問題的後續。在這種情況下,明年的 EBITDA 將會更加強勁。您如何看待公司的現金產生?您是否想保持資本支出更穩定?阿拉戈斯聲明營運資金,在利差可能改善的情況下很難保持穩定。所以我想了解一下您對明年的現金流有何看法?
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Sure, good afternoon, Leonardo. With regard to CapEx, I would say that the company's maintenance CapEx level is historically between $500 million and $600 million and that does include scheduled downtime and other similar slowdowns and downtime.
當然,下午好,萊昂納多。關於資本支出,我想說的是,該公司的維護資本支出水準歷來在 5 億至 6 億美元之間,其中確實包括計劃停機時間和其他類似的減速和停機時間。
So what we have been doing to keep our CapEx stable is we have been very selective about our assets and there are certain plants that do not need to be 100% available since our demand is a little bit lower. We are operating at less than 70% -- 75% approximately at the 75% level. What the end result is that we do not need all assets fully operational all the time.
因此,為了保持資本支出穩定,我們一直在努力選擇我們的資產,某些工廠不需要 100% 可用,因為我們的需求稍微低一些。我們的營運率低於 70%——大約 75% 的水平。最終的結果是我們不需要所有資產來始終處於完全運作狀態。
Now, this does not include anything that pertains to safety. Safety is always pull. But when it does not come to safety, we do reduce some operating uptimes at certain points when demand is not so high, this is all based on our schedule which is created.
現在,這不包括任何與安全相關的內容。安全永遠是拉動的。但是,當涉及安全問題時,當需求不是那麼高時,我們確實會在某些點減少一些運行正常運行時間,這一切都是基於我們制定的時間表。
And of course, if something breaks, we rush in and change it, but we have not been performing preventive maintenance in anticipation of the occurrence of issues in assets that have been deprioritized. We have a full scale between critical important, less important and marginal assets. So what I mentioned previously is applicable to the marginal assets. So that's one of the strategies we've been implementing for CapEx.
當然,如果出現問題,我們會衝進去進行更改,但我們並沒有針對已被取消優先順序的資產出現問題而進行預防性維護。我們對關鍵資產、次重要資產和邊際資產進行了全面評估。所以我前面提到的也適用於邊際資產。這是我們一直在實施的資本支出策略之一。
That's approximately $500 million to $600 million, it really depends on the downtime cycle. With regard to cash generation for next year. We're working on our budget right now. So I don't have a finished number for you. You can expect cash -- working cash to be consumed as a result of spreads and volume.
這大約是 5 億到 6 億美元,這實際上取決於停機週期。關於明年的現金產生。我們現在正在製定預算。所以我沒有給你一個完整的數字。您可以預期現金——流動現金將因價差和交易量而被消耗。
On the other hand, we see that Alagoas' has a little bit lower -- a little bit less cash consumption requirements for next year. So that's one thing and we're working with all teams to keep Braskem at a neutral cash level for next year, such that we can absorb the company's obligations with regard to the EBITDA that has -- that will have been generated.
另一方面,我們看到阿拉戈斯明年的現金消耗要求略低一些。所以這是一回事,我們正在與所有團隊合作,使 Braskem 明年保持在中性現金水平,這樣我們就可以承擔公司對已經產生的 EBITDA 的義務。
So that involves contracts, fixed cost. So for the next year, the challenge was placed for the teams is a 3% to 4% reduction compared to this year's fixed cost, which is already a reduction compared to last year's. So we've been keeping those costs at a stable reduction rate even considering inflation. Contract disputes have also led to lower costs, that's contract disputes is a field where we had an improvement.
這涉及合約和固定成本。因此,明年,團隊面臨的挑戰是與今年的固定成本相比減少 3% 到 4%,這已經比去年減少了。因此,即使考慮到通貨膨脹,我們也一直將這些成本保持在穩定的降低率。合約糾紛也帶來了成本的降低,這就是合約糾紛是我們有進步的一個領域。
For instance, There's a 1.3 million contract where we moved in and we were able to reduce it by almost 50%. We changed the scope, we changed the way we do business and we were able to achieve a nearly 50% reduction in that specific topic.
