AXT, Inc. (AXTI) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT’s third-quarter 2026 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer; and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call.

各位下午好，歡迎參加 AXT 2026 年第三季財務電話會議。今天主持會議的是執行長 Morris Young 博士，以及財務長 Gary Fischer。此外，業務發展副總裁 Tim Bettles 也將參與問答環節。

My name is Tracy, and I will be your coordinator today. I would like to now turn the call over to Leslie Green, investor relations for AXT. Leslie, please go ahead.

我叫 Tracy，今天將擔任各位的會議協調人。現在我想把電話交給 AXT 的投資人關係 Leslie Green。Leslie，請開始。

Thank you, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing and receipt of export permits, our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei, in Hong Kong, the closing of the intended investment into Tongmei by a leading Asia-based asset manager, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity.

謝謝你，Tracy，各位下午好。在開始之前，我想提醒各位，在本次電話會議過程中（包括回覆各位提問時的評論），我們將提供預測，或就若干事項作出其他前瞻性陳述，包括但不限於：公司未來的財務表現、市場狀況與趨勢、使用在我們基板上製造之晶片或元件的新興應用、我們的產品組合、全球經濟與政治情勢（包括貿易關稅及進出口限制）、取得中國出口許可證的能力、出口許可證的時程與取得情況、我們計畫將子公司同美（Tongmei）在香港上市、由一家亞洲領先資產管理公司對同美之擬議投資的交割、我們在後續季度提升訂單的能力、控制成本與費用、改善製造良率與效率，或運用我們的製造產能。

We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management’s current expectations, are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China.

我們提醒各位注意，此類陳述涉及未來事件，係基於管理層目前的預期，並受制於可能導致實際事件或結果出現重大差異的風險與不確定性。除前述事項外，這些不確定性與風險還包括但不限於：我們部分持股之供應鏈公司之財務表現，以及中國日益嚴格的環境法規。

In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company’s periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through October 29, 2028. I also want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2026. This information is available on the investor relations portion of our website at axt.com.

除剛才提及或可能在本次會議中討論的因素外，我們也請各位參閱公司向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的定期報告。這些報告可透過我們網站上的連結線上取得，並包含更多關於可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期出現重大差異之風險因素的資訊。本次電話會議將於 axt.com 網站提供至 2028 年 10 月 29 日。我也要說明，今天收盤後不久，我們已發布新聞稿，公告 2026 年第三季的財務結果。相關資訊可於 axt.com 網站的投資人關係專區取得。

I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our third quarter results. Gary?

現在我想把電話交給 Gary Fischer，請他回顧我們第三季的業績。Gary？

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Our financial results highlight the continuing inflection in our business trajectory in the early stages of a multi-year growth phase for AXT. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was $73.4 million. This is an increase of 54% from $47.6 million in the second quarter of 2026, and an increase of 162% from $28.0 million in the third quarter of 2025.

謝謝你，Leslie，也向各位致上下午好。我們的財務結果凸顯了 AXT 在多年成長階段初期，業務發展軌跡持續出現轉折點。2026 年第三季營收為 7,340 萬美元，較 2026 年第二季的 4,760 萬美元成長 54%，較 2025 年第三季的 2,800 萬美元成長 162%。

To break down our Q3 2026 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide was $54.3 million, primarily from data center applications. Gallium arsenide was $9.1 million. Germanium substrates were $344,000. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material companies in Q3 was $9.7 million. The top five customers generated approximately 35% of total revenue, and one customer was over the 10% level.

為各位按產品類別拆解 2026 年第三季營收：磷化銦為 5,430 萬美元，主要來自資料中心應用。砷化鎵為 910 萬美元。鍺基板為 34.4 萬美元。最後，我們合併報表中的原材料公司在第三季營收為 970 萬美元。前五大客戶合計約占總營收的 35%，其中有一位客戶占比超過 10%。

Gross margin showed continued gain in the third quarter, driven by an increase in total volume and a favorable product mix. In addition, market prices for indium phosphide have increased, and a shift from 3-inch to 4-inch wafers has also contributed. Morris will give more color on this in a moment.

第三季毛利率持續改善，主要受總出貨量增加與有利的產品組合所帶動。此外，磷化銦的市場價格上升，以及由 3 吋晶圓轉向 4 吋晶圓，也有所貢獻。Morris 稍後會就此提供更多說明。

Non-GAAP gross margin was 56.1%, compared with 45.0% gross margin in Q2, and 22.4% gross margin in Q3 of 2025. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the third quarter is 56.0%, compared with 44.9% in Q2 and 22.3% in Q3 2025.

非 GAAP 毛利率為 56.1%，相較之下第二季毛利率為 45.0%，而 2025 年第三季為 22.4%。對於偏好以 GAAP 基礎追蹤業績的各位，第三季 GAAP 毛利率為 56.0%，相較第二季為 44.9%，2025 年第三季為 22.3%。

Moving to OpEx, our total non-GAAP operating expense in Q3 was $11.7 million, compared with $10.2 million in Q2 and $6.7 million in Q3 of 2025. On a GAAP basis, total OpEx in Q3 was $12.7 million, compared with $10.9 million in Q2 of 2026, and $7.3 million in Q3 of 2025.

接著看營業費用（OpEx），第三季非 GAAP 營業費用總額為 1,170 萬美元，相較第二季為 1,020 萬美元，2025 年第三季為 670 萬美元。以 GAAP 基礎計算，第三季營業費用總額為 1,270 萬美元，相較 2026 年第二季為 1,090 萬美元，2025 年第三季為 730 萬美元。

Our non-GAAP operating profit for the third quarter of 2026 was $29.5 million, or 40.2% of revenue, compared with a non-GAAP operating profit in Q2 of 2026 of $11.2 million, and a non-GAAP operating loss of $384,000 in Q3 of 2025.

2026 年第三季非 GAAP 營業利益為 2,950 萬美元，占營收 40.2%；相較之下，2026 年第二季非 GAAP 營業利益為 1,120 萬美元，而 2025 年第三季非 GAAP 營業損失為 38.4 萬美元。

For reference, our GAAP operating line for the third quarter of 2026 was a profit of $28.4 million, or 38.7% of revenue, compared with an operating profit of $10.4 million in Q2 and an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3 of 2025.

供各位參考，2026 年第三季 GAAP 營業項目為獲利 2,840 萬美元，占營收 38.7%；相較第二季營業利益為 1,040 萬美元，而 2025 年第三季營業損失為 110 萬美元。

Non-operating income and expense and other items below the line of the operating line for the third quarter of 2026 was a net loss of $2.7 million. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today.

2026 年第三季在營業利益線以下的非營業收入與費用及其他項目，合計為淨損失 270 萬美元。詳細內容可見於我們今日新聞稿所附的損益表（P&L）。

We are pleased to report a non-GAAP net profit of $26.8 million, or $0.41 per diluted share. This compares with a non-GAAP net profit of $11.9 million, or $0.19 per share, in the second quarter of 2026. Non-GAAP net loss in Q3 of 2025 was $1.2 million, or $0.03 a share.

我們很高興報告，非 GAAP 淨利為 2,680 萬美元，稀釋後每股盈餘為 0.41 美元。相較之下，2026 年第二季非 GAAP 淨利為 1,190 萬美元，每股盈餘為 0.19 美元。2025 年第三季非 GAAP 淨損失為 120 萬美元，每股虧損為 0.03 美元。

On a GAAP basis, net profit in Q3 was $25.7 million or $0.39 per diluted share. By comparison, net profit was $11.1 million or $0.17 per share in the second quarter of 2026. GAAP net loss in Q3 of 2025 was $1.9 million or $0.04 per share. The weighted average diluted shares outstanding in Q3 was 65.9 million. Cash equivalents and investments increased by $77 million to $825.9 million as of September 30. By comparison, at June 30, it was $748.8 million. Accounts receivable increased by only $3 million.

