AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) 2012 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Okay.

好的。

Well hello, everyone.

大家好。

Welcome to our first quarter results' call.

歡迎來到我們的第一季度業績電話會議。

This is David Brennan.

這是大衛·布倫南。

Simon Lowth is also here with me and he's going to run you through the financial results in just a moment.

Simon Lowth 也和我在一起，他將在短時間內向您介紹財務結果。

Before I ask him to do that, I wanted to make a few comments about the announcement about my decision to retire as Chief Executive Officer, which we announced this morning.

在我要求他這樣做之前，我想就我們今天上午宣布的關於我辭去首席執行官職務的決定發表一些評論。

After more than six years in one of the best jobs in the industry, and a challenging job at that, I think the time is right now to stand aside and to pass the reins to a new leader.

在從事業內最好的工作之一和一項具有挑戰性的工作六年多之後，我認為現在是時候站到一邊，將控制權交給新的領導者了。

I think the Board made a good decision in appointing Simon as Interim Chief Executive, as of June 1, and I'll hand over my responsibilities to Simon on that date as well.

我認為董事會在 6 月 1 日任命 Simon 為臨時首席執行官是一個很好的決定，我也將在該日期將我的職責移交給 Simon。

Putting Simon in place as Interim CEO has my full support.

我全力支持西蒙擔任臨時首席執行官。

I think the Board believes, and we discussed yesterday, that vesting authority in the team that's accountable for the day-to-day running of the business into the future is really the best way to ensure both continuity and clear leadership during the transition period.

我認為董事會相信，並且我們昨天討論過，將權力授予負責未來日常業務運營的團隊確實是確保過渡期間連續性和清晰領導的最佳方式。

So to me, that makes perfect sense.

所以對我來說，這是完全有道理的。

I believe also the Company has an exceptionally strong executive team in place; something that I'm actually personally very proud of.

我相信公司還擁有一支非常強大的執行團隊；實際上，我個人為此感到非常自豪。

And I believe, under Simon's directorship, the team will continue to provide strong collective leadership while the Board carries out a thorough search, both internally and externally for my successor.

我相信，在 Simon 的領導下，團隊將繼續發揮強大的集體領導作用，同時董事會將在內部和外部全面尋找我的繼任者。

The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing pressures, the likes of which I've not witnessed in my 36 plus years in the industry.

製藥行業正在承受壓力，這是我在該行業工作 36 多年以來從未見過的壓力。

And, despite that, I really do remain very confident that AstraZeneca has the capabilities, the courage, the determination to be successful in the future.

而且，儘管如此，我仍然非常相信阿斯利康有能力、勇氣和決心在未來取得成功。

If we maintain our focus on meeting the needs of patients around the world, and on delivering on unmet medical needs with our medicines, I believe that we can, and will, continue to deliver attractive and sustained returns for our shareholders.

如果我們繼續專注於滿足世界各地患者的需求，並用我們的藥物滿足未滿足的醫療需求，我相信我們能夠而且將會繼續為我們的股東帶來有吸引力和持續的回報。

The time for reflection on what has been a long and rewarding career for me with AstraZeneca is going to have to wait until I hand over my responsibilities.

反思我在阿斯利康的漫長而有益的職業生涯的時間將不得不等到我交出我的職責。

For now, up until June 1, my attention will remain 100% focused on delivering on our strategy.

現在，直到 6 月 1 日，我的注意力將 100% 集中在實現我們的戰略上。

But, for the record, I do want to say that I'm proud of what we've achieved over the last six years or so.

但是，鄭重聲明，我確實想說，我為我們在過去六年左右的時間裡取得的成就感到自豪。

We've built some, I think, some of the world's leading products in Nexium and Crestor and Seroquel and Symbicort, and these products have made a really meaningful difference to the lives of patients around the world.

我認為，我們在 Nexium 和 Crestor 以及 Seroquel 和 Symbicort 中構建了一些世界領先的產品，這些產品對世界各地患者的生活產生了真正有意義的影響。

We've established a leading position in emerging markets, and have continued to invest there.

我們已經在新興市場確立了領先地位，並繼續在那裡投資。

We've reshaped research and development, and we've taken some difficult, but necessary decisions, to reduce our cost base, allowing for increased investment where growth opportunities do exist.

我們重塑了研發，並做出了一些艱難但必要的決定，以降低我們的成本基礎，允許在確實存在增長機會的地方增加投資。

And we've also returned considerable value to our shareholders.

我們還為股東帶來了可觀的價值。

And, finally, the other thing I'd point out is that we've led at a sector level too.

最後，我要指出的另一件事是，我們也在行業層面處於領先地位。

For example, we have led the debate on restoring trust in the pharmaceutical industry by introducing bold policies on interactions with healthcare professionals, which have been rolled out globally.

例如，我們通過引入與醫療保健專業人員互動的大膽政策，引領了關於恢復對製藥行業信任的辯論，這些政策已在全球推廣。

It's been a genuine privilege for me to lead the Company over the last six years or so.

在過去六年左右的時間裡領導公司對我來說是一種真正的榮幸。

And I'm looking forward to a new chapter, including spending some more time with my family; something that's really very precious to me.

我期待著翻開新的篇章，包括花更多的時間陪伴家人；對我來說真的非常珍貴的東西。

So, with that, let me just turn my attention to why we are here today, which is to talk about first quarter results, and reflect, I think, what is a very challenging revenue picture for us.

因此，有了這個，讓我把注意力轉移到我們今天為什麼在這裡，這是為了談論第一季度的業績，並反映出，我認為，對我們來說，這是一個非常具有挑戰性的收入圖景。

In the announcement today, we also highlighted that we've strengthened the pipeline, through both our collaborations with Amgen, to co-develop five clinical stage projects in the field of inflammation.

在今天的公告中，我們還強調了通過與安進公司的合作，我們加強了管道，共同開發炎症領域的五個臨床階段項目。

It's a good opportunity to invest in innovative science, wherever it originates.

這是投資創新科學的好機會，無論它起源於何處。

Earlier this week, we announced the agreement to acquire Ardea Biosciences for about $1 billion in net cash, which brings with it a promising project in Phase III development for the chronic treatment of hyperuricaemia in patients with gout.

本週早些時候，我們宣布了以約 10 億美元的淨現金收購 Ardea Biosciences 的協議，這帶來了一個有前途的 III 期開發項目，用於長期治療痛風患者的高尿酸血症。

And lastly, we're very pleased that the CHMP has issued a positive opinion for European Union approval of FORXIGA, which is the brand name for dapagliflozin, our new diabetes medicine, from our collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb.

最後，我們非常高興 CHMP 對歐盟批准 FORXIGA 發表了積極意見，FORXIGA 是我們與百時美施貴寶合作開發的新型糖尿病藥物達格列淨的品牌名稱。

And we look forward to bringing it to the market once it receives final approval from the European Commission.

我們期待在獲得歐盟委員會的最終批准後將其推向市場。

Returning to the numbers for just a minute, the revenue performance, in the context of the anticipated loss of exclusivity on several brands and challenging market conditions, had made for a very difficult start for the year.

暫時回到數字上，在預計將失去幾個品牌的獨家經營權和充滿挑戰的市場條件的背景下，今年的收入表現非常艱難。

We're determined to focus on what we can control.

我們決心專注於我們可以控制的事情。

We're moving with pace to implement the third phase of our restructuring, as you'll have seen by the extent of the restructuring charge that appeared in the quarter.

正如您從本季度出現的重組費用的程度所看到的那樣，我們正在加快實施重組的第三階段。

Delivery on these plans, continued discipline on our operating costs, and the benefits from a lower-than-projected tax rate, is only going to partially mitigate the downward pressure on revenues.

這些計劃的實施、對我們運營成本的持續約束以及低於預期的稅率帶來的好處，只會部分緩解收入的下行壓力。

So, as a result, we've lowered our core EPS target for the full year to the range of $5.85 to $6.15.

因此，我們將全年的核心每股收益目標下調至 5.85 美元至 6.15 美元的範圍。

And, with that, Simon, I'm going to hand over to you and let you cover the details of the quarter, so have at it.

而且，西蒙，我要交給你，讓你介紹這個季度的細節，所以就這樣吧。

Well, thank you, David, very much indeed and good morning to everybody on the call.

好吧，大衛，非常感謝你，早上好。

I'm going to focus on five topics.

我將重點關註五個主題。

I'll start by summarizing the headline numbers.

我將從總結標題數字開始。

Then I'll cover the revenue performance by region and for selected brands.

然後我將按地區和選定品牌介紹收入表現。

Third, I'll turn to the core operating performance, with an emphasis, obviously, on the key drivers of operating profit and margin.

第三，我將轉向核心運營績效，重點顯然是運營利潤和利潤率的關鍵驅動因素。

I'll briefly touch on cash distributions to shareholders, and then, finally, I'll close with our thoughts on guidance for the full year.

我將簡要介紹一下對股東的現金分配，然後，最後，我將結束我們對全年指導的看法。

So on to the headline results.

所以關於標題結果。

Total Company revenue was $7.3 billion in the quarter; an 11% decline in constant currency terms.

本季度公司總收入為 73 億美元；按固定匯率計算下降 11%。

Exchange rates were neutral to first quarter revenue.

匯率對第一季度收入保持中性。

Now, the dominant feature of our revenue profile for the year will be the impact from the loss of exclusivity on several brands.

現在，我們今年收入狀況的主要特徵將是幾個品牌失去獨家經營權的影響。

And, in the first quarter, 8 percentage points of the revenue decline is attributable to generic erosion.

而且，在第一季度，8 個百分點的收入下降歸因於仿製藥侵蝕。

That's chiefly for Nexium in Europe, Arimidex and Merrem globally, and for Seroquel IR in the US.

這主要是歐洲的 Nexium，全球的 Arimidex 和 Merrem，以及美國的 Seroquel IR。

Generics for Seroquel IR launched at the end of March.

Seroquel IR 的仿製藥於 3 月底推出。

In line with our established practice, following a generic launch, a returns reserve was taken against the estimated trade inventories, and this amounted to $223 million.

根據我們的既定做法，在仿製藥上市後，對估計的貿易庫存進行了退貨儲備，總額為 2.23 億美元。

So although the prescription declines won't affect the product until the second quarter, we have already experienced some of the impact in first quarter revenue.

因此，儘管處方下降要到第二季度才會影響產品，但我們已經對第一季度的收入產生了一些影響。

The disposal of Astra Tech accounted for 1.7 percentage points for the revenue decline, as there was $141 million in revenue in the first quarter of last year.

出售 Astra Tech 佔收入下降 1.7 個百分點，因為去年第一季度的收入為 1.41 億美元。

We had a small impact on revenue, just under 1%, from disruption in our supply chain associated with the implementation of a new enterprise resource planning system at our plant in Sweden.

我們在瑞典的工廠實施新的企業資源規劃系統導致供應鏈中斷，對收入的影響很小，略低於 1%。

Though the underlying problems have now been largely resolved, we do anticipate further limitation in the supply chain in some markets in the second quarter, as production responds to ongoing demand for filling back orders and restoring normal inventory levels.

儘管基本問題現已基本解決，但我們確實預計第二季度某些市場的供應鏈將進一步受限，因為生產是為了滿足對補貨訂單和恢復正常庫存水平的持續需求。

Government interventions continue to impact AstraZeneca and, indeed, the biopharma industry generally.

