美國銀行 (BAC) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Bank of America second quarter earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's call is being recorded.

    大家好,歡迎收看美國銀行第二季度收益公告。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的通話正在錄音中。

  • And it is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to Lee McEntire. Please go ahead.

    現在我很高興將會議交給 Lee McEntire。請繼續。

  • E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

    E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Katherine. Good morning. Thank you for joining the call to review our second quarter results. Hopefully, you've had a chance to review our earnings release documents. As usual, they're available, including the earnings presentation that we'll be referring to during the call, on our Investor Relations section of the bankofamerica.com website.

    謝謝你,凱瑟琳。早上好。感謝您加入電話會議以查看我們的第二季度業績。希望您有機會查看我們的收益發布文件。像往常一樣,他們可以在 bankofamerica.com 網站的投資者關係部分獲得,包括我們將在電話會議期間提到的收益演示文稿。

  • I'm going to first turn the call over to our CEO, Brian Moynihan, for some opening comments; and then Paul Donofrio, our CFO, will cover the details of the quarter.

    我將首先將電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Brian Moynihan,以徵求一些開場白;然後我們的首席財務官 Paul Donofrio 將介紹本季度的細節。

  • Before I turn the call over to Brian and Paul, let me just remind you, we may make some forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures during the call regarding various elements of the financial results. Forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions, and they are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to materially differ from expectations are detailed in our earnings materials, our SEC filings on our website. Information about the non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations to U.S. GAAP, can also be found in our earnings materials that are on our website.

    在我將電話轉給布賴恩和保羅之前,讓我提醒您,我們可能會在電話會議期間就財務結果的各種要素做出一些前瞻性陳述並參考非公認會計原則的財務指標。前瞻性陳述基於管理層當前的預期和假設,並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與預期產生重大差異的因素在我們的收益材料和我們網站上的 SEC 文件中有詳細說明。有關非公認會計原則財務措施的信息,包括與美國公認會計原則的對賬,也可以在我們網站上的收益材料中找到。

  • So with that, let me turn it over to you, Brian. It's all yours.

    有了這個,讓我把它交給你,布賴恩。全是你的。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Good morning and thank all of you for joining us, and thank you, Lee.

    早上好,謝謝大家加入我們,謝謝你,李。

  • Today, Bank of America reported $9.2 billion in after-tax net income or $1.03 per diluted share. These results included a few items worth highlighting, and I'm on Page 2 ahead of Paul going through the details. First, as asset quality continue to improve and the economy continue to recover, we released $2.2 billion of credit reserves established in the first half of last year. The idea that a company with our credit quality and other industry participants would be releasing reserves this quarter is not new news, but the reality is at BAC, we're seeing credit quality levels that are very strong. Net charge-offs fell to 25-year low as a percentage of loans, not just raw dollar amount.

    今天,美國銀行公佈了 92 億美元的稅後淨收入或每股攤薄收益 1.03 美元。這些結果包括一些值得強調的項目,我在第 2 頁上領先於 Paul 介紹細節。一是隨著資產質量不斷改善、經濟持續復甦,我們釋放了去年上半年建立的信貸準備金22億美元。擁有我們信用質量的公司和其他行業參與者將在本季度釋放準備金的想法並不是什麼新鮮事,但現實是在 BAC,我們看到信用質量水平非常高。淨沖銷佔貸款的百分比降至 25 年來的最低點,而不僅僅是原始美元金額。

  • Let me mention a few items I don't believe were industry-wide or expected at BAC. We recorded a $2 billion positive income tax adjustment following last month's enactment of an increase in U.K. corporate income tax rate to 25%. This required a remeasurement of our deferred tax asset, which just reversed the write-downs from previous years when the tax rates were lower.

    讓我提幾個我不認為是全行業或 BAC 預期的項目。在上個月頒布將英國企業所得稅稅率提高到 25% 之後,我們記錄了 20 億美元的正所得稅調整。這需要重新計量我們的遞延所得稅資產,這只是扭轉了前幾年稅率較低時的減記。

  • In addition, our expense level included 2 things I would note. These add up to about $800 million. With our strong results and the tax benefit, we took the opportunity to prefund $500 million to our charitable foundation. This accelerates our planned funding for not only the rest of this year, but for the next year as well. This is not new money, just utilizing some of the tax benefit to cover future expense.

    此外,我們的費用水平包括我要注意的兩件事。這些加起來約為 8 億美元。憑藉我們強勁的業績和稅收優惠,我們藉此機會向我們的慈善基金會預注了 5 億美元。這不僅加速了我們今年剩餘時間的計劃資金,而且也加速了明年的資金計劃。這不是新錢,只是利用一些稅收優惠來支付未來的費用。

  • We also recorded roughly $300 million of expense associated with processing transactional card claims related to state unemployment benefits. This represents, to a large degree, a catch-up as we move through claim backlogs.

    我們還記錄了大約 3 億美元與處理與州失業救濟金相關的交易卡索賠相關的費用。這在很大程度上代表了我們處理索賠積壓的追趕。

  • Away from these items, we produced another quarter of solid earnings and showed evidence of good client activity in an economy that continue to recover from the pandemic. Now as we all know, the health care crisis has shown improvement and the economy has recovered. Progress on vaccinations, along with the continued support of fiscal monetary policies, has promoted a full and speedy recovery and return to economic health.

    除了這些項目之外,我們還創造了另一個季度的穩健收益,並顯示了在繼續從大流行中復甦的經濟中客戶活動良好的證據。現在眾所周知,醫療保健危機已經有所改善,經濟已經復蘇。疫苗接種取得進展,加上財政貨幣政策的持續支持,促進了經濟全面快速復蘇和恢復健康。

  • We, like others, are reopening our facilities, and we're seeing more products being sold by our teammates in addition to the continued digital engagement at very high levels. Our advisers and bankers and relationship managers are once again meeting with clients face-to-face, building even the stronger relationships. We are seeing customer demand continue to grow given the opportunities our companies see.

    我們和其他人一樣,正在重新開放我們的設施,除了持續的高水平數字參與外,我們還看到我們的隊友銷售了更多產品。我們的顧問、銀行家和客戶關係經理再次與客戶面對面會面,建立更牢固的關係。鑑於我們公司看到的機會,我們看到客戶需求繼續增長。

  • I want to take a minute or 2 on the economy and -- if you go to Slide 3. We have included a few slides highlighting our customer data. Let me hit a few highlights. The GDP growth estimates by our BofA Securities Research team for the second quarter stand at 10% and stand at 7% for the full year 2021. And the reopenings further driving projections of an economy has continued to grow at a rate above the prepandemic periods into '23. Also, the unemployment rate dropped below 6% this quarter projected by economists to continue to fall. You also note the stability to increase consumer spending from our own BAC customers, which is not only much higher than the same periods in 2020, which you would expect, but is notably 22% higher than the first half of '21 compared to 2019. And you can see that in the lower right of the page. That growth rate in '19 was already growing strongly before the pandemic.

    我想花一兩分鐘討論經濟問題,如果您轉到幻燈片 3。我們提供了幾張幻燈片,重點介紹了我們的客戶數據。讓我打幾個亮點。我們的美國銀行證券研究團隊對第二季度 GDP 增長的估計為 10%,2021 年全年為 7%。重新開放進一步推動對經濟的預測繼續以高於大流行前時期的速度增長。 '23.此外,經濟學家預計本季度失業率將繼續下降至 6% 以下。您還注意到我們自己的 BAC 客戶增加消費者支出的穩定性,這不僅遠高於您預期的 2020 年同期,而且與 2019 年相比明顯高於 21 年上半年的 22%。您可以在頁面的右下方看到它。在大流行之前,19 年的增長率已經強勁增長。

  • A few comments regarding the characteristics of spending I think are interesting. We are halfway through the year, and the total payments through those -- through all the different means are $1.8 trillion. That's 60% of last year's level. Last year, indeed, was a record even though it was suppressed in various periods when businesses were shut down.

    關於支出特徵的一些評論我認為很有趣。今年已經過半了,通過所有不同方式支付的總金額為 1.8 萬億美元。這是去年水平的60%。去年確實是一個記錄,儘管它在企業關閉的各個時期都受到壓制。

  • More specifically, for the second quarter, the total BAC consumer small business payments set a fourth quarterly consecutive record, reaching $976 billion, up 41% year-over-year and 23% over '19. The trend has also continued into early July.

    更具體地說,第二季度,BAC 消費者小企業支付總額連續第四個季度創下紀錄,達到 9760 億美元,同比增長 41%,比 19 年增長 23%。這一趨勢也一直持續到 7 月初。

  • Spending accelerated as COVID vaccinations increase, business reopen and domestic travel increase. Combined spend at retailers and services comprises over 50% of debit and credit card spending, a portion of the total spend. That increased 27% over 2019 second quarter, but did slow a bit towards the end of the quarter as consumers moved their attention and started taking summer leisure trips and activity. You can see that by noting a return of travel and entertainment spending, which comprises about 10% of debit credit card spend. You can see where recovering travel remains below 2000 -- where recovering travel remains below 2019 spending levels.

    隨著 COVID 疫苗接種的增加、企業重新開業和國內旅行的增加,支出加速。零售商和服務的總支出佔借記卡和信用卡支出的 50% 以上,佔總支出的一部分。與 2019 年第二季度相比,這一數字增長了 27%,但隨著消費者轉移注意力並開始進行夏季休閒旅行和活動,到本季度末略有放緩。您可以通過注意旅行和娛樂支出的回報來看到這一點,其中約佔借記信用卡支出的 10%。您可以看到旅遊業復甦仍低於 2000 年——旅遊業復甦仍低於 2019 年支出水平。

  • Splitting this travel, up a bit. As of mid-June, domestic airline purchases were up 8% over 2019 while international airline purchase on our cards are still down approximately 40%, showing the difference of the progress against the war on the virus in United States versus other places.

    把這次旅行分開,有點。截至 6 月中旬,國內航空購買量較 2019 年增長 8%,而國際航空購買量仍下降約 40%,可見美國與其他地方的抗疫進展差異。

  • Now let's go to Slide 4. We just put this chart in to show you that the consumers are paying their bills. We've shown this each quarter so you could see that the actual card delinquency levels continue to edge down even as people are out and circulating the economy.

    現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 4。我們只是將這張圖表顯示給您,向您展示消費者正在支付他們的賬單。我們每個季度都展示了這一點,因此您可以看到,即使人們外出並在經濟中流通,實際的信用卡拖欠水平也會繼續下降。

  • Before we go to Paul, I want to comment specifically on 3 areas of interest to you: loan growth, NII and expense. And we can do that on Pages 5 and 6. So first on loans. Paul and I are going to show you the average loans. Paul will show you that later. End-of-period loans, I'll show you in a minute and long-term trends, which are on Page 5.

    在我們討論 Paul 之前,我想具體評論一下您感興趣的 3 個領域:貸款增長、NII 和費用。我們可以在第 5 頁和第 6 頁上做到這一點。所以首先是貸款。保羅和我將向你展示平均貸款。保羅稍後會告訴你。期末貸款,我會在一分鐘內向您展示長期趨勢,在第 5 頁。

  • What all these figures point to is accelerating growth during the quarter, as we've spoken about on occasion. This quarter, we saw loan levels across most every business move past stabilization begin to make progress. Companies need to build inventory, hire workers to meet the growing customer demand. This virtuous circle of hiring workers and meeting customer spending will help drive the economy and hopefully will result in more line usage on all levels. You can see the path on Slide 5 of loans since the pandemic started in March 2020. As you can see, all of them are turning up in recent months.

    正如我們有時所說的那樣,所有這些數據都表明本季度的增長正在加速。本季度,我們看到大多數企業的貸款水平在穩定之後開始取得進展。公司需要建立庫存,僱用工人以滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。這種僱傭工人和滿足客戶支出的良性循環將有助於推動經濟發展,並有望在各個層面帶來更多的線路使用。您可以在幻燈片 5 上看到自 2020 年 3 月大流行開始以來的貸款路徑。如您所見,最近幾個月所有貸款都出現了。

  • But moving to Slide 6, you see the more traditional detail for our company. Let's start on the lower right-hand side of that slide and talking about the commercial portfolio. Commercial loan balances after adjusting for the reductions in PPP loans for quarter 2 forgiveness grew $15 billion. This is led by Global Markets client borrowing activity. But beyond that and still excluding the PPP loan forgiveness, middle-market lending group and our Business Banking team finally had growth in the month of June 2021, a first since last March.