以 GAAP 基礎計算，第三季淨利為 2,570 萬美元，稀釋後每股盈餘為 0.39 美元。相較之下，2026 年第二季淨利為 1,110 萬美元，每股盈餘為 0.17 美元。2025 年第三季 GAAP 淨損失為 190 萬美元，每股虧損為 0.04 美元。第三季加權平均稀釋在外流通股數為 6,590 萬股。截至 9 月 30 日，約當現金及投資增加 7,700 萬美元至 8.259 億美元。相較之下，截至 6 月 30 日為 7.488 億美元。應收帳款僅增加 300 萬美元。

In Q3, DSO improved to 49 days as a result of multiple customer prepayments. During Q3, we signed a long-term supply agreement with Lumentum. Under the terms of the agreement, we received a prepayment for wafers of $43.5 million.

第三季因多位客戶預付款項，DSO 改善至 49 天。第三季期間，我們與 Lumentum 簽署了一項長期供應協議。依協議條款，我們收到 4,350 萬美元的晶圓預付款。

This type of agreement with significant upfront cash is an additional signpost regarding the important use of indium phosphide for high-speed optical data transmission required in the AI data centers. This prepayment is posted on our financial statements as a liability and will be converted to revenue as we ship products against the agreements.

此類具有可觀前期現金的協議，進一步顯示磷化銦在 AI 資料中心所需的高速光學資料傳輸中的重要用途。該筆預付款在我們的財務報表中列為負債，並將在我們依協議出貨產品時轉列為營收。

Depreciation and amortization in the third quarter was $2.6 million. Total stock comp was $1.1 million. Net inventory was up by approximately $7.4 million in the third quarter. This concludes the discussion of our financials.

第三季折舊與攤銷為 260 萬美元。股票酬勞總額為 110 萬美元。第三季淨存貨約增加 740 萬美元。以上為我們財務狀況的討論。

Before I turn the call over to Morris, I want to note that yesterday we announced that our majority-owned subsidiary, Tongmei, has entered into a definitive agreement for private equity financing, selling its own shares, not AXTI shares, to provide ren RMB directly into its operations.

在我把電話會議交給 Morris 之前，我想補充說明：昨天我們宣布，我們的控股子公司 Tongmei 已就私募股權融資簽訂最終協議，出售的是 Tongmei 自身股份（非 AXTI 股份），以便將人民幣資金直接注入其營運。

This is an exciting milestone for Tongmei as it works towards a public offering on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Funds will be used to advance capacity expansion for indium phosphide wafers at a time when demand for these wafers is outpacing supply. Proceeds will also be used to increase capacity at our raw material companies in China.

這對 Tongmei 而言是一個令人振奮的里程碑，因其正朝在香港證券交易所公開上市邁進。資金將用於推進磷化銦晶圓產能擴充，尤其在目前此類晶圓需求超過供給之際。所得款項亦將用於提升我們在中國的原材料公司產能。

Assuming the maximum amount of the investment at $545 million, AXT will maintain control of Tongmei with approximately 73.4% ownership, down approximately 12.1% following the completion of the transaction. This transaction turns the spotlight on Tongmei, reflecting its substance and generating momentum towards the future.

若以最高投資金額 5.45 億美元計算，交易完成後 AXT 仍將維持對 Tongmei 的控制權，持股約 73.4%，較交易完成前約下降 12.1%。此交易使市場聚焦 Tongmei，反映其實質價值，並為未來發展帶來動能。

Finally, as previously stated, Tongmei is proceeding with its efforts towards a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. We continue to believe that an IPO in China is highly beneficial as expanding both the substrate and raw material capacity in China is the most efficient way to support the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out.

最後，如先前所述，Tongmei 正持續推進在香港證券交易所上市的相關工作。我們仍然相信在中國進行 IPO 具有高度效益，因為在中國擴充基板與原材料產能，是支援快速演進的 AI 基礎建設建置最有效率的方式。

Okay, thank you. With that, now I’ll turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?

好的，謝謝。接下來，我將把電話會議交給 Morris Young 博士，請他回顧我們的業務與市場。Morris？

Thank you, Gary. This is a pivotal and exciting period for AXT. As Gary noted, our business has reached an inflection point driven by exceptional strong customer demand for our indium phosphide material, which seems to increase with every review cycle. We entered 2026 with a commitment to double our indium phosphide capacity. I’m pleased to report that we surpassed that goal in August and are continuing our expansion as an ongoing effort.

謝謝你，Gary。對 AXT 而言，這是一個關鍵且令人振奮的時期。正如 Gary 所提到的，我們的業務已達到拐點，主要受惠於客戶對我們磷化銦材料的異常強勁需求，而且似乎在每個檢視週期都持續增加。我們在 2026 年初承諾將磷化銦產能加倍。我很高興報告，我們已於 8 月超越該目標，並將持續把擴產作為一項長期進行的工作。

We are currently in the design phase of converting a newly acquired adjacent building for indium phosphide production, with work expected to begin within the next several months. Even with more significant event, our revenue opportunity in indium phosphide has more than quadrupled in 2026 from where we were coming into the year. We were expecting substantial additional expansion also in 2027.

我們目前正處於設計階段，將新取得的相鄰建築改造為磷化銦生產用途，預計在未來幾個月內開始施工。更重要的是，我們在磷化銦方面的營收機會於 2026 年已較年初水準增加逾四倍。我們也預期在 2027 年還會有可觀的進一步擴產。

Three key developments are fueling this progress. First, as I mentioned, we’re aggressively adding capacity to address the massive market opportunity. Second, new proprietary crystal growth furnace designs are delivering meaningful gains in manufacturing productivity and output. Third, customers are transitioning to large diameter substrates and higher value products. Together, these developments are creating a step change in our revenue potential.

有三項關鍵發展正在推動這項進展。第一，如我所述，我們正積極增加產能，以掌握龐大的市場機會。第二，新型專有晶體生長爐設計正帶來顯著的製造生產力與產出提升。第三，客戶正轉向大直徑基板與更高價值產品。綜合而言，這些發展正在為我們的營收潛力帶來階躍式提升。

We have well surpassed our historical record levels for both indium phosphide revenues and corporate revenues. We are in a brand-new territory. With backlog now above $500 million, including long-term multi-year agreements, short-term contracts of less than 12 months, and spot purchase orders. Demand remains ahead of supply, even as we accelerate the pace of our capacity addition.

我們已大幅超越磷化銦營收與公司整體營收的歷史最高紀錄。我們正進入全新的領域。目前在手訂單已超過 5 億美元，包含長期多年期協議、少於 12 個月的短期合約，以及現貨採購訂單。即使我們加快擴產步伐，需求仍持續領先供給。

According to AI data center markets, the need for optical connectivity is growing rapidly. As hyperscalers deploy increasing GPU dense systems, they require faster, more powerful, efficient photonics to move enormous volume of data. To date, the transition to 800G and 1.6T transceiver modules is generating strong demand for indium phosphide-based lasers and detectors that enable these high-performance optical links.

就 AI 資料中心市場而言，對光學互連的需求正在快速成長。隨著超大規模業者部署更高 GPU 密度的系統，他們需要更快、更強大且更高效率的光子技術，以傳輸龐大的資料量。迄今，向 800G 與 1.6T 收發模組的轉換，正帶動對磷化銦基雷射與探測器的強勁需求，這些元件可實現高效能光鏈路。

Looking further ahead, the industry is moving towards near-packaged optics and co-packaged optics, which should expand the role of our material even further. Taken together, these developments support a sustained build-out of high-density optical infrastructure and multi-year growth opportunities for our indium phosphide business.