例如,我們搬入了一份 130 萬美元的合同,我們能夠將其減少近 50%。我們改變了範圍,改變了開展業務的方式,並且我們能夠在該特定主題上實現近 50% 的縮減。
So there are hundreds of different contract reviews such as this one rereview operating conditions as well. And all of that together has led to lower costs. Also in the topic of inputs and optimizing inputs. So I expect for next year, we'll have neutral cash generation except for Alagoas, which still continues to consume cash in addition to beyond its operations. But that is a scenario we are seeking for next year.
因此,存在數百種不同的合約審查,例如此審查操作條件。所有這些共同導致了成本的降低。也在輸入和優化輸入的主題中。因此,我預計明年,除了阿拉戈斯之外,我們將實現中性現金生成,該公司除了營運之外仍繼續消耗現金。但這是我們明年尋求的場景。
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
All right. That was very clear, Pedro. Thank you. Just one more follow up to get a better read. I understand that you're preparing your budget for next year, but within the [BRL1.5 billion] EBITDA, which you did already comment on. What kind of exchange rate are you considering?
好的。這很清楚,佩德羅。謝謝。只需再跟進一次即可更好地閱讀。據我所知,您正在準備明年的預算,但要在 [15 億巴西雷亞爾] EBITDA 範圍內,您已經對此發表了評論。您正在考慮什麼樣的匯率?
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
The exchange rate we currently consider in our current version is BRL5.47 per USD. That's a mean exchange rate.
我們目前版本中考慮的匯率是 5.47 雷亞爾兌 1 美元。這是平均匯率。
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Leonardo Marcondes - Analyst
Yes, I understand. Perfect. Thank you.
是的,我明白。完美的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thiago Casqueiro, Morgan Stanley.
蒂亞戈·卡斯奎羅,摩根士丹利。
Thiago Casqueiro - Analysts
Thiago Casqueiro - Analysts
Good afternoon folks. Thanks for taking my questions. I think most of them have actually already been addressed. I just have one more question regarding Mexico. I understand that recently there was a scheduled downtime from one of the vendors and one of your plants also.
各位下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我認為其中大多數實際上已經解決。我還有一個關於墨西哥的問題。據我所知,最近其中一家供應商和您的一家工廠也進行了計劃停機。
So that led to a slight reduction in utilization rate which in Q4 is likely to improve. But I'd want to understand, what is your forecast for '25? Are there any potential new stops as well? Thank you.
因此,這導致利用率略有下降,而第四季度可能會有所改善。但我想了解一下,您對 25 年的預測是什麼?還有潛在的新站點嗎?謝謝。
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Hi, Thiago. All right. Mexico. For Q4, we had Milton Hurricane which did not hit our site specifically, but there were some wisps of it that did hit our site. There was a lot of rain and there was a logistics effect. So we're currently operating on fast track that means transporting ethane through by trucks. There was a bridge that was impacted. So we had to reroute or reschedule trucks for a slight bit in October. There was a slight change in our operations there, but it was a very specific effect, it should remain in line.
嗨,蒂亞戈。好的。墨西哥。第四季度,我們遇到了米爾頓颶風,它沒有專門攻擊我們的網站,但有一些小部分確實攻擊了我們的網站。雨量很大,對物流有影響。因此,我們目前正在快速運營,這意味著透過卡車運輸乙烷。有一座橋受到了影響。因此,我們不得不在 10 月稍微改變路線或重新安排卡車。我們在那裡的運作發生了輕微的變化,但這是一個非常具體的影響,它應該保持一致。
That's my expectation. Something in slightly better even perhaps, but certainly aligned with Q3. Now, as for 2025, we've got two things. We've got the scheduled downtime which should last a little over a month. It's usually 30 to 40 days. I don't have the precise schedule for that Mexico downtime specifically. But you may think, okay, you will lose 1/12 of production 8%. You may think.
這是我的期望。甚至可能稍微好一些,但肯定與第三季一致。現在,對於 2025 年,我們有兩件事。我們已經安排了停機時間,應該會持續一個多月。通常是30到40天。我沒有具體的墨西哥停工時間的具體時間表。但您可能會想,好吧,您將損失 1/12 的產量 8%。你可能會想。
So, yes. But on the other hand, we also have the terminal and the potential to operate with full loads. So when the terminal really begins operation at the end of Q1, that means we'll have three quarters at full operation.