    但是轉到幻燈片 6,您會看到我們公司更傳統的細節。讓我們從該幻燈片的右下方開始討論商業投資組合。調整第二季度 PPP 貸款減免後的商業貸款餘額增加了 150 億美元。這是由 Global Markets 客戶借貸活動主導的。但除此之外,仍然不包括 PPP 貸款減免,中間市場貸款集團和我們的商業銀行團隊終於在 2021 年 6 月實現了增長,這是自去年 3 月以來的首次增長。

  • Fueling some of this improvement is calling effectiveness. Relationship managers that have increased their calling efforts were now aggressively calling on targeted prospects. And with vaccination progress, face-to-face meetings have nearly doubled each month over the past 90 days. Commercial loans wealth management clients grew an impressive 5% in the quarter as these customers borrow through our custom lending products.

    推動這種改進的部分原因是呼叫效率。增加了呼叫工作的客戶關係經理現在積極地呼叫目標潛在客戶。隨著疫苗接種的進展,在過去 90 天裡,面對面的會議每月幾乎翻了一番。由於這些客戶通過我們的定制貸款產品借款,商業貸款財富管理客戶在本季度增長了 5%,令人印象深刻。

  • In small business, our Practice Solutions group, which supports medical, dental and veterinary practices, has been building throughout the quarter, and small business production overall is back to prepandemic levels.

    在小企業中,我們支持醫療、牙科和獸醫實踐的實踐解決方案小組在整個季度都在建設,小企業的生產總體上回到了大流行前的水平。

  • Turning to consumer loans. Overall growth of end-of-period loans was $6 billion. Card loans grew with increased spending even as customer payment percentages remained high. Auto originations have grown fairly consistently, although recently lower dealer supplies have affected that.

    轉向消費貸款。期末貸款的總體增長為 60 億美元。即使客戶支付百分比仍然很高,信用卡貸款也隨著支出的增加而增長。儘管最近經銷商供應減少對此產生了影響,但汽車生產量的增長相當穩定。

  • Mortgage balance growth, which is a big part of our loan portfolio in consumer, has been a challenge in the low-rate environment with high refinancing volumes exceeding originations in past quarters. We are only modestly down this quarter as our origination volumes are finally overcoming the payoffs.

    抵押貸款餘額增長是我們消費貸款組合的重要組成部分,在低利率環境中一直是一個挑戰,過去幾個季度的再融資量超過了發起量。本季度我們僅略有下降,因為我們的發起量終於克服了回報。

  • We are pleased with the trajectory through the period, and that feeds into the second half of the year. While average loans drive -- that loan balances during the third quarter will drive NII, it's good to start with a trend that has reversed the past quarters' declines.

    我們對這一時期的發展軌跡感到滿意,這將持續到今年下半年。雖然平均貸款推動——第三季度的貸款餘額將推動 NII,但最好從扭轉過去幾個季度下降的趨勢開始。

  • On NII, the good news is that we correctly called the bottom 3 quarters ago. We told you that we thought the third quarter of 2020 would be the trough. Despite the volatility and lower-rate moves and significant decline in loans, we've been able to hold NII at that level or more for 3 straight quarters. We expect it to move higher, and Paul is going to discuss that later.

    在 NII 上,好消息是我們在 3 個季度前正確地調用了底部。我們告訴過你,我們認為 2020 年第三季度將是低谷。儘管存在波動性和利率下降以及貸款大幅下降,但我們已經能夠連續三個季度將 NII 保持在該水平或更高水平。我們預計它會走得更高,保羅稍後會討論這個問題。

  • The other area I want to comment on is expense. We saw -- on a reported basis, we saw a $0.5 billion in expense reduction from first quarter of '21 to second quarter of '21. This quarter, we also had about $800 million in notable items for the aforementioned charitable contribution on unemployment claims process. Absent those notable items, expense would have been down about $1 billion and in the low $14 billion range. This is a level we are targeting to expense as we move through the rest of the year.

    我想評論的另一個領域是費用。我們看到 - 根據報告,我們看到從 21 年第一季度到 21 年第二季度的費用減少了 5 億美元。本季度,我們還有約 8 億美元的值得注意的項目用於上述失業申請程序的慈善捐款。如果沒有這些值得注意的項目,費用將減少約 10 億美元,並在 140 億美元的較低範圍內。這是我們在今年剩餘時間裡的目標支出水平。

  • In the second half of the year, as we normalize our operations, we'll continue to return our business as usual, working on process improvements that allow us to reduce our headcount and to continue to fund franchise investments. Headcount in the second quarter, including -- excluding the summer interns, declined by roughly 2,500 or over 1% from the first quarter.

    在今年下半年,隨著我們的運營正常化,我們將繼續像往常一樣恢復我們的業務,致力於流程改進,使我們能夠減少員工人數並繼續為特許經營投資提供資金。第二季度的員工人數,包括 - 不包括暑期實習生,比第一季度減少了大約 2,500 人或超過 1%。

  • So the messages for this quarter is straightforward. The organic growth machine that we had rolling before the pandemic hit is reemerging as the economy normalizes. We start to be careful to ensure that the war on the virus stays won, but we're seeing great trends. In retail and preferred and small business, we saw a strong production of core transaction accounts above prepandemic levels. This quarter was our best net sales growth in checking account since the second quarter 2015.

    因此,本季度的信息很簡單。隨著經濟正常化,我們在大流行之前滾動的有機增長機器正在重新出現。我們開始小心翼翼地確保對病毒的戰爭保持勝利,但我們看到了巨大的趨勢。在零售、首选和小型企業中,我們看到核心交易賬戶的強勁增長高於疫情前的水平。本季度是自 2015 年第二季度以來我們在支票賬戶中的最佳淨銷售額增長。

  • We saw our card production about 90% overall prepandemic. But net cards -- net of runoff were positive, the first time since the quarter -- first quarter of 2020 when we entered the pandemic. We saw growth in new Merrill Edge investment accounts, and Paul will talk to you about that. We saw a good mortgage production. We saw a stronger digital activity.

    我們看到我們的卡片生產大約 90% 是在大流行之前。但是淨卡——扣除徑流後的淨額是正數,這是我們進入大流行的 2020 年第一季度以來的第一次。我們看到新的 Merrill Edge 投資賬戶有所增長,Paul 將與您討論這一點。我們看到了良好的抵押貸款生產。我們看到了更強大的數字活動。

  • In wealth management, we saw household growth and strong flows continue to grow even with the use of our banking platform to grow its credit side. In Global Banking, we saw loan growth and new production coming on while line usage still remains very low. We saw investment banking closed this quarter with record pipelines.

    在財富管理方面,我們看到家庭增長和強勁流動繼續增長,即使使用我們的銀行平台來增加其信貸方面。在全球銀行業務中,我們看到貸款增長和新產品的出現,而線路使用率仍然很低。我們看到本季度的投資銀行業務以創紀錄的管道關閉。

  • In markets, we saw a strong first half even compared to 2020 and a strong second quarter, albeit with more normal seasonal impact. So normalizing more like '19 but still higher. And we saw headcount come down as operational excellence kicks in by over 2,000 people.

    在市場上,與 2020 年相比,我們看到上半年表現強勁,第二季度表現強勁,儘管季節性影響更為正常。所以標準化更像是'19,但仍然更高。隨著超過 2,000 人的卓越運營開始,我們看到員工人數下降。

  • We have work to do to keep driving down the core expenses and getting out the net COVID expenses over time. And above all, due to responsible growth, we saw strong core credit metrics. So as the economy continues to recover, we are seeing our organic growth engine kick back in.

    隨著時間的推移,我們有工作要做,以繼續降低核心費用並減少淨 COVID 費用。最重要的是,由於負責任的增長,我們看到了強大的核心信用指標。因此,隨著經濟繼續復甦,我們看到我們的有機增長引擎重新啟動。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Paul.

    有了這個,我會把它交給保羅。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone.

    謝謝,布賴恩。大家好。

  • I'm starting on Slide 7. As I have done in the past few quarters, the majority of my comments -- or excuse me, my comparisons will be relative to the prior quarter rather than year-over-year given the pandemic.

    我從幻燈片 7 開始。正如我在過去幾個季度所做的那樣,我的大部分評論——或者對不起,鑑於大流行,我的比較將與上一季度相關,而不是與去年同期相比。

  • Since Brian already covered a lot of the income statement, I will just add a couple of comments on revenue and returns. Revenue was down 6% from Q1. The decline was driven by lower sales and trading results that more than offset solid consumer and wealth management revenue, which was a result of higher card income and AUM fees.

    由於布賴恩已經涵蓋了很多損益表,我將僅添加一些關於收入和回報的評論。收入較第一季度下降 6%。下降的原因是銷售和交易結果下降,抵消了穩健的消費者和財富管理收入,這是卡收入和資產管理費用增加的結果。

  • It is also worth noting that while investment banking fees were down from a record Q1 level, they remained strong at more than $2 billion in Q2. Lastly, when comparing revenue against the prior year quarter, remember, Q2 '20 included a $704 million gain on the sale of some mortgage loans.

    還值得注意的是,雖然投資銀行費用從第一季度的創紀錄水平有所下降,但在第二季度仍保持強勁,超過 20 億美元。最後,在將收入與上一季度進行比較時,請記住,20 年第二季度包括出售一些抵押貸款的 7.04 億美元收益。

  • With respect to returns, our return on tangible common equity was 20% and ROA was 123 basis points, both benefiting from the positive tax adjustment and sizable reserve release.

    在回報方面,我們的有形普通股回報率為 20%,ROA 為 123 個基點,均受益於積極的稅收調整和可觀的儲備釋放。

  • Moving to Slide 8. Balance sheet expanded $60 billion versus Q1 to a little more than $3 trillion in total assets. Deposit growth of $24 billion supported $16 billion of loan growth while the combination of market-based funding and long-term debt issuance supported expansion of the balance sheet in Global Markets. Other notable movements on the balance sheet included the continued deployment of excess cash into securities. Securities increased $83 billion while cash declined $66 billion.

    轉到幻燈片 8。資產負債表與第一季度相比擴大了 600 億美元,總資產略高於 3 萬億美元。 240 億美元的存款增長支持了 160 億美元的貸款增長,而基於市場的融資和長期債券發行相結合,支持了全球市場資產負債表的擴張。資產負債表上的其他顯著變化包括繼續將多餘現金投入證券。證券增加了 830 億美元,而現金減少了 660 億美元。

  • Driven by the additional deposit growth, our liquidity portfolio remained above $1 trillion or 1/3 of the balance sheet. Shareholders' equity increased $3 billion as earnings outpaced capital distribution. Capital distributions of $5.8 billion were limited to the average of earnings in the previous 4 quarters for regulatory guidelines and were well below the $9 billion earned in the quarter.

    在額外存款增長的推動下,我們的流動性投資組合保持在 1 萬億美元以上,佔資產負債表的 1/3。由於收益超過資本分配,股東權益增加了 30 億美元。 58 億美元的資本分配僅限於監管指導方針的前 4 個季度的平均收益,遠低於本季度的 90 億美元。

  • With respect to regulatory ratios, consistent with Q1, standardized remained the binding approach for us and was down a little less than 30 basis points from Q1. While the CET1 ratio declined 30 basis points in Q1, it remained 200 basis points above our minimum requirement of 9.5%, which translates into a $31 billion capital cushion.

    在監管比率方面,與第一季度一致,標準化仍然是我們的約束方法,比第一季度下降了不到 30 個基點。雖然第一季度 CET1 比率下降了 30 個基點,但仍比我們的最低要求 9.5% 高 200 個基點,這相當於 310 億美元的資本緩衝。

  • While book value rose $3 billion, regulatory capital was up $1 billion as the $2 billion tax adjustment did not benefit CET1 capital. Higher RWA from the liquidity deployed to securities, growth in our markets balance sheet and higher GWIM loan activity more than offset the benefit to the ratio from higher capital.

    雖然賬面價值增加了 30 億美元,但監管資本增加了 10 億美元,因為 20 億美元的稅收調整併未使 CET1 資本受益。用於證券的流動性較高的 RWA、我們市場資產負債表的增長以及 GWIM 貸款活動的增加,足以抵消較高資本對比率帶來的好處。

  • Our supplemental leverage ratio at quarter end was 5.9%, dropping from the prior quarter primarily due to the removal of the regulatory relief. 5.9% versus a minimum requirement of 5% equates to approximately $600 billion of balance sheet capacity, which leaves us plenty of room for growth. Our TLAC ratio remained comfortably above our requirements.

    我們季度末的補充槓桿率為 5.9%,較上一季度有所下降,主要是由於取消了監管救濟。 5.9% 與 5% 的最低要求相比,相當於大約 6000 億美元的資產負債表容量,這為我們留下了充足的增長空間。我們的 TLAC 比率仍遠高於我們的要求。

  • Turning to Slide 9. Brian reviewed ending loan balances earlier, so I will focus on average balances, which are more closely linked to NII. As you look at the year-over-year trends, note that these numbers include PPP loans, which have been moving lower now for 2 quarters driven by forgiveness. You can see the change in those PPP levels on the slide.