展望更長期，產業正朝向近封裝光學（near-packaged optics）與共封裝光學（co-packaged optics）發展，這應會進一步擴大我們材料的角色。綜合來看，這些發展支持高密度光學基礎設施的持續建置，並為我們的磷化銦業務帶來多年期成長機會。

As many of you are aware, the competitive landscape for high-quality indium phosphide is limited to just a few players, due primarily to the very high technical barriers to entry and the ongoing difficulty and sensitivity of crystal growth and proprietary processes technologies. Among our peers, we believe AXT is in the strongest position to scale our business for massive industry growth while continuing to meet the most stringent performance requirement for high-speed data center AI connectivity.

如各位所知，高品質磷化銦的競爭格局僅限於少數幾家業者，主要原因在於極高的技術進入門檻，以及晶體生長與專有製程技術長期存在的難度與敏感性。在同業之中，我們認為 AXT 具備最強的條件，在因應產業大幅成長的同時擴大業務規模，並持續滿足高速資料中心 AI 互連最嚴苛的效能要求。

Case in point, we continue to make great strides in development of our 6-inch indium phosphide capability. Our 6-inch lines are now moving to pilot production line status with productivity increasing steadily. We believe this further differentiates us from our field of competitors and puts us in a leadership position for next-generation devices. I want to thank our customers who are partnering with us throughout this process. We’re excited to support them as we move forward with our own capabilities.

具體而言，我們在 6 吋磷化銦能力的開發上持續取得重大進展。我們的 6 吋產線目前正邁向試量產線階段，生產力穩步提升。我們相信這將進一步使我們在競爭者中脫穎而出，並讓我們在下一代元件方面處於領先地位。我要感謝在此過程中與我們合作的客戶。隨著我們持續推進自身能力建置，我們也很期待能支持他們向前發展。

Looking at demand by region, the large-scale build-out of AI infrastructure in the US, as well as in the significant capital investment plan for cloud services and AI platform providers, is driving strong demand for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers and high-speed photodetectors. With developing demand for CW lasers for scale-up applications, we believe our material are already deployed across multiple US hyperscalers, and we expect adoptions among the customers to continue to expand.

從區域需求來看，美國大規模的 AI 基礎建設建置，以及雲端服務與 AI 平台供應商的大型資本投資計畫，正帶動對 EML 與矽光子（silicon photonics）光收發器及高速光電探測器的強勁需求。隨著用於擴展應用的 CW 雷射需求逐步形成，我們相信我們的材料已部署於多家美國超大規模客戶之中，且預期客戶採用將持續擴大。

China is also emerging as an important growth market as it accelerates investment across the AI supply chain. Our revenue into China indium phosphide-based laser market increased strongly again in Q3, and all of our customers there remain on allocation. This momentum reflects China’s growing role in building AI infrastructure for the global market and represents a compelling opportunity for AXT, particularly because shipments within China do not require an export license.

中國也正加速在 AI 供應鏈各環節的投資，逐步成為重要的成長市場。我們對中國磷化銦基雷射市場的營收在第三季再度大幅成長，且我們在當地的所有客戶仍處於配給供貨狀態。這股動能反映中國在為全球市場建置 AI 基礎設施方面日益重要的角色，並為 AXT 帶來極具吸引力的機會，特別是因為在中國境內出貨不需要出口許可證。

Turning to gallium arsenide. Several of our key customers are now showcasing slow and wide VCSEL lasers for data center applications based on both 6 and 8-inch gallium arsenide. We believe this can be exciting future market for AXT, and we are in a pole position as the world leader in both 6 and 8-inch gallium arsenide substrates.

接著談砷化鎵。我們的幾家關鍵客戶目前正展示用於資料中心應用的慢速、寬光束 VCSEL 雷射，這些產品同時採用 6 吋與 8 吋砷化鎵。我們相信這對 AXT 而言可能是令人振奮的未來市場，而我們作為全球 6 吋與 8 吋砷化鎵基板的領導者，正處於極具優勢的位置。

In Q3, demand for both semi-insulating and semi-conducting material across wireless devices, industry robotics, and data center lasers applications grew sequentially from the prior quarter. We do expect several of them to be seasonally down in Q4, but we continue to see opportunity for market share expansion in the coming year for our gallium arsenide substrates.

在第三季，無線裝置、工業機器人以及資料中心雷射等應用領域中，半絕緣與半導體材料的需求相較前一季呈現季增。我們確實預期其中有幾項在第四季會出現季節性下滑，但我們仍持續看到在未來一年，我們的砷化鎵基板有擴大市占率的機會。

Finally, our raw material business continued to be highly strategic to our growth plan. Our subsidiary, Jinmei, is now refining high-purity indium, which gives us direct control of a guaranteed supply of yet another critical material for our indium phosphide substrates. We are also investing to help JinMei to expand their capacity so that AXT can depend on them for our growth. JinMei will continue to provide a meaningful portion of our raw material requirements. We will continue to invest in our portfolio as we believe it is a major competitive differentiator.

最後，我們的原材料業務仍然是我們成長計畫中高度策略性的環節。我們的子公司金美（Jinmei）目前正在精煉高純度銦，這讓我們能直接掌控另一項關鍵材料的穩定供應，用於我們的磷化銦基板。我們也正在投資協助金美擴充產能，使 AXT 能夠依賴其支撐我們的成長。金美將持續提供我們原材料需求中相當有意義的一部分。我們將持續投資於我們的產品組合，因為我們相信這是重要的競爭差異化因素。

In summary, AXT is operating from a position of growing strength at an important moment for our industry. Demand for indium phosphide continues to exceed supply, and we are moving quickly to expand our capacity, improve our productivity, and advance large diameter substrates.

總結而言，AXT 正在產業關鍵時刻，以日益增強的實力運營。磷化銦的需求持續超過供給，我們正迅速擴充產能、提升生產力，並推進大尺寸基板。

We always believe that indium phosphide will represent a big opportunity for AXT. But I can honestly say we did not expect it to be so big. We are happy to see it, and we are also humbled by it. Through the years, we have created a great product to serve the market. As I have said, we are stepping up to embrace this massive opportunity. We are off to a fantastic start and remain laser-focused on execution. We believe we are well-positioned for transformational growth as our market continues its extraordinary trajectory.

我們一直相信磷化銦將為 AXT 帶來重大機會。但我可以坦白說，我們沒預期它會這麼大。我們很高興看到這一點，同時也深感謙卑。多年來，我們打造了優秀的產品來服務市場。如我所說，我們正在加速投入以把握這個龐大的機會。我們已經有了非常出色的開局，並將持續高度專注於執行。我們相信，隨著市場延續其非凡的成長軌跡，我們已做好準備迎接具轉型意義的成長。

With that, I will turn the call back to Gary for our fourth quarter guidance. Gary?

接下來，我把電話交回給 Gary，請他說明我們第四季的財測指引。Gary？

Thank you, Morris. As of today, we have approximately $90 million in revenue that can be realized in Q4 across our substrate product lines and raw materials, for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which a permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q4.

謝謝你，Morris。截至今天，我們在基板產品線與原材料方面，約有 9,000 萬美元的營收可在第四季實現；這些項目要麼我們已取得出貨許可，要麼不需要許可。我們對於在第四季認列這些營收具有高度信心。

We have delivered strong gross margin improvement over the past several quarters and are very pleased with the progress. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to revenue mix by product, absorption of fixed costs, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency.