所以,是的。但另一方面,我們也擁有碼頭和滿載營運的潛力。因此,當航站樓在第一季末真正開始運作時,這意味著我們將有四分之三的時間全面運作。
During one of them, one month will be down. So net at the year average should be approximately 85%, which is what we've been working at. And then for 2026 then yes, we will be running close to or at 100%. That's our forecast.
其中一期,一個月就會下來。因此,年平均淨值應約為 85%,這正是我們一直在努力的目標。然後到 2026 年,是的,我們將接近或達到 100%。這就是我們的預測。
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Perfect, Pedro. Thank you. That was very clear. Rosana has reminded me here that there's an important point to be mentioned. We have two ethane ships, high capacity ones that are being built in China. The first is already in the water. It is currently being tested, it's performing seaworthiness tests and we should receive that finished ship in January.
完美,佩德羅。謝謝。這非常清楚。羅莎娜在這裡提醒我,有一個重要的要點要提及。我們有兩艘乙烷船,都是在中國建造的高容量船。第一個已經在水裡了。它目前正在接受測試,並且正在進行適航性測試,我們應該會在一月份收到這艘成品船。
It's scheduled for delivery for us in January. And so with that, we will also increase the scale and volume of transported products that has a significant reduction in logistics costs. So not just an increase in volume. Also, we will see a reduction in costs in ethane imports. All right and thank you Rosana.
計劃於一月向我們交付。這樣一來,我們也會增加運輸產品的規模和數量,進而大幅降低物流成本。所以不只是數量的增加。此外,我們還將看到乙烷進口成本下降。好的,謝謝羅莎娜。
Operator
Operator
Regis Cardoso, XP Inc.
雷吉斯·卡多佐,XP Inc.
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
Good afternoon Roberto, Pedro, Rosana. It's already quite late. So I'll ask just one question. I want to understand the cash flow equation thinking about Q4 and '25. If I compare with Q3 '24 Alagoas effectively is still significant in terms of cash generation.
下午好,羅伯托、佩德羅、羅莎娜。已經很晚了。所以我只問一個問題。我想了解第四季和 25 年的現金流方程式。如果我與 24 年第三季相比,阿拉戈斯在現金生成方面仍然具有重要意義。
And I would even add that in spite of the disbursement, we have not yet seen a relevant reduction in the provision balance that we see in the report. So Pedro, could you give us an update about the Alagoas' effect and impact on cash flow and the effects on the provisionment as well?
我什至想補充一點,儘管有支出,但我們尚未看到報告中看到的撥備餘額相應減少。佩德羅,您能為我們介紹一下阿拉戈斯計畫對現金流的影響以及對撥備的影響的最新情況嗎?
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Sure, sure Regis. We've got the provision table here in our report, you can consult that. We currently have a BRL4.8 billion provision plus some accounts payable as well. So all in all, that's approximately BRL5.5 billion in balance that Brazil Braskem still needs to disperse out of that balance. In fact, we do have effects over the course of the year in terms of consumption.
當然,當然雷吉斯。我們的報告中有提供表,您可以查閱。我們目前有 48 億雷亞爾的準備金以及一些應付帳款。總而言之,巴西 Braskem 仍需要從該餘額中分散約 55 億雷亞爾的餘額。事實上,我們在這一年中確實對消費產生了影響。
The cash disbursement for that provision over the year is going to surpass BRL2 billion in a year in this quarter, it was BRL130 million. So over the year, it may come out to BRL3 billion all in all. Conversely, we've also got a situation that is dynamic.
全年該準備金的現金支出將在本季超過 20 億雷亞爾,為 1.3 億雷亞爾。因此,全年總計可能達到 30 億雷亞爾。相反,我們也遇到了動態的情況。
We recently had to bring three cavities into the sand filling group, the backfilling group. So that led to a BRL300 billion increase. So the consumption has been occurring. It part of that has a negative compensation due to adjustments to the provision. Another part of that is inflation, which we do need to account for as well and compensate for. But also developments in the dynamics for that case.