    轉到幻燈片 9。布賴恩早些時候回顧了期末貸款餘額,所以我將關注與 NII 更密切相關的平均餘額。當您查看同比趨勢時,請注意這些數字包括 PPP 貸款,在寬恕的推動下,這些貸款現在已經下降了兩個季度。您可以在幻燈片上看到這些 PPP 水平的變化。

  • Focusing on the linked quarter change. While loans on an ending basis were up nicely, on an average basis even with a $3 billion decline in PPP balances, loans were flat. Wealth management and Global Markets experienced the most notable improvements. GWIM continued to benefit from security-based lending as well as custom lending while continuing to have solid mortgage performance.

    關注關聯季度的變化。雖然期末貸款增長良好,但平均而言,即使購買力平價餘額下降了 30 億美元,貸款也持平。財富管理和全球市場經歷了最顯著的改善。 GWIM 繼續受益於基於證券的貸款以及定制貸款,同時繼續保持穩健的抵押貸款業績。

  • In Global Markets, we looked for opportunities to lend to clients against a number of different asset types, creating mostly investment-grade exposures as a good use of our liquidity. In Consumer, we saw credit card loans stabilize for the first time in more than a year as credit spending ramped up and new accounts continued to build across the quarters. Quarterly new account levels are nearly back to 2019 levels.

    在全球市場,我們尋找機會向客戶提供多種不同資產類型的貸款,創造投資級風險敞口,充分利用我們的流動性。在消費者方面,我們看到信用卡貸款在一年多來首次穩定下來,因為信貸支出增加並且新賬戶在各個季度繼續增加。季度新賬戶水平幾乎回到 2019 年的水平。

  • With respect to deposits on Slide 10, we continued to see significant growth across the client base not only because of the growth in the money supply, but also because we added new accounts and attracted increased liquidity from existing customers. I would just note that the linked quarter growth on a spot basis included a headwind of about $34 billion from customer income tax outflow. Normally, we see deposits decline in the second quarter given tax payments. But this year, we saw strong growth even with these tax payments.

    關於幻燈片 10 上的存款,我們繼續看到整個客戶群的顯著增長,這不僅是因為貨幣供應量的增長,還因為我們增加了新賬戶並吸引了現有客戶的流動性增加。我只想指出,即期的相關季度增長包括來自客戶所得稅流出的約 340 億美元的逆風。通常情況下,由於納稅,我們看到第二季度存款下降。但今年,即使繳納了這些稅款,我們也看到了強勁的增長。

  • Turning to Slide 11 and net interest income. On a GAAP non-FTE basis, NII for Q2 was $10.2 billion, $10.3 billion on an FTE basis. Net interest income declined a little more than $600 million from Q2 '20 driven by the rate environment and lower loan balances, but showed modest improvement from Q1. Year-over-year comparisons beginning next quarter are expected to improve nicely as Q3 '20 has proven to be the nadir for NII. And we are expecting NII improvement in Q3 and Q4.

    轉向幻燈片 11 和淨利息收入。按 GAAP 非 FTE 計算,第二季度的 NII 為 102 億美元,按 FTE 計算為 103 億美元。由於利率環境和較低的貸款餘額,淨利息收入較 20 年第二季度下降了 6 億多美元,但與第一季度相比略有改善。由於 20 年第三季度已被證明是 NII 的最低點,預計下個季度開始的同比比較將得到很好的改善。我們預計第三季度和第四季度的 NII 會有所改善。

  • Compared to Q1, the benefit of an additional day of interest and liquidity deployed was offset by a lower level of PPP loan forgiveness, the absence of proceeds recorded in NII from the Q1 litigation settlement and modestly higher premium amortization expense. The net interest yield declined 7 basis points from Q1 driven by the continued addition of lower-yielding debt securities in Q1 and Q2 and a larger Global Markets balance sheet. Remember, as part of our liquidity that remain, I would include about $150 billion of debt securities hedged to floating, which earned a bit more than cash.

    與第一季度相比,額外一天的利息和流動性部署的好處被較低水平的 PPP 貸款寬恕、第一季度訴訟和解中沒有記錄在 NII 中的收益以及保費攤銷費用適度增加所抵消。由於第一季度和第二季度持續增加低收益債務證券以及更大的全球市場資產負債表,淨利息收益率較第一季度下降 7 個基點。請記住,作為我們剩餘流動性的一部分,我將包括約 1500 億美元對沖浮動的債務證券,其收益略高於現金。

  • As you'll note, given all the deposit growth at low rates, our asset sensitivity to rising rates remain significant and mostly unchanged from Q1, highlighting the value of our deposits and customer relationships.

    正如您將注意到的,鑑於所有存款以低利率增長,我們的資產對利率上升的敏感性仍然顯著,並且與第一季度相比基本保持不變,突出了我們存款和客戶關係的價值。

  • Let me give you a couple of thoughts around NII for the back half of the year. Last quarter, when the forward interest rate environment was 30 to 40 basis points higher, we told you we were targeting NII at roughly $1 billion higher in Q4 of this year. This quarter's loan growth is encouraging and supportive of this target and the slowdown in mortgage prepayments should also help improve NII.

    讓我給你一些關於下半年 NII 的想法。上個季度,當遠期利率環境高出 30 至 40 個基點時,我們告訴您,我們將今年第四季度的 NII 目標定為大約 10 億美元。本季度的貸款增長令人鼓舞並支持了這一目標,抵押貸款提前還款的放緩也應有助於改善 NII。

  • So while we still think getting NII $1 billion higher by 4Q is possible, admittedly, the recent significant decline in long-end rates presents a challenge. This possibility, of course, assumes loans continue to grow in the second half and rates don't move lower from here. To improve our chances, we could decide to deploy additional liquidity at higher fixed rates in the coming weeks and months as we evaluate the trade-offs between liquidity, capital and earnings.

    因此,儘管我們仍然認為到第四季度將 NII 提高 10 億美元是可能的,但不可否認,近期長期利率的大幅下降是一個挑戰。當然,這種可能性假設貸款在下半年繼續增長並且利率不會從現在開始走低。為了提高我們的機會,在我們評估流動性、資本和收益之間的權衡時,我們可以決定在未來幾周和幾個月內以更高的固定利率部署額外的流動性。

  • Turning to Slide 12 and expenses. Q2 expenses were $15 billion, $0.5 billion lower than Q1. While lower than Q1, the combination of the $500 million contribution to the foundation and the nearly $300 million increase in costs associated with unemployment claims processing kept expenses above the low $14 billion target shared with you last quarter. Outside of these 2 items, expense was lower driven by the absence of a few Q1 items, seasonal payroll taxes, the real estate impairment charge and the acceleration of expense due to incentive comp award changes. Additionally, lower incentive comp and severance costs also contributed to the decline.

    轉到幻燈片 12 和費用。第二季度支出為 150 億美元,比第一季度減少 5 億美元。雖然低於第一季度,但對基金會的 5 億美元捐款以及與失業申請處理相關的近 3 億美元的成本增加相結合,使支出高於上一季度與您分享的 140 億美元的低目標。除了這兩個項目之外,由於缺少一些第一季度項目、季節性工資稅、房地產減值費用以及激勵補償獎勵變化導致的費用加速,費用較低。此外,較低的激勵補償和遣散費也導致了下降。

  • Lastly, our COVID cost saw a modest decline as some pandemic-related employee programs began to roll off, but this was mitigated to a certain degree by preparation costs for associates returning to the office.

    最後,隨著一些與大流行病相關的員工計劃開始推出,我們的 COVID 成本略有下降,但這在一定程度上被員工返回辦公室的準備成本所緩解。

  • As we go to the segments, I would just note that the sizable foundation contribution was allocated to the lines of business and therefore, negatively impact comparisons to prior quarters. As we look forward, we continue to invest at a high rate in people and in technology and in new financial centers. We are seeing the benefits of these investments. And now as we move forward, we expect that natural attrition will allow us to reduce headcount as we transition back to a more normal business environment. As Brian mentioned, excluding summer interns, our headcount this quarter moved down by about 2,500 people.

    當我們進入細分市場時,我只想指出,可觀的基金會貢獻分配給了業務線,因此對與前幾個季度的比較產生了負面影響。展望未來,我們將繼續對人員、技術和新金融中心進行高速投資。我們看到了這些投資的好處。現在,隨著我們向前邁進,我們預計自然減員將使我們能夠在過渡回更正常的商業環境時減少員工人數。正如布賴恩所說,不包括暑期實習生,本季度我們的員工人數減少了約 2,500 人。

  • Turning to asset quality on Slide 13. Nothing but good news to report here. Net charge-offs this quarter fell to $595 million or 27 basis points of average loans. This is the lowest loss rate in more than 2 decades. That is 28% lower than Q1 and more than 30% below the second quarter of 2019. Our credit card loss rate was 2.67%, and several loan product categories were in recovery positions this quarter.

    轉向幻燈片 13 上的資產質量。這裡只有好消息要報告。本季度的淨沖銷額降至 5.95 億美元或平均貸款的 27 個基點。這是20多年來最低的損失率。這比第一季度低 28%,比 2019 年第二季度低 30% 以上。我們的信用卡損失率為 2.67%,本季度多個貸款產品類別處於恢復狀態。

  • Provision was $1.6 billion -- was a $1.6 billion benefit -- net benefit driven by the continued improvement in the macroeconomic outlook, which resulted in the $2.2 billion release of credit reserves split fairly evenly between consumer and commercial loans. Our allowance as a percent of loans and leases ended the quarter at 1.55%, which is still well above the 1.27%, which was the level as we begun 2020 following our day 1 adoption of CECL. And as a reminder, the mix of our loans has also changed since CECL day 1. To the extent the economic outlook and remaining uncertainties continue to improve, we expect our reserve levels could move lower.

    撥備為 16 億美元——是 16 億美元的收益——由宏觀經濟前景持續改善推動的淨收益,這導致 22 億美元的信貸準備金在消費貸款和商業貸款之間平均分配。我們的撥備佔貸款和租賃的百分比在本季度結束時為 1.55%,仍遠高於 1.27%,這是我們在第一天採用 CECL 後開始 2020 年的水平。提醒一下,自 CECL 第 1 天以來,我們的貸款組合也發生了變化。在經濟前景和剩餘不確定性繼續改善的範圍內,我們預計我們的儲備水平可能會降低。

  • Okay. On Slide 14, we show the credit quality metrics for both the consumer and commercial portfolios, a couple of points I would make here. With respect to card losses, given the continued low level of late-stage delinquencies in the 180-day pipeline, we would expect card losses to decline again in Q3. For at least the next couple of quarters, I would expect total net charge-offs to moderate around the current level with lower card losses partially offset by lower net recoveries and other products. With respect to commercial metrics, reservable criticized exposure and NPLs both declined in the quarter.

    好的。在幻燈片 14 中,我們展示了消費者和商業投資組合的信用質量指標,我將在這裡提出幾點。關於卡損失,鑑於 180 天管道中的後期拖欠水平持續較低,我們預計卡損失將在第三季度再次下降。至少在接下來的幾個季度中,我預計總淨沖銷將在當前水平附近放緩,較低的卡損失部分被較低的淨回收和其他產品所抵消。在商業指標方面,可保留的批評風險敞口和不良貸款在本季度均有所下降。

  • Turning to the business segments and starting with Consumer on Slide 15. Consumer Banking produced another good quarter with strong customer deposit and investment flows and the return of card loan growth. This reflects the strength of our brand, our digital innovations and the deployment of specialists in our centers, all of which enabled us to capture more than our fair share of the increase in customer liquidity.

    轉向業務部門,從幻燈片 15 上的消費者開始。消費者銀行業務創造了另一個良好的季度,客戶存款和投資流量強勁,卡貸款增長回升。這反映了我們品牌的實力、我們的數字創新以及我們中心專家的部署,所有這些都使我們能夠在客戶流動性增加中獲得超過我們公平份額的份額。

  • As Brian said earlier, this was a quarter of reopening where both our high-tech and high-touch capabilities delivered growth in client activity. Given vaccination progress, we reopened certain financial centers, more of our associates were at their posts in our financial centers and customer traffic was up. All of the above drove higher sales in our centers. At the same time, we also saw increased sales through digital channels, which suggests increases in digital engagement are here to stay.