過去幾個季度，我們的毛利率持續顯著改善，我們對此進展非常滿意。後續能否進一步改善，取決於多項因素，包括總營收及其對產品營收組合的影響、固定成本的吸收程度，以及我們持續推動更佳製造效率的能力。

With regards to operating expense, we expect that it will be approximately $13 million in Q4 on a non-GAAP basis and approximately $14 million on a GAAP basis. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.57 to $0.59, and GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.56 to $0.58. We estimate the share count for Q4 will be approximately 66.1 million shares.

就營業費用而言，我們預期第四季在非 GAAP 基礎上約為 1,300 萬美元，在 GAAP 基礎上約為 1,400 萬美元。綜合上述因素，我們認為非 GAAP 淨利將落在 0.57 至 0.59 美元區間，GAAP 淨利將落在 0.56 至 0.58 美元區間。我們估計第四季的流通股數約為 6,610 萬股。

Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We will be glad to answer your questions now. Tracy?

好的，我們的事先準備發言到此結束。現在我們很樂意回答各位的問題。Tracy？

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Richard Shannon, Craig-Hallum.

Richard Shannon，Craig-Hallum。

Well, great. Thanks, Morris, Gary, and Tim for taking my questions, and I will congratulate you guys again on another very strong quarter. Keep up the great work here.

很好。謝謝 Morris、Gary 和 Tim 回答我的問題，我也要再次恭喜各位又交出一個非常強勁的季度表現。請繼續保持這樣的出色成果。

My first question is on gross margins. We have had a discussion the last few conference calls, particularly the last one, about how high they could go, and you were suggesting they could get above 50%, and you cleared that significantly here.

我的第一個問題是關於毛利率。在過去幾次法說會，尤其是上一次，我們討論過毛利率可能有多高，你們當時表示可能會超過 50%，而這次你們明顯大幅超越了這個水準。

Gary, you gave us a little bit of language here on how to think about it going forward. But I did not have enough time to run through your guidance through a model to see where this might be aiming here. So I would love for you to discuss gross margins, particularly in the context of what is built into your guidance up, down, flat, as well as whether it can go up meaningfully from here. And maybe if you can touch on some dynamics here about the things that you touched on the call here, like wafer diameter increases here to the degree to which you have customers that are on contracts versus spot pricing, ASP trends, et cetera. If you could help us kind of delineate all that would be great. Thank you.

Gary，你在這裡提供了一些關於未來如何思考的說法。但我沒有足夠時間把你們的指引帶進模型裡跑一遍，看看可能會指向哪個水準。因此我很希望你能談談毛利率，特別是在你們指引所隱含的走勢（上升、下降或持平）的脈絡下，以及它是否還能從目前水準再有顯著上升。另外也請你談談一些你在電話會議中提到的動態，例如晶圓直徑提升、客戶是採合約定價還是現貨定價的比例、ASP 走勢等等。如果你能協助我們把這些因素梳理清楚就太好了。謝謝。

Yeah. We thought about this in advance, and I’m glad to make comments, and Tim and Morris are prepared to add a little more depth and color. As usual, the gross margin is hugely driven by volume, which we’ve always said, and it’s hugely driven by mix. By that, we mean that since indium phosphide is a profitable product for us, the more indium phosphide we have, the happier we are in terms of gross margin prospects. Those are the two baseline variables that are fundamental.

好的。我們事先就想過這個問題，我也很樂意做些說明，Tim 和 Morris 也準備補充更多深度與細節。一如往常，毛利率在很大程度上由出貨量驅動，我們一直都是這麼說的；同時也在很大程度上由產品組合驅動。我們的意思是，由於磷化銦對我們而言是高獲利產品，因此磷化銦占比越高，就毛利率前景而言我們就越開心。這兩項是最基本、也是最關鍵的變數。

Now, as we look at the recent developments, we’re also looking at productivity improvements. What I would say, and I have a manufacturing background, but good manufacturing companies should improve if volume goes up because you get a larger database, and you can use statistical process control from a larger database to modify your processes. Our business model is extremely intensive in terms of process technology and process steps. These higher volumes are helping us become more efficient. So that’s a third element besides volume and mix.

另外，從近期發展來看，我們也在關注生產力的提升。我想說的是——我有製造背景——優秀的製造型公司在產量提升時理應能改善，因為你會有更大的資料庫，並能用更大樣本的統計製程管制來調整製程。我們的商業模式在製程技術與製程步驟方面極為密集。更高的產量正在幫助我們提升效率。因此，除了出貨量與產品組合之外，這是第三個要素。

A fourth element that you also listed is customers moving to higher value, larger diameter substrates. What’s happening is that we have a history of migration. When Morris started the company, the wafer size for gallium arsenide and indium phosphide was 2 inches. Over the decades, we’ve migrated to 3-inch, 4-inch, and in the case of indium phosphide, we’re now moving to 6 inch.

第四個要素也是你提到的：客戶正轉向更高價值、更大直徑的基板。實際上，我們有一段長期的尺寸遷移歷史。當 Morris 創立公司時，砷化鎵與磷化銦的晶圓尺寸是 2 吋。經過數十年，我們已經遷移到 3 吋、4 吋，而在磷化銦方面，我們現在正邁向 6 吋。

As we move up, because there’s more real estate in a 4-inch than there is in a 3-inch, obviously the price goes up, but it just opens up a dynamic in which the customer expects the price to go up. They’re not surprised. Then it’s easy to agree on a fair price. The larger diameter substrates also have a higher ASP, which becomes another element. So 6-inch right now is not impacting much, but next year it will.

隨著我們往上走，因為 4 吋晶圓的可用面積比 3 吋更大，價格顯然會上升，但這也開啟了一種動態：客戶會預期價格上升。他們不會感到意外。因此就更容易就合理價格達成共識。較大直徑的基板也有更高的 ASP（平均售價），這成為另一個因素。所以目前 6 吋的影響還不大，但明年就會。

Let me have Tim and/or Morris fill in some of the blanks here.

我請 Tim 和／或 Morris 來補充一些細節。

Yeah. I want to add a few points on productivity as well. Morris mentioned that we’re moving to a new generation of crystal growth furnace. This has been brought out really for the development and manufacturing of 6-inch indium phosphide. What we’re seeing with this new technology is a significant increase in productivity as we move forward.

是的。我也想補充幾點關於生產力的看法。Morris 提到我們正在轉向新一代的晶體生長爐。這項設備其實是為了 6 吋磷化銦的研發與製造而導入的。我們從這項新技術看到的是，隨著我們往前推進，生產力會顯著提升。

It not only enables us to move more efficiently from 2-inch to 3-inch, and then 3-inch to 4, and eventually 6, but as we do that, it gives us much greater productivity in doing so. That’s going to help the gross margin significantly as we employ more and more of these new generation furnaces. It’s really going to set us apart from the competition and give us a massive lead on this technology.

它不僅讓我們能更有效率地從 2 吋轉到 3 吋、再從 3 吋轉到 4 吋，最終到 6 吋；而且在這個過程中，能帶來更高的生產力。隨著我們採用越來越多這些新一代爐台，這將顯著提升毛利率。這確實會讓我們與競爭對手拉開差距，並在這項技術上取得巨大的領先優勢。

Yeah. Let me add a point. I think one of the things which we saw a significant customer yesterday, and they were asking us, Tim, on the much better EPD requirement on their high-power laser. That is music to our ears. In other words, low EPD is our forte. If they have a higher requirement for lower EPD, then there’s less competition and there’s a premium to the price. That adds to our gross margin.