我們最近不得不將三個空腔帶入填砂組,即回填組。因此,這導致了 3000 億雷亞爾的增加。所以消費一直在發生。由於條款的調整,其中一部分有負補償。另一部分是通貨膨脹,我們也確實需要考慮和補償。但也有該案動態的發展。
Looking at some previous numbers, what I can tell you is that if we look since 2020, looking at a back of the envelope average that's BRL2.5 billion in disbursement per year. So that's why out of the total BRL16.5 billion provision, we've got the BRL5.5 billion that I mentioned.
看看之前的一些數字,我可以告訴您的是,如果我們自 2020 年以來,看看每年的平均支出為 25 億雷亞爾。這就是為什麼在 165 億雷亞爾的總撥款中,我們得到了我提到的 55 億雷亞爾。
So the program is moving forward, sometimes we discover new developments and need to make adjustments. But all in all, we have been reducing uncertainties and risks significantly and the value is increasingly more and more assertive, when it comes to our understanding and forecast about what that provision is. But again, this is a dynamic that we do not control and it could be that unfortunately, we may have a new adjustment.
所以程式在前進,有時我們會發現新的進展,需要做出調整。但總而言之,當涉及到我們對該條款的理解和預測時,我們一直在顯著減少不確定性和風險,價值越來越自信。但同樣,這是我們無法控制的動態,不幸的是,我們可能會進行新的調整。
Now as for Q4, the main points that I would highlight are for working cash. We don't forecast working cash consumption again like we did in Q3 because we had increased volume and spreads as I mentioned. Now, for Q4, that is not likely to occur. We may actually in fact restore part of that working capital.
至於第四季度,我要強調的重點是流動現金。我們不會像第三季那樣再次預測工作現金消耗,因為正如我所提到的,我們的交易量和利差有所增加。現在,對於第四季來說,這種情況不太可能發生。我們實際上可能會恢復部分營運資金。
Now for the bond interest payments, we don't have any -- and we don't forecast any change there. And again, for Alagoas should remain on track. I don't see many variations to be likely. I think the main points that suggest for us that we are going to have improvement to working capital are interest rates and paid capital.
現在,對於債券利息支付,我們沒有任何利息,而且我們預計不會有任何變化。再說一次,阿拉戈斯應該保持在正軌上。我認為不可能有太多變化。我認為對我們來說,表明我們將改善營運資本的要點是利率和實收資本。
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
Thanks Pedro. Just a quick follow up. So in 2026, we should see a reduction in the importance of Alagoas' disbursements on the company's bottom line '25 ends?
謝謝佩德羅。只需快速跟進即可。因此,到 2026 年,我們應該會看到 Alagoas 的支出對公司「25 年底」底線的重要性有所下降?
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Pedro van Langendonck Teixeira de Freitas - Chief Financial and Investor Relation Officer, Head - Finance, Supplies and Institutional, Member of the Executive Management
Yes, that is our expectation. We think 2025 is a year where social and a realistic measures are still implemented cavity filling among others. We're currently wrapping up the private compensations. We've signed all contracts already. There should be some residual payments still next year, but no new ones. So considering what we know today, that is our forecast, our view, it's likely or it's significantly reduced next year and should have ended by '26 and should be zero at '27.
是的,這就是我們的期望。我們認為2025年是仍實施填補空缺等社會和現實措施的一年。我們目前正在處理私人賠償事宜。我們已經簽署了所有合約。明年應該還有一些剩餘付款,但沒有新的付款。因此,考慮到我們今天所知道的情況,這就是我們的預測、我們的觀點,明年它很可能會顯著減少,並且應該在 26 年結束,並在 27 年為零。
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
Regis Cardoso - Analyst
All right. Perfect. Thank you.
好的。完美的。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor to Mr. Roberto BIschoff for his final remarks. You may proceed, sir.
今天的問答環節到此結束。現在請羅伯托·比肖夫先生作最後發言。您可以繼續了,先生。
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Roberto Bischoff - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Management
Hello again. First, I'd like to thank all of you for taking part in our earnings call. And even more importantly for the partnership we have built together during my past two years at the head of Braskem. Thank you all.