    正如布賴恩早些時候所說,這是重新開放的四分之一,我們的高科技和高接觸能力都帶來了客戶活動的增長。鑑於疫苗接種的進展,我們重新開放了某些金融中心,更多的員工在我們的金融中心工作,客戶流量增加。以上所有因素推動了我們中心的更高銷售額。與此同時,我們還看到通過數字渠道的銷售額增加,這表明數字參與度的增加將持續存在。

  • The segment earned $3 billion in Q2, 13% higher than Q1 as revenue, expense and credit costs all showed improvement. Revenue improved 1%, reflecting higher card income on increased purchase volumes and modestly higher account service charges on ATM usage. Expenses moved lower versus Q1 given the absence of the Q1 real estate impairment costs and seasonal higher payroll tax expense.

    該部門在第二季度賺取了 30 億美元,比第一季度高出 13%,因為收入、費用和信貸成本都顯示出改善。收入增長 1%,反映出購買量增加帶來的卡收入增加以及 ATM 使用的賬戶服務費用略有增加。由於沒有第一季度的房地產減值成本和季節性較高的工資稅費用,費用與第一季度相比有所下降。

  • We also saw some modest improvement in COVID costs as some of the elevated pandemic-related associated costs began to wind down. Our cost of deposits this quarter improved to an impressive 118 basis points. The team has done a great job of servicing more and more deposits while maintaining a strong cost discipline aided by digital engagement. Looking back at Q2 '19, we have added 38% more deposits while expenses have only increased a little more than 3% annually in support of all that new activity even with COVID.

    隨著與大流行相關的一些高昂的相關成本開始下降,我們還看到 COVID 成本略有改善。我們本季度的存款成本提高到令人印象深刻的 118 個基點。該團隊在為越來越多的存款提供服務方面做得非常出色,同時在數字參與的幫助下保持了強大的成本紀律。回顧 19 年第二季度,我們增加了 38% 的存款,而費用每年僅增加了 3% 以上,以支持所有新活動,即使在 COVID 的情況下也是如此。

  • On Slide 16, you can see the significant increase in consumer deposits and investments. Average deposits of $979 billion are up $55 billion linked quarter and nearly $170 billion from Q2 '20 with more than 60% of that growth in checking. Rate paid is down to 2 basis points as 56% of the deposits are low-interest checking.

    在幻燈片 16 上,您可以看到消費者存款和投資顯著增加。 9790 億美元的平均存款比 20 年第二季度增加了 550 億美元,比 20 年第二季度增加了近 1700 億美元,其中支票增長超過 60%。由於 56% 的存款是低息支票,因此支付的利率降至 2 個基點。

  • We covered loans earlier, but I would just note that while average loans are down linked quarter, period-end loans are up modestly, excluding PPP, as growth in card balances and vehicle lending outpaced a small decline in mortgages.

    我們早些時候涵蓋了貸款,但我只想指出,雖然平均貸款與季度掛鉤,但期末貸款小幅上升,不包括購買力平價,因為卡餘額和汽車貸款的增長超過了抵押貸款的小幅下降。

  • With respect to investment balances, we reached a new record of $346 billion, growing 40% year-over-year as customers continue to recognize the value of our online offering.

    在投資餘額方面,我們創下了 3460 億美元的新紀錄,同比增長 40%,因為客戶繼續認識到我們在線產品的價值。

  • Okay. On Slide 17, I'll highlight a couple of points regarding the continued improvement in engagement. After crossing 40 million digital users in Q1, we added another 0.25 million users in Q2. This quarter, 70% of our consumer households use some part of our digital platform. We also reached 2.6 billion log-ins from customers in the last 90 days. And while you will note the tremendous Erica and Zelle usage, what I would draw your attention to is the digital sales growth, which is up 26% year-over-year. 85% of booked mortgages in the quarter were done digitally while 77% of direct vehicle loans were digital.

    好的。在幻燈片 17 中,我將重點介紹有關持續改進參與度的幾點。在第一季度突破 4000 萬數字用戶後,我們在第二季度又增加了 25 萬用戶。本季度,我們 70% 的消費者家庭使用我們的部分數字平台。在過去 90 天內,我們的客戶登錄次數也達到了 26 億次。雖然您會注意到 Erica 和 Zelle 的巨大使用量,但我要提請您注意的是數字銷售增長,同比增長 26%。本季度 85% 的預定抵押貸款是通過數字方式完成的,而 77% 的直接車輛貸款是數字化的。

  • Turning to wealth management. The continued economic reopening and strong market conditions led to records in average deposits, loans, investment balances and asset management fees in Q2. Both Merrill and the Private Bank contributed to this improvement. Growth in gross new households at Merrill continued and the average size of the new households is larger this year than last year. And at the same time, net new households grew but at a slower pace given expensive competitive hiring practice across the industry.

    轉向財富管理。持續的經濟重新開放和強勁的市場狀況導致第二季度的平均存款、貸款、投資餘額和資產管理費用均創歷史新高。美林和私人銀行都為這一改善做出了貢獻。美林的新住戶總數繼續增長,今年新住戶的平均規模大於去年。與此同時,由於整個行業昂貴的競爭性招聘實踐,淨新家庭增長但速度較慢。

  • We remain committed to organic growth in our advisers and private client sales force as a stronger, more sustainable long-term strategy. Net income of nearly $1 billion improved 12% from Q1 as we saw improvement in both revenue and expense.

    我們仍然致力於將我們的顧問和私人客戶銷售隊伍的有機增長作為一項更強大、更可持續的長期戰略。由於我們看到收入和支出都有所改善,近 10 億美元的淨收入比第一季度增長了 12%。

  • With respect to revenue, the record AUM fees complemented higher NII on the back of solid loan and deposit increases. Expenses dropped as the absence of seasonally elevated payroll tax in Q1 was partially offset by higher revenue-related costs. Client balances rose to a record of $3.7 trillion, up $725 billion year-over-year driven by higher market levels as well as strong client flows.

    在收入方面,創紀錄的 AUM 費用補充了穩健的貸款和存款增加帶來的更高的 NII。由於第一季度沒有季節性上漲的工資稅,部分費用被收入相關成本增加所抵消,因此費用下降。在更高的市場水平和強勁的客戶流量的推動下,客戶餘額升至創紀錄的 3.7 萬億美元,同比增長 7,250 億美元。

  • Let's skip to Slide 20, which highlights our progress to digitally engage wealth management clients. In both Merrill Lynch and the Private Bank, we are focused on 3 pillars for digital engagement: one, digital adoption and deeper engagement; two, modernizing our platform for advisers and clients; and three, secure and easy collaboration with clients.

    讓我們跳到幻燈片 20,它突出了我們在數字化吸引財富管理客戶方面取得的進展。在美林和私人銀行,我們專注於數字參與的 3 個支柱:一、數字採用和更深入的參與;二,使我們的顧問和客戶平台現代化;三、與客戶的安全、輕鬆協作。

  • We provided stats on Slide 20 that show record levels of digital engagement improved further in Q2. These are some of the highest levels of digital activity across our customers. More and more clients are logging in to easily trade, check balances and originate loans all through one simplified sign-on. 70% of checks deposited by the Private Bank clients and more than half of checks from Merrill clients are being deposited digitally now.

    我們在幻燈片 20 上提供的統計數據顯示,第二季度數字參與度的創紀錄水平進一步提高。這些是我們客戶的一些最高水平的數字活動。越來越多的客戶通過一個簡化的登錄來輕鬆地進行交易、檢查餘額和發放貸款。現在,私人銀行客戶存入的支票和美林客戶存入的支票中有 70% 以數字方式存入。

  • And through leveraging Erica-based AI capabilities and through use of WebEx meetings and secure text messaging, we are making it easy and more efficient for clients to do business with us wherever and however they choose. This creates additional capacity for our advisers to spend more time with existing and potential clients.

    通過利用基於 Erica 的 AI 功能,以及通過使用 WebEx 會議和安全文本消息,我們讓客戶可以更輕鬆、更高效地隨時隨地與我們開展業務。這為我們的顧問創造了額外的能力,可以花更多的時間與現有和潛在客戶打交道。

  • All right. Moving to Global Banking on Slide 21. The business earned $2.4 billion in Q2, improving $251 million from Q1. Strong revenue growth and lower expenses were mitigated by a lower provision benefit than Q1. Deposit growth maintained or remained strong and increased $20 billion to a new record.

    好的。在幻燈片 21 上轉向全球銀行業務。該業務在第二季度賺取了 24 億美元,比第一季度增加了 2.51 億美元。與第一季度相比,撥備收益較低,緩解了強勁的收入增長和較低的支出。存款增長保持或保持強勁,增加了 200 億美元,創歷史新高。

  • Outside of PPP loan figures, we saw modest growth across the platform, as discussed earlier. Revenue growth reflected the absence of the prior quarter impairment on clean energy investments as well as increased ESG investments. Revenue also included strong firm-wide IB fees of $2.1 billion, down only modestly from the record Q1 level. This performance resulted in an improvement to a #3 ranking in overall fees with a pipeline that remains strong. Strong debt issuance was more than offset by lower equity underwriting fees.

    如前所述,除 PPP 貸款數據外,我們還看到整個平台的適度增長。收入增長反映了上一季度清潔能源投資沒有減值以及 ESG 投資增加。收入還包括 21 億美元的強勁全公司 IB 費用,僅比第一季度創紀錄的水平略有下降。這一表現導致整體費用排名上升至第三,管道仍然強勁。強勁的債券發行被較低的股票承銷費所抵消。

  • We had a provision benefit driven by a reserve release of $834 million in Q2, which was $328 million lower than the Q1 release. Net charge-offs were near 0, reflecting both low charge-offs and a notable recovery in the quarter. Noninterest expense declined 7% from Q1, reflecting lower compensation partially offset by other costs.

    我們在第二季度釋放了 8.34 億美元的儲備金,這比第一季度的釋放量減少了 3.28 億美元,從而帶來了撥備收益。淨沖銷接近於 0,反映了該季度的低沖銷和顯著復甦。非利息費用較第一季度下降 7%,反映出較低的薪酬部分被其他成本所抵消。

  • We've already covered much of the balance sheet on Slide 22, so let's get to digital trends on Slide 23. We continued our investments in digital solutions that deliver the efficiencies for both clients and our employees. The solutions for clients have a compounded effect since they invariably mean less manual intervention by the bank, enhancing both efficiency and satisfaction. Enhanced banking solutions are helping us capture greater market share as wholesale clients do more with their banking partners -- do more with banking partners that are stable and secure and that have the capability to invest in new technologies that will provide better data and global integrated solutions.

    我們已經在幻燈片 22 上介紹了大部分資產負債表,所以讓我們在幻燈片 23 上了解數字趨勢。我們繼續投資於為客戶和員工提供效率的數字解決方案。為客戶提供的解決方案具有復合效應,因為它們總是意味著銀行減少人工干預,從而提高效率和滿意度。增強的銀行解決方案正在幫助我們獲得更大的市場份額,因為批發客戶與他們的銀行合作夥伴做更多的事情 - 與穩定和安全的銀行合作夥伴一起做更多的事情,並且有能力投資於提供更好的數據和全球集成解決方案的新技術.

  • Digitization, and in particular, artificial intelligence, is helping us streamline processes and respond to clients more quickly and efficiently. As an example, our bankers are using technology powered by Erica to not only better manage credit exposure, but also identify and win new business. We present some wholesale digital highlights on Slide 23.

    數字化,尤其是人工智能,正在幫助我們簡化流程並更快、更有效地響應客戶。例如,我們的銀行家正在使用由 Erica 提供支持的技術,不僅可以更好地管理信用風險,還可以識別和贏得新業務。我們在幻燈片 23 上展示了一些批發數字亮點。

  • Switching to Global Markets on Slide 24. Results reflect solid but lower sales and trading activity, as noted earlier. While down from the more elevated pandemic periods, trading revenue is still 10% or so higher from Q2 '19. As I usually do, I will talk about results excluding DVA. This quarter, net DVA was negligible, but the year ago quarter had a $261 million loss. Global Markets produced $934 million of earnings in Q2, down more than $1.1 billion compared to either Q1 or the year ago quarter.

    在幻燈片 24 上切換到全球市場。如前所述,結果反映了穩定但較低的銷售和交易活動。雖然從更高的大流行時期有所下降,但交易收入仍比 19 年第二季度高出 10% 左右。像往常一樣,我將討論不包括 DVA 的結果。本季度,淨 DVA 可以忽略不計,但去年同期虧損 2.61 億美元。 Global Markets 在第二季度創造了 9.34 億美元的收益,與第一季度或去年同期相比下降了超過 11 億美元。

  • Focusing on the year-over-year. Revenue was down 15% driven by the reduction in sales and trading. The year-over-year expense increase was driven by higher costs associated with processing unemployment claims and the activity related to sales and trading costs. Compared to Q1 expense, the higher unemployment processing costs were mostly offset by lower compensation.