是的。我再補充一點。我想其中一件事是，我們昨天見了一位重要客戶，他們在詢問我們，Tim，關於他們高功率雷射對更低 EPD（蝕坑密度）的更高要求。這對我們來說是好消息。換句話說，低 EPD 是我們的強項。如果他們對更低 EPD 的要求更高，那競爭就更少，而且價格會有溢價。這會提升我們的毛利率。

Also is the larger diameter, a 6 inch. Of course, when we first were to ramp, we do expect productivity or yield to be low, but as we add more furnaces, we expect the yield improvement to expand significantly going forward.

另外還有更大直徑，也就是 6 吋。當然，在我們一開始爬坡量產時，我們預期生產力或良率會偏低，但隨著我們增加更多爐台，我們預期良率改善在未來會顯著擴大。

Lastly, but perhaps not very significant is the raw material prices going up significantly. We’re going to have some deduction on that side, but I think as you sum up all the other things that we’re gaining, our efficiency, productivity, low EPD, et cetera, it overwhelms the increase in our raw material cost.

最後一點，但可能不是很重要的是，原材料價格大幅上漲。這一端我們會有一些扣減（壓力），但我認為把我們在其他方面的收穫加總起來——效率、生產力、低 EPD 等等——足以抵消原材料成本上升的影響。

Richard, one more thing. I guess I would say, you and I have known each other for even longer than I’ve been in my 12 and a half years at AXT, but you probably never would expect me to say something like this on an open call, but I do think our gross margin will go up some more. I don’t think we’ve peaked, and I think it’s reasonable to expect that it could begin with a six in the next quarter. Not a high six, but all of the things that we just described in terms of efficiency and migration and sizes and things like that, it’s a work in progress and so it should have a natural effect.

Richard，還有一件事。我想我會說，你我認識的時間甚至比我在 AXT 這 12 年半還久；你可能從沒想過我會在公開電話會議上說這樣的話，但我確實認為我們的毛利率還會再上升一些。我不認為我們已經到頂了，而且我認為合理的預期是，下個季度可能就會以「6」開頭。不是很高的 6，但我們剛才描述的所有事情——效率、轉換、尺寸等——都還在進行中，因此應該會帶來自然的效果。

Okay. Thanks for all that perspective. Let me ask one more question, then I will jump on a line here, and that’s on capacity.

好的。謝謝你們提供這些觀點。我再問最後一個問題，然後我就切到另一條線上，問題是關於產能。

It sounds like you’ve had some great progress in expanding capacity faster than expected. You were asked a question on the last call about what your indium phosphide/ revenue potential will be exiting both this year and last year, and if I wrote down the numbers correctly -- where did I put those things? I forgot what they are, but I think they were maybe 60 and then 130 each of the next two years. Sounds like it’s a lot higher than that. Can you quote what your expected potential indium phosphide revenue capacity is exiting this year and next?

聽起來你們在擴充產能方面的進展比預期更快。在上次電話會議中，有人問到你們今年年底與明年年底退出時（exiting）磷化銦／營收潛力會是多少；如果我沒記錯——我把那些數字寫到哪裡去了？我忘了具體是多少，但我想可能是接下來兩年分別是 60，然後 130。聽起來實際上遠高於此。你們能否說明今年年底與明年年底退出時，預期的磷化銦營收產能潛力是多少？

Yeah, I can give some idea on that. It is a lot higher than we projected recently, of course. That’s in part because of this migration to larger wafer sizes. It’s also in part to an increase in ASPs. We’ve been building out an ASP plan as we move forward.

可以。我可以提供一些概念。當然，這比我們最近的預估高出很多。部分原因是我們正轉向更大尺寸的晶圓。另一部分原因是 ASP（平均售價）的提升。我們在往前推進的同時，也一直在建立一個 ASP 規劃。

In Q3, we recorded an indium phosphide revenue of $54.3 million. That’s probably going to go up in Q4. Total projection of Q4 being around the $90 million mark. I would anticipate that the split of indium phosphide. All of the growth is going to be indium phosphide. You should probably think about adding all of that additional onto indium phosphide. Then we’ll just see continued growth into next year.

在第三季，我們記錄的磷化銦營收為 5,430 萬美元。第四季很可能會再上升。第四季的總體預估大約在 9,000 萬美元左右。我預期磷化銦的占比——所有的成長都會來自磷化銦。你們大概可以把所有新增的部分都加到磷化銦上去思考。然後明年我們會看到持續成長。

Charles Shi, Needham.

Needham 的 Charles Shi。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Morris, Gary, and Tim, I think this is probably a high-level question, because from time to time, there are some chatters within the investment community. They have a view on where things are going, and the most recent thing seems to be that they are worried about AXT adding a good amount of capacity, and that could lead to overcapacity for indium phosphide substrates next year.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。Morris、Gary、Tim，我想這可能是一個較高層次的問題，因為投資圈不時會有一些傳聞。他們對趨勢走向有自己的看法，而最近的說法似乎是，他們擔心 AXT 增加了相當多的產能，可能會導致明年磷化銦基板產能過剩。

I am not sure if I buy that because it kind of mimics what we heard about HBM overcapacity into late 2024. That is a high-growth market, and supply is getting a little ahead. I do not think that really is a big worry.

我不確定我是否認同，因為這有點像我們聽到的：HBM 在 2024 年下半年可能產能過剩。那是一個高成長市場，供給確實稍微跑在前面。我不認為那真的會是很大的擔憂。

But you guys know the forecast, customer forecast. You guys have intelligence into what your competitors are doing. You guys know what you are doing, how much capacity is going to be added. Mind if you address this question here and provide us your insights on this whole supply-demand situation maybe into next year? Thank you.

但你們掌握預測、客戶預測。你們也掌握競爭對手在做什麼的情報。你們知道自己在做什麼、會增加多少產能。方便的話，能否請你們回應一下這個問題，並分享你們對整體供需狀況、可能延伸到明年的看法？謝謝。

Yeah. Hello, Charles. As we stand right now, we are significantly overbooked. All of our customers are on allocation. The market out there, every month we see additional growth. As we look at our capacity moving into '27 and then beyond into '28, the opportunities for us here and the demand for us outstrips any capacity that we can put in place. The demand is just growing faster than we can add capacity today.

好的。你好，Charles。就目前而言，我們的訂單量明顯超出可供承接的水位（overbooked）。我們所有客戶都在配額供貨（allocation）狀態。市場方面，我們每個月都看到額外的成長。當我們看向 2027 年、以及之後到 2028 年的產能時，我們在這裡的機會與需求都超過我們能建置的任何產能。需求成長的速度，就是比我們今天能增加產能的速度更快。

We’re seeing this, as we’ve pointed out, Morris has already pointed out, with long-term, multi-year agreements, short-term contracts of 12 months or less, and then spot orders. Again, every customer is on allocation right now. It is impossible to keep up with demand. Even long-term supply agreements that we’re having off of customers, we’re being asked to increase 2x or 3x.

我們看到這種情況，正如我們指出的、Morris 也已經指出的：有長期、跨多年的協議，也有 12 個月或更短的短期合約，然後還有現貨訂單。再說一次，目前每一位客戶都在配給（allocation）狀態。根本不可能跟上需求。即便是我們與客戶正在洽談的長期供應協議，客戶也要求我們把供應量提高到 2 倍或 3 倍。

The plans that we have to, again, quote, double our capacity in 2027, I’m not sure we’ll even get our head above water with 2027. I can tell you as far as competition goes, I believe that we are still the leaders out there. We are certainly one of the fastest to grow capacity on indium phosphide. But Morris has just made an excellent point, and we’ve been saying this for years.