政府乾預繼續影響阿斯利康，事實上，整個生物製藥行業。

We estimate that our revenue impact at around $370 million in the quarter.

我們估計本季度我們的收入影響約為 3.7 億美元。

I'll discuss the regional and brand revenue performances shortly, but let's continue with the headline numbers.

我將很快討論區域和品牌收入表現，但讓我們繼續討論標題數字。

Core operating profit in the quarter was down 18% in constant currency to $3 billion, chiefly on the revenue decline.

本季度核心營業利潤按固定匯率計算下降 18% 至 30 億美元，主要原因是收入下降。

But also core gross margin, in the first quarter last year, benefited from a $131 million gain from settlement of some patent disputes with PDL BioPharma.

但在去年第一季度，核心毛利率也受益於與 PDL BioPharma 的一些專利糾紛的解決帶來的 1.31 億美元收益。

Core earnings per share in the quarter were $1.81, compared with $2.23 last year.

本季度核心每股收益為 1.81 美元，而去年同期為 2.23 美元。

That is a 19% decrease in constant currency terms.

按固定匯率計算，下降了 19%。

Again, a large one off in the prior-year period has had a big impact.

同樣，去年同期的一次大減價也產生了很大的影響。

Last year's first quarter benefited by $0.39, as a result of agreements reached between the UK and US Governments over certain tax matters.

由於英國和美國政府就某些稅收問題達成協議，去年第一季度收益為 0.39 美元。

So if we exclude the one offs in gross margin and tax from the prior period, core EPS in the first quarter would have increased by 2% versus last year.

因此，如果我們排除上一期間毛利率和稅收的一次性調整，第一季度的核心每股收益將比去年同期增長 2%。

Adjustments to core earnings are significantly higher in the first quarter of 2012, due to the restructuring charges.

由於重組費用，2012 年第一季度核心收益的調整幅度顯著增加。

So the 19% decline in core EPS becomes a 39% decrease in reported EPS.

因此，核心每股收益下降 19% 變成報告每股收益下降 39%。

So those are the headlines for the first quarter.

所以這些是第一季度的頭條新聞。

Returning to the first quarter revenue performance, and when I refer to growth rates, they'll be on a constant currency basis.

回到第一季度的收入表現，當我提到增長率時，它們將以固定匯率為基礎。

Revenue in the US was down 12%, compared with the first quarter last year.

與去年第一季度相比，美國的收入下降了 12%。

I already mentioned the Seroquel returns provision.

我已經提到了 Seroquel 退貨條款。

US healthcare reform had a $205 million impact.

美國醫療改革產生了 2.05 億美元的影響。

This includes around $38 million adjustment in the Medicare coverage gap discounts related to 2011 utilization.

這包括與 2011 年利用率相關的 Medicare 覆蓋缺口折扣調整約 3800 萬美元。

We had been accruing, based on estimates, and now that the actual utilization is known we do need to make a catch-up provision.

根據估計，我們一直在累積，現在知道實際利用率後，我們確實需要進行追趕準備金。

Revenue in Western Europe was down 19% in the quarter, largely due to further penetration from generics for Nexium, Arimidex, and Merrem, and downward pressure on prices from government interventions.

本季度西歐的收入下降了 19%，這主要是由於 Nexium、Arimidex 和 Merrem 仿製藥的進一步滲透，以及政府乾預導致的價格下行壓力。

Revenue in Established Rest of World was down 9%.

世界其他地區的收入下降了 9%。

Japan was down 10%.

日本下跌了 10%。

This was on general destocking ahead of the biennial price reductions and the quarterly phasing of shipments to marketing partners for Crestor and Symbicort.

這是在兩年一次的降價和每季度向 Crestor 和 Symbicort 的營銷合作夥伴發貨之前進行的一般去庫存。

The in-market demand for both products was up year on year.

兩種產品的市場需求均同比增長。

Canada's 8% decline is largely due to generic competition for Nexium and Atacand.

加拿大 8% 的下降主要是由於 Nexium 和 Atacand 的仿製藥競爭。

Revenue in Emerging Markets was up 1% in the quarter.

本季度新興市場的收入增長了 1%。

Now, you'll recall, in our full-year results in February, that we expected a weak first quarter in Emerging Markets.

現在，您會記得，在我們 2 月份的全年業績中，我們預計新興市場第一季度表現疲軟。

China was up 13%.

中國上漲了 13%。

Three markets -- Brazil, Turkey and Mexico -- account for more than 40% of the shortfall from our recent double-digit growth rates.

三個市場——巴西、土耳其和墨西哥——占我們近期兩位數增長率的 40% 以上。

Brazil is down 15% on loss of exclusivity for Crestor and Seroquel IR.

巴西因失去 Crestor 和 Seroquel IR 的獨家經營權而下跌 15%。

Turkey is down 18%, chiefly on government price interventions.

土耳其下跌 18%，主要是由於政府的價格干預。

And Mexico is down 25% on some challenging market conditions.

墨西哥在一些具有挑戰性的市場條件下下跌了 25%。

We expect a rebound in Emerging Markets over the remaining three quarters of the year, but whether we'll be able to claw back all of the first quarter shortfall, and achieve double-digit growth for the full year, is hard to call at this point.

我們預計今年剩餘三個季度新興市場將出現反彈，但我們是否能夠彌補第一季度的所有不足，並在全年實現兩位數增長，目前還很難判斷觀點。

But there's no question that it will be a challenge.

但毫無疑問，這將是一個挑戰。

Now this slide provides a snapshot of revenue for our key brands.

現在這張幻燈片提供了我們主要品牌的收入快照。

We grew revenues for the key brands that retain market exclusivity, except for Symbicort, which would have been up were it not for the phasing of shipments in Japan that I've already mentioned.

除了 Symbicort 之外，我們增加了保持市場獨占性的主要品牌的收入，如果不是因為我已經提到的在日本分階段發貨，Symbicort 除外。

Crestor was up 2%, to $1.5 billion.

Crestor 上漲了 2%，達到 15 億美元。

We had double-digit growth for Seroquel XR.

我們的 Seroquel XR 實現了兩位數的增長。

ONGLYZA revenue more than doubled.

ONGLYZA 的收入翻了一番還多。

But, as you can see on the bottom of the slide, loss of exclusivity has taken its toll on Nexium, Seroquel IR, Arimidex, Toprol-XL, and Merrem.

但是，正如您在幻燈片底部看到的那樣，獨占權的喪失對 Nexium、Seroquel IR、Arimidex、Toprol-XL 和 Merrem 造成了影響。

Detailed commentaries on brand performances are in the press release, but I want to provide some additional color on two products; Crestor's performance in the US, following the launch of generic atorvastatin, and an update on the Brilinta launch.

關於品牌表現的詳細評論在新聞稿中，但我想為兩款產品提供一些額外的色彩； Crestor 在仿製藥阿托伐他汀上市後在美國的表現，以及 Brilinta 上市的更新。

First to Crestor.

首先是克雷斯特。

We now have four full months of data on the statin market, post generic Lipitor.

我們現在有四個月的關於他汀類藥物市場的完整數據，繼仿製藥立普妥之後。

And, in its wake, Crestor's performance has remained resilient.

而且，在此之後，Crestor 的表現一直保持彈性。

Crestor total prescriptions in the first quarter 2012 were up 2.1%.

Crestor 2012 年第一季度的總處方量增長了 2.1%。

That's slightly higher than the 1.8% increase in the total statin market.

這略高於他汀類藥物市場總量 1.8% 的增幅。

And this is largely due to stability in the 94% of the Crestor volume that is continued therapy.

這主要是由於持續治療的 94% 的 Crestor 體積穩定。

We thought that there would not be significant switching for patients who were doing well on Crestor, and that has been our experience to date.

我們認為，對於在 Crestor 上表現良好的患者來說，不會有重大轉變，這是我們迄今為止的經驗。

We thought that there would be some churn in the 6% of the volume which is dynamic; that's around 4% from new starts, and around 2% from patient switches from other therapy.

我們認為 6% 的動態量會有一些流失；這大約是 4% 來自新開始，大約 2% 來自患者從其他療法轉換。

So that's a thin sliver at the bottom of the first chart which we've blown up into a larger scale on the next slide.

所以這是第一張圖表底部的細條，我們在下一張幻燈片中將其放大。

Crestor volume of patients who are new to statin therapy is holding up very well, which is the area in red.

剛接受他汀類藥物治療的患者的 Crestor 體積保持得很好，這是紅色區域。

The purple wedge is switches to Crestor.

紫色楔子切換到 Crestor。

And that has eased somewhat, as some of the pool of patients that used to switch to Crestor from simvastatin has moved to atorvastatin.

這已經有所緩解，因為一些過去從辛伐他汀轉向 Crestor 的患者已經轉向阿托伐他汀。

And, as we expected at the outset, there was some increase in patients switching from Crestor to atorvastatin on economic grounds, but there has been some recovery in that trend in recent weeks.

而且，正如我們一開始所預期的那樣，出於經濟原因從 Crestor 轉向阿托伐他汀的患者有所增加，但最近幾週這種趨勢有所恢復。

All in all, the market is evolving in line with our expectations.

總而言之，市場正在按照我們的預期發展。

A quick note on the ex-factory sales in the US.

關於美國出廠銷售的快速說明。

They were flat in the quarter, with the increase in prescriptions offset by a slight decline in realized prices.

他們在本季度持平，處方藥的增加被實際價格的小幅下降所抵消。

And that's attributable to the Medicare discount adjustments that I mentioned earlier.

這歸因於我之前提到的 Medicare 折扣調整。

Turning to Brilinta.

轉向布里林塔。

Sales were $9 million in the quarter.

本季度銷售額為 900 萬美元。

Brilique is really starting to pick up steam in Germany, which is the major market, with the most launch experience.

Brilique 在德國這個主要市場真正開始興起，擁有最多的發布經驗。

Brilique is reported to be on protocol in 79% of target hospitals in March.

據報導，3 月份 79% 的目標醫院都採用了 Brilique。

The latest market research data indicates that, in these hospitals, we're now the leading product for initial therapy for ACS patients, with a market share of 37% of new starts.

最新的市場研究數據表明，在這些醫院中，我們現在是 ACS 患者初始治療的領先產品，佔新開始治療的 37% 的市場份額。

In the US, there were no reported ex-factory sales, as we continued to work down the launch stocking that remains in the channels.

在美國，沒有報告出廠銷售，因為我們繼續減少渠道中剩餘的上市庫存。

But we continue to make steady progress on the leading indicators.

但我們繼續在領先指標方面取得穩步進展。

Brilinta is now on formulary in 68% of the top 400 target hospitals.

Brilinta 現在在排名前 400 位的目標醫院中有 68% 是處方藥。

Protocol access in these institutions is now 20%; and that's up from 14%.

這些機構的協議訪問現在是 20%；這比 14% 有所上升。

Trial rates amongst all interventional cardiologists have increased to 15.4%.

所有介入心髒病專家的試用率已增加到 15.4%。

And, as you can see on the left-hand chart, since we rolled out the full complement of promotional materials in November of last year, understanding of our key differentiating attributes, that's cardiovascular mortality reduction, is starting to gain traction.