    專注於年復一年。由於銷售和交易減少,收入下降了 15%。與去年同期相比,費用增加的原因是與處理失業申請相關的更高成本以及與銷售和交易成本相關的活動。與第一季度的費用相比,較高的失業處理成本主要被較低的補償所抵消。

  • Sales and trading contributed $3.6 billion to revenue, declining 19% year-over-year. FICC declined 38% while equities improved 33%, recording one of the strongest equity performances in our history. FICC results reflected the much more robust trading environment in the year ago period, particularly for macro products. Q2 '21 saw credit tightened and agency mortgages endured a difficult trading environment given the volatility of rates. The strength in equities was driven by a strong trading performance in derivatives and increased client activity notably in derivatives and in Asia.

    銷售和貿易為收入貢獻了 36 億美元,同比下降 19%。 FICC 下跌 38%,而股票上漲 33%,是我們歷史上最強勁的股票表現之一。 FICC 的結果反映了去年同期更為強勁的交易環境,尤其是宏觀產品。鑑於利率的波動,21 年第二季度信貸收緊,機構抵押貸款經歷了艱難的交易環境。股市走強的原因是衍生品交易表現強勁,以及客戶活動增加,尤其是衍生品和亞洲的客戶活動增加。

  • On Slide 25, we note half year revenue trends across the last few years. As you can see, while the pandemic elevated results in 2020, 2021 remains well above the prior years presented driven by continued client activity and volatility in the market.

    在幻燈片 25 上,我們注意到過去幾年的半年收入趨勢。如您所見,雖然大流行在 2020 年提升了業績,但在客戶持續活動和市場波動的推動下,2021 年仍遠高於前幾年。

  • Finally, on Slide 26, we show All Other, which reported profit of $1.9 billion. The $2 billion tax adjustment benefited results. Absent this benefit, we would have reported [$176 million loss, which is a decline of $432] (corrected by company after the call) million from Q1 '21 driven by lower revenue.

    最後,在幻燈片 26 上,我們展示了 All Other,它報告的利潤為 19 億美元。 20 億美元的稅收調整使結果受益。如果沒有這種好處,由於收入下降,我們將報告 [1.76 億美元的損失,下降了 432 美元](在電話會議後由公司更正)21 年第一季度的百萬美元。

  • Revenue declined $545 million, reflecting 2 impacts: first, higher partnership losses on ESG -- on increased ESG investments. As you know, we record grossed-up revenue from these investments on an FTE basis in Global Banking, paid the full tax there and then backed out those entries in All Other. You can also see the increase in ESG investment in Q2 in other income on our consolidated income statement where partnership losses are booked. While this loss impacts revenue, it is more than made up for on the tax line. We expect our tax credits and associated losses in consolidated other income to increase by at least $100 million in Q3. And keep in mind, Q4 is normally even higher, reflecting seasonal activity.

    收入下降了 5.45 億美元,反映了兩個影響:首先,ESG 上的合作夥伴損失增加——ESG 投資增加。如您所知,我們在全球銀行業務中以 FTE 為基礎記錄這些投資的總收入,在那裡支付了全部稅款,然後在所有其他中取消了這些條目。您還可以在我們的合併損益表中的其他收入中看到第二季度 ESG 投資的增加,其中計入了合夥損失。雖然這種損失會影響收入,但它在稅線上得到了彌補。我們預計我們的稅收抵免和合併其他收入中的相關損失將在第三季度至少增加 1 億美元。請記住,第四季度通常會更高,這反映了季節性活動。

  • Revenue in All Other was also impacted by some refinancing activity. We called and refinanced higher cost structured notes, which pushed some AOCI back to the income statement. Our effective tax rate this quarter, excluding the $2 billion tax adjustment, was 10.7%. And further excluding tax credits driven by our portfolio of ESG investments, our tax rate would have been 25%. For the second half of '21 absent any changes in current tax laws or any other unusual items, we expect our effective tax rate to be in a range of 10% to 12%.

    所有其他的收入也受到一些再融資活動的影響。我們調用並為成本較高的結構化票據再融資,這將一些 AOCI 推回了損益表。我們本季度的有效稅率(不包括 20 億美元的稅收調整)為 10.7%。進一步排除由我們的 ESG 投資組合驅動的稅收抵免,我們的稅率將為 25%。對於 21 年下半年,在現行稅法或任何其他異常項目沒有任何變化的情況下,我們預計我們的有效稅率將在 10% 至 12% 之間。

  • Okay. With that, we're ready to go to Q&A.

    好的。有了這個,我們準備好去問答了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our first question from Glenn Schorr with Evercore ISI.

    我們將向 Evercore ISI 的 Glenn Schorr 提出第一個問題。

  • Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I wondered if we could contextualize that, your loan growth inflection conversation. I heard you on cards and auto contributing to the modest pickup on period-end loans. So I'm wondering what confidence level you have of that continuing in the second half. Will it be card, auto or will middle-market, M&A or anything else start contributing? And then maybe most importantly, do you think 2022 could be a normal-ish loan growth year, say, low to mid-single digits like you had been running?

    我想知道我們是否可以將您的貸款增長拐點對話背景化。我聽說您在信用卡和汽車方面為期末貸款的適度回升做出了貢獻。所以我想知道你對下半場繼續保持的信心水平。是卡片、汽車還是中間市場、併購或其他任何東西開始貢獻力量?然後也許最重要的是,您是否認為 2022 年可能是一個正常的貸款增長年,比如像您一直在運行的中低個位數?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Glenn, I think if you look across all the businesses on an end-of-period basis had loan growth, which bodes well. The usage on lines is still low. And so that is still running in the low 30s, which is about 1,000 basis points on average lower in the banking segment. But what you see underneath that is that even Business Banking, which is the segment from $5 million to $50 million, is net growing finally, and it was the most affected by the PPP runoff. And the runoff of PPP in the quarter was $6 billion, $7 billion or something like that.

    格倫,我認為,如果您在期末查看所有企業的貸款增長情況,那是個好兆頭。線上的使用率仍然很低。因此,它仍處於 30 年代的低位,在銀行業平均低約 1,000 個基點。但你在下面看到的是,即使是從 500 萬美元到 5000 萬美元的商業銀行業務,最終也實現了淨增長,並且受 PPP 徑流影響最大。本季度 PPP 的徑流是 60 億美元、70 億美元或類似的東西。

  • So we -- in Paul's basically flat average balances, that included -- he overcame that. So we feel good as we look across those things. So what you really see is the net car production back to prepandemic. You see gross car production basically about 90% of prepandemic. You see autos which will pick back up as inventories become available.

    所以我們 - 在保羅基本持平的平均餘額中,包括 - 他克服了這一點。所以當我們看到這些東西時,我們感覺很好。所以你真正看到的是汽車淨產量回到了疫情前。您會看到汽車總產量基本上是大流行前的 90%。您會看到隨著庫存可用而恢復的汽車。

  • And the real driver on the consumer side is mortgages. We're basically holding our own right now. And that was different than, frankly, on the refi side. We lost some balances through the last several quarters. And on the commercial side, it's really line usage honestly can't go any lower. Maybe it can, but theoretically, it can't because it's been stuck here for a good 4 or 5 quarters with the activity. But the auto dealer line usage, which is in outside of the house, for example, is very low than it traditionally is. So we expect those to pick back up. But the key is they're actually producing more customers and more clients even with the low usage and the loans are starting to grow.

    消費者方面的真正驅動力是抵押貸款。我們現在基本上擁有自己的。坦率地說,這與 refi 方面不同。在過去的幾個季度中,我們失去了一些餘額。在商業方面,它的線路使用率真的不能再低了。也許可以,但從理論上講,它不能,因為它在活動中被困在這裡 4 或 5 個季度。但是,例如,在房子外面的汽車經銷商線路使用率比傳統上要低得多。因此,我們希望那些能夠回升。但關鍵是,即使使用率低,他們實際上也產生了更多的客戶和更多的客戶,而且貸款開始增長。

  • Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Sounds like we got a shot.

    聽起來我們中了一槍。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Glenn Paul Schorr - Senior MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Maybe a very similar question on expenses, and then I'll be done. You noted that there's some COVID expenses still in there. But excluding the 2 one-timers you called out, we're still in the low 14s. It sounds like 57 -- low $57 billion range for the year is okay. Should -- we've asked this question every year, any one of us have. Should '22 be materially different than '21 given how you're able to fund a lot of your investments internally?

    也許是關於費用的一個非常相似的問題,然後我就完成了。您注意到其中仍有一些 COVID 費用。但除了你喊出的 2 個一次性計時器,我們仍然處於 14 秒的低位。聽起來 57 - 今年低 570 億美元的範圍是可以的。應該——我們每年都問過這個問題,我們每個人都問過這個問題。考慮到您如何能夠在內部為大量投資提供資金,22 年是否應該與 21 年有很大不同?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • So Glenn, it's Paul. We're not providing specific '22 expense outlook. But I will offer the following thoughts, which I think answer your question.

    所以格倫,是保羅。我們沒有提供具體的 '22 費用展望。但我將提供以下想法,我認為這些想法可以回答您的問題。

  • So our rough estimate for the fourth quarter expense is a range of low $14 billion. I think if you add to that the seasonal higher payroll tax, approximately $350 million in Q1, plus add in 1% inflationary costs that we have talked about now for many quarters -- remember, if we do nothing, costs would grow by 3% or 4%, but we're driving that lower every year and quarter through OpEx, SIEM and other initiatives.

    因此,我們對第四季度費用的粗略估計為 140 億美元。我認為,如果加上季節性較高的工資稅,第一季度約為 3.5 億美元,再加上我們現在已經討論了很多個季度的 1% 的通貨膨脹成本——請記住,如果我們什麼都不做,成本將增長 3%或 4%,但我們通過 OpEx、SIEM 和其他舉措每年和每季度都在降低這一數字。

  • But if you take the 4Q expense, you add the higher seasonal payroll tax, you add 1%, that's a good base, I think. And then from there, just based upon whatever assumption you want to make around higher revenue expectations in areas that are closely linked to compensation and exchange fees, I think if you do that math, you'll have a pretty good number.

    但是,如果你計算第四季度的費用,加上更高的季節性工資稅,你加上 1%,我認為這是一個很好的基礎。然後從那裡開始,僅基於您想在與薪酬和交易費用密切相關的領域做出更高收入預期的任何假設,我認為如果您進行數學計算,您將獲得一個相當不錯的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

    我們將回答德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor 的下一個問題。

  • Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

    Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

  • I know in recent quarters, I've been asking about just the thought process on how you deploy liquidity and securities. And look, it's been the right call because you were buying what felt like low rates, but rates have gone down again. But I just want to circle back on like what is the thought process you had alluded to potentially deploying more liquidity in the coming weeks. And I guess I step back and it seems like your loans are starting to grow, deposit growth starting to slow and again, rates have ticked down again. So why lock in kind of 10-year duration at these levels with that as a backdrop?

    我知道最近幾個季度,我一直在詢問有關如何部署流動性和證券的思考過程。看,這是正確的選擇,因為你買的是低利率的東西,但利率又下降了。但我只想回過頭來談談你提到的可能在未來幾週內部署更多流動性的思考過程。而且我想我退後一步,您的貸款似乎開始增長,存款增長開始放緩,利率再次下降。那麼,為什麼要以此為背景將 10 年的期限鎖定在這些水平上呢?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Matt, let -- I'll let Paul hit it more specifically. But one of the things that we just have to always keep in mind, and you've touched on, is that deposits have crossed $1.9 trillion and the loans are $900 million and change. And that difference has got to be put to work. And the reality is we generated $80 billion deposit growth, and we got to put it to work. And that's what we do.

    是的。馬特,讓-- 我會讓保羅更具體地擊中它。但是,我們必須始終牢記的一件事是,您已經提到過,存款已超過 1.9 萬億美元,而貸款為 9 億美元,而且還在發生變化。這種差異必鬚髮揮作用。現實情況是,我們創造了 800 億美元的存款增長,我們必須付諸實施。這就是我們所做的。

  • And so we're not timing the market or betting or -- it away. We just sort of deploy it when we're sure it's really going to be there. And so that's been our strategy. And yes, we put some to work. And it turned out to be, in the aftermath, a good thing. I think, frankly, I'd rather have a higher-rate structure. It'd be better for long-term earnings of the company, but I'll let Paul talk about redeploying.