又好。首先,我要感謝大家參加我們的財報電話會議。更重要的是,我們在過去兩年擔任 Braskem 負責人期間共同建立了合作夥伴關係。謝謝大家。
It has been two years of significant challenge for the industry and for Braskem. We went through a very intense low cycle in the petrochemical industry, very different from other years. And we truly needed to tirelessly seek initiative to overcome the challenges that this cycle have imposed on us.
對於整個產業和 Braskem 來說,這兩年都面臨著重大挑戰。我們經歷了石化產業非常劇烈的低週期,與往年截然不同。我們確實需要不懈地尋求主動行動來克服這個週期帶給我們的挑戰。
In that sense, as we have been mentioning over the course of the call, I'd like to highlight the commercial efforts and efforts to reduce fixed and variable costs that all in all contributed to significant increase in almost $300 million in EBITDA, as well as multiple initiatives to optimize capital of many different types which all in all added up to approximately $400 million since last year, some of these were highly relevant and really tackled the challenges that we have faced.
從這個意義上說,正如我們在電話會議中提到的那樣,我想強調商業努力以及降低固定和可變成本的努力,這些努力總體上也促成了近 3 億美元的 EBITDA 大幅增長自去年以來,優化多種不同類型資本的多項措施總計約4 億美元,其中一些措施高度相關,真正解決了我們面臨的挑戰。
We also had important advancements by the company such as our partnership with SCG chemicals, the potential to build a plant in Thailand. The completion of the expansion of the Green Ethane plant in Brazil, which has been proven, it is actually working past its projected capacity of 260,000 tons and also an 87% increase -- very relevant increase in the construction of the Mexican Ethane import terminal. This is truly going to allow us to be more independent and competitive.
我們公司也取得了重要進展,例如與 SCG 化學品的合作夥伴關係,以及在泰國建廠的潛力。巴西綠色乙烷工廠擴建工程的完成已被證明,其實際產能已超過 26 萬噸的預計產能,並且增長了 87%,這與墨西哥乙烷進口碼頭建設的增長非常相關。這確實會讓我們更加獨立和更具競爭力。
I mean Braskem (inaudible) , of course, in the supply of its inputs as well as an important initiative that we mentioned in opening our new Technology and Innovation Center in Lexington, US. Another important effort and one which has been important and Pedro mentioned at length has been the focus ever since I arrived in defending the Brazilian chemical industry.
當然,我指的是 Braskem(聽不清楚),即提供其投入以及我們在美國列剋星敦開設新技術和創新中心時提到的一項重要舉措。自從我來到巴西捍衛巴西化學工業以來,另一個重要的努力一直是佩德羅詳細提到的重要努力。
I have mentioned before, but I would like to highlight how important the Brazilian chemical industry is for the economy, the Brazilian economy. We create high quality jobs and significant tax revenue for the company -- for the country, sorry.
我之前已經提到過,但我想強調巴西化學工業對於經濟、巴西經濟有多重要。我們為公司(為國家)創造了高品質的就業機會和可觀的稅收收入。
In the current chemical and petrochemical industry, we've seen an increase in external and competition, which requires the country to strengthen its chemical petrochemical and plastics industries. This is an agenda that will remain important, at least over the next year striving to defend the industry.
當前化學石化產業,外部競爭加劇,這要求國家加強化學石化和塑膠產業的發展。這項議程仍然很重要,至少在明年努力捍衛該行業。
That's through Abby Kim and through our actions at Braskem. Now, in the sense of everything I mentioned, I think I leave Braskem strong and prepared to face this upcoming downward cycle. That's my belief.
這是透過 Abby Kim 和我們在 Braskem 的行動實現的。現在,就我提到的一切而言,我認為我讓 Braskem 保持堅強,並準備好面對即將到來的下行週期。這就是我的信念。
Once again, I'd like to thank all of you for the trust you place in me and we will see each other once again on November 25, when we have our Braskem Day. Thank you all very much and have a great end of the quarter.
我要再次感謝大家對我的信任,我們將在 11 月 25 日巴西肯日再次相見。非常感謝大家,祝本季末一切順利。
Operator
Operator
That concludes Braskem's video conference for today. Thank you for your participation and have a good day.
布拉斯科姆今天的視訊會議到此結束。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。
Editor
Editor
Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.
本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。口譯員由贊助本次活動的公司提供。