而且，正如您在左側圖表中看到的那樣，自從我們在去年 11 月推出了完整的宣傳材料以來，對我們關鍵差異化屬性（即降低心血管死亡率）的理解開始獲得關注。

Our latest market research indicates that 17% of interventional cardiologists rank Brilinta as providing the greatest cardiovascular mortality benefit of any oral anti-platelet agent.

我們最新的市場研究表明，17% 的介入心髒病專家將 Brilinta 列為在所有口服抗血小板藥物中提供最大心血管死亡率益處的藥物。

We know, from our experience in Germany, that, as awareness and belief in this differentiating attribute increases, trial and adoption follow.

根據我們在德國的經驗，我們知道，隨著對這種差異化屬性的認識和信念的增加，試用和採用也會隨之而來。

On the right-hand side of the slide, in the first quarter we have seen an encouraging inflection point in Brilinta total prescriptions from the trend line upon which we exited 2011.

在幻燈片的右側，在第一季度，我們看到 Brilinta 總處方從我們退出 2011 年的趨勢線出現了令人鼓舞的拐點。

Based on the PLATO data, Brilinta has the potential to save thousands of lives, if used instead of the current standard of care.

根據 PLATO 數據，如果使用 Brilinta 代替當前的護理標準，它有可能挽救數千人的生命。

So we would have liked to have seen a faster uptake.

所以我們希望看到更快的採用。

But, because of the complex steps to achieve hospital access, we knew that this would be a slow journey to adoption.

但是，由於實現醫院准入的複雜步驟，我們知道這將是一個緩慢的採用過程。

Having worked with many key institutions in the US, we know it can take up to a year to ensure a new medicine is widely available for use in a particular institution.

通過與美國許多重要機構的合作，我們知道可能需要長達一年的時間才能確保一種新藥在特定機構中廣泛使用。

Process friction is real, but so is our belief that Brilinta's clinical profile will ultimately drive strong usage.

過程摩擦是真實的，但我們相信 Brilinta 的臨床資料最終將推動強大的使用。

You'll have seen yesterday's announcement of our collaboration with The Medicines Company, starting with a co-promotion agreement in the US.

您會在昨天看到我們與 The Medicines Company 合作的公告，首先是在美國達成共同推廣協議。

They're a respected organization, with a strong network in interventional cardiology, and we look forward to their support of our promotional efforts.

他們是一家受人尊敬的組織，在介入心髒病學方面擁有強大的網絡，我們期待他們支持我們的推廣工作。

I'll now turn to the first quarter P&L.

我現在轉向第一季度損益表。

I'll focus here on core margins and profit.

我將在這裡重點關注核心利潤率和利潤。

The press release does, of course, contain the statutory numbers, and a detailed reconciliation to the core measures.

當然，新聞稿確實包含法定數字，以及對核心措施的詳細調整。

And, as with sales, when I refer to growth rates, they'll all be on a constant currency basis.

而且，與銷售額一樣，當我提到增長率時，它們都將以固定貨幣為基礎。

Core gross margin in the quarter was 82% of sales.

本季度核心毛利率為銷售額的 82%。

That is down 190 basis points compared with the first quarter last year, but more than 80% of this is related to the PDL settlement.

與去年第一季度相比下降了 190 個基點，但其中 80% 以上與 PDL 結算有關。

Core SG&A expense was down 9% compared with the first quarter last year, as restructuring benefits and overall lower sales and marketing expenses in developed markets more than offset selected investments in emerging markets and a slight increase in the excise tax from US Healthcare Reform.

與去年第一季度相比，核心 SG&A 費用下降了 9%，這是因為重組收益和發達市場整體較低的銷售和營銷費用抵消了對新興市場的部分投資以及美國醫療改革帶來的消費稅略有增加。

Core other income was 25% higher than the first quarter last year.

核心其他收入比去年第一季度高出 25%。

This is largely the result of the Zomig deal in the US, where marketing rights have been licensed to the impact laboratories.

這主要是美國 Zomig 交易的結果，在美國，營銷權已授權給影響實驗室。

As a result, we now recognize the commercial contribution from Zomig in other income, not sales.

因此，我們現在將 Zomig 的商業貢獻確認為其他收入，而不是銷售額。

That leads to a core pre-R&D operating margin of 55.5% of revenue.

這導致核心研發前營業利潤率為收入的 55.5%。

That's above the top of our 48% to 54% planning range, but it is down 170 basis points compared to the first quarter last year.

這高於我們 48% 至 54% 的計劃範圍的上限，但與去年第一季度相比下降了 170 個基點。

The revenue and gross margin was only partially offset by the lower SG&A expenses and the higher other income.

收入和毛利率僅部分被較低的 SG&A 費用和較高的其他收入所抵消。

Core R&D investment in the quarter was just under $1.1 billion.

本季度的核心研發投資略低於 11 億美元。

Now, that's a 2% increase; largely attributable to a net increase in intangible asset impairments compared with last year.

現在，增加了 2%；主要是由於無形資產減值較上年淨增加所致。

We took the remaining $50 million impairment related to TC-5214 in the first quarter this year.

我們在今年第一季度對與 TC-5214 相關的剩餘 5000 萬美元進行了減值。

For the full year, I expect core R&D expense will be lower than last year in constant currency terms, both on an overall basis, and if you exclude the impact from intangible impairments from both periods.

對於全年，我預計核心研發費用按固定匯率計算將低於去年，無論是在整體基礎上，還是在排除兩個時期無形減值的影響的情況下。

So this leads to a core operating profit of $3 billion in the quarter; 18% lower than last year.

因此，這導致本季度的核心營業利潤為 30 億美元；比去年下降了 18%。

Core operating margin was 40.8% of revenue, and that's down 360 basis points.

核心營業利潤率為收入的 40.8%，下降了 360 個基點。

Turning to our productivity program.

轉向我們的生產力計劃。

One-third of the projected $2.1 billion total cost for the Phase 3 of restructuring was taken in the first quarter.

第三階段重組預計總成本為 21 億美元，其中三分之一是在第一季度完成的。

That's an indication of the pace at which the organization is implementing these plans; in particular, R&D, which accounted for $445 million of the $702 million charged in the quarter.

這表明組織實施這些計劃的速度；特別是研發，在本季度收取的 7.02 億美元中佔 4.45 億美元。

Most of the restructuring costs will be taken in 2012.

大部分重組費用將在 2012 年支付。

And we remain on track for delivering the estimated $1.6 billion in annual benefits by the end of 2014.

我們仍有望在 2014 年底之前實現估計 16 億美元的年度收益。

Cash generated from operating activities was $1.5 billion, compared with $1.9 billion in the same period last year.

經營活動產生的現金為 15 億美元，而去年同期為 19 億美元。

With the benefits arising from our disciplined management of working capital, we were able to partially offset the reduction in operating profit, and the $500 million contribution to the pension fund.

憑藉我們對營運資金的嚴格管理所帶來的收益，我們能夠部分抵消營業利潤的減少以及對養老基金的 5 億美元捐款。

Net cash distributions to shareholders in the first quarter were more than $3.4 billion, through a payment of $2.5 billion for the second interim dividend from 2011, and net share repurchases of $912 million; broadly in line with the pace required to complete the $4.5 billion target for the full year.

通過支付 25 億美元的 2011 年第二次中期股息和 9.12 億美元的淨股票回購，第一季度向股東的淨現金分配超過 34 億美元；大致符合完成全年 45 億美元目標所需的步伐。

Another potential call on cash in 2012 is the Merck shares option, or the second option, as it's also known by.

2012 年另一個潛在的現金看漲期權是 Merck 股票期權，或第二個期權，因為它也被稱為。

Now beginning in May, we have a six-month window to exercise the shares option; the first of three opportunities to do so.

現在從 5 月開始，我們有六個月的時間來行使股票期權；這樣做的三個機會中的第一個。

A notice of exercise would trigger an appraisal process to establish the value payable on closing the option, which is largely based on the net present value of the future annual contingent payments on Nexium and Prilosec in the US, and some other items.

行權通知將觸發評估程序，以確定關閉期權時的應付價值，這主要基於美國 Nexium 和 Prilosec 未來年度或有付款的淨現值，以及其他一些項目。

We've not yet decided whether we will exercise this year or not.

我們還沒有決定今年是否會鍛煉。

From a pure strategic freedom-to-operate perspective, our preference would be to exit the arrangement at the earliest juncture.

從純粹的戰略運營自由角度來看，我們傾向於儘早退出該安排。

But, ultimately, a decision as to whether we exercise in 2012 will be informed by whether the range of values that will emerge from our modeling of the various appraisal scenarios are attractive in economic terms.

但是，最終，關於我們是否在 2012 年行使的決定將取決於我們對各種評估情景的建模所產生的價值範圍在經濟方面是否具有吸引力。

Finally, let's turn to guidance, and we knew it was going to be a challenging year, with the main elements of the revenue profile being the loss of exclusivity on several products, particularly Seroquel IR.

最後，讓我們轉向指導，我們知道這將是充滿挑戰的一年，收入狀況的主要因素是失去了幾種產品的獨家經營權，尤其是 Seroquel IR。

Disposal of Astra Tech and the ongoing disposal of the Aptium business also contribute to the decline in revenue.

出售 Astra Tech 和持續出售 Aptium 業務也導致收入下降。

There are several other factors, however, which, while individually not large, collectively do exert downward pressure on our revenue expectations for the full year.

然而，還有其他幾個因素雖然單獨來看並不大，但它們共同對我們全年的收入預期施加了下行壓力。

We certainly expected government interventions on pricing to continue, but they are now looking to be at the upper bounds of what we'd anticipated, both in Europe as well as the impact in the US from the Medicare coverage gap adjustments.

我們當然預計政府會繼續對定價進行干預，但他們現在正處於我們預期的上限，無論是在歐洲還是在美國，醫療保險覆蓋缺口調整的影響都是如此。

We continue to have confidence in, and will vigorously defend, our intellectual property.

我們繼續對我們的知識產權充滿信心，並將積極捍衛我們的知識產權。

Now we prevailed in the US trial on the Seroquel XR patent, but we have also had an adverse judgment in the UK, and we've had some at-risk launches in Europe, and we've rulings in other jurisdictions pending.

現在我們在美國對 Seroquel XR 專利的審判中獲勝，但我們在英國也有不利的判決，我們在歐洲進行了一些有風險的發布，我們在其他司法管轄區的裁決懸而未決。

And we expected the revenue trends in emerging markets to be phased towards a weak Q1.

我們預計新興市場的收入趨勢將逐步走向疲軟的第一季度。

And I've called out the three markets that are the main drivers of the variance.

我已經指出了三個市場是差異的主要驅動因素。

While we're aiming for double-digit growth for the year, it will be a challenge to get there.

雖然我們的目標是今年實現兩位數的增長，但要實現這一目標將是一項挑戰。

Finally, we've seen an impact from our supply chain issues in the first quarter, and there will be some carryover of this into the second and possibly the third quarter.

最後，我們在第一季度看到了供應鏈問題的影響，這種影響將延續到第二季度，甚至可能是第三季度。

That's why, on balance, we've revised our revenue expectations to now be in the range of a low to mid-teens decline in constant currency terms, rather than the original low double-digit guidance.