我們的計畫是——再次引用——在 2027 年把產能加倍，但我不確定到了 2027 年我們是否甚至能稍微喘口氣。就競爭而言，我可以告訴你，我相信我們仍然是市場上的領導者。我們確實是磷化銦（indium phosphide）產能擴張速度最快的公司之一。但 Morris 剛剛提出了一個非常好的觀點，而我們多年來一直在說這件事。

Our low EPD substrates give us a massive value proposition advantage against our competition. As product moves towards high-power CW lasers and UHP lasers for scale out and scale up, low EPD, low defect density is absolutely essential for high laser bar yield and high reliability and AXT offers the world-class in that marketplace.

我們的低 EPD 基板，讓我們相較競爭對手擁有巨大的價值主張優勢。隨著產品走向高功率連續波（CW）雷射與用於 scale out 與 scale up 的超高功率（UHP）雷射，低 EPD、低缺陷密度對於高雷射棒（laser bar）良率與高可靠性是絕對必要的，而 AXT 在該市場提供世界級水準。

Customers are turning to us not only because we’re the fastest to build out capacity, they’re turning to us because our value proposition model is stronger than anyone else’s. Worries about adding capacity through next year, no, I don’t have any.

客戶轉向我們，不僅因為我們擴建產能的速度最快，也因為我們的價值主張模型比任何人都更強。至於對明年之前擴產的擔憂，不，我完全沒有。

Yeah. Well, let me add a few points. Let me give you an angle from the Chinese competitors. Indium phosphide substrate is really hot. Last I heard, there are a number of new entries in China market wants to get into indium phosphide substrates.

是的。那我補充幾點。我從中國競爭對手的角度給你一個看法。磷化銦基板真的非常熱門。我最近聽到的是，中國市場有不少新進者想要切入磷化銦基板。

But do I worry about them? I really don’t think I do. I tell you the reason. Indium phosphide is not an easy material to work with. We worked with it for 40 years, and we know how long it took us to grow from 2 inch to 3 inch, and that 3 inch gradually to 4, and we’re moving to 6. The EPD level, although it’s highly technical, but when we first enter into a major laser maker in the US market, their requirement of EPD is less than 500. Now we’re delivering less than one tenth of it. Okay?

但我會擔心他們嗎？我真的不這麼認為。我告訴你原因。磷化銦不是一種容易處理的材料。我們做了 40 年，我們知道從 2 吋長到 3 吋花了多久，而 3 吋再逐步到 4 吋，現在我們正往 6 吋前進。EPD 水準雖然非常技術性，但當我們第一次打入美國市場一家主要雷射製造商時，他們對 EPD 的要求是低於 500。現在我們交付的是不到其十分之一。好嗎？

I think those just takes time and really experience to advance. We’re not standing still, and we’re advancing. I think to give you more assurances, I think HBT or the storage device market, I believe doesn’t have as high an entry barrier as the indium phosphide is. Okay?

我認為這些都需要時間，並且真的需要經驗才能進步。我們並沒有停下來，我們正在持續精進。為了讓你更安心，我認為 HBT 或儲存裝置市場的進入門檻，沒有磷化銦這麼高。好嗎？

I think I’m reasonably confident about this, at least for the next two years. Three years out, it’s hard to say. But yesterday we were talking to a major customer of ours. They were telling us, instead of the market is to expand by 20x, they’re telling me actually it’s 1,000x. I don’t know how it comes to that, but it started with scale across, scale out, and scale in, and scale up. Every level is almost a 10x increase. Optical connectivity is at the heart of it. My answer is, I don’t think we’re going to reach that point. Ask me next year, perhaps, then we’ll worry about it, and hopefully we still don’t have to worry about it.

我對此相當有信心，至少在未來兩年。三年之後就很難說了。但昨天我們和一位主要客戶在談。他們告訴我們，市場不是擴張 20 倍，而是其實是 1,000 倍。我不知道怎麼會到那個數字，但它是從 scale across、scale out、scale in，以及 scale up 開始的。每一個層級幾乎都是 10 倍的增加。光學互連是核心。我的回答是，我不認為我們會到達那個程度。明年再問我，也許到時候我們才會擔心；也希望到時候我們仍然不需要擔心。

Yeah, let me summarize. We have a long look forward, and we pay attention to it. It’s visible all the way up to our board level. As CFO, I’m not at all worried about 2027 CapEx. I know it’s less than is going to be needed. I feel the same about 2028. Those two years, what we’re planning to spend, I think, is very reasonable, and I don’t think it’s going to be overspending. When we get closer to 2029, we need to look at that. We’re grown-ups on this stuff. We’re going to measure it and pay attention to it.

是的，我來總結一下。我們對未來有很長的展望，也會密切關注。這件事在我們董事會層級都是可見且被重視的。以 CFO 的角度，我對 2027 年的資本支出（CapEx）完全不擔心。我知道那會低於實際所需。對 2028 年我也有同樣的感受。我們計畫在那兩年投入的金額，我認為非常合理，也不覺得會是過度支出。當我們更接近 2029 年時，我們需要再檢視。我們在這方面是成熟的。我們會衡量並持續關注。

Thank you. Maybe I’ll ask a second question. If I heard you correctly, I think you announced a second supply agreement with Lumentum with the -- I forgot the exact amount, but going to Q2, you had another agreement. Is this a follow-on agreement, an expansion of the previous agreement or something else?

謝謝。也許我再問第二個問題。如果我沒聽錯的話，我想你們宣布了與 Lumentum 的第二份供應協議——我忘了確切金額，但到第二季（Q2）你們還有另一份協議。這是前一份協議的後續協議、擴充，還是其他性質？

Related to that, I think I heard you talking about backlog is now over $500 million. It was over $100 million, I think, a quarter ago. Probably 4x-ish, maybe 5x expansion of the backlog over the course of last maybe 90 days. Mind if you give a little bit color? Those are kind of related. That’s a two-part question. Thank you.

另外相關的，我想我聽到你們說目前在手訂單（backlog）已經超過 5 億美元。我記得大概一季前是超過 1 億美元。在過去大約 90 天內，在手訂單大概擴張了 4 倍左右、也許 5 倍。方便你提供一些補充說明嗎？這兩件事算是相關。這是一個兩段式問題。謝謝。

No, the Lumentum contract is the contract that we signed in Q3. It’s not a double up. It’s not a secondary. It is the one that was signed and announced earlier in Q3. We’re just reiterating that for the course of this conference call. As backlog goes, obviously, we mentioned before that we’re more than $100 million. We’re a little bit vague on exactly how much more than $100 million that we were, but now we’re happy to say that as we see growth, we’ve surpassed the $500 million barrier.

不，Lumentum 的合約就是我們在第三季（Q3）簽的那份合約，不是加倍。也不是第二份。就是那份在 Q3 早些時候簽署並對外宣布的合約。我們只是在這次電話會議中再次重申。至於在手訂單，顯然我們之前提過已經超過 1 億美元。我們當時對於「超過 1 億」到底多多少有點保留，但現在我們很高興地說，隨著我們看到成長，我們已經突破 5 億美元的門檻。

That’s made up of a number of things in terms of long-term supply agreements, again, short-term, 12 months or less supply agreements and spot POs that go through 2027. So really, that just gives us more encouragement and gives us more confidence that we’re seeing growth into the rest of 2026 and through into 2027 with some significant backlog there.

這是由多個部分構成的，包括長期供應協議、同樣也包括短期（12 個月或更短）的供應協議，以及一路延伸到 2027 年的現貨採購單（spot POs）。所以這確實讓我們更受鼓舞，也讓我們更有信心：我們看到成長會延續到 2026 年剩餘期間，並延伸到 2027 年，而且那裡有相當可觀的在手訂單。

I’ll make another noteworthy change here, and that’s the demand from China is increasing in a significant way. Historically, we’ve built and shipped for China because we don’t need permits. Again, everybody is now on allocation. We’re accepting backlog as we see this, but we’re also seeing a longer lead time, out nine plus months on a lot of this stuff. So of course, as we see longer lead times, we see more of these supply agreements, we see more demand coming this way. The backlog is just going to grow.