    因此,我們不會對市場進行計時,也不會下注或--它消失了。當我們確定它真的會在那裡時,我們只是在某種程度上部署它。這就是我們的策略。是的,我們投入了一些工作。事後證明,這是一件好事。我認為,坦率地說,我寧願有一個更高利率的結構。這對公司的長期收益會更好,但我會讓保羅談談重新部署。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes. I mean I don't know what specifics you're looking for, but I would echo some of Brian's comments. I think we've been very balanced. We -- if you look at the results, compared to other banks, we've maintained our NII for the last few quarters here. We called the bottom in the third quarter. But at the same time we were doing that, we still are reserving significant liquidity. So we have a lot of dry powder as we sit here today, and more deposits are coming.

    是的。我的意思是我不知道你在尋找什麼細節,但我會回應布賴恩的一些評論。我認為我們已經非常平衡了。我們——如果你看一下結果,與其他銀行相比,我們在這裡的最後幾個季度保持了我們的 NII。我們在第三季度觸底。但在我們這樣做的同時,我們仍在保留大量流動性。所以我們今天坐在這裡有很多乾粉,還有更多的存款。

  • Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

    Matthew Derek O'Connor - MD in Equity Research

  • So should we just think about it, loans plus securities will basically equal deposits? So if the loan growth is modest but you keep growing deposits, they're just flowed in the securities kind of regardless of rates?

    那麼我們是否應該考慮一下,貸款加證券基本上等於存款?因此,如果貸款增長適中,但您的存款不斷增長,它們只是流入證券,而不管利率如何?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. You got to take out. We do have to keep straight cash, obviously, that we show you. But that's generally the way to think about it. And the debate is the -- remember, we hedged a lot of the stuff that we bought just to protect ourselves a little bit. But that's the simple way to think about it. In the bank side balance sheet, that's the simple way to think about it. But obviously, the securities front is different.

    是的。你得拿出來。顯然,我們必須保留我們向您展示的直接現金。但這通常是考慮它的方式。爭論是——記住,我們對沖了很多我們購買的東西只是為了保護自己。但這是考慮它的簡單方法。在銀行方面的資產負債表中,這是考慮它的簡單方法。但顯然,證券方面是不同的。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • We -- I'll just reiterate, like you said, we're going to get deposits. It's going to fund loan growth. Whatever leftover will probably go in securities, but then we still have a bunch of excess liquidity. So that can be deployed as well either in the near term or long term depending on how we balance liquidity against capital and earnings.

    我們 - 我只是重申,就像你說的,我們將獲得存款。它將為貸款增長提供資金。剩下的任何東西都可能會進入證券,但我們仍然有一堆過剩的流動性。因此,這也可以在短期或長期內部署,具體取決於我們如何平衡流動性與資本和收益。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • And actually, going back to Glenn's question, Matt, one of the things we can't take advantage of is our extreme efficiency in the consumer business with the rate structure. And so I think they got down and they're pushing towards 120 basis points of deposits because they're growing core checking customers at a more rapid pace than we've grown in a while.

    實際上,回到格倫的問題,馬特,我們不能利用的一件事是我們在費率結構下在消費者業務中的極端效率。所以我認為他們下降了,他們正在推動 120 個基點的存款,因為他們正在以比我們一段時間內增長更快的速度增長核心支票客戶。

  • So consistently quarter after quarter after quarter, that's going to stick to our RIPs. You don't pay anything for it. And as rates rise, it will drive the efficiency, but this time, we haven't had a chance to take advantage of it, frankly, because of the rate structure.

    因此,一個季度又一個季度始終如一,這將堅持我們的 RIP。您無需為此支付任何費用。隨著利率上升,它會提高效率,但是這一次,坦率地說,由於利率結構,我們沒有機會利用它。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll take our next question from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo.

    我們將向富國銀行的 Mike Mayo 提出下一個問題。

  • Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

    Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

  • I'm stuck on Slide 17 with the digital usage. So I guess you have a record number of digital users, 70%. You highlighted digital sales of 26% year-over-year. Where aspirationally do you want that to go? And what can be the impact on headcount and expenses?

    我被困在幻燈片 17 的數字使用上。所以我猜你的數字用戶數量達到了創紀錄的 70%。您強調數字銷售額同比增長 26%。你希望它去哪裡?對員工人數和費用有什麼影響?

  • And it's the same question I asked before. You have best-in-class digital cost of deposits in the consumer, the lowest in the industry, but doesn't translate to the overall firm. So I'm just trying to connect the dots from your great digital usage to better efficiency and also get some sense of your aspirations on the digital side.

    這和我之前問過的問題一樣。您在消費者中擁有一流的數字存款成本,是業內最低的,但並未轉化為整個公司。因此,我只是試圖將您出色的數字使用與更高的效率聯繫起來,並了解您在數字方面的願望。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So Mike, the last question, sort of that question, which is the consumer side doesn't get the advantage until the -- you get the some rate structure on the short end, especially. And so all that investment, though, it'd be like we're having the same conversation we had in '16 before rates rose or when that's going to pay off and then exploded and paid off, and we expect it to happen again as the economy normalizes and we are taking good advantage, as you well know, prior to the pandemic.

    所以邁克,最後一個問題,就是那個問題,消費者方面沒有獲得優勢,直到你得到一些短期利率結構,特別是。然而,所有這些投資,就像我們在 16 年利率上升之前進行的對話一樣,或者當這將得到回報,然後爆炸並得到回報時,我們預計它會再次發生,因為眾所周知,在大流行之前,經濟恢復正常,我們正在充分利用這一優勢。

  • And so let me back up. On digital products and usage, the key strategies we've been engaged on is beyond consumer and Paul hit some of the wealth management pieces. You can see them. And so when we're talking about the digital things, we're actually showing by each segment. So the growth in the wealth management side both for external usage, i.e., customers and internal, is extremely important. And using Erica internally as a method of artificial intelligence-based natural language processing stuff helps make people more efficient in the commercial segment of wealth management.

    所以讓我備份。在數字產品和使用方面,我們一直從事的關鍵策略超出了消費者範圍,Paul 觸及了一些財富管理領域。你可以看到他們。因此,當我們談論數字事物時,我們實際上是按每個細分市場展示的。因此,財富管理方面的增長對於外部使用,即客戶和內部,都非常重要。並且在內部使用 Erica 作為一種基於人工智能的自然語言處理方法有助於提高人們在財富管理的商業領域的效率。

  • So we don't have -- our aspiration is just to follow and push the clients at the same time, and that always has a benefit. And that's why over the last decade, we're down 40,000 people in the retail network, to give you a sense. And where it goes, we have some internal plans, we have an idea. But we are sort of -- we don't go out and say that because, frankly, it happens piece by piece by piece. And honestly, a 2,500 FTE reduction in the quarter is in part due to the consumer efficiencies kicking back in once they got through PPP processing and things like that.

    所以我們沒有——我們的願望只是同時跟隨和推動客戶,這總是有好處的。這就是為什麼在過去十年中,我們在零售網絡中減少了 40,000 人,給你一個感覺。至於它去哪裡,我們有一些內部計劃,我們有一個想法。但我們有點——我們不會說出來,因為坦率地說,它一點一點地發生。老實說,本季度 FTE 減少了 2,500 人,部分原因是消費者的效率在他們通過 PPP 處理和類似的事情后恢復了。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • And that reduction in headcount, you ought to also factor in the increase in headcount in the front office. So we're getting a reduction overall if you go back prepandemic or if you look at this quarter. But at the same time, you're seeing a mix shift. We're adding more people out there talking to customers across the platform, and we have less people in support, in the back office.

    員工人數的減少,你也應該考慮到前台員工人數的增加。因此,如果您回到大流行前或查看本季度,我們總體上會有所減少。但與此同時,您會看到混合轉變。我們正在增加更多的人在平台上與客戶交談,我們在後台支持的人更少。

  • Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

    Michael Lawrence Mayo - MD, Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research & Senior bank Analyst

  • Okay. Just one follow-up on that aspirational question. When you strip out and you don't normalize everything, rates and everything else you want to do, how much more do you think you can lower unit cost over the next several years? And what would be the main technology driver for that?

    好的。只是對這個有抱負的問題的一個後續行動。當你剝離並且你不規範所有你想做的事情、費率和其他事情時,你認為在接下來的幾年裡你可以降低多少單位成本?什麼是主要的技術驅動力?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • The -- there are basically 3 ways. One -- but it's all going to show up in headcount. And so we expect -- the consumer cost of deposits has gone from 350 basis points probably 10, 12 years ago to 120. And so we'd expect to keep driving that down, and that's going to be driven by everything we just talked about.

    - 基本上有3種方式。一個——但這一切都會體現在員工人數中。所以我們預計——存款的消費者成本可能從 10 年、12 年前的 350 個基點上升到 120 個基點。所以我們預計會繼續降低這一點,這將受到我們剛才談到的一切的推動.

  • When you get to revenue-related compensation of wealth management business, that's up $0.5 billion from this quarter in '19 probably or something like that. And that's a good thing because we make money. But that will be more driven by its production capabilities and things like that.

    當您獲得與財富管理業務收入相關的薪酬時,這可能比 19 年的本季度或類似情況增加了 5 億美元。這是一件好事,因為我們賺錢。但這將更多地受到其生產能力之類的推動。

  • So there's basically buildings and how many do you need and how many people -- that's driven by how many people and how much you pay our teammates who are talented to drive the business, that's driven by how many people. And we just had a -- we have been working our way down in headcount, and it then froze because of all the work we had to do around the pandemic-related programs. But now it's dropped by 1% in the quarter, and that's where it pays back.

    所以基本上有建築物,你需要多少,有多少人——這取決於有多少人,你付給我們有能力推動業務的隊友多少錢,這取決於有多少人。而且我們剛剛有一個 - 我們一直在努力減少員工人數,然後由於我們必須圍繞與大流行相關的計劃做的所有工作而凍結。但現在它在本季度下降了 1%,這就是它的回報。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Great slide on Slide 5, really love it. I just wanted to dig in on card a little bit. There's been some discussion around how spend is up a lot, as you indicated as well, and how much of that spend is likely to be translating into revolving versus transactor. You're giving us the daily clearly, we can see that here on the slide. But it would be helpful to understand what you're seeing in the guts of the machine. And is -- has revolver started to pick up? Or does this loan growth that you show on the slide reflect just the increased spend and transactor paydown rates are similar to what they've been over the past few months?

    幻燈片 5 上的幻燈片很棒,真的很喜歡。我只是想深入了解一下卡片。正如您所指出的那樣,關於支出如何大幅增加以及其中有多少可能轉化為循環與交易者,已經進行了一些討論。您正在清楚地向我們提供每日信息,我們可以在幻燈片上看到這一點。但了解您在機器內部看到的內容會很有幫助。而且是——左輪手槍開始回升了嗎?還是您在幻燈片上顯示的貸款增長僅反映了支出的增加和交易商還款率與過去幾個月的情況相似?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So the revolver piece is starting to move forward, but it is down. Obviously, significantly prepandemic, the transactor piece is higher. You want people to use the card to get revenue, and you saw that in the fee line to get revenue -- from the usage, you can also get revenue from the loans. The loans are obviously the better part of the equation.

    所以左輪手槍開始向前移動,但它是向下的。顯然,在大流行之前,交易者的份額更高。您希望人們使用卡來獲得收入,並且您在費用行中看到了獲得收入——從使用中,您還可以從貸款中獲得收入。貸款顯然是等式中較好的部分。

  • But Betsy, you have to realize, we have about, round numbers, the same number of cards outstanding. There's $20-odd billion less balances, which people didn't get any different. They just have more cash. And so they paid off their credit cards, which is a completely responsible thing for them to do. And when they can get out and spend more money, which is starting to happen, I think you'll see them use these lines, short-term purchases.

    但是Betsy,你必須意識到,我們有大約,整數,相同數量的未處理卡片。餘額減少了 20 多億美元,人們對此並沒有什麼不同。他們只是有更多的現金。所以他們還清了信用卡,這對他們來說是完全負責任的事情。當他們可以出去花更多的錢時,這開始發生了,我想你會看到他們使用這些線,短期購買。

  • So I don't think -- yes, the pay rate's up, but I don't think it's a fundamental difference of behavior. It's just the opportunity to use the cards for activity has been limited coming into this quarter when you finally saw things open.

    所以我不認為 - 是的,工資率上升了,但我不認為這是行為的根本差異。進入本季度,當您終於看到事情開放時,使用卡片進行活動的機會有限。

  • So we'll see where it goes, but it's -- the good news is it's going in different direction. It had been leading up an entry point about Slide 5. And the good news is the people are high credit quality. So that means that the net -- the risk-adjusted margin, i.e., the margin from cards minus the charge-offs, is actually closer than what people think because the card charge-offs would drop by $300 million, $400 million a quarter.