這就是為什麼，總的來說，我們將我們的收入預期修改為現在處於以固定匯率計算的低至中等幅度的下降範圍內，而不是最初的低兩位數指導。

The second to the third quarters are likely to be the toughest.

第二至第三季度可能是最艱難的。

Now, against the backdrop of this challenging revenue picture, we're proceeding apace with the third phase of the restructuring, and we will, of course, exert discipline in our operating expenses.

現在，在這一充滿挑戰的收入形勢的背景下，我們正在快速推進重組的第三階段，當然，我們將在運營支出方面實行紀律。

We expect core pre-R&D margin to be in the upper half of our planning range, but below last year.

我們預計核心預研發利潤率將處於我們計劃範圍的上半部分，但低於去年。

But we will not compromise on the investments that will drive growth and value.

但我們不會在推動增長和價值的投資上妥協。

We'll continue to make sales and marketing investments behind new launches, and in our growth markets.

我們將繼續在新產品發布和我們的增長市場中進行銷售和營銷投資。

We'll continue to invest to progress the late stage pipelines, and in business development opportunities.

我們將繼續投資以推進後期管道和業務發展機會。

We're counting on productivity and restructuring to mitigate the investments behind these projects, which is why I expect R&D expense to be down in constant currency terms for the year.

我們指望生產力和重組來減少這些項目背後的投資，這就是為什麼我預計今年的研發費用按固定匯率計算會下降。

Finally, we'll also invest to rebuild inventories in the supply chain, following the implementation of the enterprise restore system in our plant in Sweden.

最後，在瑞典工廠實施企業恢復系統後，我們還將投資重建供應鏈中的庫存。

There's a change to the tax rate, which is now expected to be lower than the 24% we projected at the beginning of the year.

稅率發生了變化，現在預計將低於我們年初預測的 24%。

We're now estimating a 22% effective tax rate for the full year.

我們現在估計全年的有效稅率為 22%。

That's the result of the UK tax rate reduction, resolution of some tax audit issues in the first quarter and variations in the levels and mix of profitability in different jurisdictions.

這是英國稅率降低、第一季度一些稅務審計問題得到解決以及不同司法管轄區的盈利水平和組合發生變化的結果。

However, the delivery on restructuring, ongoing discipline and operating expenses and the lower tax rate will only partially mitigate the downward pressures on revenues.

然而，重組的實施、持續的紀律和運營費用以及較低的稅率只會部分緩解收入的下行壓力。

And, as a result, we have felt it prudent to lower our core EPS target for the full year to the range of $5.85 to $6.15 per share.

因此，我們認為將全年核心每股收益目標下調至每股 5.85 美元至 6.15 美元的範圍是明智的。

Currency was neutral to the first quarter core EPS, but I'd remind you that the forward look is based on the January 2012 average exchange rates, upon which our guidance was based.

貨幣對第一季度核心每股收益持中性態度，但我要提醒您，前瞻性展望是基於 2012 年 1 月的平均匯率，我們的指導也基於此。

It takes no account of the likelihood that average exchange rates for the remainder of the year may differ materially from the January 2012 average.

它沒有考慮今年剩餘時間的平均匯率可能與 2012 年 1 月的平均匯率存在重大差異的可能性。

In summary, it has been a tough quarter as we face the challenges of generic competition and government action on pricing and the other factors that I just discussed.

總而言之，這是一個艱難的季度，因為我們面臨仿製藥競爭和政府定價行動以及我剛才討論的其他因素的挑戰。

But we continue to drive the performance of brands that retain exclusivity.

但我們繼續推動保留獨家品牌的業績。

We're quickly implementing the third phase of restructuring.

我們正在迅速實施重組的第三階段。

And our resilient cash generation supports investment in innovation as well as strong cash distributions to shareholders.

我們富有彈性的現金生成支持創新投資以及對股東的強勁現金分配。

And in the last few weeks we've announced the significant collaboration with Amgen, an agreement to acquire Ardea Biosciences and these are examples of the kinds of opportunities that we'll continue to pursue to create value.

在過去的幾周里，我們宣布了與 Amgen 的重要合作，一項收購 Ardea Biosciences 的協議，這些都是我們將繼續尋求創造價值的各種機會的例子。

So, with that, I think we'd now be delighted to take your questions.

因此，我想我們現在很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) So perhaps we can have the first question, please.

（操作員說明）所以也許我們可以提出第一個問題。

Sachin, Merrill Lynch.

薩欽，美林證券。

Just three, if I may.

如果可以的話，只有三個。

Firstly on the wires you've been quoted as saying your annual strategy review is ongoing and outcome in the second half.

首先，在電報中，你被引用說你的年度戰略審查正在進行中，並在下半年得出結果。

I wonder if you could just allude to the questions that are being asked as part of that.

我想知道你是否可以提及作為其中一部分提出的問題。

Is the scope of that review any different to how it normally would be, given the business pressures that you're facing?

鑑於您面臨的業務壓力，該審查的範圍是否與通常的範圍有何不同？

Second question on emerging markets.

第二個問題關於新興市場。

We've seen most of the companies that have reported so far have -- struggling in emerging markets, low to mid-single-digit growth rate.

到目前為止，我們已經看到大多數已發布報告的公司——在新興市場苦苦掙扎，增長率處於低至中等個位數。

I was just wondering if you could reappraise us of what emerging market expectations you've got within your long-term guidance and the confidence in that?

我只是想知道您是否可以重新評估我們在您的長期指導範圍內對新興市場的期望以及對此的信心？

And then the final question is on M&A.

最後一個問題是關於併購。

Clearly you have had deals and you're alluding to deals of similar nature.

很明顯，你有過交易，而且你在暗示類似性質的交易。

I wonder if you could just remind us of the scope of M&A that you're looking at.

我想知道您是否可以提醒我們您正在研究的併購範圍。

I think David had commented at the full-year call that there was no upper limit to deals.

我認為大衛在全年電話會議上評論說交易沒有上限。

I wonder if you could just triangulate those comments.

我想知道你是否可以對這些評論進行三角測量。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝你。

First of all, let me deal with them perhaps in that order.

首先，讓我按照這個順序處理它們。

In terms of annual strategy, it's an annual process through which, as an executive team and a Board, we review our strategy, our investment plans and our outlook as a business.

就年度戰略而言，這是一個年度流程，作為執行團隊和董事會，我們審查我們的戰略、我們的投資計劃和我們作為企業的前景。

We always ask ourselves pretty broad-based questions about where we think the sector's heading, the sorts of options that we could explore as a Company.

我們總是問自己一些非常廣泛的問題，比如我們認為該行業的發展方向，以及我們作為一家公司可以探索的各種選擇。

We test those pretty hard and, as you'd expect ,and gauge the Board on those questions.

我們非常努力地測試這些問題，並且正如您所期望的那樣，並根據這些問題評估董事會。

And this year we'll follow the same process and I'm certain that the breadth of questions will be as broad as we've seen and, obviously, we expect to have new Board members and a new Chairman and I'm sure they'll bring some fresh ideas, fresh perspective to stimulate our thinking.

今年我們將遵循相同的流程，我確信問題的範圍將與我們所看到的一樣廣泛，顯然，我們希望有新的董事會成員和新主席，我相信他們會帶來一些新鮮的想法，新鮮的視角來激發我們的思考。

So that's the process that will be underway as we go into the summer and latter part of the year, and I'm sure will be broad in scope.

所以這就是我們進入夏季和今年下半年時將要進行的過程，我相信範圍會很廣。

In terms of emerging markets, I think we continue to see very strong fundamentals for the growth of our business out into the future.

就新興市場而言，我認為我們繼續看到未來業務增長的非常強勁的基本面。

And we've talked, Sachin, about this before.

薩欽，我們之前談過這個。

The populations are expanding, people are living for longer, they're more affluent and are more demanding of the standard of healthcare and the medicines that they wish, and that provides a huge driver to our business.

人口在擴大，人們的壽命越來越長，他們越來越富裕，對醫療保健標準和他們想要的藥物的要求也越來越高，這為我們的業務提供了巨大的推動力。

And we continue to see very strong healthy growth in markets like China, in Russia, in the Middle East and, indeed, underlying growth in markets like Brazil.

我們繼續看到中國、俄羅斯、中東等市場非常強勁的健康增長，事實上，巴西等市場的潛在增長。

So we will continue to invest very hard to realize that opportunity.

因此，我們將繼續努力投資以實現這一機會。

We're investing in our sales and marketing resources and expanding those.

我們正在投資我們的銷售和營銷資源並擴大這些資源。

We're investing in market access plants in markets like China and Russia.

我們正在中國和俄羅斯等市場投資市場准入工廠。

And we've also, as you've probably seen, recently acquired a business in China to broaden our product portfolio in order to access the broad market.

正如您可能已經看到的那樣，我們最近還收購了中國的一家企業，以擴大我們的產品組合，從而進入廣闊的市場。

So we'll continue to invest behind that opportunity.

因此，我們將繼續投資於這個機會。

We've seen a weak first quarter and, as I mentioned, it's going to be a challenging year to bring back to our double-digit expectations.

我們已經看到第一季度疲軟，正如我提到的那樣，要恢復我們兩位數的預期，這將是充滿挑戰的一年。

And that really does reflect the prior-year comparators in the context of some generic entry in Brazil, very important market for us; pricing, as I -- I cited Turkey.

這確實反映了巴西一些仿製藥進入的背景下的前一年比較，巴西是我們非常重要的市場；定價，因為我 - 我引用了土耳其。

We've had pricing at a smaller scale in one or two other markets, and some tough conditions in Mexico.

我們在其他一兩個市場的定價規模較小，在墨西哥也有一些艱難的條件。

But we'd anticipated much of that, albeit it's probably been a bit tougher than we'd expected.

但我們已經預料到了其中的大部分內容，儘管它可能比我們預期的要難一些。

So I think it's a near-term issue, but we remain very confident in the prospect for our emerging markets business.

所以我認為這是一個短期問題，但我們對新興市場業務的前景仍然充滿信心。

In terms of your final question, our priorities in terms of business development in M&A, I think, are clear and ones that we've been pursuing very actively.

關於你的最後一個問題，我認為我們在併購業務發展方面的優先事項是明確的，而且我們一直在非常積極地追求這些優先事項。

The first is to complement our late-stage and strengthen our late-stage pipeline, and that's through peer collaboration, such as the one that we announced recently with Amgen.

第一個是補充我們的後期並加強我們的後期管道，這是通過同行合作，例如我們最近與 Amgen 宣布的合作。

It's through more traditional in-licensing deals, and we're very active in a number of situations.

這是通過更傳統的許可交易，我們在許多情況下都非常活躍。

But it's also where we can see strong products that complement our capabilities, whether that's commercially or development, to acquire attractive late-stage assets, and you saw us do that with Ardea, with the acquisition that we'd announced earlier this week.

但它也是我們可以看到強大的產品補充我們能力的地方，無論是商業還是開發，以獲得有吸引力的後期資產，你看到我們通過 Ardea 做到了這一點，我們本週早些時候宣布了收購。

That's the first priority, strengthen the pipeline.

這是第一要務，加強管道。

The second is we've got a very strong commercial capability around the world.

第二是我們在全球擁有非常強大的商業能力。

We actively look for portfolios and marketed product to bring into the Company.