我在這裡還要做另一項值得注意的調整，那就是來自中國的需求正以顯著的幅度增加。過去，我們為中國生產並出貨，因為我們不需要許可證。再說一次，現在大家都處於配給狀態。在我們看到這種情況時，我們會接受積壓訂單，但我們也看到交期拉長，很多產品的交期已經延長到九個月以上。所以當然，隨著交期變長，我們看到更多這類供應協議，也看到更多需求往這個方向湧來。積壓訂單只會繼續增加。

Tim Savageaux, Northland Capital Markets.

Tim Savageaux，Northland Capital Markets。

Hey, good afternoon. Congrats on the results and outlook and especially on the backlog increase. First question, taking the discussion back to gross margins and where you can go there. Doing that math, I think you’re solidly into the 60s in terms of where you’re guiding.

嗨，午安。恭喜本季業績與展望，尤其是積壓訂單的增加。第一個問題，回到毛利率以及你們能達到的水準。我算了一下，我認為你們的指引顯示毛利率穩穩進入 60% 區間。

Your incremental gross margins in Q3 were 77%, which is pretty significant. Gary, I know you’re hesitant to talk about where these margins can go over time, but to the extent we were talking about lower levels just a few quarters ago, is it fair to look at that 60% level as a new baseline with upside potential, given what you’re seeing on incremental gross margins, or how are you looking at that now?

你們第三季的增量毛利率是 77%，這相當顯著。Gary，我知道你一向不太願意談長期毛利率能到哪裡，但考量到就在幾個季度前我們還在談較低的水準，是否可以把 60% 視為新的基準，且在你們看到的增量毛利率帶動下仍有上行空間？或者你現在怎麼看？

Well, it’s hard to comment. It gets into a vocabulary that’s so strange for me. We don’t want the horse to run away and get out of the racetrack and just be way ahead of us, but on our comments to you.

嗯，這很難評論。這會牽涉到一套對我來說很陌生的用語。我們不希望馬跑得太快、衝出跑道，結果在我們對你們的評論上反而被帶著走、落在後面。

It’s pretty obvious that we’re going to cross over 60%. I have to say, and I don’t mean it in a dodging way, but it’s fast moving change. We’re hesitant to predict because things are moving so fast.

很明顯我們會跨過 60%。我得說，我不是在閃躲，但變化非常快速。我們對做出預測有所保留，因為事情變動得太快。

Yeah. Let me add, perhaps, to this point, is the moving market. I tell you, this year, the fastest growth segment in 2026 was 3-inch. Next year, the high growth we expect is going to be 4-inch. That is more of a new territory. High power laser require low EPD, and again, that’s a new territory. 6-inch is going to be, although it’s still going to be single digits, for 2027, but it’s going to grow, and that’s going to command a good gross margin.

是的。我再補充一點：市場正在快速變動。我跟你說，今年在 2026 年成長最快的區塊是 3 吋。明年我們預期高成長會是 4 吋。那會是比較新的領域。高功率雷射需要低 EPD，而這同樣是新的領域。6 吋方面，雖然到 2027 年仍可能是個位數占比，但會成長，而且那將帶來不錯的毛利率。

Got it. Thanks. Looking at the revenues, the results, and the guidance, I know it seems like you’ve incorporated a significant portion of the long-term agreements in your backlog. I guess, if you look at Q3 and the guide for Q4, how significant a contributor are the initial ramps of those long-term agreements to what you saw in Q3 and are guiding for in Q4?

了解。謝謝。看營收、實際結果與指引，我知道看起來你們已把長期協議中的相當一部分納入積壓訂單。我想問的是，如果看第三季以及第四季指引，這些長期協議的初期放量，對你們第三季看到的表現以及第四季指引，貢獻有多大？

Yeah. We’re definitely starting to see some contributions coming from the long-term supply agreements in Q4. That will continue to build as we go into 2027. But I want to make a point in that when we talk about the long-term supply agreements, we don’t have a whole lot of them at the moment. They’re not a big part of our backlog.

是的。我們確實開始在第四季看到一些來自長期供應協議的貢獻，並且在邁向 2027 年的過程中會持續增加。但我想強調的是，當我們談到長期供應協議時，目前其實數量不多。它們在我們的積壓訂單中占比不大。

So although some of them extend out for several years, the multi-year LTSAs, still a relatively small part of our capacity as it goes forward. So, a lot of this is still being built up on spot purchase orders, annual contracts, that type of stuff, that, as I said before, our lead time is increasing, so it just keeps on adding to that backlog as we accept orders.

所以，雖然其中一些會延伸好幾年、屬於多年期 LTSA（長期供應協議），但就未來而言，它們在我們產能中的占比仍相對小。因此，很多業務仍是以現貨採購訂單、年度合約等形式累積；如我先前所說，我們的交期正在拉長，所以在我們接受訂單的同時，積壓訂單就會持續增加。

Tim, I would say that Tim and Morris and our VP of Asia, Suban, they kind of pull back on formal long-term agreements, and we don’t want to lock up in that way. So we’re maintaining flexibility. We are making commitments beyond 90 days or beyond six months, but we want to protect on price, and we also want to protect our ability to, if we can do more or do less, we don’t want to be locked in.

Tim，我會說 Tim、Morris，以及我們的亞洲副總 Suban，他們對正式的長期協議會稍微保守一些，我們不想用那種方式把自己鎖住。所以我們會維持彈性。我們確實會做出超過 90 天或超過六個月的承諾，但我們希望在價格上有所保障，也希望保留我們的調整能力——如果我們能做更多或做更少，我們不想被綁死。

So, the point is, we’re not going to be announcing multiple long-term agreements. There may be some more, and plenty of customers want us to sign up for them, but it’s not what we think is the right strategy for AXT.

所以重點是，我們不會宣布多筆長期協議。可能還會有一些，而且很多客戶希望我們簽，但我們認為那不是 AXT 正確的策略。

Understood. That was going to be my next question, so that’s good. Tim, you’re saying backlog is up $300 million or $400 million sequentially, that that is not majority or even materially driven by LTAs. That’s just kind of run rate business?

了解。那本來就是我的下一個問題，所以很好。Tim，你說積壓訂單季對季增加了 3 億到 4 億美元，而這並不是主要、甚至也不是顯著由 LTA（長期協議）所驅動。那基本上就是常態性業務的量？

Yeah, that's correct. That's run rate business.

是的，沒錯。那是常態性業務。

Yeah, that's extraordinary. Okay, I'll pass along.

是的，這太驚人了。好，我就先把時間讓給其他人。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝，Tim。

Matt Bryson, Wedbush Securities.

Matt Bryson，Wedbush Securities。

Hey, thanks for letting me ask a question, and congrats on a great quarter. I have one longer one and one quick one. For the longer one, it seems like low EPD in your ability to deliver larger substrates is a substantial advantage. Is there any more color you can give us around what portions of shipments might be 4 inch and above? Or if there’s a rule of thumb that we can think about in terms of either pricing or gross margin benefit that you get from shifting from 3 inch to 4 inch to 6 inch.

嗨，謝謝讓我提問，也恭喜你們交出很棒的一季。我有一個比較長的問題和一個快問快答。先說長的：看起來低 EPD 以及你們交付更大尺寸基板的能力，是一項很大的優勢。你能否再多提供一些資訊，說明出貨中大約有多少比例可能是 4 吋及以上？或者，有沒有一個經驗法則，讓我們用來理解從 3 吋轉到 4 吋、再到 6 吋時，在定價或毛利率上你們能獲得的好處？

And then, I guess, also part of that, what portion of your competitors are able to deliver 4 inch or 6 inch substrates at this point? Thanks.