    所以我們會看到它的去向,但它是——好消息是它正朝著不同的方向發展。它一直在引導關於幻燈片 5 的切入點。好消息是人們的信用質量很高。所以這意味著淨額——風險調整後的利潤率,即信用卡的利潤減去沖銷,實際上比人們想像的要接近,因為信用卡沖銷將減少 3 億美元,每季度 4 億美元。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Okay. Brian, that's -- yes. No. That's great. That leads into the follow-up, which is relating to your reserve ratio on card. I think the way we're calculating it is around 8.5% or 8.8% at this stage. And give us a sense as to how you're thinking about that trajectory here. Given that the environment has been improving, what should we expect on reserves going forward?

    好的。布賴恩,那是——是的。不,那太好了。這導致了後續,這與您的卡上的準備金率有關。我認為現階段我們計算它的方式約為 8.5% 或 8.8%。並讓我們了解您如何考慮這裡的軌跡。鑑於環境一直在改善,我們對未來的儲備有何期待?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Go ahead, Paul.

    來吧,保羅。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Well, I'll answer the question this way. If you go to CECL day 1, I think it was 6 point something, right? 6.98. So that gives you a sense of a different environment with a different sort of economic outlook at that moment. Obviously, as we grow loans, card loans, which we're talking about doing, they are going to eat into some of that excess reserves. But I think between whatever you want to model on loan growth and whatever you want to think about in terms of just getting back to CECL day 1, you could kind of come up with whatever -- with an answer.

    好吧,我會這樣回答這個問題。如果你去 CECL 第 1 天,我想應該是 6 點吧? 6.98。因此,這讓您對當時具有不同經濟前景的不同環境有一種感覺。顯然,隨著我們正在談論的貸款,信用卡貸款的增加,它們將吞噬一些超額準備金。但我認為,在您想為貸款增長建模的任何內容和您想回到 CECL 第一天的任何內容之間,您都可以想出任何答案——答案。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • Right. And just could you even be below CECL day 1 because the environment is so good right now?

    對。你甚至可以低於 CECL 第 1 天,因為現在環境很好嗎?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • You could easily be below CECL day 1. I mean it -- as you know, it just depends at the moment you're setting your reserve what your mix is, what are your card balances and what is your view of the future. And our view of the future is a more benign environment than it was in CECL day 1, then by definition, you'd end up with lower reserves.

    您可能很容易低於 CECL 第 1 天。我的意思是 - 如您所知,這僅取決於您設置儲備的那一刻,您的組合是什麼,您的卡餘額是多少以及您對未來的看法是什麼。我們對未來的看法是一個比 CECL 第 1 天更溫和的環境,然後根據定義,你最終會得到較低的儲備。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • And that's the point of Page 6, Betsy, really goes to your question on card specifics.

    這就是第 6 頁的重點,Betsy,真正解決了你關於卡片細節的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

  • Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

    Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

  • So Paul, it was certainly encouraging to hear that there's still a path to the $1 billion improvement in the NII exit rate that you cited just given some of the long-end pressure since you gave that guidance. I was hoping you could just help us unpack some of the component pieces given it's a meaningful step-up versus what we saw in the most recent quarter. And maybe just thinking about it in 3 buckets: loan growth, liquidity deployment and premium am being the third. Assuming no change in the forward, like how can we underwrite that path to the $1 billion increase off the current base?

    所以,保羅,聽到你提到的 NII 退出率仍有 10 億美元的改善途徑,這當然令人鼓舞,因為你給出了指導意見後的一些長期壓力。我希望你能幫助我們解開一些組件,因為與我們在最近一個季度看到的相比,這是一個有意義的進步。也許只是從三個方面考慮:貸款增長、流動性部署和溢價是第三個。假設遠期沒有變化,比如我們如何保證從當前基礎上增加 10 億美元?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • So I would say that it's about half loan growth -- well, first, back out, we have an extra day, okay? Back that out. And as we sit here today, it will be roughly half loan growth and half amort reduction -- premium amort reduction. Having said that, it's a challenge -- given that the fact that rates have fallen, it's a challenge. It's hard to get there. And so we've got -- we've always had the opportunity to deploy a little more liquidity as we think about this going forward.

    所以我會說這大約是貸款增長的一半——嗯,首先,退出,我們有額外的一天,好嗎?背出來。當我們今天坐在這裡時,大約是一半的貸款增長和一半的攤銷減少——保費攤銷減少。話雖如此,這是一個挑戰——鑑於利率已經下降,這是一個挑戰。很難到達那裡。所以我們有 - 我們一直有機會部署更多的流動性,因為我們考慮到這一點。

  • Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

    Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

  • Understood. At least the premium am ultimately will come. It's just a question of timing there. So -- but I understand that, that could at least impact where it shakes out by the end of the year.

    明白了。至少溢價 am 最終會到來。這只是那裡的時間問題。所以 - 但我明白,這至少會影響它在年底前的震盪。

  • And the other thing I wanted to get a better sense of, Paul, is just on the capital comments that you made earlier. You noted that you're at 11.5%, 200 bps above your minimum. Just curious if you can give us some sense as to where you plan on operating, on a steady-state basis, how much cushion you want to retain. And just given the strength of your excess capital position, how should we be thinking about the pace or cadence of the buyback for the next 4 quarters?

    保羅,我想更好地理解的另一件事就是你之前發表的大寫評論。你注意到你的利率是 11.5%,比你的最低值高 200 個基點。只是好奇您是否可以讓我們了解您計劃在哪裡運營,在穩定狀態下,您想要保留多少緩衝。鑑於您的過剩資本頭寸,我們應該如何考慮未來 4 個季度回購的步伐或節奏?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, obviously, we're allowed to do it. So that's a change and at a level that allows us to move capital off the balance sheet so that it's constrained by the average of earnings, which was through this quarter. So it will move up.

    好吧,顯然,我們被允許這樣做。所以這是一個變化,並且在一定程度上允許我們將資本從資產負債表中轉移出來,這樣它就會受到本季度平均收益的限制。所以它會向上移動。

  • But I think we try to operate 50 basis points above the minimum -- as a target because there's volatility. So our SLR of 5.9 has got 90 basis points of cushion in it. And we want to operate 50 basis points there, the 9.5 is 10, et cetera. So you should expect us not immediately to be moving towards that over time. And then as this goes through the periods, the question will be what's the ultimate decent level that we have to maintain in the future and things like that.

    但我認為我們試圖將高於最低點的 50 個基點作為目標,因為存在波動性。所以我們 5.9 的 SLR 有 90 個基點的緩衝。我們想在那裡操作 50 個基點,9.5 是 10,等等。因此,您應該期望我們不會隨著時間的推移立即朝著這一目標邁進。然後隨著時間的推移,問題將是我們在未來必須保持的最終體面水平以及類似的事情。

  • So -- but we can move at pace now, and we couldn't before because we're -- it was constrained to your dividends plus your buybacks not only to your earnings. And we were a company that went into this crisis with a lot more excess capital. And we're a company that came out this crisis with a lot more excess capital. And there were 3 CCAR exams during this crisis that we had the lowest losses and stayed below the 250 SCB. So off we go. But that constraint, you got to go the lowest constraint and add 50 basis points, and you should expect us to stay above that. But right now, that's a lot of excess cash.

    所以——但我們現在可以步調一致,而我們以前不能,因為我們是——它受限於你的股息和你的回購,而不僅僅是你的收益。我們是一家陷入這場危機的公司,擁有更多的過剩資本。我們是一家在這場危機中走出危機的公司,擁有更多的過剩資本。在這場危機中,有 3 次 CCAR 考試我們損失最低,並保持在 250 SCB 以下。所以我們走吧。但是那個約束,你必須達到最低約束並增加 50 個基點,你應該期望我們保持在這個之上。但現在,這是很多多餘的現金。

  • Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

    Steven Joseph Chubak - Director of Equity Research

  • If I could just squeeze in one more. Sorry, I just got a bunch of questions on the Global Markets loan growth, which was a pretty eye-popping number. I was hoping you can just unpack the opportunity that you're seeing within that segment and whether there's further runway for continued growth just given how significant of an uptick we saw in the most recent quarter.

    如果我能再擠一個。抱歉,我剛收到一堆關於全球市場貸款增長的問題,這是一個令人瞠目結舌的數字。我希望您能夠打開您在該細分市場中看到的機會,以及考慮到我們在最近一個季度看到的顯著增長,是否還有進一步的增長空間。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes. Sure. So we did -- that activity -- the loan growth was led by Global Markets, but we did see it across the platform, including middle market and other areas.

    是的。當然。所以我們做了——這項活動——貸款增長是由全球市場領導的,但我們確實在整個平台上看到了它,包括中間市場和其他領域。

  • In Global Markets, we just look for opportunities to use some of our liquidity in a more constructive way than maybe buying more securities. And it was across a number of different types of opportunities in clients. But about, I would say, $6 billion-ish of it went into our decision to hold some CLOs in loan form.

    在全球市場,我們只是尋找機會以更有建設性的方式使用我們的一些流動性,而不是購買更多證券。它涉及客戶中許多不同類型的機會。但是,我想說,其中大約 60 億美元用於我們決定以貸款形式持有一些 CLO。

  • Now we concentrated those holdings in AAA and AA tranches instead of distributing the securities to investors. And we think that activity is very consistent with our plans to allocate more balance sheet to customers in Global Markets. Having said all that, I know people will concentrate on CLO exposure. Our CLO exposure is still extremely low relative to our peers.

    現在我們將這些資產集中在 AAA 和 AA 部分,而不是將證券分配給投資者。我們認為這一活動與我們為全球市場客戶分配更多資產負債表的計劃非常一致。說了這麼多,我知道人們會專注於 CLO 的曝光。與同行相比,我們的 CLO 敞口仍然極低。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題是來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • If I could just go further on the commercial loan topics. As you start to see a little bit better demand aside from PPP across -- whether it's corporate, which you just talked about, commercial, small business, what's your just sense from the customer base of where it's potentially coming back the most and where the most holdbacks are because customers still have tons of excess liquidity to get through before they borrow?

    如果我能在商業貸款主題上走得更遠。當你開始看到除了 PPP 之外的更好的需求——無論是你剛才談到的企業、商業、小型企業,你從客戶群中的什麼是最有可能回歸的地方以及在哪裡?大多數阻礙是因為客戶在藉款之前仍有大量過剩流動性需要通過?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Well, look, if you look at Global Banking this quarter, middle market was driven by food products, commercial services and suppliers and diversified wholesalers. Obviously, you've still got some industries that are affected by the pandemic and so they really haven't started to recover yet.

    好吧,看看本季度的全球銀行業,中間市場是由食品、商業服務和供應商以及多元化的批發商推動的。顯然,仍有一些行業受到大流行的影響,因此它們還沒有真正開始復蘇。

  • If you look at our commercial-committed exposures, by the way, they grew $30 billion quarter-over-quarter. We're now above the $1 trillion prepandemic level. So people are getting ready to borrow more. As Brian noted, the revolver utilization is still at historic lows, but we're going to -- we would expect that to move up as the economy improves.

    順便說一下,如果你看看我們的商業承諾風險敞口,它們環比增長了 300 億美元。我們現在已經超過了 1 萬億美元的大流行前水平。所以人們正準備借更多錢。正如布賴恩所指出的,左輪手槍的利用率仍處於歷史低位,但我們將——我們預計隨著經濟的改善,這種情況會上升。

  • And then in Global Markets, as I mentioned, there were lots of opportunities in mortgage warehouse lending, subscription facilities, asset-backed securitizations. There's lots of opportunities there to put more balance sheet to work.

    然後在全球市場,正如我所提到的,抵押倉庫貸款、訂閱設施、資產支持證券化有很多機會。那裡有很多機會讓更多的資產負債表發揮作用。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • And as a follow-up on that point about the utility being low but customers are readying themselves, I think as an industry, we've been waiting for that for a couple of quarters now. What's that trigger point where you think that we'll start to see or it'll cause the line usage to actually start moving? And it's been flat for now a good few quarters as we ready for it.

    作為關於效用低但客戶正在準備好這一點的後續行動,我認為作為一個行業,我們已經等待了幾個季度。您認為我們將開始看到的觸發點是什麼,或者它會導致線路使用實際開始移動?在我們準備好之前,它現在已經有好幾個季度了。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • I think it's going to be inventory build across various industries.

    我認為這將是跨各個行業的庫存建設。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • And you're seeing trade finance kick up.

    你會看到貿易融資開始興起。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. The trade finance flows and the trade flows that we have, have been kicking up and kicking up, which means at some point, the people building inventories to meet the customer demand as we talked to.

    是的。貿易融資流量和我們擁有的貿易流量一直在增加,這意味著在某些時候,人們建立庫存以滿足我們與之交談的客戶需求。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Some of that inventory building has been hampered by trucking and ocean liner and just getting logistics. So I think working out some kinks there, you could start to see it.