我們積極尋找投資組合和營銷產品以帶入公司。

We've done some smaller acquisitions in our emerging markets.

我們在新興市場進行了一些較小的收購。

But that's an area we continue to look for good opportunities.

但這是我們繼續尋找好機會的領域。

We're very active at the moment and I'm sure we'll be doing more over the course of this year.

我們目前非常活躍，我相信今年我們會做得更多。

Just a quick follow on, what is --

快速跟進，什麼是——

Alexandra, JPMorgan.

亞歷山德拉，摩根大通。

Three questions, please.

請教三個問題。

Firstly, is your long-term revenue guidance of $28 billion to $34 billion range at risk?

首先，您 280 億美元至 340 億美元的長期收入指導是否存在風險？

If you're declining this year by low to mid-teens, and then some more in 2013 as Seroquel and Crestor Canada have to analyze and the Atacand erosion comes on top, you should fall below $28 billion in 2013.

如果你今年下降了十幾歲到十幾歲，然後在 2013 年下降更多，因為 Seroquel 和 Crestor Canada 必須分析並且 Atacand 侵蝕排在首位，那麼你在 2013 年應該會下降到 280 億美元以下。

The second question is coming back to the emerging market point, because I think all of us asked ourselves a critical question, whether this is, indeed, just phasing or the long-feared dramatic slowdown of emerging market sales, as all the usual headwinds of pricing and generics eventually also play out in these markets.

第二個問題回到新興市場點，因為我認為我們所有人都問過自己一個關鍵問題，這是否真的只是階段性的，還是人們長期以來擔心的新興市場銷售急劇放緩，因為所有常見的逆風定價和仿製藥最終也會在這些市場中發揮作用。

And I hear you, on the one side, arguing drivers are a growing more affluent population, but the European driver was always going to be an aging population and that doesn't result in rising sales either.

我聽到你，一方面，爭論司機是越來越富裕的人口，但歐洲司機總是人口老齡化，這也不會導致銷售額增長。

So what markets, other than China, do you really see growing double digit in the next few years sustainably?

那麼，除了中國之外，還有哪些市場在未來幾年內真正實現兩位數的可持續增長？

Just any sort of reassurance that you think that something close to double digit is possible.

只是任何形式的保證，你認為接近兩位數的東西是可能的。

It's quite interesting, by the way, that you're talking in terms of Brazil for underlying growth.

順便說一下，您談論的是巴西的潛在增長，這很有趣。

That doesn't really -- it isn't really confidence aspiring in the growth potential of this market.

這並不是真的——對這個市場的增長潛力抱有信心並不是真的。

The third question is about the deal you announced last night with The Medicines Company.

第三個問題是關於你昨晚宣布的與 The Medicines Company 的交易。

There seems to be some indication that you may think about collaboration also on Cangrelor, which I actually find difficult to understand, given that if the Phase III for that product works out, it would probably compete for share with Brilinta.

似乎有一些跡象表明你可能會考慮在 Cangrelor 上進行合作，我實際上覺得這很難理解，因為如果該產品的 III 期試驗成功，它可能會與 Brilinta 競爭份額。

So can you just maybe tell us under which conditions there would be a collaboration on that product or not?

那麼你能不能告訴我們在什麼條件下會在該產品上進行合作？

Let me start with your first one and just talk about the revenue.

讓我從你的第一個開始，只談談收入。

As we've described, we'd expected to see low double digit, low-teens decline in revenues this year for, predominantly, loss of exclusivity on key brands.

正如我們所描述的，我們預計今年的收入將出現低兩位數、低十幾位的下降，主要是因為主要品牌失去了獨家經營權。

As we've said today, for a number of individual factors, none individually large but collectively contribute to us lowering those expectations, low to mid-teens for this year.

正如我們今天所說的那樣，對於許多單獨的因素，沒有一個單獨的因素很大但共同導致我們降低了今年的預期，低至十幾歲。

And that's the position for this year.

這就是今年的立場。

It's been -- we've seen a bit more pricing pressure in Europe and the US; we have seen generic launches at risk, and I called out particularly Seroquel XR; some pressures in one or two markets in the emerging markets; and then, finally, the supply chain limitations on supply we've experienced.

一直以來——我們已經看到歐洲和美國的價格壓力有所增加；我們已經看到仿製藥上市面臨風險，我特別提到了 Seroquel XR；新興市場中一兩個市場的一些壓力；最後，我們所經歷的供應鏈供應限制。

So those are the four factors I called out.

所以這些就是我提到的四個因素。

When we look beyond this year, we review our mid-term planning assumptions as an integral of the annual strategy review that I described, where we look at what's happening in our main markets, the investments we're going to make.

當我們展望今年以後時，我們會審查我們的中期計劃假設，將其作為我所描述的年度戰略審查的一個組成部分，我們會在其中查看主要市場正在發生的事情，以及我們將要進行的投資。

And it's through that process that we take a very thorough look at our future projections, and that's ongoing in the latter part of the year.

正是通過這個過程，我們對未來的預測進行了非常徹底的審視，這在今年下半年正在進行。

We update the market in January.

我們在一月份更新市場。

That, as you know, has been our practice and that will remain our practice.

如你所知，這一直是我們的做法，並將繼續是我們的做法。

What I can do for now is reiterate that we continue to expect sales in the revenue corridor of $28 billion to $34 billion.

我現在能做的是重申，我們繼續預計收入走廊的銷售額為 280 億美元至 340 億美元。

That's the guidance we provided at the beginning of the year, and that remains in place.

這是我們在年初提供的指南，並且仍然有效。

But, obviously, the increased pricing and generic pressures and the pipeline progress caused at the beginning of the year to say that the center of gravity for revenue through to 2014 is going to be in the lower part of our range, and that remains our view, as we'd expressed at the beginning of the year.

但是，很明顯，今年年初定價和仿製藥壓力的增加以及管道的進展表明，到 2014 年的收入重心將處於我們範圍的較低部分，這仍然是我們的觀點，正如我們在年初所表達的那樣。

So thanks very much for that question.

非常感謝這個問題。

And there was a third question, which was The Medicines Company, where we've entered into an agreement with The Medicines Company and that's an opportunity for us to bring further resource, further capability, alongside Brilinta in the US.

還有第三個問題，即 The Medicines Company，我們已經與 The Medicines Company 達成協議，這是我們與美國的 Brilinta 一起帶來更多資源和能力的機會。

And, indeed, it is a broader development and commercialization collaboration.

事實上，這是更廣泛的開發和商業化合作。

But Ed, I don't know if you want to elaborate?

但是 Ed，我不知道你是否想詳細說明一下？

Quite right.

非常正確。

The agreement is an agreement to also develop plans for collaborating, possibly on Angiomax and Cangrelor, as you mentioned, Alexandra.

該協議是一項還制定合作計劃的協議，可能是在 Angiomax 和 Cangrelor 上，正如你提到的，Alexandra。

We wouldn't necessarily consider it to be a direct competitor to Brilinta in the extent that Cangrelor is an IV product for injection, so it would only be used in the very acute phase of the in-hospital stay.

我們不一定認為它是 Brilinta 的直接競爭對手，因為 Cangrelor 是一種注射用 IV 產品，因此它只會用於住院期間非常嚴重的階段。

It would not really be competitive against the vast majority of the oral anti-platelet market, which outpatient retail pharmacy therapy.

與門診零售藥房治療的絕大多數口服抗血小板藥物市場相比，它不會真正具有競爭力。

So we see that as potentially very complementary.

所以我們認為這可能非常互補。

You've got patients who cannot either take oral medications or perhaps where the fast onset/offset of a injectable product might be appropriate for patients who are on the cusp of whether they're going to need angio -- either cabbage surgery.

你有不能服用口服藥物的患者，或者可能注射產品的快速起效/抵消可能適合處於是否需要血管造影術——捲心菜手術的風口浪尖的患者。

So those are areas where we think they could actually be a good fit.

所以這些是我們認為它們實際上可能非常適合的領域。

Ed, thanks for that.

埃德，謝謝你。

We've got a question come in from email from Eric Le Berrigaud and he's asking, is a 22% tax rate reasonable also going forward over the next two to three years?

我們從 Eric Le Berrigaud 的電子郵件中收到了一個問題，他在問，在未來兩到三年內，22% 的稅率是否也合理？

And let me deal with that first question.

讓我來處理第一個問題。

I think we've benefited, as I mentioned, this year from three factors, which has allowed us to lower our tax rate.

正如我所提到的，我認為今年我們從三個因素中受益，這使我們能夠降低稅率。

The first was the change in the UK corporate tax rate, as you'll all be aware, and that's clearly a factor which will play out as we move forward and give us some benefit to the tax line.

首先是英國公司稅率的變化，正如你們都知道的那樣，這顯然是一個隨著我們前進而發揮作用的因素，並為我們的稅收線帶來一些好處。

Secondly, we have resolved a number of tax audits.

二是解決了一批稅務稽查問題。

As a second contributor, that's more of an impact for this year, and won't affect the situation for subsequent years.

作為第二個貢獻者，這對今年的影響更大，不會影響以後幾年的情況。

Thirdly, we talked about a product and geographic mix that was taking us into areas that have a lower marginal tax rate.

第三，我們談到了一種產品和地理組合，這種組合將我們帶入邊際稅率較低的地區。

Difficult to call how that shapes up over the years going forward.

很難說未來幾年會如何發展。

So I think the indication we gave you at the beginning of the year was that the 24% we saw for 2012 was something that felt pretty sound basis for the next few years.

所以我認為我們在年初給你的指示是，我們在 2012 年看到的 24% 是未來幾年感覺非常可靠的基礎。

I think you can recognize there's a bit of downward pressure on that, given the UK tax rate.

鑑於英國的稅率，我認為你可以認識到這方面存在一些下行壓力。

And that's probably the best guidance I can give you at this stage, Eric, and we'll be able to update you as the year progresses.

這可能是我現階段可以給你的最好指導，埃里克，我們將能夠隨著時間的推移向你更新。

Eric had a second question, which was, is it possible to be more specific about which products were impacted by the implementation of a new IT system in Sweden?

Eric 還有第二個問題，是否可以更具體地說明哪些產品受到瑞典新 IT 系統實施的影響？

And yes, indeed, Eric, we can give you a bit more information on that.

是的，埃里克，我們確實可以為您提供更多相關信息。

So our plant in Sweden is probably most significant in our supply chain.

因此，我們在瑞典的工廠可能在我們的供應鏈中最為重要。

It's an important facility for us.

這對我們來說是一個重要的設施。

And the products which are concentrated there are Symbicort, Oxis, Pulmicort, Rhinocort, so the respiratory products, but also Nexium, Atacand and Seloken ZOC.

那裡集中的產品有Symbicort，Oxis，Pulmicort，Rhinocort，呼吸產品，還有Nexium，Atacand和Seloken ZOC。

So, Eric, I hope that helps you.

所以，埃里克，我希望這對你有幫助。

We're going to move to a second emailed question, from Kristofer Liljeberg, and this was a follow up on investments in emerging markets.

我們將轉到第二個電子郵件問題，來自 Kristofer Liljeberg，這是對新興市場投資的跟進。

The question was, how much are you expanding SG&A costs this year in those markets?