另外我想也包含這一點：你們的競爭對手目前有多少比例能交付 4 吋或 6 吋基板？謝謝。

Yeah. Thanks, Matt. So, if you’re looking at pure wafer volumes, the majority of the business has transitioned to 3 inch. Now, a lot of the non-China business has been on 3 inch for a long time, and we’re seeing a lot of the Chinese business move up into the 3-inch wafer size.

好的，謝謝，Matt。所以如果你看的是純晶圓出貨量，大多數業務已經轉向 3 吋。另外，很多非中國的業務早就採用 3 吋了，而我們也看到許多中國的業務正在往 3 吋晶圓尺寸升級。

We saw a couple of years ago that we started to see a transition. We made an announcement that we were seeing a 4-inch substrate going into AI type data centers, and this was predominantly for photodetector material, which obviously we continue to see that. That’s been the market driver for 4 inch so far. And a lot of the photodetector material, especially the high speed photodetector material, is now firmly based on 4 inch.

我們在幾年前看到，我們開始看到一個轉變。我們曾發布公告表示，我們看到 4 吋基板開始進入 AI 類型的資料中心，而這主要用於光偵測器材料，顯然我們仍持續看到這個趨勢。到目前為止，這一直是 4 吋的市場驅動因素。而許多光偵測器材料，尤其是高速光偵測器材料，現在已穩固地以 4 吋為基礎。

What we’re going to see next year, and we’re starting to see that transition in Q3 and Q4 this year, is a lot of the laser material is now going to also transition to 4 inch. So in 2023 -- sorry, 2023. In 2026, a lot of the business is running on 3 inch for lasers, 4 inch for detectors.

我們明年將會看到的是——而我們今年的第三季與第四季已開始看到這個轉變——許多雷射材料現在也將轉向 4 吋。所以在 2023 年——抱歉，2023 年。在 2026 年，許多業務在雷射方面仍以 3 吋運行、在偵測器方面以 4 吋運行。

In 2027, we’re going to see a big shift as we go through the year, and I think towards the end of the year, we could be looking, if you’re looking at wafer volumes, just single wafer volumes, you could be looking at something equal in 3 inch and 4 inch by the end of the year. So this does give us a significant ASP boost. It also gives us a significant gross margin opportunity here as well.

在 2027 年，我們將在一年當中看到一個很大的轉變；我認為到年底，如果你看的是晶圓出貨量、也就是單片晶圓的量，到年底你可能會看到 3 吋與 4 吋的量大致相當。因此，這確實會為我們帶來顯著的 ASP（平均售價）提升。同時也為我們帶來顯著的毛利率機會。

What can our competitors deliver? It’s variable, right? A lot of them still are stuck predominantly on 3 inch. The move to 4 is, especially on the laser material and especially keeping the high quality, low defect material, is incredibly challenging. Morris said we’ve spent decades on building this up, and the move to 4 in itself is a huge challenge, let alone the move to 6.

我們的競爭對手能交付什麼？這是有差異的，對吧？他們很多仍主要卡在 3 吋。轉向 4 吋——尤其是在雷射材料上，並且要維持高品質、低缺陷的材料——是極具挑戰的。Morris 說我們花了數十年建立這些能力，而光是轉到 4 吋本身就是巨大的挑戰，更不用說轉到 6 吋。

I mentioned earlier that we’ve got this new furnace, this new crystal growth furnace. This gives us massive productivity improvements, not just on 6 inch. It’s not just there for 6. Gives us massive productivity improvements for 4-inch laser type material as well.

我先前提到我們有這座新爐台、這座新的晶體生長爐。這為我們帶來巨大的生產力提升，不僅是在 6 吋上。它不只是為了 6 吋而設。它也為 4 吋雷射類材料帶來巨大的生產力提升。

As we build out new furnaces, we’re going to be really heavily focused on putting the new design furnace in there with a real commitment on scaling from 3 inch to 4 inch and then to 6 inch beyond 2027. I think, as you look into 2027, we’re going to see a meaningful number coming from 4 inch, and you’re going to start to see 6 inch come on board, and I think we’re leading the game there.

當我們擴建新爐台時，我們會非常聚焦於導入這個新設計的爐台，並且真正承諾把規模從 3 吋擴到 4 吋，然後在 2027 年之後再進一步擴到 6 吋。我認為，當你看到 2027 年時，我們會看到相當可觀的數量來自 4 吋，同時也會開始看到 6 吋加入量產，我認為我們在那方面是領先的。

Yeah, I think one of Matt’s question we have not answered is how many competitor can provide 4 inch and 6 inch. I think 4 inch is a bit harder to answer, but I think 6 inch so far. Actually, I think we’re climbing very fast, right? But I think other than us, there’s a company called [S], and they are probably now equal to us, and the third is a very distant third.

是的，我想 Matt 的問題中有一個我們還沒回答：有多少競爭對手能提供 4 吋與 6 吋。我覺得 4 吋比較難回答，但就 6 吋而言，目前為止。其實，我認為我們爬升得非常快，對吧？但我認為除了我們之外，有一家公司叫做 [S]，他們現在大概與我們相當，而第三名則遠遠落後。

Yes. Yes, there are two main players at 6 inch.

是的。是的，在 6 吋方面有兩個主要玩家。

But one of the key points for us is we are adding a huge number of capacity all based upon 6 inch, and we are glad that it is going into pilot production now. Go ahead, Matt.

但對我們而言其中一個重點是，我們正在新增大量產能，而且全部都是以 6 吋為基礎；我們也很高興它現在正進入試產。請繼續，Matt。

Awesome. Thanks for all the color. I just have one other quick one. Going back to Richard’s question around capacity. I know initially, I think you guys had talked about being able to double indium phosphide capacity in 2027. Is that still roughly how we should be thinking about things that from Q4 '26 to Q4 '27, we should numbers roughly double?

太棒了。謝謝你們提供這麼多細節。我還有一個很快的問題。回到 Richard 關於產能的問題。我知道一開始我想你們曾提到，2027 年有能力把磷化銦產能翻倍。這仍大致是我們應該如何看待的嗎？也就是從 26 年第四季到 27 年第四季，我們應該預期數字大致翻倍？

The challenge is this. I think we’re going to be more than double in Q4 2026. If you take end of 2025 as one, we’re probably going to be at 2.75 or 3 at end of 2026, right? And I think right now our goal is to double again in 2027. Hopefully by mid-year, we can tell you we’re still ahead of the planning.

挑戰在於這樣。我認為到 2026 年第四季，我們會超過翻倍。如果以 2025 年底為 1，到 2026 年底我們大概會到 2.75 或 3，對吧？而我認為目前我們的目標是在 2027 年再翻倍一次。希望到年中時，我們可以告訴你們我們仍然超前於計畫。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Green for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在把電話交回給 Leslie Green 做結語。

Thanks, Tracy, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference and the Northland Growth Conference in December, as well as the Needham Growth Conference in January. We hope to see many of you there, and as always, please feel free to contact us if you would like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you in the near future.

謝謝你，Tracy，也謝謝各位參與我們的電話會議。我們將於 12 月參加 UBS 全球科技與 AI 大會以及 Northland Growth Conference，並於 1 月參加 Needham Growth Conference。希望能在那裡見到各位中的許多人；也一如既往，如果你想安排通話，請隨時與我們聯繫。我們期待在不久的將來與各位交流。

This concludes today’s call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位出席。您現在可以掛線。