    一些庫存建設受到卡車運輸和遠洋班輪以及剛剛獲得物流的阻礙。所以我認為在那裡解決一些問題,你可以開始看到它。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • And do you have any line of sight when you talk to your customers about any easing up of those supply chain constraints there as we anticipate that?

    當您與您的客戶談論如何緩解我們預期的供應鏈限制時,您是否有任何視線?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Getting better. But still, I've learned a lot more about ports than I ever thought I'd learned from our customers. It's getting better, but it's going to take a while. I mean everybody talks about the chip that's well talked about, well-known, but you're talking about basics. And so it's getting better, but it really comes down to the operations of ports efficiently and the impact of virus on employees in those ports and having people to work and unload the ships and things like that.

    越來越好。但是,我從客戶那裡學到的關於端口的知識比我想像的要多得多。情況正在好轉,但需要一段時間。我的意思是每個人都在談論廣為人知的芯片,但您談論的是基礎知識。所以情況越來越好,但這實際上歸結為港口的有效運營以及病毒對這些港口員工的影響,以及讓人們工作和卸船之類的事情。

  • So it's a pretty drilled out sort of analysis they have. But the reality is it's still constraining, but it's getting incrementally better, but it will take another 6 months to kind of -- in most sites, they're saying, hey, at the end of the year, that will be better and we'll see that.

    所以這是他們進行的非常深入的分析。但現實情況是它仍然受到限制,但它正在逐漸好轉,但還需要 6 個月的時間——在大多數網站上,他們說,嘿,到年底,情況會更好,我們會看到的。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • As you think about loan growth and you start modeling it, just remember it with revolver utilization is down close to 10%, that's $45 billion of...

    當您考慮貸款增長並開始對其進行建模時,請記住,左輪手槍利用率下降了近 10%,即 450 億美元...

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • From last year.

    從去年開始。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes. That's $45 billion of loans just for us.

    是的。僅對我們來說,這就是 450 億美元的貸款。

  • Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Kenneth Michael Usdin - MD and Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Right. Right. That's the opportunity set, is just how quickly could that be a loaded spring, right?

    對。對。這就是機會集,這就是一個加載彈簧的速度有多快,對嗎?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

  • Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

    Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

  • Paul, can you share with us -- when I look at your average earning balance sheet in your supplement and you give us the yield of the average earning assets and I think it declined to 179 basis points, can you share with us, what's the difference between what you're reporting and what you're putting on each quarter of new earning assets? Is there a 20 basis point difference, 10 basis points difference? And if we assume rates don't change, when does that gap disappear because what you're putting on is equal to what you're actually earning?

    保羅,你能和我們分享一下——當我在你的補充中查看你的平均收入資產負債表,你給我們平均收入資產的收益率,我認為它下降到了 179 個基點,你能和我們分享一下嗎?您報告的內容與您在每個季度的新盈利資產中投入的內容之間的差異?有20個基點差,10個基點差嗎?如果我們假設利率不變,那麼這個差距什麼時候會消失,因為你投入的收入等於你實際賺的錢?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes. Well, again, I mean I'll talk about when we take our liquidity, which, again, we've got a lot of excess liquidity, and we deploy that into a security, right? We're picking up -- well, in the second quarter, we picked up on a blended basis between mortgages and treasuries, which were roughly 50-50 purchases. We picked up about 170 basis points relative to cash.

    是的。好吧,再說一次,我的意思是我會談談我們什麼時候獲得流動性,再說一次,我們有很多過剩的流動性,我們將其部署到證券中,對嗎?我們正在回升——嗯,在第二季度,我們在抵押貸款和國債之間的混合基礎上有所回升,大約是 50-50 次購買。相對於現金,我們上漲了約 170 個基點。

  • But when you look at security that's rolling off and being replaced, they're rolling off at sort of $250 million and they're being replaced with $210 million. Now you could do the same math -- I did it with securities. You could do the same math with a loan. Pick your loan category, whether it's a card or commercial loan or -- it's going to just depend on the yield.

    但是,當您查看正在滾動和被替換的安全性時,它們正在以大約 2.5 億美元的速度滾動,並且被替換為 2.1 億美元。現在你可以做同樣的數學——我用證券做的。你可以用貸款做同樣的計算。選擇您的貸款類別,無論是卡貸款還是商業貸款,或者——這將僅取決於收益率。

  • Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

    Gerard Sean Cassidy - MD, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy & Large Cap Bank Analyst

  • Very good. And coming back, I think you pointed out that the asset sensitivity of the balance sheet is still intact. 100 basis point parallel shift is -- leads to about an $8 billion increase in net interest revenue. Can you share with us what weighs more heavily on that number? Is it the short end of the curve going up, that 70% of that increase comes from the short end going up versus the long end?

    很好。回來,我想你指出資產負債表的資產敏感性仍然完好無損。 100 個基點的平行變化是——導致淨利息收入增加約 80 億美元。你能和我們分享一下這個數字更重要的是什麼?是曲線的短端上升嗎,70% 的增長來自短端相對於長端的上升?

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Correct. It's approximately 70% for the short end.

    正確的。短期約為 70%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we'll go to Charles Peabody with Portales.

    我們將和 Portales 一起去 Charles Peabody。

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • I wanted to focus on your card operations for 2 reasons: one, it's the area where there seems to be some visibility to loan growth; and two, because it I think generates about 20% of your bottom line, so it's a significant mover.

    我想專注於您的信用卡業務有兩個原因:第一,這是貸款增長似乎有一些可見性的領域;第二,因為我認為它會產生大約 20% 的利潤,所以它是一個重要的推動者。

  • If I'm using your line of business data correctly, cards as a line of business are on pace to generate somewhere between $1.8 billion a quarter. So somewhere between -- well, close to $8 billion a year. Am I right in that assumption?

    如果我正確地使用了您的業務線數據,卡片作為一項業務線有望每季度產生 18 億美元之間的收入。所以介於兩者之間 - 嗯,每年接近 80 億美元。我的假設是對的嗎?

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • If you're talking about interest income, yes, if you look at this up on Page 8, the $1.876 billion is the card interest income for the second quarter of '21. But that's...

    如果您談論的是利息收入,是的,如果您在第 8 頁上看一下,18.76 億美元是 21 年第二季度的信用卡利息收入。但那是...

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • Well, I was using your -- the net income.

    好吧,我用的是你的——淨收入。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, the net income -- we don't have a card segment. Yes. We don't report a card segment because it goes there, it goes in the fee line, it goes in -- yes, interest expenses.

    好吧,淨收入——我們沒有卡部分。是的。我們不報告卡部分,因為它進入了那裡,進入了費用線,進入了——是的,利息費用。

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • But if you look at your line of business reporting, you do have a consumer lending versus deposit. And the consumer lending is primarily cards, if I understand it correctly.

    但是,如果您查看您的業務報告,您確實有消費貸款與存款。如果我理解正確的話,消費貸款主要是卡片。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • No. It's got mortgage loans and auto loans and it's all lending products. So let's -- if you got a fifth question, we can lead it.

    不,它有抵押貸款和汽車貸款,都是貸款產品。所以讓我們——如果你有第五個問題,我們可以領導它。

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • Okay. The question is, if I assume 2019 kind of data in terms of margins, in terms of gross yield, and I assume high single-digit growth in loans in 2022, I'm -- because of the substantial reserve release this year versus what probably will be less next year, I see a fairly substantial decline in your card business as a line of business, as a profit business. And so I'm trying to get a sense, am I right that there's a delay -- even if balances pick up, there's a delay to the improved profitability of that product line.

    好的。問題是,如果我假設 2019 年的數據以利潤率、毛收益率計,並且我假設 2022 年貸款的高個位數增長,我 - 因為今年的大量儲備釋放與什麼相比明年可能會更少,我看到您的卡業務作為一項業務,作為一項利潤業務有相當大的下降。因此,我試圖弄明白,延遲是否正確 - 即使餘額增加,該產品線的盈利能力提高也會延遲。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Because there's less reserve. Last year, it was hurt by reserve build. This year, it's benefit by reserve releases. In the next year, we'll see that benefit comes out. That's the company's...

    因為儲備少。去年,它受到儲備建設的傷害。今年,它受益於儲備釋放。明年,我們將看到這種好處出現。那是公司的...

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • And not only that, but you have to reserve as you're putting on loans, and so you get less benefit day 1 versus day 100.

    不僅如此,您還必須在放貸時進行儲備,因此與第 100 天相比,您在第 1 天獲得的收益會更少。

  • Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

    Paul M. Donofrio - CFO

  • Yes. But remember, we've got -- I think it was -- somebody asked an earlier question. We're reserved on loans now 200 basis points higher than where we were CECL day 1. So as loans grow, you can eat into that reserve.

    是的。但請記住,我們有——我認為是——有人問過一個較早的問題。我們現在的貸款準備金比 CECL 第 1 天高出 200 個基點。因此,隨著貸款的增長,您可以使用該準備金。

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • Right. And I estimated, you probably have about $1 billion to $1.5 billion of excess reserves in your cards, if you go back to day 1 CECL. And so you're going to bleed some of that back over the second half of this year, which means you have maybe $0.5 billion to $1 billion next year.

    對。我估計,如果你回到 CECL 的第一天,你的卡中可能有大約 10 億到 15 億美元的超額準備金。因此,您將在今年下半年收回部分資金,這意味著您明年可能擁有 5 億至 10 億美元。

  • E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

    E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

  • Charlie, this is Lee. So why don't we take this off-line, and you and I can go through this afterwards? I see where you're headed, but...

    查理,這是李。那麼我們為什麼不讓這個離線,然後你和我可以經歷這個呢?我知道你要去哪裡,但是...

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • Okay. Yes. I'll share my model with you, Lee, because I think it's an important hole that has to be filled next year.

    好的。是的。我會和你分享我的模型,Lee,因為我認為這是一個重要的漏洞,必須在明年填補。

  • E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

    E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

  • Yes. What I'd also just add, though, just while everybody is on the line is just remember, our charge-offs are running significantly lower in addition to -- forget about all the reserving in the now.

    是的。不過,我還要補充一點,就在每個人都在線時,請記住,我們的沖銷率大大降低,此外——忘記現在的所有預留。

  • Charles Peabody

    Charles Peabody

  • Yes. Absolutely, absolutely.

    是的。絕對,絕對。

  • E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

    E. Lee McEntire - Head of IR

  • Yes. Yes. Okay. But I'll get with you after this call.

    是的。是的。好的。但是我會在這個電話之後和你在一起。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And it appears we have no further questions. I'll return the floor to Brian Moynihan for closing remarks.

    看來我們沒有進一步的問題了。我將請布賴恩·莫伊尼漢 (Brian Moynihan) 發言結束髮言。

  • Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brian Thomas Moynihan - Chairman, CEO & President

  • So thank you all for joining us.

    所以感謝大家加入我們。

  • Once again, in the quarter, our customers are seeing good growth opportunities in a recovering economy. Deposits continue to grow, $80 billion in the quarter; loan balances stabilized and grew on a period-end basis for the quarter, even overcoming the PPP runoff; asset quality is at 25-year percentage loss lows, not just dollar amount.

    在本季度,我們的客戶再次看到經濟復甦的良好增長機會。存款繼續增長,本季度達到 800 億美元;本季度期末貸款餘額穩定並增長,甚至超過了 PPP 徑流;資產質量處於 25 年以來的最低損失百分比,而不僅僅是金額。

  • The solid earnings continued this quarter. We -- the important thing is we're seeing increased activity by our customer base, whether it's sales of all the different products, whether it's the reopening of the branches and more appointments that lead to sales, whether it's our face-to-face meetings or commercial businesses. So that holds us in good stead and helps answer the question about how NII grows in the second half of the year.

    本季度繼續保持穩健的收益。我們 - 重要的是我們看到客戶群的活動增加,無論是所有不同產品的銷售,是否是分支機構的重新開放和更多的預約導致銷售,是否是我們的面對面會議或商業業務。因此,這使我們處於有利地位,並有助於回答有關 NII 在下半年如何增長的問題。

  • And so -- and then on top of all that, this quarter is the first quarter in many that we've been able to -- in forever that we've been able to go back and actually use excess capital based on our earnings power and our Board's discretion. So you should expect us to get back in the share buyback game.

    所以——最重要的是,本季度是我們能夠做到的許多季度中的第一季度——我們永遠能夠回去並根據我們的盈利能力實際使用多餘的資本以及我們董事會的自由裁量權。因此,您應該期望我們重新參與股票回購遊戲。

  • So thank you and we will return that capital to you. And we look forward to talking next quarter.

    所以謝謝你,我們會把這筆資金還給你。我們期待著下個季度的談話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We'll conclude today's program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    我們將結束今天的節目。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。