問題是，您今年在這些市場中增加了多少 SG&A 成本？

And the answer to that is that we're seeing an increase in our SG&A costs in a number of different markets.

答案是我們看到許多不同市場的 SG&A 成本有所增加。

I would call out markets like Russia, China.

我會指出像俄羅斯、中國這樣的市場。

The Middle East is the market we've been investing in -- heavily increasing.

中東是我們一直在投資的市場——大幅增加。

And then actually some smaller markets, which are growing very fast for us.

然後實際上是一些較小的市場，這些市場對我們來說增長非常快。

Call out Vietnam, I call out India, as being a couple of markets where we've seen strong growth over the last 12 months.

呼喚越南，我呼喚印度，作為我們在過去 12 個月中看到強勁增長的幾個市場。

So we're investing hard in those markets.

所以我們在這些市場上大力投資。

Probably, Kristofer, your question prompts me to realize that I didn't answer Alexandra's second question, about emerging markets.

可能，Kristofer，你的問題促使我意識到我沒有回答 Alexandra 的第二個問題，關於新興市場。

And Alexandra, forgive me for that.

亞歷山德拉，請原諒我。

We were in the middle of that, experiencing some technology issues here, in making sure the phone calls come through, which we'll update you on in a moment.

我們正處於其中，在確保電話接通方面遇到了一些技術問題，我們稍後會向您通報最新情況。

But, coming back to your question on emerging markets, we continue to see, as I mentioned, very strong fundamentals driving underlying prescription growth, underlying demand for medicines.

但是，回到你關於新興市場的問題，正如我提到的，我們繼續看到非常強勁的基本面推動潛在的處方增長，以及對藥品的潛在需求。

And that's why we feel confident about the future prospects, and why we're investing hard behind them.

這就是為什麼我們對未來前景充滿信心，也是我們大力投資的原因。

You're right, though, Alexandra, that there are pricing pressures in a number of markets.

不過，亞歷山德拉，你是對的，許多市場都存在定價壓力。

We'd anticipated those, and it means that, to realize and get value from that underlying prescription growth we have to be as efficient in those markets as we are in our established markets, and we're looking to broaden our product portfolio to give us some more products that are able to access the mass markets at, in some case, more competitive price points.

我們已經預料到了這些，這意味著，要實現潛在的處方藥增長並從中獲得價值，我們必須在這些市場中像在成熟市場中一樣高效，並且我們正在尋求擴大我們的產品組合，以提供我們提供更多能夠以更具競爭力的價格進入大眾市場的產品。

And that's what lay behind, for example, our investment in our branded generics capability in India and also behind the acquisition we've recently made in China.

這就是我們在印度對品牌仿製藥能力的投資以及我們最近在中國進行的收購背後的原因。

So, hopefully, I've addressed those two questions.

所以，希望我已經解決了這兩個問題。

I'm being informed that our phones are still out, so I'm afraid if you want to put questions to us while we address that, if I could ask you to email your questions to us, I'd appreciate it.

我被告知我們的電話仍然沒電，所以恐怕如果你想在我們解決這個問題時向我們提出問題，如果我可以請你將你的問題通過電子郵件發送給我們，我將不勝感激。

We have a question coming in, I think, from Peter at Morgan Stanley.

我想我們有一個問題來自摩根士丹利的彼得。

So, Peter, you've asked if we can talk a bit about capital allocation and capital discipline, given the revenue challenges being faced and the public comments about the willingness to pursue business development more actively, and, linked to that, what leverage we're comfortable of taking on, and how would we see BD opportunities potentially impacting the progressive dividend and buybacks.

所以，彼得，你問過我們是否可以談談資本分配和資本紀律，考慮到所面臨的收入挑戰以及公眾對更積極地追求業務發展的意願的評論，以及與此相關的是，我們利用什麼槓桿很樂意接受，我們如何看待 BD 機會可能影響累進股息和回購。

So, Peter, thanks very much for that question.

所以，彼得，非常感謝你提出這個問題。

I think the starting point, as we think about capital allocation, is to recognize the strong and resilient cash-generation capability of our business.

我認為，在我們考慮資本配置時，起點是要認識到我們業務強大而有彈性的現金生成能力。

And you've seen that again during this quarter, notwithstanding it's been a demanding quarter.

你在本季度再次看到了這一點，儘管這是一個要求很高的季度。

You saw that our cash flow held up very well, notwithstanding the decline in operating profit.

你看到我們的現金流保持得很好，儘管營業利潤下降了。

Of that cash being generated from our core business, we reallocate into in-house R&D, but also into in-licensing of late-stage compounds, something like 40% to 50%; that's the guidance we've provided.

在我們核心業務產生的現金中，我們重新分配給內部研發，但也分配給後期化合物的許可，大約 40% 到 50%；這就是我們提供的指導。

The residual is, therefore, available to fund our progressive dividend policy, which we remain absolutely committed to.

因此，剩餘部分可用於為我們的漸進式股息政策提供資金，我們仍然絕對致力於這一政策。

And then the remainder is available for investment in the business in further BD activity, and where we don't see good opportunities in a 12-month period, we will return that to our buyback program.

然後剩餘的可用於進一步 BD 活動的業務投資，如果我們在 12 個月內看不到好的機會，我們將把它退回我們的回購計劃。

So the investment of 40% to 50% back into the late-stage pipeline is the first plank, but we certainly have, given the cash balances we have, and the residual cash after our progressive dividend policy, we have the flexibility to pursue our BD and bolt-on strategy where we see good opportunities.

因此，將 40% 至 50% 的投資回流到後期管道是第一個支柱，但我們當然有，鑑於我們擁有的現金餘額，以及我們漸進式股息政策後的剩餘現金，我們可以靈活地追求我們的BD 和補強戰略，我們看到了很好的機會。

And if we do not see opportunities that meet our sort of value criteria, of course, we will return cash to our shareholders through our share buyback program.

如果我們沒有看到符合我們價值標準的機會，當然，我們將通過股票回購計劃向股東返還現金。

So, Peter, hopefully that gives you what you were looking for on that question.

所以，彼得，希望這能為您提供有關該問題的答案。

Gbola, UBS.

哥博拉，瑞銀。

I think those of us on the line were all cut off, so apologies if these two questions have been asked already.

我想我們這些在線的人都被切斷了，所以如果這兩個問題已經被問到，我深表歉意。

On your revenue, the shortfall is pretty broad on products and on geographies.

就您的收入而言，產品和地域方面的差距相當大。

Could you comment on whether reduced promotion was a possible factor for the broad shortfall, and whether it signals to other effects later this year on your financials?

您能否評論一下晉升減少是否是造成普遍短缺的一個可能因素，以及它是否預示著今年晚些時候對您的財務狀況會產生其他影響？

And then, secondly, on emerging markets again, we saw Crestor go generic in Brazil, and previously in Eastern Europe, affecting your growth.

然後，其次，再次在新興市場上，我們看到 Crestor 在巴西和之前在東歐變得仿製藥，影響了你的增長。

Are there other major drugs that will go generic in major emerging markets in 2012 and 2013?

2012 年和 2013 年是否有其他主要藥物將在主要新興市場仿製藥？

Let me deal with your first question, and the answer is, absolutely not.

讓我來處理你的第一個問題，答案是，絕對不會。

We continue to invest very hard in sales and marketing promotional activity behind our brands, where we see growth potential; and particularly where they're protected with patents, where they're protected with brands in emerging markets.

我們繼續大力投資於我們品牌背後的銷售和營銷促銷活動，我們看到了增長潛力；特別是在他們受到專利保護的地方，在新興市場受到品牌保護的地方。

So we're investing as hard in those areas as we have always done, and, indeed, we're developing for the multiple challenge for promotions alongside that.

因此，我們一如既往地在這些領域進行大力投資，事實上，我們正在為促銷活動的多重挑戰而努力。

Where we have been removing, reducing, our sales and marketing level and resource has been in the wake of genericization; for example, Seroquel IR in the US.

在通用化之後，我們一直在刪除、減少我們的銷售和營銷水平和資源；例如，美國的 Seroquel IR。

So the most attractive returns and paybacks we get as a business is investing behind our brands, where we've got growth.

因此，作為一家企業，我們獲得的最具吸引力的回報和回報是投資於我們的品牌，我們已經實現了增長。

And that's what we remain absolutely committed to.

這就是我們仍然絕對致力於的。

Given the efforts we're making on restructuring and [productivity], we're able to do that while bringing our SG&A costs down, as you saw.

鑑於我們在重組和[生產力]方面所做的努力，我們能夠做到這一點，同時降低我們的 SG&A 成本，正如您所看到的。

So that's the first, I think, question.

我認為這是第一個問題。

So no, absolutely we continue to invest very hard behind brands where we see growth.

所以不，我們絕對會繼續大力投資我們看到增長的品牌。

Your second question is, are there other generic risks in emerging markets.

你的第二個問題是，新興市場是否存在其他一般性風險。

So I would say that the two that are characterized, latter part of last year and this year, where we have seen some generic entry often at risk and we, therefore, continue to take action through the courts to respond to that, are Crestor, where we're protected by formulation not substance matter patents, and the same on Seroquel.

所以我想說的是，在去年下半年和今年，我們看到一些通用條目經常處於危險之中，因此我們繼續通過法院採取行動對此做出回應，這兩個是 Crestor，我們受到配方而非物質專利的保護，Seroquel 也是如此。

And I think we called out already the main ones that we see and you'll see those in our legal proceedings note.

我認為我們已經提出了我們看到的主要問題，您會在我們的法律程序說明中看到這些問題。

Ed, I don't know if there's anything else you could add to that, if you want to.

Ed，如果你願意的話，我不知道你是否還有什麼可以補充的。

Yes, what's worth mentioning is that in Eastern Europe there actually was no patent estate there.

是的，值得一提的是，在東歐實際上並沒有專利產業。

So it's a question of when the data exclusivity expired in those markets, we attracted the generic competition.

所以這是一個問題，當這些市場的數據獨占期到期時，我們吸引了通用競爭。

I'd say, on balance, if you look going forward, most of the patent expiries in emerging markets are probably similar to what we're going to see in the developed world; which is Nexium in selected markets, you've got Atacand coming up at the back end of this year, and Seroquel IR, as we expected.

我想說，總的來說，如果你展望未來，新興市場的大部分專利到期可能與我們將在發達國家看到的情況相似；在選定的市場中，Nexium 將在今年年底推出 Atacand，正如我們預期的那樣，Seroquel IR 將上市。

Yes, I think the distinction often in those markets is that, while we may lose cash and protection, we continue to drive and can compete effectively with brands recognizing the premiums that are frequently paid in those markets for the brands.

是的，我認為這些市場的區別通常在於，雖然我們可能會失去現金和保護，但我們會繼續推動並能夠與品牌有效競爭，認識到這些市場經常為品牌支付的溢價。

James, do you have something to add to that, having led a number of our emerging markets?

詹姆斯，你有什麼要補充的嗎，你曾領導過我們的許多新興市場？

Yes, (inaudible), as we've talked about as well, a number of markets, like China and also in Russia and across the Middle East and Africa, we already see multiple generics and we have never had patent protection for a number of our products.

是的，（聽不清），正如我們也談到的那樣，許多市場，如中國、俄羅斯以及整個中東和非洲，我們已經看到了多種仿製藥，而且我們從未獲得過許多專利保護我們的產品。

And we've even entered the market after the generics have entered the market in certain cases.

在某些情況下，我們甚至在仿製藥進入市場後也進入了市場。

And then the key issue is really three fold; our brand quality and our ability to drive a commercial brand across a country at large; the strength of the competition, and many of those markets don't have strong competition, unlike Brazil and Mexico, where you've got very strong local players; and also the structure of the reimbursement and Co-pay arrangements.

然後關鍵問題實際上是三方面的；我們的品牌質量和我們在全國范圍內推動商業品牌的能力；競爭的強度，其中許多市場沒有激烈的競爭，不像巴西和墨西哥，那裡有非常強大的本地參與者；以及報銷和共同支付安排的結構。

And Brazil and Mexico, to some degree, are relatively sophisticated in the structure of the market, whereas a number of other markets don't have those systems in place.

在某種程度上，巴西和墨西哥的市場結構相對複雜，而其他一些市場則沒有這些系統。

And that's why we believe there is a strong sustainability in the branded medicines, irrespective of the patent estate at large.

這就是為什麼我們相信品牌藥具有很強的可持續性，無論專利財產如何。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Very good.

非常好。

Let me pick up -- Steve from (inaudible)'s on the line, but I thought I might just pick up a couple of email questions, just work through those, Steve, before I come back to you, if I may.

讓我從（聽不清）在線接聽史蒂夫，但我想我可能會接聽幾個電子郵件問題，先解決這些問題，史蒂夫，然後再回复你，如果可以的話。

And we had a question from Tim Franklin, and I'm going to propose this one and, Ed, you may have to pick this up.

蒂姆·富蘭克林提出了一個問題，我將提出這個問題，埃德，你可能不得不選擇這個問題。

Tim's been asking, can we provide the prescription growth of Crestor in Japan?

Tim一直在問，我們可以提供日本Crestor的增長處方嗎？

And if we have that to hand, I'm going to ask Ed if he can pull that out for you, Tim.

如果我們有手頭的東西，我會問埃德他是否可以為你把它拿出來，蒂姆。

If not, we will absolutely get that to you post the call.

如果沒有，我們絕對會在電話後將其發送給您。

And then another question, also from Tim, which was the fall in the strong constant currency growth in the Rest of the World market for Crestor.

然後還有另一個問題，也是來自 Tim，這是 Crestor 在世界其他地區市場的強勁持續貨幣增長的下降。

How much of this is explained by the phasing of shipments to Japan and generic competition in Brazil?

其中有多少是由於分階段向日本發貨和巴西的仿製藥競爭造成的？

Are there any other Rest of the World factors that explain the CER growth contraction for Crestor?

是否還有任何其他世界其他因素可以解釋 Crestor 的 CER 增長收縮？

And the answer to that is this is predominantly the impact in Japan and Brazil.

答案是這主要是對日本和巴西的影響。

I think those are the two main drivers of the year-to-year comparison of Crestor, Rest of World.

我認為這些是世界其他地區克雷斯特逐年比較的兩個主要驅動因素。

Overall, we continue to see strong growth in demand for Crestor above and beyond the statin market.

總體而言，我們繼續看到在他汀類藥物市場之外對 Crestor 的需求強勁增長。

Ed, do you have the Japan prescription growth there for us?

艾德，你有日本的處方藥嗎？

Yes, the underlying market demand, which is aside from the phasing of shipments, is something in the mid teens.

是的，除了發貨的分階段之外，潛在的市場需求是十幾歲左右。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Ed.

謝謝，埃德。

And then finally, on just one other question, picking up here from the calls, I've got Lars Hevreng from Enskilda.

最後，關於另一個問題，接聽電話，我有來自 Enskilda 的 Lars Hevreng。

Lars, you'd asked the rationale between first firing a quarter of the US sales force and then bringing another company's sales force to promote your biggest develop ever, Brilinta.

Lars，您曾問過先解僱四分之一的美國銷售人員然後引入另一家公司的銷售人員來促進您有史以來最大的發展 Brilinta 之間的基本原理。

And this really reflects the differing capabilities that we're looking for.

這確實反映了我們正在尋找的不同功能。

We reduced our sales force at the back end of last year, particularly in anticipation of the Seroquel IR patent expiration.

我們在去年年底減少了我們的銷售人員，特別是在預期 Seroquel IR 專利到期的情況下。

And we continue to drive Brilinta very hard and been comfortable with the level of resourcing.

我們繼續非常努力地推動 Brilinta，並對資源水平感到滿意。

The opportunity with The Medicines Company is to bring alongside a very experienced sales force in that particular market area in the US, but also to explore, as Ed mentioned earlier, a much broader program of development and commercialization.

The Medicines Company 的機會是在美國的特定市場區域帶來一支非常有經驗的銷售隊伍，而且正如 Ed 前面提到的那樣，還可以探索更廣泛的開發和商業化計劃。

And we look forward to that.

我們對此充滿期待。

Lars, you asked a second question.

拉爾斯，你問了第二個問題。

$350 million in sales lost to government interventions in Q1 approximates 5% of revenues.

第一季度因政府乾預而損失的銷售額為 3.5 億美元，約佔收入的 5%。

How does that compare with longer term assumptions?

這與長期假設相比如何？

It's a good question, and perhaps I can refer you to the two bits of guidance we've provided on this in the past, which is we've seen the impact of the US healthcare reform running at around about $700 million a year.

這是一個很好的問題，也許我可以向您推薦我們過去就此提供的兩點指導，即我們已經看到美國醫療改革的影響每年約為 7 億美元。

And we've said that price interventions in Europe have typically been in the low to mid single digits historically.

我們已經說過，從歷史上看，歐洲的價格干預通常處於中低個位數。

But we really have been seeing price interventions at the mid-single-digit range, so in that sort of 5% range.

但我們確實看到價格干預處於中個位數範圍內，所以在 5% 的範圍內。

And, indeed, it tipped a little bit higher than that in the last few months.

而且，確實，它比過去幾個月略高了一點。

So the sort of decline due to government intervention is 5%.

因此，由於政府乾預而導致的下降是 5%。

You've described it as being in the assumptions we've made looking forward, but it is fair to say we're up there at the top end of our expectations.

你已經將其描述為我們做出的假設，但可以公平地說，我們已經達到了預期的最高端。

So with that, Steve, you've been waiting patiently, let me come back to your question.

因此，史蒂夫，你一直在耐心等待，讓我回到你的問題上來。

Steve?

史蒂夫？

Apologies if it was answered during the technology issues, but you mentioned the catch-up provision for the (inaudible) [hole].

如果在技術問題期間得到解答，我們深表歉意，但您提到了（聽不清）[漏洞] 的追趕規定。

Would you expand on why it's larger than expected?

你能解釋一下為什麼它比預期的要大嗎？

Is there any particular product that is the culprit?

是否有任何特定產品是罪魁禍首？

And do you think the dynamics here are unique to AstraZeneca, because this has not been mentioned by other companies?

你認為這裡的動態是阿斯利康獨有的，因為其他公司沒有提到過嗎？

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

The second question is on what date in May does the [AZLP] option two window open?

第二個問題是 [AZLP] 選項二窗口在 5 月的哪一天打開？

And given that the window, I assume, could open as soon as next week, I am a bit surprised that AstraZeneca hasn't made the decision yet as to whether to exercise.

考慮到這個窗口，我認為，最快下週就會打開，我對阿斯利康尚未決定是否行使感到有點驚訝。

Is there any information you're waiting for that could be forthcoming in the next week that would help you make the decision?

您是否正在等待下周可能會提供的任何信息來幫助您做出決定？

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So jut let me -- Ed, I don't know if you'd like to comment on the coverage gap accrual.

所以讓我——埃德，我不知道你是否想對覆蓋缺口的累積發表評論。

Yes, clearly that's an area where it's difficult to estimate what patient behavior will be once they reach the coverage gap; whether they take advantage of the opportunity to get the discounted branded product, or whether they are motivated to go to a generic alternative to capture even lower out-of-pocket exposure.

是的，很明顯，這是一個很難估計患者達到覆蓋缺口後的行為的領域；他們是否利用機會獲得打折的品牌產品，或者他們是否有動力去購買通用替代品以獲取更低的自付費用曝光率。

So like any managed care adjustments that we do in our revenue calculations, you make some assumptions about what that utilization will be.

因此，就像我們在收入計算中所做的任何管理式醫療調整一樣，您會對利用率做出一些假設。

And then you're looking through the rear view mirror as you get actual utilization data from either the managed care plans or, in this case, the Government.

然後，當您從管理式醫療計劃或在本例中為政府獲得實際使用數據時，您正在通過後視鏡查看。

And then you look at what you've already provided for and whether you've got to make either a true up one way or the other, in this case.

然後你看看你已經提供了什麼，在這種情況下，你是否必須以一種方式或另一種方式進行調整。

So based upon the whole of 2011, we saw a slightly bigger exposure to the Medicare D coverage gap and so we had to make a catch up provision in Q1.

因此，基於整個 2011 年，我們看到 Medicare D 覆蓋缺口的風險略大，因此我們不得不在第一季度進行追趕準備金。

As you might expect, the products that are probably the biggest drivers are now Crestor and Nexium, because they're the big primary care products that have a utilization in that patient population.

正如您所料，現在可能是最大驅動因素的產品是 Crestor 和 Nexium，因為它們是在該患者群體中具有利用率的大型初級保健產品。

Ed, thanks for that.

埃德，謝謝你。

And Steve, in terms of the Merck situation, it starts in May.

而史蒂夫，就默克公司的情況而言，它從五月開始。

I don't know exactly which date in May.

我不知道具體是五月份的哪一天。

But the window is for a six-month period May to October.

但窗口期為 5 月至 10 月的六個月。

And I think I shared with you the evaluation of the 2012 option in my remarks.

我想我在發言中與大家分享了對 2012 年選項的評估。

So I can't elaborate upon that, simply to say that we're going to weigh up our decision, balancing the fact that, from a pure strategic freedom perspective, we'd obviously prefer to exit the arrangement at the earliest time, and that would be 2012.

所以我不能詳細說明，只是說我們將權衡我們的決定，平衡這樣一個事實，即從純粹的戰略自由角度來看，我們顯然更願意儘早退出安排，並且那將是2012年。

But, ultimately, that decision's going to be based upon how we weigh up the value.

但是，最終，該決定將基於我們如何權衡價值。

So more to come on that, Steve, and we'll obviously keep you informed as we go forward.

史蒂夫，還有更多事情要做，我們顯然會在前進的過程中隨時通知您。

I think we've probably got time for one more question.

我想我們可能還有時間再問一個問題。

And we've got Tim on the call and Tim, over to you.

蒂姆接聽電話，蒂姆接聽你的電話。

This is Tim Anderson of Sanford Bernstein.

我是桑福德伯恩斯坦的蒂姆安德森。

With the change up in management in the Board, I'm wondering if you can assure us that, whatever AstraZeneca's strategy is going forward, that the dividend is absolutely safe and that no business development will be pursued that puts this at risk.

隨著董事會管理層的變動，我想知道您是否可以向我們保證，無論阿斯利康的未來戰略如何，股息都是絕對安全的，並且不會進行任何業務發展，從而使這一點面臨風險。

And then on Symbicort sales in ex-US markets, your press release said that 60% of the sales decline was due to Japan.

然後關於 Symbicort 在美國以外市場的銷售，你們的新聞稿說 60% 的銷售下降是由於日本。

But I'm wondering what the other 40% was due to.

但我想知道另外 40% 的原因是什麼。

Then on KOMBOGLYZE, if I'm not mistaken that product is being sold in the US, but in Europe your press release says they won't launch until later because of manufacturing issues and I'm wondering if you can add some clarity there?

然後在 KOMBOGLYZE 上，如果我沒記錯的話，該產品在美國銷售，但在歐洲，你們的新聞稿說由於製造問題，它們要晚些時候才會推出，我想知道你們是否可以在那裡增加一些清晰度？

Certainly.

當然。

So first of all, yes, we're absolutely committed to our progressive dividend policy.

所以首先，是的，我們絕對致力於我們的漸進式股息政策。

And, as I mentioned in my earlier remarks, in terms of investment to drive future growth and value through business development and bolt on, that's something we weigh up against the share repurchase program, dividend is an absolutely core part of our proposition to our investors.

而且，正如我在之前的發言中提到的那樣，就通過業務發展推動未來增長和價值的投資而言，這是我們與股票回購計劃進行權衡的事情，股息絕對是我們向投資者提出的建議的核心部分.

So our commitment to the progressive dividend policy remains absolute.

因此，我們對漸進式股息政策的承諾仍然是絕對的。

In terms of the Symbicort decline, Ed, do you want just to pick up, because obviously 60% was that movement in the stocking in Japan.

就 Symbicort 下降而言，Ed，你想回升嗎，因為顯然 60% 是日本庫存中的這種變化。

Do you want to just call out any other key items?

您想只調出任何其他關鍵項目嗎？

Yes, it was down year on year in Western Europe as well, and that's a combination of volume in some markets where you've got the Fosta product taking a better share.

是的，西歐的銷量也同比下降，這是一些市場的銷量組合，在這些市場中，Fosta 產品佔據了更大的份額。

But also we don't usually attribute any individual price intervention to a product.

但我們通常也不會將任何單獨的價格干預歸因於產品。

But the European pricing interventions in Europe, in general, hit your larger products, and Symbicort's obviously one of our larger products in the European market.

但總體而言，歐洲對歐洲的定價干預會打擊你們較大的產品，而信必可顯然是我們在歐洲市場上較大的產品之一。

Okay, well, thank you.

好的，好的，謝謝。

And Karl, do you want to pick up the technical issue on KOMBIGLYZE in Europe?

Karl，你想解決歐洲 KOMBIGLYZE 的技術問題嗎？

So actually we have two different products here.

所以實際上我們這裡有兩種不同的產品。

So in the US we are selling KOMBIGLYZE XR, which is a once-daily extended release combination, a fixed dose combination, and that we launched successfully in January last year.

因此，我們在美國銷售 KOMBIGLYZE XR，這是一種每日一次的緩釋組合，一種固定劑量組合，我們於去年 1 月成功推出。

Whereas in the product which is approved in Europe in November last year is immediate release product called KOMBIGLYZE.

而去年 11 月在歐洲獲得批准的產品是名為 KOMBIGLYZE 的速釋產品。

And here we have said that the launch is now expected in 2013, due to some technical manufacturing issues.

在這裡我們已經說過，由於一些技術製造問題，現在預計將在 2013 年推出。

And the responsible company behind the production here is BMS, so they might be able to explain it better than we are.

而這裡生產背後的負責公司是 BMS，所以他們可能比我們能更好地解釋它。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

I think we've just about reached the end of the call in terms of time.

我認為就時間而言，我們即將結束電話會議。

We had two further email questions coming in, which we didn't get to, so let me just try and deal with these quickly and to make sure we've addressed your questions.

我們收到了另外兩個電子郵件問題，我們沒有回答，所以讓我嘗試快速處理這些問題，以確保我們已經解決了您的問題。

The first came from Luisa Hector at Credit Suisse, who asked us to expand on Brilinta.

第一個來自瑞士信貸的 Luisa Hector，她要求我們擴展 Brilinta。

The German hospital starts translating to ongoing prescriptions once patients are out of hospital or could they be switched to generic Plavix?

一旦患者出院，德國醫院就開始將其轉化為正在進行的處方，或者他們能否改用仿製藥 Plavix？

So Ed, do you want to pick that up very swiftly?

所以 Ed，你想很快把它拿起來嗎？

Yes, we're clearly now starting to see the outpatient utilization now reflect the inroads that we've made in the inpatients' acute market share.

是的，我們現在清楚地開始看到門診病人的利用率現在反映了我們在住院病人的急性市場份額方面取得的進展。

So we are not seeing any, as far as I'm aware, any material leakage of hospital starts not being persistent on Brilinta outpatient therapy.

因此，據我所知，我們沒有看到任何醫院的材料洩漏開始在 Brilinta 門診治療中持續存在。

James, sorry you had something to add to that?

詹姆斯，抱歉你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, I think it's worth reiterating.

是的，我認為值得重申。

The PLATO data is impressive and it's particularly impressive when you look at the separation of the mortality benefit, which actually increases over the 12 months.

PLATO 數據令人印象深刻，當您查看死亡率收益的分離時尤其令人印象深刻，它實際上在 12 個月內有所增加。

So the benefits of using Brilinta are seen, in particular, as you progress with the therapy and, of course, that's going to apply to the patients in the outpatient setting.

所以使用 Brilinta 的好處是顯而易見的，特別是隨著治療的進展，當然，這將適用於門診患者。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And Luisa had a second question, which was, Ed, how many plans in the US are reimbursing Brilinta in percentage of second tier?

Luisa 有第二個問題，Ed，美國有多少計劃按二線的百分比報銷 Brilinta？

Yes, I don't have a precise allocation.

是的，我沒有精確的分配。

We have unrestricted access, I believe, to over 60% of the cover of lives.

我相信，我們可以不受限制地訪問超過 60% 的生命封面。

I think we have a fairly good representation in Tier 2 but we do have some Tier 3 access as part of that as well.

我認為我們在第 2 層有相當好的代表性，但我們也確實有一些第 3 層訪問作為其中的一部分。

And then finally I had a question from Simon King of FirstWord Pharma.

最後，FirstWord Pharma 的 Simon King 提出了一個問題。

Simon's asking, reflecting on the fact that Crestor's holding up impressively against generic Lipitor, and asks what our projections are once the US 180-day exclusivity period expires and additional versions of generic atorvastatin become available?

西蒙問，考慮到 Crestor 對仿製藥立普妥的支持令人印象深刻這一事實，並詢問一旦美國 180 天的獨占期到期並且仿製藥阿托伐他汀的其他版本上市後，我們的預測是什麼？

I think I'd reiterate the comments we made on the call.

我想我會重申我們在電話會議上發表的評論。

I think Crestor's proven itself to be very resilient to the entry of generic atorvastatin and I think we feel that that reflects the very clear positioning that we've established for Crestor in the market as the right treatment choice for high-risk patients.

我認為 Crestor 證明自己對仿製藥阿托伐他汀的進入非常有彈性，我認為我們認為這反映了我們在市場上為 Crestor 確立的非常明確的定位，即高風險患者的正確治療選擇。

And I went through the dynamics that we've been experiencing very much in line with our expectations.

我經歷了我們一直在經歷的動態，非常符合我們的期望。

There will come a bit more competition, clearly, when we've got a broader set of generics available.

顯然，當我們有更廣泛的仿製藥可用時，競爭會更加激烈。

And I think where we'll see that is more likely as we come into the contracting round for 2013.

我認為當我們進入 2013 年的合同輪次時，我們更有可能看到這種情況。

We continue to believe that Crestor has a very important role to play in statins in the marketplace.

我們仍然相信 Crestor 在市場上的他汀類藥物中扮演著非常重要的角色。

Just one finally, any specific, also from Simon, any specific challenges in Western Europe regarding pricing and reimbursement?

最後只有一個，同樣來自西蒙，西歐在定價和報銷方面有什麼具體挑戰嗎？

I think that was probably for Crestor but, more generally, Simon, the challenges in pricing and reimbursement in Europe are predominately concentrated in those markets where we are seeing budget deficit issues to be addressed and where governments are looking at healthcare and medicines as a particular area where they may be able to achieve savings.

我認為這可能適用於 Crestor，但更普遍的是，西蒙，歐洲定價和報銷方面的挑戰主要集中在我們看到預算赤字問題需要解決以及政府將醫療保健和藥品視為特定市場的市場他們可以節省開支的領域。

And that's been something that we've seen stepped up over the last few months.

這是我們在過去幾個月中看到的事情。

So that probably, I think, covers all of the questions.

我認為，這可能涵蓋了所有問題。

Our apologies that we had some technical issues on the call.

很抱歉我們在通話中遇到了一些技術問題。

I hope we did get to all of your questions but, if not, I'm sure that the IR team would be delighted to take them, if you can get in touch with them.

我希望我們確實回答了您的所有問題，但如果沒有，我相信 IR 團隊會很樂意接受這些問題，前提是您能與他們取得聯繫。

So let me bring the call to a close.

所以讓我結束電話會議。

Just a few final comments really.

真的只是一些最後的評論。

It's been a tough quarter, as we face the challenges of generic competition and government action on pricing.

這是一個艱難的季度，因為我們面臨仿製藥競爭和政府定價行動的挑戰。

But we continue to invest very hard behind brands where we see, and markets, where we see growth potential.

但我們繼續大力投資我們看到的品牌和我們看到增長潛力的市場。

We've got a very full portfolio of brands, such as Crestor, Symbicort, Seroquel XR, Faslodex, Iressa, Onglyza, FORXIGA, where Symbicort -- where we can see strong growth and we're investing hard behind them.

我們擁有非常完整的品牌組合，例如 Crestor、Symbicort、Seroquel XR、Faslodex、Iressa、Onglyza、FORXIGA，其中 Symbicort——我們可以看到強勁的增長，我們正在大力投資它們。

We're continuing to make progress to improve productivity in our research and development.

我們正在繼續取得進展，以提高我們的研發生產力。

We've made significant change, and I'm sure there's more effort to come.

我們已經做出了重大改變，我相信還會有更多的努力。

And, thirdly, we've really seen real progress on our business development agenda in the last month and I'm sure there'll be -- we're keen to see more of that to come.

第三，我們在上個月確實看到了我們的業務發展議程取得了真正的進展，我相信會有 - 我們渴望看到更多的進展。

So significant activity in the Company to really drive growth into the future and, of course, our core pre-R&D margins remain, notwithstanding the difficult position, up there above the top end of our guidance range in the first quarter, with cash flow remaining very resilient and a clear commitment to our cash returns to our shareholders.

公司如此重要的活動真正推動了未來的增長，當然，儘管處境艱難，但我們的核心研發前利潤率仍然高於我們第一季度指導範圍的上限，現金流量仍然存在非常有彈性，並明確承諾我們對股東的現金回報。

And, with that, we'll bring the call to a close.

並且，我們將結束通話。

Thanks very much for the questions and good day to all of you.

非常感謝大家的問題和美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today.

女士們，先生們，我們今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may all disconnect.

你們都可以斷開連接。